After the Ken Griffey Jr. article last weekend, I received an email suggesting that the Hall of Fame case for Frank Thomas will be much more interesting and difficult than that for Griffey. This response, combined with Thomas and Jeff Bagwell reaching the 400 home run milestone this month and Eddie Murray's induction in the Hall of Fame today, motivated me to run a series of similar stats with an even more comprehensive analysis including not only The Big Hurt's standing among first basemen but also among all players.

A comparison of Frank vs. his peers at first base follows:

RATE STATS

ON BASE PERCENTAGE               OBP    
1    Lou Gehrig                 .447   
2    Frank Thomas               .432   
3    Jimmie Foxx                .428   
4    Jim Thome                  .414   
5    Jeff Bagwell               .414   
6    Hank Greenberg             .412   
7    John Olerud                .404   
8    Lu Blue                    .402   
9    Johnny Mize                .397   
10   Mike Hargrove              .396

Frank Thomas. Number two all time. Behind only Lou Gehrig. Enough said.

Lu Blue, you ask? No, that is not a typo. Blue really does rank eighth in OBP. He played most of his career with the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Browns and was a 1920s version of Mike Hargrove--a singles hitting first baseman with a good batting eye. Blue hit .300 in four of his first five years and had over 100 walks four times, including seasons with 126 and 127. According to Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, Blue is the #1 "percentage" 1B in history and the seventh best overall (at least among those players for whom complete data is available). The four indicators are fielding percentage compared to period and position norms; stolen base percentage; strikeout to walk ratio; and walk frequency in absolute terms.

OBP                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Frank Thomas               .092     .432     .340   
2    Lou Gehrig                 .086     .447     .361   
3    Jeff Bagwell               .075     .414     .339   
4    Jim Thome                  .073     .414     .342   
5    Jimmie Foxx                .070     .428     .358   
6    Mike Hargrove              .069     .396     .327   
7    John Olerud                .065     .404     .339   
8    Mark McGwire               .058     .394     .336   
9    Hank Greenberg             .056     .412     .356
10   Johnny Mize                .055     .397     .342

Number one. Ahead of Gehrig and everyone else.

SLUGGING AVERAGE                 SLG
1    Lou Gehrig                 .632   
2    Jimmie Foxx                .609   
3    Hank Greenberg             .605   
4    Mark McGwire               .588   
5    Frank Thomas               .568   
6    Jim Thome                  .567   
7    Johnny Mize                .562   
8    Jeff Bagwell               .551   
9    Dick Allen                 .534   
10   Mo Vaughn                  .526

Number five behind four of the greatest first basemen of all time. Let's see, #2 in OBP and #5 SLG. Is our appreciation starting to grow yet?

SLG                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Lou Gehrig                 .213     .632     .419   
2    Hank Greenberg             .193     .605     .412   
3    Jimmie Foxx                .192     .609     .417   
4    Mark McGwire               .174     .588     .414   
5    Johnny Mize                .171     .562     .391   
6    Dick Allen                 .152     .534     .382   
7    Frank Thomas               .145     .568     .423   
8    Jim Thome                  .136     .567     .431   
9    Jeff Bagwell               .130     .551     .421   
10   Willie McCovey             .125     .515     .390

ON BASE PLUS SLUGGING            OPS
1    Lou Gehrig                1.080   
2    Jimmie Foxx               1.038   
3    Hank Greenberg            1.017   
4    Frank Thomas              1.000   
5    Mark McGwire               .982   
6    Jim Thome                  .982   
7    Jeff Bagwell               .965   
8    Johnny Mize                .959   
9    Dick Allen                 .912   
10   Mo Vaughn                  .910

The bottom two players will surely be replaced by the current crop of first basemen (i.e., Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, and Jason Giambi) once they qualify.

OPS                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Lou Gehrig                 .299    1.080     .780   
2    Jimmie Foxx                .263    1.038     .775   
3    Hank Greenberg             .249    1.017     .768   
4    Frank Thomas               .238    1.000     .762   
5    Mark McGwire               .232     .982     .751   
6    Johnny Mize                .225     .959     .734   
7    Jim Thome                  .209     .982     .773   
8    Dick Allen                 .205     .912     .707   
9    Jeff Bagwell               .205     .965     .760   
10   Willie McCovey             .171     .889     .718

Number four and in pretty good company. Dick Allen is the only eligible player on the list not in the HOF.

TOTAL AVERAGE                     TA     
1    Lou Gehrig                1.228   
2    Jimmie Foxx               1.143   
3    Hank Greenberg            1.105   
4    Frank Thomas              1.100   
5    Jim Thome                 1.079   
6    Mark McGwire              1.068   
7    Jeff Bagwell              1.045   
8    Johnny Mize               1.005   
9    Dick Allen                 .930   
10   Dolph Camilli              .928

Interestingly, Bagwell, who has been referred to as Thomas' twin (same birthdate, virtually the same career stats, MVPs the same year, etc.) has been basically two or three places behind Thomas in every category. See Aaron Gleeman's and Ben Jacobs' outstanding articles on the Bagwell-Thomas similarities.

TOTAL AVERAGE                   DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Lou Gehrig                 .486    1.228     .742   
2    Jimmie Foxx                .411    1.143     .733   
3    Frank Thomas               .387    1.100     .713   
4    Hank Greenberg             .382    1.105     .723   
5    Mark McGwire               .370    1.068     .698   
6    Jim Thome                  .351    1.079     .728   
7    Jeff Bagwell               .332    1.045     .713   
8    Johnny Mize                .330    1.005     .675   
9    Dick Allen                 .298     .930     .632   
10   Dolph Camilli              .267     .928     .661

Has anyone noticed Jim Thome's name on all eight rate lists thus far? An objective evaluation would suggest that Thome has the potential of being regarded as one of the top ten first sackers of all time.

COUNTING STATS

TOTAL BASES                       TB     
1    Eddie Murray               5397   
2    Lou Gehrig                 5059   
3    Jimmie Foxx                4956   
4    Rafael Palmeiro            4698   
5    Tony Perez                 4532   
6    Fred McGriff               4309   
7    Willie McCovey             4219   
8    Harmon Killebrew           4143   
9    Orlando Cepeda             3959   
10   Steve Garvey               3941   
22   Frank Thomas               3445

At a conservative rate of 250-300 TB per year, Big Frank should be in ninth place by the end of 2004 with the potential of reaching the top five before he is through.

TOTAL BASES                     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Lou Gehrig                 1959     5059     3100   
2    Jimmie Foxx                1770     4956     3186   
3    Johnny Mize                1295     3621     2326   
4    Rafael Palmeiro            1132     4698     3566   
5    Hank Greenberg             1114     3142     2028   
6    Willie McCovey             1112     4219     3107   
7    Mark McGwire               1102     3639     2537   
8    Dick Allen                 1068     3379     2311   
9    Frank Thomas               1030     3445     2415   
10   Harmon Killebrew           1017     4143     3126

Thomas should move past Allen, McGwire, Willie McCovey, and Hank Greenberg in TB vs. the league, perhaps by the end of this year.

RUNS CREATED                      RC     
1    Lou Gehrig                 2367   
2    Jimmie Foxx                2225   
3    Eddie Murray               1919   
4    Rafael Palmeiro            1771   
5    Fred McGriff               1633   
6    Willie McCovey             1615   
7    Harmon Killebrew           1583   
8    Frank Thomas               1540   
9    Jeff Bagwell               1536   
10   Johnny Mize                1515

Once again, Thomas may reach the top five in RC by the end of this year.

RUNS CREATED                    DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Lou Gehrig                 1181     2367     1186   
2    Jimmie Foxx                1015     2225     1210   
3    Frank Thomas                709     1540      831   
4    Johnny Mize                 683     1515      832   
5    Mark McGwire                638     1504      866   
6    Jeff Bagwell                622     1536      914   
7    Willie McCovey              587     1615     1028   
8    Hank Greenberg              580     1346      766   
9    Rafael Palmeiro             553     1771     1218   
10   Harmon Killebrew            550     1583     1033

Number three all time among first basemen. What's not to like?

RUNS CREATED/GAME               RC/G    
1    Lou Gehrig                11.21   
2    Jimmie Foxx               10.25   
3    Hank Greenberg             9.65   
4    Frank Thomas               9.32   
5    Johnny Mize                8.98   
6    Jim Thome                  8.92   
7    Jeff Bagwell               8.47   
8    Mark McGwire               8.47   
9    Bill Terry                 7.65   
10   Dolph Camilli              7.54

Number four and solidly ahead of his closest challengers.

RUNS CREATED/GAME               DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Lou Gehrig                 5.59    11.21     5.62   
2    Jimmie Foxx                4.66    10.25     5.58   
3    Frank Thomas               4.29     9.32     5.03   
4    Hank Greenberg             4.15     9.65     5.50   
5    Johnny Mize                4.05     8.98     4.93   
6    Jim Thome                  3.72     8.92     5.20   
7    Mark McGwire               3.57     8.47     4.90   
8    Jeff Bagwell               3.42     8.47     5.05   
9    Dick Allen                 2.93     7.20     4.27   
10   Dolph Camilli              2.68     7.54     4.86

Whether measured in absolute or relative terms, Thomas is near the top in most categories. Gehrig and Foxx seem to be the only two 1B generally ahead of The Big Hurt in the important rate and counting stats.

ADDITIONAL STATS

HOMERUNS                          HR
1    Mark McGwire                583   
2    Harmon Killebrew            573   
3    Jimmie Foxx                 534   
4    Willie McCovey              521   
5    Eddie Murray                504   
6    Lou Gehrig                  493   
7    Rafael Palmeiro             490   
8    Fred McGriff                478   
9    Andres Galarraga            386   
10   Jeff Bagwell                380   
14   Frank Thomas                376

Bagwell and Thomas have already both moved ahead of Andres Galarraga this year. Both have the potential of hitting 500 HR, passing the Iron Horse in the process.

HOMERUNS                        DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Mark McGwire                405      583      178   
2    Jimmie Foxx                 403      534      131   
3    Lou Gehrig                  377      493      116   
4    Harmon Killebrew            362      573      211   
5    Willie McCovey              334      521      187   
6    Johnny Mize                 252      359      107   
7    Fred McGriff                248      478      230   
8    Rafael Palmeiro             242      490      248   
9    Hank Greenberg              240      331       91   
10   Eddie Murray                217      504      287   
14   Frank Thomas                203      376      173

RUNS                               R     
1    Lou Gehrig                 1888   
2    Jimmie Foxx                1751   
3    Eddie Murray               1627   
4    Rafael Palmeiro            1456   
5    Fred McGriff               1310   
6    Jeff Bagwell               1293   
7    George Sisler              1284   
8    Harmon Killebrew           1283   
9    Tony Perez                 1272   
10   Joe Kuhel                  1236   
16   Frank Thomas               1168

Thomas may never catch Bagwell or Rafael Palmeiro, but he should end up no worse than sixth in career runs scored.

RUNS                            DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Lou Gehrig                  754     1888     1134   
2    Jimmie Foxx                 594     1751     1157   
3    Jeff Bagwell                423     1293      870   
4    Dick Allen                  366     1099      733   
5    Frank Thomas                352     1168      816   
6    Johnny Mize                 327     1118      791   
7    Hank Greenberg              326     1051      725   
8    Mark McGwire                321     1167      846   
9    Harmon Killebrew            276     1283     1007
10   Will Clark                  274     1186      912

Thomas will pass Allen this year, putting him fourth.

RBI                              RBI    
1    Lou Gehrig                 1995   
2    Jimmie Foxx                1921   
3    Eddie Murray               1917   
4    Tony Perez                 1652   
5    Harmon Killebrew           1584   
6    Rafael Palmeiro            1575   
7    Willie McCovey             1555   
8    Fred McGriff               1503   
9    Jim Bottomley              1422   
10   Mark McGwire               1414   
17   Frank Thomas               1285

Despite ranking 17th before the start of the 2003 season, Thomas should easily move into the top ten in RBI sometime during 2004 and approach McCovey's seventh place standing by the end of 2005.

RBI                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Lou Gehrig                  950     1995     1045   
2    Jimmie Foxx                 849     1921     1072   
3    Harmon Killebrew            642     1584      942   
4    Willie McCovey              633     1555      922   
5    Mark McGwire                615     1414      799   
6    Johnny Mize                 604     1337      733   
7    Hank Greenberg              603     1276      673   
8    Tony Perez                  558     1652     1094   
9    Eddie Murray                555     1917     1362   
10   Frank Thomas                512     1285      773

* All statistics are through 2002. The career rate stats are based on a minimum of 5000 PA. Player positions are determined by career totals rather than by individual seasons.

Frank Thomas' Career Stats (through 2003):

YEAR        G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
CAREER	1795  6403 1221 1995  417  11 400 1341 1354 1036  32  .312  .430  .568  .998

Thomas' Seasonal Averages (per 162 games played):

YEAR        G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
11.08	 162   578  110  180   38   1  36  121  122   93   3  .312  .430  .568  .998

Black Ink: Batting - 21 (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 180 (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 48.5 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 160.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

Sources: sabermetric baseball encyclopedia, baseball-reference.com, and espn.com

Notes

I excluded Ernie Banks, Rod Carew, Stan Musial, and Pete Rose from these rankings. Banks actually played more games at first base than shortstop, but the irony is that he was a below-average hitter as a 1B and one of the greatest hitting SS ever. Carew played approximately half of his games at first base and half at second base. Relative to his position, Carew was more valuable as a 2B. Musial played more games at first base than left field or right field, but he played nearly twice as many games in the OF (when viewed as a single position) than 1B. Like Musial, Rose played more played games at first base than any other single position but substantially more games in the outfield on a combined basis. Plus, Rose enjoyed some of his best years as an OF (including arguably his two greatest in 1968 and 1969) and spent his declining years as a 1B.

Including or excluding these four players has very little, if any, bearing on Frank Thomas' ranking. Thomas has a higher career OBP, SLG, and OPS than all of them as well as a higher TA. In other words, his rate stats exceed those of these other players across the board. Thomas falls short in some of the counting stats, including times on base, total bases, and runs created, primarily due to a lower number of games played. However, Thomas stands a good chance of passing Carew in RC this year and TB next year, and he is already ahead of Banks in RC and may pass him in TB before he finishes his career. Relative to his league, Thomas surpasses all four in counting stats except Musial. As a result, it would be difficult to argue on behalf of Banks, Carew, or Rose ranking above Thomas even if you included them in the rankings.

Seven-Year Niche

Thomas has been mostly a DH since 1998, perhaps weakening his argument as a 1B. But he enjoyed seven of his eight greatest seasons as a 1B, all in consecutive years from 1991-1997. During that period, Thomas finished in the top four in OBP in the A.L. every year, leading the league four times; top six in SLG every year (including leading the league in 1994); top three in OPS and OPS+ every year (leading the league 4x and 3x, respectively); top four in TOB every year (leading 3x); top eight in TB every year; top seven in RBI every year; and top five in BB every year (including finishing on top four times). For those interested in run producing raw stats, Thomas also had 100 or more runs and RBI every year during this span. Furthermore, Big Frank won back-to-back MVPs in 1993 and 1994, an achievement that not even Barry Bonds has exceeded (at least not as yet).

If anyone thinks Thomas' period of dominance was too brief, consider this:

* Thomas ranks 6th among all players in career OBP
* Thomas ranks 13th among all players in career SLG
* Thomas ranks 9th among all players in career OPS and OPS+

OBP                              OBP    
1    Ted Williams               .482   
2    Babe Ruth                  .474   
3    Lou Gehrig                 .447   
4    Rogers Hornsby             .434   
5    Ty Cobb                    .433   
6    Frank Thomas               .432   
7    Jimmie Foxx                .428   
8    Barry Bonds                .428   
9    Tris Speaker               .428   
10   Eddie Collins              .424

Is that a who's who of baseball or what?

SLG                              SLG    
1    Babe Ruth                  .690   
2    Ted Williams               .634   
3    Lou Gehrig                 .632   
4    Jimmie Foxx                .609   
5    Hank Greenberg             .605   
6    Manny Ramirez              .599   
7    Barry Bonds                .595   
8    Mark McGwire               .588   
9    Joe DiMaggio               .579   
10   Rogers Hornsby             .577   
11   Mike Piazza                .576   
12   Larry Walker               .574   
13   Frank Thomas               .568

The above list serves as an introduction to Manny Ramirez' place in baseball history more than anything else. Larry Walker's 12th place ranking in OPS doesn't earn him a spot in the top 50 in OPS+ due to playing the majority of his home games at Coors Field, the most hitter friendly ballpark in major league history. With 5,000 plate appearances, Alex Rodriguez will most likely slide into the 10th position at the conclusion of this year and replace Rogers Hornsby as the only non-OF/1B in the top ten.

OPS                              OPS    
1    Babe Ruth                 1.164   
2    Ted Williams              1.116   
3    Lou Gehrig                1.080   
4    Jimmie Foxx               1.038   
5    Barry Bonds               1.023   
6    Hank Greenberg            1.017   
7    Rogers Hornsby            1.010   
8    Manny Ramirez             1.010   
9    Frank Thomas              1.000   
10   Mark McGwire               .982

Enjoy the moment, folks. Active players Bonds, Ramirez, and Thomas are three of the most prodigious sluggers in history. Period.

OPS+                           OPS+    
1    Babe Ruth                 207   
2    Ted Williams              190   
3    Lou Gehrig                179   
4    Barry Bonds               177   
5    Rogers Hornsby            175   
6    Mickey Mantle             172
7    Joe Jackson               170   
8    Ty Cobb                   167
9    Jimmie Foxx               163
     Frank Thomas              163
     Mark McGwire              163

This list says it all. OPS+ adjusts for era, league, and ballpark. Thomas has been 63% more productive than the average hitter, tying for ninth all time with fellow first basemen Jimmie Foxx and Mark McGwire. Only Gehrig ranks higher among 1B.

Any Further Questions?

If anyone is skeptical of the foregoing because they think Thomas' career is in major decline, check this:

* Thomas ranks in the top ten in the A.L. this year in OBP, SLG, OPS, TA, RC, HR, and BB.

The main reason why the casual fan believes Thomas is no longer one of the best hitters in baseball is because his batting average has fallen from a range of .308-.353 from 1991-1997 to .265-.328 from 1998-2003, including .277 this year. Of importance though is the fact that Thomas' power and ability to get on base via walks is about on par with his career level. To wit, The Big Hurt ranks second in the league this year in isolated power and secondary average. Accordingly, the only real change in his game is the greater number of singles that Thomas had earlier in his career versus the past few years.

Conclusion: It is highly probable that Thomas' rate stats will decline over time. As a result, his career ranking in those categories could slip a few notches between now and his retirement. However, Thomas will offset any slippage in his rate standings with improved counting stats over the course of his career. In any event, I think it could easily be argued that Thomas is one of the top 20 hitters in baseball history. Despite Thomas' shortcomings as a fielder and as a baserunner, if being one of the five best first basemen and 20 greatest hitters ever isn't worthy of Hall of Fame status, then they may as well shut down Cooperstown.