Don't Short A-Rod's All-Time Ranking
News Item: Alex Rodriguez hits home run #40 for the sixth year in a row, the second longest 40-HR streak ever. With another 40-HR campaign in 2004, Rodriguez will tie Babe Ruth at seven for the most consecutive seasons of 40 or more homers. Two weeks ago, I compared A-Rod's standing in baseball history among 27-year-olds and all-time home run sluggers (including mentioning the likelihood of reaching the above milestone). This week, the focus is on Alex The Great and how he rates among shortstops. A comparison of A-Rod vs. his peers at SS follows. Rate stats are based on a minimum of 4,000 plate appearances. The source for these lists is the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. RATE STATS, 1900-2002 OBP OBP 1 Arky Vaughan .406 2 Luke Appling .399 3 Honus Wagner .394 4 Johnny Pesky .394 5 Joe Sewell .391 6 Joe Cronin .390 7 Derek Jeter .389 8 Lou Boudreau .380 9 Alex Rodriguez .380 10 Barry Larkin .372 Working on a .394 OBP this year, A-Rod has passed Lou Boudreau on a real-time basis. Unless Derek Jeter falters, it may prove difficult for Rodriguez to move up on this list. Still, there is nothing pedestrian about ranking among the top ten all-time in a category that perhaps is Alex The Great's weakest. OBP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Arky Vaughan .068 .406 .338 2 Honus Wagner .067 .394 .328 3 Derek Jeter .047 .389 .342 4 Luke Appling .045 .399 .354 5 Johnny Pesky .045 .394 .349 6 Alex Rodriguez .038 .380 .342 7 Barry Larkin .036 .372 .336 8 Lou Boudreau .034 .380 .347 9 Julio Franco .034 .366 .332 10 Kid Elberfeld .032 .353 .321 A-Rod moves up to sixth when measured by the difference in his OBP vs. the league average. Arky Vaughan, perhaps the most underrated infielder of all time (at least up until the days of Bill James), sits atop the list for the second consecutive category. Parenthetically, I'm not really comfortable with Julio Franco as a shortstop given that he played fewer than half of his games at that position. However, he played more games there than anywhere else on the diamond, so shortstop it is. Franco was a good-hitting SS although he enjoyed his best years as a 2B. Julio ran well and had decent range as a middle infielder, but he also made a lot of errors. As a result, he has been a DH/1B almost exclusively from 1992-on. OBP RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 120 .394 .328 2 Arky Vaughan 120 .406 .338 3 Derek Jeter 114 .389 .342 4 Johnny Pesky 113 .394 .349 5 Luke Appling 113 .399 .354 6 Alex Rodriguez 111 .380 .342 7 Barry Larkin 111 .372 .336 8 Julio Franco 110 .366 .332 9 Kid Elberfeld 110 .353 .321 10 Lou Boudreau 110 .380 .347 The five shortstops above Rodriguez rank ahead of him in all three OBP measurements. Among players eligible for the Hall of Fame, only Johnny Pesky is on the outside looking in. Pesky lost three full years to World War II, which probably cost him 600 hits and the opportunity to exceed 2,000 for his career. According to Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, Pesky's 1942 season was the best ever by a rookie shortstop. He finished third in the MVP voting that year, went off to war, and then returned in 1946 and was fourth in the MVP voting. Norman Elberfeld, who ranks in the top ten in OBP relative to the league based on difference and ratio, played from 1898-1914. Elberfeld, nicknamed "The Tabasco Kid" for his fiery play, was 5'7", 158 pounds and led the league in HBP twice. SLG SLG 1 Alex Rodriguez .579 2 Ernie Banks .500 3 Honus Wagner .468 4 Joe Cronin .468 5 Derek Jeter .463 6 Vern Stephens .460 7 John Valentin .454 8 Arky Vaughan .453 9 Jose Valentin .448 10 Barry Larkin .448 Everyone knows that power is A-Rod's strong suit, and he ranks number one in career slugging percentage among shortstops. Rodriguez is slugging at a .600 clip this year and is adding to his huge lead over Ernie Banks, who captured back-to-back MVPs in 1958 and 1959 even though the Cubs had losing records and ended up in fifth place both years. Ironically, A-Rod seems to have been penalized by voters the past couple of years for playing on a team with a losing record. If the trend continues, Rodriguez could end up being one of the best players in the history of baseball never to win an MVP Award. If I relaxed the number of plate appearances from 4,000 to 3,000, Nomar Garciaparra would place second in slugging percentage. Garciaparra had a SLG of .562 entering the 2003 season and is roughly maintaining that level this year. Upon retirement, A-Rod and Nomar stand an excellent chance of being 1-2 in SLG. SLG DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Alex Rodriguez .144 .579 .434 2 Honus Wagner .122 .468 .346 3 Ernie Banks .097 .500 .402 4 Vern Stephens .078 .460 .382 5 Arky Vaughan .064 .453 .390 6 Joe Cronin .051 .468 .417 7 Rico Petrocelli .045 .420 .375 8 Cal Ripken .036 .447 .411 9 Robin Yount .036 .430 .394 10 Barry Larkin .035 .448 .412 Once again, A-Rod ranks number one in the slugging department, heading a list of mostly Hall of Famers and HOFers to be. Only Vern Stephens and Rico Petrocelli, two of the many great Boston Red Sox shortstops over the years, never made it to Cooperstown. Stephens placed in the top ten in the A.L. MVP voting six times during the 1940s in an era that featured Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau, Johnny Pesky, and Phil Rizzuto as rival shortstops. SLG RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 135 .468 .346 2 Alex Rodriguez 133 .579 .434 3 Ernie Banks 124 .500 .402 4 Vern Stephens 120 .460 .382 5 Arky Vaughan 116 .453 .390 6 Joe Cronin 112 .468 .417 7 Rico Petrocelli 112 .420 .375 8 Robin Yount 109 .430 .394 9 Cal Ripken 109 .447 .411 10 Barry Larkin 109 .448 .412 A-Rod slips to second based on the ratio of slugging percentage to the league average. Honus Wagner slugged a remarkable .468 during the Dead Ball era when the league average was only .346 and the positional average was .321. OPS OPS 1 Alex Rodriguez .958 2 Honus Wagner .862 3 Arky Vaughan .859 4 Joe Cronin .857 5 Derek Jeter .852 6 Ernie Banks .830 7 Barry Larkin .820 8 Vern Stephens .815 9 John Valentin .814 10 Joe Sewell .804 A-Rod shows his absolute prowess in OPS similar to SLG. Nomar, at .937, would rank second if he met the minimum number of plate appearances. Rodriguez is increasing his lead this year with a .993 SLG, while Nomar is holding his own at .923. Joe Sewell was a 21-year-old rookie when he replaced Ray Chapman as the Cleveland Indians shortstop in 1920 after the latter was killed by a pitched ball. Sewell committed 15 errors in only 22 games that first season, then made six more in the World Series. Sewell, who was the most difficult man to strike out in baseball history by far (fanning once every 63 AB), had more than seven time as many walks as strike outs in his career. OPS DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner .189 .862 .674 2 Alex Rodriguez .182 .958 .776 3 Arky Vaughan .132 .859 .728 4 Ernie Banks .098 .830 .732 5 Vern Stephens .087 .815 .728 6 Joe Cronin .083 .857 .775 7 Derek Jeter .075 .852 .776 8 Barry Larkin .072 .820 .748 9 Lou Boudreau .061 .795 .734 10 Rico Petrocelli .055 .752 .697 Wagner overtakes Rodriguez when it comes to OPS minus the league average, but A-Rod is within striking distance of The Flying Dutchman. OPS RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 128 .862 .674 2 Alex Rodriguez 123 .958 .776 3 Arky Vaughan 118 .859 .728 4 Ernie Banks 113 .830 .732 5 Vern Stephens 112 .815 .728 6 Joe Cronin 111 .857 .775 7 Derek Jeter 110 .852 .776 8 Barry Larkin 110 .820 .748 9 Lou Boudreau 108 .795 .734 10 Rico Petrocelli 108 .752 .697 Wagner makes it three-for-three on all three major rate stats (OBP, SLG, OPS) when it comes to the ratio vs. the league average. By comparison, Rodriguez ranks sixth, second, and second, respectively. Attention future Hall of Fame voters: There are only four SS who rank in the top ten in all three of these measurements--Wagner, Rodriguez, Vaughan, and...Barry Larkin. TOTAL AVERAGE TA 1 Alex Rodriguez 1.005 2 Honus Wagner .957 3 Arky Vaughan .892 4 Joe Cronin .859 5 Derek Jeter .858 6 Barry Larkin .836 7 John Valentin .785 8 Joe Sewell .778 9 Luke Appling .774 10 Vern Stephens .765 Once again, A-Rod jumps to the top of the pack when it comes to absolute levels (in this case Total Average). Rodriguez is extending his lead this year with a TA of 1.063 through the end of August. Wagner and Vaughan, the only other shortstops to rank number one in any of the rate stat categories, follow at two and three. Given that John Valentin made his mark just prior to today's big, powerful shortstops, it is easy to forget how good his career year was in 1995 when he finished 9th in the MVP voting as a result of hitting .298/.399/.533 with 27 HR, 20 SB, and more than 100 runs and 100 RBI in only 135 games. TOTAL AVERAGE DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner .309 .957 .648 2 Alex Rodriguez .273 1.005 .732 3 Arky Vaughan .229 .892 .663 4 Barry Larkin .138 .836 .699 5 Joe Cronin .127 .859 .732 6 Derek Jeter .126 .858 .732 7 Ray Chapman .108 .750 .643 8 Vern Stephens .104 .765 .660 9 Lou Boudreau .080 .748 .667 10 George Davis .077 .701 .624 A-Rod slides to number two based on the difference between TA and the league average. Wagner, Rodriguez, and Vaughan are 1-2-3 and well ahead of the rest of the pack. George Davis, whose career spanned the late 1800s and the early 1900s, had his best year before the modern era. In 1897, Davis hit .353 with 31 doubles, 10 triples, and 10 home runs, along with 65 stolen bases, 112 runs scored, and a league-leading 136 RBI. Davis wasn't elected to the HOF until 1998 when the Veterans Committee finally saw fit to enshrine the switch-hitting great from a bygone era. TOTAL AVERAGE RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 148 .957 .648 2 Alex Rodriguez 137 1.005 .732 3 Arky Vaughan 135 .892 .663 4 Barry Larkin 120 .836 .699 5 Joe Cronin 117 .859 .732 6 Derek Jeter 117 .858 .732 7 Ray Chapman 117 .750 .643 8 Vern Stephens 116 .765 .660 9 George Davis 112 .701 .624 10 Rico Petrocelli 112 .702 .625 The top eight players remain in the same order, giving a pretty good indication of their relative TA merits--no matter how it's measured. BPA BPA 1 Alex Rodriguez .623 2 Honus Wagner .582 3 Joe Cronin .530 4 Arky Vaughan .530 5 Derek Jeter .525 6 Barry Larkin .523 7 Ernie Banks .513 8 Jose Valentin .509 9 John Valentin .496 10 Ray Chapman .490 Surprise, surprise. Rodriguez finds himself in first place in another absolute rate stat (Bases per Plate Appearance). The Texas Rangers SS is widening the gap between himself and Wagner with a league-leading BPA of .673 this year. Joe Cronin edges out Vaughan for third place. BPA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Alex Rodriguez .147 .623 .476 2 Honus Wagner .145 .582 .437 3 Arky Vaughan .097 .530 .432 4 Ernie Banks .075 .513 .438 5 Barry Larkin .064 .523 .459 6 Vern Stephens .060 .489 .429 7 Ray Chapman .057 .490 .433 8 Joe Cronin .055 .530 .475 9 Derek Jeter .049 .525 .476 10 Rico Petrocelli .041 .458 .417 Rodriguez maintains a slim advantage over Wagner in BPA minus the league average. BPA RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 133 .582 .437 2 Alex Rodriguez 131 .623 .476 3 Arky Vaughan 122 .530 .432 4 Ernie Banks 117 .513 .438 5 Vern Stephens 114 .489 .429 6 Barry Larkin 114 .523 .459 7 Ray Chapman 113 .490 .433 8 Joe Cronin 112 .530 .475 9 Derek Jeter 110 .525 .476 10 Rico Petrocelli 110 .458 .417 Wagner returns to his customary #1 spot when it comes to ratios, a sign that he was slightly more dominant vs. the players from his era than his closest pursuer 100 years later. RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G 1 Honus Wagner 8.31 2 Alex Rodriguez 8.16 3 Arky Vaughan 7.61 4 Derek Jeter 6.92 5 Joe Cronin 6.81 6 Barry Larkin 6.34 7 Luke Appling 6.26 8 Joe Sewell 6.03 9 Johnny Pesky 5.98 10 Vern Stephens 5.93 Wagner, Rodriguez, Vaughan. A-Rod is improving his career average this year at 8.58 RC/G. RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 3.85 8.31 4.46 2 Alex Rodriguez 2.93 8.16 5.23 3 Arky Vaughan 2.75 7.61 4.86 4 Derek Jeter 1.68 6.92 5.24 5 Barry Larkin 1.46 6.34 4.88 6 Joe Cronin 1.24 6.81 5.57 7 Vern Stephens 1.15 5.93 4.78 8 Johnny Pesky 1.05 5.98 4.93 9 Ernie Banks 0.98 5.56 4.59 10 Luke Appling 0.94 6.26 5.32 This is a recording. Wagner, Rodriguez, Vaughan. RUNS CREATED/GAME RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 186 8.31 4.46 2 Arky Vaughan 156 7.61 4.86 3 Alex Rodriguez 156 8.16 5.23 4 Derek Jeter 132 6.92 5.24 5 Barry Larkin 130 6.34 4.88 6 Vern Stephens 124 5.93 4.78 7 Joe Cronin 122 6.81 5.57 8 Johnny Pesky 121 5.98 4.93 9 Ernie Banks 121 5.56 4.59 10 Lou Boudreau 119 5.81 4.90 Wagner, Vaughan, Rodriguez this time. Almost tripped me up there. CUMULATIVE STATS, 1900-2002 TOTAL BASES TB 1 Cal Ripken 5168 2 Robin Yount 4730 3 Ernie Banks 4706 4 Honus Wagner 4228 5 Joe Cronin 3546 6 Luke Appling 3528 7 Luis Aparicio 3504 8 Alan Trammell 3442 9 Rabbit Maranville 3423 10 Barry Larkin 3290 With 2845 TB (and counting), Rodriguez should pass Cronin for fifth place by the end of 2005 when he will be just 30 years old. Cal Ripken goes to the head of the class when it comes to career total bases. Ripken failed to make the top ten on any of the above absolute rate stats although he placed 8th and 9th in the two SLG categories relative to the league. His cumulative stats and peak production rank among the best, but he was no better than an average hitter the last ten years of his career (except for 1999 when he hit .340/.368/.584). Cal's longevity helped his counting stats immensely, but it hurt him in the area of rate stats. TOTAL BASES DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 1400 4228 2828 2 Ernie Banks 977 4706 3729 3 Alex Rodriguez 729 2535 1806 4 Vern Stephens 603 2991 2388 5 Arky Vaughan 589 3003 2414 6 Robin Yount 537 4730 4193 7 Nomar Garciaparra 514 1771 1257 8 Cal Ripken 503 5168 4665 9 Joe Cronin 421 3546 3125 10 Barry Larkin 370 3290 2920 A-Rod should pass Banks for second place by the end of 2004 or early 2005. If, and when, he catches Wagner will depend upon his health and his future production. Garciaparra should catapult into fourth place by the end of this season. TOTAL BASES RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 149 4228 2828 2 Alex Rodriguez 140 2535 1806 3 Ernie Banks 121 4706 3729 4 Vern Stephens 125 2991 2388 5 Arky Vaughan 124 3003 2414 6 Derek Jeter 114 2031 1788 7 Joe Cronin 113 3546 3125 8 Robin Yount 113 4730 4193 9 Barry Larkin 113 3290 2920 10 Rico Petrocelli 112 2263 2013 The top five names remain the same, but this time A-Rod is already ahead of Banks. RUNS CREATED RC 1 Honus Wagner 2011 2 Cal Ripken 1709 3 Robin Yount 1644 4 Luke Appling 1511 5 Ernie Banks 1496 6 Joe Cronin 1448 7 Arky Vaughan 1331 8 Barry Larkin 1298 9 Alan Trammell 1246 10 Joe Sewell 1218 With 1097 RC (and counting), A-Rod should enter the top ten sometime during the second half of 2004. He is on pace to pass Ripken by the time he reaches his early 30s and stands a good chance of catching Wagner before his playing days are through. RUNS CREATED DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 933 2011 1078 2 Arky Vaughan 482 1331 849 3 Alex Rodriguez 350 975 625 4 Barry Larkin 298 1298 1000 5 Joe Cronin 263 1448 1185 6 Ernie Banks 260 1496 1236 7 Robin Yount 258 1644 1386 8 Luke Appling 226 1511 1285 9 Nomar Garciaparra 222 656 434 10 Vern Stephens 207 1070 863 The top three names should be familiar to all of us by now. A-Rod may pass Vaughan by the end of next year, but he has a long ways to go to reach Wagner (who ranks 14th all time in the modern era and 11th if one also includes his pre-1900 stats). RUNS CREATED RATE PLAYER LEAGUE 1 Honus Wagner 187 2011 1078 2 Arky Vaughan 157 1331 849 3 Alex Rodriguez 156 975 625 4 Derek Jeter 132 818 619 5 Barry Larkin 130 1298 1000 6 Vern Stephens 124 1070 863 7 Joe Cronin 122 1448 1185 8 Johnny Pesky 121 776 639 9 Ernie Banks 121 1496 1236 10 Robin Yount 119 1644 1386 Wagner, Vaughan, Rodriguez with A-Rod once again within earshot of second but quite a distance from first. RCAA RCAA 1 Honus Wagner 938 2 Arky Vaughan 478 3 Alex Rodriguez 347 4 Robin Yount 284 5 Barry Larkin 274 6 Joe Cronin 243 7 Luke Appling 239 8 Nomar Garciaparra 217 9 Derek Jeter 213 10 Ernie Banks 207 Wagner, Vaughan, and Rodriguez sit atop the all-important stat of runs created above average. Garciaparra has leapfrogged Appling and Cronin into sixth place this year and may become worthy of junior partner status in the law firm of Wagner, Vaughan, and Rodriguez by scaling the heights into fourth by the end of 2004. RCAP RCAP 1 Honus Wagner 981 2 Arky Vaughan 598 3 Barry Larkin 478 4 Joe Cronin 432 5 Alex Rodriguez 419 T6 Robin Yount 408 T6 Cal Ripken 408 8 Luke Appling 377 9 Alan Trammell 365 10 Joe Sewell 348 Rodriguez falls to fifth place and Larkin rises to third in runs created above position because this stat compares a player vs. the specific league rather than the overall majors. As a whole, A-Rod's competition has been more difficult within his league (given the presence of Garciaparra, Jeter, and Miguel Tejada) than Larkin (Jay Bell, Jeff Blauser, and Ozzie Smith). Nonetheless, Alex The Great should surpass Larkin by the end of this year or perhaps early next year. I have also included the top ten for those who like the Baseball Prospectus stat of Equivalent Average (EqA). EqA is a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average with a level of .260 the norm. EQUIVALENT AVERAGE EQA 1 Honus Wagner .321 2 Alex Rodriguez .320 3 Nomar Garciaparra .313 4 Arky Vaughan .312 5 Derek Jeter .302 6 George Davis .294 7 Lou Boudreau .293 8 Barry Larkin .292 9 Joe Cronin .291 10 Robin Yount .288 Given the importance of defense at the shortstop position, I would be remiss if I didn't discuss this aspect of the equation. No matter whether one uses the raw fielding stats (such as assists, putouts, double plays, and range factor), fielding runs as determined by Total Baseball, or the more sophisticated stats used by Baseball Prospectus or those incorporated into Win Shares and Zone Ratings, it doesn't change the fact that a great-hitting, average-fielding shortstop is still better than an average-hitting, great-fielding shortstop. In other words, I would take Ernie Banks at his peak over Ozzie Smith at his peak. As best as I can determine, the following lists rank the premier fielding shortstops by the more advanced metrics. FIELDING RUNS ABOVE REPLACEMENT FRAR 1 Bill Dahlen 1094 2 Rabbit Maranville 927 3 Honus Wagner 916 4 Ozzie Smith 887 5 Bobby Wallace 867 6 Joe Tinker 847 7 George Davis 844 8 Cal Ripken 766 9 Luis Aparicio 745 10 Mark Belanger 708 To score well here, players need to be strong defensively and benefit from long careers. For what it's worth, A-Rod stood at 252 prior to the 2003 season. FIELDING RUNS ABOVE AVERAGE FRAA 1 Bill Dahlen 354 2 Joe Tinker 338 3 Ozzie Smith 325 4 Mark Belanger 302 5 Art Fletcher 271 6 Honus Wagner 258 7 Bobby Wallace 242 8 George McBride 232 9 Marty Marion 224 10 George Davis 222 This defensive stat is similar to the one above except with a higher hurdle rate (vs. an average player rather than a replacement level player). A-Rod came into the current season with 19, meaning that he was slightly above average defensively at shortstop for his career. RATE 1 Joe Tinker 118 2 Art Fletcher 117 3 Mark Belanger 116 4 Bill Dahlen 116 5 Dal Maxvill 116 6 Marty Marion 115 7 Lou Boudreau 114 8 George McBride 114 9 Everett Scott 114 10 Ozzie Smith 113 The Baseball Prospectus "Rate" stat is another way to look at the fielder's rate of production. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc. A-Rod's rate stat is 102 or two runs above average per 100 games. Lastly, shortstops who received letter grades of "A+" by Bill James according to Defensive Win Shares (in alphabetical order): Mark Belanger A-Rod was rated "C+" by James through the 2000 season in his Win Shares book. A-Rod's defense has improved since then and would probably rate a "B-" today. There are very few players who appear in the top ten in various offensive and defensive rankings. Given that Honus Wagner ranks number one the most times offensively and is generally regarded as among the top ten defensive shortstops of all time, I believe it follows that John Peter Wagner is the best shortstop ever. Top Ten Here is Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT's top ten shortstops of all time (minimum of 10 or more seasons): 1. Honus Wagner 2. Alex Rodriguez 3. Arky Vaughan 4. Cal Ripken 5. Robin Yount 6. Ernie Banks 7. Barry Larkin 8. Joe Cronin 9. Lou Boudreau 10. Luke Appling I feel strongly about the order of my top four, and I believe the other six are worthy of being named in the top ten. However, I don't have strong convictions about the order of the last three (SS from the 1930s and 1940s whose careers overlapped). Just Missed: Pee Wee Reese, Joe Sewell, Ozzie Smith, and Alan Trammell. Luis Aparicio, Jim Fregosi, and Maury Wills were the best shortstops between Banks and Yount. Aparicio and Wills were renowned for stealing bases more than anything else with the former leading the A.L. every year from 1956-1964 and the latter topping the N.L. annually from 1960-1965. Stolen bases were worth more in the lower run-scoring environment but still are generally overrated when it comes to evaluating the merits of players. Does Alex Rodriguez have a chance of becoming number one? Yes, if A-Rod can maintain today's level of productivity for another 7-8 years, he may wind up supplanting the immortal Honus Wagner as the best offensive shortstop of all time. Whether Rodriguez can overtake Wagner as the most complete SS is debatable. In any event, Alex The Great will most likely end up no worse than the second best SS ever and, quite possibly, the number one home run hitter among all players in terms of cumulative totals. |