Since yesterday’s glowing report on Jon Lester was the best thing to happen to lefties this week, I have decided to spend today focusing on left-wingers. I know, I wouldn’t expect me to talk about that either, as it has been a long time since I touched on this group. But, I can’t write about hitters forever, and figured that southpaws deserved a piece.

To my surprise, a look into left-handed pitchers in the minor leagues led me to a rather deep position, with a lot of solid arms. I’m not sure how high a leftie will be on my rankings, but I know that once you get farther into the list, they’ll appear quite often.

And I should mention, that for the purpose of this article, I did not include 2004 draftees, which are a deep bunch with Bill Bray, Gio Gonzalez, Glen Perkins, etc. I also didn’t include Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis, as well as Adam Loewen, who I would not even know how to rank.

After mentioning all the depth stuff, I should say that there is a clear-cut top two players on top of the heap: Scott Olsen and Cole Hamels. While there should not be a lot of debate that Olsen is the best arm, I do think that Baseball America/other prospect sources might overrate him a bit. While his 10.43 K/9 is great, I’m less than impressed by a 3.50 BB/9 and mediocre 8.38 H/9. Finally, in what Baseball Prospectus has rated as a pitcher’s park, Olsen allowed 8 home runs in 136.1 innings, not a ton, but still a bit too much.

Olsen is the typical power pitcher, with a big 6-4 frame that could be built for even more. He needs to cut down that walk rate a bit, and his H/9 needs to come down to be a top pitching prospect in my book. His stuff, along with one great peripheral puts him at #1, everything else is purely marginal.

To be hyping Hamels this offseason would simply be beating the same drum we wrote last season. The southpaw pitched a total of 24 innings this season, four fantastic seasons in the Florida State League. His changeup is still presumably fantastic, and his intelligence while pitching has likely remained the same. Health is really the only thing that will hold him back, though that does remain a concern. I’ll promise you that before releasing any overall rankings, I will make Will Carroll get on the phone with his Philly hook-ups.

Following the top two players, there is a small, three-person battle for the third position. Candidate #1, the eldest, is Dan Meyer. His stuff is not going to amaze you, but I see Mark Redman, version 2.0. Both were first-rounders after their Junior seasons, with Redman a bit more highly thought of. But Meyer’s 2.73 ERA is far and away better than the 5.22 that Redman put up. Let’s just say the Pacific Coast League did not treat Redman well.

Second on the three-person ballot is Chuck Tiffany, who closed out the season stop Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball America Prospect Report. I love players who close out the season well, and that will definitely help Tiffany and Adam Miller when it comes time for me to make my rankings. His 3.70 ERA, and a HR/9 near 1 are both bad numbers, but his K/9 is over 12.00, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is about 3.50. He reminds me of Scott Olsen, and should have similar numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

The third and final candidate is the player always referred to as “the poor man’s Scott Kazmir.” What does this mean? Texan, short, big fastball, decent slider, hardly guaranteed to stick in the rotation. After dominating the Midwest League, the California League handed Danks a H/9 over 10.00, and a K/BB under 1.00. That’s not good. Poor man’s Kazmir sounds right after all.

Right about now, you are probably thinking, “Whatever happened to that awesome left-handed pitching prospect from last year? The one that came from nowhere?” Oh, thought I forgot about Greg Miller, did ya? No, of course not. I’m not one to gauge injuries very well, but I did believe in Miller a lot up to last February. The reports from Instructional League were that Miller looked good, so he’s probably next on this list. If he can get back just part of what he used to be, he has the talent to be a lot higher.

Only Dan Meyer has been the traditional “soft-throwing” left-handed pitcher that is often characterized in prospect lists. The next two will add a couple to that list: Mike Hinckley and Zach Duke. I’ve been a Hinckley fan for a while now, and his solid season fits right into the plans I had for him. He should be slotted in to the Washington Greys rotation by 2006, with a chance of even become a card-carrying member in 2005.

As for Duke, he had the season that no one could have guessed, the ERA under 2.00, good for first in the minor leagues. His success is perplexing, but it’s there. His BB/9 was under 2.00 all season, and he allowed just five home runs all season (including 2 in 51.1 Eastern League innings). It’s hard for me to judge his performance, but I do think there is something to the fact that Duke’s minor league career looks far better than Sean Burnett’s did. And that is high praise. But the Pirates should remember- and Burnett is proof- that even soft throwers can hurt their arms.

At this point we’ve hit another drop off, with a bunch of throwers below. First, I’ll read the rest of the top 15 as I have it: Francisco Liriano, Jake Stevens, Jon Lester, Mike Megrew, Bill Murphy, Sean Marshall, Justin Jones.

I should say that I am a large seller of Murphy and Jones, two players that are highly supported by other prospect sources. I was not a fan of Murphy in the Futures Game, his numbers aren’t very good, and players that get traded twice in prospecthood turn me off. Jones wasn’t even solid in low-A, so I’m not sold he’ll reach the potential that was once given to him (Kazmiresque).

Lester has already received my billing, so I’ll just start tooting Mike Megrew’s horn instead. A huge, 6-6 southpaw from New England, Megrew sounds like he does everything well. Los Angeles has a pitcher breakout every season, and I would choose Megrew to do so next year. Like Lester, his 3.41 ERA isn’t great, but a 10.65 K/9 is. Also, his H/9 is considerably better than what Olsen showed this year, in the exact same league.

That’s all for today, my top 25:

1. Scott Olsen- Florida
2. Cole Hamels- Philadelphia
3. Chuck Tiffany- Los Angeles
4. Dan Meyer- Atlanta
5. John Danks- Texas
6. Greg Miller- Los Angeles
7. Mike Hinckley- Washington
8. Zach Duke- Pittsburgh
9. Francisco Liriano- Minnesota
10. Jake Stevens- Atlanta
11. Jon Lester- Boston
12. Mike Megrew- Los Angeles
13. Bill Murphy- Arizona
14. Sean Marshall- Cubbies
15. Justin Jones- Minnesota
16. Tom Gorzelanny- Pittsburgh
17. Chuck James- Atlanta
18. Abe Alvarez- Boston
19. Chris Seddon- Tampa Bay
20. Gustavo Chacin- Toronto
21. Manny Parra- Milwaukee
22. Jon Connolly- Cubbies
23. Paul Maholm- Pittsburgh
24. Andy Sisco- Cubbies
25. Matt Chico- Arizona

Where am I wrong?