Baseball BeatDecember 24, 2004
Bert Blyleven For Hall of Fame: Answering the Naysayers
By Rich Lederer

When Bert Blyleven's name comes up for discussion among dissenting Hall of Fame voters, they usually argue -- not very persuasively, I might add -- that he: (1) didn't win a Cy Young Award or finish in the top ten often enough, (2) wasn't a "dominant" pitcher in his era, or (3) is no better than Tommy John or Jim Kaat.

Well, I wanted to address those faulty assertions one by one because Blyleven's case for the HOF is so compelling it is simply unfair to allow such comments to linger without being addressed properly.

1. "Blyleven didn't win a Cy Young Award or finish in the top ten often enough."

With respect to winning the Cy Young Award, when did that become a requirement for membership? If it is, then I guess we'd better let Jim Bunning, Juan Marichal, Phil Niekro, Nolan Ryan, and Don Sutton know about these rules.

As far as not placing in the top ten often enough, Blyleven had two more such rankings than Bunning and Marichal combined. He also had three more than Don Drysdale and the same number as Bob Gibson and Jim Hunter. He had one fewer than Niekro and Sutton.

Now let's take a look to see how many Cy Youngs and top ten finishes Blyleven should have garnered.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1971

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Vida Blue                  1.82    312        301       24       56   
2    Wilbur Wood                1.91    334        210       22       54   
3    Jim Palmer                 2.68    282        184       20       26   
4    Mike Hedlund               2.71    206         76       15       15   
5    Bert Blyleven              2.81    278.1      224       16       26   
6    Mel Stottlemyre            2.87    270        132       16       15   
7    Dave McNally               2.89    224         91       21       16   
8    Pat Dobson                 2.90    282        187       20       19   
9    Sonny Siebert              2.91    235        131       16       20   
10   Mickey Lolich              2.92    376        308       25       16

After being named the American League's Rookie Pitcher of the Year as a 19-year-old in 1970, Blyleven led the league in strikeouts/walks (3.80), ranked third in Runs Saved Above Average (26), fourth in strikeouts (224) and adjusted ERA+ (127), fifth in ERA (2.81) and shutouts (5), eighth in complete games (17), and ninth in innings pitched (278 1/3) in his first full season. (Runs Saved Above Average or RSAA equals the number of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed, adjusted for ballpark effects. ERA+ equals a pitcher's ERA, adjusted for ballpark, against the league average. An ERA+ of 100 is average.)

In what was a microcosm of his career, Blyleven didn't receive a single vote for the Cy Young Award. In fact, only six pitchers even received points that year. For those voters who put a lot of credence on Cy Young finishes, it was as if Blyleven didn't even pitch that year even though he was obviously one of the top ten hurlers in the league.

Blyleven didn't receive any support in 1972. He had a good season (3rd in K/BB, 4th in K, 5th in IP, and 8th in RSAA) but perhaps one that wasn't worthy of a top ten Cy Young ranking. I won't make a fuss here as I'd rather save that for later -- as in the very next year.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1973

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Jim Palmer                 2.40    296.1      158       22       54   
2    Bert Blyleven              2.52    325        258       20       53   
3    Bill Lee                   2.75    284.2      120       17       41   
4    Nolan Ryan                 2.87    326        383       21       28   
5    Doc Medich                 2.95    235        145       14       22   
6    Ken Holtzman               2.97    297        157       21        9   
7    Mel Stottlemyre            3.07    273         95       16       22   
8    Jim Colborn                3.18    314        135       20       18   
9    Dave McNally               3.21    266         87       17       24   
10   Bill Singer                3.22    316        241       20       15

The 23-year-old right-hander may have been the best pitcher in the A.L. in 1973, yet he finished seventh in the Cy Young voting. Heck, Bert might have been the best pitcher in all of baseball that year. He led the A.L. in K/BB (3.85), SHO (9), ERA+ (158), and -- for "cybergeeks" like me -- neutral wins* (26); was 2nd in ERA (2.52), K (258), WHIP (1.12), and RSAA (53); 3rd in CG (25); 4th in IP (325); and 7th in W (20).

*a projection of the number of wins the pitcher would have been credited with if he was given average run support.

Blyleven's seventh-place finish was the result of netting -- get this -- one point. Yes, that's right. One voter out of 24 saw fit to pencil Bert's name into the third slot on the ballot. The other 23 writers ignored him completely. Instead, they voted for Jim Palmer #1, Ryan #2, Hunter (and his 3.34 ERA in a pitcher's ballpark) #3, John Hiller #4, Wood #5, and Jim Colborn #6.

This is a good time to stop and reflect for a moment. Just because Blyleven was treated unfairly back then, should the voters continue to overlook him today when it comes to the Hall of Fame? Convicted felons have served less time than The Dutchman.

OK, maybe that was an anomaly, right? Nope, I wish I could say it was but, unfortunately, that's not the case. I'm here to report that Bert didn't receive a single vote for the Cy Young for the next 10 years (1974-1983). Is it possible that he failed to put up numbers worthy of such acclaim? I'll let you be the judge of that.

Let's take a peek at how Blyleven fared the following year. I mean, I don't want to be accused of just cherry picking his best years.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1974

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Catfish Hunter             2.49    318        143       25       38   
2    Gaylord Perry              2.51    322.1      216       21       42   
3    Andy Hassler               2.61    162         76        7       13   
4    Bert Blyleven              2.66    281        249       17       32   
5    Al Fitzmorris              2.79    190         53       13       23   
6    Ferguson Jenkins           2.82    328.1      225       25       23   
7    Nolan Ryan                 2.89    332.2      367       22       16   
8    Luis Tiant                 2.92    311.1      176       22       33   
9    Jim Kaat                   2.92    277.1      142       21       26   
10   Jim Perry                  2.96    252         71       17       20

In 1974, Blyleven was 2nd in K (249), K/BB (3.23), and ERA+ (142); 4th in ERA (2.66), WHIP (1.14), and RSAA (32); and 10th in CG (19). What did all that get him? Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Not one lousy point. So, once again, it was like Blyleven didn't even pitch that year for those writers who don't take the time to look beyond how many top ten Cy Young finishes he earned during his career.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1975

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Jim Palmer                 2.09    323        193       23       45   
2    Catfish Hunter             2.58    328        177       23       40   
3    Dennis Eckersley           2.60    186.2      152       13       24   
4    Frank Tanana               2.62    257.1      269       16       28   
5    Ed Figueroa                2.91    244.2      139       16       19   
6    Bert Blyleven              3.00    275.2      233       15       34   
7    Vida Blue                  3.01    278        189       22       14   
8    Rudy May                   3.06    212        145       14       15   
9    Mike Torrez                3.06    270.2      119       20        8   
10   Steve Busby                3.08    260.1      160       18       22

In 1975, the 25-year-old ended up 2nd in K (233), 3rd in WHIP (1.10) and RSAA (34), 4th in K/BB (2.77), 5th in CG (20) and ERA+ (129), 6th in ERA (3.00), 7th in IP (275 2/3), and 9th in SHO (3). Another outstanding year and another goose egg on the Cy Young scoreboard.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1976

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Mark Fidrych               2.34    250.1       97       19       38   
2    Vida Blue                  2.35    298.1      166       18       37   
3    Frank Tanana               2.43    288.1      261       19       25   
4    Mike Torrez                2.50    266.1      115       16       29   
5    Jim Palmer                 2.51    315        159       22       31   
6    Wayne Garland              2.67    232.1      113       20       19   
7    Paul Hartzell              2.77    166         51        7        8   
8    Bill Travers               2.81    240        120       15       18   
9    Bert Blyleven              2.87    297.2      219       13       23   
10   Gary Ross                  3.00    225        100        8        5

In 1976, Blyleven was traded from the Minnesota Twins to the Texas Rangers. Nonetheless, he still had a typical Blyleven year, placing 2nd in SHO (6), 3rd in K (219), 4th in IP (297 2/3), 5th in K/BB (2.70), 7th in RSAA (23), 8th in ERA+ (125), and 9th in ERA (2.87) and CG (18).

There was one fly in the ointment. Blyleven had a won-loss record of. . .gasp. . .13-16. It was the first time he lost more games than he won. Bert only had five such seasons in his 22-year career despite playing for teams that had a winning record less than half the time.

Don't mind the nearly 300 innings pitched with an ERA of 0.65 below the league average. Focus instead on his losing record. Indicative of Bert's tepid run support that year, his first two wins with the Rangers were ten-inning, complete-game 1-0 shutouts.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1977

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Frank Tanana               2.54    241.1      205       15       35   
2    Bert Blyleven              2.72    234.2      182       14       39   
3    Nolan Ryan                 2.77    299        341       19       35   
4    Ron Guidry                 2.82    210.2      176       16       26   
5    Jim Palmer                 2.91    319        193       20       29   
6    Dennis Leonard             3.04    292.2      244       20       32   
7    Dave Rozema                3.09    218.1       92       15       29   
8    Dave Goltz                 3.36    303        186       20       29   
9    Gaylord Perry              3.37    238        177       15       22   
10   Dennis Eckersley           3.53    247.1      191       14       13

In 1977, Blyleven may have been the best pitcher in the A.L. once again. He led the league in WHIP (1.07) and RSAA (39); was 2nd in ERA (2.72), ERA+ (151), and shutouts (5); 7th in K (182); 8th in K/BB (2.64); and 10th in CG (15). He also threw a no-hitter against the California Angels in his final game that year.

Based on his superb stats and no-hitter, one would think that Blyleven must have garnered some support with the writers. Au contraire. Bert failed to get a single point when it came time to vote for the Cy Young Award. Why? His W-L record was only 14-12 and voters were beginning to become infatuated with relief pitchers, naming Sparky Lyle the first of three closers to win the award over the next eight years.

After the 1977 campaign, Blyleven was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first four-team trade in major-league history. In his initial year with the Pirates, Bert finished in the top ten in K, K/BB, WHIP, ERA+, RSAA, SHO, CG, and IP. It was the eighth and ninth consecutive years that Blyleven placed in the top ten in RSAA and K/BB, respectively.

Bert's numbers fell in 1979-80, yet he was among the top five in strikeouts both seasons and placed in the top ten in IP one year and K/BB the other.

Blyleven was 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in the 1979 postseason, tossing four scoreless innings in relief to win Game Five of the World Series as the Pirates went on to defeat the Baltimore Orioles in seven.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1981

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Sammy Stewart              2.32    112.1       57        4       16   
2    Steve McCatty              2.33    185.2       91       14       23   
3    Dennis Lamp                2.41    127         71        7       17   
4    Tommy John                 2.63    140.1       50        9       15   
5    Britt Burns                2.64    156.2      108       10       17   
6    Larry Gura                 2.72    172.1       61       11       17   
7    Ron Guidry                 2.76    127        104       11       12   
8    Bert Blyleven              2.88    159.1      107       11        9   
9    Ken Forsch                 2.88    153         55       11       16   
10   Dennis Leonard             2.99    201.2      107       13       14

Blyleven pitched for the Cleveland Indians in the strike-shortened 1981 season. He found the A.L. to his liking, ranking 3rd in K (107) and K/BB (2.67); 8th in WHIP (1.16) and ERA (2.88); 9th in ERA+ (126) and CG (9); and 10th in W (11). It was the 11th consecutive year in which Blyleven finished in the top seven in strikeouts. As far as the Cy voting went, no can do.

A severe elbow injury sidelined Blyleven for most of 1982 and part of 1983.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1984

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Mike Boddicker             2.79    261.1      128       20       27   
2    Dave Stieb                 2.83    267        198       16       35   
3    Bert Blyleven              2.87    245        170       19       40   
4    Phil Niekro                3.09    215.2      136       16       15   
5    Geoff Zahn                 3.12    199.1       61       13       20   
6    Bud Black                  3.12    257        140       17       23   
7    Storm Davis                3.12    225        105       14       15   
8    Doyle Alexander            3.13    261.2      139       17       26   
9    Ray Burris                 3.15    211.2       93       13       13   
10   Frank Viola                3.21    257.2      149       18       29

In 1984, Blyleven rebounded with one of the best seasons of his career. He actually earned some respect from the writers that year -- ranking third in the Cy Young voting -- although he arguably deserved even better. Bert led the league in RSAA (40); placed 2nd in W (19), WHIP (1.13), and ERA+ (142); 3rd in ERA (2.87) and SHO (4); 4th in K (170) and CG (12); and 8th in K/BB (2.30) despite playing for a ballclub with a 75-87 record that ended up sixth in a seven-team division.

A broken bone in Bert's right foot cost him at least four starts, a chance at 20 wins, and possibly the Cy Young Award. He received more first-place votes than any starting pitcher that year but, as luck would have it, two relievers -- Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry -- placed first and second in the tally.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1985

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Dave Stieb                 2.48    265        167       14       47   
2    Charlie Leibrandt          2.69    237.2      108       17       39   
3    Bret Saberhagen            2.87    235.1      158       20       34   
4    Jimmy Key                  3.00    212.2       85       14       26   
5    Bert Blyleven              3.16    293.2      206       17       31   
6    Tom Seaver                 3.17    238.2      134       16       25   
7    Ron Guidry                 3.27    259        143       22       18   
8    Charlie Hough              3.31    250.1      141       14       36   
9    Jack Morris                3.33    257        191       16       31   
10   Dan Petry                  3.36    238.2      109       15       28

Blyleven split the 1985 season between the Indians and the Twins. The workhorse led the A.L. in IP (293 2/3), CG (24), SHO (5), and K (206); ranked 4th in K/BB (2.75); 5th in W (17), ERA (3.16), and RSAA (31); 6th in ERA+ (135); and 7th in WHIP (1.15). He also led the league in neutral wins (21) for the second time in his career. Bert picked up one first-place vote and wound up third in the Cy Young race for the second year in a row.

Since 1985, no pitcher has thrown more innings in a season than Blyleven's total that year. The 35-year-old veteran led the league in IP (271 2/3) the following season, as well as in K/BB (3.71); placed 2nd in CG (16), 4th in K (215) and SHO (3), 6th in W (17), 7th in WHIP (1.18), and 10th in RSAA (19). He also gave up 50 HR in 1986, a record that still stands today. Be that as it may, Blyleven actually gave up fewer homers than the league average during his career.

Blyleven won 15 games in 1987 plus three more in the postseason as he led the Twins to a World Series upset over the St. Louis Cardinals.

After a disappointing season in 1988, Blyleven was traded to the Angels where he earned Comeback Player of the Year honors.

AMERICAN LEAGUE, 1989

                                 ERA     IP         SO        W     RSAA    
1    Bret Saberhagen            2.16    262.1      193       23       44   
2    Chuck Finley               2.57    199.2      156       16       26   
3    Mike Moore                 2.61    241.2      172       19       36   
4    Bert Blyleven              2.73    241        131       17       28   
5    Kirk McCaskill             2.93    212        107       15       19   
6    Chris Bosio                2.95    234.2      173       15       20   
7    Bob Welch                  3.00    209.2      137       17       22   
8    Mark Gubicza               3.04    255        173       15       18   
9    John Cerutti               3.07    205.1       69       11       13   
10   Tom Candiotti              3.10    206        124       13       21

The 38-year-old bearded wonder led the league in SHO (5); ranked 3rd in WHIP (1.12) and RSAA (28); 4th in ERA (2.73), ERA+ (140), and CG (8); 5th in K/BB (2.98); 6th in W (17); and 7th in IP (241). For his efforts, Blyleven finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting that year.

Blyleven pitched two more seasons before retiring in the spring of 1993.

Although Blyleven didn't win a Cy Young Award during his 22-year career, a pretty strong case could be made on his behalf in 1973, 1977, 1984, and 1985. Furthermore, Bert should have placed in the top ten as many as a dozen times. To the extent that he didn't, it should be noted that not only was Blyleven regularly ignored by writers but they were only allowed to vote for first, second, and third in contrast to the Most Valuable Player balloting in which these same voters rank their selections from one to ten.

The bottom line is that Blyleven was one of the top ten pitchers in the league often enough that his record would reflect it had the writers been given the opportunity to vote for ten pitchers rather than three. I think it is safe to say that the season-by-season analysis and commentary debunks the idea that he failed to produce enough "Cy Young type" seasons.

Fool us once (Cy Young voting), shame on you. Fool us twice (Hall of Fame voting) and we're not going to sit back and take it anymore.

2. "Blyleven wasn't a dominant pitcher in his era."

Really? If striking out batters is a pretty good indication of dominance, there is no doubt that Blyleven was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era. To wit, Bert led the league in Ks once and placed among the top five 13 times!

Blyleven, in fact, is fifth in career strikeouts. The players immediately ahead of him and behind him are all in the Hall of Fame other than Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson -- and they will both be inducted five years after they hang 'em up for good.

CAREER STRIKEOUTS

                                 SO     
1    Nolan Ryan                 5714   
2    Roger Clemens              4317   
3    Randy Johnson              4161   
4    Steve Carlton              4136   
5    Bert Blyleven              3701   
6    Tom Seaver                 3640   
7    Don Sutton                 3574   
8    Gaylord Perry              3534   
9    Walter Johnson             3509   
10   Phil Niekro                3342

If the above isn't convincing enough, Blyleven is tied for sixth all-time in the number of 200-strikeout seasons. The 11 pitchers below were about as dominant as they come.

NUMBER OF SEASONS
STRIKEOUTS >= 200

1    Nolan Ryan               15   
T2   Randy Johnson            12   
T2   Roger Clemens            12   
4    Tom Seaver               10   
5    Bob Gibson                9   
T6   Pedro Martinez            8   
T6   Bert Blyleven             8   
T6   Steve Carlton             8   
T6   Gaylord Perry             8   
T10  Mickey Lolich             7   
T10  Walter Johnson            7

I can hear the argument now. Eight seasons of 200 or more whiffs might suggest Blyleven had a very good and long career but he just didn't have the peak that great pitchers are known to have. Well, you can shoot that one down, too, because Bert is tied for fourth all-time in the number of consecutive seasons with 200 or more Ks. The pitchers ranked ahead of Blyleven are three of the best in the history of the game and that Koufax fellow wasn't too bad either.

CONSECUTIVE SEASONS
STRIKEOUTS >= 200

1    Tom Seaver               1968-76    9   
T2   Walter Johnson           1910-16    7   
T2   Roger Clemens            1986-92    7   
T4   Sandy Koufax             1961-66    6   
T4   Sam McDowell             1965-70    6   
T4   Mickey Lolich            1969-74    6   
T4   Bert Blyleven            1971-76    6   
T4   Randy Johnson            1997-02    6   
T9   John Clarkson            1885-89    5   
T9   Bob Gibson               1962-66    5   
T9   Ferguson Jenkins         1967-71    5   
T9   Nolan Ryan               1976-80    5   
T9   Nolan Ryan               1987-91    5   
T9   Randy Johnson            1991-95    5   
T9   Pedro Martinez           1996-00    5

If you don't like strikeouts as a measure of dominance, how 'bout shutouts (as I wring my hands)? Blyleven led the league in shutouts three separate times and ranked among the top five nine times. He is ninth all-time in this category, surrounded by a who's who of the greatest pitchers ever.

CAREER SHUTOUTS

                                 SHO    
1    Walter Johnson              110   
2    Grover C Alexander           90   
3    Christy Mathewson            79   
4    Cy Young                     76   
5    Eddie Plank                  69   
6    Warren Spahn                 63   
T7   Nolan Ryan                   61   
T7   Tom Seaver                   61   
9    Bert Blyleven                60   
10   Don Sutton                   58

If you're not a stats guy, then try this on for size. Ask any ballplayer from the 1970s and 1980s who had the best curveball and, almost to a man, they will tell you "Bert Blyleven." Dave Winfield, for one, called Blyleven's yakker, "a bowel-locking, jelly-leg-inducing curveball." It was Bert's trademark. His name was synonymous with great curveballs.

Strikeouts. Shutouts. Uncle Charlies. Blyleven was dominant and among the very best in all three areas.

3. "Blyleven was no better than Tommy John or Jim Kaat and neither of them are in the Hall of Fame."

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the most similar pitchers to Blyleven are as follows:

Don Sutton (914) *
Gaylord Perry (909) *
Fergie Jenkins (890) *
Tommy John (889)
Robin Roberts (876) *
Tom Seaver (864) *
Jim Kaat (854)
Early Wynn (844) *
Phil Niekro (844) *
Steve Carlton (840) *

*denotes Hall of Famer

Sutton and Gaylord Perry are considered to be "truly similar" as defined by Bill James, the creator of similarity scores. Ferguson Jenkins, John, Robin Roberts, Tom Seaver, and Kaat are deemed to be "essentially similar" and Early Wynn, Niekro, and Steve Carlton are "somewhat similar." As such, Sutton and Perry are Blyleven's closest comparables -- not John and Kaat.

I guess it's not enough that eight of the ten comps are in the Hall of Fame. The naysayers would rather focus on the similarities between Blyleven vs. John and Kaat. OK, I can deal with that.

First of all, these two left-handers were outstanding in their own right and are certainly more worthy candidates for the Hall of Fame than several inductees. Secondly, Blyleven was even better. Although Bert's superiority may not show up immediately upon a cursory glance of the facts, the evidence is overwhelming when you dig below the basic statistics.

                 IP       W-L       PCT       ERA
Blyleven       4970     287-250    .534      3.31
John           4710     288-231    .555      3.34
Kaat           4530     283-237    .544      3.45

There is no doubt about it, it is difficult to distinguish one from another when it comes to the stats above (which, unfortunately, is about as far as some voters get when reviewing the merits of these and other candidates). But let's dig a little deeper.

             ERA+     RSAA     WHIP     SO     K/BB     CG     SHO
Blyleven     118       344     1.20   3701     2.80    242      60
John         111       173     1.28   2245     1.78    162      46
Kaat         107       144     1.26   2461     2.27    180      31

Blyleven beats John and Kaat across the board in ERA+, Runs Saved Above Average, WHIP, Strikeouts, Strikeouts/Walks, Complete Games, and Shutouts. The most telling stat of all is RSAA. Blyleven saved nearly twice as many runs as John and 200 more than Kaat over the course of their careers.

Another stat that distinguishes Blyleven from his peers is neutral wins and losses. Had Blyleven received league average run support, he would have ended up with a 313-224 W-L record, whereas John's (284-235) and Kaat's (282-238) totals would have remained virtually the same.

Why are Blyleven's adjusted numbers so much better than John's and Kaat's? In a nutshell, Blyleven played for weaker teams than John and Kaat, received less run support, and he also pitched in more difficult ballparks.

Lastly, I would like to point out that Blyleven meets or exceeds the average Hall of Famer in three of the four de facto standards developed by James, while John and Kaat meet just one each. Only 21 pitchers in the history of the game have met all four standards, including just nine who began their careers after World War II.

Here is where they stand with their overall rank in parentheses.

Bert Blyleven

Black Ink: Pitching - 16 (128) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 239 (23) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 50.0 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 120.5 (67) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Tommy John

Black Ink: Pitching - 8 (276) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 137 (114) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 44.0 (52) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 111.0 (75) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Jim Kaat

Black Ink: Pitching - 19 (98) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 128 (131) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 44.0 (52) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 130.5 (54) (Likely HOFer > 100)

John and Kaat were very good pitchers, but Blyleven was clearly better than both of them. As shown in the similarity scores above, Blyleven is more like Sutton and Perry than anyone else.

There are only two differences between Sutton/Perry and Blyleven. Sutton and Perry each won 300 games and are in the Hall of Fame. Blyleven fell 13 games short and is not in the Hall of Fame. Had Bert pitched under more favorable conditions, I don't think any rational voter could conclude that he would not have won 300 games.

Besides, if winning 300 games is what it takes, why are such well-known oldtimers as Mordecai Brown (239), Bob Feller (266), Carl Hubbell (253), and Joe McGinnity (246) in the HOF? Or how about greats from the '50s and '60s like Bunning (224), Drysdale (209), Whitey Ford (236), Gibson (251), Sandy Koufax (165), Marichal (243), and Roberts (286)? Or many of Blyleven's contemporaries over the first half of his career like Hunter (224), Jenkins (284), and Palmer (268)?

Bert Blyleven. 5th in Strikeouts. 9th in Shutouts. 24th in Wins. Not to mention 17th in Runs Saved Above Average and 15th in Neutral Wins. There is no doubt about it. That is a Hall of Fame resume. Here's hoping the voters take the time to check it out thoroughly.

[Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

Comments

AMEN!

Great post. Very informative. This should be required reading for all HoF voters. I've been appalled by Bert's lack of support.

Not only do I hope that HOF voters see this, but I think proactively sending this to as many of them as possible is the right course of action. Well done.

Rich,

Thought this might be of interest:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/discussion/25220/

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trevise :-) ...

I predict -- and hope -- thatBert Blyleven will be the first player elected to the HOF based on the sophisticated analyses of internet-based baseball writers. These are incredibly persuasive posts, Rich, one hopes you are doing more than preaching to the choir!

Right on. Plus -- since postseason performance seems to make a difference for a lot of people -- he was an excellent postseason pitcher: 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA (2-1 and 2.35 in the World Series), contributing to two world championships for different teams.

Why do people always make this argument for Jack Morris, but ignore it with Bert Blyleven?

it is getting to the point where you want to grab these nincompoops and scream "what is wrong with you?!" loudly into their faces. Great work, Rich, it's getting there. I hope Bert knows what's happening...

I just read another attempt (this one by a member of the Baseball Think Factory) at arguing against Blyleven's qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

From Traderdave:

"I'm a small hall guy and at first look, a 118 ERA+ is borderline at best."

My reply:

Hold on now. A 118 ERA+ over nearly 5000 IP is super. In fact, there is not one pitcher from the post WWII era with more innings and a better ERA+. Not one.

And that list includes Phil Niekro (115), Nolan Ryan (112), Gaylord Perry (117), Don Sutton (108), Warren Spahn (118), and Steve Carlton (115). Hall of Famers all. And pretty damn good ones at that.

Rich, as a huge fan of Mr. Blyleven during his playing career, I am very happy to see your analysis. I agree, his postseason stats and his no-hitter added to his wins, strikeouts and shutouts...that equals a no-question HOF'er.

I have one thing to add on his 1989 season: Bert was 17-5, and certainly should have won 20 games that year, but despite pitching for a fine (91 wins) Angels team, the culprit again was poor run support: He had 11 no-decisions, and his ERA was 2.46 in those 11 games! Slightly better than his overall 2.73 ERA for the season.

Bert also was overlooked for the All-Star game several times, none more glaring than in that 1989 season (he was 8-2 at the break, and leading the AL in ERA).

Looks like some of the writers are starting to get the message. Having seen Bert pitch in Pittsburgh, I followed his career and always felt he deserved the Hall of Fame induction. Keep spreading the word and hopefully we'll see him there in 2 more years. Great work compiling the stats.

Thanks for your excellent analysis that supports Mr. Blyleven's induction into the Hall of Fame. I shake my head every year wondering why the sportswriters consistently overlook him. He is well deserving of being in the Hall of Fame.
C'mon, you sportswriters, do the right thing and vote him in next year!!!!