Bravo. Another well thought, solid article. The fact that Weaver is unsigned but Cabrera is at shortstop boggles the mind.

Great job, Rich. You were able to take the Great Debate to the next level by showing the analysis that proves Eddie Bane's weak reasoning. The ironic thing here is that he has to go beyond the radar gun readings and scouts notes and use stats to make his case against the merits of Weaver's demands; he just doesn't know how to do it objectively -- likely never will.

It's also worth pointint out that Weaver would have gone much higher in the draft, but teams were scared of Weaver's disclosed price tag.

The issue is: if someone makes the price claim, and dozen or whatever teams respect the decision of the top-level player of the draft, does that next team get to take advantage of the opening, prevent other teams willing to pay that price, and play hardball?

Yes, they do! But, they also can't complain about it, if things don't go their way! Yeesh... that's like ordering food you are told may not be the best in the restaurant, and complaining that you didn't get a good meal at the end of the day.

We all know the unwritten rules here... you take your chances, roll the dice, and take your losses when they happen.

Good analysis. However, even if he was correct about Weaver not being comparable to Prior I think he is making a major mistake by addressing the negotiations in that forum. Will not help get a deal done which should be his goal.

Rich, there is a single logical error in your analysis that renders it's conclusion useless. Do you see why?

You did a good job of making the case that Weaver is comparable to Prior. You played some games with park factors, but not unreasonably. The error is after that. Do you see it now?

Comparing Prior's cost to current free agent costs is a bit unfair. Prior was a bigger risk than most free agents, just as Weaver is. But that's not the critical mistake. You are getting closer...

"I think it is high time that general manager Bill Stonewall step up to the plate and make an offer that approaches the contract that Prior got from the Cubs". Out of curiosity, who is Weavers agent? There, you found it!

Don't you think Scott Boras is capable of doing the same reasoning you have just done? Don't you think he can establish that Prior was a steal at 5/$10.5M, and that Weaver is comparable? You're critical error is that Boras isn't likely to settle for Prior money.

Is Boras asking for 5 years $20M? 5 years $30M? 5 years $40M? All of these would have been a bargain for Prior, if you only view the transaction after the fact. But that would ignore any risk in translating his abilities to the majors. There is risk that, even though Prior made a smooth transition, Weaver won't. And at some price point, the inherent risks become too high for Weaver.

Yeah. What Mike said.

Jered Weaver's an untested rookie; his brother is not. You don't have a crystal ball. Neither do I, but there's no way you hand out guaranteed contracts to guys who may not perform. I wasn't especially fond of the Morales signing. The Angels need to get a discount to make up for the risk involved.

"Don't you think he can establish that Prior was a steal at 5/$10.5M, and that Weaver is comparable? You're critical error is that Boras isn't likely to settle for Prior money."

Although I'm not privy to the negotiations, I think it has been pretty well established that Boras is seeking a deal similar to Prior's. There has been no indication from either side that he is asking for more money than Prior, much less the type of deals you subsequently mentioned.

"The Angels need to get a discount to make up for the risk involved."

The Angels ARE getting a discount to make up for the risk involved. To wit, Jeff Weaver will make $9.25 million this year. Based on a Prior-type contract, Jered's average over the next FIVE years works out to just over $2 million per year. That is a HUGE discount.

http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2005/01/if-you-have-to-ask_09.html

In fairness, I thought that Bane seemed to at least have an open mind when it came to the stat head stuff.

Also, Bane may very well think that Weaver will end up being as good as Prior. With Weaver not having signed yet, no way is Bane is going to say anything like that in an interview though.

BTW Rich, great writing. I've read several of your articles via Dodger Thoughts and BTF.

Rich--
"Another point in Jered’s favor is the fact that Prior’s contract has proven to be a bargain for the Cubs."

In a way, but you also have to consider that if Prior signs like any other prospect, he gets his signing bonus ($2m say), and he then gets $1m for this first three years combined (league minimum). He goes to arbitration in his fourth year and gets a big raise to $3-4m, and he earns $5-6m the next year. For his first five years then, you're talking $11-13m, not much more than what Prior will earn under his contract. The difference is that Prior is guaranteed his money, while the typical prospect has to put up the numbers in order to get the money through arbitration. All in all, the deal was a big gamble on the Cub's part that has turned out reasonably financially.

You can't compare what Prior's earning now to what free agents are earning, it's a completely different market. The three restricted contract years and the three arbitration years exist to encourage teams to develop and play their own young talent. Prior will get his free agency payday in the future (probably through a pre-emptive contract extension from the Cubs, or at least that's what I'm hoping), and having earnt more than most before hitting free agency, he'll be a very rich young man.

I believe they must come to the conclusion they are going to pay the price for drafting a Boras client or they should just walk away. Don't procastinate as the price will either go up or Boras will walk away. Get it done make the kid happy and have him ready to take Paul Byrds place when he goes out for the year injured sometime in July....MB OUT