The number of stolen bases has been flat to trending downward for the past 30 years. Why? Well, in a nutshell, stolen bases are simply not as valuable in today's high-scoring environment as they were in the Dead Ball era or during the pitching-dominated 1960s and early 1970s or, for that matter, during a more neutral environment like the 1980s.

Traditionalists may long for the next Ty Cobb, Maury Wills, Lou Brock, or Rickey Henderson, but the emphasis has moved away from base stealing to such a degree it is unlikely that baseball will produce another 100-stolen base season anytime soon. In fact, Vince Coleman may turn out to be the last player who built most of his value around his speed and baserunning ability.

Yes, Marquis Grissom stole nearly 80 bases twice during the early-'90s, but he has transformed his game to the extent that the soon-to-be 38-year-old outfielder has hit at least 10 home runs for 13 consecutive seasons (including 20+ in three of the past four). Kenny Lofton has combined a nearly .300 lifetime batting average with sufficient walk totals to elevate his on-base percentage .031 above the norm -- making him much more valuable than just someone known for stealing bases.

One might be able to make an argument on behalf of Otis Nixon, Brian Hunter, or even Tony Womack, but they each had just one season stealing 70 or more bases. I'm telling you, they just don't make thieves the way they used to -- or maybe they do but, instead of playing for the Dodgers or the Cardinals, these bandits chose to sign up with Enron and Worldcom and the like.

Only one player has stolen 70 bases during the first five years of the current century. His name? Scott Podsednik. The year? 2004. Let's take a look at the top 20 stolen base leaders for last season.

2004 STOLEN BASE LEADERS

PLAYER		   TEAM	     SB
Scott Podsednik	   Mil	     70
Carl Crawford	   TB	     59
Juan Pierre	   Fla	     45
Carlos Beltran	   KC/Hou	     42
Bobby Abreu	   Phi	     40
Dave Roberts	   Bos/LA	     38
Ryan Freel	   Cin	     37
Ichiro Suzuki	   Sea	     36
Chone Figgins	   Ana	     34
Endy Chavez	   Mon	     32
Corey Patterson	   ChC	     32
Jimmy Rollins	   Phi	     30
Rafael Furcal	   Atl	     29
Brian Roberts	   Bal	     29
Alex Rodriguez	   NYY	     28
Tony Womack	   StL	     26
Cesar Izturis	   LA	     25
Derek Jeter	   NYY	     23
Matt Lawton	   Cle	     23
Mike Cameron	   NYM	     22

Only two players even stole 50 bases and only five nabbed 40 or more. How valuable were these stolen bases? Here are the stolen base leaders in the context of caught stealing.

SB LEADERS WITH CS TOTALS

PLAYER		   TEAM	    SB	   CS
Scott Podsednik	   Mil	    70	   13
Carl Crawford	   TB	    59	   15
Juan Pierre	   Fla	    45	   24
Carlos Beltran	   KC/Hou	    42	    3
Bobby Abreu	   Phi	    40	    5
Dave Roberts	   Bos/LA	    38	    3
Ryan Freel	   Cin	    37	   10
Ichiro Suzuki	   Sea	    36	   11
Chone Figgins	   Ana	    34	   13
Endy Chavez	   Mon	    32	    7
Corey Patterson	   ChC	    32	    9
Jimmy Rollins	   Phi	    30	    9
Rafael Furcal	   Atl	    29	    6
Brian Roberts	   Bal	    29	   12
Alex Rodriguez	   NYY	    28	    4
Tony Womack	   StL	    26	    5
Cesar Izturis	   LA	    25	    9
Derek Jeter	   NYY	    23	    4
Matt Lawton	   Cle	    23	    9
Mike Cameron	   NYM	    22	    6

Juan Pierre stands out in the above table for the number of times caught attempting to steal a base. Pierre was thrown out so often, he would be well advised to just stay put. I know that flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but there is no disputing the facts here.

James Click of Baseball Prospectus has demonstrated that the breakeven point for stealing second base is approximately 73%, and it ranges from 70% to 93% (depending upon the number of outs) for stealing third base.

OUTS  STOLEN BASE  BREAKEVEN
0       Second       73.2%
1       Second       73.1%
2       Second       73.2%
0       Third        74.8%
1       Third        69.5%
2       Third        92.7%

In other words, if a player isn't successful about three-quarters of the time, then he is doing more harm than good by attempting to steal bases. I realize there are some other factors at play here, such as the score, who's pitching, and who's at bat. But, generally speaking, a baserunner needs to be called safe nearly three times as often as out when taking that extra 90 feet.

To determine the most efficient base stealers, I devised a simple formula in which I took stolen bases minus two times caught stealing. The reason behind this logic is twofold:

1. A baserunner who is caught stealing not only produces an out, but he also removes himself from the basepaths. It truly is a double whammy.

2. The breakeven point is 67% or slightly below the needed success rate to justify the event in the first place. I could have used three times rather than two to come up with a 75% breakeven point. I decided to err on the side of conservatism, plus I think it is slightly easier to compute the net number in your head using two times rather than three. I'm a big fan of KISS -- and I don't mean Gene Simmons. Keep it simple, stupid.

MOST EFFICIENT BASE STEALERS

PLAYER		 TEAM	  SB	 CS   SB-(2*CS)
Scott Podsednik	 Mil	  70	 13	 44
Carlos Beltran	 KC/Hou	  42	  3	 36
Dave Roberts	 Bos/LA	  38	  3	 32
Bobby Abreu	 Phi	  40	  5	 30
Carl Crawford	 TB	  59	 15	 29
Alex Rodriguez	 NYY	  28	  4	 20
Endy Chavez	 Mon	  32	  7	 18
Ryan Freel	 Cin	  37	 10	 17
Rafael Furcal	 Atl	  29	  6	 17
Lew Ford	          Min	  20	  2	 16
Tony Womack	 StL	  26	  5	 16
Derek Jeter	 NYY	  23	  4	 15
Eric Byrnes	 Oak	  17	  1	 15
Jose Reyes	 NYM	  19	  2	 15
Ichiro Suzuki	 Sea	  36	 11	 14
Corey Patterson	 ChC	  32	  9	 14
Darin Erstad	 Ana	  16	  1	 14
Luis Castillo      Fla	  21	  4	 13
Luis Rivas	 Min	  15	  1	 13
Jimmy Rollins	 Phi	  30	  9	 12
Jeff Davanon	 Ana	  18	  3	 12

Podsednik is not only the most prolific base stealer, but he also happens to be the most efficient. Carlos Beltran would be number one if I chose to subtract three times the number of CS rather than two times. Lew Ford, Eric Byrnes, Jose Reyes, Darin Erstad, Luis Castillo, Luis Rivas, and Jeff Davanon all show up for their efficiency even though none of them finished in the top 20 in stolen bases.

If the players in the table above are the most efficient base stealers, who are the least efficient?

MOST INEFFICIENT BASE STEALERS

PLAYER		   TEAM	  SB	 CS    SB-(2*CS)
David DeJesus	   KC	   8	 11	 -14
Juan Uribe	   CWS	   9	 11	 -13
Casey Blake	   Cle	   5	  8	 -11
Bernie Williams	   NYY	   1	  5	  -9
Luis A Gonzalez	   Col	   1	  5	  -9
Jason Bay	            Pit	   4	  6	  -8
Gary Sheffield	   NYY	   5	  6	  -7
Milton Bradley	   LA	  15	 11	  -7
Jeromy Burnitz	   Col	   5	  6	  -7
Jacque Jones	   Min	  13	 10	  -7
Michael Barrett	   ChC	   1	  4	  -7
Quinton McCracken    Sea/Ari  3	  5	  -7
Alex Sanchez	   Det	  19	 13	  -7
Manny Ramirez	   Bos	   2	  4	  -6
Andruw Jones	   Atl	   6	  6	  -6
Dustan Mohr	   SF	   0	  3	  -6
Todd Walker	   ChC	   0	  3	  -6
Paul LoDuca	   LA/Fla   4	  5	  -6
Coco Crisp	   Cle	  20	 13	  -6
Bobby Hill	   Pit	   0	  3	  -6
Henry Blanco	   Min	   0	  3	  -6
Ross Gload	   CWS	   0	  3	  -6
Raul Mondesi	   Ana/Pit  0	  3	  -6

Every player above is literally costing his team outs and potentially runs and even wins. Milton Bradley, Jacque Jones, Alex Sanchez, and Coco Crisp might win their fantasy baseball owners a few extra points, but they are a net negative for their real owners -- at least as far as stealing bases goes.

I suggest these players lose their CS (and SB) as well as their fancy names. Look, if you can't be in or around Mister Roberts' neighborhood (as in Padre outfielder Dave), then you may as well forget about trying to stealing bases altogether.

Interestingly, speaking of fancy names, Juan Pierre was the most inefficient base stealer in the majors last year using the more aggressive three times CS in the inputs. Rather than being the best base stealer in baseball as chosen by scouts in Sean McAdam's Hot Stove Heaters article for ESPN in January, Pierre is arguably the worst.

I got a big kick out of the following comment from a so-called "talent evaluator":

"He steals when it means something. He's not padding his total. Everyone knows he's going and he still makes it most of the time. That, to me, is the mark of a really great basestealer."

Does that also mean Pierre is thrown out when it doesn't mean anything? Well, for fun, I decided to check to see what Florida's record was in games Pierre stole a base and in games he was caught stealing. It turns out the Marlins were 22-15 in games in which Pierre recorded a SB and 11-12 when he had a CS. This finding may not be statistically significant although it could shed some light on the value of stolen bases and caught stealings in the context of a team's wins and losses.

The bottom line is that "making it most of the time" is not good enough. And it's certainly not "the mark of a really great base stealer."