Baseball Beat/WTNYApril 06, 2005
Survey Says...
By Rich Lederer

We have extended our Two on Two previews among all of our panelists to include everyone's picks for each of the division, wild card, and league championship winners, as well as the World Series champions, traditional award winners, and several other "fun" categories.

With us once again today are JD Arney (Red Reporter), Tyler Bleszinski (Athletics Nation), Brian Borawski (TigerBlog and The Hardball Times), Alex Ciepley (Cub Town), Brad Dowdy (No Pepper), Aaron Gleeman (Aaron Gleeman.com and The Hardball Times), Jason Mastaitis (Always Amazin' and MetsGeek), John Perricone (Only Baseball Matters), Jeff Shaw (U.S.S. Mariner), Patrick Sullivan (The House That Dewey Built), and Jon Weisman (Dodger Thoughts).

Although not meant to be a family feud among baseball bloggers, some of our responses may not be met with clapping and the proverbial, "Good answer."

	West	Cent	East	Wild
Aaron	OAK	MIN	BOS	NYY
Alex	LAA	MIN	BOS	NYY
Blez	LAA	MIN	NYY	
Brad	LAA	MIN	BOS	NYY
Brian	OAK	MIN	NYY	BOS
Bryan	LAA	CLE	BOS	NYY
Jason	OAK	MIN	BOS	LAA
JD	OAK	CLE	BOS	NYY
Jeff	LAA	MIN	BOS	
John	LAA	MIN	NYY	BOS
Jon	LAA	MIN	BOS	NYY
Rich	OAK	MIN	BOS	NYY
Sully	OAK	MIN	BOS	NYY

The Baseball Analysts consensus has the Angels nipping the A's in the West, the Twins taking the Central, the Red Sox winning the East, and the Yankees making the playoffs via the Wild Card.

In the National League, the panelists see the Dodgers winning out West, the Cardinals repeating in the Central, the Braves (yawn) capturing the East once again, and the Padres sneaking into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins.

	West	Cent	East	Wild
Aaron	LAD	STL	ATL	PHI
Alex	LAD	STL	PHI	SDP
Blez	SDP	STL	ATL	
Brad	LAD	STL	ATL	FLA
Brian	SF	STL	ATL	PHI
Bryan	LAD	STL	ATL	CHC
Jason	LAD	STL	ATL	SDP
JD	LAD	CHI	ATL	SDP
Jeff	LAD	STL	ATL	
John	SF	STL	FLA	ATL
Jon	LAD	PIT	FLA	NYM
Rich	SF	STL	FLA	ATL
Sully	LAD	STL	PHI	NYM

The consensus has Boston and Atlanta facing off in the World Series, but we do not see a clear cut World Series winner (with three panelists choosing the Red Sox and three the Braves). The Dodgers and Giants are the only other teams with more than one vote. The surprise? Nobody selected the Yankees to win it all.

	ALCS	NLCS	WS
Aaron	BOS	ATL	BOS
Alex	MIN	LAD	LAD
Blez	NYY	ATL	ATL
Brad	BOS	ATL	ATL
Brian	NYY	SF	SF
Bryan	BOS	ATL	ATL
Jason	BOS	STL	BOS
JD	BOS	LAD	LAD
Jeff	MIN	STL	MIN
John	NYY	SF	SF
Jon	LAA	NYM	LAA
Rich	BOS	STL	STL
Sully	BOS	PHI	BOS

As far as awards go, we see Hideki Matsui and Albert Pujols winning the MVPs, Randy Johnson and Johan Santana sharing the AL Cy Young and Tim Hudson narrowly beating out Pedro Martinez for the NL Cy Young, and Jeremy Reed taking AL Rookie of Year honors with Gavin Floyd and Jeff Francis in a tie for NL ROY.

	AL MVP	NL MVP		AL CY	NL CY		AL ROY	 NL ROY
Aaron	Chavez	Pujols		Santana	Hudson		Reed	 Hardy
Alex	Tejada	Pujols		Halladay	Sheets		McPherson	 Dubois
Blez	Matsui	Pujols		Santana	Schmidt		Swisher	 Burke
Brad	Ramirez	Pujols		Johnson	Martinez		Reed	 Reyes, A
Brian	Chavez	Pujols		Santana	Hudson		Kazmir	 Francis
Bryan	Matsui	Rolen		Johnson	Hudson		Blanton	 Floyd
Jason	Guerrero	Pujols		Santana	Martinez		Blanton	 Floyd
JD	Hafner	Garciaparra	Johnson	Hudson			
Jeff	Suzuki	Pujols		Johnson	Hudson		Reed	 Atkins
John	Matsui	Pujols		Johnson	Schmidt		Swisher	 Dallimore
Jon	Guerrero	Cabrera		Santana	Martinez		Teahen	 Closser
Rich	Matsui	Pujols		Santana	Beckett		Reed	 Barmes
Sully	A-Rod	Drew		Johnson	Martinez		Blanton	 Francis

Rather than stopping there, we decided to pick some additional categories for fun. Lloyd McClendon may not find it fun though if the panelists are right in believing that he will be the first manager fired in 2005. Jeff sees it differently. "Lee Mazzilli will leave the clubhouse earlier than Sammy Sosa this time." John chimes in with Charlie Manuel. "The guy has no business running a big league club, and the Phillies have unrealistically high expectations, a bad combination."

Jeremy Bonderman is the only player chosen by more than one to earn the distinction of Breakout Player of the Year. Alex has dubbed him Jeremy Bandwagonderman in view of his growing popularity as a breakout choice. John makes an unconventional choice by tabbing Randy Johnson, a five-time Cy Young Award winner, on the belief that he will make a run at 30 wins and become the first Yankee to strike out 300 batters in a season.

Jason Giambi is the runaway pick as Comeback Player of the Year and Adam Dunn (with two home runs on Opening Day already under his long belt) is the player most likely to become MLB's HR champion. There is no truth to the rumor that some of our guests tried to change their pick to Dimitri Young after his three-homer performance on Monday.

We also asked our panelists if Giambi is apt to hit more HR or spend more days on the DL and the latter wins by the narrowest of margins, 7-6. Blez adds, "If there is justice, days on the DL." No hard feelings in Athletics Nation, huh?

And the worst team in baseball goes to...the Kansas City Royals.

	Fired	  Breakout   Comeback	HR	    Giambi Worst
Aaron	McClendon	  Mauer	    Giambi	Dunn 47	    HR	  COL
Alex	Pena	  Bonderman  Giambi	Pujols 51	    HR	  KCR
Blez	McClendon	  Chavez	    Glaus		Pujols 54	    DL	  PIT
Brad	McClendon	  Bonderman  Glaus		Dunn 51	    DL	  KCR
Brian	McClendon	  Kearns	    Giambi	Dunn	    HR	  KCR
Bryan	Hurdle	  Patterson  Colon		Dunn 54	    DL	  KCR
Jason	Mazzilli	  Reyes, J   Giambi	Pujols	    HR	  KCR
JD	Mazzilli	  Reed	    Griffey Jr.	Dunn 52	    DL	  KCR
Jeff	Mazzilli	  Clement	    Hernandez, R  Guerrero	    HR	  WAS
John	Manuel	  Johnson	    Giambi	Dunn 48	    HR	  TAM
Jon	Bochy	  Harden	    Glaus		Guerrero 43  HR	  TAM
Rich	Garner	  Capuano	    Halladay	Dunn 50	    DL	  TAM
Sully	Miley	  Wright	    Kearns	Dunn 47	    DL	  PIT

We also asked the date of Barry Bonds' return and the combined number of starts between Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The range of answers on Bonds was April 29th (Jon) to "doesn't" (Jason). Jeff had a typically funny response. "July 15, give or take a tantrum." The Prior-Wood responses were fairly tight with Aaron and JD taking low honors (40) and Rich high (55).

In our free form category, we had panelists mail in Blue Books with their answers to the biggest surprise of the year. In no particular order...

Bryan: Last time baseball was down in the public relations department, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire saved the game. This time around it won't be two players to do so, but baseball will once again rise to the top of the sports heap. Six close division races and a few runs at some milestones (Ichiro at .400, Pedro and Randy at 300 strikeouts, etc.) will make this as exciting a year as any.

Jon: This is a complete, wild hunch, one that makes a mockery of the predictive arts, but injuries wipe out the top three expected contenders in the National League Central, opening the door for a surprise winner.

Sully: Behind only slightly below average pitching and a lineup that won't quit, the Baltimore Orioles push the Yankees, Angels and Indians for a hotly contested Wild Card berth.

John: My breakout player, if one can suggest that a five-time Cy Young Award winner can have a breakout year, is Randy Johnson, who will also give us the story of the year. All Randy Johnson needs to do to make a serious run at 30 wins is stay healthy, and I think he will. On his way, he will break numerous Yankee left-handed pitching records, finish in the top 3 in the MVP voting, and he will become the first Yankee with 300 strikeouts in a season.

Brian: Tigers win 85 and play a meaningful series with the Twins in the middle of September.

Aaron: With seemingly half the baseball world rooting hard for them and the other half rooting hard against them, the Oakland A's will have a winning record for the seventh season in a row. Everyone who predicted their demise will forget what they said.

Blez: It won't be a surprise to much of the Internet community, but the surprise of the year to the mainstream media will be how much the A's push the Angels in the AL West. Oakland is looking a lot like the 2000 team right now and if Blanton and Haren pitch to their potential, Joe Morgan, Harold Reynolds and the rest of them will be explaining how the team is successful because of their young pitching, not anything the front office has done.

JD: I think the surprise of the year will be the Cleveland Indians. They're in a very winnable division, and they've made some big strides in the past couple of years. I think they'll be the playoff team that kind of comes out of left field this year.

Jeff: Ichiro will make a strong run at .400. This will not be enough to get the Mariners into the playoffs, but will be an exciting chase for baseball fans worldwide. Twins in seven, a series for the ages. Sales of beer and ice cream bars skyrocket in Minnesota as people strive to revive Kent Hrbek's favorite snacks.

Alex: I think that, from the mainstream press's POV, the biggest surprise of the year is that not much has changed in the game despite the steroid debacle. Kids are still poppin' home runs, still striking guys out, all while apparently not indulging in those most hip fashion products, the Clear and the Cream.

Jason: The rumors of the A's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Joe Blanton, Danny Haren, and Rich Harden combine for 45 wins. Barry Zito returns to form. Huston Street paves the way to Endsville for opposing teams. The A's win the West by a healthy margin over the Wild Card winning Angels. That's right, the Wild Card will come out of the West this year, and Yankee officials will have yet another uncomfortable offseason.

Brad: My surprise of the year would be a pleasant one if it actually came to pass - no player will test positive for steroids. This is a story that could take over the game even more than it already has if there is a positive test during the season. Any player in their right mind will be clean by now, but that first guy who tests positive should have his punishment quadrupled just for being stupid.

Rich: My surprise of the Year? Reggie Sanders doesn't change ballclubs for first time since 1998, and he combines with Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker to hit the most home runs of any outfield in baseball.

Comments

Well to chime in here, Sully is getting way out on a limb calling the Orioles to challange the Yank's et al for a WC berth. But I have a hunch he (we) may be right.

I think the biggest story will be six teams in the A.L will go down to the wire for the last playoff berth.

How is Ichiro making a run at .400 when he "only" hit .372 while setting a season record for hits last year? Is he going to start walking? That's the only way he could do it, and I don't see how it makes sense for him to mess with a plate approach that he's been this successful with.

Blez hit the nail on the head:

"...Joe Morgan, Harold Reynolds and the rest of them will be explaining how the team is successful because of their young pitching, not anything the front office has done."

HaHaHa, SO true