Baseball Beat/WTNYJune 07, 2005
Live Blogging the MLB Draft
By Rich Lederer & Bryan Smith

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton (HS SS)

2. Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon (Nebraska 3B)

CORRECTLY TIED DOWN: In the end, the Diamondbacks and Royals did exactly what they had to do. While the scouting departments always run the drafts, you have to believe the PR departments had their say this morning. Where Seattle at third will likely be second guessed by many, few will argue with the top two picks.

The Royals got a taste of the public relation nightmare a below-slot choice would have received when rumors they had cut a deal with Cliff Pennington were made public. How could the Royals spend their highest choice ever on a consensus fringe first-rounder? Or more directly, how could they not draft Alex Gordon, top on some draft boards and a potential hometown (almost) hero.

For Arizona, enough comparisons had been thrown out there on Justin Upton to make drafting him a must. Bo Jackson athletically and Alex Rodriguez physically. B.J. Upton? Ha, he's way better. Forget the fact that Upton has no real home yet -- he's either a shortstop, third baseman or centerfielder, depending on who you ask -- because his bat will play anywhere.

I have for months claimed Alex Gordon to be tops on my draft board. Had I been Mike Rizzo today, I too would have drafted Justin Upton...and would not have blinked.
Posted by Bryan Smith at 1:09 p.m. ET

Gordon - Best college player in the draft. Projects to be a Hank Blalock type third baseman in the big leagues. Great strike-zone judgment and power.
Posted by Rich Lederer at 1:12 p.m. ET

3. Seattle Mariners: Jeff Clement (USC C)

Jeff Clement, C, USC - All-American catcher and a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award. Played on the U.S. National Team last two summers and was named MVP during the 33rd Annual USA vs. Japan Collegiate All-Star Series in Japan. Broke the national high school record for career home runs with 75 while prepping at Marshalltown HS (IA). Outstanding power with a short, compact stroke and good bat speed. Has shown excellent plate discipline (44 BB and 41 SO), especially for a young power hitter. Led Trojans in BA (.347), OBP (.474), and SLG (.606). Worked hard on his defensive skills after his freshman year, improving his footwork, blocking balls in the dirt, and arm quickness. Threw out 56 of 131 runners (43%) his sophomore and junior seasons.
Posted by Rich at 1:21 p.m. ET

4. Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia 3B)

As expected. Moments after the Nats drafted Zimmerman, the two sides agreed to a $2.975 million Minor League deal, with more than $800,000 up front as a signing bonus. According to this article, "Zimmerman will report to Double-A Harrisburg and then play in the Arizona Fall League once the Minor League season is over. Zimmerman also will report to Spring Training in 2006."

Did the Nationals have territorial rights to Zimmerman? (In the early days of the NBA--when teams were trying to win over local fans--the draft included territorial picks. A team had the right to forfeit its first-round pick and select a player from its immediate area. Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry Lucas, Bill Bradley, and Gail Goodrich were four of the more famous territorial draft picks.) In any event, it is good to see a Major League team draft and sign a hometown player, especially one the caliber of Zimmerman.
Posted by Rich at 7:40 p.m. ET

5. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun (Miami 3B)

Braun was first brought to my attention by John Sickels, who first wrote about him in late April. And then, again on May 18, when he said:

I love his bat, and I don't think he is far behind Gordon or Clement in what he could accomplish offensively. His defense may force a shift to the outfield, but even so I think he is one of the premium guys available. I would not be afraid to take him in the first ten picks, but he may last a bit longer than that.

Mind you, this is all before it was a given that Braun would be in the top ten (or even the first round). And hitting isn't new for Braun either, as his slugging percentage has been above .600 in each of his three Cane seasons. It appears that only Pat Burrell, Jason Michaels and Aubrey Huff have had better careers in Miami. That's a pretty good list to be behind, and Braun has Huff-like potential, even up to the defensive problems at third.
Posted by Bryan at 9:28 p.m. ET

6. Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Romero (Cal State Fullerton LHP)

Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal State Fullerton - Without question, the best left-hander in the draft. Ramos may have better command but Romero throws harder (low 90s) and has more upside than his Big West competitor and former Team USA teammate. Doesn't turn 21 until November. Had an outstanding junior year when he and Jason Windsor combined to lead CSUF to the College World Series title. Elevated his stature last summer by leading Team USA in ERA among starters and striking out more than one per inning. Came back this season and was the ace of a team that was number one in the country for most of the year, while boosting his strikeouts per nine from approximately 7 to 10.
Posted by Rich at 1:20 p.m. ET

7. Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki (LBSU SS)

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach State - The comparisons to former 49er shortstop Bobby Crosby read like a cliche at this point but they are apt. Plus arm and plus power for a shortstop. Tulowitzki has all the tools. Big, strong (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) modern-day SS. For a RHB, runs a respectable 4.25-4.3 to first base. Has excellent range in the field. Intense player with great leadership skills. Led team in AVG (.349), OBP (.431), and SLG (.599) and finished his three-year career sixth on the career home run list despite missing 20 games this year with a broken hamate bone in his hand. Proved he can handle a wood bat by tying for the lead in HR with four last summer on Team USA. Aggressive hitter who may need to work on plate discipline.
Posted by Rich at 1:17 p.m. ET

8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Wade Townsend (Rice RHP)

Can't help but think Tampa Bay and Townsend had a deal worked out in advance. Wink, wink. Don't see the Devil Rays taking him here otherwise.
Posted by Rich at 7:15 p.m. ET

9. New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey (Wichita St. RHP)

Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita State - Big, tall right-hander with a mid-90s fastball. Think Roy Halladay. Capable of getting strikeouts and groundballs. Wichita State pitching coach calls him the "best pitching prospect" in the school's history. However, the Shockers do not have a good reputation for developing pitchers who perform even better at the pro level. Client of Scott Boras adds to the uncertainty. A great gamble if he falls below the top ten.
Posted by Rich at 1:22 p.m. ET

10. Detroit Tigers: Cameron Maybin (HS OF)

11. Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen (HS OF)

12. Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce (HS OF)

13. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Snyder (HS C)

14. Cleveland Indians: Trevor Crowe (Arizona OF)

15. Chicago White Sox: Lance Broadway (TCU RHP)

The largest riser in this draft has undoubtedly been Broadway, who was a third-round pick a few weeks ago, and could have gone top ten this morning. Instead Broadway went to the White Sox, who are pleased to get someone who beat Brian Bogusevic as well as Southern Miss and Stanford in the past couple weeks. TCU coach Jim Schlossnagle told me that Broadway's repertoire includes a "spiked curveball, change up and fastball." The latter is apparently usually between 88-92, and his curveball will likely be known as one of the draft's best. Schlossnagle downplays thoughts that Broadway has stepped up the past few weeks, instead claiming "it's just that more people have seen him since we were playing Tulane and in the CUSA tournament and NCAA Regional."
Posted by Bryan at 1:43 p.m. ET

16. Florida Marlins: Chris Volstad (HS RHP)

First of all, drafting high school pitchers in and of themselves is regarded by many to be a fool's game. For those that do take the risk, and in doing so select one of the first couple players available, another question often comes up. On one hand, you could choose the fairly polished prep arm from a premier state, while the other is still raw (his state lacks big-time baseball) but his numbers are fantastic.

In 2003, the debate was between John Danks and Jeff Allison. The latter was ranked higher going into the draft, but the Rangers -- for budget and local concerns -- chose Danks before Allison. In 2003, Mark Rogers had a fantastic season in the northeast, but Homer Bailey had been mentioned as a top pitcher from Texas for years. Rogers went first, not by much, but now it appears that Bailey was the choice.

This season, while neither should be among the top 10 picks, the debate is between a Floridian right-hander and a southpaw from Utah. The latter has better strikeout numbers and has not registered an earned run in more than 60 innings. His stock had a rise that shamed Google, and he gained enough recognition to attract a certain power agent. Chris Volstad, from Florida, has not had so much volatility. Standing 6-7 tall and showing three plus pitches, Volstad has long been heralded a first-rounder.

Before watching them both through the video available through MLB's scouting service, I would have guessed the better pick to be Pawelek. While more risky, yes, this was a kid with a ceiling that no Major League dome could hold. Volstad would be a solid pick, yes, but why go the high school route for a kid that lacks that big ceiling?

I would have been wrong. Chris Volstad was the best high school arm this draft had to follow. The Marlins will get good value for their pick, and I would guarantee it if that damn TINSTAPP didn't stand in my way.

Volstad's huge frame is far more projectable than Pawelek's, where both throw from 91-94 now, Volstad might be consistently in the mid 90s in a couple years. Pawelek probably has the better breaking pitch right now, a sick slider that the MLB scouting service says goes from 1 to 7. Volstad throws the traditional 12-6 curve, and it is good, but he also mixes in a change as an out pitch. Pawelek has not gotten that far yet.

Of course it will be injuries that decide which player has bragging rights in the end, but right now give Volstad the leg up. And if you don't believe me, ask the Kansas City Royals whether they would prefer the all-tools player to the cerebral one.
Posted by Bryan at 1:23 p.m. ET

17. New York Yankees: C.J. Henry (HS SS)

18. San Diego Padres: Cesar Carillo (Miami RHP)

19. Texas Rangers: John Mayberry Jr. (Stanford 1B)

Mayberry - Perhaps the biggest enigma in the draft. Has arguably the best body of any college athlete. Ranks among the top athletes and projects to hit with more power than he has shown in his junior season.
Posted by Rich at 1:24 p.m. ET

20. Chicago Cubs: Mark Pawelek (HS LHP)

A Scott Boras client is signed, sealed, and delivered before the end of the first day of the draft? Well, Baseball America is reporting that Pawelek just inked a contract, which includes a bonus of $1.75 million or $250,000 more than last year's 20th pick received. (For more on this signing, check out MLB's article, Cubs sign first-round pick Pawelek.)
Posted by Rich at 7:45 p.m. ET

21. Oakland Athletics: Cliff Pennington (Texas A&M SS)

PENNING A COMPARISON- Together they represent one side of the conundrum. In the all-important risk v. reward argument, they stand on the low-risk, low-reward side. They argue that spending seven figures on the next Mark Lemke is a lot better than the next Brien Taylor.

The first of them was Russ Adams, back in 2002, when J.P. Riccardi made the Tar Heel his first pick as GM. Where Adams was taken ahead of blue chippers like Scott Kazmir, Jeff Francoeur and Matt Cain, he was also ahead of Denard Span, Matt Whitney and shortly after Scott Moore. This year Adams' teammate in fighting the high reward types is Cliff Pennington, now chosen 21st overall to the A's.

While Rich would surely disagree, I would argue that no player in recent memory has invoked thoughts of another of his type like Pennington. With the help of Ryan Levy (the source for Pennington, Texas A&M and Big 12 baseball), Baseball Cube and UNC's old player bios, here is my case...

Freshman Season

RA 50 143 0.322 0.063 17 20
CP 63 241 0.340 0.100 22 12

Pennington certainly started faster, gaining a full-time slot within the Aggies order less than five games into the season. It took Adams a little while longer to break into the order, but like Pennington, took a spot with good play throughout the year. Both players played at third base for most of the year, though Adams would shift to second towards the end. Pennington showed a better propensity for contact than Adams, who topped Cliff in the patience and baserunning categories.

Sophomore Season

RA 57 239 0.331 0.083 28 28
CP 63 257 0.339 0.116 33 12

Both players would move off the hot corner for their second seasons, as Pennington shifted to short and Adams to second. Their contact skills certainly began to look more similar, as did their patience. Pennington continued to show a bit more pop, while Adams was more of a threat on the basepaths. Where Adams gained All-ACC recognition for his season, Pennington was on the All-Big 12 second team.

Over the summers following their sophomore years, Pennington and Adams both opted for the Cape Cod League. Adams won the Robert A. McNeece Outstanding Pro Prospect Award and was named MVP of the Cape's mid-summer All-Star game where Pennington was given the #9 prospect tag from Baseball America and won the league's Manny Robello Award (10th Man). Their averages (Adams at .281, Pennington hit .277) and stolen base numbers (23 and 21) were both very similar.

Junior Season

RA 63 254 0.370 0.185 52 45
CP 56 212 0.363 0.198 37 29

Russ shifted to short for his final season at North Carolina, showing the versatility that the Blue Jays fell in love with. Pennington also played a little bit at second this year in College Station, showing potential at both positions. His numbers -- besides the power numbers -- all fell a bit short of Adams, though they were again very similar.

In conclusion, expect Cliff Pennington to be a good choice, and to make the Majors on a similar timetable to Adams, which would be first in mid-2007, and full-time in 2008. His defense was always much better regarded than Adams, and sticking at shortstop -- and ranking better than 10th in the AL in fielding Win Shares -- should not be a problem. Look for him to have a little less patience than Adams, but have better than .283/.393 in the AVE/SLG departments. The Royals would have been reaching at two, but expect Billy Beane to be quite happy in retrospect.
Posted by Bryan at 1:26 p.m. ET

22. Florida Marlins: Aaron Thompson (HS LHP)

23. Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury (Oregon St. OF)

Not surprised by this pick at all. The prototype merging of scouting and performance analysis right here. Has the tools (speed and defense) as well as the strike zone judgment that sabermetricians like to see. He won't hit .400 in the majors like he has in college, but .300 with moderate XBH power, BB, and SB thrown in a la Johnny Damon is certainly achievable.
Posted by Rich at 6:50 p.m. ET

24. Houston Astros: Brian Bogusevic (Tulane LHP)

25. Minnesota Twins: Matt Garza (Fresno St. RHP)

26. Boston Red Sox: Craig Hansen (St. John's RHP)

I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers in the first round but when a potential number one drops to #26, you gotta step up--provided that you are willing to pay the (Boras) freight. Like in the case of Hochevar (who fell to #40), it'll be interesting to see whether the team steps up or if the player reduces his asking price. One can't minimize the potential for a long holdout in both cases.
Posted by Rich at 7:10 p.m. ET

27. Atlanta Braves: Joey Devine (NC St. RHP)

I will refute Rich, because I believe that relievers make great late first-round picks. The track records of relievers drafted the last few seasons are far better than the players usually picked between 25 and 30. For a team like Atlanta, that sees so much change over from season to season, adding a potential mainstay in their bullpen is a fantastic idea. Devine is a good one too, as his velocity improved this season, up to the mid-90s in the ACC tournament. Considering the depth of this system, and the consistent holes in Atlanta's pen, this was a very good pick.
Posted by Bryan at 9:36 p.m. ET

28. St. Louis Cardinals: Colby Rasmus (HS OF)

After not signing one high school player all of last season, the Cardinals come out making a statement by picking Rasmus. A left-handed power hitting outfielder, Rasmus set the Alabama home run record this season, watching his stock go through the roof. He sounds like a very cerebral player -- the kind of high schooler college-geared teams like -- so Rasmus could be a very hot prospect next season. Also, he should be a relatively easy sign, which is more than the Cards can say for some of their picks.
Posted by Bryan at 4:27 p.m. ET

29. Florida Marlins: Jacob Marceaux (McNeese St. RHP)

30. St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler Greene (G. Tech SS)

31. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt Torra (UMass RHP)

32. Colorado Rockies: Chaz Roe (HS RHP)

33. Cleveland Indians: John Drennen (HS OF)

34. Florida Marlins: Ryan Tucker (HS LHP)

35. San Diego Padres: Cesar Ramos (LBSU LHP)

Cesar Ramos, LHP, Long Beach State - If Tulowitzki is similar to his predecessor Crosby at Long Beach State, then Ramos has to be likened to Abe Alvarez, who made it to the bigs last year in Boston and is currently pitching for Pawtucket. Both are lefthanders who rely on command and control more than raw speed or stuff. Ramos works in the high-80s with a four-seam fastball. Excellent mechanics. Arm may have tired down the stretch. Allowed 14 H, 11 ER with only 6 K in 10 IP in his final two starts vs. CSUF and USC. One of 10 semifinalists for the Roger Clemens Award, given to college's top pitcher. Pitched for Team USA last summer.
Posted by Rich at 2:07 p.m. ET

36. Oakland Athletics: Travis Buck (Az St. OF)

37. Anaheim Angels: Trevor Bell (HS RHP)

38. Houston Astros: Eli Iorg (Tenn. OF)

39. Minnesota Twins: Henry Sanchez (HS 1B)

40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Luke Hochevar (Tenn. RHP)

It came as no surprise to many that on the heels of last year -- when Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Justin Verlander all signed similar contracts -- Luke Hochevar came out of the gate asking for a bonus of about $5M. Still, this price tag and the Boras name under his representation caused Hochevar to drop far, giving the Dodgers a legit top ten selection. Hochevar would only add to a farm system chock full of pitching depth, and could quickly become one of the better names on the list. Considering that the Dodgers don't have a player above him that gets first signing preference, expect Hochevar to sign -- for less than $5M -- rather than returning to Tennessee.
Posted by Bryan at 5:15 p.m. ET


I applaud the Dodgers for taking Luke Hochevar. The argument wasn't about high school or college in this case. This was a pick that Logan White and Paul DePodesta would both endorse. White obviously likes Hochevar, going back to 2002 when he drafted him out of high school. DePo is probably stunned that he even had the chance to select such a talented pitcher at #40.

Hochevar's outing on Friday didn't raise his stature in the draft. He worked eight innings and gave up five runs on nine hits while recording nine strikeouts and four walks. However, prior to that, he was considered one of the top two starters in the draft (along with Mike Pelfrey).

Scott Boras and an asking price of $5 million scared away many teams. It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers step up well beyond the norm for a supplemental pick or if Boras and Hochevar come down. Unlike Jered Weaver last year, every team in baseball passed on Hochevar, which weakens his position considerably.

Furthermore, even in the words of Boras, Hochevar is not as "major league ready" as was Weaver last year. Luke might throw a couple of mph harder than Weaver and has a plus breaking ball, but he does not possess the same command and control as Jered. His lack of polish suggests Hochevar is probably at least two years away from pitching at Dodger Stadium.

Conclusion: A potentially great draft pick if the Dodgers can sign him for a price not to exceed $3M.
Posted by Rich at 8:30 p.m. ET

Final add: Jon Weisman asked a question regarding Hochevar and you can find my response on his Dodger Thoughts site at Baseball Toaster.

41. Atlanta Braves: Beau Jones (HS LHP)

42. Boston Red Sox: Clay Buchholz (HS OF)

43. St. Louis Cardinals: Mark McCormick (Baylor RHP)

McCormick - Major League-ready fastball that hits the upper 90s coupled with Rookie League command and makeup. Client of Scott Boras adds to the concerns of scouting directors and general managers.
Posted by Rich at 2:09 p.m. ET

44. Florida Marlins: Sean West (HS LHP)

45. Boston Red Sox: Jed Lowrie (Stanford 2B)

46. St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler Herron (HS RHP)

47. Boston Red Sox: Mike Bowden (HS RHP)

48. Baltimore Orioles: Garrett Olsen (Cal Poly RHP)

And that, ladies and gentleman, is the first round of the 2005 draft. We'll probably slow down our up-to-the minute coverage around here, and worry about recapping the first round. Please leave any thoughts on picks 1-48 below, and for a list of all the picks that are made today, drop by The Griddle at Baseball Toaster.

* * * * *

TRIVIA QUESTION: Four number one draft picks have been named MVPs. Name them.

Posted by Rich at 6:35 p.m. ET

* * * * *

FYI: In case you tuned in earlier in the day, and came back thinking you were reading the same things, here is a list of updates made since 5 p.m. ET: Zimmerman (4), Braun (5), Townsend (8), Pawelek (20), Ellsbury (23), Hansen (26), Devine (27) and Hochevar (40).


Good morning Rich and Bryan. In BA's final projections for the 1st and suppl. 1st rounds they have 15 college (1 of them a JUCO) pitchers, and 10 from HS. The top end are mostly college hurlers. Is this a higher HS percentage over the last few years, and do you see any trend back towards HS pitchers?

Jeff, great question. Here is a look at the last three years, all before the second round...

2004: 20 college pitchers, 8 from HS
2003: 7 college pitchers, 5 from HS, 1 from PR
2002: 15 college pitchers, 8 from HS

So, I don't think this year is particularly unique in the sense that 10 high school pitchers could be first-round choices. I think it is just a product of the depth that this draft has to offer, and I think you could definitely see the 15-10 balance shift in either direction, too.

But with that said, I should say that I believe many sabermetric teams are changing their philosophies a bit. If more and more organizations make Cardinal-like philosophical changes, the pendelum will swing towards high school players.

Rich - Good comments on Tulo. He is going to love hitting in Denver versus Blair Field.

Jeff - Tulo will definitely find Coors more to his liking than Safeco. I hope he signs quickly and begins his professional career in time to make an impact this year. Wouldn't be surprised if he got the proverbial cup of coffee in the bigs as early as September '06.

Any scuttlebutt on Ryan Braun?

Bernie, I'll have more on Braun below his name above this afternoon, but he's a solid pick. The Brewers are always quiet about their draft picks, and after everyone thought it would be Maybin, Clement or Pelfrey, they went with Braun.

Ryan should have a bat more powerful than Zimmerman's, but the question will be his defense. There are rumors that he'll eventually land in left, but for now, expect him to play third base. He was just on the MLB show, and his make-up and enthusiasm sound fantastic.

What do you know about Brian Pettway, the Blue Jays' 3rd round pick? His stats at Ole Miss look fantastic (.391/.461/.704, 34/44 BB:K, 20hr), and I don't remember hearing anything about him up to this point.

Jon, I like Pettway a lot at this point, and he could give the system some very solid power. His athleticism is apparently lacking, and if he moves to first, will probably need to walk more than he does. He simply could be a quad-A hitter with a lot of power, but considering the park he played in, you have to like his chances.

Thanks Bryan. Great coverage.

What's your opinion of the Mariners' choice at #3? A reach at #3, or a good upside pick?

Thanks Jon, I appreciate it. Also give kudos to for their coverage, as we can only hope that ESPN offers to purchase their draft coverage next season.

As for Jeff Clement, it makes sense given the team's weaknesses at catcher and in the power department. Still I don't think the team drafted for need, as Clement is that good. I'll have more on his defense later, but it looks average by all accounts, which is better than many reports said. Dave Cameron's comp of Jason Varitek with more power is good, although I doubt Clement will ever get the rave reviews that Jason does.

And as Fred Claire pointed out a couple times today, I don't think it's too surprising to find out where Pat Gillick went to school...USC.

I know it's WAY too early to be grading selections, but I'll do it anyway.

I think Arizona, Boston, San Diego and Florida are having AMAZING drafts thus far. Thoughts?

Thanks for the info Bryan--you two know your stuff here. I was a bit worried the Crew pulled him out of nowhere for signability/position needs, but it sounds like that's not the case.

Griffey Jr.
Chipper Jones
Jeff Burroughs?


Trivia: ARod, Chipper, Burroughs....who else?

Brian has the four #1 draft picks and MVPs down pat. Congrats on in order, especially if you didn't "cheat." Less than 15 minutes is impressive.

Rich, Bryan -- great coverage. Thanks for it.

Thanks, Rob. Bryan and I appreciate the kind words and your loyal readership.

Well, I didn't cheat, but I probably got it a couple hours before from the same place you did. I saw it on ESPNews. ;)

It's also a good question because of all the comparisons between both A-rod and Griffey and Upton.