Thanks Erik, change made.

I think it's too strong, Bryan, to say that Anthony Reyes is "blocked." Yes, he pitched quite well in his big-league debut; yes, he's showed flashes of mastery down in AAA (most recent outing: 7 IP, 2 H, 15 K); and yes, you could argue that he's more effective right now than a couple of the Cardinals' current starters (Mulder and Marquis come to mind).

But remember that until very recently Reyes suffered from a sore shoulder, and overall his starts have been rather erratic. He has a tendency to get the ball up in the zone, and he still seems a bit unpolished to me -- after all, this is only his second pro season. But trust me, the Cardinals will make a decision in the offseason that paves the way for Reyes. They'll either decline the option on Mulder, or decline arb on Marquis, or they'll let Morris walk in his f.a. year. Reyes is very much part of the Cards' future, and I think the analogy to Atlanta (in which Schuerholz gave time to Francoeur, Betemit, et al only in emergencies) does not apply to a team that has a very reliable and durable rotation, and wants to treat Reyes very gingerly in the short term so that they have him healthy and effective in the long term.

As for the other elements of your piece, I agree -- the actuarial trends do not favor the Cards. Their outfield is awfully old, and the team's injury problems are likely here to stay (does anyone get a funny feeling that Scott Rolen may be this generation's Matt Williams?). Letting Barton go was a disgrace, and despite some attempts to beef up the farm system, there's a growing sense that Jocketty plans to fill holes by relying on added revenue from the new stadium. Sounds like Yankeeball to me, which barely works in New York, much less that tiny little hamlet of St. Louis.

Six months ago the consensus was the Cardinals didn't have pitching depth. WTNY was saying Reyes was going to collapse. It seems strange to say he's now blocked.

The Cardinals, like any contender, rely on their ability to acquire and develop stars. Edmonds fades, Carpenter emerges. They completely neglected the farm for three or four years and they don't have big bucks, so they acquire stars via trades. Their big problem isn't that the team is aging, so much as Rolen looks like he'll be constantly injured and Mulder looks like a dud.

I disagree that Rolen looks like he'll be constantly injured. He just turned thirty, for crying out loud. We're not talking about a frail, sparrow-boned person here, or someone with a low pain threshold. This year, Rolen was forced to come back immediately rather than getting in a rehab stint at AAA, as he repeatedly requested he be allowed to do. One person alone denied his request, against the strong advisement of everyone else in the organization, and their consensus is that his immediate return aggravated his injury and delayed his full return to health. Other than that, he hadn't been on the DL in years, he played through his neck injury after that brutal headfirst slide in Boston in June of 2003, and if you're thinking of his sitting out the 2002 offseason, I'm sure you recall that Alex Cintron blindsided him with sufficient force to dislocate his shoulder. He wasn't exactly sitting out because of a paper cut.

Upon review, I see that my previous comment sounds rather hostile. That was not intended. :) Chalk it up to being very upset about the prolonged absence of one of my favorite players of all time.

Back to the topic: One thing Bryan graciously doesn't mention here is the fact that all the "no-name fill-ins" (many of them young(ish)) who are being praised for helping preserve the Cardinals' lead despite half the opening day lineup being on the DL, are no doubt currently playing out of their minds and over their heads. How long can they go on? They also have no playoff experience (that I can think of right now). This keeps me up nights.

I'm not saying Rolen's JD Drew, June. I'm saying he's going to spend a lot of time hurt because of the way he plays the game. And for practical purposes Rolen was on the DL in September 2004.

Ah! agreed on all counts. :D

Pretty nice article. (Disclaimeer - I'm a Cardinal fan.) But isn't it kind of premature to say the Cardinals are aging too rapidly?

Granted - the outfield is old. Edmonds (35), Sanders (37) and Walker (38) have their best days behind them. But Edmonds is still one of the top 5 centerfielders in baseball, and isn't exactly hurting the team.

Pujols (25) and (when healthy) Rolen (30) are the building blocks of the future, however, with Molina (22) looking solid defensively. Eckstein (30) isn't exactly over the hill, either.

The same can be said of the roation, with Carpenter (30), Suppan (30), Mulder (27) and Marquis (26) all likely to be back next year, joined by Reyes (23). That would give them a projected 2006 rotation with the average age of 28.2 years old, including no one over the age of 31. Not exactly on Social Security.

Granted, the Cardinals need Pujols and Rolen healthy, they need Edmonds to age somewhat gracefully, and they need to sign a young, solid corner outfielder (or two.) But if they continue to get outstanding years out of Pujols and solid pitching out of the likes of Carpenter and company, they are likely to contend for a playoff birth for at least the next 2 to 3 seasons, even if they (more or less) stand pat. And if we've learned anything over the last few years, it's that Jocketty doesn't stand pat.

Great article...But Jocketty isn't totally clueless. We'll be fine next year.

hey bryan, haven't had a chance to weigh in until today but i generally agree with you on all counts save reyes. he will be in the rotation next year (hell, maybe as soon as this year), but otherwise as you note farm-system help is far off. it's telling that rick ankiel is probably the most-discussed position player in the cardinal farm system.

but as you note, the cards still have time to change course. marquis will probably be dealt after the season, either for prospects or a youngish outfielder (kevin mench, anyone?), and they will have dollars available to sign a youngish free agent. it wouldn't take a major overhaul to field an opening day 2006 lineup that features four 20somethings (molina pujols and two offseason acquisitions) and two 31-year-olds (rolen and eck'n).

but they need to change philosophies. i noted recently that the cards and braves have switched poles from the 1980s, when ted turner used to try to build via the checkbook and the cards relied on scouting and development. it's nice to have "name" players who want to play in stl, but there's still nothing more satisfying than watching the kids develop imho

Bryan,

I have to disagree on a couple points.

First, to say the Cards haven't gotten much from young players ignores Albert Pujols (and Molina). If you are going to use the 25 and under standard for the Braves, then you need to do the same for the Cards.

It also assumes that other teams are producing young talent. That doesn't happen. As of today, there are 27 major leaguers who are 25 or under who qualify for the batting title, or about one per team (the Cards have Pujols, and also their farm system developed Coco Crisp). If Molina wasn't injured, the Cards would have two. Most teams do not produce or play young players in quantities, especially teams contending for pennants.

Second, regarding the 1995 Braves, to say that Lopez and Klesko were keys somewhat overstates their contribtutions, as neither played in 75% of the Braves' games. Chipper was full time; he was also the #1 pick in the draft in 1990. Fortunately for the Cards, they are not going to be drafting #1 for a long time to come.

And Steve Avery a pitching key? He was 7-13 on a 90-54 team, and his ERA was 4.67 to the team average of 3.44. When the big three of Glavine, Smoltz, and Maddux are 47-16, it's hard to mention Avery in the same breath (no argument on Wohlers, though).

Finally, you ignore the Cards recent ability to pick up "free" talent. In 2003, they picked up Cal Eldred off the rubbish pile. In 2004, they picked up Kiko Calero as a 6 year FA, (and signed Tavarez, who has been extremely solid in a steup role). In 2005, they have Flores and Al Reyes, somewhat career minor leaguers or marginal major leaguers who have both been effective.

Dave