WTNYNovember 29, 2005
Dismantling Done Right
By Bryan Smith

Ken Williams has set a deadline for the Winter Meetings. The Angels have apparently offered Paul Konerko a five-year, $60 million contract. The Orioles are talking about adding a sixth year onto their offer. The Red Sox remain interested.

The writing is on the wall. And Sox fans, don't worry, it's not bad. At this point, signing Konerko would be a bad mistake.

Many Sox fans will tell you that the key to the 2005 season was trading Carlos Lee. Yes, they lost one of their most powerful sluggers, who would move to Milwaukee and post an .811 OPS. But, in return, the White Sox landed sparkplug Scott Podsednik, a 65-game reliever in Luis Vizcaino and enough money to sign Tadahito Iguchi, Orlando Hernandez and Dustin Hermanson. At the time, we hated the trade. At the time, we undervalued the importance of money.

We learn history to avoid repeating our mistakes. To sign Paul Konerko, the White Sox will likely have to pay the slugger at least $13 million for the next five seasons. This is a price that is simply too high for a player with such a limited skillset.

Pardon me, I don't want to do Konerko any injustices. As a hitter, Konerko is well above-average. In 2005, he led the White Sox in both slugging percentage and on-base percentage, in both extra-base hits and walks. Since coming to the Sox in 1999, there has been only one season in which he did not post an OPS higher than .840.

However, when factoring in regression and age, it's not hard to see a decrease in Konerko's offensive skills. At that point, surely his bat will not be able to make up for the other facets of the game, in which Konerko is a burden on the White Sox.

Another 2005 key, as we have heard time and time again, was the Sox improvements on defense and the bases. In both of these areas, Konerko hurts the White Sox. First, we'll start with fielding. In the last five seasons, Baseball Prospectus has found PK to be above average just twice. In 2004, MGL's great UZR stat had Konerko at an abysmal, and league low -17. Without question, Konerko's defense improved in the 2005 season. Unfortunately, he will never possess good range, and as he ages, any improvements will likely be lost.

Onto the bases. Again, I don't really have 2005 numbers yet, as I couldn't find Konerko in the Bill James Handbook, and have not yet received the Hardball Times Baseball Annual, with Dan Fox's baserunning numbers (feel free to leave numbers from either in the comments). We do, however, have numbers from the past seasons. Fox's Incremental Runs stat has been compiled from 2000-2004, in which Konerko ranks low. His IR was just -3.73 in those seasons, and from the looks of things, 2005 could not have been much better.

Good on offense, bad in the field and on the bases. And in all cases, adding five years to a body that turns 30 in Spring Training will only hurt Konerko in all facets of the game.

So, assuming the Sox lose Konerko (as Will Carroll opines), what comes next? Surely, the Sox wouldn't dare use Jim Thome, the one player worse than Konerko in 2004 UZR (-21) at first, would they? Let's hope not. In fact, I would propose the White Sox look to solve their problems in the same way they did a year ago: from the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Sox need someone to play first base who will help both offset the damage done by losing Konerko in the lineup, and Aaron Rowand in the field. They need someone who will be solid offensively, but help the White Sox improve both defensively and from a baserunning perspective. They also don't want to overpay.

Lyle Overbay. The left-handed first baseman for the Brewers, soon to be pushed out by Prince Fielder, who has posted OPS numbers of .863 and .816 each of the last two seasons. The former Diamondback farmhand that will turn 29 in January, but will only enter arbitration this year. The player who was, by Bill James' measures, as good a baserunner as Aaron Rowand in 2005, and better than average (by Dan Fox's measures) in 2003 and 2004. The fielder that David Gassko mentioned fell second to Nick Johnson in his 2005 Gold Gloves, and who Baseball Prospectus has given positive remarks on in each of the last three seasons.

In 2005, Paul Konerko posted a VORP of 56.4, more than 20 points better than Overbay. In 2004, Overbay was about five points ahead. Going forward, you have to like Overbay's chances to compete, especially in a stadium in which James ranked the second easiest for left-handed home runs from 2003-2005. And remember, Overbay probably is about 10-20 runs better per season than Konerko in the field and on the bases.

So, what would I do in Williams shoes? Announce that Konerko has been priced out of your budget at the Winter Meetings, shortly before acquiring Overbay for Brandon McCarthy, Damaso Marte and a prospect (Jerry Owens? Robert Valido?). Then, sign Overbay through his arbitration years, a four-year, $25 million contract, with annual numbers of about $5M, $6, $7 and $7 million.

First, why would the Brewers not make this trade? In the trade, they likely free a bit of payroll by losing Overbay for Prince, and landing a $300,000 starting pitcher. Oh, and not just any starting pitcher, but Brandon McCarthy, who would look really good alongside Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Doug Davis in the Milwaukee rotation. They also get Damaso Marte, who appeared in 60+ games in 2005 for the fourth straight season. Last year, just one Brewer (Derrick Turnbow) appeared in more than 50 games. Finally, on top of all that, they land a B- offensive prospect, someone who could likely fill a bench role down the road.

For the White Sox, this would be a great trade. In 2005, the White Sox production from the first base and Designated Hitter spots combined was about .260/.335/.475. By making this trade, Ken Williams would be asking Lyle Overbay and Jim Thome to beat that line, which they probably could by adding almost thirty runs. And, as another reminder, don't forget what replacing Konerko and Frank Thomas on the basepaths will do.

Yes, in this proposed trade, Chicago would lose its penciled-in fifth starter, as well as a back-end reliever. However, this is where the dollars saved by acquiring Overbay pays off. Without including Marte, the Sox have ten returning members to their pitching staff next season. They could also choose to add Jeff Bajenaru, one of the International League's most dangerous relievers in 2005. For the twelfth spot, Williams would have the money to sign nearly anyone, who would likely (along with El Duque) straddle the fifth starter/seventh reliever spot next year.

Ken Williams had the audacity to trade Aaron Rowand, despite his presence on the World Championship roster. In that trade, Williams saw both the opportunity to acquire Thome, as well as giving Brian Anderson a shot at out-producing Rowand (offensively) in center. Williams must use the same methodology when considering Konerko, who at this point does not deserve to return to the South Side.

After winning the World Series, a front office must remember what got them there, not who; loyalty can only go so far. While it might not look as sexy to the sportswriters, Lyle Overbay is this offseason's answer, not Paul Konerko.

Comments

Great article. However, I think you put a lot of stock in stats and didn't account for the leadership that Konerko brings and the affect of loosing him and Rowand would have on team chemistry.

Seth, it's a point well taken, and one I should have mentioned in the article. This move would actually likely change the chemistry a bit, as you're moving quite a few pieces around. But the White Sox losing players like Damaso Marte, Carl Everett and Frank Thomas seems to offset the chemistry lost by Konerko and Rowand. Furthermore, Jim Thome is one of the game's great leaders, and I have a feeling that Overbay could come in and bond with players like Crede and Pierzynski, who were two of Rowand's best friends.

Chemistry is just a guess, of course, but I would actually guess it might not be as bad as it appears my way.

EGADS MAN! McCarthy, Marte and Owens for Overbay? Of course the Brew Crew does that deal...anyone does that deal. The White Sox are overpaying tremendously in a deal constructed like that.


Look, McCarthy might not look like a great pitcher, but he's got great numbers. McCarthy in '06 is worth more than Overbay in '06, not even considering their strategies. McCarthy's an arm that doesn't get injured, strikes guys out, doesn't walk guys, and has room for growth and improvement.


Since criticizing you without proposing an alternative is weak, I suggest that the sox go after Mr. Nick Johnson, and offer Damaso Marte and Luis Vizcaino for him. Either that, or the White Sox could pursue Brad Wilkerson for a similar package. Finally, they could even go after J.D. Drew--a package of Vizcaino, Jenks, and Marte might do it. These are just rough sketches of trades, all of them subject to change, but EACH AND EVERY ONE of them are preferable to giving up McCarthy in any deal.


The fact is, you're right on Konerko. He ought to be gone. You may even be right on Thomas, a player who's career may be over. Overbay is pretty good, but he's not worth what you're suggesting the sox pay for him. I'd rather resign Thomas and stick Thome at first than try to "pry" Lyle Overbay loose from the Milwaukee Brewers.

And by "strategies" I mean "salaries."

The point stands, though. Lyle Overbay is just not worth that cost. McCarthy actually improves the White Sox' rotation from 2005. They could get by with Thome at first and Thomas at DH, or Dye at first and Drew/Wilkerson in left field for less cost.

The deal just doesn't make sense.

I have to agree with Mike Q., the Sox would be crazy to deal McCarthy, Marte and Owens off Overbay. Give up a potential ace for an above average first baseman? That makes no sense. I think the Sox would be much better off just giving the job to Gload.

As for Konerko, overpaying him might hurt the Sox a couple of years down the road. But as a fan, that is a sacrifice I would be willing to make. It still makes us better in 2006 and keeps a fan favorite at home.

I wouldn't give up McCarthy for Overbay straight up. Adding Marte and Owens is insane.

Mike L: I like the cut of your gib.

I've often thought that Ross Gload--if given the chance--could produce similar numbers to Lyle Overbay over the course of a season. He's not as good, but Ross Gload is the essence of a replacement level 1B hitter, and he's no slouch with the glove.

Now, a whole season of Gload might be a bit much. But I agree with you that a whole season of Gload AND McCarthy is far better than a season of Overbay--and cheaper, too.

I must agree with the prevailing opinion here. Brandon McCarthy is too much to give up - by himself - for Overbay. In fact I would go as far as to say he would be too much to give up for all but the top 5 or 6 first basemen in baseball. This is a 22? year old guy who has dominating stuff and is going to (in my projections) win 12-14 games this year as a number 5 starter. By 2008, he could be a front of the rotation guy with 20 win potential.
You just DO NOT trade guys like that away...especially for mediocre players from a position where there is a very deep talent pool. Lyle Overbay may be a decent replacement for Konerko, as your article stated, but my thinking is you wouldn't have to give up nearly as much as you suggested to get him.

I think that the proposed overbay trade is very realistic. McCarthy can be good, but any young pitcher carries risk. The Mets sent Yusmeiro petit (who is a better prospect than mccarthy) along with a Mike Jacobs and underated infielder Grant Psmoas. I think the proposed deal is on par with the delgado and thome deals, and considering that while overbay isnt as good as delgado, and may not be as good as thome, he is younger and much cheaper. It's a reasonable deal, fans tend to overrate their own teams prospects. Anyway, the Brewers have made it clear that its going to take a very serious offer for them to trade Overbay, so even if you think he's not worth McCarthy/Marte/Owens, that's what it will take to get him.

Alright guys, I'll concede that Owens is a bad addition, and that McCarthy and Marte is probably enough. But there is just no way that the deal is bad for the Sox.

First, Marte has been considered a cancer in the White Sox clubhouse. He loses control in key situations, and bitches about his appearances. With Neal Cotts stepping up, this guy is totally expendable, especially because Jeff Baj is waiting in the wings. My inclusion of him in this deal was to even out the salaries a bit, while ridding the Sox of a cancer.

McCarthy could be great. The change-up he perfected in AAA this year could make him a potential ace. But the Sox need a first baseman more than they do a fifth pitcher. You have to give up something to get something. Remember, McCarthy could also not have enough of a fastball to succeed, or his arm could blow up. In Overbay, you have a proven commodity who could be had cheap for the next four years.

You have to give up something to get something. There is no way the Nats take Marte/Vizcaino for Johnson or Wilkerson, and no way the Dodgers take all three for Drew. And why trade three bullpen arms for an $11M/yr question mark, anyway?

If someone proposes a better trade, I'd be glad to concede my point, but right now, Overbay is the best option for this team.

Bryan said:

"This move would actually likely change the chemistry a bit, as you're moving quite a few pieces around. But the White Sox losing players like Damaso Marte, Carl Everett and Frank Thomas seems to offset the chemistry lost by Konerko and Rowand. Furthermore, Jim Thome is one of the game's great leaders, and I have a feeling that Overbay could come in and bond with players like Crede and Pierzynski, who were two of Rowand's best friends.

Chemistry is just a guess, of course, but I would actually guess it might not be as bad as it appears my way."

I'm putting this on you per se, but it appears that many of these chemistry arguments seem to basically extoll the virtue of replacing cranky black and latin players with good ole country boys who know how to play nice with each other.

I might be off base here; after all, AJP was labeled a malcontent up until he was the catcher on a World Series winner, and, regardless of race, Carl Everett is certifiable. On the other hand, I don't care how much bad chemistry Frank Thomas may or may not bring, it's hard to argue what his value to a team was during his peak.

One last tangent...I remember reading last year that Carlos Lee was the cause of much ill will and Marte was the victim of much of his ire (one anectote I read said that Marte purposely hit Caballo in the back in a spring training game because he used to be such a dick to Marte).

In no way am I trying to link race and chemistry. The accusation is enough to make me think about deleting the comment.

Frank Thomas and Carl Everett should go for baseball reasons. Or, better yet, they are all but gone for baseball reasons. Thomas was fantastic during his peak, and Everett even developed a bond with manager Ozzie Guillen. But both have been extremely vocal in the past, so it's possible that their exits help the clubhouse atmosphere.

Carlos Lee was the cause of much ill will, as you said. For that, he was gone. Damaso Marte has never been close to Ozzie Guillen, and for that, I think he's gone. The Sox won't be worse without him.

Hard to say about Pierzynski, though it's obvious he developed a bond with Crede and Rowand. I wouldn't want him on my team, but Ken Williams might have just found the right place for him.

Again, chemistry is all a guess. It's influence on wins is a guess, and a player's influence on the team chemistry is a guess. My point was that there is a chance the Sox will have made up for the leadership loss in Rowand and Konerko with my suggested moves. Nothing more.

Didn't mean to imply that this is what you were getting at. I was more interested in the fact that the good chemistry and bad chemistry guys in this partcicular case fall along racial/ethnic lines. The odd part is that the White Sox are one of the most progressive teams in terms of racial/ethnic minorities when you look at the mgr and GM.

Didn't mean to be accusatory, mostly just noting something that jumped out at me.

Overbay has made a name for himself by abusing Reds pitchers. In 138 ab's vs Cincy, Overbay has gone .428/.497/.732

Interesting articles, but you guys way overvalue Overbay. He has marginal power at a power position. He's great on the Red Sox or Yankees who have sufficient power elsewhere. But not on the Sox....or at least not at the suggested price. Marte, while not a great year last year, it wasn't terrible and over the last 4 years, is one of the top lefty relievers in baseball - certainly in the consistency category. McCarthy is an extremely live prospect as he is proven against ML batters, young and cheap. When you boil down Overbay, he is an AVERAGE ballplayer.
I don't think the Sox have much to trade except Marte (and Rowand), which is why hitting the FA market was important in my eyes...trouble was, it was a weak market.

I think that the proposed overbay trade is very realistic. McCarthy can be good, but any young pitcher carries risk. The Mets sent Yusmeiro petit (who is a better prospect than mccarthy) along with a Mike Jacobs and underated infielder Grant Psmoas. I think the proposed deal is on par with the delgado and thome deals, and considering that while overbay isnt as good as delgado, and may not be as good as thome, he is younger and much cheaper. It's a reasonable deal, fans tend to overrate their own teams prospects. Anyway, the Brewers have made it clear that its going to take a very serious offer for them to trade Overbay, so even if you think he's not worth McCarthy/Marte/Owens, that's what it will take to get him.

In what universe or parallel dimension is Yusmeiro a better prospect than McCarthy? They're about equal, and McCarthy has proven he can do it on the major league level, and make adjustments on the way.

McCarthy has no injury history of ANY kind and has pitched quite a few professional innings--he's a low risk for any kind of injury.

Look, the deal as proposed is simply ludicrous. Lyle Overbay is not Carlos Delgado, he's more Ross Gload. The White Sox are not the Mets. The Sox won in 2005 because of pitching, and Contreras and Garland will be free agents after 2006--pitching, and a young fifth starter--is exactly what the White Sox need. It's their game. They won't move anyone in their rotation if that serves to weaken their starting pitching.

The inclusion of Owens isn't what sinks the deal, it's the lack of understanding about the players involved and the White Sox. This deal is not fair, nor will any amount of tinkering make the deal fair until McCarthy is taken out of the proposal.

And I think that the Nats would talk about Marte--signed reasonably for three years--for one year of Nick Johnson or Wilkerson. You could include Vizcaino, too. And heck, why not toss in Valido or someone like that, the Nats have got to be sick of Guzman. That deal--Marte, Vizcaino, Valido--should work to get Johnson. Toss in Gload if you like.

But you don't give up centerpieces for complementary players, and pitchers--especially young, durable, and cheap ones with high ceilings--are the most valuable players in MLB. If you trade complementary players, you get complementary players.

Only the Mets do it otherwise.

I should probably make myself clearer--there's a reason you don't hear rumors swirling about trades involving any WS starters. There's a reason the team traded Rowand, and not a starter, for Thome.

The WS win with their rotation, their team is built around their rotation, and their rotation is off-limits to trade proposals--of any kind.

They're in a 'win now' mode, and they need their whole rotation to do that. The pitcher who might be most available--aside from Vizcaino, Marte, Orlando Hernandez, and possible Bobby Jenks--is Freddy Garcia. or possibly Jose Contreras. But it would take more than Lyle Overbay to get either. And if that's the way it is, then maybe the Brew Crew and the Sox don't match up for a trade.

Now, if Milwaukee was willing to accept bullpen help or prospects in return for Overbay, then you've got a possible match.

Bryan,

I have great repsect for your writing and analysis which is why I find your proposed trade so astonishing. Do you think the Sox would be better off with El Duque in the starting rotation with Overbay at first than with McCarthy in the rootation with Gload at first (and Gload is probably the worst case scenario). I sure don't. And that's only for 2006.

McCarthy should be good and cheap for the next few years and calling him "a fifth pitcher" is way off target. He could very well outlast every other starter the Sox have right now.

You ask for someone to propose a better trade and you would concede the point. But lacking better options is hardly a justification for making a bad trade. It smacks of desperation.

The Sox just traded away a lot of their chips to get Thome. Maybe they will not be able to put someone as good as Overbay at first. So be it. But you don't give up a starting pitcher with a very high ceiling away for a good but not great first baseman. The fact you want to throw in two addtional players just makes the whole scenario that much harder to comprehend.

First of all, the main point of this article was that signing Paul Konerko is a bad idea. From the comments, it seems as if that thought is generally one that people are agreeing with.

However, if the Sox lose Konerko, and they lose Thomas, they lose the only two players on their 2005 roster with OPSs of more than .850. Replace Konerko with Gload, your typical quad-A player that would be exposed in 500 at-bats, and you're losing quite a few runs.

If everything was the same as last year, except Gload was at first, the White Sox pythag record is likely projected to be around 87-90 wins. Do you fans really want to depend on the fact that they can outperform that record by 8 wins every year? That's scary ground.

Or, instead, you get Lyle Overbay, who is pretty much a guarantee to have an OPS over .800, and in the Cell, would very likely be nearing .900 territory. With replacing Rowand with Anderson, and bringing in Thome, your offense gains, if not loses. Then, you're looking at scoring 750 runs, or even 760 or so.

I know pitching wins in the playoffs, but you need some semblance of an offense to get there.

It looks like a moot point now!