Baseball BeatNovember 01, 2005
Looking Through the Classifieds
By Rich Lederer

Headlines: Paul DePodesta Fired. Theo Epstein Resigns.

So you want to be a general manager, huh? Well, there are four openings at the moment. The Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, and Devil Rays are all looking to hire a GM. The list of candidates includes Jim Bowden, Pat Gillick, Gerry Hunsicker, and all the other unemployed former GMs. Kevin Malone, are you listening?

The qualifications for the various jobs are detailed below.

Dodgers: Must be a good friend of Tommy Lasorda. Mutual admiration society preferred. Ability to work side-by-side with Bobby Valentine, our next manager. Knowing what it means to be a Dodger will please carpetbagging Chairman and President. So will getting on the good side of Plaschke. No computer experience necessary.

Red Sox: Working knowledge of sabermetrics is indispensable. Strong aptitude desired. Knowing your place in the hierarchy of organizations required. Call a plumber if leaks bother you. Bonus points awarded for being a former college baseball or basketball player.

Phillies: Must have been fired at least once by another MLB team. Any suggestions on how to void Jim Thome's contract a huge plus. Contractor's license preferred to coordinate movement of outfield wall back to more normal distances.

Devil Rays: If you've ever heard of the Rule 5 draft, you're our man. Ability to think outside the box to create something different than a traditional general manager's role secondary consideration. Manager interviews have already taken place. Having little or no say in who that person might be a fact of life.

By the way, don't jump to any conclusions about DePodesta's and Epstein's departures having anything to do with the decline or demise of Moneyball. Even though a lot of old school types would love nothing more than that, the use of statistical analysis in player evaluation, taking advantage of inefficient markets, and using one's limited resources as wisely as possible are all here to stay, so help me Joe Morgan. No? For proof, look no further than Arizona and Texas where Josh Byrnes, 35, and Jon Daniels, 28, now have corner offices. Both were schooled in combining the best that stats and scouting have to offer.

Tom Timmermann, sports columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, makes a great point about this very matter.

For those who think that the Los Angeles Dodgers' firing of general manager/whiz kid Paul DePodesta is an indictment of the "moneyball" methodology of baseball, a defeat for those who puts statistics over flesh-and-blood analysis, I would say that only applies if you agree that the firing of every other general manager in the history of baseball is an indictment of the old-school method.

Timmermann is the older brother of Bob, longtime SABR member and known in the baseball blogosphere as a respected Dodger Thoughts reader/commenter.

* * * * *

OK, here is how I see this game of musical chairs playing out. Gillick or Bowden will wind up in L.A. If pressed to name one or the other, I would say Bowden. Gillick (60%) or Hunsicker (40%) will end up in Philly. Hunsicker or Andrew Friedman will get the nod in Tampa Bay. Either Kevin Towers will land in Boston to be reunited with Larry Lucchino, his old boss in San Diego (see photo below of pending press conference), or look for Hunsicker -- if he hasn't been gobbled up elsewhere -- to be the one to worry about what to do with Manny. Sandy Alderson will appreciate Epstein's talents and offer him the Padres job should Towers bolt for greener pastures.

Towers 2.jpg
Larry Lucchino (right) introduces Kevin Towers (left) as the new Red Sox General Manager.

Longshot: Epstein remains the Red Sox GM. He never resigned from Boston. He simply re-signed with the Sox. John Henry intercedes, sits down Lucchino and Epstein, and lays down the law. Hey, it happened in Oakland.

[Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

Comments

so, in your estimation there's no chance of depodesta moving to boston?

I wouldn't say DePodesta has "no chance" of moving to Boston. Heck, he has to live somewhere. Remember, DePo went to Harvard. But, on a more serious note, I would venture to guess that he has no better than an "outside chance" of becoming the next Red Sox GM.

Is the columnist Tom Timmermann the same man as the pitcher Tom Timmermann?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/timmeto01.shtml
Er, judging from the picture I'd guess that not to be the case...

They are distantly related. But they are not the same person. I've seen both men in the same room at the same time.

It was at some restaurant in Anaheim in 1971 when the pitcher took my family out for ice cream after an Angels game.

If the Dodgers hire Jim Bowden, I'm going to blame this post for cosmically influencing it.

Gillick or Bowden will wind up in L.A. If pressed to name one or the other, I would say Bowden.

Oh God, no.

As for another of your points, that Depodesta's firing should not be seen as an indictmet of "Moneyball" philosophies, I believe that it should, at least, be seen as evidence that McCourt sees it that way. That is, Moneyball was in, Depodesta got hired. Smallball/Smartball is in now, Depodesta gets fired. McCourt wants, above all, to be in fashion.

Wow, isn't this exactly what I said in my last comment on this site? Maybe I need to expand my horizons a little. :)

"As for another of your points, that Depodesta's firing should not be seen as an indictmet of "Moneyball" philosophies, I believe that it should, at least, be seen as evidence that McCourt sees it that way."

Correction:

I believe that it should, at least, be seen as evidence that Lasorda sees it that way.

I doubt very much that Lasorda gives two hoots as to what methods are employed, so long as

1) he can be seen actively giving his input to it, and
2) he can pack the front office with like-minded pals.

That is, he wants what Frank wants: an echo chamber. DePodesta threatened that because he probably refused to listen to what the old gasbag had to say. Ergo, Lasorda found a knife and a place to use it.

The 2006 Los Angeles Royals. Ouch. Lasorda doesn't need to worry about his legacy; in my mind, the Konerko trade, the Martinez trade, and this last weekend have sealed it. Unfortunately, he's in the Hall of Fame now and nothing can be done about it.

McCourt wants everyone to think he's a genius. Lasorda wants to be surrounded by his buddies. This means that McCourt is going to be swayed by fads and public opinion (read: nice things said about him in the press) and Lasorda is going to be swayed by whoever is his buddy already.

If McCourt is listening to Lasorda, it's because he sees (or thinks) that it will earn him the reputation of a Guy Who Knows What's Up.

If the Dodgers hire Jim Bowden, I'm going to blame this post for cosmically influencing it.

"Ain't my bleeping fault, Lasorda's the bleeping guy!"

What are the chances DePodesta ends up back in Oakland with his old pal Billy Beane?

Beane spoke affectionately of DePodesta after the latter was fired and would probably love to have him back. However, David Forst was promoted to AGM after DePo left. I'm not at all sure there would be room for Paul unless his successor, who is highly-thought-of, left and took another job.