Top 20 2006 Sophomores
With a graduation to the Major Leagues, prospects escape the realm of subjective opinion rankings. They then enter a world of objectivity, when rankings are based far more on numbers than eyes.
Today, I'd like to take a select few Major Leaguers back to prospect lists. My first article for this site, one year ago, was ranking the top 20 sophomores of 2005. Data from the previous year, and PECOTA projections for the next five made it easier than my January rankings, but still far from perfect. As good as the top choice of David Wright looks good now, but the inclusions of Edwin Jackson, Alexis Rios and Chin-Hui Tsao do not.
Twenty-nine players from my 2005 WTNY Top 100 (including honorable mention) - my real prospect list - were rookies last season. Far more other players, not on the list, were classified as first-year players. The point of today's piece is to gather together all these players and find the best twenty in terms of perceived career value. The list...
1. Felix Hernandez - SP - Seattle Mariners
Everyone familiar with King Felix has a mancrush on him. Everyone. But no one has been as outward with their feelings as Dave Cameron, and deservingly so, as Cameron brought Felix to our attention when he was pitching in the Northwest League. Within a guest column for this site, Cameron glowingly went through Hernandez' arsenal:
Let's start with his four-seam fastball. At 96-98 mph, his velocity alone makes it extaordinarily hard to hit. This isn't a Matt Anderson "Hit Me" fastball. Throwing it with movement, it draws stares more often than not...
Felix has had success at every stop, including his stint in the Majors last year. Rich points out to me that Felix was sixth in the league last year in K/100P, a fantastic number for a player of his age. Really the only downside Hernandez possesses is a lot of potential for injury, which would certainly validate the Doc Gooden comparisons. More likely than not, he exceeds them, and should go toe-to-toe with Johan Santana for Cy Young contention for the next ten years.
2. Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers
The problems are fairly obvious with Weeks. First of all, it's likely that Weeks will never be a good second baseman, perhaps always providing negative value in the field. At the plate, Weeks also has serious contact problems, and PECOTA sees an average that, by 2010, will never top .280. His strikeout numbers should usually be over 100. But PECOTA also sees a 30-40% chance that, in each of the next five years, Weeks is a superstar. Rickie has great power for a player up the middle, and his speed on the basepaths should make fantasy owners consistently happy. When accepting his faults, we should look at Weeks as the NL second base starter in the All-Star Game for years to come.
3. Ryan Howard - 1B - Philadelphia Phillies
PECOTA is a pessimistic forecasting system, which should come as no secret to many of you. What is shocking, on the other hand, is Ryan Howard's ninety-percentile projection: .331/.429/.750 with 61 home runs. Wow. His top ten comparables include accomplished sluggers Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder and Willie Stargell, among others. Howard might be the best bet to have success in 2006 at the plate, but he also provides very little value in the field or on the bases, and his ceiling isn't much higher. The Phillies will be glad they traded Jim Thome, but I will say right now that when Howard's arbitration time runs out in Philadelphia, he should not be brought back. Now that is looking into the future, ladies and gents.
4. Brian McCann - C - Atlanta Braves
When Johnny Estrada went down with injury last year, the Braves were very bold to bring McCann up to the majors. Brian performed very admirably during that time, handling the pitching staff well and peforming well at the plate. In fact, he may remind some (old) Braves fans of Joe Torre, who at the age of 21, hit a very similar .282/.355/.395. In the next four years, Torre built towards his peak, culminating in an age 25 season with a .943 OPS. McCann has better power than he showed last year, and if your fantasy league hasn't drafted yet, take my advice: make McCann (at the very least) your #2 catcher.
5. Scott Kazmir - SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
There are two schools of thought in regard to Kazmir. The first side, the cynical one, thinks that Kazmir is a wild pitcher that will always be just that. His career can be good, but will not progress much further, as 70-80 walks per season prevents great success. Others think that control can be learned, and focus on numbers like Kazmir's 5.28 K/100P. Scott is a hot-and-cold pitcher that is very fun to watch, and his development is one thing that the new Tampa regime is banking on. If all they expect is a #2 starter, than there are far worse bets out there.
6. Zach Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Another weird PECOTA player. While the projection system likes the Bucs southpaw more than Kazmir for the next five years, it doesn't see a lot of upside: just a 5% breakout rate is given for the 2006 season. This seems about right, as Duke's solid start simply indicated that of a player with a low ceiling. He is a very smart pitcher who I was really impressed with after he carved through the Cubs, but his strikeout numbers will never be sensational. Look for this to always hold Duke back, who is just the player the Pirates covet for their ideal team. Good things are ahead in Zach's future, even despite an organization that lacks a great reputation.
7. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B - Cincinnati Reds
After using just two third baseman from 1996-2003 (Willie Greene, Aaron Boone), the Reds hoped Brandon Larson might take the job in 2004. When it became apparent that Larson was a bust, Edwin Encarnacion started to be hyped. For years, I thought he was undeserving of so much praise, a future solid player with limited upside. However, in each year, Encarnacion has improved, and he played very well in a Major League stint last season. While Andy Marte still is perceived to have more upside than Edwin, the gap has closed, and Encarnacion is on the cusp of providing the Reds with another long-term solution (and the best one of the group) at the hot corner.
8. Huston Street - RP - Oakland Athletics
We can sit here and penalize Street for being a closer, talking about how relievers simply don't stack up against players at other positions. Or we could sit here and say that, for a closer, Street's stuff doesn't exactly match up. We could say that he is a one-year wonder, a case of the fungibility of the reliever. But that would simply not give Street enough credit. A true competitor, Street has found a way to be successful in the most difficult baseball atmosphere in the world. His stuff is good enough, because his guts are unparalleled. He will go through some tough weeks, without a doubt, but Street is one fantastic player.
9. Jeff Francoeur - OF - Atlanta Braves
No one is more variable on the list than Francoeur. If I went by PECOTA, he wouldn't be this high, as the system doesn't see the Braves outfielder breaking the 4.0 WARP mark in any of the next five years. However, I'm also intrigued by his PECOTA comparables, which have Juan Gonzalez, Cal Ripken (?) and Sammy Sosa in the top five. In fact, there are even more All-Stars making up his top 20. Like Weeks, Francoeur has issues, and my guess is that he will be one of the Majors most hot-and-cold players in baseball for some time. But few people have a feel for the game than this kid, as evidenced by just how quick he became used to Major League pitching. His power still profiles to be prodigious, and when he's done, I think we will all have learned something about how to play right field.
10. Brandon McCarthy - SP - Chicago White Sox
McCarthy was simply a tale of two seasons. He struggled in his first trip to the Majors, in which I wrote, "Brandon will need to gain confidence in a third pitch, as his fastball doesn't seem to be fast enough, and his curveball has the tendency to hang early in the count." The club then sent him to the International League to work on his change, and when he returned with the pitch improved, the results were fantastic. Just eight earned runs in his final 42.2 innings for a sparkling 1.69 ERA, and oddly enough, a spot in the White Sox bullpen. However, as we talked about recently in our AL Central Preview, there is every expectation that McCarthy will get his starts this season, and by 2007, a full-time slot. Consistency in the change will determine how high his career can go.
11. J.J. Hardy - SS - Milwaukee Brewers
The offensive Daniel Cabrera, few players are gaining more pre-2006 breakout support than J.J. Hardy. One of those boosters is Analysts' own Rich Lederer, who wrote this long-term prognostication on the Brewers middle infielder:
Longer term, Hardy profiles a bit like Chris Speier. He has a similar body type with medium speed, a good knowledge of the strike zone, and above-average power for a SS. Speier had better range than Hardy showed in his rookie year but was eventually hampered by a bad back despite enjoying a 19-year career in the majors. For what it's worth, the former Giant was one of the best players in the league during his second season.
The cynical view of Hardy would be to say he is this year's Adam LaRoche, simply on the list because of a big second half. However, Rich has that angle covered, too:
There are four points of interest [in Hardy's bad first half].
I was never high on Hardy when ranking him as a prospect, going as far to compare him to Royce Clayton. I will gladly admit to being wrong, as Hardy is a fun player to watch that does everything right. Look for a solid 2006 to be the start of a wonderfully solid Major League career.
12. Curtis Granderson - OF - Detroit Tigers
Do the Tigers really appreciate what they have in Granderson? Are they really considering starting Nook Logan at centerfield this season? In 2004, Granderson broke out at one of the minors easiest stadiums to hit a home run in. His numbers were helped by an August that was disproportionate to the rest of his career. He was an anomaly, but this year, showed that his breakout was for real. Granderson might not be the next great Tiger, or even a consistent All-Star. But for a team like Detroit, that has been "rebuilding" for so long, he's the long-term answer at one position. PECOTA loves him, but I don't see enough power developing for a superstar to shine through.
13. Casey Kotchman - 1B - Los Angeles Angels
Talk about a player PECOTA doesn't like. Thanks to a few years littered with injuries, Major League ineffectiveness, and a lack of opportunity, Kotchman is not a player that is projected well. His top ten comparables are a sorry group, and his high for the next five years -- in terms of WARP -- is 2.6. However, it's a prediction system far from perfect, and in Kotchman's case, numbers don't tell the whole story. For years, Casey has drawn the same comparison: Mark Grace. His fielding has always been lauded, as have his contact skills. Some would say that Kotchman's power would eventually develop, and his offense at first would be way above-average. Others, not so much. At this point, I think Kotchman is -- for his career -- a 15-25 home run player. To be successful, he'll need an average upwards of .300. He can do it.
14. Jeremy Reed - OF - Seattle Mariners
If you think the White Sox defense is good now, try imagining a team with Chris Young in left, Aaron Rowand in center, and Jeremy Reed in right. Instead, Chicago was just too deep up the middle, and all three of these players will be in greener pastures in 2006. Reed will be the one of the group who plays in a drastic pitching park, so his play will be the hardest to judge. The one consensus coming from Seattle is that Reed is a great defender, which given their huge outfield is a big plus. But, he does play next to Ichiro, which must be taken into consideration. Offensively, he's probably got Mark Kotsay potential, which has become a compliment, if not a fantastic one. The star potential isn't there, but he can probably be everything that Granderson can, and like Curtis, is the right cog for the Mariners rebuild.
15. Ervin Santana - SP - Los Angeles Angels
I'm not sure we really appreciate what Santana has done here. Sure, Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey all had good 2005 seasons, and were more responsible for the Angels performance than Santana's. However, does anyone really believe that without Ervin, the Angels would have made the playoffs? For an October run, every team needs a player that steps up at the right time and replaces someone injured. That is what Santana did, and in effect, made Washburn's high price tag expendable this winter. Santana was on and off with his game last year, but had flashes of the lightning stuff that gained him notoriety in the minors. He's got a lot more bust potential than the names on this list, but he also could be really successful atop the Angel rotation.
16. Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees
Both at Baseball Prospectus and BTF, Cano was given about a 10% chance to turn into Hall of Fame baseball player. This is because what he did last year was remarkable, stepping into baseball's largest stage and taking the spotlight off a position that has caused the Yanks so much grief. Cano is another player that I obviously underrated too much as a prospect, not taking his 100 RBI+ season into enough consideration. But, really, is Cano's ceiling much above his performance in 2005? Do we really see a player that even has the possibility to be better than Weeks? Not for me, at least, as I believe Cano will teeter-totter among being an average second baseman for as long as the Yanks let him.
17. Joe Blanton - SP - Oakland Athletics
I can say that, with certainty, Joe Blanton will be pitching in the Majors for a long time. He's just that type of player, a solid starter with good durability and good enough stuff to have lasting value to Major League organizations. However, he isn't the type of player that will cause other starters to skip outings to get to. Blanton has succeeded in going after hitters, taking an approach similar to that of Street's, above. He had nice results in 2005, and should continue to do so this year without really being a factor in fantasy baseball. He is a good player with a lot of WARP in his future, but when it's all said and done, it could be remarkable how anti-climatic his career was.
18. Matt Murton - LF - Chicago Cubs
As a Cub fan, this was a difficult ranking. I, in a way, wanted to give Murton something back after he had such a good 2005. This was a player that forced his way into Dusty Baker's offense, a trait we should all respect in a player. He came out strong and kept going, having a remarkable season in left field. However, he didn't show any power. Barely any trace of it. In fact, besides home run contests, Murton's career is full of seasons without power. This just isn't acceptable for a Major League corner outfielder. While Murton could survive on becoming a 40-50 doubles guy, even that would be a step up. It will be his power that determines whether this ranking was too low, or drastically too high.
19. Nick Swisher and Dan Johnson - OF/1B - Oakland Athletics
On a list that features Ryan Howard in the third spot, it's difficult to drop a few players' rankings thanks to lack of athleticism. In that regard, Howard takes the cake. However, Howard's power is enough to overcome that fault, which is something that neither of these A's can say. In fact, Swisher and Johnson don't have any traits that are fantastic, but enough tools needed for success. This is very similar to my comment on Blanton, and in fact, could be considered a bit on Oakland A's players in general. This team is filled with solid players, top to bottom, that will make them a competitive team on an annual basis. But a World Series team? I don't see it, as there aren't very many players that could have fantastic career years. This holds true for Swisher and Johnson, neither of whom will be taking a large step in 2006.
20. Andy Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos - RP - Kansas City Royals
What, no Chien-Ming Wang?
Posted by: Mike A. at February 28, 2006 8:13 AM
I know it's a small sample size, but "no trace of power whatsoever" from Matt Murton? He did have 7 HRs and a .521 SLG in 160 plate appearances in the bigs. Minor league track record withstanding, I think that qualifies as at least a "trace." I think he's capable of 20-25 HRs over the long haul, and upwards of .480 SLG. Combine that with a .350 to .360 OBP, and this Cubs fan would be happy.
Posted by: MikeJ at February 28, 2006 8:33 AM
I'm surprised Robinson Cano has gotten so little respect for what he accomplished last season. He had a better offensive season than EVERY other position player on this list, plus he played longer, and in a more pressurized situation than the J.J. Hardy(s) of the MLB.
Outside of his first month in the majors (adjustment period?)and a dismal August ("hit the wall" perhaps after 66 straight starts?), Cano put up .337/.356/538 the other months of the season. That includes being one of the AL's top 5 September hitters and some big hits in the postseason. He finished the year with 48 extra base hits and is a solid fielder. A 23 year-old should be expected to improve over those numbers.
Can a player be judged on OBP only?
Posted by: Kevin at February 28, 2006 8:58 AM
How about Mike Jacobs?
Posted by: Peter at February 28, 2006 1:12 PM
What about Matt Cain?
Posted by: Matt at February 28, 2006 1:28 PM
" He had a better offensive season than EVERY other position player on this list"
Posted by: C Joseph at February 28, 2006 1:51 PM
I think Cain is still counted as a "freshman" since he hasn't accumulated more than 50 IP in the big leagues.
But how about Scott Baker?
Posted by: Steven at February 28, 2006 1:57 PM
Jacobs and Cain were both ineligible, because both will be considered rookies this season. If they were on here, both would have been features prominently.
Baker was #21, and really it was a crapshoot from 18-22. I'm not as high on Baker as most.
Wang would have been in the next ten, but both Baker and Chris Young were pitchers before him that missed the list.
Posted by: Bryan Smith at February 28, 2006 2:13 PM
Keep in mind that Murton will get to play half his games in Wrigley, which will be a big power boost for most of the summer.
Could you rank these guys in order of who you'd take for the upcoming 3 years?
- Ryan Howard
- Prince Fielder
- Justin Morneau
- Casey Kotchman
- Mike Jacobs
- Dan Johnson
How about this group, same question:
- Rickie Weeks
- JJ Hardy
- Jose Reyes
- Jason Bartlett
- Howie Kendrick
- Jhonny Peralta
- Ian Kinsler
- Felipe Lopez
- Jose Lopez
- Robinson Cano
- Aaron Hill
- Josh Barfield
- Hanley Ramirez
Wow... lots of 2B/SS prospects out there.
Posted by: Andy at February 28, 2006 3:40 PM
"This team is filled with solid players, top to bottom, that will make them a competitive team on an annual basis. But a World Series team? I don't see it, as there aren't very many players that could have fantastic career years."
Doesn't that perfectly describe last year's World Series Champs? They did have some guys with career years last season (Garland, most notably, and a bunch in the 'pen), but I don't think that anyone could have seen those coming.
I don't totally disagree with your assessment of the A's, but I do get the sense that you are selling them a little bit short.
Posted by: Bryan M. at February 28, 2006 10:27 PM
The power knock on Murton was a little strong. I usually reserve words like those for guys like Denard Span.
Murton's minor league Isolated Power is .142. That's not very good for a left fielder, but it's not the kiss of death either on a team like the Cubs. If Murton can hold down left field competently and put up a .780 OPS for $350,000 most fans will be satisfied with that. The Cubs paid Jeromy Burnitz much more for his .757 OPS and they'll undoubtedly do the same for Jones's .750-.760 OPS. Murton doesn't look like the problem to me. Big strikeout, big double play, no OBP Jacque Jones looks like the problem.
Posted by: APiNG at February 28, 2006 10:54 PM
I gotta agree with Bryan M, even as a Twins fan, the A's have lots of pitching. Zito, Harden, and Haren plus their bullpen. They have to be taken seriously in the playoffs.
Posted by: Andy at March 1, 2006 9:33 AM
Bryan, perhaps you should adjust your hyperbole on Murton's power after looking at this interesting breakdown and player comparison.
No trace of power?
Posted by: Andrew at March 1, 2006 11:30 AM
As an A's fan I was originally going to complain that you have Dan Johnson too low, but when I took a second look at the list I decided there are only one or two guys who I think he should be ahead of that he isn't (I'm not a huge fan of either Cano or Kotchman). It turned out what really bothered me was that you lumped Swisher and Johnson together, when they are NOT the same player. Johnson is much better at making contact, and for all the hype Swisher has gotten, Johnson has a much better approach at the plate.
At every minor league level since high-A, Johnson hit 20+ HR, 85+ RBI, 290+ avg, .870+ OPS (given, in hitter's leagues) and he turned in a solid rookie year. I don't think he's necessarily an All-Star caliber player, and I believe he will struggle at times this season, but I think it's ridiculous to say that he can't improve. Swisher, on the other hand, I could see hitting 30 HR, but he won't bat above .250 unless he gets some luck on BABIP.
Posted by: jmoney at March 1, 2006 1:08 PM
Nick Swisher hit .236 with a BABIP of .266...The league average BABIP was around .310...it seems relatively safe to assume that his BABIP will progress toward the mean...That would mean a higher overall batting average...
With his secondary skills that could make for a quite a valuable player...
Posted by: Matthias at March 2, 2006 9:49 AM
What about Jonny Gomes? How do you see him shaping up? As a 30/ 100 guy, or more like 25/80 for the next few years? How does Gomes compare to Brad Wilkerson, who everyone seems to love and expects a big year from?
Posted by: Robinson Checo at March 4, 2006 9:19 AM
My bet on Gomes would be more power, not quite as many walks, and less defense than Wilkerson. I'm no prognosticator, really , but my guess is Gomes goes 265 / 355 / 520, and Wilkerson goes 275 / 385 / 500, with Wilkerson's numbers inflated somewhat by The Ballpark @ Arlington, or whatever they're calling it these days. Wilkerson should be adequate but unspectacular in center, while Gomes, from what I've seen with my eyes and from the numbers I can recall off the top of my head, isn't any great shakes in right, but isn't giving back a win and a half like Manny Ramirez or somebody on that order.
Posted by: C Joseph at March 5, 2006 9:18 PM
How about Chris Burke?
Posted by: 2hip4tv at March 8, 2006 8:22 AM
How about Willy Taveres for the Astros? Where does he fit in the rankings? Playing everyday in front of an improved/ healthier lineup should be cause for increased runs, SB's and a year of experience should indicate a boost in OPS. Playing in Minute Maid park and starting in the WBC for VEN. should parlay into an exciting sophmore year. I see a future of Marquis Grissom type numbers. Speed never takes a day off.
Posted by: J. Phelps at March 9, 2006 11:59 AM
i still think navarro gets no respect.. he will be a solid catcher
Posted by: KLJ at March 9, 2006 4:15 PM
Cano is sort of an enigma that would have to be sorted out, he showed signs of greatness last season espically late in the season with the insane road games batting avg and the clutch performace for the Yanks in the ALDS.
But he also batted poorly early when he was called up...
He makes really nice plays sometimes and obviously have good physical capabilties to match he's good read, but he also fumbles some of what is suppose to be easier plays...
Batting for the Yankees is kind of a plus as you have so many great batters before and after you ....
I would certainly think he is at least worth observing though, he's errors on the field are obviously more of the fixable variety .. if he can correct those problems soon he is a very solid 2nd basemen...
At the same time he started slow this year at the bats again, it's intersting to see how long it will take for him to get back (to what level?)
Wang probably would have been higher on the list if he pitched a full season....
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen at April 10, 2006 2:16 AM