2006 Minor League Preview: The Graduates
As a hobby, following prospects is a lonely, lonely practice. Each year, dozens of the players that you have evaluated since their prep days become Major Leaguers and enter the world of objectification through statistics. They graduate from the minor league ranks, graduate from 'prospect' labels. Last year, 29 players that ranked in my 2005 Top 100 made such a graduation, becoming eligible in Rookie of the Year voting. No longer can we sit back and wonder whether Felix Hernandez' delivery will hold up through a full Major League season, or if Ryan Howard's power potential will be realized. These questions are becoming answers in front of our eyes. In part one of my series to preview the 2006 minor league season, I want to look at the best players that will be making such a jump this year. Thanks to preseason reports, I have faith that 16 members of my top 100 will be on a Major League roster on Opening Day. Some are being thrust into full-time roles, learning on the run, while others are being weaned into Major Leaguers. While still others (found at the bottom of the article) might still be on Opening Day rosters or be called up before June, these 16 are the mortal locks to become this year's set of graduates. For each of the sixteen players, I have tried to provide you with a multitude of information to discern who might be the best in 2006. First, the players are ranked in the same order (and preceded by the same number) in which I ranked them in my 2006 WTNY prospect list. After the player's name and organization, there are three categories given for each player. One is the role, the information given from the most recent reports I could find about where the player will start the season (fantasy owners can thank me later). Second, the 'projection/comps' category provides the weighted mean and top 3 comparable players that are found in Baseball Prospectus 2006, contrived by their famous projection system: PECOTA. Finally, I quickly conclude with a look at the player's Spring Training, and while it might not have much predictive value, will provide some reasoning for their place on active rosters. 2. Jeremy Hermida: Florida Marlins Role: Starting Right Fielder, #2 hitter 4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers Role: Starting First Baseman, Middle of Order 5. Francisco Liriano - LHP - Minnesota Twins Role: Back of bullpen, middle/long relief; 6th starter 8. Matt Cain - RHP - San Francisco Giants Role: Fourth Starter 12. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals Role: Starting Third Baseman, #5 hitter 13. Justin Verlander - RHP - Detroit Tigers Role: Fifth Starter 16. Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks Role: Starting First Baseman, #5 hitter 20. Scott Olsen - LHP - Florida Marlins Role: Fourth/Fifth Starter 22. Jon Papelbon - RHP - Boston Red Sox Role: Middle relief, 6th starter and 2nd/3rd closer option 23. Joel Zumaya - RHP - Detroit Tigers Role: Back of bullpen, middle/long relief; 6th starter 30. Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles Role: Starting Outfielder (CF?), towards bottom of lineup 33. Brian Anderson - OF - Chicago White Sox Role: Starting Centerfielder, back of lineup 36. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins Role: Starting Shortstop, leadoff hitter 59. Jeff Mathis - C - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Role: Starting Catcher, back of lineup 62. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers Role: Starting Second Baseman, back of lineup HM. Josh Barfield - 2B - San Diego Padres Role: Starting Second Baseman, back of lineup Without question, the sixteen players listed should be considered the favorites to compete for the Rookie of the Year trophies in 2006. They have the combination of what should be a full season's worth of playing time, in addition to a well-established prospect pedigree. Outside of this sixteen, there are two categories: the rookie fringe prospects, and the prospects yet to be rookies. For example, one player that did not rank among my top 100 prospects, though Baseball Prospectus gives a good chance to win the Rookie of the Year is Florida Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs. The former catcher enters the year with a guaranteed job and a PECOTA weighted mean prediction of .265/.324/.491. With Carlos Delgado listed as his second-highest comparable, Jacobs could be the type of late bloomer that foils any prospect list. The ultimate example of a player in this category -- though one who has a 0% chance of winning the Rookie of the Year -- is the White Sox new southpaw reliever Boone Logan. Officially being named a member of the Opening Day roster provides icing on the cake of a Spring in which Logan yielded just one run in 10.1 innings. I should mention, since I didn't in my Arizona trip review, that I did catch one of his 7 appearances, and his ability to provoke ground balls should actually help a bullpen that is currently near shambles. With respect to Josh Barfield, Logan is the story of the spring: a simple arm angle change takes a former Rookie League bum to the World Champions' Opening Day roster. There have been worse movies in Hollywood. There are dozens of players in this category, some of whom just missed my top 100 (Joey Devine, Josh Willingham), others of whom garnered no consideration (Dan Uggla). However, with somewhat lacking histories in the minor leagues, these players have an onus to prove they belong that most of the top prospects listed above don't. Many players fold under this pressure, succomb and prove they don't belong, while others blossom into everyday Major Leaguers. That's why we watch. Our final category was the one responsible for the NL Rookie of the Year race last year. Ryan Howard and Jeff Francoeur spent last September battling for the award, though each started the year in the minor leagues. The names etched upon the Rookie of the Year trophy is flush with players in this category, those that waited to make their debuts but caused little time in making their presences felt. If 29 players from my 2005 prospect list were considered rookies last year, and 16 definite graduates are listed above, I'll close today's piece with a look at the 13 prospects most likely to start the year in the minors, but to have their names highlighted in boxscores by June. For what it's worth, I believe the NL Rookie of the Year race -- so hyped with Hermida, Fielder, Cain and Zimmerman all in the Majors -- will be a runaway for Prince. As Ryan Howard proved last year, chicks still dig the longball. The American League is a harder race to handicap, far more prone for a late call-up making the big difference. Still, I can't bring myself to predict anyone but Francisco Liriano, who will tantalize voters in the second half with some of the game's most electric stuff. These are the players the minor leagues will be without in 2006, the players so influential just a year ago. In the next parts of this series, we'll look at those about to jump on board, and those ready to tantalize prospect evaluators this year. |
Comments
Don't you think Delmon Young has a good chance to be up by June and perform well?
Posted by: Bob R. at March 28, 2006 5:14 AM
Bob, I certainly considered Delmon for the last list, but in the end, decided against it. The new D-Ray regime seems committed to coddling Young, and after his poor showing of plate discipline in Durham last year, I expect him to be up until about the All-Star Break. However, if ever there was a talent to determine his own destiny, Delmon is it.
Posted by: Bryan Smith at March 28, 2006 11:16 AM
I saw Logan pitch about 4 spring innings. At first I thought he might be Thorton since they didnt announce him. 2 scoreless innings vs the Giants on Saturday looked real good, 1 BB 1 K, no solid contact at all. As a Sox fan Im pulling for the kid. Hideo Nomo on thursday on the otherhand, yuk...
Posted by: Eric at March 28, 2006 2:51 PM
What do you think about Kuo?
Posted by: sanchez at March 28, 2006 9:23 PM
sanchez, I like Kuo a lot, it's hard not to. He's an example of someone that really blossoms when converted into a reliever, and his talent was obvious last year.
However, spring stats can be funny, and I think the praise is a little out of control, as usually happens with one prospect a year in Dodgertown. He's definitely a future member of their bullpen, but I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have Jonathan Broxton, who I still believe to be more ready.
Posted by: Bryan Smith at March 28, 2006 9:51 PM
what do you think about the future of Matt Thayer?
Posted by: len blonder at April 10, 2006 11:47 AM