Love your daily notes. I didn't know about your site until this winter, when Bryan's article on sleeper-prospects was published at BP, so I don't know if you'll keep this up. Hope you do, though.

Great article. This is why Baseball Analysts is one of my favorite sites.

One guy that you didn't mention much, but has been moving up draft boards, is Brandon Morrow. He has finally harnessed his great stuff and is finally getting good results.

I was wondering what your take on him as a ML prospect is. I have heard that he lacks a good third pitch, and may end up as a closer. However, I have heard Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya as comps. Do you think that he can stick as a ML starter? And does he have that kind of upside?

I love this website and your insights into the draft stuff. I would like to get your take on Washington RHP Tim Lincecum though. Reports are he was up to 99 mph with a devastating CB while striking out 18 last week? I dont care if he's 6'0 or 6'7, that "stuff" plays in the big leagues!

Jerry, I've been a long proponent of comparing Morrow to Zumaya, though I don't see the comparison to Verlander. Morrow, like Joel, has some fastball control problems, but plus velocity (mid 90s) and a good second pitch (in Brandon's case, a splitter). His issues with command and lack of a third pitch make an eventual move to the bullpen possible, if not probable.

After a brief 2 game stretch in which Morrow walked 11 in 13.1 innings, he has given 9 free passes in his last 32.1 innings - not a great rate, but good enough to remain a starter. I like Morrow a lot more than I used to, and if Dave Cameron predicted the M's pick Morrow with the 5th pick in the draft, you better listen.

John Blaze, thanks for the Lincecum question, I pretty much expected it coming. After his 18 strikeout performance this past weekend, I think Tim is probably a near lock for the top two rounds. I wouldn't blame his relatively low status on his height, but instead a combination of his delivery (problematic) and workload (excessive). There is not a bigger injury risk in college baseball, I believe.

However, I hadn't heard that he touched 99, which would certainly change things. I'll touch more on Tim in my next college report. If interested, here's a video of his violent delivery:

http://www.calleaguers.com/LincecumTim0326.html

Great stuff, this is my new favorite feature at the site (though it is all good of course). I had the pleasure of seeing Daniel Bard live about a month ago (before his struggles of the past 3 weeks) and walked away very impressed. He pitched a complete game without a ball ever reaching the outfield: 2 infield pop-ups, 11 ground outs, 13 strikeouts, and a caught stealing. His final line was an impressive 9 IP 5 H 2 ER 1 BB 13 K.

I've always been a sucker for player comparisons, but I struggle to find a good one for Bard. The best comp I came up with for the Bard I saw on this day was Brandon Webb. Do you think Bard has a Webb type ceiling or am I way off the mark?

I saw Lincecum live for the 18-strikeout performance. Looking four rows down, I never saw 99 on any of the scout's guns, but did see 94-96 for the first 6-7 innings. By the 8th though, he looked gassed to me.

He did, however, have 7 groundball outs to go with the 18 Ks (plus one line drive right at the 3B and a warning track fly in the 8th).

His fastball is electric, and he really pitches everything off of that. His curve is very good, but his change is only little better than show-me (I didn't see a swing and miss off a change the whole night).

The scouts are definately right about one thing -- he's short and skinny. He's listed at 6', but standing next to 6'2" 1B Curt Rindal, Lincecum looked at least 4 inches shorter.

Random prediction: Supplemental 1st Round pick by the Orioles (2 scouts there), one season ending injury (Tommy John?), and an 8-10 year career as a dominanting reliever who fans will always want to see in the rotation.

Good stuff Trev, thanks for the accurate info. Seems like stuff always gets overblown by a couple mph's when you hear things thru 4-5 different people! 94-96 for 6-7 inn is still pretty legit. I remember reading an article on Lincecum a ways back that said the kid doesnt even ice after games and sounded like he has never missed a start in 4 yrs, so I gotta wonder if he's just a freak of nature...sounds like he's proven to be pretty durable for a little dude

What makes Brandon Morrow more like Joel Zumaya and less like Mark McCormack from last year's draft? Some of this sounds a little like overconvenient pigeonholing - every guy with good stuff and massive control problems is Joel Zumaya, like every highly touted 3b doing nothing for years (Teahen, Burroughs) keeps deluded fans hanging on. When making these comparisons, everyone seems to gloss over that Zumaya was a high schooler with problematic control, and Morrow is a collegiate pitcher with horrible control. For that matter, what's the ratio between "washed up minor leaguers who have great stuff but can't find the plate" and the Joel Zumayas? Very unfavorable I'd say.

For that matter, who was the last college pitcher who had walk ratios like Morrow who went as high as #5? Maybe it's recent, I can't remember. But it doesn't seem smart to waste a pick that high on such a control risk and a guy who looks like he's heading to the bullpen. You don't often see relievers drafted that high either. Just searching through the draft the last two years I don't see anyone with those kinds of walk numbers going that high. I do remember Mark McCormack's much ballyhooed "best fastball in the draft," his awful control, and him going outside the Top 30.

Excuse my vehemance, but Joel Zumaya seems like an exception to the rule type of guy, and I've been hearing a lot of exception-to-the-rule comparisons lately around the internet - Kip Wells is the next Chris Carpenter, Wily Mo Pena is the next David Ortiz, Mark Teahen is the next Adrian Beltre - it seems like a case of taking a player with huge flaws, finding someone who defies the rule of the flaws, and then make a comparison to them.

I still don't get the deal with Drew Stubbs....in the aluminum world he hits for OK average (.300 career average in 681 ABs), OK power (.515 SLG), strikes out quite a bit (he has only 19 more hits in his 3 yr career than strikeouts), and runs really well (even away from the turf in Austin).

APiNG,

Thanks for your question, it's a good one. After much thought, here's my answer ...

Prospect analysis, as I've stated before, is a really funny practice. We analyze, scout, breakdown, whatever these players to the finest degree in some hope of determining who will be the next superstar, and sometimes, who will be the next bust.

Problem is, as you allude, more often than not a prospect tends to bust. This is something that, at this point, I pretty much assume my readers understand.

PECOTA -- the most respected projection system out there -- derives its predictions through a set of comparisons. The system is notoriously conservative because -- again, more often than not -- it balances a lot of low-end comparisons with a few high-end guys. The former bring down the projection.

So, if I go into my article, my analysis assuming the reader understands that each player has a good chance to bust, my job is to balance that. There are many examples of players with a lack of fastball control, or no great third pitch that have failed as a result. I know that, you know that.

The comparison between Brandon Morrow and Joel Zumaya is given to you so you can balance the many busts with a high-end guy. If things go well, Morrow matches up well with Zumaya; if things go poorly, you know the other road he can go down. My guess is that when you see comparisons thrown out there by me, Baseball America, John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein and others, it's simply a high-end comparison presented to help the balance.

I hope that answers your question.