WTNYApril 11, 2006
Youth Moving North
By Bryan Smith

This past winter, the Chicago Cubs spent $38.5 million on three overpriced relievers on the wrong side of their peaks. They traded 3 blossoming young pitchers for a center fielder with no power coming off the worst season of his career. Right field was filled with a hitter lacking in big-time power and the ability to hit southpaws. And, inevitably, their two headline starters were deemed not ready for Opening Day.

By April 3, Cubs fans were ready to cry their typical, "Wait 'Til Next Year." What's odd, however, is that this call to the future suddenly provides genuine hope: there is reason for optimism around the bend.

Despite a little pressure from the front office, Dusty Baker's opening day lineup card featured two young guns: 23-year-old shortstop Ronny Cedeno and 24-year-old left fielder Matt Murton. While young pitchers have been in and out of the North Side for the past five years, recent history has offered Wrigley Field visitors few looks at prospect position players. Corey Patterson didn't instill very much confidence.

But in his first at-bat of the new season, Murton proved me (and others) wrong, hitting a 3-run homer that would lead to the eventual Cubs victory. His three-hit effort provided a glimpse to a bright future, one with consistent contact and steady, solid power. Cedeno has built confidence with great defense, an early season five-game hitting streak, and a 4-for-4 effort on the Cubs largest stage yet.

Those that tuned into Sunday Night Baseball were also lucky enough to see a 25-and-under starter that entered the big leagues without daunting comparisons to Tom Seaver or Nolan Ryan. Sean Marshall -- on my 2005 breakout list, though he saved his big jump for Arizona, 2006 -- became the Cubs fourth starter in the most non-Dusty move of the current manager's tenure. In the face of other, older (though not by much) options, Baker opted for a southpaw with a blend of poise and upside narrowly removed from A-ball. For that, he should be commended.

A quick glance at Marshall's line (4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 K, 1 BB) instills the image of a true rookie, producing nightmares of Steve Smyth for Cubs fans. However, Marshall was far better than his line suggests. His two-seam fastball was controlled and consistently down in the zone, producing 8 groundball outs. His cutter was a great mix, jamming right-handers, and his curve showed fantastic potential. He made one gaffe -- a belt-high fastball that Scott Rolen tatooed -- and was taken from the game too early to fix his own bases loaded mistake.

While Marshall doesn't bring with him a ceiling that matches Cubs pitching prospects of old, the poise he showed Sunday was a welcome addition to the Cubs future plans. Amidst the uncertainty of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and soon-recalled Angel Guzman are more dependable options like Carlos Zambrano and Marshall. It's a future rotation in desperate need of sixth and seventh starters on deck, without question, but it also has top-of-the-NL upside.

If Angel Guzman is the next phenom set to join the Cubs, Felix Pie is likely the most anticipated. The long-boasted young outfielder has started his AAA season magnificently, batting .500 through four games. In them, Pie has also collected two triples and three (for three) stolen bases. The 'raw' labels are starting to become replaced with 'ready'. While Juan Pierre currently stands in the way -- and his constant praise and considerable cost does pose an unnecessary burden -- one can only think Jim Hendry will provide a path for Pie when needed.

Offensively, Hendry has only become locked in to his most necessary players. As of today, both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee will be officially in blue until Pie's superstardom. While the development of Murton, Pie and Cedeno are all essential to long-term success, Lee and Ramirez provide the team with needed certainty. Middle of the order certainty. And Michael Barrett, fast becoming a clutch-legend in the Windy City, will be in town (at the very least) through 2007.

The Cubs are also financially committed to their bullpen, in which their three game-ending veterans will be in town until the end of 2008. Relievers, however, age slowly, so the Cubs will need to mix keeping Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry healthy while finding other cheap options like they have in Mike Wuertz, Will Ohman and even Scott Williamson. This balance, between expensive and inexpensive, is essential. Despite trading away possible lenders in Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto (among others), others like Carlos Marmol and Jae-Kuk Ryu should keep the Cubs options plentiful for some time.

At the end of the season, Jim Hendry will be forced to make decisions regarding his aging mentor (Greg Maddux), steady second baseman (Todd Walker), and a slew of other role players. The idea of trading Kerry Wood, and even Mark Prior, will undoubtedly pass by his desk more than once. The temptation of big-name free agents will have the Cubs making calls.

Chicago is in a good position for the 2007 season not because of the money they have to spend. Instead, it will be Jim Hendry's ability to make meaningful miniscule additions (Murton, maybe Freddie Bynum) and to cultivate enough prospects that will leave the North Side on top for some time.

Notes From Below the Surface

  • For those of you curious to know what Andrew Miller might pitch like, Sunday Night Baseball could have provided you just that. While Sean Marshall is a poor man's Miller, they are not without similarities. Both are big southpaws (6-6 or 6-7) known for inducing groundball outs via a two-seam fastball and cutter. However, Miller trades in Marshall's plus command and sweeping curve for some extra velocity and a tight, vicious slider. In addition, the North Carolina ace and probable #1 pick offers a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s that can catch hitters off guard.

  • Clearing up any preseason questions, my predicted breakouts for 2006: Homer Bailey, Adam Lind, Garrett Mock, Christian Garcia, Brad Harman, Mark Trumbo and Chuck Lofgren. The latter is the only player to not make the BP article I wrote in January, but I have since come to really develop some faith in the athletic, Indian southpaw. First week returns, however, have not been positive on the group. Both Bailey and Mock lost their debuts while pitching decent-but-supbar, while Garcia and Lofgren have yet to start the season. Of the hitters, Trumbo is a ghastly 2-for-14 thus far, while Harman and Lind are merely treading water. April be damned, I'm still advocating to buy low on all of these players.

  • Pitchers that have made big opening week impressions, however, include Adam Loewen, Lance Broadway, Humberto Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez and Mark McCormick. Loewen might be the most interesting case, as he needs a big year before his Major League contract kicks in. Sanchez could be the Arizona Fall League darling of the spring, and provide the Tigers with yet another live, young arm. Finally, an early season sleeper (damn, missed him!) is Tyler Lumsden, a White Sox pitching prospect that is healthy, reportedly full of velocity, and already dominating.

  • In case you needed reminding, Howie Kendick is really good. A nice office pool bet: what date does Adam Kennedy return to the Cardinals (via trade) so that the Angels can bring up their blue-chip prospect? And, certainly, I expect Kendrick's 9-for-17 start to change a few answers.

  • Finally, a kudos is in order for Ian Kennedy, who went ten innings this past weekend to beat California and notch his first win in quite some time. Kennedy was free-falling a bit on draft boards before this start, but his Jack Morris-esque effort brought back comments of his "bulldog" mentality that led to Kennedy's high standing. A big finish will make scouts forget about the month of March, but Kennedy could certainly stand to start striking out hitters as if it were his sophomore season all over again.

    Back with more on Friday...

    • Comments

    The Juan Pierre trade bashing at times seems unnecessarily shrill and overdramatic. What did people honestly think Juan Pierre was going to be traded for? Baseball is coming off a year when the White Sox's "small ball" style of play had every in orgiastic fits. In 2004 Scott Podsednik was traded for Carlos Lee. The Blue Jays sent two better arms than anyone in the Cubs trade and Gabe Gross for a Sean Casey type 1st baseman.

    There are any number of trades this offseason that looked far worse. Ricky Nolasco gave up too many hits and home runs in the minors. Renyel Pinto has cripping control issues and got bombed in two previous outings in Triple A. The Cubs didn't give up any "A" prospects so they had to compensate by piling on more lower tier guys.

    The Rangers and the Mariners were among other teams that were vying for Pierre. If Hendry had stuck to his guns and lost Pierre after losing Furcal, the town would have howled for his blood. He got the worse end of the deal. But he did not get "shafted" or anything else.

    The rest of the pitchers traded in the offseason were largely inconsequential. Jermaine Van Buren - no scout in baseball thinks his minor league numbers will hold in the majors. John Koronka - minor league career 1.50 WHIP. No thank you. Jon Leicester - just plain sucks. Todd Wellemeyer - see Jon Leicester.

    They got Juan Mateo back after people were crowing it was another Sisco.

    The Cubs have made horrendous moves, but this isn't one of them.

    I disagree with the bagging on the Howry, Eyre, and Dempster signings. Look at what Tom Gordon got as a closer. The Dempster signing is fine. Eyre - having Eyre instead of somebody like Ricardo Rincon or Mike Stanton is huge. The bullpen has long been an issue with the Cubs. Hendry fixed it. In other years any single one of those guys would've cost a 1st round draft pick. So he piled them on and got them without sacrificing a ton of picks. Now the team doesn't have to worry about signing relievers (hopefully) in the coming years and sacrificing high draft picks.

    I'm not even sure what you're basing your slams on Howry and Eyre on. Eyre is good. He was much better on the road, so no problems there. Howry has been one of the best set-up men in baseball the last two years. What was your solution? Continue tossing Roberto Novoa out there in close situations? Yeah. No thanks. And the complaints about overpaying. How much were they overpaid by? A million each? More important things to focus on. Complain about that ludicrous Rusch signing.

    Futhermore, Cubs' starters are rather infamous for how they don't go deep into ballgames. 110 pitches, 5.1 IP. Learn it, love it, because we're all going to be seeing a ton of that. Wuertz last year had a 3.81 ERA and a 10.59 K/9 in 75 appearances. He now becomes the low man on the totem pole. That's luxury. With pitchers that don't go deep into games, a bullpen of Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Williamson, Ohman, and Wuertz looks pretty nice. I know you cited an age concern, but it seems irrelevant, I see just as many young relievers as old ones getting injured. I know this site has the view that everyone old is bad and everyone young is good, but let's try for a little more objectivity in this instance. I'd rather have sagging old grandfathers out there like Howry and Eyre when the game is on the line than fresh-faced cherubs like Roberto Novoa, etc.

    Finally, I think you are too high on Marshall. He did get squeezed in the strike zone, but I did not see anything I wasn't already expecting. Since I'm the first comment, I urge you to delete the Andrew Miller comparisons - they won't hold up. It's like comparing Mark Hendrickson with Randy Johnson. You yourself said that Sean Marshall had poor stuff and was a destitute man's Jeremy Sowers. That was written like a month ago.

    By the way, the Cubs' 2006 starting lineup was their youngest since 1977.

    I could see Eric Patterson starting for the Cubs sometimes in 2007 if he keeps up his good work. Anyone who thinks Eric will turn out like Corey either hasn't watched him, hasn't realized the Cubs aren't rushing Eric like they did Corey, and probably doesn't know how to compare minor league numbers.

    Posted by: APiNG at April 11, 2006 3:51 AM

    Some more points to chew on:

    - Even if Juan Pierre puts up the numbers he did in 2005, he is still a VAST improvement over what the Cubs got from the leadoff position in 2005. If you don't get Pierre or Furcal, you have another season to look forward to of Jerry Hairston Jr. or Neifi Perez leading off in front of Lee, and removing Walker's pop and lefthanded bat from the lineup, or putting Cedeno into an ill-advised pressure spot instead of letting him relax and do his thing at #8.

    - Some people say Hendry should've gotten Furcal at any price. Fine. Sign him for 3 years, $42 million. But wait a minute. No way does Lee settle in negotiations for not being the highest paid player, offensive or otherwise, on the team. All of a sudden you're staring down the barrel of a 5 year, $75 million contract. Not smart at all. To say nothing of Aramis perhaps considering his opt-out clause at the thought of being paid less than a .780 OPS shortstop.

    - Everyone loves Walt Jocketty and his moves in the online community, seemingly. If Howry is overpaid, what does that make the shabby Braden Looper, who signed a 3 year, $13.5 million deal? Yeah. I'll take Howry and his salary over Looper's every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

    Posted by: APiNG at April 11, 2006 4:29 AM

    Matt Murton will be a star in years to come....mark my words ;)

    Posted by: AgRyan04 at April 11, 2006 11:37 AM

    Kennedy and Juan Rivera for Edmonds!

    Posted by: RevHalofan at April 11, 2006 3:19 PM

    Didn't you have Reid Brignac on your "breakout" list as well?

    Posted by: Jacob Larsen at April 14, 2006 10:13 AM