Baseball BeatOctober 21, 2006
2006 World Series: Tale of the Tape
By Rich Lederer

After two months of spring training, six months of regular season play, and more than two weeks of the division and championship series playoffs, the time has come for the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals to put their gloves on and square off in the 102nd World Series.

We bring you all the facts and figures, including the schedule (with projected starting pitchers), stats, lineups, and more.

DETROIT TIGERS
95-67, Finished 2nd in AL Central Division
Scored 822 Runs, Allowed 675 Runs (Pythagorean W-L: 95-67)
Won ALDS (3-1) over the New York Yankees
Won ALCS (4-0) over the Oakland A's
10th World Series (4-5)
Last Appearance: 1984 (Beat SD in five games)
Ballpark: Comerica Park (Park Factor - 99)

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
83-78, Finished 1st in NL Central Division
Scored 781 Runs, Allowed 762 Runs (Pythagorean W-L: 82-79)
Won NLDS (3-1) over the San Diego Padres
Won NLCS (4-3) over the New York Mets
17th World Series (9-7)
Last Appearance: 2004 (Lost to BOS in four games)
Ballpark: Busch Stadium III (Park Factor - 98)

The last time the Tigers and Cardinals met in the World Series was in 1968 when Detroit fought back from a 3-1 deficit and won Games 5, 6, and 7 to capture the title. Mickey Lolich won three games, including the finale on two days' rest.

SCHEDULE

Game 1: Saturday, October 21 @ Detroit, 8:03 p.m. ET - Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06) vs. Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.63)

[According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it's the first time in World Series history that each team will start a rookie pitcher in the opening game.]

Game 2: Sunday, October 22 @ Detroit, 8:23 p.m. ET - Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76) vs. Kenny Rogers (17-8, 3.84)
Game 3: Tuesday, October 24 @ St. Louis, 8:33 p.m. ET - Nate Robertson (13-13, 3.84) vs. Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.09)
Game 4: Wednesday, October 25 @ St. Louis, 8:27 p.m. ET - Jeremy Bonderman (14-8, 4.08) vs. Jeff Suppan (12-7, 4.12)
Game 5: Thursday, October 26 @ St. Louis, 8:27 p.m. ET
Game 6: Saturday, October 28 @ Detroit, 7:57 p.m. ET
Game 7: Sunday, October 29 @ Detroit, 8:00 p.m. ET

* all games on Fox

REGULAR SEASON STATS

Hitting:

NAME     G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR  TB  RBI  BB   SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
Tigers 162 5642 822 1548 294 40 203 2531 785 430 1133 60 40 .274 .329 .449 .777
Opp    162 5535 675 1420 263 38 160 2239 642 489 1003 49 35 .257 .321 .405 .725 

NAME     G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR   TB RBI  BB   SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
Cards  161 5522 781 1484 292 27 184 2382 745 531  922 59 32 .269 .337 .431 .769 
Opp    161 5496 762 1475 310 34 193 2432 735 504  970 63 32 .268 .337 .443 .779

Pitching:

NAME     G  GS  W  L Sv QS   IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB   SO  K/9 P/GS WHIP  ERA 
Tigers 162 162 95 67 46 88 1448 1420 675 618 160 489 1003 6.23 94.1 1.32 3.84 

NAME     G  GS  W  L Sv QS   IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB   SO  K/9 P/GS WHIP  ERA 
Cards  161 161 83 78 38 74 1430 1475 721 762 193 504  970 6.11 92.8 1.38 4.54

POSTSEASON STATS

Hitting:

NAME     G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
Tigers   8 276 44 82 19  1 13 142  44 26 47  3  2 .297 .353 .514 .867
Opp      8 265 23 62 14  0  8 100  23 22 52  1  1 .234 .302 .377 .680 

NAME     G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB SO SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS 
Cards   11 351 42 90 12  5 11 145  40 36 54  6  3 .256 .337 .413 .750 
Opp     11 363 33 83 19  3  8 132  33 40 70  7  1 .229 .311 .364 .674

Pitching:

NAME     G GS W L Sv QS  IP  H  R ER HR BB SO  K/9  P/GS WHIP  ERA 
Tigers   8  8 7 1  3  0  71 62 23 23  8 22 52 6.59 100.4 1.18 2.92 

NAME     G GS W L Sv QS  IP  H  R ER HR BB SO  K/9  P/GS WHIP  ERA 
Cards   11 11 7 4  3  0  97 83 32 33  8 40 70 6.49  93.1 1.27 2.97

PROJECTED LINEUPS

Detroit:
                             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+  
1. Curtis Granderson, CF    .260  .335  .438    99
2. Placido Polanco, 2B      .295  .329  .364    81
3. Sean Casey, DH           .272  .336  .388    87
4. Magglio Ordonez, RF      .298  .350  .477   113
5. Carlos Guillen, 1B       .320  .400  .519   137
6. Ivan Rodriguez, C        .300  .332  .437    98
7. Craig Monroe, LF         .255  .301  .482   100
8. Brandon Inge, 3B         .253  .313  .463    99
9. Ramon Santiago, SS       .225  .244  .262    32

St. Louis:
                             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+
1. David Eckstein, SS       .292  .350  .344    81        
2. Scott Spiezio, LF        .272  .366  .496   121
3. Albert Pujols, 1B        .331  .431  .671   180
4. Jim Edmonds, CF          .257  .350  .471   111
5. Juan Encarnacion, RF     .278  .317  .443    94
6. Scott Rolen, 3B          .296  .369  .518   127
7. Preston Wilson, DH       .263  .307  .423    84
8. Yadier Molina, C         .216  .274  .321    54
9. Ronnie Belliard, 2B      .272  .322  .403    88

FACTS AND FIGURES

  • The Cardinals have the second-lowest winning percentage of any World Series team ever. The lowest? The 1973 New York Mets (82-79, .509). The outcome? The Mets lost to the A's in seven games. The only other clubs with fewer than 90 wins were the 1987 Minnesota Twins (85-77, .525), 1997 Cleveland Indians (86-75, .534), 2000 New York Yankees (87-74, .540), and 2005 Houston Astros (89-73, .549).

  • The team with the worst record has won 2-of-the-last-3, 5-of-the-last-7, 9-of-the-last-13, and 20-of-the-36 World Series since the introduction of divisions in 1969.

  • The Tigers haven't played a game since last Saturday. The last six teams that started the World Series with five or more days of rest all went on to win. According to Elias, the 1991 Minnesota Twins, 1989 Oakland A's, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2002 Anaheim Angels, and 2005 Chicago White Sox all entered the World Series with five days off and emerged victorious. The 1995 Atlanta Braves and 1996 New York Yankees had six-day breaks - matching what Detroit has - and won the title.

    Seven of the nine teams in baseball history to start the Series with five days off went on to win. The only losers were the 1988 Oakland Athletics (to the Los Angeles Dodgers) and the 1990 A's (to Cincinnati). Both were managed by Tony La Russa.

  • American League teams have won six of the last eight World Series, with only the 2001 Diamondbacks and 2003 Florida Marlins winning titles for the NL (both by beating the New York Yankees).

    Detroit manager Jim Leyland sums it up best, "Do I think overall, by the looks of things, that the American League was a stronger league this year? Yes, I do. Do I think that it goes in cycles? Yes, I do. Do I think that has anything to do with this World Series? Not one damn thing. Nothing."

    Play Ball!

    *******

    Predictions, anyone?

    • Comments

    Tigers in 5, Pudge MVP

    Posted by: RevHalofan at October 21, 2006 10:41 AM

    Tigers in 6, Justin Verlander MVP

    Posted by: Alex Belth at October 21, 2006 10:53 AM

    Tigers in 6, Carlos Guillen MVP

    Posted by: Mark Lamster at October 21, 2006 11:24 AM

    The Cardinals break the 0-4 trend for the N.L. over the past two World Series, but the Tigers take it in six. My MVP pick is Kenny Rogers, since the Cardinals have problems against lefties.

    Posted by: Al Doyle at October 21, 2006 11:26 AM

    Since I was probably the only baseball analyst (and I use that word as loosely as possible) to predict that the Tigers would make the playoffs...Detroit in five.

    Posted by: David Gassko at October 21, 2006 11:38 AM

    Tigers in 6. MVP: Craig Monroe.

    Posted by: Peter Abraham at October 21, 2006 11:54 AM

    I don't see any reason to expect domination by either team. A fairly even series in my mind. I see it as superior Cardinal hitting against superior Tiger pitching -- an intriguing matchup in itself.

    I understand and agree with the Tigers being favored, but if I were a betting man, I'd be on the Cardinals taking the 2-1 odds (TradeSports.com). In other words, I think the Cardinals would win significantly more often than one of three series.

    I'll say Cardinals in seven.

    Posted by: Tom at October 21, 2006 12:13 PM

    Tigers in 5, Verlander MVP.

    Posted by: Steve Treder at October 21, 2006 12:14 PM

    Tigers in 5. Ordonez MVP

    Posted by: Derek Zumsteg at October 21, 2006 12:14 PM

    Tigers in 6. Carlos Guillen MVP. The question is, what will the Tigers do to upstage the celebrations from winning the ALDS and ALCS

    Posted by: Maury Brown at October 21, 2006 12:18 PM

    Tigers in 5. The MVP is often someone totally random who happened to have a good week, so I'll make a random selection and take Curtis Granderson.

    Posted by: Keith Law at October 21, 2006 12:31 PM

    I picked the Cardinals to win the World Series before the season started, so I gotta stick with my pick. I'll say it goes 7, and Scott Rolen is MVP.

    Posted by: Ken Arneson at October 21, 2006 12:38 PM

    Tigers in 6. I agree with Keith Law, the MVP is going to be that one player who happens to have an outstanding week. My guess is Brandon Inge.

    Posted by: Dave Berri at October 21, 2006 12:53 PM

    Detroit in 6. Kenny Rogers as MVP.

    Posted by: Bill Gilbert at October 21, 2006 12:53 PM

    I'm taking the Tigers in 6 and going with Carlos Guillen as Series MVP. He had a quiet ALCS, but I think he busts out against the Cards.

    Posted by: Jerry Crasnick at October 21, 2006 1:00 PM

    Here's a sentence I never thought I'd write: "Tigers in six, with Kenny Rogers as MVP."

    Baseball is a weird game.

    Posted by: Jay Jaffe at October 21, 2006 1:04 PM

    what the hell --- cardinals in 7; scott rolen, mvp

    Posted by: lboros at October 21, 2006 1:06 PM


    Tigers in six, Kenny Rogers the MVP.

    Altho my VORP (value of ridiculous predictions) is very Mendoza-like.

    BK of the PT

    Thanks for the invite Rich

    Posted by: Bob Keisser at October 21, 2006 1:10 PM

    Tigers in five, Guillen MVP.

    Posted by: Geoff Young at October 21, 2006 1:33 PM

    Tigers in 3. (Mercy rule.) Inge MVP, for defense plus timely homer.

    Posted by: Matt Welch at October 21, 2006 1:35 PM

    I give the Tigers a 60% chance of winning the series, so I guess that translates to six games. MVP pick is Carlos Guillen. My full preview is here.

    Posted by: David Pinto at October 21, 2006 1:50 PM

    Cardinals in 7, Pujols MVP

    Posted by: Chad Finn at October 21, 2006 2:05 PM

    Tigers in 5...Marcus Thames MVP (4 taters to complete Yankee ruiNation)

    Posted by: Repoz at October 21, 2006 2:19 PM

    Tigers in 6 - And like Dizzy Dean and Mikey Lolich the MVP of the winner will be a starting pitcher, Kenny Rogers.

    Posted by: Brian at October 21, 2006 3:29 PM

    Tigers in Six
    MVP Will be Justin Verlander with wins in games one and five.

    Posted by: Brian at October 21, 2006 3:55 PM

    Cardinals in 6. Eckstein MVP

    Posted by: Marty at October 21, 2006 4:01 PM

    Tigers in 5 games. MVP will be Pudge Rodriguez.

    Posted by: Mark Armour at October 21, 2006 4:07 PM

    Tigers in six. Kenny Rogers, MVP.

    Posted by: Dayn Perry at October 21, 2006 4:37 PM

    Tigers in 6. Craig Monroguez.

    I'm posting a couple innings into Game 1, I think, but I haven't started watching yet, thanks to Tivo. Feel free to think I'm a liar, especialy if Monroe has 2 HRs already or something.

    Posted by: King Kaufman at October 21, 2006 5:50 PM

    Tigers in six. Brandon Inge.

    Posted by: Rob McMillin at October 21, 2006 6:26 PM

    Way to toot your own horn Gassko, especially since I can name a few people in the comments section who thought the Tigers were a serious sleeper candidate :-)

    Tigers in six games, Craig Monroe has a big series for the MVP.

    Posted by: Marc Normandin at October 21, 2006 7:39 PM

    Well, I'm obviously late to the party, but I'll say Cardinals in seven. The Tigers are superior in pretty much ever facet of the game, but this is a gut prediction. The guy that sits next to me at work is a Cardinals fan from Central Illinois, and as he was sweating out the final week of the season, I said "watch, the Cardinals will back into the playoffs on an Astros loss, with their worst team of the last few years, and win the World Series." I see no reason to deviate from that.

    Mind you, I'm not rooting for the Cardinals. I hate Jim Edmonds as much or more than any player in professional sports, but it's a hunch. I dearly hope that I'm wrong.

    Posted by: Seitz at October 21, 2006 8:48 PM

    Oh, and just to spite me, Edmonds will be the MVP (the bastard).

    Posted by: Seitz at October 21, 2006 8:49 PM

    Allen Barra and Mitchel Lichtman sent me their predictions via email (but both prior to the first pitch).

    Here's Allen's:

    "I'm picking the Tigers in five, and since no pitcher will get two starts, I pick Magglio Ordonez for MVP."

    And Mitchel's:

    "Of course, 'predictions' are silly. As Bill James once said, 'I am an analyst, not an oracle' (or something like that).

    My 'prediction' is that the Tigers have around a 60% chance of winning the series (even though the official Vegas line is around 2-1).

    'Number of games' predictions are even sillier. Unless one team is a gigantic favorite, the most likely outcome is almost always the favorite team in 6 games, followed by 7 games. If the team without HFA is a big favorite, it is possible that the most likely (or second most likely) outcome is that team in 5. A sweep is always a rare event of course, no matter how big a fave (reasonable of course) one team is.

    That being said, my 'prediction' (most likely outcome) is DET in 6."

    Posted by: Rich Lederer at October 22, 2006 12:02 AM

    Glad to learn that my mother is not alone in her revulsion towards Edmonds. A "malingering brute" he is.

    Posted by: Miles at October 22, 2006 1:02 PM

    Tigers in 5, Ivan Rodriguez MVP.

    This was my pick before the Series started. I thought the Tigs would stumble in Game 3 against Carpenter.

    Instead it will have to be a lose the first game and win the next four 4-1 Series result. That is how the 1969 Mets and 1983 Orioles did it. An aside on 1983: I was trekking in the Solu-Khumbu region on Nepal. I asked a fellow American which team had won the World Series. He "helpfully" got it completely wrong, stating the Orioles won the first game and the Phillies the next four. Never trust a red head! A day later in Namche Bazaar I found an old copy of the International Herald Tribune with an article about the Phillies winning game one. At least I did not repeat erroneous results to other trekkers.

    The 2006 Tigers have a passing resemblance to the 1969 Mets. The 1969 Mets were seven years removed from a 120 loss season. The 2006 Tigers are three years removed from a 119 loss season. Free agency and money can repair a dismal team faster in the 21st century than in the Sixties.

    Posted by: Yetijuice at October 22, 2006 2:16 PM

    Before this qualifies as a postdiction instead of a prediction, I'll say the Cardinals in seven (ever notice how often people predict a World Series to go six games, and how rarely it happens?). I picked the Cards in March so I'm sticking with them. The MVP will be a pitcher, as usual. -- BD

    Posted by: Bill Deane at October 22, 2006 3:01 PM

    Ok, so I'm doing this after Game 2 which is cheating but I'm taking the Tigers in 7 and Kenny Rogers as the MVP.

    Posted by: DanAgonistes at October 23, 2006 7:45 AM

    Here are a few more late stragglers (via email)...

    Jim Callis, Baseball America: "Tigers in five."

    Fay Vincent: "Tigers in seven. Rogers."

    Joe Christensen, Star Tribune: "I picked the Tigers to sweep here, in print, and the readers have been having a field day throwing that back at me."

    Posted by: Rich Lederer at October 23, 2006 10:25 AM

    Tigers to win.

    Wish this season could last forever.

    Posted by: john watkins at October 24, 2006 11:13 AM

    Seitz / Miles: Please explain your hatred of Edmonds....Being from St. Louis I only know him as a loyal player to the city, pass his prime but still makes things happen... Is the hatred deep seeded pre-Cardinals?

    Posted by: Shannon Berry at October 28, 2006 7:04 AM

    i also think so...

    Posted by: MLB at October 29, 2006 12:14 PM

    Shock the world was right. I have been a cardinal fan for 30 yrs. I surely did not see this coming. Go Birds!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by: Jeff at October 29, 2006 7:47 PM