Categorizing Pitchers (Part Two): Relievers
As a follow-up to yesterday's Categorizing Pitchers by Batted Ball Types and Strikeout Rates (which focused on starters), today's article is devoted exclusively to relievers. The graph below includes strikeout and groundball data for every reliever in the majors (defined for this exercise as those with 30 or more innings who started less than one-third of the time). The y-axis is groundball percentage (GB%) and the x-axis is strikeouts per batter faced (K/BF). There are four quadrants with the mid-point equal to the average GB% of 43.30% and average K/BF of 18.63% for relievers. By comparison, starters had a mean GB% and K/BF rates of 43.8% and 15.88%, respectively. Interestingly, while the groundball rates were virtually the same, the average strikeout rate among relievers was 2.75 percentage points higher or 17.3%. Graph courtesy of David Appelman, FanGraphs. The average ERA among all qualifiers was 3.90. The average ERA for relievers with above-average K rates was 3.67. The average ERA for those with below-average K rates was 4.13. Similarly, the average ERA for relievers with above-average GB rates was 3.93, while the average ERA for those with below-average GB rates was 3.88. The average ERA by quadrants: W E N 4.12 3.55 S 4.14 3.73 As shown, it appears as if groundball rates do not positively impact ERA for relievers - at least not in 2006. Instead, it's all about strikeouts. This is potentially a very interesting and enlightening conclusion. The various results are also much tighter. As one would expect, the average ERA for each type was lower across the board for relievers than starters. But the disparity in average ERA between relievers with above-average and below-average K and GB rates is not as significant as it was for starters. ERA is far from foolproof as a measurement of a relief pitcher's effectiveness. Win Probability Added (WPA) is arguably a better metric to use when evaluating relievers. That said, reliever ERA isn't worthless and is a decent indicator of performance. Let's take a closer look at the results, beginning with the northeast quadrant and going clockwise. The pitchers are sorted by K/BF rates in the first three tables and by GB% in the last table. NORTHEAST QUADRANT (ABOVE-AVG GB AND K RATES) Name GB% K/BF J.J. Putz 50.55% 34.32% Billy Wagner 52.84% 31.65% Brad Lidge 43.85% 30.59% Hong-Chih Kuo 44.30% 27.52% Tom Gordon 45.28% 26.88% Bobby Jenks 58.79% 26.67% Luis Vizcaino 45.12% 26.47% Taylor Tankersley 44.00% 25.84% Dennys Reyes 68.99% 25.26% Mike Wuertz 53.64% 24.00% Scot Shields 51.93% 23.93% Scott Williamson 50.00% 23.86% Adam Wainwright 47.55% 23.30% Greg Aquino 47.86% 23.18% C.J. Wilson 49.18% 22.51% John Grabow 48.97% 21.78% Matt Thornton 49.33% 21.59% Ambiorix Burgos 43.32% 21.43% Fernando Rodney 56.54% 21.38% Tim Hamulack 48.04% 21.12% Pedro Feliciano 49.43% 21.09% Heath Bell 50.85% 21.08% Juan Rincon 50.92% 20.63% Aaron Heilman 44.86% 20.51% Akinori Otsuka 52.33% 20.26% Jason Isringhausen 43.83% 20.23% Cla Meredith 68.84% 20.00% Manuel Corpas 45.45% 19.85% Joe Kennedy 48.57% 19.59% Ryan Dempster 51.74% 19.59% Duaner Sanchez 52.32% 19.21% Brendan Donnelly 43.62% 19.06% Mariano Rivera 53.92% 18.77% Scott Downs 55.60% 18.65% As shown in the graph, J.J. Putz, Billy Wagner, Bobby Jenks, Dennys Reyes, and Cla Meredith stand out as outliers with significantly higher strikeout and/or groundball rates than the others. Brad Lidge's K rate (30.59%) is worth pointing out. I wouldn't give up on him. He pitched much better on the road (.202/.311/.271) than at home (.267/.350/.509). Anyone who dominated hitters the way he did away from Minute Maid Park can pitch on my team. SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (BELOW-AVG GB AND ABOVE-AVG K RATES) Name GB% K/BF Patrick Neshek 31.58% 38.41% Joe Nathan 35.62% 36.26% Takashi Saito 35.50% 35.31% Francisco Rodriguez 38.55% 33.11% B.J. Ryan 36.65% 31.85% Jose Valverde 35.43% 30.94% Jorge Julio 40.25% 30.88% Jonathan Broxton 39.25% 30.31% Jonathan Papelbon 37.35% 29.18% Logan Kensing 28.57% 27.95% Kiko Calero 34.90% 27.80% Fernando Cabrera 33.33% 27.73% Joel Zumaya 33.98% 27.71% Scott Eyre 41.77% 27.44% Mike Gonzalez 36.64% 27.35% Trever Miller 32.58% 27.05% Rafael Soriano 27.15% 26.97% Scott Cassidy 35.51% 26.92% Brian Sikorski 29.47% 26.76% Brian Fuentes 34.73% 26.64% Francisco Cordero 40.10% 26.09% Kyle Farnsworth 34.25% 25.95% Derrick Turnbow 42.38% 25.94% Will Ohman 33.53% 25.87% Justin Speier 30.07% 24.77% Damaso Marte 33.80% 24.71% Joaquin Benoit 37.27% 24.50% George Sherrill 30.30% 24.14% Alan Embree 42.95% 23.98% Jason Frasor 42.66% 23.72% Eddie Guardado 32.73% 23.49% Huston Street 36.95% 23.10% Dan Wheeler 36.55% 23.05% Joe Nelson 34.45% 22.80% Justin Duchscherer 36.88% 22.77% Ron Mahay 40.63% 22.76% Bob Howry 37.79% 22.61% Tyler Johnson 38.78% 22.56% Rick Helling 30.11% 22.54% Chad Cordero 35.32% 22.48% Jon Rauch 30.20% 22.45% Arthur Rhodes 36.43% 22.43% David Aardsma 36.99% 21.78% Rudy Seanez 30.63% 21.69% Scott Linebrink 39.37% 21.66% Jimmy Gobble 38.04% 21.62% Ramon Ramirez 40.72% 21.40% Tyler Yates 41.18% 21.20% Joe Borowski 32.50% 21.05% Vinnie Chulk 43.07% 20.98% Scott Proctor 33.00% 20.89% Kevin Gregg 35.66% 20.82% Rafael Betancourt 23.35% 20.78% Emiliano Fruto 37.14% 20.61% Randy Flores 39.06% 20.41% Trevor Hoffman 32.24% 20.16% Kurt Birkins 43.02% 19.85% Ron Villone 30.74% 19.73% Aaron Fultz 38.18% 19.56% Brandon McCarthy 38.46% 19.49% Kevin Correia 34.12% 19.32% Russ Springer 27.06% 19.17% Chris Ray 35.33% 19.10% Guillermo Mota 34.12% 19.09% Scott Dohmann 39.58% 19.05% Jamie Walker 30.61% 18.88% Joel Peralta 31.72% 18.75% Jose Capellan 32.06% 18.71% Andy Sisco 39.23% 18.71% The outliers depict why Minnesota's bullpen was so effective last year. Just as Reyes was one of the standouts in the NE quadrant, Patrick Neshek and Joe Nathan head the group of relievers with above-average strikeout and below-average groundball rates. Add Juan Rincon (50.92% GB and 20.63% K/BF) and Jesse Crain (55.19%/18.46%) to the mix and the Twins received 307 relief innings at an ERA of 2.35. SOUTHWEST QUADRANT (BELOW-AVG GB AND K RATES) Name GB% K/BF Christopher Britton 31.06% 18.55% Jeremy Accardo 42.27% 18.18% Armando Benitez 32.20% 18.13% Bob Wickman 41.76% 18.03% Jonathan Sanchez 35.77% 17.84% Jason Bergmann 31.55% 17.82% Keith Foulke 24.05% 17.56% Chad Paronto 42.60% 17.30% Neal Cotts 42.29% 17.13% Fernando Nieve 40.97% 17.03% Matt Capps 40.65% 17.02% Jeremi Gonzalez 30.77% 16.92% Bryan Corey 40.34% 16.87% Ken Ray 36.89% 16.72% Mike Stanton 42.11% 16.55% Randy Messenger 38.38% 16.36% Travis Harper 37.24% 16.33% Brian Tallet 40.76% 16.16% Roberto Novoa 42.56% 15.77% Brandon Lyon 42.86% 15.70% Tony Pena 39.22% 15.56% Josh Hancock 40.08% 15.48% Bruce Chen 32.56% 15.45% Danys Baez 39.68% 15.18% Ryan Vogelsong 38.02% 15.17% Esteban Yan 42.98% 14.91% Brandon Medders 41.88% 14.87% David Riske 35.97% 14.81% Wil Ledezma 33.51% 14.77% Roman Colon 40.31% 14.71% Fabio Castro 38.89% 14.40% Jorge Sosa 35.34% 14.31% Jake Woods 41.95% 13.95% Chad Gaudin 39.49% 13.04% Jon Adkins 40.70% 12.93% Julio Mateo 23.63% 12.86% Danny Miceli 42.42% 12.68% Brian Meadows 38.13% 11.25% Mike Timlin 39.65% 10.75% Brian Sweeney 39.27% 9.70% Sendy Rleal 40.13% 9.36% Except for a few closers who have fallen from grace, this is a pretty non-descript group of pitchers. I don't think I would want to bank on any of these relievers. Sendy Rleal should give thanks for having had the opportunity to pitch in the big leagues last year. It would be one thing if he was a left-hander but a RHP with a K/BF rate of less than 10% has almost no chance to survive at this level. NORTHWEST QUADRANT (ABOVE-AVG GB AND BELOW-AVG K RATES) Name GB% K/BF Brandon League 72.87% 16.76% Wes Littleton 70.75% 12.32% Chad Bradford 63.30% 17.86% Ryan Wagner 62.00% 14.18% Rick White 60.98% 14.49% Chad Qualls 60.00% 15.73% Fausto Carmona 59.58% 17.06% Scott Feldman 59.06% 17.14% Todd Williams 57.56% 9.23% Sean Green 57.55% 10.79% Scott Schoeneweis 57.50% 13.12% Shawn Camp 57.32% 16.16% Julian Tavarez 57.01% 12.99% J.C. Romero 56.97% 13.72% Joe Beimel 56.78% 10.17% Salomon Torres 55.24% 17.52% Jesse Crain 55.19% 18.46% Brad Thompson 55.14% 13.06% Chad Harville 53.49% 16.30% Christopher Sampson 53.27% 11.54% Todd Jones 52.94% 10.29% Gary Majewski 52.77% 13.61% Rick Bauer 52.77% 11.59% Ray King 52.67% 11.56% Edwin Jackson 52.10% 15.52% Mike Wood 52.05% 9.45% Todd Coffey 52.03% 17.65% Danny Kolb 51.22% 12.21% Brian Shouse 51.20% 13.22% Hector Carrasco 50.00% 17.27% Geoff Geary 50.00% 15.38% Lance Cormier 50.00% 12.91% Jeremy Affeldt 49.70% 10.71% Braden Looper 49.36% 13.31% Tom Martin 49.20% 17.29% Jon Switzer 49.14% 11.46% Todd Wellemeyer 48.92% 15.65% Jason Davis 48.66% 15.04% Matt Belisle 48.06% 14.44% Darren Oliver 47.76% 18.02% Mike Myers 47.42% 16.67% Macay McBride 47.31% 18.47% Steve Kline 47.20% 14.54% Jason Grilli 47.09% 11.48% Ryan Franklin 47.06% 12.54% Roberto Hernandez 46.97% 16.84% Matt Herges 46.88% 10.98% Oscar Villarreal 46.86% 13.85% Dave Borkowski 46.58% 17.39% Jose Mesa 46.32% 12.38% Saul Rivera 46.11% 14.80% William Eyre 45.62% 9.45% Elmer Dessens 45.28% 15.57% Rheal Cormier 45.28% 9.27% Matt Guerrier 44.96% 12.33% Matt Wise 44.93% 14.36% Manny Delcarmen 44.57% 18.52% David Weathers 44.55% 15.92% LaTroy Hawkins 44.24% 10.34% Ruddy Lugo 43.91% 13.22% Bill Bray 43.83% 17.49% Brad Halsey 43.61% 12.30% Craig Hansen 43.55% 17.05% Brandon League is intriguing. The groundball specialist could become a highly effective set-up man or perhaps even a closer if he can improve his K rate from 16.76% toward 20%. He made huge strides in 2006 and won't turn 24 until March. League was death on RHB (.178/.239/.238) and handled LHB (.276/.323/.362) admirably as well. In addition to the notes I made at the end of yesterday's article, be aware of the small sample size caveat when it comes to relief pitchers. However, the aggregate results are statistically relevant with more than 10,000 innings measured. |
Comments
Brandon League will be replacing Speier as BJ Ryan's setup man in Toronto. Some see the second coming of Duane Ward.
Posted by: Garth Iorg at January 9, 2007 9:13 AM
Rich,
Great stuff, once again.
I would also like to see how GB% affects inherited runners scored %. It would seem to be a given that K% has an inverse correlation with inherited runners scored %, but I'm not sure how GB% would relate (in lieu of the above data). I would certainly think that GIDP would play a factor, but bringing the infield in and other late-and-close game strategies might have unpredictable effects, as well.
Posted by: Redders at January 9, 2007 9:27 AM
Wow. Dennys Reyes. Honestly, I had no idea.
Posted by: Kent Bonham at January 9, 2007 1:02 PM
"Some see the second coming of Duane Ward."
And they all live in Toronto?
For the most part the hype about relief prospects is disappointing. Jose Cappellan. Joey Devine. Craig Hansen. Santiago Casilla/Jairo Garcia/Dr. Van Nostrum.
Posted by: APing at January 11, 2007 1:13 AM