Baseball BeatAugust 20, 2007
Ryan Braun: Greatest First-Year Slugger Ever?
By Rich Lederer

Ryan Braun led off the second inning yesterday with his 24th home run of the season to give Milwaukee an early 1-0 advantage although the Brewers later blew a five-run lead and lost 7-6 to the Cincinnati Reds. The Brew Crew has now dropped six of its last seven and 10 of 13 while slipping into second place in the National League Central, one game behind the Chicago Cubs.

Although the Brewers are only 35-42 since Braun made his MLB debut on May 25, nobody can blame Milwaukee's misfortunes on its rookie third baseman. The fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft is quietly having one of the greatest seasons ever for a first-year player.

Let's take a look at his year-to-date stats:

 G   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+ 
76  309  58  106  17   5  24   62  23  70  10   4  .343  .388  .663 1.051   168  

Due to a late start to his season, Braun is 46 plate appearances short of qualifying for the league lead in batting average and other rate stats. If the 23-year-old sensation had met the minimum, he would sit atop the NL in batting average (.343) and slugging average (.663) and rank second to Barry Bonds in OPS (.1051 to 1.084). His AVG, SLG, and OPS are all higher than fellow third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who is in the midst of another great season.

By not appearing among the league leaders in the newspaper every day, the former University of Miami (FL) All-America has escaped the attention of the average fan. With 338 plate appearances and 38 games to go, Braun is on the bubble as to whether he will qualify for the batting and slugging crowns at season's end. If he continues to average 4.45 PA per game while missing no more than one contest, Braun will just meet the minimum threshold of 502 PA needed to qualify.

Should Braun fail short, he still could win the batting and slugging titles under a rule that was put in place in 1967 by figuring the remaining at-bats as hitless. If Braun's recalculated averages are superior to those who qualified, then he would be awarded the titles. According to Wikipedia, "this policy was invoked in 1981, securing Bill Madlock his third NL batting crown, and in 1996, when NL titlist Tony Gwynn finished the year with only 498 PAs."

In any event, to put Braun's numbers in historical perspective, he is on pace to produce the highest AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ of any first-year player in the modern era. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound native of Southern California is in elite company with such greats as Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson, and Ted Williams.

   Player              SLG  Year  Age
 1 George Watkins     .621  1930   30 
 2 Wally Berger       .614  1930   24 
 3 Albert Pujols      .610  2001   21 
 4 Ted Williams       .609  1939   20 
 5 Dale Alexander     .580  1929   26 
 6 Johnny Mize        .577  1936   23 
 7 Joe DiMaggio       .576  1936   21 
 8 Frank Robinson     .558  1956   20 
 9 Zeke Bonura        .545  1934   25 
10 Johnny Frederick   .545  1929   27 
11 Del Bissonette     .543  1928   28 
12 Buzz Arlett        .538  1931   32 
13 Earl Averill       .538  1929   27 
14 Paul Waner         .528  1926   23 
15 Mitchell Page      .521  1977   25 
16 Jimmie Hall        .521  1963   25 
17 Wally Judnich      .520  1940   23 
18 Bob Meusel         .517  1920   23 
19 Johnny Rizzo       .514  1938   25 
20 Orlando Cepeda     .512  1958   20 

George Watkins was 30-years-old when he slugged .621 in 1930, the season with the highest AVG, SLG, and OPS in the history of baseball. With only 424 PA, the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder would have failed to qualify under today's rules, yet met the less stringent criteria of his day by playing in a minimum of 100 games.

Braun was mentioned in the same sentence as Pujols earlier this month when he hit his 20th HR in 64 games – the fastest to reach that mark since Albert did it in his 63rd game in 2001.

At 1.051, Braun's on-base plus slugging (OPS) would also rank #1 among all first-year players.

   Player              OPS  Year  Age
 1 Ted Williams      1.045  1939   20 
 2 George Watkins    1.036  1930   30 
 3 Albert Pujols     1.013  2001   21 
 4 Wally Berger       .989  1930   24 
 5 Johnny Mize        .979  1936   23 
 6 Dale Alexander     .977  1929   26 
 7 Paul Waner         .941  1926   23 
 8 Del Bissonette     .939  1928   28 
 9 Frank Robinson     .937  1956   20 
10 Earl Averill       .936  1929   27 
11 Joe DiMaggio       .928  1936   21 
12 Mitchell Page      .926  1977   25 
13 Zeke Bonura        .925  1934   25 
14 Buzz Arlett        .925  1931   32 
15 Johnny Frederick   .917  1929   27 
16 Don Hurst          .899  1928   22 
17 Bob Johnson        .892  1933   27 
18 Alvin Davis        .888  1984   23 
19 Wally Judnich      .888  1940   23 
20 Johnny Rizzo       .882  1938   25 

One has to sit up and take notice when a player is producing at the same level as The Splendid Splinter. However, Williams was only 20 when he broke in so it would be a stretch to suggest that Braun's initial season might portend a similar career path.

When we adjust for home ballpark and era, Braun's OPS+ of 168 would rank as the best first season in the annals of modern baseball.

   Player              OPS+ Year  Age
 1 Johnny Mize         161  1936   23 
 2 Ted Williams        160  1939   20 
 3 Albert Pujols       158  2001   21 
 4 Mitchell Page       152  1977   25 
 5 Dale Alexander      148  1929   26 
 6 Paul Waner          147  1926   23 
 7 Alvin Davis         146  1984   23 
 8 Del Bissonette      144  1928   28 
 9 Del Ennis           143  1946   21 
10 George Watkins      143  1930   30 
11 Frank Robinson      142  1956   20 
12 Curt Blefary        139  1965   21 
13 Johnny Rizzo        139  1938   25 
14 Jeff Bagwell        138  1991   23 
15 Buzz Arlett         138  1931   32 
16 Wally Berger        137  1930   24 
17 Jimmie Hall         136  1963   25 
18 Cuckoo Christensen  136  1926   26 
19 Gavvy Cravath       136  1908   27 
20 Earl Averill        135  1929   27 

If discussing Braun's place in history is a bit premature with more than a month to go, I believe it is safe to say that he is a virtual lock to win the NL Rookie of the Year. Braun has even been mentioned as an MVP candidate although it says here that he will have a difficult time beating out teammate Prince Fielder, who is leading the league in home runs with 38.

To Braun's credit, he has hit some big home runs this season. None was bigger than the game-winning, three-run homer he cranked against Brad Lidge on Saturday, August 11. Braun moved to the cleanup spot in the order last Tuesday and went 3-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs. With Fielder hitting in front of rather than behind Braun, it will be interesting to see if pitchers begin to work him differently. In the meantime, the man who wears #8 on his jersey is absolutely crushing lefthanders.

          AB  HR  BB  SO  AVG  OBP   SLG   OPS   
vs. LHP   79  11  14  12 .468 .543 1.013 1.556   
vs. RHP  230  13   9  58 .300 .328  .543  .864  

Small sample size for sure but impressive nonetheless. While not eye popping, Braun's numbers vs. righthanders are solid. The only disconcerting split involves his BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

Braun is hitting at home (.321/.384/.648), on the road (.367/.391/.680), during the day (.339/.378/.621), and at night (.346/.394/.692 ). He ripped pitchers in the first half (.350/.391/.663 ) and is tearing 'em up in the second half (.336/.384/.664).

The only place in the strike zone where pitchers have had mediocre success is up and in where the righthanded-hitting slugger is batting .273. He is hitting .324 or better in all of the other zones, including .556 over the heart of the plate and waist high and .583 down the middle between the knees and the thighs. Braun also hits the ball with authority to all fields.

Braun is not without his weaknesses. He has made 19 errors in 75 games and his fielding percentage of .893 would rank as the 14th worst among 3B with 100 or more games since 1900.

FIELDING PERCENTAGE           YEAR      PCT       G     
1    Charlie Hickman          1900     .842      120   
2    Hunter Hill              1904     .864      127   
3    Tommy Leach              1903     .879      127   
4    Harry Wolverton          1900     .881      104   
5    Otto Krueger             1901     .881      142   
6    Bill Bradley             1900     .882      106   
7    Joel Youngblood          1984     .887      117   
8    Emil Batch               1905     .887      145   
9    Doc Casey                1901     .887      127   
10   Jim Delahanty            1904     .888      113   
11   Jimmy Williams           1900     .889      103   
12   Roy Hartzell             1906     .889      103   
13   Sammy Strang             1902     .890      139   
14   Fred Hartman             1901     .894      119   
15   Jimmy Collins            1907     .895      139   
16   Jap Barbeau              1909     .895      132   
17   Nixey Callahan           1903     .895      102   
18   Harry Lord               1912     .895      106   
19   Heinie Zimmerman         1914     .897      118   
20   Jimmy Burke              1904     .897      118   
21   Charlie Pick             1916     .899      108   
22   Butch Hobson             1978     .899      133   
23   Gary Sheffield           1993     .899      133   

Interestingly, only three other third sackers – Butch Hobson (1978), Joel Youngblood (1984), and Gary Sheffield (1993) – have had a fielding percentage below .900 since 1916.

After leading the Brewers with five home runs during spring training, Braun was assigned to Nashville of the Pacific Coast League primarily to work on his defensive footwork and throwing. Not surprisingly, the prized prospect dominated Triple-A pitchers to the tune of .342/.418/.701. Over the course of 110 combined major and minor league games, Braun has hit .343 with 34 HR.

Make sure you don't confuse Ryan Braun with the 27-year-old rookie pitcher for the KC Royals by the same name. Well, I guess it is confusing. But the key is not to be mistaken by the two. It might be helpful – and more accurate – to think of the Milwaukee Brewers slugger as none other than Ryan Brawn.

Sources for the above tables: Baseball-Reference Play Index and the Complete Baseball Encylopedia.

Comments

Mark McGwire had a .618 SLG and 164 OPS+ his rookie year. He's probably not picked up on your list because Big Mac played 18 games in the majors the year before, not enough to lose rookie eligibility but presumably enough to not make your list.

Very impressive. This guy could be the next Mitchell Page. . .

I've got the overs on Mitchell Page, who was 25 during his first season in the majors. Braun is unlikely to become Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Frank Robinson, or Albert Pujols but could have a career that is equal to or better in terms of overall productivity of a composite of some of the other 23-year-olds on the above lists (such as Johnny Mize, Paul Waner, Bob Meusel, and Jeff Bagwell).

Excellent work. Braun is the real deal; few realize how historic his season is. Even Milwaukee fans don't fully grasp it, no thanks to the soft, inattentive Milwaukee media.

Superb article, Rich. I live near Milwaukee and have followed Braun all season, and I couldn't have written this one as well as you did.

Braun is the real thing offensively, but he's a minus defensively. This hasn't been mentioned locally, but a move to LF or RF might be in order, especially with Billy Hall available to play third.

Ryan Braun is all the rage in Milwaukee right now, though no one could have predicted this kind of production. Between Braun and Yovanni Gallardo, Brewers fans realize that the farm system is living up to the rankings it received the past few seasons.

I note that the MLB web site has the same bio for both Ryan Braun (Mil) and Ryan Braun (KC). They are both rookies this year, though the Milwaukee one is the only one who is in any danger of ROY consideration.