An Analysis of Terry Ryan's Talent Acquisition as General Manager of the Minnesota Twins
In modern baseball the general manager is ultimately responsible for the talent level in an organization, most importantly at the major league level. Given the relationship between winning teams and better players, general managers have historically been evaluated based on team success. While a pragmatic measure, it has two notable drawbacks. First, it ignores all the extenuating circumstances that go into a team's gain and loss of players: general managers operate under different financial constraints; they initially join clubs with far different levels of talent, and have different levels of autonomy to shape the scouting personnel, minor league operations, and the major league on-field staff. Second, simply using team success as a yardstick is a very coarse measure that limits our ability to understand the strengths and weaknesses of a general manager. What were his specific successes and failures that led to his club's record? With the recent resignation of Terry Ryan as the Minnesota Twins general manager, I thought it might be interesting to take an objective look at some aspects of the position that can be measured. Using the Retrosheet transactions database maintained by Tom Ruane, I evaluated all the moves made by the Twins after Ryan's hiring in September, 1994 through the end of 2005. Obviously this type of analysis assigns the ultimate responsibility for all transactions--rightly or wrongly--to the general manager. For a number of reasons I did not include an analysis of the draft. For most types of transactions one can compare value received to value surrendered. To evaluate the productivity of the amateur draft and the farm system, however, one needs to calculate the productivity of other franchises to use as a baseline--this is a study for another time. To evaluate the general manager this analysis reviews the value of players lost via free agency (Fg), release (R), the expansion draft (X), waivers (W) and trades (T), and players acquired via amateur free agency (Fa), free agency (F), waivers (W) and trades (T). Unfortunately this is not quite as straight forward as it might be: for example players who become free agents and are subsequently re-signed; in the database these players are shown as both lost via free agency and gained through free agency. The net effect is zero, but it increases the total volume of talent coming and going: for instance, Brad Radke's re-signing after the 2004 season. Another example is players who come and go before they become established major leaguers. As an illustration of this issue, Casey Blake was claimed on waivers, lost on waivers, reclaimed on waivers, and subsequently released before he achieved any significant major league playing time. While it makes sense to account for them this way--each transaction needs to be evaluated on its own merits--these multiple moves can make the talent velocity appear greater than it might otherwise be. Of course one also needs some way to value the players involved in the transactions in order to assess them. Win Shares is a metric created by Bill James that works well for this purpose. Using a complex set of formulas, it allocates team wins to individual players. The method allocates three win shares for each win; for example, 300 win shares will be allocated to the players on a 100 win team. As a benchmark, a 30 win share season is typically MVP caliber, and 20 win shares is an all-star season. For each player involved in a transaction, I calculated the win shares he would earn over the balance of his career. For players still active, win shares are calculated through the 2006 season (obviously, some of these players will significantly increase their career totals). So, what does Ryan's scorecard look like? The table below summarizes the cumulative win shares surrendered and gained in all the Twins transactions from the fall of 1994 through the end of 2005. Win Shares from Twins Transactions, Fall 1994 - 2005 Type Type Description From Min To Min ----------------------------------------------------- Fg Free Agency Granted 430 - R Released 251 - X Expansion Draft 93 - Fa Amateur Free Agent Signing - 111 F Free Agent Signing - 656 W Waiver Pick 60 154 T Trade 807 922 ----------------------------------------------------- Total 1641 1842 Despite working under relatively tight financial constraints for most of his tenure, Ryan lost surprisingly little talent to free agency. No player with more than 50 win shares remaining left the major league roster as a free agent. Only Travis Lee, one of four amateur draftees declared free agents because they were not tendered a contract within the mandatory 15-day period, produced more than 50 win shares over the remainder of his career. Surprisingly, Ryan's two most significant personnel blunders resulted from releasing two players with significant major league ability, and both came after the 2002 season. In October he released Casey Blake, who would go on to become a valuable contributor with the Indians. More significantly, in December Ryan compounded his error by releasing David Ortiz, who became a perennial MVP contender. Both could have played important roles on the Twins competitive teams from 2003 through 2006. The Twins did not really lose any significant players through waivers (although technically they lost and then regained Blake over a three-week period). The loss of Damian Miller to the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft proved surprisingly costly. Miller went on to a number of seasons as a quality major league catcher. Given his financial constraints, is not surprising that Ryan never really exploited the free agent market. Over his tenure he signed only one major league free agent, Kenny Rogers, with over 50 win shares remaining. Some of his most worthwhile signings included re-signing his own declining veterans on a short-term basis, such as Radke and Shannon Stewart, and finding useful role players at a reasonable price, such as Mike Redmond. Minnesota has not kept up a sufficient Latin American presence. In the mid-1990s the Twins landed two players who would develop into useful major leaguers--Luis Rivas and Juan Rincon--but have signed none of consequence since. Ryan's staff did smartly pluck Bobby Kielty from the U.S. amateur ranks. The Twins have neither lost nor claimed any significant players on waivers except for Blake, as noted previously. Ryan distinguished himself most clearly in his ability to make quality trades. His worst trade, in terms of value differential, was the swap of Todd Walker to Colorado for two players with less than two win shares remaining in their careers. In Ryan's defense, with this transaction the Twins also received cash. On the other hand, his regime can be credited with several outstanding deals. The swap of A.J. Pierzynski and cash for Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, and Joe Nathan has been widely hailed, but a number of others were also highly productive. He acquired Johan Santana for Jared Camp in a trade of Rule 5 draft picks. Ryan landed Eric Milton and Cristian Guzman for Chuck Knoblauch--although Knoblauch's unexpectedly quick falloff makes this trade appear more prescient than it probably was. Trading Dave Hollins for David Ortiz was also a great move, unfortunately later vitiated by the latter's release. A general manager's job entails more than talent acquisition, and sometimes a team is in a position where the key decisions involve sorting out the talent (including possibly surrendering more talent than one receives) to alleviate an abundance at one position and a dearth at another. But the luxury of rearranging one's talent first requires building a solid talent base. Ryan consistently surrendered less talent than he received as he built the team that captured four division championships between 2002 and 2006. Appendix The table below summarizes all Minnesota Twin transactions of at least 10 win shares between the fall of 1994 when Terry Ryan became the GM and the end of 2005. The table should be moderately self-explanatory, but a couple of comments may be in order for trades. The "TransID" column ties the players to a particular transaction, so that all players identified with the same TransID were part of the same trade. A few transactions identified as a trade show only one player; in these instances the other players involved did not make the major leagues. Min Twins Transactions (>10 WS), Fall 1994 - 2005 DateID TransID Type Player Team From Min To Min 19960619 22943 Fg Lee, Travis 72.8 19961004 33661 Fg Reboulet, Jeff 26.6 19981029 39348 Fg Steinbach, Terry 11.9 19981221 26718 Fg Meares, Pat 13.2 19991007 8367 Fg Cordova, Marty 23.1 19991015 12658 Fg Fiore, Tony 10.1 20011008 26077 Fg McCracken, Quinton 19.6 20011019 6461 Fg Carrasco, Hector 19.5 20011105 20603 Fg Jones, Todd 35.6 20031026 15777 Fg Guardado, Eddie 17.5 20031026 39476 Fg Stewart, Shannon 30.1 20031027 17104 Fg Hawkins, LaTroy 20.6 20031028 14799 Fg Gomez, Chris 16.2 20031029 35073 Fg Rogers, Kenny 46.9 20041028 3435 Fg Blanco, Henry 11.3 20041028 33228 Fg Radke, Brad 21.5 20041101 21947 Fg Koskie, Corey 16.5 20051028 20511 Fg Jones, Jacque 16.9 19950713 39482 R Stewart, Scott 15.3 19960401 13631 R Fultz, Aaron 18.9 19970516 30220 R Olson, Gregg 21.5 19981003 34439 R Ritchie, Todd 32.8 20001220 23436 R Lincoln, Mike 13.5 20021014 3412 R Blake, Casey 48.1 20021216 30458 R Ortiz, David 101.4 19971118 27370 X Miller, Damian ARI 92.5 19951009 34458 Fa Rivas, Luis 24.7 19961104 34373 Fa Rincon, Juan 35.6 19990216 21343 Fa Kielty, Bobby 50.3 19950613 39481 F Stewart, Scott 15.3 19951205 27848 F Molitor, Paul 40.7 19951208 28907 F Myers, Greg 24.0 19951211 302 F Aguilera, Rick 31.2 19960102 18388 F Hollins, Dave 23.8 19960129 21020 F Kelly, Roberto 24.6 19961205 39347 F Steinbach, Terry 28.6 19961212 40617 F Tewksbury, Bob 16.8 19961218 40139 F Swindell, Greg 29.0 19961220 30219 F Olson, Gregg 21.5 19970124 7751 F Colbrunn, Greg 27.8 19971216 28221 F Morgan, Mike 13.6 19971223 14199 F Gates, Brent 12.0 19980114 27003 F Merced, Orlando 18.3 19990104 39349 F Steinbach, Terry 11.9 19990127 43376 F Wells, Bob 24.3 19990603 12657 F Fiore, Tony 10.1 20000401 27793 F Mohr, Dustan 31.2 20001219 32882 F Prince, Tom 12.1 20010330 6460 F Carrasco, Hector 23.9 20010413 26076 F McCracken, Quinton 19.7 20010530 12661 F Fiore, Tony 10.1 20030109 14798 F Gomez, Chris 18.5 20030317 35072 F Rogers, Kenny 57.6 20031207 39477 F Stewart, Shannon 30.1 20031218 3434 F Blanco, Henry 16.7 20040108 13638 F Fultz, Aaron 14.9 20041123 6724 F Castro, Juan 13.1 20041124 33691 F Redmond, Mike 12.9 20041207 33229 F Radke, Brad 21.5 19941104 34714 W Robertson, Rich PIT 15.0 19980403 6456 W Carrasco, Hector ARI 31.7 20000523 3409 W Blake, Casey TOR 48.4 20010921 3410 W Blake, Casey BAL 48.2 20011012 3411 W Blake, Casey BAL 48.2 20031120 15803 W Guerrier, Matt PIT 10.7 20041014 13639 W Fultz, Aaron PHI 12.0 19950608 49355 T Courtright, John CIN 0.0 19950608 49355 T McCarty, David CIN 18.0 19950706 49364 T Rodriguez, Frank BOS 21.2 19950706 49364 T Aguilera, Rick BOS 31.2 19950707 49365 T Klingenbeck, Scott BAL 0.0 19950707 49365 T Erickson, Scott BAL 54.0 19950731 49386 T Coomer, Ron LAN 53.1 19950731 49386 T Hansell, Greg LAN 6.3 19950731 49386 T Parra, Jose LAN 5.3 19950731 49386 T Guthrie, Mark LAN 25.9 19950731 49386 T Tapani, Kevin LAN 49.4 19950919 49365 T Bartee, Kimera BAL 2.9 19951030 49386 T Latham, Chris LAN 3.8 19960826 49492 T Mahomes, Pat BOS 14.3 19960829 49496 T Hollins, Dave SEA 23.8 19960913 49496 T Ortiz, David SEA 137.7 19961211 49520 T Walbeck, Matt DET 18.9 19961217 49492 T Looney, Brian BOS 0.0 19970814 49587 T Colbrunn, Greg ATL 27.8 19970820 49591 T Kelly, Roberto SEA 15.4 19970905 49597 T Myers, Greg ATL 17.6 19971009 49591 T Mays, Joe SEA 44.7 19971212 49630 T Becker, Rich NYN 0.0 19971212 49630 T Ochoa, Alex NYN 30.3 19980206 49642 T Knoblauch, Chuck NYA 69.7 19980206 49642 T Buchanan, Brian NYA 9.8 19980206 49642 T Guzman, Cristian NYA 79.7 19980206 49642 T Milton, Eric NYA 68.4 19980206 49642 T Mota, Danny NYA 0.0 19980731 49693 T Barnes, John BOS 0.0 19980731 49693 T Kinney, Matt BOS 7.3 19980731 49693 T Merced, Orlando BOS 18.3 19980731 49693 T Swindell, Greg BOS 19.3 19980825 49709 T Morgan, Mike CHN 13.6 19981103 49709 T Downs, Scott CHN 11.6 19981214 49735 T Ochoa, Alex MIL 27.5 19990521 49771 T Lohse, Kyle CHN 41.5 19990521 49771 T Ryan, Jason CHN 1.9 19990521 49771 T Aguilera, Rick CHN 4.3 19990521 49771 T Downs, Scott CHN 11.6 19991213 49836 T Santana, Johan FLO 101.1 20000715 49891 T Sears, Todd COL 1.9 20000715 49891 T Huskey, Butch COL 0.0 20000715 49891 T Walker, Todd COL 74.5 20000909 49936 T Ford, Lew BOS 41.6 20000909 49936 T Carrasco, Hector BOS 23.9 20010328 49973 T Frias, Hanley ARI 0.0 20010328 49973 T Moeller, Chad ARI 16.4 20010728 50015 T Jones, Todd DET 35.6 20010728 50015 T Redman, Mark DET 40.6 20010730 50017 T Lawton, Matt NYN 48.9 20010730 50017 T Reed, Rick NYN 18.7 20020712 50111 T Buchanan, Brian SDN 8.8 20020712 50111 T Bartlett, Jason SDN 18.5 20021115 50142 T Kinney, Matt MIL 5.1 20021115 50142 T Valentin, Javier MIL 21.4 20030716 50199 T Kielty, Bobby TOR 27.3 20030716 50199 T Stewart, Shannon TOR 39.0 20031114 50237 T Pierzynski, A.J. SFN 38.6 20031114 50237 T Nathan, Joe SFN 47.1 20031114 50237 T Liriano, Francisco SFN 16.3 20031114 50237 T Bonser, Boof SFN 6.5 20031203 50245 T Milton, Eric PHI 13.5 20031203 50245 T Punto, Nick PHI 21.6 20031203 50245 T Silva, Carlos PHI 31.0 20031215 50254 T Mohr, Dustan SFN 14.2 20031215 50199 T Gassner, Dave TOR 0.1 20040731 50322 T Mientkiewicz, Doug BOS 13.3 20051202 50425 T Castillo, Luis FLO 17.2 20051202 50425 T Bowyer, Travis FLO 0.0 Dan Levitt's forthcoming biography of New York Yankee general manager Ed Barrow is scheduled for release in the spring of 2008 from the University of Nebraska Press. He co-authored (with Mark Armour) the award-winning book Paths to Glory: How Great Baseball Teams Got That Way. Dan has also published numerous baseball related articles and short biographies. |
Comments
One issue not addressed in this is the nature of the talent the team had and what that talent was used for. Circa 2002, the Twins seemed to have a huge surplus of outfielders and two horrible starting middle infielders. What did Terry Ryan do? Why, he acquired a good but far from great outfielder, Shannon Stewart.
I don't think there's any fair way to account for perhaps unwise uses of resources but this really seemed to be one.
Posted by: James T at November 29, 2007 10:16 AM
Very interesting and great work as usual from Dan Levitt. If the Twins gained 201 more Win Shares than they lost, that works out to about 17-18 more per year. Since 3 WS makes 1 win, it seems that the Twins added perhaps 6 wins a year by their moves. That is significant.
Posted by: Cyril Morong at November 29, 2007 10:53 AM
This was a very interesting look at Ryan.
Any possible way you could do the same for Walt Jocketty? I'd love to see that.
Posted by: UofIx3 at November 30, 2007 10:07 AM