Nice article, I actually argued that the Twins will regress in 09 with a friend who is a huge Twin fan, and he agreed with my premise.

Twins 2007: Team ERA- 4.15 & 718 Runs Scored (12th AL)

Twins 2008: Team ERA- 4.16 & 829 Runs Scored (3rd in AL).

The reason the twins rebounded so well in 08 was (IMO) the amt of runs they scored increased dramatically. That in itself wouldn't be discouraging, but the way they did it was. Their 08 team batting average was .279, 3rd in AL. But they hit .305 with RISP, first by over .020 pts, which is not something I'd expect them to repeat.

I like alot of their young players, I just don't think they'll develop enough in 09 to rise above .500

The Twins were tough to beat in '08, so I think you're right that they'll be tough again in '09. Really their only weakness is in the bullpen, as far as getting to Nathan. They are young and built for that carpet.
The White Sox are a SP away from being the favorite to repeat, I just dont think they'll go get one. I do believe they can give the Twins a run for their money though. They lost a lot of players, but what are we talking about here? They lost Vazquez's 200 IP of mediocrity, they lost Crede's 20 errors in 100 games. Nick Swisher will have to watch 135 called strike threes breeze by somewhere else. They lost Uribe's .247 average(I will miss his cannon arm though). Floyd may not win 17 again, but is 14 or 15 that big of a stretch? No, of course not. The Sox bullpen is $20 million dollars worth of solid relief pitching. They should still get 200 HR out of that line up pretty easily. They did pace all of MLB with 235 HR last year, and a healthy Konerko should make up for the age related decline of Thome or Dye. Fields should be able to match Swishers production, hopefully with an average above the .100s.
As it stands I see Minnesota as a slight favorite, but the Sox are better than the ancient greek is telling us they are.
Go Sox.

As an Indians fan, I have to disagree with Sully a bit. The offense will score runs regardless of how Hafner and Martinez play (though obviously, the better they play, the more runs will be scored). The big concern is the starting rotation. A rotation of Lee, Carmona, Pavano, Laffey, Lewis, Reyes, and Westbrook (when he returns) could be very good. Or it could be very, very bad.

I have to disagree with the part of losing Sabathia, Byrd and Blake because of the fact that we won more games without them then we did with them.

"I have to disagree with the part of losing Sabathia, Byrd and Blake because of the fact that we won more games without them then we did with them."

Flukey.

Full disclosure, I'm a Twins fan.

I'm not picking favorites, remember last year when the Tigers were the team to beat? I do think the young Twins team is likely to take a step forward this year. Offensively I think you should expect more out of Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, and Michael Cuddyer, and the Busher/Harris platoon at third won't suffer from Mike Lamb's .598 OPS in 261 PA. Interesting side note, Harris posted a .899 OPS when playing third in '08 (113 PA). Kubel and Casilla could improve. Mauer and Morneau aren't likely to regress anytime soon. Any offense Punto provides is pure bonus. And if Denard Span can reproduce his .387 OBP they need to sign him to an 8 year deal now while he's still cheap. Overall, I don't look for any regression in offense despite a more realistic BA with RISP.

As far as pitching goes, if you discount Liriano's 3 April starts when he clearly wasn't ready, his 2.74 ERA was exactly half of Livan Hernandez' 5.48 and that's with a 90mph fastball. I think Baker has finally established himself, Slowey has the talent to improve, Blackburn really impressed me in the one game play-off with the White Sox (1 ER in 6.1 innings) And while Perkins was the only starter to post a sub-100 ERA+ I might note that STARTERS in the AL posted a league average ERA of 4.50 making the worst starter on the team in possession of a 102 STARTERS ERA+.

In the bullpen, Nathan is the best closer in baseball. Guerrier was overused and imploded, Gardy won't let that happen again. Jessie Crain has a full year under his belt since his shoulder surgery. Breslow and Mijares compensate for the loss of Reyes. I still wouldn't turn down a solid 8th inning guy, but the bullpen should be pretty strong.

All in all I would look at the Twins as slight favorites, but Cleveland is certainly in a position to compete, if Detroit could get some semblance of a pitching staff they have the offense to do it, I wouldn't be totally shocked if KC turned out to be '09's Rays and well Chicago wasn't supposed to be a factor last year either...