Patrick,

Solid piece. With regards to his aging and skill set do and the Lackey comp, I think Beckett has proven to be the much better SP over the last three seasons. He has K/BB 4.51, generates more GB then FB and is starting to expand his repetoire by throwing more 2FB and CFB's. With all that said, he is no doubt a risky sign for anything beyond two years. However I can not help but think he is just now starting to peak and he may be a 5.5-6 WAR pitcher for the next three seasons.

Interesting stuff, Sully. It strikes me that many of the pitchers in your Hall of Fame list pitched in the steroids era. It seems highly likely that the healing properties of steroids could have played a large role in helping older pitchers recover and perform consistently.

That would mean that Beckett would have to pitch like a Hall of Famer, and do so with much stricter steroid policies in place.

I also have aquestions that isn't specific to Beckett, but always bugs me when we talk about value.

Market value, as a concept, only makes sense in the economic framework it was intended for, where there is a market with perfect competition. Perfect competition requires homogeneous goods and many agents buying and selling. Of course the MLB pitcher market doesn't meet these requirements. This makes market value estimates based on WAR highly suspect. In this non-Walrasian market, scarcity of goods is a really big deal. In determining value for Beckett, don't we need to know what alternatives are out there? As a Sox fans, we know how the Sox have struggled with below-average replacement pitchers. Does this make Beckett more valuable?

Those are good questions, Chris. Here is the Red Sox rotation in 2011 w/o Beckett:

Lester
Lackey
Buchholz
Dice-K
Tazawa
Kelly
Bowden

Maybe they could add Lilly for a one or two year high AAV contract, Wakefield might still be effective, or they could look into other FA or trade possibilities.

I don't think they should feel like their backs are against the wall with Beckett.

If Buchholz can (finally) put it together, I think the Sox should probably let Beckett walk. I'd love to see him return, but I imagine he is going to want a higher contract than Lackey. And as you said, giving those two guys almost $40M a year into their mid-30s doesn't seem like the best policy unless the Sox are okay with carrying a $150M payroll going forward.

They dealt Nomar and let Pedro walk... one thing's for sure, the Sox don't let fanbase sentiment stand in the way of good business.

I think they should resign Beckett. I do believe he will want more than Lackey and why shouldn't he get it. Though he and Lackey are similar.. Beckett does pull ahead in the end. He has played hard for the Sox and deserves to get a bit more than Lackey for that reason alone! I would say 5/90 would be good. Nothing wrong with have a starting rotation of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey for at least the next three years!

Sully,

I think your probably right, although there is a rather large drop-off from Beckett to Tazawa (assuming thats where Becketts innings go).

In recent years the Sox have pitched something ridiculous, like 12 different starters, some of them grabbed off the waiver wire. Its meaningful to talk about the starting 5, + prospects that should emerge by then, but given their recent history, the Sox are probably considering their backups as well. Add in their refusal to allow needs at the major league level to hurry player development, and theres a decent chance that they will be scrambling for a pitcher. Tazawa can be a long-man, and stay in the minors until needed, which gives them valuable flexibility.

Again, I think your probably right, and I think he will walk. But I think the Sox aren't asking "Are we paying too much?" but "Are we getting value relative to our other options?" and "What are the chances of a post-season appearance with and without him?" Both become crazy difficult questions to answer from a sabermetric perspective.

The worst part will be when fans scream 'they valued Lackey more than Beckett!' But in reality it will be a different year, with a different market and with different team needs. When it became clear they weren't going to land the proverbial 'big bat' this offseason, they had to look in a different direction. Next offseaon there will likely be more impact bats available and there will certainly be multiple lineup holes to fill (3B,DH&C) so the focus will HAVE to be on the offense. Not to mention the possiblity of turnover at the closer position. With Lester and Lackey at the top of the rotation and presumably one of Daisuke or Clay stepping up this year to be a top #3 and the other being a solid #4. Finding the 5th body for the rotation will likely be a minor item on the 'things to do' list of Theo and company and Beckett is quite likely to walk as a result.

K/BB FIP K/9 WAR
Beckett 4.51 3.32 8.67 16.8

Schilling
(27-29) 3.36 3.71 7.43 6.1

Schilling 4.25 3.3 9.01 23
(30-34)

My hope really does spring eternal.

Two other factors not mentioned:

* The Red Sox may value Beckett's draft picks more than in the past as FA comp could become history with the new CBA

* A deal could get done soon that nearly doubles Beckett's 2010 salary in exchange for a deal that only runs through 2014 or something similar to Lackey's.

As the economy continues to unravel, long-term guaranteed contract for pitchers in their 30s may disappear. That would be long overdue.