The Morning After
Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants on winning the 2010 World Series. The team won the NL West by two games and then sailed through the postseason by winning 11 of 15 games in capturing the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series titles.
I have to admit, I never saw it coming. Not before the season. Nor during the season. Nor before the World Series. While I picked the Giants to beat the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, I thought San Francisco would fall to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS and to the Texas Rangers in the World Series. Rather than the Giants winning it in five, I had the Rangers winning in five. On second thought, maybe I got it half right. Just kidding.
Where did I go wrong? Let me count the ways:
1. Small sample size. (Rule No. 1 of forecasting: When you make a mistake, blame the sample size.)
2. Three games in the NLCS were decided by one run. The Giants won all three.
3. The Phillies outscored the Giants, 20-19, but won only two of the six games.
3. I had no idea that the Phillies would "hit" .216/.314/.321 in the NLCS.
4. I didn't foresee Cody Ross slugging three doubles and three home runs in the NLCS.
5. The Giants outscored the Rangers, 29-12. What can I say?
6. I had no idea that the Rangers would "hit" .190/.259/.288 in the World Series.
7. I had no clue that Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero would combine to go 3-for-34.
8. I failed to anticipate that Edgar Renteria would go 7-for-17 with two HR in the World Series. He went deep three times during the regular season.
9. Although I was never a fan of Texas' bullpen aside from Neftali Feliz, I would not have guessed that the set-up relievers would implode to the tune of of a 10.97 ERA over 10.2 innings.
10. I thought Cliff Lee and the Rangers would win Games 1 and 5. Instead, Tim Lincecum and the Giants won both of these crucial battles.
11. Don't forget Rule No. 1.
Look, San Francisco won the World Series fair and square. The Giants are worthy champions. The fact that I got it wrong is neither here nor there. As they say, flags fly forever. Conversely, predictions aren't worth the paper they're written on (or the pixels on your computer screen), especially those involving ... yes, small sample sizes. The staff at Baseball Analysts make such forecasts for fun and are not afraid of being wrong. To Patrick Sullivan's credit, he picked the Giants to win it in six. Not too bad.