For those of you who have been reading this site for a while, you probably know that one of my favorite things to write about is Major League Baseball's amateur draft. The 2009 draft is about a month away (June 9-10) so I though it might be a good time to take a look at one of the more popular debates around baseball, as well as the Internet.
There is a belief amongst some people that it is "safer" to pick a college player in the first round of the MLB amateur draft than it is to select a prep player. This belief was spawned - or at least made popular - by the Moneyball era. But is there really any such thing as a "safe" draft pick in baseball, given the nature of the beast? Baseball, unlike most other pro sports, generally requires top-ranked amateurs to spend many years honing their skills in the minor leagues before they are ready to play amongst the best athletes in the world in their chosen sport. The skill-level gap between Major League Baseball and amateur baseball is much larger than with football or basketball. And we haven't even mentioned the risk of injuries.
So let's take a look at the first rounds of the draft from 2001-2003 and see if the above belief has held true or not. We'll also break it down by position to see if college shortstops are more likely than, say, college catchers to meet expectations (We'll make the assumption that clubs are expecting a first-round pick to be at least a league-average regular at their position). There is a certain amount of subjectivity to deciding if a player has met expectations so you may disagree slightly with my opinions. As well, this type of study is difficult because players' stocks can fluctuate from year-to-year, but let's see how things play out. Players will be assigned either a (Pass) or (Fail) for meeting expectations. There are a couple (Undecided) as well.
* I was going to include 2004 and 2005 as well, but there were just too many players that had futures that were still too much up in the air.
College Hitters
Mark Teixeira, 1B (Pass)
Chris Burke, SS (Fail)
Jake Gautreau, 3B (Fail)
Gabe Gross, OF (Fail)
Mike Fontenot, 2B (Pass)
John-Ford Griffin, OF (Fail)
Bobby Crosby, SS (Pass)
High School Hitters:
Joe Mauer, C (Pass)
Casey Kotchman, 1B (Pass)
Josh Burres, SS (Fail)
College Success Rate: 3/7 (43%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
College Pitchers
Mark Prior, RHP (Pass)
Dewon Brazelton, RHP (Fail)
Josh Karp, RHP (Fail)
Chris Smith, LHP (Fail)
John VanBenschoten, RHP (Fail)
Kenny Baugh, RHP (Fail)
Aaron Heilman, RHP (Pass)
Brad Hennessey, RHP (Fail)
Jason Bulger, RHP (Fail)
Justin Pope, RHP (Fail)
Noah Lowry, LHP (Undecided)
High School Pitchers
Jeremy Sowers, LHP (Did Not Sign)
Gavin Floyd, RHP (Pass)
Colt Griffin, RHP (Fail)
Mike Jones, RHP (Fail)
Kris Honel, RHP (Fail)
Dan Denham, RHP (Fail)
Macay McBride, LHP (Fail)
Jeremy Bonderman, RHP (Pass)
Alan Horne, RHP (Did Not Sign)
College Success Rate: 2/10 (20%)
High School Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
College Hitters:
Khalil Greene, SS (Pass)
Drew Meyer, SS (Fail)
Russ Adams, SS (Fail)
Nick Swisher, OF (Pass)
Josh McCurdy, SS (Fail)
High School Hitters:
B.J. Upton, SS (Pass)
Prince Fielder, 1B (Pass)
Scott Moore, SS (Fail)
Jeremy Hermida, OF (Pass)
James Loney, 1B (Pass)
Denard Span, OF (Pass)
Jeff Francoeur, OF (Pass)
Sergio Santos, SS (Fail)
John Mayberry, 1B (Did Not Sign)
College Success Rate: 2/5 (40%)
High School Success Rate: 6/8 (75%)
College Pitchers:
Bryan Bullington, RHP (Fail)
Jeff Francis, LHP (Pass)
Joe Saunders, LHP (Pass)
Royce Ring, LHP (Fail)
Bobby Brownlie, RHP (Fail)
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP (Pass)
Joe Blanton, RHP (Pass)
Ben Fritz, RHP (Fail)
High School Pitchers:
Matt Cain, RHP (Pass)
Cole Hamels, LHP (Pass)
Chris Gruler, RHP (Fail)
Adam Loewen, LHP (Fail)
Clint Evert, RHP (Fail)
Zack Greinke, RHP (Pass)
Scott Kazmir, LHP (Pass)
College Success Rate: 4/8 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 4/7 (57%)
Notes: Derick Grigsby, RHP, who was drafted out of community college, was not considered.
College Hitters:
Rickie Weeks, 2B (Pass)
Michael Aubrey, 1B (Fail)
Aaron Hill, SS (Pass)
Brian Anderson, OF (Fail)
David Murphy, OF (Pass)
Brad Snyder, OF (Fail)
Conor Jackson, 3B (Pass)
Brian Snyder, 3B (Fail)
Carlos Quentin, OF (Pass)
Mitch Maier, C (Fail)
High School Hitters:
Delmon Young, OF (Pass)
Chris Lubanski, OF (Fail)
Ryan Harvey, OF (Fail)
Ian Stewart, 3B (Pass)
Lastings Milledge, OF (Undecided)
Matt Moses, 3B (Fail)
Brandon Wood, SS (Undecided)
Eric Duncan, 3B (Fail)
Daric Barton, C (Undecided)
College Success Rate: 5/10 (50%)
High School Success Rate: 2/6 (33%)
College Pitchers:
Kyle Sleeth, RHP (Fail)
Tim Stauffer, RHP (Fail)
Paul Maholm, LHP (Pass)
Ryan Wagner, RHP (Fail)
Chad Cordero, RHP (Pass)
David Aardsma, RHP (Fail)
Brad Sullivan, RHP (Fail)
High School Pitchers:
Chad Billingsley, RHP (Pass)
Jeff Allison, RHP (Fail)
John Danks, LHP (Pass)
College Success Rate: 2/7 (29%)
High School Success Rate: 2/3 (67%)
Notes: Nick Markakis, OF, who was drafted out of junior college, was not considered.
College Hitters Success Rate: 10/22 (45%)
High School Hitters Success Rate: 10/17 (59% - three undecided)
College Pitchers Success Rate: 8/25 (32% - one undecided)
High School Pitchers Success Rate: 8/17 (47%)
Conclusions: Maybe clubs like Toronto need to re-think their reluctance to draft prep pitchers due to their "unpredictability." Drafting pitching in the first round was not a safe bet (less than 50%) regardless of picking a college or prep pitcher between 2001-03, but the college success rate was dismal. It would be interesting to see if this trend would hold true if we were to research the draft back another 10 years. Surprisingly, prep hitters also performed better than their college counterparts.
College Success Rates by:
Catcher: 0/1 (0%)
First Base: 1/2 (50%)
Second Base: 2/2 (100%)
Third Base: 1/3 (33%)
Shortstop: 3/7 (43%)
Outfield: 3/7 (43%)
Right-Handed Pitcher: 5/19 (26%)
Left-Handed Pitcher: 3/5 (60%)
Notes: Wow. College right-handers were really not the best choice, although they were by far the most popular. Yikes.
High School Success Rates by:
Catcher: 1/1 (100%)
First Base: 3/3 (100%)
Second Base: ---
Third Base: 1/3 (33%)
Shortstop: 1/4 (25%)
Outfield: 4/6 (67%)
Right-Handed Pitcher: 5/12 (42%)
Left-Handed Pitcher: 3/5 (60%)
Notes: Obviously high school second basemen are not a hot commodity, which is not overly surprising, considering a large number of MLB keystone players probably started out as shortstops in the minors. The prep first basemen that were chosen have performed pretty well.
So, is there any such thing as a safe pick? Not really. But interestingly enough, prep hitters were the more successful choice between 2001 and 2003, followed by... prep pitchers. Teams that chose prep prospects, in general, had a 53% success rate. Teams that chose a college prospect had a success rate of just 39%. Collectively, the three years studied is a pretty small sample size in the grand scheme of things, so we cannot really read too much into the numbers above, but what it does is provide some food for thought. It could also serve as a great starting point (or hypothesis) for a much larger study on the successes and failures of the Major League Baseball amateur draft.