"It's a fight, a blow-by-blow verbal battle."

- Vin Scully, June 30, 1959

One of the greatest baseball rhubarbs in my lifetime took place 50 years ago today. The "blow-by-blow verbal battle" occurred between two of the biggest rivals in all sports: the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers, in just their second year on the west coast.

The game was played on Tuesday, June 30, 1959 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The paid attendance of 59,312 was the largest Coliseum crowd since Opening Night when 61,552 fans were on hand to watch the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Dodgers, 6-2, while setting a new attendance record for a National League night game. (Interestingly, the Cardinals and Dodgers had set the previous league record on April 25, 1958 when Stan Musial's first Coliseum appearance attracted 60,635.)

The Giants and Dodgers were in a virtual tie for second place in the National League, 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Braves. Milwaukee had beaten the New York Yankees, winners of eight of the prior ten World Series, in seven games to win the championship in 1957, then lost the title in seven games to the same Yankees in 1958. San Francisco had snapped the Dodgers' seven-game winning streak the night before when Jim Davenport and Willie Mays led off the 13th inning with back-to-back home runs en route to a 6-4 victory in what my Dad called "the most thrilling game ever played in the Coliseum" to that point.

Mays was to be heard from in more ways than one the following night. Batting second in the lineup, the "Say Hey Kid" slugged his 13th homer of the year (and fifth against the Dodgers) in the third inning to give the Giants a 2-0 lead and, according to Dad's game report in the Press-Telegram the following morning, "almost clouted another in the sixth inning, touching off a 10-minute rhubarb. While the fans hooted and hollered, the umpires changed their ruling twice and finally awarded Mays a ground-rule double. Rigney lodged a protest, but withdrew it after the game."

The batted ball was first ruled foul, then a home run and, finally, a double. I'll let Vin Scully, in what I believe is not only his most descriptive call ever but one of the greatest in the history of the game, take over from here.

Scully details the ensuing rhubarb, mentioning, in order, Drysdale, Mays, Giants manager Bill Rigney, third base coach Salty Parker, third base umpire Dusty Boggess, Dodgers first baseman Gil Hodges, shortstop Don Zimmer, first base umpire and crew chief Tom Gorman, Dodgers manager Walter Alston, left fielder Wally Moon, home plate umpire Ed Sudol, and Dodgers Vice President Buzzie Bavasi. (The fourth umpire was Stan Landes. He was stationed at second base and was never mentioned in Scully's call of the rhubarb.)

Although narrator Steve Bailey says the date was May 30, 1959, the incident actually took place on June 30, 1959. Bailey eloquently introduces the nine-minute clip, "Orchids to Vin Scully for a magnificent description of one of the wildest rhubarbs baseball has ever known."

Here is a word-by-word transcription of my favorite Scully call of all time (and, like everybody else, I love how he reported the ninth inning of Sandy Koufax's perfect game on September 9, 1965):

"Drysdale ready and the 1-1 pitch . . . curveball, cut on, there's a high flyball right down the left field line, right on the line, hits the foul pole and kicks foul. That's just about as foul as you can get without being fair.

Willie Mays hit the foul pole and it kicked off in foul ground. Rigney is telling Mays to trot all the way around. Salty Parker and Bill Rigney appealing to third base umpire Dusty Boggess . . . and now they're gonna wave Mays around and here come the Dodgers after Boggess.

If you know the Coliseum at all and you know the girder that supports the screen right down the left field line, Willie Mays hit a fly ball that actually hit that girder and then kicked off into foul territory. At first, Dusty Boggess called it foul but Rigney told Mays to go around anyway. And after Rigney and Salty Parker got into the discussion, Boggess suddenly ruled home run. The Dodgers came racing out of the dugout . . . a firecracker goes off back of home plate like to scare everybody out of ten years' growth . . . and the argument continues directly back of third base along the line. All four umpires along with a heated group of Dodgers . . . and the rhubarb continues about 30 feet down the line.

So Willie Mays, who is normally causing a lot of noise either at the Coliseum or Seals Stadium, has now really set off a bomb here at the Coliseum.

When you look at that girder down the left field line, there are many cables and wires that make it a very tough spot to look at. No doubt the Dodger contention is the ball hit one of the wires to make it foul.

But Boggess is now sticking to his guns. Drysdale is so mad he almost kicked 20 feet of the Coliseum out of the park. Gil Hodges right now is jaw-to-jaw with Dusty Boggess. Gil pointing first with his left hand, then with his right hand. Drysdale appealing to the gods right now. He just wants to holler at anybody who will listen. Don Zimmer is arguing with Tommy Gorman. The other three umpires now leave Boggess alone, and he is in the midst of lions.

Don Zimmer, Don Drysdale, Walter Alston, Gil Hodges, and Wally Moon are blistering Boggess, and Dusty every now and then seems to punctuate a Dodger's sentence by pointing with his left hand to that left field foul pole. At the very top of the foul pole, there are two slanting guide wires. One goes from the top of the pole to the right, down to the screen. And the other one goes from the top to the left, down toward the stands. The Dodger contention is that the ball hit the guide wire to the left and would be foul. Alston and Hodges and Zimmer and Moon continue to appeal. Gorman now tells Hodges to walk away, but Hodges goes right after Gorman. Zimmer will be hoarse in another two minutes. The veins on each side of his neck bulging out like the cable that actually holds up the left field screen.

Boggess sticking to his guns. The Dodgers continue to appeal, but Mays has touched all the bases and will come in with a home run. Gorman, who is the captain of this umpiring quartet, has now summoned Bill Rigney out of the Giant dugout. And both Gorman and Salty Parker are flanking Bill Rigney and, of course, Gorman doing all the talking.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still around Boggess at third. But watching Rigney's reaction, it looks like Gorman is going to call it foul . . . and Rigney is about ready to eat his glasses. Alston has walked away like a Philadelphia lawyer who has just won his case. Rigney slams his hat down and the gray hairs glistening under the lights. Bill is now going jaw-to-jaw with Boggess. Now he kicks at the dirt, hands on his hips, left hand thrown high in the air. Ed Sudol comes in to quiet the Giant manager down. Rigney's left hand, then his right hand up in the air. Now his hat is back on.

So, first the Dodgers appeal and walk away and now it's Rigney's turn to be on the griddle. All four umpires appear to be trying to placate Rigney, presenting their case. The Giant manager now starting to walk around, slamming his hands together, pointing with the right hand, then with the left. Now a big sweeping gesture with the left hand. Gorman comes after him now as if Rigney must have touched a nerve, and Gorman goes chewing right back after the Giant manager. Rigney now goes after Gorman, points with his left hand to that girder. Gorman answers with a right-handed gesture. Rigney bows at the waist with a sweeping right hand. And Gorman and Rigney are really going at it. Boggess comes over and Rigney like a mad traffic cop now with a right hand indicating that all the umpires are mad. Rigney kicks at the dirt, walks away with a hopeless gesture of both hands. Willie Mays comes out. Rigney drapes his left arm around Mays' shoulder and tells him to go to second base, 'I'll meet you halfway and what a riot.'

First it was ruled foul, then it was ruled fair, then the Dodgers won half a case and got Mays to go to second base. As soon as we get the ground rules on this particular play off the back of a batting card, we can pass them along.

Willie Mays hits the loudest double ever heard in Southern California or in the United States, for that matter. Rigney now comes to argue with the plate umpire Ed Sudol. Sudol pointing with his right hand toward the screen. Rigney pointing with his right hand . . . let's say, towards the Dodger dugout. Now Salty Parker comes down, and it's Rigney with his head just jerking a mile a minute, and now Sudol wants to talk to third base umpire Dusty Boggess. It's a fight, a blow-by-blow verbal battle.

Rigney has Boggess on his left and Sudol on his right, and right now Rigney is laying down the law, and the umpires come right back with words and gestures. Salty Parker, third base coach, with his arms folded across his chest, just listening right now. Rigney is concentrating his verbal fire on third base umpire Dusty Boggess. Sudol is now trying to draw some of the wrath of the Giant manager, but Bill wants to stay with Boggess. Rigney now whirls and since Sudol is walking towards the plate, Bill starts to go after him, then turns and goes back after Boggess.

Willie Mays, the cause of it all, at least he hit the ball, standing quietly at second base. Tommy Gorman and Ed Sudol have a meeting halfway between home plate and first base. Boggess has his hands full, with both Rigney and Salty Parker. We will have to wait to get the actual and official clarification. Walter Alston has come out of the Dodger dugout and, in the runway leading back towards the tunnel, he is now talking to Buzzie Bavasi, the Dodgers Vice President.

Rigney is exploding at Boggess so Gorman and Sudol are coming over again, trying to bail out Dusty. Gorman talking to Rigney. Rigney turns and starts to walk away, gives a big gesture with his hands and Gorman comes back with the same gesture. Now, plate umpire Ed Sudol has hollered up to the press box that the Giants will play the ballgame under protest, and it must be announced to the crowd. Listen, here comes the announcement."

After John Ramsey, the public address announcer, informed the crowd, amidst boos, of the protest, Bailey concluded the segment, "San Francisco manager Bill Rigney quickly forgot his protest because Sad Sam Jones pitched a one-hit, 2-0 shutout."

Jim Gilliam had the only hit, a disputed infield single in the eighth inning. According to Dad, "Gilliam's high chop behind the mound was the cheapest of hits, but a hit it was in the opinion of official scorekeeper Charlie Park. 'I hated to call it,' Park told Jones after the game. But Jones, brushing by and refusing to shake hands with Park, answered, 'I don't think it was a hit, whatever you call it.'

"Gilliam's hit bounced over Jones' head and was charged by shortstop Andre Rodgers, who over-ran and fumbled the ball. Park ruled that Gilliam would have beaten the play even if Rodgers had handled the ball cleanly.

"Rodgers and Giants manager Bill Rigney said it should have been called an error. 'I thought he called it too soon,' said Rigney with Park a listener in the clubhouse. 'If he had thought about it, he couldn't have called it that way. We'll never know if Rodgers could have thrown him out, but the way Rodgers throws, I think we had a chance.'

"Jones, who was aware of his no-hitter all the way, said, 'I thought sure the shortstop would get it. Had he caught the ball, he would have got Gilliam.' Then, turning to a group of questioning reporters, Jones said, 'Why don't you buy yourself another scorekeeper.'"

My father was one of the rotating official scorekeepers during his tenure covering the Dodgers and, in fact, was the official scorer during Koufax's perfect game. In an attached piece that accompanied his article, entitled "As Lederer Saw It," he wrote, "It was a hit. Had it happened in the first inning, there would have been no question. It was unfortunate that Jones lost the no-hitter, but it was the right call. I'm happy that I didn't have to make it, but I would have done the same."

Gilliam's high chopper was indeed a hit as was Scully's "blow-by-blow verbal battle" of one of the greatest baseball rhubarbs and calls of the past 50 years.

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News and notes from around the college, minor league, and mysterious world of baseball cards:

There are a number of preferred statistics when it comes to analyzing the performance of pitchers. Over the years, Cy Young voters have weighed wins and winning percentage more heavily than any other stat. ERA gained popularity among the masses throughout the last century, then adjusted ERA (aka ERA+) gained traction after Baseball-Reference rolled out its site and made this stat easily accessible online.

With the advent of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (and DIPS 2.0) earlier this decade, analysts began to pay more attention to strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As a result, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is now recognized as a better measurement of value than wins, winning percentage, ERA, and ERA+. Some even prefer xFIP, Luck Independent Pitching Statistics (LIPS), or tRA, which, at a minimum, normalize HR/FB rates or break down the types of batted balls.

One can also value pitchers based on counting stats, such as Pitching Runs or Runs Saved Against Average. Runs can be converted into wins, giving us Win Shares, Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). The main differences generally involve the use of run estimators and definition of replacement levels.

I like looking at K, BB, and GB rates. Strikeouts exert a greater influence over pitching performance than walks and groundball rates, such that K > BB > GB. Within strikeouts, one can use K/9 (good), K/BF (better), or K/100 pitches (best). K/100P has a higher correlation to runs allowed than strikeouts per batter faced or strikeouts per inning. Granted, K/100P has vestiges of BB and BABIP mixed into the formula, but there are arguments against K/9 and K/BF as well.

I have written several articles on K/100P and summarized my findings here.

Strikeouts. Pitch totals. Putting strikeouts in the numerator and pitch totals in the denominator allows us to measure dominance and efficiency or what I have referred to it as "strikeout proficiency." As a standalone stat, I believe it tells us more than K/9 or K/BF.

With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's take a look at the K/100P results for 2009. The stats are courtesy of ESPN and the list includes all qualified pitchers. (I discuss some of the leaders and laggards below the table.)

Has Javier Vazquez been the best pitcher in baseball this year? One could certainly make a strong argument on his behalf. The 32-year-old righthander leads the majors in not only K/100P by a fairly wide margin but also in total strikeouts and K/9 and is second in WHIP and third in K/BB. His 4-6 W-L record belies just how well he has pitched this season. His FIP, in fact, is three-quarters of a run below his ERA.

If Vazquez hasn't been the top pitcher this year, then how about Dan Haren, who is eighth in K/100P but first in WHIP and K/BB? While the 28-year-old righty may be in the midst of a career year, there are a couple of stats (notably, a BABIP of .238 and a strand rate of 86.0%) that suggest his ERA may be unsustainably low. I picked Haren to win the Cy Young this year so I'm not overly surprised by his stellar season.

Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay are building on their great seasons last year, while Zack Greinke (April and May) and Justin Verlander (late April to the middle of June) have been the most dominant pitchers in the game at various times over the first three months of the season.

Among the top dozen (or those with K/100P rates over 6.00), Jorge de la Rosa is probably the one pitcher who looks like he doesn't belong. While I would take the other 11 pitchers over him, I believe the 28-year-old southpaw is much better than his 3-7 W-L record and 5.85 ERA would indicate. He pitches in a tough ballpark and has been victimized by a high BABIP and a low strand rate. The young fireballer is not all that different from teammate Ubaldo Jimenez even though the latter has posted a 6-6 record with a 3.73 ERA thus far. If de la Rosa can improve his command and control (far from a given), he could eventually reach his vast potential.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jon Garland and Shairon Martis are pitching about as poorly as any regular starter in the big leagues. Both righthanders have not only struck out fewer batters per 100 pitches and inning than any other qualifier but they have allowed more walks than strikeouts, a recipe for disaster no matter what one's BB rate may be.

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My mother gave me a shoebox with a number of old cassette and reel-to-reel audio tapes for Christmas last year. Some items were marked and many others were not. Anxious to find out just what was in the box, I asked our local full-service editing and production storefront to transfer the tapes to compact discs. As things turned out, it was the best money I have ever spent for CDs.

No Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band, Led Zeppelin IV, Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, Saturday Night Fever, or Phantom of the Opera. But, my, what a Thriller it was to find out what I now owned. Included in the tapes (and now CDs) were two interviews of Don Drysdale and my father on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show in 1974.

While Dad had interviewed the "Big D" dozens of times over the years as a beat reporter covering the Dodgers for the Long Beach Press-Telegram, the roles had been reversed and it was Drysdale, the play-by-play broadcaster for the California Angels, interviewing Dad, the team's Director of Public Relations and Promotions. Their careers had overlapped with the Dodgers and Angels like no others from the 1950s to the 1970s.

Drysdale made his MLB debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1956 and was a budding star when Dad began to cover the club after owner Walter O'Malley had relocated the franchise to L.A. in 1958. The two of them stayed with the Dodgers throughout most of the 1960s with Dad and Drysdale both retiring from the Dodgers in 1969. Dad joined the Angels before that season started and worked for the organization for the next ten years. Drysdale hooked up with the Halos in 1973 through 1979 and returned for one year in 1981. (Interestingly, Drysdale's sidekick, Dick Enberg, broadcast Angels games from 1969-1978, matching Dad's tenure with the team exactly.)

The following Warm-Up shows took place 35 years ago. Nineteen years later to the day of the second interview, Drysdale died of a heart attack in his hotel room in Montreal during a Dodgers road trip. He began his career as a Dodger and died a Dodger. He was 56. Like Drysdale, my father passed away at a young age. Dad was 50 when he died of melanoma in 1978.

While I know these "lost" tapes mean more to my family and me than to the baseball public at large, I wanted to share them on the day after what would have been Dad's 81st birthday and the one before Father's Day. Oh, and isn't it fitting that the Dodgers and Angels are playing each other this weekend? My older brother Tom, in fact, went to the game last night.

Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. Be sure to give your loved ones a kiss and a big hug on this special day. None of us know what tomorrow brings.

"Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That's why it is called the present."

Thanks, Dad. And thanks, Mom, for the special Christmas gift. It's nice to have you in the present.

* * *

Don Drysdale Interviews George Lederer on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show, 5/7/74:

Don Drysdale Interviews George Lederer on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show, 7/3/74:

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I first met Paul DePodesta on May 13, 2005 at a Cal Poly-Long Beach State game at Blair Field in Long Beach. Paul, who was in his second year as the General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, joined area scout Bobby Darwin in the row directly in front of me. I recognized him, introduced myself, shook his hand, and we chatted about baseball between innings throughout the game while he was scouting college prospects a month before the draft and staying abreast of the Dodgers 7-4 victory over the Braves that evening.

Paul and I have remained friendly over the past four years. The Harvard two-sport athlete and cum laude graduate is as nice as he is competitive and smart. He is also a fellow blogger and perhaps the only senior member of a front office to operate a baseball-related website.

Now an Executive Vice President for the San Diego Padres, DePodesta has spent the past 13 years working with, for, and hiring some of the brightest minds in the game, including, among others, John Hart, Dan O’Dowd, Mark Shapiro, Josh Byrnes, Neal Huntington, Chris Antonetti, and Ben Cherington with the Cleveland Indians (1996-1998), Billy Beane, J.P. Ricciardi, and David Forst with the Oakland A's (1999-2003), Logan White, Kim Ng, and Dan Feinstein with the Dodgers (2004-2005), and Sandy Alderson, Kevin Towers, Grady Fuson, and Bill Gayton with the Padres (2006-2009).

DePodesta and winning are synonymous with one another. The Indians won the American League Central all three years, the A's won the AL West three times and finished second the other two seasons, the Dodgers captured the franchise's first division title since 1995 and first postseason berth since 1996, and the Padres won the NL West and missed tying for the division title and wild card spot by one game the following season. All in all, the clubs DePodesta has worked for have won eight division crowns and accumulated a won-lost record of 1,137-943 for a winning percentage of .547.

At 31, DePodesta was the third-youngest to become a big-league GM when Dodgers owner Frank McCourt made him his first hire on February 16, 2004. (Theo Epstein was 28 when named GM of the Red Sox in 2002 and Randy Smith was 29 when the Padres hired him in 1993. Jon Daniels subsequently became the youngest GM in baseball history when he ascended to the top spot with the Rangers in 2005 at the age of 28 years and 41 days.)

Paul is married and has two sons and a daughter. His wife Karen is a La Jolla High alum. He has enjoyed his tenure with the Padres for professional and personal reasons. Paul has also served as a keynote speaker at business conventions and his work was featured in Michael Lewis' best-selling book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, and recognized by Fortune, which named him one of the Top 10 innovators under the age of 40.

I had the opportunity to chat with Paul shortly after the MLB Draft was completed last week. Pull up a chair and enjoy.

Rich: On your blog, It Might Be Dangerous... You Go First, you have a poll up, asking "How do you feel about the Padres draft?" The majority of the respondents have voted "Happy." How do you feel about it?

Paul: I'd say "ecstatic," but that's probably how most club officials feel right after their draft.

Rich: The Padres had not taken an outfielder with its first pick since 1999, yet drafted center fielders Donavan Tate (Cartersville HS, GA) and Everett Williams (McCallum HS, TX) in the first and second rounds, respectively. Both players are the sons of former NFL players. Did San Diego make a conscious effort to get more athletic in this year's draft?

Paul: It's the first time since I've been here that we drafted anywhere in the top 20, so we had a different type of player available to us this year and we wanted to take advantage of that opportunity. We've taken some other high school outfielders within the top 50 picks in recent drafts (Kyler Burke, Jaff Decker), so it wasn't necessarily a total departure for us. Due to the work of Grady Fuson and Bill Gayton over the last few years, we feel good about our farm system as a whole, so we really focused on the best player available in each round rather than worrying about organizational need.

Rich: Let's talk about Tate for a minute. Which players, past or present, serve as good comps?

Paul: A lot of different names have been thrown around. I know Donavan admires Grady Sizemore, and there are some similarities there. Some others would include a young Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, or even Adam Jones.

Rich: Tate has signed a letter of intent to play baseball and football at the University of North Carolina. He is also represented by Scott Boras. Do you not feel as if he is going to be a difficult or costly sign?

Paul: Donavan has had a lot of options presented to him recently, including USC and Michigan football, UNC baseball and football, and now the Padres. Our feeling is that despite his impressive talents on the football field, Donavan's first love is baseball.

Rich: I remember Tate in the Aflac Classic last August quite well. He had a couple of memorable at-bats. In the sixth inning, after being behind in the count 0-and-1 and 1-and-2, he worked the count to 3-and-2 before flying out to left on the eighth pitch of his at-bat. Tate had an even better at-bat in the ninth inning when he fell behind 0-and-2 and fouled off five pitches on his way to working the count to 3-and-2, then got on base via an infield single to shortstop. He also scored the East's first run that inning on a wild pitch. I wrote down on my scoresheet, "tall, strong, fast, runs well" but was most impressed with his approach in those two at-bats.

Paul: It's interesting that you mention those ab's, because we heard some rumbings during the spring that Donavan's bat was "raw," and yet we had a representative at nearly all of his games and just didn't see it. I guess it all depends on the perspective: the bat may be "raw" as compared to his other tools or as compared to the top college bats, but as compared with the other high school bats... we felt comfortable with the risk.

Rich: Between Tate and Williams, which one do you see sticking in center field?

Paul: We think they're both good enough to play there. We hope to have that problem someday.

Rich: I saw Williams play in the Area Code Games last summer. After a terrific BP session, he went 0-for-5, striking out three times. It looked to me like he was having trouble handling breaking balls and lefthanders. Has he improved in these areas?

Paul: We see Everett as a pretty polished HS bat. That doesn't mean he won't need to make some adjustments - even the best big leaguers have to - but he has a natural feel for the barrel that is difficult to teach.

Rich: In the third round, you drafted Jerry Sullivan, a 6-4, 200-pound righthander out of Oral Roberts University. What do you see in him?

Paul: Jerry was a top prospect coming out of HS before having Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, he came back strong from the procedure and had a stellar career at Oral Roberts. In addition to being an excellent athlete in a 6'4", 200 lb body, he has always thrown strikes with a fastball that ranges from 90-94 as well as a tough slider and solid change.

Rich: As you mentioned, Sullivan had Tommy John surgery while in high school. Do you believe that pitchers who have undergone elbow reconstruction surgery in the past pose lower injury risks than those who have not?

Paul: Not neccesarily. In fact, pitchers with prior arm injuries can be at greater risk going forward. However, we've learned by painful first-hand experience that every pitcher comes with significant risk.

Rich: I was surprised that Keyvius Sampson (Forest HS, FL) was still available in the fourth round. A three-sport star in high school, he was 93-94 and struck out the first two batters he faced (both of whom went in the top 35 in the draft) in his only inning of work in the Aflac Classic last year. At 6-foot-1, he is not as tall as some of the prep power pitchers who went in the first round, but it still seems like he was a steal as the 114th overall pick in the draft.

Paul: With the format of the draft this year (only three rounds the first day), we had ample time to digest the first three rounds and prepare for the next set of rounds. Since we were picking 3rd again on Day Two we were pleased to find a number of interesting players remaining on the board, and Keyvius was certainly one of them. As you noted, he’s a terrific athlete, and we like both his arm speed and his feel for the changeup.

Rich: How do you, Kevin Towers (EVP/GM), Grady Fuson (VP, Scouting & Player Development), and Bill Gayton (Director of Scouting) work together when it comes to the draft?

Paul: The four of us in addition to our cross-checkers, Scott Littlefield and Bob Filotei, discuss all of the top picks, and there's generally a consensus. At the end of the day, it's up to Grady and Chief to make the final call.

Rich: How much of your time do you spend on scouting?

Paul: I start entering draft mode around the end of February/beginning of March. Once the ML season begins, though, I spend probably 90% of my time on the draft until we announce that last pick.

Rich: Do you think the standard five tools (hitting for average, power, arm strength, fielding, and speed) are still the most important attributes of a player? Or would you insert plate discipline/pitch recognition skills into the mix?

Paul: Both tools and skills are important, as they often depend on one another in order to play. For instance, the combination of all tools and no skills is usually a promise unfulfilled, and all skills with no tools often results in a short career. We'd all prefer a plethora of both, but in the absence of that it's a constant effort to figure out if the shortcomings in one area will inhibit the positives in the other.

Rich: While I understand "we're not selling jeans here," what roles do height, weight, and body type play in assessing current and projectable talent?

Paul: You may be asking this because our draft class looks as much like a football or basketball team as it does a baseball team. Malcolm Gladwell once wrote that 3.9% of all adult males are 6'2" or taller, and yet 30% of Fortune 500 CEO's are 6'2" or taller. The fact is that people, in general, maintain an inherent physical appearance bias, and in sports we tend to gravitate toward big, strong guys. Therefore, nature pushes us to overvalue size at times, but things like strength, leverage, and angle can make a difference as long as there are underlying skills.

Rich: How do rank attitude, hustle, and leadership when scouting players? And how do you go about valuing those characteristics?

Paul: It can be really difficult for me to warm up to a player who has a low motor, but that's just my personal take and one that I often have to guard against when writing reports. I prefer guys who play with energy and appear to really enjoy being out there. The minor leagues can be a real grind - I can't imagine enduring that playing schedule - so I worry about guys who don't seem to have that passion. That said, that passion isn't always illuminated by a player bouncing around the diamond, which is why I have to be careful.

Rich: Is "feel for the game" something that is at all quantifiable? Is it inherent in most players or can it be taught or gained over time?

Paul: I don't have a good answer for that. Every player is unique, and sometimes we'll find a player who has terrific instincts for one part of the game while really struggling with other aspects of the game. Some of that "feel" though can come from experience.

Rich: How does ability vs. signability come into play when lining up your draft board?

Paul: We try to line up our board without accounting for signability. When it comes time to make a decision, we have to factor in everything we know, but we don't want signability to cloud our evaluations of a player's ability.

Rich: The Padres were just swept by the Angels over the weekend and are now 9-23 on the road this season. Small sample size, tough schedule, or is there something else at work here?

Paul: I wish I knew! You cite two potentially contributing factors, but it’s often tough to nail down a direct causal relationship. The reality is that winning consistently on the road is difficult, and if you can win just 50% of your road games you’ll probably be in contention for a playoff spot.

Rich: The club is now 14 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Given its place in the standings, is San Diego likely to be a "seller" prior to the trading deadline next month?

Paul: The ups and downs of this season have been easier to endure to some degree because we have a young club. Many of our players are still experiencing growing pains at the ML level, which is to be expected, and those aren’t guys we’re looking to trade. I believe we only have four free agent eligible players on our team right now.

Rich: When should Padres fans expect the team to be competing for division titles and playoff berths again?

Paul: One of the tough things about having a lot of young players is the unpredictability of it. Very few teams progress in a relatively linear fashion – 65 wins to 72 wins to 78 wins to 84 wins to 90 wins. Rather, it can look more like the “progression” of the Rays – 70 wins, 67 wins, 61 wins, 66 wins, and then 97 wins. Even the Oakland teams went from 67 to 78 to 65 to 74 before running off eight consecutive years of 87 or more wins. The point is that teams tend to change states rather dramatically much like water turning to ice. I will say that though we have patience to get to 32 degrees, we also have the highest of expectations internally.

Rich: I understand that you have a little bit of professional acting experience, having appeared in a few episodes of the TV show “Homicide, Life on the Street” back in the mid-1990s. As such, how do you feel about the casting choice of comedian Demetri Martin to play you in director Steven Soderbergh's adaptation of "Moneyball," which is scheduled for release in 2011?

Paul: He's a lot funnier than I am, but he definitely needs a haircut.

Rich: Good one, Paul. And with that, I'd like to thank you for taking the time to discuss the Padres, both present and future, with me today.

Paul: Happy to do it.

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Last August, I wrote the following opening to Remember This Name:

Let me introduce you to the No. 1 pick in the 2011 amateur draft . . . Bryce Harper. I know, that particular draft won't take place for three more years. As such, how in the world could I make this type of a prediction now? Well, if you watched the 15-year-old, lefthanded-hitting catcher take batting practice, infield, and two plate appearances on Tuesday at the Area Code Games, as I did, then I have no doubt that you would be as enthusiastic about this phenom as I am.

Well, ten months later, I need to change the year in that first sentence. You see, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Bryce Harper has registered at the College of Southern Nevada and will be eligible for the MLB Draft in 2010 if he earns his General Educational Development credential this fall.

Harper, a 16-year-old who just completed his sophomore year, has registered at the College of Southern Nevada, where he plans to attend classes in August and play for the Coyotes next season.

His father, Ron Harper, announced the decision Saturday while in Oklahoma City for a baseball tournament.

"Bryce is always looking for his next challenge," Ron Harper said. "He's going to pursue his education, too. He's going to get pushed academically and athletically.

"I don't see a problem with it. I think we've handled it the right way. I think it will be a great story."

The Harper family first hinted at Bryce earning his GED in the cover article of the June 8, 2009 issue of Sports Illustrated.

So good is Harper, and so bleak the prospect of his spending two more years with high school pitchers who can't (and won't) throw their sloppy 80-mph fastballs over the plate to him, that his parents—Ron, a steelworker, and Sheri, a paralegal—are looking for ways to make their son eligible for the draft next year rather than in 2011. One of their advisers is agent Scott Boras, who has a well-earned reputation for maximizing dollars and exploiting loopholes. "I heard one of the things they're considering is taking him to the Dominican Republic to make him a free agent," says one AL executive.

"No," Sheri says. "We are not taking our son out of the country."

What the Harpers are considering, however, is having Bryce earn a GED credential this summer and enroll in a junior college this fall, which would expose him to more challenging baseball competition as well as make him eligible for next June's draft, in which he would likely be the first pick in the country.

For me, Harper's decision means I won't be able to see him play again in the Area Code Games at Blair Field in Long Beach this August. I was looking forward to that. Oh well.

For the Washington Nationals (16-45), possessors of the worst record in baseball this year, it now means having the opportunity to draft the top two amateur prospects in the first 11 years of the 21st century. The franchise won the Stephen Strasburg lottery this year and appears destined to win the Bryce Harper lottery next year. Strasburg and Harper could be the most hyped pitcher-catcher duo in decades, if not ever, should they wind up playing for the Nats. If nothing else, the two Scott Boras-advised players will be the richest signees in the history of the game.

While Strasburg was the 15th pitcher to be drafted No. 1 overall, Harper could become the seventh catcher to go first in the MLB draft. As with pitchers, the history of these catchers — Steve Chilcott *cough* ... Danny Goodwin twice *cough, cough* — would suggest that Harper is not a slam dunk to go from Las Vegas HS to College of Southern Nevada to the minors for a couple of years to the Nationals to the Yankees (after six years) and, finally, to Cooperstown. That said, I wouldn't want to bet against this timeline either.

In the meantime, the former high school phenom, who won't turn 17 until two months after he starts classes at CSN, will be paired with his older brother Bryan, a 6-foot-5 lefthanded pitcher who is transferring from Cal State Northridge, for the 2010 season. The Harpers will be coached by Tim Chambers, a longtime friend of the family.

Ron Harper told the LVRJ that Las Vegas High administrators and baseball coach Sam Thomas are "all supportive" of the move but recognizes that others may criticize this decision.

"There are going to be critics. I can't worry about what people think. People are going to see what they want to see and say what they want to say," Ron Harper said. "I think this prepares him for life, playing the game of baseball.

"People question your parenting and what you're doing. Honestly, we don't think it's that big a deal. He's not leaving school to go work in a fast-food restaurant. Bryce is a good kid. He's smart, and he's going to get his education."

Harper is expected to perform at USA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars next week. However, it is unknown at this time whether the youngster will play on the 16U, 18U, or the National Team (Collegiate) as he could technically qualify for all three.

I say skip the Tournament of Stars and CSN's baseball season and fast forward to June 2010... "Washington, you're now on the clock."

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I was a guest last night on 590 KFNS, a St. Louis radio station known as The Fan. The show, which runs weeknights from 10 p.m. to 12 a.m. CT, was hosted by The Benchwarmers, Brendan Wiese and Nick Barrale. We discussed the first day of the MLB Draft. You can access it on the radio station's rewind today or directly below.

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For the third straight year (Click here for 2008), Baseball Analysts scribes Rich Lederer and Marc Hulet will be live blogging during the first round of the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft. We'll have minute-by-minute updates and detailed scouting reports (by ourselves and the rest of the talented staff) on every player selected in the first round. We will also be providing commentary on subsequent rounds until the draft concludes after the third round.

The 2009 MLB Amateur Draft will begin with the Washington Nationals on the clock at 6 p.m. Eastern Time. There should be no surprises with the first-overall pick, as the organization is expected to take right-hander Stephen Strasburg out of San Diego State University. Many expect CF/1B Dustin Ackley, of the University of North Carolina, to go second overall to the Seattle Mariners. After the first two picks, though, it's anybody's best guess.

Be sure to refresh your browser or check back throughout the day to stay abreast of the latest news as we live blog the draft.

Update:
According to Baseball America, nine of the first 10 picks look fairly certain, with the only question coming at No. 9:

1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg.
2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley.
3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate.
4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez.
5. Orioles: California HS righthander Matt Hobgood.
6. Giants: Georgia HS righthander Zack Wheeler.
7. Braves: Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor.
8. Reds: North Carolina righhander Alex White.

At No. 9, Tigers are deciding whether to spend big (California HS lefthander Tyler Matzek, Missouri HS righty Jacob Turner), smaller (Texas HS righty Shelby Miller) or a little smaller (Arizona State RHP Mike Leake).

10. Nationals: Stanford righthander Drew Storen.

1. Washington Nationals
NL East | 15-39 | Last Place
General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Scouting Director: Dana Brown
2008 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (Did Not Sign)
2007 1st Round: Ross Detwiler, RHP, Missouri State
2006 1st Round: Chris Marrero, OF/1B, Florida high school

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Majors
2. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
3. Ross Detwiler, RHP, Majors
4. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
5. Chris Marrero, OF/1B, High-A

Organizational Needs: Right-handed pitching, third base, second base

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State University

Height/Weight: 6-4, 220 | DOB: 7/20/88

2009 stats: 13-1 W-L | 1.32 ERA | 109.0 IP | 65 H | 195-19 K/BB

Strasburg, who may be the best college pitcher in history, has been the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft ever since striking out 23 batters in a game against Utah in April 2008. He was the first collegian to play for the U.S. Olympic Team last summer. Strasburg led the nation in ERA and strikeouts this past season while whiffing almost half of the batters he faced. Threw a no-hitter with 17 punchouts vs. Air Force last month. Baseball America ranks his fastball, secondary pitch, and command as the best among all college pitchers. His fastball consistently sits no worse than the mid-90s and has reached triple digits on occasion. Also throws a hard slurve and a high-80s changeup with screwball-like action. Strasburg is capable of pitching in the major leagues right now, yet is unlikely to sign before the deadline on August 15. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Rich: Let the negotiations begin, which, of course, won't get serious for another two months. I think it would be more fun if he signed and went directly into the big leagues. But it's probably not the right thing to do nor what is likely to happen.

Marc: I really hope Strasburg turns out to be as good as advertised - and for a long time... There have been too many Priors and McDonalds.

2. Seattle Mariners
AL West | 27-29 | Third Place
General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara
2008 1st Round: Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia
2007 1st Round: Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Quebec HS
2006 1st Round: Brandon Morrow, RHP, California

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, High-A
2. Michael Saunders, OF, Triple-A
3. Jharmidy DeJesus, SS, Low-A
4. Greg Halman, OF, Double-A
5. Adam Moore, C, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Starting pitching, Left-handed pitching, First base, Second base

Dustin Ackley, CF/1B, North Carolina

Height/Weight: 6-1, 185 | DOB: 2/26/88

2009 stats: .417/.520/.781 | 242 AB | 101 H | 17 2B | 4 3B | 21 HR | 49-31 K/BB

The consensus second-best talent in the draft (next to Stephen Strasburg, of course), Ackley is a talented baseball player who spent the majority of the 2008-09 season playing first base while recovering from last year's Tommy John surgery. His draft stock rose significantly, though, when he showed he was healthy and able to play an above-average center field. His arm - even before surgery - was average at best. Although he has outstanding skills at the plate in terms of hitting for average (and he should be able to top .300 at the MLB level, if not lead the league in hitting a few times), Ackley's swing does not lend itself to the power you might expect from a first baseman. He'd be much more valuable to a team as a gap-to-gap hitter who can spray the ball all over the field, while utilizing his plus speed. Pretty much everyone expects Seattle to pop Ackley with the second overall pick. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Rich: Seattle didn't back away from the rumors that Ackley wants Mark Teixeira money plus inflation, which would mean more than $10 million. The second pick slots at about $3M-$3.5M. Pedro Alvarez, who like Ackley is a SBC client, extracted $6M out of the Pirates last year. Look for Ackley to get closer to $6 mil than $10 mil. But, rest assured, he will be a last-minute signee.

3. San Diego Padres
NL West | 26-29 | Third Place
General Manager: Kevin Towers
Scouting Director: Bill Gayton
2008 1st Round: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
2007 1st Round: Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
2006 1st Round: Matt Antonelli, IF, Wake Forest

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Kyle Blanks, OF, Triple-A
2. Mat Latos, RHP, Double-A
3. Jaff Decker, OF, Low-A
4. Adys Portillo, RHP, Rookie
5. James Darnell, 3B, Low-A

Organizational Needs: Catcher, Shortstop, Left-handed pitching

Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, Georgia

Height/Weight: 6-3, 200 | DOB: 9/27/1990

2009 stats: .488 AVG | 88 AB | 43 H | 11 2B | 1 3B | 9 HR

Tate is a toolsy outfielder “without a guaranteed bat” according to John Sickels. Other reports speak enthusiastically about the total package but no one skill of Tate’s stands out - he is simply an outstanding all-around athlete. He claims to be done with football but if the price is not right, there is speculation that Tate could go play two sports at UNC, where he is committed. (Posted by Patrick Sullivan)

Rich: By taking Tate, the Padres are breaking with past history and taking an athletic high school player rather than a more proven college pitcher or bat. Good for them.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL Central | 26-29 | Fifth Place
General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Greg Smith
2008 1st Round: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
2007 1st Round: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
2006 1st Round: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, High-A
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Majors
3. Jose Tabata, OF, Injured
4. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Double-A
5. Jeff Locke, LHP, High-A

Organizational Needs: Right-handed pitching, Left-handed pitching, Left field, First base

Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College

Height/Weight: 6-1, 220 | DOB: 5/20/88

2009 stats: .355 AVG | 211 AB | 75 H | 18 2B | 0 3B | 14 HR

Sanchez is expected to be selected as the first catcher, possibly to the Pirates at No. 4. It's considered an overdraft by some, despite his talent. Sanchez shows a good bat, along with at least average power, but there is no guarantee that he will hit for average. He also runs pretty well for a catcher. Defensively, he is quite talented and has a good arm. Sanchez loves to work with pitchers and he has great makeup. He could move quickly, especially if his bat plays in pro ball. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

RL: Sully interviewed Sanchez for Baseball Analysts last week.

5. Baltimore Orioles
AL East | 24-32 | Fifth Place
General Manager: Andy MacPhail
Scouting Director: Joe Jordan
2008 1st Round: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
2007 1st Round: Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
2006 1st Round: Billy Rowell, 3B, New Jersey HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Matt Wieters, C, Majors
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, High-A
3. Chris Tillman, RHP, Triple-A
4. Nolan Reimold, OF, Majors
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Outfielders, Shortstop, Third base, First base, Left-handed pitching

Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco (Calif.) HS

Height/Weight: 6-4, 245 | DOB: 8/3/90

2009 stats: 9-0 W-L | 0.38 ERA | 55.0 IP | 31 H | 84-19 K/BB

Hobgood is a big, strong right-handed stater with a durable body. His weight had been an issue, but he trimmed down for his senior season and it paid off. He dominated his high school competition with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and an outstanding 11-5 curveball. He has a slurve and change-up as well, but they need work to be effective pitches at the next level. Hobgood also sports an outstanding bat and glove. (Posted by Sky Andrecheck)

Rich: Hopgood was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year yesterday. He is a big bodied pitcher who can also hit. Baltimore clearly liked him better than any other team. He is committed to Cal State Fullerton but is likely to be a fairly easy sign at this spot.

Marc: It's the first of the really surprising picks... but BA (Jim Callis) nailed it within an hour of the draft. A surprise that BAL went with signability this year after taking prospects like Wieters and Matusz in recent years.

6. San Francisco Giants
NL West | 28-26 | Second Place
General Manager: Brian Sabean
Scouting Director: John Barr
2008 1st Round: Buster Posey, C, Florida State
2007 1st Round: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, North Carolina HS
2006 1st Round: Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Double-A
2. Buster Posey, C, High-A
3. Angel Villalona, 1B, High-A
4. Tim Alderson, RHP, Double-A
5. Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Rookie

Organizational Needs: Depth just about everywhere on the diamond

Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Pauling (Ga.) HS

Height/Weight: 6-4, 180 | DOB: 5/30/90

2009 stats: 8-0 W-L | 0.30 ERA | 69.0 IP | 28 H | 135-17 K/BB

Zack Wheeler, who Baseball Analysts interviewed earlier this week, is a right-handed high school pitcher out of Georgia. His stock rose dramatically with a dominant senior season in which he struck out more than half of all batters he faced. Wheeler has an outstanding fastball, which can reach 95 mph and a plus slurve. A lanky 6-4, he has a projectable body with excellent arm strength. He has a good head on his shoulders and is known as a baseball rat who loves the game. An important, but little-mentioned fact is that Zack is already 19, making him 3 to 15 months older than the peers in his class. (Posted by Sky Andrecheck)

Marc: The sound you hear is the Braves organization weeping after losing out on its fav player... and Georgia native. Will Atlanta nab Alex White now?

7. Atlanta Braves
NL East | 26-28 | Third Place
General Manager: Frank Wren
Scouting Director: Roy Clark
2008 1st Round: Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida HS (supplemental 1st)
2007 1st Round: Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia HS
2006 1st Round: Cody Johnson, OF/1B, Florida HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Jason Heyward, OF, High-A
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Majors
3. Jordan Schafer, OF, Triple-A
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B, High-A
5. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A

Organizational Needs: Third base, Shortstop, Second base

Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt

Height/Weight: 6-4, 195 | DOB: 12/26/87

2009 stats: 6-6 W-L | 3.90 ERA | 110.2 IP | 109 H | 114-37 K/BB

Mike Minor, a left-hander from Vanderbilt, was formerly drafted in the 13th round by Tampa Bay after his high school season, falling that low only due to his commitment to college. Three years later, he is ready to go pro and is expected to be selected highly. Minor's fastball is not overpowering at 88-91 mph, but he has excellent command with it and also sports an outstanding change-up as well as a hard slider and curve. While Minor has added pitches to his arsenal during his college career, his stats have not improved. His freshman year was his best season, going 9-1 with a nearly 5:1 BB/K ratio - this past year it was down to 3:1. It's been said the Padres are looking at taking him at #3 - if he goes that high, it will be due more to economics than talent. Minor's stuff or stats aren't mind-blowing, but as a signable college lefty who knows how to pitch, he's an attractive option, especially to a team who isn't looking to break the bank with its selection. (Posted by Sky Andrecheck)

Rich: Wow. Another signability choice. And a southerner to boot. A solid pick but one that lacks a high ceiling.

Marc: I love this pick because it means the Jays cannot take him. Seriously, though, the Braves have to hope that this guy is not Jeremy Sowers.

8. Cincinnati Reds
NL Central | 29-26 | Third Place
General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
2008 1st Round: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
2007 1st Round: Devin Mesoraco, C, Pennsylvania HS
2006 1st Round: Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Double-A
2. Todd Frazier, OF, Double-A
3. Drew Stubbs, OF, Triple-A
4. Neftali Soto, 3B, High-A
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Rookie

Organizational Needs: Left-handed pitching, Right field, Left field, Second base

Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State

Height/Weight: 6-0, 180 | DOB: 11/12/87

2009 stats: 15-1 W-L | 1.23 ERA | 124.2 IP | 71 H | 143-20 K/BB

An exceptionally athletic pitcher, Leake has also been dependable throughout his career at Arizona State. The right-hander has good - but not over-powering - stuff with a fastball that ranges from 88-92 mph and occasionally touches 93-94, as well as a cutter, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of his pitches and great mound poise, which helps him get the most out of his stuff. A stats-oriented team could definitely a lot to like about Leake, as could most scouts. In fact, it was Oakland that drafted him out of high school (in the seventh round in 2006). Teams that prefer big, physical starting pitchers will likely steer clear of Leake, though, as he stands just 6 feet tall. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: So much for Alex White here. I like Leake a lot. He has good numbers and good stuff... A great pick by the Reds.

Rich: I like him, too. Xlnt athlete. Great makeup. Big-time competitor. Outstanding numbers in a tough conference. Only concern is his size. But I wouldn't want to bet against him. Thought he might go to the A's at No. 14. Oakland drafted him in the seventh round in 2006 but Leake chose to go to ASU instead.

9. Detroit Tigers
AL Central | 29-25 | First Place
General Manager: David Dombrowski
Scouting Director: David Chadd
2008 1st Round: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona
2007 1st Round: Rick Porcello, RHP, New Jersey HS
2006 1st Round: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Rick Porcello, RHP, Majors
2. Ryan Perry, RHP, Majors
3. Casey Crosby, LHP, Low-A
4. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Double-A
5. Jeff Larish, 1B, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Depth everywhere...Shortstop, Left field, Starting Pitching...

Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian HS (MO)

Height/Weight: 6-5, 210 | DOB: 5/21/91

2009 stats: 7-1 W-L | 0.40 ERA | 52.0 IP | 19 H | 105-8 K/BB

Turner may be the top prep righthander in the draft. No one doubts his size, arm strength, or projectability. Represented by the Scott Boras Corporation, some teams may shy away from the alleged bonus demands that seek to match the record $7 million for a high school pitcher garnered by Josh Beckett in 1999 and Rick Porcello in 2007. I watched Turner on TV in the AFLAC Classic at Dodger Stadium last summer. He started the game, pitched two innings, allowed just one hit, one walk, and no runs while striking out five consecutive batters. Although his fastball was mostly 91-92 and touched 93 that day, it has reportedly topped out at 98 this spring. He also throws a curveball and changeup. Baseball America ranks his fastball as the second-best among all high schoolers. He has signed a letter of intent to North Carolina. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Rich: Finally. A team stepped up on one of the best high school pitchers. The Tigers have not been afraid to draft and sign the best of the best the past few years (see Justin Verlander, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello).

Marc: I agree with Rich... great choice by Detroit. Not quite the present talented that Porcello (whom people are comparing him to) had but there are some similarities, as well.

10. Washington Nationals (Compensation)

Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford University

Height/Weight: 6-2, 180 | DOB: 8/11/90

2009 stats: 7-1 W-L | 3.80 ERA | 42.2 IP | 34 H | 66-8 K/BB

Storen is the top reliever in this year’s draft, though some teams have considered selecting him as a starter. He is polished enough to appear out of the pen as early as this year. As a reliever, he throws 90-94, as well as two types of breaking pitches. As a starter, he’ll mix in his change and sinker occasionally. Wherever he pitches, he’ll throw strikes and limit his walks. He was drafted in 2007 by the New York Yankees, but did not break his commitment to Stanford. As a Cardinal, he has proven himself against stiff competition, including last year’s College World Series, where as he won two Regional games, saved two Super Regional games, and earned a win in his first appearance in the World Series. Storen is a draft-eligible sophomore, which might give him leverage in negotiations, but he is strongly expected to sign. (Posted by Jeremy Greenhouse)

Marc: A college pitcher who should move quickly like Strasburg... Many expect him to move from the bullpen, where he pitched in college, to the starting rotation in pro ball.

Rich: A good, solid pick, as much for need and signability as anything else. The Nats can't take any chances here because the club will not receive a compensation pick if it doesn't sign Storen.

Jeremy interviewed Storen for Baseball Analysts last week.

11. Colorado Rockies
NL West | 23-32 | Fifth Place
General Manager: Dan O'Dowd
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
2008 1st Round: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
2007 1st Round: Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
2006 1st Round: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Dexter Fowler, OF, Majors
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Double-A
3. Christian Friedrich, LHP, High-A
4. Charlie Blackmon, OF, High-A
5. Wilin Rosario, C, High-A

Organizational Needs: Right field, First base, Left-handed pitching

Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)

Height/Weight: 6-3, 211 | DOB: 10/19/90

2009 stats: 13-1 W-L | 0.97 ERA | 86.2 IP | 40 H | 106-33 K/BB

Matzek has gone from a virtual unknown 18 months ago to arguably the best prep pitcher in the draft. A lefthander, he has the full package: size, stuff, and polish. I saw him retire the side on nine pitches with two strikeouts in the Aflac All-American Game last summer. He commanded his fastball and curveball and hit 93 on the gun three times. A top ten prospect since the beginning of the year, Matzek has zoomed up draft boards with a phenomenal run during the playoffs (when he went 4-0 without allowing a run in 18.1 IP), culminating in a 1-0 victory in the CIF Southern Section Division I final at Anaheim Stadium when he was the winning pitcher and slugged a home run with two out in the bottom of the sixth to account for the game's only run and could go as high as No. 3 to the San Diego Padres. He reportedly dialed up his fastball to 97-98 on a few occasions during the past couple of weeks. Matzek has committed to Oregon but his top-of-the-rotation potential is likely to garner a high draft pick and huge signing bonus. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Rich: Matzek may now wish that he hadn't asked for the moon when approached by MLB teams this week. As a reward for wanting "unprecedented" money, he gets to pitch his first six years in Colorado. What a shame. But, hey, somebody has to pitch there.

Marc: Colorado got arguably the best prep arm with the 11th pick. Nice.

12. Kansas City Royals
AL Central | 24-31 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo
2008 1st Round: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
2007 1st Round: Mike Moustakas, 3B, California HS
2006 1st Round: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Independent League

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, High-A
2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Low-A
3. Tim Melville, RHP, Low-A
4. Danny Duffy, LHP, High-A
5. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Low-A

Organizational Needs: Corner outfield, Shortstop, Left-handed pitching

Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats

Height/Weight: 6-3, 195 | DOB: 11/11/86

2008 stats: 13-0 W-L | 2.35 ERA | 107.1 IP | 85 H | 127-38 K/BB (Missouri, NCAA)
2009 stats: Unavailable

Here we go again. This time... with more feeling. Aaron Crow was the Washington Nationals' first round pick (9th overall) in 2008 but the two sides failed to come to terms with the right-hander's camp looking for $4 million (Slot was $2.15 million). The former University of Missouri hurler chose not to return to school for his senior year and instead moved on to independent baseball with the Fort Worth Cats. By all accounts, his decision has not hurt has draft value whatsoever, and the right-hander is being mentioned as a possible fourth overall pick to the Pirates. With all the back story aside, Crow is a talented pitcher with an arm that could make him a No. 2 starter in the Majors. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that touches 96, a plus slider and a changeup. Crow varies his arm slot ever-so-slightly when throwing the breaking ball, scouts do not like his delivery, and he has struggled with his command in the past (as have most young pitchers). The team that drafts Crow should be getting a No. 2 or 3 starter who can help the big club within a year. Worst case scenario, some teams really, really like Crow as a late-game reliever as has fastball shows a little more consistent velocity and life. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: Oh. My. God. What a GREAT pick for KC and it came out of no where... I love what KC has done in the last two drafts. Did I mention this is a great pick?

Rich: This is the second time Kansas City has taken this route (drafting a player who re-entered the draft) in the past few years. However, this time they may have gotten at least as good of a righthander as Luke Hochevar without wasting spending the No. 1 overall pick.

13. Oakland Athletics
AL West | 24-30 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Billy Beane
Scouting Director: Eric Kubota
2008 1st Round: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
2007 1st Round: James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
2006 1st Round: Trevor Cahill, RHP, California HS (2nd round)

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Majors
2. Brett Anderson, LHP, Majors
3. Chris Carter, 1B, Double-A
4. Vin Mazzaro, RHP, Majors
5. Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Center field, Third base, Left-handed pitching

Grant Green, SS, University of Southern California

Height/Weight: 6-3, 180 | DOB: 9/27/87

2009 stats: .374/.435/.569 | 211 AB | 79 H | 19 2B | 5 3B | 4 HR | 38-20 K/BB

After being named the Cape Cod League's top pro prospect by far last summer when he hit .348/.451/.537 and was among the leaders in most offensive categories, Green entered his junior year as high as second (behind only Stephen Strasburg) on most draft boards. While his rate stats suggest that he had a good year offensively, his home runs fell from nine in 2008 to four in 2009. His lack of power may have been due to pressing too much or a rumored hand injury. He also had an up and down year defensively, lacking consistency with the glove. As a result of these questions, combined with the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, Green's stock has taken a minor hit, dropping from a top five selection to the middle of the first round. I've seen Green play many times and have likened him more to Troy Tulowitzki (without the powerful arm) than Evan Longoria, the two comparables most associated with him. Either way, he is the most gifted middle infielder in this year's draft. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Rich: This is exactly where I had Green going if KC passed on him. A good fit for Oakland.

Marc: For the second straight year, Oakland goes up the middle with its first pick (Jemile Weeks at 2B last season).

14. Texas Rangers
AL West | 32-23 | First Place
General Manager: Jon Daniels
Scouting Director: Ron Hopkins
2008 1st Round: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
2007 1st Round: Blake Beavan, RHP, Texas HS
2006 1st Round: Kasey Kiker, LHP, Alabama HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Elvis Andrus, SS, Majors
2. Justin Smoak, 1B, Double-A
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Triple-A
4. Derek Holland, LHP, Majors
5. Julio Borbon, OF, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Catcher, Second base, Third base

Matthew Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)

Height/Weight: 6-3, 180 | DOB: 7/17/90

2009 stats: 4-2 W-L | 1.18 ERA | 47.0 IP | 18 H | 91-7 K/BB

Along with Tyler Matzek, Purke entered the spring as one of the two best lefthanded high school pitchers in this year's draft. Matzek may have surpassed Purke down the stretch, relegating the tall, lanky Texan to what is still an enviable status as the second most talented lefty among all prep hurlers. His fastball sits in the low-90s and touched 95 in the Aflac All-American game last summer. His two-seamer has good, sinking action from a three-quarters arm slot and his hard slurve has sufficient tilt that he could be a high K/high GB type as a pro. He reminds me of Andrew Miller but needs to add strength to his projectable frame to reach his potential. Purke may be a risky pick as he has committed to Texas Christian and could hold out for a big signing bonus owing to his status as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2011. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Marc: Wow, everyone thought Texas would take Texas prep pitcher Shelby Miller. But the club took a different Texas pitcher in Purke.

Rich: I'm not overly surprised by this pick. It was either going to be Miller or Purke. The latter may have a higher ceiling. A tall, projectable lefty with an electric arm right now. He will cost a bunch of money but maybe Texas will get a home state discount (not from slot but from the lofty bonus demands that were floating around this week).

15. Cleveland Indians
AL Central | 24-34 | Fifth Place
General Manager: Mark Shapiro
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
2008 1st Round: Lonnie Chisenhall, IF, North Carolina CC
2007 1st Round: Beau Mills, 1B, Lewis-Clark State
2006 1st Round: David Huff, LHP, UCLA (supplemental 1st)

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Carlos Santana, C, Double-A
2. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Triple-A
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, High-A
4. Beau Mills, 1B, Double-A
5. Nick Weglarz, OF, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Center field, Right field, Left-handed pitching, Right-handed pitching

Alex White, RHP, University of North Carolina

Height/Weight: 6-3, 200 | DOB: 8/29/1988

2009 Stats: 8-4 W-L | 4.13 ERA | 98.0 IP | 86 H | 109-41 K/BB

White's (relatively) pedestrian numbers in 2009 have him falling down some draft boards but with an excellent pitcher's frame, solid mechanics and a low-90s fastball with excellent sink, scouts still think this kid is a future front-of-the-rotation contributor. White touches 95. Fans will get a chance to see White compete in his third consecutive College World Series in the coming weeks. He's a junior, so that's three in three years for White. Not bad. (Posted by Patrick Sullivan)

Rich: Call me skeptical. A very good college pitcher. But I'm not sold on taking a pitcher who relies so heavily on a splitter for his success at this point in the draft. A high risk, high reward starter or perhaps a reliever if things don't quite work out as planned.

Marc: Definitely a typical Cleveland pick...

16. Arizona Diamondbacks
AL East | 24-32 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Scouting Director: Tom Allison
2008 1st Round: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
2007 1st Round: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana HS
2006 1st Round: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Double-A
2. Gerardo Parra, OF, Majors
3. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Majors
4. Trevor Harden, RHP, Low-A
5. Billy Buckner, RHP, Majors

Organizational Needs: First base, Second base, Third base, Left-handed pitching

Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS, (FLA)

Height/Weight: 6-4, 200 | DOB: 8/26/90

2009 stats: .494 AVG | 77 AB | 38 H | 9 2B | 0 3B | 13 HR

One of the fastest risers in the draft throughout the season, Borchering is one of the safest high school bats. The switch-hitter has shown the ability to hit for both average and power with very impressive bat speed. His plus-plus bat speed is more evident from the left side. Unlike a lot of prep third basemen, Borchering possesses "present power," rather than just raw power potential, so he's a legit prospect at the hot corner. The only thing that will move him off the position will be his defense. He's not terrible, but he's not Scott Rolen out there, either. If the team that drafts him feels that his defensive development is slowing him down too much, he likely has enough bat to play first base - or possibly even left field. He's committed, but not strongly, to the University of Florida. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: The first pick on back-to-back choices... The best prep bat, in my mind. A great pick by a very cautious, money conscious organization.

Rich: Let's see if Arizona backs this pick up with a pitcher. A signable pitcher.

17. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation)

A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame

Height/Weight: 6-1, 200 | DOB: 12/5/87

2009 stats: .365/.443/.610 | 241 AB | 88 H | 19 2B | 5 3B | 10 HR | 30-24 K/BB

As long as he stays in center field, Pollock should be a good value pick to a team in the second half of the first round. His power is fringy for the corners but he lacks the first-step quickness in center. Teams that put a lot of value in the Cape Cod League stats will flock to Pollock, as he was the league's MVP last summer. He looked capable of a respectable batting average, 10-15 homers and 15-20 stolen bases in a full MLB season. A reworking of his timing mechanism at the plate may help him produce more line drives. Pollock is a solid but unspectacular player. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Rich: I'm not jumping up and down on this one.

Marc: Pollock has been linked to Arizona all along, though. He's one of those guys who could end up as a tweener and a fourth outfielder.

18. Florida Marlins
NL East | 27-30 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Larry Beinfest
Scouting Director: Stan Meek
2008 1st Round: Kyle Skipworth, C, California high school
2007 1st Round: Matt Dominguez, 3B, California high school
2006 1st Round: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Cameron Maybin, OF, Triple-A
2. Michael Stanton, OF, High-A
3. Logan Morrison, 1B, Double-A
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, High-A
5. Sean West, LHP, Majors

Organizational Needs: Right-handed pitchers, Left-handed pitchers, Left field, Shortstop

Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)

Height/Weight: 6-4, 195 | DOB: 1-23-1991

2009 stats: 8-1 W-L | 1.28 ERA | 63 IP | 32 H | 100-33 K/BB

James is a big strong projectable lefty. There is room to add bulk on his 6-4 frame. He has a solid fastball that works in the low-90s and a nasty curve. Like most pitchers his age his command and mechanics have been inconsistent. He has committed to play for Oklahoma State, but there are conflicting reports about his signability. Some see him a as relatively cheap sign, while others think he will be expensive to sign away from OSU. (Posted by Dave Allen)

Marc: The Marlins take a high school hurler... surprise, surprise. Florida could really use some depth in the upper minors in terms of pitching, but they go for ceiling instead.

19. St. Louis Cardinals
NL Central | 31-25 | Second Place
General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow
2008 1st Round: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State
2007 1st Round: Peter Kozma, SS, Oklahoma HS
2006 1st Round: Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Colby Rasmus, OF, Majors
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Triple-A
3. Chris Perez, RHP, Majors
4. Jess Todd, RHP, Triple-A
5. Jason Motte, RHP, Majors

Organizational Needs: Left field, Right field, Second base, Left-handed pitching

Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)

Height/Weight: 6-4, 200 | DOB: 10-10-1990

2009 stats: 9-1 W-L | 1.69 ERA | 66 IP | 34 H | 129-30 K/BB

Shelby Miller is the prototypical big-framed, flame-throwing high school Texan. His fastball already works in the low- to mid- 90s and has been clocked as high as 98 mph (the fastest pitch thrown by a high schooler this season), and is said to have good movement. He also has a good curve with 12-6 break. In his junior year he threw three consecutive no-hitters preceded by a one-hitter. He is a big kid with a projectable pitcher's frame who should continue to add bulk, and presumably commensurate speed to his fastball. He played on his football team all four years, while most highly ranked baseball players skip their senior year for fear of injury (Old FJM fans will be pleased to hear he was an all-state punter). He has committed to Texas A&M. (Posted by Dave Allen)

Rich: Kudos to the Cardinals for taking the best available position player or pitcher rather than focusing on a more proven college prospect.

Marc: Nicely done. I agree with Rich... the Cards went with the best player available even though the organization typically takes college players.

20. Toronto Blue Jays
AL East | 31-27 | Third Place
General Manager: J.P. Ricciardi
Scouting Director: Jon Lalonde
2008 1st Round: David Cooper, 1B, California
2007 1st Round: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas HS
2006 1st Round: Travis Snider, OF, Washington HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Travis Snider, OF, Triple-A
2. J.P. Arencibia, C, Triple-A
3. Brett Cecil, LHP, Triple-A
4. Ricky Romero, LHP, Majors
5. Brad Mills, LHP, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Third base, Shortstop, Right-handed pitching, Outfield

Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State

Height/Weight: 6-4, 225 | DOB: 12/22/1987

2009 Stats: 8-1 W-L | 2.54 ERA | 92.0 IP | 80 H | 98-15 K/BB

Due to his size, Jenkins can be an imposing figure on the mound. His stock rose quickly this season and, looking at his numbers and the way he pounds the strike zone, it's easy to see why. According to Keith Law, Jenkins "throws a hard slider" (83-85) but has "a rough delivery". With improved mechanics and conditioning, Jenkins could really pan out. It's easy to see why a team confident in its player development personnel would nab him. (Posted by Patrick Sullivan)

Marc: (Shrugs) Meh.

Rich: Can you say Brad Penny? Just remember, Marc, "we're not selling jeans here."

Marc: Yeah, but this is the third straight year that I've been left thinking... Really, that's the best they could do with that pick?! A No. 3 starter at best... and one with a pretty soft body.

21. Houston Astros
NL Central | 24-30 | Sixth Place
General Manager: Ed Wade
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck
2008 1st Round: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
2007 1st Round: Derek Dietrich, 3B, Cleveland HS (3rd round, Did not sign)
2006 1st Round: Max Sapp, C, Florida HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Jason Castro, C, High-A
2. Brian Bogusevic, OF, Triple-A
3. Ross Seaton, RHP, Low-A
4. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Low-A
5. Bud Norris, RHP, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Right field, Shortstop, Second base, First base, Pitching

Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA)

Height/Weight: 6-2, 175 | DOB: 8/26/90

2009 stats: .413 AVG | 63 AB | 26 H | 9 2B | 1 3B | 4 HR

Mier's name has been bouncing around the first round and a team in need of some talent up the middle could snap him up. A lack of speed, though, could cause him to move off of shortstop in the next five years or so, depending on how he fills out. His range is good and he has an average arm, so he could move to second or third down the road. Due to his lack of speed, Mier is more of a two-hole hitter or an eighth-place hitter. He's known as a free swinger who likely will not draw a lot of walks and he'll probably top out around 10-15 home runs. Mier has great baseball instincts, which help his abilities play up, as well as excellent makeup. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Rich: Hey, the Astros didn't take a catcher! Mier can pick it. I think the Angels might have been on him had he floated to them.

22. Minnesota Twins
AL Central | 28-29 | Second Place
General Manager: Bill Smith
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
2008 1st Round: Aaron Hicks, OF, California HS
2007 1st Round: Ben Revere, OF, Kentucky HS
2006 1st Round: Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, California HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Rookie
2. Ben Revere, OF, High-A
3. Wilson Ramos, C, Double-A
4. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Triple-A
5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: First base, Second base, Shortstop

Kyle Gibson, RHP, University of Missouri

Height/Weight: 6-6, 208 | DOB: 10-23-1987

2009 stats: 10-3 W-L | 3.47 ERA | 99 IP | 89 H | 123-18 K/BB

Going into the end of May Gibson was the top college pitcher in the draft class not named Strasburg, but BA reports that in his last start, on May 30th, his velocity was down and he admitted feeling forearm tightness. Then over the weekend it was revealed that he has a stress fracture and would be shutdown for six weeks. He will most likely drop considerably, and even previous to the injury there were concerns over his heavy college workload. He throws three pitches: a fastball that normally works in the high 80s and low 90s (it topped out at 87 mph in his May 30th start), a very good hard slider and a changeup. He has excellent control, but John Sickels, among others, question his future as an ace because of his lack of plus velocity. Scouts love his tall frame, which gives room to continue to add bulk. He pitched for Team USA in 2008 striking out 25 and walking only 4 over 17.2 innings. He was selected by the Phillies out of high school in the 36th round of the 2006 draft. (Posted by Dave Allen)

Marc: A stress fracture in the arm had Gibson fall all the way to the 22nd pick after being considered as a Top 5 pick.

Rich: I like it. Not as risky as it may seem at first blush. First of all, the injury is a stress fracture as Marc pointed out (and not an elbow or shoulder). He is supposed to be out no more than six weeks, which gives Minnesota the opportunity to work him out prior to the signing deadline. If he is fully healthy, the Twins just stole him. If not, they either take a chance and sign him at a big discount or they don't sign him and get the 23rd pick in next year's draft instead.

23. Chicago White Sox
AL Central | 26-29 | Third Place
General Manager: Kenny Williams
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann
2008 1st Round: Gordon Beckham, IF, Georgia
2007 1st Round: Aaron Poreda, LHP, San Francisco
2006 1st Round: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Texas

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Gordon Beckham, SS, Majors
2. Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Double-A
3. Tyler Flowers, C, Double-A
4. Chris Getz, 2B, Majors
5. Aaron Poreda, LHP, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Outfield, First base, Second base, Left-handed pitching

Jared Mitchell, OF, Louisana State

Height/Weight: 6-0, 190 | DOB: 10/13/88

2009 stats: .327/.472/.558 | 199 AB | 65 H | 11 2B | 4 3B | 9 HR | 51-60 K/BB

Mitchell is a high-energy, fast-twitch player, especially on the base paths. He's incredibly athletic and stronger than he appears on first glance; he also plays college football. Mitchell displays raw strength with the bat, but it may never develop as usable power. He'll also need to eliminate the upper cut in his swing and he strikes out far too much for a top-of-the-order hitter. Despite his gifted running abilities, Mitchell has a weak throwing arm and does not get good read on balls. As such, he's going to end up in left field unless he significantly improves. In left, his bat will relegate him to a platoon or fourth outfielder role. He was drafted out of high school in the 10th round by the Twins but went to school when the team failed to meet his price tag (reportedly $1 million). (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Rich: This pick shouldn't surprise anybody. Kenny Williams likes his athletes and got a big-time one in Mitchell.

24. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
AL West | 28-26 | Second Place
General Manager: Tony Reagins
Scouting Director: Eddie Bane
2008 1st Round: Tyler Chatwood, RHP, California HS (2nd round)
2007 1st Round: Jonathan Bachanov, RHP, Florida HS (Supplemental 1st)
2006 1st Round: Hank Conger, C, California HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Nick Adenhart, RHP, In Memory
2. Jordan Walden, RHP, Double-A
3. Trevor Reckling, LHP, High-A
4. Hank Conger, C, Double-A
5. Mark Trumbo, 1B, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Outfield, Second base, Left-handed pitching

Randal Grichuk, OF, Lamar HS (TX)

Height/Weight: 6-0, 195 | DOB: 8/13/1991

2009 stats: .597 AVG | 72 AB | 43 H | 9 2B | 1 3B | 19 HR

Despite standing just 6 feet tall, Grichuk generates above-average power, thank in part to excellent bat speed. As a strict pull hitter, the prep prospect may struggle to hit for a high average in the upper levels of the minors. Defensively, he is pretty much limited to left field due to his weak arm and average range. Grichuk has good makeup. He is committed to the University of Arizona. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: Another set of back-to-back picks... A name that was not being talked about before... today, yesterday? What do you think, Rich?

Rich: I love it, Marc. A high school kid who plays outfield and hits for power. Just what the Angels need more than anything else. The numbers are there and, more importantly, he reportedly had some big BP sessions with more than one team during the past week. Although he didn't stand out when I saw him play at the Area Code Games last August, I'm very pleased with this pick, even if some view it as an overdraft.

25. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)

Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS, New Jersey

Height/Weight: 6-1, 190 | DOB: 8/7/1991

2009 stats: .521 AVG | 71 AB | 37 | 5 2B | 1 3B | 15 HR

Trout has all the tools and his 18 home runs this past season - a New Jersey prep record - are going a long way in assuring scouts that his bat will develop. Baseball America's Aaron Fitt refers to Trout as an "Aaron Rowand kind-of player but with more speed". That will work. (Posted by Patrick Sullivan)

Rich: Yay! The Angels have really filled a huge need by drafting Grichuk and Trout. I had highlighted Trout's name in my Area Code Games program last year.

Marc: That is some serious outfield depth. I'll trade you Jenks... sorry Jenkins (body confused me) for Trout?

26. Milwaukee Brewers
NL Central | 33-23 | First Place
General Manager: Doug Melvin
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid
2008 1st Round: Brett Lawrie, 2B, British Columbia HS
2007 1st Round: Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
2006 1st Round: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Virginia HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Mat Gamel, 3B, Majors
2. Alcides Escobar, SS, Triple-A
3. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Low-A
4. Angel Salome, C, Triple-A
5. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, High-A

Organizational Needs: Right field, Second base, First base, Left-handed pitching

Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana University

Height/Weight: 6-5, 225 | DOB: 12-25-1988

2009 stats: 12-1 W-L | 2.58 ERA | 101 IP | 77 H | 103-35 K/BB

Arnett has been a late-riser up draft boards with his incredible 2009 junior year after just mixed success in his freshman and sophomore years. His fastball, which works in the mid-90s with good sink, and slider are both plus pitches, but his changeup is still a work-in-progress. Some scouts are worried that if the changeup doesn't come around he will have to be a reliever in the majors. He has a big frame and has been durable during his college career. On the other hand he doesn't have a track record of such a high level of success before this year and John Sickels notes that guys who burst onto the scene can implode just as rapidly. (Posted by Dave Allen)

Marc: He's a rising name, so it will be interesting to see if he continues to step up in pro ball. He's got some big-time stuff.

Rich: This was a big favorite of Harold Reynolds. Based on video, said he liked Arnett as much or more than any other pitcher not named Strasburg. A big, power arm. Has been likened to Josh Johnson.

27. Seattle Mariners (Compensation)

Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley HS (FL)

Height/Weight: 6-1, 180 | DOB: 3/2/91

2009 stats: .538 AVG | 78 AB | 42 H | 12 2B | 3 3B | 10 HR

Franklin is not the most gifted prospect and he doesn't have one, big standout tool, but he does a lot of things well. He probably won't hit for power, but he has room to add some muscle and wright to his lean frame. Narrow shoulders, though, limit his growth potential. On the base paths, Franklin has average speed but it plays up because he's a smart runner and he could steal 10-15 bases in a full MLB season. He's also an average defender at shortstop with just enough arm to remain at the position. He future may be as an MLB utility player. Franklin is committed to Auburn University. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

28. Boston Red Sox
AL East | 33-23 | First Place
General Manager: Theo Epstein
Scouting Director: Jason McLeod
2008 1st Round: Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Florida HS
2007 1st Round: Nick Hagadone, LHP, Washington
2006 1st Round: Jason Place, OF, South Carolina HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
2. Daniel Bard, RHP, Majors
3. Michael Bowden, RHP, Triple-A
4. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Double-A
5. Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Low-A

Organizational Needs: Left-handed pitching, Second base, Left field

Reymond Fuentes, OF, Fernando Callejo HS (Puerto Rico)

Height/Weight: 6-0, 160 | DOB: NA

2009 stats: Unavailable

The top offensive talent out of Puerto Rico has impressed a number of teams recently, including the Los Angeles Angels. Related to New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran, Fuentes is a fast-twitch, excitable player with a promising line-drive bat and blazing speed. He's a free swinger, but he has good plate coverage and a lightning-quick bat speed. Only 160 pounds, Fuentes could add home-run power with more muscle mass. His range in center field is above-average, but he has a weak throwing arm. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: Another fast-rising player and a GREAT athlete. Will the Yanks go with the big arm at 29 and nab Scheppers? I would.

29. New York Yankees (Compensation)
AL East | 32-23 | Second Place
General Manager: Brian Cashman
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer
2008 1st Round: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS (Did not sign)
2007 1st Round: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
2006 1st Round: Ian Kennedy, RHP, Southern California

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Jesus Montero, C, Double-A
2. Austin Jackson, OF, Triple-A
3. Dellin Betances, RHP, High-A
4. Mark Melancon, RHP, Triple-A
5. Austin Romine, C, High-A

Organizational Needs: Infielders, Outfielders, Left-handed pitchers

Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS

Height/Weight: 6-1, 195 | DOB: 9/28/90

2009 stats: .457 AVG | 46 AB | 21 H | 8 2B | 1 3B | 4 HR

Heathcott is coveted by a number of teams picking in the last 10 picks of the first round and he has legitimate five-tool potential. The Texas athlete, who swings from the left side, is skilled at hitting for average and power, and he also shows good speed. Defensively, Heathcott has good range and a plus arm (He can hit the mid-90s on the mound), which could serve him well in center or left field. Injuries have been a bit of an issue for Heathcott as he's been playing with a knee brace after undergoing ACL surgery. He also injured his shoulder earlier this spring. The teenager would be higher on some teams' draft boards if not for some makeup concerns stemming from off-field incidents. Heathcott is committed to Louisiana State, where he could end up being a very talented two-way player. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Rich: Heathcott wouldn't have been available had he not been injured or had personal issues. He might ask for more than slot but the Yankees can afford to give it to him. Don't see New York losing its first-round pick two years in a row.

Marc: Nice, nice pick by the Yankees. Definitely fell because of makeup issues and he has the talent to be a monster.

Rich: I saw Heathcott hit and pitch at the Area Code Games last August. I also watched how he carried himself after the game. The kid seemed a little cocky to me and has enough hot dog in him that he did a cartwheel and back flip before the Aflac Classic in honor of Ozzie Smith, who was the honorary chairman. But there is no doubting his talent. Hit 91 on the gun and struck out the side (although not in order). He hit a groundball single up the middle in one of the two ABs I witnessed. Grounded out to shortstop in the other. In the Aflac game, he went with a pitch on the outside corner and singled in a run against Zack Wheeler in the first inning that gave the West an early 1-0 lead. He also pitched the ninth inning and was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs. I wrote down "most athletic player" next to his name on my scoresheet even though I didn't care for his attitude.

30. Tampa Bay Rays
AL East | 29-28 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison
2008 1st Round: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2007 1st Round: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2006 1st Round: Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. David Price, LHP, Majors
2. Tim Beckham, SS, Low-A
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Double-A
4. Wade Davis, RHP, Triple-A
5. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Double-A

Organizational Needs: First, second and third basemen, Left-handed pitching

LeVon Washington, 2B/OF, Buchholz HS, Florida

Height/Weight: 5-10, 170 | DOB: 7/26/1991

2009 stats: .400 AVG | 85 AB | 34 H | 4 2B | 1 3B | 7 HR

Washington is as highly ranked as he is for one reason only: his speed. He is a terror on the base paths and regularly beats out routine ground balls for base hits. His speed can also help him make up for spotty reads from time to time. The problem is that his power and arm are both limited, and his speed advantage will be less pronounced as he advances. Any team taking Washington will be banking on accelerated development from a kid who is obviously a standout athlete. He is a University of Florida commit. (Posted by Patrick Sullivan)

Marc: A good athlete, regardless of where he ends up on the diamond.

Rich: R.J. Harrison likes high school athletes and Washington fits the bill. If he can stick at 2B, Tampa Bay may be looking at Tim Beckham and LeVon Washington as the club's keystone combo down the road.

31. Chicago Cubs
NL Central | 27-26 | Fourth Place
General Manager: Jim Hendry
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken
2008 1st Round: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian
2007 1st Round: Josh Vitters, 3B, California HS
2006 1st Round: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Josh Vitters, 3B, Low-A
2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Triple-A
3. Andrew Cashner, RHP, High-A
4. Jay Jackson, RHP, Double-A
5. Starlin Castro, SS, High-A

Organizational Needs: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Right field, First base

Brett Jackson, CF, California

Height/Weight: 6-2, 210 | DOB: 8/2/88

2009 stats: .321/.407/.564 | 218 AB | 70 H | 17 2B | 6 3B | 8 HR | 61-29 K/BB

Ranked as the second-best college athlete in the draft by Baseball America, Jackson is a big, fast, "toolsy" center fielder who plays the game with more enthusiasm and flair than polish. Saw Jackson play a weekend series against Long Beach State early in the season and two games in the Regionals at Blair Field last year. He led off all three games vs. the Dirtbags and went 8-for-17 with three doubles but went 0-for-8 in the playoffs a year ago, including an oh-fer vs. Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft. Jackson, who bats left and throws right, has had trouble making contact, striking out about once every four plate appearances as a junior. He stole 11 bases in 16 attempts. Was selected the eighth-best prospect in the Cape Cod League last summer. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

32. Colorado Rockies (Compensation)

Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State

Height/Weight: 6-4, 205 | DOB: 1/11/88

2009 stats: .385/.494/.765 | 200 AB | 77 H | 16 2B | 3 3B | 18 HR | 29-28 K/BB

Exactly where Wheeler ends up is anybody's guess. The college outfielder has been linked to a few teams picking in the first half of the draft, but after that he could drop down into the last few picks of the round - or even the supplemental first round. Wheeler's swing does not lend itself to power, but he's shown flashes of it and he could end up with a similar offensive profile to Chicago Cubs outfielder Reed Johnson, albeit with the ability to make a little more consistent contact. Wheeler also has some good wheels (along with smarts on the base paths) and could provide 20 steals over the course of a full MLB season. Defensively, he's suited to left field, which lowers his overall ceiling a bit because he's not going to top 20 homers very often. The team that drafts Wheeler in the first round believes A) He can play CF, or B) His power display this season is for real (From 3 HR in 08 to 18 in 09). (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Marc: And with the final pick of the first round... Tim Wheeler. Solid athlete.

Marc: Some big names and arms still on the board... Tanner Scheppers, Rex Brothers, James Paxton, Everett Williams...

Rich: With the 35th overall pick, the Arizona Diamondbacks just popped Matt Davidson, who worked out for the team at Chase Field a week ago today as we discussed in an interview that was published on Baseball Analysts yesterday. Look for Matt to sign for close to a million dollars within the next two weeks and get on with his professional baseball career. It will be interesting to see if Davidson or Borchering (Arizona's first selection and 16th overall) plays third base should they be assigned to the same rookie league team.

Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA)

Height/Weight: 6-4, 225 | DOB: 3/26/91

2009 stats: .553/.685/1.153 | 85 AB | 47 H | 18 2B | 0 3B | 11 HR | 7-27 K/BB

According to Baseball America, Davidson is the third-best power hitter among high school prospects. He went yard eight times in his final dozen high school games and won the home run derby with a wood bat during the AFLAC Classic at Dodger Stadium last summer. Davidson has a strong arm and was an outstanding pitcher during his freshman and sophomore seasons. Moved to third base as a junior and is still raw defensively but possesses enough athleticism that he should stick at the hot corner with additional instruction and experience. Although Davidson has signed a letter of intent to attend the University of Southern California, he is likely to go pro if he is drafted in the first or sandwich round. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

36. Los Angeles Dodgers
NL West | 39-19 | First Place
General Manager: Ned Colletti
Scouting Director: Logan White
2008 1st Round: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS
2007 1st Round: Chris Withrow, RHP, Texas HS
2006 1st Round: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Texas HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Andrew Lambo, OF, Double-A
2. Josh Lindblom, RHP, Double-A
3. Ethan Martin, RHP, Low-A
4. James McDonald, RHP, Triple-A
5. Devaris Gordon, SS, Low-A

Organizational Needs: Left-handed pitching, Left field, Second base, First base

Aaron Miller, LHP/OF, Baylor

Height/Weight: 6-3, 220 | DOB: 9/18/87

2009 stats: 3-3 W-L | 5.12 ERA | 51.0 IP | 49 H | 65-26 K/BB

Miller has bounced back and forth between focusing on pitching and hitting. His preference was to hit in college but he struggled to make consistent contact in his junior year (.310 AVG, 50 Ks in 56 games). Baylor also lost a number of key pitchers to injury in 2008-09 so Miller stepped in and showcased a low-90s fastball that could creep into the mid-90s. His repertoire also includes a slider and he'll have to develop a changeup. Because of his inexperience, Miller could move slowly through the system but his ceiling could rise as he gains experience on the mound and improves his secondary pitches and command/control. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

At No. 43, the Cincinnati Reds nabbed Brad Boxberger, another Pac-10 pitcher to go along with first rounder Mike Leake.

Brad Boxberger, RHP, University of Southern California

Height/Weight: 6-2, 200 | DOB: 5/27/88

2009 stats: 6-3 W-L | 3.16 ERA | 94.0 IP | 69 H | 99-50 K/BB

I saw Boxberger make his college debut two years ago and his first start this season. In both cases, his fastball touched 94 in the opening frame but lost velocity quickly, sitting mostly at 89 after the first couple of innings. Boxberger's proclivity of hitting the wall early may force him to become a reliever rather than a starter. He performed that role at the end of his sophomore season as well as in the Cape last summer, recording nine saves and striking out 28 batters in 18 2/3 innings. Boxberger throws four pitches but a scout told me that he may need to choose between his slider and curve "because it takes a lot of feel to throw both." His father (Rod) went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and earned College World Series MVP honors for the 1978 USC national championship team before being drafted with the 11th overall pick by the Houston Astros. (Posted by Rich Lederer)

Rich: With the 52nd overall pick, the San Diego Padres selected Everett Williams. Paul DePodesta says, "This is another highly athletic HS outfielder who we think can really hit. He's about 5'10" and 200 lbs and is another potential 5-tool guy." I saw Williams at the Area Code Games last August. He had a great BP session but struggled mightily in the game I attended, going 0-for-5 and striking out three times.

Everett Williams, OF, McCallum HS (TX)

Height/Weight: 5-10, 200 | DOB: 1-23-1991

2009 stats: Not Available

Williams is a toolsy center fielder. He is fast, but not a total burner, has great range in center, and an average arm. Most importantly he broke out with huge power this past spring, jumping up draft boards as a result. The power is slightly surprising give his small size, but he is very athletic. Some scouts doubt that he will stay a power hitter based on his size and its sudden appearance, but no one doubts the rest of his tools. He fits the image of a high-upside toolsy raw high schooler. He has committed to the University of Texas. (Posted by Dave Allen)

72. New York Mets
NL East | 29-25 | Second Place
General Manager: Omar Minaya
Scouting Director: Sandy Johnson
2008 1st Round: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State
2007 1st Round: Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State (Supplemental 1st)
2006 1st Round: Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Villanova (2nd round)

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Majors
2. Wilmer Flores, SS, Low-A
3. Brad Holt, RHP, Double-A
4. Bobby Parnell, RHP, Majors
5. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Double-A

Organizational Needs: Outfield, Second base, Left-handed pitching

Steve Matz, LHP, Melville HS (NY)

Height/Weight: 6-2, 195 | DOB: 5/29/91

2009 stats: 6-1 W-L | 0.47 ERA | 44 IP | 81-15 K/BB

Dealing with some adversity based on where the organization had to pick, the Mets grabbed a projectable prep lefty with a promising fastball. Matz also features three other developing pitches with a slider, curveball and changeup, which currently rates as his second-best pitch. He's committed to Coastal Carolina University. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

75. Philadelphia Phillies
NL East | 32-22 | First Place
General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever
2008 1st Round: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Connecticut HS
2007 1st Round: Joe Savery, LHP, Rice
2006 1st Round: Kyle Drabek, RHP, Texas HS

FanGraphs' Top 5 Prospects:
1. Dominic Brown, OF, High-A
2. Michael Taylor, OF, Double-A
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Double-A
4. Jason Knapp, RHP, Low-A
5. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Triple-A

Organizational Needs: Left field, First base, Second base, Shortstop

Kelly Dugan, OF, Notre Dame HS (CA)

Height/Weight: 6-3, 195 | DOB: 9/18/90

2009 stats: NA

Dugan is a quality, switch-hitting prospect who was flying a little under the radar on draft day. His father is a Hollywood director best known for working on a number of Adam Sandler movies. The Phillies were attracted by Dugan's makeup, which is off the charts. Most of his skills currently grade out as average - both offensive and defensively - but he does possess above-average raw power. Dugan is committed to Pepperdine University. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

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The Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft begins today at 6 p.m. ET. The MLB Network will broadcast the first round from its Studio 42 in Secaucus, N.J. with MLB.com providing on-air coverage of the remainder of the draft, including the supplemental through fourth round action this evening.

Baseball Analysts will be live blogging the first and supplemental rounds today for the fifth consecutive year. You can access the previous coverage by clicking on the links to the years: 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005. We will be on hand to bring you all the picks in real time, including player profiles complete with name, position, school, height, weight, date of birth, stats, and comments from our staff of writers/analysts. Be sure to refresh your browser or check back throughout the opening two rounds to stay abreast of the latest news as we live blog the draft later today.

In the meantime, we would like to preview the draft in a quick-hitting, back-and-forth discussion between the two of us.

Rich: Well, Marc, today's the big day. Or, with the draft being moved to the evening, should I say tonight's the big night?

Marc: I am so excited. I look forward to this day all year... It's kind of cool that they're "dragging it out" over three days this year.

Rich: There's really no question as to what the Washington Nationals are going to do with the first overall pick in the draft. The only intrigue is how much the ownership is willing to offer Mr. Strasburg. Given his status as perhaps the greatest college pitcher ever and arguably the most obvious No. 1 since the inception of the draft in 1965, the San Diego State junior deserves to be well compensated for what he brings to the table. I would offer him $15 million, a nearly 50 percent premium to the previous high bestowed upon Mark Prior in 2001. What say you?

Marc: I am definitely concerned because Mr. Boras has his hands all over this... It's probably going to get a little ugly between the two sides - and in the media. From the sounds of it, players in MLB baseball (and the Washington Nationals) aren't really fond of the idea of Strasburg getting a huge contract having never proven himself in The Show. I read an interesting article with Ben McDonald - one of the best college pitchers of all time - recently and he said he received a lot of hostility in the Baltimore clubhouse over his ground-breaking contract (Boras was also his advisor at the time). Regardless of how it plays out, Strasburg is going to have a lot of pressure to be the player who turns the franchise around. Going back to the original question, though, I agree that $15 million would be more than fair.

Rich: Once Strasburg is off the board, Seattle is expected to draft North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley with the No. 2 selection. Ackley is undoubtedly the best bat among the college class of prospects and should return to center field after his arm has fully bounced back from Tommy John surgery last summer. Like Strasburg, the only concern is whether the Scott Boras client's asking price (rumored to approach eight figures) is unrealistically high.

Marc: I like Ackley a lot, although I was concerned earlier in the season that he would be stuck at first base. For me, that swing is not going to produce power at the MLB level. I think a lot of people are overrating his power. He's going to be an excellent average hitter and he's going to steal some bases and possibly play Gold Glove defense in center during his career. For me, he's not a $10 million player.

Rich: Switching gears here, the Diamondbacks and Angels each have five of the first 48 picks in this year's draft (see the adjoining Picks By Team, courtesy of Baseball America). Due to big league promotions and trades in the case of Arizona, each club's once highly regarded farm system has been depleted of late. How do you see the D-Backs and Angels handling the multitude of draft choices today?

Marc: I wanted to love the Diamondbacks organization because I love the state so much. But, I just don't have a lot of faith in the organization as a whole. I have a strong feeling that they're going to "go cheap" with their picks. If they take the best available player at 16 and 17 then I'll eat my words. Unfortunately, with so much up in the air with the draft, I can't even fathom who might be there... Bobby Borchering, Matt Purke? I could see them being one of the teams on Mike Minor, if he "slips." As for the Angels, you pretty much know the organization is going to go heavy on the prep players. I keep hearing that the club is big on Puerto Rican outfielder Reymond Fuentes. The organization needs some pitching depth too, though.

Rich: I don't see the D-Backs popping for Purke, especially if you're concerned that the organization is going to go cheap. Signability and injuries always play a factor in each year's draft. Kyle Gibson (stress fracture in his right forearm) and Baseball Analysts Draft Spotlight Tanner Scheppers (recovering from a shoulder injury last year) are the biggest risks health-wise this year. As to signability, Strasburg and Ackley pose some risk but are likely to sign right before the deadline. However, I'm not so sure you can count on a handful of high schoolers rumored to be seeking out-of-the-box signing bonuses, such as Purke, Donavan Tate, and Jacob Turner, to sign unless they get exactly what they want. It says here that if you draft any of these players, you had better be willing to pay (close to) the anticipated freight.

Marc: I agree, but I like to think that pretty much any player drafted in the first round is going to sign... There are not that many Gerrit Coles in the world, who would turn down millions of dollars to play college baseball. With that kind of money, you can set yourself up for life and go to college later, if that's really what you want to do. It also sounds like a lot of teams are saying to heck with the slot so I think we're going to see everyone sign, despite some long drawn-out negotiations. Teams have really shifted to emphasizing in-house development. It's still far cheaper to give $3 million to an amateur as a signing bonus than $50M to a 30-year-old free agent coming out of his prime.

Rich: Last year's draft was dominated by college prospects, particularly position players. Aside from Strasburg and Ackley, this year's draft seems more geared to high school arms. There's Purke and Turner, as well as Tyler Matzek, who just may be the best prep pitcher of them all, Baseball Analysts Draft Spotlight Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller, Tyler Skaggs, and Matt Hopgood, who was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year on Monday. That's seven right there as compared to just three last year (Ethan Martin, Casey Kelly, and Gerrit Cole). In this regard, the draft feels a lot more to me like 2007 than 2008.

Marc: Last year, though, you have too keep in mind that signability played into things as well as possible first-round talents like prep pitchers Tim Melville and Ross Seaton slid past the third round but still signed for first-round money.

Rich: Well, that could always happen again this year, but I think most, if not all, of those high school arms will be drafted in the first round.

Marc: One thing I am curious about, though, is if teams are going to start straying from the all-college approach that teams like St. Louis, Toronto, and San Diego have been using for a few years now... Those teams really haven't had great drafts as of late, although Toronto has scored a few good players by looking to the prep ranks a little more often.

Rich: I've always been attracted to taking the best player available, irrespective of his status as a high school or college prospect. If you end up with a good mix of both, all the better, as it helps balance out the age of players in your farm system (and eventually at the major league level as well).

Marc: Rich, I know you've seen Grant Green play a fair bit... Where do you think he ends up when all is said and done. And what kind of impact do you see him having? Is his 2009 season the real Grant Green?

Rich: Although Green didn't live up to expectations as a junior, he is still a first-round talent. Heck, he's the best shortstop in the entire draft. Premium up-the-middle players are still hard to find so I'm confident that he won't slide much beyond the middle of the first round unless teams get spooked by his above-slot asking price. Kansas City could be the best fit. The Royals haven't backed away from Boras clients in the recent past (Luke Hochevar in 2006, Mike Moustakas in 2007, and Eric Hosmer in 2008). If KC passes at No. 12, then I would look for Oakland (13th) or St. Louis (19th) to step up and take Green. As to impact, I can see him hitting between .270 and .300 with 15-20 HR during his age 25-30 seasons. Those numbers will work just fine as long as he sticks at shortstop.

OK, Marc. Washington is on the clock...

* * *

Update: Jim Callis, in his Mock Draft 4.0 posted this morning, says bonus demands are adding more confusion to a wide-open draft.

According to multiple team sources, several of the draft's best high school players blew them away when they revealed their price tags. California lefthander Tyler Matzek, the best prep prospect in the draft, wants "precedent-setting money," which is interpreted to mean that he wants to surpass the record $7 million guarantee for a high schooler given to Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. Texas righthander Shelby Miller, previously believed to be signable for around MLB's bonus recommendations, is asking for $4 million.

New Jersey outfielder Mike Trout (upwards of $2.5 million), Texas outfielder Slade Heathcott (upwards of $2 million), Florida third baseman Bobby Borchering ($2 million), North Carolina catcher Wil Myers ($2 million) and California outfielder Jake Marisnick ($2 million) all want top-10 pick money. Oklahoma southpaw Chad James seeks $1.75 million. Previously, Missouri righty Jacob Turner and Texas lefty Matt Purke alluded to Porcello money, while Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate will cost $6 million or more.

Teams are indignant about what they believe to be unrealistic expectations. Two different scouting directors remarked last night that they were getting seven-figure signability estimates for players their clubs hadn't even planned to draft. On the other side, agents are just as upset about commissioner Bud Selig's unilateral 10 percent reduction in the slot recommendations.

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Matt Davidson is one of the top high school bats in tomorrow's MLB Draft. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound third baseman is projected to go in the bottom half of the first round or early in the supplemental round.

A righthanded power hitter, Davidson hit .553/.685/1.153 with 18 doubles and 11 home runs during his senior year. He cranked eight homers in his final dozen games, going yard twice in three separate contests down the stretch.

Using a wood bat, Davidson put on a power display at the National Classic in the spring of 2008 and won the home run derby prior to the Aflac All-American Game at Dodger Stadium last summer. He went 1-for-4 with a run-scoring double down the left-field line in his second at-bat during the game.

Matt was born in Redlands, California on March 26, 1991. The Davidson family moved to nearby Yucaipa when he was a toddler. Davidson has wanted to play professional baseball since he was a young kid. He played four years of varsity and led Yucaipa HS (27-3 overall, 13-1 in the Citrus Belt League) to a national ranking this past season, bowing to Huntington Beach HS in the quarterfinals of the CIF, Southern Section Division II playoffs two weeks ago.

Davidson committed to the University of Southern California last year but appears to be leaning toward turning pro if everything goes as planned.

I spoke to Matt on the telephone for half an hour last Wednesday night. He had just returned from Phoenix after working out with the Arizona Diamondbacks the previous day.

Rich: I understand you not only played varsity baseball all four years at Yucaipa High School but you were the MVP of the league your freshman year.

Matt: Yes. I was mostly a pitcher my freshman and sophomore seasons, then I pretty much quit throwing my junior year and moved to third base to concentrate more on my hitting and fielding.

Rich: How did you do as a pitcher?

Matt: I was 10-1 with a 0.80 ERA in my freshman year. I was 9-2 with like a point 8 ERA as a sophomore. I think I was 4-2 as a junior and 5-0 this year as a relief pitcher.

Rich: Wow. You were quite the pitcher.

Matt: Thanks. I always hit when I pitched. As a freshman, I pitched and DH'd. In my sophomore year, I pitched and played first base.

Rich: What would you say to the cynics who question your ability to stick at third base longer term.

Matt: This is just my second year at third base. I've had absolutely no coaching there. I will be able to work with an infield coach in college or in the pros. I've only been able to take about 20 grounders a day at practice. I'm really raw right now. I'll be able to spend more time on my fielding in the future.

Rich: You signed a letter of intent to play baseball at USC, my alma mater.

Matt: Oh, that's good to know. My hitting coach, Danny Davidsmeier, was an All-American at USC in 1981.

Rich: I remember him.

Matt: I've been taking personal, private lessons from him since I was 10. He was drafted by Milwaukee in the third round. He didn't play in the majors but made it to Triple-A and also played overseas.

Rich: Can either one of us convince you to become a Trojan or are you set on turning pro?

Matt: I'm totally fine with both. Either one would be a great opportunity.

Rich: Do you have a preference?

Matt: I want to go out and play. My dream is to play pro baseball. But you have to make a smart decision. I just hope everything works out well so I can go out and play.

Rich: You sound like you're anxious to start your professional baseball career.

Matt: Yeah, definitely. I'm not looking for a ridiculous amount of money. I just want a fair amount for where I'm drafted. The big money will be there later.

Rich: That's what I like to hear, Matt.

Matt: Being drafted in the first round is a special thing. Not many people get to do that.

Rich: Who is your adviser?

Matt: Ryan Hamill of CAA.

Rich: How did you go about selecting an adviser and what made you choose Ryan?

Matt: You need to talk to your agent a lot. He works for us. He's young and relates well. It just felt comfortable. Everything clicked. I hope to work with him for a long time.

Rich: Coach Stout told me that you worked out with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday. How did that go?

Matt: It went really well. They have a beautiful stadium. I took BP and infield, and then I played in a simulated game with high school and college players.

Rich: Did the team interview you?

Matt: Not really. But the area scouts and I know each other well.

Rich: Arizona has the 16th and 17th picks plus three more in the sandwich round. Any idea where the D-Backs might draft you, if at all?

Matt: The Diamondbacks definitely have an interest but they can't tell you where they might take you. We'll be talking. We'll just have to see how it goes.

Rich: Have you worked out for any other teams?

Matt: San Francisco and St. Louis. I had a couple of professional team workouts as a group on Saturday and Sunday.

Rich: Do you have any others scheduled between now and the draft?

Matt: I'm going to Milwaukee on Friday.

Rich: From a scout's point of view, how would you rank your five tools (hitting for average, power, fielding, arm strength, and speed) in order from best to worst?

Matt: Hitting for power would be my best. Hitting for average second. My arm third. Then fielding and speed. But I want to make them all even.

Rich: Plate discipline and pitch recognition skills play important roles when it comes to hitting. How would you rate this area of your game?

Matt: I really improved on that this year from last year. Dr. Harrison and his son Ryan of Slow the Game Down helped me out a lot. They work with a lot of major leaguers. Dr. Harrison is an optometrist who works on eye training. I've learned to pick up pitches well and now see the spin of the ball better. I'm laying off pitches and waiting to get my pitch.

Rich: I noticed that you had 27 walks and only struck out seven times this year.

Matt: Yeah, and I was also hit by a pitch like 14 times.

Rich: Yikes. Were they throwing at you intentionally?

Matt: Sometimes. But it might also be because I get on the plate a little bit. That probably helps.

Rich: Do you tend to guess type of pitch and/or location when even or ahead in the count?

Matt: Umm... Sometimes I do. But Danny has taught me to be more of a react hitter. I don't really like to sit on pitches. I just like to react. I don't do as well when I get away from that.

Rich: Do you change your approach when behind in the count?

Matt: Not necessarily. I like to have a game plan of what I'm going to do. With two strikes, I want to put the ball in play. Hit it hard somewhere. I don't like to change my swing at all. Just keep it the same.

Rich: What is the biggest difference between hitting with a wood bat vs. an aluminum bat?

Matt: Bat speed. You need to have strong hands and arms. The sweet spot is smaller. You can't hit the ball off the handle like with an aluminum bat.

Rich: Do you like using wood bats?

Matt: I love hitting with wood bats more than aluminum.

Rich: You won the home run derby at the Aflac All-American Classic last summer using a wood bat.

Matt: I did. I hit six at USC and three or four at Dodger Stadium before the game.

Rich: Do you prefer facing lefthanders more than righthanders?

Matt: No, not at all. It doesn't matter to me. The ball still is coming out pretty much the same.

Rich: Who's the most difficult pitcher you've faced thus far?

Matt: I would say John Meyer, a righthander from Cathedral High School in San Diego. He is going to Clemson.

Rich: Have you patterned your game after another player?

Matt: Definitely. Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Cal Ripken Jr. I like to pick a little from each one. But you have to be your own player.

Rich: Who is your favorite player?

Matt: Cal Ripken or David Wright.

Rich: What is your attraction to them?

Matt: They play the game the right way. They play hard. They play every night. They present a good image, always working, showing how it's done. They're good role models.

Rich: Speaking of which, you were a member of Best Buddies, a non-profit organization founded in 1989 that is dedicated to enhancing the lives of people with intellectual disabilities.

Matt: I was heavily into it last year but haven't been as involved this year with all that has been going on. I've always had a soft spot for the less fortunate.

Rich: You have also given hitting and pitching lessons throughout your community.

Matt: I continue to do that. I enjoy helping kids. There were people who helped me when I was a kid. I like giving back.

Rich: It sounds like you've got your act together, Matt. Where will you be on draft night?

Matt: I'll be at home. It's the night before grad night. The team baseball banquet is that evening.

Rich: Good luck on Tuesday. I appreciate you taking the time to talk to me tonight.

Matt: I enjoyed it. Thank you very much.

Rich: Thank you, Matt. I look forward to staying in touch with you.

Matt: Definitely.

Rich: OK. Take care.

Thanks to Jeff Stout for coordinating the interview and to Aflac All-American and Max Preps for the photos.

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Bryce Harper is on the cover of this week's Sports Illustrated and the subject of a featured article by Tom Verducci. The June 8 edition hits newsstands today.

The magazine calls Harper "The Most Exciting Prodigy Since LeBron."

His name is Bryce Harper. You don't know him, but every big league scouting director does. He hits the ball a desert mile, clocks 96 on the gun, and he's only 16, more advanced than A-Rod and Junior were at the same age. And his ambition is as great as his talent.

Readers of Baseball Analysts know "Baseball's Chosen One." We were one of the first to introduce him to the baseball world in an article last summer, entitled Remember This Name. We followed up that piece with Revisting Bryce Harper in January, including a photo and a YouTube video of his exploits at the third annual International Power Showcase High School Home Run Derby at St. Petersburg's Tropicana Field. Most recently, we detailed the stats from his sophomore season (.626/.723/1.339 with 14 HR in 115 AB and 36 SB in 39 attempts) in our High School, College, and Minor League Notes.

Owing to our past coverage, our site has been overwhelmed today by Google searches looking to learn more about Harper, causing occasional load issues.

In the meantime, the Las Vegas Review Journal wonders about Harper as it relates to the SI jinx, "which sometimes haunts athletes and teams that appear on the magazine's cover."

Hijinks (by the team lucky enough to draft and sign Harper in 2011 — or 2010 if he can get a "GED credential this summer and enroll in a junior college this fall" as Verducci mentions in his excellent article), yes. Jinx, no.

Remember this name.

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When it comes to the First-Year Player Draft, nobody is as wired to what's going on as Jim Callis, the Executive Editor of Baseball America. He talks to general managers, scouting directors, cross checkers, area scouts, college coaches, and agents, gathering valuable information for Baseball America's website and biweekly magazine. With his ear to the ground, Jim's final mock drafts are routinely the most accurate published. Two months before I met up with Jim on a trip to Chicago in the summer of 2005, he predicted the first 18 selections of the draft in the exact order that they were taken.

Born and raised in Virginia, Callis graduated from the University of Georgia with a degree in journalism. He began his career with Baseball America in December 1988, left for STATS, Inc. in September 1997, and returned to BA in May 2000. In total, Jim has been covering baseball for more than two decades, including 18 years with Baseball America.

Callis, 41, lives in the Chicago area with his wife and four children. In his spare time, he coaches his oldest son's 7th/8th grade baseball team. Like all of us, Jim is a baseball fan and his favorite team is . . . the Boston Red Sox! You can catch up with Jim about the draft, the Red Sox, baseball in general, and even pop culture in his online chats at ESPN Sports Nation.

Grab a cup of coffee, pull up a chair, and enjoy our discussion about the MLB First-Year Player Draft that begins Tuesday, June 9.

Rich: Hi, Jim. Thanks for taking the time to preview the 2009 First-Year Player Draft with us. How is this draft shaping up in terms of overall talent vs. those of the past?

Jim: It's not a good draft for position players, and it comes right after a draft that was loaded with hitters, so there's kind of a negative vibe about it. But there's talent in any draft. This one has plenty of pitching, college and high school, lefty and righty, whatever flavor you like, starting with arguably the best draft prospect ever in Stephen Strasburg. The college position players fall off a cliff quickly after North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley, but Ackley is a very good one. The high school position players are fine, with a lot of catchers and center fielders. It's kind of reminiscent of 2006, which was thought not to be deep in comparison to a hitter-rich 2005 crop, yet had Evan Longoria, Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain and a host of other very talented players. So that's a long way of saying that there's talent in this draft, there's just not much consensus. I actually wrote a column on this, so I'll plug it here, though you need a BA.com subscription to read it.

Rich: The Washington Nationals are the first team to own two of the top ten picks in the same draft. The No. 1 overall choice is the reward for having the worst record in baseball in 2008 while the No. 10 selection is compensation for not signing Aaron Crow with the ninth pick last year. Aside from issues involving health, is there any chance at all that Washington would take someone other than Strasburg with the first pick?

Jim: No chance. Strasburg will be the No. 1 overall pick, barring injury. The track record of pitchers taken No. 1 overall is less than scintillating, but he's still far and away the best talent this year, and that's who you have to take with the top pick. He'll cost a lot of money, but far less than he would if he were on the open market. He also should be able to crack Washington's big league rotation almost immediately, if not immediately. There's no excuse for not taking him No. 1.

Rich: Is the $50 million price tag for Strasburg that has been floated out there simply a strategic ploy on the part of Scott Boras to reset the bar for No. 1s or do you think he will hold to something close to that figure at the risk of not getting Strasburg signed by August 15?

Jim: I'm sure Scott Boras believes in his heart that Strasburg deserves $50 million. I also believe that if all 30 teams could bid on Strasburg, he'd get that money. But the leverage to get that money doesn't exist because Strasburg's only options are to 1) sign with whoever picks him or 2) re-enter the 2010 draft. There's no avenue to free agency. If Scott doesn't get his asking price, he gives the team every chance to up its offer right up until the deadline. So don't look for Strasburg to sign before 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 15.

Rich: Nationals president Stan Kasten has been quoted as saying, "We know what No. 1s get and we intend to sign that player...No one's situation is going to change the industry." Doesn't that comment suggest the Nationals are going to draft Strasburg with the intention of offering him an eight-figure contract but much closer to the $8.5M-$10.5M that the top three signees (Mark Prior, Mark Teixeira, and David Price) received than the $52M awarded to Daisuke Matsuzaka, the comp Boras has reportedly used?

Jim: I think that's exactly right. To sign Strasburg, the Nationals need simply to figure out what's the lowest amount they can offer that will be too risky for him to turn down in the end. The draft record for guaranteed money is $10.5 million by Prior, and I'm guessing Washington will come in somewhere between $15 million to $20 million. Matsuzaka's price tag was artificially inflated by the $51.1 million posting fee Boston paid, and his situation isn't analagous to Strasburg's.

Rich: According to Jim Bowden, Crow asked for $4.4M and turned down $3.5M. Do you think he will get that type of money this year?

Jim: I heard Crow wanted $4 million at the end. Those negotiations were botched by both sides, who should have met in the middle at the deadline. I do think he'll get similar money this year, though he doesn't have a ton of leverage. There's no way he can really go back into the 2010 draft at this point. He's pitching well in indy ball, and first-round pitchers who have gone that route have done very well in the draft. He could get one of those $5 million major league contracts. Most teams probably wouldn't give him that much, but there always seems to be one club that will. I think he could go as high as No. 3 to the Padres or No. 4 to the Pirates.

Rich: The other Independent League wild card in this year's draft is Tanner Scheppers. How would you compare and contrast Crow and Scheppers and where do you see the latter going?

Jim: Scheppers probably would have been a top-10 pick last year if he hadn't hurt his shoulder. He hadn't bounced back by the time of the signing deadline for the Pirates to give him big money as a second-round pick. Scheppers has more arm strength, while Crow has more polish and a better health history. Scheppers came out of the gates stronger this spring, but they're pretty even now. They both should factor in the top half of the first round, possibly in the first 5-10 picks.

Rich: Let's talk about what Washington is likely to do in terms of its compensation pick for not signing Crow last year. After you posted your Mock Draft, Version 1.0 two weeks ago, acting Washington general manager Mike Rizzo contacted Baseball America, and said, "We do not have to take a signability pick. We’re going to take the best guy. We’re going to have 10 names up there on the board, and we’ll take the one we like." It seems to me that the Nats have to be careful this time around because they won't get another compensation pick if they fail to sign this particular draft choice. Agree?

Jim: They do have to be careful, because teams don't get compensation for failing to sign a draft pick they got as compensation for failure to sign another. Reading between the lines of what Mike said, they very possibly could take a guy they like but the industry doesn't value as highly as the No. 10 pick, and in that case they could use their leverage to sign him to a below-slot deal. I don't think they'll use the price as their main focus of their pick, but I also don't think they're going to roll the dice on someone like Donavan Tate if he's still there.

Rich: There is an important distinction between ability vs. signability. Which teams are most likely to pay over slot to get the player they want?

Jim: Last year, the industry spent a record $188 million on the draft and 26 of the 30 teams exceeded MLB's bonus recommendations on at least one player. I think teams in general will be more thrifty this year. But the usual suspects, particularly the Yankees and Red Sox, I'm sure will be willing to spend if a talented player falls to them. The clubs generally don't announce this, though.

Rich: How many players that could go in the first couple of rounds are being advised by Boras this year?

Jim: Several. Scott has arguably the best prospect in draft history (Strasburg), the best hitter in this draft (North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley), the best high school position player (Cartersville, Ga., HS outfielder Donavan Tate), arguably the best high school pitcher (Westminster Christian Academy/St. Louis righthander Jacob Turner), the best middle infielder (Southern California shortstop Grant Green) and the best college lefthander (Oklahoma State's Andy Oliver). Other top-two-round Boras advisees include Gainesville (Fla.) HS outfielder LeVon Washington, Kentucky lefthander James Paxton, Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis and Rocky Mount (N.C.) HS outfielder Brian Goodwin.

Rich: Are there any teams that flat out won't deal with Boras? If so, which ones?

Jim: There are, though everyone at least kicks the tires on his guys and no one will admit to avoiding his players on the record.

Rich: Has MLB sent out guidelines for slot money this year?

Jim: We had early indications that the slot recommendations will be the same as last year, but Murray Chass has reported that Bud Selig wants to roll them back by 10 percent, just like MLB tried to do in 2007. We've since confirmed that. Suffice it to say that no one is happy. I've had agents tell me there's no reason for a first-rounder to sign before Aug. 15, and I had one front-office official describe it as "fucking bullshit." You may edit that quote as you like.

Rich: Those aren't my words, Jim, so I think I'll leave that quote as is. Forget slot recommendations for a minute. Given the economy and the state of baseball, do you expect signing bonuses will be negatively affected at any point in the draft?

Jim: I don't think bonuses will be slashed, but I do think there will be fewer teams who will aggressively sign players for well above the slot recommendations. The last time MLB tried to cut slots by 10 percent, bonuses went up anyway, so I don't think that will have as much of an effect as the economy will.

Rich: Which players stand to get "out of the box" type deals and why?

Jim: Strasburg, obviously, because of his immense talent. The top college pitchers usually get major league deals with a $3 million bonus and a $5 million total guarantee, so that's may be what Missouri's Kyle Gibson and North Carolina's Alex White are looking for. Then again, they haven't lit scouts up down the stretch, so they may be more apt to sign for slot. I bet Ackley will seek a big league contract as well. The three top talents who could fall the most in the first round because of asking price are Tate, who has the leverage of a football scholarship from North Carolina, Turner and Klein HS (Spring, Texas) lefthander Matthew Purke. The numbers we're hearing on those guys are $6 million for Tate, $7 million for Turner and $5 million for Purke. There also are starting to be rumblings that the other elite high school lefty, Tyler Matzek of Capistrano Valley HS (Mission Viejo, Calif.), may not be an easy sign either. There's no number on him yet but teams are thinking he may prove costly.

Rich: The price tag on Turner seems to be based on what Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello received. Is Turner in that same league?

Jim: He's very good, arguably the best high school pitcher in this draft, but I don't think he's in the same class as Beckett and Porcello. He's not far off, but he's not as highly regarded as they were in high school.

Rich: Given Tate's talent and and how the Braves have leaned toward Georgia-based prospects in the past, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that he could be atop their board, if available at No. 7. However, management hasn't been known to pay over slot and, as such, do you think Atlanta will forgo Tate for another player who may not be as risky or costly?

Jim: The Braves don't usually draft Scott Boras clients. Their last prominent one was Joshua Fields, and that didn't work out too well. I would be very surprised if Atlanta took Tate.

Rich: Purke has signed a letter of intent to attend TCU and would be a draft eligible sophomore in 2011, which means he could have as much leverage in two years as he does this year. Although I have likened the tall, lanky lefthander with the three quarters delivery to Andrew Miller (not sure if that's as high of a compliment today as it may have been a few years ago), I see him as a gamble for most teams (other than perhaps the Texas Rangers or Houston Astros) at that price tag. Could he slide all the way to the Boston Red Sox at No. 28 or to the New York Yankees at No. 29, a la Porcello in 2007 and Gerrit Cole in 2008? Porcello turned out to be a great selection for the Tigers but Cole rejected the Yankees and opted to go to UCLA instead.

Jim: He could slide that far, sure. I think the Rangers could be tempted by him if Brownwood (Texas) HS righthander Shelby Miller is gone, and I'm not sure the Astros would go that far over slot if Purke holds true to his price tag. My guess is the Yankees would be more likely than the Red Sox to take Purke.

Rich: Let's circle back for a minute. Strasburg is off the board and it's now time for the Seattle Mariners to make their first pick (No. 2 overall). Is Ackley the consensus choice here?

Jim: I think he is. For a long time, the story was this draft was Strasburg and no consensus No. 2. Now I think most teams in the top 10 picks would pop Ackley if they had their choice (assuming Strasburg is gone, of course). I would do the same thing. I think he's a can't-miss bat, should have at least average power and will be able to move to center field. He's the clear No. 2 prospect in the draft for me.

Rich: Some might say that the draft doesn't really begin until the San Diego Padres make their selection at No. 3. Do you think management will take USC shortstop Grant Green a second time (14th round in 2006)?

Jim: I projected the Padres to take Green in my first projected first round two weeks ago, but now I'm hearing that while they like him more than any team in the top 10, he's not in the mix at No. 3. I've heard Tate there, but he doesn't seem to fit their type of guy as a less-polished high school athlete with a huge price tag. I've also heard Crow and Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor there, too. Crow would make more sense to me, but may cost more as well.

Rich: If Green slips past the Padres, where do you see him going?

Jim: He's a real wild card. I can't see Boras advertising him as a guy who signs for slot no matter where he falls, and he hasn't lived up to what scouts expected this spring. Maybe he falls all the way to the Yankees, who spent their first-round pick on another USC player under similar circumstances (Ian Kennedy) a few years ago.

Rich: Which players have been climbing the draft boards the most since you put out your Mock Draft a couple of weeks ago?

Jim: Minor is going to go very high after pitching very well in his last two starts, likely in the first 10-15 picks. We have him rated as more of an early sandwich pick, and I think that's where his talent fits, but he'll go higher than that. Of the projected first-rounders from two weeks ago, I think most guys' stock is holding firm for now. Signability may have guys rise or fall but talent-wise, I don't think anyone else is really leaping up. Guys like Lipscomb lefty Rex Brothers and Indiana righty Eric Arnett continue to pitch well, but we had them as mid-first-rounders to begin with.

Rich: Aside from signability issues, whose stock has been dropping the most — and why?

Jim: White hasn't pitched well recently. He entered the year as the No. 2 pitcher behind Strasburg for some clubs, but now I think he probably won't go in the first 10 picks. A lot of teams are backing off of Green. Even if he'd sign for slot, he might last until the middle of the first round. Baylor righthander Kendal Volz had a chance to go in the top 10 but his stock has been dropping steadlily and he might be more of a third-rounder now.

Rich: Are there any debates as to where two-way players are best suited?

Jim: The biggest debate would be over Plant HS (Tampa) shortstop/righthander Mychal Givens. He's very raw but very talented at both positions, and I think it's a 50-50 split on which way he should go.

Rich: The Arizona Diamondbacks have back-to-back picks at 16 and 17. Do you see them taking one hitter and one pitcher or doubling up? Either way, will money get in the way of how the club approaches these selections?

Jim: I don't think they'll do anything beyond take the two best players, even if they're both hitters or both pitchers. They pick again at 35, 41 and 45, so if they double up they could always shoot for balance later. Ideally, I think they'd take a high school bat and a college pitcher. That is a lot of picks to pay, and it remains to be seen if they'll take some money-savers early in the draft.

Rich: After not having a first-round pick in three of the last four drafts, the Angels own the 24th and 25th spots this June, as well as three sandwich selections (40, 42, and 48). How do you see owner Arte Moreno, GM Tony Reagins, scouting director Eddie Bane & Co. handling this year's haul?

Jim: The Angels aren't afraid to spend and their farm system is flagging a bit, so I'd expect them to pay full freight for all five picks. They love athletes and projectable pitchers, and they love to focus on players in Southern California.

Rich: With the 2nd, 27th, and 33rd picks, Seattle is also in a good position this year. How do you see the new regime approaching these choices?

Jim: When he was running drafts in Milwaukee, Jack Zduriencik took the best player available, not caring if it was college vs. high school, pitcher vs. hitter, or what the general consensus on a guy was. The system isn't loaded with arms, so they might lean a little more toward some college pitching after grabbing Ackley at No. 2.

Rich: OK, let's finish with a big surprise. It could be anything. Let 'er rip.

Jim: Hmmm . . . I guess something that has jumped out at me recently is how a lot of the expected best college pitching duos (Baylor's Volz and Shawn Tolleson, Oklahoma State's Oliver and Tyler Lyons, Stanford's Jeff Inman and Drew Storen and Kent State's Brad Stillings and Kyle Smith) have mostly fizzled, with the exception of Storen. Now the two best come from unlikely sources: Kennesaw State's Chad Jenkins and Kyle Heckathorn, and Indiana's Arnett and Matt Bashore. Jenkins and Heckathorn could both go in the first round, as should Arnett (who would be the Hoosiers' first first-rounder since 1966), and Bashore may sneak into the sandwich round.

Rich: Excellent. Thank you, Jim, for taking the time out of your incredibly busy schedule to share your expertise on this year's draft with us.

Jim: No problem. Love your website, and always glad to help.

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Update: Jim posted his Mock Draft, Version 2.0 earlier today.

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Over the weekend, the NCAA Baseball Committee announced the field of 64 teams that will compete for the 2009 NCAA Division I Baseball Championship. As always, there were a handful of surprises.

The Big 12 (Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M) and Southeastern Conference (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Vanderbilt) landed eight spots each while the Atlantic Coast Conference (Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia) nabbed seven. Meanwhile, the Big West (Cal Poly, UC Irvine, Cal State Fullerton) and Pacific-10 (Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State) garnered three each.

The Big 12, SEC, and ACC combined for 23 of the 64 available berths in the NCAA tournament. By comparison, the West (including the six schools named above plus Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Utah) earned a whopping 10 spots or two more than the Big 12 or SEC. Mind you, the West sports the defending champ (Fresno State) and three of the top six national seeds (Cal State Fullerton, Arizona State, UC Irvine), yet is represented by less than 16 percent of the total field.

The top eight national seeds are as follows:

1. Texas (41-13-1)
2. Cal St. Fullerton (42-14)
3. LSU (46-16)
4. North Carolina (42-16)
5. Arizona St. (44-12)
6. UC Irvine (43-13)
7. Oklahoma (41-18)
8. Florida (39-20)

While Texas goes in as the favorite, it has been 10 years since the last No. 1 overall seed (Miami) won the College World Series. Along the same lines, no top-eight seed has emerged victorious since Rice in 2003.

Courtesy of Baseball America, the 64-team field is as follows (with Regional hosts listed No. 1 and national seeds indicated in parenthesis after the school name):

I'm all ears and eyes if anyone can explain to me how the Committee can justify placing UC Irvine (No. 1 ranked team in Baseball America's latest poll, the sixth overall seed, and the Big West champions), Virginia (No. 7 in Baseball America's poll and ACC tournament champions), Fresno State (defending NCAA champs and winner of the WAC tournament), and San Diego State (40-21 with a second-place finish in the Mountain West tourney) in the same Regional. The bracket is particularly unfair to UCI and Virginia, which gets the privilege of facing Stephen Strasburg, perhaps the greatest pitcher in the history of college baseball, in the opener on Friday night.

To be honest, it's hard to understand how Cal State Fullerton earned a higher national seed than UCI. The Titans finished five games behind the Anteaters in the Big West and lost the head-to-head series in early April. Granted, Fullerton (No. 1) has a higher RPI than Irvine (No. 18) but that should have little or no bearing when comparing two teams from the same conference that played an identical schedule in league and faced each other three times during the regular season. In any event, UCI gets Virginia, which could have conceivably been chosen as a Regional host, as its No. 2 seed and CSF gets Georgia Southern (unranked with the 35th highest RPI)? I'm sorry, but these pairings make no sense whatsoever.

Rice and Florida State can also make reasonably strong cases over Oklahoma and Florida for national seeds. As Baseball America's Aaron Fitt pointed out, "Rice was 21-9 against the top 100 teams in the RPI, and it finished strong by winning the CUSA tournament. And Florida State won the regular-season ACC title and reached the finals of the conference tournament."

Fitt also believes that "Oklahoma State is a horrendous, horrendous choice as an at-large bid." The Cowboys won just two of its nine conference series and finished ninth in a 10-team league, yet finds itself a No. 3 in the Clemson Regional. Baylor is another questionable call from the Big 12 (which is really the Big 10 when it comes to baseball).

The Regionals begin on Friday, May 29 and conclude on Sunday, May 31 (or Monday, June 1, if necessary). Selection of the eight Super Regional hosts will be announced on Monday, June 1 at approximately 11 p.m. ET. The Super Regionals will take place on June 5-7 and June 6-8. The best-of-three-games winners will advance to the College World Series at Rosenblatt Stadium in Omaha, Nebraska on June 13-23/24.

Additional notes (from the NCAA press release):

The Major League Baseball Draft will be held two weeks from tomorrow. The first day (Tuesday, June 9), which will consist of the first three rounds plus two compensation rounds, will be televised live by the MLB Network at 6:00 p.m. (ET). The draft will resume on Wednesday (fourth through 30th rounds) and conclude on Thursday (31st-50th rounds).

Baseball Analysts will live blog the draft once again, posting player profiles and comments as picks are unveiled. We plan to kick off our pre-draft coverage on Thursday, holding a Q&A with Jim Callis, Baseball America's resident draft expert. As in the past, we will also bring you interviews with several top prospects, including Tanner Scheppers, who returns to the draft this year after failing to sign with the Pittsburgh Pirates last summer. In addition, we will provide post-draft analysis, including Marc Hulet's shadow draft.

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Two years ago, I interviewed Josh Vitters, who was selected by the Chicago Cubs with the third overall pick in the 2007 draft. Due to a nagging hand injury, Vitters' pro career got off to a slow start, hitting a combined .118/.164/.118 in 55 plate appearances over two levels (Rookie and Short Season). He bounced back in 2008, putting up a .322/.357/.495 line, mostly at Boise in the Short Season Northwest League. The 6-3, 200-pound third baseman is taking it to a new level in 2009, raking at a .355/.381/.612 clip at Peoria in the Low-A Midwest League. He had five consecutive three-hit games from May 14-19 and has slugged seven HR in his past nine games.

While Vitters is drawing rave reviews (landing atop Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet for the past week), he has drawn only three walks in 160 plate appearances. Look for the aggressive-hitting Vitters to get promoted to Daytona of the High-A Florida State League soon but keep an eye on his BB/SO ratio as an indicator of his upside potential.

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I interviewed Kyle Skipworth, who Baseball America called "the best prep prospect at that position since Joe Mauer was the first pick in the 2001 draft," as part of our pre-draft coverage last year. Skipworth was taken by the Florida Marlins with the sixth overall pick and signed within a couple of weeks for a $2.3 million bonus. The lefthanded-hitting catcher has had a difficult time adjusting to pro baseball. However, his struggles in the Rookie League last year (.208/.263/.340) weren't atypical for a kid who had just turned 18 the previous March. Unfortunately, Skipworth appears to have regressed this season, hitting .174/.222/.294 at Greensboro in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Worse yet, he has struck out 44 times (with only seven walks) in 118 plate appearances.

More than anything, it just goes to show that scouting young baseball players is an inexact science and that some players develop more quickly than others while others never pan out. Only time will tell if Skipworth will become part of the first or second camp.

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Remember Bryce Harper? Well, it's time to revisit the 16-year-old sophomore from Las Vegas High School. The Wildcats completed their 2009 season about ten days ago and, according to Baseball America, Harper put up the following statistics:

The numbers look like they came right out of one of those video games where you can rig the system by creating the best possible player in the world. But these stats are the real deal. Harper hit eight of his 14 HR in the final seven games and ended the season on a 23-game hitting streak. One can only wonder why any team would even pitch to him at all.

Harper won't turn 17 until October 1. In the meantime, there's no rest for the young. He is expected to play in a full slate of wood bat summer league games. I'm hopeful of watching him perform in the Area Code Games in Long Beach once again and will keep readers apprised of the progress made by the slam dunk No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft.

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Meanwhile, in the here and now draft, check out the stats for a college pitcher out of San Diego State that you may have heard a little bit about:

The only question that remains is not whether Stephen Strasburg, who leads the nation in ERA and Ks, is taken first overall but how much he signs for ($10 million, $15 million, $20 million, $25 million, or the $50 million that the Scott Boras Corporation has reportedly floated out there)? Seeing that he is already on my fantasy baseball team, my hope is that he inks a contract well before the August 15 deadline and pitches for the Washington Nationals this year.

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Patrick Schuster, the Mitchell HS (New Port Richey, FL) pitcher who jumped into the national spotlight when he threw four consecutive no-hitters this season, is projected by Baseball America to go in the fifth or sixth round of the June draft. Look for the lefthander with four pitches, including a fastball that ranges from 87-92 mph, to make good on his commitment to the University of Florida if he's not drafted higher than that. You can view highlights of his slingshot delivery and an interview on ESPN's First Take here.

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The top two high school southpaws in this year's draft are Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, CA) and Matthew Purke (Klein HS, Spring, TX). I was impressed with both when I watched them pitch back-to-back, 1-2-3 innings in the AFLAC All-American Classic on TV last August. They each struck out two batters. Matzek throws four pitches but relies on a fastball that hit 93 twice that afternoon and a sharp-breaking curveball while Purke's more electric fastball out of a three-quarters arm slot touched 95. The latter may be a tougher sign as he has agreed to attend Texas Christian and will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2011.

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Update: The links to organizational statistics in our sidebar on the left have been updated for the 2009 season. Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com, you can access any player's major or minor league stats with one click. Go to the section labeled Reference, choose a team, then click on either "Bat" or "Pitch" and you will be taken to that club's complete list of major and minor league hitters or pitchers.

Furthermore, we have also updated our sidebar for the 2009 Draft Order for the first round and supplemental round. This information is courtesy of Baseball America.

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Our 16-team fantasy baseball league held its first replacement draft on Sunday night. Each team is allowed to drop and add two players. With five solid starters (Josh Johnson, Kevin Slowey, Ricky Nolasco [patience, patience], Scott Baker [patience, patience...or so I tell myself], and Paul Maholm) and perhaps the two best pitching prospects (Tommy Hanson and David Price) waiting in the wings, I really wasn't in need of a starter. However, I wanted to do my due diligence anyway and decided to check out a handful of available pitchers.

The "hottest" — if not best — free agent starter was probably Matt Harrison, who had recently tossed 22 consecutive scoreless innings and two straight complete game victories. Having never seen him pitch before, I checked out his last two starts on MLB.TV. Unlike MLB Extra Innings, you can go back and watch archived games on MLB.TV. As such, MLB.TV is a great source for scouting players.

Going in, I knew that Harrison was drafted by the Atlanta Braves and was the organization's top pitching prospect before he was traded, along with catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, pitchers Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones, and shortstop Elvis Andrus, to the Texas Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay in July 2007. (How is that trade working out for the Braves now? According to Baseball America, Salty, Andrus, and Harrison were the Braves' top three-ranked prospects in 2007. All three have contributed to the Rangers currently being in first place. Feliz (ranked 18th at that time) may have the highest ceiling of them all, if he can learn to command his outstanding stuff. Meanwhile, Atlanta basically has Casey Kotchman, acquired from the Angels for Teixeira a year later, to show for this lopsided deal.)

Here is what Baseball America had to say about Harrison two years ago:

The Braves cited Harrison as their breakthrough pitcher of 2005, and he maintained his momentum in 2006. He led Atlanta farmhands in ERA, reached Double-A before he turned 21 and now ranks as the system's top mound prospect. It seems like every quality lefthanded pitching prospect must be likened to Tom Glavine, but that comparison seems more legitimate when applied to Harrison. He's adept at using both sides of the plate and altering the batter's eye level. He delivers a heavy fastball between 89-92 mph and does an excellent job keeping it down in the zone. His above-average curveball breaks at times like a slider. Harrison also has a plus changeup that he uses at any time in the count. Harrison admits he gave Double-A hitters too much credit and wasn't aggressive enough following his midseason promotion. He needs to continue to learn how to mix his pitches in order to keep batters off balance. Harrison, who has No. 3 starter potential, could open 2007 in Triple-A, where he'd be knocking on the door to the big leagues.

Based upon my observations from Harrison's starts vs. the White Sox on May 8 and the Mariners on May 14, the above comments generally still hold true. His fastball, which he throws about two-thirds of the time, sat at 89-91 and touched 92 (with the two-seamer in the high-80s and the four-seamer in the low-90s). It appeared to me that Harrison was also throwing more of a cutter than what Fangraphs classifies as a slider, but it could be as much semantics as anything else. The pitch in question had a late, short break to it and was typically hitting 85-86. He also throws a changeup, which was mostly 78-79 according to the reports on the TV but has averaged 81.6 according to Fangraphs.

Harrison reminded me of Joe Saunders, a pitcher I've seen in person several times and on TV in dozens of games over the past few years. First of all, both pitchers are lefthanders. Secondly, they have somewhat similar builds (Harrison is slightly taller and stockier but they are within an inch and 10-15 pounds of each other). Thirdly, they have a similar repertoire (fastball, slider/cutter, and changeup). Fourthly, Harrison and Saunders throw their pitches at similar speeds. Lastly, they both have induced groundballs at an almost identical rate (Harrison 46.4%, Saunders 46.7%).

All of the above got me to thinking that the scouting reports — which, thanks to resources like pitch f/x, can now be quantified more accurately than ever — are perhaps a better predictor of performance than the pure stats. In other words, we may be coming full circle. The difference is that we might not have to rely mainly on the opinions of men sitting behind home plate wearing straw hats, holding radar guns, and reducing their findings to notes on index cards — at least in cases where ballparks have the necessary equipment installed. Instead, all of us can scout pitchers based on objective data (pitch types, speeds, locations, vertical and horizontal breaks, and arm angles) with more precision than ever.

For me, I would rather focus on the process than the results in almost any walk of life. In the case of identifying comparable pitchers, give me a same handedness hurler with a similar body type, pitch arsenal, speeds, and breaks, and I would value this information more highly than even the pitcher-independent stats (meaning K, BB, and HR rates), which have become all the rage among performance analysts this past decade.

In my opinion, the fact that lefthanded and righthanded pitchers with dissimilar builds, pitch types, speeds, etc. have similar stats has little or no meaning when it comes to predicting performance. Look for those projection systems that incorporate these micro details in the future to gain more traction than those that stick to the results only.

Oh, I almost forgot. I didn't take Harrison. Instead, I drafted Ian Stewart and Alberto Callaspo. These picks came down to needs for a team that lost Alex Gordon to a major injury less than two weeks into the season and now is facing the possibility of being without Rickie Weeks for an extended period. I have Brandon Wood on my team, but Mike Scioscia apparently prefers Erick Aybar, Chone Figgins, and Maicer Izturis over the 24-year-old über prospect hitting .347/.434/.806 with NINE home runs in 19 games at Triple-A.

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I have republished a few of my Dad's articles over the years in a series I dubbed the best of George Lederer. As longtime readers of this site know, he covered the Los Angeles Dodgers for the Long Beach Independent, Press-Telegram from 1958-1968 prior to serving as Director of Public Relations and Promotions for the California Angels from 1969-1978.

The following article, which was actually written about Dad rather than by him, appeared on the front page of the I, P-T sports section on August 11, 1971. Penned by Don Merry, the Angels' beat writer at that time (who later covered the Los Angeles Rams), the story wrapped around to the second page and was next to "Marichal tosses 2-hitter" and "Dust off mugs, Harmon finally rips 500th HR."

I was reminded of this article when Larry Diel, a family friend, gave it to my brother Tom last month. Larry, who was the first player ever selected in the amateur draft by the Montreal Expos, had cut it out of the newspaper 38 years ago and kept it in his possession for nearly four decades. Larry (in the middle), Tom (on the right), and I (on the left) met up for an Angels game against the Oakland A's in April and we reminisced about the article in question.

As a wordsmith with a sense of humor, Dad created a number of All-Star teams "based solely on names" as the article states. I can remember him putting together these lists at home on his typewriter using Western Union "yellowish" colored paper. Rereading the original newspaper article brought back lots of memories that I wanted to share. Enjoy!

What's in a name? Try these for size

Angels' PR chief finds anecdote for losing

NEW YORK — This has been a season of frowns and grimaces around Anaheim Stadium.

Laughter has been conspicuous by its absence. Somehow, there's nothing funny about being eight games under .500 and on a treadmill to nowhere in particular.

With this in mind, George Lederer decided it was time to inject a little humor into what has been a summer of sorrow. It is also assumed that Lederer, the former I, P-T staffer who is now Director of Promotions for the Angels, was attempting to divert attention from the field of play when he went about the task of devising several All-Star teams, based solely on names.

Without so much as an apology to Arch Ward, the late Chicago scribe who was responsible for the first midsummer classic in 1933, Lederer delved into the nearest baseball encyclopedia and emerged with the following, which, by the way, you'll not find among the archives at Cooperstown.

Leading off, naturally, is the Drinking Team, a subject close to the hearts of all press box inhabitants.

The catcher is Norm Sherry with an infield of Hal Chase, Eddie Joost, Bobby Wine and Harmon Killebrew. The outfield includes George Case, Goose Goslin and Johnny Hopp with Jim Bottomley and Jim Hickman in reserve.

The pitching staff of imbibers is awe-inspiring and features Bob Gibson, Jim Brewer and Pedro Borbon of modern vintage and such fully-aged names from the past as Chief Bender, Babe Birrer, John Boozer and Hollis Thurston.

Branch Rickey would be the general manager, Jigger Statz the field manager and the announcer, without peer, would be Milwaukee's Tom Collins. Hic.

Fortified by this success, Lederer plunged ahead and concocted what he calls his Cut-Up Team. Andy Seminick is the catcher with an infield of Rip Collins, George Cutshaw, Stan Hack and John Goryl and an outfield of Ray Blades, Bob Skinner and Jimmy Piersall.

For pitchers, there's Larry Staab, Steve Barber and Johnny Klippstein. The announcer? Who else but Harry Caray.

Having been a sportswriter for many years, Lederer naturally met his share of animals — or athletes as they are sometimes known in politer circles. Therefore, his All-Animal team. To wit:

Catchers, Joe Pignatano, Paul Ratliff and Don Leppert. Infielders, George Crowe, Nellie Fox, John (Spider) Jorgensen and Larry Bowa. Outfielders, Billy Cowan, Ducky Medwick and Estel Crabtree. Pitchers, Bob Moose, Bob Veale, Ray Lamb, Jim Kaat, Ted Lyons, Wally Wolf and, stretching a point, Dave La Roche.

For an announcer, who can top Jerry Doggett?

A God-fearing individual, Lederer also produced a Religious Team featuring Dixie Parsons, Jim Gentile, Johnny Temple, Charlie Neal, Max Bishop, Bob Christian, Dave Pope, Jose Cardenal, Bubba Church and Johnny Podres.

His Weather Team is composed of Merritt Ranew, Bob Hale, Joe Kuhl, Frankie Gustine, Gene Freese, Sonny Jackson, Curt Flood, Gordie Windhorn, Ron Weatherly, Denny Galehouse, Dick Drott, Don Drysdale and Bob Clear.

Listed on Lederer's Musical Team were the catching combination of Tookie Gilbert and Haywood Sullivan while others included Marty Keough, Rogers Hornsby, Sal Bando, Lou Stringer, Tommy Harper, Gus Bell, Ron Woods, Bill Singer, Bill Voiselle and Fred Toney. Cal Drummond heads the umpiring crew.

Showing his diversification, Lederer dreamed up a Lovers Team with Paul Casanova, John Romano, Dee Fondy, Jerry Priddy, Bobby Valentine, Rico Petrocelli, Sandy Amoros, Chuck Diering, Howie Bedell and George Brunet.

For a Trainer's Team or Hospital Team our man with the fertile mind came up with Elvin Tappe, Dave Ricketts, Cotton Nash, Jimmy Bloodworth, Eddie Pellagrini, Sibby Sisti, Earl Rapp, Johnny Groth, Johnny Callison, Jack Aker, Vic Raschi, Ray Scarborough, Phil Paine and Duane Pilette. The umpire is Hank Soar and Charlie Gassaway is the trainer.

"Eddie Pellagrini is my favorite," Lederer said. "Pella-GREENIE, get it?"

Finally, after working night and day for three weeks without much food or drink and, naturally, sleep, the hungry Lederer capped things with his Gourmet Team:

Del Rice, Danny Cater, Cookie Rojas, Pie Traynor, Gene Baker, Wally Berger, Zack Wheat, Billy Hamilton, Norm Bass, Woody Fryman, Gordon Maltzberger, Johnny Kucks and Chico Salmon. Beans Reardon is the arbiter.

"With this out of the way," Lederer explained, "all I need to worry about is if I still have a job with the Angels."

That and potential libel suits.

— Don Merry

Just as Eddie Pellagrini ("Pella-GREENIE, get it?") was Dad's favorite on his All-Star teams, the inclusion of the light-hitting infielder from the late-1940s and early-1950s brings a big smile to my face to this day. Pellagrini's name on the Trainer's Team says a lot about yesteryear and should serve as a reminder that baseball has never been as pure as today's critics of the steroids era would like to think.

On a separate note, which active players or even those from the 1980s and 1990s would qualify for these teams? Feel free to add players or create your own teams in the comments section below.

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Reader Gilbert Chan submitted the following photo and suggested I use it for a Foto Friday. The batter is plainly obvious. Can you name the catcher, the invisible pitcher, outcome of the at-bat and game, opposition, location, and date?

As always, good luck and have fun.

Here are the links to our previous nine Foto Fridays:

Foto Friday #1: August 18, 2006 (Hank Aaron and Jim Gilliam at McKechnie Field, March or April 1958.)

Foto Friday #2: September 8, 2006 (The Dodgers celebrate clinching the N.L. pennant in 1963.)

Foto Friday #3: November 3, 2006 (Bobby Valentine and Earl Weaver meet with umpires at home plate prior to a game on July 9, 1974.)

Foto Friday #4: February 9, 2007 (Don Drysdale blanks Giants, September 6, 1960.)

Foto Friday #5: April 13, 2007 (Ted Williams at-bat and Roy Campanella behind the plate in a spring training game, circa March 1952-1957.)

Foto Friday #6: July 6, 2007 (The Dodgers and Danny Kaye in the locker room after beating the Phillies in the first game of a doubleheader, the club's 12th consecutive victory, on June 1, 1962.)

Foto Friday #7: August 3, 2007 (Head and shoulder photos of obscure Angels.)

Foto Friday #8: August 22, 2008 (Hank Bauer, Norm Siebern, and Yogi Berra in the visitor's clubhouse in Cleveland Municipal Stadium. Bauer, Siebern, and Berra all hit home runs to lead the Yankees to a 9-4 victory over the Indians on June 17, 1956.)

Foto Friday #9: January 2, 2009 (Bobby Bonds sliding into second base as Jerry Remy applies the tag at Anaheim Stadium on August 10, 1975.)

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Let me set the stage. The date was June 13, 1971. I was three weeks short of my 16th birthday. My sophomore year at Lakewood High School was winding down. Finals were over, summer was about to begin, and my mind was on baseball.

Given my age, I wasn't paying close attention to the news outside of the baseball world. Little did I know (or care) that the New York Times published the Pentagon Papers, a top-secret Department of Defense study of America's involvement in the Vietnam War, in the Sunday newspaper that very day.

Closer to home (literally), I had no idea that Frank Sinatra was honored with a gala farewell that evening at the Music Center in Los Angeles. Ol’ Blue Eyes returned in November 1973 in "Sinatra - The Main Event" at Madison Square Garden.

Now, thirty-eight years later, I'm much more attuned to political news and Sinatra's music has its own playlist on my iPod. But, on the morning of June 13, 1971, I was thinking about one thing and one thing only: Ted Williams and the Washington Senators were in town to play the California Angels.

Courtesy of my Dad, who was Director of Public Relations and Promotions for the Angels, I had a pair of tickets that afternoon. I invited my longtime friend and high school basketball teammate Matt Cooper to the game. Matt had turned 16 several months before and he not only had a driver's license but his own car, a 1968 Pontiac Bonneville. Having a friend with wheels is important to any teenager. We went to a lot of games that summer.

On this particular day, Matt picked me up at my house between 9:30 and 10 a.m. Although the Angels-Senators game wasn't scheduled to begin until 2 p.m., we had one pit stop to make before heading to Anaheim Stadium. The Sheraton, a castle-themed hotel right off the Santa Ana Freeway, was the home of the Senators when the club was in Anaheim.

I was determined to add Ted Williams' signature to a ball that had been autographed by Mickey Mantle. Williams and Mantle. Now THAT would be an autographed baseball to pass down to my children. I had the ball, a blue ballpoint pen, and my game face on. I knew exactly what I wanted. I wasn't interested in getting Paul Casanova or Tim Cullen or Del Unser or Larry Biittner (double "i" and double "t"...I spelled it right!) to sign an autographed book or even their baseball cards. On this day, I was going to get their manager's signature. And nothing else.

Matt parked his car within steps of the team bus. We positioned ourselves between the hotel exit and the bus, waiting for "Mister" Williams, as I would call him, to emerge from the lobby. Ever the gentleman — at least with kids — Williams stopped in his tracks and paid special attention to the ball that I handed him.

As Williams was affixing his beautiful signature on the sweet spot above Mantle's gorgeous autograph, he said to me, "This is a special ball. You've got two Hall of Famers on there. Make sure you take good care of it."

Hall of Famers, ehh? Hmm. I was actually thinking much bigger than Williams. I thought I had the signatures of two of the greatest players in the history of the game on that ball. But he got me thinking, "I could turn this ball into one devoted to Hall of Famers." And Hall of Famers to be. See, Mantle had not been inducted into the HOF yet. While the Mick was retired, he was still three years away from his day in Cooperstown.

Just about the time my mind was focused on securing the autographs of Hall of Famers, out walks Denny McLain. You know, the 27-year-old pitcher with back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 1968 and 1969 and a Most Valuable Player Award, too. McLain, in fact, was the first pitcher in the history of the American League to win the Cy Young and MVP in the same season. He had three 20-win campaigns under his belt, including 31 victories in 1968, the first to win 30 games in a single season since Dizzy Dean in 1934. I mean, this guy was 117-62 with a 3.13 ERA. Little did I know that his ERA+ was only 110 at that point. I knew I should have been paying more attention to sabermetrics back then. Damn. Damn. Damn.

With "now this is my chance to add a third Hall of Famer to my ball" ringing throughout my head, I hand McLain my prized possession and ask him politely for his autograph. He grabs it and signs his name diagonally right smack in the middle of a separate panel on the ball.

I remember being more upset about the location of McLain's autograph than the signature itself. I don't know if Denny scrawled his name on my ball not knowing that Mantle and Williams had already signed it or if he did so purposely given his dislike for the Washington manager. Either way, the latest autograph didn't compare in stature or beauty to the other two. But, hey, a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, right?

If anything, I was so psyched by the prospect of adding to my themed baseball that I checked the Angels schedule and learned that the Boston Red Sox were going to be in town on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Matt and I headed back to the visiting team's hotel on one of those late afternoons or early evenings before what was then an 8 p.m. start time.

This time I set out to get Carl Yastrzemski's autograph. Yaz was only 31 at the time, but he had an MVP, a Triple Crown, three batting titles, and five Gold Gloves to his credit. Heck, he even had an OPS+ of 142 going into that season. As was the case with McLain, forget the fact that Yastrzemski was in the middle of his worst season ever. I know a Hall of Famer when I see one and these two guys were Hall of Famers, let me tell you.

Like McLain, Yaz positioned his less than bold signature on another panel that would make it difficult for anyone else to add their name next to his. I also added one more autograph either that evening or on the same day when I got Williams and McLain to sign my ball. The signature is none other than that of Joe Cronin, who was the president of the American League at that time. A major league player (1926-1945), manager (1933-1947), general manager (1948-1958), and/or president (1959-1973) for 48 consecutive years, he was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1956.

I did well with Williams, Mantle, Yastrzemski, and Cronin, but "not so much" with McLain. While four out of five ain't bad when it comes to most baseball endeavors, 80 percent doesn't get the job done with respect to putting together a Hall of Fame autographed ball. As it turns out, I would have been better off getting McLain's father-in-law to sign the ball — at least Lou Boudreau was a Hall of Famer.

You might say that I learned one of my first — and hardest — lessons about pitchers... if not that day in June, then certainly two years later when the 29-year-old McLain was released by the Atlanta Braves, never to appear in a major-league game again. He "retired" with 131 wins and one disgruntled fan in Long Beach.

Denny McLain may be Dennis Dale McLain to his mom and dad. But he's Denny Effing McLain to me.

* * *

Do you have a similar story to share?

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My buddies and I held our fantasy baseball draft a week ago Sunday. Our league is one of the longest, continuous fantasy pools in the country. The Lakewood Players League, as it is known, has been in existence, in one form or fashion, for over 30 years.

The current format has been in place since 1987. My older brother Tom, who has served as our commissioner since the beginning, tabulated the statistics by hand in the early going. We then contracted with a service called FASTats from 1988-1998. In 1999, we used an internet service (commissioner.com) for the first time. We moved to sportsline.com in 2001 and have stuck with this scoring service ever since.

There are 16 teams in our league this year. Other than in 1995 — the year after the strike that cancelled the World Series — when we had just 11 franchises (and I had to be talked into participating at the last minute), our league has had 13 to 16 teams every year. We draft new rosters annually. While "keeper" leagues can be fun, it is our belief that they can get a bit uneven after a few years, discouraging the weaker owners from participating year in and year out and making it difficult to find replacements to take over the worst teams.

Our league is unusual in that we don't allow trades or waiver wire pickups. To make up for the lack of these transactions, we expanded our rosters from 26 to 28 players two years ago and added a third mid-season replacement draft (at each of the quarter poles) where we allow teams, in the reverse order of the standings, to throw back and pick up two players (for a total of six over the course of the season).

Stolen bases have minimal value in our league. Unlike most fantasy/rotisserie pools, stolen bases are not one of four or five offensive categories. Heck, they're not even a separate category in our league. Instead, we take net stolen bases (defined as SB - 2*CS), multiply that by .5 and add it to walks plus hit by pitches. In other words, we treat (net) stolen bases as "extra" bases, if you will. As such, the Juan Pierres and Scott Podsedniks of the world hold about as much value in our fantasy league as they do in real baseball. Close to zero. Just the way I like it.

We have also reduced the value of closers by making saves worth half as much as the other pitching categories (IP, ERA, WHIP, and K minus BB). However, our league is far from pure as we have a few team-dependent stats such as wins, win percentage, runs scored, and runs batted among our mix of counting and rate stats (with the former two also treated as half categories).

What I most like about fantasy baseball vs. other fantasy sports are the number of teams, players, positions, stats, and games — all of which combine to reduce the randomness and dependency on one or two players a la football. Fantasy baseball, in my mind, is a true test. Sure, injuries play a factor (just like in real baseball), but the owner who wins it all basically has the best collection of players in our league.

I've won the LPL fantasy baseball pool six times since 1987, including back-to-back titles in 1989 and 1990 and a three-peat from 1995-1997. My last championship was in 2006. I have finished third or better every year since 2001 sans one. I am coming off two second place finishes in a row and am hopeful that I can get back into the winner's circle again this year.

I drew No. 1 out of a hat for the first time since 1999. I had the option of either going first or sliding down to any spot of my choosing. With a serpent draft format in a 16-team league, picking first means you have the No. 1, 32, 33, 64, 65, etc. choices. What's a guy to do? I kept No. 1 and picked Albert Pujols. I've never had Prince Albert on my team before. In fact, I haven't even had a shot at him since 2003 when I selected Manny Ramirez with the 11th pick and Pujols went two spots later at 13. He was taken first or second from 2004 through 2007, then dropped to seventh last year due to concerns going into the season about his elbow.

Here is how I drafted round-by-round:

 1. Albert Pujols: For me (and probably most others in my shoes), it was between Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Some people take Ramirez because of the value of stolen bases in most fantasy pools. Others take him because of positional scarcity. I love Hanley but chose Pujols. Only time will tell if I made the right choice.

 2. Nick Markakis: I had him ranked as my fifth-best outfielder. The top four (Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, and Manny Ramirez) were all taken in the first 24 picks. Carlos Beltran was chosen 25th. The top three 2B, 3B, and SS were off the board as well. I thought Markakis was the next-best bat available among players not named Chipper Jones. I'm expecting a .300 season with 20+ HR, 40+ 2B, and close to or more than 100 BB, R, and RBI (or a virtual repeat of 2008 with a few more ribbies thrown in). Those across-the-board stats work for me in that spot.

 3. Ricky Nolasco: I stepped up on Nolasco. Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, and Roy Oswalt were off the board. Although this pick isn't looking too swift after two starts, Nolasco may have been the best pitcher in the majors from June 10 through the end of last season.

 4. Matt Holliday: I was surprised that Holliday was still available as my fellow owners apparently shied away due to the trade that sent him from Colorado to Oakland. Even if Holliday falls a tad short of Greg Rybarczyk's projection, I will be happy with him at No. 64.

 5. Alexei Ramirez: This was the first time I thought long and hard about my choice. His hack-tastic approach at the plate bothers me, but Alexei is a second baseman *and* shortstop out of the shoot in our league and the two-position flexibility was enough to sway me to take him over Troy Tulowitzki, who was the next-highest SS on my board. Like Nolasco, Ramirez is off to a less than thunderous start, but he hit .304/.331/.502 with 21 HR in 118 games once he was inserted into the starting lineup on May 16.

 6. Josh Johnson: This pick is looking better with each start this season. I probably had him ranked higher than any other competitor in my pool. Johnson was a plus/plus/plus K/BB/GB pitcher last year and seems poised to improve upon his half season in 2008 now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. The 25-year-old righthander throws a mid-90s fastball that touched 97 on the radar gun for GameDay and 98 for TV in the ninth inning of his complete-game victory over the Mets yesterday, as well as a nasty slider.

 7. Kevin Slowey: Greg Maddux light. We double count walks via WHIP and K-BB, making Slowey at least as valuable in our league as in real baseball. He posted an ERA under 4.00 with a WHIP of 1.15 and a K/BB ratio over 5:1 last year. Check out his minor league stats when you get the chance.

 8. Chris Iannetta: With eight catchers already gone at this point in the draft, I was quite pleased to get Iannetta. He hit .264/.390/.505 with 18 HR and 56 BB in 104 games last year. Iannetta, who turned 26 earlier this month, is off to a slow start but should be fine as long as manager Clint Hurdle doesn't panic and go with Yorvit Torrealba as his regular catcher.

 9. David Price: I expect Price will be recalled no later than May 15. Although it's unlikely that the young lefthander will overpower major league hitters for six innings as a starter the way he did for an inning as a reliever in the postseason last October, there's little reason to think the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball won't have a successful rookie season.

10. Nelson Cruz: Fantastic minor league, (partial season) major league, WBC, and spring training stats coupled with a great ballpark and lineup were enough to convince me that Cruz could put up some BIG numbers this year. Going into the draft, I had an inkling that I liked Cruz more than anyone else. Who knows, I may have been able to float him for another 32 picks, but I didn't want to take that chance.

11. Scott Baker: I think he fell a couple of rounds due to a sore arm that cost him a start last week. However, he is scheduled to make his first start on Wednesday at home against the Blue Jays. If Baker is healthy, he will be a steal at No. 161 in the draft.

12. Rickie Weeks: Long on potential, short on results to this point in his career. Call me a sucker, but I think he is going to hit around .260 with 15-20 HR and score 100 runs.

13. Rick Ankiel: I just had to remind myself that Ankiel hit .270/.343/.537 with 20 HR and 50 RBI in the first half before suffering an injury and limping home with a .245/.319/.415 (5 HR, 21 RBI) second half. I'm betting that he will be produce better numbers over a full season in 2009 than 2008.

14. Alex Gordon: The NCAA Player of the Year, the Minor League Player of the Year, and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 draft should be about ready to break out this year, no? I was jazzed when he went yard in his first AB of the season but am fully aware that he has gone 1-for-14 since and sat out yesterday with a stiff right hip. He produced counting stats last year that were equal to or better than his rookie campaign in 2007 while increasing his walk rate nearly 70% and decreasing his strikeout rate ever so slightly.

15. Frank Francisco: One of my two "sleeper" relievers. Francisco throws gas and didn't allow an earned run from August 18-on last season while posting a 21/4 K/BB ratio and five saves.

16. Tommy Hanson: Great minor league, Arizona Fall League, and spring stats. Hanson was the first pitcher to win the MVP award in the AFL when he struck out 49 batters in 28.2 innings with a miniscule ERA of 0.63 in a hitter-friendly environment. He whiffed 10 batters in 4.1 scoreless innings in his Triple-A debut last Thursday. With Tom Glavine unable to answer the opening bell, Hanson could be in Atlanta's rotation as early as this week.

17. Brandon Morrow: Like Francisco, Morrow is not on the best team for a closer but he is in a weak division and a favorable ballpark. I saw the fireballing righthander implode in his opening game but manager Don Wakamatsu stuck with Morrow and allowed him to save two games over the course of three days.

18. Paul Maholm: Having drafted two minor league starters up to this point, I needed a solid fifth and chose Maholm to go along with Nolasco, Johnson, Slowey, and Baker. The lefty throws strikes, generates more than his share of groundballs, and eats innings. Exactly what the doctor ordered at that spot.

19. Kelly Shoppach: Did you know that Shoppach was third in HR among all MLB catchers with 21 last season, just two behind the co-leaders (Brian McCann and Geovany Soto)? He won't hit much more than .250 or .260 but could crank 20 HR again with sufficient playing time.

20. Brett Anderson: With five starting pitchers in hand plus two high-ceiling minor leaguers, I wanted someone who was not only expected to take a regular turn in the rotation but had a little bit more upside than the fourth and fifth type starters that were still available. Anderson gives me both. Was pleasantly surprised to see him throwing as hard as 94-95 on the radar gun in his MLB debut last week.

21. Chone Figgins: Not as valuable in our league as most other fantasy formats but still above-average in a few categories.

22. Adam Jones: Only 23, Jones is probably a year away from being a fantasy star. His spring and first-week stats, along with the fact that he is batting second between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis, give me hope that he can be serviceable this year if called upon.

23. Stephen Strasburg: Partly for fun but also as a potential difference maker down the stretch. There isn't a starting rotation in the majors that he wouldn't make better right now.

24. Grant Balfour: Third-highest weighted Z-score among all relievers last year. Fastball sits at 94-95 and can reach the upper 90s on occasion.

25. Lyle Overbay: What can I say? Except for Overbay, every starting first baseman in baseball may have been taken at this point. Look, if Pujols gets hurt, my team's not going to win it anyway.

26. Brandon Wood: Only a phone call away. Wood will be up in no time if Erik Aybar or Chone Figgins get hurt or if the Angels use him as trade bait for a starting pitcher. Either way, I think he is (finally) ready to play every day in the majors and could hit in the .260s with 20 HR if given the opportunity.

27. Chan Ho Park: Nothing special here. With two minor leaguers and an amateur among my starting pitchers at this juncture, I opted for Park, who performed well as a starter last year and this spring.

28. Aaron Miles: Assuming Wood gets some PT, Miles is my third-string SS and 2B. He is a leading candidate to get tossed back at our first replacement draft in mid- to late-May.

Oh, after the first week, I'm in third place. It's early. But it's sure fun.

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Hours after pitching six shutout innings on Wednesday night, Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Nick Adenhart, 22, was killed in a felony hit-and-run car accident in Fullerton, California early this morning. The story is still developing. You can read a brief news story here.

The Angels have had a history of bad luck when it comes to player deaths. But the more important concern for now is Adenhart's family, friends, and teammates.

Like the rest of the baseball world, all of us at Baseball Analysts are shocked and reach out with our deepest sympathies and most heartfelt condolences to the families of all the victims at a time when the game itself seems so meaningless.

I had the privilege of interviewing Nick three years ago after he made his debut in the California League. In honor of him, we are going to re-run that interview today.

Nick Adenhart: A Rising Star (Once Again)

I watched Bryan Smith's 23rd-ranked prospect make his California League debut two weeks ago yesterday and had a chance to interview him after the game.

Nicholas J. Adenhart (A-den-hart) is a 6-foot-3, 185-pound right-hander out of Williamsport, Maryland. He is a very accomplished pitcher for someone who has yet to celebrate his 20th birthday. Adenhart was Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2003 and its top-ranked high school prospect prior to his senior season in 2004. He tossed a perfect game in his first outing that spring, striking out 15 of the 21 batters faced.

A cinch first-round draft pick heading into his senior year, Adenhart blew out his elbow in May and had Tommy John surgery one week after the Los Angeles Angels selected him in the 14th round (413rd overall). Area scout Dan Radcliff and director of scouting Eddie Bane convinced Adenhart to forego a scholarship offer from the University of North Carolina and signed him to a $710,000 bonus on July 26, 2004.

Adenhart spent the next year rehabbing his elbow in Tempe, Arizona before making his professional debut on June 25, 2005. He pitched 50 innings in the Arizona and Pioneer Rookie Leagues that summer, fashioning a 3-3 record with a 3.24 ERA. Not surprisingly, his command was a bit off, walking 24 batters or 4.32 per 9 IP. However, he offset his wildness with 59 strikeouts, good for 10.62 K/9.

At the age of 19, Adenhart earned a non-roster invitation to the Angels' big league camp this spring. He threw three innings without allowing a run. Nick faced the Chicago White Sox, the defending World Series champions, in one outing. "I threw strikes and got a couple of punchouts," he told me matter of factly in the locker room in the aftermath of winning his Cal League debut for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

Adenhart was assigned to the Cedar Rapids Kernels (Low-A) out of spring training. He dominated Midwest League hitters, leading the circuit in wins (10) and placing third in ERA (1.95) and strikeouts (99 in 106 IP). His performance earned him a starting assignment in the All-Star Game on June 20 and a promotion to the organization's High-A affiliate nine days later.

Sporting a Fu Manchu-style mustache, the dark-haired prized prospect got the start on July 2 and pitched six innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out four in front of Bane and several scouts. Thanks to Ben Johnson's 3-for-3 night (including a pair of home runs and two walks), Adenhart earned his first victory for the Quakes and his 11th of the season in a performance that was less than overwhelming but hinted at his star potential. Six of the eight hits were to the opposite field and the only extra-base hit was a slicing double to left in the fifth that failed to produce a run.

"My pitch selection was good, but I left a couple of the pitches over the plate with two strikes," was Nick's response when I asked him about his outing. "I wasn't at my best in terms of command."

Trying to establish his fastball the first time through the lineup, Adenhart ran into trouble in the second, allowing four hits (including three in a row to open the inning) and a trio of runs. "My touch and feel was off, and I was trying to do too much."

Adenhart "calmed down" and gave up just three hits and one run over his final four frames. "I located my fastball better down and in the zone."

The second-year pro throws a two-seam and a four-seam fastball. "I throw my two-seamer about 80-90% of the time. There is no difference in velocity between the two fastballs. I use my four-seamer when trying to elevate on 0-2 and 1-2 counts or into left-handed batters and away from right-handed batters."

Adenhart's fastball was clocked in the high-80s-to-low-90s, topping out at 94 on a few occasions. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and has only given up two home runs in 170 innings in his professional career. "Both home runs were on changeups that I left up."

"I get good sink on my two-seamer," while attributing his favorable groundball-to-flyball ratio to the pronation in his delivery. Nick recorded 11 of his 14 non-strikeouts on the ground the evening I saw him pitch.

Adenhart, who was invited to but did not pitch in the Futures Game, also throws an 11-to-5 curveball in the mid-70s and a circle change in the low-80s. "My changeup tends to be a strikeout pitch. I get lots of swings and misses, especially down-and-away to left-handed batters."

I asked Nick how his elbow felt two years after undergoing surgery performed by Dr. James Andrews. "My elbow is great. It feels different than before I had the surgery. But there is no pain or discomfort."

Adenhart made his next start five days later but was limited to just two innings (2-1-0-0-0-3 with three groundouts) a couple of days prior to the Futures Game. His next outing was last Wednesday, an impressive six-inning, four-hit, one-run victory with six strikeouts. He has pitched 120 innings thus far, going 12-2 with a 2.10 ERA. (Complete stats from MiLB.com.)

Although Adenhart won't turn 20 until August 24, I wouldn't be surprised if he made it to the big leagues at some point during the 2008 season. Once he arrives, the kid with the three "plus" pitches is apt to become part of a starting rotation that could include Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and fellow 2004 draftee Jered Weaver. The future of the Halos looks bright indeed.

Photo credit: Rob McMillin, 6-4-2.

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All of us at Baseball Analysts are throwing a Johan Santana changeup at you today and posting short takes on what we found interesting on Opening Day.

Angels 3, Athletics 0

I sat in the front row behind the Angels dugout (that's me on the far left) and witnessed Joe Saunders carve up the A's, allowing only three hits and two walks over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. In opposition to the consensus perception, Saunders is not a soft-tossing lefthander. According to FanGraphs, his fastball averaged 91.0 mph last year and it ranged from 88-92 on Monday night. His 93rd and last pitch of the evening hit 91 and resulted in a weak comebacker off the bat of Oakland catcher Kurt Suzuki, who was retired 1-3.

Manager Mike Scioscia handed the ball to Jose Arredondo to close out the seventh. He was throwing 93-94 (in line with his 93.7 average last season). Scioscia then went to Scot Shields in the eighth. He retired the side in order with a heater that was 91-92 (vs. 92 last year). Newly signed free agent Brian Fuentes closed out the ninth 1-2-3 and earned his first save as a Halo. The slinging southpaw was working at 89-90 (down a tad from a year ago when it was sitting at 91-92).

While the Angels bullpen lacks a Jonathan Papelbon and Boston's depth (which is strong enough to exclude Daniel Bard and the easiest-throwing 100-mph fastball you've ever seen), it ranks among the best in the league. Look for Arredondo, Shields, and Fuentes to finish the final three innings of numerous games this season.

A couple of other quick takes:

• Chone Figgins made two spectacular plays at third base in the first and third innings, one where he ranged to his right, backhanded it, and made a strong throw to nip former teammate Orlando Cabrera and a second in which he dove to his left and forced out a baserunner at second with a throw from his knees. Figgy may not win any Gold Gloves for his work at the hot corner but is better defensively than generally believed.

• Howie Kendrick had two run-scoring hits, including a home run that left the park just to the right of straightaway center field. It's easy to forget that Kendrick is only 25 years old and averaged .360/.401/.571 during his minor league career (with 50 HR in 1669 plate appearances). Howie could inflict a lot of damage from the two hole this season.
  

...and a couple of departing questions:

• Why is it that respected analysts such as those at Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, and our own Patrick Sullivan and Jeremy Greenhouse pick the A's over the Angels to win the AL West?

• What am I missing?
  

If one is worried about the Angels' starters, then one has to be equally concerned about the A's. Sure, LA is doing without Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and Ervin Santana in April (and perhaps part of May for one or more of the trio). But the Angels managed to go 18-11 last April without any help from Escobar or Lackey (or Mark Teixeira, for that matter). By contrast, OAK opened the season with Dallas Braden and the rotation includes Dana Eveland, a guy named Josh Outman (nice name for a pitcher but c'mon), and two highly touted but untested rookies who have thrown a combined total of 68 innings above High-A and have yet to appear in anything above Double-A. Meanwhile, the bullpen is in shambles and in no way compares to what the Angels can deliver in the late innings.

While I picked the A's to finish second behind the Angels in our AL West preview last week, I believe (as I opined on Friday) that Oakland "could find themselves in the cellar come October if the young pitchers aren't up to the challenge and Beane trades Holliday in July."

It's only one game. I know there are still 161 games to play. But I see no reason to change my assessment of the Angels and A's after last night.

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Courtesy of The Hardball Times, the table below details the top 20 line-drive rates over the past five seasons. Do you notice any repeaters? There are only two players who qualified more than once: David Wright twice (2005 and 2008) and Michael Young FOUR times (2004-2007).

Does this data say more about Young's proclivity in hitting liners, his home ballpark, or the bias of scorekeepers? A combination of the three? Or perhaps something else?

This table captures a number of career years. Freddy Sanchez hit .344 with an OPS of .851 in 2006 vs. career averages of .300 and .753. Brian Roberts hit .314/.903 in 2005 vs. .284/.771. Geoff Jenkins hit .292/.888 in 2005 vs. .275/.834. Chone Figgins hit .330/.825 in 2007 vs. .290/.743. Ryan Ludwick hit .299/.966 in 2008 vs. .273/.857. Brady Clark hit .306/.798 in 2005 vs. .277/.744. Joe Mauer hit .347/.936 in 2006 vs. .317/.856.

Other than Juan Pierre, all of these players had BA/BIP over .300 with a mean of .340. Young, for what it's worth, owns three of the top four BA/RISP (among this sample size), including the only one greater than .400.

Of note, Young is the only Texas player included in the above list, which suggests LD% has more to do with the hitter than the effects of the ballpark or scorekeeper. However, it should be noted that Mark Teixeira had a 28.2% LD rate in 2003. In addition, Hank Blalock (2005), Milton Bradley (2008), and Ian Kinsler (2008) had rates that fell just outside the top 20. As such, I think it is fair to say that ballparks influence LD rates.

According to Baseball Analysts contributor Jeremy Greenhouse, there have been about 50 Rangers with at least 100 plate appearances since 2005 and the average line-drive rate (sans Young) was 20.5% vs. 19.9% league wide. Furthermore, in a study at Fangraphs, Brian Cartwright determined that "a batter is 18% more likely to have a batted ball coded as a LD" in Arlington . . . "while in Minneapolis, it's 20% less likely."

As Tangotiger wrote in response to Brian's work, "A 'line drive' is not necessarily a line drive. If hitters are showing as hitting 20% fewer line drives in the Metrodome than away from the Metrodome, we don't know if it's because the Metrodome depresses LD rates, or if it's because the scorer in Minnesota is depressing it. Since it makes a huge difference when looking at LD and FB rates, then you need some sort of park factor to normalize the data . . . Taking a guess, I have to believe this is a scorer issue. A line drive is really a batted ball that leaves the bat at a certain angle, at a certain velocity. I don't see how those things would affect whether a ball is a LD, FB, or GB, regardless of the park you are in. I can see how the scorer can be influenced by the positioning of the fielder (and worse, if the fielder caught the ball or not), and try to assign a batted ball code."

The thread attached to Tango's comments is fascinating and includes posts by Colin Wyers, Mike Fast, MGL, Greg Rybarczyk, Dave Studeman, and David Gassko. It is worth reading if you're into advanced batted ball studies. As studes points out, "From my work in the 2006 THT Annual, there was a greater standard error in line drive rates per park than in GB or Outfield Fly rates. Not outrageously higher, but definitely higher." You can also download a PDF of the 2004 THT Annual that includes Robert Dudek’s groundbreaking article on hang time, which is important because, as Tango notes, "how much time it takes for the ball and the fielder to intersect" is what is really important in differentiating between batted balls.

There are a number of questions to ask when it comes to batted balls. What percentage is attributed to the hitter or pitcher, the ballpark, or the scorekeeper? What distinguishes a line drive from a hard-hit groundball or a looping flyball? Is a one hopper that skips past the infield classified as a grounder or a liner? Does the ball have to hit the outfield grass first in order to be coded as a line drive? How high can a ball be hit and still be considered a line drive? Should the outcome have an effect on how a batted ball is coded? Does the outcome have an effect?

Play by play, batted ball, pitch f/x. We know a lot more today than we did just five years ago and we will know a lot more in five years than we know today. Hit f/x is next. Stats are not ridiculous. Only those who ignore (the right) stats are ridiculous.

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San Diego State's Stephen Strasburg, who struck out 16 batters and hit 102 on the gun SEVEN times a week ago today, is scheduled to make his third start of the season this afternoon against the University of San Diego at Cunningham Stadium at 2:00 p.m. (PST).

Strasburg (2-0, 1.46) has punched out 27 batters in 12 1/3 innings thus far. His pitching line stands as follows:

  IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR
12.1   8   3    2    3   27    0

The 6-4, 220-pound righthander, who has whiffed 55 percent of the batters faced in his first two outings, made a name for himself last April when he fanned 23 in a one-hit, 1-0 complete-game shutout vs. Utah. He was the only college player named to the Olympic team last summer and threw a one-hitter while striking out 11 over seven innings against Netherlands.

I saw him make his 2009 debut vs. Bethune-Cookman two weeks ago and shared my observations, as well as those from a few scouts I spoke to, in a scouting report published the following day. He K'd 11 batters that afternoon while consistently hitting 96-99 and reportedly touching 100 in the first inning according to a couple of radar guns behind home plate.

The 20-year-old junior followed up that appearance last Thursday night, striking out every hitter in Nevada's starting lineup at least once except first baseman Shaun Kort, who had a single among his three at-bats. Strasburg fanned seven of the first nine batters he faced and struck out the side four times. The 16 K's were the third-highest recorded in Mountain West Conference history. He was named Louisville Slugger National Player of the Week by Collegiate Baseball magazine.

You can check out his mechanics and stuff in a slo-mo video from the game I witnessed. His pitching motion has been criticized by Driveline Mechanics and others due to the so-called inverted W, a la Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Jeremy Bonderman, Anthony Reyes, A.J. Burnett, and Shaun Marcum. All of these pitchers have experienced major arm injuries at some point in their careers. For the sake of both Strasburg and the Washington Nationals, the team with the No. 1 pick in the June draft, let's hope he can avoid such arm troubles because he is one of the most exciting young prospects in the game, be it the amateur or professional level.

Update: Strasburg strikes out 18 over eight innings in a 5-3 victory over the 11th-ranked University of San Diego. Now 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA, Strasburg allowed two runs in the first three innings before settling down and retiring the next 11 batters in a row, including nine strikeouts. He has now whiffed 45 and allowed only four walks in 20.1 IP.

 IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR
8.0   5   2    2    1   18    1

(Full story. Box score and play by play.)

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The Commissioner's Office released the final baseball payrolls for 2008 in late December. Not surprisingly, the New York Yankees spent $75 million more than the next highest team (Boston Red Sox) and $126 million over the average MLB team.

Last year, in an effort to analyze payroll efficiency, I created a graph with payroll on the y-axis and wins on the x-axis. I added a positively sloping trendline and four quadrants to provide a visual aid in determining the most and least efficient teams in terms of payrolls and wins.

Rob Neyer suggested that I plot this same information using multiple seasons, "as that would give us a better idea of the franchises' general competence over a period of years." With the foregoing in mind, I did just that. Thanks to data provided by Maury Brown at the Biz of Baseball, I added up the player payrolls and wins for the previous three seasons and divided them by three to get an average of each.

The two tables below detail the average payrolls and win totals, sorted by the former on the left and the latter on the right. The average payroll works out to $89.86M, which means MLB has spent an average of approximately $2.7 billion in each of the past three years (for a grand total in excess of $8 billion).

Payrolls cover the 40-man rosters and include salaries and prorated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values. Luxury taxes are not part of these payroll figures nor are the posting fees for Japanese players.

    

As shown, the Yankees led the majors in payroll over the 2006-2008 seasons, spending $70M more than the Red Sox and $126M over the average team. Nonetheless, the Los Angeles Angels have won more games than any other club during this same period, followed by the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets. These four franchises were the only ones to average 90 or more victories the past three campaigns. Of note, the Bronx Bombers have spent $100M more per season than the Angels (and $305M over the three years), yet have one less win per campaign to show for their efforts. The inclusion of luxury taxes and posting fees would only widen the gap between the Yankees and the rest of the league.

The information in the tables can be displayed graphically as follows:

Based on this graph, we can once again categorize teams by the trendline and the four quadrants. Starting in the upper-right end of the graph and moving clockwise, the northeast quadrant includes teams that won more games than average with a higher-than-average payroll. The southeast quadrant depicts clubs that won more games than average with a lower-than-average payroll. The southwest quadrant includes teams that won fewer games than average with a below-average payroll. The northwest quadrant lists teams that won fewer games than average with a higher-than-average payroll.

The blue trendline indicates the positive correlation of team payroll and wins. The correlation coefficient works out to 0.64. The coefficient of determination (or R-squared) is 0.41, which means payroll explains 41 percent of a team's win total. A large portion of the balance is determined by the impact of "cost-controlled" players (i.e., minimum or close to minimum in years one through three and roughly 40-60-80 percent of free agent market values in years four through six, respectively) as Dave Studeman, who improved the correlation coefficient to 0.77 and the R-squared to nearly 0.60 for the 2006 season, pointed out in an intelligent piece in The Hardball Times a couple of years ago.

Furthermore, the relationship between payroll and wins is not linear. The difference between the highs and lows of wins (67-94) is much more tightly bunched than payrolls ($27M-$216M), suggesting that marginal wins are significantly more costly than average wins. In other words, going from 70 to 80 wins isn't as important — or costly — as going from 80 to 90 wins. By my count, 68 of the 78 teams that have won at least 90 games during the past 10 years have participated in the postseason. Win 90 and you have about an 87 percent chance of playing beyond the regular season.

Sticking to the graph, teams above the line were less efficient and teams below the line were more efficient in terms of getting the most bang for their buck. While average wins are a reasonable proxy of success, most teams are primarily focused on earning a spot in the playoffs to give them a shot at winning the World Series. Under the "flags fly forever" truism, I'm going to excuse any team that wins it all from the list of so-called inefficient teams. While the Red Sox may pay up for (part of) their success, the truth of the matter is that Boston is the only team that has won two World Series titles during the current decade. In other words, the Red Sox have been more efficient in winning World Championships than any team in baseball, not an insignificant accomplishment for a franchise that calls the AL East its home.

Aside from the Red Sox (and the Cardinals and Phillies, winners of the other two World Series in the past three seasons), which teams were the most and least efficient during the 2006-2008 time frame?

Six clubs have averaged more than 81 wins with payrolls under the league mean of $89.86M. The best of the best was Minnesota (winner of the "doing the most with the least" award), followed by Cleveland, Toronto, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Oakland. All but the Blue Jays made the playoffs once, which probably says as much about Toronto's competition as anything else.

I already cited the Phillies for winning the World Series last season but Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Angels deserve a lot of credit for payroll efficiency as well. The former captured the NL East in 2007 and 2008 and narrowly missed the playoffs in 2006, while the latter took the AL West the past two seasons but lost to the Red Sox in the ALDS both times. The Halos, lest we forget, are one of the eight clubs to have won a World Series title this decade.

Colorado, San Diego, Florida, and Tampa Bay share the award for "doing the best while pinching pennies." The Rockies (2007) and Rays (2008) made it to the World Series, while the Padres were awarded the NL West title in 2006 due to winning the season series vs. the Dodgers, the other team that won 88 games that year, and lost in a play-in game the following season. The Marlins, of course, won the World Series in 2003, the second in just a seven-year span.

The clubs in the northeast quadrant and above the trendline had mixed results. All of these teams won more than their share of games, but they did so at a cost. The Yankees are the biggest outliers by far, spending over $200M above and beyond the Red Sox with no World Series titles and only two postseason wins to show for their huge financial commitment. In fairness to the Yankees, they won a World Championship at the outset of the decade and missed out on the playoffs in 2008 for the first time since the strike-shortened season in 1994. All of the NEQ clubs made it to the playoffs at least once but only the Red Sox and Cardinals won championships.

Moving to the least efficient teams, Seattle wins the award for "doing the least with the most," while San Francisco, Atlanta, and Houston also won less than their fair share of games while sporting higher than average payrolls. In addition, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Washington spent payroll dollars unwisely during the past three years. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Texas all reside on top of the trendline, meaning each team won about as many games as expected given their payrolls.

While relatively simplistic, graphing payrolls and wins — especially over a multi-year period — allows us to evaluate how efficiently ownerships and managements are spending payroll dollars.

Update: The following graph is the same as the one above except that it includes a polynomial rather than linear trendline.

The polynomial trendline improves the R-squared to .49 versus .41 for the linear. In response to a reader's question in the comments section below, I listed the regressions for each and calculated marginal wins are worth approximately $3M using the linear and range from essentially zero at the left end to as much as $7M at the right end (i.e. going from 92 to 93 wins) based on the polynomial. The bottom line is that the polynomial regression does a much better job at capturing marginal payroll and wins than the linear expression.

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The 2009 salary arbitration process, which was collectively bargained and implemented in 1974, has come and gone with the players making out just fine. Of the 111 players who filed for arbitration last month, 65 settled prior to exchanging salary figures, 43 negotiated contracts after submitting numbers, and only three cases were heard by arbitration panels (with the players winning two and losing one).

Florida Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla won his arbitration case and will make $5.35 million rather than the $4.4 million the team offered. Washington Nationals righthander Shawn Hill was awarded his asking price of $775,000 instead of the $500,000 submitted by the club. Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, on the other hand, lost his arbitration case and will make $2.1 million rather than the $2.5 million he was seeking. Don't feel too badly for Navarro as he will still pull down $1,667,500 more than the $432,500 he earned in 2008.

Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball has compiled all of the vital stats. According to Maury, the average year-over-year increase in salary for the 111 players who filed was a "whopping 751 percent."

As Fred Claire observed, "The arbitration-generated salaries are in sharp contrast to what has happened in this year's free-agent market where a number of high-profile players have had to sign contracts far below their expectations and a number of other 'name' players remain on the sidelines without contracts."

What was of interest to me were the number of contracts that were negotiated at or near the midpoint with little interest on the part of players and owners to "win." I put together a list of ten first-year eligible position players who signed one-year contracts earlier this month to avoid salary arbitration with the objective of analyzing these deals. There were several others who avoided arbitration by signing longer-term agreements. The latter transactions are much more difficult to compare than the relatively simple and straightforward one-year deals.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves here, I thought it would be instructive to review the ins and outs of salary arbitration. The Major League Baseball Players Association provides the following primer on its website.

Q: When does a player become eligible for salary arbitration?

A: A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

The details of the ten negotiated contracts referred to above are provided in the following table, along with positions, ages, major league service time, and career batting (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS+) and fielding (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) rate stats:

                    POS    BORN     ML SERV   CONTRACT    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS+  UZR/150
Andre Ethier        RF    4/10/82    2.153    $3.100M    .299   .364   .482    116     0.1
Jeff Francoeur      RF    1/08/84    3.088    $3.375M    .268   .312   .434     92     9.6
Corey Hart          RF    3/24/82    3.038    $3.250M    .277   .323   .485    106    -0.5        
Conor Jackson       LF    5/07/82    3.067    $3.050M    .287   .367   .443    105    11.5    
Mike Jacobs         1B   10/30/80    3.047    $3.250M    .262   .318   .498    110    -8.6
Kelly Johnson       2B    2/22/82    3.127    $2.825M    .273   .356   .440    108    -9.1
Ryan Ludwick        RF    7/13/78    3.109    $3.700M    .273   .345   .512    122    10.3
Rickie Weeks        2B    9/13/82    3.131    $2.450M    .245   .352   .406     97   -10.9
Josh Willingham     LF    2/17/79    3.123    $2.950M    .266   .361   .472    117    -6.0
Ryan Zimmerman      3B    9/28/84    3.032    $3.325M    .282   .341   .462    110    10.0

The average contract calls for a 2009 salary of $3,127,500. Ryan Ludwick ($3.7M) received the highest amount of money and Rickie Weeks ($2.45M) the lowest with the other eight tightly bunched in a range of $2.95M (Josh Willingham) to $3.375M (Jeff Francoeur).

Although Andre Ethier only had 2.153 years of MLB service, he was eligible for arbitration as a "Super Two." Ethier ranks first in AVG, second in OBP, fourth in SLG, and third in OPS+, yet agreed to a deal that was only the sixth highest overall and last among his peers in right field. This one looks like a better deal for the Dodgers than Ethier.

Francoeur and the Braves agreed to a salary that was exactly in the middle of the figures that were exchanged ($3.95M and $2.8M). He has the worst OBP and OPS+ of them all despite manning a corner outfield position. He is the second-youngest player in the group but that is neither here nor there when it comes to salary arbitration. He is one of the most overrated players in baseball and his contract is a huge win for him and a disservice to the arbitration process.

Corey Hart re-signed with the Brewers for the average of what each side wanted ($3.8M and $2.7M). No performance bonuses were attached to the deal. Hart's stats pale in comparison to Ethier but his back-to-back 20 HR/20 SB seasons give his numbers more sizzle in an arbitration hearing than his similarly aged counterpart. I would call this one a fair deal for both sides.

Like Hart, Conor Jackson and the Arizona Diamondbacks reached a settlement that split the difference between what each side submitted ($3.65M to $2.45M). There were no performance bonuses. His UZR rating in left field is based on a small-sample size, and it is still possible that he could end up at first base (where he sports a -3.5 UZR/150 games rating) if Eric Byrnes is healthy and productive enough to win back his job in left. Let's call this one a draw.

Mike Jacobs signed with the Royals at a price ever so slightly below the mid-point of what he asked for ($3.8M) and what the club offered ($2.75M). The first baseman can make up the gap of $25,000 by being named to the All-Star team. He has the second-highest SLG but plays a position that demands power, especially when one doesn't get on-base more often or contribute in a more positive manner defensively. When KC acquired him, I figured he wouldn't make more than $3M in arbitration. I stand corrected and believe his contract is a bit on the high side given his overall production.

Kelly Johnson and the Braves met at the halfway point of their submissions ($3.3M and $2.35M, respectively). The second baseman can earn $50,000 if he reaches 620 PA and another $25,000 for 670 PA. At best, Johnson can make $2.9M, which would be the second-lowest agreed-upon salary in this group. I believe this deal is the opposite of Francoeur's — a good one for the team and a bad one for the player. If anything, this contract is another in a long line of examples where second basemen are treated unfairly by the system.

The gap between the Cardinals offer ($4.25M) and Ludwick's asking price ($2.8M) was the largest in this sample. It appears as if St. Louis tried to lowball him initially because he wound up receiving a salary that was much closer to his side plus the following performance bonuses: $25,000 each for 625 and 650 PA and an additional $50,000 for 675 PA. Ludwick ranks first in career SLG and OPS+ and is coming off the best season, by far, of any of these players. However, he was rewarded handsomely for his contributions.

Weeks and the Brewers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.45M deal, which was just above the mean of what each side submitted ($2.8M and $2M). Weeks can also earn the following performance bonuses: $25,000 each for 575, 600, 625, 650 PA although it should be pointed out that he has never reached any of those levels in a four-year career that has been marred with injuries and disappointments. It looks like a fair deal based on actual performance but potentially a smart one on the part of the team if Weeks finally fulfills his promise.

Willingham signed with the Nats at a price below the mid-point of the salary ranges ($3.6M-$2.55M). He will earn $25,000 at each of the following plate appearance totals: 525, 550, 575, 600. All told, Willingham can make $3.050M in salary and bonuses, which is just below the average of what each side submitted. His contract is lower than any other outfielder and appears to favor the team slightly more than the player.

Ryan Zimmerman was re-signed by Washington exactly between what the Nationals offered ($3.9M) and what the player submitted ($2.75M). He will receive the following performance bonuses: $75,000 for 500 PA and an additional $50,000 each for 550 and 600 PA. If he reaches 600 plate appearances, Zimmerman will make $3.5M in salary and bonuses. Zimmerman has the fourth-highest career OPS+ and is undoubtedly the best fielder in the peer group at one of the most challenging positions. This is a deal that will most likely pay off for both sides should the youngest player earn his performance bonuses.

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"It's a beautiful day for a ballgame... Let's play two!"

- Ernie Banks

Is there anything better than a doubleheader? In February, mind you?

Well, my brother Tom and I attended two college season openers yesterday. Two games. Two ballparks. Two of the top-ranked prospects in the country and two of the best pitching performances on the opening weekend of the year. All in all, it was a beautiful day, one that Mr. Cub would have loved.

The first game of our day/night doubleheader matched San Diego State against Bethune-Cookman at the Major League Baseball Urban Youth Academy's Collegiate Baseball Tournament in Compton. The second contest was the opener of a three-game set between Long Beach State and the University of Southern California at Dedeaux Field.

Tom and I were joined by general managers, scouting directors, area scouts, and agents in making the 15-mile, 25-minute trip from Compton College to USC. Of the nearly 1,000 fans at each of the two games, approximately 5 percent were employed by MLB teams.

Come the draft in June, we may look back and say there were closer to 6 percent. Scratch that. Not June. But August. You see, Scott Boras represents Stephen Strasburg and Grant Green, who just may go 1-2 in the draft. If not for the weak economy, I could see Boras asking eight figures for Strasburg, the first college player to be named to the U.S. Olympic team since the decision was made to use minor leaguers beginning in 2000.

Boras, whose son Shane is a freshman infielder for USC, was at the evening game. The agent must have been in a great mood after getting the lowdown from one of his scouts on Strasburg's pitching performance earlier that afternoon. While not perfect, the 6-4, 220-pound righthander was dominating, striking out 11 of the 23 batters he faced without allowing an earned run over 5 2/3 innings while leading the Aztecs to a 6-3 victory over the Wildcats.

              IP    H   R   ER  BB  SO
Strasburg     5.2   3   1   0   2   11

Strasburg's fastball lit up the radar guns. While a couple of scouts had him at 100 in the first inning, his gas was sitting at 96-99 from the windup and 93-96 from the stretch all afternoon. His curveball, which is more of a tight-rotation slurve than a 12-to-6 drop, was 79-81, a few mph below his normal 81-84 range according to a scout who has followed him closely. Strasburg's breaking ball didn't have as much depth as you might like, especially when he released it away from his body, but it is an effective companion to his heater.

If Strasburg's fastball is a "plus plus" or a 75/80 on the 20-80 scale that scouts use, his curveball was more like "solid average" or a 55 on Friday. He experienced occasional problems in landing his front foot correctly, causing him to be a bit off balance when throwing his slurve.

As for a third pitch, Strasburg didn't show much. Out of 103 pitches, the 20-year-old junior threw his changeup one time. ONCE. As in one more time than zero and one less time than two. At 88 mph, it's a pitch that many major leaguers would welcome as their fastball. The one scout would like to see him throw it more often and another scout I spoke to told me that it "looked good in the bullpen" before the game.

Aside from the 11 Ks, Strasburg induced four groundball outs and two opposite-field flies to left. He hit one batter, walked two more, and gave up three hits: a first-inning double, a grounder that was pulled just inside the third-base line on a well-located curve below the knees; an infield single to lead off the third that could have gone either way; and a run-scoring single to right field in the sixth, which was the last pitch he threw before being taken out of the game by manager Tony Gwynn.

Strasburg is undoubtedly a special talent and only a major injury or unreasonable bonus demands will keep the Washington Nationals from drafting him No. 1 in the MLB Draft in June.

After getting our fill of one "burg" in the day game and knowing we were going to be watching a "berger" (as in USC RHP Brad Boxberger) in the nightcap, Tom and I opted not to get a hamburger between games and instead settled for prime rib sandwiches at Quizno's. We took the 91 freeway to the 110 and avoided traffic – not bad for rush hour on a Friday in Los Angeles – until a few exits short of our destination, arriving in plenty of time to snag seats in the second row directly behind home plate.

We were treated to another superb pitching performance, one that looked every bit as outstanding as Strasburg's in the box score but not quite up to the same level from a scouting perspective. Not to be outdone, Boxberger allowed just one hit and no runs while striking out a career-high 11 batters en route to USC's 5-3 victory over Long Beach State.

              IP    H   R   ER  BB  SO
Boxberger     6.0   1   0   0   6   11

Boxberger was most impressive in the first inning when he struck out the side after allowing the first two Dirtbags to reach base on a walk and an infield error. His fastball was electric in the opening frame, hitting 92-94, but quickly dropped to 90-92 in the second, and sat mostly in the 80s thereafter.

The 20-year-old junior whiffed two more batters in each of the next three innings (although only one of the three non-strikeouts was put into play as the other two were recorded on runners attempting to steal second base), running his K total to nine through four innings. He failed to punch anybody out in the fifth but nailed two more in the sixth to give him 11 for the evening.

Boxberger not only had a combined 17 strikeouts and walks but found himself in several 3-and-2 counts, throwing a total of 123 pitches on the night. However, the 6-2, 200-pounder came up big when needed, overpowering the opposition's slow bats and keeping them just enough off balance with his slider and curve. An area scout who pitched in the majors during the 1990s told me that Boxberger "probably needs to choose one or the other because you need a lot of feel to throw both."

Unless Boxberger can build up his arm strength, he might make a better reliever than a starter. If so, it wouldn't be the first time that he was asked to pitch out of the bullpen. He was the closer for the Chatham A's of the Cape Cod Baseball League last summer, appearing in 19 games and recording nine saves while striking out 28 without allowing a home run in 18 2/3 innings. Boxberger has good bloodlines as his father went 12-1 with a 2.00 ERA and was named the Most Valuable Player of the 1978 College World Series in leading the Trojans to a national championship.

Robert Stock, a junior who doubles as the starting catcher and closer, went 2-for-3 with a walk, threw out two runners (one in which he made a quick release and great throw after backhanding a pitch) and tossed a perfect ninth (while hitting 90-91 on the radar gun) for his first save of the season. The 6-1, 190 LHB/RHP cranked a double to right-center to lead off the bottom of the second inning and lined a single to left on a curveball from a southpaw that was on the outer half of the plate in what can only be described as a nice piece of hitting. His only out was another liner to left that looked like a hit upon contact but was run down.

Stock, who skipped his senior year in high school and just turned 19 three months ago, hasn't fulfilled the lofty expectations placed upon him since being named Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2005. He has hit .248 (59-for-238) with only 14 XBH in two summers in the Cape for the Cotuit Kettleers. But it is important to remember that Stock is still young and has always played against older competition. This just might be the year that he breaks out.

The main disappointment of the day was watching Green go hitless in four at-bats while striking out three times, twice looking. The 6-3, 180-pound shortstop was fit to be tied, perhaps trying to do too much in his debut. He swung and missed with a pronounced upper cut on several hittable pitches and took a few others that were in the strike zone but not in his wheelhouse. With USC pitchers striking out 15 and nailing two trying to steal, he didn't have a lot of activity in the field but made a nice play ranging to his left on a chopper over the mound.

A scout sitting in the row behind us said Green "doesn't look as strong as he did in the Cape" (when he hit .348/.451/.537 and was among the league leaders in most offensive categories) and believes he's not as physical as Troy Tulowitzki, a comparison that I mentioned after watching him make his collegiate debut two years ago and others have made as well. He likes his hands and thinks Green can stick at shortstop in the pros, yet seemed unconcerned because the only thing that could keep him from manning that position is getting too big, which wouldn't necessarily be the worst thing in the world.

The USC-Long Beach State weekend series will resume tonight at 5 p.m. at Blair Field while San Diego State faces Southern University in the MLB Urban Youth Academy Tournament at 6:00 p.m. The latter game will be televised live on the MLB Network. I'm going to the Trojans-Dirtbags contest and will be in my seat in time to see actress Sandra Bullock, who lives with her husband Jesse James in nearby Sunset Beach, throw out the first pitch.

Update: Sandra Bullock and the Long Beach State hitters pulled a no-show on Saturday night as the Trojans shut out the Dirtbags 4-0 in the second game of the weekend series before a record crowd of 3,342 at Blair Field.

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If you're not a stathead, fantasy geek, or a baseball nerd, then you might want to skip ahead to the rankings of pitchers in the middle and at the bottom of this article. Or you just may want to skip this article altogether and check out Deadspin, the Onion, or read the latest story or opinion on Alex Rodriguez and his cousin.

You see, I've been sorting and manipulating spreadsheets on the computer in my parents' basement (kind of embarrassing when you're 53) for the past several days. However, I'm not only planning on seeing the light of day this afternoon, I will be one of the fortunate souls who will attend two season openers today: Stephen Strasburg and San Diego State are facing Bethune-Cookman at 2 p.m. PT at the MLB Youth Academy in Compton and the Dirtbags are meeting the Trojans at 6:30 p.m. at Dedeaux Field on the campus of USC. I'll be sure to trade in my pajamas and green eyeshade for a pair of jeans and a Long Beach State (my hometown team) and USC (my college) baseball caps.

In the meantime, thanks to loyal reader and baseball enthusiast Ryan Thibodaux, I have developed a system to rank pitchers based on their strikeout, walk, and groundball rates. I had categorized pitchers by K and GB rates last week before adding BB to the mix earlier this week. The K and GB rankings were grouped in quadrants while the K-BB-GB rankings were presented in eight different sets.

On average, we know that pitchers in the northeast quadrant and those with above-average K-BB-GB rates fared better than their peers, yet many of the top hurlers fell into the southeast quadrant despite sporting strikeout rates – the most important variable of the three – that were superior to many of their counterparts in the more tony neighborhood of the NEQ. So which one is better? A pitcher with above-average K and GB/K-BB-GB rates or one with an outstanding K rate and more modest BB-GB rates?

To help answer that question, Ryan posted a spreadsheet with z-scores on a fantasy baseball website that linked to one of my articles above. After reading the thread and a comment that he left on our site, I contacted him and proposed that he weight the three variables by their relative impact rather than evenly. The deltas in above-average and below-average ERA and R (vs. their means) for each of the various classifications as well as the individual K, BB, and GB correlations to ERA and RA suggested to me that strikeout rates were nearly two times as important as walk rates and five times as important as groundball rates. The best-fit ratio was approximately 5:3:1 or 5:2.5:1.

If you're one of the statheads, fantasy geeks, or baseball nerds still with me, here are the correlation coefficients for strikeout, walk, and groundball rates to ERA and RA for the universe of 135 starting pitchers with 100 or more innings last year:

           K          BB          GB
ERA     -0.5786     0.3306     -0.1121
RA      -0.5918     0.3118     -0.0796

Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. By squaring these correlations, we produce coefficient of determinations (R²) that provide measures of how well outcomes are predicted by the model. Accordingly, the 5:2.5:1 weighting explains about 50 percent of a pitcher's ERA and RA, which is incredibly high given that team defense accounts for the lion's share of the unexplained balance. While we can improve the R² by substituting HR rates for GB, the former is not as reliable as the latter in terms of predicting future performance.

The K-BB-GB rates and z-score rankings can be accessed in this spreadsheet. The 135 qualifying pitchers were separated in quintiles by color. As such, there are 27 starters in each grouping or about one per team. If you'd like, think in terms of each quintile as No. 1s, No. 2s, No. 3s, No. 4s, and No. 5s in starting rotations. The reality is that front, middle, and back of the rotation starters are determined based on quality (which is the sole determinant of these rankings) and quantity (ability to pitch every fifth day, go deep into games, and amass a lot of innings over the course of a season).

The top quintile is presented below.

Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Mike Mussina, Chad Billingsley, Roy Oswalt, Edinson Volquez, Derek Lowe, James Shields, and Ryan Dempster are all residents of the northeast quadrant. Sabathia, Haren, Halladay, Lee, Webb, Mussina, Oswalt, Lowe, and Shields are nine of the dozen pitchers from the K+/BB+/GB+ grouping. The other three are John Lackey, who heads up the second quintile; Andy Pettitte, ranked fourth in the second quintile and 31st overall; and Jon Lester, another member of the second quintile.

For purposes of illustration, I have included Lincecum's z-scores for K/BF and BB/BF (top row) and GB (bottom row) below. The colored portion of the normal distribution represents the area of probability. (You can compute your own z-scores in this applet.)

Lastly, here are the top 30 relievers as measured by z-scores.

Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon 1-2. There must be something to do this methodology.

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I have added a new wrinkle to our series of categorizing pitchers by including walks as well as strikeout and groundball rates. The best pitchers miss bats (K), keep batted balls in the park (GB), and command and control the strike zone (BB).

By evaluating all three variables, we can focus on what a pitcher exercises the most authority over. While this study is not intended to quantify a pitcher's Defense Independent Pitching Statistics or Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, it borrows from these concepts for the primary purpose of categorizing pitchers by types (high K, low BB, high GB to low K, high BB, and low GB and the other six combinations of highs and lows).

Tangotiger has written an easy-to-understand primer on the subject of the Defensive Responsibility Spectrum, which discusses DIPS and introduces FIP. As we know, pitchers have the greatest influence over items such as K, BB, HBP, and HR (as well as balks, pickoffs and, to a lesser degree, wild pitches).

While I intend to use HBP in the future by combining them with BB, I did not include the former in this first attempt at categorizing K, BB, and GB types. I also chose to substitute GB% for HR rates two years ago when I began this series because the latter tends to fluctuate more based on ballpark factors (distances, altitude, and wind) and perhaps, to a certain extent, luck.

The results detailed in the table below are based on 135 pitchers who completed 100 or more innings and started in at least 33 percent of their appearances in 2008. Among these qualifiers, the average K/BF rate was 16.90%, the average GB rate was 43.45%, and the average BB/BF rate was 7.89%.

For ease of understanding and consistency, I have designated "better" than average with a plus sign ( + ) and "worse" than average with a minus sign ( - ). Based on these labels, one can readily see how different groups of pitchers fared last season.

As shown, strikeouts had the greatest impact on ERA and RA, followed by walks, and groundballs (which could also be thought of as batted balls as a more generic type). Accordingly, K+ BB+ GB+ > K+ BB+ GB- > K+ BB- GB+ > K+ BB- GB- > K- BB+ GB+ > K- BB+ GB- > K- BB- GB+ > K- BB- GB-.

As a rule of thumb, pitchers with plus strikeout rates will have a better-than-average ERA and RA. Conversely, pitchers with minus strikeout rates will have a worse-than-average ERA and RA. Both of these general principles apply irrespective of the other variables with one exception: pitchers with minus K rates combined with plus BB and GB rates will typically sport average ERA and RA.

Another key takeaway is that pitchers with plus K, BB, and GB rates as a group will produce ERA and RA that are about 1.00 better than average. At the other end of the spectrum, pitchers with minus K, BB, and GB rates as a group will fashion ERA and RA that are about 0.85 worse than average. Therefore, the difference between the best and worst groups is nearly two runs per nine innings. Disparities among the best and worst Individual pitchers will obviously be greater than these averages.

Let's take a look at these eight classifications of pitchers.

A valuable aspect of categorizing pitchers and listing K, BB, and GB rates is the ability to see comparable pitchers. Without applying similarity scores, one can see that John Lackey and Roy Oswalt are more alike than not with the latter producing slightly better walk and groundball rates. Both righthanders are fastball-slider-curveball types with Oswalt throwing a couple of miles-per-hour harder than Lackey. Oswalt gets the nod but probably not by as much as the differences in their career ERA+ (139 to 117).

Cliff Lee, Mike Mussina, and James Shields are bunched with the former getting the edge over the latter for his superior K and BB rates. Ervin Santana and Josh Beckett are hard-throwing (94.4 and 94.3 mph, respectively) righthanders with comparable K, BB, and GB rates. Dan Haren has a nearly identical K rate as Santana and Beckett but slightly better BB and GB rates. Although Javier Vazquez throws right and Wandy Rodriguez left, their fielding independent stats are not all that different even though the Houston starter is a relative unknown compared to the well-traveled, newly acquired Atlanta pitcher.

One of my favorite comps is Cole Hamels and Johan Santana, two of the best southpaws with plus-plus changeups. Ricky Nolasco may be just as good, or at least he was last year! The main difference between Jered Weaver and Scott Baker is that the latter has a roughly 20 percent better walk rate. Both righties are FB-SL-CH flyball types although Baker throws his heater about a mile per hour harder than Weaver.

A.J. Burnett and Chad Billingsley are two peas in a pod with respect to K, BB, and GB rates. Both throw gas and a hammer curve with A.J. lighting up the radar guns and his investment portfolio a bit more than his younger counterpart. When it comes to Felix Hernandez and Ubaldo Jimenez, there are more similarities (including the two hardest average fastballs in 2008) than differences as I first pointed out last July.

Other comps include Gil Meche and Johnny Cueto, Jesse Litsch and Braden Looper, Matt Garza and Gavin Floyd (and Todd Wellemeyer, Armando Galarraga, and Vicente Padilla, for that matter), and three back-to-back southpaw pairings: Dana Eveland and Jo-Jo Reyes (sporting similar FB-SL-CH repertoires), Nate Robertson and Mark Hendrickson, and, best of all, Jeff Francis and Jamie Moyer, two soft-tossing lefties with only 18 years separating them.

I will have a follow-up piece on Friday with a methodology to rank pitchers across all classifications.

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With pitchers and catchers reporting to camp (and a third of the position players as of Monday), the Major League Baseball season can't be too far away. Seven weeks to be exact. About the same time between now and then as it was between now and Christmas. It's just a matter of whether you like to open your presents in late December or early April.

The first spring training games will take place on Wednesday, February 25. With the Dodgers relocating to Arizona, there are now 16 teams in the Grapefruit League and 14 in the Cactus League. The American League clubs are split evenly between Florida and Arizona while the National League has nine of its 16 franchises training on the east coast.

Round one of the World Baseball Classic opens in Tokyo on Thursday, March 5. There are four pools consisting of four teams each for a total of 16 participants. Pool A consists of China, Chinese Taipei, Japan, and Korea. Pool B is comprised of Australia, Cuba, Mexico (host), and South Africa. Pool C is made up of Canada (host), Italy, USA, and Venezuela. Pool D includes Dominican Republic, Netherlands, Panama, and Puerto Rico (host). The winners and runners-up will advance to round two with the survivors from Pool A and B squaring off at Petco Park and Pool C and D meeting up at Dolphin Stadium. The semi-finals and finals will take place on March 21-23 at Dodger Stadium. The tournament will be televised by MLB Network (16 games) and ESPN (23 games). The full schedule (with dates, times, and TV network) can be viewed here. (Note: Several players listed on the rosters have opted not to play.)

In the meantime, Baseball America is counting down to the college baseball season. (Hint: It takes place this week.) Aaron Fitt, the site's lead college writer, provides scouting reports on the top 25 teams in the country (complete with projected lineups and 2008 stats).

I'm looking forward to attending the opening series between Long Beach State and USC next weekend. The Trojans will play host on Friday and Sunday while the Dirtbags will host the Saturday game. USC (ranked 24th by Collegiate Baseball) features Grant Green, a preseason first team All-America shortstop who is projected to be a top five overall pick in the MLB draft in June.

Green impressed me when I saw him (and fellow freshman Robert Stock, whose status has slipped since being named Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2005) make his collegiate debut two years ago:

Green, Stock's freshman teammate, reminds me of Tulowitzki, the former Dirtbag who played 25 games for the Colorado Rockies in September. The 6-3, 180-pound shortstop has added about 15 pounds of muscle since being drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 14th round last June. He runs well, as evidenced by his 4.23 speed to first, a time that scouts would rate as a 55 or 60 for a RHB on their 20-80 scale.

After losing 11 players to the draft last year, Long Beach State is in the midst of a rebuilding campaign. Devin Lohman, who was selected in the 42nd round by the Rockies in 2007, will follow Danny Espinosa (WAS, 3rd round, 2008), Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby, and Chris Gomez (as well as a stint by Evan Longoria during his sophomore season in 2005 when Tulo missed 18 games with a hand injury), as the school's next shortstop. The sophomore hit a home run at cavernous Blair Field and made a couple of defensive gems in an intra-squad scrimmage on Saturday.

I am also hopeful of catching righthander Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 prospect in the country, at the MLB Urban Invitational in Compton next weekend. San Diego State is scheduled to play Bethune Cookman on Friday and Southern on Saturday. If Strasburg is going, I will be, too.

If you don't know much about Strasburg, the following excerpt from a Baseball America article will whet your appetite:

The Washington Nationals have the first pick in the 2009 draft. Strasburg, a junior righthander at San Diego State, is the odds-on favorite for the first choice. So just how does a pitcher go from obscurity to the top of the draft?

• By hitting 101 mph on a radar gun.

• By outdueling the first pitcher selected in last year's draft.

• By striking out 23 batters in a game.

• By being the first collegiate player selected to the U.S. Olympic team since professionals were put on the roster in 2000.

Strasburg did all that and more last year, making him The Next Big Thing. Everyone, it seems, is now on board.

College baseball this week. Spring training next week. World Baseball Classic next month. Opening Day the following month.

Bring 'em all on. I'm ready.

Meanwhile, if you're looking for some reading material, be aware that The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 is now shipping. The book includes projections and commentaries for all 30 teams and over 1,000 players, draft strategies and values, and key rookies for 2009. You can read the first page of an eight-page preview of the Dodgers that I wrote. The other 29 teams are covered by THT's staff writers and many of the best baseball bloggers on the Internet.

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After categorizing starting pitchers by strikeout and groundball rates yesterday, today's article is focused on relievers. Previous entries with supporting information as to the whys and wherefores of this study can be accessed at the following links: 2008 SP, 2007 SP, 2007 RP, 2006 SP and 2006 RP.

The universe includes strikeout and groundball data for every reliever in the majors (defined for this exercise as those with 30 or more innings who started less than one-third of the time). There were 231 pitchers who met these requirements in 2008. Among these qualifiers, the average K/BF rate was 19.68% and the average GB rate was 43.74%. By comparison, starters had a mean K/BF rates of 16.90% and GB% of 43.45%, respectively. While the groundball rates were virtually the same, the average strikeout rate among relievers was 2.78 percentage points higher or 16.4%.

The mean K and GB rates are highlighted in red in the graph below. These averages separate the starting pitchers into four quadrants. By placing pitchers in quadrants, one can easily distinguish those with above-average strikeout and groundball rates (referred herein as the northeast quadrant), above-average strikeout and below-average groundball rates (southeast quadrant), above-average groundball and below-average strikeout rates (northwest quadrant), and below-average groundball and strikeout rates (southwest quadrant).

The simple average and weighted average (by innings) ERA and RA are detailed in the table below.

The message is the same for relievers as it was in yesterday's table for starters:

• Pitchers with above-average K rates outperform those with below-average K rates.
• Pitchers with above-average GB rates outperform those with below-average GB rates.
• Pitchers who combine above-average K and GB rates outperform all others.

As with the starters, it is always fun to look at the outliers. Starting at the upper end of the graph, Roy Corcoran had the highest percentage of groundballs among all pitchers (starters or relievers). Moving clockwise, the other outliers consist of Scott Downs, Ramon Troncoso, Rafael Perez, Mariano Rivera, Takashi Saito, Brad Lidge, Jonathan Broxton, Octavio Dotel, Carlos Marmol, Grant Balfour, Juan Cruz, Alex Hinshaw, Troy Percival, Eddie Guardado, Brad Hennessey, Todd Jones, Horacio Ramirez, and Chad Bradford. Saito, Broxton, and Bradford also stood out in their respective quadrants the previous year.

Data and graph courtesy of David Appelman, FanGraphs.

Let's drill down and take a closer look at each of the quadrants. The NE, SE, and SW quadrants are listed by K/BF, while the pitchers in the NW quadrant are in order of GB%.

Lidge not only tops this elite group of relievers but is one of only two pitchers to exceed a 30% strikeout rate for three consecutive seasons. He was 48-for-48 in save situations (including the postseason) and led all relievers in Win Probability Added. For my money, Lidge was the best relief pitcher in baseball last year.

Saito is the other reliever who has whiffed at least 30% of the batters faced during the past three campaigns. He suffered a sprained ligament in his elbow last summer and was not tendered a contract by the Dodgers. The 39-year-old righthander signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox with a team option for 2010. Along with the newly acquired Ramon Ramirez and holdovers Jonathan Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen, Boston will have four members of the NE quadrant in its bullpen in 2009, tied for the most in baseball. Despite losing Saito, the Dodgers will also head to camp with four relievers from the NE quadrant: Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Troncoso, and Guillermo Mota, who was signed in January.

Rivera and Perez qualified for the 25-50 club for the second straight year. Matt Thornton and Joba Chamberlain, who split his season between the starting rotation and the bullpen, are also card-carrying members of the 25-50 organization. Joba will either hook up with Mo to form a "lights out" eighth and ninth inning tandem or join fellow NE quadrant starters A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia in the rotation. It's a nice "problem" for Yankees manager Joe Girardi to figure out this spring.

Balfour had the highest strikeout rate of any big league pitcher last year. Although the 31-year-old righthander got knocked around in October, he put up remarkable stats during the regular season (summarized by a 1.54 ERA and 0.89 WHIP). It will be interesting to see how the well-traveled and hard-throwing Balfour performs in 2009.

Cruz and Marmol are no strangers to the upper end of the southeast quadrant, placing third and second, respectively, in 2007. The strikeout artists swapped places in 2008. Cruz became a free agent after the season and remains unsigned days before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, primarily due to the fact that the acquiring team will be forced to part with a first-round draft pick as compensation for a Type A player. Marmol, who has struck out 210 batters while allowing only 81 hits in 156.2 IP over the past two seasons, is the favorite to succeed the departed Kerry Wood as the Cubs closer in 2009.

The NWQ is comprised of 11 relievers with groundball rates in excess of 60%, including Cla Meredith and Brandon League, both of whom have eclipsed the 70% mark in one of the past two seasons.

As measured by WPA, Downs (14th), Brad Ziegler (9th), and Bobby Jenks (5th) were the most successful relievers in this group. Ziegler posted a 3-0 record with a 1.06 ERA while saving 11 out of 13 opportunities for the Oakland A's even though he wasn't called up to the bigs until the last day of May. Jenks fell out of the NEQ for the first time as his K/BF has dropped from 29.76% in 2005 to 26.67% in 2006 to 22.49% in 2007 to 15.64% in 2008. The trend is not his friend.

I don't think there is a single reliever in the bottom half of this quadrant that I would sign with your money, much less mine. At the bottom of the heap is Todd Jones, who lost his role as closer to Fernando Rodney, a member of the SEQ, in July and thankfully announced his retirement in September. To his credit, Jones is 14th on the all-time list for career saves. I don't know if that says more about him or the validity of the save statistic.

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Strikeout and groundball rates have become my favorite way to evaluate pitchers. While I also pay close attention to walk rates, I am most interested in whether pitchers can miss bats and keep batted balls in the park.

The reasons are simple and straightforward: (1) strikeouts are the out of choice and (2) groundballs are preferred over flyballs and line drives. Except for the rare missed third strike, a strikeout always produces an out and no chance for runners to advance bases (other than a stolen base). Among batted ball types, infield flies are the least harmful, followed by groundballs, outfield flies, and line drives.

Thanks to the advancements in play-by-play data, we can even place a value on the run impact of each event. For example, according to information gathered from The Hardball Times, strikeouts have had a run impact of approximately -0.11, infield flies -0.09, groundballs 0.04, outfield flies 0.18, and line drives 0.39 per incident over the past few seasons.

Although groundballs generate more hits and errors than flyballs, their run impact is lower because the hits are usually limited to singles and an occasional double down the first or third base line, whereas balls in the air that turn into hits more often become doubles, triples, or home runs. By definition, groundball pitchers give up fewer flyballs and line drives. In addition, groundball rates fluctuate less than home run rates because park effects, weather, and other forms of randomness play a huge role when it comes to the outcome of long flyballs, especially among pitchers. Therefore, if you want to maintain a low home run rate, the best thing to do is to keep batted balls on the ground.

Based on the above information, it follows that just as pitchers with high strikeout rates would generally fare better than those with low rates, pitchers with high groundball rates would normally fare better than those with low rates. Furthermore, it also suggests that pitchers who combine higher strikeout and groundball rates will outperform those with lower rates.

With the foregoing in mind, I introduced the idea of categorizing pitchers by strikeout and groundball rates for the 2006 season in January 2007 (Part I: Starters/Part II: Relievers). I also generated this information for the 2007 season in March 2008 (Part I: Starters/Part II: Relievers) and will once again provide it for the 2008 campaign, beginning with starters today and relievers tomorrow.

Consistent with the methodology that I have used in the past, the universe of starters consists of all pitchers who completed 100 or more innings and started in at least 33 percent of their appearances. There were 135 pitchers who met these requirements in 2008. Among these qualifiers, the average K/BF rate was 16.90% and the average GB rate was 43.45%. The mean K and GB rates are highlighted in red in the graph below. These averages separate the starting pitchers into four quadrants.

By placing pitchers in quadrants, one can easily distinguish those with above-average strikeout and groundball rates (referred herein as the northeast quadrant), above-average strikeout and below-average groundball rates (southeast quadrant), above-average groundball and below-average strikeout rates (northwest quadrant), and below-average groundball and strikeout rates (southwest quadrant).

The simple average and weighted average (by innings) ERA and RA are detailed in the table below. Whether using simple or weighted, ERA or RA, the message is crystal clear:

• Pitchers with above-average K rates outperform those with below-average K rates.
• Pitchers with above-average GB rates outperform those with below-average GB rates.
• Pitchers who combine above-average K and GB rates outperform all others.

Not surprisingly, pitchers with the highest strikeout and groundball rates had the lowest average ERA, while those with the lowest K and GB rates had the highest average ERA. In the hybrid categories, pitchers with above-average strikeout and below-average groundball rates beat those with below-average K and above-average GB rates. The order of preference is the northeast quadrant, followed by the southeast, northwest, and southwest.

Looking at the outliers in the graph is one of the most interesting aspects of this study. Starting with the northeast quadrant and going clockwise, Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, and, to a lesser extent, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Chad Billingsley, A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Edinson Volquez, plus Tim Lincecum, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young, Jason Bergmann, Brian Burres, Livan Hernandez, Aaron Cook, Fausto Carmona, and Tim Hudson all stand out for their extreme (good or bad) strikeout and/or groundball rates. Is there anybody who wouldn't take the outliers in the northeast quadrant over the outliers in the southwest quadrant? Lowe (3.24), Webb (3.30), Jimenez (3.99), Halladay (2.78), Billingsley (3.14), Burnett (4.07), Sabathia (2.70), Volquez (3.21), and Lincecum (2.62) all had much lower ERAs than Bergmann (5.09) and Burres (6.04).

Data and graph courtesy of David Appelman, FanGraphs.

Let's take a closer look at the results. Pitchers in the northeast, southeast, and southwest quadrants are sorted by K/BF rates. Pitchers in the northwest quadrant are listed in the order of GB rates.

The two Cy Young award winners headline this year's northeast quadrant. Lincecum had the second-highest K/BF rate in the majors (trailing only Harden) while generating an above-average GB rate. Cliff Lee made the highly unusual leap from the dreaded southwest quadrant in 2006 (14.63%, 32.70%) and 2007 (14.89%, 35.28%) to the more tony northeast quadrant in one fell swoop, primarily owing to a harder fastball and improved movement that produced a career-best O-Swing%.

Burnett, Doug Davis, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Roy Oswalt, Sabathia, and Webb have inhabited the northeast quadrant in each of our studies covering the past three seasons. If asked, "Which one is not like the others?" I'm confident that we would all answer, "Doug Davis." The 33-year-old lefthander has been near the bottom of the NE rankings in all three campaigns, barely exceeding the hurdle in both metrics each time. Davis also had the highest walk rate of this otherwise elite group in 2006, 2007, and 2008. He is what he is, an ever-so-slightly, better-than-average starting pitcher who gives up his share of hits and walks while doing a reasonably good job at missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard.

There have been just nine cases in the past three seasons of pitchers combining a 20% K rate with a 50% GB rate. King Felix is the only pitcher to accomplish this feat all three years. He posted the same K rate in 2008 as in 2007, but his GB rate dropped from 60.83% to 52.14%. Nonetheless, his three-peat is impressive, especially when you consider that he won't turn 23 until after the 2009 season starts.

Burnett is a two-time member of the 20-50 club, coming up just short on the GB side of the equation in 2008. Halladay joined the ranks this year, whiffing at least 20% for the first time since 2001. Known as a groundball pitcher, Roy was part of the northwest quadrant the previous two seasons.

Potential breakout candidates and fantasy sleepers include Jorge de la Rosa, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Parra, and Andrew Miller. Besides above-average K and GB rankings, these pitchers share two things in common: all four youngsters are southpaws with a high walk rate.

I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.

Miller (6th) and Kershaw (7th) were selected back-to-back by the Tigers and Dodgers in the first round of the 2006 draft. Miller (University of North Carolina) was widely considered the top college pitcher and Kershaw (Highland Park HS, Dallas) the best high school hurler. Detroit traded Miller and Cameron Maybin (and four others) to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in December 2007, while Los Angeles has held on to Kershaw. Both lefties pitched an almost identical number of innings in the majors last season with the soon-to-be 21-year-old Kershaw getting the better of Miller, who turns 24 in May. Note that Clayton's K/BF and GB rates were also higher than Andrew's and his BB rate (11.06% to 11.38%) was slightly better as well.

             IP     H    R    ER  HR   BB   SO   ERA
Kershaw     107.7  109   51   51  11   52  100   4.26
Miller      107.3  120   78   70   7   56   89   5.87

Harden stands out as the only starting pitcher in the majors with a K/BF over 30%. Over the past three years, just one starter per season has achieved this status with Francisco Liriano (30.44% in 2006) and Erik Bedard (30.15% in 2007) preceding Harden in the 30-something club. Liriano and Bedard fell victim to injuries. Following in their footsteps wouldn't be something particularly new to Harden, now would it?

Kazmir has ranked second, first, and second in the southeast quadrant for three straight seasons although it is a bit disturbing to note that his GB rate fell more than 10 percentage points below his 2006 and 2007 levels. Josh Beckett dropped out of the northeast and into the southeast grouping for the first time while slightly topping his K rate from his outstanding summer in 2007 (23.60%).

Jake Peavy, Wandy Rodriguez, Gil Meche, and Ian Snell have been a member of the northeast or southeast quadrant for each of the past three seasons, while Ervin Santana, Javier Vazquez, Cole Hamels, Chris Young, Johan Santana, Ted Lilly, Oliver Perez, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Ben Sheets, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Justin Verlander have been firmly ensconced in the SE quadrant for three years running.

The northwest quadrant always produces a mixed bag of pitchers. Opposite of those in the SE, hurlers in the NW succeed by inducing grounders and keeping the ball in the park, whereas their counterparts thrive on strikeouts.

Carmona tops the list for the second consecutive year. Although Fausto's GB rate exceeded the rarefied 60% mark once again, his K rate fell off the cliff (from a reasonable 15.59% in 2007 when he finished fourth in the AL CYA voting to a dangerously low 10.56% in 2008). Worse yet, his K/BB rate plummeted from 2.25 to 0.83. The good news for Indians fans is that Carmona just turned 25 in December so he still has time to get his mojo back.

Paul Maholm, Carlos Zambrano, Odalis Perez (yes, Odalis Perez), Adam Wainwright, and Armando Galarraga (whose K and GB rates are essentially league average) are within hailing distance of meeting the minimum standards of the NE quadrant. With a solid K rate and a top ten GB%, the 26-year-old Maholm deserves attention as a pitcher coming into his own. Zambrano fell out of the NE for the first time since this study began, pitching to contact more often than before while improving his walk rate to a level not seen since his stellar season in 2004. Meanwhile, don't bet on Galarraga to improve his W-L record or ERA as his BABIP of .247 was unsustainably low.

At the other end of the spectrum, Livan Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick aren't long for the majors with K rates below 10%. A free agent, Hernandez may find it difficult to convince an employer to allow him to wear a big league uniform in 2009, even at the minimum salary.

Repeating my comments from each of the past two series, "[The southwest] is the quadrant that you want to avoid. It is inhabited by some of the worst starters in the game. If you fail to miss bats and don't keep the ball on the ground when it is put into play, you are going to run into trouble." The only way to survive in this quadrant is to put up as close to league-average K and/or GB rates as possible (see Brandon Backe, Vicente Padilla, Todd Wellemeyer, Matt Garza, Gavin Floyd, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Millwood, and Andy Sonnanstine) or to throw strikes, maintain a low walk rate, and duck when the ball is put into play. However, all of these types of pitchers live on the edge with very little margin for error.

As I am wont to say, "When it comes to evaluating pitchers, I would rather know their strikeout and groundball rates than their ERA. Throw in walk rates and you have almost everything you need to know about a pitcher. Focusing on these components gives one a much more comprehensive understanding of a pitcher's upside and downside than looking at a single metric such as ERA."

Tomorrow: Categorizing Relievers by Strikeout and Groundball Rates.

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"Just a puppet on a lonely string
Oh who would ever want to be king?"

- Coldplay, Viva La Vida

Jon Heyman has done it again. He broke another story on Friday when reporting that Jason Varitek had "reached a two-year agreement with the Red Sox."

In typical Heyman fashion, he wanted to make sure that everyone knew that "SI.com was the first to report that Varitek had an agreement with Boston." To that, I say "big deal." OK, maybe I didn't use the word "deal." I mean, this doesn't go down as some sort of exclusive or investigative reporting.

While the signing won't be officially announced until Varitek completes his physical, the Red Sox had placed a Friday deadline on an official proposal that was delivered via registered mail to him and agent Scott Boras on January 23. In other words, it was no secret that something was going to happen that day. Either Varitek was going to accept or reject Boston's offer.

If you're wondering how Heyman got wind of the news before any of the Boston beat writers or columnists, be aware that he had Mark Teixeira going to the Yankees before anyone else and, according to his biography, also "broke the story of Barry Bonds going to the Giants in 1992...Alex Rodriguez going to the Yankees in 2004, A-Rod opting out of his $252-million contract in 2007 and Manny Ramirez going to the Dodgers in 2008."

Varitek. Teixeira. Manny. A-Rod 2x. Bonds, vintage 1992. Do you notice anything in common? Yes, all of these players are or were represented by Boras at the time of their signings. It is plainly obvious that Heyman, known among fellow writers as scottboras.com, is getting fed such stories by Scott himself, which is fine and dandy except there is more going on here than meets the eye.

You see, Boras throws Heyman a bone on a Tek or Tex signing but also uses him to spread rumors about the level of interest and terms in ongoing free agent negotiations to create a false sense of demand. Teams that fall for this trick wind up competing against themselves, which is exactly what Boras desires.

While Boras is no fool, Heyman is a tool for the Scott Boras Corporation. Boras knows how to game the system to get the best deals for his clients and will gladly use Heyman as long as the latter plays along or until the market realizes what is going on. As it stands now, it's almost as if Heyman, who is no stranger to the Boras suites during the winter meetings, is on the SBC payroll.

You can see these shenanigans at work in Heyman's recent stories about a few other Boras clients, including Joe Crede, Oliver Perez, and Derek Lowe. But these are relatively innocent in comparison to following the Boras, Heyman & Co. saga as it relates to Manny.

Last August, I wrote an article entitled "Remember This Name," whereby I opened with the following paragraph:

Let me introduce you to the No. 1 pick in the 2011 amateur draft . . . Bryce Harper. I know, that particular draft won't take place for three more years. As such, how in the world could I make this type of a prediction now? Well, if you watched the 15-year-old, lefthanded-hitting catcher take batting practice, infield, and two plate appearances on Tuesday at the Area Code Games, as I did, then I have no doubt that you would be as enthusiastic about this phenom as I am.

Harper made some more noise earlier this month at the third annual International Power Showcase High School Home Run Derby at St. Petersburg's Tropicana Field. Although Harper didn't win the contest, according to Baseball America's Nathan Rode, the tenth grader "played the part of Josh Hamilton" while Christian Walker, a third baseman from Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic High in Norristown, Pennsylvania "served the role of Justin Morneau."

Greg Rybarczyk, who maintains the indispensable site Hit Tracker Online, which logs and calculates the trajectory of every major league home run, covered Harper's exploits at the Home Run Derby contest:

Over the next 60 seconds, Harper unleashed an awe-inspiring series of hits to areas of Tropicana Field few major leaguers have reached:

• 460 feet to the top edge of the Jumbotron in right field; 119 mph off the bat
• 484 feet to the back wall of the stadium, 15 feet above the Jumbotron; 122 mph
• 485 feet to the back wall, just below the orange Bright House “target” sign; 123 mph
• 405 feet on a blistering line drive around the RF pole; 118 mph
• 502 feet to the back wall, in the vicinity of the first “A” in the Tropicana Field sign, 20 feet above the top of the Jumbotron; 124.5 mph
• 477 feet to right-center field, halfway up and a few feet to the left of the Jumbotron; 119 mph.

Harper cranked six home runs with a metal bat, averaging 469 feet with an exit velocity of 121 mph. Photographer Jeff Horton captured Harper's longest homer below (with Rybarcyzk providing location and distance for each of his dozen home runs).

Notice the white ball toward the top, left-center of the photo. It traveled 502 feet, the longest of the event and on record at Tropicana. According to Rybarczyk, the ball would have exited Yankee Stadium. Greg told Baseball America's Rode, "It was hit at precisely the right direction to get just to the left of the upper deck in Yankee Stadium, but to the right of the bleachers and back bleacher wall. It would have cleared the back wall of Yankee Stadium with probably about 15 to 20 feet to spare."

Rode added, "Another one of his shots traveled 484 feet and at its angle would have landed in the right field Upper Deck of Fenway Park, which has never been done."

Harper hit 12 home runs overall — enough to make the top five — but slugged only one in the final round. Rybarczyk said the 16-year-old high school sophomore "looked worn out, understandably so since he had the misfortune to have hit 67th out of 69 batters, and had only a few minutes to recover before the finals."

Walker won the title by going yard nine times in the final round. Ryan Gunhouse (Clear Creek HS, League City, Texas), Randal Grichuk (Lamar Consolidated HS, Rosenburg, Texas), and Dante Bichette (Orangewood Christian, Maitland, Florida) joined Harper (Las Vegas HS, Las Vegas, Nevada) in the finals. Bichette, the son of the former Colorado Rockies slugger, is a sophomore as well.

The following video of Harper is worth watching if you want to see him in action at the International Power Showcase.

You can learn more about Harper at his player profile on the Power Showcase site. If nothing else, remember this name.

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The Hardball Times has been at the forefront of publishing batted ball information on its website and in its Baseball Annuals for the past five years. Led by Dave Studeman, THT has written several articles on this subject, including two recent studies on BABIP by co-authors Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix and Derek Carty.

BABIP, of course, stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. Some analysts prefer BA/BIP, others BABiP. No matter how the acronym is presented, Batting Average on Balls in Play measures exactly what it says: the batting average on all batted balls other than home runs. The formula is calculated as (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR) or (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)+SF.

Batting Average on Balls in Play is basically the opposite of Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) or, perhaps more precisely, 1-DER. BABIP is used for batters whereas DER is used for team defense. Depending on one's perspective, either BABIP or DER can be employed when it comes to pitchers.

In a study on Defense Independent Pitching Stats (DIPS) eight years ago (has it really been that long?), Voros McCracken determined that Batting Average on Balls in Play was primarily a function of a pitcher's defense, ballpark and luck, rather than an actual skill. Here is McCracken's original conclusion in his own words: "There is little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play."

Over the ensuing years, several researchers and analysts have modified and improved the thinking behind DIPS as more information — particularly batted ball data — has become available. But the basic fact remains: Pitchers have less control over BABIP than hitters.

According to Carty, "Most pitchers regress toward the league average BABIP of around .300 or .305. Very few pitchers can repeatedly do better or worse than this, so we say that pitchers have very little control over BABIP. Hitters, on the other hand, can have a substantial amount of control over BABIP. Ichiro Suzuki, for example, has a .356 career BABIP. Hitters do not regress toward league average, rather, they each regress toward their own, unique number."

Carty then asks, "What is that number?" He proceeds to evaluate a number of BABIP estimators to find out which ones do the best "job of predicting the following year's BABIP." You can read about his process and results here.

I'm a pattern-recognition type and noticed a few common threads when thumbing through the batted ball stats in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual during the offseason. While some of my observations are included in one way or another in THT studies, I believe we can achieve even more accuracy with a few more tweaks here and there.

OK, for some background information . . .

According to THT, the MLB average groundball out rate was 74 percent in 2007 and 2008. By comparison, the MLB average flyball out rate was 83 percent in 2007 and 84 percent in 2008. Another way of looking at those percentages is to say that batters hit about .260 on groundballs and .160-.170 on outfield flyballs (excluding home runs).

The line drive out rate was 29 percent in 2008, meaning batters hit roughly .710 on these batted balls. The hit rate on infield flies is nearly non-existent as pop-ups are converted into outs 99 percent of the time.

When it comes to batting average, line drives are king, followed by groundballs, outfield flyballs, and infield flies. Put it all together and National and American League teams hit .298 and .302, respectively, on balls in play in 2008. NL and AL clubs had BABIP of .301 and .305 in 2007.

However, when it comes to production, flyballs are more valuable than groundballs. To wit, including home runs, line drives produced .40 runs in 2007 and .39 in 2008, while the average outfield flyball yielded .18 runs in 2007 and 2008. Meanwhile, the average groundball generated .05 runs per event in 2007 and .04 in 2008.

From the perspective of pitchers, all else being equal, groundball types tend to give up more hits but fewer runs than flyball types. Groundball pitchers generally allow more unearned runs, as I observed in February 2006, due to the greater frequency of errors on balls hit on the ground than in the air.

Nonetheless, I wanted to focus on the average groundball out rate as a variable impacting BABIP. I compiled a list of outliers (high and low) for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The minimum number of plate appearances required for inclusion was 300. THT listed players by team and did not provide combined results for players who performed for two clubs. For this exercise, I simply took a weighted-average of the groundball out rate based on plate appearances as opposed to actual batted balls. The differences between the two should be minor.

2007 Highest Groundball Out Rates

Jack Cust               86
Adam Lind               85
Bobby Crosby            84
Jason Giambi            84
Paul Lo Duca            84
Dave Ross               84
Kevin Millar            83
Brian Schneider         83
Rich Aurilia            82
Adam Dunn               82
Prince Fielder          82
Josh Fields             82
Kenjii Johjima          82
Dioner Navarro          82
Gregg Zaun              82
Jermaine Dye            81
Ryan Howard             81
Tadahito Iguchi         81
Luke Scott              81
Richie Sexson           81
Marcus Giles            80
Alex Gonzalez           80
Khalil Greene           80
Geoff Jenkins           80                            
Paul Konerko            80                           
Yorvit Torrealba        80   

Most of these hitters are bigger, slower with older skill types. Not a speedster on the list. Ten of the 26 players hit lefthanded and one (Dioner Navarro) bats both. More than 25 percent are catchers. Only five play middle infield or center field.

Marcus Giles only hit .275 on balls in play in 2007 after producing BABIP of .337-.365 from 2003-2005. Was his high out/low success rate on groundballs in 2007 the reason he hit so poorly on balls in play or was the reason he hit so poorly on balls due to not hitting the ball as hard as once before? Note that Giles didn't play in the majors in 2008.

2008 Highest Groundball Out Rates

Jim Edmonds             85 (84 CHC/89 SD)
Corey Patterson         85
Jim Thome               85
Brandon Boggs           83
Jose Castillo           83
Carlos Delgado          83
Jack Hannahan           83
Eric Hinske             83
Craig Counsell          82
Todd Helton             82
Ryan Howard             82
Brian Schneider         82
Nick Swisher            82
Lyle Overbay            81
Alfonso Soriano         81
Omar Vizquel            81
Adrian Beltre           80
Ken Griffey Jr.         80 (81 CWS/80 CIN)
Mike Jacobs             80
Kenjii Johjima          80
Carlos Ruiz             80
Jose Vidro              80

Once again, there are a number of bigger, slower, and/or older types. The list is comprised almost exclusively with catchers and corner position players. Thirteen of the 22 hitters bat lefthanded and four are switch-hitters. Ryan Howard, Kenjii Johjima, Brian Schneider showed up on both lists of high groundball out rates.

Alfonso Soriano and Corey Patterson are the only two players wi