After watching my nephew Brett make his PGA Tour debut in the Northern Trust Open at Riviera Country Club last Thursday, my wife and I headed to Palm Desert to hang out for a couple of days while our house was being fumigated for termites.

I woke up on Friday morning, checked my emails, and read the following news in Lee Sinins' daily ATM Report.

The Cubs re-signed P Carlos Marmol to a 1 year, $2.125 million contract, to avoid salary arbitration.

YEAR AGE RSAA  ERA     G  GS   IP    SO   SO/9 BR/9   W   L   SV  NW  NL  TEAM
2007 24   26   1.43   59   0   69.1   96 12.46 10.38   5   1   1   5   1  Cubs         
2008 25   17   2.68   82   0   87.1  114 11.75  8.97   2   4   7   4   2  Cubs         
2009 26    9   3.41   79   0   74     93 11.31 14.59   2   4  15   4   2  Cubs         
CAREER    40   3.42  239  13  307.2  362 10.59 12.34  14  16  23  18  12  
LG AVG     0   4.35           307.2  235  6.88 12.90  17  17

I glanced at Marmol's three-year stat line and noticed that he struck out 11.31 batters per nine innings last season. Not too shabby, I thought. I had been under the impression that he didn't have a particularly good year. Despite his stellar SO/9 rate (or more commonly referred to as K/9), Marmol did indeed struggle as noted in the column next to it on the right. BR/9 stands for "base runners per 9," which is essentially WHIP expressed over nine innings rather than one (although HBP are included in the former and not the latter).

In Marmol's case, hit by pitch is not a trivial statistic. He hit 12 batters last season, good bad enough to rank third in the majors. The 28-year-old righthander, in fact, was the only reliever to reach double digits in this category.

A BR/9 of 14.59 means Marmol allowed 1.62 base runners per inning. That's a horrific rate for any pitcher, much less a closer/setup man. Marmol got there in a strange manner. Carlos allowed 43 hits, 65 walks, and 12 hit batters in 74 innings.

Nolan Ryan, one of the most famous high walks/low hits pitchers of all time, only had two seasons when he allowed more walks than hits. Unlike Marmol, Ryan never approached a BB/H ratio of 1.5:1. His worst ratio was 1.13 in 1970 when he was a 23-year-old part-time starter for the New York Mets. Marmol's BB/H ratio was 1.51 last year. Ryan's career ratio was 0.71. Marmol's ratio over his first four seasons? A stunning 1.03.

Among pitchers with 50 or more games, Marmol had the second-best batting average against (.171 vs. .170 for Jonathan Broxton) and the third-best HR/9 (0.24) and HR/TBF (0.60%) even though he is an extreme flyball pitcher. However, Marmol also had the worst BB/9 (7.91), BB/TBF (19.40%), HBP/9 (0.16), and HBP/TBF (3.58%).

You might say that Marmol missed the strike zone and a lot of bats. If so, you would be right. He struck out, walked, or hit a batter more than half the time! Yup, Carlos had a combined 170 SO, BB, and HBP while facing 335 batters in 2009.

What should we make of Marmol? His K/9, BAA, and HR/9 suggest he is one of the best relievers in the game. On the other hand, his BB and HBP rates indicate that he is a wild man and far from a polished product. Like my house, you can throw a tent over Marmol. While I wouldn't want to exterminate him if I were Jim Hendry or Lou Piniella, I might be inclined to sell tickets to his circus act if I were new Cubs' owner Tom Ricketts.

By the way, Brett and former major winners Padraig Harrington, Davis Love III, Corey Pavin, Vijay Singh, and Mike Weir all missed the cut last week as Steve Stricker won his fourth tournament in less than a year to pass Phil Mickelson as the No. 2 player in the World Golf Rankings.

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I introduced Graphing the Hitters earlier this month. The focus was on Productivity, defined as OBP and SLG.

In this week's edition of Graphing the Hitters, I'm going to concentrate on Plate Discipline. The graph below plots walk rate (BB/PA) on the x-axis and strikeout rate (SO/PA) on the y-axis for every qualified batter in 2009. The intersection of the MLB averages for BB% (8.88%) and SO% (17.96%) created quadrants that classify players as better-than-average in both (lower right), worse-than-average in both (upper left), or better-than-average in one and worse-than-average in the other (lower left and upper right).

Unlike Fangraphs, I believe the denominator for strikeout percentage should be plate appearances (rather than at-bats). For whatever reason, Fangraphs defines walk percentage as BB/PA but strikeout percentage as SO/AB. As a result, while the raw numbers were downloaded from Fangraphs, the BB% and SO% were calculated separately.

Note: You can download a spreadsheet containing the PA, BB, SO, BB%, and SO% of the 155 hitters here. This information can also be used to locate the 134 players not labeled in the graph below.

My first question following the Productivity graph was "Is Albert Pujols any good?" Well, after looking at the Plate Discipline graph, I've got to ask the same question once again. This time around, I'm going to shout out my question.

OK, I think I've made my point now. Not that it was really necessary. Everybody already knows that Pujols is better than good. I mean, this guy is great. In fact, he is on pace to become one of the greatest hitters of all time and perhaps the best or second-best righthanded hitter ever.

Pujols has played nine seasons in the major leagues. He has ranked in the top ten in batting average, slugging average, on-base plus slugging, total bases, and times on base every year. What is less known is that Albert has improved his walk rate every single season while reducing his strikeout rate by a third since his rookie campaign in 2001.

In 2009, Pujols had the sixth-highest BB% (16.43%) and the ninth-lowest SO% (9.14%). That is a remarkable combination. He was the only player in the top 50 in walk rate with a strikeout rate below 10.0%. You have to go all the way down to No. 57 in the walk rankings to find someone with a lower strikeout percentage (Dustin Pedroia). The Red Sox second baseman had the lowest SO% (6.30%) in the majors.

Pujols and Pedroia are two of only 13 qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts.

Adrian Gonzalez led MLB in walk rate and walks (119) last year. He was one of five first basemen with more walks than strikeouts. Three second basemen, three catchers, one shortstop, and one third baseman also accomplished this feat, including three projected starters for the Boston Red Sox in 2010 (Marco Scutaro, Victor Martinez, and Pedroia). The St. Louis Cardinals are the only other team with more than one representative (Pujols and Yadier Molina).

At the other end of the spectrum, Yadier's older brother, Bengie Molina, had the lowest BB% (2.50%) in baseball. Bengie struck out in 13.08% of his plate appearances, which means he whiffed more than 5x as often as he walked.

Mark Reynolds had the highest SO% (33.69%). He set a single-season record with 223 strikeouts in 2009. The 26-year-old third baseman has played three seasons in the majors and owns the top two strikeout totals in the game's history. His SO and BB rates have increased each year. The good news is that his BB% has risen 29.2% while his SO% has advanced just 8.0% since his rookie campaign in 2007.

Russell Branyan (29.50%), Jack Cust (30.23%), Adam Dunn (26.50%), Ryan Howard (26.46%), Brandon Inge (26.69%), and Carlos Pena (28.60%) stand out for their high strikeout rates. However, Inge was the only one with a walk rate (8.48%) below the league average.

Lastly, there were 13 qualified hitters with walk rates over 15%. Other than Pujols, every player in this baker's dozen bats lefthanded or both. Therefore, I believe it is safe to say that the three-time MVP is truly unique. As the graphs have shown, Pujols is the most disciplined and productive hitter in the game today.

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The big news on Monday was the admission from Mark McGwire that he used steroids on and off for a decade, including the 1998 season when he slugged 70 home runs and broke the then single-season record of 61 by Roger Maris in 1961.

Everybody seems to have his or her take on the subject (check the sidebar for news, analysis, video, and audio). As a general rule, we don't feel the need to weigh in with our opinions on such matters. But, in this case, I have a few thoughts that I'd like to share.

My first is a tongue-in-cheek question. Based on the photo at left, which one of us do you suppose was on steroids when this photo was taken in October 1998? It wasn't I. But, then again, I never had the God-given talent and hand-eye coordination that he spoke about yesterday. Nevertheless, how many people other than Kerry Robinson can say they pinch hit for Big Mac?

On a more serious note, McGwire, in a statement prior to his interview with Bob Costas on MLB Network, said: "I used steroids during my playing career and I apologize. I remember trying steroids very briefly in the 1989/1990 off season and then after I was injured in 1993, I used steroids again. I used them on occasion throughout the '90s, including during the 1998 season. I wish I had never touched steroids. It was foolish and it was a mistake. I truly apologize. Looking back, I wish I had never played during the steroid era."

McGwire finally admitted that he used steroids. Great, it's over and all is forgiven, right? Apparently not. You see, the same critics who begged him to come clean are now upset that he didn't say something like the following: "By taking steroids, I hit 15 to 20 more home runs per season than I would have otherwise. I never would have broken the single-season record nor hit 500 for my career had I not been juiced."

I mean, get real folks. The truth of the matter is that nobody really knows for certain how much steroids helped, if at all. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn't. The whole subject is nothing more than just speculation at this point. It is what it is.

Look, I'm not naive. Steroids added muscles and bulk to McGwire's frame. The added strength probably allowed McGwire to hit a baseball farther. Hitting a baseball farther meant McGwire's long fly balls were more likely to clear outfield walls. Ergo, steroids probably resulted in McGwire slugging more home runs than he would have hit otherwise. Do we really need Mark to spell that out for us in that manner?

I'm also not here to apologize for McGwire. But goodness gracious. The guy admitted that he used steroids. He apologized. He said it was a mistake. He apologized again (and again). But, as Joe Posnanski tweeted: "People SAY they're forgiving but apologies never seem to go far enough for them." Or, as Rob Neyer noted of Big Mac's accusers: "Before Admission: 'I won't vote for McGwire until he admits it.' After: 'I won't vote for McGwire because he didn't admit it RIGHT.' Sheesh."

Rob, in fact, has had the single-greatest take on the record books for a long time: "In the vain hope of forestalling a ridiculous discussion, may I mention (again) that 'record books' simply 'record' what happened on field?" As it relates to the steroids era, McGwire (and others) hit those home runs and the record books simply recorded them. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Barry Bonds hit more home runs in a MLB single season and career than anybody else. That is a fact. It doesn't mean that you have to accept that Bonds is the greatest home-run hitter of all time. A judgment like that is subjective.

Babe Ruth held the single-season and career record for decades. However, he never competed against black players. Maris broke his single-season record in an expansion year when the American League diluted itself by adding two new teams. It took Hank Aaron 2,000 additional plate appearances to break Ruth's lifetime record. McGwire and Bonds broke home-run records during the steroids era.

Travel conditions have changed over the years. The same thing goes for equipment. Training and nutrition have improved. Ballpark dimensions have never been universal. Games are played in various cities with different altitudes, weather, and wind patterns. Strike zones and the height of the mound have been altered to fit the times. Day games. Night games. Doubleheaders. No doubleheaders. Designated hitters. Four-man rotations. Five-man rotations. Bullpen usage. Left-handed relief specialists.

The game of baseball has evolved over the past century-and-a-half. Some might think for the better. Some might think for the worse. Color barriers. Betting scandals. Spitballs. Expansion. Free agents. Corked bats. Amphetamines. Cocaine. Steroids.

OK, that was more than a few thoughts. But I just couldn't sit back and take the lectures any longer. If these gatekeepers are going to block McGwire and Bonds and Roger Clemens (and others) from the Hall of Fame for partaking in steroids, are they now going to kick out previously enshrined players who used amphetamines, the performance-enhancing drugs of the late 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s? There's no need to mention names here but c'mon. These greenies were readily available in all locker rooms and players could reach into a jar or bowl and take a handful of these uppers before, during, or after a game, apparently endorsed by management and ownership alike.

Let's hear it from the level-headed Rob Neyer on the subject of the steroids era and the Hall of Fame:

It's not at all clear that McGwire will someday be elected to the Hall of Fame. On the other hand, it's fairly clear that the Hall of Fame will not be much of a Hall of Fame if, 20 years from now, many of the best players of the 1990s have been left out. It's fairly clear that someone will eventually realize that the players of the 1990s were a product of their times. And once someone realizes Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens belong in the Hall of Fame, it won't be easy to maintain the position that Mark McGwire does not belong.

Other than perhaps trying to minimize the effects of steroids (including emphasizing the "low dosage," which was unnecessary), most everything else McGwire said seemed not only reasonable but genuine to me. I hope we can get past the self righteousness and, with new regulations and testing in place, move on to the post-steroids era.

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Last Wednesday was a big day for Bert Blyleven and me. Blyleven was named on 74.2% of the 539 ballots cast, a gain of 62 votes and 11.5 percentage points. Within 0.8% of the 75% threshold, Rik Aalbert is now on the cusp of being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The day was made all the more memorable for me when Bert and Peter Gammons mentioned my name on the MLB Network. I was watching the Hall of Fame Class of 2010 live with my son Joe when Blyleven thanked me for my efforts shortly after the results were announced. It was also a nice surprise when Gammons, who had cited my work in his MLB.com article that morning, gave me a shout out later in the segment.

As much fun as it was for me personally, I think Blyleven's surge in the Hall of Fame voting and likelihood of getting elected next year is an even bigger day for the sabermetric movement. You might say, "That's one small step for a sabermetrician, one giant leap for sabermetrics."

While I took up the cause over six years ago to drum up support for a player whose candidacy had been grossly overlooked to that point, I was also motivated to move the discussion for awards and honors from the basic hitting/pitching stats and the "I saw him play and I know a Hall of Famer when I see one" to a more comprehensive and objective approach. With the help of others, I am confident that we are well on our way. We're not finished by any means, but there's no looking back either.

Bill James is the conductor of the sabermetric train, one that has been growing in numbers and gaining influence since he started to self-publish the Baseball Abstracts in 1977. Rob Neyer, who began his career working for James, joined ESPNet SportsZone in 1996 and was perhaps the first baseball writer to post sabermetric-oriented articles on a near-daily basis. The creation of Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference.com, The Baseball Think Factory, The Hardball Times, Baseball Analysts, Fangraphs, Beyond the Box Score, Inside the Book, and other sites has made stats (both basic and advanced) more accessible than ever and generated an onslaught of sabermetric research, studies, and analysis that most of us now take for granted.

If not for the Internet, where would we be? I know the Internet has allowed me to have a voice that wouldn't be possible otherwise. It gave me the opportunity to form the predecessor to Baseball Analysts in 2003, review the Baseball Abstracts in 2004, interview Bert later that year, and meet in person and become friends with Bill and Rob (and countless other writers, analysts, and front office executives, many of whom I now correspond with on a regular basis).

In the spirit of sharing the "fame," I would like to link to the MLB Network video when Blyleven responded to a question posed by Gammons:

Peter Gammons: Bert, do you think the work of some of the guys that have been for you the past five years has really helped your case and helped players around the game that are now active understand exactly what you did as a pitcher?

Bert Blyleven: I think so. You know, a guy, Rich Lederer, out of California...Long Beach, California, with BaseballAnalysts.com, I think has really put up now...You saw what happened this year with [Zack] Greinke and Tim Lincecum winning the Cy Young Awards, not leading their leagues in wins, I think, you know, just shows that there’s more behind just wins, and that’s what Rich has really kind of brought out. In the 70’s and 80’s when I pitched, that you can’t always go off of wins. You have to go off of performance and if you kept your club in the game. So yeah, I mean, I’m very, very proud to say that Rich has been in my corner, as a lot of people have.

While I don't have a link to the closing comments when Gammons mentioned me as part of his summation of the day's events, I was able to transcribe his words:

I thought Bert Blyleven's comments were terrific. He thoroughly understands the process now and I think the light that has been shone on him now has actually made people appreciate how good he was even more, and he knows he's going in. I think the next couple of years will do the same for Alomar and Larkin. I think the fact that people care so much about this now...Rich Lederer has campaigned for Blyleven we've understood. I think we'll see the same thing for Alomar and the same thing for Larkin. I just wonder if sabermetrics had been great 10-15 years ago when Ted Simmons didn't even get 4% of the vote and was only on the ballot one time whether Ted Simmons wouldn't now be a Hall of Famer?

Amen to that, Peter.

In Seven Earn Gammons' Hall Vote, Peter wrote the following with respect to Blyleven:

Blyleven

When one thinks about his run support and career 3.31 ERA, the 13 wins he needed for 300 and first-ballot candidacy seem slight. Hats off to Rich Lederer and others who have sponsored his cause. Think about the fact that his 15 1-0 wins are the most in the last 50 years, and he had more career shutouts than the American League has had the past 18 seasons.

After the results were announced, Rob Neyer put up a "Hall adds one ... but not the one we thought" post on his Sweet Spot blog, which included this excerpt:

Also falling just short -- just five votes short -- was Bert Blyleven, in his 13th try. Consider the progress that he's made, though. In his first three tries, he couldn't clear 20 percent. Five years ago, he cleared 50 percent for the first time. And now he's at 74.2 percent, and will almost certainly join Alomar on the podium next year. And when he's up there, I suspect that Blyleven will have a word of thanks for Rich Lederer.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times called Wednesday afternoon and interviewed me for an article that was in the newspaper's print edition the next day.

Bert Blyleven gets closer to the Hall of Fame with an assist

Former pitcher falls five votes short of election to Cooperstown after a campaign by a fan. Andre Dawson is elected.

By Bill Shaikin
January 7, 2010

Bert Blyleven did not get elected to the Hall of Fame on Wednesday. He wanted to thank a few people anyway.

He thanked Harmon Killebrew and Brooks Robinson for their encouragement and support. He thanked Rich Lederer too.

"That was pretty cool," Lederer said.

Killebrew and Robinson are Hall of Fame members. Lederer is an investment advisor in Long Beach.

"I'm very proud to say Rich has been in my corner," Blyleven told MLB Network.

Andre Dawson was the only player elected Wednesday. Blyleven fell five votes short, so close that he might well be thanking Lederer in an induction ceremony next year.

This is about more than a fan on a mission, armed with arguments of all sorts, out to get his man into Cooperstown. This is about concurrent advancements in statistics and technology, enabling fans to share their own methods of evaluating players and engage in a national discussion.

"If not for the Internet," Lederer said, "I wouldn't even have a voice."

Lederer, 54, grew up in baseball. His father, George, covered the Dodgers for the Long Beach Press-Telegram from 1958 to 1968, then worked for the Angels as a publicist.

Lederer made finance his career, but he launched a blog (baseballanalysts.com) in 2003, using statistics old and new to press the case for Blyleven.

No Cy Young awards? Two All-Star game selections? Fewer wins than Tommy John?

Lederer has rebuttals for all those arguments and more on his blog, focusing in part on this question: Just how important are wins anyway?

"If wins lead to the Cy Young Award, and the Cy Young Award leads to the Hall of Fame," Lederer said, "it seems like we're double- and triple-counting the wrong things."

It is unfair, he argues, to dismiss Blyleven because he won 20 games once in a 22-year career. We might not have considered run support, defensive support and such new metrics as "runs saved above average" during his career, but we can now.

Blyleven pointed to this year's Cy Young Award voting. Zack Greinke won in the American League, with 16 victories. Tim Lincecum won in the National League, with 15.

"That shows there's more than just wins," Blyleven said. "That's what Rich has brought out. You can't always go off wins. You have to go off performance."

That's a fair point. So how about a counterpoint: If a player needs a campaign manager, is he truly worthy of the Hall of Fame?

"I realize the inner-circle Hall of Famers are no-brainer-type guys," Lederer said. "I think that is a very select group. I think there are a lot of deserving players whose record should be more closely scrutinized."

By harnessing the power of the Internet and the growing community of baseball bloggers, Lederer and friends have linked merrily, enabling his pro-Blyleven arguments to reach the voters.

And, we should add, with enormous success.

In 1999, Blyleven got 14.1% of the vote. He received 74.2% this year, without throwing a pitch in the interim. No player has ever gotten so close to Cooperstown without eventually getting in.

"It's one small step for me," Lederer said. "I think the bigger story is that people like myself, who aren't writers or voters, can have a say in how these players are viewed and perhaps help their candidacy along."

Several other writers, including MLB.com's Kelly Thesier, SI.com's Joe Lemire, and a certain pitcher-turned-writer over at NBC Sports, highlighted my efforts in raising the awareness of Blyleven's Hall of Fame credentials. Former guest columnists Chad Finn and Jonah Keri reached out as well. And even the SunSentinel's Dave Hyde mentioned me in conjunction with Tim Raines.

Blyleven (and Alomar next), then Larkin, Raines, Alan Trammell, and maybe, just maybe Peter Gammons and I will get our wish on Ted Simmons, and many of us on Ron Santo, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and ...

The Battle Cry of the Sabermetric Revolution marches on.

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Well, the results of the Hall of Fame balloting were revealed on Wednesday, and it appears as if Bert will be Cooperstown bound Blyleven (as in 2011). The best eligible player not in the Hall received 400 votes, good for 74.2% of the 539 ballots cast. He missed out by 0.8% of the 75% threshold needed for induction.

I first learned that Blyleven fell five votes short of election in an email from Bert minutes before Jeff Idelson, president of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, announced in "one of the closest votes in history" that Andre Dawson would join Veterans Committee selections Whitey Herzog and Doug Harvey as the Hall of Fame class of 2010 on July 25 in Cooperstown, New York.

From:      Blyleven Bert
Subject:   Re: One More Update
Date:      January 6, 2010 11:00:50 AM PST
To:        Lederer Richard
Reply-To:  Blyleven Bert  

Missed by 5 votes

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

In a subsequent telephone conversation, Bert told me that he received a phone call from Brad Horn, director of communications of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, five minutes before the results were announced. Thinking this may have been the call that every Hall of Fame candidate dreams of, Bert was holding hands with his wife Gayle when Horn told him that he missed out by five votes. Blyleven laughingly said, "You've got to be kidding me, right?" Turns out it wasn't a joke or one of his friends pulling a prank on him.

I initiated the email thread that morning when I sent Bert the latest update on the Hall of Fame balloting as compiled by Repoz, the editor-in-chief of the Baseball Think Factory. Based on 125 full ballots, Blyleven was at 80.0%. I told him: "I thought it was a 1-in-3 shot this year but am now thinking 50-50 with 99.9% certainty next year (if not this year). It's gonna happen, either this time around or next time around. You deserve it, and I'm very happy for you. It's been too long of a wait already. I hope it's just a matter of an hour or so now."

As it turned out, it looks as if it will be at least 8,760 more hours before Bert is rightfully elected to the Hall of Fame. The good news is that his election is no longer a matter of if but when. We only need to round up five more votes.

These needed votes could come from Carrie Muskat, Mark Newman, and Marty Noble at MLB.com and Pedro Gomez, Tony Jackson, and Michael Knisley at ESPN.com. Or from any of the other 133 writers who voted "no."

Maybe Jay Mariotti, assuming he is still a member of the BBWAA next year, will vote for Blyleven once again rather than turning in a blank ballot. Perhaps Murray Chass will reconsider his position, putting into proper perspective Bert's 10-17 record at the age of 38 when he "pitched with a sore shoulder all season long." Heck, maybe Buster Olney and Jon Heyman, both of whom have never voted for Blyleven based on their belief (here and here, respectively) that he wasn't a "dominant" pitcher, will check out the following table and recognize that he was indeed the dominant pitcher during a large portion of the 1970s.

Bert led the majors in Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) for FOUR CONSECUTIVE FIVE-YEAR PERIODS beginning in 1971-1975 and ending in 1974-1978. RSAA was created by Lee Sinins of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. It measures the number of runs that a pitcher saves his team relative to the number of runs that an average pitcher in the league would allow over the same number of innings, adjusted for ballpark effects. The beauty of RSAA is that it combines quality (runs saved per inning vs. the league average) and quantity (innings pitched).

Over the past 50 years, the five-year leaders have included Don Drysdale (1x), Sandy Koufax (3x), Juan Marichal (2x), Bob Gibson (2x), Tom Seaver (2x), Bert Blyleven (4x), Jim Palmer (1x), Steve Carlton (3x), Dave Stieb (5x), Roger Clemens (7x), Greg Maddux (5x), Pedro Martinez (4x), Randy Johnson (2x), Johan Santana (3x), and Roy Halladay (1x). While it may be too early to judge Santana and Halladay, 11 of the other 12 pitchers are either enshrined or will be enshrined (including several "inner circle" Hall of Famers). The only exception is Stieb, whose HOF case was derailed by a relatively short career.

Note: You can access the complete list of leaders since 1900 here.

Should Runs Saved Above Average be too abstract for your tastes, how about if we just dumb Blyleven's Hall of Fame case down to the following four sentences:

Bert Blyleven ranks fifth in career strikeouts, ninth in career shutouts, and in the top 20 since 1900 in wins. Every eligible pitcher with 3,000 strikeouts is in the Hall of Fame except Blyleven, who has 3,701. Every eligible pitcher with 50 shutouts is in the Hall of Fame except Blyleven, who has 60. Every eligible pitcher in the top 20 in wins since 1900 is in the Hall of Fame except Blyleven and Tommy John.

For those who might wonder why Blyleven and not John, please be aware that Bert struck out 1,456 more batters, pitched 14 more shutouts, and had a superior K/BB (2.80 vs. 1.78), WHIP (1.20 vs. 1.28), and ERA+ (118 vs. 110).

Be it RSAA, strikeouts, shutouts, or the fact that he completed fifteen 1-0 shutout victories (the third-most ever and the highest total in 75 years), Blyleven was clearly a dominant pitcher. He should have been voted into Cooperstown a long, long time ago. It would defame the Hall if Blyleven weren't elected in one of his two final years of eligibility. Meanwhile, here's hoping that the same 400 writers who voted for him this year mark an "X" next to his name again *and* at least five additional writers step up and support his candidacy in 2011.

With the help of long-time advocates such as Jim Caple, Jay Jaffe, Rob Neyer, Dayn Perry, Joe Posnanski, and Joe Sheehan, I believe we can convince a number of voters who have either been on the fence in the past or may not have taken the time to understand and appreciate Blyleven's qualifications. These newbies can join the ranks of converts like Caple himself, Bill Conlin, Jerry Crasnick, Peter Gammons, Bob Klapisch, Jeff Peek, Tracy Ringolsby, Ken Rosenthal, T.R. Sullivan (and many, many others), all of whom began to vote for Blyleven at some point during the past seven years.

As they say, "If you can't beat them, join them." For added measure, you'll be on the winning side next time around.

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Thanks to Fangraphs and Jeremy Greenhouse, I now have access to the 2009 stats in three spreadsheets covering 706 hitters, 664 pitchers, and 1,877 rows for fielders (including seven for Ben Zobrist). While combing through these numbers, it occurred to me that I had graphed pitchers and payroll efficiency over the years but never hitters. Well, that's about to change.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a graph is worth at least as many. Tables are nice to peruse but graphs are clearly more visual than columns and rows of stats. Although there is nothing groundbreaking as it relates to the graphs that I have chosen to present, I believe they tell their own stories. They are designed to be simple and straightforward. Two axis, four quadrants, and player names identifying outliers.

The first graph, which I call Productivity, plots on-base percentages on the x-axis and slugging averages on the y-axis for every qualified batter in 2009. The intersection of the MLB averages for OBP (.333) and SLG (.418) created quadrants that classify players as above average in both (upper right), below average in both (lower left), or above average in one and below average in the other (upper left and lower right).

Note: You can download a spreadsheet containing the AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS of the 155 hitters here. This information can also be used to locate the 135 players not labeled in the graph below.

I've got two questions:

1. Is Albert Pujols any good?
2. Is Yuniesky Betancourt really the starting shortstop for the Kansas City Royals?

OK, I've got one more:

3. Did Royals GM Dayton Moore just sign Jason Kendall to a two-year contract for $6 million?

Bonus round:

4. Is it true that Moore signed a four-year extension with the Royals through 2014 more than a year before his current deal expired?

The answer to all four questions is ... drum roll, please ... YES!

Pujols (.443 OBP, .658 SLG) is very, very good. He carried my fantasy baseball team to a championship in 2009. Thank goodness for pulling the piece of paper with "1" out of the hat prior to our draft. He won his third National League Most Valuable Player Award unanimously, leading the senior circuit in OBP, SLG, OPS (1.101), OPS+ (188), R (124), HR (47), XBH (93), TOB (310), TB (374), and several other advanced metrics. Prince Albert doesn't turn 30 until the middle of this month, yet he has already produced over 1,700 hits and 800 walks, slugged 387 doubles and 366 home runs, and surpassed 1,000 runs scored and 1,100 runs batted in over the first nine years of his career.

Betancourt, on the other hand, had the lowest OBP (.274) and the seventh-worst SLG (.351) in the majors. The distinction of ranking dead last in SLG went to Yuniesky's newest teammate, the 35-year-old Kendall, who has "hit" .261/.336/.321 (OPS+ of 76) with 8 HR in nearly 3,000 plate appearances since being traded by the Pittsburgh Pirates (or was it the "Stealers"?) after the 2004 season.

Joe Mauer (very good) and Emilio Bonifacio (very bad) also stood out last year. Mauer was named AL MVP, sweeping the Triple Crown in rate stats with a .365 AVG, .444 OBP, and .587 SLG while winning his third batting title in the past four seasons. He also led the league in OPS (1.031) and OPS+ (170). Did I mention that Kendall is Mauer's third-most similar player through age 26?

Speaking of Bonifacio, how many fantasy owners picked him up when he was hitting .583/.600/.833 after the first week of the season? He rewarded them by putting up a .233/.288/.279 line the rest of the way.

There are a number of other interesting observations from the Productivity graph. For example, check out the names of the high-OBP and high-SLG players in the northeast quadrant. In addition to Pujols, the list includes Prince Fielder (.412/.602), Joey Votto (.414/.567), Derrek Lee (.393/.579), Ryan Howard (.360/.571), and Kendry Morales (.355/.569). First basemen all. The diamond directly below Votto's is Kevin Youkilis (.413/.548). The one down and to the right of Lee's is Miguel Cabrera (.396/.547). The diamond that is between Youk and Miggy is Adrian Gonzalez (.407/.551). Lastly, the one down and to the left of Lee is Mark Teixeira (.383/.565).

The following graph is a duplicate of the one above but it also includes a trendline. I chose a linear trendline as it is virtually the same as the other choices. The equation for the dataset of all qualified hitters is y = 1.1493x + 0.051. Or, more specifically, SLG = 1.1493 x OBP + 0.051. Due to the lack of pitchers and bench players, the qualified group produced a simple average OBP of .354 and SLG of .458, or 6.3% and 9.6%, respectively, higher than the league norm.

The hitters below the trendline get more of their productivity from OBP while those above the line get more from SLG. While many of the players below the trendline are not particularly skilled at reaching base (wherefore art thou Bonifacio?), they are even more inept at hitting for power.

Nick Johnson, Chone Figgins, Luis Castillo, and Russell Martin derived most of their offensive value last year from getting on base. Jose Lopez and Bengie Molina hit for some power but made far too many outs. Todd Helton and Derek Jeter were two of the more productive hitters, combining on base with slugging but generating more value from the former than the latter.

Although Mauer and Pujols led their respective leagues in OBP, both players slugged at an even higher rate relative to the league average. Given that Mauer and Pujols are standout defensive players as well, it's not difficult to understand whey they were named the Most Valuable Players in 2009.

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Fifteen new candidates are among the 26 players listed on the 2010 Hall of Fame ballot mailed to more than 575 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America late last month. The newcomers include Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, and Fred McGriff, as well as Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura, and Todd Zeile.

Among the 11 holdovers, Andre Dawson (67.0%) and Bert Blyleven (62.7%) were the only players named on more than half of the 539 ballots cast last year. Candidates need 75 percent to gain entry into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. Among players not currently on the BBWAA ballot, Gil Hodges is the only candidate to receive over 60 percent and not eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame.

The other returnees are Harold Baines, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, and Alan Trammell. Candidates remain under consideration for up to 15 years as long as they are named on at least five percent of the ballots cast.

The BBWAA election rules detail the authorization, electors, eligible candidates, method of election, voting, time of election, and certification of election results. The electors, consisting of active and honorary members of the BBWAA with 10 or more consecutive years' experience, may vote for up to 10 eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted. Ballots must be postmarked no later than December 31. Results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010, on the web sites of the Hall of Fame and the BBWAA. The Induction Ceremonies will take place in Cooperstown on Sunday, July 25, 2010.

The Hall of Fame features 291 members, including 2010 Veterans Committee electees Doug Harvey and Whitey Herzog. Included are 202 former Major League players, 35 Negro Leaguers, 26 executives or pioneers, 19 managers and nine umpires. The BBWAA has elected 108 former players while the Hall of Fame Committee on Baseball Veterans has chosen 157 candidates. The defunct Committee on Negro Leagues selected nine members between 1971-1977 and the Special Committee on the Negro Leagues in 2006 elected 17 Negro Leaguers.

Here is a copy of the 2010 Hall of Fame Ballot that was mailed to the voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

A summary of the players' records and accomplishments accompanied the ballot. The players were listed in alphabetical order, starting with Alomar and ending with Zeile. The following page, which includes Blyleven, Burks, Dawson, and Galarraga, serves as an example of the information provided to the electorate.

If I had the privilege of voting, I would have placed a check next to the names of Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGwire, Raines, and Trammell. It's well known that I'm most partial to Blyleven, who ranks THIRTEENTH (13th) among all pitchers and TENTH (10th) among eligible pitchers in Wins Above Replacement. Every pitcher in the top 23 is either in the Hall of Fame or should be five years after their retirement except Only the Lonely himself. For those who prefer more traditional measurements, Blyleven ranks fifth in career strikeouts, ninth in shutouts, and 27th in wins (top 20 since 1900). No matter how you like your numbers, Blyleven should have been voted into the HOF many, many years ago. He is, by far, the most deserving player on this year's ballot.

In addition to Blyleven, I believe Raines has been grossly overlooked. I supported 30 Rock's candidacy two years ago when he first appeared on the ballot. Raines is one of the greatest lead-off batters in the history of the game, ranking 41st all-time in getting on base (hits + walks + hit by pitch), 50th in runs scored, and 5th in stolen bases (with the second-highest success rate among those with 300 or more SB). He has more Win Shares (390) than any player up for election.

I believe Alomar, Larkin, and Trammell are more comparable than not. All three middle infielders belong in the Hall of Fame. In 2001, Bill James ranked each of them in the top ten of their positions in his New Historical Baseball Abstract. They were five-tool players who could hit for average, hit for power for their positions, run, field, and throw. In addition, Alomar (1,032 BB/1,140 SO), Larkin (939 BB/817 SO), and Trammell (850/874 SO) displayed terrific bat control and plate discipline.

Alomar (.300/.371/.443, 116 OPS+, 474 SB/81%) ranks in the top 80 all time in runs, hits, doubles, total bases, times on base, runs created, and stolen bases—remarkable achievements for a second baseman who won 10 Gold Gloves. Larkin (.295/.371/.444, 116 OPS+, 379 SB/83%), who was the first shortstop to hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases in the same season, has the 1995 NL MVP Award and three Gold Gloves in his trophy case. James called him "one of the ten most complete players in baseball history." Trammell (.285/.352/.415, 110 OPS+, 236 SB/68%) won four Gold Gloves and should have been named the AL MVP in 1987 when the shortstop hit .343/.402/.551 but lost out to left fielder George Bell (.308/.352/.605), a one-dimensional player, when voters were fixated on RBI rather than overall performance and value.

The main argument against Martinez is that he was a designated hitter and failed to get 3,000 hits or even 400 home runs. Well, Jim Rice DH'd for a quarter of his career and came up short of those two milestones, yet was voted into the HOF last year. The biggest difference between Martinez and Rice isn't in their counting stats but in their rate stats. Martinez hit .312/.418/.515 with an OPS+ of 147. Rice hit .298/.352/.502 with an OPS+ of 128. Edgar had a higher AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ than James Edward. Martinez played in an era more suited to hitters while Rice benefited from a more friendly home ballpark.

Martinez had an OPS+ of 132 or higher in every season in which he had 400 or more plate appearances, other than in his final year in 2004. The righthanded hitter was an on-base and doubles machine, leading the league three times in OBP and twice in 2B while ranking 22nd and 41st in these two categories all time. He also ranks in the top 50 in BB, OPS, and OPS+. Like Rice, Martinez wasn't much in the field or on the bases, but he was a more productive hitter and a superior offensive player.

By any objective standard, McGwire is a clear-cut Hall of Famer. Big Mac ranks 8th in HR (583), 9th in SLG (.588), 11th in OPS (.982), 12th in OPS+ (162), and FIRST in AB per HR (10.6). He led the league in HR four times, including a then single-season record of 70 in 1998. McGwire (.299/.470/.752 with 41 Win Shares) inexplicably wasn't voted NL MVP that season, receiving just two first-place votes vs. 30 for Sammy Sosa (.308/.377/.647, 35 Win Shares).

Importantly, McGwire wasn't suspended nor expelled from the game. He has never admitted to or been convicted of any steroid use and wasn't even named in The Mitchell Report. In 1998, Big Mac acknowledged taking androstenedione, an over-the-counter product that was legal at the time under U.S. law and for use in MLB. It wasn't considered an anabolic steroid until three years after his retirement. If enough revisionist historians want to exclude McGwire from the Hall of Fame, I guess they will sadly win out.

Although I'm not in favor of Dawson's candidacy, I can understand why writers would vote for him. He combined power, speed, and defense in a career that resulted in 438 home runs, 314 stolen bases, and eight Gold Gloves. My beef with Dawson is that he simply made too many outs for my tastes (and many others). That said, it wouldn't be the biggest injustice if the Hawk gained entry into the Hall of Fame (unless, of course, he makes it and Raines never does).

McGriff is a borderline candidate, perhaps more suited to the Hall of the Very Good than the Hall of Fame. At a minimum, I'm hopeful that he will get at least five percent of the vote and remain on the ballot for another year. Falling seven home runs short of 500 for his career, the Crime Dog might not resonate with voters who may have forgotten just how good he was in the late-1980s and early-1990s. To wit, from 1988-1994, McGriff ranked in the top five in HR and OPS every season. That's right, for seven straight years, he finished either first, second, third, fourth, or fifth in his league in those two slugging categories. He could get on base, too, placing in the top four in OBP for four consecutive campaigns.

If peak value was the sole criteria, I could get behind Mattingly, Murphy, and Parker. Donnie Baseball may have been the preeminent hitter in the game from 1984-1986 when he hit .340 and averaged 219 hits, 48 doubles, and 30 home runs while leading the majors in total bases in '85 and '86. He could also field, picking up nine Gold Gloves at first base along the way. Murphy, who didn't miss a game from 1982-1985 when he was one of the best position players in baseball, was named NL MVP in back-to-back seasons and was a five-time recipient of the Gold Glove Award. Parker broke out in 1975 and was the man from 1977-1979 when he won an MVP, two batting titles, and three Gold Gloves. He and Rice had parallel careers, and it is my belief that the Cobra was nearly the same hitter and a much better fielder and baserunner at the height of their careers. All three candidates have loyal backers and will likely remain on the ballot for their entire 15 years of eligibility, yet none has ever received as much as 30 percent of the vote.

Morris and Smith have their fans but both seem stuck in the low-40s in terms of their overall support. It's rare to stumble across an endorsement of Morris without reading about his postseason pitching prowess. While Jack's 10-inning, complete-game shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series is undoubtedly one of the best pitching performances in the history of the Fall Classic, his overall postseason record (7-4, 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB) pales in comparison to Blyleven's (5-1, 2.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.50 K/BB). As Joe Posnanski covered in detail earlier this week, Blyleven beat Morris head-to-head in the 1987 ALCS and returned on three days' rest to win the clincher before helping the Twins overtake the Cardinals in the World Series.

Meanwhile, Baines, who Buster Olney somehow likened to Blyleven, runs the risk of dropping off the ballot after three years of picking up more than five percent but less than six percent of the vote.

First timers Appier, Burks, and Ventura are worthy of some love but unlikely to secure five percent of the vote. Galarraga, Hentgen, and Lankford all had their moments but fall well short of consideration. I'm not sure how Jackson, Reynolds, Segui, and Zeile got past the screening committee and, along with Karros, will be surprised if any of these players receives a single vote.

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Despite ranking fifth in career strikeouts, ninth in shutouts and 27th in wins, Bert Blyleven inexplicably remains on the outside of Cooperstown looking in.

I have been knocking on the doors of the Hall of Fame since December 2003. Blyleven's voting percentage has climbed from 29% that year to 41% in 2005, 48% in 2007, and 63% in 2009. He is trending well but still needs to get to the 75% threshold to receive his just due.

According to Sky Andrecheck, "No player in the last 25 years has seen his vote totals rise so sharply and not been enshrined in the Hall. I wouldn't bet on Blyleven being the first."

Let's hope Sky is right. In the meantime, the two most widely heard arguments against Blyleven's qualifications for the Hall of Fame involve his lack of All-Star Game appearances and poor showings in the Cy Young Award balloting. While I have refuted both of these concerns many times in the past (see multiple links to the Bert Blyleven Series in the sidebar to the left), I am going to take another shot at it today, asking questions and providing answers (including an excerpt from what I wrote in December 2006).

How many times did the All-Star Game manager pick nine or ten *starting* pitchers during Blyleven's career? I might be wrong, but I would be surprised if ten starters (without double counting injured and replacements) were ever selected for a single ASG during his career. A few nines but mostly six, seven, or eight by my count.

Of those six, seven, or eight, how many pitchers did those managers select from their own teams? Do you think that is an objective measure? How many times did they pick a starting pitcher as the lone representative from that player's team? When your teammates are named Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Stargell, and Parker, you're never going to be selected as the lone player from your club.

Was Blyleven ever passed over because he had pitched the weekend before the All-Star game? Moreover, don't you think managers were as "guilty" as the writers when making these selections by focusing on win-loss records as much or more than other stats that a pitcher has more control over? If so, can we agree that W-L records are not the best measure of a pitcher's performance?

For example, in 1972, Blyleven's ERA was 2.85 over, get this, 170.2 innings at the All-Star break. He wasn't selected because his W-L record was 9-12. He pitched like an All-Star but was penalized because his W-L record was under .500. Manager Earl Weaver went with Blyleven's teammate Jim Perry, who was 8-9 with a 3.21 ERA at the break, rather than with Bert. Think the fact that Perry was a 14-year veteran and Blyleven was in his second full season had anything to do with that injustice? How about Weaver choosing Marty Pattin (8-8, 3.75 ERA) over Blyleven?

In 1977, Blyleven had an ERA of 2.61 with outstanding peripherals at the All-Star break. Why do you suppose he wasn't named to the All-Star team? Do you think the fact that his W-L record was 8-9 had anything to do with it? Instead of selecting Blyleven as one of the seven starting pitchers, Billy Martin chose Bert Campaneris to represent the Texas Rangers. Campaneris was hitting .256/.317/.352 with 13 SB and 15 CS at the break.

In 1989, Blyleven was 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 125.2 IP, yet once again was passed over as one of the six pitchers Tony La Russa chose, two of whom were from his own A's team, including Dave Stewart, who "earned" the right to start the game due to his 13-4 record despite posting an ERA of 3.24 (more than a full run higher than Blyleven) while allowing more hits than innings and producing a K/BB ratio of less than 2.

Re the All-Star Game, here is what I wrote (along with breaking out his first and second half career stats) in Answering the Naysayers (Part Two) in December 2006:

As it relates to the number of All-Star Game appearances, Blyleven generally pitched better in the second half of the season than in the first half. Unfortunately, All-Star selections are based on how players perform during April, May, and June rather than July, August, and September.

             W   L   PCT    ERA    IP      H     R    ER   HR    BB    SO
1st Half   150 140  .517   3.47  2738   2620  1167  1056  258   726  2046  
2nd Half   137 110  .555   3.12  2232   2012   862   774  172   596  1655

Given that W-L records and ERAs are the stats most heavily considered by managers when it comes to picking All-Star starting pitchers, it follows that Blyleven would have been viewed more favorably had this honor taken place at the end of the season rather than in the middle.

If anything, Blyleven's splits should be viewed in a positive light. He did his best work in August and September (and in the postseason).

            W   L    ERA    IP      H     R    ER   HR    BB    SO
April/Mar.  30  36   3.61   680.2  661   301   273   69   199   487 
May         50  41   3.40   858.1  800   360   324   72   220   689 
June        49  46   3.37   803    773   337   301   78   212   596 
July        48  44   3.70   873    831   390   359   88   240   613 
August      59  36   2.89   863    770   313   277   62   222   645 
Sept./Oct.  51  47   2.99   892    797   328   296   61   229   671 
Postseason   5   1   2.47    47.1   43    15    13    5     8    36

Blyleven performed like an All-Star in 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, and 1989. For example, in his first full season in 1971, Bert led the league in strikeouts-to-walks (3.80), ranked third in Runs Saved Against Average (26), fourth in strikeouts (224) and adjusted ERA+ (127), fifth in ERA (2.81) and shutouts (5), eighth in complete games (17), and ninth in innings pitched (278 1/3), yet he wasn't an All-Star. Blyleven rightfully made the team in 1973 when he was arguably the best pitcher in the AL.

In 1974, Blyleven was 2nd in K (249), K/BB (3.23), and ERA+ (142); 4th in ERA (2.66), WHIP (1.14), and RSAA (32); and 10th in CG (19), yet failed to earn All-Star honors once again.

One year later, Bert ended up 2nd in K (233), 3rd in WHIP (1.10) and RSAA (34), 4th in K/BB (2.77), 5th in CG (20) and ERA+ (129), 6th in ERA (3.00), 7th in IP (275 2/3), and 9th in SHO (3) and, lo and behold, didn't make the All-Star team.

In 1976, Blyleven was 2nd in SHO (6), 3rd in K (219), 4th in IP (297 2/3), 5th in K/BB (2.70), 7th in RSAA (23), 8th in ERA+ (125), and 9th in ERA (2.87) and CG (18) but took another mini-vacation in July.

Bert may have been the best pitcher in the AL once again in 1977. He led the league in WHIP (1.07) and RSAA (39); was 2nd in ERA (2.72), ERA+ (151), and shutouts (5); 7th in K (182); 8th in K/BB (2.64); and 10th in CG (15), yet had nothing to show for it in terms of being an All-Star.

In the strike-shortened 1981 season, Blyleven ranked 3rd in K (107) and K/BB (2.67); 8th in WHIP (1.16) and ERA (2.88); 9th in ERA+ (126) and CG (9); and 10th in W (11). He watched the ASG from home.

In 1984, Bert led the league in RSAA (40); placed 2nd in W (19), WHIP (1.13), and ERA+ (142); 3rd in ERA (2.87) and SHO (4); 4th in K (170) and CG (12); and 8th in K/BB (2.30) despite playing for a team with a 75-87 record that ended up sixth in a seven-team division. He must have been an All-Star that year, right? Nope, he was left off the team again.

Blyleven made the All-Star team in 1985 for the second time in his career. However, he was ignored the following year when he led the league in IP (271 2/3) as well as in K/BB (3.71); placed 2nd in CG (16), 4th in K (215) and SHO (3), 6th in W (17), 7th in WHIP (1.18), and 10th in RSAA (19).

In 1989, the 38-year-old led the league in SHO (5); ranked 3rd in WHIP (1.12) and RSAA (28); 4th in ERA (2.73), ERA+ (140), and CG (8); 5th in K/BB (2.98); 6th in W (17); and 7th in IP (241), yet missed out on being an All-Star. Go figure.

As demonstrated, the fact that Blyleven was only named an All-Star twice is more a function of the system than a reflection on how well he pitched.

Importantly, the above breakdown also works just as well, if not even better, with respect to how Blyleven should have ranked in the CYA voting.

Speaking of which, I can't help but wonder if Blyleven's candidacy wouldn't be viewed more favorably today had the Baseball Writers Association of America implemented its new policy by expanding the Cy Young ballot from three to five spots 40 years ago?

Moreover, if the voters back then evaluated pitching performance more like today, perhaps Blyleven would have won the Cy Young Award in 1973? While Blyleven may not have quite put up a season equal to the likes of Zack Greinke or Tim Lincecum in 2009, it was a lot closer than what he was given credit for in the balloting that year. With more emphasis on K/BB, WHIP, FIP, and other measures besides wins and losses, Blyleven's dominance would be more notable today than how it has been perceived by many naysayers in the past.

There's plenty of room inside the Hall of Fame for Blyleven's plaque. The writers only have 2010, 2011, and 2012 to get it right as Bert drops off the ballot in three years. I anticipate further progress this year with an enshrinement date set for July 2011.

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We debut Baseball Analysts Radio today. While not technically radio, it is our attempt to provide audio content to supplement the daily articles written by analysts Dave Allen, Sky Andrecheck, Jeremy Greenhouse, Marc Hulet, Chris Moore, Patrick Sullivan, and me, as well as special guest columnists that have included many established and up-and-coming voices in the baseball world.

The first segment covers the just concluded Winter Meetings. I detail more than 15 trades and free agent signings, offering both news and views on these transactions. I'm planning to add more commentary on the three-way trade among the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks, plus the Chone Figgins signing in our next episodes.

We hope you enjoy this new feature at Baseball Analysts.

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The Baseball Analysts, which Bryan Smith and I co-founded in early 2005, is fast approaching its five-year anniversary. The new site was the result of a merger between Bryan's Wait 'Til Next Year and my Baseball Beat, whose origins go back to the spring of 2003.

Over the ensuing years, Baseball Analysts has witnessed Bryan's departure in 2006, followed by the additions of Jeff Albert that fall; Patrick Sullivan, Marc Hulet, and Joe P. Sheehan the following spring; and Jeremy Greenhouse, Dave Allen, and Sky Andrecheck during spring training 2009. Albert, Sullivan, Sheehan, and Greenhouse all debuted as guest columnists and their Designated Hitter articles earned them permanent spots in our starting lineup.

We eventually lost Albert and Sheehan to Major League Baseball. Albert was hired by the St. Louis Cardinals before the 2008 season to serve as the hitting instructor for the Batavia Muckdogs, its Short-Season Class A affiliate in the New York-Penn League. He was promoted to the Palm Beach Cardinals, the club's High-A affiliate in the Florida State League, prior to last season. Earlier this month, the Redbirds announced that Albert will be one of three minor-league hitting coaches returning to their positions for the 2010 campaign.

Sheehan received an internship with the San Diego Padres in 2008 and joined Dan Fox, a former writer for The Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus, with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the conclusion of that season. Fox, who wrote a few guest columns for Baseball Analysts, is the Director of Baseball Systems Development and the architect of the team's Managing, Information, Tools and Talent (MITT) system.

Along these same lines, I'm proud to report that Sky Andrecheck, in addition to filling his normal Tuesday spot at Baseball Analysts, will be writing a weekly column during the offseason for SI.com. His first two Behind the Scoreboard articles can be accessed here. It says here that the sky is the limit for the statistician by day and baseball analyst and writer by night.

Andrecheck was also chosen by Dave Studenmund to serve as a guest writer for The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010. Sky wrote a piece on Championship Leverage Index. He introduced the concept last March in his second contribution at Baseball Analysts. Sky gives credit to Tom Tango for pioneering the concept of Leverage Index, which "puts a value on the importance of each moment in the game." Championship Leverage Index "takes the same idea and applies it in the context of an entire season. Like its in-game cousin, Champ LI quantifies each team's games in terms of the impact they are likely to have on winning a championship." Later in the article, he says Champ LI "essentially measures the probability that the outcome of one game will decide a playoff berth."

Dave Allen was also asked to write an article for THT Baseball Annual, which began shipping in the middle of November. Allen, who has contributed a weekly column for Baseball Analysts since last March and can also be found at Fangraphs, is one of the small number of PITCHf/x specialists. The title of his article is "Where Was That Pitch?" As with all of Dave's excellent studies, this piece is filled with graphs detailing the run values of two- and four-seam fastballs, curveballs, sliders, and changeups by pitch location.

The lowest run value is generally on pitches up and in, as these pitches have a low slugging rate on balls in play (many infield flies) and on pitches down-and-away, which have a low slugging average on balls in play (many ground balls) and a low contact rate. Pitches up-and-away and down-and-in tend to have intermediate run values and vary by pitch type.

Allen references five of his articles at Baseball Analysts and cites our own Joe Sheehan, one of the original PITCHf/x experts; Jeremy Greenhouse, who Mitchel Lichtman (also known as MGL) recently touted as a future front-office employee; and Chris Moore, author of the Best Fastballs in Baseball.

As an owner and connoisseur of the entire run of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts (1977-1988), I can tell you that The Hardball Times Baseball Annual is in that same league of annual baseball publications. You can trust its cover when it promises "timeless commentary, innovative stats, and great baseball writing."

James, in fact, is one of the contributors. He is the author of "Strong Seasons Leading Index," a system that seeks to produce "a list of the players who are most likely—and most unlikely—to sustain or improve on their 2009 seasons." Among players with 400 or more plate appearances last season, Dioner Navarro, Chris Young, and J.J. Hardy score the highest and Jorge Posada, Matt Diaz, and Craig Counsell the lowest. You might want to check out the full list when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft this winter.

Other guest columnists include Craig Wright, John Dewan, Tom Tango, Sean Smith, and Greg Rybarczyk. These highly regarded sabermetricians are joined by the stable of writers at The Hardball Times, including past Designated Hitters at Baseball Analysts Rybarczyk, Craig Calcaterra, David Gassko, Jeff Sackman, Dave Studenmund, Steve Treder, John Walsh, and Geoff Young.

For those readers who have purchased THT Baseball Annual in the past, this is a reminder that you need to get your order in now. For everyone else, I am confident that you will not be disappointed if you pick up a copy for the first time. You can help out the site and many of the best baseball analysts in the country by purchasing the book directly through this link. The small premium involved is a way of saying thanks for all the free stats, information, education, and entertainment you receive at The Hardball Times throughout the year.

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"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". — Rogers Hornsby

With the holiday season fast approaching, it's time to begin putting together your wish or gift list. You can do your part to stimulate the economy by purchasing an item or two in one of the many sports memorabilia auctions taking place in November and December.

In the 6th Annual Live Auction at Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory, Hunt Auctions just sold Curt Flood's 1963 Rawlings Gold Glove Award for $13,200 (vs. an estimate of $5,000-$7,000) and his 1964 St. Louis Cardinals World Series ring for $21,000 (vs. an estimate of $15,000-$20,000).

Do not despair if you missed out on those items last weekend. There's still three days left to bid on a Frank Chance 1911-12 Chicago Cubs Game Used Home Jersey in the Legendary Auctions. The current bid has risen from $10,000 to $42,500. With bidding increments at $2,500 and an 18.5 percent buyer's premium, you might be able to land this jersey for $53,325.

For those of you who like offense more than defense at first base, you can be the first to bid on a circa 1933 Lou Gehrig New York Yankees Game-Used Home Flannel Jersey in the Grey Flannel 2009 Holiday Auction (shown at left). The minimum bid is only $225,000.

If you can't afford to lay out a quarter of a million dollars or more for the Gehrig jersey, then perhaps consider a 1927-1930 Benny Bengough New York Yankees Gamer. The platoon/backup catcher was a member of four World Series championship teams (1923, 1927, 1928, and 1932). He hit .258/.305/.322 (60 OPS+) in 95 games and 308 plate appearances for a team that went 69-85, yet finished 24th for the 1925 AL MVP Award. Bengough was either one helluva defensive catcher or had a relative who voted for him.

Bengough beat out Babe Ruth, who failed to garner a single vote in the only season from 1918-1931 in which the Bambino didn't lead the league in slugging, OPS, and OPS+.

According to Wikipedia, Ruth fell ill during spring training in 1925 and "returned to New York for what was reported as stomach surgery."

Ruth's ailment was dubbed "the bellyache heard round the world," when one writer wrote that Ruth's illness was caused by binging on hot dogs and soda pop before a game. Venereal disease and alcohol poisoning (caused by tainted liquor, a major health problem during the Prohibition) have also been speculated to be the causes of his illness. However, the exact nature of his ailment has never been confirmed and remains a mystery. Playing just 98 games, Ruth had what would be his worst season as a Yankee as he finished the season with a .290 average and 25 home runs. The Yankees team finished next to last in the American League with a 69-85 mark, their last season with a losing record until 1965.

Should jerseys not be your thing, you can pick up a 1927 Yankees (Murderers Row) autographed baseball. The signatures are faint but, hey, the bidding only starts at $5,000.

Boston Red Sox fans can add a 1972 Carl Yastrzemski Game-Used Home Flannel Jersey or a 2004 World Championship Ring to their collection. The latter belonged to Pablo Lantigua, a scouting supervisor who was fired last year for his involvement in the Dominican kickback scandal. The current bid is $12,100.

Lou Brock fans can bid on the Hall of Famer's 1974 Game Used Jersey (the one he wore to set the single-season stolen base record of 105) to the Game Used Base Stolen by him to break Ty Cobb's record to his 1967 World Championship Ring (current bid of $24,000) to a Game Used Glove or pair of Cleats to one of the many awards he won over the years. (View lots 1-78 here.)

If these items are out of your price range, consider bidding on a 1967 Jose Tartabull Boston Red Sox Worn & Autographed World Series Jacket. Heck, even if you're not a fan, this jacket might keep you warm during the cold winter months while waiting for Spring Training 2010. Only 104 days until March 1.

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What a pleasant surprise it was to receive a review copy of The Bill James Handbook 2010 on Halloween Day before the third game of the 2009 World Series. The Handbook is not only the first baseball stats annual to hit the market each year but the most comprehensive as well.

The book, featuring Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria on the cover, combines many of the best features of The Sporting News Baseball Register and Baseball Guide—both of which are now defunct, thanks in no small part to Bill James and the team at Baseball Info Solutions and ACTA Sports. This is the eighth year of the Handbook, which I have been reviewing since the 2004 edition was released in November 2003.

Whereas The Bill James Abstracts from 1977-1988, the Bill James Baseball Books from 1990-1992, and The Bill James Player Ratings Books from 1993-1995 were full of commentary from James himself, the Handbook is devoted more to the presentation of stats. However, I'm happy to say that the number of pages penned by James has grown from five six years ago to over 30 this year.

In addition to staples like Team Statistics, the Player Career Register, Fielding Statistics, the Fielding Bible Awards, Park Indices (including the new Yankee Stadium and Citi Field), and Win Shares, new features in this year's book include a history of Instant Replay and Pinch Hitting Analysis.

Major League Baseball introduced instant replay in late August 2008 to determine whether disputable home runs were fair, foul, or interfered with by a fan. In just over one full season, umpires have consulted instant replay 65 times and 22 calls have been overturned. The Handbook provides the details of each and every instant replay review in 2008 and 2009.

James attaches his byline to Team Efficiency Summary, The Baserunners, 2009 Relief Pitchers, Manufactured Runs, The Manager's Record, Young Talent Inventory, Hitter Projections, Pitcher Projections, and Pitchers on Course for 300 Wins.

The most efficient team in baseball is usually the Los Angeles Angels—anyway it was in 2009, and it was in 2008, and it has been in other years. The Angels do little things so well that they are consistently able to grind five or ten more wins a year out of their team than what one would think was available. We don't really understand how they do this, to be frank, but since they do it every year, we know it's not luck. Saying that they "do the little things well" is just a way of covering for the fact that we don't actually know how they do it.

If it wasn't for the Angels, we might think it was all luck. There are a couple of parts of the Angels' success that we do understand. For one thing, they run the bases extremely well. They picked up about 96 bases last year, or about 20 runs, just by running the bases better than the average team. Twenty-two of those bases are "stolen base gain," but 74 of them are bases gained by things like going first-to-third on a single or tagging up and advancing. That helps a lot. The Angels in 2009 had 221 "Manufactured Runs," by far the most of any major league team. Second, they usually have a good bullpen, which means that they can put a good pitcher on the mound when the game is close. Even in 2009, when they didn't have a really good bullpen, they also didn't have a really bad bullpen. Those things help to make a team "efficient," as we are using the term.

The least efficient team? The Washington Nationals. Based on category performance such as team batting average and home runs (both offensively and defensively), James contends that the Nationals and the Houston Astros "could have been expected to win about 70 games." Nonetheless, the Astros won 74 games and the Nats were "dreadfully inefficient" with only 59 victories.

The Career Register includes career stats through the 2009 season for every major league player who participated in a game last year, as well as 32 bonus players, including those who missed the entire campaign due to injuries (such as Justin Duchscherer and Ben Sheets) and "potential foreign imports" (like Ryota Igarashi and Hisanori Takahashi). With approximately four or five players per page, this section comprises nearly 270 of the 514 numbered pages.

The Handbook provides traditional and advanced fielding statistics (G, GS, Inn, PO, A, E, DP, Pct., and Range plus SBA, CS, CS%, CERA for catchers), Runs Saved and Plus/Minus leaders, and the Fielding Bible Award winners.

Here are the results of The 2009 Fielding Bible Awards, as determined by a panel of ten analysts, including James, John Dewan, Peter Gammons, Joe Posnanski, and Rob Neyer (with the following commentary provided by Dewan). A complete record of the voting can be found in The Bill James Handbook 2010.

1B: Albert Pujols, STL - Four Fielding Bible Awards in four years. What's left to say?

2B: Aaron Hill, TOR - Hill wins the tie-breaker on the strength of four first-place votes, as opposed to only one for runner-up Dustin Pedroia.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS - Third base is a strong, deep defensive position in baseball right now, but Zimmerman has set himself apart by becoming the leader in Defensive Runs Saved over the last three years.

SS: Jack Wilson, PIT/SEA - Even though he split time between leagues, Wilson was the best shorstop in baseball this year, leading all shorstops in Runs Saved by a wide margin (27 compared to Brendan Ryan's 19).

LF: Carl Crawford, TB - No player has ever won with a perfect record (10 first-place votes from 10 panelists), but Crawford came as close as possible, garnering nine out of ten possible first-place votes. His 99 total points is an all-time record.

CF: Franklin Gutierrez, SEA - Winner of the 2008 Fielding Bible Award for right field, Gutierrez moved over to center field in 2009. His 31 Runs Saved were tied with Chone Figgins for the most in baseball.

RF: Ichiro Suzuki, SEA - Hunter Pence gave Ichiro a run for his money, but Ichiro finished with 93 points to Pence's 84. This is Ichiro's second Fielding Bible Award.

C: Yadier Molina, STL - Everyone knows about Molina's incredible throwing arm (well, maybe not the eight guys he picked off this year), but Molina was also the third-best bad-pitch-blocking catcher in baseball behind Carlos Ruiz and Jason Varitek.

P: Mark Buehrle, CWS - Buerhle has defensive chops, but his ability to hold runners is legendary. In the last four years he's allowed a total of 15 stolen bases, picked off 14 baserunners, and thrown over to first—only to have the runner break for second and be thrown out—16 times.

The chapter on Baserunning is always one of my favorites, partly due to the hard-to-find numbers and the six pages of James' insights. While Baseball-Reference.com has advanced baserunning stats on each player page, I'm not aware of an alphabetized table that is as readable as those in the Handbook.

Before listing the best and worst baserunners by position, James compares Chone "Gone" Figgins (23-for-43 going from first-to-third on a single and 26-for-31 second-to-home on a single) with Prince Fielder (1-for-45 first-to-third on a single) and David Ortiz (2-for-16 second-to-home on a single), Emilio Bonafacio (10-for-10 first-to-home on a double) with Mike Lowell (0-for-10), and Denard Span (moved up a base 31 times on a WP, PB, Balk, SF, or Defensive Indifference) with Geoff Blum (never advanced a base on any of those plays).

Most people will tell you that we should have Carl Crawford in left field ahead of Ryan Braun, and people will tell you that Yadier Molina actually runs well for a catcher, or at least for a Molina. We don't base this on reputation. Carl Crawford was 8-for-27 going first-to-third on a single. Ryan Braun was 15-for-41, which is better. Crawford was 4-for-9 scoring from first on a double. Braun was 7-for-9. Crawford moved up 24 bases on Wild Pitches, Passed Balls, Balks, Sacrifice Flies and Defensive Indifference. Braun moved up 26 times. Crawford grounded into 7 double plays in 136 DP situations; Braun grounded into 7 in 172 situations. Braun was thrown out 5 times on the bases. Crawford was thrown out 10. Crawford is a very good baserunner—the second-best baserunner among major league left fielders in 2009, including his base stealing—but Braun was better. And Yadi Molina grounded into 27 frigging double plays, which is a record even for a Molina brother.

As James points out, "the difference between the best baserunner in the majors (Michael Bourn) and the worst (Juan Rivera) was 95 bases, or about 24 runs" [editor's note: equal to about 2 1/2 wins].

That's nowhere near as large as the difference between Ryan Howard's bat and Willie Bloomquist's. It is not as large as the difference between Tim Lincecum's arm and R.A. Dickey's, or the difference between Zach Greinke and Luke Hochevar. It is not as large as the difference between having Franklin Gutierrez in center field or Vernon Wells, nor even as large as the difference between Franklin Gutierrez and an average defensive center fielder.

It is not that large, but it is not meaningless or insignificant, either. It counts. We count everything because everything counts; that's our motto, or ought to be. On a team level the difference between best and worst baserunners is about 170 bases, or 40+ runs.

In the section on Relief Pitchers, the Handbook details 22 categories (with attendant commentary by James), including Games Pitched, Early Entries, Pitching on ConsecutiveDays, Long Outings, Leverage Index, Inherited Runners, Inherited Runners Who Scored, Inherited Runners Allowed Percentage, Easy Save Opportunity, Clean Outing, Blown Save Win, Saves, Save Opportunities, Holds, Save/Hold Percentage, and Opposition OPS. The stats of every pitcher who appeared in relief are listed in a table sorted by team and by job (closer, setup man, lefty relief specialist, long man, utility reliever, and emergency reliever).

James defines Manufactured Runs "loosely as any run on which two of the four bases result from doing something other than playing station-to-station baseball)" and gives a more technical description encompassing six rules. He says "the most critical element to manufacturing runs, in modern baseball, is speed. . .the bunt, yes, but modern teams don't bunt that much, and it doesn't lead to a lot of runs even when they do."

The best teams in baseball at Manufacturing Runs, pretty much every year, are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Minnesota Twins of Bloomington. Those two teams were 1-3 in 2006, 1-2 in 2007, 1-4 in 2008, and 1-2 in 2009. They're good at that. The Angels led the majors in 2009 with 221 Manufactured Runs.

In The Manager's Record, James admits "there are many things that a manager does that are beyond the scope of our analysis." However, he points out that there are "certain things that one manager does differently than another manager that we can study" (likes to use a fixed lineup or experiment; propensity to platoon; use of pinch hitters, pinch runners, and defensive substitutions; quick hooks and slow hooks; tolerance for long outings by starting pitchers; number of relievers and those used on consecutive days; stolen base and sacrifice bunt attempts; hit and run; pitchouts; and intentional walks).

After two years of including Young Talent Inventory, James decided that this item "does not really belong in this book"—opting to move it to the Bill James Gold Mine—for three reasons:

First, this is a book about facts, as opposed to a book of analysis that is in any way speculative. We try to make a record of the season, and we try to include information that has never been seen before, and we try to pull that together as quickly as we can so that we can make it available to you while the breath of the season still hangs in the air.

Second, the work process necessary for this book is not compatible with the needs of the Young Talent Inventory. This book is pulled together at a breakneck pace in the ten days following the end of the regular season. There is not a lot of room here for contemplation and review—and wouldn't be, even if that was all we were trying to do.

Third, the issue of which team owns the most talent is a forward-looking question, the sort of thing that one asks in the spring, as the season is getting underway: Who owns the future?

Of course baseball fans care about the future of their franchise as much in the fall as they do in the spring; I'm not suggesting that they don't. But I think it's a question that is more naturally asked in a spring annual than a fall summary, and we're going to move it over there where it belongs. I hope you understand.

The Bill James Handbook 2010 has much, much more to offer, including 2009 Leader Boards, mostly derived from the complex pitch data collected by Baseball Info Solutions. A lot of this information can be found at Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs, but there is something magical about flipping through a book and stumbling across the ten longest home runs in the A.L. and N.L., the ten longest average home runs in each league, the lowest and highest first swing %, the best and worst batting average plus slugging on pitches outside the strike zone, and the most pitches thrown at 95 or 100 mph. Trust me, there's enough enjoyment here to get you through the long winter.

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I'm looking forward to tonight. John Lackey vs. CC Sabathia in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

But wait...

The Yankees beat the Angels, 5-2, in Game 6 last night to win the AL pennant and advance to the World Series.

Darn. That lead-in was what I was hoping to write for today's Baseball Beat. However, it wasn't meant to be. Aside from the differences in payrolls, the Yankees won fair and square. The Bronx Bombers were the better team during the season and in the ALCS. They earned the home-field advantage and won all three games in New York. The Angels won two of three in Anaheim but it's impossible for a team in their position to win a best-of-seven series without taking at least one game on the road.

The Angels made a lot of mistakes in the field and on the basepaths during the series, but the idea that the team and its manager should be embarrassed is preposterous. Look, I'm as frustrated as the next fan, yet there's no shame in winning your division, beating the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, and losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. The last time I looked, only two teams go to the World Series and just one wins it all.

The bottom line is that the Angels played extremely well this year, although not quite up to the level of the Yankees. It's truly amazing what an extra 85 to 90 million dollars in payroll can do for your roster. Beating an All-Star team like that when it counts is no easy task.

Going forward, the Angels have a lot of decisions to make. Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins, Vladimir Guerrero, and John Lackey are all free agents. Furthermore, the farm system has little to offer for the immediate future.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Angels had an Opening Day payroll (salaries plus pro-rated signing bonuses) of $113,709,000. The team acquired Scott Kazmir in August and will be responsible for his $8 million contract in 2010 (as well as $12M in 2011 and a $13.5M club option or a $2.5M buyout in 2012). Kazmir's salary next year will be more than offset by the loss of Kelvim Escobar, who made $9.5M with little or nothing to show for it in 2009.

Abreu ($5M), Figgins ($5.775), Guerrero ($15M), and Lackey ($9M) totalled about $35 million in salary last season. Add in Darren Oliver ($3.665M) and Robb Quinlan ($1.1M) and the Angels could free up $40M next year.

Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, Jeff Mathis, Mike Napoli, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver are all eligible for arbitration and will pull down more money in 2010 than 2009. By my estimations, these seven players could cost the team an additional $12 million next year. Juan Rivera and Ervin Santana have contracts that will jump their salaries by $1M and $2.2M, respectively, in 2010. These increases amount to approximately $13M (net of the Kazmir/Escobar commitments) and the run-offs $40M, meaning the Angels have roughly $27M to re-sign current players and/or pursue free agents without boosting payroll beyond the 2009 level.

If owner Arte Moreno is willing to get back to the 2008 total of nearly $120 million, then general manager Tony Reagins would have more than $32M to work with this off-season. Half of this available money will need to go to Lackey should the Angels wish to keep their ace starter. The other half could be split between Abreu and Figgins although both players are likely to seek more than $8M each.

Put me in charge and I would stick to the 2/$16M offer the Angels reportedly made Abreu earlier this month. Yes, he was a bargain this year but that was a function of the market and is neither here nor there as it relates to 2010. If that offer works, great. If not, I'm OK with letting him go. The Angels can redirect that money elsewhere.

Despite Figgy's value this past year, I'm not paying a soon-to-be 32-year old for peak offensive and defensive performance that is unlikely to hold up over a three- or four-year contract. I'd like to have him back but only at 3/$27M. If Figgins can get a better contract from, say, Kenny Williams and the Chicago White Sox (who may be re-thinking an aggressive offer after watching Chone implode during the postseason), then he should go for the riches. Anyway, I think it's high time that the Angels finally give Brandon Wood the opportunity to play everyday. Should Wood flop, then the Halos can turn to Maicer Izturis at the hot corner.

As for Guerrero, I would only be interested on a short-term deal and on the cheap. Call it a Bobby Abreu 1/$5M "take it or leave it" agreement. The fact that Vladdy can no longer run or play defense limits his options and it's my belief that the number of suitors will be few and far between.

If everybody agrees to these terms, that means the Angels would need to shell out about $38 million for their services in 2010. In the meantime, I would want to be in the hunt for Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, but I would not be willing to give the latter anywhere close to the Mark Teixeira-type contract that agent Scott Boras envisions. As was the case with Tex, Moreno is unlikely to get into a bidding war for Holliday and allow negotiations to drag on throughout the winter. I don't foresee the Angels offering Holliday more than a Torii Hunter 5/$90M type deal. Depending on the appetite of the St. Louis Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, New York Mets, and perhaps the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants, that may or may not work.

Lastly, I would go after Nick Johnson if Guerrero leaves. He could serve as the club's designated hitter and backup first baseman. Johnson would give the Angels a younger version of Abreu. He is basically the same guy without the speed. Sure, the 31-year old has a history of being injury prone, but he was relatively healthy this past year. However, I wouldn't be as aggressive as Dave Cameron so it's quite possible that the Seattle Mariners or some other team would top my offer.

With respect to the lineup, if Figgins returns, he leads off. If not, I believe Aybar can step into that role and give the Angels the same pre-2009 production as Figgy. With Kendrick stepping up, he would be my full-time second baseman and No. 2 hitter should Abreu leave for greener pastures.

Assuming the Angels lose Figgins, Abreu, and Guerrero, the lineup could look like the following if the team was fortunate enough to land Holliday and Johnson.

Aybar, SS
Kendrick, 2B
Holliday, LF
Morales, 1B
Hunter, CF
Johnson, DH
Rivera, RF
Wood, 3B
Napoli/Mathis, C

Manager Mike Scioscia could flip flop Johnson and Rivera vs. LHP in deference to the latter even though Johnson hits lefties just fine.

The bench would include Izturis as the super sub and possible third baseman if Wood doesn't live up to his promise. A combination of Gary Matthews Jr. (when does his contract run out?), Reggie Willits, and Chris Pettit would serve as the fourth and fifth outfielders. Freddy Sandoval could become the utility infielder. Pop in a cheap veteran who can pinch hit and cover for Johnson as a DH, if necessary.

With Lackey, the starting rotation would be about as formidable as any fivesome in the majors.

Lackey, RHP
Weaver, RHP
Kazmir, LHP
Santana, RHP
Saunders, LHP

The bullpen should be little changed, although consideration must be given to Kevin Jepsen as the closer. A healthy Scot Shields could add much-needed depth to a bullpen that was thin at times.

Jepsen, RHP
Fuentes, LHP
Bulger, RHP
Shields, RHP
Arredondo, RHP

Trevor Bell, Matt Palmer, and Sean O'Sullivan could fill the role of the sixth and seventh starters and bullpen insurance over the course of the long season.

I believe the aforementioned roster would win the AL West once again and have an even better shot at the World Series in 2010, all at a cost of approximately $125 million.

* * *

Update (10/27/09): Gary Matthews Jr. has no desire to return to the Angels in 2010.

"I don't expect to be back; it's time to move on," outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. said as he packed his belongings in the team's Angel Stadium clubhouse today. "I'm ready to play for an organization that wants me to play every day. This organization has other plans, and that's OK."

Matthews has two years and $23 million remaining on the five-year, $50-million contract he signed in November 2006. However, the reality is that the 35-year old outfielder is worth no more than about $1.5M-$2.5M on the open market right now, which means the Angels would have to eat roughly $10M in each of the next two seasons if Matthews were to be paid in full.

More realistically, I would expect GMJ and the Angels will wind up restructuring his contract in a manner similar to what the Dodgers and Andruw Jones agreed to last January. As part of the agreement, look for the Angels to trade or release him before the start of spring training. He'll wind up getting the $23M owed to him but it will be spread out over 5-10 years without interest. The new team will be responsible for paying him the MLB minimum of about $400,000 only. Meanwhile, the Angels will "save" approximately $7M-$9M over each of the next two years and this money could be applied toward Abreu, Figgins, Guerrero, Lackey, and possibly someone like Holliday. A win-win-win for everybody concerned.

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Going into the League Championship Series, I was hopeful that one of the three (out of four) possible outcomes would come to pass. As an Angels and Dodgers fan, I wanted to see a Freeway Series more than anything else but would have settled for an Angels-Phillies or Dodgers-Yankees World Series as well.

Three games into the NLCS and two into the ALCS and things aren't looking so good for this Southern California native. Perhaps today will be the beginning of a much-needed turnaround for the locals.

Sensing that my heart leaned more toward the Angels than the Dodgers, my friend Alex Belth asked me last week why that was the case. I responded via email with the following answer.

My Dad covered the Dodgers so I grew up a Dodgers fan. When he went to work for the Angels the year I turned 14, it was hard for me to change my allegiance. I never really did, although I started following the Angels much more closely over the years. I was fortunate to be a Dodgers fan during the Koufax years and an Angels fan during the Ryan years. The Dodgers were obviously much better but Ryan and Tanana (and great seats in the press box or behind home plate) were an offsetting inducement that was hard to pass up.

More recently, I have grown fonder of the Angels, primarily owing to the change in ownership of the Dodgers. I liked the Dodgers when the O'Malleys owned the club. I was not a fan of the FOX era at all and have not warmed up to the McCourts. The constant turnover, including the firing of Paul DePodesta, has rubbed me the wrong way. In the meantime, I believe Arte Moreno and Mike Scioscia are great. The Angels seem to have a style, if you will, and it grows on you as a fan. The fact that the ballpark is closer to my home and easier to get to, as well as into and out of before and after games, is a huge plus, too.

The clincher was buying season tickets (along with three other friends) BEFORE the 2002 season. Having those seats on the club level during that special season and being there for most of the playoff games, including Games 6 and 7 of the World Series (the latter with my daughter) was terrific. I also have a longtime friend who has front row tickets behind the Angels dugout, and I have been his guest many times over the years. Put it all together and it has become much easier and more fun to cheer for the Angels than the Dodgers.

I'll be in those front row seats this afternoon, rooting for Jered Weaver and the Angels to win Game 3 of the ALCS. I'll be the guy wearing the red Angels shirt and hat. LOL.

With a hat tip to Alex, former Yankees catcher and current YES analyst John Flaherty provided the following take on Weaver this morning:

Weaver could be the ace of this staff in that he has the best stuff overall. Good fastball which is pretty straight. Nice, big, sweeping ’slurve’-type breaking ball and a really good change. What makes him tough is that he really hides the ball so well. He throws across his body so much that he is real deceptive, especially for the righties. His numbers at home are fantastic and the only downside is that he gives up a lot of fly balls – which might be dangerous against the Yankee line up. I like him in that he is confident, almost cocky, out on the mound.

That is a very fair description (although a bit generous in suggesting that Weaver "has the best stuff overall"). Flaherty knows Weaver better than most and about as well as I know him.

Weaver has a much better record at home (9-3, 2.90) than on the road (7-5, 4.78) and has pitched better in day games (5-1, 3.23) than at night (11-7, 3.90), but the extreme flyball pitcher will need to keep the ball in the yard for the Angels to win this game. Unfortunately, the ball travels much better at Angel Stadium during the day than the evening. This fact alone could negate Weaver's favorable home and away splits against a powerful hitting team like the Yankees.

For Weaver to be successful, he will need to command both sides of the plate and change the eye level on occasion (as Jered did when he struck out Big Papi on a 93-mph heater up and in while taming the Red Sox last week). Look for Weaver to change speeds and use his "go to" changeup often against Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and Melky Cabrera, and perhaps even Alex Rodriguez. As Flaherty and the stats say, it's a "really good" one with excellent arm action and a 9-10 mph difference in speed from his fastball.

It's less than two hours to game time. Time to head to the ballpark.

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Thanks to Lee Sinins' ATM Reports, I learned that last Saturday was Jim Gilliam's birthday. If the former Dodgers infielder were alive, he would be 81.

I did a double take when I saw his years of birth and death. Gilliam and my Dad were born in the same year (1928) and died in the same year (1978). Their careers overlapped in Los Angeles as Dad covered the Dodgers from 1958-1968 with Gilliam a prominent member of the team for nine of those years. The Dodgers won the World Series three times during that span (1959, 1963, and 1965). Gilliam was an unsung hero in Game 7 of the 1965 Word Series, making a spectacular backhanded catch on a sharp grounder down the third base line and forcing a runner at third and saving at least one run. As I opined in Sandy Koufax and the 1965 World Series nearly six years ago, Gilliam's fielding gem was one of the best defensive plays in the history of the fall classic.

Toward the end of his career, Gilliam gave Dad his game-used glove, a Rawlings Trapeze six-finger model. While I have no reason to suspect that it was the same Heart of the Hide as the one he used to make that play, it doesn't much matter today as it is long gone. You see, very few people thought in terms of collector's items in those days.

John Roseboro gave Dad his catcher's mitt at about that same time. Dad would use the Gilliam glove when he played catch with us or the Roseboro mitt when he got behind the plate and caught my older brother Tom and me. Gilliam's glove was passed on to me when I needed one (as I was the logical heir, seeing that Tom was a lefty and my younger brother Gary had yet to play Little League). That's me on the left in my Lakewood Colt League All-Star uniform with the Gilliam glove posing for the family camera in our front yard in the summer of 1970.

After reviewing that photo (check out those sanitary socks and stirrups), I now realize that I was more pigeon-toed than I thought. Heck, I may have pitched beyond high school had I not thrown across my front foot like that. As with so many things, if I only knew back then what I know today . . .

Take a look at the front toe of some of the best pitchers in baseball, past and present, be it Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, or Zack Greinke. The front toe is pointed toward home plate in every case.

Oh well, that's why they made — or are making — the big bucks while leaving me in the dust reminiscing about Junior Gilliam and my Dad.

Gary turned the above photo of me into a 1970 Topps Sporting News All-Star baseball card, did the same thing with a Lakewood Village Little League All-Star photo, and gave me those two cards along with a vintage Pete Rose card in a screw-down holder with plexiglas as a Christmas present several years ago. This item, which beats the heck out of another tie, sits on my bookshelf at home.

My brother is not only creative but he is a funny guy. Prompted by an email I sent to my Mom, two brothers, and sister on Saturday morning re the Gilliam-Dad connection, Gary shared the following story: "Twenty years ago today, I was driving to Dallas from Phoenix and I was in the middle of nowhere-ville, Texas, and was listening to the A's/Giants World Series game when the earthquake struck."

I wrote back: "One nitpick. You weren't listening to the A's/Giants World Series *game*. Instead, you were listening to the *pre-game* as the earthquake struck 11 minutes before game time."

Gary immediately responded: "Regarding nitpick...remember, I was in Texas...so it was two hours later (which meant in Texas, the game was in the fourth inning)!" Ha.

On a more serious note, Saturday was also my Uncle Bill's birthday. He died of cancer earlier this year. He would have been 78. An Irish Catholic, he loved Notre Dame and any team that was playing USC (even though his nephew was a USC graduate). He would have been disappointed that the Trojans beat the Fighting Irish, 34-27, for the eighth consecutive year. As it turns out, the last time Notre Dame defeated USC was when we were all together celebrating his 70th birthday at his home in Glendale in 2001.

Tagged Big Bill Donovan in a newspaper photo showing him swinging the lumber 60 years ago, he was an All-City first baseman at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines, Iowa in 1949. My three cousins gave me their Dad's first baseman's mitt as a keepsake upon his death. He may have been using it in this photo dated April 1948, although it's more likely that the MacGregor G154 three-fingered "Trapper" model endorsed by Earl Torgeson is from the 1950s.

Unlike the Gilliam glove, this mitt will never be used again or misplaced. Instead, it will stay in the Lederer or Donovan household forever and a day.

May Jim Gilliam, Dad, Uncle Bill, and their gloves rest in peace.

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The Los Angeles Angels, champions of the AL West, and the New York Yankees, champions of the AL East, are about ready to step into the ring to battle for the American League Championship, or what some refer to as the heavyweight championship of Major League Baseball.

We'll let Michael Buffer introduce the combatants in the ALCS Smackdown, a preview designed to be informative, entertaining, and edgy.

"In the home field corner . . . wearing the navy blue pinstriped trunks . . . with a record of 103-59 . . . from Pelham, New York . . . Jeremy 'Touching Bases' Greeeeeeeen-house." (Jeremy dances around the ring with his arms held high.)

"In the visitors corner . . . wearing the red and white trunks with dark blue trim . . . with a record of 97-65 . . . from Long Beach, California . . . Rich 'Baseball Beat' Lederer-er-er-er." (Rich stares down his opponent while shadow boxing, showing a quick left jab and a powerful right hook, which is not to be confused with A.J. Burnett's curveball.)

"Let's get ready to rumble®!"

The bell rings several times and Jeremy and Rich walk to the center of the ring to listen to the referee's instructions. They touch gloves and return to their respective corners for last-second words of advice from their handlers.

The bell rings and Jeremy and Rich come out fighting with the latter getting in the first jab of the bout.

Rich: Let's be honest, Jeremy, your Yankees can't be too happy that the Angels beat the Red Sox in the American League Division Series last week. I mean, I gotta think everyone was secretly rooting for ... gasp ... Boston to beat the team that absolutely owns the Yankees, no?

Jeremy: I don't think my body could have physically handled the stress of another Yankees vs. Red Sox ALCS. But my question is this: how long does a team's "ownership" of another team last? Under Mike Scioscia, the Angels have seemingly established the ability to outperform their Pythag and to dominate the Yankees. But I like to think this Yankees team is different from years past, and even if Scioscia is still employing his same old philosophy, his players have changed and his team relies on different strengths and weaknesses.

Rich: A club's ownership of another team lasts until they no longer own 'em. Under Scioscia, the Angels are 53-38 (including postseason) vs. the Yankees. The Yankees don't have a losing record against any other AL team during that same span. While many players have come and gone on both sides, there's no denying that Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera & Co. are tired of losing to the Angels.

Jeremy: And the Angels have a total of zero holdovers from their first year under Scioscia. I'm not here to talk about the past, or random samples of ten games a year, for that matter. Let's take a look at some recent history. Since June 24th, incidentally the date when Brian Cashman flew down to Atlanta to rally his team, the Bombers are 67-27. That's historic. Let me repeat that. 67-27, having scored 135 more runs than the opposition over that span. Looks like Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Mo & Co. are tired of losing, period.

Rich: I wouldn't want to talk about the past if I were in your shoes either. As for recent history, I didn't know the season started on June 24th. In honor of your GM, maybe we can date everything in that subsequent period with a BC next to it. This guy sounds more like General Sherman to me. It makes for a good story to say that the Yankees marched through Georgia and the opposition after that although it excludes the fact that the Angels still won four of seven games in head-to-head competition during this "historic" streak. Let me repeat that. Four and three, having scored 44 runs to the Yankees 34.

Jeremy: But you're not denying that the Yankees are the overall superior team. And the Angels aren't getting a pitching advantage until Jered Weaver starts Game 3. Might Scioscia be over managing in an effort to avoid throwing Weaver, a righty flyball pitcher, at the New Stadium? The Yankees actually hit lefties slightly better than righties this year. I think Scioscia might be out-thinking himself this time.

Rich: Well, if Scioscia is over managing or out-thinking himself as it relates to the starting pitchers, I believe it has more to do with not going with a three-man rotation like Joe Girardi. I'd like to see John Lackey pitch on short rest in Game 4 so he can start Game 7 on normal rest. Instead, it appears as if Big John will be pitching in Games 1 and 5 only. However, if there's a lesson to be learned from the Red Sox series (or the Dodgers-Cardinals NLDS), it's that we tend to overestimate the value of starting pitching on a game-by-game basis in the postseason. These match-ups are close enough that I'm not particularly worried about any of them.

Jeremy: You're not worried about Joe Saunders, the fifth best starter on the team, possibly pitching twice in a seven-game series?

Rich: Not really. Saunders was a much more effective pitcher when he returned from the disabled list in late August. In his final eight starts, Saunders was 7-0 with a 2.55 ERA while greatly improving his strikeout (5.3 K/9), walk (2.4 BB/9), and home run (0.9 HR/9) rates. The fact that you've labeled him as the Angels' fifth-best starter says more about the team's pitching depth than anything else.

Jeremy: Well if we're overestimating the importance of starting pitching, then what are we not valuing properly? I hope it's offense, because I know the Yankees have the Angels beat there, too.

Rich: The Angels. The sabermetric community has been undervaluing the Angels for years. As you noted, Scioscia's clubs have consistently outperformed their Pythag, yet this fact tends to be scoffed at or virtually ignored.

Jeremy: So how should we value the Angels? What, specifically, are we missing?

Rich: The Angels have a style, a brand of baseball that differentiates them from the masses. Dare I say they manufacture runs as well as anybody else? They apply pressure on the opposition by putting the ball in play and running the bases aggressively, including stealing bases at opportune times and going from first to third and second to home on a single more often and at a higher rate than any other team. I find it interesting that the Angels ranked 3rd in OBP and 21st in striking out but only 18th in GIDP. Moreover, they placed 17th in BB and 11th in HR, yet scored the second-most runs in MLB. How can that be? If you want to lay it all on luck or an unsustainably high BABIP, so be it.

Jeremy: I won't peg that all on their high BABIP. But I think the Yankees can do a good job of shutting down their manufacturing of runs. Chone Figgins, who represents a very significant share of those Angel advantages you're referring to, will have to face lefties in two-thirds of his plate appearances, and he's hit .246/.325/.305 against southpaws this year. As lefties, CC Sabathia and Pettitte also do good jobs shutting down the running game, and when A.J. Burnett is on the hill, hopefully Jose Molina will be back there to cut off Angel baserunners. And by the way, the Angels did lead the league in those extra base taken stats you cited, but they were also first in outs on bases. Baseball Prospectus' baserunning metric puts it all together and has them at only a run above average this year.

Rich: Sabathia and Pettitte are 0-4 in five starts with a combined ERA of 7.06 against the Angels this year. As for shutting down the running game, the Angels stole five bases in seven attempts against these two lefties. Figgins is 10-for-34 with six walks in his career vs. CC and AP. As for Molina, you'll be giving up a lot more on offense than you'll be gaining on defense whenever he starts. You do realize that he was the Angels' third-string catcher for 6 1/2 years, right?

Jeremy: Did you see CC and Pettitte pitch last week? 15 strikeouts to one walk combined. I'd love it if the Halos tested the historic batter-pitcher matchups and batted Chone leadoff.

Rich: Oh, Figgy will lead off against CC and Pettitte, for sure, as well as vs. AJ. You can take that to the bank. He batted first in all 158 games he played. The splits haven't been quite as pronounced in years past, but you're correct in noticing that he's much more effective hitting from the left side than the right. That said, he's performed well against the two southpaws that matter most in this series and is 5-for-12 with two extra-base hits vs. your other starting pitcher. For those of you who are scoring at home, that's 15-for-46 with 6 BB vs. the Big Three. But, hey, everything but the Yankees' $200+ million payroll is just a small sample size. Out of curiosity, do you know if the Yankees are close to signing Jason Bay or Matt Holliday in time for the League Championship Series?

Jeremy: Don't need them. But I've heard John Lackey's wife has her heart set on New York.

Rich: No, that was Mark Teixeira's wife. The Teixeiras are from the east coast. Lackey, on the other hand, is from Texas. Moreover, he and his wife live in Newport Beach. I don't see them giving up that lifestyle for the Big Apple unless, of course, the difference in money is gargantuous. You know, like the Yankees' and Angels' payrolls. The Yanks pay Tex $20 million per season and the Halos pay Kendry Morales $600,000 for almost the same production. Go figure.

Jeremy: I wouldn't expect the same production from them this series. Like Figgins, Morales struggles hitting right-handed. Teixeira, on the other hand, if you found a hole in his game last year, I'd love to hear it. Only a .455 wOBA and 6.3 UZR in 54 games while with the Angels.

Rich: Teixeira can flat out rake. I would have loved it had he stayed with the Angels. But he didn't and we move on. Turning first base over to Morales hasn't been such a bad thing though and freeing up money to sign Bobby Abreu (1 x $5M) and Juan Rivera (3/$12.75M) on the cheap has worked out just fine. As for turning Morales and Figgins around, that brings Howie Kendrick (.351/.387/.532 since his recall on the Fourth of July) off the bench and leaves Torii Hunter (.336/.400/.578 vs. LHP) and Rivera (.333/.385/.645) licking their chops. Bring those lefties on.

Jeremy: I find Abreu and Rivera are a very interesting contrast of players. Rivera hits for power but can't get on base, while Abreu has lost his power but still finds his way to first. Rivera posts great defensive numbers. Abreu, not so much. But oddly, Rivera dogs plays non-stop and Abreu does nothing but hustle.

Rich: That fits. The Angels are a well-balanced ballclub. "What makes them tough is they hit, they pitch, they run, they steal, they play defense, good bullpen, good closer, good manager. I think that pretty much wraps it up." Hey, those aren't my words. Your captain said that. Not me.

Jeremy: I'm shocked, shocked to hear Derek Sanderson Jeter say something generic and diplomatic.

Rich: Yeah, he's a really swell guy. I can't wait to hear Tim McCarver slobber all over himself. Thank goodness, FOX only shows Timmy in the booth from the waist up.

Jeremy: But how about all those gritty Angels who play the Angels' brand of baseball? Thank goodness I mute my TV every time the Angels execute a sacrifice bunt. And the Rally Monkey. The horror.

Rich: Ahh, you're just jealous. However, I feel for you as I know it's tough to root for a slo-pitch softball team. Maybe the next New Yankee Stadium can be a real ballpark.

Jeremy: In slo-pitch softball, there's a limit on the amount of homers that can be hit. For this Yankees team, I don't know. And didn't Sky Andrecheck show that teams tend to benefit from playing their home games in quirky parks? I don't see why anybody should apologize for the Yankees taking advantage of their new digs.

Rich: Well, Jeremy, the smackdown is about to end and the showdown is about to begin. There's not much more I can say at this point other than the Angels and Yankees are not only playing for the right to represent the AL in the World Series but perhaps for the Team of the Decade. May the best team win.

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Five days into the postseason and only the Colorado Rockies-Philadelphia Phillies Division Championship Series remains in doubt. The other three series concluded on Saturday and Sunday with the Dodgers, Angels, and Yankees sweeping their opponents.

Major League Baseball and FOX must be thrilled, knowing that three of the four finalists are from the Los Angeles and New York markets. I guess it could be better if the Mets were still playing but this is about as good as it gets otherwise (with apologies to Red Sox and Cubs fans). If the Dodgers win the NLCS, it will mean either the first Freeway Series ever or the 12th World Series matchup between the team formerly from Brooklyn and the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have won eight of the previous 11 World Series clashes between these two titans.

While a Dodgers-Angels World Series may not optimize interest on the east coast, it would likely outdraw the Bay Bridge Series between the San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's in 1989. Twenty years ago, an earthquake before Game 3 caused a ten-day disruption in play. Despite the delay, the World Series ended on October 28 as the A's swept the Giants with San Francisco becoming the first team never to hold a lead at one point during the Series.

If everything goes swimmingly this year, the World Series won't end until November 1, at the earliest. It could last as late as November 5 should the Series go seven games. For weather's sake (and for other reasons), I'm rooting against a Yankees-Rockies duel that won't be decided until after Halloween.

In the meantime, there is at least one lesson to be learned from the Division Championship Series. The teams with the best starting pitchers don't necessarily win these things — even if they sport two Cy Young Award candidates (as St. Louis did with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright) or two No. 1s (like Boston's Jon Lester and Josh Beckett). Not only did the Cardinals and Red Sox lose their respective series, they didn't win a single game. Zero. Zilch. Nada. None. Instead, it was three and done for both of these clubs.

Look, I'm as guilty as the next guy in perhaps paying more attention to the top two starters than other factors, including home field advantage. I mean, I picked the Redbirds and Sox to beat the Dodgers and Angels, respectively, in five games. In our NLDS roundtable, I wrote, "My heart and even my mind says Dodgers, but I'm a sucker for the top-heavy Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter/Wainwright fearsome foursome." You might say I was overly enamored with the big names here. Shame on me.

I'll also plead guilty to choosing St. Louis and Boston partly as a hedge against my hometown teams losing. While I'm usually not the type to worry about sticking my neck out, I figured that I would be happier about the Dodgers and Angels winning than losing my predictions. That said, I still feel as if there is an important takeaway from these series. Do not overestimate (or underestimate) the strength of the starting pitchers in a Division or League Championship Series or, for that matter, a World Series. Especially based on names or reputations.

While Carpenter and Wainwright ranked third and sixth in the NL in Fielding Independent Pitching ERA (commonly referred to as FIP), Clayton Kershaw was FIFTH.

Over in the AL, Lester and Beckett finished with the fifth- and seventh-best FIPs but John Lackey and Jered Weaver placed ninth and 13th among the 30 qualified pitchers. The differences just weren't all that great. Lester's FIP for 2009 (3.15) was just over a half run better than Lackey's (3.73) while Beckett's (3.63) was slightly less than a half run lower than Weaver's (4.04).

Although beneficial, a half run per nine innings isn't insurmountable. Remember, FIP doesn't account for team defense, much less hitting and running the bases. If run prevention is 50% of the equation, pitching might be approximately 33% of the overall total. Put another way, a team can overcome a half run from pitching inferiority via hitting, baserunning, and team defense, not to mention the home field advantage that the Dodgers and Angels both held in the Division Championship Series.

I love pitching prowess. However, we shouldn't lose perspective on how tight the disparities may be as well as the other factors that impact run prevention and creation. Lastly, we should also be aware that a certain level of randomness always plays a part in such a short series.

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The National League Division Series between the St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) and Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) matches two of the most storied franchises in the history of baseball. The NL Central titleist vs. the NL West champ.

The Redbirds, who lead the all-time series 1063-1030, won five out of seven this season and four of six last year. The Dodgers, in fact, have lost 14 of their last 17 games in St. Louis.

I grew up a Dodgers fan and was surprised to learn that the team's back-to-back division titles in 2008-09 were the first since 1977-78. The Bums lost the World Series both years to the Yankees but won it all in 1981 and 1988. The Cardinals, meanwhile, captured the World Series in 2006 and could tie the Red Sox for the most world championships this decade if they can prevail in 2009.

To preview the St. Louis-Los Angeles series, let's turn to Dave Allen, Sky Andrecheck, Jeremy Greenhouse, Chris Moore, Patrick Sullivan, and yours truly of the Baseball Analysts staff.

Rich: Similar to the other NLDS roundtable, let's analyze each team's hitting, pitching, and defense to determine which side should have the edge in this series. When it comes to hitting, the stats favor the Dodgers slightly. But, then again, LA doesn't have Albert Pujols on its side.

Dave: The two most important things to producing runs are not making outs and hitting for power. The Dodgers do the first really well (best OBP in the NL) and the second surprisingly poorly (in the bottom third of the NL). James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, and Russell Martin all experienced fairly signifcant drops in their power this year (as measured by ISO).

Jeremy: Loney and Martin have been humongous disappointments this year. But what Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier lack with their gloves, they more than make up for with their bats, leading the Dodgers to the top of the NL in OBP as Dave pointed out.

Sky: This is a good, solid, all-around offense as there's not really a weak spot in this lineup. The Rafael Belliard and Jim Thome pickups should help off the bench as well.

Sully: It's a good unit but also one that slugged .332 over the last two weeks of the season. They need to re-heat.

Rich: I think the key to the Dodgers offense is whether we see the Manny of old or an old Manny. There is a peretty big difference between the two. He may have matched up well with Albert last year but not so much this time around.

Jeremy: Yeah, that Pujols guy. He's good.

Sky: There's a lot to like about this offense and, of course, the big reason is Pujols. I think commentators have made too much of the addition of Matt Holliday. Yeah, he's been awesome, but how long can you expect that to continue? Meanwhile, Pujols is going to hit no matter who's behind him. Great pickup, but not the single reason that the Cardinals have excelled in the second half.

Sully: There is no more fearsome duo heading into the playoffs than Pujols and Holliday and beyond that pair, the Cards don't have a hole in their lineup. Don't let the pedestrian season-long totals fool you. The personnel has turned over, and the St. Louis offense is formidable.

Dave: Holliday complements Pujols nicely. But Rick Ankiel, and to a lesser extent Ryan Ludwick, have disapointed after solid offensive contributions last year.

Rich: Let's turn the discussion over to the prevention of outs with a focus on the starting pitchers, relievers, and the fielders.

Skyy: I think the postseason format favors the Cardinals, with two dominant starting pitchers. That said, I do think that Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter have pitched over their heads a bit as their numbers are quite a bit better than their career stats.

Chris: Wainwright and Carpenter will pitch three of the five games; that will be a lot of innings in the hands of Cy Young candidates. I think two of the three games will be dominated by Wainwright and Carpenter, but that it won’t be enough because St. Louis doesn’t have the offense to back it up.

Dave: Things went about as well as anyone could have hoped for St Louis' starting pitching. Carpenter returned to ace form after effectively two lost years. Wainwright continues to improve (adding more strikeouts and groundballs) as one of the game's top pitchers. And Joel Pineiro somehow found a way to stop issuing both walks and fly balls. As a whole, the Cardinals get the second most grounders of any starting rotation. Wainwright, Carpenter and Pinero lead the way, all north of 50% GB/BIP.

Sully: How about Pineiro in 2009? I know much of the talk will center on Carpenter and Wainwright, but Pineiro's 3.89 K/BB ratio leads the St. Louis starters this season.

Jeremy: I'm concerned with Pineiro's lack of ability to miss Dodger bats. However, the Dodgers do struggle against groundball pitchers.

Rich: The Dodgers didn't have any trouble missing bats this year.

Jeremy: That's right, Rich. For the first time since 2000, the Cubs did not lead the majors in strikeouts. That honor belonged to the Giants, but the Cubs and Dodgers tied for second. I think I'm in the minority, but I'd take Clayton Kershaw/Chad Billingsley over Chris Carpenter/Adam Wainwright. I love me the strikeouts.

Rich: Yes, Jeremy, that's a contrary position for sure. But who knows if Billingsley will even get a start this series? Joe Torre has decided to go with Vicente Padilla in Game 3. Boy, that would be awfully embarrassing if the ace of the staff heading into the season didn't get a call in the postseason.

Dave: Run prevention is the name of the game for the Dodgers. Their starters are second to only the Braves in ERA (3.58). They are strong one to four with Randy Wolf, Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Billingsley all owning a FIP below 4.

Sky: I'd say LA's rotation goes six deep. Too bad for them it's only a five-game series. And Wolf is going twice. The Dodgers had a great regular season staff, but it's not necessarily going to translate in the playoffs.

Sully: It's as fascinating a mix as there is in the playoffs. Kershaw is a promising youngster who may be outpiching his peripherals. Padilla has been solid since joining the club. Game 1 starter Wolf has been way better than many realize, while Billingsley has struggled down the stretch. Stay tuned.

Rich: I think all of us would agree that the Dodgers have a fairly significant advantage as far as the bullpens are concerned, no?

Dave: The Dodgers lead the league in reliever ERA by a healthy margin (3.14 with the Giants the closest at 3.49). Jonathan Broxton leads the league in K/9 with 13.5 and is the first pitcher since Brad Lidge in 2005 to have greater than 13 K/9.

Jeremy: While the Dodgers paced the league by a fair margin in bullpen ERA, not one of their relievers has a decent walk rate. As such, that could get them in hot water when Broxton's not striking everybody out.

Chris: The one aspect I’m looking forward to most is watching LA's bullpen go to work. Ronald Belisario should line ‘em up and mow ‘em down.

Sully: Torre has no shortage of reliable options in his bullpen. How he deploys them will be something to watch.

Sky: I agree, Sully. Torre could put some of those leftover starters in the bullpen, too. I love Broxton closing and George Sherrill, Belisario & Co. setting up, the late innings advantage is going to LA big time.

Jeremy: The Cardinals have a lot of options, and Tony La Russa isn't afraid to seemingly use all of them at once. Ryan Franklin's a solid closer, Trever Miller's a great lefty, Jason Motte can get strikeouts, and Blake Hawksworth and Dennys Reyes can get grounders.

Sky: Franklin has been lights out this year. Unfortunately for the Cards, he too is in over his head. His FIP is 3.31, betraying his sub-2.00 ERA. I still do like the Cardinals pen though, as Kyle McClellan, Miller, and Reyes are serviceable relievers.

Dave: Franklin has succeded as a closer on the strength of low BABIP and HR/FB and in spite of a K/BB ratio below 2. It seems relief pitchers might have a little more control over these numbers than starters, and Franklin has had a low BABIP throughtout his career. But his 3.2% HR/FB is way out of line with his career total.

Sully: The Cards bullpen has to be a question mark heading into the post-season, especially given the way Franklin has faltered down the stretch. Will La Russa introduce America to Motte? He may have to in a big way for St. Louis to make a run.

Rich: Which team catches and throws the ball better?

Dave: The Hardball Times loves the Dodgers defense, calling them the best in the NL, 60 runs above average. But UZR at Fangraphs sees it as slightly below average.

Rich: Hmm...

Jeremy: What a disaster that would be if Torre plays Ronnie Belliard at second over Orlando Hudson. They have a terrific infield defense and ugly outfield defense but, fortunately for the Dodgers, the Cardinals as a team have a slight propensity to hit the ball on ground.

Sky: If the infield defense is a plus, outfield defense is a minus in my opinion.

Sully: Did you know that Rafael Furcal had another strong season? Yes, defense matters.

Dave: With so many ground ball pitchers, infield defense is espically important to the Cards. That makes it all the more rash that they moved Skip Schumaker from OF to 2B before the season. UZR says he has played below average, but not horribly so, -6 runs per 150 innings.

Jeremy: Schumacher's a liability at second base, but he's surrounded by plus fielders in Pujols and Brendan Ryan. Pineiro's a really solid fielder, and Yadier Molina's a good receiver too, and we too often neglect pitcher and catcher defense.

Sky: Not only can Pujols hit, but he's also a GG-caliber first baseman. Simply an amazing player.

Sully: It's a mixed bag for the Cards but as a unit they're pretty good. However, they fall short of the Dodgers defenders. Holliday and Schumaker may not win Gold Gloves anytime soon, but with standout youngsters like Ryan and Colby Rasmus, they more than hold their own.

Rich: OK, it's time to make our guesses... err, predictions. Who'da you like in this series?

Sky: The teams seem evenly matched on paper, but I think there are too many Cardinals playing over their heads this year....they've gotta come back to earth at some point. I predict it will happen this series. Dodgers in 5.

Jeremy: I agree with Sky. Dodgers in 5.

Dave: I'm going to go you one better. Dodgers in 4.

Rich: Wow, Dave's not afraid to make these bold calls. He picked the Rockies in 4 in the other NLDS.

Chris: I like the Dodgers in 4 as well.

Sully: I'll take the Dodgers over the Cardinals over the long haul but it's hard to bet against the Cardinals, who feature the two best starting pitchers in the National League post-season. St. Louis in 4.

Rich: This is a tough one for me. My heart and even my mind says Dodgers, but I'm a sucker for the top-heavy Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter/Wainwright fearsome foursome. I'll be different and say Cardinals in 5.

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The National League Division Series between the Colorado Rockies (92-70) and Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) matches the wild card team against the club with the second-best record in the league. But this series is much more than that. It also pits the hottest team in the NL vs. the defending World Series champions.

The last time these two teams met in the postseason was in 2007 when the red-hot Rockies swept the NL East champs. Colorado tanked the following year while Philadelphia bounced back to win its first world title since 1980.

Who will prevail this year? The World Series representative from the NL in 2007 or 2008?

To preview the Colorado-Philadelphia series, let's turn to Dave Allen, Sky Andrecheck, Jeremy Greenhouse, Chris Moore, and yours truly of the Baseball Analysts staff.

Rich: All of us know that almost anything can happen in a short series, especially one between two quality teams like the Rockies and Phillies. With that caveat in mind, I'd like to examine the strengths and weaknesses of each team's hitting, pitching, and defense to determine which side should have the edge in this series. For starters, how do the offenses match up?

Dave: The Rockies are a three-true-outcomes offense, leading the majors in K/9 and BB/9 and ranking second to only the Phillies in number of HRs in the NL.

Jeremy: Yes, the Rockies lead the league in both walk percentage and strikeout percentage. They also have a decent amount of pop, ranking fifth in the Majors in ISO and HR/FB. It should be interesting because Philadelphia's pitchers have the league-worst groundball rate.

Dave: Good point, Jeremy. The GB per ball in play for the Phillies starters is under 40%. This could play a big role in a series played in two of the most HR friendly parks.

Sky: Well, Dave, with the humidor at Coors, we don't see the crackerjack numbers there anymore. They've got a decent offense with a great hitting outfield but it's largely lefty dominated, which may prove to be unfortunate given the matchup.

Dave: The Phillies haven't had any trouble scoring runs. They had four guys with more than 30 HRs, but what happened to Jimmy Rollins? He never took many walks and now that his BABIP fell out from under him he had a sub-.300 OBP this year.

Sky: Philadelphia's offense is star-laden, for sure. Like Dave, I wonder if Rollins can regain some of his form or will he continue to slump as he has all year? His offensive production has always been overrated, but he's probably better than he's shown this year.

Rich: Rollins has earned his offensive reputation more for his counting numbers than anything else. While the 2007 NL MVP has made over 500 outs in each of the past three seasons, his supporters point to the 100 runs he scored this year as well as the 43 doubles, 21 home runs, 31 stolen bases, and even the 77 runs batted in from the lead-off spot as measures of his so-called greatness. A player can put up a lot of big numbers when he gets 725 opportunities in a single season as Rollins did this year.

Jeremy: Speaking of steals, the Phillies, renowned for their power, have actually excelled on the bases with 119 SB to 28 CS and a MLB low 90 double plays.

Chris: I focus on pitching, and this series doesn’t do much for me. I don’t believe that the pitches J.A. Happ throws deserve a sub 3.0 ERA. If Charlie decides to start Pedro Martinez instead (not a bad idea in my mind), Phillies fans should start chanting “Pull him! Pull him!” well before pitch #100.

Sky: Will Manuel reveal his plan already? Happ's probably better than Martinez at this point. But he can also go out of the bullpen more easily and gives the club a much needed lefty reliever. If I'm managing the Phillies, Martinez starts Game 4.

Jeremy: The Phillies boast a whole lot of lefties in Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and possibly Happ, and the Rockies have OPSed 26 points worse against lefties than righties.

Rich: With Brad Lidge struggling all year long, how would you describe Philadelphia's bullpen?

Sky: Shoddy. That's why they need Happ out there. How much confidence will they have in Lidge? It will take some stones to run him out there for saves in the playoffs. Reminds me of a certain 1993 closer....

Jeremy: I can't wait to see Lidge's projections for next year. This is the first year that he's had poor peripherals, which is scary, but he still is a useful part of the bullpen. I do think Ryan Madson is the better pitcher.

Dave: Over at FanGraphs, I wrote a little bit about Lidge's struggles. The whiff rate on both his fastball and slider has dropped each of the past three years, helping to explain the drop in strikeouts. The Phillies 'pen seems pretty shaky, particularly the back end.

Rich: The uniforms remain the same but the names on the backs have changed since these teams squared off in the NLDS in 2007. Just two years ago, Colorado went with Jeff Francis, Franklin Morales, and Ubaldo Jimenez, while Philadelphia countered with Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer. Only two of these six pitchers are scheduled to start this year.

Jeremy: Jimenez is the most underrated elite pitcher going. Rockie starters led the league in groundball percentage, as the Rockies believe that's the solution to the Coors effect. That's possible, but having a starter in Jimenez who averages a league-leading 96 MPH on his fastball in that thin air doesn't hurt either.

Sky: Jorge de la Rosa is injured, but I don't think it hurts too much. After Jimenez, the Rockies starters are all pretty much interchangable. It's a solid staff.

Rich: I actually like de la Rosa quite a bit. He showed up well in my K/GB rankings last year. He struck out more than a batter per inning this season and was 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA in the second half. I think he will be missed.

Dave: Denver has very good starting pitching, with GBs playing a big role. They give up 51% ground balls per BIP, highest among starting rotations. This will be especially important in a series played in two home run friendly parks.

Jeremy: In case you haven't noticed, Rafael Betancourt has 29 strikeouts to five walks in 25.1 innings since joining the Rockies. He's back. Huston Street? 5.38 K/BB ratio. He's back. Alan Embree's not going to cut it as their lefty coming out of the pen, so they'd be better off sticking with exclusively righties.

Sky: Street and Betancourt are huge for Colorado.

Rich: My take is that the Rockies and Phillies may have the two worst bullpens of all the teams in the playoffs. But I would give Colorado the nod as, in addition to Street, relievers Betancourt, Joe Beimel, Matt Belisle, and even Jose Contreras were throwing much better down the stretch than their Philadelphia counterparts.

Dave: In contrast to the starters, Colorado's relievers give up the second fewest GBs of any relief staff. They offset that by minimizing walks and maximizing strikeouts and have a top three K/BB ratio as a group.

Rich: OK, we've covered hitting and pitching pretty thoroughly. Let's talk about team defense for a minute.

Dave: Over the past three years, Chase Utley has saved an average of 15 runs per 150 games on defense above the average second basemen, according to UZR. That is five runs per 150 games better than second place. He anchors a good Phillies defense.

Jeremy: Troy Tulowitzki is a pleasure to watch in the field, too.

Dave: Adam Dunn gets all the attention, but over the past three years Brad Hawpe has, by UZR, actually been a worse outfielder. Other than him, Colorado fields a pretty good defense.

Sky: I believe Colorado's defense is pretty average with the exception of Hawpe in RF, which UZR says is terrible. However, I'm not 100% confident in UZR assessment of defenders at Coors.

Jeremy: Hawpe has silently turned into a slightly lesser three-true-outcome version of Adam Dunn.

Sky: All that "Raul Ibanez' defense stinks" talk and he's got a UZR of 7.3. Go figure.

Jeremy: Have you taken a look at Jayson Werth's season recently? I mean UZR and +/- still rate him as a plus right fielder. He has 20 steals to 3 caught. A .382 wOBA for the second straight year. I wonder if Phillie fans know he's better than Ryan Howard.

Dave: Surprising stat: Based on the Fangraphs valuation system, Werth has been the second most valuable outfielder (behind Matt Holliday) over the past two seasons.

Rich: How do you see this series playing out?

Sky: The Phillies are particularly suited to shut down Colorado's lefty lineup. Otherwise, the teams seem evenly matched. Phillies are home as well and you can't discount that - especially when the opponent is Colorado. Phillies in five.

Dave: Thanks to lots of power hitters and two of the most home run friendly parks, these two teams are far and away the two leaders in NL ISO (both above .180). Looks like it could be HR-fest. Rockies in four.

Rich: Dave is going for the upset. And in four games no less.

Jeremy: I think the series will go four games as well, but I have the Phillies winning this one.

Chris: Me, too. Philadelphia in five.

Rich: I guess I had better take a stand here. I think it could go either way but look for Jimenez to carry the Rockies to victories in Games 1 and 5. It will be quite an accomplishment if he and Colorado can pull it off as both contests will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

* * *

Be sure to check back later in the day to read our roundtable discussion on the NLDS between the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

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According to a post by David Smith, the founder of Retrosheet, on the SABR-L message board yesterday, "If the Tigers lose to the Twins in their playoff game (today), they would become the first team to lead by 3 games with 4 to play and not win the division (or league). There have been five previous instances of a team having a lead greater than 2 games with 7 or fewer games to play and not being able to finish it off. They are:

Team      Lead  Date      Games Left   Winner
Dodgers   2.5   9-24-1951    7          Giants
Dodgers   3     9-24-1962    6          Giants
Blue Jays 2.5   9-28-1987    5          Tigers
Dodgers   2.5   9-25-1996    4          Padres
Mets      2.5   9-23-2007    7          Phillies

A lifelong Dodgers fan, Smith notes that "you will hopefully excuse me for seeing a depressing pattern here."

While the Dodgers have been prone to blowing leads in the past, it's all on the Tigers this year. For the sake of avoiding infamy, I hope Detroit wins.

On the other hand, my fantasy baseball team is in first place by the slimmest of margins (0.25 points over second and 0.75 points over third), the closest finish in our league's 30+ year history. Our league uses CBS Sportsline and our commissioner was informed in an email exchange by an apparently ill-informed staffer last weekend that the site's fantasy season ended on Sunday, irrespective of makeup games and tiebreakers. I was proclaimed the winner after the final out was recorded in the last game of the "regular" season and received congratulatory emails from several competitors.

However, it all changed yesterday afternoon when CBS Sportsline posted the following missive on its message center.

Tiebreak Game

The Twins and Tigers will be playing a game on Tuesday October 6th to decide who will go to the MLB playoffs. This game will count in our leagues as a regular season game for all scoring types.

Daily leagues will be able to set a lineup for this game, while Weekly leagues will use the same lineup from the final scoring period.

As a result, I'm going to have to sweat it our for another day. There's good news and bad news for me. I have Scott Baker in my lineup. As such, I will pass the team directly ahead of me in innings and pick up a full point if he can complete three innings and jump ahead of the team two above me and record two points for 6 2/3 IP. However, my team's WHIP currently stands at 1.273, .001 ahead of the third-place club. As such, I could easily lose a point if Baker allows too many hits and walks in too few innings.

Stay with me here. Although the team in second place doesn't really have any skin in today's game (unless Justin Verlander or Nick Blackburn pitch in relief), the club in third place has Michael Cuddyer and is close enough in doubles/triples, home runs, runs scored, and RBI that he could gain enough points to leapfrog me if Cuddyer goes off.

Did I mention that even the fourth-place team in our standings is within striking distance and has Jason Kubel and Brandon Inge? He could pick up a point if they combine for two runs scored and perhaps catch me should Baker falter.

If you're not a Tigers or Twins fan, please root for me. I mean, I don't want to pull a Detroit and blow the lead.

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The regular regular season is over. It's now time for the third straight year of a one-game tiebreaker to determine the eighth and final participant in the postseason.

After 162 games, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins are tied for first place in the American League Central with 86 wins and 76 losses. The teams head to the Metrodome for a title tilt on Tuesday. If the contest is like the tiebreakers in 2007 (Colorado Rockies edged the San Diego Padres, 9-8) and 2008 (Chicago White Sox shut out the Twins, 1-0), it means the game will be decided by one run. Heck, even the previous tiebreaker in 1999 (New York Mets beat the Cincinnati Reds, 5-4) was decided by one run.

Hard to believe but the Tigers are looking to win their first division title since 1987. When Detroit lost the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006, the Jim Leyland-led club finished second to the Twins in the AL Central and advanced into the postseason as the wild card team. Minnesota, on the other hand, has won four division titles this decade but lost the tiebreaker last year and has gone 3-13 in its last four playoff series. Of course, Joe Mauer, who led the AL in AVG (.364), OBP (.442), and SLG (.586) this season, didn't perform in those postseason series in 2002, 2003, and 2004.

We're only talking about one game but Mauer could be the difference maker for the Twins this year. However, he struggled against Detroit's scheduled starter Rick Porcello during the season, going 1-for-9 with no extra base hits and only one walk. Tomorrow's start will undoubtedly be the biggest game of the 20-year-old Porcello's life. Look for the first round draft pick in 2007 to try and pound the lower half of the strike zone with his two-seam fastball in the hopes of keeping the ball on the ground as he has done so well throughout his rookie season, leading the AL in GB% at 54.4%.

Scott Baker will head to the mound for the Twins. He is an extreme flyball pitcher, ranking second (behind only Jered Weaver) in the AL in FB% at 46.6%. The righthander succeeds by throwing strikes (7th lowest BB/9 in the AL) and getting more than his fair share of punch outs (12th at 7.42 K/9). Porcello, on the other hand, had the second-lowest K/9 rate (4.42) in the league. The matchup should be an interesting contrast in styles, as colleague Dave Allen describes in the article below.

Meanwhile, not only are the Yankees in the dark about which team they will be facing in the ALDS, but the dates of the two series are yet to be determined. New York, by virtue of having the best record in the league, has the option of picking between a seven-day and eight-day schedule (Wed-Fri-Sun-Mon-Wed or Thu-Fri-Sun-Mon-Wed). The decision is due one hour after NY's playoff opponent has been determined. The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox will default to the schedule that the Yankees don't pick.

It says here that the Yankees will opt for the longer format, which will force the winner of the Tigers and Twins tiebreaker to play back-to-back games in different cities while the home team rests up. That means the Angels and Red Sox will likely play Thursday and Friday in Anaheim, Sunday and Monday (if needed) in Boston, and Wednesday (if needed) back in Anaheim.

If the truth be known, the suspense seems a little bit silly.

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Five years ago, I wrote an article after witnessing via MLB Extra Innings "two of the ten best pitchers in the history of baseball, one of the most underrated pitchers of the past 15 years, the favorite to win this year's American League Cy Young Award, and two of the most highly prized pitching arms in the game." In order, the six pitchers were Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Johan Santana, Zack Greinke, and Scott Kazmir.

Greinke was in the midst of his rookie season and Kazmir had been in the majors less than a month. In the comments section, my former partner Bryan Smith asked me, "Well Rich, we know you've now seen Zack and Kazmir pitch this year. You start a team, who do you want? And...let's throw in Ankiel."

I responded as follows:

I can't have all three? Boy, you're no fun.

I would rank them as follows:

1. Greinke
2. Kazmir
3. Ankiel

Greinke is more fully developed than Kazmir and doesn't have Ankiel's past problems (control and elbow surgery) to deal with. He is the most polished of the three by far. However, Zack's stuff doesn't measure up to Kazmir's or Ankiel's. As such, Greinke may not have their upside but he is more of a "sure thing".

Another consideration: Although only 25, Ankiel is four years older than Greinke and 4 1/2 years older than Kazmir.

I followed up my comments by inviting readers to "feel free to jump into the discussion." More than ten writers, analysts, and bloggers ranked Greinke, Kazmir, and Ankiel with a couple mentioning Felix Hernandez, who had yet to make his MLB debut, and Jose Capellan, who had just made his MLB debut. The rankings are well worth reviewing.

Prompted by an email from Jonah Keri, Rob Neyer revisited the post in a Monday Mendozas a year ago August:

• From the Department of Forecasting: From almost four years ago, this discussion of some of the most impressive young starting pitchers of 2004. The general consensus of the commenters, most of whom are among the more highly regarded analysts on the Web, had them ranked in this order:

1. Zack Greinke, 2. Rick Ankiel, 3. Scott Kazmir. There was also some love for Jose Capellan, who at this moment is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA as a starter in the majors. Hey, this stuff's harder than it looks.

At that moment in time, one could have easily argued that Kazmir was the most accomplished of the three and his lack of respect may likely have been what prompted Jonah and Rob to take a second look at our rankings.

A year later, there is no question that the consensus got it right, at least with respect to Greinke. And I'm happy to report that I was among those who ranked Greinke numero uno. In fact, I wouldn't change my order (Greinke, Kazmir, and Ankiel) at all, nor do I think anybody would dispute these rankings with the benefit of hindsight. However, I'm quite certain that a handful of participants would like to have a "do over."

While I got the order right, I missed on Greinke in the sense that I liked him more for his polish than his stuff. As I stated in the body of the article, "He is an artist in the mold of Greg Maddux. The youngster changes speeds, works both sides of the plate, keeps the ball down, and, most importantly, throws strikes." I did not foresee him increasing the average speed of his fastball by nearly five mph in a matter of a few years nor did I envision that his heater would become the most effective in the game. Add Greinke's filthy slider and changeup and his combination of pitches is perhaps the best among all pitchers today.

Kazmir has been pretty exceptional in his own right, fashioning a 3.85 career ERA while striking out 9.3 batters per nine over 865 innings. Meanwhile, Ankiel hasn't pitched since 2004, throwing a grand total of 10 innings since our discussion five years ago.

There are a few reminders here. Pitchers can get better, worse, or injured. Some like to point to the fact that "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect" (or TNSTAAPP for short). That's fine. While overly simplistic, it warns that there's no sure thing more than anything else. Put me in charge and I would change the meaning of TNSTAAPP to stand for: "There's no sure thing as a pitching prospect." In other words, there are pitching prospects out there. There are just no sure things. Greinke included.

For those with short memories, Greinke led the league in losses while posting a 5.80 ERA in 2005, underwent "social anxiety" and nearly quit baseball, spent almost all of 2006 in the minors and the better part of 2007 in the majors as a reliever, and didn't break through until last year. Zack tried the patience of those who saw great things in him, but he has delivered in a big way with one of the greatest single seasons ever.

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In his Monday Mendozas, Rob Neyer weighs in on Zack Greinke and the American League Cy Young Award on the heels of the 25-year-old righthander's back-to-back 15-strikeout and one-hit games last week.

• After yet another gem from Zack Greinke, Joe Posnanski tweeted thusly:

"Greinke now leads the AL in ERA, ERA+, shutouts, complete games, WHIP, HRs/9 and second in strikeouts and Ks/BB. This isn't that hard."

I'm guessing that Joe is referring to the Cy Young Award, as in, "It isn't that hard to give the award for the best pitcher in the league to the best pitcher in the league." Except we've seen them give it to lots of guys who weren't the best pitcher in the league. Joe shouldn't tweet to us; he should e-mail all his fellow BBWAA voters.

[snip]

What I really want to know is this: Take those eight metrics that Joe mentioned: ERA, ERA+, shutouts, complete games, WHIP, home runs per nine innings, strikeouts, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Actually, let's strip ERA+ and WHIP from the discussion because nobody was paying attention a few years ago ... Take the other six. How many pitchers have finished first or second in all six of them but failed to win a Cy Young Award? (I don't have any idea, but hope somebody can tell me.)

Well, Rob, while perhaps not quite Greinkesque, Bert Blyleven finished first in K/BB and SHO, second in ERA and SO, third in CG, and fourth in HR/9 in 1973, yet finished SEVENTH in the CYA voting. Blyleven was also first in ERA+ and second in WHIP. Despite a body of work that was similar to Greinke's this year, only one writer placed Blyleven on his ballot that season. Yes, you read that right. Only one writer voted for the guy who may have been "the best pitcher in the league." And that writer listed him third.

You see, on the same stats that are now being discussed to highlight Greinke's pitching prowess this season, Blyleven should have finished first in the CYA balloting in 1973.

Here is how Blyleven compared to the five starting pitchers who placed higher than him in the voting that season (John Hiller, a reliever, finished fourth):

This comparison isn't meant to take anything away from Greinke, who has had a fantastic season. Instead, it just goes to show what a great year Blyleven had in 1973. But he never got his due back then (nor in several other campaigns), and the failure on the part of the writers to properly acknowledge Bert's accomplishments during his playing days has continued to haunt him a dozen years into his Hall of Fame candidacy.

The writers only have three years to go to finally get it right.

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Tomorrow not only marks the last month of the current season but the final month of the decade (except, of course, for the postseason in October).

As we wind down the first ten years of the 21st century, which clubs have the best shot of being crowned the "Team of the Decade?" While looking at anything in terms of decades is heavily influenced by the start and stop dates, it can still be a fun exercise nonetheless.

Although there are, at most, only a handful of candidates that can lay claim to the Team of the Decade, there is no clear-cut winner at this time. Interestingly, six World Series champions during the decade of 2000-2009 are in line to make the playoffs this season. As a result, there are five teams that could win a second World Series title and a sixth team that could win its third world championship.

If the Red Sox (2004 and 2007) win a third World Series title this October, then there will be no debate as to the Team of the Decade. However, if the New York Yankees (2000) or St. Louis Cardinals (2006) win the championship this year, then it would be difficult not to anoint the Yanks or Cards as the Team of the Decade.

A case could possibly be made on behalf of the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels (2002) should the current AL West leader capture its second World Series title of the decade. At best, the Angels' margin of victory would be ever so slim over the Red Sox if the Halos were to win it all this year.

Although the Philadelphia Phillies (2008) and Chicago White Sox (2005) could win a second championship this decade, it would be impossible for either club to leapfrog Boston for this honor as neither team would have as many wins or playoff appearances as the Red Sox.

Let's take a look at the pertinent facts involved in designating the Team of the Decade. We'll start off ranking clubs by wins (2009 totals through Sunday, August 30).

As shown, the Yankees lead by a fairly sizable margin over their division rivals. The gap works out to an average of more than four wins per season. In addition, the Bronx Bombers are the only team with three 100-win seasons thus far and the lone club projected to reach triple digits in victories in 2009.

The Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and Oakland A's have each had two 100-win seasons this decade. Each of the top six clubs have had five 90-win seasons. It's easy for fans with short memories to forget the Braves and A's but take a look at how successful they were from 2000 through 2005 (ATL) or 2006 (OAK).

The San Francisco Giants are the only other team to win 90 games in a single season five times. Of note, the Giants performed their feat five years in a row (2000-2004) but have not won more than 76 since then (although the club is on pace to win 89 this year).

For what it's worth, the Seattle Mariners started the decade on fire, winning at least 90 games in each of the first four years (with a MLB decade-high of 116 in 2001).

At the other end of the spectrum, check out the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Baltimore Orioles. All three teams are fighting for the dubious honor of the "Worst Team of the Decade." None of these clubs have made the postseason and only the Royals have had a winning season (2003) during the opening decade of the century.

Next, we'll take a close look at the World Series, pennant, and division champs, as well as the wild card winners year-by-year.

As discussed in the opening, the Red Sox are the only team to have captured two World Series titles thus far. The Yankees, Angels, White Sox, Cardinals, and Phillies (and possibly the Florida Marlins if they qualify for the postseason this year) could win a second championship as well.

NYY (3), BOS and STL (2 each) are the only clubs to appear in more than one World Series this decade. The Red Sox are 2-for-2 while the Yankees and Cardinals have each lost at least one World Series.

The Yankees have won seven division titles, the Braves have six, the Cardinals five, and the Angels, A's, and the Minnesota Twins four each. Boston's four wild cards rank first this decade.

All in all, the Yankees lead the majors with eight postseason appearances during the first nine years of the century. New York is followed by the Cardinals and Braves (6 each) and the Red Sox, Angels, and A's (5 each).

Here is a summary of the qualifications of the leading candidates to become the Team of the Decade.

If Los Angeles wins it all this year, the case for the Angels will be as follows:

• 2 World Series championships
• 2 pennants
• 3 LCS appearances
• 5 Division titles (including 2009)

If St. Louis wins it all this year, the case for the Cardinals will be:

• 2 World Series championships
• 3 pennants
• 6 LCS appearances
• 6 Division titles (including 2009)

• 2 World Series championships
• 4 pennants
• 5 LCS appearances
• 8 Division titles (including 2009)

• 3 World Series championships
• 3 pennants
• 5 LCS appearances
• 1 Division title
• 5 Wild Cards (including 2009)

Thanks to Brian Gunn for providing the inspiration to this piece.

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There were two trades during the past ten months that involved three of the hottest hitters in professional baseball.

November 10, 2008: Oakland Athletics traded Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith to the Colorado Rockies for Matt Holliday.

July 24, 2009: Oakland Athletics traded Matt Holliday and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals for Brett Wallace, Clay Mortensen, and Shane Peterson.

Netting Holliday out of the equation, the A's exchanged Gonzalez, Street, and Smith for Wallace, Mortensen, and Peterson. While Street has been a superb reliever for most of the five years he has spent in the big leagues, Gonzalez and Wallace were the keys to these two trades.

As it turns out, Holliday, Gonzalez, and Wallace have been tearing up their respective leagues. Since the All-Star break, Gonzalez and Holliday rank first and third in the majors in OPS.

Meanwhile, Wallace was ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's Prospect Hot List for the week ending August 20.

Holliday's story is well known by most baseball fans. A three-time All-Star and Silver Slugger, he has a career line of .318/.388/.546. The 29-year-old left fielder will be a free agent at the end of this season and will be seeking at least a four-year contract for well over $50 million in total.

Gonzalez and Wallace, on the other hand, are not household names. At least not yet.

Signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks as an amateur free agent in August 2002 and traded to Oakland (along with Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, Dana Eveland, and Greg Smith) for Dan Haren in December 2007, Gonzalez had a disappointing rookie year with the A's in 2008. He hit .242/.273/.361 and struck out 81 times in 316 plate appearances. The lefthanded-hitting outfielder struggled against southpaws (.188/.207/.247) more than anything else. The 2005 Midwest League MVP showed glimpses of power with 22 doubles in only half a season's work.

The Rockies acquired Gonzalez during the off-season in the hope that a change in home ballparks from pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum in Oakland to hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado would allow him to fulfill his vast potential. He began the year at Triple-A Colorado Springs and earned a promotion to the parent club after putting up a .339/.418/.630 line in April and May. However, Gonzalez failed to hit after being recalled in early June but his torrid second half has helped him elevate his overall rate stats to .287/.356/.539 in 191 plate appearances.

Selected by the Cardinals out of Arizona State University in the first round (13th overall) of the June 2008 First-Year Player Draft, Wallace hit a combined .337/.427/.530 at two levels in the minors last year. He had a higher AVG, OBP, and SLG in Double-A than Low-A, albeit in a much smaller sample size (57 plate appearances vs. 177). He opened 2009 at Double-A Springfield (.281/.403/.438) and was promoted to Triple-A Memphis (.293/.346/.423) in May. Following the trade between St. Louis and Oakland, the lefthanded-hitting Wallace was assigned to Triple-A Sacramento where he has hit .292/.348/.517 over the past month.

Wallace is more valuable to an American League team like the A's where he can play first base or DH than the Cardinals where he was blocked by Albert Pujols at 1B and forced to succeed at the hot corner, a position that isn't ideally suited for a 6-1, 245-pound body. Although Baseball America and MiLB.com list him at 6-2, 205, Baseball-Reference.com has him at 6-1, 245, the same as his college profile at Arizona State. I'm not sure about the loss of that inch, but there is no question about the added weight. In fact, Wallace admitted to weighing 245 in an interview last January. He is very thick through the middle, including massive thighs as evidenced by these videos.

Nonetheless, the youngster (he turns 23 on Wednesday) can flat out hit. He was a two-time Pac-10 Triple Crown winner and Player of the Year in 2007 and 2008. A former UCLA player told me that Wallace was the toughest hitter the Bruins faced in his four-year career, a span that included Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie (boy, the Red Sox sure love those Pac-10 guys), as well as Yonder Alonso in a non-conference series that I actually witnessed at Jackie Robinson Stadium in Westwood a few years ago.

Interestingly, Wallace, who prepped at Justin-Siena HS in Napa, California, listed the Oakland A's as his favorite team and Eric Chavez as his favorite player when he was at ASU. If Wallace doesn't get the call in September when the MLB rosters are expanded, he will surely get the opportunity to play for his favorite team and perhaps replace his favorite player at third base next spring. Depending on how quickly Chris Carter (.335/.434/.570 at Double-A Midland) develops, Wallace could also earn the starting job at first base or as the designated hitter. One way or the other, look for him to make an impact in Oakland next season.

For the record, Holliday, Gonzalez, and Wallace have run into some difficulties the past week. Holliday is just 6-for-33 in his last nine games, including 3-for-19 since fouling a pitch off his leg a week ago today. Gonzalez missed Sunday's game after suffering a puncture wound to his left hand. He is hopeful of returning to the lineup during Colorado's three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday through Thursday. Wallace cooled off considerably this past weekend, going 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and a strikeout in each of the three games.

Some like it hot. Or not.

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In honor of This Week In Baseball, the longest running sports anthology show in the history of television, we bring you news and highlights from around Major League Baseball.

Our "TWIB Notes" begin with the just concluded series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Whereas Boston swept New York in three games at home in April, two on the road in May, and three at home in June, the Yankees got the broom out this time and took four straight from the Red Sox at Coors Field Yankee Stadium (also known as Yankee Stadium III).

The Yankees outscored their division rivals 25-8 en route to the four-game sweep. The victories included a 13-6 pounding in the opener, two shutouts (including a 15-inning, five-hour-and-33-minutes marathon on Friday night), and a come-from-behind 5-2 win on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball in the finale.

New York (69-42), which has now won seven in a row, has opened up a 6.5 game lead over Boston (62-48), losers of six straight, in the American League East. With six more head-to-head games on the schedule, the division is far from settled. The Red Sox play 29 of their final 52 games at Fenway Park (where the club is 35-17), while the Yankees are slated to play 26 of their remaining 51 games on the road (30-25).

Boston, however, is no sure thing for the postseason as it is tied with Texas for the Wild Card berth (with Tampa Bay only 1.5 games back). The Rangers took two out of three from the Angels over the weekend and are now just 3.5 games behind in the AL West.

With a pair of home runs, Alex Rodriguez passed Harmon Killebrew into ninth place on the all-time list with 574. He has gone deep more often than any other righthanded hitter in the history of the AL.

Speaking of long balls, Mark Reynolds has slugged eight HR in the past nine games (including four consecutive) and is now tied for the MLB lead with Albert Pujols at 36. The Diamondbacks third baseman also ranks second in the NL in SLG (.613), third in OPS (.990), fourth in RBI (80), fifth in R (75), and eighth in SB (20).

Since the All-Star break, Reynolds has put up a rate line of .407/.480/.895. Over the course of the season, he has hit equally well at home (.289/.381/.598) and on the road (.290/.372/.628). Other than Mark's MLB-leading number of strikeouts (151, which is on pace to break the single-season record he set last year), there is little to find fault in his numbers. Sure, some people will point to his .371 BABIP as being unsustainable, but do these skeptics realize that he has hit .358 on balls in play throughout his career? Let's just say he's making it work with lots of whiffs.

While on the subject of home runs and strikeouts, Adam Dunn deserves recognition for reaching 30 HR for the sixth consecutive year. He is on pace to hit 44 in 2009, which would mark the sixth straight season of slugging 40 or more. Babe Ruth holds the record with seven (1926-1932).

Adam's team is far from done as Washington (40-72) has won eight games in a row. As such, we can no longer assume that the Nationals will have the first pick in next year's draft, at least not with Pittsburgh (45-66) on an eight-game losing streak and Kansas City (43-68, including 3-9 in its last dozen contests) and Baltimore (46-65, 2-8 in the last ten) stumbling down the stretch as well.

Depending on whether Washington comes to terms with Stephen Strasburg before the signing deadline a week from today, the Nats may wind up with the first two picks in the 2010 draft (No. 1 for having the worst record and the second overall choice as compensation for not signing Strasburg). In the meantime, the clock is ticking as more than half of the first-round draftees have not signed with their new clubs as yet. Look for discussions to pick up this week but don't hold your breath waiting for many announcements prior to the deadline at 12:01 a.m. on August 18.

Question for the Day

Do you believe Strasburg will sign with the Nationals? If so, how much do you think he will get?

Scott Boras is allegedly asking for $50 million while the Nationals reportedly are trying to keep the amount closer to the all-time record of $10.5M that Mark Prior received in 2001.

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I was a guest of Brendan Wiese and Nick Barrale of The Benchwarmers on KFNS 590 The Fan. I also appeared on their St. Louis late night sports talk show in June and July.

We discussed counting stats with an emphasis on the pros and cons of RBI. I mentioned the importance of context, opportunities, and outs.

We should be counting the number of outs. There aren't very many people out there who know who's leading the league in outs or who's leading the league in the fewest outs created. We always count things — hits, doubles, triples, home runs — but we really should be counting how often a player makes an out because a team only has 27 outs; that's the currency of baseball and giving up an out is very costly to a team. I wish we all paid more attention not only to the positive side of counting stats but the negative side as well.

I was also asked about whether players such as Derek Jeter are "clutch" (which is one of my least favorite subjects) and OPS as it relates to positions. The final ten minutes were focused on pitching stats, including strikeouts, walks, and home runs (and groundball rates). Due to the location of the radio station as well as Dave Allen's insightful piece on Friday, we examined Joel Pineiro in depth and the difference between pitching to contact and missing bats.

I like guys who strike batters out because then you don't need any defensive players behind you. But, that said, a pitcher like Joel Pineiro can succeed if he throws strikes, which he throws strikes better than anybody else in baseball this year — he's walking fewer batters than anyone else — and if he also keeps the ball on the ground. He's keeping the ball on the ground about as well as anybody else in baseball this year. Both his walk and groundball rates are career bests right now and that's why he's doing so well this year. But his margin of error is really pretty small. If Pineiro doesn't have his pinpoint control and he gets that ball up a little bit, he's going to be more apt to give up home runs, which he hasn't been giving up at all this year. I believe he's only given up three home runs all season, which is just incredible. But, in years past, for example, he has walked more batters and given up more home runs. So, if he is a little bit off, he's going to get hit because he doesn't throw pitches that miss bats.

While Wiese enjoys and appreciates advanced metrics, his sidekick is a non-believer. After we exchanged thank yous at the end of the segment, Barrale concluded with the following diatribe.

I still say you get a better idea how a guy plays and how a team plays by just watching them. You don't need all these statistical numbers. The only reason why they have them is because people can't see the games and so they try to come up with their own conclusions by just adding and subtracting and dividing and multiplying numbers.

Whatever.

The audio file can be accessed through The Daily Rewind this weekend or by clicking on the play button directly below.

Check it out.

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In a transaction that wasn't consummated until minutes before the trading deadline at 4 p.m. ET last Friday, the San Diego Padres sent Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell.

Although the trade wasn't popular with the San Diego media, I actually understand this deal more from the perspective of the Padres than the White Sox for three reasons:

1. The Friars are rebuilding for the future and trying to load up on good, young arms that can help the club in 2010 and beyond.

2. At $52 million over the next three seasons, Peavy's contract ($15M in 2010, $16M in 2011, $17M in 2012, and a $22M club option in 2013 with a $4M buyout) was a liability for an ownership short on cash.

3. Peavy is currently on the disabled list with a strained tendon in his right ankle and not expected back until late August. The unanimous 2007 National League Cy Young Award winner threw a 50-pitch bullpen on Sunday but will need a few more such sessions and a couple of minor league starts before joining Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Jose Contreras in the White Sox rotation for the final five weeks or so.

Peavy is a fantastic pitcher when healthy but, like an overpriced stock, may not be a good value at this point. He is clearly worth more to a team like the White Sox than the Padres.

In the meantime, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Richard has begun to pay dividends for his new team, allowing one run on two hits over 5 2/3 innings in his NL debut on Saturday. The former University of Michigan backup quarterback should benefit from a change in leagues and home ballparks. The soon-to-be 26-year-old lefthander throws a low-90s fastball with sinking action plus a slider and change, and figures to be a mainstay in San Diego's rotation for the next several years.

Poreda, however, was the key to this deal. A first-round draft pick out of the University of San Francisco in 2007, the 6-6, 240-pound southpaw is a hard-throwing, groundball-inducing machine. He won't turn 23 until October yet has succeeded at every level, including 10 games and 11 innings in relief for the White Sox earlier this season. Poreda has started 48 of his 52 games in the minors and will be given a long look at one of the five spots in the rotation next spring.

The most intriguing pitcher in the group may be Carter, a 6-6, 22-year-old righthander who leads the minors in strikeouts with 143 in 118 innings (10.9 K/9). A project coming out of Old Dominion as a 13th-round draftee in 2008, Carter has whiffed 232 batters in 176 2/3 IP thus far in the low minors. According to Paul DePodesta, his fastball "runs anywhere between 87 and 93 mph" and Baseball America credits him with "a swing-and-miss curveball." He is being brought along slowly and is unlikely to reach Petco Park until 2012.

Russell, 26, was converted into a reliever in 2008. At 6-8 with a mid-90s heater, he is another tall, hard-throwing pitcher. His secondary pitches and command aren't particularly special although his curveball "rates as a plus pitch at times" in the words of Baseball America. He reported to Triple-A Portland and could be brought up to the bigs for a look-see in September when the rosters are expanded.

The Padres have now made two trades during the past month that have landed them seven young power arms, including four that had pitched in the majors prior to their arrival in San Diego. In addition to Richard, Poreda, Carter, and Russell, San Diego added Sean Gallagher, Ryan Webb, and Craig Italiano in a July 5 deal that sent outfielder Scott Hairston to the Oakland A's. Although Gallagher was the PTBNL in that 3-for-1 trade, he is just 23 years old and has already pitched parts of three seasons in the majors. The righthander has a terrific minor-league record (39-17, 2.73 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.5 HR/9) but needs to improve his command and makeup to reach his potential.

In Peavy, the White Sox get an eight-year veteran who is only 28 years old. General manager Kenny Williams pursued him in May but was unable to convince Peavy to waive the no-trade provision in his contract. The righthander could be a difference maker down the stretch if he can get his legs back in shape and regain his arm strength. However, let's not forget that Peavy (whose career ERA is a full run lower at home than on the road) will be going from the NL to the AL and from a pitcher's park (Petco Park) to a hitter's park (U.S. Cellular Field). Think Matt Holliday when he went from the Colorado Rockies and Coors Field to the Oakland A's and McAfee Coliseum.

While it may take two or three years before the Padres are competing for division titles and wild card berths again, management is focused on building an organization with more athleticism, depth, and sustainability than before. With the foregoing in mind, look for the Padres to sign high school draft picks Donavan Tate, Everett Williams, and Keyvius Sampson in the next two weeks and possibly move Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, and Chris Young during the off-season or next summer if the price is right. Fans will need to be as patient as the ownership and front office, but the change in direction is likely to pay off in due time.

(For more on the Padres, be sure to check out Geoff Young's Ducksnorts as well as Friar Forecast and Another Padres Blog. South Side Sox is our favorite White Sox blog.)

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The Society for American Baseball Research meets for its annual convention in Washington, D.C. this week (July 30-August 2).

Known as SABR 39, the schedule includes 42 research presentations by members, including incoming president Andy McCue (American League Expansion of 1961), Mike Emeigh (Bullpen Evolution, 1960-2008), Retrosheet founder David W. Smith (Does Running the Bases Harm Pitching Performance?), Steve Treder (The Value Production Standings, 1946-2008), Chris Jaffe (The Baseball Philosophy of Charles Comiskey), Phil Birnbaum (Do Players Try Harder When a Big Goal is in Sight?), and Mark Armour (A Tale of Two Umpires).

The schedule of events also includes MLB and Negro Leagues player panels, more than 20 committee meetings, a Library of Congress presentation, Retrosheet's annual meeting, an awards luncheon, and three ballgames (Red Sox @ Orioles on Friday night, the Potomac Nationals on Saturday evening, and the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs on Sunday afternoon.

One of the many benefits of being a member of the Society for American Baseball Research (which I originally joined during the early 1980s and returned more than five years ago) is access to the organization's SABR-List Digest, a moderated research and information forum that is circulated via email to subscribers on a daily basis. In honor of SABR and its annual convention, I wanted to share highlights of the SABR-L for the past week.

ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that the St. Louis Cardinals and Oakland Athletics have completed a trade, sending outfielder Matt Holliday in exchange for third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson, and righthanded pitcher Clayton Mortensen.

Shortly after the news broke, Brian Gunn, everyone's favorite Cardinals blogger when he was maintaining Redbird Nation during the middle part of the decade (has it really been four years, Brian?), sent me an email with his initial thoughts and asking for my "more objective opinion." Here is our exchange, which took place only minutes ago...

Brian: Supposedly the Cardinals just traded Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson for Matt Holliday. This is an email I wrote to some friends of mine about my reaction. Any thoughts? (My gut reaction to this deal was very negative, so I might be trying to talk myself into something. I need a more objective opinion.)

As I see it, the pros to the deal are:

1. It makes us better this year (we have a very winnable division, and Rick Ankiel can no longer start)

Rich: Yes, for sure.

Brian: 2. We can sign Holliday long term (he's not that old -- 30 in January, and we don't really have any major league OFers in the pipeline).

Rich: Uhh, maybe (although I don't see that happening unless the market for corner outfielders remains as weak as it was last year). No hometown discounts from Boras. Just check with the Angels re Mark Teixeira.

Brian: 3. Holliday runs and fields well, and he rarely gets injured, so he could age well.

Rich: I would agree with that. He is a good athlete (one of the best HS QB when Carson Palmer was a senior). He is also a good clubhouse-type presence from what I can tell. The latter might be more important down the stretch than how he ages because I don't see the Cardinals signing him longer term.

Brian: 4. Wallace is impressive, but not THAT impressive -- he took a tiny step backwards this year and he can't field and you can't move him to first.

Rich: Right. He can hit, more for average than power. I see him as a .300 type with 20 HR (maybe 25-30 in his peak season). He has big, thick thighs and will be a liability on the bases and at third base longer term. His future is at first base, which was taken last time I checked. However, he could have filled the gap at the hot corner, then moved to first just about the time Albert Pujols leaves STL to don the pinstripes.

Brian: 5. The move placates Tony La Russa and Pujols -- keeping Pujols happy is huge, and keeping TLR happy is also fairly necessary, especailly if you want Dave Duncan to stick around.

Rich: Makes sense on all fronts.

Brian: 6. If Holliday walks after this year, we could get a type A draft pick (which is basically how we got Wallace just 2 years ago).

Rich: Or two type A's, no?

Brian: 7. Mortensen hasn't shown he's any good. (Peterson, I don't know much about, but he does look like he can get on base, and he's only 21, so who knows. Although I don't know why Billy Beane was in the driver's seat so much that he could demand those 2 extra players. Wallace should've been enough.)

Rich: I'm very familiar with Peterson as he played his college ball at Long Beach State. A good average, gap power-type hitter. Could play corner OF or 1B. I like him but am unsure as to whether he projects as a starter on a championship-caliber team, a starter on a second-division club, or as a backup.

Brian: The cons:

1. We gave up too much. We probably could've had Adam Dunn (a better player, despite his awful fielding) much more cheaply, and I doubt the A's were getting any better offers, plus they basically had to move Holliday, so we should've been in more of a position of strength with them.

Rich: I prefer Holliday over Dunn in the NL. I think the latter's outfield defense is so "poorish" that he would be a problem, particularly on a "pitch to contact" type staff like STL.

Brian: 2. Holliday is not a huge bat -- he's never slugged .500 away from Coors (not in any season on the road, and not this season in Oakland).

Rich: I pointed out his good but not great road stats last year and many sabermetricians made a big deal out of his outstanding OPS+ rather than his home/road splits, thinking this was a better way to evaluate him. I beg to differ but what do I know?

Brian: 3. Holliday is overpaid -- important when you consider trying to sign Pujols (plus Joel Pineiro after this season, plus arb to Ryan Ludwick), and with Boras as his agent will stay overpaid.

Rich: Yes, yes, and yes.

Brian: 4. The move might indicate that La Russa, and not John Mozeliak, wears the pants in the Cardinals family -- not terribly encouraging.

Rich: I wouldn't let that minor issue, if true, bother me too much. Mike Scioscia has a say in personnel with the Angels and that's totally fine by me.

Brian: 5. Holliday is about to turn 30 and his defensive stats have been slipping -- perhaps he won't age so well.

Rich: Again, not terribly important in my mind.

Brian: 6. Combined with the Chris Perez/Mark DeRosa deal, this is another sign the Cards are cutting corners on 2010-2015 at the expense of 2009, and I'm still not sure we're good enough to get past the Dodgers or Phillies in 2009 (then again, people have estimated the value of making the playoffs -- in terms of increased ticket sales, etc. -- at $25 million on up, so this could play for itself).

Rich: Yes, an important takeaway. Not the first time either, right?

Brian: All in all, the more I think about this deal, the more I think it could be worth it. I think we gave up more value than we needed to, and I don't think Holliday is quite the player people think he is, but I think it's fair to try to go for it now. I guess the deal hinges on whether or not you think of the Cards as a win-now team (and with Pujols and Chris Carpenter at their peaks, and the window closing on both of them -- Carp b/c he's not the most durable guy, Pujols b/c we don't have him signed forever -- I can see the argument for that) or a team of the future (when you look at Colby Rasmus and our decent farm system and all our rookies this year, I can see some argument for that, too). I suppose I lean a little more toward "win now," which sorta outweighs my reservations about the pure value-per-dollar aspects of this trade.

Rich: Flags fly forever.

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Down 3-0 in the first inning, the Los Angeles Angels rallied to beat the Minnesota Twins, 6-5, in 10 innings last night at the Big A. It was the Halos MLB-leading 31st "come-from-behind" victory of the season.

The Angels, with the third-most wins in the majors and second-most in the American League, have opened up a 3 1/2 game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. The team has won six in a row, 10 of its last 11, and is now 27-9 since June 11 when it was just 29-29 and tied for second place in the division.

The Comeback Kids tied yesterday's game by scoring twice in the ninth inning against Minnesota's closer Joe Nathan, who had converted his last 20 save opportunities and had not allowed a run in 24 appearances covering 22 2/3 IP.

Bobby Abreu drew a walk to open the bottom of the ninth, Mike Napoli was hit by a pitch, and Gary Matthews and Howie Kendrick singled with two outs to produce a couple of runs to send the contest into extra innings. With the score tied at 5, Mike Scioscia sent southpaw Brian Fuentes, his best reliever, to the mound in the top of the 10th — a move too few managers make — to face lefthanded batters Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer, the opposing team's top righthanded hitter. Fuentes got Morneau, who is tied for the AL lead with 24 HR, to pop out; Kubel, who had homered and singled to drive in three runs earlier in the game, to ground out to second base; and Cuddyer to strike out looking in a ten-pitch, 1-2-3 inning.

With Jesse Crain working the home half of the tenth, Chone Figgins lined a single to left, Brandon Wood bunted him to second, Abreu was intentionally walked, Kendry Morales struck out ending his 20-game hitting streak, and Napoli doubled to right center, scoring Figgy with the game winner and his league-leading 75th run.

Call it clutch or call it luck (as Kendrick's game-tying hit in the ninth glanced off Nathan's glove and struck second base), but, either way, the events led to another "W". It's a cliche but the Angels are winning as a team with significant contributions by everyone ranging from veterans like Figgins to youngsters such as Morales, Jered Weaver, and Erick Aybar to newcomers Abreu and Fuentes to career minor leaguers (Matt Palmer), relative unknowns (Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen), and reserves (Maicer Izturis).

What's remarkable is that the Angels not only suffered the loss of Nick Adenhart, the club's No. 1 prospect, in a tragic death after his first start; as well as injuries to John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar that have curtailed up to 30 starts from this trio; but setbacks, most recently, to Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, and Juan Rivera, arguably the three best hitters going into the season.

It's all starting to feel a bit like 2002.

(For more on the Angels, be sure to check out Rev Halofan's Halos Heaven and Rob McMillin's 6-4-2 blogs.)

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Eight of the top 13 home run hitters this year play first base. The position has been known for its power output since the advent of the "live ball" in the 1920s, but it appears to be producing more four baggers among the league leaders than any other year this decade.

Interestingly, there are no designated hitters among the league leaders in HR. Now one might argue that some of these hitters shouldn't be playing defense, but the reality is that there is no DH among the top 18 HR sluggers in the majors. It's even a bit of a stretch to include Adam Lind (20) as the No. 1 HR-hitting DH as he has played over 30 games in left field. You have to go all the way down to Jim Thome, who is tied for 36th in HR with 16, to find the first pure DH. Whatever became of the David Ortizes, Travis Hafners, and Frank Thomases?

Is this a one-year aberration or is there something else at work here?

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"That's one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind."

- Neil Armstrong, July 20, 1969

Where were you 40 years ago? I know some of you had not yet occupied your space here on Earth. And nobody other than Neil Armstrong and Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin had stepped foot on the Moon.

I turned 14 earlier that month and spent that momentous Sunday at Anaheim Stadium where the California Angels were hosting the Oakland A's in a doubleheader. The Angels won the first game, 7-3, and lost the second, 9-6.

My Dad had joined the Angels as Director of Public Relations and Promotions in February 1969. I had only been a fan of the Angels for less than six months when I found myself sitting in what would now be called a suite on the first base side of the press box as the Apollo 11 lunar module landed on the Moon at 20:17 UTC (or 1:17 p.m. for those of us in the Pacific Time Zone).

I don't recall the exact inning when the Eagle touched down on the Moon, but I remember that the public address announcer and scoreboard informed the 17,835 in attendance of this occasion. The event either stopped the game or was reported between one of the early innings during the first game of the twin bill. It was definitely a time for national pride.

While man was making its first visit on the Moon, Vida Blue, not to be confused with teammate Johnny "Blue Moon" Odom, was making his major-league debut that day. A week short of his 20th birthday, Blue had been recalled from Birmingham, Oakland's Double-A affiliate, after excelling in the Southern League with a 10-3 record, 3.20 ERA, and 112 strikeouts in 104 innings.

The teenage sensation allowed solo home runs to Aurelio Rodriguez and Jim Spencer in the first and third innings, respectively, and was saddled with the loss after giving up six hits and five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 IP. Andy Messersmith, in just his second season in the bigs, was credited with his eighth win on the way to a 16-11, 2.52 ERA (fourth in the AL), 211 strikeouts (third) campaign.

Two years later, Blue (24-8, 1.82 ERA) was on the cover of Sports Illustrated en route to the Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards. Messersmith, for his part, went 20-13 with a 2.99 ERA in 1971.

Doug Miller of MLB.com wrote an article today, recalling the historic day, on and above Earth.

About 400 miles south of San Francisco, a launch of a different kind was taking place on July 20, 1969.

There, in Anaheim Stadium, in the first game of a double-header, a hard-throwing 19-year-old Oakland Athletics left-hander from Mansfield, La., by the name of Vida Rochelle Blue toed the rubber in a Major League game for the first time in what would be a storied career.

Blue, eight days shy of his 20th birthday and straight out of Double-A ball, skipping an entire level of the Minor Leagues, says now that he had no doubts when he stepped on that mound.

"Well, I thought I was ready, and the folks that brought me up thought I was ready," says Blue. "So why wouldn't I have thought that way?"

Blue had been following the news stories chronicling the space program, something he still does to this day, having "TiVo'd just about every shuttle launch in the last 10 years," he says.

But as soon as he began warming up that day, throwing to catcher Phil Roof, the significance of the situation hit him with the force of the 100-mph fastballs he threw.

"I was fresh out of the Southern League," he says with a laugh. "The crowd itself was so different. It was the classic deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. As cool and as calm as you think you are, you're really not. You're thrust into a situation you've never experienced before.

"I mean, seriously, before that game, attendance at one of my games might have been 5,000, maybe 10,000. And now it's 35,000. And these were big league hitters. I'd never seen that type of talent before."

Blue would go on to win 209 career games, make six All-Star teams and take the American League Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards in his watershed season of 1971, when he went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA, eight shutouts and 301 strikeouts in 312 innings.

But on that day he was a regular 19-year-old kid.

He lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up five runs -- three earned -- on six hits, including two home runs, in the A's 7-3 loss to the Angels. His career began with an 0-1 record.

"I was a young, cocky kid, and when you're young and cocky, you think you have it all and know it all," Blue says. "I was no different. That was the attitude I had. That's what kids that age do, and I certainly did it."

At some point during the game, Blue remembers, he heard about the moon landing and, for at least a moment, was able to escape the whirlwind of nerves unfolding around him to focus on something bigger than baseball.

Forty years later, Blue says that he's touched to even be asked about that day.

"I just remember it was obviously a great chance for me, and, as it turns out, it was a unique thing to pitch on the day this country landed a man on the moon.

"It's pretty cool and kind of flattering that it happened on the same day."

I returned home from the doubleheader in time to watch Armstrong and Aldrin walk on the moon that evening on our black and white television. My parents had received a color TV as a Christmas present from Walter O'Malley after the Dodgers won the World Series in 1959, a gift that would be strictly prohibited today. They held onto the TV for a few years, then sold it for the latest technology, a Hi-Fi (high fidelity stereo). The TV and the Hi-Fi were both housed in huge pieces of walnut or mahogany furniture, which was the norm in those days.

Things were big back then. Or so they seemed.

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The Baseball Reliquary will induct Steve Dalkowski, Roger Maris, and Jim Eisenreich into its Shrine of the Eternals in a public ceremony on Sunday, July 19 at the Pasadena Central Library in Pasadena, California.

In a press release, Terry Cannon, the Executive Director of the nonprofit organization dedicated to fostering an appreciation of American art and culture through the context of baseball history, announced that Dalkowski, Maris, and Eisenreich "will join thirty other baseball luminaries who have been inducted into the Shrine of the Eternals since elections began in 1999, including, in alphabetical order, Jim Abbott, Dick Allen, Emmett Ashford, Moe Berg, Yogi Berra, Ila Borders, Jim Bouton, Jim Brosnan, Bill Buckner, Roberto Clemente, Rod Dedeaux, Dock Ellis, Mark Fidrych, Curt Flood, Josh Gibson, William 'Dummy' Hoy, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Bill James, Bill 'Spaceman' Lee, Marvin Miller, Minnie Minoso, Buck O'Neil, Satchel Paige, Jimmy Piersall, Pam Postema, Jackie Robinson, Lester Rodney, Fernando Valenzuela, Bill Veeck Jr., and Kenichi Zenimura."

Dalkowski, a resident of the Walnut Hill Care Center in New Britain, Connecticut, arrived in Los Angeles on Friday and threw out the ceremonial first pitch at last night's Dodgers-Astros game at Dodger Stadium. The now 70-year-old career minor leaguer emerged from a wheelchair in front of the mound and tossed a "fastball" that bore no resemblance to the 100+ mph heater the southpaw reportedly threw as a matter of routine back in the 1950s and 1960s.

The closest the bespectacled Baltimore Orioles farmhand came to the major leagues was appearing on a 1963 Topps Rookie Stars baseball card along with three other young pitchers (Fred Newman of the Los Angeles Angels, Carl Bouldin of the Washington Senators, and Jack Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers). With no help from Dalkowski, the quartet recorded a combined total of 38 wins and 49 losses in the majors (with Newman earning 33 of those victories). However, to the extent that this card has any value whatsoever, it is solely due to the legend that is Dalkowski, the inspiration for Nick LaLoosh, the character portrayed by Tim Robbins in "Bull Durham."

Ron Shelton, who wrote and directed the 1988 movie classic, will introduce Dalkowski at tomorrow's induction ceremony. Shelton was a minor league second baseman for the Orioles during the '60s, yet, according to George Vecsey in an article in today's The New York Times, he and Dalkowski have surprisingly never met.

Dalkowski, who has been in and out of hospitals and halfway houses for the past two or three decades, is in town with his once estranged younger sister Patti Cain. An administrator at a hospital not far from the facility that houses her brother (and just a block from the ballpark where he was a high school star and a bonus baby over 50 years ago), Patti is responsible for rescuing her brother in Oklahoma City in 1994 after the death of his wife. She told Tim Hoffarth, a columnist for the Daily News, "The doctors once told us he'd only have a year to live, so how remarkable is it that he's here and has a run of the place? Of course, some days are better than others. Same with me. When he wants to talk baseball, he's still full of stories. But nothing's easy. He's laying down now. He needs his rest."

You can read more from Hoffarth about Dalkowski and his story here and here, as well as older articles from Sports Illustrated (Where Are They Now? Steve Dalkowski by Pete McEntegart and The Wildest Fastball Ever by Pat Jordan) and The Hardball Times (Delving into the Dalkowski depths by Steve Treder). The latter piece includes Dalkowski's year-by-year and career minor league record plus links to several other articles. The Los Angeles Times is scheduled to publish an article by Shelton in tomorrow's newspaper, which I will link to when it is up.

For those of you who live in Southern California, you can meet Dalkowski and Eisenreich on Sunday at 2 p.m. at the Donald R. Wright Auditorium of the Pasadena Central Library, 285 E. Walnut Street. Admission is free and open to the public.

* * *

Update: Although Paul Richards never managed Steve Dalkowski, The Wizard of Waxahachie was Baltimore's field boss from 1955-1961. He handled the "Kiddie Korps," a collection of young Oriole pitchers, including Steve Barber, Chuck Estrada, Jack Fisher, Milt Pappas, and Jerry Walker, during the late 1950s and early 1960s. Dalkowski was born in the same year as Fisher, Pappas, and Walker and was 16 months younger than Barber and Estrada.

The Wizard of Waxahachie: Paul Richards and the End of Baseball as We Knew It by Warren Corbett is available for pre-order. I previewed the book and believe it is a worthwhile read for baseball historians, especially those interested in the teams that he played on (Brooklyn Dodgers, New York Giants, Philadelphia Athletics, and Detroit Tigers), managed (Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles), and served as an executive (Houston Colt .45s, Atlanta Braves, White Sox, and Texas Rangers). Richards would be 100 years old if he hadn't passed away in 1986 in his hometown of Waxahachie.

Competition and conflict marked Richards's sixty-year career, from his first week as a professional player, when the seventeen-year-old may have punched his manager. As a manager, Richards was thrown out of games more frequently than anyone else. In his first year as a general manager, he was threatened with suspension for cheating. He brought the first black players to the White Sox and the first important black players to the Orioles, but several of them denounced him as a racist. In his later years his was one of the loudest and most reactionary voices opposing the rising players' union.

When his catchers couldn't handle a knuckleball, he invented a mitt as big as an elephant's ear so they could at least knock it down. He was the first manager known to enforce pitch counts to protect young arms from injury. Previously undiscovered documents reveal that Richards tracked his hitters' on-base percentages before that statistic even had a name and decades before it became a cornerstone of baseball analysis. He computed catchers' earned run averages years before the sabermetric community thought of it.

Corbett, a contributor to the Society for American Baseball Research's Biography Project headed up by fellow author and Baseball Analysts guest columnist Mark Armour, handles the Richards story in a thorough and balanced manner. The book includes a Foreword by Brooks Robinson and an Introduction by Tony La Russa, as well as a bibliography that cites more than a couple of hundred published works, interviews, and personal correspondence.

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In honor of my nephew Brett, who is playing on the Canadian Professional Golf Tour and finished tied for 39th (in a field of 155) in the Saskatchewan Open at Dakota Dunes this week, nobody came by on the noon balloon from Saskatoon and asked me but...

I returned as a guest last Friday evening on the St. Louis radio station 590 KFNS, also known as The Fan. The show was once again hosted by The Benchwarmers, Brendan Wiese and Nick Barrale. We discussed defensive metrics, including zone ratings, as well as Wins Above Replacement, and the traditional Triple Crown stats vs. rate stats such as AVG/OBP/SLG.

Nick, a former minor league play-by-play announcer, is a bit old school, expressing his skepticism over the more advanced defensive metrics and his preference for a batter who can hit as opposed to those who are proficient at drawing walks. Brendan, on the other hand, seems to appreciate the insights of these newer stats and measurements of player value.

Ozzie Smith, Franklin Gutierrez, Nyjer Morgan, Albert Pujols, and Jim Edmonds were all mentioned.

Speaking of defense, Morgan, who was recently traded from the Pirates to the Nationals, leads the majors in Ultimate Zone Rating. David DeJesus and Colby Rasmus rank second and third among outfielders in UZR. Morgan leads all LF, Gutierrez tops all CF, and Jay Bruce is No. 1 among RF.

Moving to the infield, Paul Konerko and Miguel Cabrera, much to my surprise, are first and second in UZR at first base. Brandon Phillips sits atop the defensive rankings at 2B, Jack Wilson ranks first at SS, and Joe Crede is the top-rated 3B (with a whopping 27.0 UZR/150 games). Fangraphs doesn't list UZRs for pitchers and catchers.

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With all but eight teams having played 81 games thus far, it's fair to say that the 2009 Major League Baseball season is at the halfway point. While the All-Star Game typically marks the end of the first half and the beginning of the second in the eyes of most fans as well as season splits, the truth of the matter is that we've already reached that juncture.

Ten of the 30 teams have played exactly 81 games, the mode, if you'd like to harken back to your statistics courses in high school or college. Twelve have completed more than 81 and eight have played fewer than 81. St. Louis leads the majors with 84, while the Chicago Cubs are tied with Philadelphia and Washington for the fewest with 79. As a result, the Cardinals have five more off days than one of their division rivals the rest of the way. STL has an extra day off at the All-Star break, which I believe to be advantageous plus three more during the "dog days" of August and a couple more during the middle of September.

The Los Angeles Dodgers sport the best record in baseball and, along with the Boston Red Sox, are one of only two teams with W-L percentages of .600 or better. If the Dodgers and Red Sox meet in the World Series, it would be the first time since 1916 when Boston beat the Brooklyn Robins in five games.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Nationals have the worst record and, along with the Cleveland Indians, are one of just two teams with W-L % below .400. The Nats, in fact, are making a run at the .300 mark, ensuring the No. 1 draft pick for the second year in a row. Signing Stephen Strasburg and next year's top draftee (most likely Bryce Harper) is going to cost the franchise a ton of money and make Scott Boras and his clients happy and wealthy (or, in the case of the super agent, happier and wealthier).

If the season ended now, the division champions in the American League would be Boston in the East and Detroit in the Central, with Texas and the Los Angeles Angels battling for the title in a one-game playoff. You could even think of that game as the one that is being played tonight in Anaheim, pitting the Rangers' ace Kevin Millwood against the hometown team's No. 1 this season, Jered Weaver. The New York Yankees would be the Wild Card representative from the AL.

Over in the National League, the division champs would be Philadelphia in the East, St. Louis in the Central, and the Dodgers in the West. The San Francisco Giants would be the Wild Card entrant.

However, with EIGHTEEN teams within four games of the division lead and at least two more in the thick of the Wild Card race, fully two-thirds of the clubs are thinking in terms of October as the season heads into the second half of its schedule.

Let's take a closer look division-by-division:

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Red Sox      49   32  .605  -
Yankees      48   33  .593   1
Rays         44   39  .530   6
Blue Jays    42   41  .506   8
Orioles      36   46  .439  13.5

The AL East is the toughest division in baseball, bar none. There's rarely any debate about this matter most years and there is NO rational argument that can be made against this statement this season. Three of the top four teams and four of the top six in run differential reside in this division. That is an incredible accomplishment considering that these five clubs have played against one another more than a third of the time. By definition, the team that finishes in third place will be eliminated from the postseason even though it just may be the fourth-best club in all of baseball. That means either the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rays will be on the outside looking in this October. (I didn't include the Blue Jays in this mix because Toronto has played the fewest games against its East opponents and, at 7-14, has fared worse than the others in intra-division play.)

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Tigers       44   37  .543  -
Twins        43   40  .518   2
White Sox    42   40  .512   2.5
Royals       35   46  .432   9
Indians      33   50  .398  12

Plain and simple, the AL Central is a three-team race. It's hard to separate this trio. The Tigers have won the most games, the Twins have the best Pythagorean record (45-38), and the White Sox have lost the most one-run games. In the meantime, the Kansas City Royals are about where most expected and the Indians have fallen short of even their biggest detractors this season.

As a side note, Joe Mauer (.389/.465/.648) is leading the league in AVG/OBP/SLG and has been the AL MVP, no questions asked. The 26-year-old catcher has slugged more home runs (14) in 256 plate appearances this campaign than he has in any single season in his six-year career. He is playing Gold Glove defense once again and has walked more than he has struck out for the fourth consecutive year. Given Mauer's age and position, it could be argued that he is the most valuable player in the game although I wouldn't argue vehemently against those supporting Albert Pujols and perhaps even Hanley Ramirez. I know Minnesota fans don't want to read this, but it'll be interesting to see if Mauer becomes Jorge Posada's or Jason Varitek's replacement in 2011 upon free agency. The timing couldn't be better for Mauer, the Yankees, or the Red Sox.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Rangers      45   35  .563  -
Angels       45   35  .563  -
Mariners     42   39  .519   3.5
A's          34   46  .425  11

The AL West is up for grabs this year with only the Oakland A's not having a realistic shot at the division title. While the Rangers have hung in there longer and tougher than most prognosticators predicted, the Angels deserve a lot of credit for overcoming the early-season injuries to John Lackey and Ervin Santana (not to mention Kelvim Escobar's virtual yearlong stint on the DL) as well as the tragic death of Nick Adenhart, the club's No. 1 prospect, after pitching six scoreless innings in his first and only start of 2009. TEX and LAA have similar positive run differentials while SEA has won four more games than its Pythagorean record would suggest, the most in the AL.

With respect to Oakland, it will be interesting to see which team free agent-to-be Matt Holliday winds up on later this month. He could be a difference maker down the stretch for the right team. GM Billy Beane would like to get the equivalent of two No. 1s, which is what the A's will receive if they lose Holliday to free agency at the end of the year.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Phillies     42   37  .532  -
Marlins      43   40  .518   1
Mets         39   42  .481   4
Braves       39   42  .481   4
Nationals    24   55  .304  18

The defending World Series champs sit atop the NL East while the surprising Florida Marlins are making (another) run at a world championship. In the meantime, the New York Mets, winners of just two of their last ten, and the Atlanta Braves are floundering at three games below .500. At 26-15, the Phillies have the best road record in the majors and are the only team in the division with a positive run differential.

With Ricky Nolasco once again pitching like he did last season, the young Marlins could pose a legitimate threat to Philadelphia's hopes of winning back-to-back titles. Nolasco and Josh Johnson (7-1 with a 2.76 ERA this season and 14-2 since returning from Tommy John surgery one year ago) could be as tough of a 1-2 punch as there is in the division and any team with HanRam (.346/.409/.574) at shortstop must be taken seriously. Ramirez is leading the league in AVG and 2B (26) and playing at an acceptable level in the field. In the non-Albert Pujols division of the MVP award, only Chase Utley can give his division rival a run for his money.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Cardinals    45   39  .536  -
Brewers      43   39  .524   1
Cubs         40   39  .506   2.5
Reds         40   40  .500   3
Astros       39   41  .488   4
Pirates      37   45  .451   7

The top two teams in the NL Central are facing off in a three-game set beginning tomorrow night in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun (.326/.409/.557), the NL's No. 1 vote getter among outfielders for the second year in a row, would like management to add an arm or two to the club's pitching staff before it's too late. Meanwhile, the Cubs, Reds, and Astros, and perhaps even the Pirates, are still hoping to make noise in the second half.

But let's take a second to review Pujols' numbers. As my good friend Brian Gunn (the former proprietor of the now defunct Redbird Nation, one of the best team blogs during its reign) told me when we were discussing Prince Albert's Baseball-Reference page, "I frequently get lost there. It's like the Sistine Chapel of B-R pages — not a flaw on it." So true. I mean, he is hitting .336/.460/.739 while leading the NL in games, runs, home runs, RBI, walks, IBB, times on base, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, runs created, and, most importantly, all the stats that measure wins, such as Wins Above Replacement. He's the MVP of the season and is now looking like the MVP of the decade.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Dodgers      52   30  .634  -
Giants       44   37  .543   7.5
Rockies      42   39  .519   9.5
Padres       35   46  .432  16.5
Diamondbacks 33   49  .402  19

While the NL West is all about the Dodgers, the Giants and Rockies are Nos. 1 and 3 in the Wild Card race. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Colorado are 1-2-3 in run differential in the league. At 30-12, the Dodgers are making mince meat of its division foes, yet the five teams are playing a combined .500 in interleague play.

What makes the Dodgers record all the more remarkable is the fact that the team was without its best player, Manny Ramirez, for 50 games (or more than 60 percent of the season to date). LA is winning at home, on the road, during the day, at night, one-run games, extra-inning games, you name it. This is a legitimately excellent team and one that should be favored to represent the NL in the Fall Classic this October, provided that manager Joe Torre doesn't wear out his bullpen (headed by Jonathan Broxton), as he is wont to do, down the stretch.

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"It's a fight, a blow-by-blow verbal battle."

- Vin Scully, June 30, 1959

One of the greatest baseball rhubarbs in my lifetime took place 50 years ago today. The "blow-by-blow verbal battle" occurred between two of the biggest rivals in all sports: the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers, in just their second year on the west coast.

The game was played on Tuesday, June 30, 1959 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The paid attendance of 59,312 was the largest Coliseum crowd since Opening Night when 61,552 fans were on hand to watch the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Dodgers, 6-2, while setting a new attendance record for a National League night game. (Interestingly, the Cardinals and Dodgers had set the previous league record on April 25, 1958 when Stan Musial's first Coliseum appearance attracted 60,635.)

The Giants and Dodgers were in a virtual tie for second place in the National League, 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Braves. Milwaukee had beaten the New York Yankees, winners of eight of the prior ten World Series, in seven games to win the championship in 1957, then lost the title in seven games to the same Yankees in 1958. San Francisco had snapped the Dodgers' seven-game winning streak the night before when Jim Davenport and Willie Mays led off the 13th inning with back-to-back home runs en route to a 6-4 victory in what my Dad called "the most thrilling game ever played in the Coliseum" to that point.

Mays was to be heard from in more ways than one the following night. Batting second in the lineup, the "Say Hey Kid" slugged his 13th homer of the year (and fifth against the Dodgers) in the third inning to give the Giants a 2-0 lead and, according to Dad's game report in the Press-Telegram the following morning, "almost clouted another in the sixth inning, touching off a 10-minute rhubarb. While the fans hooted and hollered, the umpires changed their ruling twice and finally awarded Mays a ground-rule double. Rigney lodged a protest, but withdrew it after the game."

The batted ball was first ruled foul, then a home run and, finally, a double. I'll let Vin Scully, in what I believe is not only his most descriptive call ever but one of the greatest in the history of the game, take over from here.

Scully details the ensuing rhubarb, mentioning, in order, Drysdale, Mays, Giants manager Bill Rigney, third base coach Salty Parker, third base umpire Dusty Boggess, Dodgers first baseman Gil Hodges, shortstop Don Zimmer, first base umpire and crew chief Tom Gorman, Dodgers manager Walter Alston, left fielder Wally Moon, home plate umpire Ed Sudol, and Dodgers Vice President Buzzie Bavasi. (The fourth umpire was Stan Landes. He was stationed at second base and was never mentioned in Scully's call of the rhubarb.)

Although narrator Steve Bailey says the date was May 30, 1959, the incident actually took place on June 30, 1959. Bailey eloquently introduces the nine-minute clip, "Orchids to Vin Scully for a magnificent description of one of the wildest rhubarbs baseball has ever known."

Here is a word-by-word transcription of my favorite Scully call of all time (and, like everybody else, I love how he reported the ninth inning of Sandy Koufax's perfect game on September 9, 1965):

"Drysdale ready and the 1-1 pitch . . . curveball, cut on, there's a high flyball right down the left field line, right on the line, hits the foul pole and kicks foul. That's just about as foul as you can get without being fair.

Willie Mays hit the foul pole and it kicked off in foul ground. Rigney is telling Mays to trot all the way around. Salty Parker and Bill Rigney appealing to third base umpire Dusty Boggess . . . and now they're gonna wave Mays around and here come the Dodgers after Boggess.

If you know the Coliseum at all and you know the girder that supports the screen right down the left field line, Willie Mays hit a fly ball that actually hit that girder and then kicked off into foul territory. At first, Dusty Boggess called it foul but Rigney told Mays to go around anyway. And after Rigney and Salty Parker got into the discussion, Boggess suddenly ruled home run. The Dodgers came racing out of the dugout . . . a firecracker goes off back of home plate like to scare everybody out of ten years' growth . . . and the argument continues directly back of third base along the line. All four umpires along with a heated group of Dodgers . . . and the rhubarb continues about 30 feet down the line.

So Willie Mays, who is normally causing a lot of noise either at the Coliseum or Seals Stadium, has now really set off a bomb here at the Coliseum.

When you look at that girder down the left field line, there are many cables and wires that make it a very tough spot to look at. No doubt the Dodger contention is the ball hit one of the wires to make it foul.

But Boggess is now sticking to his guns. Drysdale is so mad he almost kicked 20 feet of the Coliseum out of the park. Gil Hodges right now is jaw-to-jaw with Dusty Boggess. Gil pointing first with his left hand, then with his right hand. Drysdale appealing to the gods right now. He just wants to holler at anybody who will listen. Don Zimmer is arguing with Tommy Gorman. The other three umpires now leave Boggess alone, and he is in the midst of lions.

Don Zimmer, Don Drysdale, Walter Alston, Gil Hodges, and Wally Moon are blistering Boggess, and Dusty every now and then seems to punctuate a Dodger's sentence by pointing with his left hand to that left field foul pole. At the very top of the foul pole, there are two slanting guide wires. One goes from the top of the pole to the right, down to the screen. And the other one goes from the top to the left, down toward the stands. The Dodger contention is that the ball hit the guide wire to the left and would be foul. Alston and Hodges and Zimmer and Moon continue to appeal. Gorman now tells Hodges to walk away, but Hodges goes right after Gorman. Zimmer will be hoarse in another two minutes. The veins on each side of his neck bulging out like the cable that actually holds up the left field screen.

Boggess sticking to his guns. The Dodgers continue to appeal, but Mays has touched all the bases and will come in with a home run. Gorman, who is the captain of this umpiring quartet, has now summoned Bill Rigney out of the Giant dugout. And both Gorman and Salty Parker are flanking Bill Rigney and, of course, Gorman doing all the talking.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still around Boggess at third. But watching Rigney's reaction, it looks like Gorman is going to call it foul . . . and Rigney is about ready to eat his glasses. Alston has walked away like a Philadelphia lawyer who has just won his case. Rigney slams his hat down and the gray hairs glistening under the lights. Bill is now going jaw-to-jaw with Boggess. Now he kicks at the dirt, hands on his hips, left hand thrown high in the air. Ed Sudol comes in to quiet the Giant manager down. Rigney's left hand, then his right hand up in the air. Now his hat is back on.

So, first the Dodgers appeal and walk away and now it's Rigney's turn to be on the griddle. All four umpires appear to be trying to placate Rigney, presenting their case. The Giant manager now starting to walk around, slamming his hands together, pointing with the right hand, then with the left. Now a big sweeping gesture with the left hand. Gorman comes after him now as if Rigney must have touched a nerve, and Gorman goes chewing right back after the Giant manager. Rigney now goes after Gorman, points with his left hand to that girder. Gorman answers with a right-handed gesture. Rigney bows at the waist with a sweeping right hand. And Gorman and Rigney are really going at it. Boggess comes over and Rigney like a mad traffic cop now with a right hand indicating that all the umpires are mad. Rigney kicks at the dirt, walks away with a hopeless gesture of both hands. Willie Mays comes out. Rigney drapes his left arm around Mays' shoulder and tells him to go to second base, 'I'll meet you halfway and what a riot.'

First it was ruled foul, then it was ruled fair, then the Dodgers won half a case and got Mays to go to second base. As soon as we get the ground rules on this particular play off the back of a batting card, we can pass them along.

Willie Mays hits the loudest double ever heard in Southern California or in the United States, for that matter. Rigney now comes to argue with the plate umpire Ed Sudol. Sudol pointing with his right hand toward the screen. Rigney pointing with his right hand . . . let's say, towards the Dodger dugout. Now Salty Parker comes down, and it's Rigney with his head just jerking a mile a minute, and now Sudol wants to talk to third base umpire Dusty Boggess. It's a fight, a blow-by-blow verbal battle.

Rigney has Boggess on his left and Sudol on his right, and right now Rigney is laying down the law, and the umpires come right back with words and gestures. Salty Parker, third base coach, with his arms folded across his chest, just listening right now. Rigney is concentrating his verbal fire on third base umpire Dusty Boggess. Sudol is now trying to draw some of the wrath of the Giant manager, but Bill wants to stay with Boggess. Rigney now whirls and since Sudol is walking towards the plate, Bill starts to go after him, then turns and goes back after Boggess.

Willie Mays, the cause of it all, at least he hit the ball, standing quietly at second base. Tommy Gorman and Ed Sudol have a meeting halfway between home plate and first base. Boggess has his hands full, with both Rigney and Salty Parker. We will have to wait to get the actual and official clarification. Walter Alston has come out of the Dodger dugout and, in the runway leading back towards the tunnel, he is now talking to Buzzie Bavasi, the Dodgers Vice President.

Rigney is exploding at Boggess so Gorman and Sudol are coming over again, trying to bail out Dusty. Gorman talking to Rigney. Rigney turns and starts to walk away, gives a big gesture with his hands and Gorman comes back with the same gesture. Now, plate umpire Ed Sudol has hollered up to the press box that the Giants will play the ballgame under protest, and it must be announced to the crowd. Listen, here comes the announcement."

After John Ramsey, the public address announcer, informed the crowd, amidst boos, of the protest, Bailey concluded the segment, "San Francisco manager Bill Rigney quickly forgot his protest because Sad Sam Jones pitched a one-hit, 2-0 shutout."

Jim Gilliam had the only hit, a disputed infield single in the eighth inning. According to Dad, "Gilliam's high chop behind the mound was the cheapest of hits, but a hit it was in the opinion of official scorekeeper Charlie Park. 'I hated to call it,' Park told Jones after the game. But Jones, brushing by and refusing to shake hands with Park, answered, 'I don't think it was a hit, whatever you call it.'

"Gilliam's hit bounced over Jones' head and was charged by shortstop Andre Rodgers, who over-ran and fumbled the ball. Park ruled that Gilliam would have beaten the play even if Rodgers had handled the ball cleanly.

"Rodgers and Giants manager Bill Rigney said it should have been called an error. 'I thought he called it too soon,' said Rigney with Park a listener in the clubhouse. 'If he had thought about it, he couldn't have called it that way. We'll never know if Rodgers could have thrown him out, but the way Rodgers throws, I think we had a chance.'

"Jones, who was aware of his no-hitter all the way, said, 'I thought sure the shortstop would get it. Had he caught the ball, he would have got Gilliam.' Then, turning to a group of questioning reporters, Jones said, 'Why don't you buy yourself another scorekeeper.'"

My father was one of the rotating official scorekeepers during his tenure covering the Dodgers and, in fact, was the official scorer during Koufax's perfect game. In an attached piece that accompanied his article, entitled "As Lederer Saw It," he wrote, "It was a hit. Had it happened in the first inning, there would have been no question. It was unfortunate that Jones lost the no-hitter, but it was the right call. I'm happy that I didn't have to make it, but I would have done the same."

Gilliam's high chopper was indeed a hit as was Scully's "blow-by-blow verbal battle" of one of the greatest baseball rhubarbs and calls of the past 50 years.

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News and notes from around the college, minor league, and mysterious world of baseball cards:

There are a number of preferred statistics when it comes to analyzing the performance of pitchers. Over the years, Cy Young voters have weighed wins and winning percentage more heavily than any other stat. ERA gained popularity among the masses throughout the last century, then adjusted ERA (aka ERA+) gained traction after Baseball-Reference rolled out its site and made this stat easily accessible online.

With the advent of Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (and DIPS 2.0) earlier this decade, analysts began to pay more attention to strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. As a result, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is now recognized as a better measurement of value than wins, winning percentage, ERA, and ERA+. Some even prefer xFIP, Luck Independent Pitching Statistics (LIPS), or tRA, which, at a minimum, normalize HR/FB rates or break down the types of batted balls.

One can also value pitchers based on counting stats, such as Pitching Runs or Runs Saved Against Average. Runs can be converted into wins, giving us Win Shares, Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). The main differences generally involve the use of run estimators and definition of replacement levels.

I like looking at K, BB, and GB rates. Strikeouts exert a greater influence over pitching performance than walks and groundball rates, such that K > BB > GB. Within strikeouts, one can use K/9 (good), K/BF (better), or K/100 pitches (best). K/100P has a higher correlation to runs allowed than strikeouts per batter faced or strikeouts per inning. Granted, K/100P has vestiges of BB and BABIP mixed into the formula, but there are arguments against K/9 and K/BF as well.

I have written several articles on K/100P and summarized my findings here.

Strikeouts. Pitch totals. Putting strikeouts in the numerator and pitch totals in the denominator allows us to measure dominance and efficiency or what I have referred to it as "strikeout proficiency." As a standalone stat, I believe it tells us more than K/9 or K/BF.

With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's take a look at the K/100P results for 2009. The stats are courtesy of ESPN and the list includes all qualified pitchers. (I discuss some of the leaders and laggards below the table.)

Has Javier Vazquez been the best pitcher in baseball this year? One could certainly make a strong argument on his behalf. The 32-year-old righthander leads the majors in not only K/100P by a fairly wide margin but also in total strikeouts and K/9 and is second in WHIP and third in K/BB. His 4-6 W-L record belies just how well he has pitched this season. His FIP, in fact, is three-quarters of a run below his ERA.

If Vazquez hasn't been the top pitcher this year, then how about Dan Haren, who is eighth in K/100P but first in WHIP and K/BB? While the 28-year-old righty may be in the midst of a career year, there are a couple of stats (notably, a BABIP of .238 and a strand rate of 86.0%) that suggest his ERA may be unsustainably low. I picked Haren to win the Cy Young this year so I'm not overly surprised by his stellar season.

Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay are building on their great seasons last year, while Zack Greinke (April and May) and Justin Verlander (late April to the middle of June) have been the most dominant pitchers in the game at various times over the first three months of the season.

Among the top dozen (or those with K/100P rates over 6.00), Jorge de la Rosa is probably the one pitcher who looks like he doesn't belong. While I would take the other 11 pitchers over him, I believe the 28-year-old southpaw is much better than his 3-7 W-L record and 5.85 ERA would indicate. He pitches in a tough ballpark and has been victimized by a high BABIP and a low strand rate. The young fireballer is not all that different from teammate Ubaldo Jimenez even though the latter has posted a 6-6 record with a 3.73 ERA thus far. If de la Rosa can improve his command and control (far from a given), he could eventually reach his vast potential.

At the other end of the spectrum, Jon Garland and Shairon Martis are pitching about as poorly as any regular starter in the big leagues. Both righthanders have not only struck out fewer batters per 100 pitches and inning than any other qualifier but they have allowed more walks than strikeouts, a recipe for disaster no matter what one's BB rate may be.

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My mother gave me a shoebox with a number of old cassette and reel-to-reel audio tapes for Christmas last year. Some items were marked and many others were not. Anxious to find out just what was in the box, I asked our local full-service editing and production storefront to transfer the tapes to compact discs. As things turned out, it was the best money I have ever spent for CDs.

No Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band, Led Zeppelin IV, Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, Saturday Night Fever, or Phantom of the Opera. But, my, what a Thriller it was to find out what I now owned. Included in the tapes (and now CDs) were two interviews of Don Drysdale and my father on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show in 1974.

While Dad had interviewed the "Big D" dozens of times over the years as a beat reporter covering the Dodgers for the Long Beach Press-Telegram, the roles had been reversed and it was Drysdale, the play-by-play broadcaster for the California Angels, interviewing Dad, the team's Director of Public Relations and Promotions. Their careers had overlapped with the Dodgers and Angels like no others from the 1950s to the 1970s.

Drysdale made his MLB debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1956 and was a budding star when Dad began to cover the club after owner Walter O'Malley had relocated the franchise to L.A. in 1958. The two of them stayed with the Dodgers throughout most of the 1960s with Dad and Drysdale both retiring from the Dodgers in 1969. Dad joined the Angels before that season started and worked for the organization for the next ten years. Drysdale hooked up with the Halos in 1973 through 1979 and returned for one year in 1981. (Interestingly, Drysdale's sidekick, Dick Enberg, broadcast Angels games from 1969-1978, matching Dad's tenure with the team exactly.)

The following Warm-Up shows took place 35 years ago. Nineteen years later to the day of the second interview, Drysdale died of a heart attack in his hotel room in Montreal during a Dodgers road trip. He began his career as a Dodger and died a Dodger. He was 56. Like Drysdale, my father passed away at a young age. Dad was 50 when he died of melanoma in 1978.

While I know these "lost" tapes mean more to my family and me than to the baseball public at large, I wanted to share them on the day after what would have been Dad's 81st birthday and the one before Father's Day. Oh, and isn't it fitting that the Dodgers and Angels are playing each other this weekend? My older brother Tom, in fact, went to the game last night.

Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. Be sure to give your loved ones a kiss and a big hug on this special day. None of us know what tomorrow brings.

"Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. Today is a gift. That's why it is called the present."

Thanks, Dad. And thanks, Mom, for the special Christmas gift. It's nice to have you in the present.

* * *

Don Drysdale Interviews George Lederer on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show, 5/7/74:

Don Drysdale Interviews George Lederer on the Angels Warm-Up Radio Show, 7/3/74:

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I first met Paul DePodesta on May 13, 2005 at a Cal Poly-Long Beach State game at Blair Field in Long Beach. Paul, who was in his second year as the General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, joined area scout Bobby Darwin in the row directly in front of me. I recognized him, introduced myself, shook his hand, and we chatted about baseball between innings throughout the game while he was scouting college prospects a month before the draft and staying abreast of the Dodgers 7-4 victory over the Braves that evening.

Paul and I have remained friendly over the past four years. The Harvard two-sport athlete and cum laude graduate is as nice as he is competitive and smart. He is also a fellow blogger and perhaps the only senior member of a front office to operate a baseball-related website.

Now an Executive Vice President for the San Diego Padres, DePodesta has spent the past 13 years working with, for, and hiring some of the brightest minds in the game, including, among others, John Hart, Dan O’Dowd, Mark Shapiro, Josh Byrnes, Neal Huntington, Chris Antonetti, and Ben Cherington with the Cleveland Indians (1996-1998), Billy Beane, J.P. Ricciardi, and David Forst with the Oakland A's (1999-2003), Logan White, Kim Ng, and Dan Feinstein with the Dodgers (2004-2005), and Sandy Alderson, Kevin Towers, Grady Fuson, and Bill Gayton with the Padres (2006-2009).

DePodesta and winning are synonymous with one another. The Indians won the American League Central all three years, the A's won the AL West three times and finished second the other two seasons, the Dodgers captured the franchise's first division title since 1995 and first postseason berth since 1996, and the Padres won the NL West and missed tying for the division title and wild card spot by one game the following season. All in all, the clubs DePodesta has worked for have won eight division crowns and accumulated a won-lost record of 1,137-943 for a winning percentage of .547.

At 31, DePodesta was the third-youngest to become a big-league GM when Dodgers owner Frank McCourt made him his first hire on February 16, 2004. (Theo Epstein was 28 when named GM of the Red Sox in 2002 and Randy Smith was 29 when the Padres hired him in 1993. Jon Daniels subsequently became the youngest GM in baseball history when he ascended to the top spot with the Rangers in 2005 at the age of 28 years and 41 days.)

Paul is married and has two sons and a daughter. His wife Karen is a La Jolla High alum. He has enjoyed his tenure with the Padres for professional and personal reasons. Paul has also served as a keynote speaker at business conventions and his work was featured in Michael Lewis' best-selling book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, and recognized by Fortune, which named him one of the Top 10 innovators under the age of 40.

I had the opportunity to chat with Paul shortly after the MLB Draft was completed last week. Pull up a chair and enjoy.

Rich: On your blog, It Might Be Dangerous... You Go First, you have a poll up, asking "How do you feel about the Padres draft?" The majority of the respondents have voted "Happy." How do you feel about it?

Paul: I'd say "ecstatic," but that's probably how most club officials feel right after their draft.

Rich: The Padres had not taken an outfielder with its first pick since 1999, yet drafted center fielders Donavan Tate (Cartersville HS, GA) and Everett Williams (McCallum HS, TX) in the first and second rounds, respectively. Both players are the sons of former NFL players. Did San Diego make a conscious effort to get more athletic in this year's draft?

Paul: It's the first time since I've been here that we drafted anywhere in the top 20, so we had a different type of player available to us this year and we wanted to take advantage of that opportunity. We've taken some other high school outfielders within the top 50 picks in recent drafts (Kyler Burke, Jaff Decker), so it wasn't necessarily a total departure for us. Due to the work of Grady Fuson and Bill Gayton over the last few years, we feel good about our farm system as a whole, so we really focused on the best player available in each round rather than worrying about organizational need.

Rich: Let's talk about Tate for a minute. Which players, past or present, serve as good comps?

Paul: A lot of different names have been thrown around. I know Donavan admires Grady Sizemore, and there are some similarities there. Some others would include a young Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, or even Adam Jones.

Rich: Tate has signed a letter of intent to play baseball and football at the University of North Carolina. He is also represented by Scott Boras. Do you not feel as if he is going to be a difficult or costly sign?

Paul: Donavan has had a lot of options presented to him recently, including USC and Michigan football, UNC baseball and football, and now the Padres. Our feeling is that despite his impressive talents on the football field, Donavan's first love is baseball.

Rich: I remember Tate in the Aflac Classic last August quite well. He had a couple of memorable at-bats. In the sixth inning, after being behind in the count 0-and-1 and 1-and-2, he worked the count to 3-and-2 before flying out to left on the eighth pitch of his at-bat. Tate had an even better at-bat in the ninth inning when he fell behind 0-and-2 and fouled off five pitches on his way to working the count to 3-and-2, then got on base via an infield single to shortstop. He also scored the East's first run that inning on a wild pitch. I wrote down on my scoresheet, "tall, strong, fast, runs well" but was most impressed with his approach in those two at-bats.

Paul: It's interesting that you mention those ab's, because we heard some rumbings during the spring that Donavan's bat was "raw," and yet we had a representative at nearly all of his games and just didn't see it. I guess it all depends on the perspective: the bat may be "raw" as compared to his other tools or as compared to the top college bats, but as compared with the other high school bats... we felt comfortable with the risk.

Rich: Between Tate and Williams, which one do you see sticking in center field?

Paul: We think they're both good enough to play there. We hope to have that problem someday.

Rich: I saw Williams play in the Area Code Games last summer. After a terrific BP session, he went 0-for-5, striking out three times. It looked to me like he was having trouble handling breaking balls and lefthanders. Has he improved in these areas?

Paul: We see Everett as a pretty polished HS bat. That doesn't mean he won't need to make some adjustments - even the best big leaguers have to - but he has a natural feel for the barrel that is difficult to teach.

Rich: In the third round, you drafted Jerry Sullivan, a 6-4, 200-pound righthander out of Oral Roberts University. What do you see in him?

Paul: Jerry was a top prospect coming out of HS before having Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, he came back strong from the procedure and had a stellar career at Oral Roberts. In addition to being an excellent athlete in a 6'4", 200 lb body, he has always thrown strikes with a fastball that ranges from 90-94 as well as a tough slider and solid change.

Rich: As you mentioned, Sullivan had Tommy John surgery while in high school. Do you believe that pitchers who have undergone elbow reconstruction surgery in the past pose lower injury risks than those who have not?

Paul: Not neccesarily. In fact, pitchers with prior arm injuries can be at greater risk going forward. However, we've learned by painful first-hand experience that every pitcher comes with significant risk.

Rich: I was surprised that Keyvius Sampson (Forest HS, FL) was still available in the fourth round. A three-sport star in high school, he was 93-94 and struck out the first two batters he faced (both of whom went in the top 35 in the draft) in his only inning of work in the Aflac Classic last year. At 6-foot-1, he is not as tall as some of the prep power pitchers who went in the first round, but it still seems like he was a steal as the 114th overall pick in the draft.

Paul: With the format of the draft this year (only three rounds the first day), we had ample time to digest the first three rounds and prepare for the next set of rounds. Since we were picking 3rd again on Day Two we were pleased to find a number of interesting players remaining on the board, and Keyvius was certainly one of them. As you noted, he’s a terrific athlete, and we like both his arm speed and his feel for the changeup.

Rich: How do you, Kevin Towers (EVP/GM), Grady Fuson (VP, Scouting & Player Development), and Bill Gayton (Director of Scouting) work together when it comes to the draft?

Paul: The four of us in addition to our cross-checkers, Scott Littlefield and Bob Filotei, discuss all of the top picks, and there's generally a consensus. At the end of the day, it's up to Grady and Chief to make the final call.

Rich: How much of your time do you spend on scouting?

Paul: I start entering draft mode around the end of February/beginning of March. Once the ML season begins, though, I spend probably 90% of my time on the draft until we announce that last pick.

Rich: Do you think the standard five tools (hitting for average, power, arm strength, fielding,