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<title>Baseball Analysts</title>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/</link>
<description></description>
<copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
<lastBuildDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 00:43:47 -0800</lastBuildDate>
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<docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

<item>
<title>Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: AL</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The 2007 season saw a number of exciting players come into both the American and National leagues. The junior league received some intriguing young pitchers, while the senior circuit welcomed some promising offensive players.</p>

<p>We are more than a month into the 2008 so now is a good time to take a look at how the 2007 rookie class, now a collective group of sophomores, are doing. Are you as curious as I am to see how many of the promising 2007 rookies have been bitten by the dreaded sophomore jinx? Let's have a look at the American League today.</p>

<p><U><B>2007 AL Rookie of the Year Voting (10 points or more):</B></U></p>

<pre>Boston        2B Dustin Pedroia      132 
Tampa Bay     OF Delmon Young         56
Kansas City   RHP Brian Bannister     36
Boston        RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka   12
Los Angeles   OF Reggie Willits       11</pre>

<p><i>Others: Hideki Okajima, Josh Fields, Joakim Soria</i></p>

<p>Let’s take a closer look at those players:<br />
Hitters: AB   AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS+<br />
Pitchers: IP  AVG   K/9  BB/9  ERA+</p>

<p><B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8370&position=2B" target="_blank">Dustin Pedroia</a></B><br />
2007  520  .317  .380  .442  112<br />
2008  163  .307  .343  .311  104  </p>

<p>Pedroia is the type of player that doesn’t have too many highs or too many lows; he’s just incredibly consistent and a great complimentary player to the big boppers in Boston. He should be good for quite some time and could be one of those players who gets better as he ages, in the <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1383&position=2B/3B" target="_blank">Mark Loretta</a></B> mold. </p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2140&position=OF" target="_blank">Delmon Young</a></B><br />
2007  645  .288  .316  .408   91<br />
2008  133  .271  .312  .308   76</p>

<p>The more I think about it, the less I like the idea of Young being a Minnesota Twin. The Twins, in general, aren't exactly known for being a patient team; they have always employed athletic, toolsy players that like to hack (<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=731&position=OF" target="_blank">Torii Hunter</a></B>, <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1006521&position=OF" target="_blank">Jacques Jones</a></B>). Young might be better off on a club that <I>forces</I> him to be more selective. You can’t be a superstar with his type of approach (there is only one <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=778&position=OF" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero</a></B>).</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5590&position=OF" target="_blank">Reggie Willits</a></B><br />
2007  430  .293  .391  .344  096<br />
2008  011  .455  .538  .545  201</p>

<p>Willits has been hurt by the Angels’ position player depth and really hasn’t received a fair shot at following up on his solid rookie season. Regardless, he probably played over his head in 2007 and is a solid fourth outfielder, similar to the Cubs’ <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1702&position=OF" target="_blank">Reed Johnson</a></B>.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7490&position=3B" target="_blank">Josh Fields</a></B><br />
2007  373  .244  .308  .480  101<br />
2008  000  .000  .000  .000  000</p>

<p>Already stuck at Triple-A (and hitting .240), Fields has been sidelined by patella tendonitis, which never a pleasant injury for baseball players (just ask <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1008559&position=1B" target="_blank">Mark McGwire</a></B>). Continued low averages and on-base percentages will likely continue to hinder his major  league success.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5718&position=P" target="_blank">Brian Bannister</a></B><br />
2007  165.0  .251  4.20  2.40  121<br />
2008  042.3  .265  5.10  2.13  096</p>

<p>Bannister is probably a little over-hyped right now, which is hard to imagine for a major league pitcher that throws in the upper 80s and plays for <I>Kansas City</I>. He should probably be a solid starting pitcher for the next few years, but the loss of even a couple of miles an hour on the ol’ fastball could spell doom, regardless of how smart or observant he is.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7775&position=P" target="_blank">Daisuke Matsuzaka</a></B><br />
2007  204.2  .249  8.84  3.52  108<br />
2008  047.2  .172  7.55  5.66  176</p>

<p>With a repertoire like Matsuzaka’s it is hard to believe that he's been pitching away from contact, but that is exactly what he's been doing OR his command is really, really off. Ironically, as of the writing of this article he leads the majors in fewest hits allowed per nine innings… So what is he worried about? Someone needs to remind him that he is pretty darn good.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7763&position=P" target="_blank">Hideki Okajima</a></B><br />
2007  69.0  .204  8.22  2.22  214<br />
2008  18.0  .191  7.50  2.00  865</p>

<p>Okajima was an almost invisible free agent signing out of Japan before the 2007, but he has been absolutely outstanding coming out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. But we also have him to thank for teams going wild by signing mediocre Japanese middle relievers prior to the 2008 season; some of those have worked out, but others haven't.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6941&position=P" target="_blank">Joakim Soria</a></B><br />
2007  69.0  .191  09.78  2.48  189  <br />
2008  13.3  .096  10.13  0.68  INF</p>

<p>There were quite a few scouts that felt Soria would be one of the more successful Rule 5 picks in 2007, but I don't think there were many that thought he’d be quite <I>this</I> good. Soria has helped to solidify a previously inconsistent (OK, terrible) Royals bullpen. He shows no signs of slowing down.</p>

<p><br />
Of the player above, we know Pedroia took home the actual award and he is as good a bet as any of the 2007 rookies to have a great 2008 and a very successful career. Soria is probably the best bet among the pitchers to have a long, productive career. As for over-hyped players, I'd pick Fields or Young.</p>

<p><br />
<I>I’ll be back later this week to take a look at the sophomore seasons for the top National League rookies of 2007.</I><br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/looking_to_avoi.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/looking_to_avoi.php</guid>
<category>Around the Minors</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 00:43:47 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Mother&apos;s Trip Down Memory Lane</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I'm Rich's mother and agreed to "do" this story for Mother's Day.  He and his son Joe are flying home today after spending a week on the east coast, attending games at Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, and Shea Stadium, as well as visiting Cooperstown for a couple of days.</p>

<p>My credentials – I probably should say credential – are having been married to a sportswriter for thirty years.  There were definitely some perks.<br />
	<br />
Receiving four season tickets to the Dodgers games during the eleven years (1958-68) George covered them for the Long Beach Press-Telegram.  These tickets probably had a lot to do with our immense popularity at that time.  <br />
	<br />
Rubbing elbows with the players.  Unlike today's multi-millionaire players, the athletes in the sixties were very approachable.  We carpooled back and forth to and from the airport with the likes of Gino Cimoli and Stan Williams; played bridge with the Roebucks and Ginger Drysdale.  Drove to spring training games in Phoenix with Jeri Roseboro, bought flatware from one of the Sherry brothers during the off-season (can't remember which one), received an etched-glass invitation to Frank Tanana’s wedding (didn’t go, can’t imagine now why not), were guests of the Drysdales at their Hidden Hills home and traded recipes with Pat Reiser (as in Mrs. Pete).<br />
	<br />
Receiving a color television set for Christmas from the Dodgers after they won the World Series in 1959!  We were the only ones in our large circle of friends (remember the season tickets?) to own one and we certainly were popular the following week during the Rose parade!  Think that would be a conflict of interest today?  The Dodgers even handed out meal money to the writers before every trip.  In cash! <br />
	<br />
Accompanying George on a road trip.  That was an event!  I flew on the "Kay O" Dodger plane with the team.  As an interesting aside, the plane landed to refuel on a distant tarmac in Grand Island, Nebraska.  I loudly shared (shouted?) that I was born in Grand Island, Nebraska.  Some wag loudly proclaimed, "Nobody was born in Grand Island, Nebraska!"  The trip included stops in St Louis, New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco. The World's Fair was taking place near Shea Stadium, and I was able to view Michelangelo's Pieta from a moving sidewalk before going to a game. Highlight!  One day, after a game in New York, Maury Wills took George and me on a tour of Greenwich Village.  We stopped in several bars where he was well known and in the last one he was invited to play Banjo with the small jazz band.  Incredible!<br />
	<br />
Richard has written about the two pair of shoes, complete with pitching toes that Sandy Koufax gave to our left-handed pitching teenager, Tom, when he retired.  Only one shoe has survived.  And the priceless souvenir that is the official scorer's (George) score card, framed along with Walter Alston's lineup card that hung in the dugout of Sandy Koufax's perfect game. Cooperstown wants that, but we are hanging on to it!<br />
	<br />
It seemed like George was on the road so much during those years &ndash; six weeks each spring in Vero Beach and every road trip during the season &ndash; that we jokingly referred to him as "Uncle Daddy."  But those were wonderful times, the memories of which we will treasure forever.  Happy Mother's Day to me and all the other baseball wives and widows!</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/a_mothers_day_t.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/a_mothers_day_t.php</guid>
<category>Designated Hitter</category>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 May 2008 00:37:59 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Bite Out of the Big Apple</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>After a memorable <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/to_the_stadium.php">subway ride</a> and visit to Yankee Stadium (to see the <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Boston%20Trip%205-08%20233.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Boston%20Trip%205-08%20233.php','popup','width=640,height=366,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">old</a> and the <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Boston%20Trip%205-08%20228.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Boston%20Trip%205-08%20228.php','popup','width=640,height=480,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">new</a>) on Wednesday, Joe and I had the "day off," if you will, on Thursday.</p>

<p><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Yankees%20Ticket.jpg" width="448" height="175" align=right hspace=9 border=2/>In addition to going to three ballparks (including our first and last visit to Yankee Stadium) and to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, one of my motivations for this trip was to meet up with <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/cat_changeup.php">Patrick Sullivan</a> in Boston; <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/11/otis_redding_wa_2.php">Alex Belth</a> and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/05/retrosheet_fill_1.php">Darren Viola</a> (known as Repoz to readers of the <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsblog/">Baseball Think Factory</a>) in New York; and my longtime pal <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/04/my_nephew_turne.php">Dave O'Brien</a> in Philadelphia (which remains the last leg of our trip this weekend).  Seeing people has always been more important to me than seeing places and this cross-country adventure was no different.</p>

<p>I met Dave for a long lunch at <a href="http://www.pershingsquare.com/">Pershing Square</a> on 42nd Street and Park Avenue.  A former Athletic Director at Long Beach State, Temple, and Northeastern, Dave heads up the sports management program at Drexel University, teaches sports law, and is involved in a couple of other sports ventures as well.  We caught up on old times and both of us are looking forward to a round of golf with our sons on Saturday afternoon at Dave's club in Philly.</p>

<p></p>

<p><img alt="Richard%20and%20Alex%20in%20Central%20Park.jpg" src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Richard%20and%20Alex%20in%20Central%20Park.jpg" width="351" height="336" align=left hspace=12 border=1/>A couple of hours later, I emerged from the <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Canyons%20of%20Manhattan.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Canyons%20of%20Manhattan.php','popup','width=480,height=556,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">canyons of Manhattan</a> and walked to Radio City Hall to meet up with <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/New%20York%20Trip%20012.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/New%20York%20Trip%20012.php','popup','width=482,height=480,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Alex</a> .  A lifelong resident of New York City, Alex was anxious to show me some landmarks in and around his old stomping grounds.  On our way to Central Park for a game of catch, we passed Rockefeller Center at <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/12/30_rock.php">30 Rock</a> and Saks Fifth Avenue, next to <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/St.%20Patrick%27s%20Cathedral.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/St.%20Patrick%27s%20Cathedral.php','popup','width=480,height=640,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">St. Patrick's Cathedral</a>, an old and glorious church.  We walked back to 6th and up to the park where we stopped and tossed the ball around for about 15 minutes while softball games were going on all around us.  We passed Tavern on the Green in the park as we exited onto Central Park West.  We proceeded north on CPW to 72nd Street where Alex pointed out <a href="http://www.nyc-architecture.com/UWS/UWS017.htm">the</a> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dakota">Dakota</a>, John Lennon's old and John Madden's current residence, and the filming location of "Rosemary's Baby."   From there, we headed over to Broadway where Alex showed me the famous <a href="http://www.nyc-architecture.com/UWS/UWS031.htm">Ansonia Hotel</a>, where <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Babe%20Ruth%27s%20Apartment%20in%20NYC.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Babe%20Ruth%27s%20Apartment%20in%20NYC.php','popup','width=480,height=640,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Babe Ruth and John McGraw lived at one time</a>.  The hotel was featured in "The Sunshine Boys" and "Single White Female."  </p>

<p>Up on 79th Street, Alex highlighted another lovely old apartment building, <a href="http://www.thecityreview.com/uws/bway/apthorp.html">The Apthorp</a>.  We walked up Broadway, past the Beacon Theater (where Steely Dan is performing), and saw Fairway, Citarella and Zabars, the food emporiums on our left.  Finally, we ate at a deli called <a href="http://www.arties.com/reviews.asp">Artie's</a> where I enjoyed a pastrami sandwich and a Dr. Brown's Black Cherry while Alex plowed down a couple of hot dogs and a ginger ale. After dinner, we walked over to West End Avenue and then one block further west to Riverside Drive, where we stopped and chatted at the edge of Riverside Park with the lights from New Jersey across the river shining through the green leaves on the countless number of trees that line the park.</p>

<p>Alex hailed down a cab for me and asked the driver to take me by Lincoln Center on my way back to the New York Helmsley.  We also passed the New York Library, the theatre district, Times Square, and I caught a glimpse of the Empire State Building in all of its green glory at night.  Not bad for twenty bucks.</p>

<p>Tonight promises to be another special night on our nine-day trip to the northeast.  Alex, Repoz, Joe and I are going to the Reds-Mets game at Shea Stadium.  Alex is planning on meeting us outside our hotel around 5:45 p.m. (that's Eastern Time) and the three of us are going to take a short stroll to Grand Central where we will hook up with Repoz, rain or shine, on the platform for the 7 train at 6 p.m.  </p>

<p>Keep your fingers crossed for us as the weather forecast calls for showers with temperatures ranging from 47 to 56 degrees.  Joe and I want to extend our streak of great weather for a few more days.  But there's a reason why I brought my rain coat.  It just may be the day to finally bring it out of the ol' garment bag.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/a_bite_out_of_t.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/a_bite_out_of_t.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Fri, 09 May 2008 11:30:47 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>To THE Stadium and Back</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I'm planning on putting up a follow-up post regarding our second day in Cooperstown, complete with photos and a few personal stories.  However, for purposes of timeliness, I want to skip ahead to Wednesday night when Joe and I attended our first game at Yankee Stadium or THE Stadium as Yankee fans like to call it.  </p>

<p>Those of us from Southern California call our ballparks <em>Dodger</em> Stadium and <em>Angel</em> Stadium.  But, then again, we also succumb to easterners when it comes to describing the time.  We say "Pacific Time" when conversing with folks outside our time zone whereas people on the so-called <em>right</em> side of the country would never add "Eastern Time" in describing when something was going to take place.  Oh well, I'll be sure to schedule an appointment with a psychiatrist to talk about my inferiority complex when I get back home.</p>

<p><img alt="Cliff%20Lee%20on%20Subway.jpg" src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Cliff%20Lee%20on%20Subway.jpg" width="360" height="279" align=left hspace=12 border=1/>In the meantime, Joe and I did some Cliff Hangin' last night on our way to the game.  We caught the 4 Train from Grand Central (or the Iron Horse as <a href="http://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/">Alex Belth</a> told me insiders call it) to Yankee Stadium.  After getting a bite to eat in the food concourse, we hopped onto the subway at about 3:45 p.m. (Eastern Time).  Our car was crowded so we found ourselves standing in the middle, holding onto the rails for safety.  After we got situated, Joe whispers to me, "I'm 95% certain that's Cliff Lee standing next to you"  (notice the arm of my brown jacket in the foreground).  I look up and, sure enough, it looks just like the Cleveland lefthander.  I turned back to Joe and remarked, "I think you're right."  He then says, "I'm 99.9% certain."  While I'm not into star gazing per se, you have to admit that it's an incredible coincidence that a player from the opposing team &ndash; much less the starting pitcher THAT night &ndash; would be riding the subway to the park *and* at the same time as Joe and me *and* standing next to us for the entire trip.</p>

<p>In any event, while making eye contact with Lee, I make a pitching motion with my left hand as if I were throwing a breaking ball.  He gives me a quizzical look so I mouth "Cliff?"  He nods his head.  Conscientious that I'm wearing a NY hat for the first time in my life, I point to it and tell him that I'm from Long Beach, California and not really a Yankees fan.  Lee smiled and shook his head.  I explained that Joe and I were on a father-son baseball trip and had already been to Fenway Park the previous weekend and were going to our first Yankees game that night, and to Shea Stadium on Friday night.</p>

<p>There wasn't a single person other than Joe or me who had any inclination that Cliff Lee was standing on the subway, holding onto the rail tightly with his <em>left</em> arm.  The 29-year-old southpaw stands about an inch shorter than me (although he looked a tad shorter than that) but with more facial hair and was wearing a beige LaCoste shirt with a green alligator on it, designer jeans, comfortable shoes, and a silver Rolex on his right hand &ndash; the only real Rolex on the entire subway.  In fact, I'm quite sure I could have bought two or three along the way for much less than what Lee paid for his watch (or it it a time piece?).</p>

<p>Having garnered Lee's full attention at this point, I told him that ESPN was calling that evening's game "the pitching matchup of the season."  Going into the game, Lee was 5-0 and Chien-Ming Wang was 6-0.  Cliff responded modestly, "It's still early."  I nodded and said, "Yeah, but it must feel good."  Lee agreed, "It does."  I winked as if to say, "Good job," and he smiled back as if to say, "Thanks."  </p>

<p>I left it at that and we rode in the rest of the way, exiting at 161st Street.  Lee hurried off the subway and departed into a sea of commuters and early-arriving fans.  Joe and I walked down the stairs and onto the street and there they were: the new Yankee Stadium directly in front of us and the old Yankee Stadium across the street and slightly to the left.  We took several photos before going to Gate 2 and getting in line to tour Monument Park inside the stadium prior to the game.  (I will put up photos as time permits later today or tomorrow.)</p>

<p>I don't need to tell Yankee fans how the game turned out.  Lee threw seven scoreless innings and picked up his sixth victory without a loss while lowering his ERA to 0.81.  Did I mention that Lee has 39 strikeouts while only allowing 2 walks?  I'm sure these same fans (Alex included) wish I had tripped Lee on his way out the subway.  Heck, ballplayer or no ballplayer, I wouldn't do that to someone I was just hangin' with.</p>

<p>(As an aside, how did the Indians do in that trade where they sent Bartolo Colon to the Expos for Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips?  Although Lee hasn't performed to expectations and Cleveland never capitalized on Phillips' late-blooming career, Sizemore has been one of the best center fielders in baseball the past several years and Lee is pitching as well as &ndash; or better than &ndash; anyone in baseball this season.)</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/to_the_stadium.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/to_the_stadium.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2008 11:13:50 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Are the Salt Lake Bees Worth All the Buzz?</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>As just about every minor league fan knows by now, the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) have been very, very good this season. The club was 23-2 in the month of April. The Bees have had a little tougher going in May with a 2-4 record and the club is now 25-6, but still eight games up on Tacoma in the Pacific North Division.</p>

<p>In April, the Bees collectively were first overall in average (.320), on-base percentage (.395) and runs scored (190). It was also second in slugging percentage (.506) next to Albuquerque, and third in homers (34) behind Albuquerque and Omaha.</p>

<p>We know what the team is doing, so let’s take a look at some of the individual players:</p>

<p>SS/3B <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/457/457420.html>Brandon Wood</a></B> (.273/.333/.614)<br />
Wood, 23, has been on the prospect landscape since 2003, when he was drafted in the first round out of high school. People really started to take notice after he slugged 43 homers in 536 at-bats a Rancho Cucamonga (a very good hitting stadium in a very good hitting A-ball league). That season may be the worst thing that every happened to him, as he has been unable to live up to that since. He hit “only” 25 and 23 homers the next two seasons, which were viewed as disappointments despite being solid totals, especially given his age at the time (21 and 22). One of the biggest knocks on Wood is his lack on contact, as he struck out 149 times in 453 at-bats in 2006 and 120 times in 437 at-bats in 2007. He needs the chance to play every day at the major league level.</p>

<p>IF <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/446/446481.html>Sean Rodriguez</a></B> (.250/.429/.531)<br />
Rodriguez has been overshadowed by Wood, but he was also taken in the 2003 draft as a high school shortstop (third round). Rodriguez’ career has been plagued by inconsistencies and ups-and-downs. In 2004, he hit .338/.486/.569 in 225 short season at-bats and then his offence all but disappeared the next season. He returned in 2006 and slugged 29 homers between High-A ball and Double-A. Then in 2007 he slumped again down to .254/.345/.423 at Double-A. Many scouts predict a utility player future for Rodriguez but if he can find a little more consistency he has enough power to make an intriguing regular at second base, even if it’s just for a few years.</p>

<p>3B <a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/456/456762.html><B>Matt Brown</B></a> (.382/.424/.699)<br />
Brown, 25, is more suspect than prospect; don’t let the numbers fool you. He’s a former 10th round pick out of high school from the 2001 draft. He spent seven seasons in the minors prior to 2008 and batted a combined .264/.347/.449 in more than 2,500 at-bats. He has average power at best for a third baseman and he hit 19 homers in 391 at-bats last year for Salt Lake. He spent time in the outfield, as well as at third base, first base and second base in 2007 and Brown is likely best-suited to be a utility player at the major league level.</p>

<p>C <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/435/435064.html>Bobby Wilson</a></B> (.325/.391/.434)<br />
With a lot of other clubs, Wilson would be a major league back-up already. But thanks to the presence of <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3057&position=C" target="_blank">Mike Napoli</a></B> and <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3448&position=C" target="_blank">Jeff Mathis</a></B>, two solid young catchers, Wilson, 25, is still biding his time riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors as the third-string catcher. He has a solid offensive ceiling for a back-up catcher and has a career line of .282/.335/.426. Wilson split 2007 between Double-A and Triple-A and was solid, albeit unspectacular. He also has some experience at both first base and third base so that versatility could serve him well down the road.</p>

<p>1B <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8610&position=1B/DH" target="_blank">Kendry Morales</a></B> (.291/.320/.470)<br />
The former Cuban free agent signing has not solidified his role in the majors as quickly as the Angels originally thought he might. That said, he has spent 100 games in the majors over the course of the past two seasons and hit .256/.308/.411. Unfortunately, he is not great defensively at first base or in the outfield and he is inconsistent with the bat. He has hit above .300 at every stop in the minors but his lack of patience hurts him at the major league level (his OBP is .085 higher in the minors, in part due to his .334 career minor league average). He also needs to show more usable power at the major league level as he has hit only nine homers in 316 at-bats.</p>

<p>IF <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/461/461866.html>Freddy Sandoval</a></B> (.346/.390/.570)<br />
Sandoval has been the second-best hitter on the club so far this season. The former eighth round pick out of San Diego State in 2004 is a solid minor league hitter with a career line of .282/.366/.415 but he is miscast as a third baseman. He has only 20 career homers in 1,330 at-bats. His second-best position is first base, which is really no help to his prospect standing. If he were a shortstop or a second baseman, Sandoval, 25, would have a much brighter career outlook. That said, there is hope for a major league bench role, especially if he can make his way to the National League.</p>

<p>Here is how those hitters are doing so far in May:</p>

<pre>Brandon Wood     0/0  |  ---
Sean Rodriguez   0/4  | .000
Matt Brown       2/17 | .118
Bobby Wilson     6/21 | .286
Kendry Morales   9/27 | .333
Freddy Sandoval  4/24 | .167</pre>

<p>Pitching-wise in April, the club was first in ERA (3.34), shutouts (five), and runs allowed (97). The Bees organization was also third in saves (eight) and home runs allowed (20), fourth in fewest hits allowed (229).</p>

<p>Let’s take a look at some of the individual pitchers:</p>

<p>RHP <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/444/444440.html>Nick Adenhart</a></B> (4-0, 0.87 ERA)<br />
The top pitching prospect on the club, Adenhart recently made his major league debut and struggled mightily against the Royals. It should be a shock considering his low strikeout totals this season (5.52 K/9) and high walk rate (4.35 BB/9). The most impressive number in the minors this season was that he had allowed only 18 hits in 31 innings, but he had an incredibly low BABIP (.208), which suggests that number is the result of luck. Adenhart has the stuff to be a very successful pitcher, but he’s only 21 and has just 31 games of experience above A-ball.</p>

<p>RHP <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/446/446550.html>Nick Green</a></B> (3-0, 3.38 ERA)<br />
Green has some promise but his chronically low strikeout totals (360 in 507.2 career innings) limit his ceiling. He does, though, have above-average control (1.88 BB/9 in his career). The 23-year-old pitcher has struggled against lefties this season (.293 average) and has allowed a lot of fly ball outs (GO/AO of 0.69). Green is probably a fourth starter at the major league level.</p>

<p>RHP <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1613&position=P" target="_blank">Shane Loux</a></B> (4-2, 3.79 ERA)<br />
Loux, a former Tigers prospect, is your typical overachieving veteran minor league hurler. The 28-year-old is a former second round pick out of high school who posted ERAs of 5.29 and 5.75 the last two seasons at the Triple-A level. He also has a career rate of 5.42 K/9. He allowed eight earned runs over five innings in his first May outing.</p>

<p><B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/461/461766.html>Jose Arredondo</a></B> (8 saves, 2.40 ERA)<br />
Arredondo, 24, has had his share of ups and downs but may have finally settled into a comfortable role in the bullpen. The former non-drafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic looked to be on the verge of a breakout as a starter in 2006, only to end up getting beaten up by Double-A batters. He has also butted head with coaches and others in the organization. </p>

<p>The Angels do have some interesting players on the Salt Lake club, but it seems clear that the club significantly over-achieved in April and we are already beginning to see the players come back down to earth in May. Regardless, the future still looks bright for the likes of Adenhart and Wood.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/are_the_salt_la.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/are_the_salt_la.php</guid>
<category>Around the Minors</category>
<pubDate>Wed, 07 May 2008 00:08:00 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>New York State of Mind</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p><em>Some folks like to get away, <br />
take a holiday from the neighborhood.<br />
Hop a flight to Miami Beach or Hollywood.<br />
I'm taking a greyhound on the Hudson River line.<br />
I'm in a New York state of mind.</em></p>

<p><em>&ndash; Billy Joel</em></p>

<p>After spending the weekend in Boston, my son Joe and I rented a car and drove to Cooperstown        on Monday.  We brought our California weather with us as it was mid-60s and sunny for the entire 240-mile trip.  Aside from breaking our piggy bank to pay for the multitude of tolls (what's up with that?), the drive mostly along Interstate 90 could not have been better.  Traffic was non-existent, the leaves on the trees were gorgeous, and the final 50 miles or so of back roads was a fun experience for a couple of city slickers from Long Beach.  My only regret was that we    didn't have an extra day to stop at the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Massachusetts en route to Cooperstown.</p>

<p>We checked into the <a href="http://www.cooperinn.com/">Cooper Inn</a> about 2:45 p.m. and headed directly to The National Baseball Hall of Fame, knowing full well that it was closing at 5:00 p.m.  The Cooper Inn, a classic federal brick landmark built in 1812 as the private residence of publisher Henry Phinney, is located on the northeast corner of Main Street & Chestnut Street and is convenient to all attractions in "America's Most Perfect Village."</p>

<p>Cooperstown is a quaint village situated next to <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Joe%20with%20Lake%20in%20Background.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Joe%20with%20Lake%20in%20Background.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Lake Otsego</a>, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/golf%20course.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/golf%20course.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Leatherstocking Golf Course</a>, and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Cooperstown%20Houses.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Cooperstown%20Houses.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">beautiful old-fashioned homes</a>.  If not for the winters, I think I could retire in this town, although I'm sure I would miss having a major-league baseball team &ndash; or two &ndash; within driving distance of my home.  Like all eastern time zone locales, the offset is that you can work a full day and still watch two games on TV at night &ndash; as long as you're willing to stay up late (which might not be a very good idea after all if, in fact, you were going to work the next morning).</p>

<p>For a more complete report on Cooperstown, be sure to read Dave Studenmund's <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cooperstown-and-the-hall-of-fame/">highly informative article</a> at The Hardball Times.  Dave's mother was raised in Cooperstown, his older brother Woody was born there, and the family owned a summer house in town.  As such, Studes spent his summers in Cooperstown while growing up and later honeymooned there (just like my older brother Tom).  In the department of "It's a Small World," Dave's brother Woody and I first knew each other in the mid-70s when we both competed in the Greater Los Angeles APBA Association.  Woody is also a charter member of the Northeast League, the longest-running baseball table-game league on record.  The name of his team?  The Cooperstown Phillies. <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Dave%20Studenmund%27s%20brick.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Dave%20Studenmund%27s%20brick.php','popup','width=640,height=383,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Dave</a> and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Woody%20Studenmund%27s%20brick.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Woody%20Studenmund%27s%20brick.php','popup','width=640,height=350,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Woody</a> both have bricks with dedications inscribed at Doubleday Field in Cooperstown.</p>

<p><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/oldest%20known%20baseball%20jersey.jpg" width="300" height="338" align=left hspace=12 />Dressed in walking shorts and short-sleeve shirts, we entered the Hall of Fame, picked up our passes courtesy of Jeff Idelson, the new president, and headed upstairs to the second floor where a timeline history of baseball exhibits and rooms are filled with baseball memorabilia, as well as game-used equipment and uniforms.  Hamming for the camera, I'm acting as astonished as can be when viewing the oldest-known baseball jersey (Baraboo Base Ball Club in Wisconsin, circa 1866) in existence.</p>

<p>Joe and I also took photos of one another standing next to some of our favorites, including <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Babe%20Ruth%20game-used%20jersey1.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Babe%20Ruth%20game-used%20jersey1.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Babe Ruth's Yankees locker and jersey</a>, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Lou%20Gehrig%20locker%20and%20jersey.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Lou%20Gehrig%20locker%20and%20jersey.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Lou Gehrig's locker and jersey</a>, a <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Christy%20Mathewson%20game-used%20jersey%20.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Christy%20Mathewson%20game-used%20jersey%20.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Christy Mathewson jersey</a> donated by his wife, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Joe%20and%20Honus%20Wagner.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Joe%20and%20Honus%20Wagner.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Honus Wagner's coach's jersey and two thick-handled game-used bats</a>, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Shoeless%20Joe%20Jackson%20jersey%2C%20cap%2C%20and%20glove.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Shoeless%20Joe%20Jackson%20jersey%2C%20cap%2C%20and%20glove.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Shoeless Joe Jackson's jersey, cap, and glove</a>, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Jackie%20Robinson%20hat%20and%20jacket.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Jackie%20Robinson%20hat%20and%20jacket.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Jackie Robinson's Brooklyn Dodgers hat and jacket</a>, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Sandy%20Koufax%201965%20Jersey.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Sandy%20Koufax%201965%20Jersey.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Sandy Koufax's 1965 game-used home jersey</a>, and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Nolan%20Ryan%27s%20seven%20no-hitter%20hats.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Nolan%20Ryan%27s%20seven%20no-hitter%20hats.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Nolan Ryan's seven no-hitter hats</a> (including four with the California Angels when my Dad and Joe's grandfather was Director of Public Relations and Promotions).  </p>

<p>At Joe's request, I also took a snapshot of him standing next to the exhibit of <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Ted%20Williams%20Science%20of%20Hitting.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Ted%20Williams%20Science%20of%20Hitting.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">Ted Williams and the Science of Hitting</a>.  The Splendid Splinter has been Joe's all-time favorite player since his boyhood days.</p>

<p>Before our first afternoon at the Hall of Fame was complete, we found ourselves in the "Records Room," which include, among other things, game-used baseballs from no-hitters (presented in chronological order).  While looking for balls from Koufax's and Ryan's no-nos, we discovered the following ball and accompanying photo of the author of a no-hitter in 1977.</p>

<center><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Bert%20in%20the%20Hall1.jpg" width="600" height="493" /></center>

<p>And to think I thought Bert Blyleven wasn't in the Hall of Fame!   Shame on me.</p>

<p>Joe and I stayed until closing time at 5 o'clock, browsing through the gift shop as we exited the building.  We proceeded directly to Doubleday Field, which is just a few short blocks from the Museum.  The <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Field%20Entrance.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Field%20Entrance.php','popup','width=600,height=800,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">"birth place of baseball"</a> is scheduled to host an exhibition game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs on June 16, 2008.   Doubleday is a <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Playing%20Field1.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Playing%20Field1.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">beautiful venue</a>, complete with <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Field%20Dugout.php" onclick="window.open('http://baseballanalysts.com/Doubleday%20Field%20Dugout.php','popup','width=600,height=450,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">brick dugouts</a> that are situated much closer to home plate than normal.  The dimensions are on the small side (390 feet to center field) but certainly within the parameters of many old and modern-day ballparks.</p>

<p>At Dave's suggestion, we ate dinner at the Cooperstown Diner. Having passed on breakfast and lunch earlier in the day, I opted for the "three-inch thick burger" that Studes mentions in his article.  Joe had a Denver Omelette.  The food was excellent but the service was a bit slow, maybe because there were eight other people in the joint as well.  Hey, it's a small town.  And a great one at that.</p>

<p>We're heading downstairs to our Continental Breakfast and then off to the Hall of Fame for a full day where we will get a "behind-the-scenes" tour of the baseball library and spend lots of time in the gallery, scoping out where Bert's plaque will be permanently displayed within the next few years.  It promises to be a great day.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/new_york_state.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/new_york_state.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2008 08:35:00 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Sunday in the Park and More</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>We were greeted by a rather cool and damp Sunday.  Although it was drizzling throughout the morning, we were relieved to find out that the outlook was for clear skies later in the day.  We kept our fingers crossed in the hopes that the Rays and Red Sox would play their scheduled game that afternoon.</p>

<p>After posting my travelogue for the previous day, we walked over to the Eastern Standard, which adjoins our hotel, to meet Sully; Jared Porter, Director of Professional Scouting; and Bill James, who needs no introduction on these pages, for breakfast.  Joe and I were the first to show up and were followed shortly by Jared, who arrived by car; Sully, via a taxi; and Bill, by foot.  Sully greeted us with a classic story.  He took a cab from his apartment to the restaurant.  There was a Walk for Hunger, a 20-mile trek to raise money for Project Bread (which funds emergency food programs in Massachusetts), that was progressing on Commonwealth Avenue and Pat's cabbie complained about the pedestrian traffic, "These people don't care about anyone but themselves."  Yogi Berra couldn't have said it any better!</p>

<p>While I had the privilege of <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/02/breakfast_with.php">meeting Bill</a> <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/03/breakfast_with_1.php">for breakfast</a> <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/03/breakfast_with_2.php">at the winter meetings in Anaheim</a> in December 2004, this was a first for Sully and Joe, who later told me hooking up with James was "like a professional dancer spending two hours with Fred Astaire," adding that "it'll be one of those moments I will never, ever forget."</p>

<p>The five of us talked nothing but baseball for a couple of hours &ndash; what did you expect...weather, politics, religion?  We didn't draft or sign any players or make any trades, but we had a good time covering current events, swapping stories, and giving our opinions here and there.  Oh, now that I think of it, we veered off course for a while when we talked about college basketball.  This topic gave Bill the chance to talk about his Kansas Jayhawks, and he mused at how the media only gives KU credit for championships won in the era of the tournament, completely ignoring titles won by polls back in the 1920s.</p>

<p><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Boston%20Trip%205-08%20017.jpg" width="415" height="336" align=left hspace=12 />At the conclusion of our breakfast, we walked to Fenway Park, braving a light drizzle for the five-minute stroll.  Bill and Jared headed to their offices while Sully, Joe, and I picked up our tickets, shopped in The Souvenir Store on 19 Yawkey Way, walked around Fenway Park, <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Sully%20and%20Joe%20Outside%20Fenway%20With%20WS%20Banners.jpg">snapping several photos</a>, and stopping into one of the many sports bars surrounding the ballpark.  It was my first trip back to Fenway in almost 20 years to the day.  Back then, I was on a business trip and went to an <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS198805180.shtml">Oakland-Boston game</a> all by my lonesome but was treated like royalty when a lady in the front office handed me a front-row ticket directly behind home plate.  Assisted by hometown fans hanging onto the screen and yelling profanities (in their best Boston accents) at Ron Hassey and the home plate umpire, the Red Sox beat the A's 4-1 in similar cold and wet conditions.</p>

<p>We made our way inside the stadium, Sully noticed Assistant GM Jed Hoyer walking by, and we greeted him and exchanged a few pleasantries.  We took a <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/Sully%20and%20Me%20at%20Fenway.jpg">few more photos</a> near our seats and then sat down well in advance of Jon Lester's first pitch.  The southpaw was coming off his best game ever in a matchup with Scott Kazmir, who was making his 2008 debut.</p>

<p>Sully's wife Johanna joined us shortly after game time.  To show what a small world it is, Johanna and Joe went to middle school in Long Beach together and shared social circles, including Chase Utley, who is leading the majors in home runs and having an MVP-type season for the Philadelphia Phillies.  Believe it or not but Sully and I became friends first without even knowing about the connection between his wife and my son.  The friendship goes beyond our love for baseball and Baseball Analysts as my wife and I attended Sully's and Johanna's wedding in Long Beach in December 2006.</p>

<p>Lester and Kazmir threw a lot of pitches but the Boston youngster won the battle between the southpaws, allowing four hits, three walks, and one run over the course of six innings.  Kazmir hit 93 on the gun but was working mostly at 91-92.  He mixed in a few nifty changeups although the patient Red Sox hitters worked him for three walks and four runs (three earned) in just four innings.  The game, which lasted 3 hours and 39 minutes, was highlighted by a Manny Ramirez double off the Green Monster, a Kevin Youkilis dinger to dead center, some excellent play in the field and at the plate by Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and another save by Jon Papelbon, who recorded the last four outs to preserve the 7-3 Sox win.</p>

<p>After the game, we went to The Baseball Tavern; then took a cab to Union Park, the quaint neighborhood where Pat and Jo live.  After taking a quick tour of their apartment, we jumped into another cab to the north end, where we walked The Freedom Trail, stopping for photos at Paul Revere's home and the famous "One if by land, two if by sea" church. We had a delicious dinner at Cantina Italiana and spent a great three hours dining and talking good ol' times.  It was a great way to cap a great day.</p>

<p>We're off to Cooperstown this morning.  We have a long but pleasant drive ahead of us.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/_breakfast_with.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/_breakfast_with.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 05 May 2008 00:17:15 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Saturday Near the Park</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Joe drove up from San Diego on Friday night and spent the night at our house.  We awoke at 5:00 a.m. on Saturday morning to catch a 7:10 JetBlue flight out of Long Beach Airport, a relic right out of the 1960s.  My wife dropped us off at the airport about an hour before our departure time, we checked our baggage, headed to Gate 1, and boarded the airplane on time.</p>

<p>We had aisle seats in row 3, complete with extra leg room (at a price, of course).  Both of us were also lucky that the seats next to us were empty (no extra price . . . just the luck of the draw) despite the fact that the plane was relatively full.  We took off on time and arrived 30 minutes early.  An Early Wynn for us (more on him later).  All in all, the flight experience was as pleasant as possible.</p>

<p>If JetBlue can't spin much of a profit, I don't know how any airline can.  As I like to tell clients who ask about investing in airline stocks, "Any time the market is open is a good time to sell these stocks."  As it relates to JetBlue, a good company doesn't always equate to a good stock (JBLU).</p>

<p>The gentleman on my left was a UCLA provost and the woman on Joe's right was a mother of two students currently attending USC.  We chit chatted with our aisle partners, then settled in switching between watching DirecTV &ndash; one of the greatest features on any airline &ndash; and listening to our iPods.  To change up our choice of songs, we even exchanged iPods for part of the trip.  I mean, if not then, when would I ever listen to Jay-Z and LBC's own Snoop Dogg?</p>

<p>While watching Jennie Finch pitching softball for Team USA on one of the scores of channels on DirecTV, Joe leaned across the aisle and asked me, "What do you notice differently about the catcher (she was lefthanded)?"  Without hesitating, I said, "No cup?"  Rim shot.</p>

<p>About two thirds into our flight, we played a name game, involving baseball players and personalities associated with the game.  Using "Notes" on my iPhone, we typed in the following names in succession.  The goal isn't to stump the other person as much as it is to pass the time while having fun and enjoying a few laughs.  I typed "Sandy Koufax" and away we went...</p>

<p>Sandy Koufax <br />
Sandy Alderson <br />
Tim Alderson <br />
Tim Wallach <br />
Tim Beckham <br />
Tim Raines <br />
Tim Raines Jr.<br />
Junior Felix <br />
King Felix <br />
Jeff King <br />
King Kong Kingman <br />
Brian Kingman <br />
Brian Gunn <br />
Brian Jordan <br />
Michael Jordan <br />
Michael Young <br />
Geoff Young <br />
Chris Young <br />
Chris Krug <br />
Christy Mathewson <br />
Eddie Mathews <br />
Eddie Murray <br />
Dale Murray <br />
Dale Murphy <br />
Dwayne Murphy <br />
Bill Murphy <br />
Chad Billingsley <br />
Henry Chadwick <br />
Henry Aaron<br />
Aaron Bleepin' Boone <br />
Bucky Bleepin' Dent <br />
Buck Weaver <br />
Jered Weaver <br />
Earl Weaver <br />
Earl Battey <br />
Early Wynn <br />
Jimmy Wynn <br />
Jimmy Key <br />
Mickey Mantle <br />
Mickey Cochrane <br />
Mickey McDermott <br />
Mickey Lolich <br />
Mickey Hatcher <br />
Billy Hatcher <br />
Billy Martin <br />
Russell Martin <br />
Bill Russell <br />
Bill James <br />
Charlie James <br />
Charlie O'Brien <br />
Charlie Moore <br />
Donnie Moore <br />
Dave Moorehead <br />
Dave Studenmund <br />
Dave Smith <br />
Pete Smithson <br />
Pete Rose <br />
Johnny Roseboro <br />
Johnny Ray <br />
Jim Ray Hart <br />
John Hart <br />
Howard Johnson <br />
Frank Howard <br />
Frank Viola <br />
Darren "Repoz" Viola <br />
Roger Repoz <br />
Roger Maris</p>

<p>The game ended with &ndash; appropriately enough &ndash; Roger Maris.  My Dad was at Yankee Stadium on October 1, 1961 when Maris hit his record-breaking 61st home run off Boston's Tracy Stallard.  The Dodgers were on an east coast road trip and he flew to New York to cover this event.  Forty-seven years later, Joe and I will watch games in Boston and New York.</p>

<p><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Fenway%20Park%20from%20Hotel%20Window.jpg" width="400" height="266" align=left hspace =12/>Upon landing at Logan Airport, we took a taxi to the Hotel Commonwealth.  It is directly across the highway from Fenway Park.  The photo at the left was shot from the window of our room.  After getting situated, we took a stroll past Boston University, then reversed course and walked to Newbury Street.  We ate dinner at none other than Joe's American Bar and Grill.  My son has no ownership stake in the restaurant.</p>

<p>We returned to the hotel around 8:00 and watched Tampa Bay and the Red Sox battle it out on NESN.  It wasn't much of a battle as Boston blew out the Rays, 12-4.</p>

<p>Off to breakfast with Sully, Jared Porter, and Bill James, followed by a Sunday game at Fenway.  I'll be back on later tonight or tomorrow morning.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/saturday_near_t.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/saturday_near_t.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Sun, 04 May 2008 05:38:29 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Baseball Trip of a Lifetime</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>As Patrick Sullivan indicated yesterday in <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/_this_weekend_t.php">Welcoming the Lederers</a>, my son Joe and I are flying from Long Beach to Boston today for the first leg of our nine-day baseball trip to the northeast.  Our whirlwind adventure will take us to Boston, Cooperstown, New York, and Philadelphia, and it includes three games (Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, and Shea Stadium), a behind-the-scenes tour of the Hall of Fame, a round of golf, and opportunities to meet up with baseball writers, executives, analysts, colleagues, and old friends. </p>

<p>The seeds of our trip began a year ago when I took my daughter Macy on a whitewater rafting trip to the Salmon River prior to her wedding in October.  Although Joe is not about to get married any time soon, I decided it didn't make sense to wait until he got engaged to partake in a father-son trip.  Heck, I wanted to go to a Yankees game at THE Stadium before it was demolished and what better way to do so than to share such a trip with my 29-year-old baseball-loving son?  As it turns out, we are going to witness games at <em>two</em> stadiums in their final seasons, and they both just happen to be situated in New York.  My wife is excited for Joe and me and will see us off at Long Beach Airport this morning.</p>

<p>I am planning on maintaining a daily journal of our trip on Baseball Analysts, complete with news, notes, stories, links, and photos.  Feel free to ride shotgun with us as we make our way to two of the most historic ballparks in the country as well as to Cooperstown and more.</p>

<p>Our itinerary is as follows:</p>

<p><u>Saturday, May 3</u></p>

<p>Depart LGB @ 7:10 a.m.<br />
Arrive BOS @ 3:42 p.m. </p>

<p>Hotel Commonwealth<br />
Boston, MA</p>

<p><u>Sunday, May 4</u></p>

<p>Breakfast @ 10:00 a.m. with Patrick Sullivan, Jared Porter, Bill James at Eastern Standard Kitchen & Drinks in Kenmore Square.</p>

<p>Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, 1:35 p.m. (with Sully and his wife Jo)</p>

<p><u>Monday, May 5 - Tuesday, May 6</u></p>

<p>Cooperstown/Hall of Fame<br />
	<br />
Cooper Inn<br />
Cooperstown, NY</p>

<p><u>Wednesday, May 7</u></p>

<p>New York Helmsley<br />
New York, NY</p>

<p>Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees, Yankee Stadium, 7:05 p.m.</p>

<p><u>Thursday, May 8</u></p>

<p>Lunch with Dave O’Brien, longtime friend and former Athletic Director at Long Beach State, Temple, and Northeastern.  Game of catch in Central Park with Alex Belth, followed by dinner at a restaurant of his choice.</p>

<p><u>Friday, May 9</u></p>

<p>Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets, Shea Stadium, 7:10 p.m. (with Alex and Darren Viola, aka Repoz).</p>

<p><u>Saturday, May 10</u></p>

<p>Golf with Dave O’Brien and son at his country club in Philadelphia.  (Joe was the captain of his golf club in high school and is currently the Assistant General Manager at Riverwalk Golf Course in San Diego.)</p>

<p><u>Sunday, May 11</u></p>

<p>Depart JFK @ 12:00 p.m.<br />
Arrive LGB @ 2:49 p.m.</p>

<p>Mother's Day dinner with my favorite wife and Joe's favorite mom.  </p>

<p>While it's always good to be back home, I think Joe and I are going to grin and bear the next nine days first.  There will be a lot of grinning, I'm sure of that, and it looks as if we may have to bear a lot of bad weather &ndash; or just "weather" as those outside of Southern California call it.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/baseball_trip_o.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/baseball_trip_o.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Sat, 03 May 2008 00:14:38 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Welcoming the Lederers</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The first time Rich and I had occasion to meet up with one another was back in August of 2005.  We took in a Red Sox / Angels game in Anaheim.  <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/08/friends.php">Rich recapped that evening in this piece</a>.  The last time we got together was in February when I was in California visiting my wife's family.  With my father-in-law and another friend of mine, we played golf at Trump National in Los Angeles (see below), a beautiful piece of property with all 18 holes overlooking the Pacific Ocean but a course design that leaves a bit to be desired (especially when you consider the exorbitant price).  </p>

<center><img src="http://render-2.snapfish.com/render2/is=Yup6aQQ%7C%3Dup6RKKt%3Axxr%3D0-qpDPfRt7Pf7mrPfrj7t%3DzrRfDUX%3AeQaQxg%3Dr%3F87KR6xqpxQQPlxo0Jxae0xv8uOc5xQQQGG0JnJll0QqpfVtB%3F*KUp7BHSHqqy7XH6gX0QPGe%7CRup6lQQ%7C/of=50,590,442" border=2/></center>

<p>In between, Rich attended both my engagement party and wedding (both in Long Beach, Rich's hometown), and we have been able to meet up a couple of other times as well when I was on the west coast.  </p>

<p>Well, this weekend, Rich and I will be hanging out on my turf.  Rich and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/06/cool_papa_dwell_1.php">his son Joe</a> will be heading east for a dream father/son baseball trip that kicks off right here in Boston.  Rich is posting his full itinerary tomorrow before he gets on the plane to Boston, but I just wanted to mention today that much of the next week's writings will be devoted to our time together here in Boston, and subsequently Rich and Joe's adventures thereafter.  </p>

<p>It kicks off Sunday when we will be having breakfast with a few members of Boston's front office before the Rays/Sox tilt at 1:35.  Check back tomorrow for more on the Lederers' trip east.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/_this_weekend_t.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/_this_weekend_t.php</guid>
<category>Change-Up</category>
<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 08:20:33 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>April&apos;s In the Books</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>In an effort not to further anger the estimable <a href="http://deadspin.com/385770/bissinger-vs-leitch">Buzz Bissinger</a>, I think I am going to go with some straight data presentation today and steer clear of any opinion or interpretation.  We are one month into the season, a fun point in time to look at the leaderboard, store it away and then revisit it once again in a few months and then again at the end of the season.  </p>

<p>There are pretty much exactly six months in a MLB season.  At the end of the year, it's fun to look at how teams and players fared on a month-to-month basis.  A hot or cold June often goes unnoticed because it is just a portion of that team or player's productivity.  June is no different than April, or at least it shouldn't be.  What makes it different in terms of perception, however, is that one's April stats, on May 1, are <em>his stats</em>.</p>

<p>Anyway, just for fun, here are some miscellaneous leaders through the first month of the 2008 season.</p>

<p>==========</p>

<p><strong>Offense</strong></p>

<p>AL Team Runs</p>

<pre>
Detroit    142
Boston     136
LA Angels  134
White Sox  134
Oakland    134
</pre>

<p>NL Team Runs</p>

<pre>
Cubs       171
D-Backs    165
Dodgers    137
Cards      135
Phillies   133
</pre>

<p>AL OPS </p>

<pre>
DET  .792
TEX  .778
BOS  .774
LAA  .767
CHW  .749
</pre>

<p>NL OPS</p>

<pre>
CHC  .828
ARI  .813
STL  .788
PHI  .780
ATL  .778
</pre>

<p>AL Individual OPS</p>

<pre>
Quentin   1.052
Hinske    1.046
M. Ramrz  1.029
Kotchman   .999
Hamilton   .970
</pre>

<p>NL Individual OPS</p>

<pre>
Utley      1.195
C. Jones   1.145
Burrell    1.126
D. Lee     1.118
Pujols     1.117
</pre>

<p>AL Individual Isolated Power</p>

<pre>
Hinske      .347
Quentin     .321
M. Ramrz    .276
Crede       .269
Thome       .261
Hamilton    .261 
</pre>

<p>NL Individual Isolated Power</p>

<pre>
Utley       .405
Burrell     .348
Berkman     .347
D. Lee      .318
McLouth     .315
</pre>

<p>==========</p>

<p><strong>Pitcing / Defense</strong></p>

<p>AL Team ERA</p>

<pre>
OAK  3.22
TB   3.68
TOR  3.75
CHW  3.78
CLE  4.06
</pre>

<p>NL Team ERA</p>

<pre>
ARI  3.25
STL  3.41
LAD  3.56
NYM  3.66
ATL  3.68
</pre>

<p>AL K/BB</p>

<pre>
OAK  2.30
MIN  2.24
KC   2.12
TOR  2.02
CHW  1.98
</pre>

<p>NL K/BB</p>

<pre>
CIN  2.49
ARI  2.24
STL  2.19
LAD  2.18
HOU  2.03
</pre>

<p>AL Individual ERA</p>

<pre>
C. Lee      0.96
Greinke     1.25
Saunders    2.08
King Felix  2.22
E. Santana  2.48
</pre>

<p>NL Individual ERA</p>

<pre>
Volquez     1.23
Sheets      1.64
Lincecum    1.73
Webb        1.98
Peavy       2.09
</pre>

<p>AL Individual K/BB</p>

<pre>
Lee        16.00
Baker       5.40
Halladay    4.43
Beckett     4.14
Vazquez     3.70
</pre>

<p>NL Individual K/BB</p>

<pre>
Cueto     5.50
Santana   4.88
Wandy     4.80
Smoltz    4.50
Haren     4.14
</pre>

<p>AL Defensive Efficiency</p>

<pre>
BAL   .740
TB    .730
DET   .721
OAK   .718
BOS   .715
</pre>

<p>NL Defensive Efficiency</p>

<pre>
ARI  .737
PHI  .723
STL  .723
CHC  .722
ATL  .721
</pre>

<p>=========</p>

<p>What sticks out for me is just how much the cream has risen to the top in the National League early on while the AL leaderboard almost certainly does not look like what it will in September.</p>

<p>How about you?  Who is for real?  Who will fade? </p>

<p><br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/aprils_in_the_b.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/05/aprils_in_the_b.php</guid>
<category>Change-Up</category>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 00:39:22 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>Picking Apart the Draft: 2004</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it <I>should</i> be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. Previously, I looked at the drafts from 2000 to 2003.</p>

<p>As we get closer to 2008 while looking back at recent drafts, it gets harder to analyze the picks simply because they have not had as much time to develop. But that doesn’t mean it’s not still fun to try. As such, this will be the fifth and final part of the series. 2004, like 2002, resulted in a poor draft decision with the No. 1 overall pick. The choice to take <B>Matt Bush</B> first overall was a signability decision and an opportunity for good PR by grabbing a local player. But as we know by now, having looked back at four other recent drafts, signability choices rarely work out, and the same can be said for picking players based on public relations. When you have the rare opportunity to choose the best player in the nation, <u>do it right.</u> </p>

<p>The first 10 picks of the 2004 draft broke down like this:</p>

<pre>
1. San Diego   Matt Bush, SS           California high school
2. Detroit     Justin Verlander, RHP   Old Dominion University
3. NY Mets     Philip Humber, RHP      Rice University
4. Tampa Bay   Jeff Niemann, RHP       Rice University
5. Milwaukee   Mark Rogers, RHP        Maine high school
6. Cleveland   Jeremy Sowers, LHP      Vanderbilt University
7. Cincinnati  Homer Bailey, RHP       Texas high school
8. Baltimore   Wade Townsend, RHP      Rice University
9. Colorado    Chris Nelson, SS        Georgia high school
10. Texas      Thomas Diamond, RHP     University of New Orleans
</pre>

<p>Interestingly, only one player (Verlander) from the Top 10 of the 2004 draft has established himself in the majors. It’s still early, though, as I mentioned above. Bailey needs some more polish but he looks promising. Niemann finally earned a reprieve from his injury woes and had the opportunity to make a couple major league starts. Humber and Sowers look like they are going to top out as No. 4 starters, but that is more than can be said for Diamond, Townsend and Rogers.</p>

<p>As for the rest of the first round, Los Angeles (AL) took <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></B> 12th overall, Kansas City nabbed <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7399&position=DH" target="_blank">Billy Butler</a></B> at 14, Arizona took <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4251&position=SS" target="_blank">Stephen Drew</a></B> at 15 and New York (AL) got <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7450&position=P" target="_blank">Philip Hughes</a></B> at 23.</p>

<p>Let’s take another look at the Top 10:<br />
 <br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/456/456713.html>Matt Bush</a></B><br />
Above, I’ve already put my two cents in about the Padres’ decision to draft Bush. No matter how you slice it, a .219/.294/.276 line over four years is terrible. Luckily for the Padres, Bush had a killer arm and they had the option of moving him to mound. And things looked good in 2007 - in seven game he had a 1.25 ERA, 6.25 H/9, 2.45 BB/9 and 20.00 K/9 - and then he went and blew out his elbow throwing one of his high-90s fastballs. With any luck the Padres will have Bush back at full strength at the beginning of 2009, but he still faces a long road ahead when he’ll be 23 with 7.2 innings of pro experience on the mound.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8700&position=P" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></B><br />
By far and away the best pick of the draft. Verlander is an absolute stud with a power arm and durability. His biggest obstacle coming out of college was questionable command but that has not been a major issue in his pro career. </p>

<blockquote>Verlander might have the best pure stuff in the draft. He has a tall, upright delivery with a lighting-quick arm, and a fastball that tops out at 99 mph with hard run and sink. He complements it with a curveball that has good late depth and sharp bite, and a deceptive changeup that has fastball arm speed and late fade and sink. Verlander's biggest obstacle is his lack of command as he struggles to repeat his delivery.</blockquote>

<p>He made it to the majors in his first pro season and was a reliable starter by the end of his second. If signability was truly the only thing that kept the Padres from drafting him then they should be ashamed. Verlander even proved he wasn’t a difficult sign, and all about the money, as his family took over negotiations when it looked like his agent could, or would, not get a deal done. Imagine what he could do in Petco Park…</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8586&position=P" target="_blank">Philip Humber</a></B><br />
There are three Rice University alums in the Top 10 and Humber was supposed to be the “safest bet” among the three. Well, all three have disappointed mightily, although Humber and Niemann finally both have had a taste of the majors. Humber has gone through surgery since signing and his stuff is not the same as it was in college. As a result, he is now a fourth starter. But the Mets got value out of this pick as he was used to obtain <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P" target="_blank">Johan Santana</a></B> from the Minnesota Twins.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/435/435298.html>Jeff Niemann</a></B><br />
Unlike former Rice teammate Humber, Niemann has been able to avoid the knife but he has still battled through a litany of injuries that have slowed his career advancement to a crawl. He finally made his major league debut this season with Tampa Bay but he only has a short window to establish himself before the likes of <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/451/451584.html>Wade Davis</a></B>, <B>David Price</B> and <B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/459/459429.html>Jacob McGee</a></B> begin appearing on the scene. Niemann could end up as a dominating, late-game reliever.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/449/449161.html>Mark Rogers</a></B><br />
Rogers is yet another promising draft pick who has seen the knife since signing his first pro contract. He was an absolutely dominating prep hurler who has nasty stuff (a pro rate of 11.02 K/9) but he rarely knows where it’s going (career 6.25 BB/9). Rogers had shoulder surgery in 2007 and it remains to be seen how successful he’ll be when he comes back from it.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9083&position=P" target="_blank">Jeremy Sowers</a></B><br />
Sowers looked like he was going to be the steal of the draft. After turning down the Reds as a first rounder out of high school (20th overall), Sowers went sixth overall to Cleveland and make it to the majors in is second pro season after cruising through the minors and rarely facing adversity. In his first 14 pro starts, he posted a 3.57 ERA and allowed 8.66 H/9. The soft-tossing lefty, though, had only 3.57 K/9. The next season, he got tattooed and began to pitch away from contact – never a good sign for a guy like Sowers. His 6.42 ERA and 11.23 H/9 got him sent back to the minors after 13 starts and he has yet to re-surface in the majors on a permanent basis. </p>

<p><br />
<B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8362&position=P" target="_blank">Homer Bailey</a></B><br />
Bailey has been the recipient of a significant amount of hype… some of it is deserved, some of it not so much. There is no denying the fact that he has the stuff to be a monster at the major league level, but his control needs work and he is still learning the nuances of pitching. Being passed this spring by phenom <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6893&position=P" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a></B> was probably the best thing that could have happened to Bailey. It will allow the media spotlight to shy away from him a bit and give him some much-needed time at Triple-A to hone his game. So far this season in Triple-A things look very promising. The ERA is superficially nice, but the most impressive thing is the control: four walks in 26.1 innings. On the downside, he continues to be an extreme flyball pitcher (0.76 GO/AO) which can be very dangerous, especially in Cincinnati.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/450/450304.html>Wade Townsend</a></B><br />
Baltimore failed to sign Townsend out of Rice University, which may have actually been a good thing in the long run… although you really have to hate it when a team throws away a first round pick. Townsend ended up signing with Tampa Bay in the 2005 draft, after again going in the first round, but he blew out his elbow and needed surgery. He’s back pitching but he spent all of last year in A-ball as a 24-year-old. This season, he was pushed to Double-A, skipping over High-A ball, despite posting a 5.08 ERA in 2007, along with 4.65 BB/9 rate. So far this season, Townsend, now a reliever, has a 6.55 ERA in nine games with eight walks in 11 innings. No trio has disappointed this much since the monster that was <B><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_K">Wilson/Pulsipher/Isringhausen</a></B>.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/455/455126.html>Chris Nelson</a></B><br />
If you consider Bush as a pitcher even though he was a shortstop when drafted, Nelson was the only non-pitcher taken in the first 10 picks. Since signing, he has had two good years and two not-so-good years. It’s hard to know what exactly to expect from Nelson; is he a starter or a utility players? If you look at his line from High-A ball in 2007 - .289/.358/.503 - you would probably be inclined to say starter, but it was his third straight season in A-ball and Modesto is not the worst place to hit. So far this season, Nelson is hitting .250/.269/.361, which is less than inspiring <U>but</U> it has been only 17 games. The jury is still out on Nelson, but it’s safe to saw with <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></B> in Colorado, Nelson won’t be the starting shortstop any time soon.</p>

<p><br />
<B><a target="_blank" href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/435/435080.html>Thomas Diamond</a></B><br />
For whatever reason, the Rangers are just snakebitten with pitchers… If you don’t believe me, check out <B><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3990&position=P" target="_blank">Edinson Volquez</a></B> in Cincinnati… He would never have done that in Texas. That’s just way to it is, the way it has been, and the way it will probably continue to be. Diamond and his mid-90s fastball started out very well in pro ball and dominated the lower minors. Then he hit a wall in Double-A… then he blew out his elbow. Considering his control issues coming out of college, Diamond’s pro rate of 4.43 BB/9 isn’t all that bad and he also had a nice rate of 10.57 K/9. It might be a good idea to throw Diamond into the back end of the bullpen when he resumes throwing about the time he turns 25.</p>

<p><br />
<I>Thanks for reading our five-part series looking back at the Top 10 picks from the 2000-2004 amateur drafts.</I></p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/picking_apart_t_4.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/picking_apart_t_4.php</guid>
<category>Around the Minors</category>
<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:28:52 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title><![CDATA[Q&A with Dan Levitt &ndash; Ed Barrow: The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty]]></title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A longtime member of the Society for American Baseball Research, <a href="http://edwardbarrow.com/About_Dan.html">Daniel R. Levitt</a> has written <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/08/the_predictive_1.php">three</a> <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php">guest</a> <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/11/an_analysis_of.php">columns</a> for Baseball Analysts.  I first invited Dan after he and Mark Armour co-authored <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Paths-Glory-Great-Baseball-Teams/dp/1574888056/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1209444185&sr=1-1">Paths to Glory: How Great Baseball Teams Got That Way</a>, a winner of <a href="http://www.sabr.org/sabr.cfm?a=cms,c,778,40"><em>The Sporting News</em>-SABR Baseball Research Award</a>.</p>

<p><img src="http://baseballanalysts.com/Ed%20Barrow%20Bookcover.jpg" width="180" height="270" align=left hspace=12 />As a result, I took great interest when Levitt's latest book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ed-Barrow-Bulldog-Yankees-Dynasty/dp/0803229747/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1209443547&sr=8-1">Ed Barrow: The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty</a>, was released two weeks ago.  Although Barrow wrote a relatively short autobiography in 1951, Dan's book will undoubtedly go down as the definitive work on one of the most important baseball figures in the first half of the 20th century.  It is an extremely well-researched, detailed, and scholarly portrait not only of the larger-than-life Barrow but an inside look at the business of baseball and how the Yankees evolved into a powerhouse franchise. </p>

<p>Published by <a href="http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/catalog/productinfo.aspx?id=673413&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1">Nebraska Press</a>, the 427-page book includes an extensive appendix, complete with tables detailing salaries, team payrolls, financial statements, population and attendance comparisons, and transactions of that era.  The bibliography also provides a narrative that is more informative than the straightforward listing of resources found in most books.  You can check out the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0803229747/ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link">table of contents</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0803229747/ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link">index</a>, and the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0803229747/ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link">first chapter</a>, as well as an <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/book-review-ed-barrow/">outstanding review</a> by Steve Treder at <em>The Hardball Times</em>.</p>

<p>I conducted the following interview with Dan via email over the past several days.  It gives additional insight into Barrow and the 50 years he spent in baseball.  Pull up a chair and enjoy.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: You and Mark Armour co-authored <em>Paths to Glory: How Great Baseball Teams Got That Way</em>, a book that I bought, enjoyed reading, and have sitting on my shelf in my baseball library here at home.  I can't help but think that this book must have had a big influence on your decision to pursue writing a comprehensive biography on <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Ed_Barrow">Edward Grant Barrow</a>.<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Absolutely.  My interest has always focused on team building, and <em>Paths to Glory</em> represented our systematic look at the issue.  It was a natural follow up to take a closer look at the one of the most successful dynasties in American sports history.  Barrow played the key role in assembling and maintaining it, and &ndash; fortunately for my writing career &ndash; was probably the most significant baseball executive without a full length biography. <br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: Ed Barrow did just about everything in the minor and major leagues except play the game.  What would you say what his single greatest accomplishment?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  In his fifty years in baseball Barrow had many accomplishments and, of course, several failures.  I would say his greatest accomplishment was bringing professional administration to the Yankee front office at a time when few other franchises recognized its necessity.  By this I mean he assumed responsibility for executive action (e.g. hiring the best scouts and manager, acquiring the best players, and never losing sight of the longer term) and then willingly delegating to his charges and listening to their advice.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: The image of Barrow and a half dozen Yankees players on the cover of your book is a classic.  I don't recall ever seeing it colorized like that and must admit it does wonders for that old photo.<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  I really like the cover photo, too.  It shows Barrow with six of his star players, five of whom were landed by the Yankees' scouts.  Barrow was particularly proud, and rightfully so, of the scouting department he developed and oversaw.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: Your subtitle "The Bulldog Who Built the Yankees' First Dynasty" suggests that the Bronx Bombers have had multiple dynasties.  How would you define these dynasties and what was Barrow's role in each of them?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  There is no official definition, of course, but I identify the first Yankees' dynasty as the period from 1921 through the end of WWII in which they won 14 pennants and 10 World Series.  Not surprisingly, this era corresponded to Barrow's tenure with the club.  In early 1945 the Yankees were sold to a new ownership entity ending Barrow's term at the helm and a long period of stability.  The mercurial Larry MacPhail's approach to running a front office was materially different from Barrow's.  By the time MacPhail left and George Weiss took over, the post-war bonus-baby era of talent acquisition was in place.  In sum, the huge disruption caused to American life by WWII, the dramatic change in Yankee ownership, a change of managers, and the post-war change in talent acquisition and wide-spread expansion of the farm system throughout baseball makes the period around the end of WWII a natural demarcation point.</p>

<p>Within Barrow's "first dynasty" I would suggest there were really three different phases: 1921 - 1923, 1926 - 1928, and 1936 - 1943.  Much of Barrow's genius lay is reading the environment correctly so that he could build and then rebuild on the fly.  After joining the Yankees, Barrow spent roughly $450,000 to buy up the rest of Boston owner Harry Frazee's best players.  This avenue dried up in 1923 when Frazee sold the team &ndash; he was out of good players by this time anyway &ndash; and other major league teams were not sellers during the roaring twenties.  To restock his team in the mid-1920s Barrow assembled a terrific team of scouts and bought top talent from the independent minors.  In the 1930s the onset of the Depression led to new rules regarding the ownership of minor league franchises.  With these revised, more favorable rules in place, owner Jacob Ruppert demanded Barrow start a farm system.  Barrow quickly developed the best minor league organization in the league while his scouts redirected their efforts to nation's best amateurs to stock it.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: How would you compare and contrast Barrow and Branch Rickey, who has been given a lot of credit for creating a competitive advantage for the Cardinals by developing the farm system at or about the same time?</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>: Rickey's genius was more creative; Barrow's more in the realm of administrative excellence in creating an adaptable, efficient organization.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: The Yankees never won a pennant until Barrow was hired as the club's general manager after the 1920 season.  New York won the American League pennant in 1921 and 1922, and then captured its first World Series title in 1923.  A cynic might say he piggybacked on Babe Ruth and just happened to be at the right place at the right time.  No?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  First of all: no question that one of the best ways to look smart is to take over a team that has the Babe.  </p>

<p>That said, the team that won the Yankees first World Series in 1923 was materially different than the one Barrow inherited after the 1920 season.  Among the position players, in addition to Ruth, only Bob Meusel and Wally Pipp started for both; among the starting rotation Bob Shawkey was the only one common to both squads.  Barrow clearly turned the team over in his first three years at helm, mostly by acquiring the rest of Boston's good players.<br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: Ed Barrow managed Ruth in 1918 and 1919 when the latter was playing for the Red Sox.  It was during this time when Ruth was spending less time as a pitcher and more time as an outfielder.  How much influence did Barrow have in converting the Babe from one of the best pitchers in the league to the premier slugger in the game?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Barrow was the key actor in moving the Babe from pitcher to the field. To appreciate the boldness of this move one needs to first realize that Ruth was an exceptional pitcher: in 1916 he completed the season 23-12 while leading the league with a 1.75 ERA; the next year he finished second in the league in wins with a 24-13 record and seventh in ERA at 2.01.  Outfielder Harry Hooper (who also acted as something of a bench coach for Barrow &ndash; remember, Barrow was seven years removed from managing and thirteen from managing in the majors) argued that Ruth’s prodigious hitting would make him more valuable as a regular in the field.  On May 6, 1918 with first baseman Dick Hoblitzel nursing an injured finger, Barrow started Ruth at first base, his first non-pitching appearance in the field after more than three years in the Majors. Ruth made Barrow and Hooper look like geniuses, going two-for-four with a home run. Over the next several weeks Barrow often used Ruth in the field when he was not pitching, mostly in left field after Hoblitzel returned. </p>

<p>Barrow has rightfully received widespread credit for converting Ruth to the field.  Hooper certainly deserves recognition for realizing Ruth’s potential as a regular and pushing for it, but Barrow warrants the bulk of the acclaim. When a decision has a clearly identifiable decision maker who has both the authority and the responsibility to make it, that person deserves most of the credit for a successful outcome and the blame for an unsuccessful one.  Had the second-best pitcher in baseball (to Walter Johnson) underperformed in his new role and then returned to the mound at anything less than his previous ability, it would have been Barrow who suffered the condemnation and abuse from the fans, the press, and, perhaps most importantly, his players.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>:  The careers of Barrow and Ruth are sure intertwined.  It would be impossible to write a biography about one and not talk about the other quite extensively.  What was the relationship between the two?  </p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>:  Barrow always appreciated Ruth's talents &ndash; for example, even in the deadball era when small-ball was king, Barrow didn't worry about the strikeouts that came with Ruth's power.  But he never really warmed to Ruth's personality like others did, notably Yankee owner Jacob Ruppert.</p>

<p>Ruth was immature, self-centered and somewhat naïve in his approach to life, but he could also be quite generous.  Furthermore, Ruth had a surprisingly sophisticated appreciation of his celebrity status.  The driven, determined Barrow, however, could never get past the immaturity and respect the happy-go-lucky Ruth as an adult.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: I know you wrote about the time Barrow challenged Ruth to a fight.  What was that all about?</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>:  In the spring of 1919 Ruth was doing his best to enjoy the nightlife and ignoring training camp rules.  Once the season started Barrow assigned coach Dan Howley as his roommate to help restrain him.  Despite Howley's proclamation that: "I’ll take care of that guy if I have to put a ring through his nose," Ruth's late night escapades continued.  One evening early in the season Barrow decided to catch Ruth at his late-night dalliances.  When the hotel porter informed Barrow at 6:00 AM that Ruth had just returned, he went down to Ruth’s room, where the lights were on and he could hear voices. After knocking, Barrow burst into the room and found Ruth in bed smoking a pipe with the covers pulled up to his neck and Howley hiding in the bathroom.</p>

<p>Later that morning at the ballpark while Ruth dressed with his teammates, Barrow locked the door and lambasted his team for their off-field shenanigans, directing his remarks mainly at Ruth. After tolerating the tongue-lashing for some time, Ruth fired back, threatening to punch Barrow in the nose. This was almost certainly the reaction the physical Barrow was agitating for. He ordered the rest of the players to head out to the field after they finished dressing and offered to fight Ruth. Ruth ignored the challenge and ran out to the field with his teammates.  Barrow then sent Ruth back to the clubhouse, ordered him to take off his uniform, and suspended him.  On the train back to New York, the forlorn Ruth approached Barrow regarding his reinstatement. The manager and his incorrigible star reached an unusual détente: Ruth agreed to leave a note in Barrow's hotel box with the time he returned, and Barrow would not challenge him on it.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: Speaking of time, until Terry Francona's success with the Red Sox in 2004, it was Barrow who last managed Boston to a World Series Championship.  <br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Barrow assumed Boston's helm in January 1918.  That off-season the team made a number of off-season player moves, some before Barrow arrived and some after.  Despite not having managed in the major leagues since 1904, he successfully integrated a host of new players into his team.  Barrow also benefited from the fact that the Red Sox lost fewer players to WWI and the essential war industries than other top clubs.</p>

<p>The 1918 season itself was full of controversy.  Barrow had several well publicized run-ins with Ruth, who even jumped the team at one point.  Baseball-wide matters related to World War I brought further discord.  American League president Ban Johnson's clumsy response to the government's "work or fight" order, requiring baseball players to either enlist or join an essential war industry, opened the first critical rift between the dictatorial president and his owners.</p>

<p>The confusion and quarrelling carried over into the World Series.  Frazee complained about the distribution of games: three in Chicago followed by four in Boston due to wartime travel restrictions.  Game five was nearly postponed by a threatened player's strike over a shameful reduction in their World Series shares.  In the end Barrow's Red Sox prevailed four games to two despite scoring only six earned runs (nine overall).<br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: Amazing.  After winning the World Series in 1918, the Red Sox struggled with losing records in 1919 and 1920 under the leadership of Barrow.  Ruth was sold to the Yankees after the 1919 season so I can understand why Boston lost more games than it won in 1920.  But why did the team do so poorly in 1919 after winning it all the year before?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  The Red Sox regressed both offensively and defensively.  Despite Barrow recognizing the ability of future Hall of Famer Herb Pennock and inserting him into the rotation, the pitching staff collapsed, falling to seventh in the league in ERA.  Key rotation starter Joe Bush missed nearly entire season with shoulder problems, Sam Jones turned in possibly his worst season, and Frazee sold Carl Mays amid a huge uproar in July. On offense, Ruth was the lone bright spot. No other player recorded a slugging percentage above .375. And although home runs were less common in 1919, it is still shocking that the rest of the team combined for only four during the entire season.  Maybe even more basically, as players returned to baseball from the armed services and war related industries, other teams, particularly the Chicago White Sox, received a bigger boost than Boston. <br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: I wanted to ask you what made Barrow give up his uniform and a spot in the dugout for a suit and the title of general manager, but I see from the wonderful photos inside the book that Ed was one of those managers who chose to wear a pair of slacks, a coat, a tie, and a fedora rather than a baseball cap.<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Ever since his days working in and hanging around the Pittsburg sporting scene in the Gay Nineties, Barrow liked to dress well. <br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: Was Barrow's move as a manager of the Red Sox to general manager of the Yankees more a function of wanting to change roles or teams?</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>: The decision to move was as much engineered by Boston owner Harry Frazee and the Yankee owners, Jacob Ruppert and Tillinghast L'Hommedieu Huston, as by Barrow.  Frazee was in the process of dismantling his team, and no longer needed a high-profile, highly compensated manager.  The Yankee owners recognized the importance of professional administration to move beyond the limitations of operating like a small business and brought in Barrow to professionalize the front office.</p>

<p>Barrow certainly would have had mixed feelings about the job change.  While he recognized that his days in Boston were numbered as Frazee scaled back the financial commitment and expectations for his team, the move would not have been viewed as a promotion.  His title in New York would be "business manager," a role that traditionally involved back office duties (scheduling travel, overseeing stadium operations, managing uniforms, bats and balls, etc.) and not the front office functions associated with player transactions.  Barrow, however, lived in New York, and the Yankees offered a generous salary and, more importantly, expanded responsibilities that fell within the purview of a modern general manager &ndash; he would in fact be a de facto GM.  Barrow prided himself on both his organizational abilities and his player-evaluation skills; the Yankees position offered him the opportunity to employ both. </p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: Using newly available material from the New York Yankee financial records and previously unexplored financial data from 1951 Congressional hearings, you delved into the economic environment of baseball over the first half of the twentieth century.  What was the most enlightening thing you learned about the Yankees?</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>:  Two things stand out.  First, the Yankees reinvested their profits in the team while other franchises often distributed theirs out to the team's owners, and second, the Yankees consistently paid the highest salaries.</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: Sounds like a winning strategy to me.  You covered the fascinating story about the sale of the Yankees to a syndicate of Del Webb, Dan Topping and Larry MacPhail at a war-depressed price in 1945.  What was Barrow’s involvement in that deal?</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>:  When Yankee owner Jacob Ruppert died in January 1939, ownership of the Yankees passed to a trust.  The trust named Barrow president of the Yankees, and for several years he sat at the pinnacle of his beloved franchise.  Estate tax issues quickly materialized, however, and the trust began evaluating sale options for the Yankees.  Unfortunately, America's entry into World War II in December 1941 virtually eliminated all non-war related economic activity. </p>

<p>Nevertheless, the estate tax issues could not be postponed indefinitely, and Barrow and the trust continued their search for a buyer.  Barrow even approached his friend Tom Yawkey, owner of the Boston Red Sox, to see if there was some way for Yawkey to sell the Red Sox and buy the Yankees.  Eventually the sale options were reduced to a single entity: a triumvirate of construction magnate Del Webb, wealthy sportsman Dan Topping, and baseball maverick Larry MacPhail.  Barrow and MacPhail had feuded publicly for many years and Barrow hated to see "his" team go to his rival. At one point early in the sale negotiations, Barrow declared that MacPhail would take control of the franchise "over his [Barrow's] dead body."  But Barrow could no longer control the process, and in January 1945 the trust sold the Yankee organization to the three for the war-depressed price of only $2.8 million.  </p>

<p>Barrow had purchased a ten percent interest in the team back in the early 1920s based on a valuation of $2.5 million that Ruppert had set when he bought out his partner.  For the price (and Barrow's interest) to have barely increased after he spent 20 years turning the franchise into one of the gems of American sports galled him immensely.  </p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: I bet.  Going back to Barrow's early years, did he really "discover" Honus Wagner?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Barrow certainly liked to claim he did, but the truth is a little more nuanced.  In 1895, Barrow's first year in Organized Baseball, he owned and managed a team in Wheeling, West Virginia, first in the Inter-State League and then the Iron and Oil League.  Wagner also played in these leagues, and Barrow would certainly have noticed him, although his older brother, Al, was generally viewed as the bigger star. </p>

<p>When the Iron and Oil League folded after the season, both Barrow and Wagner were technically without a team.  For 1896 Barrow bought the Paterson, New Jersey franchise in the Atlantic League.  To stock his team Barrow, who lived in Pittsburgh at the time, remembered Wagner, who lived in nearby Carnegie.   With a little encouragement from a local promoter, Barrow sought out Wagner and signed him for $125 per month, $25 above the monthly salary limit of $100.  A year-and-a-half later Barrow sold Wagner to the major leagues for $2,100, a hefty price for the time.  Barrow's claim that he discovered Wagner is something of an overstatement; Wagner had already played in Organized Baseball and other teams were certainly sniffing around.  Nevertheless, it was Barrow who most clearly recognized the ability of this free agent and snatched him up for his team. <br />
 <br />
<strong>Rich</strong>: Barrow was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1953, six months before his death.  What did that honor mean to him?<br />
 <br />
<strong>Dan</strong>:  Barrow’s ego and self-worth were completely wrapped up in his baseball success. It is impossible to overstate what his election meant to the eighty-five-year-old Barrow. His wife observed that being chosen for the Hall “kept him alive longer than he would have lived otherwise.”</p>

<p><strong>Rich</strong>: Well, Barrow lived a long and full life.  And you have captured it like no one before and probably no one ever again.  Your book is an important and fascinating read for Yankees and Red Sox fans, as well as students of baseball history.</p>

<p><strong>Dan</strong>:  Thank you.  Barrow was at the center of many of the key events of the first half of the twentieth century.  Studying his life helps answer two of the overarching baseball questions of the era:  how did baseball's competitive economic environment evolve and how did the Yankees come to dominate it.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/qa_with_dan_lev.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/qa_with_dan_lev.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 29 Apr 2008 00:15:58 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>April Fools</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The first month of the season is almost behind us.  We know who has performed well: <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/u/utleych01.shtml"><b>Chase Utley</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesch06.shtml"><b>Chipper Jones</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burrepa01.shtml"><b>Pat Burrell</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pujolal01.shtml"><b>Albert Pujols</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leede02.shtml"><b>Derrek Lee</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirha01.shtml"><b>Hanley Ramirez</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/furcara02.shtml"><b>Rafael Furcal</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/berkmla01.shtml"><b>Lance Berkman</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mclouna01.shtml"><b>Nate McLouth</b></A>, and <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirma02.shtml"><b>Manny Ramirez</b></A>, to name ten hitters; plus <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Cliff+Lee"><b>Cliff Lee</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sheetbe01.shtml"><b>Ben Sheets</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/greinza01.shtml"><b>Zack Greinke</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/volqued01.shtml"><b>Edinson Volquez</b></A>, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/linceti01.shtml"><b>Tim Lincecum</b></A>, and <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/webbbr01.shtml"><b>Brandon Webb</b></A>, as among the half dozen best pitchers in the early going.</p>

<p>But which players have put up the worst numbers during April?</p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nixja01.shtml"><b>Jayson Nix</b></A>: .111/.216/.133 with 1 XBH in 51 PA.  Nix has gone 0-for-17 since his last hit on April 13.  Although the rookie hit .256/.321/.399 over seven minor-league seasons, he repeated AA and AAA along the way to the majors.  His numbers were not particularly impressive last year playing in a friendly ballpark (Colorado Springs) and league environment (PCL).  There is more reason for skepticism than optimism here.</p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/penato02.shtml"><b>Tony Pena Jr.</b></A>: .149/.171/.194 with 2 BB and 16 SO in 71 PA.  Pena has never shown a proclivity for hitting.  He put up a MiL line of .252/.282/.332 with 102 BB and 528 SO in 2698 plate appearances.  He doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, and doesn't walk.  Unless Pena is the greatest fielding shortstop in the history of baseball, he simply can't play.</p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rossco01.shtml"><b>Cody Ross</b></A>: .149/.160/.213 with 1 BB and 6 SO in 50 PA.  Ross put up terrific numbers (.335/.411/.653) last year but did so in only 197 plate appearances.  The 27-year-old outfielder has shown an ability to hit for some power in the past but has never hit for much of an average aside from his "breakout" last season.  At best, Ross is a fourth or fifth outfielder, depending on whether he plays for a contending team or not.</p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/penawi01.shtml"><b>Wily Mo Pena</b></A>: .170/.220/.170  with 0 XBH, 3 BB and 15 SO in 50 PA.  The Pena name isn't doing too well this season.  I have never drunk the WMP Kool-Aid.  Sure, Pena can hit for power, but he strikes out way too much for my tastes, especially given his anemic walk rate.  His plate discipline and pitch recognition skills are lacking (swung and missed at 31% of strikes over the course of his career vs. a MLB average of 14%), and I would be surprised if he becomes much more than a platoon player.   </p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gorzeto01.shtml"><b>Tom Gorzelanny</b></A>: 1-3, 8.46 ERA with 22 BB and 13 SO in 22.1 IP.  Gorzelanny has been <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=gorzeto01&t=p&year=2008">drilled twice by the Cubs</a> so it may be more team specific than anything else.  However, the lefty's K/BB ratio is a bit alarming and should be watched closely over his next few starts. </p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rogerke01.shtml"><b>Kenny Rogers</b></A>: 1-3, 7.66 ERA with 15 BB and 9 SO in 24.2 IP.  The 43-year-old may be at the end of the road unless <strong>Jim Leyland</strong> wants to convert him to a LOOGY.  Righthanded batters are ripping him to the tune of .356/.443/.562.  You can only get by so long on guile as opposed to stuff and command.</p>

<p><li><A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jennija01.shtml"><b>Jason Jennings</b></A>: 0-4, 7.46 ERA with 17 BB, 12 SO, and 8 HR in 25.1 IP.  The 29-year-old righthander has spent his career pitching in hitter-friendly ballparks (Colorado, Houston, and Texas) but has has gone from a league-average or better pitcher to replacement level or worse since the end of the 2006 season.  At his current pace, Jennings will be hoping and praying that a team will sign him to a major-league contract next year.</p>

<p>Among the biggest names, <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/canoro01.shtml"><b>Robinson Cano</b></A> (.158/.216/.221), <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriaal01.shtml"><b>Alfonso Soriano</b></A> (.175/.230/.298), <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/tulowtr01.shtml"><b>Troy Tulowitzki</b></A> (.157/.225/.245), <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml"><b>Andruw Jones</b></A> (.159/.266/.256), and <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sheffga01.shtml"><b>Gary Sheffield</b></A> (.159/.321/.254) are also feeling the summer heat earlier than normal.</p>

<p>I would like to finish with three off-the-field personnel:</p>

<p><li><strong>J.P. Ricciardi</strong>: Signed <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Frank+Thomas"><b>Frank Thomas</b></A> to a minimum guaranteed contract of $18 million ($9.12M signing bonus plus $1M salary in 2007 and $8M in 2008), then released him on 4/20/08 after The Big Hurt fulfilled just one year and three weeks of the two-year deal.  </p>

<p>Ricciardi worked for but apparently didn't learn much from <strong>Billy Beane</strong>, who inked Thomas to favorable terms before and after J.P.  To wit, Beane got a .270/.381/.545 (140 OPS+) season out of Thomas in 2006 for $3.2M ($500,000 salary plus $2.7M in roster, performance, and award bonuses), received a sandwich round draft pick in 2007 as compensation for losing him via free agency, and swooped in and signed the future Hall of Famer last Thursday for $390,000 (pro-rated share of the MLB minimum) for the remainder of 2008.  Buy low, sell high, and buy low a second time.  Now that is Moneyball!</p>

<p><li><strong>Dave Littlefield</strong>: The former Pittsburgh GM really qualified as a July 2007 fool, but it bears repeating that Littlefield acquired <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morrima01.shtml"><b>Matt Morris</b></A> right before the trading deadline last year and, in so doing, assumed the remaining portion of his contract in full.</p>

<p>Now that Morris has been released, we can tally up his performance (3-8, 7.02 ERA over 16 GS and 84.1 IP) vs. the cost (approximately $14M).  Considering the money involved, that deal has to go down as one of the dumbest in baseball history &ndash; and not with the benefit of hindsight like so many transactions.  This one was a disaster from the get go.  It was universally panned and <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/08/wtf.php">no one did a better job than our own Patrick Sullivan</a>.</p>

<p><li>While <strong>Brian Sabean</strong> found a sucker for Matt Morris, he needs to look at himself in the mirror for agreeing to give <A HREF="http://www.baseball-reference.com/z/zitoba01.shtml"><b>Barry Zito</b></A> a seven-year deal worth a minimum of $126 million.  It was the largest-ever pitcher contract at signing.  The former Cy Young Award winner posted an 11-13 win-loss record and 4.53 ERA with mediocre peripherals in 2007 and has gotten off to a 0-6, 7.53 ERA, 15 BB, 11 SO in 28.2 IP start to the 2008 season.  </p>

<p>Let the countdown begin.  Seven baseball months down, 35 to go!  Or looked at it another way, the Giants have paid Zito about $12-13M thus far and still him more than $110 million.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/april_fools.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/april_fools.php</guid>
<category>Baseball Beat</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 28 Apr 2008 08:35:30 -0800</pubDate>
</item>
<item>
<title>North Siders Make Outs Less Frequently, Score Runs</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Though it's been said many times, many ways, one would find themselves hard-pressed to exemplify the merits of getting on base better than the Chicago Cubs of the last five seasons or so.  Season after season, the likes of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leede02.shtml"><strong>Derrek Lee</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirar01.shtml"><strong>Aramis Ramirez</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/a/aloumo01.shtml"><strong>Moises Alou</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sosasa01.shtml"><strong>Sammy Sosa</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnije01.shtml"><strong>Jeromy Burnitz</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesja05.shtml"><strong>Jacque Jones</strong></a>, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriaal01.shtml"><strong>Alfonso Soriano</strong></a> and others have been banging out home runs for the Cubbies and yet, they have never really been among the Senior Circuit's most prolific run scoring teams.</p>

<p>Fans and baseball personnel alike, when acknowledging a quality offensive player, will often say, "that guy can hit."  For different individuals, it means different things but it almost surely means that a player can put a nice swing on a baseball.  Rarely - hell never - will you hear someone say "that guy can really create runs."  And yet, that is all a baseball player is charged with when he has a bat in his hands.  His mandate ought to be to do everything he can to help his team put runs on the scoreboard.</p>

<p>Jacque Jones has a gorgeous swing.  A classic lefty, to witness Jones catch a fastball flush and yank it out to right field is to enjoy one of the most pure moments there is in baseball.  Meanwhile, to watch Derrek Lee take four close pitches for balls while watching one strike go by can often lead to frustration.  After all, it's not just chicks.  We all dig the long ball.</p>

<p>But long ball has not been a problem for the Cubs, at least not for some of these recent Cubs teams.  They have demonstrated proficiency in slugging the baseball, but have time and again fallen short in getting men on base.  As a fan, this phenomenon does not necessarily trigger intuitive disappointment.  Heading to Wrigley, witnessing a couple of four-baggers and a four run output by the home team makes for an entertaining evening.</p>

<p>What Cubs fans are now learning is that watching the Cubbies hang a bunch of crooked numbers on the board also makes for an enjoyable time at the Friendly Confines.  Seven Cubs that log regular playing time have notched on-base percentages of greater than .380 in 2008.  </p>

<pre>
            OBP
Fukudome   .463
Soto       .447 
Lee        .413
Johnson    .394
Ramirez    .392
DeRosa     .389
Theriot    .384
</pre>    

<p>Avoiding outs leads to incremental opportunities for teammates and since most MLB'ers fall within a relatively narrow band of batting average output (say, .225 to .325 or so), more opportunities for other teammates means the law of averages will lead to more hits per game.  Moreover, when you do not make an out it means you reach base so that those incremental converted opportunities lead to more players crossing home plate.</p>

<p>To take it a few steps further, strike zone management is critical even within the context of one plate appearance.  Recognizing a ball and a strike allows a hitter to put a swing on balls that are tossed in there to be hit while letting pitches outside the zone to pass.  Jacque Jones often flails at bad pitches because he must hit from behind in the count.  Derrek Lee waits for his pitch and often creams it.  The final benefit, one pointed out by <a href="http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=167">John Dewan this week</a>, shows just how helpful making pitchers throw more pitches can be.  The more pitches you let go by, the more often you will get your pitch to hit, and the more pitches you see, as the game wears on you get into the dregs of other teams' pitching staffs (read: middle relievers) more quickly.</p>

<p>It would be difficult to overstate just how advantageous it is to field an offensive attack that possesses exceptional pitch recognition.  Let's look at how Cubs teams have stacked up over the last five seasons in various critical offensive categories:</p>

<pre>
        SLG   OBP   RS   PA/BB
2004     2     11    7   11.74
2005     2     11    9   13.16
2006    10     16   15   14.67
2007     8      9    8   11.44
2008     5      2    1    8.46
</pre>

<p>The slug, on-base and run scoring numbers are National League rankings.  The PA/BB number is simply their figure in that given season.  The 2008 PA/BB number is an obvious outlier, just as their on-base and run scoring rankings are.  The Cubs have slugged it in the recent past, but never put runs on the board like they have thus far in 2008.<br />
<strong><br />
Dusty Baker</strong>, the former Cubs Manager, has been on the record more times than we can seemingly keep track of touting the merits of "being aggressive" and denouncing those that reach base only to "clog" them.  Presented with the data above, one has to wonder how even Dusty would explain the formidability of the 2008 edition of the Cubs offense.</p>

<p>These guys must really be able to "hit".<br />
</p>]]></description>
<link>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/north_siders_ma.php</link>
<guid>http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/north_siders_ma.php</guid>
<category>Change-Up</category>
<pubDate>Sat, 26 Apr 2008 00:46:32 -0800</pubDate>
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