WTNYNovember 24, 2003
Looking Into Salaries (Part One)
By Bryan Smith

First of all, if you didn't check my weekend post, do so now. It has analysis on the Tino trade, Escobar and Appier signings, and as many rumors as I could think of.

This week will largely be devoted to suggestions my readers made, and next week I'll get into Organizational Meetings again. Today, by request of Avkash Patel of the Raindrops, I'm writing about future salaries. Part One will be looking into 2004 salaries of AL teams, Part Two will be for NL teams, and three will be seeing who is on the hook for how much after next season. The Yankees are a prime example, as they look to be $70M in the hole as early as 2005. Ouch.

OK, here we go (for this article I got lots of help from ESPN, this player salaries site, and the Transaction Guy)...

Anaheim Angels
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 68.325M

Being Payed in 2004: Kevin Appier (12), Ramon Ortiz (2.42), Aaron Sele (8.5), Troy Percival (7.5), Kelvim Escobar (6.25), Ben Molina (1.9), Troy Glaus (9), Garret Anderson (5), Darin Erstad (7.5), Tim Salmon (9.5)

Arbitration Eligible and Projected Salaries- Jarrod Washburn (5), Ben Weber (1.5), David Eckstein (2)

On the hook for: 78.07 currently

The Appier contract sucks, as the Angels have to pay him over ten million to pitch for Kansas City. The team has said they will raise payroll to 85-90 million next year, giving Stonemann about 7 million to work with. Remember this doesn't include any auto-renewals, which will drive payroll about about 2-3M. With these signed players, the team only lacks a 1B, SS, DH, and a little in the bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 67.5M

Signed in 2004: Omar Daal (4.5), Buddy Groom (3), Marty Cordova (3.5), David Segui (7)

Arbitration Eligible: Jay Gibbons (3), Jerry Hairston (2), Jason Johnson (5), Luis Matos (1.5), Mora (3), Brian Roberts (1), B.J. Ryan (750k), Willis Roberts (750k)

On the hook for: 35M currently

Although DavidSegui and Omar Daal will take up 11.5M to suck next season, the team will have about $30M to spend. I have assumed that Damian Moss will be non-tendered, which is a pretty safe assumption. With this taken into consideration, the team needs a C, 1B, 3B, RF, 2-3 starters, 2 MR. A lot.

Boston Red Sox
2003 Opening Day Payroll: $100.1M

Signed for 2004: Alan Embree (2.75), Derek Lowe (5), Pedro Martinez (17.5), Ramiro Mendoca (3.6), Mike Timlin (2.5), Tim Wakefield (4.35), Jason Varitek (6.7), Nomar Garciaparra (11.5), Kevin Millar (2.7), Bill Mueller (2.1), Johnny Damon (8), Manny Ramirez (20.5)

Arbitration Eligible: Byung-Hyun Kim (4), Doug Mirabelli (900k), Trot Nixon (5), David Ortiz (3), Scott Sauerbeck (1.6), Scott Williamson (2.5)

On the hook for: $104.2M currently

Uh-oh, Epstein is in trouble. With the current players on the roster, he is already over last season's Opening Day Payroll, and I'm assuming Jeremy Giambi and Damian Jackson get non-tendered. The team will go up to $110M next season, giving Theo next-to-nothing to spend. This signed team lacks a second basemen, no starters if Arroyo or Fossum gets a spot, and about 2-3MR.

Chicago White Sox
2003 Opening Day Payroll: $69M

Signed for 2004: Billy Koch (6.375), Esteban Loaiza (3.5), Paul Konerko (8), Jose Valentin (5), Frank Thomas (6), Magglio Ordonez (14)

Arbitration Eligible- Mark Buehrle (3.5), Brian Daubach (1), Jon Garland (2), Carlos Lee (5), Scott Schoenweis (1.5), Kelly Wunsch (1)

On the hook for: 56.875 currently

Ken Williams has about 10 million to spend this offseason, although he's trying to trade either Konerko, Lee, or Ordonez for more breathing room. This team would lack just a 2B, SP, CF, and set-up. Peter Gammons reports they are once again on the trail for Bartolo Colon, but then Carlos Lee and another player would have to get dealt. Is Colon that good? No. Sign Alomar, Ponson, and then worry about the rest after the non-tenders.

Cleveland Indians
2003 Opening Day Payroll: 47.6M

Signed for 2004: Milton Bradley (1.43), CC Sabathia (2.45), Mark Wohlers (1), Bob Wickman (5.3), Ricky Gutierrez (3.82), Omar Vizquel (7.5), Matt Lawton (6.75)

Arbitration Eligible: John McDonald (750k), David Riske (1.5), Jake Westbrook (1)

On the hook for: 31.5M currently

The team is likely slashing payroll again next year, giving Mark Shapiro about 40M to work with. The offense can pretty much be constructed as is, although Shapiro is said to want a 2B. I didn't touch the Danys Baez situation here, and he could pose even more problems. The team will need a 2B, SP, and MR with about $7M.

Detroit Tigers
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 46.5M

Signed for 2004: Matt Anderson (4.3), Danny Patterson (2.8), Bobby Higginson (8.85), Dmitri Young (7.125), Damion Easley (6.65), Eric Munson (?2?)

On the hook for: 31M

And this is about all Dambrowski has to work with, maybe about 4M on the free agent market. And he wants Miguel Tejada? Ha, possibly the funniest rumor in years. The team will need to build around auto-renewals, and likely non-tender Warren Morris is the only Tiger up for arbitration. It will be a slow few years in Detroit.

Kansas City Royals
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 43M

Signed for 2004: Kevin Appier (300k), Mike Sweeney (11)

Arbitration Eligible: Carlos Beltran (9), Darrell May (1), Kris Wilson (750k)

On the hook for: 22.9M

OK, so the Royals can easily keep Beltran and Sweeney, giving Baird about 10-12 million to patch the other holes. He is said to want a corner outfielder, although I would go with Guiel and DeJesus. Going after a C (Lopez?) would be a nice move, and the team needs another veteran starter and lots of relief help. This is a good team to do a column on, I'll do so soon.

Minnesota Twins
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 67.7M

Signed for 2004: Joe Mays (5.75), Eric Milton (9), Brad Radke (10), Christian Guzman (2.25), Corey Koskie (4.5), Jacque Jones (4.35), Torii Hunter (8)

Arbitration Eligible: Doug Mientkiewicz (3), Luis Rivas (1.5), JC Romero (1.5), Johan Santana (3)

On the hook for: 52.85M

This team may non-tender Luis Rivas and trade Mientkiewicz or Eric Milton. They are looking to re-sign both Shannon Stewart and Eddie Guardado, although I would just choose Stewart. I'll write more when I do their organizational meeting, but I have big plans for the Twinsies. But let me say, Terry Ryan has about 13M to spend on an open market.

New York Yankees
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 156.1M

Signed for 2004: Jose Contreras (7), Chris Hammond (2.4), Steve Karsay (5), Jon Lieber (2.45), Mike Mussina (14), Mariano Rivera (8.9), Jeff Weaver (6.25), Jorge Posada (6), Jason Giambi (10), Derek Jeter (17), Hideki Matsui (7), Bernie Williams (12)

Arbitration Eligible: Aaron Boone (4), David Delucci (1), Karim Garcia (1), Nick Johnson (3), Alfonso Soriano (8), Enrique Wilson (750k)

On the hook for: 115.75M currently

Well, even if they keep everyone currently on their roster, Brian Cashman has a lot to spend. Conceivably, this team could add Sheffield (12), Colon (12), and two good relievers (10?), and sit right around 150M for next season. Why trade Johnson or Soriano. Just go to camp with this team, and let the pieces fall into place. Believe me, they aren't far from more rings.

Oakland Athletics
2003 Opening Day Payroll: 49.3M

Signed for 2004: Tim Hudson (4.55), Jim Mecir (3.3), Mark Mulder (4.4), Barry Zito (2.7), Eric Chavez (5.2), Jermaine Dye (11), Mark Kotsay (5.5), Scott Hatteberg (2.325)

Arbitration Eligible: Chad Bradford (1.5), Erubiel Durazo (3), Frank Menechino (500k)

On the hook for: 43.975 currently

Well, Billy Beane doesn't have a lot more to work with. Phil Rogers suggestion the team may non-tender Durazo is stupid, although they may do so to Menechino. This team already would have a lineup and rotation in place, although signing a backup C (i.e. Pratt) would be a smart move. Basically that would leave Billy Beane $5M to spend on a bullpen, and more importantly a closer.

Seattle Mariners
2003 Opening Day Payroll: 87.1M

Signed for 2004: Jamie Moyer (6.5), Kaz Sasaki (8), Dan Wilson (3.5), Bret Boone (8), Edgar Martinez (4.5), Jeff Cirillo (6.725), Greg Colbrunn (1.75), John Olerud (7.7), Raul Ibanez (4.3)

Arbitration Eligible: Ben Davis (1), Ryan Franklin (3), Carlos Guillen (3), Gil Meche (2), Joel Pineiro (3), Ichiro Suzuki (7), Randy Winn (3.5)

On the hook for: 73.475M currently

In this, I assumed the team to non-tender Freddy Garcia and to keep Randy Winn, as those are the moves I would do. That leaves Bill Bavasi with a little more than $10M to sign a very good SS and to get some solid middle relief into that team. And, oh yeah, they could also use another cheaper starter. Well, I guess you can say I'm not bullish on the M's next season!

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2003 Opening Day Payroll: 18.75M

Signed for 2004: Tino Martinez (1.5), Paul Abbott (600k), John Halama (750k)

Arbitration Eligible- Marlon Anderson (1.5), Rob Bell (750k), Jeremi Gonzalez (2), Aubrey Huff (4), Adam Piatt (500k), Damian Rolls (500k)

On the hook for: 12M currently

I don't really know how much this leaves the inept Chuck LaMar, although I'm guessing about $13M on the current market. Spending that money on Tom Gordon, Mike Cameron, and Arthur Rhodes would put them very close to a .500 contender, although that is leaving the team without a 3B. Well, I know the first order of business should be firing LaMar!

Texas Rangers
2003 Opening Day Payroll: 72.941M

Signed for 2004: Alex Rodriguez (20), Chan Ho Park (13), Jay Powell (3), Jeff Zimmerman (4.3), Todd Van Poppell (3), Einar Diaz (2.5), Herbert Perry (1.7), Rusty Greer (7.4), Mark Teixeira (2.1??)

Arbitration Eligible- Francisco Cordero (1), Michael Young (2)

On the hook for: $60M currently

Well, I think the opening day figure for 72.941 is a little low, because I thought the team wanted to significantly drop payroll to 70M for this season? Well, John Hart has about 10M to spend on this team, which includes a cheap corner outfielder, Palmiero, and 1-2 cheap starters. I think Hicks might be unrealistic hoping for $70M next season, unless he really does accept that Manny for A-Rod deal.

Toronto Blue Jays
2003 Opening Day Payroll- 45M? No sources on this!

Signed for 2004: Pat Hentgen (2.2), Frank Catalanotto (2.3), Greg Myers (900k), Carlos Delgado (18.5), Eric Hinske (800k), Vernon Wells (700k)

Arbitration Eligible: Roy Halladay (10), Ted Lilly (2.5), Trever Miller (750k), Cliff Pollitte (1), Pete Walker (750k), Chris Woodward (1.5)

On the hook for: 41.9 currently

Well, there is still a lot to do for a team that is nearing last season's payroll. With about 5 million, Riccardi is hoping to add one more starter, a good late-inning reliever, and a middle infielder. Paul Quantrill is the reliever they are hoping for, but even Ben Sheets may be asking too much. Toronto will need a $50M payroll to succeed next season, and then the team will lose Carlos Delgado the following year and start to compete.

That's it. E-Mail me with any corrections, and let me reiterate this is vastly unofficial, I made up all the arbitration figures. But I did work hard on this, so don't bash me in e-mails too much! Have a good one...