Weekend BlogMarch 17, 2007
Starting Anew
By The Baseball Analysts Staff

  • One of this Spring's interesting subplots is the transition that Jonathan Papelbon is making from closer to starter. Papelbon was one of the most dominating pitchers coming out of anyone's pen last season and how he adjusts to a starting role will be worth watching. Despite what the northeast media circus would have you believe, however, Papelbon is not the only reliever to have experienced considerable success in 2006 who is making the switch for this coming campaign. Adam Wainwright, whose dominance throughout 2006's postseason helped propel St. Louis to a World Series crown, will also be a starter in 2007.

    The two could not have taken more different paths to get to where they are now. Papelbon was Boston's closer all of last season, dominating virtually everytime he was handed the ball until hurting his shoulder on September 1. For his part, Wainwright toiled in relative obscurity (otherwise known as "middle relief") for a club fighting to stay above .500. Still, they were both very effective in 2006.

                 G   IP   ER   H   BB   SO   WHIP
    Papelbon    59  68.3  7   40   13   75   0.77
    Wainwright  61  75.0  26  64   22   72   1.15

    Just as Papelbon's season crumbled, Wainwright's became interesting. Jason Isringhausen, the longtime St. Louis closer, finally shut it down after his September 6th appearance in Washington. He had battled injuries and ineffectiveness all season long. So for the stretch run, as St. Louis was looking to wrap up a Division crown, it was Wainwright who would be seeing St. Louis's higher leverage innings. He performed well enough to earn Tony LaRussa's confidence and would be entrusted as St. Louis's closer for the postseason.

    So while Papelbon's future hung in the balance and many wondered if his shoulder would heal in time for him to start the 2007 season, Wainwright emerged as one of the game's fiercest and most dominant relievers. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Wainwright's place in St. Louis baseball lore is secure. Wainwright threw just under 10 innings for St. Louis in the postseason, allowing no runs, just 9 baserunners while striking out 15. He notched four saves.

    This season both Wainwright and Papelbon come to Spring Training ready to take on broader responsibilities for their respective clubs. Neither has started regularly before in the Big Leagues, but something tells me both will acquit themselves just fine in their new roles.
    - Patrick Sullivan, 3/17/2007, 9:33 AM EST

  • Speaking of relievers turned starters, Braden Looper got pounded today although the Cardinals came from behind to pull out a 9-5 spring training victory over the Atlanta Braves. After retiring the first two hitters, the righthander gave up four runs before getting a third out in the first inning. He pitched three innings and did not allow a run in the second or third.

    Looper has now started four times this spring. His stats are as follows:

    IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO    ERA
    14  17   5    5    3    6   3.21

    St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan believes the 32-year-old Looper, who has appeared in 572 contests without a GS, can be an effective starter. Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round with the third overall pick of the 1996 amateur draft, Looper pitched four games for the Redbirds in 1998 before getting traded (along with Armando Almanza and Pablo Ozuna) to the Florida Marlins for Edgar Renteria. He tossed more than 70 games for the Fish every year from 1999-2003, then signed as a free agent with the New York Mets in January 2004. Braden served as the Mets closer for two years before reuniting with Duncan and Tony LaRussa.

    Looper has a career ERA of 3.57 and has never had a year where his ERA+ was worse than the league average. The eight-year veteran relies on a hard sinker and a split-fingered fastball to get more than his fair share of grounders. He tends to give up a lot of hits (617 in 607 1/3 career IP) and will need to keep the ball down to succeed in his new role. The cousin of Aaron Looper, who pitched six games for the Seattle Mariners in 2003, would do well to develop a changeup to improve his effectiveness vs. LHB:

               AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR    PA
    vs. RHB   .234  .297  .306  .603   16  1506
    vs. LHB   .306  .372  .464  .836   30  1107

    How Wainwright and Looper fare as starters will go a long way in determing the fate of the defending champs in 2007.
    - Rich Lederer, 3/17/07, 2:09 p.m. PST

  • Comments

    Rich wrote: "Braden Looper got pounded today in a 9-5 spring training loss to the Atlanta Braves." Pounded Looper was; lose the Cardinals didn't.

    You're right, Bill. I'm guilty of jumping to a conclusion here. I have fixed my error. Thanks.