Few in MLB can beat a well-located pitch down and away. I wanted to look up those who could, so I broke the plate area down into nine zones, scaling the vertical component of the pitch for the batter’s height. For this analysis, I decided to restrict my sample to only 2009 pitches at which the batter swung. Here’s a crude chart showing the percentage of swings in each zone and how batters fare when swinging, indicated by color.
Batters have the advantage when the pitch is middle-middle, and for the other eight zones, the run value is negative.
Getting right to the leaderboards. There are nine of these, but I’m going to leave the commentary short and I’ll leave a spreadsheet at the end.
Down-In
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Derrek Lee | 5.6 | 57 |
| David Wright | 3.8 | 72 |
| Corey Hart | 3.6 | 60 |
| Hunter Pence | 2.8 | 73 |
| Carlos Delgado | 2.6 | 11 |
| Chase Headley | -5.9 | 58 |
| Ryan Braun | -6.1 | 84 |
| Aubrey Huff | -6.2 | 56 |
| David Ortiz | -6.2 | 64 |
| Ryan Howard | -6.6 | 84 |
Ryan Howard and David Ortiz are similar type hitters who like the ball out over the plate but can get beat inside. Carlos Delgado hit a homer, three doubles and a single on his eleven swings at pitches down and in.
Down-Middle
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 10.6 | 193 |
| Brian Roberts | 9.9 | 204 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 9.7 | 191 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 6.9 | 150 |
| Nick Markakis | 6.8 | 160 |
| Garret Anderson | -11.7 | 174 |
| Nate McLouth | -12.3 | 125 |
| Jack Cust | -12.7 | 124 |
| Dan Uggla | -13.4 | 185 |
| Derek Jeter | -13.9 | 173 |
I’m surprised Derek Jeter’s on this list, as he’s a successful groundball hitter. Dan Uggla and Jack Cust on the other hand are fly ball hitters.
Down-Away
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.8 | 69 |
| Denard Span | 1.5 | 68 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 1.4 | 121 |
| Robinzon Diaz | 1.2 | 18 |
| Trevor Crowe | 1.2 | 17 |
| Hideki Matsui | -12.8 | 107 |
| Adam LaRoche | -13.4 | 145 |
| Jayson Werth | -13.5 | 138 |
| Ryan Howard | -13.8 | 231 |
| Brandon Inge | -14.0 | 120 |
It appears foot speed is instrumental if one is to succeed by swinging at pitches down and away. I’m assuming the highest percentage of grounders are on pitches in this location, and speed is important to get on base via the grounder. Pitching Howard down in the zone seems to be a good idea.
Middle-In
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Prado | 13.2 | 87 |
| Michael Young | 10.9 | 132 |
| James Loney | 10.2 | 83 |
| Mike Cameron | 8.8 | 113 |
| Derrek Lee | 8.3 | 116 |
| Willie Bloomquist | -7.1 | 121 |
| Lyle Overbay | -7.2 | 42 |
| Jeff Francoeur | -7.6 | 172 |
| Edgar Renteria | -8.5 | 132 |
| Mark DeRosa | -14.1 | 125 |
Derrek Lee likes the ball inside.
Middle-Middle
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 30.7 | 249 |
| Mark Teixeira | 29.9 | 294 |
| Ryan Braun | 29.6 | 281 |
| Adam Dunn | 25.3 | 294 |
| Andre Ethier | 25.2 | 323 |
| Augie Ojeda | -10.9 | 128 |
| Nick Punto | -11.3 | 191 |
| Luis Rodriguez | -11.8 | 129 |
| Ty Wigginton | -12.0 | 219 |
| Dioner Navarro | -13.1 | 174 |
This is clearly the most telling list in terms of quality of hitter. To be successful swinging the bat, you have to be able to hit the ball pitched down the middle.
Middle-Away
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Gonzalez | 8.2 | 156 |
| Robinson Cano | 7.2 | 175 |
| Ryan Braun | 7.2 | 101 |
| Nick Markakis | 6.3 | 178 |
| Brad Hawpe | 5.9 | 228 |
| Pedro Feliz | -10.5 | 129 |
| Jimmy Rollins | -10.7 | 301 |
| Chase Utley | -11.1 | 232 |
| Curtis Granderson | -13.3 | 252 |
| Aaron Hill | -13.6 | 152 |
I already knew that Adrian Gonzalez and Robinson Cano excelled hitting the ball the other way, so it makes sense that they also excel at hitting outside pitches. The Phillies are not so good at hitting the ball when pitched away. They are good at baserunning, however.
Up-In
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Casey McGehee | 5.1 | 84 |
| Michael Young | 5.0 | 85 |
| Marco Scutaro | 3.8 | 43 |
| Seth Smith | 3.8 | 14 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 3.1 | 81 |
| Hunter Pence | -7.1 | 77 |
| Matt Holliday | -7.7 | 85 |
| Clint Barmes | -8.0 | 75 |
| Jhonny Peralta | -8.6 | 85 |
| Michael Cuddyer | -10.3 | 123 |
Michael Young also likes the ball inside. He beat out Lee by six runs last year on pitches at least half a foot inside. Seth Smith had seven hits on the 14 pitches he swung at up and in, including four for extra bases.
Up-Middle
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Cuddyer | 10.7 | 186 |
| Raul Ibanez | 9.7 | 114 |
| Aaron Hill | 9.6 | 223 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 7.5 | 172 |
| Todd Helton | 7.4 | 168 |
| Orlando Cabrera | -10.3 | 204 |
| Jason Giambi | -11.3 | 109 |
| Mike Cameron | -11.6 | 122 |
| Jose Bautista | -11.9 | 136 |
| Mark Reynolds | -13.5 | 177 |
Michael Cuddyer was last at pitches up and in, but first at pitches up and over the plate. I find this very interesting. If you’re a pitcher, you can jam Cuddyer, but you better not miss.
Up-Away
| Name | Runs | Swings |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 5.5 | 82 |
| Matt Wieters | 4.7 | 42 |
| Chris Coghlan | 4.7 | 76 |
| Matt Kemp | 3.9 | 56 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 3.8 | 58 |
| Jimmy Rollins | -6.0 | 110 |
| Rafael Furcal | -6.1 | 93 |
| Jorge Cantu | -6.4 | 56 |
| Brian Roberts | -7.3 | 76 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | -8.0 | 73 |
It took you a whole article to find Albert Pujols at the top of a leaderboard. My analysis confirms Rich Lederer's preliminary hypothesis. Pujols continues to be good.
Here's a spreadsheet containing all hitters with at least ten pitches swung at in a zone. And why not? Pitchers too.