Baseball BeatJuly 19, 2003
Ken Griffey: Senior or Junior Status?
By Rich Lederer

News Item: Ken Griffey Jr. ruptured a tendon in his right ankle Thursday and had surgery to replace the tendon on Friday. Griffey will miss the rest of the season and is also expected to have surgery on his right shoulder in a few weeks.

Question: Does Griffey possess Hall of Fame credentials in the event that he were to retire and never play another game?

To answer that question, I have compiled the following lists to determine Griffey's career rankings among modern-day (1900-on) center fielders.

RATE STATS

ON BASE PERCENTAGE               OBP    
1    Ty Cobb                    .433   
2    Tris Speaker               .428   
3    Mickey Mantle              .421   
4    Roy Thomas                 .408   
5    Joe DiMaggio               .398   
6    Earle Combs                .397   
7    Richie Ashburn             .396   
8    Hack Wilson                .395   
9    Earl Averill               .395   
10   Bernie Williams            .392   
16   Ken Griffey Jr.            .379
OBP                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                    .093     .433     .340   
2    Mickey Mantle              .087     .421     .333   
3    Tris Speaker               .084     .428     .344   
4    Roy Thomas                 .082     .408     .326   
5    Richie Ashburn             .058     .396     .339   
6    Willie Mays                .054     .384     .330   
7    Bernie Williams            .051     .392     .341   
8    Brett Butler               .047     .377     .330   
9    Hack Wilson                .044     .395     .351   
10   Lenny Dykstra              .044     .375     .331   
14   Ken Griffey Jr.            .040     .379     .339
SLUGGING AVERAGE                 SLG    
1    Joe DiMaggio               .579   
2    Ken Griffey Jr.            .562   
3    Willie Mays                .557   
4    Mickey Mantle              .557   
5    Hack Wilson                .545   
6    Duke Snider                .540   
7    Earl Averill               .533   
8    Wally Berger               .522   
9    Ellis Burks                .514   
10   Ty Cobb                    .512
SLG                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Joe DiMaggio               .171     .579     .407   
2    Mickey Mantle              .165     .557     .392   
3    Willie Mays                .156     .557     .401   
4    Ty Cobb                    .148     .512     .364   
5    Ken Griffey Jr.            .143     .562     .419   
6    Tris Speaker               .131     .500     .370   
7    Hack Wilson                .129     .545     .415   
8    Duke Snider                .129     .540     .411   
9    Wally Berger               .114     .522     .407   
10   Earl Averill               .111     .533     .422
ON BASE PLUS SLUGGING            OPS    
1    Mickey Mantle              .977   
2    Joe DiMaggio               .977   
3    Ty Cobb                    .945   
4    Willie Mays                .941   
5    Ken Griffey Jr.            .940   
6    Hack Wilson                .940   
7    Tris Speaker               .928   
8    Earl Averill               .928   
9    Duke Snider                .919   
10   Bernie Williams            .890
OPS                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Mickey Mantle              .252     .977     .725   
2    Ty Cobb                    .242     .945     .704   
3    Tris Speaker               .215     .928     .714   
4    Joe DiMaggio               .213     .977     .764   
5    Willie Mays                .210     .941     .731   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            .182     .940     .758   
7    Hack Wilson                .174     .940     .766   
8    Duke Snider                .171     .919     .749   
9    Earl Averill               .145     .928     .782   
10   Larry Doby                 .132     .876     .744
ADJUSTED OPS                    OPS+
1    Mickey Mantle              172     
2    Ty Cobb                    167     
3    Tris Speaker               158    
4    Willie Mays                156
5    Joe DiMaggio               155     
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            144   
7    Hack Wilson                144     
8    Duke Snider                140     
9    Wally Berger               138     
10   Larry Doby                 136
TOTAL AVERAGE                     TA     
1    Mickey Mantle             1.091   
2    Ty Cobb                   1.057   
3    Joe DiMaggio              1.012   
4    Tris Speaker              1.012   
5    Hack Wilson               1.005   
6    Willie Mays                .982   
7    Ken Griffey Jr.            .980   
8    Earl Averill               .956   
9    Duke Snider                .931   
10   Larry Doby                 .893
TOTAL AVERAGE                   DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Mickey Mantle              .431    1.091     .661   
2    Ty Cobb                    .393    1.057     .664   
3    Tris Speaker               .338    1.012     .673   
4    Willie Mays                .319     .982     .663   
5    Joe DiMaggio               .299    1.012     .713   
6    Hack Wilson                .278    1.005     .727   
7    Ken Griffey Jr.            .273     .980     .708   
8    Duke Snider                .243     .931     .688   
9    Earl Averill               .211     .956     .746   
10   Larry Doby                 .209     .893     .684

COUNTING STATS

TIMES ON BASE                    TOB     
1    Ty Cobb                    5532   
2    Tris Speaker               4998   
3    Willie Mays                4790   
4    Mickey Mantle              4161
5    Richie Ashburn             3815
6    Max Carey                  3782
7    Brett Butler               3542
8    Vada Pinson                3385   
9    Al Oliver                  3360   
10   Doc Cramer                 3317   
15   Ken Griffey Jr.            3015
TOB                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                    1777     5532     3755   
2    Tris Speaker               1493     4998     3505   
3    Mickey Mantle              1366     4161     2795   
4    Willie Mays                1022     4790     3768   
5    Richie Ashburn              850     3815     2965
6    Roy Thomas                  695     2535     1840
7    Brett Butler                585     3542     2957
8    Joe DiMaggio                547     3050     2503   
9    Bernie Williams             527     2691     2164
10   Duke Snider                 519     3108     2589
11   Ken Griffey Jr.             512     3015     2503
TOTAL BASES                       TB     
1    Willie Mays                6066   
2    Ty Cobb                    5857   
3    Tris Speaker               5101   
4    Mickey Mantle              4511   
5    Vada Pinson                4264   
6    Al Oliver                  4083   
7    Joe DiMaggio               3948   
8    Ken Griffey Jr.            3883   
9    Duke Snider                3865   
10   Willie Davis               3778
TOTAL BASES                     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                    2201     5857     3656   
2    Willie Mays                1939     6066     4127   
3    Tris Speaker               1692     5101     3409   
4    Mickey Mantle              1576     4511     2935   
5    Joe DiMaggio               1399     3948     2549   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            1122     3883     2761   
7    Duke Snider                1030     3865     2835   
8    Earl Averill                848     3391     2543   
9    Ellis Burks                 798     3599     2801   
10   Al Oliver                   755     4083     3328
RUNS CREATED                      RC     
1    Ty Cobb                    2757   
2    Willie Mays                2355   
3    Tris Speaker               2353   
4    Mickey Mantle              2042   
5    Joe DiMaggio               1622   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            1487   
7    Duke Snider                1476   
8    Max Carey                  1435   
9    Earl Averill               1393   
10   Vada Pinson                1388
RUNS CREATED                    DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                    1381     2757     1376   
2    Tris Speaker               1069     2353     1284   
3    Mickey Mantle              1046     2042      996   
4    Willie Mays                 982     2355     1373   
5    Joe DiMaggio                661     1622      961   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.             538     1487      949   
7    Duke Snider                 500     1476      976   
8    Earl Averill                418     1393      975   
9    Hack Wilson                 355     1050      695   
10   Ellis Burks                 352     1305      953
RUNS CREATED/GAME               RC/G    
1    Mickey Mantle              9.35   
2    Ty Cobb                    9.25   
3    Joe DiMaggio               9.11   
4    Tris Speaker               8.59   
5    Earl Averill               8.15   
6    Hack Wilson                8.02   
7    Willie Mays                7.89   
8    Ken Griffey Jr.            7.80   
9    Duke Snider                7.45   
10   Bernie Williams            7.15
RUNS CREATED/GAME               DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Mickey Mantle              4.78     9.35     4.57   
2    Ty Cobb                    4.65     9.25     4.60   
3    Tris Speaker               3.90     8.59     4.69   
4    Joe DiMaggio               3.72     9.11     5.39   
5    Willie Mays                3.29     7.89     4.60   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            2.82     7.80     4.98   
7    Hack Wilson                2.70     8.02     5.32   
8    Duke Snider                2.52     7.45     4.93   
9    Earl Averill               2.44     8.15     5.71   
10   Larry Doby                 2.21     7.14     4.93

ADDITIONAL STATS

HOMERUNS                          HR     
1    Willie Mays                 660   
2    Mickey Mantle               536   
3    Ken Griffey Jr.             468   
4    Duke Snider                 407   
5    Dale Murphy                 398   
6    Joe DiMaggio                361   
7    Ellis Burks                 345   
8    Fred Lynn                   306   
9    Jimmy Wynn                  291   
10   Eric Davis                  282
HOMERUNS                        DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Willie Mays                 390      660      270   
2    Mickey Mantle               346      536      190   
3    Ken Griffey Jr.             272      468      196   
4    Joe DiMaggio                240      361      121   
5    Dale Murphy                 223      398      175   
6    Duke Snider                 218      407      189   
7    Cy Williams                 187      251       64   
8    Hack Wilson                 175      244       69   
9    Wally Berger                164      242       78   
10   Ellis Burks                 150      345      195
RUNS                               R     
1    Ty Cobb                    2245   
2    Willie Mays                2062   
3    Tris Speaker               1882   
4    Mickey Mantle              1677   
5    Max Carey                  1545   
6    Joe DiMaggio               1390   
7    Vada Pinson                1366   
8    Brett Butler               1359   
9    Doc Cramer                 1357   
10   Richie Ashburn             1322   
13   Ken Griffey Jr.            1237
RUNS                            DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                     928     2245     1317   
2    Willie Mays                 743     2062     1319   
3    Mickey Mantle               712     1677      965   
4    Tris Speaker                651     1882     1231   
5    Joe DiMaggio                477     1390      913   
6    Earle Combs                 373     1186      813   
7    Tommy Leach                 343     1280      937   
8    Duke Snider                 333     1259      926   
9    Kenny Lofton                318     1148      830   
10   Max Carey                   315     1545     1230   
T11  Ken Griffey Jr.             310     1237      927   
T11  Brett Butler                310     1359     1049
RUNS BATTED IN                   RBI    
1    Ty Cobb                    1933   
2    Willie Mays                1903   
T3   Tris Speaker               1537   
T3   Joe DiMaggio               1537   
5    Mickey Mantle              1509   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.            1358   
7    Duke Snider                1333   
8    Al Oliver                  1326   
9    Dale Murphy                1266   
10   Ellis Burks                1177
RBI                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
1    Ty Cobb                     810     1933     1123   
2    Joe DiMaggio                686     1537      851   
3    Willie Mays                 671     1903     1232   
4    Mickey Mantle               604     1509      905   
5    Tris Speaker                484     1537     1053   
6    Ken Griffey Jr.             481     1358      877   
7    Duke Snider                 465     1333      868   
8    Hack Wilson                 453     1063      610   
9    Dale Murphy                 348     1266      918   
10   Al Oliver                   317     1326     1009

* All statistics are through 2002. The career rate stats are based on a minimum of 5000 PA. Player positions are determined by career totals rather than by individual seasons.

Ken Griffey's Career Stats (through 2003):

YEAR        G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
CAREER	1914  7079 1271 2080  382  36 481 1384  940 1256 177  .294  .379  .562  .941

Griffey's Seasonal Averages (per 162 games played):

YEAR        G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
11.81	 162   599  108  176   32   3  41  117   80  106  15  .294  .379  .562  .941

Honors
MVP 1997
Gold Glove (10x): 1990-1999
All-Star (11x): 1990-2000
1992 All-Star Game MVP
1990s Player of the Decade
All Century Team

Post-Season
1995 ALDS, 1995 ALCS, 1997 ALDS
Griffey tied a post-season series record with five HR in the 1995 ALDS against the Yankees. Also hit .391 with nine runs and seven RBI.

Black Ink: Batting 26 (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting 153 (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting 49.3 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting 192.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

Sources: sabermetric baseball encyclopedia, baseball-reference.com, and espn.com

An evaluation of Griffey (or any player) would not be complete without reviewing fielding and baserunning. By most measures, Griffey was at least an average--if not a plus--fielder and baserunner. Like most ballplayers, Griffey's defensive and baserunning performance improved through his early years before deteriorating slightly with age. Junior's defense and baserunning were generally stronger during his Seattle years and were weaker during his Cincinnati years. As noted above, Griffey won 10 Gold Gloves, perhaps due to his penchant for making spectacular catches as well as the possibility that his reputation may have preceded his actual performance. His fielding percentage as a center fielder was .985 vs. the league average for CF of .987. His range factor was 2.55 vs. the league average of 2.43. Baseball Prospectus rates Griffey's career defensive value at 99, meaning he was one run below average per 100 games. Griffey's highest defensive rating was 108 in 1995 and his lowest was 91 in 2002. Griffey had excellent speed, particularly early in his career before injuries took their toll. He stole 177 bases and was caught 66 times for a success rate of 73%, which is five percentage points above the league average and one percentage point above his position average.

Miscellaneous Information

Born on the same day (November 21) and in the same town (Donora, PA) as Stan Musial. The most similar player appears to be Duke Snider. Griffey was the first pick in the June 1987 draft. Junior collected 398 HR before the age of 30 and was the youngest player to reach 400. Ninth unanimous MVP in A.L. history. Belted 40 or more HR in seven out of eight seasons from 1993-2000 (with the only miss in 1995, a year he hit 17 homers in only 72 games). Four-year run of 209 HR and 567 RBI (equal to 52 HR and 142 RBI per year), including back-to-back seasons of 56 in 1997 and 1998. Hit A.L.-high 40 roundtrippers in just 111 games during the strike-shortened 1994 season, on pace for a 162-game total of 58.

Conclusion: Based on statistical comparisons, I believe Ken Griffey, Jr. is the sixth best center fielder of all time and is clearly worthy of being enshrined in the Hall of Fame even if he were to retire now and never play another game. There is a huge gap between Griffey and The Big Five (in alphabetical order, Ty Cobb, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Tris Speaker), but he ranks higher than Snider (who I would rate #7) by almost every statistical measure and is unmistakably superior to the rest of the center fielders in baseball history.