With a graduation to the Major Leagues, prospects escape the realm of subjective opinion rankings. They then enter a world of objectivity, when rankings are based far more on numbers than eyes.

Today, I'd like to take a select few Major Leaguers back to prospect lists. My first article for this site, one year ago, was ranking the top 20 sophomores of 2005. Data from the previous year, and PECOTA projections for the next five made it easier than my January rankings, but still far from perfect. As good as the top choice of David Wright looks good now, but the inclusions of Edwin Jackson, Alexis Rios and Chin-Hui Tsao do not.

Twenty-nine players from my 2005 WTNY Top 100 (including honorable mention) - my real prospect list - were rookies last season. Far more other players, not on the list, were classified as first-year players. The point of today's piece is to gather together all these players and find the best twenty in terms of perceived career value. The list...

1. Felix Hernandez - SP - Seattle Mariners

Everyone familiar with King Felix has a mancrush on him. Everyone. But no one has been as outward with their feelings as Dave Cameron, and deservingly so, as Cameron brought Felix to our attention when he was pitching in the Northwest League. Within a guest column for this site, Cameron glowingly went through Hernandez' arsenal:

Let's start with his four-seam fastball. At 96-98 mph, his velocity alone makes it extaordinarily hard to hit. This isn't a Matt Anderson "Hit Me" fastball. Throwing it with movement, it draws stares more often than not...

If he bores of peppering the zone in the high-90s, he can easily switch to his two-seam fastball, the sinker that caused worms and gophers to leave the grounds of Safeco Field en masse. This pitch is nearly always thrown at the knees and, with late downward movement, it is a groundball machine...

As good as his two high-velocity options can be, neither is his best pitch. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find a better pitch in baseball than the Royal Curveball. Thrown as a classic 12-to-6 over-the-top curve and coming in at 82-86 miles per hour, Felix's curve is the kind of breaking ball that makes batters wobble...

And, just for fun, Felix also has a change-up that, on its own merits, is one of the best in the American League. A true straight change, he drops it in at around 84 mph, usually just below the knees of a batter who has already completed his swing by the time the ball actually gets to the plate.

Felix has had success at every stop, including his stint in the Majors last year. Rich points out to me that Felix was sixth in the league last year in K/100P, a fantastic number for a player of his age. Really the only downside Hernandez possesses is a lot of potential for injury, which would certainly validate the Doc Gooden comparisons. More likely than not, he exceeds them, and should go toe-to-toe with Johan Santana for Cy Young contention for the next ten years.

2. Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

The problems are fairly obvious with Weeks. First of all, it's likely that Weeks will never be a good second baseman, perhaps always providing negative value in the field. At the plate, Weeks also has serious contact problems, and PECOTA sees an average that, by 2010, will never top .280. His strikeout numbers should usually be over 100. But PECOTA also sees a 30-40% chance that, in each of the next five years, Weeks is a superstar. Rickie has great power for a player up the middle, and his speed on the basepaths should make fantasy owners consistently happy. When accepting his faults, we should look at Weeks as the NL second base starter in the All-Star Game for years to come.

3. Ryan Howard - 1B - Philadelphia Phillies

PECOTA is a pessimistic forecasting system, which should come as no secret to many of you. What is shocking, on the other hand, is Ryan Howard's ninety-percentile projection: .331/.429/.750 with 61 home runs. Wow. His top ten comparables include accomplished sluggers Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder and Willie Stargell, among others. Howard might be the best bet to have success in 2006 at the plate, but he also provides very little value in the field or on the bases, and his ceiling isn't much higher. The Phillies will be glad they traded Jim Thome, but I will say right now that when Howard's arbitration time runs out in Philadelphia, he should not be brought back. Now that is looking into the future, ladies and gents.

4. Brian McCann - C - Atlanta Braves

When Johnny Estrada went down with injury last year, the Braves were very bold to bring McCann up to the majors. Brian performed very admirably during that time, handling the pitching staff well and peforming well at the plate. In fact, he may remind some (old) Braves fans of Joe Torre, who at the age of 21, hit a very similar .282/.355/.395. In the next four years, Torre built towards his peak, culminating in an age 25 season with a .943 OPS. McCann has better power than he showed last year, and if your fantasy league hasn't drafted yet, take my advice: make McCann (at the very least) your #2 catcher.

5. Scott Kazmir - SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

There are two schools of thought in regard to Kazmir. The first side, the cynical one, thinks that Kazmir is a wild pitcher that will always be just that. His career can be good, but will not progress much further, as 70-80 walks per season prevents great success. Others think that control can be learned, and focus on numbers like Kazmir's 5.28 K/100P. Scott is a hot-and-cold pitcher that is very fun to watch, and his development is one thing that the new Tampa regime is banking on. If all they expect is a #2 starter, than there are far worse bets out there.

6. Zach Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates

Another weird PECOTA player. While the projection system likes the Bucs southpaw more than Kazmir for the next five years, it doesn't see a lot of upside: just a 5% breakout rate is given for the 2006 season. This seems about right, as Duke's solid start simply indicated that of a player with a low ceiling. He is a very smart pitcher who I was really impressed with after he carved through the Cubs, but his strikeout numbers will never be sensational. Look for this to always hold Duke back, who is just the player the Pirates covet for their ideal team. Good things are ahead in Zach's future, even despite an organization that lacks a great reputation.

7. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B - Cincinnati Reds

After using just two third baseman from 1996-2003 (Willie Greene, Aaron Boone), the Reds hoped Brandon Larson might take the job in 2004. When it became apparent that Larson was a bust, Edwin Encarnacion started to be hyped. For years, I thought he was undeserving of so much praise, a future solid player with limited upside. However, in each year, Encarnacion has improved, and he played very well in a Major League stint last season. While Andy Marte still is perceived to have more upside than Edwin, the gap has closed, and Encarnacion is on the cusp of providing the Reds with another long-term solution (and the best one of the group) at the hot corner.

8. Huston Street - RP - Oakland Athletics

We can sit here and penalize Street for being a closer, talking about how relievers simply don't stack up against players at other positions. Or we could sit here and say that, for a closer, Street's stuff doesn't exactly match up. We could say that he is a one-year wonder, a case of the fungibility of the reliever. But that would simply not give Street enough credit. A true competitor, Street has found a way to be successful in the most difficult baseball atmosphere in the world. His stuff is good enough, because his guts are unparalleled. He will go through some tough weeks, without a doubt, but Street is one fantastic player.

9. Jeff Francoeur - OF - Atlanta Braves

No one is more variable on the list than Francoeur. If I went by PECOTA, he wouldn't be this high, as the system doesn't see the Braves outfielder breaking the 4.0 WARP mark in any of the next five years. However, I'm also intrigued by his PECOTA comparables, which have Juan Gonzalez, Cal Ripken (?) and Sammy Sosa in the top five. In fact, there are even more All-Stars making up his top 20. Like Weeks, Francoeur has issues, and my guess is that he will be one of the Majors most hot-and-cold players in baseball for some time. But few people have a feel for the game than this kid, as evidenced by just how quick he became used to Major League pitching. His power still profiles to be prodigious, and when he's done, I think we will all have learned something about how to play right field.

10. Brandon McCarthy - SP - Chicago White Sox

McCarthy was simply a tale of two seasons. He struggled in his first trip to the Majors, in which I wrote, "Brandon will need to gain confidence in a third pitch, as his fastball doesn't seem to be fast enough, and his curveball has the tendency to hang early in the count." The club then sent him to the International League to work on his change, and when he returned with the pitch improved, the results were fantastic. Just eight earned runs in his final 42.2 innings for a sparkling 1.69 ERA, and oddly enough, a spot in the White Sox bullpen. However, as we talked about recently in our AL Central Preview, there is every expectation that McCarthy will get his starts this season, and by 2007, a full-time slot. Consistency in the change will determine how high his career can go.

11. J.J. Hardy - SS - Milwaukee Brewers

The offensive Daniel Cabrera, few players are gaining more pre-2006 breakout support than J.J. Hardy. One of those boosters is Analysts' own Rich Lederer, who wrote this long-term prognostication on the Brewers middle infielder:

Longer term, Hardy profiles a bit like Chris Speier. He has a similar body type with medium speed, a good knowledge of the strike zone, and above-average power for a SS. Speier had better range than Hardy showed in his rookie year but was eventually hampered by a bad back despite enjoying a 19-year career in the majors. For what it's worth, the former Giant was one of the best players in the league during his second season.

The cynical view of Hardy would be to say he is this year's Adam LaRoche, simply on the list because of a big second half. However, Rich has that angle covered, too:

There are four points of interest [in Hardy's bad first half].

1. Hardy walked more often than he struck out.

2. He was putting the ball in play at a pretty good clip.

3. His Batting Average on Balls In Play was a meager .211 (vs. a MLB norm of about .300). Give him a more normal BABIP and he would have hit .262 before the All-Star game rather than .187.

4. The number of doubles-to-home runs was unusually high.

I was never high on Hardy when ranking him as a prospect, going as far to compare him to Royce Clayton. I will gladly admit to being wrong, as Hardy is a fun player to watch that does everything right. Look for a solid 2006 to be the start of a wonderfully solid Major League career.

12. Curtis Granderson - OF - Detroit Tigers

Do the Tigers really appreciate what they have in Granderson? Are they really considering starting Nook Logan at centerfield this season? In 2004, Granderson broke out at one of the minors easiest stadiums to hit a home run in. His numbers were helped by an August that was disproportionate to the rest of his career. He was an anomaly, but this year, showed that his breakout was for real. Granderson might not be the next great Tiger, or even a consistent All-Star. But for a team like Detroit, that has been "rebuilding" for so long, he's the long-term answer at one position. PECOTA loves him, but I don't see enough power developing for a superstar to shine through.

13. Casey Kotchman - 1B - Los Angeles Angels

Talk about a player PECOTA doesn't like. Thanks to a few years littered with injuries, Major League ineffectiveness, and a lack of opportunity, Kotchman is not a player that is projected well. His top ten comparables are a sorry group, and his high for the next five years -- in terms of WARP -- is 2.6. However, it's a prediction system far from perfect, and in Kotchman's case, numbers don't tell the whole story. For years, Casey has drawn the same comparison: Mark Grace. His fielding has always been lauded, as have his contact skills. Some would say that Kotchman's power would eventually develop, and his offense at first would be way above-average. Others, not so much. At this point, I think Kotchman is -- for his career -- a 15-25 home run player. To be successful, he'll need an average upwards of .300. He can do it.

14. Jeremy Reed - OF - Seattle Mariners

If you think the White Sox defense is good now, try imagining a team with Chris Young in left, Aaron Rowand in center, and Jeremy Reed in right. Instead, Chicago was just too deep up the middle, and all three of these players will be in greener pastures in 2006. Reed will be the one of the group who plays in a drastic pitching park, so his play will be the hardest to judge. The one consensus coming from Seattle is that Reed is a great defender, which given their huge outfield is a big plus. But, he does play next to Ichiro, which must be taken into consideration. Offensively, he's probably got Mark Kotsay potential, which has become a compliment, if not a fantastic one. The star potential isn't there, but he can probably be everything that Granderson can, and like Curtis, is the right cog for the Mariners rebuild.

15. Ervin Santana - SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm not sure we really appreciate what Santana has done here. Sure, Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey all had good 2005 seasons, and were more responsible for the Angels performance than Santana's. However, does anyone really believe that without Ervin, the Angels would have made the playoffs? For an October run, every team needs a player that steps up at the right time and replaces someone injured. That is what Santana did, and in effect, made Washburn's high price tag expendable this winter. Santana was on and off with his game last year, but had flashes of the lightning stuff that gained him notoriety in the minors. He's got a lot more bust potential than the names on this list, but he also could be really successful atop the Angel rotation.

16. Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Both at Baseball Prospectus and BTF, Cano was given about a 10% chance to turn into Hall of Fame baseball player. This is because what he did last year was remarkable, stepping into baseball's largest stage and taking the spotlight off a position that has caused the Yanks so much grief. Cano is another player that I obviously underrated too much as a prospect, not taking his 100 RBI+ season into enough consideration. But, really, is Cano's ceiling much above his performance in 2005? Do we really see a player that even has the possibility to be better than Weeks? Not for me, at least, as I believe Cano will teeter-totter among being an average second baseman for as long as the Yanks let him.

17. Joe Blanton - SP - Oakland Athletics

I can say that, with certainty, Joe Blanton will be pitching in the Majors for a long time. He's just that type of player, a solid starter with good durability and good enough stuff to have lasting value to Major League organizations. However, he isn't the type of player that will cause other starters to skip outings to get to. Blanton has succeeded in going after hitters, taking an approach similar to that of Street's, above. He had nice results in 2005, and should continue to do so this year without really being a factor in fantasy baseball. He is a good player with a lot of WARP in his future, but when it's all said and done, it could be remarkable how anti-climatic his career was.

18. Matt Murton - LF - Chicago Cubs

As a Cub fan, this was a difficult ranking. I, in a way, wanted to give Murton something back after he had such a good 2005. This was a player that forced his way into Dusty Baker's offense, a trait we should all respect in a player. He came out strong and kept going, having a remarkable season in left field. However, he didn't show any power. Barely any trace of it. In fact, besides home run contests, Murton's career is full of seasons without power. This just isn't acceptable for a Major League corner outfielder. While Murton could survive on becoming a 40-50 doubles guy, even that would be a step up. It will be his power that determines whether this ranking was too low, or drastically too high.

19. Nick Swisher and Dan Johnson - OF/1B - Oakland Athletics

On a list that features Ryan Howard in the third spot, it's difficult to drop a few players' rankings thanks to lack of athleticism. In that regard, Howard takes the cake. However, Howard's power is enough to overcome that fault, which is something that neither of these A's can say. In fact, Swisher and Johnson don't have any traits that are fantastic, but enough tools needed for success. This is very similar to my comment on Blanton, and in fact, could be considered a bit on Oakland A's players in general. This team is filled with solid players, top to bottom, that will make them a competitive team on an annual basis. But a World Series team? I don't see it, as there aren't very many players that could have fantastic career years. This holds true for Swisher and Johnson, neither of whom will be taking a large step in 2006.

20. Andy Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos - RP - Kansas City Royals
These two names should not be surprising choices for long-time readers. As I have pointed out a few times, I predicted Burgos to breakout before the season. And that he did, going from the Midwest League to the Majors in admirable fashion, with a fantastic 6.05 K/100P peripheral. And as I have also pointed out, I did not think the Cubs decision to expose Sisco to the Rule 5 draft was a good decision. It wasn't, as Sisco started out strong on Opening Day and never looked back. PECOTA is not confident at all with its predictions of these two, as neither garners a similarity score over 15. However, I see the future of the Kansas City bullpen, which at this point, could be their one strength in the next few seasons.

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In college baseball, rankings are obsolete nearly the minute they are compiled. Since the season is so short, with pitchers only having a limited number of outings each season, scouting directors don't have long to evaluate players. As a result, every weekend, draft boards are changed to reflect the weekend's happenings.

With that being said, I was thrilled when Sports Illustrated approached me with the opportunity to write an article for their On Campus College Baseball Preview. My top 20 draft prospects article ran Friday, preceding yet another weekend that would go far in making me look dated. However, my heart and soul is poured into this article, as I researched, interviewed, and read in detail to prepare. My top 20:

1. Andrew Miller - LH SP - North Carolina
2. Max Scherzer - RH SP - Missouri
3. Ian Kennedy - RH SP - USC
4. Drew Stubbs - OF - Texas
5. Daniel Bard - RH SP - North Carolina
6. Matt LaPorta - 1B - Florida
7. Dallas Buck - RH SP - Oregon State
8. Wes Hodges - 3B - Georgia Tech
9. Evan Longoria - IF - Long Beach State
10. Joba Chamberlain - RH SP - Nebraska
11. Jared Hughes - RH SP - Long Beach State
12. Kyle McCulloch - RH SP - Texas
13. Brandon Morrow - RH SP - California
14. Blair Erickson - RH RP - UC Irvine
15. Mark Hamilton - 1B - Tulane
16. Brad Lincoln - P - Houston
17. Mark Melancon - RH RP - Arizona
18. Chad Tracy - C - Pepperdine
19. Brennan Boesch - OF - California
20. Matt Antonelli - 3B - Wake Forest

This final ranking was decided on weeks ago, and even since, my draft board has been changed. Of note, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain and Brandon Morrow are the largest climbers. Longoria has continued to show the power he displayed over the summer, making him one of the top two hitters in the country. Chamberlain has zoomed right past Dallas Buck, especially since Baseball America reported his fastball hit 96 mph against NC State. Finally, Morrow is continuing to strike out batters at a torrid pace, though his six walks in six innings this past weekend are a cause for concern.

I mentioned Buck as someone who has dropped, as even against Brigham Young on Thursday he has not turned the corner with a great outing. His 2005 was built on a great non-conference record, so Dallas really can't afford to start slow out of the gates. I have also been disappointed with Mark Hamilton, who has not shown the power out of the gate that I expected. It will come, and I still think my Ryan Klesko comp applies, but he has slipped a bit. And finally, in talks with Rich Lederer, I realized that Jared Hughes and Brad Lincoln should really swap places.

Andrew Miller has not shifted at all, instead, he has only helped his status as the 'player to beat' atop draft boards. Miller has shown much improved control this season, walking only two batters through his first two starts. It also should be mentioned that in his Sunday start yesterday, there was only one out that Miller recorded that was not a groundball or strikeout. Yes, you should be drooling.

In fact, North Carolina is a team worth talking about. My pick for the 2006 College World Series title has stormed out of the gates to an undefeated record, albeit to a fairly weak schedule. Yes, they started hot last year, coming out 9-0 to begin the year. However, during that 2005 spree, the offense was averaging just 6.4 runs per game. Flash forward to 2006, and UNC is 7-0, but has scored 84 runs for an average of 12 runs per game. While most of my focus is on juniors at this site, it should be noted that Josh Horton makes quite a strong case for being the first shortstop drafted in 2007.

Speaking of 2007 hitters -- as offensive players will obviously be back on the map by then -- there has been no bigger story this year than NC State third baseman Matt Mangini. While the sample size police are surely on their way to arrest me, it is safe to say the best hitter in the country thus far (through 50 AB) has been Mangini. In a lineup that already features insane firepower from the likes of Aaron Bates and Jon Still, Mangini is hitting an insane .680/.730/1.080 this season. Not the most athletic player in the nation, Mangini will go as high in the draft as his bat takes him. Right now, that is pretty damn high.

Another ACC team that impressed me this weekend was Wake Forest, where Mr. Irrelevant (number 20, above) Matt Antonelli plays third base. The Demon Deacons, in the past plagued by a lack of pitching, threw well enough to get upsets of Missouri and Florida en route to an undefeated weekend. Antonelli wasn't fantastic, but continues to impress me with his discipline-upside combination.

Getting away from the top twenty, another noteworthy team -- and a surprising one at that -- has been Hawaii. The Rainbows entered the weekend 9-2, winning series over San Diego State, UC Irvine and Loyola Maramount before hosting USC this past weekend. The Trojans stumbled in Honolulu, dropping the first two games of the series before saving themselves from the sweep on Sunday. Hawaii is led by (a bit of a sleeper) in Friday night starter Steven Wright, another solid contributor from the Cape Cod League. In four starts already, Wright has pitched 29.2 innings, giving up just 15 hits and five walks while striking out 27 batters. He bears watching.

While Wright didn't garner a lot of consideration for the top twenty, there are a lot of other players who did. As I generally do with rankings, below are my eleven honorable mentions (displayed alphabetically) for the top 2006 draft-eligible prospects:

Chris Coghlan - 3B - Mississippi - Saber-friendly third baseman with limited upside.
Colin Curtis - OF - Arizona State - Future leadoff hitter with every tool but power.
Jason Donald - SS - Arizona - Good power, bad contact skills, shortstop. Decent package.
Chris Errecart - 1B/OF - Cal - Started in Cape Cod League, continuing to show power.
David Huff - LHP - UCLA - I fell in love with Huff last summer. I know why.
Brian Jeroloman - C - Florida - Best pure college catcher in junior class.
Tim Lincecum - SP - Washington - Do numbers speak louder than scouts?
Chris Perez - RP - Miami - A step below other closers, but second round arm.
Shane Robinson - OF - FSU - '05 Golden Spikes finalist does everything well.
Josh Rodriguez - SS - Rice - Very good power, no patience up the middle.
Brett Sinkbeil - SP - Missouri State - Cape Cod League guy with good live arm.

Again, rankings are only as good as the date in which they are compiled. With each weekend as we inch closer to June, performances become more and more important. As was the case with Lance Broadway last year, a few dynamite starts in May can go a long way towards turning someone into a first round pick.

This spring I will try to update my personal draft board often, trying to reflect the times when breakthrough performances happen. Thanks go out to Sports Illustrated for making me stick out my neck for the first time.

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It's that time of the year again, folks. Time for us to dust off the ol' crystal ball and share our secrets of the upcoming baseball season with you. Our motto is that it's better to be early than late. Well, it's actually better to be right than early but anybody can pick 'em in October. I mean, why wait around when we've got the answers for you in February?

Like last year, we will discuss the divisions by starting in the Central, then moving to the West, and finishing with the East. In week number one, we break down the AL Central--home of the defending World Series champs, the Chicago White Sox.

Our Two on Two format consists of Rich and Bryan and two guests each week expert in that particular division. Today, we meet up with Aaron Gleeman and Chris aka The Cheat to discuss all things AL Central. Aaron writes about his hometown Minnesota Twins through Aaron Gleeman.com, while Chris covers the Chicago White Sox at South Side Sox.

Grab a Venti, pull up a chair, and enjoy.

Bryan: A year ago, we began our AL Central preview with a discussion about the division's weak reputation. A World Series championship and wild-card contender later, such criticism has disappeared. Do you guys think the AL Central has begun a climb up the rankings and, if so, how does it compare to the other divisions?

Aaron: I still think the AL East is usually a good bet to be the best division every year, but the AL Central is definitely in the conversation now. Given how horrible Kansas City is, the Central could have four teams seriously going for 80+ wins.

Cheat: The AL Central absolutely has climbed the rankings. They may have the best pitching of any division in baseball.

Rich: As much as I like the division, I like the league even more. The American League is much stronger than the National League. The team that finishes third in the AL Central could probably win the NL West and challenge for the senior circuit's wild-card berth.

Bryan: Yes, the White Sox, Indians, and Twins form the makings of a strong division.

Cheat: I think you need to include Detroit in the discussions also. They're no pushover.

Aaron: Yeah, I agree. I'm not sure Detroit has enough pitching, but their lineup could lead to 80-85 wins.

Cheat: You could even argue that because there are four solid teams, the Central may beat up on each other just enough to only get one team in the playoffs yet again.

Bryan: Frankly, I think the reasoning for this improvement are the front offices. Is there a better group -- besides KC -- of executives in baseball?

Aaron: It's an interesting mix. I think Terry Ryan and Kenny Williams each have their flaws, and I'm not sure Dave Dombrowski can really be considered good. Mark Shapiro is somewhat untested comparatively, but he's doing a nice job.

Cheat: I'm not sold on Dombrowski, but Williams has certainly improved. Ryan and Shapiro have proved that they can win with a small budget.

Rich: Ryan and Shapiro are well respected and deservingly so. But I've been impressed with Williams, too. Not because the Sox won the World Series so much, but in the fact that Kenny was bold enough to make changes this offseason after winning it all.

Aaron: The division is so dependent on money, in relation to the rest of the AL, it's hard to judge everything properly. I mean, Minnesota has done well on a small budget, but they're competing with KC, Cleveland, and Detroit, with somewhat small budgets. And Chicago did well on a medium-sized budget, but they are outspending everyone else in the division.

Bryan: What's interesting is how volatile a few of the ownerships seem to be with money. Both the ownership groups in Cleveland and Detroit are willing to spend money on winners, which puts their GMs in a weird situation: right in the gray area of the buyers/sellers market.

Aaron: Right. The advantage they have is that once a rebuilding effort is nearly complete, the checkbooks can open up. Whereas Minnesota never has that.

Cheat: The White Sox are in the process of making themselves into a large-market club, one that spends $100+M each year. And Detroit has vowed to spend money. I'll be interested to see how Minnesota continues to compete with Cleveland looking like they may be able to add payroll in the future, too.

Aaron: If a team in the Central consistently spends $100 million, I think they'll win it most years. That extra $25-30 mill is just tough to overcome long term.

Rich: I don't know about "most years," but, yes, the team that spends the most money should win it more often than any other club.

Bryan: It's tough to consistently have player development success stories like the Twins have had recently.

Cheat: The one thing the White Sox have done, and I know Bryan has something to say about this, is deplete their farm system of top-level talent on their way to a big budget. That could hurt down the line.

Aaron: Right, but if you suddenly add $25 million to the payroll, prospects suddenly aren't as important.

Bryan: It certainly creates the risk of getting old, but the White Sox don't seem to be there--unlike maybe the Mets--quite yet. They can stay with this team for maybe two to three years before a huge decline sets in.

Aaron: Yeah, aside from Jim Thome they don't have a ton of really old guys.

Cheat: Agreed. The key will be letting go of the right guys each trading deadline and offseason.

Bryan: Well, Cheat, one real question entering the season is if they are letting the right guy into the rotation. Brandon McCarthy will likely start the year in the bullpen, despite the fact that he was probably the #2 starter in the second half. Mistake?

Cheat: The one thing I'm worried about with McCarthy is how he'll react to throwing from the 'pen. I don't know what the stress of throwing every day will do to his long and lean frame. I would rather he threw every five-to-six days.

Rich: The one thing I'm worried about with McCarthy is the number of home runs he allowed last year (13 in 67 IP).

Aaron: I was surprised that they added Javier Vazquez and then also kept Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Vazquez doesn't seem like much of an upgrade, if any, over McCarthy.

Rich: It's a cliche, but you can never have too much pitching.

Bryan: Well, I guess it depends whether Ozzie can still have the Midas touch in regards to the pitching staff. There was no better manager at that trait in 2005 than Guillen.

Cheat: The Sox also seem to think that McCarthy will get anywhere between 10-20 starts. They seem abnormally worried about their pitchers' workload from the playoff run and the upcoming WBC.

Aaron: Well, the odds of making it through a whole year with five starters is pretty slim. So I bet he'll get more than a dozen starts.

Cheat: I think the Sox have done a good job of targeting workhorses who don't go on the DL. I think only Vazquez and Freddy Garcia have ever been on the DL, and both for very limited time.

Aaron: That's the strength, and then that makes the bullpen even stronger.

Cheat: Well, I'm not as confident about the bullpen.

Bryan: The bullpen lost a few arms last year, and again enters the year dependent on some volatile players, like Dustin Hermanson.

Aaron: I think Bobby Jenks will have some rough patches, but I like Jeff Bajenaru as a potential new guy.

Cheat: Cliff Politte and Hermanson are very unlikely to repeat their performances, and Neal Cotts and Jenks are still young guys who walk a lot of batters.

Aaron: Right, but Jenks, Politte, McCarthy, Hermanson, Cotts, and maybe Bajenaru is a strong group.

Cheat: The White Sox don't have as much faith in Bajenaru as you do, Aaron. He'll be lucky to be the 12th man in the pen.

Aaron: Really? He seems like he's earned a shot.

Bryan: Thinking Baj isn't as good as the horrendous group of LOOGYs they brought to camp is foolish. Although I agree the White Sox might be in that school of thought.

Cheat: I agree with that sentiment, but it appears that he'll be competing with Sean Tracey and Tim Redding for the 12th spot. He should earn that spot though.

Aaron: Also, on the pitching in general, it may look a little worse this year simply because the defense might not be as good.

Cheat: Paul Konerko had a great year (for him) defensively, and Brian Anderson replaces Aaron Rowand. But aside from that, they should be about equal there.

Bryan: You would have to think there would be regression to the mean in that regard. The difference between Rowand and Anderson might be a problem, too.

Aaron: Right, that's mostly what I'm thinking. And it'll be even bigger if Rob Mackowiak plays a lot out there. But they'll still be good defense, just maybe not insanely good like they were last year.

Bryan: With the Anderson-Rowand swap, and Thome replacing Carl Everett, the team seems to have been willing to sacrifice a bit of defense for offense. How much better is this group than the April 2005 offense?

Rich: Not much, if at all. Other than the likely improvement at DH, I wouldn't expect the Sox to get more production anywhere else.

Aaron: I think Thome will have a pretty big year, but I'm not sure their offense in center field will be any better.

Cheat: Brian Anderson is Eric Byrnes long-lost twin. They look alike, play alike, and even have the same humor in interviews.

Bryan: Is playing like Eric Byrnes a compliment anymore, or no?

Cheat: It's not an indictment. It's passable for a rookie, I suppose. One who's not being counted on to carry the team.

Rich: If Anderson is Byrnes, it had better be the 2004 version or else the Sox are in trouble.

Aaron: Also, everyone seems to be talking up Mackowiak as a really good player, but he's not a good hitter. If Chicago loses a key guy for a while to an injury, their depth is somewhat thin.

Bryan: Definitely, though Williams has never been slow to make a trade in that regard.

Cheat: Mackowiak is one of the streakiest hitters in the game. So is Joe Crede, however, so it may be a good fit.

Rich: Or a bad fit. I hope Guillen doesn't try to play the so-called "hot hand" until it turns cold because that is a heckuva lot harder to do in practice than in theory. You end up "shooting behind the ducks" and the end result is usually worse than if you just left the cold guy in and play his way out of any slump.

Bryan: The key to the offense, for me at least, seems to be Joe Crede. Is this guy going to continue the step he made after some work in September, or will he continue to be as inconsistent as we all have seen in the past?

Cheat: Yeah, I agree. I think the key is the whole left side of the infield. Uribe will bat in the #2 hole in spring training, to see if it's something he can handle. I'm expecting big things from both Crede and Juan Uribe.

Aaron: I think he's more or less proven that he's a pretty mediocre hitter. I don't know that a good few weeks at the right time changes that.

Cheat: Crede did change his swing late last year. If he carries that over, he will be a different hitter.

Aaron: I'm curious to see if Tadahito Iguchi improves in his second year, but beyond that any offensive gains will probably come from Thome. A bigger key will be Konerko maintaining his production.

Bryan: Well, as much as this offense may have improved, it's pretty much a given that they will fall short of the group in Cleveland. If the Indians can avoid an offensive slump in April, they could outslug this division by a lot.

Aaron: Actually, I wouldn't bet on Cleveland's offense being much better than last year's. Where is an improvement coming from, aside from young guys potentially developing a little more?

Cheat: I might take a Chi vs. Cle HR vs. HR bet, but I'll concede that they have a better offense overall.

Aaron: The Indians are weak at the corners and very strong up the middle, which is an odd sort of arrangement. By the end of the year I could see Ryan Garko starting over Ben Broussard at first base, Andy Marte starting over Aaron Boone at third base, and Casey Blake and/or Jason Michaels being on the bench.

Rich: While it may be odd, it certainly is a lot easier to replace players on the left side of the defensive spectrum than the right.

Aaron: Yeah, having such strength up the middle, especially with young building blocks, will make it a lot easier for Cleveland to improve via trade during the year. It's not too difficult to find a solid first baseman or left fielder at midseason, but it's almost impossible to get your hands on a good-hitting shortstop or catcher.

Cheat: I will be really interested to see what they do with Marte.

Bryan: I guess I'm not the believer in Cleveland that some are, however. Aaron hit it on the head. They are just too weak at about three key positions to have an elite offense, and there is no elite part of the team.

Cheat: I think Grady Sizemore can continue to improve. I love the way that kid plays.

Bryan: Sizemore is fantastic. In two or three years, I could see him being one of the two or three best players in the division. And what's surprising is that it might not even be bold to say that anymore.

Aaron: I like Sizemore too, but it'd be asking a lot for him to do much better than he did last season. Same with Jhonny Peralta. It's dangerous to just assume young guys will be better every year.

Cheat: Yeah, I'm not that high on Peralta. He was amazing last year, but I just don't see him matching that output again.

Rich: I don't think the Indians need to improve their hitting or pitching. They just need to distribute their runs a bit better. To wit, Cleveland was 22-36 in one-run games and 34-14 in games that ended with a margin of victory or defeat of five runs or more.

Cheat: Yeah, they have that AL Central Pythagorean Championship banner to raise, right?

Aaron: The White Sox had that one for a while, I think. A few years running.

Cheat: Those are hollow titles to hold. It sure does feel better with the real thing.

Bryan: Cleveland's pitching staff is questionable, especially the bullpen. I don't see a way in which Bob Wickman is the same pitcher as last year, and they lost key arms in David Riske, Bobby Howry and Arthur Rhodes.

Cheat: I did like what I saw of Fernando Cabrera at the end of last season.

Aaron: They still have Rafael Betancourt, who is underrated. And Guillermo Mota's health is probably a pretty big key. But yeah, I wouldn't bet on them giving up under 650 runs again, either, I guess.

Bryan: While we all might agree Kevin Millwood was overpaid this winter, we have to recognize they lost the AL leader in ERA. And as valuable as Jason Johnson and Paul Byrd might be on the dollar, they lost an ace.

Aaron: Yep. Although I like Jeremy Sowers as a midseason fill-in.

Cheat: As a White Sox fan, I'm upset that Byrd is in the division. They always seem befuddled by him. Johnson is another story, however. At least he didn't cost much, and may have some upside.

Aaron: I don't think Johnson will be very good, but I liked the Byrd signing.

Cheat: The only solid defense I've seen of the Johnson signing was his DIPS numbers stacked beside Garland's.

Bryan: As much as the White Sox and Indians did this winter, the Twins did very, very little. Rondell White and Tony Batista?

Aaron: Don't forget Luis Castillo. He's the big one. Or non-small one, I guess. They've had such horrible second basemen that Castillo represents a pretty huge improvement.

Cheat: Castillo was a great addition, especially for what they gave up.

Aaron: I liked that move a lot. White, I'm sort of lukewarm on, and I think the whole Batista thing is a disaster. They essentially promised him the third-base job, which later kept them from going after Corey Koskie at a discount price.

Bryan: Of the contenders in the majors, no one has a worse left side than the Twins. The lack of any attempt to improve this group is quite damning.

Cheat: Jason Bartlett looked like a young Cal Ripken when he played the White Sox last season. He must have been pretty bad when I wasn't watching, because I really liked what I saw.

Aaron: If they play any large part of the season with Batista at 3B and Juan Castro at SS, it's a pretty big mark against Terry Ryan's understanding of offense building. I like Bartlett, but he looked rough at times last year. But I think he's a good defender and can get on base.

Cheat: If only Jason Kubel could play infield, right?

Bryan: We talked about the Indians depending upon improvement from youngsters, which is also exactly what the Twins are doing. However, for as difficult as it will be for Peralta to improve on his numbers, Justin Morneau almost has to.

Rich: Justin needs to be More Yes this year than More No.

Aaron: Right. Morneau is a big key. But they also need comebacks from Shannon Stewart, and health from Torii Hunter and Kubel. The Twins have a ton of question marks throughout the lineup, so they could go either way.

Bryan: But what's the upside? Third in the division offensively?

Aaron: It'll never be a great offense, but they really only need it to be an average one.

Cheat: They probably have the fourth best offense, but even a passable offense can get by with their pitching.

Bryan: Pitching, pitching, pitching. Terry Ryan essentially put the pressure on the staff to be as good as the White Sox to succeed. But I think they could conceivably do it.

Aaron: Here's what bothered me. They are spending $4 mill on Kyle Lohse and giving Batista the third-base job. Why not spend $4 mill on a decent 3B and give Francisco Liriano Lohse's spot?

Rich: Free Francisco Liriano, huh?

Aaron: I might have to start one up, but I have some patience. If he's still at Triple-A in July I might have a new cause. I started complaining about them keeping Johan Santana in the bullpen after a few years.

Rich: Yes, we all remember your pleas, Aaron. You were right, of course, but maybe Ryan believes Johan benefited by not being rushed.

Aaron: There's a difference between not being rushed and what the Twins did. I'm not clamoring for every young pitcher to be given a rotation spot immediately. Santana was in the bullpen for the bulk of four seasons. I'm willing to wait three months for Liriano.

Bryan: The Twins seem hesitant to depend too much on young players, which is odd because it runs counter to the philosophy that won them division championships.

Cheat: There's definitely been some questionable decisions by the front office, but they still have the pitching that will keep them in the division until September.

Aaron: Right. I always say that the Twins are good at the big picture of team-building, like developing young talent, but then they are sub par at the little stuff, like utilizing it. Their track record of helping young hitters develop is also very questionable.

Bryan: Dave Dombrowski was brought to Detroit because he was supposedly good at "the big picture of team building." However, in his time with Detroit, we haven't seen that. Many point to this year as the season they begin to contend. Do you guys see it?

Aaron: Dombrowski confuses me, because he always seems to be halfway between two plans. But I do think they have a chance to be surprisingly decent this year. Their pitching still stinks though.

Cheat: They're a mirror image of the Twins. The offense will be good, but they have to hope for some improvement in the pitching staff.

Aaron: I don't see it unless Justin Verlander immediately becomes an ace. I mean, who are they counting on improvements from? Kenny Rogers? Mike Maroth? Nate Robertson?

Bryan: Well, it's that time of the year for the inevitable Jeremy Bonderman breakout talk. It's also the time of the year for me to believe it.

Cheat: If Bonderman was a stock, I'd be buying right about now.

Aaron: He's yet to post a league-average ERA in three seasons, but of course he's only 23. I really like Bonderman, Verlander, and Joel Zumaya long term, but I doubt they'll be ready this year.

Bryan: Yeah, it seems like Dombrowski needs to start planning for 2008. Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez won't be the guys to see good teams in Detroit.

Rich: I don't know what or even if Pudge was seeing last year. Did I mention that he struck out 93 times while drawing 11 walks? He had a .270 OBP in the second half. C'mon, the guy is D-O-N-E.

Bryan: I certainly wouldn't want an offense dependent upon Carlos Guillen, Pudge and Maggs. Talk about declines on the horizon?

Cheat: A full year of Maggs, Placido Polanco, and Curtis Granderson over Nook Logan, and they'll have a fine offense. Pudge was so much fun to watch last year when he got to two strikes. He swung at everything.

Bryan: My question is this: is Carlos Pena as bad as people think this year? Chris Shelton is certainly better, but Pena could give a good 300-400 ABs if he had the right platoon partner.

Aaron: I don't think Pena is bad at all. He's an average first baseman, all things considered. The expectations for Shelton might be a little high at this point.

Cheat: Pena would be a good fit for a team like the Royals. Shelton was a bit of a surprise to me last season. I wouldn't look for him to improve too much this season.

Bryan: I agree, and I'll throw Brandon Inge into that same fire. The two are solid players but have very little star power.

Aaron: Right. Detroit doesn't have any real stars, but I could see them being average or better at every position.

Bryan: Seems to me the Twins and Tigers will be battling for having the third and fourth offenses in the division, but the Twins strength in pitching puts them way ahead.

Cheat: I'd rate the Tigers offense ahead of the Twins, but your point still stands. The difference in pitching is too much to overcome.

Bryan: It seems funny to say that in the AL Central that a good offense and mediocre pitching staff doesn't have a ton of hope for third. That's new.

Aaron: Yeah. This Tigers team could have competed for the division title a couple years ago.

Bryan: One certainty has not changed in the AL Central: the Kansas City Royals will finish fifth. Again, we have to talk about them, so let me ask: is there value in a veteran movement like they've made?

Aaron: I don't really see much value. It always struck me that if you're going to stink like KC will and the fans are going to hate it anyway, why not bank some of that money for the future? You know, instead of spending it on guys who might help the team go from 65 to 70 wins.

Cheat: There might be some economic value in it. I mean if you can draw 2M fans because you might reach 70 wins, then I suppose it's worth it.

Rich: The Royals would need the Million-Man March to go through Kauffman Stadium to get their attendance that high.

Aaron: Adding someone like Reggie Sanders might be helpful in three or four years, but it does nothing now.

Bryan: And blocks Chip Ambres from showing that he can be a pretty decent player.

Aaron: Right. I think they rushed quite a few guys too quickly last year, and now they're going to block quite a few other guys in 2006. It makes no sense. Why is Justin Huber at Triple-A? And what does having Doug Mientkiewicz instead of him accomplish, exactly?

Bryan: Well, we all know how important the Royals defense is to their success this year. C'mon, Aaron.

Cheat: The Royals off-season is emblematic of a larger problem that's facing baseball. The small market teams don't have much incentive to win when they can make a hefty profit via revenue sharing. It seems like MLB clamped down and made them spend the money this year, but all that did was drive up the market for middling veteran talent.

Rich: It's pretty sad when a team goes out and signs Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, and thinks they are doing something to improve their pitching. I mean, these guys were found on the rack at Filene's Basement this winter.

Aaron: They have a nice bullpen, though. Sort of like having "a nice personality," but still.

Bryan: That's definitely the strength. Andy Sisco, Ambiorix Burgos, Leo Nunez even, these are the guys the Royals should be marketing rather than a bunch of meaningless vowels.

Rich: Well, with their rotation, the relievers might throw more innings than the starters this year.

Bryan: Zack Greinke, Andrew Miller, J.P. Howell, Denny Bautista. This is the future of the KC rotation.

Cheat: It doesn't look intimidating by any means. They need to be in full rebuilding mode, like the Marlins. Though at least the Marlins have a few top guys to build around.

Rich: I heard you, Bryan. Andrew Miller. Nice.

Aaron: They really need to see some big strides from young guys like Greinke, and then decide who to keep around when the next wave (Huber, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, etc.) arrive, but I don't have confidence in Baird making the right choices.

Cheat: If Greinke was a stock, I wouldn't be buying, but I'd probably miss the boat. They've got a few young guys with potential. I think the season should just be about finding out who can play and who can't.

Aaron: They could have four good hitters in a year or so, with David DeJesus being #4, but the pitching looks brutal.

Rich: Patience, my friends. So they've lost 100 or more games in three of the last four years and have had only one winning season since the strike in 1994. These things take tiiiiiiiiiiiiime.

Bryan: Not trading Mike Sweeney this winter was just such an odd choice. Fine, if the Angels won't trade Howie Kendrick, take Erick Aybar. They aren't in the position to hold out for blue chippers.

Cheat: Again that comes down to economics. Trading Sweeney would have been a terrible PR move by the Royals. They would have trouble drawing 10K on the weekends without Sweeney.

Aaron: Nah, I don't buy that for a second. How much worse can their PR get? A diehard fan like Rob Neyer has basically disowned the franchise.

Cheat: It's not because of Mike Sweeney. It's because Sweeney is the one good player who the common fan can identify. If they trade him, after a 56 win season, it's interpreted as giving up before the next season even starts.

Aaron: Right, but I don't think Royals fans are even optimistic enough to care about that.

Bryan: Alright guys, enough Royals before I get sick. Let's close this out. What is your projected order of the division in 2006?

Aaron: It's a tough division to predict. I'd say probably Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City, but I'd give the first three at least a 25% chance of each winning.

Cheat: Chicago: 92 wins. Cleveland: 91. Minnesota: 87. Detroit: 82. KC: 63.

Rich: I'm not sure the division is good enough to average 83 wins. That seems a bit much to me. No way the Tigers and Royals combine for 18 more victories.

Cheat: Like you, Rich, I think the AL is clearly superior to the NL once again. The AL Central plays the NL Central in interleague this year. They'd have to beat up on the NL Central the way they did the NL West to post those records, but I don't think it's impossible.

Bryan: I agree with the same order as Aaron and Cheat, but I say Chicago wins the division by five games, at least.

Cheat: I'd like to agree, Bryan, but the Sox fan in me has trouble being that optimistic.

Rich: Well, I hate to be the party pooper here, but I'm going with Cleveland, followed by Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, and Kansas City.

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"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops."

- A. Bartlett Giamatti, the former commissioner of Major League Baseball

Last weekend the four greatest words in the English language were uttered across our great land - "pitchers and catchers reported." And with those words those of us who know that the phrase "baseball trivia" is an oxymoron, have once again come to life.