Clemens Rocketing Up the All-Time Charts
Lee Sinins, in an Around The Majors report late last month, suggested that Roger Clemens has a chance to set the modern-day record for career Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA). The Rocket is 23 RSAA behind RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE, 1900-2004 1 Lefty Grove 668 2 Roger Clemens 645 3 Walter Johnson 643 4 Greg Maddux 553 5 Grover C Alexander 524 6 Randy Johnson 511 7 Pedro Martinez 477 8 Christy Mathewson 405 9 Tom Seaver 404 10 Carl Hubbell 355 Clemens is fourth all-time (including the 19th century), behind In any event, it just so happened that Lee also reported that Clemens had 645 RSAA in 640 games. That made me wonder how many pitchers had averaged at least one RSAA per game. Using the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, I sorted all the pitchers (including those from the 19th century) with 200 or more games to determine just who and how many qualified for this feat. TOP TEN ALL-TIME, RSAA/GAME Pitcher RSAA GAMES RSAA/G 1 Pedro Martinez 477 388 1.23 2 Kid Nichols 678 620 1.09 3 Lefty Grove 668 616 1.08 4 Randy Johnson 511 489 1.04 5 Roger Clemens 645 640 1.01 6 John Clarkson 508 531 0.96 7 Greg Maddux 553 608 0.91 8 Cy Young 813 906 0.90 9 Walter Johnson 643 802 0.80 10 Amos Rusie 370 462 0.80 The answer is five. As shown, Clemens ranks fifth -- behind Speaking of Sinins' ATM reports, Lee also reported last week when Carlos Zambrano signed with the Chicago Cubs that the big right-hander ranked 12th in RSAA through the age of 23 over the past half century. CAREER RSAA, AGE <= 23 RSAA 1 Bert Blyleven 137 2 Don Drysdale 122 3 Dwight Gooden 110 4 Frank Tanana 96 5 Bret Saberhagen 78 6 Gary Nolan 74 7 Herb Score 72 8 Dennis Eckersley 70 9 Dean Chance 68 10 Mark Buehrle 65 11 Dave Rozema 64 12 Carlos Zambrano 63 13 John Candelaria 61 14 Roger Clemens 59 15 Mark Prior 58 Damn, there's that Blyleven guy again. This list would suggest that young Bert was the best pitcher in the post-World War II era through the age of 23. And therein lies one of his problems when it comes to the Hall of Fame. I believe it is human nature for voters to discount a player's record from the early years of his career and place too large a premium on the tail end of one's career. (Fred McGriff will be hurt and Rafael Palmeiro will be helped by this phenomenon, in my opinion.) And while we're on the subject of ATM reports and Blyleven, how about Lee's latest RSAA table? When reporting Johan Santana had signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Minnesota Twins, Lee pointed out that the Cy Young Award winner ranked fourth on the Senators/Twins single season RSAA list. SENATORS/TWINS, SINGLE-SEASON RSAA LEADERS YEAR RSAA 1 Walter Johnson 1913 75 2 Walter Johnson 1912 74 3 Walter Johnson 1918 56 4 Johan Santana 2004 54 5 Bert Blyleven 1973 53 6 Walter Johnson 1919 52 T7 Walter Johnson 1910 49 T7 Walter Johnson 1911 49 T7 Walter Johnson 1915 49 10 Frank Viola 1988 45 I find it amazing that Johnson, as great as he was, only had three years in which he had more RSAA than Blyleven had in 1973 in what was and still remains one of the most underappreciated seasons ever. Bert, in fact, finished second in the A.L. in RSAA that year (one behind As I explained in Answering the Naysayers, Blyleven "might have been the best pitcher in all of baseball that year. He led the A.L. in K/BB (3.85), SHO (9), ERA+ (158), and -- for 'cybergeeks' like me -- neutral wins* (26); was 2nd in ERA (2.52), K (258), WHIP (1.12), and RSAA (53); 3rd in CG (25); 4th in IP (325); and 7th in W (20)." *a projection of the number of wins the pitcher would have been credited with if he was given average run support. Blyleven's 1973 season was essentially on par with Santana's 2004 campaign. However, the modern-day Twin was a unanimous Cy Young Award winner whereas Bert garnered one third-place vote out of 24 ballots. I apologize, folks. I didn't mean for this to be an article about Blyleven. But, gosh, it's just difficult writing about the best pitchers in the history of baseball without running across Blyleven's name more often than not. [Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.] |
Comments
Blyleven's 1973 season was a great season indeed, but it's not really comparable to Santana's 2004. It was closer to Halladay's 2003-significantly more work than other starters, superb control.
He did suffer from poor run support, and I imagine that he was particulary affected (in a way that Santana would probably not have been) by Carew's poor defence at second.
That Catfish Hunter received more votes than Bert Blyleven in the Cy Young voting is just one more black mark on the voters. It's by far not the only one.
Posted by: Mike Green at February 16, 2005 8:30 AM
Thanks for the interesting article. Just a comment on your Top 10 RSAA/Game. I respect what the old timers accomplished but -
In 1881, the mound was moved from 45' to 50 ' - approx. from today's little league distance to today's Pony league distance, through not exact. I think Pony might be 53'.
In 1893, it went from 50' to the current 60' 6", which is the distance at the high school, college, and pro levels.
In looking at their careers, Clarkson played from 1882-1894, so he played mostly at that 50' distance. Rusie played from 1889-1901, so the 1st third or so of his career was at the 50' distance. Kid Nichols played from 1890-1906 so just the first couple of years of his career were at the 50' distance.
So I would say we need to keep that perspective in mind.
Posted by: Lou Sosa at February 16, 2005 8:55 AM
It's a shame voters are only able to comprehend things written on paper and won't be exposed to your info about Bert.
Posted by: LargeBill at February 16, 2005 10:28 AM
You're right, Mike. Although Blyleven and Santana had comparable RSAA totals, Santana (182 ERA+) was a more effective pitcher per inning than Blyleven (158). Bert made up that qualitative differential by pitching significantly more innings (325) than Santana (228).
The extra 100 innings of pitching at a 2.52 ERA (in the context of a 3.98 league ERA) vs. 2.61 (in the context of a 4.73 league ERA) is worth quite a bit though and that is why their quantitative values are approximately the same.
***
Good point, Lou. Clarkson, Rusie, and Nichols pitched under (much) different conditions than those from 1900-on. However, in their defense, the RSAA stat takes that into consideration because it is a measurement of runs saved vs. the league average.
If one was comparing raw totals, then adjusting for the change in pitching distances from the 19th century to the post-19th century would definitely be in order.
I'll have more to say on the subject of context in another soon-to-be posted article.
***
Bill, I think more and more mainstream media writers are being exposed to the research and analysis online. I have received positive feedback from several voters, and I sense our work is far from going unnoticed.
Posted by: Rich at February 16, 2005 2:02 PM
1.31 ERA, 171.1 IP (24 GS), 94 H, 12 HR, 35 BB, 216 K
Those are Santana's numbers from June 9th onwards (including his two post-season starts).
Mind-boggling.
Rich, I was wondering how historically significant that stretch is? Say, what is the greatest ever streak of more than 20 starts in terms of ERA? Is it possible to answer that?
Posted by: John Hill at February 17, 2005 3:35 PM
John, I don't have access to a database that could answer the question you posed. I would imagine Santana's run last year was among the greatest outside the deadball era and 1968.
Posted by: Rich at February 17, 2005 9:54 PM
In a totally unrelated email, Brian Gunn has informed me that John Tudor went 20-1 with a 1.37 ERA and 10 shutouts after June 1st through the end of the 1985 season.
Posted by: Rich at February 19, 2005 4:57 PM
Im from Houston and I just learned that Johan Santana was in the Astros minor league system. It's a shame we lost him considering our sruggle to find our 5th starter. With spring training already here, I guess we will see.
Posted by: onTHEdiamond17 at February 22, 2005 9:51 PM
Dwight Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA in 1985. He had 8 shutouts, and allowed 198 hits in 276 innings. That was a pretty dominating season. I remember that season well, as I was in NY and the Mets were in a race with the Cardinals that ended with both teams winning 95-plus games. I remember Tudor being awesome, but I don't know if he went 20-1. Tudor finished the season 21-8, so does that mean he was 0-7 in June?
He had a 1.93 ERA, allowing 209 hits in 275 innings. He did finish the season with 10 shutouts.
As for the Cards, on June 1st, according to baseball-reference.com, they were just 24-22.
Posted by: John Perricone at February 22, 2005 10:36 PM
HELLO JUST WONDERING IF YOU COULD TELL ME WHO HAS HIT THE LONGEST HOMER AND ALSO WHO HIT THE FIRST ONE THANKS SHANNON , TENNESSEE
Posted by: shannon garrett at February 23, 2005 9:21 AM
The player who changed the game Curt Flood + two other pitchers Koufax & Ryan
Posted by: Steve Ogle at February 27, 2005 9:10 PM
Blyleven was on the mound for 2 world series game seven wins in both leagues. I thought post season efforts weighed heavily on world series votes? Also, can we fix the statistics to disregard his competitive nature? You see, Bert would rather you hit a homer off him than give you a walk.
Posted by: Josh at March 9, 2005 9:32 AM