Well people, I'll be gone for the next week, so today's post is my New Year's present to everyone. For your enjoyment I typed up every lineup the way it currently stands. Enjoy, and maybe I'll get all the rotations and bullpens done on vacation. Have a Happy New Year!

Atlanta Braves
C- Estrada
1B- LaRoche/Franco
2B- Giles
SS- Furcal
3B- DeRosa
LF- C. Jones
CF- A. Jones
RF- Drew

Florida Marlins
C- Castro
1B- Choi
2B- Castillo
SS- Gonzalez
3B- Lowell
LF- Conine
CF- Pierre
RF- Cabrera

Philadelphia Phillies
C- Lieberthal
1B- Thome
2B- Utley
SS- Rollins
3B- Bell/Polanco
LF- Burrell
CF- Byrd
RF- Abreu

Montreal Expos
C- Schneider
1B- Johnson
2B- Vidro
SS- Cabrera
3B- Batista
LF- Wilkerson
CF- Chavez/Sledge
RF- Everett

New York Mets
C- Piazza
1B- Phillips
2B- Reyes
SS- Matsui
3B- Wigginton
LF- Floyd
CF- Cameron
RF- Perez

Chicago Cubs
C- Barrett
1B- Lee
2B- Walker/Grudzi
SS- Gonzalez
3B- Ramirez
LF- Alou
CF- Patterson
RF- Sosa

Houston Astros
C- Ausmus
1B- Bagwell
2B- Kent
SS- Everett
3B- Ensberg
LF- Berkman
CF- Biggio
RF- Hidalgo

St. Louis Cardinals
C- Matheny
1B- Gall
2B- Hart
SS- Renteria
3B- Rolen
LF- Pujols
CF- Edmonds
RF- Sanders

Cincy Reds
C- LaRue
1B- Casey
2B- Jimenez
SS- Larkin
3B- Larson
LF- Dunn
CF- Griffey
RF- Kearns

Pittsburgh Pirates
C- Kendall
1B- Wilson
2B- Sanchez
SS- Wilson
3B- Stynes
LF- Bay
CF- Redman
RF- Davis

Milwaukee Brewers
C- Moeller
1B- Overbay
2B- Spivey/Ginter
SS- Counsell
3B- Helms
LF- Grieve
CF- Sanchez
RF- Jenkins

San Francisco Giants
C- Pierzynski
1B- Snow
2B- Durham
SS- Perez
3B- Alfonzo
LF- Bonds
CF- Grissom
RF- Tucker/Mohr

Arizona Diamondbacks
C- Hammock
1B- Sexson
2B- Kata
SS- Cintron
3B- Hillenbrand
LF- Gonzalez
CF- Finley
RF- Bautista

Los Angeles Dodgers
C- Lo Duca
1B- Ventura
2B- Cora
SS- Izturis
3B- Beltre
LF- Encarnacion
CF- Roberts
RF- Green

Colorado Rockies
C- Johnson
1B- Helton
2B- Miles
SS- Barmes
3B- Castilla
LF- Burnitz
CF- Wilson
RF- Walker

San Diego Padres
C- Hernandez
1B- Nevin
2B- Loretta
SS- Greene/Vazquez
3B- Burroughs
LF- Klesko
CF- Giles
RF- Nady

Oakland Athletics
C- Miller
1B- Hatteberg
2B- Ellis
SS- Crosby
3B- Chavez
LF- Kielty
CF- Kotsay
RF- Dye
DH- Durazo

Seattle Mariners
C- Wilson/Davis
1B- Olerud
2B- Boone
SS- Guillen
3B- Spezio
LF- Ibanez
CF- Winn
RF- Ichiro
DH- Martinez

Anaheim Angels
C- Molina
1B- Quinlan
2B- Kennedy
SS- Eckstein
3B- Glaus
LF- Anderson
CF- Erstad
RF- Guillen
DH- Salmon

Texas Rangers
C- Diaz
1B- Teixeira
2B- Young
SS- Rodriguez
3B- Blalock
LF- Mench
CF- Nix/Nivar
RF- Jordan
DH- Fullmer

Minnesota Twins
C- Mauer
1B- Mientkiewicz
2B- Rivas
SS- Guzman
3B- Koskie
LF- Stewart
CF- Hunter
RF- Jones
DH- LeCroy

Chicago White Sox
C- Olivo
1B- Konerko
2B- Harris
SS- Valentin
3B- Crede
LF- Lee
CF- Rowand
RF- Ordonez
DH- Thomas

Kansas City Royals
C- Santiago
1B- Sweeney
2B- Relaford/Graffanino
SS- Berroa
3B- Randa
LF- DeJesus
CF- Beltran
RF- Guiel
DH- Stairs/Harvey

Cleveland Indians
C- Martinez
1B- Hafner
2B- Belliard
SS- Vizquel
3B- Blake
LF- Escobar
CF- Bradley
RF- Gerut
DH- Lawton

Detroit Tigers
C- Inge
1B- Pena/Shelton
2B- Vina
SS- Santiago
3B- Munson
LF- White
CF- Sanchez
RF- Higginson/Monroe
DH- Young

New York Yankees
C- Posada
1B- Giambi
2B- Soriano
SS- Jeter
3B- Boone
LF- Matsui
CF- Lofton
RF- Sheffield
DH- Williams

Boston Red Sox
C- Varitek
1B- Millar
2B- Bellhorn/Reese
SS- Garciaparra
3B- Mueller
LF- Ramirez
CF- Damon
RF- Nixon
DH- Ortiz

Toronto Blue Jays
C- Myers/Cash
1B- Delgado
2B- Hudson
SS- Woodward
3B- Hinske
LF- Catalanotto
CF- Wells
RF- R. Johnson
DH- Phelps

Baltimore Orioles
C- Lopez
1B- Gibbons
2B- Hairston
SS- Tejada
3B- Mora
LF- Bigbie
CF- Matos
RF- Cust
DH- Cordova/Segui

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
C- Hall
1B- Martinez
2B- Lugo
SS- Sanchez
3B- Blum
LF- Crawford
CF- Baldelli
RF- Cruz
DH- Huff

And my earliest 2004 predictions for divisional champions: Yankees, Royals, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Padres

Breakout Stars: Brad Wilkerson and Jake Peavy

I'm out.

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The Hall of Fame Trials and Tribulations of Bert Blyleven

Dum-dum-dum-dum-dee-du-wah
Ooh-yeah-yeah-yeah-yah
Oh-woh-woh-woh-o oh-wa-wah
Only the lonely, only the lonely

--Roy Orbison and Joe Melson

In my most recent article, I pointed out that catchers and third basemen are underrepresented in the Hall of Fame. I specifically mentioned Ted Simmons, Wally Schang, and Joe Torre as among a group of catchers who deserve a second look. There are a few third basemen, most notably Ron Santo, who have been ignored and warrant inclusion. However, none of the players mentioned are on this year's ballot so a discussion of their merits can be saved for a later day.

In the meantime, I would like to review the candidacy of a Hall of Fame-worthy player who is on the ballot for the seventh time. With that in mind, ladies and gentlemen of the selection jury, I hereby introduce Exhibit One in The Case For Bert Blyleven.

CAREER STRIKEOUTS

1    Nolan Ryan                 5714   
2    Steve Carlton              4136   
3    Roger Clemens              4099   
4    Randy Johnson              3871   
5    Bert Blyleven              3701   
6    Tom Seaver                 3640   
7    Don Sutton                 3574   
8    Gaylord Perry              3534   
9    Walter Johnson             3509   
10   Phil Niekro                3342   
11   Ferguson Jenkins           3192   
12   Bob Gibson                 3117

Every pitcher with 3,000 or more strikeouts who is eligible is in the Hall of Fame except for one pitcher. His name? Well, for those of you who may be color blind, the lone exception is none other than Rik Aalbert Blyleven. As shown, the Holland-born righthander ranks fifth all time in strikeouts. Other than Mr. Blyleven, there are only two pitchers--Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson--on the above list who are not in the Hall, and both will surely be inducted on the first ballot. Bert Blyleven, Only The Lonely.

Maybe strikeouts are not all that important as a standalone measure, you say? Well, you may be right. The object of the game is to shut down the opposing team no matter how you get them out, correct? With that understanding, ladies and gentlemen, I hereby present Exhibit Two for your consideration.

CAREER SHUTOUTS

1    Walter Johnson              110   
2    Grover C Alexander           90   
3    Christy Mathewson            79   
4    Cy Young                     76   
5    Eddie Plank                  69   
6    Warren Spahn                 63   
T7   Tom Seaver                   61   
T7   Nolan Ryan                   61   
9    Bert Blyleven                60   
10   Don Sutton                   58   
11   Ed Walsh                     57   
T12  Three Finger Brown           56   
T12  Pud Galvin                   56   
T12  Bob Gibson                   56   
15   Steve Carlton                55   
T16  Jim Palmer                   53   
T16  Gaylord Perry                53   
18   Juan Marichal                52   
T19  Rube Waddell                 50   
T19  Vic Willis                   50

Bert Blyleven ranks ninth in career shutouts. Other than Mr. Blyleven, every pitcher with 50 or more shutouts has been enshrined in Cooperstown. Nineteen pitchers on the inside, one pitcher on the outside. Bert Blyleven, Only the Lonely.

Still not convinced, ehh? Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce into evidence Exhibit Three. Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) represent the number of runs that a pitcher saved his team versus what an average pitcher would have allowed, adjusted for ballpark effects.

ALL-TIME RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE

1    Cy Young                    813   
2    Kid Nichols                 678   
3    Lefty Grove                 668   
4    Walter Johnson              643   
5    Roger Clemens               613   
6    Greg Maddux                 540   
7    Grover C Alexander          524   
8    John Clarkson               508   
9    Randy Johnson               461   
10   Pedro Martinez              453   
11   Christy Mathewson           405   
12   Tom Seaver                  404   
13   Tim Keefe                   377   
14   Amos Rusie                  370   
15   Carl Hubbell                355   
16   Bob Gibson                  350   
17   Bert Blyleven               344   
18   Phil Niekro                 322   
19   Whitey Ford                 321   
20   Warren Spahn                319

Every pitcher in the top 20 who is eligible for the Hall is in with one exception. And who might that pitcher be? Once again, it's none other than the Only The Lonely man himself, Bert Blyleven.

What about ERA? Well, thank you for asking. Ladies and gentlemen, I take this opportunity to introduce Exhibit Four.

ERA VS. LEAGUE AVERAGE (MINIMUM 4,000 IP)

                                DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Roger Clemens              1.20     3.19     4.39   
2    Walter Johnson             1.07     2.17     3.24   
3    Kid Nichols                0.94     2.95     3.89   
4    Cy Young                   0.92     2.63     3.54   
5    Grover C Alexander         0.83     2.56     3.39   
6    Warren Spahn               0.81     3.08     3.89   
7    Tom Seaver                 0.79     2.86     3.66   
8    Christy Mathewson          0.78     2.13     2.91   
9    John Clarkson              0.73     2.81     3.54   
10   Tim Keefe                  0.71     2.62     3.34   
11   Ted Lyons                  0.68     3.67     4.34   
12   Red Faber                  0.64     3.15     3.79   
13   Old Hoss Radbourn          0.59     2.67     3.26   
14   Red Ruffing                0.56     3.80     4.36   
15   Gaylord Perry              0.53     3.11     3.63   
16   Eddie Plank                0.53     2.35     2.88   
17   Nolan Ryan                 0.53     3.19     3.72   
18   Robin Roberts              0.51     3.40     3.91   
19   Bert Blyleven              0.50     3.31     3.81   
20   Eppa Rixey                 0.50     3.15     3.64

Nineteen of the top 20 pitchers have had their day in upstate New York or, in the case of Clemens, have already made reservations. The omission this time? You got it. Bert Blyleven, Only The Lonely.

For those of you who still need more information, I would like to present Exhibit Five. Neutral Wins is a statistic that projects the number of victories the pitcher would have if he was given average run support, considering his total number of decisions.

NEUTRAL WINS

1    Cy Young                    533   
2    Walter Johnson              470   
3    Grover C Alexander          374   
4    Kid Nichols                 373   
5    Christy Mathewson           361   
6    Pud Galvin                  359   
7    Warren Spahn                353   
8    Tim Keefe                   346   
9    Phil Niekro                 337   
T10  Gaylord Perry               336   
T10  Nolan Ryan                  336   
12   Steve Carlton               327   
13   John Clarkson               323   
14   Bert Blyleven               313   
15   Tom Seaver                  312   
16   Eddie Plank                 311   
17   Don Sutton                  310   
18   Roger Clemens               306   
19   Old Hoss Radbourn           300   
20   Lefty Grove                 298

Please excuse Mr. Blyleven for feeling a little paranoid at this time but, as you can see, he is the only pitcher in the top 20 in Neutral Wins who is eligible for baseball's highest honor but has not yet been voted in. Only The Lonely.

Think the above stat is a little too theoretical? Well, members of the selection committee, let's take a look at Exhibit Six. Actual wins. Nice and simple, just the way you guys and gals like it.

CAREER WINS

1    Cy Young                    511   
2    Walter Johnson              417   
T3   Christy Mathewson           373   
T3   Grover C Alexander          373   
5    Warren Spahn                363   
6    Kid Nichols                 361   
7    Pud Galvin                  360   
8    Tim Keefe                   341   
9    Steve Carlton               329   
10   John Clarkson               328   
11   Eddie Plank                 326   
T12  Nolan Ryan                  324   
T12  Don Sutton                  324   
14   Phil Niekro                 318   
15   Gaylord Perry               314   
16   Tom Seaver                  311   
17   Roger Clemens               310   
T18  Mickey Welch                309   
T18  Old Hoss Radbourn           309   
T20  Early Wynn                  300   
T20  Lefty Grove                 300   
22   Greg Maddux                 289   
23   Tommy John                  288   
24   Bert Blyleven               287   
25   Robin Roberts               286   
T26  Ferguson Jenkins            284

Although the number of wins is not the end all for evaluating pitchers, I am proud to say that our man once again finds himself in the company of nothing but Hall of Famers with just one other exception. Furthermore, there are dozens of pitchers who have won fewer games, yet you have found reason to induct each and every one of them.

Who would some of those fortunate souls be? None other than famous oldtimers such as Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown (239), Bob Feller (266), Carl Hubbell (253), and Joe McGinnity (246); greats from the '50s and '60s like Jim Bunning (224), Don Drysdale (209), Whitey Ford (236), Bob Gibson (251), Sandy Koufax (165), Juan Marichal (243), and Robin Roberts (286); and more decorated contemporaries over the first half of Mr. Blyleven's tenure such as Catfish Hunter (224), Ferguson Jenkins (284), and Jim Palmer (268).

Speaking of Mr. Blyleven's peers, I thought it might be instructive to compare how he ranks in RSAA over the course of his career. I would like to offer Exhibit Seven for your review.

RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE, 1970-1992

1    Bert Blyleven               344   
2    Roger Clemens               329   
3    Tom Seaver                  321   
4    Jim Palmer                  289   
T5   Dave Stieb                  241   
T5   Phil Niekro                 241   
7    Steve Carlton               239   
8    Gaylord Perry               228   
9    Nolan Ryan                  215   
10   Dennis Eckersley            204

Not only is Mr. Blyleven number one but he is the only pitcher on this list who has come before you and not been so honored. I recognize that the time period chosen favors our man because it conveniently covers his entire career. Nonetheless, if you run the same screen ten times using the various career lengths for each of the above moundsmen, the pitcher ranked first in every sort is in the HOF or will be in the HOF (in the case of Clemens, who is #1 over his playing days as well as Dave Stieb's career).

Want a "cleaner" period like the decade of the 1970s instead? Ladies and gentlemen, I provide you with Exhibit Eight.

RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE, 1970-1979

1    Tom Seaver                  281   
2    Jim Palmer                  280   
3    Bert Blyleven               261   
4    Phil Niekro                 248   
5    Gaylord Perry               237   
6    Ferguson Jenkins            195   
7    Steve Carlton               176

The top seven are all in the HOF except for the fellow with the initials "BB", who ranks third. The two hurlers ahead of him--Tom Seaver and Palmer--are multiple Cy Young Award winners and first-ballot HOF inductees. Bert Blyleven. Only The Lonely (Know How I Feel).

Bert Blyleven also ranks in the top ten for the decade of the 1980s, and he is second for the ten-year period (1975-1984) overlapping these two decades--behind only Steve Carlton, who is also a multiple Cy Young Award winner and first-ballot HOF inductee.

In addition to the above qualifications, Mr. Blyleven meets or exceeds three of the four Hall of Fame measures established by Bill James, one of baseball's foremost analysts. Only 21 pitchers in the history of the game have met all four standards, including just nine who began their careers after World War II. I present Exhibit Nine for your consideration.

Black Ink: Pitching - 16 (128) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 239 (22) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 50.0 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 120.5 (65) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Furthermore, as displayed in Exhibit Ten, eight of the most similar pitchers according to Baseball-Reference.com (one of the most widely used and highly respected baseball statistical sources) are in the Hall of Fame.

SIMILAR PITCHERS

Don Sutton (914) *
Gaylord Perry (909) *
Ferguson Jenkins (890) *
Tommy John (889)
Robin Roberts (876) *
Tom Seaver (864) *
Jim Kaat (854)
Early Wynn (844) *
Phil Niekro (844) *
Steve Carlton (840) *

*Denotes Hall of Famer.

The two pitchers not in the HOF are most similar to Mr. Blyleven in terms of their number of wins, but neither ranks among the top 20 in any of the other Exhibits that I have presented before you. Seven of the remaining eight show up not only on the career wins table alongside my client but at least once more. As such, I would contend that the following seven pitchers (Hall of Famers all) are the most statistically comparable to Mr. Blyleven:

Steve Carlton
Ferguson Jenkins
Phil Niekro
Gaylord Perry
Robin Roberts
Tom Seaver
Don Sutton

Herewith is Exhibit Eleven in The Case For Bert Blyleven.

                IP    H     ER    BB    SO   HR   ERA    W    L    PCT
Blyleven       4970  4632  1830  1322  3701  430  3.31  287  250  .534
Group Average  5032  4577  1800  1379  3396  448  3.22  316  239  .569

As detailed, Bert Blyleven's stats are roughly in line with the average of these seven pitchers across the board with the possible exception of wins, losses, and winning percentage. However, as shown in Exhibit Twelve below, his rate stats for the three areas controlled by the pitcher are actually better than this exclusive group.

		BB/9	SO/9	HR/9
Blyleven	2.39	6.70	0.78
Group Average	2.47	6.07	0.80

How was it possible that Mr. Blyleven could have better rate stats yet have 22 fewer wins and five more losses than the group average? Well, ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that the difference in my client's won-loss record was nothing more than being a victim of poor support. For example, do you realize that his team scored just 18 runs in his 15 losses in 1971? In fact, I would argue that Mr. Blyleven is one of the "unluckiest" pitchers in the history of baseball.

To compare "apples to apples", I hereby offer Exhibit Thirteen, which reveals the won-loss records of Mr. Blyleven and the group average by equalizing the run support for my client and the same seven starters, all of whom are among the elite group of pitchers in the Hall of Fame.

		NW	NL	PCT
Blyleven	313	224	.583
Group Average	316	239	.569

Neutral Wins and Losses prove my point that the only differences in Bert Blyleven's actual won-loss totals and winning percentage are a function of run support (or lack thereof). Recall that Mr. Blyleven broke in with the Minnesota Twins after the franchise's hey day in the second half of the 1960s, then played for the Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, the Twins again, and the California Angels.

CLOSING ARGUMENT

Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to summarize Bert Blyleven's qualifications for the Hall of Fame.

1. Mr. Blyleven ranks fifth all time in career strikeouts. You have seen the virtues of electing the top dozen other than the man known as Only The Lonely.

2. Mr. Blyleven ranks ninth in shutouts. You have seen the virtues of inducting the top 20 other than our subject.

3. Mr. Blyleven ranks 24th in wins. You have seen the virtues of honoring every eligible pitcher ahead of him save one.

4. Looking at more advanced metrics, Bert Blyleven ranks 14th in Neutral Wins. You have voted in every pitcher in the top 20 other than Mr. Blyleven.

5. Mr. Blyleven also ranks 17th in Runs Saved Above Average. You have enshrined every pitcher in the top 20 other than him.

6. Among pitchers with 4,000 or more innings, Bert Blyleven ranks 19th in ERA vs. the league average. Once again, you have found a spot in Cooperstown for every pitcher in the top 20 other than Mr. Blyleven.

For some icing on the cake, may I point out that Bert Blyleven was named American League Rookie Pitcher of the Year in 1970 at the age of 19, threw a no-hitter in 1977, and was voted Comeback Player of the Year in 1989? I might also add that Mr. Blyleven pitched on two World Series Championship teams, compiling a 5-1 won-loss record and a 2.47 ERA in the postseason.

By the way, I would like to bring to your attention, ladies and gentlemen, the little-known fact that you haven't honored any pitchers born since 1947 (Nolan Ryan), yet you have felt compelled to induct eight hitters (George Brett, Gary Carter, Eddie Murray, Kirby Puckett, Mike Schmidt, Ozzie Smith, Dave Winfield, and Robin Yount) born since then. Furthermore, every pitcher that has been elected since Mr. Blyleven became eligible six years ago, as well as the two immediately preceding his candidacy, has won 300 or more games. In fact, Rollie Fingers in 1992 was the last pitcher that was voted into the Hall of Fame without 300 wins and he, of course, was a reliever.

Based on the above, one can't help but think that winning 300 games has become the de facto standard for pitchers. As a point of clarification, had you held to that magical mark all along, there would only be 20 pitchers currently in the Hall of Fame with another one on his way (Clemens) and perhaps a second one on the horizon (Greg Maddux). A total of 22 starting pitchers would be comparable to only four or five position players. The fewest number of HOFers at any one position is 11 (3B). As such, holding starting pitchers to a minimum of 300 victories is overly strict and unfair. Focusing exclusively on wins is also a mistake as this stat is as much dependent on the pitcher's team as it is on the pitcher himself.

Ladies and gentlemen of the selection committee, I believe the facts in The Case For Bert Blyleven are indisputable. The evidence presented clearly indicates that Mr. Blyleven has all the qualifications necessary for you to finally reward him with his own plaque in Cooperstown.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sources: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and Baseball-Reference.com

[Reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

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Not much is doing in baseball as GMs and agents tidy their stockings, but the fun never stops for us bloggers. In fact, a personal favorite blogger, Rich Lederer, wrote a whole post yesterday proving an inaccuracy in a statement I made in yesterday's article. I wrote that Lopez is "far and away the 3rd best catcher in the last 20 years, and probably top 20 all-time." He proves that Lopez is not the 3rd best at all, and actually argues for 5th.

First, Rich points out what I didn't, that the top two are Mike Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez, then argues on the behalf of Jorge Posada and Jason Kendall. He uses the stat RCAP, or Runs Created Above Position, in showing that Javy stands 9th since 1984, and is 32nd on the all-time list. I used slugging percentage against league average for catchers to see that Lopez was ninth all-time, which led me to my drastic statement. I will concede the fact that Lopez might not be top twenty, and I'll even say that Jorge Posada is better than Loez. But Jason Kendall?

Kendall Career: .304/.385/.422 64HR 526RBI 620R in 4032AB
Lopez Career: .287/.337/.502 214HR 694RBI 508R in 4002AB

In basically the same amount of at-bats, Lopez has hit 150 more home runs than Kendall, and brought in 168 more runners. His lead in slugging makes up for the gap in OBP, although some systems (Aaron Gleeman's GPA) would refute that point. Anyhow, I believe Kendall's recent dip in productivity gives Lopez the edge here. While I made an indefensible statement glorifying Lopez, I refuse to believe that Jason Kendall is a better catcher.

And while I wrote about the tough opponents in the AL East yesterday, reader John Geer gave me a list of some career splits for Javy and his new enemies:

Vs. Schilling: .300/.333/.425 1BB/10K in 40AB
Vs. Pedro: .318/.375/.455 in 22AB
Vs. Brown: .160/.160/.320 0BB/7K in 25AB
Vs. Vazquez: .233/.294/.267 3BB/12K in 30AB
Vs. Lieber: .227/.227/.409 0BB/6K in 22AB

So, in 139 at-bats against American League pitching, Lopez is hitting .252/.283/.374, and that doesn't even include Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay, Jose Contreras, Derek Lowe, etc. Needless to say I'm not bullish on Javy in 2004, and now Rich has steered me into conceding Javy is the second best catcher in his division.

Moving in another direction, the Alex Rodriguez deal reached its deadline last night, and the Majors' best player will not be moving to the Northeast. I've written sparingly on this trade due to my own skepticism, and now Yankees fans can rejoice. The backlash we'll hear about from the Boston clubhouse should be harsh, and those who once yearned for Terry Francona's position are likely content.

Boston is still far and away the second best team in their division, and barring any freak breakouts, should win the Wild Card in 2004. The main competition will come from the loser of the A's v. Angels war, and I don't think either offense can match the Sox firepower. I'm very disappointed with the Players' Union now that this trade has been pronounced dead, and a friend pointed out to me that this more than violates the "free markets for free men" philosophy that free agency was argued for. Rodriguez will stay in Texas and remain an MVP candidate, but we'll likely hear trade rumors in every winter until his contract ceases. Tom Hicks doesn't show the enthusiasm for winning he once did, and only Kerry Wood will be able to transform this franchise into a .500 club. Unfortunately for A-Rod, that's a battle that will be fought in a year, while Alex will be spending another year in purgatory.

Wood most likely will never leave Chicago though, as Jim Hendry is currently negotiating a long-term contract. The Cubs' GM did have time to make another move yesterday, signing the best second basemen on the free agent market left, none other than postseason hero Todd Walker. Todd turned down better offers from different teams for the chance of winning, and signed a one-year, $1.75M deal. Here's a look at Walker's meaningful splits from 2003:

Overall: .283/.333/.428
Vs. RH: .301/.352/.448
Road: .243/.285/.355
2nd half: .271/.324/.434

Walker played inspired baseball in Fenway Park, but shouldn't have a hard time adjusting to the dimensions at Wrigley Field. His role with the Cubs isn't set in stone, although I would imagine something like Walker plays second against right-handers, and Alex Gonzalez will play shortstop against southpaws. Mark Grudzilanek will then shift through the middle infield positions accordingly. Walker will also give Derrek Lee the occasional day off as well.

Jim Hendry is doing a fantastic job giving Dusty Baker the team that Baker will thrive with, not giving a role to a young hitter. The Cubs may not have the money to sign Pudge Rodriguez anymore, possibly sending him to Los Angeles.

Finally, a few more transactions that deserve at least a moments time...

Phillies sign Shawn Wooten- Wooten will actually fill the Tyler Houston role with Philadelphia, hopefully without the drama with Larry Bowa. Wooten will probably let Thome have the day off against some southpaws, keep Todd Pratt to a pinch-hitting role, and might even fill in at third if necessary. His hitting has declined in each of his last three seasons, but his bat is one that easily deserves a bench role.

Diamondbacks sign Steve Sparks and Shane Reynolds- Not exactly the replacements I would have guessed for Curt Schilling and Miguel Batista, but Garigiola is trying, right? This Arizona team will not be very good next season, although their offense will be the best it's been in years. Both these pitchers are terrible, but Sparks is the type that might have a five game run allowing only 3 runs or something.

Pirates sign Chris Stynes- Stynes isn't a great hitter, although he does have the potential to put up Mark Loretta-type numbers and make Dave Littlefield look smart. The Pirate roster is beginning to take shape, although the team is still in need of one more outfielder.

Braves sign Antonio Alfonseca and Armando Almanza- Yikes! The Braves bullpen is going to be hideous after John Smoltz next season, what with Jaret Wright, Alfonseca, Almanza, Will Cunnane, and Jung Bong. Who would have guessed that Leo Mazzone would be missing Roberto Hernandez by the All-Star Break?

Brewers sign Ben Grieve- Milwaukee will have a very interesting lineup next year, and the Grieve move set it in stone. Barring any earth-shattering move, this will be the Brewers lineup on Opening Day...

1) Scott Podsednik- CF
2) Junior Spivey- 2B
3) Geoff Jenkins- RF
4) Ben Grieve- LF
5) Wes Helms- 3B
6) Lyle Overbay- 1B
7) Chad Moeller- C
8) Craig Counsell- SS

The bench will include Gary Bennett, Keith Ginter, Bill Hall, and Brady Clark. And yes, the Brewers will field the worst team in the National League next season.

And with that, I leave you. I won't be posting on Christmas, although I am hoping to have a weekend post on Friday. My readership has grown in the past month, and I want to thank all of you, and wish you all a very Merry Christmas. God Bless all of you.

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Not only do I like to research and write articles about baseball, but I also enjoy reading a number of other baseball blogs on a regular basis. One of the bloggers that has differentiated himself from the masses is Bryan Smith, the proprietor of Wait 'Til Next Year, a site focused on the future of baseball, today.

In Bryan's most recent post, he takes an interesting look at Javier Lopez' gaudy numbers in 2003 and forecasts how he will fare for the Baltimore Orioles in 2004. Bryan points out rather astutely that Lopez will face the triple challenge of hitting in a more difficult home ballpark, playing in a division loaded with baseball's best pitchers, and facing an age that has not been all that kind to catchers in the past.

I would beg to differ with Bryan on two matters though. He states Lopez has been "far and away the 3rd best catcher in the last 20 years, and probably top 20 all-time". I would rank Lopez as no better than the fifth most productive catcher during the past two decades, and I would not place him in the top 20 all time--at least not as this point in his career.

Although Bryan didn't actually list his top two catchers, I believe it is safe to say that he rates Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez numbero uno and dos. I don't think he would find much debate there. However, I contend that there are two other active catchers who deserve to rate higher than Lopez and a few more retired backstops who I could argue on behalf of, too.

Piazza and Rodriguez clearly stand out as the two best catchers over the past 20 years or since the Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, and Ted Simmons era of the late 1960s through the early-to-mid 1980s.

Piazza is unquestionably the best hitting catcher not only of this era but all time. He ranks among the top ten across the board in career totals and in the top two in every important rate-based stat. Piazza also sits atop the leader boards for catchers when it comes to BA, SLG, OPS, and Total Average vs. the league average. I believe Piazza's superior production at the plate more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies. In fact, the latter have been so well chronicled over the years that his overall value has been unfairly tainted in my opinion.

Rodriguez shows up on many of these top ten lists, plus he is one of the best defensive catchers of all time (as attested by several fielding metrics as well as his 10 Gold Gloves).

Beyond Piazza and Rodriguez, there may not be any more Hall of Famers in our midst. However, there have been two catchers--both of whom are still in their primes--who have produced at a higher level than Lopez over the course of their careers.

Although Lopez (.502) has a higher career slugging average than Jorge Posada (.474) and Jason Kendall (.422), he has a much lower on base percentage (.337) than both (.375 and .385, respectively). Lopez simply makes too many outs compared to Piazza, Posada, and Kendall, and he doesn't rank anywhere near I-Rod when it comes to defense.

These on base and slugging averages are important as they relate to creating runs, which is what it is all about, right? The following table probably summarizes it best.

RUNS CREATED ABOVE POSITION, 1984-2003

1    Mike Piazza                 528   
2    Ivan Rodriguez              244   
3    Jorge Posada                181   
4    Jason Kendall               178   
5    Mickey Tettleton            177   
6    Chris Hoiles                167   
7    Darren Daulton              159   
8    Mike Stanley                137   
9    Javier Lopez                127   
10   Gary Carter                 108

As shown, Piazza has created more than twice the number of runs as Rodriguez. I-Rod, in turn, has generated one third more runs than Posada and Kendall and nearly twice as many as Lopez. Posada's advantage over Lopez is eye-opening given that he has played in nearly 200 fewer games with over 1,000 fewer at bats.

Does this all mean that Baltimore made a mistake? Well, not really. The Orioles signed Lopez to a three-year deal for $22.5 million, or $7.5 million per year. How does that compare to the other active catchers on the above list?

CATCHER SALARIES

Piazza		$15.0m
Rodriguez		$10.0m
Posada		$ 8.0m
Kendall		$ 8.7m
Lopez		$ 7.5m

Lopez' contract was about in line with what one would expect given his production. Mike Lieberthal is the next highest paid catcher in baseball at $7.25 million. Slotting Lopez in between Posada/Kendall and Lieberthal seems right on the money.

Will Lopez be worthy of his contract? Now that is a totally separate question. As Bryan details, the going is gonna get a lot tougher for Javy in 2004 than it was in 2003. I hope Oriole fans are prepared.

THE REST IS HISTORY

As far as all time goes, let's not get ahead of ourselves here by annointing Lopez as one of the 20 best catchers ever. Using Runs Created Above Position once again as our metric of choice, let's see just where Javy ranks among catchers:

1    Mike Piazza                 528   
2    Bill Dickey                 473   
3    Yogi Berra                  430   
4    Mickey Cochrane             425   
5    Gabby Hartnett              364   
6    Carlton Fisk                360   
7    Johnny Bench                347   
8    Ted Simmons                 321   
9    Gary Carter                 251   
10   Wally Schang                249   
11   Ivan Rodriguez              244   
12   Ernie Lombardi              241   
13   Joe Torre                   222   
14   Roger Bresnahan             214   
15   Roy Campanella              206   
16   Smoky Burgess               194   
17   Darrell Porter              193   
18   Jorge Posada                181   
19   Jason Kendall               178   
T20  Gene Tenace                 177   
T20  Mickey Tettleton            177   

32   Javier Lopez                127

Half of Javy's RCAP were generated in 2003, an indication of a high peak value but also a more mediocre career otherwise. His only other double-digit years were from 1997-1999 when he averaged 18 per season. If Lopez can string together three similar campaigns for the Orioles, then--and only then--might one be able to make a case for him being included in a discussion about the top 20 catchers of all time.

Excluding Piazza and Rodriguez, both of whom will surely be enshrined in Cooperstown upon retirement, it is interesting to note that all but three of the top 15 catchers have a plaque in the Hall of Fame. Catchers are the second most underrepresented position in the HOF (behind third basemen only), an oversight that needs to be corrected by adding a few deserving candidates. Ted Simmons may have hurt his standing among voters by prolonging his career as a designated hitter and first baseman, but his numbers as a catcher appear much more worthy than the one-year and out look he received from voters. Wally Schang, a switch-hitting catcher from 1913-1931, played on seven pennant-winning and five World Series championship teams, yet never received more than 11 votes for the HOF. Joe Torre's totals above only tell part of the story as he created an additional 92 runs above the league average at his position as a first baseman and third baseman. His overall total of 314 is good for 87th on the all-time list of modern-day players.

Richard Lederer
Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT
www.baseballbeat.blogspot.com

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In the last ten years, one big name free agent has come to the Baltimore Orioles. Albert Belle. Unfortunately for Peter Angelos and Orioles' fans, that contract didn't go so well; Belle has made more money from Angelos since his retirement than he made in uniform. The Baltimore front office saw 2003 as their chance to try again, and have been quick on the attack thus far.

Last week, Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan inked 2002 AL MVP Miguel Tejada to a six-year contract. Given Tejada's age, defensive skills, and fantastic road numbers last year, it's hard to foresee Orioles' brass regretting that move. But yesterday the team went out on the limb more, risking $23M on a 33-year-old catcher. Laughable, right? Well, not exactly. See, this catcher set the record last year for home runs in a season at the catching position. Yes, at age 32, Javy Lopez gave his career a complete turnaround, throwing sabermatricians everywhere for a surprise.

During the course of his career, Javy Lopez has hit .287/.337/.502, giving the catcher an impressive 114 career OPS+. Compared to his league, Lopez ranks 11th of all catchers in slugging percentage. Lopez is far and away the 3rd best catcher in the last 20 years, and probably top 20 all-time. But given his age, new team, and new style of hitting, what can we expect next season?

First, let's take a look at the gaudy, insane splits Lopez had last season:

Overall: .328/.378/.687
Home: .376/.418/.834
Road: .290/.345/.567
Pre-ASB: .307/.352/.636
Post-ASB: .357/.411/.755

Lopez showed a huge preference to Turner Field, which played out to favor hitters slightly last season. In contrast, Camden Yards was a pitcher's park last year, very similar to National League fields Miller Park and Shea Stadium. Interestingly enough, Lopez hit only two extra-base hits in those stadiums a year ago, although 27 at-bats is a very small sample size. Turner Field will not see Javy at all in 2004, so expect him to be much more like the road version of himself next season.

To put Javy's 2003 into perspective, the slugger hit more home runs (by 6), and had a better slugging percentage (by .101) than any other catcher over 31 all-time. After tossing out Mike Piazza, these are the numbers for most home runs by a catcher after 31 years of age:

1. Lopez ('03)- 43
2. Carlton Fisk ('85)- 37
3. Terry Steinbach ('96)- 35
3. Walker Cooper ('47)- 35
5. Roy Campanella ('55)- 32

And those, besides Piazza's 2001 and 2002, are the only times a catcher after 31 has hit thirty home runs. Now here is the list using slugging percentage:

1. Lopez ('03)- .687
2. Walker Cooper ('47)- .586
3. Roy Campanella ('55)- .583
4. Mike Piazza ('01)- .573

Only four times in the history of Major League Baseball has a catcher above thirty-one years of age has slugged better than .550, and Lopez is the only one to slug .600. Here is a look at the five seasons mentioned above not including Piazza, whom I deem as a bad comp to any catcher...

Fisk '85: .238/.320/.488 115OPS+
Steinbach '96: .272/.342/.529 120OPS+
Cooper '47: .305/.339/.586 141OPS+
Campanella '55: .318/.395/.583 153OPS+

Lopez '03: .328/.378/.687 174OPS+

While Javy blows everyone out of the waters with his 2003, it's interestring that Campanella and Cooper came up as the two closest examples. Walker Cooper began his Major League career with 19AB in 1940, although he didn't reach 400AB with the St. Louis Browns until the 1942 season, when he was twenty-seven. Cooper was oft-injured during his career, but did have 1284AB during the 1942-1944 seasons, compiling an impressive .305/.341/.466 hitting line. He only had 298AB the next two seasons, and in 1947 exploded with 35 home runs, nearly 3 times his previous high of 13.

Campanella was similar to Cooper, not reaching 400AB until he was 27 years of age. In that 1949 season, Campanella hit .287/.385/.498 for the Brooklyn Dodgers, and then improved his slugging percentage in each of the next two seasons. Campanella's best season actually came as a 31-year-old, when he hit 41HR and hit .312/.395/.611 with the Dodgers. After an off year in 1954, Roy had his fateful 1955 season.

In contrast, Lopez started playing often in 1995 with the Braves, when he was only 25 years old. In that season, Lopez hit .315/.344/.498 with the Braves, similar to Campanella's first real season with Brooklyn. He was always very close to Cooper in terms of OBP, but closer to Campanella in SLG. As a 27-year-old in 1998, Lopez broke out, hitting .295/.328/.540 with 34 home runs, although his OPS had dropped from the year before (when he hit only 23HR). Javy was then hurt during the 1999 sason, only catching in 65 games. Coming back from injury was a disaster, as Javy got worse in AVE, OBP, and SLG in from 2000 to 2001, and 2001 to 2002. He looked finished in 2002 after hitting .233/.299/.372, but obviously bounced back with one of the greatest catching offensive seasons of all-time.

So how did Campanella and Cooper finish after these big seasons? Campanella struggled mightily the next two seasons, putting up .219/.333/.394 and .242/.316/.388 lines. He did manage to hit 33HR in those two seasons, which spanned 718AB, although only 15 doubles. While that doesn't bode well for Lopez, remember that Campanella's 1955 was his 33-year season, while Lopez was 32 last year. Cooper's career went until 1957, actually closing out the same year as Roy. But during those ten seasons after 1947, Cooper only amassed 300AB once, in 1949, when he hit .258/.308/.436. In the ten years after his fantastic 1947 season, Walker Cooper had 2386 at-bats, and hit a paltry .275/.327/.425.

Finally, let's consider the competition Javy will be facing next season. Moving to the AL East, this is a list of the pitcher's Javy will face in-division next year, ranked by their 2003 ERA:

1. Pedro Martinez -2.22
2. Kevin Brown- 2.35
3. Curt Schilling- 2.95
4. Javier Vazquez- 3.24
5. Roy Halladay- 3.25
6. Jose Contreras- 3.30
7. Mike Mussina- 3.40

Yes, there are seven pitchers in the AL East that had ERAs below 3.50 last year, and they rank as some of the best pitchers in baseball. This list also didn't include Derek Lowe, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Miguel Batista, Pat Hentgen, and Jeremi Gonzalez. Lopez didn't face the best competition in the NL East last season, in which Kevin Millwood seemed to be his worst enemy.

When considering the change in ballparks, change in division, and change in age, it's unquestionable that Javy Lopez won't nearly match his 2003 statistics. My guess is .275/.330/.475, likely going from the most valuable fantasy catcher, to one that finds himself below the likes of Mike Lieberthal. But Baltimore fans can't complain. At least he's not Albert Belle.

(This article couldn't have been possible without the help of Rich Lederer, and his trusted Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. So do yourself a favor and head over to Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT, then go buy an Encyclopedia from Lee Sinins)

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Busy weekend, as teams sent 59 players to free agency as an early Christmas present. The list doesn't include any big names, as players like Freddy Garcia and Carlos Lee were kept by their respective teams. Instead, the free agency market was clouded with players who even the average GM likely didn't recognize (i.e. Geraldo Garcia).

Of the 58 players non-tendered, seven are expected or have re-signed with that team. Mark Redman and Michael Barrett re-upped with the Marlins and Cubs respectively, while Edwin Almonte, Gabe Kapler, Jason Shiell, Kris Wilson, and Scott Elarton are all expected to re-sign. Teams can re-sign players then non-tender until January 9th, making the arbitration situation the single most confusing in all of sports. This is what Michael Barrett has seen in the last week:

- Michael Barrett traded to Oakland for P2NL
- Barrett traded to the Cubs for P2NL (a.k.a. Damian Miller)
- Cubs non-tender Michael Barrett
- Barrett signs with Cubs for one-year, $1.05M

Whew. This is an area the next Commissioner (Alderson?!?!) must amend, but something Bud seems much too preoccupied to do. Also, by my count, eleven players were non-tendered with less than twenty games experience for pitchers, and 150AB for hitters. That list is...

- Andy Van Hekken
- Geraldo Garcia
- Scott Chiasson
- Matt Miller
- Kit Pellow
- Alfredo Gonzalez
- Derek Thompson
- Jeremy Hill
- Travis Chapman
- Miguel Ojeda
- Todd Sears

Of that list, I would say that Sears is the best bet to have a future. If you remember, Sears was fantastic in Spring Training last year, but flamed out after only 24G in the Bigs. He is a nice left-handed bat to have off the bench, but his inability to play the outfield well likely will keep him resigned to the 4-A mantra.

That leaves, by my count, 41 meaningful players that have now joined the free agent market. Seventeen of those players are hitters, and only four have earned a starting job over the last two seasons. Karim Garcia held a job well in the second half of 2002 with the Indians, actually leading the Majors in RBI during that span. Marlon Anderson has spent time starting with the Devil Rays and Phillies, occupying both the 2B and 3B roles. Randall Simon has held a starting 1B job at various times during his career, and he held up a platoon with the Cubs late last season. Finally, the best player on the market is Jay Payton, he of the .302/.354/.512 line.

Payton will be the most sought after of the non-tenders, although his numbers are seen as slightly inflated due to Coors Field. Payton is considered a league average centerfielder, although he primarily played in left last season. He's an interesting Coors player, seeing as though his road numbers were still good at .281/.330/.483 in 2003. My gut tells me the Padres will be all over Jay, and that the rumor that Boston was interested is completely bogus.

After Jay, here is a ranking of the other 16 hitters, in terms of usefulness...

1. Karim Garcia
2. Marlon Anderson
3. David Delucci
4. Randall Simon
5. Rod Barajas- only real catcher
6. Damian Jackson
7. Russ Branyan
8. Shawn Wooten
9. Lou Merloni
10. Reggie Taylor
11. Frank Menechino
12. Ruben Mateo
13. Jason Sandberg
14. Ben Petrick
15. Augie Ojeda- if only for the name
16. Jason Tyner

As for the pitchers, I see the list as breakable into three categories, first the starters, then the right-handed relievers, and finally the southpaws. The starting list is limited to three, Jason Johnson, Damian Moss, and Orlando Hernandez. Personally, I find the Orioles actions here indefensible, seeing as Rodrigo Lopez (he of the 5.82ERA), is the only current Baltimore starter with more than 25 2003 starts. Next on that list? Omar Daal with 17 starts. Yikes. In fact, this is the current Oriole pitching staff, barring any changes...

1. Rodrigo Lopez
2. Omar Daal
3. Kurt Ainsworth
4. Matt Riley
5. Eric DuBose

Now surely the team will sign a starter, possibly Sidney Ponson, but how can they defend throwing so many millions into hitting without any pitchers? I mean, as I'm writing this, I hear Javy is close to a 3-year, $23M. My guess? Kelvim Escobar will be the better buy...

Jason Johnson and El Duque are a toss up, where Johnson has the edge in pitching, Hernandez is the bigger and better name. Johnson is fully capable of an ERA in the low 4.00s, although he struggled mightily after the break, and on the road last season. Hernandez was hurt all of last season, and may be getting to the point where middle relief is the better option. And Damian Moss? He sucks, but will undoubtedly have a job next year, if not only for the 'burns.

Here's my ranking of the top 10 right-handed relievers...

1. Braden Looper
2. Danys Baez
3. Cliff Pollitte
4. Jayson Durocher
5. Scott Strickland
6. Jeremy Fikac
7. Mike Lincoln
8. Britt Reames
9. Gene Stechschulte
10. Toby Borland

Looper is the most accomplished of the bunch, what with his new World Series ring and all. Teams with open closing positions will go after him, although I imagine the Devil Rays and White Sox to be the higher bidders. Baez could be very good in a middle relief role, and it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are interested, seeing as they almost acquired him a month ago. Jayson Durocher and Scott Stickland are coming off surgeries, but both had high upside beforehand.

Finally, my list of LOOGYs...

1. Carl Sadler
2. Scott Sauerbeck
3. Trever Miller
4. Armando Almanza
5. Pedro Feliciano
6. Mike Matthews
7. Valerio de los Santos
8. Troy Brohawn

I like Sadler a lot, so I decided to put him above Sauerbeck and Miller. He did quite well in the Indians 'pen last year, and will come very cheap. Miller was also very good in Toronto, but Sauerbeck has a bigger name. The Padres are in the market for a LOOGY, so expect them to land one of these names.

Whew, so that's all the non-tenders. I wanted to close with comments on a few transactions. First, Jeremy Burnitz signed with the Rockies this weekend. I just don't understand where O'Dowd is going this offseason, with millions being spent on the likes of Burnitz and Castilla, when Atkins and Rene Reyes were ready. Next they'll spend on a shortstop, and in a year's time they'll regret not having Bellhorn there. O'Dowd needs to be spending this money in pitching! Imprison O'Dowd!

Secondly, the World Champions named their closer this week, signing Armando Benitez to a one-year deal. Benitez going back to Shea will be quite interesting, as will be his attempts at closing. I've said letting Armando just face right-handers would produce good results, but I wince everytime he faces a left-hander. So does he, as his BB/9 rate skyrockets. The Marlins won't necessarily regret this, but Benitez and Fox isn't the scariest 8-9 combo...

Finally, the Red Sox inked Pokey Reese this weekend, likely as a defensive replacement. He'll be good to start during Lowe's games, but I don't find him completely useful other than that.

That's it for today, have a good one...

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I received several e-mails about the Mickey Mantle article, questioning his place in history. As a result, I decided to take a look at Mantle's career from different vantage points other than Win Shares and Runs Created Above Average and Above Position on a year-by-year basis.

Only eight players in the history of baseball rank higher than Mantle in all four of the Hall of Fame criteria (Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Standards, and HOF Monitor) established by Bill James.

ELITE EIGHT (in alphabetical order):

Hank Aaron
Ty Cobb
Lou Gehrig
Rogers Hornsby
Stan Musial
Babe Ruth
Honus Wagner
Ted Williams

Of the eight players, all but Aaron have also earned The QUAD Award for leading the league in the two most important counting stats (times on base and total bases) and the two most important rate stats (on base percentage and slugging average). Capturing the QUAD demonstrates sheer dominance over the league and is a good measure of peak value, validating the appropriateness of the Elite Eight. Furthermore, all but Hornsby led the entire major league in each of the four categories rather than just their league. The Rajah was victimized by having a concurrent career with Ruth. Cobb (2x), Hornsby (4), Musial (2), Ruth (5), and Williams (5) have been bestowed QUAD honors for their individual league multiple times.

Based on the Jamesian standards outlined above, the Elite Eight would rank ahead of Mantle given that they all beat him out in each of the four categories. But one could make a strong case for placing Mantle ninth on the all-time list of players with the greatest career achievements. An argument could also be made on behalf of Willie Mays, who ranks ahead of his counterpart in three of the four areas (including two top fives). Mays comes up a little sho