BOS     COL
1st Pitch       111     130
1-0 Count       106     109
2-0 Count       106     110
3-0 Count       145      66
0-1 Count        94     104
1-1 Count       132      90
2-1 Count       108     146
3-1 Count       105     106
0-2 Count        93     129
1-2 Count       124      90
2-2 Count       100     100
Full Count      112     119
After 1-0       111     103
After 2-0       111     105
After 3-0       109      92
After 0-1       114     109
After 1-1       120     106
After 2-1       118     120
After 3-1       105     108
After 0-2       112     114
After 1-2       113     104
After 2-2       109     112
Three Balls     110     109
Two Strikes     116     110

As shown, the Red Sox are below average when it comes to hitting in 0-1 and 0-2 counts. They hit well on the first pitch and when ahead in the count. Colorado, which is a bit more of a free-swinging club, has had lots of success on the first pitch (.391/.401/.633 with 50 2B and 37 HR in 764 plate appearances).

I don't know if Josh Fogg can throw first and second pitch strikes past Red Sox hitters. Diasuke Matsuzaka, on the other hand, might be a good fit if he can keep the Rockies guessing all night with his assortment of pitches. It says here that the matchup favors Boston with or without Youkilis in the lineup.

- Rich Lederer, 10/27, 11:45 AM PT

Unless the umpire has a big strike zone, I see the Red Sox knocking Fogg out of the game before the fifth inning is completed. Whether Matsuzaka can make it through five will depend on if he can keep his breaking stuff and pitch count down. Either way, look for both bullpens to get a lot of work tonight.

- Rich Lederer, 10/27, 5:05 PM PT

- Patrick Sullivan, 10/27, 10:34 PM EDT

By the way, when it comes to watching baseball games on TV, I'm sure glad that I live on the west coast. It's absolutely ridiculous when a nine-inning game lasts 4 hours and 19 minutes and ends a few minutes before the clock strikes 1 a.m. on the east coast. Quoting my brother, "Didn't baseball games used to be shorter than football games?"

- Rich Lederer, 10/27, 9:59 PM PT

Pedroia played college ball at Arizona State and was the Pac-10 conference's co-POY (along with Stanford's Ryan Garko, who was a catcher back then). The Boston second baseman was a shortstop with ASU and, in fact, was named National Defensive Player of the Year in 2003 by Collegiate Baseball.

Ellsbury went to Oregon State and was the conference's co-POY (with Arizona's Trevor Crowe). An outstanding defensive center fielder in college and in the professional ranks, Ellsbury is fleet of foot and promises to be a .300 hitter with 30 to 40 stolen bases per year. Ellsbury and Pedroia are also known for their strike-zone judgment and makeup.

Boston has another Pac-10 Player of the Year – Jed Lowrie, who won the award in 2004 – in its ranks. (Interestingly, Pedroia, who was named POY the previous year as a sophomore, finished second behind Lowrie in his junior season.) A second baseman at Stanford, Lowrie has played mostly at shortstop in the minors. He may not have the quickness and range to handle that position in the majors, but there is little doubt that the switch-hitter can produce offensively at the highest level. Lowrie had a combined line of .298/.393/.503 (with 68 XBH, 77 BB and 91 SO) at AA and AAA this season.

Kudos to the Red Sox for drafting, signing, and developing these Pac-10 Players of the Year.

- Rich Lederer, 10/28, 9:10 AM PT

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      Player            HR Year Age
+----+-----------------+--+----+---+
    1 Micah Owings       4 2007  24 
    2 Clint Hartung      4 1947  24 
    3 Don Larsen         3 1953  23 
    4 Ernie Wingard      3 1924  23 
    5 Kerry Wood         2 1998  21 
    6 John Montefusco    2 1974  24 
    7 Don Durham         2 1972  23 
    8 Tom Griffin        2 1969  21 
    9 Ken Tatum          2 1969  25 
   10 Eddie Watt         2 1966  25 
   11 Sonny Siebert      2 1964  27 
   12 Jack Curtis        2 1961  24 
   13 Gary Blaylock      2 1959  27 
   14 Babe Birrer        2 1955  25 
   15 Arnold Carter      2 1944  26 
   16 Clise Dudley       2 1929  25 
   17 Chad Kimsey        2 1929  22 
   18 Jess Doyle         2 1925  27 
   19 Wayland Dean       2 1924  22 
   20 Leo Dickerman      2 1923  26 
   21 Doc Crandall       2 1908  20 
   22 Tom Fisher         2 1904  23 

Source: Baseball-Reference.com Play Index

Owings, who went yard twice in his last start vs. Atlanta on August 18, has now slugged four homers in the last month. He went 4-for-5 vs. the Braves while driving in six runs, scoring four times, and pitching three-hit ball through seven innings in a 12-6 victory.

The 6-foot-5, 220-pound RHP/RHB was a terrific two-way player for Tulane and Georgia Tech. Arizona drafted him in the third round in 2005. He went a combined 21-for-55 (.382) with a home run and 13 RBI with Tucson (AAA) and Tennessee (AA) in 2006. In his senior season in high school in 2002, Owings hit a single-season Georgia state record 25 home runs.

- Posted by Rich Lederer on 8/25/07 at 10:31 a.m. PT

SINGLE-SEASON LEADERS IN TRIPLES
MODERN ERA (1900-PRESENT)

                              YEAR       3B     
1    Chief Wilson             1912       36   
T2   Sam Crawford             1914       26   
T2   Joe Jackson              1912       26   
T2   Kiki Cuyler              1925       26   
T5   Tom Long                 1915       25   
T5   Sam Crawford             1903       25   
T5   Larry Doyle              1911       25   
T8   Ty Cobb                  1917       24   
T8   Ty Cobb                  1911       24   
T10  Ty Cobb                  1912       23   
T10  Adam Comorosky           1930       23   
T10  Earle Combs              1927       23   
T10  Sam Crawford             1913       23   
T10  Dale Mitchell            1949       23

Granderson has already tied for second in the post-World War II/Jackie Robinson era.

                              YEAR       3B     
1    Dale Mitchell            1949       23
T2   Curtis Granderson        2007       21        
T2   Lance Johnson            1996       21   
T2   Willie Wilson            1985       21   
T4   Stan Musial              1946       20   
T4   Willie Mays              1957       20   
T4   George Brett             1979       20   
T4   Cristian Guzman          2000       20   
T8   Garry Templeton          1979       19   
T8   Ryne Sandberg            1984       19   
T8   Juan Samuel              1984       19   
T8   Carl Crawford            2004       19      

The Detroit Tigers lead-off hitter is putting up some remarkable stats this year. With 32 doubles, 21 triples, and 16 home runs through Saturday's action, he is projected to produce 87 extra-base hits over the full season. Moreover, he has an outside shot at a 40-20-20 campaign. Here are the players who have accomplished this feat:

SINGLE SEASON
2B >= 40, 3B >= 20, HR >= 20

                              YEAR    XBH     2B      3B      HR     
1    Jim Bottomley            1928     93     42      20      31   
2    George Brett             1979     85     42      20      23   

Source: Complete Baseball Encyclopedia

Granderson's splits are noteworthy. He is blistering righthanders but hasn't hit a lick against southpaws. He is also performing better on the road than at home.

           AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
vs. RHP   .323  .383  .603  .986
vs. LHP   .154  .207  .269  .476

           AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Road      .307  .358  .582  .941
Home      .267  .336  .479  .815

Interestingly, while I was putting up this post, Granderson led off the NYY@DET game with an inside-the-park home run. He sliced a ball down the left field line that Hideki Matsui couldn't reach and the ball got past him and trickled into the corner, allowing the speedy Granderson to circle the bases for his 17th HR of the season.

- Posted by Rich Lederer, 8/26/07, 10:24 a.m. PT

Twenty-eight of the top 50 seasons took place during the 1980s. Six of the eight 100 SB marks (led by Henderson's 130 in 1982) also happened during the "Elusive Eighties."

- Posted by Rich Lederer, 8/26/07, 6:45 p.m. PT

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Finally, let me just say that being an insider is fun. A LOT OF FUN. But it comes with the hardship of having your inbox just absolutely inundated during times like these. Since you are my readers and I love you all so very much, and because I am configured with a moral fiber few could possibly understand (the Twins trainer confirmed this for me), I feel obliged to reply to every email. Please be sure to read all of my writings over the last six months before you email me to make sure you are not asking something I have already covered.

Be back soon!

- Posted by Sully, 7/28/07, 9:55 AM EST

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See this story in the Minneapolis Star Tribune entitled, Suzuki's deal sets a higher bar for Hunter. Let's compare Suzuki and Hunter on a per 162 game average over the course of their respective MLB careers:

              AVG    OBP    SLG   OPS+   SB   CS   GIDP
Ichiro       .333   .379   .439   120    40    9     5
Hunter       .271   .324   .470   104    17    8    17

In Hunter's defense, Ichiro will be 34 to start next season while Hunter will be 32. But if he thinks Ichiro serves as any sort of proxy for the money coming his way, he has no argument at all. Ichiro is worth boatloads of money in off-the-field revenue and is a far better player than Hunter to boot. I don't doubt that some GM will grossly overpay for Hunter, but when jockeying for negotiating leverage, Hunter should shoot a good bit lower than the great Ichiro.

- Sully, 7/14/07, 1:21 PM EDT

If Ichiro Suzuki is an $18 million per year player, what are Jones and Hunter worth? How about Cameron and Rowand? As Sully pointed out, Ichiro is a special situation because of his off-the-field endorsement value. I would also argue that he is the most apt to put fans in the seats. As such, we can't compare Suzuki to the others without accounting for these non-statistical factors. In any event, which teams do you see stepping up?

Here is how the large-market clubs stand now:

NYY   Damon      4 years/$52M (2006-09)
NYM   Beltran    7 years/$119M (2005-11)
BOS   Crisp      3 years/$15.5M (2007-09)*
CHC   Pie        1 year/ (2007)
CWS   Erstad     1 year/$1M (2007)**
LAD   Pierre     5 years/$44M (2007-11)
LAA   Matthews   5 years/$50M (2007-11)

*  $8M club option in 2010 ($0.5M buyout)
** $3.5M club option in 2008 ($0.25M buyout)

The Yankees, of course, could move Damon to left field. In theory, the Dodgers could do the same with Pierre. The Mets and Angels are committed to Carlos Beltran and Gary Matthews, respectively. Coco Crisp could become a fourth outfielder, if need be. When it comes to Boston, the question isn't really about Crisp as much as it is Jacoby Ellsbury. Will the Red Sox let Crisp and Ellsbury battle it out next spring or will they look outside the organization for their next CF, even if means blocking Ellsbury's path to the bigs? The Chicago Cubs will face the same thought process as it relates to Felix Pie.

The White Sox are the most likely team to be in the market for one of these free agent CF. To the extent that these free agents go elsewhere, the Braves, Twins, Padres, and Phillies will need to find suitable replacements. The latter could turn to Michael Bourn, a 24-year-old speedster who can run 'em down but is unlikely to be much of a threat at the plate.

Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Toronto won't be in the market for a center fielder during the off-season. In theory, there are a number of potential suitors but, realistically speaking, there are only a handful of teams likely to dole out the big bucks for a Jones or Hunter type.

As for me, I see the Yankees stepping up and making a run at Jones or Hunter, especially if Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Put me down for Jones signing with the NYY and Hunter going to the CWS. I can see Cameron returning to the Padres and Byrnes to the Diamondbacks (although as a LF). I don't have a particularly good feel for Rowand but will take a wild guess and say that Oakland or San Francisco ends up with him. Neither Bradley or Patterson will draw much interest and will wind up signing shorter-term deals in the hopes of testing the market once again.

- Rich Lederer, 7/14/07, 11:30 PM PST

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The College World Series action continues today with Louisville vs Mississippi State, which is currently underway. Rice will face North Carolina this evening.

Last night, Oregon State defeated Cal State Fullerton by the score of 3-2. Freshman hurler Jorge Reyes went six innings for Oregon State and allowed only three hits and one run. He out-dueled 50th overall draft pick and future Arizona Diamondbacks' prospect Wes Roemer, who went eight innings and allowed seven hits and three runs, although one was unearned.

Junior outfielder Nick Mahin had the best offensive day for Cal State Fullerton and went 2-for-3 with a home run and two RBI. Oregon State had a couple of key offensive performances from senior outfielder Scott Santschi, who went 2-for-3 with a homer and two RBI, and junior catcher Mitch Canham, who went 2-for-4 with a stolen base. Canham was taken with the 57st overall pick of the recent draft by San Diego.
-Posted by Marc Hulet, 6/17/07, 2:13 p.m. EST

Freshman third baseman Chris Dominguez led the offence with three hits, including two homers and three RBI. Senior first baseman Daniel Burton also had three hits, a homer and drove in three runs.

Freshman Justin Marks received the start for Louisville and went 5.1 innings and allowed three earned runs, while walking five and striking out five.

Freshman Chad Crosswhite received the start for Mississippi but did not fair as well. He lasted only 2.1 innings and allowed five runs on seven hits.

Freshman centerfielder Jeffrey Rea led the Mississippi offence with three hits in the lead-off position but failed to come around to score. Freshman second baseman Brandon Turner had two hits and drove in three runs.
-Posted by Marc Hulet, 6/17/07, 7:45 p.m. EST

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After using their first pick (ninth overall) to take high-ceiling, prep pitcher Jarrod Parker, the club added three polished and promising college pitchers in the next four rounds: Barry Enright (Pepperdine), Sean Morgan (Tulane) and Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton). Any person who has followed the D-Backs even from afar knows that the team's biggest weakness has been pitching (aside from groundball machine Brandon Webb and a couple others). Those three college pitchers - if signed - should move very quickly and could be helping Arizona in a wide-open division within two or three years.

The club also addressed an organizational weakness with the addition of college catcher Ed Easley (Mississippi State) with a pick in the supplemental round. With a few "safe picks" in the bag, Arizona then took another high ceiling player who oozes tools: shortstop Reynaldo Navarro (Puerto Rico).

D-Back fans should be absolutely thrilled with their clubs' first six picks - and those players taken in rounds five through seven were not too shabby either. General manager Josh Byrnes and scouting director Tom Allison have this team headed in an exciting direction, especially when you consider the talent already on the field in Arizona.
- Posted by Marc Hulet, 6/9/07, 5:25 p.m. ET

Moskos pitched superbly in the closer role for Team USA last summer. He recorded an ERA of 0.86 with six saves in 21 innings pitched over 18 relief appearances, allowing just eight hits and four walks with 35 strikeouts. A power pitcher, maybe Moskos can become a B.J. Ryan-type lefty closer. However, his last start vs. Mississippi State on Friday night left a lot to be desired.

 IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO 
5.0   9   6   5   0   4

You can have the relief pitcher at No. 4. Give me the big bat, especially a switch-hitting catcher with a rocket arm. Oh, and if it is all about not wanting to deal with Scott Boras and saving money, then there were still plenty of other choices out there, including Jason Heyward, a 6-4, 220-pound, power-hitting outfielder with a mature approach at the plate despite not turning 18 until August. I like his ceiling and apparently so do the Atlanta Braves.
- Posted by Rich, 6/10/07, 7:45 a.m. PT

Incumbent first baseman Prince Fielder is only eight months older than LaPorta. With the Prince of Milwaukee leading the league in HR (22), SLG (.645), and TB (149), and second in OPS (1.026) and OPS+ (169), the Brew Crew seems as set at 1B as can be for at least the next 4 1/2 years. Maybe LaPorta can pull a Frank Howard or Greg Luzinski or even a Pat Burrell or Carlos Lee and hit enough to overcome his weak fielding in left field. Perhaps Melvin thinks he can flip LaPorta to another team at some point. Or is it possible that Bud Selig winked and told the team that he would put them back in the AL so Fielder or LaPorta could DH?

If Milwaukee took him for trade purposes, then count me as someone who believes management made a huge mistake in taking LaPorta. Only time will tell.
- Posted by Rich, 6/10/07, 11:15 a.m. PT

There could be a number of reasons for this. Perhaps the Braves felt their system is beginning to thin out so they wanted some players that could move quickly, or perhaps they simply took the best players available with each pick and it is simply a coincidence. Regardless, the prep players that they took are intriguing and offer plenty of upside.

With their first pick (14th overall), the Braves grabbed Georgia high school outfielder Jason Heyward, who simply oozes tools and is (obviously) a local boy. Baseball America stated in a recent scouting report that Heyward has more potential than almost any player in the draft, aside from a healthy Andrew Brackman. With raw plus-plus power, Heyward could be challenging another Georgia high schooler - Jeff Francoeur - for playing time in four to five years.

Iowa high school infielder Jon Gilmore was the Braves' second choice with the 33rd pick in the supplemental round. Gilmore struggled through injuries this season, but was excellent on the showcase circuit last summer. He was expected to last until the second or third round but by popping him early, Atlanta will probably keep him away from Wichita State. One knock on Gilmore is that he spends all his energies on hitting and neglects his defense.

The Braves third prep pick was California two-way player Freddie Freeman, who is relatively inexperienced on the mound but throws 90-93 mph with a solid slider. I'm not 100 percent sure if Atlanta plans to have him pitch or play first base. My guess is that they plan to first try him as a hitter, as he is a 6-5, left-handed batter with plus power potential. If all else fails, it is easy to convert a player back to a pitcher, rather than the other way around (unless your name is Rick Ankiel). Freeman is a Cal State Fullerton recruit.
- Posted by Marc Hulet, 6/10/07, 4:05 p.m. ET

I'm not sure what scouting director Mike Radcliff's marching orders were, but I would have preferred Ryan Dent out of Long Beach Wilson HS (CA) over Revere. Although not quite as fast as Revere, Dent, who was selected by the Boston Red Sox with the No. 62 pick in the draft, has a stronger arm and a much more advanced bat. I believe Dent, a shortstop in high school, would make a better all-round CF than Revere.

Other than the two college seniors—Matt LaPorta (MIL/#7) and Casey Weathers (COL/#8)—with little or no leverage, if anybody taken in the first round signs for less than slot, I would imagine that it would be Revere.
- Posted by Rich, 6/10/07, 6:00 p.m. PT

Here is the scouting report I wrote, but was not able to post, on Davis when he fell:

Kentrail Davis, OF, Theodore High School (AL)

Height/Weight: 5-9, 195 | DOB: 6/29/88

Davis currently possesses a line-drive swing, but he has significant power potential, about as much as you can pack into a 5'9'' frame. He has been compared to Kirby Puckett. Davis is swift on the base paths and covers a lot of ground in the outfield. He has a strong throwing arm but his defensive skills are raw. An all-around work-in-progress, Davis is attractive because of his five-tool potential. He has shown better in summer showcase, than during the school season. He is represented by Scott Boras.
-Posted by Marc Hulet

Interestingly, I like Davis as a No. 1 pick far better than I like the Rockies' actual first round pick... with all apologies to Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers. I just absolutely hate to waste a first round pick on a future closer or set-up man. Weathers is a great player and a great second round pick.

Davis is extremely raw, as pointed out in the above profile, but if he reaches his ceiling he will have a much bigger impact as an everyday player than Weathers ever will pitching two or three times a week. But I rate their chances of signing him as 30/70.
- Posted by Marc Hulet, 6/10/07, 9:33 p.m. ET

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Senior lefthander and UConn signee Elliott Glynn pitched a complete game to win his ninth game of the season. Glynn also contributed to the victory with a run-scoring double that nearly left the yard in the top of the seventh.

The Bruins and Comanches featured two of the nation's top prep shortstops in Ryan Dent (who went 1-for-1 with three walks, an RBI and two runs scored) and Christian Colon. Both players are special talents and expected to be selected in one of the early rounds in the MLB draft on Thursday. Wilson's Dent and Anaheim Canyon's Colon have committed to UCLA and Cal State Fullerton, respectively. However, the most gifted player on the field may have been Wilson center fielder Aaron Hicks, who is only a junior. Look for Hicks, who played in the Area Code Games last summer after his sophomore season, to be one of the most highly sought high school players in next year's draft.

Elsewhere, Michigan upset Vanderbilt, the #1 overall seed, 4-3 to advance in the winner's bracket in Nashville. UC Irvine surprised Texas 3-1 and is the lone undefeated team in the Round Rock Regional. Oklahoma State (14-3 over Arkansas in the Fayetteville Regional) and Mississippi State (3-0 over Florida State in Tallahassee) were the other upset victors over seeded clubs.

Rice (Houston), North Carolina (Chapel Hill), and Arizona State (Tempe) are the only seeded teams without a loss. Virginia (Charlottesville), Mississippi (Oxford), Arizona (Wichita), Missouri (Columbia, MO), and Louisiana Lafayette (College Station) are sitting pretty in their respective Regionals.

The Myrtle Beach and Columbia, SC Regionals were rained out on Saturday. Clemson-Coastal Carolina and South Carolina-UNC Charlotte will face off in second round action on Sunday.

- Rich Lederer, 6/3/07, 12:25 a.m. PST

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I always have a pretty good idea of what players I want to take in what round before the real draft occurs, but I always wait to draft my players until after to make sure I don't significantly over or under-draft a player. I also never take one of the Top 10 players chosen.

Let's take a look back at my last four drafts (tables include what round I picked them in, their name, the team that actually drafted them and where they were really drafted):

2003
1.  Chad Billingsley  Los Angeles (NL)  24th overall
1S. Anthony Gwynn     Milwaukee         2nd round
2.  James D'Antona    Arizona           2nd round 
3.  Tim Moss          Philadelphia      3rd round
4.  Tony Richie       Chicago (NL)      4th round
5.  David Marchbanks  Florida           7th round

Chad Billingsley is a pick I am still elated about and, at the time, I was torn between drafting the Angels' Brandon Wood or the Dodgers' right-hander. I can't say I'm pleased with the way the Dodgers have handled Billingsley, but he still has the stuff to be a star in the starting rotation. The walks are worrisome though (69 in 111 career MLB innings).

Anthony Gwynn, son of Padres star Tony, has the chance to be an average starting center fielder or a very good fourth outfielder. James D'Antona has really turned his career around as of late after struggling in his first three pro seasons and could contribute in Arizona at some point this year. Tim Moss was released by Philly earlier this season, Tony Richie has struggled with injuries and David Marchbanks was last seen in the independent leagues.

Grade: B

2004
1.  Taylor Tankersley  Florida       27th overall
1S. Jay Rainville      Minnesota     39th overall
2.  Eric Beattie       Detroit       2nd round
3.  Mark Reed          Chicago (NL)  3rd round
4.  Josh Baker         Milwaukee     4th round
5.  Brad McCann        Florida       6th round

Taylor Tankersley hasn't been as impressive as I thought he would be in pro ball, but he is still a key part of the Marlins' bullpen. I liked Jay Rainville more than Homer Bailey mainly because Bailey has no interest in baseball whatsoever when he's not on the diamond (it's just a job to him) so I thought that could keep him from reaching his potential. Rainville has struggled with injuries and missed all of 2006.

Eric Beattie came down with Steve Blass disease and has walked 17 batters in nine A-Ball innings this season. I was really excited about catcher Mark Reed (brother of Seattle's Jeremy) but he has developed young catchers syndrome and has stalled in the low minors. Josh Baker was the forgotten man in the Rice University rotation behind Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, and Phil Humber but he had a solid college career. His pro career, like his former teammates, has been slowed by injuries. Brad McCann, older brother of Brian, has stalled in High A-Ball with Florida.

Grade: C-

2005
1.  Cesar Carrillo  San Diego   18th overall
1S. Michael Bowden  Boston      47th overall
2.  Daniel Carte    Colorado    2nd round
3.  Nick Weglarz    Cleveland   3rd round
4.  Kevin Whelan    Detroit     4th round
5.  James Avery     Cincinnati  5th round

The dreaded Tommy John surgery struck Cesar Carrillo, who was dominating the minors before his elbow problems. Michael Bowden has looked very good in a hitter's haven in Lancaster this season. He should develop into a solid No. 3 starter, or perhaps even a No. 2 and was a steal at the 47th pick. Daniel Carte is looking like a fourth outfielder or 'AAAA' player. Raw Canadian Nick Weglarz still has a long way to go but he's young and has power potential. Kevin Whelan helped Detroit obtain Gary Sheffield from New York and looks like a future set-up man in the majors. Another Canadian - James Avery - is looking solid in Double-A for Cincinnati.

Grade: B-

2006
1.  Kasey Kiker     Texas          12th overall
1S. Steve Evarts    Atlanta        43rd overall
2.  Brett Anderson  Arizona        2nd round
3.  Chad Tracy      Texas          3rd round
4.  Garrett Olson   Minnesota      4th round
5.  Mark Melancon   New York (AL)  9th round 

It's too early to really comment on this draft, although I am not overly happy with my first round pick. I wanted Billy Rowell, but he was grabbed with the ninth pick by Baltimore. I was then torn between Pedro Beato, Adrian Cardenas, and Kasey Kiker. I had been hoping for a prep hitter or a college pitcher, but I didn't like any of the available players. I felt really nervous about taking three high school pitchers with my first three picks... I guess I've been watching Jays' general manager J.P. Ricciardi for too long.

Steve Evarts has some make-up issues that worry me, but Brett Anderson has been very good in A-Ball. I love Chad Tracy's offensive potential, but I'd like to see some better patience at the plate in A-Ball. Garrett Olson doesn't look like he'll have the power to play third base everyday in the majors. Mark Melancon has undergone Tommy John surgery and will be out until 2008.

Grade: Incomplete

Well, I don't think any Major League scouting directors should be worried about losing their jobs to me, but I think I did a solid job considering the limited number of scouting reports I had to go on, especially in 2003 and 2004. But scouting is definitely a fascinating job.

Any suggestions on what players I should target in my 2007 draft?

- Marc Hulet, 5/19/07, 12:04 p.m. EST

I looked at Cook first because I already had an idea about how his pitches moved. I have two starts for Cook in my database, the game at Coors and his start on April 8th at San Diego, and the pitch charts for each game are below. For some reason, of the 35 pitches tracked for Cook 30 were sinkers, so I can only compare his sinker across the two outings.

The first thing that jumps out at me from looking at these two charts is the differences in movement of his sinker at Coors compared to Petco. There's a huge possibility that the differences on the charts are the result of something other than an actual difference in how a ball moves at altitude, such as a calibration error or other technical glitch, so be careful with what you make of this. However, the differences between the two starts are so extreme and the break of pitches has been shown to be relatively consistent across parks, that I think this is somewhat of a real phenomenon. The biggest difference in Denver is that the horizontal break of the slider is almost seven inches less than in San Diego. Cook's sinker also ended up almost two inches lower in Denver. It appears that the sinker gets more downward action in Denver, but loses action in on right-handed hitters. Here's a chart showing just the sinkers for both games to further highlight the differences.

I'm looking at Lowry now and I'll post something about him later tonight.

- Joe Sheehan, 5/20/07, 7:32 p.m. EST

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 G   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+
35  147  25  49  11   0  11   34   0  1  13  21  .333  .385  .633   167

Hardy also ranks second in TB (93) and RC (36); fourth in H, XBH (22), and SLG; sixth in OPS (1.018) and OPS+; seventh in AVG; and tied for ninth in 2B. He is one of three non-1B/corner OF in the top 10 in OPS (the other two being Chipper Jones, 4th, and Chase Utley, 10th).

Combine Hardy's offensive accomplishments with the fact that he is the shortstop on the team with the best record in baseball and one doesn't need to look up VORP, WARP, or Win Shares to know that J.J. has been the National League's Most Valuable Player thus far.

- Rich Lederer, 5/13/07, 7:25 a.m. PST

Ponson had worn out his welcome in St. Louis, while playoff hero Weaver (2.45 ERA in five starts), Marquis and Suppan left for greener pastures (and wallets). Weaver took a lucrative one-year deal from Seattle in the hopes of increasing his value for 2008 and spurned a multi-year offer from the Cards. Mulder, though technically still with the club after re-signing as a free agent, is rehabbing his shoulder after having surgery late in the 2006 season and has yet to throw a pitch for the club in 2007.

The Cardinals surprised a lot of people by filling the holes in the 2007 rotation with two relievers: Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright. 2006 rookie Anthony Reyes was also given an expanded role. To finalize things, the Cards then dipped into the free agent pool and came away with the enigmatic Kip Wells.

So how is the new rotation doing? Probably not too well given the Cardinals are nine games out of first place with a 15-19 record. To make matters worse, the Cardinals lost ace Chris Carpenter to elbow surgery (bone spurs). Carpenter was re-signed last December to a five-year, $65 million contract with an option for 2012 and has battled injuries throughout his career.

The Rotation:

                 W-L   ERA   IP    H   BB-K
Chris Carpenter  0-1  7.50   6.0   9   1-3
Anthony Reyes    0-5  5.03  34.0  28  10-28
Adam Wainwright  3-2  5.01  41.1  55  18-26
Braden Looper    4-2  2.66  44.0  40  14-26
Kip Wells        1-7  6.51  47.0  45  22-36

Randy Keisler    0-0  5.65  14.1  17   4-5
Brad Thompson    0-0  1.80   5.0   6   1-2 (as a starter)

The Departed:

                 W-L   ERA   IP    H   BB-K                  
Jeff Weaver      0-6 14.32  22.0  50   7-12
Sidney Ponson    2-5  6.93  37.2  54  17-23  
Jason Marquis    5-1  1.70  47.2  30  13-24
Jeff Suppan      5-3  3.00  54.0  57  10-28

The current Cardinal starters are 8-17, while their departed starters from 2006 are a combined 12-15. But Marquis and Suppan combined have more wins than the seven starters the Cardinals have tried this season. Ouch.

- Marc Hulet, 5/13/07, 10:45 a.m. EST

The Jays' minor league system has also been hit hard, with six starting pitchers suffering from mild to serious shoulder injuries: RHP Billy Carnline, LHP Eric Fowler, LHP Ricky Romero, LHP Chi-Hung Cheng, LHP Davis Romero and RHP Robert Ray. Fowler, Ricky Romero, Davis Romero and Cheng are among the Jays' top 30 prospects, according to Baseball America.

Only 2005 first round pick Ricky Romero and Ray have made appearances this season. Every club's system suffers through injuries but it seems unusual for so many top pitchers to suffer from the same type of injury at the same time.

- Marc Hulet, 5/13/07, 7:35 p.m. EST

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Two teams - the San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays - stand to benefit more than any other team this season. The Padres have six picks in the first and supplemental first rounds. The Jays have five and then add another two in the second round, as does San Diego.

If you listen to Baseball America - and many minor league watchers do - both Toronto and San Diego desperately need good drafts as their minor league systems are ranked 25th and 29th respectively out of the 30 major league clubs.

Toronto and San Diego took different approaches to the first round last season as Toronto took the top prep hitter in Travis Snider and San Diego signed Matt Antonelli, a player with a lower ceiling but he was considered a "safe" college pick. Both Snider and Antonelli had respectable debuts in 2006 and have raked in 2007. Snider batted more than .400 in April in the Midwest League and Antonelli batted .291 with three homers and more walks than strikeouts in the California League.

Other clubs who stand to benefit from multiple picks in the first few rounds include Texas, San Francisco, Arizona, Washington, Cincinnati, Oakland and the New York Mets. San Francisco is an interesting case as the club has five picks in the first and supplemental first rounds, but lost its second, third and fourth round picks for signing free agents Barry Zito, Rich Aurilia and Dave Roberts.

- Marc Hulet, 05/06/07, 10:18 a.m. EST

As Marc mentioned, the Padres have six picks (#23, 40, 46, 57, 63, and 64) and the Blue Jays five (#16, 21, 38, 45, and 56) in the first and supplemental rounds. As you can see, Toronto has two of the top 21 spots (its own plus Texas' #1 at 16 as compensation for losing Frank Catalanotto, a Type-A free agent). However, don't feel sorry for the Rangers. Although TEX lost its #1, the organization added the 17th and 24th overall choices in exchange for Carlos Lee (HOU) and Gary Matthews, Jr. (LAA).

The only other team with two first-round picks is the San Francisco Giants (#22 and 29). With the rapid-fire success of Tim Lincecum (who is making his MLB debut tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Game of the Week), perhaps the Giants will be motivated to take a couple of college players with the potential of rising quickly through the system to help replenish baseball's oldest roster.

- Rich Lederer, 5/6/07, 9:30 a.m. PST

Scherzer, who signed with the independent Fort Worth Cats of the American Association in April, made his first start on Friday night and threw 3 2/3 innings (54 pitches) of no-hit ball. A scout I spoke to that evening shared a direct report from within his organization: "four-seamer was 94-98, two-seamer 91-93, slider 86-87, and the changeup was in the low-80s." He said Scherzer's four-seamer was "explosive" and used words like "sink" and "bore" when discussing his two-seamer.

Working in Scherzer's favor is the fact that this year's draft is thin on college righthanders. His situation is not unlike Luke Hochevar's last year. Hochevar, who was drafted in the supplemental round (40th overall) in 2005 by the Los Angeles Dodgers, failed to ink a contract, re-entered the 2006 draft, and was selected by the Kansas City Royals with the #1 pick. He earned a bonus of $3.5 million.

Scott Boras represents both pitchers and can certainly make the case that Scherzer could be taken as high as #2 (behind Vanderbilt's David Price) in June, remaining firm in his bonus demands at or above the $3M mark rather than slot money of $2M or so (which apparently is the sum Arizona's GM Josh Byrnes has offered). Although the two sides have not spoken in a long while, the Diamondbacks have until May 31 to sign him. If they do, it wouldn't be the first time the club made a last-minute deal to acquire their #1 selection. Just two years ago, Arizona hooked up with Stephen Drew right before the deadline.

If the Royals don't select Scherzer, he could go to the Washington Nationals at #6. Mike Rizzo, the Diamondbacks' former scouting director, joined the Nats last July and may push for taking Scherzer. Just how high Scherzer goes is likely to be a function of his pitching prowess between now and then, his health, and the amount of money agent Boras will demand this time around.

- Rich Lederer, 5/6/07, 10:30 a.m. PST

The seven-time Cy Young Award winner will be joining his buddy Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and eventually Phil Hughes in a starting rotation that could go from decimated to one of the best in a matter of a month or two. However, one note of caution is warranted: in five seasons with the Yankees the last time around, the Rocket's ERA ranged from 3.51-4.60 with an average of 3.99. Pitching to DHs rather than pitchers and to AL East opponents instead of NL Central, the 44-year-old is unlikely to match the numbers he put up in Houston the past three seasons.

- Rich Lederer, 5/6/7, 3:45 p.m. PST

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Here is what Baseball America had to say about Lincecum before the draft:

[Lincecum's] fastball, already a plus pitch, improved a grade as he added nearly 15 pounds of muscle and has reached 98 mph this season, often sitting between 91-96. His power curveball already was one of the best in the country and has become more effective now that he also shows a slider he can throw for strikes... His unorthodox delivery has been described as resembling a pinwheel as he rocks back, makes his body do most of the work and seemingly brings his lightning-quick arm along for the ride... His delivery, resilient arm, size and stuff remind many scouts of Angels setup man Scot Shields, and most scouts think Lincecum will thrive in a relief role. His present stuff rivals any pitcher in the draft, and he should move quickly.

But based on his solid pro showing as a starter in 2006 and 2007, the Giants see Lincecum as a starter, and so they should. As of April 27, Lincecum had been very, very good for Fresno:

        W-L   ERA  GP   IP   H   BB-K   BAA
Fresno  3-0  0.36   4  25.0  9  11-32  .113

Left-handed batters are hitting .083 against Lincecum. With runners in scoring position, he has yet to allow a hit in 5.1 innings. Although it is early in the season, it seems Lincecum is at least as ready to be in the majors as fellow 2006 first rounders: Seattle's Brandon Morrow and New York's Joe Smith.

The biggest problem is that the Giants don't have a spot for him in the rotation. The National League West club has a solid starting rotation and two other young pitchers in the bullpen that could be starting for most teams.

                       ERA   IP    H  BB-SO
LHP Barry Zito        3.70  24.1  20  11-15
RHP Matt Cain         1.55  29.0  11  13-21
RHP Matt Morris       2.49  25.1  24  12-12
LHP Noah Lowry        3.38  26.2  22  13-13
RHP Russ Ortiz        4.50  26.0  33   7-14

RHP Brad Hennessey    3.24   8.1   8   1-3
LHP Jonathan Sanchez  5.14   7.0   7   5-7

So what do you do with Lincecum? Do you leave him where he is until an inevitable injury occurs? Do you bring him up and throw him in the pen as a long reliever and spot starter, while sending down Hennessey or Sanchez to get extra minor league seasoning? Or do you replace fifth starter Russ Ortiz, who appears to be rejuvenating his career?

Either way, it's a nice problem to have, especially for an aging team such as the Giants.

- Marc Hulet, 4/29/07, 10:30 a.m. EST

Pitcher          AGE   ORG   LG   IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
Homer Bailey      21   CIN  INT  21.1  12   6   4   2   9  13  1.69 
Yovani Gallardo   21   MIL  PCL  23.0  14   6   6   0   7  33  2.35
Matt Garza        23   MIN  INT  19.0  20  10   6   2  10  18  2.84
Adam Miller       22   CLE  INT  25.0  23   9   8   0   8  23  2.88 
Jeff Niemann      23    TB  INT  25.0  23  10  10   4   9  30  3.60
Kevin Slowey      23   MIN  INT  18.2   9   3   2   1   1  20  0.96 
Andy Sonnanstine  24    TB  INT  30.0  21  11   9   3   6  37  2.70

Check out Yovani Gallardo's stats: 12.9 K/9 and 5.5 H/9 without allowing a home run. Gallardo's numbers matched up well with those of Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey last year in the Florida State (A+) and Southern/Eastern (AA) Leagues, but the second-round pick in 2004 has never quite gotten the acclaim of his fellow first rounders from the same draft. He just may turn out to be the best of the three.

- Rich Lederer, 4/29/07, 9:45 a.m. PST

4/29/07

Pitcher   OPP   IP  H  R  ER  HR  BB  SO
Jered     CWS  5.2  6  0   0   0   0   5
Jeff       KC  0.1  7  6   6   0   1   0

2007

Pitcher    IP   H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO    ERA
Jered    13.1  17  11   8   2   4  11   5.40
Jeff     11.1  31  23  23   2   4   7  18.27

CAREER

Pitcher     IP    H     R   ER   HR   BB    SO    ERA
Jered    136.1   111   47   43   17   37   116   2.84
Jeff    1579.1  1703  877  821  194  432  1051   4.68    

Although Jered has thrown less than 10% of Jeff's career innings in his one-plus seasons in the big leagues, it is pretty obvious that the brothers are not one and the same as so many have suggested.

The younger Weaver's velocity and command were acceptable yesterday. He was throwing 88-91 in the first inning and working mostly in the high-80s the rest of the game. The tall righthander had more than two times the number of strikes as balls and didn't walk a batter. However, he was a little too fine and threw too many pitches (107) for not completing six innings. What impressed me the most, however, was his changeup. Great arm action with the same arm speed as his fastball, yet the change of pace was clocked at 79-81 or about 8-10 MPH below his four seamer. He wasn't afraid to pull the string against RHB and, in fact, used it effectively vs. Jermaine Dye before blowing a fastball by him up and in for his fifth strikeout on his 107th and last pitch of the game.

- Rich Lederer, 4/29/07, 11:00 a.m. PST

                     AVG   OBP   SLG
Burke - 2007        .219  .329  .329
Burke - 2006        .276  .347  .418
Pence - 2007 (PCL)  .341  .398  .588
Pence - 2006 (TEX)  .283  .357  .533

Two notes; First, Corpus Christi, where Pence played in 2006, plays as one of the tougher hitting parks in the Minor Leagues. Second, Pence slugged a ridiculous 1.071 in 28 Grapefruit League at bats this season. There was plenty of evidence there to suggest Pence was ready to contribute at the Big League level. Tim Purpura disregarded the evidence and sent Pence to Round Rock to start the season.

So my question in a situation like this is "What has changed Tim Purpura's mind in a month?" Did it just dawn on him that Pence would be the superior option? If not, what's the excuse? Baseball teams are in the winning business and should put those players that will best help them achieve that end in the lineup. This is especially true for a team like Houston, who, even if they do qualify for the postseason will likely only do so by the skin of their teeth.

If the Astros end up just a few games out of the playoffs, you can think back to April when their offense couldn't get going and Hunter Pence was tearing up the Pacific Coast League.

- Patrick Sullivan, 4/29/07, 2:15 p.m. EDT

Here is what Baseball America, the definitive voice on the baseball amateur draft, said about Snider before the draft:

Toronto was prepared to draft [Matt] Antonelli, but now they're hot and heavy for Snider, arguably the best hitter available in the draft. Concerns about his weight (the 6-footer checks in at 240) are outweighed by his impressive, polished bat.

Snider's powerful left-handed swing generates above-average bat speed and raw power, and he's become noted not just for hitting lots of home runs, but for hitting lots of long home runs. He does a good job of hanging in against left-handed pitchers and staying back on breaking balls, trusting his hands. His work ethic earns raves from scouts; he organizes practices three times a week for his Jackson High team, which was undefeated through 21 games, and gives hitting lessons to local children as a senior class project.

Snider's selection is noteworthy simply because the Jays had never seriously considered a high school player with the first overall pick since general manager J.P. Ricciardi's tenure began on Nov. 14, 2001.

     college  prep  juco
2002    30    15      5 
2003    33     7     10
2004    35     5     12 
2005    29    12      8
2006    32     8      8 

In those five years the Jays signed only seven of their 47 high school picks. Four of those came in 2006 (Snider, OF Mikal Garbarino, IF Luis Fernandez, and IF Jonathan Del Campo).

So far Snider is having a great season in the Midwest League:

          AVG   OBA   SLG  AB   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB-K
Lansing  .362  .382  .623  69  25   7   4   1   13   4-11

He's also not having any trouble fitting in with his teammates - most of whom are three to four years older than he is (the average team age is 22).

"I feel like I can go out every day and not feel like the young guy or being the first rounder, or whatever. There is so many great personalities in [the clubhouse]," Snider said. "The biggest thing for this team this year is our camaraderie. Everyone sees eye-to-eye and I wouldn't say that we have one spoken leader. I would say that we have a lot of guys here who just go out and play the game the right way and we've got a great manager and a great staff below him and I think that we have some good pieces here. Hopefully we can just put them together and continue to win baseball games."

With Snider's solid start to his first full season, Jays fans are already beginning to ask when Snider will be promoted. But that is one of the furthest things from his mind.

"The personal success is something that I can't say that I don't care about, but to me it is not the No. 1 thing. I just want to go out there without putting the pressure on myself to get moved up to Dunedin or to make it to Double-A by the end of the year," Snider explained. "Obviously those thoughts are going to go through any guy's head because that is the name of the game, but for me - as it was in Pulaski [Rookie Ball] - it is just for me to go out there and have a good year and let the Blue Jays, [director of player development] Dick Scott and those guys make the decisions - when they feel I'm ready or if I'm ready."

"I feel comfortable with the staff and the organization that whenever they think that I'm ready, I'm going to go and that is all that I can ask for."

Perhaps in part due to Snider's success and maturity, Ricciardi has already gone on record in the local Toronto media stating that he is willing to have more prep players drafted this year, although he is still leery of high school pitchers due to their unpredictability. Toronto has seven picks in the first two rounds of the 2007 draft so scouting director Jon Lalonde will be busy.

A special thanks to Chad Hillman

- Marc Hulet, 4/29/07, 3:30 p.m. EST

To follow up a little on Rich's post about the Weavers, here's Jered's pitch chart from Saturday.

You can really see the difference in average speed between his fastball (91 MPH) and off-speed pitches, particularly his changeup (82 MPH) in this chart. The difference in speed might help to account for the nine swings-and-misses at his changeup. Weaver was also able to command his changeup effectively and of the 24 changeups he threw, 17 were strikes (71%), compared with 63% of his fastballs. However, of the six hits he gave up, two were off of his changeup. This could be somehow related to the pitch, but I'd want to look at more than two singles before I start damning his changeup.

One cool thing I learned over the weekend is that a negative horizontal break on a pitch means that the pitch moves away from left handed hitters, while a positive break means the pitch moves away from right handed hitters. Using this idea, which I'll look at more in-depth in the future, you can see that Weaver's fastball moves slightly in on a right hander, and his changeup breaks more towards a right hander.

- Joe Sheehan, 4/29/07, 11:30 p.m. EST

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ARod is in pretty good company when it comes to Yankees home run hitters. Let's take a look at the top 10 single-season HR leaders for the Bronx Bombers:

                             YEAR       HR     
1   Roger Maris              1961       61   
2   Babe Ruth                1927       60   
3   Babe Ruth                1921       59   
T4  Mickey Mantle            1961       54   
T4  Babe Ruth                1928       54   
T4  Babe Ruth                1920       54   
7   Mickey Mantle            1956       52   
T8  Lou Gehrig               1936       49   
T8  Lou Gehrig               1934       49   
T8  Babe Ruth                1930       49   

Roger Maris, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, and Lou Gehrig. ARod's name would fit in there just fine. In fact, he happens to sit in 11th place now (with 48 in his MVP season in 2005). How about Joe DiMaggio, you ask? Tied for 14th with 46 in 1937, his second year in the majors. Take a second look at that list and you'll notice that Rodriguez is already number one among all right-handed batters. After DiMaggio, you have to go all the way down to 28th to find the next RHB (Alfonso Soriano, 2002, and the Yankee Clipper, 1948, with 39).

In the meantime, Rodriguez passed Stan Musial and Willie Stargell for 25th on the all-time home run list with 476. He is a shoo-in to become the youngest player to hit 500 (beating out Jimmie Foxx) and could rank among the top 20 before the year is out.

For those of you who get worked up about Barry Bonds passing Hank Aaron, relax. Alex Rodriguez is going to pass them both by the time he hangs 'em up.

- Rich Lederer, 4/21/07, 8:15 a.m. PST

According to Dave Smith, the creator of Retrosheet, Robinson had more at-bats hitting cleanup than all of the other positions in the batting order combined. Smith created the following table, which details Jackie's batting performance by each spot in the lineup.

Batting
Position   AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  HP   BB   SO  SF   AVG   OBP   SLG
First      80   15   25    6   1   1   14   0   10    7   0  .313  .389  .450
Second    999  205  288   55  12  22  110  18  120   66   0  .288  .375  .433
Third     645  130  207   32   4  20   90  12  110   41   0  .321  .429  .476
Fourth   2483  496  818  157  32  79  439  35  382  139   2  .329  .426  .514
Fifth     112   18   31    5   0   1   12   2   18    9   0  .277  .386  .348
Sixth     290   47   84   12   5   7   45   3   58   12   5  .290  .407  .438
Seventh   191   26   48    3   0   6   17   2   34   10   1  .251  .368  .361
Eighth     49    7   12    1   0   1    5   0    6    2   1  .245  .321  .327
Ninth      28    3    5    2   0   0    2   0    4    4   0  .179  .281  .250

Despite never accumulating 20 home runs in a season, Robinson was a highly productive hitter in the four hole. He could do it all. Hit for a high average with decent power, walk, and run the bases as well as anyone from his era.

Interestingly, Jackie scored 13% more runs than he drove in while batting fourth. I wonder if anyone else has ever had such a ratio of R/RBI from the cleanup spot?

- Rich Lederer, 4/21/07, 4:30 p.m. PST

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Halladay responded by throwing a 10-inning complete game victory. He allowed six hits and only one run. He also struck out two and did not allow a walk. Both pitchers allowed one home run (Halladay to Magglio Ordonez and Bonderman to Alex Rios).

This was the first 10-inning performance by a starting pitcher in the major leagues since St. Louis' Mark Mulder threw a shutout against the Houston Astros on April 23, 2005. Interestingly enough, Halladay also threw one other 10-inning win in his career and it was against the Tigers on Sept. 6, 2003. He threw 99 pitches and allowed only three hits. His opponent, Nate Cornejo, threw the game of his life and allowed no runs and only five hits in nine innings of work. In both 2003 and 2006, snake-bitten reliever Fernando Rodney lost the game in the 10th inning.

Yesterday, Halladay - known as 'Doc' to Toronto fans - put on a pitching clinic. The 29-year-old right-hander topped out at 92 mph and threw 107 pitches (70 strikes). Halladay survived with only two pitches - his fastball and curveball, although he threw three versions of his fastball: a two-seamer, cutter and an occasional four-seamer. Halladay also has a change-up, but rarely utilizes it in games.

In his early days, Halladay would dial his four-seam fastball up to 95-97 mph but it lost a lot of movement. In his second season, in 2000, Halladay was hit hard and posted a 10.67 ERA in 19 games (13 starts).

The former No. 1 pick and one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball was demoted all the way to A-Ball to work with Mel Queen, the pitching coach he first found success with early in his pro career. Two years later Halladay won 19 games in the majors and had a new-found philosophy on pitching, which has continued to evolve over time. He now focuses on inducing groundballs and pitching to contact to keep his pitch counts down, as he has suffered through various forearm ailments in recent years.

On Friday night, Halladay was in fine form. Despite an average fastball speed, he got 22 of his 29 outs on the fastball, with the other seven coming on the curve. Both his strikeouts were a result of the knee-buckler. With eight exceptions, Halladay started each batter with a fastball.

He "struggled" early in the game against the free-swinging Tigers and threw 16 pitches in the first inning, followed by 13 and then 15. Halladay then got the heart of the order, Gary Sheffield, Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, 1-2-3 in the fourth. He threw another 15 pitches in the fifth and 10 in the sixth. After that, perhaps smelling victory or simply rising to the occasion, Halladay did not throw double-digit pitches again in an inning. He retired Ordonez, Guillen and Sean Casey on eight pitches in the seventh and then finished the game with six pitches in the eighth, nine in the ninth and nine in the 10th.

This game was a great lesson for every pitcher or fan out there who believes you have to throw 95 or 100 mph to be a successful hurler. Smarts, command, control and changing speeds can help you go a long, long way. Just ask Halladay about it while he's polishing his 2003 Cy Young Award.

- Marc Hulet, 4/14/2007, 5:00 p.m. EST

DATE  OPP   RESULT   IP  H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO  DEC 
4-4   ATL   L, 3-2  7.0  4   0   0   0   1   8   - 
4-9   @NYM  L,11-5  6.0  6   3   2   0   3   7   - 
4-14  HOU   W, 8-5  6.0  8   5   5   1   0   3   W

Hamels gave up two earned runs in 13 innings in his first couple of starts, but the bullpen blew both wins. On April 4, Tom Gordon cost the southpaw his first by allowing two runs in the top of the ninth to tie the game and the Braves scored the game winner in the 11th to beat the Phillies 3-2. Hamels exited his second start on April 9 with a 5-3 lead but Geoff Geary and Jon Lieber surrendered seven runs in the eighth to the Mets to strip him of another win.

For the season, Hamels is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA. He has struck out 18 batters and allowed only four walks in 19 innings. Cole didn't give up his first home run until Houston's Jason Lane took him deep in the fourth inning on Saturday despite facing the powerful Atlanta and New York lineups in his first two starts. Last year, Hamels allowed 19 long balls in 132 1/3 IP. If the former first round pick can continue to cut down on his home runs and walks, he could rapidly become one of the best starters in the league as I predicted last year after his major league debut to the consternation of a few readers.

- Rich Lederer, 4/15/07, 9:15 a.m. PST

Major League Baseball will honor Robinson in a nationally televised game this evening between the Dodgers and Padres. All of the Dodgers will wear Jackie's No. 42 - retired league-wide in 1997 - on the back of their jerseys tonight. Appropriately, Chris Young, who wrote his senior thesis at Princeton on Robinson (as reported by ESPN The Magazine's Jeff Bradley), will be on the mound for San Diego. The game features a half-hour pre-game ceremony attended by Commissioner Bud Selig, Robinson's widow Rachel, Hank Aaron, and Frank Robinson, among others.

As we honor Robinson, let's not forget Larry Doby, who broke the color barrier in the American League two-and-a-half months later. At a minimum, the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers should hold Larry Doby Day on July 5 when the two teams meet for an afternoon tilt in the finale of a three-game series. It would only be fitting for the Indians to wear Doby's No. 14 on their backs that day.

Robinson and Doby were not only pioneers but great players and even better men.

- Rich Lederer, 4/15/07, 4:40 p.m. PST

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Starter           IP   SO   H   BB   R   ER   Team Result
Adam Wainwright   7    4    5   3    1   1    Win, 4-2
Rich Hill         7    6    1   0    1   1    Win, 9-3
Jorge De La Rosa  7    5    4   3    1   1    Win, 3-1
Jason Hirsh       6.2  8    6   0    1   1    Win, 4-3
Robinson Tejeda   7    1    2   3    0   0    Win, 2-0
Micah Owings      5    6    1   3    0   0    Win, 7-1
Oliver Perez      7    6    5   0    1   1    Win, 11-1
Matt Belisle      6    6    4   1    1   1    Win, 6-1

Rotation depth is hard to come by, and yet critical to any team's hopes. If yesterday was any indication, there are some teams whose outlook might be considerably sunnier than many had thought.

- Patrick Sullivan, 4/7/2007, 10:46 EST

K-Rod's first save on Opening Day against the Texas Rangers was his best performance. He pitched one inning and retired the side in order. It was a cheap save in that he had a three-run lead but at least the man who led the American League in saves in each of the past two seasons pitched well.

Frankie's second save took place on Wednesday in a day game that I attended. He was brought into the ninth inning once again with a three-run lead over the Rangers. It should have been an easy save but it was everything but. Rodriguez allowed one run on two hits and a walk. He ended the game by striking out Nelson Cruz with the tying run on base and the winning run at the plate. A little bit too exciting for Mike Scioscia's wishes.

Scioscia went to his main man the following evening vs. the A's in another game I attended. Rodriguez probably felt out of place as the score was tied 3-3 when he jogged in from the bullpen in left field to start the ninth. He struck out Shannon Stewart and got Milton Bradley to pop out. Up to the plate stepped Mike Piazza who deposited a 1-1 fastball over the wall in right-center field for his 420th career home run. Huston Street shut down the Angels in the bottom half of the inning and Rodriguez was charged with his first loss of the season.

With two saves and a loss, K-Rod was asked to nail down Friday night's victory with another commanding three-run lead. He made it interesting, allowing a one-out single to Todd Walker followed by a double to Travis Buck. Walker may have tried to score under normal circumstances but had no reason to head home down by three runs in Exhibit 37 as to why ERA is a less than desirable indicator of a reliever's performance. Rodriguez then got Marco Scutaro to line out to right before whiffing Bobby Kielty to end the game.

Frankie has pitched well one time in four games, yet has a MLB-leading three saves to show for his efforts. He is throwing 93-96 MPH but doesn't seem to have a clue where his fastball is going and his slider hasn't had the type of bite that we have become accustomed to seeing in the past. Is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end for K-Rod? I don't know, it might be neither. After all, the season is less than a week old. But he looks more like Don Stanhouse than his old self in the early going.

- Rich Lederer, 4/7/07, 8:20 a.m. PST

In the American League, Baltimore has won one game out of five and sits in last place in the East. Three of our four panelists picked the O's to finish at the bottom of the division. The 5-1 Angels have the best record in baseball. In our AL West Preview, I wrote, "I'm more confident predicting the Angels to win than I am any other team in any other division." The Halos are off to a fast start without the likes of Jered Weaver, Bartolo Colon, Chone Figgins, and Juan Rivera. I see this team getting stronger over the course of the season although its winning percentage will obviously regress from the current .833 mark toward a more normalized level of .550-.575 for a first place club.

Over in the National League, was anybody - I mean ANYBODY - caught flat footed by Washington's start? The Nationals are 1-5 and looking more like the 1962 Mets than not. I can't fathom the team losing fewer than 100 games. This is, by far, the worst club in all of baseball. The Nats are averaging less than three runs per game while allowing seven. The pitching staff, if you can call it that, promises to be one of the worst in the post-expansion era. In our NL East Preview, I said, "The Nats are a lock to give up more than 900 runs and could conceivably allow 1,000 or more." Well, they are on pace to give up 1,134 and their ace John Patterson has started two of the team's six games.

In the meantime, kudos to the Mets for their outstanding start. They beat the Cardinals up and down and around in the opening series and have now scored 34 runs while allowing only 8. I'm not at all surprised by the team's offensive firepower but perhaps underestimated its pitching. The Redbirds, on the other hand, are 1-4 and have scored just 7 runs while giving up 27. This team is highly dependent on Albert Pujols (which is a good thing), Scott Rolen, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and, to a lesser degree, Jim Edmonds and Jason Isringhausen. I still think St. Louis is the class of the NL Central but the margin of error is razor thin.

Speaking of the Central, the Astros are not doing themselves any favors in trying to lure Roger Clemens back in June. Houston won't be interested in him or the Rocket won't be interested in them if the club isn't playing at least .500 ball and looking as if it has a legitimate shot at winning the division.

Lastly, the San Francisco Giants, a team all four of our panelists picked to finish dead last in the NL West, looks like a club in a heap of trouble. The starting pitchers aren't all that bad - Barry Zito is Barry Zito and Matt Cain is one of the most valuable pitching properties in all of baseball - but the offense is in need of a Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 season in order to avoid scoring fewer runs than any team in the majors.

- Rich Lederer, 4/8/07, 9:40 a.m. PST

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The two could not have taken more different paths to get to where they are now. Papelbon was Boston's closer all of last season, dominating virtually everytime he was handed the ball until hurting his shoulder on September 1. For his part, Wainwright toiled in relative obscurity (otherwise known as "middle relief") for a club fighting to stay above .500. Still, they were both very effective in 2006.

       
             G   IP   ER   H   BB   SO   WHIP
Papelbon    59  68.3  7   40   13   75   0.77
Wainwright  61  75.0  26  64   22   72   1.15

Just as Papelbon's season crumbled, Wainwright's became interesting. Jason Isringhausen, the longtime St. Louis closer, finally shut it down after his September 6th appearance in Washington. He had battled injuries and ineffectiveness all season long. So for the stretch run, as St. Louis was looking to wrap up a Division crown, it was Wainwright who would be seeing St. Louis's higher leverage innings. He performed well enough to earn Tony LaRussa's confidence and would be entrusted as St. Louis's closer for the postseason.

So while Papelbon's future hung in the balance and many wondered if his shoulder would heal in time for him to start the 2007 season, Wainwright emerged as one of the game's fiercest and most dominant relievers. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Wainwright's place in St. Louis baseball lore is secure. Wainwright threw just under 10 innings for St. Louis in the postseason, allowing no runs, just 9 baserunners while striking out 15. He notched four saves.

This season both Wainwright and Papelbon come to Spring Training ready to take on broader responsibilities for their respective clubs. Neither has started regularly before in the Big Leagues, but something tells me both will acquit themselves just fine in their new roles.
- Patrick Sullivan, 3/17/2007, 9:33 AM EST

Looper has now started four times this spring. His stats are as follows:

IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO    ERA
14  17   5    5    3    6   3.21

St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan believes the 32-year-old Looper, who has appeared in 572 contests without a GS, can be an effective starter. Drafted by the Cardinals in the first round with the third overall pick of the 1996 amateur draft, Looper pitched four games for the Redbirds in 1998 before getting traded (along with Armando Almanza and Pablo Ozuna) to the Florida Marlins for Edgar Renteria. He tossed more than 70 games for the Fish every year from 1999-2003, then signed as a free agent with the New York Mets in January 2004. Braden served as the Mets closer for two years before reuniting with Duncan and Tony LaRussa.

Looper has a career ERA of 3.57 and has never had a year where his ERA+ was worse than the league average. The eight-year veteran relies on a hard sinker and a split-fingered fastball to get more than his fair share of grounders. He tends to give up a lot of hits (617 in 607 1/3 career IP) and will need to keep the ball down to succeed in his new role. The cousin of Aaron Looper, who pitched six games for the Seattle Mariners in 2003, would do well to develop a changeup to improve his effectiveness vs. LHB:

           AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR    PA
vs. RHB   .234  .297  .306  .603   16  1506
vs. LHB   .306  .372  .464  .836   30  1107

How Wainwright and Looper fare as starters will go a long way in determing the fate of the defending champs in 2007.
- Rich Lederer, 3/17/07, 2:09 p.m. PST

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Based on a link provided by Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, I also read an obit by MLB.com's Ken Gurnick, which included the following tidbit:

At one point, Labine retired future Hall of Famer Stan Musial 49 consecutive times.

Even though Tom Lasorda called Labine "one of the finest pitchers to ever play the game," I didn't think Gurnick's statement passed the smell test. As such, I checked Labine's pitching vs. batting record at Baseball-Reference.com. I scrolled down and learned that Musial was 1-for-13 with 4 BB vs. Labine. I clicked on Stan the Man's name and was directed to a more detailed page. I was reminded that the data only covered 1957-on (which is as far back as Retrosheet, the provider of this information, goes - at least at this point in time).

Given that Labine made his major-league debut in 1950, it was clear that the pitching vs. batting record was incomplete. I sent my friend Dave Smith, the creator of Retrosheet, an email with "Hyperbole?" in the subject title, asking if he could shed some light on this subject. Dave wrote back, "Hyperbole is way too polite a word. I first prepared this report in 1999 when I saw the story for the first time. Here are the numbers. I will contact the MLB site to explain how incorrect the claim is - he didn't even face him 49 times!"

Career results of Stan Musial vs Clem Labine:

AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  HP  SO  SF  RBI    AVG   OBP   SLG
42  10   1   1   1   6   0   2   0    3   .238  .333  .381

A little investigative work later and the fable was removed from Gurnick's article.

Update: As it turns out, there are a number of sites guilty of perpetuating this myth.

- Rich Lederer, 3/2/07, 8:00 p.m. PST

- Rich Lederer, 3/2/07, 9:50 p.m. PST

Los Angeles Angels

Player: Jered Weaver, RHP

What I said: "... hard to project as more than a No. 3 or 4 starter."

What happened: Weaver cruised through Triple-A, and won 11 games in 19 big league starts with a 2.56 ERA, which would have been good enough for the American League lead if he had enough innings. Following one of his early big league starts, a pro scout emailed me with simply, "If that's not a top of the rotation starter, I don't know what is." I was dead wrong, and provided his early-season arm troubles don't become a long-term concern, he'll probably rack up some genuine ERA titles down the road.

Grade: F

- Rich Lederer, 3/3/07, 9:15 a.m. PST

- Jeff Albert, 3/3/07, 2:55 p.m. CST

When all else is equal, striking out infrequently is better than the alternative, but rarely is everything equal. I mention all of this in light of Mike Schmidt's recent comments about Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell, during which he referred to the pair as "mediocre" and cited their high number of strikeouts as the reason why.

Pat Burrell is not "mediocre." Adam Dunn is sure as hell not "mediocre." Both strike out a lot, but both also make outs of any kind more rarely than most of their peers. And yet here is what Dunn had to say regarding Schmidt's criticism. From a piece by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com:

"Well, that's a Hall of Fame opinion. I'm not proud of it, either. But I don't need somebody going around saying it when I already know it. I don't need to hear it from people. I think some of these guys forget how hard the game was."

It's nice that Dunn processes criticism and wants to get better but I am surprised that he does not seem to recognize just how good of a hitter he is. And I bet he is not alone in this regard. Perception becomes reality, even to the most accomplished players. I wonder if, say, Bobby Grich and Dwight Evans realize how good they were. Dunn may have struggled in 2006 for Cincinnati but still is a career .245/.380/.513 hitter, Hall of Fame neighborhood numbers if he can sustain them over a long career. There is a tendency by baseball fans, players and media - heck, by humans - to dwell on what an individual cannot do instead of appreciating all of the things a given person does well.

Dunn may strike out a lot and he arguably is falling a bit short of his potential, but he is a very good player. It would be nice if the next time someone points out all of the strikeouts Dunn racks up, that the critic would give equal play to Dunn's ability to draw bases on balls and his impressive yearly HR per AB numbers.
- Patrick Sullivan, 3/3/07, 5:25 PM EST

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James introduced the Defensive Spectrum (shown below) in the 1979 Baseball Abstract and elaborated on it in more detail than ever before in the 1982 Baseball Abstract.

As a player grows older, and in certain other cases, he tends to be shifted leftward along this spectrum. Sometimes he moves in dramatic leaps, like Ernie Banks, a shortstop one year and a first baseman the next, or Rod Carew, from second to first. Sometimes he crawls unevenly along the spectrum, like Pete Rose. Sometimes, like Willie Mays, the only movement in a player's career is within the area covered by one position; that is, the player moves gradually from being a center fielder who has outstanding range to being a center fielder with very little range. But always he moves leftward, never right. Can you name one aging first baseman who has been shifted to second base or shortstop to keep his bat in the lineup?

James conceded that certain young players whose position-specific skills are either undeveloped or under-utilized can move rightward but noted these shifts are always dangerous and often disastrous. He also pointed out the implications of the leftward drift in building a ballclub, including the need "to allow the talent at the left end of the spectrum to take care of itself, as it will, and to worry first about the right end."

Silver states, "...while it's nice to dream of a day when every college will teach a Sabermetrics 101 course, and this poster will be hanging prominently on the wall, I know that probably won't be the case." Let's hope not. James' poster will more than suffice, thank you.

- Rich Lederer, 2/24/07, 11:25 a.m. PST

One of these things is not like the other,
One of these things just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

Thanks to our good pals at Sesame Street, we see that Pedroia is the odd man out in the Boston Red Sox' lineup. The 2004 World Series champions have a veteran-ladened lineup, which does not often feature a raw rookie in its midst.

The 5'9'' second baseman has only 89 at-bats in the majors and he struggled during his debut in the fall of 2006 by hitting .191/.258/.303. Even so, the Red Sox have seen enough to feel comfortable with Pedroia in the starting lineup.

On the plus side, the 23-year-old walked seven times and also struck out only seven times in the majors. In fact, Pedroia has never struck out more than he has walked. Based on his minor league numbers, he has all the makings of a solid No. 2 hitter on a very powerful team.

His career minor league numbers are .303/.392/.454 and Pedroia has the pedigree as a former second round pick in 2004, drafted 64th overall. In their 2004 draft preview, Baseball America stated:

Pedroia's tools are below-average across the board, but people have learned not to sell him short. Scouts expect him to be a big leaguer, and probably an everyday player. He's not physically gifted at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but Pedroia is a classic overachiever and possibly the best player in college baseball. He has a great work ethic and exceptional sense of the game. He's hard-nosed and competitive, and without peer as a team leader. He's a blood-and-guts player who thrives under pressure and makes everyone around him better.

The only real threats to Pedroia's playing time are utility player Alex Cora and non-roster invitee Joe McEwing. It appears safe to say that Pedroia (barring injury or a complete collapse) will play a key role in the successes of the Red Sox this season. My guess is that he'll be in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting.

- Marc Hulet, 2/24/07, 9:36 p.m. EST

The Orioles went into the off-season looking to make some noise in an effort to convince fans that they were serious about competing with Boston, New York and Toronto. But what they ended up with was a bunch of middle relievers past their prime and a couple of back-of-the-rotation starters.

The haul:
RHP Jamie Walker, 35, three years/$12 million
RHP Chad Bradford, 32, three years/$10.5 million
RHP Scott Williamson, 31, one year/$0.9 million
RHP Danys Baez, 29, three years/$19 million

RHP Jaret Wright, 31, $7 million in 2007
RHP Steve Trachsel, 36, $3.1 million in 2007

Honorable mentions:
RHP Jeremy Guthrie (waivers), C Adam Donachie (Rule 5) and OF/IF Freddie Bynum (minor trade)

The funny thing is that Baltimore traded young reliever Chris Britton away (for Wright), who may be a better option than any of the four veteran relievers they brought in.

As well, they did nothing to address their offence, which placed (in the American League):
10th in Doubles
12th in Triples
11th in Homers
11th in Total Bases
8th in On-Base Percentage
10th in Slugging Percentage
7th in Average

Another puzzling thing is that one of Baltimore's better power threats, Jay Gibbons, is feeling ignored by the Orioles. Instead of giving Gibbons a shot to prove himself defensively, they continue to trot out the declining Kevin Millar to first base.

"It doesn't appear that I will get a fair shot, and that is all I am looking for," Gibbons said. "I don't know what the reasoning is. I am not going to pout about it. I am here, and what I really want is to win. But do I think I should be given a shot to win a job? Absolutely. Why not?"

         AVG   OBP   SLG  VORP
Gibbons .277  .341  .458  11.8
Millar  .272  .374  .437  15.5

The stats are similar, but Gibbons' ceiling is arguably much higher... especially with the power numbers.

For a team that is already struggling to convince players to come to Baltimore (even for above-market offerings), the player grumblings do not help.

- Marc Hulet, 2/25/07, 5:22 p.m. EST

"There's only two prospect lists that matter, Baseball America's and mine"

I'll steer clear of offering further commentary regarding my thoughts on either Carroll or Goldstein but let me just say that I urge everyone to check out the work of Bryan Smith and John Sickels and then decide for yourself if you agree with Goldstein.

- Patrick Sullivan, 2/25/2007, 9:24 p.m. EST

- Rich Lederer, 2/26/07, 6:59 a.m. PST

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It's too bad the Marlins and Cabrera seem to be at odds with each other. Cabrera is an Albert Pujols-type talent and should be taken care of in a similar manner. Pujols and the Cardinals avoided arbitration by agreeing to a seven-year extension after the slugger's third season. Pujols earned $7M in 2004, $11M in 2005, and $14M in 2006, and he will receive $15M in 2007, and $16M in 2008-2010 with a club option for $16M in 2011 (or a $5M buyout if not exercised).

I wonder what Pujols would be worth in today's market? Can you say "partner?"
- Rich Lederer, 2/18/07, 12:20 a.m. PST

In 2006, Belliard hit a combined .272/.322/.403 with 30 doubles, 13 homers and 67 RBI in 147 games with Cleveland and St. Louis. Acquired by St. Louis on July 30 in exchange for Hector Luna, Belliard earned a World Series ring as he started 14 of the Cardinals' 16 post-season games at second base.

Those numbers certainly appear good enough for a two or three-year deal at about $3 or $4 million per year. So what happened? Well, Belliard isn't a pitcher. While the market for pitchers exploded (again) this off-season, the market for position players - outside of Alfonso Soriano and Vernon Wells - did not take a huge jump.

The 31-year-old second baseman does not find himself in an enviable position (pun not intended). The Nationals already have Cristian Guzman (returning from injury) at shortstop with two years remaining on a four-year, $16.8 million contract. They also have former shortstop Felipe Lopez at second base. In an ideal world, the Nationals would simply eliminate Guzman, the weakest of the three players, but he still has $8.4 million on his contract and zero trade value.

The leaves Belliard to battle for a back-up position and hope for an injury to Guzman or Lopez. But he also has a fight on his hands for two backup infield spots with Bernie Castro, Joe Thurston, Jose Macias, D'Angelo Jimenez, Tony Womack, Josh Wilson, Tony Batista and Kory Castro.

It should be an interesting (ugly?) spring for the Nationals.
- Marc Hulet, 2/18/07, 11:29 a.m. EST

Since 2003, Zambrano has been one of the very best in baseball. He's the type of player you want to lock up pre-arbitration, the way the Cards did with Pujols, the Indians did with Grady Sizemore and the Twins did with Johan Santana. Offering a young player a lucrative pre-arb contract, financial security for life, in exchange for a below open-market pricetag is a great way to stockpile talent affordably while forging goodwill with your players. The Cubs are either blind to this phenomenon or they drastically undervalue the great Zambrano.
- Patrick Sullivan, 2/18/07, 12:47 p.m. EST

Today's offering from The Curly Haired Boyfriend (Carl Everett's name for Dan and probably his greatest contribution as a Red Sox) has Shaughnessy on display in all his hacktastic glory. There's an introductory, elitist shot at Ft. Myers.

Position players are scheduled to "report" Tuesday, and their first workout is supposed to be Thursday at the minor league complex at the dead end of Edison Road in this godforsaken town.

And far be it from me to defend Curt Schilling and his love of microphones, but the irony of Dan Shaughnessy calling another a "Blowhard" is just too rich to ignore.

We have rejoiced in the retirement of Keith Foulke and we won't sleep until the Sox make a decision on the 2008 contract extension for the Big Blowhard himself, the inimitable Schill.

And then there's the old CHB standby, the reader alienation jab.

This Sox talk is enough to fill the sports hole for the nightly news at 6 and 11 and keeps the fan-boy bloggers breathlessly e-mailing one another 24/7. Our local baseball team is finally filling the void left in the wake of the Patriots' stunning loss at Indianapolis four weeks ago today.

All of this, mind you, is just a lead-in for Shaughnessy's favorite target, Manny Ramirez. There are almost too many displays of unprofessionalism and personal contempt to display here but I will lay out a few of the highlights below.

There's been no word from Camp Manny since he curiously quit in the middle of the crucial Yankees series at Fenway in late August.

In case you are wondering, Dan is referring to the five-game sweep the Yanks laid on Boston when the AL East was still a race in 2006. The funny part about Shaughnessy's mentioning of this series is that Ramirez was the only guy on the team to show up for the "crucial series" in question, hitting .727/.850/1.455 over the five games.

Nothing from Manny's teammates who loathe his attitude but bite their tongues and say nothing in the hope that Manny will return and post his customary .320, 35, 110.

Just trust Dan. He knows Manny's teammates "loathe his attitude" and there is no evidence required and Dan would appreciate it if you would kindly stop asking questions. Back to Dan-O's fan alienization routine.

But he also has a propensity to shut it down, and we never know why. And please, don't be a stooge and attempt to perpetuate the farcical theory that Manny was too wounded to play last September. Every man in the Sox clubhouse knows what went down; teammates simply wouldn't say anything on the record, lest they risk "losing" Manny.

The amazing part of the Manny-fan relationship is that most Boston baseball customers, who are normally critical and discerning, have lost their minds when it comes to Mr. Ramirez. The timeless rules and standards don't apply. Manny can hit. It's a joy to watch him hit. And it's pretty clear that he's incapable of offending the sensibilities of most Sox fans.

Said another way, "I have a press-pass and you don't and I know things that you can't and Manny is lazy and that's just how it is."

And then there's the grand finale, a jab with a tinge of racism mocking Manny's intelligence.

Can't wait for that Manny Moment when he sees Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time and asks teammates, "Hey, who is that Japanese guy and why is he wearing Johnny Damon's number?"

Well Dan, you've altogether parted with any sense of professionalism or even civility. But hey, maybe Around the Horn will ask you to be a regular next season.
- Patrick Sullivan, 2/18/07, 4:52 p.m. EST

What this does now to Cleveland is it thrusts Joe Borowski into the closer's role. Borowski, for those of you who are not overly familiar with him, is somewhat similar to former Cleveland Indians closer Bob Wickman (now with Atlanta). Borowski does not throw hard - he works in the upper 80s with his fastball and also features a splitter and a slider - but he has solid command.

The former 32nd round draft pick has experience as a closer and he saved 33 games for the 2003 Cubs and 36 games with the surprising Marlins of 2006. However, last season Borowski walked 33 batters in just under 70 innings, which is not a good sign. He is headed over to the American League where there is one more powerful hitter to worry about in the lineup.

The other affect Foulke's retirement has on Cleveland is that the team has one more spot available for the glut of bullpen hopefuls. Jason Davis, who is out of options, is more likely to stay in Cleveland now as a long man. Veteran Roberto Hernandez will likely slide into the setup role vacated by Borowski. Newcomer Aaron Fultz should secure the LOOGY role on The Tribe. When healthy the last three years, Matt Miller has put up solid numbers and should have the inside track on a spot. Rafael Betancourt, a rare mainstay in the Cleveland bullpen the past three years is almost assured of a spot as well.

That leaves one spot, should Cleveland go with a 12-man rotation, for Tom Mastny (three options remaining), Fausto Carmona (one), Rafael Perez (two) or Fernando Cabrera (one). Perez could have the inside track if the Indians want a second lefty in the pen. Veteran Cliff Politte was also recently signed to a minor league deal.

The 2007 spring bullpen battle may not be quite as cutthroat as we expected, but Cleveland should still have a relatively successful staff even without Foulke.
- Marc Hulet, 2/18/07, 6:42 p.m. EST

John Patterson, at $850,000, is the highest-paid pitcher on the staff. He has thrown more than 100 innings in a season once yet has already been named as the Opening Day starter. The candidates for the other four spots include such notables as Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico, Joel Hanrahan, Shawn Hill, Mike Hinckley, Mike O'Connor, Beltran Perez, Tim Redding, Billy Traber, and Jerome Williams (who had one of the lowest K/BF rates of any pitcher in the minors last year).

As Tim Kurkjian detailed a few days ago in an article for ESPN The Magazine, "the top nine potential starters won 11 major league games among them last year." Good luck Nats fans. There is almost zero chance that your team will lose fewer than 100 games this year.
- Rich Lederer, 2/18/07, 10:28 p.m. PST

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