What metric are you using for defensive runs? Baseball Prospectus (creaters of VORP) had an article a week or two ago that argued that Chipper's defense is a major liability (according to FRAA). They also quote a couple other fielding metrics that have him below average (including Bill James' Win Shares and Ultimate Zone Rating).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7451

I cannot access that article, but I would be surprised if UZR had him below average (also, UZR just has about 5 years, including his two worst). Adjusted Range Factors, like FRAA and WS, simply miss the boat on trying to guesstimate the number of groundballs that were hit to Chipper.
The defensive numbers come from the method linked at the bottom of the article.

As interesting as I find everything here, I'm most intrigued by the statement: "Everyone over 800 VORP is a future hall of famer, with the exception of Rafael Palmiero."

Included in this list is Edgar Martinez. While Martinez is one of the best right handed hitters ever (along with Manny Ramirez, Joe DiMaggio, Honus Wagner, Frank Thomas, Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby.....), I'd put Edgar in the top 15 (RH'ers) of all time. We'll see if Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols crack the list, but at this point, I'm pretty sure they will. This being said, I think Martinez has a very uphill battle for the HOF. The DH stigma among the old guard of HOF voters will be tough to overcome.

That's a very good point wrt Edgar. Certainly for what my general position is - I'm anti-DH, but here I believe I have under-estimated just how dominant Edgar was over his tenure.
I agree that he may get left out of the HOF.

i found this article pretty confusing. you gloss over the part where you prove this wrong

"In the face of a significant groundball pitching staff with Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and lots of left-handed pitcher innings, Chipper “should” have seen many more chances than league average. To be converting fewer outs than league average could only mean he is a poor defensive third baseman. Chipper being moved off third base in 2002 to a weak fielder position in left field demonstrated that even the Braves recognized Chipper’s shortcomings."

You just say that this is wrong and then move on to your statistics without explaining them. Also the assumption that "Chipper will play many more seasons." is possible, but far from a sure thing. And you state this as if it is

The Braves dont think Chipper is a good defender. Most every defensive rating puts Chipper as a bad or below average defender....but you came up with a new metric (full of assumptions and guesstimations just like every 'advanced metric' is) that 'proves' Chipper is really a good defender?

Consider me skeptical.

Some of these 'advanced defensive metrics' could probably be used to 'prove' that the Earth is flat. While common sense and many other metrics indicate that the Earth is round....our new metric says its flat, and if the new metric says it...end of discussion.

chris, the explanation for the chances is in the link at the bottom. It would chew up a good portion of the space to go over all of it. Chipper may not not play many more seasons, but it is very, very likely.

Here is the link to the UZR that Baseball Prospectus cited. (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html)
I should also mention that Simple Fielding Runs, another one of BP's fielding metrics based on play-by-play data, "takes a much more charitable view of Jones' defensive value."

"Most every defensive rating puts Chipper as a bad or below average defender"

I don't think this is accurate. For all of Chipper's career we have actual ball-in-play data. Using that data instead of guesstimates (that FRAA and WS uses) assuredly yields a more accurate picture of Chipper's performance. We're merely using real counts of balls hit to Chipper rather than extrapolating from adjusted expectations.

I'm not sure in past years but I'm certain that Chipper Jones has a very good above average defender in the last 3 years, so good that he probably should have won the Gold Glove last season, not Wright.
That's the problem with a player making a defensive reputation. When he changes his aproach, most people don't notice it. And Chipper certainly improved his defensive abilities.

"The Braves dont think Chipper is a good defender."

I think the correct sentence would be: The Braves didn't think Chipper was a good defender. They think so now.

Thanks, Andrew. Those ratings (I guessed 5 years) only have *2* years of Chipper at third base. And those have weightings.

Mark,
Chipper was always a pretty good defender. He injured his knee in 1999 (IIRC), and that probably edged him toward the OF. He should NOT have won teh GG last year. He wasn't close to the best fielding 3B. Pedro Feliz was by a wide margin.

Chipper certainly deserved the GG last year. People heard once that Chipper was a bad defender and now that's all they go on.

Either way, Chipper has been on a tear for the last 2 years, injuries have just ruined it. No one has been better from the left side of the plate. Two years ago he came off the DL and hit .500 for an entire month but not many people noticed because he went right back to the DL IIRC.

If he can somewhat healthy and play 140 games he'll have an amazing season.

UZR, Chipper Jones, 2003-2007:
3b: +24 runs, 353 "games"
OF: -6 runs, 129 "games"

UZR, Chipper Jones, 2000-2003 (old version):
http://tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html
3B: -5 runs, 154 "weighted games"
OF: -1 runs, 234 "weighted games"

Overall, a bit above average (depending how you want to treat his OF fielding play).

The Fans' Scouting Report has him hovering around average since 2003.

I don't see any real disagreement here. If someone wants to call him an average fielding 3B, fine. +5 runs per 162G, fine. Anything outside that? Ehhh, tougher sell.

Chris calls him +4 per season, and that's perfectly reasonable.

Anyone who wants to discuss GG fielding at 3B and doesn't mention Pedro Feliz, has not been paying attention to (a) the numbers, (b) the Giants fans who watch him, or (c) Giants games at all.

Blah, blah, blah....I know we are on a "stat wonk" site, but let's get real for a moment.

Chipper Jones is an absolute menace with a bat in his hands, and from either side of the plate. He had, what, 8 or was it 9 consecutive 100 rbi seasons, and that run was only shortened by injury, not by poor batting. He's healthy, and pounding the crap out of the ball. Always has.

Defensively? Not the range of some others, but has VERY good hands. Almost nobody comes in on a bunt/infield ball and barehands it better than Chipper -- watch the tape.

And as far as overall offensive numbers, Chipper is going to be around for a while. Even if his range shortens enough in a few years to where he becomes a defensive liability, an American League team like the Yanks or Red Sox would sell their soul to have a DH like Chipper.

Throw in a clean bill of health on the steriods issue, being an all around decent dude, and you have a sure Hall-of-Famer. Case closed.

Paul--

That's the argument that's already being made. Chris said this about his defense: "Chipper’s defense has been below average exactly twice in his thirteen-year career. He’s averaged about +4 defensive runs per season. For his career, he’s about 50 runs above average defensively."

And this about his overall play: "Chipper isn’t just good, and he isn’t just great. Chipper is an all-time great RIGHT NOW."

You sound kind of angry while making the same argument that Chris does.

Paul at 3:27

Regarding your comment of "Almost nobody comes in on a bunt/infield ball and barehands it better than Chipper"...for how many third basemen could you say that for? Although your point may be that Chipper does that very well, so do many other third basemen.

Also, as for the Red Sox selling their sould for a DH like Chipper, they already did...and his name is David Ortiz.

Speaking of Ortiz, this discussion reminds me of all the criticism poor Ortiz receives for his defense. Why is it that, whenever people talk about how Ortiz should be penalized in value for being a DH, they just assume that he would be the worst fielding first baseman in the game? Looks to me like both Chipper and Ortiz suffer from a long term stigma.

UZR, 2003-2007:
Ortiz: -7 runs, 124 "games"

Per 162 games, the leaders are Minky (+14) and Erstad (+13). At the bottom of the pile is Ryan Garko (-12), Giambi (-11). Ortiz is -9.

The last time he appeared on a fan ballot (click on my name), Boston fans weren't impressed with him at all. We can safely say that he'd be very close to the bottom.

Yeah Chipper is awsome. first time ive been to this site, and i like it. come check me out at www.baseballproonline.com

Chipper deserved a GG last year about as much as David Wright did. I'll just leave it at that. :-)

For those of you worried about Chipper's low rankings on some defensive metrics, I suggest you check out Vinny Castilla's numbers on the same metrics while with the Braves. You'll find that they're significantly lower than his numbers elsewhere. Castilla rated well before he came to Atlanta and after he came to Atlanta, but while he was with the Braves? Nope!

For whatever reason, Braves 3B have just never done well by some defensive metrics, and that's why Chipper has the reputation as a bad glove man.

My opinion mirrors this:
"Defensively? Not the range of some others, but has VERY good hands. Almost nobody comes in on a bunt/infield ball and barehands it better than Chipper -- watch the tape."

At the least, his defense should in now way be an obstacle to his getting into the HoF.

I would go as far as to say that even with Ryan Braun-esque defense, Chipper would belong in the HOF on the strength of his offensive numbers.

The thing that kills Chipper in this comparison is that agewise, by the time chipper came up, Griffey had already hit 87 homers and put up all the other numbers too.

Even with the late start tho he played pretty damn regularly except for the last 4 years. And even in them he played more than griffey did in his worst injury seasons.

If the braves had brought him up at 21, and god knows why not, I ain't gonna go look at who the hell the braves had at 3b in 1993, Chip would probably be sitting on 2500 hits and 450 homers.

Although the 'good pitchers mean fewer chances' is pure smoke and mirrors that I see trotted out every couple of years for someone.

It ranks right up there with the 'fewer chances cuz he's playing next to a REALLY good fielder' argument they tried to use to prove Larry Bowa was a good fielder.

To Shthar,
Chipper's late start was due to blowing out his knee in a spring training game in 1994(Which should have been his rookie season). He was callled up in late 93 but saw limited playing time. Oh and the Braves 3B in the early 90's was '91 NL MVP Terry Pendleton, don't know if that would have made in difference though because I am pretty sure he was a shortstop prior to his knee injuryin '94.

Chipper was going to play left field in '93, replacing Ron Gant (who had gotten hurt falling off a dirt bike and been released). Jeff Blauser was the shortstop then, and 1993 turned out to be his best year. By all accounts, the Braves never considered Chipper a good enough shortstop, though he filled in there on a couple of occasions, pretty well.

Jeff Blauser!

How old do I have to be that I remember him as a rookie SS?

Worst article on baseballanalysts.com ever? I mean really, you compare two guys at different positions based on one defensive metric with no real in depth disclosure of what his value was for any individual year. I don't know, that's my first reaction reading this post. Defensive metrics simply are not consistent enough to make strong statements.

That said, when Chipper Jones is healthy and locked in, he is absolutely great. The problem is that he is a streaky hitter, in a good way, but that he is injured so often he doesn't stay in a groove. There is a good reason he hasn't been in the All Star game for the last 7 years. For the same reason, its hard to call him great anymore. He is when on the field and his per 162 game average might be right on track, but his counting stats (runs, hrs, rbis) and overall value is fairly reduced by people through his inability to stay on the field.

All said, he I don't think he is under rated or overrated, he is just--- properly rated by idiots like Steve Phillips and by stat heads. He is a top 5 offensive 3rd baseman of the past 20 years. Maybe even top 3. He plays somewhere between terrible and awesome defense at 3rd and he has missed over 20 games each of the last 4 seasons.