WTNYJanuary 26, 2007
2007 WTNY Prospect Mailbag
By Bryan Smith

Baseball prospects are far from sure bets, products of attrition that disappoint far too often. However, that does not stop the collective hope of fan bases, who watch and read about these players and project an organizational up-tick because of them.

In writing my annual prospect list from SI.com, I received nearly one hundred e-mails, evidence of this on a fantastic scale. The information age has brought people closer to prospects than ever, and now, the valuation of top prospects seems to be at an all-time high. Over the course of today (Friday), I will go through questions posed to me in the comments section of Tuesday's post and via e-mail, answering as many as possible. Also, if more questions arise from people, drop them in the comments section here, and we'll get to them as well. Here's a refresher course on each of the series of articles:

Honorable Mentions
Prospects 75-61
Prospects 60-46
Prospects 45-31
Prospects 30-16
Final 15 Prospects

If you need catching up, I'm Bryan Smith, co-founder and former writer on this site. I wrote my annual prospect list at SI.com, but gained permission from the site to run the final installment at Baseball Analysts on Tuesday. Rich has been gracious enough to allow to finish today, creating a mailbag that has annually accompanied this feature. Enjoy!

How would you "tier" this list? Where are the drop-offs from "uber-prospect" to "really really good prospect" to "really good prospect"?

If you need reminder of the list, click here, and scroll towards the bottom of that page. To answer this question, I can say that the minor leagues has four uber prospects. The top four players are absolutely fantastic prospects, and my confidence in their future success is very high. Delmon Young was #1 on this list a year ago, but is #2 now, despite being closer to the Major Leagues. Those four represent the utmost tier of the list.

After that, the next tier is probably a big one, something like 5 (Brandon Wood) to 27 (Mike Pelfrey). Ranking of some players within that tier is pretty obvious, but nonetheless, these players project as future All-Stars, but all of whom do worry me in some sense. Whether it is Brandon Wood's strikeouts, Andrew Miller's control or Tim Lincecum's health, something is holding these players back right now. After this, tiering becomes more difficult, but eye-balling it, the last few tiers would go something like 28-45, 46-62, and 63 to eightysomething. Each tier is made up of many like prospects, and each prospect has a pretty glaring weakness.

Would you say this is a strong prospect list compared to '06, '05, '04? It seems there's a lot of talent. I'm only asking because I feel the tops of those years--Felix, the '05 Young, Mauer, and maybe B.J. Upton at one point--were all "better" prospects than Gordon. Am I wrong?

In my honorable mention article at SI.com, I noted that the minor leagues seem to have more talent than ever. I really do attribute this to the gains made in utilizing information, combining statistics and scouting reports to draft most effectively. While dogmatic organizations tend to be at the back of farm system rankings, those who can look at all the information make this the deepest list I have ever written.

I wrote above that there were only four uberprospects, but when can you remember there were four prospects as good as these four at once?

Also, it was very difficult for me to not rank some of those within honorable mention in my top 75. I had comments written out for guys like Jeremy Jeffress and Eric Campbell, but ultimately, depth pushed them out. If I'm bored in the future, I could probably come up with another 50 names that just missed making the honorable mention. There has not been a more fun time to evaluate prospects in the history of baseball, I say.

How good of an indicator do you feel this list is in relation to a team's overall farm system strength? In other words, how worried should an organization be if it has poor or minimal representation on the list?

Not especially worried, I would say. Top-heavy prospects are important for farm system strength, but they are one component - teams need star power prospects, depth in prospects, and must have graduated prospects recently to get high grades from me. By looking at the number of players in my top 100, that only tells you about how many top-heavy players each team has.

Nonetheless, organizations with two players or less in the top 100 do represent some of the worst farm systems in the game: Washington, San Diego, Toronto, etc. These teams have a long ways to go - the Padres and Blue Jays must start being better in the Major League draft. I think Washington isn't far from having a good farm system again, as the 2006 draft has good potential and the organization now teams together Dana Brown with the superbly talented Mike Rizzo.

If you want to get a good idea of farm system strength, try and pool together my top 100 list with some team-by-team top 10 rankings at Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. If you can get a feel for the depth in each top 10 -- a club like the Cardinals has good depth despite not being top-heavy at all -- then your organization is fine.

Where would the Japanese rookies - Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura, Kei Igawa - rank on your list?

An inevitable question, as I am usually pretty stubborn by not allowing these guys entrance into my list. It stems from respect for the leagues in Japan, as they do a far better job of preparing these players for the Major Leagues than AAA could.

Matsuzaka is the easiest ranking, as his game is so complete. I think his fastball and slider combination will be among the top in the Major Leagues, and he will be all the more devastating by showing another 3-4 pitches to batters to keep them off balance. He has a history of pitching in big games, and his control has improved heavily in the last three seasons. Matsuzaka is ready for the Major Leagues, and the Red Sox landed the right-hander at a good price. With three years of an ERA around 3.50 (or less) coming, Matsuzaka would rank third on this list.

Next, rather unusually, I have Igawa. Most rank Iwamura next, but I really think Igawa can be a good Major League starter as well. Problem with Igawa is that in his scouting profile, I see shades of Barry Zito, shades of Ted Lilly, and shades of Kaz Ishii. But, it's not really useful to claim a player to be between a Cy Young pitcher and a replacement-level one, so I'm guessing he can be Lilly-esque. Igawa combines a low 90s fastball with a slow, deadline overhand curve, and mixes in a usable slider and average change. The key for him, and what proved to be Ishii's downfall, will be maximizing his fastball control in the Major Leagues. If he can set up batters for the curve effectively, Igawa could save the Yanks a lot of money on what Barry Zito would have given them. I will say Igawa would be unofficially 46 on my list, between Jeff Niemann and Chuck Lofgren.

Iwamura, the Devil Rays versatile infielder, is most worrisome to me. He brings over very good power from Japan, and the isolated slugging percentage numbers translated at a place like Baseball Prospectus seem about right to me. However, I can't get over Iwamura's strikeout numbers - no Japan player has traveled across the Pacific with those numbers. It will be extremely hard for Iwamura to hit .280 is he whiffs in 25% of his plate appearances, which I think could happen. And furthermore, since most Japan players walk less in the Major Leagues, I don't think he will walk enough to support his drop in batting average. I am not high on Iwamura at all, who would not surprise me if he turned out to be no better than Pedro Feliz. Iwamura would be in my honorable mention.

How can you rank Homer Bailey ahead of Phillip Hughes. Looking at their statistics side by side, Hughes' numbers are better in every respect. And if you say that it's the stuff that defines the greater prospect, the difference in stuff between Hughes and Bailey is minimal with Bailey having slightly more velocity although Hughes has a heavier ball. Further, if it is stuff that defines the prospect than I'm certain you can find a myriad of prospects who have the same stuff as Bailey and Hughes. The key than must be the marriage between stuff and control that translates into success and therefore the better prospect. Isn't that the embodiment of Phillip Hughes? The remarkable maturity (pitching knowledge), super stuff, and superior control all combine to create one of the best pitching prospects we've ever seen. The part of that equation that Homer Bailey holds is super stuff and improving control. Taking into account the previous argument, you can only conclude that Phillip Hughes is indeed the better pitching prospect.

By a power of about eight million, this type of question (dealing with these two prospects) was the most popular I received, speaking to the fabulous intensity of Yankee fans. Still, its funny, because the difference between the two players is totally negligible. Both prospects are generational, both are top tier, and both project as aces in the Major Leagues (the only two in the minors). So, I don't really think the individual ranking is important, but I will do Bailey the hnor of defending him, since he was ultimately my choice.

As far as "stuff" goes, I disagree with the question, I don't think you can find other stuff like Bailey's or Hughes' in the minor leagues. Someone like Jason Neighborgall might have impressive raw stuff, but it doesn't compare to these two players, as he has no idea where it is going. Say what you will about Homer Bailey's command, but it hardly had an adverse effect on his performance in 2006. In the end, I decided to label the Reds prospect with the minors best stuff, and I again, I disagree with the e-mail about how he labels their fastballs. I would not say that Hughes has more life than Bailey, but instead more sink, as Bailey's exploding four-seamer has plenty of life. I love Hughes' two-seamer, however, so the fastball difference is about as negligible as their overall ranking.

But, again, why Bailey? What overcomes Hughes' edge in command? Two things: breaking ball and health. Now, let me remind, I'm not claiming Hughes is poor in either category at all. His curveball is fantastic, but my reports of Bailey's hook were phenomenal. The pitch might be a 75 on the 20-80 scouting scale soon, and it should generate a lot of swings-and-misses at the Major League level. While Hughes is long removed from past shoulder soreness, he is still more susceptible for future injury than Bailey.

Now listen: I believe Philip Hughes will not only pitch in the Majors in 2007, but I believe he'll start admirably in the playoffs. I believe he will anchor the Yanks' rotation for years to come. And I also believe the same for Homer Bailey's, who has enough star power to reinvigorate the city of Cincinnati.

If Franklin Morales can improve his control w/o altering his delivery, or, at least, with minimal impact to his delivery, do you think he could be considered in the top 25-30 range? His "stuff" is pretty filthy when he's on target.

This will be the key for Morales. I place this question deliberately after the Bailey/Hughes one for a reason, in the previous ranking, I allude to a ideological belief I have in prospects that Morales reinforces: command can be taught, raw stuff cannot. Pitching coaches are very important aspects to baseball, and their effect on teaching young players command has been seen again and again. Very often, I have players with great stuff and iffy command ranked pretty high, because I do believe in the power of a pitching coach. Morales is a player whose raw stuff is among the ten best pitching prospects in the game, but he is going to have to make the most out of Spring Training, the AA pitching coach and the Rockies' roving pitching instructor. Still, Morales can probably be successful even with only minor improvements in control, as I documented in his player comment at SI.com that he will improve in 2007 merely be leaving the California League's hot sun.

To what extent do you take defense (both a player's individual ability based on scouting or available metrics, and the position they play on the defensive spectrum) into consideration when ranking position players?

As heavily as possible. After all, evaluating minor leaguers is all about tools, and defense encapsulates two of the six (five plus patience) tools that I use. So, reports about a player's range and his arm are of superb important to me. Also, as this question alludes, the defensive spectrum has a large impact on rankings, as you can see in some of the spots on my list.

One e-mail asked me about why I chose Tulowitzki as a better prospect than Longoria. After all, the latter probably has better power skills, and overall, is probably the better future hitter. But the difference between these two players on the list represents how much I weigh defense into rankings. Tulo had a head start because he plays shortstop, and he also plays it well. Longoria is a solid-average fielder, but Tulo has good range and a great arm. Up the middle.

I think the hardest position to consider defense effectively is the catching position. Offensive catchers are the dream of every Major League General Manager, but there are rarely very many in the game at once. They are extremely rare. The reason for this is because many offensive minor league catchers (I'm looking at you, Josh Phelps) don't make it in the Major Leagues because of defense. While Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Neil Walker both were helped by their position, and its relative ranking on the defensive spectrum, it is still very hard to know if they will play good enough defense to enter the Offensive Catcher fraternity.

Hopefully this answered the question.

How much do off-field and or personal issues(i.e. Elijah Dukes' recent/consistent transgressions) weigh in the rankings? Is there a red flag, so to speak, when it only is considered if applicable?

I don't think that I weigh make-up as high as other evaluators, or those within the game. Certainly it is an important part of becoming a star, but I think it is so hard to quantify, it is almost not worth doing. Delmon Young did not drop in my rankings because of the bat-throwing incident, or concerns about his anger. Instead, he dropped because he hasn't shown consistent patience in the minor leagues.

Elijah Dukes did drop because of his make-up, and because his anger continually effects his on-field play. But Dukes fantastic ability keeps him in the top 40. Ultimately, I could not drop him any more, because we simply do not know the effect a promotion to the Majors will have on him. Just as easily as his anger could destroy him (which sounds like a line from Star Wars ... Elijah Dukes as Anakin Skywalker?), he could also get a chip on his shoulder and become a superstar. Since we have no way of knowing this, guessing and ending up wrong seems foolish.

In the end, I won't remember 2006 as the season in which the Devil Rays cut Dukes season short because of his antics, I'll remember him taking Chuck James' fastball 500 feet out of the Durham ballpark, over the blue monster in left field. Talent speaks to me more than anger.

Mad lib: I agonized the most over the ranking of: the three 18-year-old star prospects. Fernando Martinez, Jose Tabata and Elvis Andrus are all extremely unique prospects, like Felix Hernandez was at one time. All of them have the talent to rise to the top of my list one day, but each is so likely to bust out at some point. These players, high on star power and attrition, are always the hardest to rank. With these three, I was changing their rankings constantly, trying to find something that worked for me. Ultimately, F-Mart's good showing in the AFL proved to me his power was real, and his good showing in that left him atop the group of three. Still, I really like Tabata, so I knew he couldn't be far behind. If he rises to my top 10 next season, don't consider me surprised. The hardest to rank of this group was Elvis Andrus, who struggled a bit offensively, as he isn't nearly as strong at these other two players. Still, Andrus could be a very good defensive shortstop and still learn to be an offensive force, a combination which should leave Braves fans drooling. These three players leave me very excited for 2007, when the projection will slowly be turning into realization for each prospect.

The Astros have a catcher that is getting high marks in their minor league system named JR Towles. He always has a high average and plays almost daily in the 3 years in the minor leagues. What have you heard about this young man? The Astros need a catcher after Ausmus leaves...could he possibly be the next in line?

I am familiar with Towles, he had a good season in Lexington, where I was able to see him play during the summer. In person, Towles has one glaring need: time in the weight room. Very skinny, Towles power and health would be much improved with some added strength. He showed some good, yet crude, defense behind the plate: memorably, he threw one ball to the right field wall after attempting to throw behind a baserunner at first base. It was a good, aggressive move that displayed plus arm strength, but it also reinforced complaints about his raw ability. Towles largest positive is good plate coverage, he's a natural hitter with a propensity for contact. This bodes well for his future, as his weaknesses are more easily rectified than problems with his bat. Towles didn't get much consideration for this list, but the Astros are high on him, despite drafting Max Sapp in the first round. As far as replacing Ausmus goes, he very well could, but I don't see Towles becoming Major League ready until at least 2009.

Adam Jones was 19 on your mid-season list...the drop from 19 to 25 isn't all that significant I realize, but did he do anything to drop his stock in the last months of the season? He appeared to take a big jump forward from June-on in Triple-A, but struggled in the majors. If he continues what he did from June-on in the minor leagues, do you see him as a potential top-10 guy next year (assuming no callup)?

Jones drop is not significant at all. He was passed by the best 2006 draftees, as well as the year's best breakout players. I still think very highly of Jones, and my position on his future is unchanged since midseason. However, his Major League trial should create a little cause for concern about his ability to hit a breaking ball. With a decent amount of ML at-bats, the next time Jones reaches the Majors, every team will have a scouting report on him. The Mariners, an organization that shows little patience with prospects, will need to make sure that Jones has mastered the pitching he sees in the PCL before promoting him again. Also, while I remain high on Jones' defense, I was a bit disheartened to read Dave Cameron's lackluster reviews of it at USS Mariner. In compiling the Best Tools of AAA for Baseball America, managers raved to me about Jones defense, so I do think he will be above-average in the Major Leagues. Jones could probably get to 10-15 before his call-up next year, but that's probably where his "rank ceiling" is.

Probably too far in the future, but how about Angel Villalona?

Certainly what I have read about Villalona thus far is intriguing, and it sounds like he should finally give the Giants a star position player prospect. It has been a long time. The reason I didn't rank him yet is two reasons: he has not played in a game yet, and I just don't know enough about him. Baseball America does such a wonderful job bringing these players to the public, but ranking Villalona solely on what I read in BA would be dishonest. For now, I'm willing to wait to see his power in a minor league, and then try and talk to someone who say him before I give him a good ranking. Still, he's probably somewhere 101-125, which for a 16-year-old is pretty remarkable. Kudos to BA for reporting this information so well, and look out for some teenage power in the Arizona Summer League (presumably) next summer.

Last year you had Jon Lester ranked #14. He will probably start the year in the minors for the Red Sox while he rebuilds his strength after recuperating from kicking cancer's butt. If he still qualified for your list, what would he rank this year?

Impossible to say. I am so excited Lester is going to be on the mound in 2007 -- he's a hero -- it speaks to his character as a prospect. We have no idea how much weight or strength loss Lester sustained during cancer, but he's a workhorse, and I don't doubt it will all come back. This is such an uplifting story that it trumps prospect rankings. Lester is a player that everyone, including Yankees fans, should be rooting for. A goal of mine for 2007 is to see him pitch somewhere, and I know that I will wear a Lester jersey into Fenway Park before his career is done.

You have T.Snider ranked 1 spot ahead of A.Lind. What pushed Snider ahead in your eyes?

They are neck and neck. Lind is a favorite prospect of mine, a breakout player I targeted last year whose pure bat proved to have some big power in it. I also am a big Snider fan, the make-up you have heard about in the past came across so well through an interview. These guys are both really good prospects, but I do think Snider could just be more of an offensive force in the Major Leagues. I likened Lind's offensive profile to Carlos Lee, but I think Snider can be above that, even if his size does worry me a bit. Another factor, which we shouldn't overlook, is that Snider will probably reach the Major Leagues at the age of 21 or 22, long before the age Lind will be during his 2007 rookie season.

Keep your minor league questions coming in the comments section of this post, and I will try to answer as many as I can in the next few days. Thanks!

WTNYJanuary 23, 2007
The 2007 WTNY Prospect List
By Bryan Smith

There is no greater season for a prospect evaluator than the winter, as we finally bear down, combine all the evidence and take our stances. For the fourth winter in a row, I have compiled a list of the minor league's 75 best talents -- Major League Baseball's future stars. This winter, I was lucky enough to have SportsIllustrated.com invite me to post my list at their site. This was a fantastic opportunity at heightened exposure as well as the ability to have my wordiness edited by Jake Luft. Over the last week I have written six installments, the last of which is also produced below. The other five pieces at SI:

Honorable Mentions
Prospects 75-61
Prospects 60-46
Prospects 45-31
Prospects 30-16

With the allowance of Luft and SI.com, I have opted to simultaneously post the final edition of my list at Baseball Analysts. I have much nostalgia built into this site and its readers, so I wanted to post my prospect list in this forum again.

Finally, Rich has allowed me to come back to Analysts this Friday as well, as I wanted to compile a mailbag of the questions I receive during the presentation of this list. So, if you have any burning prospect-related questions, leave them in the comments below or e-mail me and I will pick as many as I can to answer Friday. Thanks, as always, for reading.

Bryan Smith's Top 75 Prospects in 2007
For the purposes of this list, a prospect is a player who played predominantly in the minor leagues last season or was drafted in the 2006 June draft. A player loses eligibility for this list once he surpasses 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats in the major leagues. Japanese imports Daisuke Matsuzaka, Akinori Iwamura and Kei Igawa were not considered due to lengthy experience overseas. Players are judged based on what scouting and statistical reports claim on their potential. Each prospect is presented below with his 2007 baseball age and 2006 statistics.

15. Jay Bruce, 20, RF, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (Class A-): .291/.355/.516, 19 SB in 444 AB

Bruce had a historic season for a teen-ager in the Midwest League, showing left-handed power unrivaled for a player of his maturity. Like so many young left-handed hitters, Bruce has work to do with southpaws, striking out in 30 percent of his at-bats against them in 2006. This is not what scares me. What does is the context within Bruce's numbers and the similarities they bear to Brian Dopirak's legendary Midwest League season in 2004. That year Dopirak became wildly hyped in prospect circles, but I made note of a 27-game stretch during the summer in which he was a decidedly better player than the rest of the season, which is the same thing that happened to Bruce in 2006. In 33 games between June 4 and July 10, Bruce was amazing, hitting .427 and clubbing 24 extra-base hits. The rest of the season? A paltry .238 batting average. However, his power did remain consistent throughout the season, so I am now cautiously confident in Bruce's future.

14. Andrew McCutchen, 20, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
2006 Stats (A-/AA): .294/.359/.450, 23 SB in 531 AB

Speed is the name of McCutchen's game, as his quickness with his legs and bat leave the Pirates thinking big with their future center fielder. Generously listed at 170 pounds, McCutchen relies on ridiculous bat speed to hit for plus power. His power was restrained much of the season by the spacious dimensions at his home park; he slugged .536 on the road in Low-A. With quickness unrivaled for players with his power, McCutchen also profiles to steal 30 bases and win Gold Gloves down the road. Raw in both areas, McCutchen could stand at least another season and a half in the minor leagues, but his late-season success at AA might have pushed his timetable forward significantly.

13. Tim Lincecum, 23, RHP, San Francisco Giants
2006 Stats (SS/A+): 1.71 ERA, 14H/31.2IP, 58K/12BB

In modern college baseball history, no pitcher has been as dominant in a single season as Jered Weaver was in 2004. In his final year at Long Beach State, Weaver posted a 1.63 ERA and struck out 213 batters while scouts nitpicked his game. In 2006, Weaver received his vindication for his overshadowed Golden Spikes season, dominating the Majors as a rookie. There are numerous similarities between Weaver and Lincecum, who had a 1.99 ERA and 199 strikeouts as a junior at Washington. Lincecum has better stuff than Weaver, touching the high-90s with his fastball while featuring a hammer curveball, but his height (he's about 6-feet tall) led to a drop to the 10th overall selection in the 2006 draft. Lincecum's largest pitfall could be the combination of his violent delivery and extreme workload. The Giants will work hard at managing both in 2007, preparing Lincecum to contribute in the majors by 2008.

12. Andrew Miller, 22, LHP, Detroit Tigers
2006 Stats (A+): 0.00 ERA, 2H/5IP, 9K/1BB

The first player from the 2006 draft to reach the majors, Miller was also the best the draft had to offer. Since opting for North Carolina instead of the Devil Rays out of high school, Miller had long been marked as the player-to-top in his class. Miller won Baseball America's College Player of the Year award with a marvelous junior season. Extremely projectable at a lanky 6-foot-6, Miller's four-seam fastball is already 94-97 mph. As a starter, his bread and butter is a sinking two-seam fastball and a slider that few left-handed hitters can touch. A September call-up showed the Tigers how dominant Miller profiles to be, but also how raw his delivery and command still are; he struck out six batters and walked 10 in 10 1/3 innings with Detroit. Miller will likely begin in Double-A Erie next season and could be pushing for a major-league roster spot again late in the season.

11. Troy Tulowitzki, 22, SS, Colorado Rockies
2006 Stats (AA): .291/.370/.473, 6 SB in 423 AB

Incumbent Clint Barmes struggled in 2006, which means there is nothing holding Tulowitzki back from playing every day in Coors Field. Tulowitzki is a gifted contact hitter who sprays the ball all over the field with gap power. It isn't a stretch to project him as a perennial .300 hitter who bangs out 40 doubles annually. He also has a power stroke that should produce 10 to 20 home runs a season. In the field, he is mistake-prone but shows good range and a cannon arm from the hole. Despite struggling with Colorado in September, Tulowitzki proved in the Arizona Fall League that he's ready for The Show.

10. Adam Miller, 22, RHP, Cleveland Indians
2006 Stats (AA): 2.84 ERA, 133H/158.1IP, 161K/46BB

Miller has gone under a distinct maturation in the minors, the type separating "pitchers" like Jake Peavy from "throwers" like Kerry Wood. Formerly known as "Mr. 101" stemming from a late-season velocity reading before an arm injury in 2004, Miller has since backpedaled his approach and trusted his stuff. These days, Miller focuses on keeping his darting two-seamer down in the zone (resulting in a 1.59 G/F ratio in AA) and striking out hitters with his plus-plus slider. Miller's maturation is still a work in progress. That was evident in 2006 as he allowed seven home runs in his first 10 starts. However, the right-hander limited opponents to a mere two home runs the rest of the season thanks largely to an improved command of his slider.

9. Billy Butler, 21, LF, Kansas City Royals
2006 Stats (AA): .331/.388/.499, 1 SB in 477 AB

Butler played in an unfriendly hitting environment (Wichita) in 2006. At home during the season, Butler hit just one home run compared to 14 while on the road. The latter number more accurately details Butler's huge power potential. Butler's combination of contact and power skills are fantastic, and his late-season performance indicates he could be even better next year. Between June 1 and his exit to play for Team USA, Butler batted .354 while striking out just 33 times. Butler creates an adventure with every fly ball in left field, but his defensive shortcomings will be forgotten if he can provide protection for Alex Gordon in the Royals' lineup.

8. Cameron Maybin, 20, CF, Detroit Tigers
2006 Stats (A-): .304/.387/.457, 27 SB in 385 AB

Maybin lived up to all the hype in his first pro season. He might not be the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr., but Maybin has a generational five-tool set. Many have pointed to Maybin's .408 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and called his season overrated, but I don't believe this is true. Maybin has the same kind combination of speed and line-drive ability that allows Ichiro to post high BABIPs every season, albeit not quite as high as .408. While his numbers could come down a bit with worse luck in 2007, it also could be pointed out his numbers took a hit by an early return from a thumb injury. Maybin struggled horribly in his first 15 games coming off the DL, hitting just 12-for-56 without much power. With a healthy season, I think Maybin could improve on his 2006 numbers in the Florida State League; the speedy center fielder has greater power than he showed in the tough Midwest League.

7. Justin Upton, 19, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 Stats (A-): .263/.343/.413, 15 SB in 438 AB

Like his brother, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton is an extremely divisive prospect as people struggle to understand why his output has not matched his talent. The latter was obvious for four years of high school, and nationally on display in spring training when Upton looked fantastic against the Chicago White Sox on WGN. Upton has a mature body with extremely long legs, which combined with his speed give him fantastic home-to-first times. Upton draws deserved comparisons to Alfonso Soriano, who has a similarly long, controlled and powerful swing. Most people have questioned Upton's makeup due to his poor season, but the concerns are overdone; expectations were just too high for the 2005 draft's top pick. Upton might not be as major-league ready as we thought last March, but his All-Star ceiling should not be altered because of an average debut.

6. Chris Young, 23, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 Stats (AAA): .276/.363/.532, 17 SB in 402 AB

While the exit of fan favorite Luis Gonzalez provides a public relations hit to Arizona in 2007, the entrance of Young should quickly make D-Backs fans forget their former hero. This will be most evident defensively, as Arizona adds Young's fabulous range in center, pushing Eric Byrnes to left field and surely saving the pitching staff many runs. Offensively, Young should be at least on par with Gonzalez next season, if not better. Young has the chance to be a 25 homer/25 steals threat as a rookie and is the odds-on favorite to capture National League Rookie of the Year honors. Young began making better contact last season as well, but his batting average didn't go up, the product of bad luck against southpaws. His BABIP was .100 points worse against left-handers, and when that number improves, Young could threaten to break the .300 barrier for his first time as a pro.

5. Brandon Wood, 22, SS, Los Angeles Angels
2006 Stats (AA): .276/.355/.552, 19 SB in 453 AB

After a breakout season of epic proportions in the hitter-friendly California League in 2005, Wood entered last year with a considerable amount of pressure. Was it a fluke? Can his offensive approach continue to produce big results? Will his power sustain at higher levels? What Wood proved in 2006 was that he was indeed a top prospect, showing substantial power throughout the season. Wood is going to suffer through a lot of variance in his numbers because of his high strikeout rate, but his ability to hit the ball out of any park offsets concerns about his swing-and-miss tendencies. By walking more often last season, Wood became a more valuable prospect, making a potential move to the hot corner far less daunting. Expect Wood to push the Angels to a decision on whether to call him up in 2007 as Salt Lake's altitude should lend to Wood's 100th minor-league home run by midseason.

4. Philip Hughes, 21, RHP, New York Yankees
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.16 ERA, 92H/146IP, 168K/34BB

If Roger Clemens does not return to the Bronx in 2007, Hughes will be the hot-button issue in New York come June. By then, Hughes will be dominating AAA with every outing. The Yankees have done a fabulous job preparing Hughes for his midseason call-up, slowly increasing his workload in the minor leagues. With 146 innings last year, Hughes should be able to pitch consistently through October, by which time he might already be the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Far more impressive than Hughes' heavy sinker or jaw-dropping curveball is his understanding of pitching; he is the most intelligent phenom in recent memory. Hughes does not give in to any bat, rarely allows free trips to first base, and gets groundballs consistently from the stretch. Hughes is as good as a New York pitching prospect has been in a long time.

3. Homer Bailey, 21, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2006 Stats (A+/AA): 2.47 ERA, 99H/138.2IP, 156K/50BB

A year ago, things did not add up with Homer Bailey. The prep star's full season debut began in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League, where he allowed a 7.73 H/9, struck out 125 batters and allowed just five home runs in just over 100 innings. However, his ERA was 4.43. The reason? Sixty-two walks, indicating poor command that Bailey had not shown as a high schooler. The anomalies I saw straightened themselves out in 2006, when Bailey became the game's best pitching prospect. The electricity of Bailey's stuff -- the life of his fastball and break on his curve -- are fantastic, and Bailey already attacks hitters like a veteran. In 2005, Bailey walked fewer than two batters just six times. In 2006, he raised the number to nine starts. If he can make a 50 percent improvement on that number again next season, Bailey will finish the year in Cincinnati.

2. Delmon Young, 21, RF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2006 Stats (AAA): .316/.341/.474, 22 SB in 342 AB

I wanted Young to be my top prospect this season. He held that role a year ago and I have long predicted his future superstardom. My views on Young's future are unchanged heading into this season, but Young was downgraded to the No. 2 spot on this list because of one negative trait: patience. Young does not have great makeup (see: bat toss at umpire), but he would hardly be the first superstar to combine success with anger. What I can't overlook is Young's allergy to drawing walks, as he has just 20 since a mid-July promotion to AAA in 2005. Young must walk more in the majors to reach his full potential, but his power, hand-eye coordination, speed and throwing arm will make him an All-Star regardless.

1. Alex Gordon, 23, 3b, Kansas City Royals
2006 Stats (AA): .325/.427/.588, 22 SB in 486 AB

Gordon is the ultimate hitting prospect. A left-handed hitter with a gorgeous swing, the 2005 Golden Spikes award winner made the transition to wooden bats look easy. He thrived in the Texas League, becoming a potential savior in the eyes of Royals fans. Unlike Butler, Wichita's pitcher-friendly tendencies did not faze Gordon, who hit 19 home runs in the seasons' final 60 games. This did correspond with a rise in strikeouts (63 over that span), but the Royals do not question Gordon's ability to hit for average. Also an intelligent player, Gordon understands the value of a walk and also is fantastic at picking out the right times to steal a base. The Royals expect him to hit and hit quickly as a rookie in 2007.

The rest of my top 75 prospect list is in order after the jump, and remember to leave your questions for the mailbag on Friday.


WTNYAugust 29, 2006
By Bryan Smith

Dear loyal readers,

Today, I'm sad to say, will be my last post as co-writer at Baseball Analysts.

18 months ago - hard to believe, isn't it? - Rich and I moved from All-Baseball.com to this venue, in hopes of creating an eclectic site to provide daily, lengthy baseball analysis. It's been a fantastic year and a half, and our creation has had more success than either of us could have hoped for.

Personally, today represents another left turn in my own winding Internet road, a journey spanning four years and multiple URLs. I deeply appreciate each reader who has stuck with me through it all, as you are the reasons I have had opportunities for publications I deeply admire and respect. Without you, I never would have had bylines at Baseball Prospectus, SI.com or Baseball America.

Once upon a time, I had the energy to write five long posts a week, the time to throw myself into minor league baseball research constantly. When such a schedule became too daunting, I was lucky enough to find Rich, whose partnership allowed me to decrease my workload to three times a week. Unfortunately, for personal reasons, I am no longer able to commit to such a schedule, and in fairness to Rich, I could not ask to remain on this site's masthead.

So instead, Rich and I have decided it's best for me to turn my key in, and going forward, he will have full control of this site. I'll be making guest appearances, now and again, and will also be freelancing some work all around the Internet. After years of attempting to live by strict writing schedules, I have reached a point in which I must step back.

I have not lost the itch to write or the itch to follow baseball, this I can assure you. I will remain knee-deep in minor league analysis, and will try to write as often as possible. I'll still be making a prospect list, and this January, I'll again attempt to find prospects that will break out next season. I have some plans for writing before then, and I don't doubt you'll be seeing my byline plenty going forward.

As the cliche goes, it's not goodbye, it's see you later. For those looking to get in contact with me going forward, please do not hesitate to e-mail me at bsmithwtny AT yahoo.com. I want to finish today thanking Rich Lederer, who has been a fantastic partner during our run and will undoubtedly continue to be a wonderful friend going forward.

Take care, Bryan Smith.

WTNYAugust 15, 2006
NL Rookie Countdown
By Bryan Smith

Major League Baseball should be amped up for a huge September, a month promising as much drama as any year in recent memory. The American League seems as deep as ever, with some heated battles for the AL Wild Card, and a less exciting race in the AL West. In the National League, all teams are all fighting for spots behind the Mets.

In some ways, more intriguing than the races this September will be to see which rookie jumps forward with a big season's end. Perhaps the deepest rookie crop in history, there has been evidence of a Major League youth movement all over the Majors - from Miami to Los Angeles.

With the year counting down, and September about to crown a champion, I wanted to give a primer of each league's Rookie of the Year race before anyone separates himself. We start today with the National League, and my countdown of the best NL rookies of 2006 ...

10. Cole Hamels

Where He Was Last Year: My #49 prospect entering the season, Hamels' injury-riddled 2005 saw questions begin to crop up about his health problems. Hamels hadn't stayed off the DL for a long period of time since high school, and even his own frustrations were beginning to show - an early season bar-fight accident angered the organization. Still, when on the mound, Hamels showed potential of what he had in his first minor league season. The makings of a big ceiling were there, but so was a lot of risk.

How He Is This Year: Hamels began the season on time, and flew through the minor leagues when no stop posed a problem. Glorified on the internet, Hamels was not an instant success, but has performed admirably (4.50 ERA) in his rookie season. I love his peripheral numbers - which include 74 hits and 96 strikeouts in 84 innings - and Hamels has the ability to dominate that few players do at his age. He won't be winning any trophies this season, but Hamels is a good long-term bet to become an ace.

9. Takashi Saito

Where He Was Last Year: Not on American soil. Saito, 36, came over from Japan in the winter, when the top 1992 draft pick enjoyed a lackluster career. Saito had a big season in 2001, when he posted a 1.67 ERA, but the hinges appeared to come off after a bad 2004. Saito's signing took quite a bit of foresight from a scouting department emerging as baseball's best.

Where He Is This Year: With Gagne hurt, Saito has been fantastic in the late-inning role. An unsung hero from the most recent Sunday night win, Saito looked fantastic in his one inning of relief. As would be no surprise for a Japanese pitcher, Saito is best when throwing his breaking ball for strikes in fastball counts. Saito has had a good year, but remember, voters have an anti-aging bias when it comes to "rookies."

8. Scott Olsen

Where He Was Last Year: Things may have looked bad a year ago, when Olsen posted his highest ERA ever - a 3.92 showing in AA, but such was not the case. As I pointed out when ranking Olsen as the game's #20 prospect, the southpaw's rise in ERA came with large improvements in both the walk and strikeout categories. A bit 2006 was in the cards.

Where He Is This Year: Olsen hasn't been fantastic with the Marlins this season, but he's been consistently very good. The problem with Olsen, and many members of the Florida staff, will be finding a way to harness his great stuff and cut down on the walk total. While Olsen's home run mark is down again this season, he'll never turn the big corner until he learns to hit the ball where he wants.

7. Russ Martin

Where He Was Last Year: Not far removed from a conversion to behind the plate, Martin took to the position last year, following up on an awe-inspiring Spring Training. Martin ranked as my #37 prospect, and I said he had the "best plate discipline in the minor leagues." We knew then what we have now - Martin has all the makings of a very solid, very consistent Major League catcher.

Where He Is This Year: The Dodgers were cautious with much of their youth in the early season, allowing each player to start hitting the ball consistent in the Pacific Coast League. Martin was one of the first call-ups, and his presence made the team forget about Dioner Navarro's 2005 cup of coffee. With a walk-off home run on the national stage Sunday, Martin appears to be entering the upmost echelon of baseball catchers, a tier where only a few players alive currently reside.

6. Matt Cain

Where He Was Last Year: Something must have been wrong with Cain last season, who showed up in camp out of shape, and spent the season in AAA. Armed with newfound control problems, Cain was posting dangerously high walk and flyball numbers. Still, his stuff was great and his strikeout rate was high, and Cain was among my top pitching prospects, ranked as the minors' #8 prospect.

Where He Is This Year: Teams take baby steps with young bodies, and the reins are still on Cain this season. Manager Alou's grip doesn't promise to lighten until Cain can add a bit of consistency to his game. While he's flashed double-digit strikeout, no-hitter type stuff, the problem remains his HR-happy fastball, with which he must further harness control.

5. Ryan Zimmerman

where He Was Last Year: In lecture halls 16 months ago, if you can believe it. While Zimmerman's bat was considered no sure thing entering the draft, it caught on quickly, and Zimmerman began to fly through the minors. Zimmerman's defense was advertised very highly, and his package of successful indicators led me to a #12 ranking of the National on my rookie list.

Where He Is This Year: The problem with Zimmerman's bat was always in the power department - he could make contact just fine. This season his downfall, when compared to the other rookies, will be his inability to smash enough home runs to keep with the slugging percentages of the worlds Prince Fielders and Dan Ugglas. Zimmerman is a remarkable story, and you have to wonder where he would go if the 2005 draft was done all over again.

4. Dan Uggla

where He Was Last Year: ... Crickets ... The answer to this question is one that nobody knows - he wasn't that important. But exposed to the Rule 5 draft, Uggla found a perfect suitor in the Marlins, desperately looking for a Luis Castillo replacement. Uggla has been that and more in the Miami middle infield, flashing power that even his biggest supporters weren't aware of.

Where He Is This Year: While he's fallen off some since a ridiculous start to the season, Uggla still has the best numbers of any rookie middle infielder this season. Hanley Ramirez might have generated most of the early-season press -- OK, ok, well ... all of it -- but Ramirez' recent drop-off has opened the doors for Uggla to show his true colors. I would sell his stock high if I lived in Miami, but that could be a tall order depending on the market.

3. Prince Fielder

where He Was Last Year: Hitting, of course, but in the minor leagues. Since his MVP season in the Midwest League, Fielder was a threat in any league he attended. At each stop, including the PCL last season, Fielder showed power that was drawing 40-HR annually predictions. His play at first base was never lauded, but Fielder always seemed to get the better end on predictions than his father did. I was always a believer, and made him my #4 prospect.

Where He Is This Year: Fielder has been fantastic this season, putting himself in sight of 30 HR by season's end. The Brewers were simply able to trade Carlos Lee at the deadline because of Fielder's resurgence. The Brewers infield defense hasn't been good this season, but as Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall continue to make improvements, so will Fielder. Not only is he the best front-to-back rookie in the NL, he's even more of a future star than we thought.

2. Andre Ethier

where He Was Last Year: Even since Ethier starred at Arizona State, he was the profile of a 4th outfielder. Capable of playing all three outfield positions, but none of them particularly well. Capable of hitting enough for a full-time spot, but not enough power for a spot in a corner. However, last year everything seemed to click, and Ethier exctied Logan White. The Milton Bradley-for-Ethier trade looked pretty bad 1-2 months in, but now the Dodgers have managed to flip the script.

Where He Is This Year: Fantastic. Not yet eligible for the National League batting race, Ethier would now be in first place, a legitimate number. The Dodgers didn't seem to like Ethier as much as some of their homegrown options early in the season, but Ethier's wide-ranging skillset grew on the Dodgers. Now, after they found another way to acquire Maddux, the Dodgers seem committed to not move Ethier.

1. Josh Johnson

where He Was Last Year: Not ranked in my prospect list, and to be honest, Johnson wasn't particularly close. He had a good 2005 season, and some wondered if he had turned a corner, but I wasn't willing to jump on the bandwagon. Johnson's hit ratio was just too high to support a K/9 that never touched 9, and a walk ratio that was at 3.78 per nine in 2004. I didn't like Johnson.

Where He Is This Year: I was wrong. Strikeouts aren't always the answer, as apparently, Johnson's minor league 7.30 mark was enough for the Major Leagues. If the season ended today, Johnson would lead the NL in ERA, making him a shoo-in for the National League Rookie of the Year. With that in mind, it's his award to lose, and if I was a gambling man, I'd say his most likely competitors are: Prince Fielder, Dan Uggla, Russ Martin. But before one of the hitters emerge from the scramble, Johnson will have to start pitching badly, an occurrence yet to happen in 25 games this season.

And, of course, as I always urge: please use the comments to give me your own National League rookie list.

WTNYAugust 10, 2006
2006 Story From the Systems: Surprises
By Bryan Smith

Hard to believe, but the minor league baseball season is narrowing down. The season has been full of every weird twist and turn that we have each year on the farm.

For the next five Fridays, we'll attempt to look back on this season and find context for it all. We start with the season's largest surprises, beginning with the clubs in the American League...

Kansas City - Quite simply, demotions are bad news for any rebuilding process. This season, my surprise story has been a pair of Major Leaguers spending time in the minor leagues: Mark Teahen and Zack Greinke. Teahen, the prize acquisition in the Carlos Beltran trade, was sent down to Omaha in early May sporting a .195/.241/.351 line. After torching the Pacific Coast League in just 79 at-bats, Teahen has been one of the AL's best hitters in June. Greinke's story is far more strange and doesn't offer a happy ending. After leaving during Spring Training citing personal problems, the pride of Kansas City has spent much of the season in Wichita, pitching inconsistently in a league where he was once the best prospect.

Tampa Bay - The easiest pick of the group, and the strangest story of the season: the Durham Bulls. Take your prized D-Rays prospect, and take your pick. Delmon Young? Forget the lack of power, Delmon missed 50 games for his infamous thrown bat. B.J. Upton? The good boy of the Durham clan had a DUI after the Bulls were shut out in a doubleheader against Buffalo. Elijah Dukes? Ejected and suspended multiple times, Dukes is now at home in Florida, contemplating giving up baseball. This, of course, came months after Dukes showed signs of being the best of the group. You can bet make-up has suddenly become an important aspect of the D-Rays scouting staff's requirements.

Cleveland - Simply put, no system has had a jump in 2006 like the Indians, thanks to three equally surprising breakouts. While Andy Marte was brought in during the off season to be the future at the hot corner, Kevin Kouzmanoff has made things interesting. After nearly hitting .400 in the Eastern League, Kouzmanoff has continued to flourish since replacing Marte in the Buffalo lineup. Next spring's position battle promises to be one of the year's best. Brian Barton is the ultimate draft day faux pas story, and looking more and more like a legit prospect with each swing in AA. Finally, Chuck Lofgren went from the athletic southpaw with an intriguing upside to a polished pitching prospect worth the Indians delicate touch.

Baltimore - Since Jeffrey Maier, it appears bad news is a staple of this organization. While things appear dismal on the Major League front, the farm system does appear to be making baby steps towards mediocrity. While both Radhames Liz and Brandon Erbe would make good choices for this column, it always seems that with a little good news comes bad news for the Orioles. Brandon Snyder looked great in his pro debut last summer, immediately validating his selection in the first round. The wheels came off quickly this year, and Snyder has yet to make a pit stop. In Low-A, injuries and ineffectiveness led to Snyder playing just 38 games before a demotion, where his season line reads .194/.237/.340. While the New York-Penn League should have offered a vast improvement, Snyder's struggles have not subsided, and the catcher sports a poor .606 OPS.

Seattle - Chris Snelling spends much of the season on the DL? Old news. Aggressive promoting all through the system? A Bavasi staple. And while most of his pushed players have struggled at the higher levels, the Mariners are looking like geniuses for putting Mark Lowe in the bullpen. Once a middle-of-the-road starting prospect, Lowe has been the Mariners own K-Rod/Gagne story of the season, not allowing a run in his first 11 games. Seattle won't be able to tell the Lowe story in the playoffs, but his unsung season is a remarkable story.

Texas - It wasn't long ago that the DVD trio was supposed to be the Rangers saving grace, the pitching that had been lacking in Arlington for a decade. Suddenly, things don't appear so easy. Thomas Diamond, once poised and filthy off the bump, has 68 walks in 107.2 innings at AA. John Danks has continued to be inconsistent as can be, allowing a few too many hits and runs to be an elite pitcher. Surprisingly, Edinson Volquez has been the best of the bunch, but he too comes with control problems: 72 in 120.2 innings. Considered three future anchors six months ago, it would no longer be too shocking if DVD represented half of the Rangers future bullpen.

Los Angeles - Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, even Nick Adenhart, they aren't surprises. These names are tributes to the Angels scouting department, yes, but their 2006 successes come as a small surprise. The one player to turn the most heads, however, has been Jose Arredondo, just 2 years removed from donning a helmet and wood bat. Probably the Cal League's best pitcher before his promotion, Arredondo dominated in one of the minors most difficult environments for pitchers. Arrendondo has struggled in AA, and is raw enough to still have the PROJECT label across his forehead, but for the first time in awhile, the right-hander is beginning to look more like a pitcher than a thrower.

Toronto - While the Blue Jays lack of development in the pitching category is a story of itself, Toronto's big surprise is Adam Lind, who has added something to a faceless system. While Toronto's risk-averse drafting has yielded little dividends in recent years (read: Russ Adams, Aaron Hill), Lind provides validation for the pure college hitter. After flashing polish and gap power in the Florida State League a year ago, Lind added strength in the winter, and now many of his long balls are clearing the fence. Lind is now the clear-cut top prospect in the organization, but no one else has advanced like he has in 2006.

Oakland - Another organization often deemed risk-averse, the A's big story could be the poor full season debuts of their prep pitching trio. But the happier story, the more surprising story, has been Jason Windsor's catapult through the system. The former over-worked Titan CWS MVP has been gangbusters this season, offering enough control and a good enough fastball to get out players consistently in both AA and AAA. While his Major League debut wasn't so hot, Windsor's 11-0 record at AAA speaks for itself. We're a long way from Billy Beane complaining about his collegiate usage habits at this point.

Boston - Opposite from Oakland, the Red Sox season's success story stems from their young pitching draftees. Normally a college-heavy organization, the Red Sox went out on a ledge drafting Clay Buchholz (JC boy) and Michael Bowden (HS right-hander) last season. However, neither player has missed a beat in the South Atlantic League this season, making up for the system's loss of the Jons, Papelbon and Lester. I maintain my preference for Bowden as the better prospect, but with near identical peripherals, it's hard to tell at this point. If not these two, recent draftee Bryce Cox makes for quite the story, as closing in Wilmington is a long way from the back end of Rice's bullpen.

Minnesota - Doubt Mike Radcliffe, and this is what you get. While Matt Garza was not a sexy first round choice 14 months ago, the Fresno State ace would be a top ten pick if the draft were re-held today. With Francisco Liriano out indefinitely, Garza is in the Major Leagues, a long way from his original Fort Myers assignment. However, Garza proved able in each stop between Florida and Minnesota, even dominating in five AAA starts before his call-up. Garza is one of a huge group of pitching success stories for the Twins: Pat Neshek the other feel-good story of the season. Now we're all but waiting for Eduardo Morlan to become elite, seemingly the next Twin in the pecking order.

Chicago - A no-doubter: Josh Fields. What looked like a stretch on draft day looked even worse last season, as Fields couldn't help drawing comparisons to Drew Henson with his long, contact-averse swing. However things clicked for Fields in the winter, and he's been one of the best hitters in the International League in 2006. Problem for Fields is that Joe Crede has been just as good in the Majors, making his .315/.389/.526 line look only moderately appealing. Most shocking, Fields has still not really sunk his teeth into a new position, as Scott Podsednik's seemingly-forthcoming exit would usually open a hole for a hitter of Fields' caliber.

New York - Plain and simple, a 17-year-old in full season baseball is a unique sighting. One of three in the Sally League this season, Jose Tabata has looked like the best and most consistent in 2006. The Yankees newest elite prospect wasn't fantastic, but his near-.800 OPS has convinced many people that he's the future in the Yankee Stadium outfield. Still a long way from the Majors, things get ugly when one thinks about what the NYC hype machine could do to a great story like Tabata. So, for the hope of avoiding that, I nominate J.B. Cox as the season's success story.

Detroit - Flame-throwing is now synonymous witht he Tigers, as Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander are a pair of the best stories from the Major League season. If we look to find a continuation of this in the minors, it's easy, as the arrival of both Humberto Sanchez and Andrew Miller have made minor league headlines this season. Sanchez' arrival is one of refinement, going from a projected reliever to a key September arm for Detroit in their Cinderella season. Miller will also be making a cup of coffee, as his Major League contract stipulates so. After landing Cameron Maybin in 2005, the Tigers landed a bigger heist on draft day 2006, finding consensus top prospect Andrew Miller in the six-hole.

WTNYAugust 09, 2006
Swings and MIsses
By Bryan Smith

October is the month of baseball memories, June the month of swoons, when the long season begins to take notice. July is the month of trading, March the month of spring. And January, in baseball, is the month of predictions.

I haven't been able to write a mid-season review of my sleepers this season (perhaps my first prediction), so today we'll break down each player seven months removed from their praises. I definitely haven't achieved the success rate I had last year (which was probably an anomaly), but inevitably, a few have indeed proven to be worth a higher value than they were a year ago. The players:

  • Reid Brignac (TB/AA/SS): My best success, Brignac is now a highly-valued middle infield prospect. While the Cal League surely boosted his numbers, Brignac has good power and will hit at the next level. Raw defensively, he might not end up at short, but he is athletic enough to improve. I still like Brignac, and it looks like he's the Midwest League’s success story of the season.

  • Christian Garcia (NYY/R/RHP): The danger of projecting success for young pitchers is, of course, attrition. Garcia's oblique injury has tarnished his season, and since returning, he has not looked like the same pitcher. It's hard to know what to make from his current sample size, but he sure doesn't look like the pitcher we saw last season. Too bad, because he was my most confident selection.

  • Homer Bailey (CIN/AA/RHP): Bailey was already highly-regarded, but when I put him on my list, it meant I thought he would enter elite status this season (like Nick Markakis the season before). I was right in this regard, as the player I saw pitch in the Midwest League last season proved more consistent this year. Bailey is the poster-child for learned control, as since seeing a decrease in the walk column, he's become the game's best pitching prospect.

  • Adam Bostick (FLA/AA/LHP): The opposite of Bailey, Bostick is the poster-child for not being able to harness control. While Bostick continues to show good strikeout numbers thanks to an above-average breaking ball, his control numbers completely hold him back as a prospect. I still think a move to the bullpen could create a good reliever, but my confidence in his left arm is out the window.

  • Adam Lind (TOR/AAA/OF): Doubles in the Florida State League turn to home runs in the Eastern League. It seemed too easy a statement to hold up, but it did this season, as Lind proved he had middle-of-the-order power. His defensive profile, or lack thereof, will hold him back as a prospect, but Lind is one of the minors better pure hitters. If Carlos Lee became manageable in left field, Lind can do the same; he'll be ready by next summer.

  • Mark Trumbo (LAA/A-/1B): There is danger in projecting a breakout before you see a player in person. Trumbo is that type of player, as his lack of athleticism shocked me when I saw his big body manning first in Cedar Rapids this spring. Trumbo has big power that should blossom in the Cal League, but his slow bat and poor fielding ability don’t leave a lot of hope. Trojan fans, if it makes you feel better, I can't imagine someone that large being much of a pitching prospect.

  • Brad Harman (PHI/A+/SS): My largest point of confusion on the season. Harman looked to be a fantastic choice in the spring, when the shortstop led the WBC Australian team in hitting. However, his year in Clearwater has proven disastrous, and reports of Harman are very bad. I do think an exit from the league will benefit Harman, but Chase Utley-lite is no longer a valid projection. Ouch.

  • Chuck Lofgren (CLE/A+/LHP): I discovered Lofgren a bit late to put him in my BP article, but I did mention his name as a breakout guy before the season started. Lofgren showed a lot of potential last year, and with his athletic profile and good stuff, looked ready to blossom in 2006. He's done just that with Kinston this season, as he's currently tied for the minor league wins lead. Lofgren is no future ace, but he'll be very valuable in the middle of a rotation.

  • Garrett Mock (ARI/AA/RHP): It just doesn't make sense to me. How can a player that strikes out batters at such a high rate be so poor in the hit column? What seemed like a fluke last year has proven reality in the Southern League, as Mock is simply a hittable pitcher. I don't see a way around this, and while his strikeouts might get him a shot in the big leagues, his hit rates no longer bode well for future success. Perhaps a change in organization - he has since been traded to the Washington Nationals (and Mike Rizzo) - will be best for Mock.

  • WTNYAugust 08, 2006
    Summer Notebook
    By Bryan Smith

    Once upon a time, I kept score at every baseball game I went to, without fail. Need a memory? Look back into old scorecards of Albert Pujols as a Peoria Chief, or a Norberto Martin walk-off home run in Comiskey Park.

    Slowly, my habit started to die, and I stopped keeping score. Needing something to stay into the game, I've made sure to have a notebook nearby in every stadium I've been to in 2006. Glancing over the pages, I have a lot of thoughts that didn't turn into articles this summer, a lot of lists that are in danger of going unread. Today we'll remedy that problem, as I begin to empty out my 2006 notebook...

    After watching Team USA multiple times this summer, I posted a synopsis of my thoughts on SI.com Friday. The article breaks down the top 11 players on the team, but with my notes, I realized I should probably touch on the team's other players. Some quick thoughts on each:

  • Sean Doolittle (Virginia/So./1B): The ACC Player of the Year took the summer off pitching despite a great spring off the bump. His bat struggled a bit compared to last year (when he led the team in hitting), but Doolittle was still impressive. His defense at first base is almost Major League caliber, touted by Coach Tim Corbin as the best at the college level. He'll never hit more than 15-20 home runs in a season with wood, but he has impressive gap power and a good approach at the plate. At this point it's hard to tell where he’ll be drafted at (first or mound?), but either way, a high selection is a given.

  • Ross Detwiler (Missouri St./So./LHP): One of the roster's bigger surprises, Detwiler was the first of the original starters to move to the bullpen. A relief role is where he projects best, as scouts do like his 92-94 mph fastball that offers solid projection. However, Detwiler's a bit of a project at this point, with poor command and a raw breaking ball. He has high bust potential, but as a hard-throwing southpaw, a lot of teams will be interested in attempting to refine his stuff.

  • Brandon Crawford (UCLA/Fr./SS): Very close to making my top 11, Crawford might have been the team's most athletic player. A gifted shortstop, Crawford combined good range with an infield cannon. His bat is a question mark at this point, and he really struggled with a move to wood. He should be back on Team USA next summer, where he'll profile as 2008's Zack Cozart.

  • Cole St. Clair (Rice/So./LHP): A closer at Rice this spring, St. Clair's stock took the biggest bump in Omaha where he showed a lot of versatility. His ability to pitch multiple innings could lend a starting spot next spring, but his future is relief, where he seems (to me) similar to Gregg Olson.

  • Nick Hill (Army/Jr./LHP): Intangibles were a large part of Hill's selection to the team, but make no mistake, the kid can pitch. His fastball won't light up radar guns (84-88 mph), but he had as much pitchability as any non-Roemer on the pitching staff. I like Hill's breaking ball some, and while he faces an uphill battle as a pro pitching prospect, I wouldn't bet against him.

  • Darwin Barney (Oregon St./So./SS): Listed at short, Barney rarely got a chance to play up the middle with Cozart and Crawford on the roster. Instead, he showed versatility this summer, proving able in left field. If he can add 2B and 3B to his resume, Barney will be able to sell himself as a utility player in the Mackowiak/Freel sense, which I always thought he profiled best as. A true tweener.

  • Roger Kieschnick (Texas Tech/Fr./OF): Brook's cousin, Kieschnick seemed to come up with the big hit late in every game. While there is juice in both his bat and his arm, I did not like Kieschnick. The left-handed right fielder looked really bad against advanced pitching, swinging and missing often. There's a hint of great potential there, but Kieschnick's a long way from achieving it.

  • Tommy Hunter (Alabama/Fr./RHP): Quite simply, Hunter's stock has limited potential thanks to his bad body. While Hunter has good control of a low 90s fastball and a good slider, he's large in every area. If Tommy doesn't lose weight in the fall, he faces the risk of a serious drop in the draft as a eligible sophomore next year.

  • Preston Clark (Texas/Fr./C): Clark seems to be a good college player without a ton of potential as a pro prospect. However, his status as a solid receiving catcher should help him land a spot with an organization, and he could be a back-up catcher at the pro level. However, I just didn't see enough hitting ability to like him much.

  • Tim Federowicz (UNC/Fr./C): A surprise freshman season ended in big fashion, as Federowicz made the team to help Arencibia in the late innings. However, the catcher also found a lot of action on the mound, where he flashed a fastball that touched 90. A good defensive catcher, Federowicz has enough contact ability to be listed as a good '08 prospect.

    * * * * *

    After mentioning in last Friday's column that I attended the East Coast Showcase last week, I got a few e-mails asking me who I liked from the event. I won't go into too much detail, because I'm far from being able to properly read players from such limited exposure, but here's a few players to look out for that shined:

  • Matthew Harvey: A big right-hander from the Northeast, Harvey should have a huge senior season in 2007. In his first outing at the showcase, Harvey struck out the only six batters he faced, showing a fantastic low-to-mid 90s fastball and a big, slow curveball he could throw for strikes. A likely top 15 pick.

  • John Tolisano: Apparently, Tolisano has been around the block, competing on the showcase circuit for years. His comfort level was apparent, and Tolisano had a fantastic batting practice, hitting multiple home runs. I think he's a third baseman at the pro level, but his bat will be enough to handle the position switch.

  • Hunter Morris: An Alabama shortstop, Morris will also likely move positions, probably to left field. He showed the most power of any hitter I saw, hitting 4-5 home runs in batting practice. He's a mess defensively, but his bat is first round caliber.

  • Michael Main: The top-ranked prep player next year, I only saw Main hit and take outfield practice, I wasn't there to see him pitch. However, Main's outfield practice blew away everyone else, and he showed fantastic speed down the lines. With an 80 arm and good speed, it was easy to see why Main is valued as a future top-5 pick.

  • Drew Cumberland: I'll end with a sleeper, as Cumberland is hardly valued in the same breath as these other players. However, I thought the world of Cumberland, who showed soft hands and a big arm at short, where I think he'll stay at the next level. He also took a good batting practice, showing projectable power and a good offensive approach.

  • WTNYAugust 04, 2006
    Baseball in All Forms
    By Bryan Smith

    "Baseball is timeless," the back of a shirt I once owned read.

    People would ask me why I was so into baseball, a game too slow to keep their interest. My responses, well-prepared, circled around the type of cheesy cliched lines that adorned popular t-shirts like mine. I jumped on response bandwagons.

    In truth, looking back at those times, I knew I loved baseball, but I could never properly explain why. Putting your reasons in words was always difficult. This summer, my baseball experiences have been as prolific and eclectic as ever, and it's all starting to make sense to me. I'm starting to develop my own real answer.

    Baseball isn't timeless. It isn't like math, a universal language the same in South Africa as it is in Australia, the same in downtown New York City as it is in rural Iowa. Baseball in these locales revolves around the same game, but I love it because it isn't.

    Last fall, I was lucky enough to find a ticket to the first game of the World Series. A lifelong Cubs fan, I didn't go thinking the outcome would matter to me. But in U.S. Cellular, the atmosphere captured me in seconds. I remember getting goose bumps during the national anthem, looking around and realizing that I was in the midst of the luckiest moment of my life.

    World Series baseball isn't the baseball they play in early August. More importantly, it isn't the same feeling from the stands. When Bobby Jenks entered Game 1, and particularly when he struck out Jeff Bagwell, I was hooked. I was as excited in that moment as I'd been when Mark Prior shut out the Braves in the playoffs a couple years earlier.

    After a long winter break from baseball, I returned to the game in the spring, making an annual sojourn with my father to Arizona. We don't trek to Phoenix for the sun or for the golf, but instead fill our schedule with baseball, filling it as much as possible.

    Spring Training baseball is a different beast as well. Managers throw strategy to the wind, more concerned with trying things to gauge their team. Superstars are trying to recapture their stroke, altering and tinkering until they find it. Others are playing in desperation, trying with everything they have to make a roster, make an extra 300k, make their pension. Boone Logan made the White Sox.

    Only a peripheral college baseball fan, in May I went to my first College World Series regional, watching my preseason championship pick North Carolina host Winthrop, UNC-Wilmington and Maine. I saw scouts drool over Andrew Miller and analyze Daniel Bard, and family cheer for their son/brother/etc like you'll never hear at a Major League park.

    As if I have to tell you, everything changes with an aluminum bat. I did see a 21-19 game, living up to the stereotype of the college game. But what I saw, what I loved about college baseball, was to see a game where mistakes are magnified. In a game where errors are much more commonplace than the Majors, college baseball almost always rewards the team that is well coached, plays good defense and pitches well. North Carolina, not so surprisingly, won with ease.

    This year, I've seen a dozen minor league games, going from town to town trying to catch a glimpse of the players I have/will rank. Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen. The A's high school trio. Justin Upton and Delmon Young. And more.

    It's a surreal experience to go to a game ready to just watch one player. To see baseball with blinders on, watching a player as he runs the bases, watching the third baseman field it only with peripheral vision. Watching how a player reacts to a ball off the bat, not following the ball into a mitt. I struggle with this, but am improving, learning slowly how to properly scout a prospect.

    For five games in the summer, I watched the national Team USA, playing against Taiwan and Japan. I saw trick pitching from the Asian teams, I saw scrappy players that went with pitches like few Americans can. I saw Pedro Alvarez, a future first rounder, hit one of the longest home runs I've seen in person. I broke down David Price's weird delivery, and heard the buzz of scouts when Daniel Moskos first took the mound.

    This week, I spent two days at the East Coast Professional Baseball Showcase, an event designed by those in the game to watch the best prep prospects on the Atlantic coast. I struggled through 105-degree heat to watch batting practice after batting practice, to see right fielders practice throws to third base, and catchers try to show off their pop times.

    Certainly, this experience was the most difficult of all, and it was this that made me realize why I love baseball. This wasn't a 3-strikes, 3-outs type game that we're taught, but a fraction of it. Scouts gained as much from watching a shortstop field grounders and throw to first than they did watch him play against competition. With bits and pieces, the smartest men in baseball could discern prospect from suspect.'

    What do I love about baseball? I love two things ...

    I love the desperation. A player in search of a ring, a fringe player trying to make the 25-man, a college player on the field for the last time, a prospect attempting to rise above his competiton, a player swinging and pitching for his country, a teenager trying to impress a scout. Baseball isn't the same in Game 1 as it is in a baseball showcase, but the desperation is.

    More than anything, I love the fragments of the national pastime. A Michael Main throw from right field. A Julio Borbon triple. Delmon Young's first home run of the season. Daniel Bard's beautiful, easy delivery. Boone Logan's unique, strange one. Bobby Jenks fastball, gliding past Jeff Bagwell's swing. Each moment different than every other, but as beautiful as the one before it.

    WTNYJuly 26, 2006
    Short Stocks
    By Bryan Smith

    Short-season baseball. A hodgepodge of good college players, learning high school players, foreign players of every background. Age differences can run up to about 6 years - wood bat experience about the same.

    For these reasons, judging short-season baseball has always been a torment to me. It's hard to get a good handle on players when you have very little context about what it means that they're doing. However, any dismissal of short-season baseball means you don't see Anibal Sanchez or Radhammes Liz coming, when everyone else did.

    As of yet I have no great way to add context to short-season numbers, but I think it's best to pull players into categories they fit in, and evaluate them there. College players in short-season ball are evaluated separate from the high school players of the same caliber. Players who spent their springs in extended spring training get grouped into one as well.

    Looking at the leaderboards and through the box scores of short-season leagues with this mindset, certain players start to jump out. Here's a list I have of players impressing in their non-impressive leagues this summer ...

    Removed From Aluminum

    We expect big things from the college crop at this level, as we would if they started next season in low-A. And most of the time, they deliver - short-season leaderboards are littered with college players, some just organizational guys drafted after the 20th round. Looking at the leaderboards, you then have to pick a player who has completely distinguished himself from those around him.

    When Evan Longoria left the New York-Penn League, the home run race suddenly became a one man show. Yesterday, we talked about how Warren McFadden is benefitting in the Cape Cod League from no longer playing in Tulane's AAA stadium. The same is now happening for Mark Hamilton, who has twice as many home runs as the nearest slugger. Readers will know that I've long loved Hamilton, and that his stock really jumped for me when I found out he was hitting .245/.383/.592 on Friday nights in college. The Cards will probably jump Hamilton to high-A next season, but as long as the strikeouts don't bring him down, Hamilton should rise quickly. I still don't believe he slipped through the second round.

    I'll go with an atypical selection for my pitcher in this category: Steve Uhlmansiek. Unlike Hamilton, Uhlmansiek wasn't playing in college baseball as of two months ago, nor even 14 months ago. But the Mariner southpaw was once Mike Pelfrey's ace-teammate at Wichita State, and Seattle drafted him knowing he had to be healed first. The road to recovery from arm surgery is a long one, so his performance thus far is just a stepping stone. But after spending two years forgotten about as a prospect, Uhlmansiek belongs in the discussion once again.

    On Their Own For the First Time

    The Oakland A's have appeared very focused on appearing less dogmatic in their drafting ways since Moneyball. That included drafting three high school pitchers in the high rounds in 2005, a group that has looked less than impressive in their first professional season. This season, they went the high school route early again, drafting high school slugger Matt Sulentic in the third round.

    In addition to his high draft status, Sulentic also was aggressively promoted to the Northwest League, the higher of the A's two short-season affiliates. And unsurprisingly to Billy Beane and co., Sulentic has matched every challenge. Sulentic has a hit in each of his last six games, where he's collected five extra base hits and five walks. His .355 average is near the top of the NWL leaderboard - a remarkable feat for someone yet to turn 19.

    Pitchers at this age are far more coddled by their organizations, making a selection here a little more difficult. Clayton Kershaw is a possibility, but the first high school pitcher should dominate the Gulf Coast League. I almost went with Sean O'Sullivan, who doesn't really fit the bill. But the year's top draft-and-follow is making another Angels investment look good.

    Instead, we'll go with Jeremy Jeffress, who has proven that not every high school flame-thrower is raw. The Virginia right-hander touched the high 90s during the showcase circuit, making teams forget about his small 6-0 frame. Now, his performance on the mound is living up to those velocity readings. Jeffress hasn't allowed a run in his last three outings, and in those 11.2 innings, he's allowed 3 hits, 4 walks and struck out 12 batters. Suddenly, the Brewers pitching crop (Yovani Gallardo, Mark Rogers, Will Inman, Jeffress) is starting to look pretty impressive.

    Making Up for Lost Time

    Bonus babies need to be delicately taken care of, and as a result, many teams are now giving their high profile draftees a year wait to make their full-season debut. Instead, the player spends his spring in extended spring training, and his summer in short-season ball. The thinking is that a player learns how to be on his own in a controlled environment, while also setting up a player for better success in his first season.

    One organization seeing a lot of positive feedback from this strategy is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Two of the Midwest League's best arms, Wade Davis and Jacob Magee, are both high school draftees who spent their 2005 seasons dominating the NYPL. Given their success, the team had little reservations about making Jeremy Hellickson wait to debut in full-season ball.

    And again, the results are looking good, as Hellickson is leading the New York-Penn League in strikeouts with 38. Another small right-hander, Hellickson throws three good pitches - and offers plus pitchability. He'll have to sharpen his breaking pitch going forward to become an elite arm, but he's the most polished of the Davis-Magee-Hellickson bunch.

    There was little competition for what hitter would win this award, because as dominating as Mark Hamilton has been on his home run race, Chris Carter has been better. Seemingly the sports world's most popular name, Carter is neither the old Vikings receiver of the Arizona Diamondbacks' AAA slugger. Instead, Carter was a higher round pick from Las Vegas by the White Sox last season that disappointed when they tried him in the South Atlantic League this season.

    After his bad full-season trial, the team quickly pulled him, assigning him to extended spring training immediately. It's thought that he blossomed here, as Carter now has 10 home runs in the Pioneer League - the next closest number is five. While he's limited to first base and doesn't walk enough, players with Carter's type of power are few and far between. You can bet that now the Kannapolis Intimidators are desperately awaiting Carter's arrival.

    Many other players would have fit this category, including a host of Angel prospects. Ryan Mount has been fantastic in Carter's shadow in the Pioneer League, and his presence up the middle makes him a better prospect. And the Angels drafted Trevor Bell before Mount, and Bell is near the league's top ERA mark.

    WTNYJuly 25, 2006
    Working Through Wood
    By Bryan Smith

    It should be no surprise that when you put wooden bats in the hands of aluminum-ready college hitters, they struggle. It's a pitching dream to make this 180, but an offensive nightmare.

    However, despite depressed numbers, there is nothing better for a college player to spend his summer enduring the tribulations of using wood. Scouts flock to these leagues, trying to project how a player will handle the full-time switch. Some players see their stocks fly through the roof in these situations; other players watch their draft status fall.

    No league is better in this regard than the Cape Cod League, which annually produces more top-round college talent than any summer destination. And even where the best of the best flock, struggles with wood follow. Twenty hitters drafted in the first five rounds of the 2006 draft spent their previous summer in the Cape; the group produced an aggregate .745 OPS.

    We're nearing the end of the regular season in this year's version of the Cape, so it's time to look at potential names to add onto 2007 follow lists. While we'll save the pitchers for another day, here's my position breakdown of the best seasons/prospects that should be available for the 2007 draft.

    Catcher

    Starting at the top, we have Matt Wieters, who I previously stated as the top-ranked player for the 2007 draft. While Vanderbilt ace David Price is riding an impressive scoreless streak for Team USA, things have not changed as Wieters has produced substantially in his first Cape Cod League summer. The Georgia Tech catcher, who I previously mentioned would be the tallest in Major League history (or near the top), is hitting .329/.447/.529 this summer. Wieters was fantastic in the collegiate postseason, and if he continues on his current path, should be a top-3 pick next June.

    Another catcher enjoying a strong summer is Josh Donaldson, from Auburn, who splits his time between behind the plate and the hot corner. Donaldson did throw out 38% of baserunners in his sophomore campaign, however, so don't be surprised if teams take him with the intention of making a full-time catcher out of him. With his current summer in the Cape Cod League, where he's hitting .320/.393/.524, teams won't have reservations playing him anywhere. The other player to watch at the position is Mitch Canham, champion Oregon State's backstop. This summer, Canham is hitting .344/.446/.492 following a good experience in Omaha.

    First Base

    There's a small crop on the right side this season, as only one name really sticks out as a potential high-round 2007 draftee: Matt Rizzotti. Despite playing at a small school, Manhattan, Rizzotti is enjoying his second good summer in the Cape. Scouts have seen enough of the first baseman to think highly of him. This summer, he's currently hitting .236/.401/.377, showing a lot of patience, a good amount of hitting ability, and a workable amount of power. Behind Rizzotti, there's very little, as only non-high tier prospects Mitch Moreland (Mississippi State) and Jordan Pacheco (New Mexico) moderately stick out.

    Second Base

    Clemson remained atop national rankings all season thanks to a fantastic offense that had no leader, but a high, high number of contributors. One of the better hitters for the Tigers was Taylor Harbin, who is continuing his good offensive production in the Cape. Harbin impressed often on television during the postseason, and scouts have high opinions of the second baseman, as well. Harbin doesn't have fantastic patience, but has a good amount of pop, all of which can be seen from his current .271/.304/.396 line.

    Speed usually dominates this position, and a couple of other players find their way here because of their legs. Eric Farris is diminutive and offers very little pop, but his speed and patience should find him drafted next season. He's currently 10/12 on the bases in the Cape while hitting .344/.417/.406. Jeffrey Rea has not been as good at the plate or on the bases, but the Mississippi State middle infielder is the better prospect of the two. Rea will actually be a senior next season, so the leverage a team good have on him could yield a decent middle-round selection. This summer, Rea is hitting .293/.404/.358 with eight steals.

    Shortstop

    Surprisingly, the first position on the defensive spectrum has very few good players this summer, as many of the better players on this position currently play for Team USA. That leaves the best shortstop as Michael Fisher, another Georgia Tech player, which shows the reason for their big 2006 offense. Fisher's ability to play multiple positions might be his most attractive trait, because his bat has struggled a bit. This summer has been just OK, as Fisher is hitting .246/.342/.348. Another player to watch is Andrew Romine, from Arizona State, who didn't play often this spring due to returning from a scary blood clots surgery. Romine has all types of talent, but has yet to really put them on the field. He's a sleeper to look out for.

    Third base

    There's a couple players at the hot corner who stick out for me: Josh Satin (California) and Matt Mangini (Oklahoma State). The latter player is transferring there from N.C. State, where he made headlines with a huge start this spring. Mangini went on to have a decent second half, but his numbers remained solid. Teaming with Corey Brown next season, the Cowboys should have one of the nation's better 1-2 punches.

    California looked to have a good 1-2 punch in Chris Errecart and Brennan Boesch at the beginning of the spring, but the two struggled, and Josh Satin emerged as one of the team's best hitters. His arrival has been prolonged this summer, as Satin seems to be upping his status to a top-3 rounder for next June. This summer, the Bear is hitting .262/.373/.346, and while the numbers don't look impressive, he's doing just enough to impress scouts.

    Another player worth mentioning is Matt Cusick, the third baseman for USC. While Cusick offers nothing in the way of power, he's a good defender at third base and has great on-base skills. Rich Lederer has compared him to Bill Mueller. The comparison seems to be holding up in Cusick's wood bat trial, as he's hitting a defensible .283/.408/.349 on the summer. Teams will be scared off by his lack of power, but he should make the organization that gobbles him up in the middle rounds very happy.

    Outfield

    This is another position experiencing a weaker year than many in the past, as only a few players look to be solid, bona fide selections in next year's draft. One of them is Warren McFadden, who hit well in his redshirt freshman season with Tulane, smacking more than 20 doubles. The move from a Triple-A park to the Cape has gone well, some of those doubles have gone for homers, and McFadden's .270/.366/.487 line looks solid.

    All Michael Taylor, of Stanford, needs to do is to convince the scouts that some of his tools will convert once he makes the full-time switch to wooden bats. So far, so good, as Taylor has impressed this summer. His patience remains an obstacle, as he has just a .287 OBP in the Cape, but his .197 ISO is one of the better numbers we have to report. Taylor runs well and hits for power, a combination that almost always yields a higher pick.

    Colin Cowgill had a big breakthrough year with Kentucky in 2006, and has had a decent-enough summer to keep some dreams alive for next year's draft. His .232/.308/.379 line could certainly use some sprucing up, but a recent hot streak should do wonders for his stock. Also, keep an eye out for Tyler Henley, an outfielder from Rice. In the midst of a pretty big summer, .234/.390/.453, Henley could be getting the breakthrough he needs for a high selection.

    As mentioned, next time around we'll look at the pitchers...

    WTNYJuly 18, 2006
    Too Little Salty
    By Bryan Smith

    Fact: In the prospect world, there is no one that creates more polarity than Jarrod Saltalamacchia. It isn't very close.

    In a few popular midseason rankings, I have seen everything from Salty's ranking. He's been in the top 25 in one, to near the bottom of a top ten in catchers rankings. Jarrod was at 75 on my own list, and other sites would likely leave him out of the top 100.

    If nothing else, Saltalamacchia represents one huge issue facing those who rank prospects: fish or cut bait?

    After a good season as a teenager in the South Atlantic League in 2004, many (not including myself, unfortunately) predicted Salty would break out the next season. Scouts raved about Salty's bat, which only shined at times, but winced at his defense. With Brian McCann shining ahead of him in the system, Salty was a second tier prospect for the system.

    Things changed last season, dramatically, when the catcher succeeded at one of the minor league's most difficult stadiums. Showing power that rivaled the best in the minors, projecting better offensive numbers for Salty than McCann was a common practice. Johnny Estrada was out the door, this we knew, but who was the right person to project as the Braves backstop?

    Thanks to good defense in his Major League cup of coffee, along with solid offensive numbers, most people (this time including myself, thank you) went with Brian McCann. The Braves felt confidence in the slugger's ability to call a game, and didn't hesitate to start the season with him behind the plate. But they were prepared to have a problem of depth, surely the game's best problem to have.

    Obviously, this season has not gone to plan. Saltalamacchia has hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season; his season numbers are among the worst of any full season qualifier in professional baseball. But in each quote, the catcher has maintained one fact: he's turned his focus from offense to defense this season. We have seen results, as I noted last week, as Salty's caught-stealing numbers are at a career high.

    However, no team can employ a catcher with a sub-.600 OPS, no matter how good his defense is. Offensively, there have not even been the faintest signs of upside; Baseball America has reported scouts claim Salty looks lost at the plate. At the same time, McCann has predictably risen as one of the NL's better catchers; surely a player the Braves want for much of the next decade.

    Surely the question most commonly circulating through the Braves player development channels is what method should the team take next to solve the catcher's problems. Do you put him at DH the rest of the season, and force him to tackle offense with the effort he's put on his ability to catch? If so, are you ready to accept Salty's future does not lie behind the plate? The Braves aren't, and have shown much in allowing Jarrod to stay behind the plate, and in AA this season.

    In my latest rankings, I did not have Chris Iannetta ranked ahead of Saltalamacchia. Iannetta is in the midst of his own breakout season, poised to catch for the Rockies as early as 2007. His bat was better than both Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki in AA Tulsa, and his defense is better than Salty's. How?

    Hope. The Braves need to make a change with Saltalamacchia, and should likely finish the season with something dramatic. But the player we saw last season cannot be simply lost. The Braves must now find him, and when they do, we'll see that Salty deserved to be ranked among the game's top 100 prospects, if not in the top quarter.

    WTNYJuly 12, 2006
    2006 WTNY Midseason 75
    By Bryan Smith

    Without a question, this is a sandwich prospect year for pitching prospects. On the way out is one of the best classes ever, on the way in is a draft that seemed to only boast pitchers. Yesterday, in the unveiling of my prospect list, just three pitchers made the first tier, which encompassed 23 players.

    Today, in the second and final part of this installment, you will read about more pitchers than hitters. In all, 42 hitters made the list, against 33 pitchers. While this seems fairly even, the lack of top-flight pitching prospects leaves the two groups on different levels. While the likes of Andrew Miller and Brad Lincoln should help even things this winter, this is truly the season where TINSTAPP holds the most water.

    Five Diamondbacks made the top tier yesterday, and one more player from the organization will be discussed today. This gives the club the minors' premier farm system, and should make Mike Rizzo the top GM prospect on the market. Who else has constructed good systems and future job prospects? Read on, for the rest of my midseason top 75, to find out...

    24. Colby Rasmus, of: Cardinals (A+)

    I've reached a summer record of most minor league games seen in person this year, and I maintain Rasmus is the sweetest swing I have encountered. His ceiling is lower than the other freakish outfielders in his class, but Rasmus does everything with ease.

    25. Joel Guzman, of/3b: Dodgers (AAA)

    Slips out of the first tier because he hasn't taken the step forward that many others in the organization have. Guzman has a good future in baseball, but I believe his best development route would be the Major League school of hard knocks with a bad organization that could afford waiting him out.

    26. Scott Elbert, lhsp: Dodgers (AA)

    In contrast, Elbert has taken that step forward this season. Currently the best southpaw in the minor leagues, Elbert has electric stuff, as control is the only thing holding him back from elite status.

    27. Yovani Gallardo, sp: Brewers (AA)

    One of the season's best success stories, Gallardo offers excellent pitchability for a 20-year-old. The only question is whether his stuff will be enough to hang near the top of a rotation.

    28. Humberto Sanchez, sp: Tigers (AAA)

    For me, Sanchez was among the most impressive in the Futures Game, even if he showed the nation how large he really is. If Jim Leyland is serious about a 6-man rotation in the second half, Sanchez' presence in the Majors shouldn't slow Detroit down.

    29. Dustin Pedroia, 2b: Red Sox (AAA)

    After a slow start, Pedroia has come on strong, and appears ready for the Major Leagues. He'll get his chance in 2007, and should be a solid regular in the middle infield for years to come.

    30. Matt Garza, sp: Twins (AA)

    Garza's name this high on the list is testament to Mike Radcliffe, the game's best scouting director. Garza has slowed a bit in AA, but his dominance in AA showed big-time potential.

    31. Jason Hirsh, sp: Astros (AAA)

    Free Jason Hirsh!

    32. Reid Brignac, ss: Devil Rays (A+)

    The best success story of my breakout picks, Brignac has brought the power stick to Visalia. His high error total creates a questionable future, and we still need to see this away from the Pacific.

    33. Brandon Erbe, sp: Orioles (A-)

    In many ways, the Jay Bruce of the pitching class, as I would not be surprised (in the slightest), if Erbe is the top-ranked pitching prospect in a year. For now, we have to hope his arm doesn't break down even amidst the Orioles enviable coddling.

    34. John Danks, lhsp: Rangers (AAA)

    Another slow starter in the higher levels, Danks only slides a bit on my prospect list. Southpaw starters with high ceilings are a rare commodity, so the Rangers will execute a lot of patience with the one-time first rounder.

    35. Felix Pie, of: Cubs (AAA)

    This is the beginning of a freefall if Pie doesn't pick things up. The tools are all there, but since May 1, any type of performance has not. Things need to change in the second half.

    36. Fernando Martinez, of: Mets (A-)

    Like Tabata yesterday, I'm too scared to put him both any lower or any higher. Immensely talented, evaluating Martinez properly will be difficult until he has a long bill of health.

    37. Micah Owings, sp: Diamondbacks (AAA)

    Owings provides a lot of polish and has flown through the Arizona system. A late-season cup of coffee will complete a whirlwind two-year run for Owings.

    38. Daric Barton, 1b/dh: Athletics (DL)

    Like Jason Kubel last year, we can't really penalize Barton too much for getting injured. His early season struggles were worrisome, but only a real cynic would have soured on his bat already.

    39. Nolan Reimold, of: Orioles (A+)

    The rare raw college player, Reimold has a long way to go before he reaches his ceiling. However, he's shown a bit of everything in Frederick, leaving Orioles fans salivating.

    40. Eric Hurley, sp: Rangers (A+)

    It has been an awesome season for Hurley, pitching well across the board in the Cal League. His stuff is fantastic, and if he receives a late-summer promotion, don't be surprised if his ERA increases.

    41. Edinson Volquez, sp: Rangers (AAA)

    This is a cautious ranking, as Volquez has earned this position, I just don't have a lot of confidence in it. When I close my eyes and try to envision his career, I foresee a middle reliever every time.

    42. Adam Miller, sp: Indians (AA)

    Miller will have a hard time ever meeting the expectations laid out for him after flashing so much potential in the 2004 season. However, this season has been a step in the right direction for the Indians star righthander.

    43. Trevor Crowe, of: Indians (A+)

    Right behind Miller on the Indians prospect list is Crowe, who has shown a lot of skills in a lot of different areas this season. His walk rate is particularly exciting, as he could develop into an invaluable asset alongside Grady Sizemore. Perhaps he'll be the player everyone thought Franklin Gutierrez could be.

    44. Hunter Pence, of: Astros (AA)

    At some point, you have to give a guy credit if he continues to have success, despite the naysayers not going away. Pence has legitimate power, and is going to have some success in the Major Leagues. However, there's a gray line between some success and consistent success, and thanks to his BB/K rate, I can't see which side he's on quite yet.

    45. Gio Gonzalez, lhsp: Phillies (AA)

    Another cautious ranking, as I'm beginning to worry if Gonzalez is injured. Since June 1 the southpaw has an ERA north of 6, and has allowed home runs in each start. If the breaking ball isn't as crisp, is something wrong with the arm?

    46. Eric Campbell, 3b: Braves (A-)

    Doesn't receive the hype he should, as Campbell has hit for a fantastic amount of power in his full-season debut. While he doesn't quite walk enough yet, his great contact rate leaves all the makings for a future All-Star hitter.

    47. Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers (AA)

    Braun seems to be among the minors most hot-and-cold hitters, especially when the third baseman reaches new levels. A future dynamite fantasy option, Braun has continued to impress after a promotion to Huntsville.

    48. Andrew McCutchen, of: Pirates (A-)

    My concern after seeing McCutchen is that he's just too skinny to ever develop good power. But for now, he can fly with the best of them, and with refinement should be a weapon in centerfield and at the top of a batting order.

    49. Chuck Lofgren, lhsp: Indians (A+)

    Athletic and polished, Lofgren has done even better than I could have imagined in March. The southpaw thrives on good pitchability, but also has the stuff to thrive at higher levels.

    50. Wade Davis, sp: Devil Rays (A-)

    A popular breakout candidate that I never backed, Davis has been fantastic in the Midwest League this season. The righthander has slowed down since a fantastic start, but he has the power stuff to move in a hurry.

    51. Ricky Romero, lhsp: Blue Jays (AA)

    The Blue Jays stayed cautious and allowed Romero to debut late, but he made up for lost time, dominating the Florida State League. He has struggled a bit in two AA starts, but Romero is not making the Blue Jays regret taking the safe route last June.

    52. Adam Lind, of: Blue Jays (AA)

    Just as I expected, Lind has seen many of his 2005 doubles clear the fence this season. A talented power hitter, I'm curious where his patience went since last season. A better walk rate the only improvement he needs to make offensively.

    53. Troy Patton, lhsp: Astros (A+)

    Patton moves up slowly in this list, basically staying stagnant with a season that falls short of some expectations. He has still showed a lot of the maturity that draws such high praise, but also has been hit harder at the new level. His next jump, the big one, will go a long way in determining the truth to his profile.

    54. Kevin Slowey, sp: Twins (AA)

    Put your guns down, people. Slowey has had an amazing season, even a historic one, but he just isn't the caliber of the guys in front of him. His continued success in the Eastern League is a good sign, but I don't see the ceiling that other people do with Slowey. However, another half like this one went, and he'll undoubtedly break the top 50.

    55. Thomas Diamond, sp: Rangers (AA)

    Losing your control at an age as old as Diamond is not, not, not a good thing. Diamond has shown improvement recently, but a half like he's had is worthy of the slide on this list that he's received.

    56. Joey Votto, 1b: Reds (AA)

    I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

    57. Ubaldo Jimenez, sp: Rockies (AAA)

    Big breakout first half, spotty record in the past, stuff that remains filthy and unrefined. Jimenez could go both directions, but the most likely destination remains a successful bullpen role.

    58. Sean West, lhsp: Marlins (A-)

    Pitching on a historic staff in Greensboro this summer, West has emerged as the best blend of stuff and pitchability of the rotation's four first rounders. Aaron Thompson can't match West's stuff, Ryan Tucker doesn't have anywhere near the pitchability. Chris Volstad is an anomaly; West is the best.

    59. Neil Walker, c: Pirates (A+)

    Dropping him this far is less an indictment of Walker's first half, and more an indictment of my winter ranking: it was too high. I took some late excitement about his power potential and pushed Walker to 44, which was setting the bar of expectations too high. His current performance is way below that, however, and he'll need to bounce back from his injury problems in a big way during the second half.

    60. Scott Mathieson, sp: Phillies (AA)

    Just like Humberto, Mathieson has continued upon a successful winter stint to pitch very well this season. His stuff really isn't in Sanchez' vicinity, but Mathieson looks like he definitely isn't far from being a #2/3 starter in the Majors. If so, even this ranking is too low.

    61. George Kottaras, c: Padres (AA)

    Has continued to improve after a 2005 season in which he turned heads but also showed flaws. Kottaras has the patience and gap power to succeed in PETCO, and he should be behind the plate for a long time. I'm coming around as a believer.

    62. Jose Arredondo, sp: Angels (AA)

    One of the most interesting stories on this list, Arredondo was an infielder just two seasons ago. While Carlos Marmol had a similar track catapult him to the big leagues, Arredondo is making his own push for Majors. Already on the 40-man, and as surprising as this is, a September call-up would no longer be too shocking.

    63. Jacob Magee, lhsp: Devil Rays (A-)

    The better statistic half of the D-Rays' low-level aces, Magee doesn't quite have the stuff of Wade Davis. However, his strikeout rate and handedness are both huge pluses, and Magee could take off with another good half-season.

    64. Josh Fields, 3b: White Sox (AAA)

    Fields has improved by leaps of bounds this year, showing one of the better power strokes in the minor leagues. Fields, however, has a lot of trouble making contact, and will need to continue to post high BABIP rates to succeed. His currently level is unsustainable, but if moved to left field, Fields can still be a valuable part of the White Sox in the near and long-term future.

    65. Radhammes Liz, sp: Orioles (A+)

    His statistics are amazing, consistently, but his age is damning. Liz has the fastball to move up the ladder, but the Orioles have been stubborn about promoting him. The time is now to see if Liz has a future beyond the bullpen.

    66. Mike Bowden, sp: Red Sox (A-)
    67. Clay Buchholz, sp: Red Sox (A-)

    These two are extremely similar; picking between them is nothing more than intuition. I'm going with Bowden, who is younger and has been a bit better since struggling early in the season. Both are good prospects, and the Red Sox probably wouldn't mind if all their top prospects had clones.

    68. Gaby Hernandez, sp: Marlins (A+)

    Hernandez has continued to pitch like a solid middle-rotation guy this season, which means the Marlins got what they paid for. Actually, more ... we can all agree Lo Duca is overrated, no? Hernandez is just another pitching prospect in this organization, but whether they trade him or add him onto their young staff, he's definitely a valued commodity.

    69. James Loney, 1b: Dodgers (AAA)

    It's been a long road back for Loney, who has been fantastic in the PCL this season. He's great defensively, and his contact skills are as good as it gets. But his lack of power is worrisome, not just with a future in Dodger Stadium, but a future in the Major Leagues.

    70. Glen Perkins, lhsp: Twins (AA)

    Hasn't been fantastic, but Perkins has been a good incumbent in the New Britain rotation. A hometown Minnesota boy, Perkins might have more value to the Twins than your average #3/4 pitching prospect.

    71. Jacobby Ellsbury, of: Red Sox (A+)

    I went over his profile recently, but really, the Red Sox are getting a little less this season than what they bargained for last June. However, Ellsbury has still been great defensively and has continued to shown a lot of the skills necessary to be a future leadoff man.

    72. Asdrubal Cabrera, mi: Indians (AAA)

    I'm preaching patience with the bat here, and wincing in thoughts of how he might produce in the Majors if the Indians allow him to replace Ronnie Belliard at second next season (hint: not good). Cabrera's bat is a long-term project, but his defense is not. It's already a fantastic tool, good enough to move Jhonny Peralta to a new position (in a perfect world). He shouldn't have a full-time job in the Majors next season, but he is going to be good for a long time.

    73. Cesar Carrillo, rhp: Padres (DL)

    This ranking might be aggressive given his recent injury, but Carrillo was very good before the injury tarnished his first full season. A good rehab program could have Carrillo better than ever. Padres fans are just hoping his rehab program goes better than the Tim Stauffer route.

    74. Dustin McGowan, rhp: Blue Jays (AAA)

    Will the real Dustin McGowan please stand up?

    75. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c: Braves (AA)

    I'm not ready to let go, yet. Salty has legitimately improved behind the plate this season, but that can be discounted when reminded how bad he's been with the bat. It's been awful. There was too much talent last year to close the book on him, but the day we can is not far away.

    WTNYJuly 11, 2006
    WTNY Midseason 75 (Top Tier)
    By Bryan Smith

    It's hard to believe what a difference six months makes. Winter is a time for projection, for hope, a time where each prospect's cup is half-full. But thrown bats and extended slumps change everything, including the ranking of prospects.

    As I have done in the past, I have once again compiled a ranking of the minors' best 75 prospects. While the name atop the list has not changed, it came with far less ease than in January. Below Delmon, everything remains in flux.

    I have decided to make eligibility requirements subjective this season, opting to not include any player that should lose his prospect eligibility by season's end. Any player currently in the Majors was exempt, and many in the minors (read: Lastings Milledge) were taken off the list by my subjectivity. If, in fact, these players remain prospects for another season, you can expect they'll be back in another six months. And by then, I think we can agree, everything will be different all over again.

    My thought process when ranking prospects works in tiers, and while I would normally reserve this day for a ranking of the top 25, I found it more educational to cut things off at the end of my first ranked tier of prospects. Enjoy...

    1. Delmon Young, of: Devil Rays (AAA)

    Following the Delmon Young press conference, I had decided Young would not be my top prospect at the midseason mark. It would be my way of not just indicting his bad showing of make-up, but his low walk and home run totals in AAA as well. Then I saw Young for the first time, the night of his first home run, and my mind was changed. The power is going to come, I promise. He's hitting .375 with seven extra-base hits and just 11 strikeouts in 19 games since returning. Minor league baseball has no better player.

    2. Alex Gordon, 3b: Royals (AA)

    Like I said, Young was not my first prospect three weeks ago, Gordon was. And if I had stayed with that decision, it would have been defensible. Gordon represents the best bet for success in the minor leagues; he has no discernible flaw. He's going to hit for average, a lot of power, draw plenty of walks, play steady defense, and steal enough bases to make his fantasy owners giddy. Suddenly his four figure baseball card is looking like a sound investment, no?

    3. Howie Kendrick, 2b: Angels (AAA)
    4. Brandon Wood, ss: Angels (AA)

    Wood has done little for this order to be flip-flopped, continuing on a path to success after a ridiculous 2005. But this season it's Kendrick to take the full step forward, catapulting himself past Wood and into the top five.

    Kendrick, I've said before, is a player with limited potential value. In other words, his ceiling has a roof. Confined by his own stature, there is a limit to the power Kendrick can develop in relation to Wood. However, Kendrick is nearly guaranteed to hit for a better average than Wood.

    The ranking of these two players is a simple test of risk vs. reward. Kendrick offers no risk, but his reward is limited in comparison to Wood, whose ceiling is highest among current prospects.

    5. Justin Upton, of: Diamondbacks (A-)

    Watching Upton in person, the top overall pick from last year exudes an aura that doesn't usually follow teenagers. The aura was first evident in Spring Training, when Upton's build and bat were enough to hold his own in big league camp. He shined on the national stage, saving what some would call his best Cactus League game for a contest against the White Sox on WGN. Now far from the big stage, Upton is struggling a bit, but in seeing him, it's obvious there is more than the numbers tell us. Upton will come around, if not at the pace I thought, and when he does, sparks will fly.

    6. Stephen Drew, ss: Diamondbacks (AAA)

    If Drew began the season in the Arizona batting order, it would have surprised no one had he separated himself from the NL Rookie of the Year pack. Instead, the Diamondbacks chose the cautious route with their young shortstop, maintaining another year of mediocrity from the position for the betterment of their future. Good decision. Drew has progressed as expected in AAA, and he is on the right timetable to make a splash next season. A gifted offensive player, Drew has even more to show than what he has since signing in pro baseball.

    7. Billy Butler, of: Royals (AA)

    I have always believed in Butler's bat, and on Sunday, his performance in the Futures Game showed why this is a good idea. Butler is as good a hitter for his age as it gets, he's polished and powerful. His play in the field is a work in progress, but it's improving, even at a Carlos Lee-type rate. The most concerning blip on Butler's radar is a drastic home/road split that favors his time in Wichita. For all we know, it's nothing, but it's also worth keeping notice. Butler is going to hit in the Majors, and with Gordon, Dayton Moore's long-term vision is beginning to come in better focus.

    8. Cameron Maybin, of: Tigers (A-)

    There have been a lot of positives about Cameron Maybin's season, his full season debut. Any teenager holding his own in such a difficult league is worthy of praise. Maybin has also been lucky, striking out at a percentage too high to keep his batting line as high as it is. a true five-tool player, the North Carolina outfielder is far more raw than he has shown this season. But underneath it all, the Tigers - who landed the top rated player in the 2006 draft - may have landed the top player in 2005.

    9. Phil Hughes, sp: Yankees (AA)
    10. Homer Bailey, sp: Reds (AA)

    Bailey was not an oversight in my listing of the top pitching prospects weeks ago, I told someone after that article that Bailey wouldn't rank high for me until he showed "consistent dominance." So, upon promotion, Bailey decided to go off, and currently has a 17 inning scoreless streak going at Double-A. He has earned his status as the game's 1A pitching prospect, especially after a dominating performance in Sunday's Futures Game.

    Hughes was not as good on Sunday, but his stuff was solid, and you could see the makings of a very good player. Unlike Bailey he won't always necessarily amaze a scout, but his polish is pretty unique for a player his age. It's a good sign that Hughes has already turned a corner in AA, and at this pace, he should be up to New York at some point next season.

    11. Jay Bruce, of: Reds (A-)

    Earlier in the season, I did a study on teenage hitters in the Midwest League. Needless to say, the list of success stories was a short one; the expectation level for this group is (as a result) low. The type of season that Jay Bruce is having so far is unprecedented. Bruce is hitting for power at rates that even Prince Fielder did not at such an age. And he's doing so with a decent-enough strikeout rate. On the shortlist of people that wouldn't surprise me to be atop this list in a year.

    12. Troy Tulowitzki, ss: Rockies (AA)

    The best combination of offensive and pure shortstop ability on this list. Drew isn't a bad defender, but neither his range or arm can match Tulo up the middle. While Troy is not the same caliber hitter, he is in the ballpark. Tulowitzki offers good power for a middle infielder, and he has the patience learned from three big program collegiate years. Tulowitzki's problem is a strikeout rate that is too high, his one drawback from being complete as a hitter.

    13. Andy Marte, 3b: Indians (AAA)

    Things were a struggle for Marte much into the season; he was drawing poor reviews and his numbers followed. Marte was a mess; Atlanta and Boston could not have appeared smarter. While it's too early to say Marte has turned a corner, he's done enough to salvage his status as a first tier prospect. We continue to hope that Marte will eventually mold into a superstar, turn his promising young seasons into a star-studded future. Such a breakout may never happen, but color me surprised if Marte doesn't still build a solid career.

    14. Carlos Quentin, of: Diamondbacks (AAA)

    At this point, the fact that Quentin has not been given an extended trial in the big leagues is discouraging. In the winter, we asked what would by so wrong about Andy Marte to make two (good) organizations trade him. Now, Quentin is bringing up similar questions. Why are the D-Backs so reluctant to give Quentin the keys? At this point, the outfielder has shown patience (while continuing his high HBP totals), a very good contact rate and gap power. Quentin has polish all over his bat, and soon, teams will have to truly investigate what Arizona's asking price is on their #3 prospect.

    15. Elijah Dukes, of: Devil Rays (AAA)

    It's both a good and a bad sign when the only flaw in a prospect's resume is make-up. We can now say definitively that the Devil Rays did not assign enough value towards make up, but how important is it? The future of Dukes will go a long way in answering this question, he's truly a player whose progress will only be hindered by himself. I won't be surprised if Dukes ends up the best player on this list; I won't be surprised if he is a complete bust. With Elijah Dukes, only the middle would be a surprise.

    16. Chris Young, of: Diamondbacks (AAA)

    Undervalued before the 2005 season, I thought Young started to become overvalued this winter. He hit for power well, steals bases and plays very good defense, but batting average is a substantial limiting factor. With that being said, Young has struck out in just 18.3% of his at-bats this season, a very positive number. Look for Young's .282 BABIP to improve in the second half, and with it, his batting average. While we'd like it for Young to be showing more on the bases to call him a five tool talent, giving him credit for the "Hitting for Contact" tool is a big step in the right direction.

    17. Andy LaRoche, 3b: Dodgers (AAA)

    Three straight Bryan Smith pre-2005 breakout selections, sweet! LaRoche answered a lot of questions this season when he turned his Southern League struggles from last season around, looking like a much more complete player. While in AA, the third baseman walked in about 15% of his plate appearances, rarely struck out, and showed some of the power he had in Vero Beach a year before. I wouldn't be surprised if LaRoche struggles a bit as a rookie in 2007, and in the same league as David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman he might not make many All-Star teams, but he's a big chip in the Dodgers reconstruction.

    18. Adam Jones, of: Mariners (AAA)
    19. Jeff Clement, c: Mariners (AAA)

    From a fantasy perspective, Jeff Clement is the Mariners best prospect. The list of power-hitting catchers at the Major League level is a short one, and a list Clement should be adding his name to by 2008. Despite his struggles coming back from injury in AAA, Clement has given the Mariners a lot of reason for optimism about their future backstop logjam. Given how quickly Clement should rise towards the top of any fantasy catcher list, keeper leaguers should have Clement ranked higher.

    From a baseball standpoint, Jones is the better prospect. On the bases and in the field, Jones is superior. He brings a unique degree of athleticism to the game - his transition to the outfield has gone seamlessly. And if Jones joins Choo and Ichiro in a Major League outfield, it's quite possible baseball will have never seen three stronger arms in the same outfield. At the plate, Jones has improved as the season has progressed, showing more patience and better contact skills.

    Jones shouldn't be a superstar on the Seattle Mariners, but he'll be a good one for a long time.

    20. Carlos Gonzalez, of: Diamondbacks (A+)

    The Diamondbacks have five prospects ranked higher than the top prospect of 19 organizations. Now really, is there any doubting that (scouting director) Mike Rizzo deserves a GM job somewhere? Gonzalez is not the best bet for success (Quentin) or player with the highest ceiling (Upton) in the organization, but he scores well in both categories. After hitting for solid power in the Midwest League last year, his huge slugging numbers in Lancaster should not come as a surprise. Gonzalez is better than the player he was last year, and not quite the player his numbers suggest currently. But with a few more walks and less strikeouts, the latter could very well change.

    21. Jose Tabata, of: Yankees (A-)

    Volatility. It scares me. If Tabata flames out, I look too quick to pull the trigger. But any lower, and you look stupid when he becomes a star. For now, his standing towards the back of the first tier will have to do, but it's a long way between now and 2009. Tabata has shown a solid contact rate, good doubles power, solid patience and good baserunning in his full season debut. And he's 17. Or is it, "But he's 17"?

    22. Ian Stewart, 3b: Rockies (AA)

    As you can tell, with his performance this season, I have dropped Felix Pie from the first tier. Ian Stewart, I have to say, is on the verge of getting the same treatment. While the third baseman is not posting Pie-type numbers in the Texas League, he has been pedestrian. For only so long can pedestrian be good enough. Eventually, we'll have to see that Stewart is going to turn those 26 doubles into home runs, and that he might be able to hit for average. For now, the hope of 2004 lingers enough to keep him in the top 25.

    23. Nick Adenhart, sp: Angels (A+)

    In a lot of ways, Adenhart is similar to Phil Hughes, a good blend of stuff and serious polish. Adenhart, for three months, has pitched far older than his age and level indicates. While he hasn't posted the double-digit-type K/9 numbers that many pitching prospects ranked higher and lower than him have, Adenhart offers poise that very few in the minors have ... for his age, only Hughes is close. The minor leagues continue to offer success story after success story for the Angels, who have quite the stable of young pitchers in Jered Weaver, Jose Arredondo and Adenhart to go with their accomplished pitching veterans.

    Part Two, with 24-75, coming tomorrow...

    WTNYJuly 06, 2006
    Mixing Youth
    By Bryan Smith

    Is it too early to mention the word 'dynasty' in Chicago? With one championship already in tow, the Sox appear to be the near-favorites to repeat in 2007. Even if they fall up short, the White Sox recent run has put fans in the stands, money in the payroll, and wins on the scoreboard. At the least, the Sox need to be thinking in dynasty terms.

    Kenny Williams now faces the difficult job of keeping the momentum going. He has set the bar high for himself and the organization, and the pressure will be on to continue winning games. This winter, he excelled in this role, taking chances that -- in the cases of Thome, Vazquez and Cintron -- are now paying off two-fold.

    We all remember the New York Yankees dynasty in the 1990s, one built on homegrown success with players like Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera. We have also seen the Yankees on a current world championship slide that I think every Sox fan would hope to avoid in a few years.

    So what is it that the Yankees failed to do? Well, with all kinds of money, the Yankees went out and started buying. They bought the perceived best in everything, and forgot what earned them championships - player development. Meshing in youth with proven veterans became a philosophy Brian Cashman discarded.

    I'm here to say the White Sox must avoid this trend. Kenny Williams must continue to fill certain slots with youth, making the difficult decisions of when to bring on a prospect, and when to trade him. Today, we'll look at the Sox Major League roster and minor league depth chart, and try to answer some of those questions.

    As an outsider, I don't think it's a stretch to say the current White Sox have two weaknesses: Scott Podsednik and the bullpen. Pods is currently manning a .698 OPS, and his defense has drawn criticism from Ozzie himself. As far as the bullpen goes, I think an aggregate 4.43 ERA was not what the Sox had in mind. These are the first places to look into the farm system.

    Williams toed the line of angering his team when he traded Aaron Rowand this winter, a good friend to many and a valued member of the clubhouse. Williams was lucky to have Brian Anderson ready and Jim Thome coming to lighten the blow, leaving no White Sox player too upset. However, along the backlash lines, I don't think the Sox can really afford to bench, trade or release Podsednik this season.

    Surely, the current lineup has enough firepower to withstand Podsednik's offensive inadequacies. But in the future, the Sox can't afford to depend on that. Luckily, at the end of the season, Podsednik is a free agent. Williams will be making no public relations risk when allowing Podsednik to ride into the sunset. And with that, left field will be open.

    Yes, the Sox will have money to potentially acquire a big name to fill Pod's small shoes. But since left field expectations are already low, and the Sox have potential replacements in Triple-A, I don't see the point. To me, this means Spring Training competition: Ryan Sweeney v. Jerry Owens v. Josh Fields.

    Fields? Fields. As a pro, the former Cowboy has yet to play a single position besides third base. The Sox have let this ride up to Triple-A, up to Fields' breakout as a prospect. Third base is already manned by someone sub-30, and will continue to be as Joe Crede just entered arbitration in 2006.

    One option is to trade Fields while his value is high, his prospect status seemingly at a pinnacle. But answer me this: if you were another GM, would you not see that Williams has a depth problem? If he leaves Fields at third base, he has no choice but to trade him, right? Wouldn't you then offer less for the 2004 first rounder?

    My belief is that Fields should begin playing left field now, for the rest of the season, and continue to do so in the Arizona Fall League. Next season, Fields should compete with the other current members of the Knights outfield for the left field spot, which will have been vacated by Scott Podsednik's exit from the lineup.

    Seeing as though defense is part of the White Sox brand, I can see you all wince at the thought of putting a never-before-outfielder in left. But we aren't talking CLee-type defense with Fields, to say that would be to underrate his athleticism. This was a Big 12 quarterback, my friends, and a player currently apt to steal a base. It would take him awhile to learn the reads, but with a half-season, the AFL, and Spring Training, I think he would be ready.

    Some would argue his bat already is. Fields has both 33 extra-base hits and walks in Triple-A, both in just 243 at-bats. He has stolen 13 bags in 17 attempts (there's that athleticism, again), and is sporting a .957 OPS. The power and patience are there, and he would add another home run threat to a lineup in Chicago chock-full of them. The question mark is his contact ability.

    With 78 strikeouts so far, Fields is whiffing in an atrocious 30+ percent of his at-bats. To maintain a .321 batting average, Fields has a ridiculous .448 batting average on balls in play. While his ability to hit the ball hard would indicate his BABIP should be higher than the average player, .448 is completely unsustainable. So, my concern about Josh Fields would be that in the Major Leagues, there's a good chance his batting average will look like Crede's did, in 2004.

    If not Fields, the other options would be Sweeney or Owens. Sweeney has been an organizational darling since Spring Training 2004; the field in Tucson still wet from the Sox' organizational drool. His results in the power department, however, have been lacking. This season, Sweeney's ability to hit a single has continued. He remains a fantastic contact ability, though his current strikeout rate (16.2%) is nearly 30 percent higher than it was in 2004-2005 (12.5%).

    Sweeney cannot, however, up his extra-base hit percentage. This season, Sweeney has continued to hit for more bases in about 6% of his at-bats, where Josh Fields is at 13.6%. Sweeney will likely be able to hit .280-.300 as a pro, but any slugging far above .400 would be a surprise. Given a walk rate that isn't bad but far from great, you're looking at about .280/.320/.380 next season. Note that I do think Sweeney has upside at this line, but it would take a philosophical change to learning to elevate the ball more that he has to undergo.

    The eldest of the group, Jerry Owens, is having the most struggles with Charlotte. His current .241/.305/.314 line is far from a career .757 OPS. But really, our focus should be that career OPS, likely headed to about .720. Can we truly expect Owens to out-perform Podsednik when he has merely done so at lower levels? Like Sweeney, Owens is a gifted contact hitter, and also one that can draw a walk. Add on his ability to steal bases at an awesome rate, and you can see why the Sox like him.

    But while Sweeney hits the ball hard, but into the ground, Owens doesn't really hit the ball hard at all. This explains a lower BABIP than Sweeney, and will be the cause of (far) lower 2006 predictions.

    The answer, as we've seen it, is Josh Fields. His conversion to left field should begin now, and the Sox should also be preparing Sweeney as a back-up plan. Owens, in this case, is odd-man out. The only other option, in my mind, is trading for a left fielder using one of the already-established starters. But we'll deal with the pitching staff in part two.

    Before I go, some quick thoughts on handling the rest of the offense:

  • Pierzynski: Extension was genius. Let contract play out, but seeing A.J. in a White Sox uniform until about 2010 would probably be best option.

  • Konerko and Thome: Re-signed for as long as you'll want them, most likely.

  • Iguchi and Dye: I think the Sox should begin thinking extension for Tadahito this winter. A pay raise for him wouldn't hurt the payroll. While Dye should be back in 2007, it should just be for the option price, and post-2007 they should re-evaluate when looking at Dye's age, the other free agent options, and the development of Aaron Cunningham and Anderson Gomes.

  • Uribe and Crede: The Sox should really maintain this left side for a long time, barring any Miguel Tejada-esque possibilities. They can be retained on arbitration in the near future, but around post-2007, Williams needs to begin considering an extension.

  • Anderson: He'll come around, Sox fans. Have faith, this is your CF going forward.

  • Mackowiak: I'd explore the trade market with him. Owens or Sweeney could take his bench spot with their ability to play CF, and I'd imagine Cintron can play 3B if needed. If not, let him walk post-08.

  • Ozuna and Cintron: I can't believe I'm advocating Ozuna's continued place on this team, but there is really no reason to not let these guys ride out their arbitation, and then evaluate.

  • Widger and Gload: If either demands any sort of premium, look for better options. At dirt-cheap, they work fine.

  • WTNYJuly 05, 2006
    Juggling Prospects
    By Bryan Smith

    No Major League draft prospect is more coveted than the five tool player. While baseball's highest level is littered with success stories, athletic outfielders have been among the largest busts of the first round. Many in baseball claim teams should adopt a safer approach in regards to the draft, taking safer picks from the college ranks.

    Rarely do these two paths intersect. And in the rare instances they do, the players are high commodities, with dreams of Barry Bonds dancing in the heads of scouting directors. This past June, Drew Stubbs was drafted in the top ten as the quintessential example of five-tool pipe dream mixed with collegiate intelligence.

    The 2005 draft offered three of these players. A half season into their full season debuts, their success comes as a small surprise to many around baseball. Two first round picks and one third rounder, all three players were highly desired for their speed, their defense in center, their ability to bat around the top of the order. While not prodigious in one of the five tools -- power -- all offered some hope of projectablity.

    All similar athletes with similar profiles, choosing an order is the perfect example of the difficulties -- and the silly subjectivity -- of ranking prospects. Gardner, Crowe, Ellsbury. Or is it Ellsbury, Gardner, Crowe? Today, we'll attempt to hash out which players belong in which order, and why.

    THE EARLY YEARS

    Athletic young outfielders are a commodity out of the preps, but to be a draft choice, there needs to be a ridiculous amount of tools or very good refinement. In 2002, Denard Span and Jeremy Hermida were examples of players that fit the bill. Trevor Crowe, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner were not. All three players had strong college commitments, and these commitments were founded upon a lack of high interest from Major League organizations. Crowe and Ellsbury were both second day picks, in that order, while Gardner did not get drafted.

    As far as college destinations go, the players picked programs that ranked in order of how they did in the draft. Crowe, the most talented of the group, went to Arizona. After not starting as a regular, Crowe ended his freshman season with 187 at-bats, and a .316 batting average. He didn't walk and showed little but gap power, but Crowe could steal bases and hit for average. He was exactly what the Wildcats bargained for.

    Ellsbury became a regular quicker at Oregon State, and produced more. A .330/.427/.510 line his freshman season turned a lot of scouts' heads, and suddenly Ellsbury was on the map for the 2005 draft. A great defender in centerfield, teams were drooling. On the opposite end, Brett Gardner wasn't drawing any notice, struggling in his first season at College of Charleston. His .284 batting average and 28 steals were both good, but Gardner struck out 50 times and had just 11 extra-base hits in 215 at-bats.

    As sophomores, Gardner and Crowe both did well in catching up to Ellsbury, and both owed their newfound success to the triple. Both players logged 9 triples on the year, as Crowe's slugging percentage went up to .576, Gardner just two points behind. Crowe also stole 26 bases in 27 chances, and showed an improved batting eye. He flew up follow lists. Gardner did the same, nearly hitting .400 in a fabulous display of future leadoff talents. While Gardner didn't boast the pedigree of Ellsbury and Crowe, all three entered their junior seasons separated by little.

    BEFORE AND AFTER

    It is not difficult to figure out why Trevor Crowe was the first of the three players drafted, taken 12th overall in 2005 by the Cleveland Indians. As a junior, Crowe exploded, jumping his triples total to 15, giving him 49 XBH in the small college season. His 36 walks showed a huge improvement in two seasons, and his 27 stolen bases with a career single season high. Crowe was for real, and the Indians loved the Oregon native.

    In Crowe's home state, Ellsbury was making noise as the Beavers had a Cindarella run to Omaha. Much of the team's press went towards Ellsbury, who seemed to act as the soul behind the team. Ellsbury struck out just 21 times in the leadoff role as a junior, hitting .406 en route to a first round draft choice by the Red Sox.

    Brett Gardner had the best numbers of the three players, but was not drafted until the end of the third round, by the Yankees. Playing in a worse conference, Gardner feasted on college pitching as a junior, hitting a ridiculous .447/.506/.571. Gardner also had great speed, stealing 38 bases. A quick look at his college numbers validated that the Yankees received good value on their choice.

    After signing quickly, Gardner and Ellsbury would play against each other in the New York-Penn short-season league. Unsurprisingly, Ellsbury was better than his peer, stealing four more bases while boasting a .097 advantage in the OPS column. Crowe was struggling, but the Indians had been aggressive with him, pushing their first round pick to the Sally League. His .326 slugging percentage raised question marks, and many began to wonder if the patient Ellsbury was perhaps the best of the bunch.

    GETTING HIGH-A

    The most discouraging aspect of Ellsbury's season has been his abandonment of the base on balls. Consistently one of the group's most patient hitters with aluminum bats, Jacoby's walk totals have gone down as Crowe's have gone up. While no team could scoff at a .384 on-base percentage from the leadoff role, an extended time treading 50-70 points behind his athletic peers will leave him in the dust.

    As mentioned, Crowe has turned things up this season. He is walking in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, which is more than a 15% increase since his freshman season at Arizona. In addition to his more patient approach, Crowe is also swiping more bags than ever. While not the fastest among the three players we are discussing, Crowe might be the most cognizant; his success rate is always among the highest.

    Brett Gardner is the surprise of the season, vaulting himself from an afterthought in this discussion to a name we must consider. The Yankees have been more aggressive with him than the approach we've seen by the Red Sox or Indians; Gardner has been promoted to Double-A after a good half-season with Tampa. During that time, the College of Charleston outfielder hit .323, swiping 30 bags while walking 43 times. His only problems were the lack of extra-base hits, and a strikeout rate that he hasn't sniffed for years. Still, given his successful time in Tampa, Gardner has a claim to be the Yankees 3rd prospect.

    CONCLUSIONS

    In terms of ceiling, and upon further inspection, there is little question which prospect reigns supreme: Crowe. His substantial power edge, intelligent baserunning and enhanced patience leave an extremely intriguing product. while his contact skills grade out as the group's worst, his combination of line drives and quick feet should give him high enough annual BABIP numbers to offset his swing-and-miss disadvantage.

    Conversely, Ellsbury is the contact hitter of the group. His 12.1 K% is fantastic, and down the road, should yield even higher batting averages than Ellsbury is even showing. The power has been the question mark with Ellsbury, no longer going extra bases with a wooden bat. This is a trait that is hard to project being a plus at this point, limiting Ellsbury to a leadoff role down the line. If he fails in leadoff, there is no real backdrop.

    However, ranking prospects is about comparing a prospect's upside with the likelihood he reaches it. Where Ellsbury falls short in terms of ceiling, he may be the group's surest thing. One statement that I'm confident in making is that Brett Gardner is the largest question mark. This is no particular damnation of Gardner, he's up against two good bets.

    My reasoning for saying this is that in terms of contact rates, Crowe and Gardner are toss-ups for who is worst. Both striking out at 21-22% rates this season, I mentioned Crowe as the worst contact hitter because he showed a higher aptitude for whiffs in most of college. Most, except a freshman season in which Gardner struck out 50 times. Plus, while Crowe leans back on his power as a trade-off, Gardner remains nothing more than a gap-power hitter.

    Because of low power totals, it's difficult to project Ellsbury or Gardner hitting anywhere but atop an order. In comparing their skill sets, I have Ellsbury as the player more likely to hit for average (this season's difference be damned), while Gardner should make up for that with higher walk rates. Similar players both on the bases and in the field, it all comes down to a question of power. And for every season except their sophomore year, Ellsbury has showed more power than Gardner. Narrowly, he's the better prospect.

    For the last four seasons, three prospects with one profile have been among high profile baseball circles. This season, as they enter prospect rankings, we know pretty much what most draft boards did a year ago (and recruiters years before that): Crowe, Ellsbury, Gardner.

    WTNYJune 30, 2006
    Gazing Through Binoculars (Part 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    Pitching dominated the discussion surrounding the 2006 draft, as a record was almost broken with the number of pitchers selected in the first round. On Tuesday, we noted that position players will be back in style on the college ranks next year.

    Today, I'm here to say we won't have to compromise simultaneously and see a letdown in the arms category.

    A year before the draft, I noted Andrew Miller as a top guy, mentioning the worst teams were in the 'AM race.' A big lefthander with a long profile, Miller had control issues but the ability to strike out players in bunches. Experience and projectablity don't mesh often. They did in 2006, and they will in 2007.

    While I'm no longer as confident as I was in April, David Price is right in the mix to be named the top pick in a year. A Vanderbilt lefthander, Price was a highly thought of prep arm, and went on to strike out 92 in 69 innings his freshman season. Early season dominance wore Price out as the year went on, but his season ending marks -- 3.81 ERA, 84 H/104 IP, 147 K/38 BB -- still were good enough to be named a Golden Spikes finalist.

    Expect Price to gain more consideration for the award next season, as he'll surely spend the summer and fall working on endurance. If he makes strides in that category like he did control a year ago, Price should be the favorite to go 1-1. However, he faces worthy opponents in (high schoolers) Mike Main and Robert Stock, as well as (top collegiate position player) Matt Wieters.

    Like Wieters, Price doesn't face a lot of competition for the king of the collegiate pitching mountain. However, there are a host of arms that will belong in the first round. Fellow hard-throwing SEC southpaw Nick Schmidt might be the best of the second tier, and his sophomore season was better than Price's in the same environment. In 108.2 innings, Schmidt struck out 135 while allowing just 80 hits. His breaking pitch is fantastic; his control (48 walks) is not.

    Control is Wes Roemer's strength, and while he won't go in the top ten, Roemer went a far way in assuring himself a place in the first round this spring. A worthy candidate for the Player of the Year award, Roemer's 145/7 K-BB rate never fails to look like a misprint. His stuff isn't great, and his inning totals are high, but when working in the low 90s with a good slider (which he does often), Roemer is undoubtedly worthy of a top 30 selection.

    Also pitching for a big program on Friday nights, I am a big fan of Sean Morgan, the righthander at Tulane. Home run prone, Morgan's 3.51 ERA is scary, especially considering the ballpark that Tulane played in this season. However, he has the strikeouts (125) and control (39 walks) to merit being in the discussion. Morgan will have to minimize the extra-base hits he allows next season, his slugging against (.370 in 2006) will go a long way in determining his draft position.

    Expect the number of two-way players drafted as pitchers drafted in the first round to double between 2006 and 2007; for one Brad Lincoln, next year's class offers Sean Doolittle (Virginia) and Joe Savery (Rice). Oh, and unlike Lincoln, these two are southpaws. I'm far higher on Doolittle, his sub-2.00 ERA and amazing set of peripherals speaks volumes to his talent, big pitching park be damned. Expect him to lead Team USA this summer.

    I'm a bit more wary of Savery, who had shoulder tendinitis minimize his innings total this season. Even when healthy in the postseason, Rice rarely turned to Savery - a bad indicator. As is his status as a pitcher for the Rice program, so take his 129 Freshman strikeouts with a grain of salt. Savery's potential should allow him to go top 15 (possibly top five), but he'll come with as many caveats as anyone.

    On Tuesday, we talked about the lack of shortstops in the '06 draft. From a pitching standpoint, the draft also lacked closers, the growing trend that didn't really offer a first round talent this season. That will change next year, as Josh Fields is great in that role for Georgia. Teams will love his walk rate (11 BB in 50 IP), his strikeouts (56), and his miniscule slugging against (.257). Barring injury, he'll go in the first round next year.

    In the northern Midwest, a pair of arms had lackluster seasons after dynamite freshman campaigns, and remain on the watch list. John Ely was just OK at Miami of Ohio, but the lefthander did allow 76 hits in 75.2 innings en route to a 3.57 ERA. He is one to watch, as is Ben Snyder from Ball State. Yes, his 4.45 ERA is ugly, but Snyder showed what he could do in regionals, beating top seeded Kentucky by allowing just one earned run in 8 innings.

    Last for potential first rounders, I want to mention a guy that could be next season's Jeff Samardzija. While NC State righthander Andrew Brackman has stayed away from the football field, the 6-10 pitcher is a good frontcourt player for the Wolfpack. Unprepared for his sophomore season on the mound thanks to basketball, Brackman posted a 6.35 ERA in 28.1 innings before shutting it down. If he's smart, Brackman will realize where he has the most potential (baseball), and stick with it.

    Finally, we should expect that summer performances will help pitcher's stocks next June, so I wanted to finish with a few potential Cape Cod League stars. Remember, without their summer in the Cape, guys like Brandon Morrow or Dave Huff would have not been so highly thought of.

    The name I've been most outwardly floating around to people is Connor Graham, a righthander from Miami of Ohio. Graham is big (6-7, 240), and inconsistent, but could thrive in the closer's role this summer. He let his first run of the season this week, so don't expect a Craig Hansen summer. But do expect two Redhawks to be battling for draft position in 2007.

    Another arm to look out for, though one I know less about, is Texas A&M righthander Chance Corgan (Update: Corgan transferred to TCU on May 31). Expected to be in the weekend rotation this spring, Corgan didn't get a ton of innings for the Aggies. In two starts out east, Corgan is making up for lost time, taking the league lead in strikeouts (19 - which he has since lost) in two scoreless starts spanning 14.1 innings. A big 2007 spring in the MWC could push Corgan way up draft boards.

    This year's draft saw Steven Wright be taken high after a great summer closing at the Cape, and a good spring starting for Hawaii. Many believe the Wright they saw in short outings represents his future, despite his spring. Two potential arms that could face the same comments are Dan McDonald (Seton Hall) and Sam Demel (TCU). Demel has yet to allow a run in seven appearances (11 K in 7 IP), while McDonald has done him one better, not allowing a hit or walk in six scoreless innings (11 K).

    Of course, these are just a few names that have been blips on a few radars this season. There will be a lot more examples of this during the summer, and I will try to stay abreast on each name that floats my way.

    WTNYJune 27, 2006
    Gazing Through Binoculars
    By Bryan Smith

    Scouts were ready to turn the page. After spending a year preparing for one of the weakest draft classes in years, the page has been turned on the 2006 June Amateur Draft. With its exit go complaints about star power and depth; the 2007 draft offers both.

    In fact, early returns on the 2007 draft promise one of the better classes in years, competing with 2004 and 2001 for the decade's best. The junior high school class had a fantastic season, and college sophomores around the country left their imprints in the minds of scouts.

    As summer and showcase season gets underway, I wanted to allow you the first look at the offerings of the 2007 draft. Today, we'll look at the position players whose aluminum bats will be followed next spring, and Friday, we'll look at the class of pitchers.

    Presently, Matt Wieters stands atop the college position player list, and is in the mix to be the first college player drafted with David Price. Both Georgia Tech's catcher and closer, Wieters showed with 5 postseason home runs that he was destined to swing the bat. Expect whichever team drafts him to project him as a hitter.

    They will have a hard time, however, projecting a position. Currently a catcher, Wieters' arm would probably rank in the utmost tier of baseball at the Major League level. Given a top-flight career as a hurler, he also should call games and handle pitchers well. So what's the problem? Height.

    The tallest catcher in Major League history was Larry McLean, standing 6-5. In 2004, Joe Sheehan wrote an article showing the problems tall catchers have faced at the big league level. Sandy Alomar Jr. is the perfect example. If Wieters was to make the Majors as a catcher, and assuming his listed height is the truth, he would pass McLean to top the list. When you're talking about multi-million dollar bonuses, biases can scare teams off, ask Tim Lincecum.

    Plain and simple, Wieters offers the best bat in the 2007 draft class. But to draft him in the top five, a team would have to ask themselves whether such a high pick should be used on a future first baseman. While Wieters might make the Majors as a catcher, it's doubtful he would last too long there.

    Catching feasibility is a problem with another projected first rounder, Tennessee's J.P. Arencibia. The switch hitter started his ascension up draft lists as a catcher, when he was one of the Vols' best bats in their Luke Hochevar-powered College World Series run. While success in Knoxville has stalled since the exit of Hochevar, Iorg and Headley, Arencibia remains a highly thought of prospect.

    While Arencibia could stand to be more patient at the plate, his power projects well at the big league level. His defense, however, does not. Arencibia lacks athleticism; his mobility behind the plate is greatly in question. Teams will still take him as a catcher with the pipe dream that he will last there, but to do so, he'll have to hit like Victor Martinez. Because he won't field much better.

    Seeing as though Evan Longoria and Bill Rowell both should end up at the hot corner, the lack of shortstops in the 2006 draft was unprecedented. The most important position on the defensive spectrum was completely unaccounted for. That will change next year, as currently three college shortstops project as first rounders: Todd Frazier (Rutgers), Josh Horton (UNC) and Zack Cozart (Mississippi).

    Cozart is the best shortstop in the group, a well-skilled player defensively that won't have to think about changing positions. At the plate there are some questions, and they start with Cozart's inability to draw a walk. However, his contact rates are the best in the group, and he hit for more power than Horton did on the year. Add enough quickness to steal a base, and he seems a top 15 pick.

    The title for best hitter is one to be wrestled over, depending on who you talk to. I think the choice is Frazier, who has superior statistics despite playing in a conference (Big East) that is far from the ACC's caliber. Still, Frazier is a very disciplined hitter who shows the most power of the group. His strikeout rates indicate he might be the worst hitter-for-average, but if he can stay at short (and he should, though third base is possible), his power will make up for it and then some.

    Horton is very interesting, a player that should make for a safe choice in some respects, a risky one in others. At the plate, Horton is fantastic, he has a beautiful left-handed stroke that allowed him to hit .400+ in the regular season. He is a patient hitter, and very intelligent on the basepaths. His pop will play in the middle infield. The question, however, is whether his glove will. Horton made 23 errors on the season; he's as mistake-prone as they come. But the athleticism is there, undoubtedly, leaving some to think he could stick. My guess? Second base, where the bat still profiles as above average.

    While it's likely that more players will rise to the level in the next year, I feel comfortable proclaiming only two more hitters as 2007 first rounders: Corey Brown (Oklahoma State) and Beau Mills (Fresno State). Both have fantastic bats; two of the best power hitters available.

    Brown had a scholarship offer rescinded from Virginia after his senior season in which he pleaded guilty to felony battery. The incident stemmed from a sexual encounter with an underage girl. Questions about this incident will follow Brown around during his junior season, as scouts will be forced to answer whether his head is in the right place for seven figures. Mills will also have to answer those questions, though his problems are in the classroom, not the police blotter. FSU's best hitter in 2006, Mills was suspended for the postseason after failing to meet academic standards.

    On the field, both are very gifted players. Brown is the best five tool player that college baseball will offer in 2007, a center fielder that had 30 extra-base hits and 14 stolen bases in 2006. He walks and strikes out at insane rates, passing 40 in both categories on the season.

    Mills, a third baseman, is the most powerful hitter in the draft. In just 200 at-bats, Mills had 35 extra-base hits on the season, and could very well project to hit 30 HR annually in the pros. His contact rate is fine (31 K), but questions about his patience (just 17 BB) and athleticism will be his only deterrent.

    Finally, I want to finish today talking about one player that I think belongs in the mix for the first round, though his actual status is up in the air. Damon Sublett, of Wichita State, won the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year award, despite missing two months with a broken hand. Why? Well, his two-way numbers are about as good as it gets.

    In two years at Wichita State, Sublett has yet to allow a run on the mound. He is the Shockers' periodic closer, and his K/9 rate is above 15. However, his stuff is just a tick above average as a pitcher, so it appears that he will end up drafted as a hitter. Oh yeah, his numbers there are pretty good, too.

    In just 165 at-bats on the season, Sublett had 20 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. He walked 31 times, and stole 12 bases while playing second base. The only question is Sublett's ability to make contact, as he whiffed 34 times on the season. However, given his awesome performance in every other column, this shouldn't hold Sublett back.

    It also makes little sense to keep Sublett at second, given an arm that has done such damage off the college mound. The team that drafts Sublett has a player who has the athleticism to play either shortstop or center in the Majors, which helps his value even more. Sublett belongs in the first round, and with a healthy season in 2007, expect him to get there.

    * * * * *

    Sleeper: Sergio Miranda, Virginia Commonwealth. Another shortstop in a loaded class, Miranda hit .400 this season while named the Colonial American Association's defensive player of the year. Miranda has shown good contact abilties at VCU, and has continued to do so in his first few games in the Cape Cod League, not striking out through his first seven games. However, Miranda will have to prove he has (at least) gap power to get drafted highly.

    Deep Sleeper: Curt Smith (Maine). I saw Smith play at the Chapel Hill regional a few weeks ago, and I came away very impressed. A shortstop from Curacao, Smith's body type envokes instant comparisons to Deivi Cruz. His play supports it, and I think he could have a similar career under the right scenario. He won't go highly in the 2007 draft, I don't think, but I'll support the pick wherever he ends up.

    Those to look out for: Danny Payne (GTech), Matt Rizzotti (Manhattan), Chad Flack (UNC), Warren McFadden (Tulane), Taylor Harbin (Clemson), Michael Taylor (Stanford), Andrew Romine (ASU), Ryan Wehrle (Nebraska), Kellen Kulbacki (James Madison), Brian Friday (Rice).

    WTNYJune 21, 2006
    Stepping Back
    By Bryan Smith

    "The Chicago Cubs have traded the 13th pick in the 2006 Major League draft to the Boston Red Sox, in addition to their fifth round selection for the Red Sox 28th and 44th overall picks. With the 13th pick in the 2006 draft, the Red Sox select Daniel Bard, a righthander from the University of North Carolina."

    In a perfect world, Bud Selig would have stepped up to ESPN's microphone in New York with those words on June 6. The Cubs would have then gone on to take Jeff Samardzija with the 28th pick, and Tyler Colvin in the 44th slot. Boston, at 27, would have still landed their man, Jason Place.

    And you know what? No pundit would have complained.

    Thanks to a series of questionable free agent signings the previous winter, the Cubs entered their first Tim Wilken-led draft without a second, third or fourth round selection. The Cubs were staring right at one talented player, and then waiting 136 to start shooting darts at fringe picks.

    It is then, you can bet, that Wilken analyzed the market. He realized the player he liked in the first round - assuming certain players didn't fall - would slip: there had been eight million dollar associations with his name. As the draft neared, Wilken realized the player his eyes had fallen in love would be around at 149.

    Suddenly, thanks to baseball's lackluster slotting system, the Cubs were eyeing two perceived talents instead of one. Budget concerns would limit Wilken in the 13-hole; he would have to pick a player willing to sign for "slot." The Cubs had set aside quite a bit of money for the fifth round; they couldn't afford top dollar at 13.

    As far as slot players, Wilken had a favorite, too. Maybe it's true - that even if money wasn't an issue, Tyler Colvin would have been the Cubs man. But, ignoring that, it's fairly obvious (in hindsight) that a belief in Jeff Samardzija triggered the selection of Colvin. Wilken saw the market, planned for it, and in return, got his men.

    The public has torn apart the Cubs draft, both the philosophy behind it as well as the individual players. After recently reading enough to reach my boiling point, I wanted to make one fact clear: criticizing a draft before any player takes the field is laughable. Doing so is to disrespect trained professionals. Scouts know far more in the days before, during and after draft day than writers could ever aspire to.

    If a scout takes a player higher than expected, intelligent criticism is usually lacking. A journalist's job, in this situation, should be instead to search for the reason the scout fell more in love with the player than his peers. In a recent article at Baseball America, we find out a snippet of what attracted the Cubs to Samardzija:

    Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken indicated the Cubs and Orioles both saw Samardzija at his best in an outing during the Big East Conference tournament. Wilken said Samardzija repeatedly pumped his fastball into the 97-99 mph range, up significantly from the regular season, when he sat in the 91-94 mph range. Samardzija showed a much better slider in that outing, using a higher arm slot to stay on top of the pitch better.

    Those that criticize the Samardzija signing likely didn't see Jeff that day. If they did, it was likely without the Stalker radar readings the Cubs had access to.

    Frustration about the draft needs to be properly channeled - to those in charge of the process. The way in which the draft is currently run, without any real foresight, is ludicrous. Not only has baseball prolonged an opportunity at a successful venture, but they have made success less likely by creating a poor product. The intrigue of a good draft is in the trades, in the order of the players go ... arranged by talent. Baseball offers no trades, and the draft order is sometimes as dependent upon bonus demands as talent.

    Until we see changes -- which might be forced to wait until a commissioner change -- than we cannot properly have a draft day grading system. The readers want it, but to do so would be foolish. In a battle of baseball wit, a scout beats a writer.

    I do, however, believe that you can rate a draft as being good. In doing so, a writer should either applaud the philosophy behind the draft, or the selection of certain players due to personal experience. I recently praised the Washington Nationals draft, and have told some I think it's the best draft in the Majors. Am I a big believer in Chris Marrero, Colten Willems or Sean Black? No, not especially. But for the Nats, a team yet to find an identity, a rebuilding process is essential. Spending four picks on players that were considered top round talent, even when calculating their risks, is a smart way to approach the draft.

    So they get credit from me. I also loved the Boston Red Sox draft, but for a different reason. I had been present to watch Daniel Bard in his regional start, and afterwards, I believed. Bard threw in the mid 90s with ease that I didn't see in many young pitchers, and his breaking pitch was close. I was bound to like the draft of whoever selected him. When the Red Sox added Masterson, their "grade" was sealed in my eyes. I also believed in Kent Bonham's analysis on this site, and that analysis makes Masterson's case so clear.

    Those are two examples of being supportive towards draft classes. In neither case did I disagree with a scouting director, a professional of infinite more training and resources. Clapping your hands at a golf course is acceptable, loudly booing is not.

    For the record, I am not a Jeff Samardzija believer. While I understand the praises he draws for his body, athleticism and make-up, that isn't enough for me. I would argue his name has been built up through a football forum, and that besides a fastball that lights up radar guns, he offers little else on the field. And I didn't rank Tyler Colvin in my draft day top 40. Part of it was probably oversight, but there is very little about the outfielder that jumps out at you. Nothing, definitively nothing, screams first rounder.

    But, it just doesn't make sense to bash the Cubs draft. Even if you don't believe, Tim Wilken and his staff does. Wilken is among the most respected directors in the business, as much a part of the Blue Jays success this season as any non-player around the team. I don't see Samardzija and think $7.25 million is a sensible number, but under what authority do I have to criticize Wilken? Question the organization, fine, but don't condemn them.

    Until baseball makes changes at the top, we can't sufficiently give teams post-draft grades. Simple. I think we can opine who made out the best, but without trades and a more sensible slotting system, we can't pick out the worst.

    Scouts have done more for the game of baseball than any other profession. Behind every player is a scouting story, a believer that wasn't surprised the day they reached the Major Leagues. I can rest in my armchair and praise the Giants for grabbing Lance Salsgiver in the 39th round -- I mean, he hit well in the Cape! -- but is it logical to bash 29 other teams for not taking him in the 38th?

    Tim Wilken (and co.) made a draft day gamble that Samardzija and Colvin (and trust me, in that order) represent first and second round value. We can disagree, but at some point, you have to respect that they believe enough to back their bet with more than eight million dollars.

    It's more likely than not that Jeff Samardzija never lives up to his $7.25 million billing. That the Cubs hear a lot of "I told you so"s for his draft. Until Jim Hendry has the option to trade down, or we have numerical evidence to support it, we simply can't fault his staff for taking the guys they believe in right now.

    WTNYJune 20, 2006
    Backpedaling
    By Bryan Smith

    With each box score and every game, the search continues. The next breakout prospect. We try to look under every rock to find them, with some analyzing nearly every prospect en route to saying, "I knew about this guy first."

    While that search drives prospect mavens, I'm not sure we spend enough time on the opposite. Each season, dozens of prospects take giant steps back. Failure is the name of minor league baseball; most prospects never see time in the Majors. So rather than address those players moving backwards, we discard them for the flavor of the week.

    I don't have scouting information on these guys, so I couldn't tell you the exact cause for 2006 concern. But after scouring through league statistics, and beginning to rework my top 75 for the midseason ranking, here are 8 guys in danger of slipping:

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C - Atlanta Braves: .210/.319/.320.

    We didn't see this coming. Saltalamacchia flew up prospect lists last season when he showed a good amount of hitting in one of the minors' most difficult hitters parks. Myrtle Beach is hellish on bats, and while AA Mississippi is no cake walk, we should have been seeing improvements upon 2005 numbers, not this giant step back. The word has continued to be that Jarrod has altered his focus to defense this season, but it would be unfortunate if this came at the expense of his bat.

    Brian McCann is very well thought of in Atlanta, and their slew of young catching was always considered a good problem. Because, at worst, if one of the players didn't make it, another player would be on the horizon. McCann seems to have made it in Atlanta, while Salty seems clueless in AA. He could turn things around with a good second half and a big 2007, but he didn't capitalize upon his opportunity to become a top ten prospect and push past McCann.

    Thomas Diamond, SP - Texas Rangers: 4.19 ERA, 81 K / 45 BB.

    In actuality, Diamond's numbers are not that bad this season. His prospect status is not in the toilet, his Major League hopes are still strong. But they aren't unchanged. After his dominant run through the Cal League in 2005, harder times were met in Frisco. The reason: increased walks, to the tune of a 4.96 BB/9, the highest of his career. Until now. After walking just 44 players in his first three stops, spanning nearly 130 innings, Diamond has 45 walks in 66.2 innings this season. His current 6.08 BB/9 matches the number he put up as a freshman at New Orleans.

    Diamond has continued to show good stuff, not allowing very many hits and still maintaining a good strike out rate. But with his pitcher's body, we used to project a future innings eater with ease. However, in a season where pitching prospects are graduating to the Majors at huge rates, Diamond has been unable to capitalize and become one of the better prospects left. Instead, he's made us wonder: are we looking at a future reliever?

    Eric Duncan, 1B - New York Yankees: .209/.279/.255.

    Note the numbers listed above is just Duncan's performance in AAA, where he spent the beginning of the season before a demotion two weeks ago. Back in AA, Duncan is still relatively young for the league, but he has seen Eastern League pitching a time or two. Duncan has not had a very good season in 2 years, but salvaged his prospect status last season with a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. There are different theories as to why he hit so well there, but with this season, that should all be forgotten.

    The most disconcerting of Duncan's numbers this year is his Isolated Power, which wasn't even .050 in more than 100 at-bats in Columbus. We worry that Delmon Young hasn't really shown any power in 2006, but what about Duncan? While he has hit two home runs and four doubles since being demoted, where were the hard hit balls in Columbus? Always a prospect whose stock was actively watched by those on the trade market, expect other organizations to pass on Duncan this season.

    Garrett Mock, SP - Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.92 ERA, 79 K / 34 BB.

    Mock represents one of the stones that I turned in the search for breakout prospects; regrettably, he was on my preseason breakout list. One of the Cal League's most prolific strikeout arms last season, Mock's numbers were depleted by horrible hit rates that I opined was caused by his .334 BABIP. While some of that may be true, it is now clearer that Mock is just pretty darn hittable, as his H/9 is approaching 10 again this season. Excuses can be made in California, but if we consider AA to be the litmus test, Mock has failed thus far.

    Also lending to some problems this season are some new found control problems. Mock's 34 walks this season are one more than his total from last season, over 174.1 innings. I liked Garrett because if the BABIP rate ever went his way, it seemed as if all the other pieces were in place. Good control, the ability to strike guys out and consume innings. But when one of those disappears, and Mock continues to be hit, his prospect status fades. The Diamondbacks newfound pitching focus could very well leave Mock in the dust.

    Wes Bankston, 1B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays: .295/.342/.429.

    Surely, I will get hate mail for making this my Devil Ray selection. However, I just don't see that Delmon Young or Elijah Dukes has a depleted prospect status. Dukes, in fact, was really rising up my list before his latest suspension. And Young just hasn't been able to play baseball, until yesterday, so let's wait a little while before we give up on these guys for make-up issues. Instead, let's focus on the situation of Wes Bankston, who has not quite turned a corner in AA Montgomery.

    Tampa didn't like that Bankston only offered the first base position for managers, so in Spring Training, the team thought to try him at the hot corner. While it looked, at times, like he might take to the position, the conversion overall didn't go so well. This is a first baseman. However, this season, he isn't showing the power or patience of one. While, granted, injuries have limited Bankston's productivity this season; we haven't seen enough promise of a future above-average corner player. Unfortunately for Bankston, his bat had been all he had left.

    Chris Volstad, SP - Florida Marlins: 4.05 ERA, 65 K / 20 BB.

    Before last season's draft, I watched all the video and heard the reports. I was convinced Volstad was the top prep pitcher in the draft, all 6-7 of him. But now, not even three months into the season, I'm not sure Mark Pawelek (not yet to throw a pitch) isn't the better prospect. Volstad doesn't even have top honors on his team, though the Greensboro rotation does rival the best low-A rotations ever. 'Polish' is an odd term in ranking prospects, and one that comes up often with players that have good control. Volstad, it will be said, has good polish.

    But then why, I might ask, is Volstad not a polished-enough pitcher to prevent so many hits? Why are his strikeout numbers already in the toilet? The stuff is the same as it ever was, for the most part. But perhaps the fastball has straightened out, or his curve has not proven to be an out pitch. Whether it is Volstad's approach to hitters or his movement, big changes need to be made this winter. His cache of the first prep pitcher from the 2005 draft will lengthen his half-life, even if his peers go running past during that time.

    Brad Harman, SS - Philadelphia Phillies: .237/.326/.310.

    Another breakout selection, another misstep. After the World Baseball Classic, my opinion of Harman had reached an all-time high. I have no doubt that, had I revised my prospect rankings then, I would have found a place for him in the honorable mention. However, it seems like I really missed the boat with this kid. After leading the Australian team in hitting before they were ousted, Harman has been unable to hit in the Florida State League this season. Doing so is an uneasy task for a player with Harman's limited profile, but there really isn't much to pick from as positive here.

    Harman has shown very little power, even of the gap variety, with just 13 extra=base hits this season. His 51 strikeouts are on their way to triple digits, lending to a batting average that has needed some recent success to climb from the Mendoza line. Defensive question marks continue to surround the Aussie. All that's left is a good walk rate, enough for a hope that his bat returns in the Eastern League. Harman is too young for his prospect status to be dead, but considering it was never very alive in world's outside of my brain, this season has really been a struggle.

    Tyler Clippard, SP - New York Yankees: 5.16 ERA, 68 K / 28 BB.

    Things have been a struggle for Clippard this season, his ERA higher than his hit rate suggests that it should be. The reason, as we have learned from the Hardball Times extensive coverage on the batted ball, is that EL hitters are likely hitting the ball very hard. We always knew that Clippard had a good curveball, a pitch that has always been enough to garner a good amount of strikeouts. We knew he always had good control, lending to positive walk rates for much of his career. Put those together, and many people thought you had the start of a pitching prospect.

    But it's hard to be truly successful without a fastball. Clippard is a solid young pitcher, and his good control helps, but there just isn't enough juice on the fastball. It is going to, consistently, get hit hard. Add in the fact that a curveball-happy pitcher tends to hang a lot of pitches, and Clippard's future doesn't shine so bright. Like Duncan, you can bet Clippard won't be the most sought after Yankee prospect this July.

    WTNYJune 16, 2006
    Back to Omaha
    By Bryan Smith

    Last weekend offered the finest college baseball has to offer. If the sport ever needs a selling point, last weekend may have been that.

    No game better shows this than the second game of the UNC-Bama super regional. Freshman Tommy Hunter had shut down the Tar Heels for 7 innings, allowing just two runs and giving his club a 4-2 lead. He was over 90 pitches, nearing in on 100, and stupidly, he was left in the game. After allowing two baserunners, North Carolina first baseman Chad Flack hit a three run home run, ruining both Hunter's day and stat line.

    But the Tide was not to be outdone, as they had their own heroics when down 6-4 in the ninth. With UNC closer Andrew Carignan in the game, who had previously allowed just one extra-base hit, the home team quickly got two baserunners on. And then freshman Alex Avila provided his own heroics, giving Bama a go-ahead home run in the most dramatic of ways.

    Well, not quite the most dramatic. That honor belongs to Flack, who in the bottom of the ninth hit his second home run of the game, a two-run shot that walked the Heels off and into Omaha. Such a dramatic ending has not been seen on a mainstream stage in a long time; in fact, few endings rival that game's madness.

    College baseball has a lot to offer, and drama might be at the top. Please readers, this weekend watch the College World Series, as it will provide as much intrigue in a couple days as the MLB playoffs will in a month. For those just entering collegiate baseball fandom, here's a quick primer of the team's involved...

    Oregon State

    Best Position Player: Cole Gillespie.

    Best Pitcher: Jonah Nickerson.

    Largest Strength: Top-heavy pitching staff. Arms rule in Omaha, and if that proves true, the Beavers are in a position to succeed. While I chose Nickerson as the Beavers' best arm, it's close, with Dallas Buck and Kevin Gunderson all close. Not only are all three good arms and battle-tested, but they have the experience of pitching in games of this kind; Oregon State is the lone team returning to Omaha after 2005.

    Beyond the big three pitchers, the third starter (Gunderson is the closer), Mike Stutes is really good. As is the club's set-up man, Eddie Kunz. With these five pitchers, the Beavers will always be a danger to whomever they face. If they can advance to the championship series, these five become the reason they should be favored.

    Largest weakness: Depth. Head coach Pat Casey deserves all the credit in the world for Oregon State's two year run, developing a program where people weren't sure it could be developed. This is no small feat. Because of this big turnaround and top-heavy team, Casey's recruiting has only been able to go so far. The five pitchers mentioned were much of the reason for the team's relatively low 3.43 team ERA, and pitched about 75% of the club's innings. Will five guys pitch the Beavers to victory?

    In addition to this, we don't know if Oregon State has the bat's to contend. Their .130 ISO is the lowest of the eight teams, edging fellow West Coast club Cal State Fullerton. While Cole Gillespie had an award-winning season, what else is there to offer? Barney, Rowe and Canham are all good, but if that's all, you have to worry about this team's chances at hitting into a championship.

    Miami

    Best Position Player: Jemile Weeks.

    Best Pitcher: Chris Perez.

    Largest Strength: Momentum. Miami was not considered a team likely to advance to Omaha, and they enter as the largest underdogs. While the other 7 teams are in Boyd Nation's top 10 in ISR, Miami stands at 23. Since winning just one game in the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes have won five of their last 6, outscoring their opponents 59-28 during that stretch. If any team is happy to be here, it's Miami.

    And that isn't to say they don't have the talent to be here. Their team batting average is third of the club's that advanced, and their .239 opponents' average against is nothing to laugh at. They basically stand in the middle of most of the categories, but at the top of none. Jon Jay, Weeks and Perez provide star power to a team that could make for the best storyline of the tournament.

    Largest weakness: Starting pitching. The team knows who is getting the ball in the first inning in Omaha, they just don't know if they can trust them. The combination of Carlos Gutierrez, Manny Miguelez and Scott Maine made 53 starts this year, the rest of the team just 10. However, it isn't as if they particularly earned their spots, combining for a 4.44 ERA. Their jobs are easy: get the ball to Danny Gil and Chris Perez. Their ability to do so will dictate their success.

    Georgia

    Best Position Player: Joey Side.

    Best Pitcher: Josh Fields.

    Largest Strength: Umm ... perhaps hitting? While Miami is the biggest surprise in Omaha, Georgia might receive my vote for the least talented team. While they get points for a high team batting average, the club's .384 OBP is among the lowest in Omaha. Their .169 ISO is in the middle of the pack. More than anything else, Georgia has a middle of the order that is very dangerous, including Side and Josh Morris. Pitching around these two players will be essential for every club, as after that, Gordon Beckham (freshman) might be the only bat that can truly hurt you.

    Georgia got through a good group to get here, so they do belong. I'm just not sure they'll contend.

    Largest weakness: Pitching, pitching, pitching, by a long shot. This club has the worst ERA (4.76) and opponents' average (.277) left in the tournament, which doesn't bode well for a first round match-up with Rice. There are some good names at the top, notably Josh Fields and Rip Warren, two relievers primarily in the bullpen. Junior Brooks Brown gained some first round interest this June, but his collegiate results have been up and down. If he gets hot, his arm is in the mix too.

    After that, however, things get ugly. The problem is the team will throw Brown against Rice in the opener, a game in which they are substantial (and deservedly) underdogs. After that, what will they have left in the tank for game two, presumably against Miami? Perhaps Warren gets the start, but if not, there is not a single exciting option on the team.

    Rice

    Best Position Player: Josh Rodriguez.

    Best Pitcher: Eddie Degerman.

    Largest Strength: Hard to pick, but it's the plethora of bats this team throws at you. Their .931 team OPS is the highest in Omaha, and choosing Rodriguez as the top hitter was no easy question. Beyond Rodriguez, the Owls also offer Brian Friday, Joe Savery, Aaron Luna and Greg Buchanan. Top to bottom the order is talented, and in the middle, it's damn near impossible to pitch to. This team hits, hits and hits all-day long, and they might do so to the championship.

    Oh, and the pitching is pretty good, too. No two arms in the tournament have had better seasons statistically than Degerman and closer Cole St. Clair, who sports a .144 average against. A senior, expect Degerman's arm to get tested hard in this tournament, as he will pitch early and often. If you remember Jason Windsor's CWS workload, expect Degerman to get in the neighborhood in this tournament.

    Largest weakness: Pitching depth? It's truly hard to find a flaw in this team, they have done so well all season long against a tough schedule. They win every weekend series. And while I chose the depth in the staff, other starters Craig Crow and Bobby Bell are really good, going 16-1 on the season. For me, the tournament's wild card is Joe Savery, sophomore two-way player that hasn't been thrown very often this season.

    For a college that normally wears out top arms, it is strange that Savery only has 62 innings under his belt? The southpaw is superbly talented, but the Owls' reservations about his workload should make Rice fans wonder when he pitches in big situations.

    North Carolina

    Best Position Player: Josh Horton.

    Best Pitcher: Andrew Miller.

    Largest Strength: Dangerous starters. Everything out of Chapel Hill this spring has been about the Tar Heels' awesome trio of pitchers: Miller, Dan Bard and Robert Woodard. Miller won Baseball America's Player of the Year, and was the consensus top player available in the 2006 draft. His talents were on display last weekend against Alabama, proving that if Miller controls his fastball, North Carolina will win that game. Bard's inconsistency and Woodard's fringe stuff pose question marks, but both can pitch the Tar Heels to victory. If these three mesh at the right time, North Carolina could have an easy path.

    Note that the team can also hit, as their .324 batting average is the best in Omaha. They have done so at a fantastic rate recently, scoring 62 runs in their five-game winning streak; 12.4 runs per game! The club is led by .400 hitter Josh Horton, but Chad Flack's amazing super regional performance has him coming in with the gold star. Those two, along with Jay Cox, create a lot of problems for opposing pitching staffs.

    Largest weakness: Inconsistency. And a lot of it. The Tar Heels may be the team most prone to concentration lapses in Omaha; their 86 errors are good for second in the tournament. Horton is the culprit of 23 himself, and problems in the middle infield showed in Fayetteville. The staff also has problems with consistency, and Bard is a good example of that. In the second game of the super regional, head coach Mike Fox pulled the first round arm quickly, when it became apparent it wasn't one of his good days. None of those things can happen against teams like Fullerton or Clemson, so UNC must be on their best behavior.

    Cal State Fullerton

    Best Position Player: Blake Davis.

    Best Pitcher: Wes Roemer.

    Largest Strength: As opposed to North Carolina, Fullerton plays absolute mistake-free baseball. Their 54 team errors are the lowest in the tournament, and 28 less than the next lowest team on the left side of the bracket. They also don't walk people, handing out just 120 free passes on the season. Ace Wes Roemer leads the way with just 6 in 141.2 innings, but the club's top three starters combine for just 51. You have to beat them, they won't beat themselves.

    In addition, the number of veterans on this club is astounding. Danny Dorn and Brett Pill might not make for great pro prospects, but with their experience, this team has good veteran leadership. Normally a discounted strength, these types of things play huge roles in Omaha.

    Largest weakness: I worry about the offense this team will generate, especially when going against Andrew Miller and, potentially, Clemson's #2 option. They hit for a pretty high average, but there really isn't very much power to speak of. Furthermore, they don't walk very much, as their IsOD is the lowest in the tournament. Can this team really depend off three consecutive singles off Miller and guys like Jason Berken, Bard and the other good pitchers in the tournament? Without one guy with a double-digit home run total, this problem might become the focal point this weekend.

    Georgia Tech

    Best Position Player: Matt Wieters.

    Best Pitcher: Umm? Matt Wieters? Nah, Lee Hyde?

    Largest Strength: Wow, this team can hit. Just three teams in Omaha have .400 OBPs, and Tech's .420 is the highest. They are also one of just two teams with a .500 slugging, sitting at .501. There is a lot of terror in this lineup, with five players that hit 11 or more home runs. The group is led by two-way sophomore Wieters, the catcher/closer and the best at drawing walks and hitting the long ball. But if you pitch around Wieters, you meet a lot more bats, like redshirt senior Jeff Kindel, and juniors Wes Hodges and Whit Robbins. The amount of hitting this team can produce, and did produce against College of Charleston, is pretty astounding.

    Largest weakness: Football scores should be the expectation in GTech games, as the defense and pitching is both atrocious. The club's 94 errors are an Omaha high, and their .275 average against is right up there with Georgia's. Blake Wood was an overdraft by the Royals in the recent draft, but then looked great in his super regional start. If he pitches as he's capable to do, as he showed in the Cape, Tech becomes a much better team. But outside of Wood, Hyde and Wieters, is there a single arm the Tech staff should be comfortable putting on the mound.

    The answer, no, will be their downfall.

    Clemson

    Best Position Player: Tyler Colvin.

    Best Pitcher: Stephen Faris.

    Largest Strength: This club is very much like Oregon State, because they do everything pretty darn well, and in fact, better than the Beavers in all areas. Offensively, Colvin proved why he was a first round choice last weekend, hitting a walk-off grand slam. Colvin's ability to steal bases is one the whole team shares, their 101 stolen bases are an Omaha high, and they do so at better than an 80% clip. Other than Colvin, Andy D'Alessio is the most powerful player on the team, and Taylor Harbin is one of the more talented second basemen left in this tournament.

    The pitchers are good too, led by three starters: Faris, Jason Berken, Josh Cribb. These players combined for 49 starts, but weren't overworked, with no one going over 100 innings. This is because the team offers a good bullpen to hand the ball to, led by closer Daniel Moskos.

    Largest weakness: I'm going to pick on the staff, even though they don't deserve it. The Tigers have proven they can pitch with anyone this season, and their starters don't walk people, which is always a plus. But if ever there is a group of talent that rivals pro ball, it's in Omaha. And the Clemson staff just doesn't have a lot of high-profiling pro prospects; it wouldn't surprise me if they got hit. But I'm going to stop now, because I'm truly nitpicking. Really, there isn't a lot about this team that went wrong in 2006.

    * * * * *

    And now, for the predictions, which have not been going particularly well for me this tournament...

    Right Side of the Bracket: Oregon State. Depth is a concern for me, but I wouldn't be shocked if they have just enough arms to win the tournament. If they beat Miami in the opener, you have to like their second pitcher over what Rice has to offer, and at 2-0, the Beavers would then be in the driver's seat. Rice is the easy pick, but I think the Beavers ride continues.

    Left Side of the Bracket: North Carolina. The opening round match-up between Miller and Roemer is one of the best in recent Omaha history, and I believe the winner of this game wins this side of the bracket. I'm picking Miller and the hot North Carolina bats, who shouldn't be too fazed by Roemer's good-not-great stuff.

    College World Series Champs: UNC. I picked them in the preseason, and they beat the team (Alabama) that I picked at the beginning of this tournament handily. A nice going out for Miller and Bard, a nice coming out for Horton and Flack.

    WTNYJune 14, 2006
    Tier Promotion
    By Bryan Smith

    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. With the recent graduation of one of the minors' top classes of phenoms in recent memory, a phrase normally left for hyperbole is becoming all-but-too literal.

    This winter, prospect pundits made cases for their annual pick of baseball's best pitching prospect, selecting from a group of four: Francisco Liriano, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley and Justin Verlander. All had very good arguments; any choice was defensible.

    In my rankings, which were in the very order listed above, I had four other pitchers joining the elite group to comprise a top tier: Jon Lester, Scott Olsen, Jon Papelbon and Joel Zumaya. Even the biggest skeptic could agree that there was such thing as a baseball prospect: there were eight of them.

    When the season started, it became quickly obvious the list was missing one name, Cole Hamels. The lefthander proved healthy and dominant in the early going, erasing any previous concern and flying up prospect lists. Hamels' meteoric rise was capped with a call-up to the big leagues, gone before we could properly rank him.

    If reports are correct, as of this Thursday, baseball's entire first tier of pitching prospects will have gone the way of Hamels. Jon Lester's Red Sox debut came last Saturday; Chad Billingsley is set to start tomorrow. Baseball may have never had such an accomplished group of graduated pitching prospects.

    Unsurprisingly, as a whole, the 8-some is achieving huge Major League success. Jon Papelbon is the American League's best reliever, and Francisco Liriano its hottest starter. Joel Zumaya hit 102 mph on the gun this weekend, while teammate Justin Verlander has been in that velocity's neighborhood late into plenty of games.

    This weekend, I received an e-mail with a simple question that, now, I can no longer answer. "Who is the best pitching prospect in the minors?" A week ago, I would have mindlessly answered Billingsley, who had been pitching well in one of the minor leagues' toughest parks for pitchers. Lester, I would have noted, a close second, bouncing back exceptionally from his third slow start in as many years.

    Not only is it near impossible to peg a top arm name right now, it's quite difficult to even find a top tier. Players in this group should profile as All-Stars, top of the rotation arms or ace relievers. Scanning through the minor leagues, players that fit this category are few and far between.

    So while I do believe a pitching-laden draft in 2006, and next year's loaded class will bring the minor league pitching back to its glory, there is no time to complain like the present. With that said, here is a list of the names that floated in my head for top dog, creating by default a (pitiful) top tier. In absolutely no particular order:

  • Philip Hughes - If you had told me in mid-April that I would be writing this article, I would have guessed this list might very well begin and end with Hughes. By then Hughes was flexing his young muscle in the Florida State League, which he would live with a ridiculous 30-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Pitchers his age, 20, aren't supposed to be capable of that. However, since a move to AA, Hughes has started to seem far more human. However, not one peripheral number is frightening, thus the righthander's presence on this list. Hughes will not be ready for New York for another year, at the earliest, but Hughes will quickly remind Yankees fans how useful homegrown blue-chippers can be.

  • Anthony Reyes - The rap on Reyes goes unchanged through the season's first two months, yet Reyes finds himself in a new tier. The Cardinal righthander continues to be ignored in AAA, despite slowly getting better and better as this season has gone on. Reyes really belonged in yesterday's article; he deserves a spot in the big league rotation, or to be dealt for a bat soon. A limited ceiling holds Reyes back as a prospect some, but he is as good a bet to be a productive leader as you'll find among this tier.

  • Mike Pelfrey - The favorite for leading this tier, but it isn't as if he's made it clear cut. Like Hughes, Pelfrey coasted through the Florida State League, posting his own 26-2 K/BB ratio. His move to AAA has gone better than the Yankee prospect, but he hasn't been consistent. At times, in his last start, Pelfrey has been dominant, and looks like a future ace in the making ... a guy who could have fit in last year's top tier. However, players of that caliber don't get hit as hard as Pelfrey has in some outings, leaving some room open for doubt. With a little consistency, Pelfrey would definitively rise atop this group.

  • Nick Adenhart - How in the world can I have the nerve to start an article with TINSTAPP and put this guy on my list? Trust me, Adenhart belongs. Having already been through the injury process, Adenhart is one step of the game, pitching with a repaired elbow. On the mound he has been dominant in the Midwest League, pitching well in all-but-one outing on the season. While his strikeout numbers pale in comparison to others in low-A, like Wade Davis or Brandon Erbe, Adenhart shows more pitchability than both. The Angels have no need to rush him, so I just don't see the negatives here. Big stuff, a healthy right arm, a coddled future and a bunch of pitchability. He belongs.

  • Matt Garza - The final pitcher on our list who is helped by an early season run through the Florida State League. While last year's first round pick lasted the longest in the FSL, he certainly earned his promotion, allowing just 27 hits in 44.1 innings. And of the three, Garza has been the best upon a move to Double-A, in perhaps the most difficult ballpark. The Twins knew they were drafting a right arm with a lot of stuff last June, but I doubt they thought the player might be ready to contribute by September, 2006. Expect the Twins to develop a solid long-term plan this winter, and when they do so, expect Garza to be featured prominently.

  • Jeremy Sowers - From a stuff and ceiling standpoint, Sowers does not belong on this list. He's bad in neither category, but a fastball in the 80s usually isn't associated with top 6. In this instance it should be, as Sowers makes up for any lack of stuff with the extraordinary ability to keep the ball down. Sowers has been consistently dominant in the IL this season, and despite problems in the back end of the rotation, the Indians have not backed down. They will be patient with Sowers -- and their seven figure free agents -- even if it detracts from the 2006 win-loss record. So, for now, Sowers is one of the minors' top 6 pitching prospects, but perhaps the closest to Major League success.

    Certainly, other names can make arguments for this list. I considered dozens of other pitchers, and when asked, I'll explain my reasoning for not including every one in the comments. It won't be long before this list is useless, before the 2006 draft starts to make it obsolete. Because, for all we know, at this point next year the best argument might be made for someone like Kyle Drabek. Such is the uncertainty with the great mystery of the pitching prospect.

  • WTNYJune 13, 2006
    Stuck in the Mud
    By Bryan Smith

    Rarely is a Major League ready prospect stuck in Triple-A an indictment of a franchise. Too often a good player finds himself blocked, with a good player or a big contract in his way. While these players become cornerstones to AAA franchises and minor league icons, we are left wondering about what they could do in the right situation.

    For some reason, this year there seems to be an abundance of such circumstances, so today we will go exploring. Ladies and gentleman, jumping right into things, your Minor League All-Blocked Team:

    First Base: Scott Thorman, Braves

    I don't believe that Adam LaRoche is at the heart of the Atlanta Braves' problems. This year, Dave's son has provided the Braves with plenty of power, posting an Isolated Power of nearly .250. However, the power has come at the expense of his batting average, as his ISO is equivalent to his average. The reason? Poor contact skills, as LaRoche is striking out in more than 20% of his plate appearances.

    Enter Thorman. While handing the everyday spot to him would be accepting some loss in terms of power (his ISO is only about .240 in AAA), it would help in the on-base percentage column. Thorman's reduced strikeout numbers would help get more batting average from the position, and while Thorman doesn't walk at LaRoche's rate, he does so at an acceptable pace; his OBP is .049 points higher than LaRoche's, albeit at a lower level.

    Given his recent home run hot streak, which has helped double his home run rate over two weeks, the Braves would be best suited to try the flavor of the week. If that doesn't work, perhaps a trade would.

    Second Base: Asdrubal Cabrera, Mariners

    All right, all right, I know Cabrera isn't blocked yet. At .252/.341/.392, Cabrera has done little to prove he's ready for the Major Leagues. But he's 20, a defensive stallion, and right around the corner. The problem: the freakish .483 SLG emergence of Jose Lopez. Some people may have seen Lopez coming, but not me.

    So with the Mariners' future middle infield already turning the double play in Seattle, Cabrera is left without a light at the end of his tunnel. Supremely talented, Cabrera has been unaffected by Seattle's desperate attempt to rush him in the last two seasons.

    If anyone on this list deserves a midseason trade, it's Cabrera, one of baseball's best prospects a stat sheet has never heard of.

    Shortstop: Jason Bartlett, Twins

    .259/.305/.341. "Led" by Juan Castro, and his -6.2 VORP, this is the production Minnesota is receiving from the shortstop position. These numbers would be substantially lower if not for an odd, out-of-character season from Nick Punto, who is holding up the position's numbers in half the at-bats. The solution? Stick with the original plan.

    The Twins weren't sure what they got in Jason Bartlett when they acquired him for Brian Buchanan, but like many of Terry Ryan's trades, it became quickly clear that Minnesota came out on the better end. Years later, that's still true, though the Twins have shown a vast reluctance to make Bartlett their full-time shortstop.

    Currently 26, Bartlett is hitting .306/.328/.445 in Triple-A. Obviously, he isn't a star shortstop; he never walks and shows gap power at best. However, Bartlett represents a vast improvement over Castro and Punto. This is a point that pundits universally agree on, now it's the Twins turn.

    Third Base: Josh Fields, White Sox

    After his horrendous 2005 season, Josh Fields exited the prospect radar. At the age of 22, the athletic third baseman hit just .252/.341/.409 in the Southern League, striking out 142 times in the process. We assumed that Fields' power potential would never outweigh his inability to make contact. So far, so wrong.

    This season, Fields has been other-worldly, hitting .343/.432/.599. Strikeouts? Still excessive, 63 in 207 at-bats, meaning the Sox prospect is sporting a .449 BABIP. So, we know that the numbers are coming down. But even when they reach a middle ground between last year and this season, Fields will be a worthy bargaining chip for a team dedicated to Joe Crede. The Oklahoma State quarterback offers fantastic power, a lot of patience, and tons of athleticism.

    Even with the strikeouts, in the next nine months, some team will bite at Josh Fields. And, no matter how you slice it, any post-2005 impression is likely to be left in the dust.

    Outfield: David Murphy, Red Sox; Chris Denorfia, Reds; Nelson Cruz, Brewers

    Over the winter, I answered a few questions over at soxprospects.com. When asked about David Murphy, I returned this response:

    I like Murphy a lot more than your average guy. In 2005, this is a player that struggled very, very badly out of the gate. So much so, in fact, that after 48 games he was hitting an abysmal .218/.278/.303, striking out in 24.2% of his at-bats. There was nothing to like. Then, however, something clicked in Murphy, as he finished the season hitting .304/.374/.495 the rest of the way, this time striking out just 13.5% of the time. Talk about a different player. The one I like to see is the second one, a centerfielder with good contact skills and solid pop with just enough speed and patience. However, David can't let slow starts continually bog him down. I like Murphy more than an Adam Stern or Bubba Crosby, and at worst, he should be a fourth outfielder in the Majors.

    Murphy has continued his hot-hitting ways into this season, improving upon his AA numbers after a promotion to Pawtucket. The former Baylor outfielder has struck out just seven times in 16 Triple-A games, while hitting 11 extra-base hits. Theo Epstein's first round pick is starting to look a lot more like a late bloomer than a bust, fittingly months after the Red Sox committed their centerfield future to Coco Crisp. Hopefully, Murphy's hot start won't go unnoticed around the deadline.

    Nelson Cruz is in the opposite situation. No, not just because he was a player I frowned upon, but also because the Brewers have a spot opening for him. With Carlos Lee's impending trade from the organization, the hot-hitting Cruz should see a promotion. However, right now, the big outfielder is ready and sizzling. Cruz is on pace for a 30-30 season, with 14 home runs and 13 steals through 61 games in Nashville. Cruz is the rare example of a guy on this list that could, if things break as expected, be awaiting a full-time position by season's end.

    This is not true for Chris Denorfia, as unjust as things might be. With the Reds offseason dealing, a spot should have opened up for Denorfia, with Adam Dunn moving to first base. However, an infatuation with Scott Hatteberg unexpectedly arose, and Denorfia was again pushed back to Triple-A. He has thrived in Louisville, improving upon last year's performance, striking out just 20 times in 182 at-bats. Denorfia doesn't have fantastic upside, but he represents the type of all-around solid player that the Reds, or teams trading with them, should not value lightly.

    Starting Pitchers: Abe Alvarez, Red Sox; Rich Hill, Cubs; Joe Saunders, Angels; Evan MacLane, Mets; Dana Eveland, Brewers

    Notice a trend? This group of southpaws is not one known to light up radar guns (Eveland excluded), but each has discovered a road to AAA success. Hill has his curveball, Saunders keeps the ball down, Alvarez attacks hitters. Whatever the formula, is has worked; as a group, they have a 2.37 ERA in 289 AAA innings this season.

    The other thing they have in common (MacLane exluded), is a series of failures in the Majors. As a foursome, in 118.2 Major League innings, 108 earned runs have crossed the plate. So, trust me, it's hard to make an argument that a group of (generally) crafty southpaws belong in a league in which they have proved inadequate.

    Maybe the answer is obvious, and the group is simply the left side of a Quad-A All-Star team. Perhaps a journey through AAA, a la Les Walrond, awaits each. But I'm not giving up quite so easily.

    Obviously, Rich Hill needs a change in scenery. Wrigley Field has been his nightmare, the home of too many walks and home runs. And though his trade value is depleted, lefthanders with his strikeout numbers and his curveball are a wanted commodity.

    Alvarez and Saunders are another pair of likely trade candidates, due to a combination of depth and surroundings. Fenway Park is not the right stomping ground for a bulldog lefty, and with (when healthy) enough depth, the Red Sox could stand to lose Alvarez. Plenty of other clubs would improve upon adding him; if Jim Parque was on his way to forging a Major League career (pre-injury), there is a spot for Alvarez.

    Salt Lake is a proven pitcher's nightmare, yet no one has bothered to tell Saunders. When keeping the ball down, he might be able to succeed anywhere. However, the Angels aren't able to allow him to do so in Los Angeles; keeping Jered Weaver in the five-man is problem enough. Saunders is well on the second-tier in one of the game's most loaded farm systems, allowing some team to jump at his low stock while they can.

    As for the other two, Eveland and MacLane, I don't see any reason why their organization must change. Eveland has proven his rotund body is best suited for the rotation, not the bullpen role to which he was slated in 2005. While his five starts this season went to hell, Dana simply needs more chances in an organization with time to give it. As for MacLane, he isn't quite ready yet, just as the Mets rotation isn't ready for him. However, when the likes of Steve Trachsel and El Duque fade into the darkness, even with the presence of Alay Soler and Mike Pelfrey, there should be a back-end spot open for MacLane.

    Again, I'm not predicting this group offers a single Cy Young, All-Star, or deserving innings-eater. But, given an insane amount of success in the minors' highest level, they represent five southpaws with potential success indicators. Somewhere, this should mean something.

    Relief Pitcher: Pat Neshek, Twins

    Aaron Gleeman recently put together a better argument for Neshek than I could. In that Gleeman piece you will see Neshek's delivery, which while unconventional, spells death for right-handed hitters. He comes at hitters from an odd angle and in the strike zone - control has never been a problem. His one caveat has always been the lefthanded hitter, or the home run, or best yet, a combination of the two: the lefthanded home run.

    The Twins bullpen is not, particularly, a problem: Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon shutting things down late have led to an aggregate 3.54 ERA. However, every bullpen has its' Achilles, and for Minnesota, Jesse Crain is it. The former top relief prospect has been awful in the Majors, and probably deserved to follow fellow Cougar Ryan Wagner's path back to the minors. In his spot should come Neshek, who would need a bad case of dead arm to not improve upon the .395/.418/.592 line that RH hitters have lit Crain up for in 2006.

    By protecting Neshek from the Rule 5 draft this winter, the Twins indicated they have a potential commodity in Neshek. Now, more than ever, is their time to cash in.

    * * * * *

    Yes, our All-Blocked team is without a catcher, but Mike Rivera didn't fit the bill and Ryan Garko's catching days are long gone. And not only is Carlos Marmol unblocked, but he's on the mound these days. As far as finding a universal solution goes, to harp on an annual Jim Callis theme, we must bring up the idea of prospect-for-prospect trading. So much uncertainty is unlikely to be traded, but that can't help us from dreaming (Thorman for Bartlett, Cabrera and friends for Elijah Dukes ... the possibilities are endless!).

    However, if we are keeping dreams realistic, go to bed tonight with deadline deals involving the Murphys, Hills, and Nesheks of the world as players to be named later dancing in your head.

    WTNYJune 09, 2006
    Super Weekend Ahead
    By Bryan Smith

    If college baseball needs anything to truly succeed on a larger scale, it's: 1) Cinderella stories in their postseason tournament, 2) big stars to follow. While the latter is hard to come up with given baseball's current draft system, last weekend sure provided some good team stories.

    Manhattan almost had their dream regional come true, as the Jaspers nearly won their regional after shutting down Nebraska in the opener. The Cornhuskers struggled in both of their games, exiting days after their stock to win it all had been going up. Nebraska joined multiple top seeds in the ugly weekend, namely the defending champion Texas Longhorns.

    Texas lost their Saturday game to a red-hot Stanford team, and then were shocked the next morning with a late-game loss to the N.C. State Wolfpack. Top seeds Oklahoma State and Kentucky both saw smaller schools -- Oral Roberts and College of Charleston, respectively -- come to play against the big boys, dominating the weekend.

    And as far as most exciting goes, we had a fantastic Pepperdine regional, as Missouri rebounded from a Friday loss to the Waves to win the regional. While it looks like the seeding committee didn't do their job with so many upsets, such is the nature of college baseball. This is why, if you're smart, you'll keep your eyes glued to the TV this weekend.

    So after a dismal weekend on the prediction front last week, I'm back at it again, with your Super Regional preview.

    Oklahoma at Rice

    Offense should be on hand this weekend in Houston, as both squads averaged more than eight runs per game in 2006. The difference maker should be that, in addition to hitting well, Rice's pitching staff had just a 3.02 ERA this season. Cross your fingers that we have an all-senior pitching match on one day, as Rice's Eddie Degerman and OU's Daniel McCutchen are an interesting pair. Degerman's odd delivery wins out in the battle, as does the whole Rice pitching staff, right down to closer Cole St. Clair.

    He might not be a secret, but watch out for Joe Savery as the Owls' weapon this weekend. The future 2007 first rounder is great at the plate and on the mound, and Savery could spell the Sooners' demise this weekend. While I may have said differently last week, until Rice shows signs of weakness, it's pretty difficult to pick against them.

    Pick: Rice.

    South Carolina at Georgia

    One player I missed talking about in my draft review was Joey Side, one of the sixth round's best finds. Side was fantastic in the Bulldogs regional, hitting a home run in every big opportunity. The weekend pushed his OPS north of 1.000, and I should also mention that Side is a good defensive center fielder. Watch out for Side this weekend, who is just one of three Georgia double-digit home run hitters, along with freshman SS Gordon Beckham and first baseman Josh Morris (23 jacks!).

    The Georgia offense is a deadly weapon, but the Gamecocks can hit as well. Senior outfielder Michael Campbell puts constant pressure on the defense with a fantastic contact rate, and freshman Justin Smoak does nothing but hit the ball far. Smoak is just one of a few freshman on the team, which could play a role this weekend.

    The winner of the Brooks Brown-Mike Cisco match could very well determine this series, but in the end, I'll go with the club that offers the most pitching depth - SC.

    Pick: South Carolina.

    Miami at Mississippi

    Inspired by Bill Simmons, I can hear the promotions for this series already. "Coghlan! Jay! It's Miami and Ole Miss! The Super Regional, only on ESPN U!" The two juniors are the big names of this series, but underclassmen middle infielders - freshman 2B Jemile Weeks for Miami and sophomore SS Zack Cozart for Miss - might have the bigger impact on the weekend.

    In the end, I like the advantage that Miss has in the power and bullpen departments. While Chris Perez is as dangerous a player as there is in this series, the Rebels bullpen goes five players deep. If any of Mississippi's freshman starters struggle, look for the bullpen to stymie the Hurricanes.

    Pick: Mississippi.

    Stanford at Oregon State

    On paper, this series isn't close. Oregon State is nearly a point better than the Cardinal in ERA, and .060 points better in OPS. But while we were all anticipating an OSU-Texas Super Regional, Stanford decided to play its best baseball of the season last weekend. At its best, Stanford is a deadly team, anchored of course by second overall choice Greg Reynolds. However, this team simply doesn't have enough power and enough pitching to win.

    Oregon State, at least, has the pitching. While Dallas Buck is no longer the pro prospect he once was, the junior has the pitchability to beat a lot of guys. Behind him on the staff, famously, are Jonah Nickerson and Kevin Gunderson, two top-ten round players. Oregon State is a tough team to beat at home, and led by Cole Gillespie, the Beavers will be making a return trip to Omaha at weekend's end.

    Pick: Oregon State.

    Oral Roberts at Clemson

    I admit we didn't give Oral Roberts enough attention last week. The Golden Eagles then went out and played great baseball, led by an offense that is, on paper, better than Clemson's. Andy Bouchie is as good a hitter as we will see in this series, so look for Clemson to avoid him whenever possible. Letting Bouchie beat you would be stupid. But, if anything, Clemson has the pitching staff to beat him. Few rotations have been as productive as Faris, Berken and Cribb, and the bullpen can handle any pressure situation.

    The Clemson offense is also dangerous, led by surprise first round pick Tyler Colvin. While most scouts may have thought of Colvin as a second- or third-rounder, he's a great college threat with power and fantastic baserunning instincts. The whole Clemson team is well coached on the basepaths, stealing about 1.5 bags per game at a better-than-80% clip. Clemson cruises.

    Pick: Clemson.

    College of Charleston at Georgia Tech

    My prediction, not-so-bold, is that sophomore Matt Wieters will have the largest role in this series. Wieters is a fantastic player, a potential top ten pick next June, that doubles as a catcher (1.072 OPS) and reliever (2.67 ERA). But while we knew his bat and arm would both have influences, its his arm behind the plate that may define his series. If College of Charleston does anything well, it's swipe bases, going 124-for-158 on the bases this season.

    While Tech's offense offers power, with five guys in double figures, Charleston will play small ball, offering the better team average and five double-digit SB runners. If the series comes down to pitching, Charleston has the advantage, especially with Nick Chigges (11-1, 1.32) on board. The club may not have faced the best talent this season, but Charleston is ready to make their move to Omaha.

    Pick: College of Charleston.

    Missouri at Cal State Fullerton

    My predictions didn't go great last week, but if I take anything from the article, it's the Missouri-to-win prediction. The club was obviously the best fourth seed in the tournament, and they overcame a loss in Max Scherzer's start to win the regional. Kudos to coach Tim Jamieson, back-to-back complete games, and Nate Culp, the junior southpaw that pitched on Saturday and Monday. The Tigers have the arms, but perhaps not the bats, to move on.

    However, Fullerton will take their arms against anyone. Cal State had just one guy over 6 home runs on the season, and a team slugging percentage of just .445. But their pitching staff has a 2.62 ERA, thanks to just 119 walks in 532 innings. Friday starter Wes Roemer was responsible for just 6 of those in 133.2 innings, and gives the Titans a decent chance to beat Scherzer.

    I'd like to pick Missouri as my continued sleeper, and I'm not a huge CSUF believer, but the top seed gets it done here.

    Pick: Cal State Fullerton.

    North Carolina at Alabama

    We end with the weekend's most exciting regional. While the Tide would be favorites in Vegas, the super regional host, it sure doesn't seem like that coming into the weekend. All people can talk about are the arms in North Carolina, and they do have them, led by (obviously) Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. In the bullpen, watch out for Jonathan Hovis and Andrew Carignan. Quite a group.

    Alabama has some good arms themselves, but the problem is, they have less experience. Tommy Hunter has first round upside, but his start should come against Bard, the more experienced pitcher. However, 'Bama gets more consistent hitting, as UNC's powerful showing in their regional was not indicative of the season they had with the bat.

    Alabama was my pick to win it all a week ago, and while I had first-hand good impressions of North Carolina last week, things won't change yet.

    Pick: Alabama.

    WTNYJune 07, 2006
    Morning After: Going Deep
    By Bryan Smith

    There is more than one way to eat a Reese's, and more than one way to analyze a draft. In the coming days, I will do my best to provide as many options as I can.

    In the coming days I will have a general review at SI.com, and next week, we'll start to go through the draft lists team-by-team. Today, however, I wanted to look at some of the players that were overshadowed by the big names and dramatic stories.

    The top of the draft went down in crazy fashion yesterday, with the Rockies and Mariners making a pair of pretty silly choices to mix things up early. The round provided so much intrigue, but all the players were familiar names, just arranged in a different fashion. An organization's ability to go deep in a draft, to make value choices as the days go on, determines who had the best draft.

    In that light, I want to spend today looking at my favorite value pick from each round. With guys dropping and reaches happening all over the place, these are twelve names I found refreshing when perusing the draft lists. We'll start our way at the top, with the familiar Eddie Bane, and end with the Yankees fantastic middle round drafting, led by Damon Oppenheimer. More to come...

    Round One: Hank Conger, c, Los Angeles Angels

    In most mock drafts, Conger was off the board at this choice. While I gave both Bryan Morris and Daniel Bard consideration for this space, Eddie Bane picked Conger over the two pitchers. Oh, to have been in the war room for that argument! Anyway, in a recent chat, Baseball America's John Manuel predicted Conger would be the draft's best player in five years. Conger plays the game's most premium position, and offers serious power and the ability to switch hit. The Angels didn't splash often in this draft, drawing my interest just one more time, so this was a big pick.

    Supplemental First: Dave Huff, lhp, Cleveland Indians

    It was important for the Indians to get a good player in this spot, their first pick of the draft. In the end, Huff got the nod over Joba Chamberlain, due to the Huskers' injury concerns. Huff's pitch count suggests he also might have future injuries, but this late in the draft, he is worth the risk. Everyone has now heard the Barry Zito comparisons, while Huff offers a plus change instead of that knee-buckling curve. He'll rise quickly in a system with a lot of southpaws (Sabathia, Lee, Sowers, Lofgren). My only concern is the inconsistency shown in the hits allowed column this spring.

    Round Two: Justin Masterson, rhp, Boston Red Sox

    I have spent the last two weeks on board the Masterson train, going as far to write up a capsule on him in preparation for his spot in the first round. It didn't happen, as the Sox got a steal late in the second. Here's my write-up:

    A Midwest boy, Masterson was a late bloomer, leaving the prep Ohio scene for Bethel College. Dominated in his second season there, named a NAIA All-American. After committing to San Diego State, Masterson dominated in the Cape Cod League, allowing just four earned runs in 31.1 innings, striking out 39 in the process.

    Before yielding big results in his junior season as an Aztec, the majority of Masterson's attention resulted from his developed body. Masterson is 6-6, 245, offering one of the larger pitching frames in the 2006 draft. He has good tilt on a mid 90s fastball, yielding some of round one's top ground ball rates. Like many players in his class, scouts believe Masterson has a good back-up career in relief, where his developed two-pitch arsenal could rise quickly.

    However, in the past few weeks, Masterson has become a favorite of mine. For his frame and stuff, few pitchers could boast his type of walk rates allowed: just 26 in 116 innings. In Kent Bonham's recent college stat study on this site, he found Masterson to be as unlucky as they come. Remove defense, park and schedule from the equation, and Masterson's 4.54 ERA drops to 2.67.

    The Aztecs rode Masterson hard in the middle of the season; Tony Gwynn kept his Friday starter on the mound for four complete games. But when postseason play became an unrealistic goal, the workload decreased, and Masterson has thrown just 18.1 innings since May 1.

    While Bard is a lock to be shut down before pitching again in 2006, Masterson could reasonably spend the year on a limited pitch count, getting in a little more competitive baseball. He's in the perfect organization to be monitored closely.

    Supplemental Second: Mark Hamilton, 1b, St. Louis Cardinals

    Unfortunately for Hamilton, being drafted here means he enters an organization for which he has no future. Fortunately, he immediately becomes the system's best power hitter, and profiles to move quickly. Hamilton would have led the nation in home runs if not for Hurricane Katrina, which kept Hamilton playing in a pitcher-friendly "home" ballpark. Earlier in the year we read about Hamilton's big power showing on Friday nights, indicating he should transfer to the next level better than power collegiate competitors Aaron Bates and Matt LaPorta. Finally, Hamilton was solid in the Cape last summer, so wood bats won't be a problem, either. Expect Hamilton to get more respect in the trade market in 2008, when he is ready for the show.

    Round Three: Stephen King, ss, Washington Nationals

    Guilty confession: I love, love, love the Nats draft. I know this now excludes me from future admission to any school of sabermetrics, but I'll live. Kudos to Dana Brown for a job well done, grabbing the likes of Chris Marrero, Jordan Walden, Sean Black and King. The last of the group to be drafted, Jim Callis had predicted earlier on Tuesday that he would end up going 13th overall to the Cubs. And let me tell you, if Tim Wilken likes a guy... Anwyay, King is agile and is fine at short despite a big frame that bodes well for future power. The current market inefficiencies supports high school selections, and Washington capitalized in 2006. This won't pay off right away, but on Tuesday, Jim Bowden laid a foundation.

    Round Four: Ben Snyder, lhp, San Francisco Giants

    Following his study for this site last week, Kent Bonham sent me a list of all pitchers he used, all of whom appeared on a Baseball America prospect list during the year. I quickly adjusted his spreadsheet, looking for the pitchers with the largest difference between ERA and AdjDERA. This should tell us which hurlers were the most lucky and unlucky this year. A couple of really interesting names showed up, and in the top 10 for most unlucky we find fourth rounders Ben Snyder and Craig Baker, taken eight picks earlier to the Rockies. Snyder gets the nod here because he throws from the left side, has four pitches, and had a very good regional weekend. His status as a draft-eligible sophomore is the only knock against him - he has most of the signability leverage.

    Round Five: John Shelby, 2b, Chicago White Sox

    My least favorite round of the draft today, and not only because my favorite team spent their pick on the draft's most overrated player (Samardzija). It just seems as the round was chock full of mediocre talents, with Shelby getting the nod over Chris Errecart and Kevin Gunderson thanks to his position. Bonham's analysis ranked Shelby as the draft's third-best collegiate second baseman, so the Sox had good value in this round. Choices like Shelby and Chris Getz, made a year ago, aren't sexy, and don't offer a lot of upside. But in this round, getting potential average Major Leaguers at important positions is a plus.

    Round Six: Harold Mozingo, rhp, Kansas City Royals

    While Ottavino was always the better pro prospect, thanks to a bigger fastball and better size, the difference between the two is not 147 picks. Mozingo was the better pitcher for most of this season, and enters the Royals system far more polished than Ottavino. Given great command and a good enough curveball to be called an out pitch, Mozingo should rise quickly. 2008 is not an unreasonable ETA. The second option for this spot was Jordan Newton, the beginning of a great middle round run by David Chadd and Dave Dambrowski, to be continued...

    Round Seven: Jonah Nickerson, rhp, Detroit Tigers

    Tim Norton was almost the guy here, but I wanted to give the Tigers some love. The team went really college-heavy this year, and while reaching with Bourquin and Strieby, the club had quite a few very solid picks. Nickerson fell late in this draft because he doesn't have Buck's upside or Gunderson's arm angle, but Nickerson was the most consistent of the three. The Tigers have oodles of starting pitching as a young organization right now, but Jonah could move quickly as a future member of the back end. The Tigers got Chris Cody in the next run, the Manhattan pitcher that led the Jaspers to an upset this past weekend. Good drafting.

    Round Eight: Dellin Betances, rhp, New York Yankees
    Round Nine: Mark Melancon, rhp, New York Yankees

    I passed on Norton as my seventh round choice because I knew the Yankees had nailed the 8th and 9th rounds. Betances has been telling people its Yankees or bust for quite some time, a theory New York plans to test. If Betances doesn't sign right away, he may go to St. Petursburg JC, and could end up a prime draft-and-follow candidate. Melancon would have been a first rounder if not for injury, and while mildly serious, he's too good to last much longer.

    Bonham also tipped me off on another awesome ninth round pick, Nate Boman by the Angels. Labrum victim, yes, but Boman was TheMan last year. These are the types of risks teams should be taking in these late rounds.

    Round Ten: Emeel Salem, of, Baltimore Orioles

    What? He fell this far? In Bonham's sheet of all the hitters used in his study, Salem is seventh when ranking by Bill James' speed score. The athletic Alabama outfielder stole 32 bases this season, and plays very good defense in center. He is also a very good contact hitter, striking out less than 10% of the time during his junior season with the Tide. With Salem and Emmanuel Burriss, the Orioles landed two of the most athletic collegiate players in the draft. Final tenth round pick Blair Erickson drew consideration for this spot, as did talented football player Jared Mithcell, a high school outfielder taken by the Twins.

    WTNYJune 06, 2006
    Draft Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    "Everything is a mess," I was told of the 2006 draft in the past few hours. Surprisingly, the person was not talking of my mock draft, but rather the haziness that had yet to clear, with less than twelve hours before the first name is called.

    Baseball Analysts will attempt to keep you updated as the day rolls on, liveblogging the event as we did last year. Our comments will be posted as the draft unfolds, most certainly in a fashion different than we anticipated.

    However, before the craziness ensures, it is time at one more preview of the draft. We'll open in the same place that most scouting departments will today: attempting to look at the morning mysteries. For me, the three biggest questions that we will soon have answers for are...

    1. Kansas City, can you be serious?

    For the last calendar year, at least, we have known that Andrew Miller represented the top talent in the draft. And for what appears to be that long, the Royals have remained unconvinced. Now, less than 24 hours before the draft begins, the Royals remain juggling three candidates: Miller, Brad Lincoln, Luke Hochevar.

    The future health of the organization demands the Royals pick the player atop their draft board. If it isn't Miller, for whatever reason, they must explain that to their fan base. However, it would be a travesty to waste their top selection on Hochevar for financial reasons. Furthermore, the repercussions of awarding a player for holding out are damning for the future of the Major League draft.

    Pick Miller, pick Lincoln, pick Hochevar. I don't care. But KC, please, don't settle for the cheapest choice.

    2. How many college pitchers will it be?

    The strength of this draft is no secret. There are about 3 legitimate college position players, four solid prep pitchers, and about 5 first round-caliber high school hitters. The rest? College pitchers.

    We know that the top half of the first round will involve these hurlers: Miller, Lincoln, Hochevar, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Joba Chamberlain, Brandon Morrow, Greg Reynolds, Daniel Bard. All of these players are first round locks, and it could be argued the group of nine is among the top dozen best players in the draft.

    The rest of the first round has another group of college arms that could be selected. Kyle McCulloch, Justin Masterson, Brett Sinkbeil, Dave Huff, Brooks Brown, and JuCo players Pedro Beato and Bryan Morris. The market is offering one commodity, and while this draft's talent base had been criticized, it is flush in polished arms.

    The record for pitchers in the first round is 20. My prediction: it will be topped by one tomorrow.

    3. Who will be the first to change the complexion of the draft?

    Uncertainty surrounds this year's draft like few in the past, making a mock draft nearly impossible for those in the world not named Jim Callis. Not only have the Royals left many in the dark about their forthcoming selection, but so have many other teams that could determine the placement of the draft's top 30 talents.

    For instance, the Pirates are in the position to change things. Greg Reynolds has been the name we've heard the most in the past two months, but few would be surprised by Bard, Morrow, Drabek, Kershaw or Stubbs. The Giants pick, drafting tenth, is one domino that could fall post-Pittsburgh. If Bard isn't available, Callis has mentioned San Francisco might go cheap with Chris Parmalee, but what do they do if he's there?

    Tim Lincecum and Matt Antonelli are two names suffering right now, both are becoming options for teams that had never considered the names. Kyle Drabek is a wild card, his alcohol abuse makes a fit hard to find. And, of course, we have the deep sleeper choices, like Jeff Samardzija (as high as to the Cubs), to keep us on our toes.

    The one certainty this far out is that we will be surprised on Draft Day. The big question is which domino will fall first, and in what direction will it push the rest?

    * * * * *

    On days like this, we all wish we were flies on the walls of war rooms. Actually, we wish we were the scouting directors at the head of the table, making the decisions. Instead of turning in my application, I have decided to sit back comfortably in my armchair and play backseat director.

    As I have done all spring, I am going to stay away from presenting my high school draft board; I'll leave that to the professionals. But through talks with college coaches, a lot of reading, watching and number-crunching, I feel confident in my analysis of the college crop.

    So, readers, join me in my war room. The draft is just hours away, and my final collegiate draft board, going 40 names deep, reads:

    RANK Name Team
    1 Andrew Miller North Carolina
    2 Evan Longoria Long Beach State
    3 Brad Lincoln Houston
    4 Max Scherzer Missouri
    5 Drew Stubbs Texas
    6 Daniel Bard North Carolina
    7 Tim Lincecum Washington
    8 Luke Hochevar Fort Worth
    9 Brandon Morrow California
    10 Joba Chamberlain Nebraska
    11 Justin Masterson San Diego State
    12 Matt Antonelli Wake Forest
    13 Brett Sinkbeil Missouri State
    14 Dave Huff UCLA
    15 Greg Reynolds Stanford
    16 Kyle McCulloch Texas
    17 Mark Melancon Arizona
    18 Brooks Brown Georgia
    19 Mark Hamilton Tulane
    20 Steven Wright Hawaii
    21 Andrew Carpenter Long Beach State
    22 Emmanuel Burriss Kent State
    23 Josh Butler San Diego
    24 Kris Johnson Wichita State
    25 Adam Ottavino Northeastern
    26 Jared Hughes Long Beach State
    27 Wes Hodges Georgia Tech
    28 Josh Rodriguez Rice
    29 Mike Felix Troy
    30 Chris Coghlan Ole Miss
    31 Derrick Lutz George Washington
    32 Harold Mozingo Virginia Commonwealth
    33 Matt LaPorta Florida
    34 Ian Kennedy USC
    35 Dallas Buck Oregon State
    36 Chad Tracy Pepperdine
    37 Jeff Manship Notre Dame
    38 Jordan Newton Western Kentucky
    39 Jeff Samardzija Notre Dame
    40 Cyle Hankerd USC

    And yes, I do realize there is a space between Huff and Reynolds on the big board. It represents the simple dividing line between true first round talent, and the rest.

    * * * * *

    So, that should get us started on a wild day in which near no-hit bids, superstar injuries and rivalry blow outs all play second fiddle to the aluminum bat. Here's to hoping that, for at least today, scouts have priority over wallets on the organizational food chain.

    WTNYJune 05, 2006
    Jumping on the Mock Train
    By Bryan Smith

    Before the college season started, I wrote an article highlighting the top 20 2006 draft-eligible college players. It's now fun to look back at the article and see what the year provided, how many players had their fates changed in 2006. Today, I have another piece up at SI.com, this one providing stark contrast to the first.

    I was hesitant to write a mock draft for the site, it's dangerous territory to compete with Jim Callis, who predicted the top 18 picks correct last season. However, with a low set of expectations, the draft provides a puzzle of possibilities, a combination of trends and talents. I had fun with the top 30, stretching at times, and I imagine that in 24 hours, we'll be able to look back and laugh just the same as my first piece.

    However, while I'm in the predicting mood, here's a few more before Draft Day...

  • I have noted over and over again that I believe Notre Dame WR/RHP Jeff Samardzija will be the draft's biggest reach. I still think that will be true, and remain enamored with the possibility of him landing with the Diamondbacks, probably in slot 55. Given their first two selections, Samardzija might be outside of Arizona's price range, but their presence in the wide receiver's stomping grounds, South Bend, create an intriguing combination.

  • Dellin Betances has been quite the anomoly this spring, his stock changing often, his velocity reportedly down. However, players with his projectablity rarely find their way to Brooklyn, so the Yankees really should choose Betances at pick 41. If they can muster the courage to go with Pedro Beato in the first round, the Mets will truly be "on tilt" the rest of the day.

  • In Callis' mock of the top 15 picks, we can already see where I made a few mistakes. However, in most cases, the back-up choice I listed might be the man to go. The big exception is the note that Chris Parmalee is on the verge of a pre-draft deal, which certainly will shake things up.

  • My final prediction is that I will praise the organizations that spend picks on Mark Hamilton and Steven Wright on draft day. Others that pique my interest as post-round 1 gambles: Mike Felix (Troy), Milton Loo (Yavapai), Derrick Lutz (George Washington), Cory Rasmus (Ala. HS), Harold Mozingo (Va. Commonwealth), Josh Rodriguez (Rice).

    Leave your own predictions in the comments...

  • WTNYMay 31, 2006
    And So It Begins...
    By Bryan Smith

    It's always easiest to pick on the team chosen last. In college sports the postseason is simply an unjust finale to a year, in all the NCAA sports across the board. Every playoff system leaves room for argument, and as we build up our disdain, we let it out on team #64, or the selection committee that backed them.

    In baseball, those are one in the same. In the largest travesty of the 2006 College World Series tournament, Mississippi State University received a bid to play postseason ball. Their strongest argument, a red-hot start to the season, was topped by Old Dominion's better start. The argument that the SEC deserves more teams than most conference is negated by the exclusion of LSU, their first since 1989.

    In the end, the only piece of evidence left that makes sense is that the chair of the selection committee doubles as the MSU athletic director. No joke.

    Of course, this wasn't the selection committee's only mistake. There are plenty more - the pac-10 champion Oregon State University didn't receive a top 8 national seed, meaning they play Texas in the second round. But harping on injustices, however, is to ignore the fun tournament that starts this weekend and carries us to late June.

    If anything, we can just use the committee's mistakes as reasons to cheer. Root for Oregon State, boo Mississippi State, but in the end, allow yourself to be enraptured. If you are heading into the weekend without a lot of background on the CWS, here's a quick and dirty look at the nation's 16 regionals, to be played this weekend.

    Clemson Regional

    Participants (in order of seed): Clemson, Elon, Mississippi State, UNC Asheville

    There was no question among the selection committee who the top teams were -- Clemson, Rice -- the only problem was finding a ranking. Clemson received the nod, and as a result, the definitively less experienced two seed in Elon. However, the Elon offense is nothing to take lightly - six regular spots have an average over .300, and the team is hitting .305/.410/.477 overall. While I like SoCon Freshman of the Year Steven Hensley, who might pitch the Phoenix past MSU, Clemson has an insane amount of depth. Look for the likes of Tyler Colvin, Andy D'Alessio and Josh Cribb to cruise the Tigers into round 2.

    Pick: Clemson.

    Arkansas Regional

    Participants: Oklahoma st, Arkansas, Oral Roberts, Princeton

    This regional represents another postseason injustice: non-hosting one seeds. While the Cowboys deservedly received the top seed in this regional, the committee opted to play it in Fayetteville. This obviously works in Arkansas' favor, who will already have the dangerous Nick Schmidt (a surefire 2007 first rounder) ready to shut down the dangerous Oklahoma State bats. Oral Roberts walked through the Mid-Continent Conference, but don't depend on them for your upset. If you watch any of this regional, try the Schmidt-Corey Brown match-up, we'll be talking about both a lot in a year.

    Pick: Arkansas.

    Kentucky Regional

    Participants: Kentucky, College of Charleston, Notre Dame, Ball State

    Kentucky very well might be the Cinderella story of the season; the most unlikely of 40-win SEC teams. However, Coach of the Year John Cohen has an offensive bunch, led by Ryan Strieby and John Shelby the team slugged .530 on the year. However, the Fighting Irish just might have the arms to quiet the Wildcats. Jeff Manship is one of the draft's most underrated prospects, but if he gets the nod in an opening round clash against College of Charleston, we might be forced to see Jeff Samardzija get more airtime. I don't like the guy's pro prospects, but in college, his mid-90s fastball is a good bet to get the job done.

    Pick: Notre Dame.

    Georgia Tech Regional

    Participants: Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Stetson

    OK, we have already found a better sophomore potential pitcher-batter match up: David Price vs. Matt Wieters. Price is the odds-on favorite to be the first collegiate player drafted in a year, and if scouts continue to prefer Wieters at catcher (he doubles as a closer), then Matt could be the first hitter taken. But, these players are just faces on a pair of star-studded teams. Price is backed by an offense that includes a fantastic pair of Freshman: Pedro Alvarez and Ryan Flaherty. Tech is a veteran-led team, expect Wes Hodges, Whit Robbins and Jeff Kindel to attack Price. The Commodores are truly a team built for 2007, and given Price's late season slide, the Yellow Jackets should cruise.

    Pick: Georgia Tech.

    Fullerton Regional

    Participants: Cal State Fullerton, Fresno State, San Diego, St. Louis

    Fullerton is simply a powerhouse, a well-built George Horton factory. This year's team is no exception, led by sophomore ace Wes Roemer - who walked just four batters all year...in 125.2 innings. CSUF does not make mistakes and has depth, a team built for the Super Regionals. I like San Diego to upset Fresno State for rights to lose to the Titans, as Fresno suspended their only significant offensive threat - Beau Mills - for the remainder of the season. San Diego has a good group of arms including Josh Butler and Brian Matusz, they might scare Fullerton, but they won't have the offense to beat them.

    Pick: Cal State Fullerton.

    Pepperdine Regional

    Participants: Pepperdine, UCLA, UC Irvine, Missouri

    Underline it, circle it and star it; this is the best regional, hands down. Pepperdine was a surprise regional host, but as a result, drew the most difficult four seed. Missouri struggled all season with junior ace Max Scherzer hurt and outfielder Hunter Mense struggling. With Max back, this is a dangerous team. If the Waves could make it past the Tigers, they would face the winner of the John Savage match-up: his new club (UCLA) or his old one (UC Irvine). UCLA is a good team and should make it past Irvine, and I like Scherzer to pitch his way past the host; he's been too good the last two weeks. The deciding game should be UCLA's David Huff against Missouri's Nathan Culp, two of the 2006 draft's best southpaws. Huff is a favorite of mine, and the better pitcher, but I'll take the Tigers as my shocker.

    Pick: Missouri.

    North Carolina Regional

    Participants: North Carolina, Winthrop, UNC Wilmington, Maine

    The Tar Heels were surely one of the last picks to host a regional, especially after not winning a game in the ACC Tournament. But for the first time in more than 20 years, Chapel Hill will be host, and it couldn't be a better group of arms to showcase. UNC will be so tough to beat with Daniel Bard, Andrew Miller, and Robert Woodard all rested and waiting. The team is prone to making mistakes, but I'm not convinced Winthrop is strong enough for the effort. If they pitch their stud freshman, Alex Wilson, against Wilmington, there will just not be enough in the tank to face UNC. If they try to wait with Wilson, they might not even make it past the Seahawks. Lots of pressure on North Carolina to come through, and I think they'll do it.

    Pick: North Carolina.

    Alabama Regional

    Participants: Alabama, Troy, Southern Miss, Jacksonville St.

    Argue with me if you'd like, but this should not be a difficult weekend for Alabama. At all. I say this knowing full well about Mike Felix, the Troy junior two-way player that might be the most underrated player in the country. I also am well aware of Alabama's offensive problems, with a team OPS just north of .800. But this team can pitch, and they should pitch their way to the super regionals. Freshman Tommy Hunter should get the opener against Southern Miss, as 'Bama saves ace Wade Leblanc, and his 10-0 perfect record, to face Felix, who struck out 12 more batters in 20 less innings on the year.

    Pick: Alabama.

    Rice Regional

    Participants: Rice, Arizona St, Baylor, Prairie View

    I tend to disagree with the committee; Rice is the best team in the country. After starting a bit slow, to use relatively, Rice has been on a tear for the last two months. They destroy anything they come across. That being true, this shouldn't be a hard weekend for the Owls. Arizona State has been in the postseason many times, and should come well coached, but this is another team so dependent upon young hitters. Freshman Brent Wallace, Ike Davis, and Preston Paramore are all key parts to that offense. When these players face senior right-hander Eddie Degerman, who despite a lackluster pro profile does deserve to be in the discussion for pitcher of the year, expect Degerman to come out on top.

    Pick: Rice.

    Oklahoma Regional

    Participants: Oklahoma, Houston, Wichita State, TCU

    Another very deep regional, and like my pick in the Pepperdine regional, I'm choosing the best arm: Brad Lincoln. The Cougars had quite the argument for hosting a regional themselves, and Lincoln is the reason why - no player in the country carries his team like Brad. But don't take that as a knock on Houston, they have the depth to compete with anyone thanks to a solid group of arms. Wichita State and TCU both seem to be a year away. Oklahoma is an intriguing pick, a veteran team led by senior Daniel McCutchen, but when he faces Lincoln, the Player of the Year will rise to the top.

    Pick: Houston.

    Virginia Regional

    Participants: Virginia, South Carolina, Evansville, Lehigh

    Pass. This is not the best of regionals, as Virginia doesn't strike me as a legit top seed. However, thanks to South Carolina's youth, there is no real direct threat to the Cavaliers. South Carolina is so talented; both Justin Smoak and Reese Havens turned down serious money to become Gamecocks, but neither should be leaned on against Sean Doolittle. The Virginia star beat out the likes of Andrew Miller, Matt Antonelli and Shane Robinson for ACC Player of the Year honors - the result of double-digit win and double totals. Look for Virginia to ride him to the second round.

    Pick: Virginia.

    Georgia Regional

    Participants: Georgia, Florida St, Jacksonville, Sacred Heart

    Georgia struggled in the first half of the season on weekends, losing numerous weekend series before capturing their last 4, and five of their last 6. Their late season success can be credited to Brooks Brown, as well as hitters Joey Side and Josh Morris. All three are juniors on the way out, and are dying to show freshman like Gordon Beckham the way to get it done. Standing in their way is Florida State, who counter Beckham with a freshman shortstop of their own - Buster Posey. The series will likely come down to Bryan Henry against Brown, and with stud sophomore closer Josh Fields waiting in the wings, it's hard to pick against the Bulldogs.

    Pick: Georgia.

    Nebraska Regional

    Participants: Nebraska, Miami (FL), San Francisco, Manhattan

    This should be a cakewalk for Nebraska, as this is really a down season for the Hurricanes. In fact, a first round loss to San Francisco would not be too surprising. The Cornhuskers have such a deep pitching staff that even Manhattan - who does have a 2007 top five rounder - will be getting a top-3 round caliber talent in Tony Watson. Once Joba Chamberlain takes the mound in Lincoln to advance Nebraska, it's over. Chamberlain's profile was built upon last year's CWs, expect more of the same in 2006.

    Pick: Nebraska.

    Mississippi Regional

    Participants: Mississippi, Tulane, South Alabama, Bethune-Cookman

    To me, the Tulane-South Alabama stands as one of the most intriguing first round match-ups. Tulane, in hopes of making a Super Regional, will likely hold off on ace sophomore Sean Morgan, hoping to throw him against Old Miss. South Alabama, on the other hand, will have all hands on deck in hopes of beating Tulane, including the nation's most prolific pitcher: P.J. Walters. Walters pitched well in the Cape last summer and has been successful for South Alabama all season - certainly an interesting mid rounds selection. If Walters really wants to make a name for himself, it would be by beating Tulane. I don't think he will, however, as I believe the Green Wave's bats will carry them past not only South Alabama, but Ole Miss as well.

    Pick: Tulane.

    Oregon State Regional

    Participants: Oregon State, Kansas, Hawaii, Wright State

    For two years now the Beavers have been a really fun team to root for - college baseball's Mystery, Alaska. The team added even more in terms of likability after getting screwed by the selection committee. Put an adoring fan base together with Dallas Buck, Jonah Nickerson and Kevin Gunderson, all juniors, and you have a regional winner. Kansas is the Kentucky of the Big 12, even more apt after their recent Big 12 tournament win. But if Hawaii ace Steven Wright shuts them down this weekend and upsets the Jayhawks, don't be surprised. In the end, Oregon State, and it won't be particularly close.

    Pick: Oregon State.

    Texas Regional

    Participants: Texas, NC State, Stanford, Texas-Arlington

    There isn't a bad team in this regional - there isn't a consistent one either. Texas was so beatable earlier in the year, coming out of the gates losing to San Diego handily. But the Longhorns have turned it around and enter the tournament ready for another big run, Drew Stubbs and Kyle McCulloch's last hurrah. Without Andrew Brackman, who wasn't even good this year, NC State doesn't have that shutdown pitcher, so the second round match could have a football final score - Texas, 14; NC State, 6.

    Pick: Texas.

    * * * * *

    First of all, let me again attempt to urge you all to watch college baseball when at all possible in the next three weeks. The game of aluminum is a fun one to watch, even if you have to wince through multi-error games. Real emotion will be on display every night, and some of this year and next year's best talents will be passing through television screens and ballparks across the country.

    Finally, I know you guys want some "win-it-all" picks. I'll predict the specific Super Regional games next weekend, but let's cross our fingers that we get some dandies like Rice v. Houston, Oregon State v. Texas, UNC v. Alabama and Clemson v. Arkansas. Talk about dramatic baseball. Until then, here's my first guess at the CWS: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Fullerton, Alabama, Houston, Georgia, Nebraska, Texas.

    At that point, the hottest team wins, so I'm going to make a surprise choice and pick Alabama to win it all, riding on the veteran arm of Wade Leblanc and Tommy Hunter's new arm. But in the final I think 'Bama plays Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers deserve as good of odds as anyone to win it this year.

    Now go, my readers, and fill out those brackets!

    WTNYMay 26, 2006
    Tiger Bite
    By Bryan Smith

    For years, promises were heard and patience was preached. In time, Mike Illitch would be the type of owner that spends money. Over time, Dave Dombrowski would give the Detroit Tigers his patented Florida facelift.

    For years, Tigers fans would have to watch the Indians build a dynasty, the Twins make something out of nothing, and the White Sox win a world championship. They were simply instructed to sit back and take it, their day of reckoning was promised to be right around the corner.

    For now, these Detroit fans are starting to believe. Maybe Jim Leyland can still manage. Maybe Dambrowski can pull a rabbit from his hat twice. Maybe Illitch will eventually spend the necessary money. Their belief is seen by a recent upswing in attendance numbers - three straight 25,000 home games - that should only continue with three consecutive home series against the Indians, Yankees and Red Sox, respectively.

    Personally, I do not believe. The White Sox are too good, too built to last. But this column is not about the south side, but about Motown, and the cautious optimism slowly protruding from it. While I'm far from convinced this is the season the Tigers snap their losing streak, I do see good things happening. Worth noting:

  • For all the contact problems that Curtis Granderson has, the kid can play. Only 10 times in 47 games has Granderson not struck out in a game; he's on pace to exceed 150 strikeouts, making a high batting average very difficult. However, Granderson makes up for his contact inabilities with good power, great defense and fantastic discipline. His ISO seems to be settling in the .210 range, his Rate2 in center stands at 113, and Granderson has 26 walks in just north of 200 plate appearances. Not every formula for success reads the same, but whichever one that Granderson is using, it's working.

  • Kudos is definitely in order for the Tigers having the guts to give Marcus Thames a good number of at-bats. Thames has been able to hit for years; few hitters in professional baseball have a more prolific track record against southpaws. However, high strikeout rates and mediocre defense has plagued Thames for years, even following a double-digit home run season in 2004. At this point, Thames offers little long-term value for the club, but the ability to make small findings of his stature speaks volumes to the aptitude of the front office.

  • The front office also obviously has good drafting skills, as Justin Verlander has hit an unbelievable stride of late. After not pitching great in his first 2 May appearances, Verlander's last 2 starts (granted against AAA offenses in MIN and KC) have built a 17 inning scoreless streak. Verlander is such a fun pitcher to watch, a player that keeps his velocity until the end of games, and also throws a nasty, nasty curve. Verlander was far from a sure thing in a draft that included the fantastic Rice trio, but years removed, he was probably the best pick of the top ten.

  • In the American League East, it appears that Jon Papelbon has decided his own future with a fantastic start in the closer's role. After notching his third win and lowering his ERA to 3.22 on Thursday, it's impossible not to wonder if Joel Zumaya has not done the same. Scouts always believed that Zumaya's future likely was in the bullpen, and this spring, Jim Leyland was smart enough to speed up his timetable. And while Zumaya is prone to the occasional home run -- the longball has been responsible for 3 of his 4 earned run outings -- his dominance in a short role is undeniable. The other route, which Tigers fans should be growing increasingly afraid of, is the Scott Williamson route. After winning 12 games in a dominant 1999 reliever season, the Reds relief-to-starter experiment in 2000 ended poorly, creating a health hazard. At this point, leaving Zumaya in the bullpen might be for the best.

  • Soon, it will be in the pen that Zumaya should have some pitching prospect company. While Kevin Whelan has seen control problems slow his progress in high-A, the Tigers seem to be growing arms at will these days. The next starter-turned-bullpen ace should come via Humberto Sanchez, who seems to be continuing upon his Arizona Fall League success. This season, the 6-6, 230 pound giant has allowed just 38 hits in 57.2 innings, while striking out 68. Sanchez may still have a career in starting left, but teamed with Zumaya, the Tigers could have bullpen dominance for a decade.

    So, as you can see, the newfound Detroit optimism exists for a reason, even if it currently stands a bit overabundant. In a group of players like Granderson, Verlander, Zumaya and others, as well as a good front office, the pieces are slowly fitting into place. And with a bit more patience, Tigers fans are really going to have a team to stand behind.

  • WTNYMay 24, 2006
    Preliminary Bryan Board
    By Bryan Smith

    For many of the college players that will hear their names called in the upcoming draft, this weekend is their last to shine. Many are already finished, and many more will see their stock stay volatile as they enter the collegiate postseason. With less than three weeks until the draft, uncertainty still surrounds the last weekend of the NCAA regular season.

    Before the craziness of conference and NCAA tournaments creates a large stir in the draft rankings, I wanted to release my first big board of the spring. Before the season, I wrote a top 20 college prospects article for SI.com, but since then, so much has changed.

    Please note that the upcoming rankings are in no way the order I think players will be drafted in this June, far from it. Instead, these rankings indicate my opinions based upon statistics and conversations with those inside the game. I chose to keep high school players out of the rankings because I cannot judge them as well, and will leave that to far smarter men.

    So, if I was in charge of creating a draft board for a Major League organization, the top 25 of the college version would read like this...

    1. Andrew Miller, LHP: North Carolina
    His lack of sheer dominance this spring is a concern for a $5M investment, but Miller is worth the money with great stuff and oodles of projectablity.

    2. Brad Lincoln, RHP: Houston
    Has consistently dominated mediocre competition in 2006 thanks to a lights out fb-cv combination. Improvement in change will determine pro success.

    3. Evan Longoria, IF: Long Beach State
    Will hit at the next level, as he has been one of the best on Friday nights. At this point, profiles at second or third, and versatility creates a nice utility infielder fallback option.

    4. Max Scherzer, RHP: Missouri
    His start against Texas last weekend should be a tell-tale sign to organizations that Max is back. With full health, Scherzer could challenge Miller for top spot.

    5. Tim Lincecum, RHP: Washington
    I love the comparisons to Scot Shields, who Lincecum could be competing against for Best Set-Up Men honors as early as 2007. I just don't see the potential as a starter.

    6. Luke Hochevar, RHP: Tennessee/Fort Worth Cats
    Seattle Mariners have such an interesting choice in the fifth spot: pony up on Scherzer, Lincecum or Hochevar? For many reasons, the latter choice would be defendable.

    7. Drew Stubbs, OF: Texas
    Torii Hunter is the closest comparison to Stubbs: great defense, good power, and poor contact abilities. He could be worse, but at the low end, he's a good bench outfielder.

    8. Brandon Morrow, RHP: California
    Morrow comes at you hard, with a big fastball and a good splitter. He is another that screams future reliever to me, but a bit of refinement could lend an even higher ceiling.

    9. Joba Chamberlain, RHP: Nebraska
    Joba could stand to use a postseason similar to his 2005 efforts, but no matter what, teams love his future innings-eater potential and hope his fastball returns to the consistent mid-90s.

    10. Daniel Bard, RHP: North Carolina
    So many questions surround a seven figure arm, as Bard has truly been inconsistent since a fabulous freshman season. Multiple first-round pick organizations should gamble.

    11. Matt Antonelli, IF: Wake Forest
    I love thinking of Antonelli as an athletic Edgardo Alfonzo; his 2006 improvements should cap a dominant calendar year for Antonelli.

    12. Greg Reynolds, RHP: Stanford
    For me, the ceiling isn't there. He could eat innings, stay at the back end of the rotation, but if he's much better than that, why doesn't he strike anyone out?

    13. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP: Missouri State
    A pretty complete package, Sinkbeil has three good pitches and a good pitcher's body. Should fly through an organization to the middle of a rotation.

    14. Dave Huff, LHP: UCLA
    I fell for Huff following his Cape performance last year, where he looked primed for a good spring. Results have followed, and Huff is the '06 draft's first "crafty southpaw."

    15. Ian Kennedy, RHP: USC
    I know, I know, it's been an awful three months now. But not many players have 2 seasons like Kennedy and completely fall apart forever. Will eat innings somewhere.

    16. Matt LaPorta, 1B: Florida
    More weaknesses than strengths, no matter how far he can hit a baseball. LaPorta might be fun to watch, but the caveats should worry people.

    17. Kyle McCulloch, RHP: Texas
    Similar to Reynolds, pitching with solid-not-great results against very good competition. Kyle's pitchability ranks off the charts, but his ceiling is simply low.

    18. Justin Masterson, RHP: San Diego State
    Go straight to the bullpen, directly to the bullpen. Do not pass go, do not start any games, and do not collect $200.

    19. Drew Carpenter, RHP: Long Beach State
    After outperforming teammate all spring, Carpenter closed the year as the Dirtbags' Friday starter. Had many bright spots in 2006, and is a supplemental-type pitcher.

    20. Mark Melancon, RHP: Arizona
    The health red flag is a cause for concern, but Melancon was playing so well before going down. A calculated risk at the tail end of the first round that could pay off big.

    21. Wes Hodges, 3B: Georgia Tech
    A big year put him in the top ten, but an inconsistent 2006 may have cost him a first round selection. Hodges won't ever be a Major League star, but could be a solid-to-average third baseman.

    22. Jared Hughes, RHP: Long Beach State
    The Cape's 2005 darling has not pitched well of late, and his draft status has tanked. But teams love the sinker, and he makes a great early 2nd-round pick.

    23. Mark Hamilton, 1B: Tulane
    It wouldn't surprise me if Hamilton outplays LaPorta in the pros, where he truly has Ryan Klesko potential. Whoever picks him will get big points from me.

    24. Brooks Brown, RHP: Georgia
    Another great Cape pitcher that has found mixed results in 2006. A big finish has helped his status, and his controlled 93+ mph fastball is looking more and more appealing.

    25. Wade Leblanc, LHP: Alabama
    Gave up way, way, way too many home runs this season, but every other peripheral was fantastic in a tough conference. A solid, if unspectacular, second round choice.

    Final Honorable Mentions: Dallas Buck (RHP-OSU), Josh Butler (RHP-USD), Josh Rodriguez (SS-Rice), Chad Tracy (C-PEP), Steven Wright (RHP-HAW).

    WTNYMay 23, 2006
    Disappointing Midwest Teenagers
    By Bryan Smith

    Daunting. Professional baseball must be daunting to teenagers at first, given the degree of difference that their first full professional season entails. Away from home for the first time. Baseball everyday. For more than five months.

    After falling in love with high school draft prospects, and paying large bonuses to deter them from college, Major League organizations ask a lot of their bonus babies. Furthermore, these players must deal with the stress of high pressure, as many are associated with high draft selections. Life is difficult, and oftentimes, baseball -- for the first time in their lives -- does not come easy.

    Each year, a traditional article of mine is to identify a number of prospects that I believe will break out. In preparation for this list, I look for trends from past breakout prospects, and attempt to apply that to a new brand of prospects. Certain strikeout and walk rates, ISOs in a given stadium, a telling split. And as I've pointed out this year already, with the case of Reid Brignac, a less-than-stellar Midwest League debut.

    In 2004, both Brandon Wood and Adam Jones played in the Midwest League during their first professional seasons, at the ages of 19. Neither played particularly well, both had OPS below .750, neither lived up to the first round status. It wasn't until the next season, when professional baseball became more routine, that results started to match their obvious talent. After missing out on the cases of Wood and Jones in 2004, Reid Brignac's 2005 sent out sirens to me that he was on the verge of a breakout. So far, that looks correct.

    Each year there are examples of this, so I recently decided we need a better system of evaluating teenage Midwest League performance. For whatever reason, teenage struggles happen more often in the Midwest, likely because of more difficult stadiums, pitchers, and colder weather. We'll save a look at the South Atlantic League for another article.

    The Baseball Cube, a fantastic resource for minor league research, has full data available since the 2002 season. In that timeframe, I went through every Midwest League team, and looked for players during their age 19 seasons, which mostly covered their first run through the MWL. I also looked for players with more than 100 at-bats at the level, to avoid sample size issues. Given those parameters, I found 45 player-seasons since 2002 from which to create a baseline.

    AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
    16,531 .265 .334 .391 .725

    Normally, a .725 OPS at any level would not raise eyebrows for a prospect, but for a 19-year-old in the Midwest League, it's average. However, when combing through the list of players, I noticed a group that was more prolific than the rest: first basemen. Five nineteen year olds played first base in the Midwest League since 2002 (Prince Fielder, Kila Kaaihue, Daric Barton, Casey Kotchman, Brad Nelson) and their combined batting lines is an astounding .289/.390/.480, and they make up for nearly a quarter of the home runs.

    So, I went back through the study and corresponding Excel spreadsheet, and eliminated the five aforementioned players. First basemen are at the tail end of the defensive spectrum, and their ability to perform with the bat is paramount. How have the other 7 positions on the field fared in the MWL at 19?

    AVG OBP SLG OPS
    .262 .326 .379 .705

    Certainly, we can see the effect the first baseman had, as the average OPS drops to .705. Furthermore, there is an increase in the strikeout percentage (which went from 19.7% with all 45 to 20.0% without the 1B) and a decrease in walk percentage (9.3% down to 8.5%). Suddenly, the player with the .725 OPS is not even just average, but nearly 3% above it.

    However, this was not quite enough. Given the fact that Wood, Jones and Brignac were all middle infielders, I wanted to further adjust by position. In fact, just last week, I mentioned Paul Kelly as an early potential 2007 breakout, seeing another teenage middle infielder hitting with sub par results. So, going back through the Excel spreadsheet, I eliminated all players that didn't play in the middle infield during their Midwest League stay. While we are left with a number of the original bad players, beyond Wood, Jones and Brignac lay other talents like Ruben Gotay, Ronny Cedeno, Erick Aybar, Josh Barfield and a few other good prospects.

    A look at the average middle infield teenage Midwest League batting line, covering 24 players since 2002:

    AVG OBP SLG OPS
    .260 .319 .368 .687

    Another decrease. The average ISO is no down to .108, eighteen points lower than it was with the corner infielders, catchers and outfielders added on. Players are still striking out at about a 19-20% rate, but walks are down to about 7.8%, in relation to at-bats. Undoubtedly, players in this category should have even lower expectations than the rest of the group.

    * * * * *

    This season, I have counted 19 teenage players that currently reside on Midwest League rosters. At the end of the season, it's likely that many of those nineteen will not have impressive batting lines; many will look like early disappointments. However, this may not be true.

    What I hope this article did is provide some context to teenage, Midwest League play. Even if MWL 2006 teenager Bryan Anderson finishes the season with a .270/.330/.400 line, we should consider it a small success. If Paul Kelly puts up that line, it will be an astounding forty-three points above the average for middle infielders at that age and level.

    I hope this will be the first article in a series, as we also must tackle how our 45 test cases fared after exiting the MWL, how teenagers have done in the South Atlantic League, and how teenage pitchers have done in full season baseball. As I've said in the past, context is everything in minor league baseball, and there is much work left to be done in quantifying the importance of youth.

    WTNYMay 19, 2006
    The Next Batch
    By Bryan Smith

    It seems the Twins are finally coming to their senses. After too long of letting Kyle Lohse provide bad results to their rotation, Minnesota decided to replace his rotation spot with Francisco Liriano. The future ace had dominated in the bullpen, but like Johan Santana so many years before, was waiting to wreak havoc as a starter.

    The Twins slow decision to move to their youth is odd considering an organization that developed 21st century success through their 1990s developmental program. Suddenly an organization that had so aggressively used the likes of Torii Hunter and company was keeping Liriano in the rotation and Jason Barlett in AAA. And while Bartlett remains in Rochester, Liriano seems to be the first domino in the next Twins youth movement.

    While confidence in their youth seems to have eroded in the last few years, the Twins ability to develop prospects has continued. Minnesota is one of the best drafting teams in the business, showing very little attention to whether a player attended college or not, whether he's a hitter or pitcher. The Twins take the best player on their draft board, and more often than not, the player succeeds.

    For years, the top of Twin prospect lists was filled with fantastic talents, from Liriano to Joe Mauer. Suddenly, this season the minor leagues started with no dominant talent, but significant depth. Now past the quarter mark of the season, it seems apt time to look at how I would assess the current Twins farm system.

    1. Matt Garza - RHP

    With Francisco Liriano moving to the Major Leagues and exhausting his prospect status, the elite top Twins prospect spot was up for grabs at the beginning of the 2006 season. Not even two months into the season, another pitcher, 2005 first round pick Matt Garza, has taken hold. Garza, a product of Fresno State, entered the Twins system a unique blend of polish and projectablity.

    Generally, former collegiate Friday Night pitchers are expected to cruise to AA, facing as few roadbumps as possible on their way. Garza excelled in this regard, making it through the Florida State League without a scratch. In 44.1 innings at Fort Myers, Garza allowed just 27 hits and 11 walks while striking out 53. His ERA was 1.42 upon promotion to the Eastern League.

    Last night, Garza proved he belonged on top of the list. While it's hard to learn anything from a single start, Garza proved he belonged in AA in his debut: 7.2 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 13 K. After allowing two of the first five batters he faced to reach base, Garza retired the next 19 hitters before a walk ended his afternoon. With problems in the Twins rotation currently being patched by Boof Bonser, some are hoping Garza makes a meteoric rise to the Majors. However, the Twins would be smartest -- and I don't doubt that they will -- to let Garza take his bumps and bruises in AA.

    While Garza isn't on the same plane as Twins prospects of lore, he has a #2/3 ceiling, and should be in the Majors to stay by 2007.

    2. Jason Kubel - OF/DH

    Many hoped that Kubel's polished bat would start the season in the Minnesota lineup, providing aid to the Twins disastrous offensive problems. However, a lackluster spring coupled with a year away from baseball led to Jason's demotion. Since rejoining the Redwings, Kubel has been solid, if not the International League MVP candidate that many had hoped/predicted.

    I am giving Kubel the benefit of the doubt by retaining his high prospect status, but he's a slump away from slipping a bit down the team rankings. I like that Jason is still making contact at a solid rate, and while not proving to be a HR hitter, twelve extra base hits in 106 at-bats is good. However, Kubel's sudden desertion of the base on balls is a concern, only 8 walks so far.

    Kubel is a solid prospect at this point, but I don't think he is the middle of the order hitter that many had hoped. Look for Jason to continue hitting well in AAA, and upon promotion, succeeding in the Majors. But please, no more Edgar Martinez comparisons. He ain't that good.

    3. Matt Moses - 3B

    Few things must excite Twins fans more than the notion of a third base prospect, currently forced to sit through Tony Batista manning the position. And while many likely believe that Moses can't get to the Majors fast enough, the Twins patience with their former top pick should pay off. After back problems in 2004, Moses exploded onto the prospect scene last year, and thus far, has proven his breakout to not be a farce.

    Problem is, Moses has also yet to turn on the gas this season. In each offensive category, an improvement could be made. Twenty-nine strikeouts in 131 ABs isn't great. Neither is 10 extra base hits during that time, even if five are home runs. Finally, a third baseman should be walking more than 10 times in 145 plate appearances.

    With no real competition to speak of, it's safe to say that Moses is the Twins future at the hot corner. But unless Garza accelerates soon, it will be hard to project anything beyond the average 3B for his future.

    4. Glen Perkins - LHP

    Confusing early results so far. Perkins, a former first round choice from nearby University of Minnesota, Perkins pitched great last year through high-A before hitting a wall at AA. But good-stuff southpaws are a rare breed, and the Twins promised to use patience with Perkins. So far, Perkins second trial of the Eastern League has gone pretty well.

    But, for some reason, things have not gone extraordinarily. Perkins is on a prospect-laden staff in AA, joined by the likes of Errol Simonitsch (2.51 ERA), Adam Harben (2.12) and Justin Jones (3.25). Perkins' 3.58 ERA is the worst of the group, odd because the southpaw also has the group's best peripheral numbers. I am a big fan of Perkins blend of control and stuff, and certainly his handedness helps things. But before becoming an elite prospect, Perkins has to get his ERA down, a feat possibly made easier by reduced HR/9 numbers.

    5. Kevin Slowey - RHP

    Another early season example of the college pitcher dominating A-ball competition, Kevin Slowey was Garza's running mate in Fort Myers. For some reason, when the Twins decided to move Garza to the Eastern League, Slowey stayed. Apparently, the right-hander's 63/2 strikeout-to-walk ratio was not good enough for the Twins.

    Drafting Slowey from Winthrop, the Twins expected to get a polished pitcher. Never one to throw a hard fastball, Slowey has always depended on fantastic control and a better change up. By throwing the ball where he wants and changing speeds, Slowey has developed a formula for success. But the Twins have seen dominating performances turn to rust in the road between Fort Myers and New Britain before (see: Perkins), so approaching Slowey carefully is probably for the best.

    At this point in the season, Slowey's numbers are simply out of this world. However, few types of pitchers demand AA results before proper evaluation like Slowey's kind, lacking any projectablity to speak of.

    6. Anthony Swarzak - RHP

    After watching a player in person, at his worst, the memory is difficult to forget. Last year, following his fantastic May, I saw the beginning of a June Swoon for Anthony Swarzak. Ever since, I stayed farther away from his bandwagon than most. This season, that mentality seems to be paying dividends. Swarzak has not been bad this season, striking out 40 in 39 innings. But, accusations of being both hittable (44 hits) and wild (20 walks) is not a good omen. I was concerned last year that Swarzak's high-80s fastball was not enough, and I will stick to that belief. Swarzak will always get noticed thanks to a great hook, but without a good, controlled fastball, Swarzak's curve will go to waste.

    7. Alex Romero - OF

    One of the missed breakout predictions I had from 2005, Romero is having an interesting season so far. First assigned to AAA, the Twins rushed to a demotion when Romero was hitting just .192 through eight games. The decision seemed a bit forced - Alex had a good BB/K ratio and seemed on the verge of turning things around - but promoting confidence at an easier level is defensible. Since being moved back to the Eastern League, Romero has done very well, hitting .277/.362/.458. For about three years now, Romero has continued to be good at everything, but great at nothing, the sign of a future fourth outfielder. With good speed, better patience, a fantastic ability to make contact and a left-handed bat, Romero is as good a bet as any to have a long Major League bench career. But until his defense improves or his power blossoms, a starting spot seems like a stretch for Romero.

    8. Eduardo Morlan - RHP

    Alright, now we're talking. Morlan, who turned 20 years old during Spring Training, is an exciting prospect. A former Cuban, the Twins grabbed Morlan in the third round of the 2004 draft, obsessed with the stuff he would bring to the system: mid-90s fastball, a very good breaking pitch, and a solid change. Morlan lacked control and profiled as a reliever, but given his stuff, worse things could be said. This season, the report is still the same. In the Midwest League, Morlan has surrendered just 13 hits in 25.1 innings, actually allowing more walks: 15. He strikes batters out at a great rate (34), and keeps the ball in the park. Right now, the Twins have jerked Morlan between the rotation and the bullpen, but given his success, expect an extended starter trial to undergo soon. Morlan's stuff is second just to Garza's on this list, as is his ceiling, but few players could flame out as easily.

    9. Paul Kelly - SS

    Now that Reid Brignac's breakout if becoming official, I'm really starting to believe that teenage Midwest League middle infielders should have reduced expectations. To just use recent examples, the aggregate Midwest League OPS of Adam Jones, Brignac and Brandon Wood -- all of whom played in the MWL at 19 as shortstops -- was .727. Kelly's, thus far, is sitting at .724. I am beginning to become high on Kelly, who has shown gap power (10 2Bs in 149 ABs) that could eventually provide home runs, patience (17 BBs) and a good enough ability to make contact. Kelly is likely going to have a modest season, mostly generating excitement through doubles and good defense. But on the horizon seems to be a breakout, unfortunately Paul's next stop is not the California League.

    10. Denard Span - OF

    If nothing else, I can respect a prospect with a back-up plan. While, without a doubt, Span would ideally like to become the next Twin leadoff hitter, there is another route he can take: fifth outfielder. Span, a fantastic defensive outfielder, also has the great contact skills associated with good top-of-the-order players. Unfortunately, Span doesn't walk a ton, and offers even less power. After homering in his first game, Span has just three extra-base hits since, all doubles, and looks to be a future bench player if things don't change soon. However, a bench career would be helped if Span became a better baserunner; he has been successful on just five of eight attempts so far, bringing his success ratio under 66%. A frustrating talent, to be sure.

    And those that deserve mention outside the top ten, in no particular order...

    The Twins system is loaded, so a breakdown of the top ten cannot even do it justice. Just outside the top ten were a pair of AA pitchers, Adam Harben and Justin Jones, both of which have control problems, both of which probably will need moves to the bullpen to make any real success happen ... Trevor Plouffe began the season hailed by many as a breakout candidate, but his hitting problems have continued. In addition to a complete lack of power at the plate, I think Plouffe is the rare example of a player too selective at the plate: 24 walks in about 150 plate appearances! ... In fact, Plouffe's double play partner, Alexi Casilla, might be the better prospect. Acquired in a trade for J.C. Romero, Casilla has good contact ability (21 K in 157 AB) and great speed up the middle. Likely a future bench player ... Kyle Waldrop has not pitched good enough in his second Midwest League go-around so far, still proving to be too hittable. I don't think the fastball will ever be good enough for sustained success ... Pat Neshek is the most interesting story in the farm system, a former 6th round pick (from Butler University) that entered the year with a career 2.22 minor league ERA. This season, in AAA, Neshek has struck out 49 batters in 27.2 innings. Other than a high HR rate, all signs seem to be go for Neshek's big league promotion ... Henry Sanchez was the rare example of a first round high school first baseman in 2005, but his early results have been very damning. After an early season power surge, Sanchez has allowed his OPS to drop to .660 while striking out in nearly 40% of his at-bats ... I'll close things out by mentioning two completely different pitchers: J.D. Durbin and Brian Duensing. Durbin, a prospect in the system for ages, has looked good in AAA so far except for a very high walk ratio. His move to relief needs to be made soon. Duensing is just in low-A, but he's far more polished than Durbin. Too early to get any good readings from Duensing's numbers, but he could enter legit prospect status if he replaced Kevin Slowey soon in the Fort Myers rotation.

    WTNYMay 17, 2006
    What They Have Done For Us Lately
    By Bryan Smith

    Last week in this space, I took a different look at the nation's best college hitters: examining each by their Friday Night performance. Given this split information, we could quickly identify the players performing at the highest levels against their best competition. Suddenly, qualms about Matt Antonelli's performance against top programs were erased.

    My goal entering this week was to unveil another collegiate stat, this time allowing us to look at pichers in a different way. However, today offers no new statistic, no rock turned over for the first time. However, in my game log pursuits, I did realize a quick-and-dirty system for evaluating one of the most important qualities for a top draft pick: momentum.

    Ask Lance Broadway, who went from third round material to becoming a first round choice in a matter of weeks. Broadway has been good this season, validating the selection that many called a reach. However, each year it seems a pitcher rises in May up draft boards wih a good few weeks.

    Today, we will be looking at how the top ten pitchers in the country have done in their last five appearances. Now this group has been, for the most part, considered first round talent from the get-go, today is merely to introduce the style. In the coming weeks, I will profile more pitchers as we try to identify this year's Broadway.

    For their last five weeks, I have compiled each pitcher's counting stats, as well as two other factors. I will provide the average ISR for the opponents faced over that time period, as well as the average game score in the last five weeks. Game score is not perfect, but it's the best method in providing perspective with the dominance of an outing. Baseball's top ten pitchers...

    Name School IP H ER K BB ISR Ave GS
    Brad Lincoln Houston 38.0 28 7 49 8 97.2 71.4 GS
    Greg Reynolds Stanford 40.0 31 10 35 10 31.4 66.0 GS
    Tim Lincecum Washington 35.0 36 12 57 15 43.6 64.6 GS
    Dave Huff UCLA 45.1 40 15 33 6 41.2 63.8 GS
    Brandon Morrow California 36.1 36 7 33 13 25.0 63.4 GS
    Kyle McCulloch Texas 28.0 32 9 23 7 46.4 57.2 GS
    Daniel Bard North Carolina 30.1 26 9 28 13 85.8 55.6 GS
    Andrew Miller North Carolina 36.2 34 10 26 13 85.8 54.2 GS
    J. Chamberlain Nebraska 33.2 34 17 46 14 31.8 53.8 GS
    Ian Kennedy USC 34.0 37 15 33 6 41.2 50.0 GS

    Brad Lincoln obviously gets points for most impressive on this list, with the signficantly highest game score. However, during that time period, Lincoln faced three teams over Boyd Nation's top 100, striking out 34 batters in 23 innings against these teams. His start against Rice last week, a five-hitter with nine strikeouts, did affirm that Lincoln belongs in the top ten. In terms of dominance, Lincoln leads off the list.

    I am, surprisingly, most impressed with Greg Reynolds of any pitcher on this list. I have been quoted as saying that Reynolds is the most overrated first round talent, but he is really coming around this season. His five starts have all been very difficult, but Reynolds has excelled, particularly in the last three: 27 IP, 3 ER, 17 H, 4 BB. I have criticized Reynolds for the lack of results, but they are now there, even though the strikeouts aren't. Reynolds blend of projectablity and results will get him in the first round, and while my intuition frowns on the pick, he is giving me less and less to point at.

    Staying near the top of the list, Dave Huff deserves mention. I fell in love with Huff during the Cape Cod League last year, pegging him as a breakout candidate in his move to John Savage. It has happened, and Savage has proven the scouting world that Huff is an innings eater, going at least 8 innings in his last five starts, and at least nine in his last four. I'm worried that Huff is too hittable at times, that his lack of overall dominance will plague him at higher levels. But fantastic control and very good stuff (though not great) can go a long way for a southpaw.

    Most of you probably cringed when you saw just how low the UNC duo ended up on the list. Especially when considering their low average ISR, even if Nation's system is West Coast friendly. Bard has been so inconsistent all season; his April 9 start against Miami really hurts his numbers here, though. In his last three appearances, Bard has allowed only 13 hits in 18.2 innings, allowing just three earned runs to cross the plate. Bard's series of poor performances will scare many, but his stuff and occasional dominance does yield a first round pick.

    Miller hasn't been extremely dominant for a while, lacking one game score above 66. Miller's draft status is locked in, however, so these numbers only matter so much. After some midseason dip in his strikeout numbers, they are back in his last three starts, 21 in 20.2 innings. His control is also down in that period, and Andrew has really made a point of generating a ton of ground balls. No concerns about Miller, folks, he's right on pace.

    This list also does a good job in showing the continuing fall of Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. I still like both players; many first round teams would be best off with their innings-eater arms. However, the lack of a ceiling really will scare some clubs off. Kennedy concerns me the most because his control has been really off - 10 walks in his last 24 innings. Without control, Kennedy isn't much. Chamberlain has had walk problems do, allowing at least two in his last five outings. However, Chamberlain's plus strikeout numbers in each outing, including against Texas, have provided credence to his draft status.

    WTNYMay 16, 2006
    Planning for the End
    By Bryan Smith

    Life without Barry Bonds equals futility. At least this has been the case so far, as Bonds' lone organizational exit has yielded thirteen straight losing seasons. Soon, Bonds will be leaving another team for which he has been a mainstay on, this time leaving baseball for good.

    The San Francisco Giants have been, for years, a team built around Barry Bonds. The front office's strategy is simple and easily identifiable: win while you have Bonds at all costs. With this approach, Sabean has spent years making short-sighted trades, giving San Francisco a winning baseball team from 1997-2004. Suddenly, however, Sabean's tactics don't appear as genius.

    As the cameras follow Bonds so intently this season, the Giants have been plagued with mediocrity, falling to last place in baseball's worst division. Injuries have started to hit many of the thirtysomethings that encompass the starting lineup. The Giants are simply a team trapped between two time periods -- the consistent winnings of the previous decade and the forthcoming retooling of the next.

    Can life after Barry Bonds prove more successful than the Pittsburgh Pirates model? Surely, with better management and a sound blueprint, it is almost inevitable. With Bonds likely retiring after the 2007 season, the pressure is now on for Sabean and company to begin planning.

    While the farm system will unquestionably be important in the rebuilding process, the Giants have a luxury the Bucs never had: money. Not only will Bonds' exit bring in excess of eight figures off the payroll, but the forthcoming exits of many veteran players will present Brian Sabean with a myriad of options.

    Name 06 07 08
    Schmidt 10
    Durham 7
    Finley 7 1o
    Alou 6
    Morris 5 9.5 9.5
    Winn 5 4 8
    Benitez 4 7.6
    Vizquel 2.4 2.4
    Kline 3
    Matheny 2.5 2.5 2o
    Worrell 1.5 2
    Vizcaino 1.25
    Sweeney 0.85 0.95
    Wright 0.8
    Fassero 0.75
    Greene 0.7
    Lowry 0.39 1.12 2.25
    TOTALS 58.14 31.07 21.75

    Arbitration players notwithstanding, the Giants can see nearly $50 million coming off the books between now and 2008. Come 2008, the only contractually-bounded commitments are with two dependable starters (Matt Morris, Noah Lowry) and two fringe position players (Randy Winn, Mike Matheny). This means that in the next two seasons, Sabean has to find the new core of the Giants.

    What spots can Sabean depend upon the San Francisco youth to fill? Offensively, not much. Graciously, we can assert that second base is accounted for, either by Kevin Frandsen or Marcus Sanders. I'm not particularly sold on either player, but given Frandsen's 2006 and Sanders' 2005, it isn't too much of a stretch to think either is the current long-term answer at second base.

    The team is light on corner infield players, especially for those that don't believe in Pedro Feliz or Lance Niekro. At this point, it seems Feliz is no more than a bench player, and Niekro nothing more than some 2005 lightning in a bottle. While Travis Ishikawa could make some noise, I am not a believer. The Giants are simply light on infield youth; any depth is reserved for the outfield.

    The Giants have few better long-term bets than Eddy Martinez-Esteve, slowly but definitively moving up the minor league ranks. Esteve has some defensive problems, without a doubt, but either at 1B or LF, he will be an everyday player by 2008. I believe the same to be true about Fred Lewis, who probably should be leading off by the bay in 2007. Lewis' full-time position might move Winn to the bench indefinitely, but Fred's minor league success demands a role.

    San Francisco has numerous other long-term options in the outfield, most falling under the headings of 'adequate fourth outfield type' or 'too risky to project'. The latter group includes both Nate Schierholtz and Ben Copeland, both with high ceilings and high flame-out potential. And while I really like Dan Ortmeier and Brian Horwitz, neither profiles to be much more than a bench player. Guys like Ortmeier, Horwitz and Jason Ellison are all useful, just not on starting lineups or in the same organization.

    So, where does that leave us offensively? I am confident predicting three spots will be filled by youth, with Matheny, Winn, Ellison and Feliz all as potential bench options. Needless to say, the group does not inspire a ton of hope.

    The pitching staff offers more upside, however, despite Sabean's best efforts to trade every pitching prospect he can. While Sebean's belief in TINSTAPP has paid off on numerous occasions, Giants fans must wince every time they see Keith Foulke, Joe Nathan or Francisco Liriano near a pitcher's mound. Still, Sabean was unable to trade all San Fran's pitching youth, leaving some room for optimism.

    As mentioned, both Matt Morris and Noah Lowry should be in the 2008 rotation, providing 400 innings and sub-average ERAs. The latter is a long-term bet for a rotation spot. And despite some extreme early season struggles, uber-prospect Matt Cain still profiles to be the Giants future ace. This only leaves two rotation spots for Sabean to fill.

    One, you can bet, will come via the current farm system. Pat Misch has gained all the early season accolades, using a change-speeds approach to manage a 0.84 ERA in 43 current Eastern League innings. Misch's second run around Fresno, destined to come later in the year, should answer whether or not Misch is made for a rotation spot.

    If not the late bloomer, than perhaps the Giants could fill a spot with one of two hard-throwers: Merkin Valdez or Jonathan Sanchez. Valdez has been a prospect for ages, but like Andy Marte across the country, has not yielded enough high-level dominance. Also, Valdez has been stuck in the bullpen in AAA, which seems to be the Giants plans for him. Sanchez is the question mark; the Giants have toyed with him in both the bullpen and rotation. In any role he's used, the hard-throwing southpaw has been great, allowing 13 hits (0 homers) while striking out 39 in 27 AA innings.

    Alongside Valdez in the long-term relief plans seems to be Jeremy Accardo, a budding young set-up man that I am high on. The club also has some potential relief talent in the minors -- like LBSU's Brian Anderson -- and even some potential help in the Majors (Kevin Correia), but it seems that only Valdez and Accardo are dependable bets.

    Surely, the Giants seem to be better built in their staff than the flipside for the long-term. Lowry, Cain, Sanchez, Valdez and Accardo are all good bets. Matt Morris, Brad Hennessey, Kevin Correia, Craig Whitaker and Pat Misch could all be there. While undoubtedly not set in this area, we definitely know that Sabean should have his eyes on the lineup.

    In conclusion, to be blunt, the Giants have a lot of work to do before Barry Bonds retires. Namely, this includes acquiring and developing numerous young position players and a few young pitchers. This can be done in a number of ways: with the millions that the Giants payroll will shed in the next two winters, through trades (Jason Schmidt, Steve Finley, Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel, etc), and through the draft.

    While the Giants have been immune from the draft in recent years, choosing to forfeit their first round picks, such will not be the case in 2006. San Francisco will be picking twice in the first round, both in the tenth and 33rd draft spots. The Giants should undoubtedly choose the best player on their board, but in the case of a tie, look for the club to be leaning towards position players. With the tenth pick, both Matt LaPorta and Billy Rowell are potential choices, as well as a list of pitchers too long to mention.

    No matter which direction the Giants go in June, the team must begin a new commitment -- towards youth. With each day on his knees, Barry Bonds' days become more numbered, and the onus shifts more and more towards the front office to turn the Giants into a winner.

    Life without Barry Bonds will not be easy. But, with any foresight, San Francisco should be able to avoid the disastrous fate of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

    WTNYMay 12, 2006
    Giving Credit...
    By Bryan Smith

    ...where credit is due. The Major League season is now about 20% over, making the usual pretender/contender game a bit more valid. However, I don't want to rain on parades in Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston and Colorado, so we'll try to find optimism elsewhere.

    In replacement for the usual Friday notes column, I decided to give credit to the top half (records-wise) of the MLB and write a paragraph detailing each farm system. It is in no way an attempt to be comprehensive, but merely a simple tool for word association. Among the minor league happenings that have drawn my eye recently...

    Chicago White Sox - The idea to replace Brian Anderson with Ryan Sweeney in the outfield makes such little sense to me. Anderson has provided Rowand-ish defense so far, and offers pop that Sweeney doesn't: 72 extra-base hits in 1149 professional at-bats. Batting average isn't everything...Aaron Cunningham is the type of player that I might pick to break out next year. He's been sensational in the Sally League at the age of 20.

    Cincinnati Reds - Homer Bailey is really starting to turn on the gas, literally proving he has "no hit" stuff. With enhanced control this season, minor league baseball might not have a better pitcher once the summer hits full swing... Paul Janish has played so well this season, but don't buy into his stock. It's the college-draftee's second time in the league, and the Florida State League will prove how weak his bat is. The glove should turn him into a nice minor league veteran, though.

    New York Mets - A farm system of four players, only three of whom have serious ceilings. Milledge, Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez are all great prospects, but Alay Soler is probably the subplot of the season. Considered by many this past winter as a lost cause, Soler (with the help of Pelfrey) will make Victor Zambrano an afterthought. Let's just hope that Soler, Brian Bannister and Scott Kazmir are teaching the front office a lesson: older isn't always better.

    St. Louis Cardinals - A farm system that I think is on the upswing, thanks to a good 2005 draft and a good number of picks in 2006. Colby Rasmus continues to bounce back from him slow start, but we can now add southpaws to the growing weaknesses list that already includes breaking pitches. Let's hope the list ends there ... Adam Wainwright has been great in the Majors so far, which really creates a lot of questions surrounding Anthony Reyes. With all the arguments we have for the most over and underrated prospect, one thing we should all agree on is that Reyes is the least appreciated prospect.

    Boston Red Sox - He didn't make it to my recent article praising new prospects, but Mike Bowden would make a top 75 if I wrote it up today. Subtract one start from his numbers, and Bowden is an elite talent. Even his inconsistency has not plagued a great set of peripheral statistics. Bowden has surely bested Clay Buchholz so far ... Speaking of bad starts, Jon Lester is starting to return to his status as an elite pitching prospect. In his last four starts, spanning 18.1 innings, Lester has allowed just four earned runs. When are we going to accept he just always starts slow?

    Detroit Tigers - This is a very hard system to get a feel for, with an odd blend of prospects. In terms of upside, the top two talents are definitely Cameron Maybin and Humberto Sanchez. The Tigers have dealt with bad pitching for so long, it's interesting that Jim Leyland has been handed a rotation of fireballers. Sanchez always seems to be too inconsistent as a starter, but even more so than Joel Zumaya, I think he could make a dynamite reliever. Trying Zumaya and Jordan Tata in the rotation, while filling their bullpen slots with Sanchez might be a good late-season experiment for the Tigers.

    New York Yankees - So much for Eric Duncan's big turnaround as a prospect, huh? The first baseman is hitting .228/.295/.277 in a season when Jason Giambi has a .500+ on-base percentage. Duncan's strikeouts are down, which is nice, but where oh where are the power numbers? ... If you think the support Cole Hamels has gotten for his call-up has been extensive, think about Phil Hughes' upcoming promotion. No, it won't be too soon, but an August injury could bring a phenom to New York.

    Houston Astros - Last year the Astros drew a lot of publicity for a draft which included Brian Bogusevic, Eli Iorg and Koby Clemens. It seems now as if the praise might have been premature. Clemens has been hurt for much of the season, but ineffective while playing. Eli Iorg's OPS is below .600, thanks to 3 walks for the season. Most of the hits are being credited to Bogusevic, who has allowed 25 in just 12.2 innings. I wouldn't want to be the person accountable for these misplayed millions.

    Colorado Rockies - Everything is on the up and up for this organization. If the Kansas City Royals make the Tim Lincecum mistake, the Rockies will be handed a major piece to their puzzle. All the talk for the 2006 draft has focused around the lack of heavy talent at the top, but Andrew Miller is the type of player this organization needs. A boring two-seamer, a 95+ four-seamer and a fantastic slider seems to be a potential recipe for Coors success. Chris Nelson seems to be the exception to the rule of good first-round picks by the Rockies recently.

    Toronto Blue Jays - Ricky Romero looked great in his minor league debut, and should be up to the Major Leagues in short order. Given Josh Towers' struggles in the early goings, it won't take much for some aggressive promoting. Romero in Toronto by season's end? Bet on it ... The early returns on the Blue Jays' early-round college outfield selections have been positive, especially with Ryan Patterson's recent 6-for-6, 3 HR day in Dunedin. Drafting in the middle rounds has been a successful venture for the Riccardi regime.

    Philadelphia Phillies - The question now is: how will Gio Gonzalez react now that the pressure is placed on his left shoulder, with Cole Hamels graduating to the big leagues? Gonzalez is a pretty fantastic talent, and the Phillies will have the makings of a young, talented rotation by 2007. How the likes of Scott Mathieson and Zach Segovia fit in, at this point, is unknown ... Whither Bradley Harman? After garnering my prediction for a 2006 breakout, and performing well in the World Baseball Classic, Harman has been a non-entity in Clearwater. One of my biggest disappointments of the young season, to be sure.

    Arizona Diamondbacks - Mike Rizzo is one of the most talented scouting directors in baseball, and I would never tell him how to do his job. But, I also have a plan for the Diamondbacks draft. Why not take relatively cheap players with the 11 and 34 selections, and then gamble with #55? Given that the club's low-A affiliate is in South Bend, Indiana, is there a better fit for Notre Dame WR/RHP Jeff Samardzija? Scouts love his potential in both sports; Mel Kiper has him 7th on his first 2007 draft board. With a creative contract and the ability to play in his college town, Samardzija could really test the baseball waters with this organization.

    San Diego Padres - The hopes of the entire farm system lay on the bat of George Kottaras, currently managing a .292 ISO in Mobile, a very tough hitters' park. Kottaras also was surrounded by power red flags, but the consistent addition of that to his game is a benefit. However, how must the Padres front office be balancing such encouraging signs with his 34 strikeouts (in 96 at-bats)? Like the rest of the farm system, it really seems to be one step forward, two steps back ... Given the huge outfield in PETCO Park, you really have to wonder if Kevin Towers winces every time he sees Jered Weaver throw seven scoreless innings with more than a dozen flyball outs.

    Texas Rangers - I did not like the trade for Freddy Guzman yesterday at all. Guzman's career should double that of a fifth outfielder's, with some outside ceiling to become a leadoff hitter. Conversely, John Hudgins has potential as a back-end pitcher a la John Maine, while Vince Sinisi has a bit of thunder in his bat. Neither player's loss in the Rule 5 Draft would have caused Jon Daniels to blink this past winter, but that hardly means he should begin pressing ... Another draft combination that I think is perfect: Luke Hochevar in Texas. A hard-throwing sinkerballer in a pitching-starved organization with a hitter-friendly ballpark? A good connection with Scott Boras? Only one pick in the top 85? Drafting Hochevar and offering $2.5 million is in the best interests of all parties involved.

    Oakland Athletics - Last year Marcus McBeth was moved to the mound full-time, and spent his season split between the Rookie Leagues and the Kane County Cougars (low-A). While McBeth started the season off great in the Cal League, allowing just one hit in 8 appearances, his promotion to the Pacific Coast League was too extreme. The former outfielder is a great talent off the mound, but rushing him makes little sense. Bring him into the majors in 2008, as he is hitting his physical peak, and see a true Brooks Kieschnik success story ... Daric Barton, Kevin Mellilo, maybe Travis Buck. The future of this team is really about to hit the Majors for good, providing good fodder for Moneyball 2.

    WTNYMay 10, 2006
    May Day
    By Bryan Smith

    When managers leave Spring Training at the end of March, with a 25-man roster chosen, they intend to stick with it. For much of April, struggling players are given free passes; their team anticipates the player will come around in short order.

    We are now beginning to enter the time of the year in which injuries and demotions start to pile on. Many minor league players saw a hot April up their prospect status, and are ready to thrive on a May opportunity. In the past few days, and in the coming few, there are six transactions that I want to highlight today. Which players will stick and which are merely Band-Aids?

    We'll start things off with three players that have been called up to the Majors within the past three days...

    Since August 1 of last season, Jose Contreras is the AL Cy Young: 14-1, 1.82 ERA, 2.77 K/BB. And while Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland came out of the April gates slow, Contreras established himself as the ace of the South Side. To many teams, his loss would be devastating. So why are White Sox fans simply shrugging off Conteras' sciatic nerve problems?

    It isn't Brandon McCarthy. No, the young hurler labeled by many as the game's best sixth starter will remain in the bullpen while Contreras spends time on the DL. Instead, the White Sox brain trust chose to go with their seventh starter, 22 year old right-hander Charles Haeger.

    Don't worry if the name doesn't ring any bells; before the season, Haeger was an afterthought in prospect circles. After a Spring Training that yielded a 10.45 ERA, his only notoriety came as a result of his knuckleball. Haeger will pitch against Ervin Santana and the LA Angels tonight, and thanks to six good starts, his current reputation is that of the minors' best knuckleballer.

    In none of Haeger's six starts with the Charlotte Knights did he allow more than one run. Only once, in his last start, did he allow more hits than the number of innings he pitched. Conversely, Haeger will have to battle through control problems, having walked 20 batters in 40 AAA innings. And, as one might expect from a knuckeballer, the play of the catcher will be a focal point for Haeger's success. In his six starts this season, Haeger's catchers have allowed 14 passed balls, and Haeger has been credited with four wild pitches.

    One can bet a healthy dose of walks, wild pitches and passed balls will not yield Contreras-esque success in Haeger's first Major League cup of coffee. If he does stymie the Angels, it will be because the knuckleballer provoked groundballs, few hard hits, and received help from behind the plate. Unfortunately for Haeger, trading for Doug Mirabelli is a luxury the White Sox cannot afford.

    * * * * *

    When the Yankees acquired Johnny Damon this winter, Bronx fans were convinced their days worrying about the outfield was over. Durability problems from Damon, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui were hardly anticipated. The days of Bubba Crosby and Bernie Williams' weak arm were thought to be behind them.

    Unexpectedly, Gary Sheffield now is on the DL, out with problems in his wrist. Rather than turning to Crosby or Williams, the Yankees recalled Melky Cabrera, the prospect that gave the Yankees a very forgettable cup of coffee in 2005. Cabrera's reputation had previously been tarnished in New York, but with early positive results from Columbus, the Yanks knew they had no better options.

    As is his strength, Cabrera has magnificently kept his strikeout numbers down in 2006, whiffing just 9 times in 122 at-bats before his call-up. His contact skills should be a plus at any level, keeping his average at an acceptable level. His patience is decent enough; concerns have always focused on his power, or lack thereof. However, with 12 extra-base hits in his 31 International League games, some are wondering whether Cabrera could be more than a fourth outfielder.

    The answer: doubtfully. Cabrera is a fine fill-in at the bottom of a fantastic lineup, capable of putting the ball in play consistently. But without any real strength to speak of, it's unlikely his power could ever support a full-time spot in a corner outfield spot. In center, his mediocre defense -- which looked poor in his first 2006 MLB game -- would be exposed.

    In basketball, Cabrera would be a 6-6 power forward, or a 5-11 shooting guard; in other words, he's your classic tweener. Expect the Yankees to bear his play for the next two weeks, but don't expect him to be featured in any future plans besides trades or a bench spot.

    * * * * *

    Things weren't supposed to be this hard for the Angels. After committing to building the farm system, the Angels entered this season with the most top-heavy, ready farm system in the Major Leagues. But things haven't gone to plan in Los Angeles. Jeff Mathis didn't hit at all, Casey Kotchman's mono hindered his ceiling with the bat.

    Now, Mathis finds himself in Salt Lake, Kotchman on the DL. The Angels have tried calling up Mike Napoli to fill in at catcher, and the short, powerful player would homer in his first Major League at-bat. Howie Kendrick was called up to fill in at a variety of roles, including at the DH spot instead of Tim Salmon. Sporadic play has proven to be the one thing that could slow Howie's play.

    With Kotchman on the DL, the Angels decided to recall Dallas McPherson, another former blue-chip prospect that stagnated when reaching the Major League level. After failing to make the Angels out of Spring Training, McPherson showed his true colors in the Pacific Coast League, slugging and striking out. In his 102 at-bats, McPherson hit 20 XBH, while whiffing 49 times. Yes, in just 33 at-bats in 26 games did McPherson not slug an extra-base hit or strike out.

    Concerns about McPherson's contact skills have never been more prevalent, his batting average ceiling appears to be at about .260. But for a team struggling to find offense, like the Angels have in 2006, waiting around for McPherson to hit the ball hard could actually present a welcome change.

    Call-ups To Be

    On Sunday, Cole Hamels had the worst start of his AAA career: he allowed a run. However, it was just one run in 7 innings, while allowing 5 hits and one walk. Hamels' ten strikeouts brought his AAA total to 36, amassed in just 23 innings.

    Few prospects have flown up lists this spring like Hamels, whose polish appears ready for the Major Leagues. His change up, some have posited, could be among the best at the Major League level. Remember, you might, that Delmon Young once called the pitch the nastiest he had faced as a teenager.

    With nine straight wins, the Phillies have continued to urge they have no need to rush Hamels. But, what Pat Gillick must understand is, at this point, it's not rushing. Hamels is ready. Ryan Madson is ready for a move back to the bullpen. It's a match made in heaven, and despite the loaded National League rookie crop, it's a move that could produce the NL Rookie of the Year.

    * * * * *

    Without a doubt, you have heard about Kerry Wood's first rehab start: 12 strikeouts in 5 innings. While the Lansing Lugnuts don't quite provide the intimidation that the Cardinals or Astros might, it's a start for Kid K, having spent so much of the last couple years on the DL.

    When Wood returns, the Cubs rotation should return to being the club's strength. Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux are both dependable, fantastic starters. Sean Marshall has provided lightning in a bottle, seemingly improving in each of his six starts. Wood will make for a very good foursome, and it will be only weeks before Angel Guzman or Rich Hill is replaced by Mark Prior.

    No matter how good the rotation might look, it appears that the Cubs simply don't have the offense to compete in baseball's (current) toughest division. In the Cubs last 11 games, they are 1-11, sliding near the bottom of the NL Central barrel. During this streak, the Cubs have scored a measly 13 runs, never more than three in any contest.

    Kerry Wood's coming back? Yawn. Wake me when Derrek Lee returns.

    * * * * *

    Speaking of oft-injured pitchers, Ben Sheets is returning to the DL, leaving the Milwaukee Brewers again without an ace. Finally, it appears like the Brewers may have a competent replacement.

    As good as Hamels has been in his short AAA stint, the best southpaw at the level in 2006 may be Dana Eveland, the David Wells look-a-like Brewer prospect. Yesterday, Eveland saw his first loss of a season come in a game in which Eveland did not allow an earned run. He was credited with two unearned runs, which he tends to allow as his groundball-provoking nature puts pressure on the seven behind him.

    Dana Eveland isn't found often on prospect lists, his ceiling nowhere near as high as some prospects. He doesn't strike batters out at a good enough rate, more of a groundball-control specialist than anything else. But in a rotation currently featuring Tomo Ohka and an underachieving Doug Davis, Eveland could quickly become one of the Brewers best weapons.

    WTNYMay 09, 2006
    Opening Night
    By Bryan Smith

    One of the questions I receive through e-mail most often is, something like, "Bryan, to what minor league level do you think college baseball best equates with?"

    This is always a tough question to answer, currently impossible to quantify. The best we can do is to guess with our eyes. College baseball's best teams probably hover around high-A ball, while most regional qualifiers might be able to hold their own in the Midwest League (low-A). As we get towards the bottom, some aren't good enough to compete in the Rookie Leagues.

    As college baseball fans know, a week for a big program usually consists of 1-2 midweek games and a 3-game weekend series. For most teams, the best pitcher on the team opens the weekend series, usually starting Friday nights. Friday nights are when teams should be at their best, with the best starter on the mound, and the best 8 behind him. Many Carolina League teams would want to avoid UNC on Friday nights.

    Recently, I started to wonder how hitters perform on Friday nights. At the Major League level, we have splits for everything: month, LH vs. RH, spot in the order, with RISP, etc. I started to realize that for college hitters, in addition to monthly splits, we could add four more: individual numbers for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and the rest of the week. Today, I present the first step towards achieving that goal.

    Below, I have calculated how fifteen junior hitters -- considered by some to be the best 15 in the country -- have performed on the weekend series' opening night. If a series started on Thursday, I chose that night. But, nine times out of ten, it simply meant combing through Friday game logs. These numbers, ideally, should tell us how hitters do against some of their best competition.

    However, as with many splits, multiple caveats apply. First, I want to stress that I'm not presenting how Evan Longoria did against the best 13 pitchers he's faced. Rather, we're computing how he did against the best pitchers from the 13 teams that Long Beach State has faced on the weekends. Without a doubt, the Saturday Texas starter (Kyle McCulloch) is better than the UC Irvine Friday pitcher. But on Fridays, UC Irvine should be at their best. Other caveats include that this stat screams sample-size, and that due to being done by hand, it might not be perfect. In the cases where it's not perfect, I can promise that it's close.

    So, onto the numbers. Again, below is the performance of 15 highly projected Junior hitters on Friday nights, ranked by OPS:

    Name School AB AVG OBP SLG K
    Jim Negrych Pittsburgh 36 .472 .587 .667 12
    Matt Antonelli Wake Forest 44 .341 .442 .614 1
    Evan Longoria Long Beach 43 .326 .508 .535
    Mark Hamilton Tulane 49 .245 .383 .592 11
    Josh Rodriguez Rice 44 .341 .420 .523 6
    Drew Stubbs Texas 59 .288 .364 .559 18
    Aaron Bates NC State 49 .286 .446 .469 8
    Wes Hodges Georgia Tech 43 .326 .423 .419 10
    Shane Robinson Florida State 58 .293 .406 .328 7
    Colin Curtis Arizona State 59 .271 .358 .373 9
    Matt LaPorta Florida 37 .216 .356 .297 7
    Chad Tracy Pepperdine 56 .214 .313 .268 7
    Adam Davis Florida 48 .208 .321 .250 13
    Jon Jay Miami (FL) 46 .174 .367 .196 6
    Brian Jeroloman Florida 46 .196 .296 .217 11

    The most noteworthy mitigating factor in regards to this split is schedule strength. The chart's OPS leader, Pittsburgh 2B Jim Negrych, is a prime example of this, facing a weak Big East schedule. The best pitchers that Negrych has faced on Friday nights this year are David Price -- a great LHP from Vanderbilt -- and Jeff Samardzija, the overrated Norte Dame WR/SP. On the other hand, Drew Stubbs has faced a very hard slate of pitchers, thanks to Texas' tough schedule. Stubbs' 2006 competition has included four pitchers (Butler, Reynolds, Hughes, Chamberlain) that will likely be drafted in the '06 first round. Generally the level of competition is fairly even across the board, but it's important to note that it could have an affect on the final totals.

    A few other thoughts that the above table produces...

  • Previously, I have noted that complaints exist about Matt Antonelli's performance against his best competition. His numbers refute that point, his 1.056 OPS has included match-ups against 2007 top-ten talents Sean Doolittle (Virginia) and Andrew Brackman (NC State). While Antonelli's patience (7 BB) and power (6 XBH) are both impressive, I was most wowed by his fantastic display of contact. In 44 at-bats, Antonelli has struck out just one time. Add an insane amount of athleticism to these numbers, and I maintain that Antonelli is the June draft's most underrated talent.

  • Other players that profit from this analysis include Mark Hamilton and Josh Rodriguez. Hamilton's contact skills are problematic, neither his .245 average or 11 strikeouts are positive indicators. However, no one has hit more Friday home runs (5), and few have drawn more walks. I was a big fan of Hamilton's before the season, and with his stock on the way up, I want to re-stress my Ryan Klesko comparison.

    Rodriguez entered the year close on many draft boards to Evan Longoria, but his stock fell a bit when Longoria flew past him. However, Rodriguez is my pick for the best natural shortstop in the draft. His contact skills are fantastic; in the last five Fridays, he has not struck out. Josh isn't the most patient hitter, nor the best shortstop, but his talents with the bat outshine those weaknesses. I would draft him in the supplemental first round.

  • Looking for reasons that the Florida Gators have underperformed this season? Point your fingers in the direction of their three junior hitters. Adam Davis and Brian Jeroloman have both proven to be extremely weak with the bat, both showing little power and a high propensity to strike out. And while Matt LaPorta was projected to be the Gators' rock, injuries and poor Friday performances should hurt his draft stock. Shouldn't we raise a red flag knowing that only one of LaPorta's 13 extra-base hits have come on Fridays?

    I believe LaPorta, like Greg Reynolds in the pitching department, will end up as one of the first round's biggest disappointments.

  • The other noteworthy disappointments, rounding out the bottom five, are Jon Jay (Miami - OF) and Chad Tracy (Pepperdine - C). Jay has shown more athleticism in 2006 than in the past, however, his bat has not been the strength that many projected. In the last 13 weekend series, Jay has not hit a single extra-base hit on opening night. Tracy's position could lend an early-round selection, but his offensive talents are overstated. If his Friday numbers prove to be any indicator, neither Tracy's patience (5 BBs) or power (3 XBH) project well with wooden bats.

    Again, the numbers which I presented today are nothing more than a sample-size split. But, in college baseball, where a weekend can drastically change a player's draft position, I think the numbers are important.

  • WTNYMay 03, 2006
    April Stock Offerings
    By Bryan Smith

    Oh, what a difference a month can make. And in the minor leagues, few months have a larger effect on perception than April. Just a year ago, we were wondering what exactly early season success stories like Billy Butler, Brandon Wood and Gio Gonzalez really meant. But, April can also have the opposite fact. While the first month did shed the light on a lot of prospects that would break out, we also saw big early season numbers from Hayden Penn, J.D. Martin and others who would not follow through.

    Without question, I will at season's end denounce April statistics for numerous players, citing what they did from May 1 onward. Simply put, it's difficult to expect teenagers to come prepared for one of their first professional seasons. How you finish is always more important than how you start.

    That said, we must give credit where credit is due. In past year's, I have revised my prospect rankings following April, an article I decided not to write this year. Instead, I wanted to look at a group of players that did not make it in my winter top 75 prospects, but likely would if I made the list today. Currently, there are nineteen players from my top 75 in the Major Leagues, so I have chosen nineteen early success stories that have boosted my impressions of the prospect.

    Sample size caveats still apply in all of these cases, but pretty soon, we are going to have to accept breakouts from the below players to be real. Right now, I believe in the below nineteen players enough to call them top 75 prospects at this moment.

    Nick Adenhart, 19, Los Angeles Angels (Low-A), SP
    Numbers= 2.12 ERA, 22 H / 29.2 IP, 30 K / 8 BB, 1 HR

    The poster boy of the Angels' newest draft strategy, Adenhart fell hard in the 2004 draft when it was discovered his elbow needed Tommy John surgery. Prepared to enroll in at the University of North Carolina, Adenhart was given a surprise when the Angels drafted him late with a high bonus proposal. After spending much of 2005 rehabbing his elbow, Adenhart gradually grew stronger as the short season went on. This year the power right-hander has come out strong, making the Angels gamble look good. I'm a bit worried how Adenhart's flyball tendencies will hold up when he is eventually promoted to Rancho Cucamonga, but he'll always have the ability to miss bats.

    Ryan Braun, 22, Milwaukee Brewers (High-A), 3B
    Numbers= .292/.353/.494, 8 BB / 20 K, 8/10 SB in 89 AB

    The first three weeks of the season Ryan Braun was hitting, but mostly for singles. While Braun had a high batting average, many wondered where the power had gone for the former Hurricane slugger. Sure enough, Braun caught fire at the end of the month, and has three home runs in the past 10 days. The best number thus far is the eight steals that Braun has grabbed, he's been a good baserunner since college. Braun's peripheral statistics have me a bit worried, but I think there is power in the fourth overall pick's future.

    Reid Brignac, 20, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (High-A), SS
    Numbers= .358/.411/.537, 9 BB / 17 K, 3/5 SB in 95 AB

    Many of the concerns that detracted from Brignac's resume in 2005 are being rectified this season. We have already seen Brignac become a more patient hitter at the plate, and he's also made better contact this season. While his numbers are, without question, boosted by the league, Brignac has been consistently getting on base. If anything, his only inconsistency has been power, as his slugging percentage has suffered a bit since an early season, three-HR game. My biggest worry is that Brignac now has 10 errors, with a posititon change likely in his future. At least he's proving to have the bat needed for the move down the defensive spectrum.

    Jay Bruce, 19, Cincinnati Reds (Low-A), OF
    Numbers= .286/.333/.516, 8 BB / 17 K, 3/6 SB in 91 AB

    The Midwest League is now home to four prep outfield choices from the 2005 first round, and no player in the group had a more consistent April than Bruce. A toolsy player that made a late run up draft boards, I had thought the learning curve would be slow on a player like Bruce. However, Jay has taken to A-ball quite well, showing sound -- if unspectacular -- statistics across the board. His power profiles better than any other trait and this point, and his extra-base hit numbers is the number to watch this season.

    Wade Davis, 19, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Low-A), SP
    Numbers= 0.67 ERA, 13 H / 26.2 IP, 40 K / 13 BB, 0 HR

    At this point, Davis is taking the Anibal Sanchez breakout path, showing validity in dominant short-season numbers. After pitching so well in limited action last year, Davis became a prominent breakout candidate touted by both Baseball America and John Sickels. Kudos to them, as Davis has been as impressive as any minor league starter. Control is the only problem that Davis currently has, as his hellacious stuff has produced otherwise great peripheral statistics. A promotion to the Cal League would do Davis well at this point, as he must be shown that at some point, walks will come back to hurt you.

    Brandon Erbe, 18, Baltimore Orioles (Low-A), SP
    Numbers= 2.25 ERA, 14 H / 20.0 IP, 26 K / 1 BB, 1 HR

    Control is hardly a problem for Erbe, who brought that strength to the table when he was drafted last June. Shortly after being drafted, however, his stuff improved and Erbe has taken off. In fact, I believe that if the draft was re-held today, Erbe would be the first prep pitcher off the board. Erbe rarely hurts himself on the mound, and right now, there hasn't been a minor league hitter that could touch him.

    Matt Garza, 22, Minnesota Twins (High-A), SP
    Numbers= 0.74 ERA, 15 H / 24.1 IP, 34 K / 6 BB, 1 HR

    After a very lackluster start to his collegiate career, Garza blossomed as a junior, earning a first round selection with a good spring at Fresno State. Garza has been great in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League so far, with no real glitches to speak of. As Glen Perkins found out a year ago, the move from Fort Myers to New Britain is a big one, and it will be hard to judge Garza as a prospect until his promotion. Given a few more sensational starts, and the Twins will have no choice but to challenge Garza in the Eastern League.

    Matt Kemp, 21, Los Angeles Dodgers (AA), OF
    Numbers= .337/.402/.604, 9 BB / 17 K, 4/5 SB in 101 AB

    We wondered what role the hitter-friendly Vero Beach stadium had on Kemp's numbers, and if his poor Spring Training would continue into the season. Kemp has given strong answers to both questions this season, proving himself as a prospect. Kemp is just such an intriguing prospect right now, possessing every tool imaginable. He has shown great power so far this spring, to go with good baserunning, enough patience and his usual good defense. With all the Dodger talent in front of him, Kemp will likely stay in Jacksonville for some time.

    Radhames Liz, 23, Baltimore Orioles (High-A), SP
    Numbers= 1.35 ERA, 9 H / 20.0 IP, 39 K / 8 BB, 0 HR

    When combining Liz' 2005 and current numbers, the Oriole right-hander has 176 strikeouts in 114.1 innings. He has allowed just 78 hits. While I'm not crazy about Liz' age relative to his competition, continued success speaks highly of his stuff. Like Garza, we are probably a few months from being about to properly evaluate Liz, but at this point, it's hard to criticize. Control is really the only number to complain about at this point.

    Chuck Lofgren, 20, Cleveland Indians (High-A), SP
    Numbers= 1.33 ERA, 17 H / 20.1 IP, 20 K / 5 BB, 0 HR

    One of the final players to make this list, Lofgren is one that I really thought would take off in 2006. Extremely athletic with budding stuff, Lofgren has been solid this season, but his numbers are far less gaudy than other prospects. Chuck should be relatively consistent this whole season, and the Indians would be best to let him spend most of the season in the Carolina League. Lofgren has all the makings of a future stud, but we must remember that he is still relatively raw on the mound at this point.

    Fernando Martinez, 17, New York Mets (Low-A), OF
    Numbers= .338/.416/.519, 9 BB / 13 K, 3/4 SB in 77 AB

    My favorite story of April. Martinez entered the year an afterthought compared to the other young teenage prospects in the South Atlantic League, Elvis Andrus and Jose Tabata. Martinez obviously entered the year with a chip on his shoulder, and has since exploded onto the Met prospect scene. The young phenom has shown good patience, plus speed, and fantastic power potential at this point. The Mets will be very conservative with Martinez' handling, as they should. Once Mike Pelfrey hits the Majors, he's one of the Mets only real prospects.

    Cameron Maybin, 19, Detroit Tigers (Low-A), CF
    Numbers= .317/.394/.524, 9 BB / 26 K, 4/5 SB in 82 AB

    I was surprised last June when Maybin fell as far as he did, believing the North Carolina outfielder was worthy of a top five selection. And while Maybin's overall numbers look good this year, he has really proven to be quite raw in the earlygoing. Maybin's contact skills have proven to be entirely lacking, his average only high thanks to a .400+ BABIP. Furthermore, the majority of Maybin's power has been the result of four triples. His speed and power potential are still very intriguing, but Maybin must show a better propensity for contact as the year goes on.

    Andrew McCutchen, 19, Pittsburgh Pirates (Low-A), CF
    Numbers= .344/.402/.505, 9 BB / 13 K, 2/4 SB in 93 AB

    The Pirates had locked themselves into drafting McCutchen very early last season, falling in love with his future potential atop a lineup. The idea still must have the Pittsburgh brass salivating, as McCutchen has shown great bat control and plus patience in the early going. So far, I'm most surprised with McCutchen's lack of activity on the bases, only four attempts, and only two successful steals. While he is proving to be very adept at the plate, McCutchen's leadoff credentials would be aided if he proved to be a more dangerous threat on the bases.

    Mike Pelfrey, 22, New York Mets (A+/AA), SP
    Numbers= 1.30 ERA, 20 H / 27.2 IP, 34 K / 4 BB, 1 HR

    It didn't take long for the Mets to realize that starting Pelfrey in the Florida State League had been too conservative. Like Cole Hamels, Pelfrey cut through the FSL with ease, transitioning to pro baseball without missing a step. Pelfrey's great control in April was a very good surprise, and really means that Pelfrey's ceiling is higher than any other pitcher on this list. At this point I expect Pelfrey to make his debut (with Alay Soler) in September, providing Mets fans with a lot of excitement for 2007.

    Hunter Pence, 23, Houston Astros (AA), OF
    Numbers= .340/.395/.621, 10 BB / 18 K, 4/5 SB in 103 AB

    At some point we need to just realize that certain contextual factors just aren't too important. Pence's age and his odd-looking swing have both been criticized in the past, but Pence continues to produce with fantastic results. Pence has done a bit of everything this year, but his power display in the Texas League should signal a lot to the Astros' brass. While both Jason Lane and Wily Taveras are likely locked into future spaces in the Astros outfield, Pence has shown the power necessary to make it in left field.

    Colby Rasmus, 19, St. Louis Cardinals (Low-A), CF
    Numbers= .298/.348/.481, 8 BB / 23 K, 7/8 SB in 104 AB

    Again, because it bears repeating. In the first seven games of the season, Rasmus went 2-for-28 with zero extra base hits. We were worried he needed a demotion to short-season ball. But the results since then have been fantastic, including a .382 batting average and .632 slugging percentage. Colby could be showing better patience and contact skills, but everything else -- including baserunning -- has been sensational. Much better prospect than his numbers indicate at this point.

    Nolan Reimold, 22, Baltimore Orioles (High-A), OF
    Numbers= .304/.402/.544, 11 BB / 21 K, 5/8 SB in 79 AB

    Recent changes in the Orioles scouting department are sure paying off, huh? While Brandon Snyder is slowly progressing in low-A, the Orioles had other huge draft successes in Reimold and Erbe. With Nick Markakis graduated to the Majors, Reimold becomes the best outfielder in a system that includes Val Majewski and Jeff Fiorentino. Reimold can do a bit of everything, with great patience, power and speed. Like many players on this list, his largest flaw has been an overadundance of strikeouts. He'll finish the year in AA.

    Troy Tulowitzki, 21, Colorado Rockies (AA), SS
    Numbers= .342/.404/.557, 5 BB / 18 K, 2/3 SB in 79 AB

    It has been a very odd season for Tulo this year, I think. Overall, his numbers look great, Tulowitzki is hitting in an environment that very few of his draft-mates have even been assigned to. But when digging deeper, Tulowitzki's peripheral numbers look far worse than his .961 OPS. Besides the 18 strikeouts, Tulowitzki has drawn just 5 walks and hit only 2 non-2B extra-base hits. Now we know gap power turns to home run power in Coors Field, so it isn't too concerning. The Rockies should really begin giving Clint Barmes grounders at second base, because Tulowitzki is a matter of months, if that, away.

    Justin Upton, 18, Arizona Diamondbacks (Low-A), CF
    Numbers= .317/.404/.463, 5 BB / 6 K, 3/5 SB in 41 AB

    I absolutely couldn't stand to miss Upton's recent swing through the heartland of the Midwest League. Unfortunately, I chose to grab his game against Cedar Rapids on Monday, missing his first professional home run by 24 hours. Upton's 1-for-4 performance wasn't anything to write home about, his lone hit a good piece of hitting, an opposite field bloop single. Upton proved raw on the basepaths and in the field, but also showed enough speed to have sensational potential in both. Upton's body is so developed at this point, he really could hit the Majors before turning 20. Without a doubt, a top ten prospect at this point.

    WTNYMay 01, 2006
    From One Draft to the Next
    By Bryan Smith

    Corner Houston Texans owner Bob McNair today, and I have a hunch that he would validate the beliefs of many college football fans: Reggie Bush is a special, the special, talent. From a strict football standpoint, most talent evaluators could (and would) tell you that Bush is far superior to Saturday's top pick, Mario Williams.

    But as McNair can now attest, professional sports are not just about on-the-field ability. Sports are a blend of talent and money; the bottom line overrides all else.

    In 2003, baseball scouts were divided on which Golden Spikes finalist was the draft's best talent - Stephen Drew or Jered Weaver. Both were thought to be fantastic prospects, but a red flag on each resume caused draft day drops. Scott Boras. Swerving away from the Boras route, San Diego Padre ownership ordered GM Kevin Towers to find a cheaper alternative with the top pick. Towers signed a pre-draft deal with high school SS Matt Bush.

    We can only hope that the Houston Texans avoid the fate of the Padres, who endured a .555 OPS from their $3 million bonus baby in his first professional season. No matter how Williams fares, pundits will always point to (and criticize) the Texans decision to value the accounting department over their scouts.

    Baseball's upcoming June draft offers no special prospect like Reggie Bush. You've already heard that this crop isn't quite up to par. A player Bush's caliber, generational, was taken first in 2005. Justin Upton, a player that succeeds in all aspects of the game, is similar to the 2005 Heisman Trophy Winner.

    But while no player in the 2006 baseball crop compares to Bush, other examples can be found that are similar. After sitting through two days of NFL draft coverage, I came up with a dozen similar options between the two drafts. Powered by the hope that baseball's draft coverage starts to head in the direction of the pigskin...

    From Big Time Success to Big Time Volatility
    Football - Vince Young; Baseball - Tim Lincecum

    Wonderlic. Release. Motion. Reading defenses. All these flaws and more have been associated with Vince Young since he heroically led the Texas Longhorns to a Rose Bowl upset. Having nothing left to prove at the college level, Young will enter the NFL forced to reverse the beliefs of many that say his style can't succeed at the pro level. While so much has been criticized, the Titans did not reach by choosing Young, who packs a pretty fantastic punch given his athletic ability and deep ball skills. If his flaws can be corrected, he has All-Star potential.

    In many ways, Tim Lincecum is more similar to Matt Leinart than Young. Like Leinart, Lincecum chose to return to college to prove people wrong. Like Leinart, he has done it, and may top the USC southpaw by winning Player of the Year. But Lincecum's similarities to Young are evident by the evaluations associated with the Huskie right-hander. Too short. Violent delivery. Overworked. No one doubts his fastball-curve combination -- much like no one questions Vince's ability to scramble -- but there is more to success than two good pitches.

    Steady and Solid from the Leadership Position
    Football - A.J. Hawk; Baseball - Evan Longoria

    Many people wonder what the Packers would have done if Mario Williams had slipped to the fifth pick. Could they pass up a freakish athlete like Williams for the player they had targeted all along, Hawk? The former Buckeye hardly offers the size, strength and speed of many of his first round counterparts, but makes up for it in results. He was truly the nation's best linebacker and the leader of the Ohio State defense. He is a sure player that works hard, one that will step into Green Bay right away, but doesn't have the spectacular ceiling that some top ten picks possess.

    Just as the linebacking core is expected to lead the defense, Evan Longoria's pro position (shortstop) commands respect. After years at other infield positions, Longoria will move to short in the pros to maximize his output versus his peers. Widely considered the top position prospect in the draft, Longoria will likely never hit more than 20-25 home runs, or has little chance to win a batting title. But like fellow Dirtbag Troy Tulowitzki, Longoria will be able to get to AA quickly, and should produce in the minor leagues.

    Sears Tower Ceiling with a High Basement
    Football - Vernon Davis; Baseball - Brandon Morrow

    Davis is a big tight end with a huge body, good hands, and a 4.38 time in the 40. Morrow is a good-sized pitcher with a 99 mph fastball and devastating splitter. Davis has the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler at the tight end position, Morrow is a third pitch away from being an innings-eating ace. If all else fails, Morrow will become a reliever -- and likely a good one -- while Davis should never be worse than a mid-level starter.

    The two fit well, but if truth be told, Davis projects better in the NFL than Morrow does in the Majors. Davis has the total package, while Morrow might project to. He still doesn't have a third pitch, and his control is erratic at best. While Davis will be favored by many to win Rookie of the Year and help turn Alex Smith's career around, Morrow will have a lot of work to do to validate his selection.

    What a Difference Two Months Can Make in Millions
    Football - Donte Whitner; Baseball - Clayton Kershaw

    Many are already claiming that the Buffalo Bills selection of Donte Whitner is the draft's biggest reach. Why not trade down and draft Whitner in a lower slot, where many projected him to go? Criticize all you'd like, but at the end of the day, no one helped their draft stock since the Rose Bowl more than Whitner, once considered a fringe first rounder. A good athlete from a big program, Whitner rose to the top of the safety class, depending upon what position you project Michael Huff to. He now will spend the next few years of his life trying to prove he warranted the selection.

    Pitching has been hailed as the 2006 draft's strength for almost an entire year now. We always knew the college crop was loaded, but people also loved some of the talent that a few high school arms offered - Colten Williams or Jordan Walden. But while many of the high school arms have been just OK this spring, Clayton Kershaw has worked his way up draft boards, and could be the first prep pitcher selected. Scouts love the southpaw's size, his arsenal, his consistency. But once he is drafted in the first round come June, people will question whether Kershaw's spring warrants seven figures.

    When Size Matters Most
    Football - Haloti Ngata; Baseball - Dellin Betances

    Ray Lewis has been calling for Ngata's selection all spring, salivating at the possibility of having a big body in front of him for the first time since the Sam Adams / Tony Siragusa duo. Ngata will surely command double teams at times thanks to his giant, 338-pound frame. He can thank his weight for his high selection, just as Betances will be able to thank his height in June. Betances, a Brooklyn right-hander with plus velocity, is loved by scouts. They have all seen the three pitch arsenal before, but Betances stands out because of a 6-9 frame that offers room to fill out. You can bet that on draft day, some scouting director will be salivating just as Lewis did a month and a half before.

    With Injury Come Doubts
    Football - LenDale White; Baseball - Dallas Buck

    Once nearly guaranteed of becoming a first round pick, a horrible spring led to LenDale White's drop to the middle of the second round. Character issues were raised, and questions about his hamstring and work ethic surfaced to lead to White's freefall down draft boards. Still, the Tennessee Titans were confident in their selection of White, holding the belief that at full strength, they found a bargain in the second. Dallas Buck was once named by Peter Gammons as a possible top pick, but decreased velocity and a strained shoulder ligament see his stock falling. Buck, like White, has produced on the field, but it likely won't be enough for him to salvage a good selection.

    Bringing the Punch, On and Off
    Football - Ernie Sims; Baseball - Kyle Drabek

    Receivers going across the middle of the field feared their lives in Tallahassee this past fall, just as Texas hitters currently are intimidated by Drabek. Sims is a sure tackler with great ability on the football field. Drabek has the pedigree and stuff to be seen by many as the top prep prospect in the draft. But in both cases, character issues come as red flags. Sims' stock wasn't effected by his character issues, which are like Drabek's, generally considered minor. Kyle will be considered as high as fourth overall, so for 45 more days, he'll have to continue to invoke fear in those that attempt to hit against him.

    The Safe, Strong Route
    Football - D'Brickashaw Ferguson; Baseball - Matt LaPorta

    Many Jets fans are wondering why their team passed on former Heisman winner Matt Leinart for an offensive lineman. And certainly, in June, the idea of drafting a college first baseman won't be universally loved. But in both instances, it's a safe pick. Ferguson will likely be starting in the first week of the season, his college career prepped him. It's likely that he will be the Jets best lineman. LaPorta will also rise quickly, as even a midseason injury has not hindered his fantastic power output. Pancake blocks aren't quite as sexy as the home run, but in both instances, power is the important factor in these prospects.

    When You Thought He Couldn't Budge
    Football - Matt Leinart; Baseball - Max Scherzer

    After returning to USC, Leinart was favored to repeat as college football's Heisman Trophy winner. Many college baseball fans preferred Scherzer to Andrew Miller in January to win the Golden Spikes Award. While Leinart did little to hurt his stock during the year, Scherzer's injury plagued spring has allowed multiple collegiate pitchers to pass him. Leinart's criticized for his lack of mobility and strength, Scherzer for his third pitch and inconsistency. Leinart, once considered a lack for the top three, fell to tenth on draft day. And when I thought it impossible for Scherzer to slip out of the top two, it appears his spring coupled with his ties to Scott Boras could lead to a worse slip than Leinart.

    Toss-Up, All-Star or Bust
    Football - Jay Cutler; Baseball - Drew Stubbs

    People will never criticize Stubbs for not playing a hard enough schedule as a Texas Longhorn. Cutler has endured such criticism, apparently not earning enough wins for people in a subpar program. Stubbs has played through a national championship, and his flaws include contact issues that could forever plague his batting average. In both instances, the player's athletic ability will win out and warrant a high selection. Cutler is relatively mobile in the pocket with a fantastic arm, Stubbs plays better defense than most big league centerfielders. Both players could cause a lot of money to be flushed down the toilet, but in both instances, the potential is too good to pass up on.

    Going Beyond Guns and Watches
    Football - Chad Jackson; Baseball - Jordan Walden

    No one ran a faster 40 at the combine than Chad Jackson. In the winter, Walden often threw the fastest pitch at a showcase. However, neither number can overshadow flaws. Jackson, considered by some the top WR in the draft, fell from the first round despite his speed-size combination. Walden, once considered a better bet than Kershaw or Drabek, could see control issues push him to the first round's back end. Scouts understand that track and velocity abilities don't always translate to success, and few players are hurt more by this principle than Jackson and Walden.

    Making Coach Proud - A Team Effort
    Football - N.C. State Defensive Line; Baseball - UNC Pitching Staff

    Not many football programs can watch three lineman drafted in the first round following a disappointing season. After spending a season hovering around .500, the Wolfpack had Mario Williams, Manny Lawson and John McCargo all taken in the first round. North Carolina won't have the luck to have all three of their aces taken so high, but Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard are both first round talents. Miller, like Williams, offers a potential that validates a first overall selection. Bard and Lawson are both inconsistent, and both flash All-Star skills. McCargo is undoubtedly a better prospect than the likes of Robert Woodard or Jonathan Hovis, but at least the latter two can boast a successful collegiate career.

    WTNYApril 28, 2006
    True Colors
    By Bryan Smith

    Apologists will blame Elijah Dukes. Or the Devil Rays front office. Or a bad call by a replacement ump. But simply put, there is no excuse. Delmon Young's gaffe on Wednesday was as embarrassing, immature and irresponsible an action as a twenty year old can produce.

    For those unaware, following a strikeout against Jon Lester in Pawtucket on Wednesday, Delmon Young argued strikes and balls with the umpire. This was no surprising act for a phenom suspended a year ago for bumping an umpire in a similar situation. After jawing and standing in the batter's box for too long following his strikeout, the umpire justifiably ejected Young. Delmon, then walking towards the Durham Bulls' bench, threw his bat, hitting the ump across the chest. Video is at MILB.com.

    Young is now suspended indefinitely, deserving of a ten-game suspension. The move highlights the belief that Young's largest weakness as a prospect, and he doesn't have many, is a lack of maturity. And without question, this is a problem more important than numbers-crunchers will believe. Young will enter 2007 with high expectations, a blue-chip prospect starting in the Majors at the age of 21. A lack of poise could certainly lead to a bad year.

    Prior to his outburst, Young was in the midst of an odd season. Lauded for his power projectability, Delmon has now played 21 games without a home run. In fact, the former top overall draft pick has just four extra-base hits and a .392 slugging percentage through 79 at-bats. Instead, he's showing the skillset of a leadoff hitter, showing great contact skills -- a .329 average and low 13.9 K% -- and good baserunning (12/13 SB).

    Currently, the Devil Rays are receiving a line of .240/.293/.480 from right field. Now, a team already patient with their prospects will (in all likelihood) push back the timetable for their best youngster. Not only has Young delayed the date of his first home run in 2006, but he has also delayed his debut in Tampa.

    From a talent standpoint, Delmon Young isn't far from being Major League ready. However, Delmon has now made it all-too-obvious that from a maturity standpoint, he isn't close.

    Other notes from around the minor leagues...

  • With a week of play under his belt, there is no better time than now to begin analyzing another former top choice, Justin Upton. Upton's raw statistics are good, he's 9/26 with three steals, three doubles, four walks and five strikeouts. His line reads: .346/.433/.462. From these numbers alone, we can understand that Upton has fantastic speed, good patience, moderate power and contact skills that need improving.

    But there is more to be read into. Since starting his season 1-for-9, Upton has caught fire, eight for his last seventeen. He's relatively untested in center, with no assists or errors as of yet. His baserunning has been sound, although Justin's last attempt was a caught stealing. To me, what most speaks volumes about his play is this: there have been 21 balls that Upton has put into play this year. Given the game logs at MILB.com, we know that in these 21 instances, Upton has pulled 10 balls, gone with 8 the opposite way, and hit three to center.

    Speed, patience, developing power, and a balanced approach at the plate. Justin Upton has just begun.

  • Staying in the Midwest League, another hot 2005 draftee is the Cardinals' first round pick Colby Rasmus. After seven games, Rasmus had collected just two hits and was batting .071/.188/.071. Since then, the product of Alabama has caught fire , collecting 25 hits in his last 64 at-bats. His line, during that time, is .391/.426/.625.

    My first minor league game of the season was last night, catching the majority of a 15-inning game in which Rasmus hit his third home run, a right field shot off Kyle Waldrop. Rasmus impressed me a great deal, showing a patient approach at the plate which later yielded a walk. Colby was great running the bases, stealing second after each of his two singles.

    In the one game in which I have seen from Rasmus thus far, my guess is that he is a fastball hitter. Two of his three hits, including the home run, were off heaters. His lone strikeout, a horrible swing at a slow, Yohan Pino curveball. If Rasmus can better stay back on slow stuff, the patient, powerful teenager has a fantastic ceiling.

  • In addition to Rasmus, the game I attended last night pitted two former first-round pitchers against each other: Kyle Waldrop (Twins) and Mark McCormick (Cardinals).

    Waldrop, 20, was a first round pick by the Twins in 2004 from a Tennessee high school. All the praise surrounding Waldrop centered upon his polish, including the best change-up of his senior class. In 2004, Waldrop wasn't great in 27 Beloit starts, with a 4.98 ERA, 182 hits and 17 home runs in 151.2 innings. Kyle struck out just 108 batters, while walking only 23.

    Last night was nothing out of the ordinary for Waldrop. In 4.1 innings, Kyle allowed 8 hits, including the home run to Rasmus. He struck out four batters, mostly on his great change, walking none. Waldrop offers an unimpressive fastball, with decent sink, good control, and very little velocity. His curve is inconsistent, poor in many ways, and the result of an inconsistent delivery. I don't see future success for Waldrop, but stranger things have happened.

    McCormick, on the other hand, comes with a far more decorated history. Baylor's Friday Night pitcher in 2005, McCormick had a 2.96 ERA in the Big 12, and was drafted 43rd overall because of a fantastic fastball. He dropped that late because of poor control, at Baylor, McCormick had walked 152 batters in 223 innings. Entering his Thursday start, McCormick's Midwest League career had started with three inconsistent starts: 16 strikeouts, 13 walks, 9 hits allowed in 13.2 innings.

    And like Waldrop, McCormick's performance was no great surprise. The right-hander didn't allow any runs and just two hits in 6 innings; he overmatched the Beloit Snappers. His fastball was fantastic -- easily above 95 -- but an odd hitch in his delivery seemed to promote a lack of control. His curve was also inconsistent, but when he snapped it, it helped in a few of his six strikeouts.

    I think McCormick could have a future in the Bigs; his fastball was as good as I've seen in the minors in awhile. But, if he does, it will in all likelihood come in a relief role, and following a great deal of time spent with a pitching coach.

  • While McCormick's six shutout innings were a personal best, his start was hardly the best of a great Thursday for high-level pitching prospects. Homer Bailey, a breakout prospect of mine (and one that I figured would end the year in my top 20), lowered his ERA by 0.95 points with six shutout innings of his own.

    In his six innings, Bailey did not allow a single hit, his only baserunners the result of two walks. His dominance was also evident in the strikeouts column, where Homer whiffed nine in his six innings of work. Suddenly, Homer's stats for the year look more impressive: in 26.1 innings, the Cincy phenom has allowed 18 hits and 7 walks, while striking out 29.

    But even six hitless innings couldn't make for the best start of the day. Instead, we turn our heads to AAA, where former first rounder Cole Hamels was making his debut at the level. Following four successful starts in the Florida State League, Hamels was promoted to the International League, skipping AA. In his debut, Hamels may have his best start of his 33-start minor league career.

    Playing against blue-chip prospect Lastings Milledge and the Norfolk Tides, Hamels allowed three hits and no walks in seven shutout innings. Hamels dominance, founded upon three great pitches, produced 14 strikeouts. When healthy, and acting mature, Hamels is one of the game's top five (or so) pitching prospects. Along with Gio Gonzalez (1.48 ERA through 4 AA starts), the Phillies have one of the best pitching prospect tandems in the Major Leagues.

    And, without question, it's much needed. The current Philadelphia staff offers Brett Myers, a stud and significant part of the Phillies long-term plans. After that, the group worsens. The other four pitchers -- Cory Lidle, Jon Lieber, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson -- have not fared so well, allowing 80 runs in 92.1 innings, good for an obscene 7.80 ERA.

    Less than a month into the season, the fog is beginning to clear in Philadelphia. The verdict: Cole Hamels and Gio Gonzalez belong, where Cory Lidle and Gavin Floyd do not.

  • WTNYApril 25, 2006
    Sanchez Slowly Catching Pack
    By Bryan Smith

    When evaluating the resume of the minor league's hottest hitter, there appears to be two misprints: the year drafted, and that 1 before the decimal point in his current OPS. It is these surprising truths that make Marlins prospect Gaby Sanchez the intriguing story of baseball's first month.

    It would appear that many prospects, in many organizations, follow the Sanchez path. Had he been drafted in 2004, the Marlins would simply have been credited with giving Gaby rest after a long, draining college season. They, borrowing philosophies from other organizations like the Cubs, would even delay the beginning of his first professional season until the short-season leagues had started. It would be following Sanchez' second Spring Training that his full season debut would take place.

    But, again, Sanchez' resume contains no typos. His path has not been well-traveled. He's just making up for lost time.

    Sanchez, drafted in the fourth round of 2005 from the University of Miami-Florida, brought with him two years of good experience. In both 2003 and 2004, he had played in 62 games for the Hurricanes, hitting seven home runs and boasting a .300+ batting average. After a successful summer in the Cape Cod League, Sanchez entered 2005 as an All-American candidate. His draft prospects were high, as were projections for a Miami offense boasting a heart of Sanchez, Ryan Braun and Jon Jay. Then, all of a sudden, it was gone. Sanchez then broke team rules and was subsequently suspended from game play during his junior season.

    A third baseman during his college career, Sanchez' suspension luckily did not extend to practices. Given time to experiment, Sanchez did, strapping on catcher's gear and kneeling behind the plate. It was this versatility, in addition to his respected and powerful bat, that made Sanchez worthy of the Marlins' $250,000 investment.

    However, even a year's worth of hard work has not sped the Marlins plans for him. Florida maintains his transition to catcher will be slow, as Sanchez manned just 29 innings behind the plate through 17 games. The results, for the most part, have been positive. In a league in which baserunners have succeeded at a 70% clip in 386 chances through Sunday, Sanchez has thrown out each of the four attempted base stealers he has faced. His throwing arm will support his move to the mask, his athleticism will not.

    In fact, Gaby's athleticism will not help him at any position, besides Designated Hitter. In 2006, Sanchez has played in 12 games at first base, and already the Miami product has committed four errors. While range is not a trait emphasized in young catchers, critics maintain Sanchez' lack of agility will stunt his transition in the long run. They don't, however, question his bat.

    Likely sent to the South Atlantic League for his defensive inexperience, Gaby has hit like a 22-year-old should in low-A. After collecting two hits and a home run in his season debut, Sanchez pushed forward, registering a hit in the next nine games in which he would register an at-bat. The lone exception was his fourth game, following a 5-for-5 effort on April 8, when Sanchez would walk in all four plate appearances. At the end of his torrid ten-game streak, Sanchez was hitting .465 with seven home runs and six walks. He was the minors' own Chris Shelton.

    As statistics tend to do, Sanchez' numbers regressed in the last week, though his pace has hardly come to a halt. In the seven games since Sanchez hit his seventh home run, Gaby has eight hits in 25 at-bats, with just one walk and one extra-base hit. Perfection has escaped Sanchez, juggling the minors best set of statistics with multiple positions.

    If nothing else, Sanchez -- along with 2005 Texas suspendee Sam LeCure (25/5 K/BB ratio in FSL) -- speaks highly to a particular draft strategy. Oftentimes, these players teach us, the nation's great programs do as much behind-the-scenes preparation as they show us on the diamond. Without the pedigree and resources that Miami and Texas provide, these two talents could still be toiling in the world of aluminum bats. One-time big program talents (Nick Adenhart fits, too) should now be considered to be worth mid-round selections and early round money, even despite a delayed pay-off.

    Catching prospects, for the most part, can be twisted and contorted into three molds. First, at the top, are the blue-chip players, well-rounded and suited for a future everyday role. The minors ain't exactly chock full of 'em. Instead, there are either catchers primarily adept with the glove or the bat. The former are referred to as "future back-ups" while the defenseless are thrust down the defensive spectrum or onto the bench.

    Until further notice, Sanchez is the latter, the hitter with the 1.233 OPS, four errors and a passed ball. But, unlike other failed-catcher stories (see: Ryan Garko, Craig Wilson, etc), this situation provides hope. Sanchez, just a year into his transition and perfect against opposing baserunners, has the ceiling to put the Marlins gamble in the money.

    Looking at the other top catching prospects in the minors...

  • Like was said earlier, the everyday catcher is an extremely rare commodity. The current minor league landscape speaks volumes to this fact, as I believe there are currently just four prospects that will go onto catching 120 games a season at the Major League level: Jeff Clement (Mariners), Russ Martin (Dodgers), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Braves), and Neil Walker (Pirates). Three of these players -- all but Martin -- could see their defensive inadequacies moved to another position. One, Walker, is out for a month following wrist surgery. It isn't a position of depth.

    Of the group, it is Salty's bat that gives him the nod for tops at the position. After a great 2005, Jarrod's 3-for-3, 2B, HR outing yesterday has raised his numbers to respectable levels. But with Brian McCann at the League level, it will take a lot for Salty to knock down the door. The same is true for Jeff Clement, last year's third overall pick, watching as his .382 Texas League OBP is shrugged off thanks to Kenji Johjima.

    Not only does Martin's defensive prowess promise to keep him behind the dish, but his organization does as well. Intrigues with Dioner Navarro be damned, Martin is creating his own timetable in Las Vegas. Currently, Martin has continued his patient and consistent ways (9/7 BB-K rate vs. 51 AB's), while merely showing traces of replacement level, big league power.

  • For the second straight season, April is proving to be a powerful month for Diamondback prospect Miguel Montero. Last year we saw Montero's breakout start out of the gates, and before long, he had been promoted out of the California League. Don't expect Arizona to be quite as trigger-happy in 2006, even given similar fantastic numbers. What is so amazing about Montero's start has been his balance of power (10 XBH's), contact (just 8 K's) and patience (13 walks).

    Houston will, in all certainty, also soon be approaching the "to promote or not to promote' question, soon. Community college steal Justin Towles' start should remind some of Hunter Pence's 2005 beginning. However, Towles great start seems to emphasize the "sample size" warning more than that of Montero's or Pence's. Because while collecting 18 hits in 38 at-bats, Towles has just five extra-base hits, 2 walks, and has struck out eight times.

    Other big starts include 2005 draftees Caleb Moore (.364/.397/.473, MIN) and Bryan Anderson (.412/.512/.500, STL), both showing high hit rates in the Midwest League. And don't forget the Brewers' Angel Salome, a 20-year-old with patience, budding power, and just three strikeouts in 65 at-bats. Finally, two former college draftees, Chris Iannetta and Kurt Suzuki, have also started on positives notes in 2006. Of the two, expect Iannetta's skillset, and future ballpark, to shine the brightest.

  • Conversely, no positional group is complete without the proper set of slump victims. Double-A "talents" like Miguel Perez (CIN) and Curtis Thigpen (TOR) are currently hitting .184 and .211, respectively. Brandon Snyder, a first-round pick last June (whom followed with a fantastic debut), has been a disappointment in the Orioles farm system with a .268 on-base percentage. Other '05 draftees, collegiate selections Chris Robinson and Nick Hundley, have been awful, as neither has a .250+ slugging percentage.

  • And finally, we'll close things out today with a ranking of the big ten catching prospects in the minors right now:

    1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Braves
    2. Russ Martin - Dodgers
    3. Jeff Clement - Mariners
    4. Neil Walker - Pirates
    5. Miguel Montero - Diamondbacks
    6. George Kottaras - Padres
    7. Brandon Snyder - Orioles
    8. Gaby Sanchez - Marlins
    9. Justin Towles - Astros
    10. Chris Iannetta - Rockies
    11. Angel Salome - Brewers

  • WTNYApril 21, 2006
    Friday Bullets
    By Bryan Smith

    Disheartened by Derrek, lifted by Lind, fascinated by Francisco and more in this week's casual Friday notes column, covering everything from college to the Majors...

  • Sample size be damned, I am officially jumping onto the Alex Rios bandwagon. The fifth overall prospect in my first published prospect list, Rios has had me kicking myself for nearly a year and a half (13-18 on the list: Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Delmon Young, Bobby Crosby) with his sub-.100 ISOs. However, I was in attendance last weekend when Rios slugged his fourth home run of the season on a Mark Buehrle fastball. It simply seems as though Rios has more strength than in each of the last two seasons, as the home run barely made it over the fence -- likely a fly out in 2004 or 2005.

    Another difference in Rios' play this season is likely an issue of pitch selection. Before the 2004 season I stated that Rios had some of the best contact skills in the minor leagues. In 2149 career minor league at-bats, Rios struck out just 296 times, a fantastic 13.8%. Entering 2006, his Major League career had already produced 185 strikeouts, whiffing in 20.4% of his at-bats. Alex isn't the type of player that will draw 50+ walks at the Major League level, but instead will live and die by his ability to hit the ball, and to do so with power.

    With increased strength and improved pitch selection, Rios is a dangerous player. As early as this season, he could begin to become one of the best power/speed threats in the American League.

  • Try as he might, Rios is not the hottest property of the Toronto Blue Jays. To find that, however, you have to look in the direction of New Hampshire, the organization's AA affiliate. Adam Lind, a player on my preseason breakout list, is in the middle of a fantastic streak. In the first eight games of the season, Lind struggled, collecting just six hits in his first 26 at-bats, including only one for extra bases (and an uncharacteristic seven strikeouts).

    Since then, he has caught fire. On April 15, Lind had a hit in each of his four at-bats, two of which were home runs. This was the beginning of a six game streak in which Lind is 12/24, striking out just once while hitting five home runs. My faith in Lind's power breakout was founded upon a high doubles rate, a tough league and stadium, and a July streak that proved Lind's potential. I do believe he is starting to realize it.

    Luckily, Lind brought my April batting average to my breakout list to .250. We have previously detailed Reid Brignac's hot start, which has his OPS well over .900. Besides these two players, things aren't looking great. Brad Harman has just one extra-base hit versus 12 strikeouts in his first 48 at-bats. Mark Trumbo's first nine games include just 5 hits and zero walks. Adam Bostick has issued 13 walks in 13.2 innings. Neither Garrett Mock or Homer Bailey have been particularly impressive. Let's just hope Christian Garcia returns to the mound soon, and returns to it well.

  • Someone asked me what I would do if put in Jim Hendry's chair, forced to find someone to replace Derrek Lee with. My response was to have Jacque Jones start fielding groundballs at first base, while putting Felix Pie in right field for the Iowa Cubs. While the long-term prospects of Jones at first base are laughable, Pie is the member of the Cubs organization best suited for replacing a bit bat in this lineup.

    In the first 10% of his minor league season, Pie has done everything in the leadoff role for the I-Cubs: seven extra-base hits, six walks, three steals. Pie would bring electricity to a Cubs lineup that will enter their series against the Cardinals as very lifeless. But instead, Dusty Baker is left picking between John Mabry and Jerry Hairston/Neifi Perez. It isn't a good situation.

  • Over at Baseball America, Jim Callis posted an update on his top twenty draft prospects for the coming June. Max Scherzer's low ranking comes in as a bit of a surprise, but given his injury, the Missouri right-hander might now be a reach for the Colorado Rockies, drafting second. My current belief is that the organization should go with Brandon Morrow, the pitcher least dependent on a breaking pitch of those in consideration. Coors Field has never mixed well with breaking balls, but it's hard to imagine Morrow's power splitter being too affected by the thin air.

    The most surprising inclusion on the list is probably Brett Sinkbeil, a player we talked about last summer from the Cape Cod League pitching well for Missouri State. Sinkbeil is a tall, lanky right-hander that projects well to add velocity as he fills out. As of right now, he has good control of a sinking, 90-94 mph pitch. His specific draft selection will depend upon the improvements of his secondary stuff this spring. In my preseason talks with Missouri State pitching coach Paul Evans, he said that as a sophomore, Brett had "difficulties finishing off hitters when he got to 2-strike counts." If Sinkbeil shows scouts he can throw his slider for strikes, and trusts his change-up enough, Callis' ranking indicates a first round selection isn't out of the picture.

    Tim Lincecum is third on this list, and at this point in time, I'd guess he is drafted by the Seattle Mariners. Thanks to hometown ties -- as well as the M's being the least frugal team in the top five -- the pick makes sense. Also, one spot ahead, don't be shocked if the Pirates grab right-hander Kyle Drabek. Or, at least, you can bet he would be the marketing department's selection, given his familial ties with a certain former Bucs' ace.

  • Sadly, Francisco Liriano allowed his first earned run of the season Wednesday, as a walk, steal and single brought his ERA up to 0.96. Nonetheless, Liriano has been one of the most impressive young players in all of baseball thus far, boasting a 3.0 G/F ratio to go with his 14.5 K/9 rate. Apparently, hitters have trouble with sliders that can touch 92 mph.

  • Also on Wednesday, viewers were treated to the best Javier Vazquez outing in years, as the White Sox newest right-hander took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The end? A check-swing single by Doug Mientkiewicz that simply would not roll foul, as much as Joe Crede willed it to do so. Vazquez was in complete control in the outing, mixing pinpoint fastball control with a devastating curve and change. This came just a day after Jose Contreras' dominating outing; with Roger Clemens out of baseball, Contreras has the game's best splitter. He's my dark horse Cy Young pick.

    But back to Mientkiewicz, who would be hitting .205 had his check swing been brought back an inch more. Meanwhile, Justin Huber is batting .372/.481/.814 in the Pacific Coast League. As much as some have attempted to justify the Royals winter veteran movement, the presence of third-tier thirtysomethings will not help in the win column. Instead, it will force good players like Huber into building a bit too much into their minor league credentials.

    And Royals fans shouldn't be totally hopeless. Thanks to one of the best journalistic articles of the young baseball season, we learn that Zack Greinke is progressing back towards pitching in 2006. Greinke, Andrew Miller, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. It's a start.

  • WTNYApril 19, 2006
    Minors Not Short on Talent
    By Bryan Smith

    One of the complaints that followed the former Devil Ray front office clan -- led by Chuck Lamar -- centered around B.J. Upton. Lucky enough to draft him in 2002 (thanks to a Pirates gaffe), Upton's bat predictably tore through the minors. Conversely, his glove played as if it had a tear down the center.

    Entering the season, Upton's minor league line read: .304/.396/.474, in over 1,400 at-bats. By contrast, the Devil Rays' left side hit about .290/.350/.430 last year. Fans called for Bossman's promotion. Lamar and company pointed to his fielding record: 144 errors in 367 games. Fans called for a position change. The front office went silent.

    While Lou Piniella had toyed with the idea of using Upton at the hot corner in 2004, last year Upton played in Durham while no one offered a direction. When the group was fired, Tampa fans reveled in the hope that Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker would bring Upton Blueprints.

    Thus far, the two have been bailed out as Upton's bat has yet to warm up. In fact, the current Devil Ray SS line (.273/.360/.386) is better than Upton's in the International League. However, his patient approach and aggressive baserunning mentality (8/9 already this season) have left Tampa fans again salivating. But again, they remain disappointed, as all the focus has been on Upton's fielding: 7 errors in his first 11 games.

    Despite the pessimism that Upton's fielding record produces, no one questions that his future is bright. They do question, however, the existence of a plan.

    A long-term plan like the organization that B.J.'s brother was just drafted into. A prep superstar with a scouting report more glowing than his brother, Justin Upton was drafted listed at the most ideal position on the defensive spectrum. However, when he opens his season in a few weeks, Upton will be in centerfield, where the club believes it can best utilize Upton's arm. Once magnificently wild in high school, it will now be difficult for Justin to overthrow his target.

    In addition to his mistake-prone issues at shortstop, the first overall pick was also moved thanks to foresight by the D-Backs' new front office. Like Tampa with Upton, Arizona was lucky on draft day to land their blue-chip shortstop -- Stephen Drew, who fell into the teens in 2004 thanks to signability concerns. Once signed, the path to the Majors was set into action for Stephen, who began his minor league career by tearing up the California League last season.

    Now playing for Tucson in the Pacific Coast League, Drew is -- like Upton -- struggling in the early going. Fans have been put off by his .269 OBP, as well as a high strikeout percentage: 12 in 48 at-bats. However, there is a sign of the player chosen to lead Arizona into the next decade -- four home runs through his first twelve games. No one expected AAA to be easy for Drew, barely removed from AA, and he has plenty of time to be acclimated.

    Craig Counsell signed with Arizona in December of 2004, months after the club had drafted Drew, months before they signed him. Now, the two-year contract to which Counsell was handed appears to be the perfect length, as Stephen will be given a full season to prepare for the Major Leagues. There will be no worries about player's catching him from the minors, or some veteran taking his slot. Drew is aware that on Opening Day, 2007, the shortstop job in Phoenix is his until he loses it.

    This is what the Devil Rays need to provide Upton: a clear view at his future. With that weight off Upton's shoulders, it might be then that his potential is truly untapped. Once the undeniable best shortstop prospect in the minors, the Tampa front office has allowed Upton to lose that label.

    Looking at the other top shortstop prospects in the minors...

  • As I said, Upton is no longer on top of the shortstop heap. Instead, at least on my list, Bossman currently ranks third overall. He's one slot behind Drew, the powerful man with the plan, a guaranteed job at a particular position. Ahead of both of them is Brandon Wood, also likely questioning the motives of his front office, currently in their second year of a four-year contract with Orlando Cabrera.

    Wood is already putting pressure on the Angels to consider moving Cabrera, or even, move Wood to the hot corner. His power spike has not dulled in eleven contests, as Brandon has eight extra-base hits in 44 at-bats. However, before Wood holds Bill Stoneman's hands to the fire and forces him to make a move, the strikeouts need to decrease. With fifteen whiffs already in eleven games, Brandon is doing nothing to inspire projections of his future batting average. Even given his weaknesses and uncertainty, Wood's big-time power leaves him with an advantage over both Stephen Drew and B.J. Upton.

  • Looking at the second tier, I see three obvious names, with three more players looking to bang down the door. Last year's top ten pick Troy Tulowitzki leads the group, only an exit from Sample Size Theatre away from joining the first pack. I believe in Troy as a player, and sincerely believe Clint Barmes will be out of the organization or at second base in about a year. However, Tulo could inspire even more faith if he proved a bit more patient, added a bit of power (lots of gaps thus far), and toned down the strikeouts. Complaints in each offensive department, I know, but it won't take significant changes to make him a top 25-caliber talent.

    While Tulo is close to spending most of his time in Coors Field, our other second tier shortstops are a simple injury or slump away. Dustin Pedroia needs to restore his own injury before Boston becomes a reality, but it isn't as if the Sox are too emotionally invested into Alex Gonzalez. Pedroia, a small player with limited upside but nearly guaranteed certainty, should be up by the trade deadline.

    Erick Aybar should be in Los Angeles before then. Cabrera's contract be damned, Aybar is ready, currently hitting .348/.362/.543 in Salt Lake. It appears at this point that Aybar has certain flaws that we will simply have to deal with: a lack of baserunning instincts, no discernable plate discipline, and no great power. But given his good contact abilties, plus speed and great defense, Aybar has everything needed to become a Major League shortstop. Everything but a job.

  • As we move down our shortstop rankings, we find players far more removed from the Major League landscape. No talent better exemplifies this than Elvis Andrus, currently the Rome Braves starting shortstop at the tender age of 17. Andrus drew rave reviews from his short-season companions last year, but has hardly kept his name in the news this April. Showing pretty good patience and contact skills, complaints will almost certainly rally around his inevitable raw weaknesses: undeveloped power, baserunning ignorance, and fielding mistakes. The fact that Andrus could have three minor league seasons to improve in these areas before reaching 20 is what makes Elvis the most intriguing Brave prospect.

    Readers know the players I find most intriguing -- the group I choose each season as my projected breakout players. One this season, Reid Brignac, has assured himself good early season statistics by hitting three home runs in a game earlier this season. Besides that, Brignac is off to a start that proves his potential. It is his ceiling that has me thinking Brignac might be a better prospect than Marcus Sanders, one of the two biggest Shortstop Slumpers of the early season. Since Opening Day, in which Sanders doubled and walked, the Giant prospect has reached base just three times, and never via the extra-base hit. Still, once the ball starts to find the holes, Sanders will start again wreaking havoc on the basepaths and proving his future as the projected Giants leadoff hitter.

  • On the next level there is a slew of players, easily broken in to a few groups. Predictably, one if filled with fantastic defensive players destined for bench careers or mediocrity in starting roles. Leading this clan in potential is Alcides Escobar, who has dazzled in High-A so far. While Kevin Goldstein pointed out yesterday that Escobar's plate discipline is on an upswing, the opposiote seems true with the White Sox' Robert Valido, walkless in 50 at-bats. At this point, neither he nor Tony Giarratano (.250 OBP, 1 walk) have proven to be anything more than defensive specialists.

  • Before diving into the world of 2005 draftees, there are four that don't fit into that category that merit mention. Two are first rounders from 2004, both of whom disappointed in low-A last year. The Twins moved Trevor Plouffe up to the FSL after his Midwest League disaster, and his .446 OBP certainly shows signs of life. A similar heartbeat has not been found in Chris Nelson, former top ten pick repeating low-A. Don't let the .295 batting average fool you, it's empty, his lack of power and patience are currently producing a .744 OPS.

    While many pegged those two players for breakout seasons, I opted for Australian Brad Harman. Also in the FSL, Harman has shown nothing close to Plouffe's polish. Instead, Harman has been awful, hitting just .205/.289/.231 through his first 11 games. His struggles outshine even those of Eduardo Nunez, a PECOTA sleeper with a similar sub-.600 OPS in the Florida State League. Something must be in the water in the Sunshine State.

  • It's foolish not to trust scouts and scouting directors, to shy away from the rankings that these professionals created. In 2005, shortstops were drafted in this order, following Tulowitzki: C.J. Henry, Cliff Pennington, Tyler Greene, and Jeff Bianchi. Henry is now on the DL, a hamstring problem after struggling in his debut. Pennington has struggled like no one else in April, sporting a .114 slugging percentage as we speak. And Greene has been awful as well, striking out 17 times in his first 32 at-bats. Bianchi is rising up prospect lists simply by not playing, at this point.

  • Time to close this article out with a ranking of the top ten shortstop prospects in the minors right now:

    1. Brandon Wood - Angels
    2. Stephen Drew - Diamondbacks
    3. B.J. Upton - Devil Rays
    4. Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies
    5. Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox
    6. Erick Aybar - Angels
    7. Elvis Andrus - Braves
    8. Reid Brignac - Devil Rays
    9. Marcus Sanders - Giants
    10. Alcides Escobar - Brewers

  • WTNYApril 17, 2006
    Pluses and Minuses
    By Bryan Smith

    For those following the upcoming June amateur draft, 2006 has been a year of cynicism. While no one ever proclaimed the '06 class to be top-heavy, the preseason talk centered around one of the best and deepest group of pitchers in recent memory.

    After a 2005 draft in which no pitcher was chosen among the first five picks, the tables were set to be turned in 2006. However, one by one, the wheels have come off for many of the junior blue chippers. Max Scherzer, injured. Daniel Bard, inconsistent. Dallas Buck, ineffective.

    With the draft just about two short months away, player's stocks seem as volatile as ever. Take Ian Kennedy as an example. Early in the season, we saw the player many had labeled the safest pick in the draft, dominant through three starts.

    Opponent IP H ER K BB
    Long Beach State 6 5 3 7 1
    Florida International 7 3 0 10 2
    Kansas 8.2 1 0 13 3

    However, what followed was a string of mediocrity, when Kennedy proved as flappable as anyone in the country. He hadn't suffered such a slump in all his years as a Trojan.

    Opponent IP H ER K BB
    Hawaii 7 7 3 5 2
    Georgia 6.2 9 3 11 2
    Stanford 6.1 9 5 2 1
    Oregon State 6 6 1 5 5
    Stanford 6.1 9 5 6 2

    But with one start, the stock of Ian Kennedy was back. Pitching against Brandon Morrow and the rival California Bears, Kennedy went ten innings to earn his first win in quite a few outings. He showed great control and pitchability in addition to proving his valuable "innings-eater" label.

    This week, unfortunately, Kennedy could not keep scouts' spirits high. Pitching in the thin air of Tempe, Arizona, Kennedy had his worst start of the year: 11 hits and 8 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Despite his best efforts, Kennedy has been pronounced a first rounder through all of 2006's trials and tribulations. But as the last two weeks have shown, single starts will have plenty of impact on how much slot money Ian is allotted.

    Without question, each member of this year's draft class comes with a serious number of caveats. Here's one attempt at balancing the positives and negatives with a few players making movement on draft boards...

    Tim Lincecum, RHP: Washington

    If the season ended today, no player would be more deserving of the Golden Spikes trophy. It took Lincecum a while to get going, but since he has not looked back. A quick glance at his last four starts, in which he has not yielded an earned run:

    Opponent IP H ER K BB BF
    Brigham Young 6 1 0 14 1 20
    Arizona State 9 2 0 12 4 33
    UCLA 9 2 0 18 1 31
    California 8 5 0 8 3 32

    During this streak, Lincecum has struck out about 45% of the hitters he has faced. He has been so dominant, in fact, that just 16.4% of these batters have reached base via a hit or walk. Once full of control problems, Lincecum has been on point since rocky starts against Santa Clara and Cal Poly.

    Statistically, Lincecum is at the top of college baseball. He could very well enter an organization with the nation's most prestigious prize. In addition, he will come with maybe the most devastating two-pitch combination out there, with a mid 90s fastball and devastating curve. Everything rosy?

    Not exactly. While scouts fixate on Lincecum's tiny frame, others point to a workload that would run most pitchers ragged. In four straight starts the Huskie faced more than 30 batters, during which time he also pitched in relief on short rest. The best player on an overachieving team, Lincecum is ridden very hard.

    While some pitchers can thank a rubber arm for endurance, some see Lincecum as a ticking time bomb. His herky-jerky delivery, mixed with that small frame and heavy workload, seems to be a definite sign of arm trouble down the road. Once considered a third round pick because of this red flag, Lincecum's dominance has some teams hoping to play roulette.

    Matt Antonelli, 3B/2B: Wake Forest

    I have been tooting Antonelli's horn in this space for quite some time now, as I fell in love with his patience-athleticism combination display in the Cape last year. Even while Antonelli started to show newly-developed power this year, I said the former football and hockey star could handle a move to the middle of the diamond.

    Someone was listening. After showing his offensive versatility with a move from the middle of the order to the leadoff slot, Antonelli started to show versatility in the field this past weekend. For the first time in his career, Antonelli helped the Demon Deacons at another position, playing half the series at second base. Certainly, this will not help alleviate the long-standing comparison to Edgardo Alfonzo.

    Entering the season as a definite early round selection, many think his newfound power (hitting his 11th homer on Sunday) will undoubtedly lead to a first round selection. But be careful, as teams are not afraid to look at context. At his site, Boyd Nation ranks the Division I baseball teams each week, top to bottom.

    According to Nation's rankings, Wake Forest has played nine top 100 teams this year, playing 18 games against the group. More of his games have been against worse teams, including six games against club's ranked below the 200 slot. Against the 11 schools he has faced ranked below 100, Antonelli has been dominant, hitting .430 with 20 of his 25 extra-base hits.

    However, when up against the best his schedule has to offer, it has been a different story for Antonelli. Against the nine top 100 teams, Matt is just 17/69, good for a .246 average and .391 slugging percentage. While being able to pound Wright State and Virginia Tech is important, Antonelli has much to prove in upcoming weekend series against Florida State, Miami and Clemson. His performance should dictate whether or not Antonelli is among the top 30 picks in the draft.

    Daniel Bard, RHP: North Carolina

    For the first time in the school's history, the Tar Heel baseball team was recently given the #1 overall ranking by one outlet. This fact goes far to validate much of the preseason hype surrounding North Carolina, seen by many as the most top heavy baseball team in the nation.

    "With those two, how could they lose?" one reader asked me, referring to the consensus top-six pitchers Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. But while Miller has been fantastic, staying consistent and on pace to be drafted first overall, Bard is pitching his way out of the top ten. Instead of two sure-fire wins per weekend, extra onus has been placed on other Tar Heels, like shortstop Josh Horton, third ace Robert Woodard, and closer Andrew Carnigan.

    This past weekend, Bard had his first quality start in five outings. By shutting out Virginia Tech (ranked #131 by Boyd), Bard put a temporary stop to his recent decline. Still, the right-hander walked five batters in 7 innings, bringing the five-start total to 20 in 26.1 innings.

    Like Antonelli, Bard has struggled against the best on the Tar Heel schedule. In three consecutive starts against good programs in Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami, Bard failed to make it out of the fifth inning. He allowed eleven earned runs in 12 innings. Without the slider -- a potential plus pitch with the development of consistency -- Bard is just another hard thrower.

    Early in the season, I claimed Bard had cemented his status as one of the nation's top three pitchers, and was challenging Scherzer for the second spot. Oops. Now, both Brandon Morrow and Brad Lincoln have firmly moved past Bard, who will be in a two-month race with a few other starters for the fifth college pitcher selected honor.

    Greg Reynolds, RHP: Stanford

    Personally, I have never understood it. OK, Brandon Morrow had an ERA over 9.00 his sophomore year. And Max Scherzer was a disaster as a freshman. I get that, but each balances those poor statistics with an upper 90s mph fastball. While Greg Reynolds possesses good stuff and great size, I have never understood the love for Reynolds.

    Like Kennedy and Bard, Reynolds appeal is for his early season statistics. Through four starts, Reynolds was validating the preseason hype, especially after dominating Fresno State, striking out 11 in 7.2 innings. Since, Greg has only been impressive in one start, against the Cardinal's lone second half cookie-cutter opponent: San Jose State.

    Reynolds is a mixed bag in every sense of the phrase. His delivery isn't fluid enough, and his head-bobbing wind up is blamed for control problems. But Reynolds also offers fantastic arm action to go with his size, indicating a lot of velocity and pitchability in his future.

    But with first round picks, results are important. Without a better resume, Reynolds stands to have a more disappointing draft day than many are projecting.

    Rounding out the Pitchers

    After a bad couple months, Joba Chamberlain had a big weekend pitching against Texas A&M. With Bard and Kennedy, he has a chance at becoming the fifth college pitcher drafted. As do the two college closers -- Mark Melancon and Blair Erickson -- though that's probably too early for both. Melancon was out this past weekend, while Erickson had an unsuccessful attempt at the rotation. Sleeper Josh Butler has been too hittable for San Diego this past week, and now stands as a fringe first rounder. Jared Hughes is in the same boat, and with a big finish, teammate Andrew Carpenter could catch him. Falling is Dallas Buck, who finally this weekend had a good start (if not dominant) against a good team.

    Other Big Hitters

    Wes Hodges had a good weekend, and his numbers are sitting at the best point of his season. While I still question whether his power will make it to the next level, it's hard to imagine he slips past the middle of the first round. The same is true for Drew Stubbs, who will be worth the gamble for some team. He is the Tyler Greene, if more talented, of 2006. Slugger Matt LaPorta continues his all-or-nothing ways; I'm convinced Mark Hamilton (Tulane) will make for the better choice. Finally, look for some teams to snatch up sure-fire players like Chad Tracy and Shane Robinson around supplemental draft time.

    College baseball's short season makes each weekend more important than the previous. In a world where Tim Lincecum is mentioned for the top overall pick thanks to four fantastic starts, expect major changes in common draft mentality before the next time I bring this up. Welcome to the world of "ping."

    WTNYApril 11, 2006
    Youth Moving North
    By Bryan Smith

    This past winter, the Chicago Cubs spent $38.5 million on three overpriced relievers on the wrong side of their peaks. They traded 3 blossoming young pitchers for a center fielder with no power coming off the worst season of his career. Right field was filled with a hitter lacking in big-time power and the ability to hit southpaws. And, inevitably, their two headline starters were deemed not ready for Opening Day.

    By April 3, Cubs fans were ready to cry their typical, "Wait 'Til Next Year." What's odd, however, is that this call to the future suddenly provides genuine hope: there is reason for optimism around the bend.

    Despite a little pressure from the front office, Dusty Baker's opening day lineup card featured two young guns: 23-year-old shortstop Ronny Cedeno and 24-year-old left fielder Matt Murton. While young pitchers have been in and out of the North Side for the past five years, recent history has offered Wrigley Field visitors few looks at prospect position players. Corey Patterson didn't instill very much confidence.

    But in his first at-bat of the new season, Murton proved me (and others) wrong, hitting a 3-run homer that would lead to the eventual Cubs victory. His three-hit effort provided a glimpse to a bright future, one with consistent contact and steady, solid power. Cedeno has built confidence with great defense, an early season five-game hitting streak, and a 4-for-4 effort on the Cubs largest stage yet.

    Those that tuned into Sunday Night Baseball were also lucky enough to see a 25-and-under starter that entered the big leagues without daunting comparisons to Tom Seaver or Nolan Ryan. Sean Marshall -- on my 2005 breakout list, though he saved his big jump for Arizona, 2006 -- became the Cubs fourth starter in the most non-Dusty move of the current manager's tenure. In the face of other, older (though not by much) options, Baker opted for a southpaw with a blend of poise and upside narrowly removed from A-ball. For that, he should be commended.

    A quick glance at Marshall's line (4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 K, 1 BB) instills the image of a true rookie, producing nightmares of Steve Smyth for Cubs fans. However, Marshall was far better than his line suggests. His two-seam fastball was controlled and consistently down in the zone, producing 8 groundball outs. His cutter was a great mix, jamming right-handers, and his curve showed fantastic potential. He made one gaffe -- a belt-high fastball that Scott Rolen tatooed -- and was taken from the game too early to fix his own bases loaded mistake.

    While Marshall doesn't bring with him a ceiling that matches Cubs pitching prospects of old, the poise he showed Sunday was a welcome addition to the Cubs future plans. Amidst the uncertainty of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and soon-recalled Angel Guzman are more dependable options like Carlos Zambrano and Marshall. It's a future rotation in desperate need of sixth and seventh starters on deck, without question, but it also has top-of-the-NL upside.

    If Angel Guzman is the next phenom set to join the Cubs, Felix Pie is likely the most anticipated. The long-boasted young outfielder has started his AAA season magnificently, batting .500 through four games. In them, Pie has also collected two triples and three (for three) stolen bases. The 'raw' labels are starting to become replaced with 'ready'. While Juan Pierre currently stands in the way -- and his constant praise and considerable cost does pose an unnecessary burden -- one can only think Jim Hendry will provide a path for Pie when needed.

    Offensively, Hendry has only become locked in to his most necessary players. As of today, both Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee will be officially in blue until Pie's superstardom. While the development of Murton, Pie and Cedeno are all essential to long-term success, Lee and Ramirez provide the team with needed certainty. Middle of the order certainty. And Michael Barrett, fast becoming a clutch-legend in the Windy City, will be in town (at the very least) through 2007.

    The Cubs are also financially committed to their bullpen, in which their three game-ending veterans will be in town until the end of 2008. Relievers, however, age slowly, so the Cubs will need to mix keeping Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry healthy while finding other cheap options like they have in Mike Wuertz, Will Ohman and even Scott Williamson. This balance, between expensive and inexpensive, is essential. Despite trading away possible lenders in Ricky Nolasco and Renyel Pinto (among others), others like Carlos Marmol and Jae-Kuk Ryu should keep the Cubs options plentiful for some time.

    At the end of the season, Jim Hendry will be forced to make decisions regarding his aging mentor (Greg Maddux), steady second baseman (Todd Walker), and a slew of other role players. The idea of trading Kerry Wood, and even Mark Prior, will undoubtedly pass by his desk more than once. The temptation of big-name free agents will have the Cubs making calls.

    Chicago is in a good position for the 2007 season not because of the money they have to spend. Instead, it will be Jim Hendry's ability to make meaningful miniscule additions (Murton, maybe Freddie Bynum) and to cultivate enough prospects that will leave the North Side on top for some time.

    Notes From Below the Surface

  • For those of you curious to know what Andrew Miller might pitch like, Sunday Night Baseball could have provided you just that. While Sean Marshall is a poor man's Miller, they are not without similarities. Both are big southpaws (6-6 or 6-7) known for inducing groundball outs via a two-seam fastball and cutter. However, Miller trades in Marshall's plus command and sweeping curve for some extra velocity and a tight, vicious slider. In addition, the North Carolina ace and probable #1 pick offers a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s that can catch hitters off guard.

  • Clearing up any preseason questions, my predicted breakouts for 2006: Homer Bailey, Adam Lind, Garrett Mock, Christian Garcia, Brad Harman, Mark Trumbo and Chuck Lofgren. The latter is the only player to not make the BP article I wrote in January, but I have since come to really develop some faith in the athletic, Indian southpaw. First week returns, however, have not been positive on the group. Both Bailey and Mock lost their debuts while pitching decent-but-supbar, while Garcia and Lofgren have yet to start the season. Of the hitters, Trumbo is a ghastly 2-for-14 thus far, while Harman and Lind are merely treading water. April be damned, I'm still advocating to buy low on all of these players.

  • Pitchers that have made big opening week impressions, however, include Adam Loewen, Lance Broadway, Humberto Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez and Mark McCormick. Loewen might be the most interesting case, as he needs a big year before his Major League contract kicks in. Sanchez could be the Arizona Fall League darling of the spring, and provide the Tigers with yet another live, young arm. Finally, an early season sleeper (damn, missed him!) is Tyler Lumsden, a White Sox pitching prospect that is healthy, reportedly full of velocity, and already dominating.

  • In case you needed reminding, Howie Kendick is really good. A nice office pool bet: what date does Adam Kennedy return to the Cardinals (via trade) so that the Angels can bring up their blue-chip prospect? And, certainly, I expect Kendrick's 9-for-17 start to change a few answers.

  • Finally, a kudos is in order for Ian Kennedy, who went ten innings this past weekend to beat California and notch his first win in quite some time. Kennedy was free-falling a bit on draft boards before this start, but his Jack Morris-esque effort brought back comments of his "bulldog" mentality that led to Kennedy's high standing. A big finish will make scouts forget about the month of March, but Kennedy could certainly stand to start striking out hitters as if it were his sophomore season all over again.

    Back with more on Friday...

  • WTNYApril 05, 2006
    Wood and Metal
    By Bryan Smith

    By the end of this week, baseball in all forms will be back. Every Major League Baseball team has now played their first game, and the minor league season begins April 7. The wooden bats join the aluminum ranks that have been competing since February.

    So for the first time in 2006, the week has provided me with a wealth of information and opinions to share. As will likely become a tradition this year, here is a notes column detailing everyone from young veterans to college teenagers. Enjoy...

    ROOKIE WATCH

    We knew this was coming, didn't we Prince Fielder fantasy owners? As I mentioned during Fielder's slow Spring Training, the big guy has a history of slow Aprils. So while 7 strikeouts in eight at-bats would be scary to any sane baseball fan, don't lose confidence and start yearning for Lyle Overbay or ... worse ... Jeff Cirillo. Expect a gradual decrease in strikeouts as the year progresses, as well as an increase in home runs. Still a future star, as is Edwin Encarnacion, another highly touted young player with a bad debut. Patience is a virtue with phenoms.

    Interestingly enough, it has been the less touted rookies that I have noticed thus far. Marlins rookies Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham were both close to making my top 100 prospect list, but limited skillsets scared me from each. This looks stupid thus far, as Jacobs and Willingham were integral in up-ending the Astros in their second game.

    Chris Denorfia was the opposite case to these two, missing out on the top 100 for having a skillset too rounded. So much of Denorfia screams "FOURTH OUTFIELDER!", though I have began to think Denorfia is the right third outfielder for that club (if only because Adam Dunn's Opening Day performance might be the worst OF defense in the history of baseball ... seriously). Chris' double to centerfield in his first at-bat was an impressive display of power. The Reds have more than a future bench player in Denorfia, who in some ways reminds me of Gary Matthews Jr.

    Real power was on display in Joel Zumaya's first appearance as a reliever, in which the young right-hander struck out three batters in two innings of work. Zumaya should be a force with his mid-to-high 90s fastball and hard-breaking curve out of the pen, but I pray it doesn't infatuate Jim Leyland too much. Other former starters relieving that impressed early -- besides Brandon McCarthy and Jon Papelbon whom were mentioned yesterday -- were Adam Wainwright and Chuck James, both less skilled players than Zumaya.

    Finally, no rookie watch is complete without a mention of Kenji Johjima, who hit his second home run of the season last night. Johjima has a natural feel for the game that is quickly becoming the most positive trait of Japanese position player veterans. If Kenji shows this type of power at home, in Safeco Field, his trips to Dallas should make for good fun.

    MINING THE REST OF THE PRE-ARB CAMP

    I made a mistake. In picking preseason breakout candidates -- and looking mighty deep for sleepers -- I chose Ben Johnson and Blaine Boyer. Johnson is currently being inexplicably blocked by the likes of Eric Young and Terrmel Sledge, while Boyer is further from the Atlanta closing job than ever. Apparently, I should have gone with option C -- which in all honesty, was Sergio Mitre.

    After years of watching Mitre thrust into different roles in Chicago, I was pleased to see the Juan Pierre trade allow him to spread his wings. While his potential is extremely limited, Mitre has all the makings of becoming a rubber-armed, groundball invoking middle of the rotation starter. If Jake Westbrook has value in Cleveland, Mitre can have long-standing value in San Antonio, err, Miami.

    Bold predictions have become a staple of the Internet, and while the season is underway, it's not too late for one last guess: Brian McCann is going to hit at least 25 HR's this year. His first was almost nullified when the Los Angeles-Atlanta game was delayed yesterday, but the clubs finished and McCann's first homer went into the books. Brian's power potential is no secret, and I firmly believe it becomes unveiled this year.

    Some quick thoughts to round it out: if you didn't think so three days ago, it's time to come around - David Wright and Rickie Weeks are future perennial NL All-Star starters ... Ambiorix Burgos has absolute lights-out stuff, and really should be a bright spot in KC, who can't be wedded to the 9th-inning-only closer idea ... Khalil Greene continued from impressing me in spring to doing so in his first game; while many predicted Bobby Crosby to win AL MVP, it's not a stretch to say former first-round mate Greene could be a better player in the end ... It isn't one start or one spring that is making me say this: if you own Dontrelle Willis in a keeper league, trade him once his value gets a bit higher. His future seems to be as clouded as ever.

    UNDER THE SURFACE

    No notes here, since games have not begun and I don't have a myriad of thoughts yet. But with the announcement that Justin Upton will begin the season two weeks late, in the Midwest League, playing centerfield, I won't leave you with nothing.

    First of all, the Diamondbacks should be lauded for this decision. If anything, it was too late, as Upton should have been learning the tricks of the outfield trade since the beginning of Spring Training. A rough senior year in the field provided evidence that Upton's infield career was headed down the same path as his brother's. His arm was so erratic in high school, but at the very least, it never lacked power.

    If Carlos Gonzales breaks out to the degree that Jim Callis and Kevin Goldstein have predicted -- and it's tough to get two better backers -- then we can say that Arizona now has four of the game's best outfield prospects: Upton, Gonzales, Chris Young and Carlos Quentin. In the end, only three can fit into the long-term plans, so, who doesn't fit.

    Upton is obviously in the team's future plans, and my guess is that he will stay in centerfield for quite some time - no better D-Back prospect has better speed. Besides, while Young's range is fantastic, a move to left field could help minimize his one defensive weakness: a lack of arm strength. Young is in the team's future, too, they chose to trade for him just a few months ago. These players are locks.

    So it's down to Quentin and Gonzales for the final spot, in right field. And simply put, I think the Diamondbacks have put a good majority of their chips behind the latter's corner. Quentin has not been shown a lot of confidence from the organization that drafted him, as the club barely pursued the idea of trading Shawn Green to make room for him. Instead, it was Quentin's name that was brought up in trade rumors, namely to the outfield starved St. Louis Cardinals.

    When July rolls around, expect Arizona to really re-evaluate their outfield situation. If Gonzales hits the California League in a big way -- and that is no bold prediction -- then Quentin could be moving teams by August 1. Not often are top 20 prospects blocked in from above and behind, so some Major League organization must step up and take advantage. Any takers?

    METAL MUSINGS

    At this point in time, it seems as though sixteen college players have separated from the pack and identified themselves as first round picks. As Lance Broadway proved last year, these things are susceptible to change, but there are probably only a handful of players that could even do so (I will provide deeper lists as we inch closer to the draft). Before I divulge my current list, here's the hot/cold list as seen in the past couple weeks:

  • Hot: Brad Lincoln (Houston) - While the Cougars do not have the schedule of a big program, Lincoln has been the most consistently dominant performer this spring. Many of Lincoln's peripherals are par for the first round course (48 H, 83 K's, 1.62 ERA in 66.2 IP), but it's the rest of his package that has flown Lincoln up draft boards. His consistency, endurance, and control have all been excellent thus far, as Brad has been great in every start since mid-February. And to boot, Lincoln has been fantastic as a hitter, showing athleticism that few other pitchers can match. Remaining starts against Tulane and Rice will dictate where in the top 15 Lincoln takes his talented arsenal - he has top 5 overall potential.

  • Cold: Ian Kennedy - On February 17, against Kansas, Kennedy struck out 13 batters in 8.1 innings while allowing just one hit and an unearned run. He had preceded that outing with good starts against Florida International and Long Beach State, and was poised to become the third pitcher chosen in the draft. Since dominating the Jayhawks, however, Kennedy has not taken a game by storm and the Trojans have lost each of his starts. The strikeouts, endurance and bulldog mentality remain, but Kennedy is showing flaws he didn't expose as a sophomore. He's on the outside of the top 5 college pitchers list and looking in, but given his solid schedule, a good final two months could mean a re-entry into the top ten.

  • Hot: Josh Butler (San Diego) - No team took college baseball by storm out of the gate like the Toreros, sweeping then-#1 Texas to start the season. While San Diego has slowed a bit since then, they have been well-anchored by ace junior Josh Butler, who has joined the first round ranks. His fastball has been in the mid 90s this spring, and Butler's miniscule 1.13 ERA has had the scouts buzzing. A better strikeout rate and secondary arsenal would help Butler, but he has done enough to move into the first round.

  • Cold: Dallas Buck (Ore. St.) - There had been a time when Peter Gammons mentioned Buck as a #1 overall candidate, and many times when people (myself included) thought Buck was a lock to take his sinker into the Rockies organization. But the fact is that since conference play began more than a year ago, Dallas has been less than impressive. After a poor showing in the Cape, Buck's control has been off, his demeanor has worsened, and his velocity is down. The Kevin Brown potential remains, but any certainty in his future is gone. If any player from the top 16 is going to fall from grace, it will be this guy.

    Onto my current top 16 list, with a few comments mixed in. By the way, if you are interested in any of the videos of the West Coast players here, head over to Calleaguers.com, as the collection of videos (and velocity reports) have been gathering for the past two months. College baseball's top 16 juniors...

    1. Andrew Miller (UNC) - KC all but locked into this pick.
    2. Max Scherzer (Mizzou)
    3. Daniel Bard (UNC) - His groundball numbers might be reason for going #2 overall.
    4. Evan Longoria (LBSU)
    5. Brad Lincoln (Houston) - Forget the recent Houston failures, this isn't Rice.
    6. Brandon Morrow (Cal) - Command issues remain ; I really see Joel Zumaya.
    7. Drew Stubbs (Texas)
    8. Joba Chamberlain (Neb) - Hanging on by a thread
    9. Ian Kennedy (USC)
    10. Wes Hodges (GTech) - Frustrating lack of power consistency
    11. Matt LaPorta (Fla)
    12. Mark Melancon (AZ) - .222 SLG Against in thin Arizona air.
    13. Matt Antonelli (Wake)
    14. Josh Butler (SD)
    15. Dallas Buck (OSU)
    16. Jared Hughes (LBSU) - Scouts trust control, size and sinker

    Many will surely be writing in with complaints about the omission of Greg Reynolds, whom Kevin Goldstein recently mentioned as a first round lock. Kevin may be right, but if so, let me stress how poor the selection would be. A nice blend of size and stuff, to be sure, but Reynolds lacks any meaningful results to speak of. Tacking together two consecutive solid starts would be nice.

  • WTNYMarch 28, 2006
    2006 Minor League Preview: The Graduates
    By Bryan Smith

    As a hobby, following prospects is a lonely, lonely practice. Each year, dozens of the players that you have evaluated since their prep days become Major Leaguers and enter the world of objectification through statistics. They graduate from the minor league ranks, graduate from 'prospect' labels.

    Last year, 29 players that ranked in my 2005 Top 100 made such a graduation, becoming eligible in Rookie of the Year voting. No longer can we sit back and wonder whether Felix Hernandez' delivery will hold up through a full Major League season, or if Ryan Howard's power potential will be realized. These questions are becoming answers in front of our eyes.

    In part one of my series to preview the 2006 minor league season, I want to look at the best players that will be making such a jump this year. Thanks to preseason reports, I have faith that 16 members of my top 100 will be on a Major League roster on Opening Day. Some are being thrust into full-time roles, learning on the run, while others are being weaned into Major Leaguers. While still others (found at the bottom of the article) might still be on Opening Day rosters or be called up before June, these 16 are the mortal locks to become this year's set of graduates.

    For each of the sixteen players, I have tried to provide you with a multitude of information to discern who might be the best in 2006. First, the players are ranked in the same order (and preceded by the same number) in which I ranked them in my 2006 WTNY prospect list. After the player's name and organization, there are three categories given for each player. One is the role, the information given from the most recent reports I could find about where the player will start the season (fantasy owners can thank me later). Second, the 'projection/comps' category provides the weighted mean and top 3 comparable players that are found in Baseball Prospectus 2006, contrived by their famous projection system: PECOTA. Finally, I quickly conclude with a look at the player's Spring Training, and while it might not have much predictive value, will provide some reasoning for their place on active rosters.

    2. Jeremy Hermida: Florida Marlins

    Role: Starting Right Fielder, #2 hitter
    Projection/Comps: .257/.361/.439, .282 EqA; Jack Cust, Clint Hurdle, Tom Brunansky
    Spring Performance: .214/.328/.268 in 56 at-bats. Solid patience and contact problems still a part of his game, power has been lacking.

    4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

    Role: Starting First Baseman, Middle of Order
    Projection/Comps: .268/.349/.488, .280 EqA; Greg Luzinski, Hee Seop Choi, Dernell Stenson
    Spring Performance: .282/.429/.487 in 39 at-bats. Has overcome slow start with a big finish. Key has been only five whiffs, making a Carlos Pena career unlikely.

    5. Francisco Liriano - LHP - Minnesota Twins

    Role: Back of bullpen, middle/long relief; 6th starter
    Projection/Comps: 3.87 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 150 K, 27.1 VORP; Curt Simmons, Bob Moose, Johnny Podres
    Spring Performance: 3H/4IP, 2ER, 4K/1BB for Twins; 3H/5.1IP, 1ER, 8K/3BB in WBC. Showed mid-90s fastball and low-90s slider in WBC that left many drooling. Performance convinced Twins to keep him on roster.

    8. Matt Cain - RHP - San Francisco Giants

    Role: Fourth Starter
    Projection/Comps: 4.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 K, 14.4 VORP; Denny McLain, Gary Nolan, Oliver Perez
    Spring Performance: 26H/18.2IP, 16ER, 14K/5BB. Inconsistency has hurt Cain this March, as well as his flyball tendencies, which have yielded three home runs. At times, however, the Giants have seen the phenom whom pitched so well last September.

    12. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals

    Role: Starting Third Baseman, #5 hitter
    Projection/Comps: .289/.334/.462, .273 EqA; Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Joe Torre
    Spring Performance: .318/.375/.621 in 66 at-bats. Has shown fantastic power with 5 home runs, as well as 5 doubles. However, his significant strengths (contact, defense) have been missing: 16 strikeouts, 6 errors.

    13. Justin Verlander - RHP - Detroit Tigers

    Role: Fifth Starter
    Projection/Comps: 4.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 112K, 19.4 VORP; Seung Song, Dennis Tankersley, John Maine
    Spring Performance: 17H/18.2IP, 7ER, 16K/10BB. A model of control in 2005, Verlander has not shown the same ability this Spring. Nor has he prevented the home run well, allowing three thus far.

    16. Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks

    Role: Starting First Baseman, #5 hitter
    Projection/Comps: .269/.359/.439, .268 EqA; Nate Espy, Paul McAnulty, Paul Konerko.
    Spring Performance: .452/.558/.762 in 42 at-bats. One of Arizona's most impressive players, Jackson has managed to outplay Tony Clark's .999 spring OPS. Conor has struck out just twice thus far, which upon first glance looks like a misprint.

    20. Scott Olsen - LHP - Florida Marlins

    Role: Fourth/Fifth Starter
    Projection/Comps: 4.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 118 K, 7.0 VORP; Chuck Stobbs, Ken Holtzman, Pete Falcone.
    Spring Performance: 13H/19.2IP, 6ER, 9K/5BB. Peripheral numbers are lacking in a sense, but Olsen has been among Florida's best young guns. Earned rotation spot.

    22. Jon Papelbon - RHP - Boston Red Sox

    Role: Middle relief, 6th starter and 2nd/3rd closer option
    Projection/Comps: 4.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 74 K, 8.4 VORP; Art Mahaffey, Kelvim Escobar, Barry Latman.
    Spring Performance: 25H/19.1IP, 12ER, 9K/8BB. Given the possibility of taking a rotation spot (and forcing a David Wells trade), Papelbon failed. A good start to the season in the bullpen will go a long way in dictating Jon's future role.

    23. Joel Zumaya - RHP - Detroit Tigers

    Role: Back of bullpen, middle/long relief; 6th starter
    Projection/Comps: 4.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 140 K, 12.5 VORP; Dick Drott, Dave Morehead, Dave Boswell
    Spring Performance: 8H/12.2IP, 9ER, 10K/5BB. Despite ERA and 4 home runs allowed, Zumaya has earned a lot praise and his rotation spot. His electrifying stuff will be slowly harnessed in bullpen, Jim Leyland wants to work him in the Earl Weaver style.

    30. Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles

    Role: Starting Outfielder (CF?), towards bottom of lineup
    Projection/Comps: .263/.326/.403, .254 EqA; Laynce Nix, Richard Brown, Jody Gerut.
    Spring Performance: .340/.438/.509 in 53 at-bats. Fantastic. Has shown gap power, good contact abilities and outstanding patience this March. Orioles brass has been impressed enough to allow Markakis to skip to the Majors despite just 124 AB.

    33. Brian Anderson - OF - Chicago White Sox

    Role: Starting Centerfielder, back of lineup
    Projection/Comps: .269/.329/.468, .265 EqA; Ron Swoboda, Roy Sievers, Dwight Evans.
    Spring Performance: .316/.375/.526 in 57 at-bats. Impressive performance, but hardly jaw-dropping. Has shown gap power in excess, but doesn't look to be much of a home run hitter. His 1/5 spring on the basepaths should put a frown on any fantasy owner's face.

    36. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins

    Role: Starting Shortstop, leadoff hitter
    Projection/Comps: .258/.313/.367, .241 EqA; Kenny Perez, Felipe Lopez, Jason Bourgeois.
    Spring Performance: .339/.361/.644 in 59 at-bats. Finally given a challenge, Ramirez stepped up to the plate with 8 extra-base hits in less than sixty at-bats. His lack of discipline should make Joe Girardi think twice when he puts Ramirez atop his order, however.

    59. Jeff Mathis - C - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Role: Starting Catcher, back of lineup
    Projection/Comps: .241/.302/.403, .245 EqA; Guillermo Quiroz, Fernando Tatis, Cole Liniak.
    Spring Performance: .321/.441/.607 in 28 at-bats. Despite being hampered by hand injuries, Mathis has been very solid this spring. His contact problems should be a strain over the course of the whole season, but the Angels are hoping Mathis' patience and power outweighs that.

    62. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers

    Role: Starting Second Baseman, back of lineup
    Projection/Comps: .270/.328/.451, .261 EqA; Daniel Garcia, Alfonso Soriano, Rick Schu.
    Spring Performance: .238/.347/.548 in 42 at-bats. Ian has played with a sense of fluidity this spring that convinced the Rangers he was their man weeks into Spring Training. Minor baserunning and contact flaws don't detract much from a solid all-around game.

    HM. Josh Barfield - 2B - San Diego Padres

    Role: Starting Second Baseman, back of lineup
    Projection/Comps: .260/.322/.416, .260 EqA; Cass Michaels, Tony Batista, Fernando Tatis.
    Spring Performance: .386/.413/.705 in 44 at-bats. Without question, one of the stories of the spring. Barfield proved his 2005 performance was not a PCL-fluke with 11 extra-base hits this spring, mostly doubles. His lack of patience has been a problem, but that's nitpicking on a great month of baseball.

    Without question, the sixteen players listed should be considered the favorites to compete for the Rookie of the Year trophies in 2006. They have the combination of what should be a full season's worth of playing time, in addition to a well-established prospect pedigree. Outside of this sixteen, there are two categories: the rookie fringe prospects, and the prospects yet to be rookies.

    For example, one player that did not rank among my top 100 prospects, though Baseball Prospectus gives a good chance to win the Rookie of the Year is Florida Marlins first baseman Mike Jacobs. The former catcher enters the year with a guaranteed job and a PECOTA weighted mean prediction of .265/.324/.491. With Carlos Delgado listed as his second-highest comparable, Jacobs could be the type of late bloomer that foils any prospect list.

    The ultimate example of a player in this category -- though one who has a 0% chance of winning the Rookie of the Year -- is the White Sox new southpaw reliever Boone Logan. Officially being named a member of the Opening Day roster provides icing on the cake of a Spring in which Logan yielded just one run in 10.1 innings. I should mention, since I didn't in my Arizona trip review, that I did catch one of his 7 appearances, and his ability to provoke ground balls should actually help a bullpen that is currently near shambles. With respect to Josh Barfield, Logan is the story of the spring: a simple arm angle change takes a former Rookie League bum to the World Champions' Opening Day roster. There have been worse movies in Hollywood.

    There are dozens of players in this category, some of whom just missed my top 100 (Joey Devine, Josh Willingham), others of whom garnered no consideration (Dan Uggla). However, with somewhat lacking histories in the minor leagues, these players have an onus to prove they belong that most of the top prospects listed above don't. Many players fold under this pressure, succomb and prove they don't belong, while others blossom into everyday Major Leaguers. That's why we watch.

    Our final category was the one responsible for the NL Rookie of the Year race last year. Ryan Howard and Jeff Francoeur spent last September battling for the award, though each started the year in the minor leagues. The names etched upon the Rookie of the Year trophy is flush with players in this category, those that waited to make their debuts but caused little time in making their presences felt. If 29 players from my 2005 prospect list were considered rookies last year, and 16 definite graduates are listed above, I'll close today's piece with a look at the 13 prospects most likely to start the year in the minors, but to have their names highlighted in boxscores by June.

  • Stephen Drew - SS - Diamondbacks: Will be called up immediately should Craig Counsell's injury prove more hindering than expected.
  • Andy Marte - 3B - Indians: Cleveland's weakness entering the season is the corner positions, and could be solved by calling up Marte.
  • Yusmeiro Petit - SP - Marlins: Florida should have rotation problems the whole year, meaning any hot streak should give Petit a spot in the mix.
  • Joel Guzman - LF - Dodgers: If Jose Cruz Jr. starts off slow, and the position change is a continuing success, Guzman has a good chance to be the '06 Francoeur.
  • Chris Young - CF - Diamondbacks: Might be Opening Day starter if not for hand injury; DaVanon and Byrnes won't look intimidating for long.
  • Anthony Reyes - SP - Cardinals: It shouldn't take long for St. Louis to realize their mistake and replace Sidney Ponson with Reyes.
  • Russ Martin - C - Dodgers: Dioner Navarro's injury could give Martin the opening day job; Navarro health would mean we have to wait for 2 months.
  • Dustin Pedroia - SS - Red Sox: Because Alex Gonzalez can't keep a fan base happy for too long.
  • Kendry Morales - DH - Angels: Mashed this Spring, earning a trip to AAA to start the year. Success could end Tim Salmon's career as an Angels.
  • Jonathan Broxton - RP - Dodgers: I like the idea to give Kuo a spot, but Broxton will come beating down the door before too long.
  • Chuck James - LHP - Braves: In the mix for a bullpen role, but best off as the 7th starter, Richmond ace, and eventual call-up.
  • Fernando Nieve - SP - Astros: A favorite of mine for years, I think the Astros would be crazy to pick Tyler Buchholz over him for the rotation.
  • Cesar Carillo - SP - Padres: If the Pads are better than we think, Carillo could be this year's version of Brandon McCarthy.

    For what it's worth, I believe the NL Rookie of the Year race -- so hyped with Hermida, Fielder, Cain and Zimmerman all in the Majors -- will be a runaway for Prince. As Ryan Howard proved last year, chicks still dig the longball. The American League is a harder race to handicap, far more prone for a late call-up making the big difference. Still, I can't bring myself to predict anyone but Francisco Liriano, who will tantalize voters in the second half with some of the game's most electric stuff.

    These are the players the minor leagues will be without in 2006, the players so influential just a year ago. In the next parts of this series, we'll look at those about to jump on board, and those ready to tantalize prospect evaluators this year.

  • WTNYMarch 21, 2006
    Mr. Smith Goes Back to Arizona (Act 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    To repeat, there are significant perils in Spring Training analysis. Sample sizes dilute both statistics and scouting. Behind-the-scenes factors make the whole picture hazy.

    In other words, this is a dangerous game. But that isn't about to stop me, so long that each reader takes my comments with a few handfuls of salt. My trip to Arizona last week allowed me to watch eight Major League Baseball teams, four in each league. I was left with dozens of impressions quickly scribbled into a notebook, some of which I wrote up yesterday.

    This is a compilation of the rest of those visceral opinions. One note before moving onto the National League...

  • Yesterday, I noted that Joe Borchard looked impressive against the Rockies, and insisted he deserved a spot on the White Sox bench over Pablo Ozuna. However, since then the Sox traded Borchard to the Mariners for Matt Thornton, where Joe will become a fifth outfielder. On a day in which Wily Mo Pena and Borchard were traded for two below-100 ERA+ pitchers, one has to wonder whether Larry Beinfest has lost his cell phone.

    San Diego Padres

    Seen: 3-5 loss to Rockies

  • Chris Young, all 6-10 of him, was the day's starter, and he pitched very modestly. Young seems to succeed on two pitches, a solid fastball that he can control pretty well (it's not quite there yet), and a change-up that was probably the best I saw on the trip. However, I'm afraid to be really successful, he needs to show a better curveball. His attempts at throwing the breaking pitch during this game were pretty atrocious, and as a result, the Rockies didn't struggle against him. I was not a fan of the Eaton trade for the Padres like most, simply because I believe Adam has a lot more potential than Chris. While PETCO Park will help make me look wrong, I'm still not convinced Young will be more than a mid-rotation innings eater.

  • Everytime I watch Khalil Greene play baseball, I'm shocked that he isn't a star yet. This thought continued in this game, where Greene showed his fluid swing off with a few base hits. He does everything very well, making a play to his right in the field that few shortstops could. His speed isn't great -- he was thrown out at the plate once -- but it's hardly a weakness. I am a big believer that the Padres would be best suited to bench Dave Roberts, start Ben Johnson, and make Khalil Greene their leadoff hitter. My guess is that it would jump-start two careers at once.

  • One of the most impressive relievers I saw all trip was Steve Andrade, the Padres' Rule 5 pick from the Toronto Blue Jays. Andrade faced five hitters in his appearance, and struck out three of them. Andrade is a heavy right-hander that produces good fastball velocity thanks to some massive thighs. He pitches off the fastball, using it to set up his strikeout pitch: a vicious, late breaking curveball. One strikeout was also via a change that he rarely threw, but will have a nice effect as a show-me pitch. I'm convinced that Andrade could relieve somewhere, and on a team like the Padres -- a little light in the bullpen -- holding onto Andrade makes perfect sense.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Seen: 4-8 loss to Royals

  • Looking over the Brewers boxscore, I see two errors: Tomo Ohka, Corey Koskie. Apparently, Prince Fielder escaped. But every Brewers fan in the stadium realized that one will have to hold their breath on every play that the big guy is involved in this year. In the first inning, Fielder allowed a single to his right that most first baseman would knock down. He later was unable to catch a Ohka pickoff attempt that I do believe many would. Finally, to cap off his disastrous inning, Fielder failed to convert a 3-6-3 double play when he dropped the ball, ending up in my scorebook as "3, unassisted."

    With J.J. Hardy not in the lineup, the Brewers bad infield defense was exposed. Koskie is an improvement over Russ Branyan, but not over Jeff Cirillo, who will receive less playing time this year. Bill Hall wasn't great at second, and is still light years better than Rickie Weeks, who might even be worse thanks to an oblique injury. But the worst of all is definitely Fielder, who will have a lot of hitting to do to overcome his inefficiencies. Luckily, few players looked better with the bat in this game than Prince.

  • Question: why is Tomo Ohka promised a rotation slot while players like David Bush and Dana Eveland fight for the fifth spot? I have seen Ohka pitch (coincidentally) about as often as any MLB pitcher, and I have never been impressed. He was awful in this game, allowing nine singles (as well as 2 XBH) in four innings. The hits against him were all hard, and it was clear Ohka was laboring on the mound. Tomo has the chance to succeed against teams that struggle with breaking pitches, but that is about all. In a full season of work, I have no doubts that both Bush and Eveland would greatly outperform Ohka. Even Mike Maddux can't save him.

  • My confidence in my Brewers prediction has severely faded since the Arizona trip, especially with lingering concerns of Weeks' health. Rickie's time off will open a slot for Bill Hall, who struck out in two of his three at-bats. Hall had a great season last year, but the Brewers were right in leaving him without a spot on Opening Day. In fact, Doug Melvin may have been best off trading Hall while his stock is high ... I'm not sure it will get any higher than this. Furthermore, Carlos Lee continues to look bad, not hitting the ball out of the infield in three at-bats. After his bellyflop against Cuba in the WBC, and this poor performance, predicting Lee to have a great contract year seems foolish.

    Chicago Cubs

    Seen: 7-6 win vs. Angels; 2-4 loss to Mariners

  • There is something to be said for aggressiveness, I know. But there is a lot more to be said about patience. This principle is not one the Cubs follow, and it was really evident in their win over the Angels. In the first inning, the Cubs forced Jeff Weaver to throw 27 pitches, 12 of which were balls. Ronny Cedeno would single in a run on a full count. After this at-bat, the Cubs would go 21 hitters without reaching ball 2. Step back and read this sentence again: 21 straight.

    The streak ended with Ryan Theriot in the seventh inning, and the Cubs would have far more success the rest of the game with minor leaguers exuding patience. The first innning, and after the seventh, the Cubs were impressive. From innings 2-7, they were no better than a last place offense. 21 straight hitters.

  • The two starters for the Cubs I saw were Jerome Williams and Rich Hill. Neither was impressive, though Williams calmed a bit as the game went on. Jerome was missing low a lot, a good sign for a groundball pitcher. His mistakes high were hit hard, starting in the first inning, when he allowed three hard-hit balls. Williams' velocity looks down a bit and his control isn't great, but the sinker is working. Seven groundball outs in four innings ain't bad.

    Rich Hill was far worse, allowing five runs in two innings of work. Vladimir Guerrero aside, the whole Angel team hit (or walked) Hill pretty hard. Most surprising to me was the Angels aggressiveness on the bases against a southpaw like Hill. It worked however, which was less an indication of catcher Geovany Soto, but instead Hill's weakness to hold runners on. Until he gains control his fastball, Hill has a long road ahead.

  • Another weakness of the Cubs this year will be their outfield defense. Matt Murton is simply not a good defensive outfielder -- and while I might have exaggerated his power inadequacies -- consistently making bad reads on balls. Pierre and Jones both seem pretty average, but Juan's arm is really bad. Third base coaches should be waving, waving, waving this year against Chicago. Jones and Murton looked very solid offensively, going a combined 5-for-8 in two games. Pierre isn't quite there yet, but he's hitting a ton of groundballs, the only way he knows how. Bronson Arroyo was the cost for Wily Mo Pena, but the Cubs gave up three pitchers for Pierre?

  • Impressions of young Cubs: Angel Pagan looks like Moises Alou at the plate, and performed like him, too. In four plate appearances, Pagan homered and walked twice. For a 25-year-old with a spotty minor league history, Pagan could have doubled as a successful fourth outfielder... Jake Fox is another who seems better than he's given credit for, unbelievably left off Baseball America's top 30 Cub prospects. Fox showed good power and a solid arm behind the plate against the Angels... Two consecutive plays against the Mariners encaptured Felix Pie's skillset as a prospect. On the first, Pie made a great read on a Cory Ransom liner, using his fantastic speed to get to the ball, and making a diving play for the out. On the next, Felix had a horrendous read on a Jeremy Reed double which almost ended up an inside-the-park home run. Consistency is needed... Brian Dopirak went 2-for-4 in two games, showing opposite field power and an improved approach. I'm buying his stock while it's low.

    Colorado Rockies

    Seen: 7-6 win over White Sox; 5-3 win over Padres

  • For better or worse, Aaron Cook is an exciting player to watch pitch. Any hitter must begin his at-bat knowing that his pitch is coming, as Cook does nothing but throw strikes. Cook threw 62 pitches in five innings of work against the White Sox, throwing just 12 balls. As a result, the Sox hit Cook pretty hard, as he gave up four runs (three earned). It's amazing he ever strikes anyone out. In my opinion, a pitching coach needs Cook to throw his pitches a little lower for more success. When down in the zone, Cook continually provoked groundball outs (seven in the game). His breaking pitch was thrown rarely, and needs tuning.

  • Utilizing Coors Field is a strength that any good fantasy owner should have. Therefore, it would not be stupid to use your draft's last pick on Cory Sullivan. The leadoff hitter against the White Sox, Sullivan homered against southpaw Neal Cotts. The former Wake Forest stand-out should garner quite a few stolen bases this year, and Coors will help push up his other offensive numbers. While most people love the prospect of Matt Holliday having a big 2006, forgetting Sullivan completely could turn out to be a mistake. In Coors, Sullivan is on the same plane as Corey Patterson, if not favorable.

    To recap, guys I liked this trip: Neal Cotts, Joe Borchard, Mike Napoli, Denny Bautista, John Buck, Khalil Greene, Steve Andrade, Jake Fox, Brian Dopirak, Cory Sullivan. Guys I didn't: Bobby Jenks, Brian Anderson, Vladimir Guerrero, Jeremy Reed, Chris Young, Tomo Ohka, Bill Hall, Aaron Cook. Mix together with salt.

  • WTNYMarch 20, 2006
    Mr. Smith Goes Back to Arizona
    By Bryan Smith

    Spring Training is a wonderful experience to watch, a fun blend of veterans and rookies, a loose atmosphere in comfortable environments. I am not sold on the fact, however, that Spring Training provides any real indication of the upcoming season, even from a scouting perspective.

    But that has not stopped me for trying. Last year, I looked flat-out stupid by criticizing the likes of Barry Zito, Lyle Overbay, Bartolo Colon, Jon Garland, and to an extent, Derrek Lee. There were some guys that swayed me opinion too positive: Jamie Moyer, Jason Schmidt, Chin-Hui Tsao, Ryan Drese.

    I was not all wrong, however, and that is what brings me to you today. Keith Ginter, J.J. Hardy, Rich Harden, Howie Kendrick, Russ Ortiz and Tadahito Iguchi are all players I had good reads on.

    If nothing else, this proves that I am more than a baseball fan than a scout. However, a fan can sometimes see things just as a scout would; we see positives and negatives from every game. In the last week I saw five baseball games in my return to Arizona, featuring four American League teams and four from the National League. In the next two days, we will be going over the impression I was left with from all eight.

    Chicago White Sox

    Seen: 6-7 loss to Colorado

  • Let's start with where the news is. Two days after I saw the White Sox play, Tracy Ringolsby wrote that Bobby Jenks "has lost up to 10 mph off his fastball." His comments came days after the appearance I saw in which Jenks gave up three runs in just one inning. The big right-hander walked three batters in the inning, while also allowing two hits.

    Shortly after the game I mentioned to someone that Jenks looked awful. His fastball control was awful, as he threw just 13 strikes in a 31-pitch inning. His fastball velocity wasn't the same, and while I didn't have a radar, I will venture that Ringolsby's reports seem exaggerated. Jenks problem was that he hardly flashed a curveball that he threw often in warm-ups, a likely indication that he isn't quite ready for the season.

    With Dustin Hermanson in pain, a leftie spot up for grabs and uncertainty from the closer, the White Sox bullpen could be the team's most discernable April weakness. Until he proves otherwise, I suggest you pass on Jenks.

  • If there is some underlying issue in regards to Jenks, I would suggest Neal Cotts be named closer. After allowing a home run to the first batter, left-handed hitter Cory Sullivan, Cotts settled down and looked fantastic. He retired the next six hitters in order, striking out three batters in a combined 13 pitches. The home run was a startling beginning, but Cotts proved that a relief role is perfect for him.

  • The game's star was Joe Borchard, who had an RBI in his first two at-bats, and a double to lead off the seventh inning. During the game, I posited that the White Sox should really keep Borchard ahead of a Pablo Ozuna type. The Florida Marlins need outfielders too bad for the White Sox to be flirting with Borchard's future. Turns out the Marlins are interested. Borchard struck out in his last at-bat, unsurprisingly, but if he gets 500 AB in Miami, the outcome could be better than we think.

  • Ozzie had Brian Anderson in the leadoff spot, and it just did not fit. In three at-bats, Anderson saw a total of eight pitches, never coming particularly close to a hit. On the opposite side, he looked great in the field, reading balls well and making a great catch (a la Aaron Rowand) running into the centerfield wall. Bad offense and good defense isn't what the scouting reports read on Anderson. The White Sox are hoping for average offense and good defense. I'm not buying any preseason support he's receiving for AL Rookie of the Year.

    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Seen: 6-7 loss to Cubs

  • Let's start with the only other player I saw from the week that could have underlying injury troubles: Vladimir Guerrero. The former MVP looked really bad in this game, reaching base once in three at-bats via a hit by pitch off his foot. Guerrero, a guess hitter prone to looking bad, looked really bad thanks to a few Rich Hill curves. However, this was not retro Vlad as he failed to ever have great timing, and he also looked hurt running around the bases.

    First-round picks in fantasy baseball are very important, and back problems have a history of lingering. Put these two together, and I suggest you pass on Vladimir Guerrero in the first round of your draft. Let someone else make that mistake.

  • Juan Rivera is an interesting player. At the plate he looked fantastic, collecting an RBI in each of his first two at-bats. He does not have a lot of patience at the plate, but he seems to be a solid contact hitter. In the field however, Rivera is awful. He reminded me of vintage Carlos Lee in left, taking disastrous routes to a Todd Walker double. Rivera then dropped the ball when going to throw out Matt Murton later. Rivera has the potential to be a good player at the Major League level, but to do so he will have to make up for being in the red defensively.

  • Mike Napoli impressed me for the second straight year. In his one at-bat, Napoli homered to left field. His approach at the plate and his subsequent home run led me to believe that Napoli is a big-time pull hitter. This would seem to be the reason why he strikes out a lot, but also indicate why his power is so great. Jeff Mathis had two hits in the game and looked ready for the season, but the Angels shouldn't be placing him on a pedestal above Napoli. In 2007, I hope the two have a chance to battle evenly for the catching position.

  • The Angels entered the ninth inning with a very imposing three against Scott Williamson: Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales. The outcome was unimpressive (1-2-3 inning), but it provided a nice glimpse of the future. Kendrick didn't do anything of note, neither did Morales, though he looks stronger than a year ago. Kendry looked foolish on a low and away pitch, but if he solves the holes in his swing, has the swagger of a big league player. Aybar seemed to equal his scouting report, showing a cannon from shortstop and some rawness to his game. After drawing a sixth inning walk, Erick had a horrible jump on a stolen base attempt and was thrown out. His speed is an asset, his baserunning has never been.

    Seattle Mariners

    Seen: 4-2 win vs. Cubs

  • This comes as no surprise to Mariners fans, but outside of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, power could be an issue to this team. Sexson hit a home run, and while the team hit three doubles besides that, no one looked to have anything other than gap power. This team sacrifices power from its RF-slot for Ichiro, but makes it up nowhere else. Carl Everett, Raul Ibanez, Jeremy Reed are all good, smart hitters, but none will provide this team with a big power boost. This will be the downfall of their offense, and inevitably, their chances in 2006.

  • Before long, Yuniesky Betancourt could be the most fun player to watch in the game. He will never be a good hitter, striking out twice, but his first inning double showed the promise of an average one. In the field, it seems as though everything makes sense to him. The one ball hit to me was an easily converted 6-4-3 double play, but it were the other plays that led me to this conclusion. On one single up the middle, Betancourt almost reached a ball that was right of the second base bag. It looks as though the Cuban gets reads off the bat that few players every generation do. Pray his offense doesn't lead to a bench career.

  • I just don't see an offensive talent in Jeremy Reed. I have been in the seller's corner for most of his career, and this game did nothing to sway my opinion. In the sixth inning, Reed looked great, doubling to center and almost legging out an error-ridden inside the park homer. In his other four at-bats, Reed grounded out four times. A quick look at Studes' charts shows that last year, Reed grounded out 4% more than the average hitter. This weakness must be rectified by a hitting coach, because Jeremy does have potential when the ball gets in the air. Until I see that happen a little more often, I will continue to yawn in Reed's direction.

  • Another flaw on this team is a problem with depth. Any reader of U.S.S. Mariner will know the organization has long-term experience with having an awful bench. This year should be no exception. The game did allow me an up-close view into the battle for the Mariners bench spot: Greg Dobbs vs. Mike Morse vs. Cody Ransom vs. Roberto Petagine. Thrilling. Petagine looked awful before singling in his one at-bat, but Dobbs and Ransom were worse. Morse should win the competition, but expectations should be pretty low. If he can play better in left this year, and maybe pick up third base, a career on the bench isn't too far-fetched.

    Kansas City Royals

    Seen: 8-4 win vs. Brewers

  • For what it's worth, I am warming to the Royals idea of bringing in some veterans this year. I still think they overdid it, but I did see some semblance of a baseball team on the field. One reason is Reggie Sanders, one of the most positive influences in baseball. The outfield veteran reached base in each of his four plate appearances, including three singles. The man knows how to hit.

    The other reason is that the KC defense should be much, much better this year. This was evident at the end of the second inning, when a Corey Koskie would-be-single up the middle was snared by Mark Grudzielanek and then thrown to Doug Mientkiewicz, who made a fantastic swoop. With Angel Berroa and Mark Teahen on the left side, this infield will be very good. Royals pitchers might benefit if their numbers were better, and this infield has that potential.

  • Denny Bautista looked better than his numbers indicated. His boxscore reads just three strikeouts and two earned runs in five innings. A good start, respectable, but far from great. Watching him from the stands, however, I think Bautista looked very solid. The skinny right-hander threw a total of just 54 pitches in five innings, pitching for contact more than I had seen him do in the past. His fastball was 94-97 mph on the park's radar gun, and he pitched off that. While that was impressive, his breaking pitch obviously needed work. Solid at 86-88 mph, the slider was just not breaking late, resuling in a lot of high misses. Once that gets tightened up, Bautista could be in for a solid season.

    Still, after watching him struggle a bit in the fifth, I have to wonder if Bautista would just be better in the bullpen. Trying this out, however, is a luxury the Royals cannot afford.

  • The world's deepest fantasy league should notice John Buck is an ultra, super sleeper. After hitting .321/.341/.556 in September last year, Buck reached base in his three at-bats in this game. Buck actually doubled twice, showing power that he hadn't really displayed since the minors. He did hit four home runs in the final month last year, so it's possible that Buck has a 20 HR season in him. It's also possible he's merely a platoon player.

    Tomorrow I will be back with the National League teams on the trip. Feel free to leave any spring impressions of your own below.

  • WTNYMarch 15, 2006
    Virtual Reality
    By Matt Jacovina

    Editor's Note: Bryan is off in Arizona this week catching some Spring Training games, so he recruited someone to take his spot in the weekly rotation. Matt Jacovina, from Warm October Nights, is in to write a fun minor league piece that we're sure answers all your dreams.

    Most every profession, hobby or scene has a time of year when all devoted effort comes to fruition during a glorious, celebratory finale. For politicians, it occurs in early November on Election Day. Model railroad lovers get their week in the spotlight at the NMRC. Teenage girls aspiring to show as much of their midriff as possible, meanwhile, gather and indulge in their style of dress whenever Lindsay Lohan plays a show at a nearby venue.

    Prospect mavens are no different and every off-season treat themselves to a nice helping of lists. Top 10 prospects for each team, top prospects at individual positions, and, of course, top 100 overall lists. It's a satisfying ending to a long season of pondering whether Hanley Ramirez is overrated or if Carlos Quentin being hit by a few dozen pitches a season puts him at a higher injury risk.

    As a fan, all seems fine. Lists may not be the most sophisticated tool for prospect analysis, but you don't care since they're just so delightful. But each year a sudden surprise comes from the inclusion of a few new names. Alex Gordon is cool; you've seen his college stat line, and wow. You've probably even seen him on television. Jay Bruce? Okay. You can appreciate 5-tool high school talent in conjunction with a small sample size of professional at-bats being ranked towards the back of a top 100 list.

    But wait. You've made it to the top of the list, with only the very elite left to be ordered, and there's a high school draftee with no professional at-bats ranking near the pinnacle of baseball players unable to rent cars: Justin Upton. You know his big brother well and have heard that the talent level is similar, but seeing your longest running source position him above AA-tested favorites like Jeremy Hermida and the golden-armed Francisco Liriano is simultaneously frustrating and tantalizing. You don't doubt his talent, but watching his brief scouting video over and over doesn't give much of a glimpse into his future. Like Jason Giambi, should the Yankees ever attempt to bunt him over to third base, you're in a pickle.

    In order to resolve such problems with the uncertain, EA Sports has produced a tool capable of creating an alternate reality where Justin Upton, instead of taking the big bucks and a chance to play professional baseball, attends college, where we'd all be given the opportunity to see what he could do with an aluminum bat. Surely after three years of development in the public eye we'd have a better handle on why he's considered one of the greatest young talents in baseball.

    There are tons of caveats for regarding this as more than a for-fun, "what if?" scenario including: the subjectivity of creating Justin Upton. I tried to be as thoughtful as possible in assigning his abilities, utilizing heavily both B.J. Upton's minor league statistics and his tendency settings from MVP Baseball 2005, scouting reports, comparisons to many other players in the game from Ryan Zimmerman to Chad Flack, and Google's image search for the finishing touches. The other obvious problem is that we're talking about a video game which is intended to excel in game play, not used as an accurate simulation engine. Also, the rosters for the 2006 season are oddly composed of 2005 players, and incoming freshman are computer generated, meaning the type of competition he'd have faced in real life is different from in the game. But, hey, it's something to pass the time until the season begins.

    The following are the yearly chronicles of Upton's journey through college, playing baseball for the North Carolina State Wolfpack. I'm assuming his digital counterpart also learned a few things along the way, and possibly even created a trendy Facebook page, but no such reports were available. Maybe in next year's game.

    2006

    After turning down a potentially record setting signing bonus with the Arizona Diamondbacks in order to pursue a college education -- or perhaps as a means of rebellion against simply following in the footsteps of brother Bossman -- all eyes were on Justin. Stephen Drew's big freshman year was the comparison point most journalists came up with; it sounds like a lot of pressure, but next to the claims of him being the next Ken Griffey Jr., it wasn't so bad. Upton's college career began February 11th, and his first at-bat was a nice summary of his skills: he hit a ball hard into the gap, yet was able to stretch it out into a triple thanks to his incredible speed. Overall, however, February and most of March was rather quiet for Justin and the Wolfpack: Upton's average stayed comfortably above .300, but with the team losing, it was hard to not be slightly unenthused about his debut. Realists kept things in perspective, though, reminding that he was a freshman hitting like a legitimate college cleanup hitter.

    Starting late March, Upton stepped up his game and looked more comfortable at the plate. His strikeouts dipped while his walks increased and his power was becoming more apparent. In early May, during a weekend series against UNC, he held his own against Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard, drawing two walks with a knock against Miller, and getting a base hit and eventually scoring the game's only run against Bard. After struggling when facing Cesar Carillo in April, it was comforting to see him hold his own against top-notch hurlers. At the end of the regular season, he was named the 2nd best shortstop in the ACC behind Tyler Greene.

    Going into the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack had something to prove, after struggling through the first two months of the year. Thanks to the offensive explosions of Upton and first baseman Aaron Bates, they accomplished their goal and took home the tournament championship. In the deciding game, Upton went 4-for-5 with a home run, 4 runs and 7 RBI's. Yeah, yeah, aluminum bats, but that sort of performance is impressive even in a wiffle ball game. Unfortunately, the NCAA regionals didn't go as well, and in the third game, NC State was eliminated by the University of Central Florida, despite Upton taking Mike Billek deep for a three run shot.

    Justin's final line for the season was .372/.445/.616, with 47 strikeouts against 32 walks, 11 home runs, 16 doubles, 6 triples, and a disappointing 11 stolen bases to 5 caught stealings. For the more traditional, he had 48 RBI's and 52 runs. Pessimists pointed out that he fell short of Stephen Drew's freshman campaign where he hit .402/.457/.750, but everyone else was very impressed by his maturity at the plate. More importantly, he appeared to be getting better as the season went on, a sign that he was quickly adjusting to pitching considerably more advanced than he faced in high school. A sophomore slump looked about as likely as Justin deciding to forsake baseball altogether.

    2007

    Justin Upton was always a strong kid -- even bigger than B.J. at the same age -- but he didn't let contentment get the best of him, adding even more muscle to start the 2007 college season. February was an unusual month for NC State, as the offense was rather quiet while the pitching carried the team. The consistently low scoring games didn't correlate with Upton's performance, however: he only hit two round trippers, but opposing pitchers couldn't get him out, and his batting average hovered around .500 for the month, in which he walked more than he struck out. March brought more of the same, although he did endure a brief slump. Yes, apparently he is mortal.

    April proved to be Justin's best month since joining the diverse ranks of hopeful writers, scientists and binge drinkers in college. This particular burst of brilliance made it clear why he had been considered the best amateur in the game before the 2005 draft. Towards the end of the month, it was near impossible to get him out; his improving plate discipline made it difficult to strike him out, and anything over the plate was fair game to be crushed. To top it off, in the beginning of May against the eventual player of the year, Max Scherzer, Upton was able to accomplish the rare feat of taking him yard, although the Wolfpack still lost the game to #1 ranked Missouri 3-2.

    NC State was eliminated quickly from the ACC tournament, but lead by Upton's seemingly unstoppable bat, they pummeled the competition in the regionals and super regionals. The College World Series, Justin's biggest stage yet, began with the best game of his career: 6-for-6 with 2 home runs in a 13-7 victory against Rutgers. He put in another fine performance in a blowout against Notre Dame, going 3-for-5 during an 11-0 victory. Unfortunately, the Wolfpack could only split the next two games against the Irish, and were then beat twice by Georgia Tech, ending their underdog run at the title.

    Glory in Omaha was narrowly missed, but that didn't deter from Upton's dazzling season. His batting line almost requires a second glance to make sure it doesn't accidentally contain his OPS instead of another statistic: .430/.514/.733, in 73 games, with 17 of his extra base hits being home runs. He was named first team All-American at shortstop, and was a runner-up to Scherzer for player of the year. Such a high batting average may seem like an aberration in many cases, but it shouldn't be too surprising after arming Justin with an aluminum bat, considering his astounding bat speed and pitch recognition. Not even the harshest of critics had anything negative to say about Upton's year; his talent was major league ready as just a second-year college student.

    2008

    With excitement very high for a repeat of 2007, February brought a bit of disappointment to baseball fans when Justin bruised his ribs in the first game of the season and sat out for a week to be sure he was fully healed. The Wolfpack struggled even after his return, thanks to much of the team's talent leaving via the 2007 draft. Upton was slow in heating up after returning, and didn't look like himself at the plate until late March, when both he and NC State began to pick up steam. By the end of April, Justin was hitting everything thrown to him and looked just as impressive as ever.

    May was another impossibly good month for the young slugger, and he raised his average back to the suddenly standard .430 range. Pitchers could only take solace in knowing he'd soon be drafted and finally have to face competition that actually had the ability to get him out. The ACC tournament was a bust for the Wolfpack, who were eliminated after two games. In the first game of the regionals, Justin Upton helped his team to an 8-4 victory over Southern University with his two bombs. In an anticlimactic end to his college career, the Wolfpack dropped the next two games, and didn't qualify for the super regionals. That didn't take away from Upton's tremendous season, of course. His final line was .436/.508/.718 in 60 games, with 15 home runs, 3 triples and 15 doubles. Considering his slow start, his finale was even more striking.

    Though he entered college as a polished hitter, Upton's contact rate (as well as power) increased with experience. Combining his upside with performance, he'd almost certainly have been the #1 overall pick if the game allowed players to be drafted during their junior year. Unless maybe a cheap team had the first pick and digital Scott Boras was his agent. In the end, Justin Upton did enough to be remembered as having among the strongest three year careers for a shortstop in college history.

    Overview

    After seeing a few Justin Upton at-bats this spring, I don't think this simulation is too optimistic despite being very impressive. His incredible tools have already begun producing baseball skills, and they certainly justify the high ranks he's been receiving on prospect lists. A college career similar to this one is far from outside his abilities. Incredible bat and leg speed and a comfortable approach at the plate highlight his status as an elite prospect. Defense is much more difficult to judge, although his great speed and strong arm will ensure that the Diamondbacks find somewhere for him to play. One oddity about his video game counterpart was low stealing percentages, which I don't think will have any correlation with real life performances: his speed should produce a lot of stolen bases against minor league catchers.

    So, were some Justin Upton rankings aggressive? Absolutely. But he's the type of youngster who deserves the hype, for better or worse. One of the most riveting stories in minor league baseball for the year will be his transition to professional pitching. It's a safe bet that he'll excel at times, but the extent of his success is the type of unknown that makes the prospect scene so exciting in the first place.

    Matt has been writing about the minor leagues at his blog, Warm October Nights, since last July. He can be reached by clicking here.

    WTNYMarch 13, 2006
    Classic in the Making
    By Bryan Smith
    "...this will be huge. There's no doubt in my mind, the more I watch it. There are so many good subplots here, so much going on. So far it's maybe been better than I thought. I admit I went in believing it would be good, but this has really, really been good."

    -- Bud Selig

    When it's all said and done, a history lesson on Selig's tenure as commissioner will reveal a very rocky road. Selig is infamous for his blemishes, still hated in so many circles for the 1994 strike among other problems. Yet his influence on the game has also resulted in numerous positives; his legacy is more positive than many of us can admit.

    I'm willing to say that in a few years, Selig's most substantial imprint on the game will be his ability to instill March Madness into the national pastime. As we spend Monday filling out our brackets and arranging office pools, it is as good a time as ever to review how we have reached the new Elite Eight.

    The second round began on Sunday as all eight teams played, beginning to shed light upon which teams will be advancing to the Final Four. Korea won a well-fought pitching battle 2-1 over Mexico thanks to a (who else?) Seung Yeop-Lee first inning home run. Puerto Rico is the only other squad still undefeated, as the team capitalized on mistakes by the Dominican Republic to win 7-1. These teams are, realistically, just one win from the Final Four.

    After those two, many would agree the next two talented are the United States and the D.R. The Americans wake-up call came early in the tournament, and the team has played much better since losing to Canada. If the American starters can work 4-5 innings, few teams are more difficult to score against in the late innings. With a win over Korea today, one has to believe the Americans will advance to San Diego.

    The most dramatic game of the tournament should be at 2 p.m. eastern today, as the 3-1 Cubans take on the Dominican Republic players with the same record. One has to favor the loaded Dominican lineup in the match-up, but the lack of a deep pitching staff could come back to hurt them. The subplots that this game will, without doubt, produce are exactly what Selig was talking about in the opening quote.

    Officially, though I'm hardly going out on a limb, my (current) Final Four prediction is the United States, Korea, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Cuba is really the only bracket buster left, barring a dramatic Mexican finish.

    With Monday set to be the most exciting day yet in the tournament, here are a few notes I have had thus far...

  • The first question statheads will likely have after this tournament's completion is whether successful participants are more likely to continue playing well early in the season. If true, fantasy owners should be pushing up the likes of Adrian Beltre, Ken Griffey Jr., Carlos Beltran and Derrek Lee on their draft boards. All have been fantastic thus far.

    Furthermore, if the Twins had any question whether Francisco Liriano was ready for the Major Leagues, his tournament thus far should answer such qualms. The Dominican southpaw has struck out six batters and showcased the power arsenal that led to such a dominant 2005 season. Finally, for those that doubted the resumes of Jae Seo, Javier Vazquez or Bartolo Colon, their tournaments should change your mind. Seo in Dodger Stadium is particularly intriguing.

  • In the category of 'Surprising Breakouts,' the first name that must be mentioned is Adam Stern. The Canadian that famously led to their upset over the Americans was sensational in the nine at-bats he was given. I still doubt that Stern is good enough to succeed over 500 Major League ABs, but this tournament certainly didn't calm the fears of Red Sox fans who wish Andy Marte was still in Fort Myers.

    No bandwagon has gained in size during this tournament like Chan Ho Park, the sudden tournament leader in saves. The Korean has allowed just one hit while striking out five in three innings, surely making the Padres consider alternate roles for Park. With Akinori Otsuka out of town, the bullpen is a little more thin in San Diego, and Chan Ho could (shockingly) be the answer to such problems.

  • Tournament jeers thus far most notably go to Carlos Lee. The most talented player on the Panaman roster had a horrendous tournament, hitting just .182. Personally, I will always remember Lee striking out in the bottom of the ninth (with the bases loaded) against Cuba, when his team was just a sacrifice fly from an upset. Cuba not making the Elite Eight would have been the shock of the tournament.

    Instead, those honors went to the Canadians, who beat up on the fearsome American threesome of Willis, Al Leiter and Gary Majewski. I was most frustrated with Willis, who looked awful despite facing a lineup with EIGHT left-handers. Given every chance to succeed, Willis failed, which certainly can't put Larry Beinfest -- whom is centering his rebuilding around Willis and Miguel Cabrera -- at ease.

  • The WBC MVP thus far is Lee, who currently has two game-winning home runs, and four overall to his name. The powerful Korean first baseman has been to two Spring Trainings in America, never catching onto an American roster. He has played poorly in Japan for each of the last two seasons, however, posting OBPs of .328 and .315, respectively. His power seems to be his most substantial strength, and in the end, it might make Lee a few extra million.

  • My favorite Far East player so far is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Japanese second baseman. After reaching base three times against the U.S. on Sunday, Nishioka kept his tournament average at .500 while his OBP crept towards .600. His mix of patience (4 walks against 14 at-bats), speed (4/5 on the basepaths) and a bit of power (1 triple, 1 home run) has surely raised a few heads.

    Thanks to Japanese Baseball, we can identify Nishioka as a very good prospect. 2006 will be the switch-hitter's age 21 season, as well as his third with the Chiba Lotte Marines, after having become their number one draft pick. His numbers so far -- which average out to about .263/.315/.395 in two years -- aren't great, but bear in mind his fantastic fielding (.994 F%) and speed (41 steals).

    His numbers bear a lot of resemblance to those of Tadahito Iguchi when the White Sox second baseman was five years older. Any maturity at the plate -- and the WBC indicates it is coming -- should make Nishioka as anticipated as any Japanese player in the next five years.

  • Finally, I want to close things out with a few noteworthy performances from the least noteworthy teams. One of the tournament's most impressive pitchers was Italy's Jason Grilli, who allowed just one baserunner against 7 strikeouts in just 4.2 innings. The former fourth overall pick was in danger of becoming a Triple-A All-Star prior to his performance, but left likely garnering a little more interest from the pitching-hungry Detroit Tigers.

    In the coming weeks, I promise to release another set of breakout prospects to supplement my article already posted at Baseball Prospectus. However, one of the players I'm already on record for backing -- Brad Harman -- was the Australian shortstop in the WBC. He left the team's best hitter, which I'm hoping translates to a big sophomore season in the minor leagues.

    I'm off to Arizona this week in what is becoming an annual tradition. With four or five games in tap for four days, I promise to have a full report next week. While I'm gone, please spend your time watching the World Baseball Classic. Whether you hate to do so or not, do your part in making Bud Selig look like a genius.

  • WTNYMarch 07, 2006
    Avoiding Deep Valleys
    By Bryan Smith

    Back in the days of Jon Rauch, the Chicago White Sox were generally thought to have the best farm system in baseball. In the same time period, the Houston Astros were flush in minor league talent. The Seattle Mariners had a slew of young arms, most notably Ryan Anderson, that gave their farm system much clout.

    More than anything else, this memory should remind us that minor league talent is a cyclical trait among organizations. Asking any scouting department or development staff to consistently rate among the league's best is very tough. While we generally think highly of teams like the Braves and Twins for developing youth well, even these organizations have had their valleys in terms of young talent.

    Currently, organizations like the Dodgers, Angels and Diamondbacks are (deservedly) considered the best in the Major Leagues. However, this is unlikely to be true five years from now, as even Logan White cannot keep consistently drafting with such precision. Part of having a farm system is accepting the dozens of busts that will come along the way. Simply put, don't expect the Angels to be so loaded once the current class shows its true colors.

    This has happened in Cleveland, where much of the players that formerly made up one of the best systems in baseball have graduated. Victor Martinez at catcher, Hafner at DH, Peralta at short, Sizemore in center, Cliff Lee on the mound, Brandon Phillips' prospect status in shambles. All of these players made up a great system of yesteryear.

    Now, however, the Indians don't possess such minor league talent. This is not meant to be damning to an Indians front office that was so influential in building the current crop of young players, for many of the reasons listed above. Thanks to busted (yes, probably too early to use that term) first-round picks like Michael Aubrey and Jeremy Guthrie, the Indians are caught in a bit of a valley. Just three Indians -- including the newly acquired Andy Marte -- were among my top 100 prospects. Baseball America is no different.

    As a result of this newfound pessimism in the farm system, I wanted to use a magnifying glass to look at a solid, if not superbly top-heavy, farm system in a forward thinking organization. New Baseball Prospectus columnist Kevin Goldstein -- a long-time friend of mine that deserves congratulations for his new role -- beat me to the punch here, so I merely mean to expand upon his overview.

    I mentioned above that three players were on both mine and Baseball America's top 100, and the three undoubtedly are the jewels of the organization: Andy Marte, Adam Miller and Jeremy Sowers. Marte is certainly a cut above the other two, and should be the Indians third baseman prior to the All-Star Break. I've mentioned that he has Paul Konerko (or better) potential at the plate, and at the very least should be a steady, solid player. Sowers and Miller are interchangeable in the 2 and 3 slots, depending upon whether you want someone with potential (Miller) or a sure bet (Sowers).

    As we mentioned in our AL Central Preview at this site, Sowers should be among (with Marte) the first call-ups the Indians make in 2006. His quick rise up the farm system is enviable, and he has all the makings of a solid #3 starter. I fell in love with Miller prior to his arm injuries last year, but have backed off since seeing a lot of inconsistency when he returned. His arm has ace potential, and as a result, I feel he's a bit overrated at this point. Mark Shapiro has stated he wants to land a big name via trade during the season, and if it means parting with Miller, the Indians should probably consider it.

    Predictably, this is where disagreements between myself and Baseball America start to increase. The second tier of the Indians, those that garnered consideration for my list, has just three names: Fernando Cabrera, Ryan Garko and Chuck Lofgren. Cabrera has the potential to be a dominant reliever at the next level, and is so close that it's a good bet he'll make some sort of a difference. Garko is just as close, and should be up midseason as another bat in the mediocre (besides Hafner) 1B/DH logjam that the Indians have built up.

    Lofgren is the anomaly, the player Baseball America did not rank in their top ten, but whom I would give the six slot in the organization. I will talk about him more in the coming weeks -- in a future expansion upon my breakout prospects of 2006 -- but needless to say, there is a lot to like. He showed a lot of potential last year, and given his insane athleticism and increasing pitchability, there is a lot of upside.

    After this there is a lot of gray area, when we see a world where prospects with significant flaws bleed through. Franklin Gutierrez gets the nod for seventh on my list, a former top prospect with a bad season. In his series analyzing the minor leagues through PECOTA, Nate Silver had a good reference to Gutierrez, trying to downplay the off year that the talented player had. Gutierrez still has a ton of potential, and given his wide array of skills, has downside as a solid fourth outfielder capable of all three spots.

    It's nearly impossible to rank the next four slots, all hitters (alphabetically): Michael Aubrey, Trevor Crowe, Stephen Head, Brad Snyder. Crowe probably gets my nod, as he's higher thought of coming out of college than Snyder and Head were, and doesn't have the injury history that Aubrey does. In a close battle, Stephen Head would come next, as I think he has more upside than Brad Snyder. The latter I think is a greatly flawed prospect, a tweener with bad contact skills and an unknown amount of power. Shipping out him on a high note would be a good idea.

    After Aubrey in the eleventh spot come a host of pitchers, where you would also need a spot for John Drennen to be thrown in. The pitchers: Tony Sipp, Andrew Brown, Rafael Perez, Cody Bunkelman, J.D. Martin. I like Sipp the best, who is probably the one who I can say right now is probably not a future reliever. Brown and Perez almost definitely are, and Martin and Bunkelman are question marks. Sipp has a lot of potential for success, and would rank twelfth on my list.

    If nothing else, this is an extremely deep system with hosts of flawed prospects. The remaining pitchers all offer something I like, but mix it with a lot of reason to not believe they will succeed: Fausto Carmona, Nick Pesco, Sean Smith, Bear Bay, Dan Denham, Justin Hoyman. Of this group, I actually like Smith the best (who BA did not include in their top 30, apparently), a sleeper with a lot of potential as a future reliever. As far as the hitters go, Rule 5 options Jason Cooper, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Ryan Mulhern all have flaws that outweigh the slugging strengths they bring to the table.

    Getting into the business of team prospect lists is dangerous, and a prospect I want to generally avoid. However, here is how I would capture my top 15 Indians prospects:

    1. Andy Marte - 3B
    2. Jeremy Sowers - LHP
    3. Adam Miller - RHP
    4. Fernando Cabrera - RHP
    5. Ryan Garko - DH
    6. Chuck Lofgren - LHP
    7. Franklin Gutierrez - OF
    8. Trevor Crowe - OF
    9. Stephen Head - 1B/OF
    10. Brad Snyder - OF
    11. Michael Aubrey - 1B
    12. Tony Sipp - LHP
    13. John Drennen - OF
    14. Andrew Brown - RHP
    15. Cody Bunkelman - RHP
    Deep Sleeper: Sean Smith - RHP

    The above prospect list is nothing that you will see teams drooling over, or even, envying. This won't earn the Indian staff any awards, and doesn't create a lot of buzz for sustained future success. But as I've tried to prove today, while Cleveland isn't quite as flush in talent as they once were, there are a lot of things to like in this system. For teams that can't fix all their holes by spending seven figures, having a host of players with certain, specific skills is a good thing.

    It will be a few years before the Indians are again atop organizational rankings. These things are cyclical. And it helps, of course, to have a staff that even in down years, produces a lot to be proud of.

    WTNYMarch 03, 2006
    Shifting Gears
    By Bryan Smith

    There are few surer signs of spring each year than the annual decision to change a prospect's position. Thanks to the defensive spectrum, organizations often leave prospects in one spot for too long, and when making the Major Leagues becomes a reality, they need a check on their defense. In another scenario, changing positions can enhance a player's value, as his athleticism might better suit the system. Anyway, this happens each year, and it certainly bears watching.

    In the last week, two of my top 100 prospects were announced to have changed positions. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers finally started to move Joel Guzman, pushing the tall, future slugger to left field. The other player with a brand new glove this March has been Wes Bankston, the Devil Rays athletic former first baseman, who Tampa Bay has decided to give a chance at the hot corner during spring. Whether you like these decisions or not -- and it's hard not to in both cases -- there is no question that above all else, it shows that two new front offices are creating long-term plans.

    In the case of the Devil Rays, this position change is more important for who is staying put. By moving Bankston to third base, Andy Friedman made the B.J. Upton decision that had been hanging over the organization's head. With a crowded outfield and athleticism through the roof, I believe this was the right choice by Tampa, even if Upton is never anything near a positive in the field. However, here's to hoping Tampa doesn't just change its mind by April when they realize how difficult moving up the defensive spectrum is. As athletic as Wes Bankston may be, it's very unlikely he will be a good third baseman.

    Fantasy owners should be investing in Upton with late-round picks, as the future shortstop should provide very good value in the stolen base category, while holding significant upside in terms of home runs and even batting average and RBI. It's odd, but with their best lineup yet, the Devil Rays actually have multiple players that could post big RBI totals. By midseason this team will really be fun to watch, as this lineup will be thrown on the field everyday:

    C - Toby Hall
    1B - Wes Bankston (didn't Austin Kearns try this same thing?)
    2B - Jorge Cantu
    SS - B.J. Upton
    3B - Yuck: Burroughs, Wigginton, Branyan
    LF - Carl Crawford
    CF - Rocco Baldelli
    RF - Delmon Young
    DH - Jonny Gomes

    You will notice this isn't exactly the list you had been anticipating if you followed the Devil Rays roster construction. However, the lack of Aubrey Huff, Julio Lugo and Joey Gathright from this list is intentional, as I think Friedman needs to continue to show the long-term plan by making a few deals. With good starts, both Huff and Lugo should be able to bring in big pieces during the season. And I also truly hope that if the Marlins are offering anything close to what has been rumored for Gathright, that Friedman has tried to accept. Gathright is fine, but he's a far cry from Scott Olsen.

    Furthermore, this is a team in desperate need of pitching. While Rich's recent metrics have shown that Scott Kazmir possesses a lot of upside, he's the only Devil Ray starter with long-term value. Jeff Niemann is a good prospect, Hammel is a good bet for a back-end starter and Wade Davis is everyone's favorite breakout candidate. Both Chuck Tiffany and Edwin Jackson were acquired for 75 cents on the dollar, and sooner or later, Wade Townsend might be healthy again. Finally, the team also is months from landing either Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, or another arm that this draft is so full of. However, it's still not enough. Tampa needs to follow their Floridian mates, the Marlins, and simply stockpile pitchers one on top of the other.

    Few teams present better scenarios for armchair GMs than the Devil Rays, who appear to have so much upside. However, let's be honest, the way the divisions are currently aligned, it's possible this team is destined to be a let down. As good as that future lineup sounds, $100 million sounds good, too. Tampa has become one of my favorite organizations since I started following prospects, but there has to be a concern in Tampa that Major League Baseball has set them up to fail. For those of you keeping score at home, that's now 2 organizations (Colorado, too) for which this fact is true.

    As for the Dodgers, their position change doesn't answer a ton of questions, but it shows long-term faith in their third base prospects. With Bill Mueller in the Majors, Andy LaRoche on the horizon and Blake DeWitt holding so much breakout potential, the Dodgers have seemed set at third to most prospect evaluators for a year. However, with word that the team was going to move Guzman to the hot corner as well, it appeared that Dodger brass -- a group talented enough to build a farm system like this -- did not like LaRoche's long-term value. That no longer appears to be the case.

    While LaRoche has little chance to be a rookie before 2007, the Dodgers seem quite impressed by Guzman and Chad Billingsley. Could both surprise and add to the deep NL Rookie of the Year race? As good as Guzman was in a tough environment last year, I doubt it, as learning a new position and retaining the bat simultaneously is a tough thing to do. Furthermore, the team loses very little in starting Joel in Las Vegas, a place where Guzman's bat will have a hard time not gaining confidence. Next thing you know, this guy could be Jeff Francoeur, version 2006.

    As for Billingsley, I think the time could very well be now according to reports of his stuff this spring. Vegas is a horrendous place for pitchers, and Chad really seemed to turn a corner in AA after July last year. While I have bashed the roles created for players like Brandon McCarthy and Anthony Reyes, Billingsley would be fantastic starting the year in a long relief role to become acclimated to the Majors. Once consistency sets in, the team would move him back to the rotation, where it would appear replacing Jeff Weaver was an extremely easy task.

    March is a month light on hard news in baseball. And while the Guzman and Bankston position changes provided good copy for desperate beat reporters, it also shows a long-term plan is in place for two organizations that needed to show their fan bases just that.

    WTNYFebruary 28, 2006
    Top 20 2006 Sophomores
    By Bryan Smith

    With a graduation to the Major Leagues, prospects escape the realm of subjective opinion rankings. They then enter a world of objectivity, when rankings are based far more on numbers than eyes.

    Today, I'd like to take a select few Major Leaguers back to prospect lists. My first article for this site, one year ago, was ranking the top 20 sophomores of 2005. Data from the previous year, and PECOTA projections for the next five made it easier than my January rankings, but still far from perfect. As good as the top choice of David Wright looks good now, but the inclusions of Edwin Jackson, Alexis Rios and Chin-Hui Tsao do not.

    Twenty-nine players from my 2005 WTNY Top 100 (including honorable mention) - my real prospect list - were rookies last season. Far more other players, not on the list, were classified as first-year players. The point of today's piece is to gather together all these players and find the best twenty in terms of perceived career value. The list...

    1. Felix Hernandez - SP - Seattle Mariners

    Everyone familiar with King Felix has a mancrush on him. Everyone. But no one has been as outward with their feelings as Dave Cameron, and deservingly so, as Cameron brought Felix to our attention when he was pitching in the Northwest League. Within a guest column for this site, Cameron glowingly went through Hernandez' arsenal:

    Let's start with his four-seam fastball. At 96-98 mph, his velocity alone makes it extaordinarily hard to hit. This isn't a Matt Anderson "Hit Me" fastball. Throwing it with movement, it draws stares more often than not...

    If he bores of peppering the zone in the high-90s, he can easily switch to his two-seam fastball, the sinker that caused worms and gophers to leave the grounds of Safeco Field en masse. This pitch is nearly always thrown at the knees and, with late downward movement, it is a groundball machine...

    As good as his two high-velocity options can be, neither is his best pitch. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find a better pitch in baseball than the Royal Curveball. Thrown as a classic 12-to-6 over-the-top curve and coming in at 82-86 miles per hour, Felix's curve is the kind of breaking ball that makes batters wobble...

    And, just for fun, Felix also has a change-up that, on its own merits, is one of the best in the American League. A true straight change, he drops it in at around 84 mph, usually just below the knees of a batter who has already completed his swing by the time the ball actually gets to the plate.

    Felix has had success at every stop, including his stint in the Majors last year. Rich points out to me that Felix was sixth in the league last year in K/100P, a fantastic number for a player of his age. Really the only downside Hernandez possesses is a lot of potential for injury, which would certainly validate the Doc Gooden comparisons. More likely than not, he exceeds them, and should go toe-to-toe with Johan Santana for Cy Young contention for the next ten years.

    2. Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

    The problems are fairly obvious with Weeks. First of all, it's likely that Weeks will never be a good second baseman, perhaps always providing negative value in the field. At the plate, Weeks also has serious contact problems, and PECOTA sees an average that, by 2010, will never top .280. His strikeout numbers should usually be over 100. But PECOTA also sees a 30-40% chance that, in each of the next five years, Weeks is a superstar. Rickie has great power for a player up the middle, and his speed on the basepaths should make fantasy owners consistently happy. When accepting his faults, we should look at Weeks as the NL second base starter in the All-Star Game for years to come.

    3. Ryan Howard - 1B - Philadelphia Phillies

    PECOTA is a pessimistic forecasting system, which should come as no secret to many of you. What is shocking, on the other hand, is Ryan Howard's ninety-percentile projection: .331/.429/.750 with 61 home runs. Wow. His top ten comparables include accomplished sluggers Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder and Willie Stargell, among others. Howard might be the best bet to have success in 2006 at the plate, but he also provides very little value in the field or on the bases, and his ceiling isn't much higher. The Phillies will be glad they traded Jim Thome, but I will say right now that when Howard's arbitration time runs out in Philadelphia, he should not be brought back. Now that is looking into the future, ladies and gents.

    4. Brian McCann - C - Atlanta Braves

    When Johnny Estrada went down with injury last year, the Braves were very bold to bring McCann up to the majors. Brian performed very admirably during that time, handling the pitching staff well and peforming well at the plate. In fact, he may remind some (old) Braves fans of Joe Torre, who at the age of 21, hit a very similar .282/.355/.395. In the next four years, Torre built towards his peak, culminating in an age 25 season with a .943 OPS. McCann has better power than he showed last year, and if your fantasy league hasn't drafted yet, take my advice: make McCann (at the very least) your #2 catcher.

    5. Scott Kazmir - SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    There are two schools of thought in regard to Kazmir. The first side, the cynical one, thinks that Kazmir is a wild pitcher that will always be just that. His career can be good, but will not progress much further, as 70-80 walks per season prevents great success. Others think that control can be learned, and focus on numbers like Kazmir's 5.28 K/100P. Scott is a hot-and-cold pitcher that is very fun to watch, and his development is one thing that the new Tampa regime is banking on. If all they expect is a #2 starter, than there are far worse bets out there.

    6. Zach Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates

    Another weird PECOTA player. While the projection system likes the Bucs southpaw more than Kazmir for the next five years, it doesn't see a lot of upside: just a 5% breakout rate is given for the 2006 season. This seems about right, as Duke's solid start simply indicated that of a player with a low ceiling. He is a very smart pitcher who I was really impressed with after he carved through the Cubs, but his strikeout numbers will never be sensational. Look for this to always hold Duke back, who is just the player the Pirates covet for their ideal team. Good things are ahead in Zach's future, even despite an organization that lacks a great reputation.

    7. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B - Cincinnati Reds

    After using just two third baseman from 1996-2003 (Willie Greene, Aaron Boone), the Reds hoped Brandon Larson might take the job in 2004. When it became apparent that Larson was a bust, Edwin Encarnacion started to be hyped. For years, I thought he was undeserving of so much praise, a future solid player with limited upside. However, in each year, Encarnacion has improved, and he played very well in a Major League stint last season. While Andy Marte still is perceived to have more upside than Edwin, the gap has closed, and Encarnacion is on the cusp of providing the Reds with another long-term solution (and the best one of the group) at the hot corner.

    8. Huston Street - RP - Oakland Athletics

    We can sit here and penalize Street for being a closer, talking about how relievers simply don't stack up against players at other positions. Or we could sit here and say that, for a closer, Street's stuff doesn't exactly match up. We could say that he is a one-year wonder, a case of the fungibility of the reliever. But that would simply not give Street enough credit. A true competitor, Street has found a way to be successful in the most difficult baseball atmosphere in the world. His stuff is good enough, because his guts are unparalleled. He will go through some tough weeks, without a doubt, but Street is one fantastic player.

    9. Jeff Francoeur - OF - Atlanta Braves

    No one is more variable on the list than Francoeur. If I went by PECOTA, he wouldn't be this high, as the system doesn't see the Braves outfielder breaking the 4.0 WARP mark in any of the next five years. However, I'm also intrigued by his PECOTA comparables, which have Juan Gonzalez, Cal Ripken (?) and Sammy Sosa in the top five. In fact, there are even more All-Stars making up his top 20. Like Weeks, Francoeur has issues, and my guess is that he will be one of the Majors most hot-and-cold players in baseball for some time. But few people have a feel for the game than this kid, as evidenced by just how quick he became used to Major League pitching. His power still profiles to be prodigious, and when he's done, I think we will all have learned something about how to play right field.

    10. Brandon McCarthy - SP - Chicago White Sox

    McCarthy was simply a tale of two seasons. He struggled in his first trip to the Majors, in which I wrote, "Brandon will need to gain confidence in a third pitch, as his fastball doesn't seem to be fast enough, and his curveball has the tendency to hang early in the count." The club then sent him to the International League to work on his change, and when he returned with the pitch improved, the results were fantastic. Just eight earned runs in his final 42.2 innings for a sparkling 1.69 ERA, and oddly enough, a spot in the White Sox bullpen. However, as we talked about recently in our AL Central Preview, there is every expectation that McCarthy will get his starts this season, and by 2007, a full-time slot. Consistency in the change will determine how high his career can go.

    11. J.J. Hardy - SS - Milwaukee Brewers

    The offensive Daniel Cabrera, few players are gaining more pre-2006 breakout support than J.J. Hardy. One of those boosters is Analysts' own Rich Lederer, who wrote this long-term prognostication on the Brewers middle infielder:

    Longer term, Hardy profiles a bit like Chris Speier. He has a similar body type with medium speed, a good knowledge of the strike zone, and above-average power for a SS. Speier had better range than Hardy showed in his rookie year but was eventually hampered by a bad back despite enjoying a 19-year career in the majors. For what it's worth, the former Giant was one of the best players in the league during his second season.

    The cynical view of Hardy would be to say he is this year's Adam LaRoche, simply on the list because of a big second half. However, Rich has that angle covered, too:

    There are four points of interest [in Hardy's bad first half].

    1. Hardy walked more often than he struck out.

    2. He was putting the ball in play at a pretty good clip.

    3. His Batting Average on Balls In Play was a meager .211 (vs. a MLB norm of about .300). Give him a more normal BABIP and he would have hit .262 before the All-Star game rather than .187.

    4. The number of doubles-to-home runs was unusually high.

    I was never high on Hardy when ranking him as a prospect, going as far to compare him to Royce Clayton. I will gladly admit to being wrong, as Hardy is a fun player to watch that does everything right. Look for a solid 2006 to be the start of a wonderfully solid Major League career.

    12. Curtis Granderson - OF - Detroit Tigers

    Do the Tigers really appreciate what they have in Granderson? Are they really considering starting Nook Logan at centerfield this season? In 2004, Granderson broke out at one of the minors easiest stadiums to hit a home run in. His numbers were helped by an August that was disproportionate to the rest of his career. He was an anomaly, but this year, showed that his breakout was for real. Granderson might not be the next great Tiger, or even a consistent All-Star. But for a team like Detroit, that has been "rebuilding" for so long, he's the long-term answer at one position. PECOTA loves him, but I don't see enough power developing for a superstar to shine through.

    13. Casey Kotchman - 1B - Los Angeles Angels

    Talk about a player PECOTA doesn't like. Thanks to a few years littered with injuries, Major League ineffectiveness, and a lack of opportunity, Kotchman is not a player that is projected well. His top ten comparables are a sorry group, and his high for the next five years -- in terms of WARP -- is 2.6. However, it's a prediction system far from perfect, and in Kotchman's case, numbers don't tell the whole story. For years, Casey has drawn the same comparison: Mark Grace. His fielding has always been lauded, as have his contact skills. Some would say that Kotchman's power would eventually develop, and his offense at first would be way above-average. Others, not so much. At this point, I think Kotchman is -- for his career -- a 15-25 home run player. To be successful, he'll need an average upwards of .300. He can do it.

    14. Jeremy Reed - OF - Seattle Mariners

    If you think the White Sox defense is good now, try imagining a team with Chris Young in left, Aaron Rowand in center, and Jeremy Reed in right. Instead, Chicago was just too deep up the middle, and all three of these players will be in greener pastures in 2006. Reed will be the one of the group who plays in a drastic pitching park, so his play will be the hardest to judge. The one consensus coming from Seattle is that Reed is a great defender, which given their huge outfield is a big plus. But, he does play next to Ichiro, which must be taken into consideration. Offensively, he's probably got Mark Kotsay potential, which has become a compliment, if not a fantastic one. The star potential isn't there, but he can probably be everything that Granderson can, and like Curtis, is the right cog for the Mariners rebuild.

    15. Ervin Santana - SP - Los Angeles Angels

    I'm not sure we really appreciate what Santana has done here. Sure, Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey all had good 2005 seasons, and were more responsible for the Angels performance than Santana's. However, does anyone really believe that without Ervin, the Angels would have made the playoffs? For an October run, every team needs a player that steps up at the right time and replaces someone injured. That is what Santana did, and in effect, made Washburn's high price tag expendable this winter. Santana was on and off with his game last year, but had flashes of the lightning stuff that gained him notoriety in the minors. He's got a lot more bust potential than the names on this list, but he also could be really successful atop the Angel rotation.

    16. Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

    Both at Baseball Prospectus and BTF, Cano was given about a 10% chance to turn into Hall of Fame baseball player. This is because what he did last year was remarkable, stepping into baseball's largest stage and taking the spotlight off a position that has caused the Yanks so much grief. Cano is another player that I obviously underrated too much as a prospect, not taking his 100 RBI+ season into enough consideration. But, really, is Cano's ceiling much above his performance in 2005? Do we really see a player that even has the possibility to be better than Weeks? Not for me, at least, as I believe Cano will teeter-totter among being an average second baseman for as long as the Yanks let him.

    17. Joe Blanton - SP - Oakland Athletics

    I can say that, with certainty, Joe Blanton will be pitching in the Majors for a long time. He's just that type of player, a solid starter with good durability and good enough stuff to have lasting value to Major League organizations. However, he isn't the type of player that will cause other starters to skip outings to get to. Blanton has succeeded in going after hitters, taking an approach similar to that of Street's, above. He had nice results in 2005, and should continue to do so this year without really being a factor in fantasy baseball. He is a good player with a lot of WARP in his future, but when it's all said and done, it could be remarkable how anti-climatic his career was.

    18. Matt Murton - LF - Chicago Cubs

    As a Cub fan, this was a difficult ranking. I, in a way, wanted to give Murton something back after he had such a good 2005. This was a player that forced his way into Dusty Baker's offense, a trait we should all respect in a player. He came out strong and kept going, having a remarkable season in left field. However, he didn't show any power. Barely any trace of it. In fact, besides home run contests, Murton's career is full of seasons without power. This just isn't acceptable for a Major League corner outfielder. While Murton could survive on becoming a 40-50 doubles guy, even that would be a step up. It will be his power that determines whether this ranking was too low, or drastically too high.

    19. Nick Swisher and Dan Johnson - OF/1B - Oakland Athletics

    On a list that features Ryan Howard in the third spot, it's difficult to drop a few players' rankings thanks to lack of athleticism. In that regard, Howard takes the cake. However, Howard's power is enough to overcome that fault, which is something that neither of these A's can say. In fact, Swisher and Johnson don't have any traits that are fantastic, but enough tools needed for success. This is very similar to my comment on Blanton, and in fact, could be considered a bit on Oakland A's players in general. This team is filled with solid players, top to bottom, that will make them a competitive team on an annual basis. But a World Series team? I don't see it, as there aren't very many players that could have fantastic career years. This holds true for Swisher and Johnson, neither of whom will be taking a large step in 2006.

    20. Andy Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos - RP - Kansas City Royals
    These two names should not be surprising choices for long-time readers. As I have pointed out a few times, I predicted Burgos to breakout before the season. And that he did, going from the Midwest League to the Majors in admirable fashion, with a fantastic 6.05 K/100P peripheral. And as I have also pointed out, I did not think the Cubs decision to expose Sisco to the Rule 5 draft was a good decision. It wasn't, as Sisco started out strong on Opening Day and never looked back. PECOTA is not confident at all with its predictions of these two, as neither garners a similarity score over 15. However, I see the future of the Kansas City bullpen, which at this point, could be their one strength in the next few seasons.

    WTNYFebruary 27, 2006
    College Baseball Revisited
    By Bryan Smith

    In college baseball, rankings are obsolete nearly the minute they are compiled. Since the season is so short, with pitchers only having a limited number of outings each season, scouting directors don't have long to evaluate players. As a result, every weekend, draft boards are changed to reflect the weekend's happenings.

    With that being said, I was thrilled when Sports Illustrated approached me with the opportunity to write an article for their On Campus College Baseball Preview. My top 20 draft prospects article ran Friday, preceding yet another weekend that would go far in making me look dated. However, my heart and soul is poured into this article, as I researched, interviewed, and read in detail to prepare. My top 20:

    1. Andrew Miller - LH SP - North Carolina
    2. Max Scherzer - RH SP - Missouri
    3. Ian Kennedy - RH SP - USC
    4. Drew Stubbs - OF - Texas
    5. Daniel Bard - RH SP - North Carolina
    6. Matt LaPorta - 1B - Florida
    7. Dallas Buck - RH SP - Oregon State
    8. Wes Hodges - 3B - Georgia Tech
    9. Evan Longoria - IF - Long Beach State
    10. Joba Chamberlain - RH SP - Nebraska
    11. Jared Hughes - RH SP - Long Beach State
    12. Kyle McCulloch - RH SP - Texas
    13. Brandon Morrow - RH SP - California
    14. Blair Erickson - RH RP - UC Irvine
    15. Mark Hamilton - 1B - Tulane
    16. Brad Lincoln - P - Houston
    17. Mark Melancon - RH RP - Arizona
    18. Chad Tracy - C - Pepperdine
    19. Brennan Boesch - OF - California
    20. Matt Antonelli - 3B - Wake Forest

    This final ranking was decided on weeks ago, and even since, my draft board has been changed. Of note, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain and Brandon Morrow are the largest climbers. Longoria has continued to show the power he displayed over the summer, making him one of the top two hitters in the country. Chamberlain has zoomed right past Dallas Buck, especially since Baseball America reported his fastball hit 96 mph against NC State. Finally, Morrow is continuing to strike out batters at a torrid pace, though his six walks in six innings this past weekend are a cause for concern.

    I mentioned Buck as someone who has dropped, as even against Brigham Young on Thursday he has not turned the corner with a great outing. His 2005 was built on a great non-conference record, so Dallas really can't afford to start slow out of the gates. I have also been disappointed with Mark Hamilton, who has not shown the power out of the gate that I expected. It will come, and I still think my Ryan Klesko comp applies, but he has slipped a bit. And finally, in talks with Rich Lederer, I realized that Jared Hughes and Brad Lincoln should really swap places.

    Andrew Miller has not shifted at all, instead, he has only helped his status as the 'player to beat' atop draft boards. Miller has shown much improved control this season, walking only two batters through his first two starts. It also should be mentioned that in his Sunday start yesterday, there was only one out that Miller recorded that was not a groundball or strikeout. Yes, you should be drooling.

    In fact, North Carolina is a team worth talking about. My pick for the 2006 College World Series title has stormed out of the gates to an undefeated record, albeit to a fairly weak schedule. Yes, they started hot last year, coming out 9-0 to begin the year. However, during that 2005 spree, the offense was averaging just 6.4 runs per game. Flash forward to 2006, and UNC is 7-0, but has scored 84 runs for an average of 12 runs per game. While most of my focus is on juniors at this site, it should be noted that Josh Horton makes quite a strong case for being the first shortstop drafted in 2007.

    Speaking of 2007 hitters -- as offensive players will obviously be back on the map by then -- there has been no bigger story this year than NC State third baseman Matt Mangini. While the sample size police are surely on their way to arrest me, it is safe to say the best hitter in the country thus far (through 50 AB) has been Mangini. In a lineup that already features insane firepower from the likes of Aaron Bates and Jon Still, Mangini is hitting an insane .680/.730/1.080 this season. Not the most athletic player in the nation, Mangini will go as high in the draft as his bat takes him. Right now, that is pretty damn high.

    Another ACC team that impressed me this weekend was Wake Forest, where Mr. Irrelevant (number 20, above) Matt Antonelli plays third base. The Demon Deacons, in the past plagued by a lack of pitching, threw well enough to get upsets of Missouri and Florida en route to an undefeated weekend. Antonelli wasn't fantastic, but continues to impress me with his discipline-upside combination.

    Getting away from the top twenty, another noteworthy team -- and a surprising one at that -- has been Hawaii. The Rainbows entered the weekend 9-2, winning series over San Diego State, UC Irvine and Loyola Maramount before hosting USC this past weekend. The Trojans stumbled in Honolulu, dropping the first two games of the series before saving themselves from the sweep on Sunday. Hawaii is led by (a bit of a sleeper) in Friday night starter Steven Wright, another solid contributor from the Cape Cod League. In four starts already, Wright has pitched 29.2 innings, giving up just 15 hits and five walks while striking out 27 batters. He bears watching.

    While Wright didn't garner a lot of consideration for the top twenty, there are a lot of other players who did. As I generally do with rankings, below are my eleven honorable mentions (displayed alphabetically) for the top 2006 draft-eligible prospects:

    Chris Coghlan - 3B - Mississippi - Saber-friendly third baseman with limited upside.
    Colin Curtis - OF - Arizona State - Future leadoff hitter with every tool but power.
    Jason Donald - SS - Arizona - Good power, bad contact skills, shortstop. Decent package.
    Chris Errecart - 1B/OF - Cal - Started in Cape Cod League, continuing to show power.
    David Huff - LHP - UCLA - I fell in love with Huff last summer. I know why.
    Brian Jeroloman - C - Florida - Best pure college catcher in junior class.
    Tim Lincecum - SP - Washington - Do numbers speak louder than scouts?
    Chris Perez - RP - Miami - A step below other closers, but second round arm.
    Shane Robinson - OF - FSU - '05 Golden Spikes finalist does everything well.
    Josh Rodriguez - SS - Rice - Very good power, no patience up the middle.
    Brett Sinkbeil - SP - Missouri State - Cape Cod League guy with good live arm.

    Again, rankings are only as good as the date in which they are compiled. With each weekend as we inch closer to June, performances become more and more important. As was the case with Lance Broadway last year, a few dynamite starts in May can go a long way towards turning someone into a first round pick.

    This spring I will try to update my personal draft board often, trying to reflect the times when breakthrough performances happen. Thanks go out to Sports Illustrated for making me stick out my neck for the first time.

    WTNYFebruary 15, 2006
    Second in Line
    By Bryan Smith

    Shortstop prospects are held on a pedestal. Thanks to their high place on the defensive spectrum, good SS prospects are constantly being given the benefit of the doubt. Oftentimes, this creates an excess of hype, and ultimately, a bust.

    But, at the very least, these shortstops are given a shot. Their double play partners, however, are not always given the same star treatment. Second base prospects are never as sexy as those at short, and despite a year in which Howie Kendrick and Dustin Pedroia rank so highly on my prospect list, it's fair to say that second basemen are runs in the prospect world.

    In perusing the prospect battles that will open with Spring Training soon, one fact struck me as obvious: young second basemen are just not given the opportunity that shortstops are. While Hanley Ramirez, a volatile player with a questionable past has been all-but-handed the shortstop job in Florida, prospects from all over -- accomplished at AAA -- are not being given opportunities. Instead, organizations are making these prospects battle veterans that are often favored.

    No fantasy position enters spring with as many question marks as second base. Today we will look at the five Major League organizations that are being hesitant to lean towards talented youth in the face of poor veterans. We'll go in descending order given the amount of sense that I believe the team is using...

    Florida Marlins

    Competition: Pokey Reese v. Dan Uggla v. Alfredo Amezaga v. Robert Andino

    Not only do we start with the most reasonable organization of the five, but the most confusing as well. While the Florida firesale has been widely lauded for Larry Beinfest's ability to stockpile pitching, the Marlins go to camp with major question marks. We have addressed the shortstop (Ramirez) and second base issues, but there are also question marks at catcher and in the outfield. Joe Girardi stepped into a real "fix-me-upper" in Miami.

    It's arguable that Reese was one of the Marlins most substantial free agent signings this winter, a fact that might speak more to the Marlins chances in 2006 than anything I have heard before. Pokey is coming off a stint in Seattle during which he was oft-injured -- the story of his career -- and brought nothing to the table. While the Marlins could surely handle an injury to Reese, they certainly could use his presence this spring.

    The best of the four, in terms of talent, is Andino. There is a chance that Andino will start the year at shortstop while Hanley gets more seasoning, and in fact, a chance that Andino isn't moved to second at all. If not, the next youngest competitor is Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. While Uggla might look good from the statistic side, it's hard to ask Rule 5 picks to start out of Spring Training. Finally, Amezaga is a minor league veteran that has never maximized on Major League opportunities.

    If Ramirez secures the shortstop job, I'd like the Marlins to see what they have in Andino and keep Reese on the bench. Besides that scenario, however, this might be one instance when older is better.

    New York Mets

    Competition: Kaz Matsui v. Anderson Hernandez v. Jeff Keppinger v. Chris Woodward

    Simply put, Matsui is not going to go down as a Japanese success story. For whatever reason, he is one player that simply couldn't make the conversion, and will likely be a drain on any roster he plays. Even the Mets know this, I think, but Omar Minaya's re-haul just did not make it's way to second base this winter. In the end, the decision will come down to Willie Randolph, who for the Mets sake, has to believe Matsui has nothing left in the tank.

    Since Matsui has never been a favorite among Mets brass, look for Hernandez to get a long look in Spring Training. Known only for his defense before 2005, Hernandez broke out with the bat between AA and AAA last year. Skeptics think he'll revert back to his weak-hitting ways, but he's certainly a better bet to succeed than Matsui.

    I'm not a fan of the other two players. Keppinger is a blue-collar player that everyone can like, and makes contact at a pretty insane rate. However, that's the only plus he offers, and an empty .280 average won't do a lot. Finally, the Chris Woodward ship has sailed, and he should really be in camp to try and motivate Jose Valentin, who has the chance to be a great bench pick-up.

    Unless Minaya gets creative with a trade, I think the Mets would be crazy not to start the season with Hernandez up the middle. However, if the season started today, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Matsui in the eight spot.

    Cincinnati Reds

    Competition: Tony Womack v. Rich Aurilia v. Ryan Freel

    Dan O'Brien's tenure of this team took a real left turn this winter when he gave up multiple players for the carcass of Tony Womack. Not only is Womack a player with a pathetic career, but the Reds were relatively loaded at second. Most people would put together a lineup with Womack on the bench, where there are dozens (Uggla, for one) of inexperienced players who are better suited for the role.

    The job should be going to Ryan Freel. With the outfield settled -- Chris Denorfia is even waiting in the wings -- and the hot corner curse presumably over, one would think this could be the season Freel focuses on second. His OBP is among the team's best and his speed is absolutely fantastic. He has little to no pop, sure, but that hardly separates him from the other players on this list.

    Aurilia wasn't a bad re-sign, a player that I might bring to camp to compete with a player like Freel. However, it's one thing to do it with the agenda of motivating a young player, it's another to give the veteran a leg-up on the job. Rich has become very volatile at this point in his career, and while he's a smarter bet than Womack to succeed, he's looking to be just another failure.

    If Cincinnati wants to maximize their offensive output, Ryan Freel must be the Opening Day second baseman, plain and simple.

    San Diego Padres

    Competition: Josh Barfield v. Mark Bellhorn v. Geoff Blum v. Eric Young

    If not for 2004, this wouldn't be a competition. As far as second baseman go, few prospects were more revered after the 2003 season than Barfield, who topped the century RBI mark in high-A. He was the future up the middle for the Padres. This all changed in 2004, however, when the Southern League brought realization to Barfield's potential. His contact skills were bound to create problems. Last year, however, Barfield succeeded in the hitter friendly PCL, putting confidence back in the minds of the Padres front office.

    Not enough, however, as the club plans to make Barfield earn his spot. His main competition up the middle will come from Bellhorn, a player that is hoping San Diego tends to ignore 2005 numbers. I'm not sure Bellhorn is suited for a place like PTCO, given the fact that his power (which would be reduced at home) is one of his few assets. I'm not sure if there is a lot left in Bellhorn, and I also don't think I'd want to be the one to try and figure it out.

    The other two players on the list are depth chart filler, bench players at best. While Blum made headlines for himself last year in October, no team thinks he is more than an accomplished bench player. Young has not been a good second baseman for years, and shouldn't be in baseball too much longer.

    Barfield is the best player on this list, and by 2005 terms, it isn't particularly close. A revert back to 2004, however, and we'll find ourselves looking at Mark Bellhorn as a starter again.

    Texas Rangers

    Competition: Ian Kinsler v. D'Angelo Jimenez v. Mark Derosa

    It seems as if I've been advocating a Alfonso Soriano trade for so long that I'm still in shock that new Rangers brass actually pulled the trigger. One subplot behind Daniels great haul was that it opened a door for Ian Kinsler, one of the great success stories of 2004. Anyway, I was very impressed with Kinsler in Spring Training last year, and after a slow start, he got things going at AAA> He's no star by any imagination, but contrary to popular belief, either was Soriano.

    Jimenez is merely a good minor league pick-up these days for teams hoping he'll go back to posting OBPs above .350. Considering how bad he has played lately, however, that is not going to happen. The book has been written on D'Angelo Jimenez, and at this point, Buck Showalter would be silly to open it. As for Derosa, he's simply not starting material. He has value as a three-position bench player, but should not be given more than 200 ABs per year.

    Kinsler has become a favorite of mine in the last two years, and I think the Rangers must start Kinsler should they want to get the most out of this club.

    WTNYFebruary 10, 2006
    Revisiting Hendry
    By Bryan Smith

    Eighteen months ago, I hypothesized that Jim Hendry was one of the five best General Managers in baseball. This breakdown came a couple weeks after the Nomar Garciaparra trade, the 2004 deadline deal supposed to put the Cubs over the Wild Card hump. At this point in time, Hendry (with help from Andy McPhail) had built a club that was a few outs from the 2003 World Series, and in good position to make runs in 2004 and 2005. My high regard of Hendry was no unique thought at this time.

    However, like Cub fans have become so used to, the 2004 team wittled during the last two months, missing the Wild Card by three games. Hendry stayed creative during the ensuing winter, and went to Spring Training that many heralded as a club capable of winning the NL Central, and even, the World Series. Again, thanks to injuries, underachieving and Neifi, the 2005 team failed to meet expectations.

    Like his manager, Hendry enters the 2006 season in a place where no one would have thought just a year and a half ago: on the hot seat. Recently, I had a reader e-mail me asking for updated thoughts on Jim Hendry. "My question is, do you still feel the same about him? He's not looking that smart anymore," the reader questioned. Today we'll breakdown the last two winters to see if Hendry has indeed taken a step back as a General Manager.

    After the 2004 season, Hendry's first order of business was declining options to Moises Alou and Mark Grudzielanek. Given Alou's presumably declining skillset, few questioned the thought of letting the 39-year-old Alou sign elsewhere. And with Todd Walker still on the Cub roster, retaining Grudzi would have simply been a lost cause. Curiously, two weeks later, the Cubs then gave Neifi Perez a one-year deal to stay in Chicago. It is impossible to know, of course, what role Dusty Baker played in this decision, but this is certainly one of the worst decisions the Cub front office made in 2004.

    Knowing little about the direction the market was headed, especially in regards to starting pitching, the Cubs acted quickly in signing Glendon Rusch to a two-year deal. It was a very cheap contract for the team to sign, and Rusch was one of the most versatile players on the team. Again, this is a "win." In the next few weeks, the team would also choose to retain the likes of Todd Walker, Jose Macias, Todd Hollanswroth and Nomar Garciaparra. Henry Blanco was given a two-year, guaranteed deal to take over the back-up catching spot. No great shakes, but hardly a damning move.

    Besides trying to find a solution to the Nomar situation (which was solved with a low-risk one year deal), the key to Hendry's 2004-2005 winter was finding a home for Sammy Sosa. With about a week before pitchers and catchers reporting, the Cubs traded Sosa to the Baltimore Orioles for Jerry Hairston, Mike Fontenot and Dave Crouthers. The Cubs were criticized for not maximizing value, but retrospectively, acquiring more than a bag of baseball's for Sosa is a positive. Hairston would, at the very least, play his part in keeping the Cubs team OBP afloat in 2004. He would also sign Jeremy Burnitz that day to fill Sosa's spot, and while Burnitz outplayed Sosa during the 2006 season, Hendry didn't show the creativity here that Cub fans love.

    The last order of business before the 2005 season was to create a bit of depth within the bullpen. Hendry started with a few creative acquisitions, signing veteran Chad Fox to a minor league deal, and signing a Scott Williamson who was still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Seeing as though the Cubs got some (mediocre) contributions from both players, Hendry should be given a thumbs up. He then traded disgruntled right-hander Kyle Farnsworth during Spring Training to the Tigers, receiving Roberto Novoa, Scott Moore and Bo Flowers. Novoa has a good, wild young arm and Moore has about a 10% chance of making the Bigs. This is one of the few times Hendry might regret a trade he made.

    Two minor trades also made to shore up the bullpen were acquiring Stephen Randolph and then Cliff Bartosh in hopes to fill a LOOGY role. The Cubs spent too much focus on this, and even trading Bear Bay is too much. The real problem is that just months before, the Cubs had undervalued a southpaw in their own system, exposing Andy Sisco to the Rule 5 Draft. Many of the reasons for this decision, Cubs' brass says, is related to an undefined off-the-field incident. But when the difference between two talents is that of Sisco and John Koronka, it shouldn't matter. Simply put, I believe this to be the big, red mark on Hendry's resume as Cubs GM, which is why I'm so hard on him for it.

    All in all, this was just about as mediocre an offseason as it gets. The Cubs did little to really improve their offense, and entered the 2005 season with an outfield of Jason Dubois, Corey Patterson and Burnitz. With the offensive production that comes from those players, and the fact that the pitching staff quickly was injured, it's no surprise the Cubs ship sunk quickly.

    As usual, during the '05 year, Hendry was as busy as any General Manager. When LaTroy Hawkins became a scapegoat for the team's struggles in May, Jim traded him to the San Francisco Giants for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma. I cannot stress how good of a trade this is. However, his other big trades were a weird triangle of going from Dubois to Jody Gerut to Matt Lawton to nothing in the matter of weeks. While Matt Murton seems to be the best player of the bunch, safely secured on the Cubs roster, it's very confusing to understand why Hendry did this.

    And then, with a few more August trade dumps, the Cubs season ended. Hendry entered this current offseason needing a plan to: improve the outfield, middle infield, top of the order and bullpen. As is the case with every Cubs winter, expectations were high, and rumors of Hendry's firing even existed.

    First, let me start with the worst. Despite the fact that the Cubs 40-man roster is filled with serviceable young arms, the front office made a point of going after relievers with familiar names. First, Hendry quickly re-signed Ryan Dempster to an expensive three-year, $15.5 million contract. I never thought this to be horrible, but the general consensus was that Hendry was overpaying based on about two months of data. The other big spots that needed to be filled were the set-up and LOOGY roles, and this is when the Cubs fell flat on their faces. In the course of two weeks, before the winter meetings, the Cubs signed Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry to three year contracts. Three years, to two very mediocre relievers! Look at it this way: in 2008, the Cubs will still be paying Dempster, Eyre and Howry about $13 million. Yuck.

    As far as the rest of the winter, let's just say the Cubs entered free agency with a plan: Rafael Furcal. As usual, the team also believed they had the money to match any offer, and quickly offered Furcal a five-year, $55 million contract. The team looked like the favorites for weeks until the Dodgers swooped in and signed Furcal to a more expensive three year contract. Simply put, this was devastating to the Cubs, who then were willing to accept Ronny Cedeno as an everyday player. Oh, and they are bringing back Neifi as well, just in case Dusty needs his veteran fix during the season.

    Needing to fill the leadoff spot, Hendry then quickly jumped at Marlins CF Juan Pierre, trading three pitchers for him. The Cubs are one of the few organizations that can trade three B-/C+ talents and get away with it, so I won't criticize the deal too much. If Pierre falters in 2005, however, this deal has the potential to look very bad.

    Like at shortstop, the Cubs didn't take long in accepting Matt Murton as their everyday 2006 left fielder. That left only right field on the shopping list, for which Hendry filled with Jacque Jones. I was a backer of this trade, where most other people I have spoken to hate the deal. While Jones is a clear improvement over Burnitz, it is true the Cubs will enter Spring Training all-but-accepting a below-average outfield.

    One last order of business in the outfield was trading Corey Patterson. Again, we aren't privy to the negotiations for Patterson, so it makes little sense to do anything but criticize the final trade. "But he once had better offers on the table," is simply not fair game unless it's common knowledge. In the end, the fact that Chicago received even two players for Patterson is worth trading him. For Padres fans out there, Corey was the Cubs Sean Burroughs.

    This was basically the Cubs winter. The team also struggled with 40-man roster management again, trading the likes of Jon Leicester and Jermaine Van Buren to make room for people, and then still losing Juan Mateo in the draft. This seems to be the most substantial weakness that the current front office regime has.

    Jim Hendry has never traded away a prospect worthy of any real value in the end. In fact, in almost every trade he has made, he gets the better end of the bargain. Eighteen months later, I still think that Hendry is one of the five best GMs in the game at making trades.

    However, I'm no longer willing to unequivocally say he's one of the game's best GMs. It has been awhile -- in fact, since my article was written following the Nomar trade -- that we have seen the creative version of Jim Hendry at the helm. As the Cubs report to Spring Training in about a week, expectations are the lowest they have been since 2002. I've always been the first person to blame Dusty Baker, but this time, Hendry needs to prove to me that I'm pointing my finger at the right scapegoat.

    WTNYFebruary 07, 2006
    ACC Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    I have to admit my East Coast bias up front. While I'm Midwestern through and through, when it comes to college baseball, my preference lies with the Atlantic Coast Conference. After the ACC expansion, the conference features three of the best programs in the history of college baseball (Miami, FSU, GTech) as well as many great other programs like Clemson and North Carolina.

    Not only does the depth within the conference race pique my interest, but the level of play as well. Many of the players in this conference are some of the nation's best, stemming from great prep programs in Florida, Georgia or Virginia. This season is no exception as it features the projected top choice in the 2006 draft (Andrew Miller) and one of the top in the 2007 draft.

    No conference in college baseball will be as fun to watch this year as the ACC. Here's my preview of what you can be looking for in 2006...

    Players to Watch

    Note: This list is derived from players who appeared on first, second or third All-American teams by either Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball or the NCBWA.

    Wes Hodges - 3B - Georgia Tech
    Shane Robinson - OF - Florida State
    Daniel Bard - SP - North Carolina
    Andrew Miller - SP - North Carolina
    Matt Antonelli - 3B - Wake Forest
    Jon Jay - OF - Miami
    Matt Wieters - C/P - Georgia Tech
    Andrew Brackman - SP - NC State
    Aaron Bates - 1B - NC State
    Sean Doolittle - 1B/P - Virginia
    Taylor Harbin - 2B - Clemson
    Blake Wood - P - Georgia Tech
    Tyler Chambliss - RP - Florida State

    A fantastic list of players, as half of these players will be first round draft picks. Notably, of course, the two North Carolina aces will be top ten picks in the draft, with Miller possibly going at the top. I also love the likes of Wes Hodges, Shane Robinson and Matt Antonelli, all of whom should be top-two round selections.

    Hodges is an extremely consistent player with the potential to be one of the conference's most dangerous offensive talents, along with the less athletic talents like Jon Jay and Aaron Bates. Robinson and Antonelli are the opposites, two players more well-known for their athleticism than polish. Robinson was up for the Golden Spikes last year, and Antonelli is my favorite player in the conference.

    The top players in the conference for the 2007 draft will be battling for tops in their respective positions. Brackman is a super-athletic player with fantastic stuff that should be among the first of the pitchers drafted. Doolittle was a great high school talent that opted for college, and now remains just behind Joe Savery in the best utility talent race. And finally, Wieters is pretty much as good of a catcher as you will find.

    Two very good players not on the above list are Chris Perez from Miami, a first-round talent relief pitcher from Miami, and Josh Horton, North Carolina's #3 sophomore hitter.

    News Kids on the Block - Best Freshman

    Note: This list is derived from players in the SEC that were in Perfect Game USA's top 100 high school players last June. If interested, e-mail me and I'll send you the top 1000.

    Drew Taylor - LHP - NC State
    Marcus Jones - OF - Nc State
    Jemile Weeks - 2B - Miami
    Dennis Raben - 1B - Miami
    David Adams - 2B/3B - Virginia
    Nate Frieman - LHP - Duke
    Luke Murton - OF - Georgia Tech
    Buster Posey - SS/RHP - Florida State

    Depending on who you talk to, the class of the conference is either Adams or Posey. Adams should do wonders in replacing Ryan Zimmermann, while Posey is the type of raw talent that could become a #1 overall pick in a few years. In case you were wondering, there are ties to Major League players in Jemile Weeks (Rickie) and Luke Murton (Matt). Neither player is better than there brother was, but both have the potential to be great players by 2008.

    Three At the Top

    My pick to win the ACC, while not the consensus among most polls, is the NORTH CAROLINA Tar Heels. The team had high expectations last year following good freshman seasons from Miller and Bard. However, with five freshman getting significant time in the field, the product yielded a lot of errors and inconsistent hitting. Miller and Bard were solid, but they saw Robert Woodard pass both of them. This year, however, the team is a year older and should be tighter all around. To go along with the best weekend rotation in baseball, the Tar Heels have a lot of good sophomore offensive talent led by the consistent Horton and the powerful Seth Williams. If all the five-star talents on this team play well, a trip to Omaha is in the cards.

    College baseball is essentially a three-year sport. The first season is an introduction, the second season gets a player acclimated, and the third year is his send off. Some coaches get lucky to have a few good seniors lead his team. The GEORGIA TECH baseball team will have a host of them this season, making them among the favorites in the division. While Wieters and Hodges anchor this team, it will be the likes of Steven Blackwood, Mike Trapani and Jeff Kindel that lead this team into the postseason. Throw in a pair of good starters in Blake Wood and Tim Gustafson and you have a solid team.

    Solid is the way to define the CLEMSON baseball team. While the team doesn't have any real stars, it will be a mix of a lot of good players that give them team legs. Taylor Harbin is the best player on a good offense, and should be among the best second baseman in the NCAA. The pitching staff is the strength, however, led behind returnee Jason Berken. If this weekend rotation performs like it can, then Clemson has a chance to go far. I don't like them enough to put them at the top of any rankings, but this team does have outside Omaha potential.

    Other Postseason Possibilities

    My favorite team outside the big three is the NC STATE WOLFPACK, mostly due to the high-end talent of the top. Such discourse obviously starts with Andrew Brackman, the Wolfpack basketball player and 6-10 ace. The other great player on the team is Aaron Bates, one of the three most powerful hitters in college baseball. Possibly joining Bates in DH duties will be the nation's best transfer, Jon Still of Stetson University. This team has high-end talent all over the place, and while they don't have the depth of a team like Florida State, they could be one of the ACC's best surprises.

    This is a down year for the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. Much of last year's team is gone except Robinson, who started the year off in a big way, and should again be among the Golden Spikes finalists. Robinson will be helped by an extremely young team featuring the likes of Posey heavily. I don't think much of this team to make a postseason splash, but given the right junior leadership (Robinson, Chambliss, Henry), then they could certainly make a run.

    The other three teams in the division aren't quite at the caliber of NC or Florida State. Virginia was sort of the surprise last year, led by top five selection Ryan Zimmermann. The team will be a year early in 2006, led by the likes of David Adams and Sean Doolittle. The same is true for Miami, which aren't offering Jay or Perez a great supporting cast. Finally, I do like Wake Forest to surprise some people, but that may be more a result of my liking for Matt Antonelli than anything else.

    Bottom of the Barrel

    Like usual, it's foolish to expect much from Duke or Virginia Tech, two teams far from competing in such a deep conference. For Duke fans, I really just suggest you go out and support the recruitment of Frieman. Maryland is another traditionally poor program, and they could battle the rest for 12th place honors in 2006. The number nine team is Boston College, coming off the school's best year ever. BC graduated much of their talent, however, and as a result will struggle in their first year in the ACC.

    WTNYFebruary 03, 2006
    Computer Problems
    By Bryan Smith

    In my years of reading Aaron Gleeman, I've read of him losing about two or three computers to unknown reasons. I was always surprised that I never had to deal with it.

    Now I know how it feels.

    My computer will not turn on this morning, which means I presumably lost the ACC Preview that was set to run today. Unfortunately, I'll have to re-write the preview in my normal Tuesday slot next week. The College Preview will have to take a Friday off, and will resume tomorrow as we go over the best teams not covered by the 5 conferences we chose.

    Sunday, we will have the Baseball Analysts All-American team. The College Baseball Preview will then have to conclude Tuesday with my ACC Preview.

    Have a good weekend, and be sure to check back for the rest of the College Baseball Preview!

    WTNYFebruary 02, 2006
    SEC Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    For years, the SEC has had to deal with the claim that the conference is overrated. Some criticize the RPI, others the selection committee. However, the conference has a history of success in the College World Series, thanks especially to an LSU dynasty about a decade ago.

    Nowadays the conference has even more parity, as teams just beat up on each other within conference play. Last year, the SEC offered strong teams, strong players and strong fan bases. The best prospects from the south continually stay within the SEC, and there isn't an easy win within the conference. Overrated? Not so much.

    Enjoy the preview...

    Players to Watch

    Note: This list is derived from players who appeared on first, second or third All-American teams by either Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball or the NCBWA.

    James Adkins - LHP - Tennessee
    J.P. Arencibia - C - Tennessee
    Chris Coghlan - 3B - Mississippi
    Adam Davis - 2B/SS - Florida
    Clay Dirks - LHP - LSU
    Brian Jeroloman - C - Florida
    Matt LaPorta - 1B - Florida
    Wade LeBlanc - LHP - Alabama
    Darren O'Day - RP - Florida
    David Price - LHP - Vanderbilt
    John Shelby - 2B - Kentucky
    Jon Willard - - South Carolina
    Mark Wright - - Mississippi

    Of this group, LaPorta is assured to be a first round pick this June, and Arencibia and Price will be the same in 2007. In fact, it wouldn't be a shock to see all three become top ten overall picks. After LaPorta, the 2007 class has a lot of fringe first rounders that should be off the board at the end of the third: Coghlan, Davis, Jeroloman, LeBlanc, Shelby. Of the group, I like Coghlan the best, though a catching-starved system (maybe the Cubs?) would love a defender and patient hitter like Jeroloman.

    One player not on this list to watch is Brooks Brown, one of the many closers that looked very good in the Cape Cod League. He'll be closing games for the Georgia Bulldogs this season, and should be the Georgia player attracting the most scouts. Finally, my favorite player on this list is James Adkins, who excelled in the CWS last year as the Saturday starter behind Luke Hochevar. While the Golden Spikes finalist is gone, Adkins should go to the next level with his great curveball. He'll be a good first round pick in 2007, I guarantee it.

    News Kids on the Block - Best Freshman

    Note: This list is derived from players in the SEC that were in Perfect Game USA's top 100 high school players last June. If interested, e-mail me and I'll send you the top 1000.

    Jarred Bogany - OF - LSU
    Justin Bristow - SS/RHP - Auburn
    Diallo Fon - OF - Vanderbilt
    Reese Havens - SS - South Carolina
    Robert Lara - RHP - LSU
    Matt Lea - RHP/IF - Mississippi State
    Josh Lindblom - RHP - Tennessee
    Miers Quigley - LHP - Alabama
    Cody Satterwhite - RHP - Mississippi
    Iain Sebastian - RHP - Georgia
    Justin Smoak - 1B - South Carolina
    Josh Zeid - RHP - Vanderbilt

    The highest ranked player on this list is Justin Bristow, who was the 15th ranked prep player a year ago. A weak Auburn team will be ready to have Bristow play two ways, though word is he has more potential up the middle. My two picks for success are Justin Smoak and Miers Quigley. Smoak had as much power as any high school player, and Quigley will thrive when learning a few southpaw nuances from Wade LeBlanc.

    According to Baseball America, Vanderbilt had the best recruiting class in the nation a year ago. Diallo Fon will start in the outfield this season, and you can expect Pedro Alvarez to be on the hot corner. With David Price as a sophomore and a bunch of good, young Freshman, the Commodores should be the SEC team to watch in 2007. However, this year they will likely remain on the fringe of postseason play or not: much like last season.

    Class of the SEC - Florida

    Depending on the source, it's pretty consensus that Florida enters the season as a top five overall team, and the team to beat in the SEC. The Gators earned this tough label last June, when the team lost to Texas in the finals at Omaha. Much of the offense from that team is back, with only place-setter Jeff Corsaletti moving onto the next level.

    If anything, the Gator offense will be full of star power in 2006. LaPorta obviously is the team's best player, and is the most dangerous hitter in the country. While his strikeout rates are among the highest of any projected first round pick, no one has an Isolated Slugging near LaPorta, who was over .300 last season. After a good summer with Team USA, where he continued to show prodigious power, a .700 slugging percentage is not out of the question.

    Joining LaPorta in the heart of the order will be second baseman Adam Davis and catcher Brian Jeroloman. Davis is one of the most fun players to watch in college baseball, because he literally does everything well. In a battle with Josh Rodriguez (Rice) and Jason Donald (Arizona) for the number two middle infielder in the country (behind Evan Longoria) should give Davis some added incentive this season. At the plate, Jeroloman succeeds most at one thing: drawing walks. As a result, he's almost a lock for a .400 OBP this season. His defense behind the plate has been lauded since he was a freshman, which helps make up for any lack of power he has.

    Other than Corsaletti, the Gators only other position player lost is shortstop Justin Tordi. In his spot could be Clayton Pisani, one of the club's best recruits last year. Pisani plays great defense up the middle, and is probably a better bet to succeed than the likes of Bryson Barber. However, the club has enough offensive depth to deal with shortstop becoming a black hole. Brian Leclerc is the other name that will help give the Gators four of the best hitters in the country.

    Florida's weakness, however, will be their pitching staff, putting much more pressure on the offense to succeed. The club lost their top two starters from 2005 in Bryan Bass and Alan Horne. This year, it will be up to Bryan Ball and Stephen Locke to lead this pitching staff. A sleeper is Christian Madson, a player who has struggled with injuries for two seasons now after looking great as a freshman. Speaking of freshman, the staff could get very positive contributions from Chas Spottswood (#126 by PG) and 6-8 Mark McClure, who could be college baseball's next Ryan Doherty.

    With Connor Falkenbach having left, the closing duties are all up to Darren O'Day now. He's the right man for the job, though I really question whoever put him on an All-American team ahead of the likes of Brown. Besides O'Day, look for good bullpen work from Steven Porter, Michael Branham and Josh Edmondson.

    The Gators are in danger of losing much of their offense in 2007, and are thus putting an emphasis on this season to be the year. However, while their offense might take them as far as Omaha, it will be the pitching staff that leads to the club's inevitable loss.

    Southern Depth - Others in top 25

    Note: These are the other 6 teams that are commonly ranked by the sources I've already hit on. Their placement below is my subjective opinion.

    Mississippi State: The Bulldogs lost their best player from last season to the draft in Brad Corley. Very little else is gone from a team that went 42-22 last year. The team returns every other starting player this season, including the likes of Thomas Berkery and Brad Jones. After a great job in a small role last season, look for big things from senior Joseph Hunter. The pitching staff should be much improved in 2006, despite the losses of Todd Doolittle and Alan Johnson from the rotation. One of the spots will be filled by sophomore John Lalor, who pitched well in the Cape after an admirable Freshman season. The final starting spot should be a battle between Josh Johnson and star recruit Matt Lea. With success on the pitching staff, this club undoubtedly has Omaha potential.

    LSU: This club is the opposite of experienced teams like Florida and MSU. Gone from the 2005 version of this club are its top four hitters: Nick Stavinoha, Ryan Patterson, Clay Harris and Blake Gill. This puts a considerable onus on Chris Jackson and Jordan Mayer, the two sophomores on the infield corners. Not surprisingly, given the success this program has perenially on the recruiting front, much of the offense will be made of some of the nation's better freshman. Jarred Bogany and Jason Ogata are assured full-time positions, while you'll also see the likes of J.T. Wise and Robert Lara compete for spots. I'm also a bit confused how the Tigers plan to prevent runs in 2006 with everyone but Clay Dirks seemingly gone from the staff. This team is simply a year away from contention, just like we'll be saying about Florida in another year or two.

    Arkansas: A very young team in 2005, patient Razorback fans will be rewarded in 2006 with a very good season. After a pretty lackluster recruiting class -- no one in the PG top 500 -- the club has no real holes that can't be replaced in 2006. The losses of Scott Hode and Clay Goodwin will be managed by what was a very deep bench last year. The rotation returns all four of its starters, most noteworthy being sophomore ace Nick Schmidt. On offense, look for another big season from first baseman Danny Hamblin, who had 30 extra-base hits in 220 at-bats last season. I like this team to surprise in 2006 after a merely mediocre conference performance last year.

    Tennessee: Gone is Luke Hochevar and his 2.26 ERA. Chase Headley and his .530 OBP have moved onto professional baseball. Eli Iorg was drafted after posting a .667 slugging. That's a lot right there. Still, somehow, star power remains in this program. In the 2007 draft, the Vols should have two of the top fifteen picks in Adkins and Arencibia, the latter could be a top five pick. Also remaining on the team are such players as Sean Watson and Kelly Edmundson, both of whom will have a great effect on the UT program. Finally, look out for Josh Lindblom to complete a good Volunteer weekend rotation that will lead this team pretty far. However, it seems to me that they are a bad pitching performance or a slump away from falling apart, and as a result, a year from contention.

    South Carolina: What jumps out when looking at the Carolina roster is the freshman set to make an impact. Smoak has double-digit home run potential, and Reese Havens has all the makings of a future first-rounder up the middle. Heck, I could see both Will Atwood and James Darnell making significant contributions. All these freshman will undoubtedly create quite the offense, giving senior Michael Campbell and junior Jon Willard some protection in the middle of the order. However, a lot of runs might not be enough in some games as the Gamecocks have a very inexperienced pitching staff with their top three starters all graduating. The weekend rotation will be featuring three guys who did not hit the 30 inning mark last year, which isn't a good sign. As a result, you can bet that South Carolina will go as far as their offense, and especially those stud freshman, take them.

    Mississippi: Brian Pettway and Stephen Head hit a lot of home runs last year, 39 to be exact. Both are now in farm systems. However, the Ole Miss offense will survive. Mark Wright remains after hitting 13 home runs as a sophomore, and of course, the club has Coghlan. Chris does it all at third base, and it would not be a surprise to see his OBP around .500 in 2006. The rotation also saw some big exits, as the top five starters and nearly 500 strikeouts leave the program. Therefore, it's likely that by the end of the season, freshman Cody Satterwhite (my SEC FOY pick) will be the club's Friday Night pitcher. It's hard to go far like that, but with this experienced offense, I wouldn't bet against it.

    A Trio of Potentials

    It wouldn't be a surprise to see Vanderbilt, Georgia or Alabama in the field of 64 at season's end. In fact, Baseball America thinks that both latter teams will be in postseason play. 'Bama is the opposite of a lot of the teams we've been looking at: most of their offense has graduated. However, the team has a pitching staff that could lead them to quite a few wins. After a great Cape performance, Wade LeBlanc leads the way, and as mentioned, should help in making a star out of Miers Quigley. Like South Carolina, Alabama will go as far as their recruiting class takes them.

    Georgia has a very experienced team with much of their offense back. This will be the strength of the Bulldogs team, and it will lead an inexperienced pitching staff. Besides Brooks Brown in the bullpen, the team is another depending on a lot of unproven starting pitchers. This should allow freshman Iain Sebastian to make a pretty big impact. Over in Vanderbilt, patience is the motto amongst their fans. After a super strong recruiting class, the team will be hot and cold in 2006, with just an outside chance at postseason play. In 2007, however, they will be among the top two or three programs in the SEC, with the foundation laid to continue to be a powerhouse.

    At the Bottom of the East and West

    It's going to be a rough year for Auburn fans, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Like Vandy, the Tigers will be starting a few freshman this year, and their play dictates Auburn's future. Bristow has the potential to be a star, as do newcomers Luke Greinke (Zack's brother) and Mike Bianucci in the infield. Look out for this team in 2008.

    As for Kentucky, I suggest fans go out just to watch John Shelby. The end.

    WTNYJanuary 27, 2006
    Code Red in Cincy
    By Bryan Smith

    When moving into a new ballpark, the idea is to follow the Cleveland Indians model. In the seven years prior to changing stadiums, the Indians were one of the American League's worst teams: a 498-636 record. However, the team fittingly left Cleveland Stadium for Jacobs Field at the same time their youth blossomed. In the eight years that followed the move, the Indians made the playoffs six time with a regular season record of 718-509.

    Unsurprisingly, the team was no worse than third in AL attendance during this run, drawing over three million fans for six straight seasons. New stadiums add increased revenue, and separately, winning brings in more fans. Add winning and a new stadium, and the results are profitable.

    This was the Cincinnati Reds hope following the 2002 season, when they finished 3rd in the National League Central. While the team had flirted with success in the previous decade, they had little to show for themselves since Lou Piniella's 1990 World Series Championship. However, one could argue the pieces were in place after 2002.

    Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns had just finished their first full seasons in Cincinnati, and were both extremely productive. Between the two in the outfield was Ken Griffey Jr., who had been great with Cincy previously, but struggled with injuries in 2002. The club's 4.27 ERA had been a product of Elmer Dessens, Chris Reitsma, Danny Graves and Scott Williamson. Heck, Jimmy Haynes had won 15 games.

    The Reds were hoping to pull at least a shortened version of the Indians model by winning the division in 2003. They failed, miserably. While the offense regressed by a total of 15 runs, the Great American Ballpark saw the pitching staff give up an extra 112 runs. The club's bullpen had been a success in 2003, but Jim Bowden's rotation was abysmal: Ryan Dempster and Haynes had ERAs above 6.00, and as you surely remember, the Danny Graves starting expirament failed miserably.

    It's no surprise that after the 2003 season, General Manager Jim Bowden was out of Cincinnati. The club hired Texas executive, and Doug Melvin/John Hart understudy, Dan O'Brien to fill Bowden's shoes. His job requirements were simple: piece together a viable pitching staff and maximize the potential from the offense.

    Bowden certainly could have left O'Brien with worse to work with. Months before leaving the team, Bowden had acquired Aaron Harang for bargain-basement signing Jose Guillen, as well as landing Brandon Claussen from the Yankees. Ryan Wagner had been picked in the previous draft, and expectations were pretty high for all three players.

    [Note from Bryan, 1/29/06: Since this article was written, my readers have informed me that (current interim GM) Brad Kullman was the man responsible for acquiring Harang and Claussen. It's no great surprise that two of the best moves the Reds have made in the last five years have had Kullman's stamp. Coincidence, it is not.]

    In his first real move as General Manager, nearly two months after having been hired, O'Brien attempted to fill a rotation spot with Cory Lidle. Formerly relatively successful as a member of the Oakland A's, Lidle was coming off a season with Toronto in which he had a 5.75 ERA. Lidle's durability was solid, so you might think he would be a fine addition to the back of a rotation. In Cincinnati, he was near the top.

    Besides a signing of Javier Valentin and releasing Russ Branyan, O'Brien went into Spring Training having changed very little about the team Jim Bowden had handled him. However, in Spring Training he made a pair of very interesting moves. On March 25, the Reds signed veteran reliever Todd Jones to a one-year contract. As Jones would take a spot in the bullpen, the next day the club traded Chris Reitsma to the Braves for Bubba Nelson and Jung Bong.

    Thanks to some increased health, good revivals from Sean Casey and Barry Larkin, and great power from Adam Dunn and Wily Mo Pena, the Cincinnati offense improved by more than 50 runs in 2004. Griffey even had 300 at-bats during the season. However, by scoring 750 runs, the club was asking for a reduction of 136 runs from their pitching staff to have a pythagorean record of even .500. Rather than shaving off 136 runs, the staff gave up 21 more.

    As one might guess, the Cory Lidle signing was no great success story, as he put up a 5.32 ERA in 149 innings. Also, young pitchers Jose Acevedo and Claussen were abysmal in a combined 41 starts. Simply put, Paul Wilson and Aaron Harang were simply not good enough -- aces with 92 and 82 ERA+s, respectively -- to offset horrendous performances from the likes of Todd Van Poppel, John Reidling and Phil Norton.

    The one positive in my mind from O'Brien's first season at GM was the way he handled his first two real signings, Lidle and Jones, trading each around deadline time. Magically, O'Brien was able to convince the Phillies to give up a combined five players for two months worth of two mediocre pitchers. Of the group, O'Brien was notably able to land Anderson Machado, Josh Hancock and Javon Moran. So, O'Brien did make up for his trading gaffe of Reitsma with these two.

    This is where, my friends, O'Brien left us with very little to compliment him on. Again, he entered the 2004-2005 winter with the goal of creating a better pitching staff, of dropping about 150 runs in that department. Ownership even gave him a little bit of money to spend to do so. So, naturally, O'Brien began by awarding Paul Wilson for his mediocre season (hadn't he learned the Jimmy Haynes lesson) by giving him a two-year, $8.2 million contract. Without spoiling the ending, I'll say this: the Reds will be paying Wilson money in 2006, but after 2005, expectations will be pretty low.

    His next move was trading prospect (and I use that word loosely here) Dustin Moseley to the Anaheim Angels for Ramon Ortiz. I actually liked this move at the time, thinking Ortiz had a bit of an upside, despite pretty bad seasons in 2003 and 2004. Still, the cost was very little, and at worst, the team could ship him to the bullpen. However, both I and O'Brien didn't quite note the flyball issues that Ortiz had, which would not be helped by a move to the Great American Ballpark.

    Next on the docket was the bullpen, for which O'Brien signed veterans Dave Weathers and Kent Mercker. Both essentially got two-year contracts, Weathers at a total of $2.75 million, and Mercker at $2.6 million. It's dangerous to be signing multi-year deals on players like this, but with the cost low and some previous success on their resumes, O'Brien could have done worse with these deals.

    Having released Russ Branyan, quit on Brandon Larson, and discovered that Ryan Freel didn't slug like a third baseman, O'Brien's next move was signing Joe Randa to a modest one-year, $1.3 million contract. This isn't a move with a lot of upside -- a theme of last year's offseason -- but again, he could do worse. Eventually, I'd like to note, Randa would get traded midseason for two pitching prospects. If we say anything good about Dan O'Brien, it must be that he's quite skilled at persuading others on just how valuable two months of cheap mediocrity is.

    Still, the Reds were missing one thing: an ace. And O'Brien had nearly $9 million to spend on acquiring one. While a player like Kevin Millwood was signed relatively inexpensively a year ago, the Reds opted on Eric Milton. Like all of O'Brien's acquisitions, Milton had a history of durability, a stamp of mediocrity, and the ability to allow the home run. In the minds of the Reds front office, this was worth a three-year, $25.5 million deal. Horrendous.

    In 2005, the Reds scored 70 more runs than the previous season. They allowed, somehow, 18 less runs. However, they lost three more games last season, as the team ERA of 5.15 still didn't get the job done. Felipe Lopez broke out, Griffey was healthy, and the offense performed admirably. But led by Milton's 6.47 ERA and Wilson's 46.1 innings pitched, the pitching staff was again a failure. Besides trading Randa and stealing Allan Simpson from Colorado, O'Brien was quiet while his team self-destructed.

    To make matters worse, for the third straight season, attendance fell at the Great American Ballpark. In fact, it fell below the two million mark, nearing Cinergy Field numbers.

    This was seen as a very important winter for the Cincinnati Reds. The team was finally able to trade one of their many outfielders for some pitching, but besides that, was set there. And considering that Harang and Claussen had successful seasons, and Milton is tied up, O'Brien was left with patching up just two rotation slots.

    Following a season in which he hit .312, but was sapped of all power, O'Brien decided Sean Casey was the best member to trade from his depth. One could argue that a player like Austin Kearns would be better, given Casey's presence in the PR department as well as Kearns' numerous suitors. However, O'Brien found something he liked: a left-handed, durable (well, sorta), home run prone, mediocre starting pitcher. In exchange for Casey, the team acquired Dave Williams, coming off a 4.41 ERA season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. This wasn't a horrendous move, but I certainly contest that the team could have done better.

    In a very odd turn, on the day in which the Casey deal was consummated, O'Brien also felt the need to add a second baseman. Why, you might ask? Don't the Reds have Ryan Freel? Apparently Freel's .371 OBP isn't better than the speed and veteran leadership that Tony Womack provides! Oh, by the way, this is a player whose OBP has never topped .350. While this deal isn't up to Milton-esque proportions, O'Brien was able to stand on the other fence of a meaningless one-year acquisition. Especially when, weeks later, the team would re-sign Rich Aurilia to a one-year contract.

    This is where the story ends for Dan O'Brien. Shortly after taking ownership of the Reds, Robert Castellini fired O'Brien, putting Brad Kullman in the interim GM role while he searches for the next person to lead this team. O'Brien's legacy is not a very good one, arguably one without a vision but rather the obsession with mediocrity.

    I'd like to think there is still some potential to be found within the depths of this Red team. If in charge, I would trade both Jason Larue and Austin Kearns for pitching. In their spots, Javier Valentin takes over the catcher role, while Pena plays in right field. In center is a split between Chris Denorfia and Freel, while Aurilia mans second base for one more season. Add the two starters that those two veteran hitters provide to a rotation of Williams, Harang and Claussen, and things could be worse.

    But no matter which action the next leader of the Reds takes, it must be one with a clear vision. The team must maximize the potential of its young offensive players, build a farm system from nothing, and of course, add pitching to a staff that has barely seen it in a decade.

    And, more than anything else, put fans in the seats. It's too late to follow the Cleveland Indian method, but the mantra that winning adds attendance applies even in a stadium's fourth year.

    WTNYJanuary 24, 2006
    Nightmare on the Farm
    By Bryan Smith

    Ranking farm systems is a practice that I generally avoid. It's simply too difficult to come up with a solid ranking, as one should effectively balance the number of and degree of top-heavy players, the depth in a system, as well as those that have recently graduated and been traded. It's a lot to balance.

    Instead, most of the time I like to stick to tiers. We know that at the top of any organizational ranking list, in no particular order, should be the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Marlins and Angels. These come as no surprise. We know about the other good systems: the Devil Rays, Red Sox, Braves, etc. The successes of these teams are well documented.

    We criticize General Managers for bad trades, for bad signings, for not making any trades or any signings. We bash managers and players, and after the occasional draft, we criticize scouting directors. However, very seldom do we talk about organizations that need to improve their farm systems.

    In the mailbag following my top 75 prospects, I made a chart of the number of prospects that each organization brought to my list. There were no teams that completely missed out; however, six clubs had just one prospect in my top 100 players. Today I'd like to look at those six in more detail in hopes of narrowing down the worst of the bunch. For each of the teams, I will give you the next best three prospects (in my mind), along with a brief look at what else the system provides.

    Washington Nationals

    Top 100 Prospect: Ryan Zimmerman (12)
    Next Best Three : Kory Casto, Clint Everts, Colin Balester

    Things were looking really, really bad about eight months ago. Top prospect Clint Everts was injured, Larry Broadway was struggling, and Mike Hinckley was looking like a different pitcher. There was very, very little to like in this system. And then came Ryan Zimmerman, the fourth pick of the 2005 draft. Zimmerman shot through the system, going from the University of Virginia to the Major Leagues in about two months. Next year, Zim is a favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year. He is the Washington system.

    In my mind, the second best prospect in the Washington system is a different third baseman. Kory Casto, a third round pick in 2003, broke out in a big way last season. Casto has very good power and patience, but is lacking a bit in contact skills and athleticism. After Casto is 2002 first-round pick Clint Everts, who has progressed very slowly in the system, especially after being injured last season. His potential is that of a #2/3 starter, but it remains to be seen if he can reach that. After those three players, there is very little that I like in the system.

    New York Mets

    Top 100 Prospect: Lastings Milledge (17)
    Next Best Three: Phil Humber, Brian Bannister, Anderson Hernandez

    I've talked very much this winter about Omar Minaya's moves this winter that have mortgaged the Mets future for the present. For Carlos Delgado, he traded the likes of Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Jacobs and Grant Psomas. Paul Lo Duca cost Gaby Hernandez. Once upon a time, this system had some very good players at the top, and then enough average talent in the system to be middle-of-the-road. Then, suddenly, all but Milledge left the system, and there was just one player at the top. Suddenly, those average players are among the organization's best.

    One player not mentioned in this debate is Mike Pelfrey, who adds considerably to this system. He provides the team with one of the top 50 talents they lost in Petit. We also should give the team credit for having the players from which to deal, as much of the success in 2006 will be a result of the farm system. The Mets aren't the worst system in the Majors, but after losing so much, they are near that bottom tier.

    Chicago Cubs

    Top 100 Prospect: Felix Pie (19)
    Next Best Three: Mark Pawelek, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Harvey

    The Cubs had very high hopes for their farm system last year, as they were planning on having Felix Pie turn a corner, and they had a minor league home run king in Brian Dopirak. Angel Guzman was supposed to be healthy again, Ryan Harvey was entering his first full season and Jason Dubois was ready to get his big break. The Cubs were very, very well thought of, with probably one of the top 15 systems in the game.

    If you had told me that Matt Murton would hit over .300 in the Majors, and Ronny Cedeno's bat would prove to be real, I would have said top ten. But, that was not the case. Brian Dopirak fell apart, Angel Guzman stayed hurt, and Billy Petrick got hurt. Jason Dubois struggled in a limited opportunity, and Felix Pie was hurt for the year by July. Still, Pie had a very good season, and the team's draft pick -- Mark Pawelek -- showed fantastic potential. There is still hope for this system, but they simply need to have a year in 2006 that is as good as 2005 was bad.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Top 100 Prospect: Anthony Reyes (31)
    Next Best Three: Colby Rasmus, Chris Lambert, Tyler Greene

    For years, the Cardinals have floated near the bottom of Baseball America's organizational rankings. Last year, they were dead last. Simply put, Walt Jocketty does not put a lot of stock in minor leaguers, and the team has never had a great number of players from which to trade from. However, it does appear that, with a more college-oriented philosophy, the tide might be changing in St. Louis.

    In 2004, Anthony Reyes had a modest start to the season in high-A before dominating the Southern League. And whatever potential he showed that year, Reyes proved to be for real in AAA, as well as limited Major League action last season. While the Cardinals haven't showed a ton of faith to give him a spot yet, they expect very high things down the road. Much further down the road lies much of the rest of the system. The Cardinals are very highly invested in their 2005 draft, which includes Rasmus, Greene, Mark McCormick, and Nick Stavinoha. We'll see how much of this is for real next season, but for the first time in awhile, there is reason for hope.

    Chicago White Sox

    Top 100 Prospect: Brian Anderson (33)
    Next Best Three: Lance Broadway, Ray Liotta, Ryan Sweeney

    In the past, I have criticized Omar Minaya for trading most of the Mets top prospects. If I do that, it's only fair to do the same with Kenny Williams, who acquired Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome in part because of Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Haigwood and Chris Young. Young broke out in big ways last year, Gonzalez turned out to be a fantastic draft pick, and Haigwood is the kind of solid, young starter that good systems have lots of. However, with those three players gone, there is not much depth left in this system.

    At the top is Brian Anderson, who was part of the reason behind Young's trade, as was organizational favorite Jerry Owens. Joining Owens atop the White Sox thoughts is Ryan Sweeney, who has been touted highly since his first Spring Training, and former first-rounder Josh Fields, who finished the season better than you might think. Besides that group, there is very little else in this system. I like southpaw Ray Liotta more than I did Haigwood, and Broadway was certainly not the worst first-rounder they could have made.

    Cincinnati Reds

    Top 100 Prospect: Homer Bailey (40)
    Next Best Three: Jay Bruce, Chris Denorfia, Travis Wood

    It isn't a good sign for an organization when their top prospect can be found on my breakouts list. Bailey is a fantastic talent that I think highly of, but he's still pretty raw, and his presence atop the Reds prospect list speaks more of the organization than it does Homer. For years the Reds have tried to fix their pitching weakness by cultivating it in the minors, and for years, the results have been ugly. Their pitching prospects continually get hurt.

    Like the Cardinals, much of the future of the Reds farm system is predicated upon the 2005 draft. The early results are promising, as Jay Bruce showed fantastic athleticism as a top pick, and Travis Wood looked like a steal. If those two continue to break out in 2006, this system will prosper. I should also note that I think very highly of Denorfia, who would be in my top 125 and should make an excellent fringe outfielder (CF or 4th OF) for some system. However, this team lacks any form of depth you could imagine, and Bruce, Wood and Bailey are all very far away from being Major Leaguers.

    * * * * *

    In the end, none of these systems look to be particularly impressive. However, I think the Nationals and Reds clearly stand out as the two worst teams. Given the potential of Bailey and Bruce, and my high thoughts for Denorfia, I think Cincinnati probably has the better system.

    This gives the Washington Nationals, understaffed for years, the worst system in Major League Baseball. As this team finds an owner, and likely a new staff in the coming year, we can only hope an emphasis is placed on a farm system that offers very little hope.

    WTNYJanuary 18, 2006
    Leaving Las Vegas
    By Bryan Smith
    ["You Just Hope He Never Changes'] said Vin Scully about Edwin Jackson last night, and I couldn't agree more. Especially because Vin was talking not only about Jackson's pitching, but his smile.

    Call me a sentimental fool, but there is nothing like seeing a young baseball player thrilled. And to see that ballplayer balance his excitement with poise - that's pretty much the pinnacle of enjoyment for me as a fan.

    -- Jon Weisman, the day following Edwin Jackson's MLB debut

    Phenoms. Among the many reasons we watch baseball, there is no question that they are high up there on the list. We live to see Felix Hernandez step on the rubber as a teenager, or Jeff Francouer almost winning the Rookie of the Year. These players bring hope to organizations, and even more so, to the game.

    This is what the Dodgers thought they had in Edwin Jackson. However, management simply got too excited, too quickly. The Dodgers saw a former sixth-round pick pitching well at the AA level -- at the age of 20 -- and jumped at the chance to bring him up. Jackson pitched well in September of 2003, under the pressure, but since has fallen apart. He has since become a "change of scenery needed" player, unfortunately falling in the same category as a player like Sean Burroughs.

    Jackson's pro career started in 2002 when the team began him in the South Atlantic League less than a year removed from high school. It was there when Edwin first began to show signs that he had been a steal in the draft. During that season, Jackson had a 1.98 ERA for the Catfish, allowing just 79 hits in 104.2 innings. However, by striking out just 85 batters, Jackson was able to stay under the radar (respectively), for the most part.

    That changed quickly in 2003. The Dodgers decided to allow the mature Jackson to skip a level, bypassing an offensive park at Vero Beach and moving up to the Southern League. This is where Edwin took off. When the AA season had ended, Jackson was among the league leaders in strikeouts, whiffing 157 batters in 148.1 innings. He continued to post a good H/9 rate, allowing just 121 hits, and showing moderate control with 53 walks.

    Edwin was on top of the world. Any apprehension about his 3.70 ERA -- despite those great peripherals -- were erased by his fantastic stuff. The Dodgers, clinging to the hope of staying in the playoff race, called up Edwin at the end of the 2003 season. In his first start, Jackson drew the task of going up Randy Johnson and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The results were fantastic, as Jackson allowed just one earned run on four hits in six innings, allowing zero walks.

    His fastball was in the upper 90s. His breaking pitch was biting. That month, Jackson would have a 2.45 ERA in 22 innings, allowing 17 hits while striking out 19. We thought he was guaranteed a rotation spot the next season. And this is when we enter the gray area.

    Some say the Dodgers changed Jackson's mechanics over the winter between 2003 and 2004. Some think Edwin might have been injured. Some worry he didn't work hard enough. Or, he simply could have been pitching over his head in '03. Whatever the cause, Jackson was not prepared to meet expectations in 2004. After a poor Spring Training, the Dodgers decided to start Jackson in Las Vegas to start the 2004 season.

    For those unaware, Las Vegas is one of the PCL's most extreme hitter parks, a stadium not built for the psyche of 21-year-old starters. In nineteen starts at AAA that season, Edwin had a 5.86 ERA. The cause is not what you might guess (home runs), but instead a large increase in walks. Simply put, over the winter, Jackson's control of his fastball fell apart. And lacking the same bite on his breaking pitch, thanks to the desert air, Edwin managed to log just 70 strikeouts in 90.1 AAA innings.

    His AAA season was interrupted, however, by another trial in the Majors. Needing a starter for a June 2 game against the Brewers, the Dodgers decided to give Edwin a couple day's rest from the 51s. Again, he impressed pitching in the Majors, allowing one run over five innings in which he uncharacteristically let his infield do his work for him. The team then sent Jackson down, and tried again a month later. This time, the results weren't so good, though the team would win in each of his starts, and his season ERA was still just 3.86 when the team allowed him to finish the AAA season.

    Given a September call-up, this is officially when the wheels came off for Edwin Jackson. In his last 13 innings, he would give up fifteen earned runs, 22 hits and four home runs. Even his poor performance couldn't complete deter excitement for his right arm, as I saw a few ups and downs in an appearance I watched via MLB TV:

    In the 12 pitch inning, Jackson threw nine fastballs, showing a drastic preference for the pitch. He was between 91-95 mph on what I've described as a 'slow gun', so probably even 93-97. Despite walking one batter, Jackson showed solid control of the pitch, never missing by too much. He also showed a decent curve, with solid downward bite at 82-84 mph. It looks like he has the tendency to leave his pitches up in the zone, which is probably the reason for the three home runs allowed this season. But overall, I like him, while admitting the ranking may have been a little high.

    While Jackson's poor September couldn't tarnish his reputation, it did all but guarantee a return trip to Las Vegas. The Dodgers did not realize that it was not the right environment for him to pitch in. And since September, 2004, things have only gotten worse. This past season, Jackson would pitch in 55.1 AAA innings. During that time, and I urge you to brace yourself, he allowed 76 hits, 37 walks, 13 home runs and 53 earned runs. An ERA of 8.62 and a WHIP over 2.00. A nightmare.

    Finally making a move to help Jackson's future, it was then the Dodgers decided to demote Jackson back down to AA. He hadn't seen Jacksonville since leaving there in 2003 as a phenom. Now he was all-but-forgotten. In his first start at the lower level, Jackson allowed seven runs in five innings, serving up two home runs. After that point, Jackson settled down and things started to improve.

    In his next 57 innings, Jackson would have a 2.68 ERA. He allowed just 46 hits, struck out 41 (not great) and allowed 17 walks. Edwin was called up to the Majors towards the end of August after a hot streak in which he allowed just three earned runs in 22 innings. We were hoping the old Jackson, the first version, was back.

    I recently re-watched one of Jackson's better starts in the MLB of 2005, which of course isn't saying much. Against the Astros, he allowed six hits and three earned runs in 5.1 innings. But he struck out 6 hitters, at least.

    It seems now that what I saw in that August 27 start was not the same pitcher I had seen in the past. His fastball was really between 91 and 93, and Edwin could occassionally add a bit onto that. The control of the pitch seemed to vary, though I understand it's difficult given the good amount of movement it possesses. However, Jackson also has pretty noticeable mechanical problems, falling heavily to the first base side after pitching. His key pitch was his breaking ball that was quite successul. In fact, he didn't rely on this pitch enough, again showing an overdependency for the fastball. Jackson flashed a change up that wasn't very good, as each time the ball was left too high in the zone.

    So what's next for Jackson? The change of scenery should be good, mostly because he can start the season in AAA, in a more neutral environment. The key for the Devil Rays will be to try and get Jackson to gain more confidence in his breaking ball, and also learn to control his fastball better. He can pitch from just 91-93, that's fine, but to do so there must be some semblance of control. And most of all, Jackson needs to regain the confidence of his youth, to again show the smile on the mound that Jon Weisman referenced.

    We were wrong about Edwin Jackson, he wasn't a phenom. Let's just hope the Dodgers didn't prevent him from becoming anything at all.


    WTNYJanuary 14, 2006
    2006 WTNY 75: Mailbag
    By Bryan Smith

    Before starting today's mailbag, I thought we would recap, and go through the list that I counted down this week. Below are my top 75 prospects for 2006, in order. The players that are linked are the last players talked about in each article, if you'd like to back through.

    1. Delmon Young - OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    2. Jeremy Hermida - OF - Florida Marlins
    3. Brandon Wood - SS - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
    5. Francisco Liriano - LHP - Minnesota Twins
    6. Stephen Drew - SS - Arizona Diamondbacks
    7. Carlos Quentin - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
    8. Matt Cain - RHP - San Francisco Giants
    9. Andy Marte - 3B - Boston Red Sox
    10. Billy Butler - OF - Kansas City Royals
    11. Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
    12. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals
    13. Justin Verlander - RHP - Detroit Tigers
    14. Jon Lester - LHP - Boston Red Sox
    15. Alex Gordon - 3B - Kansas City Royals
    16. Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks
    17. Lastings Milledge - OF - New York Mets
    18. Ian Stewart - 3B - Colorado Rockies
    19. Felix Pie - OF - Chicago Cubs
    20. Scott Olsen - LHP - Florida Marlins
    21. Joel Guzman - SS/3B - Los Angeles Dodgers
    22. Jon Papelbon - RHP - Boston Red Sox
    23. Joel Zumaya - RHP - Detroit Tigers
    24. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C - Atlanta Braves
    25. Andy LaRoche - 3B - Los Angeles Dodgers
    26. Daric Barton - 1B - Oakland Athletics
    27. John Danks - LHP - Texas Rangers
    28. Yusmeiro Petit - RHP - Florida Marlins
    29. Chris Young - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
    30. Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles
    31. Anthony Reyes - RHP - St. Louis Cardinals
    32. Anibal Sanchez - RHP - Florida Marlins
    33. Brian Anderson - OF - Chicago White Sox
    34. Thomas Diamond - RHP - Texas Rangers
    35. Howie Kendrick - 2B - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    36. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins
    37. Russ Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers
    38. Jeremy Sowers - LHP - Cleveland Indians
    39. Adam Miller - RHP - Cleveland Indians
    40. Homer Bailey - RHP - Cincinnati Reds
    41. Adam Loewen - LHP - Baltimore Orioles
    42. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox
    43. Jeff Clement - C - Seattle Mariners
    44. Neil Walker - C - Pittsburgh Pirates
    45. Adam Jones - OF - Seattle Mariners
    46. Phil Hughes - RHP - New York Yankees
    47. Edison Volquez - RHP - Texas Rangers
    48. Hayden Penn - RHP - Baltimore Orioles
    49. Cole Hamels - LHP - Philadelphia Phillies
    50. Craig Hansen - RHP - Boston Red Sox
    51. Gio Gonzalez - LHP - Philadelphia Phillies
    52. Jason Kubel - OF/DH - Minnesota Twins
    53. Elijah Dukes - OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    54. Kendry Morales - 1B/OF - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    55. Troy Patton - LHP - Houston Astros
    56. Garrett Mock - RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks
    57. Eric Duncan - 1B - New York Yankees
    58. Javi Herrera - OF - Oakland Athletics
    59. Jeff Mathis - C - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    60. Scott Elbert - LHP - Los Angeles Dodgers
    61. Adam Lind - OF - Toronto Blue Jays
    62. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers
    63. Jeff Niemann - SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    64. Jonathan Broxton - RHP - Los Angeles Dodgers
    65. Dustin McGowan - RHP - Toronto Blue Jays
    66. Carlos Gonzales - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
    67. Asdrubal Cabrera - IF - Seattle Mariners
    68. Gaby Hernandez - RHP - Florida Marlins
    69. Jason Hirsh - RHP - Houston Astros
    70. Chuck James - LHP - Atlanta Braves
    71. Eddy Martinez-Esteve - OF/DH - San Francisco Giants
    72. Chuck Tiffany - LHP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    73. Fernando Nieve - SP - Houston Astros
    74. Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    75. Andre Ethier - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers

    HM. Elvis Andrus - SS - Atlanta Braves
    HM. Erick Aybar - 2B/SS - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
    HM. Wes Bankston - 1B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    HM. Josh Barfield - 2B - San Diego Padres
    HM. Ryan Braun - 3B - Milwaukee Brewers
    HM. Reid Brignac - SS - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    HM. Eric Campbell - 3B - Atlanta Braves
    HM. Cesar Carillo - RHP - San Diego Padres
    HM. Christian Garcia - RHP - New York Yankees
    HM. Justin Huber - 1B - Kansas City Royals
    HM. Matt Kemp - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
    HM. George Kottaras - C - San Diego Padres
    HM. Cameron Maybin - OF - Detroit Tigers
    HM. Andrew McCutchen - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
    HM. Miguel Montero - C - Arizona Diamondbacks
    HM. Matt Moses - 3B - Minnesota Twins
    HM. Dustin Nippert - RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks
    HM. Hunter Pence - OF - Houston Astros
    HM. Mark Rogers - RHP - Milwaukee Brewers
    HM. Ricky Romero - LHP - Toronto Blue Jays
    HM. Marcus Sanders - 2B - San Francisco Giants
    HM. Ryan Shealy - 1B - Colorado Rockies
    HM. Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies
    HM. Merkin Valdez - RHP - San Francisco Giants
    HM. Chris Volstad - RHP - Florida Marlins

    That's a lot to take in, I know. So, I thought it might be fun to look at the distribution per team. Please note that this is hardly an organizational ranking, as some teams who offered just one prospect to this top 100 might have a better system than one that offered three. But anyway, here is a look at the number of prospects that each team brought to the table. For those that had the same number (those in the 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 categories), I listed the team with the higher number of prospects first. A look:

    Team # Team #
    D-Backs 8 Brewers 3
    Dodgers 8 Rockies 3
    Marlins 7 Yankees 3
    Angels 6 Blue Jays 3
    D-Rays 6 Padres 3
    Red Sox 5 Indians 2
    Rangers 4 A's 2
    Giants 4 Phillies 2
    Braves 4 Pirates 2
    Astros 4 Nats 1
    Royals 3 Mets 1
    Tigers 3 Cubs 1
    Orioles 3 Cards 1
    Seattle 3 Chi Sox 1
    Twins 3 Reds 1

    One striking fact is how the rich got richer since last season ended, which tells a lot about how they value prospects. Of the nine players on the list that traded hands in the last three months, eight of them were acquired by one of the top six teams on this list. Four of them alone were Marlin acquisitions, as the team would have just had three (Hermida, Olsen, Volstad) prospects before.

    [Editor's Note: Since this article was written, the Dodgers traded Chuck Tiffany (with Edwin Jackson) to the Devil Rays for Danys Baez and Lance Carter. By shoring up their bullpen, they no longer have the top spot in the table. Everything in this piece is changed to reflect the trade.]

    Alright, without further ado, here's a look at the mailbag:

    What do you think was the biggest weakness in your list?
    --- Bryan Smith

    In the name of tradition, I wanted to start the WTNY mailbag with a question of my own. I like to be honest with you guys, and oftentimes, I realize mistakes when it is too late. Oftentimes, one of my readers calls me on it, and I kick myself for not having thought about it in more detail sooner. Specific rankings are always dancing around in my heads, but I thought there were two substantial problems with the list that I wish I could fix in hindsight:

    1. Ranking the draftees -- This was my first time doing it, and as a result, I was probably way too conservative. Twelve 2005 draftees made the list, but only five were in the top 75. While I think I was correct in my rankings of those within the top 75 (maybe Gordon over Zimmerman), three more players (Braun, Tulowitzki, Maybin) were probably deserving of spots. I'm just learning how to treat these players, however, so expect an improvement in next year's list.

    2. Hanley Ramirez -- One factor that separates a good prospect list from a bad one is the ability to trust yourself. I believe in the ranking of each player, and the perspective of outsiders has little influence. This was not true with the ranking of Ramirez. It was simply a case of me listening too much to his supporters, and not actually evaluating his candidacy like I did everyone else. As a result, he's vastly overrated, probably to the tune of about 20 spots. So please, if you show your friends this list, try to tone down my ranking of Hanley.

    There are other, smaller issues, but I wanted to get these out of the way first.

    If Justin Upton and Mike Pelfrey had signed before your list was compiled, where would they rank? What are your thoughts on each?
    --- A half-dozen readers

    Upton was the number one pick in the draft, in something of a consensus, so I have him ranked as that. Most scouts, writers and coaches have been awed by his skills, most of which are said to be better than his brother. I can't quantitatively speak of any of Upton's strengths, though we do now that he grades exceptionally in speed, arm strength and contact skills. His power is said to be raw, but with a lot of potential, and I haven't heard much regarding his discipline.

    Justin's one flaw is that he enters the minors with no real position. His struggles at shortstop have been described in numerous ways, even by attributing it to Steve Blass disease, and I'm not sure Arizona would be smart in having him play there. There has been talk of third base, second base and centerfield. To me, the last one is by far the best option. It's the least taxing position to learn, and given his arm strength and speed, the one he profiles best at.

    If I was ranking Upton today, I would give him the number four slot in my top ten. Brandon Wood still gets the nod, but Justin certainly ranks ahead of Fielder.

    As for Pelfrey, he's easier to speak about, as with him we have the numbers in front of us. Before the draft, I thought Pelfrey was its top talent, narrowly ahead of Luke Hochevar and Craig Hansen. His career at Wichita State had been fantastic, with 33 career wins, and an ERA that dropped in each season, culminating in a 1.93 ERA in his junior season. As we learned in Pelfrey's interview with Matthew Namee way back when, Mike throws three pitches, and all of them are pretty advanced.

    His fastball was up to hitting the mid 90s consistently in his junior season, and with it he brings great control. His strikeouts usually come via a power curve that is fantastic, and he also throws a change up. Mike had very few problems his junior season, and I expect his stuff to translate well at the pro level. Right now, his prospect status would be between #45 and 50, right ahead of Hansen.

    Aaron Hill wasn't expected to make the majors until this year - if he hadn't, about where would you see him on this list?
    --- Daniel

    Don't know how much of Yuniesky Betancourt (24 MLB) you've seen, but do you think he should just be a placeholder for Cabrera?
    --- Trev

    I put these two questions together because they both deal with sophomores. I'll have a whole article on the game's top sophomores as we inch closer to the season (as I did last year), but since you're asking, I might as well answer ahead of time.

    At the beginning of the season, the Blue Jays had thought third base was one of their deepest positions. They were fresh off signing Corey Koskie, and had former ROY Eric Hinske waiting in the wings should Koskie re-injure himself. He did, of course, and when Hinske wasn't there, the Blue Jays were left to turn to top prospect Aaron Hill. And considering the circumstances, Hill performed quite well, hitting .415 in his first month, and keeping it above .300 until August 15.

    With Orlando Hudson traded this winter, the Jays will be moving Hill from third to second, his third position in two seasons. Aaron won't be great at second I don't think -- surely a regression from Hudson -- but his bat will carry him. He hit 31 extra base hits in 361 at-bats, a very good ratio for a rookie. In addition, Hill showed fantastic contact skills (just 41 K), pretty good patience (34 walks), and showed a good read on left-handed pitching. His season numbers fell apart with his endurance, both of which should be rectified in 2006.

    I can say without doubt that Hill will make the top 20 sophomores list. Betancourt, I imagine, will be right on the bubble.

    From what I've seen, and even more so from what I've heard, Betancourt might be the best defensive shortstop in the league, right now. I saw a bit of it in the Futures Game, when Yuniesky's range took him past the second base bag from the shortstop position to make a play. He moves to hit left and right exceptionally, and has a rocket of an arm. In a just world, which we don't have, he'll win a Gold Glove next year.

    But the Mariners desire to bring up Betancourt's defense to the Major League level cost his bat some serious developmental time. Before being brought up to the Majors, Yuniesky had split time between AA and AAA, and hit about .283/.310/.425. He had walked just 17 times in those 410 at-bats, showing now patience. His only plus was striking out just 32 times, showing potential as a future member of OOPs.

    Yuniesky will have an empty batting average as a pro. His defense will make up for it. Asdrubal might as well move to second full-time in 2006.

    How can we not comment on Marte's "sample" numbers in the Majors? On a team that played 1,000 rookies, they wouldn't let Marte start when Chipper was hurt the second time over Wilson Betemit! In the same "sample" number of ABs, players like McCann, Francouer, and Cano were much better. We must question a prospect when a franchise like the Braves feels confident enough to trade him away for the likes of an Edgar Renteria.
    --- Kevin

    ...how can you justify putting Fielder 5 spots ahead of Marte when they had similar numbers last year (when you consider league and park effects), their similar age, (but most importantly) position difference. Marte is described as a future very good glove at 3B, whereas Fielder is poor at 1B. I'd put Marte ahead of Fielder at this point.
    --- John

    Again, I enjoy putting questions together. Here, I wanted to put an anti-Marte comment with a pro-Marte one. I think it makes a nice contrast.

    Answering Kevin's point first, I mentioned it was a sample size because his numbers really do have no statistical significance. Everyone of the players you mentioned performed better, true, but they all had more time to prove their worth. Andy was also on a start one day, off the next schedule, one in which it's hard to get going. But there is a comment to be made for his cup of coffee, as I am worried that Bobby Cox gave up on him so fast. If managers were candid, I'd love to know what Bobby saw that we aren't. There had to be something.

    John, you make a good point. But Fielder profiles to hit for more consistent power than Marte, and also has the potential to win a home run crown. As I said in my comment, not only is the ceiling there, but I truly believe it will happen. Andy will draw ahead of Prince by playing 3B, but Fielder should make up the difference in career home runs. Oh, and Andy has much higher bust potential.

    I know Brandon Wood will be in the top 10 and he should be, but at the beginning of the year Laroche was leading High A in homers and was having a heck of a first half, Wood was right behind him. The dodgers are known for moving up their prospects and Laroche was moved up to AA in a bigger park.

    Having said that, do you take those types of things into account when you make your list and analyze prospects against one another? I mean wouldn't Laroche been the homerun leader if he wouldve stayed in single A all year & wouldn't he have been the MOST talked about player if he wouldve played all year there?
    --- Erik

    Erik, great question. If LaRoche had stayed at Vero Beach, there's a chance he would have hit 40-45 home runs, and a chance he would have been named my minor league player of the year. I don't think there's a chance, however, he would have become one of the top five prospects in baseball.

    I disagreed with the decision to leave Brandon Wood at one level for the whole season, but we also have to remember he was just 20 years old. Staying at that level surely provides a confidence booster, as now Wood is known as the 100 XBH man. LaRoche is 21, was more advanced, and better off being challenged. Also, remember than in high-A, Andy wasn't walking, so we would also be talking about a third baseman with 40 walks.

    LaRoche's AA season actually gave me more confidence that he won't bust. He proved to have patience under pressure, and his power held up under a more difficult situation. His tools will not allow him to become a 40-HR talent in the pros, while Wood has better tools. Numbers can only go so far, as there is more involved in telling us what a player might profile to hit.

    Brandon is a shortstop who hit 100 extra-base hits at the age of 20. His power could be among the best at the SS position in the Majors. LaRoche had a very good minor league season, and will probably max out at being a 30-35 HR guy in the pros, par for the course at his position. There difference in ranking is right there.

    I am wondering where you see jeff Salazar of Rockies? He's like Barton -- early had great k/bb ratio -- but has not progressed like Barton. What is his offensive upside? Is he a major league starter? allstar? when?
    --- Shoedog

    It's too early to say that the sun is setting for Jeff Salazar, but it's certainly the afternoon. It now seems like every season the Rockies too aggressively promote the former Cowboy, and as a result, he struggles in each second half. This year it was even worse, as when Colorado pushed Salazar out of the Texas League, he wasn't even hitting well. The team would have been far better off in leaving him at the level for the whole season so they could see what they had in the former eighth round pick.

    What do they have? How about David DeJesus divided by ten. A left-handed hitter, Salazar's best strength is his patience with more than 70 walks in each of the last three years. His contact skills fell apart at the higher levels this year, and at a normal stadium, Salazar probably couldn't hit past .280 or .290. Who knows at Coors. What I do know is that his CF defense would never be a strength there, probably just a bit below average. In the end, Jeff is a pretty poor prospect who gained no consideration for this list. He might, one day, draw some consideration for a bench spot.

    Do you think Ian Kinsler should play SS and Young should move back to 2B? Most metrics (UZR) have Young as one of the worst defensive SS in the game. Or is Kinsler just as bad?
    --- Trev

    Trev, statistically, you probably are right that it would be the best solution. Young has pretty much no range at shortstop, and I've been told that Kinsler isn't bad there. The Rangers had originally drafted him for his defense, so he could probably be pretty average there. Young at second isn't so bad, so they probably save a few runs.

    But, realistically, I'm not sure it's worth the hassle. We're talking about moving two players who have already been moved once. In the same winter, in the span of a couple months. Sure, they both have experience at the past position, but the best option is probably to let them try and improve at their current position. Playing for ten and fifteen runs might look good on paper, but in the real world, it's not always the best.

    What causes Patton to fall from 46 to 55? I figured with much of the same stats after a promotion to FSL you'd probably rank him in the 25-40 range (which is where I would rank him).
    --- ultxmxpx

    I'm not sure Patton fell in my mind at all. Another thing I have to work on in the next year is creating more continuity between my midseason and end-of-year prospect lists. But Patton has stayed about the same since midseason. Remember that right now, there are four 2005 draftees that were added to the list ahead of them. Here's the list of players that were behind Patton at midseason, and have since moved in front of him: Anibal Sanchez, Nick Markakis, Adam Miller, Anthony Reyes, Chris Young, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Cole Hamels. All of these players but Hamels had second halves that reassured us of their good prospect status, and made it so their 2005 was not seen as a fluke in our mind. Patton was passed by a few people, but he hasn't gotten any worse as a prospect.

    Is it fair to say that Russ Martin's comp is Scott Hatteberg back when he was behind the dish for the Red Sox?
    --- Rob McMillan

    Rob, I think that if we compared Martin to Hatteberg, we would be selling him short. Don't let Moneyball fool you, Scott wasn't a great player. His career-high for home runs in a season was 15, and his OBP eclipsed .370 just twice. Not to mention, Hatteberg was piss-poor behind the dish, where the reports of Martin state that he is a plus back there. Russ' contact skills are a bit better than Hatteberg's, while his patience is much the same. His power potential is better, though not by too much, and he also is a plus behind the plate. A very rich man's Hatteberg, maybe.

    He probably doesn't belong on this list because of his age, but I'm wondering what you think of Josh Willingham. Sounds like he'll have the opportunity this year to make a splash. Olivo's bat's not likely to crowd him out.
    --- Mike

    Willingham was very close to making this list, and with more time in the PCL, he just might have. It's hard for me to speak of Josh's offensive ceiling, because we don't have a lot of data to base a prediction from. What we do now, however, if that Willingham has quite a bit of power potential and fantastic patience. His contact skills aren't great, and at best, he profiles to be a .280 hitter in the Majors. What will dictate what his career becomes, however, is whether Josh can stick behind the plate. I'm not sure he can, and I still believe he could end up a solid left fielder. The decision needs to be made soon. Splitting time between catching and left field -- with Olivo taking the rest -- might be the best option.

    Speaking of Rangers pitching prospects, what ever happened to John Hudgins? I assume you're no longer "borderline obsessed" with him.
    --- Trev

    No, Trev, sadly those days are gone. I'm no longer of the belief that Hudgins would fit perfectly in the back of a Major League rotation. But, I'm still clinging to the possibility that he *might*. It was a rough year for John, one in which he became far too hittable when reaching the AAA level. His control worsened, he struck out less people. The whole season was downhill. But I'm not going to close the book on the guy. At best, he's a durable right arm with good pitchability and three average pitches. The Rangers should teach him to throw a sinker more, like they have with a few success stories, and see what comes of it. I'd still give the guy a C+ if I was grading him, so I guess obsessions die slowly.

    ...was wondering whether you think Quentin's propensity to get hit by pitches makes him an injury risk at the MLB level--inquiring fantasy owners want to know!
    --- Marty

    Marty, good question. My guess is that he makes himself a bit more susceptible to freak injuries as a result of it. However, I decided to bring it up to Will Carroll, BP's injury guru, and he sent in this response:

    Well, there's certainly some risk, but like Biggio, it's a skill. If he hasn't been hurt so far, he's demonstrated that he can take it and while any one HBP could be the one to do damage, I'd actually say he's less risky. Practice makes perfect.

    If your league uses OBP, then Quentin's 'skill' certainly outweighs any freak injury chance. If it doesn't, then I don't know what to tell you. It's probably something I would ignore.

    That's all for today. I hope you all have enjoyed the prospect list this past week, as I definitely enjoyed writing it. Thanks are definitely in order to both Rich Lederer, Joe, Jay-Dell Mah, Kevin Goldstein and, of course, all the readers.

    WTNYJanuary 13, 2006
    The 2006 WTNY 10
    By Bryan Smith

    With this article, my 2006 prospect list is complete. Thanks to you, the readers, as this has been the most fulfilling of the three prospect lists I have now created. You all are the driving force behind my motivation, and I again thank you for your continued interest.

    To recap, here is a list of the articles in this series thus far:

    Part One (Honorable Mention)
    Part Two (75-51)
    Part Three (50-26)
    Part Four (25-11)

    Over the weekend, I will answer many of the questions that you guys have (and still will, hopefully) asked since the list began. Please check back for that, and for now, enjoy the list!

    10. Billy Butler - OF - Kansas City Royals - 20 (AA/AAA)

    Introduction: There is no question that many of you will quibble with the decision to name Billy Butler the Royals' top overall prospect over Alex Gordon. I understand such criticism, but what I can offer back is that I believe Butler's bat has more potential than any in the minor leagues, with maybe the exception of Brandon Wood. It's not often that a 19-year-old splits time between A+ and AA, and comes out the other side with 30 home runs. It's not often that he walks 49 times in the process, and hits .340. Forget the park factors involved in a place like High Desert, this just is not supposed to happen. I've compared his bat to Jim Thome in the past, also citing Carlos Lee. But it's quite possible I've undershot Butler, who has the potential to win a batting crown and home run title before it's all said and done.

    Skillset/Future: There is no way to hide Butler's weakness: defense. He started the year at third base, but given Mark Teahen's presence at the Major League level, the draft of Alex Gordon, and his small potential at third, the Royals thought it best to begin to move him in 2005. So, Butler moved to the outfield, where the results have been less than spectacular. However, Billy has the arm for left field, and if reports are correct, then he did improve late in the season. Time will tell if Butler's future is in left, at first or at the DH spot. While he is quite raw in the field, there is very little raw about his bat. Butler was very consistent at drawing walks in high-A, and while the skill faded a bit as he was promoted, it should be a strength at the Major League level. Also, his 98 strikeouts weren't too high, considering his peers, and Butler's contact skills allow him to consistently hit the ball on the nose. So much so, in fact, that he showed fantastic power in his first full pro season. His bat has it all. Butler isn't as sure a bet as a few other players on this list, but very few can match that ceiling. Alex Gordon can't, I know that.

    9. Andy Marte - 3B - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

    About one month ago, I looked at Andy Marte's "disappointing" season in detail. I put quotes around disappointing, because I am not one in that corner. There is no doubt that Marte didn't progress much this year, but he also wasn't horrible. People are too quick to judge him by his Major League stats (sample size!), Dominican Winter League stats (started very slow, came back strong), and a lack of a breakout season. However, my contention is that the only thing that was damaged this year was Andy's confidence. After struggling pretty bad in the Majors, he would go to struggle after being demoted. The first time, it resulted in a .196/.304/.340 stretch for nearly a month. The second time, it put considerable dead weight on his year-long DWL stats.

    If the Red Sox are serious about keeping Marte, they must do everything in their power to re-build his confidence. With Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and J.T. Snow in the fold, the team will be able to leave Andy in AAA for much of the season. He should start to hit confidently in Pawtucket, and begin to break out in the ways that we have been projecting for years. I made the comparison in the article linked above, and I will again: don't be shocked if, in the end, Andy Marte ends up as Paul Konerko with enough agility to stick at third.

    8. Matt Cain - SP - San Francisco Giants - 21 (MLB)

    Introduction: For much of Matt Cain's minor league career, he has been overshadowed by Felix Hernandez. A year younger, a better fastball and curveball and better control always gave King Felix the edge. Cain has always found himself in that next echelon, despite an absolutely dominating minor league campaign. If the lack of attention ever got to Cain, you can bet it was in the second half. Called up to the Giants days before September 1, the former first-round pick was able to make seven starts with the Giants organization. His results were fantastic with a 2.33 ERA and just 24 hits in 46.1 innings.

    Skillset/Future: However, a few of his other Major League peripherals were bothersome. First, it's hard not to cringe, when looking at his 0.51 G/F rate in the Majors, and he was only at 0.64 at AAA. However, for all those flyballs, he does not manage to give up very many home runs, a fact that will dictate the amount of future success he has. Cain also walked 19 batters in the Majors, while posting a career high 4.51 W/9 at AAA this year. It's likely that Cain's fastball added a bit of movement this season, and it will take him some time to get used to it. Matt pitches very, very heavily off his mid-90s fastball, and his ability to control that will determine if he becomes at ace in the Majors or not. His secondary offerings are solid, with a fantastic power breaking pitch and a change up that has come a long way in the last 2-3 years. Cain need not fight for a rotation spot during Spring Training, it should come guaranteed. If he stays in the SF pitcher's park, look for a legitimate NL Rookie of the Year contender.

    7. Carlos Quentin - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: The Diamondbacks took a risk in drafting Quentin in the first round, knowing that he had (or would need?) Tommy John surgery. The team rehabbed Quentin, who obviously missed out the 2003 season after which he was drafted. In 2004, Quentin didn't miss a beat, hitting a combined (about) .335/.435/.550 between the California and Texas Leagues. However, I worried that much of his on-base percentage was founded in being hit by 43 pitches. Some quick stat analysis allowed me to see a correlation between league and HBP, meaning he couldn't sustain such levels in the Majors. His contact and power skills were great, he had right field potential (not center), but the patience wasn't there.

    Skillset/Future: It is now. Quentin showed a fantastic skill in 2005, one in which he was able to actively learn and improve. After walking just 43 times in 2004, Quentin added nearly 30 walks to that total this past season. This kept his OBP high, as predictably, he was hit by only 29 pitches. I've now accepted he will be hit by a few in the Majors, but it's nice to have the ability to walk in nearly 13% of your plate appearances, too. At AAA, Quentin also continued to show his fantastic contact and power skills, while learning the nuances of right field. It's likely that if the Diamondbacks are out of things early, then they will start trading veterans (Shawn Green?) to clear spots for players like Quentin.

    6. Stephen Drew - SS - Arizona Diamondbacks - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: Stephen Drew might not need a spot cleared for him. According to some reports, Drew has the upper handle on the Arizona shortstop job out of Spring Training. My expectation is that Craig Counsell wins the job, and Drew adjusts to the minors a little more before being rushed. This is the right way to handle someone who just 12 months ago was likely not to sign, and 7 months ago was playing in the Independent League. Predictably, Drew dominated the league, and right before the deadline, signed with the Diamondbacks. Sent to the Cal League, he continued his great hitting and became one of the league's most dangerous threats. However, things stalled in AA when Drew was met with some bad BABIP luck (.241) and some, finally, stiff competition.

    Skillset/Future: So much for being rusty. After not playing competitive baseball in nearly a whole calendar year, Drew managed to jump right back into the thick of things. His patience is, like his brother, fantastic, and Drew has pretty fantastic power for a middle infielder. I don't think he will hit for 30 HR in a season, but about 20-25 with 30+ doubles would do Arizona quite well. At short, there are no longer expectations that Drew will have to move, and there should be little pressure from those around him in the system. Stephen's biggest pro problems have been contact issues, which were far more prevalent in AA than the Cal League. His potential is that of a .300 hitter, however, so it should work itself out. Look for Drew to be on more than one All-Star team before it's all said and done.


    5. Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins - 22 (MLB)

    Introduction: It's no secret that Brian Sabean does not have the foresight of some General Managers. While one of the best in the Majors at his job, Sabean makes short-sighted decisions that include handing away draft picks and trading a lot of pitching prospects. In the past, Sabean has given away a large number of pitching prospects in the White flag deal, a Sidney Ponson trade, and most famously, an A.J. Pierzynski trade. Joe Nathan quickly became the Minnesota closer and made the deal famous, however, it was a hard-throwing southpaw with arm problems that was Terry Ryan's best haul. Liriano is now another data point in proving that it takes two years to heal from arm surgery, as he was back to full strength this season. How full? How about this, in fifteen starts in 2006, Liriano struck out eight or more batters. He also reached the double-digit mark it ground outs in four of his starts. Liriano, after dealing with a high .311 BABIP in the Eastern League, sunk to .240 at AAA. Given those extremes, his real performance is probably somewhere in the middle.

    Skillset/Future: After the Futures Game, I filed this report on Francisco:

    True to form, Liriano threw just one pitch under 85 mph (and 84 at that), and two fastballs under 96. Also validating his scouting report, half of Liriano's pitches were balls. This guy should be in Minnesota's bullpen at the end of the season, as very few southpaws even in the Majors can throw 89 mph sliders

    Everything that Liriano throws, he pitches hard. His fastball was from 94-98, with good life and solid control. His slider is the best left-handed pitch in the game, an 86-89 weapon that dives in the zone and creates most of his strikeouts. And finally, Liriano mixes in an 84-85 mph change up that is just enough velocity off his fastball to be effective. Francisco has the complete package, and only struggles when he is letting balls out of the park. With more experience, this should begin to happen less, and soon in Minnesota, we will see the best 1-2 southpaw punch in quite some time.

    4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers - 22 (MLB)

    Introduction: During the first two or three weeks of Spring Training, few players created more buzz than Prince Fielder. If memory serves me correctly, Fielder had all of his three Spring home runs occur in the first four games. Then, he cooled. Apparently, his slump extended from Spring Training until May 7. At that point in the regular season, Fielder had just two home runs, and was riding a 28-game homerless streak. His batting line was .245/.333/.330. Then, things began to turn around. In Prince's last 272 at-bats, he would hit 26 home runs with a line of .309/.387/.662. It was this finish that convinced Milwaukee that their best future included Prince Fielder at first and the bounties of a Lyle Overbay trade, rather than the other way around.

    Skillset/Future: I have Fielder on this list because I think he will one day win a home run title. Maybe more than one. As a Cub fan, it kills me that for (likely) the next 15 years, I will have to deal with playing against the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Soon, you will know those two as the most powerful hitters in the NL. However, Prince isn't an absolute complete hitter, as his contact skills are a bit lacking. He should strike out about 120 times a season, and if I'm guessing correctly, probably have one pretty bad slump (though not 30-game .633 OPS bad) per season. But Prince has great patience, and as a result, manages to keep his batting average pretty high. At first, he's far more athletic than his Dad ever dreamed of, and won't hurt Milwaukee there. For what it's worth, Fielder is my preseason pick for 2006 Rookie of the Year, even if he starts out a bit slow.

    3. Brandon Wood - SS - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 21 (AA)

    The breakout player of the 2005 season, the player of the year during the 2005 season. Add together all the baseball that Wood played in 2005 (A+, AAA, AFL, World Cup), and he hit 121 extra-base hits (58 HR!) in 689 at-bats. He hit a combined .316. And throughout all of it, Brandon was simply baseball's answer to the Energizer Bunny, with very few slumps lasting longer than a few days. A former-first round pick, Wood had an unimpressive full season debut in 2004 while playing in the Midwest League. In a year his power has blossomed, and Wood's potential has shot through the roof. And did we mention that he did this at age 20, up the middle?

    If Brandon Wood is able to stay at short, which will depend on a number of factors, his value is unlimited. However, this ranking would be the same, most likely, if Wood moved to third tomorrow. Why? We haven't seen this much power potential in the minor leagues...ever. 58 home runs in less than 700 at-bats? C'mon. Forget his iffy contact skills, and the good hitter's park and league he played in during the 2005 season. He's for real. Brandon has legit 40 HR potential, and if he can continue to walk, should be a truly dangerous player. Here's to hoping the Angels leave him at shorstop, where his defense is about average (a little above, probably), so that Wood is the next great fantasy baseball player.

    2. Jeremy Hermida - OF - Florida Marlins - 22 (MLB)

    Introduction: To a greater degree, you've seen this before. Your patient, left-handed hitting Georgian outfield has a cup of coffee that won't soon be forgotten. In Hermida's case, it was from hitting four home runs in 41 at-bats, including even having a flair for the dramatic. In 1998, it was five home runs in 36 at-bats, not to mention 15 hits. Back then, J.D. Drew was the next Mickey Mantle, the next Hall of Famer. Since then, Drew has had a career mixed with stardom, inconsistency and injury. Hermida's hoping to go 1-for-3.

    Skillset/Future: Jeremy doesn't quite have the tools that Drew had after winning the Golden Spikes at FSU, but he certainly has the potential to exceed the career J.D. has had. At 6-4, 200 pounds, Hermida has room to add pretty significant power. He just turned that corner in 2005, hitting 22 home runs after belting out just 16 previously. In addition to the budding power, Hermida adds the minor league's best (bar none) batting eye: 117 walks. He's a very smart player that plays good outfield defense and is fantastic on the bases, stealing 67 bases at an 87% clip in his minor league career. The one concern with Hermida, like with Drew, will be his contact skills. He'll strike out more than 100 times annually in the Majors, and as a result, should see his average sit around .280-.290. But given everything else he brings to the table, this won't be a problem. In 2006, look for Jeremy to surpass the .242/.340/.424 line that Drew put up as a rookie. He might just win the Rookie of the Year while he's at it.

    1. Delmon Young - OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 20 (MLB)

    No surprise here. While I love Hermida and Wood, neither is particularly close to Young's level as a prospect, in my opinion. I mean, this is the guy that I chose first last year over Felix Hernandez. My support is unwavering. And Delmon has surely done nothing to make me look stupid.

    It would have been difficult for Delmon's 2005 season to look more impressive. Tampa decided to see what the former top pick was made of, allowing him to skip the California Legaue and go straight to AA. He proved ready for it, succeeding in all facets of the game. He showed immense power in a pitcher's league, didn't strike out too much and walked at a reasonable level. He continued to steal bases and show perennial Gold Glove-caliber defense in right field.

    By the end of the season, Delmon was a 19-year-old hitter playing in AAA. While it's difficult enough to ask this of pitchers, it's insane to do so from hitters, who have to come to the park ready day in and day out. As a result, Young struggled in AAA, drawing only 4 walks in about 235 plate appearances. Yes, that number still makes my jaw drop, as well. But plate discipline has never been a significant problem for Young, and when he returns to the level in 2006, expect a lot more walks.

    A quick run-down of the six tools: Contact? Check, lifetime .317 hitter that struck out in just 17.7% of his at-bats, and just 14.4% after being promoted. Power? Oh, c'mon, check. Has more than 50 home runs in the minors before turning 20, and has the potential to hit for 30 or 40 annually in the Majors. Discipline? Well, this is the question mark. It's been acceptable in the past, and then fell apart late in the year. No check yet, but I bet it's coming. Baserunning? Check, over 75% for his career, and was 25/33 in a half-season at AA. Arm? Check from everyone I've ever talked to. Strong and accurate, a weapon. Range? Not the best in the minors, but hardly a problem, check.

    Number one prospect, two years running? Check.

    * * * * *

    Note: This list was created before Justin Upton and Mike Pelfrey signed contracts. I will deal with both players in my weekend mailbag, so please check back then.

    Over next weekend I'm hoping to do a mailbag article, so if you guys have any questions, please drop them in the comments below. Those that I don't answer right away should get responded to in a separate article on Saturday.

    WTNYJanuary 12, 2006
    2006 WTNY 75: 25-11
    By Bryan Smith

    Today begins the final descent of my 2006 prospect list, as we begin to detail the best 25 prospects in the game. Today I'll go to number 11, and then tomorrow I will look at the WTNY 10. So far, here's a look at the other entries:

    Part One (Honorable Mention)
    Part Two (75-51)
    Part Three (50-26)

    Remember, the age and level listed are correct for 2006, and each player's name is linked to his minor league track record. Enjoy the list, and as always, please leave your comments at the end!

    25. Andy LaRoche - 3B - Los Angeles Dodgers - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: Before the 2005 season, I picked Andy LaRoche as one of my breakout prospects. In his comment, I mentioned that once his average caught up with his power, he would take off. You see, I had noticed that in 2004, LaRoche was very unlucky, posting a BABIP of .281 in the South Atlantic League and then .247 in the FSL. This, in my opinion, had been far more of a fluke than the other way around. This theory proved true in 2005, as LaRoche's BABIP normalized, and his average went up. In the FSL this past season, LaRoche's BABIP was about .320, followed by about .315 after being promoted. So, if I stick with the theory, LaRoche is better than the player he was in 2004, but not quite the player he was last season. We'll see what 2005 provides.

    Skillset/Future: If LaRoche puts all the skills he has shown together at one time, he has superstar potential. His calling card is certainly power, which was certainly enhanced by the FSL's easiest hitter's park: Vero Beach. However, at the Major League level, LaRoche should be hitting 25 homers annually. His contact skills have worsened in each of the past two seasons after a promotion, indicating each time, he's been a bit over his head. However, Andy showed better patience at AA when he struggled, a sign of a very smart hitter. At third, Andy isn't anything great, but his arm is certainly enough for the position, and his range will do. Note: There were few decisions more difficult for me than Barton v. LaRoche.

    24. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C - Atlanta Braves - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: An honorable mention last season, I'm still kicking myself for not including him on my breakout list. Like Brandon Wood and Adam Jones did in the Midwest League, I neglected to see potential in an average low-A line from a teenager at a skill position. These are mistakes we shouldn't make. But anyway, it was still difficult to see Salty showing any power at Myrtle Beach, one of the minors' most favorable parks for pitchers. And it certainly wasn't easy for Salty, who had drastic home/away splits, and saw a lot of potential home runs fall in the gap. However, I'm not quite sure when this problem will be rectified, as Atlanta has pitcher's parks from Rome (low-A) to Turner Field.

    Skillset/Future: For a catcher, Salty has fantastic power. His .205 Isolated Power in 2005 is just a taste of what he could provide at the Major League level, in which he should be good for nearly 30 home runs per year. However, while his power was better than his numbers suggested, his batting average is worse. There is little chance that Jarrod continues to hit much above .300 without striking out less, as his BABIP was .362 in 2005. Given pretty fantastic patience for someone his age, this won't be too bad of a problem, as he can still hit about .280/.360/.540 in the Majors. Not a great catcher, Jarrod shouldn't have to move from behind the plate, assuming his skills moderately progress in the coming years.

    23. Joel Zumaya - SP - Detroit Tigers - 21 (AAA)

    Introduction: While at the Futures Game in Detroit this past season, I made a comparison between Zumaya and the 2004 breakout player: Jose Capellan. Jose's big fastball took him from a 3.80 ERA in low-A in 2003 to a four-stop, fantastic trip through the Atlanta system in 2004. He took a poor SAL K/9 and turned it into 156 strikeouts the next season. Zumaya was much the same, rising to AAA last year after having posted a 4.36 FSL ERA in 2004. His K/9 rose by nearly 3.5 from one year to the next. Buzz was throughout the organization about his big fastball. We can only hope this is where Zumaya and Capellan cross paths for good.

    Skillset/Future: In the 2004 Futures Game, Jose Capellan made noise with that fantastic fastball, but didn't show more than 2-3 curveballs in his whole inning. He had fallen in love with his heater, and while it was heavy, it was simply not enough. The Brewers, who acquired Capellan over the winter, were forced into converting him into relief. In the '05 All-Star contest, Zumaya consistently hit 99 on the gun, but threw his fastball in 11 of his 12 pitches. His curveball, the twelfth pitch he threw, was quite good, but it appears Joel does not trust that or the change up he rarely throws. To avoid a future in relief, and to maximize his potential, Zumaya must gain confidence in his secondary offerings.

    22. Jon Papelbon - SP/RP - Boston Red Sox - 25 (MLB)

    Introduction: In November of 2004, I predicted that Jon Papelbon and Jon Lester would, in one year's time, be "one of the 3 best 1-2 pitching prospect tandems in the minor leagues." I was wrong. They are the best. Detroit, Texas, Florida, Los Angeles and others have good combinations, but none match the prospect status of Papelbon and Lester. Papelbon's big breakout ended in a trip to the Majors, where he went back to his college role, helping out in the Red Sox depleted bullpen. After giving up four earned runs in his first three appearances, Papelbon would settle and get used to the role, allowing just 2 ER in his last 14 innings.

    Skillset/Future: The Red Sox are now left with the difficult decision of what to do with Jon Papelbon. It seems as if the team will again start by trying him in the rotation, and if he labors (or the team really needs a reliever) he will move to the bullpen. This is probably the best philosophy, though I don't think that move to the 'pen will have to happen. Papelbon can throw five different pitches, and has found much success (especially against left-handers) with a splitter learned from Curt Schilling. His fastball (92-95 mph) has great control, and Jon also offers a nasty slider. Those three pitches comprise most of what he throws, though he can also offer another breaking pitch and a change up. This guy is nasty, and if his control returns to the levels it was in the minors, don't forget about him in the AL Rookie of the Year race.

    21. Joel Guzman - SS/3B - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (AAA)

    Introduction: Speaking of a player trapped between two roles, we find Joel Guzman as one of the big question marks of one of baseball's best farm systems. I was not impressed with the reluctance of the old Dodger regime to decide on a position for Guzman, first keeping him at short, and then in 2005, bouncing him between the middle of the field and the hot corner. It's agreed among most scouts that Guzman's frame -- over 75 inches tall -- will not allow a long career at shortstop. The Dodgers recent signing of Rafael Furcal indicates that Ned Colletti's staff agrees with this assessment. However, at third base, Guzman is sandwiched between LaRoche and Bill Mueller. What's the best choice? Count me as a voter in the corner outfield category.

    Skillset/Future: Guzman is one of the few minor leaguers who could move from the middle infield to a corner outfield spot, and still be above-average offensively. The former big bonus baby has showed massive power in the last two seasons, hitting a combined 116 extra-base hits in just 953 at-bats. This is a fantastic ratio, and as he builds more muscle, Joel should also see more of his long hits clear the fence. Besides maintaining power, Guzman did step back considerably when hitting AA. His contact skills took a giant step back, and a .365 BABIP indicates his future may be living around the .260s in terms of batting average. However, Joel has also begun to walk more, collecting a career-high 42 walks last year. If the DePo-less Dodgers continue to preach this philosophy, Guzman's power and patience should make up for substantial contact problems.

    20. Scott Olsen - SP - Florida Marlins - 22 (AAA/MLB)

    Introduction: The Marlins have added a lot of minor league prospects this winter as a result of their firesale. However, despite adding three top 40 talents, their top two remains in tact. Second on the Florida prospect list is Scott Olsen, one of the obvious steals of the 2002 draft. For his first three seasons in the Florida organization, Olsen kept his ERA between 2.80 and 3.00. He broke that tradition in 2005 with a 3.92 ERA in AA. While that generally would indicate a regression, Olsen both lowered his walk rate and struck out hitters at a better rate. There are a lot of good southpaws in the Marlin organization, but in five years, we could be saying that Olsen is the best.

    Skillset/Future: Looking at Olsen's peripherals in the last four years is very interesting. While both his strikeouts and walks have improved, in each season, Scott's hit and home run rates have increased. How can a prospect's stuff obviously improve, yet he seemingly becomes easier to hit? As a guess, I will infer that Olsen is a master at pitching late in the count, mixing in his Major League caliber slider with a very good change up. However, early in the count, batters have probably found a lot of Olsen's favorite pitch: a mid 90s fastball that few southpaws can match. No matter what the problem has been, I would think it's a correctable one, though the HR/9 issue is a scary one. Florida will throw their next phenom into the fire this season, and his H/9 and HR/9 should go far in telling us what his future might look like. Elbow inflammation ended his season, so as with every pitching prospect, treat his stock carefully.

    19. Felix Pie - OF - Chicago Cubs - 21 (AAA)

    For years, we had been waiting for Pie to turn the corner and begin to turn his tools into skills. 2005 was the year. Playing in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, Pie started the season fantastically, hitting for power in the first time in his career. While Felix was still not walking often, striking out a lot and not running well on the bases, his key weakness (power) had been righted. By mid-June, the Cubs were looking for a new center fielder, as Corey Patterson's struggles continued. Weeks before the organization planned to call up their phenom, he hurt his ankle, and would not play again all year. Patterson is a good example of a leg injury halting progress, so the Cubs have their fingers crossed that Pie returns with the same power in 2006. And with it, maybe, some further refinement across the board?

    18. Ian Stewart - 3B - Colorado Rockies - 21 (AA)

    Ian Stewart's drop in the rankings from last year do not reflect a regression in my mind as much as they do that he was passed by others. He didn't really regress, in my thinking. Sure, his first month was bad, but it was coming off some bad hamstring problems. On June 1, Stewart was hitting .212/.292/.339, having struck out 14 more times than he had collected a hit. However, Stewart would finish the season with the numbers we expected: .297/.378/.555. His contact rate was a more reasonable 23.3%, and Ian crept back into my top 20. A healthy Stewart is a very dangerous hitter, one with immense (and consistent) power and good patience (nearly in 12% of his PA). His defense is fine at the hot corner, and as long as his contact rate remains average, he should be one of the best hitters Coors has seen. But before he returns to being a five-star, elite prospect, he needs to show us that I'm right: his regression in numbers was simply injury-related.

    17. Lastings Milledge - OF - New York Mets - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: In retrospect, 2004 should be referred to as the year of the Sally League. Delmon Young and Ian Stewart would dominate the league, fighting all year long for rights to the MVP trophy. This allowed Lastings Milledge to draw less publicity than someone with his skillset usually might, as he hit .337/.399/.579. This season, Lastings saw a decrease in power, but was far more consistent across the board, and received rave reviews. There is no better five-tool talent in the game.

    Skillset/Future: For this, I'm simply going to quote myself in an interview with Ricardo Gonzalez at Metsgeek:

    If maturity or injury issues don't hold him back, Lastings has future All-Star written all over him. People need to stop worrying about his power, his baserunning, or the Mets aggressive promoting. Instead, we need to look no further than Felix Pie, and realize that eventually, doubles turn into homers, teenage speedsters become good baserunners, and the great talents can handle even the highest levels.

    16. Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks - 24 (MLB)

    Introduction: If I've already accepted that Howie Kendrick has the minors' best contact skills, than Conor Jackson is undoubtedly in second place. A former first-round pick from California, Jackson now has just 156 career strikeouts in 1159 total at-bats. Mind you that 85 of those at-bats came at the Major League level this year, in which Jackson got his first cup of coffee. However, the July experiment to implement him in the lineup proved to be a failure, as Jackson mixed bad BABIP luck (.205) with a lack of power. Considering how good Tony Clark was playing, the team sent Jackson back down to the minors, promising to give him another shot in 2006.

    Skillset/Future: Jackson's contact skills make him the player he is, and as a result, will rely heavily on a good BABIP. However, when the batting average isn't treating him well, look for Conor to start drawing walks to keep his OBP high. Few minor leaguers have a better batting eye. But the real worry with Jackson is not his OBP, but his slugging, especially since moving to the first base position. Jackson has just 33 home runs since becoming a pro player, spanning about two Major League seasons. At that rate, he'll have to hit a lot of doubles and draw a ton of walks. That's a lot of pressure. However, I eventually expect him to succeed if not in 2006, as Clark will suck out more than a few at-bats.

    15. Alex Gordon - 3B - Kansas City Royals - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: Darin Erstad was made the first choice out of Nebraska after rewriting the University of Nebraska record books. About ten years later, the Cornhuskers again offered a top-five talent to the draft, and one who had topped Erstad's marks. Alex Gordon, the 2005 Golden Spikes Winner, was drafted second overall by the Royals, signing just in time to make the Arizona Fall League. Scouts were blown away by Gordon's bat in the short time that he was in the league, despite a good number of struggles. The organization has decided to keep him at third for now, but a later positional switch to the outfield or first base is not out of the question.

    Skillset/Future: On draft day, my partner Rich Lederer compared Gordon's bat to Hank Blalock. In fact, it's likely that Lederer is even selling Gordon short with the comparison, as he profiles to have even better power. Alex's patience should be impressive, as well, as he walked 12 times in about 65 AFL plate appearances. The only two worries surrounding Gordon are contact and defense. The latter should take care of itself, but the real question is whether Gordon can be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Given his power and patience, there could be far worse things to have question marks about.

    14. Jon Lester - SP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: My favorite prospect in the minors, Lester more than validated the confidence I had in him in 2005. Once coveted for Randy Johnson, the Red Sox refused to trade him, and for good reason. Lester would be the Eastern League's best pitcher in 2005, as the Red Sox were conservative with him, placing him on a pitch count and refusing to move him up a level. With no pressing needs at the Major League level, Lester was best in further honing his skills in the minors. Having turned 22 on Saturday, Jon will not be kept from the Majors much longer. Look for the team to bring him up sometime early in the midseason, when their schedule is soft and he can be broken in easily.

    Skillset/Future: Lester profiles to be a #2 pitcher at the pro level. Like Papelbon, the Red Sox had him working on a new pitch in 2005, with Lester trying to develop a cutter. The results were successful, as Jon continued to improve against right-handed batters. In addition to the cutter, Lester throws a fastball with great movement up into the mid 90s, and a good change up and curveball. This season, he started to draw comparisons to Andy Pettite, which certainly isn't the worst thing in the world. His control is inconsistent, but if offered, could be a weapon. Lester is so close to being Major League quality, the Red Sox could trade both David Wells and Matt Clement, and their rotation could improve.

    13. Justin Verlander - SP - Detroit Tigers - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: The best pick of the 2004 draft in hindsight, though I'm not sure many would have guessed it on draft day. Verlander had a fantastic 2005 season, pitching at three different levels, including the Majors. Justin was also given the honor of starting the hometown Futures Game, in which he flashed a 95-98 mph fastball and spike high 70s curve. After nearly not signing with the organization, Verlander is the Tigers best prospect, and if his injuries have subsided, should join the Major League rotation full-time very soon.

    Skillset/Future: On the mound, Verlander offers it all. His 6-5 frame is a fantastic pitcher's body, and provides the tilt that his great fastball provides. His power curve is also quite possibly the minors best, and was the driving force behind his dominance in the Florida State League. Justin also offers a show-me change up, but given his two-pitch arsenal, he barely needs it. Verlander's arm tired at the end of the longest season of his life, causing the Tigers to have to put him on the DL. The organization must approach Justin with caution, but once the reins come off, look for the Old Dominion record holder to do some great things.

    12. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals - 21 (MLB)

    Bar none, the most impressive debut of any 2005 draftee. The Nats top five hometown selection began his pro career in low-A, but quickly made it known he was best suited for AA. After a slow start in Harrisburg, Zimmerman got it going quickly (while re-learning the shortstop position) and was summoned to the Major Leagues. Zimmerman impressed in 20 games about as much as a prospect could, hitting .397 and showing Gold Glove defense at third, and above-average defense at shortstop. He showed gap power and makings of fantastic contact skills. My concerns regarding Zimmerman is not necessarily that he won't hit for power, or that his 2005 was a fluke, but that he doesn't walk. He is really in danger of becoming a Gold Glove third baseman with an empty batting average.

    11. Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (AAA)

    Introduction: Sometimes, there are some statistics I don't know what to make of. Oftentimes, I've talked about how misleading pitching statistics are, and have thrown out bad starts to make a case for a pitcher. Chad Billingsley is the type of pitcher that applies for, as he had three starts between May 3 and June 19 that tarnished his season statistics. What really trips me out, however: each start was against the same team, Delmon Young's Montgomery Biscuits. Anyway, during those three starts, Billingsley allowed 23 hits, 5 home runs and 19 earned runs in 10.2 innings. In his other 25 appearances, Billingsley had a 2.53 ERA and a staggering 6.18 H/9. Suddenly, his stats look a bit more impressive, no?

    Skillset/Future: For the first time in two years, I'm going to back off my comparisons between Billingsley and Kerry Wood. We always accepted that Billingsley didn't quite have Wood's stuff, but he had a far cleaner delivery, and as a result, was far less of an injury risk. This season, he also proved that his mechanics will yield for more control, as Billingsley's non-Montgomery BB/9 was 2.93. Impressed? You should be. And mind you, when I say that he doesn't have Wood's stuff, this is not an insult. Billingsley can bring his fastball up to 97 mph, and he has one of the minors best sliders. Add in an above-average curveball and change up, and you have one of the five best pitching prospects in the minors.

    Over next weekend I'm hoping to do a mailbag article, so if you guys have any questions, please drop them in the comments below. Those that I don't answer right away should get responded to in a separate article on Saturday.

    WTNYJanuary 11, 2006
    2006 WTNY 75: 50-26
    By Bryan Smith

    Today we continue our countdown of the game's best prospects, going through the next 25 players on my list. So far, I've named 25 honorable mentions and listed #75-51. When we're finished today, it will just leave the twenty-five best prospects in the game. Please feel free to leave comments at the bottom, and remember, the age and level listed are for 2006.

    Enjoy!

    50. Craig Hansen - RP - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: Few statements represent the massive ideological change that baseball has undergone in the past 50 years as this: Craig Hansen was heavily considered to be drafted first overall. A reliever. Obviously, no position has undergone a change in such a period as the relief position. Closers are extremely valuable commodities, so much so, that first round picks are now being used on them. We've seen Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Huston Street all picked in the first round. Derrick Lutz and others will do so in the 2006 draft. 2005's best talent was Craig Hansen, who may have the best stuff of any college closer. While Hansen's level of competition wasn't super-high, there was not a more dominating force in college baseball last year.

    Skillset/Future: Many have called for the Red Sox to move Hansen back to starting, but I'm not sure this is the best move. How will his stuff hold up for 200 innings? In about 80 innings per year, Hansen has a slider that is unparalleled in the minors. It hits the high-80s consistently, and at times, touches the low 90s. His fastball is about 95-98 mph, and he has very good control of the pitch. Craig does not allow home runs, walk too many batters, or give up very many hits. The Red Sox will make him their closer within two years, and he should succeeding pitching on one of baseball's biggest stages.

    49. Cole Hamels - SP - Philadelphia Phillies -- 22 (AA)

    Introduction: So much talent, but it should be no surprise that I have far less faith in Hamels harnessing his ability than most people. This is a guy who hasn't been truly healthy, it seems, since high school. He missed much of the beginning of 2005 after getting in a fight outside of a Florida bar. In three years within the Philadelphia organization, Hamels has logged just 28 starts. Yet this team remains convinced that his future will turn out better than Gavin Floyd's has. I'm not sure if there is a correlation between Hamels injuries, but the Phillies must figure it out, quick. This left arm is too good to not succeed.

    Skillset/Future: Since being drafted out of high school, there has been a universal agreement on his delivery: near perfect. So, it's hard (like Mark Prior, in a sense) to blame Hamels string of injuries on anything mechanical. Cole is most well-known for having one of the best change ups in the minor leagues, and it was back in true form this season. However, we also saw some control problems, likely due to rust more than anything else. In addition to his great change up, Hamels offers a low-90s fastball and an above-average breaking ball. The trio of pitches give Hamels great potential, but with this arm, we all know that it means only so much.

    48. Hayden Penn - SP - Baltimore Orioles - 21 (AAA)

    Introduction: Looking at his year in retrospect makes me dizzy. In the beginning of the season, he was the Eastern League's best pitcher, and started to fly up prospect lists like no other prospect. However, immediately following that, Penn developed dead arm, and was nearly simultaneously promoted to the Majors. This resulted in eight very poor starts, when Penn was sent back to Bowie. He continued to pitch badly, likely due to the dead arm, until the month of August. For the rest of the season, he was back as one of the minors best pitchers. Very few pitchers were as inconsistent as Penn this year, but assuming dead arm only strikes once, he could really turn a corner next year.

    Skillset/Future: Leo Mazzone will be thrilled to see that Penn has such good command of his pitches this year. His best pitch is a low 90s fastball with good life that Penn can throw in any spot. Under Mazzone, expect it to be tossed on the inside half more in 2006. Penn's secondary stuff is OK, highlighted by a good change-up that was praised during Hayden's poor Major League debut. To really succeed in the Majors, however, Penn must show a better breaking pitch than what he had in the Majors. Whether or not Mazzone can help him with this will likely determine whether he sits in the back end of various Major League and AAA rotations or whether he becomes a solid #2/3 starter.

    47. Edison Volquez - SP - Texas Rangers - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: If you ask me, Casey Janssen (who is one of a few Blue Jay pitchers to just miss this list) had the quietest 2.18 ERA season in recent memory. At the same time, Edison Volquez had one really, really loud 4.10 ERA season. Volquez is often talked about as if he has already broken out, as if he's one of the best pitching prospects in the game. But this has always confused me. If he has such good pitchability, why the career 3.99 ERA? If his stuff is so good, why a K/9 of just 8.43?

    Skillset/Future: However, I do think there is something to get excited about in Volquez. This is a guy that threw in the mid 90s, heavy fastball at the Futures Game, also showing one of the game's best change ups. His slider is a work in progress, though I was more impressed than most reports show while in Detroit. The key for Edison is that despite great stuff, he also has great control. Besides a poor debut at the Major League level, Volquez has not topped a 1.30 WHIP at any level. There is pitchability inside that body, I'm convinced. In 2006, he has to prove it with results, not with velocity.

    46. Phil Hughes - SP - New York Yankees - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: If not for a hint of arm injury at the end of the season, Hughes could be 10-15 spots higher on this list. No prep pitcher from the 2004 draft has impressed me more. However, as I mentioned, towards the end of the season, Hughes had a bout with shoulder inflammation. Combine that with a broken toe suffered in August, and Hughes' debut full season was ended shortly. The toe is not a concern, but the shoulder is, as Phil has many wondering if inflammation is hiding (or will lead to) a tear. Torn labrums are currently the worst injury a baseball player can sustain, so until Hughes proves he's past this, I will stay conservative with his ranking.

    Skillset/Future: Dazzling array of pitches, delivery and control. First and foremost, the Californian has a big pitcher's frame that should only add more velocity over time. Right now, his fastball consistently sits in the low 90s, but we can maybe expect two or three more ticks soon. The key, however, is that Hughes has such good control with the pitch, only walking 20 hitters in 90.1 career innings. Conversely, he strikes out hitters at a pretty fantastic rate, notching 93 in 86.1 innings this year. This is due to a good combination of secondary pitches, namely one of the Sally League's best curveballs. If Hughes can stay out of injury, and further refine pitches three and four (change and slider, respectively), he could be one of the best pitchers on this list. If he makes it through one healthy season, my expectations (and ranking) will soar.

    45. Adam Jones - CF - Seattle Mariners - 20 (AAA)

    Introduction: When I think of Jones, I'm reminded of two players that I picked to break out this year: Reid Brignac and Mark Trumbo. The latter is an Angel that was given a bat at the pro level, despite being able to hit 90+ on the mound. Jones was in this same situation out of high school, drafted in the first round, and then surprisingly made a full-time shortstop. And like Reid Brignac, with high expectations, Jones was just OK in the Midwest League in 2004. Like many teenagers at the level, he wasn't great, but his bat showed promise for what 2005 would bring. Just like that, everything started to click for Jones, who would finish the season with an .800+ OPS in AA at the age of 19.

    Skillset/Future: The big news of the offseason for Jones is that in 2006, he will no longer be a shortstop. He would likely have done fine at the position, but with Betancourt and Cabrera in the system, there was simply no room for Jones' questionable range. So, in the AFL, the Mariners moved Adam (and his big arm) to center field. In just one year, it's possible that the Mariners will have two of the five best outfield arms in the AL with Jones and Ichiro. Offensively, Adam does a little bit of everything. He won't hit for great home run power in the Majors, maybe about 20 per year, but instead profiles to slap about 30-40 doubles. He walks enough to bat in the two-hole, and managers shouldn't complain about his contact skills, which are about average. Jones likely won't show great range in center, but if he manages to find himself in the same outfield as Jeremy Reed and Ichiro, he won't have to. At worst, Adam leaves the organization to become a Ryan Freel-type player elsewhere.

    44. Neil Walker - C - Pittsburgh Pirates - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: A favorite of mine, as I'm susceptible to falling in love for young catchers with big-time power. Walker fits that bill, and he would have undoubtedly made my breakout prospects list had I not been under the impression that 2005 was his big coming out season. I criticized the Pirates in the past for drafting Walker, as he was then considered a reach at 11, but was attractive because of a cheap bonus demand and hometown ties. However, after 50 extra-base hits this past year, I will now retract any criticism. The Pirates showed foresight, not frugality, in drafting Walker.

    Skillset/Future: Walker is high on this list for his bat, not his glove. Behind the plate, Neil is a work in progress, and will need to really work on his mobility to be successful. There are rumblings that he will one day have to be moved, but I think at 19, that talk is a bit premature. Walker improved as the season went on, and has the potential to be average behind the plate. Just being average will be OK, because Neil's ceiling is in the superstar category offensively. As a teenager, Walker struck out just 83 times this year in more than 500 at-bats, a sign I love for a young catcher. He also showed a ton of power, and while it doesn't always tend to leave the ballpark, it will over time. Switch-hitting catchers aren't exactly a dize a dozen, making Walker as untradeable as anyone in the organization. However, before I get too excited, I will have to see more than 20 walks in a season. Since there are very few other offensive problems to refine, I do think this is a problem that Walker can overcome in the next 2-3 seasons.

    43. Jeff Clement - C - Seattle Mariners - 22 (A+)

    Introduction: The last time the USC Trojans offered the draft a top five catcher, things did not work out so well: Eric Munson. Like Clement, Munson was a powerful hitter that was criticized for his defense. And while I once feared this would be the player that Clement might become, I no longer do. There is no question that Clement's defense behind the plate is lacking, but he also improved each year while at USC, and is light years better than Munson was. Also, Clement has better power, which he has been showing since high school, when he broke Drew Henson's all-time home run record. In all, he's a far more complete player than Munson, and should end up with a far better Major League career.

    Skillset/Future: I've already talked about two parts of Clement's game. His power, from the left side I should add, is fantastic. Jeff dominated the Midwest League after signing, hitting six home runs in less than 120 at-bats. Inland Empire citizens are surely waiting at the edges of their seats to see what he does in the Cal League. His problem defensively is not his throwing arm, which is fine, but instead his movement behind the plate. A big frame has yielded slow actions there, and he can certainly tighten that up. My other Clement concern is that of contact, as he strikes out about 20-25% of the time, which is a little high. This is horrible, threatening a good future batting average or anything, but it certainly would help to improve upon that. Finally, his batting eye is above-average, but not to a great degree. If Clement makes it to the Majors, it will be on power, period.

    42. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - Boston Red Sox - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: We knew the day of the draft that Pedroia was a steal. So, pardon me, for if in the future I go back and criticize teams for not taking Dustin at a higher slot. Forget that he was an older college player with limited potential. This is a guy that had hit .400 in his sophomore season, and topped a .500 OBP in his junior season. In his final two years at Arizona State, Pedroia's OPS was over 1.050. He struck out just 47 times in all of college. Ian Kinsler was blocked because Pedroia was just too good. Yet Dustin slipped to the 65th pick because the best comparisons he could muster were David Eckstein, just because of his tiny height. It's really too bad for all these teams, because by missing out in Pedroia, they missed out in one of the 3 safest picks in the draft.

    Skillset/Future: There has been a lot of talk about Dustin this winter, now that the Red Sox middle infield situation is questionable. With Hanley Ramirez now out of the system, and Edgar Renteria traded, it's quite possible that Pedroia will move back to shortstop this season. As a result, the Red Sox will likely fill that hole with just a part-time solution (maybe just Alex Cora), as they wait for Dustin to get a little more seasoning in AAA. They will find he won't need much, as his poor 2005 Pawtucket line can really be blamed on an unlucky .261 BABIP. When that returns to normal levels, expect Pedroia to continue to post high batting averages while showing some of the best plate discipline in professional baseball. Oh, and he has a little pop, too.

    41. Adam Loewen - SP - Baltimore Orioles - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: It has been a long road coming for Adam Loewen, the southpaw's answer to Edison Volquez. I say this because like Volquez, Loewen continues to receive a lot of hype while continually posting high ERAs. However, there is a fundamental difference between the two players: control. Edison has always had it, and Loewen goes through only stretches with it, and has an ugly career 5.64 W/9. However, I'll take his stuff over Volquez' any day of the week, and I like him more because of what 2006 will provide: Leo Mazzone. If anyone can harness Loewen, and maximize his potential, it's the best pitching coach of all-time. And after the way Adam ended the season, and then pitched in AFL, there are lots of reasons for excitement.

    Skillset/Future: No one in the minor leagues throws a 'heavier' array of pitches than Adam Loewen. It is very difficult for players to make good contact against him, and as a result, no one on this list has a higher G/F ratio: 2.58. This 'heaviness' is a result of his frame, which provides the ability to throw at a downward angle that few players have. Loewen's fastball is in the low-to-mid 90s, but has fantastic life, if not great control. At the Futures Game, I was impressed by his loopy, high 70s curveball that is already considered Major League quality. There have been good advancements with a change, as well, though the pitch needs to be implemented more in 2006. In the same organization that produced B.J. Ryan, it wouldn't be shocking to see Loewen become the next great Oriole reliever. But before that time comes, the Orioles should see if Leo Mazzone can make him the next Oriole ace.

    40. Homer Bailey - SP - Cincinnati Reds - 20 (A+)

    I've talked about Homer Bailey at length recently, so I won't go into detail here. Basically, the former top ten pick is one of my favorite prospects in the minors, a right-hander with an amazing two-pitch arsenal. However, his control -- once praised -- fell apart in pro ball, and needs to be improved before he can take off. I've heard concerns that Bailey's delivery is flawed and he is an injury risk, which of course forces me to temper my expectations (especially in this organization). But simply put, Bailey has the potential to be one of the minors top talents if everything can come together. Here's to betting that it will in 2006.

    39. Adam Miller - SP - Cleveland Indians - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: Before his injury, he was known as "Mr. 101." This refers to the time in the minors in which he hit 101 on the radar gun, and prior to injury, he was consistently in the upper 90s. His slider was deadly, and at the beginning and end of the 2004 season, he was one of the minors best pitchers. I had him ranked as my #2 pitching prospect a year ago. But, as often happens with young players, Miller was injured in spring training of last season. An elbow injury would keep him out for much of the first half, and while he declined surgery, it sounds to have slightly effected his stuff. Adam looked good in a few August starts before ending the season poorly.

    Skillset/Future: I haven't heard exact descriptions of the post-injury Miller, just that his stuff is a bit down. No longer does he have the fastball that will touch 100, but he still is said to sit in the mid 90s. Adam, no longer with the minors best two-pitch combination, will now simply have to better refine his change up to be really successful. What's impressive is that even after the injury, he still has great control given what kind of stuff he brings to the table. 2006 is a make or break year for Miller, as we see what kind of shape his elbow -- and stuff, for that matter -- is in.

    38. Jeremy Sowers - SP - Cleveland Indians - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: Staying on the theme of Indian pitching prospects, Sowers is quite the opposite of Adam Miller. The club's 2004 first-round pick was excellent, as the team made a reported last-minute decision of Sowers over Chris Nelson. Sowers was a former first round pick that passed on seven figures to go to Vanderbilt after a hugely successful high school career. Things simply continued in college, as the southpaw led the Commodores to their first ever Super Regional. He has been even better as a pro, however, as his 2005 ERA was lower than any season at Vandy. Sowers has flown through the Indian system, and will begin the season at Buffalo, likely one Major League injury from breaking into the Big League rotation on a full-time basis.

    Skillset/Future: Like most southpaws that don't hit 95 on the radar, Sowers was drawing Tom Glavine comparisons out of college. However, even 18 months later, the comparison still looks more valid than most times it is used. Like the former Atlanta ace, Sowers has great control of his pitches, issuing only 29 walks in more than 150 innings this past season. His fastball is in the 88-92 range, and provides a good amount of sinking action, similar to Glavine in his prime. Sowers also throws a plus change up and plus curveball, and his pitchability is what generates a majority of his strikeouts. I would not imagine that Sowers enjoys the K/9 numbers in the Majors that Glavine has, but with his intelligence and durable arm, it certainly isn't out of question.

    37. Russ Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: Of every prospect on this list, not one made unexpected Spring Training noise like Russ Martin did last year. In the end, his final March statistics were hardly jaw-dropping, with five hits (one for extra bases) in 13 at-bats. But the Dodgers had fallen in love with the catcher, both for the way he handled their pitchers as well as his plate discipline. Martin was then sent to AA, where he played on the most talented team in minor league baseball. The former 17th round steal has not been particularly durable during his minor league career, but should be good for about 130 games per year.

    Skillset/Future: Russ Martin has the best plate discipline in the minor leagues. Sure, Jeremy Hermida might draw more walks and Howie Kendrick might make more consistent contact, but no one puts it together like Martin. This past year, Russ' Isolated Discipline (OBP-AVG) was .129, and his K% (K/AB) was 16.9%. Both of these are fantastic rates, and should help to provide Russ with a very high OBP in the Majors. This will help, as I am beginning to think more and more that he doesn't have any power. Like he did in 2005, expect a lot more seasons when his slugging is under his OBP. But between being on the bases a lot and playing great defense, it's no surprise that the Dodgers are excited to make Martin their full-time catcher soon. Players like him often don't produce a lot of volatility, so expect pretty consistent production.

    36. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: What in the world is there left to expect of Hanley Ramirez. We have gone from thinking he was a budding superstar, to being convinced he was a bust. In 2004, he made us think he did have All-Star potential, before allowing us to back off that opinion in 2005. There has not been a more volatile player in minor league baseball the last three years than Ramirez. Because of that, and ongoing make-up issues that angered the organization, the Red Sox were quick to trade Ramirez to the Marlins this winter. The opposite of a player like Russ Martin, Hanley is firmly on the scouts side of the infamous scouts v. stats debate. Whether he ever joins the other side is a fact that we all remain quite skeptical of.

    Skillset/Future: It seemed very unlikely a year ago that Hanley would be able to stay at shortstop, especially when Boston signed Edgar Renteria. I began to warm to that very idea, thinking that Ramirez would look great in center field. However, now moved to the Marlin organization, it's almost assured Ramirez will stay up the middle, where his defense will play at about average. His power is pretty non-existent, and at this point, expecting 20 home runs is pretty foolish. Hanley does make really consistent contact, and as a result, could be a .300 hitter in the Bigs. But, at this point it is unlikely he will ever walk very much, and his baserunning is too inconsistent to make him a threat at the top of a lineup. On a championship team, Ramirez is simply a seven or eight hitter that provides moments of greatness around a sea of mediocrity.

    35. Howie Kendrick - 2B - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: There was not a more familar site this year than opening Kevin Goldstein's Baseball America Prospect Report and finding out that Howie Kendrick collected two hits. It was pretty silly for awhile, as it just kept coming, but it turned out downright odd by season's end. The guy had more multi-hit games than 0-fers. That doesn't happen. And that especially shouldn't happen for a former 10th round pick out of a community college. What began in the Pioneer League in 2003 has yet to stop, as Kendrick has now hit .340 or higher at four straight levels.

    Skillset/Future: As I have implied, Kendrick has fantastic contact skills. In fact, I'd go as far to call them the best in the minor leagues. In nearly 300 games and 1200 at-bats, Howie has struck out just 142 times, and just 62 in 2005. He centers the ball very well, and because of that, should consistently post high BABIPs. In Spring Training, I was impressed with the pop I saw in his bat, and while he'll never hit for a lot of power, expect about 25-30 doubles on an annual basis. In the field, I was also impressed in March, which ran counter to what many have said. However, that talk was hushed in 2005, and it appears that Kendrick will stay at second, where I think he has good lateral movement. Like Neil Walker already, the only real offensive trait to work on is his patience, as Kendrick drew just 20 walks in the entire '05 season.

    34. Thomas Diamond - SP - Texas Rangers - 23 (AA)

    Introduction: In 2004, Diamond quickly established himself amidst a slew of '04 college draftees with a fantastic start to his pro career. After dominating the Northwest League, the Rangers challenged Diamond with a promotion to the Midwest League. The results were staggering, and the Rangers entered 2005 with very high hopes for their right-hander. He continued to exceed expectations in the Cal League, moved up to AA after 14 starts. During that time, he was the league's best pitcher, and left with a 1.99 ERA. At that point, his minor league career had 169 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. But as happens with many young pitchers, Diamond struggled when reaching AA pretty badly. By allowing a few more walks and home runs, Diamond's ERA soared to 5.35, and his place in the Texas organization (especially among DVD) has been questioned.

    Skillset/Future: One thing I really like about Diamond is his big, strong pitcher's body. However, velocity reports from college now seem high, as Diamond's velocity is only about 91-95 mph. His curveball remains his best pitch, and Diamond made strides with a change this year. After reading many different reports of Diamond pitch, I think the general consensus is that he's inconsistent. Sometimes he's hitting 95, his curveball is biting, and he's a top 20 prospect. Othertimes he'll be the Rangers next disappointing pitching prospect. I really do think that Diamond will succeed at the Big League level as a #3 starter that provides a ton of innings with an ERA right below league average.

    33. Brian Anderson - OF - Chicago White Sox - 24 (MLB)

    Introduction: If nothing else, Ken Williams is one of the most shrewd GMs in all of baseball. Not many front offices would have the guts to trade one of their most well-liked players (Aaron Rowand) in the months following a World Series victory. However, popularity is not one of the qualifications that Williams demands from his center fielder. And while Rowand's defense is very good up the middle, he simply isn't likely to perform at a high level offensively again. So the team traded Rowand, and later Chris Young, because center field is their deepest position in the minors. Brian Anderson, a former first round pick, was waiting in the wings.

    Skillset/Future: Before I start praising Anderson, I want to start with the bad: he lost his contact skills this year. After striking out just 74 times in 2004, Anderson was over 25% in AAA this season. For all the criticism I give Chris Young on this very issue, it should be noted that Anderson whiffs far too much. However, what he also brings to the table is a very solid all-around game. Brian finally showed the power that had been projected of him this year, and when he moves to a hitter's park in 2006, could be capable of hitting 25 home runs. Anderson has a solid batting eye and plays good defense, and is already said to be fitting in with his new teammates. The Jim Thome trade was not only good for the White Sox offense because Thome will improve upon Carl Everett's performance, but also because Brian Anderson should be exceeding Aaron Rowand.

    32. Anibal Sanchez - SP - Florida Marlins - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: "And in this corner, weighing in at 180 pounds, Anibal Sanchez!" What is Sanchez fighting for, you ask? Well, after breaking out in 2005, Sanchez is here to prove that short-season statistics should be considered seriously when we evaluate prospects. Not a lot of people had Anibal on their radar after 2004, despite a 1.77 ERA in the New York-Penn League. Those who saw his performance were not surprised that he broke out in 2005, as it had simply been a continuation of what he had shown in short-season ball. While prospects like Mitch Einertson fight to make the stats nearly worthless, Sanchez reminds us that every once in awhile, there is an actual diamond amidst all the cubic zirconia.

    Skillset/Future: Coming from baseball's newest hotbed, Venezuela, Sanchez is like many of the pitchers we are seeing from there: short, stocky, and bringing a lot of heat. In Sanchez' case, he pitches at an even six-feet tall, but is still able to throw his fastball into the mid 90s. Better yet, he's good at controlling the pitch, issuing only 40 walks during the 2005 season. However, what has put Sanchez on the prospect map is a deceptive change up that Baseball America fell in love with at the Carolina League All-Star Game. Add in a curveball that I liked at the Futures Game, though it isn't great, and you begin to understand why Sanchez was a better haul than Hanley Ramirez. However, an injury history has to leave some room to temper expectations, which is why Sanchez' ranking is pretty conservative.

    31. Anthony Reyes - SP - St. Louis Cardinals - 24 (MLB)

    Introduction: As a Cubs fan, I really like Sidney Ponson all the sudden. Yes, he just signed with the Cubs rival, but I'm really hoping he wins a rotation spot in Spring Training. Why? Because it blocks Anthony Reyes, who the Cardinals should have simply all-but-guaranteed a spot. After four unimpressive and inconsistent seasons at USC, Reyes has blossomed with the Cardinals now that he has found himself healthy. Starting his pro career in 2004, Anthony has flown through the system, and even impressed the Cardinals with a call-up in 2005. However, St. Louis remains reluctant to give the 24-year-old a rotation spot, which is just fine with the Cub fan in me.

    Skillset/Future: Reyes does it all on the mound. First and foremost, he throws his fastball in the mid 90s, yet has had fantastic control since his freshman season in college. This is what has allowed Reyes to succeed in the minors, along with the development of a very good curveball. His change up is solid if not spectacular, and will certain allow him to succeed at the Major League level. My big concern is the number of home runs that Reyes allows, as his HR/9 was up in the PCL, and then quite high in his 13.1 Major League innings. Hopefully Dave Duncan, one of the Majors best pitching coaches, will work his specialty and teach Reyes to keep the ball closer to the ground than the stands.

    30. Nick Markakis - OF - Baltimore Orioles - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: Markakis has had quite an odd career thus far, with many interesting twists and turns. Not really highly thought of out of high school, Markakis blossomed in one year at Young Harris College, where he played both ways. He excelled so much, in fact, that he was named the best player at the Community College level, leading to a first-round selection by the Orioles. The team drafted him as a hitter, and he began his pro career showing a lot more polish than power and projection. That continued for the first half of his 2004 season, before he finished it fantastically, leading me to project him to break out in 2005. Markakis' season ended early as he went to play for the Greek team in the Olympics, where he would again play two ways. Finally hitting full-time in 2005, Markakis did break out, with a power spike towards the end of the season that extended into AA.

    Skillset/Future: This guy does it all right. Markakis' power is still pretty projectable, as he hit 41 doubles this year, but just 15 home runs. Those numbers should begin to creep closer together as he moved towards his peak, much to the point where Nick starts to hit at or above the slugging average of most right fielders. In the outfield he plays great defense, and is special because he features an arm that could have pitched professionally. From a plate discipline standpoint, Markakis is a success because he walks a lot, a career-high 61 times in 2005. This is combined with pretty good contact skills, though they regressed a bit in AA. If Nick can continue to improve upon those contact skills, while adding a little loft to his swing, there is serious potential for .300/.400/.550 seasons.

    29. Chris Young - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - 22 (AAA)

    I'm also going to keep Young's comments short, as he has been one of the most talked about prospects on this site. Basically, I loved Young before the season, as he provides four tools that few in the minors can match: speed, range, discipline, power. He showed this in 2005, as he broke out in a big way, leading to a trade (the White Sox sold high) to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reason I say that his stock has peaked is because it seems people are willing to overlook the other two tools on his resume: contact and arm. His contact skills are pretty atrocious, and as a result, I don't think he'll hit more than .280 ever as a pro. This is a solid player that I would love to have on my team, but he's not the next Hall of Fame center fielder, if you ask me.

    28. Yusmeiro Petit - SP - Florida Marlins - 21 (AAA)

    Introduction: As Ricardo Gonzalez puts it over at Metsgeek, the key to Yusmeiro is "deception and location." These skills have been the driving influences behind Petit's success in pro baseball, as his scouting report isn't extremely favorable. Petit has always drawn comparisons to Sid Fernandez, both for his large frame and deceptive delivery. With each season of success, this comparison makes more and more sense.

    Skillset/Future: As Ricardo said, the real key to Petit is control. And Yusmeiro has great control, probably the best of any pitcher in the minors. In 2005, he walked just 24 batters in more than 130 innings. This allows for some leeway in the H/9 category, though his deceptiveness (he hides the ball for a long time) has allowed opponents batting average to never be a problem. The biggest concern about Petit is that he allows a lot of home runs, and could be over 30 annually at the Major League level. Traded to the Marlins this winter, Florida must begin to teach Petit ways (a sinker?) to keep the ball on the ground. His future ERA depends upon it.

    27. John Danks - SP - Texas Rangers - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: It seems as if I'm in the minority of believers that John Danks will be the best of the Rangers trio of pitching prospects. However, I think Danks will succeed even though the Rangers have not helped the situation. The team has promoted Danks early in both of his full seasons, leading to significant struggles at the next level. This isn't great on a kid's confidence level, and instead, the Rangers should be allowing about ten fewer starts at these high levels. In 2005, it was AA (where Diamond also struggled), where Danks WHIP went over 1.50.

    Skillset/Future: It seems as if each time Danks gets promoted, he has a momentary loss of control. At his best, John's fastball (in the low 90s, with room to improve) is a weapon that he also controls. If harnessed, he shouldn't be giving up more than about 2.50 walks per nine innings. However, it seems that in high pressure situations (promotions, the Futures Game) he loses control, which could simply be learned with more experience. Danks also has the makings of two more good pitches, including a fantastic curveball and a solid change up. He shows maturity by having confidence in both pitches, and as he adds pitchability, I think he will strike out even more hitters. With a little guidance, the Rangers will be able to turn Danks into a #2 starter. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he's in the right organization.

    26. Daric Barton - 1B - Oakland Athletics - 20 (AAA)

    Introduction: Daric Barton has yet to play in the Major Leagues, and the Mark Mulder trade is still a success for the A's. Dan Haren is that good. So, from Billy Beane's perspective, anything that comes from Barton is just icing on the cake. But that isn't to say expectations are low for Barton, who will be adding to the glut of 1B/DH types in the organization very soon. Intelligently, the team moved him away from catching this season so that Barton could focus on hitting. This turned out to be a good decision, as Barton only continued to learn as a hitter, while no longer providing negative value in the field.

    Skillset/Future: There are few issues that demand more attention in the next two years as whether or not Daric Barton will develop true slugger power. Some think his 36 doubles from 2005 are a sign of things to come, that Barton will remain a gap hitter at the pro level. Others think the doubles will one day clear the fence, as Barton ages and adds more muscle. Either way, Daric can be a successful Major Leaguer, thanks to great discipline and contact skills. The short left-handed slugger drew 97 walks in 2005, keeping his OBP for the season above .420. He also struck out just 79 times, which indicates he could be in the mix for batting titles down the road.

    Over next weekend I'm hoping to do a mailbag article, so if you guys have any questions, please drop them in the comments below. Those that I don't answer right away should get responded to in a separate article on Saturday.

    WTNYJanuary 10, 2006
    2006 WTNY 75: 75-51
    By Bryan Smith

    My prospect list moves on today, away from the honorable mentions and into the actual rankings. Today we count down the numbers 75-51 prospects in baseball, as I see it. As always, please feel free to leave any comments below the article.

    Enjoy!

    75. Andre Ethier - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: Ethier was totally the A's kind of player at Arizona State University, walking 52 times against 30 strikeouts in his last year on campus. However, the problem was always that Andre couldn't get his power to get going, and that he was destined to a career somewhere between being a fourth outfielder and a AAA one. But in a year of Texas League revivals, Ethier busted out, showing power that hadn't been seen since his days in college. However, the A's promptly traded him, selling him high, to the Dodgers for Milton Bradley.

    Skillset/Future: I thought it was funny that the A's brought Jay Payton back to the organization, as Ethier's best comp is Payton. Both have the potential to be marginal starters, and in certain streaks, should even perform quite well. At other times, however, they look like fourth outfielders stretched at any outfield position besides left. Ethier will never be an All-Star at the Major League level, but there is an off chance he retires with more than 4,000 at-bats, or something of the sort. And that has to be considered a success.

    74. Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 23 (AA)

    If you've read this site long, you know his name. You know his name real well. Rather than re-write the report that Rich has so eloquently done so often, I'm instead going to turn you to three of his articles from this season:

    Weav Only Just Begun
    He's Baaack!
    The Futures of the Game
    Patience, My Friends

    I am certainly more of a pessimist on Weaver than Rich is, as his flyball tendencies scare me. However, if the Angels are committed to working on this problem, and the right measures are taken, we all know that Jered has pitchability through the roof. At worst, he's a fringe 5th starter. At best, he's a #3. That's a pretty tight window.

    73. Fernando Nieve - SP - Houston Astros - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: It had to be a now or never year for Fernando Nieve. This is a guy that signed with the organization in 1999. I projected him to breakout before the 2004 season. The Astros were beginning to implement prospects into their rotation. It was simply time for Nieve to turn that corner, and become a top prospect. Problem is, I still can't tell whether he did or not. Nieve pitched brilliantly in 14 Texas League starts, showing better stuff than his organizational mate Jason Hirsh. However, once reaching the PCL, Nieve struggled with hits, walks and strikeouts. A bad combination.

    Skillset/Future: I really do think that Nieve has a future in a Major League rotation. However, these days, I no longer believe he has #2/3 potential, but instead will have to hang towards the back end. He has a rubber arm that has allowed for three straight seasons with over 150 innings, and his stuff is good enough for a career 8.51 K/9 in the minors. However, it seems that Nieve has always been a bit too hittable, and lacked a little too much in the control department. Whether or not a Major League pitching coach can solve these problems should prove to be instrumental to Nieve's future success.

    72. Chuck Tiffany - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: Tiffany did a lot more to disappoint in 2005 than anything else, as expectations were very high. After ending 2004 as well as he did, striking out 46 in his last 21.1 innings. The problem with Tiffany, however, has always been consistency. Sometimes he is the best pitcher in the Dodger system, other times his struggles are massive. There is a very little happy medium.

    Skillset/Future: There seem to be a lot more cons in this section than pros. First, Tiffany has a flyball affinity, and as a result, tends to allow a ton of home runs. Without knowing first hand, I would guess he has the tendency to hang his curveball. It's also a problem, I would guess, that Chuck really only offers two pitches at this point: fastball and curveball. Both offerings are pretty good, but there has just not been a lot of development with a third pitch. Throw in just average control, and you begin to understand why people aren't so enamored with a double-digit K/9 guy.

    71. Eddy Martinez-Esteve - OF/DH - San Francisco Giants - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: I would have a lot more faith in EME if only he was on an AL team's roster. Because we all know the guy can hit. The Giants have to make a decision in choosing how they will replace Barry Bonds: maximize the offense, so losing his bat will be minimized, or get an all-around player who will be better than Bonds was defensively? It's all a matter of how much you weigh defense. Brian Sabean's answer to this question will likely dictate how long EME stays in this organization. If the team wishes to take a hit on defense, then sticking him in left field is the solution. If not willing, it's time to sell high, and trade him to the American League. As a fan, I'm hoping it's the latter.

    Skillset/Future: As I've said, EME can't play defense. At all. His throwing arm is atrocious, and his range makes Pat Burrell cringe. He will never be good, and expecting any different would be foolish. However, there is a pro to match that con. His bat. There is no better pure bat in the minors, considering he has the full package. Unparalleled plate discipline. Great contact skills. Big-time gap power. This guy has it all. It will be interesting to see what leaving the Cal League does to his numbers in 2006, but I don't expect it to be as much as some. A fantastic batting eye tends to minimize volatility, I've found.

    70. Chuck James - SP - Atlanta Braves - 24 (AAA)

    Another sabermetric favorite, James is yet to really struggle at a level. But if you ask me, he's simply a left-handed Jered Weaver. Sure, there are differences in their stuff, but not really huge differences in their stats. Both allow a ton of fly balls, and thrive off very good control. A system of pitcher's parks has allowed James to not allow a ton of home runs, which has been Weaver's problem in the early going. And, of course, both players strike out a good number of hitters based on their fastball control, a decent breaking pitch and unmatched pitchability. James won't be anything better than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but he could also be very good in that role.

    69. Jason Hirsh - SP - Houston Astros - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: Besides Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano, no pitcher broke out in 2005 more than Jason Hirsh. A 2003 second-round choice, I had Hirsh circled on a list before the 2005 season of guys that could be drafted in the '05 Rule Draft, if left unprotected. However, he then proceeded to have a season in which he was named as the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, and was promptly added to the Houston 40-man roster. The key for Hirsh seemed to be a decline in his walk rate, as the big right-hander shaved his BB/9 almost in half. There is a good argument, in my mind, for both Nieve and Hirsh atop the Astro food chain.

    Skillset/Future: Coming out of college, Hirsh was a pitching coach's dream. He had the pitcher's body at 6-8, 250, and was blessed with velocity in the mid-90s. However, there was little control and little secondary stuff. A year later, neither of that is true. Hirsh's curve was raved about in 2005, and as I said, his control was much improved this year. He was unable to average a strikeout per inning, but that's nitpicking. I went with Hirsh over Nieve because I thought the former had a better chance to be a good reliever if starting didn't work out, given his frame and velocity. If the Astros continue to implement young players onto their roster, look for Hirsh to get his chance in 2007.

    68. Gaby Hernandez - SP - Florida Marlins - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: Following a third-round selection in the 2004 draft, Hernandez started to make noise in posting some silly numbers in the Gulf Coast League at 18. With expectations high, Hernandez was great in the South Atlantic League, proving the Mets were involved in a heist waiting until pick 74 to draft him. The word was that his stuff was more consistent after the draft, and there is no question that even since being drafted, Hernandez has thrown more onto the frame. However, he struggled mightily when being promoted to high-A, and with his stock pretty high, the Mets weren't too stupid to sell this winter. If the Marlins can keep Hernandez from preventing home runs, then they will be very happy with their acquisition, as well.

    Skillset/Future: Very few players in the minor leagues allow fly balls at the rate that Hernandez does. This is very odd to me, given reports of a sinking fastball and an extremely low HR/9. Sooner or later, you have to worry, those balls are going to start going over the fence. Or, the Marlins must teach Hernandez a way to add tilt to his fastball. However, this can't come at the cost of his control, as Gaby doesn't make a ton of mistakes. And, as is the problem with all young pitchers, Hernandez simply needs to become more consistent from start-to-start. We'll find out how much of a scare his K/9 reduction is very soon, as Hernandez will likely head back to the Florida State League.

    67. Asdrubal Cabrera - IF - Seattle Mariners - 20 (AA)

    Introduction: A personal favorite of mine. Defense is just beginning a revolution in Major League Baseball, and it has yet to really start trickling down to the minors. Once it does, expect guys like Cabrera to start gaining a little more publicity. Because as far as defensive infielders go, there are few better in all of the minor leagues. To really get a feel for it, try reading Sam Geaney's scouting report on Cabrera. Here's the part about defense:

    Special w/glove. Plus hds and pure showy SS actions. Expert hop reader. Smooth transfer. Plus range and instincts allow him to not only get to balls but look for outs in places most SS wouldn't look. Shows off serious athleticism coming in and throwing on run. Very good feel for game, knows speed of runners which allows him to sit back and complete play with ease. Never got caught waiting too long to unload. Avg arm strength made better by plus accuracy. Errors are coming on plays that most INF won't get to or dream of making but that he has chance to pull off. Exc. body control.

    Skillset/Future: If you haven't gotten it yet, he can be a Gold Glove-caliber player up the middle. There's a chance the presence of Betancourt in the system could push Cabrera to second, which would be a shame. As a hitter, he must start getting back to the things he did in the Midwest League. First and foremost, Asdrubal must re-commit to drawing walks, as his contact skills are a tad below average. I can't imagine he'll hit for much power, so Cabrera needs to hope to have a ceiling of Placido Polanco on offense, and Omar Vizquel on defense. If the Mariners infield situation is too cloudy, then you should really be crossing your fingers that your team lands him. Special talent.

    66. Carlos Gonzales - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: In retrospect, I guess we should have been impressed when Gonzales was posting .150+ ISOs in short-season ball as a teenager. We should have listened to the scouts that said that power would further develop, that there was a player inside this underachiever. Because in 2005, Gonzales took off like few other prospects in minor league baseball. He was the most impressive player in the Midwest League. Arizona spends a lot of time drafting college talents, not worrying about how to refine skills. But if they can find a balance between raw Latin American players and college players, this system should continue to flourish.

    Skillset/Future: Gonzales tends to have every skill in the book, just not every one is fully developed. His contact abilities improved greatly in 2005, as his career average jumped 40 points and his K% was down to under 17%. He showed Major League power, hitting 52 XBH, including 18 home runs as a teenager. Carlos began to walk more, drawing 48 free passes and bringing his OBP north of .370. And while he doesn't have extraordinary speed, Gonzales is seen as a good center fielder. I'll remain skeptical about Gonzales for another year, but if all of this is for real, he could jump about 40 spots in 365 days.

    65. Dustin McGowan - SP - Toronto Blue Jays - 24 (MLB)

    Introduction: As a whole, Dustin McGowan's minor league career is not particularly impressive. A former first round pick, he has a long injury history that includes pitching only 31 innings in 2004. His career minor league ERA is just 3.82. His career K/9 is under 9.00. He is an underachiever, in every sense of the word. However, those that watch McGowan pitch consistently come away impressed. And after coming back from Tommy John surgery very quickly, it's hard not to root for the guy.

    Skillset/Future: This is not a guy that finds his way on this list via statistics, as I've said. Instead, it's his stuff. When watching McGowan pitch in the Majors, you see a guy with a good fastball, and two different breaking pitches. His fastball was not all the way back in 2005, but I came away very impressed with his breaking stuff. He's never had the pitchability to register a ton of strikeouts (beyond class A0, but that can be a learned trait. There is a chance, if he keeps underachieving, that McGowan could be best suited moving to the bullpen. However, an improvement on his fastball -- one in which he reverts to pre-injury form -- could provide the Blue Jays with a possible Rookie of the Year candidate at the back of their rotation.

    64. Jonathan Broxton - RP - Los Angeles Dodgers - 22 (AAA/MLB)

    Introduction: It's funny, I remember arguing with Dodger fans in the past about whether or not Broxton could remain a starter. I said no, and as a result, did not think as highly as him as most people. They liked him as a starter, and saw great things. It turned out that the real answer was somewhere in the middle. In the end, the best thing for Jonathan Broxton was to move to the bullpen. And while his Major League ERA didn't tell the story, I can all but guarantee it will be the best thing for the Dodgers, too. 22 strikeouts in 13.2 innings? Suddenly, those comparisons between Broxton and Gagne's minor league numbers don't look so silly, do they?

    Skillset/Future: The reason a move to relief was so good for Broxton was that it helped his stuff, as it tends to do with some arms. For the Bull, his fastball jumped from about 94 to 98 or 99, and his breaking pitch became that much more devastating. His control has improved in each of the last three seasons, a sign that not only will he strike out people in relief, but he could also be a closer. Oh, and by the way, he doesn't really allow home runs, either. I have Broxton ranked as the second-best relief prospect in baseball, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he was winning Rolaids awards within the next five seasons.

    63. Jeff Niemann - SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 23 (AA)

    Introduction: The San Diego Padres have to be more upset with the Rice University baseball program than anyone else. After Jeff Niemann's sophomore season, it was no contest that Niemann was the best player in the draft. Had the draft been a year early, the team would have been forced to take Niemann. There would have been an uproar if ownership ordered for anything else. The 6-9 rightie had led Rice through the College World Series ranks and capped off a 17-0 season with a 1.70 ERA. He was frightening. But soon, he would be hurt, and it still seems as the injury that followed his sophomore season is still causing problems today.

    Skillset/Future: It's just too hard to give up on a guy that used to touch 99. It's hard to quit on a guy that once had a power curve that would have reinvented the word. Alright, I'm exaggerating, but really, it's a pity this kid's stuff isn't what it used to be. Even with regression, Niemann still has an impressive two-pitch combination, but really needs to be healthy to completely prove that to us. Maybe we'll have to wait for arm surgery for that to happen, or maybe this winter will have provided it for us. The Devil Rays took a risk drafting Niemann in the top five, but if any arm has the chance to pay them dividends, it's Niemann's.

    62. Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers - 24 (MLB)

    Introduction: It seems as if every analyst in the world credited Texas with a win after the Alfonso Soriano trade. Most people wrote that Brad Wilkerson could be a better hitter than Soriano, much less the other two players Jon Daniels received. What seems to be ignored is that Daniels also had incentive to make the trade, as Ian Kinsler has been waiting in the wings. Sure, his AAA season wasn't the greatest success in the world, but it's hard to believe that he can't step in and provide value to the Rangers immediately. And, who knows, maybe both Wilkerson and Kinsler will outdo Soriano in 2006.

    Skillset/Future: I only saw Kinsler play one game in Spring Training last year, but I was impressed. I noted in my review of my preseason Arizona trip that Kinsler was one to have power to all fields, and a strike zone that doesn't expand. Both these comments seem just as apparent now, as Kinsler is coming off a career high in home runs, and staying consistent with his good contact skills. His plate discipline is a bit above average, and Ian should represent a step up in defense over Soriano. There is a chance that Kinsler will have a 20/20 season in the Majors, and a very outside probability that he could win Rookie of the Year.

    61. Adam Lind - OF - Toronto Blue Jays - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: Not to sound like a used car salesman, but Lind is the breakout prospect that I have the most faith in. I found him very early in the season, before his red-hot July, and noticed how few of his extra-base hits were going over the wall. I blamed it on Dunedin, and wrote somewhere that he could correct that problem in 2006. He started to correct it at the end of the season, showing hitting skills that were unmatched in the FSL. It's probably dangerous to start throwing around Paul Molitor comparisons, but for some reason, that's what I see when looking at Lind.

    Skillset/Future: More than anything else, the problem with Lind will be determining a position. Third base is thrown out, now leaving a decision between first, left and DH. For some reason, oftentimes it's the latter that would be the best option for the team. However, for what problems Lind has athletically, he makes up for it offensively. Adam's contact skills are among the minors best, and his sweet swing should also help him become an annual .300 hitter. Besides that, he's very inconsistent, as extra base hits and walks tend to come in bunches. If, like I'm predicting, Lind adds a little power and a little endurance, he could be the minors best pure hitter in under one season.

    60. Scott Elbert - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (A+)

    Introduction: Of all my choices, this is the one I think I might end up pinching myself for most in one season. Not in a good way. Why? Because the Dodgers do this every year. Sometimes the player is Greg Miller, othertimes it is Chuck Tiffany, this year it was Scott Elbert. They bring some hard-throwing southpaw with big numbers to the table, and we become amazed. However, there isn't a great track record for these players. Sooner or later, I think, that trend will break, and one of these pitchers will maximize his potential. Or, the Dodgers will have one helluva fight for the LOOGY spot in their bullpen.

    Skillset/Future: If pitchers only needed two pitches, this guy would be great. His low-90s fastball has good life, and his slider is at times devastating. However, to be a starter, a prospect needs a third pitch, which Elbert lacks. There have been few advancements in that category in a year, and without it, Elbert has a future in the bullpen. Not only will a move to relief offset the aforementioned problem, but it should also minimize the damage his control problems provide. Like I've said before, having the fallback of becoming a very good reliever is a nice thing. But the reason you see Elbert so high on the list is that I think that even a good career in relief would be a disappointment.

    59. Jeff Mathis - C- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 23 (MLB)

    Introduction: Wax on, wax off. After 2003, Jeff Mathis was one of the most exciting players in minor league baseball. A catcher with projectable power out the roof. After 2004, he was a forgotten prospect. Baseball America pointed out that Mathis had simply tired in the Texas League, a theory that should undoubtedly be applied to catchers in the future. Finally, it seems like we're getting the right view of Mathis. Would it surprise you if I said we've learned that he's an inconsistent player? Nah, didn't think so.

    Skillset/Future: Gone are the days in which I will forecast 30-40 home run potential for Mathis. That was foolish. Instead, I think we should expect 40-50 extra-base hits per season, with about 20 (max) coming via the long ball. Jeff has made strides with his contact skills, and in the Majors, should continue to fall short of 100 strikeouts per year, while batting about .280. He mixes this with pretty average discipline skills, adding (as we've seen) about sixty or seventy points to his average. Behind the plate, Mathis is no gem, but he'll certainly be serviceable to the Angles. And after all, when Mathis is done hitting in the 8th inning in 2006, the team might as well bring in Jose Molina. Average catchers have a positive value, and that's just what Mathis is.

    58. Javi Herrera - OF - Oakland Athletics

    Introduction: There is no player on this list I saw more than Herrera this year, who I was able to see in six different games. And it seemed as if each time I saw him, I was impressed. But this scares me, because it reminds me of another player I love in person that has disappointed: Shin-Soo Choo. Both are small, strong players with hints of all six tools. I'm no scout, so I recognize the danger in evaluating players in such a fashion. But we also have to allow our experience in the game have some influence, so I'm bringing out that card with Herrera. His stats might not equal a few players behind him, but I'll be damned if he doesn't succeed on my watch.

    Skillset/Future: As I said, there are bits and pieces of all six tools in this kid. I can personally attest that he covers great ground in center, which should make up for an arm that is average at best. Herrera is an accomplished base stealer, who with a little push, could probably swipe about 25 bags a year in the Bigs. He likely won't, I don't think, be a 25/25 player, though. There is power in his bat, but given his small frame, I think it should be confined to the gaps. From a plate discipline standpoint, Herrera has one plus (batting eye) and one minus (control problems). Add these two together, and his OBP should be a bit above-average in the Major Leagues. If Herrera can swing and miss less, he has the potential to be a special player in the Majors. If not, he should still be average. If he regresses, he can be a fourth outfielder. That range of options is what impresses me most, I think.

    57. Eric Duncan - 1B - New York Yankees - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: Normally, I'm not a sucker for age being a defining characteristic in a player. Too often, I think, players are allowed to use their age as a crutch. Sure, he hit just .240 in Low-A, he's just 18. But for some reason, I do think age is very important when evaluating Eric Duncan. While a .734 OPS in AA is not very impressive, there are things to like in the numbers, and those are enhanced when learning the player was in his age 20 season. I'm also drawn to the Yankees reluctance to trade Duncan, which might reflect a newer organizational philosophy more than a particular faith in Eric. Time will tell, I guess.

    Skillset/Future: This winter, the Yankees decided to eliminate Duncan's most glaring weakness: his play at the hot corner. While it had improved in two years through Duncan's hard work, he was never going to be a good third basemen. With A-Rod entrenched at the position, anyway, a move to first base was best for all parties. My anticipation is that Duncan will be a good fielder there, and also could have the bat for it. His power is very significant, and while his 2B:HR ratio was a bit low, he could hit 30 home runs in a Major League season. Duncan also has very good patience for someone his age, which makes up for bad, bad contact issues. When considering all that, his peak is that of a .270/.350/.500 player in my mind. And oddly enough, in 2007, he could be looking to prove that in the Big Apple.

    56. Garrett Mock - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks - 23 (AA)

    Introduction: Another one of my breakout guys, Mock is the one I had pegged the earliest. He is just a simple case of numbers distorted by context. He played in Lancaster, in the Cal League, one of the worst environments a pitcher could have. Garrett had a .334 BABIP on his many groundballs, a number that could have prevented about 25 hits if normalized. He didn't pitch great at the end of the season, instead showing potential for 2006. This guy has everything I look for in a breakout prospect. Truly, I would be shocked if he isn't a top 40 player in one year.

    Skillset/Future: What I love about Mock is that he's fairly easy to project. A durable arm and good pitcher's body will allow Mock to become an innings-eater in the mold that John Lackey serves for the Angels. He might not be noticed much, but quietly, he'll be throwing 200+ innings of above-average baseball a season. While that is what will most likely happen, Mock also has the potential to be a #2 pitcher. He throws four good pitches, and his fastball has enough tilt to provoke a lot of ground balls. We like that in these parts. Look for the Southern League to be a nice place for Mock to break out in next year, possibly even surpassing the numbers put up by Dustin Nippert. And in no time, he should pass Nippert in the organization's eyes, if he isn't already.

    55. Troy Patton - SP - Houston Astros - 20 (AA)

    Introduction: In a lot of ways, Patton represents a few different Astro draft ideologies. The first is to load up with players from Texas, one of the nation's best baseball states. This provides the team with a bunch of hometown players coming from high school and college programs that the Houston front office trusts. The other ideology, as Roy Oswalt has proven, is one that ignores height. The club is far more impressed with results than, as Michael Lewis might put it, how a player looks in a pair of jeans. This has paid off with Patton, who now has a lifetime 2.13 ERA in the minors. The Moneyball philosophy, to find underrated traits in players, is what allowed Houston to pick up Patton in the 2004 draft's ninth round.

    Skillset/Future: Not many players impressed me in the 2005 Futures Game more than Patton. My comments after watching him:

    the southpaw started the inning with a 93 mph fastball, the only velocity the pitch hit in four throws. He also showed an impressive change in the dirt, and forced a ground out from Bergolla on a mid 70s, loopy curve.

    If this game was an indication of what Patton normally brings to the table, he should be pitching in Houston by the time he turns 21. Very few southpaws in the minors offer a three-pitch combination like the one I saw in Detroit. Add in great control and the ability to keep the baseball in the park, and you have a future #2 pitcher, barring injury.

    54. Kendry Morales - 1B/DH - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 23 (AAA)

    Introduction: At the 2005 Futures Game, prior to its start, I watched the players take batting practice and interact on the field. One thing I noticed, not to my surprise, was Kendry Morales and Rafael Betancourt talking to each other. I remember taking a picture of it, wondering what it would mean in 5, 10, 25 years. These two are, after all, test cases. While Cuba has produced Major League players for years, oftentimes, they have been pitchers. Before Morales and Betancourt, very few position players made it from Cuba. In these two, we have the Cuban's best hitter (Morales), and their best fielder (Betancourt). Their translation to Major League Baseball will go far in dictating how big of a market there exists for Cuban hitters in the future. Test cases.

    Skillset/Future: Morales quickly went through the Cal League, showing the Angels his competition in Cuba exceeded class-A ball. However, upon hitting AA, Kendry had a few struggles. They were quickly overcome, however, by a huge finish to his season that extended into the Arizona Fall League. We know now that Morales has plus power, possibly to the tune of thirty home runs per year. He also makes good contact skills, only lacking in the discipline category offensively. If the Angels can get him to start walking, his lack of athleticism will not be a problem. If not, however, then he will have to overcome low OBPs from the DH spot...never an easy task.

    53. Elijah Dukes - OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: If maturity wasn't a key component of a baseball player, all the talk about Elijah Dukes would be how far he has come since being drafted. While he's always possessed all the tools, the 2002 hometown pick has had a long process of refining them over the years. In 2003, his pro career started in low-A, and Dukes was a mess. He didn't have a ton of power, and lacked any form of contact. His defense and baserunning were raw at best. His only plus was a good amount of discipline, and an age where his faults would be accepted. But maturity does count, so we only see Dukes as a bit of a disappointment. After run-ins with the law, Dukes' 2005 season was clouded with ejections, and even a suspension. His skills have come so far, but he has not.

    Skillset/Future: As I mentioned, Dukes has all the tools, and now has most of them refined. His strikeout percentage has dropped at each level, reaching a low of 18.6% this year. His power peaked, as Dukes hit 10 more home runs than he had in any season prior. Elijah has always had good discipline, which has consistently made up for contact faults. He plays good enough defense to remain in center, and while his baserunning isn't great, it's not a reach to expect Preston Wilson SB numbers. But if I was to compare Dukes to any player, as I have before, it would be Milton Bradley. Like Bradley, it could be Dukes' non-baseball issues that do him in more than anything else. With Rocco Baldelli now signed to an extension, we already know that we can blame Dukes' forthcoming trade on that.

    52. Jason Kubel - OF/DH - Minnesota Twins - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: It seems as if Alanis Morissette should be add a phrase to "Ironic" about Jason Kubel. A 12th round pick in 2000, Kubel was more ordinary than not in his first four seasons. To cap it off in 2003, he hit a very ordinary .298/.361/.400 in the Florida State League. A year later, Kubel was considered one of the minors' purest hitters, and the future right fielder of Minnesota. His 2004 season shocked the prospect world. And after climbing so high, Kubel entered the realm of freak accidents in the Arizona Fall League, tearing up every "CL" in the knee. He did not play in 2005.

    Skillset/Future: It's very hard to evaluate Kubel as a prospect. This might be considered high for him, but I went over each hitter, and could not convince myself that I'd rather have any of the guys behind him before Kubel. At worst, his knee will relegate him to DH duty, where I truly believe he will hit. His contact skills were fantastic prior to the injury, and should return as he builds muscle memory. His plate discipline is above-average, and he'll hit for good (not great) power. But this guy could win a batting title one day, and for the Twins, that will be great whether it's in left, right, or off the bench.

    51. Gio Gonzalez - SP - Philadelphia Phillies - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: Pitching defined the 2004 first round more than anything else. Of the first 41 picks in the draft, twenty-eight of the players drafted threw off a mound. However, more than 2/3 of those players were college pitchers, and it seemed as if prep pitchers were falling a bit. This allowed the White Sox to draft Gio Gonzalez with the 38th overall pick. A hard-throwing southpaw from Miami, Chicago went the Houston way, and ignored the height written within the scouting report. Instead, they focused on the pitcher, who could turn out to be the draft's best prep pitcher. If so, it will be in a different organization, as the team traded Gonzalez to the Phillies in the Jim Thome deal this offseason. Gonzalez and Cole Hamels should be fighting (no, don't use your fists, Cole) for place on the organizational depth chart soon.

    Skillset/Future: In one Baseball America Daily Dish, written towards the end of the minor league season, the BA crew had this to say about Gonzalez:

    ...the 19-year-old lefty sent Kinston down in order after the first inning as he showed off an explosive 93 mph fastball, hammer curve and a late-diving changeup.

    After succeeding in short-season ball at the age of 18, Gonzalez started to draw comparisons to Johan Santana. Part of this was on merit, and of course, part was due to Santana's rising profile. In reality, there is little in common between the two pitchers besides handedness, velocity and similar frames. Both short, Santana become a dominant pitcher as his change-up became one of the game's best. His fastball features as much movement as anyone in the game, and he has an above-average slider. Gonzalez has a solid fastball, but really pitches off his great curve. There seem to be mixed reports on his change-up, but at worst, it sounds to be an average pitch. With three solid pitches, I expect Gonzalez to finish his first season as a Phillie in AA. By this time next year, we could be talking about him as a rotation candidate.

    Over next weekend I'm hoping to do a mailbag article, so if you guys have any questions, please drop them in the comments below. Those that I don't answer right away should get responded to in a separate article on Saturday.

    WTNYJanuary 09, 2006
    2006 WTNY 75: Honorable Mention
    By Bryan Smith

    With winter league baseball finally nearing its conclusion, the time has come for me to unveil my top 75 prospects. We will be doing so gradually in the next week, finishing with the top ten on Friday. We start today, however, with the 25 guys that came closest to making the list. I didn't want to be put in the position of ranking this group, so it goes from Andrus to Volstad.

    Enjoy!

    Elvis Andrus - SS - Atlanta Braves - 17 (A-)

    Introduction: Two years ago, in my first attempt at ranking prospects, I had the dilemma of ranking a 17-year-old that had tore through the Northwest League. I don't have a link to it, but I distinctly remember ranking Felix Hernandez in the number ninety spot. Two years later he would be second, and three years later he is being talked about as a potential Cy Young candidate. However, for every King Felix, there are plenty of failed teenage phenoms. For that reason, if going to 100, I would rank Elvis Andrus in about the ninetieth spot. Players with such youth are risky, without a doubt, but their upside is beyond what most American-born players can reach.

    Skillset/Future: While most players would be raw playing in professional baseball shortly after being able to drive, Andrus is not. He walked 19 times in 187 plate appearances, which is pretty fantastic given his maturity level. Furthermore, his contact skills are also refined, as his .295 batting average and 16.9% strikeout rate would attest. Elvis has good speed -- though his baserunning needs work -- and defense that, with more work, could be fantastic. He's simply a very fluid player in the Edgar Renteria mold. What Andrus lacks right now is power. While you might assume this can develop into a strength with age, my guess is that the potential is merely average. The Braves will likely start him in full-season ball next year, and we should get a better look at the player the Padres wish they had in Matt Bush.

    Erick Aybar - SS - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: Back in 2003, things were looking good for Mr. Aybar. As a teenager he had posted a .794 OPS in the Midwest League, also stealing 32 bases at a 78% clip. The Angels preferred him to Alberto Callaspo up the middle, and he was seen as the Angels shortstop of the future. Now, that is simply not the case. This is not for lack of trying, as Aybar's play has been consistent, but for his organization-mates. The Angels have signed Orlando Cabrera to a long-term deal, and behind Aybar is Brandon Wood, one of the game's top prospects. A move to second wouldn't do much good, as Howie Kendrick has him blocked there. It seems as if there are two outcomes for Aybar: a super-utility career in the Chone Figgins mold, or a trade.

    Skillset/Future: At every stop in his pro career, Aybar has hit at least .300. His OPS has always been over .790. He has always struck out in less than 16% of his at-bats. However, Aybar's stock has been gradually slipping since its 2003 peak. Why? First, his baserunning has seemingly worsened, as Erick is just 100/159 the last two seasons. He also hasn't gained a hint of discipline, giving his on-base percentage a ceiling of about .375, and likely a home around .330-.350. It's likely that Aybar's SLG numbers will come down as well in the future, since the number is fairly triple-dependent. There is likely some team out there who will confuse Aybar for a leadoff hitter, but really, a Tony Womack-career is his destiny.

    Wes Bankston - 1B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 22 (AAA)

    Introduction: It's sure easy to fit in quietly when everyone around you is making noise. You might recognize Bankston's name from 2002, when the fourth rounder hit 18 home runs in 246 Appy League at-bats. However, it was then he started to blend in. In 2003, Bankston struggled in low-A on the same team as B.J. Upton. Repeating the level in 2004, this time he was protection for Delmon Young. This year, he again played on Young's team, which also featured Elijah Dukes. Fifth hitters rarely get recognized in minor league baseball, but it's hard to blame Bankston for being paired with top five picks.

    Skillset/Future: Since lighting up the Appy League fresh out of a Texas high school, Bankston has moved to first base. Given the Devil Rays crowded outfield situation, and Bankston's limited range, this was the best move for everybody. The question now is whether Bankston's bat can survive at first. I believe it can. It's unlikely he'll be an All-Star, but I imagine that his power can be that of an average American League first baseman, with the potential to pass that. His Southern League power, an ISO of .190, is about what I foresee, in which Bankston is a doubles hitter with 20-30 HR potential. Wes has a good batting eye that regressed a bit in AA, but should always play as a strength. And contact hasn't been a significant problem since 2003, and should be average at the Major League level. Tampa should be searching for a one-year option at first this winter, since in 2007, it should be Bankston's turn to take the helm.

    Josh Barfield - 2B - San Diego Padres - 23 (MLB)

    Introduction: Those with a Major League pedigree often tend to get advantages that others don't, while also being forced to live in their father/brother's shadow. Josh Barfield doesn't really fit that stereotype, as he had to both earn his prospect status and the comparison to his father. A fourth-round pick in 2001, Barfield quietly played well in 2002 before exploding the next season in the California League. With 128 RBI's and 122 strikeouts, Josh was seen as Jesse, the 2B version. A down year in AA tempered expectations, but Josh played well upon returning to a good offensive environment.

    Skillset/Future: Josh seems to do everything well but make contact. In each of his now four minor league seasons, Barfield has reached the triple digits in strikeouts. This creates the necessity for high BABIPs, which he has managed in three of four seasons, including a .363 clip in 2005. However, it's unlikely this will continue at the Major League level, and as a result, his batting average should dip considerably. Good thing that Barfield's plate discipline has gradually improved, and even with a .250 batting average, he should manage an OBP of about .320. Josh will always have more power than the average second baseman, so it's too bad he'll be playing in PETCO Park, which will turn plenty of home runs into doubles. Both his baserunning and defense, which we were both once skeptical of, are average skills. An offseason Mark Loretta trade paves the way for Barfield to start at second, where he is an underdog (but candidate) for NL ROY.

    Ryan Braun - 3B/OF - Milwaukee Brewers - 22 (A+)

    Introduction: This season, I have decided to add recent draftees to my prospect list. This is a first for me, and as a result, expect many of the rankings to be conservative. Because like Elvis Andrus, with many of these players, it's hard to know less than 500 at-bats into their pro career who they really are. We have a decent handle on college players like Braun, as with him, we have seen great offensive numbers at a big school like the University of Miami. After two good years at the U, Braun shot up draft charts and Miami record books with a .388/.471/.726 junior season. After much deliberation, the Brewers (with a very intelligent scouting department) settled on Braun with the fifth overall pick.

    Skillset/Future: On draft day, I talked about how there were only three other Miami hitters with bigger numbers: Pat Burrell, Jason Michaels and Aubrey Huff. The latter is the best comparison you can make for Braun. Neither plays defense well, and if not now, it's likely that Braun will move from third to right field at some point. However, with bad defense is also a fantastic bat with all the strengths. While neither his discipline or contact rates were great in his debut, expect them both to improve in Braun's full-season debut. He also has power that rivals anyone in the minors, and should one day create quite a tandem with Prince Fielder. However, unlike a few of the other college draftees, it's presumptuous to believe that Braun will fly through the minors. While his season-ending stats were good in low-A, to do so, Braun overcame some significant struggles. While he should finish the year in AA, expect the Brewers to conservatively start Ryan in the FSL.

    Reid Brignac - SS - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: Some of you will be surprised to see Brignac on this list. It's unlikely he'll make any other top 100s. However, if you really are shocked by this selection, read my latest BP article. In the piece, I selected Brignac as one of my eight key breakout prospects of 2006. After being drafted in the second round following a wonderful Louisiana high school career, Brignac played great in the short-season Appy League. Expectations were high in 2005, and as a result, he fell short. As they lessen in 2006, expect them to go the opposite way, and this time exceed them.

    Skillset/Future: I like Brignac to break out for 2 reasons: a big late-season finish and his list of comparisons. The big finish, which came in the last quarter of Brignac's season, showed improved contact skills and increased power. If he can tone down the strikeouts, as well as improve his discipline, Reid should be a very good offensive shortstop. He doesn't have great speed, and as a result, great range, but it's unlikely he'll move from shortstop. Brignac's calling card is plenty of undeveloped power, and his 2005 performance is quite reminiscent of two 2004 MWL seasons: Brandon Wood and Adam Jones. It's tough to enter the Cal League being compared to Wood, and even I don't believe he has that potential. But Adam Jones is a pretty perfect offensive example for Brignac, which should push him into next year's top 75.

    Eric Campbell - 3B - Atlanta Braves - 20 (A-)

    Introduction: And the short-season performance of the year goes to...Eric Campbell. You might not have heard of Campbell before, because of the system in which he plays, but with Marte's exit, this guy is the top 3B in the system. A second-round pick in 2004, Campbell had a lackluster debut in the GCL, so the Braves decided to get conservative. Stuck in the Appy League this season, Campbell was its top hitter, slugging .634. One of the holy grails of minor league analysis is to discover exactly what short-season performances dictate, as examples like Mitch Einertson prove. But Atlanta -- who rarely drafts outside the south, Campbell is from Indiana -- loved his power on Draft Day 2004, so they weren't shocked by his 2005 output.

    Skillset/Future: As I've alluded to, Campbell's biggest calling card is big-time power. In 2005, over half of his hits and 17.6% of Eric's at-bats went for extra bases. Both of those are pretty dazzling percentages. Besides power, Campbell is a pretty average player. His contact skills aren't great -- his strikeout rate is about 25% -- and as a result, he should be a 100 K-per-year player. Eric walked in just under 10% of his plate appearances, and with maturity, discipline could even become a strength. On the bases, Campbell had 15 steals. While 30/30 is likely out of the question, he should be good for about 10-15 annually at the Big League level. The Braves have a slew of pitcher's parks in their low levels, so expectations should be tempered for Campbell. But come 2009, this guy will likely be looking to become Chipper Jones' long-term replacement.

    Cesar Carrillo - SP - San Diego Padres - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: There was a time in which it looked as if Carrillo would become 2005's version of Aaron Heilman. His perfect record at the University of Miami extended for a long time, before Carrillo seemingly collapsed late in the season. While his results took a nosedive, the Padres still targeted Carrillo as one of the draft's safest bets: a player that would finally provide a quick and easy return on their investment. Miami has been a hitter's haven for years, and Carrillo quietly became one of the leaders this season. The Padres have much faith in Carrillo who was drafted more as a "safe bet" than a "future ace."

    Skillset/Future: Reports claim that Carrillo doesn't have the stuff of a future ace, but he isn't back of the rotation material, either. His control is erratic, depending on the nature of his fastball, which sits in the low-to-mid 90s. Cesar's secondary stuff, two pitches, should both play as above-average at the Major League level. His groundball nature intrigues me, and the Padres should have a battle as whether their two complete pitching prospects -- Carrillo and Tim Stauffer -- have the better Major League career. This should be determined in 2007, in which Carrillo should be ready for an extended Major League stay.

    Christian Garcia - SP - New York Yankees - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: Like Brignac, this is another one of my breakout prospects. Some of you may be surprised that I rank Garcia third in the Yankee system, ahead of Tyler Clippard, C.J. Henry, Brent Cox and Jose Tabata. However, as I expressed in the BP article, I believe that Garcia has as much potential as any of them, and that he's also very likely to achieve that. Certainly there are maturity obstacles to overcome before a player can breakout, but I see it happening with Garcia.

    Skillset/Future: As Rich has expressed on this site in the past, pitchers with high strikeout and groundball rates succeed. Line drives and flyballs simply fall in for hits too much, so I often tend to favor power-sink pitchers. Garcia is just that. His velocity has been throughout the 90s in the minors, but should settle in the 94-96 region before too long. I've also heard fantastic reports about his curveball, which rivals Clippard's for the system's best. These two pitches cause both strikeouts and ground balls, and for success, he just needs to tighten that change. Dayn Perry has proven that low HR rates are the best future predicting stat, and Garcia's 0.3 HR/9 rate is one of the minors' best. With some improvements in control and consistency, I expect Christian to enter the top 50 in the next year.

    Justin Huber - C/1B - Kansas City Royals - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: Worries about whether Huber can catch are now long gone. The Royals intelligently ended that endeavor once they acquired the Australian slugger, instead letting him focus on his bat. That has always been Huber's calling card as a prospect, since the days in which he profiled to replace Mike Piazza in New York. However, the Mets then inexplicably traded Huber away in the Kris Benson deal.

    Skillset/Future: Huber's bat has always profiled to be powerful, and this year, it finally reached that level. His 23 home runs this year were a career-high, as was his .343 batting average at AA. Huber swings and misses a lot, and as a result, probably won't hit much higher than .280 at the Big League level. However, he walks quite often, and because of it, his OBP will be above-average. Still, it's unforeseen whether he will fully develop 25+ HR power, like Mike Sweeney, who he has been compared to since before being traded to the Royals.

    Matt Kemp - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: With so many prospects in the system, we would understand if Dodger prospects got lost in the shuffle. However, despite their depth, few players made an impression on Dodger brass this season like Matt Kemp. While Andy LaRoche was dominating in Vero Beach, battling Brandon Wood for the minor league home run lead, Matt Kemp was quietly the VB Dodgers second-best hitter. Once LaRoche moved up to the Southern League, Kemp had the responsibility of hoisting the team on his shoulders. And the former sixth-round pick continued to impress, through all this, showing athleticism that is second to none in the system.

    Skillset/Future: This is Kemp's most significant strength. His athleticism. At 6-4, Kemp has a frame built for power and a throwing arm, but also has speed that produced 23 steals and a lot of range in the outfield. He should settle in right field, where Kemp has Gold Glove potential if he properly refines his skills. He also has the power to hit at the position, though the power he showed in 2005 was likely enhanced by the Vero Beach environment. In the Majors, he profiles as a possible 25/25 player. To have All-Star potential, Kemp must learn to walk more, a trait that has just stayed still in two years.

    George Kottaras - C - San Diego Padres - 23 (AA)

    Introduction: It's no surprise that the sabermetric crowd loves Kottaras. A 20th round pick from Connors State College in 2003, Kottaras has been showing collegiate discipline since entering the Padre organization. His performance has been steady in each of his minor league stops, though his first (Idaho Falls in 2003) and last (AA Mobile this year) were a bit behind his longer stops. The Padres have not done much with the hole created by Ramon Hernandez this winter, showing the club has a little faith in Kottaras' abilities. How much faith will be decided in one season's time, in which San Diego should be expecting him to start batting against right-handed pitching.

    Skillset/Future: As I alluded, Kottaras' is a very disciplined player. He walks about as much as anyone on this list, while also making a lot of good contact. Between those two, he profiles to have a solid OBP in the Majors. However, what I don't see developing is a lot of power in his bat. Kottaras has been a gap hitter for the past two years, unable to hit a lot of home runs in even the California League. The spacious outfield in PETCO Park could help or hurt this skill, but either way, he's not a guy that will boast a good Isolated Power. My main concern is whether Kottaras will be able to handle southpaws, as his pull-heavy approach could turn him into a platoon player. It could certainly be worse for Kottaras, who should be given every opportunity to succeed in an organization that respects his strengths.

    Cameron Maybin - OF - Detroit Tigers

    Introduction: On draft day, I truly believed Cameron Maybin was the third best player in the draft. There were six marquee talents in my mind: Upton, Gordon, Zimmerman, Maybin, Pelfrey and Hansen. The four college pitchers had years of success, established against some of the nation's best. Upton and Maybin, however, were simply word of mouth. And that seemed to be louder that it had been in recent years, for any tandem of high school draft eligibles. Upton had unlimited potential up the middle, and Maybin was drawing Griffey comparisons in center.

    Skillset/Future: A prolonged draft negotiation left us unable to see how Cameron's talents will transfer to a wooden bat. The Tigers are probably best off playing the Braves/Campbell conservative role in 2006, starting Maybin in short-season ball. They won't, asking him to overextend himself in the Midwest League. After a slow start, expect Maybin to show bits and pieces of all six tools, including plate discipline. His speed and arm in center profile extremely well, and his bat led to a Baseball America Player of the Year trophy. Maybin is a special talent, and a stroke of luck that the Tigers should be thankful for.

    Andrew McCutchen - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates - 19 (A-)

    Introduction: As I commented in an article back in August, I have learned that the Pirates bring certain preferences into their draft room. The team found their resources would be best utilized if they drafted players who fit PNC Park. Those three types of players: left-handed college pitchers, left-handed sluggers and outfielders with lots of range (for left field). Since 2003, their picks have dictated this philosophy: Paul Maholm, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen. The latter, this year's pick, was considered the best athlete to come from Florida since Lastings Milledge. The combination of his speed and ceiling were unmatched in this draft, leading the Bucs to dream of him covering one of the biggest left fields in the Majors.

    Skillset/Future: As I indicated, McCutchen's primary tool is his speed. This will help him become an outfielder capable of great CF defense (or LF), while also stealing a lot of bases. In his short time after signing with Pittsburgh, Andrew went 17/19 on the bases. The Bucs will soon learn that when you draft players from places like Florida, even when they are prep players, they often come refined. Both McCutchen's speed and his discipline are refined tools. At the plate, he managed to draw 37 walks (against 30 strikeouts!) in 210 at-bats. Not only does McCutchen make great contact, but his discipline also provides a future batting leadoff. His power will never be a great skill, but should develop enough for him to hit 10-15 homers and more than 30 doubles per year. Given his leadoff skills and outfield defense, this should be more than enough.

    Miguel Montero - C - Arizona Diamondbacks - 22 (AA)

    Introduction: Not as if the Diamondbacks needed any more help. Before the season, Arizona already had one of the best systems in the game. They had Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson at the top, with Stephen Drew nearly signed and waiting in the wings. They had a decent amount of promising pitching, and the upcoming #1 pick in the June draft. But suddenly, as the year started, Arizona had two more players that came from nowhere: Miguel Montero and Carlos Gonzales. While the latter had drawn warm reviews from scouts in the past, Montero had not. Instead, he had a history of weak hitting that included very little power. This year, however, Montero took off in the Cal League and found himself on the prospect radar.

    Skillset/Future: There are plenty of Diamondback prospects who have drawn rave reviews in Lancaster, only to see them fall by the wayside at AA (Jon Zeringue, for one). Montero has a chance to be that type of player, with enough ceiling to possibly hit well in the Majors. He can defend at the Major League level, though it's unlikely he'll ever win a Gold Glove. Montero also has good contact skills, though they faded when he moved up to AA late in the season. I don't trust Montero's high-A power spike, and he has never walked much. I'm definitely more down on him than most, but given solid defense and good contact skills, he has back-up potential (which counts for something).

    Matt Moses - 3B - Minnesota Twins - 21 (AA)

    Introduction: It's just hard to get a good read on Matt Moses. A first-round pick in 2003, Moses signed relatively quickly and managed to high impress in the Gulf Coast League. The following season, however, back problems started and Moses hit horrendously (.223/.304/.366) in the Midwest League. Expectations were very low this year, as we all can understand that back problems tend to repeat themselves. However, Moses jumped out of the gate to become one of the FSL's best hitters, yielding a midseason promotion to the Eastern League. And as has always been the story, where there is an up, what followed was a down for Moses.

    Skillset/Future: The question that surrounds Moses is whether his bat will hold up at the Major League level. It should, though it will never be far above average, and back problems have done nothing to help him on the defensive end (he'll get by, though). Moses walks enough, drawing 42 walks this year, and showing a better ratio before his promotion. However, his contact skills lag behind a bit, and while it will never be a huge problem, Moses should register 100 strikeouts per season. Due to those contact problems, it's unlikely Moses hits better than .280 for much of his Big League career. I should note his .306 average in the FSL was helped by a .363 BABIP. What remains then is a question of power. Moses actually showed more power once reaching the Eastern League, and while the stadium in New Britain helped, it did show his spike is real. Based on the evidence, Moses should hit about .270/.340/.440 in the Majors near his peak, which in Minnesota, is more than enough to play the hot corner on a daily basis.

    Dustin Nippert - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks - 25 (AAA)

    Introduction: This is the classic example of why using mid-to-late round choices on successful college pitchers is such a good philosophy. Nippert wasn't highly thought of coming out of West Virginia in 2002, but years later, the 6-7 right-hander is making scouting directors scratch their heads. Sometimes size does matter. Especially when teamed with Nippert's control, which was the reason for his success right of the gate. Such good numbers continued until he needed Tommy John surgery in July of 2004. Many worried it would impact the right-hander's career. Hardly. Nine months after going under the knife, Nippert was pitching, and pitching well. His season finished with performances in the Majors. Chalk up another one for TJ surgery, ladies and gents.

    Skillset/Future: As Dustin has added velocity to a fastball that now touches 97, he has lost the control that was so good in college. But it's hardly a weakness now, as Nippert's BB/9 was back down to 3.22 this year. Also armed with a power curve, he has never found it hard to generate a lot of strikeouts, though his K/9 dipped to an all-new low this season. Part of the blame might be the Diamondbacks pressure to force Dustin into throwing his change-up more, which would (as Brandon McCarthy can attest) certainly help his prospect status. While Nippert does have the nice backdrop as a Major League reliever, it's hard not to worry about a 25-year-old pitcher with a K/9 below 7.50.

    Hunter Pence - OF - Houston Astros - 23 (AA)

    Introduction: Did anyone have a better quiet year in minor league baseball this season? It didn't seem as if there was a lot of talk about Pence, who was promoted out of the South Atlantic League after making mincemeat of the young pitchers for 80 games. He showed every skill at the level, playing CF, walking enough, not striking out too much, and showing fantastic power. It's hard to ignore Pence's age and 2B:HR ratio (should never be that low) when evaluating his Sally League performance, but it still shocks me that this guy didn't get more publicity. Six foot four center fielders with huge power don't get ignored often.

    Skillset/Future: Even after moving to the Carolina League, Pence continued to show good power. However, I would expect (as he moves up the minor league ladder) more of Pence's home runs to drop as doubles, which is a phrase we don't say very often. Pence's future as a Major Leaguer will heavily depend on his ability to stay in center, which doesn't currently look promising. It won't take a lot of offensive aggression to turn Pence from a future centerfielder in Houston to a mere fourth outfielder.

    Mark Rogers - SP - Milwaukee Brewers - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: Agree with it or not, the Brewers drafted Mark Rogers fifth overall in 2004, one spot ahead of Homer Bailey. Rogers had become the de facto ace of New England after Nick Adenhart (number 101 in the rankings) went down with injury. Rogers had dominated his competition in Maine, and his fastball was up to 97. Concerns with Bailey's workload led to the Rogers selection, whose potential was seen as quite high. However, as is often the case with pitchers like this, raw doesn't quite do it all justice. It will likely be a long and gradual process before Rogers arm can throw a third pitch and handle a large workload.

    Skillset/Future: Five times this year, Rogers was asked to pitch in relief. This happened mostly at the beginning of the year, and in each appearance, Rogers was dominating. This is, I believe, his future role. In such an instance, his fastball should reach the high 90s, and his breaking pitch will have extra tilt. No longer will there be a worry of a change up. However, this is probably two years from happening, in which Rogers will likely mix great success with big control problems. I still don't like the Rogers selection in 2004, but if you put this guy in the bullpen with Mike Maddux, the results could be Rolaids material.

    Ricky Romero - SP - Toronto Blue Jays - 21 (A+)

    Introduction: For all the talk about Craig Hansen, Mike Pelfrey and Luke Hochevar this year, do we realize the first pitcher drafted in 2005 was Ricky Romero? While this was most likely due to bonus demands and such, the Blue Jays did not reach with this selection. Romero spent three years at one of the NCAA's most prestigious college programs, pitching for one team that would win the College World Series. Then, in 2005, he hoisted the team on his shoulders as he took over for Jason Windsor in the Friday Night role. Romero continued to succeed, showing fantastic control, and good stuff. Add in that he's a southpaw willing to pitch a lot of innings, and the Blue Jays interest isn't so surprising.

    Skillset/Future: How about we go straight from the source here? These are a pair of quotes from Rich Lederer's interview with Blue Jays scouting director Jon Lalonde:

    He's not what you would necessarily consider a true power pitcher, but he's not a finesse pitcher either. He's able to change speeds and locate all of his pitches in the mould of a finesse pitcher, but then he's also able to run his fastball into the mid 90s with a plus curveball and a plus changeup.

    We also believe his slider has a chance to be a real weapon for him. He's very aggressive and does a great job of pitching inside. But, in all honesty, as much as any physical attributes, it's his competitive nature, his will to win that really sets him apart in our minds. When Ricky does get into trouble on the mound, he shows the aptitude to make in-game adjustments and even pitch-to-pitch adjustments. That's not real common in a pitcher Ricky's age.

    Expect Romero to fly up the prospect ladder in 2006, passing plenty of Toronto pitchers that would fall in the 101-150 part of this list on his way.

    Marcus Sanders - 2B - San Francisco Giants - 20 (A+)

    Introduction: We all know by now that Brian Sabean isn't one to value an early-round draft pick. Annually, it seems that the Giants give up a pick by unnecessarily signing a free agent before his team declines arbitration. However, if the Giants keep making picks like Sanders, we'll forget it. Sanders was a 17th round pick in 2003, but after a year in community college, the Giants signed him in the spring as a draft-and-follow. He finished his first season in the Arizona Summer League, in which Sanders showed plenty of leadoff capabilities. You can bet that more than once, the Giants had to pinch themselves when being reminded that he was a teenager picked in the 17th round.

    Skillset/Future: Sanders' skillset seems very similar to that of Andrew McCutchen. The leadoff skills are all there. Sanders speed is nearly to the point of being called unparalleled, as he has an 87% success rate as a pro. Marcus has also walked 104 times in about 750 plate appearances, yielding two seasons with .400+ OBPs. What he doesn't have, however, is power. Sanders hit just 28 extra-base hits in 420 at-bats this year, and while that number might improve in the Cal League this year, his slugging should never be too far higher than .400 as a pro. It will take a lot of walks to offset that. Finally, Marcus split time between shortstop and second this season, but it is believed his future home is at second base. Look for Sanders to produce more of the same results this season.

    Ryan Shealy - 1B - Colorado Rockies - 26 (AAA)

    Introduction: Every year, the first base prospects seem to add a new, random face. We'll call him the flavor of the week. Oftentimes, this is an older player coming off a gargantuan season. No matter how sexy the White Sox made pitching, chicks will always dig the long ball. Mix Ryan Shealy and Coors Field, and you will see a lot of that.

    Skillset/Future: Enter Todd Helton. Shealy's largest problem is that he plays first base, a position the Rockies do not expect to need help. The team is planning on trying Shealy in the outfield, but it is not an experiment that should yield good results. He's just not athletic enough to play the outfield at Coors. However, it might be best for the Rockies to sell Shealy at a high point, fresh off a monster season at Colorado Springs. After all, this is a guy who doesn't walk a ton, plays poor defense and makes inconsistent contact. But man, oh man, can he hit a baseball far.

    Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies - 21 (A+/AA)

    I'm cheating here. On the day of the draft, my partner Rich (who has a history of attending LBSU games) wrote up a fantastic review of Tulo. I'm reprinting it here:

    The comparisons to former 49er shortstop Bobby Crosby read like a cliche at this point but they are apt. Plus arm and plus power for a shortstop. Tulowitzki has all the tools. Big, strong (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) modern-day SS. For a RHB, runs a respectable 4.25-4.3 to first base. Has excellent range in the field. Intense player with great leadership skills. Led team in AVG (.349), OBP (.431), and SLG (.599) and finished his three-year career sixth on the career home run list despite missing 20 games this year with a broken hamate bone in his hand. Proved he can handle a wood bat by tying for the lead in HR with four last summer on Team USA. Aggressive hitter who may need to work on plate discipline.

    That about says it all. Troy's potential is on par with about every player in the 2005 draft, as we heard rumors that some teams had him atop their draft board. His power should be prolific in Coors Field, which he could reach in time to make Clint Barmes trade bait. However, there are concerns with Tulo. As Rich said, his plate discipline needs work, and he doesn't make great contact. While his power and defense should be pluses up the middle, there are obstacles to overcome before I put him in my top 75.

    Merkin Valdez - RP - San Francisco Giants - 24 (AAA)

    Introduction: This is now the third season in which I'm ranking Merkin Valdez as a prospect. The first followed a season in which Valdez dominated the Sally League. I then ranked him 44th in baseball, and wrote:

    Don't be surprised if Valdez is converted to a reliever down the road, he has a very light frame and an undeveloped off speed pitch.

    He stayed at number 44 for a year, as in 2004 he pitched great in the Cal League before struggling at the other three stops in which the Giants gave him time. The Giants decided to try Valdez as a reliever, to which I wrote, "...since his repertoire only consists of two solid pitches, Brian Sabean could have been right moving El Mago to the closer position." Get the point?

    Skillset/Future: A lot of people seem to be delaying the inevitable, but I just don't see a future for Valdez in the rotation. His third pitch has never really developed, and a few more mph on his fastball (which a full-time move could provide) would do wonders in setting up his breaking pitch. The Giants seemed to lose faith in Valdez this year, never moving him away from Connecticut. If he remains a starter next year my hopes are not high for him in Fresno, which should do wonders in convincing the Giants what we've known for awhile: this guy is a reliever.

    Chris Volstad - SP - Florida Marlins - 19 (A-)

    Introduction: Every draft has the same argument, it seems. On one side, there is a prep pitcher with insane high school statistics. In this case, it was a senior season with 16 hits in 63 innings with 132 strikeouts. However, prior to this player, oftentimes you didn't know baseball existed in his state. In this case, Utah. On the other hand, you have a pitcher with less gaudy statistics. However, this player has been on draft boards for years, as a result of being the best in his state. And his state is known for baseball, often either Florida, Texas or California. In this case, Chris Volstad was Florida's best pitcher. The big states often produce the best results. I have had, and continue to have, Volstad as the best prep pitcher from the 2005 draft.

    Future/Skillset: Part of being the top talent is being the most polished. And Volstad is just that. First, he already has the height to be a Major League pitcher, standing 6-7 at just 18. As Volstad adds weight to the frame, expect his fastball (low-to-mid 90s) to add velocity. Not only does that pitch have potential, but scouts saw a lot in all four pitches that Volstad throws. His ceiling isn't super-high, as Volstad will be the type that doesn't allow walks and generates ground balls more than swings and misses. However, there is a lot of room for error with a pitcher who -- at 18 -- walked just 15 in 65 innings, allowing one home run. Of course, with pitchers, we know that kind of error could be caused.

    Over next weekend I'm hoping to do a mailbag article, so if you guys have any questions, please drop them in the comments below. Those that I don't answer right away should get responded to in a separate article on Saturday.

    WTNYJanuary 07, 2006
    2006 Breakout Prospects
    By Bryan Smith

    Last week, I reviewed the fifteen selections I made a year ago to break out in 2005. It turned out that I nailed some (Lester, Liriano, Young), was close on others (Burgos, Cabrera) and fell flat on my face with others (Pauly). In the end, I graded myself as a B- student, which considering the class, was a good thing.

    As a companion piece to my review, this week, I wrote the 2006 version of my piece at Baseball Prospectus. This year, I selected just eight players, all of whom I really like to improve in the next season. The eight guys, with just a brief description:

  • Homer Bailey (CIN) - 2004 top ten pick, Bailey struggled with command in the Midwest League. His two-pitch combination should allow him to take off once he becomes more refined.

  • Adam Lind (TOR) - No glove, all bat guy that was one of the minors more prolific doubles hitters. However, for about one month, he showed that there is plenty of potential for home runs.

  • Garrett Mock (AZ) - Innings eater that pretty much only retires hitters via the strikeout or groundout. A bad park and high BABIP should be corrected in 2006.

  • Christian Garcia (NYY) - Second to Bailey in terms of stuff on this list. Second to Mock in terms of K+GB outs. Could be first in Yankee system soon.

  • Reid Brignac (TB) - Like many before him, just could not meet expectations as a teenage shortstop. Late season finish showed potential that his bat has.

  • Adam Bostick (FLA) - A pitcher that has struck out a ton of hitters in the last two years. In 2005, his cumulative numbers were thrown off by a few bad starts.

  • Brad Harman (PHI) - Aussie teenager that had ups and downs in his first full season. A small guy with some pop in his bat, and could have the versatility to play anywhere up the middle.

  • Mark Trumbo (LAA) - Raw hitter with good contact skills and blooming power. Once doubles start clearing the fence, will be everything that Nick Markakis is -- minus some athleticism.

    Those are the eight. Please feel free to leave your own breakout candidates below, as well as discuss my choices. And again, if you want to read my reasons for selecting these 8, about 200-350 words per player, head over to BP. There are a few more players I like to breakout in 2006, and I'll have those in a forthcoming article.

    As for this coming week, it's top prospect week at Baseball Analysts. On Monday the countdown to number one will begin with 25 honorable mentions for this year's top 75. Come back and check out my list soon!

  • WTNYJanuary 03, 2006
    Breaking Out 101
    By Bryan Smith

    Welcome back to class. You surely remember last year, when I took the first test to this class, right? In fact, shortly before the season, I predicted 15 prospects for whom I forecasted big things for in 2005. While prospect rankings are very similar across the Internet, this list is different among everyone from Baseball America, to baseball executives, to me.

    Below, I have graded my first test in the course of Introduction to Breakouts. I'm extremely happy with the results, as many of these players will come back next week, as I count down my top 75 prospects. Much of getting the right answer on these players is luck, as I was more confident in some of the players I missed than those I got right. However, I told myself last year that even one or two right answers would make the article worth it.

    How'd I do? See for yourself. Below I go over all fifteen players, with a quote from last year's article, their 2005 statistics, thoughts on that performance, and a final grade.

    Nick Markakis (BAL)

    What I said then: "...things clicked in Markakis' last 225 at-bats. He hit .333/.400/.538, while striking out only 37 times. This is the kind of performance I hope to see from Nick in 2005, playing in the hitter-friendly Carolina League. There is no reason to believe, even with the acquisition of Sammy Sosa, that Markakis won't be the Baltimore right fielder in 2007."

    A+= .300/.379/.480, 43/65 in 350
    AA= .339/.420/.573, 18/30 in 124
    AFL .326/.408/.453, 11/8 in 86

    What I say now: This is a clear-cut example of the end of a season providing hints as to what will come. Markakis' full-season debut started out slow, but when he got going, he became one of the better hitters in the minor leagues. My guess that this trend would continue into the 2006 season was correct, as Markakis has become one of the uncontested top forty prospects in the game.

    As a whole, Markakis hit .310/.390/.504 this year, about 20 points of average below his final 225 at-bats of 2004. After a solid season in the Carolina League, he finished the season on fire in Bowie. Nick is one of the minors more refined players, and should -- as I suggested -- be playing right field in Camden Yards in one season. Like many on this list, he will feature prominently in my top 75 prospects, which will be announced next week.

    Grade: B. I wasn't the only one that predicted this, and Markakis still isn't top 25 material, but he certainly improved.

    Jon Lester (BOS)

    What I said then: "My other well-known favorite is Jon Lester, who some might call the reach of my top 75. At forty-eight, I believe this will be the season that Lester puts it all together. Endurance has always been a problem with Jon, sustaining his good numbers from start to finish. His stuff at its best is fantastic, his fastball was up to the mid-90s in Sarasota last year."

    AA= 2.61 114/148.1 163/57 10

    What I say now: Of all the players on this list, I was most comfortable last year with my selection of Lester. Like Jeff Francis the year before, I was so comfortable to put him among my top 50 prospects. This was extremely unique in prospect lists, and it paid off as Lester's stock skyrocketed in 2005. His season made him the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year.

    Like last year, the Red Sox are seemingly refusing to trade Lester, who has #2 potential in the Major Leagues. Dave Cameron at USS Mariner wrote a good column last week against Lester, but I think Dave is underrating his stuff. Few southpaws offer a two-pitch combination like him, and even fewer are as good in the H/9, K/9 and HR/9 ratios. If Lester can tighten his control, he should be a consensus top five pitching prospect. As it is right now, he seems to be right on that bubble.

    Grade: A. My biggest sleeper turned out to be just that. I'll likely be boasting his name for years to come.

    Chris Young (AZ)

    What I said then: "Compared by Phil Rogers of Baseball America to Mike Cameron, Young is the definition of a Three True Outcomes player. Strikeouts, walks, home runs. All are very prevalent in Young's game, and when you mix that with great defense, I believe you get a future Major Leaguer."

    AA= .277/.377/.545, 70/129, 32/38 in 466
    AFL .253/.326/.410, 8/25 , 3/3 in 83

    What I say now: Again, I'm tooting my own horn here. Last year, I saw a lot more in Young than I did Ryan Sweeney, and accordingly ranked him higher on my top 75 prospects. This move paid off, as Sweeney's power problems continued in 2005, while Young took off. He continues to be a three-tool player, sorely lacking in the contact and throwing arm categories. However, his faults are aided by fantastic power, blazing speed and superb range.

    It's likely that Young's inclusion in the recent Javier Vazquez trade indicates that the White Sox think his stock is too high. While I love Young as a player, I tend to agree. He still can be a better player than Cameron, I think, but his contact abilities should prevent him from ever becoming a superstar. This guy could make a great fifth or sixth hitter on a good team, but expecting a clean-up hitting Gold Glove perennial All-Star is a bit much. And it seems that's about where his stock is at these days.

    Grade: A-. His stock soared in 2005, and he should be a top 30 player next week.

    Elijah Dukes (TB)

    What I said then: "One of many Devil Ray outfield prospects, Dukes is truly second to only Delmon Young in the organization tools-wise. He walks a little, has some pop, makes enough contact, and has tons of speed. The problem? Make-up issues, ending in an arrest [last] offseason."

    AA= .287/.355/.478, 45/83, 19/28 in 446

    What I say now: Dukes' most significant weakness did not improve in 2005, though the Montgomery Biscuit managed to stay out of trouble with the law. Instead, Dukes kept it to the field, where he was ejected numerous times, and suspended once for his actions. While playing, however, he was about the best Biscuit in Montgomery not named Delmon Young.

    There is no real flaw to Dukes' game, besides his attitude, as he grades average or better in all five tools. However, he is not extraordinary in any either, which will make All-Star seasons few and far between. Tampa has significant depth issues in the outfield, and given Rocco Baldelli's winter extension, you have to figure that Dukes' 2006 season in Durham is simply a showcase to 29 teams.

    Grade: B-. I thought he might have Lastings Milledge potential, but in the end, he'll settle at being Milton Bradley, without Bradley's ceiling.

    Melky Cabrera (NYY)

    What I said then: "Melky Cabrera of the Yankees has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Bernie Williams [from me], with pretty solid skills across the board. He hit 38 doubles between the Midwest and Florida State Leagues, both in stadiums that don't exactly favor the hitter. As he moves to the Eastern league, look for some of those doubles to start clearing the fence soon."

    AA= .275/.322/.411, 28/72, 11/13 in 426
    AAA .248/.309/.366, 9/15 , 2/2 in 101

    What I say now: One thing I have to keep in mind is that doubles don't necessarily clear the wall more often with age. Sometimes, strength is needed -- in addition to gap power -- to start comparing people to Bernie Williams. Cabrera's season in the Eastern League began well, albeit without power, prompting the Yankees to attempt to fill their CF hole with him. This proved a bad idea quickly, and Cabrera was sent down, and never really recovered.

    At this point, it's unlikely he will ever be anything more than a bench player. However, he had his fifteen seconds of NYC fame, and sometimes, that helps build a 500 AB trial in cities like Kansas City . Melky needs to start drawing more walks, tighten up his defense, and keep his contact skills up to have a future on a Major League bench. Despite those obstacles, I'd still love him as a throw-in.

    Grade: C+. I'm giving myself a little credit since the Yankees trusted Melky at one point, but really, this is not a breakout.

    Alex Romero (MIN)

    What I said then: "Last year, Alex Romero of the Twins, had a .792 OPS in the same stadium that Kubel had a .761 in. Romero doesn't have much in terms of power yet, but both his contact and plate discipline skills are top-notch. Alex was also a star in the Venezuelan Winter League, and then later the Caribbean World Series. While projecting a Kubel-esque breakout is probably unfair, any development of power will make Romero a fairly complete prospect."

    AA= .301/.354/.458, 36/69, 12/23 in 509

    What I say now: Just like winter power did not hint anything towards Alexis Rios, the same is true with Romero. For that reason, I have promised myself to pay less attention to winter league baseball. Romero's 2005 season looks good overall, with an average over .300, an OPS above .800, and less than 70 strikeouts. Looking at those numbers alone, you'd think this guy could fill a hole in the Twin Cities soon.

    Wrong. I like Romero a lot less this winter than I did a year ago. His patience fell apart in the Eastern League, and given the environment in which he played, a .157 ISO isn't particularly impressive. Romero's defense in center was never great, and it doesn't help that he steals bases at something near a .500 clip. His well-rounded skillset should open a career as a fourth outfielder, with a Lew Ford ceiling, but it's probably foolish to be expecting much.

    Grade: C. Despite better numbers, Romero really regressed on the whole during the season.

    Francisco Liriano (MIN)

    What I said then: "Liriano, a power southpaw that came over in the A.J. Pierzynski trade, progressed well after just pitching nine innings with arm problems in 2003. In thirteen of his starts [last] year, Liriano struck out more than six batters, showing fantastic stuff. Both his H/9 and ERA were too high considering the rest of his stats, and for Liriano to be taken for real, both need to come down in 2005."

    AA= 3.64 70/76.2 92/26 6
    AAA 1.78 56/91 112/24 4

    What I say now: Wow. I thought Liriano was a good prospect, better than he was given credit for, but could I have seen this? Besides Justin Verlander, there was no pitcher in the minors that could come close to claiming he had a better season. Liriano's ERA in the Eastern League is high because of a bad BABIP (I'll get into that next week), which then over-corrected itself when moving to AAA. However, he showed all season long that Terry Ryan may have acquired an ace.

    As I saw at the Futures Game, Liriano throws only hard pitches, as everything comes above 85 mph. The great Major League fastball hitters could make him pay, as they did in September, but it's unlikely that will happen very often. At worst, Liriano could be moved to the bullpen, and turned into a dominant reliever. At best, he sits alongside Johan Santana and forms one of the best 1-2 southpaw combinations in recent memory.

    Grade: A. Liriano looks to be the cream of the A.J. Pierzynski crop, which is saying something, given Joe Nathan's career in Minnesota.

    Francisco Rosario (TOR)

    What I said then: "...Francisco Rosario of the Toronto Blue Jays, a power right-hander who spent 2004 returning from arm injuries. His power stuff was almost back last year, and we can expect it to return soon in full form. Rosario is quite dependent on his control, when his walks get up in numbers, he really struggles...look for the Jays to consider moving his power stuff to the bullpen."

    AAA 3.95 111/116.1 80/42 16

    What I say now: In a lot of ways, I thought Rosario was a similar player to Liriano. Coming off arm surgery, solid stuff, fallback as a reliever. There was a lot to like there. Unfortunately, I ignored the stuff reports that had been all over the place. While Liriano was back up into the mid-90s in 2004, there was a universal consensus that Rosario's velocity didn't make it all the way back. I assumed it would.

    It didn't. If it does, I still have faith in Rosario, most likely in a middle relief or set-up role. Otherwise, he also could put together a nice little AAA career, and hope to have some Amaury Telemaco-ish resurgence down the road. However, the most likely situation is that Rosario is simply mediocre forever, another victim of a sore arm. Forecasting the success of pitchers returning from injury is one dangerous game. In this case, it's a game I lost.

    Grade: D. Did not breakout at all, and likely sealed his fate as a starter.

    Ambiorix Burgos (KC)

    What I said then: "Last year in the Midwest League, Burgos struck out 172 batters in just 134 innings, while allowing just 109 hits. His problem? 75 walks. Burgos struck out more than ten batters four times, but also walked at least five on seven different occasions. Kansas City isn't the best organization to teach control (see: Colt Griffin), but they should make a point of it, because Burgos is one special talent."

    MLB 3.98 60/63.1 65/31 6

    What I say now: My assumption in putting Burgos on this list was that he would eventually become a reliever, and that is where his success would lie. If you would have made me guess, I would likely have predicted Burgos' rookie year to fall in 2008. However, in the midst of a few months, the Royals converted Burgos' great stuff to relief, and then with little warning, brought him up to the Majors. From a developmental standpoint, the Royals did a horrible job.

    But in some cases, the player is too good for an organization to screw up. Because try as the Royals might, Burgos really succeeded in 2005. In fact, with Andy Sisco, the Royals have built quite the future bullpen. Burgos obviously has serious control problems, but he also has a dangerous splitter that allows quite a few strikeouts, and very few home runs. A smart Kansas City manager would platoon close with Sisco and Burgos, as the two are solid foundations for a good future 'pen.

    Grade: B+. No one saw this coming, even me. I'm just proud, and shocked, to have spoken his name prior to 2005.

    Carlos Marmol (CHC)

    What I said then: "A former catcher, Marmol slugged just .353 in 502 at-bats between 2000 and 2002. Moved to the mound in 2003, Marmol had a great season in low-A last year, striking out 154 with a 3.20 ERA. He needs to cut down on the walks and be more consistent with the stuff, but the right seeds have already been planted."

    A+= 2.99 60/72.1 71/37 7
    AA= 3.65 70/81.1 70/40 10

    What I say now: More often than not, Carlos Marmol is referred to as a work in progress. This is what happens when the conversion between hitting and pitching (or vice versa) is made. For likely the next 15 years of his career, Marmol will be referred to as raw. However, I took the universal "raw" description as also meaning he had better stuff than he does. Don't get me wrong, the former catcher has a solid arsenal, but hardly enough to have a future ML career as a starter.

    If Marmol is to succeed, it's likely on the Ken Phelps All-Star Team, or in middle relief. I would like to see what would happen if the Cubs tried moving him to the bullpen next year, to see if he could add a few more miles per hour, and a little more bite. If so, he would be a very good relief prospect. Otherwise, as I said, the most likely career is one spent predominantly in the minors.

    Grade: C. Hardly on a lot of radars, but Marmol is a C+ prospect that had a very nice 2005 season.

    Sean Marshall (CHC)

    What I said then: "Marshall was fantastic in the Midwest League, with a 12.75 K/BB in 51 innings. He was hurried to AA, but suffered a hand injury before getting acclimated there. The team brought him back into the limelight in the AFL, where he labored a bit, but still struck out 16 and walked just two. He'll need a little more stuff to be a top prospect, so here's hoping that's what the winter provided."

    A+= 2.74 63/69 61/26 7
    AA= 2.52 16/25 24/5 1

    What I say now: Bryan, Bryan, Bryan. Did I really believe that Marshall's stuff would improve over the course of a winter? So much so that he might start to get mentioned in top 100 debates? I sure hope not. Marshall is good at what he's good at, which is to say a poor, poor man's Jeremy Sowers. He is a soft-throwing southpaw with pretty good breaking stuff, and enough pitchability to succeed. This is what happened at AA towards the end of the season, when Marshall had his best run of the year.

    I'm told the Cubs are quite high on Marshall, who I do believe could turn out to be a better starter than Rich Hill. Hill has a big safety net in the bullpen that Marshall does not have, however, as Sean doesn't have very great, dominating stuff. So, the Cubs will send him back to West Tenn in 2006, with the hope that he forces their hand into a promotion to Iowa. Who knows, but maybe in 2008, we could be talking about Marshall starting a few games on the north side. And if not there, probably for a different organization.

    Grade: C+. I think I might have been a year early on Marshall, but I do get some credit since his season ERA was under 3.00.

    Thomas Pauly (CIN)

    What I said then: "A former reliever at Princeton, Thomas Pauly was great last year in the Carolina League with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5:1. Combine that with a H/9 around seven, and finding problems becomes difficult. I could pick on him for that HR rate, but viewed in more context, it isn't even that bad. Don't be surprised to see Pauly give the Reds a pitching prospect they can actually brag about in just one year's time."

    NO 2005 STATISTICS: INJURED

    What I say now: Reds pitching prospects get hurt. A lot. At some point, we probably have to understand that this is not just some coincidental happening, but more of a trend. Despite quite a few good doctors associated with the team, good prospects go down every year in this organization. Pauly was just the next one, so here's to hoping Homer Bailey doesn't follow him. 2006 will be a good barometer to see how much of Pauly is left, but at this point, the prospects of a career in the Majors seem slim. If his stuff and great control returns, we'll talk.

    Grade: F. This is the risk you run gambling on pitching prospects.

    Andy LaRoche (LAD)

    What I said then: "Following a summer when LaRoche was named the Cape Cod League's best position prospect, the Dodgers gave him top-round money. Good decision. Once the average catches up with the rest of his skills, most notably his .197 ISO in the Florida State League, LaRoche should be one of the game's top third base prospects."

    A+= .333/.380/.651, 19/38 in 249
    AA= .273/.367/.445, 32/54 in 227
    AFL .352/.394/.451, 6/17 in 91

    What I say now: Logan White still hasn't had a lot of his guys succeed in the Majors. But, Logan White also continues to look like the game's best scouting director. This is what it took to turn LaRoche from a late-round draft pick to one of the game's top third base prospects. For much of the season's first half, LaRoche kept pace with Brandon Wood in the minor league home run lead, and was on top for a long time. However, a move from Vero Beach to Jacksonville all but ended his bid.

    While most see some colossal regression from high-A to AA, I think LaRoche showed a lot of poise upon promotion. Suddenly he became a disciplined hitter, a skill that would go a long way into covering any contact problems that he might have. What won't leave any time soon, I would think, is his fantastic power. Dodgers Stadium is a pitcher's park, but LaRoche really profiles to hit more than 25 home runs wherever he plays. With a little discipline, annual lines of .275/.360/.480 is a conservative guess.

    Grade: A. This guy could have been elected the governor of Florida at one point. Top 30 prospect.

    Asdrubal Cabrera (SEA)

    What I said then: "Cabrera is a middle infielder with big league defense, to go along with speed, selectivity, and a bit of pop (.155 ISO). His bat will never be fantastic, but with that defense, it won't have to be. Let's just hope that Matt Tuiasasopo, who is terrible up the middle, doesn't push Asdrubal to second."

    A-= .318/.407/.474, 30/32 in 192
    A+= .284/.325/.418, 15/47 in 225

    What I say now: Spectacular season for a guy whose bat scared me. He started the year in low-A, juggling positions, and still managed to put up a fantastic line. He showed great patience, better contact skills, and again, a little bit of pop. Once Adam Jones was ready for AA, the Mariners confidently moved Cabrera into his spot. At worst, if he couldn't give them Jones' bat, he would play defense as good as anyone in the Cal League.

    And that's what he did. Upon moving to high-A, there was serious regression in Cabrera's numbers, despite playing in a good hitting environment. What most discourages me is the lack of walks, as a smart hitter will walk more (rather than much less) when he is struggling. I also believe we saw his true colors in regards to power, as expecting a .150 ISO would be pretty silly at this point. His contact skills are great, he has versatility, and is a highlight-reel defensive player. There is a Major League future for Asdrubal Cabrera, mark my words.

    Grade: B+. Definitely made himself noticed, rising to AAA at season's end. I acknowledged his potential was limited (it still is), so the grade is a bit higher.

    Francisco Hernandez (CHW)

    What I said then: "As for Hernandez, he's a switch-hitting catcher reminiscent of Victor Martinez. His offense and defense both were great in short-season ball, and the true test will be this year, when his body has to take 100+ games behind the plate. That's really the only thing negative I can come up with his game right now."

    A-= .222/.292/.314, 13/29 in 153
    SS= .349/.405/.524, 19/25 in 212

    What I say now: Another note to Bryan Smith: stop with lofty, lofty comparisons. Melky Cabrera could be Bernie Williams? Francisco Hernandez could be Victor Martinez? Yikes! That is simply setting the bar too high.

    Basically, Hernandez excited me last year after becoming the talk of short-season ball. A teenage, mature, switch-hitting catcher? It's hard to not get pumped about a player like that. However, Hernandez showed that catchers are a tough bunch to predict. In his first exposure to full-season ball, Hernandez failed miserably. His walks and strikeouts were fine, not a problem, but his batting average and isolated power were disastrous. As quickly as they could, the White Sox demoted him back to short-season ball, where he dominated once again.

    2006 should be the year in which we find out whether there is power in Hernandez' bat or not. If there is, watch out. If not, then another one will most definitely bite the dust.

    Grade: D+. Another great performance in short-season ball indicates I could have been one year off. Still disappointing.

    * * * * *

    I tried to be a tough grader, and as a result, gave myself a B- average (2.64 GPA) with these fifteen players. However, if you ask me, classes like predicting breakout classes should really be graded on a curve. At least I came away from the class having learned something, as Cabrera and Romero teach me that it's always good to stay away from those moderately athletic, moderately talented players. And after Marmol and Marshall, I've learned loyalty doesn't have to extend to these articles.

    But really, I'm most proud of the 3 A's, as it feels good to have attempted to bring Lester, Liriano and LaRoche (should I just always go after the L's?) to your attention before 2005. However, I was probably more lucky than good, as for every Lester, there are quite a few Thomas Paulys and Francisco Rosarios. Another thing to keep in mind that these are long-term predictions, and in the end, it's possible that Francisco Hernandez makes me look better than Andy LaRoche.

    A true review of Breakout Prospects 101 would be incomplete without a review of the names I missed. Including any of these players on the list would have me on top of the world. Here's a look, with their 2004 numbers (to see what I was working with), in absolutely no specific order:

  • Joel Zumaya - Blazing fastball should help him build a good career as a starter or reliever.

    2004 A+ = 4.36 90/115.2 108/58 10
    2004 AA = 6.30 19/20 29 /10 6

  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Catapulted into #1 catching spot, as well as Braves future arguments.

    2004 A- = .272/.348/.437, 34/83 in 323

  • Anibal Sanchez - A good year for the Red Sox, who harbored Sanchez' breakout, and then sold a high stock this winter.

    2004 SS = 1.77 43/76.1 101/29 3

  • Brandon Wood - Any perfect breakout list contains the 2005 Player of the Year on it, without a doubt.

    2004 A- = .251/.322/.404, 46/117 in 478

  • Howie Kendrick - We really just had to believe that this little engine really could.

    2004 A- = .367/.398/.578, 12/41, 15/21 in 313

  • Adam Jones - Many thought Jones would be changing after 2005. But after his breakout, it's to CF, not the mound.

    2004 A- = .267/.314/.404, 33/124 in 510

  • Carlos Gonzalez - Scouts had liked him, but his numbers never told a good story.

    2004 SS = .273/.327/.427, 22/70 in 300

  • Jason Hirsh - Most teams wish his breakout had been in 2006, not 2005, as he then would have been Rule 5 eligible.

    2004 A+ = 4.01 128/130.1 96/57 8

    Who should I have seen coming from this group. Definitely Sanchez and Kendrick, who teach us at the very least, to respect fantastic numbers at the lower levels. Salty, Wood and Jones indicate that a teenager keeping his head above water in low-A is a noble task, especially those that were highly regarded coming out of high school. Joel Zumaya, I kick myself for not seeing, with his fantastic H/9 ratio, as well as a great K/9 when moving to AA. And finally, I'm not sure it was possible to see the last two players coming. Sometimes, Gonzalez and Hirsh teach us, breaking out is simply spontaneoous.

    In conclusion, there are a whole lot of ways to predict a breakout prospect. Sometimes theories work, sometimes they blow up in your face. But, you certainly can't hit the ball if you don't swing the bat. I'll be back in the batter's box soon.

  • WTNYDecember 31, 2005
    The Windy City's Year
    By Bryan Smith

    Forgive us if we keep bringing it up. We're not used to it.

    The Bulls might have dominated the 1990s, and the Bears 1985 season may have been one of the best ever, but this was something different. This was something unanticipated, something that no one saw coming. For lifelong Chicagoans, this topped it all.

    Cubs fans will look back at 2005 and remember a season in which they endured a lot of trash talk, and a championship that was as painful to watch as any in their lifetime. White Sox fans will remember it as payback, when their team finally was noticed, when their own curse was lifted. Unfortunately, at this point, I don't fit in either category.

    I am a Cubs fan. I have lived and died by the team for years, and I can honestly say (like all Cub fans) that they have provided me with true pain. However, I will never say that 2005 did, unlike many others. For me, watching the White Sox win the championship was not difficult, at all. It was a joy.

    When the Cubs had their run in 2003, I became a bigger baseball fan. I will never forget sitting in the stands on October 3, during the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. I won't forget the atmosphere around Wrigley Field, and moreso, the environment within. Mocking the Braves tomahawk chop is etched in my brain, as is standing and screaming for what seemed like an entire game. Most, I remember watching near perfection in the form of Mark Prior, as he out-pitched the legend of Greg Maddux, and gave the Cubs a 2-1 lead.

    As close as that game brought me to baseball, it cannot match what 2005 provided. 2005, like 2004 before it, began with the highest of hopes, as many predicted the Cubs to make the playoffs, and some thought the World Series was not out of reach. Like always, the White Sox were merely a blip on the radar in the eyes of the Chicago newspapers. And then something started to happen: the South Siders started to win.

    It started, fittingly, with a 1-0 win over my AL Central pick, the Cleveland Indians. Mark Buerhle would pitch eight scoreless innings, and a seventh inning sacrifice fly would be enough. A little less than three weeks later, the team was 16-4, and their pitching staff made the Cubs group of arms look like a AAA squad. Even then, we didn't believe in this team.

    No one could seem to get behind a team with such little offense, as their only true threat was Paul Konerko. We laughed at the fact that Kenny Williams dealt their other power hitter -- Carlos Lee -- to the Brewers, bringing back only Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino. No one thought Ozzie Guillen, with his big mouth and bunt-first philosophy, could manage a playoff team. Or that Don Cooper could keep a staff going at such a pace, pitching head and shoulders above the league.

    We didn't see that beneath Konerko, there was just enough balance for a decent offense to form. Or that the Lee trade allowed Williams to bring in players like A.J. Pierzynski, Tadahito Iguchi and Dustin Hermanson. Ozzie Guillen's faults overshadowed the fact that he was a great motivator, and with Cooper, handled a pitching staff (oddly enough) as well as any manager in the game. For months, this team was a sparkplug for pessimism. They seemed the opposite of the Moneyball philosophy, completely different than the lovable 2004 Red Sox.

    Instead, the 2005 White Sox were a throwback team. They won games their way. Four pitchers started at least 32 games, pitching over 200 innings. These four would all win at least 14 games, and prove to be the backbone to their playoff run. They also played defense, as well as the city of Chicago had ever seen. Aaron Rowand ran into walls, Joe Crede made diving backhand stops, and Juan Uribe went as deep into the hole as anyone. This was the team that defied the modern era, that made shutouts sexier than home runs.

    In the end, this really was a team built for the playoffs. Their red-hot start allowed for a slow (and scary) finish, but once this team entered October, they went to business. Fittingly, their first opponent was the Boston Red Sox, 2004's team of destiny. It began uncharacteristically with a 14-2 win, in which Jose Contreras' quality start was masked by five home runs. They closed out the series in Game Three, a sweep, beating the former World Champs at home. From this game, we will always remember Ozzie Guillen bringing in the decriped Orlando Hernandez with the bases loaded and a one run lead. And how can we forget what followed, when El Duque caused two pop outs before striking out Johnny Damon to end the inning, and effectively, the series.

    The White Sox run then moved on to the Los Angeles Angels, in which the series will forever be remembered more for controversy than dominance. After losing Game One in close fashion, the team got on the backs of Buerhle, Contreras, Jon Garland and Freddy Garcia. From Game 2 to Game 5, this foursome would pitch all 36 innings and gave up just eight runs. The play of these four, along with the likes of Joe Crede, A.J. Pierzynski and Paul Konerko was disappointingly overshadowed by the likes of Doug Eddings. But at the end of the day, the city of Chicago had their first World Series in a long time.

    This is what brought me back home. I came back to Chicago on October 22, 2005 to see the first game of my first Chicago World Series. And, I apologize for this Cub fans, it blew the Wrigley Field Division Series out of the water. Comiskey Park (its name will never change), which had been empty for so many games, was suddenly so full, so loud, so energetic. Sitting in my seat, an hour before the game began, it seemed as if each moment brought a new set of goosebumps.

    When the game began, the stadium was truly brought to life. We stood on our feet in the top of the first inning, as Jose Contreras blew away the Astros' biggest threat, Lance Berkman. Then again in the bottom half of the inning, when Jermaine Dye's solo home run ignited the 41,206 fans. Much of the game is now a blur, lost in the simple memories of sitting in the seats. This team had sucked me in.

    I can definitively say that for the rest of my life, no memory will top the eighth inning of that Game One. Bobby Jenks, who had become my favorite White Sox player, was brought in with two outs. Wily Taveras was on third, Chris Burke was at first, and would soon move to second. At the plate was Jeff Bagwell, one of the 1990s greatest players. Every White Sox fan, and hopefully every Chicagoan, was on their feet. And for five pitches, Jenks challenged Bagwell with triple-digit heat. On the fifth pitch, he won.

    Ultimately, the same fate would be handed to Adam Everett in the ninth inning to win the game. And just four days later, the White Sox won the World Series in the way their season started: a 1-0 win. The conversation I had with my father -- a lifelong White Sox fan -- on the phone, seconds after the game ended, is my baseball memory of 2005. The man who taught me the game of baseball, who I had always thought had seen everything the game had to offer, was floored. And so was I. I fell in love with that team.

    Forgive me if I change the Carlos Lee jersey I bought four years ago to read "Jenks." Forgive me if I find tickets to Opening Day, and join -- loudly and proudly -- in the standing ovation. And forgive me if I continue to root for this team to win 163 games per season (while losing 10).

    Call me a fairweather fan. I call myself a Chicagoan.

    WTNYDecember 28, 2005
    2004 Draft Retrospective: Top Ten
    By Bryan Smith

    In doing research for my article that appeared at Baseball Prospectus last week, I was reminded of the ugliness atop the 2004 draft. The faults of Matt Bush are now well-documented, and it's likely that even John Moores would throw in the extra money to now trade Bush for the likes of Stephen Drew or Jered Weaver.

    It seems to me that 18 months is about the first logical time in which a draft can be reviewed. At this moment, we feel quite certain in calling Matt Bush a bust, and Gio Gonzalez a steal. But, with the rest of the baseball world quiet, I thought now would be a good time to look back at the 2004 draft in more detail. In part one of a series (to be continued at a later date), I want to use today to look back at the top ten of the '04 draft.

    The top ten that year was flooded with pitching, as the college ranks offered a class that, in depth, rivals what it will bring to the table this year. While there wasn't much in the way of hitters, two high school shortstops were extremely well thought of among scouts. The top ten (plus Weaver and Drew) were the obvious first tier of the 2004 draft, as there appeared to be a talent drop-off shortly thereafter.

    In looking back at the ten players selected, I found four groups based on the type of player they were: high school shortstop, high school fireballer, a pitcher from Rice, and a small-college pitcher. Here's my breakdown of the ten...

    HIGH SCHOOL SHORTSTOPS

    Pre-Draft Buzz: To this day, I hold the belief that not one single Major League Baseball team had Matt Bush atop their draft boards. According to Baseball America -- prior to the draft -- at least one team had Nelson on top. So, how did Bush rise to the top of the draft, while Nelson fell to becoming the ninth overall selection?

    First, of course, was money. Bush was likely fourth (at the highest) on the Padres big board, behind what had been their final three: Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver and Jeff Niemann. Once ownership halted high-end bonus talks, the team had to begin looking past the Scott Boras crowd, into the next tier. Bush was attractive to San Diego both because of his bonus demands (or lack thereof - $3.1 million), and his hometown ties.

    The belief before the draft was that Bush would become the better defensive player of the two, while Chris Nelson had the better bat. Both had cannons for arms, though Bush's graded out better; he had pitched in the low-90s for much of the season. Bush also showed extraordinary range, leading some to deem him a future Gold Glover. His contact skills were solid, and the belief was that his other four tools would make up for any lack of power.

    Nelson's arm was a little less because of Tommy John surgery that preceded his senior year, and his range was just average. However, his bat speed drew comparisons (that have now grown far and wide) to Gary Sheffield, an ex-shortstop himself. Nelson was a very good hitter, with above-average -- though not spectacular -- skills across the board.

    However, a pitching run in the top ten (from 2-8) allowed Nelson to slide into thin air, as the Rockies nabbed him ninth. The club had been expecting Nelson to be drafted by either the Indians or Orioles, and while they had prepared to draft a pitcher, were happy to have the blue-chipper fall into their laps.

    2004: Short-season ball began poorly for Matt Bush, and ended worse. Before even beginning play in the Arizona League, Bush was arrested. This, of course, had followed a rowdy incident in a PETCO Park box, in which he and his friends had caused problems. Before his first plate appearance, Bush had doubters across the nation wondering if he was a bust.

    His play seemed to confirm that belief, as Bush started slow, and never got going. In 21 Arizona League games, the first overall pick would have just three extra-base hits. His batting average was below the Mendoza Line. There were some positives in his defense, baserunning and discipline, but the negatives outweighed the positives. Moved to the Northwest League, in hopes that a change in scenery would spark something, Bush was average in seven Northwest League games.

    The opposite fate happened for Chris Nelson, as many would wonder at the end of short-season ball whether Bush was the right high school shortstop at the top. Sent to the Pioneer League shortly after signing, Nelson registered 147 at-bats in 2004. His line: .347/.432/.510. In retrospect, we could have seen that his slugging was boosted by triples, that he struck out too much, and that his baserunning was poor, but that would have been nitpicking. Nelson began popping up in prospect lists; he was the flavor of the short-season fall.

    2005: While things went from bad to worse this year for Matt Bush, things just turned poor for Nelson. Neither was awe-inspiring, to say the least. Bush's season contained pretty much the same minuses that short-season ball had. His batting average wasn't there, as he hit .221 in 453 at-bats, despite showing good contact skills with just 76 whiffs. His power was among the worst in the Midwest League, with just 18 extra-base hits all year.

    Many of the positives from Bush's debut were gone. The Californian was rarely asked to steal -- just 12 times all year -- and was successful in just two-thirds of those attempts. His plate discipline was no longer a strength, as his 33 walks show promise, but hardly count as a positive. The only plus was his defense, as onlookers have told me that it was quite strong. He will always have the rocket arm and good range, it seems.

    Nelson's 2005 began late with a hamstring injury, as he appeared in just 79 games. Nelson was atrocious in those games, with little power, no contact skills, and mediocre defense. Much can be blamed on the injury, but even that has people bringing out the term "injury-prone." In all, Nelson hit .241/.304/.330 in 315 Asheville at-bats. Worst was his 88 strikeouts, which indicated that batting average might never be a strength.

    Future: For Nelson to be successful, his power must reappear in 2006. If it does, any contact problems will be overlooked. An increase in walks would be nice as well, though like Bush, it isn't currently a big problem. Nelson's ceiling isn't quite what people thought after 2004, but it's still his main draw as a prospect. He could turn out to be an All-Star -- especially in Coors Field -- though after this season, that doesn't look to be a good bet.

    As far as Bush goes, all bets are off. He'll certainly get more opportunities to succeed than the average prospect, given his status as a former #1, but he might just not be very good. My guess is that his defense and contact skills will carry him, and that the Padres will give him some at-bats off the bench. It would be in Bush's best interest to retain his 2004 discipline, to start stealing more bases and to add a few more positions to his arsenal.

    One player only has power to boast. The other has none, but could develop enough of everything else to at least come off the bench. Neither looks to be a fantastic selection.

    THE RICE TRIO

    Pre-Draft Buzz: Hopes were super-high for Rice University in 2004, as the school was armed with the best trio of pitchers in the history of college baseball. Atop that group was Jeff Niemann, who was coming off a 17-0 sophomore season. In basketball, Niemann would have surely left for the pros. His junior season showed why that would have been a good move.

    Injuries plagued much of Niemann's junior year, with a sore arm (and decreased velocity) becoming a continuing trend. His year was good -- a 3.02 ERA, 94 K's in 80.1 innings -- but not enough to cement his status as the draft's best player. Stepping into his role as the Rice ace, to the surprise of some scouts, was Phil Humber. The right-hander was the team horse, having pitched in 100+ innings in each season of his college career. His stuff was not as good as Niemann or Wade Townsend, but he was the most polished.

    Humber's rise left Wade Townsend as the consensus third of the three, though his ERA (1.80) was the best in 2004. Townsend had good -- not great -- stuff, but it came at the cost of some control issues. He could eat innings and had some upside, but he didn't profile to be much beyond a third starter.

    In the end, Humber went first, going to the Mets with the third overall pick. Niemann quickly followed, going to the Devil Rays, who were willing to take the risk. Wade Townsend would be chosen eighth by the Orioles.

    2004: Considering the number of innings consumed by these three at Rice, no one thought it a good idea for them to pitch in 2004. This belief slowed down contract negotiations, as Humber and Niemann weren't signed until after the season. Wade Townsend was not signed at all, and stuck, as he was also deemed ineligible to return to Rice. Like Luke Hochevar this year, Townsend was left between the Independent League, or working alone.

    2005: He would choose home, as the year -- before June -- consisted of just tryouts for Townsend. He was generally unimpressive in these workouts, but piqued the Devil Rays interest in the June draft, who sought to reunite him with ex-teammate Jeff Niemann. However, it's believed that had Tampa passed, Townsend could have spiraled nearly 20 selections before having his name called. He would finish the year quite poorly in the New-York Penn League.

    Humber's 2005 began with the most steam, as the Mets started him quickly in the Florida State League. His results were inconsistent, but the Mets were impressed with the control that Humber showed. At the same time that Gaby Hernandez and Brian Bannister were promoted, Humber was moved to AA. He would have just one (bad) start there, before his season ended. Tommy John surgery.

    Niemann's year was clouded with injury as well, as he was on and off the DL the entire season. He started late, finished early, and had time off in-between. While the work schedule might sound appealing to you, it certainly hurt Niemann's declining star status. His strikeout numbers in both the Cal and Southern Leagues were good when he pitched, but no longer is this the guy that touches 99 with that devastating, spike curveball.

    Future: Hopefully, a joint lawsuit. Humber, Niemann and Townsend (yes, I think he's next) deserve to sue Wayne Graham, their former coach at Rice. Maybe the likes of Miguel Ramos and Kenny Baugh (and how about Matt Anderson) could do so as well. Graham seems to be the Steve Spurrier of college baseball, creating a fantastic college atmosphere, while doing more harm than good for pro careers.

    Graham's abuse on young arms has slowed the career of all of these players. Humber should be OK, as Tommy John surgery should repair all the damage, and he'll be back to full strength in 2007. Niemann's arm is a big question mark, and many have speculated that Townsend could be hurt. The Devil Rays must figure this out, because if these two could be returned to full strength, this system would get even deeper.

    HIGH SCHOOL FIREBALLERS

    Pre-Draft Buzz: A situation somewhat reminiscent to the Bush/Nelson fiasco. It's likely that had 29 teams in baseball had the choice between Mark Rogers and Homer Bailey, that 29 of them would have taken Bailey. The exception to this is the Brewers, who were actually left with the decision, and came out with Rogers.

    Bailey had been lauded since early in his high school career at Texas, and was all over the radar before the 2004 season. That year, he had a 0.38 ERA with a K/9 well over 18.0. His fastball was explosive, easily in the mid-90s, and his curveball was among the draft's best. Bailey had walked just 10 in 72 innings, also showing polish that few do out of high school. He was a can't miss prospect.

    Rogers, on the other hand, saw his stock ascent solely in his last year. Prior to that, Rogers had been New England's second-best talent, as Nick Adenhart had left everyone else in his dust. When Adenhart went down with an arm injury, Rogers burst onto the scene by dominating his weak Maine competition. His fastball had touched higher radar readings than Bailey's, albeit not on a consistent basis. His curve was good, but again, not that of Bailey.

    But, oh yes, his price tag was lower. The Brewers drafted Rogers fifth overall, while Bailey would slip to seven.

    2004: Both players were allowed just tastes of pro baseball in 2004, as their organizations wanted to give them experience (of being away from home) more than innings. Rogers pitched in nine games in the Arizona League, totaling just 26.2 innings. His WHIP was high at 1.65, but there were positives in the fact that he struck out 35 and did not allow a home run.

    Bailey pitched even less than Rogers -- he had thrown more innings in his senior year -- with just six appearances in the Gulf Coast League. He also didn't allow a home run, but other than that was unimpressive: fourteen hits, three walks, nine strikeouts. But this was a sample-size for both players, causing few to back off their beliefs that Milwaukee missed out on the better talent.

    2005: Very similar, disappointing (on the whole), seasons. Both spent the year in low-A, and were handled quite delicately by their NL Central organization. Neither would throw more than 105 innings, and both spent time in a tandem-like system, appearing some in relief.

    I'll be writing a lot more about Bailey in the coming weeks (I think quite highly of him), but his 2005 season doesn't look great on the whole. He walked 62 batters in 103.2 innings, hardly showing the control that characterized him in high school. What did follow him to the Midwest League, however, was great stuff. During that time, he allowed just 89 hits, while striking out 125. Better yet, Bailey allowed just five home runs all season.

    Rogers was good and bad in the same areas as Bailey, but worse in each category. He threw less innings, just 98.2, because he missed time with a blister. He allowed more walks during that time: 70. His H/9 and K/9 were lower, as in his innings, Rogers allowed 87 hits and struck out 109. He also allowed 11 home runs, though it's interesting to note that all of them came in his final 75 innings of the season.

    Future: I actually still think highly of both players. Bailey has one of the best two-pitch arsenals in the minors, and should be among the game's elite pitching prospects in little more than a year. The Reds must preach control with him, and continue to work on his change-up, but Bailey has legitimate ace potential.

    In Rogers, I see a similar player as to what I saw in Ambiorix Burgos a year ago. This guy is a future reliever. He was best in that role in 2005, and it is likely his fastball could jump to the mid-to-upper 90s if just pitching 1-2 innings. The Brewers shouldn't limit him to that yet, but it also isn't fair to let him continue to struggle as a starter. His production early in the season should dictate his move-to-relief timetable.

    SMALL SCHOOL HURLERS

    Pre-Draft Buzz: These three tended to get caught in the middle. They weren't the best high school hitters, pitchers, or even college pitchers. They were generally seen as the second tier of college pitching, but more because of exposure than anything else. Justin Verlander, Jeremy Sowers and Thomas Diamond were all dominant college pitchers, not worked as hard as the Rice trio, but for some reason, did not have the same notoreity.

    Verlander quickly went to the top of this threesome because of a great pitcher's body, and even better stuff. His stock rapidly ascented after dominating rival Justin Orenduff, and Verlander single-handedly put Old Dominion on the map. He had touched 99 in his junior season, and with less baggage than the Rice trio (again, Wayne Graham), was chosen second overall by the Detroit Tigers.

    Jeremy Sowers pitched at the biggest school of the three, but was also the leader of the Vanderbilt program. There is no doubt that Sowers deserves some recognition for Vandy quickly becoming one of the nation's recruiting powerhouses. Sowers didn't have the great stuff that the other pitchers in the top ten had, but he was crafty and he had a rubber arm. He was quickly compared to Tom Glavine, like most soft-throwing southpaws, but for once, the comparison felt apt.

    Diamond went to the smallest school of the three -- University of New Orleans -- and as a result, was at the bottom of the barrel. He had developed quite a big frame while at school, and as a result, had boosted his velocity to the mid 90s. When mixed with two solid breaking pitches, Diamond had been devastating. Grady Fuson decided to pick Diamond ahead of a few high school arms that many thought the Rangers were considering.

    2004: Only Diamond was allowed to pitch of the three, as his first two years at college had yielded so few innings. Like Chris Nelson, Diamond did nothing but enhance his prospect status during his short-lived first season. Starting off in the Northwest League, it didn't take long for Diamond to distinguish himself as the best pitcher in the league. Five appearances, 15.1 innings and 26 strikeouts later, Diamond was moved to the Midwest League.

    He would have seven late season starts in low-A, where his ERA improved upon his Northwest League rate. In 30.2 innings, he allowed just 18 hits and eight walks, while striking out 42. Oh, and throughout his whole season, guess how many home runs he allowed? Just one. Diamond was suddenly the player the Orioles should have picked, in the matter of months.

    2005: Diamond picked up where he left off in 2005, starting strong in the tough California League. He was moved up to AA after 14 starts, as he was 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA. 53 hits in 81.1 innings, with 101 strikeouts and just three home runs allowed. Moved to the Texas League, his control fell apart, as he would allow 38 walks in 69 innings, and his ERA would bloat to 5.35.

    Jeremy Sowers had the opposite season, actually improving when moving to AA. He started the year in the Carolina League, and was moved up after 13 starts. Prior to that, he allowed 60 hits in 71.1 innings, striking out 75 and walking just 19. He also proved to be a groundball machine, so the team moved him to the Eastern League, where Sowers would excel. While his strikeout numbers worsened (70 in 82.1 IP), Sowers would walk just nine men and continue to provoke ground balls. He finished the year in AAA, where he'll start next season.

    However, no one's 2005 can trump that of Justin Verlander, who flew up prospect lists and quickly validated the Tigers selection. Starting in the Florida State League, Verlander quickly separated himself from the pack as the league's Cy Young. He left the league with the ERA title (1.67), and had struck out 104 batters in 86 innings. Reports of his three great pitches would eventually lead him to start the Futures Game. Verlander pitched great in the Eastern League, not so great in the Majors, and had his year ended early with injury. The Tigers have really high hopes for his 2006 season.

    Future: These three seem to still be in the order they were drafted in. Verlander's stuff separated him from the pack, as long as he can stay healthy. And while Sowers will never be an ace, he's an early safe selection for Rookie of the Year, 2007. Thomas Diamond has a lot of volatility after a bad finish in AA, but few players from the 2004 draft have seen their stock climb more in the last 18 months than him.

    In the end, the moral of the story seems to be that choosing the safer, cheaper pick is not the best philosophy when drafting. Sometimes it works, like with Jeremy Sowers, but other times it means missing out on a talent like Homer Bailey. It seems as if the Detroit Tigers made the best pick of the top ten, trusting their instincts in selecting a player that many thought was not one of the five best players in the draft. Looking back, we now know he's at the top.

    WTNYDecember 26, 2005
    Trading Futures
    By Bryan Smith

    One theme from baseball's winter should return today, as the Toronto Blue Jays are continued to, again, press the pedal to the metal. The organization's stated desire to add another bat should be fulfilled, as the Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to finalize a trade for Troy Glaus. In return, Arizona is acquiring 2B Orlando Hudson and the versatile Miguel Batista, also sending former first-round choice Sergio Santos to Toronto.

    Glaus will help replace the year-long hole left by Carlos Delgado, providing protection for Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay in the heart of the Blue Jays order. Troy returned from injury last year to hit 31 home runs, also showing the good defensive and bad contact skills that previously had characterized his career. All these trends will continue with a trip across the border, though fantasy owners should be expecting an increase in the RBI column.

    Santos will help add depth to the middle infield, where Aaron Hill is now moving to second base. I have never been high on Santos, but in the end, he could be a useful bat on the bench. Before a horrible 2005, he was thought to be the Diamondbacks future at shortstop. Now, a year later, he's stuck behind Hill and Russ Adams on the depth chart, left clawing for a hope of a future.

    Hill's move to second is very important for the Blue Jay defense, which is losing the Gold Glove Hudson. The additions of Glaus and Overbay on the Toronto corners should help minimize any defense problems, but Hill must be at least an average defender at second. This could be a problem, as the former first-rounder has spent most of his professional career on the left side. Watch this move to be one of the keys for Toronto in 2006.

    Speaking of defense, the exit of Troy Glaus and Royce Clayton leaves the Diamondbacks to endure a serious downgrade from their left side. In Hudson, however, the Diamondbacks acquired the game's best second baseman, bar none. His presence in the infield, along with Conor Jackson, should help offset the increased problems due from Chad Tracy and Craig Counsell - who will be pressed at shortstop.

    While Counsell is a fan favorite in Arizona, this move really signals his impending exit from the organization. His move to short will allow top prospect Stephen Drew time at AAA, but once he is ready, there will be no role for Counsell. Like Craig, both Hudson and Drew bat from the left side (Orlando from both), eliminating hope for a platoon. If the Diamondbacks are alive in the NL West in July (unlikely given the Dodgers full-court press), then Counsell will probably be kept as a pinch-hitter/sparkplug. If not, the D-Backs will likely be looking to trade their leader at the deadline.

    Even without Counsell, second base is overly accounted for in Arizona, as the free agent signing of Damion Easley covers Hudson's most significant weakness: southpaws. Orlando hit just .227/.286/.320 against left-handers last year, while Easley tatooed them at a .333/.390/.725 pace (albeit in just 51 ABs). A straight platoon would further worsen the Arizona defense, however, so expect Hudson to start about 130-140 games (buy his future, fantasy owners!). Those other 20-30 games should just happen to fall on games against the likes of Odalis Perez or Jeff Francis.

    In Batista, the Diamondbacks are simply eating salary. He will help by starting every fifth day in 2006, before taking his services elsewhere in a year. Like Orlando Hernandez, acquired for Javier Vazquez, Batista's role is to simply bridge Arizona until 2007. If there is a market for him during the season, and there should be, Arizona shouldn't hesitate take advantage of it. And, of course, the same rings true for El Duque.

    In fact, this trade was quite similar to the Vazquez deal. The Diamondbacks, in both deals, acquired versatile veteran right-handers to help offset salary, as well as to be traded again during the season. They also, as is the new rage in Major League Baseball, acquired two superbly-talented defensive players with quite volatile offensive skillsets. Hudson is a Gold Glover who has yet to really turn an offensive corner, despite showing bits and pieces of doing so. Chris Young is one of the game's top prospects, a favorite of mine, constantly garners comparisons to Mike Cameron. Such a comp is to say that Young will be great in the field, hit for significant power, and make very little contact. Their gloves, and offensive ceilings, are the reasons that both players feature prominently in Arizona's long-term plans.

    If the rumors are true, Arizona is also close to signing Jeff DaVanon, formerly of the Angels, to play center. I like this move a lot, as it is the definition of a low-risk, high-reward signing. If DaVanon struggles, Arizona can simply stretch their outfield defense by moving Shawn Green to center and promoting Carlos Quentin. If he plays well, then Green can be traded, presumably bringing in another big piece of Arizona's future.

    Simply put, this trade -- while filling important holes for both teams -- just opens the door for more moves. For Toronto, Glaus leaves a logjam at DH between Corey Koskie, Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand. The latter is likely on his way out, as I expect trade talks between the Twins and Jays to resume shortly. Expect Toronto to come out asking for Jesse Crain, and in the end, be left with something resembling Kyle Lohse and a prospect.

    In the desert, Counsell's move to shortstop creates a cloudy future for Alex Cintron. The market won't be huge for Cintron, nor will the bounty be. But teams with notable holes in the middle infield -- like the Red Sox or Rockies -- should take a gander at Cintron. And for the Diamondbacks, asking for the likes of Abe Alvarez is worth pursuing given their back-up plan: leaving Cintron to rot on the bench.

    Between Cintron and possible midseason trades of Counsell, Batista, El Duque and Green, Arizona should undergo major changes in the next 6-7 months. Conor Jackson, Drew, Young and Quentin are all on the verge of creating a Phoenix powerhouse in 2007. In fact, this team is simply a few pitching acquisitions (Green for Anthony Reyes?) from becoming one of the '07 National League favorites.

    The Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks, as represented in this trade, have had two different ideologies this winter. For the Jays, who sense fear in the Yanks and Sox, the goal is to win now. Arizona, on the other hand, is asking fans to endure a season of fine-tuning for the greater good. If you ask me, with these two plans, both sides win.

    WTNYDecember 23, 2005
    Diego Draftees
    By Bryan Smith

    For the second time this year, I have an article up today over at Baseball Prospectus. The piece is a review of the 1995-2004 San Diego Padres drafts, which tells us a little bit about how they should have treated re-signing Giles, Hoffman and Hernandez.

    Hint: historically, this is not a team that should be really concerned about adding compensatory picks, so they made the right moves in my book.

    Check out the piece over there, and if you have any comments, as always drop them below, or e-mail me.

    And of course, if you are at all interested in the 2006 draft, and the pitchers at the top, check out my first article.

    Merry Christmas!

    WTNYDecember 21, 2005
    Recapping a Busy Tuesday
    By Bryan Smith

    In past years, December 20 has been an early Christmas for some General Managers with the hopes of landing a second-tier free agent for cheap. This year, the presents under the tree are quite disappointing. It seems like, in this day and age, players bound to be non-tendered are often traded before reaching this stage.

    Fifty players were non-tendered on Tuesday, and some have (and will) immediately signed minor league contracts with the same team. When perusing the list, I found ten players that should generate at least a little bit of interest in some General Manager's mind. The ten, listed alphabetically:

    Joe Borowski - 35 - RP - 2005: Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Chicago Cubs

    The Cubs were unwilling to give Borowski the proper time to heal, and gave him the boot midseason. He paid them back by starting his stint with the Devil Rays strongly, setting a club record with 21 consecutive scoreless innings. However, that mark was made less impressive when he followed it (and ended his season) by giving up fifteen earned runs in 14.1 innings. There is a possibility that Joe Borowski will never again be a serviceable reliever in the Major Leagues. But if some teams are willing to give Rule 5 picks a chance to be their fifth or sixth reliever, giving Borowski a NRI is a decent gamble.

    Chad Bradford - 31 - RP - 2005: Boston Red Sox

    While his season was cut short by injury, the world's most famous submariner had yet another season with an ERA+ over 100 last year. Bradford is basically the right-handers' answer to the LOOGY, as his only talent is (and has been) an ability to effectively retire right-handed batters. Last year, he held RHB to a line of .282/.316/.310. A bad September will be noticed by many front offices, but they should also note that Bradford's best (and only full) month was August. Given the right role, Bradford can still be an effective member of a bullpen. He should be guaranteed seven figures (if just $1M) by someone.

    Jim Brower - 33 - RP - 2005: San Francisco Giants/Atlanta Braves

    Suddenly, it appears that once a pitcher passes his prime, one bad season will irreparably damage his reputation. From 2001-2004, Brower was a right-handed Ron Villone, a versatile reliever averaging about 100 innings per year. He could start, mop-up, middle relieve or even set-up. But things fell apart in San Francisco last year, and he was quickly shipped off to work with Leo Mazzone in Atlanta. The results were solid (shocking, I know) if unspectacular, and it will be interesting if the Mazzone Effect means that Brower will follow him to Baltimore.

    Eric Byrnes - 30 - OF - 2005: A's/Rockies/Orioles

    For five years, Eric Byrnes was a staple on the Oakland A's 25-man roster. It was the only team he had ever played on, and with his strong clubhouse chemistry, it was really the only team we could imagine him on. Suddenly, in the span of about six months, Byrnes has added two teams to that list, and stands to add a third soon. His peak has likely passed, but Byrnes is better than he showed in 2005. I've always thought of him as a poor man's Aaron Rowand, and someone in need of a versatile 4th outfielder, and accomplished southpaw basher should call Byrnes up.

    Josh Fogg - 29 - SP - 2005: Pittsburgh Pirates

    This guy should be a bad, low-payroll team's dream. For the last four years, Fogg has been freakishly consistent, and with his age, shows few signs of stopping in the next two seasons. You can easily expect 140-200 innings and an ERA from 4.30 to 5.30. It doesn't change. He has a mediocre, four-pitch arsenal, and has learned to pitch his way out of trouble (Minnesota knows him as Joe Mays). If Scott Elarton can get a big contract from Kansas City, someone should give Fogg a two-year, $3M contract. At the back of a rotation, he won't disappoint.

    Ryan Franklin - 33 - SP - 2005: Seattle Mariners

    Most of what I just told you about Josh Fogg applies here. Franklin has a broad arsenal, one in which no pitch is particularly effective. He doesn't strike people out. He doesn't have any upside. He can give you about 180 innings of slightly below league average pitching. But while Fogg at least offers a sexy age, Franklin offers the potential of falling apart. I would suggest he look into the salary difference between being a AAA ace and whatever job he could get away from baseball very soon.

    Trever Miller - 33 - LH RP - 2005: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Let me get this straight. During this winter, have we really seen Scott Eyre, Ricardo Rincon and Mike Myers get multi-year contracts? Was Steve Kline actually coveted by another team? In such a case, Trever Miller at least deserves a shot. The guy is not quite a LOOGY, as he has always been equally effective -- or in the case of 2005, ineffective -- against hitters on both sides of the plate. His slider is good enough that someone is going to give this guy a decent offer and not be disappointed. I would pay something like $750,000 for a trial run, that's for sure.

    Miguel Olivo - 27 - C - 2005: San Diego Padres/Seattle Mariners

    Man, the Padres must be really confident in Doug Mirabelli's abilities, or else think Bengie Molina is going to fall into their hands. But, really, if Yorvit Torrealba can bring in a live arm like Marcos Carvajal, is Olivo's market really non-existent. This guy was great with the Padres last year, after a horrible (and I mean really bad) run with the Mariners. He's quick, is pretty good behind the plate, and has some decent pop in his bat. If he could walk or make contact, he'd be an everyday catcher. As is, he should at least be someone's back-up in 2006.

    Ramon Ortiz - 32 - SP - 2005: Cincinnati Reds

    Cincinnati was a bad, bad career move for Ramon Ortiz. After watching Ortiz hang curveball after curveball, the Angels decided to punish Ortiz a year ago, and send him to a stadium where it would really hurt. The results were predictable, as Ortiz gave up 34 homers in 171.1 innings. I mean, did this guy really strike out 162 guys in a season...within the last five years? Crazy. A team with a committee for the fifth spot in the rotation, and a big outfield, should really consider bringing Ortiz in. The results could be Pedro Astacio-esque.

    Junior Spivey - 31 - 2B - 2005: Milwaukee Brewers/Washington Nationals

    Like Byrnes, it seems like we just blinked, and Spivey became a journeyman. Really, it was just 2002 in which Spivey hit .301/.389/.476. And if word on the street is correct, that could even be duplicated soon. Why? Well, because apparently Colorado needs a second baseman, and has targeted Spivey to fill that role. This is best for Spivey, as any stadium without an easing hitting environment seems to be too difficult at this point.

    Again, not a lot to offer here. I'd almost prefer the minor league free agent market, which in some ways, is what this will become.

    * * * * *

    The one team that has left many scratching their heads after Tuesday has been the San Diego Padres, who apparently had a case of second-thoughts when the deadline came close. Two players acquired this winter (Dewon Brazelton and Pete LaForest) were given pink slips, as well as two others that hadn't been with the organization long (Olivo, Craig Breslow). Very strange.

    San Diego brass has claimed that had they not traded Sean Burroughs to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, he would have been non-tendered. Basically, the Padres decided to non-tender Burroughs yesterday, dumping Brazelton. I thought Dewon could have a future in PETCO Park, but it appears that he will be forced to take his act somewhere (likely a AAA team) in 2006. Still, you have to wonder what the White Sox (who were interested in Burroughs, and ultimately acquired Rob Mackowiak) were offering for Burroughs. Could the Padres have acquired Damaso Marte or Luis Vizcaino?

    If Olivo didn't fit on the roster, which still seems odd to me, it's no surprise that LaForest doesn't either. LaForest is really a AAA player, a catcher that used to hit well -- no longer does -- and never was good behind the plate. Breslow looks like a pretty good LOOGY destined for Kansas City, leaving the Padres another hole in their pitching staff.

    These moves further indicate the Padres do not have a plan this winter, which contrasts heavily with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have rehauled their offense in the last month. The NL West was up for grabs, and the Dodgers seem to have taken it.

    Earlier this offseason, I mentioned that the Padres seemed to have the mentality of "2006 or bust." The acquisition of Vinny Castilla and the flirtation with David Wells were the driving forces behind this thought. Now, I don't know what the plan is. Trading Mark Loretta to the Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli was a big question mark, and by giving Josh Barfield a shot, seemed to indicate they were thinking about their future rather than 2006. However, the re-signings of Brian Giles and Trevor Hoffman -- two old players -- create some urgency within the organization.

    Another question mark was thrown into the equation yesterday, in which the Padres acquired three players from the Texas Rangers for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and an A-ball catcher. Both Eaton and Otsuka are free agents after the season, while Chris Young, Terrmel Sledge and Adrian Gonzalez are far from it. Now, you'd think the team was really geared towards the future rather than the present.

    Most people are giving the Padres the "W" for this trade, citing Eaton's forthcoming free agent status, as well as his outspoken reluctance to re-sign any time soon. Many say that the Rangers, by swapping Eaton for Young in their rotation, were not adding much. To this notion, I disagree. Over at the Hardball Times, we see that much of Young's season was because of luck. He allowed very few home runs, despite being an extreme flyball pitcher, and might even have trouble keeping balls in the park at PETCO. His second half seems to be a good start for a prediction, and with young pitchers, there is always the threat of injury. The Rangers were trading a pitcher destined for worse numbers in 2006.

    Eaton, on the other hand, has upside that Young can't touch. He was one of the NL's best pitchers through June last year, but injuries took a toll on the rest of his season. In many ways, he's similar to Kerry Wood, as both have eight-figure stuff and a ten-cent arm. If the Rangers could manage to acquire Eaton and Kevin Millwood, and harness the two properly in 2006, they can easily become one of the AL West favorites. Otsuka adds a dependable arm to the bullpen. Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge were blocked. The Rangers are going for it in 2006.

    As for the Padres, it's hard to tell. It's hard to say what roles they will find for Gonzalez and Sledge, or what they will do with the back of their rotation. They acquired plenty of good talent, but for me, it creates more questions than it answers. Los Angeles seems to have intimidated the team, who after jumping out to a quick lead seem to be backing off the 2006 race. However, would it really surprise anyone if the long-rumored Dave Roberts for David Wells trade finally happens within the next week?

    * * * * *

    The Red Sox had all their cards on the table. They were committed to bringing Johnny Damon back. In fact, this late in the winter, they needed to bring Johnny Damon back. Other options, like Brian Giles or Milton Bradley, secured their futures. Damon signed a contract with the Yankees yesterday for four years and $52 million, matching what the team gave Hideki Matsui.

    For months, Brian Cashman was saying all the right things in the Big Apple. Unlike the Red Sox, he wasn't committing to anything, except the possibility that Bubba Crosby could start the season in center. We never bought it. Cashman proved us right, overpaying for a leadoff hitter that should not be providing very good value in 2009. But he solved a few problems for 2006, specifically those at the top of the order and in center field.

    And, of course, he weakened the Red Sox. Their options now are quite limited. Convince the Reds to trade Wily Mo Pena. Trade for one of the A's outfielders, and pay a ridiculous premium. Sign Preston Wilson. Give Dave Roberts 500 at-bats. The Yankees are filling holes, the Blue Jays are acquiring five-star players, and the Red Sox are prepared to take a giant step back.

    At this point, the biggest mistake would be trading part of the future for a centerfield option. Frankly, I don't think the Red Sox will be winning the division in 2006. I would acquire Roberts for Wells, and give the playoff hero a full-season in center. Put Jon Papelbon in the rotation, and see what potential he has in that role. Use the money designated for Damon and bring in Roger Clemens. See if some magic can produce a Wild Card team, and if it can't, retool in one season. Who knows, at that point, Theo Epstein might even be back on the market.

    From the Yankees end, this move likely didn't take a lot of thought. Filling holes and weakening the Red Sox. You can bet that George Steinbrenner will pay a premium for that. When this team closes their winter by acquiring a defensive-minded first baseman (J.T. Snow) soon, they will enter Spring Training with one of the best offenses in the American League. No longer should the Blue Jays, and especially the Red Sox, intimidate them.

    * * * * *

    Step down from the ledge, Cubs fans, things aren't quite as bad as they appear (or as bad as they are for the Red Sox). Far and wide, there seems to be a general consensus that the Cubs are foolish and idiotic for handing Jacque Jones a three-year, $16 million contract. I see things differently.

    Jones is a role player. If this were basketball, he would make a mean sixth man. In baseball, he brings three key attributes to the table: the ability to hit right-handed pitching, good baserunning and good fielding. First and foremost, is the left-handed bat that Jones brings to the table. For his career, Jones is about a .290/.345/.485 player against right-handed pitching. Last year, the Cubs had a .748 OPS against RHP, and Jeremy Burnitz (the everyday RFer) hit .267/.345/.430. Both of those marks should be improved upon by Jones in 2006, who will (conservatively) manage an .800 OPS, with the ceiling of somewhere near .850. With a little more luck in the BABIP department, and factoring in his recent increase in walks, Jones is as talented a hitter against RHP as the Cubs could have hoped.

    Last Spring Training, Dusty Baker was committed to making the Cubs better on the basepaths. His plan, well, failed. Certainly, the addition of Juan Pierre should help improve those marks in 2006. But, don't discount the possibility of Jones helping, as well. Never an accomplished base stealer, his quickness should shine through when the Cubs attempt to advance runners from first to second, first to third, and second to home. According to Dan Fox, the man behind incremental runs (as found in the 2006 Hardball Times Baseball Annual), Jones has been one of the best baserunners in the Majors for the last five seasons. He had a solid 0.58 IR last year, and since 2001, he is at 4.92. He is among the game's 50 best on the bases. Burnitz? Well, his -0.51 finish in 2005 dipped his five-year total to -1.61, so he's a below average baserunner. This difference shouldn't make a huge difference in the 2006 standings, but it's a relatively ignored improvement on what North Siders have been used to.

    As we all know, fielding statistics are the question mark of sabermetrics. But, by most all metrics, Jacque Jones is quite the fielder. For some reason, Baseball Prospectus' numbers tend to question Jones' play in left field during the course of his career, but give him high marks for right field. The Hardball Times numbers rank Jones as the seventh best right fielder in the Majors, but also have Jeremy Burnitz at third, and Mark Kotsay towards the bottom of the outfield barrel. No matter what numbers you use, the outcome will likely say that both Jones and Burnitz are above-average outfielders. The effect will be minimal, but gone are the days of wincing to the actions of Sammy Sosa.

    It's hard to mention Jones, however, without calling to attention his weakness: southpaws. During his time with the Twins, Rod Gardenhire refused to bench Jones against left-handers, and he leaves Minnesota with a career .227/.277/.339 line against them. Dusty Baker's tendencies be damned, the Cubs must learn from this mistake for this signing to be successful. This transaction is simply not complete without the acquisition of a right-handed hitter for the bench. There aren't a lot of fantastic options out there, but if the Tigers found Craig Monroe off the minor league free agent market, the Cubs could surely find someone (Eric Byrnes?). And if all else fails, throw John Mabry out there, who at worst could give you an OPS of over .700, despite batting from the left side.

    Brian Giles and Hideki Matsui were free agents that were nearly unwilling to leave their homes. Milton Bradley came with baggage and a price tag the Cubs were unwilling to pay, which is also true for the likes of Bobby Abreu, Austin Kearns and even Kevin Mench. Reggie Sanders certainly isn't the world's best right field option. Simply put, I don't see a lot of options for Jim Hendry here.

    For the next two seasons, I'm confident in saying that Jacque Jones will be worth his salary if platooned. In the third year, he has a chance of doing the same, or at worst, becoming Orlando Palmiero version 2.0, with more raw power, of course. In the NL Central, soon-to-be baseball's worst division, Jacque Jones is not going to ruin any postseason opportunities. At about $5.3 million per season, the Cubs committed about 1/18 of their payroll for the next three years to a role player. I don't see a lot wrong with that.

    * * * * *

    In the world of tendered contracts, the Devil Rays re-signed Toby Hall for $2.25 million yesterday. All I have to say is ... OOPs.

    WTNYDecember 19, 2005
    Suddenly Suspect
    By Bryan Smith

    One year ago, there were three candidates for the title of baseball's top prospect. Since then, one debuted in the Majors, stuck, and lost his prospect eligibility. Another was one of the minors best hitters, and will be uncontested atop prospect lists this season. The third option, however, did not live up to expectations. The third option regressed.

    Andy Marte's 2005 season was a disappointment. Many called for last season to be the one in which Marte truly broke out, showing superstar potential, and finding a spot on Atlanta's roster. Whether it meant in left field, or Chipper Jones in left field, we all assumed the Atlanta Braves would find a spot for such talent. A season later, the Braves have no interest in finding a spot.

    Right before the Winter Meetings, in an interview with Talking Chop's Joe Hamrahi, John Schuerholz said:

    ...[Andy is] a primary dominant third base candidate for a major league team in the very near future, whether it be for our team or someone else's team. I mean this guy's total package, offensively and defensively, his power potential, and excellent defensive skills make him a legitimate major league third baseman. Right now, though, there's a guy named Chipper Jones ahead of him.

    In the end, the Braves were not willing to wait for "the very near future." Marte had his two-week trial to impress the Braves' brass, a la Jeff Francoeur, and failed. From June 7 to June 23, Marte was given 35 at-bats at the Major League level. At the end of the two weeks, his line read .200/.286/.314, and his destination was Richmond. Bobby Cox would give the blue chip prospect just 22 more at-bats all season.

    Suddenly, Marte is staring across from a lot more people in the other corner, the non-believers. There have to be doubts in the minds of the Atlanta Braves, who wonder if Marte's Major League debut was a sign of things to come. There are obviously doubts within the Tampa Bay organization, who might be among those who wonder about Andy's elbow, about a torn UCL. Many are wondering why, for nearly a fourth of his season from July 22 to August 20, Marte hit just .196/.304/.340. Or why he is, again, struggling in the Dominican Winter League so much.

    There is certainly a case against Andy Marte. Trading Marte, however, is a bold move. Too bold, and too hasty. Simply put, there is little precedent for trading a prospect of this caliber, this early. John Schuerholz has very little wiggle room with this trade, as its results could either make him look like a genius (again) or a fool. Trading blue-chip prospects for Major League role players is a dangerous game.

    Ask the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ask Tommy Lasorda, who needed a closer in early July of 1998. Lasorda, then GM of the Dodgers, traded a top five prospect for Jeff Shaw, since Eric Karros and Adrian Beltre were handling the infield corners. While Shaw was a positive influence on the Dodgers, the cost undoubtedly outweighed the return. Since that trade, the Dodgers have missed out on 206 home runs, or about 100 more than what Eric Karros gave the organization since then.

    In 1994, Paul Konerko was the 13th overall pick out of an Arizona high school. He quickly signed with the Dodgers, and had more than 250 at-bats that season in the Northwest League, in which he would hit .288, with 24 extra-base hits, 36 walks and just 52 strikeouts. At the age of 18, Konerko was showing good power potential, plenty of patience, and developed contact skills.

    By contrast, at the same age Andy Marte played his first full season in professional baseball. He was higher than Konerko, playing with Macon in the South Atlantic League. Marte's season was pretty fantastic for an 18-year-old, as he would hit .281/.339/.492 in 488 at-bats. His power was far more developed than that of Konerko, his contact skills (114 strikeouts) were fine, and his patience was coming. Marte was quickly deemed the Braves future at the hot corner.

    The Dodgers were aggressive with Konerko at 19, allowing him to skip low-A and allow his full-season debut to come in the California League. Konerko jumped at the opportunity, and started right where he had left off in 1994. In 448 at-bats, Konerko would hit .277, this time with 41 extra-base hits (19 HR), 59 walks against 88 strikeouts. He showed the exact same skillset as he had in the Northwest League, though the full season began to show his weakness at the hot corner. His bat, however, undoubtedly profiled to find a home somewhere.

    Like Konerko, Marte spent his age 19 season in high-A. While Konerko was playing in the hitter's California League, Marte was playing in the Carolina League, in one of the minors most difficult parks. He played great defense for a teenager at third base, not showing extraordinary range, but surprisingly solid with the balls he could reach. His offense pushed forward, despite the park he was playing in, as he hit .285/.372/.469. The declining slugging was a result of many of the balls that were once home runs turning into doubles, a fact that many thought would change as he moved up the ladder. The biggest news were his 67 walks, as he had become one of the minors more patient hitters within one season.

    The age of 20 would bring the Texas League to Paul Konerko, who would finally start to refine the potential within his bat. Konerko hit .300 for the first time at Double-A in 470 at-bats, and also started to hit home runs. Of his 54 extra-base hits, in 470 at-bats, 29 were home runs. He also would walk 72 times, providing an OBP that hovered around .400. Furthermore, his lack of strikeouts, 85, was a sign of just how gifted Konerko was with the bat.

    Double-A was also a good stop for Marte, although he didn't have the batting average luck that Konerko did, hitting .269/.364/.525. Missing time with injury, Marte hit 23 home runs in 387 at-bats. He also walked 58 times, keeping the patient eye that had developed just a year earlier. The only discouraging sign were 105 strikeouts, his highest strikeout percentage of his full-season career. Given his patience and power, however, Marte was one of the game's top three prospects.

    That would be true the next season for Konerko, who would really turn a corner in Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League. At 21, Konerko hit 37 home runs at AAA, giving him a slugging percentage of .621. His batting average moved up to .323, and Konerko finally walked (64) more than he struck out (61). His bat was hailed as the minors best, and while there were arguments on whether he could stay at the hot corner, some even preferred him to Eric Karros.

    Marte was different, as his AAA season would lead to his departure. Like Konerko, the move to AAA provided Marte with more walks (64) and less strikeouts (83). And while those were encouraging signs, his slugging 'dipped' to .506, and he hit just .275. To this day, Marte has yet to bring his batting average above .285 at any level. His real failure, however, was in the Major Leagues, likely a contributing factor to his trade to the Boston Red Sox.

    Konerko's Major League story is now history. The Dodgers would trade Konerko with a .215/.272/.306 line to the Cincinnati Reds, who would promptly trade him to Chicago for Mike Cameron. Konerko was a pretty average first baseman for five years in Chicago before exploding in the last two seasons. His patience just became an asset last year, fittingly in the season in which he struck out a career-high 109 times. A 30 home run threat before 2004, Konerko now has 81 home runs in two years, as well as a new, fat five-year contract.

    Trading blue-chip prospects for role players is a dangerous game. Barring injury, look for the Boston Red Sox to come out winners.

    WTNYDecember 09, 2005
    Rule 5 Draft Review
    By Bryan Smith

    While the Rule 5 draft had been drawing more and more attention the last few years, this year's crop was decidedly weak. we knew the draft turnout wouldn't be great, and in the end, it was even less than that, with only 10 teams making 12 selections.

    Each year, only about 25% of the players drafted in the Rule 5 make it through the year. What separates them from the rest of the pack varies, but it's definitely helpful to be on a team that has nothing to lose, and about 70 wins to gain. Here's a quick look at the 12 players drafted, along with the percent shot that they stay with their new organization for all of the 2006 season...

    1. Texas Rangers -- Fabio Castro (CHW/A+) -- LHP: 2.28, 58/79, 75/37

    This pick originally belonged to the Kansas City Royals, who opted out of the selection despite such success last year. Instead, they traded their pick to the Rangers in exchange for future bench player Esteban German. The Rangers got Fabio Castro, who I should have noted on my Rule 5 preview.

    In Castro, the Rangers landed someone who best fits in the Buddy Hernandez Group. It would be a waste to limit Castro to left-handed pitching, but he likely does not have the stuff or endurance to belong in Johan Santana category. So, Fabio should end up pitching in middle relief for the Rangers, where pitching from the left side will only help. What's interesting is that I've heard conflicting reports on Castro's stuff. What's confirmed is a low-90s fastball with good movement that is his bread and butter.

    What's debated, and will determine whether Castro returns to the World Champs or not, is the secondary offerings that Castro possesses. Baseball America noted in their Rule 5 review that Castro had a good changeup. What they didn't mention, however, was the fantastic curveball that futuresox.com noted before the 2005 season. If Castro has both pitches in his arsenal, he should last on a Major League roster. If not, it's more of a stretch.

    Chance of Lasting: 40%. His strikeout numbers weren't great in high-A, and some high home run numbers won't improve in Dallas. He will likely have to beat out Erasmo Ramirez in Spring Training before even talking about his Major League stats. Not especially likely, but the Rangers certainly saw something here.

    2. Colorado Rockies -- Luis Gonzalez (LAD/AA,AAA) -- LHP: 3.18, 48/70.2, 56/45

    On a day in which the Rockies traded last year's Rule 5 pick, Marcos Carvajal, they made their second straight attempt at acquiring a LOOGY. This time around they went back to the Dodgers, and got Gonzalez, who like Castro, had far better H/9 numbers than those for strikeouts.

    Gonzalez tends to keep the ball on the ground, and allowed just 4 home runs in 2005. Those two things will help when moving to the high altitude of Coors Field. However, Gonzalez must learn to better harness his fastball, which is erratic, and caused serious control problems in 2005.

    As a team, the Rockies pitching staff allowed left-handed batters to hit .295/.378/.460 in 2005. Many of the clubs top performers against LH (including Carvajal), save Brian Fuentes, are no longer in the Rockie organization. The team has brought Jamie Cerda in to help neutralize left-handers, but there is no reason not to spend $50,000 on insurance. Not a lot of upside in this pick, but he could fit a role.

    Chance of Lasting: 25%. If the guy had such troubles in AAA, at the hitter-friendly Las Vegas, what is going to happen in Coors?

    3. San Diego Padres -- Steve Andrade (TOR/AA) -- RHP: 1.97, 23/50.1, 71/16

    Of all the players that I did not include in my preview, I'm most upset about Andrade. I'm not sure Davis Romero wouldn't have been a better pick, but it's hard to beat Andrade's numbers. His season was relatively short, but when he pitched, he was among the Eastern League's toughest pitchers. And, New Hampshire isn't the easiest environment, so Andrade belonged in this draft.

    With that being said, shame on the Devil Rays for not hanging onto this pick. The Padres were the team with the most 40-man roster space, so this is a risk they can take. This risk is trusting a spreadsheet rather than a scouting report. Andrade has never been one to impress the scouts, with nothing more than a high-80s fastball and two average breaking pitches. But he's smart, and has rarely had trouble getting guys out.

    Chance of Lasting: 50%. The Padres bullpen will have a lot of competition, and Andrade will probably be 'battling' the likes of Dewon Brazelton and Chris Oxspring. I think he'll start on the team, I'm just not convinced he can last.

    4. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Victor Santos (MIL/MLB) -- RHP: 4.57, 153/141.2, 89/60

    An interesting pick, and the first of what seems to be a growing trend in the Rule 5 Draft. A few years ago, veteran Andy Fox was chosen after he had signed a minor league deal with a different team. Before the Rule 5 draft, the Kansas City Royals had signed Santos to a minor league deal after he had left the Brewers.

    What the Pirates plan to use Santos on is a question I have. The team traded Mark Redman at the Winter Meetings, but even after losing him, the team still has a loaded rotation. However, Santos hasn't been effective in a relief role since 2001, his rookie season with the Texas Rangers.

    Santos pitched far worse in 2005 than in 2004, despite having a better ERA. His K/9 decreased while his walks increased, yet it appears that Santos may have developed a certain veteran mentality for pitching under Mike Maddux. Santos has a wide arsenal under his belt, but really throws only one plus pitch: a big-breaking overhand curveball. It's interesting to note that for four seasons now, Santos has been worse against right-handed hitters by a 10-15% margin.

    Chance of Lasting: 60%. On a young team looking to solve their problems cheaply, the Pirates can afford a league-average ERA out of whatever role they give him.

    5. Detroit Tigers -- Chris Booker (CIN/AAA) -- RHP: 2.49, 45/65, 91/28

    Like Santos, this is another player that had been a minor league free agent prior to the draft. The Nats had picked up Booker, who finally thrived in a relief role, after his last season with the Cincinatti Reds. Booker had pretty extraordinary numbers last year, and looked as if he could me a minor league free agent steal by Jim Bowden.

    Not so fast, says Dave Dambrowski, with a pick that almost reminds me of one-time choice Chris Spurling. While Comerica Park is hardly a hitter's park, it appears that RFK might be the better fit for Booker, who had a really-low 0.45 G/F ratio last season. His home run numbers are down, a good sign, but those numbers are bound to change from year-to-year.

    Chance of Lasting: 55%. Same as Andrade, but with a little push because the Tigers are the worse team and Booker has better stuff. However, inconsistency has been a staple of Booker's career, so there is no reason to use pen on your depth charts with this guy quite yet.

    6. San Diego Padres -- Seth Etherton (OAK/AAA) -- RHP: 2.72, 93/112.1, 99/30

    Man, I'm going to have to start a new rule next season. This is the third straight player who was a minor league free agent turned Rule 5 pick, and the second in which the Royals lost. Etherton is also, like Booker, an extreme flyball pitcher, with a 0.46 G/F ratio in 2005. However, that will play in PETCO Park, where flyballs generally go to die.

    I would need convincing that Etherton is a better pick than Davis Romero, someone who would fill the same role for a club. While Etherton might be a bit closer to the Majors, Romero makes up for that difference in stuff, and has a better track record. Did the Padres just go with Etherton because of his age?

    Chance of Lasting: 25%. I really don't see this one happening, unless Clay Hensley gets hurt, or something of the like.

    7. New York Mets -- Mitch Wylie (SF/AAA) -- RHP: 4.50, 68/66, 58/15

    This is the first selection that left me really, really scratching my head. Wylie is pretty much a mediocre AAA pitcher at this point, and at 28, he's not getting better anytime soon. The Mets were apparently interested in someone versatile for their bullpen, and probably liked the good control that Wylie brought to the table.

    Still, there were about 5-10 relievers that I would have drafted prior to Wylie, who the Mets say is a sinker/slider pitcher. It's unlikely that any team from New York is going to keep a Rule 5 reliever on their roster for all season. It's even more unlikely when the pitcher is as middle-of-the-road as Mitch Wylie.

    Chance of Lasting: 1%. Not going to happen.

    8. Florida Marlins -- Dan Uggla (AZ/AA) -- 2B: .297/.378/.502 in 498 AB

    Really just a match made in heaven. After trading Luis Castillo for two pitchers last week, the Marlins don't have a lot of options for second base. It was rumored that some of their minor league shortstops -- Josh Wilson and/or Robert Andino -- would be changing positions, but it's not even clear if either player is ready. So, that likely will leave Uggla battling with Alfredo Amezaga for the job.

    If true, I actually like Uggla's chances. He's hardly as fast as Amezaga, and it's likely that he won't provide such good defense. But his true strength is his bat, which was one of the best in the hitter-friendly Southern League last season. Having an ISO of .205 in that league is a difficult talk, so I see little reason that Uggla can't put up a .260/.320/.410 line in a full season of the Majors. Given what the Marlins will be trotting out there on April 1, you can bet I'm in.

    Chance of Lasting: 80%. The Marlins need a second baseman, and could afford giving Uggla the part-time job.

    9. Minnesota Twins -- Jason Pridie (TB/AA) -- OF: .213/.275/.394 in 94 AB

    At first, I completely disregarded this pick, called Terry Ryan an idiot, and moved on. But going over this Minnesota roster, I'm not so sure Pridie is a horrible chice. In the outfield next year, the Twins will likely have Shannon Stewart in left, Torii Hunter in center and Lew Ford in right field. After that, there isn't a considerable amount of back-up.

    Pridie didn't play very much in 2005, so his numbers are extremely low. His contact skills were never great to begin with, and his batting average seems to overshadow a bat that probably has some pop. He also is a good baserunner, and pretty defensively fantastic in the outfield. On a team that isn't really filled with depth, and looking to spend their money elsewhere, Pridie could be a decent pick-up.

    Chance of Lasting: 35%. How bad does Terry Ryan want a Proven Veteran in the 4th OF spot?

    10. Boston Red Sox -- Jamie Vermilyea (TOR/AA,AAA) -- RHP: 3.65, 116/101, 76/27

    The back end of the Sox bullpen sounds pretty good, so it didn't make a lot of sense for the team to draft players like Bob Zimmermann and Billy Sadler, one-inning right-handers. Instead, they get Vermilyea, a groundball pitcher that had a good year between the Eastern and International Leagues.

    Whether he fits into the situation or not in Boston, I'm not sure. I would doubt it, given how full the bullpen is right now, especially just to check. Also, if the team managed to keep Jamie, it would be a double victory, as they would also be taking him out of the rival's roster. A good pick in this situation, but again, is Vermilyea a better pitcher than Davis Romero?

    Chance of Lasting: 15%. I know that Adam Stern did it last year, but really, Vermilyea's numbers aren't good enough to project a full season from.

    11. St. Louis Cardinals -- Juan Mateo (CHC/A+) -- RHP: 3.21, 99/109.1, 123/27

    Talk about stealing a player from your rivals, I'm guessing the Cubs were blindsided by this choice, as I did not see Juan Mateo on a single radar. Looks like a mistake from the numbers, as not one of those peripherals is bad; Mateo looks like quite the player. He's inexperienced, of course, and probably only fits in on a Cardinal team that, of course, has been sitting on their hands for most of the winter.

    Still, I have a hard time believing the Cards can keep anyone on their roster for an entire season that has yet to reach AA. Mateo is in for a big test next year, and I'm not talking about Big League camp...at Double-A. Mateo would have been a better pick from a worse team, but with the Cards, I'm ambivalent about the selection. He won't last, but he's almost worth the $50,000 just to bring to camp.

    Chance of Lasting: 40%. A decent chance, given the young arm, but still far from being really helpful.

    12. Florida Marlins -- Mike Megrew (LAD/INJ) -- LHP: Injured

    If Megrew had not gotten injured a year ago, forcing surgery, he would have been included at the back end of my top 75 prospects. I actually wrote him onto the list, and boasted about the potential he had being a southpaw with such good indicators. The injury will, without question, set Megrew back, making it quite hard to have him adjust on the fly at the Major League level.

    The kid's stuff was never particularly good, so who is to say what it will be like now. The Dodgers had to actually shut Megrew down in the Instructional League, though that could have been to save face more than anything else. What the Marlins are really hoping for is that Megrew stays injured, starts the season on the 60-man DL, gets off and gets some rehab time in the minors. A lot of potential in this pick, it's just hard to think that potential will be cashed in.

    Chance of Lasting:25%. The chance isn't very much better than Luke Hagerty last year, but the effort is a noble one.

    * * * * *

    And after just 12 picks, the 2005 Rule 5 draft ended, mostly due to 30 near-full 40-man rosters. This year's group wasn't the greatest class ever, and I guess that only about two players will make it through the season unscathed. Hopefully, the Marlins will give a shot to Dan Uggla, who despite being short, deserves a chance to prove that his bat is for real.

    That's what the Rule 5 draft is all about, finding that one diamond in the rough that can start for your team and show some serious upside. But after looking over Thursday's group, all I can say is that for that diamond in the rough, we'll probably have to Wait 'Til Next Year.

    WTNYDecember 07, 2005
    Winter Meeting Notes
    By Bryan Smith

    A few news and notes in the heart of the busiest week for hot stove action of the year...

    According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Marlins are close to trading yet another player in Juan Pierre, this time to the Chicago Cubs. The speedy leadoff hitter will reportedly bring three young pitchers in to the Marlin organization: Sergio Mitre, Renyel Pinto, and Ricky Nolasco.

    Before talking about the prospects involved, and the state of the loaded Marlins farm system, I want to talk about my Chicago Cubs. It now seems that the team was really counting on Furcal to sign, and has been in reeling-mode ever since. However, that is not to say that I don't like Juan Pierre, who should bounce back after having the worst season of his career. He should also provide to be a nice stop-gap for Felix Pie, who could use a season playing in Des Moines.

    What's next for the Cubs, now that the bullpen and leadoff spot are off the radar? Look for the team to zero in on a right field option soon, hoping to find a #5 hitter after Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Austin Kearns looks to be the best of the bunch, especially if Jim Hendry could put together a package involving Jerome Williams (and maybe Ryan Harvey?). Other than that, I'm not opposed to Milton Bradley, who sounds poised to thrive under Dusty Baker. However, the Cubs might as well wait until December 20, when Bradley will be released, to step up their right field efforts.

    As far as shortstop goes, Ronny Cedeno is fine with me, as long as he receives far more playing time than Neifi Perez. Cedeno would go straight to eighth in the batting order, but given the seven players in front of him, offense won't really be a concern. Instead, the team will focus on getting great defense from two of their four infield spots.

    And finally, no to Julio Lugo and Aubrey Huff. I don't even want to think of what Tampa is asking for those two. All I know is that it's probably more than Corey Patterson.

    This new haul of Marlins minor leaguers is their weakest yet, but also their deepest. None of these players would grade above a straight B, but none would be lower than a B-. Pinto and Nolasco both pitched well in AA, however, it was their second time around. Pinto has control problems, and has stalled in now two attempts at AAA. I've compared him to a young Arthur Rhodes before, and like Rhodes, I think Pinto will thrive when moving to the bullpen.

    The same could be true with Nolasco, though he has a bit more chance of succeeding in a starting role. Nolasco's groundball numbers were done last season while his strikeout numbers were up, oftentimes indicating an advancement in stuff. Like Pinto, Nolasco needs to prove it in AAA, but is on a similar timetable to Josh Johnson, the rich man's Nolasco. Mitre is not likely to be a starter for long with the Marlins, but he will begin in that role. Mitre will join Dontrelle Willis and Jason Vargas as the only certainties for such a spot.

    None of these players would break the Marlins top ten, which after trading Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and now Pierre, is among the most loaded in the game. Give Larry Beinfest credit...the man knows how to blow things up. Here's a look at the Marlins ten best prospects (subject to change):

    1. Jeremy Hermida
    2. Scott Olsen
    3. Yusmeiro Petit
    4. Hanley Ramirez
    5. Anibal Sanchez
    6. Gaby Hernandez
    7. Chris Volstad
    8. Travis Bowyer
    9. Josh Johnson
    10. Mike Jacobs

    The Marlins might not win a lot of games in the next two years, but they will compete with their in-state "rivals" for being the most sub-.500 team to watch.

    * * * * *

    From a good system to a bad one. Last week, I worried that Omar Minaya's wheeling and dealing would start to really hurt the Mets farm system. In fact, given how often they lose their first round pick, I was worried the system would become temporarily irreparable. It wasn't the Delgado trade to push me to such assumptions -- I loved that trade for the Mets -- it was the rumors that were following it.

    A few days after I wrote the article, Minaya unfortunately proved me right. The Mets General Manager traded two prospects (one to be named later), including top pitching prospect Gaby Hernandez, for the services of Paul Lo Duca. There are arguments for the move: that Molina/Hernandez would have cost more, that they would have had another year on the payroll, that they would have cost a draft pick.

    However, I would have signed Molina or Hernandez. Or, better yet, try and trade for some of the catching that is available, in ways that don't cost you a top pitching prospect. There is no question that Hernandez has flaws, that his G/F rate is too low, that sooner or later, he will start to allow home runs. Maybe when he reaches more advanced levels, as he hinted last year, his effectiveness will drop off. But he's the best the Mets had left, so they owed themselves the right to find out.

    Using the farm system as a trading device is not a horrible idea. Purging the system, and for players like Lo Duca, is a bad one.

    * * * * *

    As I write this article, Minaya is apparently close to yet another trade. But don't worry Mets fans, this time it isn't for prospects. Instead, the Mets are on the verge of trading Kris (and Anna) Benson to the big name-starved Kansas City Royals. In return, the Royals trade from the one area they have depth that the Mets lack: the bullpen.

    If this deal is completed, the Mets will have landed two pieces of their 2006 bullpen in Jeremy Affeldt and Mike MacDougal. People have been predicting Affeldt to turn the corner for years, and will likely continue to do so now that Affeldt will be paired up with Rick Peterson. MacDougal has been solid in two of the last three seasons, and is now entering what should be the prime of his career.

    Adding two players, as well as another in the next few days, create question marks regarding Aaron Heilman. The former Fighting Irish had his Ryan Madson-like breakout season last year in a set-up role. Does this trade mean that Heilman will take Benson's place in the rotation? Or, does it mean that he is on the trade block, either for a starter (Javier Vazquez?) or the outfielder (Manny Ramirez)?

    As for the Royals, the loss of Affeldt and MacDougal, as well as the addition of Benson, won't do a lot to change their long-term plans. Benson faces the challenge of improving upon Jose Lima's 2005 numbers, a task that most Rule 5 eligibles, much less Benson, could achieve. He'll join Runelvys Hernandez and Zack Greinke in the starting rotation. The rest is pretty much impossible to forecast at this point.

    Losing two players out of the bullpen will actually be OK. Andy Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos will be at the end of games, joined by Mike Wood, who pitched well in a relief role. Kyle Snyder deserves a spot, and rumor has it that Denny Bautista might even begin in the bullpen. Throw in an improved Leo Nunez and a Rule 5 pick, and the bullpen won't hurt the Royals chances of winning 63 games.

    * * * * *

    A move that makes sense for both teams? Could I actually be writing that for two transactions in a row? Quite possibly, assuming rumors that Sean Burroughs is headed to Tampa Bay for Dewon Brazelton are true. If so, this is a classic case of trying to rid two talented players of their environments, hoping that a move across the country, and across leagues, will help.

    Both players did not receive much playing time in the Majors this season, spending more time in AAA. Actually, Brazelton never pitched for Tampa, and was hurt for much of the season, making only five starts for Durham. However, the former top-five pick could succeed in spacious PETCO Park, which would fit his flyball tendencies well. It's unlikely at this point that Brazelton could be anything more than a relief pitcher, both as that would help his stuff and minimize his control problems.

    As for Burroughs, I'm not sure he'll ever succeed in anything but a bench role. Learning second base was a good idea for the former Little League World Series hero, as creating a utility infielding career would be a good idea. The other possibility is that the Devil Rays are planning to platoon Burroughs with Andy Marte, who could come over for Julio Lugo. Either way, it's likely that Burroughs won't ever do much to help the Devil Rays.

    However, this was not a bad move for either team, as return expectations will be very low on both sides. Can a change in scenery turn water into wine...or at least useful spare parts?

    * * * * *

    One place where that happens a couple times a year is the waiver wire. About two weeks ago, the Brewers made a waiver wire acquisition that I would like to point out. Since Doug Melvin has had so much success on the waiver wire, it's definitely worth mentioning.

    In the 1998 draft, Zach Sorensen was a second round choice from the prestigious Wichita State University program. He spent seven seasons in the Cleveland organization, moving to the Angels during the 2004 season. In 2004 and 2005 combined, Sorensen played 173 games with Salt Lake, amassing 646 at-bats. During that time, he hit .307/.378/.393, stealing 43 bases in 57 attemps, and striking out 103 times.

    Sorensen provides everything a useful bench player should. He makes a good amount of contact, and better yet, he switch-hits, so he'll make contact in any game situation. He can also run, providing the ability to pinch run. Finally, he's quite versatile, with the ability to play up the middle well, including the outfield. He doesn't have enough power to ever become a full-time player, but if Jose Macias can have a career, Sorensen should be able to do the same.

    * * * * *

    That's all for now. Rich will be back tomorrow with more notes, picking up everything that I missed. Leave any hot stove thoughts below.

    WTNYDecember 06, 2005
    Rule 5 Draft Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    A day into the Winter Meetings, it's time to preview the end. Annually, on the last day of this "Winter Wonderland," the Rule 5 Draft is held. The Major League portion tends to generate a bit of interest, as each year, anywhere from ten to thirty former minor league players get their shot.

    Need a review on what exactly the Rule 5 Draft is? For that, I go to Rob Neyer and his fantastic transaction primer:

    A player not on a team's Major League 40-man roster is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if: the player was 18 or younger when he first signed a pro contract and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft since he signed, OR if he was 19 or older when he first signed a pro contract and this is the third Rule 5 draft since he signed.

    A player drafted onto a Major League roster in the Rule 5 draft must remain in the majors (on the 25-man active roster or the DL) for all of the subsequent season, or the drafting club must attempt to return him to his original club. However, since a returned Rule 5 player must first be placed on outright waivers, a third club could claim the player off waivers. But of course, that club would then also have to keep him in the majors all season, or offer him back to his original club.

    Occasionally, the drafting club will work out a trade with the player's original team, allowing the drafting club to retain the player but send him to the minors.

    Of the players drafted each year, no more than five are likely to stay on a roster the entire year. However, this draft is so intriguing because of those that slip through the cracks. It's a time when a front office is completely accountable for their 40-man roster decisions.

    In the past, I have seen seven types of players given a chance on draft day. I will go through those groups below, with the success stories (or at least who I have deemed the group leader), and we will use that to preview which players could be called upon on Thursday.

    1. Scott Sauerbeck Group -- Given to southpaws who have little business being on a roster except for one remarkable skill, their ability to retire left-handed batters. If they do their job well, LOOGYs have a high chance of staying on a roster, especially on a small market team that could find better ways to spend one million dollars than Mike Myers.

    Named after: With the seventh choice in the 1998 Rule 5 Draft, as far as these records go back, the Pittsburgh Pirates nabbed Sauerbeck from the New York Mets. Interestingly enough, Sauerbeck had been a starter in the Mets organization, but it's likely that the Pirates scouting staff saw something that no one else did. After posting a 3.93 in 160.1 International League innings, Sauerbeck's 1999 numbers with Pittsburgh were sparkling: 53 hits allowed, 2.00 ERA in 67.2 innings. He has yet to abandon the LOOGY role in the Majors, and will likely pitch in his 500th Major League game before the 2008 season.

    Others: Steve Kent, Matt White, Javier Lopez, Frank Brooks, Tyler Johnson

    2005 Group One Candidates

  • Russ Rohlicek (AAA)- Like most of the players in this section, this isn't Rohlicek's first time being draft eligible. Does not throw especially hard, but a .213 average against and 2.47 G/F speaks much about his skills.

  • Bill Murphy (AAA)- OK, so Murphy wasn't a reliever last year. But either was Sauerbeck, and short stints against left-handed hitters might be the best way to get the most out of Murphy's good arm.

    2. Jay Gibbons Group -- Simply put, all bat, no glove. These players can hit the tar out of the ball, and most of the time, will even offer a lot of walks to go with it. Their offensive numbers are probably high across the board, there is just one problem, positions don't really fit. Most scouts believe these players can't do much other than DH, which tends to scare away potential suitors.

    Named after: Gibbons was chosen in the 14th round of the 1998 Amateur draft out of UCLA, where he had spent a college career being shadowed by Troy Glaus. He was quite dominant in the minor leagues, especially slugging .525 in the Southern League in 2000. The Toronto Blue Jays left him off the 40-man roster, and the Orioles picked him fourth in the draft. At worst, Gibbons makes a nice platoon bat, and has been able to get by in right field, and play well at first base.

    Others: Chris Shelton, Jason Dubois, Travis Chapman

    2005 Group Two Candidates

  • Vince Sinisi (A+/AA)- Has serious power, and does not strike out very often. Problem is, he's injury prone, and didn't adjust well to AA last year. His bat pretty much necessitates a pick.

  • Jake Blalock (A+)- Hank's brother plays the outfield, and not particularly well. He also strikes out a lot. But, he takes his walks and has serious untapped power.

  • Brandon Sing (AA)- His offensive numbers are fantastic, and his power is an enormous strength. But more than any other player on this list, Sing cannot play defense. At all.

  • John Jaso (A-)- Like Mike Napoli last year, Jason's catching skills are completely unrefined. He also is relatively inexperienced, but with the bat, he's the complete package.

  • Brett Harper (A+/AA)- 36 home runs last year. Oh yeah, but he also had 149 strikeouts. Oh, and he can't play defense. Might get a pick, but won't last.

  • Ryan Mulhern / Kevin Kouzmanoff (A+)- Big sluggers in the Cleveland system, with very few defensive skills. I like the latter more, as he could get by playing third base on some teams.

    3. Johan Santana Group -- High risk, high reward. These players are often starters in the minor leagues, and are chosen because they can throw the ball fast. Actually, really fast. They will likely spend a year at the back end of some bullpen, working with a pitching coach who can try to put it all together. If it works, the team will have one of two things: a good starter, or a helluva reliever. Problem is getting it to work.

    Named after: The most famous player to ever come through the Rule 5 Draft. The Minnesota Twins acquired the rights of Santana through the Florida Marlins, who chose him second in the 1999 Rule 5 Draft. Because of a loaded system, the Houston Astros didn't have room for Santana, who had spent the 1999 season in the Midwest League. His power left arm intrigued the Twins, who honed his skills delicately. At this moment, Santana has a good argument for being baseball's best pitcher.

    Others: Andy Sisco, Angel Garcia, Jorge Sosa, Wil Ledezma, Derrick Turnbow

    2005 Group Three Candidates

  • Rafael Rodriguez (A-/A+)- Combined, Rodriguez had a 4.74 ERA last year. However, his struggles were in the California League, as his stuff was quite impressive in the Midwest League. Arm has serious potential.

  • Matt Chico (A+/AA)- Like Rodriguez, Chico did not adjust to a promotion well. He pitched well in the Cal League, striking out 102 in 110 innings. He was well thought of before the season, and a camp tryout would not be the worst thing in the world.

  • Jose Vaquedano (A+)- In the Carolina League, Vaquedano held batters to a .224/.299/.366 line. His control is not great, and his K/9 numbers could be higher. But, again, probably worth a camp visit.

    4. Endy Chavez Group -- Oh, look how they run! Fast! And they can play centerfield with good range! Most of the time, these players happen to show off these skills at the same time they have a high batting average. Teams believe they have their next great leadoff hitter, and spend a pick on the player, ready to stash him away as a fifth outfielder. In a time where defense is viewed as being really important, these players have value.

    Named after: Really, when you hear the term 'fifth outfielder,' does anyone else immediately think of Chavez? He actually isn't a player that stuck the whole season, but I just think his name fits the best here. Chavez was taken right behind Gibbons in the 2000 Rule 5 draft, after hitting .298 with 38 steals in the Florida State League. His speed and left-handed bat obviously made the Royals hope he would become what Juan Pierre has. He was returned to the New York Mets after struggling in Kansas City, but subsequently traded back to the organization. He has now played in 436 Major League games, and has 55 career steals.

    Others: Glen Barker, Wily Taveras, Rich Thompson, Tyrell Godwin

    2005 Group Four Candidates

  • Gregor Blanco (AA)- Very young for his league. 73 walks in 401 at-bats. 28 stolen bases. Good defense. Yes, I realize he had 124 strikeouts and 12 caught steals, but I would love to have a hitting coach spend the spring trying to refine him.

  • Javon Moran (A+/AA)- Doesn't walk and steal as much as Blanco, but strikes out and steals less. No power, not enough walks to make a real difference.

  • Jarred Ball (AA)- Similar to Blanco, but older. 74 walks, 39 steals, 115 strikeouts, 18 times being caught stealing.

    5. Felix Escalona Group -- Oftentimes, these players are quite similar to the Endy Chavez group, except one thing: they play the infield. In fact, most of the time, they play shortstop. Chosen because they are quick, the players are almost always quite raw. They can run fast, and -- despite being mistake-prone in the field -- show off good potential with the glove.

    Named after: Another player that the Astros let "slip away." Well, OK, he has been that great, but he's the best this group has got, after now playing in four Major League seasons. Escalona was picked in the 2001 Rule 5 Draft, after hitting .289 with 46 steals in the South Atlantic League. The Devil Rays acquired him, not noting it was his sixth year in pro ball, and he had not played higher than low-A. He's becoming quite the little AAA veteran, and will undoubtedly never have a chance to raise his career OPS to above .600.

    Others: Hector Luna, Luis Ugueto, Jose Morban, Enrique Cruz

    2005 Group Five Candidates

  • Gregorio Petit (A-)- He has the potential for a good glove. He doesn't strike out very much, and walks enough. But, his offensive skills aren't great. Someone will probably take a chance.

  • Elliot Johnson (A+/AA)- Good at holding his own, and young. He's fast, and he can play the middle infield. But no walks and a lot of strikeouts.

    6. Damian Rolls Group -- Not every player drafted needs to be raw, not every player needs to have a high ceiling. In fact, it's a good thought to try and spend $50,000 to acquire a 25th man bench player. I'm not specifying whether the person is an infielder or outfielder here, just that the player doesn't profile to be an everyday one. But, certain skills like versatility and switch-hitting are looked highly upon.

    Named after: Like Escalona, a player the Devil Rays didn't draft, but they did acquire. Damian Rolls had once been a first-round pick in Los Angeles, but in four years, had just finished high-A. In the FSL, Rolls hit .297 with a .418 slugging, showing decent speed and good contact skills. And, he could play a few positions. Rolls played with the Devil Rays in five straight seasons from 2000-2004, playing about 14 positions during that time.

    Others: Jason Grabowski, Adam Stern, Andy Fox

    2005 Group Six Candidates

  • Drew Meyer (AA/AAA)- Since the Rangers keep switching Meyer's position, he's become quite versatile. He looked very good in the Texas League, doing everything OK, if nothing great.

  • Kevin Howard (AA)- Showed pretty good power in Double-A, and did nothing poorly. If he could play shortstop in addition to second base, he would be the perfect pick.

  • Brooks Conrad (AA/AAA)- Reminds me of a split between Howard and Gibbons. For clubs unsure of their second base situation, like the Pirates, Conrad would be a great pick.

  • Mitch Maier (A+/AA)- Could very well be the next Jason Grabowski. I'm not convinced Maier could contribute anything in 2006, as his AA struggles were quite real. But he looked great in the Cal League, and once wore a catcher's glove. That has to count for something.

  • Anthony Webster (A+)- Sort of a tweener, because he could also be in Group Four. But I think Webster has the makings of a pretty good fourth outfielder. He could play all three positions, steal 20 bases a year, doesn't strike out very much, and offers some pop. Definitely worth a pick.

    7. Buddy Hernandez Group -- Like the Rolls group, except for pitchers. They don't have a lot of potential, but they could fill a relief role nicely. They might be one-inning guys, they might be swing relievers, but somehow, they could fit into a bullpen. Most of the time these people will be right-handers, as the majority of your lefties belong in the Scott Sauerbeck group.

    Named after: OK, so the guy has not made the Major Leagues. But, every December comes around, and people are calling for him to get drafted. He did, once, in 2002, but did not last with the San Diego Padres. Hernandez came to the Braves as an undrafted free agent in 2000, and since has pitched about 300 innings in the minors. In that time, he has allowed 219 hits, 11 home runs, struck out 375 batters, walked 114 and has had an ERA of 2.34. He'll never be more than a reliever, but he constantly has people convinced he could be a good one.

    Others: D.J. Houlton, Colter Bean, Jeff Bennett, Luis Ayala, D.J. Carrasco

    2005 Group Seven Candidates

  • Bob Zimmermann (A+)- Dominated in nearly 60 innings in the Cal League last year. Has a mid-90s fastball, and does not let the ball get out of the park. With a little more control, he could be a good reliever.

  • Justin Pope (AA)- Another good closer that did not allow a good hitting line against last year. His strike out numbers weren't great, but it appears his pitches have more sink than stuff. A 1.69 groundball-to-flyball ratio, good control, and only two home runs allowed.

  • Davis Romero (A+)- Another groundball pitcher, and one who had a K/9 over 9.00. His control is good, too, and it appears Romero is quite versatile. The D.J. Houlton selection of 2005.

    * * * * *

    That's all for today. If you find any other players worth noting, please mention them in the comments. I will be back with a notes column tomorrow, and will then review the Rule 5 Draft on Friday.

  • WTNYNovember 30, 2005
    Old Get Older, Thin Get Thinner
    By Bryan Smith

    Omar Minaya is an early Christmas shopper, this much we know. On Black Friday, he officially announced the acquisiton of All-Star Carlos Delgado. Three days later, he did the same with Billy Wagner. Suddenly, the two largest items on Minaya's Christmas list were checked off. Many suggested the the team was close to checking off priorities three and four, as well, those being the catching and set-up positions.

    It is not unlike the New York Mets to spend money. This is nothing new to a franchise that spent it's way into the 2000 World Series. However, this time around, it appears the Mets could pay a higher price in the end.

    Consider the 2008 season. In this season, 2005 signees Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez will make a combined $21.5 million, at the ages of 31 and 36, respectively. New acquisitions Delgado and Wagner will make an estimated amount of $26 million in what will be their age 36 seasons. If the rumor mill is correct, than the team will also be giving $10-15 million on either Ramon Hernandez or Ben Molina, as well as a set-up man in the Tom Gordon mold. Nearly $60 million is already spent on veterans that will be past their primes.

    Jim Duquette was nearly run out of New York after trading the farm system's prized jewel, Scott Kazmir, for the wild and volatile Victor Zambrano. Mets fans complained that their GM had no eye towards the future. Yusmeiro Petit is no Kazmir, and Zambrano no Delgado, but the evidence is clear: the new regime is not all that different from the old one.

    The Carlos Delgado trade was an important one for this franchise. It was, in fact, a great trade, and one that any GM (with money) would make ten times out of ten. However, it's just another data point in a long list of the Mets dealing their future for the present. Sooner or later, these decisions will come back to haunt the Mets.

    At this point, the farm system is made up of one player and a bunch of question marks. With Petit gone, Lastings Milledge no longer has to share the spotlight with anyone. In fact, at this point, Milledge is probably the one player closest to being untouchable, as only the likes of Manny Ramirez could lead to his exit. While Lastings plays the same defensive position as Beltran, you can only guess that one of the two good defenders could move, likely taking over for Cliff Floyd in left field.

    So, we think the future has one homegrown player in it (oh, and that David Wright guy), but what's after that? Well, a whole bunch of questions, that's what. There is Gaby Hernandez, the only other player close to being legit in the system, though he suffered a serious second half breakdown. Can he compete in the higher levels? Can his G/F ratio continue to be so low, and Hernandez not allow any HR?

    Following Hernandez is Phil Humber, their 2004 first-round pick. Humber missed the second half of 2005, and will likely miss most of 2006, with Tommy John surgery. Can Humber bounce back from the surgery like so many have? Was he, supposedly the safe choice then, the right pick considering the types of talent behind him?

    Both Brian Bannister and Anderson Hernandez broke out last year, posting big numbers in AA and AAA. However, you have to wonder if Bannister's postseason numbers, pitching for the United States, is any indication that 2005 was a fluke. Or how about Hernandez, who had never hit well before last season. Is he just another in a long line of empty batting average players?

    You have the international group, all under 20, and none having presented much more than tools: Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Emmanuel Garcia. There is the lone Cuban, Alay Soler, who has received so much hype, but has been away from competitive pitching for so long. There are the bad-defending bashers, Brett Harper, Mike Carp and Shawn Bowman.

    Simply put, every player besides Milledge in the farm system has a large red mark on his resume. Milledge is the only lock for my upcoming top 75 list, though Hernandez will likely sneak in on the back end. Of course, all that could change if the Mets pony up, and sign Mike Pelfrey, who would rank ahead of Hernandez with his three plus pitches and considerable experience. Of course, it's hard to have a lot of faith in the scouting department, considering the lack of respect even their own organization gives them.

    In three of the last four years, Mets signings have prevented them from having a second or third-round pick. The exception was 2004, in which the Mets were able to draft Gaby Hernandez in the third round. The Mets should also look at their 2001 draft as proof that more than one draft pick can be beneficial. While the team used their first pick on Aaron Heilman, a supplemental choice was what allowed them to draft David Wright.

    The problem is one of philosophy. If the Mets can sign marquee free agents, they surely shouldn't hesitate because they will lose a draft pick. But there is no question that, after considering the evidence, that the front office has historically attacked the free agent market in a wrong, anti-Moneyball fashion. This season, Mike Piazza's exit will help make up for the draft pick lost for signing Billy Wagner. But, of course, there is the forthcoming catcher and set-up signings that should leave the Mets empty in the middle rounds...again.

    The Amazins need to look no farther than across town to see the damage that their philosophies can cause. While the Yankees managed to win yet another division title last year, they did so with using anything left from their farm system. Old players continued to break down, contracts continued to pile up, and prospects continued to be traded. There is no question in my mind that had the Yankees traded Robinson Cano and/or Chien-Ming Wang before the 2005 season, the division title would have gone to a different team.

    Rather than getting advice from their cross-town rivals, the Mets should be admiring the work of their division rivals. The Atlanta Braves are the perfect example of blending a farm system with Major League acquisitions. If the Mets could find a way to do this, and in a richer style at that, their success could undoubtedly be longer lasting than what they are currently looking at.

    But that is going to take yet another front office upheaval, which few people see coming. Omar Minaya is spending money like a trust fund baby, the problem is that in the end, his signees will end up even more spoiled.

    WTNYNovember 29, 2005
    Dismantling Done Right
    By Bryan Smith

    Ken Williams has set a deadline for the Winter Meetings. The Angels have apparently offered Paul Konerko a five-year, $60 million contract. The Orioles are talking about adding a sixth year onto their offer. The Red Sox remain interested.

    The writing is on the wall. And Sox fans, don't worry, it's not bad. At this point, signing Konerko would be a bad mistake.

    Many Sox fans will tell you that the key to the 2005 season was trading Carlos Lee. Yes, they lost one of their most powerful sluggers, who would move to Milwaukee and post an .811 OPS. But, in return, the White Sox landed sparkplug Scott Podsednik, a 65-game reliever in Luis Vizcaino and enough money to sign Tadahito Iguchi, Orlando Hernandez and Dustin Hermanson. At the time, we hated the trade. At the time, we undervalued the importance of money.

    We learn history to avoid repeating our mistakes. To sign Paul Konerko, the White Sox will likely have to pay the slugger at least $13 million for the next five seasons. This is a price that is simply too high for a player with such a limited skillset.

    Pardon me, I don't want to do Konerko any injustices. As a hitter, Konerko is well above-average. In 2005, he led the White Sox in both slugging percentage and on-base percentage, in both extra-base hits and walks. Since coming to the Sox in 1999, there has been only one season in which he did not post an OPS higher than .840.

    However, when factoring in regression and age, it's not hard to see a decrease in Konerko's offensive skills. At that point, surely his bat will not be able to make up for the other facets of the game, in which Konerko is a burden on the White Sox.

    Another 2005 key, as we have heard time and time again, was the Sox improvements on defense and the bases. In both of these areas, Konerko hurts the White Sox. First, we'll start with fielding. In the last five seasons, Baseball Prospectus has found PK to be above average just twice. In 2004, MGL's great UZR stat had Konerko at an abysmal, and league low -17. Without question, Konerko's defense improved in the 2005 season. Unfortunately, he will never possess good range, and as he ages, any improvements will likely be lost.

    Onto the bases. Again, I don't really have 2005 numbers yet, as I couldn't find Konerko in the Bill James Handbook, and have not yet received the Hardball Times Baseball Annual, with Dan Fox's baserunning numbers (feel free to leave numbers from either in the comments). We do, however, have numbers from the past seasons. Fox's Incremental Runs stat has been compiled from 2000-2004, in which Konerko ranks low. His IR was just -3.73 in those seasons, and from the looks of things, 2005 could not have been much better.

    Good on offense, bad in the field and on the bases. And in all cases, adding five years to a body that turns 30 in Spring Training will only hurt Konerko in all facets of the game.

    So, assuming the Sox lose Konerko (as Will Carroll opines), what comes next? Surely, the Sox wouldn't dare use Jim Thome, the one player worse than Konerko in 2004 UZR (-21) at first, would they? Let's hope not. In fact, I would propose the White Sox look to solve their problems in the same way they did a year ago: from the Milwaukee Brewers.

    The Sox need someone to play first base who will help both offset the damage done by losing Konerko in the lineup, and Aaron Rowand in the field. They need someone who will be solid offensively, but help the White Sox improve both defensively and from a baserunning perspective. They also don't want to overpay.

    Lyle Overbay. The left-handed first baseman for the Brewers, soon to be pushed out by Prince Fielder, who has posted OPS numbers of .863 and .816 each of the last two seasons. The former Diamondback farmhand that will turn 29 in January, but will only enter arbitration this year. The player who was, by Bill James' measures, as good a baserunner as Aaron Rowand in 2005, and better than average (by Dan Fox's measures) in 2003 and 2004. The fielder that David Gassko mentioned fell second to Nick Johnson in his 2005 Gold Gloves, and who Baseball Prospectus has given positive remarks on in each of the last three seasons.

    In 2005, Paul Konerko posted a VORP of 56.4, more than 20 points better than Overbay. In 2004, Overbay was about five points ahead. Going forward, you have to like Overbay's chances to compete, especially in a stadium in which James ranked the second easiest for left-handed home runs from 2003-2005. And remember, Overbay probably is about 10-20 runs better per season than Konerko in the field and on the bases.

    So, what would I do in Williams shoes? Announce that Konerko has been priced out of your budget at the Winter Meetings, shortly before acquiring Overbay for Brandon McCarthy, Damaso Marte and a prospect (Jerry Owens? Robert Valido?). Then, sign Overbay through his arbitration years, a four-year, $25 million contract, with annual numbers of about $5M, $6, $7 and $7 million.

    First, why would the Brewers not make this trade? In the trade, they likely free a bit of payroll by losing Overbay for Prince, and landing a $300,000 starting pitcher. Oh, and not just any starting pitcher, but Brandon McCarthy, who would look really good alongside Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano and Doug Davis in the Milwaukee rotation. They also get Damaso Marte, who appeared in 60+ games in 2005 for the fourth straight season. Last year, just one Brewer (Derrick Turnbow) appeared in more than 50 games. Finally, on top of all that, they land a B- offensive prospect, someone who could likely fill a bench role down the road.

    For the White Sox, this would be a great trade. In 2005, the White Sox production from the first base and Designated Hitter spots combined was about .260/.335/.475. By making this trade, Ken Williams would be asking Lyle Overbay and Jim Thome to beat that line, which they probably could by adding almost thirty runs. And, as another reminder, don't forget what replacing Konerko and Frank Thomas on the basepaths will do.

    Yes, in this proposed trade, Chicago would lose its penciled-in fifth starter, as well as a back-end reliever. However, this is where the dollars saved by acquiring Overbay pays off. Without including Marte, the Sox have ten returning members to their pitching staff next season. They could also choose to add Jeff Bajenaru, one of the International League's most dangerous relievers in 2005. For the twelfth spot, Williams would have the money to sign nearly anyone, who would likely (along with El Duque) straddle the fifth starter/seventh reliever spot next year.

    Ken Williams had the audacity to trade Aaron Rowand, despite his presence on the World Championship roster. In that trade, Williams saw both the opportunity to acquire Thome, as well as giving Brian Anderson a shot at out-producing Rowand (offensively) in center. Williams must use the same methodology when considering Konerko, who at this point does not deserve to return to the South Side.

    After winning the World Series, a front office must remember what got them there, not who; loyalty can only go so far. While it might not look as sexy to the sportswriters, Lyle Overbay is this offseason's answer, not Paul Konerko.

    WTNYNovember 25, 2005
    Between the Lines
    By Bryan Smith

    Sometimes, it is the moves a General Manager does not make that tells us the most about him. For the Texas Rangers, Hank Blalock was not the problem. He was, and will continue to be, shopped on the open market. However, it was the other Marlin demand that prevented the Rangers from adding potential ace Josh Beckett. Simply put, new GM Jon Daniels would not tear apart the Texas trio.

    For about as long as the Colorado Rockies, Texas has struggled to find good pitching to match their powerful offense. Adding arms to the mix has been the focal point of the scouting department since before Grady Fuson. After years of failing, and after years of compiling, the current crop looks to be the most dangerous yet. When push came to shove, there was just no way that Daniels could break up D(anks)-V(olquez)-D(iamond).

    John Danks was the first of the three to make noise in the organization after they drafted the southpaw with the ninth overall choice in the 2003 draft. Danks had a big fastball, a left arm, and Texas ties, making him attractive (despite his status as a high school pitcher) to Fuson in his first draft. He was then selected to play in the 2004 Futures Game, after which I wrote, "Danks pitched slower than some reports had him, throwing between 89-92, and showcasing a curveball he left up quite often."

    That Futures Game interrupted an up-and-down first full season for Danks. Before the midseason All-Star Game, Danks had rummaged through the Midwest League. At 19, Danks had a 2.17 ERA in 14 appearances, combining a 1.05 WHIP with a better 11.6 K/9. He had everything. Well, except the moxie to succeed in the California League. Finishing the season at high-A, Danks saw his numbers universally rise, including (most significantly) his ERA of 5.24.

    This season was the same story, just within different contexts. This time around, Danks was a cut above the Cal League, while failing to turn the corner in AA. This consistency should tell us one or two things about Danks: poor endurance yields late season collapses, and/or he has trouble adjusting his game after promotions. Either way, his combined pre-promotion ERA is now 2.35, which has worsened to 5.40 after moving up.

    Similar to Danks in second half breakdowns, Thomas Diamond has problems towards the end of the 2005 season. This had not been true in his first season, following Diamond's first-round selection in the 2004 draft. After signing quickly out of the University of New Orleans, Diamond torched the Northwest and Midwest Leagues. In 46 innings, Diamond made quite a few scouting directors kick themselves with his 2.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 13.3 K/9.

    This season was more of a test for Diamond, who pitched in two tough environments in his first full year as a pro. His stuff was certainly enough for the Cal League, as his classic pitcher's body created a mid-nineties fastball and sharp, late-breaking curve. As a result, Diamond struck out 101 in 81.1 innings, and also showed his college-learned pitchability with a 1.99 ERA.

    However, as often happens, things began to fall apart once Diamond reached the Double-A level. Diamond's 4.96 BB/9 was his highest since his sophomore year of college, and his 1.04 HR/9 was a career-high. Combine those two factors, and it isn't surprising that his ERA of 5.35 was his highest since pitching as a teenager. Rangers fans should hang their hats on the fact that despite this lack of success, Diamond's H/9 and K/9 peripherals were fine, coming in at 8.61 and 8.87, respectively.

    One player with traditionally good peripherals, and lacking ERAs has been Edison Volquez. The first to enter the system, signing out of the Dominican in 2001, Volquez put his name on the map with a good 2005 season. The newest Ranger to draw comparisons to Pedro Martinez, Volquez' stuff is often talked about before his numbers are cited. We hear about a heavy fastball, a Pedro-esque change, and a developing slider. We also see a player that in 279.2 career minor league innings has an ERA of just 3.99.

    Volquez' presence in America began in 2003, with a short stint in the Arizona Summer League. In 27 innings, the best that can be said about Edison was his 24 hits allowed, 28 strikeouts, and one home run. Of course, he walked 11, threw 4 wild pitches, and had an ERA of 4.00 as well. In 2004, Volquez had a decent season in low-A, putting up a 4.21 ERA in 87.2 innings, only striking out 74 batters. His year finished well in high-A, when he put up a 2.95 ERA, and improved his K/9 to 7.71.

    This season, as mentioned, things began to improve for Volquez. Despite a 4.18 ERA in high-A, Volquez turned a lot of heads with 77 strikeouts in 66.2 innings. I saw him pitch in the Futures Game, where I came away impressed with a heavy 94-96 mph fastball, but disappointed with no emergence of a great secondary pitch. His struggled mounted after leaving Bakersfield, as all of his peripherals (except HR/9) worsened after reaching AA, if not his ERA (4.14). Volquez was the only one of the three who finished with the Rangers, pitching disastrously, allowing 20 earned runs in just 12.2 innings of work.

    Trying to rank the trio is no easy task, as all look to be future mainstays in a Major League rotation. But I know the question will pop up, so I'll give it my go. First, looking elsewhere, we see that Calleaguers.com's Seam Geaney ranked them in the order of Volquez - Danks - Diamond, ranking Edison as fourth in the entire Cal League. Certainly, he saw more than I did at the Futures Game, citing Volquez' "mid to high 90s fastball while showcasing a plus plus change up and a developing breaking ball." In one Baseball America Daily Dish, they talked to two unimpressed scouts, who split their top choices between Danks and Volquez. Finally, at midseason, guru Jamey Newberg assured me that Volquez was for real, ranking him #1b.

    Despite these reports, I still value performance first, with potential coming a close second. That methodology creates a pretty clear order of Danks first, and Diamond narrowly coming ahead of Volquez. If stuff was everything, even Blalock and DVD wouldn't have yielded Josh Beckett.

    In the end, it is a good sign that Daniels was slow to dip into the farm system that could shape the Rangers future. It would have been one thing to trade Eric Hurley, the fourth pitcher in the system that pitched well in the Midwest League, but another to swap one of their high potential, AA hurlers. Good first non-move for Daniels, while Red Sox fans are witnessing Theo Epstein's pride and joy (a rebuilt farm system) get torn apart quickly.

    WTNYNovember 21, 2005
    Fried Fish
    By Bryan Smith

    They know the refrain all too well. Given just how soon the team had won the World Series since starting, fans were able to forgive their organization after stripping apart the 1997 team. Even the 2003 club faced significant changes after coming through October on top.

    But never before have the Marlins been as willing to pull out as many of the stops as we've been hearing. The team is very close to trading Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett to the Rangers. Carlos Delgado and Juan Pierre have also been on the block, possibly going to the Mets and Cubs, respectively. There have been other names mentioned, as well, such as Luis Castillo, Guillermo Mota and even Paul Lo Duca.

    Or, according to reports, pretty much anyone on the club except Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera and Jeremy Hermida. Oh, and by the way, they have 12 free agents preparing to leave town as well. It's safe to say that Jack McKeon picked a good time to skip town. At this point, I'm not convinced that Joe Girardi will be able to field a team of 25 men.

    First, let's look at the rotation that has had the potential to be so good since drafting Josh Beckett out of high school. But suddenly, Carl Pavano is gone, A.J. Burnett is leaving and Beckett looks to be on his way out now. A new regime is in place, led by Dontrelle Willis. From a marketing standpoint, there might be no one better in the Majors to become the focus of the team.

    Beyond Willis, we can't be sure of who will be pitching every fifth day, as Burnett, Valdez and Brian Moehler are all free agents. Jason Vargas finished the season on a high, and will be given a job a year after going from the South Atlantic League to the Majors in Pujols-esque speed. His young southpaw counterpart, Scott Olsen, could also be given a job, as he'll be more healthy and well-rested.

    Rumors have the Marlins soon-to-be acquiring John Danks, Texas' talented young lefty hurler. If so, Florida will soon have a rotation of left-handed heat, as Danks is probably a half season away (at least) from contributing at the Major League level. He's a great prospect, but one that has proven to be able to handle only one season per year. The same can be said about Josh Johnson, who finished the year in Florida, but whose control proved to be not ready for the Major League level.

    So, the team has three starters that are ready for the Majors. As of now, things look better in the field, where the Marlins are yet to really start losing players. Paul Lo Duca is still signed to catch, and even if he's traded, Josh Willingham is waiting in the wings. Expect one of those two, but not both, to be gone in February. Carlos Delgado remains signed as the first baseman, though with a salary that is set to triple from where it was in 2005. Luis Castillo will make more, as well, but his popularity in Miami makes me think he'll stay.

    The shortstop position is anyone's guess, as Alex Gonzalez is just not worth re-signing. Instead, it appears the club is dedicated to giving Robert Andino the shortstop job, despite his career of zero Major League at-bats. This is to soon for the club to throw Andino in to the fire, so they really should consider a cheap, Pokey Reese/Royce Clayton-type option here.
    At third, there stands to be Hank Blalock taking over for the expensive Mike Lowell. This represents an upgrade, but there have also been rumors that Florida will be just a stop for Blalock. Instead, the third baseman -- making a little over $4 million for each of the next three seasons -- could be moved following his arrival. The team would like to move Cabrera back to the hot corner, though I really don't see Blalock leaving with a salary as low as his. Instead, expect Lowell in Texas, Blalock in Floria, and Cabrera in left.

    It's anyone's guess where Juan Pierre will be next season. The club has been shopping him around like crazy, as the idea of paying Pierre and Castillo so much money to man the top of the lineup has just lost its luster. As of now, I think the best option for the fish is to in fact send him to Chicago, acquiring Corey Patterson and a young starter in the Sergio Mitre mold. Patterson could then be forced to contend with Chris Aguila for the centerfield job, while Hermida coasts through the season in right.

    As of now, a trade of Delgado would make Jeff Conine the starter at first base. The drop off here is pretty significant, however, and Conine provides much more value as a bat coming off the bench. There, he could join the versatile Aguila, Joe Dillon, and Matt Treanor. Simply put, holding onto Delgado is extremely important.

    What scares me most about the 2006 team is the bullpen that Girardi will be forced to call to. At this point, only one veteran is signed, that being Ron Villone. Guillermo Mota is arbitration-eligible, which in this organization means he will be shopped, and if no one is interested in a trade, he'll be non-tendered. Beyond that, Nate Bump is the only other player I would have any confidence in. Pardon me, but the names Randy Messenger, Chris Resop, Logan Kensing or Ben Howard don't sound particularly inviting.

    But, since they don't want to spend money, this is the bullpen they will be given. At least one free agent signing will be mandatory, as someone with a name is going to have to take over for the departing Todd Jones. After that, the club should be creative, looking into the system, the minor league free agent market and the Rule 5 Draft for arms. If the Royal bullpen can show so much promise, why not the Florida one? For example, if Josh Johnson starts the 2005 season slow, convert his big frame to the bullpen, and you might just have your next closer.

    So, who should Larry Beinfest be looking to trade, and who should he be lobbying to keep? As I've said, I think the ones to go should be Lo Duca, Lowell, Pierre, Beckett and Mota. This will shave quite a bit off the payroll, while maintaining an off chance that this team could contend in the 2006 season.

    Whether they can get his new Miami stadium or not, the Marlins owe their fan base something. And that is to stop leaving the same song on repeat.

    WTNYNovember 16, 2005
    One More Year
    By Bryan Smith

    If it wasn't for Kevin Towers, we might have forgotten that the offseason has begun. First, the Arizona Diamondbacks asked permission to talk to Towers, and things did not work out there. He then was among the first names being discussed for the Red Sox GM opening. Now, after re-committing with the Padres, Towers has made the first two trades of the winter, with rumors that a third is right around the corner.

    The minute that free agent lists were released, it was evident that the Padres would be active during the hot stove season. Two of the clubs most powerful hitters -- Brian Giles and Ramon Hernandez -- are among the top free agents in the game, and joined by Mark Sweeney and Joe Randa on offense. Pedro Astacio is the lone starter who could go elsewhere, but the pitching staff is also in danger of losing three of their five best relievers: Trevor Hoffman, Chris Hammond and Rudy Seanez.

    Needless to stay, Kevin Towers has been forced into rebuilding a good portion of the NL West champions. He has already started to rebuild, first trading steady starter Brian Lawrence to the Washington Nationals for Vinny Castilla. Today it was announced that, pending a physical, the Padres were trading young Xavier Nady for Gold Glove center fielder Mike Cameron. Finally, rumors around the Majors indicate that David Wells could soon return to southern California, in exchange for New England icon Dave Roberts and the underachieving Sean Burroughs.

    What jumps off the page is that Towers seems willing to take on extra salary in 2006 to have one last hurrah. After the 2006 season, the team stands to lose Mark Loretta, Castilla, Chan Ho Park, Woody Williams, possibly David Wells, and holds expensive options for Ryan Klesko and Cameron. Towers has obviously decided that acquiring aging veterans to make a run at the NL West title next year will also allow him to make a splash in the 2007 free agent class, when he will have nearly $30 million to spend.

    This is a plan that I support when considering how weak this winter's crop is. Towers must find a way to get one final year out of many of these veterans, while also slowly deciding upon the future of many of his young players. It seems as though Josh Barfield, Paul McAnulty and George Kottaras all have one season to prove their worth to the front office contingent of Towers, Grady Fuson and Sandy Alderson. Ben Johnson, Miguel Olivo and Tim Stauffer will all be significant roles, and their performance will dictate their future in the organization. However, the 2006 season will be about how much performance Bruce Bochy can get from Klesko, Loretta, Castilla, Williams, Wells and other aging veterans.

    First and foremost, Towers must find a way to get the David Wells deal done. If any of the older players mentioned above have a good chance at success in PETCO Park in 2006, it's the flyball-friendly Wells. And while Dave Roberts presence in left field could form an outfield of three center fielders (Roberts, Cameron, Johnson), his value is undoubtedly overrated in the minds of Bostonians. While I would prefer Sean Burroughs is not included, and given the same chance in AAA as Barfield or McAnulty, his exit from the organization wouldn't be awful. In my mind, he's probably nothing more than Mike Cuddyer will ever be.

    A bad idea, however, is trading Akinori Otsuka. With three good relievers poised to leave the organization, Otsuka is in the position to become a set-up man for future closer Scott Linebrink. While the team would be smart to add another reliever, Otsuka will surely be one of Bochy's most dependable arms. That's because other than Linebrink, the San Diego bullpen currently has plans to give innings to Craig Breslow, Clay Hensley, and the loser of the Chan Ho Park v. Tim Stauffer rotation spot. Those names don't invoke a lot of confidence.

    With the acquisition of Wells, however, Park or Stauffer will be the fifth arm in the rotation. Jake Peavy obviously sits on top, and will be followed by Wells, Adam Eaton and Woody Williams. As a group, this foursome averaged 168.7 innings in 2005 with an ERA of 4.04. And given the breakout potential that Eaton has, and Wells forthcoming move to a pitcher's park, that number should all but decrease in 2006.

    However, the pressing need for next season is finding a way to score more runs. The San Diego offense ranked just 13th in the National League, and as mentioned, is now losing Giles and Hernandez. However, one should expect improvements up the middle, as Loretta and Greene both underachieved in 2005, and Cameron represents an offensive improvement in center. Hopefully, these improvements will offset the decrease in production from right field. Giles was one of the National League's ten most productive players in 2005, and it's hard to expect rookie Ben Johnson to be among the top 50 next year.

    So, the team needs to improve at catcher, first, third and left. One of those spots will be filled by Ryan Klesko, who should at least match his production from this season. Even considering age regression, Vinny Castilla should improve upon the .254/.318/.366 line that Padres' third basemen hit in 2005. So, how do you fill the catching and 1B/LF situation without going away from Towers' plan?

    Mike Piazza. Yes, the same Piazza that many think belongs nowhere near the playing field ever again. In 2005, Piazza played 113 games. This is about how many the organization that signs him in this winter should expect him to play in 2006. This is fine with the Padres, who would like to give time to see what they have in Miguel Olivo. Neither the prospect of playing Olivo 130 games behind the plate, or giving the likes of Ben Molina or Kenji Jojima long contracts are inviting. So, why not give an expensive, one-year deal to Mike Piazza, with an option for 2007?

    To give Piazza time off from catching duties, the club should start Miguel Olivo against southpaws. Olivo has always hit left-handers very well, and would produce from such a role next year. However, they also don't want to lose Piazza's bat against southpaws, so they simply will play Piazza at first, and move Klesko to left. Against right-handers? Drop Olivo from the lineup (occassionally giving him a start to rest Piazza), and re-sign Mark Sweeney, who performed admirably in 2005.

    My suggested 2006 lineup:

    Position	Vs. RHP	Vs. LHP
    C	Piazza	Olivo
    1B	Klesko	Piazza
    2B	Loretta	Loretta
    SS	Greene	Greene
    3B	Castilla	Castilla
    LF	Sweeney	Klesko
    CF	Cameron	Cameron
    RF	Johnson	Johnson

    For those interested, I suspect these nine players would cost the Padres about $35 million next season. Six of the players (including Piazza and Sweeney) could be in the position to be free agents again in one year. With a rotation that will add about $30 million in costs, the Padres wouldn't have a ton to spend on the bullpen, though it's almost complete, anyway.

    One season. That's all Kevin Towers is asking of many of his veterans, before allowing himself some fun in a year. With the NL West in shambles, with no evidence that it will improve soon, this is a fantastic plan. If you ask me, Mike Piazza would only add to it.

    WTNYNovember 15, 2005
    Street's Successors
    By Bryan Smith

    There was no Huston Street this season. No pitcher that dazzled on both the stat sheets and scouting reports. The Arizona Fall League is rarely a haven for pitchers, who have come to avoid the hitter-friendly league. Last year Street created noise all over the league, as both his numbers and fastball impressed everyone that saw him. This year, we have seen none of that.

    However, ten pitching performances from the AFL stand out, even if nearly all of them had flaws. I have grouped them into four categories, based on their statistics, and in many instances, their future roles on a pitching staff.

    Group One: Glen Perkins and Jamie Shields

    Undoubtedly the two Cy Youngs of the AFL season. The two were first and second respectively in innings pitched, and both were in the top five in both ERA and strikeouts. Furthermore, control is a problem for neither, as the two combined for a 68/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

    Perkins is the more well-known of the two, a first round pick by the Twins in the 2004 draft. He had a history of success before the AFL, pitching great at the University of Minnesota, as well as in both low and high-A. However, after a good first half performance in the Florida State League, Perkins struggled mightily in AA. Every ratio, including his historically great control went out the window, and his ERA neared 5.00.

    The AFL, in this instance, should be a reminder that Glen Perkins is a legit pitching prospect, and will likely be a preview of what we might see from him next year in AA.

    On the other hand, we have Jamie Shields. Older than Perkins by sixteen months, Shields was chosen in the sixteenth round of the 2000 draft out of high school. He lost his 2002 season to injury, struggling in the California League during the 2003 and 2004 seasons. However, when moving to a more pitcher-friendly environment this season, Shields thrived, lowering his ERA to 2.80 in 109.1 innings.

    Shields great pitching in the AFL should come as evidence that his 2005 campaign was not a fluke. Instead, he deserves a spot on the Devil Rays 40-man roster, and if not, a spot in some organization's camp as a Rule 5 selection. Sure, his stuff might never impress a scout, but his control and newfound durability could yield a moderately successful Major League career.

    Group Two: Adam Loewen, Humberto Sanchez and Clint Nageotte

    While both Perkins and Shields belong in the back end of a rotation, our next three pitchers are tweeners. All have succeeded in the past -- and at the AFL -- as starters, but their performance has indicated a move to the bullpen could provide more consistency.

    The most obvious name on this list is Adam Loewen, a former top five selection that has not been able to turn the corner as a starter. After a rough 2004, Loewen's 2005 looked fantastic with a 9.25 K/9 and 2.58 G/F ratio. His AFL obviously followed suit, as he continued to keep the ball on the ground and struggle with control. It seems that one way to harness Loewen's stuff, while maintaining his good strikeout, hit and groundball ratios would be to convert him to relief. However, expect the Orioles to give him at least one more season to prove his worth.

    It seems that a bullpen that already has Franklyn German and Fernando Rodney just is begging to add Humberto Sanchez. Like the other two, Sanchez has a huge frame and fantastic, hard stuff. He has a career 8.62 K/9 ratio, and if you exclude the 2002 and 2003 seasons, he has struck out 195 men in his last 182.2 innings. However, he also walked 84 during that time, the cause for an ERA that has been above 5.00 during the time. His latest struggles were in Erie, one of the minor's best parks for hitters, though he has yet to dominate regardless of the environment. Given his stuff and ability to keep the ball in the stadium, Sanchez should move to relief as early as next season, where he could truly succeed.

    Finally, we have a name that has already spent time at the heart of this debate: Clint Nageotte. Formerly a top Mariners pitching prospect, the team converted him, and his vicious slider, to relief this season. However, in an effort to extract more starting pitching from their farm system, they tried him in starting again this fall. The results: complete success. His control was fantastic, his stuff kept the ball in the park, and he continued to miss bats. Now, Nageotte finds himself right where he started, back in the relief vs. starting debate. Look for the former to win out.

    In my opinion, of this group, only Loewen holds the potential to stay in the starting role. However, that hardly means that all three will not be successful, in whichever role suits them best.

    Jered Weaver, Bill Murphy and Scott Mathieson

    Unlike the first two groups, the pitchers in this group do not all profile to have similar future roles. However, all have relatively similar skillsets, and as a result, had similar performances in the AFL. All three had high ERAs in Arizona, likely the result of high HR/9 ratios. However, along with high hit rates, all three struck batters out at impressive rates, while not giving up very many free passes.

    The most famous example of this type of player was Jered Weaver, who was inconsistent in his seven-start AFL stint. He gave up 30 hits -- four of which were home runs -- in 24.2 innings, leading to a 5.47 ERA. However, impressively he struck out 35 batters, while walking only five. This is a skill that Weaver has had since college, though his problem of being too hittable is a new one. I still believe Weaver has a future in the rotation, but he must find an ability to give up less fly balls, and as a result, less home runs.

    One player with eerily similar statistics was Bill Murphy, southpaw in the Arizona system. Murphy gave up four home runs and 36 hits, while striking out 36 and giving up four walks in his 27 innings on the mound. I've never been a fan of Murphy, who I watched pitch in the 2004 Futures Game. Murphy has been too hittable for awhile now, though his strikeout numbers do indicate a future could be had in a relief role. It wouldn't hurt the Diamondbacks to send Murphy back to the PCL in 2006, but this time in much shorter stints.

    Staying with the theme of ex-Futures Game pitchers, we have Scott Mathieson, who snuck into the 2005 All-Star contest. His stuff was impressive in his short stint in Detroit, as well as his 26 innings in Arizona. Mathieson struck out 36 batters during that time, but unlike the names that preceded him, did not show great control (11 walks). He also struggled with opponents making too much contact, as he surrendered 34 hits (and four home runs). However, Mathieson's strikeout numbers and impressive fastball indicate he could follow Ryan Madson in moving to the Philly bullpen.

    Shane Komine and Taylor Buchholz

    Finally, we finish with two pitchers that might not have the potential of the previous eight, but without question, have the numbers. First, there is Shane Komine, the small A's right-hander that has become known as "Hawaiian Punch-Out." This comes from Komine's noted strikeout history, which included four straight seasons with a K/9 over 9.00 at Nebraska. The ninth-round pick sat out of most of 2005 with injury, but also struck out 44 in 40 innings before the AFL. While his strikeout numbers might have been lacking in the AFL, Komine had great success in his five appearances.

    Komine has a career 3.85 ERA in the minors, and pitched well in the Texas League in 2005. If a 5-8 pitcher is going to succeed anywhere, it might be the Oakland A's, who are thought to love the type of players that scouts hate. And make no mistake about it, Komine is just that. However, his numbers continue to be great, and if he can keep the ball in the park, there is no reason Shane can't pitch some with the Oakland A's.

    One organization that has never valued height is the Houston Astros, as Roy Oswalt would be happy to tell you. And while Taylor Buchholz might actually fit the frame that scouts love, his fastball isn't great. However, a good curveball has led to success in the minors up until the Pacific Coast League, in which he has struggled each of the last two seasons. Buchholz has been unable to turn the corner in the K/9 department, striking out just 119 in 174.2 AAA innings. I don't see Buchholz succeeding in the Majors unless some of the velocity he once showed in the Philly system magically returns.

    While these ten might not have been the best ten pitching prospects in the AFL, they are the ten stat lines that stood out the most. But in the end, there was no Huston Street. And there will be no Rookie of the Year coming from the 2005 AFL mound, that much I can guarantee you.

    WTNYNovember 02, 2005
    Lost Legacy
    By Bryan Smith

    In three short seasons on the job, Theo Epstein became a legend in New England, but for all the wrong reasons.

    When given credit for building a world Champion, people like at some of Theo's notable additions: David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke. However, his ability to bring in these players is not what made Epstein one of the game's better General Managers.

    Yes, Epstein signed Bill Mueller the season before he won a batting title. Yes, he inked Ortiz before he was Big Papi, hovering annually around a .600 slugging percentage. He traded for Curt Schilling (even spent Thanksgiving with him, people are quick to point out) before the bloody sock and a second place finish in the Cy Young voting. Yes, he won a bidding war for a closer before Foulke registered the last of Boston's championship outs.

    These acquisitions will be seen as Theo's best, the foundations for the legacy he will leave behind. This is unfortunate, because it sells the former youngest GM short.

    Most qualified executives would have considered Mueller as a cheap corner option. And let's not pretend Theo saw the .200 point OPS upswing when he made the signing. Most qualified execs would have seen David Ortiz as an answer to their left-handed sock need. Most wanted Curt Schilling, Theo just put together what Joe Garagiola Jr. thought was the best package. Most wanted Foulke, the Red Sox just offered the most.

    Let's not hoist Theo on our shoulders for simply beating others to the punch, or having more to offer. Creativity is what turns an average GM into a great one, as fans in Atlanta or Oakland could tell you. Add Boston to the list, as in his short tenure, Epstein was very creative, in addition to being well-rounded.

    In late January, 2003, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Jeff Suppan to a one-year deal, with an option for a second. In need of a 40-man roster spot, they were forced into taking someone off. They opted to designate a former third-round pick for assignment, as they had given the 25-year-old eight years since being drafted. This player, Bronson Arroyo, had shown much promise in the minors, but could not turn the corner at the Major League level.

    Arroyo waited ten days, and found himself on the waiver wire. To reach the Red Sox, he was passed on quite a bit, before Boston decided to replace Juan Pena with Arroyo. Bronson had a good 2003 season in Pawtucket, and left the Red Sox with a good impression towards the end of the season. Fittingly enough, he ended the season the same roster as Jeff Suppan, who Theo went on to acquire. A year later, he found himself in the Boston rotation, and in the end, with a World Series ring.

    After the 2004 championship, the face of the Red Sox was David Ortiz, the sock was Curt Schilling. Before Theo had come to town, the Red Sox image was personified by Nomar Garciaparra. However, not only did Epstein see in Nomar a declining skill set with numerous health concerns, but he had the guts to do something about it.

    On the 2004 trade deadline, the Red Sox were part of a four-team trade that shockingly included Garciaparra's name. Out went one of the AL's more powerful shortstops, and in came defense: Orlando Cabrera at short, Doug Mientkiewicz at first. The team also had enough money to acquire Dave Roberts, who went on to have a profound effect on the Red Sox during the postseason.

    There are many examples of this, in which Epstein saw under or overvalued commodities. Players like Mark Bellhorn, Tony Graffanino, or Ryan Rupe. Theo also went where the Red Sox had previously never gone before -- the Rule 5 draft, even if there were never Johan-like success stories. There were also signings that some GMs would not have made, such as Wade Miller despite injury, and Roberto Petagine despite a long stint in Japan.

    These are just a few of the reasons that make Epstein a good GM. Another, of course, is what he did for the Boston farm system. Generally considered one of the worst during the Dan Duquette era, Epstein will now leave the Red Sox with one of the ten best systems in baseball.

    It is unclear how much success Epstein deserves for those that came ahead of him. Hanley Ramirez, despite being a holdover from Duquette, has required extremely tender care and delicate promoting for the last three seasons. Surely, Epstein and staff deserve some credit for Hanley's maturation and steady improvement. They should also be recognized when considering the breakouts we have seen from Jon Lester, Brandon Moss and Anibal Sanchez. Finally, moving Manny Delcarmen to a different role may have salvaged his status as a prospect.

    However, these are just five members of the suddenly-deep farm system. Here's a look at the three drafts in which Epstein anchored:

    2003 Draft: Theo's first pick was spent on, unsurprisingly, a college hitter, specifically Baylor's David Murphy. He has been just OK since being drafted, but had a solid year, and may end up as a good fourth outfielder given his left-handed bat. The team kept in the safe, college ranks in the second round by selecting Long Beach State ace Abe Alvarez. The southpaw has reached the Major League level, and may have a career starting at the back end of rotations. Finally, in the fourth round, the team took Mississippi State closer Jon Papelbon, and then converted him back to the starting ranks. After great seasons in 2004 and 2005, the team put Papelbon back in relief to help the Major League club in the second half, in which he thrived. Papelbon has a chance at becoming the Boston closer as early as 2006 if things bounce the right way.

    2004 Draft: This draft lacked a first round pick, so the expectations go down immediately. However, the team jumped right into the thick of things in the second round, taking All-American Dustin Pedroia. Deemed the "Moneyball" selection of the draft, the undersized Pedroia has performed very well since being drafted. He should be the Boston second baseman by 2007, and will be a fan favorite shortly thereafter. In the sixth round the team paid six figures for Cla Meredith out of Virginia Commonwealth University. Meredith had a great 2005 season, and will join Papelbon in the Boston bullpen soon. Finally, the team set a record when they gave their 12th round choice, Mike Rozier, over $1.5 million to not attend college. Rozier is still raw, so the verdict is still out on this move.

    2005 Draft: This time around, the Red Sox had quite a few choices, with six selections among the top 57 overall picks. The team balanced college and high school like they hadn't before. The first pick was Johnny Damon-like Jacoby Ellsbury, and went back to the college closing ranks with Craig Hansen. Epstein leaves the Red Sox with a upcoming decision regarding Hansen, whether to keep him in the bullpen (near Major League ready) or have him begin starting again (destined for A-ball). Three of the next four picks were "risky" choices by sabermetric standards -- Junior College selection Clay Buchholz, high school flamethrower Mike Bowden, and high school catcher Jon Egan. Sandwiched by those selections was Jed Lowrie, another All-American in the mold of Dustin Pedroia.

    In conclusion, Epstein has done very good things with each of his drafts. It looks as if the selections of Papelbon, Pedroia and Hansen could make each of those drafts successful, with the other players mentioned just providing icing on the cake.

    How much of this rebuilding is Theo responsible for? How much will the farm system suffer as a result of his exit? These are questions that we simply can't know the answer for, but we have to give Epstein the benefit of the doubt that this is more than coincidence.

    Theo Epstein leaves the Red Sox a New England hero, quite possibly more respected at 30 than Barry Bonds was. His placement within the inner circle of GMs is well deserved, but not because of the players that dominate the Win Shares column. Bronson Arroyo speaks far more about Epstein's genius than Curt Schilling ever will.

    WTNYOctober 26, 2005
    From World to Farm
    By Bryan Smith

    In case you forgot, neither the Red Sox or Yankees are in the World Series. In fact, neither team in the Fall Classic even possesses a large payroll. Because of this, much of the foundation for Houston and Chicago is the farm system. The White Sox great rotation is made of two Sox farmhands (Buerhle and Garland) as well as another that is a product of Sox prospects (Freddy Garcia). For Houston, look no further than Lance Berkman, Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane for proof that they value the minors.

    Today, I want to look at the farm systems of the Astros and the White Sox. Both, coincidentally, have been ranked tops in the Majors by Baseball America within the last ten years. However, the two came into rough times in about 2002-2003, in which the top prospects were Carlos Hernandez, John Buck and Joe Borchard. This season was a good one for both farm systems, one in which multiple top prospects identified themselves on both clubs.

    First, I'd like to rehash the influence that rookies had on the club this season. During the postseason, we have seen strong contributions from rookies. For the White Sox, Bobby Jenks has become a household name, pitching in each game of the World Series, and dramatically closing out the first. On the other side, Phil Garner has received much help this October from Willy Taveras, Chris Burke, Chad Qualls and Wandy Rodriguez. Brandon McCarthy has watched from the Chicago dugout as well, while the Astros also have sparingly used Eric Bruntlett and Ezequiel Astacio. While both teams have received quite a bit from rookies, sheer quantity has to give the Astros the edge here.

    Interestingly enough, two of the top prospects from each of these teams are of a similar mold. For purposes of this farm system comparison, let's first compare/contrast these two, then look at the rest of the top tier for each, and finish with comparing depth.

    The Chicago White Sox had a lot of picks in the 2004 draft. With three selections before the second round, the club started by taking two collegiate products -- raw third baseman Josh Fields and less-raw Clemson hurler Tyler Lumsden. The third selection was of a different mold, a short high school southpaw from Florida named Giovany Gonzalez. For Houston, their 2004 high school southpaw story was a bit different, as they waited until the ninth round to select Texan Troy Patton.

    What is most amazing about these two players is just how similar they are. Born only sixteen days apart, both are smaller left-handers with similar (small) builds. Oh, and if you hadn't guessed it, their stuff is similar too. Here is a condensed version of the report on Patton that I filed after the Futures Game:

    ...the southpaw started the inning with a 93 mph fastball, the only velocity the pitch hit in four throws. He also showed an impressive change in the dirt, and forced a ground out from Bergolla on a mid 70s, loopy curve.

    Later, I also went on to further detail Patton's good curve. Our second report comes from Baseball America, specifically their September 2 Daily Dish, in which Gio Gonzalez' playoff performance is described. To quote, "[Gonzalez] showed off an explosive 93 mph fastball, hammer curve and a late-diving changeup." Other than a few miles per hour on the curveball, sound familiar?

    Statistically, the two are also very alike. Both started the season in the South Atlantic League, and as you can see, the league posed a problem for neither:

    Name	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	HR
    GG	1.87	57.2	36	84	22	3
    TP	1.94	78.2	59	94	20	3

    Gonzalez would have likely matched Patton in innings pitched, had he not missed a few starts due to injury. While nearly the same in ERA and home runs, Gonzalez has better "stuff" indicators (H/9, K/9), while Patton betters Gio in the "polish" peripherals (BB/9, K/BB). Next, let's look at what happened when the two moved up a level, this time to the Carolina League:

    Name	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	HR
    GG	3.56	73.1	61	79	25	5
    TP	2.63	41	34	38	8	2

    This time, it's Gonzalez with the innings pitched advantage. Again, the numbers tell a story of Gonzalez having the stuff advantage, while Patton seems to be less raw. We also might be seeing Gonzalez' inning advantage hurt him, as we have since heard of shoulder soreness for the Floridian. If the shoulder is a problem, than Patton has a clear advantage. Without it, this argument is literally six in one, half dozen in the other.

    Next, we move from the mound to behind it, to less similar players that share only the centerfield position and a Texas background. In one hand, you have Chris Young, a 2001 16th round choice out of high school. Young struggled his first year out of the gate, in 2003 playing in the Arizona League (.217/.308/.380) and then improved the next season in the Appy League (.290/.357/.479). Hunter Pence, born five months before Young in 1983, was drafted in 2004 from Texas-Arlington. Pence then moved from dominating the NCAA level to making a big short-season debut (.296/.369/.518).

    One other similarity between these two players was a similar spot to their full-season debut (Young in 2004, Pence in 2005): the South Atlantic League. The results, on the other hand, were a bit different:

    Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	BB	SO
    HP	0.338	0.413	0.652	302	38	53
    CY	0.262	0.365	0.505	465	66	145

    Basically, Pence's season was his breakout one as a prospect. Young, however, just looked like a breakout might be on the way. The two both showed solid power and discipline, though Pence was better in the latter, while Young had the walk advantage. The knock on Young, of course, was a strikeout problem that Pence couldn't imagine. However, I believed in Young enough to put him on my breakout list before the season began.

    This, of course, proved correct as Young has vaulted himself up the prospect ladder with a great 2005 season. His season in AA (.277/.375/.545) was complemented by great defense and 32 stolen bases. Pence's promotion didn't go so well, as he did not skip high-A like Young, but still solid (.305/.382/.490). However, Pence does not have the defense and speed that Young does, likely because he stands 6-4.

    Considering how advanced Pence is, and how raw Young's contact skills are, these players are on similar ETAs. However, there is no question Chris Young is the better prospect, looking better than Pence from the standpoints of age, defense, speed, discipline, and quite possibly power. So, through these two prospects, the White Sox have an advantage.

    And like the World Series, the advantage will only widen the further we look. While Patton and Pence are likely the Astros two best prospects, we have yet to mention a top 30 prospect in the White Sox organization -- Brian Anderson. The former first-round pick has done nothing but impress across the board since being drafted, and surely impressed White Sox brass by hitting two home runs in September off Felix Hernandez. Anderson's presence is the predominant reason I have previously called for the White Sox to trade Scott Podsednik.

    The depth advantage is another to surely go to the White Sox, as the Astros really only have three other prospects -- all pitchers -- worth mentioning. While I don't think the White Sox can match that, they might be able to when considering the Astros have nothing to match Brian Anderson. For the Astros, the three pitchers are Fernando Nieve, Jason Hirsh and Jimmy Barthmaier. Nieve we have known about for awhile, but he really took a step forward this year, pitching great in the Texas League before not doing great in the PCL. Hirsh was the Texas League pitcher of the year, though at 24 years of age. Barthmaier was another to really step up, with a 2.27 ERA in 134.2 Sally League innings at 21.

    To compare, the White Sox have two other solid pitching prospects in their system. Going against Barthmaier is fellow SAL pitcher Ray Liotta, another 2004 draftee, and one that beat Barthmaier's ERA by one-hundredth of a point. Liotta is definitely more polished than Barthmaier, and this argument looks similar to that of Gonzalez-Patton. Another good pitching prospect was Lance Broadway, the Sox' 2005 first-round pick, in his age 21 season, he hung in there in the Carolina League. He'll head back there in 2006, and will still hit AA younger than Hirsh did. Broadway is in a similar mold to Brandon McCarthy, pitchers that throw off great curveballs and not fantastic fastballs.

    As I have previously said, after this bunch, the edge goes to the White Sox. They had a better showing in the short-season leagues than Houston, despite the latter looking like they had the better draft. The Sox also have players like Francisco Hernandez, Robert Valido, Ryan Sweeney, Kris Honel and others playing in full-season baseball.

    Looking forward, the White Sox currently have a better farm system than the Astros. However, with Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio on the roster, and the likes of Patton, Nieve, Barthmaier and Hirsh in the minors, the Astros will get some rotation help in the near future. As for the White Sox, look for the club to get help in the outfield, the rotation and the trade block soon.

    WTNYOctober 24, 2005
    Unity Needed
    By Bryan Smith

    In a town known for losing, the White Sox have left Chicagoans pinching themselves. They have left Chicago with an icon. They have left Chicago two games away from breaking one of sport's most embarrassing streaks.

    The buzz in Chicago is like nothing I have ever seen. It is amazing how quick it has become a baseball town. Even more amazing how quick it has become a White Sox town. And no, I'm not bitter. This is the White Sox moment, and it's a crime for any Cub fan to root against them.

    Some will call me a traitor. Others will say I didn't belong. Either way, I was in U.S. Cellular Field for Game One, rooting loud and proud for the Pale Hose. And I found myself in the loudest baseball stadium in recent Chicago memory, including that old park on the north side.

    This White Sox team is reminiscent of the 2002 Angels, in the sense that it's a team America is falling in love with, despite a lack of face. Well, other than the manager. Ozzie has taken control of this team, while becoming the "Ditka" of the 21st century. "Who would have thought Ozzie Guillen could control a pitching staff," was overheard during Game One. And how true it is, when considering both his big mouth and weak playing career. However, Guillen is a master, pushing all the right buttons in Game One, and stopping the bleeding in Game Two. Also, in a town so used to watching starters become a manager's torture victims, Ozzie rarely pushes his starters too hard.

    But as much influence Guillen has, he has received too much attention during the playoffs. The face of the team, maybe. Occasionally unrecognizable when standing next to King Midas? Yes. But he is not the driving force behind the Sox; in fact, far from it. Today I want to take a more in-depth look at the White sox that we know so little about, and show that this team is just too much fun to have half their home city rooting against them.

    Despite yesterday's antics from both Paul Konerko and Scott Podsednik, this postseason still belongs to Joe Crede from where I'm standing. This was a player that entered Chicago with the highest of expectations, after winning minor league MVP awards in both 1998 and 2000. Furthermore, he finished his 2002 season with a .285 average and 12 home runs (after hitting 24 in AAA) in 200 Major League at-bats. However, in the three years since, Crede's batting average hasn't broken .265, his OBP has been shy of .310, and just this year did his slugging eclipse .450.

    With Major League performances that have turned jeers to cheers, Crede was the last on anyone's postseason picks to click list. Only a good September (.379/.419/.759) came as foreshadowing for what October would bring. In all but three postseason games in 2005, Joe Crede has had an RBI. He's hit three playoff home runs, including a game-tying shot in Game 5 of the ALCS, and the go-ahead home run on Saturday. But more important than his bat has been his glove, one that deserves a Gold Glove this season. In fact, Crede's lack of pre-October exposure will likely be the reason that he does not win, likely falling short to Alex Rodriguez.

    Instead, the team's Gold Glove winner might be Paul Konerko, king of the (flawed) fielding percentage statistic. While Konerko doesn't quite deserve that recognition, he is without question the best hitter on the team. Many argue his MVP merits are non-existent, but considering the trophy's dependence on team player (either right or wrong), he deserves to garner a top five vote.

    Paulie also deserves a raise at the end of the season, when he will become the key White Sox free agent. With a heightened fan base, as well as extra money coming from the MLB, Ken Williams should have some extra money to play with this winter. Look for him to go after Paul hard, and probably sign him, despite the best efforts of teams like the Red Sox, Mets and Giants. Outside of Konerko, I should mention, much of this team will be back in 2006.

    While Konerko and Crede have managed to steal the postseason spotlight, the unsung hero has been the only White Sox hitter with a .300+ average in October: Juan Uribe. The shortstop has been freakishly consistent in the last ten games, collecting hits in nine of them. He has, without doubt, one of the more dangerous players on the field in Game Two. This should have been expected, of course, considering Uribe tattooed southpaws in 2005, continuing a career-long trend.

    Uribe is also an Ozzie Guillen favorite, and considering his newfound popularity, that is the right place to be. While Uribe was probably no better than the 7th or 8th best AL shortstop, his power and defense should keep him on the South Side for a long time.

    One player that should not be kept is Scott Podsednik. There, I said it, even after yesterday. Because what will be lost in the hysteria created by his homer is his outfield play in the top half of the inning. Jose Vizcaino's single was well-hit enough that Podsednik should have thrown out Chris Burke with ease. Or, as the Cheat said after the game at South Side Sox, "Timo Perez' arm has the ball to Pierzynski with enough time for AJ to sign it as a parting gift to Burke." This play also should have left Houston kicking themselves for not sending Wily Taveras home on a Lance Berkman single in Game One.

    Podsednik's arm, mixed with his lack of power, mixed with his stolen base percentage, mixed with his average OBP should leave Ken Williams selling high. The Red Sox didn't even have a chance to trade Dave Roberts after the World Series last year, but you have a feeling they would have. Podsednik is a similar case, but one in which the White Sox are giving WAY too many at-bats to. The answer to this equation is to trade Podsednik to someone who thinks he can play center, and to allow Brian Anderson 500 at-bats in 2006.

    It is that confidence in the farm system that we have seen pay dividends during this series. The player that comes to mind is Bobby Jenks, Game One's savior. When on his game, Jenks throws one of the three 'heaviest' fastballs in the game. However, his endurance is not that of a Billy Wagner yet, as his velocity slipped to 95-97 mph in Game Two. Furthermore, he does not trust his power curve, a fantastic pitch that garnered one strikeout on Saturday.

    Jenks will likely be the unquestioned closer next year, jumping right into the 40 saves category. His October has not brought Francisco Rodriguez-like attention, but no longer is he a fantasy sleeper. People have quickly come to know his big frame and big fastball, and he should become a fan favorite in short order. Moving players like Jenks and Neal Cotts to the bullpen is proving a genius move, and eventually, you have to figure all this adds up to a raise for Don Cooper.

    Cooper has remained in the background for most of the postseason, but he deserves quite a bit of credit for turning this staff into what it has become. Cooper was behind Jose Contreras learning to trust all of his pitches, making the splitter become more effective. Cooper helped turn around Jon Garland, as the big right-hander better pitches down and in now than he used to. The Sox pitching coach should be given a pat on the back for his work with Brandon McCarthy (improved change up) and Freddy Garcia. While Ozzie is a magnificent director, there is no better teacher in this organization than Cooper.

    I still believe the White Sox will win the World Series in six games. Look for losses in Games Three and Five, and for a Mark Buerhle masterpiece in the clincher. And with that, Chicago will have a World Series winner for the first time in nearly ninety years. And for once, I hope all of Chicago can appreciate it.

    WTNYOctober 20, 2005
    Meaningless Birthday
    By Bryan Smith

    Forget, for one second, the numbers that follow the "Born" part of his resume. Forget his past, the good and the bad. Instead, imagine him differently, as a 2004 draft pick from an accredited university, where he had played two-ways up until his last College World Series game. Scouts differed on whether he should hit or pitch, ultimately deciding on his powerful bat over his erratic left arm. The kid took a long time to sign, missing all of the 2004 season, and electing not to play in the AFL.

    The polish once shown in college did not transfer as quickly as the Cardinals had hoped, making their first assignment (AA - Springfield) look foolish. After beginning the season a month late due to a back sprain, he collected just one hit in his first 20 at-bats and then returned to the DL (back, again). Ironically, his largest splash was made with his arm, as he had two outfield assists in just five games.

    Rather than moving up like a few Springfield teammates, our collegiate outfielder was demoted to the Midwest League. It was there when things began to click and the move to the batter's box began to pay dividends. We began to see the power -- in addition to the big arm and outfield versatility -- that had been expected. In fact, he was probably the lost month in AA away from gaining a spot on the league's All-Star team.

    Shortly after reaching 100% again on the health meter, however, things began to hurt again. It was not the back this time, but worse, the knee. He was limited to DH duties for much of his stay, as well as rarely being allowed to play on back-to-back days. Frustrations mounted, but at the same pace as his home run total, and eventually, the Cardinals trusted his groove enough to warrant a promotion back to Springfield.

    His second stint in Double-A went beautifully, as his power continued to be a strength. No longer did the advanced environment intimidate him, and all his peripherals were sound. Despite a frustrating knee limiting his work in the outfield, his first full season at the plate was considered a success. So much so, in fact, that the Cardinals put him on their 40-man roster, promising a look in February.

    However, as we know, truth is so often stranger than fiction. And few stories are as strange as Rick Ankiel, hardly a player with the background mentioned above.

    The phenom-turned-ace-turned-Blass-turned-outfielder (who really needs a more detailed biography?) truly began his second career this year. In this, his age 25 season, Ankiel split time between the DL, the Midwest League, and Double-A. His stock plummeted early, but took an upswing following his demotion, and yet another following his promotion. Rick's season line:

    Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB	K
    A-	185	0.270	0.368	0.514	27	37
    AA	136	0.243	0.295	0.515	10	29

    We now find ourselves at the end of year one, knowing little more than we did in April. Other than, of course, that this position change just might work.

    To be fair, I should start analyzing by giving the sample size caveat, as Ankiel amassed only a little more than a half-season's worth of plate appearances. However, this is a bat that has been hyped since 2000, when Rick hit .250 in 68 Major League ABs. It was hyped when Ankiel's pitching career was in shambles, and he hit 10 home runs on off-days in the Rookie League. If Rick was the college player I described above, sample size would be something to worry about. With a 26-year-old that has been on the radar -- and hit with wooden bats -- for at least eight years, not so much.

    Therefore, we can simply turn to the numbers. This is where the project starts to impress, particularly in the power department. If Ankiel had qualified, his .244 ISO would have ranked second in the Midwest League. As would his AB/HR ratio, as Rick was averaging one home run in every 17 at-bats. Simply put, there was only one more player in the Midwest League (of those that qualified) that showcased more power than Ankiel.

    Critics will be quick to mention that the southpaw's batting average was far less than spectacular at .270. However, part of this can be blamed on luck, as his .273 BABIP is below average. Normalize the BABIP to .300, and the average jumps twenty-one points. However, even with the "low" average, Ankiel's .882 OPS would have ranked sixth in the Midwest League. Moreover, the five players ahead of him all had BABIPs over .313. Quite frankly, I would say that Rick was one of the three most dangerous hitters in the league.

    Different numbers, same story after his promotion back to Double-A. In those 116 at-bats before his season ended, Ankiel hit 10 home runs, slugging .595 in the process. Only two other Texas League hitters -- prospects Kendry Morales and Mike Napoli -- belted as many home runs from August 1 on.

    Throw out the first 20 at-bats of his season, as well as his age, and Rick Ankiel is a Major League prospect. This must be the Cardinals thinking, as they purchased Ankiel's contract hours before he would have become a free agent. As a result, the former pitcher is once again on the 40-man roster and will be invited to Spring Training with the Cardinals.

    Guessing the next step in a career with so many wrong turns is a fool's game. That said, Ankiel should gain experience with the bat and glove during the winter once his knee properly heals. The time is passing for that place to be Arizona, though Ankiel may be better suited to play out of the spotlight in one of the foreign leagues anyway. According to the Cardinals, he will also be given an opportunity to win a job in Spring Training. With So Taguchi and John Mabry aging and not particularly useful, youth could be a welcome change in St. Louis. But this move would be a great disservice to Ankiel, who deserves the opportunity to succeed beyond the confines of a bench role, rather than discarded as a prospect due to age.

    Because, in this case, few numbers are less telling than the date of his birth.

    WTNYOctober 19, 2005
    Breaking 'Em In (Part Four)
    By Bryan Smith

    In the fourth series of Breaking 'Em In, I will complete the National League teams, and then below, I have my NL ballot up. This was a fun feature to do, looking at how rookies were implemented on every team in baseball. The next time you will be seeing many of these names is in February or so, when I do my second annual Top Sophomores List.

    To recap, here is a look at the other parts of the Breaking 'Em In series:

    Part One -- First Half of AL Teams

    Part Two -- Second half and AL ballot

    Part Three -- First half of NL teams

    And finally, here is the last half of the National League teams, in order of their record...

    Washington Nationals

    It seems like it was yesterday that the Nationals were winning the NL East, and the NL Rookie of the Year was all-but-guaranteed to a certain Nat. However, things change drastically from June to October, thanks to slumps and injuries, and suddenly, a player's resume hardly even looks impressive.

    This is the case of Ryan Church. In May, Church hit .377/.406/.508, and followed that up with an even better .368/.439/.737 June. However, Church's at-bat total for the rest of the season would not match even May+June, and his production dropped considerably. For example, in the second half, Church hit just .231/.315/.352. Good rookie season for Church, but a far cry from being a top candidate for RoY.

    Other than Church, not a lot of help from rookies in Washington this year. Always been a city of incumbents anyway, huh? The only two other offensive rookies were draft picks, one from the 2004 Rule 5, and the other from the 2005 June Amateur Draft. Both Tony Blanco and Ryan Zimmerman were brought into the organization as third baseman, and neither played much of the hot corner in 2005. Trust me, you will be seeing quite a bit more on Zimmerman soon, when I get to my prospect list.

    Finally, moving to the pitching staff, we have Gary Majewski. Despite a low strikeout rate (50 in 86 IP), Majewski was one of Frank Robinson's most dependable relievers this season, appearing in 79 games. He probably isn't a great bet for continued success, but the Nats will most definitely give him a chance next year.

    Chicago Cubs

    Every Cubs fan in the world will look to a scapegoat for the 2005 season, and for most, it will either be Dusty Baker or the Injury Bug. For some, those will be connected, as the Cubs injury problems on their pitching staff continued this season. Because of numerous injuries, the Cubs turned to a few rookies to handle quite a bit of innings, specifically in relief.

    The two best that fit this profile are Will Ohman and Mike Wuertz, a few mid-twenties players that capitalized on what might have been their last real opportunity. Ohman is your typical LOOGY, but one of the better ones in the game, if you can stomach the walks. This season, pitching to left-handers in 81 at-bats, Ohman held them to a .173 average. Wuertz is a bit of the opposite, shutting down right-handers to a .197 average in 178 chances. Both of these players struck out hitters at a solid rate, and proved to be good middle relievers.

    Rounding out the solid relief core is Roberto Novoa, who appeared in 'just' 49 games this season. Like Ohman, Novoa is prone to give up the walk, but he also strikes out hitters at a good rate. Having both Novoa and Wuertz in the same 'pen might not be needed, but you get the feeling a lot of teams could use an arm like this. Similarly, Rich Hill may have dropped his first and last chance in Chicago. The minor league strikeout leader did not do well in 10 Cubs appearances, giving up 24 runs and 17 walks in 23.2 innings.

    In the field, it might surprise Cub fans that the rookie with the most playing time was Jason Dubois. But the perceived big bat did not make the most of his opportunity, hitting rather lightly, and playing some of the worst defense ever seen in Chicago. Dubois was replaced by Matt Murton on the roster, who unlike Dubois, came into Chicago with a bat hardly perceived to have any power. He left as one of the Cubs best prospects, hitting 12 extra-base hits in 140 at-bats. Finally, I should mention Ronny Cedeno, who should be at the top of every Cub fans wish list for Neifi replacements.

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    Following the worst season in franchise history, it looked as if 2005 would be a rebuilding year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Then, over the course of last winter, they kept stockpiling more and more veterans, until eventually, only the catching position and a few innings on the staff had room for rookies.

    There is no doubt that the D-Backs rookie catchers had their share of opportunities in '05, but they most definitely did not make the best of it. However, those that thought either Chris Snyder or Koyie Hill had big league potential anyway were flawed. Snyder hit a dismal .202/.297/.301, while Hill countered with a smaller .590 OPS. Also, neither balanced it out with great play behind the plate, as the two caught about 26% of basestealers behind the dish.

    At one point in the season, when it looked as if Arizona might be able to win the division, Bob Melvin made some dramatic changes. The beneficiary of this move? Conor Jackson, who was brought up from AAA, and given the first base job in Arizona. Again, like the catchers, Jackson did not make the most of this chance. In 85 at-bats this year, Jackson hit an un-Jackson like .200, with just five extra-base hits. And you can also bet that Jackson was not the beneficiary of a different Arizona move: Tony Clark's extension.

    The one Diamondback to make it through most of the season was Brad Halsey, the most surprising member of the rookie class. A throw-in with Javier Vazquez in the Randy Johnson deal, Halsey was a dependable starter at the back end of Melvin's rotation. He started off the season spectacularly, with an ERA right around 3.00 after two months of the season. However, save a good July, Halsey would fall apart after this, especially in the second half, when his ERA was 5.30. Look for Arizona to work on his stamina quite a bit this winter.

    San Francisco Giants

    Back in April, the Giants could not go a sentence without being described as aging. Bonds, Matheny, Vizquel, Snow, Alou. Wherever we looked, the Giants had someone over 35 staring back. So, it actually came to my surprise when I found a decent number of rookies that had an impact on the G-men.

    One of the spots that demanded a lot of rookie attention was the outfield, with Barry Bonds out. Early in the season the team turned very often to Jason Ellison, a good fourth outfielder because of his good defense and gap power. The club also brought Todd Linden up at some point, as AAA had not been posing much of a threat at that point. However, Linden then hit just .216 in 171 at-bats, confirming many suspicions that Linden might be a AAAA All-Star.

    The other spot on the diamond in need of help was at first base when J.T. Snow missed time. The team turned to Lance Niekro out of necessity, but the 26-year-old impressed with a solid season. However, the Giants would be best suited to find a left-handed hitting first baseman this winter, as Niekro makes the perfect platoon partner. In 108 at-bats, Niekro hit .324/.361/.657 against southpaws, but just .206/.251/.335 against right-handers. If only Jacque Jones played first, right?

    A final area that was constantly in need of help this season was the san Francisco bullpen. In their quest to find an arm to handle late-game innings, the Giants stumbled across Scott Munter, who would pitch in 45 games for the Giants. And despite a very, VERY low strikeout rate, Munter's good season probably bought him another. Besides Munter, both Jeremy Accardo and Jack Taschner were aked to pitch quite a bit this season.

    Finally, I want to mention that Matt Cain's big September will leave him as a borderline case for my prospect list this winter. If he misses due to too many innings, it's a good thing for Giants fans, as they probably wish that Cain had pitched every inning in 2005.

    Cincinnati Reds

    Does it seem to anyone else like the Cincinnati Reds have been treading water for years? The team seems both immune to rebuilding or reloading, either of which could help this team compete. But instead, they stay afloat, a few games below .500, with an exciting base of players.

    This season was not one for adding to that base, as no great rookies came up for the Reds. Their de facto top prospect of late, Edwin Encarnacion, did play a bit. Edwin showed both plus patience and power, but was dismal in the contact category. His average of .232, combined with 60 strikeouts in 211 at-bats, means that Edwin must hit the ball on the bat more in 2006.

    On the mound, as usual, was the problem for the Reds this year. However, as usual, not a lot was done to fix the problem. The club used a few rookie arms in the bullpen, with Brian Shackleford, Matt Belisle and Todd Correy three of the larger contributors. None of these players would come up in the top ten, or even top thirty rookies in baseball during 2005.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    As you know, not a good year for the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is a fan base that expects to belong in the category of teams that win and lose with money, not rookies. Instead, injuries decimated the weak lineup that Paul DePodesta had created. He was then forced to turn to numerous options at the farm, and will likely have to do more of the same in 2006.

    Specifically, there were two offensive positions that the Dodgers could not find an answer for this year: third base and catcher. The former was supposed to be manned by Jose Valentin, who battled injuries and bad play this season. In his spot, at various times this season, were Oscar Robles, Mike Edwards and Wily Aybar. The latter was the best of the group, with the smallest sample size, but all of these players are simply holding onto the position for the future.

    DePo tried and failed to find a catcher this offseason, and the hole was clearly noticeable throughout the season. The closest person to impressing was Dioner Navarro, formerly an acquisition from the New York Yankees. In 176 at-bats, Navarro hit .273/.354/.375. Not great be any stretch of the imagination, but serviceable, and probably worth a few more at-bats before Russ Martin shows up.

    Our last offensive rookie was an unknown before the season, but yet another case of a big Spring Training. Jason Repko earned a job in Spring Training, and kept it, appearing in 129 games this season. I'm sure the team could do worse on the bench, given Repko's pop, but a .281 OBP? 80 strikeouts in 276 at-bats? This kid better make a few adjustments in 2006, or his first opportunity will quickly become his last.

    Like Repko, on the pitching staff, there were a couple Dodger hurlers that pitched most of the season with the big league club, without fantastic results. Previously unheard of Steve Schmoll appeared in 48 games for the Dodgers, saving three games, but not pitching well. Dodger fans can only hope his 81 ERA+ does not return next season. The same could be said for Rule 5 pick D.J. Houlton, a good pick with less than fantastic results. 5.16 ERA, 145 hits in 129 innings, 21 home runs allowed.

    Finally, I'd like to quickly mention a few other arms that received chances in the bullpen, but didn't pitch enough to warrant mention: Derek Thompson, Franquelis Osoria, and of course, Jonathan Broxton.

    Colorado Rockies

    Another not-so-hot season at high altitude for the Rockies, as this team just does not appear like they will figure out how to win in this environment. What they have figured out, however, is how to implement rookies into what they do.

    We'll have to quickly move through the rookies on this team, simply because there were so many. Specifically, there were three in the infield, and two in the outfield that received a lot of time. In the infield, Garrett Atkins would lead the team in at-bats from third base, hitting .287/.347/.426 in 519 at-bats. A decent performance, and one that surely would have been topped had Clint Barmes remained healthy. Like Ryan Church, Barmes was another RoY-lock when he went down, as he finished the season hitting .289/.330/.434. Finally, we have J.D. Closser, a catcher for whom the Rockies wasted 237 at-bats, at a .219 average, on.

    In the outfield, it's hard to not start with Cory Sullivan. What Matt Holliday brought to the 2004 season, Sullivan brought to 2005, breaking onto the scene and hitting a solid .294/.343/.386. Not as good as Holliday, but he'll make a good bench player. Brad Hawpe is another on the starting/pinch-hitting bubble, as he hit for a .754 OPS this season. He's less athletic than Sullivan, to be sure, but definitely has a higher offensive ceiling.

    Rounding out the offensive rookies, the club also gave at least 80 at-bats to Danny Ardoin, Omar Quintanilla, Jorge Piedra, Ryan Shealy and Eddy Garabito. Shealy was the most impressive of the bunch, and has been named as a potential trade target of the Boston Red Sox. In that scenario, they would have to hope that .143 ISO goes up, not down, when leaving Mile High.

    Something has to be said for 14 wins and 183.2 innings during your rookie caimpaign. However, Jeff Francis struggled in quite a bit of other areas this season, being hit too easily, and not posting the good K/BB ratio he was known for. The Rockies won't give up on him, so that 83 ERA+ should improve next season. Besides Francis, the Rockies really only used two other rookie relievers from their staff. One, a Rule 5 pick, Marcos Carvajal received a rude awakening to Major League life. However, his peripherals are solid, so I look for improvement in 2006. The same cannot be said for Ryan Speier, who to truly impress me, must strike out more than 10 hitters in 24.2 innings.

    Pittsburgh Pirates

    The story of the sedason for the Pittsburgh Pirates was their destruction in the second half, going from a run at .500 to a battle for last place in the NL. The team won, kind of, and will receive the NL's first pick in the 2006 draft. However, despite the losses mounting in the second half, the team had quite a bit of optimism come through in the rookie department.

    There is, of course, no better example of this than Zach Duke. The 2004 minor league ERA leader was fantastic this season, with a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. He pitched over his head, yes, but Duke showed poise that few Pirate pitchers in recent memory have had. Another with a great career start was fellow southpaw Paul Maholm, a former first-rounder that allowed just ten earned runs in his six trial starts. Besides those two, the only other pitcher was Ian Snell, who was more up and down than the two left-handers, despite posting the best strikeout rate of the bunch.

    Moving to the offense, Brad Eldred is sort of the offensive version of Zach Duke. In just 190 at-bats this season, Eldred hit 12 home runs, needing to improve only on contact skills. The Pirates hoped Ryan Doumit would do for them what former-Buc Chris Shelton was doing for Detroit, but no dice. The other rookie I'd like to mention is Chris Duffy, one of many centerfield speedsters, but one who hit .341 in 126 at-bats before a hamstring injury decimated his season.

    At the very least, the end of this season provided a glimmer of hope to the Bucs future. That is, to say, there is one now.

    *****

    Update: Below is my National League Rookie of the Year ballot. There are some notable omissions on this list, and I would love to hear some debate in the comments. If you argue with my pick, please, post your own list as well.

    1. Jeff Francoeur -- Like AL MVP race, defense sets winner above
    2. Ryan Howard -- Very good chance to be better player, home run king
    3. Zach Duke -- Amazing half-season will get him years in Steel City
    4. Wily Taveras -- Extra credit for full season, good team
    5. Garrett Atkins -- Not best hitter, but few had .750+ OPS with 500 AB
    6. Ryan Church -- Would have won award if he stayed healthy and got PT
    7. Brad Halsey -- Season Jeff Francis wish he had
    8. Clint Barmes -- Church was RoY of May, Barmes was RoY of April
    9. Rickie Weeks -- Certainly had his own month of dominance
    10. Robinson Tejeda -- Few rookies pitched in 86 bigger innings

    WTNYOctober 17, 2005
    Breaking 'Em In (Part Three)
    By Bryan Smith

    A few weeks ago, I looked in detail at the American League Rookie of the Year race. I went through every team and analyzed how they broke their rookies in, and then went through my ballot of the league's best. As awards will begin to come out soon, I wanted to get my National League ballot out there as well.

    Over the next two days, we will go over the 16 teams in the National League (in order of record), and look at what rookies had an effect on their season. Tomorrow, I will finish the piece with a look at the ten best National League rookies of 2005.

    As we know, the best teams often don't have to use a lot of rookies (with the exception being the second team on this list), so the top 8 teams listed today aren't really chock-full-o-rooks. However, we often consider team record when evaluating awards, and playing a role on a contender is often much more impressive than playing a role on a bottom feeder. So, we will begin today with the National League's top half, starting with the league's lone 100-win club...

    St. Louis Cardinals

    With a machine like St. Louis, youngsters are not needed in large roles. The Cardinals are a team that fill veterans in every major spot, and fix holes with experience. However, injuries are a funny thing, opening up holes even a great GM like Walt Jocketty could not have planned for.

    This year had a few of those instances with the Cards. Reggie Sanders had a hobbled season in the outfield, only playing half of St. Louis' games in left. Second in innings logged in left was John Rodriguez, a 27-year-old that had been an undrafted free agent in 1997. After a dominant start to the season in Memphis (his OPS was over 1.200), Rodriguez would play 56 games for the Cardinals. During that time the left-hander gave Tony La Russa a solid .295/.382/.436 line, spanning 149 at-bats.

    Second in rookie at-bats to Rodriguez was another veteran minor leaguer, Scott Seabol. The 30-year-old split time all over the diamond, mostly replacing Scott Rolen at the hot corner. Seabol had some heroics with the Cards, but in the end, provided little in way of production. with Rolen returning to the lineup in 2006, you can bet the Cards won't be giving Seabol another 105 at-bats.

    Moving to the mound, the only other place the Cardinals needed anything near full-time help was in the bullpen. After beginning the 2004 season with a professional baseball record of 56.2 consecutive scoreless innings, Brad Thompson's season ended with a rash of injuries. This year, however, the St. Louis front office moved Thompson to the bullpen, where he would pitch in 40 games. Despite less-than-stellar peripherals, Thompson's 2.40 GB/FB ratio shows his sinker is a powerful weapon.

    Rounding out the rookies, the Cardinals gave a bit of time to John Gall in the field, and Anthony Reyes in the rotation. Both could have more significant roles next season, which is more than you can say of Seabol.

    Atlanta Braves

    The opposite of the Cardinals. As you know, every year it looks as if the Braves will not make the playoffs. And every year, they do. What made this year special was that the foundation from past years was gone, forcing Bobby Cox into his most difficult position yet. And with the help of rookies, the Braves won it again.

    Before the season, everyone thought the one area that John Schuerholz did a bad job designing was the outfield corners. The team had Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi penciled in, with very little to offer in way of replacements. Unsurprisingly, the two veterans did not take long to be both injured and ineffective, forcing Cox to improvise on the fly. His first fix was the combination of Ryan Langerhans and Kelly Johnson.

    Both of these two performed admirably; Langerhans' .267/.348/.426 and versatility should make for a good fourth outfielder, and Kelly Johnson sandwiched a bad start and bad finish with very nice play. However, during a slump from both players, the Braves needed another answer, and aggressively turned to one of their top prospects: Jeff Francoeur. At this point, the rest is history. Fantastic play in right field, clutch hitting, the spark this team needed to propel forward. In the end, a .300/.336/.549 line at the age of 21.

    Smaller injuries in the infield would also demand rookies attention, as Chipper Jones, Johnny Estrada and Marcus Giles all went down at some point. Giles would have been replaced by Nick Green if the club hadn't spun him into Leo Mazzone's newest reclimation project: Jorge Sosa. Instead, they one-upped Green, finding Pete Orr, who in 150 at-bats hit a solid .300/.331/.387. Estrada was replaced by Brian McCann, who played so well, that he continued to earn starts when Estrada returned. In his 180 at-bats, McCann hit .275/.348/.451, and likely convinced the Braves to deal/non-tender Estrada over the winter.

    At third, two options were tried. One failed miserably, the other succeeded. If I had asked you before the season to guess which one was Andy Marte, and which was Wilson Betemit, you would have been wrong. Marte struggled badly in his call-up, and finished the season with a .140 average in 57 at-bats. Former top prospect Betemit, on the other hand, may be looked at to replace Rafael Furcal next year after a .305/.359/.435 season. And remember, this was just his age 24 season.

    The pitching side of things goes quicker, as Mazzone managed to keep his staff a little more in tact than the position players. Still, with a hole in the rotation early in the season, the Braves looked to Kyle Davies to fill the role. Like Marte, he wasn't ready. His ERA finished the season at 4.93, which is very good considering his WHIP: 1.68. Look for Davies to get a little more seasoning before thrust into the rotation in 2006.

    Finally, we have the bullpen, where Blaine Boyer gave the Braves more than 40 games. Not really considered a prospect before the season, a move to relieving (and Mazzone) did Boyer well, as he posted a 3.11 ERA. In the end of the season, the team also used Macay McBride in the bullpen, with solid results. 14 innings, 22 strikeouts, and a likely spot in the 2006 pen.

    At least next year Cox' problem will be avoiding sophomore slumps, not dealing with rookies, right?

    Houston Astros

    Before the season, the Astros were on the short list of teams that could house the NL Rookie of the Year. For after a fantastic 2004 season at AAA, Chris Burke looked poised to step right into the Houston lineup. He didn't. Postseason heroics aside, Burke's role was largely a bench one, and his line of .248/.309/.368. We could bash the Astros for playing Biggio in Burke's spot, but it looks like a good decision in hindsight.

    While Burke had been unable to claim a spot in Spring Training, Willy Taveras impressed enough to become the team's leadoff hitter. Acquired from the Indians for scraps, Taveras' speed and contact abilities impressed Phil Garner. These are, however, Taveras' only strengths, as neither his discipline or power is anything to be proud of. Still, leading a Wild Card team in at-bats, hitting .291 in 152 games and stealing 34 bases in a pennant race will make anyone a RoY contender.

    We all know the situation at the top of the Houston rotation, which is one of the best of all-time. Pettite, Oswalt and Clemens. However, what Tim Purpura forgot to do after that was build any depth. And before you knew it, the club was looking into the minors and calling for Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio. Given the rush and the environment, it should not be surprising both players had ERAs over 5.50. However, both showed promise, and the pair will likely battle it out between each other in Spring Training.

    Looking at the team's smaller roles, we next focus on Eric Bruntlett and Chad Qualls. The latter was one of Garner's most dependable relievers, coming into 77 games with a 3.28 ERA. The former was his utility infielder, showing quality defense, enough patience, and quality pop. Unfortunately, this all came with a .220 batting average. But, like Burke, Bruntlett's postseason (turning a fantastic double play in Game 4) might be enough to keep him in his role next year.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Ed Wade built a deep team this season. The Phillies looked poised to make the playoffs, and steal the NL East from the Braves. He had a good lineup with big bats, and a rotation with six arms.

    However, when that sixth arm was needed, he didn't perform. Before the season, we all figured Gavin Floyd was ready for the Major Leagues, that the Phillies were just babying him. Six months later, we all wonder why we liked this guy so much. His ERA was over 10.00 in 26 innings of work, as his control wasn't there, and the curve wasn't enough. So, instead, the club had to go with an unknown commodity, Robinson Tejeda. Once a semi-promising prospect, Tejeda's 2004 had been a bad one, with a 5.15 ERA in Double-A. His 2005 was better, as his Major League ERA was 3.57. If he improves his control, which he will have the opportunity to do in 2006.

    The only other hole that opened on this team was at first base, as Wade had not been planning on Jim Thome to get hurt. He did, however, have a nice back-up plan in stud prospect Ryan Howard. The minor league home run leader in 2004 did not disappoint fans or his team, helping to keep them in the Wild Card race until the last weekend. He was the Phillies answer to Francoeur, hitting .288/.356/.567 in 312 at-bats. 312 at-bats, 22 home runs, as a rookie. Hard to get better than that.

    New York Mets

    New York's payroll makes the depth built by Wade and Jocketty look silly. If the Mets have a hole, they fix it by throwing money at it. No problem. Never would they have the crazy thought of actually building from the inside to out, would they?

    Only one player on the Mets this year was needed for any decent length of time: Victor Diaz. With Mike Cameron spending much of the season on the DL, they turned to Diaz, who has always had the bat, but never played the defense. Same story this year, however Diaz looks much more geared to right field than second base. And his bat? Still looking great after spending 280 at-bats hitting .257/.329/.468.

    The bullpen needed a bit of help, and from the early going, MetsGeek was calling for Heath Bell. The Mets eventually listened, and the veteran minor leaguer would appear in 46.2 innings. His ERA of 5.59 was higher than expected, however, and while his K/BB remained solid, he proved to be just too hittable.

    Finally, I would be remiss not to mention the September breakout on the Mets, even if he didn't exhaust his rookie status. After staring at Doug Mientkiewicz try to hit for much of the season, the play of Mike Jacobs has been enough to excite Mets fans. The former catcher starred in the 100 at-bats he was given at the end of the season, hitting a fantastic .310/.375/.710, and becoming one of the favorites for the 2006 award.

    Florida Marlins

    Oddly enough, it seems as the farther we get down from the top, the less rookies we have to talk about. The Marlins gave just one rookie substantial time this season, while about seven others were given smaller roles. While Matt Treanor, Chris Aguila, Jeremy Hermida, Robert Andino, Joe Dillon, Chris Resop and Scott Olsen probably didn't lose their rookie status, many made enough of an impression to gain a spot on the 2006 depth chart.

    It's clear the Marlins did not know what they had in Jason Vargas before the season. A 2004 second-round pick from Long Beach State, Vargas began the season in the low-A South Atlantic League. Vargas then moved to the FSL, and then again to the Southern League before finding a home in Miami. But don't expect Vargas to move much more, as his 4.03 ERA in 73.2 innings looks like a sign of things to come.

    Next year there should be more rookies to talk about in Miami, as many of the seven above try to break the lineup a second time around.

    San Diego Padres

    The Padres depth chart was a hard one to break this season, as many of the spots were filled by inexpensive veterans. This group led the Padres to an 83-81 record, but also to the playoffs, where they were quickly exhausted by the St. Louis Cardinals. Playing the Cardinals left San Diego with very little room for error, which is what left people criticizing Bruce Bochy's decision to finally implement a rookie.

    He had only appeared in 31 games, only had 75 at-bats, only hit .213. Still, the peripherals spoke highly of 24-year-old Ben Johnson. A .310 on-base percentage, and a .467 slugging thanks to twelve of his sixteen hits being extra-base hits. This bit of pop landed Johnson a starting role in the NLDS, and the rest is history. Despite his poor play in the playoffs, look for Johnson to get more of a role (platoon-guy?) in 2006.

    One rookie we thought might play a lot for the Padres this year was Tim Stauffer. But like Floyd, we were wrong with Stauffer, or right, depending on how you look at it. We knew his ceiling was not a high one, destined for a career at the back of a rotation. What we didn't think was that if Stauffer (a flyball pitcher) was given 14 starts on a team that played half their games in PETCO, that his ERA would finish at 5.33. Let's hope the Pads give him more of a chance next year, as he could very well shade a whole point off that ERA.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Finally, a team with a lot of rookies! The rebuilding movement is in full effect in Milwaukee, and worked very well this season, as the Brewers finally made it back to .500. This is, without doubt, partly due to a rookie middle infield, and a bullpen that Mike Maddux contructed out of rookies and no-names.

    Coming out of Spring Training, J.J. Hardy had a job at shortstop. That job did not appear so safe after a first half in which Hardy hit .183/.293/.267, only showing patience as a skill. But after a talk with Prince Fielder, who informed Hardy his swing had changed, things began to click in the head of the 23-year-old. In the second half, Hardy showed promise, hitting .308/.363/.503 in 185 at-bats. You can bet the Brewers will gamble that the second version was the real Hardy next year.

    The opposite of Hardy was true with Rickie Weeks, who began the season in AAA, but was called up to the Brewers relatively early in the year. At first glance, his .239/.333/.394 line in 360 at-bats does not look very impressive from the former second overall choice. However, his numbers significantly slumped late in the year, as Weeks had a thumb injury (torn ligament) that he played through. If Weeks can make better contact in 2006, look for him to finally become the star we have been waiting for.

    In the bullpen, four names got a decent amount of playing time with the Big League squad: Dana Eveland, Justin Lehr, Jose Capellan and Jorge De La Rosa. The last was the first to be pitching in the pen, and his 38 appearances was the most of the group. And despite his 4.46 ERA being the third highest of the foursome, no one impressed me more. However, I was very influenced by an April outing against the Cubs: 2 innings, one hit, no runs, five strikeouts. His 2.03 WHIP? Less impressive.

    The other three were just part time fixes for the club. Eveland was the worst of the group, now in the AFL looking to get back into starting. Lehr was acquired for Keith Ginter, and outplayed him at the Major League level, as 23 appearances with a sub-4.00 ERA does that. And finally, we have Capellan, converted to relief in June, and paying the Brewers dividends in September, with his 2.87 ERA across 15.2 innings.

    Next year, expect even more rookies to play, as Prince Fielder and Corey Hart will stop being found on prospect lists. But give Doug Melvin some credit, because this thing is really starting to work.

    WTNYOctober 07, 2005
    Friday Notes
    By Bryan Smith

    Let's jump right into it...

  • The Wednesday firing of Chuck Lamar can only mean good things for the Tampa Bay franchise. But more than anything else, it shows that new owner Stuart Sternberg has some dedication towards building a successful organization. Sternberg says he is in no rush to find a new GM or manager, and will not necessarily hire one before the other. This is fine, and even a good sign that the owner is dedicated, but I can't help but think the team should be selling these jobs to ex-Astros Gerry Hunsicker and Larry Dierker. Few teams offer the promise of a better turnover rate, which should help re-establish the combo at the combo they deserve: one of the best GM/manager tandems available.

    However, whoever comes in for Tampa Bay has a few roster decisions to make before this team has any success. Quite a few roster decisions, actually. First on the plate will be choosing whether or not to tender Toby Hall a contract, the middle-of-the-road catcher that never stepped forward. Next this GM must explore a trade of Aubrey Huff, as he would have one of the bigger bats on the Who's Available List. Besides that, there is the B.J. Upton decision, sorting out the crowded outfield, and re-building one has consistently been one of the game's worst pitching staffs.

    Still, don't feel too bad for whoever gets this job. Assuming Sternberg continues to show a winning attitude when the topic of payroll comes up, they will be fine. It is just too difficult to expect any GM to win in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox with the budget that Chuck Lamar had. Give the new GM another $20 million to play with, and this team does have a shot of contending in 2008-2010 like we always imagined.

  • The Arizona Fall League began without much coverage on Tuesday, as can be expected for the league with the collection of some of the minors best talent. While the league isn't quite as stacked as when I analyzed it earlier in the season -- players like J.J. Hardy have since dropped out -- it still profiles to be offense, offense, offense.

    And as you may have expected, two players that are already succeeding in the league are Brandon Wood and Stephen Drew. Both shortstops started with two home runs in just as many games, including a game-winning hit for Drew on Wednesday. On the mound, the best performance thus far has to be Jered Weaver, with his two-inning, six strikeout performance to start the "season." Runner-ups are Adam Loewen and Scott Mathieson, both who dominated in three innings of work out of the gate.

    However, my prediction for MVP is very similar to last year's winner Chris Shelton: Ryan Garko. In a league where offense rules, going with the most polished offensive player can never hurt. Garko has come out of the gate quick, and probably realizes he has a shot at a job with the Indians if his success (in hitting LHP) continues. Garko will do just that in the AFL, giving Mark Shapiro a nice 1B platoon of Ben Broussard and Garko.

  • Despite facing the league's most dominant pitcher from both 2005 and the rest of the last century, the Atlanta Braves inched towards shocking the world yesterday. While the Braves had a better record and home field advantage in this series, few game them a shot to win over a team like Houston -- built for a short series. However, Atlanta's resilience was on true display against Clemens, especially in the young bat of Brian McCann.

    I will be breaking down the NL rookie class in more detail next week, so let's just say that McCann is one of the unsung heroes of the class. His 180 at-bats behind the plate will ruin any chance of garnering ROY votes, but McCann stepped in nicely when Johnny Estrada went down: .278/.345/.400. This leaves the Braves front office with a difficult decision, as Estrada continued to decline in putting up a .670 OPS this season. However, what Estrada lacks in offense he probably makes up in defense, as his 31% caught stealing rate was nearly double McCann's (18.5%).

    One route would be to split up the pitching staff by catcher, with each pitcher having his preference man the plate that day. This probably would work better than a platoon, as both players (despite McCann's sample size numbers in the Majors) prefer right-handed pitchers. However, the most likely option is that Johnny Estrada is on his way out, and that Brian McCann will have 1-2 short years to prove what Estrada couldn't -- that he is a better option at backstop than the farm's best catcher.

    And at that point, no one will bring up caught stealing numbers. Both will be too low.

  • Today, Eric Gagne has called for Dodger ownership to spend more money. My question is not which free agents will become a part of this organization, but how they will block the Majors most loaded farm system. Let's take a look at the Dodgers position-by-position:

    Catcher - Do not expect the Dodgers to add a big-name bat at this position. If any Dodger fan was excited by Dioner Navarro, just wait until the team calls up Russ Martin. The latter is simply a rich man's Navarro, as both don't appear to have super-strengths, but are fantastic across the board. And then when you don't know it, Martin has dropped a .400 OBP on you. Given the ease in hitters adjusting to the PCL, expect Martin to be ready after the All-Star Break, at the latest.

    First Base - One of the larger problems that Jim Tracy and Paul DePodesta had was that Tracy just did not buy into DePo's theories. One of those was that Hee Seop Choi could be an everyday first baseman. Choi put up a .789 OPS this season, not playing everyday, and will almost surely have the chance to do that next year. If he falters, and James Loney continues to improve, we could see that change happen. If neither player brings any consistency to the table, look for DePo to look into the FA market in 2006-2007.

    Second Base - Jeff Kent has one more year left with the Dodgers, and they might as well play him at second base. I'm not a huge fan of the options waiting below the surface -- Delwyn Young, Wily Aybar -- so there is no reason to move Kent to accomodate them. In 2007, the team will probably play one of those two players, as they either bridge the gap to Travis Denker, or bridge the gap to a free agent signing.

    Shortstop - Cesar Izturis is their man, but he won't be able to contribute in the early going of the season. Don't expect anything too dramatic, like a Joel Guzman promotion, but instead a solid bench player. With Izturis making $7.25 million the next two seasons, there is no reason to sign any player that will dethrone Izturis. Instead, signing a Ramon Martinez-like player is probably best for the franchise. Izturis has this position for the near future.

    Third Base - This is where the Dodgers face a dilemna. There is no question that they have to add a bat to this offense, but they also have a great player nearly-ready in the minors. Andy LaRoche has all the makings of a future All-Star, and will even bring great defense back to this position. Again, Guzman does not make sense at the position in the short or long-term. Instead, the team will be forced to go after Bill Mueller or Joe Randa to fill in for a year.

    Outfield -- In one spot, there is J.D. Drew, who besides injuries, will not be going anywhere for awhile. In another, there could be Milton Bradley, who is up for arbitration again. Both of these players are definitely worth bringing back. The third position is another question mark, much like third base. The Dodgers know that their most talented young player, Joel Guzman, will be ready fairly soon. However, it's hard to stake a future on an unknown commodity, especially one that took so long to develop in the minors. At this point the best option is probably to sign someone like Jose Cruz Jr., and re-evaluate in another year.

    Starting Rotation - Let me start by saying I think the Dodgers should re-sign Jeff Weaver. This should be, in my opinion, priority #1. When that deal is complete, the Dodgers have four solid starters in Weaver, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and Odalis Perez. We know that Chad Billingsley and others (Edwin Jackson, Chuck Tiffany, Justin Orenduff, etc) are not far away, and one could even surprise the club in March and steal a spot. However, it's probably not intelligent to bank on that. So, my vote is this is the spot where the Dodgers spend money. Don't go for the top two guys, too overpaid, but someone in the next tier like Jarrod Washburn. A southpaw who will fit well in Dodger Stadium, and probably won't even be forced to move. It gives the Dodgers a veteran starting rotation for 2006, allowing them to give their prospects all the time needed.

    What would you do if Paul DePodesta this winter?

  • Thanks to Kevin Goldstein, already loved in our hearts due to the Baseball America Player Reports, minor league statistics just took a step forward. With BA's new Player Finder, we can see groundball-to-flyball rates. This tool allows us to tell you things like Adam Loewen had a 2.58 GB/FB ratio, giving him one of the minors best K+GB rates in the game. This is, of course, why I think Loewen will continue to be one of the best pitchers in the AFL. On the other end of the spectrum is Matt Cain, with a 0.60 groundball rate, which is likely one of the reasons he gave up 22 home runs on the season. Although don't let this effect your opinion of Cain, his home games will be in San Fran -- he'll only be in Denver a couple times per year.

    That's all for now. Expect more notes to be added as the day goes on, and check back this weekend as the Baseball Analysts will have new content on both Saturday and Sunday. Take care...

  • WTNYOctober 05, 2005
    Ken Williams v. Baseball Public
    By Bryan Smith

    Breaking News: On the heels of a 99-63 regular season and Game 1 destruction of the World Champions, Ken Williams shocked the baseball world yesterday by bringing suit against its followers. The fifth-year GM's claim is that the public has been too outspoken in their criticisms against him, and is demanding universal recognition of his skills. Williams has pointed to Moneyball, as well as other factors, as reasons behind the misconception. Below is a brief from the proceedings...

    Issue Brought Before Court: Is Ken Williams one of baseball's most underrated General Managers?

    Argument of the Defense: When Ron Scheuler retired from the Chicago White Sox after the 2000 season, he left an organization on the verge of success. The club Scheuler left behind had won 95 games during the regular season, only to be crushed in the playoffs at the hands of the Seattle Mariners. There was universal agreement for the reasoning behind the White Sox' ultimate downfall: pitching, or lack thereof.

    The offense in 2000, led behind Frank Thomas, was one of the American League's best. Furthermore, much of it was in position to return the following season, leaving little on the plate of Scheuler's successor (Williams). Williams did not even have to worry about the bullpen, which had been great behind Keith Foulke and Bobby Howry. With the promise of good, young pitching going up the ladder, Williams was told to acquire a veteran ace, and find a way to make everything mesh.

    Fans watched as good teams underachieved for four seasons (2001-2004), as the rotation never truly clicked. David Wells, Williams' first attempt, had a horrible season with the Sox, as many indicators should have signaled. Jim Parque also was injured during the season, which proved to be a devastating loss. Then in 2002, Williams tried to add Todd Ritchie, following a career year. However, the cost -- Kip Wells, Sean Lowe, Josh Fogg -- was disastrously higher than Ritchie's output. The next season was the Bartolo Colon expiriment, one that ended in one of Colon's worst seasons yet.

    Another problem within the rotation was that of the fifth starter. While many in the sabermetric field have called for the return of the four-man rotation, someone forgot to completely explain it to Williams. Instead of constantly repeating the same four starters, Williams thought the idea gave him permission to bring a club to camp with only four viable starters. This led to a long winless streak from the #5 spot, as Dan Wright, Felix Diaz, Jason Grilli and others can attest to.

    These issues just highlight a significant theme that Williams has issues with: replacement. Problems in the rotation are just one example where Williams has taken too long to put proper replacements in place. Another example is second base, which was vacated by Ray Durham when he was traded to the A's during the 2002 season. The club finished the year with Tony Graffanino gaining most of the playing time. The next season, however, Williams mixed D'Angelo Jimenez (a good acquisition that was poorly handled) and Roberto Alomar (a poor acquisition that was poorly handled). In 2004, the team let Willie Harris have the job, during which time Harris proved to be nothing more than a bench player.

    While Tadahito Iguchi appears to be the answer to the White Sox 2B woes, it took Williams over two seasons to find the right fit. The same is true behind the plate, where after Charles Johnson, a bad mixture of players split time before A.J. Pierzynski arrived on the scene. Williams also chose to have a left side of Royce Clayton and Jose Valentin, despite being able to move Valentin over and play Joe Crede during his prime. We could also guess the same would still be true in center field, if Aaron Rowand hadn't taken a step forward in the 2004 season, and made himself a full-time player.

    These issues could likely be resolved if Williams was active in the free agent market. However, seldom do the White Sox make a splash, as Jermaine Dye is pretty much the largest signing under Williams' tenure. This is a disastrous notion for a team in one of the largest markets in the country. Mix this with a trading career blemished with disasters -- Todd Ritchie, Koch/Foulke, Carlos Lee -- and you have a bad General Manager.

    If time wasn't up, the issues raised in Moneyball could just add to the obvious facts.

    Argument of the Plaintiff
    : First of all, the snide remarks from the defense are not appreciated. Nor are the lack of facts. In 2001, what held the White Sox back was not Williams' inability to bring in the right team, but injuries. Frank Thomas went down (prompting a genius PR move -- signing Jose Canseco), as well as Jim Parque, David Wells, Bill Simas, and ineffectiveness/injuries from James Baldwin and Kelly Wunsch. Even Branch Rickey would find such problems difficult to overcome.

    We will concede the Todd Ritchie trade -- a disaster, and the lowpoint of Williams career. He more than made up for it in 2003, however, acquiring Bartolo Colon, in addition to finding Esteban Loaiza on the free agent market. The what? Yes, the free agent market that the defense claims scares Williams. This is not true, but instead, he is simply able to find bargains. A look at the mid-level free agents acquired by Williams in his tenure: Alan Embree, Kenny Lofton, Esteban Loaiza, Shingo Takatsu, Cliff Politte, Dustin Hermanson, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, A.J. Pierzynski.

    None of these players made more than $6 mllion in the season that Williams signed them. They did, however, provide both veteran leadership and very good statistics at a low cost. This must be considered Williams best trait, as he deserves credit for many of their unexpected random career spikes.

    Another strength is Williams increased ability to do well on the trade market. While a few of his larger trades are victim to scrutinization, Ken has been on the right side of the fence more often than not. Quick, defense, name the worst young player the White Sox have given up? Thinking, thinking, can't think of any? The closest is Jeremy Reed, a player blocked by players in front and behind him, and the necessary bounty for a Freddy Garcia acquisition. After Reed there is nothing, allowing a player like Aaron Miles to slip into the argument.

    Williams also has acquired quite a bit of talent. The Bartolo Colon trade was a fantastic one that forced the White Sox to give up little more than Antonio Osuna and Rocky Biddle. His 2002 deadline deals, just short of the White Flag era, landed some impressive, if not fantastic, talent. The Garcia trade gave the White Sox a middle-of-the-rotation starter that they badly needed. Finally, both Carl Everett and Jose Contreras were good deals that helped Chicago both in the short and long-term.

    And, if nothing else, Williams knows his market. He understood that Ozzie Guillen would become a Chicago icon, and made the very bold hiring after getting rid of Jerry Manuel. He also knew the Chicago fanbase would fall in love with blue-collar outfielder Scott Podsednik, even at the expense of Lee. The outcome? A big home run, and another swipe from second-to-third in the largest game of Podsednik's career: Game 1, yesterday.

    It's unfair to blame the White Sox inability to make the playoffs from 2001-2004 on Ken Williams. It is not, however, a stretch to say that Williams provided the blueprint for this team in 2005. His ability to build the AL's best pitching staff, and a viable offense, is what landed the White Sox in the playoffs.

    Opinion of the Court
    : Ken Williams is, without question, an underrated General Manager. However, this comes with a few stipulations, as one must understand Williams' flaws to rate him properly amongst his peers.

    First of all, Williams constantly looks to fix holes from the trade market, rather than from free agents. Whether this is a mandate given to himself or from his owner, we don't know, but the Sox have never been able to land a big name during the Ken Williams Era. He also is guilty to overpay at times, when a certain player will help his team in the short term. The trades of Kip Wells, Carlos Lee and Jeremy Reed all prove that much.

    Williams does, in fact, deserve fair recognition, though. He is great at finding cheap, mid-range talent, and has made a nice stab at rebuilding a declining fan base. Seldom does he waver from his original plan, as well, and has every hole accounted for in February.

    The Court finds in favor of Ken Williams, and orders all readers to admit to Williams genius in the comments...

    WTNYSeptember 28, 2005
    Breaking 'Em In (Part 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    More than any other award, the Rookie of the Year trophy awards performance. While the other main end-of-season awards surely rely most heavily on an individual's output, rarely will a winner come from a non-competitive team. With the Rookie of the Year award, performing on a competitive team only adds to one's resume, while the opposite hardly demands exclusion.

    Yesterday, I went through the best 7 teams in the American League, and looked at the rookies that were implemented into the Major League roster. The number of players per team increases as we move down the ladder, and is quite high with bottom feeders like the Royals, Devil Rays and Mariners. Simply, these organizations have far less to risk by rushing a prospect, and letting him learn on the fly.

    Today I want to look at the worst seven clubs in the AL, and examine how they used rookies throughout this season. And then, at the end of today's piece, I will be the first to hand in my Rookie of the Year ballot, with brief explanations for my choices. In order of descending records:

    Texas Rangers

    As always, the offense was the least of the Rangers problems in 2005. The club was third in the AL in runs scored, but third from the bottom in runs allowed. This continued problem forced John Hart to pick quite a bit from the minor leagues. The season will now finish with three of those rookies in the rotation, while at least two others received chances.

    Chris Young entered the season as the best known of the group, but more for his size (6-10) and basketball history than his pitching. By July 1, Young had won eight games, and Orel Hershiser was getting pats on the back for refining the right-hander. The wheels have since come off a bit, as Chris has won only three games since then. His July was atrocious, and the club contemplated shutting Young down towards the end of the year. He'll enter 2006 with big expectations, as the club will hope to see what they did from May 1 to June 30 for an entire season.

    Second in the rotation in size, and second in rookie performance is Kameron Loe. Standing 6-8, Loe also doesn't bring the velocity you would expect from a pitcher taller than 75 inches. Like Chien-Ming Wang yesterday, Loe's strikeout numbers will hardly command respect from the sabermetric crowd. However, he has a 2.42 GB/FB ratio in one of the Majors most difficult parks for pitchers. His 3.04 ERA since the All-Star Break will tease Texas fans all offseason.

    Height will get you a long ways, but sometimes, nicknames will get you farther. Juan Dominguez was dubbed "Little Pedro" in the minors, when he developed one of the better professional change ups. However, his inability to develop anything else led to struggles in both the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Working close with Hershiser, Dominguez is another who has improved as the season has progressed. He will give up his share of home runs, but that's a pill the Rangers must swallow considering his 3.45 post-break ERA.

    A comparison never dies, it just gets passed on. Dominguez' went to another pitcher in the organization this year, when Edison Volquez impressed Ranger brass with electric stuff. Beginning the year in the Cal League, Volquez had a chance -- and failed -- to break into the rotation in August. In that regard, he is joined by C.J. Wilson, another rushed player, albeit with a considerable smaller ceiling than Volquez. The only non-pitcher to get any time with the team was Adrian Gonzalez, who finally exhausted his rookie status, and continued to prove he's nothing more than the bad version of Carlos Pena.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    This was supposed to be the year everything was put together in the J.P. Ricciardi plan. Of course this did not happen, although the Jays were able to mix in rookies with veterans, as Ricciardi had planned. His farm system is middle of the pack though, and you can bet ownership was paying close attention to the two former first-round picks that received quite a bit of playing time.

    The incumbent starter up the middle in April was Russ Adams, who had been drafted out of UNC in 2002. After a fantastic .887 OPS in 72 September at-bats last year, expectations were high for Adams this season. So much so, that Adams had more at-bats from the leadoff spot than anyone else this year. His output was very modest, however, with an OPS that could fall on either side of .700 as the season closes. Improved patience and a low strikeout rate will make the Blue Jays think about giving Adams the #2 spot in the lineup next year, although he must hit southpaws with more consistency. Expect a sophomore improvement as his BABIP rises from .272.

    Unlike Adams, Aaron Hill can't blame bad luck for his 2005 struggles. Instead, the only way to explain what happened is to say that the former 2003 first rounder fell flat on his face. After making a lot of noise when entering the Majors -- his batting line was .337/.393/.476 at the All-Star Break-- the wheels came off as the season wore on. Hill has hit just .207 since the Midsummer Classic, with both an IsoP and ISO under .100. Neither is an acceptable number, especially one who spent much of his season at third base.

    Please note that Hill was much better against southpaws than right-handers, indicating that the Blue Jays could platoon the combo next year.

    But as modest as the two hyped players performed, the opposite was true for the Blue Jays 2004 minor league pitcher of the year. Gustavo Chacin, with his weird delivery and new cutter, began -- and is in the midst of finishing -- his rookie season with gusto. The southpaw picked up four wins in April, and after a combination of bad luck and ineffectiveness, would win just two more by July 1. Chacin then won 5 games in July, and has finished out the season marginal in the win column. But he has been as consistent as any Blue Jay starter this year, and will slot in very nicely behind Roy Halladay in the 2006 rotation.

    Detroit Tigers

    Dave Dambrowski is not one for children. An acclaimed rebuilder, Dave's job in the Florida, and what he is trying in Detroit, are both more veteran-oriented than anything else. Rookies have their chance, for sure, but it was a difficult thing to do, without question.

    The only position really dedicated to rookies this year was the centerfield spot. This became true in late April when Nook Logan took the job, after a fantastic start to the season. But as he gained more at-bats, Logan began to look more like Nook Logan, and his season will finish where we would have predicted: with a sub-.750 OPS. However, Nook didn't have the job for his entire plight, as the Tiger blue-chip prospect, Curtis Granderson, took over in late July. With fare less fanfare than a Murton or Francoeur, Curtis secured himself a 2006 starting spot with an .863 OPS.

    Besides center, the only other two examples are of rushed prospects. Justin Verlander was called up to Detroit on two different occasions, when it looked as if the 2004 top five pick had proven all he could in the minors. But his struggles have likely convinced the Tigers to start Justin in Toledo in 2006. The other prospect rushed was Tony Giarratano, who started quite a few games up the middle after gaining notice with a .333 Spring Training batting average. The Tulane product even began his career well, getting on-base five times in his first ten plate appearances, before reaching just six more in his next 37.

    Baltimore Orioles

    With a similar stance to Dambrowski, and 'legitimate' Wild Card hopes, rookies were never going to be an important part of the Baltimore Orioles in 2005. Furthermore, if the season had continued on like the first two months, with the Orioles flying high, a rookie may not have ever even sniffed the roster. But as the injuries and losses began to mount, more and more rookies broke into the lineup.

    Things began to crumble in May, when Luis Matos went down, and the club made an all-too-aggressive decision. Following a good debut and start to his Carolina League season, the Orioles called up Jeff Fiorentino in May. He was fine if not fantastic before being sent back to high-A, but showed a lot of poise despite being thrown into the fire. Then when rotation and bullpen injuries struck in late May/early June, the club turned to Hayden Penn and Chris Ray. Penn struggled in the Majors, while Ray continued to pitch well out of the bullpen.

    As a result, Ray was the Oriole rookie with the most 2005 experience. Later in the season, a couple others -- Walter Young and John Maine -- had chances, but it looks as if only Ray truly stuck with the team. An improving farm system and upcoming organizational philosophy shift will likely provide Baltimore fans with more young guns to watch in 2006 and 2007.

    Seattle Mariners

    This is when the rookies begin to really mount. All the buzz in Seattle has been around one rookie this season -- Felix Hernandez -- who has played well to earn all the credit. The teenager is a very special talent, and his fantastic debut is remarkable. It's really too bad it couldn't have happened at a different time, however, as his late start all-but-prevented Hernandez from a high finish in the Rookie of the Year race.

    In fact, only one rookie went the distance with the Mariners this year, and it's one you are likely to hear complaints about from Mariner fans: Matt Thornton. The hard-throwing southpaw stuck it out all season, despite numerous bouts with control and general ineffectiveness. Another aging rookie to join Thornton on the pitching staff was Jeff Harris, who did his best Ryan Franklin impression during his stay. Organizations could do worse than Harris as their fifth starter, but blueprinting any team in February with his name on the depth chart is a bad idea.

    While no rookie truly took the job, the shortstop belonged to a host of different ones throughout the year. It began with Wilson Valdez, who had been a waiver claim from the White Sox in April. Despite good defense, Valdez did not last long, and he was gradually replaced by another White Sox refugee, Mike Morse. Morse made waves in Seattle after a strong start (.856 pre-Break OPS), but fell out of favor with a poor finish, mixed in with a steroid suspension.

    After Morse came the rookie that took the job, and probably the second-best Mariner rookie behind King Felix in 2005: Yuniesky Betancourt. The Cuban signing from the winter was thrown into a tough situation quickly, but gave the Mariners just what they suspected. It did not take long for the Mariner to become a regular on Web Gems, and Seattle fans will gloat about his defense to whoever will listen. Betancourt's problem is his offense, which is inept besides a good strikeout rate.

    Other rookies for the Mariners included minor league veteran Greg Dobbs, as well as an offensive contingent that tried handling left field: Chris Snelling, Jamal Strong, Shin-Soo Choo. It's likely that none will stick, as the Mariners will likely sign a left-handed left fielder this winter.

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    This is the place for rookies. And you can only expect that to improve when the Devil Rays change managers at year's end, and young guns stop being blocked by players like Damon Hollins. Sure, if we mentioned Aaron Small yesterday, Hollins deserves a mention, but he was more a means to an end than the opposite.

    In fact, it's likely that Hollins did more harm than good. One thing we know for sure is that his presence delayed the promotion of Jonny Gomes, who unsurprisingly took very little time to become one of the Devil Rays best bats. Tampa will realize that a poor free agent class will open up a considerable market for Aubrey Huff, whose exit from the organization is helped by the presence of Gomes' bat. Hollins also took playing time from Joey Gathright, who while not as damaging to the scoreboard as Gomes, surely would have produced far more electricity in Tropicana than Hollins.

    On the mound, the key rookie was Scott Kazmir, who topped the 100 walk mark yesterday. Besides control problems, Kazmir had a fantastic season, winning ten games and striking out 174 batters. His stuff is as good as anyone in the AL East, but Kazmir must hit his spots better with that fastball before making the jump to the next level. A similar thing is true of Seth McClung, who is quite simply the bad version of Kazmir. 62 walks, 88 strikeouts in 101.1 innings. A 7.11 ERA. Yikes.

    Finally, the club's bullpen, one of their strongest parts, was anchored heavily by Chad Orvella. Following a fantastic 2004 minor league season, Orvella has the chance at finishing the season with 40 appearances if the week ends right. His stuff is not quite there, but Orvella challenges hitters in a similar way to Huston Street.

    Kansas City Royals

    The bullpen was just one of many places that rookies saw time with the pathetic Royals in 2005. The relief corps was also home to the organization's most exciting rookies, though many will be calling for changes back to the starting spot this winter.

    Leading that group is Andy Sisco, their Rule 5 selection, who performed even better than we could have dreamed in December. The big southpaw has pitched in nearly 75 innings with the team, striking out just that many while keeping his ERA under 3. He has been the Royals best out of the bullpen, but never gained the trust from a manager to be given the closer role. The Royals would likely be best to leave Sisco in the bullpen, where he has flourished in short outings that lessen his issues with control. The same is true for Ambiorix Burgos and Leo Nunez, two live-armed right-handers that also made the switch in 2005. Burgos was fantastic this year, just one season removed from pitching in the low-A Midwest League.

    In the rotation, the season began with Denny Bautista pitching every fifth day. I had high hopes for Bautista, who I have loved since the 2003 Futures Game, but his season was ruined with injury in the early going. He was replaced by 2004 first-round pick J.P. Howell, a southpaw with a repertoire as far different from Bautista's as one can get. Howell saw considerable struggles in 2005, but as I've said before, I do believe he has a career in the Mark Redman mold ahead of him.

    One of the preseason favorites to win Rookie of the Year was Mark Teahen, the player that Royals brass fell in love with when scouting during the 2004 Carlos Beltran auction. But Teahen's bat never came alive this season, and one can bet it won't be long until second overall pick Alex Gordon is breathing down his back. Another trade acquisition, Chip Ambres, also made his debut this year, although expectations were far lower than Teahen. Ambres started off hot, so much so that he may have earned himself a starting job in 2006.

    Joining him in the opposite outfield corner will likely be Matt Diaz, who was one of many bats the Royals tried to use this season. Both Justin Huber and Shane Costa were rushed to add more punch to the lineup, and unsurprisingly, neither succeeded in such a role. Huber, however, still has a good chance at helping the organization.

    *****

    After two days worth of examining organizations, it is time to narrow the field and make my picks for the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year. The field was substantially mediocre this year, as well as being very deep.

    Bryan's Big Ten Rookies of the Year

    1. Joe Blanton - Had thrown more pitches than Street did all season by June 19.
    2. Huston Street - Should have been the Padres discount pick in 2004.
    3. Jonny Gomes - Top bat, and it isn't even close.
    4. Tadahito Iguchi - Hard to appreciate unless you watch him for awhile.
    5. Gustavo Chacin - Toronto's Blanton. A rock with a resume just a bit worse.
    6. Scott Kazmir - Might become best player on the list if control and consistency improve.
    7. Robinson Cano - September batting line: .382/.396/.685.
    8. Dan Johnson - Beats Swisher because of consistency. Higher in VORP, lower in Win Shares.
    9. Chris Young - Would have been higher without second half troubles.
    10. Nick Swisher - Has good chance of becoming best bat.
    11. Felix Hernandez - Product of call-up date rather than performance.

    Eight honorable mentions that just missed inclusion, in no particular order: Russ Adams, Ambiriox Burgos, Kameron Loe, Chien-Ming Wang, Bobby Jenks, Ervin Santana, Andy Sisco, Jesse Crain (exclusion from yesterday).

    As always, tell me why I'm wrong in the comments. And to change things up, also list your top 5 2005 rookies in terms of career value. Who will become the best?

    WTNYSeptember 27, 2005
    Breaking 'Em In (Part 1)
    By Bryan Smith

    There are many factors to having a good farm system. Successful drafting and a powerful international presence helps, as it gets pre-professional stars into the organization. Also important is having a teaching staff ready to develop these kids from short-season ball all through the minors. But most importantly, teams must not be afraid to implement these players into their organizational plans.

    Many teams have a few good prospects waste away in the minors, as the team would much rather have a player with a well-known name playing than the young kid. But as the Braves can tell you, after going from Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi to Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur, sometimes the prospects are the best bet. This is just one of the many reasons that has made Atlanta successful over the years, as in no season was the club not playing some rookie.

    This season saw an upswing in the time given to rookies. Prominent organizations have began to see the light more, and realize what kind of production prospects can give them. This increased farm system trust is a good thing all the way around, as all of the contending AL teams can tell you. In the first part of this series, which should cover all 30 teams, I wanted to look at what the minor leagues contributed to the 7 best American League ballclubs.

    New York Yankees

    What can two hundred million dollars buy, you ask? Apparently an extremely top-heavy team, lacking depth completely, as the 2005 version of the Yankees can attest. This was not a club built to handle injury, or worse, performance endemics. It was not prepared for Tony Womack to fall flat on his face, as many predicted, causing a call-up of their top second base prospect. It wasn't expecting Bernie Williams to be unable to continue playing the outfield, bringing a center fielder from the minors that had no business in the Majors. And it surely wasn't built to handle the injuries and inconsistency brought forth by Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano.

    Still, the Yankees prevailed, and must be considered a playoff favorite with just six days of regular season baseball remaining. This can largely be attributed to the play of three minor league call-ups: Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang and Aaron Small. At last count, the Hardball Times gave the three a total of 23 Win Shares, good for nearly 8 wins. But considering their play, when the Yankees needed it the most, I have the feeling Joe Torre would say eight was low-balling it.

    For example, Cano has now played more than 120 games this season, in which he was expected to gain more experience at AAA Columbus. Instead, Robinson has been thrown into the fire, and performed brilliantly. A .294 batting average, 51 extra-base hits, only 66 strikeouts. Cano has drawbacks -- Yankee Stadium, southpaws, and defense -- but he is one of the smallest problems on a Yankee team that will surely be tweaked considerably this winter.

    One must also expect the Yankees will give either of the two starters a job next season. Small has pitched worse than his perfect record indicates, but it also says that he keeps his club in games. If either of the players is going to lose a job, it would likely be Small, a minor league veteran with a relief history. But this team could do far worse than to stick Small in the swingman role, using him when injuries demand it. And with this team, you know they will.

    Wang likely will have a full-time job next year, even if his strikeouts call for a sophomore slump. However, Wang's propensity for the groundball, as his 2.91 GB/FB attests, might allow him to avoid such a fall. His FIP, another THT stat, is just a few points higher than his ERA. In fact, it appears that Wang will be one of the more reliable players on a volatile pitching staff next year. As Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina age, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright stay battered, and Shawn Chacon comes back to life, I think you'll find Wang become the Yanks' rock in 2006.

    Other, less successful, tours were given to Melky Cabrera and Sean Henn. Both players might contribute down the road, but were rushed following minor league hot streaks. It's great to see the Yankees, an organization long removed from giving minor leaguers a chance, re-shift their organizational philosophy. Now it's just a matter of picking and choosing who to trade and who to keep, rather than trading them all. Yankees fans will like the new way better, even if the columnists in need of news and big names do not.

    Boston Red Sox

    Designed far differently than the Yankees, fans could have guessed before the season that minor leaguers would not be a big part of the 2005 season. They would have been right. This was a generally healthy team that was built for both injuries and inconsistencies, and have dealt with both appropriately. It is an organization that is building a farm system from scratch, and entered the '05 year with very little at the top.

    One of the winter's unheralded signings was surely Roberto Petagine's return to America. After years of dominance in Japan, the Red Sox brought him back, stashing him most of the year in Pawtucket. This move could be argued, as Kevin Millar had a horrible season, and Petagine produced both in the minors and a Major League small sample. However, it looks that Petagine might just be a quad-A player, and given the leadership and experience that John Olerud provides, Roberto is expendable.

    Quite the opposite is the state of Jon Papelbon. After a good 2004 season, Papelbon was considered one of the Red Sox top, if a bit raw, pitching prospects. But he was anything but in the early going this year, posting one of the best K/BB ratios in the Eastern League. Papelbon was promoted to Pawtucket for only a short time before being thrown in the fire, first at his new role as a starter, and then ultimately his collegiate role as a reliever. Both roles work for Papelbon, who will probably continue to pitch in both during the 2006 season. But given his ceiling, it would be a shame if the Red Sox forced their talented prospect to make the full-time switch back to relieving.

    A few short-needed times of bullpen health called for appearances from Abe Alvarez, Cla Meredith and Craig Hansen. 6.1 innings and 13 earned runs later, it's time to count those all as rush jobs.

    Chicago White Sox

    Despite the offensive inadequacy and pitching prowess from this season, the White Sox' needs from their minor league system were backwards this season. Besides Tadahito Iguchi, who was never a minor leaguer, the only other prospect to receive 20 at-bats was Brian Anderson. Instead, the Sox needed 2 pitchers, Bobby Jenks and Brandon McCarthy, to fill important roles.

    And it has been their play that has forced Ozzie Guillen to continually use the combination. In fact, in just a short half-season, White Sox fans have been treated to watching the development of a future ace and a future closer.

    McCarthy did not look like an ace until after being returned to AAA after yet another bad July stint. When leaving the White Sox after a horrible outing on July 4, the rookie right-hander had pitched 20.1 innings in the Majors, and had allowed 22 earned runs and 6 homers. The problem was clear: a two-pitch combination including an ineffective fastball and hang-prone curve. But since spending a month gaining confidence in his change up, McCarthy has become unhittable. He has given up just 17 hits in more than 30 innings, while allowing just 4 earned runs. Suddenly, White Sox fans are not only calling for Brandon's inclusion on the playoff roster, but in the cramped playoff rotation.

    Jenks will also make a difference in the playoffs, as he has become Ozzie Guillen's most reliable reliever. After the all-too-predictable regression from Dustin Hermanson, it made sense for the Sox to put their hottest reliever at the closer spot. Jenks has pitched admirably, and given fantasy players a reason to drool when thinking about him as a late round 2006 steal. Big Bobby is horrible to face for left and right-handed hitters, and his one drawback -- control -- has been better of late. In fact, since August 1, Jenks has walked just 8 in 26.1 innings.

    While the White Sox have fallen apart in the last two months, they have received unexpected support from their rookies. Since August began, this tandem has allowed a combined 11 runs in nearly 60 innings. The future has become the present on the south side.

    Cleveland Indians

    Rather than working in rookies, the 2005 season has been the year for Eric Wedge to develop the players who debuted in less exciting years for this franchise. Players like Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Jhonny Peralta have become stars under Wedge's watch, while Crisp, Martinez and Hafner have only gotten better. In fact, for the first time in years, rookies were used to plug short-term holes rather than long-term ones.

    The only rookie to gain any significant experience this season has been Fernando Cabrera. After Cleveland has such a horrible bullpen in 2004, Mark Shapiro worked diligently to improve that part of the roster. When Arthur Rhodes and Bob Wickman became re-born, Shapiro looked like a genius. A similar stroke came in adding depth by calling up Cabrera, who has been great through 12 games. Cabrera, like Jenks, might be the future closer of this team, given the acknowledged volatility of relievers, as recognized by the GM himself.

    Minnesota Twins

    If there is an American League organization that understands the value of rookies, it's the Twins. Both the organization and front office were recently built through the development of minor league players. The complete foundation of this Minnesota team was built through the farm system. However, 2005 was an off year for such a philosophy, as the Twins had few holes and fewer rookies.

    Luis Rivas' continued troubles did open up significant playing time in the infield. Both Bret Boone and Michael Cuddyer tried to fill Rivas' spot, but failed. While Cuddyer moved, the club was forced to play Terry Tiffee, who proved any hope of a career founded in 2004 to be false. Then, the team moved to Luis Rodriguez at second, and Jason Bartlett at short. But, this middle infield is not a winning combination. For a team that spends no money, a few dollars thrown at infielders during the offseason would be greatly suggested.

    What the club does not have to worry about during the winter, however, is the pitching staff. The Twins are in the process of implementing even more young players to a rotation that could stand improvement after giving out nearly 60 starts to Joe Mays and Kyle Lohse. In their spots should be Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. While the latter has not pitched well at the Major League level, he is one of the handful of players one must consider for Minor League Player of the Year.

    Baker was not the caliber prospect of Liriano, or even J.D. Durbin, but has looked good since Spring Training. He has looked better since the All-Star break, after which his MLB ERA is just 3.19. He is even more guaranteed than Liriano, as the Twins care more about success than development as they attempt to rectify their position in the game's weakest division.

    Los Angeles Angels

    Before the season, we would have figured the Angels would lean on any of their offensive prospects most heavily in 2005. With Bobby Jenks off the team, Ervin Santana returning from injury, and all other pitching prospects far from sure bets, the Angels figured to be forced to patch up pitching staff holes on the waiver wire.

    Instead, when a spot opened the red-hot Ervin Santana grabbed it, making 21 league-average starts during the season. He wasn't the best of the Angel pitchers, like other players on this list, but he gave them a start every five days when it mattered the most. Santana has also been better in 13 starts since the All-Star Break, during which he has a 3.69 ERA. Despite a WHIP of 1.40 and a lacking K/9, Santana has found success in the Major Leagues. He has much to improve upon, but will be counted on to make 30+ starts next season.

    None of the other Angel rookies were of long-term help this season. Dallas McPherson was supposed to be that player, but injuries led to a very disappointing rookie campaign. In a sense, we saw just what we expected from Dallas in his 200 at-bats. A low average (.244), especially against southpaws (.196), a lot of strikeouts (64), and rather unimpressive defense. But he also hit for very good power with the team, showing very good potential. Having McPherson slowly move from a platoon to a full-time role is probably the best idea in 2006, when he makes his second trial at a full Major League season.

    Other contributions came from Maicer Izturis and Casey Kotchman. Izturis played a lot of third base with McPherson out, which was not a good idea considering his horrible bat. Izturis also gave Cabrera quite a bit of time off at shortstop, which is where he's best suited to play. Look for a more utility-like career starting in 2006. Also look for Kotchman to get 500 at-bats, as the team saw his production from May 1 on, and benched Steve Finley in favor of Kotchman. He has responded well, showing great plate discipline and better power than he ever did in the minors.

    Oakland A's

    With this club, rookies have not come with small sample sizes. Instead, the A's have depended on them like few other teams have: to account for about 20% of the production on the team. Luckily for Billy Beane and Oakland fans, he picked four good players to hang his hat on.

    Enough cannot be said about Huston Street, and his meteoric rise to the Majors. In just a year, Street went from being one of the NCAA's most dependable closers, to becoming one of the American League's best. His stuff is completely lacking when compared to the great closers, but like Bob Wickman or Eddie Guardado, he always gets the job done. This fearless nature -- coupled with Street's .163/.220/.203 line against right-handers -- explains his success in 2005.

    Joining Street on the pitching staff is Joe Blanton, who also is making a seamless transition to the Majors. After a good-not-great season in Sacramento last season, Oakland entered the year unsure if Yabu, Cruz or Meyer presented better starting options than Blanton. False. Instead, Blanton has the best starter ERA for a pitcher who began at least 20 games, thanks in part to a 2.63 ERA since the All-Star Break. His season record, as well as his month-by-month splits, show a pitcher who has been guilty of inconsistency, a fault Blanton should look to improve upon next year.

    But Blanton's consistency issues pale in comparison to Nick Swisher, who must be considered one of the game's most hot and cold hitters. During Spring Training, there were rumors that Nick had lost his swing, which nearly cost him his job in 2005. He was even benched in May after starting the year with just 22 hits in 104 at-bats. But things improved for Swisher considerably as both the weather and A's heated up, as his June and July stats were fantastic. His .951 OPS in July was one of the best on the team, powered by the plate discipline we had seen in AAA. But alas, it appears that Swisher will close out the season with two sub-.700 OPS months. His patience has been good in both, but a .154 average in September will not cut it in a pennant race. Swisher has shown the ability to become a star in this league, but only showing up two months out of the year will eventually land him on the bench.

    Unlike Swisher, Dan Johnson did not enter the year thinking he had a job. Scott Hatteberg and Erubiel Durazo promised to have his spots, so it appeared the reigning PCL MVP would be shipped back there. But when the 1B/DH combination had problems with both injury and performance, Beane looked to his prospect that was his surest bet. And Johnson has taken off without looking back, with his only prolonged problems being this month (.205 in September). Johnson's propensity for contact, in addition to his patience and power, should make him an All-Star candidate in the coming years. To do so, however, he must be able to boost his ISO against southpaws, which was just .105 vs. LHP this year (as opposed to .264 vs. RHP).

    Are any of the players mentioned above your choice for Rookie of the Year in the American League?

    WTNYSeptember 21, 2005
    Background September Starts
    By Bryan Smith

    There is no question that baseball has become a game of September. While the drama of October, the craziness of the Winter Meetings, and the feeling of April all reaffirm our love, it is built in this month. Not only are we being treated to some of the best races in a long time, but every year the month brings some of the game's best young players to the forefront.

    Yesterday was a perfect example of this. Despite the importance of games like Cleveland-Chicago, or Philly-Atlanta, I found myself more intrigued by different games when perusing the pitching lines. Five bona fide rookie starters? It doesn't get any better than that.

    So between flipping between watching my Cubbies lose, yet again, and the White Sox almost blow another, I was treated to not-so-good performances from the day's five rookie starters. Only one of the five (the best prospect), Matt Cain, made it past the fifth inning. Only Cain managed to give up less than four runs. None managed to win. While five rookie wins probably would have created a story, today will be a review of the five young starters of Tuesday, and whether this lack of success will continue.

    The day started with Tuesday's least important game: the first game of a Tigers-Royals doubleheader between Mike Maroth and J.P. Howell. The latter was fighting to keep the Royals at 99, as the team continues to fight its inevitable tumble into the 100 win category. And despite Howell's best efforts, the Royals abstained yet again -- as they would do in the nightcap -- staying on 99 losses.

    At the start of the game, Howell reminded me of my previous thoughts on his pitching:

    ...I witnessed Howell pitch one of the more impressive 11 baserunner, five earned run performances I had ever seen. On the mound Howell is a master, as he did not throw one pitch outside of 77-88 mph at U.S. Cellular. In fact, Howell's problems began when his fastball went from 84-85 to 86-88, likely straightening out when the velocity improved.

    Howell began by striking out Curtis Granderson, and then provoking both Placido Polanco and Chris Shelton into line outs. The deception that he needs to be successful was present, especially with Granderson, whom he struck out with a good mixture of offspeed and breaking pitches. However, the second key to his game -- control -- was not there today.

    In the second inning, J.P. did the impossible, walking Pudge Rodriguez on seven pitches. He would walk two more, in addition to two wild pitches, as well as one hit batsman. Control has been an issue all season with Howell -- unconventional for a junkballing southpaw -- who has now walked 82 hitters in 163 innings spread across four levels. This is not acceptable, and it likely means that while Howell thrives on pitching with so much movement, even he does not know in which direction it's going.

    Like most pitchers in the system, the Royals madly rushed Howell to the Major League level. He has proven to be completely not ready for the Bigs, and instead is probably currently a AA-AAA tweener. Even giving Howell the same treatment as Justin Huber, an even more polished player that the Royals babied in comparison to the Longhorn, would have helped his development.

    I do believe that Howell will find success at the back end of a rotation, profiling to have a similar career pattern to Mark Redman. His pitches are heavy with movement, and his assortment makes deception fairly easy. However, this is only so effective without any semblance of control, allowing hitters to get ahead in counts and hammer Howell's mediocre fastball.

    Quite the opposite is true of Matt Cain, another rookie starter that found a little more success on Tuesday. While his problem is traditionally control as well, he throws with considerably more velocity than Howell. In fact, while Cain was only 90-94 mph on the MLB.TV gun, he appeared to be throwing much harder than that. His breaking pitches provided stark contrast and remain the proof behind Cain's 2005 PCL strikeout victory.

    Like I expected, Cain began the game off with significant control problems. Brad Wilkerson went ahead 3-0 before singling, and then Jose Vidro walked on five pitches. Cain's fastball was all over the place, but as the game went on, he calmed and only walked one more batter. What excited me most of Cain was a smooth delivery and mature moxie that translates to lots of success coming in his future.

    The broadcast also told an interesting story that the Giants first noticed Cain "on accident," while scouting one of his teammates as he was a junior. The team followed him, made him a first round draft pick, and talked him out of a commitment to Memphis. Now it is Cain doing the convincing, as he fights for a role in the 2006 rotation. I think what you'll find is that the two make a perfect fit.

    In Cain, the Giants finally bring a well-developed player to San Francisco. In the past, Brian Sabean has been quick to ditch San Francisco pitching prospects for quick band-aids at the Major League level. Ask fans in Minnesota and Chicago, and they will tell you, as both Francisco Liriano and Jerome Williams pitched yesterday as well. Cain is one of the few to slip through the cracks and actually make the Majors, and his presence will be good for public relations in convincing fans that the organization's minor league system isn't worth completely ignoring. For Cain, San Fran will be an opportunity to pitch in a spacious stadium, as he needs. Few top prospects had flyball tendencies quite as profound as Cain, as he is proving in his cup of coffee.

    Expect this match made in heaven to begin what should be a long career next April, and for Cain to be the best starter on a staff Barry Bonds hopes will give him one last hurrah.

    Sabean didn't look so stupid yesterday, as Francisco Liriano struggled against the Oakland A's in his quest to make the A.J. Pierzynski trade the worst of all-time. Expect Liriano to eventually push it into the top five, as nights like this will be few and far between in the future.

    However, not this year, as I believe the Twins have really screwed up with their handling of Liriano. The team neglected to call up their organization's hottest arm in August, during which Liriano was striking out a dozen per game, and the Twins were still in the Wild Card race. Liriano's power arm could have been a huge asset out of the bullpen, even in the Ron Villone-swingman role, rather than continuing a dominating International League streak. Instead the club continued to abuse Francisco's surgically-rebuilt left arm, deciding to keep him in the rotation, both for Rochester in August as well as Minnesota now in September.

    The time is now for the Twins to shut down Liriano, and keep an open mind about giving the youngster a rotation spot next season. I'm worried that this organization -- once so against giving Johan Santana a starting spot -- will incorrectly view Tuesday a sign of things to come, and delay his entrance into the rotation. Instead, Terry Ryan must point the finger at himself, shut down Liriano, and turn everyone's focus to February.

    Simply put, Liriano was just too hittable yesterday. It did not look like the Francisco I saw at the Futures Game, the point in time in which his tear really took off. Still, there was a smell of dominance in the air, as despite struggles in his 3.2 innings of work, Liriano managed to strike out six hitters. Few pitchers have no-hit stuff (3 good pitches, none under 85 mph) as consistently as Liriano, who even amidst a bad performance showed why he is top dog in a loaded Minnesota minor league system.

    Similar in style, if not results, to Liriano and Cain is John Maine, a pitching prospect that has seemingly forever been caught in the "will eventually become 4th/5th starter" group. The 2003 minor league strikeouts leader is finally getting his chance, and before yesterday, had been progressing in the solid manner through which he has run his career. Nothing spectacular by any means, but an ERA south of 4.00 with some good peripherals. While the YES announcers said that Maine had control issues, I didn't find that particularly evident in his Tuesday or minor league performance.

    However, I didn't find a whole lot of success either. In fact, Maine barely had time to walk people on Tuesday, what with the Yankees constantly knocking him around. The book on Maine was obvious, as the YES announcers pointed out, and the Yankees offensively philosophies quietly stated. Make this kid throw a breaking ball. His fastball has control, it has movement, it has it all, but after that, he offers very little.

    Wait until a breaking pitch comes, and do damage with it. If Maine is going to be the back-end starter that everyone has been predicting for years, he must spend this offseason working on his breaking stuff. His curveball must become more crisp, and his slider should add a little more movement to it. Otherwise, I see Maine headed in the Brad Thompson middle relief role, a far cry from his days atop Oriole prospect charts.

    Tom Gorzelanny has never been atop a prospect list. Always behind someone, he entered the year as "just another southpaw" in a Pirate system with Oliver Perez at the top and Zach Duke on the cusp. Gorzelanny had potential, but 2005 Major League aspirations? One wouldn't think so. Still, with injuries to most of the Pirate starting rotation, Gorzelanny got his first chance yesterday, walking along the path already paved by Duke and Paul Maholm.

    Unfortunately, Gorzelanny did not start off his Major League career in a similar fashion to Zach Paul. Instead, in his first start, Gorzelany drew the Astros, the Wild Card leader in a must-win situation. He drew a similar pitcher with a much better pedigree in Andy Pettite, who continued his improbable season with yet another victory yesterday. Still, there is some hope for Gorzelanny, and you can bet that he will show that in starts two and three, if the Bucs believe he has earned them.

    One, for instance, is that splitter. Will Carroll gave the pitch high praise in Monday's UTK, claiming it "the best splitter in baseball I've seen since Mike Scott." Gorzelanny did use that weapon effectively on Tuesday, garnering seven groundball outs during the game. However, his other stuff must become less hittable if he stands any chance at emerging amonst a sea of southpaws. This is, of course, the Pirates plan, but at some point, enough is enough.

    Always lost amidst the annual great races that September provides are the opportunities for dozens of cups of coffees to be handed out. Expect more on this topic in the coming weeks, but for now, let's just appreciate the best month in sports.

    WTNYSeptember 20, 2005
    First Hole to Patch
    By Bryan Smith

    This year baseball's MVP voting will be dominated by the game's traditionally most offensive position. Big surprise. For years, the first base/DH spot has been a pitcher's worst nightmare, and it is hardly a shock to see the likes of Albert Pujols, Derrek Lee and David Ortiz keeping up that notion. It has now become nothing short of an expectation that every organization should have positive production from those spots.

    That expectation will likely be responsible for a substantial forthcoming raise for Paul Konerko. The hot-and-cold White Sox slugger is the best first base has to offer from a weak winter class. This is why the time is now for the Devil Rays to trade Aubrey Huff, and the Brewers to deal Lyle Overbay. For once, demand seems to be greater than supply.

    Suddenly, huge markets in New York (the Mets), Boston and Baltimore will be on the prowl for a corner bat. This happening has organizations -- like Tampa and Milwaukee -- looking internally to find first basemen, which would allow the exit for an established name at little cost to the team's production.

    Prince Fielder is the rare prospect that will allow such a thing. Despite Overbay's .290/.380/.465ish line as a Brewer, the club's faith in Fielder paves Overbay's exit. This is a faith that has been building since Prince dominated the Midwest League as a teenager. Since then, however, Fielder hasn't quite met the high bar that has been set.

    So, we must ask, have we been overrating Prince as a product of his top ten draft status, family lineage and 2003 season? My answer: no.

    Simply put, Prince Fielder is a very streaky player. Few prospects impressed their brass during the first few weeks of camp than Fielder. All this banter created expectations for Fielder, far too high, and immediately, his play regressed. After slugging home runs in bunches during Spring Training's beginning, few players did less in the late stages to instill confidence from their managers than Fielder. A year, minimum, spent at AAA would build consistency. Or so the Brewers hoped.

    Consistency, it did not build. However, Fielder continued to be the offensive threat he was in the past this year, coming back from a horrible beginning. On May 16, Prince was hitting just .226 with a .316 slugging at Milwaukee's newest AAA affiliate. Two of his three home runs in those 38 games were among the first two, as Fielder would go on to stop hitting for extra bases. Plenty of people were concerned, and the Fielder-is-overrated chants grew louder and louder.

    However, as he constantly does, Fielder then threw us for a loop. In his 245 at-bats since May 16, Fielder has collected 80 hits, for an astounding .327 average. Forty-three of those eighty hits were of the extra-base variety, giving him an insane .706 slugging during that time. Throw in a good number of walks, and we can say Fielder ended his season in a .330/.420/.700 fashion. Trade Overbay...now.

    Few situations contrast Fielder's as dramatically as the one in Philadelphia. Where Milwaukee hosts a battle of unproven prospect versus inexpensive veteran, the Phillies have both a validated prospect (Ryan Howard) as well as a very expensive Jim Thome. While both players would likely be able to co-exist on a roster together in the AL, the current situation is problematic.

    Sure, Howard doesn't walk a ton and has some god-forsaken contact skills. However, his power is better than Thome's at this point in time, and Ryan consistently tends to produce solid batting averages. The only real issue is one of dollars and cents, as Thome's contract all-but-guaranteed a retirement as a Phillie. Ed Wade is beginning to regret that decision, however, there is little he can do about it. It is not likely that a team will pay big for Thome unless the Phillies eat considerable dollars off his contract, a move that is unlikely to see ownership make.

    So, that leaves Phillies fans hoping for one of three scenarios. First of all, retirement from Jim Thome. This is very unlikely, considering Thome's career path, and would mean that his current injury is much worse than previously thought. Second, that Ryan Howard can make bundles on the open market. Are the Red Sox willing to give up Hanley Ramirez, Jon Lester and Kevin Youkilis for Howard? Doubtfully, but it is worth shopping him around to see. In this scenario, all you need is one sucker to make it happen.

    Finally, the most likely happening is that the Phillies have to find a way to make the two co-exist. Thome will have to be understanding that like Jeff Bagwell in Houston, he is simply slowly being fazed out of the playing rotation. Conversely, Ryan Howard must be able to hit the ball with the same gusto as this year, despite possibly not playing on an everyday basis. Lots of "if"s for the Phillies, but surely, two sluggers are better than zero.

    If anything, you can bet Ryan Howard wishes he was playing for a different organization, namely the Los Angeles Angels. It is that organization that believed so much in their top first base prospect, that they benched an eight-figure, aging center fielder to give him a spot. On top of that, they also re-moved a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman to the outfield so Casey Kotchman could begin playing consistently.

    OK, ok, so maybe it wasn't all for Kotchman. Maybe Steve Finley's OPS is to blame. But really, was there a simpler solution to finding Kotchman a spot? This was a player that probably was ready in Spring Training, though his preliminary play would hardly have convinced you so. Casey's overall AAA numbers, .289/.372/.441, are all brought down significantly by a terrible beginning, notably a .198 average in the month of April.

    Unlike both Fielder and Howard, Kotchman does not profile to be a future Home Run Derby participant. While his power at the Major League level has been both greater than Fielder's and more prodigious than any of his previous minor league spots, it's likely that Casey will return to his days of having fly balls find the gap in 2006. Still, it will be hard to imagine the Angels having a problem with this, considering Kotchman's fantastic plate discipline, bat control, and contact skills.

    While good, however, not even Kotchman can match Conor Jackson in terms of contact. While Ryan Howard has struck out about 33% of the time at the Major League level, both Casey and Conor were around 10% at AAA. Jackson made it just under, striking out 32 times in 333 at-bats, likely one reason for his .354 batting average.

    Like Kotchman, if anything, the power will be Jackson's problem. He only hit eight home runs this year at the Coors Field that is Tuscon Electric Park. Instead, about 80% of Conor's extra-base hits were doubles, and scouts aren't sold that they will begin to go over the fence. Jackson also lacks the athleticism of your typical doubles-first slugger -- like Kotchman or Mark Grace -- and will not win any Gold Gloves at first.

    Still, the Diamondbacks have shown quite a bit of faith in their former first-round pick. The club moved Chad Tracy -- another first baseman that could be history this offseason -- to the outfield in July, during a pennant race, to make room for Jackson's bat in the lineup. After that experiment failed, the team continued to tout Conor as their first baseman of the future. However, the club also re-signed Tony Clark to an extension following his career season, meaning Jackson will be broken in slowly, in a way different than the rest.

    If all eligible, these four would likely be among the top five first base prospects in baseball. However, neither Howard nor Kotchman will still be on lists, leaving us with a slightly less Major League ready crowd. Here is my top five, along with projected Opening Day assignments in 2006:

    1. Prince Fielder (MIL) - ML
    2. Daric Barton (OAK) - AA
    3. Wes Bankston (TB) - AAA
    4. Justin Huber (KC) - AAA
    5. Michael Aubrey (CLE) - AA

    Of the players we did not talk about, Huber is the only one who may find a starting spot in April of 2006. Bankston's presence allows for the exit of Aubrey Huff on a long-term plan, but the big first baseman is probably not ready as of yet. Daric Barton will make Scott Hatteberg's move to the front office painless, whenever the A's deem his power refined enough for a call-up. Finally, Michael Aubrey -- once deemed a poor man's Casey Kotchman -- followed in the Angel's footsteps, losing almost an entire year to injury.

    Other players I like among the first base crop include Mark Trumbo, Joey Votto, Brian Dopirak and James Loney. All have their flaws at this time, but given a few adjustments, could make a Major League splash. And history will tell us that if they make any sort of long-term splash, if anything, it will be a result of a MVP-caliber bat.

    WTNYSeptember 14, 2005
    Cheap Awards
    By Bryan Smith

    In every sport, there are a few valuable commodities that owners find most important. In these certain situations, this commodity can take full control of the organization, pushing his weight around in every department. Because in the end, it's all a game of dollars and cents, and the owners know, superstars (sometimes even more than winning) pay the bills.

    Basketball fans can attest to the influence that players like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant have in the front office. In football, Brett Favre proved that #4 was number one by all-but forcing Javon Walker to end holdout talks and come to camp. Major League Baseball has players that also believe their numbers should dictate in organizational decision making. Barry Bonds, whose importance to the Giants has not gone unstated, is that kind of player.

    While it is way to early in the process to be putting him in that echelon, Delmon Young realizes he is en route to that category, and has already started the drama-queening. With Vince Naimoli slowly stepping away from the Tampa Bay limelight, Young saw a good time to criticize the organization that once made him the first overall draft pick. Young's threats -- one could surmise -- are simply an attempt to get through to the new ownership, and make them realize change is needed. For gosh sakes, here they have the potential savior of the franchise already counting down his days until free agency.

    Chuck Lamar is as good as gone. While GMs like Dan O'Dowd and Dave Littlefield sit on the hot seat, at this point, Lamar might as well begin packing up his belongings. With rumors of skilled rebuilder Gerry Hunsicker interested, expect the Devil Rays to make a change at some point. Then, maybe then, Delmon gets his wish, and this team stops being so cheap.

    Simply put, Young's comments should be taken as more of a call-to-attention than a direct threat. There is significant time for things to change in Tampa, and for this organization to stop being the one like destination on every limited-trade clause. In fact, given the Florida weather, state income tax policies and distance from Spring Training, one could even imagine the Devil Rays eventually becoming an attractive target. By then, Young should be a superstar, and given his current path, will be making even more outrageous demands.

    It isn't hard to find flaws in how this organization was built. Scan any stat or transaction sheet since the expansion and you'll find mistakes worthy of criticism. Kevin Stocker for Bobby Abreu. Josh Hamilton. B.J. Upton's ever-non-changing position. Nowhere in there, however, will you find the handling of Delmon Young.

    The 2005 Southern League MVP and Baseball America Player of the Year had a season he should be more than proud of. At the tender age of nineteen, and amidst huge expectations, Delmon had a fantastic run. Before leaving AA, he was damn near flawless. His contact skills were great, with a .336 average and a strikeout rate of just twenty percent. His huge power skills had produced 37 extra-base hits in 330 at-bats. He stole 25 bases, and was one of the league's best outfielders. The only remote trait worth criticizing was a walk rate (25 in 330 AB) that could have used improving.

    When moving to the International League, however, it didn't improve...it got worse. In fact, in 52 games with the Durham Bulls, Young walked just four times. While people can hope that Young can make like Jeff Francoeur and get away with it, that isn't likely. Young's .303 OBP at AAA proved he was in a little bit over his teenage head. Furthermore, his stolen base success rate dropped, and his power began to revert to being more gap than home run. Despite having the talent to keep his head over water, Young was flailing.

    There is no reason to promote Delmon Young for the month of September, following a less-than-spectacular AAA trial. He is, without doubt, close to the Majors, and will probably have a legitimate argument for a big league job out of Spring Training. However, his first exposure to this new type of lifestyle should not be destined for failure, as promoting a .303 OBP would suggest. Give Young time (yes, wait until about June of 2006) to further his discipline skills, while conveniently, waiting for that arbitration clock to begin to tick.

    Stuart Sternberg might not see it that way. The new primary owner of the Devil Rays will likely see Young as a player that must be pleased...at all costs. If true, that leaves Devil Rays fans with one option: hope Delmon's attitude is far more influenced by B.J. Upton than Elijah Dukes. If not, the height and then plight of the Los Angeles Lakers (would this example make Upton our Shaq?) becomes Tampa's best comp.

    All that, while ignoring the style from yesterday. In a more short-winded format than that from above as well as Tuesday, here is a look at the other award winners from AA on up:

    Southern League Pitcher of the Year: Ricky Nolasco - Second year in AA, really tightened things up. Has emerged as a similar pitcher to Sergio Mitre, a versatile sinker/slider guy that could be everything from an innings-eater to a ROOGY. His great year still leaves him beyond a few Cubs pitching prospect -- and at least one Jaxx (Sean Marshall) -- on the organizational ladder.

    Eastern League MVP: Mike Jacobs - Has gone onto make a name for himself at the Major League level, but only after leaving the EL in the top ten in each of the triple crown categories (1st in RBI). Jacobs has been fantastic since joining the Mets, showing the same power and better discipline than he had in Binghamton. Believe me, the club could do much worse than finding a left-handed bat to split time at first between Jacobs and Mike Piazza for 2006.

    Eastern League Pitcher of the Year: Jon Lester - Few things make me more proud, as I believed in Lester's breakout before the 2005 season more than any other player. Lester's season was fantastic, probably the best of any prospect in a now-loaded Boston system. But like last year, if you take out the first couple starts, the season looks even better. They gotta het him going earlier next year, and who knows, by midseason, he should be contributing.

    Eastern League Rookie of the Year: Chris Roberson - I'll give him this, I definitely didn't believe in him. After a good FSL season in 2004, I thought Roberson was nothing but a fluke. He now appears to be more than that, a good centerfielder with a solid mix of speed and power. His K/BB numbers must get better -- and he must continue to make himself look better than Michael Bourn and Greg Golson -- but for once, you'll hear my say that Roberson has a chance of making an impact in this organization.

    Texas League MVP: Andre Ethier - Two points for whoever saw this coming. After a nice career at Arizona State followed by a modest introduction to professional baseball, Ethier likely made himself a part of Billy Beane's plans for the future of this organization. In a sense, reminds me of current 'A' Jay Payton, who was drafted high after playing at Georgia Tech. His AA season in 1995? .345/.397/.535. Ethier's? .319/.385/.497. Payton showed better contact skills, while Ethier is more disciplined. Similar power as well as speed in the outfield should give Ethier a similar career path.

    Texas League Pitcher of the Year: Jason Hirsh - I truly believe that Hirsh was headed to be a good 2005 Rule 5 pick before he kept on just coming along. I noticed him early in the year and made a note about his upcoming Rule 5 eligibility, which should fall by the wayside after the Astros add him to the 40-man roster. Hirsh vs. Fernando Nieve makes for an interesting argument, and while Hirsh probably comes up short, it isn't by as much as you would think.

    International League MVP: Shane Victorino - Not really a prospect, but turning out to be a damn good Rule 5 pick. Victorino added a power spike to his game this year, while showing a little less speed. Still, with good contact and discipline skills, mixed with a touch of power and the ability to play the outfield, and Victorino looks destined for a fourth outfielder slot.

    International League Pitcher of the Year: Zach Duke - Like Jacobs, now famous after a great debut to the Majors. Duke's season may be in question because of a small injury and heavy workload, which should bode well for his future. In his few starts this year, Duke showed a knack for changing speeds and confusing hitters. He figures heavily in the Pirates' rebuilding plan.

    International League Rookie of the Year: Francisco Liriano - Another proud award winner of mine, because like Lester, he was a breakout selection. Liriano's fantastic year makes him one of the top five pitching prospects in the minors, and a contestant in the second-to-King Felix argument. He throws the ball with a ton of movement, and a ton of philosophy. Throwing Liriano and Johan Santana on back-to-back days will be fantastic for this organization.

    Pacific Coast League MVP: Andy Green - The Rick Short of the West. Give the park some credit and his age some credit, but admit to me, this guy should be getting some ML at-bats, no? Naysayers will point to an awful 100 at-bats last year, but overall, Green would be a good option for this team. He is good especially as a bench player, where his versatility and bat will help.

    PCL Pitcher and Rookie of the Year: Felix Hernandez - The best of the bunch, save maybe only Delmon Young. What could be said about Hernandez already has, so I just want to say this: no rookie in the last 20 years has started quite like King Felx. But like Duke, the Mariners wouldn't exactly be stupid if they shut their star right-hander out for the year.

    WTNYSeptember 13, 2005
    The Unsexy Awards
    By Bryan Smith

    Few awards in minor league baseball are more revered and respected than Baseball America's Player of the Year. Since the award began, such players as Jose Canseco, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter and Andruw Jones have won before going onto great careers. The magazine attempts to pick a winner based upon 2005 performance multiplied (unmathmatically, of course) with future value.

    What plays second fiddle in the MiLB award process is the various awards handed out by each league in the minors. Most of the time leagues hand out both MVP and Pitcher of the Year awards (sometimes Rookie of the Year, or Most Outstanding Prospect as well) to players. These players are often middle-of-the-road prospects that end up lost in rankings, nearly ignored for their great 2005 seasons.

    Over the next two days, I want to pay homage to the 23 players that won full season awards in minor league baseball, as well as trying to find their place in the prospect landscape. Today we begin with the 11 players in A-ball that won awards, and tomorrow we will finish with the AA and AAA winners.

    South Atlantic League MVP: Matt Miller

    In 2004, it was Rockie prospect Ian Stewart that victimized South Atlantic League hitters in Asheville, tearing up the league to the tune of .319/.398/.594. Ultimately the former first rounder lost out in the MVP trophy race, but the Tourists were repaid as Miller avenged Stewart's loss in 2005. A 2004 13th round draft pick, Miller was chosen from tiny Texas State University, following a huge .387/.444/.580 final season. This season Miller continued with gaudy numbers, hitting .331/.375/.575 en route to a late-season promotion to help the Cal League team in the playoffs. Miller's skill set is mostly offensive, where he mixes good contact skills (only 71 K in 508 AB) with substantial power (34 doubles, 30 home runs). Miller, as could be expected from being drafted from such a small school, is a little raw everywhere else, with a well-below average walk rate and not fantastic defense. Basically, he's very similar to Colorado's second-round pick in 2005, Daniel Carte, who was profiled well by John Sickels yesterday. Miller has a long way to go before being a good prospect, but for now, you can bet the Rockies are drooling at the possibilities of bringing that power to the Rockie mountains.

    South Atlantic League POY: Ray Liotta

    Lost in the shuffle likely because of Gio Gonzalez, Ray Liotta is more than a celebrity namesake. In fact, when it's all said and done, people might ask, "Ray Liotta the actor, or the ballplayer?" A southpaw that left Tulane for the junior college landscape, Liotta is a pitcher of the rare variety: strikeouts and groundballs. While in Kannapolis, Liotta had a K/9 over 8.00, while his GB/FB was very close to 2.00. In fact, in six of his twenty starts in the South Atlantic League, Liotta provoked more than ten groundball outs. His three-pitch arsenal held up when he moved to the Carolina League in late-July, as the southpaw had a 1.45 ERA in eight regular season starts. Liotta's mixture of control (51 BB in 165 IP) and movement (6 HR allowed) make him a can't miss prospect in a solid system...even if he's a far cry from Gio.

    South Atlantic League Most Outstanding Prospect: Hunter Pence

    Like Liotta, Pence managed to win a Sally League award without staying the entire year, also leaving the league for the Carolina League in late July. Also like Liotta, his success continued as he moved up the ladder, proving to be worthy of his promotion. Pence began the year like few other players, and it was only an injury that slowed down his torrid pace. He ended up hitting 25 homers in just 302 SAL at-bats, while also showing contact and patience skills. His huge frame and ability to play center field make Pence a very good prospect. However, he was old for his league this season, after (like Matt Miller) being drafted from a small Texas college. Expecting similar numbers in the future would be too much of the Astros, but by 2008, they could very well have a big, patient, powerful starting centerfielder on their hands. Even if he's 25.

    Midwest League MVP: Carlos Gonzales

    Similar to Miguel Montero, Carlos Gonzales was lost amidst a deep Arizona system before the 2005 season. However, his play in the Midwest League has catapulted Gonzales into the Diamondbacks' top ten, and gained respect from various Midwest League insiders and observers. Gonzales teams fantastic defensive value with solid offensive tools across the board. Not fantastic, by any means, but there are no clear weaknesses. Contact? Check, .300+ average and below 100 strikeouts in more than 500 at-bats. Patience? 48 walks in about 550 plate appearances isn't ideal, but for a 19-year-old, it's fantastic. Power? Oh yes, as his 52 extra-base hits attest. Below the top Diamondback prospects lies a great deal of B- to B+ players, such as Gonzales, Montero, Mock, Nippert, Zeringue, Carter, Owings, and others. Not a single player from that group has the upside that Gonzales gave us a taste of this season.

    Florida State League MVP: Brent Clevlen

    It was a do-or-die year for Brent Clevlen, the former second-round pick of the Detroit Tigers. With a bad year in the FSL, Clevlen would have likely been left off the Detroit 40-man roster, and would have been susceptible to being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft in December. In 2004, Clevlen was lost in the FSL, showing only a semblance of power and patience amidst some of the league's worst contact skills. One would think, "oh what a difference a year makes." However, the same rings true today, as Clevlen only moderately improved his ISO (.046 points) and ISoP (.009 points). His big year was a result of a much-improved batting average that likely can thank a .360 BABIP. Clevlen's contact skills should always prevent him from becoming a good prospect, and the volatility of his BABIP will determine how good each year goes for him. Baby steps were made in the contact department this year, but that's it. For what it's worth, I would have Clevlen third on my ballot, behind Matt Kemp and Adam Lind.

    Florida State League POY: Jordan Tata

    Undoubtedly the more deserving of the two Lakeland players, Tata had a fantastic season in the FSL. In fact -- and I bet you'll hear me say this again -- Tata had the year Garrett Mock tried to have in California. Both players mix OK strikeout numbers (134 K in 155 IP) with good groundball rates, and both are workhorses with solid control. Tata was a bit old for the FSL at 23 this season, and will face a real test when moving to Erie next season. You can bet that HR/9 rate will jump a little bit, and considering it wasn't great last year, it could even become a problem next season. Tata mixes good size with solid stuff and good pitchability, making him a good third pitching prospect behind Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya. However, he still has much to prove, and a trip to one of the minors' toughest parks next yearshould prove where Tata belongs on the prospect totem pole.

    Carolina League MVP: Leo Daigle

    It's not a sexy choice, that's for sure, but it's the right one. Despite leaving the league after just 108 games, Daigle was a presence to win the Carolina League triple crown. In his time in Winston-Salem, Daigle dominated, hitting .341/.414/.637 with 50 walks in 411 at-bats. Sure, us prospect hounds would have liked to see Kory Casto or Jarrod Saltalamacchia win the trophy, but Daigle was the deserving choice. A move to the International League proved to be WAY too much for the 25-year-old, whose OPS dropped below .600 in AAA. He's simply a worse prospect than Casey Rogowski in his own system, and will likely follow the career path of players like Joe Dillon, receiving cups of coffee only when his numbers are really gaudy.

    Carolina League POY: James Johnson

    Another player on the bubble, Johnson was a bad year away from one of two fates: the bullpen or the Rule 5 draft. He avoided both with a fantastic year in the Carolina League, one in which he had career highs in most categories. Still his ERA was worse than it was in 2004, despite improvements in nearly every peripheral. His one regression was in the walks department, in which his BB/9 went from 2.53 to 3.61. If this came at the cost of improved stuff, you can bet the Orioles are willing to let Johnson's newfound control issues develop at their own pace. I was unimpressed with Johnson's arsenal at the Futures Game, where he struggled with both his breaking stuff and velocity.

    California League ROY: Billy Butler

    Oh, what a debut! Seriously, do first years get any better than this? When the Royals selected Butler, it was viewed in Kansas City as Daniel Glass taking another shortcut with a draft day bargain. They had been down that road before. However, Butler proved that school of thought wrong this year, showing hitting skills far more advanced than your average teenager. Butler has already been moved from third base to left field, and it wouldn't surprise me if after that, he makes the move to first base. I've made the comparison before, but Butler is simply Jim Thome waiting to happen. Ignore the problems with athleticism and realize that Butler's bat will dominate the middle of the Royals lineup for as long as he's under contract. Sure, High Desert was a good place to begin his career, but this kid could hit in any field in America...just give him a bat.

    California League POY: Jared Wells

    Yuck, really? How does Wells win this award despite horrible peripherals, when Garrett Mock led the league in innings, strikeouts, and stayed in the top ten in ERA. Instead, voters went with Wells, the league leader in ERA. Earlier this season, I made the comparison between Wells and Ryan Franklin, both defense dependant pitchers that like Brent Clevlen offensively, will go up and down based on their BABIP. I guessed Wells ERA would go over 3.50 again before the end of the season, which the Padres organization prevented by promoting Wells to the Southern League. There, Wells struggled, allowing 51 hits in 43 innings while striking out just 22 en route to a 4.40 ERA in seven AA starts. Wells could build a back-of-the-rotation career much like Franklin has, but that's simply if the ball bounces his way.

    California League MVP: Brandon Wood

    Last but certainly not least, I wanted to close today with Brandon Wood. As I said earlier, the Baseball America Player of the Year award attempts to combine 2005 performance with perceived future value. Because of this, Delmon Young was able to steal the 2005 award away from Brandon Wood. In actuality, it was Wood's 100+ extra-base hit season that was worthy of award, not Young, whose chances were hurt by a midseason promotion.

    In 2003, I feverishly disagreed with Baseball America when they gave Joe Mauer the Player of the Year award. Jeremy Reed had flirted with .400 for much of the season, and Reed had clearly been the minors' best player that year. To me, he was worthy of the award in 2003. Last year, both my system and BA's system agreed upon Jeff Francis. This season we will again end in disagreement, as I believe Brandon Wood was the minor league baseball player of the year.

    Wood's future is a little murkier than Delmon's, to be sure, but his 2005 season was damn near flawless. Sure, you can attack his environment and non-perfect patience numbers, but Wood more than made up for that. Add his premium position into the mix, and out comes one of the top ten prospects in baseball. Wood has created a SS debate -- Joel Guzman, Stephen Drew, Wood -- that should go on all offseason. Finally, he has likely created debate within his own organization, where the Angels have to put up with Omar Cabrera for three more seasons.

    Few players in minor league baseball history had a season like Brandon Wood in 2005. We can't provide perspective to his numbers by using historical context, but simply put, Wood was the minors most lethal hitter in 15 years. That, my friends, is a lot more deserving than just a Cal League MVP trophy.

    WTNYSeptember 07, 2005
    A Way Off the Rockie Road
    By Bryan Smith

    On the morning of August 20, the spread was 8.5 games. With just about forty games left for each team, many would have called the difference "insurmountable." However, over a period of just two-and-a-half weeks, 15 games for one team and 16 for the other, the teams have flip-flopped in the standings. Suddenly, without notice, the Colorado Rockies are no longer the worst team in the National League.

    If only they hadn't changed the rules, maybe baseball's quietest bit of news would have made a newspaper today. In the good old days, a.k.a. two years ago, the 2006 draft's top pick would be awarded to the National League team with the worst record. It would have been the "winner" (loser?) of this race fighting for the rights of Andrew Miller. Instead, it's the Kansas City Royals who will scoop up Miller, leaving the Rockies and Pirates to battle for rights of the draft's second prospect.

    Dave Littlefield had likely been waiting for the Pirates to make such a slide to fire manager Lloyd McClendon. While I would suggest he fire himself first, the Bucs could be said to be moving in the right direction...at a snail's pace. However, it is the red-hot Rockies that previously wouldn't even be credited with heading the right way. In fact, since a playoff berth in just their third year of existence, the Rockies have been swimming in a pool of mediocrity, and barring a finish even hotter than their recent pace (11-4 since August 20), Colorado will win under 75 games for the fifth straight season.

    What was once sabermetric's holy grail, figuring how to win in Coors Field, has now been discarded as an impossibility. Dan O'Dowd has used the high altitude as a crutch, finding a way to stay atop the organization for longer than anyone with such a record deserves. If only his team could find a way to do the same, and pick a season to be on top of the divisional standings.

    If anything, this was the season. With Coors Field attendance in a slow decline, and the NL West generating worst-division-ever arguments, the Rockies could have used a big season. Instead they preached patience, again, and put one of their worst products ever on the field. In the first half, in which the Dodgers and Padres pretended to be good before fading, the Rockies had just two ten-game streaks in which they amassed a winning record.

    The second half has been a different story...kind of. With a pair of hot streaks (7/31-8/8; 8/20-now), the Rockies have shown they could sneak up on people in 2005 if the NL West has another five-under-.500 type season. Don't expect either, although if they continue to play ball like they did during those streaks, amassing 24 games in which the team had an 18-6 record, than surprises could happen.

    Unsurprisingly, much of the praise for the solid 24-game stretch (or pair of stretches) should go to Coors Field, itself. A crash course on Rockies history would undoubtedly tell that Colorado's problem has not been high altitude, but leaving the Rocky Mountains. In the 21st century the Rockies have a 259-217 record at home, good for a .544 winning percentage. However, the tide always turns when leaving Denver, as the 2005 record of 20-46 more than attests. And of course, during the 24-game stretch in question, the Rockies win percentage at home (1.000, 8-0) is substantially better than away (.625, 10-6).

    Another unsurprising fact is that in many of the wins, it has been the offense that has carried this team. Again, this is an organization that consistently ranks in the bottom twenties (or 30th) in team ERA. In eight of the games (coincidentally matching the number of home games?), the club scored eight or more runs, winning each time. However, the team also received some semblance of pitching, limiting opposing teams to three runs or less in half of the games. Their record in such a scenario? A perfect 12-0.

    So wait, not only have the Rockies been kinda-winning (10 out of 16 ain't bad!) on the road, but they also have been pitching well? What gives? Well, in the 24 games, the starters have an ERA of 3.45 (thanks, Dave). A look at the seven players that started during that time:

    		GS	IP	ERA
    Jeff	Francis	5	28	5.46
    Jamey 	Wright	4	24	6.38
    B-H	Kim	5	33.2	1.87
    Jose	Acevedo	1	6	1.50
    Aaron	Cook	5	30	1.80
    S-W	Kim	3	14.1	2.51
    Zach	Day	1	5	3.60

    Wow, wasn't expecting that! Has anyone else noticed that Byung-Hyun Kim has suddenly become one of the more hot pitchers in baseball? Certainly, he's proving to be a bargain considering his acquisition allowed the team to rid themselves of Charles Johnson and his Charles Johnson-sized contract. His namesake has also pitched well since being put into the rotation, replacing Jose Acevedo. Now it appears that Zach Day, acquired for Preston Wilson (and his Charles Johnson-sized contract), will take Jamey Wright's place in the rotation. And Jeff Francis, despite his recent struggles, will likely have a Dan O-Dowd type tenure within this rotation.

    The wild card here, it appears, is Aaron Cook. Returning from injury, Cook is just starting to catch fire and resume his old status. With yesterday's victory, Cook is 4-0 in his last seven starts, lowering his ERA from 14.54 to 3.47. The cause has been a substantial rise in his groundball outs, as he has caused at least 11 in all seven starts, and at least 14 in each of his last four. For a pitcher that lives and dies by the sinker, this is a very, very good sign. Odd arm angles and sinkerballers? Could the Rockies be onto something?

    Going forward, my suggestion to the Rockies would be to take their newfound pitching discovery to the next level. Start to teach all (most?) pitchers in the system how to throw a sinker, similar to the Toronto Blue Jays' new obsession with the cutter. Try acquiring many relievers with different arm angles, and for floundering minor league relievers, see what moving to side-arm would do. Experimentation will prove to be the key to success in this environment.

    This offseason, Dan O'Dowd should be happy he has four good starters in Francis, Cook, Byung-Hyun Kim and Zach Day. Moving Sunny Kim to the swingman spot would be a good idea, and scouring the free agent/trade markets for the next bargain-turned-Kim. The important counting and rate stats to consider? How about groundballs and G/F? Don't go overboard with another Mike Hampton-type signing with A.J. Burnett, instead asking what the A's are charging for Kirk Saarloos. Or how about taking a chance/risk on the recently-released Sidney Ponson? Not good for public relations, sure, but at this point, the only thing that can help that department is a big improvement in the win column.

    In 1995, the Rockies paid only four pitchers (Bret Saberhagen, Bill Swift, Darren Holmes, Bruce Ruffin) seven figures. Instead it was the bargain-basement signings teamed with the big offensive names that led the Rockies to their one-and-only playoff appearance. This is what the Rockies must build towards. For every Byung-Hyun Kim there must be two Ian Stewarts and Troy Tulowitzkis.

    Even if that means sometimes missing out on the #2 pick, though Dallas Buck would look really good in purple.

    WTNYAugust 31, 2005
    Rare Pitching Prospects of the AFL
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, I mentioned the Arizona Fall League to be one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in professional baseball. This is due to not only the environment in which the league is set, but also the competition that is brought forth every year. Teams usually send some of their top A+ or AA hitting talents to the AFL for further work, while not doing the same with pitching prospects.

    However, the outcry for a change in the status quo is developing. Last year Sandy Alderson and AFL president Steve Cobb began to demand that changes be made. The league's offense reached all-time highs last year, with more than half of the games resulting in combined run outputs of thirteen or more. While those involved with the AFL know it's difficult to ask organizations to risk injury, Cobb noted that only twice last year did a pitcher throw seven innings.

    Whether the pendulum is beginning to swing remains to be seen, though I will venture that this pitching crop seems to be a little better than those of year's past. Last year Huston Street was the buzz in Arizona, and the rest of the top ten in ERA were all names that will likely never make a splash at the Major League level. Expect that to change this year, depending upon what pitch counts their teams set for some of these very solid prospects.

    Presented in a bit of a different format than yesterday, here's a look at the top 15 pitching prospects of the AFL, along with a thought on what I believe they must accomplish this winter.

    1. Chad Billingsley - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

    Pretty much a different pitcher since I underrated him in my midseason prospect list. Billingsley supporters are quick to point out that what appeared to be early season struggles were in fact numbers masked by a few bad starts against Delmon Young's team, and what was then a high BABIP. However, the BABIP ship has been righted, as his current number is right around .280. This is due to an August in which Billingsley has excelled, while also having a BABIP under .150. In those 33 innings, he's allowed just 14 hits, while 'only' striking out 31 batters. However, while some of this success is surely do to luck, it's also important to note his control problems are starting to go away, with just eight free passes issued in the month of August. I'm worried that the AFL will add to a workload that is nearing uncomfortable levels, and should push him to 180 innings over seven months. While many of the minors best pitching prospects are graduating to the minors, Billingsley has an argument for being the best left under the surface. He'll look to continue that argument this winter, where he will need his newfound control to not find himself in trouble.

    2. Adam Miller - RHP/SP - Cleveland Indians

    The subject of a recent article at Baseball America, and likely the subject of concern for the Cleveland Indians. Before injury I had Miller ranked above Matt Cain, but now he's in danger of slipping, and slipping very quickly. He gets lee-way, of course, for rehabilitation time, but the AFL will be the start of evaluating his progress with no more ifs, ands and buts. Instead, Miller must see his velocity raise back to past levels, and his strikeout numbers must again prove to be a product of his fantastic stuff. When looking at Miller's numbers in the AFL, it will be much wiser to look at his K/9 and velocity readings rather than everything else. Those are what will tell us if pre-injury 'Mr. 101' ever has a chance of resurfacing.

    3. Jered Weaver - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Angels

    I'm a bit wary of this decision, not because of Jered's inning count, but rather the environment. Weaver is among the minors most prominent flyball pitchers, and unless the winter will be spent adding a cutter, he could serve quite a few home runs in Arizona. However, this is a player that needs to be challenged, and also needs to give Los Angeles an idea of what his timetable should look like. Weaver's pitchability is matched by few in the minors, and that plus his great control could make up for the flyball tendencies. While we all know that Jered can strike hitters out, the AFL will be a good test to see how he deals with adversity, and if he can limit damage despite being HR-prone.

    4. Edwin Jackson - RHP/SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

    Like Billingsley, I'm not sure I agree with the decision to send Jackson to the AFL. Has any player in this system faced more adversity than Jackson this year, who went from thinking he's have a rotation spot, to being a month away, to not getting any AAA hitters out, to being demoted to AA, to getting a chance in LA. Jackson has started to right the ship in Jacksonville, however, the environment is far more friendly for pitchers there than in Arizona. Edwin must continue to grow and keep using the advice and mechanical changes he has received in Jacksonville. He is something of a conundrum in the Los Angeles system, but a good AFL might be enough to convince the Dodgers to plan on him for yet another offseason.

    5. Greg Miller - LHP - Los Angeles Dodgers

    Well, this decision makes sense. While Billingsley and Jackson will both be carrying high workloads going into the AFL, it will be Miller who is in need of innings. He has not pitched very much since returning from injury, getting a Curt Schilling-like glimpse of the life of a reliever. Miller once had the stuff to succeed in either role, and the AFL will go a long way in determining which role that should be. Expect the Dodgers to inform Miller's manager that while Billingsley and Jackson need to be handled delicately, Miller should be thrown into the fire. At a certain point, it's time for the Dodgers to take off their gloves, and see what this kid is made of.

    6. Glen Perkins - LHP/SP - Minnesota Twins

    His path this year has been emulated by many in his draft class, as he dominated Florida State League hitters before reaching considerable challenges in the Eastern League. Perkins was neither worth leaving in high-A nor ready for AA, which is probably right where the AFL talent-level lies. Perkins stuff is average, but like Weaver, he has very solid pitchability. The Twins are stacked in the pitching department, meaning that hometown-boy Perkins will be given all the time he needs to develop. Expect Perkins to have an AFL similar to Sean Marshall's in 2004 (8:1 K/BB ratio), and begin next season back in Double-A. Glen has a future in the Twin Cities, no doubt, but unlike many of his college companions, expect that to happen sooner rather than later.

    7. Angel Guzman - RHP/SP - Chicago Cubs

    No minor league pitcher is harder to get a grasp on than Angel Guzman. We thought this would be the season for Guzman to finally make waves in Chicago, but much like many of the other Cub starters, he let the organization down. 2005 has been a lost year for Guzman's development, and the AFL is essential to his new and improved timetable. Will we see the Guzman of old when he gets to the AFL, walking few batters, while still showing fantastic stuff? Or have injuries led to a slow deterioration of the prospect that was supposed to stand aside the Priors, Zambranos, and Woods of the north side?

    8. Jason Hirsh - RHP/SP - Houston Astros

    In a system that has seen quite a few breakouts this season, Hirsh might be the biggest surprise. At midseason I was thinking Hirsh would be a good Rule 5 pick in December, but has now all-but-guaranteed himself a spot on the Astros 40-man roster. The only thing that could stop that, I think, would be an arm injury before the end of the regular season or a disastrous showing at the AFL. Expect neither from Hirsh, who is one of the older prospects on this list, even if his success is a relatively new happening. Hirsh is the real deal, and should end up a back-of-the-rotation starter with the Astros by the end of next season. His AFL performance should further that opinion.

    9. Sean Tracey - RHP/SP - Chicago White Sox

    It seems like Sean Tracey has a ceiling higher than most of the names that surround him on this list, but he can't consistently show that in the minors. I have pointed out before that Tracey is the unusually rare K+GB pitcher, although he has had some troubles consistently (there's that word, again) generating groundballs. My guess is that his problems are due to the occasional inability to keep his fastball down in the zone. However, when he does, Tracey becomes dominant, and when combining that with his inning-eater skills, is a very good prospect. The AFL will be key for Tracey to start showing the, um, consistency that has plagued him in the past.

    10. Adam Loewen - LHP - Baltimore Orioles

    Again, these are the types of pitchers that I love. Loewen has God-given talent that is off the walls, to the point that his balls have movement that parallels the best stuff in the minors. However, when he releases the pitch, seldom does Loewen know where it will end up. His career is moving at the pace of a snail, and his control problems hardly have improved this season. If he puts it all together -- like he has in a few various starts this year -- then Loewen could become one of the top handful of pitching prospects in baseball. However, that isn't likely, and we will probably see the control problems stick until the Orioles decide it's time to try his arm in a relief role. It will be there, I predict, where he will succeed (see: Ambiorix Burgos).

    11. Wade Townsend - RHP/SP - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    When the AFL begins in October, few pitchers in the league will enter with an 18-month workload less than that of Wade Townsend. Since ending his career at Rice in 2004, Townsend's professional innings have been limited to his short-season performances this year. The two-time top ten pick needs to start justifying his placement on draft boards, or at the very least, proving people wrong that thought the Devil Rays were reaching. Townsend will begin a full workload in 2005, so he must use the AFL to start re-improving the endurance/stamina that he has likely lost over time.

    12. Clint Nageotte - RHP - Seattle Mariners

    Like Greg Miller before him, Nageotte's AFL will probably say much about what his future role with the Mariners will be. If I had to guess, Nageotte's solid fastball-slider combination will see him setting-up Rafael Soriano when it's al said and done. However, the Mariners probably won't quit on the idea of Nageotte as a starter so soon, much like they won't with newly acquired Jesse Foppert. While the latter probably has the moxie to stick in the rotation, Nageotte has always struggled at the Major League level, and might be best suited for one-inning roles when he can throw the slider about 50-70% of the time. Or, maybe the Mariners are thinking that Nageotte will end up similar to Shawn Chacon, bouncing back and forth on roles depending upon the season. As always, time will tell.

    13. Travis Bowyer - RHP/RP - Minnesota Twins

    Most of the names on this list I will/have suggested a future move to the bullpen. Travis Bowyer is one that is already there, and has been now for a couple years. He's also about 15-20 good AFL innings from Minnesota opening up a relief spot for him in 2006, much in the way they handled Jesse Crain before him. However, I don't think we can expect Bowyer to have a winter like Huston Street's 2004, in which he was the most talked about player in the league. Bowyer just isn't that good of a reliever, as I mentioned after seeing him and the fastball-only repertoire at the Futures Game. But he's dominated AAA this year, so by all means should Bowyer make mincemeat of these less-advanced AFL hitters.

    14. Scott Mathieson - RHP - Philadelphia Phillies

    With Gavin Floyd in a year-long slump and Cole Hamels hurt (again), Scott Mathieson's right arm has become the focus of the Philadelphia system. After representing the organization in the Futures Game, Mathieson has continued to pitch with just-OK results. In a sense, Mathieson reminds me of a fellow AFLer that I previously doubted: Bill Murphy. Both have live arms, but lack any semblance of pitchability. Not only must his consistency of control improve, but to become an elite prospect, Mathieson must start to have games with big results. He has a chance to have a career at the back of a rotation, but given his track record of performance, middle relief is much more likely.

    15. Taylor Tankersley - LHP - Florida Marlins

    Seen as a bit of a risky pick in 2004, Tankersley has not had a great year this season, seeing struggles with Sally League hitters. It also can't help that he's watching a fellow draft pick, Jason Vargas, pitch well at the Major League level. Tankersley has showed a bit of dominance a few times this year, and like many players, just needs to add a bit of consistency to his good outings. I'm not sold on him as being a good prospect however, so his AFL will need to prove something to the prospect evaluators. If he does have a Major League career, you can bet that it will be as a sort of swingman, as it was occasionally in college.

    WTNYAugust 30, 2005
    Arizona Fall League (Offensive) Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    Few things bring out the best of minor league hitters like desert heat. While the Florida State League has long been known as a pitcher's paradise, southwestern destinations like the Texas League and (parts of) the California League greatly favor offensive players. Furthermore, during Spring Training -- oftentimes a mixed bag of Major and minor leaguers -- the Cactus League is almost always more high-powered than its Grapefruit counterpart.

    For these reasons, we have come to expect the best of minor league hitters to show itself during winter ball. More specifically, the Arizona Fall League is slowly becoming an extension of the regular season for many of the game's best hitting prospects. While organizations are becoming more wary of their best arms, limiting their innings, many times the prospects are beating on pitchers that do not match their caliber. This is why offense is the most important aspect of the AFL, and why in 2004, the Scottsdale Scorpions ended up in the championship game.

    While the pitching staff was an unsuccessful product of starters like Dustin Moseley, Jeff Housman, and Michael Burns (who?), the Scorpions were armed with the league's best offense. Two of the league's most productive home run hitters -- Conor Jackson and Jason Repko -- were in the middle of the lineup, joined by others like Rickie Weeks, Dustin Pedroia and Russ Martin. While the club was also helped by minor league vets like Jesse Gutierrez, Corey Myers and Marland Williams, the prospects made up the backbone of the roster.

    Last week, Major League Baseball released the preliminary list of the players that will be attending the AFL. As usual, the league promises to be offensive-friendly, with some of the best prospects jockeying for positions both in the lineup, and in some cases, on the field. I have since ranked the top six offensive teams in the AFL, and provided a rough look at what players the team will field on a usual basis (solid prospects and MLB players in bold).

    1. Peoria Javelinas

    C - Jeff Clement
    1B - Prince Fielder
    2B - Josh Barfield
    SS - J.J. Hardy
    3B - Ian Stewart
    LF - Corey Hart
    CF - Adam Jones
    RF - Nick Markakis
    DH - Val Majewski
    Bench: George Kottaras, Chris Iannetta, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Fahey, Tripper Johnson, Michael Johnson, Jeff Salazar

    The best way to describe the Javelinas' fantastic offensive depth is to look at their catching position. The team features three of the top eight catching prospects in the minors, when including Clement. Kottaras falls just below Clement on the depth chart, particularly do to Jeff's higher ceiling, in addition to the fact that his 2005 season was shorter. Expect Iannetta to face a good number of southpaws, as the club would be best suited to platoon the position. No matter how they slice it, however, the club will get production from the backstop that most teams in this league will envy.

    In addition to the catching position, the middle of this lineup will be filled with three of the best young players in the minors: Fielder, Stewart and Markakis. All three have significant power, and should all vie for the AFL home run title. Expect few players on this roster to take playing time away from this trio, which should be the best 3-4-5 in the AFL.

    Another loaded position on the team is at shortstop, where the team will split two players currently starting full-time in the Majors, while moving a top prospect to the outfield. J.J. Hardy will cap off his disappointing rookie campaign with a trip to the AFL, where we can only expect he continues to right his ship. Hardy proved himself consistently in the minors, and we can only expect a return to dominant numbers in November. Hardy, while being very good defensively, will not even be the Gold Glove winner on his own team, as Yuniesky Betancourt should be the best in the league. However, the AFL will be a time for Betancourt to further refine his offensive skills, as the rush treatment the Mariners gave him left little time for that.

    Moving to centerfield for Hardy on this team and Betancourt in real life is Adam Jones, who has already begun to make the transition in the Texas League. Given Jones plus speed and plus-plus arm, the move should be no problem, and we can actually expect him to be a real asset there in short time. While he must prove his 2005 to not be a fluke, Val Majewski must try not to make this year a wasted one. While Jason Kubel will sit winter ball out, Majewski will rehab in the AFL, before the Orioles determine his correct placement for 2006.

    All this has been said without mentioning Josh Barfield and Corey Hart, both who should perform above the league averages at their respective positions. The other bench players not already mentioned aren't great, although Jeff Salazar will surely find a way into about 75 at-bats. Top to bottom this team is stacked like few else, with their only holes coming about four-deep on the bench.

    2. Phoenix Desert Dogs

    C - Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    1B - Daric Barton
    2B - Elliot Johnson
    SS - Stephen Drew
    3B - Andy LaRoche
    LF - Matt Kemp
    CF - Elijah Dukes
    RF - Andre Ethier
    DH - Wes Bankston
    Bench: Kurt Suzuki, Tony Abreu, James Loney, Jonathan Schuerholz, Jarred Ball, Josh Burrus, Alex Frazier

    Not nearly as deep as the Javelinas, the defending champion Desert Dogs have an argument for being just as top heavy. Their catcher, first baseman, shortstop, third baseman, centerfielder, and designated hitter all rank among the top four at their position in the minors. This is a fantastic feat, and should lead for an offense that gets big offensive production.

    It's hard to forecast who will be the best hitter on this team, but despite the presence of Drew and LaRoche, I might lay my money on Saltalamacchia or Bankston. Both are players coming from poor offensive surroundings, and should be expected to blossom in their new surroundings. Still, Drew is the safest choice, especially now that it appears he may have a chance at starting next year in the Majors for a significant cash incentive. Will there be a more motivated player in the league than the vying-for-seven-figure Drew?

    Maybe not, but expect Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, making up the offensive corners, to try and prove naysayers that their breakout seasons were for real. Both players came from nowhere this season, but now find themselves on the radar like never before. Both the Dodgers and A's are using the AFL as help to decide whether either player should factor into the future plans of the Desert Dogs.

    The holes on this team are fairly obvious: second base and bench. Elliot Johnson should get the most starts by default, although both Tony Abreu and Jonathan Schuerholz will unspectacularly spare him. All were solid -- if flawed -- players in A-ball, but have been their weaknesses exposed since being moved to higher levels. The only two players on the bench worth talking about are Kurt Suzuki and James Loney, who will both give the current starters much needed time off.

    3. Surprise Scorpions

    C - Gabe Johnson
    1B - Justin Huber
    2B - Howie Kendrick
    SS - Brandon Wood
    3B - Travis Hanson
    LF - Billy Butler
    CF - Michael Bourn
    RF - Cody Haerther
    DH - Kendry Morales
    Bench: Matt Tupman, Ryan Budde, Wade Robinson, Josh Anderson, Charlton Jimerson

    While the Desert Dogs are back to defend their title, the Scorpions will be looking for another season atop the AFL offensive rankings. They will be helped, without a doubt, by two of my top ten prospects, Brandon Wood and Billy Butler. Both players made a mockery of the California League this season, but remain relatively untested (save Butler's sample size promotion) at higher levels. They could either continue to prove why we think so highly of them, or perform just modestly, which would of course be a product of a more difficult environment.

    Even with the doubt surrounding the team's two best prospects, the Scorpions should figure to finish in the top half of the league's run scoring. The club's second tier prospects (Huber, Kendrick, Morales) are all performing well in AA, and should have little trouble with the transition to winter ball. Huber could have a season similar to Chris Shelton's 2004, and Kendrick and Morales will simply look to continue their fantastic hot streaks. While Morales is listed at DH, expect him to steal quite a few starts from both Huber and Hanson on the corners.

    The problem with this team is depth, as Travis Hanson is just one of three suspect starters on the team. I completely guessed who will be the predominant starter at catcher, but considering the three names, don't be surprised if the club gets less production from the backstop than any other organization. The Cardinal starter besides Hanson is Cody Haerther, who should regress a little bit after a 2005 season in which he performed over his head.

    This is also a hard team to pin a starting lineup for, because in addition to the problem at backstop, I could also envision Josh Anderson and Wade Robinson stealing quite a few at-bats. Still, despite the uncertainty at a few positions, the Scorpions mix of high-ceiling blue chippers and sure-bet second tier prospects should make for quite a few trips around the bases.

    4. Peoria Saguaros

    C - Neil Walker
    1B - Brad Eldred
    2B - Brendan Harris
    SS - Robert Valido
    3B - Ryan Zimmerman
    LF - Brandon Moss
    CF - David Murphy
    RF - Ryan Sweeney
    DH - Adam Lind
    Bench: Guillermo Quiroz, Erik Kratz, Larry Broadway, Josh Fields, Ryan Roberts, Rajai Davis

    Please note that while I listed the Saguaros as the AFL's fourth-best offensive team, this is a club with the ceiling to rise to the top. None of the players are sure bets like Prince Fielder, Ian Stewart, Justin Huber or Daric Barton, but there is quite a bit of breakout potential on this team.

    Two of the players that I'm talking about, obviously, are Neil Walker and Adam Lind. I have spoken about both players before, as I expect the two to blossom in the power department going forward. Walker must use the AFL to both walk more and improve his defense however, as those two flaws will limit his ceiling moving forward. Lind will likely be the subject of more than one of my pieces this winter, as I fully expect him to begin his breakout in October. Look for the power he showed in July -- if July only -- to begin to resurface in the desert.

    Besides those two, the club does have a few sure bets for success. In 2004, Brian Dopirak followed his Midwest League home run title with seven AFL homers, good for second in the league. This year, expect another minor league lumberjack, Brad Eldred, to contend for the home run title. Sure, he might not bring much else to the table, but boy, Eldred can hit the ball a long way. Brandon Moss, Ryan Sweeney, and Ryan Zimmerman are quite the opposite: players with plus contact skills that lack great power skills. Moss is on the border of corner outfielder/AAAA player in my mind, and the AFL will go a long way in deciding which side of the fence he's on. Sweeney just hit his first home run of the season this week, and will need the winter to finally justify scouts claims from 2004. Finally, if Zimmerman is to stay at third, he must begin to show more substantial home run power than he has in the past.

    The club's other starters (Harris, Valido and Murphy) are all solid, but figure to give substantial playing time to both Ryan Roberts and Rajai Davis. However, I do believe Murphy could have a breakout AFL, and begin to show what I've suspected for awhile, that his upside is greater than that of Moss. Guillermo Quiroz is the club's most interesting bench player, one who is very similar to the player he is backing up. Quiroz must use the AFL to re-enter the Blue Jays organizational plans, for if he doesn't, the club will likely need to pursue a catcher during the winter.

    5. Mesa Solar Sox

    C - Justin Knoedler
    1B - Michael Aubrey
    2B - Eric Patterson
    SS - Tony Giarratano
    3B - Pat Osborn
    LF - Matt Murton
    CF - Curtis Granderson
    RF - Dan Ortmeier
    DH - Brandon Sing
    Bench: Javi Herrera, Ryan Hanigan, Buck Coats, Kevin Howard, Don Kelly, Joey Votto, Chris Denorfia, Brad Snyder

    I was tempted to put the Solar Sox last, but the club got a boost from having quite a bit of Major League service time on the roster. Knoedler, Giarratano, Murton and Granderson are all role players that have been in the Majors, and in the case of Murton and Granderson, have been successful. However, the two players still have things to prove, as Murton must show some semblance of power, and Granderson must show some semblance of defense.

    Both Eric Patterson and Dan Ortmeier will have prospects breathing down their necks, in the cases of Kevin Frandsen and Brad Snyder, respectively. However, expect Patterson to show the Futures Game made a mistake, while Ortmeier shows that even at his age, players can still be top prospects. Still, neither of these players figure to have jaw-dropping performances, leaving the club a little short on offense.

    If it does come, expect most of it to come from the 1B/DH position. It will be there that the club decides how best to rotate Michael Aubrey, Joey Votto and Brandon Sing. Votto will be on the Wednesday/Saturday taxi squad, likely leaving the injury-recovering Aubrey with the majority of at-bats. Unfortunately this leaves the club with yet another position in which they will receive less-than-average production in the slugging department. Do not expect that from Sing, who like Brad Eldred before him, figures to be among the more prominent sluggers in the league.

    6. Grand Canyon Rafters

    C - Mike Jacobs
    1B - Eric Duncan
    2B - Drew Meyer
    SS- Robert Andino
    3B- Matt Moses
    LF - Bronson Sardinha
    CF - Denard Span
    RF - Lastings Milledge
    DH - Kevin Mahar
    Bench: Mike Nickeas, David Parrish, Garrett Jones, Chase Lambin, Josh Wilson, Reggie Abercrombie

    Well, at least the manager will have fun playing around with the defense, huh? On this team, I think Mike Jacobs should play everyday at catcher, trying to convince the Mets not to spend there during the winter. Eric Duncan should move across the diamond to first, as he likely will not be supplanting A-Rod anytime soon. Drew Meyer should continue in his quest for a career in utility, playing a little at second, short, and in center. This will also allow Lastings Milledge to begin to get a feel for right field, as he will likely replace Mike Cameron long before he will Carlos Beltran.

    Duncan and Milledge are the two best prospects this club has to offer, and either could see their weaknesses exploited by AFL pitchers. The second tier isn't bad with Jacobs (another MVP candidate), Moses, and Span, but again, only Jacobs on that list has handled the AA transition well. In fact, Jacobs has moved up to the Majors well, and if his streak continues, should lead this league in home runs.

    Besides those mentioned there is little on this team, despite the fading hopes that Bronson Sardinha or Meyer might finally breakout. It won't happen, and in all likelihood, the Rafters will finish last in the AFL standings.

    Back tomorrow with a look at the league's crop of pitching, in addition to some predictions about top performances and a prospect ranking of the best talent on display.

    WTNYAugust 24, 2005
    Short End of the Stick?
    By Bryan Smith

    If not unprecedented, the least you can say is the Nationals recent handling of their 2005 first round pick is abstract. Or how about gutsy, odd and questionable? On Sunday, the Washington Times indicated the Nationals would consider calling up Ryan Zimmerman before September rosters expand, where he "would be used as a fill-in for both third baseman Vinny Castilla and shortstop Cristian Guzman."

    To prepare for this rigorous test, Zimmerman has spent the better part of the last two weeks playing shortstop, a position he only occasionally manned at the University of Virginia. However, rumors of this transition have been present since the Nats first targeted Zimmerman before the draft, and the move seemed to surprise few baseball insiders. However, the idea of moving from third base to shortstop is an idea seldom tested at the big league level. In fact, as Bill James wrote in his 1982 Baseball Abstract (courtesy of Rich's great series), "As a player grows older, and in certain other cases, he tends to be shifted leftward along this spectrum...But always he moves leftward, never right." Rich went on to write in his review:

    James concedes that certain young players whose position-specific skills are either undeveloped or under-utilized can move rightward but notes these shifts are always dangerous and often disastrous.

    Not only is Zimmerman -- still just 20 years of age -- moving three spots over on the spectrum, but to the most demanding position there is. The early results have not foreshadowed anything dangerous nor disastrous, especially for what the Nationals hope to be a short-term switch. Next year Zimmerman is expected to return to the hot corner, where he should continue to be mentioned as a future perennial Gold Glove winner.

    There is, in the research I conducted, just one example similar to this. In 1979, on the heels of a bad skid in late July, the Texas Rangers decided to move their Gold Glove third baseman Buddy Bell off third. On July 26, 1979, Bell started his first career game at shortstop. Ten days later -- on August 5 -- Bell began a streak in which he would start 16 games at short over the course of 22 days. With newly acquired Eric Soderholm a far better option than anything the Rangers had up the middle, Bell played 33 games from July 1 to September 22 at shortstop. The move did little to revive Texas, who had been slipping since mid-July after finding themselves fourteen games over .500.

    This is the path you should expect from the Washington Nationals. A club that swept the Cubs to open July and advance themselves to 50-31, Frank Robinson's group is just 15-19 since. Like the Rangers, a late July skid seems to be to blame for making a brash decision with their organization's best defensive talent. what's interesting is that Zimmerman profiles to be a similar player to Bell, with modest power to go along with fantastic contact skills. Don't be surprised if Ryan's career runs in a path similar to Bell, who also debuted at 20.

    If the Nationals defy the 1979 Ranger tradition and make the playoffs with Zimmerman on the roster, don't expect much. The growing trend is a good idea, as many of these teams carry at least one awful bench player (hello, Carlos Baerga), seldom does the prospect fare too well. Just ask the Minnesota Twins and Anaheim Angels, who in 2004 saw a combined 2/16 performance from prospects Jason Kubel and Dallas McPherson, respectively.

    In the end, I doubt Jim Bowden's decision will come back to stunt Zimmerman's growth. He's still a top 30 prospect in my mind, and one who will likely not see a significant stock change in the next month. However, Jim Bowden's handling of the shortstop position in the last nine months -- from handing Guzman money to moving Zimmerman -- is nearly grounds for firing itself when new ownership finally takes the helm of this organization.

    A few news and notes from around the minors:

  • Can Baseball America just give out their Player of the Year award already? I mean, really, at this point no other player in the minors is going to kick Brandon Wood off the top spot. As Kevin Goldstein notes in the newest Prospect Hot Sheet, Wood now leads the minors in RBI, "to go along his No. 1 ranking in doubles (48), homers (39), extra-base hits (91) and total bases (329)." While the California League is surely somewhat to blame for this kind of offensive onslaught, surely Wood has proven his ceiling is greater than that of any shortstop prospect in the minors, from Joel to Hanley to Drew.

    While many organizations have been rather aggressive with promotions this year, the Angels seem to have held strong to their decision to keep Wood in high-A for a whole season. It's hard to criticize a conservative move like that, but there is now little question that Wood has mastered everything the Cal League has to offer. He's the league's most feared slugger at the age of 21, playing the game's most difficult position. The Angels haven't exactly been quick to find spots for their minor leaguers recently, but if nothing else, they must find room for Wood...as early as 2007.

  • The players that will likely join Wood on the final ballot all are finding success in their new leagues. Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano and Joel Zumaya have all taken to the International League quite well, while Billy Butler has played well for a teenager in the Texas League.

    This week the Devil Rays announced they will not call up Delmon Young as one of their five September call-ups. This seems to be a silly decision, as Young is playing very well in the International League already. While the walk total threatens to hold Young back from greatness, Delmon would be much better suited to learn discipline in the Major Leagues than in Durham. And he also should be considered the favorite to win the 2006 RF job, as bringing back Damon Hollins and giving Young the B.J. Upton treatment would be an abysmal decision. It's time to throw this kid in the fire, a la King Felix, and see what kind of player/person he really is.

    As for Liriano, I think there is no excuse for the Twins having not already called up Francisco Liriano. Not only is Liriano a substantially better option for the starting rotation than at least two of their starters, he also has better stuff than half their bullpen. I mean, how is Aaron Gleeman not beating down the doors of the Metrodome on this one? Again I defer to Goldstein here, who writes, "In 79 Triple-A innings, he has over twice as many strikeouts (93) as hits allowed (43)." He is the best pitching prospect in the minors at this moment, and again the Mariners correct handling of Felix applies here as a sign of what an organization should do with a player this good.

    But don't let me be all negative, I don't have complaints about the handling of Zumaya or Butler. The Tigers will likely give Zumaya a few September starts, and it's hard to expect results much different than Jose Capellan in 2004. I think Zumaya has better secondary stuff than Capellan, but there is no question that both players need to be coached out of the current over-relience on their fastballs that they currently suffer. Butler is doing just fine in the Texas League considering his age, and expecting much more would be foolish. He's a great prospect who I still believe will have Thome's bat at the Major League level, but let's wait until 2006 to expect him to dominate Double-A.

  • By the way, is anyone else noticing a resurgence of a couple NL West right side prospects? Both Josh Barfield and James Loney saw their stocks take considerable hits in 2004, but are quietly putting together very nice 2005 seasons. Barfield has been the better of the two, hitting .313/.375/.449 in the PCL this year, with a good number of walks and fantastic baserunning numbers. Nitpicking you could criticize the high number of strikeouts, but instead I'm left to blame a combination of bad year and a tough 2004 Southern League for Barfield's past demise. He should again be considered one of the better 2B prospects in baseball, and has probably climbed back ahead of George Kottaras on prospect lists.

    Loney isn't quite back to where he once was, but he's again on the map. After a fantastic Spring Training in 2004, Loney was abysmal last season due to a few injuries (and again, the Southern League). But his second run in AA is proving to be more successful, with pretty good numbers across the board. Still his ISO is just in the .130 range, hardly an acceptable number for a first baseman. If he can finally begin to turn those doubles into homers, as was promised out of high school, James will begin earning my respect again. I will say this, however, that there is less of a difference between Casey Kotchman (one of my top 50 prospects) and Loney than you would think.

  • That's all for today, but if you want a little more of my prospect analysis, head over to Metsgeek, where Ricardo grilled me on a few of the Mets top prospects. We didn't touch on Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber, but head on over to read about the rest of the top-heavy New York system.

  • WTNYAugust 23, 2005
    Not Your Everyday Sight
    By Bryan Smith

    Despite what the numbers say, the term "everyday catcher" is not an oxymoron. It is, however, a precious commodity in the Major Leagues, where only nine catchers currently qualify for the batting title, just two of which (Varitek, Mauer) have an OPS above .800. In fact, in the ten years before 2005, only twelve catchers had two seasons with an .800 OPS. No other position has been as weak in the last decade as what many have called the most demanding position on the field.

    The minor leagues is another home for a lack of top-notch catchers, as few positions offer less at the top. Brian McCann's upcoming exit from Prospectdom leaves the minors without a true #1 catcher, and will likely not have one in my top thirty prospects. Today I want to look at the game's top ten catching prospects, and try to uncover the next players that will join the elite status of becoming an everyday catcher.

    1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (ATL) - In a sense, Saltalamacchia's season reminds me of Curtis Granderson's from 2004. While both were solid seasons overall, their rate statistics were drastically driven up by a near-unreplicable hot streak. For Jarrod it was the month of July, in which he hit .411 with a good slugging percentage to boot. Still, take the month of July out of his numbers, and his season numbers are still solid. His defense behind the plate draws conflicted reports, so that leaves us to guess average, which puts him behind Russ Martin in that regard on the totem pole. However, where Martin's power is nearly non-existent, Saltalamacchia has more to add, especially when more of his doubles turn into home runs, and he leaves a stadium that has not treated him well on the year. Brian McCann had a similar .210 ISO in his season in Myrtle Beach, where he was widely referred to as the most powerful catching prospect in the game. If his defense remains manageable, Saltalamacchia's switch-hitting bat might play better than both McCann's and Johnny Estrada's at the Major League level. Remind you of anything?

    2. Russ Martin (LA) - The default choice by many, Martin is the leader of the "solid if unspectacular" prospect brigade, where he teams with Brian Anderson. However, the latter is a far better prospect, as Martin's offensive tools lie completely in his plate discipline. Only Jeremy Hermida has a better eye among good prospects, and Russ combines his discipline skills with a solid strikeout rate. However, besides those skills, Martin is a mediocre-at-best offensive hitter. His low number of whiffs indicate good contact skills, but Martin's .358 BABIP is unsustainable, and if prorated to about .320, Martin's average drops in the .280 range. While a .280/.400/.380 catcher is solid, he does not project to be an offensive force by any means. On defense, however, is where Martin nearly laps the field. The Dodgers were extremely impressed with Martin's combination of catch-and-throw and game calling skills during Spring Training, and will surely give him a longer look next season if Dioner Navarro's struggles continue.

    3. George Kottaras (SD) - There is no clear cut choice for third, so I will go against Sam Geaney's better judgment here and go with Kottaras. Geaney, the scout-like writer at Calleaguers.com was none too keen on Kottaras, apparently a dead pull hitter from the left side. Still, I think Kottaras is better than Geaney gives him credit for, largely due to very good discipline skills. This has allowed Kottaras to take a midseason promotion in stride, and while he's not exactly raking in AA, the 22-year-old is holding his own. While his selectivity is fantastic, Kottaras has seen a substantial rise in his strikeout numbers since moving to the Southern League. But given Kottaras' past this shouldn't be a concern, but just an early stumble during the Double-A transition. Going forward Kottaras must rectify his dead-pull tendencies while continuing to mix above-average contact and power skills with good discipline. Like many of the prospects on this list, Kottaras will not be winning Gold Gloves at the Major League level, but he will do no worse than Ramon Hernandez, the man who he could eventually replace.

    4. Jeff Mathis (ANA) - It seems as though there could be 100 different articles written on whether Mathis is a legit prospect or not. His inconsistency is an annoyance at best, as few prospects have as many torrid/horrid streaks skew their numbers as Mathis. In the end, for the past two seasons anyway, it seems Mathis usually falls in the gray area between solid prospect and not-so-good. Last year was not great by any means, but Jeff was given credit for breaking down in the Texas League, a difficult environment for any catcher to show endurance. This season his numbers have been substantially better, but are a result of both a fantastic beginning and a hitter's park. Mathis' walk and strikeout numbers are not worrisome, but not strengths, nor is his defense. Of the six tools that I recognize, Mathis hovers around average in five, and of course below average in foot speed. Consistency in the power department would be enough to put Mathis in the second spot on this list, but a lack of opportunity at such an age might be enough to argue he should be seventh.

    5. Neil Walker (PIT) - Definitely a sleeper pick for this high up, I think Walker is a similar player to Saltalamacchia. Both early-round picks out of high school, their large frames give promise to future power numbers. Furthermore, both players also are not great defensively, though Walker's skills are better than Salty's, and almost surely will allow him to stay behind the dish. However, there is one great difference between Jarrod and Neil, probably a substantial enough difference to justify why Walker is not highly thought of: plate discipline. On the season the former top twelve pick has just 19 walks in 479 at-bats, a rate that will no doubt stunt any potential for growth. What will blossom well, however, is the power that the Bucs used to justify their hometown selection a year ago. Expect a few of Walker's 33 doubles to turn into home runs as he moves up the ladder and further develops his strength. I do believe that if Neil can double his walk rate -- a tough task no doubt, and one that would still not be great -- his star can shine nearly as bright as Salty's, with power that could turn out better.

    6. Miguel Montero (ARZ) - Went from hardly a blip on anybody's radar to hot-prospect-of-the-week back to forgotten slugger in the course of two months. Or more simply put, Montero was the 2005 version of Jon Zeringue, right up to the struggles at AA. But while Montero has bounced back some from an abysmal start in the Southern League, his numbers are far worse than Kottaras' in a similar sample size. And while his 1.028 OPS and Geaney Overall ranking beats the Padre, Montero can't really make much of an argument for being over Kottaras. However, the Diamondbacks are hoping that out of quanity comes quality, and one of Snyder, Hill and Montero can play a solid catcher at the Major League level. To me Montero has the look of a back-up, with very good defensive skills mixed with solid pop and decent-enough contact skills. His patience and offensive consistency should never be good enough to garner 400 at-bats, but as a six-figure bench player, Montero has significant value.

    7. Chris Iannetta (COL) - Another player that Geaney ranks ahead of Kottaras (but below Montero), Iannetta was (like Montero) one of the catchers on this list that attended the Futures Game. He did not do anything in Detroit to distinguish himself from the crowd, instead managing to do that with his Cal League numbers. His power is something second only to the Diamondback, but unlike Montero, Iannetta walks and strikes out at big paces. He profiles to walk 60 and strike out 100 times annually in the Majors, given the right number of at-bats. Like Kottaras, Iannetta is struggling in AA, but has enough polish in his game to make up for a poor batting average. Chris showed good power at North Carolina before showing a ton his junior season, and could provide big things in Colorado. However, poor contact skills and defense that is solid but not back-up worthy could yield to his downfall.

    8. Kurt Suzuki (OAK) - The last of the Cal League catchers on this list, Suzuki is the widely-recognized last of the four, and the only one yet to move onto Double-A. I should note there is a pretty substantial break between Iannetta and Suzuki, but not between Suzuki and even some members of the Honorable Mention. However, at this point, we are far beyond players that should become solid everyday catchers. Suzuki is sort of a poor man's Russ Martin, mixing fantastic discipline skills with a little bit of everything else. However, where Martin brings another significant plus to the table with his defense, Suzuki is just marginal behind the plate. Offensively he's solid, with good contact skills and average-at-best power. For some reason or another I see a bit of Wiki Gonzalez -- minus the laziness issues -- in Suzuki, which considering Wiki's lackluster career, is not exactly a compliment in Kurt's direction.

    9. Jason Jaramillo (PHI) - The first of a few college players starting in low-A ball this year, I decided to go with Jaramillo first. Probably the best thought of player coming out of school, Jaramillo has played solid despite playing in a hitter's ballpark this season. His contact skills, power, selectivity and defense all fall under average, C+/B- prospect, and should allow Jaramillo to gradually rise through the Phillie system. For every one Johnny Estrada in this group of players there are 25 that don't make it, and even more than never get consistent playing time. Jaramillo will go unnoticed for years because he just doesn't do anything wrong, both a positive and a negative for a prospect.

    10. Curtis Thigpen (TOR) - Gaining a bit more recognition than Jaramillo, because the Blue Jays decided to test Thigpen with a midseason promotion to AA, altogether skipping the Florida State League. While Jaramillo was a better prospect coming out of college, Thigpen came from the best program, where he was a part of the annual College World Series contenders, the University of Texas. Thigpen was thought to be a bat-first catcher leaving school, but that is not a good sign for a player that showed poor power in the Midwest League. His defensive skills are adequate, and if you call Suzuki a poor man's Martin, you might call Thigpen a poor man's Suzuki. Curtis might have a career as a back-up because of that batting eye and those contact skills, but any team that gives him 400+ at-bats in a season needs to go shopping.

    Honorable Mention

    Clint Sammons (ATL) and John Jaso (TB): Very different players, but they fit in the Jaramillo/Thigpen low-A college player group. Jaso is the best hitter of the four, with polished skills all around, but probably lacks the athleticism to stick behind the plate. Sammons is another solid player that has a chance to be the best of the foursome, if any of those 25 doubles start going over the fence.

    Guillermo Quiroz (TOR), Kelly Shoppach (BOS), Mike Napoli (ANA): Another good group to stick together, because these guys are the home run-or-nothing crowd. Their offensive skills are probably ranked Napoli-Shoppach-Quiroz, but their defense goes in the opposite order. All three are best suited for Jim Leyritz-type careers, where Shoppach probably has the best chance to do so. Still, I think Quiroz is the best prospect, and a good AFL could catapult him past Kurt Suzuki.

    Thoughts on the 2005 Draft Class

    I hate to rank recently drafted players on prospect lists, because short-season sample sizes never tend to tell us very much. However, I will say that Jeff Clement and Brandon Snyder are both prospects worthy of mention. Beyond that, the 2005 draft crop didn't offer too much in way of catchers, with Teagarden, Butera, and Nick Hundley a few players that will be in the 8-15 slots a year from now.

    However, Clement and Snyder are much better than that. Clement, drafted third overall in June, is beginning to rack up a decent number of at-bats in full-season ball since signing about a month ago. An offensive-first catcher with better power than even Saltalamacchia, Clement has three home runs in 64 at-bats in the Midwest League. He's very polished as a hitter, and has already walked 11 times, though like many with his resume, tends to strike out quite a bit. Going forward Clement must prove naysayers wrong behind the plate, where many believe he isn't adequate defensively. Personally, I think Jeff profiles similar to another Mariner catching draft pick, Jason Varitek, who is lauded for his handling skills, if not catch-and-throw abilities, at the ML level.

    Snyder is a bit harder to rank, simply because we do not know if his future position is behind the plate. For years I would have excluded Josh Willingham from a list like this, knowing that Willingham does not have the athleticism to play catcher in the Majors. Snyder, however, is different from this. Snyder was drafted after playing catcher and shortstop for his high school team, and has split between a few positions in short-season ball. His athleticism is not a problem, but it seems as though he has just never taken to the catching position. He is, however, a good prospect, and one that has walked in about 1/6 of his plate appearances coming out of high school. His .935 OPS is great for a teenager in the Appy League, but Snyder will have to decrease his strikeout numbers in full-season ball next season.

    At this point I think Clement probably would rank third on my list, with the caveat that he should be in the top two a year from now. Snyder probably fits in right in front of Neil Walker, because of plate discipline, but I could see an argument for his placement anywhere from 5-8.

    As you can see, the catching depth in the minors is hardly top-heavy like other positions. There are only two (three if you include Clement) catchers that I consider top 50-worthy prospects, and probably just five or six that would garner top 100 consideration. While everyday catchers do exist, don't expect the number of them to rise anytime soon.

    WTNYAugust 17, 2005
    Sample Size Pitching
    By Bryan Smith

    Any precinct of the small sample size police will tell you the same thing: pitching is easier to judge on a short-term basis than hitting. If a scout decides he must observe a hitter, it might take 3-5 games for the scout to witness enough swings to make the necessary judgment. However, with a pitcher, it only takes so many repetitions of a pitcher's delivery to develop an understanding of their velocity, control and arsenal.

    I have said this before of course, particularly dealing with the Futures Game. In a contest that allows most pitchers to throw no more than one inning, hitters are near impossible to judge. The most disciplined will make the teenage phenoms throw a ton of pitches, only swinging at one or two. The toolsiest will make pitchers beat them with their best pitch. But no matter what, seldom do we see any hitter take more than five cuts at the baseball.

    Pitching is different, however. Even in short spurts, we can get a feel for the pitcher. With just one inning, I was able to develop an understanding of Francisco Liriano:

    All hard stuff. Southpaw with a mildly clean delivery mixes in mid-to-high 90s fastball with high 80s to low 90s slider. Also has solid feel for mid 80s change. Shows best control with fastball and uses slider as strikeout pitch.

    This is, of course, the backbone philosophy of the Cape Cod League. It takes many swings for scouts to develop an understanding of hitters, but as few as one outing to do so for pitchers. Relievers like Brooks Brown and Steven Wright gained exposure this season pitching in late-inning roles, while pinch hitters or even starting position players were exempt of such analysis.

    Not only is hitting so hard to scout, but the Cape Cod League was dominated with good pitching this season. It's truly the year of the college pitcher, with five good enough to be in the top ten, and at least five more that are first round worthy. A short list of the top pitchers in the CCL:

    1. Andrew Miller (LHP) - North Carolina: Truly the best pitcher in his class, posted insane strikeout numbers with increased control. If his ceiling can be accepted as Major League ace, his basement is that of a dominant left-handed reliever. Throws two plus-plus pitches, and it's only a matter ot time before he's one of the game's best.

    2. Dallas Buck (RHP) - Oregon State: One of the game's best, Buck took a while to get acclimated to CCL life. A late joiner because of a mid-summer change to start playing baseball, Buck's first few starts were unspectacular at best. However, the player Peter Gammons once mentioned as a possible #1 overall pick got in a groove from there, ending as one of the state's best in his age group.

    3. Daniel Bard (RHP) - North Carolina: Needed a big summer, and undoubtedly fulfilled all of his agent's wishes. Bard would win the CCL Cy Young if such an award existed, and truly was the league's most consistently dominant starter all year long. Of course he'll need to show such dominance in a tough ACC schedule next year, but it looks good for a second-time Big Tener that has little else to offer.

    4. Derrick Lutz (RHP) - George Washington: The reliever of the summer, Lutz posted Craig Hansen-ish numbers. He cemented the opportunity to become George Washington's closer this year, making them a candidate for an upset or two during the season. Lutz should be the best of a deep crop of college closers, considering his summer was far better than the rest of the crop.

    5. David Huff (LHP) - UCLA : Currently enrolled in one-too-many years at UCLA, Huff should become the Friday Night pitcher for a program that has been lacking a dominant starter for years. Huff is not that, but instead a rich man's version of Abe Alvarez, the Long Beach State ace from a few years back.

    The rest of the top 13, all in order, withholding comments:

    6. Tim Lincecum (RHP) - Washington
    7. Wade Leblanc (LHP) - Alabama
    8. Brett Sinkbeil (RHP) - SW Missouri St.
    9. Jared Hughes (RHP) - Long Beach St.
    10. Brad Lincoln (LHP) - Houston
    11. Brooks Brown (RHP) - Georgia
    12. Jeff Manship (RHP) - Notre Dame
    13. Steven Wright (RHP) - Hawaii

    That's the best the current crop has to offer, with somewhere from 5-8 spots making the first round. And a good summer is all they needed, of course, because scouts needed very little else to realize what was happening around the next bend.

    WTNYAugust 15, 2005
    Not Getting Any Younger
    By Bryan Smith

    In all likelihood, the St. Louis Cardinals will enter the 2005 playoffs the favorite to win the pennant for the National League for the second straight season. This is a feat, of course, that has only been duplicated by two teams since the strike-shortened 1994 season: the 1995-1996 Atlanta Braves and most recently, the 1998-2001 New York Yankees.

    The Braves were, of course, a team that succeeded on pitching. Their 1995 club was actually below average offensively, but rode a staff with three great starters and four great relievers to a World Series win. The club was built around youngsters, as three spots in the everyday lineup, and two very important spots on the staff (starter and closer) were given to 25-and-unders. Surely the Braves would not have had nearly as good a season without Javy Lopez, Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Steve Avery and Mark Wohlers. Simply put, the Braves were a byproduct of one of the most successful scouting and development departments in the game.

    New York and St. Louis went down very different routes than Atlanta to make that first World Series appearance. Their clubs were not built in-house, but rather through savvy moves by the highest members of their front office. Money was thrown around early and often, and youth was not valued in the slightest. Production was. Only one influential player on both teams was under 25: Derek Jeter for the Yankees and Albert Pujols for the Cards.

    Going forward, the Yankees put even less emphasis on their minor league system. While the club had developed Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera, King George decided no longer would he allow significant time to be wasted on youngsters. Only once in the Bronx Bombers four-year World Series run did a youngster break into the lineup: Alfonso Soriano, who waited to do so, and only started playing at the tail end of their success. Players like Ruben Rivera and Ricky Ledee were not allowed to grow so that everyday spots could be filled with seven-figure acquisitions. Others like Mike Lowell, Nick Johnson, and D'Angelo Jimenez were traded for those Major League spare parts.

    Then, just like that, something happened. A drought previously unfathomable by the Yankee faithful happened, and New York has not won the World Series since, reaching only (gasp!) once. Worse, the club is currently behind in a fight for the playoffs, of which they currently trail the A's by 2.5 games. No playoffs? No playoffs!

    And quietly, without much warning, we have seen a psychological change in this organization. With Tony Womack struggling at second base, the club turned to Robinson Cano for help. With a rotation in shambles, it was Chien-Ming Wang and Aaron Small. When centerfield became the Yankees newest hole, they rushed Melky Cabrera to the Major League scene to use as a band-aid. And the trading deadline came and past, and no major Yankee prospect was traded.

    As for the Cardinals, they are doing just what the Yankees of 1999 did: win and win often. They might be winning in a different fashion than last year, but still, very little time has been given to young players. The club recently considered using a six-man rotation for the rest of the season, giving star prospect Anthony Reyes a spot. They even brought him up for one spot start, when he was brilliant, only to be sent back down the next day. The most substantial help from their farm system has come from the likes of late-20s veterans like John Rodriguez and Scott Seabol.

    In the end, the Cardinals might not be so lucky as the Yankees, who despite ignoring their minor league system, have given their fans those World Series appearances in addition to ten straight playoff appearances. Instead, the Cardinals might trip onto the same path that Brian Sabean currently finds himself on. After winning the 2002 NL Pennant with no dependency on youths, the Giants managed to enter the 2003 playoffs about even-money to repeat as National League champions. Instead, San Francisco lost to the Marlins in the first round, and have seen the walls come tumbling down since, finishing second in 2004 and likely fourth in 2005.

    At some point the age curve always bites down, and teams that had spent years riding the peak find themselves inexplicably on the decline. By the time they realize what a difference a few prospects could've/should've made, it's too late. It's a slippery slope to the bottom, and unlike the Yankees, the Cardinals don't have the money to buy their ways off.

    Instead of trying to emulate the Yankees spending habits, Walt Jocketty should try and turn over a new leaf, and find a new idol. Every organization should make the realization that the Red Sox apparently have given their recent system re-build: John Schuerholz is the best in the business. The Atlanta Braves do things right, and as a result, award the Turner Field faithful year in and year out.

    You can bet what has happened during the course of this season was not in Schuerholz' blueprint on April 1. You can bet Schuerholz was not planning on Jeff Francoeur seeing quite this many at-bats, and the same holds true for Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Wilson Betemit and a host of others. But he understands that in a season that lasts this long, the unpredictable always happens, and multiple back-up plans are always needed. He also trusts the men around him, especially [farm director] Dayton Moore and [scouting director] Roy Clark. These are the men that make things like Francoeur's 1.215 OPS possible.

    These things do not happen in places like New York, San Francisco, and now, St. Louis. Not at all. The Yankees and Giants are too late in realizing this, but the Cardinals still have a chance of salvaging their system, and have quietly showed a desire to do so with a strong 2005 draft. Still, the blocked Anthony Reyes and traded Daric Barton will tell you that's just one part of the equation, as properly developing and finding places for prospects are even more important than drafting them.

    Just ask the hottest rookie alive, and the most successful club in organized sports.

    A few notes around the minors...

  • Few players in the minors are as interesting to follow as B.J. Upton. The Durham Bull shortstop has struggled horrendously in the field this year, and will likely top the 50 error mark some time this month. Simply put, easy plays are a struggle for one of the most talented players in the minors. It's unexplicable. But other times, Upton is as good as anyone in the business. What an arm.

    And while we can continue to marvel at his resume, something needs to change soon. He's pushing the label, currently hitting .308/.395/.508 while trying to upstage the minors best player. The Devil Rays must, must make a decision on Upton's future this offseason. His arm and speed will make any position possible, from shortstop, to the hot corner, to second base, to any outfield spot. They just need to decide, and stick with their decision.

  • A little over a month ago, I brought Adam Lind to your attention. At the time, Lind had a .752 OPS in the Florida State League, with a slugging of just .401. Still, Lind was showing some semblance of power with 25 doubles, which I predicted would turn into home runs at some point. Currently, my favorite sleeper prospect -- and one I'll be writing about A LOT more this winter -- is hitting .323/.379/.504 in Dunedin. He has doubled his home run total in one month, while continuing to hit doubles at a huge pace. Watch out for this guy, because he has one of the five best pure bats in the minors.

  • Last Friday, Baseball America broke a story that the Major League Baseball draft is due for some substantial changes. Among them, the draft will be pushed back to the end of June and the AZL and GCL leagues will be contracted. But, in my mind, the best news would be the creation of a scouting combine between the end of the College World Series and the new draft date. Hopefully this is just the first change in a long line for the draft, which needs to be amended like nothing else in the sport. The NFL could tell anyone that a combine brings interest in the draft that few other things could, so big props to MLB for this idea. Next we just need to televise the thing, fix the supplemental pick system, and allow draft picks to be traded. Of course, more on this when the news becomes official.

    Check back Wednesday, as I review the recently completed Cape Cod League. Congrats to the Orleans Cardinals for their dominant victory to end a wild and fun summer.

  • WTNYAugust 09, 2005
    Not the Center of Attention
    By Bryan Smith

    August 3 was a newsworthy day for all three members of the Devil Rays' smallest problem.

    Let us assume for a minute -- a stretch, I know -- that Chuck Lamar has a plan. At the top we can guess is to find Delmon Young and B.J. Upton jobs for next year. If that means firing Lou at this point, you have to think that's the move that must be made. Somewhere in the plan is to find a one-year stop gap at first base, as the club is set there for the future with Wes Bankston. The plan is likely to trade Aubrey Huff, who will make some money in arbitration, for someone that could help a rotation with only two serviceable starters.

    Not many places in the plan is too much depth an issue. This is not an organization used to this, so guessing how they will handle their newfound issues in center field is a fool's game. But, as early as next February and going into 2007, Tampa's front office will be forced into picking from a trio of solid players to man the middle of Tropicana's outfield. This may have been ignorable for the last few months, while Damon Hollins and Alex Sanchez were jockeying for position, but not since last Wednesday.

    Joey Gathright was the only one of the three playing, and he made news landing a rare start, and collecting two hits en route to what would be a 7/16, four-game hit streak. Rocco Baldelli was left watching it, but credited with helping the club he hasn't played for this season nonetheless, as he was their new good luck charm. The opposite display of gamesmanship was on display in the Devil Rays' AA affiliate, Montomery, in which Elijah Dukes was serving yet another suspension for yet another run-in with an umpire.

    One is all speed, no power. Another is all tools, no polish. The last is all talent, no toughness. And all have formidable arguments for landing the full-time job in Tampa during one of the next two seasons.

    Argument A: Joey Gathright

    This is an organization that respects speed. In an age in which stolen bases are avoided, Tampa has two men that currently have swiped thirty. Still, both of these players are slower in a foot race than Gathright, who might just be the fastest baseball player alive.

    However, we know that foot speed does not make a viable centerfield option. In fact, these type of players are normally classified into two groups in the minors: either the Juan Pierre/Willy Taveras acceptable leadoff man, or the Tom Goodwin of the 21st century bench position. Gathright has been thought of as the next version of Pierre since hitting a combined .334 in 2003.

    Although Gathright was feared to be a poor man's Pierre, as his power was even worse than Juan's at the same age. This was an understandable concern, as Gathright's 208 AB debut in 2002 yielded just one extra-base hit. However, it seems as those worries have been absolved, as Joey seems to have developed power at a later age than Pierre or Taveras. Here are their extra-base hit percentages at a variety of levels:

    Lvl	JP	JG	WT
    A	5.81%	1.82%	5.52%
    AA	4.56%	3.32%	3.91%
    MLB	1.00%	4.00%	4.86%
    (with MLB meaning the player's first 50ish games)

    Pierre went on to increase that rate by more than five percentage points the next year, more than catching up with the numbers of Gathright and Taveras. I think those numbers tell me that while Joey has caught up since his days below 2%, he still should have less power than the two Major Leaguers, meaning a .100 ISO will always be a strength.

    Gathright also strikes out more than Pierre. With more balls put in play, it follows that Pierre will generally hit for a higher average than Gathright.". However, Joey has better discipline numbers, meaning he could likely match or better the OBP rates that Pierre has put up over the ages. Considering Pierre spent 2001-2004 hitting about .310/.360/.385, expecting Gathright's line to look like .290/.360/.360 over the next few seasons. Oh, and with about 50 stolen bases a season at that.

    Argument B: Rocco Baldelli

    We can project Gathright and Dukes all we want, but Baldelli is the real question mark. No one knows what will be there of the player that captured Tampa by storm in 2003. After both knee and elbow surgeries, it's impossible to guess what will become of a former Gold Glove-caliber center fielder.

    His offense is a question mark, as well. I should mention that PECOTA, the BP forecasting system, had Tommy Davis pegged as Baldelli's #2 comp before the season. Davis, for those who don't remember, was fantastic for the Dodgers in the early-60s before missing nearly a whole season, and never again playing as well as people had been guessing. We can only guess that Baldelli -- a true gamer with the MLB logo on his ankle -- can avoid the luck Davis fell victim to.

    My guess is that Baldelli takes about a season, or maybe only a half-season, to find his old offensive skills. Unfortunately, it's hard to think that Rocco will remain so skilled defensively, after suffering injuries to both his leg and arm.

    Argument C: Elijah Dukes

    Player A: .329/.391/.526 14 SB 33W/61K in 346 AB
    Player B: .289/.352/.484 15 SB 33W/65K in 353 AB

    Simply put, in this scenario, Player B is just 40 points of average from being identical to Player A. In other words, save a midseason slump, Elijah Dukes has been a spitting image of the AA version of Milton Bradley this season. Bradley's season was limited to just 350 at-bats, however, as injuries have been known to cut many seasons short for the Dodger outfielder. The Devil Rays are hoping that Dukes can become the player Bradley is, while avoiding those health issues.

    What Elijah hasn't avoided, unfortunately, are the same make-up issues that plague Bradley. The Indians were forced into trading Milton in Spring Training, after the outfielder continually embarassed the Cleveland front office. Dukes is now suspended in the Southern League for too many ejections via argument, and has even drawn blame for an attitude change that Delmon Young has undergone this season.

    We will never know if it was injuries or not, but Bradley was very slow to break into the Majors. It took three horrendous seasons before Milton came to realize his potential, and by then, he had been run out of two organizations. I have no doubt that Bradley could be special under the right scenario, it's just that we have still yet to see too much from the Expos former top prospect.

    Because of Dukes' extreme resemblance to Bradley, and Milton's slow development, I would actually advise the Devil Rays to trade Elijah. I believe his ceiling is higher than both Gathright and Baldelli, but he also could cause exponentially more headaches during his tenure in Tampa. Using his current high stock to acquire a pre-arbitration player would be intelligent, even if the Devil Rays end up kicking themselves for someone that got away down the line.

    In conclusion, I'm going to preach the Devil Rays' motto of patience in this situation. This is a problem that will likely solve itself, as six-to-eighteen more months will probably yield the best option. However, during that time, I would keep both Gathright and Baldelli, while remaining amicable to trading Dukes for the right player. If Dukes is traded and neither Gathright or Rocco are good fits, B.J. Upton will always need a new position. And you can bet that the Upton problem is a little higher on ol' Lamar's priority list.

    We hope.

    WTNYAugust 05, 2005
    The King, Cavalier and Sinkerballer
    By Bryan Smith

    Undefined ratios are thought to be unspeakable for pitchers. The kind of outing that can send a pitcher straight down to the minors, no questions asked. Or, in the case of Felix Hernandez, they can be a sign of mound dominance.

    But before he could reach that level, King Felix had to pitch his way out of a jam that could have left with the bad kind of undefined ratio...or something close to it. Instead, with the bases loaded, Felix induced Dmitri Young to ground into a double play, and then struck out Pudge Rodriguez to escape the first with just one run allowed. Because of that, and the final look of his box score, people will say that Hernandez pitched well "for a nineteen-year-old" yesterday.

    Don't buy it. It's hogwash. He pitched great for any age in his Major League debut.

    The National League Cy Young race will be a choice of two men at year's end, Roger Clemens and Chris Carpenter. While Clemens remains a statistical anamoly, we have seen Carpenter grow before us since arriving in St. Louis. Two weeks ago, Rich Lederer wrote, "More than anything, his success this year is attributable to career-high strikeout and groundball/flyball rates." Simply put, the pitcher who can give up the least percentage of flyball outs is best on track for good overall numbers.

    Yesterday, Hernandez kept that percentage at zero. His groundball-to-flyball ratio? Undefined, with ten ground ball outs and not one ball in the air. In fact, not once yesterday did Felix allow a flyball, even one that dropped for a hit. After an antsy beginning, Hernandez calmed, and dominated the Tigers the rest of the way. An avid box score reader seeing four strikeouts won't see that, but those of us that saw weak grounder after weak grounder being caused by Felix's arsenal (a 94-97 FB and two great breaking pitches) watched it happen.

    It also appears that these type of outings are sustainable, as Hernandez has also been this type of K/GB pitcher in AAA. In 88 innings, Hernandez coupled a fantastic 10.23 K/9 with a 1.67 GB/FB ratio. Those numbers are very similar to, and even better than, Matt Clement's 2004, who Rich noted held the highest groundball ratio for a strikeout pitcher last year at 1.60. At this point, a little control and an average BABIP is all Hernandez needs to become the star we have envisioned for two years.

    Well, avoiding injury is pretty important too. Hernandez was delegated to the bullpen in Tacoma for five outings this year following a battle with shoulder soreness, an injury King Felix appears to be past. Still, my worries led me to Will Carroll, who said of the 19 year old's delivery, "I have some concerns about his delivery. He seems unbalanced, doesn't use his legs well, and ends by falling to first. He has an incredible arm and sometimes, you just leave things as is and hope it doesn't backfire. I'd be reluctant to change much."

    Let's just hope nothing changes, from the delivery, to the stuff, to the outcome. Instead, in the words of Dave Cameron, "All Hail the King. Long Live the King."

    *****

    The '2005 Draft Race to the Majors' got thrown a curveball yesterday, when this appeared in the Washington Post

    The Nationals' considerable offensive slump during their month-long slide will have General Manager Jim Bowden scouring the team's farm system next week, wondering if there is any sort of solution available in the minors. One distinct possibility: First-round draft pick Ryan Zimmerman, just two months removed from his career at the University of Virginia, could be in Washington before too long.

    "My preference, from my development heart, is '06," Bowden said prior to yesterday's game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. "I really don't want to do '05. But is he on my mind every hour on the hour? Yes."

    However, the article also mentions that Rule 5 pick, Tony Blanco, is hitting .287 at AAA on a 'rehab' assignment. This will likely be the Nats' first choice to replace Vinny Castilla, who has struggled horrendously with a bum left knee. Is there a bigger contract-year player in baseball than Castilla, who will likely retire when his contract runs out after 2006?

    As far as Zimmerman, I think the club will wait until rosters expand in September, meaning he will probably tie Joey Devine and narrowly beat out Craig Hansen in the three-handed race. Zimmerman is the best prospect of the three, if you ask me, as Bowden also said, "He's one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball -- right now." That's high praise, and shows just how high Washington is on their first-rounder who is hitting .327 with a .564 slugging in his last 101 at-bats at AA. The concern? Just eight walks since coming up to the Eastern League.

    I have very high hopes for Zimmerman, and have no doubt that he would be one of my top 50 prospects (ahead of Eric Duncan and Kendry Morales...no use to speculate beyond that) if included. In Zimmerman, I see a mix between Gary Gaetti, Tim Wallach (who hit a similar .393 at a big program his last year of college) and Graig Nettles at the Major League level. Gold Gloves, a few random huge seasons, and an overall solid career. Not to mention, in Zimmerman's case...the first National true fan favorite/hero.

    *****
    [Delmon Young] on White Sox righthander Sean Tracey:

    "He's a competitor. He made me look like a fool the last time I faced him. He kept mixing it up in and out, changing speeds and it looked exactly the same out of his hand every time."

    I'm a little late on this bandwagon, as Baseball America surprised some people by ranking Tracey so high last year. Futuresox.com wrote in their midseason system review that following Bobby Jenks' promotion, Tracey might have the best stuff in the system. The numbers don't quite support that theory, however, as the big right-hander is nowhere close to striking out one hitter an inning.

    Instead, it appears that Tracey has shown his power sinker this year more than ever. He has a groundball ratio of about 1.70 this year, and has had a couple starts that would make Derek Lowe jealous. But what holds Tracey back is similar to Daniel Cabrera at the Major League level: walks. The command is not quite there yet, and while Sean has been impressive as a sinkerballer, he hasn't been particularly consistent. When looking at Tracey's season, I found this quite interesting:

    Dates	  ERA	GB/FB	K/9	BB/9
    4/1-5/6	  2.16	2.14	6.48	4.86
    5/7-6/15   5.66	0.74	7.84	3.70
    6/16-now   4.38	1.77	4.74	4.93

    What this chart tells me is that Tracey's success is hardly as dependent upon his K/9 as his groundball and walk ratios. If Tracey is effectively controlling the ball -- while keeping it low in the zone -- he will succeed. When he reverts to being a flyball pitcher, trying to throw his mid 90s fastball by people, he becomes just another ordinary hard-thrower. And if days like July 31 continue, Tracey has top-of-the-rotation potential: 7 innings, 13 ground ball outs, 10 strikeouts, 3 walks.

    Another sign of Tracey's inconcistency has been his occasional complete lapse of talent, resulting in some awful starts. If you take out three starts this year, in which Sean allowed 22 runs in just 9.2 innings, his ERA drops to the low-3.00s. Now I'm not quite sure it's fair to expect him to eliminate bad starts, but controlling them to a better degree will come with age.

    In the end, I think there is a decent chance that Tracey will become a better pitcher than McCarthy. For that to happen, however, a lot of maturation must occur at high levels. The White Sox must continue to preach control, control, control, while simultaneously keeping the ball down in the zone. If Tracey can become a strike-thrower with the power sinker, that four seamer will appear faster and faster.

    WTNYAugust 01, 2005
    Gray Area Firing
    By Bryan Smith

    From a tangible angle, Sunday was a good day for Dave Littlefield. The ever-rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates swapped a 34 year old free agent to-be for a player that finished a not-so-distant third in the 2003 Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately for Littlefield, currently in his fifth season running the Bucs, general managers are not always evaluated from a black-and-white approach. It's the speculation that could very well lead to Littlefield's firing.

    There is no doubt many Pittsburgh fans will call for the axe of their GM, who arguably entered Deadline Week with as many bargaining chip pieces as any other seller. An organization that has gone 292-373 under his tenure was in desperate need of the yield that veterans like Jose Mesa, Mark Redman, Rick White, Kip Wells, Daryle Ward and Matt Lawton could have provided. Instead, Littlefield got just one of the six, much like the Bucs on their current road trip.

    We have no way of knowing what transpired on Littlefield's cell phone in the past week, besides knowing it wasn't enough to convince him to pull the trigger. But it's hard to believe a market that paid two prospects for the likes of Ron Villone would not take a closer like Mesa. Or if Shawn Chacon of all people can net two players, there isn't anything that Redman or Wells would bring? Our educated guesses that contradict the front office may just be enough to bring an end to a legacy that has been spotty at best.

    On the trade market, Littlefield has been very up and down since taking hold of the Pirates a few weeks before the 2001 deadline. Six times has he dealt players perceived as being very good on the market, twice of which ended fantastically. First was Todd Ritchie, in the 2001-2002 offseason, when Kenny Williams tried to solve the White Sox pitching problems by trading Kip Wells and Josh Fogg. Ritchie was nowhere near as valuable for the White Sox in 2002 than either Wells or Fogg was for Pittsburgh.

    The Ritchie trade was the second of its kind, and followed Littlefield's first real disaster. Just seventeen days after Kevin McClatchy named him the general manager, Littlefield dealt the enigmatic Jason Schmidt to San Francisco. His return? None other than the still-horrible-after-steroids Armando Rios and arm problem riddled Ryan Vogelsong. Schmidt went on to put things together in San Francisco (with Barry Bonds), and led the Giants to a World Series, while the Pirates have received little-to-negative value for the package.

    If we can say those two nullified each other, Littlefield can hope for the same of his midseason 2003 trades. Again, the first of the two was bad, when the Pirates packaged both franchise player Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton together for the in-division Cubs. In return, Jim Hendry sent veteran and free-agent-to-be Jose Hernandez as well as minor leaguers Bobby Hill and Matt Bruback. Hill was a well thought of second base prospect that couldn't break Don Baylor's lineup, and Bruback a mid-grade pitching prospect. Since, Hernandez moved on quickly, Bruback didn't materialize, and Hill is only beginning to pay any sort of a dividend.

    After that, July 31 came and passed in 2003 without Littlefield letting go of Brian Giles. The star outfielder had been rumored in trades for seasons, but the peak came that July. Towards the end of that August, a team finally met Littlefield's high demands, when the Padres claimed Giles in minors. Their payment for the saber-friendly outfielder was pitching prospect Oliver Perez, recently-acquired Jason Bay and Cory Stewart. Perez had been called by Barry Bonds as one of the game's best young lefties, and Bay was in the middle of a huge season at AAA. The two quickly became integral pieces for the Pirates in 2004, and figure to do the same well into the current rebuilding plan.

    Since 2004, there have been two more trades, both with players that had been long-rumored like Giles. Kris Benson had a golden arm on Team USA as an amateur, but arm problems led to consistent underperforming. He finally was traded last July to the Mets, in an odd three-way, in which the Mets dealt Justin Huber to the Royals for Jose Bautista, so they could team him with Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson in a trade for Benson. Wigginton quickly went on Lloyd McClendon's bad side after a horrendous start with the Pirates, playing himself out of long-term plans. Peterson looks to be a player in the same mold as Bruback and Stewart, which is hardly a compliment. The prize of the deal should be Jose Bautista, maybe the third baseman of the future, but still hardly as valuable as Huber. While this doesn't look like a great deal, the jury is still out here.

    Finally, after these five, Littlefield felt it was time to step in the ring with the trade master: Billy Beane. Needing a high-OBP catcher for his rebuild, Beane quickly turned to Jason Kendall, who signed a too-costly extension with the Pirates that ownership did not like. So, Kendall was traded just for two veterans, Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. The latter was then quickly shipped off for Matt Lawton, who of course, brings us back to where we started. The Kendall deal wasn't awful either, but the inability to land one player under thirty was disappointing.

    While those are the big deals of Littlefield's tenure, they are surely not his worst. Those instances tend to always happen in the same scenario: when Littlefield tries to acquire veterans to fill Major League holes with his farm system. While it has paid off once (Randall Simon), the methodology has also backfired in very unnecessary ways. After heisting the White Sox of two good starters, Littlefield allowed Kenny Williams to salvage the offseason when he gave him Damaso Marte for Matt Guierrier.

    The next offseason, a reliever was needed, so the Pirates turned to the Expos' Matt Herges. The price? Chris Young, all 6-10 of him, who is now thriving in Texas. Finally, while it doesn't look so bad, I get the feeling in a few years we will look back negatively on Littlefield's acquisition of Benito Santiago for Leo Nunez. The Pirates pitching staff would sure look better with Marte, Young and Nunez than it does now, and would have more than allowed for some of the veterans to go.

    In both Marte and Young, Littlefield and staff drastically underestimated the talents they had. This is a problem that has happened time and again for the current player development staff. This is a staff that waived Bronson Arroyo in need of a 40-man spot, and watched him go on to pitch in the World Series for the Boston Red Sox. Or how about Duaner Sanchez, another waiver wire claimee, this time by the Dodgers, who have since inserted Sanchez into some high-leverage situations.

    They also have been pickpocketed a few times by the Rule 5 draft, when players were inexplicably left off the 40-man roster. The best example is Chris Shelton, the first player drafted by the Pirates in December of 2003. Shelton is now a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Tigers, while the Pirates found him to be about equal to the likes of J.R. House. Other players that stuck in opposing organizations after being drafted include D.J. Carrasco -- who put up one solid season in K.C. -- and Chris Spurling.

    Still, it would not be fair to evaluate Littlefield without giving him credit for where the Pirates are headed. First of all, you like to see any organization have a plan for future success. And I'm told by a Pirates source that the club has certain preferences for players, tailor-made for PNC Park. They are:

    1. Left-handed power hitters: Short porch in right field.

    2. Left-handed college pitchers: Heady pitchers that nullify opposing LH hitters.

    3. Left fielders with range: One of two stadiums in the Majors in which LF must cover more ground than CF.

    It also appears that the Pirates are sticking to this plan. In each of his last three drafts, Littlefield has spent a first round pick on a player that fits this criteria: Paul Maholm (LHP), Neil Walker (LH power), and Andrew McCutchen (speedy OF). We have also seen these preferences through other outlets, like Zach Duke and Mark Redman or Daryle Ward and Matt Lawton, and finally Jason Bay and Jody Gerut. The combination of an intelligent plan and dilligency to stick to it bode well for future success.

    As does a very good young core, which is centered around Bay and Perez. Joining Oliver in the rotation will surely be Duke, who has been fantastic so far this season. Duke has been compared to Tom Glavine on numerous occasions now, and he has shown the ability to pitch without his best stuff. Ian Snell should also be there, after impressing the organization a great deal the last two seasons. The club also hopes Duke-like southpaw Sean Burnett bounces back from surgery successfully next season. Finally, the organization also has high hopes for former high picks Maholm and Gorzelanny, both pitching well at high levels.

    On the offensive side, things look far less impressive. The middle of the infield should be Bobby Hill and Javier Guzman, both players that should boast modest OBPs in the future. The corners are looking like Brad Eldred and Jose Bautista, with the former joining Bay in the middle of the order. The club is definitely hoping Jody Gerut reverts to his old form in the outfield, where he should be with Bay and Craig Wilson. That is, if Wilson can ever stay healthy for 10 games. He will also be the first to be replaced should McCutchen rise through the system quickly.

    Still, don't expect the base to be enough for Littlefield to salvage his job much longer. Ownership has put up with a lot in the past regarding the front office, and is still waiting for its first good post-Bonds team. After Sunday, they would be foolish to think that will happen soon with the same arrangement. While we'll never the details of Littlefield's last week, enough people will be guessing the same thing, and that should lead to a forthcoming replacement.

    WTNYJuly 29, 2005
    Launchpad to the Pros
    By Bryan Smith

    The results speak for themselves. One in seven Major Leaguers played here, including one of every three collegiate draftees. Eighteen percent of all Major League hitters received their first elongated stint with a wooden bat in this league. This is, plain and simple, the stomping grounds for the Major Leaguers of tomorrow.

    Yesterday, I mentioned Matt Murton's performance in the Cape. For two seasons, he had dominated the Cape Cod League, hitting well over .300 in both seasons with a wooden bat. He won the league's home run derby with wood, catching the eye of scouts everywhere. This was all he needed to get noticed, to get drafted high. If he isn't enough proof, how about the 169 players drafted this past June that spent their summer in Massachusetts? Does anyone think the likes of Tyler Greene, Daniel Carte or Tommy Manzella would have been drafted so high without positive summer reports? No way.

    While the Cape doesn't have a monopoly on summer league baseball, it is close. The Northwoods League is a nice place for sleepers, but not often did a star play there. The same is true, even moreso in fact, for the Coastal Plain League. Team USA always hosts the best of the best, but even many of those players spent at least one season out east. Some even spurn the American national team to play with or against wooden bats, notably the two aces from North Carolina.

    Given the abandonment of aluminum, it's suffice to say that chicks wouldn't exactly dig the Cape Cod League. Teams win on the White Sox strategy -- pitching -- rather than trying to score more runs than the opponent. The league batting average is a paltry .233, and teams are scoring on average, just about 4 runs per game. Because of this, expectations aren't exactly normal for hitters, who we just hope hit like Ronnie Belliard or the 2005 version of Adrian Beltre. Conversly, a pitcher has to be Clemens-esque to really start to become noticed.

    In fact, to prove this point, I went through the 2004 Cape Cod statistics of the players drafted in last June's first five rounds. I gathered the statistics of every hitter that was there for fifty at-bats, and every pitcher who threw ten innings. Not a perfect system, but it gave me enough data to be somewhat confident (19 hitters, 16 pitchers). The average top 5 round player hit .262 in the 2004 Cape, with an ISO of just .117. He walked once every 10 at-bats or so (9.95), though walks were the one number that was more all over the board than anything else. The average was certainly helped by the likes of Daniel Carte (.308/.402/.560) and Ryan Patterson (.327/.348/.518), while hurt by Ryan Braun (.180/.293/.260) and Drew Butera (.182/.238/.212). As a general rule, I think becoming interested in hitters with a .260 batting average and .380 slugging percentage is an OK starting strategy on the Cape.

    For pitchers, it's not that easy. The sixteen pitchers totaled 527 innings at the Cape, and compiled a group ERA of 2.25. They allowed just 23 home runs (0.39 HR/9 ratio), and even at that, 10 of the 23 came from three players: Chris Nicoll (3), Mike Billek (3) and James Avery (4). The group had fantastic peripherals, striking out 10.45 per nine innings, allowing just a 6.59 H/9, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.20. Wow. These numbers were certainly helped by relievers Craig Hansen (0.00 ERA, 41/2 K/BB in 22.1 IP) and Kevin Whelan (1 ER, 9 H, 31 K in 21.2 IP), who were amazing. The group ERA drops to 1.78 if you eliminate the last three players drafted: Avery, Zack Kroenke and Brett Harker.

    Using those numbers as a base, I set out to find some of the better players at the Cape this season. It seems like -- even across the entire collegiate landscape -- pitching rules more than ever, as I noticed there wasn't exactly a ton of great hitting prospects. With the Cape All-Star Game on the horizon, now is as good a time as ever to check on the league's top players. There might be others, but here are five hitters, nine pitchers, and one two-way player that have caught my eye so far.

    Daniel Bard (RHP - UNC): In the Baseball Prospectus article I wrote about the five top 2006 college pitchers, I wrote this of Daniel Bard:

    If there is a consensus about the first four players on this list, there isn't with Daniel Bard. Despite playing in a pitchers' park with the easiest schedule of the five, Bard had by far the worst season of the group. Everyone blows him away in terms of ERA, and only the sinkerballer (Buck) and wild thing (Miller) are close in K/9 and BB/9, respectively. Still, what keeps Bard on this list is his stuff and the promise from his freshman season. It's still possible that Bard puts it all together and has a great junior season, catapulting himself into a guaranteed top ten.

    Well, he's certainly in the midst of being catapulted. Bard has been one of the Cape's best pitchers this season, and has the honor of starting the All-Star Game. The right-hander has 62 strikeouts in 49 innings, with just 38 hits and 16 walks allowed, and a 1.47 ERA. Next season is the big test for Bard, but if you're a betting person, take Bard in the top ten.

    Aaron Bates (C/1B - NC St.): In the future I will write about Team USA, where Matt LaPorta is proving to be the most dangerous hitter in America. If that's true, Bates has a chance at one of the top spots behind the Florida first baseman. The two are actually similar players, as they are ex-catchers that have no business behind the plate anymore. But Bates' career has been longer than LaPorta's, as he was a transfer to the Pack from San Jose State. After dominating there, Bates had an amazing 2005 in which his .425 batting average yielded just an eighth round draft pick. My guess is Bates will ened up with a similar draft history to Jeff Larish, ending up in the 3-5 rounds next June. Considering his well-rounded offensive talents, I'd sure take him in the third.

    Dallas Buck (RHP - Or. St.): Someone had to have made the right calls for Buck to make the All-Star Game, that's for sure. While Buck comes to the Cape with quite the resume, his early results on the 2005 summer are not so good: 4.91 ERA in 25.2 innings. That's bound to go down, though, as all of Buck's peripherals are sound: 21 hits, 30 strikeouts, 5 walks. After turning down Team USA, Buck was ready to sit the summer out, before making a last minute decision to join Falmouth a bit late. His stock couldn't have been any higher after the CWS, so I wondered if sitting out was a good move, especially considering the workload he endured during his junior season. One to watch in the Cape's second half.

    Chris Coghlan (3B - Miss): The Chase Headly of 2005, maybe. Coghlan has manned the hot corner well for the Rebels for the last two seasons, named to the All-SEC Freshman team following his first season. He's a very disciplined hitter that has posted OBPs of .379 and .430 in his first two years at Ole Miss. This year in the Cape, Coghlan is hitting .333/.414/.406 with 12 walks and 11 strikeouts in 96 at-bats. And that perfectly shows Coghlan's skillset, as he is a very selective, and still is a good contact hitter. What he lacks, however, is power, as Coghlan has yet to show anything more than doubles power.

    Chris Errecart (1B/OF - Cal): Entering the Cape League, I would guess Errecart came with the least fanfare. After two unspectacular seasons at Cal, Errecart entered the League with a rep as a poor defensive player with little discipline and just projectable power. But, Errecart has proven to be a well-rounded hitter this summer, with a SLG that rivals only a man a couple spots down for tops in the league. His patience is much improved from his first two seasons at Cal, and needs to stay at the current walk per ten at-bats pace. Errecart also must prove he can hack it in left field, a position far more forgiving for his offensive faults than first. 2006 is a big year for Errecart, who I think could be a sleeper next June.

    Mark Hamilton (OF - Tulane): One of the league's better prospects, in my opinion. As a member of the top-ranked Green Wave this year, Hamilton was shadowed by the likes of Bogusevic, Owings and Manzella. Expect that to change in 2006, when Hamilton should emerge as the best player on one of the nation's best programs. His power has been intriguing since his Perfect Game days, and his .209 ISO at the Cape is fantastic. He's patient and powerful, and on the verge of a huge junior season.

    Jared Hughes (RHP - LBSU): The surprise of the Cape so far, Hughes might actually win the 'Cy Young' if it existed. A transfer to Long Beach State from Santa Clara, Hughes has positioned himself to take the Dirtbags' Friday Night role next season. This is a good spot to have, as the last three are all well regarded prospects: Cesar Ramos, Jered Weaver and Abe Alvarez. Hughes was a very good high school pitching prospect that started to decline a bit his senior season. Could this be the revival? Well, it's too early to tell, but reports back are very solid. His fastball has been 89-92 mph, and while the control isn't apparently as good as the numbers say, it's hard to argue with 9 walks in 41 innings. My guess is that Hughes will turn out to be a far better prospect than we would have guessed in June, but a bit worse than some will forecast in August.

    David Huff (LHP - UCLA): Has had a whirlwind of a college career, and will attend his third school in three years next season. After a 3rd team All State mention as a high school senior, Huff's college career began with a 3.00 ERA in more than 30 appearances for Pepperdine University. Last summer was his first year in the Cape, and Huff was brilliant, finishing fourth on the ERA leaderboard. He then transferred to Cypress Junior College for his sophomore season, likely so he could enter the draft this year. Rumors of an arm injury and a commitment to UCLA allowed Huff to slide to the Phillies in the 19th round, cementing a third collegiate season. He changes speeds fantastically with three good pitches, has great control, and is poised to finish high in the league leaders for ERA yet again.

    Wade Leblanc (LHP - Bama): The Alabama website is not shy. "LeBlanc posted the most unbelievable freshman season in the history of Alabama baseball." Or how about this: "It would be easier to name the award Wade LeBlanc did not win during his remarkable freshman season with the Alabama Crimson Tide." They don't sugarcoat it, do they? But the site is correct, as Leblanc's freshman season was amazing en route to a National Freshman of the Year award. But reality struck hard in 2005, when Leblanc's ERA went from 2.08 to 4.37. Leblanc is finding the magic again at the Cape, where he has a 2.06 ERA and a K/9 back over the 9.00 mark. A crafty lefty with 3 solid pitches, Leblanc will likely interest the same people that Cesar Ramos did this past June.

    Tim Lincecum (RHP - Wash): Like Bates, Lincecum was draft-eligible as a sophomore this past season. His stock fell late due to a multitude of reasons, likely very disheartening to a player some felt would end up in the first two rounds before his year began. Lincecum's stuff is unparalleled at this level, with a fantastic fastball-curveball combination. But, there are three factors that are plaguing Lincecum's stock: a hugely overworked sophomore season, a motion that pains the eyes, and some control issues. Still, if he continues to pitch at this rate -- 0.79 ERA, 58 K in 34 IP -- he'll enter the early round argument yet again.

    Brad Lincoln (UT - Houston): Our lone two-way player on this list, Lincoln has been very good with his glove and arm so far. At the plate, Lincoln is hitting .275/.388/.538 while splitting time between first base, the outfield, and the designated hitter spot. He strikes out too much, but walks a lot and has plus power. On the mound, he's been very good as well, with a 1.58 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. He had the better season at the plate his sophomore year, though his 106/25 strikeout-to-walk ratio shows a lot of potential. My guess at this point is that Lincoln will end up a pitcher in the John Van Benschoten and Micah Owings mold. And that is one hell of a compliment.

    Evan Longoria (IF - LBSU): Along with teammate Hughes, the surprise of the Cape. Longoria played third base for the Dirtbags in 2005, but was out of position, simply manning the hot corner while Troy Tulowitzki finished his college career. At heart, Longoria is a shortstop, and will play that role in Long Beach in 2006. If he shows a sliver of the power he has with a wooden bat, expect the Dirtbags to not even know Tulowitzki left. Still, I think Longoria is bound to be a little overrated. His power has never been more than the gap variety before, so remain skeptical until further notice. He also doesn't walk very much, though his contact skills grade out very well. The question will be one of position, as many feel Evan's future may be at second base. He has made himself noticed, that's for sure.

    Derrik Lutz (RHP - Geo. Wash): The 2006 first round college closer, maybe? Above, I mentioned Craig Hansen's fantastic Cape statistics from 2004. Lutz is trying to impersonate Hansen -- a fellow small program pitcher -- this year with the Chatham A's. Leading the league in saves, Lutz has used his big fastball extremely well. Lutz has yet to allow an earned run in 21.1 innings of work, striking out 34 batters. Even more impressively, the right-hander has walked just three while giving up 11 hits. A closer as a Freshman and an ace as a sophomore, Lutz will have to decide between himself and his team next year. The former would be to return to the bullpen, while his team would likely prefer he remain the Friday Night pitcher. We will see.

    Andrew Miller (LHP - UNC): Although Hughes is starting the All-Star game, he's not even the best pitcher on his own team. That honor goes to Andrew Miller, who I shouldn't have to say is one of my favorite college players out there. In fact, if the 2006 draft were held tomorrow, I would choose Miller first without even blinking. He has been as dominant as expected so far in the Cape, with an ERA of 1.93 in 42 innings of work. Still, improvements must be made on control, as he has allowed 19 walks to go with his 20 hits (!) and 56 strikeouts. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Miller (barring injury) will be a dominant reliever if things turn out badly for him.

    Brett Sinkbeil (RHP - SWMS): Like Bard and Leblanc before him, Sinkbeil is another sophomore slumper. His freshman season, the right-hander won the Missouri Valley Conference Freshman of the Year honors, after posting a 3.00 ERA and 9.00 K/9. He was set to save a program that has been out of the limelight for a few seasons. But this year Sinkbeil was just OK, as his ERA worsened to 4.84 due to hittability: 95 in 87.1 (nine of which were HR). But he struck out 97 batters, so all was not lost. Sinkbeil continues to pitch well, though his ERA continues to be higher than his peripherals suggest. In 47 innings, Brett has allowed 39 hits and just 6 walks while striking out 53 batters. In his junior season, Sinkbeil must convince scouts that he won't be hit hard at the professional level to be taken seriously.

    I'll close with ten players that just missed the list. At some point this weekend, I'll try to update what happened in the Cape Cod League derby and All-Star Game. The honorable mention, in no particular order:

    Jason Donald (SS -- Zona): .302/.371/.381
    Lance Salsgiver (CF -- Harvard): .323/.357/.376
    Chris Toneguzzi (RHP -- Purdue): 2.18 14/20.2 27/3
    Jordan Abruzzo (C -- San Diego): .270/.323/.391
    Brandon Morrow (RHP -- Cal): 1.50 11/12 21/6
    P.J. Walters (SP -- S. Alabama): 2.30 36/43 45/15
    Tim Norton (RHP -- UConn): 2.06 27/48 62/13
    Baron Frost (OF -- USC): .375/.445/.471
    Jeff Kindel (OF/DH -- GTech): .314/.410/.438
    Steven Wright (RP -- Hawaii): 0.95 11/19 27/8

    WTNYJuly 28, 2005
    A Tale of Three .400 Hitters
    By Bryan Smith

    First rounders come in all shapes and sizes, from all different backgrounds, garnering all different types of expectations. In the end, though, all scouting directors are just dreaming of sample sizes like this. Five to fifteen game spurts in which the player is immune to the hardships of the Major League transition, and tantalize us with their potential. For that period, we see what the scouts once envisioned, and believed in enough to spend six/seven figure bonuses on.

    These three players embody that thought process. Three outfielders with vastly different histories -- save their first round draft selections -- including radically different pro careers. Now they are brought together as three of the game's hottest players, following call-ups when expectations rivaled zero. Out to prove us wrong? Or their scouting directors right? Well, good job:

    	AB	AVE	W	XBH
    A	30	0.433	0	6
    B	27	0.481	5	2
    C	15	0.467	1	1

    Oh, how offseason negligence creates needs. John Scheurholz spent a winter forgetting about his outfield corner spots, deciding at the last minute to go with Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi. After that time bomb went off, Scheurholz turned to Kelly Johnson and Ryan Langerhans. With the rest of the roster in flux, and the Braves entire minor league system in the Majors, the organization decided to bring up Jeff Francoeur. Thirteen hits later, Langerhans is suddenly jobless.

    Jim Hendry also saw both of his outfield corners open up last Christmas, when Sammy Sosa was dealt to Baltimore, and Moises Alou became a free agent. The Cubs decided that, rather than re-sign the aging Alou, the money would be better spent in other places. Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois could fill the position fine, right? On second thought, in need of making a statement a couple weeks ago, Hendry sent down the struggling Dubois and found another right-handed left fielder. Since then, Matt Murton has had two different games in which he reached base four times.

    The Royals knew this season was going to result in failure. Even the Opening Day product forecasted a last place finish, when Jose Lima got beaten to death, and newfound left fielder Terence Long went 0-for-4. Long hasn't been horrific this season, but certainly isn't the answer to one of the club's corner spots, both of which he's spent time in. Allard Baird sensed a chance to find new blood when Mark Bellhorn got hurt in Boston, sending spare-part Tony Graffanino to the world champs for Chip Ambres. And like that, Baird may have stumbled onto a fan favorite.

    I would certainly be lying if I told you these numbers do not surprise me. But given the small amount of plate appearances -- combined with considerable talent -- it also isn't unforeseen. What surprised me most about the trio is just how different each player's path has been to their current success. As if Roger clemens isn't already teaching us, now is just another example of how just about anything can happen in the game of baseball.

    Pre-Draft

    Of the three players, it isn't surprising that Murton had the most documented pre-pro past. The Cub is the only of the trio to attend college, playing baseball at Georgia Tech following a solid high school campaign. Murton's star began to shine in the Cape Cod League in 2001, when the Yellow Jacket hit .324 with 9 XBH and 18 walks in 145 at-bats following his Freshman season. The next year at the Cape, Murton hit .400 with seven walks and extra-base hits in just 55 at-bats. And while just one of those XBH were homers, Murton showed future power winning the league's home run derby.

    He followed that up with a .344/.434/.536 final season at GTech, one where Murton also stole 20 bases and walked 36 times in 250 at-bats. The Red Sox drafted Murton 32nd that June, in between Adam Miller and Omar Quintanilla.

    It should be said that while Murton's environment certainly trumps that of the two high school stars, both Ambres and Francoeur were very solid players, from solid programs. Ambres was a five-tool talent from Texas, while Francoeur a two-sport star from one of Georgia's best programs. Francoeur was seen as somewhat of a hard sign, as he had already committed to playing football at Clemson. In the end both players were drafted and signed, to the Marlins and Braves respectively.

    If all of these players were in the same draft, I would have ranked them in the order of Francoeur, Murton and Ambres, with Murton very close to the top.

    Short-Season Baseball

    Many organizations believe in sending high school drafted players to short-season ball the year following their selection. The Cubs, for one, are promoters of this ideology, waiting an extra year to expose high draft choices Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey to full season ball. While this did not happen to neither Francoeur nor Ambres, the collegiate athlete was given the conservative treatment.

    Instead, both high school players were assigned to short-season ball immediately after being signed, playing there for the rest of that season. For Ambres, his time was split evenly between the Gulf COast League and New York Penn League, neither of which posed a problem. Ambres hit .353/.453/.511 before his promotion, and .267/.392/.552 after it. All in all, the Marlin also walked 46 times, struck out just 44 times, and stole 33 bases in 40 attempts in only 244 at-bats.
    Francoeur did exactly what his seven figure bonus commanded: success. In 147 at-bats in the Appy League, Francoeur dominated, hitting .327/.395/.585. People that were worried about how raw he was were calmed, as Francoeur also walked 15 times in 147 at-bats. He was the entire package.

    Again, Murton was the surprising player of the trio at this level. Not only did he spend his entire 2003 season in the NYPL, but he also was unspectacular at the level. Murton hit *just* .286/.374/.397 following a highly praised career at a top college program. His power was non-existent, and only his 27/39 walk-to-strikeout ratio was approved of.

    At this point, Murton fell to last, and Francoeur would edge out Ambres for the top spot, mostly because of pre-draft notions. It would have been close though, rivaling another argument with a different top Marlin draft pick and Francoeur.

    Low-A

    Boston became more aggressive with Murton after his lackluster 2003 season, trying to figure out what kind of player they had drafted. With that in mind, the club had Murton skip the South Atlantic League entirely. We won't see him again until the Florida State League.

    If Murton didn't play at this level, Ambres made up for him. In his first year of full season ball in 2000, Ambres struggled horrendously, with just a .709 OPS in 320 at-bats. Injuries plagued his season, but a poor batting average and little power did not help his case. The only positive sign at this point were his patience-speed combination that begged to be a future lead-off man: 52 walks and 26 steals.

    In 2001, Ambres did not get in an entirely full season of health again, though he played better in his 377 at-bats. He hit .265/.360/.416 with 53 walks and 19 steals, showing improved all-around play, but a worse performance in the positive stats from year one. If he had combined the two, his star would surely have been higher.

    Conversly, Jeff Francoeur barely had problems. The first-round football player hit .281/.325/.445 with the Rome Braves, also showing good defense and stealing 14 bases. His power potential was immense, and comparisons to Dale Murphy started to become commonplace. He was lacking a bit in polish, though, walking just 30 times in 524 at-bats. Still, there is no way this would have even given Ambres a chance to match Francoeur's star potential.

    High-A

    Murton joins us again, and this time with two different performances, as a midseason trade cut Murton's season into two. Before being dealt, Murton was beginning to show his one-time potential in Sarasota, hitting .301/.372/.452 with 42 walks in 376 at-bats. This, was the player the Red Sox drafted, especially when Murton won the FSL home run derby.

    But they traded him at the same time Nomar Garciaparra was sent to the Cubs, as Murton replaced the spots previously held by Justin Jones and Brendan Harris on the Chicago minor league ladder. Murton disappointed a bit after the trade in 79 at-bats, hitting .253 with a pedestrian .367 slugging percentage. Still, Murton had struck out just 71 times all year, so the book was already written on him. "Very good contact skills, but likely lacks the power for an outfield corner."

    There were no such worries about Francoeur, who managed a .508 slugging percentage in one of the minors most difficult stadiums. In Myrtle Beach of the Carolina League, Francoeur continued to build on the optimism that had been growing since his arrival into the system. Francoeur teamed his slugging percentage with a .293 batting average, and managed his strikeouts adequately, with 69 in 331 at-bats. The Braves then took a chance and allowed Francoeur to finish the season in AA.

    As far as Ambres goes, he's just lucky the Marlins didn't make him repeat this level. In his first real full season, Ambres was terrible in every non-patience/speed category possible. A .236 batting average, .365 slugging percentage, and 98 strikeouts just were not what the Marlins thought they had drafted. At all.

    From here on out, the order unquestionably goes Francoeur, Murton, and Ambres.

    Double-A

    Our final stop, as this was the final minor league level in which both Murton and Francoeur played at before their recent call-ups. And while Francoeur still remained a better prospect than Murton, when they were brought to the Majors, Murton had certainly been more impressive in the Southern League.

    In 2004, when the Braves let Jeff finish in AA, he struggled like he never had before. The former first-round pick hit just .197 in 76 at-bats, and in even more concerning fashion, did not draw one walk. Still, Baseball America praised Francoeur's season, and named him a better prospect than saber-fave Andy Marte. BA's thoughts have been validated a bit, as Francoeur proved his AA cup of coffee was nothing more than an aberration. Before becoming the Braves right fielder, Francoeur hit .275/.322/.487 in Mississippi. Nothing jaw-dropping -- the patience was still an issue -- but Francoeur's power potential was at an all-time high. Now, he has three doubles and three home runs in just 30 Major League ABs.

    Murton was better than Francoeur, as mentioned, in a season that no one saw coming. But while Francoeur's season began with huge struggles, Murton started fantastically, hitting .400 well into the season. Of course, this cannot be sustained forever (as their Major League stats will find out), and Murton's average dropped to *just* .342. His walking was down a bit -- 29 in 313 at-bats -- but not concerning considering his strikeouts (just 42). His speed was also a part of his game again, as Murton stole 18 bases in 23 attempts as a member of the Diamond Jaxx.

    Neither of the above player even played a full season in AA. Chip Ambres, however, played two. In 2003, the Marlin hit .258/.376/.439, vastly improved numbers on his Florida State League performance. He walked 72 times in 380 at-bats, but showed little speed, stealing just nine bases. While his stats were solid, they weren't good enough to warrant a promotion, and Ambres spent the 2004 season duplicating his previous campaign. Ambres hit .241/.352/.449 in what would be his final season with the Marlin organization. This was Florida's mistake, though, as they didn't see his rise in ISO, renewed speed (26 steals), and continued patience (76 walks).

    Instead, they let him walk. And he did just that, going north to the champion Boston Red Sox. Signed to play in Pawtucket, Ambres' hopes of helping the Red Sox were squashed with the club's selection of Adam Stern in the Rule 5 draft. Instead, Ambres was destined to become an organizational player, unless something happened quick. And that it did, as Ambres began to tear the cover off the ball in his first season at AAA. The Royals hoped to acquire the player that was hitting .294/.401/.495 with 19 steals in 279 at-bats, not the aging bonus baby that entered 2005 with a career OPS south of .800.

    Going Forward

    Not only do I believe these players will suffer drops in their season statistics, but they also are in danger of not even working their way into the organization's long-term plans. This does not, of course, apply to Francoeur, who has been handed a spot in the Atlanta outfield since the day he was drafted. His performance the rest of the way will dictate his Opening Day 2006 assignment, although it looks more and more like that will be in the Majors.

    Matt Murton and Chip Ambres, I'm afraid, will not have the same luck. Ambres is a center fielder stuck in an organization with David DeJesus, and is confident in DeJesus' abilities. While Ambres still shows signs of all five tools, he's best off playing in center and leading off somewhere. In that situation, expect about what the Cubs are getting from Jerry Hairston Jr.

    But what will the Cubs get from Murton? That's the toughest question to answer, as Matt has still not proven to be a legit corner outfielder. His contact and patience skills are fantastic, but I'm afraid that singles will not do, even with a team leading the world in infield corner production. Murton must show power to ever have a hope of a full-time gig, and will even need to up his ISO to become a platoon player. Does it seem to anyone else that the Cubs and Royals should just switch players?

    Each of these three players has a different considerable weakness, and each has a far different future ahead of them. This should hardly come as surprising news, given our trip through memory lane, going through vastly different pasts. But you can bet there are three scouting directors -- and thousands of fans -- that are ecstatic that these paths have crossed at this point, with these results.

    Update (3:46 p.m.): Well, those stats won't be going down today for at least two of the players. Jeff Francoeur just finished an insane day, leading the Braves to strengthen their hold on the NL East with a two home run day. His slugging percentage is now north of .950. Matt Murton started the day in left for the Cubs and went 1/2 before leaving the game in a double switch. It seems the stars are aligned for a big game from Chip Ambres at 6:15 tonight.

    Update (1:30 a.m.): Ambres did have a big game. 1/2 with a home run and two walks. Out to prove me wrong about being able to play LF at the Major League level. By the way, I really do like Jerry Hairston Jr. and Randy Winn as examples of his talent.

    For those of you still reading, a few minor league notes below the fold.


    WTNYJuly 26, 2005
    WTNY Midseason Mailbag
    By Bryan Smith

    In Baseball America's midseason top 25, John Manuel excluded any player that played in the Majors during the 2005 season. I noticed that on your top 75, ten of the players have violated Manuel's rule. If you used that ideology, what ten players would get squeezed onto the list?
    -- B. Smith

    Great question to start off the mailbag! I wonder who could think of such a good question. Anyway, it is true that ten players on my list have played in the Majors this season. Surely with different eligibility rules -- a.k.a...more strict than I have -- these players would have been excluded from the top 75. But more importance than their exit is the names of the players that enter.

    With that being said, here are the ten players that make up my honorable mention. I have chosen not to rank the group, so instead they are in alphabetical order:

    Homer Bailey: Cincinnati Reds (SP)

    Last June, the Brewers made a mistake in deciding that Mark Rogers was the draft's best high school pitching prospect. Bailey had near-equivalent numbers in Texas, a much harder environment than Rogers faced in New England. And while neither pitcher has shown a ton of polish this season, Bailey is showing a lot more upside. His ERA of 4.67 is enough to make your head spin, but he also has struck out 79 in 71.1 innings. Given a solid hit rate, strikeout rate and home run rate, expect Bailey to emerge as the Reds best pitching prospect in years next season.

    Brian Bannister: New York Mets (SP)

    Floyd's son has emerged this year as the best of the Bannister children, and third to two very good pitching prospects in the Mets organization. Brian is the closest to the Majors of Petit and Hernandez, as well, and should start paying dividends this September. His strikeout rate isn't fantastic, and he also has given up too many home runs this year -- though the Binghamton environment isn't pitcher-friendly. While neither of those is enough to prevent Bannister from succeeding, an abandonment of his control might. If Brian walks as few hitters as he did in the Eastern League, look for a middle-of-the-rotation career. If not, the recently-drafted Brett Bannister will look to keep Floyd's legacy going. And if we're being honest, Bannister edged out Tyler Clippard for spot 85.

    Jonathan Broxton: Los Angeles Dodgers (RP)

    I'll deal with Broxton more in-depth below, in a different mailbag about relievers. But I do believe that Broxton is the second best reliever in the minors right now, and may also have the best stuff. Kevin Goldstein reported Broxton hit 101 on the gun last week, which was surely enough to make Yhency Brazoban start to worry.

    Kory Casto: Washington Nationals (3B)

    The only National in the top 85, Casto leads a resurgent National system. He's not the best prospect in the organization, or even the best at his position (stand up, Mr. Zimmerman), but Casto is the best of the holdovers. When Hinckley and Everts are back to full strength next year, to go with Casto, Zimmerman, Diaz and Galarraga, this system will be stacked. And the entire Nationals scouting department will be in line for a raise, that's for sure. As far as Casto goes, it looks like he'll hit enough to take the position change to whatever the Nationals need. He's a bit old for the Carolina League, but his offensive skill set is looking pretty complete right now.

    Tom Gorzelanny: Pittsburgh Pirates (SP)

    With Zach Duke and Ian Snell graduated to the Majors, Gorzelanny becomes the top Pirate pitching prospect. He narrowly edges out teammate and fellow southpaw Paul Maholm, because Gorzelanny packs a little more punch. While the two boast similar hit and home run rates, Gorzelanny's K/9 is enough to push him over the hump. It amazes me how many left-handers this rotation could eventually have, but I believe that's organizational strategy more than anything else. That's another column waiting to be written.

    Jason Hammel: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (SP)

    More than any other player that didn't make the 75, Hammel is the one I worry about the most. He's the one that I can most see making me look like an idiot, as you could say he has the complete package. Size, control, durability, HR rate...it's all there. I'll say that he is prospect 76, mostly because I'm afraid of having him any lower.

    Zach Jackson: Toronto Blue Jays (SP)

    The Jays system certainly doesn't have a lot at the top, but it definitely has a lot in the middle. Jackson is the lone Jay in the top 85, but he narrowly edged out a few of his organizational mates. David Purcey, Adam Lind and Chi-Hung Cheng all were considered. Jackson is the best of the bunch right now, mostly because he's the closest to the Majors. While Purcey and Cheng have higher ceilings in the rotation, Jackson is a much safer bet. He thrives on good control, good enough stuff to strike some people out, and when he doesn't, a very good cutter to stop any good contact. Jackson is as close as one month from his Major League debut, and at worst, less than a year.

    Chuck James: Atlanta Braves (SP)

    Here to represent the lefties that didn't make it, the Rich Hills, Sean Marshalls, and Sean Henns of the world. James is the best of the bunch, in my opinion, as his peripherals are pretty unrivaled. He made a mockery of the Carolina League in seven starts, and certainly isn't showing signs of problems in the Southern League. An August promotion to AAA would do him well, as James needs to be challenged for the first time in this organization. We need to finally see what he's made of.

    Adam Jones: Seattle Mariners (SS)

    A personal guarantee: if Jones keeps up at even a shade of the pace he's on, he'll finish the year on my top 75. At 19, the former first-round pick dominated the California League, and has yet to slow down in AA. Also armed with a first-round caliber arm as a pitcher, it's safe to say Jones doesn't struggle with throws deep in the hole. I have him behind Cabrera, who has a resume with more consistent success. If I tried to play Jim Callis' game, I would go with this order: Cabrera, Jones, Betancourt, Tuiasasopo, Morse, Navarro. All in all, our disagreement comes from Asdrubal. It's hard to not be high on Jones.

    Greg Miller: Los Angeles Dodgers (SP)

    Given the success of players like Cole Hamels and Adam Miller post-rest, it's hard to give up on Greg. He had an arm equivalent to those two before his injury, but now needs to prove that it's still there. He's looked good in his six appearances so far, but the 15.2 inning sample size is just not enough. Nor are the eight walks good enough to justify a top 75 selection.

    And there you have it, players 76-85 on my prospect list.

    As a Dodger fan, I was wondering about the fates of Delwyn Young, Dioner Navarro, Travis Denker and Matt Kemp?
    -- Benaiah

    Benaiah, I think you forgot about Scott Elbert, James Loney, Cory Dunlap, Justin Orenduff, Sergio Pedroza, etc. The Dodgers system is unbelievably stacked, and off the top of my head, probably the organization with the most minor league depth. While two Dodgers fell in my honorable mention, I have to say that Orenduff was extremely close. I'm also a Dunlap fan, as I think his power might develop into a weapon in time.

    As far as the players you mentioned, it's really a no-tools group, save Dioner Navarro. 'Pudgito' has fallen into the system's second-best catching prospect, and is being forgotten quickly because of that. He has a lot of work to do to catch Russ Martin, who is superior in nearly every aspect of the game. But given Navarro's contact abilities, and above-average defense, I think he could be the Dodgers back-up catcher.

    After that, Delwyn Young probably has the next best tools. But Young is like ex-Dodger prospect Victor Diaz -- another big-hitting second baseman with very limited defensive skills. Young is probably, like Diaz, set up for third base or the outfield. But then his horrible selectivity skills come into play, and in the end, Young is just a marginal prospect. Denker is better at second base, though his season this year seems to be pretty fluky. It's too early to fairly evaluate Travis, as this year has to be seen as an aberration to everyone outside his parents.

    So, does Drew stay at short? Or are we seeing the D-Backs outfield in Jackson, Quentin and Drew (and doesn't that bode well for them!)
    -- Chris B
    Is the ranking of Quentin over Jackson despite Jackson's better stats and "write-up" in the list a reflection of ceiling? Is it because Quentin's higher on the defensive spectrum?
    -- Trev

    I'll answer Trev's question first, because it's the easier answer. Quentin is a better prospect than Jackson for a host of reasons. One is, as mentioned, Quentin's place on the defensive spectrum. Chris B. mentions Jackson being in the future Arizona outfield, but I do not think the Diamondbacks plan to shift Conor back there. The plan is to keep Jackson at first, while Quentin is good enough to stay in right field. Big difference there.

    Also, I believe Quentin to be the more complete hitter. Jackson has better selectivity, with contact skills that are among the best in the minor leagues. But Quentin has discipline that is good enough, and he matches it with plus power. Jackson, on the other hand, has gap power with the occasional home run. This is best seen when giving Jackson and Quentin the same BABIP rates (not a perfect method, I know), as Carlos then has an OPS about .120 higher than Conor.

    So, we have already established Jackson will be playing first base in Arizona for years to come. With Troy Glaus locked up until 2008, expect the Diamondbacks to trade Chad Tracy this winter (the White Sox, maybe?). While that leaves a space open for Jackson, Quentin is still blocked by either Luis Gonzalez or Shawn Green. The problem is that Gonzalez is an institution in Arizona, a power so large -- some believe -- that he had Randy Johnson traded. Green is a commodity that should be more wanted than last winter, after proving to still be healthy this winter.

    With Tracy and Green both traded, expect Jackson and Quentin to be regulars in 2006. Drew will take longer, likely one year longer, but should be given a spot when ready. At this point, his defense at shortstop hasn't been as bad as expected. Still, Stephen is likely better suited for second base or centerfield. Much of his future position will be decided by Sergio Santos, and whether or not Arizona views him as a solid shortstop option. Also, recent first pick Justin Upton should have some say, as any future plan should concern him as well.

    My guess at the Arizona lineup, maybe in 2008:

    C- Miguel Montero; 1B- Conor Jackson; 2B- Stephen Drew; SS- Sergio Santos; 3B- Troy Glaus; LF- Luis Gonzalez; CF- Justin Upton; RF- Carlos Quentin.

    I was wondering why there were no prospects specifically being groomed for relief. Do you not think they are worthy of top 75 rankings because they throw so few innings? The 1st pitcher that came to my mind was Fernando Cabrera who is absolutely lights out in AAA this year.
    -- Clark
    I'm just wondering what separates Travis Bowyer from someone like Capellan? Just Capellan's ability to start?
    -- GMoney

    A good starter is better than a good reliever. Plain and simple. If you give me a starter with consistent late 90s gas, he's a better prospect than the reliever with the same stuff. Because of that, being a reliever comes as a disadvantage to any prospect. That, better than anything else, explains why only one reliever (Capellan) made my list. But, I'm not opposed to putting them on my list. Jonathan Broxton was oh-so-very close. Bowyer and Cabrera weren't far off -- Bowyer closer -- but they are, in my mind, significantly worse prospects than Broxton and Capellan.

    And, this has nothing to do with Broxton and Capellan's "ability to start." That is useless to me, as I believe both pitchers are in for long careers as relievers. In fact, I doubt either player will start another game within their organization. Broxton sealed that deal this past week, when Kevin Goldstein reported the big, Dodger right-hander hit 101 on the gun. Capellan has been in the process of convincing his organization since before he even entered it.

    Before we talk about why the two ex-starters beat out Bowyer and Cabrera, let's look at their minor league numbers this year, as relievers:

    Name	ERA	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
    JC	1.25	7.06	7.89	3.74	0.42
    JB	3.50	8.00	12.50	2.00	0.50
    TB	1.68	5.20	11.74	4.86	0.34
    FC	0.99	6.55	12.31	1.79	0.40

    OK, that doesn't prove my case. While both Capellan and Broxton have been good, they are far from beating out the two AL Central future closers. For example, Capellan ranks second, third, fourth, third and third across the board with his peripherals. Broxton is even worse: fourth, fourth, first, second, fourth. But, both Capellan and Broxton are fairly new to the relief game, and their results are sample sizes at best.

    For example, if you look at their peripherals before the season, a different picture is painted.

    Name	ERA	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
    JC	2.69	7.68	8.87	3.18	0.13
    JB	3.14	7.34	9.55	3.74	0.37
    TB	3.02	7.43	8.26	5.01	0.28
    FC	3.78	7.99	9.19	3.66	0.70

    In this situation, all the players are close, but I think the two ex-starters have the edge. Capellan is first in three of the five categories, while Broxton leads the other two. Clearly, even as starters, these pitchers were lethal to opposing hitters. But they are obviously better suited for short distances, where their heavy fastballs are going to pay dividends. Capellan's HR/9 ratio should excite Milwaukee, while I remain worried about Cabrera, no matter what his 2005 sample size says. While Cabrera and Bowyer should have better short-term success in middle relief spots than Capellan or Broxton, the latter two should dominate when it's all said and done.

    And to guess, Bowyer would slot in somewhere in the 90-110 range, with Cabrera falling in somewhere shortly after that.

    WTNYJuly 20, 2005
    WTNY Midseason 75 (30-1)
    By Bryan Smith

    I'll jump right into it today, as we complete my midseason rankings. Any questions regarding the statistics listed can be answered by reading the beginning of yesterday's column. Next week, I'll answer a few of the questions in the comments, and give a brief honorable mention list.

    30. Joel Zumaya: Detroit Tigers (SP)- 20
    AA (EL): 2.77 71/107.1 143/52 8

    Struggled in his first AAA start, struggling with what else...control. I have reservations that Zumaya might just be the 2005 Capellan, with a move to relief around the corner. But to his credit, he seems more confident in his curve than Jose ever was, and the Tigers seem committed to giving him a feel for the change. I have mentioned left-handed trios a few times in the past two days, but how about the Tigers from the right side: Zumaya, Verlander, Bonderman?

    29. Brian McCann: Atlanta Braves (C)- 21
    AA (SOU): .265/.359/.476, 25/26 in 166 AB
    MLB: .333/.409/.487, 5/7 in 39 AB

    Still the top catching prospect in baseball, and despite a solid Major League stint, has just not received a lot of publicity this year. His power is tops at his position in the minors, and still on the verge of really showing itself. Still, despite his ceiling, you have to wonder which route the Braves will go: McCann or Johnny Estrada. Even with all the mixing and matching of 2005, I expect the Braves to go the safe route, and open next year with Estrada.

    28. Brian Anderson: Chicago White Sox (OF)- 23
    AAA (IL): .301/.367/.509, 36/92 in 346 AB

    Sort of the name everyone has forgot about, Anderson has gone about his business this year, and proven he's pretty much ready for the Majors. Saying Chris Young is the club's top outfield prospect is negligent, because Anderson has done nothing to lose the title. How the White Sox will solve their OF situation in the next two years is about as interesting as the middle infield depth problems in Seattle and Anaheim.

    27. Jon Papelbon: Boston Red Sox (SP)- 24
    AA (EL): 2.48 59/87 83/23 9
    AAA (IL): 6.52 11/9.2 10/1 2

    Passed by Lester for the Sox top pitching prospect honors, despite Papelbon having moved on to the International League. Peter Gammons has mentioned that the Sox might put Papelbon back to his college role -- relieving -- for this year, as his stuff out of the bullpen could help greatly. His power/control combination is pretty special, but the Red Sox need to make sure they don't wear out his arm.

    26. John Danks: Texas Rangers (SP)- 20
    A+ (CAL): 2.50 50/57.2 53/16 5
    AA (TEX): 4.91 62/55.0 51/16 5

    Despite what I've heard from other people, I'm going to go with my gut here and pick Danks ahead of Volquez. A young southpaw with his kind of stuff does not come around often, so expect the Rangers to really value their former top ten pick. He dominated the Midwest League in 2004, the Cal League this year, and should do the same to the Texas League next year. The one thing he's consistent with -- and expect that to carry to the next level -- is the peripherals he can control: strikeout and walk rates.

    25. Hanley Ramirez: Boston Red Sox (SS)- 21
    AA (EL): .273/.333/.418, 24/38, 18/24 SB in 297 AB

    Has to be frustrating for the Red Sox, as they never know quite what they have in Ramirez. I thought at the beginning of the year that Ramirez would replace Johnny Damon in center come 2006, but now that looks doubtful. Second base? Ehh, take the sure bet in Pedroia. If Ramirez is what it takes to get a huge deal done this July, the Red Sox should pull the trigger.

    24. Thomas Diamond: Texas Rangers (SP)- 22
    A+ (CAL): 1.99 53/81.1 101/31 3
    AA (TEX): 6.00 19/18 17/10 1

    He's good, and is in competition right now for pitcher of the year honors in the minor leagues. But like a few others from his draft class, is in danger of the raised BB/9 after hitting AA. Patient hitters should show Diamond's true colors, which were not graded out well by a scout that Baseball America recently interviewed. Still, I think Diamond is the best of the three Ranger starters, though I have them ranked so close, it's a three-sides quarter flip on any given day.

    23. Lastings Milledge: New York Mets (OF)- 20
    A+ (FSL): .302/.385/.418, 19/41, 18 SB in 232 AB

    Now that Felix Pie has broken out, Milledge fills the role that Pie has done for the last few years. We knew both were five tool talents, but the power is a question mark. It should come for Milledge as it has with Pie, but his recent move to AA might be a little soon. And while yesterday I spent imagining the Cabrera-Betancourt double play combo in Seattle, I think today will be pondering how good of an outfield Milledge, Beltran and Cameron could create.

    22. Francisco Liriano: Minnesota Twins (SP)- 21
    AA (EL): 3.64 70/76.2 92/26 6
    AAA (IL): 2.81 18/32 38/8 2

    Just not what Brian Sabean wanted to see. Who would have guessed that in the quintet of Ainsworth, Jerome Williams, Foppert, Merkin Valdez and Liriano, that the latter would end up the best? Williams and Valdez have time to prove that wrong, but the prospects don't look good. And trades like what Sabean made to acquire A.J. Pierzynski are grounds for firing. My readers know I think the world of Liriano, and I believe he could make a K-Rodish difference in September. If the Twins can get any sort of haul for J.C. Romero they should do it, and break in Liriano in high pressure situations this fall.

    21. Chad Billingsley: Los Angeles Dodgers (SP)- 20
    AA (SOU): 4.28 84/90.1 105/32 8

    Like Ian Stewart, Billingsley is coming around after his slow start, and his peripherals do speak volumes. If he can sustain that type of control, Billingsley has ace potential. But, he also could be Kerry Wood, or Kaz Ishii, or a flameout, or a bullpen ace. The most volatile player on this list.

    20. Jon Lester: Boston Red Sox (SP)- 21
    AA (EL): 2.45 79/103 119/36 6

    Is it early enough into his career to call him a notorious late bloomer? This winter, I noticed that Lester's 2004 season was masked by two awful starts to begin the season. This year, if not for a just-OK April, Lester would be right up there in the minor league player of the year race. Since his final April start, Lester has thrown 84 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to take the Eastern League lead. During that time he's allowed just 56 hits, 30 walks and three home runs against 97 strikeouts. While the Delmon Youngs and Justin Verlanders of the world have the early grasp on player of the year, Lester certainly has a chance to be on the final ballot. He's pitched his way past Jon Papelbon for the Red Sox top prospect slot and onto their untouchables list, making Theo Epstein thank his lucky stars he didn't trade Lester in a Big Unit deal. This kid -- confident in four pitches -- has all the makings of a future star, and he is in one of the Majors' right organizations to blossom.

    19. Jeff Francoeur: Atlanta Braves (OF)- 21
    AA (SOU): .275/.322/.487, 21/76, 13 SB in 335

    Now in the Majors, Francoeur homered in his first game against the Cubs. He has a bunch of flaws as a player -- both contact and selectivity -- but makes up for it in raw talent. Still, you have to wonder how long we'll be justifying walk rates with that comment. The Braves are huge believers in Francoeur, and have all-but-decided that he, Kelly Johnson and Andruw will make up the 2006 outfield. Expect Jeff to have the, by far, worst numbers of the group.

    18. Ian Stewart: Colorado Rockies (3B)- 20
    A+ (CAL): .271/.359/.481, 35/66 in 266 AB

    Starting to come around after a slow start, Stewart is doing just fine. Scouts and sabermatricians alike should still be drooling at what exactly Stewart + Coors will equal. A slow start both scared me a little bit, and allowed Stewart to get passed by some sensational players. If his second half goes like his last thirty games, he'll be passing them right back.

    17. Andy LaRoche: Los Angeles Dodgers (3B)- 21
    A+ (FSL): .333/.380/.651, 19/38 in 249 AB
    AA (SOU): .297/.373/.527, 11/25 in 91 AB

    We could have criticized his walk rates in the FSL, but LaRoche is now proving that he wasn't walking because he was hitting everything. The Dodgers can only hope that this more complete AA version is the real LaRoche, and that by midseason next year, they have found their Adrian Beltre replacement.

    16. Felix Pie: Chicago Cubs (OF)- 20
    AA (SOU): .304/.349/.554, 16/53, 13 SB in 240 AB

    Finally having the year, it is now well-known that Pie's recent injury is the only thing holding him back from the Majors. This organization believes in him, and at this point, very well might prefer him to Corey Patterson. Look for the team to leave a spot open for Pie to snatch this winter. Or at least I hope they do. Rafael Furcal will provide better value than Juan Pierre, IMO.

    15. Yusmeiro Petit: New York Mets (SP)- 20
    AA (EL): 2.93 64/73.2 83/12 11

    While the home run rate might be concerning with a different player, Petit nullifies that worry with his control. His pitchability is the best of any player on this list, and the only flaw in my mind is that he's been a bit too hittable. Won't be a Major League ace, but will be just fine sitting next to Pedro in the rotation.

    14. Daric Barton: Oakland Athletics (1B)- 19
    A+ (CAL): .318/.438/.469, 62/49 in 292 AB
    AA (TEX): .357/.440/.595, 7/7 in 42 AB

    Now in the Texas League, and dominating there. He is oh-so-talented, and will be quite the tandem with Dan Johnson in the 1B/DH slot for years to come. Expect Barton up by next year, at age 20, where he will continue to evoke Carlos Delgado comparisons. As good as Dan Haren has looked this year, Barton is the Beane acquisition of the winter.

    13. Brandon Wood: Anaheim Angels (SS)- 20
    A+ (CAL): .316/.379/.670, 33/78 in 364 AB

    Should we start Free Brandon Wood and Stephen Drew campaigns, or what? Wood has proven everything that he is going to in the Cal League, and Erick Aybar certainly isn't a reason to block him. Defense the only question mark on Wood's resume, although it shouldn't be enough to move him. While the left side of the Angels won't be winning any Gold Gloves from 2007-2012, few shortstop/third base combinations will hit more home runs.

    12. Conor Jackson: Arizona Diamondbacks (1B)- 23
    AAA (PCL): .362/.462/.553, 62/27 in 304 AB

    After watching Jason Bay in the All-Star festivities last week, there is no question in my mind who the answer to Peter Gammons' question, "Who will be the next All-Star in 2007?" That answer, is Conor Jackson. The Diamondback is following in the footsteps of Bay and Ryan Church after him with a wonderful PCL performance leading into the Majors. A quick chart, with each player's OPS:

    Name	PCL	MLB
    JB	0.951	0.908
    RC	1.048	0.924
    CJ	1.015	???

    Throw in selectivity skills that are unparalleled in the minors, and you have the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year.

    11. Carlos Quentin: Arizona Diamondbacks (OF)- 22
    AAA (PCL): .310/.431/.559, 51/41, 7/7 SB in 306 AB

    Not really doing anything wrong, Quentin still gets kicked out of the top Diamondback prospect slot. Still, Quentin is good enough for the Diamondbacks to open a hole for this winter, if not by August.

    10. Joel Guzman: Los Angeles Dodgers (SS/3B)- 20
    AA (SOU): .282/.346/.489, 34/101 in 323 AB

    Proving that last year wasn't a fluke, Guzman has been solid all year. We haven't seen him really turn on the jets at some point, and he certainly cannot continue to whiff at a 30% rate. He's better than I gave him credit for during the offseason, but things need to start happening soon. Better contact and a defined position would be a nice start.

    9. Stephen Drew: Arizona Diamondbacks (SS)- 22
    A+ (CAL): .353/.450/.735, 16/19 in 102 AB

    OK, Arizona, just admit that Drew has proven his point. Sending him to A-ball was insulting, he is so much better than that. AA is the best place to judge Diamondback hitting prospects -- the atmosphere isn't too pro-offense -- so we'll get a better idea of his ceiling soon.

    8. Justin Verlander: Detroit Tigers (SP)- 22
    A+ (FSL): 1.67 70/86 104/19 3
    AA (EL): 0/00 5/15 18/3 0

    About to receive his second Major League start, and will in all likelihood, lose his eligibility by year's end. Still, I wanted to give Verlander his due, and name him the minors third best pitching prospect. In Verlander and the two below him, I see three players that are very close to becoming Major League horses. You can bet the Tigers will be willing to send the Kenny Baughs and Kyle Sleeths of the world to the doctor if TINSTAPP is willing to keep their trio of flamethrowers safe.

    7. Billy Butler: Kansas City Royals (LF)- 19
    A+ (CAL): .348/.422/.642, 35/68 in 310 AB

    When the only knock you can find on a young player is the environment in which he plays, you are nitpicking. Butler, no matter the position, has the makings of becoming a future batting and home run champion. Jim Thome comparisons still apply, as I believe that Butler will still end up at first base. If it is left field, how about Carlos Lee? Just a wonderful pick by the Royals last year...wonderful.

    6. Matt Cain: San Francisco Giants (SP)- 20
    AAA (PCL): 4.34 81/103.2 123/57 16

    One tough pitching environment, so I'm willing to give Cain some slack. But that walk rate is concerning, as are the number of home runs (to a lesser degree). This organization needs to put some validity into their player development system by having Cain turn into the player he can be. Letting him spend his final 4-5 starts in the Majors, with a big league pitching coach, might just be what the doctor ordered.

    5. Jeremy Hermida: Florida Marlins (OF)- 21
    AA (SOU): .294/.451/.514, 76/68, 19/20 SB in 269 AB

    He's stealing again, which really makes Hermida the minors top five-tool talent. Where he fits into the Marlin OF mix (he could replace Cabrera, Pierre, or Encarnacion) remains to be seen. But they will find him a spot. And if the Marlins decide to make Hermida their number two hitter -- which is the choice I would ultimately reccommend -- expect opposing pitchers to be awful scared of facing Hermida, then Cabrera, then Delgado. Yikes.

    4. Prince Fielder: Milwaukee Brewers (1B)- 21
    AAA (PCL): .258/.361/.508, 38/66 in 264 AB
    MLB: .321/.321/.536, 0/7 in 28 AB

    Does anyone else notice that Fielder really performs when the lights are on? His first full season, Fielder was being watched closely, and ended up winning the Midwest League MVP by a landslide. So while people turned their heads a bit last year, Fielder's play dropped a bit. Then he got the call to big league spring training, and impressed everyone through the first two weeks of exhibition games, where there was talk of moving Overbay...quickly. But then Prince cooled considerably towards the end. Now after just going through the motions in the PCL this year, we again saw Prince's potential in a recent Major League call. If he can put it all together at once...watch out.

    3. Andy Marte: Atlanta Braves (3B)- 21
    AAA (IL): .284/.380/.523, 39/50 in 430 AB
    MLB: .159/.235/.250, 5/8 in 44 AB

    Sort of the opposite of Fielder. Where Prince disappointed with his AAA play this year, but then lit up the Majors, Marte was just the opposite. Brought up to replace an injured Chipper Jones, Marte showed signs of being rushed in the worst way. Still, he's playing very well in AAA, and sooner or later, that will pay off. Not only do the Braves have some catching decisions to make this winter, but they also need to choose two from Marte, Jones and Adam LaRoche.

    2. Felix Hernandez: Seattle Mariners (SP)- 19
    AAA (PCL): 2.55 58/77.2 84/42 3

    Back now from an injury that had him out most of June. The Mariners are intelligently babying him, as they haven't with so many prospects in the past. Like Cain he has had a concerning walk rate this season, but that is really the only thing that has been wrong...besides his health. He should finish the year in Seattle and open next year there, hopefully to a hero's welcome each time.

    1. Delmon Young: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (OF)- 19
    AA (SOU): .336/.386/.582, 25/66, 25 SB in 330 AB

    Now moved up to AAA, Young is a stronger walk rate from being a flawless prospect. This September, I'm a Devil Rays fan. Let me go out on a limb and say supplanting Damon Hollins shouldn't be the most difficult thing Young has ever done. He's a fantastic talent, and was the right choice in the 2003 draft. Tampa fans can't ask much more than that from the front office.

    WTNYJuly 19, 2005
    WTNY Midseason 75 (75-31)
    By Bryan Smith

    Alright ladies and gentleman, start your engines, it's list time. Finally I have my midseason top 75 all ready for viewing, and we will go through the players during the next two days. Please notice the list does not include any players drafted in the 2005 draft, or those currently playing in short-season ball. I promise to rank them this winter, but it's too early this time around.

    For each player I have provided their statistics, as well as their age. The numbers I used, and the way I presented them, are pretty similar to past styles (hitters: AVG/OBP/SLG, W/K, SB in AB; pitchers: ERA H/IP K/BB HR). Today we begin the countdown with numbers 75-31, so please enjoy and check back tomorrow.

    75. Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Atlanta Braves (C)- 20
    A+ (CAR): .294/.374/.471, 32/66 in 272 AB

    Interestingly enough, Salty is a very similar player to the one he’s trying to supplant, Johnny Estrada. I really like Jarrod, and I would say there is about a decent chance that he becomes a better player than Brian McCann. Both need to work on their defense, but it appears their bats will be enough. Atlanta doesn't have very many parks that are good on hitters, Myrtle Beach being the worst, so we may not get to see Salty's true ceiling for awhile. But trust me, some of those doubles will start going over the fence soon.

    74. Javier Guzman: Pittsburgh Pirates (SS)- 21
    A+ (CAR): .324/.374/.488, 20/41, 13/18 SB in 256 AB
    AA (EL): .323/.340/.469, 3/14, 1/2 SB in 96 AB

    Really under the radar player that has gained my attention. I could have chosen a few middle infielders with this choice, but instead I like Guzman. Yes, more than Erick Aybar, more than Alberto Callaspo, and for the time being, more than Adam Jones. Guzman seems like he will replace Jack Wilson in short time, offering Pittsburgh a little bit of everything. Solid defense, switch-hitting, enough patience (well, in A+, not AA), very good contact, and above average power. I'm convinced.

    73. Javi Herrera: Oakland Athletics (OF)- 20
    A- (MID): .274/.371/.414, 33/73, 19/23 SB in 237 AB

    Living near Kane County, I have seen Herrera a couple times this year, and he has lived up to expectations. Shows very good range and instincts in center, and his selectivity is solid. Throw in some very good speed, and Herrera has five-tool written all over him. The power is not quite there yet, but he's a well-built player, and it should come with time. The A's aren't really used to developing raw players, so it will be interesting to see how Herrera and Richie Robnett turn out.

    72. Chris Lambert: St. Louis Cardinals (SP)- 22
    A+ (FSL): 2.63 53/54.2 46/15 4
    AA (SOU): 4.43 34/40.2 39/25 5

    As I have previously noted, Lambert impressed me as much as any other player in the Futures Game. He has his issues, but probably also has the best stuff in a St. Louis organization that is slowly developing some talent. If his fastball control can tighten up, Lambert is going to take off. He's not as raw as it sounded when drafted out of BC, but he's certainly not a finished project either.

    71. Jason Kubel: Minnesota Twins (OF/DH)- 23
    NO STATS- INJURED

    If Kubel was still a good prospect this winter, when we knew about his knee, you have to consider him a good prospect now. True tests won't be until instructional league, or the AFL, or winter ball, and we'll be watching closely. I just pray he doesn't go all Matt Whitney/Alex Escobar on us.

    70. Matt Moses: Minnesota Twins (3B)- 20
    A+ (FSL): .306/.376/.453, 28/59, 13/17 SB in 265 AB

    Still, proving that back problems have been the cause for his previous bad seasons, after being chosen in the first round. His health puts him on this list, and Michael Aubrey off, but anyone knows back problems can arise at any time. Moses is the future at the Minnesota third base bag, only if one bad swing doesn't derail that track first.

    69. Brandon Moss: Boston Red Sox (OF)- 21
    AA (EL): .264/.339/.439, 37/93 in 326 AB

    Talk about a player I can't read, Moss suddenly got extremely hot this year, bringing himself from an average Eastern League hitter to an all-star. Part of me is such a huge seller of Moss that I would take David Murphy before him, but that is probably a bit extreme. Like Markakis, I'm just not sure he has the power for an outfield corner, meaning he may end up as a bench bat.

    68. Glen Perkins: Minnesota Twins (SP)- 22
    A+ (FSL): 2.13 41/55 66/13 2
    AA (EL): 3.38 24/26.2 22/18 1

    Along with a few others, proving accomplished college pitchers can handle high-A, but really face their first test in AA. Perkins hasn't been great in the Eastern League so far, lessening expectations that were too high during his FSL dominance. Perkins is a good middle-of-the-rotation guy, but not one that is going to save a rotation.

    67. Jason Vargas: Florida Marlins (SP)- 22
    A- (SAL): 0.80 16/33.2 33/10 1
    A+ (FSL): 3.42 47/55.1 60/14 6
    AA (CAR): 2.84 13/19.0 25/7 3

    Really on a tour of America this year, Vargas is currently on his fourth level of the season in Miami. He has seen success at each stop, and his first start against the Diamondbacks went fine. Four walks is way too much for five innings, and they look to be the result of falling behind in the count, in which Vargas does not pitch very effectively. A lot of people would kill for the southpaw trio of Willis, Olsen and Vargas in one rotation.

    66. Cole Hamels: Philadelphia Phillies (SP)- 21
    A+ (FSL): 2.25 7/16 18/7 0
    AA (EL): 2.08 8/13 14/7 2

    This time around I have promised myself to be cautiously optimistic on Hamels, who has made a habit of disappointing believers in the past. He has come back with the form we remembered, not showing ill effects of his broken hand. Cole is a special player that needs to avoid the health and make-up issues that have haunted his past.

    65. Miguel Montero: Arizona Diamondbacks (C)- 21
    A+ (CAL): .349/.403/.625, 26/52 in 355 AB

    The current favorite for the Reed-Kinsler breakout of the year award, Montero is now in AA after making fools of high-A pitchers. I'm more skeptical of Montero than most players on this list, but that roots more from his newfound skills than anything else. If this just had been Francisco Hernandez, I wouldn't be thinking twice about his placement.

    64. Jeff Niemann: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (SP)- 22
    A+ (CAL): 3.98 12/20.1 28/10 3

    Niemann is part of the ESP (Electric Sore Prospect) club, which I'll detail later, now that he's been sore since the end of his sophomore season at Rice. Ryan Anderson, who has been mentioned in 525,600 Peter Gammons columns, will be quick to tell Niemann that when you are 6-9, people give you some patience. My guess is that Niemann will never be the dominant pitcher we saw during his amazing sophomore campaign, one that all-but-guaranteed a top pick the following year. Amazing what difference a sore shoulder can do, huh?

    63. Jered Weaver: Anaheim Angels (SP)- 22
    A+ (CAL): 4.85 24/26 39/5 3

    Really coming on strong after a rough start. His pitchability is off the charts, second maybe only to Yusmeiro Petit on this list. But, his G/F that Rich listed is concerning, as is the stuff that scouts have long and outspokenly doubted. Look for him to prove the scouts wrong, settling nicely into a number two/three role in the Majors.

    62. Shin-Soo Choo: Seattle Mariners (OF)- 22
    AAA (PCL): .257/.374/.391, 48/66, 15/22 SB in 261 AB

    I've come to two conclusions about Choo, I'm just not sure which one is right. On the one hand, what I've seen from him is indicative of his potential, a solid-hitting corner outfielder that hits better than Jeremy Reed. On the other hand, I'm just good luck for Choo, who never disappoints when I'm watching.

    61. Chris Young: Chicago White Sox (OF)- 21
    AA (SOU): .261/.356/.525, 44/90, 17/22 SB in 322 AB

    Simply put, Young is a dynamite prospect once you can accept him for his faults. Now it's those faults -- or more specifically, his contact skills -- that are also holding him back from becoming a top prospect. But everyone seems to be catching on to my argument that Young is a better prospect than Ryan Sweeney, because he trumps the right fielder both in power and defense...by a lot.

    60. Gaby Hernandez: New York Mets (SP)- 19
    A- (SAL): 2.43 59/92.2 99/30 4

    Now in St. Lucie, where he replaced Philip Humber, who replaced Brian Bannister, before Humber went down with Tommy John. Most organizations would kill to have Hernandez as their number three prospect in the system, as Gaby has been a steal since being drafted. His control could stand a bit of improvement, but that's nitpicking in some pretty flawless peripherals in his first full-season league.

    59. Anthony Reyes: St. Louis Cardinals (SP)- 23
    AAA (PCL): 3.08 68/84.2 83/18 8

    I have recently determined that Reyes is one of the current top members of the aforementioned ESP club. He is joined by Angel Guzman and Jeff Niemann at the top, and they recently honored former member Bobby Bradley with an award. Reyes has been sore since his days at USC, and I'm just not sure it's going away. At this point we have to assume the worst, and accept that Reyes might just always tease us with his potential, but come up lame when it matters the most.

    58. Wes Bankston: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1B)- 21
    A+ (CAL): .387/.513/.629, 15/17 in 62 AB
    AA (SOU): .331/.400/.549, 17/30 in 142 AB

    Over at Rays Baseball, an argument has arisen that Bankston is the best first base prospect in the minors, ahead of Conor Jackson. The surprising thing is that the argument isn't too outlandish, and Bankston really does have a case. I'm a big Bankston believer, but I think that is probably a bit too over the top. Wes has been extremely impressive after a late start this year, and has caught up with the Elijah Dukes track. When they hit the Majors, meeting Delmon and Upton, this team will have no choice but to be improved.

    57. Chris Snelling: Seattle Mariners (OF)- 23
    AAA (PCL): .363/.447/.500, 33/40 in 215 AB

    Or should I say Doyle? Snelling has been lights out in his one millionth return from his two thousandth freak injury. The only thing he has to prove to be better than Eddy Martinez-Esteve, a very similar player offensively, is that he can stay health for a few months. The Mariners handled Snelling inappropriately in a recent call-up, but they sound very high on his future. I can tell you this: I'm just praying the Mariners throw Snelling and Bucky Jacobsen into their 2006 lineup...and many more after that.

    56. George Kottaras: San Diego Padres (C)- 22
    A+ (CAL): .294/.380/.462, 43/55 in 299 AB

    Similar player to Martin, because he is a very disciplined hitter with at worst, average power. Besides patience, I like Kottaras' bat more, but there is no question that Martin is the better defense. I also learned from Calleaguers.com that Kottaras is an extreme pull hitter, a flaw that must be improved in higher levels. I just wish we could put Nick Hundley's power on Kottaras, which would make him super-hitting-catching-prospect, also known as Brian McCann.

    55. Adam Miller: Cleveland Indians (SP)- 20
    SS (NYPL): 5.06 17/10.2 6/4 0
    A+ (CAR): 2.16 19/16.2 8/6 1

    Not back yet, so it isn't quite far to evaluate his results. In fact, it will probably be too early to do so this entire season. But he's pitching and not throwing it seems like, as his results have been good despite bad peripherals. Not sure he'll be hitting 101 again this year, but Miller is still something special.

    54. Jose Capellan: Milwaukee Brewers (RP)- 24
    AAA (PCL): 4.28 75/75.2 59/36 3

    I jinxed Jose in my relief article from a few weeks ago, in which I talked about his scoreless streak as a reliever. That has since ended, but Capellan has continued to have success in the bullpen. It's obviously a better home for him the rotation, in which he is throwing 80ish fastballs per every 100 pitches, and not with the same velocity he can bring in the bullpen. I would like to see a few more strikeouts from the closer spot, but Capellan still screams Armando Benitez to me. And I don't mean that as a bad thing.

    53. Hunter Pence: Houston Astros (OF)- 22
    A- (SAL): .337/.413/.667 35/52 in 276 AB

    It's hard for me to evaluate players like Hunter Pence and Eric Patterson, along with (to a lesser degree) Sergio Pedroza. These guys are simply doing what we expected, which is dominating competition that they should be dominating. But Pence is the best of the group because of his size, power and position. Before we can get a perfect handle on Pence, though, he needs a challenge.

    52. Nick Markakis: Baltimore Orioles (OF)- 21
    A+ (CAR): .294/.375/.464, 39/56 in 306 AB

    At this point, I can't decide about Markakis. Option 1, he is going to be the player he has shown in nearly a year and a half of playing time: fine hitter, but certainly not the production you would hope from a right fielder. Option 2, he is the player he was for a month or so last year, and the player I think he can be: star. It all lies in that bat, where the question will always be whether his power will play in Peoria...err, right field.

    51. Asdrubal Cabrera: Seattle Mariners (SS)- 19
    A- (MID): .318/.407/.474, 30/32 in 192 AB
    A+ (CAL): .341/.378/.537, 6/12 in 82 AB

    Probably the surprise ranking on this list, but I admit to have fallen in love with Cabrera's credentials as a prospect. Everyone I've talked to uses words like "exceptional" and "special" to describe his defense...at the age of 19. He's also proven to be versatile in the field, already playing three positions this season. But on top of that, Cabrera has shown very solid offensive skills. He makes consistently good contact, and hits for more than enough more given his position. While the patience has evaporated of late, it's still there. I can only imagine a future double play combination of Cabrera and Betancourt, who project to be one of the best defensively of this generation.

    50. Eddy Martinez-Esteve: San Francisco Giants (OF/DH)- 21
    A+ (CAL): .319/.429/.528, 59/59 in 326 AB

    A complete hitter that needs to get challenged with a promotion. EME has recently started to play the field more, as the Giants hope they can turn him into a left fielder, or at worst, a first baseman. His bat will play anywhere in the field, as it has very few flaws. Shame on 29 teams for passing on Esteve's bat because he couldn't play defense.

    49. Merkin Valdez: San Francisco Giants (SP)- 23
    AA (EL): 2.85 73/85.1 74/34 3

    One frustrating player. The Giants at this point must be good confused about Valdez, because they just don't know what they have. Sometimes it's a future ace, sometimes a player in need of a move to the bullpen. Sometimes, he might just be a middle of the rotation guy. But the caveat to all this is that Valdez has very good stuff, and should survive in the Majors no matter what role the Giants decide on. Expect them to keep him in the rotation until his ERA dictates otherwise, a la Capellan.

    48. Ian Kinsler: Texas Rangers (2B)- 23
    AAA (PCL): .262/.326/.461, 29/62, 10/13 SB in 343 AB

    Some days Alfonso is as good as gone, others he's going to stay in Texas for quite some time. I'm not sure what to believe anymore, I just hope that Kinsler has a 2006 job. You can bet the Soriano rumors would be louder if Kinsler had a better OBP, but I expect that to rise along with his batting average in the second half.

    47. Anibal Sanchez: Boston Red Sox (SP)- 21
    A+ (CAR): 2.40 53/78.2 95/24 7
    AA (EL): 2.35 6/7.2 11/4 2

    Along with Edison Volquez and to a lesser degree Fernando Nieve, the three are proving that a little patience is all that is needed from live Latino arms. The most impressive thing I have seen on Sanchez is just how enthusiastic Chris Kline of Baseball America was after seeing Sanchez in the Carolina League All-Star game. I wasn't blown away with him in the Futures Game, but I certainly saw reason for excitement. He may end up better out of the bullpen, with a fantastic 1-2 punch, and certainly gives the Red Sox a good trading chip.

    46. Troy Patton: Houston Astros (SP)- 19
    A- (SAL): 1.94 59/78.2 94/20 3

    Everyone has known the Astros had the steal of the 2004 draft since last season ended. But, for a long time, they thought that steal was Mitch Einertson. With the Appy League home run champ struggling in low-A, Patton has taken off after Houston surprisingly talked him out of a college commitment. Given his confident, solid three-pitch arsenal, expect he and Gio Gonzalez to be battling for top southpaw prospect spot very soon. Recently promoted to the Carolina League.

    45. Eric Duncan: New York Yankees (3B)- 20
    AA (EL): .240/.348/.386, 49/85 in 337 AB

    The Yankees are believers in Duncan, who probably should have at least started the year in the FSL. His start was very bad this year, and his numbers improve when considering that. If you simply throw out his first 55 at-bats this year, in which Duncan collected nine singles, Duncan't line improves to about .265/.360/.450. That's not great, but for a 20-year-old in AA with a lot of undeveloped power, the Yanks will take it.

    44. Chuck Tiffany: Los Angeles Dodgers (SP)- 20
    A+ (FSL): 3.36 64/80.1 92/28 10

    Very unsung player that has been really good since ending the season in the largest of ways last year. I'm concerned with the home run rate, especially considering the park and league, but everything else looks good with Tiffany. Where the team has been aggressive in the past to move such players up the ladder quickly, they seem to be learning from past mistakes. Expect Tiffany to be in Jacksonville next year, for most of the season, unless he pushes the envelope.

    43. Curtis Granderson: Detroit Tigers (OF)- 24
    AAA (IL): .290/.355/.506, 36/108, 16/22 SB in 362 AB

    Last year his hot streak came in August, where Granderson went from being a 100-200 prospect to landing himself in the top 75. This year, his breakout seems to be happening in July, where he is really hitting the accelerator in the International League. Like Brian Anderson, I don't see too many things wrong with Curtis, he just doesn't blow you away. And like Shin-Soo Choo, he plays a sketchy centerfield, and his defense there may just make or break his tenure as a Tiger.

    42. Kendry Morales: Anaheim Angels (Corner)- 22
    A+ (CAL): .344/.400/.544, 6/11 in 90 AB
    AA (TEX): .264/.310/.425, 7/20 in 106 AB

    During the winter, we had no idea what we had in Morales, other than a few scouts claiming he would have made up for the club not signing Jered Weaver. We saw quickly that the California League wasn't tough for Morales, and the team did not hesitate correcting their assignment mistake. It appears that Arkansas will be the make or break place for Morales, as his performances have been up and down so far. We still don't really know what the Angels have in Morales...we just know it could be something very good.

    41. Fernando Nieve: Houston Astros (SP)- 22
    AA (TEX): 2.65 62/85 96/29 7
    AAA (PCL): 3.38 33/32 20/13 3

    While the Astros have been very quick to aggressively promote prospects this year, they have taken the correct route with Nieve. Slow to develop in the minors, the Astros are milking Nieve's breakout in the minors. My guess is that he breaks camp with Houston next year, and should be considered one of the favorites to come second to Conor Jackson in the Rookie of the Year race.

    40. Howie Kendrick: Anaheim Angels (2B)- 21
    A+ (CAL): .384/.421/.638, 14/42, 13/17 in 279 AB

    The little guy just keeps on hitting, showing his bat speed is pretty unparalleled in the minors. He fine power to go with those fantastic contact skills, putting him some patience away from the complete hitting prospect. The team was willing to push Alberto Callaspo just to keep Kendrick's path on track, so you can see they have confidence in their young second baseman.

    39. Edison Volquez: Texas Rangers (SP)- 21
    A+ (CAL): 4.19 64/66.2 77/12 9
    AA (TEX): 4.06 45/44.1 35/15 4

    He wants to be Yusmeiro Petit, just does not have the same results. Volquez has been a little too hittable this year to justify Pedro comparisons, but Mr. Dominguez in the same organization can tell you that tends to happen easily. I'm not nearly as sold on Volquez as other places, since he really has not had a dominant season. I need one more dominant string of starts, at least, before I really jump on the bandwagon.

    38. Edwin Encarnacion: Cincinnati Reds (3B)- 22
    AAA (IL): .301/.380/.543, 33/51 in 269 AB

    I agree with John Sickels that it's amazing this guy isn't believed in more than he has been. I will also admit to being a naysayer in the past, but am one that is converting. Encarnacion is very similar to Andy Marte, in the fact that he's always been solid, while kept us waiting for that huge, HUGE season. He may be a rich man's Mark Teahen in the end (a poor version of his defense), but that wouldn't be so bad. Edwin is certainly reason for the Reds to take the best offer they can get for Joe Randa come deadline. He's also reason for the Twins, Padres, and whoever else enters the fray to not offer much.

    37. Gio Gonzalez: Chicago White Sox (SP)- 19
    A- (SAL): 1.87 36/57.2 84/22 3
    A+ (CAR): 4.34 16/18.2 23/6 2

    You could say that Gonzalez has had an up and down first season, but the downs are strictly small injuries that have kept him out. Besides that Gonzalez has been lights out, making mincemeat of Sally League hitters. I've said before that Johan comparisons are off, but Gio is also better than Jeremy Affeldt, a fellow southpaw with a similar hammer curveball.

    36. Casey Kotchman: Anaheim Angels (1B)- 22
    AAA (PCL): .268/.343/.373, 31/37 in 306 AB

    In danger of really slipping, Kotchman might be the disappointment of the 2005 season. It's too early to give up on him, but it looks like the Angels made the right decision to use Darin Erstad at the first base bag this year. If he finishes the season like he has started it, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Jered Weaver (to name a few) will not be behind him next time.

    35. Elijah Dukes: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (OF)- 21
    AA (SOU): .300/.364/.514, 30/60, 15/22 SB in 313 AB

    Let the Rocco Baldelli v. Elijah Dukes debates begin! Another debate has been happening over at Minor League Ball, where many have argued against the merits of Dukes against Lastings Milledge. The latter has a higher ceiling at this point, and that still wins out, especially considering what he's done since healing from injury. But Dukes screams out Milton Bradley to me, and has for quite some time.

    34. Russ Martin: Los Angeles Dodgers (C)- 22
    AA (SOU): .317/.440/.421, 53/41 in 271 AB

    By far, the most complete catcher in the minors. Martin has been high on the Dodgers radar since a lights-out Spring Training, and you can bet Paul DePodesta is noticing an OBP which is about as good as anyone on this list. You can bet the Dodgers won't be spending big money on third base or catcher this offseason, as both positions should be filled by (at worst) 2007.

    33. Jeremy Sowers: Cleveland Indians (SP)- 22
    A+ (CAR): 2.78 60/71.1 75/19 5
    AA (EL): 1.57 21/28.2 27/7 3

    In a recent chat, John Manuel of Baseball America talked about how the Padres coulda-woulda-shoulda gone the safe route with Sowers last year with the top pick. The left-hander has been absolute dynamite this year, actually improving with a promotion to the Eastern League. The Indians might be daring enough to give their '04 pick a September start, as the team really gears up to win the AL Central in 2006. Sowers should help that campaign, giving the Indians a southpaw trio that matches that in Miami.

    32. Phil Hughes: New York Yankees (SP)- 19
    A- (SAL): 1.97 46/68.2 72/16 1
    A+ (FSL): 4.76 3/5.2 8/2 0

    You can bet that after a string of bad drafts, coupled with a newfound Yankee dependence on the farm system, the 2003-2005 drafts are especially important for the employment of the Yankee scouting staff. With that being said, many of them are probably hanging their hats on Hughes. Early results bode well, as Hughes has quickly become the best high school pitching prospect from last June's draft. He was extremely consistent in his dominance of the Sally League, and should be ahead of Duncan on the Yankee untouchable list.

    31. Dustin Pedroia: Boston Red Sox (2B)- 21
    AA (EL): .324/.409/.508, 34/26 in 256 AB
    AAA (IL): .246/.343/.344, 6/4 in 61 AB

    Still behind Hanley because of ceiling, but the gap has closed considerably. Pedroia is going to be the 2006 Red Sox Opening Day second baseman. And you can bet he's a sure thing to be a favorite in Boston, like David Eckstein, but with good play.

    Please leave any and all minor league questions below, as I hope to make a mailbag of such comments for next week. Also, please come back tomorrow as I count down the top thirty.

    WTNYJuly 13, 2005
    Never on Break
    By Bryan Smith

    My guess is by the time you have reached our site today, you have read dozens of articles on the boring All-Star Game and even worse Kenny Rogers saga. There will be none of that today, as I take a look at the place that never stops: the minor leagues. Today will be, again, primarily a notes column. Expect what's below to grow in size as the day wears on. Besides that, please enjoy the All-Star Break.

  • THE NEXT BATCH -- Unfortunately my midseason top 75 will not include some of my favorite prospects: the ones I predict to breakout. While I have written two articles in the past on the issue, one before the 2004 season and another before 2005, there are constantly players that catch my eye. I want to take some time out right now to look at two that are really in my head. They may, of course, be repeated as breakouts for my pre-2006 article, but in case they have huge second halves, I don't want you to think my eyes were completely closed.

    • GARRETT MOCK (RHP, AZ): Last season, Jon Lester was one of my favorite prospects despite a relatively high ERA. I noticed that much of Lester's ERA derived from his first two starts, in which the big lefty allowed twelve runs in four innings. After that he calmed, and had a great rest of the season (3.23 ERA). Given that ideology, one of my breakout's next season will likely be Garrett Mock. The big right-hander was drafted in the third round from the University of Houston in 2003, where he had left after his sophomore season. Mock is a sinkerballer with stuff similar to Ben Petrick, a player on many breakout lists before 2005.

      In his first four starts of the season, Mock was not a very good pitcher. In 23.1 innings, he allowed 19 earned runs, 33 hits and four homers. True to form, he still had a good K/BB of 20/4, but teamed with his other numbers, things were not looking good. But starting with his last April start -- his only double-digit strikeout performance of the season -- Mock has turned his season around. In 90.1 innings since those first four, Mock has a 3.39 ERA, just 8 homers allowed, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio over five (76/15).

      Arizona was formerly a farm system set up for pitchers to fail, with hitter's stadiums in the Cal, Texas and PCL Leagues. The organization made a good decision moving to the Southern League this year, and while it might not be helping Zeringue (.258/.293/.355), it's sure to help the next decent pitching prospect this organization tries to develop. And in my mind, it's sure to help harness a big breakout in 2006 from Garret Mock.

      Note: There is suddenly lots on the Internet that I've found about Mock. First, Chris Kline of Baseball America did an interview with the big right-hander as the site's Daily Dish. Also, I recently stumbled across a beautiful site in calleaguers.com, in which Garrett Mock is scouted in a very detailed fashion.

    • ADAM LIND (LF/1B, TOR): For some reason, Lind has become one of my favorite prospects in minor league baseball. Lacking any trace of athleticism, Lind has been very respectable in the Florida State League this year, showing the potential for more. His .288/.351/.401 line wouldn't stop you on the street or drop your jaw, but when a few of those 25 doubles start going over the fence, he just might. With Aaron Hill graduating, Lind is the offensive player to be watched in this system, and I think the Eastern League is going to bring big things next season. Looking at Lind I see him becoming like two Rangers offensively: first David Dellucci, who hit 25 doubles and just 6 HR between A+ and AA at 22, but then twenty homers the next season. Also, Michael Young's .313/.392/.428 line from Dunedin in 1999 caught my eye, as it is so similar to Lind, who I could see hitting 60 extra-base hits in the Majors, like Young did last year.

      The caveat with Lind is that he doesn't have the versatility like Dellucci or the forgiving position like Young, and since both of those players took about three years to develop, the Blue Jays are going to need to have patience. Rather, Lind has proven to be -- according to Batter's Box -- pretty inadequate in left field. He very well may shift to first base next year, certainly putting him two steps behind both aforementioned Rangers. But I do believe that Lind is worth notice, and that he can become something maybe even greater than those two Rangers...maybe someone Toronto fans remember more vividly: Paul Molitor.


  • DON'T FORGET QUITE YET -- Rick Ankiel is currently riding a seven game hitting streak that dates back to June. The Swing have been careful with their tender ace-turned-slugger of late, playing him in the DH spot and pinch running for him late in games. Once his recent injury is healed -- and it's nothing serious -- Ankiel will go back into learning the centerfield positon.

    But what the Cardinals have seen from their troubled player has to be comforting. During this seven-game streak he's hit .417/.500/.708, with an extra-base hit in four of those games. He also has struck out just three times while walking four, a peripheral you would expect from his 2000 playoff performance, not as a hitter.

    Sooner or later the Cardinals are going to have to challenge Ankiel seriously, rather than constantly babying him given a dark past. Ankiel's age cannot be overlooked, and a trip to the Florida State League might do him well. But, consider stage one of this experiment a success: somewhere, Michael Jordan is jealous.

  • THE SHORTER STARS -- Recently, I have received e-mails on the two early stars of short-season baseball: Sergio Pedroza (Pioneer) and Jeff Bianchi (AZL). In honor of Bianchi raising his average to .500 yesterday -- now 30/60 according to Kevin Goldstein -- I thought I would sum up my comments in this space.

    Pedroza was the Dodgers third-round pick from Cal State Fullerton, a pick that likely satisfied both Logan White and Paul DePodesta. During his first two seasons as a Titan, Pedroza hit about .330/.405/.530, before having a big season with 16 home runs. He has now become the star of the Pioneer League with 23 hits, four home runs and six walks in 46 at-bats. But, what I told the person who e-mailed me is, Pedroza's PL sample-size is the wrong one to look at.

    College hitters are supposed to dominate short-season baseball, and if you'd like, I could give you a million hitters who have done so en route to flaming out. But, my interest was what had Pedroza done against college baseball's best in his final season -- against the top of the heap. What I found was that Pedroza had 91 at-bats against Boyd Nation's top 20 teams, and he had done very well. In those games, Pedroza hit .275/.405/.670 with 11 home runs, 15 walks and 30 strikeouts. And there, my friends, is a scouting report. Expect Pedroza's contact skills to decline at more advanced levels, and that -- not his power, which is RF worthy -- to hold him back.

    As far as Bianchi goes, his breakout is more impressive, even given the context of an easier league. Bianchi was drafted out of high school, so at very worst, his .500/.558/.883 line is coming against people his old age or older. Bianchi is showing power, with 12 extra-base hits in 60 at-bats, and patience, with ten walks. He was considered by many to be an overdraft, and possibly would have fallen to Kansas City in the third round. But, something must be said that the Royals scouting staff fell in love with Bianchi, and that the organization was afraid to not draft him.

    At this point, using John Sickels' scale, both are probably C+ prospects, with Bianchi currently a bit higher. Wait to judge Pedroza until he's playing in Vero Beach (Update: He's one level closer,as a reader reports Pedroza will try full season ball in the SAL), and simply enjoy that for the rest of this year, the Royals scouting staff will probably be patting themselves on the back.

  • MY FIRST DRAFT RECAP -- Now is also an appropriate time for an update on this June's first-round picks. I have created a spreadsheet of all the players in the first round that have signed, and how they are doing thus far. Let's get to the table first, and then we'll have some notes on it:

    Name	     League	AB/IP	AVE/ERA
    Zimmerman      EL*	         57	0.607
    Braun	      SAL*	15	0.467
    Romero	      ^NYPL	NA	NA
    Tulowitzki     CAL	         34	0.594
    Townsend       NYPL	1.0	0.00
    McCutchen      GCL	         42	0.916
    Bruce	      GCL	         38	0.643
    Snyder	      APPY	17	1.076
    Crowe	      SAL*	30	0.742
    Broadway       CAR	         20.2	2.61
    Volstad	      GCL	         14.0	2.57
    Henry	      GCL	         53	0.858
    Carillo	      CAL	         7.1	1.23
    Mayberry       NWL	         77	0.617
    Pawelek	      AZL	         8.2	0.00
    Pennington     MID	         74	0.773
    Thompson       GCL	         6.0	13.50
    Ellsbury       NA	         NA	NA
    Bogusevic      NA	         NA	NA
    Garza	      APPY	19.2	3.66
    Devine	      SOU*	4.0	0.00
    Rasmus	      APPY	68	0.787
    Marceaux       NYPL	14.1	9.42
    Greene	      NYPL	22	0.838

    Note: A * after the league means that the player has already dominated a previous level, and has been promoted. In Ricky Romero's case, the carot indicates he has been assigned, but has not thrown.

    A few notes:


      *** Ryan Zimmerman might not look too impressive at the top, but he has been wonderful. Originally assigned to the South Atlantic League, Zimmerman took four games to prove it a mistake, going 8/17 with five extra-base hits before the Nats decided to promote him to AA. After starting his AA career 6/21 with two doubles, Zimmerman has gone into a 6/36 slump. OK, so playoff roster expectations were a bit lofty, but Zimmerman has a legit 2006 ETA, which is more than most offensive draftees can say.

      *** The other dynamite pick has been Joey Devine, who cruised through the Carolina League in five innings before earning a promotion. With a bullpen in shreds, expect the Braves to try and get Ryan Wagner-like dividends with Devine this season. If his scoreless streak extends about 6-11 more innings, they will have to be thinking about another promotion.

      *** It's really too early to be down, but early disappointments have included John Mayberry, Aaron Thompson and Jacob Marceaux. Mayberry should be doing a Pedroza or Stephen Head (10 XBH in 37 AB) impression, but instead has really struggled. Many considered the Texas selection a reach, and they could certainly end up disappointed. Both Marlins pitchers have ERAs over nine, with Marceaux especially disappointing considering he is out of college. I thought Thompson was a reach -- I liked HS pitchers Roe and Atilano better -- but Marceaux should be good value. Have patience.

      *** First five of these players to make the Majors, in order: Devine, Cesar Carillo (read Ducksnorts' review!), Zimmerman, Lance Broadway, Trevor Crowe.


    Any early impressions welcome on this draft class.

  • LUCK GOING WELLS -- Many of the names on Kevin Goldstein's recent Prospect Hot Sheet will be in my midseason top 75. Some of the few that aren't (Janssen, Lindsay) I don't know much about. But, the exception to that is Jared Wells. A big San Diego right-hander drafted out of Junior College, Wells has been solid if unspectacular in his short minor league career. His strikeout rate has never been what you hoped, and that was all that was holding him back from being a very good pitching prospect.

    Currently, Wells is trying to become that big pitching prospect without the strikeout rate being there. In his last four starts, spanning a whopping 32.1 innings, Wells has allowed just one run. He's also only struck out 21 batters, which is just fair, no matter how impressive five walks allowed are. What has been best for Jared, who had a 10+ H/9 last year, is giving up just nineteen hits. And just like that, Wells' star is rising.

    But in the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend." During those four starts, Wells has had a BABIP of .200, almost reminiscent of Ryan Franklin in Seattle early this season. In fact, Franklin (with a 3.92 ERA and 6.62 K/9 for a career in the minors) works as a very good comparison to Wells. Both are innings-eaters (Wells has had just 2 starts this year under 6 IP) that are very dependent on their defense. Wells has a 1.41 GB/FB this year, but has been inconsistent on a start-by-start basis in getting the ball down.

    Ryan Franklin did not pitch a full season in the Majors until he was 28 years old. He spent his time in the minors, collecting up the same solid-at-best numbers that Jared Wells has. These types of pitchers are almost entirely dependent on luck, and while Wells is in a good stretch now, expect that ERA to get back over 3.50 by the end of the season.

    Personally, I'd take Sean Thompson in that system before Wells any day.

  • WTNYJuly 11, 2005
    My Kind of All-Stars
    By Bryan Smith

    With Delmon Young among the three Americans on base, a grand slam was all that separated the U.S. from their opponents in the final inning of the Futures Game. Given that opportunity, George Brett had no choice but to send Kevin Frandsen to the plate. Kevin who, you ask?

    Despite being a second baseman that tore up the Cal League before a recent promotion, that was the disappointed question in the minds of thousands yesterday. They were expecting speedster Marcus Sanders, or Eric Patterson, or Dustin Pedroia to back-up Josh Barfield at second base. Instead, we were left with a 12th round pick lacking of any star potential.

    Four singles. Two from Andy LaRoche, one infield single from mL home run leader Brandon Wood, and one (of course) from Delmon Young. That's all the United States could manage against the World staff that Willie Hernandez beautifully controlled. And he did just that right up to Adam Loewen's forced 1-2-3 double play to end the game.

    Through two innings, it looked like a pitching duel on both sides. After struggling in his Tiger debut last week, Justin Verlander began his first Comerica Park start well. With four fastballs to lead it off -- all between 95-98 mph -- Verlander retired Mariner top-of-the-order hitters Rafael Betancourt and Shin-Soo Choo. Both an impressive opposite field double by Kendry and a Nelson Cruz pop out were at-bats that started with Verlander's nice high 70s breaking ball and ended with 96 mph fastballs.

    After Verlander, the World sent WTNY favorite Francisco Liriano to the mound. The big left-hander impressed, throwing twelve pitches en route to a 1-2-3 first inning. True to form, Liriano threw just one pitch under 85 mph (and 84 at that), and two fastballs under 96. Also validating his scouting report, half of Liriano's pitches were balls. This guy should be in Minnesota's bullpen at the end of the season, as very few southpaws even in the Majors can throw 89 mph sliders, as Liriano showed against B.J. Upton.

    Unfortunately sandwiched between Liriano in the first and Edison Volquez in the bottom of the second was Anthony Lerew. Not Baseball America's first choice to attend the game, Liriano did struggle a bit in his one inning of work. With a quick delivery, Lerew struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start his inning using fastballs at 93-94 mph. He then walked Miguel Montero on four pitches, and gave up a single to William Bergolla on another fastball. As a side note, I liked Bergolla more than I thought I would, but he looked completely fooled by Lerew's nice curve, and seems to be a dead-red fastball hitter. With two runners on base, Lerew forced Hernan Ibibarren and Luis Montanez into ground balls, ending the inning.

    Then came Volquez, who I was very excited to see, after Jamey Newberg has assured me that Edison should be considered Rangers prospect #1b. I have had a hard time believing that -- I'm a big John Danks and Thomas Diamond fan -- as I have both ahead of Volquez currently. That didn't really change after Sunday, though I did find out the hype is probably not going away. Delmon Young singled on the first pitch Volquez threw, a 96 mph fastball that the Rays super-prospect hammered up the middle. It seems the 96 fastball was a bit of an overthrow for Edison, as he did not top 94 in his six fastballs after that. That included a Jeremy Hermida fly out on three straight fastballs, an Andy LaRoche single on a hit and run, and a Ryan Garko double play. There is no question his fastball is heavy, and his breaking ball is good, but I will warn that the Volquez talk is a bit overdone right now.

    Following Volquez was Zach Jackson, a player of completely different caliber, a southpaw with the most interesting of deliveries. It is an extremely hyper delivery, with a huge right leg kick before he throws. Jackson mixed in a 90-94 mph fastball, a mid 80s cutter and high 70s breaking ball. I liked Jackson, despite allowing a Shin-Soo Choo home run on one of his cutters. Choo continues to impress me whenever I see him, despite falling behind both Chris Snelling and Jeremy Reed on the M's organizational depth chart.

    The World squad countered with Yusmeiro Petit in the bottom half of the inning, as the big Venezuelan right-hander went throw the inning 1-2-3. I didn't exactly see the reasons that Petit strikes out so many hitters on Sunday, but his arsenal that never left the 81-90 mph range did prove effective. Although, there are easier lineups to face than Josh Barfield, Chris Young and Kevin Thompson.

    Fire was the theme of the fourth, as the inning featured two of the game's hardest throwers in Joel Zumaya and Juan Morillo. The hometown Zumaya probably created the most buzz, especially after striking out Miguel Montero on a 99 mph fastball. In many ways reminiscent of Jose Capellan's performance at the game last year, Zumaya threw just one curve in his twelve pitch inning, the rest fastballs from 95-99 mph. He is going to be a good one -- I'm not doubting that -- but Joel must learn to trust his secondary pitches more to stay in the starting rotation.

    Before Morillo was Scott Mathieson, as Willie Hernandez decided the final four innings would be split evenly among six pitchers. So, Mathieson drew the tough job of B.J. Upton and Conor Jackson in his six-pitch, 2/3 inning performance. Mathieson nearly added Delmon Young to that list of hitters, but was helped by Rafael Betancourt going past the second base bag to throw out Upton. Betancourt's defense looked fantastic in the one day, and while he's still about the third or fourth best shortstop prospect in the system, could definitely have a moment in the sun at some point.

    Following Mathieson was Morillo, a Rockie relief prospect that began his day with two 99 mph fastballs. He finished off Delmon with a 96 mph fastball that was very heavy, prompting Young to ground out to second base. In the fifth inning, Morillo finished his two batter outing against Jeremy Hermida, striking out the Marlin outfielder on six pitches. He finally threw a breaking ball on his tenth pitch, striking out Hermida, who had seen five straight fastballs from 93-98.

    In between Morillo was when the World added insurance to their 1-0 lead. Without looking back into my records, I still remember not being enthused by John Danks' rocky half-inning last year. The left-hander who left that impression on me this year was Paul Maholm, the Pirates former first-round selection. Maholm faced five batters in his Futures Game stint, and recorded just one out, via a Hanley Ramirez sacrifice bunt that he almost beat out. Besides that, he had Hernan Ibibarren single on the second pitch, he hit Luis Montanez on the second, and walked Javi Herrera on six pitches. His first seven pitches were all 89-91 mph fastballs, none of which were particularly effective. He finally decided to show his decent curve in the middle of Herrera's at-bat, throwing three balls with it, including a 3-2 pitch that would lead the bases. After that, Justin Huber doubled en route to his MVP award on a second pitch fastball.

    Luckily the book was closed on Maholm after that, as Chris Lambert came in and saved his game. There was no pitcher at the game that increased my interest in him more than Lambert, who struck out one, walked another, and then ended the inning on an infield pop out. During that time, Lambert showed confidence both in a change up and breaking pitch, as he did not throw a fastball until his fourth pitch, after recording the strikeout. My one concern would be his fastball command, as he threw three balls in five attempts with the 90-94 mph pitch. Despite his recent struggles in AA, I like Lambert, and it appears he is a fastball tune-up away from becoming the club's best prospect.

    Back to the bottom half of the inning, where we already have seen Morillo strike out Hermida. Just six pitches into the inning, Willie Hernandez brought in Fernando Nieve. On a first pitch fastball, Andy LaRoche smacked a 93 mph heater right back up the middle, nearly hitting Nieve in the process. After seeing his two singles, there is no doubt in my mind that LaRoche is a fastball hitter. Nieve would come back to force Ryan Garko into a ground out and strike out Josh Barfield on a good looking slider. No complaints on Nieve that showed three pitches and good control of his 92-94 mph fastball.

    Good things from Troy Patton in the top of the sixth inning, as he showed all three of his pitches against William Bergolla to start. A steal from last June, the southpaw started the inning with a 93 mph fastball, the only velocity the pitch hit in four throws. He also showed an impressive change in the dirt, and forced a ground out from Bergolla on a mid 70s, loopy curve. Hernan Iribarren followed that up with a strike out on a change up, which Patton had previously set up with a fastball and two nice curves. If Lambert impressed me the most, there is no doubt that Patton came a close second.

    But for some reason George Brett decided he would go all Willie Hernandez on us, and try to split the pitching up equally. Bad decision. James Johnson was exactly what the world as looking for, the right-handed version of Maholm, with a fastball that didn't top 91 and some unimpressive breaking stuff. You know a pitcher's stuff is shaky when in just six pitches he has given up two singles and a bloop double on a 3-0 count. While Johnson came back to strike out the MVP Justin Huber to end the inning, the damage to the American's chances and Johnson's resume.

    With just six outs to go and second-hand choice Fausto Carmona beginning the bottom of the sixth, it was time for the Americans to come back. They didn't. Chris Young, one of my favorite prospects, bounced out to third on Carmona's second pitch, a 94 mph fastball. Young showed some fantastic speed getting done the line, though, nearly beating out the throw from Jose Bautista. It was too bad Lastings Milledge didn't show the same effort on his ground out, as Milledge didn't run hard down the line, but still had a close play on a tough play by Hanley Ramirez. The good part about Milledge was that on his first pitch -- a 95 mph heater -- he swung early. The bat speed is there.

    And just like that, with four fastballs, Carmona was out and the Americans would have to amass a rally with Anibal Sanchez on the mound. Sanchez has been gaining serious steam as a prospect after an amazing April followed by the Carolina League All-Star Game, where he apparently shined. Now in AA, Sanchez did show big league stuff despite some rough results. Brandon Wood hit the first pitch he saw up the middle, where Hanley Ramirez had a tough play (Betancourt would have made it) and could not throw out the minor league home run leader. But Sanchez came back and struck out another recent high-A promotee, Daric Barton, on an at-bat that included three 94 mph fastballs and two 86-88 mph change ups.

    In what would be their last chance, the World almost tacked onto their lead in the top of the seventh. To continue to show off a weaker pitching staff, the Americans brought in Travis Bowyer to finish the game. And despite having been the International League's best closer this year, Bowyer struggled. He began impressively, striking out his first batter with a fastball that got up to 98 mph. But the velocity did not impress Jose Bautista, who singled, nor Russ Martin, who drew a seven pitch walk. And like that, fourteen pitches into his inning, Bowyer still had not thrown a fastball. And he should have abandoned the pitch more against William Bergolla, who watched a 99 mph pitch go by before hitting his second single on another Bowyer fastball. But with the bases loaded, the Twin came back to strike out Iribarren and force Luis Montanez into a fly out.

    And, of course, the Americans would come back in the bottom half of the seventh and lose the game on Frandsen's double play. The bases did get loaded on three walks, two from Anibal Sanchez and one from Adam Loewen. I liked Loewen more than Sanchez from what I saw that inning, as the big Oriole southpaw profiles to be a reliever down the road. He threw four fastballs to Scott Moore, the last of which the ex-Tiger nearly doubled on...though Javi Herrera tracked it down. And he also showed a good, high 70s breaking pitch that accounted for two of the four Chris Iannetta balls.

    And like that, the anti-climatic game was over. I was left with good impressions from Lambert, Patton and Bergolla, and bad ones from Maholm, Ryan Garko and James Johnson. And while the game had not been the most exciting one I've ever seen, I was able to close my fake-scout's eyes at the end of the night a happy man.

    WTNYJuly 06, 2005
    Minor League Notes (7/6/05)
    By Bryan Smith

    Since I didn't have time for a normal full-length article today, I wanted to post a notes column, and I will be adding to it as the day goes on.

  • Normally, when one of my favorite prospects receives word of a promotion, I'm ecstatic. But instead the recent Yankees decision to move Melky Cabrera to AAA leaves me confused and worried. This was not someone that dominated AA by any stretch of the imagination, hitting just .267/.310/.413 with the Trenton Thunder. Granted this was a player hitting just .214 on April 26, I don't believe Melky was showing AAA-caliber play. But, it appears this may be a situation of him proving me wrong and the Yankees right. Since being moved up to Columbus eight games ago, Cabrera is 11/32 with four walks and five extra-base hits, three of them via the home run. The Yankees plan with their young outfielder is anyone's guess at this point, but with a player as talented as Melky, New York is proving that it's hard to look wrong.
    THURSDAY UPDATE: Melky has apparently impressed New York brass so much that he will be called up today and play centerfield against the Indians. From the Midwest League to the Majors in a little over a year...wow. But sadly for the Yankees, I must say that I don't think Cabrera is going to solve any of their problems. And in case you were wondering, Bernie Williams didn't top the .800 OPS barrier until he was 25.

  • Another prospect favorite, Jon Lester, is starting to really accelerate in the Eastern League. Lester has been absolutely dominant in three of his last four starts, all of which he pitched six innings (7 innings twice, actually) and struck out at least ten AA batters. In those four starts, spanning 22 innings, Lester has allowed just three earned runs while striking out 37 batters. You can bet that if the Red Sox make a big July trade, Jon Lester will be in it. I know if I was an opposing GM, any deal would have to start with him.

    Posted by Bryan at 10:32 a.m. CT

  • After mentioning two of my favorite prospects above, I should also mention two of Rich's favorites that had good weekends. First there is Daric Barton, who was kind enough to give Rich an interview during his hot streak that has him sent to AA. I could tell you how hot, but Kevin Goldstein handles that well in his most recent Prospect Hot Sheet:

    In his last 28 games at high Class A Stockton, Barton reached base by hit or walk a remarkable 68 times, scoring 26 runs and driving in 25 in the process. Promoted to Double-A over the weekend, Barton was initially thought to miss Monday night's game due to a late flight, but he showed up at the ballpark and was intentionally walked in his first plate appearance, so word is getting around.

    Another reason Mr. Lederer went to the recent Quakes-Ports game was to see his long-time favorite, Jered Weaver. Despite disappointing in that game, and for much of his first three starts, Weaver seems to be getting back into his old groove. In his fourth start of the season last night, Weaver pitched five innings with no earned runs, allowing two hits and no walks against seven strikeouts. Granted, Bakersfield isn't exactly a prospect-laden ballclub, but there could not have been a more positive sign for the Angels bonus baby.

    Posted by Bryan at 11:33 a.m. CT

  • This season, I have been lucky enough to come across two of the Midwest League's better pitchers, and a former first-round highly regarded hitter. I've been trying to find a spot for my thoughts ever since, so here goes. First, we have Anthony Swarzak:

    On Sunday, June 5, Anthony Swarzak appeared to be a teenager in over his head. In the course of two innings -- the second and the third -- Swarzak both allowed more earned runs than he had all May, as well as more home runs than he had all season. The problem was, without question, the fastball (or lack thereof) that Anthony displayed. While the Floridian right-hander showed both the ability to keep his change-up down and garner strikeouts with a plus curve, the Clinton Lumberkings got the memo to lay off the slow stuff. Instead, Swarzak often found himself behind in the count, forced to throw strikes...and therefore, fastballs. The problem was that, in his first June start, Swarzak's velocity was down in the 87-88 region. On all three home runs the hitters pulled fastballs, which they had obviously expected, well over the fence. Furthermore, what Baseball America had described as a "tall and...lean frame" has noticeably added some weight. To continue to have the success he enjoyed in May, Swarzak must learn to control his secondary pitches while keeping his velocity in the low 90s.

    Next we have the Midwest League pitcher of April who still has an ERA under 2.00, Sean Gallagher:

    In a system that has been flush with pithcing from even before Kerry Wood, many were surprised when the generally unknown Gallagher dominated like no other Cub prospect in April. Gallagher did so with a bit of increased velocity -- in the 88-92 range -- and the slow, loopy curveball which is his strength. Gallagher's breaking pitch has the potential to be thrown for a strike, and froze enough Kane County Cougars to work as a strikeout pitch too. I found two significant problems when watching Gallagher, the first of which was -- as Michael Lewis would say -- how he looks in blue jeans. On the mound, Sean's delivery and appearance are reminiscent of Bartolo Colon, known best for his substantial weight. Gallagher's other problem is his lack of confidence in a third pitch, as he threw nothing but fastballs and his devastating hook. That could lead to problems in upper levels, but should he develop something else, I would guess he has Josh Fogg-type potential.

    Finally, we have Cubs outfield prospect Ryan Harvey, who is being moved through the system at about the slowest possible pace. Here was my impression:

    Harvey's presence at the plate is intimidating, as his large frame foreshadows the considerable power he has in his bat. Ryan's body is not too big to kick him from the outfield, as he should always have enough speed and certainly enough arm to stick in right. The problem for Harvey will always be contact, as his swing seems to be too long, yielding an all-or-nothing approach. Ryan seemed very similar to Jermaine Dye, so it would be good to expect plenty of good and bad seasons in the future.

    Posted by Bryan at 2:58 p.m. CT

  • Yesterday marked a first for Jose Capellan, as the Brewer flamethrower notched win #1 as a reliever. While most relievers win games after having allowed a run, Capellan did not, as the Sounds pulled out a 2-1 win. In fact, Capellan has not given up a run since becoming a reliever, spanning nine appearances. I wrote about his move a little over two weeks ago, and his success only strengthens my opinion that this will not be a short-term move. In those nine games, Capellan has thrown 14 innings, allowing just nine hits and six walks while striking out 15.

    Jonathan Broxton, the other subject of that article, has not been so lucky in the earned run column. But, in his ten innings as a reliever, Broxton does have better peripherals having allowed just six hits, three walks, and striking out 14 batters. He has allowed one home run coming out of the pen, but it's hard to blame him, as it was against Delmon Young. Look for Broxton's ERA to start coming down as he gets more acclimated with mid-game stints.

    In other news, Bobby Jenks was called up by the White Sox, after having blown just two saves in 21 chances at the AA level. I drew considerable criticsm when I had Jenks ranked as baseball 31st best prospect before the 2004 season, in my first prospect list. But with this call-up, I'm not sure how many of the pitchers I ranked behind him I'd rather have: Joe Blanton (well, one), Gavin Floyd, Travis Blackley, Chin-Hui Tsao, John Maine, Adam Loewen, Jeff Francis (my other surprise inclusion on that list, and number two), Merkin Valdez, Denny Bautista, Ryan Wagner and Blake Hawkesworth.

    Posted by Bryan at 3:39 p.m. CT

  • While working on my midseason top 75 prospect list -- which I promise to have soon -- I created some top positional lists. I thought I might give my top 12 catching prospect list today as a sort of teaser for things to come. Enjoy...

    1. Brian McCann (ATL): Huge power potential, walks enough, great contact skills. Incumbent atop this list.

    2. Russ Martin (LAD): Most complete catcher in the minors. You know DePo loves that .453 OBP.

    3. George Kottaras (SD): Great plate discipline, and gap power. In my opinion, Kottaras is the one Cal League catcher on this list not being especially helped by his surroundings. Question is whether those doubles will ever turn to HR.

    4. Jeff Mathis (ANA): Hitting in AAA, but you have to wonder how much of that is because of the Salt Lake atmosphere.

    5. Jarrod Saltalmacchia (ATL): I love him right now, and I think he will play even better when he gets away from that current stadium.

    6. Miguel Montero (AZ): Early favorite for the Jeremy Reed/Ian Kinsler award, Montero's breakout is beyond unforeseen. The Cal League is helping him, but some of this is real. I'll remain a skeptic for now.

    7. Kurt Suzuki (OAK): I'm not as high on Suzuki as most, but his dedication to discipline is a major plus. His defense is apparently awful, and I'm not sure his bat is enough to forgive that.

    8. Neil Walker (PIT): Isn't having the results of some of these players, but the potential is there. Better catchers than him have had worse ISOs (.138) in their first full seasons.

    9. Dioner Navarro (LAD): His age keeps him somewhat high on this list, but I'm just not sure he'll ever be much more than league average. He's walking more, but a .138 ISO in Las Vegas?

    10. Kelly Shoppach (BOS): In the wrong organization, as he could be starting for a half dozen sub-.500 teams. His power and discipline are both huge strengths and are enough to carry the rest of his game that has quite a few weaknesses.

    11. Mike Napoli (ANA): Another with plus plate discipline and plus power. I made the comparison in Spring Training, and I still believe it: Napoli is Aaron Rowand offensively.

    12. John Jaso (TB): With Chris Shelton and Ryan Doumit graduating, Jaso is the next to hear Matt LeCroy comparisons for the next three seasons.

    Posted by Bryan at 5:25 p.m. CT

  • WTNYJune 30, 2005
    The Class of 2006...at BP
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey everyone, I want to point you over to Baseball Prospectus today, where I have an article up. It's my first time at BP, which is pretty exciting, and I was honored to be asked. For that, I would like to thank Will Carroll and Joe Sheehan.

    Anyway, the piece is on five college pitchers that will be in the 2006 draft class that might be on top of some draft boards by themselves. If you don't know much about Andrew Miller, Dallas Buck, Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer and Daniel Bard, I urge you to check it out (though it's premium).

    Finally, big thanks go to Rich and the two BP guys I mentioned for helping me edit the piece. Without them, it would have been impossible. Expect more on the '06 class in this space over the weekend.

    WTNYJune 29, 2005
    System Overviews: TOR, TB
    By Bryan Smith

    With a slow day around Baseball Analysts, I thought I'd take the time and write up a pair of system overviews. Expect me to do this from time to time, and today I'll begin in the American League East.

    TORONTO BLUE JAYS

    Preseason John Sickels Top 10= League, Purcey, Hill, Banks, Rosario, Jackson, Adams, Quiroz, McGowan, Marcum

    Preseason Baseball America Top 10= League, Hill, Quiroz, Rosario, Purcey, Adams, McGowan, Jackson, Banks, Chacin

    It would be impossible to look at the Blue Jays minor league system and say that we foresaw what was going to happen in 2004. They have had an up and down year in the largest of ways, as players like Aaron Hill and Russ Adams have moved on to the Majors, while Brandon League has been awful and Guillermo Quiroz hurt.

    The solace to the system, however, was a great draft in 2004. David Purcey, the club's first round pick last year, has been passed on the organizational depth chart by second pick Zach Jackson, already in AA. While Purcey's BB/9 is way too high, he still is pitching well. Jackson has added a cutter, like Gustavo Chacin did in 2004, and has really taken off this season. Second-round pick Curtis Thigpen, the former Texas backstop, is doing everything well in the Midwest League. Finally, the unsung hero of the class might be third-round pick Adam Lind, who in his age 21 season in the FSL, is hitting .297/.362/.414. If just some of those 22 doubles (in 273 AB) start going over the wall, watch out.

    The other sleeper in the system looks to be Chi-Hung Cheng, the key of the Blue Jay's increased scouting in the Far East. Cheng has been the best prospect on the Lansing Lugnuts this season, and has dominated the Midwest League with a 2.91 ERA and 89 strikeouts in just 77.1 innings. He's one to watch, as raw pitchers don't enter this system very often. In fact, most of the time it's very polished players, which indiactes why the Blue Jays have a glut of B-/C+ pitchers in their system: Izzy Ramirez, Vince Perkins, Jamie Vermilyea, Kurt Isenberg, Shaun Marcum. The head of the polished class is Josh Banks, who has just seven walks (against 74 strikeouts!) in AA this season, but simultaneously has allowed 12 home runs. The lone raw pitcher is Francisco Rosario, a favorite of mine, but a player likely destined for the bullpen.

    Guillermo Quiroz' return is key to this system, as the Blue Jays have hung their backstopping future on his shoulders. Quiroz must get enough repetitions in AAA this year to sustain a full-time Major League role next season, so Toronto fans can stop being forced into watching Gregg Zaun try and play. Quiroz will have some aging hitters to learn from in AAA, as both John Hattig and John-Ford Griffin are hitting with gusto this season. Both 25 years of age, neither profiles to be more than a bench player at the Major League level.

    In conclusion, if the Jays hadn't drafted well last season, the Toronto system wouldn't have a lot at the top. Lucky for them, their first four picks all look to be top ten prospects.

    Current Blue Jays Top Eleven Prospects
    1. Zach Jackson
    2. David Purcey
    3. Dustan McGowan
    4. Francisco Rosario
    5. Josh Banks
    6. Chi-hung Cheng- SLEEPER
    7. Guillermo Quiroz
    8. Adam Lind- SLEEPER
    9. Curtis Thigpen
    10. Shaun Marcum
    11. Brandon League

    TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

    Preseason John Sickels Top Ten= Young, Kazmir, Niemann, Bankston, Orvella, Dukes, Brignac, Hammel, Gathright, Houser

    Preseason Baseball America Top Ten= Young, Kazmir, Gathright, Hammel, Brignac, Houser, Dukes, Orvella, McClung, Bankston

    While graduations have lessened the Devil Rays depth, very few teams have better top fours than the Devil Rays. That, of course, starts at the top with Delmon Young, who is proving to be the best player in the Southern League this season. As if his game was not complete enough, Young will almost surely surpass 40 steals on the season. Expect Delmon to spend the second half of this season playing with B.J. Upton, and for the Devil Rays to show their hand on how they are planning to rebuild this organization.

    Young has been part of a fantastic squad in AA, one in which five of my top ten players have played on. Second on the list is Elijah Dukes, joining Young in the outfield, who has not drawn the usual character complaints this season. The Devil Rays decision between Dukes, Joey Gathright (who I didn't include on this list) and Rocco Baldelli will be an interesting one. They also have some middle infield depth with the breakout of Fernando Cortez, who entered the year with a career .699 OPS, and left the Southern League midseason with insane (for him) .333/.377/.420 numbers.

    Wes Bankston was moved up from the California League about the same time Cortez was moved to the Durham Bulls. Bankston made a mockery of A-ball in 62 at-bats, and now has hit eleven extra base hits in his first 87 AA at-bats. Bankston's breakout this season should allow for the midseason trade of Aubrey Huff. In that trade, the Devil Rays will likely demand pitching, as their system doesn't have much of it. The most legit prospect highest up the later is Jason Hammel, who has a 3.00 ERA in 10 Southern League starts. The 6-6 Hammel might be the least known of the Biscuit stars, but he certainly will be starting in Tampa before long.

    The other top ten pitchers in this system are 2004 first-round pick Jeff Niemann joined by southpaw James Houser. Both have had some arm troubles in the past, but while Houser seems to be over his, Niemann's continue. If you ask me, I expect Niemann to join the Angel Guzman and Anthony Reyes always sore club, bouncing on and off the DL for a long time. Houser is pitching better than his ERA (4.20) indicates in the Midwest League. Houser is backed up on offense by John Jaso, a powerful catcher (tops in the system), ace Andy Sonnanstine, and Reid Brignac.

    For kicks, I have tried to create the Devil Rays 2007 lineup, considering the moves that I would make:

    1. Carl Crawford- LF
    2. Jorge Cantu- 2B
    3. B.J. Upton- 3B (sooner or later, we have to accept it)
    4. Delmon Young- RF
    5. Jonny Gomes- DH
    6. Wes Bankston- 1B
    7. Elijah Dukes- CF (once Rocco proves to be healthy, deal him)
    8. Fernando Cortez- SS (maybe)
    9. Toby Hall- C (hanging on by a thread)

    They aren't far from being a contender, ladies and gentleman.

    Current Devil Rays Top Ten Prospects
    1. Delmon Young
    2. Elijah Dukes
    3. Jeff Niemann
    4. Wes Bankston- SLEEPER
    5. Jason Hammel
    6. John Jaso- SLEEPER
    7. James Houser
    8. Fernando Cortez
    9. Reid Brignac
    10. Andy Sonnanstine

    If you'd like to see any more system overviews in the future, or have any questions about these two, please indicate within the comments. Also, please check back tomorrow for a few surprises.

    WTNYJune 28, 2005
    The Graduates
    By Bryan Smith

    As I piece together a midseason prospect list, I wanted to pay homage to the players that have moved beyond lists like mine. My during-season policy is not to wait for AB and IP benchmarks to be surpassed, but simply to project which players will grow out of their prospect shoes.

    For guys like Tony Giarratano, Prince Fielder and Jeff Fiorentino, cups of coffee have been just that. For others, as Kyle Davies can attest, sometimes a short-term expirament becomes much more than that. So, below I have ranked 23 players that will not be eligible for my midseason list. These players come from the ESPN newcomer list, so players that debuted before the 2005 season will not appear below.

    Instead, you'll read about the future for these players that are already beginning to make a difference in their organization's W-L column. Still, as young as they are, there is room for projection, and as always, a little ranking. They are not ranked in terms of projected career value, that's just too tough, but instead how I think they will impact their organization in the near future (think pre-free agency, or even pre-arbitration).

    1. Kyle Davies (ATL): 4.75 ERA in 41.2 IP- Dan Meyer, at this point, is probably trying to get back to playing long toss. And there isn't anything long about Jose Capellan's outings, as he was most recently moved to the bullpen. That leaves Kyle Davies atop the 2004 Braves pitching prospect trio, where before the season, many outlets had him at the bottom. This is just another example of why the Braves are smarter than us all, and why having faith in their braintrust is always a smart idea. But after beginning his career with three scoreless outings in his first four appearances, Davies finished the month of June off disastrously. Interleague play did not do well for the Brave right-hander, who gave up a whopping fifteen earned runs in just 14 innings pitched. His other bad June start was in between two of those interleague performances, on three days rest, when the Cincinnati Reds also hit the Brave hard. Kyle certainly bears watching, as that half/half split is one ugly trend.

    2. Robinson Cano (NYY): .764 OPS in 174 AB- I was always a seller of Cano's future when he was in the minor leagues, thinking his career would top out at the season he is having now. Oops. At 22, Cano has adjusted to life in the Majors -- on the game's largest stage -- quite well. Swinging from the left side, Cano has slugged right-handers at a .500 clip this season, and in the month of June, his stats were .308/.344/.505. Any suggestion that the Yankees should make offers at the Jose Vidros and Orlando Hudsons of the world do not make sense, as Cano has already become one of the better 2B in the American League. Right now, the critique would be consistency, as Cano has tended to be a very hot/cold hitter. For example, from May 10 to May 18, Cano went 15/29, but collected just five more hits until June 3. Add a little consistency to a solid game, and Cano will become an elite at his position.

    3. Huston Street (OAK): 1.59 ERA in 34 IP- Only a hamstring injury could slow Street down, the former Texas closer that went from the College World Series to Major League closer at an unparalleled rate. His latest injury has sidelined him since June 14, when he had not allowed a run in six appearances. In fact, down the road it will look mighty impressive that Street did not allow a run in June. The right-hander seems to succeed on two things: his fearless nature and a unique arm angle. Chad Cordero in Washington is only proof that an experienced college closer makes a damn good draft pick, as those type of players are not afraid to pitch to anyone. Street has shown this nature, and opposing hitters have not enjoyed the results. His arm angle could be a cause for concern, as the delivery looks to put stress on his shoulder. But, that's purely speculative, and I'll be knocking on wood that Huston closes for a long time.

    4. Ervin Santana (LAA): 4.71 ERA in 27.2 IP- Once a top pitching prospect, Santana was all but forgotten after a 2004 riddled with injuries. The electric right-hander is back in a big way, drawing the tough job of replacing Kelvim Escobar. Santana has done a pretty good job at that, and the fact that he has the club's second-worst ERA is more indicative of the staff's success than anything else. Santana's numbers are a bit skewed by two disasters, first in his debut against the Indians (6 ER in 4 IP), and then in Interleague play against the Marlins (7ER in 2.2 IP). Besides that, Santana has shut out the Chicago White Sox, and held the Dodgers and Nationals to just two combined runs in 13 innings.

    5. Aaron Hill (TOR): .917 OPS in 119 AB- His bat has been good since college, but this good? Good enough to handle third base full-time, no questions asked? Nah, I wouldn't have guessed that from the career sub-800 OPS entering the season. But these are the type of statistical anamolies that can happen when you strike out just 10 times in 123 at-bats: a .375 BABIP. That isn't sustainable, obviously, but even normalized to the league average BABIP, Hill is still a .280 hitter. I still don't believe he's a third baseman, but if the Blue Jays trade Hudson and move Russ Adams to second, that's one good shortstop.

    6. Tim Stauffer (SD): 4.62 ERA in 50.2 IP- The player in last year's Futures Game that impressed me the most, Stauffer has looked good in a pitcher's park in which it's hard not to. But the ERA split between home and away has not indicated that PETCO is doing wonders, so Stauffer's rookie season looks to be pretty legitimate. He's walking more hitters than he should, given his lackluster stuff, but those calls will come with experience. And that he should get at the back of a very good Padre rotation, one that would put the rookie in the bullpen (or worse) for the playoffs, if the season ended today.

    7. Scott Olsen (FLA): 1.59 ERA in 5.2 IP- Now that's the way to start a pro career! Sure, it's hard to look bad against the Devil Rays, and he walked three hitters, but it is one good start. And hopefully, his performance will help with future confidence, allowing Olsen to become the player he has projected to become. I'm not so sure the Marlins will keep him up -- depends on the legitimacy of Rosenthal's Burnett-is-gone rumors -- but more performances like his debut would do him well. And finally, correct me if I'm wrong, but is 60 strikes in 89 pitches a pretty good ratio in a first start, or what?

    8. Dan Johnson (OAK): .753 OPS in 84 AB- I've been on the Johnson for DH spot bandwagon for awhile now, and less-than-100 AB into his first season, the 2004 PCL MVP is paying dividends. Johnson is certainly playing better than Scott Hatteberg and the 2005 version of Erubiel Durazo, one of which will likely be dealt if Billy Beane has it his way. The one critique in the first baseman's game this far into the season is power, though he did hit his first home run last Tuesday. Currently in an 11/27 groove, Johnson has all but taken a full-time position.

    9. Hayden Penn (BAL): 6.07 ERA in 29.2 IP- First of all, kudos to the Orioles for handling Penn correctly. While promoting the red-hot Penn might have been premature with John Maine in the International League, it hasn't really come back to haunt the Orioles. They also have kept close watch on Penn's pitch counts, only twice letting him go into triple-digits, and never over 103. But, Penn has been getting hit up of late, with five home runs allowed in his last three starts. Sooner or later, if the ship is not righted, swapping Maine and Penn might be in the best interest of everyone involved. No matter what, Hayden is one fantastic talent.

    10. Edwin Encarnacion (CIN): 0/6 in 2005- He may get sent down again before being up for good, but Encarnacion should lose his prospect status by year's end. I have little doubt that the Reds will pawn off Joe Randa, which will put an end to the correct decision to sign the aging third baseman. Randa was simply a placeholder, and is the type of player that clubs like Minnesota would love to give a pitching prospect for. Encarnacion looks to be a very solid player -- not a superstar -- and should begin ending the Reds 3B curse next season. Hopefully his presence will coincide with a revamped Reds team, as besides signings like the Reds, Cincinnati is an organization being run into the ground.

    11. Brandon McCarthy (CHW): 8.40 ERA in 15 IP- After watching McCarthy pitch twice in the Majors this season, I do believe he can be an effective Major League pitcher. At the same time, I understand why his ERA (5.48) was so high in the International League, despite leading the lead in strikeouts (81 K in 64 IP) when he was called up. The book on McCarthy has changed very little since coming to the Majors, except an abandonment of the control (8 BB in 15 IP) that was so good in the minors (18 BB in 64 IP). Few pitchers are as good as McCarthy when the count has two strikes; but many times, that is the problem. Brandon will need to gain confidence in a third pitch, as his fastball doesn't seem to be fast enough, and his curveball has the tendency to hang early in the count. Put those together, and you know why the young right-hander has given up 16 HR in his seventy-nine total innings this season.

    12. Justin Huber (KC): 3/12 in 2005- Will the Royals find consistent at-bats for Huber, or will he suffer the same fate at Prince Fielder? Luckily for Justin, while blocked by a good first baseman like Prince, there is an open DH spot with his name on it. Huber put himself back on the map this year when the Royals correctly decided to end the expirament with using him behind the plate. He'll probably be an emergency/third catcher for the rest of his career, but from now on, the only balls he'll have to worry about catching are those when Sweeney gets tired of playing the field.

    13. Mark Teahen (KC): .674 OPS in 171 AB- One down, one to go. Billy Butler, the Royals best prospect, was moved from the hot corner following a recent injury. Butler has begun playing in the outfield at High Desert, different from where I had him projected (1B). Now, Teahen must worry about the Royals' golden boy, Alex Gordon, who will likely be sent to the Texas League when he signs. Will Gordon move to the outfield, as well, or will Teahen's bat force the Royals to say "Uncle"? Teahen needs to get that OPS around .750 by the end of the season to have a legitimate argument, because Angel Berroa is just not hitting enough to normalize KC's left side production.

    14. Kelly Johnson (ATL): .755 OPS in 77 AB- A one-time shortstop prospect, Johnson found himself this year (like Meyer, Espinosa, Montanez, etc) in the International League as an outfielder. Unlike the other guys mentioned, Johnson showed big-time power in AAA, and has replaced Raul Mondesi in the everyday lineup. It was a genius move for the Braves to stick with Johnson even after an awful debut, when he began the season 1/30. But since then Johnson has been on fire, and may have landed himself a full-time spot for year's to come. At this point, trading Chipper Jones is probably what's best for the franchise.

    15. Tadahito Iguchi (CHW): .778 OPS in 237 AB- The 'Gooch', as he is known in Chicago, would be higher on this list if not for his age. He also would be higher if he was running like he did in Japan, where he twice led the league in stolen bases. Iguchi has attributed his lack of running to the success of the hitters behind him, but that thought really only applies to Frank Thomas. If Iguchi has the potential to steal a lot of bases at a fantastic rate, he should be doing it no matter how many home runs Paul Konerko is hitting. But, this could also be a farce similar to the belief that Ichiro could hit home runs, 'if he wanted to.' Oh, please.

    16. Andy Sisco (KC): 2.35 ERA in 38.1 IP- My guess is that many in the sabermetric community will call for Sisco to move back into the rotation this offseason. He once was a starter, has dominated at the Major League level, so ergo should become the Royal ace, right? Wrong. Sisco has found a niche in Kansas City, pitching with more velocity than ever, and has been the go-to reliever for two managers. I'm not sure if the Royals future is a closer-by-committee, but a L/R tandem could certainly be in the works.

    17. Ambiorix Burgos (KC): 4.44 ERA in 24.1 IP- Ok, I have written about this guy enough. But what I will say is that a serious shoulder injury would be a shame, because this kid was figuring out Major League hitters on the fly.

    18. Chris Ray (BAL): 1.42 ERA in 6.1 IP- His velocity is there, and Ray offers a big arsenal and one fantastic breaking pitch. The Orioles announcers have compared Ray to Goose Gossage, without the Goose-intimidation. For the Orioles to not re-sign B.J. Ryan this offseason would be wrong, but to keep Ryan and Ray as the end-of-game pitchers for a long time would be fantastic. In basketball, a great defense makes for a good offense. In baseball, a great 8th-9th combination makes the starters look a lot better. Expect Baltimore to begin proving that.

    19. J.J. Hardy (MIL): .549 OPS in 150 AB- Was I right about Hardy after all? Is his performance really putting quiet to the hate mails I got in comparing Hardy to Royce Clayton, or simply putting them on hiatus? Well, I guess you could look at Hardy's numbers and see improvements in his month-by-month OPS: 462, 596, 612. Still, Hardy has been a disaster at the plate, still playing with decent consistency thanks only to plate discipline and good work in the field. Should I mention that Clayton had a .589 OPS in his first full season?

    20. Brad Thompson (STL): 2.08 ERA in 21.2 IP- The unsung hero of the starter-turned-reliever story, Thompson has had as much success as anyone. The reason I didn't include him in my story on the issue is that Thompson is different that the Capellans and Broxtons of the world, his fastball is different. Where Capellan and Broxton throw 'heavy' fastballs, Thompson's sinks. Still, Brad has not generated a great GB/FB rate this year, but instead is excelling on great control. The minor league all-time leader of scoreless streaks (56.2 IP), I have reservations on whether Thompson will have continued success in St. Louis. His .170 BABIP will not continue, and sooner or later, his current scoreless streak (8 IP) will end.

    21. J.P. Howell (KC): 5.63 ERA in 16 IP- As if pitching for the Royals doesn't make it hard enough to get a win, Howell's three starts have come against very formidable opponents this season. In his first start -- J.P.'s lone win on the season -- Howell faced Brad Halsey, who entered the game with a 3.48 ERA on the season. In his next two starts, Howell would face two of the top five ERA pitchers in baseball: Roger Clemens and Mark Buerhle. Sure, he didn't make it easy on the offense (9 ER in 15 IP), but in many ways, he had lost before making his first pitch. In his last start, against the White Sox southpaw, I witnessed Howell pitch one of the more impressive 11 baserunner, five earned run performances I had ever seen. On the mound Howell is a master, as he did not throw one pitch ouside of 77-88 mph at U.S. Cellular. In fact, Howell's problems began when his fastball went from 84-85 to 86-88, likely straightening out when the velocity improved. His lack of stuff means that Howell needs two things to be successful: control and deception. He must first hit his spots, and also confuse hitters into swinging at his junk. Neither happened against Chicago, meaning he walked four in five innings, and when he got too cute, was lit up. Control and deception.

    22. Ryan Doumit (PIT): .718 OPS in 46 AB- This is not the organization for players like Doumit, as Craig Wilson and even Daryle Ward can attest. It appeared that Doumit might be able to handle duties behind the plate, but I'm not so sure he'll log many more than the 32 innings he already has. Instead, Doumit will find time wherever he can, likely carrying a larger stick than he has shown this far. For the Pirates, it will be important for Doumit to play better than Chris Shelton in Detroit, who was a Rule 5 pick from the Pirate organization when the club just could not give up on J.R. House.

    23. Mike Morse (SEA): .974 OPS in 76 AB- I wasn't so sure anyone knew why Morse was doing so well, until reading the U.S.S. Mariner exclusive on the subject. While Morse is turning heads in the organization at the moment, I reserve my doubts that this type of success will continue. In the past, it has appeared that Morse is similar to Shea Hillenbrand, in that he tends to always start very well. When being traded from the White Sox, Morse was the season's surprise, dominating the Southern League like few middle infielders do. After that, he faded, presumably when the world got the book on Morse. I'm not exactly sure how that book reads, but I have no doubt that sooner or later, the best pitchers in the world will get their hands on it. After then, expect Morse to get passed in the organization by either Yuniesky Betancourt (AAA), Adam Jones (AA), Asdrubal Cabrera (A+) and Matt Tuiasasopo (A-). At least he's replaceable, right?

    WTNYJune 24, 2005
    Reviewing the Breakouts
    By Bryan Smith

    With most of the minor leagues at or near their midseason All-Star breaks, now is as good a time as ever to begin to rehash prospect, and breakout lists. Today I thought I would do the latter, and critique how I did with my 15-man list that I wrote before the season. Below is a quick review of those players, and their statistics are below. Enjoy...

    Andy LaRoche- I liked him, sure, but this much? Leading the minor leagues in home runs as we almost enter July? No, not quite. And as Brandon Wood is no doubt being helped by his environment, the California League, LaRoche has not exactly been playing in hitting havens. At this point, I wonder what separates LaRoche from Ian Stewart, except for a couple years that Ian has on him. With that being said, LaRoche is undoubtedly the third best prospect at his position, and with Andy Marte graduating to the Majors, has an argument for the top spot. There are things like patience and defense that could still be improved, but if you're good enough to send Joel Guzman back where he came from (SS), you are being noticed.

    Francisco Liriano- A rather raw southpaw before the season, having spent 2004 recovering from arm surgery, Francisco seems to have put it all together this season. He very quickly became one of the Eastern League's best pitchers this year, striking out hitters at a fabulous rate. A big southpaw with fantastic stuff, the Twins very may have been planning to include Liriano in their playoff bullpen to add yet another powerful arm. Now, with the playoffs looking more and more unlikely, it won't be long until the Twins try giving Francisco and Scott Baker a few starts. Proving to be on top of the Twins deep, deep system, Liriano struck out eight in his first AAA start, spanning six innings.

    Jon Lester- Last year, Lester's season stats were a bit misconstrued by bad play early and bad play late. I worried the same would happen this year, when Lester began the season allowing six runs in eight innings. There were good signs (13K/1BB), but an ERA of 6.75 was not how I hoped he would start the season. Since then he has been dynamite with a 2.27 ERA and 6.82 H/9, even if his K/BB is 'just' 61/26. While Lester has been outshone in the Boston system by Jon Papelbon and Anibal Sanchez, both of whom were fantastic early on, Lester is every bit as good as they are. Despite being a southpaw in an organization like the Red Sox, Jon continues to be a sleeper. People are waiting for that Verlander-type game, not appreciating the consistency that Lester has had en route to his 2.75 ERA.

    Nick Markakis- With all the press that Jeff Fiorentino received making a surprise trip to Baltimore, Markakis fell a bit by the wayside. Fiorentino proved that he could already hit in the Majors, so many felt like Jeff had jumped over Nick and Majewski and became the top Baltimore outfield prospect. Personally, I don't see it. Fiorentino played OK in Baltimore, but hasn't even been spectacular in the Carolina League. Sure, Markakis has not done too much better, but the potential is there. I just love the walks, I love the doubles, and I love his right field play. Simply put, with a bit more power, this guy is a future superstar. Here's to hoping he finds it, and puts enough confidence into Oriole management not to re-sign Sosa for too long.

    Ambiorix Burgos- If you had asked me back in March how Burgos would make the Majors, I surely would have predicted the relief role. I wouldn't, however, have gotten his ETA quite right. I still would not have gotten it right in mid-April, when Burgos was doing alright in the Texas League. But when the Royals called up Burgos and his 4.50 ERA from AA, they must have seen something that I did not. I believed in Burgos, but after walking 75 in the Midwest League last year, he needed a lot of minor league seasoning before reaching the Majors. In fact, what Burgos needed was to get thrown into the fire, and for his team to have the patience to let him get his way out. Burgos was doing just that before his recent bout with shoulder soreness, which Will Carroll tells me will hopefully go away with a few weeks of rest. Cross your fingers, because in his eight June apperances, Burgos allowed just one run in 9.2 innings, striking out 13 batters. He had found his way out.

    Elijah Dukes- One of the streakier players in the minors this year, Dukes had an amazing April, followed by a horrible May. Luckily, a solid June has brought his average back over .300, and his slugging again over .500. Dukes has shown very good power in Delmon Young's shadow, and while not quite running as much as Young, also has solid speed. With Rocco Baldelli injured, the door has been open for the next Devil Ray center fielder to step forward, and Dukes is attempting to do that. It's amazing that a team with no chance in 2005 has not been more aggressive, not doing anything to B.J. Upton, Young and Dukes despite very good offensive years at their current levels. For some reason, I don't think Chuck Lamar has learned any lessons from Terry Ryan.

    Asdrubal Cabrera- Few teams in recent memory have had middle infield depth in the minors like the Seattle Mariners. Up to a few weeks ago, Seattle had Jose Lopez and Mike Morse in AAA, Yuniesky Betancourt in the Texas League, Adam Jones and Michael Garciaparra in high-A, and Cabrera with Matt Tuiasasopo and Yung Chi Chen in low-A. And the problem is, a good problem at that, is that no one is playing poorly. Jones is hitting like he never has before in the Cal League, Tui is proving his short-season performance of last year not to be a fluke. Even Lopez and Morse are making waves since being promoted to the Majors. But, maybe with the exception of Lopez, I think Asdrubal is the best of the bunch. In fact, Cabrera proved to have the whole arsenal in the Midwest League this year: versatility (played 2B, SS, 3B), defense, contact (.318 AVE and just 32 K's in 192AB), patience (30 BB), and even pop (.156 ISO). Now Asdrubal has been promoted to the Cal League, which was Seattle's plan of their polished infielder since before the season. Moving forward, the Mariners should be planning to keep Lopez at second, Cabrera at short, and move Tui to either third or the outfield. And if you ask me, all the other players mentioned are far more likely to be suspects than legit prospects.

    Francisco Rosario- On Tuesday, I wrote that Rosario might be the next player to make a successful move from starting to relief. Because simply put, Rosario is not putting the type of results into box scores as his organization would hope. As Liriano has taken his stuff and transformed himself into an elite prospect, Rosario cannot do that. For as good as his H/9 is, he allows too many home runs, and does not strike out enough batters. The latter two do not bode well for relief, I admit, but who knows what will happen when the pitch counts get turned down. Kenny Baugh can put forth those type of numbers in the International League and draw pity from me, but Rosario just breeds frustration. Like Brandon League, Francisco needs to find a home quick, because both are on the verge of falling out of favor.

    Chris Young- Before the season, I may have been the only person alive to think Young a superior prospect to Ryan Sweeney. Shortly into the season, I warmed to Sweeney, and Young's cold start worried me. Now, I just wish you could put Young's positives with Sweeney's, which would eliminate any weakness, and create the super prospect (a.k.a Delmon Young). For example, put Young's power (.229 ISO) with Sweeney's contact (11.0 K%), Young's range with Sweeney's arm, and Chris' baserunning (13/16) with Ryan's age. If only. Instead, we have to take Chris Young for what he is: a .233 hitter that is likely to strikeout in excess of 150 times annually. Young still profiles to be Mike Cameron at best, but now is simply no different on the White Sox' radar than he was a year ago. This July, opposing organizations would be smart in asking for Young (low on the CWS outfield chain) as that player to be named later in Ken Williams' latest move.

    Melky Cabrera- On April 21, Yankees prospects Eric Duncan and Cabrera looked pretty helpless in the Eastern League, hitting .164 and .232 respectively. But since then the two are learning similarly to Burgos, as both were thrown into AA a bit prematurely. Cabrera is still the better of the two statistically, though his numbers have dipped since he topped .300 a few weeks ago. Cabrera looks to be a very streaky player that is showing power for the first time this season. Still, a .150 ISO for a player that doesn't hit .300, walk a ton or have a bunch of speed just isn't enough, so Melky needs to begin excelling in some area. And for him, as he's proven before, contact is what he needs to succeed. As a .300/.360/.450 player, Cabrera is very valuable. At .270/.330/.420, not so much.

    Alex Romero- Alex is just like Melky Cabrera, just above him. There is not one area that Romero excels at, and he doesn't even play the defense that Cabrera does. His numbers this year have been a little better, particularly showing the bit of power that he did develop in the Venezuelan Winter League. Romero also started with a big slump, so his decent numbers should be taken into context. The reason I have Cabrera ranked higher is one of projectability. It seems like Cabrera has a bit of star potential that Romero does not. Maybe both will be players in the mold of Aaron Rowand and Eric Byrnes, with the latter being what Romero could be. But those have now become the ceilings of these two players, not Bernie Williams, as I have mentioned before.

    Sean Marshall- Where many of the pitchers on this list entered the season very raw, I liked Marshall for his polish. A broken hand and abrupt promotion last year had made him virtually unnoticed, but I could not overlook how good his K/BB numbers always were. In the FSL Marshall made 12 starts, and his 61/26 ratio was the worst of his career. But he stayed effective due to a solid hit rate, proving that he can still succeed without his best stuff. The Cubs have now promoted him to AA, where he finished last season, and where the test begins. I think this organization likes Marshall better than Rich Hill, who is currently learning the nuances of a Major League bullpen. Marshall will not be like that: he will be starting, good results or bad, until his career ends.

    Carlos Marmol- Last night, I watched Jorge Sosa pitch well (better than the numbers indicated) against the Marlins, continuing his quest to be Leo Mazzone-reclimation project of the year. in fact, Sosa has been a reclimation project for multiple years, as it wasn't long ago that the Mariners opted to move Jorge to the mound. The Cubs decided to do the same with Marmol a few years back, moving the ex-catcher to the mound. Good decision. After furthering the learning process in 2004, Marmol has excelled in the Florida State League this year, leading to an all-star berth. There is very little to dislike about Marmol's numbers, with the only nitpicking to be his walk total. Carlos still has a long way to go before being noticed in this system, but there is no question that his first half caught the eye of Oneri Fleita. The problem with Marmol is his need to be on the 40-man roster, which just might make him an attractive Rule 5 candidate in December. And with the Cubs, I'd guess that's a sore subject.

    Francisco Hernandez- In the South Atlantic League, two catchers with very high expectations entering the season were Hernandez and Yanks' 2004 second-rounder Jon Poterson. Instead of living up to these thoughts, the Sally League proved to be too much for either player, as they combined for a 1.078 OPS. Now both players will be dropped to short-season baseball, where they must again prove past expectations to be correct. This leaves me in a conundrum, as I simply don't know what to do with Hernandez, no matter his success in rookie ball. At best I was trigger-happy with Francisco, as I proved to be with Fernando Nieve in 2004. At worst, Hernandez is the next example of why trusting statistics from any league below low-A is foolish.

    Finally, here is a look at the statistics for all these players, starting with the hitters:

    Name	LVL	AB	AVE	OBP	SLG	BB/K
    AL	A+	249	0.333	0.380	0.651	19/38
    NM	A+	253	0.289	0.368	0.470	32/48
    ED	AA	242	0.302	0.361	0.504	22/49
    AC	A-	192	0.318	0.407	0.474	30/32
    CY	AA	270	0.230	0.330	0.456	37/81
    MC	AA	290	0.272	0.316	0.421	19/48
    AR	AA	253	0.273	0.331	0.443	18/36
    FH	A-	148	0.223	0.287	0.318	13/28

    And, now for the pitchers:

    Name	LVL	IP	H	K	BB	ERA
    FL	AA	76.2	70	92	26	3.64
    JL	AA	75.1	63	74	27	2.75
    AB	MLB	24.1	25	28	12	4.44
    FR	AAA	82.1	70	63	27	3.72
    SM	A+	69	63	61	26	2.74
    CM	A+	72.1	60	71	37	2.99

    That's all for now. How'd I do? Who did I miss?

    WTNYJune 21, 2005
    Try of Relief
    By Bryan Smith

    Editor's Note: If you came over today eagerly anticipating Rich's take on Jered Weaver's debut, he will have that up tomorrow. Expect plenty of commentary and "I told you so"s of the ex-Dirtbag's 3-inning, one run, four strikeout performance.

    I must admit a soft spot. An inherant bias that, all too often, leads me to overrate certain prospects. The group, which adds many names annually, often includes players that become my favorites to follow in the minors.

    Before the 2004 season, in what was my first publicized prospect list, Bobby Jenks was ranked as baseball's 31st prospect. Conversely, Jenks did not make the Baseball America list. This past January, I had Jose Capellan and Jonathan Broxton ranked 20th and 74th, respectively, against BA having them in the 25th and unranked spots. Ambiorix Burgos was on my breakout list before the year, when few others could get over his 75 walk season.

    When you put these players side-by-side, it isn't surprising to find similar skillsets. All are rather large humans that are blessed with a hard and moving fastball, but cursed with poor control and a limited repertoire. Their fates were predictable for about as long as they have been noticed, as each has had his fair share of scouting reports reading, "possible forthcoming move to relief."

    This is why I was not surprised when, in the course of the same week, Capellan and Broxton's fates were both altered. The writing had been on the wall, especially for the Brewer, who has had his second pitch (curveball) long criticized. He shined in the minors and even the Futures Game, after which I wrote, "Capellan threw his fastball from 95-98, using it on thirteen of his fifteen total pitches. His curve was rather unimpressive, and though this might depress Braves' fans, Capellan reminded me of a younger Kyle Farnsworth." An inauspicious Major League debut ensued (11.25 ERA in 8IP), when again, the Braves couldn't stop him from using that fastball too much.

    When the Brewers acquired Capellan for closer Danny Kolb, I wondered if Doug Melvin got the best reliever. Another Armando Benitez, maybe, and one with a 'heavier' heater at that. But Milwaukee thought to leave him in the rotation a little longer, even after a Spring Training when Chad Moeller said, "He just needs a second pitch that he can throw consistently for a strike. He was pretty much a one-pitch pitcher today." After 12 decent-at-best starts in the International League, Capellan's time bomb went off.

    As for Broxton, he faced a disadvantage that Capellan did not: organizational depth. With the Dodgers flush in starting pitching prospect, and Broxton not separating himself from the pack, a move could be afforded. The Bull has a big fastball too, and better yet, a good breaking ball on top of that. Put it together and what do you got? A reliever.

    Adding fuel to the fire, Broxton's velocity increased in short stints, reportedly from 92-93 to 95-97. This is a nearly impossible happening to see coming, rather just an answer to a farm director's prayers. Who would have known that Francisco Rodriguez would take off when dropping his pitch count? Or to an even larger extent, Eric Gagne, the quintessential starter-turned-reliever story?

    While even the Dodgers may not have seen Gagne coming, you can bet Dan Evans is still thanking his lucky stars the Blue Jays asked for Luke Prokopec in the Paul Quantrill trade. What Los Angeles did see, however, is the similarities between Gagne and Broxton when they were still starting at Vero Beach:

    Name	ERA	H/9	K/9	W/9
    EG	3.74	7.60	9.28	3.09
    JB	3.23	7.71	10.10	3.02

    The jury is still out on Capellan and Broxton, who have been told the move to relief will be a temporary one. But you can bet more outings like the two-inning, four strikeout performance Capellan had on 6/16 will gradually sell Melvin and DePodesta on a full-time move. And, of course, they might already by sold on it. Maybe the story of Chris Ray was enough to do that. Or maybe it was the early results of Kansas City's patchwork bullpen, or Jenks' newfound success. Whatever it was, if you ask me, these moves are far from temporary.

    Ray won't be doing anything but relief from here on out, especially not after what the Orioles have seen. Once a marginal starting pitching prospect with a 3.65 ERA in 2004, short stints have helped the ex-Tar Heel jump over the likes of John Maine and Adam Loewen on the organizational ladder. In twenty-seven games in the Eastern League, Ray had a 1.10 ERA and a 37/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has since been called up to Baltimore, where he is showing an arsenal that principally includes a 93-97 mph fastball and hard, 80 mph slider.

    Where Ray should quickly become B.J. Ryan's set-up man, his rapid ascent pales in comparison to Ambiorix Burgos. Despite a 5.05 BB/9 in the Midwest League least year, Burgos still managed a 4.38 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 133.2 innings. The big league stuff was there, so the Royals thought to start him in the bullpen at AA this year. With huge problems and a successful start (17K in 8IP) in the Texas League, Burgos was called up April 27.

    Since then, Ambiorix has grabbed the Royals closer role. The results have been mixed -- trial by fire for sure -- but Kansas City must be enthused with his progress. They must also be excited that Burgos is joined at the back end of the bullpen with 2004 high-A pitchers Andy Sisco and Leo Nunez. 6-9 Sisco, the Royals Rule 5 steal, has thoroughly bounced back from a 2004 riddled with lost velocity and inconsistency. Nunez, who I once compared to Juan Cruz, has proven to be another heist since being acquired for 118 year old Benito Santiago.

    While those are the early success stories, it fails to recognize the guys still honing the craft in the minors. I have already mentioned Bobby Jenks, who is now a long way from where he once was, being compared to Bartolo Colon and profiling to be his future teammate. Instead, arm and mental troubles led to his release from the Angels, where he was subsequently claimed by the White Sox. His new organization gave him the AA closer job at the beginning of the season, and are slowly prospering from their claim. In 33.2 innings this year, Jenks has struck out 40, allowed just one home run, and has an ERA that stands at 2.67.

    The other two players I want to talk about are Colt Griffin and Manny Delcarman. Griffin was the Royals first round pick in 2001, following a high school season in which he hit 100 mph on the radar gun. He started all but four of his first 61 games, when Colt's ERA was 5.03. The Royals are now attempting to convert his stuff to the bullpen, though he isn't progressing as quickly as others in the KC system. Delcarman had to move because of system depth, and his results have been mixed. A few mixed-in bullpen blow-ups have left Manny's ERA at 4.11, but you can bet Theo Epstein is a lot more pleased with his 42 strikeouts in just over thirty innings.

    Give a pitcher some big velocity, and maybe even a solid secondary offering, and no matter the control they have, a chance exists. It's akin to a catcher with fantastic catch-and-throw skills, who at the very least, will ened up as a back-up Major League catcher. Minor leaguers with questionable stuff, almost no matter how good their control is, do not have the luxury of leaning back into a relief role. No matter who is on the horizon of bullpen switches (Francisco Rosario? Renyel Pinto? Mark McCormick?), you can expect their organization to be swayed by history. For now, Melvin and DePodesta are the newest GMs left hoping the past does repeat itself, and that their flamethrowers become the next K-Rod, Gagne, Benitez or Rivera.

    I'll be crossing my fingers.

    Minor League Notes

  • When Peter Gammons writes, people listen. So when Gammo introduced greater America to a new prospect, suddenly he's the flavor of the week. "Next up on the horizon is Edison Volquez, nicknamed 'Little Pedro,' who has been moved up Double-A Frisco." So, as we should in the case of any Ranger prospect, I turn to Jamey Newberg:

    Volquez needed only 105 pitches to complete the game, a remarkably low number considering the fact that he did record seven punchouts. The filthy change-up was almost Dominguez-esque, but it was as effective if not more so because of the greater life on his heater and the sharp breaking ball he mixed in.

    This came on the heels of a Volquez complete game in one of his first few AA starts, in which Newberg also reported he hit 95 in the ninth inning. So how did we allow Volquez to fly under the radar until now? Well, Volquez was good but not great between the Midwest and California Leagues last year, with K/9s right around 7.65, and BB/9 about 3.00. But nothing like this year, when the Rangers aggressively moved Edison to AA following 11 solid CL starts, and he has blossomed ever since.

    Still, Volquez cannot break the inner circle of Ranger pitching prospects, as John Danks and Thomas Diamond still rank better within the system. The southpaw was also moved up to AA, after just 10 starts, and has hung in there with Frisco since coming up. Danks hasn't really been great since the Midwest League last year, but he always pitches solid, and profiles to be a darn good #3 starter in the Majors. His ceiling, however, is not that of Diamond.

    Thomas Diamond showed us his ceiling on Sunday, when the right-hander pitched a one-hit, complete game shutout in which he struck out 14 hitters. While the Rangers have been very aggressive with their pitching prospects this season, Diamond remains the exception, the only member of the Bakerfield opening day rotation to still be with the team. One has to think that will change before his next start, and he will likely leave the California League with 1.99 ERA, 53 hits in 81.1 innings, with 101 strikeouts, 31 walks and just three home runs allowed.

    That performance yesterday re-opened the best SP prospect from the 2004 draft debate, where it looked like Justin Verlander was running away with things. Verlander has just been promoted to AA after dominating the Florida State League with a 1.67 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 86 innings. Both players have fantastic size and stuff, and have appeared to be in a competition of greatness this season. The question will likely get answered very soon, as Verlander moves from a good pitching league in the FSL to one of the minor's worst parks for pitchers in Erie.

  • With the injuries and season-long slumps piling up, it looks more and more everyday that this will not be Year 12 for the Atlanta Braves. Instead, it appears to be Year 1 of the rebuilding process. This season the club has been able to give offensive chances to Brian McCann (.833 OPS in 14AB), Wilson Betemit (1.014 in 82), Kelly Johnson (.687 in 47), Ryan Langerhans (.773 in 133), and most recently, Andy Marte (.479 in 28). On the pitching side, Kyle Davies (3.45 ERA in 6 GS) has appeared to supplant himself into the rotation.

    So what comes next? The Braves will lose Rafeal Furcal this offseason, who will in all likelihood be replaced by Betemit. The club will likely wait one more year to decide on whether Estrada or McCann will be the future Atlanta backstop. Andy Marte will likely head to the hot corner next year, pushing Chipper Jones into left field. Expect Johnson and Langerhans to continue a competition for the 2006 RF spot (a.k.a. waiting for Francoeur).

    And in centerfield, I offer a proposition. Andruw Jones, who will make $26.5M the next two seasons, gets traded to free up money. In exchange for Jones, Jim Hendry will offer Corey Patterson (Georgia native), Matt Murton (former GTech OF), and either Sergio Mitre, Rich Hill or Sean Gallagher. The Cubs will also pay $10M for each of the next two seasons, giving them a legitimate fifth hitter in exchange for a Wrigley not-so-favorite.

    The 2006 Braves, around the horn: Johnny Estrada (unless an offer comes for him), Adam LaRoche, Marcus Giles, Wilson Betemit, Andy Marte, Chipper Jones, Corey Patterson and Johnson/Langerhans.

  • To me, the College World Series invokes memories of great pitching performances from players overcoming aluminum bats. With Luke Hochevar already gone from the tournament, it appeared that yesterday's game would feature the last great pitching prospect in the CWS: Dallas Buck. The Oregon State right-hander has seen his stock go through the roof this season, and I eagerly anticipated watching Buck pitch. Unfortunately, it was not quite Dallas' best effort against a Baylor offense that is the worst of the CWS teams.

    In 5.2 innings, Buck allowed one earned run (three total), while scattering seven hits and two walks. Despite striking out more than 100 batters on the year, only two Bears went down on strikeouts. In fact, of the 91 pitches that he threw, only seven balls were swung and missed at. Furthermore, the acclaimed sinkerballer often compared to Derek Lowe registered just six ground ball outs.

    Still, not all was lost on the afternoon, as Buck kept his team in the game. He showed some mental toughness on the mound, though he gets visibly upset when mistakes are made. Think Carlos Zambrano, without the mid 90s four seamer. His sinker looked very good early, diving down and in to right-handers and coming in 88-91 mph. And not only did his slider show why it's such an out pitch, but Buck also spotted it for strikes.

    All in all, watching Buck I can understand why he will be sought after next year. But to become the player he can be, Buck must keep his sinker down, his slider away from right-handers, and his endurance (FB was down to 85-88 in 5th and 6th). You can bet that we'll be keeping our eyes on him, and I'll also have more on him very soon.

    Since we have not talked about the minors in quite some time in this space, please feel free to leave any minor league questions and comments below.

  • WTNYJune 19, 2005
    October in June: CWS Bracket Two
    By Bryan Smith

    Our day-late previews continue with bracket two today, following the exciting Tulane and Texas victories. It appears the two best teams in the bracket might just be Tulane and Oregon State, who were forced to bash heads in the preliminary rounds. Here's a look at all the clubs in bracket two...

    TULANE

    Key Players: Micah Owings (P/DH), Nathan Southard (CF), Tommy Manzella (SS), Brian Bogusevic (SP)

    WHY THE GREEN WAVE WILL WIN: Plain and simple, Tulane might just be the most complete team in the College World Series. Offensively they are the best of the eight, with the highest average and runs per game totals. Their team 3.80 ERA just missed being top 30 in Division I, and their fielding percentage was 17th in the nation.

    None of this could be done, of course, without Saturday starter Micah Owings. The former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket transferred from his old school following a disappointing draft-eligible sophomore season. Owings shined with the Green Wave this season, saving his best pitching for the end of the season, and using his power bat in the middle of the lineup. Teammate Brian Bogusevic joins him in two-way duties, and while not quite the hitter that Owings is, Bogusevic is a better pitcher when he's on top of his game.

    Three other hitters in the lineup, besides Owings, hit above .350 this season. The list includes shortstop Tommy Manzella who was one of the more overshadowed and underappreciated players in college baseball this year. The same thing happened in the bullpen with Sean Morgan and Dan Latham, as the pair combined for 78.1 innings with an ERA under 3.00 closing games for Owings and Bogusevic.

    WHY THE GREEN WAVE WILL LOSE: Well, I guess I could fault the team for not having a ton of depth, but that would simply be nitpicking. Tulane goes six or seven deep in their order, and have three effective starters and a good-enough bullpen.

    The problem most often for Tulane is their starting staff, as Owings and Bogusevic are very prone to bad outings from time to time. Both players are relatively raw on the mound, and not the Jason Windsor/John Hudgins-type pitchers that normally dominate in Omaha. Effective hitting teams should be able to rough up the Green Wave, which will put some considerable pressure on Tulane's offense.

    OREGON STATE

    Key Players: Jacoby Ellsbury (CF), Andy Jenkins (1B), Dallas Buck (SP), Jonah Nickerson (SP), Kevin Gunderson (RP)

    WHY THE BEAVERS WILL WIN: If you ask Boyd Nation, this is likely the team he would have chosen to win. The top team on Boyd's ISR, Oregon State had both the 20th best batting average and eighth best ERA through June 12. The club showed very few weaknesses in a cinderella season that brings them back to Omaha for the first time in fifty years.

    First of all, the club has two collegiate superstars in Ellsbury and Buck. Jacoby has drawn numerous comparisons to Johnny Damon in the past, and his .413/.502/.596 numbers were fantastic this past season. There was simply no better leadoff man in the NCAA this year, so Ellsbury will often begin a Beaver rally. Buck became the club's ace and a 2006 blue chipper in a season in which his sinker yielded a 2.12 ERA.

    WHY THE BEAVERS WILL LOSE: Well, first of all, because they have already lost. The devastating defeat to Tulane on Saturday really puts the Beavers against the wall, especially considering their opponents on Monday. Also, many think that the Beavers could simply be satisfied by making it to College World Series, as proving they belonged could have been enough.

    Some could voice concern about a pitching staff that only goes six deep, but that would be pushing things. Oregon State may have drawn the worst opponents of anyone in the tournament, and while they might not be the caliber of Tulane, they are likely one of the best four teams in Omaha.

    BAYLOR

    Key Players: Zach Dillon (DH), Ryan LaMotta (RP), Mark McCormick (SP), Trey Taylor (SP)

    WHY THE BEARS WILL WIN: Pitching. If the Bears can make it deep into the CWS, it will be because of their arms. The club ranked 12th in the NCAA in ERA, led by junior fireballer Mark McCormick. Unfortunately McCormick did not win on Saturday, leaving the rest of the Bear staff with a considerable onus.

    Luckily for McCormick, the staff is good enough to do so, especially with the best bullpen of the eight teams. The club is extremely deep in pitching, so don't expect too many troubles in that area.

    WHY THE BEARS WILL LOSE: Their offense is very lacking, with just two hitters above .300. Furthermore there is not one Baylor slugger that has nine home runs this season, and just one with a .400 OBP or .500 SLG. If opposing teams can avoid Josh Ford, then very little else in the lineup will hurt you.

    Only twice this season, and not since March 5 has Baylor lost a game in which they scored more than four runs. In fact, the majority of their losses have been in the case of zero, one and two run contests. Baylor has succeeded this season in games in which they score runs, but if they can't, expect a trip back to Waco right on the horizon.

    TEXAS

    Key Players: Seth Johnston (SS), Drew Stubbs (CF), Brent Cox (RP), Adrian Alaniz (SP), Taylor Teagarden (C)

    WHY THE LONGHORNS WILL WIN: The Longhorns offer one of the most balanced attacks in college baseball. In the lineup they have Drew Stubbs, a contact-first leadoff man with some of the best baserunning skills in college baseball. They also have senior shortstop Seth Johnston, who will bring as much pop from a middle infielder as anyone in this tournament. Taylor Teagarden is the other big name in the lineup, the polished catcher that handles the pitching staff and shows big-time power.

    They also have the Yankees second round draft pick, closer Brent Cox. Huston Street's prodigy, Cox is also the most accomplished closer in the tournament. Finally there is Alaniz, the freshman phenom who is developing into the next Longhorn ace. The foursome is a formidable group, that's for sure.

    WHY THE LONGHORNS WILL LOSE: While the Longhorns have the longest running streak of trips to Omaha, they also are an extremely different group than the 2004 version. This squad is very young and inexperienced, and despite being red hot right now, are capable of getting in some bad stretches.

    Still, they overcame a big obstacle in defeating Baylor -- who had handled them all season -- and moving on to play Tulane. This team would have championship aspirations if Sam Lecure was still on the club, but without him, they are simply just a good squad. Expect them to lose the next two games, to Tulane and Oregon State, and go home having had one wonderful season.

    * * * * *

    Sunday Scores:

    Arizona State 4, Tennessee 2 [Recap]

    WP - P Bresnehan (5-4) LP - J Adkins (10-5)
    HOME RUNS: Ten - J.P. Arencibia (14) off Erik Averill in the 1st

    Tennessee is the first team eliminated from the CWS.


    Florida 7, Nebraska 4 [Recap]

    WP - Darren O'day (8-3) LP - Johnny Dorn (12-2)
    HOME RUNS: Fla - Adam Davis (11) off Johnny Dorn in the 1st

    Florida won its seventh straight game. Jeff Corsaletti tied a CWS record with three doubles. The Gators, one win away from reaching the finals, are off until Wednesday when they will play the winner of Tuesday's matchup between the Cornhuskers and Arizona State.

    WTNYJune 18, 2005
    October in June: CWS Preview
    By Bryan Smith

    Not only does this preview come admittedly late, but it does so on the verge of my predicted champions (Tennessee) losing their first-round game. Rich, of course, had his team (Nebraska) win, so I expect the bragging to begin tomorrow. Luckily we both had Tulane, so if we go down on one side of the bracket, it will be together.

    Anyway, we will begin our two-part preview with bracket one, which kicked things off yesterday with Florida and Nebraska picking up victories. The draw hosts the hometown favorites, the SEC's two best (and even) teams, and the cinderella club. While I thought it possible for Tennessee to hang in there long enough to upset Nebraska, it now appears that the Huskers should make it through ten more days.

    Here is a look at the four teams in bracket one...

    NEBRASKA

    Key Players: Alex Gordon (3B), Joe Simokaitis (SS), Joba Chamberlain (SP), Johnny Dorn (SP), Zack Kroenke (P), Brett Jensen (CL)

    WHY THE HUSKERS WILL WIN: First and foremost, they will win because they have more pitching depth than any team in the College World Series. The staff ranked second in Division I play with a 2.61 cumulative ERA, and had eight players make at least 18 season appearances. Opponents have hit just .225 off the Huskers, allowing Nebraska to score 256 more runs than their opponents.

    Joba Chamberlain has become the de facto ace of the staff, transferring into Nebraska the season, and possibly pitching his way into the 2006 first round. Chamberlain led the team in strikeouts by a considerable margin, and pitched what might have been his best game of the season in the Super Regional. He won't beat you with his fastball -- at 88-92 it's just average -- but instead with a good feel for breaking pitches. Behind Chamberlain is freshman Johnny Dorn, who like Chamberlain has really progressed this year. The two young pitchers will be balanced by southpaws Zack Kroenke and Brian Duensing, both who were drafted in the middle rounds two weeks ago. Finally, closer Brett Jensen has been fantastic, posting a 45/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.90 ERA in 42.2 innings.

    Another bonus in the Nebraska corner is the Baseball America Player of the Year, Alex Gordon. The third baseman and second overall selection is capping off a fantastic season in which he may have taken the title from Darin Erstad as the best Husker ever. Gordon does just about everything well, even running the bases, and can take the ball out of the park at any time. In the game against Arizona State last night, the Sun Devils made sure not to let Gordon beat them. Expect this to continue throughout the CWS, but for Gordon to simply take his walks, and let Curtis Ledbetter try and knock him in.

    Finally, the Huskers come in hot. The club has won their last 11 games, and last lost to a non-Texas Tech team on May 10. Team that with an atmosphere that will be overwhelmingly positive in Omaha, and Nebraska has to be considered the favorite to win the tournament at this point.

    WHY THE HUSKERS WILL NOT WIN: If Nebraska gets knocked out of this tournament, it will simply be because their bats run cold. Alex Gordon is protected in the lineup by Joe Simokaitis and Ledbetter, but very little else. The majoirty of their losses were a product of run scoring, though the team will be very tough to beat if they can score four or more runs.

    As I mentioned, the lineup is incredibly top-heavy. Gordon and Simokaitis are responsible for 92 of the club's 300 walks, and only one other player drew more than 21 for the season. Without the group of three that I have mentioned, the club is hitting just .285. Expect opposing starters to go deep into games against Nebraska, and for the pitching to have to bail them out.

    FLORIDA

    Key Players: Matt LaPorta (1B), Jeff Corsaletti (CF), Brian Jeroloman (C), Alan Horne (SP),

    WHY THE GATORS WILL WIN: Opposite of Nebraska, the Gators will win with offense, or more specifically, the home run ball. The club ranked 17th in Division I in home runs per game, led by first baseman Matt LaPorta. The sophomore showed as much power as anyone in the nation this year, cementing a first round spot next year, and also homered against Tennessee yesterday. He simply is not going to make mistakes at the plate. The club also received double-digit home run totals from Jeff Corsaletti, Adam Davis and Brian Leclerc.

    Corsaletti is probably the next best player on the club, the centerfielder who leads things off, was tops on the team in batting average and walks. His contributions to the team are similar to that of Johnny Damon with the Red Sox: while he might not be the most traditional leadoff hitter, he is a great all-around player. He has enough speed to justify the spot, but has the power to knock in the bottom of the order during the middle of the game. He does just about everything right, and Corsaletti must star against the Husker pitching staff.

    The other reason, as shown on Friday, is Alan Horne. A former first round pick by the Cleveland Indians, Horne is an unfortunate case of someone that is hurt by attending college. Horne has been all over the map during his college career, finally making a home in Gainesville this season. The Tommy John rehab is still a work in progress, as his 4+ ERA this season can attest. Still, he can regularly run his velocity into the mid 90s and uses a curveball that he can throw for strikes early and often.

    WHY THE GATORS WILL LOSE: Depth, depth, depth. The club's cumulative batting average is actually less than the Huskers, because after their five .300 hitters, there is very little else to offer. If the team does not generate runs via the home run, or an opposing team's error, they could run into some problems. Opposing teams should really focus on Corsaletti and LaPorta, forcing the rest of the team to come up big.

    The other, and more significant, depth problem lies in the pitching staff. The club has had no pitcher throw consistently enough to take the ace title, and no one in the bullpen has proven to be a formidable closer. This can often be a recipe for disaster in Omaha, unless the staff gets extremely hot. A continuation of the season 3.95 ERA will just not get the job done, as teams like Nebraska have proven they will win every time they score four runs.

    Luckily the staff has picked the right seven games to not allow more than five runs during, as the club will almost always score more than five. If the Gators can stay hot, and keep opposing teams under six, they could still be playing next week.

    TENNESSEE

    Key Players: Luke Hochevar (SP), James Adkins (SP), Chase Headley (3B), Eli Iorg (OF)

    WHY THE VOLUNTEERS WILL WIN: Consistent offensive production mixed with a top-heavy pitching staff. Tennessee was top fifteen in the nation this season in scoring, doing so at a rate of 8.1 runs per game. This is the second best rate in the tournament, trailing top-ranked Tulane by just one tenth.

    The club is getting much of its offense from two stars and top-100 overall draft picks: Chase Headley and Eli Iorg. Both have shown considerable power during the season, and Headley has gotten on base at a rate that no other Volunteer in history has matched. Overall, the team is getting two hitters that will cumulatively produce at .385/.480/.680 levels.

    Beyond that, only one player in their starting lineup is hitting below .324, as the club's total average is an impressive .331. Watch out especially for Julio Borbon, a fleet-footed outfielder, and Josh Alley, the club's leadoff hitter. Both players will give Headley and Iorg some safety around them in the order. The Vols also run very often, with more than 100 steals for the season.

    While Hochevar just did not get it done yesterday, normally he is one of the nation's best pitchers. With an arsenal that includes a devastating sinker-slider combination, in addition to a mid-90s fastball, Hochevar was supposed to lead the Vols to a date with Nebraska on Sunday. In that game the club would have thrown freshman phenom James Adkins out there, following a Super Regional performance that was as impressive as he had thrown all season. With two arms on the staff, and two bats in the lineup, the Vols certainly have as much star power as anyone.

    WHY THE VOLUNTEERS WILL NOT WIN: Despite very good depth in their lineup, the same does not necessarily hold true with their pitching staff. Beyond Hochevar and Adkins, Tennessee can only turn to Sean Watson for consistency on the mound. While this was supposed to be enough to get the Vols through Sunday, losing the preliminary contest only puts added pressure on the club.

    I could also mention Alex Suarez, the black hole of the starting lineup, a normally sure-handed first baseman that hurt the Vols on the field and in the box on Friday. Throwing out someone with a .245 batting average and sub-.100 ISO into the first base position is a big risk, even if their fielding percentage is among the nation's best. Mistakes cannot be afforded at such a critical point in the season, and Suarez is symbolism for the Volunteers' slip-up tendencies.

    ARIZONA STATE

    Key Players: Travis Buck (OF), Jeff Larish (1B), Tuffy Gosewisch (C), Erik Averill (SP)

    WHY THE SUN DEVILS WILL WIN: First and foremost, the Sun Devils make contact about as much as anyone in the tournament. The club goes ten deep in .280+ hitters, and will constantly put pressure onto a defense. In the error-prone world that is college baseball, this should really plan into Arizona State's hands.

    The club also has probably the best top of the order in Omaha, in Jeff Larish and Travis Buck. The decision to put them on top of the order is a sabermetric one, assuming that the two best hitters should be given the most at-bats. Both players are patient and powerful at the plate, and Buck led the team with a .380 batting average. There is no harder thing than to start a huge game against these two hitters, who promise to get into young pitcher's heads early and often.

    WHY THE SUN DEVILS WILL LOSE: And they will lose. First of all, the offense is not perfect in any way, shape or form. Only Larish finished the regular season with a home run total in double-digits, playing in a home ballpark that is more friendly than not for sluggers. The .130 ISO has to be the worst of the eight teams, and expecting to win the tournament with single-single-single is not a good mindset.

    The team also has very, very little in the pitching department. The club's ERA was 4.63 this year, and only Averill will give the team much from the starting rotation. Friday's pitcher, Zechry Zinicola, had a 5.88 ERA on the year. The club will simply have to hope for five or six good innings, and then hope to play match-ups well out of the bullpen. It is extremely difficult to win consistently by allowing five runs per game, and the Sun Devils have struggled in that regard, until recently.

    Finally, the club had just a 7-15 record on the year away from home. All in all, it just does not add up for Arizona State in 2005.

    Tomorrow I will give bracket two the same day-late treatment, and hope to give Saturday updates on the initial winners all throughout the day. Check back in...

    * * * * *

    Saturday Scores:

    Tulane 3, Oregon State 1 [Recap]

    WP - M Owings (12-4) LP - J Nickerson (9-2) S - D Latham (13)
    HOME RUNS: Tul - Nathan Southard (12) off Eddie Kunz in the 8th

    Tulane is attempting to become the first number one national seed to win the College World Series since Miami in 1999. Oregon State is making its first trip to the CWS since 1952.


    Texas 5, Baylor 1 [Recap]

    WP - A Alaniz (7-3) LP - M Mccormick (8-4)
    HOME RUNS: Tex - Seth Johnston (9) off Mark Mccormick in the 1st

    Texas beat Baylor for the first time in five meetings this year.

    WTNYJune 14, 2005
    Drafting Team Rankings (Part 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    "This is stupid." "Why are you doing this?" "You are going to end up looking like an idiot." All of these things I was accused of last week, when I published my AL draft reviews and rankings. To these criticisms, all I can simply respond is that I agree. As I said last week, "With exactly zero professional at-bats in all 1,501 combined, trying to guess who succeeded and failed might just be a fool's game."

    This is an extremely difficult thing to project, but I am attempting to do so anyway. First of all, in one, two, and three years this will be a very fun piece to look back at. These are literally my first impressions and my guesses, after trying to read as much as possible. So with that as your warning, continue to the NL edition.

    I want to make sure and emphasize that these rankings are not representative of how the teams drafted, but who they drafted. By putting Arizona on top of my NL rankings I'm not saying Mike Rizzo necessarily drafted better than Logan White, just that his draft class has a better chance (in my opinion) of being successful. With that in mind...

    A December Loss Just Means Christmas Comes in June

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: It isn't hard to mess things up when you are at the top, calling out the name of someone who has (supposedly) Bo Jackson athleticism and Alex Rodriguez power potential. Justin Upton simply makes this class look good by himself, he has all five tools, and -- if they put him in center immediately -- should fly through the system. He's a better prospect out of high school than Delmon Young was, and maybe the best since Josh Hamilton. But Mike Rizzo did not stop there on draft day, picking up the Northeast's pride and joy, Matt Torra in the beginning of the supplemental round. Torra had top ten rumors associated with him, and his control is good enough to make him the first 2005 starter in the Majors. The team then took risks at the beginning of the third round, choosing Wild Thing Jason Neighborall and then two-way player Micah Owings. Neighborall should be converted to relief right now, where he has the stuff to move like Ambiorix Burgos. Owings is still a little raw on the mound, but if his Sunday performance is indicative of ability, he'll shine like a first rounder. With four solid players in the bag, and two more potential players in Matt Green and Mark Romanczuk, it should turn out to be a fantastic effort by the Diamondbacks.

  • St. Louis Cardinals: Following a 2004 draft in which the club did not sign one high school player, the Cardinal scouting department seemed to be a little less regimented this year. That helped the draft yield considerably, as the club landed three of Future Game's top 31 prospects, and two college players once considered top ten talents. The draft began with Colby Rasmus, the Alabama high school outfielder with a bunch of power. Rasmus signed for a million dollars quickly, and was one of my favorite players in the draft. I'm also quite fond of Tyler Greene, the club's second choice from Georgia Tech, as he profiles to steal 20 bases and win Gold Gloves perenially in the Majors. Where the question with Greene will always be his bat, the club's next choice -- pitcher Mark McCormick from Baylor -- will always have control concerns. In the very least, he'll succeed Jason Isringhausen in the Cardinal closer role. Following McCormick was right-handers Tyler Herron and Josh Wilson, two accomplished pitchers from competitive programs.

  • Florida Marlins: Like the Red Sox last week, it's pretty hard not to like the Marlins draft. Like the Red Sox, Florida mixed and matched college and high school players throughout the draft, but early, it appears they drafted out of need. Was it a coincidence that the club's first five selections were pitchers? Or that they drafted Aaron Thompson in the 22nd spot when players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus remained on the board? The club did very nice in selecting Chris Volstad, Jacob Marceaux (a personal favorite) and Sean West, all players that I am very fond of. But Thompson appears to be a reach, and Ryan Tucker may opt to attend Cal State Fullerton rather than sign. The fruits of the scouting department's labor will not be seen soon, as none of these players will move too quickly, but they undoubtedly represent the future of starting pitching in Miami.

    Picking Early, Often and Effectively

  • San Diego Padres: One would normally be stupid in associating San Diego with conservatism. It normally just does not happen, but in 2005 Chief Gayton was the exception to the rule. The long time Padres scouting director conducted a very effective draft last week, but one that does not have a very high ceiling. The draft began with Miami right-hander Cesar Carillo, and Long Beach southpaw Cesar Ramos. Both were very good college pitchers with great control, but neither profiles to be higher than a third or fourth starter. Later in the draft they took Chase Headley (2) and Seth Johnston (5), who both profile to be solid, if unspectacular players on the left side. Ramos' teammate Neil Jamison's potential tops out in middle relief. The player with the most potential could be the club's fourth selection, Arizona catcher Nick Hundley, who I wrote about extensively last Wednesday. All in all there is a decent chance that the Padres net as many Major Leaguers from the 2005 draft as anyone. But in twenty-five years, I doubt many will be hailing this draft as the year's best.

  • Houston Astros: Lance Broadway's late season heroics put a big move on the draft, changing things just hours before Arizona kicked it off. Suddenly Broadway was the White Sox man, and not Cesar Carillo, as many previously had thought. This allowed the Padres to take their man at 18, instead of being 'forced' into selecting Tulane's ace, Brian Bogusevic. The chain of events also led to the Astros, who instead of taking Jacob Marceaux, ended up with Bogusevic, a far safer talent. The club also went safe at 38, albeit too safe in my opinion, taking Tennessee outfielder Eli Iorg. A reach, yes, but Iorg should move quickly through the system. The high ceiling player is Floridian catcher Ralph Henriquez, a switch-hitter with a father in the Braves organization. Henriquez profiles to have plus power and better-than-average catching skills, which could make him this draft's best talent. He'll just need to learn what consistency means first.

  • Colorado Rockies: Nice mix of high school and college talent, as well as grabbing hitters and pitchers. Interestingly enough, it looks like the organization prefers aged offensive players, while grabbing more raw pitchers. I wonder if that is an organizational philosophy, or just what their board decided for them this season. Anyway, Troy Tulowitzki is a great talent at the seventh spot, a player that some people would have taken with the top pick. Tulo will not only move quickly through the system, but in Coors Field, has superstar potential. The question here was Luke Hochevar or Tulo, which gets down to the basic philosophy of spending predominantly on hitters or pitchers for Coors. My personal guess would be the latter, but if this team can start building a lot of young depth in offense, look out. Besides Tulo I like the Chaz Roe, Daniel Carte, and Brandon Durden choices especially.

  • Atlanta Braves: After drafting surprisingly conservative with their first pick, choosing college closer Joey Devine, Roy Clark went back to normal the rest of the way. There was Beau Jones, one of Louisiana's best arms, and Yuniel Escobar, the toolsy shortstop from Cuba. Many talented arms (35 pitchers in total, the draft's high), and quite a few picks from Georgia and Florida. And of course, lots of high schoolers, as their six college choices were a draft low. It seems that the Braves have just about as much consistency in their draft styles as they do first place finishes. The exception of the year, as mentioned, was Devine. With the club facing unexpected bullpen problems that are likely not going away, hoping Devine to be the answer is a good philosophy. While some mock the idea of spending a first-round pick on relievers, for some teams I believe it is undoubtedly the right decision. And of course the best part of the current Braves draft is the fact that their first five picks have been signed.

    The Macgyver Award Winners For Making Use of What They Had

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: I have mentioned before on this site that while Logan White still has contributed little-to-none at the Major League level, he still has to be considered one of the best five scouting directors in the game. This year was no exception, as White still managed to have one of the best NL drafts despite not choosing until pick 40. Part of his draft was because of good fortune, as consensus #2 pitcher, Luke Hochevar, fell due to bonus concerns. Hochevar should be considered one of the three best Los Angeles pitching prospects already, which is saying a lot considering the Dodgers' fantastic system. But what solidifies White as being good is that after being lucky, he came back with three great high school talents: Ivan DeJesus, Josh Wall and Josh Bell. I also like Sergio Pedroza, presumably one of DePo's boys, who should provide solid value after leaving Cal State Fullerton. White's drafting efforts might just be the best in the NL, and while his class isn't quite the caliber of some, that shouldn't prevent him from getting an interview for the next GM hole.

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: It isn't that the Pirates were plagued with a lack of picks, they just didn't get any advantages. This is an organization that hasn't smelled the playoffs since Sid Bream, but have still had to wait until pick 11 each of the last two years. And beyond that, they aren't losing enough good players to gain compensation either. Still, considering their position, I really like what the Pirates did, first by taking Floridian outfielder Andrew McCutchen. While their first pick was an all-tools player with high bust potential, it should be noted that the club's next twelve picks were of the college variety. Kudos to the Pirates for creating a very nice balance in their selections, and if McCutchen hits, also for creating one Hell of a class.

    Future Members of the Show "Hit Me Baby One More Time"

  • New York Mets: To be honest, all I really see coming from this class is a future battery: Mike Pelfrey on the mound, and Drew Butera behind the plate. If that is true, Omar Minaya might not be too disappointed. That is simply how good of a talent Pelfrey is, a tall, projectable player with a developed arsenal. He certainly projects better than (gasp!) Jered Weaver, the top collegiate pitcher from 2004. Butera profiles to be his personal catcher, one of the back-up variety, as his bat even pales in comparison to Taylor Teagarden's. But the kid can catch-and-throw with the best of them, and the Mets teaming him up with Pelfrey early and often would be in their best interests. Certainly not a great draft by the Mets, but with Pelfrey and no second and third-round picks, it will be hard to frown upon it.

  • Washington Nationals: One of the most important things for this organization at this time, besides winning, is creating a face for themselves. Washington is such a perfect place for baseball, that I think they are just a superstar away from blending in. While winning will continue to sell itself this year, the club will no doubt find its dry spell at some point. Then what will the marketing department use? Cue Ryan Zimmerman, maybe the surest thing in this draft. Zimmerman, from nearby UVa, has potential that tops out at (ironically enough) Cal Ripken Jr. Great choice there. I also like what Washington did after Zimmerman, though they didn't pick again until the fourth, choosing only players from competitive areas or programs. As Zimmerman goes, so does this draft, but choosing a few well-tested Tar Heels, Terrapins and Dirtbags can't hurt either.

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Just like Mike Radcliff in Minnesota and Logan White in Los Angeles, good draft classes associated with Jake Zdurnieck were just an annual event. I'm not as confident as saying that this year, where there is simply not a lot of depth behind Ryan Braun. What is interesting is that I believe Milwaukee chose more, 19, Junior College players than any other organization. Surely if Billy Beane did this it would be associated with Moneyball, with the A's finding an underdeveloped area of the draft. With the Brewers we simply view it with skepticism, but with the new regime in place, I am not prepared to criticize. Braun looks to be Aubrey Huff 2.0 as a player, and looks to be the bat behind Fielder and Weeks. I should also mention that if the latter's brother signs, instead of going to Miami as expected, this draft could turn into a real positive.

  • Chicago Cubs: In the end, the question had to come down to Mark Pawelek vs. Luke Hochevar. If the question was a concern of dollars and cents, than the amicable Pawelek was surely their man. But in what universe are the Cubs that budget-conscious on draft day? And in what other ways does Pawelek have the upper hand on Hochevar. The latter blossomed like no other at Tennessee, setting records and giving Mike Pelfrey some competition for top NCAA pitcher. Maybe there is something I don't know here, but in the end drafting Pawelek ahead of Hochevar looks like it will end badly. Pawelek has two solid pitches from an area of the country with little-to-zero baseball competition. After Mark the team started to pick predominantly from the college ranks, taking very few high ceiling, high risk players. The draft was filled with pitchers, and skill position players, simply in the hopes that out of quanity comes quality. I'm not sure this is how to run a draft, but considering the Cubs past success, it's hard to quabble.

  • Cincinnati Reds: While many believe that Jay Bruce's stock rose enough to justify a top five selection before the draft, I just didn't see it. Talk of him being drafted before Cameron Maybin was ludicrous, in my opinion, and I was (and am) far higher on C.J. Henry. Maybe it is something that I'm not seeing, very likely of course, but Bruce's bust potential is probably the highest of the top 20 picks. But while the club may have been better off with Henry or Chris Volstad, it's very hard to argue with a player that so many believe in. So I'm not faulting the Reds too much for Bruce, but instead for a lack of depth. Their next five picks were pitchers, and of the group, Sam Lecure is really the only player I like. This system needs pitching so bad, and I'm just afraid pitchers from Gardner-Webb, Niagara and Loyola Maramount are not going to get it done.

    Spurning the Scouts

  • Philadelphia Phillies: With Ed Wade active every winter trying to fix every Phillie hole, the club often ends up with a few less picks than many teams. A couple years ago they had to wait, and then selected Tim Moss -- an accomplished collegiate second baseman -- with their first pick. They went back to college again this year, in which they selected sabermetric fave Mike Costanzo from the Big South. It remains to be seen how Costanzo will hand playing the hot corner full-time, or how he hits better pitching, but all in all this was a good pick. I also like Matt Maloney in the third as a future swingman, and barring health problems, Jeremy Slayden could provide fantastic value in the eighth round. A valiant effort by the Phillies -- great drafting -- but this is a situation in which context prevented them from having a great class.

  • San Francisco Giants: Despite normally drafting very well, if unconventionally, the Giants are turning more and more against spending money on draftees. This year the club waited until pick 132 to draft athletic Ben Copeland, and then picked Daniel Griffin -- who racked up strikeouts at Niagara University -- with their first two selections. I'm not so sure this draft is ever going to yield much, but the Giants dug their own graves when they started signing free agents in November.

    And finally we will end with the rankings. Please leave thoughts and comments below:

    1. Arizona Diamondbacks
    2. St. Louis Cardinals
    3. Florida Marlins
    4. San Diego Padres
    5. Los Angeles Dodgers
    6. Colorado Rockies
    7. Houston Astros
    8. Atlanta Braves
    9. Washington Nationals
    10. New York Mets
    11. Pittsburgh Pirates
    12. Milwaukee Brewers
    13. Chicago Cubs
    14. Philadelphia Phillies
    15. Cincinnati Reds
    16. San Francisco Giants

  • WTNYJune 12, 2005
    "You Ain't Got No Alibi"...
    By Bryan Smith

    Kudos to ESPN for increased coverage this year of college baseball's super regionals. While the event is still the runt of the three major sports, it's nice to see the Worldwide Leader in sports recognize the following is enough for more airtime.

    Unfortunately, the product is not exactly selling itself.

    There was no better example of this than the opening game of the USC-Oregon State game on Saturday night. The contest was much talked about as it brought together two of the five best sophomore starters, Ian Kennedy (USC) and Dallas Buck (Or. St.). The story of the game hardly turned out to be strikeouts, but instead that of fielding errors. USC dug itself quite a hole in a losing battle, committing eight errors which allowed the Beavers to score ten times on just seven hits.

    The ugliness began early, as the Trojans opened the game with two consecutive errors and a hit by pitch, though Kennedy escaped out of the inning with just one unearned run allowed. The game made another ugly turn in the fourth with a sequence of events that yielded this play-by-play data: E6, BB, GIDP, BB, E4, E6, FC. In the sixth it was another error from the shortstop and a wild pitch that led to two runs. And finally the ugly night was capped off in the bottom of the eighth, when USC opened the door for five runs by committing another throwing error and a misplayed ball in left field.

    It was certainly no surprise to see Oregon State, ranked first in the nation by Boyd Nation, defeat USC on its home turf Saturday night. It was simply the "how" and not the "what" that left viewers dumbstruck.

    While the degree of ugliness we saw in Game One was unparalleled, the theme of the weekend has simply been that games are being given away. It was seen in the Fullerton regional, in which the defending champs came back to defeat Arizona State with two runs in the ninth. This was spawned by Sun Devil sophomore Zechry Zinicola, named last year on the Freshman All-America team. Zinicola did not look so impressive on Friday when a throwing error on a pickoff attempt and subsequent balk cost Arizona State the game. And while the club came back to win Game Two, should they lose on Sunday, it will have cost them the series.

    Our theme was evident at Georgia Tech, in which the first game was nearly totally decided by bad plays. In the first inning the Volunteers struck first, with star Eli Iorg scoring on a wild pitch. But the Yellow Jackets battled back, getting to Luke Hochevar with two outs in both the fourth and sixth. First it was Jeremy Slayden who scored on a passed ball, after reaching base on an error. And then in the sixth it was a balk again, allowing Georgia Tech to take the lead. Tennessee salvaged the contest in the ninth with a walk-off home run, and ended the series Saturday with a 13-3 bashing.

    It was four home runs and a complete game that allowed the University of Florida to take the first game of their Super Regional against Florida State on Friday. But without bad play by the Seminoles on Saturday, Gainesville residents might not be making their plans to Omaha this morning. Sophomore Brian Leclerc hit his second home run of the series to take the lead 4-1 in the first inning, but the Seminoles inched back with runs in the third and fourth. But in the bottom half of the inning the Gators received an insurance run when Stephen Barton both reached base and scored on separate errors. Florida did not look back, scoring three in the sixth to solidify a series win.

    Misplays also had a large part of Nebraska and Clemson winning their opening game contests over Miami and Baylor, respectively. After falling behind 1-0 in the fourth, Huskers' SS Joe Simokaitis tied the game scoring on a fielding error. Nebraska went on to win the game, and hit three home runs Saturday to advance to next weekend. Clemson hopes they will be so lucky tomorrow, after upsetting the Bears in Waco thanks in part to Baylor. In the third it was two consecutive wild pitches that allowed Clemson to tie the game, and a fielding error in the eighth netted an insurance run.

    In conclusion, I apologize to ESPN for the lackluster defense that has been seen so far this weekend. I can only offer a promise, that despite this play, the drama will be what keeps me glued to my television today and tomorrow.

    All Series, Updated 4:37 p.m. ET
    #1 Tulane tied 1-1 with Rice
    #8 Oregon State up 1-0 over USC
    #4 Baylor down 0-1 against Clemson
    #5 Mississippi up 1-0 over Texas

    #6 Cal State Fullerton tied 1-1 with Arizona State
    #3 Nebraska defeats Miami, 2-0
    #7 Florida defeats Florida State, 2-0
    #2 Georgia Tech loses to Tennessee, 0-2

    Weekend Heroes (Updated Sunday, 4:36 p.m. ET)
    - Tennessee pitchers Luke Hochevar and James Adkins: a combined 22 strikeouts in 14.2 IP.
    - Arizona State sluggers Jeff Larish and Travis Buck: the latter goes 2/4 with a HR in game one, Larish does the same in the second game.
    - Florida outfielder Brian Leclerc: 3/9 with two HR, 4 RBI, and ten total bases in two games.
    - Nebraska sophomore Joba Chamberlain, with the weekend's best pitching performance: seven hits and one run in eight innings, with thirteen strikeouts and no walks.
    - Nebraska SS, and Cubs draftee, Joe Simokaitis: 4/7 with 3 R, 2 RBI, one HR and one SB for the weekend.
    - Mississippi two-way star Stephen Head: reached base 4 times and recorded save in opening game.
    - Tulane two-way star Micah Owings: saved the Green Wave from elimination with a complete game shutout on Sunday.

    Sunday Update #1: There were two series I did not write about extensively above, one because they didn't apply to our ulginess theme, the other because there was simply nothing to detail. The latter was the Texas-Mississippi regional, in which Game One was postponed after rain yesterday. Texas was up 2-0 when the game was left until Sunday, and were up 4-2 when closer Brent Cox entered the game.

    Cox, the Yankees second round choice and the 'National Stopper of the Year', proved to not be able to hide from the error bug that has been biting. En route to a four-run inning, Cox threw a bunt attempt into right field that started the inning in which Mississippi took the game for good. With the Yankees struggling to get back to .500 and Cashman's sure-thing draftee falling apart, one can't imagine Steinbrenner sleeping soundly tonight.

    The other ghost series of my weekend coverage has been the #1 seed Green Wave, who faced elimination at the hands of Rice. Tulane showed quite a bit of resilience, winning 7-0 in a game that was within one-run through eight innings. Micah Owings proved to be the hero of the game with a complete game shutout in which no Owl hitter reached second base. Somewhere, Mike Rizzo is smiling.

    WTNYJune 09, 2005
    Drafting Team Rankings (Part 1)
    By Bryan Smith

    Two days, over 1500 picks, and we're still alive and breathing. We hope that you enjoyed our coverage in the last 48 hours, as we attempted to bring you all the stories from the first round and beyond. The draft will still be on our thoughts going forward, as the sidebar will soon offer updates on which players have signed, and we'll be posting various updates on draftees and negotiations as the year goes on.

    With all the speculation behind us, now is as good a time as ever to take our first look at not the stories behind the players, but the teams in which they are now a part of. With exactly zero professional at-bats in all 1,501 combined, trying to guess who succeeded and failed might just be a fool's game. But that has never stopped me before, and this is hardly an exception.

    Today we'll review the AL organizations, while touching on their National League counterparts next week. I have attempted to put each team into various categories and have thrown in a surprise at the end. Enjoy...

    The "We Lost Orlando Cabrera, Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez, and All We Got Were These Stupid Draft Picks" Organization(s)

  • Boston Red Sox: Before the draft even started, anyone could have told you that Theo Epstein would walk away with a successful draft. That is just what happens when you combine a large budget, a well-rounded philosophy, and six of the first 47 picks. The club began the draft with collegiate players, choosing Jacoby Ellsbury and Craig Hansen, both should move through the system quickly. After those two came a junior college pitcher with a bit of polish and a lot of upside in Clay Buchholz. Next, Stanford second baseman Jed Lowrie will soon put pressure to Dustin Pedroia as Mark Bellhorn's successor. Their top six picks were rounded out by a pair of high school players; first Mike Bowden, whose frame has been likened to Roger Clemens, and catcher Jon Egan, putting a ceiling in a position the organization lacks depth at. Overall a very good draft, but a product of the number of selections more than anything else.

    The Organizations that Fell Asleep by Pick 110

  • Cleveland Indians: Like the Red Sox, Mark Shapiro and John Mirabelli head an Indian front office that has one of the most balanced philosophies in the game. This was on display in their first three picks this year, in which two college players sandwiched a high school athlete. Trevor Crowe was, as expected, the first choice after an exceptional career at Arizona. Next came John Drennen, the smallish outfielder from California with lots of pop. Finally, project Stephen Head will begin his career in the batter's box, shifting his powerful bat between first base and left field. But after these three picks, the Indians have very few other noteworthy selections...or at least ones that will be signed. The other big names -- Tim Lincecum, Cody Satterwhite, Tim Dennehy -- will all likely go unsigned and play at Washington, Mississippi and Texas, respectively.

  • Oakland Athletics: Maybe Billy Beane will prove me wrong. Maybe all the high school pitchers he drafted will make him a genius. Maybe Jason Ray will be the next great Oakland relief prospect. Maybe Justin Smoak will sign after waiting until the 16th round to hear his name. But in all likelihood this will not be true, and the A's draft will be defined by the successes of Cliff Pennington, Travis Buck, and maybe, Thomas Italiano. One thing that can be said about the draft is that it was daring, and given the A's exceptional track record with pitching prospects, it might just be a calculated gamble that comes out a winner.

  • Texas Rangers: Amazingly, the first team to fool Jim Callis in the draft were the Rangers, who raised some eyebrows after making John Mayberry Jr. their first choice. Mayberry's numbers were down this year, but there is no denying that Jr. offers a ceiling that few other college players can top. Personally I don't think he is anything that Adrian Gonzalez isn't, but time will tell. Luckily for Texas, backstop Taylor Teagarden fell to the third round after concerns about his bat apparently grew. At worst Teagarden looks to be a back-up catcher with good throwing skills, and at best, he'll be catching in Arlington full-time by 2008 or 2009. Unfortunately for the Rangers, the best this draft class will likely do is yield few players besides the two listed above.

    Monsters of the Middle (Rounds)

  • Detroit Tigers: When the dust clears from the draft and we can look at it for the first time legitimately -- in the offseason -- it is likely David Chadd will have made the best debut. Mind you that Chadd's name is not bolded - he is not a player, but the man behind the Tigers' picks this season. After watching Cameron Maybin slide down the top ten into his arms, I was continously impressed by the names Chadd was drafting. We have already written about Kevin Whelan and Jeff Larish, who are sandwiched by Big Ten stand-out Chris Robinson and Auburn outfielder Clete Thomas. The team also gambled on Warner Jones later in the day, giving the club six players that I had deemed top-five round talents...all without a second round pick.

  • New York Yankees: We usually don't associate the New York Yankees with good drafts, but this year is the exception. One player that I didn't write about the past two days that I was very impressed with in my research was C.J. Henry. The Yankees first pick was the athlete of the first round, and one that will begin his career at shortstop with the power and speed tools already in the bag. If handled correctly, Henry has the potential to be the best player of the draft, period. But after that the team went safer, choosing college players (mostly pitchers) from rounds 2-7. Brent Cox should move quickly through the system, and Zack Kroenke will bring quite a bit of polish to Tampa. The team then gambled in the eighth round with Austin Jackson, who would be the equivalent of a first round selection if the Yanks can pry him from playing basketball at Georgia Tech.

  • Minnesota Twins: The organizational opposite of the Yankees, one thing we can always expect from Mike Radcliffe and the Twins is a solid, well-scouted draft. This year came as no exception, as Minnesota was very solid through the first five rounds. Matt Garza was a bit of a surprise at a first, another pitcher following a year (2004) in which all they drafted was pitchers. Garza has college polish to go with very good raw stuff, and if harnessed, could meet Glen Perkins in a hurry. They also got a player in the late third round in Ryan Mullins that has potential that tops that of Perkins, with one of the better curveballs of the draft. Also in the middle rounds were high school phenoms (Henry Sanchez, Paul Kelly, Drew Thompson) and more solid college arms (Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing).

    One and (Hopefully Not But Probably) Done

  • Kansas City Royals: Well, it can definitely be said that unlike some years, this time KC made their first round pick count. Daniel Glass held nothing back from his pocketbook with the Royals highest selection ever, allowing them to draft the consensus #2 player, Alex Gordon. There is no question that Gordon was the best college player available, and his bat should help him fly through the Kansas City farm system. In case you missed it, Rich has already thrown the Hank Blalock comparisons out there. The problem with the Royals draft was not at the top, but after Gordon, they really fell apart. I don't really see a potential solid player after Gordon, just five catchers and three shortstops in the top twenty picks that were drafted because of organizational black holes more than anything else. Still, having Gordon turn into the next Blalock might make it all just worth it.

  • Toronto Blue Jays: Let me begin by saying that the Jays almost did not make this section, and instead Monsters of the Middle, but I went with instincts with their inclusion. We all know that Ricky Romero was a fantastic pick. A lefty that throws a good, hard fastball in addition to a mean slider and curveball that gives hitters multiple looks throughout the game. Romero is smart, tough and talented, and could be in the Skydome by 2007. My other favorite picks are Robert Ray and Paul Phillips, though the club is definitely hoping Brian Pettway adds to the lack of sluggers in the Jays farm system.

  • Seattle Mariners: This is where Jim Callis was not confused, but pretty much everyone else that follows the draft was. Before Tuesday it had appeared for weeks that Troy Tulowitzki was the Mariners man, even despite the fact that he plays the position in which Seattle is strongest at. But instead Bill Bavasi pulled a fast one and went with a catcher showing power that the organization has never seen...and mind you, they drafted Jason Varitek. Jeff Clement should be a good one, and allow the team to not be starting any fortysomethings behind the plate late in the decade. The rest of the diamond was not helped very much by the draft, where the next best choice (in my mind) came from the 12th round, in Craig Hansen's teammate, Anthony Varvaro. He and John Holdzkom should add a little pitching firepower to the mix, but still leave a little to be desired in the hearts of Mariner fans.

  • Chicago White Sox: Well, I guess the Sox wouldn't make this list if we gave credit for the unsignable players drafted, too. Jordan Danks would give this draft class a big push forward if the Sox gave him enough money to spurn Texas, a move that is not expected to happen. Instead the White Sox will likely close negotiations with Lance Broadway soon, and add another good prospect with a plus curve and average fastball to the fray (say hi, Brandon). Chris Getz, from Michigan, could be effective, but only in the way in which smallish second baseman can be.

    The First Signs of Head Scratching

  • Los Angeles Angels: Well, don't let me be too harsh on the Angels, they actually did a pretty nice job. They did very good in the middle rounds too, although I was not too impressed with Trevor Bell or Ryan Mount, their first two selections. Instead it was the next two -- P.J. Phillips and Sean O'Sullivan -- that really gives this draft some life. Phillips is the younger brother of Brandon with a similar skillset, and will be babied in the minors with the list of good middle infielders ahead of him. O'Sullivan is in the mold of draftee Mark Trumbo from 2004, a good two-way player from high school that Eddie Bane elected to take a chance on. O'Sullivan is better, though, and if his velocity returns to pre-spring levels, a first round talent from the mound.

    ANGELS UPDATE: After doing further research on the draft today, I have decided I was too harsh on the Angels in my article this morning. In fact, so much so that I would now be willing to call Eddie Bane's draft class one of the top seven (if not 5) classes in the American League. Bane was extremely high school heavy in his selections, but it paid off, as the team ended up with an astounding 11 players that made Future Game USA's top 100 HS list.

    First selection Trevor Bell will surely be the Angels top priority, as the two-way star ranked 12th on Future Game's list. Beyond that the club has many decisions to ponder in deciding which players to pursue, and which to allow to honor their college commitments. Here is a list of the ten other plans on the top 100, and their possible 2006 college:

    Name		College
    Mount		Fullerton
    Phillips		Georgia
    O'Sullivan	SD St.
    Matusz		San Diego
    Mendoza		Miami
    Hall		ASU
    Murphy		UCLA
    Suttle		Texas
    Milleville	Stanford
    Posey		FSU

    My guess is that the team goes hard after O'Sullivan, and also lands Phillips and Matusz. The bottom five on that list are almost guaranteed to go to college unless the club feels like setting some round bonus records again this year. The question marks will be Ryan Mount, their second round choice that has the 2004 CWS champs as leverage, and Mendoza, who could be headed to Miami. No matter what the Angels will walk away with one of the most impressive high school hauls in the draft, accelerating Bane's stock as a future GM.

  • Baltimore Orioles: While congratulations will likely be hurled around the office after David Chadd's debut in Detroit, I have to wonder if the same will be done with Joe Jordan in Baltimore. The first-time scouting director began his tenure off with a risky start, going with a high school riser early. I will admit that of everyone drafted in the first round, Brandon Snyder is the person I know the least about, and one I have a hard time believing is a better prospect than C.J. Henry or Chris Volstad. Still, even if he pans out, only Garrett Olsen from Cal Poly might make a huge difference after Snyder. Luckily for Jordan, expectations of good drafts and fruitful farm systems don't come with this job, but instead a guaranteed job until Peter Angelos gets angry and starts to blame people.

  • Tampa Bay Devil Rays: If someone asked you before the draft if you'd spend seven figures on a player that was once the third starter on his college team, what would you say? What if you also learned the player hadn't pitched competitively in a year? Plain and simple, if the Devil Rays were looking for polished arms there were better options, as even Lance Broadway, Cesar Carillo and Brian Bogusevic would have made more sense, in my mind. I think their second round pick, Chris Mason, has decent potential, and everything changes if they sign Jeremy Hellickson. But expect Iowa's best prep prospect to attend LSU in the fall, pitch three very good seasons there, and go in the first round in 2008.

    * * * * *

    I agree with many that it is too early to be seriously critiquing draft classes, so please add a grain of salt to my comments. And my rankings, for that matter, as I have simply done a quick-and-dirty estimate of how the fourteen AL teams ranked in their efforts Tuesday and Wednesday:

    1. Boston Red Sox
    2. Detroit Tigers
    3. Cleveland Indians
    4. New York Yankees
    5. Minnesota Twins
    6. Oakland Athletics
    7. Kansas City Royals
    8. Toronto Blue Jays
    9. Texas Rangers
    10. Seattle Mariners
    11. Los Angeles Angels
    12. Chicago White Sox
    13. Baltimore Orioles
    14. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    What are your thoughts? Am I giving the Tigers too much credit, or the Orioles not enough? Is Oakland's newfound strategy smart, and should Toronto consider a similar move? Please leave any draft recap thoughts in our comments.

  • WTNYJune 01, 2005
    Prospect .300 Club
    By Bryan Smith
    ...we like our nice, round numbers. The world of baseball even embraces them more than society at large. Oh, there are certain numbers not ending in a zero that resonate with baseball fans like no others. ... The truth of the matter is that we like to put players in nice, neat boxes. At the assembly line of statisticians, you can hear them packaging 40-HR seasons here and 50-HR seasons there (although Brady Anderson's 1996 campaign may have a hard time getting past the folks in quality control). Does anybody care that Gehrig and Harmon Killebrew each hit 49 dingers twice? I didn't think so.

    In his article entitled "Baseball as Numbers," Rich Lederer had it exactly right about the importance of round numbers in baseball. One number he didn't mention, however, was three hundred. Many baseball fans could tell you that the legendary Ty Cobb hit .300 nineteen different times during his career. But how many could tell you that while Harold Baines did it five times, he was within ten percentage points six other times? Or how about the next Sandberg-type Hall of Fame argument, Jeff Kent, who has only two .300 seasons, but six .290 years?

    Just like 100 RBI or 40 home runs, a .300 batting average is another bench mark to a good season in baseball. Despite the many problems batting average has, baseball fans old and new, sabermetric or old school respect a .300 hitter. So, in honor of USA's over-commercialed upcoming "4400 club" TV series, I decided to look at the ".300 club" in the minor leagues.

    While well over one hundred hitters are batting over .300 from low-A to AAA, I am only counting those that are solid prospects, say, C+ grade or better. The list proves to be very eclectic, with prospects we've known since before they began professional baseball, to some that I was introduced to yesterday. A .300 average during a minor league season is a good way to get noticed, to end up in a prospect book, to get a full-time Major League job. 45 prospects fit the mold, and we will talk about each today, attempting to discover which players are flukes, which will stay atop prospect lists, and which players will be next.

    Arranged in order of (what else but) their average, here is the list of the ".300 club":

    1. Eric Patterson, 2B, Cubs (MID): .397

    Quick take: Unfortunately a trip I made to see the Peoria Chiefs was during Patterson's time off with a hamstring strain, an injury that still could not slow the red-hot Patterson. Eric has all the skills that add up to being the Cubs next leadoff hitter: contact, speed, patience. His one problem is that Patterson is a hitter too advanced for the league the Cubs have him in.

    2. Chris Snelling, OF/DH, Mariners (PCL): .389

    Quick take: Or, should I call him Doyle? And yes, since Mr. Zumsteg started this little experiment, Snelling has been the prospect that he should have been years ago. Since Chris has the type of raw power that neither Shin-Soo Choo nor Jeremy Reed has, Snelling is the favorite for the future left field Mariner spot. Health allowing, of course.

    3. Conor Jackson, 1B, D-Backs (PCL): .385

    Quick take: This season, amazingly enough, Conor Jackson has either walked or doubled in more than 25% of his plate appearances. On the other hand, Jackson is striking out in about 5% of his strikeouts. Jackson profiles to have equal power and better patience than Lyle Overbay, probably the subject of many Doug Melvin calls this week given Prince Fielder's hot streak.

    4. Matt Murton, OF, Cubs (SOU): .379

    Quick take: Murton is not a .400 or even .379 hitter, in fact far closer to .289 (his last 10 games to go below .400), but he still is a solid prospect. Even with the fantastic contact-patience combination that Murton offers, he'll still need power to be more than a blip on Jim Hendry's radar.

    5. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels (CAL): .373

    Quick take: The first middle infielder on this list, Kendrick will also prove to be one of the most legitimate. Kendrick is both a fluid player and one good with the bat, and the combination often proves to be a good one. Kendrick currently has the label of second in the Angel everchanging middle infield struggle, but he'll have to prove himself in the Texas League before Stoneman starts doing anything drastic.

    6. Andre Ethier, OF, Athletics (TEX): .367

    Quick take: Before becoming a Billy Beane second round pick in 2003, Andre Ethier was quite the hitter at ASU. In 2002, Ethier hit .363/.459/.538 with the Sun Devils, followed by .377/.488/.573 in his final campaign. Dustin Pedroia, on the other hand, had OPS numbers of .849, 1.051 and 1.113 at ASU. This means that Ethier profiles to have less contact and power skills than Ethier, even with a bit of a patience boost.

    7. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF/DH, Giants (CAL): .360

    Quick take: EME has quickly become one of my personal favorites in the minors, as he could be the one given the job of replacing Mr. Barry Bonds. All this kid does is get on base, and also has some power that could even increase after returning to full health. I'm worried that EME will even be a liability in left field, and will need some sort of Carlos Lee-type improvement to even be sustainable.

    8. Denard Span, OF, Twins (FSL): .353

    Quick take: For each of the last two years, Span has proven to be a .270/.350/.310 hitter. That isn't good for a former first-round pick that drew the inevitable Torii Hunter comparisons back in 2002. Span is either a slow learner or an overperformer, and I'm starting to lean towards the latter. Nothing is saying that he can't be a good 5th outfielder somewhere, but he still profiles to be little more than that.

    9. Billy Butler, 3B, Royals (CAL): .348

    Quick take: He's good. As I've said before, Jim Thome good. Like Thome, Butler is going to make the slide across the diamond to first base. Whether that is for Teahen or Gordon remains to be seen, but it will be done. Plain and simple, cerebral and young hitters like this don't come around often, so the Royals should be counting their lucky stars. And learning their lesson, as they see Chris Lubanski flail his arms in the same lineup.

    10. Justin Huber, 1B/DH, Royals (TEX): .346

    Quick take: From Jim Thome to Mike Sweeney, if Butler moves to first it will push Huber to DH. He will hit enough for that position, which makes Mr. Baird look even smarter for finding a way to get him for Jose Bautista. Huber will actually take over for Sweeney in due time, assuming the oft-rumored first baseman eventually gets dealt. Expect Huber to become one of Buddy Bell's favorites quickly.

    11. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers (FSL): .343

    Quick take: This one I got right. LaRoche has broken out and more this year, taking the minor league home run lead and on pace to top the forty mark. If he keeps this up he'll push the Dodger 3B train each up a level, and has the potential to make Joel Guzman move to yet another position eventually. Simply put, LaRoche is a few walks from being one of the game's most elite prospects, and he's certainly putting pressure on Ian Stewart.

    12. Delmon Young, OF, D-Rays (SOU): .342

    Quick take: It wasn't long ago, May 4 to be exact, that Delmon was hitting .293. Since then he has been on a tear, continuing to hit both for power, and unexpected speed. Young truly is the entire package, and should actually get the move to Durham soon so he can be ready for a September call-up. If I were Chuck Lamar, arbitration situation be damned, I would name Delmon Young my 2006 starting right fielder soon.

    13. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, Mariners (MID): .338

    Quick take: Another breakout pick that looks to be succeeding. In his last 43 at-bats, worth about 1/3 of his season, Cabrera has just nine hits. Luckily for Cabrera, he had a .402 average before that, so there was a lot of room left to fall. Cabrera isn't going to offer much more than solid contact skills and great defense, but that would be enough for some offenses.

    14. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros (SAL): .337

    Quick take: Product of the Astros recent draft-em-from-Texas strategy, Pence was chosen one pick ahead of Pedroia in last year's draft. In fact, given that Pedroia, Kurt Suzuki and EME were all soon after him, hopes are high for Pence. He is fulfilling them so far in the South Atlantic League, making people quickly forget that Mitch guy that broke some short-season record last year. The Major League scouting bureau said of him, "very tall...good strength and arc in swing for power. Swings bat with authority." Sounds good to me.

    15. Javier Guzman, SS, Pirates (CAR): .337

    Quick take: People love the young, quick little shortstops that hit for high averages in A-ball. And while Guzman isn't a household name yet, like Pablo Ozuna and dozens of others have been, it probably won't take long should he continue streaks like what he is currently hitting. Guzman has some solid talent and good speed, but seems very similar to Ozuna in my mind, with little upside beyond the bench at upper levels.

    16. Matt Moses, 3B, Twins (FSL): .333

    Quick take: Another Twin late bloomer, Moses looks to be the former top choice that will stick on prospect rankings. Moses, unlike Span, has had a good excuse for some poor numbers, which was an ailing back. Those problems seem to be taken care of, and Moses is hitting well in a tough pitcher's park. People that hit there consistently tend to move on to good things, so expect Moses to solve Minnesota's hot corner problem before too long.

    17. Chris Shelton, 1B/DH, Tigers (IL): .331

    Quick take: Called up yesterday, Shelton looks like he will go down being a fantastic Rule 5 selection. His catching days are long over, but like Matt LeCroy, still has a chance at carving out a good career. With frustrations mounting about incumbent Carlos Pena, who hits from the left side by the way, expect a platoon to be implemented soon. For now though, the Tigers have given Shelton a brief look at the full time job while Pena hones his skills as a Mud Hen. Look for Shelton to try and take advantage of the small window of opportunity he's been given.

    18. Reggie Willits, OF, Angels (TEX): .331

    Quick take: Probably my least ranked prospect on this list, Willits was a no-name Sooner chosen in the 7th round before his early season heroics. Still, this is a guy with no power and reminiscent of last season's Josh Anderson, who made everyone notice his gaudy average and big stolen base numbers. A ton of speed and some line drive luck won't do you much more than a paragraph in an article like this...nowhere near legit prospect rankings.

    19. Mitch Maier, 3B/OF, Royals (CAL): .330

    Quick take: Chosen as the last pick in the first round a couple years ago -- a pre-draft deal because the Royals felt they could land Miguel Vega later -- Maier is starting to pay dividends after years of defensive confusion. His future position still remains in question, as Maier was never seen as a catcher, and his play at third was reportedly atrocious. Those stolen base numbers from last year are down, making me think Maier can't play center, and should start taking notes from Eli Marrero now.

    20. Carlos Quentin, OF, D-Backs (PCL): .327

    Quick take: He's good, and even with a fairly big drop-off since his silly good early season numbers, Quentin profiles to be playing right in the BOB before long. The Diamondbacks' quick turnover from basement feeder to division contender is admirable, and now new ownership has to juggle a team in the thick of things that also should be in rebuilding mode. Jackson, Quentin, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton. The faces around this offense will be changing for the first time in a long while soon, and Arizona must be ready to handle challenges thrown their way.

    21. Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates (IL): .325

    Quick take: Pirate catchers at the Major League level currently have an aggregate OBP of .287, so a little improvement is needed. Still, the club is getting enough in the CS and ISO departments to justify letting Doumit return to his real level. Still, I believe that Doumit -- even with his defensive issues -- will still be a better catching regular than Humberto Cota.

    22. Dan Johnson, 1B, Athletics (PCL): .324

    Quick take: An atrocious April led many to wonder if Johnson had simply been an overhyped, one-time wonder. Wrong they were, as Johnson has proven not to be some Graham Koonce or Jeff Liefer-type, and has legimiately proven that he's a better option than Scott Hatteberg. Expect Billy Beane to make some drastic moves with his team so far at the bottom, and by August, expect Dan Johnson to be playing in Oakland.

    23. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox (EL): .321

    Quick take: So much has been said, and it is all correct. Pedroia has the heart of David Eckstein, but the bat of Jeff Kent. His defense is as steady as they come, and all signs point to him being an All-Star up the middle. Cliff Pennington has Pedroia to thank for his early selection this year, as teams are realizing good numbers from good conferences can sometimes be a sign.

    24. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers (PCL): .320

    Quick take: Starting to get a little crazy, the hype is, considering Junior Spivey's struggles and Weeks' recent excellent play. The former second overall choice has salvaged what was looking to be a repeat season, and given Doug Melvin reason to consider immediate promotion. The Brewers brought up Gary Sheffield about 15 years ago, and the club now is lucky enough to have his second coming up the middle.

    25. Clint Sammons, C, Braves (SAL): .318

    A bit of an odd selection in the seventh round last year, Sammons is just another example that Roy Clark knows what he is doing. The Braves live and die in Georgia, and Sammons addition to the catching carousel makes three good prospects plus Johnny Estrada. That, my friends, is what they call surplus. But Sammons, a defensive specialist, looks more like a back-up than anything, possibly handling the duties for Brian McCann down the line.

    26. Josh Willingham, ?, Marlins (PCL): .317

    Quick take: At the very least, I hope Josh Willingham has Lenny Harris type opportunities off Major League benches for the next fifteen years. In the best case scenario, Willingham becomes a Mr. Fix-It for the Marlins, spelling Carlos Delgado at first, a corner outfielder, Mike Lowell, and even Paul Loduca on certain days. Willingham has enough power to hit it to Cuba, and not allowing him a batting practice to show that off of would be a horrible decision.

    27. Wily Aybar, 2B/3B, Dodgers (PCL): .317

    Surprisingly named to Baseball Prospectus' prospect lists, Wily Aybar has gained a small amount of fame in sabermetric circles. But, much of this fame was lost after Aybar was moved full-time to the hot corner, a position in which he cannot match Joel Guzman or Andy LaRoche offensively. His hope is to transform into Edgardo Alfonzo over night, and eventually supplant Jeff Kent at second.

    28. Adam Jones, SS, Mariners (CAL): .315

    This is what the California League does, it just chooses some middle infielder at random, and gives the kid some insane stats. Ask Josh Barfield or Erick Aybar what can happen with one too many Cal League at-bat, as prospect evaluators start to sing your praises all over the place. In an organization as stockpiled in the shortstop department as these guys, it's a shame to see this bit of success will delay Jones' inevitable return to the pitching mound.

    29. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers (SAL): .315

    Quick take: To succeed when moving from the low-A and high-A leagues, you need to walk. Alcides Escobar, despite having a bevvy of skills, does not walk. He is going to become overrated and overhyped, as people talk about his fluidity, his speed, his wrists. But Escobar does not have a good enough power to be frugal with the walks, and not enough walks to be frugal with the power. And in this scenario, there simply is no middle ground.

    30. Felix Pie, OF, Cubs (SOU): .312

    Quick take: Maybe it's the Cubs fan in me, but I just believe that we are seeing Felix Pie put all of his tools together. This is what a complete baseball player is supposed to like, especially one that will replace Corey Patterson in 2006. Patterson received his share of bad press in Chicago, and LaTroy Hawkins can attest how quickly that can get you out of the Windy City. If Felix Pie continues to be in this club, as well as hit for power, speed and show his typical good defense, it's embarassing Pie wasn't always the Cubs top prospect.

    Prospects 31-45, withholding comments:

    31. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Red Sox (EL): .311
    32. Brandon Wood, SS, Angels (CAL): .310
    33. Kelly Johnson, OF, Braves (IL): .310
    34. Matt Tuiasosopo, SS, Mariners (MID): .309; MLB scouting bureau says that he has the look of a young Jose Canseco
    35. Drew Meyer, UT, Rangers (TEX): .309; You think he lists Ryan Freel and Rob Mackowiak as his idols?
    36. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins (SOU): .308
    37. Hernan Ibibarren, 2B, Brewers (SAL): .308
    38. Brandon Sing, ?/1B, Cubs (SOU): .307
    39. Nate Schierholtz, 3B/OF, Giants (CAL): .305
    40. Ryan Sweeney, OF, White Sox (SOU): .303
    41. Brent Clevlen, OF, Tigers (FSL): .303
    42. Jason Jaramillo, C, Phillies (SAL): .303
    43. Aaron Hill, SS/3B, Blue Jays (IL): .301
    44. Mike Napoli, C, Angels (TEX): .301
    45. Todd Linden, OF, Giants (PCL): .300

    Sometimes it's the park, sometimes it's the age, sometimes it's the league, and sometimes it's just luck. Batting average without context in the minor leagues can be a poor tool. Fluctuation will likely see many players leave the .300 club at one point or another during the year, and they can only be so lucky to return. But so many times the context and the means don't matter, the end result will be enough to get noticed.

    WTNYMay 25, 2005
    Pressure Picks
    By Bryan Smith

    From the summer leagues all the way up to the College World Series, scouting directors have one job: haul in some solid talent each June. This puts a bit of pressure on them, as could be expected, since the product of drafts are their lone barometer of success. Good drafts yields a long tenure, bad drafts could have them advance scouting again in no time.

    While this pressure holds true across the league, it is centralized on the shoulders of the bad organization's scouting directors. Since good teams draft late in the first round, unearthing talent could just be viewed a blessing. That's overstating, of course, but scouting directors that consistently pick in the top ten are expected to bring in better crops. Just as the men running NBC has more pressure than your local cable station's head, Mike Rizzo has a whole lot more pressure on him this year than Logan White.

    Many options and considerations need to be weighed when making one of the earlier selections in the draft. While it is a nice idea to say "always draft the top player," ETAs and organizaitonal strengths often make that impossible. Spending more than seven figures on a position that will not be needed any time soon is foolish, especially in a draft with as many blue chippers as this one is offering.

    As push slowly comes to shove with the Major League draft, here is a look at the five most pressure-filled picks, and what direction it looks like the team is going. Also is what I would do in the situation, as I slowly type here from my armchair. Oh, what an easy job this is...

    1. Arizona Diamondbacks

    Baseball America recently reported that the Diamondbacks have narrowed their selection choices to four: Justin Upton, Luke Hochevar, Mike Pelfrey and Craig Hansen. On the other hand, Peter Gammons has long been reporting that the choice will be Upton, who Rizzo fell in love with the second he realized the Diamondbacks would have the draft's first choice. As Stephen Drew remains unsigned going into the last week, Rizzo will need to make this year's first-rounder count should he want to stay in charge.

    Upton has been heralded as a good player since his brother was making headlines, and scouts whispered that Justin might be better than B.J. While throwing issues at shortstop will likely force Upton to move down the road, his jaw-dropping speed will be more than enough for the centerfield spot. Upton has the combination of arm strength, speed and sweet stroke to be a future superstar.

    Projected Pick: Justin Upton

    If I was choosing the list would have been three names: Upton, Troy Tulowitzki and Mike Pelfrey. While I believe Alex Gordon is probably the top player in the draft, choosing yet another corner position player is just not feasible for a franchise filled with them. The Diamondbacks' weaknesses lay up the middle, where it appears Sergio Santos and Scott Hairston will just not be the double play combo that people envisioned.

    Upton would also be my choice if I was running the draft, and I would suggest that he immediately be moved to center. While B.J. was constantly thrown with the "everything but defense" criticisms, it would be best to get that out of the way now for Justin. Troy Tulowitzki makes sense here as well, but concerns about his range aren't all that different from what Arizona is currently going through with Santos.

    The other gaping hole in the Arizona farm system is in the pitching department, so going in that direction would make sense. But considering the poor relations between Jeff Moorad and Scott Boras -- not to mention the Drew situation -- drafting another Boras client like Mike Pelfrey could be devastating. Arizona also has a farm system filled with hitter's parks, which certainly destroy a pitcher's ego as he attempts to break into the Majors.

    My pick: Justin Upton

    2. Kansas City Royals

    It's all up to Daniel Glass. While the Royals have been bad for the entire last decade, it has been awhile since the club has this much direct pressure on a draft choice. Chris Lubanski allowed the team to dodge out of choice the last time they had a high selection, and the club is still shaking their heads at those results. Drafting cheap would be a huge mistake for a team that is headed in the right direction like the Royals.

    And if you listen to what is happening in Kansas City, they agree with me. The Royals denied the Cliff Pennington rumors, saying that they have little economic concerns about their second choice. In fact, the team seems rarely set on a somewhat-nearby player, the NCAA's best hitter: Alex Gordon. Even though the Royals have both spent a first-round pick and a high-profile trade acquiring third basemen in the last 12 months, letting a bat like Gordon's pass would be a sin.

    Projected Pick: Alex Gordon

    I have long said that Gordon is atop my draft board, and I think he fits in Kansas City. He won't fit in at third base, mind you, but they will have a spot for him. The best idea is to move Gordon to left, while pushing Billy Butler to first, continuing the Jim Thome comparisons.

    The Lubanski selection from 2003 pretty much derailed the likelihood of drafting Cameron Maybin, despite the Royals fearless nature in the past. It would be hard to convince Royals fans that Maybin is not just another all ceiling type, because he pretty much is. Sure his chance of succeeding is better than Lubanski's out of high school, but drafting him would simply be a public relations nightmare. The two logical choices are Gordon and Mike Pelfrey, both from schools near Missouri.

    My pick: Alex Gordon

    3. Seattle Mariners

    Dave Cameron has said over at U.S.S. Mariner that Seattle is really praying that Glass tightens his purse strings, so that Gordon will drop one spot. Or maybe the rumors of Boras forcing the Diamondbacks to sign a two-for-one, agreeing to terms with Stephen Drew and another Boras client, like Mike Pelfrey. In that scenario, the Mariners would be more than happy to draft Justin Upton. I mean he's the next Alex Rodriguez, right?

    But, it is more than likely that Seattle's top two players will be gone when Bill Bavasi heads to the conference call. So, the team will be forced to pick from the top of the second tier. Money is also of little concern to the team that did not have a choice before the third round last year, even if they spent record money in the round.

    When push comes to shove, the players on the Mariner list will be Maybin, Tulowitzki, Pelfrey and Ryan Zimmerman. With Maybin the club will get the pressure associated with drafting the next Griffey. With Pelfrey, an arm injury will add yet another blemish on the Mariner medical staff's tarnished resume. So, the team is likely torn between Tulo and Zimmerman, who many have speculated could play better short than Troy if he was moved. Still, don't expect the Mariners to think that outside the box, and instead look for Bavasi to go back to the California roots to take who would have been a local choice a couple years ago.

    Projected Pick: Troy Tulowitzki

    I don't like it. This is an organization with Jose Lopez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Tuiasasopo and Adam Jones. There is a lot of money tied up in those players, all of whom belong (currently) at the shortstop position. Yes, Bill James argues a farm system should be built from the top of the defensive spectrum down, but this is going a bit too far.

    Cameron Maybin, Baseball America's top high school player last year, seems to be getting overlooked by the Mariners. While the Griffey comparisons have been blown out of proportion as a result of their friendship, Maybin is definitely a special five-tool talent. While Seattle has Shin-Soo Choo and Jeremy Reed at the top of their system, neither plays center the way that Maybin profiles to.

    My pick: Cameron Maybin

    4. Washington Nationals

    This one has to count for the Nationals, as Jim Bowden's inexcusable offseason signings have limited the Nats number of choices in the top 100 this year. Major League Baseball is willing to allow Bowden to spend the majority of his draft budget in the top spot, so money is of little importance here.

    There is really very little drama heading into this choice. The Nats need a face of the franchise as they continue to try and sell themselves (not the park) to DC fans, and Brad Wilkerson is just not doing the job. While Vinny Castilla is the short-term answer at the hot corner, the long-term pick comes from nearby Virginia. Ryan Zimmerman has some questions surrounding his bat, yes, but he has Cal Ripken-like instincts on the left side. In a town forced to pay attention to the Orioles for the last thirty years, very few praises could be higher than that.

    Projected Pick: Ryan Zimmerman

    While I certainly understand the logic behind taking Zimmerman, I just disagree with the selection. The club has no intentions to move Ryan to short, where power concerns will be deemed less important. Even with wilkerson and Nick JOhnson, this is not an organization that profiles to slug in the future, and wasting a corner spot on a defensive specialist is not a good idea.

    I still believe that besides Zimmerman, there is an answer for a future franchise player in this spot. My partner, Rich Lederer, has thrown out comparisons Bobby Crosby and Miguel Tejada. For a town still immersed in the Orioles, that is high praise as well. Also, Troy Tulowitzki profiles to hit for power better than Zimmerman, at a much more demanding defensive position. Simply put, Cristian Guzman is just not the long-term answer up the middle.

    My pick: Troy Tulowitzki

    5. Milwaukee Brewers

    With pardon to the right side, there are very few positions that the Brewers should not be considering in this year's draft. True to their scouting director's ideology, this is the perfect team to use the "Best Player Available" mantra when drafting. Milwaukee's payroll is still very low, so Doug Melvin shouldn't have to do too much convincing in forcing the new owner to raise the draft budget.

    If dollars and cents are not worried about, the top players on the board hail from the mound. This probably also fits the organization best, as many of their one-time pitching prospects have reached struggles in the upper levels. The best pitcher on the board is surely Mike Pelfrey, who also currently pitches not too far from Milwaukee at Wichita State University. With three solid pitches in his arsenal, Pelfrey could likely be contributing by the time this team is ready to make a legitimate run.

    But, the Brewers will also be considering some offense with the pick. If Cameron Maybin is still around, it would be hard for the club to pass on a future superstar like him. Also, the Brewers likely fondly remember Jeff Clement's days of catching as a high schooler in Iowa, where he broke the national record for career home runs. Clement has since kept the power and increased his defensive prowess, making him a much more attractive pick.

    Projected Pick: Mike Pelfrey

    Pelfrey is, at least, who the team should be drafting. With Jose Capellan likely on the move and the likelihood of the team keeping Doug Davis small, the Brewers are going to need someone to back up Ben Sheets. Pelfrey has ace-caliber stuff, and is a horse, not to mention should be ready by the 2007 season. The only minus is the bonus demands that will come with his selection, likely around $5-7 million. He's worth it, no question, but those type of dollars given to an amateur tends to make owners go gun-shy under pressure.

    My pick: Mike Pelfrey

    That's all for today, and I would love to hear your 1-5 projections in the comments. I'll have a 1-15 projection at some point in the next couple weeks, with much more thought-out reviews of all the players available.

    WTNYMay 24, 2005
    Dandy Debuts
    By Bryan Smith

    Pick your poison. Two of the game's oldest stadiums, two of the Majors most passionate fans. On one hand you have 35,008 fans in attendance to catch the World Champions in the season's first Interleague series. On the other hand you have 39,334 fans in the game's other old stadium, in maybe the loudest regular season series that Wrigley hosts.

    Either way, their debuts were not going to be easy. But, this was not the first time the pair had overcome the odds, as neither was chosen in the draft's first three rounds. In fact, Brandon McCarthy was not selected from Lamar Community College until the 17th round in 2002, which is looking more like a steal everyday. Kyle Davies was, comparatively, chosen early -- the 4th round -- though Davies is the first of the seventeen pitchers chosen in that round to make the Majors.

    Both players were handled delicately by their organizations, as they pitched in short-season ball for two seasons. Their performances were similar, as Davies put up a 2.94 ERA between the Gulf Coast and Appy Leagues, while McCarthy was at 3.26 in the more hitter-friendly Arizona and Pioneer Leagues. Control was a problem for neither, with both showing K/BB rates of over 3/1 in the two leagues, with McCarthy's 2003 Pioneer performance at 125/15 in just 101 innings.

    Where it took Kyle Davies two seasons to go from low-A to the Southern League, it took McCarthy just one. Both players pitched in the Sally, Carolina and Southern Leagues during that journey, with Davies throwing a total of 283.2 innings, and McCarthy hurling 172. Double-digit strikeout rates for both during that time, as well as solid control and HR/9 rates around 2.00. Two peas in a pod. In fact, they were born just 64 days apart.

    Their debuts, however, were one day apart, as Davies narrowly beat his counterpart to the Majors. Neither was pitching fantastically in the International League, where again it was McCarthy's better control that separated their numbers from looking exactly alike. Coming into the weekend, statistically the two had few differences. At the Major League level, we might have predicted similar results.

    Scouts, on the other hand, might have seen the two a little differently. What would have given it away was the five-inch difference in height, though Davies made up for it in weight. Their fastballs were similar in velocity, and both threw good curveballs, and McCarthy's was known as one of the best in the minors. Davies threw four pitches, showing confidence in a change and slider as well. McCarthy didn't have the slider, though in addition to his four-seam fastball, he also threw a two-seamer.

    No matter how you slice it, the two always come out similar. And their debuts followed the trend, as both pitched very well.

    Kyle Davies' performance comes out on top, since he was the man that ended up in the win column. Davies shut out the world champs in five innings, throwing just under 100 pitches and allowing seven baserunners. McCarthy got the no-decision, as Luis Vizcaino blew the game (and what would have been a one run game for McCarthy) after allowing a Jason Dubois home run. Still, just five baserunners and six strikeouts in 5.1 innings is everything that could have been expected from who I called the best sixth starter in the game in our recent White Sox chat.

    For both I charted their first three innings pitched in the big leagues. Davies threw 49 pitches in the three innings, very unmethodical, though he allowed just two Johnny Damon singles and one walk. Of his total pitches, Davies threw 67.3% fastballs (33), 18.4% curves (9), and 14.3% changeups (7). Six of the seven changes that Kyle threw were with two strikes, as he registered both his strikeouts with that pitch. From a velocity perspective, his fastball was 88-92, the curve at 75-79, and the change 80-82mph on the TBS radar gun. I came away impressed by Davies curveball, but it is a bad sign in my eyes that in 49 pitches just one time did he register a swinging strike. To Mark Bellhorn.

    Surprisingly Brandon McCarthy was equally as unmethodical during his three innings, throwing 46 pitches. It would have been far more if not for a Corey Patterson bunt and Henry Blanco home run that came on first pitches. McCarthy did not throw the change that had been mentioned in scouting reports during the game, throwing 73.9% fastballs and 26.1% curves. It looked as if he threw the curve in two different ways, both the low-70s looping variety and a tighter curve in the high-70s. His two-seam fastball was thrown predominantly to Derrek Lee, and was registered in the high 80s, while the four seamer peaked at 93. McCarthy has a delivery that seemed a hybrid of Mike Mussina and Jack McDowell, for whom he has long been compared.

    It is unlikely that McCarthy and Davies will be able to survive after El Duque and John Thomson return from injuries. But for now the White Sox and Braves are among the lucky few teams that won't get bit by the injury bug, as their top pitching prospects were more than ready. Expect more of the same from both these two in the future, maybe even the same stats.

    Notes from the Minors
    - Another debut that has not generated enough publicity is that of Jeff Fiorentino, a surprise call-up from the Carolina League by the Orioles. The 22-year-old center fielder is excelling in Camden Yards, less than 400 AB since he was at Florida Atlantic University. Fiorentino has started in seven of the Orioles last eight games, and has a solid .792 OPS over his first 32 at-bats. While the CF job will still likely belong to Luis Matos when he returns, expect the former third rounder to go to AA or AAA instead of the Carolina League when he is optioned down.

    - Another centerfielder making a lot of noise is Felix Pie, who looks to finally be having that breakout season in AA. After showing great speed and defense in previous years, Pie is putting it all together this season, already with 13 steals and ten homers. With Corey Patterson entering arbitration soon and never living up to his potential, it might be smart for the team to start considering trading the former first rounder over the winter.

    Something must be in the water in Jackson, Tennessee, as Pie isn't the only one currently entertaining a breakout season. Matt Murton, acquired in the Nomar Garciaparra trade, has been flirting with .400 since the beginning of the season. Either he or Jason Dubois must be the Cubs next option in left, and with Pie could economically allow Jim Hendry to spend a lot on right field. On the mound, Rich Hill has been fantastic, striking out 77 in 51.2 innings, and creating some buzz that he'll be the next Cub to start a game should anyone get injured.

    - It seems a battle has developed for the minors third spot in the hot corner rankings between Billy Butler and Andy LaRoche. Butler, the Royals first rounder last season, is currently hitting over .350, has 10 home runs, and now 27 walks. LaRoche now has six home runs in his last four games, bringing his season total to 17 in the FSL, in addition to his .361 average. The edge still goes to Butler because of his youth and patience, but LaRoche is definitely making me look good for putting him on my breakout prospect list.

    Both players also face the problem of organizational depth at their position. Butler is in Kansas City where the team currently is sporting Gold Glove-caliber Mark Teahen, and will likely draft Nebraska third baseman Alex Gordon in a couple weeks. LaRoche is currently in high-A, and the Dodgers have Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman ahead of him. For Butler the move should be across the diamond to first, as they keep Teahen at third, put Gordon in left and Justin Huber at DH. It's too early to tell what the Dodgers should do, though promotions for Guzman and LaRoche -- and a position change for Aybar -- seem to be on the horizon.

    - Last season low-A's two best hitters were probably Ian Stewart and Daric Barton. So far this season, in the hitter-friendly California League, the two are not living up to expectations. Stewart now has a .233 average, and a 5/30 walk-to-strikeout ratio in just 86 at-bats. Barton is not doing much better, just 11 XBH, and a recent hot streak has raised his average to a modest .278. Their great 2004 seasons will allow both players a bit of room for error this season, but both were expecting to be generating consideration for promotions by now.

    WTNYMay 18, 2005
    Advance Scouting the Directors (Pt. 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, we saw that scouting directors can have all sorts of strategies. Some are ruled by their budgets, while others are beneiftted from large wallets. Some like the polish that college players offer, while traditionalists love the high school ceiling. Some prefer taking pitching early, some won't venture into that risky territory. And that was just the NL directors.

    Today we'll look at the AL group, where there are 12 incumbents, including a pair of the longest tenured directors. Again, here is the list, organized by organizational record...

    White Sox: Duane Shaffer (2001)

    First-round picks under Shaffer: Kris Honel (01), Wyatt Allen (01), Royce Ring (02), Brian Anderson (03), Josh Fields (04), Tyler Lumsden (04), Gio Gonzalez (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted (yr-rd): Chris Young (01-16), Jeremy Reed (02-2), Brian Anderson (03-1)

    Pre-2004 steals, or post-5th round picks: Chris Young (01-16), Brandon McCarthy (02-17), Antoin Gray (03-25)

    I am giving Shaffer credit for running the White Sox draft since 2001, but there is reason to argue he has been doing so since 1991. On the White Sox site, it says, "Shaffer was the White Sox scouting director for 10 seasons (1991-2000) before serving as senior director of scouting in 2001. He was promoted to senior director of player personnel in February 2002." If you include the 90s on Shaffer's resume, it might be even more damning, as the Sox were very bad in the first round. Of the 20 picks they had in those ten seasons, Kip Wells, Rocky Biddle and Aaron Rowand are the best. Only five of the players were ever regulars. But Shaffer's strong suit seems to be finding players in the mid-rounds, and his first-round talents seem to have improved in recent years. The Sox don't lean in any direction in the first, though maybe the team has begun to learn from one too many pitching busts.

    Orioles: Joe Jordan has been hired for the 2005 draft.

    Red Sox: Jason McLeod (2004)

    No first-round picks under McLeod.

    The Red Sox did not have a first-round pick in Jason McLeod's first draft last June, but he sure made it count after that. Second round pick Dustin Pedroia looks like a potential everyday player up the middle. After that, players Andrew Dobies, Tommy Hottovy, Cla Maredith and Mike Rozier all look like potential contributors. Unsurprisingly the Red Sox veer towards college players, though their largest 2004 bonus was to Rozier, a player that slid due to economic concerns. Should McLeod be able to continue to stockpile college players early in the draft, and prep slippers late in the draft, the Sox should continue to bolster what was once a weak farm system.

    Twins: Mike Radcliffe (1994)

    First-round picks under Radcliffe: Todd Walker (94), Travis Miller (94), Mark Redman (95), Travis Lee (96), Michael Cuddyer (97), Matt LeCroy (97), Ryan Mills (98), B.J. Garbe (99), Adam Johnson (00), Aaron Heilman (00), Joe Mauer (01), Denard Span (02), Matt Moses (03), Trevor Ploufe (04), Glen Perkins (04), Kyle Waldrop (04), Matt Fox (04), Jay Rainville (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Corey Koskie (94-26), Mark Redman (95-1), Jacque Jones (96-2), Matt LeCroy (97-1), Juan Padilla (98-24), Justin Morneau (99-3), J.D. Durbin (00-2), Joe Mauer (01-1), Jesse Crain (02-2), Scott Baker (03-2)

    Steals: Corey Koskie (94-26), Doug Mientkiewicz (95-5), Mike Lincoln (96-13), no 1997 steal, Juan Padilla (98-24), Terry Tiffee (99-26), Jason Kubel (00-12), no 2001 steal, Adam Harben (02-15), Errol Simonitsch (03-6)

    There may not be a scouting director more respected in the business than Mike Radcliffe. With apologies to Duane Shaffer, Radcliffe is the longest tenured director in the game. What amazes me most about him is that -- even with the Twins successful rebuild -- Radcliffe's name never comes up for General Manager or high-profile scouting director positions. Radcliffe has been remarkably solid with his first round picks in eleven years, with the only problem being Carl Pohlad's budget during that time. The Twins lean heavily towards high school players, though have proven that they will choose a college pitcher every once in awhile. Radcliffe has also had quite a few steals over the years, so be sure to always have your eyes on everyone Minnesota drafts.

    Angels: Eddie Bane (2004)

    First-round picks under Bane: Jered Weaver (04)

    Despite having been a well respected scout in the Angel system for years, 'director' was not attached to Bane's name until late in 2003. Maybe the most famous scouting director for his recent involvement in the scouts v. stats debate, Bane was also named by Will Carroll as one of the next batch of Major League general managers. Bane's comments from the debate lead me to believe that the Angels will be high school-heavy in their draft efforts, but like in 2004, will recognize if a very good college player is left on the board. Bane should also benefit from Arte Moreno, who led the club to sign first round-caliber talents Nick Adenhart and Mark Trumbo in the later rounds.

    Blue Jays: Jon Lalonde (2004)

    First-round picks under Lalonde: David Purcey (04), Zach Jackson (04)

    What is interesting about the Blue Jays is that of all the Major League teams I looked at, their general manager seems to have the most hands-on approach to the draft. Lalonde looks to be a product of philosophy more than anything else, a young man with a limited scouting history that buys into the Blue Jays college-first mentality. My belief is that J.P. Riccardi will continue to be top dog on draft day, which means that the team is not going to shy away from collegiate players. For more information on Lalonde, check out this Batter's Box interview shortly after his promotion.

    Rangers: Ron Hopkins (2003)

    First-round picks under Hopkins: John Danks (03), Thomas Diamond (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: John Danks (03-1)

    Steals: Ian Kinsler (03-17)

    With Grady Fuson gone this year, Ron Hopkins will finally get the chance to emerge from his shadow. Fuson pretty much led the Rangers' drafting efforts the past two seasons, but Hopkins has had the title of scouting director. Both men came from the Oakland A's, Sandy Alderson era, meaning that it will take a special high school player to make the Rangers not look to the NCAA. John Danks proves that they will do so, every once in awhile, but it would hardly be smart to go into the draft expecting it.

    Yankees: Gordon Blakeley (2003)

    First-round picks under Blakeley: Eric Duncan (03), Phillip Hughes (04), Jon Poterson (04), Jeff Marquez (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Eric Duncan (03)

    Steals: Tyler Clippard (03-8)

    Another confusing title, as Blakeley is officially listed as "senior vice president of player personnel." He took over the position for Mark Newman in January of 2003, but Newman continues to have a presence over the Yankee drafts. The Yankees system went extremely bare under Newman, but has had two solid drafts in a row under new leadership. Look for the Yankees to use their extra dollars when it counts, and also expect (in the long run, maybe not this year) more high school players than those from college.

    Tigers: Hired David Chadd for the 2005 draft.

    Indians: John Mirabelli (2000)

    First-round picks under Mirabelli: Corey Smith (00), Derek Thompson (00), Dan Denham (01), Alan Horne (01), J.D. Martin (01), Mike Conroy (01), Jeremy Guthrie (02), Matt Whitney (02), Micah Schilling (02), Michael Aubrey (03), Brad Snyder (03), Adam Miller (03), Jeremy Sowers (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Brian Tallet (00-2), J.D. Martin (01-1), Jeremy Guthrie (02-1), Michael Aubrey (03-1)

    Steals: Ryan Church (00-14), Luke Scott (01-9), Nick Pesco (02-25), no 2003 steal

    While Mirabelli has been the product of an organization that stockpiles draft picks, the Indians have not received great return under his rule. His first three drafts went pretty horribly, and while 2003 could make up for it all, the Adam Miller injury certainly hurt. Mirabelli is in a young braintrust running the Cleveland Indians, run more supremely by GM Mark Shapiro and assistant Chris Antonetti. The Indians will always lean towards college players, but the team has shown they will never shy away from high schoolers in the early rounds.

    Athletics: Eric Kubota (2002)

    First-round picks under Kubota: Nick Swisher (02), Joe Blanton (02), John McCurdy (02), Ben Fritz (02), Jeremy Brown (02), Steve Obenchain (02), Mark Teahen (02), Brad Sullivan (03), Brian Snyder (03), Omar Quintanilla (03)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Joe Blanton (02-1), Omar Quintanilla (03-1)

    Steals: no 2002 steals, no 2003 steals

    Kubota became scouting director before the infamous Moneyball draft, which of course was hardly the success that Michael Lewis boasted. The A's have actually struggled in the first round the past few years, though I'm not sure what influence Kubota has on the draft. There is very little question on what to expect from the A's, and that is all college, all the time.

    Mariners: Bob Fontaine (2004)

    No first-round picks under Fontaine

    In his first draft atop the Mariner scouting department, Bob Fontaine had to wait until the third round to choose. However, it looks like he made the choice count, as Matt Tuiasosopo looks to be a solid prospect. It is hard to tell what direction Fontaine will take the Mariners, though Bill Bavasi has always tended to lean in the high school direction. Trying to interpret Fontaine is similar to the newest batch, as we simply don't have enough evidence to make any conclusive comments.

    Devil Rays: Cam Bonifay (2002)

    First-round picks under Bonifay: B.J. Upton (02), Delmon Young (03), Jeff Niemann (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: B.J. Upton (02-1), Delmon Young (03-1)

    Steals: Joey Gomes (02-8), Chad Orvella (03-13)

    Bonifay has taken the unconventional route to scouting director, having served eight years prior to the job as a general manager for the Pirates. Bonifay was blamed largely for the Pirates demise from National League contender to the bottom feeder that offers fans little besides a beautiful park. But, Bonifay (like Gord Ash in Milwaukee) seems to be succeeding in a new environment, having made his early picks count with Tampa. While he had inherited a good team in the Pirates in the early 90s, it appears that Bonifay may be best suited to be in rebuilding mode. It looks like Cam tends to lean towards choosing high school players, but numerous picks with the Pirates -- and the Niemann selection -- prove that he will also draft NCAA kids given the right scenario.

    Royals: Deric Ladnier (2001)

    First-round picks under Ladnier: Colt Griffin (01), Zack Greinke (02), Chris Lubanski (03), Billy Butler (04), Matt Campbell (04), J.P. Howell (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: no good 2001 choice, Zack Greinke (02-1), Mitch Maier (03-2)

    Steals: no 2001 steal, Donnie Murphy (02-5), Luis Cota (03-10)

    Ladnier has had an odd run with the Royals, struggling in the draft in 2001 and 2003, but looks like he will succeed in 2002 and 2004. The trick is that while the Royals picked four high school players from 01-04, there are fundamental differences between the all-tool combination of Griffin and Lubanski, and the cerebral Greinke and Butler. If Ladnier learns from his mistakes and starts choosing heady players, look for more successes down the road. Also not to be outdone, the team brought in well-respected Denny Rowland last August to help with the 2004 draft. Remember that there are always economic concerns in Kansas City, but if Ladnier can have his choice, he'd probably always draft a smart, high school prodigy.

    WTNYMay 17, 2005
    Advance Scouting the Directors
    By Bryan Smith

    If you ask a scouting director what his most important possession is, you are going to receive a lot of different answers. Some will cite their draft board, others their radar guns, and of course the new trend, the laptop. Scouting directors across the majors approach the June Amateur draft differently, with ideologies ranging from all-college to all-project.

    While ideologies can change after learning from past mistakes, history does tend to repeat itself. We have seen sabermetric teams consistently draft college players for the last few years, while other teams are finding the A's trash (high school pitchers) to be their treasure. I decided to spend this week looking at the incumbent scouting directors across the Majors, and look for trends in how they have drafted in the past. It is also a good time to see their contributions since being hired, as bad drafts in the past could lead to change (or firing) in the future.

    Here is a brief synopsis of the 14 incumbents in the National League...

    Cardinals: Marty Maier (2001)

    First-Round picks under Maier: Justin Pope (01), Daric Barton (03), Chris Lambert (04)

    Best pre-2004 picks (yr-rd): Dan Haren (01-2), Brad Thompson (02-16), Daric Barton (03-1)

    Steals, or post-5th round picks: Blake Hawkesworth (01-28), Brad Thompson (02-16), Anthony Reyes (03-15)

    Since implementing Maier to run their drafts in 2001, the Cardinals have leaned heavily towards drafting college players. While his first picks in 2002 and 2003 were exceptions to the rule, Maier is almost all college after his first couple picks. If he goes with a high school player early, expect a skill position hitter with good plate discipline. The club has been good at unearthing talent late, and while the farm system is remarkably dry, Maier is hardly a bad person to have running your draft.

    Braves: Roy Clark (2000)

    First-Round picks under Clark: Adam Wainwright (00), Scott Thorman (00), Kelly Johnson (00), Aaron Herr (00), Macay McBride (01), Josh Burrus (01), Richard Lewis (01), Jeff Francoeur (02), Dan Meyer (02), Luis Atilano (03), Jarrod Saltalmacchia (03)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Adam LaRoche (00-29), Kyle Davies (01-4), Jeff Francoeur (02-1), Jake Stevens (03-3)

    Steals: Adam LaRoche (00-29), no 2001 steal, Chuck James (02-20), Steve Doestch (03-14)

    It is pretty obvious after seeing all those first-round picks that the Braves believe in getting compensation from their free agents. Clark has unfortunately had more busts than successes, though Adam Wainwright's AAA flame-out, Kelly Johnson's slow timetable, and many other excuses can't really be blamed on Clark. The Braves have a huge emphasis on high school players, as only Richard Lewis was drafted in the first-round from college. The other well-known Brave emphasis is towards southeast players, particularly those from Georgia. The Braves have produced a great farm system under Clark, though how much of that can be attributed to his drafting and their philosophy could still be questioned.

    Diamondbacks: Mike Rizzo (2000)

    First-round picks under Rizzo: Jason Bulger (01), Sergio Santos (02), Conor Jackson (03), Carlos Quentin (03), Stephen Drew (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Brandon Webb (00-8), Chad Tracy (01-7), Sergio Santos? (02-1), Carlos Quentin (03-1)

    Steals: Brandon Webb (00-8), Chad Tracy (01-7), Dustin Nippert (02-15), no 2003 steal

    Talk about college heavy, the Diamondbacks first 19 selections in the 2004 draft were from the NCAA. Sergio Santos was Rizzo's only high school pick, and a shortstop with plus power is always pretty intriguing. Rizzo's drafting looks to have improved greatly since 2000 and 2001, which were both fairly shaky drafts. It appears that Rizzo will use his first pick on Justin Upton this June, but after him, expect the club to draft quite a few college players after Upton.

    Padres: Bill Gayton (2001)

    First-Round picks under Gayton: Jake Gautreau (01), Khalil Greene (02), Tim Stauffer (03), Matt Bush (04)

    Best pre-2004 picks: Josh Barfield (01-4), Khalil Greene (02-1), Tim Stauffer (03-1)

    Steals: Jason Bartlett (01-13), George Kottaras (02-20), no 2003 steal

    While not as lauded as the A's or Blue Jays, the Padres have always been seen as a saber-savvy team. Their drafting philosophy leans in that direction, as the Padres normally choose college players with their first selections. Each year the team spends a semi-early choice on high schooler, as Barfield and David Pauley can attest. The Matt Bush fiasco should not be blamed on Gayton but instead on Padre ownership, as Gayton was sold on Stephen Drew weeks before the draft. Don't expect a first-round high school mistake this year.

    Marlins: Jim Fleming (2003)

    First-round picks under Fleming: Jeff Allison (03), Taylor Tankersly (04)

    Best pre-2004 picks: Logan Kensing (03-2)

    Steals: no 2003 steal

    After a fantastic run with the Devil Rays that is just starting to give Tampa dividends, Fleming moved to the Marlins for the 2003 draft. His first Marlin draft looks like it might have been a bust, as Jeff Allison ran into drugs and few other players have developed as Fleming foresaw. 2004 should yield a little better crop, and expect even more as the future, as Fleming is very highly regarded. He looks unafraid to shy away from drafting any player, as a high school pitcher like Allison can testify.

    Nationals: Dana Brown (2002)

    First-Round picks under Brown: Clint Everts (02), Chad Cordero (03), Bill Bray (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Clint Everts (02-1), Chad Cordero (03-1),

    Steals: no steals

    Give Brown some credit, this is a guy that was hired on a whim in 2002. He was given both a small staff and a smaller budget at his fingerprints, and managed to make his first two first-round picks count. Everts' injury was unfortunate, but Cordero looks to be one of the best picks from 2003 so far. None of Brown's drafts have had any depth, which I think is fair to attribute to his payroll problem. It appears as though this will be the first season in which dollars aren't superbly constraining, so Brown should start being graded from here forward. It looks as though Brown drafts according to best player on the board, with an eye towards holes in his system. Look for a hitter this year.

    Dodgers: Logan White (2002)

    First-round picks under White: James Loney (02), Greg Miller (02), Chad Billingsley (03), Scott Elbert (04), Blake DeWitt (04), Justin Orenduff (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Greg Miller (02-1), Chad Billingsley (03-1)

    Steals: Russ Martin (02-7), Andy LaRoche (03-39)

    What is very interesting about White is the fact that he has gotten so much press, but still has not produced a Los Angeles Dodger through his drafts. Baseball America has ranked all of White's drafts highly, likely because he caters to the high school heavy philosophy that BA tends to support. White has proven that he -- not Paul DePodesta -- will be drafting in Los Angeles, though expect a few DePo sleepers to sneak into the later rounds. Logan White is as well thought of as any scouting director in the business, and is a few less injuries from creating a star-studded resume. Expect the high school picks in the first round to continue.

    Mets: Have hired Russ Bove for the 2005 draft

    Brewers: Jack Zduriencik (2000)

    First-round picks under Zduriencik: Dave Krynzel (00), Mike Jones (01), Prince Fielder (02), Rickie Weeks (03), Mark Rogers (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Krynzel (00-1), J.J. Hardy (01-2), Prince Fielder (02-1), Rickie Weeks (03-1)

    Steals: no 2000 steal, Chris Saenz (01-28), Dana Eveland (02-16), Ty Taubenheim (03-19)

    Speaking of highly regarded scouting directors, few come more respected in the baseball business than Zduriencik. Known to stick to his draft board more than anyone, Jake is one of the many contributors that are taking part in a good-looking Milwaukee rebuilding process. But also like Logan White, not a lot of players drafted under the current scouting director have made the Majors (Krynzel and Weeks' Sep. call-ups). Milwaukee has two of the best prospects in the business in Fielder and Weeks, and their development is essential to Milwaukee returning to glory. Contrary to popular belief the Brewers will spend on the draft, Zduriencik sticks with his board, and Milwaukee is a little weak in the pitching department. Boras candidate anyone?

    Giants: Matt Nerland (1999)

    First-round picks under Nerland: Kurt Ainsworth (99), Jerome Williams (99), Boof Bonser (00), Brad Hennessey (01), Noah Lowry (01), Todd Linden (01), Matt Cain (02), David Aardsma (03), Craig Whitaker (03)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Jerome Williams (99-1), Jason Ellison (00-22), Noah Lowry (01-1), Matt Cain (02-1), Nate Schierholtz (03-2)

    Steals: no 1999 steal, Jason Ellison (00-22), Ryan Meaux (01-25), Clay Hensley (02-8), no 2003 steal

    Ignoring the Giants recent 'We don't need no stinkin' first-round pick' ideology, the previous thought was to go pitching-heavy early. The Giants loaded up with pitching in from 1999-2003, and had some great prospects from Ainsworth to Williams to Foppert and now to Cain. Either the club believes that hitting is a commodity that can be discovered in later rounds, or one that can be paid for at the Major League level. When you team Brian Sabean's desire to trade big pitching prospects and the Nerland ideology, not a lot of his blue chippers are going to make the Majors. Expect role players like Lance Niekro and Ellison to make impacts, and Nerland has still left enough young pitchers in the farm system for Sabean to pick and choose.

    Pirates: Ed Creech (2002)

    First-round picks under Creech: Brian Bullington (02-1), Paul Maholm (03-1), Neil Walker (04-1)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Brad Eldred (02-6), Tom Gorzelanny (03-2),

    Steals: Brad Eldred (02-6), no 2003 steals

    Plain and simple, the Pirates screwed up badly in 2002 drafting Ball State right-hander Brian Bullington ahead of prep shortstop B.J. Upton. But new scouting director Ed Creech saved face by publicly stating that he liked Upton better, but was both alone within the franchise and didn't have the pocketbook to stomach the pick. Creech has not really shown many tendencies with the Pirates, though it's obvious that he is constrained by his budget. Neil Walker last June broke a short trend of college pitchers, though I believe that was more geared at tuning the farm system than anything else. Creech will go with the best discount player on the board, and could be one more bust away from joining the unemployed list.

    Cubs: John Stockstill (1999)

    First-round picks under Stockstill: Ben Christensen (99), Luis Montanez (00), Mark Prior (01), Bobby Brownlie (02), Luke Hagerty (02), Chadd Blasko (02), Matt Clanton (02), Ryan Harvey (03)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Steve Smyth (99-4), Dontrelle Willis (00-8), Mark Prior (01-1), Brian Dopirak (02-2), Ryan Harvey (03-1)

    Steals: no 1999 steal, Dontrelle Willis (00-8), Brendan Harris (01-5), Adam Greenberg (02-9), Sean Marshall (03-6)

    The longest tenured NL scouting director, John Stockstill has both success stories and blemishes on his resume. Most consistent in his ideology is the tendency to draft players that have slipped due to economic concerns, using the Chicago market to his advantage. Stockstill also tends to spend late-round picks on players generally seen as hard to sign, and many are names that tend to pop up again: Khalil Greene, Taylor Teagarden, Jeff Larish, etc. Stockstill was unfortunate to come right before the Corey Pattersons and Kerry Woods were drafted, and also is likely bummed that Jim Hendry chose to include Dontrelle Willis in the Matt Clement trade. I'm not sure that Stockstill will have a lot more drafts with the Cubs at this pace, but expect more of the draft-the-undraftable strategy to continue in 2005.

    Phillies: Marti Wolevar (2002)

    First-round picks under Wolevar: Cole Hamels (02), Greg Golson (04)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Cole Hamels (02-1), Michael Bourn (03-2)

    Steals: Jake Blalock (02-5), no 2003 steals

    Of all the men on this list, Wolevar probably has the least impressive resume. The best player Marti has drafted is Hamels, currently on the shelf and flush with make-up and injury knocks. After that the list drops to someone of Michael Bourn caliber, a player that has no dream of making my top 100 prospects. This is quite concerning for a Phillie team that is aging quite fast, and will find their system particularly dry once the likes of Gavin Floyd and Ryan Howard (both before Wolevar) come through. We have seen him use his highest pick on a high school pitcher, college infielder and high school outfielder, so the best ideological guess is best player on the board.

    Astros: Hired J.D. Elliby for the 2005 draft

    Reds: Terry Reynolds (2004)

    First-round pick under Reynolds: Homer Bailey (04)

    Last season was Reynolds first draft, and it went pretty well as the club picked up the nation's best prep pitcher (Bailey), a toolsy college player (B.J. Szymanski) as well as a polished college shortstop (Paul Janish). Reynolds was all over the board with his draft, but appears to lean towards projects, as both Bailey and Szymanski were drafted years from the big leagues. With that being said, the Reds could use reinforcements quickly, and with a fairly weak farm system, we could see that ideology change the second time around.

    Rockies: Bill Schmidt (2000)

    First-round picks under Schmidt: Matt Harrington (00), Jayson Nix (01), Jeff Francis (02), Ian Stewart (03-1), Chris Nelson (04-1)

    Best pre-2004 players drafted: Clint Barmes (00-10), Cory Sullivan (01-7), Jeff Francis (02-1), Ian Stewart (03-1)

    Steals: Clint Barmes (00-10), Cory Sullivan (01-7), Jeff Salazar (02-8), no 2003 steal

    The last three drafts have gone nicely for Schmidt, who has picked up three good young players in Francis, Stewart and Nelson. The main problem for Schmidt has been drafting solid players that went unsigned, as seen by Matt Harrington in 2000 and Micah Owings in 2002. Add both those players to the farm system and you have much more depth than what the current system is offering, which is benefitting from a good overseas program. It seems as though Schmidt has decided to go with prep players earlier in the draft (most of the time), while shifting to college players in the middle rounds.

    I'll be back tomorrow with the American League directors...

    WTNYMay 11, 2005
    WTNY Best College Pitchers
    By Bryan Smith

    Following yesterday's article on the best hitters in college baseball, I wanted to tackle the pitchers. This year's group is fairly top-heavy, with a fairly substantial dropoff following the top four pitchers.

    I have not included Jered Weaver and Wade Townsend in this article, though you should forget about neither. While teams will surely have reservations about players that sat out a year, it might have been OK for two arms that were badly overworked in college. Neither has the stuff of the top two names on this list, but they definitely make the aforementioned group of four a stellar six.

    Onto the thirteen best college hurlers...

    First, we will look at the best right-handed starting pitchers in college baseball. That group is Luke Hochevar (Tennessee), Mike Pelfrey (Wichita State), Mark McCormick (Baylor), Tim Lincecum (Washington), Cesar Carillo (Miami), and Micah Owings (Tulane):

    Name	IP	ERA	H	K	BB	SLG
    LH	96.2	1.77	64	107	32	0.246
    MP	107.2	1.50	72	113	23	0.241
    MM	72.1	2.74	46	75	39	0.233
    TL	79.1	3.29	47	95	51	0.262
    CC	92	1.47	67	96	16	0.262
    MO	85.2	3.78	75	91	15	0.340
    (SLG is the opponent's slugging percentage against the pitcher)

    There is no question that the top two pitching talents in the draft are Hochevar and Pelfrey. The problem, like too many amateur stars, are that they are seen as tough signs through their affiliation with Scott Boras. Who is better is a coin flip at this point, though I like Pelfrey a little better because of control. While both pitchers should normally slot as top eight choices, we could see these players slip considerably depending on team's budgets.

    McCormick probably follows the big two, as his stuff has been boasted for the last two seasons. His problem, including when Rich saw him live, is the control. He is improved in that area this season, but I would be a little afraid of pitching a NCAA pitcher with a K/BB less than two. Lincecum has the same problem, as he has even more walks than McCormick. Tim is the best sophomore available in this draft, and one of the younger players, so teams will still be intrigued by the polish-ceiling combination.

    Cesar Carillo reminds me of Aaron Heilman, who was the 18th overall selection out of Notre Dame after going 15-0 as a junior. Carillo has yet to lose in college, including twelve wins his sophomore season. His stuff is not going to bring scouts out of the woodwork, but this is the type of smart, polished pitcher that you look for at this age.

    Owings is the wild card, similar to Jeff Larish as he returned to school after a poor showing in last year's draft. The difference is that Owings was a draft-eligible sophomore last season, and instead of returning to Georgia Tech transferred to Green Wave. Owings is a solid two-way talent but one that I believe will stick on the mound. He is still a little raw on the mound, and for some reason I see a future middle reliever, but Owings could make a team happy in the sandwich round.

    Moving onto the southpaws, we have Ricky Romero (Cal State Fullerton), Cesar Ramos (Long Beach State), Brian Bogusevic (Tulane) and Ryan Mullins (Vanderbilt). Their numbers:

    Name	IP	ERA	H	K	BB	SLG
    RR	104	2.60	81	116	29	0.323
    CR	107.1	2.10	84	83	13	0.282
    BB	89	2.83	81	89	30	0.313
    RM	59.1	3.49	57	53	18	0.376

    Like the right-handers, there is no question who is on top here. Ricky Romero is a fantastic talent that after living in Jason Windsor's shadow last year has stepped out in a big way. You have heard about his three solid pitches and their fantastic movement, but notice all those strikeouts and his 4/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His best attribute may be the lack of Scott Boras in his representation group, which could aid in making him the top pitcher drafted.

    Next is Brian Bogusevic, a hard-throwing leftie that has stepped up big at Tulane. Like Owings he still is a little raw at pitching, but I believe that his ceiling is far greater than that of Owings. Look for this kid in the College World Series, because he will surely not let the Green Wave go down without a fight. Ryan Mullins is similar to Romero in the fact that he lived in a shadow last year, that of Jeremy Sowers, and has disappointed a bit in his junior campaign. Mullins is nowhere near the talent that Sowers was, but he is a fairly safe choice in the supplemental first round.

    Last but not least we have Cesar Ramos, who has taken over Friday night pitching for the Dirtbags since Jered Weaver moved on. Here is what Rich said about Ramos after seeing him this spring:

    Ramos, who has been likened to former Dirtbag and current Red Sox lefty Abe Alvarez, has big shoes to fill. The preseason All-American has been designated as the team's Friday night starter, an honor previously bestowed on last year's College Player of the Year Jered Weaver. Ramos and Alvarez, who Theo Epstein was pleased to take with Boston's second-round pick in the 2003 draft, are both 6'2", 190-pound southpaws with exceptional control and command of their fastballs and off-speed pitches.

    With the increased popularity of spending first-round picks on college closers, here is a look at this year's batch. Craig Hansen (St. John's) leads the pack, with Brent Cox (Texas) a close second. I have also made a pre-emptive move in listing Jason Neighborall (Georgia Tech) here. Their numbers:

    Name	IP	ERA	H	K	BB	SLG
    CH	47.1	1.14	26	62	12	0.222
    BC	52.2	1.88	39	63	10	0.255
    JN	50	6.30	44	66	45	0.288

    Teams are going to be afraid of drafting Jason Neighborall this season after seeing 45 walks in 50 innings from the Yellow Jackets' Friday night starter. I wouldn't be too afraid, as I believe the smart move would be to draft him and immediately move him to the closer spot. Neighborall has a big fastball and fantastic strikeout numbers, along with allowing very few extra-base hits this year. With that being said, he is represented by Scott Boras who will quickly teach him if he doesn't like the role he is drafted into, not signing could be his best move.

    The best of the group is undoubtedly Craig Hansen, who might just be the best closer to come out of college yet. The successes of Chad Cordero and Huston Street will make Hansen both a hot and expensive commodity. He is yet another Boras client, and will be demanding big dollars since he could contribute as early as September. In my mind, the relieving-starved Mets would be crazy not to draft Hansen ninth, and make him the best-paid college closer yet.

    Brent Cox is last, after emerging as the Longhorn closer this season with Huston Street's departure. Cox is a solid pick that could end up like Cordero, who went a little unnoticed coming in as the second-ranked closer behind Chad Cordero. Plenty of teams are having bullpen issues this year, and spending a choice on 2005 and 2006 would not be a bad decision.

    Finally, here is my attempt at ranking the thirteen players. Again, these rankings are far more stat-heavy than anything else, but it doesn't appear to be too far off other lists.

    1. Mike Pelfrey, RHP/SP- Wichita State
    2. Luke Hochevar, RHP/SP- Tennessee
    3. Ricky Romero, LHP/SP- Cal State Fullerton
    4. Craig Hansen, RHP/RP- St. John's

    5. Mark McCormick, RHP/SP- Baylor
    6. Brian Bogusevic, LHP/SP- Tulane
    7. Brent Cox, RHP/RP- Texas
    8. Cesar Carillo, RHP/SP- Miami
    9. Cesar Ramos, LHP/SP- Long Beach State
    10. Tim Lincecum, RHP/SP- Washington
    11. Ryan Mullins, LHP/SP- Vanderbilt
    12. Micah Owings, RHP/SP- Tulane
    13. Jason Neighborall, RHP/P- Georgia Tech

    WTNYMay 10, 2005
    WTNY Best College Hitters
    By Bryan Smith

    To continue shooting from the armchair, if I was a Major League general manager, there are eighteen college hitters that I would consider taking in the first round. Eighteen players that I would offer six- or seven-figure bonuses to; eighteen that I would hope grace prospect lists before taking the field in my uniform. Should I be Walt Jocketty, with the last pick in the first round, my draft board of college hitters gets thrown out should number eighteen be chosen ahead of me.

    I will admit that I do not have the bias towards college players like many of my peers, though I understand it is the safer choice. This year's crop is fairly deep in middle-of-the-road prospects, with one blue chipper, and a whole bunch that grade out as "solid" after that. With the June Amateur Draft a little less than a month away, and the College World Series inching closer and closer, I thought it time to look a how the eighteen were doing.

    Here is a brief position-by-position analysis of the best hitters available from the NCAA this year...

    At the catching position, the best hitters available are Jeff Clement (USC), Taylor Teagarden (Texas) and Nick Hundley (Arizona). Here are the statistics of the three through the weekend:

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    JC	0.354	0.639	35/27	4	147
    TT	0.327	0.497	35/34	3	165
    NH	0.345	0.673	35/36	9	171

    I have concerns about this group, as no player in this group is anywhere near perfect. Clement has a long documented history of power, including 21 home runs as a Freshman, but I wonder what else will translate to the pros. He is somewhat reminiscent to former USC backstop Eric Munson, another highly thought of Trojan catcher that never justified his top-10 selection. Clement has some defensive inadequacies to overcome, but his power and patience behind the plate will make him an early selection.

    Taylor Teagarden is everything that Clement is not, a fabulously talented catcher with offensive questions. Teagarden will likely rise up a system quickly with a good defensive grades all over his resume. If I were drafting Taylor I would worry that I might be drafting a back-up catcher, as his bat might not make the jump well. Teagarden has very little power, but hopes to turn into a Brad Ausmus type behind the plate.

    The sleeper of the group could be Hundley, who has out-hit Clement while playing better defense with the Wildcats. All these catchers have good patience, though Hundley has proven to be the most apt to strikeout of the group. There is a decent chance that he will slip in the draft to the twenties or so, but Hundley could be a similar pick to Kurt Suzuki last year, a player the A's are thanking their lucky stars for drafting.

    Three interesting stories make up the group I selected to be a part of the list. They are Stephen Head (Miss.), John Mayberry Jr. (Stanford), and Jeff Larish (Az. St.). Their numbers:

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    SH	0.316	0.615	18/31	3	187
    JM	0.308	0.485	22/26	3	169
    JL	0.328	0.678	39/45	8	180

    Quite the group at first, as we have one of the nation's best two-way players, a former first-rounder with Major League pedigree, and the nation's best Senior who overcame a tough junior season. Head is the best of the group, a southpaw at Mississippi known for both his bat and his left arm. I love that Head has light-tower potential, doesn't strike out very much, and is very athletic. With that being said, the walks and batting average are fairly worrisome for a future corner player, and I do wonder whether Head will become an all-power, nothing else guy in the future.

    It seems as though John Mayberry Jr. is a poor man's Stephen Head, especially with low numbers in the walks and strikeouts column. Mayberry's power has evaporated this season, and his batting average is the lowest on this list. There is no doubt in my mind that Mayberry comes into the draft a bit overrated, as his father may have more to do with his draft position than his junior season numbers.

    Jeff Larish has the best numbers of the group by far, with the typical power-patience combination you look for in a first baseman. Larish was projected to be a first-round choice last year, but really struggled and decided to return to Tempe for his senior season. This definitely creates concerns that Larish will be the type that takes a while to adjust to levels, which is often the problem of a quad-A player.

    Only one player at second base, but an impressive one in Jed Lowrie (Stanford), his numbers:

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    JL	0.313	0.594	28/29	3	160

    A few seasons ago, the Chicago Bulls drafted Kirk Hinrich out of Kansas with their first-round choice in the NBA Draft. A proven player from a well-respected school, Hinrich had less risk than any player in the draft. Lowrie could very well be baseball's Hinrich, as I don't believe his ceiling is that of some players, but he should be somewhat of a contributor in short order. I think the best explanation of Lowrie's skillset was given by Craig Burley, who chose him second among any second baseman younger than 24 years old alive:

    A natural shortstop, Lowrie moved to second base as a freshman and was named the best defensive second baseman in the Pac-10 by Baseball America, so we know he can play there...What is really attractive, though, is his bat. For all intents and purposes, Lowrie was the best hitter in the NCAA last year (he ranked at the top of my Adjusted Hitters Rankings until the very end of the season and ended up third in a virtual dead heat). What's more impressive is that he did this as a sophomore. He does everything -- he hits for average, he hits for a ton of power, and he takes his walks. And he did it all against some of the toughest competition in college ball.

    Moving to the left side, we have quite the talented group at shortstop with Tyler Greene (Georgia Tech), Troy Tulowitzki (Long Beach St.) and Cliff Pennington (Texas A&M). Great numbers for shortstops, too:

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    TG	0.340	0.553	27/54	25	197
    TT	0.372	0.673	10/24	2	113
    CP	0.363	0.563	28/22	23	190

    Top to bottom, the shortstops are in an intense battle with third basemen for the most talented position on this list. It all starts with Troy Tulowitzki, the Long Beach State shortstop that my partner Mr. Lederer has been boasting for two years. Troy has a .301 ISO this season, despite playing in an extreme pitcher's park in Blair Field. His power, teamed with his size (6-3) and arm (Big West's best) have drawn comparisons to former Dirtbag Bobby Crosby for years. He doesn't walk as much as his fellow shortstops, but Tulo has just about everything else to offer a Major League team.

    Right behind Troy is Tyler Greene, who I contemplated ranking as the top shortstop in the draft. Greene was a second-round choice by the Atlanta Braves out of high school, when it was believed that Tyler already had Major League defense. While only improving in that area since then, Greene has slowly quieted those that doubted his bat. Tyler runs very well, walks a lot, and has added a power element to his game that gives him a little bit of everything. I do wonder whether he will consistently hit when reaching the professional level, and if he can stop striking out in about 27% of his at-bats.

    The least-known player of the group is Cliff Pennington, known as a scrappy player that impresses scouts and statheads alike. Pennington has great contact skills, runs well, and shows very good defense up the middle. What power he has shown this season is unlikely to transfer over much professionally, though he could very well be hitting 30 doubles a year in the Bigs. I might go as far to say that Pennington is the most likely of the group to be a league-average player across the board in the Majors, as Cliff looks to be everything Russ Adams was coming out of college.

    The hottest prospects may be at the hot corner this year, with Alex Gordon (Nebraska) leading the way, followed by Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia) and Ryan Braun (Miami):

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    AG	0.404	0.749	48/26	19	171
    RZ	0.402	0.614	23/9	14	184
    RB	0.417	0.768	29/27	21	168

    Three hitters above .400? OK, the men on the hot corner win for the most stacked group. Gordon is obviously not just on top of this heap, but I have said numerous times before that he sits atop my draft board. His combination of huge power, fantastic patience, and speed are unparalleled in this draft. Gordon has the athleticism to move to left should the Royals and Mariners ask, and his numbers already indicate a greater Major League career ahead than that of Major League all-star Darin Erstad.

    In the close battle for second, Ryan Zimmerman wins out ahead of Braun, as Zimmerman is maybe the best defensive player in this draft. Combine his future Gold Glove with his great contact skills, just nine strikeouts this year, and you can see why Zimmerman is so well thought of. My worry is that Zimmerman will not have hot corner power, as everything I heard calls him a doubles hitter. Still, Ryan was the most prolific extra-base hitter on the USA National Team last summer, so there is some potential there. Bill Mueller is the current comparison, though I think Zimmerman could even top the 2003 batting champion down the road.

    Still with all that being said about Zimmerman, he only beat out Miami third baseman Ryan Braun by a little bit. Braun has like offensive numbers to Alex Gordon, and Patrick Ebert has projected him to be a future 20-20 player. John Sickels has also touted Braun in the past, as there is very little to dislike with this kid. Miami doesn't have their normal crop of great players to give the draft this year, but Braun is the rare example of a great hitter from a historic program that just isn't garnering any respect.

    The outfield encompasses five of the eighteen this year, Jeremy Slayden (Georgia Tech), Travis Buck (Az. St.), Trevor Crowe (Arizona), Daniel Carte (Winthrop) and Jacoby Ellsbury (Oregon St.):

    Name	BA	SLG	BB/K	SB	AB
    JS	0.349	0.570	23/42	1	186
    TB	0.389	0.563	17/29	17	208
    TC	0.426	0.775	30/26	20	204
    DC	0.318	0.591	17/48	9	198
    JE	0.446	0.640	25/8	20	175

    This is my favorite group not because it has the best group of players, but instead has two players that I believe have flown under the radar.

    Those two are a pair of speedsters that control the strike zone as well as anyone in the powerful Pac-10. The first is Arizona outfielder Trevor Crowe, who is doing just about everything with the Wildcats this season. Where Brian Anderson hit .366 with a .668 slugging in his last season, Crowe is well over .400 with a SLG over .100 points higher. He seems to be everything and more that Anderson was, and should be drafted ahead of the 15th slot that Brian was, and paid in excess of Anderson's $1.6 million.

    My other sleeper is Jacoby Ellsbury, who looks like a future leadoff hitter from Oregon St. Ellsbury has struck out an amazing eight times in 175 at-bats this year, while hitting nearly .450, swiping 20 bases and walking a lot.

    The top player of the group is Jeremy Slayden, the highly regarded Georgia Tech outfielder that has rebounded from injury well this season. Slayden is projected to be a right fielder in the future, showing good power and patience this year with the Yellow Jackets. My concern is that Slayden looks nothing more than a left-handed Matt Murton -- and while that hasn't looked like criticism through 45 games -- it isn't the highest praise for a top twenty selection.

    The generally overrated pair of the fivesome are Travis Buck and Daniel Carte. While Buck was Baseball America's top-ranked outfielder heading into the season, unimpressive BB and ISO numbers have led to a freefall this year. Carte has just OK numbers, but that isn't great when you realize he plays at Winthrop. He is a project, similar in that regard to B.J. Szymanski from last year.

    *****

    So, with all that being said, I think we have enough evidence for a ranking. Mind you that salt should be taken, as second-hand information and college statistics might not be enough. So, here is my inaugural attempt to rank the best hitters in the NCAA:

    1. Alex Gordon, 3B- Nebraska
    2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS- Long Beach St.
    3. Tyler Greene, SS- Georgia Tech
    4. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B- Virginia
    5. Trevor Crowe, OF- Arizona
    6. Jeff Clement, C- USC
    7. Ryan Braun, 3B- Miami
    8. Jeremy Slayden, OF- Georgia Tech
    9. Cliff Pennington, SS- Texas A&M
    10. Stephen Head, 1B- Mississippi
    11. Taylor Teagarden, C- Texas
    12. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF- Oregon St.
    13. Jeff Larish, 1B- Arizona St.
    14. Jed Lowrie, 2B- Stanford
    15. Travis Buck, OF- Arizona St.
    16. John Mayberry Jr., 1B- Stanford
    17. Nick Hundley, C- Arizona
    18. Daniel Carte, OF- Winthrop

    WTNYMay 04, 2005
    2005 WTNY April 75 (Part Two)
    By Bryan Smith

    We'll jump right into the list today. If you have any questions about the format, please refer to yesterday's entry. Enjoy...

    26. Kyle Davies- SP- Atlanta Braves (AAA)
    April Numbers: 2-0, 26/30, 9ER (2.70 ERA), 23/9, 3

    Atlanta has received good production from their rotation this year, but don't be surprised if Kyle Davies replaces Horacio Ramirez before long. Davies is pitching very well in the International League, and has all the tools to be a third (maybe second) starter in the Majors.

    27. Ryan Howard- 1B- Philadelphia Phillies (AAA)
    April Numbers: 25/75 (.333), 15/26 (.441), 8-0-4 (.600); 0/0

    It's possible that Jim Thome's injury will give Ryan Howard enough room to establish himself, possibly getting included in a trade during midseason. Howard has proved he has power and is walking at great levels, now the strikeouts and lack of athleticism are the only flaws we can cite.

    28. Ian Kinsler- 2B- Texas Rangers (AAA)
    April Numbers: 23/86 (.267), 6/18 (.323), 8-0-4 (.500); 1/2

    Another player that should be up before long, because I keep expecting Alfonso Soriano to get traded. Jamey Newberg wondered aloud how someone with such a good Spring Training could be having such an average start to the season, but Kinsler is starting to come around with the bat. This guy is not going to be fantastic, but he'll be a solid player for 15 seasons, in my opinion.

    29. Michael Aubrey- 1B- Cleveland Indians (AA)
    April Numbers: 23/75 (.307), 5/13 (.349), 4-0-3 (.480); 1/1

    Another player I will admit to having overrated before the season is Aubrey, another player in the Sean Casey mold. Aubrey did not walk enough this April, and since I doubt he will ever slug .500 in the Majors, something close to a .400 OBP will be important.

    30. Jeff Niemann- SP- Tampa Bay Devil Rays (A+)
    April Numbers: 0-1, 6/11.1, 5ER (3.97 ERA), 17/5, 0

    This is a conservative placement for Niemann, who I think could very well turn out to be the best player drafted in 2004. While the MLB scouting service said last year that Niemann would be "quick to the ML level," I disagree. If I were the Devil Rays I would be extremely conservative with Jeff, giving him all of this year and most of next year in the minors. The 6-9 rightie has some control issues that need to be fixed in the California or Southern Leagues, not in the Majors. Still, given that flaw, Niemann's ceiling is insanely high. He already is in possession of four good pitches, including a fastball that he can really dial up when needed. He'll likely move up to the Southern League at some point, where Chuck Lamar really should keep him for the rest of the year.

    31. Anthony Reyes- SP- St. Louis Cardinals (AAA)
    April Numbers: 2-1, 19/25.1, 9ER (3.20 ERA), 26/4, 4

    Dan Haren was extremely well thought of by the St. Louis organization, who used him prominently in the playoffs last year. The addition of Mark Mulder, and the emergence of Anthony Reyes allowed for Haren's exit. Reyes has bounced back from injuries flawlessly, and is proof that we have a LONG way to go to being able to decipher college statistics.

    32. Brian McCann- C- Atlanta Braves (AA)
    April Numbers: 17/61 (.279), 4/11 (.313), 5-1-4 (.590); 0/0

    Man, don't the Braves teach their players what a base on balls is? McCann has his flaws -- those walks and some sketchy defense -- but he will almost certainly be an improvement over Johnny Estrada (c. 2005) when he arrives in 2007. Power like this behind the plate is rare, and again, credit must be given for this organization's ability to find talent.

    33. Justin Verlander- SP- Detroit Tigers (A+)
    April Numbers: 3-1, 14/23, 3ER (1.17 ERA), 30/5, 0

    I thought he was a reach being drafted second, I even had him behind Townsend, but it shows why I'm not working for a Major League team. Verlander's transition to professional ball has started extremely well, and he might be up for a promotion sooner rather than later. The Major League scouting service calls him a "franchise type pitcher," and with Jeremy Bonderman, Dave Dambrowski's job has gotten a little safer.

    34. Jon Papelbon- SP- Boston Red Sox (AA)
    April Numbers: 2-1, 20/22.2, 7ER (2.78 ERA), 24/2, 5

    I don't know if the Red Sox pitching prospects are only pitching to Brave prospects, but they aren't walking anyone. I predicted before the season that Papelbon and Lester would be the breakout combination of the year, and while I still like Lester, I may have chosen the wrong person to team with Papelbon. The only thing to criticize Papelbon for are those home runs, but Jon should move to Pawtucket soon.

    35. Adam Miller- SP- Cleveland Indians (DL)
    April Numbers: Injured

    Miller is back throwing after a brief scare in which I thought he might be gone for the season. He probably won't be back until summer, but Miller still has the potential to rank this highly on this list. I'm still disappointed he got hurt, but that's what happens to pitching prospects.

    36. Franklin Gutierrez- OF- Cleveland Indians (AAA)
    April Numbers: 15/58 (.259), 11/15 (.377), 4-0-2 (.431); 4/7

    I really thought Cleveland was going to have a very good offense this year, as they had depth at every position. Not so much. Gutierrez has seen the likelihood of a future job in Jacobs Field rise this year, and he should be playing alongside Grady Sizemore in short order.

    37. Felix Pie- OF- Chicago Cubs (AA)
    April Numbers: 29/81 (.358), 7/16 (.409), 10-2-3 (.642); 8/13

    Well, I said this had to be the year those tools started to result in production, and he is doing it this year. Pie is running wild in the Southern League, as well as spraying extra-base hits all over the place. Pie has risen to the top spot in the Cub system, and still profiles to be their leadoff hitter in short time.

    38. Chuck Tiffany- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers (A+)
    April Numbers: 4-1, 16/27, 5ER (1.67 ERA), 33/13, 1

    I was a bit worried that my ranking of him (higher than most outlets) was a little too much, but Tiffany is proving that the way he ended last season was not a fluke. Tiffany is another great arm in a loaded Los Angeles system, and should be also make the traditional great Dodger Vero Beach to Jacksonville move soon.

    39. Shin-Soo Choo- OF- Seattle Mariners (AAA/MLB)
    April Numbers: 14/46 (.304), 8/12 (.407), 2-0-1 (.413); 2/5

    Choo was included on this list because even though he is currently in the Major Leagues, Mike Hargrove is not going to use him enough for Choo to lose his prospect eligibility. Jeff Shaw recently asked me why I liked Choo more than Jeremy Reed, and while I don't have an answer, it is all intuition. Choo does it all, and now the only worry is whether Choo will hit enough for a corner spot.

    40. Gio Gonzalez- SP- Chicago White Sox (A-)
    April Numbers: 2-1, 11/22, 3ER (1.23 ERA), 38/6, 0

    With Johan Santana's recent fame, I have no doubt people will start getting compared to him right and left. Gonzalez is not the pitcher Santana is, but his breaking ball might be just as good. This was a steal at 38, though it is still too early to predict anything.

    41. Merkin Valdez- SP- San Francisco Giants (AA)
    April Numbers: 1-0, 19/17.1, 4ER (2.08 ERA), 16/10, 0

    Sort of the Felix Pie of pitchers, as Valdez always shows enough to stay on prospect lists, but never as much as we would have hoped. In the worst, Valdez is going to be the Giants answer in the bullpen. At best, he'll have a Pie-like breakout on the mound. But I can certainly tell you that 2.08 ERA will not stay with him considering those peripherals.

    42. Nick Markakis- OF- Baltimore Orioles (AA)
    April Numbers: 21/74 (.284), 7/14 (.345), 8-0-1 (.432); 1/2

    I consider Markakis one of my prized prospects, as he is another that I am completely using intuition on. There is a chance that Markakis is not going to hit for the power that a right fielder must, but remember that he started last year quite poorly, so a 2004-like improvement will make this ranking valid.

    43. Eric Duncan- 3B- New York Yankees (AA)
    April Numbers: 20/85 (.235), 11/15 (.327), 1-0-2 (.318); 0/0

    Ugly. The Yankees were pretty aggressive moving Duncan up to the Eastern League this year, and Duncan is showing how unready he is. Still considering his youth, discipline and immense power potential, he remains the Yankees top prospect.

    44. Ervin Santana- SP- Anaheim Angels (AA)
    April Numbers: 4-0, 17/24.1, 4ER (1.48 ERA), 16/10, 1

    Well it's nice to see Santana back and pitching well again, but that K/BB has to improve. His electric arm of old gives promise, but we need to see the numbers of old to be sold that Santana is back.

    45. Brian Dopirak- 1B- Chicago Cubs (A+)
    April Numbers: 22/83 (.265), 2/17 (.287), 3-0-4 (.446); 0/0

    Well, not really the month I was hoping for from the player I deemed the Cubs top prospect before the season. He isn't striking out that much this season, and despite his home run numbers being far from overwhelming, his ISO is enough at .181. Dopirak simply must walk more, though I guess this rate is helpful when verifying those Richie Sexson comparisons.

    46. Jeff Mathis- C- Anaheim Angels (AAA)
    April Numbers: 18/47 (.383), 5/9 (.434), 7-1-2 (.702); 2/2

    Guess who's back? Suddenly those theories of the Texas League being so touch on catchers are looking to be correct, as Mathis has come out of the gate swinging. He started well last season too, so it's a little early to be putting Mathis back in our top fifteens. He does have that type of talent, and will make Angel fans forget about Ben Molina quick if and when he gets the opportunity.

    47. Sergio Santos- SS- Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)
    April Numbers: 13/78 (.167), 9/22 (.250), 5-0-3 (.346); 0/0

    Well, this is just not good. A .167 average, a .189 average with balls in play, and 22 strikeouts? Even if Royce Clayton is completely done, Santos is just not ready to take over. His ISO and walk rates are intriguing, but Santos is showing his youth out of the blocks this year.

    48. Dan Johnson- 1B- Oakland Athletics (AAA)
    April Numbers: 17/81 (.210), 15/14 (.330), 7-0-3 (.407); 0/1

    Johnson is not exactly making me look like a genius, as I have chastised the Oakland organization time and again for playing Scott Hatteberg over him. Johnson is showing great BB/K and ISO rates, so all he needs now is to get that batting average up. He might not win the PCL MVP again, but it's a safe bet that OPS will get over .800.

    49. Angel Guzman- SP- Chicago Cubs (ST)
    April Numbers: Extended Spring Training

    Since Guzman has not really done anything of note since Spring Training, I'll just share with you now what I wrote then:

    ...Despite not having a strong build at all, Guzman has enormously long legs for a pitcher. His fastball was not the power sinker I had heard, as he both didn't cause grounders nor keep the ball low in the zone. He certainly favors the pitch, throwing seven in his first eight pitches. I was most impressed by Guzman's curve, which he showed control of throughout the game. He looks like the rare talent that can succeed without a great third pitch, as his change was absent for most of the game.

    50. Dustin Pedroia- 2B- Boston Red Sox (AA)
    April Numbers: 23/72 (.319), 11/7 (.419), 7-0-2 (.500); 1/2

    This guy is going to play in the Majors. I guarantee it. His ceiling isn't very high -- a .919 OPS will never be touched -- but he is going to play. I really believe Boston will play have Varitek, Renteria, Pedoria and Hanley Ramirez as their players up the middle by 2007. This guy is good.

    51. Robinson Cano- 2B- New York Yankees (AAA)
    April Numbers: 35/104 (.337), 5/13 (.367), 8-2-4 (.567); 0/0

    Time to give this kid his due. While the Yankees recent freak-out might make Cano extinct from the May list (his eligibility could be gone soon), now is the time to acknowledge just how well things have gone for him this year. Cano doesn't walk enough and reports on his defense aren't great, but he is a fantastic improvement over Tony Womack. If the Yankees truly are committed to getting younger, Cano is a good start.

    52. Dan Meyer- SP- Oakland Athletics (AAA)
    April Numbers: 1-2, 26/18, 12ER (6.00 ERA), 11/9, 3

    The things I have heard hint toward injury, which would explain why Meyer's velocity has decreased since last year. I still love this kid, a leftie with four solid pitches, and think the A's did get enough for Tim Hudson. But Meyer needs to start turning things around soon, as his hits, strikeouts, ERA, walks and home runs are all not good enough right now. That's a lot.

    53. Tim Stauffer- SP- San Diego Padres (AAA)
    April Numbers: 2-0, 28/29.2, 10ER (3.03 ERA), 23/7, 1

    I really like Stauffer, and have since he outpitched reports at the Futures Game, and I think the Padres could use his arm soon. Stauffer may have been my Rookie of the Year choice had he started the year in San Diego, and I think he'll be an effective Jon Lieber-type pitcher when all is said and done.

    54. Curtis Granderson- OF- Detroit Tigers (AAA)
    April Numbers: 25/79 (.316), 5/22 (.360), 9-1-0 (.456); 3/5

    Erie is where hitters go to become famous, a place where Mike Rivera can hit double-digit home run numbers. Granderson has not really faded in Toledo like I thought he might, meaning that if his defense is good enough to play center, he should be the answer in Comerica Field soon.

    55. Jon Lester- SP- Boston Red Sox (AA)
    April Numbers: 1-0, 23/19, 12ER (5.68 ERA), 22/6, 3

    I entered the year with the highest of hopes for Lester to break out, but he has been the last of Red Sox prospects to do so. Lester's peripherals look pretty solid (bad HR rate), so his ERA should come down soon. Remember that last year his season started poorly as well, so my hopes remain high that Lester still breaks out this year.

    56. Zach Duke- SP- Pittsburgh Pirates (AAA)
    April Numbers: 4-1, 34/30.1, 14ER (4.15 ERA), 13/6, 4

    He won't be winning any ERA titles this year, but Zach Duke should continue to pitch effectively, and guarantee himself a spot in the Pirates 2006 rotation. I've heard him compared to a left-handed Jason Marquis, which means that he should spent the next few years underachieving in the back end of the Pittsburgh rotation.

    57. Jose Capellan- SP- Milwaukee Brewers (AAA)
    April Numbers: 1-1, 26/19.1, 13ER (6.05 ERA), 14/5, 2

    Well this isn't working. Over Spring Training it became obvious that Capellan is not going to be able to succeed with just one pitch, which is a bit of a problem. Expect his move to the bullpen to be fairly soon, because I truly don't think Capellan has success in the rotation.

    58. Edwin Encarnacion- 3B- Cincinnati Reds (AAA)
    April Numbers: 20/72 (.278), 12/18 (.372), 6-0-4 (.528); 1/2

    The Joe Randa signing pretty much sent a message to Edwin Encarnacion that any hopes of playing for the Reds in 2005 should be disregarded. Encarnacion is still young for the International League, so he will spend this year refining his skills at AAA. He has done a pretty good job this year, as he is hitting for power, drawing walks, and has a respecatable average. Encarnacion's only concern should be Randa becoming a fan favorite in Cincinnati this season.

    59. Mike Hinckley- SP- Washington Nationals (DL)
    April Numbers: Injured

    Hinckley was getting some publicity in Spring Training, when it looked like he might take a rotation spot. That didn't happen, but it might after the All-Star break when Hinckley returns and Jim Bowden gets dealing. John Patterson and Hinckley are certainly a good place to start when building a young rotation, not to mention the others currently pitching in Washington.

    60. Jake Stevens- SP- Atlanta Braves (A+)
    April Numbers: 2-2, 23/19.1, 10ER (4.66 ERA), 10/7, 1

    Stevens has played pretty horrible this season, making me wonder if my thoughts on him before the season were a little overhyped. Jake was great in Rome last season, but to have such poor numbers at Myrtle Beach is pretty depressing. He's in danger of having Chuck James pass him sooner than later.

    61. Jason Kubel- OF/DH- Minnesota Twins (DL)
    April Numbers: Injured

    We know that Kubel will not be playing this season, but he has the hitting skills to stay on this list. We will have to wait and see how bad the knee really is, but even the hitter we saw in 2004 is good enough to succeed in the DH spot.

    62. Howie Kendrick- 2B- Anaheim Angels (A+)
    April Numbers: 40/99 (.404), 6/17 (.444), 6-2-5 (.657); 4/5

    Kendrick has been golden this season, pretty much doing nothing wrong in the early going. While Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo underwhelm in AA, Kendrick and Wood are outperforming them a level down. Again, here is what I said about Kendrick in Spring Training:

    Kendrick was dynamite in the Midwest League last year, and I was impressed with both his lateral movement at second and the pop in his bat.

    63. Brandon Wood- SS- Anaheim Angels (A+)
    April Numbers: 30/93 (.323), 6/24 (.360), 4-1-9 (.677); 1/2

    This is as good a middle infield as you will find in the minors, as Brandon Wood is showing why he was a first-round pick in 2003. While his power numbers must be taken in context of the league he plays in, this kind of power is rare for a shortstop. I would like to see a few more walks to completely be sold on Brandon's talent, but he has been dynamite this season.

    64. Andy LaRoche- 3B- Los Angeles Dodgers (A+)
    April Numbers: 32/98 (.327), 5/17 (.359), 6-1-5 (.561); 1/1

    LaRoche actually started the season quite poorly, raising his average to .250 on April 15. Since then he has gone on a tear in which he hit five homers in two weeks, and rose his average eighty points. LaRoche continues to show that he has more power than his brother, while also taking some of Adam's good skills. A few more walks and LaRoche might become an elite prospect.

    65. Fernando Nieve- SP- Houston Astros (AA)
    April Numbers: 1-1, 15/29, 5ER (1.55 ERA), 34/9, 1

    Way, way back on March 5, 2004, I named Fernando Nieve as one of my breakout prospects for the 2004 season. I was wrong. He would actually pitch mediocre last year, but it looks like this season will be when he puts his name on the map. To prove you that I'm not lying, this is what I wrote fourteen months ago:

    I hate praising Houston, but not many teams have been better at recognizing the small market for small pitchers. Nieve is not tall, but instead has sensational movement on his fastball. His peripheral numbers were much better than his ERA last season, and Nieve could break out big in high Class A this year.

    66. Elijah Dukes- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays (AA)
    April Numbers: 27/79 (.342), 9/21 (.404), 6-2-4 (.620); 6/8

    From a 2004 breakout prediction to a 2005 one, Elijah Dukes is looking like he is overcoming complaints about his attitude and just playing baseball. It's not real easy to outperform the top prospect in baseball, but Dukes has looked better than Delmon so far this season. What is Tampa going to do with all these outfielders?

    67. J.D. Durbin- SP- Minnesota Twins (AAA)
    April Numbers: 0-0, 21/17.1, 11ER (5.71 ERA), 11/10, 3

    Another player who I'm not quite ready to take off the top 75 list, but if he gives me this performance for another month, he's gone. The Twins called up Scott Baker when Juan Rincon got suspended, but my guess is that Durbin would make a better reliever, and Baker a better starter at this point. Durbin is similar to Jose Capellan, and time will tell if both end up relievers in the end.

    68. Kurt Suzuki- C- Oakland Athletics (A+)
    April Numbers: 22/73 (.301), 11/18 (.400), 6-1-1 (.452); 2/3

    This is not a guy accustomed to failure, and he stint of constant success has continued this year. Suzuki hits well, walks a lot, and plays solid defense. The A's have spent a lot of early picks on catchers the last few years, but I sincerely believe that Suzuki will be the best and end up replacing Jason Kendall down the line.

    69. Brandon Moss- OF- Boston Red Sox (AA)
    April Numbers: 14/67 (.209), 4/23 (.243), 4-0-1 (.313); 2/3

    The Red Sox answer to Eric Duncan so far this season has been Brandon Moss, who was brought up to AA when he really hadn't had enough time to prove he really did master the FSL. Moss in retrospect could have been drastically overrated, but I want to give it another month before I rush to any judgments.

    70. Cole Hamels- SP- Philadelphia Phillies (DL)
    April Numbers: Injured

    This guy has attitude problems. He has little experience. But nonetheless, Cole Hamels remains on this list on potential alone. His change up and motion were both great before he got hurt, and I for one can't wait to see what he has in his tank when he gets back.

    71. Anibal Sanchez- SP- Boston Red Sox (A+)
    April Numbers: 1-1, 14/20, 7ER (3.15 ERA), 35/1, 1

    Another player that I must stress sample size with, but this is one beginning that I just can't ignore. Remember that Angel Guzman had these type of numbers during his rehab stint last year in the FSL, so Sanchez might have a comparable in Guzman. I'll wait another month to see whether this was for real or not, but Boston is having a huge rise up organizational rankings after one month.

    72. J.D. Martin- SP- Cleveland Indians (AA)
    April Numbers: 1-1, 15/25.2, 4ER (1.40 ERA), 34/4, 0

    Kevin Goldstein of Baseball America mentioned that Martin had added a cutter this season, and that might help explain some of why Martin is playing so well this season. The former first-round selection is making teams wonder why they didn't pick him in the Rule 5 draft this past December when they had a chance. This Indian system suddenly has a lot of pitching, so the Jeremy Guthrie bust can now be swallowed a little easier.

    73. Eddy Martinez-Esteve- OF- San Francisco Giants (A+)
    April Numbers: 28/81 (.346), 12/13 (.430), 8-0-4 (.593); 1/1

    He's not very athletic, and he's going to make every flyball an adventure in left. But man oh man, EME has some serious hitting talent. There is nothing wrong with his offensive skillset, and this might just be the guy given the responsibility of replacing Barry Bonds when he retires.

    74. Matt Moses- 3B- Minnesota Twins (A+)
    April Numbers: 31/77 (.403), 7/17 (.447), 10-1-4 (.717); 5/7

    Like Martin, Moses is a first-round pick that did not live up to expectations last season. But now that his back injury is behind him, Moses is hitting in Fort Myers like few before him have. If he goes through the system fast, Moses could just solve Aaron Gleeman's woes of having Luis Rivas up the middle: Moses to the hot corner, Cuddyer to second. I can already see the Twin fans salivating...

    75. Josh Fields- 3B- Chicago White Sox (AA)
    April Numbers: 23/75 (.307), 9/24 (.391), 4-0-1 (.400); 3/4

    Last on my list is a choice solely based on intuition in my ongoing quest to rank White Sox prospects over Ryan Sweeney. Josh Fields has all the athleticism in the world, and even has shown some good discipline so far this season. Fields has a ton to work on, but also has some immense potential.

    WTNYMay 03, 2005
    2005 WTNY April 75 (Part One)
    By Bryan Smith

    With a month of baseball and all of Spring Training having happened since my last prospect rankings, I think it's time to look where my rankings currently stand. The unveiling of this list will see the graduation of all players that should lose prospect eligiblity soon, and will feature 2004 draftees for the first time. Today I will present my top 25 players, while tomorrow we will go through 26-75 in a quicker format.

    For each player I have given their April numbers, with a bit of an unusual stat line. For hitters, the line is as follows:

    H/AB (AVG), BB/K (OBP), 2B-3B-HR (SLG); SB/ATT

    While a bit odd, this will help me greatly when compiling prospect splits at season's end. For pitchers, the line should be read:

    W-L, H/IP, ER (ERA), K/BB, HR

    Please note that this list will have little turnover, as I realize not too much faith can be put in Opening month statistics. This is more reflective of any changes of feeling I've had recently, along with dealing with any injuries that have happened since the last list. Enjoy...

    1. Delmon Young- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays (AA)

    It was going to take a lot for Delmon to lose his spot atop my list, as I truly believe this is one of the game's next superstars. Tampa Bay was aggressive with their former top choice, moving the 20-year-old to AA to start the season. Young has taken the transition well, and is also walking and stealing bases at better levels than last season. He still has things to work on, like less strikeouts and more consistent power, but this is a kid that should factor into the Devil Rays 2006 plans. Tampa Bay has a number of things to do soon, such as deciding where B.J. Upton factors into future plans. What they do know, however, is that Carl Crawford and Delmon Young will be their corner outfielders for quite some time.

    April Numbers: 24/85 (.282), 10/24 (.364), 1-1-4 (.459); 9/11

    2. Felix Hernandez- SP- Seattle Mariners (AAA)

    Again, this was not about to change, as Delmon and Felix are heads above the rest of the minor league crowd. Felix has been fine, but not fantastic, thus far in the PCL season. Rather than dissect his numbers, I found this first-hand account to be the most telling of where the King is at (from Devin of Lookout Landing):

    Hernandez, obviously already flustered, then started to get a bit wild as he stuggled to get his curve and changeup across the plate...Hernandez was hitting 96 MPH consistently with his fastball and somewhere between 81-83 MPH with the curve, he also threw a 69 MPH changeup. Wicked. After the first, he had hitters absolutely flailing at that nasty curve...

    April Numbers: 3-2, 28/29, 8ER (2.48 ERA), 28/15, 1

    3. Andy Marte- 3B- Atlanta Braves (AAA)

    Overall a pretty solid month for Marte, who saw his rate numbers dragged down by an eight-day slump. From April 19 to the 28th Marte went just 5-for-36, which is the reason his numbers look pretty low. But when you dig deeper you see that besides those games he was 18/41, and he still has an ISoD of .089 and ISO of .184. I still believe the Braves are best suited with Chipper Jones and Ryan Langerhans on their outfield corners, with Andy Marte at third. I was hoping that Marte would come out of the gate red-hot, proving that breakout people have been calling for would be in 2005. He hasn't, and it is beginning to look more and more like Marte might just turn into a solid, but not spectacular, third baseman.

    April Numbers: 23/87 (.264), 9/22 (.333), 4-0-4 (.448); 0/0

    4. Ian Stewart- 3B- Colorado Rockies (A+)

    I'll admit to having underrated Stewart in my last rankings, where he did not rank in the top five. After further thought, even despite his hurt hamstring, I'm willing to say that Stewart is the game's fourth-best prospect. His hitting skills are ridiculously advanced for his age, and it looks like he'll stay at the hot corner. Add all that up, mix in Coors Field, and you have some silly good numbers. Hey, Todd Helton might steal a plaque with that resume.

    April Numbers: Injured

    5. Prince Fielder- 1B- Milwaukee Brewers (AAA)

    OK, so his numbers don't look that good, and his Spring Training was pretty bad after his red-hot start. But this guy gives me a feeling of future dominance, it just seems as if his hitting skills are Frank Thomas-like. Fielder's walking and striking out are both at appropriate levels this season, so all he needs are a few more balls to leave the yard to be set. Lyle Overbay is doing fine at the Major League level, so there is no hurry, but Fielder still figures to push Lyle out by the break.

    April Numbers: 19/79 (.241), 15/15 (.375), 3-0-2 (.354); 1/2

    6. Matt Cain- SP- San Francisco Giants (AAA)

    I guess this is payback for ranking Cain behind Chad Billingsley on my last list, as Matt has come out of the blocks dominating this season. San Francisco was agressive in promoting Cain to AAA after an up-and-down half season in Norwich last year, but hindsight is validating the move. It was not too long ago that prospect lists were filled with stud Giant pitching prospects -- Williams, Foppert and Ainsworth -- and San Fran fans will tell you they haven't seen much come from that. Cain is the best of the group, and has looked better in the PCL than King Felix. A little work on control is all that is preventing Cain from being the Dontrelle Willis (c. 2003) boost the Giants need to stay afloat in the NL West.

    April Numbers: 3-0, 10/25.2, 4ER (1.75 ERA), 29/11, 3

    7. Hanley Ramirez- SS- Boston Red Sox (AA)

    Recently, I have decided that Hanley Ramirez had jumped over Joel Guzman as my top shortstop prospects. I like the fluid nature in which Ramirez plays the game, his rounded skillset, his propensity for contact. Guzman's size is a bit of a concern, as are his struggles with hitting a curve. Hanley might not be able to stick at shortstop with the signing of the player he has long been compared to, but there is no question that he will be getting regular playing time soon. I mentioned to Randy Booth at Over the Monster that with Johnny Damon a free agent after this season, the Red Sox might want to consider moving Hanley to center sooner rather than later.

    April Numbers: 22/75 (.293), 4/12 (.346), 2-5-0 (.453); 4/6

    8. Carlos Quentin- OF- Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)

    His numbers are flawless. In fact, it is quite hard to cite flaws since he has started playing professional baseball. I wonder how much Arizona's slew of great hitter's parks in the minors have helped this, so Quentin will be a good test study for sure. What he will also be is the Arizona Diamondbacks 2006 right fielder. He's going to hit, he's going to get on base, and he's going to become a fan favorite in Phoenix. Jeremy Deloney had it right telling me I underrated this guy in January, that's for sure.

    April Numbers: 22/63 (.349), 17/10 (.500), 4-0-4 (.603); 4/4

    9. Jeff Francoeur- OF- Atlanta Braves (AA)

    The walks are getting concerning. I mean, this is a guy that in April has walked in about 3% of his plate apperances, and had the exact same struggles in the AFL. Superstars don't walk this little, so I'm a little wary about forecasting Francoeur's ceiling. I love the power, and sincerely believe he is a future 30-HR threat in the Majors. But, how valuable is that with an OBP that will, at best, be .340? What if it's .307? Everything else looks good right now, but the Braves need to get this kid taking more pitches...soon.

    April Numbers: 26/95 (.274), 3/21 (.307), 10-0-3 (.474); 5/6

    10. Casey Kotchman- 1B- L.A. Angels (AAA)

    How does this happen? A guy hits all his life, dominates this level last year, and starts the year this cold? Sure his BABIP is about .220 this season, but three extra-base hits? Could he be a victim of being too selective? All valid questions. It could be noted that Mark Grace struggled in AAA at the age of 24, though the Cubs called him up anyway. That's who Kotchman is currently looking like, as I now more than ever believe he will never develop Will Clark power. I think it's safe to say the Angels will take any power at this point.

    April Numbers: 15/78 (.192), 18/11 (.357), 3-0-0 (.231); 0/1

    11. Rickie Weeks- 2B- Milwaukee Brewers (AAA)

    He isn't going to hit four triples every month, and his BB/K ratio is pretty absurd right now. But, Weeks is doing just about everything else right. His BABIP is extremely high right now, around .350, so a slump on the way could be projected. This is not a good sign for a guy hitting .265, and it shows he needs to work on contact considerably. But power this good up the middle doesn't come around much, so the Brewers are willing to work with him. Like Prince his arrival might be a little delayed, but the two will be Milwaukee's right side by the end of the year. And yes, Weeks does have Gary Sheffield power potential.

    April Numbers: 22/83 (.265), 6/26 (.337), 3-4-3 (.506); 4/5

    12. Jeremy Hermida- OF- Florida Marlins (AA)

    Before the season the question was whether Hermida would hit for power or just be the next Florida leadoff hitter. The answer: the power has come. I can't say no one saw it coming, as Dave Cameron said in an interview with me, "Get him out of the Florida State League and add a few more pounds and he's going to take off." Consider Hermida lifted off, as he has fixed every flaw on his scouting report besides a high number of whiffs. This is a guy who this season projects to walk more than 100 times and hit about 40 homers. Juan Pierre should hear the footsteps coming, as should the outfielders in front of Hermida on this prospect list.

    April Numbers: 20/73 (.274), 20/19 (.436), 4-0-8 (.658); 2/2

    13. Joel Guzman- SS- Los Angeles Dodgers (AA)

    Unlike the other huge Dodger breakout of 2004, Adrian Beltre, Joel Guzman is proving that he is for real. Still, all of his flaws still apply, which include size too big for the shortstop position, too many strikeouts, poor recognition of curveballs. It is much more likely that Guzman is going to replace Jose Valentin at third than Cesar Izturis up the middle, as many predicted when the Dodgers let Beltre walk. Whether Guzman turns into the next Beltre or the next Valentin remains to be seen, but I will say that I am far more bearish on Guzman than most.

    April Numbers: 23/80 (.288), 10/25 (.366), 5-1-4 (.525); 2/3

    14. Lastings Milledge- OF- New York Mets (A+)

    As I type his ranking, I just keep having to remind myself, "Sample size, sample size, sample size." Milledge has such high potential, but by the same token, such high room for bust. Milledge is currently on the shelf with a bum left wrist, an injury we have seen sap power out of players for a season. Even if he doesn't hit for a ton of power this season, New York could still work with him on selectivity, as walking in 6% of PA and striking out in 30% is not acceptable.

    April Numbers: 11/51 (.216), 3/15 (.298), 2-0-1 (.314); 4/6

    15. Chad Billingsley- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers (AA)

    When I wrote about Billingsley a couple weeks ago, I talked about why the Kerry Wood comparisons make some sense. Chad has a dominating two-pitch arsenal that helps him rack up strikeouts, but doesn't have the control to ever have a good WHIP on his resume. Wood naysayers will tell you that it is quite possible to look dominant on the mound while spending years throwing more than pitching. Billingsley has some serious control and mechanical issues to climb before becoming a star, but like any good pitching prospect, has a future somewhere, on some staff.

    April Numbers: 1-1, 16/22.2, 11ER (4.37 ERA), 25/11, 0

    16. Yusmeiro Petit- SP- New York Mets (AA)

    The cloud of smoke that the Scott Kazmir trade and its aftereffects caused have been lifted, and now Petit's true colors are shining like never before. Petit has been lucky that the unforgiving New York media has had a pair of Binghamton pitchers to watch, and one with quite the pedigree. While Floyd Bannister's son is another that got off to a Brad Thompson-like start, it is Petit that remains the better prospect. Yusmeiro has it all: good control, deception, and a knowledge of changing speeds. There are questions about his stuff and about his ceiling, but Yusmeiro should be fine. Think Livan Hernandez (c. 2005, not 1997), and remain the Mets fans of that team ERA.

    April Numbers: 0-2, 15/20.1, 6ER (2.66 ERA), 23/2, 2

    17. Thomas Diamond- SP- Texas Rangers (A+)

    First on my list of 2005 draftees is Thomas Diamond, which is probably surprising for all those Niemann and Butler lovers out there. One of the reasons is that Diamond has an extensive track record now, since he signed with the Rangers out of New Orleans and started pitching so fast. Diamond has a 2.51 ERA in more than 70 professional innings, with 97 strikeouts and just 22 walks. I keep finding things to fall in love with this guy for, and MLB's scouting service liked him too:

    Good pitcher's build, similar to Roger Clemens...Solid delivery, good extension on release. Fastball explodes late in zone...Curveball has big, 12-6 break...Excellent movement and deception to change up.

    With a little improvement on his slider, Diamond has all the makings of solving the Rangers' rotation woes. He'll beat John Danks to the Majors, and also profiles to be a better pitcher. Not a lot to dislike here.

    April Numbers: 3-0, 19/25.2, 9ER (3.16 ERA), 29/9, 2

    18. Conor Jackson- 1B- Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)

    Like Quentin, I'm curious how these insane minor league numbers are going to translate when Jackson actually faces Major League pitching. And insane they are. Jackson just keeps hitting doubles, and has only struck out three times in almost ninety plate appearances. His move to first base is pretty official, meaning that Shawn Green will be the man left out in Arizona in a year's time, assuming Luis Gonzalez does not retire. Jackson should be called up before Quentin to relieve Chad Tracy, who could very well interest any team in need of a third baseman.

    April Numbers: 29/74 (.392), 13/3 (.472), 9-1-1 (.581); 0/0

    19. Brandon McCarthy- SP- Chicago White Sox (AAA)

    Well, I wondered how the curveball would do after leaving the Arizona atmosphere, and the answer is not too well. McCarthy has given up five home runs in the International League this season, and I would be willing to gamble at least three of them have been hanging curveballs. McCarthy has still pitched very well when considering his K/BB and age, but I think the White Sox expected a little more after his Spring Training. With the rotation dominating it looks like McCarthy will not be pushed too hard this year, a good thing for a kid who might get tired early because of that March. McCarthy is similar to a right-handed Barry Zito, though he has better control than the former Cy Young winner. Brandon will be in Chicago full-time in 2006, as trading him from the organization would be far worse than Jeremy Reed.

    April Numbers: 2-2, 25/29.2, 14ER (4.25 ERA), 40/9, 5

    20. Brian Anderson- OF- Chicago White Sox (AAA)

    That's because Reed had a fellow outfield prospect nipping at his heels in Brian Anderson. While Jermaine Dye continues to stink it up in Chicago, the White Sox are an injury away from calling the Wildcat to the Windy City. Anderson has it all, a disciplined high, solid contact skills, and has shown newfound power this year. He has the ability to play any outfield position, so he could undoubtedly get a chance next year. He is the player Shin-Soo Choo, trying to top Reed, wants to be.

    April Numbers: 26/80 (.325), 8/24 (.389), 8-1-4 (.600); 0/0

    21. Hayden Penn- SP- Baltimore Orioles (AA)

    Like that, in a blink of five starts, Hayden Penn comes from nowhere and grabs hold of the Oriole top prospect spot. Penn was third at some point this offseason, behind Markakis and Majewski, but has had a red-hot debut to thank for dusting the pair of outfielders. 40 strikeouts in less than 30 innings? This is because Penn now has three above-average pitches in a mid-90s fastball, a much-improved fantastic change up, and a solid curve. Throw in a little control and youth in the Eastern League, and you can understand why the bandwagon keeps growing.

    April Numbers: 2-1, 21/29, 5ER (1.55 ERA), 40/6, 0

    22. John Danks- SP- Texas Rangers (A+)

    With the emergence of Ian Kinsler last year and Thomas Diamond this season, John Danks is kind of flying under the radar a bit in Dallas. While I'm always a little wary of Danks after being quite underwhelmed by his performance in the Futures Game, I realize that he's far better than what he showed in the game. In fact, he is the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball right now. It was going to take a damn good high school player to make Grady Fuson spend seven figures on, and Danks was that player in 2003. Texas is really waiting for Danks and Diamond to come take hold of a rotation that is the only thing holding the club back from perennial playoff visits.

    April Numbers: 1-1, 17/20.2, 4ER (1.74 ERA), 19/5, 0

    23. Daric Barton- 1B- Oakland Athletics (A+)

    Of all of my comments in my January rankings, my comments about Barton drew the most criticism. It remains to be seen whether the numbers I cited (half the season he was the minors best hitter, the other half he was awful) mean anything, but his early numbers have been quite poor. I still really like Barton and can truly understand the comparisons that have been made to Carlos Delgado. With all that being said, big things were expected from Barton this year, hitting in the minors easiest league. Given his age and having the duties of learning a new position we can forgive his early struggles, but that ISO really needs a rise in May.

    April Numbers: 19/78 (.244), 13/11 (.362), 2-0-2 (.346); 0/0

    24. Billy Butler- 3B- Kansas City Royals (A+)

    Give the Kansas City scouting team some credit, they are relentless. In 2001, the team drafted high school fireballer Colt Griffin in the first round, but still had the guts to draft another high school pitcher in 2002 (Greinke). Despite the bust that is Chris Lubanski being a wasted 2003 first-round choice, the club went back into the high school hitter department in 2004. The key when realizing why Greinke and Butler are looking like successes is that both are cerebral players, with huge upsides. Butler is a great talent as a hitter, with good contact skills, a disciplined eye and huge power. His one real flaw is a lack of athleticism which hurts his defense at the hot corner. While the precedent of moving from third to first isn't full of names, Butler does have some similarities to a right-handed Jim Thome. I think Kansas City fans could live with that.

    April Numbers: 30/85 (.353), 12/17 (.433), 5-0-7 (.659); 0/0

    25. Scott Olsen- SP- Florida Marlins (AA)

    Of all the better prospects in baseball, few players have flown under my radar more than Scott Olsen. A good start to this season, combined with some graduations and injuries have made Olsen the second-best southpaw prospect in baseball. His control looks very good this year, and Olsen does not give up home runs. A.J. Burnett is going to command a lot of money this offseason, and the Marlins will need an effective pitcher to fill his void. Olsen looks to be it.

    April Numbers: 3-0, 24/27.2, 8ER (2.60 ERA), 35/7, 1

    Back tomorrow with prospects 26-75, please leave any feelings below.

    WTNYApril 29, 2005
    Spring Training Revisited
    By Bryan Smith

    Over the weekend we will see the month change and April become a memory, giving us a good time to look back at the month that was. For me, I was curious to see how well the month either validated or disproved the many predictions I made before the season. Most of these predictions were upon my return from my week-long Arizona trip, in which I saw ten teams in five days. Below are a few of the quotes I printed when returning from Arizona, with a recap about how smart -- or how stupid -- those comments look now.

    Barry Zito was a mess...His curve was a mix between rarely being implemented and seldom finding the strike zone. And his fastball is just not good enough to get by hitters without the threat of his trademark hook...which isn't good news for an A's team dependent on his regression to Cy Young form.

    Well, in fact, Barry Zito is a mess. In five starts the southpaw has a 6.60 ERA, with a sparkling 0-4 record. Zito's best start, an eight-inning two run game occured on one of the many nights in which the A's offense stagnated, giving him his third loss. In each of his other four starts he has allowed four runs, including getting blasted for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings against the lowly Devil Rays. The problem for Zito has been both the walk (11) in 30 innings, and even more so, the long ball. Zito still is having problems getting his fastball by hitters, which of course does not allow that fantastic curve to be established. The A's are hanging in there without the man they pinned their rotation hopes on, and his turnaround could help the A's prove naysayers wrong.

    On the other hand, Jamie Moyer looked fantastic...The A's looked thrown off by his style.

    Moyer has been quite the opposite of Zito this year, and has thrown off many a hitter with that unique style. Moyer has a 2.53 ERA, and has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a game. That's the good news, but the bad news is that AL West teams have shown to know him a little better than other teams. In his five starts this year, two have come against AL West teams, and they have accounted for six of his nine earned runs this season. But in 20.2 innings against AL Central teams, Moyer has allowed just three runs. This would bode well if Moyer played for a team like the Tigers or White Sox, but he will face AL West teams in about ten starts this year. This includes his next start, against the A's, the team he baffled in Spring Training.

    Awful day for Keith Ginter. Two strikeouts, and some terrible defense up the middle. Ginter is a swallowable infielder on a bad team but a bench player on a good one.

    The bad play has continued. Not only did Ginter lose the battle for second base, but he has not gotten steady playing time since Bobby Crosby got injured. Ginter has hit just .161 this season, allowing Marco Scutaro to step in as an everyday middle infielder. Ginter's play has even spawned Blez wondering aloud whether he might get traded when the 2004 AL Rookie of te Year returns. To his credit Ginter has yet to make an error in eight games at second, currently sporting the best zone rating of his career. Expect his bat to get better and his glove to get worse, but I can't promise Ken Macha will gain any confidence in him. A trade might just be best for Ginter, though I'm not quite sure Beane can get talent close to what he gave.

    Also impressing me was Miguel Olivo and Justin Leone. Olivo should have a good season, and Seattle fans will like that he does everything (even run) pretty solidly.

    Not quite. Olivo is currently hitting .189/.232/.245 this season, though he still is getting three at-bats for each of Dan Wilson's one. Dave Cameron wrote a great post talking about what Olivo needs to do to turn it around, and some sign of that has happened the last couple games. In his last three, Olivo has four hits in 11 at-bats, with two doubles, two walks and just one strikeout.

    "Watching him hurts my shoulder." That's what my Dad said of Huston Street's 5/8 delivery, though his pitches were impressive.

    Well, that's the last time I'm trusting my Dad. I'm kidding, though in this short season Street has quickly become one of Macha's most trusted relievers. Fifteen strikeouts in 12.2 innings, with just a 2.84 ERA in ten games. Street won't have the wins or saves, the sexy pitching statistics, to win the AL Rookie of the Year, but it's going to be hard to find players more valuable to their teams. Street has had one bad game in ten, a tradeoff that Beane and Macha will be able to swallow over the course of the season. My one question will be Street's endurance, as he has never come close to breaching the 60-70 game mark before.

    At the plate, Weeks looks like a smaller version of Gary Sheffield, with a very similar stance. He also has a batting eye like Gary...He's an exciting talent, and should be pushing Spivey off soon.

    On face value, Weeks numbers in AAA do not look too awe inspiring: .264/.346/.542. The huge increase in power that Weeks has shown is a fantastic sign, and shows a bit of validity in the Sheffield comparison. Weeks season numbers have been on the rise, as Weeks has been red-hot lately. In his last five games, Weeks is 8/20, hitting two home runs, a triple and a double during that span of games. With Spivey's OPS sitting at just .652, we might be seeing Weeks sooner rather than later as I predicted.

    I've drawn criticism for my dislike for J.J. Hardy in the past, and I'll admit that Royce Clayton comparisons might be too much. His swing proved to me that twenty home run seasons are probably too much, but he looks like he makes tons of contact, runs well and has a great arm. I underrated him.

    Alright, this is a notion that I should have stuck with. Hardy is having a tough time adjusting to Major League pitching, as I guessed that he would. Seeing him in Spring Training and being impressed has given me the lesson that I can't let one game impress me enough to rid me of my gut reaction. Hardy is hitting just .140 through 16 games, where Clayton was at just .170 after the same point. Neither had an OPS above .450 at this point, so the comparison is looking a little more apt. I think Hardy could still be a serviceable shortstop with the Brewers, but I do still believe that the ceiling many outlets anoited him while he was in the minors was a bit too much.

    One of my predictions for 2005: bad things for Lyle Overbay.

    OK, this is one where my gut and eyes really agreed. And in both cases, I seem to have been a little bit wrong. Overbay currently has an OPS of .851, with a fantastic .420 OBP. While Prince Fielder slowly adjusts to AAA pitching in Nashville, it appears that Overbay is truly proving that Mark Grace comparisons aren't too crazy after all. This is great news for the Brewers because in one year's time they will likely attempt to move Lyle, and an .851 OPS will go a much farther way to getting a good package than what I would have predicted.

    Expect the combination of age, leaving Leo Mazzone, and moving to Arizona to make the Russ Ortiz signing look about as good as the Bartolo Colon one did a year ago.

    While I guess the Colon analogy still applies since Bartolo had a modest 4.07 ERA after April last year, I have been impressed with Russ this year. Part of his success equation, I think, was not switching leagues as Colon did. Ortiz, with a 3.60 ERA, has not been an ace to the Diamondbacks by any means, but he has been one of the club's most effective starters. No one is ever going to believe that Ortiz got the raw end of his contract, but if he keeps pitching like this, I think the Diamondbacks could live with it. But given his K/BB ratio, which given has always been pretty suspect, I'm not too confident that Ortiz won't turn into Colon like I suspected in March.

    I was equally as low on Ryan Drese. Before watching him pitch, Drese would have been one of the first people I thought likely to regress in 2005. After watching him, I'm not so sure that he isn't Orel Hershiser's best success yet...Drese is succeeding as a starter, but if that falls apart down the road, a move to relief might be the best career move.

    Another one of those examples of when I let one apperance change the entire feeling I had about the player entering the game. Like most everyone else, it was pretty obvious to me before going to Arizona that Ryan Drese's season last year was a little over the level that he should be suspected to pitch at. But watching Drese dominate the Diamondback lineup, including great hitters like Troy Glaus and Shawn Green, I started to second guess myself. Wrong I was. Drese currently has a 6.25 ERA, and is making the Rangers look like fools for expecting Drese to take one of the top two spots of that rotation. Unlike we noted about Spring Training and last season, Drese's problems have been the first three innings, as opposed to his endurance. I don't even have a guess on why this would be, but I know that the pitching-needing Rangers aren't going to have a lot of patience with Ryan.

    Brandon Lyon came into the game for the seventh and eighth innings, and he looked fantastic. Seeing as though Jose Cruz Jr. and Shane Nance are the only things left from the Curt Schilling trade, it is likely important to management for Lyon to have a good year.

    This is the prediction I am most pleased with. I nailed this one, especially considering that I picked Lyon up in time to get all ten of his saves in fantasy baseball, before dealing him in the last couple days. I think Lyon, like when he played in Boston, will be a little more susceptible to National League hitters when he faces them for the second and third time. His power sinker has worked well in April with an ERA under two, and the league-leading save total, but we can only guess how much longer that will last. A combination of hitters getting the book on Lyon, and a decrease in the Diamondback way of play will leave me shocked if Brandon gets 25 more saves this season.

    Derrek Lee also looks like he will continue his streak of poor Aprils, as he struck out in two of his three at-bats.

    We go from a genius prediction, to an idiotic one. Continue his streak of poor Aprils? Try .416/.489/.714 through April 25! Lee has been far and away the most dangerous Cubs hitter this season, accomplishing the feats I had expected of him a year ago. Whether he will regress into the consistent player he has been for seasons remains to be seen, but there is no question that Derrek has the hitting ability to keep a .298 ISO going. I'm going to guess that the .416 average goes down a bit by September, but given a little more production from the rest of the lineup, that will be a pill that Cub fans don't mind swallowing.

    On the opposite end, Rich Harden looked great in this game. His curve was on, and the main reason for his six strikeouts. He needed only 75 pitches in five innings, even given his struggles in a five-hit third inning. His fastball is pretty hittable, but if he hits his spots to set up the breaking ball, he will succeed.

    Harden has been succeeding, and while this is extremely premature, would be foolish to throw away when talking about AL Cy Young candidates. Harden has stepped up to be the ace of an A staff that was depending so heavily on Barry Zito, and Harden may end up being better than any of the Big Three. This guy has been a force in every start this year, currently sporting a 2.10 ERA, and has left us no reason to think that trend will end. His splitter is as good as any pitch in the Majors, maybe, and will look even better once Jason Kendall gets used to catching it. Harden is a unique talent that will make Bay Area fans forget the Hudson name, no matter what Timmy is doing in Atlanta.

    Consider it true, as Everett looked as good in uniform as I have seen him in a long time. He also was very in tune at the plate, doubling twice and walking once before being removed after five innings. Given his good condition and U.S. Cellular Field, Everett might not be a bad gamble in the late innings of fantasy drafts this year.

    Saying that Everett has been the gamebreaker that I thought he would be is an exaggeration, but Carl has definitely been valuable to the White Sox. Using Scott Podsednik is left field puts a considerable onus on Everett, who has been left with the sole responsiblity of protecting Paul Konerko in that lineup. When Frank Thomas gets back we can only hope that Everett does not lose playing time to the likes of Poddy and Jermaine Dye, but I have no doubt that he will. But again, I'm sure this will work out well for Ozzie Guillen, who cannot do anything wrong this season.

    Jon Garland...yuk.

    While Brett Myers has impressed me this season greatly, finally showing the ceiling we predicted years ago isn't too stupid, his performance pales in comparison to Jon Garland this year. I think that I, like a lot of people, had closed the book on Garland last year when he had another average-at-best year, the only type he had since becoming a South Sider. Garland's inconsistency has been a trademark over the years, and we can only hope he doesn't fall back into the player that will pitch a gem and then not make it to the fourth inning. There is no way he wins 20 games or has a sub-3.50 ERA this year, but any step in the right direction might make me open up that book again.

    WTNYApril 26, 2005
    Royally Rebuilding
    By Bryan Smith

    News Item: On Saturday, April 23, 2005, the Chicago White Sox beat the Kansas City Royals 3-2 in 10 innings.

    OK, so what? I'm sure this was one of those box scores you skipped over in the Sunday newspaper, hardly shocked baseball's best team beat baseball's worst. In fact, the most surprising part of the game, you thought, was that it lasted ten innings.

    That's too bad. Because what you missed, for the first nine innings at least, was the early showings of Allard Baird's long-term rebuilding process. The four stars of the game were all 25 and under, giving depressed Royal fans a little promise. Bummed Calvin Pickering, John Buck and Mark Teahen haven't exactly met expectations? Well, what are you doing watching the offense anyway? The game was impressive for what was on the mound, not at the plate.

    It all started, unsurprisingly, with the right arm of Zack Greinke. While the preseason statistics all yielded to some serious regression for Greinke this year, Zack is proving to simply be the exception to the rule. All control, all changing speeds. Line drive percentages and FIPs might not be his friend, but gravity is. And for the Royals, who have been pinning their future hopes on Greinke's right shoulder since the day he was drafted.

    Following Greinke came in the Royals most trusted reliever, who had been on some streak:

    IP	H	ER	BB	K
    12.1	7	0	3	14

    When I gave these numbers to our friend, the Transaction Guy, he was left guessing Mark Prior's numbers before last night. Prior is close, of course, with with more hits and less strikeouts. The Cubs is a good theme, though this name will cause a bit more depression than Prior. This is the guy that forced me to question the Cubs, and who I said "should be the top choice in the [Rule 5] draft." Or better yet...

    [Kansas City] might as well keep trying to pluck the next Johan Santana from the Rule 5 draft, possibly selecting Andy Sisco from my Cubbies this December.
    They listened. Andy Sisco was chosen in the Rule 5 draft, and given a chance to make the Major League team. What happened then would all be speculation: he lost serious weight, dropped a pitch, responded to Guy Hansen. But for some reason, Andy Sisco has taken off. And those numbers are his last seven appearances, since Opening Day when the reliever behind him allowed Andy's baserunners to score.

    So, Sisco entered the game in the top of the eighth inning, when White Sox broadcaster Darrin Jackson said of the southpaw, "I've never seen him or heard of him until now." It might just be me, but should any Chicago announcer be saying this on air about one of the Chicago team's largest mistakes of the winter? I digress, but it does speak to Sisco's obscurity, despite his huge frame and power stuff.

    In his one inning on the mound, Sisco struck out the side, giving up just one single. His fastball was 91-94 mph, and thrown in twelve of his seventeen pitches. The other five were all sweeping sliders, 83-86 mph, diving away against left-handed batters. Sisco's lone hit came from Juan Uribe, who took a Sisco fastball the other way. White Sox hitters were consistently late on the fastball, hitting four foul balls in the inning.

    It seems as though Sisco has found a home in the bullpen, and previous thoughts that he should eventually be placed back in the rotation should be thrown out. Sisco could soon be a part of a good power bullpen that Allard Baird is putting together for next to nothing.

    Another name who could be a part of the mix is Ambiorix Burgos, who made his Major League debut in this game. Recognize the name? You might, he was mentioned in my breakout prospects article this past June:

    Speaking of control problems, few in the minors need control to succeed like Ambiorix Burgos of the Royals. Last year in the Midwest League, Burgos struck out 172 batters in just 134 innings, while allowing just 109 hits. His problem? 75 walks. Burgos struck out more than ten batters four times, but also walked at least five on seven different occasions. Kansas City isn't the best organization to teach control (Colt Griffin), but they should make a point of it, because Burgos is one special talent.

    In the offseason the Royals decided to do with Burgos what they had with Griffin: move his power stuff to the bullpen. The conversion quickly was a success in Wichita, where Burgos quickly dominated and drastically lowered his walk rate. With Jeremy Affeldt hurt and Mike MacDougal struggling, the Royals decided it was time to call up the 21-year-old. Not only that, but Tony Pena decided Burgos' debut would be in the ninth inning of a 2-2 game against the Majors' hottest team.

    Ambiorix made Pena look like a genius. No fastball slower than 95, with a couple touching 98 mph. His other pitch is a splitter that acts similar to a change, thrown 85-87, and used when he struck out the first batter he faced. Burgos is definitely fastball friendly, throwing the pitch in ten of his thirteen pitches from the inning.

    With this, Burgos could be in line for a few saves in Kansas City. 21-year-olds in the Majors face a tough learning curve, so you might pass on him on your fantasy team, but this is someone to watch. I can tell you that nothing made my Saturday better than watching one of my favorite prospects validate my faith.

    Speaking of the White Sox, over the weekend Ozzie Guillen continued to be the 2005 Midas of coaching. Every decision he makes is a success, leading the Sox to an amazing 9-1 record in one-run games. One of those came when Pablo Ozuna came off the bench, the same Ozuna that barely made the White Sox, and had a game-winning hit.

    This is also the same Ozuna that was the fifth-ranked shortstop by Baseball America in 2000. Discovering this, I became interested in what has happened to shortstop prospects recently, as their position tends to get them overrated. So I looked at every shortstop that made the BA top 100 from 1999-2003, and characterized them in two ways: successes and busts.

    Of course, there are a few players who fall somewhere in the middle, and a few who are still too early to judge. But what I found, however, was a pretty even split: 13 successes and 14 busts. One of those busts being, of course, Pablo Ozuna. Here is a look at the other 26...

    Successes	         Busts
    Jose Reyes	Brandon Phillips
    Khalil Greene	Jose Castillo
    Angel Berroa	Wilson Betemit
    Miguel Cabrera	Kelly Johnson
    Alfonso Soriano	Antonio Perez
    Jimmy Rollins	Ramon Vazquez
    D'Angelo Jimenez	Felipe Lopez
    Juan Uribe	Luis Montanez
    Rafael Furcal	David Espinosa
    Cesar Izturis	Ramon Santiago
    Alex Gonzalez	Gookie Dawkins
    Mike Cuddyer	Brent Butler
    Cristian Guzman	Kelly Dransfeldt

    Amazing, isn't it? Four of the success stories have now moved, most notably Alfonso Soriano and Miguel Cabrera. This is not the kind of rate that we would like to see, with just nine players of the 26 we projected so highly becoming stars at short. Expecting production up the middle -- and not being sold just by the position -- is something we should all double-check the next time around.

    The day after this Burgos game, the one that Ozuna won, was another youth-filled day. The first seven innings were thrown by Denny Bautista, a favorite of mine since the day I watched him pitch at the 2003 Futures Game. In seven innings the right-hander allowed two hits, four walks and two runs. Last July, I made Bautista my 74th best midseason prospect, with this comment attached to his name:

    I was taken aback by Bautista at the 2003 Futures Game, where I saw him as the most intimidating pitcher out there. He was last year's version of Jose Capellan, and I won't forget that anytime soon. Trading Bautista for Jason Grimsley is grounds for firing, because I think Bautista will turn out to be a good one, whether in the bullpen or the rotation. He's been fantastic since joining the Royals, what with a 1.61 ERA in four starts, allowing just 18 hits in 28 innings.

    Bautista is now proving that the move to the bullpen that has been rumored since his first organization might not have to happen. This is a kid that upset Mike Wood for a rotation spot in Spring Training, and has not turned around. Denny and Zack can now combine to give the Royals a solid 1-2 punch for the future, one that will soon add players like J.P. Howell, Matt Campbell, and whoever Baird adds next.

    What comes next will decide whether Baird's rebuilding process ends in success or failure. Alex Gordon or Mike Pelfrey? Trade Mike Sweeney and who else? Play Billy Butler at what decision?

    The wins this season do not matter. In fact, that 3-2 loss in ten innings could be one of the more impressive games of the season. Well, that is until they found that veteran to pitch the tenth.

    WTNYApril 24, 2005
    Baseball's NFL Draft
    By Bryan Smith

    After spending hours on the couch yesterday watching the other sport's draft, I again must say Major League Baseball has a long way to go in perfecting their draft. While I am not as worried about the worldwide draft as some, I must say that the draft needs to be put on television, and teams must be able to trade picks. The NFL draft, while way, way too long, is as good a product as ESPN owns rights to. After watching the draft yesterday, I was inspired to do a piece on what we are looking at in the Majors come June.

    Quiz: How many of the first-round draftees in yesterday's NFL draft were chosen in a MLB June Amateur draft?

    This year's version of the NFL draft was unsurprisingly characterized by the three skill positions, a battle of two quarterbacks, three running backs and three wide receivers. While the parallel is hardly perfect, Major League Baseball has some internal debates on the merits of two high school players, three college pitchers, and three collegiate shortstops.

    With the first choice in the draft, the San Francisco 49ers chose Alex Smith, a quarterback from the University of Utah. Smith edged out Aaron Rodgers on the San Francisco board, and while Rodgers then saw his stock drop considerably, the two were on equal footing in the past few weeks. High school baseball currently has two athletes that stand far, far away from the rest of the competition: Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin.

    In Peter Gammons most recent column, he pens that, "...the D-Backs will take Justin Upton with the first pick in the draft." So, I guess that ends the real controversy, but the more important question is whether that is the right decision. As far as Upton goes, Patrick Ebert of brewerfan.net writes that he "profiles as the same kind of special, 5-tool talent" as his brother B.J., and his tools are "off the chart." Upton has better speed than his brother did at the same age, and his bat is just about as good. The problem, like B.J., is the defense.

    In fact, Justin's defense could be worse than his brother, calling for an immediate move to the outfield. There have been rumors that Upton -- who possesses a very powerful arm -- has had Steve Blass issues at shortstop this year. A move to centerfield would be in order, where Upton's speed and arm would not be wasted. While moving from such a premium position would do a little to his total value, Upton still has fantastic potential.

    Should the rumors be true about Upton's move, however, I'm not sure much separates Upton from Cameron Maybin. The two, who have been friends since playing against each other at age eleven, both seem to have fantastic hitting talent. To compare to an argument we made earlier this week, Upton seems to be like Hanley Ramirez in the fast, high average type player, as Maybin is similar to Joel Guzman with the better power potential. In fact, Maybin is so well thought of that he has garnered numerous comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr.

    Where Maybin gets drafted remains to be seen, but don't be surprised to see him go second to Kansas City, third to Seattle, or later to the Milwaukee Brewers. Be shocked if he -- like the second QB drafted Aaron Rodgers -- suffers a draft-day freefall that has him picked later than sixth.

    For the first time in the history of the NFL draft, Saturday's version had three running backs chosen in the top five. While MLB has certainly entertained three college pitchers in the top 7 before, it looks like that will happen again in 2005. The pitchers? Luke Hochevar, Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Romero. To compare them to their running back counterparts, Hochevar is like Ronnie Brown, Pelfrey to Cadillac Williams, and Romero like Cedric Benson.

    Hochevar, currently Tennessee's Friday night pitcher, is like Brown in the sense that he might be the least polished (not by much) with the highest potential. He is the highest pitcher on Ebert's draft board, projected as the fourth best player available this June. He has been fantastic as a Volunteer, with a 1.67 ERA in 11 starts. Hochevar has struck out 87 batters in 80.2 innings, while allowing 24 walks, two home runs, and opposing batters to hit .194 off him.

    Statistically speaking, Pelfrey has been better than Hochevar this season, and also has a two inch size advantage (6-7 to 6-5). Pelfrey has pitched fantastically in 13 starts with the Shockers this season, good for eight wins and a sparkling 1.51 ERA. Hitters are batting just .192 off him, and he needs just one more strikeout to reach triple digits for the season. Patrick Ebert says that Pelfrey already has MLB pitches in his mid-90s fastball and slider, and already has implemented his change up into his repertoire. Pelfrey has been mentioned as a possible top pick for more than a year, and has wonderfully handled the pressure.

    The problems for the two players already mentioned: they are currently under the wing of mega-agent Scott Boras. I maybe should be avoiding that name around this site, as my partner is a little bitter that Jered Weaver is busier with Independent League GMs than the Angels. Ricky Romero, the southpaw from Cal State Fullerton does not have that problem. Despite being short and lacking the big fastball, Romero has proven he belongs in this argument after taking the Friday night pitcher role for the defending chapion Titans. While Romero's ERA (2.84) and opponents' batting average (.212) are also worse than the other two, Romero has had a harder schedule and still equals Pelfrey in strikeouts (99), and has the best K/BB of the three.

    As far as the pitchers go, in this draft Cedric Benson will go last. Romero, probably the safest choice of the three, is a possibility to the Blue Jays, or could suffer a bit of a drop. Hochevar and Pelrey, unless their bonus demands get crazy, should be among the five five players chosen. I would have Pelfrey ranked ahead of Hochevar on my board, but that's just me.

    We close with the wide receiver position, which may have been home to the most drama of the day. After Mel Kiper Jr. seemingly spent hours arguing that Mike Williams was the player of the draft, the former USC wideout was the third at his position drafted behind Braylon Edwards and Troy Williamson. Of the three big shortstops, need you guess who gets the Mike Williams label? That's right, Stephen Drew, likely entering the draft for the second time, this time as a Camden Rivershark. I would also say that Troy Tulowitzki is the Edwards of the draft, while Tyler Greene is the Williamson.

    Troy has been hurt for much of the season, allowing him to only get 80 at-bats, so sample size caveats do apply. But the Dirtbag shortstop continually draws comparisons to Bobby Crosby, thanks to his size (6-3) up the middle. Troy is hitting .363/.469/.613 this year, so while he doesn't have Crosby's power, he should make a quick change to the next level. We thought the same of Stephen Drew last June, who has essentially lost a year by not signing with the Diamondbacks. We'll see if, like his brother, Stephen can feast on Indy League pitching before making a rapid ascent to the bigs.

    The player with the least flaws of the three is Tyler Greene from Georgia Tech, who has really come on strong in the last year. Greene was fantastic in the Cape Cod League, showing the power potential that scouts did not believe he had. Greene comes with the most polished glove of the group, though Patrick Ebert says he can get erratic with his throws. Still the largest knock on Greene will be consistency at the plate, and Greene's season of .340/.421/.564 is not the caliber of Troy or Stephen. And I should mention since there were so many WRs drafted in the NFL's first round, Cliff Pennington from Texas A&M will also likely be among the first thirty players selected.

    For fun, here is my quick and dirty top ten players available in the June draft, which is admittedly far different than what most people believe:

    1. Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
    2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita State
    3. Cameron Maybin, CF, HS
    4. Justin Upton, SS/CF, HS
    5. Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee
    6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach St.
    7. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Virginia
    8. Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal State Fullerton
    9. Stephen Drew, SS/?, Boras' basement
    10. Jered Weaver, SP, Boras' basement

    Quiz answer: Two. Second overall choice Ronnie Brown was chosen by the Mariners in the 42nd round, while fourth overall pick Cedric Benson was a well thought of 12th round choice by the Dodgers. Benson was offered a decent amount of money to quit football, but instead decided to attend Texas. Before doing so, Benson had 25 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League, where he logged seven walks in the short span. Ahh, what could have been.

    WTNYApril 22, 2005
    Prospect Battles
    By Bryan Smith

    After Tuesday's article, in which I decided Hanley Ramirez is currently my top ranked shortstop prospect, I began to reconsider a few other decisions I made in January. Further thought, further information, the combination of 10 games and Spring Training all could explain why I have made these changes. After April we will explore what my rankings currently look like, but for now, I can tell you two players that are now over the other two.

    *****

    One battles injuries and opportunity, the other has issues with weight and consistency. Both came from high school with polished resumes, and had influential fathers to help their progress. Their skillsets are totally different: one offers huge power and defensive issues while the other is defense and average first.

    The two are baseball's best first base prospects. But in what order?

    Casey Kotchman was a first-round pick in 2001, when the Angels brought him into the organization in which his father coached. Even then Casey was drawing the inevitable J.T. Snow/Mark Grace comparison that comes with defense and discipline. A year later, Prince Fielder was drafted eighth overall, as the Brewers picked immediately before the Tigers had planned to pick him.

    Both players spent their age 19 season in the Midwest League, where Fielder won the league MVP in 2003. He outhomered Kotchman by 22, and even beat Casey in his own game, with an average thirty-two points better. Where Kotchman spent his next season between dominating the California League and on the disabled list, Fielder struggled in AA. Kotchman's best season was 2004, in which he tore through the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues en route to the Majors.

    This season, the pair are pitted against each other for the first time in the PCL. Kotchman's season began a nightmare for a prospect trying to prove he deserves a spot: nineteen at-bats without a hit. Currently Kotchman is hitting .137, and despite impressing with thirteen walks, still waiting on that first extra-base hit. Fielder has four of those, twice as many walks, and an underwhelming .233 average.

    Despite Kotchman's advantages in contact and defense, I think that Fielder's ceiling blows his competitor away. Prince began Spring Training on a tear, giving a sign of things to come to Brewer fans. Fielder will compete for the National League Rookie of the Year next year at 22. Kotchman needs injuries to play at that age, and the same will likely be true next year. Ryan Howard luck, Brian Roberts (v. 2004) power and a Jeter (v. 2004) slump is not the right way to convince the Angels to give him a spot.

    *****

    Felix Hernandez is baseball's best pitching prospect. Shocking, I know. His place atop the pitching heap is uncontested; no one else is particularly close. So the real question is not who is on top, but who follows him?

    Months ago, the answer surely would have been Adam Miller or Scott Kazmir. But Miller has arm problems and will be back by June at the earliest. Kazmir has now graduated from prospect status like 2004 Player of the Year Jeff Francis. So, the battle comes down to Giants pitcher Matt Cain and Dodger right-hander Chad Billingsley.

    Both the Dodgers and Giants are known in baseball for the occasional draft day surprise. Cain and Billingsley were both players that had rose to their first-round status weeks before the draft. Trying to decipher who has the stuff advantage is a fool's game; both players have very good stuff with a solid 1-2 combo. Mid-90s fastballs with a good breaking pitch is what had them noticed by scouts, and some great performances in the minors have them atop their organizational depth chart.

    In the past, I have used Kerry Wood as a comparison to Billingsley. While comparing his pure stuff to Kid K's might be a bit extreme, there are undoubtedly issues with control. Billingsley is probably about a year behind Wood's pace, meaning he'll hit the Majors at the age of 22. Now I'm not projecting any 20 strikeout games, but I think for Dodger fans, something better than Edwin Jackson will be enough for them.

    Despite being drafted a year before Billingsley, Cain is the same baseball age as his competitor. After showing good control in the Sally League in 2003 and to start the year last season, the W/9 was over 4.0 in the Eastern League last season. Cain scared me off before for being a little more hittable, a little more apt to allow the home run, and his fall-off in the EL last year. But, on second thought, hard to argue with fifteen good AA starts at 19.

    This season, Cain has become the rage. Billingsley has pitched modestly through three starts -- five runs in 13.2 innings with 16 K -- but pales in comparison to Cain. The Giant right-hander was unexpectedly moved to AAA, a move I would have discouraged, but a move he has proven ready for. Cain is months away from the Majors, at a place similar to Hernandez at only a year behind.

    Youth, control, stuff. Matt Cain. Baseball's second best pitching prospect.

    *****

    Finally, a few news and notes from around the minors:

    - J.D. Martin, who was noted by Baseball America to have added a cutter during the offseason, continues his run as the minors most impressive pitcher. While his scoreless streak was not quite Brad Thompson like -- ending after 19.1 innings yesterday -- Martin is probably the better prospect. A former first round pick that was available in the Rule 5 draft this winter, Martin struck out eleven while issuing just one walk in six innings yesterday. For those of you counting, that brings Martin's season K/BB to 28/4, while allowing just seven hits in 19 innings. Cleveland suffered a sizeable blow when Adam Miller went down during Spring Training, and Martin's continued breakout would be a solace for their huge loss.

    - Some might say that Jeff Niemann, the Devil Rays first round pick last June, is in competition with Cain and Billingsley for the top spot. Yesterday, we found out that it is true that Niemann is a bit more raw than the average college pitcher. The Stockton Ports did more than most universities could do the last two seasons, scoring five runs on the 6-9 right-hander in three innings. Niemann allowed two home runs in the game, a weakness that cannot continue should he stay high among the pitching prospects.

    - It's getting to the point where hitting .400 is impressive, and there are some good middle infield prospects still doing that feat. Howie Kendrick's 2/5 performance yesterday actually worsened his average to .418, as he also tacked on his ninth extra-base hit of the season. Meanwhile in the Midwest League, bonus babies Eric Patterson and Matt Tuiasasopo are both hitting fantastically. While Tui might not have the defense to stay at short, he's proving that he might just have enough in his bat for third.

    Any other prospects have numbers to gawk at in this young season? Any first-hand accounts?

    WTNYApril 19, 2005
    Mulling a Middle Move
    By Bryan Smith

    At shortstop, if you have to fill in, you're in trouble most of the time. The Defensive Spectrum is a necessary concept to explain why that is true because there is nobody drifting into the shortstop position because he failed at somewhere else.

    -- Bill James in an interview with Rich Lederer

    Despite scouts and signings calling for change, the minors' two best shortstop prospects have remained at their position this season. Playing on opposite ends of the East Coast, Hanley Ramirez and Joel Guzman are sinking their teeth into Double-A after what were breakout seasons for both in 2004.

    Both signed from the Dominican as 16-year-olds, and Guzman immediately became well-known signing a record-setting contract. His $2.25 million bonus broke the mark previously set by Miguel Cabrera, and put a lot of pressure on the kid. Los Angeles was touting his five-tool talents, from his fast 60-times to his extraordinary pop in his bat. Despite signing in early July of 2001, the Dodgers left Guzman's professional debut until the following season.

    Boston decided to do the same with their Dominican star, but having signed a year earlier left 2001 as Hanley's debut. The Red Sox stayed conservative with Hanley, leaving him near home playing in the Dominican Summer League. Ramirez finished having been named the Player of the Year, following a season in which he hit .345/.395/.533. Fifteen walks, thirteen steals and 25 extra-base hits in 197 at-bats was a sign of things to come for Ramirez.

    The less-than-conservative Dodgers allowed their star to skip the Dominican League, starting him in the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old that summer. Ramirez was making his American debut that same season at the age of eighteen, and his star outshone that of Guzman. Boston left their switch-hitting talent in the GCL for most of the summer, where he would hit .341/.402/.555 and be named a league All-Star. Guzman hit just .212 with just two doubles in 33 at-bats before the Dodgers promoted him a year after being signed to the Pioneer League.

    In their second league's that summer, again it was Hanley Ramirez that was best thought of. Ramirez took the rise to Lowell of the NYPL well, hitting .371/.400/.536. This was the first time that Hanley (who entered the league with a BB/K of 31/37 in 361 AB) struggled with plate discipline, walking just four times in 97 at-bats. This did not stop the Red Sox from naming Hanley their top position player from the Spinners. Los Angeles wished the same had been true for Guzman, who was very unprepared for the Pioneer League. Guzman hit .252/.331/.391, striking out in excess of 35% of hit at-bats.

    Over the winter separating 2002 and 2003, Hanley Ramirez gave the Red Sox the first flaw to his resume. Boston sent their top prospect home during the Instructional League after the teenager cussed out an assistant trainer. This did not stop Red Sox brass from downplaying popular comparisons to Alfonso Soriano, and having international scouting director Louie Eljaua throw out Edgar Renteria's name.

    Unfortunately, Ramirez continued to worry evaluators with maturity issues when making his full-season debut with Augusta in 2003. After off to a slow start in mid-May, Ramirez was sent to extended spring training (missing eight games) after making an "inappropriate gesture" towards a fan. Less than a month later Ramirez suffered a sprained shoulder during a brawl in which one newspaper reported Ramirez nearly went into the stands with a bat. While the Red Sox downplayed this incident, there was no question Hanley had a ways to go.

    For the second straight season, Guzman joined Ramirez in 2003 in the South Atlantic League. While Hanley's summer was tainted with the maturity problems, Guzman continued to not have success and still get promoted. The Dodgers moved Joel to Vero Beach mid-summer despite Guzman hitting just .235/.263/.406 and having major issues with plate discipline. At this point in his young career, Guzman had 32 walks and 124 strikeouts in 401 walks. There was no significant change in Joel's numbers as he moved to the FSL, with a .650 OPS and very limited power. At the end of the 2003 season, Guzman had a frame too big for playing up the middle, and a .242 career average too small for the corners.

    Doubts also started to cloud Ramirez' scouting report after 2003, where his play and his head gave him competition for the Red Sox top prospect slot. Hanley had just a .730 OPS in the South Atlantic League, committing more errors (36) than walks (32) in 111 games. Still, 36 steals and just one less extra-base hit gave Hanley Baseball America's top spot among Boston players. Boston promised their star would be a good citizen going forward, and comparisons to Edgar Renteria stayed despite his struggles.

    In 2004, good things started to happen to the two shortstops that had been hyped for three years. Starting in the Florida State League, things began to click for the players. Guzman hit .307/.349/.550 in 87 games at Vero Beach, combatting selectivity problems with 44 extra-base hits in 329 at-bats. Ramirez played in 62 FSL games, hitting .310/.364/.389 with twelve steals and just 13 extra-base hits before a promotion.

    Good things continued upon promotion to AA, as Guzman's numbers were just impacted by the .027 point loss on his batting average. He still hit more than 20 extra-base hits in less than 200 at-bats, and began to walk more often. Ramirez increased his plate discipline minimally, but showed improvements in his career stolen base (80%) and Isolated Power (.202) rates. Hanley actually bested Guzman's AA OPS numbers, but his power problems in FSL allowed Joel to jump Ramirez for the first time in prospect status.

    Going forward, it remains to be seen whether these two players will move from their shortstop positions. Guzman's height, 78 inches tall, has led many scouts to question whether he will be able to stay up the middle. His defense has not suffered right now, but a move from Cesar Izturis to Guzman would likely be a serious reduction in range. A move to the hot corner or the outfield could be in order. Hanley might move to the outfield as well, possibly replacing Johnny Damon in center, after the Red Sox signed Edgar Renteria this past winter. The Red Sox have moved Dustin Pedroia to second and left Ramirez at short for the time being, leaving many to wonder if Hanley is simply the best trade bait available on the market.

    Currently, Ramirez is continuing to get the best of AA, leading the Eastern League with five triples. Ramirez has yet to hit a home run, but the triples, stolen bases, discipline and small number of errors has made Hanley's start a good one. Guzman has not started the season so well, striking out thirteen times in his first 39 at-bats.

    Right now, it looks like Hanley might be in the lead for the top spot, though the two remain neck and neck. A move to third for Guzman and to center for Hanley look to be the two most likely possibilities, but expect both to be left at short for as long as possible.

    WTNYApril 15, 2005
    True Outcomes and Sample Sizes
    By Bryan Smith

    At what point in the season do statistics start being complete enough to judge? Maybe after sixteen games (10% of the season), 32 games (20%), or even 40 games (25%)? My guess is that every person will have a different answer to this question, when they will start valuing a player's numbers for what he has become. Today my argument is that while it is too early to look at batting averages or slugging percentages, walks and strikeout totals are fair game.

    So with that in mind, I set out to find the minor league players who are becoming sabermetric favorites and enemies in the early going. To qualify for the favorite category, a player had to be somewhat of a prospect and have already drawn more than five walks. Enemies had to have at most one walk, with at least seven strikeouts.

    What is surprising is that in both categories combined, only four hitters have batting averages greater than .300. Both of these types are extremes as players, and to see them struggling in the early going is hardly shocking. While we'll surely check back in with this group at season's end, my hypothesis is that the walk-heavy players are more likely to bounce back.

    Without further theorizing or hypothesizing, let's get to the players. First, the soon-to-be sabermetric favorites, by order of their current on-base percentages:

  • Ryan Howard (AAA): .500/.621/.700. This guy is like the baseball version of Marvin Williams of the national champion North Carolina basketball team. While Williams has the talent to be a top-three pick should he come out this June, he still could not break the vaunted UNC starting lineup. Howard is as accomplished as any minor leaguer, yet has no chance in an organization who made Jim Thome the face of the franchise. Howard is simply auditioning for a trade, for which he has already requested of Ed Wade. Despite having record-setting power, Howard has not homered yet this season, leaving his TTO total at 13 (eight walks).

  • Reid Brignac (A-): .450/.593/.700. The 45th overall pick in last June's draft, Brignac came as accomplished as any hitter coming out of Louisiana. The Tampa Bay organization started boasting Brignac from the second they drafted him. The Major League Baseball scouting service said Last June that his "long, lean, athletic frame" has "lots of room to fill out and get bigger and stronger." Brignac has already walked seven times this season, a rate few high school players achieve in their first go at full-season ball. This is a guy to really watch, because he could just be that guy whose star begins shining very soon.

  • Carlos Quentin (AAA): .450/.586/1.000. Quentin, like Howard, simply does not have much left to prove in the minors. Since the Dodgers were never impressed much with Shawn Green's right field play, it is likely that Green will move, opening up a spot for Quentin in 2006. The question is whether Green's move will be to first base, effectively blocking Quentin's buddy Conor Jackson, or a move to his fourth organization. As far as Quentin goes, he's been perfect in the Pacific Coast League so far this season. He has just one strikeout to go with his seven walks and nine hits in twenty at-bats. While caveats of the immense hitting parks within the Arizona system apply, I admit to having underrated Quentin in the past. This is a legit top 25 prospect, and will be the first part of the youth overhaul Phoenix fans should be seeing the next few years.

  • Brad Nelson (AAA): .381/.567/.571. Before the name Ryan Sweeney was known by anyone, there was Brad Nelson, the original Iowa farm boy. Nelson became the top Brewer prospect a few seasons ago with a great season in the Midwest League, before Milwaukee futility allowed them to draft the likes of Weeks, Fielder, and others that have made this system so plentiful. An underwhelming 2004, sort of a theme for Brewers in Huntsville, left Nelson at the bottom of the corner outfield chain of Corey Hart, Nelson Cruz and him. This beginning has made Nelson a need-to-know again, especially with his 9/2 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Milwaukee has a big decision as to whether re-sign Carlos Lee when his contract runs up, and the play of Nelson will likely largely shape that decision.

  • David Espinosa (AA): .273/.409/.500. A first-round pick in what was probably the most disappointing draft in the last decade (2000), Espinosa's career is starting to come together in Detroit. David started playing outfield in addition to shortstop last season, and his 10/2 BB/K ratio is another plus on his resume. Espinosa is similar to a few other minor leaguers (Kelly Johnson, Drew Meyer) in the fact that a move from short to outfield has opened the possibility of a Major League career. If Espinosa can continue to prove he can play short, and add a few more positions (LF? 3B?), a career as a bench player is all-but-guaranteed.

  • Justin Huber (AA): .278/.389/.500. If Justin Huber pans out in Kansas City, who traded the rights of journeyman Jose Bautista for him, we are really going to have to make fun of Met fans. Huber was the prized jewel of the Met system a few years ago, but became a bit of a tweener between catcher and first base in recent years. If Rob Neyer is right and Calvin Pickering is not the answer at DH, Huber's path to the Majors will be an easy one. The Royals have a catcher-turned-first baseman mentor in Mike Sweeney that might really help Huber transition to the position. Royal fans should have an ISO watch on Huber, because if that stays over .200, the Australian kid might just be replacing Mr. Sweeney.

    Well, those are all the players on my list to have at least eight walks this season. To quickly hit on the others, I should start with the PCL superstars, Casey Kotchman and Prince Fielder. Kotchman notched his first hit in more than twenty tries on Tuesday, not exactly sparking confidence in the Angels to trade Darin Erstad. Fielder has come out of the blocks a little slow (.217/.419/.478), but Lyle Overbay will allow him to take all the time he needs. As far as vaunted sluggers go, Eric Duncan is walking in the Eastern League, but the problem is existent in his .160 average and zero extra-base hits in 25 at-bats.

    Last season we saw the Texas League eat up Jeff Mathis, and it will surely try to do the same to Mike Napoli this season. Napoli has a low average (.222) to go with a high slugging (.500) so far, making some wonder if he would be better than their favorite team's Major League back-up (he was available in the Rule 5). Russ Martin is a fellow Double-A catcher trying to succeed in the Southern League, fresh off a dazzling performance in Spring Training.

    Tony Giarratano is another that impressed in the Grapefruit League, but has not come off the blocks fantastically in the Eastern League. Detroit fancies Giarratano as future help up the middle, but I'm worried his combination of low power, and moderate speed and defensive skills will hardly land him any full-time job. Eric Patterson is trying to take the same trek Giarratano did last year, and has started to impress in the Midwest League. Walks, power and tons of speed is not a package you always get from your second baseman, so us Cub fans have to keep our fingers crossed on this one. Finally I've also mentioned Kelly Johnson already, who like Espinosa before him, is right on the cusp of becoming a very useful bench player in Atlanta.

    Alright, alright, I'm sick of being positive. Let's get to the players that new-age baseball fans won't be too fond of:

  • In AAA, both Tony Pena Jr. and Sergio Santos are currently sporting 1/10 walk-to-strikeout ratios. Pena is the type of player that old school types love, with his defense and pedigree. He'll need to sustain that .333 average to be anything special, and if the past is any indicator, he won't be. Santos on the other hand has a chance to be something, but has come out of the blocks in quite the funk this season. Santos has little hope of breaking the starting lineup this season, so he'll have every chance to succeed in Tuscon.

  • To continue the middle infielder trend, Delwyn Young in the Southern League has become the antidote to Russ Martin in the Jacksonville lineup. Young is similar to Mets on-again, off-again bench player Victor Diaz, as a player with some pop that could not cut it defensively up the middle. Young is also going to need to walk more than once for every thirty plate appearances to succeed, though his current .231 ISO looks mighty friendly.

  • I talked about the disappointment of Chris Lubanski a bit on Tuesday, so it comes as no surprise that he finds himself here at this point in the season. Lubanski has yet to walk in 32 at-bats, but unlike last season, is showing a few traces of power. It's too early to call Lubanski a complete bust, but if ever there was such a fast disappointment, he is it. Surprisingly joining Lubanski in the zero-walk club is Indian outfielder Brad Snyder, a former first-round pick from Ball State University. Cleveland is going to be a very hard place to break into very soon, and this is not the right start in becoming a Mark Shapiro favorite.

  • Finally, let's close in low-A. If Delwyn Young was balancing Russ Martin walk wise, Ryan Harvey is sure doing the same to Eric Patterson in Peoria. Harvey, one of the players the Royals should have considered drafting, also has yet to walk this season. To make matters worse, he has just one hit in sixteen at-bats. J.C. Holt and Jon Poterson, both chosen in the first two rounds last June aren't doing much better, with just one walk and seven hits in a combined 44 at-bats.

    So, there you have it. My expectation is that unlike the averages of all the players mentioned today, which should greatly fluctuate, their IsoD's (OBP-BA) should remain either strong or weak. For while power and speed are skills, patience is a virtue.

  • WTNYApril 12, 2005
    Hindsight's Thinking
    By Bryan Smith

    When does judging the quality of a draft first make sense? While researching for what this article was going to be -- early thoughts on the first round of the 2004 draft -- I asked myself this question. Is short-season ball, a few scouting reports and five games enough to start dissecting the resume of draftees? I don't think so.

    Instead, my decision is the statute of limitations is one full season. Sure we can look back at drafts ten, twenty and thirty years old and have the best perspective, but one season is when becoming an armchair GM is first excusable.

    With that being said, I wanted to look at the first 15 picks in the 2003 draft. Nine of these players were one of my top fifty prospects, far better than the lousy 2002 draft that preceded it. With criticizing drafts, we must remember to put these choices in the context of June, 2003, as things appeared far different at that time. Converting a draft pick into a Major League player is part scouting, part development and part luck. Forgetting any part of that equation and throwing all the blame on the person behind any of these choices is negligible.

    Let us turn back the clock more than twenty months to early summer, 2003, with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on the board. The organization wanted to put a star that could team with B.J. Upton on their organizational map, and use their first overall choice a little better than the first time (Josh Hamilton). Away we go...

    Months before June, it appeared as the top of the draft heap did not offer much. Rickie Weeks was generally considered to be the top player, as the Southern University second baseman was well on his way to Golden Spikes' honors. Tampa Bay was not as sold on Weeks, and entertained options of Ryan Harvey, Marc Cornell and Kyle Sleeth with the first selection.

    Over time, it became apparent that Chuck Lamar and staff were undecided between two players: Delmon Young and Weeks. Young was a California outfielder that had been hyped since Little League and had Major League pedigree to boot. Weeks finished up a ridiculous .500/.619/.987 season, drawing comparisons to Joe Morgan up the middle. Eventually, a batting practice session in Tropicana Field sold the organization on Young, allowing Weeks to fall into the Milwaukee Brewers laps with the second choice.

    With almost two years between that decision and today, who would the Devil Rays choose? Young has become the top prospect in baseball since June of 2003, with advanced power and a good approach at the plate. Meanwhile, Weeks dominated low-A weeks after signing, ending the season in the Majors. His 2004 was a disappointment in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, showing flaws in his game both offensively and defensively. The presence of Jorge Cantu, along with the huge power advantage Young currently has indicates that the Devil Rays made the right decision. But in the end, this could turn out to be a choice between Albert Belle and Gary Sheffield.

    Just as the first two picks became a choice of two sluggers, the Tigers and Padres were left fighting between college pitchers with the next two picks. Detroit had first dibs on the Sleeth-Stauffer selection, one (Sleeth) with a high ceiling and one (Stauffer) with considerable polish. Take a look at how the two compared in their sophomore and junior seasons combined:

    Name	ERA	H/9	K/9	K/BB	HR/9
    Sleeth	2.90	8.12	9.04	3.07	0.50
    Stauff	1.73	6.82	9.90	3.40	0.31

    As you can see, Richmond starter Tim Stauffer had the statistical edge. Obviously there is a strength of schedule difference between Stauffer at Richmond and Kyle Sleeth from Wake Forest, but the numbers still favor Stauffer. But radar gun readings and rumors of a sore Stauffer arm made the selection easy for the Tigers. Kyle Sleeth has not quite been a revelation since being chosen, but his struggles in AA last year could have been park related as much as anything else. Sleeth still profiles to be a Tiger starter, but his likelihood of succeeding is not like Stauffer, who has become a favorite of mine.

    With the Kansas City Royals and Daniel Glass picking in the five spot, it was obvious that money would be an issue. The three best high school talents on the board (Ryan Harvey, Lastings Milledge, John Danks) all had high bonus demands, taking them off the Royal wish list. So it became obvious days before the draft that Chris Lubanski -- who had stated he wanted to be reporting to the minors by June 15 -- was the Royals best option.

    Lubanski ended up signing quickly with the Royals for $2.1M, making $25,000 more than Milledge and the same as Danks. Harvey inked for $2.4M, but considering that all three players are far better prospects than the man with the .662 OPS, the Royals screwed up here. Lastings Milledge turned out to be the best choice, and with proper communication with his agent would have saved the club money. Considering the failure that the five-turned-zero tool Lubanski has been.

    Solace for a horrible 2002 season to north side Chicagoans was Ryan Harvey, a Florida outfielder with huge power. Brian Dopirak's former high school teammate became "Sammy Sosa's successor" like that, and the Cubs slow-moving system has left his prospect status a bit cloudy. 2005 will be Harvey's full-season debut, as he must start to turn his tools into talent. After two games we see the strikeouts might be a problem, with five already in eight at-bats.

    With the seventh choice in the draft, the Baltimore Orioles were the first real spot with a considerable amount of uncertainty. Ian Stewart and Michael Aubrey were both considered to be the projected choices here, up until the Nick Markakis workout in Baltimore. Markakis' Greek roots and pitcher/hitter athleticism made him a favorite of both Peter Angelos and Doc Rodgers alike. While Markakis had been offered a pre-draft deal with the Reds, the Junior College Player of the Year made more than $300,000 extra signing with the O's.

    For some reason or another, the Pirates have not made a secret of their choices in recent memory. Neil Walker, a hometown native, was a Pirate in nearly every mock draft published last June. In 2002, Bryan Bullington was given the nod ahead of B.J. Upton weeks in advance. In this draft, the choice was Paul Maholm, the third best college pitcher, and one of just four collegiate starters drafted in the first round. Given the fall-off from Sleeth and Stauffer to Maholm and Sullivan, this is arguably one of the worst first rounds for collegiate pitching ever. I'm sure the team would have loved to have the money to sign Jeff Allison, but now even Maholm looks good in comparison. Hindsight is 20-20, I guess.

    The next four choices, picks 9-13, were all simply the best player available. Grady Fuson shed his label of a college-only drafter by choosing John Danks, Colorado picked a Californian slugger, Cleveland landed a polished college first baseman, and New York an expensive, mature-lacking but tools-heavy outfielder. Criticizing any of the choices here would be wrong, as all four picks were among my top thirty prospects. The order of the four is Stewart, Milledge, Aubrey and Danks, but it is hard to criticize the Rangers for adding pitching depth and the Indians for a college-first philosophy.

    With the thirteenth choice, J.P. Riccardi and company decided to throw the media for a curve. After weeks of tooting Brad Sullivan's horn, the Jays decided the Houston right-hander was a reach, and collegiate pitching could be found in later rounds. They instead found Aaron Hill, a shortstop from LSU, who had been a favorite of college-focused organizations like Boston and Cleveland later in the teens. While Hill played the same position as the new Jays regime's premier first-round pick, Russ Adams, the organization decided it was a good problem to have. While Hill has not blossomed the way it was hoped, he looks to be an alright prospect with a bit of power potential.

    Did they reach their college pitching in later rounds goal? Kind of. Eleven of their next thirteen selections were hurlers from college, though it doesn't appear as they landed any blue-chippers. Both Josh Banks and Jamie Vermilyea have shown some potential, and certainly Shaun Marcum, Kurt Isenberg and Tom Mastny are nice fillers for minor league rotations. Brad Sullivan's dead arm in the Oakland organization has made this pick look good for J.P., who probably still wishes that his first two first-round picks had been Jeff Francis and Michael Aubrey.

    Cincinnati has always been a fan of the pre-draft deal, as Carl Lindner's frugal ways put a bit of a strain on the Reds. This year was no exception, as the team heavily pursued the likes of Markakis and Eric Duncan before the draft. While both of those players were offensive projects with considerably potential, the actual fourteenth selection was quite the opposite. Ryan Wagner had succeeded in taking the reins from Jesse Crain at the Houston closer position, and following a NCAA record-setting season (K/9), Wagner looked as if he could help teams right away.

    So he did, pitching in nine minor league games before receiving a call to Cincy. He was arguably the club's best reliever the last month of the season, putting a considerable onus on the 22-year-old as Danny Graves' set-up man in 2004. After a horrible start to the season Wagner was sent down, and after re-finding his stuff in 15 AAA appearances, closed out the season well. Wagner is still the Reds' future closer, and his pick still makes more sense than fellow 2003 first-round relievers Chad Cordero and David Aardsma.

    Finally, there is Ken Williams, who surprised some people with his selection of Arizona outfielder Brian Anderson. Teamed with Ryan Sweeney in the second round, the two outfielders have been well thought of since that day in June. Both players could have everyday jobs on the south side in 2006, when Jermaine Dye's two-year contract in right field ends. It is amazing how quick Jeremy Reed and Joe Borchard were thrown off the organizational ladder for these two, and time will tell if that was a good decision. But for now, Anderson was a great choice at fifteen.

    So there you have it. Kansas City is really the only team with an obvious screw up, though Detroit and Pittsburgh also opened themselves up for criticism. With an important season on tap for Sleeth, Harvey, Markakis and Hill, another year will only further help us grade out this draft. Time and hindsight vision is all an armchair GM needs for constant success.

    WTNYApril 08, 2005
    Tripled Up
    By Bryan Smith

    "I don't get to see a lot of minor leaguers...Triple-A just doesn't get to see the 'best prospects.'"
    - Will Carroll, in a 4/4 Baseball Prospectus Chat

    Last season, just eight prominent prospects (Sizemore, Hardy, Krynzel, Claussen, Youkilis, Adams, Quiroz, Rios) started the season in the International League. It did not take long for Brandon Claussen, Kevin Youkilis and Alexis Rios to make the Majors, and J.J. Hardy suffered a season-ending injury in May. Will, an Indianapolis native and frequent at Victory Field, just did not see the blue-chip prospects that Texas or California League natives did.

    A year later, the International League has become a hotbed for prospects. With many of the best prospects on the horizon, the fourteen organizations with affiliates have sent some of their top players to AAA. This time around, a whopping 15 players that would make my top 150 prospect list (if it existed) are in Carroll territory. Furthermore, some very good "sophomores" are back on the farm after uninspiring springs as well.

    After being ranked baseball's best prospect by a few different places, Andy Marte will move to Richmond this year as his trek through the Atlanta system continues. On Wednesday it looked as if Chipper Jones may have hurt himself a few times, which at this point is all Marte needs for the door to open. The outfield expirament has been abandoned, meaning a Jones injury or position change (not likely) is what Marte needs to reach the Majors. We'll see what happens this coming winter on the Chipper front, because he will either be moving back to left or find himself on the trading block.

    On Richmond's opening day, Marte will find himself playing defense for Kyle Davies. I've written numerous times how high the Atlanta organization is on Davies, and that he may have an impact on the NL East race. There is much debate about just how good his stuff is, or how injury-prone his delivery makes him, but this is a case of just having to trust the Braves' front office. Considering the men Davies replaced from the "Top Brave Pitching Prospect" slot -- Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer -- had a combined 2.67 ERA in 104 innings last year, expect Davies to have success.

    Beating out Davies for the IL's best pitching prospect is Brandon McCarthy, one of the 2005 Cactus League stars. Ken Rosenthal has talked about how McCarthy had one of Arizona's best breaking pitches, making some wonder how it will break out of the desert. Great control and a serious out pitch will likely mean that McCarthy won't get to 15 starts before getting called up; Jon Garland and Jose Contreras have very little room for error.

    Playing behind McCarthy will be Brian Anderson, the White Sox former first-round pick. If it is fair to say Kyle Davies allowed the Braves to trade Capellan and Meyer, than Anderson's presence was enough to deal Jeremy Reed. There is not a lot that Anderson does wrong, and playing a full season at the minors' highest level should do a lot for his stock. My belief is that Aaron Rowand will regress considerably this year, opening the door for Anderson in 2006. An increase in power will make him one of baseball's top twenty prospects quickly.

    Curtis Granderson will be standing in Anderson's way for the IL CF All-Star spot. The latter should win, but Granderson will also set himself up for a 2006 job. I believe that moving out of Erie will significantly decrease Curtis' OPS, but if he proves to be the player he was in August, I'll be proven wrong. He could platoon with Craig Monroe by season's end, setting himself up for a full-time job once he proves he can hit southpaws.

    One prospect that has already proven everything that he can is Ryan Howard from the Phillies. Jim Thome is putting the bat-block on Howard's development, prompting the first baseman to ask the Phillies for a trade. He and Marlon Byrd make a very good combination, giving Ed Wade a serious bargaining chip in negotiations. There aren't a lot of bad teams that couldn't use Howard, though I must say that I'm far less confident in his abilities than a lot of people.

    On the other hand, Francisco Rosario of the Blue Jays is a player that I am higher on than most. The big right-hander is pretty assured of landing some role with the Blue Jays in the next two years, and this will be the season to decide whether that will be in the rotation or the bullpen. This being his second season back from arm surgery, I expect Rosario to have his best year yet in Syracuse.

    His battery mate will be, when fully recovered from a minor injury, Guillermo Quiroz. A great prospect before 2004 that lost a lot of value this year, the Blue Jays still believe that Quiroz will be their everyday catcher in 2006. Quiroz has both defense and power, but will be overshadowed (again) by the Skychiefs' shortstop. Aaron Hill takes over those duties from Russ Adams this year, the man he expects to compete with in a year. I like Hill at short and Adams at second, making Orlando Hudson the man dealt for pitching.

    Edwin Encarnacion is a one-time shortstop that has already made the switch, one over to the hot corner. Encarnacion was probably not pleased to see Joe Randa -- who he is set to replace in 2006 -- start the season so well, but it should not stop the Reds from bringing up Edwin fairly soon. If anything, Randa should give Cincy a good person to trade (with Griffey?) in July, when Edwin should be ready. But I have noticed the Cincinnati front office is not too high on Encarnacion, indicating he might be the odd man out. Man, could you imagine what a Encarnacion/Wily Mo Pena package would yield?

    Maybe that could allow Minnesota to make a trade, as they are finding far more depth in the rotation that they would have imagined. Scott Baker pitched extraordinarily well in Spring Training, prompting some to wonder if he had moved ahead of J.D. Durbin on the organizational depth chart. The two will slug it out in the next two months, waiting for a chance to break the rotation. Durbin could also become a reliever, adding to what Peter Gammons has already coined the deepest power bullpen in baseball.

    It's poise, not power, that makes Zach Duke one of the Pirates best prospects. The soft-throwing southpaw drew the repsonsibility of facing Curt Schilling in his opener, and was not overshadowed, besting the superstar in a game yesterday. Duke will be called up the second he shows that the International League is not a problem for him, which should not be long. Seldom should you listen to Tom Glavine comparisons, but Duke might be the exception to the rule.

    One final player to watch in the International League is Ryan Garko, the Matt LeCroy/Josh Phelps-type hitter from the Indian system. Where Garko fits into the Indians future is a bit in question, but they will not give up on that bat. Garko will be joined in Buffalo by Brandon Phillips, who lost the SS battle with Jhonny Peralta. After looking good in the league last year, Phillips only has so many more things to prove until he moves to another organization. It also looked as if neither of these players would be the best Bison, as only a Juan Gonzalez injury saved Grady Sizemore from being sent down. Why the Indians would make this decision is beyond me -- Sizemore could be the best of the Cleveland outfielders -- but I have also learned to always trust Mark Shapiro.

    Who I cannot trust, however, is Chuck Lamar. The Devil Rays decided during Spring Training that B.J. Upton, who should be a household name by now, will go back to Durham. What the Devil Rays should have done was keep Upton at shortstop, move Lugo to second, and the red-hot Cantu to third. Alex Gonzalez might have a home run already this season, but call me crazy, I don't think he'll be around when Delmon Young is ready to turn this team into a contender.

    I have no doubt that this season, dozens of good players will stroll through the International League. Will Carroll, just another IL fan constantly disgusted with the quad-A talent he sees, will find this year a welcome contrast. And in 2006, we will all find the Majors a stark contrast with dozens of young players...all of whom came from triple-A.

    WTNYApril 05, 2005
    Waiting for Monday
    By Bryan Smith

    We spend a winter magnifying, analyzing, and criticizing. We talk about baseball in other countries, or exhibitions in Arizona. We get excited about standing in hotel lobbies in December, waiting for news -- any news -- to break.

    We have the Super Bowl, the BCS, March Madness. We have the slam dunk competition, the Pro Bowl, and, most years, hockey.

    But all these things are simply what we use to distract our attention. Every year, our winters are filled with waiting. Waiting for home runs, strikeouts, and stolen bases. Or better yet, waiting for days like Monday.

    Thanks to ESPN, WGN, and, of course, MLB TV, I was able to catch part of every single game that was played on Monday. It was action-packed, enthralling, and, at times, dramatic. My thoughts from the sights and sounds of baseball's Opening Day...

  • I saw the story of the day -- drug-free power -- and in a big way. From the left side, there were Dmitri Young and Adam Dunn. From the right, Richie Sexson and Xavier Nady. I saw two of Young's three home runs, both offspeed pitches that Jose Lima missed with on the inside part of the plate. Our modern day version of Tuffy Rhodes is proving that power doesn't recede with age in his family, and maybe teaching Delmon it's OK to be old, too. Both of Dunn's home runs were fastballs that weren't quite fast enough. Sexson made his first Mariner at-bat count, muscling a ball right over the left field fence. Nady used the elements (the Rockie mountains) to his advantage, and came away with four RBI.

  • I also saw a lot of another form of power: from the mound. There was Ben Sheets against Oliver Perez, a match of top two K/9 pitchers from 2004. Neither looked fantastic, but mid-90s fastballs and jaw-dropping breaking pitches were quite prevalent. As well as, of course, a lot of the "praying mantiss" wind-up that Perez should become famous for. Surprisingly there was also some power in Tampa, where Roy Halladay and Dewon Brazelton both pitched quite well. Reports of Halladay being back make quite a lot of sense after seeing that curve, let me tell you. But the best came first, when Jeremy Bonderman led off the day wonderfully, striking out five in the first two innings. Everyone's favorite breakout candidate started the season well, fooling many a Royal with that great breaking pitch.

  • The pitcher of the day was not one with a mid-90s fastball though, it was Mark Buerhle. I heard Hawk Harrelson call the 1-0 throwback style game, with Buerhle's cutter outdueling Jake Westbrook's sinker. Jake did force an astounding seventeen ground ball outs, constantly throwing the pitch down in the zone. If Alex Cora had been in the game at short rather than Jhonny Peralta (a bobble allowed the only run to cross home), my AL Central pick might be 1-0. But you can't say enough about Buerhle, who looked great all spring. With the best rotation depth they have had since Mark broke into the Majors, the general public might be selling Ozzie's club a bit short this year.

  • Heading back to power, I saw it in both kinds from the Mets newcomers today. Pedro Martinez struggled in his first Met inning -- giving up one Dunn shot -- before settling down to strike out twelve in six innings. Pedro was up to 94 mph with his fastball, and his change looked as good as ever. Omar Minaya's other huge winter addition, Carlos Beltran, also made his presence felt in his Mets debut. Falling a triple short of the cycle, Beltran homered in his second at-bat, tying the game for the Mets. Then in the seventh inning, the center fielder singled home the go-ahead run. Think the Wilpons are happy consumers today?

  • What Fred likely is not happy about, however, was the inattention paid to the bullpen this winter. This negligence cost Minaya and the Mets big time in their opener, as Braden Looper proved he might not be the best option at closer for a contending team. I saw Looper cost Pedro the win, giving up home runs to Dunn and Joe Randa, who hit a walk-off in his first game as a Red.

  • In the aforementioned Jays-Rays game, I saw in the bottom of the third how the Devil Rays plan to win games this year. With runners on the corners and one out, Carl Crawford hit what should have been an inning-ending 5-4-3 double play. Not only did Crawford leg out a fielder's choice to allow Chris Singleton to score, but the pressure he put on Orlando Hudson caused a throwing error. In the top of the third, I saw how the Blue Jays plan to win. Hudson took Brazelton deep, and Vernon Wells followed him with a shot of his own. Home runs for one, small ball for the other. I'll take the Jays.

  • I saw Coors be Coors, in a game where there was thirty hits and eight home runs. Somehow I missed six of the home runs while tuning in on other games, but I did see Jeff Baker make his first Major League hit count. If ever there was a stadium for a pitcher ERA to be left at 54.00 (I'm looking at you, Brian Fuentes), it was this one. I also saw Philadelphia act like they played in altitude, as that game had 27 hits. Four different times I switched over to see the bases loaded, scoring I believe a total of one run. As much as we like to trample on RBI as a stat, I think Washington will tell you a few more two-out RBI would have given them their first win.

  • I saw many new beginnings, including very good ovations for Magglio Ordonez, Sammy Sosa, and the two new Seattle sluggers. Ordonez struggled in his at-bats, Sosa was on base three times, and I did get to see Beltre's lone hit. While Sosa and Ordonez are both superstars, it is nice that both have discounted their centerpiece role and recognized Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez, respectively. Also, if anyone saw Ivan Rodriguez today, they'll know why you might want to trade for him in your fantasy league.

  • One rarity I saw was two Rule 5 picks play in Opening Day. I wonder if this has happened before, as normally I would think these players are not seen as first day options. To see Andy Sisco on the mound was nothing I would have ever predicted a year ago. He was back in the mid-90s, but I was enthused to see some not-so-great fastball control from him. He was also responsible for hitting a batter that led to both benches being warned. Tony Blanco came in to pinch hit for the Nationals, and struck out, showing a very, very long swing. Believe me, this kid has a lot more strike outs coming his way before that career is over.

  • Another first of mine today was seeing three Asian pitchers throw in one day. Shingo Takatsu, the most unique pitcher in baseball, closed out Mark Buerhle's gem today. And both Akinori Otsuka and Dae Sung Koo set up the closers effectively in their games. Takatsu is undoubtedly the best of that bunch, and while his statistics call for regression, he might just be the exception to the rule.

  • Finally, there was the Cubs. Like the Red Sox-Yankees game on Sunday I was able to watch every pitch, and unlike Sunday, came away smiling. As much as I've complained about the occasional decision, this is a very good team, and one that will hit more than people think. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez both could be on the cusp of superstardom, and everyone is jumping on the Nomar bandwagon this year. All three looked fantastic against some bad pitching yesterday, with Aramis the star after signing a four-year extension hours before the game. Zambrano struggled a bit, but was every bit himself, and should be fine. As long as they can score consistently, which was the problem last year, this Cubs team will at least be right in the Wild Card hunt.

    Baseball is back in a big way, and if we can have days like this until next winter, it was well worth the wait.

  • WTNYApril 01, 2005
    Spring Cleaning
    By Bryan Smith

    Every year with the end of Spring Training comes considerable uncertainty, as teams are forced to show their hands with respect to their 25-man roster. Second guessing sends General Managers to their cell phone, and each season, we see an abundance of movement.

    Lost velocity sends a pitcher to the minors. A bad sample size puts a hitter on the waiver wire. A lack of options gets a player dealt. Rule 5 picks are kept, put on the DL, offered back and traded for. Besides the trade deadline and the Winter Meetings, these days are among the busiest for a Major League front office.

    This season is no exception, and while we have not seen any huge deals, some familiar names have been passing hands. Today I want to look at the deals of this week, and their implications on the 25-man roster. In addition to that, it also appears each choice from the Rule 5 pick has his immediate future now decided, so we can look at that.

    To me, the most surprising news of the week was Baltimore jumping ship on former top prospect Matt Riley. The combination of control problems, make-up issues and lost velocity did not go together well for the Orioles, who look like they will instead give their fifth starter spot to Rick Bauer. They landed Ramon Nivar, a former hot-shot prospect that looks like he could carve a nice superutility career together.

    In Riley, the Rangers got a bit of a project, and one they cannot send down to the minors (no options). Expect Orel Hershiser to tackle this hard in the next few weeks, working on getting Riley's velocity back in the mid-90s and sharpening his control. Hershiser has done well in Texas, turning some average players into useful ones, like Ryan Drese. Riley comes with as much potential as anyone Orel has worked with, and I would not bet against him here.

    The most well known player in the news lately is Byung-Hyun Kim, the once-closer of the World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks. The Red Sox, who admitted a mistake in making him a ten million dollar investment, traded the right-hander to the Colorado Rockies. Theo Epstein has been quite busy this spring, securing a slew of bullpen arms that made Kim expendable.

    First was Blaine Neal, who the team traded for on March 22 in exchange for Adam Hyzdu. Neal was originally traded from the Marlins to the Padres when he could not become accustomed to Major League pitching. Since 1999, Neal has a 2.30 ERA in more than 250 minor league innings, so the potential for a dominant reliever is there.

    Siding with a veteran arm rather than Neal for the last reliever spot, Epstein re-acquired southpaw submarine pitcher Mike Myers this week. In Cardinals camp this spring, the leftie killer cost the Red Sox two minor league players: Carlos De La Cruz and Kevin Ool. Cruz showed a weak bat in short-season ball, so his name may as well be omitted. Similarly, Ool's struggles as a LOOGY in the Sally League indicate cash may have been the better route for the Cardinals.

    Finally, I should mention that the Red Sox acquired both Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson from the Rockies for Kim. Johnson found himself on the free agent market within hours of the deal, meaning Narveson was the key to the deal. Peter Gammons had reported the Red Sox turned down a trade that would have involved Jason Young, instead choosing the left-handed Narveson.

    Not blessed with fantastic stuff, Narveson has a career of good minor league numbers. In five seasons since the Cardinals made him a second-round pick, Narveson has more than 500 innings with a 3.32 ERA. Good peripheral numbers include a H/9 under nine, a HR/9 under one, and a K/9 of 7.75. The southpaw will move up to the International League this year, but is still four or five back on the organizational depth chart.

    This is not a big loss for the Rockies, since they did not have him before trading Larry Walker last season. Instead they land Kim, who will give the team an option in middle relief. Chin-Hui Tsao, who was earlier designated as a closer, will begin the season on the DL, forcing Clint Hurdle to consider different ninth inning options. If Tsao's stint on the DL is longer than expected, and Kim flourishes in Coors, expect him to be closing in the NL West again soon. They also lose Charles Johnson, a sunk cost of their own.

    As for Johnson, it appears the former All-Star will cap a very busy Spring Training for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Chuck Lamar, who went into Spring Training not giving Lou Piniella a large bench, has spent the month of March building considerable depth. This began when the club signed speedster Alex Sanchez following Danny Bautista's decision to retire. It now appears Sanchez will start the year in centerfield, likely batting second until Rocco Baldelli returns.

    Bautista also left an open spot in right field, and though the Devil Rays were not willing to give Matt Diaz or Jonny Gomes a chance, they did claim Mike Restovich off waivers on Thursday. While the former two are just as talented as Restovich, all three would be better options for Tampa than trotting Aubrey Huff or Eduardo Perez out there. Restovich has an OPS better than .800 in more than 100 big league at-bats, and should be given every chance to succeed in Tropicana Field.

    Tampa's camp also willed Robbie Alomar into retiring, giving Jorge Cantu the everyday job he deserved and opening a utility infielder spot. Rather than give veteran Shane Halter the spot, Chuck Lamar dealt Jorge Sosa to the Braves for Nick Green on Thursday. Sosa was not going to make the team, and Nick Green impressed Brave management during Marcus Giles' injury last year. He won't be a world beater by any means -- Jorge Cantu should hardly lose any at-bats -- but there are far worse utility infielders out there.

    As a quick break from the Devil Ray acquisitions, let me compliment John Scheurholz on another good move. Sosa has a lot of upside in my opinion, and could be the Juan Cruz of 2005 under Leo Mazzone. His strikeout numbers are very high, and with a bit of improved control, he'll be a key to the weakened Brave bullpen.

    To return to the Devil Rays, finally, there is Johnson. Toby Hall is still supposed to be the starter, though I expect the two to split duties behind the plate during the year. It is amazing to me while the contending-hopeful Seattle Mariners have a bench of Dan Wilson, Scott Spiezio, Willie Bloomquist and Abraham Nunez, the Devil Rays will pinch-hit with Johnson, Perez, Green and Josh Phelps.

    Speaking of Nunez, he is the newest Mariner after the club claimed him off waivers from the Royals. Seattle was split between Greg Dobbs and Ramon Santiago for their final lineup choice, though neither really fulfilled the lack of outfield depth problem. Dave Cameron is not too excited by the move, given Bautista's lack of substantial offensive success. Bill Bavasi had the chance at numerous better options over the last six months, but Shin-Soo Choo will make Nunez' stay a short one.

    Abraham leaves Kansas City after losing the right field job that Allard Baird all but handed him. The club has been impressed by minor league veteran Emil Brown all spring, and gave the guy a job despite his 400-plus at-bats with a sub-600 OPS. This bad decision is alright given their choice of Calvin Pickering over Ken Harvey, which should have been a lay-up.

    Another lay-up in KC is keeping Andy Sisco, the big southpaw they were lucky enough to steal in the Rule 5 draft. Sisco impressed the team while throwing three hitless innings in his spring debut, guaranteeing him spot an April job. A recent injury made it look like he would begin the season on the DL, but Rotoworld reports that Sisco will start on the 25-man roster anyways.

    The other Cub chosen in the Rule 5, Luke Hagerty, was returned this week from the Florida Marlins. A Spring Training injury limited the exposure he was hoping to get, and instead he's headed to one of the Cubs minor league destinations. Hagerty has tons of potential, but has been hurt with an arm injury since leaving Ball State University.

    Florida's other team, the aforementioned Devil Rays, returned first overall Angel Garcia to the Minnesota Twins. Garcia's ERA ended in the double-digits this spring, assuring Minnesota he would be returned. Conversely, the Twins gave back their choice, southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith, to the Mariners. I thought Smith might get kept, but it looks like he'll instead be in the Texas League this year.

    Who will be kept, contrary to past belief, is new Dodger reliever D.J. Houlton. His K/BB ratio in the minor leagues is nearly 4/1, his strikeout ratio is nearly 9.00. Never has Houlton met a level he's struggled at, and I think he will succeed in the Majors too. Dodger Stadium is a good place to do it, too.

    So who would have guessed that Adam Stern, chosen by the world champs, would not be returned by Opening Day? I, for one, but it looks like Stern will begin on the Red Sox 25-man roster. By abusing the rules, the Red Sox will then send Stern to Pawtucket on a "rehab assignment," before making a decision on Stern some time in May.

    Two other sabermetrically-minded clubs were forced into interesting decisions with Rule 5 picks. Oakland decided not to keep their choice, Tyler Johnson, when he struggled badly in camp. I saw him throw a good curveball in Arizona, so the Cardinals might not be losing much if they keep him rather than Mike Myers. Los Angeles, besides keeping Houlton, decided not to retain Shane Victorino from the Phillies. Can't be good for a guys confidence when a team from the third largest market in America won't pay $25,000 for ya.

    There is no question that the Rockies are in the right mind to be finding cheap talent in the Rule 5 draft. The problem is, that cheap talent should not be on the mound. Given the ease for hitters to succeed in that park, choosing the likes of Adam Stern and Tony Blanco are in the best interest of the team. Not smart, in my mind, is drafting pitchers. Allowing thousand dollar gambles to throw on the toughest mound in baseball is simply not in the best interest of the Rockies and the likes of Marcos Carvajal and Matt Merricks. The former is going to contend for that closer spot, while Merricks will be on the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury.

    The route the Rockies should have gone, is the one the Washington Nationals took. While their selections were not the best, it looks like both Tony Blanco and Ty Godwin will remain in the organization. Blanco will be kept after hitting well over .300, and even made noise for getting some at-bats at third. The Nationals traded for the rights of Godwin, sending the Blue Jays a short-season player in return.

    Whew, that's a lot of wheeling and dealing. All in a month's work for these front offices, who have prepared us well for what should be one great season.

    *****

    I want to point out the Cubs preview I did for the Hardball Times. Given their five question format, I looked at how much losing Sosa's bat will help, how many runs the Cubs will score, problems in the rotation and the bullpen, and a little wins prediction at the end. As much as I don't approve of the Cliff Bartosh trade from this week, I still got 'em in my playoffs. Hope springs eternal.

    WTNYMarch 29, 2005
    Prospects in the Desert
    By Bryan Smith

    For a prospect, every Spring Training presents another adventure. In one year, they won't be invited to Major League camp. In another, they will for the drills but will see little to zero playing time. The next season, they may hang around for awhile, but then get sent down. And finally, there will be that March when they prepare to head north.

    This March, it appears as though ten of my top sixty prospects will land on the Opening Day roster. Another ten were still in camp a week from Opening Day, though their first destination will be the minor leagues. Twelve more solid prospects have already been sent down but had some game experience in Major League camp before leaving. There are a lot more that rarely pitched or hit, instead just practicing with the big league squad, before getting one-on-one time in minor league camp.

    Today, I want to go through what I've learned, and what I'm thinking after this March. Spring Training numbers have to be taken with huge grains of salt, but to completely disregard them is foolish. As Jon Weisman has mentioned in the past, we need walks and strikeouts for stats to be complete. Nonetheless, MLB TV is blessing enough. My thoughts:

  • I am a little worried about the A's, and might be dropping them down a notch in my final predictions. While I made a comparison between Nick Swisher and Mo Vaughn when returning from Arizona, I didn't realize how well it fit. Both very good college hitters (Mo was better), that dominated AAA at the same age. Very good plate discipline, though Swisher tends to strikeout more. Both struggled the following spring, as Vaughn hit .235 with one homer in 81 at-bats and Swisher is at .242 with zero homers in just shy of sixty. Mo was bad until about August that season, and struggled with his swing, as Swisher has as well. Call me neurotic, but I would advise against choosing him for Rookie of the Year and drafting him in fantasy leagues. His career potential is still sky-high though, and I would not drop him in my prospect rankings.

  • Another Oakland rookie worth worrying about is Dan Meyer, who has generated concern from statheads and scouts alike. The combination of an 8.15 ERA, 26 hits in 17.2 innings and just seven strikeouts are frightening numbers. This is not a guy that has a pitch he can lean on, but instead relies on control and changing speeds. I would like to think the desert is to blame for problems reported with his breaking ball and that he will still make 25 starts this year. But with Joe Blanton, Dan Haren and Kirk Saarloos all pitching well, a year of trying to find himself again might just be what the doctor ordered.

  • It's funny in a spring where Scott Kazmir (1.42 ERA) and Jeff Francis (2.25) have pitched fantastically that Brandon McCarthy and Gavin Floyd have stolen the show. Seriously, even Felix Hernandez has not received the publicity that McCarthy has, it seems. A recent bad start puts the Chicago right-hander's ERA at 3.79, but his 14 strikeouts and three walks are more indicative of his performance. Floyd also suffers from bloated ERA (6.30) syndrome, but has been complimented from Peter Gammons. His eleven walks and four home runs are a bit concerning, but he should be in the Philadelphia rotation to stay in a week. And soon, both of these curveballs will be known as two of the best in the league.

  • Milwaukee, so dependent on the development of five young prospects, has witnessed a mixed bag. Prince Fielder was dynamite before letting his average fade to .289, likewise with Rickie Weeks' .275. But Jose Capellan was disastrous, with a 9.69 ERA, 22 hits in 13 innings, and complaints of being a one-pitch reliever. I'm starting to wonder if I should stop thinking Bartolo Colon when I watch him, and instead think Armando Benitez. Time will tell, but the relief experiment is surely not far away.

  • Besides Swisher, you have to love the hitting out West. Casey Kotchman is hitting .382, though his lack of power will probably force him to start the year in Salt Lake. Ian Kinsler will begin in AAA too, but after nine extra-base hits in fourteen at-bats, Alfonso Soriano's exit from the organization could be on the horizon. For those of you scoring at home, Kinsler is for real. So is Jeremy Reed, who is trying to find the middle ground between his insane 2003 season and the modest 2004 campaign. He has succeeded, with a .344 average, six extra-base hits, and locking in the security of a full-time job.

  • Can you believe the treatment that Grady Sizemore, B.J. Upton and Scott Hairston have received? Sizemore will have to rent an apartment in Buffalo because Juan Gonzalez restrained himself from injury this month. Upton will head to North Carolina for no apparent reason, other than allowing Alex Gonzalez to become the veteran leader. Hairston's demotion makes a little more sense, but I still believe he would give the team far more everyday production than Craig Counsell.

  • Kansas City should be pleased with the spring, despite Zack Greinke's struggles. Denny Bautista has struck out 15 in 14.2, and locked up a starting spot. Mark Teahen's .358 average and propensity for doubles could make him the 2005 Lyle Overbay. Sure this town will be witnessing a slow rebuilding process, but it sure is nice to see a few success stories now and again.

  • Ignore the performances of Kyle Davies, Angel Guzman and J.D. Durbin. Instead, credit those to sample size. I think Davies and Guzman could both be huge for their organizations this year, as both clubs have plenty of injury concerns in the rotation. Durbin was shown up by Scott Baker this spring, but remains the better prospect. Ranking him above Jesse Crain is an admitted mistake, but I think that Durbin is still a prospect to be watched.

  • Other than Baker, the big non-ranked performances of the spring came from Russ Martin, Huston Street and Tony Giarratano. Has anyone realized the latter has produced 40 good at-bats this spring? Street is the talk of the Internet, and will inherit the closer job in short order. Martin was shown up by Jason Repko, but proved that Dioner Navarro is hardly guaranteed the 2006 job behind the dish.

    Finally, I think now is a good time to look at how my rankings have revised in the last two months or so. Below, the top ten hitting and pitching prospects in baseball.

    Hitting: Delmon Young, Andy Marte, Prince Fielder, Ian Stewart, Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman, Joel Guzman, Jeff Francoeur, Lastings Milledge, Rickie Weeks.

    Pitching: Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, Jeff Francis, Jeff Niemann, Brandon McCarthy, Gavin Floyd, Yusmeiro Petit, Joe Blanton.

    Amazing the difference a couple months and some preseason games can make. Here's to hoping for a Grady Sizemore sighting in Jacobs Field, a B.J. Upton home run in Tropicana, and a Felix Hernandez slider. Baseball is almost back my friends, and I for one can't hardly wait.

  • WTNYMarch 22, 2005
    Mr. Smith Goes to Arizona 2
    By Bryan Smith

    When we left off yesterday, my father and I were leaving Hi Corbett Field in Tucson. Our trip was half over, with six teams and three stadiums out of the way.

    Following the Rockies game that closed yesterday's entry, we made the ten minute venture to the other stadium in Tucson. It did not take long to realize why there are only ten night games scheduled in the Cactus League: it gets pretty cold. With tempertures in the forties after a day of seventy-plus, it felt more like an April game in Wrigley than an exhibition in the desert.

    Game Four: Rangers at Diamondbacks- Tucson, Arizona

    Of the stadiums we visited, Tucson Electric Park was the most impressive. Given that it is used during the year as a Pacific Coast League stadium, this did not surprise me.

    When we first sat in the seats, I noted to my Dad just how similar the park was to Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Beautiful outfield area, though the highway is just visible in the distance. Concourse above all of the seats, with limited food options. The stadium is also said to have huge problems with the number of beer vendors, as just two were working the whole stadium on this night.

    What I found odd about the stadium was that Texas fans seemed to outnumber Diamondback supporters. Still, the stadium was most loud when the announcer introduced Craig Counsell. This was quite annoying to me, and led me on to ramble to my father about America's obsession with the likes of Counsell, Joe McEwing and Willie Bloomquist. I mean, Bloomquist's career was made by a 12-game September callup!

    When we returned home that night, two of the first stories I read on-line were of McEwing's release and Bloomquist's new venture into catching. And that marks the official Twilight Zone happening of the trip.

    Player Notes

  • This was not a good sign for the Diamondbacks. Assuming that Javier Vazquez gets the Opening Day start, then the game I saw features their likely lineup on the second day of the season:

    1. Craig Counsell
    2. Royce Clayton
    3. Luis Gonzalez
    4. Troy Glaus
    5. Shawn Green
    6. Jose Cruz Jr.
    7. Chad Tracy
    8. Koyie Hill
    9. Russ Ortiz

    After five innings of play, when some of the starters began to get taken out, the score was 9-2 in favor of Texas. This doesn't look so bad -- just another game -- until you realize Rod Barajas was Texas' cleanup hitter for the game. Russ Ortiz is only accountable for three of the runs, but he did look awful in his 3.1 innings of play. He allowed a home run to Ryan Drese, and threw 76 pitches before being removed. Expect the combination of age, leaving Leo Mazzone, and moving to Arizona to make the Russ Ortiz signing look about as good as the Bartolo Colon one did a year ago.

  • The game's most impressive player, in my mind, was undoubtedly Ian Kinsler. Again, I might be a little partial because I have Kinsler about as high as anyone, but he was great. Facing Ortiz and Edgar Gonzalez, he did not expand his strike zone for neither an offspeed pitch nor a fastball. He also showed quite a bit of pop, with this variety of hits: a double that bounced off the wall in center, a foul ball to the deep RF bleachers, a sacrifice line out to right, and a double down the left field line. He was not tested at second, though the numerous easy plays he made were not a problem. After watching him play, there is no question in my mind that in one year's time, Kinsler will be the Texas second baseman.

  • If I came into the game high on Kinsler, I was equally as low on Ryan Drese. Before watching him pitch, Drese would have been one of the first people I thought likely to regress in 2005. After watching him, I'm not so sure that he isn't Orel Hershiser's best success yet. He was blowing fastballs past the heart of the Arizona lineup, striking out the side in the second (Glaus, Green, Cruz). Only twice in his four innings of a work did a ball get out of the infield before bouncing. He wore considerably as the game went on, allowing both runs in his final frame. I wondered in my notebook if this was something that happened often, and it looks like the data suppports my hypothesis. In his first 45 pitches last year, batters hit .265 with a .369 slugging and 19 walks in 377 at-bats. Everything after number 45, however, they hit .302/.443 with 39 walks in 440 at-bats. Drese is succeeding as a starter, but if that falls apart down the road, a move to relief might be the best career move. Or to hitting, man he took some good cuts.

    Quick Hits:
    - Brandon Lyon came into the game for the seventh and eighth innings, and he looked fantastic. Seeing as though Jose Cruz Jr. and Shane Nance are the only things left from the Curt Schilling trade, it is likely important to management for Lyon to have a good year. In his two innings, Lyon struck out one and forced four ground outs and one infield pop fly. At print, Lyon has allowed one run in seven innings this March, allowing three hits, no walks, and striking out nine.
    - Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin both came into the game in the sixth inning, both making contact on the first pitches they saw. Jackson singled to left, while Quentin lined to right. Both look like goood ballplayers from what little I saw, and Jackson was playing 1B, shedding some light on what we'll be seeing from him in 2006. Again, it is really important that Troy Glaus and Luis Gonzalez stay healthy the next few years.
    - Speaking of players that have made careers out of sample sizes, Marshall McDougall's arrival into camps each year could possibly be attributed to one game. In college, McDougall hit six home runs in a game, building a career for himself. I think if he picks up another few positions he could be a good bench player, given his small bit of pop and good plate discipline.

    Game Five: Cubs at Athletics- Phoenix, Arizona

    If you like minor league baseball, this is the park for you. I didn't know quite what to expect when we ventured to Arizona, whether there would be promotions in between innings, or a more serious, Major League-type environment. While I found the latter to be true, such was not the case at Phoenix Municipal Stadium.

    There were races on foot and in go karts. There was a girl trying to throw bean bags in a bucket for gift certificates. There were t-shirt giveaways on a seemingly constant basis. Looking on the field, I expected to see Lorenzo Barcelo, not Greg Maddux.

    But from what we were told, Maddux was the main draw that day. Cub fans travel, let me tell you, and they had gone south from Mesa for this game. The stadium was at a full capacity 9,361 for the game, and trying to find brokers outside the gates was impossible. Imagine that, a Cub sell-out.

    Player Notes

  • First of all, as a Cubs fan, I reserve the right to be overly critical of them. Given this right, I was very underwhelmed by what I saw from my club. Corey Patterson, ya know that guy who Dusty wants to bad leadoff, was off his game. In the first inning he grounded into a double play on the first pitch he saw (shocking), and had two bad-looking strikeouts before getting removed from the game. Derrek Lee also looks like he will continue his streak of poor Aprils, as he struck out in two of his three at-bats. With Sosa gone there is very little margin for error with this offense, and waiting until June for the bats to warm up is not going to cut it. Especially given the pitching injuries.

  • I realize that after criticizing Barry Zito only to read ESPN sing his praises doesn't do a lot for my credibility, but on the opposite end, Rich Harden looked great in this game. His curve was on, and the main reason for his six strikeouts. He needed only 75 pitches in five innings, even given his struggles in a five-hit third inning. His fastball is pretty hittable, but if he hits his spots to set up the breaking ball, he will succeed. The game featured Greg Maddux and Harden, both of whom look tiny on the mound. Both are listed over six-feet tall, and again, there is no way this is true. This is hardly a negative for Harden, who I think could be great, just an observation.

    Quick Hits:
    - Keiichi Yabu followed Harden, and was very impressive in my opinion. His overhand curve is a nice weapon, and he looked intelligent on the mound. He allowed just one unearned run in three innings of work, and while I'm not sure the rotation is a good idea, he should be one good middle reliever.
    - Nick Swisher made what many will call the play of the day, a diving catch in left field. The play needed a dive because of Swisher's poor break on the ball, which was awful. I think he will underwhelm A's fans in the outfield, while outdoing predictions at the plate. Oh and by the way, Keith Ginter made another error in this game. Yikes.
    - Not a lot of prospect watching, though I can say that Daric Barton replaced Durazo at first late in the game. Barton has huge legs, and while small, looks very muscular. His stance is an open one, and he looks like he could generate some big-time power. No longer will Barton be playing behind the plate, which only goes to further prove his Carlos Delgado similarities.
    - The highlight of the game for me was not what was on the field, but watching the row of Jim Hendry, Billy Beane, David Forst and Gary Hughes communicate throughout the game. While I'm sure my partner would have lept into the conversation critiquing each of them, I stayed back and hoped Hendry would nab Octavio Dotel.


    Game Six: Cubs at White Sox- Tucson, Arizona

    This was our repeat stadium, more because of the competitors than wanting to come back. My Dad is a White Sox fan, and despite trying to raise me as one, lost me at a young age. Both of us regressed to the mean a bit, rooting for both with an emphasis towards one. But when it comes to Cubs v. Sox, it's an all-out war.

    While the Cubs and A's game was jam-packed, I was surprised to see a lot of empty seats when the game began at 1:05. Also surprising was the small amount of heckling that took place, far less than what the first inning of the regular season Interleague game would have.

    Player Notes

  • I was pleased when this game started to hear Angel Guzman would be pitching for the Cubs. I have serious concerns about all the candidates that have been mentioned to serve as starters while Wood and Prior are hurt, except Guzman. Hopefully a middle ground between using Angel and not abusing him will be found. Anyway, despite not having a strong build at all, Guzman has enormously long legs for a pitcher. His fastball was not the power sinker I had heard, as he both didn't cause grounders nor keep the ball low in the zone. He certainly favors the pitch, throwing seven in his first eight pitches. I was most impressed by Guzman's curve, which he showed control of throughout the game. He looks like the rare talent that can succeed without a great third pitch, as his change was absent for most of the game. Anyway, I hope he stays a Cub, because there is no question he has a future on the mound.

  • Going from a career rising to one setting, Guzman's opposing starter was no other than Orlando Hernandez. With the rotation struggling this spring, it will come as no good news to White Sox fans to hear El Duque looked pretty bad. His curve was left up in the zone a lot, and when Cub hitters waited for the pitch to reach the plate, they likely smacked it for a hit. I was surprised to see that his fastball was enough; his ability to change speeds and arm angles is enough, I guess. Pitching coach waiting to happen.

  • We had read reports going into the game about how Carl Everett had shed 30 pounds over the winter in preparation for a big year. Consider it true, as Everett looked as good in uniform as I have seen him in a long time. He also was very in tune at the plate, doubling twice and walking once before being removed after five innings. Given his good condition and U.S. Cellular Field, Everett might not be a bad gamble in the late innings of fantasy drafts this year. I know I'm buying.

    Quick Hits:
    - Despite my disgust for the Cubs lineup, I liked what I saw from Jerry Hairston and Aramis Ramirez. There is no reason Hairston and Dubois shouldn't be manning the corners for this team, though Hairston is definitely a work in progress in the outfield. At the plate, however, he is far better a leadoff hitter than Corey Patterson. As for Aramis, he looks ready to play, and crushed doubles in both Cub games we saw. This might be Aramis' best year yet, which would likely cost the Cubs about $15 million or so more than signing him to an extension now would.
    - Jon Garland...yuk. He pitched the final four innings after Hernandez, and against some pretty bad hitters, didn't look very good. I'm convinced that he is always going to be a league average pitcher, which makes the Cubs trading him for Matt Karchner an easier pill to swallow. Brandon McCarthy, while maybe not taking Mark Buerhle's spot after all, could replace Garland by summer.
    - The White Sox lineup could be dangerous. Tadahito Iguchi looks like a very smart hitter that isn't going to hurt the team at all. Aaron Rowand looks quite good, despite my previous predictions of a discouraging year for him. A.J. Pierzynski and Juan Uribe are going to be quite good at the back end of the lineup. The only "hole" in my mind is going to be Jermaine Dye. Has anyone ever looked like such a star and been so average? It's frustrating just watching him.

    Also frustrating was the return to the midwest, and to weather in the mid-forties. While we can crunch numbers and punch our keyboards as much as we would like, baseball is more than the outcome that happens on the field. It is the experience. The hotdogs, the sounds, the atmosphere. And most of all, the company. I was relieved to find out nothing had changed over the winter, and that it is all still so much fun.

    Wait 'Til Next Year? Bah, I can hardly wait until next week.

  • WTNYMarch 21, 2005
    Mr. Smith Goes to Arizona
    By Bryan Smith

    My father neither worked for a baseball team nor managed a Spring Training game. His managing was confined to a league in which stealing home is as prevalent as third, and the worst player is always thrown in right field.

    When pitching, my delivery was learned from him. My fastball grip was a product of his baseball knowledge, as was my swing. He had grown up in a time with no ESPN and no Internet, yet was just as much a fan as I. He bought me the first pack of baseball cards I had come across, and taught me the statistics on the back. He, not the men on the cards, was my hero.

    Together, we have gone to hundreds of games. We saw the first Comiskey, the second, and the renovated U.S. Cellular Field. We've seen games as far west as the Kingdome, and as far east as Fenway. Games as meaningful as a Cubs playoff game, and as meaningless as an A-ball game in the summer.

    What we hadn't seen - save a few games in Ft. Myers, Florida - was March baseball. It was proposed we do so this year, with schedules that matched for a week trip. Past vacations to Phoenix made us relatively familiar with the state that we would travel across. Four days, five stadiums, six games, ten teams. To echo Mastercard, it was priceless.

    With programs and notebook at my side for each game, I came up with lots of notes on the stadiums and games we attended. Let me reiterate that I am far from a scout, so be sure to take my comments with some salt. Come away with me...

    Game One: Athletics at Mariners- Peoria, Arizona

    First visible from Peoria Sports Complex is an impressive one. Coming off the highway (110 W), you see a very well-built area of Peoria. Surrounding the complex are various impressive restaurants: Cheesecake Factory, P.F. Cheng's and Buca Di Beppo to name a few. There are also a few nice sports bars and a huge movie theatre, giving the area some surprising surrounding life.

    There is no question in my mind that the complex is the best Spring Training facility we saw. Mind you, not the most impressive stadium by any means, but the numerous fields around the stadium give a good instructional feel. Since the Padres and Mariners share the complex, both have buildings around the stadium that serve as an administrative office/clubhouse, and probably split the fields.

    As for the stadium itself, it is as generic as any. Like all of the ballparks, it was constructed to give a Native American feel and also supports the grass seating behind the outfield fences. The park seats 9,000, and on that day drew 8,965. There were more retirees in attendance -- perhaps a telltale of the town -- at this game than the others.

    I would guess that the field favors neither pitchers or hitters, with rather basic dimensions: 340 feet down the lines, 389 in the alleys and 410 to straightaway center. In center there was a huge wall - over which I heard no one has hit - that guards a concession house right behind it.

    Peoria Stadium's most unique nuance is the food. In my notebook I described it as a "carnival concourse" offering everything from turkey sausages to gyros to fried twinkes. The booths were built very colorful and unique, with tents that made me feel I was at the circus. Pluses in the food and surrounding area departments made the first park a positive experience.

    Player Notes

  • Barry Zito was a mess. With seven hitless spring innings coming into the start, he hardly looked to be in midseason form. His curve was a mix between rarely being implemented and seldom finding the strike zone. And his fastball is just not good enough to get by hitters without the threat of his trademark hook. Two walks in the first frame, followed by four baserunners in each of the next two. Blez tells me that this was his problem last year, which isn't good news for an A's team dependent on his regression to Cy Young form.

  • On the other hand, Jamie Moyer looked fantastic. In the first two innings he threw 20 pitches, striking out three. After falling behind 3-1 to Erubiel Durazo, Moyer threw six straight strikes to get out of the inning. The A's looked thrown off by his style, which is pretty unique to Moyer. But I can't help watch Moyer and wonder had he not been in Safeco the last five years, might he be a pitching coach somewhere right now?

  • My dad accused me of coming into the game already sold on Shin-Soo Choo, but I thought he looked fantastic. Big, strong legs and a sweet left-handed swing. After being fooled by a curve against Zito on his first pitch, Choo stayed back well and drove the next curve up the middle. He later took an Octavio Dotel fastball to right. A poor defensive play coupled with his ugly Futures Game performance tells me Safeco centerfield will be too much. He'll hit enough for left, though.

  • Awful day for Keith Ginter. Two strikeouts, and some terrible defense up the middle. I've always liked him, but I wonder if the Bellhorn/Giles comparisons are far too much. He is slow to his right and botched a play that went down as a hit. Blez also tells me Mark Ellis has become the favorite for the second base job. Ginter is a swallowable infielder on a bad team but a bench player on a good one.

    Quick Hits:
    - Poor day for the A's defense overall. Eric Byrnes made a horrid throw to third from right, and Eric Chavez missed second on a would-be double play. Adrian Beltre could very well be the league's best defensive 3B.
    - Bobby Crosby is huge, with some of the longest legs I've seen for a shortstop. He's very fluid in the field, and showed a good eye with a powerful swing. Crosby and Khalil Greene are two of my favorites.
    - Also impressing me was Miguel Olivo and Justin Leone. Olivo should have a good season, and Seattle fans will like that he does everything (even run) pretty solidly. Justin Leone sure deserves a shot somewhere, I would think he could be far more productive in KC than Crhis Truby.
    - I was underwhelmed by Jose Lopez, who I later read might become the Mariners starting shortstop. He struggled against offspeed pitches, which validated by disliking of him in the past.
    - "Watching him hurts my shoulder." That's what my Dad said of Huston Street's 5/8 delivery, though his pitches were impressive. Seeing as though Billy Beane compared him to Dennis Eckersley while we were flying back, I wouldn't be too concerned. But to one Little League coach, he's a surgery waiting to happen.
    - Looking back at the box score, Nick Swisher's 3/4 day grades very positive. He didn't show any of the power that makes me drool over his future, and his crouched stance seems a mix of Jeff Bagwell and Mo Vaughn. Bags hardly did as well in the minors as Nick, but a smaller Mo could serve as Swish's running comparison.

    Game Two: Brewers at Giants- Scottsdale, Arizona

    Home to the Arizona Fall League Hall of Fame, Scottsdale Stadium was built far more like a professional baseball park than Peoria. The teams had clubhouses, and the field was the only one in sight. Trees formed a nice background beyond the outfield walls.

    Constructed by the same man that designed Camden in Baltimore, Scottsdale was a pitcher's park. The left field wall was 360 feet, and it was 430 to center. Barry Bonds has it the easiest with it only 340 feet down the right field line, but the outfield was very spacious. Given the AFL's propensity to be a hitter's league, this surprised me.

    Unlike Peoria, the food options here were terrible. There are very limited options beyond a hot dog or cheeseburger, neither of which were particularly good. The nuance here was music, which was more targeted for the younger crowd that filled the bleachers.

    We were also lucky enough to show up on the Navy themed day, which included a Navy band, jugglers in the concourse, and most exciting of all, the Parachute team. The "Leapfrogs" presented the colors, diving in as the national anthem was being played. While the anthem tends to get quite bland at Major League stadiums across the country, this colorful touch was refreshing.

    Player Notes

  • The second batter of the game was the one I was most excited to see: Rickie Weeks. At the plate, Weeks looks like a smaller version of Gary Sheffield, with a very similar stance. He also has a batting eye like Gary, he walked in his first two at-bats and watched some close pitches go by. Later in the field, he saved Lyle Overbay who missed a ball to his right, and Weeks came all the way over and got it to the pitcher. He's an exciting talent, and should be pushing Spivey off soon.

  • I saw two other members of Milwaukee's "Big Five" that night, both Dave Krynzel and J.J. Hardy. Krynzel did nothing noteworthy, though I liked what I saw from his swing and arm. I've drawn criticism for my dislike for J.J. Hardy in the past, and I'll admit that Royce Clayton comparisons might be too much. His swing proved to me that twenty home run seasons are probably too much, but he looks like he makes tons of contact, runs well and has a great arm. I underrated him.

  • Chris Capuano had a Jekyll and Hyde game. In the first inning, he walked three straight hitters and had thrown twenty-seven pitches after four batters. His stuff looked mediocre, and his curve was flat. But then something turned on, and Capuano started hitting his spots and showing some good breaking stuff. From that point on he pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and striking out six against three walks.

  • The surprising stars of the game were Brian Dallimore and Chad Moeller. Dallimore is fighting for a utility spot, and with this game should have won it. He had a double in the second that would have been a home run in Pac Bell, and then fought off a tough pitch for a single in the fourth. Later, he saved a single in the field making a great play against Russ Branyan. Moeller homered, walked and threw out a batter all before the end of the fifth.

    Quick Hits:
    - Jason Schmidt looked pretty flawless in his four innings, striking out seven. I've already decided he's my second-round draft choice in fantasy baseball this year, and some would argue he might as well be given the NL Cy Young already.
    - I've talked about the Brew Big Five a lot here, but have neglected numbers six through eight: Corey Hart, Nelson Cruz, Ben Hendrickson. I saw the first two of those playing the outfield corners, and was pretty underwhelmed. In my opinion, Melvin would be best off to hope Cruz has a big year at AAA, and use him in a trade when the opportunity arises.
    - One of my predictions for 2005: bad things for Lyle Overbay. I was bummed that he made the trip to Scottsdale and not Prince Fielder, who is primed for a big year. Overbay might hit a flat .280, but even that I would question. Selling before his value is too low might be the best philosophy here.

    Game Three: Angels at Rockies- Tuscon, Arizona

    With our hotel in Phoenix, our farthest drive was to Tuscon, nearly two hours away. The town has two stadiums, Hi Corbett Field and Tuscon Electric Park. After the Cleveland Indians spent Spring Training in the former for tons of years, the Rockies took over in Hi Corbett recently.

    The stadium was built in the 1930s, and you can tell. Fans were complaining about the stadium around me, and I overheard that a replacement might soon be built. The stadium's best feature is free parking, as they share a complex with a golfing course, zoo, and an elementary school.

    As for the stadium itself, if any of you have ever been to a game in Clinton, Iowa, you will understand what it looked like. The field has a lower level that goes only five rows back, with an elevated upper level behind it. It seats only about 6,000 people, and the attendance of 4,633 was the worst of the trip.

    Don't let me complain too much, the vendors were plentiful and friendly. The food was good, with options such as a foot-long brat and some ultimate nachos that will knock your socks off. With a state containing such a large Hispanic base, it was no surprise to see the Mexican food options were so good in each park. A good surprise, mind you.

    Player Notes

  • After getting in our seats, I noticed Bartolo Colon was playing long toss in the outfield. What I found odd was that he was still throwing within 15 minutes of the game's start. Seemed unusual, because he didn't get a lot of time on the bullpen mound. It still amazes me how easy Colon throws in the mid-90s, but last year and in this game it seems that his fastball has flattened out. Anaheim has one concern, the rotation, and it is essential that Colon finds his old form. I should also say that Colon doubled in the second, struggled in the bottom half of the inning, and was removed after. He's in no shape to be running to second.

  • I was luckily enough to get to see both club's closers in this game, Chin-Hui Tsao for the Rockies and K-Rod for the Angels. Needless to say, both impressed. Tsao continuously threw his fastball, seldom showing his slider that is also a plus pitch. But his fastball was enough, as he blew hitters away consistently. Hitters were late again and again, as there was more than five fouls in his one inning of work. You could say the only way to prevent runs in Coors is to not allow contact, and given that, Tsao might be the stadium's best pitcher yet.

  • One player listed on numerous sites as a good Rule 5 pick prior to the draft was Mike Napoli, a catcher in the Angel system. When Napoli came up, his build and stance immediately reminded me of Aaron Rowand. I mean, to the tee. Reviewing their builds later that night, I found both are listed at 6-1, and their weights are within 5 pounds of one another (200 and 205). As a proud six-footer, I can say there is no way that either player is over six feet, but that both are extremely well built. We'll see if the California League masked Napoli's numbers in the Texas League, but I do think there could be a future for him.

    Quick Hits:
    - Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar were both extreme slap hitters. Izturis looked like a great defensive player, while Aybar did not so much. Erick immediately reminded me of Luis Castillo, which might not be too far off. But Aybar walks less and doubles a lot more than Castillo, so statistically, it doesn't work out perfectly.
    - Joe Saunders, an Angels former first-round pick, pitched in the game. With our Baseball America Prospect book in hand, my Dad opened to BA's critique of Saunders' curve. The pitch was on when I saw him, and despite a less-than-fantastic effort, I like him. Anaheim has a system full of hitters parks, and Saunders could sneak up as a good prospect.
    - Francisco Rodriguez threw a ton of curves in the inning he pitched, far more than he threw his fastball. That's about all I have to say about him, other than he grunts extremely loud when he pitches.
    - Two of the people that just missed the Honorable Mention on this site were Howie Kendrick and Jeff Baker. Kendrick was dynamite in the Midwest League last year, and I was impressed with both his lateral movement at second and the pop in his bat. Baker showed a great eye, and I found it interesting that each ball he hit was to right field.

    Tomorrow, I'll be back with the second half of the trip, including two Cubs games, the best stadium yet, and lots of veteran starters.

  • WTNYMarch 18, 2005
    Back to the Future
    By Bryan Smith

    Forward thinking is the reason I love prospect evaluation so much. But I also believe that sometimes it is the art's largest flaw, since seldom do we go back, and learn from past successes and mistakes.

    On Thursday, John Sickels went back to 1997 and looked at his top fifty, giving a sentence on what happened to each player. I found this "Blast from the Past" to be inspriring, and wanted to do something similar. So, I decided to look ten lists back, and go in detail on what I found at the top.

    So, using the BA Top 100 lists, I am able to look at Baseball America's rankings from 1996. I've decided to look at the top eighth of the 100 (13 players), and see how each have done. For each player, I've included a paragraph on their credentials when BA graded them in 1996, and what has happened since them.

    This will prove that just like in baseball, ya win some and ya lose some.

    1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves

    Pre-1996: Few players can boast to have the minor league season that Andruw Jones had in 1995. In his full-season debut at the age of eighteen, Jones flashed every skill in the South Atlantic League. Power? 71 extra-base hits. Speed? 56 steals. Patience? 70 walks. Defense? Plus-plus as the scouts say. All of it was there, and you could argue the only flaw was his contact skills. Between a .277 average and 122 strikeouts, Jones clearly had something to work on. I mean, something had to get pointed out. His ranking atop this list can hardly be argued, few five-tool talents like his ever come around.

    Post-1996: The problem is, not all five tools developed. Andruw Jones is a fantastic Major League player and again, worthy of a top ranking, but it would be a lie to say he met every expectation he was given. Jones would later become known as lazy and a problem to coach, and some weight gain would make stolen bases a non-factor in his game by 24. Batting average has been a problem too, as only once has Jones topped .280 in the category. But given all that, Jones is one of the best defensive outfielders ever, and has 250 home runs before his twenty-eighth birthday. Only nine players have done that in history, and it would be a shame if all nine don't end up in the Hall of Fame (Juan Gone the only question mark). Andruw is on the bubble right now, and has been one fun player to watch grow up since those three playoff homers in 1996.

    2. Paul Wilson, rhp, Mets

    Pre-1996: Chosen first in the 1994 draft out of Florida State University, Wilson was a fantastic college pitcher. Before discussing his minor league credentials, I'll defer to FSU's Hall of Fame biographies (he was inducted in 2000):

    Paul Wilson was one of the most dominating pitchers in Seminole baseball history. His blazing fastball and command of the game from the mound made him one of college baseball's most intimidating pitchers. Over his three year career he led Florida State to some of its greatest wins and capped his career with his selection as the first pick of the 1994 Major League Baseball Draft.

    Wilson was selected to the Baseball America and National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association All-American teams, in addition to being tagged All-ACC following an outstanding junior season in 1994. The Orlando native capped his FSU career by being named one of nine finalists for the Golden Spikes Award, presented annually to the top amateur baseball player in the country. Wilson led the 1994 Seminole pitching staff to the College World Series with a 13-5 record and 2.08 ERA in 143.0 innings pitched. He struck out 161 batters while walking just 32. During his three year career (1992-94), Wilson compiled a 27-11 record with a 2.77 ERA. Along the way he struck out 299 in 304.2 innings of work. Wilson established himself as the ace of the 1993 Team USA pitching staff, starting in nine games.

    Wilson made more Florida State history by becoming the highest Seminole ever chosen in any professional sport draft, when the righthander was named the first overall pick in the 1994 draft by the New York Mets.

    After just 11 starts following his signing in 1994, Wilson torched through AA and AAA the next season. Pitching in the Eastern League, Wilson had a 2.17 ERA, 6.66 H/9, 9.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 16 starts. His numbers were strong in ten AAA starts, with a 2.85 ERA and strong peripherals. With Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen, Wilson made up one of the top trio of organizational starters in recent memory. And Paul was top dog.

    Post-1996: Nowadays Izzy can claim to be the best of the group, but it is hardly something to brag about. Pulsipher basically flamed out with injuries, and a move to the bullpen saved Isringhausen's career and widened his checkbook. As for Wilson, he would struggle as a rookie in 1996, his only time pitching as a Met. The near-350 innings that Wilson threw in '95 and '96 caught up with him, and arm injuries derailed his career until a Tampa rebirth in 2000. His ERA has dropped in each of his five full seasons, culminating with a solid 4.36 while pitching atop the Cincinnati rotation last season. But claiming to be the 2004 Reds ace is about as impressive as being the best pitcher of the three great Met pitching prospects. Oh, and will someone tell Rich that not all can't-miss college pitchers are Mark Prior?

    3. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees

    Pre-1996: Signed at 16 in 1990, the Yankees were determined to handle Rivera like a baby in the early 90s. He would spend 1991 in the Dominican Summer League, 1992 in the GCL, and '93 in the New York-Penn League. His full season debut came the following season, when Rivera seemed to put things together. His 33 homers and 48 walks catapulted him to second on the 1995 BA list, despite 163 strikeouts. Ruben continued to impress in '95, both hitting 24 homers and stealing 24 bases. Nagging injuries and contact problems were ignored, as Rivera's combination of power, speed and patience pushed away any concerns.

    Post-1996: Hindsight is 20-20. Those strikeouts, those never-high-enough batting averages, that make-up concern all should have sent red flags. In 1996, Rivera had a .711 OPS in the International League, his first full season of health. It would also prove to be his last. Traded to the Padres in April of 1997, Ruben battled with injuries all of that season. San Diego kept trying to turn him into a great baseball player, but from 1998-2000, he hit just .203 in 1006 at-bats. Cut from San Diego then, Ruben has been around the Majors a lot since then. Rivera will likely most end up being known for the theft of the 1992 Spring Training, when he stole of out his teammates lockers so he could later profit off the memorabilia.

    4. Darin Erstad, of, Angels

    Pre-1996: Given the first choice in the 1995 draft, the Anaheim Angels had no choice but to choose the nation's best hitter: Darin Erstad. A good fielding centerfielder with power? From Nebraska's All-American web page:

    Darin Erstad enjoyed a stellar 1995 season on his way to consensus first-team All-America honors. He hit .410 with 19 homers and 79 RBI, while setting single-season records in extra-base hits (46) and total bases (194). One of the best hitters in school history, Erstad finished his three-year career as a top-five performer in eight categories and is NU's all-time hits leader with 261. The first overall pick in the 1995 MLB Draft by the Anaheim Angels, Erstad has played in the majors for five seasons and is a two-time AL All-Star.

    It doesn't take a genius to figure out a great college hitter in an A-ball hitters' league is going to yield big results. Erstad proved that after signing in 1995, hitting .363/.398/.493 in the California League. That coupled with his college career was proof enough for Baseball America. Can't say I can blame them.

    Post-1996: That still rings true. Erstad has taken a lot of hits from the sabermetric crowd, but his first overall selection has been validated. He's entering his tenth season in an Angel uniform, and will surely surpass 1,500 hits before his too-big contract expires. Still, his one-year peak was really high, and in most seasons he has been valuable. His defense and leadership are both highly thought of, and he still makes consistent contact. To be somewhat valuable for years in the future, Darin will need more consistent plate discipline, and that high average. Those two will make him a solid top-of-the-order hitter, but the difference between a .308 and .409 on-base percentage is quite large. Oh, and if his career slide wasn't enough, Alex Gordon is currently sixty hits from taking his NU hits record away.

    5. Alan Benes, rhp, Cardinals

    Pre-1996: His brother was the first overall choice in the draft once, and with Alan going sixteenth, the bloodlines were thought to be strong. Both out of small Midwest schools had good overhand curveballs and some nice velocity. In 1994, Benes moved through four levels, throwing more than 200 innings that year. His 184 strikeouts to just 52 walks landed him fourteenth on the BA top 100. Pitching only 72 innings in 1995, Benes looked very good in 11 AAA starts, and had some bad luck in a 16 inning debut. Thought to be over the injury that started him on the DL in '95, BA had little concerns about the rightie that had yet to be thoroughly challenged.

    Post-1996: Benes would go on to throw more than 350 innings between 1996 and 1997, looking like an ace atop the St. Louis rotation. He had developed some moderate control problems, but other than that, was on the verge of becoming one of the league's premier starters. But all those innings caught up with his right arm, and Benes missed all of 1998 and all but 17 innings of 1999. Since 2000 he has been up and down between AAA, never more than the 46 innings he pitched in the Cardinal bullpen in 2000. His WHIP has never been under 1.50 in AAA, and is a poor starter there, so his career is likely over. File Alan somewhere in the "What Coulda Been" folder, because if the Cardinals hadn't pushed so hard, they might still have him as an ace.

    6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees

    Pre-1996: Magically, by the touch of the baseball gods, Derek Jeter fell to the sixth spot in the 1992 draft. Picked ahead of him: Chad Mottola to the Cincinnati Reds. Jeter looked abysmal in the GCL after signing, showing no particular skill to be proud of. He was solid in his first full season in 1993, hitting .295 but showing no traces of power. He would take off the next season, flying through three levels with a .344 average and 58 walks. Seldom did the shortstop with huge error totals strikeout, but he never really hit extra-base hits either. In 1995 the Yanks decided to have him spend the entire season in Columbus, and it would be there that he would forever lock up the Yankee shortstop position. With a .317 average, 20 steals, more walks than strikeouts and 27 doubles, Jeter made himself a millionaire.

    Post-1996: Four years into the Majors, he had 63 home runs. Known across the world as the heart and soul of the Yankees, there isn't a lot to say that hasn't already been said about Derek Jeter. Through 30 years of age, the Yankee captain has 1,734 hits, thirty-eighth all-time at that point, and 10 more than Pete Rose had at 30. Jeter has started to walk a lot less the last two seasons, making him a good-but-not great leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, no one told Joe Torre that he could have been amazing in that spot for so many years. There was no way to put Jeter any higher than this when BA did so in 1996, but Jeter is a sure-fire, first ballot Hall of Famer. Let's just hope they don't talk about his great defense on his plaque.

    7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers

    Pre-1996: Unlike Riben Rivera, Karim Garcia's treatment was quite agressive after signing just after being able to drive. Signed out of Mexico, Garcia made his debut in 1993 as a 17-year-old in the California League. Obviously there were struggles, but a .247 ISO at 17 is really good. In 1994, Garcia was sent to the pitcher's park at Vero Beach, but was unfazed. He hit .265/.326/.511, smacking 59 extra-base hits but walking just 37 times. Moved to the PCL the next year, Garcia had a .915 OPS in 1995. He always walked around 37-38 times and struck out in the 100-110 area, but his batting average went up in 1995. With big power, a big arm and now an average, it looked like a career was next.

    Post-1996: Didn't happen. For Karim, a career has still not happened. Los Angeles kept him in AAA the next two years, despite dominating numbers in Albuquerque. Arizona acquired him in 1998, and in my first Internet fantasy league experience, I drafted him. His numbers? .222/.260/.381. His career numbers have improved a bit since then, but his OPS of .703 is aided by 197 good at-bats in Cleveland in 2002. Those fifty games probably extended his career another 3-5 years, but it shouldn't take much longer for teams to realize he just isn't the option. Karim will always have a little big of power and a good outfield arm, but the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Orioles, Yankees, Indians and Mets will all probably tell you that's not enough.

    8. Livan Hernandez, rhp, Marlins

    Pre-1996: Not only armed with a pitcher's body and some good velocity, Livan Hernandez had a story. He arrived in America on a small boat with a few other Cubans, and his Caribbean legacy was enough to secure this ranking. Like most players out of Cuba, there were scouts promising he would be the best, with people pointing to how he had beaten the U.S. team once.

    Post-1996: But unlike most Cubans, Livan has turned out well. Both he and El Duque have been questioned numerous times about their listed ages, and neither are saying whether it is the truth or not. No matter what his age is, I think it's safe to say that Hernandez has become the best MLB Cuban pitcher ever, with over 1,700 career innings of 4.13 ERA ball. His arm is as durable as they come, and with Montreal/Washington has become resurrected. He has been one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball each of the last two years, and fans in Washington should love him. His career will be best known for his pitching in the 1997 playoffs at 22, but that shouldn't hide the fact that in the last 30 year only 18 pitchers have had more innings through 29.

    9. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos

    Pre-1996: A lot had been said about Guerrero before 1995, when he was in short-season ball, but it was that season in which people started to know he was for real. In the Sally League that season, Guerrero hit .333 despite striking out just 45 times in 421 at-bats. He didn't walk much either, but hit 47 extra-base hits and showed that trademark huge arm. A real five tool player, Guerrero's skill set was complete then.

    Post-1996: Vlad would debut the next season and become a regular in 1997, hitting the Majors in stride. He has yet to let up, hitting 273 homers and smacking 1,421 hits in nine years. Through the age of 28, those rank tenth and thirty-seventh, respectively. Basically, if you were starting a Major League team and didn't pick Vlad in one of the top three spots, you'd be an idiot. His arm and bat are fantastic, and the comparisons to Roberto Clemente are fair. In fact, Vlad might be better.

    10. Ben Davis, c, Padres

    Pre-1996: At least Darin Erstad had a track record. If Baseball America draws any consistent criticism, it is that they overrate people who have been drafted the June prior to ranking. Davis was chosen second after Erstad in 1995, and the Padres were happy to have him. He managed just under 200 at-bats in the Pioneer League after signing, hitting a modest .279/.341/.426 and drawing positive reports for his defense.

    Post-1996: Looking back, judging by the other players from that top ten (Wood, Helton), it looks like a reach. His minor league career was solid, and the Padres hoped he'd take the job in 1999 or 2000. He didn't, so in 2001 they decided to hand it to him. A year's worth of .694 OPS was enough for Kevin Towers, who then shipped the catcher to Seattle. Working as a back-up to Dan Wilson there for three years, Davis was shipped to Chicago last year. He'll be a back-up again this year, but with his topping the .700 OPS mark just once, you have to wonder why he's constantly secured a job.

    11. Jason Schmidt, rhp Braves

    Pre-1996: Drafted in 1991, Schmidt always had an intriguing but frustrating arm. His BB/9 was in the mid-3.00s from 1993-1995, and after 1995 his K/9 had gone down for three straight years. But his ERA and H/9 were the best of his career in 1995 at AAA, which earned a short stint in Atlanta. The Braves did a very good job of not overusing Schmidt, who threw 120+ innings just once in the minor leagues.

    Post-1996: Big fastballs are good for scouts to see, but Leo Mazzone demands control. Schmidt walked 50 batters in 83.2 innings in Atlanta in 1995-1996, and as a result, was traded to Pittsburgh that year. He improved his control at the cost of some stuff in Pittsburgh, and was a mediocre starter from 1997-1999. Some injuries hit in 2000, and halfway through 2001, Schmidt was traded midseason to San Francisco. His ERA is just 3.02 since coming to San Fran that season, and given his success, I would be shocked to see him go. Schmidt has become the best pitcher in the National League, great control or not.

    12. Matt Drews, rhp, Yankees

    Pre-1996: Chosen thirteenth overall in the 1993 draft, Drews was more than appealing as a 6-8 Floridian flame-thrower. But it was control and not power that was most impressive when the Yanks sent Drew to the NYPL in 1994. A WHIP of just 1.06 was helped by his 1.9 BB/9, though his 6.9 K/9 left room to be desired. The K/9 stayed there the next season, the walks went up and the hits down. He was still a pitcher with good control and a huge frame, and with 15 wins in the FSL, was a great player. Those strikeouts, or lack there of, didn't get a whole lot of notice.

    Post-1996: Yikes. In 1996, the hinges came off. Drews pitched in three levels of the New York organization that year, and walked 72 in 84 innings. To make matters worse, he struck out just 56. The Yanks included him with Ruben Sierra for Cecil Fielder at the trade deadline, leaving him to Detroit to figure out. In 1997 and 1998 his H/9 was over 10.00, his K/9 in the fives, and his control was not particularly good. Out of baseball after the 1998 season.

    13. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies

    Pre-1996: Before 1995, Gibson was considered an athlete full of tools that had yet to put them all together. In the Northwest League in 1994, he struck out 102 times in 284 at-bats. But when reaching Asheville in 1995, Gibson showed some polish. The outfielder his .292 with 32 homers and 31 walks. He left a lot to be desired in the strikeout and walk departments, but again, this was a power-speed guy. Everything gets ignored then.

    Post-1996: Promoted to the Eastern League in 1996, Gibson managed just a .730 OPS. Everything was down across the board, and when that happens, 125 strikeouts and just 30 walks gets noticed a lot easier. After seemingly putting it together, Gibson was never really given a shot, and then gone from baseball after 1999. He played well for Long Island of the Independent League in 2003, and a decent minor league outfielder for the Angels last year. Sadly, that's all the upside his career has at this point.

    *****

    Included in this list are four of the better players in the Majors, three very solid players, one overdeserving catcher, and five "busts." I think we've learned of the BB/K importance in hitters, and Matt Drews has surely taught that strikeouts are essential for pitchers.

    I like to think that had I been doing this list, Jones, Guerrero and Jeter all would have made the top five. I'm sure that's wrong, but it sure is fun to speculate.

    WTNYMarch 15, 2005
    Brew Tasting
    By Bryan Smith

    "In Billy We Trust." Over at Athletics Nation, this is the defining phrase of the site. Across the Internet, Billy Beane is lauded for his talents as a General Manager -- with admirers pointing to the team's performance over the last several years within the constraints of a tight budget.

    For one reason or another, I've never been a diehard fan of Beane's. Maybe the constant praise is to blame or maybe the glorification that was Moneyball. I respect the great work he does annually, but often his praise clouds good work throughout the rest of MLB.

    One of those people -- ever so quietly -- and my choice for the Majors' most underrated GM is Doug Melvin. While Milwaukee has been less than impressive since Melvin took the reigns in October of 2002, I find that to be more telling of the train wreck he inherited than anything else. While Director of Scouting Jake Zduriencik stockpiles talent beneath the surface, Melvin has proven to be both cunning and innovative.

    With the Selig family giving way to Mark Attanasio atop the organization, hope has sprung that the payroll will rise in coming years. If you combine an increased budget with Zduriencik's top-heavy farm system and Melvin's ability to acquire free talent, it is easy to see that the future looks bright in Milwaukee.

    First and foremost atop that list is Melvin, who has had an impressive start in his second GM stint. A look into his two seasons of work provides much of his thinking on how to run an organization:

    1. Scour the waiver wire, minor league free agency, and other organizations for cheap, undervalued talent.

    2. As age old as capitalism: Buy low, sell high.

    3. Use contenders' needs/desires as leverage while trading veterans.

    4. Stockpile youth.

    5. Hire good teachers for organization.

    When rebuilding a franchise, I think it's safe to say those are some good principles to have. With limited pocketbooks comes smaller room for error and Melvin has not proven to be a risktaker. Not yet has he signed a free agent to a deal that pays anything more than $2.35M a year, and only once has he inked a multi-year contract with a free agent. There will be time for that, but seeing limited upside, Melvin knew that time was not 2003-2005.

    Instead, Melvin spent time looking at all inexpensive options, looking to find those diamonds in the rough. He has succeeded in doing so, as I account 64 Win Shares in 2003 and 78 in 2004 to the Milwaukee front office's watchful eye. Twenty-two players played in two seasons in Milwaukee after being acquired via the waiver wire, minor league free agency, Rule 5 draft or through trade for cash/meaningless minor leaguers. Extraordinary.

    In his first offseason, some of Melvin's first moves were landing who would later be his 2004 and now 2005 starting centerfielders. In his first official transaction, Melvin claimed 27-year-old Scott Podsednik off waivers from the Mariners. Once with Melvin in Texas, a recurring theme here, Poddy would go on to compile 37 Win Shares in two years. Replacing him will be Brady Clark, claimed off waivers from the Mets (1/03) when Melvin saw a player with versatility and discipline. After seven and thirteen Win Share seasons, Clark will open the 2005 season atop the Brew Crew lineup.

    During that same winter, Melvin signed two pitchers who would later become his first and last man in the bullpen. Another ex-Ranger, Dan Kolb, was signed and would be influential as a reliever in his two seasons. Brooks Kieschnick was given the opportunity by Milwaukee to play both ways, becoming the most unique 25th man in the Majors. Baseball Prospectus 2005 amusingly points out that in 2003 Brooks excelled in his PH role, while in 2004 his strength was his arm. A great way to spend a few hundred thousand, that's for sure.

    Melvin's first trade came a week after the Kieschnik signing, as he attempted to shore up two roster spots with two low-A pitchers. Seeing depth in Minnesota's catching and pitching, Melvin deemed Matt Kinney and Javier Valentin undervalued commodities. Of course, later that spring Melvin needed more outfield depth, and subsequently traded Valentin to Tampa for Jason Conti. Sure, neither turned out particularly well, but six Win Shares is better than Matt Yeatman and Gerry Oakes have amassed.

    Not all of his discount signing, however, came that winter. Since then, he acquired (to name a few) two starters and two key relievers. Doug Davis was released by the Blue Jays in July of 2003, allowing Melvin to sign the southpaw as a minor league free agent. Yet another player from his regime in Texas, Davis has turned it around this season, as Baseball Prospectus tabbed him as one of the Majors 20 best pitchers last year. While Victor Santos, Dave Burba, and Jeff Bennett (Rule 5) have not contributed to Davis' level, their contributions were well worth their price.

    When success happens to these players, gradually their price -- or the perception of it -- rises. And then, you sell. This has been a philosophy that has most recently been used on Melvin's cell phone, and the type that has benefitted the Brewers the most for the future.

    Dean Taylor's stay in Milwaukee isn't one to brag about. Like Chuck LaMar, longevity was about the nicest thing you can reflect on. His best move, in my opinion, was the acquisition of Richie Sexson at the trade deadline in 2000. It didn't take long for Sexson to become a hero in Milwaukee, his power and personality made him an immediate fan favorite. But his salary made him a burden and caused Melvin to trade him last winter. With home run numbers galore you can imagine that there were suitors, but would anyone guess he acquired six players in return?

    While there was no way to know this before the trade, Melvin was "helped" by the fact that Richie Sexson went down with injury. Lyle Overbay hit 53 doubles as Sexson's replacement, and his emergence allowed the team the good fortune of not rushing Prince Fielder. Junior Spivey's presence would allow for another trade, Craig Counsell was the "veteran leader," Chad Moeller the fill-in catcher, and there is hope for Chris Capuano and Jorge De La Rosa. Nothing fantastic, but this group totaled forty Win Shares last year, and Sexson has already left Arizona. Two thumbs up.

    Another Taylor move -- months before his exit -- was a deadline veteran dump of Mark Loretta to the Astros. We can look at this now and find another thing to make fun of Taylor for, but one of the acquisitions was Keith Ginter, a good player. I've sung Ginter's praises for awhile, and even though I still think he is a better player than Spivey, Junior has definitely allowed for his exit. Melvin, seeing Beane drooling at Ginter, acquired Justin Lehr and Nelson Cruz for him. Early reports say the trade will be good for the Brew Crew, who may have found something to be proud of in Cruz.

    Finally, with respect to the true "buy low, sell high" moves, Podsednik's waiver claim now looks a lot better after this winter. Knowing the Sox wanted to trade power for speed, Melvin used the most efficient basestealer as bait and landed a big fish. Carlos Lee. Milwaukee once again has another big right-handed bat to complement Geoff Jenkins, and put a little more punch to the middle of the lineup. Don't you mind that Luis Vizcaino, this was one of Melvin's best moves to date.

    Another good move was selling Kolb high. While his revival these past two seasons has been fantastic, the strikeout rate is beyond concerning. So, with John Smoltz moving to the rotation, the Brewers were able to get value for Kolb. Good value. Top fifty prospect value. I've already labeled Jose Capellan my most talked about player, and I'll say if he doesn't succeed as a power starter (remember, think Bartolo Colon) he'll succeed Kolb in short time. Great, great acquisition.

    But, I would be remiss in talking about Melvin's skillset without mentioning his weakness. Deadline deals. Dumping veterans. For some reason or another, those two have not mixed well, and the returns have not panned out. While trading veterans is not an easy thing, especially fringe players, you hope that every once in awhile something you get back will help out.

    Nine veterans: Paul Bako, Ray King, Alex Sanchez, Curt Leskanic, Eric Young, Mike Dejean, Dave Burba, Ben Grieve, Manny Alexander. Not a fantastic group by any means, but certainly something worthy of more Major League return than Wes Helms (16 WS as Brewer), Wes Obermueller (9), John Foster (1), and some cash. I would hardly say this trait is essential in a General Manager -- I mean when they get good he won't need it -- but it certainly helps when rebuilding.

    What has helped is good teaching, something Melvin seems very intent on giving his Major League players. Ned Yost has been a good manager, an ex-catcher and then third base coach for the Braves, I've always been impressed while watching him. Butch Wynegar has some solid reclimation projects as hitting coach, maybe dampening the blow of never fulfilling his promise as a catcher. And in my mind, Mike Maddux is one of the game's three best pitching coaches. The help he has given players (especially Kolb, Davis and Ben Sheets) has aided in making Melvin look good.

    The newest addition to this coaching staff, if you will, is Damian Miller. This was Melvin's first major free agent splash, and it's hard to call it that when the total sum doesn't reach ten million. But still, Miller has had an excellent history of catching good pitchers, and that should only help this young staff. His offense will always be serviceable, but the combination of low cost, good defense, and hometown hero more than justifies this deal.

    Overall, Doug Melvin is a very good General Manager. His stint in Texas was very good, and while it's going to take a bit to get things going in Milwaukee, time will tell that he should stay in his position a long time.

    *****

    The final question I want to answer today is the following: How long will this winningless drought last? When will Milwaukee get some playoff games? My answer: not long.

    This year should be a bit of a struggle for the Brew, the last season of finding cheap options and, most importantly, further developing their youth. J.J. Hardy will get a ton of at-bats up the middle, as will Dave Krynzel. Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder will call their own shots, but I would guess both will be more than ready in 2006. Jose Capellan is very similar and should have 10-15 Major League starts under his belt at this time next year. Those are the big five, the group that should determine whether this rebound happens.

    And what they do, I think, is give Melvin a very defined route to take in the next twelve months. Fielder, Weeks and Krynzel will allow for Overbay, Spivey and Clark to become expendable. Along with Hardy, they give the club four starters for under $2M. Throw in the Branyan/Helms combo coming in cheap at the hot corner, and 62.5% of the lineup will be about $5M.

    Geoff Jenkins is signed to an extension already, one that will pay him $7.5M in 2006, and then $7M in 2007. Damian Miller will be making $2.35M and $2.25M in those respective seasons. That's just fifteen million dollars, leaving one outfield spot open. Think they have room to lock up Carlos Lee? I think so. Carlos would have a hard time turning down a midseason extension, a move Melvin has proved willing to make in the past.

    Melvin also needs to sign Ben Sheets to an extension. A four-year deal for about $50M would in line with the recent signings of Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Kerry Wood. Sheets is fast becoming one of the game's best, and the club would be seriously mistaken to not tie him up. And with Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Jose Capellan and Ben Hendrickson filling the rotation for about $3M, the club can afford to pay up for its ace.

    All of the above is before the haul that Melvin is likely to get for Overbay, Spivey and Clark. He will have about $10M on the open market to spend judiciously. Really, the only thing stopping this team now is one of the big five failing, which I don't see happening. The combination of these youngsters and a solid core of Sheets, Jenkins, and Lee could be enough to win one or more division titles in the not too distant future.

    Then, Melvin will finally get his due.

    WTNYMarch 11, 2005
    Ups and Downs
    By Bryan Smith

    TINSTAPP. This is the idea that pitching prospects are always overrated, that their volatility is too large to be able to closely predict future greatness. The term has been overused over the last few years, has been taken out of context, and also has been dismissed by yours truly.

    Do I completely reject the theories it presents? No, there is undoubtedly some validity to the idea. But at the same time, any prospect evaluator would be remiss to claim weakness in a player just for throwing off a mound.

    This week, the Cleveland Indians discovered that my second ranked pitching prospect, Adam Miller, would be sidelined until June with an elbow injury. Luckily, Adam is avoiding Tommy John surgery, though he's hardly assured that he won't go under the knife at some point. Injuries are the most unfortunate of event for a player like this, a kid that touched triple digits and then spotted a change twenty miles per hour slower.

    The aforementioned volatility causes pitching prospects to go in all sorts of directions. Baseball America released a really fun feature this week, looking at their various top 100 prospect lists since 1990. This allows us to go back to, say 1996, and see that the top five pitching prospects were Paul Wilson, Alan Benes, Livan Hernandez, Jason Schmidt and Matt Drews, respectively. Talk about a wide range of results, huh?

    Today, I want to look at three players that have each been top five pitching prospects in their career, and try to evaluate their future going forward. All of these players were expected to don their organizations Major League uniform this season, one as early as Opening Day, one from the bullpen, and one at some point to a hero's welcome.

    Zack Greinke, Rick Ankiel, Felix Hernandez. Talk about a wide range.

  • Wednesday, it was learned that Rick Ankiel, BA's top pitching prospect in 1999, would give up pitching to become an outfielder. After a successful but erratic winter in Puerto Rico, Ankiel said that, "The whole time, the frustration that was built up, it seems like it was really eroding my spirit."

    Ankiel's past is well-documented, he came to the Majors at 19 in 1999, as St. Louis' prized jewel. His 2000 season was fantastic, 175 innings with an ERA+ of 133. And then the 2000 playoffs, Steve Blass struck, and Ankiel could not find the strike zone. 2001 was a disaster, as a clouded mind and damaged arm forced a fall from grace that no one would have predicted.

    But, Rick Ankiel's mind was not as weak as some made it out to be. Last September, Ankiel re-emerged as I called it "one of the best baseball stories of the year." Rich watched his first game, and said of it, "you didn't have to be a Cardinal fan to get caught up in the moment." Back was that mid-90s fastball, the Zito-esque curveball. Most importantly, back was the called strike. No more.

    Now the only called strike in Ankiel's future will be a bad thing, he'll be hoping for balls to end up at backstops. Ankiel will be in the batter's box, a place where he's not quite as bad as you'd expect. In the last thirty years, 19 players have had between 50 and 100 at-bats at the age of 20. Ankiel did so in 2000, hitting .250/.292/.282. That just so happens to be the 10th best of those 19 players, smack dab in between Dale Murphy and Jim Thome.

    OK, ok, I know I just lost some credibility throwing those two names out there. He's not that good by any means, but that isn't to say he's bad. In 2001, when he was in the Appy League trying to figure out how to pitch again, the club let him hit on his days off. Would you believe that in 105 at-bats he hit .286/.357/.638? John Manuel of Baseball America points out that had he had enough at-bats, he would have led the league in slugging.

    This past Appy League season, only one player had a slugging that high. Mitch Einertson. His slugging was .692, and he was named by BA as the league's best prospect. But, remember, all this was in 2001. This season, Ankiel will be 25, normally a little too old for the Appy and Midwest Leagues, the two most likely destinations for Ankiel this season.

    I'm going to miss that Ankiel curveball, the kind that makes hitters duck in fear only to realize the pitch was a strike. But I am not convinced that we have heard the last of Ankiel, something I wouldn't have believed in 2002. This kid is just full of surprises.

  • "The Mariners will be sure not to mistake ability for readiness, not here, not this year."

    "Frank Cashen is known in baseball circles as an uncommonly conservative man who frowns on rushing youngsters into the big leagues."

    The first quote is from the Seattle Times on March 4, on Felix Hernandez. The second from a New York newspaper during the 1984 Spring Training. Dwight Gooden was in camp, and the team swore they wouldn't bring Doc up north, right up until they announced he had made the team.

    He pitched 16 innings that spring, he had a 3.37 ERA, with 13 hits, 8 strikeouts and 3 walks. Nothing spectacular, except that the Mets vice president said, "Dwight Gooden throws four different pitches, and has command of everything."

    Cashen the promised to be careful with him, saying, "We won't do what we did with Leary in that ill-fated game in Chicago when it was so cold and windy. At least early on, I hate to use the word 'coddle,' but we'll coddle him a bit."

    Except that on April 13, Dwight Gooden started in Chicago against the Cubs. He didn't last long, throwing just 3.1 innings before Davey Johnson took him out down 6-0. Between that and the 218 innings that Gooden logged that year, not sure "coddle" was the word that Cashen was looking for.

    Through the Mariners study of young pitching prospects, Mike Goff (director of instruction) said that, "there is no set pattern." That's the nice way of saying the track record for 19 year old pitchers is disastrous.

    Eleven pitchers have thrown 50 innings at 19 in the last forty years. You've heard of some, Gooden and Blyleven, Catfish Hunter, Jim Palmer, Jose Rijo. But all eleven had their careers shortened in some way, whether it be by one lost season, or in Gary Nolan's case, out of the Majors before 30.

    The best way to go, in my mind, is to break Felix in through the bullpen. Jim Palmer, Catfish Hunter and Jose Rijo all spent significant time there at 19, and through this probably set the standard at pitcher. Few people have arms like Blyleven did, throwing 25 starts at 19 and never looking back.

    Wednesday, in a spot start, Felix Hernandez allowed four runs in just over an inning. Hopefully, this will be reason enough for Seattle brass to start the right-hander in AAA. When he pushes the envelope in June, bring him to the bullpen. Work him into the rotation by August.

    There is no recipe to avoid pitching injuries. There are cautionary measures. With a kid like this, the Mariners need to be making a list of them, and checking it twice.

  • We have the failure, the hopeful, and now the success story. That was what Zack Greinke's 2004 season was, one of the most successful for a 20 year old in recent memory.

    In this article at the Hardball Times, I gave a list of twenty players that at 20, played for the first time and would go on to make 20 starts. Those, I think, are the players that Greinke should first be compared to.

    By ERA+, Greinke is tied for sixth on this list with Mike Witt, behind Dennis Eckersley, Dave Rozema, Chet Nichols, Dennis Blair, and Bret Saberhagen. What's really interesting is that only two players before Greinke, Rozema and Saberhagen, had a K/BB ratio of 2.0 or more. Rozema was best at 2.71, which shows the dominance that Greinke (3.85) has in that category. And as I've said before, just the simple task of keeping his K/BB where it is for the duration of his career would put Zack fourth all-time in that category.

    That stat helps show the incredible poise Greinke has in the mound, changing the movement on his fastball and the speed on his breaking pitch. One worry that was originally expressed with Zack was his strikeout ratio, which stood at just 3.82 after five starts. But after closing at 6.21, the only problem is that home run ratio. 26 in 145 innings is not OK, and really the only flaw that currently stands in Zack's way.

    I think, similar to comparison Rozema, you will see Greinke face more struggles this season did than he did in 2004. His walk ratio should raise a bit, his strikeouts down a little. He's not a player that I would particularly reach for in fantasy baseball, unless I was in a keeper league. Because in those leagues, few players will have more value than Zack in the next 15 years.

    *****

    You ask me, and I'd rather predict greatness for Jason Schmidt and Matt Drews and be wrong on one than tossing both aside.

    There is such thing as a pitching prospect. Never is one can't miss, and even a talent as great as King Felix is hardly future Win Shares in the bank. Sometimes they get injured, sometimes they can't find the strike zone, and sometimes they succeed. You have to coddle, you have to teach well, and you have to pray.

  • WTNYMarch 08, 2005
    Smith & Stroh Cubs 40 (Part Three)
    By Bryan Smith

    As the title implies, this is the third part to a series counting down the Cubs top forty prospects backwards to forwards. We started the list with 40-31 on Sunday, followed by 30-21 at The Cub Reporter yesterday. Today, we return with the third segment, Cubs prospects 20-11. Enjoy...

    20. Brandon Sing- 1B- West Tenn

    Smith: Am I skeptical of Sing this high? Gosh yes, the man's offensive past prior to 2004 hardly is better than that of Ronny Cedeno. It is undoubtedly risque to put Sing, after six minor league seasons, in the top twenty following his first .800 OPS campaign. But, since we closed part two talking about the lack of ceiling in Cedeno and Geovany Soto, it's fitting to talk about a guy with a huge ceiling now. Sing's 2004 season was everything and more that Jason Dubois' 2002 was, which sent Dubois to a Blue Jays uniform for Spring Training 2003. Sing, on the other hand, was passed on by all twenty-nine teams in the Rule 5 draft this December. Credit that to his spotty offensive past, and a little athleticism problem, similar to that of Philadelphia Phillie prospect Ryan Howard. Sing is a Three True Outcomes player, chock full o' homers, walks and strikeouts. I can already envision the following he'll get, a mix of chicks and sabermetricians. Yikes.

    Stroh: Part of me says, yeah well you try anything three times and you'll probably succeed, and the other part of me says egads, a .970 OPS would be incredible if it were in Little League. Sing's always had a ton of power, and Fleita originally compared him to Jim Thome about 4 years ago, in terms of being a late bloomer with tons of power. Sing's walk rate also increased dramatically last year, at least partially because FSL pitchers undoubtedly pitched around the guy who would later be the league's MVP, which almost makes his 32 bombs even more impressive. The only real negative to his season last year was a middlish .270 batting average. The story goes that power prospects face a tough adjustment in AA because pitchers have a much better command of their breaking stuff, and I will admit that Sing still can look rather foolish against good offspeed stuff. But in the end, I'm emphatically on the fence. If he can hit home runs and draw walks, nobody will care if AA pitchers do make him look foolish. Either way, Sing is likely to be prime trade bait for an organization with a stud like Brian Dopirak behind him, and a guy like Dubois in front of him.

    19. Jon Connolly- SP- West Tenn

    Smith: Funny, I thought as the true "stat-heavy" evaluator of the two of us, that I would have Connolly higher on my list than Stroh. It was not true though, as the other Bryan was singing his praise when we argued over positioning. When you see Connolly, you just wish that every prospect had that kind of change, a pitch that has been good enough to let him dominate low and high-A. Despite that, my concerns with Connolly are an awful long list, one that leads me to be skeptical on how he'll handle AA. First, there is the lack of a big league fastball, or even a AA fastball for that matter. Second, a K/9 that has never topped 7.0, and only got over 6.0 this year. While the rise is encouraging, it is still too low for me to really believe he'll keep it going. I like his control and K/BB, it was just be nice to see a little more pop...both on his stat sheet and the catcher's mitt.

    Stroh: Why is it that performance analysts still have questions about guys like Connolly? If what they espouse were really true, wouldn't they be falling all over themselves in support of guys like this? I think the fact that they are not is a tacit acknowledgement that there are certain things the numbers don't tell you, and in this case, it's that Connolly's fastball rarely tops 87. Still, as much as I would like to start talking up scouts, most of the guys who see Connolly pitch probably don't stick around for long unless they have his stat sheet in front of him. The Cubs have a pretty good history with pitchers like this, starting with Scott Downs in '99 and Carmen Pignatiello more recently. Connolly's numbers last year were a lot like Downs' in 98-99, just with fewer strikeouts (but not with any corresponding increase in walks or hits). As a left hander with possibly the best changeup in the system, Connolly will get plenty of chances, and if his lone AA start last year is any indication, his lack of velocity won't matter. I see Connolly knocking on the door to Des Moines fairly early in 2005.

    18. Will Ohman- RP- Iowa

    Smith: We have already talked about Russ Rohlicek, the aging LOOGY that we both think could do significantly better than Stephen Randolph given the opportunity. Better than Rohlicek, we think, would be Will Ohman. If it seems like Ohman has been in this organization forever, it is because he has: drafted in the eighth round of the 1998 draft. His 1999 as a swingman was encouraging, his 2000 as a reliever was fantastic. Think Chadd Blasko's 2003, from the bullpen. And like Blasko, things worsened a bit the next year, only to find that his arm had some structural damage. Everyone had given up on Ohman; his 2004 spot in the Iowa 'pen was probably due more to loyalty than optimism. 45 games with a 12.9 K/9 later, his bandwagon is getting crowded again. There are monster control problems still, and his season wasn't awe-inspiring, but the solidness of it all caught us off-guard. To do so again in 2005, Ohman will get that WHIP down, while keeping the K/9 up. If he does so, Stephen Randolph will become the unemployment rate's concern.

    Stroh: When I saw Ohman last Spring, he wasn't anywhere near the same pitcher I saw at Wrigley a few years back. His fastball was under 90, his slider didn't have much bite, and he seemed to really be struggling with himself. But after a year of mediocrity in AAA, Ohman's arm is apparently back, and his numbers over the winter seem to prove that. This will be the proverbial second year after arm surgery, and Jim Hendry talked up Ohman a number of times this winter. At this point, I think Ohman has the potential to be more than a LOOGY, given the quality of his slider. At best, he's BJ Ryan, but at worst, he's still a left handed arm with a power slider, and that is still a valuable commodity in a game filled with inefficient markets. Heck if we actually gave up something to get Steven Randolph...

    17. Mark Reed- C- Peoria

    Smith: As Stroh did yesterday with Eric Patterson, I'm pretty much going to pass this report over to my partner. While Grant Johnson was the Cubs first choice in the 2004 draft, I was a bit surprised to see Mark Reed get more hype. Credit that to his brother, probably, and I should mention that everyone says their hitting abilities are equal. Reed was very good in his first ten professional games, but the raves from scouts are definitely more notable than the stat sheet. I can tell you this: consider my appetite already whetted from the possibility of combining Jeremy Reed's offensive set with a catcher.

    Stroh: In Vineline's annual prospect report, Mark Reed was rated as having one of the top "baseball IQs" in the Cub system. I may be biased, but guys like that tend to do well. Reed was drafted in the 3rd round, but that was partly a signability question, and nobody questioned his talent as a first or second rounder. His ability to catch obviously adds value, but the Cubs are thrilled with his athleticism and his ability to play nearly any position. Scouts project him with more power than older brother Jeremy, who will probably start in CF for the Mariners this year, but with the same plate discipline. He's still a long ways away, but his bloodlines and athletic ability indicate big things ahead.

    16. Matt Craig- 1B/3B- Iowa

    Smith: Back to a guy I know a lot about, and love, we have Matt Craig. I'll admit to fighting for his placement this high, so if he falters, you guys know where to find me. Plain and simple, this kid can flat out rake. He's getting old and his athleticism is not a strength (in the slightest), but we Craig is one of the top three hitters in this system. At the University of Richmond, he was sensational, drafted in the third round following a season where his OPS neared 1.200. He finished out the 2002 season in a struggle, and had an unimpressive 2003 season in the Florida State League. A .782 OPS isn't bad there, but it definitely isn't enough for a offensive-minded third basemen. Now, following a .275/.363/.509 season in West Tenn, I can officially become a full-fledged supporter. His walks were way up this year (strikeouts too, unfortunately), and his twenty home runs are enough to brag about given the league and park. Defensive issues will keep him back and forth at the corners, but if his basement (to continue the house analogy) is Greg Norton, I'm glad we have him.

    Stroh: To be blunt, Craig's value comes almost purely from his ability to continue to play 3b, something that is severely in question at this point. If he has to play 1b, he suddenly doesn't look all that special standing next to Brandon Sing and Brian Dopirak. I have no problem with my partner fighting for Craig's high placement, because I love that Craig is a well rounded hitter. He hits a few doubles, a few homers, draws a few walks, and if I'm going to the mat with Micah Hoffpaiur, then I should do the same with Craig. And I will. I just hope I'm saying that his offense outweighs his defensive woes, rather than trying to come up with a reason for him to be useful as a first baseman.

    15. Roberto Novoa- RP- Iowa

    Smith: Another player I'll admit to not knowing a ton about, but reports of him have made my initial reaction on the Kyle Farnsworth trade a good one. A mid-90s heater with a plus-slider, minus the craziness that Kyle gave North Siders on a daily basis. It is easy to get lost in the mess of solid relief prospects that the Cubs have, so it is a possibility that Novoa won't even sniff the Majors with this organization. Heck, it's possible he won't sniff the closer's role in Des Moines. While this trade was a good move for the Cubs, in my opinion, it definitely wasn't the career move that Roberto Novoa was hoping for. He was looking forward to a team plane and five-star hotels, not the Iowa Cub bus with the occasional motel. Ya gotta feel for the kid.

    Stroh: Novoa's right arm is like a sling shot that needs to be aligned, and I think that is a good thing. Nothing he throws is straight. He flings his two-seamer from varying 3/4 arm slots, and his slurvey slider acts like a Frisbee more often that not. I only saw him pitch twice last year, so I can't comment further until I see him in Mesa, but Novoa has an arm and a frame that go together like pizza and beer. His control can be an issue, and there are also rumors of makeup questions (what, again?). But all in all, the return on the Farns wasn't half bad. Novoa will be one of a cast of thousands hanging out in Des Moines this summer, waiting to get the call.

    14. Mike Wuertz- RP- Iowa

    Smith: His 2004 numbers were as good as any PCL reliever. His two-pitch combo was impressive enough for Dusty to bring him north last season. Alex Ciepley phrases it well, when asking, "Is it because he's not blonde?" Todd Wellemeyer and Jon Leicester undoubtedly have the lead in the last-spot battle, though I don't think Wuertz has done too much, besides being a wonderful Iowa closer, to really prove he's the right man. Take yesterday, when Wuertz was awful in his first spring outing against the Giants. The kid has had some problems stepping up when the time is right. I like him a lot, and think he deserves 40-50 games in a big league bullpen. But I also have part of me asking, "Is he just another quad-A player?"

    Stroh: Wuertz's slider is about the best in the Cubs system (reminds me of Jason Hart, circa 1994). He can throw it to both sides of the plate on any count, and when he was successful last year, he was able to stay ahead of hitters. Wuertz was among the most reliable members of the bullpen last September, but unfortunately Dusty only used him early in games. He's not flashy and will never blow it by hitters, but he profiles very well as a setup man, and is a refreshing part of the depth the Cubs have in the high minors. Where as the Wellemeyers and Leicesters of the world have 95 mph FB calling cards, Wuertz can come in and nibble with his offspeed stuff (which is admittedly better than either of those two). In the end, pitchers with even a single dominant pitch still have success. Heck, Mel Rojas lived off his great splitter and nothing else for many years, so I can see Wuertz becoming a good setup man. But he'll need the opportunity to be able to do that, and I wonder if he'll get the 40-50 innings to prove himself in Chicago.

    13. Richard Lewis- 2B- Iowa

    Smith: Part of me thinks that Richie Lewis, if given the opportunity, can be everything this year that Mark Grudzielanek was a year ago. The other part of me thinks that Lewis' breakout that began in the Arizona Fall League in 2003, and went through all of last season is a bit fake. With Soto, Cedeno and Craig all having good years this season after bad offensive histories, you have to wonder if there was something in the water in Jackson, Tennessee this year. If so, then Lewis must have been drinking loads of it, because he had a year to remember in the Southern League. Lewis has doubles power, walks just barely enough, and strikes out too much. His career length will be decided on how often he makes contact, and how high that batting average is. Lewis is the only thing that will make the Juan Cruz trade justifiable, so you can understand why his fan base rose so dramatically this season.

    Stroh: What are we supposed to do with his 100+ Abs at Iowa at the end of the year, before he got hurt? Sure, his .900+ OPS at AA is incredible, especially for a guy who doesn't have a ton of power. But what about his AAA time? I, of course, am willing to chalk that up to nerves or changing scenery or whatever, otherwise we wouldn't have Lewis this high, but it is fairly concerning. Hendry loves Lewis, and talks about him as a possible 2b replacement for Todd Walker if he ever leaves. Like Bryan Smith said, Lewis hits a ton of doubles and walks just enough to balance out his lack of home run power. He was voted the MVP of the Southern League last year, and will probably play a bit more of a utility role this year in AAA, both because of Fontenot's presence, but also because it could hasten his ability to contribute to the Cubs. Andy Pratt is chilling in Milwaukee now, so Lewis is all we have left if Billy Beane can turn Juan Cruz into Octavio Dotel.

    12. Grant Johnson- SP- Daytona/Peoria

    Smith: I'm going to pretend that selecting Johnson so high in the 2004 draft had nothing to do with him being a hometown boy (from my rival high school, no less), or because of Jim Hendry's connections with the Notre Dame program. Instead, I'm going to hope that Hendry got some inside info from his friend that coaches at ND, verifying that Johnson is at full health. Still, I worry about spending so much on a college pitcher with an injury history, which is why Mark Reed excites me more. Still, Johnson is supposed to be a solid kid with a heavy fastball, who still could use some baseball experience. His control is a problem, and in case you wondering, Johnson was not one of Craig Burley's top 100 pitchers in the 2004 college season.

    Stroh: Every year I have to rank somebody based on nothing more than what I've read, and I hate that. Hence, my yearly trip to Mesa, Arizona in about two weeks. Because of this, I can't really objectively comment on much, other than to say that Johnson already had shoulder surgery and came through it still with his 94 mph fastball in tact. To say that is rare would be like saying teenage girls are fickle. Some scouts think his slider is his best pitch, and to his credit, he pitched most of the year last year at Notre Dame without even using it. Jim Callis (or should I call him sempai?) says that Johnson was easily a 1st round talent who fell because of his injury and because he could have gone back to school. Without a first round pick last year, the Cubs were smart to get early round value with guys like Johnson, Reed, and Patterson, even though none were actually picked that high. The Cubs have followed Johnson for years and are said to love his makeup (there's that word again). While he might start relatively slow because of his arm history, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Johnson start in sunny Daytona this year. The easiest comp for Johnson is Blasko. Blasko has a longer arm delivery and a different breaking ball, but both are taller, power right handers. Reproducing Blasko's 2003 would move Johnson to the top 5 of this list in a heartbeat.

    11. Bobby Brownlie- SP- Iowa

    Smith: Unfortunately, I have never had the pleasure of watching Bobby Brownlie pitch. But, I've talked to people who have, and most come away with the same report. Flat, unimpressive fastball, but wow, "you should see that curve." I think of Brownlie as a poor man's Gavin Floyd, but if his fastball is as straight and slow as I've heard, he's not going to have much success. A lot of home runs indicate that he tends to hang that curve too, but who doesn't? As his arm injuries become more and more a thing of the past, anyone has to wonder if that fastball velocity is going to ever return.

    Stroh: Sometimes I wonder how much Brownlie's stock has dipped over the years simply because of these 94 mph radar gun readings when he was a junior in college. Since then, Brownlie has been anywhere in the 87-92 range, but I wonder how we would analyze him if we didn't know that he used to throw a bit harder. If we didn't know that, he might not be quite this high, but he'd still be pretty high -- I mean, it's not as if he can't get anybody out, and last I checked, he still had that hammer curve ball. Brownlie's deuce is an any count, any speed, any time pitch. His control is very good, and the Cubs love his ability to attack and control hitters. His change still ranges from good to not so good, but he doesn't have to use it that much since his curve is that good. One scout last year made the comment that he didn't see Brownlie as any more than a setup man because of his velocity. However, that news never made its way back to Bobby, as he continued to throw outs on his way to a 3.36 ERA in 150 innings at West Tennessee. This is one of the things that separates shallow analysis from well-rounded baseball analysis. In Brownlie's case, much like Connolly, he constantly is downgraded with the whole "where's the velocity" bit, which has been around for years, and even the stats guys say the same thing. Even if it is a point that needs to be made, the extent to which it dominates the discussion is a bit unsettling. In the end, Brownlie is getting guys out, he is getting them out frequently, and there are plenty of guys in the big leagues who throw 90 and don't have Brownlie's curve. Doesn't that count for something?

    Our series will close tomorrow with the final installment at the Cub Reporter. I want to thank Bryan Stroh for what has been a very fun and enlightening set of articles. As for me, expect me to abandon the Cub bias later this week.

    WTNYMarch 06, 2005
    Stroh & Smith Cubs 40
    By Bryan Smith

    Last year, former blogger Bryan Stroh helped Christian Ruzich, ranking thirty Cubs prospects for the Cub Reporter. This year, Bryan and I have agreed to combine our knowledge to form one list, which will feature forty Cub prospects. Over the next four days, TCR and this site will alternate pieces as Bryan and I count from forty to one. Enjoy...

    40. Jermaine Van Buren- RP- Iowa

    Smith: The hope with JVB is that he becomes the next Joe Borowski, a who-woulda-thunk signing from the Independent League. Van Buren actually came with a little more notoriety than JoBo, as he was suggested to the organization by super scout Gary Hughes. Last year was his first extensive stint in relief pitching, and it went extremely well. Jermaine made a mockery of the Southern League, posting a H/9 below four. The issue here is one with control: he walked more men than he allowed hits to. Van Buren will be part of a ridiculously good Iowa bullpen, and has enough youth (24 this year) to wait it out for a year there.

    Stroh: Last year, Van Buren was buried in the Cubs media guide along with most of the rest of the roster filled in the organization, and this was unsurprising given that Van Buren had been signed out of Indy league and looked to be roster filler at either Daytona or West Tennessee. Indeed, Van Buren broke camp last year with Lansing, and pitched middle relief for the season's first two weeks. When a roster spot opened up at West Tennessee, the Cubs decided not to fill it with one of the young arms at Daytona, and instead opted for Van Buren. Thrust into the closer's role by complete fluke, Van Buren earned Manager Bobby Dickerson's confidence with a smooth first outing. From there, it was more of the same, and as my partner points out, Van Buren's final numbers were outstanding. This is a former 2nd round draft pick that combines good stuff with Joe Borowski's "moxie." If only it was always this easy. Van Buren's fastball doesn't rise above 90-91, but he has a knack for making big pitches at big times, and his secondary stuff allows him to put hitters away when he gets ahead of them. This year, he is in big league camp and surely will have more than the obligatory 10 lines in the Media Guide. He'll be only a 75 minute flight away from Chicago, playing at beautiful Sec Taylor Stadium in Des Moines.

    39. Adam Greenberg- LF- West Tenn

    Smith: In my mind, opportunity will be the only thing holding that holds Adam Greenberg back from becoming a useful fourth outfielder. A left-handed bat, the ability to play all three outfield spots, a good amount of speed and keen batting eye are all working in Greenberg's favor. On his to-do list should be adding muscle, not too many Major League outfielders succeed at 170 pounds. A great hitter at UNC, Greenberg has very little power, though he does have enough pop to get by. To me, Coco Crisp is the perfect comparison, though Covelli definitely has age in his corner. If all goes to plan, Greenberg would make a fine fourth outfielder for Dubois-Pie-Patterson.

    Stroh: I confess that I've probably underrated Greenberg over the years, and once again I am sure there will be those out there who decry his ranking at #39. After a solid .291/.381 in 300 at-bats in Daytona, Greenberg followed that up with .277/.366 at West Tennessee. The Crisp comparison is a good one, especially if Greenberg can have the kind of year that Crisp had in 2003 in AAA (.360/.434/.511). Greenberg will probably never slug .500, but if he keeps his OBA above .370 or so, he'll make his way onto a big league roster sooner than later. Oneiri Fleita says that the question is not whether Greenberg will play in the majors, but when. While that optimism is outstanding, especially coming from Fleita, the rest of us are left to debate whether Greenberg will end up more like Coco Crisp or Doug Dascenzo. I'm on the Dascenzo side, but I'm hoping that years of working with John Cangelosi and Vince Coleman will give Greenberg a 10% chance of becoming Scott Podsednik.

    38. Dave Crouthers- P- Iowa

    Smith: Crouthers is like the Christmas card you get from the family friends you dumped those extra tickets on. You couldn't have used the tickets anyway, but more was expected in return than a family portrait. The Sammy Sosa trade was not about Dave Crouthers, nor do I think the Cubs carefully handpicked him from the Baltimore farm system. Said to have modest stuff, Crouthers looks far more like a reliever than the starting he has been doing. A stacked Iowa pitching staff could leave him in and out of roles, as the Cubs see if there is some niche that will work for him.

    Stroh: I love my partner's comparison here, as he is dead on. Crouthers was plagued by questions of, brace yourselves people, mental makeup during his time in Baltimore. Of course, nobody has any idea what this means, other than that perhaps Crouthers' demeanor on the mound was lacking on those days when the slider just rolls and the changeup bounces in the dirt. Doesn't Carlos Zambrano also do that? Oh yeah, it's ok with him since everybody knows he's good. People only question your makeup when you don't succeed, even when you do the same stuff as the guys who are good. Oh well, Crouthers throws 92-93, touches 95 and has an above-average slider. As a starter, his changeup always hurts him, but the Cubs are rumored to be converting him to relief to see how his two pitch repertoire takes to the bullpen. A source I trust a great deal says that Crouthers' fastball/slider combo "will be filthy out of the bullpen." Look for Crouthers to begin his career as a reliever at Iowa, part of what looks to be a pretty unique collection of talent in a AAA bullpen.

    37. Carlos Vasquez- SP- West Tenn

    Smith: With a winning record below .500, a K/9 under 7.0 and ERA close to four, it's understandable to forget about Carlos Vasquez. Personally, I might have missed him if not for his inclusion on the 40-man roster, chosen above the likes of Andy Sisco, Luke Hagerty and Ricky Nolasco. I'll let Stroh hit on his attributes, because I am the skeptic of the two of us. A K/BB under 2.0 and a WHIP nearing 1.50? Come on, even a leftie with a power sinker isn't intriguing with those numbers.

    Stroh: For me, Vasquez is the one I wanted back. Somehow I ranked him way, way too high last year, undoubtedly falling in love with the idea of a left-handed sinkerballer that is smart enough to pound sinkers all day long. Simply put, in over 350 career minor league innings, Vazquez has allowed a whopping 19 home runs. Having had Tommy John surgery in 2002, the Cubs were very pleased with his progress in 2003, as he posted a solid 3.74 ERA at Lansing. Last year, Vasquez didn't necessarily build on that, but he didn't regress either. He only managed 79 innings, but his numbers were remarkably similar to the year before. His velocity isn't outstanding, but he's still just 23 and he'll be one more year removed from his arm surgery. Bryan Smith is right to say that his peripheral numbers, at first glance, don't suggest great things, but it is far too early to forget about Vasquez. The Cubs clearly think he is intriguing, and I'll trust Fleita any day of the week. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him win 12-14 games this year and throw 150 innings with a sub 3.50 ERA.

    36. Darin Downs- SP- Peoria

    Smith: Downs shows that this list is far more reflective of where these players are at than where they are going. On the outside it might appear that Downs is similar to the aforementioned Vasquez, what with that same poor K/BB and 1.50 WHIP. But Downs repertoire offers far more, remember that the Cubs were quite happy to end up with him in the fifth round in 2003. I think he could take off in his first year of full-season ball, catapulting up this list very quickly. He's definitely a candidate for 2005 Breakout Cub Prospect of the Year...I can't wait to see him pitch.

    Stroh: I agree Downs is quite the (almost trendy) breakout pick, though I will confess that I was a bit disappointed when I saw him pitch last Spring. He clearly has a good idea of how to pitch, and at times his deuce was outstanding, but it was very inconsistent and the rest of his stuff didn't overly wow me. Now, in his defense, and as his father apparently tells anyone who will listen, Downs may not be done growing yet, as his growth plates haven't completely fused together yet. As such, it wouldn't surprise me to see end up more toward the 6-4 side than the 6-2 side. He's currently listed at 6-3, but that's kind of like how I was listed at 6-4 in my high school basketball program. I saw Downs next to Sean Marshall and it reminded me of how I would get announced at 6-4 and would go run out to shake hands with the guy from the other team who was actually 6-4 and he would be at least 2 inches taller. Anyway, Downs should start the year at Peoria, and while he might not bust out this year if he's still growing and learning how to harness his body, this is a guy Jim Callis liked better than Sean Marshall when they were drafted in 2003. That says a lot, and as much as I like to think I know about baseball and Cub prospects, compared to guys like Callis and Fleita, I'm still just the kohai to their sempai.

    35. Scott Moore- 3B- Daytona

    Smith: Part of the Kyle Farnsworth package, Moore is similar to the kid that drops out of Harvard, but 'forgets' to change his resume accordingly. Being chosen eighth overall will undoubtedly be what he tells his grandkids, fittingly leaving out the repeat of high-A that he'll spend a year doing. There were worries that he was going to be too big for shortstop when he was chosen, how the Tigers chose him over Khalil Greene or Russ Adams is ludicrous. Moore doesn't even have the versatility of Drew Meyer, chosen tenth, who still has the bench role career route. Scott simply has the unfulfilled promise of power, lost amidst his horrific contact skills.

    Stroh: Moore actually hasn't played SS in awhile, as he played every game this year at the hot corner. Smith is right that being the eighth overall pick has a certain ring to it (as opposed to, say, the 1,345th overall pick). The Cubs were clearly interested because Moore has the kind of power rarely seen among infielders, let alone those who hit left-handed. Moore evidently has a "classic" left handed stroke, according to Baseball America, but two straight years hitting .230 doesn't bode all that well. To be honest, this might even be a bit high for Moore, who clearly is living off his "Harvard" status, but whose numbers really don't compare to the many players in the deep Cub system who have put up much, much better (see Sing, Brandon; Collins, Kevin; et al). Maybe a change of scenery will help, but let's face it, it would still be progress if he hit .250 and only struck out 120 times this year.

    34. Robert Ransom- SP- Daytona

    Smith: Whether he succeeds or fails, I am holding my partner responsible for this selection. His career at Vanderbilt can be summed up by looking at where he was drafted in 2003: 673rd. Since then his control has taken a step up, and it appears he'll go as that goes, since there isn't really much else to offer. Best case scenario, in my mind, is that he ends up a solid middle reliever, but throwing him every fifth day just isn't worth it.

    Stroh: Ok, here's our deal. If a guy succeeds, I'll take credit, if he doesn't it's your fault. Ok? Sounds pretty good to me. In Ransom's case, he was picked 673rd, but in light of our discussion of Scott Moore, that doesn't seem quite as relevant as it once did. As a stats guy, my partner should appreciate Ransom more. A sub 1.00 WHIP in 62 innings at Lansing, and an even 1.00 WHIP in an even 23 innings at Daytona. The Cubs even gave him a start in AA at the end of the year. Admittedly, it's not surprising for a guy from a good college program to move quickly in the low minors, but this isn't Sean Overholt we're talking about here, or even Rocky Cherry. This is a guy Baseball America called the Cubs "best late round pick" last year, and while his ceiling might not be any higher than a #4 starter, his chance of reaching that ceiling is higher than most of the Andy Siscos and Jae-Kuk Ryus of the world who have the ceiling that scouts love to dream about. Look for him at West Tennessee this year.

    33. Mike Fontenot- 2B- West Tenn

    Smith: I'm a little confused as to what level Fontenot will be playing at, given Richard Lewis surpassed him on the prospect radar this year. When looking at Fontenot's numbers, 2003 jumps out, and then you realize that he played in Bowie of the Eastern League. His two other seasons are far more telling of what he'll offer: league average hitting, a decent number of walks, and a bunch of doubles. Not sure if it would be a better career decision to spend the next month learning short and the hot corner, or taking his demotion to AA quietly.

    Stroh: Fleita has said that part of the fun of his job is trying to find places for people to play, and in this case, Smith is absolutely right to point out that Fontenot and Lewis are both promising second basemen coming off decent to good years in the high minors. Perhaps one will shift to SS or LF, or perhaps one will DH twice a week. Whatever the case, Fontenot draws a decent number of walks, but that is balanced by an Adam Greenberg-esque slugging percentage of around .400. Further, Fontenot's AAA numbers last year were not nearly as nice as AA numbers the year before when he hit .325/.399/.481 in the Eastern League. Baseball America was remarkably prescient in 2004 when it called Fontenot "trade bait," and the Cubs finally bit when they sent the Sammy Sosa Circus to Baltimore. Fontenot deserves credit for having some success in AAA, but his ceiling is probably something akin to Craig Counsell. If Fontenot broadens his horizons this year and plays a little short and third, he might find himself with a similar career, and hey, Counsell was once a World Series hero.

    32. Russ Rohlicek- RP- Iowa

    Smith: For the Cub fan that forgot about Tom Gordon and his dump to Houston shortly after Jim Hendry's arrival, meet Russ Rohlicek. Anyone else get the feeling that punctuality is not one of Russ' strengths? His career has been slow-moving if not successful, what with a college career at Long Beach and then he now enters his fifth minor league season. Nonetheless, the chance of Russ not succeeding as a LOOGIE is pretty low, so the Cubs were fairly lucky not to lose him through the Rule 5. Let's just hope that in 2006, he and Ohman give the Cubs a 600k replacement for Remlinger and Randolph.

    Stroh: It's a little unfair to talk about how Rohlicek is a little older than most "prospects" since his early career with Houston almost doesn't even count anymore. Shortly after the Cubs got him in the Tom Gordon deal, Rohlicek converted to relief and started throwing from a low ¾ arm angle (along with a number of organizational arms at the time, such as Ron Mahay). Since doing that, Rohlicek has put up some serious numbers, including a 2.09 ERA at West Tennessee last season. Control will determine whether Rohlicek becomes a LOOGY with a 10 year career, or one who bounces around from camp to camp in the Spring, with organizations hoping he'll figure it out on their behalf that year. I give it 50% odds that he’s a nice cheap alternative, as Bryan Smith says, to Mike Remlinger in 2006. In the meantime, he'll cool his heels down the left field line of Sec Taylor (noticing a trend here? Man that’s gonna be a sweet bullpen).

    31. Jae-Kuk Ryu- RP- West Tenn

    Smith: The Cubs might not go as far as the Orioles with psychological testing, but it wouldn’t take a scholar to realize that Ryu is not the normal human. His career was going solidly until that fateful day with the osprey, and coupled with arm injuries, he's kind of in a tailspin. 2005 will be his opportunity to get both feet firmly on the ground, though he’s now become a relief pitcher. I don't think it's the worst thing that could have happened for Ryu, but it sort of guarantees his future isn't with this organization. The hope now is for a great season, allowing Hendry to deal him in short time.

    Stroh: As a longtime Ryu apologist, I think it is a big step for me to announce that my patience with him is wearing thin. Come on, congratulate me. I think I'm growing here. Anyway, he allegedly threw 95 in the AFL, but is likely headed for a full season in the bullpen at West Tennessee. On a scouting scale, Ryu's pure stuff is just about as good as anybody's in the organization. Of course, there's more to pitching (and life as a minor leaguer), than those numbers between 20 and 80 would otherwise indicate. Sometimes you have problems adjusting to your new culture, sometimes you throw a ball and hit an osprey, sometimes you get into fights with teammates, and sometimes your shoulder just hurts. I'd give it a 10% chance that Ryu figures it out this year and starts dominating out of the bullpen, and if that happens, he's one of Jim Hendry's prime chips to use come July 15=July 31, 2005.

    Check TCR tomorrow for the next fourth of this list...

    WTNYMarch 04, 2005
    Next Year is Here
    By Bryan Smith

    Every year, prospect evaluators are forced to open their eyes to someone they never saw coming. Suddenly, this once marginal player is the flavor of the week, flying up prospect rankings.

    Maybe it was due to added strength or perhaps a full season of health. Maybe a new pitch was implemented, or velocity was added, or that change refined. No matter how, success is happening at paces no one thought possible.

    Call me naive, but I also think that statistics can bring us hints as to who might break out next. Jeff Francis, for example, closed out his 2003 season going 10-1 with a 1.06 ERA. Or Jason Kubel, who had a modest .761 OPS in 2003 while playing in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. A year later, both were player of the year candidates.

    Today, I will look at 15 players that I am predicting big things for in 2005. For some it will be great things - becoming one of the game's top prospects - for others, simple name recognition. I've found that these fifteen players usually fit into one of two groups: they are either solid but hardly stars (Francis pre-2004), or full of tools, but no polish (Alexis Rios pre-2003).

    Three of these players landed in my top 75 this year as a result of my confidence, two of which were in the top 50. Others wouldn't be in some top 200 lists, but trust me, people will know them soon.

    The most well-known player on my list is Nick Markakis, who many would argue does not belong on such a list. Already recognized as the top Oriole prospect by many sources, I have not seen a list that has Markakis higher (32) than I. Still learning the nuances of hitting, the former Junior College Player of the year has less offensive experience than a lot of hitting prospects. His season began poorly, leading some to question Doc Rodgers decision to take him off the mound.

    Except, as I wrote in his entry in my prospect list, things clicked in Markakis' last 225 at-bats. He hit .333/.400/.538, while striking out only 37 times. This is the kind of performance I hope to see from Nick in 2005, playing in the hitter-friendly Carolina League. There is no reason to believe, even with the acquisition of Sammy Sosa, that Markakis won't be the Baltimore right fielder in 2007. I also believe he'll be a top twenty prospect in just one year.

    My other well-known favorite is Jon Lester, who some might call the reach of my top 75. At forty-eight, I believe this will be the season that Lester puts it all together. Endurance has always been a problem with Jon, sustaining his good numbers from start to finish. His stuff at its best is fantastic, his fastball was up to the mid-90s in Sarasota last year. He was the player Arizona specified for in any Randy Johnson package, and if he isn't damaged goods, the D-Backs won't be the only club asking for him soon enough.

    Chris Young of the Chicago White Sox is the last of the players that are found both on my prospect and breakout lists. Compared by Phil Rogers of Baseball America to Mike Cameron, Young is the definition of a Three True Outcomes player. Strikeouts, walks, home runs. All are very prevalent in Young's game, and when you mix that with great defense, I believe you get a future Major Leaguer. He was a little old last year for the South Atlantic League, and this must be the season Young breaks out of his shell.

    Another five players that I think will break out next year were in my honorable mention. A player similar to Chris Young in terms of being a raw outfielder, is Elijah Dukes. One of many Devil Ray outfield prospects, Dukes is truly second to only Delmon Young in the organization tools-wise. He walks a little, has some pop, makes enough contact, and has tons of speed. The problem? Make-up issues, ending in an arrest this offseason. Once Dukes matches his head with his talent, he'll be joining Delmon in more than Montgomery.

    Two more outfielders are on my list, both of the 'solid if nothing else' variety. Melky Cabrera of the Yankees has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Bernie Williams on this site, with pretty solid skills across the board. He hit 38 doubles between the Midwest and Florida State Leagues, both in stadiums that don't exactly favor the hitter. As he moves to the Eastern league, look for some of those doubles to start clearing the fence in due time.

    Another of the same variety is Alex Romero of the Twins, who had a .792 OPS in the same stadium that Kubel had that .761 in. Romero doesn't have much in terms of power yet, but both his contact and plate discipline skills are top notch. Alex was also a star in the Venezuelan Winter League, and then later the Caribbean World Series. While projecting a Kubel-esque breakout is probably unfair, any development of power will make Romero a fairly complete prospect.

    Despite Minnesota already having an extremely deep system, Romero and Francisco Liriano both should help add more prospects next year. Liriano, a power southpaw that came over in the A.J. Pierzynski trade, progressed well after just pitching nine innings with arm problems in 2003. In thirteen of his starts this year, Liriano struck out seven batters, showing fantastic power skills. Both his H/9 and ERA were too high considering the rest of his stats, and for Liriano to be taken for real, both need to come down in 2005.

    Another Francisco with a similar profile is Francisco Rosario of the Toronto Blue Jays, a power right-hander who spent 2004 returning from arm injuries. His power stuff was almost back last year, and should be back in full this year. Rosario is quite dependent on his control, when his walks get up in numbers, he really struggles. Rosario will be 25 next year, making him quite old for a prospect. If he doesn't take off in AA next year, look for the Jays to consider moving his power stuff to the bullpen.

    Speaking of control problems, few in the minors need control to succeed like Ambiorix Burgos of the Royals. Last year in the Midwest League, Burgos struck out 172 batters in just 134 innings, while allowing just 109 hits. His problem? 75 walks. Burgos struck out more than ten batters four times, but also walked at least five on seven different occasions. Kansas City isn't the best organization to teach control (Colt Griffin), but they should make a point of it, because Burgos is one special talent.

    The final pitcher in this mold is Carlos Marmol, southpaw in the Cubs organization. A former catcher, Marmol slugged just .353 in 502 at-bats between 2000 and 2002. Moved to the mound in 2003, Marmol had a great season in low-A last year, striking out 154 with a 3.20 ERA. He needs to cut down on the walks and be more consistent with the stuff, but the right seeds have already been planted.

    Moving to the more polished pitchers, I have two: Sean Marshall and Thomas Pauly. Marshall was fantastic in the Midwest League, with a 12.75 K/BB in 51 innings. He was hurried to AA, but suffered a hand injury before getting acclimated there. The team brought him back into the limelight in the AFL, where he labored a bit, but still struck out 16 and walked just two. He'll need a little more stuff to be a top prospect, so here's hoping that's what the winter provided.

    A former reliever at Princeton, Thomas Pauly was great last year in the Carolina League with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5:1. Given that with a H/9 around seven, and finding problems gets difficult. I guess I could pick on him for that HR rate, but viewed in more context, it isn't even that bad. Don't be surprised to see Pauly give the Reds a pitching prospect they can actually brag about in just one year's time.

    We'll close today with three hitters, each far different than the other. Andy LaRoche, Dodger prospect and brother of the Atlanta first baseman, was a 39th round draft pick when teams expected him to attend Rice after junior college. Following a summer when he was named the Cape Cod League's best position prospect, the Dodgers gave him top-round money. Good decision. Once the average catches up with the rest of his skills, most notably his .197 ISO in a pitcher's Vero Beach stadium, LaRoche should be one of the game's top third base prospects.

    Finally, we have two short-season players: Asdrubal Cabrera of the Mariners and Francisco Hernandez of the White Sox. Dave Cameron wrote in his most recent Future Forty, "Once Felix leaves the Future Forty, he's the guy we'll get excited about." Cabrera is a middle infielder with big league defense, to go along with speed, selectivity, and a bit of pop (.155 ISO). His bat will never be fantastic, but with that defense, it won't have to be. Let's just hope that Matt Tuiasasopo, who is terrible up the middle, doesn't push Asdrubal to second.

    As for Hernandez, he's a switch-hitting catcher reminiscent of Victor Martinez. His offense and defense both were great in short-season ball, and the true test will be this year, when his body has to take 100+ games behind the plate. That's really the only thing negative I can come up with his game right now. I mean, can you find anything wrong: .326/.372/.492, 13 walks (OK, maybe a little low), 32 strikeouts in 181 at-bats?

    In conclusion, here is the list of the 15 breakout players I talked about today: Nick Markakis, Jon Lester, Chris Young, Elijah Dukes, Melky Cabrera, Alex Romero, Francisco Liriano, Francisco Rosario, Ambiorix Burgos, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Thomas Pauly, Andy LaRoche, Asdrubal Cabrera, Francisco Hernandez.

    WTNYFebruary 25, 2005
    Top 20 Sophomores
    By Bryan Smith

    The players who succeed at a young age are too often forgotten in prospect evaluation. Once they reach the Majors and become fair game for all analysts, those of us in the prospect world move on. We simply smile and say we got that one right, blessed he wasn't another Ryan Anderson or Wilson Betemit.

    While 130 at-bats and fifty innings pitched officially cuts off the "prospect" tag, few players make the Albert Pujols switch from the minors to superstardom. This leaves time for further evaluation on their tools and stats, more speculation on whether that once highly touted ceiling will still be reached. Now that we have all seen the skill sets of these players and realize that their chance of bottoming out now is just becoming another Moonlight Graham, I don’t think they should be deemed "unrankable."

    So, given that philosophy, I have ranked the top 20 Major League Sophomores below -- not by how their 2005 season will be, but instead their career. Think of this as a prospect ranking one year removed, now that we all know a little more. I should note that I also excluded anyone who was more than 25 years old this season, so Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis fans will be left disappointed.

    1. David Wright- 3B- New York Mets

    Pardon me while I start with a controversial choice -- given the talents of the rest of the top ten -- but I'm going with the total package. His OPS for a 21-year-old third baseman was fourth all-time, behind greats Eddie Mathews and Pujols, along with "what coulda been" Bob Horner. If you believe in David Pinto's Probalistic Model of Range work -- the best on defense out there, in my opinion -- then Wright was positive at the hot corner, saving two runs over the course of 69 games played. Throw in the ability to steal 20 bags a year -- and expect Willie Randolph to try -- and you've got it all.

    The major concern with David was his abandonment of the base on balls when he reached the Major League level. To his credit, he did walk 69 times last year (AA and AAA included), and his minor league stats indicate that he should be trotting towards first base more often this year. Given his well-rounded game, I think the best comparison here is Ron Santo, who wasn't walking 80 times a year until he was 24. Santo was very similar at 21, in his second year in the big leagues. No matter who he turns out to be, the Mets will not be worrying about the hot corner for another decade.

    2. Joe Mauer- C- Minnesota Twins

    My concern of Joe hitting for power is long gone now, though the only other critique he drew a year ago still exists. Only four catchers in the history of baseball with Mauer's height have recorded 100 hits in more than two seasons. Their names don't exactly belong in the who's who list of catchers: Jody Davis, Tom Haller, Johnny Edwards, Sandy Alomar Jr. Last season's injury is hopefully not a sign of things to come, as Alomar shows what can happen when you mix height and knee problems. The Twins won't let that happen. They'll make Mauer change positions (it worked for Joe Torre) if necessary. He should never worry about struggling offensively. Now that his power has arrived, we see why he was chosen first overall.

    3. Zack Greinke- SP- Kansas City Royals

    Greinke had to deal with about twice the pressure as most 20-year-old rookies, both holding the K.C. rotation on his shoulders and the continuing comparisons to Bret Saberhagen. Given all that, Zack handled himself with the perfect poise that he had been touted to have since being drafted. In his final 112 innings (19 starts worth) he amassed 86 strikeouts, answering critics with a 6.91 K/9 -- far better than Saberhagen at the same age. Furthermore, should he keep his K/BB consistent, he'll have the third best ratio ever...directly ahead of Cy Young. Expect those two names to fall in the same sentence a lot in the next 15 years.

    4. Justin Morneau- 1B- Minnesota Twins

    Really the only thing holding back Justin Morneau from 40 home runs was at-bats in 2004. His power is that real. Unfortunately, it looks like health might hold back Morneau this year. A slew of illnesses struck Morneau this offseason (chicken pox, appendix removal, lung problem), and his weight loss could result in time off. Remember when Adrian Beltre had his emergency appendectomy a few years ago? If similar, Morneau could struggle this year. As for last year, I'll blame his low average (given his minor league numbers) on a .272 BABIP, when if adjusted to the league average .300, puts his average on the plus side of .290. I still think he's extremely likely to meet his huge potential, though sickness could result in a subpar 2005.

    5. B.J. Upton- SS- Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Looking through the numbers, it is safe to say that B.J. Upton had one of the top fifteen offensive rate seasons for a 19-year-old ever. His OPS was the 12th best ever, his RC/G was eleventh. In both cases, he's eerily close to Ken Griffey Jr., which is as high praise as any young hitter can get. Unfortunately I don't think he'll stick with Griffey, his power ceiling is nowhere near that high. My guess is more along the lines of Claudell Washington with better selectivity. B.J. also suffers from his defensive shortcomings, which should probably land him at another position. No matter where Upton ends up playing, I expect him to be part of what's becoming an extremely solid Devil Ray core, one that I pray will be kept together long enough to make some noise.

    6/7. Khalil Greene- SS- San Diego Padres- 24
    6/7. Bobby Crosby- SS- Oakland Athletics- 25

    Here's an article idea I never wrote, comparing these two fantastic shortstops. Both had sensational rookie seasons, and have established track records dating back to college. Where Crosby was the 25th overall choice in the 2001 draft, Greene was picked 13th following a sensational .470/.552/.877, Golden Spikes award-winning season. Here's how they matched each other at levels since leaving college:


    Level KG AB KG OPS BC AB BC OPS
    A+ 183 .893 280 .797
    AA 229 .733 228 .778
    AAA 319 .788 465 .939
    MLB 484 .795 545 .745

    Please note that Greene had a better hitting ballpark in the California League and the Majors, but Crosby's stadium was far more hitter-friendly in both AA and the PCL. Normalized these are pretty similar hitters, both with good amounts of discipline. Greene created 5 more runs offensively, but Baseball Musings tells us that Crosby saved fourteen more runs defensively, where both are above average.

    Both of these players are fantastic talents, and should develop a nice California rivalry over the next decade. Expect nothing but solid play from these two going forward...forget the sophomore jinx.

    8. Grady Sizemore- CF- Cleveland Indians

    Care to jump on the Grady Sizemore bandwagon? In his second season, the great Willie Mays played just 34 games, resulting in 127 at-bats. During that season, Mays hit .236/.326/.409...mind you, that's a .173 Isolated Power, and .090 Isolated Discipline. In his rookie season, Sizemore had 138 at-bats, with a .246/.333/.406 line. For the mathematically challenged, that's a .160 ISO and .087 Isolated Discipline. Freaky. As if that wasn't enough, Wily Mo Pena, Johnny Damon and the great Duke Snider are other fitting comparables. He's not a lock though because Willie Crawford's numbers compare better than anyone else. There's a reason PECOTA likes Sizemore so much. Expect the young outfielder to pay dividends for Cleveland very soon.

    9. Adam LaRoche- 1B- Atlanta Braves

    Coming out of the minors, Adam LaRoche drew the usual good defense and contact praise, with the promise of lack of power. The typical J.T. Snow comparison. But playing first base last year, LaRoche gave hope that he'll be closer to Will Clark than Mark Grace, as he led the Braves with a .576 slugging after the break. A little more plate discipline would be nice, and his defense was good but not great last season. There are things to work on, but getting Gammons' support is definitely a step in the right direction. Would make a good late-round corner infield selection for you fantasy players.

    10. Alexis Rios- RF- Toronto Blue Jays

    When I started these rankings, I was a bit concerned about the .096 Isolated Power that Rios had in 2004. Alexis was one of forty-nine outfielders to have an ISO under .100 at 23 in the last sixty years, though I'm not sure whether that calmed or ignited my nerves. I was definitely relieved to find a few very good comparisons, though each offers a very different career path. First there is Bobby Bonilla, who actually had a worse age 23 season, but would hit .300/.351/.481 the next season. The no-power comp would be Willie McGee, who was faster than Rios is, but still showed very similar offensive numbers. Finally, the comp Rios wants to avoid is Al Woods, who had just one good Major League season before flaming out. Last year's popular comparison, Dave Winfield, only had a .136 ISO at 23. Once his bat determines which kind of power he'll develop, if any, locking down a comp will become much easier.

    11. Edwin Jackson- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers

    An odd one in the sense that he's not as good as he was in 2003, and not as bad as he was in 2004. His repertoire is lively, which should yield some return for the Dodgers, if not what was originally hoped. Here's what I wrote on Jackson's arsenal last September:

    In the 12-pitch inning, Jackson threw nine fastballs, showing a drastic preference for the pitch. He was between 91-95 mph on what I've described as a 'slow gun', so probably even 93-97. Despite walking one batter, Jackson showed solid control of the pitch, never missing by too much. He also showed a decent curve, with solid downward bite at 82-84 mph. It looks like he has the tendency to leave his pitches up in the zone, which is probably the reason for the three home runs allowed this season.

    12. Ryan Madson- RP- Philadelphia Phillies
    13. Ryan Wagner- RP- Cincinnati Reds

    Could two roads have diverged as far apart as these two and still be on their way to meeting? Ryan Madson was a ninth-round draft pick in 1998, a big 6-6 right-hander from California. It took him six full minor league seasons as a starter to even make the club, and his move to relief last Spring Training saw him flourish. If not for the one start the Phillies decided to give him, his ERA would have been 1.65 last year. All this coming from a guy who was more likely to be traded than becoming a Phillie in 2003.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Ryan Wagner. Given the job of succeeding Jesse Crain as closer of University of Houston, Wagner set the NCAA K/9 record in 2003 with 16.8 per nine innings. He was drafted fourteenth overall by the Reds that year, and given just nine minor league innings before his September call-up. He was dominant, and big things were expected for 2004. After an 11.25 ERA in April, he was sent down shortly after, and his ERA was just 3.50 for the rest of the season.

    Going forward, it is hard to say who will be the better reliever. Madson gets the nod for his great 2004 season, but a coin flip probably has a better chance of determining which career ends better than me.

    14. David DeJesus- OF- Kansas City Royals

    Given the hard task of succeeding Carlos Beltran, David DeJesus shown he might be the next solid Royal outfielder. He's no Johnny Damon, but he's the sort of steady player that sabermatricians will plead be kept at the top of the lineup while his .380 OBP is wasting away in the seven hole somewhere. His power is pretty non-existent with no signs of it coming soon, but given his OBP, that will be fine. Like Jeremy Reed, center might be a push for him defensively, but he'll be there in Kauffman until a better option is found. And for the record, Terrence Long is not it.

    15. Yadier Molina- C- St. Louis Cardinals

    Pardon me for violating the sabermetric code, but I agree with mainstream beliefs that St. Louis made a massive mistake allowing Mike Matheny to walk. His hitting wasn't great, but his steady defense and overall presence will be missed. Ken Rosenthal noted in a column recently that it's dangerous for a World Series-contending team to run a 22-year-old catcher out there. The last team to do so and win was the 1981 Dodgers, with Mike Scioscia behind the plate. What's funny, is just how similar the two profiled at 21 (rate stats are vs. league, by ratio):

    Name	  AVG	 OBP	SLG	 AB
    Molina     99	  96	 81	135
    Scioscia   95	  95	 85	134

    That's extraordinarily close, especially when you factor in similar body types and low strikeout rates (in the minors for Molina). The only difference is the side of the plate they bat on, but I think the Cardinals will be pleased with the right-handed Mike Scoscia. And who knows, maybe get a successor for Tony La Russa in the process.

    16. Erik Bedard- SP- Baltimore Orioles

    Chalk up another victory for medical science, as after surgery, Bedard has regained most of his good stuff. The Orioles have actually found a pitcher they can't ruin, congratulations to them. Bedard still must develop further control if he is going to be an effective pitcher, and there were obvious signs of endurance problems in 2004. Strength and control could make Bedard a top notch player, but I'm also a little leary of the yellow light that Will Carroll issued. He's not a sure bet by any means, but if treated correctly, Bedard could be special.

    17. Yhency Brazoban- RP- Los Angeles Dodgers
    18. Chin-Hui Tsao- RP- Colorado Rockies

    Another two relievers paired together, and again, they come with different stories. Tsao has been followed since the day he signed with the Rockies - a hero in his native Taiwan - Chin-Hui looked like he'd be a great starter until injuries set their course on his arm. It looks as if Tsao will replace Shawn Chacon in the closer role, and likely will be fantastic there. Another good fantasy idea.

    As for Brazoban, he was an under-the-radar type that went in the Jeff Weaver deal from the Yankees. He'll set-up Eric Gagne well this year, though probably not doing quite the job that Guillermo Mota did. This is more due to control problems than anything else, although those issues did not plague him at Chavez Ravine last season. I'm not sure pitching in winter ball was the best idea for him, or he could fall to the same fate that Tsao has.

    For the record, Brazoban gets the call over Chin-Hui pretty much only because of the stadiums they pitch in. Talk about extremes.

    19. Noah Lowry- SP- San Francisco Giants

    I admittedly didn't know a lot about Lowry before this season, and still don't. His numbers look good, and he's a southpaw in a pitcher's park, both of which bode quite well for his future. But my lack of experience with his stuff went me asking around. First, to Grant at McCovey Chronicles:

    ...my favorite thing to see from a young pitcher is the ability to make a hitter look like an idiot...Lowry's changeup, at its best, is a pitch that will do that. From what the folks at Baseball America have written, it is a pitch that made incredible strides just last year. It is deceptive coming out of the hand, and just dies at the perfect time.

    It appears as though Lowry has a limited ceiling, one that he will be tapping into the next few years. He'll be a solid rotation candidate for the Giants, who have had more failures developing pitchers than success stories.

    20. David Bush- SP- Toronto Blue Jays

    Like Lowry, Bush is another player that actually played better in the Major Leagues than he had in AAA. It's hard to make a decision on these players, the ones that you know do not have the stuff to be a frontline starter. Bush is almost guaranteed a career in starting following a very solid season, but he'll never be more than a third starter. His assortment of pitchers are all solid, but he needs to start pitching better to left-handed batters. If corrected, the Jays found a steady innings-eater to slot somewhere behind Roy Halladay.

  • Note: For reasons of not developing carpal tunnel on a single article, this list had to be cut off at twenty. There were five more players that just missed, all garnering consideration. Alphabetically: Frank Francisco, Gabe Gross, Scott Hairston, Matt Holliday, Matt Riley.

    While I'm sure the next season will make as much a difference on ranking these players as this season did, I believe it's important to continually evaluate the prospects we cover. John Sickels is running "Young Pitchers Week" at his site, and it comes as no surprise that he is showing belief in the same philosophy.

    Finally, can I get a final round of applause for my partner's compilation of the first series here at Baseball Analysts? Job well done, Rich.

  • WTNYFebruary 16, 2005
    Back in the Swing of Things
    By Bryan Smith

    Hello friends, I deeply apologize for my recent absence. I blame real life completely, that and some lack of motivation with baseball at a lull for just a few more days. I'm back, and while my posting schedule is going to be a bit irregular with a lot of work hitting me hard, I shouldn't be too far removed from normal. I promise to finish the rest of my rookies report soon, and get those depth charts out to those of you that e-mailed me. Don't forget, you're all saved in my Yahoo address book, I just plan on getting all those e-mails out together. Be patient with me, guys.

    So, I thought I'd catch everybody up on what happened since we last spoke.

    - First and foremost, let me point out to the other minor league outlets on the web. First of all, tons of congrats are in order for former ESPN writer John Sickels, who now has his own blog over at minorleagueball.com. It has been up for just a few days and looks like it will be a fantastic community, and hopefully I can catch up with John at some point. Also worth noting is Baseball Prospectus, who have begun hinting at who will be in their top 50.

    - Brad Dowdy, WTNY favorite and the skilled writer of No Pepper is expanding his horizons, and will be writing about the minors over at Rotojunkie. Congrats Brad! And finally, if you missed the Baseball America top tens, they are now complete. BA is definitely the best, and without their voice starting me on this topic, I wouldn't be here.

    - The largest story of the past couple weeks have been injuries to a few pitchers in my top 75. First there was Cole Hamels, who pulled a mixture of Kevin Brown and Matt Bush, getting into a fight and breaking his hand. He'll be out for a couple months as the bone heals, and this coupled with a reportedly weak work ethic has really lost Hamels some points in this organization. He's still an unbelievable talent, and this injury won't do anything in the long run, but now we see why immaturity has docked him down in the past.

    - It appears that this spring will have a curse to all disgruntled southpaw prospects, as next was Greg Miller going down. Jon Weisman attacked this issue over at Dodger Thoughts, where we heard why the shoulder surgery might be a good thing, and a timetable for his return. In retrospect I was probably a little too bullish on Miller in my rankings, and would likely slide him far closer to Chuck Tiffany in retrospect.

    - And our final southpaw to go down, with the story being broke by Dave Cameron, is Travis Blackley. I loved Travis as a prospect before the 2004 season, but there isn't a person in the country who has not soured on him by now. He was great at the beginning of the season, then he was called up to the Majors, and everything went downhill from there. Labrums aren't an end-all injury anymore, but Will has pointed out that the success rate is not in favor of Blackley's left shoulder. Knock on wood for Travis today.

    - Correct me if I�m wrong, but I think that's it for prospect injuries in recent weeks. Moving on to a more positive story, but unfortunately one that I lost the link for, the Braves have decided to end their Andy Marte to the outfield experiment before it starts. It could still happen from what I've heard, but we can now place Andy in Richmond at season�s beginning. For more Braves stuff, check out this article from Rome, their low-A affiliate, which talks about honorable mention Jarrod Saltalmacchia not getting moved up to high-A. What?!?

    That's all for now guys. I still owe you a second rookie report and another piece on the '04 draft, and that will happen in good time. Thanks for staying patient.

    WTNYFebruary 08, 2005
    A.M. Race (Vol. 1)
    By Bryan Smith

    This June, for the first time since the draft's implementation in 1965, the draft order will be decided by the finish in the 2004 standings, worst to first. This leaves the Arizona Diamondbacks on the board with all the options, notably the presumed top choice Justin Upton. In previous years the pick would have gone to the Kansas City Royals, the worst American League team, because the National League received the top overall choice last draft.

    What this does is make the race to the bottom of the standings a little more important. While the draft isn't a notable enough event for this to get a lot of recognition, but giving the Majors' worst city something to hold their hat on isn't a bad idea. This idea is one of the reasons the NFL claims to have more parity than Major League Baseball. We still have those $200 million payrolls to worry about, but it's a baby step nonetheless.

    Anyway, in tune with the title of this site, I want to begin looking at the 2006 draft. In this piece we'll look at the teams that should 'battle' for top (bottom?) spot, or what I'll call the 'Andrew Miller race.' But first, you�ll meet (or if you subscribe to Baseball America, be re-introduced to) the man behind the name.

    My presumed top pick in 2006, Andrew Miller is a sophomore this year at the University of North Carolina. At 6-6, Miller possesses what his school calls a '94+ mph fastball� and his teammate detailed as 'one of the nastiest sliders in college baseball.' Despite near-promises of attending college prior to the 2003 draft, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays spent their third-round pick on Miller, hoping to land Florida's top high school prospect with a big offer. They didn't, and the southpaw would later be named by Baseball America as the top prospect in the Cape Cod League, on the second-team Freshman All-American team, and the preseason ACC Freshman of the Year.

    In a close race with his teammate, Miller would lose out the official ACC Freshman of the Year to Daniel Bard. While his right-handed counterpart was the Friday pitcher for the team and won two more games, I really believe that Miller should have won the award. Miller's ERA was lower (2.93 to 3.88), he had far more strikeouts (88 to 68) and thirty less hits allowed (64 to 94) in just six less innings (89 to 95). The only peripheral number that Bard was clearly superior was in the walks category, where he issued thirty-one to Andrew's 48.

    That final number represents the Achilles heel of Miller's game: control. In the Cape Cod League, which he dominated, Miller would lead the league with 26 walks in 40 innings. The stuff is there, the refinement is lacking. He would show his upside in seven of his eighteen appearances, allowing a 2.18 ERA in 33 innings. So if he puts it together - watch out.

    Another problem that has been associated with Miller is consistency, whether it's the big inning or start-to-start. The latter appeared to be healed as the season went on, as the two halves of his seasons were quite different. In his first nine appearances, Miller had a 3.64 ERA (5.57 RA!), 7.50 H/9, 5.36 W/9 and 8.36 K/9. Things then infinitely improved in his final nine appearances, where his ERA lowered 37% to 2.30 (2.68 RA), the H/9 down 26% to 5.55, the K/9 up to 9.38, and his BB/9 encouragingly went down to 4.40. Should his 2005 season be this good, expect Miller to take the 'Friday Night Pitcher' status from Bard during their junior seasons.

    But while Miller was sensational in the Cape Cod League, his half split there was geared towards a great first half. He began the season with a twelve strikeout masterpiece, and only allowed four earned runs in his first four starts, spanning 27.1 innings. He walked eleven, struck out 29, and allowed only ten hits. The wheels fell off the truck in his final three games, with a catastrophic 15 walks in just 12.2 innings. I wouldn't worry too much about this though, Miller will likely benefit from the six months and come back with better control.

    I'm not sure if Miller is capable of the sophomore season that Jeff Niemann had in 2003, but I wouldn't put it past him. He doesn't have the polish that a lot of college pitchers do, but he has more upside than any in recent memory. At this point, only an arm injury will prevent Miller from one day contributing to the Major League scene. With this resume all before he turns twenty, I expect Andrew to be the first pick of the 2006 draft.


    Now the question is, who will have this pick? While most preseason predictions will cover division winners as well as the playoffs, I think it's appropriate for me to keep track of the 'Andrew Miller race.' For now, the main contenders, ranked in order of who I deem most likely to win:

    Kansas City Royals: Preseason, this is the worst team in baseball. The club has one hitter that will contribute any power (Sweeney), and is preventing a second (Pickering) from entering the lineup. The rotation is made of misfits other than Zack Greinke, and the bullpen could be anywhere between serviceable and awful. And, there really isn't a lot stopping Allard Baird from trading it all at the deadline.

    Pittsburgh Pirates: Another team lacking a lot of upside. The Reds and Brewers are both improved teams, and the Pirates are now far worse than anyone else in the division. I don't expect Kip Wells, a viable second starter, to last long with the team, leaving them just with Oliver Perez. The offense will be quite poor, though I guess Craig Wilson is everything (and more?) that Mike Sweeney is at this point. The bullpen should be fine and the rest of the rotation good enough to present them from losing 100 games, but not 90.

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Lou Piniella always has this team make some little, 'we're for real' run in the early going, and then they slowly trot back towards mediocrity. They might never leave that title this year, as the team starts more and more to build towards the future. If things break right I could see them leaving the cellar, but that would take a lot of crossed fingers. A goal of 70 wins is just not the right way to run a franchise, nor is doing anything to prevent full-out rebuilding mode. Fire Chuck Lamar!

    Second-Tier Long shots: Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers

    An interesting spin could be if Miller asks for a lot of money, and the Royals, Pirates and D-Rays are all scared away. Then the long shots really will have a big difference in this race. Kansas City's choice in the two-hole this year (Gordon or Pelfrey are the best options, IMO) will tell us a lot on whether they would forego Miller, likely the best talent of that draft, for a cheaper option.

    But that�s just another flaw of the Major League draft. Maybe the next 'Free ___' movement can be geared at the draft? For now, I'll just take the revised draft order, and wait 'til next year on Andrew Miller. At least the players give us optimism.

    Note: An unexpected weekend trip delayed my second depth charts installment, which I hope to be up some time this week. And for all those who e-mailed asking to see all the depth charts, I believe you misunderstood me. I'm happy to share team-specific requests, just not everything. Thanks for your understanding.

    WTNYJanuary 31, 2005
    More Rookie Looks
    By Bryan Smith

    Earlier this winter, I looked at some of the rookies that we could see playing during the 2005 season. Now that rosters are beginning to be filled, I thought I?d take a look to see what competition rookies and Rule 5 picks will be facing in Spring Training.

    Over the weekend, I completed some depth charts for the projected 25-man rosters of each team in the AL Central, West and NL East divisions. Don?t ask me why I chose these three, it was a bit spontaneous, as to not follow the standard East-Central-West format.

    I won?t list each team?s projected 25-man, if you want those, shoot me an e-mail (bsmithwtny@yahoo.com). Instead, for each team I?ll talk about who I see possibly contributing?in April. This is just a look at who will be making the team out of Arizona/Florida, as I?m sure the season will give me enough time to speculate about the rest.

    To keep my random theme going, here?s the 14 teams I?ve looked at, in no particular order?

    Chicago White Sox

    Huh, picked the hometown team first. Anyway, the White Sox are pretty set in their roster, one with little chance of a rookie breaking. The most obvious is Tadahito Iguchi, who by MLB rules, should be considered a rookie despite years of professional experience. His presence has made Willie Harris quite discontent, and if his wish to exit the organization is fulfilled, you could see Wilson Valdez make the team. Acquired from Florida, Valdez was once upon a time an Ozzie Guillen reclamation project, so the ties are there for the two to re-join on the South Side.

    Detroit Tigers

    Despite an organization with not a lot of promise, the Tigers won?t be featuring too many rookies in 2005. A head-on battle during Spring Training will be Alex Sanchez against Curtis Granderson, with the likely outcome being sending their top prospect to AAA for some seasoning. His breakout in AA was likely park-related, so seeing just how real of a prospect he is could be of some help. Ryan Raburn has an outside chance at the second base job, but that would only be if Fernando Vina starts the year on the DL and Alan Trammell prefers Omar Infante on the bench. You could see a rookie reliever nab the bullpen?s last spot, though an ex-prospect like Franklyn German or ex-Rule 5 pick like Matt Roney is more likely.

    Oakland Athletics

    It?s very possible that the Rookie of the Year race will be won and lost in Oakland. Nick Swisher will probably be one of the favorites, though until Eric Byrnes is traded, Swisher is not completely assured of consistent playing time. Either is Dan Johnson, especially after Billy Beane told Athletics Nation that the first base job is Scott Hatteberg?s to lose. A bit of loyalty over common sense from Mr. Beane?

    A re-built rotation will likely have two rookies in Joe Blanton and Dan Meyer, both solid if unspectacular prospects. Neither will draw the media praise of a Dontrelle Willis, but both should be more consistent. And again, I?m bound by Major League Baseball rules to mention Keiichu Yabu, who will be fighting for both a spot in the rotation and bullpen. One of his competitors in the ?pen will be Tyler Johnson, a Rule 5 pick who?s hope of staying with the team likely resides in Ricardo Rincon?s left arm health.

    Florida Marlins

    A massive lack of depth in Florida will be the only hope for a lot of rookies to stick in south beach, as the Marlins will be giving no rookies extended playing time. Josh Willingham, who?s MLEs speak quite highly of what he could bring, will be battling with Matt Treanor (typical back-up catcher) for that spot. Chris Aguila, a no-namer, has a chance at the last bench spot, with little competition at this point. Cub fans will not be pleased to hear that Luke Hagerty pretty much has a ? chance of making the team, only needing to overcome battles with Ben Howard, Tim Spooneybarger and Justin Wayne for the final spot.

    Washington Nationals

    While we once thought there could be loads of rookies on this team, Jim Bowden has slowly compiled a veteran-heavy team. Rule 5 picks Tony Blanco and Ty Godwin will battle Wil Cordero and Endy Chavez respectively, for spots, and both are likely going to come up losers. Ryan Church, sort of a poor man?s Jason Bay, will take on J.J. Davis for a bench spot, and could become the starter if Nick Johnson gets hurt in Spring Training, or Brad Wilkerson becomes a Cub. In the bullpen, no-names Gary Majewski and Francis Beltran could make the team, but are ninth and tenth on my depth chart at this point.

    Texas Rangers

    Yuck, this team is definitely headed down the 2004 Kansas City Royals path of destruction. Adrian Gonzalez will battle with David Delucci for the Designated Hitter spot, with a loss sending him back to AAA?again. After signing a three-year contract to stay away from the Sacramento Kings, expect 6-10 Chris Young to get a good number of starts in Arlington. He doesn?t have a ton of upside, but this team will take 5th starter numbers if they can find it. And if things bounce right in Spring Training, and I can assure you they won?t, real prospects Ian Kinsler or John Hudgins could open in Dallas.

    New York Mets

    Unfortunately, the Mets decided to call up David Wright early enough in the 2004 season to expel him of rookie status, eliminating the 2005 favorite from competition. They are now fully prepared to add no one to the argument now, with another pitcher from Japan (though he's Korean), Dae Sung Koo, the best of the bunch. Also, I believe Heath Bell will make the team after a dazzling 25 innings last year, and he?ll be a very solid reliever on a team with little in that department.

    Minnesota Twins

    While Baseball America is going against the grain ranking Joe Mauer in their prospect rankings this winter, MLB rules will not allow him to be up for Rookie of the Year. Instead, the Twins will let Jesse Crain try and win the award, though they won?t be giving him the sexy stat that BBWAA writers love: saves. Terry Tiffee is behind both Michael Cuddyer and Eric Munson for 3B at-bats, and Mike Ryan has the same David v. Goliath chance of making the roster. Ryan Rowland-Smith, the club?s Rule 5 pick, actually has a hope of opening in Minnesota. He?ll need either Joe Mays or Terry Mulholland to open the season on the DL, and then beat out C.J. Nitkowski for the final spot. Neither is asking too much, is it?

    Atlanta Braves

    So much has been made as to whether Andy Marte or Jeff Francoeur will open the season with the Braves, but I don?t think that will happen. Marte will spend Spring Training learning the left field position, and only not report to Richmond should Brian Jordan or Raul Mondesi not be ready, and the Braves not choosing Ryan Langerhans to man the spot. I think the rookie with the best chance is Kyle Davies, who really only needs a Horacio Ramirez re-injury at this point, and really has the Braves? front office approval. Finally, Roman Colon is another reliever with under the right amount of innings, so he can still qualify for ROY voting. He?ll get no support there, though he?ll probably earn some Bobby Cox trust this year.

    Kansas City Royals

    Meet the American League?s worst team. The most exciting thing in Kansas City this year will be Zack Greinke, as he moves to his second year of experience as the Royals most hyped player in recent memory. He?ll likely help cloud the emergence of Mark Teahen, who only really needs to overcome Chris Truby and Tony Graffanino to win the third base job. Given the support he has from Royal brass, I don?t think that should be an issue. Besides him, you?re looking at the back-up catcher (Paul Phillips or Mike Tonis) and fifth starter spot (Denny Bautista, though not likely) being the most likely sources. Andy Sisco has a chance of staying, and it depends on Tony Pena?s decision to carry 11 or 12 pitchers, and his ability to be in the top two of the Shawn Camp, D.J. Carrasco, Dennis Tankersley, Sisco foursome.

    Cleveland Indians

    Johnny Peralta and Brandon Phillips might seem like rookies, so might Grady Sizemore, but none will garner votes for Rookie of the Year. I can honestly say that I don?t think any Indian will, barring unforeseen circumstances. Ryan Garko has an outside chance if there?s an injury, and there are probably some pitchers who could make it, but remember, Matt Miller, Chad Zerbe, Cliff Bartosh and Denny Stark are probably all on the outside looking in at this point.

    Anaheim Angels

    Dallas McPherson. He has believers, and no real contender for the third base spot. He has the Jeremy Burnitz skillset that will attract voters, and should be considered one of the more likely ROY winners. He could have some competition in his own organization, but both Casey Kotchman and Kendry Morales are stretches at this point. I think you?ll see Kotchman in AAA and Morales in the Texas League to open the year, and the former forcing Bill Stonemann?s hand at the deadline. Will he have Terry Ryan?s vision, and trade Darin Erstad, or Larry Beinfest?s stubbornness, and deal Kotchman? Time will tell.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    This will finally be Chase Utley?s year for consistent playing time, perfectly coinciding with his exit from rookie status. Marlon Byrd has one of those problems, though Kenny Lofton?s entrance will likely send Byrd to Scranton. The 25th man spot could be a battle between Jose Offerman and a pair of rookies, the heralded Ryan Howard and Rule 5 pick Shane Victorino, with Howard really only making it should Thome be injury-plagued. Gavin Floyd is really the best bet, but he?ll still need Padilla or Wolf to be injured, or to beat Brett Myers should he want a real ROY chance.

    Seattle Mariners

    After such a good September call-up, you have to expect the Mariners to find a way for Jeremy Reed to get playing time. My guess is that Randy Winn will become the 4th outfielder, with Reed and Ibanez the two getting consistent playing time in center and left, respectively. The story of the spring could be the team?s last rotation spot, where Felix Hernandez is set to battle with Aaron Sele and Gil Meche. Team officials are saying that Hernandez will not make the team, but with a good enough spring, anything is possible. Clint Nageotte and Travis Blackley have shots at the team, but both are probably best served with a little more AAA seasoning.

    That?s all for today. Next Monday I?ll finish this mini-series, followed by some Vegas-odds for the ROY crowns.

    WTNYJanuary 26, 2005
    WTNY 75: Mailbag Edition
    By Bryan Smith

    Bryan, where do you see Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew fall on your top 75 list? Would they even make it based on their scout reports?

    I still plan on running a piece on players that did not get in a full season last year, but since Weaver and Drew remain unsigned, I?ll answer them special and not include them in the article. In fact, let?s expand this question to touching on recently-signed but not-yet-played Phillip Humber, Justin Verlander and Jeff Niemann as well.

    My knowledge of these players mostly stems from two years worth of the College World Series, but thanks to Rich Lederer, I feel like I have a handle on Weaver more than anyone else. I have argued with Rich a lot about Weaver?s ceiling, which will be dependent on his fastball velocity and strength of his slider. Control is not a problem at all for Jered, and he could probably immediately step in and have some of the best on my top 75. If pressed I would likely put Weaver somewhere in the 25-30 range, between Gavin Floyd and John Danks.

    Stephen Drew is probably the largest question mark to sign, given his brother?s history and the Diamondbacks? depth at shortstop (especially when Justin Upton joins). I don?t think the latter should hold up negotiations, but it gives Arizona a viable excuse should they pass on Drew?s $5M+ price tag. If signed, Drew should probably be moved to centerfield, though I think second base would work as well. His plate discipline is very sound, and his bat is as polished as they come. My guess would be that his ceiling is about 25 home runs, but given his position and solid contact skills, that would work. Drew would likely slot in right in front of organization-mate Sergio Santos, though still third in the Arizona prospect lists.

    As for the Rice pitchers, I am quite high on Jeff Niemann, and still need some convincing on Humber. Niemann was the rage as a sophomore when Rice won the CWS, showing stuff that few see in college baseball. His ceiling is probably higher than anyone in the draft, but it?s the likelihood to reach that ceiling that worries me. Given his huge frame, I think Niemann should at least end up a reliever if his career curtails, where he could throw a high-90s fastball with consistency. Either way, this was a great pick by the Devil Rays, and Niemann could be anywhere between 40-50, definitely in front of Denny Bautista and right near the status of Merkin Valdez and Angel Guzman.

    Humber and Verlander both need to show me a bit more, as I?m not convinced either will be a great Major League player. Humber didn?t show much more than #3-5 potential to me, and Verlander?s numbers make him a questionable pick. Humber would likely be in the Mike Hinckley range, while Verlander is right around Jon Papelbon at about #70. But I?ve failed at recognizing the skills of draft picks before, so make sure to take my comments with a large dose of salt.

    Why do you say, "Kazmir will not be an ace, I think that ceiling prediction is a bit high?? I haven't heard anything like that before. Most of what I've seen about Kazmir says that he'll be an ace if his arm doesn't explode or move him to the bullpen.

    Well, I think you missed the big third ?if,? the one that will most greatly prevent him from acedom. And that, is the mystery of the third pitch. At some point, I believe that competition catches up with the player that uses just two pitches, and finds a way to torch them. Unless his appearances come in one-inning stints, when two solid pitches have proven to be acceptable.

    At this point, pitching coach has a lot on his shoulders, much more than his 20-year-old southpaw. Showing the change to hitters, even at an irregular basis, will be important to his success. There is no questioning Scott?s talent, look at where I ranked him, he?s just at a higher percentage to move to the bullpen than the pitchers ahead of him. No crime in that.

    I think [Casey] Kotchman is a bit of a lost prospect at this point. Is he Sean Casey or Todd Helton?

    That?s the million dollar question, isn?t it? Actually, either way, I think the Angels would be happy. Or maybe not the Angels, maybe whatever team they trade him to. It?s hard to see the Angels resolving their glut at first base by moving Darin Erstad, a 2004 Gold Glove winner, and the love of Mike Scioscia?s heart. Instead, Kotchman will be resigned this season to either landing in some Juan Rivera/Tim Salmon platoon in the DH spot, or to continue raking in the Pacific Coast League. You think Dan Johnson and he are friends?

    Anyway, on to your question of comparison. His numbers look pretty similar to Helton?s, my reservations about Kotchman?s power developing make him sound like Casey (for both, I linked to their Baseball Cube account in the question). If you want more possible comparisons, people have thrown out both Will Clark and Mark Grace in the past, but still, I don?t find any of those to be quite perfect. One thing I look for in a comparison is what type of school the player was drafted from, college or high school. All four veteran players were collegiate athletes, while Kotchman started pro ball in his teens.

    So, I think I?ve found the comp that I?m happy with, despite not having his minor league numbers on hand: Keith Hernandez. Both struggled as 21-year-olds in the Majors in a little over 100 at-bats, and come with good defensive reports. Keith started his greater-than-100 OPS+ streak the next year (which I think Kotchman could do), and did not stop until he was 35: fourteen straight years. His peak years, ages 25-27, all included 140 OPS+ years, a number Eric Chavez has yet to approach.

    The only problem with this is that Casey doesn?t yet have the plate discipline that Hernandez had, only totaling 31 walks all season long. If the Angels preach this, then Kotchman can be like Hernandez, if not, then I?m not sure.

    Petit you either love him or hate him. But still, if you're taking him for sabermetrics, how could you rank McCarthy that far behind?

    Brandon McCarthy is an extremely odd prospect, because his season was going solid in low-A, and then he tore up the Carolina League, and regressed back when reaching the Southern League. My belief is that Brandon?s H/9s in the low-A and AA (7.7 and 8.0, respectively) are more indicative of his talent than his number in high-A. That was, unless I?m mistaken, probably a case of a pitcher in the zone for awhile. We can try to break everything down to a set of numbers, but forgetting the mental aspect of a 20-year-old is unfair. McCarthy was in the zone, pitching better than his skill set calls for, but was more on par at other times.

    Petit, on the other hand, entered this season with what his catchers saw (link?) was improved control. He was virtually the same all season, taking a reasonable hit upon each promotion, especially in his twelve Eastern League innings. Still, everything was on the same page, even during his great pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League. He won?t be this good in the Majors, but he should have some success. A friend of mine compared him to Livan Hernandez, and while the comp has imperfections, namely Yusmeiro?s superior control, it?s not bad.

    The ?love or hate him? arguments with these two players would get us into the scouts v. stats argument, and since we must consider both sides, I think both of these players have a higher ?flame-out? chance than a lot of pitchers. But such solid peripherals are hard to ignore, and I don?t think either will ever be anything worse than a middle reliever. Best guess is 3-5 starter with a lot of innings.

    What makes Meyer #28 and [John] Maine not even an honorable mention?

    John was just off the honorable mention, mostly due to a less-than-great performance in AAA. I want you all to realize that just because someone was left off my top 100, it?s not that I didn?t see them, or don?t like them. Simply put, John Maine is just not one of the 100 players I think will be best in the minor leagues. If he?s 101, then he?ll be a millionaire. Lots of times over.

    With that being said, the question pertains to Meyer and Maine. To me, Meyer has the lead in various aspects. The top reason is his ceiling is definitely higher, given his aptitude to throw four pitches for strikes, which he did when I watched him as a September call-up. He?s extremely polished, never having struggled at any level, and has better control than Maine. Meyer is also left-handed, and while I think it?s pretty silly to cite that as a big advantage, it definitely helps you get noticed more.

    John Maine is going to pitch in the Majors with the Orioles, just not particularly well. He should be a back-end starter for sure, and from what I saw, does not have the stuff to be much more. If I were you, I would call the front office and complain that you don?t still have the guy featured in the next question?

    I don't understand what you meant when you said, "citing maturity issues as the one problem that will likely hold [Elijah Dukes] back. I don?t buy it." Don't buy what? That he has those type of problems? Or that those type of problems can keep someone from reaching their potential?

    This question was answered via e-mail, but I thought it would be pertinent to print the answers I sent:


    What I meant by that statement on Dukes is not me challenging whether maturity issues exist, but rather that those issues will hold him back. I also read that he was much improved in the California League, which is where my statement stems from. From what it sounds like we see pretty much eye-to-eye here, that Dukes is an amazing talent, and only a major relapse of past issues will stop him at this point. That or him proving he's more the low-A player than the CL version.

    I still have more questions to answer, so expect a second mailbag soon.

    WTNYJanuary 25, 2005
    Drained
    By Bryan Smith

    Friends, thank you for giving WTNY the most satisfying two weeks of my short-lived writing career. Prospect lists are what do it for people, when prospect writers get their due. Or, at least I like to think so.

    Not a lot to contribute today. I have a mailbag in process (any more questions, leave in comments), an article on short-season players, and even an extended honorable mention. The fun never stops here, well, after today I guess.

    As I try and catch up on the little sleep I ever get, you tell me: who are your top 10 prospects? Why do the minor leagues interest you? What do you want to know more about in the minors?

    WTNYJanuary 24, 2005
    The WTNY Top 5
    By Bryan Smith

    5. Dallas McPherson- 3B- Anaheim Angels- 24

    In the last two seasons, Dallas McPherson has not given us a lot of reason to doubt him. Over the four minor league stints he?s had at levels in two years (CL, Texas, Texas again, PCL), never has he hit below .300. Only once was the OBP below .400, the slugging under .600, and the OPS not at 1.000. In fact, 100 at-bats in AA in 2003, his 2002 Midwest League performance, and his Freshman year at the Citadel were the only times since high school he?s been below 1.000. Doubting his bat at this point is silly.

    But while you would call his numbers unprecedented, there are a few concerns with Dallas. First of all, Anaheim has some great hitter?s parks between low-A and the Majors, which no doubt helped Dallas in both 2003 and 2004. So even though his slugging percentages have been right around what Adam Dunn?s were in 2001, they probably will be a bit lower. Still, the two profile to be similar players, as long as McPherson doesn?t abandon the walk.

    And abandon it he did when reaching AAA last year, as he walked just 23 times in 259 at-bats. This will not satisfy the Angels, who are looking for a ceiling around .300/.400/.600 from their new third basemen. Getting that back on track should be both the organization and Dallas? goal for the spring, since McPherson has big shoes to fill in Troy Glaus.

    Mike Scioscia is going to have to accept a few things about his third basemen this year. First of all, he?s going to strikeout?a lot. Second, his defense is a far cry from what Troy Glaus offered in his prime, and signiciantly closer to Chone Figgins? offerings in the playoffs. And third, that Dallas is going to tear the cover off the ball, making the Angels decision to let Glaus go the right one.

    4. Adam Miller- SP- Cleveland Indians- 20

    Miller was what a lot of first-round picks have been over the years: Texan high schooler with a big arm. But unlike Colt Griffins of summer?s past, Miller combined power and control into a dominating combination in 2004. As we watch bonus baby failure after failure, we have to appreciate the findings made by a Mark Shapiro or Logan White.

    A lot can be said for ? considering the length of a first full season ? a good start and a good finish. This is what Miller did in 2004, as we compare his beginning and end with his middle:

    Time	GS	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	HR
    B+E	16	85.2	53	24	98	1.58	2
    MID	13	61.0	62	21	68	4.28	6
    
    I should note that this includes the Carolina League playoffs, where against his best competition, he dominated. To me, the B+E line is most reminiscent of the way in which Jeff Francis closed out his 2003 season, prompting his inclusion in my 2004 preseason top fifty. And needless to say, that also happened in the Carolina League. The rest, in Francis? case, is history.

    But this is a case where statistics alone did not contribute to Miller?s placement. While his control is evident in his numbers, the degree of his power is not. We also saw that in the article I linked to this weekend, Miller hit 101 mph on the gun this year, which is about 8 mph faster than it was upon being drafted.

    There was a lot of thinking that went into my selection of the game?s second-best pitching prospect, but I have landed on Miller. Not only did he have one of the best 2004s of any pitcher, but his numbers, youth and projectability hint that there is more to come.

    3. Andy Marte- 3B- Atlanta Braves- 21

    For his time in the Braves organization, Marte has been an extremely consistent player. His slugging percentages, when weighing in Myrtle Beach?s horrible park factor, become fairly even. His on-base percentage has stayed consistent the last two years, and his yearly averages aren?t too far from each other. Marte is as consistent as they come, likely showing us what kind of player he profiles to be in the Majors. His average will likely be around .280, and his slugging has a ceiling in the .500s.

    The question in my mind, is what about his OBP. If you split his season into two halves, pre-injury and post-injury (they come within 15 at-bats of eachother), he?s still consistent. His average in the first half was .264, and then .274 in the second half. His slugging went from .527 to .522. The big difference? His OBPs (estimated, but wrong by a few hundredths if anything), as in the first half it was just .335, and in the second .394. Where his OBP heads in the future will decide how good a player he becomes.

    Everyone cites Miguel Cabrera as a comp to Marte, even John Scheurholz, but I don?t see it. Cabrera was simply a bit more raw than Marte at the same ages, never seeing the doubles go over the fence in the minors like Andy did in 2004, and never walking as much. Marte does not have Miguel?s upside, which is not a fault on him, just me saying that I don?t think the huge breakout season that has been predicted again and again will happen. Marte should stay extremely solid, and end up more like Carlos Lee (an ex-3B) than Cabrera.

    The big question with Andy will be his position, now that Scheurholz has committed to keeping Chipper at third. This is a decision I disagree with, since I think Marte is a better third basemen than Jones, and has less experience in the outfield than him. But, it?s hard to go against this organization?s decisions, and I think you?ll see Andy split time at the hot corner and left field this year. In 2006, you should be seeing a Marte-Jones-Francoeur outfield.

    In conclusion, Marte is an extremely great talent destined for many an All-Star game. He is a streaky player that always ends up with similar numbers. What will change Marte from solid to great will be his walks, and his consistency in selectivity. Either way, he?ll make his presence felt?soon.

    2. Felix Hernandez- SP- Seattle Mariners- 19

    In twenty years, when I look back on this list, I see myself thinking only two things about my selection of Felix as second overall. Furious for not choosing him first, or nodding that while TINSTAPP is extreme, it has a good point. This is to say that the only thing holding back Hernandez from greatness is a right arm that will throw about 400 professional innings before turning 20.

    There?s nothing to dislike about Hernandez stuff-wise. From watching him in the Futures Game, I can tell you that he throws a fastball as well as anyone in the minors, and his curve would already be one of the 15 or so best in the Major Leagues. Furthermore, Jim Callis of Baseball America (no link, sorry) reported that Felix has a slider that has yet to be debuted. With that, Felix could take off even more, reaching unprecedented levels if his arm doesn?t fall off.

    What impressed me most this season was King Felix?s (as coined by U.S.S. Mariner) ability to adjust to a level. In his first nine California League starts, Felix had a 3.59 ERA, 48 hits in 47.2 innings with 53 strikeouts, 14 walks, and five home runs allowed. In his last seven: 1.61 ERA, 37 hits in 50.1 innings, 61 strikeouts, twelve walks and zero homers. This works for the Texas League too, his first four AA starts: 4.79 ERA, 21 hits in 20.2 innings, nineteen strikeouts, nine walks and three home runs. And in his last six, Felix had a 2.45 ERA, allowing just 26 hits in 36.2 innings with thirty-nine strikeouts, twelve walks and zero home runs. That, my friends, is impressive.

    Equally impressive is Seattle?s decision to not allow Felix to pitch in the Venezuelan League this winter. They realize the talent they have, and are not going to risk his right arm after numerous problems with that in the organization. The fifth starter spot in Seattle is wide-open, and if Felix doesn?t grab it in Spring Training, he should have it before the All-Star Break. The marketing potential of Ichiro and Felix in the future likely makes that Mariner department tickle, as they should be the top two in that regard in the game soon.

    1. Delmon Young- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- 19

    Young didn?t hit for the power that Ian Stewart did. He didn?t hit for the average that Jason Kubel had at much higher levels. And he definitely does not have the polish at the plate we see from Casey Kotchman. But for me, there was little thought in choosing who to crown my 2005 preseason top prospect.

    Tampa Bay has begun to witness the flux of young studs in this organization, both with the September call-up of the aforementioned Scott Kazmir, and my midseason top prospect, B.J. Upton. But unlike the talented shortstop, there is no ceiling for Young?s offensive potential. We have all heard the Albert Belle comparison, but in my mind, Delmon is far the better player than Joey Belle was.

    How can I be singing such praise for a player not yet out of low-A? More so, one that has yet to even master the strike zone? My answer to that, is Young has showed the knack to improve, despite already being a good player. His August numbers:

    AB	BA	SLG	W	K
    103	.437	.786	20	22
    
    Most intriguing for me is not the average or the power, both of which will come and go. But for a player that walked just once in April to show that type of improvement is fantastic. Delmon has not gone four games without a walk since mid-July, during a span in which he went 7/19.

    Unlike the walks, the strikeouts aren?t going anywhere. In each month of play, Delmon struck out in 20-265 of his at-bats. He profiles to do so in excess of 100 times per season in the Major Leagues, a figure that would be offset by 80-100 walks.

    And even when Young was bad, he was not bad. His worst monthly average was a modest .262 in April. In fact, only once all season did Young go three games without a hit, a feat no matter the number. To house that type of consistency, and still have nine hitting streaks in excess of six games is fantastic. And that doesn?t even mention his six-game, multi-hit streak in mid-August.

    Overall, there are little flaws in Delmon?s resume. He has confidence and a Major League pedigree. He makes consistent contact, and shows ridiculous power. Toss in enough speed to be a threat and solid right field play, and you?ve got baseball?s best prospect.

    WTNYJanuary 22, 2005
    Around the Net
    By Bryan Smith

    While still preparing my top five (all detailed reports) for Monday, I wanted to use the weekend to drop-in a few articles that I missed linking to over the past two weeks or so. But before that, here are the individual links to all the prospect lists thus far:

    Honorable Mention
    75-60
    60-45
    45-30
    30-15
    15-6

    I hope you all have enjoyed the lists so far, and if a question of yours did not get answered, I?m trying to piece together a mailbag for next week.

    Just nine days after teammate and third overall selection Phillip Humber signed a deal with the New York Mets, fourth pick Jeff Niemann agreed Thursday to a deal with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Worth $5.2 million over five years, the contract includes a $3.2 million signing bonus for the Rice University star. Undoubtedly the top sophomore in the country in 2003, Niemann struggled as a junior because of offseason elbow surgery and a groin problem that kept him from pitching for nearly a month last year.

    According to the Herald Tribune, Niemann has ?hired a trainer and has been working out at Rice nearly every day.? Hopefully this will allow Jeff to pitch at full strength, when Baseball America says he has this arsenal:


    ?he has a fastball that reaches 97 mph, and he does an excellent job of staying tall in his delivery and using his height to drive the ball down through the strike zone. He also throws a nasty slider that scouts considered the best available in the 2004 draft class, and he added a spike curveball that he picked up from his former roommate and Rice teammate Wade Townsend?

    Jeff will likely start next season in either high-A or AA, depending on how his Spring Training goes. A September start, or even earlier, should not be ruled out should Niemann return to his old self. This will take breaking a rotation that Lou Piniella named on Tuesday, containing Rob Bell, Mark Hendrickson, Dewon Brazelton, Scott Kazmir and Doug Waechter.

    Still unsigned from the 2004 first-round are who most people slot as the top two players: Jered Weaver (Angels) and Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks). Weaver is asking for a Mark Prior-type deal, which A-B?s own Rich Lederer argued for less than two weeks ago. Drew, who has been rumored to be everything from signed to back in school, is looking for the type of contract Mark Teixeira received. Both are expected to sign, as Scott Boras? other obligations are dwindling.

    WTNY

    Staying in the Tampa organization, here?s an unfortunate story coming from the St. Petersburg Times (scroll down):


    Outfield prospect Elijah Dukes was arrested early Tuesday on a first-degree misdemeanor charge of battery (domestic violence). Dukes is to remain in jail until this morning, when he is expected to have bail set by a Hillsborough County judge. According to police, Dukes was having an argument with his sister then grabbed her by the throat and punched her in the left arm.

    This is extremely bad news for Dukes, who has previously been arrested two other times within the last two years. The Devil Rays tried to recognize Dukes? off-the-field problems by allowing him to miss part of last season to attend anger management classes. The organization cited improvements in his behavior upon a dominant performance in the California League in the second half of last season.

    I still do not believe that Dukes? anger problems should greatly effect his status as a top prospect, and as a reader pointed out, the issues only make him more comparable to Milton Bradley. Both switch-hitters with a bit of speed and power, Bradley also went through low-A and high-A as a 20-year-old, and not even as dominantly as Dukes did. Still, the two have similar discipline stats, power numbers (once adjusted for park), and like builds. I should note that in his 21-year-old season, Bradley hit .329 in AA over the course of 346 at-bats.
    At this point, it?s hard to tell whether the future is bleak or bright.

    WTNY

    And in what I promise will be the last Devil Ray story linked to, here?s a piece from the Ventura County Star on the evolution of Delmon Young, and the help that Dmitri has had on him. My favorite was when Delmon asked his older brother how to hit a good split-finger, Dmitri responded with, ?'That's easy, Del. You don't. You get him to throw you something above the belt.? It?s nice to see that selectivity is not just being preached to him within the organization, but at the dinner table as well.

    WTNY

    Another top prospect recently profiled in the news was Mr. 101, Adam Miller. The nickname derives from the Carolina League playoffs last year, when two radar guns had the teenager in triple-digits. From the piece, found in the Cleveland Plain Dealer (hat tip, Rich Lederer):


    "I definitely wasn't trying to throw that hard," Miller said. "It just happened."
    ?
    A power pitcher since high school, Miller figured he would continue to throw in the low-90s during the 2004 season. However, as he dominated for the lower-Class A Lake County Captains, his radar readings climbed into the mid-90s. At the South Atlantic League All-Star Game, Miller had five pitches clocked at 98 to 100.
    ?
    He understands that repeating delivery, leveraging downhill and achieving maximum extension through release translate to velocity - not raring back and firing.
    ?
    As valuable as it is, velocity alone has not made Miller an elite prospect. To succeed in the majors, most starters employ at least a three-pitch mix. Miller complements the fastball with a slider that Tribe brass has declared close to major-league ready. His third pitch, the change-up, remains the wild card.
    ?
    The circle change paved the way for dominance at Kinston?Miller further honed the change at the instructional league last fall. When Miller debuts for Class AA Akron in the spring, it could be a part of the repertoire.

    Not a lot to pick on there, my friends. If you live anywhere near Akron, do yourself a favor this year, and go see an Aeros game. Just make sure to pick the right day, because on every fifth, a future ace will be pitching.

    WTNY

    A little more than a week ago, Major League Baseball signed a ten-year extension with the NAPBL, the organization that runs the minor leagues. My favorite is this little biscuit at the bottom:


    Additional highlights of the agreement include access to all Minor League content for a baseball-only television channel, owned and operated by Major League Baseball, and joint marketing initiatives between MLB and the Minor Leagues.

    I can?t think of anything I would want more than if MLB TV featured a minor league game of the week, carefully pitching the game that will match together the best group of prospects. Who knows, maybe one day a scouting report will only be a video away.

    WTNYJanuary 21, 2005
    WTNY 75: 15-6 (part 6 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    The WTNY Top five will actually be reveiled next week, though it shouldn't be too hard for you loyal readers to guess who they are. I hope you all enjoyed the list, and I'll see you Monday.

    15. Jeff Francis- SP- Colorado Rockies- 24

    There are not a lot of criticisms to impose on Jeff Francis, undoubtedly the 2004 Player of the Year. You know that you?ve made it when the only thing that evaluators have against you is your future home ballpark, though I guess that complaint is quite valid given the Colorado environment. Other that that, nothing should hold Francis back, and I believe he is the most talented pitcher the Rockies have ever developed. The stadium should hold him back from winning the Rookie of the Year, I know it didn?t do so to Jason Jennings, but this year?s class should be far more loaded. A lanky southpaw, Francis throws four pitches with confidence, and was the most talked about player by the Futures Game broadcasting crew. His ceiling simply isn?t as high as the players above him, but there isn?t a lot standing in Jeff?s way now, besides those Rockie mountains.

    14. Jeff Francoeur- OF- Atlanta Braves- 21

    Earlier in the year, I did a study on the patience of all the current top Major Leaguers, and how their walks and strikeouts had progressed since each level. My findings were unique, showing that Francoeur?s plate discipline has been worse than anyone else at the top. While I don?t find this to be too damning, I think it gives Francoeur more of a chance to flame out than a lot of prospects. Still, he?s been compared to Dale Murphy since his high school days, and with this organization, that?s extremely high praise. John Scheurholz alluded to the fact that Francoeur will likely break in Atlanta before Andy Marte, more due to position than anything else. With Jeff I either see a bust or an All-Star, with very little middle-ground evident.

    13. Scott Kazmir- SP- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- 21

    The ultimate relief question in the minor leagues is Kazmir, though many I have talked to said that he is one of the special few that can succeed with just two pitches. He has shown a bit of dominance at every level, including over the world champion Boston Red Sox while in the Major Leagues. The D-Rays are going to give Kazmir every chance to succeed, so he?s going to be a starter until he really proves it?s a bad idea. This could either result in an Octavio Dotel-type career, when he moves from starter to reliever while in the Major Leagues, or, as I?m predicting, he?ll stay in the rotation. Kazmir will not be an ace, I think that ceiling prediction is a bit high, and he?ll be a perfect #2 or 3 under a soon-to-be-named Devil Ray ace.

    12. Lastings Milledge- OF- New York Mets- 20

    Derek Zumsteg had a very good piece profiling Lastings? sketchy background, which (combined with his signing bonus) was the reason that Milledge was not a top-five pick. That background is also one of the only flaws against him, who should definitely be considered the beast five-tool talent in the minor leagues. The Mets, who frankly could use a new development staff, promoted Milledge a bit early, where upon he was disastrous in the Florida State League. He?ll get a second chance in the league this season, and this time should be ready. I think the world of Milledge, and it?s unfortunate that we won?t be able to see him roam centerfield in Shea Stadium. Well, I guess not too unfortunate for the Mets. What?s really fun is imagining a Milledge-Beltran-Cameron outfield, and the amazing defense that could produce. Even more so, at least with Lastings and Beltran, is the top offense.

    11. Matt Cain- SP- San Francisco Giants- 20

    All things considered, Matt Cain is as polished a 20-year-old as there is in baseball. But there is a reason that he stands behind Chad Billingsley and Adam Miller: upside. Don?t get me wrong, Matt has considerable upside. Actually, the fourth-most of any pitcher in the Majors. But, after seeing the K/9 decline when moving to the Eastern League, I don?t have quite as much confidence as I do Chad and Adam. Also concerning was his rise in W/9, since a 4.00 number will not sustain future success. But we see this kind of performance out of a lot of people when moving up to AA, and I expect him to return to old levels next year. The Giants have gotten nearly as much out of Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert as they would have thought, and this speaks quite poorly for Cain?s future, but he still has the potential to dominate at any moment. I love Matt, and given SBC Park, he could be putting up big numbers for a big number of years.

    10. Joel Guzman- SS- Los Angeles Dodgers- 20

    Like Jeff Francoeur before him, Joel Guzman has had BB/K numbers in his career that are worse than any Major League star. But I guess looking at Guzman?s career is where you get problems, since he wasn?t nearly the player as heralded as the Dodgers had claimed?until this year. Guzman?s breakout this year is what Los Angeles had hoped for years ago, they spent a record amount on him when he would have been just a sophomore in high school. With that said, it?s hard to penalize Joel for waiting this long to show us his true colors, which is why I didn?t. But, I think if Guzman, who is likely to move to third, is any reason the Dodgers didn?t sign Adrian Beltre, that?s a large mistake. Guzman is another with a large ceiling, a lot of room for flame-out, with very little in-between. While scouts expect Guzman to grow even more than his 6-4 frame, pushing him away from shortstop, the Dodgers need to keep him there until it?s absolutely necessary to move him. Let me give you some advice L.A. fans: pray there isn?t.

    9. Chad Billingsley- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers- 20

    Every time I see Billingsley?s statistics, I am reminiscent of my favorite player in baseball. Often times, the player I credit with my intense fandom in baseball. In 1996, he was the rage of the Florida State League, with a 5.7 H/9, 10.7 K/9, and an odd 5.5 W/9. His stuff was as good as it gets, with a huge fastball and breaking pitch, along with the occasional solid third pitch. Billingsley, similarly, posted a 6.7 H/9, 10/9 K/9 and 4.8 W/9 this year. His stuff is similar to that of Kerry Wood, the player whom I am speaking of above. But unlike Kerry, Chad moved up and dominated AA in the same season, and is set for an appearance in Los Angeles some time this summer. With Edwin Jackson and Billingsley on the way, Jon Weisman could be kept a happy man for years to come.

    8. Ian Stewart- 3B- Colorado Rockies- 20

    Blame it on Cecil Fielder. Blame it on Delmon Young or Lastings Milledge. Blame it on Jeff Francis. Blame it on someone, because Ian Stewart?s amazing 2004 season appears to be a bit overlooked. Last year we fell in love with Prince Fielder after his low-A season in which he hit .313 with 49 2B+HR and 71 walks. Albeit it in a more favorable park, Stewart bested those numbers this year with a .319 average and 61 2B+HR, and falling just short of Prince with 68 walks. Yes, he is that good.

    I?m not quite sure what park factors would do to Stewart?s numbers here, but there is no denying that his season was at or better than Fielder?s the year before. His slugging was helped a bit by nine triples, which if prorated by the Rockies? team average, would fall to .558. Still, Prince didn?t hit .319/.398/.558.

    Really, Stewart has everything I like in a prospect. His strikeouts looked to be a problem early on, he hit 50 before reaching 200 at-bats, but then had just 60 in his next 300 at-bats. In fact, his K% declined in every full month, before reaching it?s low 17.3% in August. The same type of correlation happened in slugging, as his great August included a .385 average and .635 slugging.

    It seemed like Ian was always working on some solid streak, as he had six hitting streaks over six games, though none over eleven. By the end of the year Stewart was literally flawless as a hitter, and thus should create some internal debate as to whether put him on the Prince Fielder-skip-highA-track. Garrett Atkins will likely allow the Rockies to keep Stewart at a decently slow pace, but his bat might make O?Dowd want to bring him up earlier.

    7. Prince Fielder- 1B- Milwaukee Brewers- 21

    Forgive Prince for taking a while to become adjusted to the Southern League, his excuses are pretty sensible. This was a 20-year-old who was forced to skip high-A the year following winning the Midwest League MVP award, giving Fielder his first real dose of failure. And he was moved to one of the minors? worst hitting leagues, into a park not real favorable on batters. Tough assignment.

    But give the kid credit, he showed a lot of integrity in the way he played this past season. After starting with a red-hot April, Fielder was pushing far too hard in both May and June. For a thirteen game stretch in May, Fielder did not collect one extra-base hit while batting 10/54. Prince was still walking a lot, and his strikeout ratio never veered too far from 20%. 81 games into the season, Fielder was hitting just .246, but with an ISO of .180 in 305 at-bats.

    This was about the time that Fielder was summoned to start the Futures Game at first base for the United States squad. While I feel the game is set in place more to evaluate pitchers than hitters, Prince impressed me more than any other hitter during the game. Facing Felix Hernandez, who otherwise looked dominant, Fielder took a 95+ fastball the opposite way for a single. His accomplishment will likely be overlooked in years to come, but it showed the type of hitter Prince was, even against the toughest of competition.

    Not surprisingly, it was soon after the Futures Game when Fielder started to figure AA out. His contact skills became much more pronounced, as seen by both his rise in batting average, and decline in K%. In his last 54 games, making up about 40% of the season, Fielder hit .313 with a .547 slugging, walking 27 times while striking out 33. His bat had arrived.

    This leaves the Brewers with a rather large decision this spring. Do they send their top prospect back to Huntsville for more success, or do they take his last 200 at-bats as a sign that he should be making dinner dates with Will Carroll in Indy? Some could argue Prince never really got going in AA, since he only registered two hitting streaks beyond three games. But given his 39 multi-hit games, and that fantastic finish, I would advise the Brewers to continue forth with their 2006 ETA.

    6. Casey Kotchman- 1B- Anaheim Angels- 22

    If nothing else, you have to respect Terry Ryan . In the middle of the season, and the middle of the pennant race, he dealt his most vocal leader in Doug Mientkiewicz. Replacing him was Justin Morneau, a first base prospect with huge power, even a surer bet than Kotchman. So to even out a Nomar Garciaparra trade that just could not get agreed to, Ryan traded a valuable player for a pitching prospect. A bold move, no doubt, but in a system with this much depth, not too gutsy an opportunity. It looks as if Kotchman, ready for the Majors in every facet of the game, will start the season in AAA, before moving to the Majors later in the year. This will take a Terry Ryan-like move from the Twins, not likely given their conservative front office, along with Anaheim?s love for Erstad. Darin should switch positions or teams by year?s end, literally putting the ball in Casey?s court.

    WTNYJanuary 20, 2005
    WTNY 75: 30-16 (Part 5 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    30. Ian Kinsler- SS- Texas Rangers- 23

    The Jeremy Reed Inauspicious Breakout of the Year award goes to?Mr. Ian Kinsler. Sorry, but the former 17th round pick was not my choice of who would top .400 with significant time at a minor league level. After playing in only 20 games at Arizona State University in 2002, ?He made up his mind,? Missouri coach Tim Jamieson told me. ?He was looking for the opportunity to play at a high level conference.?

    In the Big 12, his career was defined by ?intangibles more than his numbers.? Despite a stress fracture in his foot, Kinsler put together a solid season at MU, hitting .335/.416/.536 in just short of 200 at-bats. ?If not for the injury, I think his numbers would have looked better,? Jamieson forecasted. Kudos to Grady Fuson and the rest of his scouting team, as after a .762 OPS in the Northwest League in his pro debut, Kinsler adjusted perfectly to full-season ball.

    Thanks to his ability to get the ?barrel on the bat all the time,? Kinsler hit .402 in 59 Midwest League games. After former first-round pick Drew Meyer was demoted to the California League, the Rangers opted to allow Kinsler to skip a level and move to the Texas League. Jamieson said of Ian?s body, ?he had a frame that allowed him to put on weight, and has added about 15 pounds since leaving college.? New muscle, along with ?quick hands and a short stroke,? give Ian the ability to turn on any fastball and hit it for power.

    ?The thing that sets him apart is his discipline and knowledge of the strike zone.? Described as ?confident? and ?very dedicated,? Kinsler?s mistake-free play saw continued success in AA, with a .299/.401/.465 line. His play is already forcing John Hart to consider various Alfonso Soriano options, including a trade or a move to the outfield. ?Ian had everything, he just needed some refining.? Consider it done.

    29. Scott Olsen- SP- Florida Marlins- 21

    I have a lot of conflicting views in trying to evaluate Olsen properly. First, this is a pitcher that on the stat sheet shows a 2.97 ERA, but upon further evaluation, had an RA of 3.77. He was one of the luckiest pitchers in the minors last year, but at the same time, also one of the most dominant. Olsen would lead the Florida State League with 158 strikeouts, though he undoubtedly has some control issues that seemed to pop up from time to time.

    But first and foremost, the report on Olsen is that he has the ability to control a game. Five times this year did Olsen strike out double-digit batters, once in back-to-back games in June. And while I have a problem with the fact that he allowed zero earned runs in just six of his 25 starts, four of them came in his last five starts. In fact, in those last five, he allowed one run in 30.2 innings, allowing 21 hits, 6 walks and one home run while striking out 42 batters. There is no question that without this finish, Olsen would be farther down this list. His end just gave us a look at his ceiling.

    But with Olsen, there is also the basement floor. Five times during the season his walk total matched or was higher than his strikeouts, and thrice he walked five batters in one game. Furthermore, in ten starts, his hit total was higher than his innings pitched. I have less confidence that Olsen will reach his ceiling than any other player in the top 50, it?s just the height of his ceiling that has led to his placement.

    28. Dan Meyer- SP- Oakland Athletics- 23

    In a great interview over at Perfect Game (hat tip, Brad Dowdy), Atlanta Braves? scouting director Roy Clark cites Dan Meyer as a player they loved out of college. They chose the soft-throwing southpaw out of James Madison in the sandwich round following his junior year, a season in which he posted solid if not spectacular statistics. Since then, and you better credit the Braves developmental staff, Dan?s numbers have actually improved in the minor leagues. Never has his ERA been above 3.00, and once has it been below 2.70, in five stops. Most of the time the ERA is in that range, though each time his peripherals have varied a bit. After seeing a bull pen appearance of his in September, I really have started to believe that he?s a rich man?s Mark Redman, throwing high-80s fastballs in the same, effortless style. But Meyer has four pitches that he will use at any time, has great control, and is smart enough on the mound to pile up strikeouts. He and Joe Blanton are both going to be solid, middle-of-the-rotation starters, simply giving the team 300+ solid innings on the Harden-Zito days off.

    27. Ryan Howard- 1B- Philadelphia Phillies- 24

    Yes, friends, more comps here. In the fifth round of the 1998 draft, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected a big, left-handed hitter with a power bat and bad defense, from one of the nation?s top programs: Miami. Three years later, in the same round, the Phillies took a similar player from another solid program, though a bit less heralded: Southwest Missouri State. The Devil Ray would post three slugging percentages above .530 before making the Majors, while the Phillie took until AA to reach those numbers, and he got well above .600. I?m not saying the comp is perfect, but I believe that Howard will become some version of Aubrey Huff, probably with a little more power, more strikeouts and a bit of a worse average. Still, Howard is probably the best prospect that is openly on the trading block, and should be pursued by any young team with an open hole at first base. I really wouldn?t frown on the Devil Rays and Phillies trying to work out a deal involving Rocco Baldelli and Howard, though I have been criticized for calling for Baldelli?s trade in the past.

    26. John Danks- SP- Texas Rangers- 20

    Since being drafted, Danks has always been called the ?poor man?s Scott Kazmir,? which given my experience watching him, seemed a bit unfair. After seeing 33 pitches from him in the Futures Game, I came away under whelmed, saying he was ?throwing between 89-92, and showcasing a curveball he left up quite often.? This is both less than both was reported prior to the game, and a lot less than Kazmir?s repertoire. Still, I think Danks will develop a third pitch better than Kazmir did, and I find him to be a better rotation candidate than his fellow Texan. His Midwest League numbers were unsurprisingly dominant, but he significantly worsened in Stockton. I think the key to Danks? success will be learning that change, keeping his BB/9 below 3.0, and getting out of the California League. He has the chance to put up Matt Cain-type California League numbers to start the year, but I expect just modest numbers before the Rangers get him out of there.

    25. Daric Barton- 1B- Oakland Athletics- 19

    This, he, is the reason that the context of numbers is more important than what they actually say. On the surface, we see Daric Barton as a player that hit .313/.455/.511 last season, never having an average below .300 all season. His numbers, according to Peter Gammons, were Pujols-esque. But what I hope to show you over the course of this report, is that Barton?s numbers raise a lot more questions than you would think given that BB/K (69/44).

    After missing the first month and a half with a broken hand, Daric played just 90 games during the 2004 season. During a 46-game stretch in the middle of his season, encompassing about half of his at-bats for the year, Barton was not a prospect. But the other half, he was the minors? best hitter. But as I said, we could not possibly have seen this, since .301 was his lowest average of the season. His first 22 games, in which he hit .422, was enough to earn him fame in Prospectdom. Don?t get me wrong, he wasn?t chopped liver in the rest, for in the final 22 games, he hit .342. Combined in those two stretches is a .384 average, a .635 slugging, and 42 walks.

    But the problem was in the other half, the middle one, when his accomplishments were none too spectacular. In those 46 games, Daric Barton was reduced to a .240 average, with a .383 slugging. His ISO was reduced more than 40%, and his walks significantly declined to just twenty-seven. This is quite problematic for the A?s, since an argument could be made that Daric was the centerpiece of the Mark Mulder deal. Should this be the player Barton becomes, the .240 kind, Billy Beane?s logic seems far more flawed.

    It would be rather unoriginal for me to tell you that Barton may not be able to stay behind the plate. But, this information opens the door for many comparisons, for instance Scott Hatteberg has been thrown around. The one I like, on the optimistic side, is Carlos Delgado. A catcher in his youth, Delgado moved to first base because his glove made sense there and his bat could justify it. His low-A numbers included hitting .286, with 36 2B+HR, and 75 walks in 441 AB. Not too off from Barton, who was actually better in all three categories per plate appearance.

    The Midwest League is not a friendly place for hitters, which makes Barton?s numbers that much more impressive. California is a far greater hitter?s haven, speaking highly for the future of Daric. But Barton?s consistency needs loads of improvement, and he must decide which half-season most truly resembles his talents. Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the A?s will not take any chances and move Barton to first base this season, and now it?s Barton?s job to prove his offense can justify the switch, like Delgado did.

    24. Nick Swisher- OF- Oakland Athletics- 24

    With some players, you hear how broken thumbs greatly hurt their numbers, but not from this guy. Swisher found out that he played the whole season with a broken left thumb and torn tendon, both of which have been repaired this offseason. To hit 29 home runs with this type of injury is a remarkable feat, and just leaves us guessing on how many more he could hit. Oakland management is probably hoping that what the surgery improves most is Swisher?s contact skills, since he hit just .269 and struck out about 25% of the time. Neither of the numbers are fantastic by any means, and if he could get to .280 and 20%, then Swisher will be a star in right, and probably a finalist for the Rookie of the Year. The notion of giving the right field job to Charles Thomas or someone else is ludicrous, Swisher has the potential to be the team?s second or third best hitter?in 2005.

    23. Greg Miller- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers- 20

    Even with a year missed, given what level he should begin at next season (AA), Miller is an extremely young prospect. Also, if Logan White is right that Miller has regained most of his stuff from his fantastic 2003 season, there should be no stopping him. I know this might fall on deaf ears to Dodger fans who have heard so much hype and seen so little results from Edwin Jackson, but trust me, these guys can make a difference. It might take Miller a little while to do so, recovering from the injury usually has a grace period, and the presence of Jackson, Chad Billingsley, Joel Hanrahan and Jonathan Broxton will allow the Dodgers to take him extremely slow. If I were a gambling man, I would bet on an ERA in the low 3.00s, a K/9 a bit below the nine mark, but a solid H/9. The logjam of pitchers in this organization will create some interesting decisions for Paul DePodesta, as most of them don?t fit his prototype pitcher anyway. My guess is that Billingsley and Jackson will make it before anyone else in this organization, with Miller a likely candidate to be traded given his 2004 season.

    22. Yusmeiro Petit- SP- New York Mets- 20

    Petit is another that, even if we didn't see the degree of his breakout, we should have better recognized him before the season. Now, I don't follow short-season ball much (a flaw of mine you could say), but an 8.5 K/BB in 74 innings of work split between the Appy and New York-Penn Leagues should have caught my eye. For 2004, Petit's control worsened a bit (who's wouldn't?) to just under 5.0, which is still better than most of the players on this list. He struck out 200 batters in less than 140 innings, though he was striking out batters less and less at each of his three levels. Still, Yusmeiro did not allow a home run in either the FSL or Eastern League (56 innings), and was great this winter. While his stuff doesn't match up to others behind him, he's better than Brandon McCarthy (a similar pitcher), and one of the top thirty prospects in baseball.

    21. Gavin Floyd- SP- Philadelphia Phillies- 22

    The fact that at full health, the Philadelphia Phillies will not have room for Gavin Floyd in their rotation is a joke. It is a waste of resources to be spending money on the likes of Cory Lidles and such, when Floyd is so ready for a spot. Now I know that Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla will likely allow Floyd to get a lot of starts this year, but when he?s not in Philadelphia, I just will be furious with this franchise. The best idea now is to package Wolf and Ryan Howard together, land another marquee player, and let Floyd be a starter. Throwing curveballs at his own pace should help, as the Phillies employed the unique philosophy of setting limits on how many times he threw the fantastic pitch in the minors. This allowed for the further development of his fastball and third pitch, and also his confidence to throw either in any count. Floyd should be another Rookie of the Year contender next year, if given the opportunity, and should make that 2001 draft?s top-five rock solid.

    20. Jose Capellan- SP- Milwaukee Brewers- 24

    In a lot of the comments on players during my rankings, I've given awards, so I'll continue by naming Jose Capellan my most talked about player of 2004. This is a notable award, because it was Jose's huge rise through the Brave system that made him so noticed by prospect evaluators. He was also helped by pitching on a day that I turned on TBS, and being traded to the Brewers this winter, both of which I dealt with on this site. More than any prospect in baseball, I feel like I have a handle on Capellan's skill set. He's a thick player that uses big thighs to throw a mid-to-upper 90s fastball extremely consistently. In the process, Capellan has fallen in love with the pitch, making his curveball inconsistent and his change unseen by anyone outside of coaches. His ceiling is Bartolo Colon, a comparison that I've made before, but he's a lot more likely to make it as a reliever. His heavy fastball does not induce many home runs, which should make him star in the closer role in Milwaukee, and good press can only be a good thing for the Brew Crew.

    19. Michael Aubrey- 1B- Cleveland Indians- 23

    One of the most overused comparisons used with prospects is that of the good fielding, good contact, lack of great power first basemen: you'll see Mark Grace or Sean Casey or J.T. Snow or Will Clark. But few players have ever been as close to that mold as Michael Aubrey, who I will compare to Sean Casey. Like Aubrey, Casey grew up in the Cleveland system, and played in the Carolina League (in Kinston) at 21 years of age. In 344 at-bats there, Casey hit .331 with a .544 slugging, 36 walks and 47 strikeouts. In 218 at-bats, Aubrey was .339/.550, with 27 walks and 26 strikeouts. Now Michael went on to struggle in the Eastern League, compared to Casey who had injuries cut that season short. But in the next season, Casey hit .386/.598 in the Eastern League, so let high expectations for Aubrey begin. It won't be long before Travis Hafner and Aubrey, along with Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez, and Victor Martinez help re-establish greatness in this organization.

    18. Hanley Ramirez- SS- Boston Red Sox- 21

    Everyone I read says that Hanley Ramirez will hit for power one day, and I don?t deny that fact at all. The more and more removed from the shoulder injury, the more and more power Hanley started to hit. Six of his eight FSL doubles were in his last fifteen games there, and his Eastern League performance was solid. What was interesting about his power in the Eastern League was that it was confined to an 11 game stretch in the middle in which he hit seven extra-base hits, and in his last six games, with six extra-base hits. In the other 15 games, all you have to show is one double. Hanley has consistency with his average, strikeout numbers (about 16-17%), walks, he just now needs the power to be consistent. He?ll always be more gap power than anything else, but 15-25 home runs a year is definitely not out of the picture. Now the Red Sox must decide whether they want that at second base, or want the fruits of what trading Hanley would provide.

    17. Rickie Weeks- 2B- Milwaukee Brewers- 22

    Blame Rickie Weeks for me not ranking drafted players this year. A bit of an overstatement, but my wrongful placement of Weeks (fourth) on last season's list showed that you can never be too sure of a player until you see enough reps. It wasn't that I was wrong a year ago about Week's talent, there's an abundance, just more wrong about his ETA. To expect a player from Southern University, no matter how dominant the player was, to rise to the Majors within a year of being drafted is a lot. Weeks showed his flaws in the Southern League this year, striking out at levels that we never would have dreamed, and overall not showing the contact skills that made him a Golden Spikes winner. Still, there's a lot of hope for Weeks still. While not being hit by 28 pitches will take down his OBP a bit this year, I think it's safe to say he'll hit for a higher average this time around. And once some of those 35 doubles start going over the fence, watch out, Junior Spivey will be gone in a hurry.

    16. Jeremy Hermida- OF- Florida Marlins- 21

    I?ll blame it on consistency for Hermida never really getting it going this year, keeping his average high but not showing the power we thought. So 2005 will sort of be his put up or shut up year, the season in which his agent is telling him to ?Show me the power.? Jeremy has a little bit of everything in his repertoire, though his power has yet to really shine, and both his base running and selectivity were down a bit this year.

    Hermida was hurt on and off all year, especially in May and June, two months in which he combined for just 90 at-bats. He played a bit more consistently from July on, though not everyday by any means, in which he hit .289 and slugged just .428 in 180 at-bats. You have to begin to wonder at this point whether or not leadoff will be Hermida?s calling card, which given his bit of power, is a spot he could be quite dangerous. Still, the Marlins would love to see Hermida blossom into everything they thought he could be with the eleventh overall pick, which is a five-tool player in the middle of their order.

    One important aspect to being a leadoff hitter is a good OBP, and while Hermida walks enough to be solid, his walk totals decreased this year. I actually noticed an interesting trend that I thought worth passing along: in the 29 games this year in which Jeremy did not collect a hit, he walked 23 times. But in his other 62 games, he walked just 19 times. So that?s saying that about 55% of Hermida?s walks for the season came in 32% of his games.

    Jeremy will move up to AA next year, which as I said, is his time to begin showcasing his power. I would be remiss not to note that Miguel Cabrera posted extremely similar ISOs as Hermida has in his minor league run, and as we know, really took off as a Carolina Mudcat. Now I?m not comparing the two offensively, but I?m saying this should be Hermida?s breakout season. If he can get the base running back to 2003 dorm, the Marlins will have the five-tool talent they once thought they had.

    WTNYJanuary 19, 2005
    WTNY 75: 45-31 (Part 4 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    45. Chuck Tiffany- LHP- Los Angeles Dodgers- 20

    Things are looking good for Scott Elbert, aren?t they? In June, the teenage southpaw became the sixth pitcher that Logan White has drafted in the first two rounds in the last three years, joining the likes of Greg Miller, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton and Chuck Tiffany.

    Surprisingly, it might be the latter that has received the least fanfare, likely because he spent the entire 2004 season in low-A. But still, no other player mentioned above has had streaks of dominance like Tiffany, who reached the double-digit plateau in strikeouts in five different games this past season. This included each of his last four starts, when the powerful leftie struck out 46 in 21.1 innings, allowing just ten hits and three earned runs in the process.

    My problem with Tiffany, is his lack of continued dominance even at a relatively easy level. After starting the season with nine solid starts (2.25 ERA), Chuck really ran into difficulty in his next nine. Only twice in those next batch of starts did Tiffany allow two or less earned runs, and in neither instance did he pitch more than four innings. His ERA for the nine games was 7.08, with 38 strikeouts and 41 hits allowed in 34.1 innings.

    This type of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde is a scary thing to deal with, because the balance could really tip in either direction. Given the reports I?ve heard of Tiffany?s fastball/curve combination, along with the way he finished out the season, you have to believe in this kid. I think the Vero Beach stadium will really help his flyball affinity (or so I would guess), and set Tiffany on a course (A+ and AA) similar to those that Miller and Billingsley both have traveled by. But Tiffany can always brag about his three no-hitters.

    44. Merkin Valdez- SP- San Francisco Giants- 23

    Stay wary of players the Atlanta organization rids themselves of, seldom have they ever made John Scheurholz regret his move. Manuel Mateo when the Braves included him in the Gary Sheffield trade, Valdez was not yet twenty nor in full season ball upon his entrance in the San Francisco organization. His 2003 was great, he was as good a low-A pitcher as was seen, making us wonder if Atlanta should have chosen a different pitcher. Those thoughts continued after his seven fantastic California League starts this year, games that led to his promotion to the Eastern League. And it was there, when pitchers are said to either succeed or fail, that he showed signs of flaws. With an opening at the closer position in the Majors, the Giants gave Valdez a three-game AA tutorial on relieving, and then quickly promoted him to San Fran. Two innings and five earned runs later, the experiment ended and Merkin was a starter again. But since his repertoire only consists of two solid pitches, Brian Sabean could have been right moving El Mago to the closer position. It was really a matter of control that led to his Eastern League struggles, so if he gets that back on track, Valdez will still be projected into what could be a great future Giant rotation.

    43. Jeremy Reed- OF- Seattle Mariners- 24

    Meet the perfect example of the dilemma between weighing the 2004 season with that of 2003. I?m usually a ?What have you done for me lately? type, but to Jeremy Reed that might not apply. The 2003 WTNY Player of the Year, Reed had a season that any prospect would be jealous of. In 2004, Reed regressed, falling below the prospect status of Shin-Soo Choo from his new organization, and Brian Anderson from his old.

    Much of the plate discipline that one enshrined Reed in sabermetric culture was not apparent this season. While his 57 walks expressed as a raw number are intriguing, it hides the fact that 30% of those were the product of six games in May. So in his other 110 games, Reed walked just 42 times. This is not terrible, but also not terribly far from the likes that are criticized for this trait. My guess is that he?ll one day return to 2003 form, but only have always taking a while to digest his new league.

    Another possible stopgap in Reed?s quest to become a Major League regular will be his lack of power. Many, including blogger extraordinaire Dave Cameron, are unsure that Reed will be able to play centerfield defensively. This leaves the corners as Reed?s future stomping grounds, positions where contact and baserunning fall behind power on the priority list. This could be quite problematic for a player that did not hit a home run until late May (145 AB), and even had a 20-game extra-base hitless streak. Put those skills in Safeco field, and Reed is far from Lenny Dykstra.

    But don?t let me be overly critical of Jeremy, who I still think (and proved in September) will help a Major League roster. His contact skills are fantastic, with a 15.7 K% the only time over twelve all season. His average was way down, but I think he has the makings of a .250 hitter. His slugging should be about equivalent to what it was May-August: .418. For him to be a useful player under those circumstances, he must have an OBP above .346 to have a .260 GPA, and .390 for a .280 GPA. Look for something in the middle, which won?t keep him a Mariner long.

    42. Brian McCann- C- Atlanta Braves- 21

    Brian McCann is a very unique prospect. First of all, he?s a left-handed catcher, of which there was one regular last season (Pierzynski). Second, he shows a lot of power from the left side, which is about as rare as you can find in catchers. I really like McCann, who might be able to supplant Johnny Estrada in 2006 or 2007, probably the latter as the Braves would be best suited to take Brian slow and get the most out of Estrada. When fully developed, McCann should have great power, as after April his ISO was never below .175 for a month. His average will likely never hit .300, but he should maintain above the league average for much of his career. And if his defense continues to progress at previous levels, then I think McCann will answer the Estrada-McCann-Salty debate himself.

    41. Conor Jackson- OF- Arizona Diamondbacks- 23

    I constantly remind myself to be careful with Diamondback prospects, who are aided by the best hitters ballparks in the minors, with great home run stadiums in Lancaster, El Paso and Tuscon. So, it?s important to keep everything in perspective, especially when dealing with the huge numbers that Arizona prospects have been putting out. One of those players is Conor Jackson, the D-Backs former first-round pick out of California. So while trying to weigh how the parks have helped Jackson, I?ve come up with two assumptions about a skill set: first, he?s an amazing contact hitter with good averages, few strikeouts, and great selectivity; second, that he lacks the power that many of his numbers would suggest, though he?s not completely devoid of any. He reminds me a bit of a right-handed Ben Grieve, who posted similarly great statistics in the California League as a 20-year-old. Grieve?s contact skills regressed when entering the Majors, and since, his power has regressed as well. Hopefully the D-Backs will not have this happen to them, but given the glut of players with Jackson?s positions (LF/1B), trading him at top value might be their best option.

    40. Brian Anderson- OF- Chicago White Sox- 23

    I decided on Anderson over Jackson because while the two feature similar offensive skill sets, Anderson?s position (CF) is important in the debate. Both rarely whiff, Jackson a little less, but Brian is still far from the 20% mark. Both are solid contact hitters, but I think it?s Anderson that actually could have better power in the future, as his A+/AA stadiums were considerably harder than his former Pac-10 rival. If the White Sox win a lot of games this year, with both Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik, it has the ability to stunt Anderson?s growth, who should be ready in 2006. I don?t think Chicago will win the division however, opening the door for Poddy?s exit and Anderson?s arrival. He?s extremely well-thought of within the White Sox organization, and profiles to be their centerfielder of the future. I know you heard that with Joe Borchard Sox fans, but Anderson?s bust percentage (a made-up figure in my head) is considerably less than Borchard?s at the same level.

    39. Franklin Gutierrez- OF- Cleveland Indians- 22

    It was thought after Milton Bradley?s numerous off-the-field issues in Cleveland, the Indians would be lucky to get any player of value for him early last season. But like he seemingly always does, Mark Shapiro acquired five-tool talent Gutierrez (and fringe prospect Andrew Brown) for Bradley. Gutierrez continued to do well with Cleveland, hitting .302 and showing a bit of increased patience along with the fantastic defense that scouts had touted. Missing was the great power from Vero Beach the previous year, as Franklin hit just five home runs in the 70 games he played. He also struck out 77 times, making his K% go above 29%, raising it for the fourth consecutive season. But it seems like an injury of all things might help the latter two problems, at least according to this article from the Beacon Journal. The article states that after a HBP ended Gutierrez?s season, the Indian organization moved Franklin off the plate, which should lessen his injury risk, and prevent him from being such a pull hitter. His power was way up again in the Venezuelan League this winter, where he finished with the league?s fifth best slugging. His K% was still above 25, so there are things to be done. But with a player this complete, not too much.

    38. Shin-Soo Choo- OF- Seattle Mariners- 22

    Giving someone the title of ?five-tool talent? is extremely high praise, meaning the player excels in contact, power, speed, arm strength and defense. Some have mentioned that discipline, or selectivity should be named a sixth tool, and if so, Choo will then become the minors? second-best six-tool talent (behind Jeremy Hermida in Florida). The tool I?m most worried about in Choo?s bag-o-skills is power, as his slugging conveniently rose in the hitter lover?s Texas League, with a little help from his friend the triple. Safeco tends to hurt those type of players, though I think it?s safe to say that in the very least, Choo undoubtedly possesses ?gap power.? Anyway, the rest of the tools are securely in place, though Choo still remains a little behind Jeremy Reed on the depth chart. That should change this year, and Choo could get an opportunity to make what I think would be the first two-player, Asian-born outfield in history.

    37. Joe Blanton- SP- Oakland Athletics- 24

    Billy Beane has handed the reins over to his rookies this year, and it will be them who ultimately decide if the A?s are a better baseball team than the Angels. I?ve stated before that I agree with the notion that the ?05 rotation could actually outperform the ?04 one, which would probably land Beane in Mensa. Blanton is, in my mind, the safest of the bunch to excel, and the least likely to be a star. I think Blanton?s future is posting ERAs around 4.00, while eating a ton of innings, and going on very solid streaks. His control is among the best in the minors, and he doesn?t allow a ton of home runs, so the Oakland defense should dictate just how well he does.

    36. Kyle Davies- SP- Atlanta Braves- 21

    Since drafting the right-hander in the fourth round of the 2001 draft, the Braves have been very careful with Kyle Davies? arm. They employed the Cubs strategy of sending players to short-season ball in their first fully signed season with Davies, who didn?t hit the minors until 2003. After a very solid performance in Rome, Kyle was sensational this year, posting great peripherals in both the Carolina and Southern Leagues. For some reason I didn?t notice Davies? accomplishments like I had other Braves? prospects, probably because someone was always doing something better than Kyle, who was simply consistently good all season. Davies is well-liked by the types (Scheurholz, Mazzone) that you want to be favored by, and has even been mentioned as a possible fifth starter by the Braves? GM himself. He won?t land the job out of Spring Training, but should Horacio Ramirez suffer any setbacks, Davies is now next in line.

    35. Carlos Quentin- OF- Arizona Diamondbacks- 22

    In a recent article, I pointed out how Carlos Quentin?s record 43 hit by pitches significantly helped raise his on-base percentage, by more than .030 points all season. In the comments, a reader noted that even with HBPs at a normal level, it?s hard to criticize Quentin for an on-base percentage above .400. And that?s exactly right, as long as you recognize that the .430 is wrong, and that even the .400 is park-aided. But I still like Quentin a lot, and believe he has a stronger future than Conor Jackson in the outfield, and should push either Shawn Green or Luis Gonzalez to first base by 2006 or 2007. Like Jackson, Quentin seldom strikes out, so in the very least should post high averages in the Majors. I?d still like to see a more fair OBP though, he did walk just 43 times last season.

    34. Brian Dopirak- 1B- Chicago Cubs- 21

    Drafted in the second round from a Floridian high school in 2002, there was a general consensus on the scouting report of Brian Dopirak, the teenager. Loads of ?raw power? was promised, with a contact problem looking like a possible offensive flaw. In a rather conservative approach fast becoming common in the Cub organization, Dopirak?s first full season under contract was predominantly spent in short-season ball. His first full season was this year in the Midwest League, more than a year and a half after being drafted, when he started to prove the scouts wrong.

    No longer will we see the word ?raw? used to describe Dopirak?s power. In a league not known for the home run, the Cub first basemen rounded the bases thirty-nine times this year, nearly breaking the Midwest League record. He has gone a long way to prove how refined his power actually is, and has left us wondering if it?s possible for even more to develop. Scary thought for opposing NL Centrailians.

    In his quest to be more than a power hitter who doesn?t make contact, Dopirak quenched that knack with a .307 batting average this year. His worst month was .261 in May, and in only two months (April and May) was his average under .290. Dopirak had one of the minors? best hitting streaks this year, a 27-gamer that spread from early June to July. Despite all this, I was still a bit skeptical of Dopirak being a real .300 hitter. I calculated his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), and found it was .331. Regulated to the NL average of .298 (thanks THT), Dopirak?s average slips to .285. Simply put, a .331 BABIP is not sustainable, thus making his .307 average a bit of a fluke. He?s not Greg Vaughn, but let?s not be projecting .300 batting averages down the line quite yet.

    But any questioning of his contact skills ? or his other flaw, the strikeout ? was calmed in a month-and-a-half long span extending from May 28 to July 23. Included in that 50 game stretch was that 27-game hitting streak, and more than half (20) of his home runs for the season. A look:

    Date	         BA	 ISO	 K%
    5/28-7/23	.348	.374	18.2
    The Rest	.283	.236	25.4
    
    While I do think his season line in the Florida State League will look closer to what ?The Rest? says, few minor leagues can boast that type of Bondsian (minus the walks, Dopirak?s next task) performance for even fifty games. First base opens on the North Side in 2007, which will be a nice time for Dopirak to continue to prove doubters wrong.

    33. Eric Duncan- 3B- New York Yankees- 20

    Last season, Duncan showed us exactly the type of player he is, posting very similar numbers in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues. He actually improved upon promotion, walking more and striking out less. His only flaw after moving to Tampa was that his power subsided a bit, only hitting four home runs (but twenty doubles!) in 173 at-bats. Still, I?ll go as far to say that Duncan is one of the top ten power prospects in baseball, possibly top five if I counted it out. I don?t think we?ll ever see huge average numbers out of Duncan, who was even lucky with a BABIP in the .320s, but I think he?ll stay right around .260. All that?s really left is cutting down on those strikeouts, which he did a bit in the FSL, and playing better defense at third, or move over to first. He might even have a more of a future in New York there anyway. There?s supposedly some road block at third.

    32. Nick Markakis- OF- Baltimore Orioles- 21

    In his always thought-provoking top 100, Mike Gullo said of Nick Markakis, ?I saw him early in the year and he had no clue, but later, he looked better at the plate.? Well, this is a situation where eyes and ears match up, as the former Junior College Player of the Year established himself as a streaky player early before continued success from late May to late July.

    Still working on making the full-time switch to hitting, Markakis struggled out of the gates. In his first 12 games ? spanning 41 at-bats ? Nick collected only seven hits and three walks while striking out thirteen times. The next 12 games brought some hope, and his first extra-base hit (game 16- HR) to cool any possible Oriole concern. All in all, Markakis had 17 hits (44 at-bats), reached base in all twelve games, and only whiffed four times.

    And then in early May we saw things go back to a struggle for Markakis, who went an abysmal 7/45 in his next fourteen games. It was a better bad streak than the first one though, with 2 HR, ten walks and only 12 strikeouts. Still, the Delmarva Bluebirds were 40 games into their schedule, and the player supposed to lead their offensive attack was hitting below .250 with only a handful of XBH. Could Markakis simply be the next Oriole first-round bust, another multi-million dollar disaster?

    Nope. On May 25, something clicked with Nick, and whatever it was would stay with him for more than two months. Markakis would begin making consistent contact and walking in one-tenth of his plate appearances. From that date in late May to his closing out the season at the end of July, Markakis collected 225 at-bats, in which time he produced 75 hits (.333 average), 121 total bases (.538 slugging), and only 37 strikeouts (16.4 K%). This should be the legacy left behind in Delmarva, not the undefined player of his first forty games.

    Markakis didn?t call it quits there, as he joined Orioles? owner Peter Angelos? creation: the Greek National Baseball Team in the Summer Olympics. While the team did not produce a Cinderella story for hometown fans, Markakis played a key role at the plate and the mound, a practice Baltimore should hardly encourage. But Clay Davenport had Markakis? .319 EqA as the 17th best of the summer games, which sure could be a lot worse. A Greek hero, Junior College legend, with only Baltimore superstar left on his to-do list.

    31. Cole Hamels- SP- Philadelphia Phillies- 21

    It?s still hard to get a good read on Hamels, who despite being drafted in 2002 has given us just 117 pro innings. Only sixteen of those came from 2004, in which Hamels only had four spectacular high-A starts. But it appears all injuries are past him, and Will Carroll tells me that Cole is working with Tom House this winter. That should help, but most important will be Hamels just eliminating the notion that he?s lazy. His mechanics are reportedly as good as anyone in the minors, and he has a solid repertoire. I don?t remember where I read this, but I?ll never forget a B.J. Upton quote (thanks Matt), citing the Hamels? change as the best pitch he faced as a pro. Those are the types of quotes that are extremely telling, since Upton once rated favorably on this list. Hamels has top ten potential, and could very well put it all together with one healthy year, though I?m not sure that left arm will ever be trusted again.

    WTNYJanuary 18, 2005
    WTNY 75: 60-46 (Part 3 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    60. Mark Teahen- 3B- Kansas City Royals- 23

    While I don?t believe that Hee Seop Choi should be criticized for being traded twice, I think there is something to the fact that Allard Baird wanted Teahen so bad in the Carlos Beltran trade. This attraction was apparently built through the Royals GM attending multiple games of Teahen, and I do think Baird can be an effective evaluator. Anyway, there is a reason behind that attraction, and those are the solid all-around skills that Teahen possesses. I wouldn?t be the first person to compare Mark with Joe Randa, and I probably will not be the last. In his second trip to AAA, a 233 at-bat (similar to Teahen?s 246) excursion in 1995, Joe Randa hit .275 with a .438 slugging, with 22 walks and 33 strikeouts. Mark hit .280/.447, with 21 walks and 69 strikeouts, which pretty much represents the sole difference between the two. Don?t get too excited about his Texas League numbers, as his BABIP was .402, so those numbers hardly represent his ceiling. But judging by what Joe Randa did as a rookie in 1996 (.303/.351/.433), don?t rule Teahen out in the Rookie of the Year race.

    59. Jesse Crain- RP- Minnesota Twins- 23

    There are not a lot of concerns surrounding Jesse Crain, who has had an amazing past three years. Coming in to the 2004 season, Crain had a 1.29 ERA in both his two years in the minor leagues and final year at Houston. He was also very good this year, even better than what his AAA numbers portray. Eliminating his first 7.1 innings from his numbers, Crain?s ERA would drop from 2.49 to 1.85, his H/9 from 6.8 to 6.2, and HR/9 from 0.88 to 0.62. So, he finished exceptionally, giving reason for his promotion to the Majors, and his eventual success there. Really, my only concern about Crain stems from his low K/9 (4.67) in the Majors, which was really hurt by not striking out a man in his final 6.2 innings. I don?t really know the reasoning behind this, would love any Twin fan?s guess, and there is no reason to expect continued success if his K/9 is that low. But, my expectation is for Crain?s numbers to rise, his ERA to stay low, and him to eventually become a stud closer in the Twin Cities.

    58. J.D. Durbin- SP- Minnesota Twins- 23

    Back-to-back Twins in the rankings, with J.D. taking a small edge over Crain for his monster-sized ceiling. Still, the reason that Durbin is so low is that I?m not particularly sure he?ll reach that ceiling, as his K/9 was low for his stuff both in 2003, and his 2004 half-season (more, I guess) in the Eastern League. But he improved when moving up to AAA, and was even better in a great AFL performance when he reportedly topped 100 mph with his fastball. His HR/9 numbers went back to what they had been in his career before a bad Eastern League second half last year, so there is a lot of hope that Durbin will blossom soon. I think he is a great talent, and if things bounce right, could join Johan Santana atop that rotation for a long time. That is, if Terry Ryan doesn?t screw up his long-term negotiations with his Cy Young.

    57. Felix Pie- OF- Chicago Cubs- 20

    Pretty soon, Felix Pie is going to have to turn the corner, and get over the ?raw? adjective to keep being considered a top prospect. I mentioned this in a previous article, but this is a kid that has not stolen bases (successfully, that is) or walked enough to justify having a low slugging, which is even boosted by the number of triples he hits. That column should slowly decrease as he moves up the ladder, and outfield defense consequently improves. He?s a speed demon and should always hit a few, but that statistics give his ISO a .150 is a bit misleading. Pie?s contact skills have always remained sound, and his outfield defense is stupendous, so there is a lot of reason for hope. But pretty soon, Felix just has to let us stop holding our collective breaths.

    56. Jake Stevens- LHP- Atlanta Braves- 21

    Brad Thompson?s fantastic streak to open the season, 56.2 scoreless innings, should be counted as one of the key moments from the 2004 minor league season. But what this streak shouldn?t diminish is the amazing work that Jake Stevens in the early summer. The Atlanta southpaw will be remembered most for 33 scoreless innings, but I find it was a Thompson-like streak that best portrays his dominance.

    From May 10 to July 15, a streak encompassing twelve appearances, Jake Stevens was the best pitcher in professional baseball. The kid allowed just two earned runs in 58.1 innings over these two months, totaling an ERA of 0.31. His WHIP was an equally solid 0.82, the byproduct of 33 hits and fifteen walks. These two totals should show that Stevens offers both a mix of solid stuff and control, which when used together, can put forth these type of results. The only concern from this streak should be his 57 strikeouts, as with such a dominant streak you might anticipate more whiffs.

    While this streak got Stevens noticed, and even taken out of the tandem-like system employed in Rome at the beginning of the season, it was his consistency that lands him on this list. In his fifteen appearances out side the aforementioned two-month greatness was not a two-faced ugly beast with an ERA closing in on double-digits. Instead it was an ERA of 3.76, with his H/9 under nine, K/9 over, and a K/BB at about 3.50.

    Only three times this past season did Stevens allow more than two runs in an appearance, one of which can be explained by the superpower known as Ian Stewart. The other two were blemishes within ten days of each other, when Jake allowed 14 runs in 10.1 innings towards the end of July. Other than that, all of Stevens? box scores would have looked somewhat impressive to the average fan.

    As it is for all pitchers, Stevens should thrive in spacious Myrtle Beach next season. Unfortunately he won?t be able to escape the Rockie slugger Stewart, who was the reason behind two of Stevens? seven home runs allowed all season. At least he?s getting beat by the best , huh?

    55. Brandon Moss- OF- Boston Red Sox- 21

    Color me undecided on Brandon Moss? prospect status, thus his conservative placement out of the top fifty. I considered entire exclusion once upon a time, but his yearly averages are too high to ignore. Guys seldom go from trying to break the .700 OPS mark in the NYPL to batting titles in low-A, but Brandon Moss is not a ?normal? prospect.

    Looking at his statistics, my first knock on Moss would be his dependency on average to boost his slugging. He has a lot of room left to be desired in ISO, being .176 in the Sally League, and just .120 in his ?stellar? Florida State League promotion. But things are not always as they appear, and even his average could draw the shaky label. Thanks to the Hardball Times, I can tell you that the 2004 AL BABIP average was .303. Moss was ridiculously higher, sporting a .381 BABIP in low-A and (gasp!) .493 in high-A. Given the same number of plate appearances with a .303 BABIP, Moss would have hit just .276 in low-A, and down to .269 in Sarasota. And that slugging wouldn?t smell .500.

    But again, I think there is more than meets the surface here. Moss is apparently a line-drive hitter, and it?s been said (Studes) that line drives help boost BABIP. And there is no questioning Moss? ability to put pressure on the defense, since his worst month featured just a 20.5 K%. His contact skills are apparent, as flukes could not cause 14-game hitting streaks upon arrival to the FSL. They would have at least one of his monthly averages under .300 (lowest was .317 in July). And he probably would have issues trying to match multi-hit games (64) with not (68). Those, my friends, are notable feats.

    In conclusion, I ask the jury to stay in deliberation in sentencing Moss? future. Time will tell if Moss becomes a martyr for the BABIP movement, or the man to prove the importance of LD%.

    54. Denny Bautista- SP- Kansas City Royals- 22

    To continue my ongoing WTNY awards, I hereby label the Denny Bautista trade my WTNY Steal of the Year. I mean, Jason Grimsley to a fourth place team? And the Orioles even have two GMs to prevent each other from messing things up? Yikes, it really makes you wonder if Baltimore will ever be well run. Anyway, I?ve always been particularly fond of Bautista, who to me was the most impressive player in the 2003 Futures Game, of which I attended. Control is always going to be a bit of an issue with Bautista, both his walks and wild pitch numbers have always remained quite high. What the game in 2003 might have proved to me, however, is that naysayers are correct in predicting Bautista?s eventual move to the bullpen. This is because in his inning of work in U.S. Cellular that year, Bautista was throwing a heavy fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s. 2005 will be Denny?s sixth season in the minor leagues, and if he doesn?t really impress, could be his last as a starter. You couldn?t say that his organizations didn?t give him a chance.

    53. Sergio Santos- SS- Arizona Diamondbacks- 21

    I?m worried that because of his 2004 numbers, there will be a misconception of Sergio Santos by the general public. We can all agree that holding his own in the Texas League as a 20-year-old was a remarkable feat, igniting his prospect status. But what I believe some will see is a prospect with unique polish for that age, which upon further inspection, is not true. In fact, it was the raw talent Santos showed that has him on this list, and his lack of polish that powers my belief he should head back to El Paso this year.

    The easiest way to see this is looking at Sergio?s somewhat disastrous BB/K numbers. There was no increase of walks as the season went on, as he finished with just 24 in 89 games. This number demands improvement for any real future success, as does his awful strikeout numbers. After whiffing more than 30% of the time in April, it was nice to see Santos drop it below 25% for the rest of the year, but hovering too far above twenty percent is a scary proposition. I would love to see Sergio spend about 75 more games in El Paso, where he draws about 35 walks and only strikes out in 20% of his at-bats.

    Furthermore, I think even the more basic offensive numbers were a bit misconstrued. El Paso is one of the five or so best hitters? parks in the minors, which must be taken into account when evaluating anyone from this organization. Not only that, but I think too many triples per at-bat unfairly rose Santos? slugging, though the decline there would be minimal. The worst for Santos was his .349 average on balls in play, where the average usually hovers around .300. When taking all these factors into account, I don?t know if the real Santos numbers (park-adjusted and all) are too far from .260/.300/.400.

    Still, don?t let me make you think I?m too down on Santos. This is still a kid that has shown a lot of pop in his bat at a young age, and should be in the desert before too long. His future at shortstop is clouded, though I think it?s important for him offensively to remain up the middle. Since he missed the last 50+ games with a minor tear in his left shoulder, though now fully healthy, I think we owe it to Sergio to see whether or not his last 8 games (12/33, 24 TB, 7K) is any indication of where his future is headed as a player.

    52. Brandon McCarthy- SP- Chicago White Sox- 21

    In his piece entitled ?Wishes for 2005,? Dayn Perry over at Baseball Prospectus requested that ?Brandon McCarthy starts getting more ink/bandwidth.? While it didn?t particularly occur to me that the 2004 minor league strikeouts leader was getting dissed in recognition, I?ll try to appease Dayn?s hope here. Statistically speaking, there is very little reason to doubt McCarthy after his three level rise, and his dozens and dozens of strikeouts. I guess I could nitpick that his control worsened beyond previous levels, that his AA performance seemed to be a bit more ?McCarthy on fire? than his true talents, and that he really wasn?t even that good in the South Atlantic League. But again, that would be nitpicking, since McCarthy has always struck so many out, saw his HR/9 drop in both the Carolina and Southern Leagues, and still has some of the best K/BB numbers in recent memory. Jon Garland could probably call this season his ?do or die? year, because if he falters, he now will have someone waiting for his job.

    51. Curtis Granderson- OF- Detroit Tigers- 24

    I best touched on Granderson?s career in a previous article about him, Nick Swisher and Jeremy Reed, a trio of 2002-drafted outfielders that have taken different routes to the same destination: a probable 2005 job. Granderson?s route includes a third-round draft choice out of UIC, where he had been the most dominant hitter in the Flames? conference. After an award-winning performance in short-season ball, Granderson was purely ?solid? in the Florida State League last year. It was this year, in the Eastern League, where Granderson really took off. But I worry a little bit about Curtis, who was quite dependent on a great August and a good ballpark this year, a stadium that the likes of Mike Rivera and Eric Munson once excelled in. So let?s have careful enthusiasm for Curtis, who if things bounce right, should open the season in center with the Tigers.

    50. Jason Kubel- OF- Minnesota Twins- 23

    You have to feel for Jason Kubel, who undoubtedly deserves my ?Breakout of the Year? award. Playing in the AFL to convince the Twins that he, not Jacque Jones, deserved the right field spot, Kubel tore up his knee. ?Tore up? is a loose expression for saying he tore everything, his ACL, MCL, cartilage?everything. His 2005 season, which was slowly gaining so many expectations, will now have zeroes in every column. His future in the Metrodome outfield is forever in doubt, as he may be resigned to taking the Designated Hitter job when he?s ready. What?s most sad is that he was ready, so ready, and then the unthinkable happened. He could still be the age 28+ Harold Baines, or a number of good DHs, but Kubel will never maximize on the value he made us start to think he had. You have my deepest sympathies Jason, and I pray you can somehow return to full health.

    49. Tim Stauffer- RHP- San Diego Padres- 24

    Forgive me, I just don?t understand this talk of calling Tim Stauffer a poor choice with the 4th overall pick in the 2003 draft. Sure there were better picks after him, but few players in the minors are as close to the Majors as Tim. His season included thoroughly handling both the California and Southern Leagues, en route to the PCL. Such a whirlwind season should hardly be frowned upon, but rather applauded.

    One of my largest pet peeves in prospect tracking is the wrongful promotion of a prospect. Moving from the CL to the SL was an easy choice, what with never allowing three earned runs or a home run in his six starts. But what I?m curious about is why the Padres were so quick to move Stauffer on to AAA. In his first seven starts there, Stauffer had been solid: throwing at least six innings each time, and allowing more than two runs just once. But his last start was merciful, nine hits in just 2.1 innings causing seven earned runs. Does this appear to be the line of a player that has mastered a league?

    Three starts into his AAA career, Stauffer was sent to the Futures Game as part of the American squad. This was my comment regarding his outing the following day:


    Tim Stauffer, the Padres fourth overall selection last year, threw a 1-2-3 top half of the second inning, showing as much dominance as [Francis]. Stauffer seemed the most ready of any pitcher, throwing three pitches in the ten-pitch inning that included strikeouts of Tony Blanco and Jose Cortes. Stauffer was between 90-91 with the fastball, also showing a low-80s change and high-70s, impressive curve.

    My guess is that Stauffer doesn?t usually throw his fastball quite that hard, but you still get an idea on his polished repertoire. Unfortunately he didn?t finish his PCL season like he did that Futures Game performance, though after pitching in Houston, Stauffer would never allow more than three earned runs in a start. His K/9 is a concern for some, but that?s just not the way Stauffer throws.

    Come 2006, Tim Stauffer should begin to be the next NL workhorse. His numbers should never be fantastic, but the Padres could use a 180-inning third starter. And to me, that?s top fifty material.

    48. Jon Lester- LHP- Boston Red Sox- 21

    Last year, the only people I knew that put Jeff Francis in their personal top 50 prospects list was myself and an unnamed front office member that I spoke with. A year later, I consider the Canadian southpaw my prized prediction, as he won the Baseball America Player of the Year award. What I saw in Francis that led to his selection was a beginning of his 2003 season that clouded his overall numbers, along with reports of good stuff.

    This season, my breakout choice is Jon Lester. You could say I?m laying the credibility of this list on his hat, though I don?t like to think one fault could hurt me that much. Still, I completely believe that even despite an ERA higher than 4.00 in the Florida State League, Lester will justify this selection. The Arizona Diamondbacks sure thought so, demanding the left-hander if a trade was to be made involving Randy Johnson. While I would hardly call Jon the sticking point, I think it speaks volume that he was on Arizona?s most wanted list.

    Like Francis a year ago, I?m concerned that early season numbers are likely hindering public opinion of Jon Lester. In his first two starts, the southpaw allowed twelve earned runs in just four innings, getting battered with fifteen hits. After that, he really matured, throwing 86.1 innings with 67 hits, 90 hits, two home runs, and a solid 3.23 ERA. If I was even further selective, and eliminated two poor starts towards the end of the season in August, his ERA falls to 2.27.

    But the Eastern League is far less favorable on mistakes than the Florida State League, so you can expect Lester?s HR/9 to rise. He needs to avoid the occasional slip-up, and show the type of consistency he did from April 20-August 4 if he wants to put himself ahead the Abe Alvarez, Jon Papelbon, Manny Declareman group. He?ll do it, and in the process, catapult onto everyone?s lists next year.

    47. Val Majewski- OF- Baltimore Orioles- 24

    Looking at Val?s resume after this season, I?m both depressed that I didn?t see him coming earlier, and excited about the prospects of what his career could be. He has not had extended failure once, dating back to his two fantastic 1.000+ OPS seasons at Rutgers, and including stops in the NYPL, Sally, Carolina and Eastern Leagues. It looks like he?s going to be a ~.300 hitter, with a good amount of power, and some varying OBPs. He?s yet to really show any considerable consistency in being a selective hitter, but he?s also a hitter that seldom makes mistakes (such low strikeout numbers). Val was hurt while making a September call-up, so they?ll send him to AAA to make sure he?s fine, before firmly supplanting him into their everyday lineup. But it won?t be long before he?s there, that is, unless another Jason Grimsley-type comes on the trade block.

    46. Angel Guzman- SP- Chicago Cubs- 23

    The previous Cub prospect on this list, Felix Pie, was a player that still has a lot of believers, just lacks the numbers. Angel Guzman, on the other hand, has the numbers, but is losing the believers. That?s what any injury associated with the labrum will do, though I must clarify (and thank Will Carroll for noting the distinction) that Angel frayed his labrum, did not tear it. I can?t say whether this makes him a more likely candidate to tear it at a later point, so you?ll understand if the Cubs treat him very carefully in 2005. There is no need to rush him given their rotation and depth of upper-level pitching prospects, so the Cubs should execute caution in the innings pitched column this year. Angel proved just how much better he was than high-A players last year, it will be this season in which he must show he belongs on the North Side.

    WTNYJanuary 17, 2005
    WTNY 75: 75-61 (Part 2 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    75. Ryan Sweeney- OF- Chicago White Sox- 20

    I saved the final spot on this list for a player with loads of potential, but very little real output. For a prospect that is having excuses made for him by everyone else, with just Spring Training providing a glimpse of their upside. So, my final decision came down to James Loney vs. Ryan Sweeney.

    Against my better judgment, I went with Sweeney to round out this year?s WTNY 75. Like Loney, Ryan got his name in the paper a lot of times during March, when both Ken Williams and Ozzie Guillen were singing his praise. There are a lot of quotes that now look embarrassing, perhaps most being the Sox? temptation with sending Sweeney to the Southern League. That would have spelled disaster.

    When I look at Sweeney?s numbers, there are reasons I see why everyone is so optimistic about his upside. Despite being one of the youngest players on my list, Sweeney hit .283 in the Carolina League. Only once did he strike out more than 15% of the time in a month, and he was between 10 and 11 for much of the second half of the season. I?ve heard fantastic things about his play in right field, and he even filled in as the emergency center fielder for Winston-Salem a few times.

    But, I just can?t get over the power. In both April and August, Sweeney?s extra-base hit column was filled with just two doubles, leading to monthly ISOs of .030 and .022. He didn?t hit his first home run until May 11, and only hit seven all season long. After July 20, Sweeney hit just six XBH, which even ignores that half of those were in his final five games. Sweeney was the King of the Single, not something you would expect from a country boy with Iowa blood.

    It?s time intelligence be used with Sweeney?s handling, as the Sox should keep Ryan in Winston-Salem until the power starts to come. Here?s to hoping that Sweeney and Chris Young show North Carolina their own version of the Bash Brothers in 2005.

    74. Mike Megrew- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    I?ll probably draw some criticism for choosing Megrew over some of his fellow Dodgers (Broxton, Loney, LaRoche), but I think Megrew offers the best combination of upper-level success with a considerable upside. His peripherals were better than Broxton, minus the walks, and remember I?m a believer that control can be learned. He?s young, large (6-6, 210), and a leftie, all of which always help improve prospect status. I?m a bit concerned that a large park might have boosted Megrew?s stats a bit, but I think most of his numbers were well-earned. The Dodger rotation looks quite solid for next year, and though Miller, Billingsley, Jackson (at least) are all in front of him, a September debut should not be ruled out.

    Editor's Note: Since writing this, I learned from a reader that Megrew has had Tommy John surgery since the 2004 season ended. I think it's safe to say that this takes Megrew not only out of my top 75, but he would not have even made the Honorable Mention either. Sorry guys, I should have caught this.

    73. Aaron Hill- SS- Toronto Blue Jays- 23

    It was a rather large decision for me to rank Hill over other middle infield talents such as Erick Aybar and Omar Quintanilla, but I just have a hard time giving up on Aaron?s power. He?s never been a home run hitter though, so it?s possible that he?ll never break the .150 ISO barrier. You have to love his low strikeout rates and great selectivity, and he hit for solid average in his first year at AA. Ultimately I think the Russ Adams/Aaron Hill debate will end as everyone predicted, with Adams moving to second and Hill becoming a regular at short. I don?t think either projects to be a star, but I could see Hill having a Rich Aurilia career for sure. And to me, considering how long he stayed a regular with the Giants, that?s quite high praise.

    72. Zach Duke- SP- Pittsburgh Pirates- 22

    One of the final additions to this list, it was hard for me to leave off the 2004 ERA champion. It wasn?t hard last year when Jon Connolly did it last year, since it was low-A and his stuff is underwhelming (and I like Connolly), while Duke is a bit more intriguing. His strikeout numbers were great in Carolina, and his home run numbers were among the best on this list. But I didn?t like how his K/9 declined in the Eastern League (6.3), and as Mike Gullo said, ?I've heard plenty of conflicting stories about his stuff. Some say he's an 87 mph arm, while others say he's in the low 90's.? Recent Pittsburgh prospects have hit the wall by AA or AAA recently, so the test will come this year for Duke, who has yet to not succeed at any level (career 2.22 ERA).

    71. Anthony Reyes- SP- St. Louis Cardinals- 23

    For no other reason than great control, drafting Reyes in the fifteenth round of the 2003 draft was a great move by the St. Louis Cardinals. Anthony had never been inspiring at USC: his career ERA finished at 3.89, his H/9 was never below nine, his K/9 never above. This is why Reyes exploding on the scene is so surprising. Sure he was never completely healthy in his last two years at USC, but in twelve AA starts to close out the year, his H/9 was 7.5 and K/9 was 12.4. The fact that his BB/9 dropped below 2.0 shouldn?t be shocking, as that was always his calling card on the West Coast. Everything in me says that Reyes will fall apart, that his ceiling is no higher than that of a fourth starter, that the Southern League helped him like it did Brad Thompson to begin the year. But wouldn?t I be an idiot if I left one of AA?s best second-half pitchers off my list?

    70. Jon Papelbon- SP- Boston Red Sox- 24

    Ask Eric Gagne, and he?ll tell you that his move to relief was done to increase velocity. His pitches were not sustainable long-term, creating a weakness of endurance as a starting pitcher. Jon Papelbon was found to have no such problem, which is the reason that the Red Sox decided to move him the opposite way ? from closer to starter ? a year after drafting him.

    Dominance is a term usually bestowed upon closers, but Papelbon kept that word in his biography as a starting pitcher this year. In thirteen of his 24 starts, Jon allowed one or less earned run, accounting for 76 of his 129.2 innings. During this time he allowed only 41 hits and 20 walks, while striking out 87 and not giving up a home run. To be this type of pitcher, even just 60% of the time, shows that there is a lot of promise in Papelbon?s future.

    And while I would expect the other forty percent to be disastrous, Papelbon showed good things even while pitching poorly. His other 11 starts made up just 53.2 innings, mostly due to not making it through one inning in his third start, and not pitching 5 innings thrice. Still, in those fifty-plus innings, Jon managed to strike out 66, while walking just twenty-three. His H/9 was just above 9.00, and he still just allowed six home runs. Still, Papelbon can not continue to succeed if he is a 5.37 ERA pitcher 40% of the time.

    With Papelbon, Jon Lester, Abe Alvarez and Manny Declaremen, there are a lot of bright spots in the farm. There will be debate whether Lester or Papelbon is top dog, and supporters of the latter will point to the fact that he only allowed more than three runs in a start twice. But Lester supporters can claim that Papelbon?s ERA is a bit deceiving, since his RA would be 2.98, and his relievers stranded all 7 runners they inherited. Either way, you can bet that Red Sox brass is happy there even is an argument at the top, after lacking any murmurs from below for so long.

    69. Jairo Garcia- RP- Oakland Athletics- 22

    Oakland flirted with the idea of turning Garcia into a reliever for awhile, giving him bullpen stints since he was seventeen in 2000. After his first experience with full-season ball yielded a terrible K/9 (6.0) in 2003, the organization decided to try and keep Garcia?s strengths while increasing his velocity. Good decision. Unfortunately I missed seeing Garcia in Kane County by a matter of days, though it didn?t take the A?s long to realize he was above that level. After 38 appearances spanned over low-A and AA, Garcia had struck out 81 in 49 innings while allowing 0 home runs. I saw him be pretty inconsistent in the Futures Game, though one of his mid-80s sliders was Major League closer quality. His build is very similar to Octavio Dotel, and he would be quite lucky to learn from him this spring.

    68. Hayden Penn- SP- Baltimore Orioles- 20

    Not the average teenager, it was Penn?s poise and control that took him from the South Atlantic League to Bowie at nineteen. His numbers won?t amaze you and his strikeout numbers are far from dazzling. Hayden?s K/BB was 3.0 in the Carolina League, and he?ll need that type of ratio to justify under nine strikeouts per game. But he?ll be back in the Eastern League next year at twenty, with the chance of breaking the Major League rotation when he proves himself ready. Baltimore hardly offers a lot of barriers, and the fact that Penn jumped so many prospects to be the top Oriole pitcher is saying something. And even if he labors a bit next year, I think it?s safe to say he has time to figure it out.

    67. Chris Young- OF- Chicago White Sox- 21

    Instincts. This is what influences my choice here, a difficult one since I know the harsh criticism that comes with off-wing opinions. Much of prospect analysis, no matter what sabermetrics say, is speculation. This is where the highest of my speculation lies.

    But let?s focus on the facts with Chris Young here. At 21, he was older than a lot of South Atlantic League opponents. His game is a fairly raw one though, one that will need time to become Major League-caliber. But remember, Mike Cameron (my working comp to Young, also seen in BA), didn?t play 100G until he was 24, or have 400AB until 26. Time is on Young?s side.

    Offensively, I view Young being a force at the plate, a threat to go yard on every swing. This, in turn, causes a lot of strikeouts, 146 during the 2004 season. In fact, only once all season did Young go four games without a whiff, a 4/12 stint in early July. But some times he was fairly under control, ?only? striking out 21.5% of the time. And he walked a lot that month, a season-high eighteen times.

    Young showed a normal prospect flaw besides strikeouts as well, that of the ?late start, early exit? variety. Accompanied with his best three months (May-July) below are the statistics of hot prospect Eric Duncan?s in a similar number of low-A at-bats:

    Name AB AVE ISO BB K%
    Young 283 .276 .258 50 29.0
    Duncan 288 .260 .219 38 29.2

    I?m not suggesting Young is the better prospect ? ignoring age and Young?s other months is ignorant ? but it is an interesting tidbit to chew on.

    Despite an abysmal ability to make consistent contact, Young is an underrated prospect. His Isolated Power can go toe-to-toe with any Sally League hitter (don?t forget the Sally League?s other Young), and he combines that with solid speed and highly regarded defense.

    My instincts tell me Young could be better than Brian Anderson, the White Sox top prospect, but at some point my senses step in.

    66. Dan Johnson- 1B- Oakland Athletics- 25

    What more does Oakland want out of this guy? It?s bad enough that an organizational soldier that bought so much into their philosophy like Graham Koonce hardly got any notice, now they have a legitimate prospect with the same mentality getting shut out. And not just legit either, the player that won both PCL MVP and playoffs MVP in the same league, he?s above the league. But Scott Hatteberg, who?s skill set has declined since Moneyball while his contract value has rose, will likely get the majority of at-bats at first base. If I were Billy Beane, and I?m nowhere near that intelligent, I would hope Carlos Delgado signs not in New York, so he can trade Scott Hatteberg in a deal to acquire Mike Cameron. And then Dan Johnson, the most ready player in the minors, will get his due.

    65. Mike Hinckley- SP- Washington Nationals- 22

    Following the Bartolo Colon and Cliff Floyd trades, the Expos/Nationals franchise lost anything near depth in prospects. And then Clint Everts got hurt in the middle of the season, eliminating their top, star-powered prospect. So, all that is really left for Jim Bowden to play with is Mike Hinckley, a player I really like. He hasn?t really struggled at a level since the Gulf Coast League out of high school, and his effortless trip through high-A and AA was something else this year. Hinckley?s ceiling is no higher than a third starter or so, but he looks very capable of contributing to Washington by 2006. He?ll need to keep those HR numbers down, like he did after his promotion, to get the most out of his exceptional ability.

    64. Josh Barfield- 2B- San Diego Padres- 22

    If I?ve previously labeled Jeff Mathis and Adam Wainwright the most disappointing players of 2004, Josh Barfield has to be considered the most overvalued. After an MVP season in the California League, Barfield became loved by prospect evaluators, what with his .919 OPS at a premium position. What we ignored however, was the league and park in which Barfield played, and his .400 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play, average is normally right around .300)

    This season, we got exactly what we deserved. And that?s to say, Josh proved his skills aren?t really that different from those of his father after all. Remember, Jesse finished his career with a .256/.335/.466 line, striking out in more than 25% of his career at-bats. Josh is better than his father most in that final category, as his K% declined in each month this year, showing he was learning the level quite well. His BABIP was near average this year, a little below, so I think Josh could likely settle around the .256 BA his father sported.

    After a rough start in which Barfield hit .241 with a .395 slugging through his first 59 games, it seemed as if he started to figure it out. In the next 55 games, Barfield would hit .268/~.350/.480, only whiffing 16.7% of the time. He also walked 25 times in those 55 games, showing improvements in both categories. His power was far more consistent that it had been all year, with twelve doubles and ten home runs in 198 at-bats. It seemed that Josh had turned the corner at AA, and proved his mettle.

    Then the bottom fell out in his last 24 games, when his OPS would never have topped .600, and his strikeouts rose to 24.2% of his total at-bats. He only hit a home run once in his last 136 at-bats, falling right back into the problem he started the year with. Josh will begin the year in AA again, where the organization hopes he?ll become the player he was from mid-June to mid-August, showing polish and power up the middle. Who would have thought that Mark Loretta would leave large shoes to fill?

    63. Edwin Encarnacion- 3B- Cincinnati Reds- 22

    I have written this before, but one of the major disheartening things about Encarnacion is the lack of confidence shown in him within the Cincinnati franchise. The Austin Kearns experiment was just a bad idea, though I don?t think ill-intended, as Dave O?Brien simply wanted to get the most out of his glut of four outfielders. And the Joe Randa signing will give Encarnacion, who is still a bit raw, another season to hone his skills. Mostly, it?s time for some of those doubles to start going over the wall, and Encarnacion?s slugging rise enough to be justifiable from a corner position. Though I guess given this club?s recent hot corner problems, even a .794 OPS would be acceptable here.

    62. Chris Burke- 2B- Houston Astros- 25

    Like Dan Johnson before him, it would be a waste for Burke not to start at second base for the Astros next year. Showing unique confidence that they didn?t in Jason Lane, Astro upper management didn?t even take a shot at re-signing Jeff Kent, seemingly giving the job to Burke. Then reports out of Houston came the team was thinking about moving Craig Biggio back to second, which would be an offensive disaster given how far Biggio has declined, and just how good Burke has become. His PCL slugging percentage will probably not be matched in the Majors, but I view Chris being a premiere two-hole hitter, always contributing a solid average with a bunch of doubles. His stolen base ability is also quite sound, so expect Phil Garner to run him wild if he gets a chance next year.

    61. Ervin Santana- SP- Anaheim Angels- 22

    The first of a group of injured players on this list, it should be no surprise that Santana comes last, largely because I?ve never been particularly fond of him. But he?s got a live arm with a history of success, so I?ll concede that the Angels are lucky to have his arm. Really, Ervin?s done very little to give reason for me to cast doubt on him, so now it?s time to stay healthy for a year, and make some rumbles on the Major League level. With Troy Percival gone, I could see Santana groomed into a set-up role if health continues to be a problem, and his great fastball/breaking ball combo could work wonders there.

    WTNYJanuary 14, 2005
    WTNY 75: Honorable Mention (1 of 6)
    By Bryan Smith

    For a prospect evaluator like myself, this time of year is when the pressure rises on what I type. The credibility of a baseball writer is judged by two things: how he expresses something, and the fact within his statement. Will Carroll wrote a great piece in response to the recent scouts v. stats debate, saying about his contacts, "It allows me to do what I do and without those, I'm done." Guys like Will and Gammons, they are judged by both the number and credibility of their contacts. For me, it's all in my prospect list.

    This is why the next two weeks are extremely important ones for me, as today I begin my trek down my rankings. Today I'll begin with my honorable mention, a group of 25 names, with next week tackling 15 names a day as we count down to number one. While not today, each day's list of fifteen will have about 5-7 players detailed, as I did with Dioner Navarro last week. The best of the best at WTNY in the coming days, my friends.

    If you are unfamiliar with my lists, I should explain a few of the differences in my rankings, compared to other sites. First, this year I am not ranking any first-year players. This really stems from point two, which is my heavy weight of statistics in my analysis. Because of limitations in the contacts department, and the importance I weigh in not using others' contacts, I rank with what I have. Players that were drafted in 2004 leave so much to be seen, it's hard for me to get a good feel for where they stand. Finally, unlike your friends at Baseball America, you won't be seeing Mauer, Edwin Jackson or Russ Adams on my lists. Any other questions? Just ask.

    As I said earlier, today will be the 25 honorable mention names I selected. Days ago my honorable mention list stood at 70 names, but I shortened it to twenty-five for both brevity and to conveniently create a top 100. But these 25 names will not be ranked today, instead I'll just present them alphaebetically. Drop questions about these players in comments, and while I might answer some, I'm going to try and piece together a gigantic mailbag for after the completion of this project. Enjoy!

    Erick Aybar- SS- Anaheim Angels- 21

    Conveniently, we begin with one of my most controversial selections. Honestly, Aybar was the last player taken off the top 75, as he was engaged in an internal battle with a player coming Monday. I'll be bold enough to say that in my mind, Aybar's 2004 season was a slight regression from where he was in 2003, he was just helped by a hitter's park in a hitter's league. If you want to view the way that the California League can boast a player's skills, view Josh Barfield. Anyway, Aybar is one of the few players in the minors where being triples dependent isn't such a bad thing, since his speed will probably allow him to sustain at least solid totals in the Majors. His baserunning and defense are both extremely flawed, and that latter (along with the Orlando Cabrera signing) will likely send Erick to second. The best comparison I can think of (and I'm big on comparisons) is Cristian Guzman, though he was in the Minnesota by 21. Judging by what his former-equal Alberto Callaspo did in AA, it probably is going to take Aybar a little longer.

    Jonathan Broxton- SP- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    This can be the first example of my praise of Logan White, but rest assured, it will not be the last. I don't care what anybody else says, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best farm system in baseball. With such a mix of legitimate prospects and depth, it's a wonder Logan isn't getting interviews all over the place, and I'm looking at you Tampa. As for Broxton, his ranking would likely be higher if not for the loud murmurs that he's a candidate to make the switch to the bullpen. His control improved late in the season, quieting such talk, but such a big body will always harbor those debates. His performance in Vero Beach, like just about everyone that pitches there, was dominant. Care to be freaked out? Try comparing Broxton's peripherals (7.7 H/9, 3.0 W/9, 10.1 K/9, 1.19 WHIP) with those of Eric Gagne in the same stadium (7.6 H/9, 3.1 W/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.19 WHIP). Yikes, now I'm gonna have all the Dodgers fans calling the front office to get him switched. Sorry DePo.

    Melky Cabrera- OF- New York Yankees- 20

    I have never made it a secret of my obsession with Melky Cabrera, dating back to his days with Battle Creek earlier this past season. To me, he's been the Yankees second-best prospect for months, with or without Pudgito. His numbers show the general trend of what happens to a player when he moves up the ladder, but in no way would I call his FSL performance a drop-off. His ISO rose to .150, probably park-related, and really a drop in average was the only poor sign. You have to love a player with a K% (K/AB) under 20, and he was at 13.5 in the Midwest League, and 17.7 in Tampa. Both, for such a young player, to fare this well in full-season ball is quite the accomplishment. He's a few walks away from being a clone of Bernie Williams at the same age, so that should get all you Bombers fans salivating. Given the problem in centerfield and Duncan's block, I really see no player in this organization that's more likely to stay with New York other than Cabrera.

    Robinson Cano- 2B- New York Yankees- 22

    For some reason I've always had an internal bias with Cano, though one particular Yanks fan that reads this site has made that notion a hard one to keep. Well, so have his numbers. He really showed his dominance over Navarro as a player this year, looking better than Dioner in both Trenton and Columbus. His performance in AAA was far less than dazzling, but even a .144 ISO has to be respected given his youth and his position. While the Yankees signed Tony Womack to a two-year, $4 million deal this winter, they could have done far worse than have handed Cano the job. I don't see his ceiling ever being over an .800 OPS, with a line looking like .280/.340/.420 probably about what type of player he can be. Looking at this position across the league, that's a commodity that many teams would like to buy.

    Elijah Dukes- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- 21

    Another player I'm fascinated by, I was shocked to read Dukes in the teens on what site's list, though I do recognize he could fly up lists next season. Everyone you talk to recognizes the immense amount of talent that Dukes has, citing maturity issues as the one problem that will likely hold him back. I don't buy it. In my mind, Elijah has five-tool talent that could even rival that of Lastings Milledge. If the power develops like it should, Dukes has the potential to be a 30/30 player in the Major Leagues, and give the Devil Rays a legitimate reason to trade Rocco Baldelli. Lord, wouldn't you want to have controlling interest of the team that could one day start Carl Crawford, Dukes and Delmon Young in their outfield? The team will likely challenge him, as well as Young, with a promotion to the Southern League next year. That's quite far from the help that the California League gives hitters, so next year should provide a true test of Dukes' character.

    Richie Gardner- SP- Cincinnati Reds- 23

    Following a less-than-stellar career at the University of Arizona, Gardner was quite the stud across both the Carolina and Southern Leagues in 2004. The Voros McCracken's of the world will likely point to Gardner as an example for drafting college players, as he could be contributing by mid-year, only two years after he was drafted. Still, given the room Richie has left to be desired in the K/9 department, it's still quite possible that scouts will have the last laugh here. Gardner's value is netted solely in his ability to control his pitches, as his W/9 was under 2.0 in both leagues last season. That's far lower than what he showed in his junior season at Arizona, making you wonder if 2004 was a fluke, or whether Cincinnati might be improving their teaching on the farm.

    Ryan Garko- C/1B- Cleveland Indians- 24

    Failure is, well, one thing that Ryan Garko does not have to worry about. A four-year player at Stanford, his OPS was at or above .995 in his three final seasons as a Cardinal. Success at the plate continued this season, as Garko played in three different levels, and though his brief trial in AAA is hard to judge, never really seemed challenged. I've said of Garko before that he's the type of player that could dominate AAA next year, have a great second half with the Indians, and make the BP cover in 2006. Then, as Josh Phelps before him, fall flat on his face. All kidding aside, Garko is your typical poor-defensive, big bat catcher: he'll bust up lefties, and probably like Matt LeCroy, even make a case for 500 AB. He could become Ben Broussard's platoon-mate as soon as the Juan Gonzalez trial fails.

    Tom Gorzelanny- SP- Pittsburgh Pirates- 22

    Luckily for Tom, since he was born 11 days after July 1, he'll still be a 22-year-old in the stat books next season. You could say his Sally League dominance last year could be explained by such a late birthday, but since his college resume doesn't boast a big name, you can understand why the Pirates sent him there. He quickly proved he was far too good for the league, posting great numbers across the board, though 9 home runs in 93 innings is actually a lot given his great half-season. As for his Carolina League performance, I think his ERA is quite higher than the way he pitched, since his H/9 was low, K/9 high, and W/9 was nothing to really be concerned about. Even despite his age, the Pirates should be conservative with Tom, sending him back to Lynchburg to prove I'm right about that inflated ERA.

    J.J. Hardy- SS- Milwaukee Brewers- 22

    This was a bandwagon I never got on, so you can't say I ditched the guy when his shoulder really got bad last season. The scouting reports I read, on fantastic defense and a solid overall player, they prompted me to call him "Royce Clayton at best" last season. Their minor league careers correlated pretty nicely until this year, as both were playing in AA at age 21, and their averages were within one point of each other. Hardy's 100 at-bats in AAA were far better than Clayton's 200 at the same age, though the two seem fairly consistent with their walk totals. This does not bode well for Hardy, as Royce did not reach the 40 walk plateau in a season until turning 28, making .346 the OBP high of his career. In fact, it was that season for Royce, in which he hit .288/.346/.445, that best represents the player I think Hardy could become. The shoulder injury only helps my case that it will take him a long time to adjust to the Majors.

    John Hudgins- SP- Texas Rangers- 23

    I wish I had saved the e-mail desperately. My respect for Jamey Newberg should not be news to anyone, and his description of Hudgins' performance pitching against Felix Hernandez should be a must-read for all prospect followers. Newberg said, in my attempt to paraphrase him correctly, said for that day Hudgins was Greg Maddux. He showed such precision in his final season at Stanford, though he was never more than a solid pitcher in his Pac-10 career. And that's really what I see in Hudgins, as a player very similar in style to Tim Stauffer with the San Diego Padres. He's going to be an innings eater in the Majors, you can bank on that, though he'll probably never be the strength of the Rangers' rotation. Still, given their inability to find such players now, I think Arlington will be welcoming Hudgins' arrival at some point in the 2005 season. I'll say his chance of reaching his ceiling is as high as anyone in my honorable mention.

    Andy LaRoche- 3B- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    Other than a low average in the second half of his season, at a level higher than what he began, there's really no reason to dislike Andy LaRoche as a prospect. His ISO was still quite high in Vero Beach, which as we've previously mentioned is a pitcher's park, and he continued to show fairly good patience. Considering how long it took Joel Guzman to adjust to the stadium, I think Dodgers' fans will understand that it's best for LaRoche to be sent back to high-A beginning next season. At some point, you'll probably see him move up to Jacksonville, with Blake DeWitt filling his shoes. Did I mention this system is loaded yet? Well, LaRoche has far more power potential than his brother does, and if he keeps his strikeouts down and walk numbers solid, he could turn out to be a rich man's version of Adam still.

    Brandon League- RP- Toronto Blue Jays- 22

    Never have I been considered to be particularly nice to relief prospects, so you'll understand when you only see two in my top 75. League is probably number three, though I think there are some bad qualities you have to worry about here. While his HR/9 was always solid in the minors, making him a good candidate to relief, at some point Blue Jays fans should be concerned that his K/9 has not reached 8.0 since the Pioneer League. He's yet to show the dominance on the mound that many relievers do shortly after their switch, though League certainly impressed onlookers upon his arrival in Toronto. League has great control and should be equivalent to the 2003 (not 2004) version of Dan Kolb statistically, though his arsenal is different. Now that J.P. traded away Adam Peterson, the doors are wide open for League to land some saves next season.

    Francisco Liriano- LHP- Minnesota Twins- 21

    Everyone has their favorite Twin prospect to break out next season, from Scott Baker to Scott Tyler to Adam Harben to Alex Romero to Liriano. While I agree with Romero as well, I think Liriano has the chance to take as large a step forward as anyone on this list next season. Remember, this was his first season back from arm injury, and he still showed a lot of great stuff and hope for the future. His ERA of 4.00 at Fort Myers was definitely too high, and it's a bit problematic that his H/9 numbers were so high. But I think his strikeouts are indicative that his great stuff was at least some of the way back this year, and they should only improve as he returns to New Britain this year. A loaded Minnesota rotation will give him time to develop, though I do think Liriano could be pushing the envelope, and give Aaron a new "Free ____" caimpaign, as early as this year.

    James Loney- 1B- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    We heard the wrist excuses a year ago, when Loney was showing no power in a pitcher's park as a teenager. But then he came to Spring Training in 2004 and turned everyone's heads, making them proclaim that since his injury was healed, he was ready to start showing why he was a first-round pick in 2002. And then they sent him to the Southern League, and he regressed. Talk of the wrist injury not being healed resurfaced, but I'm just sick of the excuses. I like the low strikeout numbers, but at this point that's all I really like. He doesn't walk quite enough, and hasn't shown the ability to hit for average that was supposed to be his calling card. And his power? I really think he hit more home runs in the first week of exhibition games last spring than he did all year with Jacksonville. But people, even our own Jon Weisman, keep swearing by his talent, so I can't write him off quite yet.

    Sean Marshall- SP- Chicago Cubs- 22

    Probably, at this point, my favorite Cubs prospect. After a solid career at Virginia Commenwealth, Marshall dominated the Midwest League in seven starts this season. Everyone forgets that, though performances by John Danks and Matt Chico seem to be remembered by everyone. Well, Marshall was then promoted to the Southern League to fill Ricky Nolasco's vacancy, completely skipping over Daytona. This is a unique move by a franchise that really babies prospects, but I guess acceptable given Marshall's collegiate background. Well he was hurt within six poor starts at West Tenn, and didn't resurface until the AFL, when he immediately kept showing the control that's his calling card. That left him in those AA starts, and are essential to his success, as he'll probably give up his fair share of hits. The Cubs are flush with mid-level pitching prospects, so it's easy for Marshall to get lost in it all. But I have a feeling that in a year, Cubs fans will be calling for Marshall to take the Glendon Rusch role at the back of that rotation.

    Jeff Mathis- C- Anaheim Angels- 22

    I recently named the former first-rounder my disappointment of 2004, so I refer you to that entry for my extended thoughts on Mathis. In short, this is a player with a lot of talent still, though his performance last year was terrible. His development is going to hold sabermetric favorite Michael Napoli up a little bit, but it's essential for the Angels to send Mathis back to AA next year. Let's hope he built enough endurance tihs winter to sustain a whole season of catching in the Texas League.

    Clint Nageotte- P- Seattle Mariners- 24

    It was hard to label Nageotte a starting pitcher or relief one, because what he's doing now and what everyone swears he'll be doing at one point are far different things. Nageotte, like his buddy Travis Blackley, struggled mightily in both Tacoma and Seattle this past season. Neither was ready for the Majors at all, and both pitched far worse after returning to AAA following their demotion. But Nageotte's slider gives him a lot more future value than Blackley, since he should be converted to relief pretty soon. The Mariners return on pitching prospects lately (Nageotte, Ryan Anderson, Blackley, Rafael Soriano, Rett Johnson, Gil Meche, etc) is disastrous, and they should realize that the treatment their giving Felix Hernandez should be instilled on all players. Anyways, I think Nageotte will soon be converted into a two-pitch reliever, where he could have great success in both the set-up and middle relief slots.

    Dioner Navarro- C- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    Refer here for my thoughts on Dioner.

    Fernando Nieve- SP- Houston Astros- 22

    Like Erick Aybar, Fernando Nieve was the final player I took off my top 75 list. It saddened me to do so, because I kind of liked bragging about Nieve, who was on my breakout list a year ago. His season in the Carolina League was overlooked because of a 7.1 K/9, though all his other peripherals suggested good things. An extremely poor winter helped me decide he would be the pitcher to leave my 75, though I still think he has an extremely high ceiling. His three starts in Round Rock went extremely well, giving a lot of hope for the future. Watch him next year, because I think his '05 performance will tell us whether or not he's destined for the Houston rotation, or just another failed Houston pitching prospect. Part of me wishes for both.

    Renyel Pinto- SP- Chicago Cubs- 22

    For me, Pinto is one of the hardest prospects in all of Prospectdom to read. First of all he's a Cub prospect, so that always makes me take a second to put it all in perspective and not overrate him a little bit. Secondly, his H/9 and K/9 numbers were as good as anyone on this list last year, making me think Pinto could be a very powerful leftie in a rotation stacked with powerful right-handers. But the worry with Pinto is control, as his W/9 was on the wrong side of the 4.5 mark last year. Like a lot of prospects with his numbers, there are whispers that he's better suited for relief, which actually wouldn't be so bad. How about this comparison:

    Player A: 6.2 H/9, 4.0 W/9, 9.7 K/9 in AA at 21
    Player B: 6.8 H/9, 4.6 W/9, 11.4 K/9

    Who is Player A? None other than Arthur Rhodes, who I think (given build, style, numbers) should serve as Pinto's running comparison now.

    Omar Quintanilla- MI- Oakland Athletics- 23

    You see that position I listed for Quintanilla there? That's no mistake, as it's a pretty common thought that Q will move to second both because of defensive shortcomings and a certain Rookie of the Year. I was telling Will Carroll the other day that Q is a poor man's Khalil Greene, though his best year at Texas was only a bit better than Greene's freshman season at Clemson. Still, I think the two are very compareable in an average sense, with Omar possibly being an even better contact hitter. There's no question that Greene will outpower Quintanilla, a feat that Rich Lederer could probably handle. A Chavez-Crosby-Q-Johnson infield would be very solid for Billy Beane in 2006, when you have to figure the A's to be a favorite for the World Series.

    Jarrod Saltalamacchia- C- Atlanta Braves- 20

    Given the rigors of the catching position and such a long season, you have to credit Jarrod with the way he handled himself in the 2004 season. He didn't do anything spectacular, though he showed talent both as a hitter and a receiver. You have to love a switch-hitter behind the plate, and even the best in baseball (Victor Martinez) wasn't in high-A until he was 22, Jarrod will be at 20. Salty needs to cut down on his strikeouts, since his K% was a fairly poor 25.6 last season. The average could use a boost, though is his .270/.350/.420 line continues, I don't think anyone can really complain. The largest worry for Salty should be the Braves logjam of catchers with Johnny Estrada and Brian McCann, in which he falls third. Still, the Braves will wait as long as they can to see if Jarrod blossoms into the hitter that led to his high draft selection.

    Nate Schierholtz- 3B- San Francisco Giants- 21

    Very similar statistically to the aforementioned Andy LaRoche, with more strikeouts, less walks, and a better *looking* performance in high-A. I emphasize looking, because really it was Andy's average that's worse, but Schierholtz was the one that saw the large drop in ISO. And even with such a large SLG loss, much of his California League power numbers were dependent upon nine triples, which is hardly sustainable. But he's a legitimate power hitter, that shouldn't be the concern here, which should be BB/K, a combined 33/93 in 2004. I can't decide whether it's a good idea to push Nate to Norwich next year and really test him, or leave him in California a little longer, though I'm actually leaning towards the former. They need to figure out whether he should be groomed as Edgardo Alfonzo's successor or not.

    Steven Shell- SP- Anaheim Angels- 22

    King of the peripheral. Despite a high ERA and HR/9 due to a bad park we've already spoken about, Shell doesn't come up on a lot of radars. But he should, if not for his ability to eat a lot of innings, then for his 190/40 K/BB. That's about as good as you'll find in the minor leagues, though reports on Shell's pitching aren't quite as good. I wish he allowed less home runs, mostly because of the emphasis I place in Dayn's study, but it's always been a problem of Shell's. Watch him in the Texas League, where many an Angel prospect proved to be a failure.

    Joey Votto- 1B- Cincinnati Reds- 21

    Interestingly enough, we close with perhaps the guy that would be #76 on my list. I really like Joey Votto, who's season wasn't really noticed because of the press that Brian Dopirak got. But quietly, Votto was playing well enough in the Midwest League to draw a promotion to Carolina, where he continued his hitting ways. His power needs a bit of refining, but Votto already has the contact and discipline skills of a Major Leaguer. Call it a feeling that the strikeouts really won't decline and he'll be slotted for 100+ annually in the Majors, but that will be swallowable when some of those doubles start going over the fence. And it's going to happen, making Votto the reason Sean Casey should not get another extension.

    That's all for now folks.

    WTNYJanuary 13, 2005
    All Tied Up
    By Bryan Smith

    One story hidden beneath the overtold Carlos Beltran signing is how it directly affects Lastings Milledge. While you can bet the Mets will be thanking their lucky stars for landing the Majors' top five-tool talent, they immediately put the future of the minors' top 5-tooler in jeopardy. The former first-rounder has as unique a history as they come - best chronicled by Derek Zumsteg - but now has fallen victim to an all but too familiar story: the prospect block.

    Now you won't hear me saying the Beltran signing was a poor one because it blocks a prospect that won't be ready until 2007, that would be ridiculously foolish. Instead, I think it's useful to keep an eye on what's happening in the Majors, because this will effect the organization's handling of a certain prospect. In this case, Milledge becomes one of two things: (1) trade bait, (2) candidate for a position change in the near future.

    Given the fact that Mets' management is making defensive star Mike Cameron move for Beltran, I think it's safe to say that Milledge will never play 50 games up the middle in Shea. The question now is which previously-NYM prospect traveled route will Lastings follow: Jose Reyes or Scott Kazmir? The former was forced to move from shortstop to second base after his rookie season, to make room for the Mets prize of the '03 offseason, Kaz Matsui. Kazmir, who's story has been beaten to a bloody pulp, was traded in a deadline deal because of a cloudy future in the Big Apple.

    The answer to that question is impossible to answer, it's quite possible even Omar Minaya has no idea. If Lastings continues to remain in the highest echelon of prospects, you can bet he'll be the Mets right fielder in a few years. But any sign of injury, failure, or even immaturity could end in Milledge being dealt away. It's not as if Minaya's previous history has shown a tendency to hold onto prospects, given the quick departure of Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee.

    Milledge is just one player that has seen that happen to him recently, as we talked about Carlos Quentin and Conor Jackson with the Diamondbacks report on Tuesday. Some in comments included possibilities for both players to get time in Arizona, though I really can't imagine such a scenario. Like I said on Tuesday, I believe the most logical situation is for Quentin to play right, Shawn Green left, and Luis Gonzalez at first base. Jackson could definitely be packing his bags if the Diamondbacks are in the thick of things come July (I just thought of this -- how good does Aubrey Huff for Jackson and Chad Tracy sound for Tampa?).

    A pair of shortstop signings this winter will definitely force some changes on the farm. Some think the Boston Red Sox overpaid for Edgar Renteria, and I would even say so despite thinking Renteria is one of the most exciting players to watch in baseball. What made matters worse, for some Sox fans, was to see his salary after hearing John Henry boast about the talents of Hanley Ramirez. Suddenly, Hanley's lifetime home is blocked until 2009, and you can bet Ramirez doesn't want a Jason Lane-like wait. Instead, he'll likely move to second base, replacing Mark Bellhorn whenever he is ready.

    Loyal reader Fabian will be the first to tell you that Robinson Cano is much more adept for the Yankees 2B job than Tony Womack. Orlando Cabrera? Oh yes, that's California League MVP Erick Aybar that you're stepping over. While I think that Aybar was destined for a move to second anyway, this signing will force that move come 2006. But for a team like the Angels, so flush in middle-of-the-infield prospects, what can you do?

    Being such a fan of both the minor leagues and the hot stove league, I sure wish general managers would swap prospects every once in awhile.

    I mean, think of everyone who could be on the block. You have Eric Duncan in New York, who has made huge strides at third base, but has no real future there because of Alex Rodriguez. Ryan Howard is a popular name to put out there, since he could succeed at 1B and DH, but could never take Jim Thome for a job. Either Jeremy Reed or Shin-Soo Choo could go, as both pretty much would fill the same role in Seattle. We already mentioned Jackson, Ramirez, Milledge, Cano and Aybar. Casey Kotchman? Even Andy Marte? I could see it all.

    So as I prep my top 75 list to begin it's descension next Monday, here's my mission for you: come up with the best swap of two prospects you can think of.

    WTNYJanuary 11, 2005
    Better Than We Thought?
    By Bryan Smith

    A few weeks ago, I checked in on the A's slew of moves and how if affects their future going forward. Today, I would like to do the same with the D-Backs, who have been stockpiling players of the age bracket opposite of Billy Beane. Sure it was their subtraction of an aging veteran that has created the most buzz, but all that proved was Joe Garagiola's belief in 'quanity over quality'.

    Most recently, Arizona finalized the off-and-on deal between them and the Los Angeles Dodgers for Shawn Green. The deal's expansion to four players hardly hurt the D-Backs' farm, as Dioner Navarro wasn't there long enough to be noticed, and none of the Juarez-Muegge-Perez trio was even noticed in the first place. So, in effect, they lost Randy Johnson for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Shawn Green and $19 million (ten from L.A., nine from N.Y.). In my mind, this both is a win in 2004 value (26 win shares to 25) and future value, as Randy realistically only had a year left in the desert anyway. Under that light, Arizona looks to be a winner.

    On the free agent market, not so much. Other signings have made the Troy Glaus and Russ Ortiz signings look disastrous, but we must still realize the monumental improvement they offer from last year. Worse are the signings of Royce Clayton and Craig Counsell, who will make a combined $2.65 million in 2005, with Counsell making another $1.75M in 2006. There were better deals to be had here, and this really stunts the growth of Alex Cintron and Scott Hairston, with the latter appearing to be nearing the 'bust' column.

    The Glaus signing, and eventually the Green acquisition, has created a logjam of sorts at first base. Shea Hillenbrand has been loyally serving the Diamondbacks since they sickened of Byung-Hyun Kim, further fooling fans with his deceiving statistics. And on the other hand, there is Chad Tracy, who defied expectations in his first season of work at the hot corner. His defense was thought of terribly by fans though, so a move to first may create a vision of what Lyle Overbay would have brought to the table.

    With Hillenbrand likely being dealt, and we'll look for possibilities in a second, the only open holes seem to be behind the plate and in center. The former should be some combination of Koyie Hill, Robby Hammock and Chris Snyder, with Hill the most logical option to get 2005 at-bats. No matter what, spending more than 750k on two catchers will be an overpayment, I'm afraid. As for centerfield, that will remain undecided. So far, we have seen the Diamondbacks express interest in both Eric Byrnes and Mike Cameron, though I view the Met as quite unlikely.

    Instead, Billy Beane should lend another helping hand to the Diamondback organization, coming up with another one of his multi-team trades. His good friend J.P., for one reason or another, was once interested in Hillenbrand, giving us our three teams. The rumored offer for Byrnes is currently Jose Valverde, and for Hillenbrand, Adam Peterson. If Beane prefers the latter, this trade could be done quickly and easily. No matter what, I have a hard time believing Riccardi and Billy can't figure something out.

    This makes the Arizona 2005 lineup something like this:

    1. Eric Byrnes- CF
    2. Craig Counsell- 2B
    3. Luis Gonzalez- LF
    4. Troy Glaus- 3B
    5. Shawn Green- RF
    6. Chad Tracy- 1B
    7. Koyie Hill- C
    8. Royce Clayton- SS

    Not terrible, but still a far cry from what we had envisioned last October. What will remain extremely important, for Garagiola's sanity, is a lot of health. It's not a terrible prediction to see Green, Gonzalez and Glaus needing to move to first in the coming years, which could be disastrous for a team that has all three until 2007 (Glaus until '08).

    Furthermore, this currently blocks the Diamondbacks' two best prospects, Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin. You'll see how the two stack up against each other next week, but no matter how you rank them, both are marquee prospects for this organization. The problem, is they were once thought to be the future corner outfielders in the Arizona desert. My guess is that Gonzalez or Green will be the player most likely to move to first, opening up the RF spot for Quentin, or if he falls, Josh Kroeger or Jon Zeringue. This really hurts the D-Back future for Jackson and Chad Tracy.

    What that projected lineup will not block, however, is the future for Sergio Santos and Stephen Drew. My guess is that not only does Drew get signed, but then moved to center, where he'll ultimately be Byrnes' successor in center. Santos will take over for Royce Clayton in 2006, though it's entirely plausible that he will one day shift somewhere for Justin Upton. That's a situation left for re-evaluation come June.

    Interestingly enough, the Diamondbacks are plentiful in both veteran hitters and prospect sluggers, but the well runs a bit drier on the pitching end. This off season has seen the overhaul of the Johnson-Webb-Fossum trio atop the rotation, and seen it changed to Vazquez-Ortiz-Webb. If you view this change via Win Shares, it represents a loss of one win, going from 36 to 33. What could actually, gasp, help is the upcoming signing of Shawn Estes. The southpaw accounted for nine Win Shares last year, presumably more than Arizona got out of their mixed-bad fourth spot.

    While Estes does continue to bring a veteran feel to this team, it ignores the fact that Brad Halsey and Mike Gosling are better choices for the spot. Though my guess is that Halsey will be the fifth starter for now, with Fossum replacing the newest Cub (Stephen Randolph) in the bullpen. So, the rotation as we know it, though I wouldn't ever put Estes and Halsey back-to-back:

    1. Javier Vazquez- RHP
    2. Russ Ortiz- RHP
    3. Brandon Webb- RHP
    4. Shawn Estes- LHP
    5. Brad Halsey- LHP

    Since Arizona doesn't have a lot of pitching prospects, this really isn't blocking much. I do like Dustin Nippert, who should be ready to replace Shawn Estes in the 2006 season. Vazquez, Ortiz and Webb will all likely be here until 2007 or 2008, though this doesn't look to effect any real prospect (sorry Chico) too negatively.

    Finally, let's move onto the bullpen. You shouldn't see a lot of changes here, though recent reports have the team close to signing Steve Reed. Again, another veteran signing, though I've always liked the way Reed competes against every batter. With Fossum moving to the bullpen, and expected improvements from everybody in the bullpen, I really like the way this turns out:

    CL- Jose Valverde
    SU- Greg Aquino
    MR- Oscar Villareal
    MR- Mike Koplove
    MR- Steve Reed
    LOOGY- Randy Choate
    LH/Long- Casey Fossum

    So, this leaves five open spots for the bench. I think we have to assume Robby Hammock, Alex Cintron and Matt Kata all get spots, which shouldn't be too damning on the offense. Finally, I would give the final two spots to Luis Terrero and Josh Kroeger, a RH hitter and a leftie, speed and power, centerfield and the corners.

    What will this team do? If we look at 2003 Win Shares, since many were injured in 2004, and just view the ten veterans acquired (assuming Byrnes and Reed but not Estes) this winter, you get 142. Remember, a .500 team should get 243 Win Shares, meaning that the team would need 101 WS from Koyie Hill, Chad Tracy, Shawn Estes, Brad Halsey, their bullpen and their bench. I'm pretty sure such a thing could be done, and if many out-do their 2003 number, even 85-90 wins. Given the uncertainty from the rest of the division, it remains possible the Diamondbacks could come back and win this division.

    And for kicks, a quick look at what the Tuscon offense could look like next year:

    C- Chris Snyder
    1B- Jesus Cota
    2B- Scott Hairston
    SS- Sergio Santos
    3B- Jamie D'Antona
    LF- Conor Jackson
    CF- Victor Hall
    RF- Carlos Quentin

    Does Vegas offer 2005 PCL odds yet?

    WTNYJanuary 07, 2005
    Wanting More
    By Bryan Smith

    I didn't present formal awards at WTNY this year, a practice I may get into next year. I can tell you that this year, Baseball America got the Player of the Year right in Jeff Francis. Jason Kubel would get my award for breakout of the year, and Huston Street for "Rookie" of the Year. But rather than spend time analyzing more and more successes, I want to talk about two of the unfortunate award winners: the Disappointments of the Year.

    This award has two separate categories, one for hitters and another for pitchers. One's chance to win this award correlates perfectly with the amount of hype they receive, so a B.J. Upton flameout would have drawn a lot more consideration than Alberto Callaspo would have received. I did not penalize players that were injured, eliminating the likes of J.J. Hardy and Greg Miller. So when looking at my 2004 rankings, I have come away with my two winners of this award: Jeff Mathis of the Anaheim Angels and Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals.

    Before the season, Mathis and Wainwright ranked on my list twelfth and 28th respectively. The former came after a season in which Mathis had an .884 OPS in 98 California League games, followed by an OPS over .800 in the Texas League to finish out the year. This led me to say that Mathis had "much more raw power than Mauer," which after considering Joe's debut, was blatantly false. This mis-read on my part is a combination of disbelief that Mauer would develop the power that scouts promised, and a real inablity to use the effects of the ballpark in my statistic evaluations.

    This year, Mathis fell apart in his long haul in the Texas League. While Mauer was destroying the Majors prior to his injury, Mathis (as seen on Baseball America), fell apart after May. Prospect evaluators keep saying to believe in Mathis, though he has fallen fast in catcher rankings, behind Barton, McCann, Navarro, and to some, even Chris Snyder. His catching skills behind the plate will never be more than average, and I'm not sure anymore if he'll be able to overcome "gap power". By now, at least some of those doubles should be going over the fence.

    As for Wainwright, the writing for his downfall was in the clouds. Kudos to the Braves front office, a favorite in my book, for correctly reading the futures of both Wainwright and Bubba Nelson within the last year. Sure, this organization might make its mistakes (Odalis Perez, Merkin Valdez, Jason Schmidt), but more often than not, John Scheurholz is getting the better end of a deal. I csn tell you this for sure: I would be a lot more afraid to trade with him than Billy Beane, as some have hypothesized GMs are. But with Wainwright, it didn't take a genius, as his K/9 took a stark drop in the 2003 season.

    Not only that, but Wainwright was far and away the worst picher when joining Team USA after last season, showing a bit of wear on his power arm. It was that arm, or the pitches it could produce, that kept Wainwright in my top 30. My negligence for forecasting his bad season is actually pretty embarassing a year later. But his curveball, and mid-90s fastball came highly touted, though I was probably reading a lot more 2002 reports than not. My prediction of him being in the Majors by the All-Star Game...oops.

    Looking forward to next season, both of these players will be sent back to their 2004 destinations. Jeff Mathis should start the season getting put in the DH spot a little more than he did last season, to avoid the late season drop-off. With any success, I would move him to the even more hitter-friendly Salt Lake destination, which should give him a little boost of confidence. I think he still has more offensive potential than Ben Molina, though I'm not sure it's enough to justify benching the defensive specialist. Or, since he's already come up once this week, he could just be another Sal Fasano.

    WTNYJanuary 05, 2005
    Dodger Dioner Detailed
    By Bryan Smith

    One inevitable piece of ranking prospects is the "Honorable Mention" group, the players you simply couldn't find room for in your rankings. This year, with the new responsibility of ranking 75 prospects, I have allowed myself 15 in the honorable mention category. These players will come after my top 75 is revealed, but since one of them has been in the news of late, I thought it would be a good time to talk about him.

    In this year's rankings, I will balance the rankings with detailed reports on some players, and the usual, more concise reports on others. The detailed reports allow me to contribute bits and pieces I found through the game-by-game logs at Sports Network, which provides most minor league teams with the statistics available on their site. The problem with this, is that TSN is hardly perfect, oftentimes leaving the game-by-game data, and season-ending stats conflicting. But nonetheless, I'm never off by too much, and my findings are far too interesting to keep to myself.

    Today, to both prep you for my upcoming rankings, and give you some insight on how they will look, I'll present a detailed report on Dioner Navarro. His world has likely been spun upside-down in the last few days, when he went from being a Yankee, to a Diamondback, to finally a Los Angeles Dodger. I'll say that I think Navarro will have a nice season in the hitter-friendly stadium in Las Vegas, prompting many to call for his arrival in Hollywood. But, there is a definite possibility that Mike Rose will out-hit Navarro in the Majors, and Russ Martin do the same in the minors.

    But that's enough babbling on about Navarro, of whom I present my first detailed prospect report:

    Dioner Navarro- C- Los Angeles Dodgers- 21

    Pardon me while I scoff at the Yankees for a second. Excuse me for gloating Yankee fans, but I don't get to do this very often. I found the handling of Navarro, who prior to the 2004 season was universally regarded as their top prospect, laughable. It's hard to blame a player's performance on upper management decisions, and I'm not doing that here, but any choice that could slow the development of such a talented player is ludicrous. There is a reason this farm system has been in the dumps for the past few years, and blaming it on their trades is not sufficient.

    What am I talking about? First let me begin in Columbus of the International League (AAA), where Navarro was on the roster from June 28 until late August. During his two month stay with the Clippers, the eventual first-place club played 65 games. My beef with his handling stems from the fact that Navarro played only forty games in AAA, getting 136 at-bats when he could have had up to 221. Instead, Navarro's playing time sometimes dwindled to every other day, preventing a rhythm that was surely somewhat behind his great outburst in AA a year ago. But hey, the 33-year-old catcher Sal Fasano needed time to boost the .701 OPS he had last year, or maybe try to make it to the Majors somewhere, since his career .215/.300/.390 line won't be one to show the grandkids in years to come). Anything to preserve that all-important International League West Division Title I guess, one that they won by a 13-game margin I should mention.

    Navarro is an extremely streaky player, which as I said, is my main problem with the 'every other day' philosopohy. Sure, it didn't prevent him from a 14-game hitting streak that spanned from July 31-August 19 (three weeks for a two-week hitting streak). Still, the more reps the better return, which is an important aspect for any Yankee prospect. Navarro was streaky all season, pretty much alternating good weeks with bad ones. An average that stood at .319 on April 26 was down to .267 by the end of the month, then back to .298 by May 11 and down to .255 a week later. But then began a different streak, a solid one, in which he hit in 17 of 20 games (including 12 in a row), collecting 28 hits in 83 at-bats, and enough for a .458 slugging. That's the best you're gonna get from this kid let me tell ya.

    And that's my other problem with the Yanks and Dioner (not the power, we'll get to that in a minute), which is the timing of his promotion. When the aforementioned streak ended on June 7, Navarro was hitting .292. Why not promote him then? Or wait ten days, when his average would still be as high as .290. But no, the Yanks wait to the pull the trigger a bit too long, immediately promoting him after a streak in which he had all of five hits in 34 at-bats, and saw his average slip to .271. Whether that explains why he began his AAA career at 4/31 I'm not sure, but it probably didn't help. Simple negligence.

    As a player, Navarro holds two major weaknesses: work ethic and power. The former idea was conceived when Navarro reported to Spring Training a little chubbier than how he finished it, which is one explanation for why his defense slipped a bit this season. I like to believe this problem will come with maturity, since age (he turns 21 in February) is one thing on Dioner's side (that and great contact skills). As for power, I'm just not so sure here. His highest monthly AA ISO was .101, and he was no lower than .097. This is roughly indicative of what Navarro should be able to offer in the Bigs, especially considering Dodger Stadium. Even Sal Fasano could top that.

    WTNYJanuary 03, 2005
    Back from Hibernation
    By Bryan Smith

    With the Dominican Winter League playoffs beginning yesterday, I figure now is as good a time as ever to check on the prospects of the DWL. The League consistently lands more premier players than any of the other winter leagues, with well over five players that will be in my top 75 prospects (read on for more info). I would highly suggest you read Baseball Prospectus' winter league translations when they come out, as they are always a valuable tool in putting these statistics in perspective.

    To help, using the statistics available at mlb.com, I calculated that the league average is .255, and the league ERA is 3.81. Looking at each team's average, I can tell you that the league OBP would likely be just above .320, and the SLG a hair above .380. So any player with an OPS very far above .700 is having a better-than-average season. For pitchers, I can tell you that the ERA is a good indicator of the prospect's season, and that his H/9 should be well over 9.00, though few K/9s are that high. Hopefully that will provide some guidance here.

    There are six teams in the DWL, and between them I found 20 players worth commenting on. If you want more info on the league, I suggest you head over to the MLB website.

    Aguilas Del Cibao

    Not a lot here, with Edwin Encarnacion the best prospect to speak of. The Reds third base prospect should have been insulted with the Austin Kearns hot corner expirament, as Dave O'Brien is not showing a lot of confidence in the solid if not spectacular Encarnacion. To remain politically correct, O'Brien said that he thinks Encarnacion is still raw, and needs at least another year in the minors. I wouldn't disagree with this, but I hardly think it necessitates Kearns moving. Instead, sign Joe Randa.

    On the other hand, maybe O'Brien is right about Encarnacion. After a less-than-stellar season in the Southern League, Edwin is hitting just .241/.310/.362 in 141 at-bats. These numbers aren't far below league average, but he needed a solid campaign to start changing the minds within the Cincinnati front office. I wouldn't be shocked, nor frown upon, if the Reds offer Encarnacion in a trade for a young starter, someone like Kip Wells. Both teams could do far worse.

    Speaking of the Bucs, on the same club is Leo Nunez, who the club just dealt in exchange for Benito Santiago. The last time I commented on Nunez was when I found him in my pack of Bowman cards, basically calling him a poor man's Juan Cruz. Nunez had a real solid season with Hickory this year, showing his Cruz impression with a solid peripherals minus the unsatisfactory HR ratio. He's a nice arm for the Royals to get for a 40-plus catcher, and his Winter League performance (1.98 ERA in 13.2 IP) is making Mr. Baird look like he made another solid acquisition.

    Let me stop now and point out that this season, Baird acquired three relatively intriguing players in Nunez, Denny Bautista and Justin Huber, in exchange for Jason Grimsley, Benito Santiago and Jose Bautista. He's doing something right.

    Azucareros Del Este

    Through December 20, this team had a 16-28 record, likely because their best hitter (Luis Terrero) only had an .811 OPS. Hanging right with Terrero was team star, Andy Marte of the Atlanta Braves. His .801 OPS is pretty solid, well above the league averages across the board. He continued to show the patience and power that makes him a top prospect, but still leaves us waiting for the huge numbers everyone is expecting. You have to wonder if they might not come at all, and Marte will just simply be somewhere between 'average' and 'solid', but I (like everyone else) have a hard time believing it.

    The Royal-Pirates connection is not done, as catcher Ronny Paulino played in the league for all of 66 at-bats. Paulino is one of the nine million players that were drafted from the Pirates (by the Royals) in the 2003 Rule 5 draft, but later returned. After a season better than Geovany Soto's, the Pirates added Paulino to the 40-man roster after the season. It's looking like a shaky decision now, after (I know sample-size) his winter league totals will finish with a .152/.233/.197 line. He's just another fringe catching prospect in an organization flush with them, and his recent numbers likely won't help getting noticed between J.R. House or Humberto Cota.

    Last but not least, we have the WTNY debut of another Royal, Ambiorix Burgos. The hard-throwing right-hander is picking up right where he left off in the Midwest League, with a 2.21 ERA, along with 11 hits and 24 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. Control is continuing to be the problem (and I don't even have his HR/9 numbers), with 14 so far this winter. Burgos has the chance to follow in the footsteps of Denny Bautista, but even Denny's control isn't quite this erratic.

    Gigantes Del Cibao

    To paraphrase, in a recent Sporting News, Jim Bowden expressed his surprisement to see the Brewers netting Nelson Cruz for Keith Ginter, whom he was also after. Cruz was just part of a winter of solid returns for Doug Melvin, who acquired Carlos Lee, Cruz, Jose Capellan, and Justin Lehr for Podsednik, Kolb and Ginter. After a real breakout season between the California and Texas Leagues, Cruz is continuing his success in the DWL. Through 75 at-bats, he's hitting .333/.390/.493, with continued struggles in the BB/K department (7/25). He has the chance to provide a lot of power in the outfield, and will likely battle Brad Nelson for a 2006 spot.

    Leones Del Escogido

    I was down in Florida for winter break and it was alarmingly cold, and while I don't know the weather in D.R., I can say with confidence that there is enough heat to go around in Escogido. With four flame-throwing prospects on the roster, the Lions undoubtedly provided a lot of fun baseball to watch this winter.

    Top dog on the list is Jose Capellan, who has probably been talked about as much as any prospect on this site. I'm not really sure why, other than I think I have a real good handle on the kid. The decision for him to pitch in winter ball is one I strongly disagree with (kudos to the Mariners for not letting Felix pitch), and he is showing a bit of wear. His 4.30 ERA is not alarming, but that combined with a subpar H/9 ratio has to at least raise some yellow flags. Two more not pitching so well are Jairo Garcia (6.28 in 14.1) and Merkin Valdez (4.87 in 20.1), though again, neither is pitching too poor.

    The surprising best pitcher on the team has been Ezequiel Astacio, another player I don't know has ever been talked about on this site. Coming over from Philadelphia, he did not look like the best player in the Billy Wagner deal, but Taylor Buchholz certainly opened up some doors. Now a competitor with Fernando Nieve for the system's best pitching prospect, Astacio is playing extremely well in the D.R. His 1.47 ERA out of the bullpen has been fantastic, though I would be a little higher on him if he had struck out more than 12 in his 18.1 innings.

    A few notes on hitters, though they didn't quite breed prospects here like they did on the mound. Wilson Betemit is officially not a prospect anymore, as his .209/.329/.358 line should justify. I guess that answers the Betemit v. Berroa debate, huh? Brian Myrow is showing why he had such loud supporters in New York, leading the D.R. in walks, and second in OBP. He needs to find a spot on some Major League bench. Finally, Kelly Shoppach is making the Red Sox happy they re-signed Jason Varitek, and angry they didn't already trade him. The no-longer-a-real-prospect just couldn't reach that .500 OPS barrier in 67 at-bats.

    Estrellas Del Oriente

    Moving from a team flush with pitching to one with hitting. Is there a better up the middle combo in the minors than Robinson Cano and Joel Guzman? I don't think so, which really makes me wish I had seen these two playing together this winter. Both re-affirmed their prospect status, though I can't say I'm too happy with Guzman's .412 OPS. Cano was great with a .788 OPS, making me wonder (again) just why Tony Womack got a two-year deal. Which is more insane, his or Eckstein's?

    Brendan Harris was once a favorite prospect of mine, one of those blue collar guys that you would love to see on an All-Star team some day, a nicer Jeff Kent. No more. His OPS was a shade over .600, and I really think the Nationals could have done worse than sign Vinny Castilla.

    Denny Bautista is another who shouldn't be pitching in winter ball, and because he is, seems to be laboring a bit. His 6.92 ERA seems a little high when looking at his numbers, though 33 hits in 26 innings is a disastrous total. I still am fairly high on Bautista, though I wonder if he might be a bit injury prone now. Maybe relief will be his calling card after all.

    Tigres Del Licey

    Another team flush with hitting. I'm not exactly how you fit both Erick Aybar and Hanley Ramirez onto one team, but they managed, presumably moving Aybar over to second where he belongs. In fact, I also think I have the right beat on Aybar, who only had a .336 SLG in his 125 winter league at-bats. I think Aybar was greatly helped by the California League, as Josh Barfield was before him, and will struggle mightily (as Alberto Callaspo did before him) in AA. Hanley was better, his average low at .252, but ISO high at .200.

    Felix Pie was the last member of the club, and I think I'm more right every day with calling him overrated. His .238 average was hardly helped by walks, and his ISO was just .137. He also only stole 4 bases, which is his sole calling card these days. That and good defense. Not even Tom Goodwin is a good comp anymore. Sad story.

    Official WTNY announcement: My Top 75 prospects list will be released on Friday, January 14. Individual player comments will go through the following week. The list is all but done, though I'm still plugging away on the comments. Stay patient for me guys.

    WTNYDecember 27, 2004
    The Hotbed Down South
    By Bryan Smith

    Last week, I spoke about the slew of Billy Beane moves in the past weeks, and
    what it has done to shape the future in Bayside California. Today I want to talk
    about the Atlanta Braves, looking both at their system and trying to shape what’s on tap for their top prospects.

    Overall, this is not an organization that shies away from prospects, with a lot of
    their best players containing roots stemming from Atlanta. Braves brass has
    been amazing at not just keeping a winner on the Major League level, but also
    keeping a host of good minor leaguers below. Say what you will about their
    supposed “Scout the South,” high school-first philosophy, but it has worked.

    Simply put, no organization can lose the likes of Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer,
    and not be hurt from a top prospect, or prospect depth perspective. On the other hand, no GM was more prepared to trade two fantastic prospects for two
    important Major League pieces than John Schuerholz. The truck has not been
    backed up because of these deals, it just merely has been dented. That’s
    because before these deals, Capellan and Meyer fell below two prospects, and immediately in front of a few more. Atlanta’s rotation will end up being a bit older than anticipated, but there are still arms that could be of some help soon.

    On the mound, the Braves still have some very good arms. I read that
    Scheurholz was refusing to trade Kyle Davies in the past few weeks, which is
    high praise considering who actually was dealt. Davies did not dominate in Myrtle Beach like the upmost echelon should, but he appears to have the ceiling of a Kevin Millwood type, considered an ace by some, but best suited in the three spot.

    The problem with being so loaded from bottom to top is that it makes for hard
    decisions on when to cut bait or trade certain players. Davies was once fourth on the depth chart for the Braves fifth starter spot (Horacio Ramirez, Capellan,
    Meyer), but the Braves’ surely calculated risk moved him up to second. He’ll
    begin the season in AA, but if Meyer or Capellan are any indication, he could be
    next in line for starts should injuries arise.

    Farther down the line, but immediately after Davies comes Jake Stevens.
    Chosen in the third round of the 2003 draft, Stevens was sensational in his first
    full season in low-A. The southpaw had an extremely long scoreless innings
    streak that extended from May to July, showing the potential he has to dominate
    on the mound. Also dominating was Chuck James, a fellow leftie, though he was
    22 in the South Atlantic League last season. His ceiling - mostly due to age - is
    not quite as high as that of Stevens, but he does keep defying the odds.

    The Braves also have quite a bit of depth at the position, though I’m not sold on
    most of them. You’ll hear the knuckleball obsessors talk about Anthony Lerew,
    who had a solid season (surely helped by the giant park) at high-A Myrtle Beach. Macay McBride was as highly thought of as anyone entering the season, but had an extremely large slip-up before salvaging his pride in the AFL. Others include Blaine Boyer, Zach Miner, and Matt Wright. I don’t expect any of the latter three (or McBride for that matter) to ever be much of a help in a starting role, but depth is quite useful when on the phone with other GMs.

    Offensively, the Braves are not quite as deep, though their top prospects are
    sensational. Andy Marte is one of my favorite prospects, a player waiting for
    explosion, and should be reaching the Majors soon. Unfortunately, Scheurholz
    hinted in a recent article (can’t find the link), that it might be Marte and not
    Chipper Jones moving to the outfield when he’s ready. I think this would be a
    colossal mistake, as simply following the path of Miguel Cabrera is not the right
    attitude to have. My hope is that minds are changed early in the season, and the Braves start 2006 with an outfield of Jones-Jones-Francoeur.

    There really isn’t a lot standing in the way of Jeff Francoeur, other than himself.
    His final at-bats in AA, and his AFL stint, showed that he still is quite raw
    considering the amount of talent he has. The Braves need to preach patience
    with Francoeur, who at this pace, could never really eclipse a .350 OBP in the
    Majors. He is a fantastic talent, but will not be ready as quick as Marte, another
    Scheurholz quoteable. Think mid-2006 right now, though he wouldn’t be the first
    Brave prospect to surprise me.

    Atlanta’s most confusing position will soon be behind the plate, now that Johnny
    Estrada was everything the Braves thought and tons more last season. I do not
    believe Estrada can stay at such a level, giving way to the Majors second best
    catching prospect, Brian McCann. He’s a player hurt a bit by his park
    environment, but someone I truly believe can be a force in the Majors. He’ll join
    Francoeur in AA next year, and should force the Braves hand a bit in 2006. And
    don’t forget Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a player scouts love, that held his own being
    quite young for the Sally League.

    Hopefully, this article made you realize that the Braves will move on easily
    despite losing Capellan and Meyer, something the Cardinals organization can’t
    say after trading Daric Barton. The system should start to provide the Braves
    with useful, cheap parts soon, almost surely allowing the re-signing of newfound
    hero Tim Hudson. Look for Smoltz and Hudson to lead this rotation in the coming years, but with noteable help from the likes of LaRoche, Francoeur, Marte, McCann and Davies.

    WTNYDecember 23, 2004
    Next On Tap
    By Bryan Smith

    Sorry for the non-posting thus far this week, it's been a combination of writer's block, other WTNY work, other real work, and a busy time of year. Add all that up, and you just might have one week with all of two articles. But, in the spirit of the upcoming new year, and the "futuristic" principle this site was founded on, I want to throw some guesses at how the 2005 season will go for a bunch of my top prospects. This kind of stuff won't be on my top prospect list, which will be much more of a review, so I thought today would be a good day to start it.

    No order is really being presented below, more of just whatever jumble of words enter my head:

    Jeff Francoeur- Baseball America has started an argument that wasn't really thought of too much before yesterday: Francoeur or Andy Marte. There is no question the former has a bit more star potential, while Marte has a much, MUCH higher chance of reaching whatever ceiling he has. Francoeur's 2005 season, in my mind, will begin to make BA second-guess their choice. In the Southern League, I expect Francoeur to struggle a bit, as he did during his cup of coffee at year's end. Remember, the SL made a lot of real good prospects (Weeks, Loney, Fielder, Barfield) have poor seasons last year, and it is the worst hitter's league in the minors. I expect Francoeur to post a line not far from Fielder's, without the 65 walks. I'll say, .275/.320/.460.

    Andy Marte- So then, what will his competitor do? Well, this largely depends on whether or not the Braves decide to send Marte back to AA, or challenge him with an International League promotion. Also, a position change to left field (as hinted to by John Schuerholz), could also prove an impact on his offensive numbers. But I keep feeling like one of these seasons Marte is going to put together all his offensive potential, and simply explode. This probably won't happen, but let's hope the Braves find out in the International League. How about this prediction: Chipper Jones gets injured in June, when the Braves call up Marte who is hitting .280/.360/.480. He finishes the season in the Majors playing third, with Chipper destined to move back to left in 2006.

    Felix Hernandez- Talk about on the verge of putting it all together. Hernandez has been said to not even yet release his amazing slider, which will prove yet another piece in the "Next Great Player" puzzle. He just keeps on succeeding, but did not really dominate the Texas League in the second half of the season. Still, it sounds as if the Mariners will send him to the Pacific Coast League, where he won't last too long. Let's say they give him a Greinke-ish call with his PCL ERA somewhere between 2.75 and 3.50. In the Majors, he is jaw-dropping, even challenging Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher and the Oakland trio of pitchers for the AL Rookie of the Year.

    Adam Miller- It shouldn't be shocking that the next person I think of after Felix Hernandez is Adam Miller. After a great playoffs in the Carolina League, if I were the Indians I would challenge Miller with a promotion to the Eastern League. But the organization is quite conservative, and I expect at least a few starts in the Carolina League. It won't take long to reach AA, where his ERA will be in the mid-to-high 3.00s. Look for a real slow start, with a finish that makes some wonder if he'll open 2006 in Jacobs Field.

    Greg Miller- From one Miller to another, next season will be the second unveiling of Greg Miller to the minor leagues. With an arm that is apparently healthy, look for the Dodgers to send their prized lefty back to the Southern League. I think he'll finish with a decent ERA, after a start to the season that will make Logan White question his presence in AA. Look for him to come back at the end of the season, and possibly even contribute to either AAA or the big league team.

    Chad Billingsley- He'll be Miller's mate in the Southern League rotation, which will also have prospects like Jonathan Broxton and Mike Megrew. Yikes, watch out for this club next year. I expect Billingsley to just absolutely crush this league in April and May, with a promotion to the PCL in June. He'll struggle there, posting numbers a shade better (with a much better K/9) than Joe Blanton's last season. He's much more likely to earn a September start than Miller, but an average Los Angeles team will probably be able to afford allowing both to see time.

    Daric Barton- There is now a lot of pressure on Barton, who seems to have been a sticking point in the Mark Mulder trade. Instead of having to go to Palm Beach next year, Barton will end up in Modesto (could be worse!), which is much more of a hitter's haven. His numbers could be anywhere from average to ridiculous, with my guess as somewhere in the middle. His numbers should look pretty similar to Omar Quintanilla's there last year (.314/.370/.480), with an OBP in the low-.400s as my only real significant change.

    Delmon Young- The star of the California League will not be Barton, but instead Delmon Young in his return home to Cali. Look for Young to post crazy-good numbers early on in the season, with the Devil Rays pushing him to AA with an OPS somewhere upwards of .900. He'll go back to modesty in Montgomery, with his first real test of professional pitching. My guess is he'll have an OPS of about .800 in the Southern League, leading to an internal debate on where he should begin the 2006 season. No matter what, he'll still be one of the game's top five prospects.

    Chuck Tiffany- If you haven't yet heard of Chuck Tiffany, you will in 2005. Pitchers just simply seem to dominate in Vero Beach, and Tiffany will provide no exception to that rule. Expect him to post an ERA in the low-2.00s before being moved up to AA to take Billingsley's spot in the rotation. He'll become known as a better pitching prospect than Greg Miller, though I think time will prove the latter to be a bit stronger. Tiffany will undoubtedly pass the John Danks of the world, that's for sure.

    Shin-Soo Choo- While I never thought too much of Choo last year, I'm beginning to like the guy as a prospect. Like, more than I do Jeremy Reed. I think he'll play great in the PCL next year, and should get to debut in Seattle by about July or August. I cannot say whether or not he has centerfield-quality defense, but a midseason Randy Winn trade could open up a spot for Choo in the outfield. By that time, let's say his 2005 PCL line reads about this: .320/.400/.495.

    That's all for now, but I'm hardly done with this little project. Debate in the comments the merits of my points, the Francoeur over Marte, Reed over Choo, and Tiffany v. Miller arguments.

    WTNYDecember 20, 2004
    Grade "A" Rebuild
    By Bryan Smith

    Earlier this offseason, it became apparent that the Oakland A's were going to have to break up something that had defined their organization for years: The Big Three. Many credited Hudson, Zito and Mulder when even after the exit of Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada, Oakland continued their winning ways. But money, or more specifically impending free agencies, forced Billy Beane's hand to trade one away. One. Billy traded two.

    Tim Hudson's demands for a contract extension before Spring Training, quite Giambi-esque, fueled speculation that he would be the one leaving the Bay Area. First he was going to the Braves, and then the Cardinals, and at one point, he was a Dodger. But the rumors came full circle when, on December 16, John Scheurholz landed his ace without giving up Marcus Giles. Instead, Beane landed Juan Cruz, solid outfielder Charles Thomas, and solid prospect Dan Meyer. While the acquisition did not quite match the haul that had once been rumored to, three solid pieces of the future had been planted.

    Excuse me, I have gotten ahead of myself. Beane saw the opportunity earlier in the offseason to lose the rights to overrated players Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. For this small, and still expensive package, the A's landed 31-year-old catcher (at least come 2005) Jason Kendall. A better hitter than the previous Oakland catcher, Kendall would provide only a slight dropoff from the wonderful defense Damian Miller had offered. For the economic relief that losing Redman, Rhodes and Miller would provide, Beane improved his team behind the plate and added a draft pick to boot.

    And then, on the heels of the Hudson trade, Beane made a minor move that should not go overlooked. With Marcus Giles apparently untouchable, Beane moved at another underrated, sabermetric-friendly second basemen: Keith Ginter. His 2004 slugging percentage of .479 would be a large improvement on the .363 that the likes of Marco Scutaro and Mark McLemore accumulated. The cost? Justin Lehr, a young and possibly budding middle reliever, still far behind the likes of Justin Duchscherer and Kirk Saarlos. And the largest loot was Nelson Cruz, the 24-year-old outfielder that grabbed the ten spot in Baseball America's rankings. A solid power player no doubt, but again, not first in line for any job.

    So, that takes us where we are today. In fact, that gives us one-fifth of a team. Cruz turned the corner under Leo Mazzone's watchful eye (shocking!) last year, and as long as he stays in a big outfield, should continue his powerful relieving. Thomas' 2004 season screams David Newhan flukable, but he very well could provide a solid platoon with Eric Byrnes. Meyer looks to be everything that Mark Redman was and more, offering the best four-pitch combination in the minor leagues. Kendall and Ginter are two solid pieces of Beane's lineup puzzle.

    With Hudson gone, it appeared the rotation would have the rest of the Three, along with Rich Harden, Meyer, and solid prospect Joe Blanton. The former Kentucky ace, Blanton performed brilliantly out of the bullpen during a September call-up. But his future lies not there, but rather in the rotation as an innings horse. His PCL stats are not jaw-dropping, but he finished the year well, and is not said to have lost the stuff that once made him a first-round pick. Chosen in the same round, and also a 2005 Rookie of the Year candidate is Nick Swisher. After posting huge power numbers with a broken hand last year, it's apparent the Buckeye is ready to man Jermaine Dye's old stomping grounds.

    It appeared that Beane was nearly finished, with only a few moves left on his docket. The money from Hudson's departure would certainly allow Erubiel Durazo to stay, who should make a lot of money in arbitration this season. Chad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg appeared two players a bit expensive for what they bring to the table, and I've hypothesized that both should not make the 2005 A's 25. Dan Johnson, the PCL MVP, has proven again and again that he is ready for the job. In the bullpen, both Huston Street and Jairo Garcia look like they could be forces in the back-end. With Dotel and Cruz, it looked to make Bradford quite expendable.

    So, if you're like me, you thought Hudson's trip back home would be one of Beane's last major offseason moves. And, like me, you would have been wrong. The package that had rumored to be St. Louis' offer for Tim Hudson proved to be a bit too intriguing for Beane, who sent southpaw Mark Mulder instead. Acquired in exchange was Dan Haren, the PCL strikeout leader, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton. Haren will take Mulder's spot in the rotation, while Calero will only add to an already solid 'pen. Barton adds yet another top forty prospect to the organization, one that was somewhere on the Internet, named the best prospect in baseball.

    This leaves a lot of interesting options in Beane's future. Peter Gammons, in his most recent column, notes J.D. Drew and Carlos Beltran as now possible acquisitions. I would say the former makes the most sense, creating a nice 25-man roster:

    Catchers (2): Jason Kendall and Adam Melhuse

    Infielders (6): Dan Johnson, Erubiel Durazo, Keith Ginter, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez

    Outfielders (5): J.D. Drew, Mark Kotsay, Nick Swisher, Charles Thomas

    Starting Pitchers (5): Barry Zito, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Dan Meyer, Dan Haren

    Relief Pitchers (7): Octavio Dotel, Juan Cruz, Huston Street, Kiko Calero, Ricardo Rincon, Justin Duchscherer, Kirk Saarlos

    This proposed 25-man offers some unique possibilities, with Hatteberg, Scutaro, Eric Byrnes and Bradford all off the roster. I elected to send Jairo Garcia back to AAA, though it's really Blanton, Meyer, Haren, Street and Garcia fighting for four spots. Saarlos will take the spot of the loser. What Beane elects to do with the foursome I mentioned above, is up to him. I would advise further build toward the system, as a solid 2004 draft (plus Barton and Javi Herrera) speak of an even better future.

    I had hopes that this offseason would allow the Arizona Diamondbacks to completely rebuild, but they got all noble and spent worthless dollars on Troy Glaus and Russ Ortiz. Instead, it has been the Oakland A?s that have begun to rebuild. And in a way in which none of us would have imagined.

    WTNYDecember 16, 2004
    Down South
    By Bryan Smith

    Since there is not a lot going on in the baseball world right now, I think now would be a good time to check out what?s happening in the winter leagues. I?m going to need another day to get a Dominican Winter League report out, but for now, I think the Puerto Rican and Venezuelan Leagues will do:

    - The best stories in the Puerto Rican League are those involving pitchers on the way back. My favorite, and the most publicized, is Rick Ankiel?s Puerto Rican quests. The St. Louis southpaw has a 3.57 ERA in 22.2 innings overseas, including a fantastic twenty-nine strikeouts. While his 30 hits allowed is a bit of a concern, Ankiel has allowed only three walks and one home run. A career in relief might not satisfy the people that once forecasted him into an ace, but with the images of wild pitches still dancing in our heads, any career would be a blessing.

    - Also on the trail back is Jesse Foppert, the old San Francisco Giants? top prospect. After a dynamite debut out of the University of San Francisco, Foppert became one of the game?s best pitching prospects with a fantastic 2002 season. But arm injuries, like they so often do, struck, and Foppert did not get to fulfill his destiny in the 2004 season. On the trail back, Foppert has a 5.12 ERA in the P.R. League in 19.1 innings. But he has struck out 19 batters while only allowing one walk, a positive sign only about 9 months removed from surgery.

    - With Mike Matheny signing his absurd contract in San Francisco, the doors are open for Yadier Molina to get the job behind the plate in St. Louis. As a Cubs fan, I pray this happens. No Walt, don?t go get A.J. Pierzynski. Stick with Yadier. Please. The youngest of the trio is hitting all of .246/.259/.282 in just under 60 at-bats in Puerto Rico. While I know, this is a sample size, it?s still intriguing. If he does this against P.R. pitching, what is he gonna do in the Majors? I couldn?t tell you, but I can?t wait to find out.

    - Another Major Leaguer playing in the winter leagues is Francisco Rodriguez, who was allowed by the Angels to pitch in the Venezuelan League. The goggle-donned right-hander is flexing his muscle, yet to allow an earned run in 12 innings of work. In that time, K-Rod has allowed only three hits, while striking out 28. Yes, you read that right: twenty-eight batters in twelve innings. And it took this long for him to start getting the ninth inning in Anaheim?

    - Probably the top prospect currently pitching in either of these two leagues, since King Felix was prohibited, is Yusmeiro Petit of the Mets. In typical Metropolitan style, the organization made a mistake letting the Venezuelan pitch near his hometown. After a season in which he threw a lot of innings, Petit will cross the 50 inning mark in his next start. But the good thing for Mets fans is that he?s succeeding, with an ERA of just 2.18 so far. His good peripheral numbers speak very highly, and I think Petit could be making September starts next year for sure. That?s if his arm doesn?t fall off.

    - Interesting pair of Twins duking it out down south as well. We last talked about Alex Romero as a possible Rule 5 candidate, and prior as a breakout prospect. His numbers stack up favorably with Jason Kubel?s at the same level, though I?ll be the first to tell you he?s not half the player. Still, Romero could be a playmaker that a lot of teams will regret passing up, and his .325/.427/.487 line proves it. I?m not sure the power will ever truly be an asset, but the contact and discipline will be. And while Terry Tiffee might never gain the Gleeman blessing, he?s making an interesting case for the third base job in Venezuela, hitting .293/.356/.488, though it?s just 41 at-bats. I do agree with Aaron that someone else, albeit Joe Randa or Michael Cuddyer, is better suited for the position.

    - I never mentioned in my Rule 5 review, but one reason that Shane Victorino might have gotten drafted is his current VWL performance. The speedster is hitting .272/.320/.529, showing uncanny power. But like I warned in my article on Felix Pie recently, don?t get caught up too much in the power, it comes a bit masked. He does have seven triples in just short of 200 at-bats, a number almost impossible to sustain at the Major League level.

    That?s all for now guys, be back tomorrow with thoughts on recent transactions and some Dominican Winter League reports.

    WTNYDecember 14, 2004
    Rule 5 Review
    By Bryan Smith

    With the Winter Meetings a bit less fruitful than normal, it appeared the Rule 5 draft hype was high on Monday. Of course Baseball America had their preview piece and later their draft blog, and I?d also seen pieces all over the net. Still a very confusing procedure in which we need insiders to get comprehensive eligibility lists, it?s great to see the noble task of unearthing the research has begun.

    But despite the build-up, the Rule 5 draft came and went with all of twelve players being selected in the Major League portion. Twelve. Jim Bowden and Dan O?Dowd, currently set on some kind of a crash courses, were responsible for one-fourth of the selections. And even after reading lists trying to be comprehensive, or others making available the ?top choices? (including mine), I had still never heard of the first and fourth selections, and was not aware of the availability of others.

    Despite not expecting the names that were called, the positions were far from shocking. Five of the twelve players selected were southpaws, with three more being pitchers throwing from the right side. The draft didn?t garner any selections of the Jose Morban, Hector Luna variety, more explainable by lack of availability than anything else. Only one player that could even be thought of as an infielder was selected, with versatility in the outfield being the sexy offensive trait this year.

    Before my breakdown of the players, let me give the customary reminder that few of these players will actually stick in the Majors. Johan Santana has at least given the draft a name, but for him there are about 50 Jason Szuminskis or Matt Whites. But just like prospect hunting, the fun is not in predicting failure, but of finding the needle in the haystack, the gem that will bring with your prediction an ounce of credibility.

    Like always, with my comments will be my acknowledgment of the player?s statistics, with only a brief tangent on their ?stuff?. I like to think you guys come here to avoid regurgitation, and have some view outside of the ?beast?, so that?s what I?ll try and provide. But enough all ready, here are the 12 players selected in the 2004 Rule 5 Major League Draft (statistics from the last 3 seasons provided, for hitters, line is: AVE/OBP/SLG W-BB SB/ATT in AB, for pitchers: ERA H/IP K/BB HR in G):

    1. Angel Garcia- Chosen By Diamondbacks from Twins; Traded to Devil Rays- RHP

    2002 GCL= 3.40 41/53.0 63/31 0 in 13
    2003 APP= 2.89 37/37.1 44/18 5 in 9
    2004 GCL= 0.00 6/8.0 9/3 0 in 6
    2004 MID= 6.30 10/10.0 8/5 2 in 5

    News broke yesterday that the Diamondbacks would not select Andy Sisco, allowing the Kansas City Royals to do so with the second pick in the draft. But the mystery was who the D-Backs would select, especially given their newfound desire to scrap the rebuilding option and go straight to attempting to contend again. So there is little surprise that the cash-starved organization jumped at the opportunity to make even a few bucks choosing for someone else. Tampa, constantly rebuilding, was a solid match.

    I don?t know much about Garcia, other than he has all of then innings of full-season ball under his belt. Despite avoiding giving up the long ball in the Gulf Coast League, his seven home runs in just 47.1 innings above that level are a bit concerning. The huge 6-6 Puerto Rican can apparently throw some gas, and is currently pitching in the Puerto Rican League, which I would guess is where his name comes from. Garcia?s numbers are rather unimpressive in seven games, but I?m sure this is more scouting than number-crunching anyway.

    First overall Rule 5 picks stick most of the time, and on an organization like the Devil Rays, have no real reason not too. But Lou Piniella runs a tight ship, so Garcia is definitely a long way from making the squad. Bartolome Fortunato was probably not a huge fan of this acquisition, but Tampa now has their largest project since Jorge Sosa.

    Chance of sticking: 60%, with Piniella the only thing standing in his way.

    2. Andy Sisco- Chosen by Royals from Cubs- LHP

    2002 NWL= 2.43 51/77.2 101/39 3 in 14
    2003 MID= 3.54 76/94.0 99/31 3 in 19
    2004 FSL= 4.21 118/126 134/65 11 in 26

    Everyone knew this was coming, both from the pre-draft hype and the Sunday reports. This is a nice move by the Royals, who avoided the Rule 5 bullet when Colt Griffin did not hear his name called. I?m tellin? ya Doug Melvin, Mike Maddux could have done some things. But anyway, it will be the Royals trying to put together the pieces with a fallen prospect, as Andy Sisco is hardly the gem he was after either the 2002 or 2003 seasons.

    By the same token, Sisco is what this Rule 5 draft is all about, a project. I have heard from insiders and outsiders alike that Sisco had the combination of added weight and fallen velocity last season, both things that will need improvement for him to succeed with a full season in the Major Leagues. While his H/9 has risen each of the last three seasons, he still was under 9.00, while his K/9 was still above it. Like Wil Ledezma before he was drafted by the Tigers, the issue is getting his control under wraps.

    No one exactly knows how to handle a 6-9 pitcher, but the Royals could have worse things than him mopping up some games for the first two months of the season. Offering something to the Cubs for exclusive rights of Sisco, which would allow Baird to send him to the minors, is really advised here. I am going to avoid criticizing the Cubs here, hoping they really do know something we don?t.

    Chance of sticking: 80%, talents like this don?t usually wind up on doorsteps.

    3. Tyrell Godwin- Chosen by Nationals from Blue Jays- OF

    2002 SAL= .281/.364/.378 20-23 10/12 in 185
    2003 FSL= .273/.348/.332 29-39 20/27 in 322
    2003 EAS= .309/.328/.431 3-27 6/7 in 123
    2003 EAS= .253/.326/.355 52-110 42/54 in 521

    This is where my confusion of the draft begins, as I just don?t understand the logic behind this choice. There was a time, no doubt, when Godwin was a highly thought of player coming out of the University of North Carolina. He has strengths still, with versatility in the outfield, speed and the ability to draw some walks being the notables. But still, explain to me why this was a better choice than Anthony Webster or Alex Romero?

    My guess at Bowden?s thinking is that both Webster and Romero spent the entire 2004 seasons in high-A, as Godwin is about a season and a half removed from that league. But still, I think Webster was the choice here, because he is better at making contact, draws more walks, and offers a similar amount of speed. Time will tell here, but my guess is that Webster will later prove to have been the better choice here.

    After examining the Nationals depth chart, it appears the club will have 12 spots guaranteed. The last one or two spots will be some kind of combination between Godwin, fellow Rule 5 pick Tony Blanco, recent acquisition J.J. Davis, AAA stud Ryan Church or Brandon Watson. Though I do find it a bit redundant to carry both Endy Chavez and Godwin, it appears like he will land one spot, with Blanco, Davis and Church fighting for the last one.

    Chance of sticking: 33%

    4. Marco Carvajal- Chosen by the Brewers from the Dodgers; traded to Rockies- RHP

    2002 GCL= 1.71 30/42.0 35/15 0 in 13
    2003 PIO= 3.08 32/38.0 50/22 1 in 23
    2004 SAL= 1.88 50/72.0 72/35 2 in 36

    This is really someone that should have been investigated, as Carvajal was one of the South Atlantic League?s best relievers last season. Still, Columbus is a long way from Coors, and Carvajal?s chance of Major League success isn?t fantastic. Three home runs in 152 professional innings is intriguing, as are both very solid peripheral numbers. Carvajal joined the Caracas Leones in the Venezuelan League, but has only appeared in one game since reporting.

    The decision to move Shawn Chacon to the bullpen has opened a little room there, so Carvajal will have every chance of making the team. After striking gold for two straight seasons with Javier Lopez and then Luis Gonzalez, it was no surprise to see the Rockies become major players in this draft. Carvajal is another flamethrower, but who knows, in this bullpen he could be closing by August. Normal rules are thrown out the window atop the mountains.

    Chance of sticking: 50%, Ryan Speier?s development could prevent Carvajal?s long-term stay

    5. Matt Merricks- Chosen by the Rockies from the Dodgers- LHP

    2002 SAL= 5.12 82/82.2 60/51 6 in 19
    2003 SAL= 2.82 58/67.0 60/19 1 in 14
    2003 CAR= 3.23 45/47.1 37/23 5 in 11
    2004 CAR= 3.31 61/73.1 67/24 4 in 13
    2004 FSL= 3.12 30/26.0 16/10 2 in 6
    2004 SOU= 4.91 26/22.0 27/11 4 in 6

    Many thought the Braves overpaid a bit for Tom Martin last season went they sent the promising Matt Merricks to Los Angeles. He has a lot of success in the minor leagues, with his 2002 season the only blemish on his statistical resume. We could quibble with too many home runs this year, an argument I think will be made when Clint Hurdle builds a 25-man roster this spring.

    If he pitches well, Matt Merricks has a chance to make this team. I don?t think the thought of him not being a Major League-caliber starter is unfounded, so the move to the bullpen now could be a very good decision. But with all the good things to look at, Merricks inability to sustain solid when moving up levels will be the reason for his demise with the Rockies. Los Angeles should expect him back at the end of Spring Training, when he will probably pitch quite well in his second time around the Southern League.

    Chance of sticking: 10%

    6. Luke Hagerty- Chosen by the Orioles from the Cubs; Traded to Marlins- LHP

    2002 NWL= 1.12 32/48.0 50/15 2 in 10
    2004 AZL= 2.63 13/13.2 7/5 0 in 4
    2004 NWL= 12.00 15/9 5/9 0 in 4

    Cubs fans are also scratching their heads on Luke Hagerty?s absence from the 40-man roster, though I think his exclusion was a bit more calculated than that of Andy Sisco. I did not mistype anything on his rather underwhelming statistical history, it was just arm surgery that limited Hagerty to all of 22.2 innings since his dominating 2002 performance. It looked then as if he could have been the best Ball State player chosen that June, even better than the first overall selection Bryan Bullington.

    Now, if all goes to plan, he will still beat Bullington to the Major Leagues. Like Sisco, Hagerty is a big southpaw, listed at 6-7, 230 pounds. His rehab is going well, though I?m not sure if he?ll be able to regain his mid-90s fastball and devastating slider of old. Many have speculated as to whether Hagerty could be thrown onto the 60-man roster for most of the year, with the occasional rehab stint to the minors. Hagerty is a bit farther along in the rehab process than Derek Thompson or D.J. Mattox (Rule 5 selections to not have to actually play), so I?m not sure whether the validity of Hagerty?s injury would allow a long-term DL stay.

    I do not think, and call me the optimist, that Hagerty will stick on a team that is trying to contend like the Marlins. If so, then Jim Hendry will have a lot of explaining to do.

    Chance of sticking: 20%

    7. Shane Victorino- Chosen by Phillies from Dodgers- OF

    2002 SOU= .258/.328/.318 47-49 45/61 in 481
    2003 SOU= .282/.340/.368 21-41 16/23 in 266
    2004 SOU= .328/.375/.584 20-64 9/16 in 293
    2004 PCL= .235/.278/.335 11-37 7/9 in 200

    This is the second time that Victorino has been chosen, with a bad stint in San Diego left out of his 2003 stats. Again, another slap-hitting outfielder with lots of speed, but I still don?t understand what he brings to the table that Anthony Webster does not. The performance in the Southern League is enticing, but it was his third trial in the league, so it was either then or never. His last 200 at-bats were more indicative of the type of player he is, and if the Phillies can possibly waste a roster spot on him for the whole season, then sabermetrics is not moving fast enough.

    Chance of sticking: 5%

    8. Tyler Johnson- Chosen by A?s from Cardinals- LHP

    2002 MID= 2.00 96/121.1 132/42 7 in 22
    2003 FSL= 3.08 79/79.0 81/38 2 in 22
    2003 SOU= 1.65 16/27.1 39/15 1 in 20
    2004 SOU= 4.79 48/56.1 77/37 4 in 53

    While I normally would shy away from players that regress like Johnson did in 2004, lifetime 10.7 K/9s don?t come around everyday. I don?t find it shocking that one of the players I deemed as the greatest success was chosen by the A?s, who are definitely on top of this sort of a cheap bargain. But they passed last year on Frank Brooks, and it is entirely likely they could do it again. If, as I expect, Chad Bradford is non-tendered in a few days, Johnson has a chance of making this team. That will depend on whether Ken Macha will carry seven pitchers, and choose Johnson over Tim Harikkala and Justin Lehr. It?s possible, though not entirely likely.

    Chance of sticking: 35%

    9. Ryan Rowland-Smith- Chosen by Twins from Mariners- LHP

    2002 NWL= 2.77 58/61.2 58/22 2 in 18
    2002 MID= 6.75 50/41.1 38/19 7 in 12
    2003 MID= 1.11 22/32.1 37/14 0 in 13
    2003 CAL= 3.20 12/19.2 15/8 0 in 15
    2004 CAL= 3.79 107/99.2 119/30 10 in 29

    I cannot say I completely understand this choice, though Rowland-Smith will hold a place in my heart (with Bryn Smith) for having a name vaguely familiar to mine. In seriousness, while there were many LOOGYs available, Rowland-Smith was one of the very few Ron Villone-types that were on the market. The problem here is that Rowland-Smith is not that good, and apparently his Australian ties helped get him chosen. I don?t want to say there is no chance the Twins will carry him, but really only a long-term injury to Grant Balfour would stop them in my opinion.

    Chance of sticking: 7%

    10. D.J. Houlton- Chosen by Dodgers from Astros- RHP

    2002 MID= 3.14 120/140.2 138/30 12 in 35
    2003 TEX= 3.47 93/109.0 101/28 11 in 18
    2003 PCL= 5.40 70/61.2 48/19 12 in 11
    2004 TEX= 2.94 141/159.0 159/47 14 in 28

    It normally seems as if the Rule 5 draft pitcher is either left-handed, or a right-handed pitcher that can light up radar guns. Houlton is neither, the exception to the rule, the DePodesta choice. A bit old, Houlton was tugged a bit too hard in 2003, and came back to his normal self this season. Whether he has the stuff, or is in the right organization, to make is unknown. But I like gambling on him a lot more than giving Brian Falkenborg a bunch of appearances, which is what the Dodgers were left to do last season. I asked Jon Weisman about who might fill the Dodgers bullpen next year?


    Gagne and Brazoban are locks for the bullpen, with Sanchez, a waiver pickup just before Dan Evans was fired, almost as certain after a solid Dodger debut. Carrara, who pitched exceptionally after being picked up on waivers from Seattle, would appear to be a lock - except he was an apparent lock in 2003 but didn't make the team. One slot will probably go to a lefty - Scott Stewart if they can do no better, but it's hard to believe they can't. Another slot would go to a swingman - and who this is depends on how the rotation fills out. In a happy world, the recently signed Elmer Dessens will be a long reliever and not a starter. Wilson Alvarez is also a possibility here. And even Edwin Jackson could get more interning out of the pen, if the Dodgers can fill their rotation without him. So the answer is, at least on December 14, Houlton has a shot at making the team. The pen isn't full yet, and the Dodgers have been willing to take a chance on relievers with unusual pedigrees. But again, it depends on the rotation. They need to plan to have at least 12 pitchers - six starters - because of the uncertainty over Penny's health, at least through the end of March if not into the beginning of the season. We won't need to wait until March to have a better idea of Houlton's chances, but we may need to wait until January.

    Well said. Chance of sticking: 20%

    11. Adam Stern- Chosen by Red Sox from Braves- OF

    2002 CAR= .253/.298/.364 27-89 40/48 in 462
    2003 CAR= .194/.282/.214 13-21 7/10 in 103
    2004 SOU= .322/.378/.480 35-58 27/37 in 394

    This one will not stick, nearly guaranteed. Stern appears to be a solid player, probably the equivalent to Nick Gorneault, and his only hope is the Red Sox don?t bother to find a replacement to Gabe Kapler. This will almost certainly not happen, but at least Theo showed that he can find a solid player that no one else saw. His previous career stats make me think of 2004 as a bit of a fluke though, but again, worth the cost to find out if there?s more than meets the eye.

    Chance of sticking: 5%

    12. Tony Blanco- Chosen by Nationals from Reds- Corner

    2002 FSL= .221/.250/.365 6-70 2/2 in 244
    2003 CAR= .266/.338/.477 26-62 0/0 in 241
    2004 CAR= .306/.403/.588 27-66 2/2 in 216
    2004 SOU= .245/.300/.455 15-53 0/0 in 220

    Jim Bowden actually didn?t do so bad here, and he knows Tony Blanco from their days together in Cincinnati. Basically, Blanco is this season?s Jose Bautista, a real raw player with a few good attributes to offer. I think he?s actually better, though a bit less athletic than Bautsita or Tony Batista, the latter who he compares to offensively. Blanco will be able to play all the corners for Washington, though I think the simultaneous signing of Wil Cordero hurts his chances of making the team. Bring him to camp, let him wow a few spectators with big bombs, offer the Reds some mediocre minor leaguer for him, and send him back to Cincy.

    Chance of sticking: 25%

    In review, the five guys with the best chance to stick, in order: Sisco, Garcia, Carvajal, Johnson and Godwin. Of course, that hardly reflects how good the choices were. We'll have to wait and see on that front. That?s all today guys, drop the Rule 5 questions and comments below, as always.

    WTNYDecember 13, 2004
    Winter Weekend Moves
    By Bryan Smith

    My take on the weekend?s happenings, as I await to write about the Rule 5 draft of today. Check back for tomorrow on that, as for now, let?s review the moves behind the madness:

    In my piece on Friday, I wrote the following about the Atlanta Braves and the rumored Tim Hudson deal:


    I would then let Smoltz move back to the rotation, and have a staff look like this: Hudson, Smoltz, Hampton, Thomson, Ramirez. Then, move Capellan to the bullpen, where he and Juan Cruz can duke it out for the closer spot.

    While the Hudson deal now appears far off, Atlanta brass has taken a bit of my advice. Trading for Dan Kolb will in fact let John Smoltz move to the bullpen, and provide a more ?Proven Closer? than Capellan or Cruz could have provided.

    I?ve spoken on the merits of Jose Capellan?s resume many times before, obviously coming across the question that follows Capellan like a younger brother: can he succeed in the Majors as a starter? Judging by numbers alone, there would be no reason to doubt future success coming from the Dominican right-hander. In a year that ended with his name on Player of the Year ballots, Jose flew through the Carolina, Southern and International Leagues on his way to Atlanta. He only allowed one home run across all three stops, posting a 2.32 ERA and striking out 152 men. September issues in Atlanta are the only gaffe on his stat sheet, a sheet that will make him a top thirty prospect.

    With that being said, Capellan is a fine example of the problems that come with just judging a player by his numbers. While I have only seen Capellan pitch on three occasions (two of which being in the Majors), I feel my hold on his scouting report is dead-on. Jose throws what?s called as a ?heavy? mid-90s fastball, which explains the sensational home run rate. To be able to have reacquired that heat, after arm surgery is quite the feat. So, what?s the problem?

    Scouts and fans alike love that fastball, but no one loves it like Capellan himself. He?s fallen for the pitch, and because of that, throws it way too often. Major League hitters fancy pitchers with this tendency, making the ?guess? of which pitch is next a lot easier. In his first start, Capellan was lit up in the first inning, throwing his fastball about 90% of the time. But after Leo came out for a visit, the right-hander started showing the curve more, and got out of a tough jam. Sometimes the curve can show a real sharp bite, but his tendency to leave it up in the zone will have to fade for his home run rates to stay low. Adding his ?nowhere-to-be-found? change to his normal repertoire would also assist his desire to stay in the rotation.

    Generously ? and I mean generously ? listed at 170 pounds, Capellan?s thick thighs pedal his large fastball. In this way he is quite reminiscent of similar stylists Bartolo Colon and Livan Hernandez, both of whom have been known to be fastball-friendly. Both have seen their HR/9 rates skyrocket since their youth, something I fear for Capellan, if not handled correctly. But that should not be a worry, as his change in organizations take him from the game?s best pitching coach, to the second best, Mike Maddux. While lacking the ?observations? to do this kind of a study, Maddux has had great success with the likes of Ben Sheets, Glendon Rusch, Doug Davis, and Dan Kolb.

    My gut tells me that eventually, it will be Capellan replacing Dan Kolb in the closer spot. Still, some sort of Major League success is almost a guarantee, which mightily helps in Prospectdom. His move takes him from the third prospect position in Atlanta to third in Milwaukee, both times sitting behind two position players.

    Behind Capellan in Atlanta, and possibly soon joining him in Cheeseland could be fellow pitching prospect Dan Meyer. Jim Callis mentioned Meyer as the likely second prospect in this deal, which would take the trade from swallowable to questionable for Atlanta fans. While I hate to question John Scheurholz, and in the wake of Ortiz? signing in Arizona point out that deal went quite well for the Braves even with Merkin Valdez on the Giants, one has to think that type of package could have brought in more than Kolb.

    When I first saw Meyer, I was immediately reminded of Mark Redman, southpaws that throw effortlessly in the high-80s with a lot of ?pitchability.? He has a nice slider and change up, and is much more ready to contribute to a rotation than Capellan. Meyer has spent time and succeeded at each minor league stop, consistently posting ERAs under 3.00. His final stop, twelve appearances in AAA, was his least dominating to date as his BB/9 topped 3.0 for the first time.

    If Maddux can keep Meyer?s control at pre-AAA levels, I think Meyer has the potential to top the careers of Redman or Mike Maroth. The spacious confines of Turner Field or Oakland?s Coliseum would have been nice for the Braves last collegiate first-round pick, but he?ll make do in Milwaukee. If this is true, then big props to Doug Melvin, who is quietly doing some good things up North.

    WTNY

    Meyer?s exit to Milwaukee likely means that the Giles-Meyer for Tim Hudson rumor was just that. While it looked as if Hudson would be a Cardinal a week ago, the likely destination (again, a rumor) now appears to be the Los Angeles Dodgers. From what I?ve heard, the A?s have had talks with five teams about their coveted right-hander: Baltimore, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and the Dodgers. The five ?rumored? trades, from what I?ve read:

    Los Angeles: Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez

    A solid package, no doubt, but probably not the best on the table. I really like Jackson, as he was my top rated pitcher before last season. After watching him pitch for the Dodgers in September, I recognized that might have been a bit high, but Jackson still has worlds of potential. Jackson effortlessly throws in the mid-90s, with a real good breaking pitch to boot. I can understand of concerns that Billy is building towards 2006 with this move, contradicting his acquisition of Jason Kendall.

    But with this, Billy is on his way to reshaping the Big Three. My guess is that Mulder will get things in gear next year, and become the one (if there is one) to remain an A. With Mulder, Harden and Jackson, the A?s would have a very good threesome for a long time. Joe Blanton isn?t bad either, and I?m sure that Billy will land another stud young pitcher if and when he trades Barry Zito in a year.

    As for Perez, I?m not sold he would be much more valuable than Mark Ellis, but at least he would provide more competition than anyone else by the Bay. I think in the least he will be a fairly valuable bench player, providing pop with the ability to play multiple positions. A younger replacement for Mark McLemore if you will.

    A?s rotation under this scenario: Mulder, Zito, Harden, Jackson, Blanton

    Atlanta: Marcus Giles and Dan Meyer

    By far the best offer, though I?ve heard that this is not what the Braves had in mind. Think of the improvement Giles would have on a team that received a .253/.299/.363 line from their second basemen last season. While Meyer would hardly replace Hudson, I could argue this version of a staff could still replicate the 4.24 ERA of Oakland?s 2003 starters.

    For Atlanta, I?m not sure this deal would be the best for them. They have already lost the negotiating rights to J.D. Drew, no doubt their MVP from last season. Chipper Jones is in the twilight of his career, and should slowly stop performing like everyone once thought. Johnny Estrada will not duplicate his 2004, and Andy Marte is not exactly a sure bet to produce power. Marcus Giles just might be the best bet (and Andruw) that this offense has for 2004.

    My hope is that Billy offered Hudson and Mark Ellis in this deal, though I?m not sure how much that changes the landscape from the Braves perspective.

    A?s rotation under this scenario: Mulder, Zito, Harden, Blanton, Meyer/Saarlos

    St. Louis: Dan Haren, Jason Marquis, Kiko Calero

    This is the trade that was hardly verified as to who was going where, with some mentions of either Jeff Suppan, Rick Ankiel or Daric Barton in the trade as well. But this is, with little variation, what I predominantly heard when Dan Patrick reported it as a done deal.

    Haren is not the player that Edwin Jackson is, but probably offers more upside than Dan Meyer does. He led the PCL in strikeouts last year, using a big slider to rack up a lot of strikeouts. My guess is that him and Joe Blanton would battle it out in Spring Training, with the possibility of Marquis moving to the swingman role. I?m not sure whether I like Haren or Blanton more, with both of them topping out as a third starter in my mind. That, of course, is no low praise.

    Marquis, one of the few non-Mazzone successes, is purely a marginal pitcher that could also be pawned for something when Beane was ready. I like Calero out of the bullpen as a second or third right-hander, which would allow Beane to non-tender Chad Bradford and open up a few more dollars to keep Erubiel Durazo.

    A?s rotation under this scenario: Mulder, Zito, Harden, Marquis, Blanton/Haren

    Baltimore: Erik Bedard, B.J. Ryan, PTBNL

    As I talked about on Friday, there is no way I will believe that the O?s offered Bedard and top prospect Nick Markakis, who is one of Peter Angelos? favorites. This is by far the worst offer that was made to the A?s, which is also why it didn?t hold up very long. Bedard spells marginal, and while I like Ryan, he is only one year away from free agency. Not a lot to talk about here.

    A?s rotation under this scenario: Mulder, Zito, Harden, Bedard, Blanton

    Philadelphia: Ryan Madson and Chase Utley

    This can definitely be viewed as the poor man?s version of the Los Angeles deal, with Madson hardly matching Jackson?s potential, and Utley only a slight improvement on Antonio Perez. The problem here is that Madson?s move back to the rotation would hardly be guaranteed, as his one start trial this year went quite poorly. The A?s are flush in reliever prospects, and Madson would provide little improvement on the Garcia-Street-Dotel trio.

    A?s rotation under this scenario: Mulder, Zito, Harden, Madson, Blanton

    Since it looks like talks with the Braves have broken down, Beane must consider either keeping Huddy or the Los Angeles deal. My vote would be LA, with a return to greatness circled in 2006.

    WTNY

    Toronto made a nice little move getting Chad Gaudin from the Devil Rays, trading Kevin Cash, who hardly appears to be an improvement on Toby Hall. I don?t know what they plan to do behind the plate, but no matter who they choose, the position shouldn?t land much for Tampa. They dealt away Gaudin, described by some as a ?slider pitcher?, describing his extreme preference for his best pitch.

    If you are wondering where you know his name from, Gaudin got a decent amount of press when he threw a perfect game in his first AA start, for the since-gone Orlando Rays. He drew a fair amount of hype because of the game, popping up on a few prospect lists. Overall, Gaudin is a marginal pitcher with a career in the bullpen far more likely than the rotation. Still, with Guillermo Quiroz on the horizon, J.P. made a real nice deal here.

    WTNYDecember 10, 2004
    The Minors in the Major Moves
    By Bryan Smith

    I?m a little late to get this up today, but I wanted to give you guys something to read over Winter Meetings weekend. I?ll be back on Monday with a full Rule 5 breakdown, but for now, let?s look at the Major League world, and see how it might be affecting some our favorite young guns.

    - In the last few days, the hot name on the block has been the disgruntled Tim Hudson. I?m not sold on the fact that Beane will trade his star right-hander, but I wouldn?t put it past him either. Beane will only, and I mean only, make a trade that improves Oakland from a baseball perspective. He?s good enough to not let his economic handicap get in the way of winning. And this coming from a guy that doesn?t like him.

    With that being said, do not expect the Baltimore Orioles to be landing Huddy this weekend, or any weekend in the near future. The Baltimore Sun (sorry, no link) was talking about a deal in which two pitchers and one hitter would go the A?s in exchange for Hudson. The rumor I heard was B.J. Ryan, Erik Bedard and Nick Markakis. While Ryan and Bedard make sense, as would Jerry Hairston, to think the O?s are going to be parting with the former Junior College Player of the Year is ludicrous.

    Very few prospects in the minors should be considered as ?untouchable? as Markakis. This isn?t necessarily solely reflective of his talents, but surprisingly also his heritage. Like owner Peter Angelos, Markakis is Greek, and was a part of the Olympic team that Angelos helped fund and put together this year. He is a favorite of the ownership, which like the Mets runs the franchise, and will not soon be dealt.

    The rumor that does make sense for Oakland is the Marcus Giles and Dan Meyer rumor that the Atlanta Journal Constitution speculated to. Even though Mark Ellis is coming back, Giles would put a solid bat in the one spot in the lineup that is really missing a lot of lumber. Meyer would go into the rotation, likely putting up similar (if not better) statistics to Mark Redman, 2004 version. The only scary aspect of this trade for Oakland is that it would make their rotation have two rookies, Meyer and Joe Blanton. With the problems that Oakland pitching had last year, are they really ready to trust Curt Young with two rookies?

    As for Atlanta, I?m not completely sure whether I think this trade makes sense or not. Hudson would immediately be put on top of the rotation, being the best starter in Atlanta since Greg Maddux of old. If JC is right, and Mazzone makes the .55-.85 difference in ERA, the two could put up some sick numbers next season. I would then let Smoltz move back to the rotation, and have a staff look like this: Hudson, Smoltz, Hampton, Thomson, Ramirez. Then, move Capellan to the bullpen, where he and Juan Cruz can duke it out for the closer spot.

    - There is no question that a few of the signings this week will have a major impact on the future of a few minor league stars, at least within their organization. It should come as no shock that one of the teams I am talking about are the Yankees, who don?t exactly look within their own system for help too often anymore. While two million dollars per season isn?t too much, the Yankees sent a resounding message to Robinson Cano (playing quite well in winter ball) that he?s not wanted here. I can guarantee that Cano would put up similar, if not better numbers, than Womack if given the chance. Same can be said for Brad Halsey and Eric Milton, but who listens to me?

    Troy Glaus to Arizona, who had that one guessed right? Last year they expected a little controversy at third base with Chad Tracy and Shea Hillenbrand, but I guess they went with option C here. Glaus is great, but like Luis Gonzalez, might be needing a move over to first base. If they both do that becomes quite the problem, no matter how many outfield prospects they have. I can?t really see the Diamondbacks trading Tracy anywhere, but if you are Arizona, what do you do with him?

    Philadelphia looks to be realizing their chances at winning a pennant, and much less a division, are slowly slipping away, and are currently executing the now or never approach. The offense should slip a bit every season, as their horses (Thome, Lieberthal, Abreu) are on the inevitable downward path of their career, though no one told Bobby yet. Jon Lieber?s signing shows Ed Wade?s now-or-never approach, one that will leave Gavin Floyd in AAA to start the season. If it?s really all or nothing in 2005, why not try and make Randy Johnson work by offering Howard, Byrd, and Floyd/Myers?

    Finally, the jaw-dropping Jermaine Dye to Chicago move actually does have an effect on Brian Anderson, the White Sox best prospect. If the team does not trade Carlos Lee, which is of course a possibility, then Anderson appears to be a bit blocked. I think the hole will open up in 2006, when Anderson will be ready anyway, but this definitely will keep a chain on him this season. Slow and steady wins the race though, so this might be the best thing for Anderson after all.

    I know this week has been a bit cheap on content people, but come back next week, as I?ll be much better about the number and the length of articles. Enjoy the Winter Meeting Madness.

    WTNYDecember 08, 2004
    Flawed
    By Bryan Smith

    Speaking for myself, I all too often fall into the trap of forgetting about players when they spend an entire, or the majority, of the season on the DL. But I?ve kept some notes, and with the help of the guru (Mr. Will Carroll), today will be spent on a few players that you might have lost interest in, and try to put their placement in both rankings and within their organization into perspective.

    The fact that Cole Hamels and Greg Miller were difficult to rank last year only makes it harder to do so now. Miller?s arm was reported hurt during Spring Training last season, long after many prospect reports had come out declaring him a legitimate top ten prospect. This was due to a fantastic 2003 season, where Miller had turned on the gas halfway through the season in the FSL, ending the season spectacularly in with four great starts.

    He had been considered a stretch when Logan White took the hometown southpaw with the 31st overall choice in the 2002 draft, capitalizing that few teams saw the improvements Miller made shortly before being drafted. With size, power, and four pitches, Miller?s domination went from his first days in the Pioneer League up to his injury. While I did have Edwin Jackson a bit higher in my rankings last season, Miller was my second rated pitcher in February.

    Hamels was the more obvious selection in 2002, he had long been heralded pitching in San Diego. Despite not having the power and size of Miller, Hamels had many ways to make up for it on scouting reports. Will has told me how highly he thinks of Hamels pitching mechanics, calling them the best in the minor leagues. His change up was said by Delmon Young to be the nastiest pitch that he had seen, which is extremely high praise.

    No matter how you slice them, Hamels and Miller made up two of the top three left-handed prospects last season (throw Kazmir in the middle). According to Will, Miller?s ?shoulder wasn't bad when they went in, but he's still young and having shoulder problems.? Obviously Miller is going to take a beating in my rankings for losing a season, but he?ll be a 20-year-old in AA with good stuff next year. As for Cole, ?[he] appears to be fragile. He'll need a season plus of healthy pitching in the minors to regain elite status.? So in the end, this tells us that Miller should still be over Cole, but by a narrow margin.

    A pitcher that will end up a little farther down the ranking list, but still a personal favorite of mine is Angel Guzman. What does that tell you? That being a personal favorite in my book takes little else than playing for Iowa, West Tenn, Daytona or?Peoria. I never bought into the Baseball America, ?Guzman could advance like Prior? lingo, but his talents are obvious. While doing rehab work in the FSL this year, Guzman showed he is a great prospect, posting a 40/0 K/BB.

    Will points out to me that Guzman has a ?frayed labrum, not torn.? It may or may not increase the likelihood of later tearing the labrum I?m told, oftentimes depending on the player. Guzman will begin the year in a fairly stacked AAA rotation (an organizational depth chart is on my to-do list), and according to Carroll, ?push [Rusch] by midseason.? But don?t tell Dusty Cubs fans, we do want to keep Guzman rather than trade him to the Braves for say, Andy Pratt.

    There are two offensive players I want to talk about, both currently sporting injuries to their shoulders. Val Majewski became noticed this season when posting good numbers in the Eastern League, later earning a trip up to Baltimore for September. Unfortunately, his visit did no go as planned, as Majewski would tear his labrum. Will told me that this is the same injury that Richie Sexson had last year, but that apparently Val is healthy. Carroll also says that this is what happened to J.J. Hardy, player #2, two years ago, and Hardy did not play baseball this season.

    I?ve often referred to Hardy as being greatly overrated, serving up the Royce Clayton comparison last year. I got knocked for this comp, and while I hate injuries to prove me right, the chance Hardy does not become the All-Star that some predicted has risen greatly in the last year. He was beginning to prove me wrong, showing increased power in Indianapolis, before his shoulder injury reoccurred. The Brewers will send him back to AAA next season, in hopes that he joins Milwaukee some time around the same time as Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. While I understand the love that Hardy gets, mark my words, he will not be a .275 hitter in the Bigs.

    As for Majewski, his injury has left me quite confused as to where I should slot him. If the truth is that he?s really healthy, and he continues on his previously good-looking path, he?s a legitimate top 50 prospect. If the shoulder further decreases his power, already not that good, he brings nothing to the table that Larry Bigbie does not. And as Will told me, ?he?s an O, so who knows?? Apparently, Baltimore isn?t too direct in disclosing about injuries.

    In the end, Val will have a place on my top 75 prospect list. I have to try and balance the two choices, knowing I could look stupid either way. But his ceiling was always a bit limited, so I?m not too worried. Expect the Orioles to send Majewski to AAA after some good ol? extended spring training, where he proves whether his worth justifies Bigbie?s exit.

    Of the 5, my ranking will be Miller, Hamels, Guzman, Majewski and Hardy. The first two and second two are pretty close together, while Hardy will be left off the top 75 entirely. If you have any questions on these five or any other injured minor leaguer, drop a comment.

    WTNYDecember 06, 2004
    Overrated, Like USC in the BCS 3
    By Bryan Smith

    As I slowly trot towards producing my top 75 prospects list (yes, I know I keep teasing, my hope has always been mid-January), I have realized that my own views on prospects are sometimes quite off. My instincts, the prospect list I sat down and made myself after the season, has held up fairly strong, but I think two main surprises are worth writing about.

    In September, I wrote an article entitled “Los Tres Enemigos”, about the threesome of Jeff Francoeur, Jeremy Hermida and Felix Pie. The last paragraph of this article reads as follows:


    Barring injury, I don’t question that these three players will all be in the National League by 2007. Each should be great, though Hermida needs more power, Pie more polish and Francoeur more discipline. But age tends to help all three of those attributes, so I expect them all to start sliding towards stardom. And who knows, maybe my grouping will be grouped in the 2010 NL All-Star team together?

    Right now, only three months later, I would like to retract what I said. Sure, both Jeremy Hermida and Jeff Francoeur are real, star-studded prospects, but one is just not like the other. Felix Pie is the sore thumb, the eyesore, the one not destined for a headline-catching career.

    Since the age of 17, Pie has been hyped up by the media and Cubs organization alike. His story, of a very humbling beginning in the sport of baseball, was noteworthy enough to be remembered by lots of people. What we have fallen guilty to though, has been to look at these numbers, and assume that Pie was destined for the superstar fate of many raw Dominican players before him. What I am slowly coming to realize, is that is not true.

    It first started to hit me last year that maybe Pie wasn’t quite the next Vladimir Guerrero, but better suited for a leadoff spot. I guess a .388 slugging percentage, even in the Midwest League, will do that to an evaluator. Maybe it was the fact that his home runs doubled in 74 less at-bats, but I continued to think quite highly of Pie. In a state of reflection, I have realized that my thinking of him is far overrated.

    This is mainly because that when his .441 slugging impressed me this year, it was bloated. As was his .569 SLG in the Arizona Summer League, when he was put on the prospect map. And even this, so was his scarily low .388 slugging percentage. These numbers are higher because triples take at least 25% of Pie’s extra-base hits. In the AZL, they took up an astounding 39.4%.

    The problem with these numbers, is that triples tend to go down when the level goes up. In the FSL, the average team hit 34.42 triples last season, where the average MLB team 29.93 in about 40 more games.

    Pie does have insanely fast raw speed, which also led to his career-high 32 stolen bases last year. I do think that will transfer into a lot of triples, but probably not one every 43.1 at-bats, like he did in the Florida State League. Only two hitters, speedsters Carl Crawford and Chone Figgins, tripled at a higher rate last season. If we assume Pie to be in the next tier, the #3-7 speedsters, he’ll triple at a 1/50-55AB next year.

    While I agree this won’t have a huge impact on his slugging, it will have some. His plate discipline isn’t that good, and he strikes out too much. To me, he profiles to be a .280/.340/.400 hitter in the Majors. Not terrible, but definitely lower than what many evaluators are predicting.

    But so I’m not going too far on the ledge, let me say that this will not necessarily stay this way. Few players reach AA at the age of 20, so there is no denying Pie is special. The question, is how special.

    To me, that same question currently exists for Carlos Quentin, former first-round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks. While Pie is boasting a slugging highly based on triples, Quentin’s OBP is jacked on hit-by-pitches. This season, between the hitter-friendly California and Texas Leagues (and even more hitter-friendly Lancaster and El Paso stadiums), Quentin put together a .435 OBP.

    In doing so, Carlos Quentin was hit by 43 pitches. If he did that in the Major Leagues, that would represent the second-highest total since 1900. Had Carlos dropped to normal high-Major numbers, say 15 HBP, his on-base percentage would be .404. Basically .031 points of OBP, at least, are reliant on being hit by pitches.

    Like triples, hit by pitches go down as triples go up. While I did the calculations one day, I’ve since lost them, but I can promise that there is a real correlation between level and HBP, going from a lot during A-ball, to very few in the Majors. But at the same time, I don’t find it any coincidence that the same players are often at the top of the HBP leaderboards.

    Ron Hunt, Don Baylor, Craig Biggio, Hughie Jennings. Nowadays, we have Jason Kendall and Jason LaRue. The same guys…always. Is this a talent?

    To me, Quentin is most likely to be a .300/.375/.475 hitter in the Bigs. Again, it could be worse, depending on how much of a difference those Arizona minor league parks make.

    OK, neither Pie nor Quentin in my top 40. Crazy?

    WTNYDecember 03, 2004
    Mix And Match
    By Bryan Smith

    For those of you that were sick of hearing Barry Bonds’ name before this story broke, here is some weekend reading material.

    Though the story was broken first here on A-B over at the Beat, I wanted to touch on the signing of Kendry Morales. In case you haven’t read Rich or Transaction Guy recently, the Anaheim Angels announced a six-year signing of Morales, a switch-hitting Cuban 21-year-old first baseman, yesterday. The terms call for a $3 million signing bonus, with incentives built in that could make the contract worth ten million dollars.

    Given the lack of success from other Cuban signees, this move is a large risk on the part of the Angels. But according to Scouting Director Eddie Bane, who has apparently had Morales on his radar since the age of 16, it is a very calculated risk. During the conference call announcing this signing, Bane said that Morales has faced Scott Kazmir and a few other players currently in the Major Leagues.

    Everything I have heard about Morales screams talent. He is supposed to have plus-plus power, and his numbers in the cleanup spot with the Cuban National Team are fantastic. He did not participate in the most recent Olympic Games, because he had already left in America.

    My policy when doing my formal prospect rankings is to never include players with no professional experience, eliminating foreign signees and recent draftees alike. Because of this policy, Morales will not be in my top 75 prospects list (I promise, it will come sooner or later). If so, I can’t say I know where he would fit in. My guess is somewhere after Kotchman and Fielder, but before James Loney and Jason Stokes.

    Speaking of Kotchman, he has a spot in all of this, because as said by Mr. Lederer, “With the addition of Morales, Casey Kotchman becomes more expendable than ever.” I have always thought that the Angels could offer Arizona the best package of any ‘Unit-Contender’. If I were the Diamondbacks, I would take a Kotchman, Ervin Santana, Juan Rivera package in a second.

    Rivera would provide a replacement, and an improvement, over the departing Danny Bautista. While the Diamondbacks are currently flush in outfield prospects between Josh Kroeger, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin and Jon Zeringue, but Rivera is an extremely safe bet. Kotchman would immediately be inserted at first base, providing an improvement on Lyle Overbay, who they unfortunately traded for Richie Sexson a year ago. And Santana, while not currently ready, would become the Diamondbacks best pitching prospect.

    At the same time, I’m just not sure I would make this offer if I were Bill Stoneman. More than any other prospect, Casey Kotchman is the surest bet to reach his ceiling, though we wonder if that tops out at Sean Casey, Will Clark, or something greater. Bane could not think of a comparable player for Morales, which scares me a bit. It has been a year out of organized ball for this kid, to expect him to immediately claim a spot on the Major League roster is expecting way too much.

    *********************

    In a story long developed, but under-reported on my fault, Jeff Allison has announced that he will be back in Spring Training next year. Allison spent the 2004 season not playing, because of a substance abuse issue. Apparently over his addiction, the 2003 first-round pick will try to pick up where he left off as the nation’s best high school pitcher during the spring of 2003.

    Before Allison got over the addiction, it appeared as both Florida teams would have problems with local legends. Tampa Bay had the best prospect in the game before Josh Hamilton stopped playing organized baseball, of which he has still not returned to. Allison, who posted some of the best numbers I’ve ever seen as a high school Senior.

    To me, Allison is a similar player to Scott Kazmir, in the fact that both were legitimate top-five talents that fell into the teens due to signability concerns. Both had insane stuff coming out of high school, and both were two of the top players drafted in their year. If Allison can bounce back, he still could turn into quite the prospect.

    But these kind of stories are larger than baseball, and let’s just hope that Allison continues his strong quest to overcome an injury that goes much beyond the body.

    *******************

    OK, and yes, I will give you guys the Winter League update that you deserve. I can’t explain why I’ve been so quiet on the AFL and on other winter leagues, but I try to give y’all an update every now and again…

    First of all, we begin in the Venezuelan League, where this year, they will play the whole season. In this year’s season, Yusmeiro Petit and Alex Romero look to be the two aces. Petit broke out this season with the Mets, showing an increased ability to change speeds and strike out batters. He has continued success in his hometown Venezuelan League, though I’m not sure playing extra is the best idea for me.

    As for Romero, he’s showing similar power that Alexis Rios showed in the Winter Leagues last year. But I believe this means very little, as Rios brought that power to the Majors not at all, showing less power than just about everyone else in the Majors this season. I’m not sure whether he is a good Rule 5 pick or not, but I would love to see what he does in the Eastern League if he’s not.

    Since I mentioned a ‘good baseball story’ in Jeff Allison already, I want to mention that WTNY favorite Rick Ankiel is continuing his return success in the Puerto Rican League. He is second in the league in strikeouts, and while his ERA leaves a little to be desired, his progress is fantastic.

    But it has been the Dominican League that has been the largest haven for prospects. Two players featured in my reliever report, Jose Capellan and Denny Bautista, have been disastrous in the DL, making many wonder why their organizations let them continue pitching. Carlos Lugo, over at Baseball Prospectus, made this comment on Capellan (supporting my relief claim in my mind):


    Jose Capellan had a rough outing Monday against the Estrellas in San Pedro de Macoris. Capellan came into the game with just six hits and two walks allowed in 12 innings, and a 0.75 ERA. But that night the prospect's secondary pitches were not effective, his fastball a couple of miles slower and poorly located. The result was seven runs in an inning and a third, with seven hits allowed. An interesting note on Capellan is that he seems much more bigger than last winter, and bigger than the 6'3", 170 lbs. he's listed at the Register. Capellan must weigh around 200 lbs.

    Cubs prospect Felix Pie is struggling, hardly able to muster a .300 OBP. But the same cannot be said for Joel Guzman, who is hitting over .300, showing his dominance over Pie in prospect terms. Frankly Cub fans, I don’t see Pie hitting for power as first projected, and we just better hope he continues walking and provides us with a good leadoff hitter for years to come. Or, at least trade bait.

    I’ll do a full-length Dominican report another time, but just wanted to give you guys something to chew on for the weekend.

    WTNYDecember 02, 2004
    Reading Into The Rule (5)
    By Bryan Smith

    Nothing is more confusing in Major League Baseball than the Rule 5 draft. Absolutely nothing. I've heard stories of front offices being confused on the rules, and it's seldom that analysts have a real handle before the draft. I have done some work trying to find the best, and most likely, drafted players.

    Let me first say that this has come both through my own digging through 40-man rosters, and through the great assistance of these articles, one from Rotoworld and the other from Batter's Box. Before I start, let me solve a few misconceptions around the Internet:

    - In Cubdom, Chadd Blasko is NOT eligible for the draft, because he signed a 2003 contract, making this only his second draft since signing. On the other hand, Andy Sisco IS eligible. Also, JK Ryu is not eligible either.
    Update: I am told that Ryu is in fact eligible, making him one of the top 15 draft-eligible players available. His playing career began in 2001, making this upcoming draft his fourth. If teams can ignore his head issues, Ryu could be the most talented, yet Major League ready, player available.

    - Manny Parra of the Brewers is NOT eligible...he was a draft-and-follow, signing in the spring rather than the fall.

    That's all for now, if you have any other questions, drop it in the comments box below this article. Now, let's try to make a list that both has players that should be drafted, and players that will be drafted. To me, Rule 5 picks are often LOOGYs, or 5th OF types. There can be raw infielders and right-handers with good stuff as well. I would always be quick to draft a first-rounder if I was in a Major League front office, spending $50,000 to see how a player will respond to being the 25th man is a worthwhile risk for me.

    Below, are the twelve players that I think should - and could - be drafted in Anaheim.

    1. Andy Sisco- LHP- Chicago Cubs

    Of every player on this list, Andy Sisco provides the largest question mark. First and most glaring to me, a Cubs fan, is why the Hell did Hendry/Fleita choose John Koronka over Sisco? Yikes. Other questions associated with Sisco are, can a pitching coach find the stuff that made this kid a second-round pick? Is this guy the next Ty Howington, destined for an arm problem? And lastly, how can you not risk $50,000 on a 6-9 southpaw?

    To me, Sisco should be the top choice in the draft, no question. Arizona has the first overall selection, and I think the staff there knows how to handle tall southpaws. I mean, Sisco would be the second-tallest left-hander ever in the Majors, behind one Randy Johnson. Forget the poor year in high-A, and the rumored loss of stuff, spend 50k trying to turn Sisco into a power reliever and in the right direction.

    2. Colt Griffin- RHP- Kansas City Royals

    I put Colt second, mostly because he is very similar to Sisco. You know Griffin's name because he is a former top-ten overall choice out of a Texas high school, mostly because he once made radar guns extend their normal width. The knock on him in high school was that he had some control issues, possibly because that fastball was just a little too good. At every level he has spent ten or more innings at, Griffin's BB/9 has been under 5.00 all of ONCE.

    But, what should be noticed, was that once was 2004 in the Texas League. Converted to relief by Royals brass, Griffin had a 4.02 ERA in over 31 innings. He allowed only two home runs, and while his K/9 was under 9.00 (and his fastball well under 100), he showed obvious signs of effectiveness. Will Carroll and I were wondering what Nolan Ryan could do spending a winter with him, but that probably isn't going to happen. Texas does not choose into well in the teens, and some have to wonder if going back home could put pressure on a guy that has had a bit too much of that. Milwaukee, with one of the best pitching coaches in the game, should be selecting him fifth.

    3. Tyler Johnson (LHP) and 4. John Nelson (SS)- St. Louis Cardinals

    To start off my description of these two, let me first totally agree with Matthew Pouliot's take on these players entrance on this list, "Hard to figure what the Cards were thinking adding Mike Mahoney and Scott Seabol but leaving Tyler Johnson and Nelson off their roster." This in my mind is as much a gaffe as Sisco, though I'm not sure either of these players had an immediate - or long-term even - future in this organization.

    Johnson was one of my favorite Cardinals prospects a year ago, which wasn't saying much given the state of the system. He has not had a bad season yet, and his career peripherals are solid: K/9 over 10.00 and a 7.43 H/9. What is worrisome that is during 2003, Johnson spent the second half of his season dominating the Southern League, and then proceeded to worsen a bit there this year. Still, his numbers were good, he's a 23-year-old LOOGY, with one problem: 37 walks in 56.1 innings. Johnson is the first of three LOOGYs on this list, and let me tell you right now, he's my favorite.

    Nelson is really someone the Cardinals should have protected, because they need to see what Southern League OPS fits him as a player better: 615 or 920. That is a massive difference, and to undergo that type of a change in one season screams fluke. But Nelson will turn 26 during Spring Training, and one has to wonder if his .301/.396/.524 line up the middle is for real. He played so little that it might be the case of too small a sample size, but I think his old Midwest League OPS of .802 represents his possible peak as a Major Leaguer. Of course, it could be .550 too. Dan O'Dowd is holding the seventh pick in the draft, and if Bill Bavasi doesn't trump him, the Rockies should try taking Nelson. Also fits: Cincinnati, Minnesota.

    5. Jason Cooper- OF- Cleveland Indians

    It's really hard for me not to endorse someone if Dave Cameron does, because I respect him as much as anyone in the prospect-evaluating market. Over at U.S.S. Mariner, this is what Cameron said of Cooper:


    With most of the 40 man rosters being finalized already, it appears to me that this years potential rule 5 steal is Moses Lake’s own Jason Cooper. He had a disappointing season for Double-A Akron, but there’s still life in his bat. For those who trumpet the cause of Ryan Howard, I’d suggest that Cooper is actually a comparable talent. He’s a 1B/LF with some serious power who can be pitched to and will have to make adjustments against good breaking balls. He’s not a star in the making, but could be a nifty bat off the bench.

    Cameron, an avid Carolina League attendee, probably has confidence in Cooper due to seeing him in 2003, where his OPS was .908 in 67 games. This is a guy that strikes out in 20-25% of his at-bats, but also takes a good share of walks. I don't like the ballpark in Akron that Cooper spent his 2004, and think he could make a Major League team quite happy. I think the Mariners and Mets are two examples of teams that could use this.

    6. Blake McGinley- LHP- New York Mets

    The first of two left-handers that the Mets left available, I think McGinley is one of the safest bets on this list. Look at his 2001 NYPL, his 2002 SAL, and his 2003 FSL numbers, all have ERAs under 2.00. And the story with Blake is this is a guy that strikes out more than nine per game, and will only walk two guys during the same contest. His HR/9 problem in AA this year is quite alarming, but McGinley reminds me of the southpaw version of Cardinal reliever Kiko Calero. He is going to be able to be both a LOOGY and a middle reliever, and will make the Toronto Blue Jays quite happy.

    7. Royce Ring- LHP- New York Mets

    If nothing else, Ring will be one of the many things that White Sox fans can hold against Ken Williams, especially if Joe Blanton contends for Rookie of the Year and the Sox still have fifth starter problems. Williams choice of Ring in the Moneyball draft has became as notorious as it was stupid, and looks even worse since Ring isn't even the player we saw as a shutdown reliever in college. He's not fantastic, but he's Major League ready, and comes at little to no cost. Jim Bowden should be considering him in Washington, allowing him to non-tender some of the overrated LOOGYs in the organization.

    8. Dan Denham- RHP- Cleveland Indians

    I like ex-first rounders, and Denham is that. I like pitchers that do not allow a lot of home runs, and before reaching the Eastern League in the second half of this season, Denham provided that. His stuff right now is 'fringy', and he's running very close to simply being labeled a 'bust'. But I would spend $50,000 seeing if Denham's stuff improves in one or two-inning stints, as I think it might. This is a risk that the Pirates, Orioles or Rangers should be taking.

    9. Corey Myers- C/3B- Arizona Diamondbacks

    If you think that it's embarassing for the Kansas City Royals to possibly lose Colt Griffin, think about this, Corey Myers was the FOURTH player selected in the 1999 draft. After struggling his first few seasons, Myers has allowed some nice Arizona minor league ballparks to boost his numbers. But don't let me make him sound too bad, he was one of the AFL's seven best hitters, and he's making a nice transition to the catching position. He'll probably slip until the second-round of the Rule 5 draft, where J.P. should consider taking him. Others are calling for Mike Napoli, who put up some big numbers thanks to the good ol' California League.

    10. Kevin Barry- RHP- Atlanta Braves

    I'm not sold on Barry, and not sure I would take the risk on him. His BB/9 constant fluctuates between the mid-3.00s and the mid-5.00s, and at each, he's a completely different player. He can be valuable, though he's probably not as good of a choice as organization-mate Buddy Hernandez, who has virtually no chance of being drafted...again. Barry has an 11.94 K/9 since entering professional baseball, and that alone should get him drafted by some organization.

    Finally, I really still like two players that have experience in this process, but still are not convincing organizations of their worth:

    11. Colter Bean- RHP- New York Yankees

    Chosen by Theo Epstein a year ago, you have to wonder if that will be a selling point to GMs this time around. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if his selection was purely to piss Brian Cashman, and whoever runs the Columbus Clippers off. Bean did not stick in Boston, and went back to Columbus, where he put up some crazy, crazy numbers. 109 strikeouts in 82.2 innings, against only 61 hits and 23 walks. I've talked to an unimpressed viewer of Bean, but I remain rather confident that he should get another chance with a different organization. Maybe Theo can talk Mark Shapiro into it.

    Update: Sorry everyone, I am reporting incorrectly listing Bean as Rule 5 eligible. I don't want to add any more misconceptions to an already clouded world, so I can promise you won't be hearing Bean change hands anytime soon.

    12. Marshall McDougall- IF- Texas Rangers

    Let's get over selling McDougall because he once hit four home runs in a game when he was a collegiate, and focus that as a super utility man, Marshall actually has some value. While playing a host of different positions, McDougall hit well in the hitter-friendly parks in the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues. He has Rob Mackowiak potential, though he still strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, and could become a bit better defensively. Still, this should be the ideal choice for the Nats, who should be filling up bench spots cheaply.

    Finally, in conclusion, let me give you 5 other names you might hear:

    - David Espinosa (Tigers)- Ex-First Rounder has moved to the outfield, and had a good season in AA. I like Espinosa, but if all he is playing is the outfield, I'm not sure he's worth the selection.

    - Drew Meyer (Rangers)- Can I just say ditto?

    - Alex Romero (Twins)- I've talked about Romero on this site before as a potential breakout player for 2005. A switch-hitter, Romero put up solid numbers in the difficult FSL, while still playing a modest centerfield. I think you have to give this guy time to develop, but someone might not be willing to pass.

    - Mike Stodolka (Royals)- Another old first-rounder, with a left arm that's been through surgery. He started the recovery well last year, but it's probably worth waiting it out on him if you are another organization.

    - Javier Guzman (Pirates)- Hector Luna, Jose Morban, Felix Escalona, Luis Ugueto. You know the names, those real raw shortstops that have no real reason sitting on a roster for six months. They always attract someone...always.

    Hope that was helpful, drop any questions or comments below.

    WTNYNovember 30, 2004
    Pardon As They Relieve Themselves
    By Bryan Smith

    When perusing through scouting reports on prospects, you'll often read that starting pitcher prospects would make a great closer. I don't have enough time to make a full entry today, but I wanted to combine a few scouting reports and extra thoughts to get your opinions on the prospects of four top 50 pitchers moving to the bullpen. Normally I am greatly against this, but if it appears that the player simply will not reach his full potential in the rotation, making him the closer is hardly despicable.

    The Win Shares leaderboards are hardly as dominated by starters as one would think, James' system recognizes relievers as important players too. If a player is better suited in relief, stretching his career out into mediocre 5-6 inning appearances is a bad idea. Today, I will attack four players: Scott Kazmir, Jose Capellan, Merkin Valdez and Denny Bautista. In the comments, please tell me your thoughts on these players, the idea of moving these players to the bullpen, and your idea of that philosophy in general. Let's go in order of how high I would rank them, starting with the ex-Met (sorry, needed that quick jab).

    Scott Kazmir- First, for the proper scouting report on Kazmir, I give you what Rich Lederer wrote following his debut, in an article entitled "Great Scott". This sums up a lot of the thoughts I had when vieweing Kazmir myself:


    The #15 overall pick in the 2002 draft, Kazmir was everything we had all heard and read. He threw 93-95 mph consistently and hit 96 and 97 on the gun on occasion. The lefty has an easy throwing motion, filthy stuff, and seemingly impressive composure for someone who is not even old enough to drink...He already has a major-league caliber fastball and slider and only needs to further develop his change-up (a pitch that he wasn’t afraid to use Monday night) and improve his control to become known as the Kazmir Sweater—the type of pitcher that will send opponents perspiring in anticipation of facing him.

    For years, I was a seller of Kazmir, buying into the "poor man's Billy Wagner" hype a lot more than Ron Guidry, as Rich also suggested. His blend of height, power, and a lack of a third pitch cry for a move to the bullpen. But Kazmir did not have troubles when facing the Red Sox or Tigers for a second time, as relief-worthy starting pitchers sometimes do. The only negative is that during pitches 46-60, and then 61-75, Kazmir allowed respective OPS numbers of 1.423 and 1.311. Yes, this is an insanely small sample size, but if Kazmir flops at 45 like Pedro does at 100, maybe using him as a closer won't be so bad for the Devil Rays after all.


    Jose Capellan- Not well known before the season, Capellan flew through four levels in 2004, finishing the season with the Braves. His HR/9 rates were amazing in the minors, a trait needed for a good reliever, but also a telling statistic for a starting pitcher. Using the wonderful MLB TV, I tuned in for Capellan's first start, and afterwards wrote this:


    Like in the Futures Game, Capellan began the game throwing primarily fastballs. It’s a great pitch, 96-99 mph, but without anything else caused some problems. In the first inning, Capellan allowed two hits, two walks and a run, pitches out of a bases loaded, one out jam. This was because Jose started to mix in his curve, a low-80s pitch with sharp, downward bite. It’s a good pitch, and sees problems when he leaves it up in the zone. He finished the game well, retiring eight of the last nine batters he faced...With thick thighs powering his fastball, Capellan is reminiscent of the Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez type pitcher. After watching the Futures Game, I speculated Capellan may be best out of the bullpen, but I think he could have a Colon-like career in starting.

    And then there is this comment I made after watching Capellan throw all of fifteen pitches at the 2004 Futures Game, in my game report entitled "Baseball's Crystal Ball".

    The same wasn’t true by Jose Capellan, the Braves prospect that seemed to dominate his inning despite allowing a hit to Wright. Capellan threw his fastball from 95-98, using it on thirteen of his fifteen total pitches. His curve was rather unimpressive, and though this might depress Braves’ fans, Capellan reminded me of a younger Kyle Farnsworth.

    So, in the course of two months, I gave two drastically different comparisons for Capellan: Colon and Farnsworth. It seemed as I liked his curveball more the second time around, citing the bite, while acknowledging his tendency to leave it up in the zone too much. Expect Leo Mazzone to attack this matter quickly, and thoroughly. But still, this only gives him two real pitches. While it hasn't been talked about, could John Smoltz and Capellan switch roles in 2005?

    Merkin Valdez- This is an odd example, because it is not an idea thought of by prospect evaluators, but by the San Francisco Giants themselves. Since the club was in the middle of a pennant race without a closer, Brian Sabean began to think of new ideas to find the player who would dominate the ninth inning. Matt Herges was not up for the role, neither was 2003 first-rounder David Aardsma. They hadn't yet thought of Dustin Hermanson, who would do the job fine in September. So, they brought in Valdez, who did a terrible job, and was almost immediately sent back to starting. But was Sabean onto something? Here were my Future Game thoughts:


    El Mago threw the bottom half, throwing one of the easiest mid-90s fastballs that I have ever seen. It didn’t look like Valdez was laboring at all, and he also threw a change and curve in his eight pitch stint. After retiring Fielder and Wright, Valdez was taken out to let the fans see Jairo Garcia, the A’s reliever that just finished storming threw the Midwest League.

    It's hard to give too much of a scouting report based on eight pitches, but I could quickly tell that Valdez was quite the talent. My feeling that he threw 'easy' is something that works well for a starting pitcher, because it means that he puts little stress on his arm. An innings-eater with a mid-90s fastball is a rare commodity, and one of the few that should not in anyway be subject to the move to closer. Also, since he threw two other solid pitches in such a short appearance, I'm convinced that Valdez has the versatility to be another Giant starting prospect. Jerome Williams, Matt Cain, Jesse Foppert and Merkin Valdez. Even Logan White might be jealous of that foursome.

    Before getting to Bautista, let me say that this is when my personal account becomes less affective, and I will lean on Baseball America. I hate to do this, to simply regurgiate other's work, but for the purpose of discussion, excuse me just this once.

    Denny Bautista- No matter how you look at it, this was the steal of the 2004 season. Jason Grimsley, a fairly-replaceable right-handed reliever, was a coveted attraction by the non-contending Baltimore Orioles. Somehow, Baird had enough leverage to demand Bautista, who the Orioles had stolen from the Marlins for Jeff Conine the previous season. Why they gave in, I'll never fully understand. I don't have too many thoughts on Bautista, but did offer this bit when placing Bautista in my preseason top 50 prospects:


    No one impressed me more at the Futures Game than Denny Bautista, a huge right-hander that the Orioles acquired for Jeff Conine last season. Bautista, a cousin of Pedro and Ramon Martinez, throws a fantastic fastball that was the best of any pitcher at the Futures Game. His curveball was impressive as well, but I won’t be shocked to see Bautista to become a reliever.

    OK, so I saw it more than a year ago, and the talk keeps getting louder as Bautista moves up the ladder. While the U.S. Cellular Field radar gun was terrible during the 2003 Futures Game, I'll never forget Bautista's "heavy" mid-90s fastball. Even from my seats on the third base line, I was able to see the movement on Bautista's fastball, and how it troubled hitters greatly. According to Baseball America, Bautista has as many as four solid pitches, just none like that fastball. In his chat on the system, Will Kimmey kept reiterating that Bautista's future might be replacing Mike MacDougal. I hope they at least give him a chance to prove himself otherwise first.

    OK, I just want to start the discussion here. If you have seen these players pitch, voice in. If you follow these teams, voice in. If you have opinions on moving pitchers to the bullpen, voice in. Hell, if you have any prospect-related question or comment, voice in. I'm just beginning the dialogue...

    WTNYNovember 29, 2004
    Once Good
    By Bryan Smith

    1985. Michael Jordan was just becoming a household name, and the Chicago Bears were the national icons from the Windy City. They dominated our televisions, and the likes of George Michael and Madonna ruled our radios. And in a thrilling October, the Kansas City Royals won the World Series.

    The team ruled by George Brett, Charlie Liebrandt, Bret Saberhagen and Dan Quisenberry would narrowly eclipse the St. Louis Cardinals, winning the last three games to take the crown in seven. What we could not have predicted then was this team would not win a division in the next 20 years, while passing the 85 win barrier just once. This organization, one that dominated it's division from 1976-1985, would become one of the laughingstocks of baseball.

    In the 20 years since the great Royal team of October, the Royals have had nine different managers. This ranged from the young John Wathan, to the old Bob Boone; from the fiery Hal McRae to the player's favorite Tony Pena. They have had eleven different ERA leaders, from Saberhagen to Kevin Appier to Mac Suzuki. And finally, twelve different players have led the team in OPS, including Gary Gaetti, Danny Tartabull and good ol' Chili Davis.

    If I have not proved it yet, the Royal organization is a poor one. But I have praised Allard Baird in the past months, and admittedly (and embarassingly) predicted KC to take the AL Central this past season. Why I feel some connection to this franchise, despite needing a team to root for against the White Sox, is beyond me. But I do, and the desire to start from the basement has intrigued me. So, I ask, when will Kansas City become the organization it was 20 years ago?

    Despite all the bad teams, a number of good players have come through Kansas City. The latest - Carlos Beltran - is currently the hottest name on the free agent market. The problems Baird has is that he's not giving his player development staff enough good players, and once he has them, he can't keep them long. Sure, he can have the occasional Mike Sweeney, but even that can turn into a disaster.

    I don't mean to keep bashing the Royals, but when I research the team, there is little to praise. Sweeney was the wrong player to lock up, and Baird's hauls from both Beltran and Jermaine Dye are not anything to be proud of. But I don't mean to keep raining on Kauffman Stadium - a ballpark I really liked - so I'll get to the good things.

    Even if you don't consider Buck, Wood and Teahen enough for Beltran, you have to recognize that Beltran did have some steals on the trade market this season. Jason Grimsley, an aging reliever with little importance to the team, was traded for Denny Bautista, arguably their top prospect. And Justin Huber, once one of the game's best catching prospects, was acquired for little more than a waiver acquisition. Jamie Cerda was stolen from the Mets a little ways into the season, for some flame-throwing arm no different than Nate Field. So all six players, for Beltran, is definitely something to be proud of.

    And even though the team finished with the second-worst record in baseball, they had some young players provide some real bright spots. The most obvious was Zack Greinke, my vote for American League Rookie of the Year. A favorite of mine, Greinke was at times dominating, while impressing his front office, players and opponents alike. The home run rates need to decline, but his improvement in striking out batters towards the end of the season was intriguing. David DeJesus produced an impressive .360 on-base percentage, though his .401 SLG must improve, as well as his 8/19 record on the basepaths. Calvin Pickering quickly proved that there is solid available talent constantly on the minor league free agent market.

    By the same token, a lot of youngsters took a step back in 2004. Jimmy Gobble's ri-gosh-damn-diculous 2.98 K/9 is way, way too low, and will never allow his ERA to dip below 4.00. Mike MacDougal and Jeremy Affeldt failed to step forward and become dominant forces in the late innings. Angel Berroa took a huge step backwards, even earning a demotion during an ugly August. Mike Wood and John Buck were both a bit disappointing in September call-ups, making me think even worse of the Beltran trade. And if any of you readers like Ken Harvey...ahh...ahh...calm down, Bryan.

    So, if I act as armchair General Manager, where do I go from here? First, let me compliment Baird on the quiet signing of Chris Truby, formerly known as the next Astro third basemen. Truby hit .300/.367/.558 in AAA with the Pirates last season, even while playing every single infield position. Truby could prove to being a better signing than Tony Graffanino, one of my favorite players, and someone I wanted to platoon with Todd Walker rather than Grudzi in Chicago last season. Truby will allow the Royals to slow down Mark Teahen, who keeps pressing that he is ready for Major League play. Sooner or later, they have to give in, but not quite.

    Teahen was a huge favorite of Baird, and I always wonder when talented scouts rave about certain players. His defense at third base is fantastic, and I believe he can hit for league average in the AVE category for the length of his career. My concerns lie more in the OBP, SLG and K categories. During his tear of the Texas League, Teahen struck out in more than 22% of his at-bats, and in 28.9% of his AAA at-bats. This is simply too much for someone who could only muster a 156 ISO in the Pacific Coast League. And I could go for a few more walks, and what worries me is that he started drawing less when moving to Omaha, an organization that preached discipline far less.

    Joining Truby/Teahen on the left side next April will be Angel Berroa, who should not draw a lot of competition. Berroa was fantastic in September, hitting .321/.379/.453 and showing what made him the Rookie of the Year. After showing a knack for leading off, Berroa was abysmal in the one-spot in 2004, preferring to hit eighth in the lineup. This will be OK with the emergence of DeJesus, the Beltran/Damon successor. Expect a bit more out of Berroa next year, though I think he will gradually build towards those rookie numbers, not immediately return to them.

    Who should turn the double play with Berroa, is the larger question. Ruben Gotay showed some good things and some bad things during his stint, and thus should be sent to AAA to refine his skills. Tony Graffanino will be healthy in April, and I would go with my former favorite White Sox with the position. If Teahen proves to be ready, than maybe Truby could play the Michael Cuddyer role and occasionally spell TGraff. But since they have the stopgap already under contract, they might as well let the position battle between Gotay and Donnie Murphy be decided in the minor leagues.

    One position battle that cannot be ignored, is that between Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering. If you have gotten this far in the article, you likely realize my choice would be Pickering. If I were Baird, I would desperately try to work a three-way trade in which he trades either Harvey or Mike Sweeney, and can somehow land Ryan Howard. Having the Pickering-Howard power in the middle would be a nice start in reworking this team. But something tells me that KC fans will be left waiting for Sweeney's contract to end and Harvey's power to come. One will come sooner than the other, but both are just too far away to wait for.

    The outfield is another big question mark, with only DeJesus really a lock to claim a spot. I assume that Matt Stairs will get a full-time position, though I would prefer it was Stairs vs. RH, and Ruben Mateo (another nifty waiver claim) facing the southpaws. As for right field, it looks like Terence Long. Just close your eyes Royals fans, maybe Chris Lubanski will break out, jump three levels and be there...by 2006.

    So, what about the rotation. If I close my eyes and wonder what Kansas City will have there in five years, I see this: Greinke, Bautista, Mike Pelfrey, J.P. Howell. The fifth I don't know, but I can tell you that I fully expect the Royals to take Pelfrey - a Royal fan and Wichita State University superstar - with the second choice in next June's draft. And yes, I do realize the insanity in predicting a college player to be in a certain team's rotation come 2009. But hey, that's what I do.

    But for now, the team might as well try out the Jimmy Gobbles, Mike Woods, Runlevys Hernandezs and Miguel Asencios. They might as well keep trying to pluck the next Johan Santana from the Rule V draft, possibly selecting Andy Sisco from my Cubbies this December. They should keep checking the waiver wire and minor league free agency market for someone they can land on the cheap, while keeping around at least one Brian Anderson-type. Because of the liberty Baird has here, I really like the Dennis Tankersly acquisition.

    Kansas City is going to be bad, for awhile. But taking care of the Angel Berroas, Mark Teahens, Zack Greinkes and Denny Bautistas, while looking for more in the Dennys Reyes-mold, is the right idea. Don't fight Daniel Glass for dollars now, that time will come...though I do worry that will be closer to 2085.

    WTNYNovember 23, 2004
    It's Like This and Like That...
    By Bryan Smith

    I'm heading out of town for the rest of the week today, so call this site on Thanksgiving break until next Monday. Before I do so, I want to get rid of a lot of the random thoughts floating around my brain.

    - Now that the AFL has gone, you'll probably see a lot of critiques over real small sample sizes. These numbers are a lot like short-season ball (where it's college players over high school) but instead hitters over pitchers. Sandy Alderson has publicly stated that one of the AFL's largest problems is the quality of pitching doesn't match that of the hitting. This is true for two reasons: teams don't want their top prospects throwing another 20-40 innings, and Arizona isn't the place for pitching. The first step to bridging the gap would be moving over to Florida, a move that Major League Baseball is quite unprepared to make. So for now, we'll have to settle for fringe pitchers fighting for 40-man roster spots.

    - This was done successfully by a few players, notably Russ Rohlicek in the Cubs organization. During his 19.2 innings in the AFL, Russ provided what he has done for the last two years: great peripherals that don't involve the BB column. His problem is control, and has been for years. A player with a BB/9 over 4.50 is not valuable, even in short LOOGY-like appearances. But what would make Rohlicek a likely Rule 5 pick is that a team would hope their pitching coach could get the walks under control, while keeping all the other good things. I was pleased to see the Cubs make the right decision here, though I'm not so sure with Geovany Soto.

    - Despite the lack of depth in the AFL pitching corps, I do want to mention the players that had a successful fall. Macay McBride falls under the same column as Rohlicek, as his performance locked up his 40-man roster spot. While his ERA was high, that's a column you should pretty much ignore, his good strikeout numbers are enthusiastic. The same can be said for Bobby Bradley, the once highly-thought of Pirates prospect battling back from injury. Sean Marshall, also from the Cubs organization, pitched for the first time in a few weeks, and his K/BB of 8 raises some eyebrows. Finally, Twins prospects J.D. Durbin and Scott Baker were talked about both for their velocity, and poise.

    - But the most impressive Fall pitching performances came in the bullpen, from Huston Street and Brad Baker. Street, a first-round pick just last June, struck out 19 and walked only two hitters in 18.1 innings. His continued success keeps drawing interest, and fuels debate that Street should begin the season in the back end of the bullpen. While some worried last March about the A's fringe back-end of Chad Bradford, Jim Mecir and Arthur Rhodes, 2005 provides hope that the 7-8-9 innings of Street, Jairo Garcia and Octavio Dotel will improve at a cheaper cost. As for Baker, it looks as if his move to relief will be another success story, and he should join Akinori Otsuka in the late innings relatively soon.

    - As for the sluggers, I would say eight hitters really impressed me with their autumn actions. Chris Shelton was the best player in the league, following a year spent at the highest level in professional baseball. In the very least, Shelton proved that he should at least factor in as the leftie-hitting side of a platoon, if not take over for Carlos Pena in 2005. The next most impressive, and winner of the inaugural Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award, was the Royals' Mark Teahen. Allard Baird really liked Teahen before pulling the trigger on the Carlos Beltran deal, and has left the hot corner wide open next year. Who knows if Teahen will hit for power, but he saves a lot of money, with no loss in OPS from Joe Randa.

    Shelton was not the only first basemen raising eyebrows, as that position reigned supreme. Ryan Howard, while making his attempt to learn the left field position (behind the scenes), led the league with 14 doubles. The Phillies are most definitely going to trade Howard for a center fielder this winter, and I've heard names from Scott Podsednik to Endy Chavez even to Vernon Wells mentioned as candidates. The sticking point in trades will be whether Howard can make the transition, which I'm not so sure. While the Indians just traded for Josh Phelps a couple months ago, they have his immediate successor ready in Ryan Garko.

    Pardon me while I get sidetracked for a second, but the Indians have a ton of offensive depth, and it's time for Mark Shapiro to start using this for his advantage. Casey Blake just finished up a fantastic year at the hot corner, as did Ronnie Belliard up the middle. Omar Vizquel's exit will allow either Johnny Peralta (IL MVP) or Brandon Phillips (ex-enormous prospect) to fill his shoes. Add Aaron Boone to the mix, and you have a crowded situation. In just 1B and DH, the Indians have Ben Broussard, Travis Hafner, Phelps and Garko. In the outfield, they have Matt Lawton, Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Jody Gerut. I say...

    1. Try to find suitor (Cubs?) for Matt Lawton, one of the more expensive players on the team. In return, get a back-end starter or reliever (Farnsworth?).

    2. Package both Phelps and Brandon Phillips together, and see if you can get anything of value. I would imagine a team like the Devil Rays, searching for cheap options, would come in handy here.

    3. Move Broussard to left, and keep Coco on the bench for a Gerut injury, or a Garko/Sizemore breakdown.

    Easier said than done. Now back to the AFL, with Jason Botts being the last first basemen on my impressed list. Botts obviously can rake, and could either slide into the DH spot (like this move) or let Mark Teixiera move to left (don't like). He has power, and in Coors Light, that power ain't going anywhere. Two already solid prospects, Jeremy Hermida and Conor Jackson, also enjoyed powerful Fall Leagues, with the former leading the AFL in XBH and the latter in HR. Maybe Dave Cameron is right, and Hermida will make the Jeff Francis-ish leap to the top of prospect lists next year.

    A couple days after being a bit harsh on Omar Quintanilla, I want to mention his Fall League was fantastic, possibly signaling his late surge was for real. But his zero home runs satisfy the power doubts I have about him, though things could be worse. The kid only struck out five times in 91 at-bats, though he only walked 5 times as well. Note to Billy Beane: start teaching this kid second base...now.

    - I pretty much agree with the general consensus that the Angels won in the Jose Guillen trade, as Stonemann got as much back in Rivera as he gave up, for a much cheaper price. I have my doubts about Izturis, though maybe he could enjoy an Alex Cora-like career. And remember that in 2000, though in only 110 at-bats, Cora hit .373 in AAA...at the age of 24. OK, looking at minor league numbers, they are actually a lot more alike than I first realized when I thought of the comparison...weird.

    Rivera showed last year that he has a real bat, something that should interest the Arizona Diamondbacks. One spin I didn't hear among major media types, is that this Rivera probably won't spend a day in Anaheim if Stonemann had his wish. The Angels, who could already have a solid Anderson-Erstad-Guerrero outfield, have little room and time for a player like Rivera. But shipping him, as well as some more prospects to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson makes some sense.

    - If Peter Gammons is right, and the A's really can get Marcus Giles, Dan Meyer and another prospect for a member of the Big Three, they better do it. I love Dan Meyer, though I do realize that having Mark Redman and Meyer on the same team would be a bit odd.

    - Question of the week, and if you are still reading at this point, you must answer. This will in no way be enforced, but I am trusting you the reader here. My top three prospects are going to contain the names Felix Hernandez, Casey Kotchman and Delmon Young. How would you rank these three players?

    And enjoy the turkey.

    WTNYNovember 22, 2004
    The June 10
    By Bryan Smith

    As I slowly piece together a prospect list, one of the main questions I am encountered with is that of inclusion. Should I allow Casey Kotchman or Scott Kazmir, who were eerily close to the rookie cutoff? Yes. Should I allow Joe Mauer, who did not have enough official at-bats, but did have enough service time? No.

    Should I include players that were drafted this past June?

    This answer has changed in the last year, after putting both Rickie Weeks and Delmon Young in my preseason top twenty prospects. I have decided that no matter the hype, comparing 100 short-season at-bats to Jason Kubel's AA/AAA split is too difficult for a stat-driven prospector like myself. I applaud the geniuses over at Baseball America for being able to piece the two on one list, but that just ain't happening here.

    But ignoring the presence, the results of these draftees would be foolish, and go against the "Future Comes First" mentality here at WTNY. So in what I hope will become an annual tradition, I will precede any prospect list with a look back at the finds of the draft. Today we will be looking solely at the first-round selections, while I will at a later date hit on the post-Round 1 steals.

    Remember, Adam Miller and Chad Billingsley were late first-rounders in 2003, Matt Cain and Greg Miller in '02, and Bobby Crosby and Jeremy Bonderman in '01. There is always talent in the 20-40 section, and there is always someone to explode on the scene the next season. Some of this can be attributed to new pitches or new knowledge, but I like to think that we have a chance at seeing it coming.

    In this draft - despite it being mid-November - a lot of the players have left us with no statistical results at all. Whether it be a continued holdout, a cautious front office or an unsigned player, nine of the first 41 choices have all of zero appearances as professional players. Furthermore, two pitchers (yes I am looking at you Bill Bray and Philip Hughes) don't even have ten innings under their wings. So for that - and because not including them brings the number to 30 - these 11 players have been left out.

    Below is my account of the debuts of ten players, in the order of which they were drafted. The other twenty will be commented on in the coming days/weeks. Please drop your comments on any of these players, or those not spoken of, at the end of the article.

    Matt Bush- San Diego Padres- The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken a lot of heat for their half-hire of Wally Backman, allowing Kevin Towers and staff to back away from the 'Spotlight of Embarassment'. After considering many different options with their record fifth different first overall selection, the Padres sided with their pocketbook and chose the local Bush. Shortly after his signing, Bush was arrested shortly after debuting in the organization.

    But a bad head is not the only thing separating Bush from prospectdom, a bad bat is as well. Bush's season-line, split between the Arizona and Northwest Leagues, was .198/.304/.260. He shows solid range and a cannon arm up the middle, but that can only get you so far. Thirteen walks in 96 at-bats, good. Twenty-three strikeouts, bad. While Delmon Young and Joe Mauer have recently salvaged the first overall legacy, Bush looks like he belongs closer to the Brian Bullington/Josh Hamilton side.

    Mark Rogers- Milwaukee Brewers- I criticized the Brewers for this pick after the draft, mostly because the words 'raw', 'New Englander' and 'high school' seldom belong in the same sentence. A few months later, I reserve the right to stick with my original thought process, Homer Bailey and Jeremy Sowers were just better choices. Despite the recent successes of Jack Zduriencik, I see a lot more bad in Rogers than good.

    To clarify what I am looking at, it's a 4.72 ERA in the Arizona League. It's about a 10.12 H/9 in the least advanced league in professional baseball. Yes, I see the 0 HR allowed in 26.2 innings, and the 11.81 K/9, but if we're projecting relief for a player just drafted, he's in trouble.

    Chris Nelson- Colorado Rockies- Time to give your scouting department a raise. With their third top ten selection in three years, the Rockies have what looks to be a third solid choice. Jeff Francis was a polished Canadian southpaw in 2002, and Ian Stewart a California-boy with a lot of raw power. And finally, we have Nelson, a Georgian shortstop with the whole package.

    In the Pioneer League, Nelson hit .347 in just south of 150 at-bats. He also hit thirteen extra-base hits during that time, three of which were triples. I am in the belief that triples in the minors unfairly jack up slugging percentages across the board. But no matter how you look at it, Nelson has everything Bush does (minus the criminal record) and then some. Good choice by the Rockies, even if Nelson won't hit this good anytime soon.

    Thomas Diamond- Texas Rangers- Grady Fuson may have been run out of Texas, but not before he could provide them with a good draft, and a great player at the top. While I am pretty skeptical of collegiate pitchers from not-known programs, like the Univesity of New Orleans, Diamond showed fantastic polish after signing with the Rangers. Diamond pitched extremely well in the Northwest League - twenty-six strikeouts in 15.1 innings - and then continued his dominance in the Midwest League.

    Besides the college relievers, and the well-advanced Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew, I expect Diamond to be one of the first choices to hit the big leagues. He should be sent straight to high-A next season, as his 68/13 strikeout-walk ratio implies. With mid-90s gas and a solid breaking ball, Diamond could be joining a Ranger rotation that is becoming formidable...fast.

    Neil Walker- Pittsburgh Pirates- Despite my dislike for players that are drafted in accordance to where they live (Walker is from Pennsylvania), I like the Walker selection. I have heard good things about Walker behind the plate, both from him calling a good game to having a rocket arm. Plus, though his .156 ISO wasn't too indicative, a power bat behind the plate always sounds exquisite. Dave Littlefield has been itching to get out of Jason Kendall's contract since he was hired, and in Walker, the Pirates have likely found his successor.

    Billy Butler- Kansas City Royals- After reading this chat over at BA, defending Butler's selection as the Royals top prospect, I am pretty sold on this kid. In 260 at-bats in short-season baseball, Butler hit .373/.488/.596, one of the few minor leaguers to top a 1.000 OPS. His power is sensational...already...and according to Baseball America, has drawn comparisons to Zack Greinke of all people from Royals brass. Why Greinke? For his "cerebral approach" to each at-bat, which of course includes the willingness to watch four balls.

    David Purcey (Toronto) and Chris Lambert (St. Louis)- Forgive me while I break the "in the order of which they were drafted" methodology, so I can properly judge the Jays decision. With these two, it was J.P.'s choice between: a big, hard-throwing southpaw with solid control and no second pitch or a Big East rightie with good pitches but some control/mechanical problems. In the end, Riccardi went with the former, a move that is still a bit too early to criticize.

    Purcey pitched well in his twelve-inning debut, allowing six hits and one walk while striking out thirteen. But he went to a Big 12 school, so we can only hope short-season baseball was not too much of a test. Lambert had a bit less of what we'd call a sample size, getting in 38.1 solid innings. The knack on Lambert was proven true by his pitching, as he allowed 31 hits, struck out 46, but walked 24. How these players react to high-A ball, likely their next stop, will prove if J.P. made the right decision after all.

    Scott Elbert- Los Angeles Dodgers- Many people are treating the Paul DePodesta-Logan White relationship, one that they inherited, as a time bomb. Surely the "computer nerd" can't deal with such an impulse-buyer as White, right? Wrong. Logan White is one of the three best in the game in his position, and DePo will be willing to coexist wiht Logan as long as his farm system remains stacked.

    Elbert, I'm afraid, may not add to the stacked column. I think this draft will turn out fine for the Dodgers - you'll see later how much I like Blake DeWitt - but I just think Elbert could be a flopper. It's not really the 5.26 ERA that convinced me, it was more the low 1.50 K/BB and mediocre other peripherals across the board. Logan struck gold with Miller and Billingsley in back-to-back years, you couldn't honestly expect three out of three.

    Josh Fields- Chicago White Sox- I don't really know what to make out of Fields. Is he raw because he has spent so much time focusing on football? Is he polished because the White Sox sent him to the Carolina League upon his arrival in professional baseball? Ken Williams' new ideology of challenging his prospects, also seen in his placement of Sweeney and promotion of Anderson, often leaves us unsure of where these players stand, and Fields is not unique in that regard.

    With that being said, I can tell you that Fields is a very good hitter. Hitting .285, with a .160 ISO at this level, is awful impressive. And you better believe this kid has an arm...he's an ex-quarterback for God's sake!

    OK, ok, I'll bite. Here is your ranking of these ten players: Billy Butler, Chris Nelson, Thomas Diamond, Josh Fields, Neil Walker, Chris Lambert, David Purcey, Matt Bush, Mark Rogers and Scott Elbert.

    WTNYNovember 18, 2004
    Up the Middle
    By Bryan Smith

    Against little fight, Bobby Crosby won the American League Rookie of the Year crown. And while Jason Bay picked up the NL award, he was given quite the fight by the San Diego Padres’ Khalil Greene. Quite the week for collegiate shortstops, huh?

    When noticing my neglect for the Arizona Fall League, I plan to spend by next couple entries on AFL standouts. There are few better places to start, than Omar Quintanilla, who has been on and off the batting crown during the last couple weeks. Simultaneously, I am compiling my top group of prospects, and was at a loss where and if Aaron Hill should fit in. I thought the two, a pair of 2003 first-round collegiate shortstops, would make a good joint article.

    With the arrival of Crosby and Greene, the Major Leagues were home to four first-round collegiate shortstops. The other two are quite well-accomplished, in Barry Larkin and free agent Nomar Garciaparra. Today, I want to look at the minor league careers of this group, and use that to help us see what path Quintanilla and Hill are currently on.

    Barry Larkin was a stud at the University of Michigan, chosen fourth in the 1985 draft, which had one of the best top tens ever drafted, including the selection of Barry Bonds by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Larkin was 6-0, 185 pounds, and had the whole package. The Reds were so confident in his abilities that they sent Larkin to AA immediately upon signing.

    In the Eastern League, Larkin hit .267, but with a .078 ISO showing a lack of power. He hit only 16 extra-base hits, 13 of them doubles, providing a bit of hope for the future. Showing a lot of plate discipline, Barry struck out only 21 times in 255 at-bats, walking 23 times. With 12 stolen bases, Larkin was a few home runs from a five-tool talent.

    That came the next year, in the since-abandoned American Association, in which Larkin hit .329, with a .525 slugging percentage. This time around he hit 51 extra-base hits in 413 at-bats, including ten triples. One problem I have with the minor leagues, of which I’ll write about at a later point, is how HBP and 3B can juice up OBP and SLG, respectively. He also kept up his discipline, striking out just 43 times (but only walking 31!).

    So, how have these numbers been indicative of Larkin’s career? Barry currently has a career batting average of .295, split between his AA and AAA seasons. His SLG of .444 is also about half-way, though I should note he didn’t have a slugging percentage above .450 until his sixth season in the Major Leagues. His peak, during an insane 1996 peak was .567, though it was the only time he eclipsed .510. The strikeout numbers stayed low, with Barry never whiffing 70 times in a season. His patience waited as long as his power did, with an IsoP consistently in the .070 range after.

    Next, we have Nomar Garciaparra, who in my Nomar Destination of the Week will land with the White Sox, who will overpay to the tune of 2/18 or 3/25. Long before this free agency, Nomar was the 12th overall selection of the 1994 draft, following his Junior season with Georgia Tech. He was immediately sent to the Florida State League, where he hit .295, with a .419 slugging. In 105 at-bats, he had ten extra-base hits, eight of which were doubles. He walked more than he struck out as well, 10 and 6, respectively.

    A move to the Eastern League did not treat Nomar well, as his average slipped to .267, and his slugging to .384. Still his patience was great, with a 50/42 walk-strikeout ratio in 513 at-bats. He was still quite doubles-dependent, and shockingly, stole 35 bases that season. His IL experience with Pawtucket went perfectly, hitting .343 with a Bonds-esque .733 slugging. He homered more than he doubled, and while the BB/K slipped to 14/21, it was still quite solid.

    Let me interrupt your regularly-scheduled article to get back to Aaron Hill, who fits in quite nicely here. Chosen just one spot after Nomar nine years later, Hill spent his 2003 campaign split between the NYPL and the FSL. He expectedly dominated the NYPL, but his FSL numbers were quite pedestrian. He did hit .286, yes, but 7 doubles represented all his power in 119 at-bats, good for a .059 ISO. In fourteen more at-bats than Nomar at that level, Hill hit three less extra-base hits, but also showed the great plate discipline of Nomar.

    And like Nomar, Hill also moved to the Eastern League in his next season. He hit .279/.368/.410 in 480 at-bats, 33 less than Nomar. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that he walked thirteen times more, though he also struck out nineteen more. The power numbers are very similar, with Hill’s .131 ISO besting Nomar’s .117. I’m hardly saying they are on par for similar careers, just noting the facts.

    Both Hill and Omar Quintanilla have used the seemingly new popular trend for collegiate shortstops: send them to short-season ball, and then high-A. This was also used by Khalil Greene, who briefly stopped in the Northwest League, before making 183 California League at-bats. He hit .317/.368/.525 there, but then struggled in the Southern League with a .733 OPS. A modest PCL line of .288/.346/.442 was enough to convince the Padres’ staff they had their new shortstop groomed for action. Not a bad choice.

    I’ll touch back with Quintanilla here, because I think Greene bears the closest resemblance to him. Both are pretty short, though Greene’s listed weight is 25 pounds more than Omar’s. Q does hit left-handed, and is the only one on my list to do so. But I think his .314/.370/.480 line in the California League this past year is pretty telling. Though I’m sure Omar’s AA numbers will look better than Greene’s did (well, they already do!), that’s the Texas-Southern League advantage.

    During his 2004 season, Greene hit .273/.349/.446. To me, this implies that Omar would hit about .270/.340/.420 in his rookie season, with a peak looking pretty similar to his CL line. If he moves to second as expected, that won’t be bad, though Crosby will be showing him up a bit.

    While I might not have thought so before hand, Aaron Hill is the better prospect than Omar Quintanilla, by a pretty good ways. In fact, I would be willing to say that Baseball America should have chosen Hill – not Brandon League – as the top Blue Jays prospect.

    *By the way, sorry for my lack of posts this week, call it a combination of computer problems, real life, and WTNY projects. You should see a well-researched piece next week, and I am starting to try and put a top prospects piece to life, cuz I know how y’all love those rankings.

    WTNYNovember 15, 2004
    Forgotten
    By Bryan Smith

    When prospect mavens look back at the big selections from the first round of the 2003 draft, they will surely look at Delmon Young and Lastings Milledge. What they might overlook is the fact that chosen between the two stars were three outfielders that lack the hype and big debut numbers.

    While Young and Milledge came greatly polished from their California and Florida high schools, the meat of this outfield sandwich was drafted extremely raw. Sure, Nick Markakis was the junior college player of the year, but that was as a pitcher. Doc Rodgers, once the director of the farm system, preferred Markakis’ bat. And sure, Ryan Harvey was from a Florida school too, but he had missed a lot of time his senior season from surgery. Chris Lubanski? He was just some Pennsylvania speedster with low bonus demands.

    Both Milledge and Harvey were scouted as better prospects than Lubanski by most before the draft, but the Royals’ ability to sign a pre-draft deal made the latter the fifth overall pick. He was the first player signed from the draft, and as a result, had 221 at-bats in the Arizona League. Neither of the other two posed signability issues, as the Cubs always get their player, and Baltimore ownership was fond of the Greek Markakis.

    A year ago today, it looked like the Royals had outscouted everyone, as Lubanski’s debut led the trio. In his 53 games, the left-handed swinger hit .326, with an .834 OPS. His defense and basestealing capabilities (9/19 SB) were extremely raw, though his outstanding speed was evident. He struck out just about every game, and walked every three, hardly outstanding ratios.

    Who was second last year is a toss-up, Markakis showed more polish while Harvey displayed a higher ceiling. The former hit .283 in 205 games in the New York-Penn League, though his .112 ISO made some question Rodgers’ decision. Most intriguing was his 30/33 strikeout-walk ratio, and thirteen stolen bases in eighteen attempts on the basepaths.

    Harvey was the last to sign, only playing in fourteen games during the 2003 season. Depressingly for Cubs brass, the man some named Sosa’s successor before playing a professional game struck out 21 times in those fourteen games, in all of 51 at-bats. What looked good was the fact that of his twelve hits, half went for extra bases, which led to a .196 ISO.

    So, just three months after becoming top ten selections, it looked as if the seventh overall pick (Markakis) had jumped above the sixth (Harvey) in prospect terms. Some would even place the Greek two-way star tops of the three.

    A year later, the story remains true on the top: Markakis Reigns. While Young, Stewart and Milledge were the first-rounders to star in the Sally League, few noticed that Markakis put a very solid Sophomore campaign together. The big leftie hit .299, with a .171 ISO and .072 IsoP (OBP-BA). His power bat looks to be coming around, and his arm is obviously good enough for right field. Oriole fans can now commence dreaming about Val Majewski and Nick Markakis living on their outfield corners.

    Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Lubanski and Harvey offer such safe bets as Markakis does. Lubanski suffered the largest flop of the three, hitting just .276/.340/.419 in 439 at-bats in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. His stolen base completion percentage was over 50%, and his K/G was farther below 1.00 than it was in season 1. But, Lubanski does not look like he will hit with enough power to be in the middle of an order, or walk enough to be on the top. He’s simply the baseball version of a tweener.

    Ryan Harvey, on the other hand, is either going to be power hitter or bust. The Cubs, like they were with Brian Dopirak, are showing reluctance to move their hitting prospects at even a decent pace. So Harvey repeated short-season ball, this time moving from the Arizona League, to the Northwest League. He hit just .264 in 231 at-bats, striking out in more than 33% of AB. But his ISO was .217, showing that there is the power in his bat that leads some to believe he’ll be a great power prospect.

    If I was constructing a top 50 – which I am currently working on – Markakis would undoubtedly factor in the plans. Harvey and Lubanski will not garner any attention for the top 50, and would be stretches for the top 100 in my eyes. Expect Baseball America to view things different…very different.

    WTNYNovember 11, 2004
    Flop!
    By Bryan Smith

    Back in mid-August, I wrote an article entitled “History Lesson”, a recourse into the 1999 draft. I really enjoyed writing and researching for this article, and vowed to do so about another draft this offseason. Well, I take one day off, and voila. Today we deal with the ugliness of the 2000 draft.

    Now while it’s most appropriate to give minor leaguers six years after being signed, most of the solid members from the 2000 draft should be identifiable. And let me tell you, it ain’t much. In the last round, I gave an All-1999 draft team, but this draft does not allow me to do so. Instead, I will give you nine of the more accomplished players, in order of being drafted:

    - Rocco Baldelli (6th overall)
    - Chase Utley (15th overall)
    - Xavier Nady (49th overall)
    - Cliff Lee (105th overall)
    - Dontrelle Willis (223rd overall)
    - Brandon Webb (249th overall)
    - Rich Harden (510th overall)
    - Jason Bay (645th overall)
    - Adam LaRoche (880th overall)

    Let me add that this list was difficult to compile, and any ‘accomplished list’ with Utley and Nady in the top ten isn’t too deep. So they have two Rookies of the Year – and two more legit candidates – who cares? Only three players in the first three rounds were worth noting, two of which were the least accomplished of the group. What I also found noticeable is that no players in the top five are present, which we did not see in our last review.

    In fact, Baldelli is the only member of the top ten to appear in fifty Major League games. There are only three in the top 40. While the Marlins had hit jackpot choosing Josh Beckett second overall in the 1999 draft, their NL worst record led them to a rather dry crop of players in 2000. It appeared that Californian high school first basemen Adrian Gonzalez was the cream of the crop, with fantastic defense and a pure bat. Flop!

    This left the Minnesota Twins, at the height of their futility, to the best collegiate player out there: Adam Johnson. A power started from the hailed Cal-State Fullerton program, let’s just say that Johnson has not achieved the levels of success that the 2001 second overall pick (Prior) would reach. I could talk about his make-up issues that have prohibited his real arrival in Minnesota, but his career AAA ERA over 5.00 is what’s to blame. Flop!

    As a Cubs fan, it pains me to speak of the third overall choice. It pained me to read on that June 2000 day that my team had chosen a Florida high school shortstop first overall. Why? While not quite a prospect evaluator yet, I was understandably afraid of the word ‘raw’. Years later, ‘raw’ seemed to be the perfect word, so perfect that Montanez was moved from short to the outfield this season, being demoted to short-season ball in the process. Flop!

    229 strikeouts in 366 innings. 4.62 ERA. 1.42 WHIP. Meet the fourth overall selection, Mike Stodolka, five years later. Kansas City was choosing on the cheap here, because they didn’t want to pay the big dollars to Stanford ace Justin Wayne or Matt Harrington, who was said to have huge bonus demands. Flop!

    Wayne went fifth to the Expos, and would later be traded to the Florida Marlins in a deal for Cliff Floyd. He’s the most accomplished of the top five – a sorry feat – with 26 games and 62 innings under his belt.

    Matthew Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres, Shaun Boyd, Beau Hale, Miguel Negron. Meet the busts of the top twenty. Pardon me as I had to step over the great likes of Dave Krynzel, Joe Borchard, Chase Utley, Billy Traber, and the famous Ben Diggins. So if you haven’t caught my drift quite yet, let me be blunt: this was the worst draft in recent memory…by far.

    But I won’t be too critical. There have been 73 players from the draft to reach the Majors, only twenty less than the draft the season before. They are banking that players like Grady Sizemore, Dave Krynzel, Jason Kubel and J.D. Durbin create a belief that some depth exists.

    I am leaving you fairly short today, but let me throw in a quick few numbers for you to chew on:

    - No other draft has proven the dominance of collegiate selections like this one. Of the 73 players to make the Majors, an astounding 55 (75.3%) come from University programs. This doesn’t include Ruben Gotay (community college) or Bobby Hill, who had spent the prior season in the Independent League, a la J.D. Drew. But the high school roster has a far higher ceiling:

    1. Adrian Gonzalez
    2. Rocco Baldelli
    3. Dave Krynzel
    4. Sean Brunett
    5. J.D. Durbin
    6. Grady Sizemore
    7. Laynce Nix
    8. Josh Kroeger
    9. Shawn Hill
    10. Dontrelle Willis
    11. Jason Kubel
    12. Brian Bruney
    13. Justin Germano
    14. Ian Snell
    15. Victor Diaz

    - Both the Montreal Expos and Colorado Rockies had seven draftees make the Majors, with the Chicago Cubs (6) the only other team to have five. Unfortunately, Washington lost Wayne, Sizemore, Bay, Lee and Phil Seibel, keeping only Shawn Hill and Anthony Ferrari. The Rockies players have been unsuccessful, but fill in as decent role players. Despite the hideous Montanez selection, Cubs’ fans have to be pleased with the selections of Todd Wellemeyer, Jon Leicester and Jason Dubois.

    - In the last draft review, we saw 50 of the 93 success stories came from the first five rounds, about 53.7%. This time around, we see 33 of the 73 from rounds 1-5, only 45.2%. The reason for this is the lack of a third and fifth rounds, which produced one Major Leaguer (Sizemore, Garrett Atkins) each. Talk about some busts.

    That’s all for today, though I am currently plugging away to see if the 2000 draft really has the worst top five selections of all-time…

    WTNYNovember 09, 2004
    Battle Of Rarities
    By Bryan Smith

    While I hope everyone has enjoyed the team and position evaluations I have most recently written about, today will be geared back towards player comparisons. Today’s topic will be three, young, switch-hitting shortstops who all spent a good portion of their season in high-A. As always, I hope a look into each player will provide a clear ranking of the three.

    Despite being about thirteen months older than his Dominican counterparts, our Queens native has 712 and 786 less at-bats, respectively. Chosen in the third round of the 2003 draft, Tony Giarratano was a good player in his Freshman and Junior seasons while at Tulane University.

    In his freshman season with the Green Wave, Giarratano hit an impressive .352/.448/.457 in 264 at-bats. This was good enough to get him on the first-team Freshman All-America squad, as decided by Baseball America. He was tenth in Conference USA in batting average, and fifth in hits. Playing the whole season at second base, Tony followed with mediocre performances on Team USA, and then the Cape Cod League.

    His stellar first collegiate season was followed by a Sophmore slump, in which the infielder missed more than 15 games, and saw his OPS drop to .639. He split time all over the diamond, playing primarily on the left side of the infield. For his final season he would be moved to shortstop, where Giarratano enjoyed a .336/.394/.507 season. The combination of his poor sophomore season, lack of a defined position, and lack of power helped him slip to the third round, where the Tigers gave him a solid $500,000 bonus.

    A relatively quick signing allowed the Tigers to send their shortstop to the NYPL, where Giarratano was able to play 47 games. During his time there, the Tulane infielder hit .328/.369/.476. While this is somewhat intriguing, it should be noted that sabermatricians would be thrown off by his decline patience numbers. His IsoD (OBP-BA) was .086 his freshman year, solid, and the highest he has posted since leaving high school. It feel to .080 his sophomore season, then .058 as a power-hitting senior, and just .041 when making the transition to professional baseball.

    Enough about some ex-Tigers draft pick, what about the Dominican shortstops in the high-profile Red Sox and Angel organizations? What were Hanley Ramirez and Erick Aybar doing prior to entering the 2004 season?

    Both growing up in the Dominican Republic, in towns fairly close to each other (Ramirez- Santo Domingo, Aybar- Bani), Ramirez was the first to make a recorded debut in professional baseball. As a 17-year-old, Hanley had 197 at-bats in the Dominican Summer League. While The Baseball Cube does not have enough information to give me his on-base percentage, I can see that Ramirez hit .345 with a .533 slugging percentage. Already, there were rumors that Dan Duquette had hit the jackpot.

    In 2002, both players saw short-season ball action as 18-year-olds. Aybar was sent to the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, where he hit .326/.395/.469 in 273 at-bats. He also stole 15 bases in that fairly short amount of time, showing the speed that is often associated with him. Meanwhile, Hanley split the season between the GCL and NYPL, registering 164 and 97 at-bats, respectively. He hit .341/.402/.555 before being promoted, in which he ‘worsened’ to .371/.400/.536. The sharp decline in plate discipline is a little worrisome, but the organization hardly believed Ramirez was immune to the walk.

    So, at this point, Hanley is by far the best prospect of the three. Aybar made a nice little splash, but was lost in a pretty solid Anaheim system. Giarratano has allowed a terrible sophomore season to cloud his future in professional baseball. We know what 2003 brought to the latter, but no one would have seen what it presented Hanley.

    A slump, a suspension, a label. Like Giarratano did in his second season at Tulane, Ramirez had a slump in 2003 as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League. He hit .275/.327/.403, hardly the numbers of the top prospect he had been labeled before the season. Furthermore, the Red Sox had suspended him indefinitely for undisclosed attitude problems, which has kept the ‘arrogant’ tag on Ramirez’ neck ever since.

    Aybar saw this and ran with it. While the Midwest League is often far more difficult to hit in than the Sally League, Aybar had a solid .308/.346/.446 season. While this wasn’t enough to drop jaws, for the first time in his baseball existence, he was turning heads. A shortstop with a good batting average, a bit of pop, and 32 stolen bases? And still a teenager? Damn…

    Still, factor in Hanley’s disappointing seasons as well as good years’ by Aybar and TonyG, and you still have Ramirez atop the prospect list. He was showing Gold Glove-type defense as a teenager, with enough promise in his bat to allow Bostonians to hold their breath a bit longer.

    And this season, they were finally able to sigh some relief. Ramirez was dynamite this season, split between the Florida State League and the Eastern League. His batting average was .310 in both places and on-base percentage near .360 in both, but his rise in slugging (.389 to .512) will effect Theo’s decision-making this winter. If Ramirez can sustain the .310/.360/.512 type line he had in the Eastern League, he is a better option than Orlando Cabrera in 2007, if not 2006. Maybe Omar Vizquel can play a role for someone: placeholder.

    But Ramirez was not the only one of the three with gaudy numbers, ask Erick Aybar. The 20-year-old shortstop nearly won the California League MVP trophy, once Josh Barfield’s, after hitting .330/.370/.485. I would highly doubt if that slugging is ever approached again, as the CL has been known to do that to players before. Yes, he did steal 51 bases, but this has to be taken with a grain of salt considering the 36 times he was thrown out.

    TonyG had a good season as well, with a unique offensive explosion when moving from the MWL to the FSL. For some reason, Tiger brass saw it necessary to promote their third-rounder after just 43 Midwest League games, and an OPS of just .735. In hindsight, it looks like a golden move. Giarratano hit .376/.421/.505 with the Lakeland Tigers, and stole 25 bases for the season. He’s made the full-time move to shortstop, where he shows a good arm and a lack of sensational range.

    So, what’s next for these guys? Ramirez should actually stay in the Red Sox organization, with a spot opening up for him when ready. I would be shocked in the BoSox sign a SS for more than two years, basically calling for the trade of their best prospect.

    The opposite is true in Anaheim, where Arte Moreno will nearly surely sign either Nomar Garciaparra or Edgar Renteria. This officially puts Erick Aybar on the block, which is fine, considering some scouts like Brandon Wood better. I see Aybar sniffing an .800 OPS in his peak, with mostly a Cristian Guzman type career on the horizon. Actually, that’s a pretty sensational comparison.

    While he’s the oldest at the group, nearly 22, I’m most torn on TonyG. Is he, or is he not, a better prospect than Aybar. I’m leaning towards no, considering his ISO and IsoD weren’t even that good despite a great FSL average. He lacks the speed and range of Aybar, though he’s equally as batting average-dependent. It’s close, but I think you have to give the spot to Aybar.

    So, there you have it. To me, Hanley Ramirez is the best switch-hitting shortstop in the minor leagues, and is wrestling Ian Kinsler for the #2 SS prospect in baseball label. He probably loses by a little bit, with a top five of: Guzman, Kinsler, Ramirez, Santos, Quintanilla. Aybar and Giarratano round out the top 7, though J.J. Hardy will want his inclusion in there somewhere.

    How about this for the question of the day: name the 14 AL starting shortstops on Opening Day, 2007. Mine will be comment #1…

    WTNYNovember 08, 2004
    Tops
    By Bryan Smith

    So, we have already established the lack of a great left-handed pitching prospect, despite the noticeable depth there. Instead, it is their right-wing counterparts that encompass at least the top five spots in the pitching depth chart. None yet old enough to order a drink, there is a lot of hope invested in these five right arms.

    Three of them came as no surprise to their organizations, who selected them in the first-round of a draft. Chad Billingsley and Adam Miller were chosen within six picks of each other in the 2003 amateur draft, Matt Cain is a 2002 bonus baby. The 2003 draft, the first after the release of Moneyball, allowed Billingsley and Miller to be just the third and fourth high school pitchers selected, in the 24th and 31st positions respectively. While John Danks and Jeff Allison looked like the sure picks, it has been the Logan White and Mark Shapiro selections that are second to no other pitchers.

    Our final two were not chosen in any draft, but instead signed from the land below the United States, a.k.a. Venezuela. A new hotbed of talent, Felix Hernandez and Yusmeiro Petit hope to add two more names to the country’s growing reputation. No one could believe that a seventeen-year-old could do so much when Hernandez burst on the storm last year, tearing up both the Northwestern and Midwest Leagues. But it was his follow-up, encore performance at 18 that has validated his status as the game’s best pitching prospect. For Petit, it was a deadline trade and the New York spotlight that got his name out in the open.

    But enough about where they came from, let’s talk about where they are now. I’ve already hinted towards who is first on the list, but you knew that anyway. Now let’s look at why.

    First, let’s go through the rate stats for the year. This alone shows the flaw that evaluating prospects solely on statistics presents. Yusmeiro Petit, the most unknown of the group, led the fivesome in H/9, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB. By the same token, Felix Hernandez was the group’s worst in H/9, and failed to lead in any category. He was second or third across the board, narrowly trailing Billingsley for the HR/9 lead.

    Let’s not be too harsh though, they do have quite a purpose. I would never have guessed that Matt Cain would be the only pitcher to not have a K/9 over ten, registering at just 9.13. The combination of the second highest H/9 and BB/9 is a bad combination as well. Throw that in with the highest HR/9, and Cain has left me more unimpressed than I started. Yes, he has played in hitter’s parks, but Billingsley shows a lot more raw potential, and Miller seems to be more refined.

    So, how do we go from Felix being one of the statistics’ worst- and Petit being the best- to a complete switch? First of all, age. While everyone but Miller closed out the season in AA, Hernandez was the only pitcher who did so during his age 18 season. This dominance at such a young age has been the spark of Doc Gooden comparisons that have plagued Hernandez since pitching in Everett of the short-season Northwest League.

    The rest of ‘em just completed their final teenage season, but Petit does have a couple features that separates him from the group. At 6-0, 230 pounds, Petit’s stature is unlike any other pitcher on this list. Baseball America started the Sid Fernandez comparisons this year, which seem quite apt a year later. His inability to light up a radar gun is what costs him points in the prospect department, no matter how much higher his K/BB is above the rest of the group. Mediocre stuff combined with New York lights don’t add up great, ask Aaron Heilman.

    We have first and last, how does the middle of the pack go? It’s extremely close, but right now I would say Billingsley, Cain, Miller. Ask me in a week, and I’ll give you a completely different order. The Dodger has drawn comparisons to Kerry Wood for his great fastball-curveball combination, as well as his problems with control. Billingsley has a chance to hit the Majors next year, not even two years after Logan White made the gutsy choice. And that’s why this guy should get some big bucks.

    If you had asked me before I plugged the numbers and sat in front of my computer, I would have told you Matt Cain would be before Billingsley. Someone I respect, though I can’t remember who, once referred to Cain as a “manchild.” He was the best pitcher in the California League, including King Felix, before some peripheral struggles in Double-A. His timetable is a bit longer than Billingsley, and he already has a year on him. Anyway, let’s hope the two will be in some great match-ups for much of their careers.

    Can you imagine the NLCS in 7 years with Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert and Matt Cain vs. Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller and Chad Billingsley? Me too.

    Finally, we have Miller, who I wrote about back in this comparison with John Danks a few weeks ago. No other prospect, barring maybe Chuck Tiffany, closed out the season better than Miller. While playoff statistics don’t show up in end of the season totals, the Texan was the star of the Carolina League playoffs. His numbers are great across the board, and he was apparently up in the high-90s at year’s end.

    So, there you go, the top five pitching prospects who closed the season in the minor leagues:

    1) Felix Hernandez
    2) Chad Billingsley
    3) Matt Cain
    4) Adam Miller
    5) Yusmeiro Petit

    Now when you throw in Francis, Kazmir and Capellan it might make a difference, but not a huge one. Come on Deloney, pony up and give me your top ten. Y’all do it.

    WTNYNovember 04, 2004
    For the Lefties
    By Bryan Smith

    Since yesterday’s glowing report on Jon Lester was the best thing to happen to lefties this week, I have decided to spend today focusing on left-wingers. I know, I wouldn’t expect me to talk about that either, as it has been a long time since I touched on this group. But, I can’t write about hitters forever, and figured that southpaws deserved a piece.

    To my surprise, a look into left-handed pitchers in the minor leagues led me to a rather deep position, with a lot of solid arms. I’m not sure how high a leftie will be on my rankings, but I know that once you get farther into the list, they’ll appear quite often.

    And I should mention, that for the purpose of this article, I did not include 2004 draftees, which are a deep bunch with Bill Bray, Gio Gonzalez, Glen Perkins, etc. I also didn’t include Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis, as well as Adam Loewen, who I would not even know how to rank.

    After mentioning all the depth stuff, I should say that there is a clear-cut top two players on top of the heap: Scott Olsen and Cole Hamels. While there should not be a lot of debate that Olsen is the best arm, I do think that Baseball America/other prospect sources might overrate him a bit. While his 10.43 K/9 is great, I’m less than impressed by a 3.50 BB/9 and mediocre 8.38 H/9. Finally, in what Baseball Prospectus has rated as a pitcher’s park, Olsen allowed 8 home runs in 136.1 innings, not a ton, but still a bit too much.

    Olsen is the typical power pitcher, with a big 6-4 frame that could be built for even more. He needs to cut down that walk rate a bit, and his H/9 needs to come down to be a top pitching prospect in my book. His stuff, along with one great peripheral puts him at #1, everything else is purely marginal.

    To be hyping Hamels this offseason would simply be beating the same drum we wrote last season. The southpaw pitched a total of 24 innings this season, four fantastic seasons in the Florida State League. His changeup is still presumably fantastic, and his intelligence while pitching has likely remained the same. Health is really the only thing that will hold him back, though that does remain a concern. I’ll promise you that before releasing any overall rankings, I will make Will Carroll get on the phone with his Philly hook-ups.

    Following the top two players, there is a small, three-person battle for the third position. Candidate #1, the eldest, is Dan Meyer. His stuff is not going to amaze you, but I see Mark Redman, version 2.0. Both were first-rounders after their Junior seasons, with Redman a bit more highly thought of. But Meyer’s 2.73 ERA is far and away better than the 5.22 that Redman put up. Let’s just say the Pacific Coast League did not treat Redman well.

    Second on the three-person ballot is Chuck Tiffany, who closed out the season stop Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball America Prospect Report. I love players who close out the season well, and that will definitely help Tiffany and Adam Miller when it comes time for me to make my rankings. His 3.70 ERA, and a HR/9 near 1 are both bad numbers, but his K/9 is over 12.00, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is about 3.50. He reminds me of Scott Olsen, and should have similar numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

    The third and final candidate is the player always referred to as “the poor man’s Scott Kazmir.” What does this mean? Texan, short, big fastball, decent slider, hardly guaranteed to stick in the rotation. After dominating the Midwest League, the California League handed Danks a H/9 over 10.00, and a K/BB under 1.00. That’s not good. Poor man’s Kazmir sounds right after all.

    Right about now, you are probably thinking, “Whatever happened to that awesome left-handed pitching prospect from last year? The one that came from nowhere?” Oh, thought I forgot about Greg Miller, did ya? No, of course not. I’m not one to gauge injuries very well, but I did believe in Miller a lot up to last February. The reports from Instructional League were that Miller looked good, so he’s probably next on this list. If he can get back just part of what he used to be, he has the talent to be a lot higher.

    Only Dan Meyer has been the traditional “soft-throwing” left-handed pitcher that is often characterized in prospect lists. The next two will add a couple to that list: Mike Hinckley and Zach Duke. I’ve been a Hinckley fan for a while now, and his solid season fits right into the plans I had for him. He should be slotted in to the Washington Greys rotation by 2006, with a chance of even become a card-carrying member in 2005.

    As for Duke, he had the season that no one could have guessed, the ERA under 2.00, good for first in the minor leagues. His success is perplexing, but it’s there. His BB/9 was under 2.00 all season, and he allowed just five home runs all season (including 2 in 51.1 Eastern League innings). It’s hard for me to judge his performance, but I do think there is something to the fact that Duke’s minor league career looks far better than Sean Burnett’s did. And that is high praise. But the Pirates should remember- and Burnett is proof- that even soft throwers can hurt their arms.

    At this point we’ve hit another drop off, with a bunch of throwers below. First, I’ll read the rest of the top 15 as I have it: Francisco Liriano, Jake Stevens, Jon Lester, Mike Megrew, Bill Murphy, Sean Marshall, Justin Jones.

    I should say that I am a large seller of Murphy and Jones, two players that are highly supported by other prospect sources. I was not a fan of Murphy in the Futures Game, his numbers aren’t very good, and players that get traded twice in prospecthood turn me off. Jones wasn’t even solid in low-A, so I’m not sold he’ll reach the potential that was once given to him (Kazmiresque).

    Lester has already received my billing, so I’ll just start tooting Mike Megrew’s horn instead. A huge, 6-6 southpaw from New England, Megrew sounds like he does everything well. Los Angeles has a pitcher breakout every season, and I would choose Megrew to do so next year. Like Lester, his 3.41 ERA isn’t great, but a 10.65 K/9 is. Also, his H/9 is considerably better than what Olsen showed this year, in the exact same league.

    That’s all for today, my top 25:

    1. Scott Olsen- Florida
    2. Cole Hamels- Philadelphia
    3. Chuck Tiffany- Los Angeles
    4. Dan Meyer- Atlanta
    5. John Danks- Texas
    6. Greg Miller- Los Angeles
    7. Mike Hinckley- Washington
    8. Zach Duke- Pittsburgh
    9. Francisco Liriano- Minnesota
    10. Jake Stevens- Atlanta
    11. Jon Lester- Boston
    12. Mike Megrew- Los Angeles
    13. Bill Murphy- Arizona
    14. Sean Marshall- Cubbies
    15. Justin Jones- Minnesota
    16. Tom Gorzelanny- Pittsburgh
    17. Chuck James- Atlanta
    18. Abe Alvarez- Boston
    19. Chris Seddon- Tampa Bay
    20. Gustavo Chacin- Toronto
    21. Manny Parra- Milwaukee
    22. Jon Connolly- Cubbies
    23. Paul Maholm- Pittsburgh
    24. Andy Sisco- Cubbies
    25. Matt Chico- Arizona

    Where am I wrong?

    WTNYNovember 03, 2004
    My Two
    By Bryan Smith

    I'm not looking to brag, but I predicted Jeff Francis' breakout before the season. No, I hardly believe this is much more than a lucky guess, and am not going to call myself the "Expert of Underrated Prospects." But today I'm going to go out on a limb, and predict the breakout of two more pitching prospects.

    How much success am I predicting? Well, let's say that I believe these two players will be, in one year's time, one of the 3 best 1-2 pitching prospect tandems in the minor leagues. Funny to think that a year ago, I never would have guessed it would the World Champion Boston Red Sox that would own their rights.

    My favorite of the two had a 4.28 ERA in the Florida State League, so it is fair to say I'm going out on a limb. But, the Red Sox 2002 second-round pick pitched much better than his ERA implies. A southpaw, Jon Lester had sparkling peripheral numbers, from a 8.17 H/9, to a 9.66 K/9, to a 0.19 HR/9. The latter ratio, quickly becoming a favorite peripheral to me, is amazingly low. Sarasota, according to Baseball Prospectus 2004, is a slight hitter's park, meaning Lester's achievement of 2 homers allowed in 90.1 innings is fantastic.

    Yes, you heard that right, only 90.1 innings. Lester had 21 appearances with the Sarastoa Red Sox during the season, with an average of a little more than 4 IP per game. The Red Sox are using his arm sparingly, worried they'll rupture one of their better prospects. This is a big kid, listed at 6-3, and 200 pounds. He will turn 21 years of age during the offseason, and spend the 2005 season in the Eastern League.

    Off the top of my head, I would say that Lester ranks in my top 5 of southpaw pitching prospects in the minor leagues. But that, my friends, is a topic for another day.

    Lester's teammate for two seasons has been Jon Papelbon, a 2003 fourth-round pick from Mississippi State University. The former Bulldog was a reliever in college, with a 2.28 ERA in 25 games in his Senior Season. After being signed quickly, the Red Sox sent Papelbon to the New York-Penn League, where he had a 6.34 ERA in 13 games split between relieving and starting. He showed a good ratios in K/9, K/BB and HR/9, intriguing the club to extend Papelbon's stay in the rotation.

    One year later, this looks like a fantastic decision. In 24 starts with the Sarasota Red Sox, as a 23-year-old, Papelbon had a 2.64 ERA. He only allowed 97 hits in 129.2 innings, striking out 153, walking 43, and surrendering six home runs. This was a great season for the 6-4, 230-pound right-hander.

    According to Peter Gammons, the Eastern League Red Sox organization will be stacked next year, with Lester, Papelbon, Abe Alvarez and Manny Declareman all in their rotation. I am a fan of Alvarez, though not so much on Declareman. I think all three of my favorite pitchers could be ready for the Majors by 2006, with Lester having the billing of a future star. Papelbon's future in the big leagues is near guaranteed, though he could end up back in the bullpen. Alvarez is a very solid pitcher that could be what Bronson Arroyo was this season.

    Lester-Papelbon for 2005. What's your pick?

    WTNYNovember 01, 2004
    Discipline and Stats
    By Bryan Smith

    In the comments of my Thursday notes piece, I had a reader ask me about the future careers of Jeff Francoeur and Joel Guzman. He was concerned that the prospect-evaluators were overrating these players, because both left a little to be desired in terms of plate discipline. I like both of these players, and will surely have both in my top 25 rankings, but like anyone they are not guarantees.

    Another reader accused me of being too statistically-inclined, which I have accepted to be true before. While I promise to work on getting connections, and getting first-hand scouting reports, all I have now are my readings and The Baseball Cube. If I side too much with sabermatricians on prospect issues, I apologize, I’m trying to convert.

    Combining those two comments, I had the idea for my piece today: how much does plate discipline matter in prospectdom? Is it an essential trait, as some believe, or a learned trait, as the old schoolers will tell you? Today, we will be on the journey of that discovery…

    There is no real way to answer this question completely, but I have decided to take the Dayn Perry approach. I went to the Hardball Times statistics page, and got the name for every player who contributed 24 win shares, or 8 wins, to his team this year. This included 34 names, from Barry Bonds to Melvin Mora to Jimmy Rollins. I wanted to look at how these players walked and struck out in the minors.

    First, I went through and got each player’s BB/K rates for short-season leagues. This includes the Arizona and Gulf Coast Leagues, as well as the Appalachian League, the Northwest League, etc. I did not include the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues, because I am not sure the competition is quite as strong there.

    Combined, the 26 players had a 601/915 ratio (BB/K) in short-season ball, good for a .657 ratio. This includes drastically poor numbers from David Ortiz (37/98), Moises Alou (38/108) and Jeff Kent (33/81). Overall seven players walked more than they struck out: Gary Sheffield, Johnny Damon, Hank Blalock, Melvin Mora, Jimmy Rollins, Brian Giles and Juan Pierre.

    The next level I tested was low-A, which is to say the South Atlantic League and the Midwest League. Eleven of the 34 players missed this level, with four (Teixeira, Bonds, Drew, Berkman) skipping both short-season and low-A ball. Overall, the 23 had a 1022/1508 K/BB, a 3.2% increase from short-season ball. This time four players had a ratio of more than 1.00, both Blalock and Pierre repeated, with Mike Lowell and Albert Pujols joining the mix. The worst of the ratios came from Derek Jeter, Ortiz, Michael Young, Carlos Lee, and Jim Edmonds.

    Moving up the ladder, we see another improvement as the collaborative 1146/1583 ratio represents a 6.7% increase on the low-A numbers. I’ll give Sheff and Jason Kendall the credit here, they had a 128/70 split between the two. Edmonds continued his struggles, as did Alou, and both Miguel Tejada and Manny Ramirez were far from perfect. Even the great Barry Bonds could just muster a 37/52 rate. So, they aren’t perfect, people.

    The wall, as is usually recognized, is when a player reaches AA. Only three players (Bonds, Pujols, Cesar Izturis) skipped this level, leaving 31 to collect a K/BB of 1295/1615, a whopping 10.8% increase on high-A numbers. Eleven players walked more than they struck out, with Vladmir Guerrero, Adrian Beltre, Berkman and Todd Helton doing it for the first time. Four players had a ratio of worse than .5 (Ortiz, Carlos Guillen, Bobby Abreu, Edmonds), with another four right on the brink. It’s good to be solid here, but it’s hardly disastrous if you’re not.

    Triple-A represented a different kind of barrier, when plate discipline got worse for the group as a whole. Overall, 1397/1933, a 9.8% hit from AA. Six players hit the 1.0 mark, with Bonds, Scott Rolen, Sean Casey and Derek Jeter doing it for the first time. Three players (A-Rod, Edmonds, Izturis) were really bad, with the former two obviously becoming great players. Seven players skipped the level completely, with another two not even spending 20 games there. If you hit 1.0 here, you’re money, but if you slip (a.k.a. Dallas McPherson), you can still be Mike Lowell.

    So, let’s apply this knowledge to the aforementioned prospects, Francoeur and Guzman. Francoeur has never had a BB/K of over .500, and his high-A ratio would be the worst of the group of 34 players. While this is definitely perceived by bad by me, I still think that he can follow the paths of Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds or Moises Alou. The latter is the most applicable, because their K/AB ratios matched up quite favorably. Jeff has a bit more power potential than Alou, but remember, despite good batting averages, Alou’s OBP topped .350 only one in his first five seasons.

    Guzman is far worse, sporting a 77/306 ratio over his minor league career. This season was the first where his performance matched his hype, and he still did not top a .350 OBP. I am probably less of a believer in Guzman than most people, which is the reason I find it ludicrous for him to change positions. He is showing power at a young age that Miguel Tejada did not, but I still consider Miggy to be Guzman’s ceiling. This is fairly high praise, but Tejada’s first two seasons were terrible. This is somewhat how I expect Guzman to be, reaching some great moments, despite a less than intriguing debut.

    That is all for today, but if you want to know how other prospects match up, drop it in the comments and I’ll tell ya. Fabian, I can tell you that both Carlos Lee and Scott Rolen are third basemen that drastically improved their plate discipline numbers when going from low-A to high-A. High praise for Eric Duncan…

    WTNYOctober 28, 2004
    Important Misses
    By Bryan Smith

    Over the last few days, my narrow-focused articles have forced me to skip over a few big minor league topics. Today I want to run through those issues, even if not putting out a lengthy article. Enjoy, and please feel free to bounce around your minor league thoughts in my comments. Anything, questions to me, questions to fellow readers. Let’s get a mL community here!

    WTNY

    Jason Kubel provided plenty of headlines this year, going from a average FSL outfielder, to a minor league superstar, to a player in the American League Division Series. Since his regular season ended, Kubel provided us with one more, along the tune of “Kubel Likely Out for Most of 2005”. Torn ACL. Not exactly what Terry Ryan had in mind.

    In order to get Kubel some more at-bats, the Twins opted to send their star prospect to the Arizona Fall League. My guess is the team had in mind what I did: to get Kubel prepared enough to replace Jacque Jones. While Jones is not a free agent, there is no question that his trade could help replace the potential hole Brad Radke could leave.

    Despite Kubel’s injury, the Twins can still trade Jones. This would mean the team uses an outfield of Stewart-Hunter-Ford, and insert Matt LeCroy and/or Joe Mauer in the DH spot. I would recommend this, but there is no question that Terry Ryan wanted his player to bring home the 2005 Rookie of the Year. I mean, this is a guy that Peter Gammons reported was untradeable by June.

    I would be remiss to not answer the question, “What does this injury do to effect Kubel’s prospect status?” A lot, but maybe not as much as expected. Being a Cubs fan, I saw Corey Patterson tear his ACL running down the line in early July of 2003. Working extremely hard, Patterson was back to baseball-shape by February. Seven months. Kubel’s injury was a little more extensive, and should be out 9-10 months, with a possibility of the Twins being safe, and waiting for the knee to completely heal.

    So, he’s not gone from prospect lists. This probably drops him out of the top-five outfield prospects, a list where he recently was second or third (Delmon, Francoeur). Does it drop him from the top ten? I don’t know, I’ll leave that for another day…

    WTNY

    Another story I missed, but my friend Rich Lederer backed me up on, was the Tigers signing of Justin Verlander. I missed the Tigers conference call on the signing by about sixty minutes, where the team credited Verlander’s father for getting negotiations rolling again. This is because only a week before, the Tigers had made the difficult decision to send their second-overall choice back to the Old Dominion.

    While I am hardly a draft expert, I was not a big fan of the Tigers choice of Verlander. But what most interests me about this signing, is how it should get the ball rolling on the other first-round unsigned players: Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew. I have deliberately left off Wade Townsend, who has now been labeled ineligible to sign with the Orioles.

    To quote Baseball America, “…[Verlander] received a $3.12 million bonus in the deal that is worth a guaranteed $4.5 million with a maximum value of $5.6 million.” This is right around what the Mets should be looking to sign Philip Humber, who will likely want $500,000-1M more in each number. This should help speed along that process. But as for Weaver and Drew, it might just take a little while. I think both are going to get done, but we might have to way until lonely February, or something of the sort.

    WTNY

    In the injury news department, we have Mike Jones out all of next year and Carlos Quentin and Jeff Baker are done in the AFL. Greg Miller and Kris Honel are making strides, and both should be ready by next April. All these come courtesy of Jay-Dell Mah of the Scoresheet Rookie Reports, the best minor league news blog/source out there.

    You have to feel for Doug Melvin, who had a real rough year with the Brewers. First, Hardy is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Then, Dave Krynzel breaks a leg. Jones is playing off and on, as is Manny Parra. Throw in struggles by Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder...yikes. This is still a very good organization, but may have fallen from the top ten with as disastrous a year as one can imagine.

    Quentin has a back strain, so I’m not worried, since it’s not related to the Tommy John surgery he had out of college. Baker has a wrist injury, which tends to linger and drastically affect batting numbers. That will effect him in my next rankings, for sure. Miller and Honel are damn good prospects, and their returns would be huge for their respective organizations. At this point, I don’t know who I like more, Logan White or Grady Fuson.

    WTNY

    Quick check in on the AFL, which I have been ignoring a bit here. This isn’t deliberate, and hopefully I’ll give you more in the weeks to come.

    The AFL has been dominated by five hitters: Mark Teahen, Chris Shelton, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Howard and Tommy Whiteman. Both Teahen and Shelton have shots at big league jobs next year, and are doing nothing but further convincing their AL Central franchises. Weeks is making his season look like an aberration, and making a case to be a top prospect again. Howard is hitting with huge power- shocking, I know- while learning the art of left field. Whiteman is an Astros’ shortstop prospect that could form a double-play combination with Burke if his success continues.

    As for pitching, the big name in Arizona has been Huston Street. Oakland has found its closer next year, whether they bring Octavio Dotel back or not. Street just succeeds at every level of competition, and seems to have the bulldog attitude necessary for a good reliever. Mix Jairo Garcia and Street, and the A’s could turn games into 7 innings. I also have to mention Dustin Moseley, who not only is leading the league in ERA, but also has only allowed 3 hits in 12 innings. The Reds need all the help they can get.

    WTNY

    Baseball America has released a full-list of minor league free agents. I need a few more days to peruse the list to see if I can find any worthy acquisitions, but if you beat me to it, drop it in the comments.

    And lastly, congrats to the Boston Red Sox, and all their fans. You deserve it. Now bring on the Hot Stove League already!

    WTNYOctober 27, 2004
    My New York State of Mind
    By Bryan Smith

    In part two of fulfilling readers’ suggestions, I will be profiling the Yankees minor league system. One of my readers, James, asked, “I'd also like to see the Yanks to see if the system is as dead as the NY papers are making it.” Now I have no real evidence of this, avoiding the New York newspapers and all, but let’s assume the media is quite pessimistic. If any of you have examples of this, drop it in my comments.

    To help me with this project, I asked Fabian- loyal reader and writer of Minor Yankee Blog- to give me his bit on a bunch of prospects. Look for his comments incorporated throughout today’s article. If you are a Yankees fan, or just a fan of minor league baseball, I highly recommend his site.

    In my preseason top fifty, Dioner Navarro was the lone Yankee, reflecting the sad state the Yankee system had become. In fact, no other Yankee even made my extended top 90, which indicates the futility Brian Cashman had let the system become. Notice the past tense, that will come in play later.

    Consider this, from 1997-2002, the Yankees had seven first-round picks they signed. The best, not including the unsigned Mark Prior, is Bronson Sardinha. This is a third basemen that had an ISO near .100 during the season, split between the Florida State League and Eastern League. “I've really soured on him. He doesn't hit enough, in my opinion, to be a viable LF, RF, 1B, and doesn't play defense well enough to be a viable 3B, SS, 3B, CF,” says Fabian. And this, is the best.

    He is the best, because two of them (Ty Godwin, John Ford-Griffin) were traded out of the franchise, three (Ryan Bradley, Andy Brown, David Walling) have no Major League promise, and one (David Parrish) was called up simply as an emergency catcher. While his last name will keep him in the minors awhile, he stinks. Drafting like this is not acceptable, and the Yankees should be focusing on landing bigger names.

    But when the 2003 draft came around, the New York Yankees hit jackpot. After their long draft drought, the Yankees selection of nearby product Eric Duncan has turned successful. If I was picky, I might mention a season average of .258 or his 131 strikeouts. “He strikes out more than I'd like, but that's the only fault I can find,” says Fabian. He has outstanding raw power according to most scouting reports and has been able to translate that into great game power at a young age.”

    Not only is this power apparent in scouting reports, but also in the fact that his ISO was well over .200 in the pitching-friendly Midwest and Florida State Leagues. And that, at just the age of nineteen, makes me forget his negative points. And in response to his work ethic, Fabian writes, “his defense went from "no way he's sticking at 3B" at the time of his drafting to "he could stick at 3B" and his receiving of votes for MWL best defensive 3B this year.” Sticking at third though, ain’t gonna happen.

    One other good thing came from the 2003 draft, and it was all the way down in the ninth round. A lanky right-hander from a Kentucky high school, Tyler Clippard appeared to be a pitcher who could do everything…OK. “BA keeps harping on his lack of a dominant out pitch, but early in the season opponents would say, courtesy of local newspapers, that his curveball was much better than any they could handle at their current level, which coincides with what was in the '04 prospect handbook. In addition, his change has been coming along this season and his fastball is picking up velocity.” Well, he went from doing everything OK, to doing everything well pretty fast.

    I don’t like the fact that in 149 innings, Clippard allowed 153 hits and 12 home runs. This was the Midwest League, and opposing batters are only going to get harder. But, I do like his K/BB ratio of 145/32, and Kevin Goldstein gave him a positive comment. There is no question that his pitches must further improve, because my guess is the right-hander has the tendency to hang his curveball. But this appears to be a very good ninth-round pick, and Clippard is definitely someone to keep an eye on.

    But, Yankee fans would laugh at me if I evaluated their system by their drafts. George Steinbrenner has more money than anyone else, and this is seen not only on the Major League free agent market, but the scouting department is well. Plain and simple, no other big league club has an influence outside of this country like the Yankees. The majority of Yankee prospects come not through the draft, but from overseas prospects.

    The best of which, as I mentioned, is Dioner Navarro. Yankee fans seem to still be up on Navarro, as seen by Fabian’s comments, “Had a disappointing year statistically, but I think it's worth noting that his struggles were pretty much isolated around the time of major trade talks so it might be worthwhile to analyze his monthly splits.” Just how disappointing a year statistically? After closing out the 2003 season with a .341/.388/.471 line in 208 Eastern League at-bats, Navarro hit .271/.354/.369 this year, before a .676 OPS in the International League.

    Pardon me for not buying the ‘trade-talk’ excuse, because that speaks down to a player’s mental strength. Navarro’s 2003 seems, in retrospect, to be a bit of an aberration. Calling him “Pudgito” is insane. This isn’t to say this kid can’t be a Major League catcher, he’s just not worthy of the rankings he saw before the season. To me, and sorry Yankee fans, I see a Toby Hall type. Trade him…now.

    Next on a lot of lists, and the topic of much debate between Fabian and me, is Robinson Cano. And while I never believed much in Cano, who had topped a .750 OPS only once before this season, I am slowly coming around. While many of the Yankee prospects struggled in the pitcher-friendly Trenton stadium, Cano torched it for a .853 OPS before getting a promotion to AAA. He seemed to be back to his old self in the IL, with a .719 OPS in 216 at-bats.

    Pardon me, but I don’t think there is much to Cano’s future besides a peak of a .800 OPS, with most seasons in the low-.700s. This is, of course, where Fabian would break in. “He fell off after a promotion to AAA, but the only real
    change was in his doubles/triples rate as his homer rate actually spiked and his BB/K numbers remained exactly the same, which is encouraging.” This is a fair point, but I don’t think the Yankees should hang their hats on Cano at second base. Let me see what he does next year, and maybe he could take over there at some point.

    But don’t get me wrong, Fabian and I do not disagree on every issue, hardly. Melky Cabrera, for instance, is where we share a common ground. “…The power is coming and he seems to be at least solid defender. I wouldn't say he's Bernie Williams, but I'm beginning to warm up to the Mark Kotsay comp I have seen in BA, the good ('04) Kotsay is a great ceiling to have.” I have said Bernie Williams before, which is more an indication in how highly I think of Cabrera than an actual prediction. I wrote about him in this article, and don’t want to beat a dead horse, but he’s good.

    Two more overseas prospects that spoke volumes with their play were Abel Gomez and Erold Andrus. After a solid debut last season, Gomez continued to progress in 2004 in the Midwest League. His peripheral HR/9, H/9 and K/9 numbers are better than those of Clippard, but a 4.61 BB/9 needs improving. Back to Fabian, “…Throws in the low 90s. His changeup is reportedly pretty good too, but he needs to work on a breaking ball. In addition, he also lacks control.”

    As for Andrus, it wasn’t batting average that got him a contract with the Yankees. But that, and pretty much only that, is what he’s given the organization. But, there is hope for more, as scouts think that Andrus has a huge power bat. Unfortunately, comes this from Fabian, “The latest news on him is that he is being converted to 1B
    to take advantage of his power potential and diminishing speed.” Moving him now, with his career SLG at just .411, is a bit premature to me. Stock going down.

    To close out the Caribbean players, I want to touch on two very disappointing players: Rudy Guillen and Ramon Ramirez. Guillen seems to be a BA fav, largely due to the great tools he had when he signed. He is about to turn 21, and has three seasons in a row with a declining OPS. The real problem, is that the OPS started at .748. Don’t tell all this to Fabian:


    A lot people have soured on him, but I'm willing to give him some benefit of the doubt. He was hitting for average and not much else to start the season and then he suffered a somewhat serious knee injury that kept him out much of the summer. When he came back, the power increased slightly (I haven't looked at the numbers so I may be wrong), and the plate discipline also seemed to tick upwards while the BA plummeted. I think he could have a big '05.

    Finally, let’s touch on Ramirez. This kid has a great arm, just has not figured out how to use it. To Fabian:

    He has problems with the longball and there have been some durability concerns raised due to his diminutive stature. That said, he strikes out a ton of guys and I think the Yankees should convert him into the bullpen and have themselves a shutdown reliever in the making. His control is also usually pretty good. He might be able to pull a Brazoban for the Yankees in '05 if they are willing to try it with him.

    His home run ratio, which Fabian recognizes, is what might prevent him from being a good reliever. Remember, Brazoban allowed ten home runs in 127 minor league innings. Ramirez allowed more this year, though Juan Cruz has proved you can succeed in relief despite a high H/9. I love the K/9 on this kid, though I don’t think he could reach the Yankees next year. Put him in relief, send him to AA.

    This could be the end of the road, but it isn’t. I want to deal with two other prospects that didn’t fit in the 2003 draft or overseas prospects categories. Matt DeSalvo is one of the few types that went to college, but was not eligible to be drafted. His numbers, they speak for themselves: 1.43 ERA in 13 high-A starts. Four homers allowed in more than 100 innings. To my boy:


    Yes, he's really old for a top prospect. Yes, he's small for a top RHP prospect. Still, this is a guy who has dominated at pretty much every level he's ever been at: college, SS, A-, A+. The only one where he failed was at AA this year and that was because he tried to pitch through a back injury and was not able to do it as he lost all command of the strike zone. In addition, it's not as if he's working with smoke and mirrors either, he has at least solid stuff with a low 90s fastball, and good curve and change. I really like DeSalvo and think that he has a shot at being in the majors by the end of '05 provided that he is fully recovered from his back injury.

    I agree with Fabian here. You show me you healed from your injury Mr. DeSalvo, and I’ll forget that you’ll be in your age 24 year next season.

    Lastly, is the one good piece of the 2002 draft: eighth-round pick Brad Halsey. Chosen out of Texas, the small Halsey moved relatively fast through the system, even getting some spot starts in New York. To me, Halsey is the southpaw version of David Bush, who had a good year with the Toronto Blue Jays. Halsey has allowed just 15 home runs in 375 innings, and has the makeup to succeed. While Fabian thinks this guy should be in the Yankees 2005 rotation, I’m not sure he fits in New York. But I know if I was a GM in another organization, I would have Halsey circled.

    So, that’s it. Like usual, the Yankees have a lot of hyped prospects that aren’t real. They also have one real prospect (Duncan), and a few more (Cabrera, Clippard, Gomez, Halsey, Cano) that I believe can be solid prospects. The system is hardly not a good one yet, but it’s headed in the right direction.

    WTNYOctober 26, 2004
    Sun in Tampa
    By Bryan Smith

    After asking you- my loyal readers- for some article topics, I have a full schedule in the coming weeks. I will touch on many of the topics, the Yankees, the A’s, an article on the game’s better starters. But the idea I found most intriguing came from Jeff, who asked, “How good can [Tampa Bay] become?”

    While I often write overview review of systems, or comment on individual players, I don’t recall profiling an organization’s future in depth. To do so, we’ll go position-by-position, and detail what lies down the road with the Devil Rays.

    Before moving on, I should say that the Devil Rays are going to need a GM with more foresight than Chuck Lamar has to offer. Think someone with great focus on the farm system, someone along the lines of Frank Wren, Logan White, or best of all, Grady Fuson. And while I’m not the right person to speak on Lou Piniella’s credibility, I’m not sure he’s the right guy either. If there were only more Eric Wedges…

    And before I start, let my think raysbaseball.com, without which very little of this article could have been produced…

    Catcher: The more and more Toby Hall plays, the more and more he convinces me that he would be one good back-up catcher. This is a guy I loved coming out of the minors, but just has not produced thus far in the Major Leagues. I say this because in the last three seasons, Hall’s line has been very close to .255/.295/.375, a far cry from the .768 OPS in forty-nine 2001 games. But his catching abilities have improved since then, and while his 34.3 CS% is the lowest in three years, it is good for a back-up catcher.

    Problem is, the Devil Rays have no real catching prospect that could take Hall’s reins. It looked as if Pete LaForest could be that guy, but bad defense and terrible offense this year have extinguished that belief. Both Brett Cordell and Shawn Riggans played well in the hitter-friendly Bakersfield this year, but neither is close to supplanting Hall. Hall, just turned 29, should be producing the same offense and defense until reaching free agency after the 2007 season.

    First Base: Tino Martinez played the position surprisingly well in 2004, and despite his rumored love-connection with Piniella, should be gone next season. Aubrey Huff played the position in about 80 games this season, but his atrocious defense is better suited for the DH spot. Not only do the Devil Rays need a first basemen for 2005, but all the way until Wes Bankston is ready.

    When will that be? Well after a fabulous debut in 2002, Bankston struggled in the South Atlantic League in 2003. The Devil Rays sent him back there this season, where he put together a .289/.390/.513 season and reinstated his future in this franchise. Also, the Devil Rays should consider moving Josh Hamilton to first when he returns, giving Bankston at least one competitor. No matter what, the ETA for either player is no earlier than 2007, where both should progress relatively slowly.

    Second Base: This is where the infield debate begins. Should the Devil Rays keep Julio Lugo at shortstop, and move 20-year-old B.J. Upton to the hot corner? Should they move Lugo to second, keep Upton at short, and move Cantu to third? Should they sign someone other than Cantu for third? Is this debate for naught, because Sweet Lou has already made up his mind? I’ll say True to the final, because it seems as if the infield next year will have Upton at third. So, we might as well treat the future as having that scenario as well.

    Jorge Cantu is going to be here awhile, though his effectiveness in the Majors I will question. Can someone who was that bad in the minors from 2001-2003 be this good? Maybe, and the Devil Rays will be happy to give Cantu the opportunity. If not, there are not a whole lot of possible successors, with Rays Baseball listing Elliot Johnson (he of the .709 2004 OPS) as the club’s top 2B prospect. Expect Cantu here for much of the next 5 years, barring the acquisition of a veteran.

    Shortstop: Julio Lugo has gone from being arrested in Houston, to being one of Lou’s favorite players in Tampa. Lou is going to be hard-pressed to give Lugo up, which really isn’t that bad. This is a guy that after next season, could probably be signed to a deal like three years, $12 million. Sort of a lot for a team on a short budget, but remember, what Lou wants, Lou is going to get. Especially with that Met job still unfilled.

    One interesting tidbit on Lugo is that he had an .859 OPS in 195 plate appearances in the two-spot, but just .699 in 257 appearances while batting sixth. Batting behind Crawford, Lugo can be an effective tool, and I think Upton fits best in the sixth spot anyway.

    Third Base: B.J. Upton, lock and load. He’s going to be here, and he’s going to be here for awhile. The long-term contract they discussed earlier this year is not going to happen, and Upton will be a free agent after the 2010 season. By that time, the team will likely need to decide on B.J. or Delmon, one of whom must become the face of this franchise.

    Designated Hitter: Aubrey Huff was signed through his arbitration, which is exactly the type of deal that I support. He is signed through the 2006 season, by which he will be done with his twenties. Reader ZTigerX at his blog argues that Huff should not be re-signed after that, using logic that convinced me. So Huff’s role will basically be to keep this team in legitimacy for awhile, before leaving and watching the team improve. His DH successor should become a little more apparent when reading through the depth the Rays have in the outfield, or the loser of the Bankston/Hamilton 1B battle.

    Left Field: I’m not going to preach to the choir, Carl Crawford needs to walk more. If Devil Ray coaches are not preaching this to their talented leadoff hitter, they should all be fired. Crawford is a very good player, with the potential to be more. As he enters arbitration, the Devil Rays should sign him through arbitration years, similar to the deal the Blue Jays gave Vernon Wells. When he hits free agency after 2008, the D-Rays will probably have to decide on him or Baldelli.

    Center Field: Rocco Baldelli offers more of the same, with a lot more power potential than Crawford. He’s not the player everyone thought a year and a half ago, but he’s probably better than I normally give him credit for. With the huge number of outfield prospects in this system, most of whom can play center, I think Tampa should trade Baldelli before they have to start paying him big arbitration dollars. He’ll hit arbitration after next season, and start making big dollars after the 2006 season. In one of those years, he should go.

    Right Field: Jose Cruz Jr. was a good signing for this organization, and signing more players like him on short deals would be a good move. But, if he thinks of himself as more than a placeholder, he’s greatly confused. Delmon Young has this job the second he’s ready, which should be Opening Day 2006. In Albert Belle’s first full Major League season, he hit .282/.323/.540, and Delmon is very capable of that his rookie season.

    Outfield Replacements: The first and most ready is Joey Gathright, who could probably be ready by midseason 2005. But, what he will produce in the Majors, isn’t much. If you average his AA and AAA numbers, Gathright hit about .330/.390/.380 this season, and both the batting average and on-base percentage will drop in the Majors.

    Next is Elijah Dukes, who I wrote about in this article. Dukes is immensely talented, and the most eligible of these three players for the centerfield spot. He played well in Bakersfield this year, and would be best suited to be the Opening Day starter in 2007, after Delmon Young has already established himself. While he must show more power, Dukes does have 25-25 potential.

    Finally, the least advanced is Jason Pridie. While older than Dukes, like Bankston, Pridie spent his second season in the South Atlantic League. And again, like Wes, things improved the second time around. But a kid who can’t top an .800 OPS the second time around, while also posting a BB/K of 37/114. I think Pridie is drastically overrated, and WAY behind Dukes and even Gathright in prospect rankings.

    Some are going to say Matt Diaz or Jonny Gomes here, but I don’t think these players have much of a future with this organization. Bench spots maybe, but I’m not as much of a buyer here as a lot of guys.

    Offensive Recap: I have 2009 circled. B.J. Upton will be a free agent after 2010, but Young and Dukes won’t hit the Majors until ’06 and ’07 respectively. While we don’t know who will be at catcher or even short in 2009, I really like the start of Bankston, Cantu, Upton, Crawford, Dukes, Young, and Josh Hamilton.

    Starters: This is where things start to get uglier, but not as bad as I expected. By the end of the season, the D-Rays had a pretty established rotation of Mark Hendrickson, Rob Bell, Dewon Brazelton, Jorge Sosa and Scott Kazmir. All five should be back next year, which isn’t the most exciting proposition to D-Rays fans. This fivesome had a 4.89 ERA in 480.1 2004 innings, which isn’t as bad as it could be. What is terrible, is the group’s 5.13 K/9, with the first three I mentioned posting a combined K/9 of just 4.37. Yikes.

    As for their free agencies, Bell and Sosa will hit the market after the 2007 season, Hendickson after 2008, Brazelton after 2009, and Scott Kazmir won’t be a free agent until post-2010. I should say, that I believe the worst two of the bunch are Bell and Hendrickson, who will be out of the rotation and non-tendered before if opportunities present themselves. I like Sosa, Brazelton and Kazmir, though I doubt Sosa will be around after 2007. So really, only Brazelton and Kazmir are the mainstays here.

    So who can replace the other three? Well, the first name I should mention is Jeff Niemann, the Devil Rays’ 2004 first-round draft choice. Niemann remains unsigned, but there is no question that this signing (more on that at a later date) should begin a domino effect among the first-rounders. But believe me, Niemann can use all the time off that the Devil Rays will give him. If he returns to his Sophomore form, Niemann has ace-caliber stuff, and should be ready in 2007. It’s impossible to project his career quite yet.

    After Niemann, the next best name is Jason Hammel. He’s always had solid HR/9 numbers, and his K/9 saw a rice in 2004. The tall, recently-turned 22-year-old, throws pretty hard, and improved both his control and secondary stuff this year. Hammel’s ERA was below 2.00 in the hitter-friendly California League, and he should be in the Southern League next season. I like his numbers, and Hammel could be ready in 2006, likely causing Bell’s exit.

    Joining Hammel in AA will be Chris Seddon, who will be repeating the level. After an amazing seven starts in high-A, Seddon hit a wall in AA, though he improved as the season went on. A Montgomery season-ticket holder gave me a great description of Seddon, which I posted back in July. Overall, it said that Seddon is lanky, throws in the high-80s, with solid secondary pitches. The club may challenge him with a promotion to the International League, and either way, he could be in the rotation by mid-2005.

    So, ideally, the Devil Rays will open the 2007 season with a rotation of Kazmir, Niemann, Brazelton, Hammel and Seddon. Bell and Hendrickson will likely both be non-tendered in a year, and Jorge Sosa will be traded before making big arbitration dollars. This rotation should be well-established by 2009, the Devil Rays’ season.

    Due to the impossibility of projecting the future of a bullpen, I won’t get into that. But I should highlight Chad Orvella, who went a few weeks without allowing a hit. Orvella has great control, a trait that is never the first strength associated with closers. There is a possibility that Kazmir will come in and take the closer’s job, but you have to believe in Orvella, who has a career 11.9 K/BB rate.

    As I’ve said, 2009 is the Devil Rays year. Everyone will be established then, with few players making huge dollars. Hopefully, Crawford will be re-signed with the team until 2010, when the team will need all their resources possible to make decisions on Upton v. Young and Scott Kazmir. This team has the makings, to me, of 90 wins. But, that will take a lot of things to bounce right, and I’ll probably be hurt from these same comments.

    Will 90 wins ever win the AL East? If anything, I think 2006 and 2007 will be the times to hit the Yankees, as Steinbrenner already has $143M and $84.45M committed respectively. But if these players are developed correctly, an art the Devil Rays appear to be learning, this team could compete with any Yankee team.

    That’s all for today, and I’ll be back tomorrow with comments on the Yankees, Justin Verlander, Jason Kubel and more…

    WTNYOctober 25, 2004
    'Tall' Cup of Coffee
    By Bryan Smith

    A couple months ago, I moved this site to ‘prospect-only’, which is not to say my interest in Major League Baseball has evaporated. Particularly, my interest in Hot Stove baseball still is extremely strong. So while I don’t have a lot of time to write an article today, I want to point to a few things on the Internet.

    Being an avid reader of Chicago newspapers, it was refreshing to see a great offseason preview like the Daily Southtown did with the Chicago White Sox. An honest and telling series, the Southtown has three articles (infield, outfield, pitching staff) on the White Sox coming months. Each article goes over the players on the White Sox roster, and offers quotes from Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams, as well as the writer’s prediction on the player’s future.

    From this article, we learn that the White Sox plan on signing a shortstop, a good starting pitcher and a good reliever. Randy Johnson and Carlos Beltran are the club’s top two targets, and either’s acquisition would lead to the trade of Carlos Lee. After that, the club appears to be in hot pursuit of Omar Vizquel, looking to steal him from the rival Indians. They also want Troy Percival, who would supplant Shingo Takatsu in the bullpen.

    As for the starting rotation, it is a lock that Chicago will sign one of “Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, Odalis Perez, Eric Milton, Wilson Alvarez, Russ Ortiz and Derek Lowe.” Judging by Ken Williams previous interest, I would say that Milton, Ortiz and Perez are the three likely targets. We see a 2005 roster that includes:

    Catchers (2): Ben Davis and Jamie Burke

    Infielders (8): Paul Konerko, Willie Harris, Juan Uribe, SS signee, Joe Crede, Frank Thomas, Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez

    Outfielders (4): Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, Carl Everett, Timo Perez

    Starters (5): Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, SP signee, Jon Garland

    Bullpen (6): Shingo Takatsu, RP signee, Damaso Marte, Cliff Politte, Neal Cotts, Jon Adkins

    Going into the offseason with three needs? Wouldn’t it be nice?

    Today’s article has to be really short, because I spent a lot of time today working on a Game 2 chat us All-Baseballers had last night. Let today be somewhat of an open forum…what prospect/organization/issue do you want to see profiled?

    WTNYOctober 22, 2004
    Building In the Desert
    By Bryan Smith

    I'll concede, even after this week, that Mariano Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher of all-time. Hopefully this week will not damage this reputation, despite his two blown saves in one of the most important series in his life. But my prediction is that despite these high-profile meltdowns, Rivera will stay recognized as the clear #1.

    Why? History tells me so. There was another instance in recent history, when Rivera failed with everything on the line. When against another left-handed hitter, a little smaller build than David Ortiz, hit another ball up the middle to win a game. Luis Gonzalez fought off he best pitch in baseball narrowly over Derek Jeter's head, to make the Arizona Diamondbacks one of the best expansion franchises of all-time.

    Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Only three years since upsetting the Yankees, the Diamondbacks became the worst team in baseball. First, to worst. Blame it on Jerry Colangelo's early preference for deferring contracts, or Joe Garagiola's terrible handling of Curt Schilling/Richie Sexson. Blame it on age, blame it on injury. But whoever is assigned the blame, the fact remains that Arizona is in a bad state.

    Deferred contracts will keep Garagiola's spending at a minimum in the next 2-3 years, and possibly force him to trade his best asset: Randy Johnson. But there is a way for Arizona to get back on the saddle and become good again. And the answer lies within their farm system, which through a push towards collegiate players, has become one of the best in the game.

    Before diving into the minor leagues, let's look at the youth in the Majors. The most prominent young Diamondback is Brandon Webb, famous in the sabermetric world as the pitcher that should have dethroned Dontrelle Willis. With Curt Schilling's trade last offseason, Garagiola was in effect leaving the 25-year-old Webb as the team's #2 starter. Things went fine in April, before a disastrous 0-4, 6.55 ERA in 6 May starts. Despite his 7-16 record, Webb finished the season well, with a 3.33 second half ERA. The problem? Walks. 119 in 208 innings is simply unacceptable.

    Pardon the D-Backs for being excited about their youth in the bullpen, first with Jose Valverde, Oscar Villareal and Brandon Lyon, and later with Brian Bruney and Greg Aquino. The former three with huge disappointments, as Lyon failed to make an appearance, and neither Valverde nor Villareal topped the 30 appearances mark. Bruney was solid in 30 appearances, though 27 walks in 31.1 innings is not acceptable. Aquino was great, leaving some to wonder what the Hell had happened in AAA before, where his ERA had topped 6.00.

    The rotation saw some disastrous performances from the likes of Casey Fossum, Edgar Gonzalez and Andrew Good this season. This group combined was 5-26, mostly thanks to Fossum's 15 losses. Mike Gosling was decent towards the end of the season, and in this organization, decent is enough to get you a second chance. He's a mediocre pitcher, somewhat reminiscent of Jim Parque, the old Chicago White Sox southpaw.

    Let's move to the defense behind the pitcher, which saw some the same lack of advances in the youth department. Shea Hillenbrend kept pretending he was decent, while Chad Tracy hit .285 in more than 400 at-bats. Scott Hairston had an ISO of .194 in his rookie season, though he must start making better contact. After those two...nothing.

    Luis Terrero: .245. Robby Hammock: .241. Juan Brito: .205. Matt Kata: .247. Josh Kroeger: .167. There are more, I just felt like sparing you. This is a team that needs a complete overhaul in the coaching department, and needs to find the next Mike Maddux and Eddie Murray.

    Down in the minors, things aren't half as grim. The season started with the aforementioned Josh Kroeger as the star, where he hit .331/.393/.588 before doing more of the same in the Pacific Coast League. Up to take his spot were Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin, fresh off their domination of the California League. It was Quentin that played better, hitting .357/.443/.533 in 210 at-bats. Remember, his OBP is quite dependent on HBP, of which he took a record number this season. But still, Quentin, Jackson and Kroeger profile as a sensational outfield, and give reason for the D-Backs to trade Luis Gonzalez.

    But it wasn't only outfielders in the Texas League, because Sergio Santos saw them all. A growing 20-year-old shortstop, Santos was extremely young for the TL, but kept afloat with the advanced pitching. He hit .282/.332/.461 for the season, showing good contact and power skills, with plate discipline being his obvious flaw. Some are also concerned for his defense, because he made 24 errors in just 87 games at shortstop.

    In fact, some say conern over Santos' future position led to the Diamondbacks first round selection of Stephen Drew, commonly referred to as the best college hitter in the country out of FSU. Brother of Tim and J.D., Stephen shows athleticism that bests both brothers, while a stick that has drawn comparisons to both Rickie Weeks and Mark Teixeira. He remains unsigned, though Baseball America has recently reported the sides are zeroing in on an agreement. But, scouts also don't believe Drew will stick at shortstop, saying second base or centerfield are better spots for him.

    If they move Santos and Drew, who's the next shortstop? How about Justin Upton, the consensus best player of the 2005 draft? I've always been one to say that I think Arizona plans on leaving Santos at shortstop, and will not spend the money on Upton come next June. Instead, I think the team will stay conservative, choosing one of the better collegiate hitters in the country. Upton should drop to the Mariners, who will proudly spend $8M on another shortstop prospect.

    There isn't a lot of pitching in the Diamondback system, or at least seen through statistics, as the D-Backs' affiliates all have hitter's parks. Two with a lot of clout are Dustin Nippert and Bill Murphy, the latter of which was acquired in a deadline deal for Steve Finley. Nippert is a tall right-hander with big stuff, though his H/9 was over 9.00 in the Texas League. Murphy fell apart out of the Southern League, and is a prospect I've always felt is greatly overrated. But the Diamondbacks glut in the outfield, as well as potential trade victim Randy Johnson, could potentially add a lot of young pitching to this organization.

    TO end today, here are the Diamondbacks ten best prospects, without Stephen Drew: Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Sergio Santos, Josh Kroeger, Dustin Nippert, Chris Snyder (C Prospect), Bill Murphy, Jon Zeringue (OF prospect), Enrique Gonzalez (high-A pitcher), Koyie Hill (C prospect).

    WTNYOctober 20, 2004
    Winter for More
    By Bryan Smith

    Writing the past two articles about Cubs prospects playing winter ball sparked an interest in the Arizona Fall League. Today’s entry won’t be an update of the best prospects, or a couple neat stories from the games there. Instead, I’m going to look at the players there, and try to find out why. It was impossible to do all 30 tonight, so I focused on just ¼ of the teams. Hopefully, at some point, I’ll hammer out the other 75%.

    Atlanta Braves

    After writing my first article previewing the AFL in August, Braves’ minor league expert Brad Dowdy posted the following in my comments:


    The Braves tend not to send their top flight pitching prospects to the AFL, but rather guys they want to see step it up a notch after a mediocre year. Last year it was Brett Evert, Alec Zumwalt, and Kevin Barry…

    This is true, as the Braves decided against sending Capellan, Meyer, Davies, Lerew, Stevens, and James. The pitchers that are in Arizona follow a theme: if not put on the 40-man roster, each is available for the Rule 5 draft. From a talent standpoint, no loss would hurt the system more than Macay McBride, the Braves version of Andy Sisco (talent, not results). McBride must show in Arizona he’s worth protecting, and in the end, I believe they will.

    Matt Coenen and Zach Miner, however, are not promised the same fate. Coenen’s year in AA was neither sensational or disappointing, and his value to the organization is in question. There is a chance that Coenen could be drafted if left unprotected, a risk I believe the Braves will be willing to take (see Zumwalt, Hernandez). Miner is like McBride in the sense that his results were ghastly in 2004, but he doesn’t quite have the talent McBride has. To keep the Cubs analogies going, think of Miner as the Braves’ Chadd Blasko.

    Atlanta sent five hitters to the AFL, but the reasons for each follows one of two trends. Scott Thorman and Tony Pena Jr. already hold spots on the 40-man roster, but Atlanta is questioning whether to keep it that way. Pena is fantastic on defense, but cannot handle the stick. Think of him as a poor man’s Hector Luna, the Rule 5 pick that lasted the entire season with the Cardinals. Thorman’s power numbers slipped heavily in 2004, a year in which proving his worth over James Jurries was essential. Expect Jurries to win the battle. Aaron Herr is not on the 40-man, but his spot in the AFL is simply to help the Braves decision to keep it that way.

    Finally, we have Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann. These represent two of the Braves three best hitting prospects, an honor considering the great state of this system. Both add star power to the Grand Canyon Rafters. Atlanta has sent them there to help their projected ETAs, which likely read 2006 for Francoeur, and mid-2006 for McCann.

    San Francisco Giants

    More of the same from the Giants, who have brought some prospects, and some auditioning for the Rule 5. Their stars, while not quite as valid a word, consist of David Aardsma and Fred Lewis. The former is a former Rice closer that after being a 2003 first-round pick, pitched in the Major Leagues this season. With Robb Nen on the way out, the Giants will be looking for a closer next year. The AFL will help San Fran decide if Aardsma is their man. A similar situation is present with Lance Niekro, who is in Arizona to decide how the Giants attack the first base position this winter.

    Lewis, destined for the 40-man roster, had a good year in the California League before finishing in the Pacific Coast League. He just missed a mention in my discussion of the depth at the outfield position, and probably figures into the top 30 prospects at that position. Lewis’ power spike, highly dependent on triples, shouldn’t be expected to continue. But what the Giants are looking forward to is a leadoff-type hitter that hits for power, and takes a walk. Expect the Giants to be preaching for less strikeouts this winter as well.

    After those three, the Giants made an interesting decision sending Chris Begg and Mike Cervanek to winter league ball. Begg was signed into the Giants organization after a sensational 2003 with the St. Paul Saints, from the Independent Leagues. In 2004, Begg had a 9-1 record in the Eastern League, with a 2.30 ERA. His peripheral numbers, while not jaw-dropping, were solid. But in nine PCL starts, Begg was disastrous, with a 6.97 ERA and some of the worst peripheral numbers possible. Still fairly young, the Giants are just trying to discern how great a talent they have here.

    Cervanek is another Independent League signing, but one made by the New York Yankees. After a solid collegiate career with the University of Michigan, Cervanek had 2 great seasons with the Chillicothe Paints of the Independent League. His great numbers convinced New York brass, who sent him to the Eastern League in 2001 and 2002. After a release, San Francisco picked him up, where in 2003, he posted the same kind of .275/.330/.450 numbers that he had in his preceding AA seasons. But in 2004, Cervanek’s OPS hit .997, before earning a late season promotion to AAA. A third basemen, Cervenak appears to be the latest version of Byron Myrow.

    Finally we have Scott Munter, a reliever with solid ERAs, but a terrible K/9. He’s Rule 5 eligible, but has given the Giants no reason to put him on the 40-man roster. The AFL is his last, dying chance.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    For the Cardinals, almost all the focus is on the Rule V draft. Carmen Cali was fantastic in AA and AAA, before getting a September call-up with the Major League team. His name currently sits on the 40, with his AFL deciding whether he slots into the 2005 plans, is sent to AAA, or taken off the forty and surely selected in the Rule 5. Chris Duncan had a great season, but the Cardinals are likely questioning whether to put a 1B/OF on their 40. If not, he could be a left-handed Chris Shelton. John Nelson finally matched his hype with a great AA season, and would need a terrible AFL to stay off the Cardinal 40-man.

    The next three, I can’t explain as well. Gabe Johnson appears to have enough service time to be a minor league free agent this offseason, so in my opinion, is auditioning for a signing with the Cardinals. Reid Gorecki is Rule 5 eligible, but in Palm Beach, hardly had the kind of year to keep around. His draft status is fine, since no team would take this gamble. Finally, we have Andy Cavazos, whose reason for being here I can’t answer.

    Adam Wainwright was the last player selected to the team, who had a terrible year in the PCL after so much hype. The Cardinals are hoping to ignore Wainwright’s AAA numbers, a la Edwin Jackson, and his AFL will make that easier. Plus, he has to stay ahead of Brad Thompson and Anthony Reyes in the organizational depth chart.

    Chicago Cubs

    After two days of writing about it, I’ll quickly summarize. Sean Marshall and Jae-Kuk Ryu both suffered injuries at various points of the season, and are in the AFL for extra work. Brian Dopirak is the stud prospect looking to provide a timetable, and help prospect raters decide where he slots in. The other four (Greenberg, Soto, Cedeno, Rohlicek) are fighting for 40-man spots.

    Colorado Rockies

    In the high altitudes, we have battles of new prospects, and old prospects. Jeff Baker and Ryan Speier just had big years, and are in the AFL to get more work. Baker is a third basemen more Major League ready than Ian Stewart, with limited upside. Speier is a near-ready reliever, and probably one of the best five in the AFL. As for the old prospects, Jayson Nix had a disastrous year, and will likely be left off the 40-man roster. I doubt any team will gamble on him. As for Cory Sullivan, he’s an outfielder that missed all of 2004, and is in the AFL to help the Rockies decide on a level for him next season.

    The final two are pitchers: Zach McClellan and Zack Parker. The latter is Rule 5 eligible, but will stay that way after a disastrous season in the Texas League. Acquired from the Kansas City Royals in the offseason, McClellan is the most intriguing Rockie here. I like what I see from a Texas League pitcher: 4.15 ERA, K/BB over 3.00. But his 17 home runs in less than 140 innings are disgruntling, and McClellan has to improve that rate in the next month.

    San Diego Padres

    Before now, we’ve mentioned solid relievers in Aardsma, Cali, and Speier, but none had a better season than Brad Baker. Formerly a starting prospect with the Red Sox, his transition to relieving went flawlessly: ERA under 1.50, 34 saves, K/9 in double-digits. Again, the Padres are just deciding if he’ll be ready in 2005, or need one more year of seasoning. Josh Barfield, despite a disappointing year in the Southern League, is still a prospect, and like Rickie Weeks, was sent to the AFL for nothing more than confidence. He’s still projected to replace Mark Loretta.

    The next two prospects, Ben Johnson and Paul McAnulty are somewhere between question marks and prospects. The latter had a great year in the California League, but still needs to convince Padres’ brass that a 1B/OF like him should be retained. Johnson is more talent, an ex-Cardinal prospect, but has batting average issues. If his discipline and ISO can ever be put together with a .300 average, he’s a fine prospect.

    The last two, very well could factor into the much-talked about Rule 5. Chris Oxspring is currently protected, on the Padres 40-man roster, and probably would have to pitch very bad to leave that status. His time in AAA was cut a bit short by injury, and is also pitching for a spot on the 2005 Padre roster. On the other hand, Randall Spiehs is likely to stay unprotected. His numbers were very good in the Southern League, after good numbers in the San Francisco organization before that. I would take a flier on Spiehs, though I wish he struck out a few more men.

    Washington Insert-Name-Heres

    Bill Bray was the team’s first-round pick this past June, a player said to be very polished when they selected him. Drafting players and seeing results quickly is a luxury that must be afforded by a franchise like this. Seung Song is a prospect ready for the Majors, simply pitching in the AFL to get more work. Finally, more was expected from 2003 second-rounder Jerry Owens, an outfielder out to prove he’s better than his sub-.800 OPS suggested this year. Finally, I like Shawn Norris, a third basemen the Expos are hoping is not the second coming of Scott Hodges.

    Josh Labandeira is that kind of sub-.800 OPS hitter, but he’s a pretty solid defensive infielder. He’s probably closer to the Hector Luna/Jose Morban type than Tony Pena Jr., but that’s not to say the Expos should put him on the 40-man. This is the type of player an organization can afford to let go, even the type that will be banking on an unproven Izturis at shortstop next year. They also have a decision to make with Jay Bergmann, who pitched well in relief when being moved there in high-A. I am leaning towards no, but a solid AFL performance can change minds.

    That’s all for today folks, hope everyone will be watching the game of the year at seven tonight. And that’s not East Coast bias talking…

    WTNYOctober 19, 2004
    Cubs Winter (2 of 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, we looked at five Cubs’ minor leaguers vying for spots on the 40-man roster. This is just one of the many reasons players are sent to winter ball, the other primary reason being simply for more work. Today, we’ll look at five more Cubs players still playing, and look at their status as a prospect, and their future in Cubdom.

    Moises Alou, following one of the best seasons of his career, is a virtual lock to head to free agency. One might think with so many holes in the 2005 roster, the Cubs would take Jason Dubois to fill Alou’s hole. In 2004, Dubois hit .316/.389/.630 in the Pacific Coast League, right in line with his FSL line of .321/.422/.562. The problem is that Dubois has never played more than 130 games in a season, and walked less than ever in 2004.

    Dubois is currently playing in the Mexican League, probably to get more at-bats. Rumors of the Cubs’ interest in Carlos Beltran have heated up in recent weeks, increasing the likelihood that Dubois will not receive starting time with the organization. He’s either destined for the bench, as a lefty-masher, or the trade market. There should be a value for him, and the combination of Dubois and Sergio Mitre could make for an attractive package.

    No Cub pitching prospect broke out this season more than Renyel Pinto. Despite respective ERAs of 3.31 and 3.22 in the Midwest League and FSL, Pinto didn’t draw a lot of hype despite less than stellar K/9 and K/BB ratios. Things change. As a 22-year-old in the Southern League, Pinto changed all that, striking out 179 in 141.2 IP, while allowing 107 hits and ten home runs. His BB/9 has gone up in each of the last three seasons, a trend that must stop if Pinto is to have a future with this organization.

    Any North Side pitching prospect having a future is highly doubtful, but there is a glimmer of hope. Matt Clement is a free agent at season’s end, and Greg Maddux will likely be gone after 2006. As Alex Ciepley commented yesterday, Jim Hendry will unfortunately lean on Ryan Dempster to fill the fifth starter’s spot. I believe that Mitre is ready, and Bobby Brownlie, Ricky Nolasco and Pinto are turning the corner. Pinto had the best ERA, H/9, K/9 and HR/9 of the bunch, and right now is the frontrunner. Let’s just hope the extra innings in the Venezuelan League don’t hurt that left arm.

    Before the season, the Cubs two best southpaw arms belonged to Justin Jones and Andy Sisco, a few high-talent, low-performance prospects. Jones was dealt to the Twins, and Sisco’s poor season in the FSL puts his future in doubt. Now, the Cubs top two lefties have shifted, to Pinto and Sean Marshall. As a 21-year-old in the Midwest League, Marshall dominated, with a 1.11 ERA in seven starts. Marshall allowed just 29 hits in 48.2 innings, with an awesome strikeout-walk ratio of 51-4.

    According to Baseball America, a publication while amazing that I try to not use too often, Marshall shows great sink on his fastball, and has promise with three other pitches. For some reason, the Cubs aggressively moved Marshall to AA, where he struggled in six starts before hurting his left hand. Sent to the AFL to get more work, Marshall has done well in two starts, posting a 3.18 ERA in 5.2 innings. Hopefully the Cubs won’t take risks like promoting Marshall to the Southern League to start 2005, because he might just be my favorite arm in the system.

    Good stuff, bad head. Leon Lee didn’t expect this when he signed Jae-Kuk Ryu out of a Korean high school, where Ryu had been one of the best starters in the nation, amateur or not. I won’t get into the bird incident of 2003, but questions of Ryu’s character have begun. It was an injury, not character issues, that limited Ryu’s innings total to 26 this season. Furthermore, all twenty of Ryu’s appearances this year came in relief, a destination where Ryu is apparently headed.

    Like Marshall, JK has been sent to the AFL for more work. While Ryu’s ERA might sit at 3.68 after four games, he’s allowed ten hits in 7.1 innings. Jon Leicester, Todd Wellemeyer and Mike Wuertz all currently could encompass roles in the 2005 bullpen. After that, Jermaine Van Buren went from an Independent League signing to possibly the next Joe Borowski. Where does Ryu fit in? Well, the Korean has stuff that none of the aforementioned four can match, and now it just comes down to his head.

    The last prospect we’ll touch on today will be, in all likelihood, the top ranked Cubs prospect this winter. After nearly breaking the Midwest League home run record, Brian Dopirak won both the MVP and Prospect of the Year Award in that level. His power is a lot more developed than the average 20-year-old, and his patience made huge strides this year. For Dopirak, the only skill left to perfect is more contact, as the first basemen has struck out 226 times in 229 career minor league games.

    Sending low-A players to the AFL is risky, but the Cubs need to decide where Dopirak fits on the prospect scale. He’s off to a predictable slow start, hitting just .214/.241/.464 after seven games. The former second rounder will surely be sent to Daytona next year, where he’ll try to top Brandon Sing’s club record of 32 home runs. He’ll do it. Somewhere I read on the Internet the plan is to move Dopirak to right field and have him replace Sosa. Completely incorrect. Dopirak’s lack of athleticism will constrict him to first base, with a possible opening after Derrek Lee’s current contract runs out (2006).

    Finally, I want to finish on concluding on yesterday’s article. I posted this in the comments, but find my work to be enough to re-post here. I went through Geovany Soto’s day-by-day box scores, and researched his 2004 month-by-month splits. They go as follows:

    April: .280 (14/50)
    May: .224 (15/67)
    June: .242 (15/62)
    July: .357 (25/70)
    Aug.: .250 (18/72)
    Sept.: .273 (3/11)

    If anything, this only furthers the doubt in my mind that Soto will stall in prospect-land. One month, and particularly an eight-game stretch, changed Soto’s season from his career numbers. He’s just 21, and could really be the hitter he is showing, but I’m not sold yet. I am sold on his defense, as the catcher threw out 39 of 100 would-be basestealers, for a solid 39% CS percentage. John Hill mentioned in the comments yesterday that Soto appears to be a back-up catcher, and in my opinion, that would be the optimistic thought right now.

    As the rules have been explained to me, the 2004 Rule 5 draft will include all college players drafted in 2002, and high school players drafted in 2001. Well, those, and all the players preceding them, not currently on the 40-man roster. By that token, here is the list I compiled of currently draft-eligible Cubs, to be commented on at another time:

    Nic Jackson, Josh Arteaga, Eric Eckenstahler, Jason Szuminski, Carmen Pignatiello, Andy Sisco, Ricky Nolasco, Geovany Soto, Jon Connolly, Russ Rohlicek, Chadd Blasko, Rich Hill, Luke Hagerty, Matt Clanton, Matt Craig, Chris Walker, Adam Greenberg, Keith Butler, Jason Welie, Rocky Cherry, Jerem Spearman, Donnie Hood, Thomas Atlee, Paul O'Toole, Randy Wells.

    Please drop any thoughts or corrections in the comments.

    WTNYOctober 18, 2004
    Cubs Winter (1 of 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    Sending players to winter league baseball offers numerous perks for Major League organizations. You can get more work for players that were injured, or get perspective on just ‘how’ good a player is. You can decide where a player fits in your scheme of things, or even send your first round draft picks there. Today, I will evaluate five Cubs players that are fighting for 40-man spots, or risking to be unprotected for December’s Rule 5 draft.

    First, here are the eligibility rules for the draft, as told by Rob Neyer in the always-valuable Transaction Primer:


    A player not on a team's Major League 40-man roster is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if: the player was 18 or younger when he first signed a pro contract and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft since he signed, OR if he was 19 or older when he first signed a pro contract and this is the third Rule 5 draft since he signed.

    First, let’s look at the current state of the Cubs’ 40-man, which encompasses 39 players, and two on the 60-day DL (Borowski, Hollandsworth). Most recently, southpaws John Koronka and Will Ohman were added to the list. Both left-handers spent the entire season in Iowa, putting together solid seasons, convincing Cubs’ brass to protect their rights.

    Ohman was highly thought of after putting together a solid 2000 season in AA, culminating in a brief stint in the Majors. In 59 appearances, Ohman had a 1.89 ERA, posting a solid K/9 to boot. He spent 2002 and 2003 on the DL, only to return to AAA this season. In 52.1 innings, Ohman put together a 4.30 ERA with 75 strikeouts. Koronka, acquired from the Reds for Phil Norton, had a 4.34 ERA while starting all season. His peripheral numbers were nearly identical from 2002-2004, with a H/9 around 10.00, and a K/9 of about 6.50. Are these players worth keeping?

    Another question mark comes from Carlos Vasquez, a 21-year-old right-hander from Venezuela that spent all season in Daytona. If unprotected, Vasquez could fall victim to being drafted in the Rule 5 draft. But, after posting a H/9 of 10.80 in the FSL, the chance of a team taking a flyer isn’t great.

    Battling Ohman and Koronka for the 40-man LOOGY spots will be Russ Rohlicek, formerly acquired from the Houston Astros for Tom Gordon. This season, the 6-5 southpaw put together a season similar to Ohman’s 2000: 2.02 ERA, 5.74 H/9, too many walks. His lack of control, and inability to have a K/9 over 9.00, has raised questions on his future with the organization. So far in the AFL, Rohlicek has struck out 8 in 5.2 innings, although he has surrendered 9 hits and 4 walks.

    Of the four winter league position-players I’ll talk about today, only one is currently on the 40-man: Ronny Cedeno. A great defensive infielder, Cedeno has never played 120 games in a season. Furthermore, this season was the first since 2001 where Cedeno hit over .220, after hitting .350 in the Arizona League. This year, his line of .279/.328/.401 is definitely not enough to be protected, and must convince the Cubs front office otherwise in the AFL. He’s doing so thus far, putting together a line of .364/.440/.500 in 22 at-bats.

    Cedeno’s primary infielder competitor is Matt Craig, a third-round pick in the 2002 draft from the University of Richmond. In his second full season of professional baseball, Craig hit a solid .275/.363/.509 in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Primarily a third basemen, I love the fact that Craig’s ISO jumped to .234 this season. While he completely lacks the athleticism to play other positions on the diamond, I’d love to see what Craig does in Iowa next year. Definitely more so than Ronny Cedeno.

    Two other players from that West Tenn AA roster that will compete for spots are Adam Greenberg and Geovony Soto. Chosen six rounds after Craig in that 2002 draft, Greenberg’s line of .295/.385/.415 in the FSL stayed consistent from 2003-2004. And that, solid plate discipline and no power, is what Greenberg offers as an outfielder. He also offers decent speed, going about 25/35 each of the last two seasons. But does that kind of player have a future in this franchise?

    The Cubs system isn’t exactly flush in catching prospects, so you can understand their reluctance to open the possibility of losing Geovany Soto. A 21-year-old Puerto Rican catcher, Soto put together a decent .271/.355/.401 line in the Southern League. This isn’t very far from Greenberg’s line in Daytona, and he’s three years younger and plays a much more valuable position. But, he had been terrible in 2003, so the Cubs aren’t sure which Soto to believe in. So, he’ll play in the AFL (4/17 so far), and then follow that up with some games in the Dominican League.

    If I was Oneri Fleita, I would protect Rohlicek rather than Will Ohman, as he’s a lot more projectable. I would also drop Cedeno and Vasquez from the 40-man, and take the risk that neither will be selected and kept in the Rule 5 draft. I would leave all three other players unprotected, gambling that none are good enough to hang around the Majors all season long. That leaves 37 men on the 40-man, leaving room for all the free agents I want the club to sign this offseason.

    WTNYOctober 15, 2004
    Armchair GM Friday
    By Bryan Smith

    Can prospects cause position battles? How will some good players in the minors force their organization’s GM to re-evaluate that position? Last year, the Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski to make way for Joe Mauer. There have been numerous examples of top prospects being dealt because there is just no room for them. Today I have five examples of such situations, and some guesses on just what might happen…

    1. Andy Marte and Jeff Francoeur- Atlanta’s situation is really interesting. The team has stated their top offseason priority is re-signing J.D. Drew, and with most of their rotation headed to free agency, will have the money to bring him back. Andruw Jones is not moving away from center anytime soon, so Francoeur will not be playing center or right with Atlanta. That would force him to left field, where Charles Thomas and Eli Marrero were playing this year. Well, Francoeur is better than those two, so that’s not a problem, right?

    No. That means Chipper Jones has to play third base, the position where top prospect Andy Marte plays. So, Chipper can’t go to third, or back to left, so where? First base is filled by Adam LaRoche, who had a positive first season right in line with John Sickels’ prediction. To me, this means Chipper Jones, who is signed through 2006, with big options for 2007-2008, or $5M buyouts. Yikes.

    If they move Chipper, they will have to land some pitching to fill out that rotation. I have mentioned the A’s sending one of the Big Three, though I doubt Billy Beane would ever want to take on that contract. If not Oakland, who? Seriously, any ideas?

    2. Jason Kubel- According to Peter Gammons, when Terry Ryan went out looking for help at the deadline, he would not part with Kubel. This is a guy that hit better than .350/.400/.600 this year in the minors, breaking out of a shell in a big way. But, the Twins are stacked in the outfield, already using Shannon Stewart, Lew Ford, Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones in three spots. But putting Kubel on the postseason roster showed that he fits in their plans, for next year.

    To do that, the Twins must finally trade Jacque Jones. Now I know he came up big in the playoffs, and has been there forever, but trade him. And if you can trade Shannon Stewart, which I doubt, do that too. An outfield of Ford-Hunter-Kubel would be in the best interest of Terry Ryan. Jones brings in the third starter that Carlos Silva only sometimes is, and moves Kyle Lohse where he belongs: the five-hole.

    3. Casey Kotchman- Mike Scioscia has recently called Darin Erstad, and I think I heard this on Fox TV, one of the best first basemen he’s ever seen. What’s funny, is that Casey Kotchman has always drawn comparisons to Mark Grace, a former Gold Glover. With an outfield stacked with Guillen-Anderson-Guerrero, there is no clear setting for Erstad. And wasn’t it in some Gammons column where Scioscia said he would quit if Erstad wasn’t on that team.

    Well luckily for Bill Stonemann, a September situation answered this conundrum. Jose Guillen’s run-in with the Angels was enough to get traded, which sends Erstad back to center, Garret Anderson to left, and Kotchman to first. And remember, this is the same team that is putting Dallas McPherson at third base, while letting Troy Glaus go. Furthermore, they could dump both Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein, and instead use a middle infield of Nomar-Figgins.

    4. Ian Kinsler- Now listen, I’m not the biggest believer in Ian Kinsler. Sickels said he’s going to give the former Missouri Tiger a grade of B+ or better, a rating that I hardly concur on. Kinsler could be an average Major League shortstop, but pardon me, I don’t see a lot more than Rich Aurilia here. But, thanks for the memorable Midwest League season Ian.

    Well, the 2004 Texas Rangers sported a solid middle infield of MVP candidate Michael Young, and the solid Alfonso Soriano. To me, there are 2 options for John Hart. First, finally move Soriano to the outfield, where he joins Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. Then, put Young back at second, using Kinsler as the shortstop. Secondly, save the $6M on Soriano’s arbitration, and trade him for some pitching. This, after seeing that Ryan Drese and Kenny Rogers were the Rangers best starters, appears to be the best option.

    5. Joel Guzman- Go over to Dodger Thoughts, and read Jon Weisman’s recent post on the future of the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s damn good, I wish every team had someone to do this. To summarize, Weisman stresses the fact that Los Angeles should take the risk and re-sign Adrian Beltre. This, mixed with Cesar Izturis’ good season at short, prevents Joel Guzman from having a future in Los Angeles.

    Guzman, all of 6-6, is said to have outgrown the shortstop position. I’m not sure I buy that, and think the Dodgers should give him a try there. My plan? Start the 2005 season with Beltre at third, Izturis at short, and Antonio Perez at second base. When Guzman is ready, move Izturis over to second, and send Perez to the bench. Should Guzman not look good up the middle, send him packing in a deadline deal. If he plays well with Izturis, trade Antonio Perez.

    And then before long, you’ll see Delwyn Young cause a position battle with Cesar Izturis…

    Five more quick problems:
    - Ryan Howard in Philly- With Jim Thome, there is no spot for Howard. They are trying him at left, but there is no way a team can have Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell as their corner outfielders. It just can’t work. Look for Howard to get traded.
    - Eric Duncan in the Big Apple- Baseball America claims that Eric Duncan, a Yankee product, does not have the athleticism for second base. They suggest first, a spot I believe will be filled by Mike Lowell in the offseason. Duncan is a great talent, and if the Yankees hold onto him for another year, might have the best trade bait in the minors.
    - Hanley Ramirez in New England- Orlando Cabrera is coming back, I can guarantee it. Boston also loves Mark Bellhorn, at second base. What to do with Hanley, who looked like he finally started to put it together at the start of the year? Well, I would spend 2005 teaching Ramirez the second base position, with the plan of inserting him there in 2006.
    - Aaron Hill in Canada- You’ll see when I come out with rankings at a later date, I’m a fan of Aaron Hill. He started to look better at year’s end, and I think he could be a special hitter. Some are calling for him to move to third, with Hinske being run out of town, and Orlando Hudson staying. Instead, I’ve always supported the notion of trading Hudson, and moving the small Russ Adams to Orlando’s spot.
    - Joe Blanton in Oakland- He was toying with a 5.00 ERA in the PCL at some point, but finished in the low-4.00s. Blanton is ready to be a Major League pitcher, and should give Billy Beane enough leg room to trade one of the Big Three. If I was in charge of Oakland, and that ain’t happening soon, here would be the 2005 lineup:

    C- Damian Miller
    1B- Dan Johnson
    2B- Mark Ellis
    SS- Bobby Crosby
    3B- Eric Chavez
    LF- Chipper Jones
    CF- Mark Kotsay
    RF- Nick Swisher
    DH- Erubiel Durazo

    Yeah, that would work. Bummed that the World Series will have St. Louis and New York, this is armchair GM Bryan Smith, signing out…

    WTNYOctober 13, 2004
    Rookies of 2005 (2.0)
    By Bryan Smith

    Let’s pick it up where we left off yesterday, looking at the rookies of 2005. Yesterday I did the AL, today with the NL. While I thought there would be a lot more great names in the National League, only to come up a little disappointed. Let’s get into it…

    Starting in the NL East lies the Atlanta Braves, an organization proven to succeed despite many changes. Three-fifths of the 2004 rotation become free agents at season’s end, but still, John Scheurholtz’s top concern will be re-signing J.D. Drew. This creates a little necessity for young pitching, enter Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer. I’ve always thought of Capellan as a reliever, but admitted after seeing him that he could possibly make it as a Bartolo Colon-type. I’m not sold, and would much rather see Meyer land a spot, a pitcher who reminds me of a more polished version of Mark Redman.

    Both top position prospects Andy Marte and Jeff Francoeur finished the season in AA, and will be ready before too long. Yesterday I advised Billy Beane to trade one of the Big Three, today I will comment that Braves’ brass should consider dealing Chipper Jones for some pitching. Jones moved from left back to third mid-season, which are fittingly the two positions of the prospects listed above. Marte should be ready about when Alexis Rios was last season, meaning the team needs just a temporary replacement there. And if the Charles Thomas/Eli Marrero continues to succeed, stick with it, though be ready to put in the former top pick.

    In the rest of the division, the highlight will be the possible appearances of four great arms: Gavin Floyd, Scott Olsen, Yusmeiro Petit and Mike Hinckley. Floyd is the most likely to stick, as he had some ups and downs in a September call-up in Philly. I would call Olsen, with some of the best southpaw stuff in the minors, the longshot of the group. Petit could be up there quick if the Mets are in a semi-rebuilding mode, though you know that is not likely. Finally, I have always liked Hinckley, and think he could be ready for the new Washington (Insert Name Here)s.

    There should also be some hitters. Should Mike Lowell option out of his contract, as rumored, expect the team to give Joe Dillon a chance at the hot corner. While old for a prospect, the team should look at successes of Bucky Jacobsen and Terry Tiffee to tell you that more important than age sometimes, is performance. The team could also insert Josh Willingham behind the plate, who showed a lot of power in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Avkash Patel will see a rookie next year in New York, and he’ll tell you he’d much prefer Victor Diaz to Jeff Keppinger. But if Peter Gammons is right, and he’s known for that, expect Jose Reyes to be dealt, and the high-average, low-else Keppinger to be inserted at second.

    With new teams, oftentimes comes new promise for some players. Ownership in Washington won’t be inserted until mid-way through the winter, giving the team no leadership to develop a team. That means that holes on the left side, are likely to be filled by Maicer Izturis and Brendan Harris. This is hardly despicable, as both did quite well last year in AAA. Ryan Church was even better, but looks blocked by a decent Washington outfield of Wilkerson-Sledge-Rivera. Should one be moved, and Wilkerson might, look for Church to get the first look in the outfield.

    For years the St. Louis Cardinals have had one of the game’s worst farm systems, leaving Walt Jocketty to build the now champion team out of mostly spare parts (minus Albert Pujols). But things are slowly changing in the land by the Arch, as the Cardinals are developing a few players that might be worth a look. While I’ll always hope Rick Ankiel gets the first look at any opening in the rotation, also expect competition from Anthony Reyes, Brad Thompson, and Adam Wainwright. The latter fell of the truck with a terrible season in AAA, making the J.D. Drew trade look even better for Atlanta. Thompson began the season amazingly, got hurt, and finished Wainwrightish. Reyes is the stud, posting some jaw-dropping AA numbers, and could be in by midseason.

    Houston will be targeting one name this offseason, and Gerry Hunsicker will tell you: Carlos Beltran. This means the team will decline Jeff Kent’s option, giving second base to collegiate product Chris Burke following a great PCL season. The team could also give Fernando Nieve a role in the back end of the rotation, a la Brandon Backe, if he continues to impress. The Cubs will also be after Beltran, likely blocking Jason Dubois from the spot he so rightfully deserves. Furthermore, don’t expect Dusty Baker to be calling for Southern League batting champ Richard Lewis to be his Opening Day second basemen, though I could see him taking Grudzi’s spot in the second half of that platoon.

    And then there is, yawn, the rest of the NL Central. I think Zach Duke is going to be a good Major Leaguer for the Pirates, specifically looking at his ridamndiculous HR/9 rate this season. In my book, he’s more likely to achieve success than John Vanbenschoten or Ian Snell. Ben Hendrickson has too many innings to still be a rookie, and he could be the Brewers only hyped prospect in the Majors next year. But, don’t rule out significant contributions from Dave Krynzel or of course Rickie Weeks, who needs a bounce back season. Cincinnati has nothing until you get to AA, where they might break their 3B drought with Edwin Encarnacion, or actually develop a pitcher in Richie Gardner. Don’t bet on either.

    Let’s close out this party with the NL West, and specifically the division champs. I commented extensively in the comments of Jon’s great offseason preview article at Dodger Thoughts, but will re-echo my thoughts here. Despite Baseball America’s concerns, I think the Dodgers should give Joel Guzman a chance at short. Let him start the season in the minors, with Izturis-Antonio Perez up the middle in L.A. If Guzman’s successes continue, either move Izturis to second, or to another team. And finally, I think Chad Billingsley actually might have as much of a chance at a rotation slot as, huh, my 2003 #3 prospect Edwin Jackson.

    At the back end of yesterday’s article, I mentioned Felix Hernandez in the American League. His National League counterpart? Well, Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants. I could see him fly to the Majors, though I won’t be asking for any lines for him from the Bellagio either. More likely Giant candidates are Brad Hennessey or even Merkin Valdez. Also, expect David Aardsma to get a look-see out of the bullpen.

    The two good pitching prospects getting 2005 opportunities will be Jeff Francis and Tim Stauffer. I could have, of course, misunderstood the rookie rule, meaning Francis is not a 2005 rookie, so please correct me. But if he is, he’s the Scott Kazmir of the NL, the young pitcher that could struggle badly, or be the odds-on favorite to win the ROY. Stauffer is solid, and probably your safest bet. He’s never really struggled at any level, but lives on edge. I love what I saw in the Futures Game, and if he continues that, should be a success story.

    Predicting the future of the Arizona Diamondbacks is a fool’s game. In the outfield, they could go with Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson or Josh Kroeger. They could use Dustin Nippert in their rotation. They could sign Stephen Drew, send him to AA, watch him tear it up, and promote him by June. For this organization, anything can happen. But the prospects are coming in floods, and by 2006, Joe Garigiola Jr. won’t know what to do with himself.

    *********

    Well, that is a lot of names in two days. While you might have preferred the simplified version before the two days and 3,000 words, here would be my top five contenders for each league’s 2005 Rookie of the Year.

    American League Contenders
    Dallas McPherson
    Nick Swisher
    Russ Adams
    Scott Kazmir
    Jason Kubel

    National League 6 Contenders
    Dan Meyer
    Gavin Floyd
    Chris Burke
    Brendan Harris
    Jeff Francis
    Tim Stauffer

    WTNYOctober 12, 2004
    Rookies of 2005
    By Bryan Smith

    In the next two days, my hope is to provide you with the ultimate resource for what my title implies: next season’s rookies. I don’t want to just touch on who could win Rookie of the Year, but ultimately touch on the majority of players that will cross the rookie threshold next year. B.J. Upton and David Wright might not be high up on Rookie of the Year ballots, but not every baseball fan knew their names last year.

    To provide a thorough list, I first look at the players that had cups of coffee with the Major League organization this season. All these players are highly likely to play next year, many of whom will compete for the top rookie slot. I also look through each organization’s AAA and AA rosters, for players that didn’t get call-ups this year, but will get time next year. And finally, I quickly perused over the Baseball America high-A league top 20 prospects, to look for players that might make the big jump next season.

    Today I will cover the American League, which should have some nice ROY competition next season. I might be wrong on a few players, and whether or not they still qualify as rookies, so please correct me.

    In the American League East, it’s normally safe to say no big rookies will be coming in through Beantown or the Bronx. We saw Kevin Youkilis appear in Boston this season, but few rookies ever have a chance to make a difference with these powerhouses. If Boston spends too much money re-signing their core, look for Theo Epstein to trust Abe Alvarez to be his fifth starter. I’ve always been a fan of Alvarez, who Rich Lederer also likes, from Long Beach State.

    The majority of the rookies will be coming through Toronto, who could have as many as six next season. Russ Adams looked spectacular in a September call-up, and probably did enough to force J.P. Riccardi to trade Chris Woodward or Orlando Hudson. While Gustavo Chacin might not have made the difference Adams did, shutting down the Yankees for seven innings will always get you noticed. Carlos Delgado’s exit should open the door for Eric Crozier, a midseason acquisition from the Cleveland Indians. Furthermore, the closer reins could be handed over to Brandon League as early as next year, and he has sensational stuff. Finally, while they shouldn’t make much of a difference, notice that Guillermo Quiroz and Aaron Hill are right over the horizon.

    As much as Baltimore and Tampa need makeovers, they won’t be getting much of them. Scott Kazmir still qualifies as a rookie, and should be guaranteed a slot in next year’s rotation. This season, Baltimore showed they aren’t hesitant to start rookies, possibly opening a door for former Tar Heel, John Maine. Val Majewski, who I wrote about last week, could land a spot if his arm injury heals over the offseason. The Devil Rays have a bevy of outfielders to choose from (Joey Gathright, Jonny Gomes, Matt Diaz), but no spots with Crawford, Baldelli, and Jose Cruz. Finally, two pitchers that could make a difference are Devil Ray reliever Chad Orvella, and Oriole Hayden Penn. Penn busted on the prospect scene this year, and another explosion will surely land him in Camden Yards.

    Moving to the Central, it should come as no shock that the division champs could have the most rookies next season. The Twins are always known to shake things up, and 2005 should not change that notion. I’m already lobbying for the trade of Jacque Jones, as Terry Ryan has already shown confidence in top prospect Jason Kubel. The team also gave a significant number of appearances to Jesse Crain, who should further strengthen next season’s bullpen. The left side of the infield could be entirely new, as both Jason Bartlett and Terry Tiffee, have shown they are ready to replace Guzman and Koskie. And should any rotation spots open up, watch out for J.D. Durbin, or darkhorse prospect Francisco Liriano.

    We see an obvious difference in philosophies between Terry Ryan and Kenny Williams in the fact that the White Sox might not debut any rookies next year. Top prospects Brandon McCarthy and Brian Anderson might have chances, but neither will make a significant impact. Kansas City, shockingly, will see much of the same, with only Denny Bautista and Mark Teahen possibly getting serious time. And in Tigerland, as Dave Dambrowski keeps refusing to start from the youth, we should really only see Curtis Granderson. But don’t rule out possible time from second basemen Ryan Raburn, and WTNY favorite, former first round pick from Rice, Kenny Baugh.

    Mark Shapiro will continue his change of the Indians dynamics, as he continuously gives young players opportunities. Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips nor Grady Sizemore can still be considered rookies, but it will be interesting to watch how Eric Wedge uses them in his lineup. All three have already shown some amount of Major League readiness. The Indians rookies should be in the pitching staff, with Francisco Cruceta as the most likely rotation candidate. Also, look for Fernando Cabrera and former top collegiate hurler Jeremy Guthrie to get looks out of the bullpen. The only possible hitter that might make a difference is Ryan Garko, a C/1B type that could steal Josh Phelps’ job from him.

    Finally, we go out to the West, which should offer some fantastic rookies. The first and most notable is Dallas McPherson, who we saw this October on Mike Scioscia’s playoff roster. The Angels will not even attempt to pursue Troy Glaus, leaving room for Fabian’s arch nemesis. But expect McPherson to factor into the ROY debate, if not with average but power and opportunity. I don’t believe that Casey Kotchman still qualifies, but let’s all pray that on Opening Day 2005, no matter how highly Scioscia thinks of Darin Erstad, Kotchman is 3 in your scorecard.

    Billy Beane, who’s farm system I often criticize, will have a chance to prove me wrong next year. Former top pick Nick Swisher showed enough in September to convince A’s brass he’s their starting right fielder next season. Swisher’s average will probably be lower than McPherson, but expect a good OBP and ISO in his first full season. Joe Blanton, also chose in that draft, had a tough year before a great finish, and his K/BB and HR/9 rates would be enough to convince me he’s their fifth starter. Note to Beane: trade one of the Big Three. Oh, and Scott Hatteberg, so PCL MVP Dan Johnson can finally get a chance. Who knows what this team does with Octavio Dotel, but I can promise you that both Jairo Garcia and Huston Street will contend for some save opportunities.

    The Rangers had a breakout season in 2004, but like Kansas City in 2003, will fail unless they add more pitching. They will be hard pressed to find much from their farm system, as scouts think quite lowly of Chris Young, Kameron Loe, and Nick Regilio. If any Ranger prospect makes a difference, it will be John Hudgins, a prospect who I am borderline obsessed with. A former Stanford graduate, if Hudgins avoids arm troubles, I’m convinced he’ll make Grady Fuson proud. Finally, while they shouldn’t make much of a difference, expect John Hart to let Adrian Gonzalez or Jason Botts compete for the DH spot.

    Last and rightfully least, are the Seattle Mariners. After Clint Nageotte and Travis Blackley overstayed their welcomes, expect their chances to be limited in 2005. But I like the Australian southpaw, and still believe that Nageotte could be a force alongside Rafael Soriano in the bullpen. As for the lineup, the story of the offseason will be if Bill Bavasi makes room for either Jeremy Reed or Shin-Soo Choo. The former was September’s best call-up, while the latter is one of the scout’s most favorite prospects. But most of all, I would be remiss not to mention Felix Hernandez, who if he reaches the Majors as quick as Zack Greinke, could make waves in the Rookie of the Year debate.

    If Bat-Girl is promoting Santana/Nathan in the ’04 campaign, would it be wrong to start asking for your vote (think Internet Baseball Awards) for King Felix in the ’05 ROY race?

    WTNYOctober 11, 2004
    When Four Becomes More
    By Bryan Smith

    Before the season began, there were four highly regarded catching prospects touted with having extremely high ceilings. All four had already reached AA, and had their respective teams thinking about how to fit them into future plans. All four fit into my preseason top fifty, and probably just about every top 50 in America. One I wrote about a couple weeks ago, as a year later Joe Mauer’s future is a much hotter topic than the other three.

    Think about it. Terry Ryan traded All-Star A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants to clear room for his superstud, Mauer. There was already talk out of Anaheim that Bengie Molina wouldn’t see an extension, as Mathis fit into the 2005 plans. The once highly though of Kevin Cash was being prepared for life as a backup in Toronto, following Guillermo Quiroz’s great season. And finally, Dioner Navarro made so much noise, that Yankee fans were wondering if Posada was to move to first or DH.

    Then something happened. Joe Mauer hurt his knee, twice, and spent the greater part of the season on the DL. Mathis hit a whopping .165/.245/.250 after June 19, as told to me by Jim Callis. Quiroz fractured his wrist, and spent the better part of two months riding the pine, with the other time spent hitting .227. Finally, Dioner Navarro, once called Pudgito, saw his power sap down to four home runs in 391 at-bats.

    So, things aren’t really as they once were. Joe Mauer is going to slowly see less-and-less games behind the plate, as guesstimated to me by A-B’s own Will Carroll. Anaheim will probably move Mathis out of the Texas League, where Kevin Goldstein tells me is a strain for catchers. But, you can bet that one of the Molinas will be in the O.C. next year. Kevin Cash will get a year to prove himself, as Quiroz needs some more time in Orangemen land. As for Dioner, he’s probably tops on the Yankees list of ‘Players We Should Trade’.

    None of these players have disintegrated beyond the point of reconcile. In fact, there are still high hopes for all four, probably in the same order (Mauer, Mathis, Quiroz, Navarro) as they were in Spring Training. But what’s different than February, is that there are some names now in front of these guys, not behind.

    We’ll deal with the new class later, but first let’s deal with those catchers that were behind this winter. More than any other position, catchers tend to get drastically overrated in prospectdom, so there always seems to be a decent amount of depth. Due to that, before the season, Baseball America fans surely knew these names: Justin Huber, Kelly Shoppach, Gerald Laird, Jeremy Brown, and Koyie Hill. And if you don’t know all five, you definitely know the one who has a chapter in a baseball best-seller named after him.

    Let’s check in on those five now, a year later. Huber was sent to the Kansas City Royals in the Mets kamikaze deadline deals, where the buzz is he can’t stick at catcher. That might work out OK, because while in AA this year, Huber hit a solid .271/.414/.487. While Kelly Shoppach did win the International League All-Star spot as a catcher, the Red Sox are gonna need to keep Jason Varitek, unless Kelly can boost that .233 average. Laird looked good early for Texas, got hurt, and struggled mightily in the second half. But, he should factor into the Rangers plans for next year.

    Hill was sent packing to Arizona when the Dodgers went dealing in July, and his status has not wavered from solid. He probably won’t be a force as a starter anytime soon, but expect Hill to spend quite a few years on a Major League roster somewhere. And then there is Brown, one of the most famous non-prospects anywhere. What, non-prospect is a bit harsh? Well, that’s what I saw when you show me a 24-year-old catcher in AA with a .256 average and .101 ISO.

    In conclusion, if you were a catcher with a name before 2004, I’m sorry. This group struggled terribly, and was probably only happy because of the Major League performances of non-rookies Victor Martinez and Johnny Estrada. Now, it being the next winter, there are some new names on the list. Not a lot of names, grant you, but a few. And after a draft with a lot of catchers, there is promise for even more a year from now.

    Today, I’ll give you three: Daric Barton, Brian McCann, Chris Snyder. Barton was the 28th choice of the 2003 draft’s first round, the Cardinals’ choice from a California high school. It was said that Barton might not be the best behind the plate, but he had a stick. McCann was selected a year prior, chosen by the Braves 64th overall out of a, surprise, Georgia high school. And finally, we have the senior of the group, Snyder, who blossomed in this, his second tour of the Texas League.

    Barton began the season, his first full season, on the DL, only to rebound to become the Midwest League’s second overall prospect. Still in just his age 18 season, Barton hit an astounding .313/.445/.511 in 313 at-bats. Furthermore, Barton only struck out 44 times and walked 63, fantastic for a teenager. Sure, his defense was about as good as the scouts had told us, which is to say not very. But there is promise there, and Barton will stick for another season.

    If you want the definition of a ‘solid’ prospect, Brian McCann is your boy. He doesn’t do anything sensational, but there are few things he does badly. .277 batting average in one of the minors’ worst parks. Heck, I’ll raise that, how about a .210 ISO? His defense is sound, and he only struck out 54 times in 110 games. And he’ll reach the Southern League next year, at only 21 years of age. You probably want to bet on the Braves having a bit of catching controversy in 2006-2007, when Estrada’s skill set should begin to decline.

    And finally, we have Chris Snyder. If you read Jeremy Deloney, and I don’t know why you wouldn’t, you have heard of Snyder. To get a grasp of how good Snyder is, let’s use one of my favorite games:

    Player A: .323/.384/.500
    Player B: .314/.414/.518

    The latter is Snyder, who went on to hit .301/.389/.520 in the Texas League this season. Player A is someone we have already talked about, Jeff Mathis, and the 2003 statistics that made him the ‘hot’ prospect. And of course, we all now know of Mathis’ troubles, that .700 OPS this season. Snyder has now leapfrogged Mathis, who I once said had more power potential than Joe Mauer (oops). In fact, expect the Diamondback to get a chance in Arizona as early as next year, as we gradually see a slew of D-Bax prospects hit the Majors.

    Those are, for lack of a better expression, the new kids on the block. There are also two more guys I want to mention, two that would fit in that second tier. The first is Lou Palmisano, a 21-year-old Brewer chosen 42 picks after Barton. Palmisano won the Pioneer League MVP after hitting .391 last year, but saw his ISO drop from .201 last year, to just .140 this season. Let’s just say that while Palmisano might be decent, he ain’t enough for the Brewers to ignore Jeff Clement next June.

    The second member of the second group is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, chosen only nine slots behind Barton. Another Brave high school pick from the South (Florida), Brad Dowdy of No Pepper ranked him as the Braves’ 18th prospect. Expect Baseball America to put him top ten. But since he would know was better, here is Dowdy’s piece on Jarrod:


    Jarrod did everything you could ask for from a 19 year-old in his first year of full-season ball. He battled through a wrist injury in the middle of the season, and then had to shut it down near the end of the year with a hamstring tweak, but still managed to hit .272/.348/.437 in 323 at-bats, with 10 homers and 19 doubles. His OPS of .785 was 6% greater than the league average - especially impressive given his age and experience level. All indicators point to Jarrod continuing to progress as he moves up the ladder next season.

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what the current catching crop looks like now. With Mauer gone, there isn’t a lot available, with Barton looking like the current #1. But if this article taught you anything, I hope it was to take catching prospects with a grain of salt, most get overrated. Next year, I’m sure you’ll know of Neil Walker, Landon Powell and Kurt Suzuki. Because with catchers, there is always one more to hype up.

    WTNYOctober 08, 2004
    Problems In the Capitol
    By Bryan Smith

    In the prospect world, the Montreal Expos move to Washington did nothing but move two pathetic franchises closer together. While the Expos, behind current Braves assistant GM Frank Wren, once had the game’s top farm system, those times were more than fifteen years ago. With promises of little bonuses, Omar Minaya and his ‘scouting’ staff were very limited in their recent drafts. Montreal’s system for my midseason rankings didn’t offer a lot, besides ace Clint Everts and southpaw Mike Hinckley.

    And then there is one of the worst organizations in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles. The team hasn’t seen a homegrown star since Cal Ripken, and has had top prospects with these names within the last ten years: Rocky Coppinger, Nerio Rodrigeuz, Ryan Minor, Keith Reed, Rich Stahl. While the pitching looked deep in the offseason, the team traded Denny Bautista for a middle reliever, and saw John Maine have Jeremy Guthrie-like AAA struggles. And for the club, it was one of the worst months possible, they saw top pick Wade Townsend return to Rice University, Val Majewski was hurt during a September call-up, and worse, Adam Loewen went under the knife.

    Clint Everts and Adam Loewen. The two were destined to be high on prospect lists, before Loewen tore his labrum and Everts suffered the same fate as Tommy John.

    The two were chosen with back-to-back picks in the 2002 draft, with Loewen being selected fourth by the Orioles. Their teams were both really careful with the prize arms, as neither let their top choice pitch in the 2002 season. The next year, both waited until short-season ball began, where each was sent to the New York-Penn League. The southpaw, Loewen, looked slightly more impressive, posting an ERA of 2.70 in seven starts. Furthermore, the Canadian allowed only 13 hits in 23 innings, with 25 Ks and no home runs allowed.

    Everts struggled a bit, with an ERA of 4.17 in ten starts. He walked 35 and allowed 4 homers in 54 innings, with a K/9 below nine. But things improved when the 19-year-old moved to the South Atlantic League, where he posted five solid starts (3.46 ERA). Everts showed one of the best curveballs in the minors, but like Cubs prospect Bobby Brownlie, didn’t have the fastball to set it up.

    This season, the tables turned on these two players. Both prospects began the year in the SALLY league, with each seeing a late-season promotion to high-A. Everts low-A season went much better, as the right-hander shot through prospect lists with 90.3 innings of 2.47 ERA. His peripherals were even better: 6.68 H/9, 10.26 K/9, 2.09 BB/9. Everts got four starts in the Florida State League before blowing out his elbow, allowing only five runs in 20 innings.

    Loewen, not so good. Despite showing great stuff, Loewen struggled in low-A, posting a 4.11 ERA in 85.3 innings. His K/9 was under 9.00, but was worse, was his 1.41 K/BB. Control was a problem that many Orioles fell victim to this season, probably a reason behind the firing of scouting director Doc Rodgers. Still the Orioles decided to let Loewen close the season in the Carolina League, where he made it a total of two starts. The results? Six runs, nine walks, and three strikeouts in eight innings.

    Everts and Loewen now add to what has turned out to be a terrible top ten in the 2002 draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates inexplicably chose Ball State University right-hander Brian Bullington over Melvin Upton to start the draft, clearly a sign of things to come. Bullington has a career 6.68 K/9, while Upton became the first teenager to homer in the Majors since Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre. Upton joins Zack Greinke and Jeff Francis as the positives of the ’02 top ten, along with emerging first basemen Prince Fielder. The rest…not so good.

    Why is that? Chris Gruler, hurt. Everts and Loewen, hurt. Scott Moore, .240 average in 896 at-bats. Drew Meyer, finished year in Rookie League. Six busts in ten picks is despicable, especially when considering the 2001 draft. The year of Mauer and Prior has produced only two ‘busts’, Royal right-hander Colt Griffin, and Oriole choice, Chris Smith.

    Bad drafts are common for the Orioles, who also chose Mike Fontenot and Bryan Bass in the first round in 2001. Smith has less than 25 career innings at the age of 24, and Bass has nearly 1,000 at-bats of a .241 average. Fontenot, while not quite as terrible, has only one year with an OBP of better than .350, and is currently behind both Brian Roberts and Jerry Hairston in the depth chart. The Orioles are three deep at second base and traded a pitching prospect for Jason Grimsley?

    In 1999, the Orioles had five picks in the top 40. Let’s run through them: Mike Paradis (hurt), Rich Stahl (hurt), Larry Bigbie (“success”), Keith Reed (bust?), Joshua Cenate (hurt). Yikes. In 1998, two picks: Rick Elder (bust), Mamon Tucker (bust). In 1997, three picks: Jayson Werth (traded), Darnell McDonald (bust?), Ntema Ndungidi (bust). In 1996, no pick until choosing Brian Falkenborg at #51. And finally, in 1995, the team chose Alvie Shepherd with their first choice.

    Ten years of drafts (1995-2004), the Orioles had nineteen picks in the top 40. Of those nineteen, only Larry Bigbie is currently in the Majors. Adam Loewen became the seventh pitcher hurt, and 2004 choice Wade Townsend will not sign. Eight are busts, with only four still with any glimmer of hope. And to give them credit, there is still a decent chance that 2003 first-rounder Nick Markakis will make the Majors. But take that with a grain of salt, as Markakis was chosen ahead of Ian Stewart, Michael Aubrey and Lastings Milledge.

    So, you can understand why Doc Rodgers got fired. While Peter Angelos sits in his offense demanding seven or eight figures for his inconvenience the Expos move caused, he could be spending six figures to find a real scouting director.

    Coming soon at WTNY: Rookies of 2005, AFL preview, decline of C prospects, depth at SP…taking suggestions…

    WTNYOctober 05, 2004
    Seen But Not Heard
    By Bryan Smith

    In previous articles, I’ve written about some top-flight outfield prospects, like Los Tres Enemigos (Hermida, Francoeur, Pie) and the 3 college players (Reed, Swisher, Granderson). While the best players (Young, Kubel, Milledge) are always written about, few have touched on the great depth at the position. Today I will talk about seven players that often go unseen at the outfield position, and probably factor somewhere in the 15-30 prospect range.

    A fitting way to start this article is to touch on one of the most underrated prospects in the minor leagues. Sure, Val Majewski made enough noise to land a Sickels profile, but not by much. With Adam Loewen lost to injury, John Maine struggling and Denny Bautista traded, Majewski will battle 2003 first-round choice Nick Markakis for the title of Top Oriole Prospect. That honor will probably come with a bit of reluctance, as previous winners have included Ryan Minor, Keith Reed and Rich Stahl. What’s similar with these 3? We have forgotten them, which means it’s a good thing the Orioles have dumped much of their player development staff.

    Majewski is an interesting player, because he has both the polish of a college player to go along with the youth and upside of a prep player. The Baseball Cube shows Majewski as having played two seasons at Rutgers University, in 2001 and 2002. As a 17-year-old Freshman, Majewski hit .378/.452/.618 followed by .364/.431/.627 as a Sophomore. The Orioles made him a third-round choice in the 2002 draft, quickly assigning him to the New York-Penn League. Val hit .300/.376/.464 in 110 at-bats there, before finishing the season in the South Atlantic League. Success continued in 2003, where Majewski split the year between the Sally League (.303/.383/.553) and Carolina League (.289/.321/.509). We heard next to nothing about this guy last year, but a 19-year-old with an .830 High-A OPS is solid.

    And solid Majewski has remained. After turning 20 in Spring Training, the Orioles challenged Val with a promotion to the Eastern League. And Oriole management simply saw more of the same, as Majewski hit .307/.359/.490 this past season. What’s concerning is the plate discipline we saw in the NYPL and SAL has evaporated in his last two levels. His power is simply solid, with not a lot of room from improvement, which is troublesome for a right fielder. But when considering the fact that Baltimore split Jay Gibbons and B.J. Surhoff there in 2004, it’s safe to say the Orioles will use Majewski when ready.

    The same cannot be said for Matt Murton, an outfielder with the unfortunate fate of first playing with the Red Sox, and now the Cubs. Neither team is particularly known for giving position prospects much of a chance, instead dealing them midseason, like Theo Epstein did in the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Murton, also a Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket, was previously known for his power after once winning the Cape Cod League home run crown. But after posting a .292/.364/.437 line in the Florida State League, it appears those days might be behind him.

    Murton now has a career ISO of .135, definitely not good enough for a left fielder. But there is hope that Murton, otherwise harnessing a very solid game, will again show the power he did in his amateur days. As a Cubs fan, I love the addition of Murton, a player I feel will blossom in 2005. The FSL, nor the Southern League (where Murton will play in 2005), are great on hitters, but Matt Murton will be prove good enough to be traded, yet again.

    Alex Romero is destined for the same fate, yet another outfielder in Minnesota’s glut of young outfielders. Consider the following:

    Player A: .298/.361/.400
    Player B: .292/.387/.405

    In this old, overused game, Player A is Jason Kubel, now the second best outfield prospect in the minor leagues. Player B is Romero, a Venezuelan that put up those numbers while being a year younger than Kubel. Now it’s unfair to say if Romero will have a Kubel-like breakout in 2005, though if I were Terry Ryan, I would wait nine months to consider trading him. For now, Romero is a 21-year-old, switch-hitting outfielder with solid tools, next year, we’ll see what the Eastern League brings.

    Yet another player that was hurt by the pitching-friendly FSL was WTNY favorite Melky Cabrera. And not only my favorite, but also frequent commenter Fabian, who tracks this stuff on a daily basis. After beating up on Midwest League pitching to the tune of .333/.383/.462, the Yankees gave Cabrera a mid-season to promotion to the FSL. It was in Tampa where Cabrera put up a .288/.341/.438, actually showing improvements in ISO and OBP-BA. So in case you’re keeping score at home, that is three consecutive spikes in ISO, finishing with .150.

    Like Romero above, Cabrera is a Caribbean, switch-hitting outfielder. At previous times, I’ve compared Cabrera to Bernie Williams, another switch-hitter that played in High-A at 20, not 19 like Cabrera was in 2004. Bernie’s ISO was .152, though his average (.335) and walk (65) totals were superior. I doubt Melky will ever reach Bernie’s greatness, but I do think he’s one of the Bronx Bombers top prospects. And unless they sign Carlos Beltran or another CFer in the near future, maybe they’ll open a spot for him too. I doubt it.

    On the other side of The Rivalry is another outfielder that saw a late season promotion to the FSL. Brandon Moss was one of the South Atlantic League’s best hitters this season, hitting .339/.402/.515 before getting 83 at-bats in Sarasota. The greatness did not stop in those 22 games, where Moss hit a ridiculous .422/.462/.542. This season has come as quite a surprise to scouts, as Moss had previously posted a .587 OPS in the GCL and .720 OPS in the NYPL.

    His tools aren’t superior, especially his outfield defense. But it’s too early to call this season a gaffe, as we saw improvements in his strikeout rate, which also helped a jump in batting average. While I have no way to have the stats behind this, my guess would be that Moss had a BABIP higher than average, and should see a reduction in batting average next season. But if he puts up a .280/.350/.480 line in the FSL, he’ll seem even better to me than Alex Romero or Matt Murton.

    From the solid to the toolsy, we move to an overlooked Tampa Bay prospect. This really shouldn’t happen, as you would expect Devil Ray fans to grasp on anything moving in the minor leagues. Elijah Dukes seemed to put all his tools together that made him a 3rd round choice in 2002, actually improving after a midseason promotion from the Sally League to the Cali League. I’ve gotten some heat on not liking Rocco and liking Gathright, but can’t we all just agree on Elijah Dukes?

    In 43 games alongside Delmon Young in the South Atlantic League, Devil Ray brass promoted Dukes with a .288/.368/.423 line. What happened in Bakersfield? Average, up. ISO, up. OBP-BA, up. While he didn’t have the 14/15 SB success rate he had in low-A, 16/23 ain’t bad. And overall, 30/38 is fantastic. Like a toolsy prospect, Dukes has significant SO/BB issues, especially when he has 227 career Ks in 218 games. This kid has possible star written all over him, and will be a name I watch next year extremely closely.

    But I’ll see your A-ball tools prospect, and raise you one. In case you weren’t aware, the South Atlantic League was home to not one, but 2 good outfield prospects with the last name ‘Young’. I’m not a huge fan of the White Sox minor league system, but I think Chris Young has more potential than Brandon McCarthy, Brian Anderson or Ryan Sweeney. Young put his name on the map with a solid Appy League performance last year, hitting .290/.357/.479.

    More of the same came from Young this season, though there was a significant decrease in contact. Young’s batting average went from .290 to .262, and he struck out 145 times in 135 games. But, good things came from the season as well. Young stole 31 bases in 40 attempts, an improvement off the 75% success rate from 2003. His ISO went up to .243, which shows superstar potential. And to make you sabermatricians happy, he also saw a rise in walks, reaching base 66 times via the walk.

    Be mad at Kenny Williams for trading Jeremy Reed, and be mad at the media for overhyping Ryan Sweeney. But be happy White Sox fans, you got a good one in Chris Young.

    Quickly, a ranking of the 7: Majewski, Cabrera, Young, Dukes, Murton, Romero, Moss. That’s all for today, though I urge interested readers in researching a few other players that just missed this list: Jason Pridie (Devil Rays), Michael Bourn (Phillies) and Fred Lewis (Giants).

    WTNYOctober 04, 2004
    No Switch Needed
    By Bryan Smith

    Last week, I talked about the trials, tribulations, and future of Joe Mauer. We talked about the possibility of moving Mauer’s injured knee to third base, where the 20-year-old would see increased career longevity. A year ago, it would have been foolish to hint at Joe Mauer and B.J. Upton, once my top two prospects, playing the same position. Now, it’s quickly becoming a reality.

    While it now appears the grounders Mauer was taking at third weren’t prepping him for a position change, the idea of having Upton make the A-Rod switch appears real. Lou Piniella, who promised to honor his contract in Tampa, has recently been boasting his 2004 shortstop, Julio Lugo. Called the ‘spark’ of the team, Piniella will lobby to management to pay Lugo the upwards of $3 million he’ll command next year. And moving Julio to second does not appear to be an option, rather move the 20-year-old to the hot corner.

    For much of the season, the Devil Rays split the .614 OPS Geoff Blum and immovable Aubrey Huff at third. Upton’s arrival changed things, as once he showed his error-prone defense up the middle, Piniella shipped him further left. Blum also split time with Rey Sanchez at second (.617 OPS), shaping one of the worst combinations in the Majors. Luckily, the arrival of 22-year-old Jorge Cantu moved both Blum and Sanchez to the bench, where they should be destined until their retirements.

    Before the season, not a lot of Major League production was expected out of Cantu or Upton. Cantu was a 22-year-old shortstop who had previously walked a total of 80 times in 1,979 total minor league at-bats. And Upton, while screaming of future success, only had 19 years and 105 at-bats above A-ball to his name. Despite having less career AA at-bats than Upton, Joey Gathright merited the highest expectations. And for good reason, because in 2003 the Devil Ray hit .334, and posted OBPs above .400 in both the California and Southern Leagues. But with an ‘All-Star’ in left and the world’s most overrated centerfielder, Gathright didn’t have much of a future with the team.

    After 200 solid at-bats in AAA in 2003, Jorge Cantu began the 2004 season with the Durham Bulls. He would spend 98 games in the International League, before getting the promotion to the Majors. Cantu saw a power spike that led to a .274 ISO, even with the infielder hitting better than .300. Playing second, short and third, Cantu hit 56 extra-base hits, or almost one every six at-bats. His patience stayed pretty poor, as he walked just 16 times in 368 at-bats. But still, Cantu had posted his best OBP since 2000, and he presented a much better option than Rey Sanchez or Geoff Blum.

    But as still remains the problem, B.J. Upton was never a better option for Lou Piniella than Julio Lugo. Not a better option, despite being a former #2 overall pick and harnessing five-tool attributes. Not a better option, despite an .878 AA OPS and .930 AAA OPS. So Piniella, always stubborn, moved Upton to third base, where he made just two errors all season. But take that with a grain of salt, as two errors still equals a low .914 fielding percentage.

    And finally there was Gathright, who looked great after starting the season late with a hamstring injury. Gathright made an Upton-like tear through AA and AAA, but struggled a bit in the Majors. He did have a chance to play semi-regularly, with Rocco spending some time on the DL. I think, despite poor numbers this year, Gathright is ready to be a Major League contributor.

    If the Devil Rays are seriously pondering a left side of Lugo and Upton, this will be a speed-first type team. Carl Crawford already adds an element to the game that few can match, and adding Gathright to that mix would make this the fastest team in the Major Leagues. To add Gathright, of course, would command the exit of fan-favorite Rocco Baldelli. Since writing a Devil Ray preview on Hardball Times, I have been open about my dislike for Baldelli. This came with a bunch of criticism from readers, but I still say that Rocco will not become a star.

    But, there is no question his trade value is high. So when Carlos Beltran runs to New York City after the playoffs, exploit the same team that milked Brandon Backe for Geoff Blum. The Astros will have a big hole in center field, and would undoubtedly show interest in the cheap, but effective Baldelli. And, according to Ken Rosenthal, the Astros have shown a willingness to trade Morgan Ensberg. So screw re-signing Lugo and moving Upton, trade for Ensberg. They would also have the bargaining power to acquire one other Astro, thought doubtfully anyone significant.

    But, with Ensberg in and Lugo gone, these are the players guaranteed of starting jobs next year:

    C- Toby Hall
    2B- Jorge Cantu
    SS- B.J. Upton
    3B- Morgan Ensberg
    LF- Carl Crawford
    CF- Joey Gathright
    DH- Aubrey Huff

    This would open up a lot of money for not just the re-signing of Jose Cruz, but possibly another player. With Tino Martinez off the books, would Richie Sexson consider playing in Tampa? In need of a power bat in the middle, maybe Piniella could convince owner Vince Naimoli to offer Sexson a three or four-year deal. I doubt offers will be fantastic for Sexson, which would work right into the Devil Ray plans.

    And now, your 2005 Tampa Bay Devil Ray Opening Day batting order:

    1. Carl Crawford- LF
    2. Joey Gathright- CF
    3. Aubrey Huff- DH
    4. Richie Sexson- 1B
    5. Jose Cruz- RF
    6. Morgan Ensberg- 3B
    7. B.J. Upton- SS
    8. Toby Hall- C
    9. Jorge Cantu

    With that time, I would follow Lou Piniella’s suit, and guarantee they would finish out of the basement. Not only that, but the above lineup could likely be had for less than fifteen million dollars. And once that Delmon Young character comes up…could we be saying, “Your AL East Champs, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays”?

    No. But maybe third place?

    WTNYSeptember 30, 2004
    Stuck in the Middle
    By Bryan Smith

    While there are arguments over East Coast bias and West Coast bias all over the place, I’d like to be known for Midwest bias. While the mid-90s were spent arguing over whether Tupac or Biggie represented their coast better, few recognized the rap industry spreading through cities such as St. Louis and Detroit. Maybe us Midwest baseball fans can do that, and let the Cubs (more bias) be our Eminem.

    So, today is dedicated to the Midwest…the Midwest League that is. I don’t want to call it a season recap, because under that circumstance I’ll probably be guilted into doing season recaps for each league. Today is more of a look of what happened where I live this year, in places like Kane County or Burlington. And don’t think we’re looking at the individual teams either, strictly the players underneath. This ain’t a prospect site for nothing.

    Minor league fans know the name Brian Dopirak, because he was one of many home run sluggers making headlines in the farm leagues during 2004. There was Calvin Pickering, and Ryan Howard, Brandon Sing and Mitch Einerston. And there was Brian Dopirak, the best prospect of the bunch. Formerly a second-round choice out of Florida, the Cubs chose Dopirak for his ‘raw’ power, hoping the rest of the package would develop in time.

    Consider it developed. Not only did Dopirak turn ‘raw’ power into ‘real’ power this year, but he also hit a career-best (sample size!) .307 batting average. His 39 home runs were extremely close to the Midwest League record, which led to his MVP and Prospect of the Year trophies this September. But, Dopirak does not come without flaws. While Cubs’ brass should be recognized for their great work turning him into a contact hitter, the next job is lowering the strikeouts. Dopirak whiffed 123 times this season, almost once per game. To make matters worse, the first basemen only walked 48 times, another number that begs improvement.

    Baseball America is convinced that Dopirak was far and away the best prospect of the Midwest League. While I would love this to be fact, I’m not so sure that Dopirak is handily tops in the field. Why? I like OBP too much. And for young Daric Barton, on-base percentage just happens to be his specialty. A 2003 first-round choice out of high school, Barton has made the transition to full-season ball that few have…a polished one. Despite starting the season injured, Barton bounced back to walk 69 times, good for a .445 OBP. And I still haven’t told you the best part? He’s a catcher.

    Apparently though, according to BA, he’s not a very good one. I don’t have the first-hand experience to report on that, but apparently a position change may be in order. Luckily for Daric, he has the bat to with almost any position. He hits for contact (.313), power (.511 SLG), and as we established, can take a walk. Barton probably doesn’t project to have a ceiling like some prospects, but he’s as solid a bet as you’ll find in A-ball to make the bigs. Well, not including Delmon Young, of course.

    Let’s stay on the topic of polished, because the Midwest League had more of that. Over in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the Angels saw an unheralded second basemen make a name for himself. Howie. While his physical attributes are apparently far from intimidating, Kendrick knows how to use a baseball bat. Howie showed that this season, hitting .367 in 313 AB, including forty extra-base hits. He neither walks nor strikes out much, but walks can be excused if the batting average stays that bloated. There aren’t high hopes for Kendrick to make the Majors as a game-changer, but he’s got one fan right here.

    For Eric Duncan, the worry is just making the Majors at all. He could deal with Aaron Boone as competition, but Alex Rodrigeuz? Not so much. Duncan, a former first round pick, has now established himself as the Yankees’ best prospect. His numbers, while not fantastic, sort of remind me of Andy Marte in his youth. Duncan has a solid ISO (.219), and walks a lot. But at the same time, we need to worry about average (.260), as well as strikeouts, which averaged more than once a game.

    Yankees fans will plead for Duncan to make the Edgardo Alfonzo move to second base, but don’t expect it. Duncan is probably the best trade bait the market will see this winter, and I doubt his jersey will contain pinstripes upon his Major League arrival. But unlike a lot of Yankees prospects, Duncan is worth trading for. But surprisingly, he’s not even my favorite member of that team.

    While I’ll give my reader Fabian credit for introducing me to Melky Cabrera now, I’ll probably take all the credit down the road. I’ve compared Cabrera to Bernie Williams in the past, another switch-hitting Yankee outfielder that spent his minor league days posting ISOs right around .150. Williams struggled a bit in his first tour of the Eastern League, so I don’t expect world-beating numbers from Melky next year, but I won’t forget about him. We’ll see this winter how the Yankees deal with their outfield, but in my heart of hearts, I like to believe there will one day be a spot for Melky.

    Melky was one of many prospects that started in the Midwest League, but quickly bolted for bigger and better things. The king behind this stigma was Tony Giarratano, a Tigers SS that left paltry Midwest League numbers for the FSL spot light. For some reason, Detroit promoted Tony to high-A, after the switch-hitter his .285/.383/.352 in the MWL. Giarratano went on to hit .376/.421/.505 in more than 200 FSL at-bats, cementing his spot on the prospect map.

    But don’t let those power numbers confuse you, Giarratano doesn’t have much of that. In a combined 367 at-bats this season, Tony hit only 24 extra-base hits, and only six home runs. He did steal 25 bases, and showed above average patience in the lower level. The key for Giarratano will be to keep making solid contact, taking his walks, and stealing his bases. The SLG will probably never hit .500 again, though it’s probably safe to say the average won’t smell .376 as well.

    After 59 games of being Clinton, Iowa’s largest draw, it was time for the Rangers to promote Ian Kinsler. A teen-round pick from University of Missouri, Kinsler wasn’t though of highly from the Big 12. But Kinsler put himself on the map in 2003, as .400 batting averages will do. Kinsler hit an astounding Reed-like .402/.465/.692 in the MWL, with 42 extra-base hits in 59 games. He also stole 16 bases, truly making him worthy of the 2004 Jeremy Reed award.
    Even a challenge to AA wasn’t enough to stop Kinsler’s hot streak. The shortstop hit .300/.380/.480 in Frisco, hitting another 31 XBH, for a total of 73. More than three times what Giarratano hit in 2004. He did make 34 errors, contradicting what his ‘strength’ was at Missouri. And while John Sickels vowed to give Kinsler at least a B+ in his next book, I won’t be as high on him. Kinsler should struggle handily next year, but still make the Majors and move Michael Young back to second. Or John Hart will join me on the skeptic bus and trade him, probably for some real starting pitching.

    That’s all the time I have for today, as I’ll probably share my other Midwest notes for another piece. Keep checking this site for new developments in coming days, which are of course coming slower than I anticipated.

    WTNYSeptember 28, 2004
    Twin Cities (c. 2005)
    By Bryan Smith

    In Monday’s edition of Under the Knife, Will Carroll cited an article that Joe Mauer has been taking groundballs at third base. This comes as quite a shock to Mauer fans, who unanimously voiced Mauer as the best prospect in baseball six months ago. In no way has Joe proven these notions to be false, but instead been the victim of injury.

    There is no question that the knees as a catcher’s most important body part. Joe Mauer has hurt that, and with that drastically affected his future. The Twins disagree with this, but Will Carroll tells me, “That's near impossible…. I don’t think [the Twins] are lying – I just think they're wrong.” How wrong? “I can’t imagine him staying back there for more than a couple years. No way he gets to free agency as a catcher.”

    During the offseason, Terry Ryan showed his confidence in his former #1 overall pick, who had yet to take part in a Major league at-bat. Ryan traded established All-Star A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants, to make way for his stud prospect. This stud prospect was following a season in which he was named Baseball America Player of the Year, after hitting .339 between two levels. Mauer’s title went from the ‘future’ to the ‘present’ overnight.

    Spring Training brought no changes to the plan, as Mauer hit .313 in 32 Spring Training at-bats. Mauer’s season began on April 5 against the Cleveland Indians, when he went 2/3, with two walks and two runs scored. Hell, he had two official Major League at-bats, and his name was half-way carved into the Rookie of the Year trophy. And then April 6, Mauer was lost to a “mildly sprained knee”, which would prevent him from playing again until June 3.

    From June until July 15, Mauer would have 103 at-bats, where he would hit .291 with six home runs. Why italicized? We are talking about a guy who in the minors had hit nine homers in 1,030 at-bats. A 21-year-old catcher had gone from hitting a homer every 114 AB in the minors to every 17 AB in the Majors. There were reports of Aaron Gleeman drool sightings from Milwaukee.

    July 15 was the last time we heard from Joe Mauer. His surgically repaired knee caused enough problems for Minnesota to hold him out all season long. How much would this decision hurt? Well, non-Mauer Minnesota catchers hit .212 this season...that’s bad. Sure, Henry Blanco proved to be Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate, but I think it’s safe to say the Twins would have downgraded 10% in CS% for .355 points of OPS.

    But this is all just a review, and this site ain’t called Wait ‘Til Next Year for nothing. What’s next for the Minnesota Twins and their prized 21-year-old catcher? Well, what we know at this point is possibly not catching. It should come as no surprise that a .900+ OPS behind the plate is more available than the same numbers at the hot corner. Why is this true? Well, I urge you to read some Dayn Perry, who tells us that from 1972-present, catching is the least valuable hitting position, while third base is sixth on the spectrum.

    At this point though, any Joe Mauer is a helluva lot better than no Joe Mauer. Finding a spot for Mauer in the lineup is most important, whatever that means from a team standpoint. And this explains third base. Well, that and the fact that Corey Koskie is a free agent at season’s close.

    Twins fans were surely expecting their 2005 third basemen to be Terry Tiffee, a 26-year-old minor league veteran that put up a .307/.357/.522 line at AAA. Before injuring his shoulder on September 13, Tiffee had also expressed Major League brass, putting together a .282/.349/.513 line in 39 Major League at-bats. Cheap? Check. Effective? Check. Fan favorite/Paul Lo Duca-like? Check.

    So, how do Terry Tiffee and Joe Mauer fit on this roster. Well, let’s check platoon splits. Mauer had a 1.146 OPS vs. RH in 74AB in 2004, compared to a .475 OPS in 33 encounters with southpaws. Sample size, yes, but that’s still one huge difference. Tiffee presents an even smaller sample size, but I should note he hit .167 vs. LH (though his OPS was .841). By studying just those numbers, I can tell you the Twins would probably like Tiffee and Mauer in the lineup with a right-hander on the mound.

    But who the Hell can hit left-handers? The first to raise his hand surely would be Matt LeCroy, who hit .322 against them this year, and .302 from 2001-2003. LeCroy doesn’t offer much in the way of positioning, but he’s one good platoon DH/third catcher. Also impressive was Michael Cuddyer, the old top Twins prospect, who hit .292/.380/.450 against southpaws in 2004. Cuddyer can also play some second base, though I should note Luis Rivas even boasted a .800+ OPS against left-handers in 2004.

    One way or the other, we know Corey Koskie will not be a Twin next year. Joining him should be Cristian Guzman, the long-time Twin mainstay at shortstop. He’ll be replaced by Jason Bartlett, another prospect once acquired for Brian Buchanon. The former Padre hit .331/.415/.472 in AAA this year, also showing solid defense up the middle. Well, maybe Gleeman drool can be reconceived after all.

    Will anyone else be joining Koskie and Guzman? I sure hope so. 2004 saw the emergence of Lew Ford, a 28-year-old minor league veteran stolen from the Boston Red Sox, who had a .845 OPS in 540 AB. Obviously Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart have long time deals, and their exit would present public relations issues for the Twins. That leaves Jacque Jones, and Jason Kubel, the next great Twins hitting prospect. Kubel hit .377 in AA before hitting .343 in AAA. And, oh yeah, those 66 extra-base hits.

    That gives us Ford, Hunter, Stewart, Jones and Kubel. Even without Kubel, the Twins would have a problem. With him makes things damn near impossible. So to make things possible, THE TWINS MUST TRADE JACQUE JONES! I’ve suggested this before, but this time it’s mandatory. Give Johan Santana money. Give Brad Radke money. Give Joe Nathan money. And trade Jacque Jones for yet another pitcher.

    Let’s get back to that lineup. I know that I want Mauer playing as much as possible, but Tiffee should be playing against right-handers. So, let’s say that Mauer plays third against southpaws, with Tiffee there against RH. In those situations, Mauer can play catcher, with some help from Henry Blanco (I’m sorry Twins fans). Also playing will be Morneau, Rivas, Bartlett, Ford, Hunter, Kubel and Shannon Stewart at DH.

    And against southpaws? Well, Blanco can go behind the plate, with Mauer at third, an outfield of Stewart-Hunter-Ford, and Matt LeCroy at DH. Kubel gets the seat since he’s a 22-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder, and Tiffee also gets a rest. Michael Cuddyer could play third if Mauer is feeling bad, or second if Luis Rivas needs a rest. How’s that sound?

    I assume you’re confused. So, here’s a good breakdown. The Twins against RH:

    C- Mauer (help from Blanco?)
    1B- Morneau
    2B- Rivas
    SS- Bartlett
    3B- Tiffee
    LF- Ford
    CF- Hunter
    RF- Kubel
    DH- Stewart
    UT- Cuddyer

    And now against southpaws:

    C- Blanco
    1B- Morneau
    2B- Rivas
    SS- Bartlett
    3B- Mauer
    LF- Stewart
    CF- Hunter
    RF- Ford
    DH- LeCroy
    UT- Cuddyer.

    That gives us twelve hitters for Rod Gardenhire’s preliminary roster, with space for two more. They’ll need another capable SS (see Nick Punto), and one more capable outfielder (see Michael Restovich). Furthermore, this provides a roster only paying Hunter and Stewart significant money.

    Just imagine the Twins with Johan Santana, Brad Radke, and another solid starter. Yes, that’s Kenny Williams shaking in his boots. Or Mark Buerhle, I couldn’t tell.

    WTNYSeptember 23, 2004
    WTNY Interview: Kevin Goldstein
    By Bryan Smith

    I was lucky enough to recently chat with Kevin Goldstein on-line, the man behind those Baseball America Prospect Reports you get in your e-mail everyday. Goldstein, a Chicago native, had much to say on top prospects, pitch counts, high school pitchers, and lots more. With this and my interview of Dave Cameron, we are getting the chance to look at two of the best minds behind prospect theory. Enjoy...

    Wait Til Next Year: OK, let's start in your backyard, the Midwest League. Do you think Brian Dopirak was worthy of the Prospect of the Year award?

    Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely, this is a guy who fell like 4-5 homers shorts of the league record, and he addressed the biggest concern in his game, the ability to hit for average

    WTNY: But from a prospect standpoint, is he far ahead of Barton, Kinsler, Danks?

    Goldstein: FAR ahead, no. But probably a bit ahead.

    WTNY: As for Kinsler, I can't help but see him as the 2004 Jeremy Reed, destined to struggle in AAA. Is this guy for real, or should the Rangers not let Soriano go quite yet?

    Goldstein: Is he for real? Maybe. I don't think we know yet. He's certainly far better than anybody expected, and I think that's for real. It's hard to have a fluke season THAT good. That said I'm still not convinced he's as good as this season was and scouts have concerns about his swing from the heels approach. I wouldn't go around saying the Rangers should get rid of an established star like Alfonso Soriano because they have this Kinsler guy.

    WTNY: Going back to Daric Barton, who led the MWL is OBP, how does he fit in the catcher scene considering Mathis and Navarro's struggles, Quiroz's injury, and position concerns about Huber?

    Goldstein: He can hit, no doubt about it -- but I still think the jury is out as to whether or not he can catch, which makes him difficult to compare to those guys. His bat is real, though.

    WTNY: Will Mathis and Navarro bounce back from subpar seasons? I saw that Callis was bullish on Mathis' stock still.

    Goldstein: I would be too on Mathis -- there is a very long list of catchers who have run out of gas in the heat of the Texas League and been just fine. Navarro, I'm not so hot on, I still think he's a pretty good prospect, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a power bat, and the body type is a concern.

    WTNY: Did you see better Yankee prospects out of Battle Creek this year? Particularly Eric Duncan and Melky Cabrera?

    Goldstein: I think Duncan is probably the top prospect in the Yankees system right now, and I have ad admitted mancrush on Cabrera -- I think he can hit .300 wherever he goes, but I'm not sure he's going to put up big peripheral numbers. I also like Tyler Clippard off that team.

    WTNY: Yeah, I noticed earlier in the year that Cabrera had similar numbers to Bernie Williams at the same age. As for Duncan, he has to be the best prospect trade bait out there, including Ryan Howard.

    Goldstein: he's certainly among them, but don't rule out a move to 1st, which will probably be open when Duncan is ready.

    WTNY: Or they could just put Jeter at second…While us Midwest guys were forced to watch some OK prospects last year, the real treats came from the Sally League. Is Delmon Young the best prospect in baseball?

    Goldstein: I think he's certainly in the team photo, but I don't think I'd put him at No. 1. I said it when he was drafted, I said he when I saw him in the AFL, and I still say it. He's Albert Belle.

    WTNY: But you'd rather have Marte?

    Goldstein: No, I'd rather have Delmon. And that's no insult to Marte

    WTNY: So, who is front and center in your team photo?

    Goldstein: I think the best prospect in baseball is Felix Hernandez

    WTNY: I think he probably has the highest ceiling, but I really worry about his workload. To me, Hernandez and Brandon McCarthy are two of the largest injury concerns in the minors.

    Goldstein: Felix threw 150 innings this year, so that really doesn't concern me. McCarthy did like 160+, which also doesn't concern me because he's so efficient, just 30 walks.

    WTNY: If you were a scouting director, how would you handle minor league pitchers? Tandem system, pitch count, or old school style?

    Goldstein: I'd do pitch count. I'm not a fan at all of the tandem system.

    WTNY: Why is that?

    Goldstein: I think it fails to put pitchers in enough pressure situations, and it fails to reward them for pitching very well and it limits their innings TOO much in my mind. I'm a big proponent of a manageable workload, but I feel we've become TOO paranoid about it and run screaming for the trees every time a guy goes over 100 pitches. It's not always a bad thing.

    WTNY: Some people say the tandem system in the low minors would be a good way to wean minor league pitchers into a 4-man rotation, which could be implemented come AA. Do you see a possible return to the 4-man?

    Goldstein: I don't know if we'll see a return to it, but I certainly support the suggestion. I believe one could do a 4.5 man very well.

    WTNY: Going back to top prospects, readers of my site always argue on the validity of Dallas McPherson as a top prospect. In his first Major League game he got 3 hits, in his second he struck out 4 times. Is he a possible superstar, a Jeremy Burnitz, or a dud waiting to happen?

    Goldstein: Well, that's Dallas McPherson right there -- a lot of hits, and a lot of strikeouts. Strikeouts are overrated. But to compare him to Burnitz is a little silly. Burnitz' career minor league average was .249, D-Mac's is .308, and his slugging percentage has gone up at every level. He's real.

    WTNY: Is McPherson in a need of a position change to outfield?

    Goldstein: Good question. The answer is maybe. I think he's an adequate 3B, and with Glaus becoming an FA, I think he's going to stay there for awhile unless he's really awful there. He has the arm for RF if necessary.

    WTNY: If he was to move to outfield, would he be well ahead of Francoeur, Hermida and Pie?

    Goldstein: Well, one difference is defense, Pie can play CF, and Francouer is fringy there but would be a better defensive player. I'd take Francouer over him just because Francouer's potential is enormous, but I'd have McPherson ahead of Hermida and Pie.

    WTNY: Dave Cameron told me an interview he thinks Hermida will have a big breakout next year, including a power spike. Do you see this happening?

    Goldstein: It could. He really wasn't healthy EVER this year, so it's hard to judge him. He's got juice in his bat, but I'm not sure what Dave means by a power spike. I think he's a 20-25 HR guy in the end, not a real masher.

    WTNY: On the topic of breakouts, who would be the one prospect you circle to have a big year in 2005, but didn't make a lot of noise this year?

    Goldstein: I'll take Rickie Weeks.

    WTNY: It seemed that AA was a bad barrier for a lot of hitters, including Weeks. I think him and Fielder will be fine next year, though I'm not sure on James Loney or Barfield anymore.

    Goldstein: Loney is a lot like Weeks in that he never really got going this year, but scouts still were NOT down on either of them. And, do you know who led the Southern League in RBIs this year? Josh Barfield.

    WTNY: So, you're still high on him?

    Goldstein: I still think he had a disappointing year, but I wouldn't give up on him.

    WTNY: Back to Loney, with the acquisition of Choi, he's blocked all of a sudden. How do you think the working relationship between Paul DePodesta and Logan White will work out?

    Goldstein: I think it's working out just fine, and will continue to. DePodesta is I'm sure well aware that he has one of the best scouting directors in baseball, and he's going to trust him as he should. It's not like DePodesta is going to cram some sort of Moneyball Dogma down people's throat like some would think.

    WTNY: Balancing scouting and statistics will probably work out best anyway… Baseball America is usually accused of being TOO on the scouting fence, how would you respond to that?

    Goldstein: Well, I think if that's the perception, it's dead wrong. Speaking for myself (and I know the same is true with Jim Callis and John Manuel) -- we're very much statheads. We're in our 30s and grew up reading Baseball Abstracts and thinking they were brilliant. That said, we ALSO feel there is incredible value in scouting. These are not just a bunch of fat guys in hats chewing cigars. These are incredibly knowledgeable people about player development. There's value in both and we look at both.

    WTNY: Do you think making the Prospect Report e-mail BEFORE joining the Baseball America staff helped you stay more of a stathead?

    Goldstein: I always valued and understood statistics, but frankly, many of them turn me off.

    WTNY: What statistics do you find to be most telling in a prospect?

    Goldstein: In a hitting prospect, it's the usual stuff hit for average, hit for power, run, plate discipline. Pitchers, I just look at ip-h-bb-k -- but those numbers can be VERY deceiving for a pitcher, you still HAVE to know what his stuff is.

    WTNY: Dayn Perry had a revealing study using current Major Leaguers, comparing stars to average players minor league numbers. He found that HR/9 had the best correlation of any stat for pitching. I also noticed this year that many of the successful 2004 rookies had great HR/9 ratios in 2003. Could there be something to HR/9?

    Goldstein: I'd have to see the data more, and I know Dayn personally and think he's pretty damn smart. But I rely on Ks, BBs, and stuff.

    WTNY: OK, kind of along the same line is the high school v. college player debate. Is there any reason for teams to avoid high schoolers, or do you like them because they have higher ceilings?

    Goldstein: There's no logical reason to avoid high school players. PERIOD. And there's no logical reason for favoring them. I saw you just take the best player available, regardless of source.

    WTNY: What about the Braves philosophy, to pretty much only pick high school players from the South?

    Goldstein: I don't think that's they're philosophy per say, but there is almost a safeness to these picks, as these are the players their scouting dept is most familiar with -- it's certainly worked VERY well for them.

    WTNY: I want to close on a trio of high school pitchers that have had memorable Septembers: Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, and Rick Ankiel. Who would you want on your club? Who would you least want?

    Goldstein: Toughest question of the day. I'd take Kazmir of the trio -- I've always liked him more than anyone else and I still do. I'd take Greinke second purely on safeness. Ankiel is the huge wildcard. If he never won another game in the majors, I can't say I'd be shocked. If he won 150 games from here on out and made multiple all-star teams, I can't say I'd be shocked.

    WTNY: Best baseball story of the year, I think.

    Goldstein: It's certainly right up there -- I have no idea how one couldn't root for him.

    WTNY: Agreed. Thanks again Kevin.

    WTNYSeptember 21, 2004
    Deep In The Heart of the Minors
    By Bryan Smith

    You don’t need me to tell you the pedigree of Texan pitchers. From Nolan, to Rocket, to the Kerry Wood and Josh Beckett, we’ve heard the same story for years. Scott Kazmir is next on the carousel, already outdueling the likes of Pedro Martinez. But after Kazmir?

    2003’s draft had three high school Texan pitchers chosen in the first round, two of which played full-season ball this season. Unlike Hermida and Francoeur in Georgia, their high schools are more than three hours away from each other. But both programs are competitive, and one of the two reached the state finals. John Danks was more touted out of high school, the first high school pitcher chosen. Miller was still highly regarded, and was the third player the Indians drafted, chosen 31st overall.

    It was a bit of surprise when the Rangers used their ninth overall choice on Danks, considering most assumed Texas assistant GM Grady Fuson was not interested in high school pitchers. Danks was compared to Kazmir often out of high school, a smaller southpaw that could light up radar guns. I haven’t heard any comparisons for Miller, who will probably start garnering comparisons with his recent sensational play. While their profiles aren’t as long as the likes of Nick Swisher or Jeff Francoeur, today I will look at what’s in store for these two Texans.

    After signing (Danks got $2.1, Miller $1.025), both pitchers got ten appearances by the end of the 2003 season. Teams seldom use heavily-ridden college arms late in the season, but high school pitchers are normally OK for such a stretch. Danks was on Fuson’s tandem-starter system, one that is thought to have prevented injuries to many of the Oakland A’s pitchers. Miller, while not on such a system, is with the Indians, who have a very good General Manager running things behind the scenes. While it’s always hard to ignore TINSTAPP, I really believe these two will stay healthy in the long run.

    Danks spent his ten appearances split between the Arizona and Northwest leagues. Danks showed brilliance in the AZL, allowing just six hits and four walks in his first thirteen professional innings. His ERA was 0.69 during the stretch, that also included 22 strikeouts and 0 home runs. But, as often happens, Danks struggled after the promotion, with an ERA of 9.00 in the NWL. He still displayed good peripherals, allowing no homers and striking out thirteen in 12 innings. There was undoubtedly greatness around the corner, and Danks was an undisputed top 5 Rangers prospect.

    As for Miller, he was sent straight to the Appalachian League, where he had some mediocre ten starts. While things weren’t so up and down as Danks, Miller had a 4.96 ERA in his 32.2 Appy innings. There were concerns after the right-hander struck out only 23, but good things were seen in his nine walks, two HR allowed and 30 hits. Remember that Danks ERA was still high at 4.68 for the year, though his peripherals definitely indicated a better prospect.

    When a player reaches full-season ball for the first time, it’s all about put up or shut up. This same mentality comes in AA, but that article will be saved for another time. Both players were sent to low-A, though Danks pitched in the Midwest League, with Miller in the Sally League. Both players pitched fantastically out of the gate, and were considered early for the Baseball America Player of the Year award.

    Danks’ debut was a little more notable, as the southpaw stormed through the Midwest League, en route to a promotion. He made eight starts there, though the tandem system also permitted six relief appearances. Overall, Danks pitched 49.2 innings, and allowed 12 ER for a sparkling 2.17 ERA. During that time he only allowed 38 hits, 14 walks, and four home runs. Furthermore, he struck out 64 batters, and showed enough stuff to be named on the Futures Game roster.

    Danks was promoted to the Carolina League just before the game, though I was able to give this tiny scouting report from his performance in Houston:


    I had high hopes for John Danks, a 19-year-old Rangers prospect, who would need 33 pitches to escape a bases loaded jam. Danks surely wasn’t helped by three questionable plays by David Wright, who I had heard was a dependable fielder. After a rather unimpressive at-bat by Joel Guzman ended in a single, Wright made an error, and ten two plays later tagged out Guzman running to third rather than turning a 5-4-3 double play. Last year’s ninth overall selection, Danks pitched slower than some reports had him, throwing between 89-92, and showcasing a curveball he left up quite often. It’s hard to blame the kid, he’s only weeks away from the Midwest League, which hasn’t exactly been a prospect’s paradise this year.

    And then, still kicking in the Sally League was Adam Miller. I don’t have month-by-month splits available (I’ll get them), but it’s safe to say Miller cooled off in the middle, after a red-hot start to the season. He got hot again at the end, something we’ll touch on later. But while in the Sally League, Miller pitched 91 innings in nineteen appearances. His ERA was a modest 3.36, and his K/9 rate jumped to 10.48. Also, he only allowed 78 hits and 28 walks, which is fantastic. Few people have the control of Miller, who has shown uncanny maturity for his age.

    Next we have the promotions, which will clearly separate the two prospects. Danks was moved to the California League, where he faced considerable struggles. The 19-year-old was overmatched, posting an ERA of 5.24 in 55 innings. His H/9 was over 10.00, with his K/9 a career-low 7.85. He was still allowing a home run every 11 innings, which I’ve said is a very good indicator. Danks has faced struggles before, and bounced back considerably the next season, so I wouldn’t worry.

    Cleveland didn’t face the concerns Texas did, watching their teenager blossom upon a promotion to the Carolina League. In 8 appearances, Miller had a 2.08 ERA, the best of his career. He also saw career bests in H/9, WHIP and HR/9. He closed out the season amazingly, where including the playoffs, he allowed just 3 runs in his last 29.1 innings. His stats remind me some of Jeff Francis, a player I loved last season.

    Unfortunately, I can’t give all of you genuine scouting reports on the two. Miller’s ERA is now lower, though Danks has a better K/9 and HR/9. And after all, he’s left-handed. But to me, there are few things more important than how you close the season, and Miller did so splendidly. I think he’ll bust out next year, possibly finishing the season pitching in the Major Leagues. Danks will take it slow, but eventually could be a force with the Texas Rangers. The problem with Kazmir always was his third pitch, an issue with Danks as well, I believe.

    So, the verdict rules in favor of Miller. Both will me top 50, but expect Adam Miller to finish narrowly ahead of his Texas companion, southpaw John Danks.

    WTNYSeptember 16, 2004
    As Good As It Gets
    By Bryan Smith

    News Flash: One of the best baseball stories of the year has happened in the last week, and you’ve probably barely heard about it.

    This isn’t your fault, but instead the fault of major media and blogging columnists. For a subject like this to sneak past writers searching for stories is amazing, and shows how apt we are to forget the human element in baseball. One of the most recent Monday Night Football’s best stories was the return of Mark Fields, a Carolina Panthers linebacker who had been sidelined for Hodgkin’s Disease.

    Rick Ankiel was sidelined, but for what no one knew. More like, for what no one could understand. No one could understand that a professional athlete could wake up forgetting how to throw. No one could understand that such a bright prospect had such a fast burn out. No one understood Rick Ankiel, and his name has faded into oblivion since the ugly 2001 playoffs. A tarnished life, seen through a few ghastly pitches.

    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that media wasn’t swarming in San Diego upon Rick Ankiel’s return, but I was. A 25-year-old with ace stuff returned, after one of the worst implosions in recent memory. But I didn’t hear much, a faint whisper of a few observant bloggers. One of which was Rich Lederer, who wrote the following after Ankiel’s first appearance:


    St. Louis Cardinals 4, San Diego Padres 2. Rick Ankiel made his first appearance since May 10, 2001. Believe me, you didn’t have to be a Cardinals fan to get caught up in the moment. Ankiel gave up a bloop single on an 0-2 pitch to his first batter, then retired the side with a combination of 94-mph fastballs, sweeping curveballs, and a circle changeup. The lefthander benefited from a spectacular, “do or die” play on a bunt that Scott Rolen barehanded and threw to Albert Pujols for the first out of the inning.

    Ankiel has made one appearance since September 7, an inning against the Dodgers on September 12. Through the advent of MLB TV, a fantastic feature, I was able to watch the southpaw’s second performance. And to make things even better, I watched it alongside Vin Scully’s commentary. One of the season’s best stories, spoken by the game’s greatest announcer.

    Ankiel was described by Scully as having “self-destructed with the spotlight on him.” He spoke of Tony La Russa’s high praise, saying the Cardinals liked Ankiel “not just as a player, but as a man.” This all came during Alex Cora’s at-bat, a two-pitch sequence in which Ankiel showed a 90 mph fastball and sick 71 mph curve resulting in a groundout to first. His curve looks similar to Barry Zito’s in Oakland, slow and sweeping. He shows a lot of confidence in the pitch, and would throw it nine times in 18 pitches that day.

    During a second, eight pitch at-bat to Antonio Perez, Scully told the story of Ankiel’s disastrous NLDS. He noted that Mike Matheny wasn’t catching that day, and said “for all we know, maybe [Ankiel] wouldn’t have gone through that baptism of fire with Matheny behind the plate.” Finally, Ankiel struck Perez out on another curve. The last batter he faced was Tom Wilson, who also worked the 25-year-old for eight pitches. He was retired after Hector Luna made a nice play on a ball scorched to the hot corner.

    So, contrary to what ESPN’s box score says, Ankiel had an impressive 1-2-3 inning. UPN’s gun had Ankiel between 89-91 with his fastball, but watching him I was more apt to believe Rich’s reading of 94 mph. His control was fantastic, as Matheny never had to extend his arm for a pitch. With Matt Morris and Cris Carpenter as free agents-to-be, you have to think there will be a rotation spot waiting for Ankiel next year.

    I loved Vin Scully’s closing line on Ankiel, “there’s a lot of tragedy behind that name, behind that jersey.” But out of tragedy comes triumph, and in this case, even a Cub fan can hope for that.

    WTNY

    The game also gave me a chance to watch Edwin Jackson, who was my top rated pitcher before the season. Jackson has had a rough year, first being beaten up in a hitter’s stadium, then serving time on the DL. But he’s gotten 13.2 Major League innings in, posting a respectable 3.95 ERA. I watched the second inning of his last appearance, in which Jackson yielded the go-ahead run that would lead to his first loss of the season.

    In the 12 pitch inning, Jackson threw nine fastballs, showing a drastic preference for the pitch. He was between 91-95 mph on what I’ve described as a ‘slow gun’, so probably even 93-97. Despite walking one batter, Jackson showed solid control of the pitch, never missing by too much. He also showed a decent curve, with solid downward bite at 82-84 mph. It looks like he has the tendency to leave his pitches up in the zone, which is probably the reason for the three home runs allowed this season. But overall, I like him, while admitting the ranking may have been a little high.

    I love MLB TV. I love flipping through the channels, checking out games, becoming that much more involved in the NL Wild Card race.

    WTNY

    But, my MLB TV watching was not done there. I also made a stop at a couple of Atlanta games, where their top two pitching prospects Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer made debuts. Capellan started the Sunday, September 12 game against the Expos, and saw a possible win blown by John Smoltz. In five innings, the 23-year-old allowed four hits and three walks, while striking out four. Like Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis, Capellan’s primary problem was the sheer number of pitches, 111 in five innings.

    Like in the Futures Game, Capellan began the game throwing primarily fastballs. It’s a great pitch, 96-99 mph, but without anything else caused some problems. In the first inning, Capellan allowed two hits, two walks and a run, pitches out of a bases loaded, one out jam. This was because Jose started to mix in his curve, a low-80s pitch with sharp, downward bite. It’s a good pitch, and sees problems when he leaves it up in the zone. He finished the game well, retiring eight of the last nine batters he faced.

    With thick thighs powering his fastball, Capellan is reminiscent of the Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez type pitcher. After watching the Futures Game, I speculated Capellan may be best out of the bullpen, but I think he could have a Colon-like career in starting. Bartolo’s career started as a 24-year-old in 1997, where he had a 5.65 ERA in 94 innings. Atlanta’s hoping that this season’s cup of coffee will bypass problems in 2005. Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright and Paul Byrd are all free agents, and could conceivably be replaced by Horacio Ramirez, Capellan, and Dan Meyer.

    Oh, what about Dan Meyer? Meyer made his debut Tuesday night, pitching the eighth inning in a 7-0 loss to the New York Mets. The 23-year-old southpaw had a solid season between AA and AAA, and will surely be a rotation candidate next season. Meyer had the advantage of facing Kris Benson, Gerald Williams, Jeff Keppinger and Cliff Floyd in his first big league stint, only surrendering a single to Keppinger. The MSG radar had him between 86-88, which is probably 1-2 mph off. He throws effortlessly, and showed what looked to be two breaking pitches and a change.

    Good things are about to hit Atlanta, who have the advantage of their farm system opening up enough money to re-sign J.D. Drew. I think they’ll retain both Drew and Jaret Wright, sending one of the three above away.

    WTNY

    So, that’s where my TV watching ended. But, I want to report that Scott Kazmir out-dueled Pedro on Tuesday night, pitching six scoreless innings to drop the ERA to 4.09. What’s better, is the southpaw threw only 92 pitches in six innings, despite walking three and whiffing nine. Also on the same team, B.J. Upton played his fourth game at third base, where he’s yet to make an error. An 0/3 night dropped his line to .286/.350/.438, which is of course fantastic for a 20-year-old.

    In other prospect news, Jeff Francis won his second game in a row Saturday, both wins over the Padres. In those two starts, the 23-year-old has allowed two runs in 10.1 innings, though the ERA is still at 7.32. Gavin Floyd’s ERA sits at 2.65 after three starts, and the 21-year-old may be the most impressive of September call-ups. Minus Rick Ankiel, of course. Finally, if teams aren’t taking away something from the performances of Bucky Jacobsen, Terry Tiffee and Calvin Pickering, then they’ll never learn. More on that for another time.

    So, drop a line, tell me the most impressive youngster you’ve seen this year, or your opinion of Rick Ankiel’s future. And if you can, watch Jose Capellan tonight, and see if you agree with the Bartolo Colon comparison…

    WTNYSeptember 15, 2004
    Two You Know...
    By Bryan Smith

    On Monday, I grouped together a trio of young outfielders that were on similar courses. The three are probably right behind Delmon Young in outfield prospect rankings, likely with all three slotting in somewhere 2-5. Today, I want to look at a trio of second tier outfielders, from that Hermida/Francoeur 2002 draft.

    Again, today’s comparison features three similar players. Each are outfielders that started, but might not stay in centerfield. Two have been compared to Lenny Dykstra, and all tout fabulous discipline. Nick Swisher was the only outfielder chosen between Hermida and Francoeur, chosen from a college (Ohio State) better known for football than baseball. But, his talents drew praise from Michael Lewis in Moneyball:


    “Swisher is a rare point of agreement between Paul’s computer and the internal compass of an old baseball guy. He has the raw athletic ability the scouts adore; but he also has the stats Billy and Paul have decided matter more than anything: he’s proven he can hit, and hit with power; he drew more than his share of walks.”

    The second was Kenny Williams second choice in the 2002 draft, behind only the infamous “You’ve got to be f***ing kidding me” choice of Royce Ring. Jeremy Reed was from a college (Long Beach State) better known for baseball than anything else. My 2003 Player of the Year has since switched organizations, and now plays for the Seattle Mariners.

    And finally, we go on one more round to find the last. While the Horizon League isn’t well known for prospects, but few dominate in the way Curtis Granderson did. His college, Univeristy of Illinois-Chicago, isn’t really known for anything at all. But Granderson wasn’t on the Horizon League level, so the Tigers made him the 15th outfielder chosen in the 2002 draft. Good move.

    Today I’ll compare and contrast the careers of Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Jeremy Reed, from their days in college to their recent September call-ups. None of the three will amass enough at-bats to graduate out of prospect status, so today will help define which will be ahead of the other in my next prospect rankings.

    Part One: College Baseball

    Unfortunately, the fabulous Baseball Cube (as well as the LBSU site) only carry Jeremy Reed’s Junior 2002 season, so I don’t have too much background info on him. I know that Reed spent his high school and college days in California, and would hit .336 in three seasons as a Dirtbag. He played on team USA in the summer of 2001, where he starred, leading the team with a .366 average.

    Swisher, thanks to old Ohio State profile pages, comes with more biographical information. He is the son of Steve Swisher, a Major League catcher, and grew up in Columbus, Ohio. He was three times named All-State in high school, and twice All-Conference as a running back/cornerback. At OSU, Swisher was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year after hitting .299 with ten home runs. His Sophomore Season, the switch-hitter would slug 15 home runs and bat .322 en route to his first All-Big Ten selection. He walked 60 times in 57 games, likely explaining Beane’s interest.

    As Juniors, the two had fairly similar seasons. Swisher hit .348/.470/.620 in 54 games, reaching base in all but one game. The year garnered his second All-Big Ten selection, and contained his first large stint of playing time in centerfield. Over in California, Reed was putting together a season worthy of an All-Big West selection. In 60 games, Jeremy hit .339/.433/.512, walking more than he struck out. Both teams were moderately successful, losing in the College World Series regionals.

    And now I want to touch on Granderson, of whom I have the least biographical information at all. I can tell you that in his Junior season at UIC, he hit .480/.559/.755, with more walks than strikeouts and 17 steals. He was top three in the Horizon League in every imaginable category, and won their batting race by .076 points. The flames emphatically won the Horizon crown, winning by nearly 100 percentage points.

    As seen by large differences in their ISOs, Swisher and Granderson showed considerably more power than their Californian counterpart. But, there is an explanation for that. Thanks to Boyd Nation, we can track the schedule strength the two universities faced that year, which may answer some questions. Long Beach State, which finished the year 21st in the nation, is ranked by Boyd as having had the 6th hardest schedule in 2002. Ohio State? Scroll down, down, down, and you’ll find the Buckeyes at 165. Keep scrolling, and you’ll find UIC at 229. To give a better understanding, that’s roughly the difference between facing San Diego State in every game, Tennessee Tech, or Florida A&M.

    While I’ll acknowledge that Nick Swisher was a better prospect coming out of college, the difference was less than 43 picks apart. Reed’s numbers had the misfortune of being the byproduct of a hard schedule in a hard stadium. Granderson had to be thought of the least of the three, despite insane rate statistics.

    Part Two: Meeting Professional Baseball

    Because of rather quick negotiations, these three players were able to get in another 210 at-bats in 2002, as professional players. Chicago sent Reed to the South Atlantic League, while Beane’s prized prospect split the year between short-season baseball, and the California League. It’s interesting that Swisher was not sent to low-A, like Reed, since Oakland’s affiliate is the organization’s only Midwest stop. But, the A’s took no middle ground, and kept Nick away from his roots. Granderson wasn’t thought to be advanced enough for full-season ball, so the Tigers let him play the whole season in the NYPL.

    Prospect evaluators will always tell you that a college player is supposed to beat up the short-season leagues, so to take their numbers with a grain of salt. Swisher played in 12 games for the Vancouver Canadians, and his .250/.433/.455 line made us wonder if on the opposite side, if we should worry when a player isn’t a huge force. But, an .888 OPS ain’t bad, and was convincing enough for A’s upper management to challenge the 21-year-old with a promotion to the California League.

    Instead it was Granderson destroying short-season baseball, over in the New York-Pennsylvania League. For the Oneota Tigers, Granderson hit .344/.417/.495 in 212 at-bats. His batting average was good for second in the league, and the UIC product was voted MVP. More importantly, Granderson also won the NYPL Stedler Award, given to the best prospect in the league. Finally, he had hit the prospect map, yet still too quiet for anyone to hear.

    Before skipping over low-A, let’s track Mr. Reed’s progress. Jeremy spent his entire 57 game season with the Kannapolis Intimidators, posting solid if not intimidating numbers. Showing more an aptitude for contact and doubles than his college counterpart, Reed hit .319/.377/.448 in his 210 at-bats. Furthermore, Reed stole 17 bases in 22 attempts, displaying intelligence that Dirtbags normally come with. Overall it was considered a solid season for the second round choice, definitely worthy of a 2003 promotion.

    Back to Swisher, who last time we checked was on a flight from Vancouver to Visalia. The California League proved troublesome for the first round choice, who kept up with his low average trend, hitting .240 in 183 at-bats. His 26 walks boosted his on-base percentage to a respectable .340, and a decent ISO (.159) kept his slugging right around .400. That season Swisher struck out 59 times in 62 games (total), showing a trend of many K’s that has yet to leave. Contact was the problem.

    So, was it too early to call Reed the better prospect? Yes, since Swisher had played much of his season in the more advanced league despite less numbers. And where does Granderson fit in? Still last, as college players in the NYPL have certain expectations. Scouting reports declaring the Buckeye superior still held strong, and Swisher’s promise was enough to rank him higher.

    Part Three: Splitting Time

    And then came 2003. Reed’s year last season was well documented, and worthy of my player of the year award. Jeremy began the year in the Carolina League, and earned a mid-season promotion after a .333/.431/.477 line and extensive hitting streak. While AA often is a wall challenging players and separating the real from the ordinary, Reed was unfazed by the Southern League. In 66 games, Reed hit an astounding .409/.474/.581 and was Birmingham’s best player. For the season, Jeremy walked 70 times versus only 36 strikeouts, and stole 45 bases. Reed had arrived in a way we hadn’t seen before, and captured the hearts of sabermetric followers everywhere.

    But, the same group of people didn’t forget about Nick Swisher, their lost love. Swisher began the season where he had ended in 2002, and showed fabulous improvements. He posted the best average (.296) and slugging (.550) of his career, as well as a gaudy .418 on-base percentage. He was promoted to AA, where he repeated his actions of 2002, falling apart. Swisher’s line was slightly worse than it had been as a first-time California League hitter in 2002. He struck out 76 times in 76 Texas League games, while posting the worst OBP (.324) of his career.

    Granderson didn’t have the gaudy numbers of Reed or high praise like Swisher, not even gaining enough attention to land that promotion. Instead, the Tigers left Curtis to spend the full season, his first, in the Florida State League. He produced well, hitting .286/.365/.458 in just under 500 at-bats. He stole ten bases and had fifty extra-base hits, prompting Baseball Prospectus (2004) to write this about him:


    Granderson answered the doubts that come with playing at a small-time college program [University of Illinois-Chicago] by holding his own in the Florida State League in his first full pro season. Asked to be a stopgap in center field, he played so well that the Tigers now think he can reach the majors without moving to a corner. He’s the sort of low-ceiling, tools-indifferent player that helps win ballgames by hitting the snot out of the ball for a few years in the majors.

    Obviously the 2003 season saw Reed leapfrog Swisher and establish himself as the best prospect of the three. Swisher was probably slighted more for his AA problems than he should have been, but still well ahead of Granderson. Curtis was a nice story and a small prospect, but little more.

    Part Four: To Infiniti And Beyond

    UIC’s golden boy changed things this season, making his voice heard. With a 20-game stretch in August where the Tiger hit .452-10-30 (thanks Kevin), Granderson emerged as one of the game’s better outfield prospects. He missed my midseason top 100, mostly because on July 6, he was hitting .269! The late season surge gave him a line of .303/.407/.515 with 14 steals. But remember that Erie is a hitter’s paradise, with annual park factors around 1050.

    Moving from AA to the AAA ranks, we find Reed and Swisher. Obviously the White Sox found Reed’s numbers worthy of a promotion, but were unimpressed with the results. In Charlotte, Reed hit .275/.357/.420 as the White Sox gradually lost confidence in him. That, mixed with Joe Borchard having a successful season, led to Reed’s inclusion in a deal to the Seattle Mariners. In the PCL Reed was back up to his old tricks, hitting .305/.366/.455. He stole 25 bases on the season, and struck out just 56 times in 509 at-bats. While it’s hard to say he will suffer a freefall on prospect lists, let’s just say Baseball Prospectus won’t have him at #2 this time around.

    And finally, we have Nick Swisher’s best season to date. Swisher established himself for a true MVP candidate, hitting .269/.406/.537 for Sacramento. His power realization is huge for his prospect status, and speaks well for his Rookie of 2005 chances. Furthermore, you have to give Nick some props for topping 100 walks, as the last time I remember that in the minors, it was from Jack Cust. Basically, Swisher’s 2004 numbers speak to me as what his peak in the Majors could be, or at least what Beane dreams for late at night.

    So, how do we rank them now? Well, it’s hard to say. Reed was in front so far before the season, but to me has regressed to a .290/.360/.440 type of player. An .800 OPS is nothing to be ashamed of, but it isn’t fantastic for a corner outfielder. Granderson on the other hand, might not have to move to the corners. I’m afraid to fully buy into his numbers, because they were so juiced by a 20-25 game stretch in a large hitter’s park. Actually, a see Curtis as a poor man’s, faster Nick Swisher. So, I’ll pony up: Swisher, Reed, Granderson, but this time separated by a lot less than 64 picks.

    I want to conclude today talking about the future of these three. All three were given cups of coffee, though Granderson’s only currently includes an 0/4 night on Monday. Reed can’t boast much more, amassing two hits in nine at-bats, though both coming within his last four appearances. Leading the plate appearances stat is Nick Swisher, playing right field for the injured Jermaine Dye. And the young player, like he has in the past, is struggling making contact at a promoted level. But .207/.378/.483 ain’t bad, and I suspect PECOTA will like his chances in 2005.

    2005 will surely bring a job for Swisher, as Dye’s days in Oakland are fading. He’ll be one of the primary frontrunners for the ROY, a race that I suspect will have more juice than this year’s version. Nook Logan and Alex Sanchez are acting as blocks for Granderson, unless he moves to a corner. My guess is Sanchez will be dealt, Logan given the Opening Day job, with Granderson getting summoned from AAA around when Grady Sizemore was brought up. Reed will wait to see who Bill Bavasi signs before leasing an apartment, but it very well may be in Seattle.

    We knew Swisher from Moneyball. We knew Reed from 2003. Here’s Curtis Granderson, speeding in on their tails. Check back in 5 years, because then I’m pretty sure you’ll know all three.

    WTNYSeptember 13, 2004
    Los Tres Enemigos
    By Bryan Smith

    Before beginning this article, I urge you to head over to Hardball Times, which is featuring a special guest columnist. Very special.

    For some reason or another, I like to group players together. If two players go through the same levels, at the same ages, with the same position, I track their developments forever. It creates ease when comparing prospects, and makes identifying which is superior simple. In 2002, I had a chance to do that when three teenage outfield prospects had 147, 181 and 216 at-bats across five short-season leagues. All three, while raw, looked like they had immense potential.

    But, let me say, two are more similar than the third. Two of them were born within 22 days of each other, in January of 1984. Both played high school baseball in Georgia, at high schools less than one hour from each other. Both were picked in the first round of the 2002 draft, to southern organizations, and signed bonuses within $90K of one another. Interestingly enough, while sporting near identical biographical resumes, the two have seldom played, competing in just a few low-A games.

    And then there is the third. Born thirteen months after Jeff Francoeur and Jeremy Hermida, Felix Pie was signed straight out of the Dominican Republic. His story is an odd one, as the Cubs literally ran into his talent. While hosting a tryout near Pie’s hometown, Cubs scout Jose Serra asked the uninvited Pie to play. One thing led to another, and Pie’s career began only months before those of Francoeur and Hermida. And from then on, I’ve always pieced the three together.

    Today, I want to evaluate and compare the progress of these three. Starting with short-season ball, the three have almost always been in equal levels, excusing a three at-bat stint in AAA by Hermida (2003) and a late season promotion to AA for Francoeur this season. And now we look how the Braves, Marlins, and Cubs are building superstars…

    Step One (2002): Short-Season Baseball

    As I’ve already said, Felix Pie’s professional baseball career began first, starring in the Arizona League as a 17-year-old. In 55 games, the outfielder hit .321/.385/.569, with seventeen steals in 25 attempts. Much of his high slugging percentage came from his speed, as he hit thirteen triples and only four home runs. Over the course of 218 at-bats, the left-handed Pie walked 21 times and struck out on 47 occasions. At the end of the season, Chicago promoted Pie to the Northwest League, where Felix went 1/8 in two games.

    Meanwhile, Jeremy Hermida had begun his career in the Gulf Coast League. Things did not go well for the 18-year-old, as Hermida hit .224/.316/.321 in 134 at-bats. But, Hermida did show a bit of polish, stealing five bases (0 CS) with a 15/25 BB/K. Florida had enough confidence in their first pick to move him to the New York-Penn League, where Jeremy played in thirteen games. During that time, Hermida hit .319/.407/.404 in 47 at-bats. So overall, the 2002 season saw a line of .249/.340/.343 from that June’s 11th overall choice.

    And finally, we have the 23rd overall choice, Mr. Francoeur. After starring for Parkview High School in their 5A state championship, the Braves decided to have their first rounder bypass the Gulf Coast League and move up to the Appalachian League. This proved to be the right decision, as the 18-year-old had a .327/.395/.585 line in 147 at-bats. Jeff also walked 15 times, had 34 strikeouts, and was 8/13 in stolen bases.

    So, after 2002, it would have looked like we would rank the three Francoeur, then Pie, and finally Hermida. But before crowning those as the official rankings, I want to look at some park factors. My 2004 Baseball Prospectus doesn’t have park factors, but says Francoeur’s Danville Braves had a 2002 factor of 961, and Hermida’s Jamestown Jammers had a factor of 1048. So, while it appeared Hermida salvaged his 2002 season with some good stats in the NYPL, he did get some help. The order of Francoeur, Pie, Hermida stands.

    Step Two (2003): Low-A

    Next, the three competitors tried their hands at full-season baseball. Francoeur and Hermida would finally face off in the South Atlantic League, while Pie played in the Midwest League. The latter two played in fairly neutral parks, but Francoeur’s park factor was 956, drastically favoring pitchers. So, we should take that with a grain of salt.

    All these teenagers would hit in the .280s in 2002, with Pie at .285, Hermida at .284, and the Atlanta outfielder trailing at .281. All were a threat on the bases, with Jeremy stealing 28/30, Jeff swiping 14/20, and Felix showing raw speed with 19/32. But the separation comes in the extra-base hits department, where Francoeur’s 49 trounces the 35 and 34 that Pie and Hermida would put up.

    Jeremy showed the most polish, with his defense, speed, and discipline (80BB). Pie was still extremely raw, as seen by both his 59% success rate on the bases and his low .388 slugging. Finally, Francoeur showed the most realization of power, though walked only 30 times in 524 at-bats. At that point, it was really a toss-up whether Hermida (.780 OPS) or Francoeur (.770 OPS) was the better prospect. A good evaluator would probably go with the Brave, since displaying power is more telling than polish. Youth would be last here, as Pie needed to mediocre .734 OPS would be ranked third.

    Step Three (2004): High-A

    Before this season, all three of these players were lucky enough to be relatively overshadowed by other prospects. Atlanta and Chicago both have extremely deep systems, which allowed Franceour and Pie to fly under the radar. Hermida opened the season as the Marlins’ best prospects, but only because Miguel Cabrera spent the final two months of 2003 in the Majors. So while lofty expectations often bog down big prospects, this group has avoided the hype that should guide them.

    It would now be Pie and Hermida’s turn to face off, and they would six times during the year. A strained hamstring forced Hermida to miss many games, and the injury should also be blamed for a decline of playing time in center and stolen bases. He stole only ten, but still showed polish by only being caught three times. Jeremy also showed more power promise than ever, hitting .297/.377/.441 in a slight pitcher’s park.

    Speaking of pitcher’s park, Jeff Francoeur was forced to spend most of his season in one of the minor’s worst: Myrtle Beach. But it did little to slow down the 20-year-old, who hit .293/.346/.508 in the Carolina League. Like Hermida, the fellow Georgian spent a considerable portion of the season on the DL. But Jeff’s injury was more freakish, as he was hit in the face with a ball while squaring up for a bunt. Shortly after returning, the Braves promoted their prized outfielder to AA. He proved not ready, hitting .197/.197/.342 in 76 at-bats. That’s right, ZERO walks in 76 at-bats.

    Finally, we have Pie. Unlike the first two, the stadium Pie played in has been historically ranked as a slight hitter’s park. Pie played well, starting to turn his raw talent into something. Pie’s batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging all jumped. He stole 32 bases, but again was caught stealing a lot (18 times). Baseball America ranked him as the Florida State League’s best defensive outfielder, signaling a possible future move for Corey Patterson. What also went up were Pie’s strikeouts, as he struck out 18 more times in 74 less at-bats.

    How do you rank them now? Well, the three are closer than ever, though it still seems Francoeur is on top. Rather than a Francoeur vs. Hermida argument, this season should feature Hermida vs. Pie arguments. My edge would go to Hermida, who matched Pie in average, slugging, while topping him in on-base percentage. Dave Cameron predicted in a recent interview that Hermida would breakout next season, especially in the power department.

    Step Four: What’s Next

    For the first time, 2005 will be a time for Jeremy Hermida, Felix Pie and Jeff Francoeur to be in one league together. The Southern League has favored pitching dramatically of late, though the Georgia outfielders will be playing in historically neutral parks. I can almost guarantee that Pie and Francoeur will spend the entire 2005 season in AA, though the Marlins may be the most aggressive.

    Juan Pierre and Sammy Sosa will be free agents after 2005, possibly opening spots for Hermida and Pie. I expect Hermida to either follow the David Wright or Jason Kubel timetables, depending on when Florida calls up the then 21-year-old. Pie will likely spend 2006 in AAA, with a possible mid-season promotion a la Alexis Rios. The Braves have an outfield spot waiting for Francoeur, though it won’t be the centerfield spot he’s always called home.

    Barring injury, I don’t question that these three players will all be in the National League by 2007. Each should be great, though Hermida needs more power, Pie more polish and Francoeur more discipline. But age tends to help all three of those attributes, so I expect them all to start sliding towards stardom. And who knows, maybe my grouping will be grouped in the 2010 NL All-Star team together?

    WTNYSeptember 10, 2004
    Changes?
    By Bryan Smith

    A colleague of mine has made a suggestion for my site, one that I am contemplating deeply. Fresh off being overwhelmed by a second round of team-by-team top tens, this friend suggested a change of focus here. Rather than attempt to give extremely broad views of the minors, it was suggested I narrow my focus. Have a top 40, 50, 60 prospects, and zero in on each of them.

    You see, it’s almost impossible to have a single, successful broad view of the minor leagues. It’s likely Brad Dowdy, Dave Cameron or the guys at Future Sox could give you better top tens for their teams than I. Working with limited information, I’m forced to rank prospects singularly on their statistics. Often times this results in very wrong choices for my top ten, which I want to avoid completely. With a more concise focus, this wouldn’t be true. I would work on getting scouting reports, interviews and statistical breakdowns of each player.

    Now, this wouldn’t end my broad interest, as I’ll still look for sleepers, finding the next guys to break my list. I could even start paying better attention to college baseball, again with a narrow focus. Just think more of this kind of article, less of this.

    But I’m not ready to make a decision without readership intervention. I want your opinion, your thoughts on why you read this site. What could make it better, what would interest you more? If you are reading this, please comment.

    WTNYSeptember 08, 2004
    System Rankings, ALC edition
    By Bryan Smith

    And finally, I have a computer. It’s great to be on-line today, catching up on everything I’ve missed in the last couple of weeks. So, I’ll be back to a thrice-a-week schedule, starting today.

    Someone finally called me on my bluff. I did the AL West prospect rankings a few weeks back, and then proceeded to take a break. But don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about it. Today I’ll get back on the horse, and profile the American League Central. The division isn’t exactly chock-full-o-prospects, and none of the teams have fantastic depth.

    I’ll lead off with the team-by-team breakdowns, and remember, it goes best system to worst. At the end,

    Minnesota Twins
    1. Jason Kubel
    2. J.D. Durbin
    3. Jesse Crain
    4. Scott Baker
    5. Francisco Liriano
    6. Jason Bartlett
    7. Glen Perkins
    8. Justin Jones
    9. Alex Romero
    10. Scott Tyler

    Terry Ryan doesn’t use the sabermetric approach to drafting that some would love, but he gets it done. While sometimes picks like B.J. Garbe and Denard Span turn out terrible, no team has received more production from their system in recent years. With a limited budget, the Twins can’t afford the system going dry.

    Don’t worry. Not only do the Twins have a fantastic scouting department, but their own depth builds more depth. Joe Mauer’s quick ascent to the Majors allowed the trade of A.J. Pierzynski, netting not only Joe Nathan, but Francisco Liriano as well. Justin Morneau was behind the Doug Mientkiewicz trade, scoring the Twins the talented Justin Jones. Finally, the #6 prospect on this list was acquired for Brian Buchanon, just another outfielder in a then-loaded system.

    Jason Kubel will allow the Twins to pull that same move again. Expect the Twins to trade Jacque Jones this winter, allowing an outfield of Lew Ford, Torii Hunter, and Kubel, with Shannon Stewart at DH. Jason Bartlett allows the Twins to let Guzman walk, saving money for the inevitable re-signing of Brad Radke. And next year, J.D. Durbin will begin to fortify what was a weak rotation in 2004.

    Finally, let me point two things. First of all, Glen Perkins ranks up there with Thomas Diamond as having the best debuts after being chosen in the draft. The University of Minnesota alum was pushed to the Midwest League, where he sparkled in nine starts. The rest of the draft went well, with no one even touching Perkins territory. And lastly, let me introduce Alex Romero. A switch-hitting Venezuelan outfielder, Romero has more walks than strikeouts since signing in 2001. While power isn’t his strong suit, his 2004 line in the Florida State League (.292/.387/.405) is very similar to Kubel’s at the same age (.298/.361/.400). My 2005 sleeper pick of the year…Alex Romero.

    Cleveland Indians
    1. Michael Aubrey
    2. Franklin Gutierrez
    3. Adam Miller
    4. Ryan Garko
    5. Andrew Brown
    6. Brad Snyder
    7. Fausto Carmona
    8. Ryan Goleski
    9. Jeremy Sowers
    10. Dan Cevette

    What was recently the game’s most powerful system is suffering a bit of a dry spell, though still showing signs of life. The 2001 draft, where Cleveland loaded up on pitchers Dan Denham, J.D. Martin, Jake Dittler, has gone terribly. ‘Solid’ prospects like Carmona and Fernando Cabrera have fallen apart. But, the 2003 draft has come as a solace for 2001, with Shapiro drafting Aubrey, Snyder and Adam Miller. He’s made some solid trades, and is busily trying to fill the few holes left on his Major League roster.

    One of those will be Ryan Garko, who exploded on the prospect map this season. Garko is very similar to Matt LeCroy, a fringe catcher with fantastic power. I meant be tempted to say Josh Phelps, who the Indians just acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays. Garko will be ready for the 2006 season, but Aubrey and Hafner will be filling the 1B/DH roles. While he might slate in as a platoon player/back up catcher for awhile, a smart organization will pluck Garko out of this system very soon. He’s not Ryan Howard-type trade bait, but he’s good.

    Chicago White Sox
    1. Brandon McCarthy
    2. Brian Anderson
    3. Chris Young
    4. Kris Honel
    5. Ryan Sweeney
    6. Josh Fields
    7. Orionny Lopez
    8. Francisco Hernandez
    9. Gio Gonzalez
    10. Antoin Gray

    When Ken Williams traded Jeremy Reed to acquire Freddy Garcia, I looked to the Sox system and saw nothing. Brian Anderson was putting together a nice season in the Carolina League, but Kris Honel was hurt and Ryan Sweeney had fallen on his face. What was once ranked Baseball America’s top system was decimated, possibly last in the Majors. And then the Brandon McCarthy show began…it hasn’t stopped yet.

    I don’t know what to make of McCarthy, whether he is the next Black Jack or simply a right-handed Joe Kennedy. Hell, he could be another Jon Rauch. The White Sox are sure trying to make him that, pitching him in excess of 170 innings this year. Plain and simple, that should be illegal. Tell him nice season, and to shut it down until the AFL, where he can get his extra 25 innings. But don’t send him to AA, c’mon. Didn’t you learn something from Rauch, and now Honel?

    What I also don’t understand is taking Orionny Lopez and Ryan Rodriguez, enjoying modest seasons in the Sally League, and promoting them to AAA. Hopefully someone could explain this to me, because I can’t understand why anyone would challenge a 21-year-old this much. Doesn’t the scouting director know anything in excess is bad?

    And like I did with the Twins, let me close with a comment on the draft, and then a sleeper. Gio Gonzalez, a southpaw from Florida, should also be chalked up for having a stellar debut. Josh Fields was decent in the Carolina League, but Gonzalez absolutely dominated short-season league, and should be ready for full-season ball next year. My sleeper? Francisco Hernandez. The 18-year-old, switch-hitting catcher, was promoted to the Sally League late after a .326/.372/.492 line in Bristol. It’s too early to start calling anyone the next Victor Martinez, but just keep your eye on Hernandez.

    Kansas City Royals
    1. Justin Huber
    2. Denny Bautista
    3. Ruben Gotay
    4. Mark Teahen
    5. Donnie Murphy
    6. Billy Butler
    7. Chris Lubanski
    8. Mitch Maier
    9. Dusty Hughes
    10. Jason Kaanoi

    Riddle me this: how in the Hell could the Royals have received more for Jose Bautista and Jason Grimsley than Carlos Beltran? Easy answer: Jim Duquette and the puppets running Baltimore. While Mark Teahen is a nice prospect, his slow development rate pales in comparison to Justin Huber and Denny Bautista. They also have to love how strong Ruben Gotay has come on, earning himself a job for 2005.

    Down the list, I want to point on Donnie Murphy, who Baseball America recently likened to Marcus Giles. I always loved the Atlanta 2B, so for some reason this comparison rubbed me the wrong way. I asked myself, what was Marcus Giles doing as a 21-year-old? Answer: hitting .326 with 54 walks and a .513 slugging in the Carolina League. Murphy is also in the CL, but hitting .255/.325/.406. This isn’t to say he isn’t a prospect, just that he’s no Giles.

    While I’ve talked about impressive performances from Thomas Diamond, Glen Perkins or Gio Gonzalez, a hitter has yet to come up. Until…Billy Butler. Another Floridian, Butler was touted with big power out of high school, similar to Midwest League MVP Brian Dopirak. On the opposite side of the diamond, Butler dominated the Arizona League, hitting .373/.488/.596 in 260 at-bats. First Zack Greinke came from Florida, then Butler. I think the Royals might be parking their scouting department there. Hey, it worked for Atlanta only one state up.

    Detroit Tigers
    1. Curtis Granderson
    2. Tony Giarratano
    3. Ryan Raburn
    4. Kyle Sleeth
    5. Kenny Baugh
    6. Kody Kirkland
    7. Justin Verlander
    8. Preston Larrison
    9. David Espinosa
    10. Jay Sborz

    Last and least are the Detroit Tigers, whose horrendous depth forced me to place them here. While I like both Granderson and Giarratano, both locks for top 50 spots, nothing else is too fantastic. Raburn should be the 2006 second basemen, and Sleeth could break out at any point. Kenny Baugh has always been a favorite of mine, and I still think he could turn into something special. Kody Kirkland’s full-season debut wasn’t beautiful, but a little more contact could go a long way.

    While I summarized #1-6 that quick, I want to talk about #8, David Espinosa. The 23rd overall pick in the 2000 draft, Espinosa was terrible for the Cincinnati Reds before being traded for Brian Moehler. Moved off shortstop, the switch-hitting centerfielder enjoyed a solid season in AA. While only batting .264, Espinosa had 80 walks, 20 steals, and matched his previous career home run total with 19. Oh yeah, and he’s still 22. A little more contact, and the Tigers walked right into a blue-chip prospect.

    And that’s it. But for fun, I decided to also piece together a top-ten prospect list from the AL Central. It reads:

    1. Jason Kubel- OF
    2. Curtis Granderson- OF
    3. Brandon McCarthy- SP
    4. Michael Aubrey- 1B
    5. Franklin Gutierrez- OF
    6. Justin Huber- C
    7. Tony Giarratano- SS
    8. J.D. Durbin- SP
    9. Adam Miller- SP
    10. Jesse Crain- RP

    And since I didn’t give this treatment to the AL West, I’m staunchly against media bias, here’s their top 10:

    1. Felix Hernandez- SP
    2. Casey Kotchman- 1B
    3. Dallas McPherson- 3B
    4. Omar Quintanilla- SS
    5. Ian Kinsler- SS
    6. Travis Blackley- SP
    7. Ervin Santana- SP
    8. John Danks- SP
    9. Jeremy Reed- OF
    10. Jairo Garcia- RP

    Last in this system ranking process is a cumulative ranking of the two divisions I have done so far. If you’ll remember, I put the AL West in the order of: Anaheim, Seattle, Texas, and Oakland. And now, when put together:

    1. Anaheim
    2. Minnesota
    3. Seattle
    4. Texas
    5. Cleveland
    6. Oakland
    7. White Sox
    8. Kansas City
    9. Detroit

    Yikes for the AL Central. I should note this piece has been written 11 at-bats into Nick Swisher’s career, where his OPS is currently over 1.100. Oakland will surely be saving a spot for him in their 2005 outfield, who has a decent chance at leading that team in on-base percentage. But last time I checked, that doesn’t win you any Rookie of the Year awards. But hey, Bobby Crosby has that average up to .252…

    Speaking of debuts, I have a few to mention. Scott Kazmir made his third start, losing to the Detroit Tigers. In five innings, Kazmir allowed four hits, four runs, and walked six. While his seven strikeouts were impressive, Kazmir’s strike/total pitches percentage must increase. It did for Jeff Francis, who held San Francisco scoreless for five and one-third innings for his first Major League victory. Gavin Floyd is 1/1 in that department, as he contributed to the current Mets losing streak with a September 3 victory over the Amazins. Floyd scattered four hits and one run in seven innings, and left viewers drooling with his curve. Finally, the aforementioned Jason Kubel will be on the Twins postseason roster, which looks like a good decision after he began his career 2/7 with a double.

    I’m currently on the sixth page of my Word document, wondering why I’m still typing. You probably are too. I’ll stop now.

    WTNYSeptember 02, 2004
    Rooks
    By Bryan Smith

    WTNY favorite Jeff Francis made his second start Tuesday night, and like Scott Kazmir, struggled badly. Unlike the Devil Ray, Francis never had a good first start, leaving his season ERA at 13.50. Both pitchers have been terribly inefficient since reaching the Majors, as Francis threw 97 pitches in only 4 1/3 innings. To make matters worse, only 52 pitches were strikes. This is not the pattern of success, and must change for Francis to succeed.

    Overall, the San Francisco Giants knocked Francis for seven hits, eight runs and four walks in his 4+ innings of work. Again, his strikeout numbers looked good, which convinces me speaks of future success. But both Marquis Grissom and Yorvit Torrealba hit home runs off Francis, totaling five for the season. Let’s just say, this does not seem positive for a Rockie.

    The intense struggles that Kazmir and Francis endured made me realize that rookie pitchers are not doing well this season. Seattle has seen horrible performances from highly touted pitchers Clint Nageotte and Travis Blackley, destroying perceptions of both. I’m convinced that players so unanimously highly thought of won’t all fail, and just will feature slower learning patters than most.

    So I went back to my preseason prospect rankings, and looked at all the pitchers that have debuted in the Majors this season. It totals nine, the four that I’ve mentioned plus Edwin Jackson, Zack Greinke, John Van Benschoten, Merkin Valdez and Ryan Wagner. When combined, the totals are not impressive…

    13-23 5.97 ERA 10.23 H/9 6.17 K/9 1.48 K/BB

    This 'player' would have the third worst ERA in the Majors, right ahead of Jose Acevedo and Shawn Estes. The peripherals are similar to Brett Myers, who has an ERA about a half run lower. 5.50 is about more where these players seem to stand, but disastrous performances by Blackley and Valdez skew the numbers. No matter what, they show that pitchers need to have a large learning curve when coming into the Majors.

    But what about the hitters? From my preseason top 50, ten hitters have played in the Majors...

    Bobby Crosby
    Alexis Rios
    Jason Bay
    Scott Hairston
    Justin Morneau
    David Wright
    Casey Kotchman
    Joe Mauer
    Grady Sizemore
    B.J. Upton

    This list doesn't include Khalil Greene, the Padres shortstop that missed my top 50 but will likely win the NL Rookie of the Year. If only Jason Bay hadn't missed time and had more exposure, I wouldn't be looking quite so bad. But when combining these ten seasons, I get...

    .272/.336/.468 in 2087 AB

    To put this into perspective, an .804 OPS would slot in between Alfonso Soriano and Torii Hunter for the 84th best total in baseball. Actually, these numbers are very similar to Hunter's, the Twins centerfielder currently making $8 million a season. While I would hope a group this highly touted would be better than that, an .804 OPS is considerably better than a 5.97 ERA.

    So, why are hitters adjusting that much better to Major League pitching?

    The most obvious reason is age. The ten hitters average age is 22.4, while the pitchers are at 21.7. Three of the nine pitchers can't consume alcohol, compared to only one hitter. And furthermore, three of the hitters main contributors had Major League experience (Crosby, Morneau, Bay), while only two pitchers even had cups of coffee. Bay and Morneau each had almost 100 at-bats, and the two alone supply almost half of the group's 82 home runs.

    Well, I got even more curious, wanting to know which rookie pitchers are succeeding. Turns out...not too many. Only five pitchers with five starts have ERAs under 4.95, one of which is Zack Greinke. The other four: Bobby Madritsch, Noah Lowry, Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard. So I went back to 2003, and looked if there was anything telling in their numbers that would help in projectability.

    First of all, this is a very interesting group. Madritsch is an Independent League pick-up in his late twenties, and Lowry is turning things around at an old age as well. Cabrera spent last season in the Sally League, and Bedard pitched only 19.1 innings. Their ERAs were all over, from 3.63 to 4.24 to 4.72. The H/9, K/9 and K/BB stats were all inconsistent. What wasn't? HR/9. Bobby Madritsch allowed 11 home runs in 158.2 innings, Lowry gave up 7 in 118.1, Cabrera allowed 6 in 125.1, and Bedard surrendered one in 19.1 innings pitched. And it's also fair to include Zack Greinke, who allowed ten in 140 innings of work.

    In the very least, this little exercise further verifies Dayn Perry's expirament that showed importance in HR/9. These five pitchers gave up a combined 35 home runs in 2003, despite pitching in more than 560 innings.

    When preparing for your fantasy draft next year, my advice to you is to check some minor league HR/9 numbers, you just might find a diamond in the rough.

    WTNYAugust 30, 2004
    My Kind of Notes
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, I would not suggest to any reader to buy a Dell. After ordering my computer almost a month ago, I'm expecting the computer to come any day now. Three weeks late, forcing me to use a friend's computer to stay afloat in blogdom. Yikes.

    - After writing about the possibility of Stephen Drew returning to Florida State University, Baseball America reported that the Diamondbacks upped their offer for the star shortstop. My guess is that Drew will sign in the neighborhood of $5 million, meaning another victory for Scott Boras. I still don't see the advantage of signing amateurs to Major League contracts, especially due to the Wily Mo Pena factor. Oh wait, he's not a valid example anymore.

    If Drew does sign, the Diamondbacks have more decision-making with their first pick next year. Upton would appear to be the logical pick, though Sergio Santos and Drew already provide a lot of shortstop depth. But because both Santos and Drew have been questioned on defense, it's still very likely that Justin Upton will be playing in Phoenix before too long.

    - Here's a quick update on the top ten picks of the 2004 amateur draft:

    1. Matt Bush- .181/.302/.236 in 72 AZL AB
    2. Justin Verlander- Unsigned
    3. Phillip Humber- Unsigned
    4. Jeff Niemann- Unsigned
    5. Mark Rogers- 0-3 4.73 30/26.2 34/14 (AZL)
    6. Jeremy Sowers- Just Signed
    7. Homer Bailey- 0-1 4.38 14/12.1 9/3 (AZL)
    8. Wade Townsend- Unsigned
    9. Chris Nelson- .339/.438/.492 in 124 PIO AB
    10. Thomas Diamond- 1-0 1.69 12/26.2 36/6 (MID)

    San Diego's justification for Matt Bush is becoming less and less credible, with Bush showing talent and character issues within two months of being drafted. Diamond looks like the best choice, and could reach the Majors by 2006 if handled correctly. But Jamey Newberg recently pointed out in e-mail that with Fuson leaving, the workload of Texas prospects has increased. That's bad news for Diamond, Danks and Hudgins.

    There is a reason the four unsigned players are college pitchers: they are college pitchers. All four had hefty workloads, and as Kenny Baugh will tell you, Rice pitchers could always use the extra time off. Negotiations with these four will likely heat up in early September, so they could make stops in the Instructional League before shutting it down.

    - Memo to Mets fans: keep your heads up. First, Yusmeiro Petit has shown no sign of slowing down, and has now been promoted to AA. Petit's first start looked like his Sally League lines: four hits, no walks, ten strikeouts in seven innings. Only Jose Capellan has seen a rise like Petit, moving up three levels in one season. Over at the Raindrops, Avkash posted a scouting report one of his readers gave him. Good stuff, and if minor league viewers ever want to talk about players, please let this site be your venue. With respect to Lastings Milledge, there is really no question that Petit is the Mets top player.

    As if the Mets needed more reason to be happy, Scott Kazmir was lit up in his second start as a Major Leaguer. The A's had nine hits off the 20-year-old in only three innings, as Kazmir allowed five earned runs while striking out only two. His problem isn't stuff, it's location. This is why after looking at the first start of Kazmir, and the first of Jeff Francis, I had to predict more success for the latter. Kazmir's control problems continued, and again not in the form of walks, but too many pitches. Tampa's prodigy threw 71 pitches in three innings, largely because he had only 48 strikes.

    And finally, as my friend breathes down my neck, is my current top 5:

    1. Andy Marte
    2. Felix Hernandez
    3. Delmon Young
    4. Dallas McPherson
    5. Matt Cain

    Discuss.

    WTNYAugust 26, 2004
    Wait 'Til Next June
    By Bryan Smith

    According to Baseball America, it is likely the Arizona Diamondbacks first-round pick, Stephen Drew, will opt to return to Florida State University. Drew was unanimously ranked as one of the draft's top two prospects, and Dave Cameron put him first in an interview Monday. While scouts disagree on whether Drew will stick at shortstop, none doubt his athleticism or his bat.

    This is not the first time Drew has seen the draft shaken up, as his brother J.D. did not sign with the Philadelphia Phillies in 1997. Instead, Drew spent a year in the Independent League before signing with the St. Louis Cardinals. Stephen has a year of eligibility left, and met FSU officials on registering for his senior season. Not only would this completely shake up the 2005 NCAA rankings, but next June's draft as well.

    Baseball's latest Collective Bargaining Agreement contains changes in the amateur draft, which will be first set in place next June. The most notable is the abolishment of the alternating draft order, instead borrowing the NFL's 'worst to first' policy. While Detroit was far and away the league's worst team in 2003, San Diego held the first choice because it was the NL's season. Under the new rules, Detroit would have chosen first, likely still selecting Justin Verlander. So, who is in line for the 2005 first pick.

    A look at the game's worst win percentages:

    Arizona (.305)
    Kansas City (.355)
    Seattle (.368)
    Toronto (.414)
    Montreal (.425)
    Colorado (.437)
    Milwaukee (.440)

    Ironically, the league-worst Diamondbacks will have the first stab at selecting Drew. This is highly unlikely, notably due to bad blood developed during negotiations, but rivalry between Jeff Moorad and Scott Boras as well. Moorad has just recently given up his status of 'power agent', for a new role atop the Diamondbacks. Once battling for clients with Boras, it's doubtful Moorad will venture into dollar and cents arguments with his once-rival anytime soon.

    Now seems to be the perfect time to introduce Justin Upton, B.J.'s younger and talented brother. The only junior on Baseball America's All-American team, Upton was the unquestioned top amateur until these Drew developments. But with the Diamondbacks likely holding the draft's first choice, Upton should still be projected to go #1. While Arizona already has a good SS prospect in Sergio Santos, the expectations of him outgrowing the position, coupled with Upton's talent make that projection a no-brainer.

    Drew's sensational junior season was not enough to win the Golden Spikes Award, the NCAA's equivalent to the MVP. Instead, the award went to Jered Weaver, Long Beach State ace and All-Baseball favorite. With a return to college ball, Drew immediately become's the 2005 favorite. Previous winners include Rickie Weeks and Khalil Greene, which convey Drew's skill well.

    In my mind, the Seminole will have two or three contenders for that top spot. Two Pac-10 sluggers, USC's Jeff Clement and Stanford's John Mayberry Jr., should challenge Drew. The third is Wichita State right-hander Mike Pelfrey. Baseball America's top-rated college player, Pelfrey was interviewed at THT this past spring. Finally, I should mention that North Carolina sophomore Andrew Miller could emerge as the ACC's best talent. The 6-6 power southpaw had a great summer in the Cape Cod League, and enters this season as the 2006 top prospect.

    Mayberry, who also has Major League pedigree, presents an interesting draft scenario as well. Out of high school, Mayberry had huge bonus demands, using his Stanford scholarship as leverage. Pre-draft rumors of this led the Kansas City Royals to re-think drafting him, instead selecting some pitcher named Zack Greinke. Mayberry fell to #28, where he wound up not signing with the Seattle Mariners. Curiously enough, if the regular season ended today, the Royals and Mariners would have the #2 and 3 picks in the '05 draft, respectively.

    Frugal Daniel Glass, Kansas City's owner, is not known for paying up in the amateur draft. In fact, the Royals are often bound to select 'cheap' players in the first round, often at the cost of talent. So, unless Glass has a change of philosophy overnight, it's highly unlikely the Royals would draft Stephen Drew. My guess is the club will select a player from the Midwest, such as Pelfrey or Nebraska's Alex Gordon.

    So, that leaves the Mariners to Stephen Drew. Seattle, who paid record third-round money for Matt Tuiasosopo, isn't likely to have dollar concerns. Despite modest depth at the shortstop position, selecting a highly athletic, versatile player like Drew still fits. In my mind, only one thing can stop Stephen from becoming a Mariner: himself. Brother J.D. has often expressed a strong preference for the South, and if Stephen agrees, it could be a snag in the signing process. But as a recent poster at U.S.S. Mariner mentioned, maybe this situation could be a selling point for J.D., guaranteeing his brother would fall in the same organization?

    Next on the draft stop are Blue Jays, who have taken a terrible season to a top five finish. You know Riccardi will be thinking college here, so I wanted to mention a few possibilities. J.P. chose a college infielder with his first two first-round picks, and could be interested in Tyler Greene in 2005. The Yellow Jacket has better defense than Drew, and a bat that has begun to raise eyebrows this summer. Another possibility is Jeff Clement, though the last USC catcher drafted in the top ten was Eric Munson. Riccardi might also like versatile 1B/LHP Stephen Head, my guess is Mayberry. While GMs often stress they don't draft with the Major League club in mind, I believe solid college players change that. Months removed from Carlos Delgado's exit, I'll predict the Blue Jays select powerful slugger Mayberry.

    This is all too bad for the Expos, who would have loved to start a Virginia/Washington D.C. franchise around local Upton. After a horrific season's opening this appeared to be a lock, but recent decency has ended this possibility. Now the Expos, or Senators, will be resigned to the fifth hole. This may be Pelfrey or Gordon, or if they stay the college route, Baylor right-hander Mark McCormick. If they opt for high school players, some possibilities include Richmond shortstop Justin Bristow, Texas slugger Jordan Danks (brother of John), and Florida outfielder Andrew McCutchen.

    But to paraphrase Dave Cameron from my interview, let's just be happy the draft comes next June.

    P.S. Another slow signing process has been the one involving Jered Weaver. For more on those negotiations, keep your eye over at RWBB. He's already had one report, and you can bet the obsession won't end just because Weaver's no longer a Dirtbag...for now.

    WTNYAugust 26, 2004
    More of the Future
    By Bryan Smith

    Amidst a solid amount of fanfare, highly acclaimed pitching prospects Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis made their Major League debuts this week. Both southpaws, and 2002 first rounders, were having dominating seasons for unproductive organizations, and were two of the game's top ten prospects. This is when comparisons between the two end.

    Kazmir has been in the eye of a hurricane recently, and not Charley, which tore up south of where Scott now calls home. Instead, he's been in the middle of controversy in New York about the deadline deal that sent Kazmir to the Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano. Mets fans had glorified Kazmir, the short southpaw with the huge arm. Now the fans have turned their energy against the organization, vocally criticizing GM Jim Duquette, as well as trade proponents Rick Peterson and Al Leiter. A 20-year-old with a cannon drawing New York headlines, wow.

    That sure ain't Jeff Francis. Chosen by the Rockies ninth overall out of Canada, Francis wasn't known for his radar gun readings. With perfect polish and stellar command, Francis drew significantly less scouts at the University of British Columbia than Kazmir did at his Texas high school. While his 3.47 ERA in Asheville wasn't too attractive to Rockie fans, few had noticed that Francis had closed the season better than anyone in the minors. His star began shining this seaso, when the gangly 6-5 Francis quickly became the Texas League's star. Now, a virtual lock to win Minor League Player of the Year, Francis will be spending his year in the game's worst stadium.

    Even their debuts were in sharp contrast. Kazmir opened his Major League career against the AL hits leader in Ichiro, but an otherwise sorry team in the Mariners. Francis began by striking out Rafael Furcal on the division leading Atlanta Braves. Kazmir would pitch five scoreless innings, giving Mets fans even more reason to hate Duquette. Francis would give up six runs in five innings, including three runs in a game not played in Coors. Kazmir threw 16 more pitches than Francis, but struggled more with control, throwing only five more strikes (56 to 51), and two more walks. Francis even showed more dominance, striking out eight Braves to Kazmir's four. Kazmir allowed two less hits, understandable when considering the competition.

    Unfortunately, Dell has put my new computer on backorder, leaving me waiting to begin an MLB TV subscription. This unfortunately caused me to miss both games, of which I'll watch at a later date. For Kazmir's debut, I recommend well-written chronicles by Derek Zumsteg, Avkash Patel and our own Rich Lederer. The consensus was that Kazmir had everything scouts had said: no height, a mid-90s fastball, diving slider, and no third pitch. He was said to struggle badly with control, and will likely take his aches and pains in the next month and a half.

    Francis, on the other hand, only struggled with home runs. All in all this is just a bad time to catch Chipper Jones, who has hit eight home runs in just 77 August at-bats. Francis helped add two to that total Wednesday, giving up a two-run homer in the first and a three-run homer in the sixth. The first came on a Francis fastball, touted by most scouts at 87-89 mph. Chipper's second shot came on a change that Francis left just a little too high, and Jones took it to straightaway center. But the Canadian showed very solid breaking pitches, which he used often with two-strike counts.

    And if asked today, I would guess that these two southpaws will continue to not mirror eachother in the slightest. Francis should pitch well the rest of the season, showing an ERA bloated by this particular start and Coors, where he will make his fourth start. Kazmir should struggle for the Devil Rays, possibly even shut down before the end of the season. But what these two share, more than anything else, is one helluva bright future.

    Next on the schedule

    Kazmir: Aug. 29 @ Oakland vs. Mark Mulder
    Francis: Aug. 31 @ San Fran v. Brett Tomko

    WTNYAugust 25, 2004
    WTNY Hot Seat: Dave Cameron
    By Bryan Smith

    Monday afternoon, I was lucky enough to have a conversation with Dave Cameron, most known for his great work at U.S.S. Mariner. But Cameron's draw to WTNY was not for his Mariner knowledge, but his intelligence for minor league baseball. An avid Carolina League watcher, Cameron sees more prospects than I'm able to, and with his sources hears about more. My favorite of Cameron's pieces come at Baseball Prospectus, when he finds the time to write a prospect profile. So I asked Dave to sit down with me and talk about everything from the game's best prospects, to the Mariners, to proper minor league analyzation.

    Bryan Smith: Well, let's start at the top. I, for one, would rank Andy Marte tops overall in the minors with B.J. Upton gone. In my mind, there are arguments for three players: Marte, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young. I know you're a Mariners fan, and even the guy that introduced me to Felix a year ago, so would you argue for the King in the top throne?

    Dave Cameron: No, I wouldn't, simply because of the monumental attrition rate of teenage pitchers. Felix Hernandez may be the most talented player in the minors, but you can't simply ignore the risk that comes every time he takes the mound. The last few pitching prospects that have been in this kind of class are guys like Rick Ankiel, Josh Beckett, and Ryan Anderson. Not exactly a hall of fame trio. The risk is just too high to take Felix over an established hitting prospect like Marte. He could be better, but he could just as easily be nothing.

    Smith: What about Delmon? After starting the year on slow he's really coming on hard down the stretch, breathing down the neck of Hernandez for the #2 spot in my opinion. I mean, Kevin Goldstein noted the other day he was hitting .460 over a 20-game stretch. He's shot past Dallas McPherson in the three spot, who is actually dropping in my mind with bad patience in the PCL.

    Cameron: Delmon's a tough case. A year ago, scouts loved him and statistical analysis had no opinion. Now, his statistics are ridiculously impressive for an 18-year-old in the South Atlantic League, but he hasn't made some adjustments that some would like. Like Prince Fielder, I don't think he's a normal 18-year-old who is going to grow at the same rate most do. He's a very mature physical specimen for his age, and I don't see a huge David Wright-style leap in his future. He's already way ahead of where most teenagers are, but I think his development is going to be in smaller increments. His defense is still mediocre at best and he's got some things to work on in his swing and pitch recognition. His numbers, I think, overstate his potential. He's one of the better prospects in the game, but he's not the next great phenom.

    Smith: Young's just part of the pre-alcohol trio in the Tampa system. Upton has been up and down since being summoned, keeping his average above .300. And the last of the three, Scott Kazmir, makes his debut tonight against, who else but the Mariners. I know you'll be watching. He was obviously the steal of the deadline, though I can't help but wonder if the scouts are right about Kazmir. But overall, this 3 is about as good as it gets, and you can't help but wonder if the sun might actually reach Tropicana Field soon.

    Cameron: I'm not sure I'd agree that Upton has been up and down. He's hitting .306/.348/.500 as a 20-year-old in the majors. That's pretty much just up and up. Good luck finding a scout who doesn't work for the Mets who will say bad things about Kazmir, by the way.

    Smith: Well, the downs came mostly in his first couple of games, which I guess is expected given his age. As for Kazmir, you don't doubt he'll be able to stay in the starting rotation. The southpaw version of Roy Oswalt?

    Cameron: The knocks on Kazmir staying in the rotation could apply to 95 percent of all pitching prospects. He's not built like a horse, but most aren't. He only has two major league pitches right now; so does Kerry Wood. He might end up in the bullpen, but every pitching prospect might end up in the bullpen. Kazmir isn't behind in his development, and the talk of him needing to move to relief work is pure speculation at this point.

    Smith: As for Upton, I gotta ask what you make of this nine-year deal that Tampa and Upton's agent have been talking about. It would end about halfway through B.J.'s 'prime' years, providing financial security for both parties involved. Are we going to see contracts evolve from a Vernon Wells-type contract (buying out auto-renewal AND arbitration years) into this?

    Cameron: I'm not a fan of committing to anything besides a spouse for longer than about 6 years. There are just too many unpredictable variables that could ruin this deal for either side. Unless Upton gets the Devil Rays to pay him a rate that would adjust for fair market value in 2011, he could be leaving a ton of money on the table. On the flip side, he could tear his ACL tomorrow and never live up to his potential, giving the D'Rays a decade long albatross. I don't like the idea for either side.

    Smith: Upton's not the only young shortstop that has been debuting lately, as we've seen Jose Lopez have 77 at-bats in Seattle. I took some flak last month for leaving Jose off my top 100 prospects list, but I can't help not being a fan. With all the questions surrounding him (defense, patience, low average), there just doesn't seem to be reason to buy his stock. I mean, age can't rule over all statistical indicators, can it?

    Cameron: I don't think there's any way you can leave Lopez off the top 100, but he's also fairly overrated by most observers. He was actually having a very successful season statistically for Tacoma, showing legitimate power in cavernous Cheney Stadium. I wouldn't classify him as a low-average hitter, either, as he was hitting .295 in Tacoma and hit .336 in the Cal League as an 18-year-old in 2002. There's no question his lack of patience is going to limit his abilities to turn into a superstar, and his defense isn't very good, but he still projects as a second or third baseman with above average power. He might be Tony Batista, but he might be Jeff Kent. He's not anywhere close to a B.J. Upton kind of talent, but he's still a pretty nifty prospect, and I'm glad the M's have him.

    Smith: I posed some analysis of Seattle's farm system Monday, which I'm sure you have comments on. I ranked the group second in the AL West, centering my analysis on a pair of infielders, Matt Tuiasosopo and Asrdrubal Cedeno. Man, those names sound like the DP combo of Grudzielanek-Garciaparra in Chicago. Now the question is, will they ever be that good?

    Cameron: Asdrubal Cabrera has a chance to be Jose Lopez offensively with gold glove defense. His work with the glove at shortstop is near major league quality right now, and he's probably the best defensive infielder the M's have had in their minor league system in ten years. Offensively, he's got some work to do, but he has the makings of being a gap power hitter with a high enough average to overcome his swing-at-anything approach. He's still got a long ways to go, but on potential alone, he's definitely one to watch.

    Tuiasosopo tore the cover off the ball in Arizona and his first week in Everett, but pitchers have caught on and started exposing him with breaking balls, working him in and away successfully. He has a solid swing with legitimate opposite field power, but his approach needs work. Defensively, he's just not a shortstop. Most organizations had him pegged as a rightfielder heading into the draft, and he hasn't done anything to change anyones' mind about that since. Expect him to move to the outfield permanently in 2006 at the latest. He may have the bat to carry out there, but we just don't know right now. He's more project than prospect at this moment.

    Smith: The AL West's other farm systems bring up some interesting stories. I mean, Anaheim has middle infield depth that trumps Seattle's, not to mention Kotchman, McPherson, Santana, etc. Texas looks replenished under the work of Grady Fuson, who has to be one of the game's top free agents. And most surprisingly, Billy Beane's system looks weak, though the latest draft could change that. What do you make of the competing farm systems?

    Cameron: I think Anaheim's system is the best in the game, and it isn't particularly close. Kotchman is an unbelievable talent if he can stay healthy. Mathis, McPherson, and Santana are the big names, but the lower levels are stacked as well. They just have waves of talent heading towards Edison Field.

    Texas' system has some intriguing talents but lacks the prime time stud that Seattle and Anaheim boast. Fuson did a fantastic job bringing in a lot of depth, and they should produce more quality major leaguers than the rest of the division. I wouldn't expect too many all-stars to come out of their current crop, however.

    Oakland's system is doing exactly what Beane wants it to do; give him chips to trade to keep his current team competitive. If the A's weren't world series contenders, they'd draft differently. They are exploiting a current trend of being able to acquire major league talent relatively cheaply during the season, and so they have made a conscious decision to acquire players that will have significant trade value quickly. It will hurt them in a few years, but that's a tradeoff they are willing to make to keep this team competitive in 2004.

    The Mariners system is full of athletes who the organization hopes can figure out how to play baseball, but three miserable drafts under old scouting director Frank Mattox have hurt the farm system. Nearly every top prospect in the system comes with above average risk, and the M's are hoping to beat the odds on a few players. There aren't any sure-fire major leaguers in the whole bunch, but they have several possible big time talents.

    Smith: Well, my vote for the game's top system (Kotchman doesn't count in my mind since he played in the Majors) is Atlanta, who have great pitching depth with a good hitting pair in Marte and Francouer. I know you like to make it out to Carolina League games, so you probably know Braves prospects well. Do you like what you've seen from Myrtle Beach lately?

    Cameron: This year's Myrtle Beach squad is the weakest they've had in the past few years, talent wise. Francoeur is a nice talent, though he has significantly less upside as a right fielder than he did as a center fielder. Brian McCann has pop from behind the plate, but has a long ways to go before he's a major league hitter. Pitching wise, Jose Capellan began his assent through the system at MB, but he's almost certainly a reliever in the big leagues. Kyle Davies has some promise as a mid-to-back-end starter and Matt Wright, Blaine Boyer, and Anthony Lerew have solid arms and decent performances, but these guys aren't front line prospects.

    Smith: I thought the same of Capellan after seeing him in the Futures Game, as he's way too dependent on one pitch. But I like Davies, especially if you buy Dayn Perry's analysis about the importance of low HR/9 totals...

    Cameron: I don't think there's any doubt that low home run rates are a good thing, but I doubt too many people could take you or me deep in Costal Federal Field. That place is just ridiculously hard to hit a longball, and almost all of the pitching stats put up there have to be taken with large truckfulls of salt. If you love HR/9, Matt Wright (4 in 119 innings) or Blaine Boyer (3 in 137) are your guys. Davies is better than Lerew, but his HR/9 rate isn't that good. 3 HR's allowed in 75 IP is one of the worst marks on that team. CFF is just an unbelievable pitchers park.

    Smith: Well, let's talk about the Carolina League as a whole. Prospects-wise it hasn't been a fantastic year for the league, has it? Capellan, Aubrey and Brandon McCarthy all briefly played there, moving on to better places. Who has been the best player you've seen, who's the best player there now, and who is the best player the normal fan wouldn't know?

    Cameron: The best prospect in the league this year was probably Francoeur, edging out Michael Aubrey. Francoeur still has a ways to go in his development, but he's the one guy that I saw who could be a regular at all-star games in the next 10 years. The best prospect in the league now may be Fernando Nieve, a diminuitive right-hander who I've been talking up for two years. His velocity has been down to the low 90's this year, but his command and breaking ball have improved and he's setting up hitters well. A sleeper could be Thomas Pauly with the Reds, who has been brilliant but gotten very little press outside of Cincinnati

    Smith: I really like Nieve, listing him as my Houston breakout prospect before the season. Did you get a chance to see McCarthy, and is Nieve the best pitcher you've seen?

    Cameron: I've liked Nieve ever since I saw him in Martinsville just eating people up with a 98 MPH fastball and a hammer curve. He's a different pitcher now than he was, but he's still getting people out. The Sox were nice enough to promote McCarthy three days before I had a chance to see him, so unfortunately, I have no first hand accounts, but everyone I talk to says the same thing; average stuff, impeccable command, pitching over his head.

    Smith: A modern day, right-handed Joe Kennedy.

    Cameron: Perhaps, though I've always had a soft spot for Joe Kennedy

    Smith: It's obvious when you talk about prospects how much you value your first-hand account, or the scouting reports you hear of a player. How would you say is the proper way to balance tools vs. numbers when evaluating a prospect?

    Cameron: I think the key is to understand the limitations of our information. Statistical analysis is only as good as the sample size and the competition and only provides information in retrospect, while scouting is prone to inconsistencies among observers bias', inability to track consistency and important things like a players approach on a day-to-day basis, and the trickeries of the human eye and mind. If you understand the limitations of each and try to complement those with the strengths of the other, I believe you can see a more complete portion of the truth that we're trying to obtain. I don't know that we have a perfect way of balancing projection vs results, but it's pretty clear to me that both are valid to a point and faulty by themselves. Ignoring either one is a waste.

    Smith: Is there one great statistic you use to evaluate minor leaguers? Does one not exist? Could one even be created?

    Cameron: The search for one all encompassing statistic is useless. There are so many different things to evaluate in a player that trying to add them into one formula successfully is going to take more time than its worth. It really isn't that hard to look at statistics that judge individual player skills without lumping them together. Why would you want to combine perfectly good numbers that reveal a players ability to make contact and hit for power into one less effective number that doesn't do either as well? One of the challenges that statistical analysts face is getting past the belief that the statistics are skills themselves. There's no such thing as the walk-to-strikeout ratio skill. We must remember that the numbers are just tools to use to help us evaluate the player's actual abilities, and the less we focus on trying to come up with one number and the more we focus on understanding the skills, the better off we'll be.

    Smith: Rich mentions this in his latest breakdown of Bill James in the 1982 abstract, where James talks about statistics more as a language than a number...

    Cameron: Right. Statistics are useful in revealing what a player can and cannot do, but we have to realize that a change in those skills will be noticable to a scout long before they are noticable to a statistical analyst, who has to wait for the sample size to catch up before he claims it as something more than random chance. What we're trying to do is determine just what kind of skills these kids have. The numbers tell us part and scouting tell us part.

    Smith: OK...onto the speed round...Put the following five in order: Rios, Sizemore, Upton, Wright, Mauer...
    Cameron: Upton, Wright, Mauer, huge enormous gap, Sizemore, Rios

    Smith: Finish this sentence: the next great baseball phenom is...
    Cameron: Felix Hernandez, if he doesn't blow his arm out.

    Smith: Should the Diamondbacks take Justin Upton despite already having solid depth at shortstop in Santos and Drew?
    Cameron: Depends on how much he demands in signing bonus and who else is available. If they had to choose today, yes. But let's all be glad they don't.

    Smith: Who might we see a Jeff Francis like bust-out from in 2005?
    Cameron: Jeremy Hermida. Get him out of the Florida State League and add a few more pounds and he's going to take off.

    bsmithwtny: The best talent from the 2004 draft was...
    Cameron: No one can match Jeff Niemann's sick size and talent, but his arm problems are a pretty serious question mark. If I'm taking one player from the draft, its Stephen Drew, but that's only if I don't have to sign him.

    Smith: And finally, the player you're most excited to watch in the Carolina League next year is...
    Cameron: Probably Adam Miller, if the Indians don't bump him up to Double-A.

    Smith: Dave Cameron, you are off the Wait 'Til Next Year hot seat.

    That's all for today. Hopefully I'll be able to get something on the site tomorrow, since my sleeper pick of the year (Jeff Francis), will be making his debut with the Rockies. As Kevin Goldstein points out, the Rockies have created a situation where the Candian southpaw won't make his first Coors Field start until his fourth. Best of luck to Jeff Francis, and congratulations to Scott Kazmir on a fantastic first start. More tomorrow...

    WTNYAugust 22, 2004
    25 and Under (ALW Edition)
    By Bryan Smith

    After completing a top 100 prospects list, my comments were filled with requests of farm system rankings. To correctly evaluate a team's system though, it's hard to look just below the major league surface. If so, Tampa would've taken a huge loss when B.J. Upton graduated, which should be more of a reward than a punishment. In fact, often times those young Major Leaguers offer a better evaluation of a system than their prospect counterparts. So I've tried to combat this, not using the typical 'organizational prospect rankings' title. Instead, I'll spend the next 6 weeks on my organizational 25 and under rankings.

    No, this name does not derive from pornography, but refers to youth in a Major League system. I've debated changing the age requirement, or even using service time rather than birth years. But in the end, we come out with a very similar and much simpler outcome with 25 and under. So ignore the occasional freak like C.C. Sabathia, who at age 24 is more accomplished than 90% of Major League pitchers. Another rule is the player must have been a product of the minor league system. So Joe Nathan, who was raised a Giant and turned a Twin, will not factor into the rankings. Get it? Got it? Good.

    Before we get started, let me explain the ranking process. Every week I'll handle a new division, starting today with the AL West. On Mondays I'll rank strictly the farm systems, which include players with zero Major League experience. Fridays will be Major League youth rankings, along with an updated breakdown. Wednesdays will be open for my own thoughts, ranging from the AFL, to the Justin Upton futility battle, to a special treat this week. This present will delay part two of the AFL article, which should be excusable when seeing my excuse. But for that, check back Wednesday. Today...is the AL West.

    Moneyball may have briefly glorified the A's farm system, which is in divisional ranking freefall due to surrounding excellence. It appears the A's are slowly going dry, especially with the graduation of players like Bobby Crosby and Jairo Garcia. The infamous 2001 draft has struggled, with the traded Mark Teahen appearing to be their best selection. Luckily, Beane has already built a solid young core that won't need much revamping.

    Heading down the state, the Angels are prepared for a slight makeover. Prior to the season there were no questions the Angels had one of the game's top systems. While Bobby Jenks and Jeff Mathis fall into the underachieving pile, Casey Kotchman has reached the Majors with Dallas McPherson nipping at his heels. And to improve things even more, Anaheim's low minor clubs feature more middle infield depth than you can imagine. With Arte Moreno throwing dollars at players like crazy, Anaheim will need a few working for the minimum.

    Seattle's Major League explosion is already happening, with Jose Lopez, Clint Nageotte and Travis Blackley all donning Seattle aqua. But the only true validation of the system will be the performance of Felix Hernandez, one of the game's top prospects. A bad year has equaled chances for youth, giving hope for outfielders Snelling, Reed and Choo. And while depth isn't existent in the Northwest, breeding the next Doc Gooden would excuse that.

    Opposite the Mariners are the Texas Rangers, a team with immense depth built by Grady Fuson. Beane's former top man, Fuson is the reason for the Hudsons, Tejadas and Giambis of the world. Front office controversy has led to the departure of Fuson, who could be one of the offseason's best buys. He leaves behind him a solid system, built behind trades and late round steals. Teixeira, Nix and Gerald Laird have just began to show the system's strength, with Adrian Gonzalez and John Hudgins on the next tier. Expect John Hart to carefully pick and choose who, over time, gets kept or dealt.

    Below are better descriptions of the farm systems, arranged from best to worst. Remember, this only includes players with no Major League experience. Let's begin with the AL West's best...Anaheim.

    Angels
    Top Ten Prospects
    1. Dallas McPherson
    2. Ervin Santana
    3. Jeff Mathis
    4. Erick Aybar
    5. Brandon Wood
    6. Bobby Jenks
    7. Howie Kendrick
    8. Alberto Callaspo
    9. Sean Rodriguez
    10. Warner Madrigal

    In case you're keeping track, half of that list is made up of middle infielders, three of whom are shortstops. This group is led by Erick Aybar, who is currently in a battle with Brian Stavinsky for the California League MVP. Aybar is tops in the league in stolen bases, and top three in batting average. A little raw, Aybar has 29 errors and 34 caught stealing. This is a little concerning, but forgivable when remembering his age of 20. He reminds me of Josh Barfield, indicating a possible rough 2005, though Texas League inflation will surely help.

    In his spot goes Brandon Wood, the Angels first-round pick of 2003. Thought of as a bit of a reach last year, Wood has shown nice power and speed in the Midwest League. He's already hit the 100 strikeout mark, though, and like Aybar is nearing in on 30 errors. The final shortstop is Sean Rodriguez, currently tearing up the short-season Pioneer League to the tune of .366/.496/.629. Only 19 years old, Rodriguez already has won the first half MVP award, and is destined for a great future.

    There are five other hitters in the top ten, most notably Dallas McPherson, who I've written about in the past. McPherson's loss of patience in the PCL is concerning, making me wonder more and more if the Angels have the reincarnate of Jeremy Burnitz. Is that really a bad thing? Jeff Mathis and Alberto Callaspo have both disappointed in the Texas League, failing to show averages that are even worthy of 2005 promotions. Who knows, maybe reuniting with Aybar will help the 21-year-old second basemen. As for Mathis, the Angels have delayed re-signing Ben Molina just for him, making his failures the most frustrating.

    Failure has always been predicted upon Bobby Jenks, a hard-throwing righthander that always had high gun readings and walk totals. An arm injury has basically derailed his season, which has been nothing to right home about. As for Santana, while an injury kept him out the first month-and-a-half, he's bounced back and is in line for a September start and 2005 rotation spot.

    Worth mentioning is the Angels latest draft, when they ruffled a few feathers paying more than $2 million for Nick Adenhart and Mark Trumbo. Both considered first-round talents, Adenhart dropped to the fourteenth round because of arm surgery, while Trumbo's bonus demands saw him fall to the 18th round. Adenhart will resume pitching in 2006 at the age of 20, and was always considered a more favorable prospect than fellow New Englander Mark Rogers, who was drafted fifth overall. Trumbo can pitch or play third base, making him extremely versatile and athletic.

    As Rich Lederer has written about, the Angels are also currently negotiating with Jered Weaver, and stand as far as $1 million apart. Weaver is playing hardball, and Peter Gammons has rumored the LBSU right-hander may opt to stay a dirtbag for one last hurrah. Also worth mentioning from the '04 draft are 2B Josh LeBlanc and 3B Andrew Toussaint, both former teammates of Rickie Weeks at Southern University. Both are playing fantastically with Rodriguez in the Pioneer League, and Toussaint should be in the California League next season.

    So while deep, the Angels system stands to get even deeper if Weaver gets signed, Adenhart gets healthy, and Trumbo plays the right position. Watch out.

    Mariners
    Top Ten Prospects
    1. Felix Hernandez
    2. Jeremy Reed
    3. Shin-Soo Choo
    4. Matt Tuiasosopo
    5. Bobby Livingston
    6. Asdrubal Cabrera
    7. Mike Morse
    8. Tom Oldham
    9. Casey Craig
    10. Rett Johnson

    It was a tough decision to rank the Mariners over the Rangers here, and the play of Matt Tuiasosopo could change things by season's end. Tui, brother of the Oakland Raiders QB, was given a record third-round bonus to spurn University of Washington and play baseball full-time. After tearing up the Arizona League, the shortstop has stayed challenged in the Northwest League, still solid at .304/.365/.464. He reminds me of a shortstop version of Lastings Milledge, showing raw power and speed with a complete lack of polish. But without worrying about throwing a spiral, Tuiasosopo could burst into the spotlight soon.

    His arrival led to the position-switch of one of my favorite sleeper picks, Asdrubal Cabrera. The switch-hitting 18-year-old is hitting a solid .284, and sports an ISO of .179. He doesn't strike out nearly as much as most young players, and walks a little. He'll be in the Midwest League at 19, but could stay under the radar until the Texas League boosts his numbers. I ranked him ahead of Mike Morse, one of the acquisitions for Freddy Garcia. Morse is simply too big to stay at shortstop, and doesn't hit enough to play third. I'm not a fan at all, and would urge fantasy players to stay far away from.

    Impressing me this year has been the pitching of Bobby Livingston, a southpaw with a 3.48 ERA in 165 innings so far in the California League. Allowing a prospect to throw that many innings is negligent, and Livingston should draw as much a red light as Felix Hernandez. And while you hate to see a H/9 more than 9.00, I love K/BB ratios of four-and-a-half. He would normally rank behind Rett Johnson, who broke out last year before getting injured. Johnson has just returned, and could be #4 in these rankings real soon.

    Rangers
    Top Ten Prospects
    1. Ian Kinsler
    2. John Danks
    3. John Hudgins
    4. Thomas Diamond
    5. Joaquin Arias
    6. Vincent Sinisi
    7. Michael Nickeas
    8. Josh Rupe
    9. Chris Young
    10. Mark Roberts

    Descriptions of these ten players are so different, it shows the strength of Grady Fuson: he ain't narrow-minded. Kinsler was a college shortstop who couldn't hit, and was drafted past the 20th round. Danks was a top ten choice, a hard throwing southpaw out of a Texas high school. Hudgins was a second rounder out of Stanford, completely polished and having thrown WAY too many college innings. Diamond was a college right-hander from New Orleans, lacking the polish of most 21-year-olds. Arias is a 19-year-old shortstop acquired in the A-Rod deal, while Sinisi was a second rounder with huge numbers from Rice. Further down the list, you have Chris Young who stands at 6-10 and was acquired for Einar Diaz.

    So, you get the point. Unlike the A's, Fuson's former home, Rangers prospects don't fit one profile. Unlike the Braves, Fuson won't draft from one area, one type of player. He's the ultimate scout, seeing things in players that others won't, choosing players that others wouldn't. I really like this guy, if you haven't noticed.

    Kinsler's rise has been well documented, and I should say that Hudgins is closer to Danks than ever. Diamond has pitched fantastically, and is already throwing in the Midwest League. Roberts, who was overlooked as a Sooner, has some fantastic peripherals in the Pioneer League. Also in that draft was Nickeas, a catcher from Georgia Tech also playing fantastically in short-season ball. Between them stand Rupe, a four-pitch ex-White Sox in the Josh Fogg mold, and Chris Young, who's promotion to the PCL has worked out great.

    Texas will soon show how valuable Grady Fuson was, and I can guarantee the system strength will start dropping in about three years, the time it took him to establish himself. But hey, John Hart sure has reaped the benefits.

    Athletics
    Top Ten Prospects
    1. Omar Quintanilla
    2. Joe Blanton
    3. Nick Swisher
    4. Dan Johnson
    5. Brad Snyder
    6. Huston Street
    7. Brad Knox
    8. Daniel Putnam
    9. Jason Windsor
    10. David Castillo

    If you say anything about this system, mention the latest draft. With the most picks he's had since 2001, Beane was able to find a ton of players right in his mold. Street was a closer at Texas that is already pitching in Midland. If he has a Chad Cordero-like rise, the A's could let Street and Jairo Garcia close games next year. Putnam was great at Stanford, and showing power in the Midwest League he didn't display as a Cardinal. Windsor is like John Hudgins from above, a great arm that threw a ton of innings at a college powerhouse. I also love Kurt Suzuki, Windsor's bat-first catcher from Cal-State Fullerton. Beane did a great job this June, and for his system's strength, it simply must not flop like 2001 has.

    Still kicking from 2001 are Joe Blanton and Nick Swisher. I can't even begin to guess what Joe Blanton's problem is, though it looks like he caught the Jeremy Guthrie disease. Guthrie, a well-established college hurler, was a fantastic prospect until the International League halted his development. But the A's need Blanton to work out, as they are depending on him to fill the hole that an offseason Barry Zito trade will open. If he doesn't improve, the A's might get cold feet on this one, possibly preventing them from re-signing any of the Big Three.

    Who I really like here is Quintanilla and Dan Johnson. Quintanilla just missed my top 100, and immediately after, sought out to prove me wrong. He has, as the left-handed shortstop is hitting .407 in nine games since a promotion. Quintanilla shows power and patience, but hasn't been great at defense this year. Beane will probably expirament with moving Quintanilla to second in the AFL, as Bobby Crosby would block him at the Major League level anyway. But lord does Quintanilla remind me of a worse-fielding version of Khalil Greene, another accomplished college shortstop who might just win the Rookie of the Year.

    Scott Hatteberg, also glorified in Moneyball, will likely be too expensive a commodity for Beane this offseason. In his spot will come Dan Johnson, who has been blocked for far too long. It has even forced the A's to try Johnson out in the outfield, which works out about as well as Durazo playing there. But the patient, powerful Johnson will get his chance next year, saving the A's about $2 million at first base. And if he screws up, there is always Graham Koonce.

    **************

    So that's all for today, though I urge everyone to come back Wednesday for a WTNY special.

    WTNYAugust 20, 2004
    AFL Report
    By Bryan Smith

    Just yesterday, Baseball America and Major League Baseball announced the preliminary rosters for the 2004 Arizona Fall League. There are still a lot of spots to be filled, but as of now, it’s enough to be analyzed.

    To let everyone know what’s coming in the future, I’ll say my organizational rankings will begin on Monday, with the AL West. My theories will be expanded more next week, but rather than rank farm systems, I find it better to rank 25 and unders. These rankings will take up my Monday and Friday installments for the next six weeks. That leaves Wednesdays open, where I will further dabble in the history of the Major League draft.

    For those not familiar with the AFL, it’s a six team lead made up of six prospects from five different teams. These players have experience that ranges from the Midwest League to the Majors, and often is home for some of the game’s brightest stars. The league is normally dominated by hitters, though this year’s crop has more pitching prospects than last year featured. Today, I’ll be looking at who is on what team, and finish off the article with a ranking of the top prospects to see in the 2004 AFL.

    Team 1: Grand Canyon Rafers
    Teams: Twins, Yankees, Tigers, Braves, Giants

    Without the Twins, this team would struggle, as Minneosta has sent over J.D. Durbin, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel. They seem to be employing an interesting philosophy here, sending four players that all could factor into the 2005 plans. I’m sure that the actions of Durbin/Baker, Bartlett and Kubel will give Terry Ryan an idea of what to do with the back end of his rotation, Christian Guzman and Jacque Jones, respectively. If they follow the trend, their final pitching spot will be given to Jesse Crain, though a more fringe prospect like Boof or Francisco Liriano makes more sense to me.

    Kubel will be starting in a prospect-laden outfield, where he is surprisingly not the top prospect. That label goes to Jeff Francoeur, the former Atlanta first round pick that is easily a top 20 overall prospect. Despite missing about four weeks with an injury suffered from being hit by a pitch, Jeff is in the midst of a breakout season in a very difficult park for hitters. Like Andy Marte did this year, just wait for Francoeur to turn on the jets next season. Alongside Kubel and Francoeur will be Curtis Granderson, a sabermetric fav from the Tiger franchise that has just started his flight up prospect lists. Now hitting .313/.415/.538 in a huge hitter’s paradise, Granderson is an all-around solid player that should hit the Majors mid-way through next season.

    While I’ve often touted the Braves great pitching depth, it appears their best pitchers will not be sent to the AFL, as Macay McBride is the best to get the call so far. My guess is the final slot will be filled by Chuck James or Anthony Lerew, both solid but overlooked players. The second best Braves prospect going is Brian McCann, a 20-year-old catcher with a solid if unspectacular year in the FSL. The infield will primarily feature Bartlett and Yankee Bronson Sardinha, though it would be a nice experiment by the Bombers to try the contact-not-power first Sardinha at second base. The right side will likely have Ryan Raburn, the Tigers’ projected 2006 2B, and a platoon of non-prospects Scott Thorman and Mitch Jones. But the Giants, who haven’t given any names, will likely stick Lance Niekro in at first everyday.

    This team reminds me of past AFL years, with a few great position prospects, and little in the pitching department. Minnesota’s ML-ready players should help the team, which could see great improvement if the Giants send Matt Cain or Merkin Valdez there. Not likely, but David Aardesma and Brad Hennessey are two likely additions.

    Team 2: Mesa Solar Sox
    Teams: White Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, Devil Rays

    Experience doesn’t come flush with the Solar Sox, who are sending two players with no experience above low-A. Luckily for Mesa, those two players are Delmon Young and Brian Dopirak, two of the game’s up-and-coming players. Dopirak is likely being sent to work on his plate discipline, while Young’s performance will help dictate whether the California League or Southern League is a better destination for him next year. The other two offensive weapons, Jeff Baker and Brian Anderson, have very little experience in AA. Baker got the call over Ian Stewart, who will probably be one of the AFL’s best 2005 prospects.

    Joey Gathright is the most experienced of the group, the up-and-down Tampa centerfielder destined for the leadoff role. The rest of the offense will be filled out by Jayson Nix and John Nelson up the middle, with Cubs 21-year-old AA catcher Geovany Soto eating most of the at-bats at catcher. Whether Young and Dopirak can handle much more advanced pitching will dictate just how well this offense performs in Arizona.

    The pitching is largely undecided, as neither the Rockies or Devil Rays have announced their three choices each. I doubt Scott Kazmir gets the call, and he shouldn’t, although the team should send Chris Seddon there. Colorado, obviously very protective with Jeff Francis, will likely keep their prized southpaw on the sideline. Recent acquisition Chris Narveson is almost a lock to go, as should be relief ace Ryan Speier. This is all merely speculation, just adding to the wealth that’s already there.

    Mesa’s best pitcher is a toss-up between the old prospect Adam Wainwright, and the new one in Brandon McCarthy. Despite oodles of potential, Wainwright has hit a snag in the PCL, with a 5.37 ERA in 12 starts. His peripherals show he’s much better than that, and I expect Wainright to have a Dewon Brazelton-like year in 2004. To you unexperienced AFL fans, Brazelton was the league’s most heralded pitcher last year before a nice breakout this season. McCarthy’s fantastic play in high-A, a 103/21 K/BB ratio in 88 innings, has led the right-hander to a promotion and top prospect status.

    Both of those pitchers stand a tall 6-7, and will be joined in the rotation by fellow tall southpaw, Cubs hurler Sean Marshall. The front office was a little aggressive moving Marshall to AA a little early, though no one doubts the kid’s potential. He has fringe stuff though, and should be lit up here. I prefer Jae-Kuk Ryu, the other Cub hurler most known for his bad experience with a bird last season. Not nearly the headcase some consider him, Ryu will show he’s one of the Cubs best talents here.

    Edit: My computer is acting up, and this is all I'm able to get out so far. I'll try to comment about the other teams as soon as I can. Thanks in advance for your patience.

    WTNYAugust 18, 2004
    A Pack
    By Bryan Smith

    While I don’t have the link, I’ll never forget my favorite Rob Neyer column of old. An idol of mine, I thought his articles describing players that he found in a pack of trading cards were excellent. This site is supposed to emphasize players 25 and under, usually prohibiting me from writing a similar piece. But while in Target recently, I found a pack of Bowman trading cards. For you non-collectors, Bowman features not only Major Leaguers, but minor leaguers in their packs.

    So, thinking of that Neyer column, I treated myself to a pack of 2004 Bowman baseball cards. The packs feature Delmon Young, last year’s first overall choice and currently one of the game’s top three prospects, behind only Andy Marte and Felix Hernandez. Each pack has ten cards, half of which are minor league players. I also believe that within the five minor league cards comes one “First Bowman year” card, a thicker, gold card. Each of the ten features a replica autograph, along with a picture on the front. The back features the basics (height, weight, etc.), a scouting report (with resume and skillset), and the player’s 2003 statistics. Minor league scouting reports for three dollars?

    Whether by design or coincidence, I opened my pack to the five minor leaguers in sequence, followed by their Major League counterparts. All five minor league cards are commented on below. So, I opened the pack to find…

    Card 1: Ricky Nolasco
    Pitcher, Chicago Cubs, AA

    “Skills: Throws with over-the-top motion…Impresses
    with strong, reliable arm…Solidly built prospect who
    gets good late movement on fastball.”

    Often lost in the great pitching depth of the Cubs system, Nolasco opened some eyes with a sub-3.00 ERA in Daytona in 2003. The late movement the Bowman card speaks of is referring to the sinking fastball Nolasco throws. A former fourth round draft pick, Nolasco’s stock was climbing rapidly at season’s beginning. After six starts, Nolasco had a 2.45 ERA in AA, ‘earning’ a promotion to the Iowa Cubs. I say earning lightly, since his K/9 was under 9.00 and K/BB was under 2.00. And in three of the four starts before his promotion, Nolasco allowed more hits than innings. In those four, Nolasco had a K/BB of 14/11, and gave up all his three home runs allowed in each of his last 3 starts.

    So, the Cubs were probably pressing a bit on the promotion. This showed when his trip to Iowa crashed and burned, resulting in arguably the worst promotion I’ve seen this season. Nolasco had a 9.30 ERA in nine PCL starts, allowing 68 hits in 40.1 innings. He struck out only 28 batters, while allowing sixteen walks. But the organization waited this long to demote Nolasco, as they were content with a AA rotation of Bobby Brownlie, Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Chadd Blasko and Carmen Pignatiello. But the team finally bit the bullet, and sent the struggling Californian back to Jackson, TN.

    Struggles have continued in Nolasco’s second AA stint, where he’s allowed a 5.10 ERA in nine starts since returning. He’s allowed 54 hits in 47.2 innings, striking out 50 while walking 15. The improvements in K/9, W/9 and K/BB are encouraging, and his ERA is boosted by one start. On August 10, Nolasco allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings, and if taken away, would drop his 2nd stint ERA to 3.95. Not so bad, right?

    In my opinion, Nolasco is not the prospect the Cubs thought after six 2004 starts, but more of a prospect than the average fan would see in his current numbers. His H/9 is still way too high, but there is evidence that Nolasco is improving as a pitcher.

    Card 2: Leo Nunez
    Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates, High-A

    “Skills: Top-notch arm strength…Occasionally gets into
    the mid-90s…Excellent command of fastball…Uses slider
    as second-best pitch…Will try to develop secondary
    offerings.”

    I’ll admit to not knowing Leo Nunez’s name before opening my pack, but since, I’ve started to like the guy. I was first insulted by his arrival in my pack, as his picture is reminiscent of a cocky high school player. The card is quick to say that Nunez weighs in at 150 pounds, and when looking at him, you might not even believe that.

    Considering his place of origin (Dominican), his size (lanky) and his stuff, Nunez reminds me greatly of Juan Cruz. Cruz struggled his first two years after signing, not faring well in the Arizona League and Northwest League at ages 17 and 18, respectively. The light turned on as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League, where he had a 3.28 ERA in 17 games. After an average AA season at age 20, along with a few Major League starts, Cruz began his full-time Major League career at age 21.

    The problem with this comparison, is that Nunez just turned 21, and is currently pitching in the Sally League. He struggled there last year, after spending the prior two years in the Gulf Coast League. This season the light has turned on, as Nunez has a 2.97 ERA in fourteen appearances. He’s allowed just 107 hits and 41 walks in 127.1 innings, while striking out 125. His 12 home runs allowed makes the Cruz comparison more apt, as my complaint with Juan has always fell in the HR column.

    Nunez is on a much slower pace than Juan Cruz was, but seems to be of a similar style. He should be gaining more attention than he currently has, but really has the makings of a top 100 prospect. But to really succeed, this kid HAS to fill out.

    Card 3: Jared Wells
    Pitcher, San Diego Padres, High-A

    “Skills: Blessed with a live arm…Throws in
    low-to-mid-90s..Can reach 97 mph on occasion…Owns
    solid secondary pitches.”

    Live arms look nice on a scouting report, but they don’t matter much to opposing hitters. Wells was a 2002 draft-and-follow, spending half of his year as one of the nation’s best junior college pitchers. He pitched solid in his 14 start debut, though striking out 53 in 78.2 innings is not exactly what a live arm should do. Believe me, this trend continues.

    Wells started this season in the Midwest League, with less than jaw-dropping numbers. In 81.1 innings, Wells allowed 91 hits and struck out just 72, but somehow earned a promotion. His walk and home run totals were pretty low, but there was no reason to think he was ready for the California League. And looking back, nine CL appearances later, there is still no reason to believe that. Wells has a 5.70 ERA, and has struck out just 25 in 47.1 innings. Combine that with 59 hits, and what you don’t have is a real prospect.

    Kevin Towers: It’s time to shut this kid down, tell him to go home for the year. Maybe send him to the Instructional League where he can be taught the arm of pitching, because it isn’t going well.

    Card 4: David Aardsma
    Pitcher, San Francisco Giants, AAA

    “Skills: A power pitcher who owns excellent control of
    his fastball…Gets good break on his slider and
    curve…Has proven he can shut the door.”

    Brian Sabean is known for off-the-wall first round draft picks, and Aardsma is no exception. Thinking he might need a solid relief arm down the 2003 stretch or for the 2004 season, Sabean selected Aardsma, fresh off closer duties for the nation’s top college team. After quickly signing Aardsma, the team sent him to the California League, where the right-hander allowed two runs in 18.1 innings and struck out 28.

    The team toyed with converting Aardsma to a starter, trying to harness the skills he possessed as a reliever. But the idea was scrapped when it appeared the ’04 Giants were in need of some relief help. With Robb Nen out for the season, the team was hoping Aardsma would make the quick step to the Majors that his college relief counterpart Chad Cordero did. Things looked well after six appearances, when his ERA stood at a solid 1.80. Now the ERA is 6.23, which translates to “things fell apart after six appearances.”

    When pitching in the Pacific Coast League, things have gone well for the Rice right-hander. He has a 2.64 ERA in 38 appearances, and has allowed just 38 hits in 47.2 innings. The good news is that he’s also given up only one home run. The bad news, is he’s allowed 25 walks. The first two, along with a K/9 just under 9.00, bodes well for the Giants’ 2005 projected closer. He could just take the job now, I mean, Dustin Hermanson is closing.

    Card 5: Jerome Gamble
    Pitcher, Boston Red Sox, AA

    “Skills: Plays off 93-mph fastball with improving
    change-up…Breaks off a hard curve…Keeps ball below
    knees…Committed worker with nice upside.”

    Not exactly the best person to have the gold card of. Gamble was selected in the fourth round of the 1998 draft out of high school. He’s looked solid in two different Sally League appearances, one before and one after Tommy John Surgery in 2001. And then he was selected by the Reds in the 2003 Rule V draft, but failed to make the team out of Spring Training. Things look to be going downhill for the right-hander that was once the Red Sox best pitching prospect.

    Now, in the Eastern League, Gamble has struck out just 36 in 61.2 innings. Like Wells from above, he has some solid numbers, but nothing that should get you too excited.

    But for some reason, Jerome Gamble reminds me of Kenny Baugh. The Tigers selected Baugh in the first round of the 2001 draft, 11th overall. He had been the ace of Rice in both his Junior and Senior seasons, during which his ERA was about 2.00 and he threw 260 innings. This is a ton for college pitchers, and IIRC, Prospectus even predicted his downfall. Arm surgery came in 2002, when Baugh missed the entire season before debuting in high-A in 2003. After just four starts, Baugh was moved up to the Eastern League, where he had a 4.60 ERA in nineteen appearances.

    My interest in college baseball began in Baugh’ senior season, and I always looked fondly on the right-hander that was so dominant in the NCAA. So in an article before the season, I predicted Baugh as one of my 2004 breakout prospects. While things are going slowly, I would think this has been a good year for Baugh, despite already surpassing the 140 inning mark in AA. He has a 3.72 ERA during that time, and a K/BB of about 2.50. There is no doubt that Baugh will be moved up to AAA next year, and is likely a candidate for some 2005 starts. I’ll always like Kenny Baugh, and hopefully his chances in Detroit will go well.


    And that is how the cookie crumbles. My Major League cards were solid: Podsednik, Blalock, Sosa, Ramirez, Colon, albeit unexciting. Sosa is currently my least favorite Cub, although you won’t ever catch me admitting he was on steroids. Instead of Sosa, I think Solo fits him better.

    Finally, let me give some ups to B.J. Upton, who hit his first Major League home run off Kelvim Escobar yesterday. Batting in the two-hole, Upton went 2/5, also doubling off Kevin Gregg. This raised my former #1 prospect’s season line to .357/.386/.548 in 42 at-bats. Tuesday’s game gave the shortstop a seven-game hitting streak, during which he has thirteen hits in 28 at-bats. His largest struggles have come defensively, where he’s already made three errors, though it sounds as it he’s improving. But no matter how you slice it, Upton was the top prospect in baseball deservingly.

    WTNYAugust 16, 2004
    History Lesson
    By Bryan Smith

    Everyone is so quick to call the Major League amateur draft a fool's game, no one stops to view the past results. While factors that scouting directors can't imagine are thrown into the mix when creating a superstar, there's no question that scouts know something. There was a reason Matt Bush was selected first overall this year, and his chance of success is significantly better than the Joe Schmoe selected with the last pick in the 50th round.

    You'll often hear people say that you can't evaluate a trade immediately, and the same is true for a draft. In fact, I think it takes six years before you can ever begin to break it down. My reasoning:

    Year 1: Drafted, short-season ball
    Year 2: Low-A
    Year 3: High-A
    Year 4: AA
    Year 5: AAA
    Year 6: MLB

    This would be an extremely slow and gracious pace for a prospect, who might even lose 'prospect' status by year 5. Most good players would have taken a quicker route, even hitting the Majors as early as year two. While Mark Prior hit the Majors in May of 2002, only 11 months after being drafted, Gavin Floyd (drafted 4th overall in 2001) is still in the minors.

    If we replace 'Year 6' with 2004, now would be the proper time to begin evaluating the 1999 draft. With the help of the Baseball Cube, one of the Internet's best resources, I was able to go through all 50 rounds of the 1999 draft. My results follow...

    1999 Draft: A Recourse

    After clawing and scratching through their first year of existence in 1998, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were given the first overall draft pick in the June 1999 draft. Behind them were the Florida Marlins, who with only 54 wins had the worst record from 1998. This prevented the Arizona Diamondbacks, who joined the Majors alongside Tampa, from picking until fourth overall. Detroit, who has had problems since the strike year of 1994, split the two NL teams with the third overall choice. You have to believe there was some animosity felt in Florida that year, as everybody around the Devil Rays wanted a piece of the Josh Hamilton pie.

    Hamilton, an high school outfielder from North Carolina, was a lock for the top pick in '99. He had it all: a powerful bat, rocket arm, and perfect makeup. Originally from Raleigh, Hamilton was an icon in the state, tearing through every high school record ever created by the state. And he did it all smiling, never escaping the Catholic boy image that scouts fell in love with. He was a scout's dream, and had 80s across the board. And then injuries came, and with injuries time, and with time corruption. His life went slowly down the wrong path, taking the unexpected turn into drugs. Still in rehab, Chuck Lamar is still praying his bonus baby will again pick up a bat.

    Behind Hamilton stood another high school phenom in the form of Josh Beckett. Most of my knowledge of Beckett comes from this article by Ryan Levy, one of the "30 players to get a hit of [Beckett] during his senior year." Beckett was almost as big as Hamilton, though a town filled with baseball superstars prevented Josh from reaching icon status. His makeup wasn't quite up to Hamilton standards, likely the reason the Spring, TX native fell to the Marlins with the second overall choice.

    The field narrowed after the first two, though the Tigers seemed please to select the nation's most complete college hitter: Eric Munson. One of about six chosen from USC that year, teams still believed Munson could stay behind the plate. Time has proven this belief to be false, along with the thought that he could hit for average in the Major Leagues. But, for their money, we can at least say the Tigers have received over six extra wins (16 WS) for him.

    This is more than can be said for the sorry excuses for baseball players chosen in the 4-6 slots. Arizona's first ever draft choice, Corey Myers, is now in AAA. An infielder out of high school, Myers is currently shuffling between the C/1B/3B positons with a line of 263/323/377. That is more than can be said for B.J. Garbe, Minnesota's toolsy outfielder that is still as raw as the day he was drafted. In AA, Garbe currently has a .291 slugging percentage AND on-base percentage. Finally, despite a relatively productive draft, the Expos' whiffed on their first choice, a HS southpaw named Josh Girdley. Still with the Expos, the leftie hasn't made it through ten games in the Florida State League.

    Kansas City selected seventh, surprisingly making Kyle Snyder from USC the first college hurler selected. Ben Sheets and Barry Zito were an argument within themselves, which has worked out to be true. Those two were selected ninth and tenth (Zito then Sheets), with Pittsburgh right-hander Bobby Bradley in the middle. Bradley has yet to avoid arm injury enough to compete, though he has the makings of a Major League pitcher.

    Well, that was the top ten in detail. As for choices 11-30, they are below, with players who have made the Major Leagues in bold:

    11. Seattle- Ryan Christianson- C
    12. Philly- Brett Myers- P
    13. Baltimore- Mike Paradis- P
    14. Cincinnati- Ty Howington- P
    15. ChiSox- Jason Stumm- P
    16. Colorado- Jason Jennings- P
    17. Boston- Rick Asadoorian- OF
    18. Baltimore- Rich Stahl- P
    19. Toronto- Alexis Rios- OF
    20. San Diego- Vince Faison- OF
    21. Baltimore- Larry Bigbie- OF
    22. ChiSox- Matt Ginter- P

    23. Baltimore- Keith Reed- OF
    24. San Fran- Kurt Ainsowrth- P
    25. Kansas City- Mike MacDougal- P

    26. ChiCubs- Ben Christensen- P
    27. Yankees- David Walling- P
    28. San Diego- Gerik Baxter- P
    29. San Diego- Omar Ortiz- P
    30. St. Louis- Chance Caple- P

    Baltimore and San Diego had seven picks between the two teams, and only one made the Major Leagues. Larry Bigbie looks like a success story, but the rest of the choices look horrible. Alexis Rios, who wasn't considered to have the talent of the rest, looks to be the best player of the bunch. This wasn't true too long ago, seeing as though Jason Jennings once won the Rookie of the Year.

    Ben Christensen would have gone in the top 10 on talent alone, but his bad makeup dropped him to the Cubs in the 26th slot. But the right-hander has had injuries derail his career, and the troubled pitcher is currently pitching in the Seattle organization. Howington and Stumm were both thought to be locks in the past December's Rule V draft, but neither's name was mentioned.

    Rather than go through every round, I have some final numbers to show. Overall, 93 players have made the Major Leagues from the 1999 draft. About 25 aren't worth a nickel, players like Matt Diaz or Prentice Redman that have little other than a September call-up on their resume. The last player selected to make the Majors was Chad Bentz, originally selected by the Yankees in the 34th round. The southpaw made the Expos Opening Day roster this year, and has been the LOOGY for much of the year. Other players selected below the 30th round are Mike Neu, Nick Green, Erik Eckenstahler, Bo Hart, and Jason Frasor.

    Of the 93, 51 of 54.84% are pitchers. The best of the group is likely Sheets, though he draws competition from Cy Young winner Zito and World Series MVP Beckett. The best hitter is undoubtedly Albert Pujols, amazingly drafted in the 13th round. Other good hitters are Hank Blalock, Carl Crawford, and Justin Morneau.

    St. Louis found a star in Pujols, and also were one of three teams with six draftees making the Majors. Besides Pujols, the Cardinals also saw Josh Pearce (2nd), Jim Journell (4th), Coco Crisp (7th), Mike Crudale (24th) and Hart (33rd). Seattle also had six make the Majors, with Willie Bloomquist (3rd), Clint Nageotte (5th) and Justin Leone (13th) worth noting. Finally, those teams are joined by Kansas City, who had five players in five rounds make the Majors (Snyder, MacDougal, Gobble, Obermuller, Harvey).

    On the other side of the coin, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are the only teams with just one success story. Both aren't exactly heroes either, with J.R. House and Jason Davis representing the two teams. House rose to the top of the organizational rankings before numerous injuries tore his career apart. Davis was a 21st round pitcher from the Cleveland area that threw a fastball just good enough to get noticed. Loads of teams only had two reach the Majors, with my Cubbies containing some of the worst graduates: Steve Smyth and Pete Zoccolillo.

    Finally, below is my all-1999 draft team:

    C- Josh Bard (3rd)
    1B- Lyle Overbay (18th)
    2B- Mark Ellis (9th)
    SS- Brian Roberts (1st)
    3B- Hank Blalock (3rd)
    LF- Albert Pujols (13th)
    CF- Carl Crawford (2nd)
    RF- Alexis Rios (1st)
    DH- Justin Morneau (3rd)

    1. Ben Sheets (1st)
    2. Josh Beckett (1st)
    3. Barry Zito (1st)
    4. Jake Peavy (15th)
    5. Brett Myers (1st)

    CL- Mike MacDougal (1st)
    SU- Jason Frasor (33rd)

    It also should be mentioned that fifty of the 93 players to make it came in the top 5 rounds, indicating that scouts have some idea what they are doing.

    While the largest superstar of the draft came in the 13th round, most of the best players were selected in the top 3 rounds, which had 36 success stories. Each player has his own timetable, but this lesson should tell us to always keep those top drafted players in the front of our brain.

    WTNYAugust 13, 2004
    Hendry (Part 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    The first half of this article can be found at the Cub Reporter.

    Trading for Nomar Garciaparra was far and away the most heroic move in recent memory of General Managers. There is no question the time is now, that the Cubs have World Series aspirations this year. But we still can’t help worrying about who we gave away, and what they will become.

    While evaluating past deals won’t give us the crystal ball reading, it can tell us if Jim Hendry and cabinet identify suitable players to trade. In part one, I established that Hendry “has done nothing but help this team,” on the Major League level. This is obviously job #1 for GMs, though the farm system should never be undervalued. The effect a farm system can have on a Major League club is sensationally large, as witnessed by the success of the Atlanta Braves.

    Rather than reprint a list of the 19 pre-Nomar Hendry trades, I thought to give the names of just the minor leaguers that were traded away, along with their accompanying 2004 statistics:

    David Noyce: out of baseball?
    Gary Johnson: .244/.338/.366 in 262 AAA AB
    Ryan Gripp: out of baseball?
    Travis Anderson: 0-1 7.25 25/22.1 14K/15BB 7HR (AA)
    Matt Bruback: 1-8 5.84 85/69.1 49/30 7 (AAA) AND 4-1 3.88 53/48.2 54/21 4 (AA)
    Jason Fransz: .257/.325/.441 in 136 low-A AB
    Ray Sadler: .268/.310/.487 in 351 AA AB
    Emmanuel Ramirez: 3-5 3.47 39/57 61/36 2 (AA)
    Mike Nannini: 7-7 5.34 132/121.1 85/34 26 (AAA)
    Wilton Chavez: 5-10 4.25 142/137.2 96/36 16 (AAA)
    Steve Smyth: 4-3 5.34 59/60.2 42/44 11 (AA)
    Felix Sanchez: 2-2 7.24 18/13.2 12/6 2 (AA)

    No real incriminating names here, obviously none have come up on prospect lists recently. Two of the 12 are out of baseball, three have since changed teams, and all but three are failing miserably. At first glance, this is a great sign for Hendry, who is becoming a better GM with every word I write.

    First, let's deal with the three who aren't doing pathetic: Ray Sadler, Emmanuel Ramirez and Wilton Chavez. What is the most frustrating aspect of these three players, is that we acquired Randall Simon, Tony Womack and Jose Macias for them, respectively. While prospects in larger trades have seldom worked out, these small role players in smaller trades are worth hanging onto.

    Sadler, traded for El Chorizo Grande last year, is a 23-year-old centerfielder once drafted in the 30th round. In 2000, Sadler made his debut in the Arizona League, hitting .339/.398/.448 in just 42 games. While his five triples surely helped the slugging percentage, Sadler stole a season-low of four bases. The number jumped to 18 in 2001, when he hit .341/.378/.508 for the Lansing Lugnuts. His power numbers dropped, as expected, when playing in the Florida State League in 2002, slugging only .429 in 462 AB. His average stayed impressive at .286, though his BB/K of 27/91 was very frightening. Following the same path in AA in 2003, the Cubs weren't afraid to deal away the speedy centerfielder. Sadler's power numbers are back up this year, a .219 ISO, and if he can return his average of old times he could be a decent player. But, I sure wouldn't bet on anyone with a career BB/K of 127/347.

    It's likely the Cubs soured on Emmanuel Ramirez after finding out he wasn't Pedro Olivero, but the 28 months older Ramirez. Now 24, Ramirez had a career minor league ERA of 2.12 entering this year. He walks too many players, and his slider isn't a great pitch yet. Mid-90s heat is enough to retire AA batters in small workloads, but Ramirez likely won't be a reliever in the Majors. Wilton Chavez is another victim of agegate, adding three years to make him 26. His ERAs have generally been in the low-4.00s, making this year no surprise. Landing a chance on the Expos won't be a problem, but players like Chavez are a dime a dozen with the Cubs. I'll take Leicester, even after yesterday, thank you.

    As for the bad players, there isn't a lot to say. Matt Bruback's probelms must be frustrating, because he was looking to be on the verge when the Cubs dealt him. He was worse than Wellemeyer or Leicester then, and now he's even worse than Chavez. Travis Anderson and Mike Nannini were one-year rentals, and both give up far too many HR to be successful anytime soon. Smyth has moved from the Braves to the A's organization, and while his H/9 is now below 9.00, he allows way too many walks, and way too few Ks. Finally, I liked Felix Sanchez at the beginning of the year, and find his struggles to be quite confusing. I still think he has a future as a LOOGY, though there is seemingly something wrong with him now.

    Also needed in a proper evaluation is how those young players we've acquired have done. Much excitement has been garnered about not only the Nomar acquisition, but the landing of Matt Murton as well. I called the former Cape Cod home run champ the current Cubs' eighth best prospect, and is shooting for the title as the best minor league Hendry acquisition. Here is his competition, not including the players the Cubs subsequently traded away:

    Jared Blasdell: 2-4 4.44 46/48.2 49/31 5 (AA)
    Russ Rohlicek: 4-5 2.21 35/57 56/40 1 (AA)
    Jason Karnuth: Not With Cubs (Tigers organization)
    Jeff Verplancke: Not with Cubs
    Jon Connolly: 10-5 2.77 138/133 93/28 9 (A+)
    Richard Lewis: .329/.391/.532 in 380 AA AB
    Gookie Dawkins: .274/.328/.438 in 281 AAA AB
    Andrew Shipman: 2-1 3.32 30/40.2 44/20 5 (A+)

    The first four were acquired in the 'firesale' of 2002, which hasn't amounted to much. Rohlicek is the Cubs' answer to Ramirez, a solid reliever with way too many walks. His H/9 and HR/9 and really low, and since he's left-handed, he has a chance, albeit an outside one. Blasdell is a less exciting reliever, right-handed, with no shot.

    Obviously, Connolly and Lewis are the two worth talking about. Connolly was the minors' ERA leader of 2003, but is pushed off prospect lists due to 'bad stuff'. But if he keeps these numbers up, stuff doesn't matter much. Lewis broke out last year in the Arizona Fall League, leading Hendry to believe there was more than his career .255 average would suggest. It was a fantastic call by Hendry, seeing that Lewis has recently been promoted to AAA. Lewis might replace Mark Grudzielanek next year, though I believe re-signing Todd Walker as a bench/back-up option would be a good idea.

    Gookie's numbers look bad overall, but he's hitting .348/.412/.565 since joining the Iowa Cubs. Once viewed as Barry Larkin's successor, the Cubs were forced to release Rey Ordonez and trade Ricky Gutierrez just to give him an everyday AAA job. At 25 years of age he's still worth the shot, though I believe he'll be a minor league free agent at year's end. Someone will bite, you can bank on that.

    Conclusion

    With a re-evaluation of Hendry, I think I've proven my thesis that he's one of the game's best. His Major League decisions are historically beneficial, and the yield seldom works out. Jones is an arm surgery waiting to happen, but Francis Beltran and Brendan Harris should be on the Washington Senators' roster in 2005. I like all three players, but we have depth at each of those positions, and I love Nomar. Plus, I have confidence in my GM, one of the game's best, to get him re-signed.

    WTNYAugust 11, 2004
    Makings of a Star
    By Bryan Smith

    "It's so gratifying to see this kid come in here and do that, this kid wasn't fazed at all. He had good poise all night long...This kid is maybe going to pick us up offensively. Dontrelle's been doing it on the hill. This is what we've been looking for, a little spark on the offensive side. This guy's a threat now.''

    - Florida manager Jack McKeon on June 20, 2003

    This kid, the one McKeon speaks of, was the greatest Marlin prospect in their short history. This kid was willing to move from the hot corner to an outfield corner, just for his shot in the Majors. This kid hit a home run in his fifth Major League at-bat, a 419-foot walk-off home run. And yes, this kid is also shaping up to be the greatest Marlin ever, period. Finally, he really is a kid, turning 21 in April of this season.

    As Rich Lederer moves further in his Abstract series, he will likely detail a piece in the ’84 Abstract called “Where Does Talent Come From.” In this article, James attempts to identify that background and age of players by team. For example, James tells us that the 1983 Boston Red Sox received more production from homegrown players than anyone else. But how does this relate to us? Well, when identifying age, James creates four age brackets: young (up to 25), prime (26-29), past-prime (30-34), and old (35+). This is what I take issues with, more specifically, his ‘young’ age bracket.

    Without statistical evidence, I propose the young bracket be seperated into young (22-25), and developmental (up to 21). Coaches would be the first to tell you that the ages 17-21 shape a player, whether he chooses the college route or not. A high school player, if he is a real prospect, should spend his developmental years in the minors, debuting in the Majors around the age of 22. The sabermetric world has began good studies on the developmental years, particularly Dayn Perry and Craig Burley. While these deal with players spending their developmental years in the minors or college, I wish to focus with Major League players still in their d-years.

    And this brings us back to the lanky 21-year-old from the beginning, better known as Miguel Cabrera. His play undoubtedly played a chief role in a resurgent Marlins team that ultimately became World Champions. His mature play landed him an ESPN the magazine cover shoot, but with his publicity came vocal doubters. Some existed within the depths of All-Baseball, which spawned an argument on the home page shortly before the season. I took Cabrera’s side, using my list of comps to bullishly predict a .200/.300/.400 line. Yes, buyers please step forward and collect your prize.

    Fact is, Miguel has exceeded not only the predictions of his critics, but his supporters as well. Rather than watch quietly, I want to recognize the greatness Cabrera has displayed. His transfer from an A-ball doubles hitter to Major League slugger was unusually quick...historically quick. Miguel’s power spike is a sight, evidence for the ‘old age’ types that swear power is a learned and developed trait. His league-by-league Isolated Power numbers:


    League ISO
    GCL 0.092
    Mid 0.114
    FSL 0.147
    Sou. 0.244
    MLB 0.219

    While most players spend developmental years in the minors, Cabrera has spent his final ‘d-year’ season tearing up Major League pitching. Rarely, if ever, do we see 21-year-old superstars, making Cabrera even more special than he gets credit for. I mentioned Cabrera being part of a special group before the season, and not only has that not changed, but the group has become more impressive. In every 11.7% of his career at-bats, Miguel Cabrera has had an extra-base hit. When establishing a minimum of 90 XBH, a number he’s sure to pass, only six players have done better.

    Met Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Hal Trosky and Ted Williams. These six had a better XBH/AB rate than 11.7%, and only these six. Four Hall of Famers, and one surely destined for his day in Cooperstown. Trosky, once only trailing Lou Gehrig as the AL’s best first basemen, is the only bust on this list. Trosky’s career was shortened by an early retirement caused by headaches, and like Michael Jordan, had an unsuccessful go at a comeback later in his career. After these six, we have eleven more that were between the Cabrera rate and 10.0%. This group doesn’t exactly have the success rate of the aforementioned six, but there is still three Hall of Famers, two in Ken Griffey Jr. and Ron Santo that should be, and one Andruw Jones. The eleven, ranked by their pre-22 XBH/AB:


    Name XBH%
    Ken Griffey Jr. 10.10%
    Cesar Cedeno 10.30%
    Ron Santo 10.40%
    Ruben Sierra 10.50%
    Vada Pinson 11.00%
    Orlando Cepeda 11.00%
    Bob Horner 11.10%
    Hank Aaron 11.10%
    Tony Conigliaro 11.20%
    Andruw Jones 11.20%
    Frank Robinson 11.30%

    In my belief, these numbers alone create a good list of comparable players. But, while this is a start, I’m also under the belief that strikeouts and walks are very telling of a player’s future. So, the below table documents how these 18 players rank in terms of both OBP-AVE (DIS) and K/AB:

    Name DIS Name K/AB
    Williams 0.103 Ott 0.074
    Ott 0.097 Trosky 0.091
    Foxx 0.094 Aaron 0.093
    Mathews 0.092 Williams 0.105
    Santo 0.072 Foxx 0.120
    Robinson 0.071 Santo 0.131
    Jones 0.068 Horner 0.143
    Griffey 0.068 Cedeno 0.144
    Cabrera 0.067 Pinson 0.152
    Conig. 0.066 Cepeda 0.152
    Trosky 0.058 Griffey 0.154
    Pinson 0.056 Robinson 0.158
    Rodriguez 0.052 Sierra 0.175
    Aaron 0.048 Mathews 0.179
    Cedeno 0.043 Rodriguez 0.191
    Sierra 0.039 Conig. 0.206
    Horner 0.037 Jones 0.244
    Cepeda 0.034 Cabrera 0.260

    A couple observations about this table:

    - First, we see the interesting similarities between Tony Conigliaro and Andruw Jones. The pair have immensely similar numbers in DIS and XBH%, and are respectively the two worst in K/AB. Conigliaro, the youngest player to lead a league in home runs, also saw his career end early, due to vision problems. Jones always flirts with his own greatness, including four straight 30-HR seasons, six straight Gold Gloves, and 202 postseason at-bats.
    - I like these lists because they begin to show the divide between less talented players (read: Sierra, Pinson, Cedeno), and some of the all-time greats (Williams, Ott, Foxx). If anything, this only further proves the importance of the BB and K.
    - Finally, the K/AB chart shows a huge dependence on time period. Cabrera and Andruw Jones have the worst, with Sierra, Griffey and A-Rod all lurking closely behind.

    The latter point leads me to the next part of this project: league-adjusted statistics. Using the always amazing Baseball-Reference, I figured what a league average player would have done in our three categories over the time period of each of the 18 players. And then I divided the player by the average, multiplied by 100, and came away with a stat similar to OPS+. Rather than make three different tables, here is one with the 18 players adjusted statistics in each category, ranked by XBH+:


    Name XBH+ DIS+ K+
    Williams 181 147 99
    Trosky 178 83 92
    Mathews 168 139 143
    Conig. 158 102 116
    Foxx 155 141 152
    Horner 154 58 95
    Cedeno 151 65 87
    Robinson 147 113 113
    Ott 147 167 89
    Pinson 145 88 97
    Cepeda 141 53 101
    Aaron 141 70 74
    Santo 135 113 82
    Rodriguez 135 75 106
    Griffey 133 103 94
    Jones 132 103 124
    Cabrera 130 97 135
    Sierra 127 58 102

    Wow. We see that Cabrera slips to from seventh to 17th, largely because the league average XBH% in 2003 and 2004 is right around 9%, which is extraordinarily high. Cabrera drops from first in strikeouts, falling behind Eddie Mathews and Jimmie Foxx, but still in front of Andruw Jones. His DIS+ of 97 is right around league average, very similar to the numbers of Jones, Conigliaro and Griffey.

    Overall, there is no question that Cabrera matches up best to Jones, who has fallen quite a bit behind Conigliaro in terms of XBH+. Jones is a bit superior in every category, but very narrowly, so much that it won’t make a difference. While he stole bases earlier in his career, Andruw only stole four bases in 2003. He’s hit 66 extra-base hits every year since turning 22, and is considered in his ‘prime season’ this year. While staying solid, I expect Jones to never again reach the player he was between ages 24-26, a scary notion for Cabrera.

    Miguel will likely fall somewhere between Jones, Griffey and Ron Santo. The former Cub saw his decline start after the age of 29, with his prime years right where James slated him (26-29). Griffey’s well-documented struggles began during a similar time period, with 1993-1994 being his best seasons to date.

    While Cabrera has already bested my predictions once, I expect him to follow a similar career pattern to the aforementioned three. While he might be one of the NL’s most feared hitters between 2006-2008, by 2012 we will see a sharp decline. It won’t take much to become the Marlins’ best player ever, but Cabrera still has a long way to prove he’s a future Hall of Famer.

    WTNYAugust 09, 2004
    Off My Chest
    By Bryan Smith

    Note: the following article is a breed between a mission statement and a collected group of 'shout-outs', read at your own discretion.

    A while back, I chose to change the focus of this site to minor league analysis. Not only is it immesely important within a Major League organization, but it's also vastly uncovered by the media. Will's site has had some great posts on the purpose of the 'weblog world', all leading to the fact that our job is to keep the media honest. If Rich Lederer thinks Bert Blyleven is getting screwed, he sees it as his job to write about it. When Christian and Alex see flaws beneath the Cubs' surface, they'll say it, where as a beat writer might just think it. Just imagine what Will Carroll's former newsletter has transformed into.

    My job? I like to think that it's going to be minor league reporting. I want fans to know who's next long before they wear Major League colors. I want fans to know if the guy their team stuck in a deal won't be another Bagwell or Brock. Obviously, the conglomerate known as Baseball America offers this in fantastic form, but I want to make sure they're not a monopoly. Work, and starting a new experience at the Hardball Times, has derailed what was once a daily blog. When things are more routine next April, if not sooner, minor league content will be available daily. Pushing myself is simply the only way this site will match the great ones I am surrounded by.

    But at the same time, I recognize I'm not alone in the minor league world. As previously mentioned, Baseball America is one of the best magazines in the world, and the Prospect Report one of the Internet's best features. Dayn Perry has started to focus on youth at BP, and has seemingly found his niche. When creating my preseason prospect rankings, I often mentioned Mike Gullo, who writes at the Minors First. On Deck Baseball is a site that not only offers solid daily reports, but also a 'Future 500' to boot. Finally, Jeremy Deloney has a minor league blog that averages about four good posts a day, as well as some solid work at MVN. I hardly view these guys as competition, but rather more people joining the minor league push.

    All the previous sites are general minor league sites, but many others are more specialized. Just like an avid fan will follow his teams' beat writer, many sites offer daily minor league reports that help keep me up with the minors' latest. This is Brad Dowdy's specialty, and he offers great, detailed reports at No Pepper. At the Batter's Box, one of the sites 23 writers follow each of the Jays' teams daily. Not only that, but we also get the occasional post like this, putting stats truely into context. Avkash Patel does the same at the Raindrops, offering inciteful posts on many Mets minor leaguers, along with near-daily updates. Readers of this site don't need me to prove Fabian's Yankee intelligence, which is available not only regularly in my comments, but also at his site. Finally, with all the Mariner sites on-line, it's nice to see someone just choose one area.

    Few people know their teams as well as Joe Ptak and Jamey Newberg, and I urge you to read both. At the Cleveland Indians Report, Ptak provides detailed analysis of both Major and minor league happenings. Ptak is extremely knowledgable, and his annual draft analysis is priceless. I shouldn't have to boast Newberg, because if you miss his daily e-mail, you're truely missing out. Newberg represents everything Texas Ranger, providing more on the Rangers than anyone else. Heck, the guy even writes an annual book...no one can compete with that.

    Ranking prospects is a difficult task, and a few sites kep team rankings updated that are invaluable. Dave Cameron, who wrote some great columns at Prospectus, handles that job over at U.S.S. Mariner. This is where I first discovered some kid named Felix Hernandez, who is now my second overall prospect. The aforementioned No Pepper debuted a 'Hot 30' this year, which has always been very helpful to me. Lastly, reading all about the upcoming Brewers' system is available at Brewerfan.net, where their list is expanded to fifty names.

    As I once mentioned in a THT article, I haven't been a baseball fanatic as long as a lot of people. But it was minor league baseball, and Kerry Wood's twenty strikeout game, that put me over the top. You'll never find perfect baseball in the minors, but stories from Miguel Cabrera to Bucky Jacobsen are enough for me. I'll try to always have minor league baseball be my focus- please keep me honest- with much more content coming in the future.

    Please, to help not only me but also my readers, drop links to other minor league blogs in the comments. The blog world is becoming much too big for my surfing to handle, but any daily minor league report will be read by these eyes.

    WTNYAugust 06, 2004
    No Debate
    By Bryan Smith

    Felix Hernandez is the best pitching prospect in baseball.

    I offer this statement with little doubt; teenagers like this don’t come often. Seattle signed the 18-year-old right-hander out of Venezuela, and since the move has paid greater dividends than they could have ever imagined. Hernandez has flown through four levels, stopping just long enough to dominate at each one before moving on. His start came in the Northwest League, where few people could believe his fastball came from the arm of a seventeen-year-old.

    After finishing the year in the Midwest League, the Mariners courageously started their blossoming prospect in the California League. While expected to give him challenges, Hernandez yawned through the league, posting a 2.74 ERA in sixteen appearances. This led ‘King Felix’, as the boys at U.S.S. Mariner call him, to become the youngest player in the Texas League. Hernandez took a small break from professional ball in July to play in the Futures Game, an exhibition of the game’s best, when Hernandez showed intrigue like no one else. In fact, here was my report after watching the game:


    There was nothing nearly as exciting as watching Felix Hernandez, my top ranked pitching prospect, as he pitched to hitters nearly six years older than him. The 18-year-old seemed to have a strut walking around the mound, showing extreme confidence despite having to face Prince Fielder and David Wright to lead off the inning. Felix led off the inning with a two mid-90s fastballs, though the Milwaukee first basemen took the second one the other way for a single. Hernandez than went to a 82-84 mph, jaw-dropping curveball on three of the next four pitches, eliminating David Wright in quick order. Koyie Hill led off his at-bat taking a Hernandez fastball to second, where Ruben Gotay and Joel Guzman turned an impressive 4-6-3 double play.

    Armed with a high-90s fastball and mid-80s power curve, Felix shows uncanny poise while on the mound. His only bad start came in his fourth Texas League appearance, when the Frisco Roughriders roughed up the teenager for six runs in only 2.2 innings. Subtract that, and Hernandez has a season ERA of 2.64, compared to 3.03 with the start added. To see how Felix has arrived at that season ERA, I thought it would be beneficial to give his month-by-month statistics:
     
    Mon. IP ERA H/9 K/9 W/9
    April 20.2 3.48 7.84 11.76 3.05
    May 33 3.00 8.73 9.27 2.45
    June 38.1 2.11 8.22 12.44 2.35
    July 26.2 4.05 8.44 8.10 3.71

    Remember that Hernandez spent July in the Texas League, which should temper your opinions of the month. As the stats show, King Felix was dominant in June, allowing three runs in his final four starts, which spanned 27.1 innings, 38 strikeouts and only four walks. None of the eight home runs he has allowed came in June, though I should say three of his eight allowed homers have come against Diamondbacks prospects: Carlos Quentin on 4/21, Jamie D’Antona on 5/11, and Jesus Cota on 7/6.

    In the latest Baseball America, Jim Callis writes a concerned article that such a young arm won’t be able to handle the stress of the 2004 season. Always a worry, Callis points to Doc Gooden, who avoided arm injuries until age 24, when he had already become the backbone of the Mets’ rotation. Hernandez doesn’t exactly parallel Gooden, who threw 191 innings at 18, and entered the Majors with a 4.67 BB/9 ratio from the minors. In fact, here is what Gooden’s minor league line looked like when entering the Majors:


    League IP ERA H/9 K/9 W/9
    Appy 65.2 2.47 7.26 9.05 3.43
    NYPL 13 4.15 7.62 12.46 2.08
    Caro. 191 2.50 5.70 14.14 5.28
    Total 269.2 2.57 6.17 12.82 4.67

    And for quick comparison’s sake, here is what Felix Hernandez has thus far:

    League IP ERA H/9 K/9 W/9
    NWL 55 2.29 7.04 11.95 3.93
    Midw 14 1.93 5.79 11.57 1.93
    Cali 92 2.74 8.32 11.15 2.54
    Tex 26.2 4.05 8.44 8.10 3.71
    Total 187.2 2.73 7.77 10.98 3.07

    To put this into context, Hernandez would need to pitch 82 more innings to match Gooden’s 269.2 before turning nineteen. Furthermore, to match his peripherals, Felix would need a 2.20 ERA, 2.52 H/9 (23 allowed), 17.01 K/9 (155), and 8.34 W/9 (76). While the ERAs are seemingly close, Hernandez is more hittable, and more controlled. Though I should mention, according to a past Baseball America story, Hernandez has yet to unveil a slider in the low-90s, a pitch that would surely boost the K/9 considerably.

    While I could spend time comparing Hernandez to Jeff Francis or Matt Cain, the fact is that Hernandez is clearly in front of both. He has age on the Rockie, and pitchability on the Giant. With the slider, Hernandez will have three devastating pitches, with two (fast and curve) that can be thrown for strikes at any time.

    If dominant, Mariners brass admits they will not hold their prized prospect back. But Felix hasn’t been great in AA, with two rocky starts in his first five. I think the 18-year-old should be shut down after a couple more starts, and definitely not allowed to participate in Winter Ball for his native Venezuela during the offseason. Felix should start next year in AA, providing a boost for Seattle’s rotation at about the time Zack Greinke arrived: late May.

    Seattle fans should be excited, but careful not to call Hernandez the second coming of the Doc. Bill Bavasi must be careful with the King, who is not only the best pitching prospect in baseball, but the second best overall prospect in the minor leagues.

    WTNYAugust 04, 2004
    The NOW Debate
    By Bryan Smith

    During Spring Training, many people would have told you that Joe Mauer, B.J. Upton and Alexis Rios were the nation’s top three hitting prospects. Mauer, the consensus top choice, graduated to the Majors on Opening Day. His season has been clouded with a knee injury, but must still be viewed as a success considering his .308/.369/.570 line. Rios was next to hit the AL, landing the call on May 27. The club stuck with him through a 9/50 start, but after a .343/.381/.495 July, has received solid play from their prized 23-year-old. After these two hit the Majors, debate began on which two players trailed Upton.

    An easy choice was David Wright, the 21-year-old third basemen sporting a Scott Rolen comparison. Wright was finishing a .363/.467/.619 season in the Eastern League when people started wondering if he might be better than B.J. Upton. Dayn Perry, BP’s minor league guy, wrote a great piece on the debate last week, proving Upton emphatically. But Wright was still second, and by great lengths, thanks to showing few flaws in his entire game. The question became, who was the game’s third-best hitting prospect? Or better phrased, who immediately trailed Wright in third base rankings?

    Dallas McPherson or Andy Marte? Pick your poison. The two are no longer battling for second or third, but first after watching Wright and Upton debut. Wright has struggled a bit since receiving a hero’s welcome in the Big Apple, though he did hit his second home run on Sunday, fittingly when Upton was called up. But Lou Piniella chose not to play Upton on Sunday, instead choosing his first game to be Monday, where he went 1/3 in front of a nationally televised audience. His departure leaves a gaping hole for the top spot, one surely filled by either McPherson or Marte.

    Point #1 will lean towards Marte: age. McPherson was selected in the second round of the 2001 draft out of the Citadel. Three years later, Dallas is on the heels of his Major League debut at 24-years-old. Marte is a far different case, as the Braves signed the Dominican when he was just 16-years-old. That came in 2000, meaning Atlanta’s top prospect is in the Southern League at the tender age of twenty. While youth is always a positive in prospectdom, Moneyball readers will surely attest a college education ain’t bad. McPherson spent three years at the Citadel, posting these numbers in the process:


    Year AB AVE ISoP ISO
    1999 87 0.241 0.089 0.081
    2000 233 0.378 0.061 0.219
    2001 242 0.347 0.083 0.227
    *ISoP is simply OBP-AVE

    Though his overall slugging went down from sophomore to junior season0, this is more indicative of a decline in singles, seeing that he had six more extra-base hits. His plate discipline returned to freshman form, showing his overall game improved in 2001. McPherson was a great talent in a draft filled with them, though I’m surprised the seemingly complete college athlete was nowhere on Billy Beane’s wish list.

    After signing relatively quickly, McPherson was sent to the Provo Angels, where he had 124 at-bats in the Pioneer League. Across Rookie League ball, over in the Appalachian league, the Rome Braves were busy unveiling a 17-year-old third basemen that managed 125 AB.

    In true Perry style, their side-by-side Rookie League comparisons:

     
    Name AB AVE ISoP ISO
    McPherson 124 0.395 0.065 0.210
    Marte 125 0.200 0.124 0.072

    Interesting is how Marte’s numbers parallel McPherson’s...as a college freshman. Low average, no power, lots of walks, yeah, Dallas knew that story well. While age will be a constant theme here, let me say that in 2001, Andy Marte was the age McPherson was as a high school junior. Dallas’ numbers were as they should have been, dominating, almost a statistical repeat of his sophomore year in college. His average was way up, with Isolated Patience and Power numbers only percentage points from his 2000 year.

    Staying conservative, the Angels put McPherson into the Midwest League. Atlanta, despite Marte’s 2001 struggles, showed the confidence to put the 18-year-old into the Sally League. Their low-A numbers:


    Name AB AVE ISoP ISO
    McPherson 499 0.277 0.104 0.150
    Marte 488 0.281 0.058 0.211

    McPherson changed into a different player overnight, becoming someone we hadn’t seen before, and haven’t seen since. His thirty steals were a career high; his .427 SLG was the lowest since his freshman season. The ISO was a still solid .150, and his Isolated Patience was over .100 for the first and last time of his professional career. As for Marte, the comparisons to McPherson’s college years continue, as his 2002 can be viewed as the sophomore season. His IsoP reached an all new low of .058, but his ISO was above .200 for the first time. This can be attributed to the 53 doubles he hit, showcasing just how much power was in that bat.

    Then came 2003, when McPherson truly broke out of his shell, giving the Angels confidence he could be their 2005 third basemen. The team was aggressive, promoting him half way through the year, so his high-A stats will only represent 77 games. Atlanta stayed on the ‘one level per year’ pace with Marte, very young for the Carolina League at 19. The numbers:


    Name AB AVE ISoP ISO
    McPherson 292 0.308 0.096 0.298
    Marte 463 0.285 0.087 0.184


    Again, we see the similarity between Marte’s minor league numbers, and McPherson’s from college. While his overall line doesn’t look quite as impressive as the 2002 line, we saw his Isolated Patience go from .058 to .087. His drop in ISO, still at .184, is due to Myrtle Beach, one of the minors’ most extreme pitching havens. Over in the California League, Dallas McPherson became feared, seeing his ISO rise to .298. His 1.010 OPS was ridiculous, leaving some to call the 23-year-old the Angels’ best prospect. High praise in a system with Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis and Ervin Santana, wouldn’t you say?

    Between 28 games last year and 68 this season, McPherson nearly had a full season of work at AA. Combining the season’s statistics was a wee bit difficult, so I can’t promise the OBP and SLG are exact (though close). Marte’s numbers are his current stats through Sunday:

     
    Name AB AVE ISoP ISO
    McPherson 364 0.319 0.088 0.316
    Marte 261 0.284 0.089 0.295

    Story #1 here is Andy Marte, who has become atop prospect after taking his ISO to .300-like levels. Anyone worried that an ankle injury would derail Marte was wrong, considering his number 17 and 18 home runs came in a game last week. His Patience stayed the same, but now we get to see how important the milestone of reaching 20, and leaving the FSL really are. As for McPherson, this is basically the same story told in the California League: ISO over .300, OPS over 1.000, yawn. Note to Bill Stonemann: don’t worry about talking with that Troy Glaus guy.

    Finally, the updated AAA season numbers for McPherson, also through Sunday:


    AB AVE ISoP ISO
    124 0.290 0.046 0.404

    Evaluating his numbers from a whole, we see a four-system decline in Patience, and the same four-system rise in Isolated Power. Who knows if McPherson will stay in this form, someone that doesn’t walk much, or revert back to his old .090 Isolated Patience numbers. His .404 ISO is insane, but remember, Salt Lake is a hitter’s haven.

    Of all the numbers I just threw at you, I most recommend comparing the AA numbers of the two. Marte, four years McPherson’s junior, had a higher IsoP, and an ISO only .021 points behind. While his contact skills have been a bit lower than McPherson’s during their professional careers, he looks prime to make a leapfrog in the peripheral categories.

    If I had to guess, Marte should mold into a .285/.380/.520 player, becoming an All-Star with the Braves. He should be on the Alexis Rios path, starting the year in the International League and getting the call around next June. What Scheurholtz does between now and then is anyone's guess, but we better stop calling them out of the race.

    As for McPherson, his future doesn't appear to be so clean cut. His evaporating walk numbers are discouraging, even despite some fantastic slugging percentages. He appears more along the lines of .300/.360/.500, though the SLG I expect to be volatile throughout his career. Like the third basemen that precedes him, I expect Dallas to have huge ups and downs in his career. He'll never be the player Hank Blalock is across the division, but a middle of the order threat for sure.

    There's really not a story here folks, Andy Marte is the top prospect in baseball. He's one of the Southern League's most dominant hitters at the age of twenty, and his numbers reflect a huge breakout down the road. Avkash Patel be damned, the Braves just might never stop being contenders.

    WTNYAugust 02, 2004
    News Flash (not really)
    By Bryan Smith

    B.J. Upton, the consensus top prospect in baseball, has been summoned to the Major Leagues. The full story is here at ESPN, with lots of quotes from Upton and Lou Piniella.

    It appears Upton's first games will come as a designated hitter, likely the Devil Rays ploy to not show Tampa his only weakness: defese. After that stretch, Julio Lugo will move to second base, with Upton taking his everyday spot at short. Lugo didn't seem thrilled with the prospect of switching positions, saying, "I can't control whatever they do."

    The story says that Chuck Lamar is interested in re-signing the 28-year-old Lugo to a contract extension. A little overlooked this season, Lugo has been solid this season at .280/.344/.414, especially thriving in the two-hole. Not seen in this story is that Lamar is also looking to sign Upton to an unprecedented nine-year contract, buying out both his auto-renewal and arbitration years. I like the thought, especially since Lamar is obviously trying to establish good relations with the best player he's ever been around.

    Back to the main point of this post, Upton's debut should be televised today on ESPN at 7:15. It comes against the Boston Red Sox, and more specificially Tim Wakefield, who had a 3.75 ERA in July.

    Update: Upton is indeed playing DH tonight, and is in the ninth spot in the order. First and last? Probably.

    Update 2: First AB: 4-3. Upton swings through two knuckleballs to start his Major League career, both of which seemed a bit long. After watching the third pitch go by, Upton smokes a 71 mph knuckler to second base.

    Update 3: Walk. Wakefield throws four pitches, each right around the zone. Upton showed some nice plate discipline, a trait that's been present throughout his minor league career.

    Update 4: Carl Crawford singles to right field, and Upton flies to third base. Rocco Baldelli then hit a ball that Bill Mueller backhanded, giving Upton enough time to score his first Major League run.

    Update 5: B.J. Upton's first hit came on the tenth pitch he saw as a Major Leaguer, a 68 mph knuckleball from Tim Wakefield. Upton took the ball the other way, smoking it between Bill Mueller and Dave McCarty on the right side. Carl Crawford promptly hit into a fielder's choice, ending Upton's bid for a second run.

    Update 6: Upton strikes out against Keith Foulke to end the game. It took all of five pitches before Foulke got Upton swinging on an 81 mph change up low in the zone.

    Final Upton Debut Stats: 1/3, BB, R, K, 3.75 P/PA

    WTNYAugust 02, 2004
    More Where That Came From
    By Bryan Smith

    Kazmir

    In June of 2002, the Pittsburgh Pirates had the decision between Brian Bullington and B.J. Upton for the first overall choice. Seeing a higher chance for success in Bullington, they went with the 'Moneyball' theme, selecting a college player over a high school one. Tampa, like the Cubs had with Mark Prior the year before, picked up the best player in the draft with the next overall selection. Upton, was the best prospect in baseball until yesterday (he was called up), while Bullington is struggling in AA.

    Following the Devil Rays selection, Jim Bowden had a difficult choice in the three spot. The Reds, known more for economical choices than anything else, were left deciding between two high school pitchers: Chris Gruler and Scott Kazmir. With Kazmir's bonus demands growing by the day, Cincinnati was eventually forced to go with Gruler. Similar decisions took place for the Orioles and Angels, who drafted Adam Loewen and Joe Saunders in the fourth and 12th spots respectively. The Mets, never letting green effect their course, chose Kazmir fifteenth in the draft. Since then, Kazmir has flown to 10th on my prospect lists, while Gruler has pitched all but ten starts in two years, Loewen's ERA is 4.61 in low-A, and Saunders is slowly recovering from arm surgery.

    And then there is 2003, where due to a pitiful Major League season in 2002, the Devil Rays were slotted first for the June draft. After first considering every player under the sun, Tampa eventually narrowed their selection down to Delmon Young and Golden Spikes award winner Rickie Weeks. Convinced waiting for greatness was better than quick rewards, Lamar selected the outfielder with Major League pedigree first overall. Young is currently hitting .295/.348/.487 in the Sally League, while Weeks has a .254 batting average in AA.

    Upton, Kazmir, Young. All in one organization, projecting out to one team. No club in recent memory has had a trio of prospects like Tampa does now. Some say this will turn out to be Derek Jeter, Billy Wagner and Albert Belle. Some call for more, some predict less. But, the Devil Rays join the Cleveland Indians as the only teams to have three top 20 prospects, with Tampa's lot far better than Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Aubrey.

    What could make this all the scarier for AL East fans is that Jeff Niemann fell to Tampa in the most recent Major League draft. After a 17-0, 11.70 ERA season as a sophomore in 2003, Niemann was a lock for the number one pick before offseason arm surgery shook his career for a scare. Niemann struggled a bit through his junior year, finishing the season with an ERA, gasp, above 3.00. But scouts are convinced the 6-9 Rice product will revert back to his old self with rest, mixing a high-90s fastball with a power curve sure to land him in a top 25 prospect list. Four in the top 25? Yikes.

    For this to happen, Tampa must show increased awareness of their prospect’s arms. I thought the Mets, even before Rick Peterson arrived, did a fantastic job with Kazmir. Due to the combination of his small size and big fastball, scouts have always been wary of the southpaw’s arm. Another scouting concern is whether Kazmir, who lacks a good offspeed pitch, will make it as a starter. Lord knows he’ll be given every opportunity to do so, judging from Dewon Brazelton’s 97 different chances. Tampa has lacked an ace since coming into the league, and now have found a potential ace somewhere between B.J. Upton and Delmon Young.

    Huber

    If we’re praising GMs for stealing prospects, Allard Baird deserves some recognition for his New York heist. Baird, who took loads of heat during the Royals’ long sub-.500 run, is seemingly becoming more accepted of late. In full rebuilding mode shortly after the Beltran trade, Baird saw fit to acquire Rule V pick Jose Bautista for absolutely nothing (cash). And now, after about 20 harmless games in KC, the club miraculously found an interested buyer in Pittsburgh. So with the Mets affixed on Kris Benson, Jim Duquette was quick to send Justin Huber to the Royals.

    Admittedly a bit overrated in my rankings, Huber is still undoubtedly one of the game’s top five catching prospects, if not second. Bad defense has led people to believe the Australian will be forced to make the Carlos Delgado, catcher to first, switch. Some wonder whether Huber has the power to succeed there, though his current ISO (nearing .200) is quieting those complaints. John Buck will likely be given the Royals job in 2005, and his performance there should dictate where Huber ultimately ends up.

    Hill and Murphy

    This move alters Arizona’s future considerably, as the 2007 everyday lineup now has Hill behind the dish, not Robby Hammock. It is a great upgrade, as Hill is currently my sixth best catching prospect in baseball. He’s not the threat that Justin Huber is at the plate, but he’s a better catcher and more Major League ready. If you’re keeping tabs on who will be playing in Phoenix come 2007, you should be thinking along these lines:

    C- Hill
    1B- Hillenbrand or Cota
    2B- Hairston
    SS- Santos
    3B- Tracy
    LF- Jackson
    CF- Drew (toss up at short)
    RF- Quentin

    Now the question is if Bill Murphy fits into the plans as well. Most places would tell you that Murphy is a better acquisition than Hill, but not me. Despite good stuff, Murphy has allowed far too many walks and home runs to project into a future All-Star. In fact, there is probably an equal probability he ends up a reliever. Murphy would have probably landed in my next group of ten prospects, while I would guess Baseball America thinks of him much higher.

    Also worth noting is the fact that with Murphy moving on, the new #2 Marlins prospect is Jason Stokes. Murphy had jumped over both Stokes and Scott Olsen, who was almost out in Bill’s place. Stokes has fantastic raw power, and with Choi’s trade, projects to be the Marlins; 2006 first basemen. Someone to watch is Robert Andino, who flew through short-season ball, and is flying up the shortstop rankings. Keep watching to see if he slows down, because if not, the Marlins may have another Edgar Renteria.

    Cubs, old and new

    Justin Jones had taken the worst fall of a Cubs’ prospect this year (well, maybe Blasko), dropping from the #2 prospect to somewhere around 8-10. This can be attributed to both the sore elbow he’s complained of since his professional arrival, and his less-than-dominating performance in the Midwest League. Often compared to Scott Kazmir, Jones has taken a much slower path than his southpaw counterpart thus far. Still, Jones’ stuff alone is enough to make him the Twins’ third or fourth best pitching prospect. And what did they get him for? Oh, just the opportunity to start Justin Morneau everyday. If it’s true, that defense at first base is overrated, Minnesosta improved themselves in a big way here. Now if they could just find a buyer for Luis Rivas!

    I was a bit surprised to see Harris included in the deal, as he’s been a favorite of Hendry’s since he was managing the farm system. Harris, who Baseball Prospectus once compared to Albert Pujols (sorry, couldn’t pass that one up), was coming on strong at AAA before a meaningless promotion. The infielder hit .400 playing everyday in June, along with a .700 slugging percentage. My guess is that Harris will be the 2005 Washington Senators’ third basemen, with Maicer Izturis at shortstop. The switch-hitting Izturis is hitting .365/.447/.442 in AAA, with only twenty strikeouts and eight errors in 74 games. Included in the Scott Stewart trade this past winter, the 23-year-old has hit around .440 in his last 20 games.

    And finally, there is Matt Murton, who Theo Epstein admitted he grudgingly included into the Nomah! trade. Murton was originally drafted by the Cubs, decided to go to Georgia Tech, and later won the Cape Cod home run crown. He was one of Epstein’s first draft picks, all after hitting .344/.434/.536 during his final college season. While this is a bit short of Mark Teixeira’s .427/.547/.772 line at GT, it still projects very well. Murton’s power has dipped a bit this season, but the numbers should improve in his final month, seeing as Daytona favors hitters. Murton, in my opinion, becomes the eighth best Cubs prospect, with this being my top ten:

    1. Felix Pie
    2. Angel Guzman
    3. Bobby Brownlie
    4. Ryan Harvey
    5. Andy Sisco
    6. Brian Dopirak
    7. Luke Hagerty
    8. Matt Murton
    9. Sean Marshall
    10. Bear Bay

    That’s still a damn good top ten considering it lost two players yesterday. Ol’ Hendry does it again.

    Mets, old and new

    Almost immediately after posting my final 100, a reader asked me why I didn’t include Matt Peterson onto the list. My guess, judging from New York stereotypes, is that same reader agrees with my decision now that Peterson has moved onto Pittsburgh. I just don’t understand why, after striking out 153 in 137.2 innings last year, Peterson’s K numbers are so far down this year. A sub-9.00 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB is just not the makings of a great prospect, though the Pirates will be praying I’m wrong. But, Peterson joins a strength of the organization, as the Pirates have become flush in pitching prospects: Van Benschoten, Burnett (doesn’t apply), Bullington, Peterson, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Bobby Bradley, etc.

    Mets’ fans were in depression this weekend, seeing that their GM traded away about half their farm system. But to solace New Yorkers, few teams would complain about owning the rights to the Wright-Petit-Milledge trio. Jeff Keppinger helped ease the pain as well, as Mets fans saw the 24-year-old second basemen was hitting .334/.384/.409 in the Eastern League. Keppinger reminds me a bit of Dustin Pedroia, one of the Red Sox first picks this year, and even more so after seeing Keppinger’s last college season saw him hit .389/.480/.691. Keppinger’s career minor league line should read about .310/.360/.410 right now, which should be good enough for some team to want him this winter. That’s surely what Duquette must be thinking, as he’s stuck with Reyes and Matsui up the middle for a while.

    Dealt: A Ranking

    Since I just can’t get enough of these rankings, I thought I’d rank the 20 prospects that changed teams this weekend. Below, along with their new organizations:

    1. Scott Kazmir- Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    2. Justin Huber- Kansas City Royals
    3. Koyie Hill- Arizona Diamondbacks
    4. Bill Murphy- Arizona Diamondbacks
    5. Matt Peterson- Pittsburgh Pirates
    6. Justin Jones- Minnesota Twins
    7. Alfredo Simon- San Francisco Giants
    8. Brendan Harris- ‘Montreal Expos’
    9. Matt Murton- Chicago Cubs
    10. Jeff Keppinger- New York Mets
    11. Joselo Diaz- Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    12. Henri Stanley- Los Angeles Dodgers
    13. Josh Hancock- Cincinnati Reds
    14. Bartolome Fortunato- New York Mets
    15. Travis Chick- Florida Marlins
    16. Matt Merricks- Los Angeles Dodgers
    17. Brad Correll- Philadelphia Phillies
    18. Jon Huber- Seattle Mariners
    19. Anderson Machado- Cincinnati Reds
    20. Reggie Abercrombie- Arizona Diamondbacks

    That’s all for today, I’ll be back with more come Wednesday.

    WTNYJuly 31, 2004
    Dealt
    By Bryan Smith

    Below are the twenty prospects included in deals during the last two days. I'll have more tomorrow on the lot, but I wanted to get their names, and new teams, out there first:

    - Bartolome Fortunato (Mets)
    - Scott Kazmir (Devil Rays)
    - Joselo Diaz (Devil Rays)
    - Alfredo Simon (San Francisco)
    - Jon Huber (Mariners)
    - Justin Huber (Royals)
    - Matt Peterson (Pittsburgh)
    - Jeff Keppinger (New York)
    - Josh Hancock (Reds)
    - Anderson Machado (Reds)
    - Brad Correll (Phillies)
    - Matt Merricks (Dodgers)
    - Travis Chick (Padres)
    - Koyie Hill (Diamondbacks)
    - Bill Murphy (Diamondbacks)
    - Reggie Abercrombie (Diamondbacks)
    - Henri Stanley (Dodgers)
    - Justin Jones (Twins)
    - Brendan Harris (Expos)
    - Matt Murton (Cubs)

    I still think the Braves have the game's best farm system, but my guess is I'd put the D-Rays at #2. Check back tomorrow for more.

    WTNYJuly 28, 2004
    Tidying Up
    By Bryan Smith

    In case you missed it, the product of all my prospect rankings is in the post below. I haven’t responded to any comments in the last week, all in an effort for this article. Now, it will return to the old format, when I try to respond to each comment quickly and thoroughly. Thank you very much for your input throughout my rankings, my readers were the sole reason to go from ranking 40 prospect to 100.

    Today’s article is somewhat of a notes piece, with the focus on answering the questions that have recently been posed to me. After that, I will give updates on a few graduated prospects and a look back to March. But first, time for some...

    Reader Mail Part 1: When 100 is Just Too Small

    Richie asks: Hey great job on the rankings, just wanted to know where Matt Peterson of the Mets would rank. He's been pretty good at AA, dominating at times but wild others.

    Matt Peterson is a very interesting case, but I can assure you that he would fall into the top 110. The former Big 10 hurler has met every challenge the Mets have posed, with one noticeable flaw: not a ton of strikeouts. Yes, I know studies have discounted the importance of the minor league K/9 rate, but if most of the prospects on this list are better, it’s hard to ignore.

    But, let me say, if Peterson keeps the ERA down and the strikeouts low, my opinion of him may change. There have been many pitchers succeed without a lot of K’s, it is just too early to judge if Matt Peterson can be one of those guys. What is more worrisome than the K/9 is the K/BB, sitting at a pedestrian 2.00 this season. Also, after giving up only 4 HR in 2003, Peterson has allowed 11 in just over 100 innings this season. Remember, it’s the peripherals, not the ERA that makes a prospect. But, don’t rule Peterson out as a top prospect, I’m sure not.

    JH asks: Ok, now I see that you consciously left Lopez off the list...so I guess my question now would be why?

    Followed by Paul: I have to agree that the continued omission of Jose Lopez appears just obstinate at this point. Perhaps some explanation on your prospect philosophy would help (only high upside). It seems to me that Lopez is a near lock to have a starting job next year in Seattle and should be a regular for a long time to come. I'll grant that he doesn't project as a certain All-Star, but he does fairly project to be an above-average major league infielder and that should place him safely above the likes of Mark "call me Randa, if I'm lucky" Teahen.

    If I’ll admit anything, I’ll say that Jose Lopez is a better middle infield prospect than Alberto Callaspo, who I mistakenly ranked 100. Jose’s omission was the product of being a bit short-sighted, something I’ll try to improve with each ranking. But, in my opinion, Jose Lopez is no better than the #100.

    Why is that? Jose Lopez is a third basemen, as his defense has proved throughout the minors. And while his offensive power numbers are nice, I just don’t know if he projects to hit enough for a third basemen. Purely contact hitters can fall victim to some pretty bad luck, and I’m not convinced Lopez isn’t the hitter we saw last year. His patience is ever-so-slowly improving, but a .331 OBP still isn’t acceptable. You have to love the power, though ever reaching his current .496 slugging isn’t likely in the Majors, especially at Safeco.

    I’m sorry Lopez fans, I just don’t see the potential here. Maybe another Jose Valentin, or just another bench player with some pop.

    Reader Mail Part 2: On the Verge

    Fabian comments: ...It's nice to see Melky Cabrera get some attention. While I think he will develop more home run power, I don't think he will have that much. From the times I've seen him play he doesn't seem to have the body-type or swing of a guy who will give you very good home run numbers. I think he will be a very good leadoff or number two hitter though. Also, the reason I think you don't hear him hyped is that the entire Yankee OF will have their contracts run out over the next two years so he might be the rare Yankee prospect to get a shot.

    First, it will be smart to mention that I have not seen Melky Cabrera play baseball. In fact, there is a very minute number of prospects I have witnessed, so my opinion is strictly based off word of mouth and statistics. With that being said, I do think that Cabrera may develop power in the upcoming seasons.

    As an 19-year-old in 1987, Bernie Williams split an injury-shortened season between the short-season NYPL and the Florida State League. Though his season only amassed 164 at-bats, Williams only had 7 extra-base hits, all doubles. His age 20 season, 1988, was spent in the A-ball Carolina League, where Williams hit .335. His Isolated Power jumped from about .042 in 1987 to .152 in 1988. While his overall numbers would take a hit in 1989 (AA and AAA), Williams would again see a rise in Isolated Power. Finally, in 1992, Williams would graduate to the Major Leagues with a career .173 ISO.

    Cabrera, also a switch-hitting centerfielder, has split this season between the Midwest League and the Florida State League. Cabrera hit better in the Midwest League, but the FSL has given Cabrera a boost in Isolated Power. Nineteen extra-base hits in 171 low-A at-bats gave Cabrera a .462 slugging, in other words a .129 ISO. Though he’s hitting only .295 with Tampa, Cabrera’s .438 ISO is a Williams-esque .148.

    But, there are differences between the two. Williams stole at least 18 bases in every minor league season, while Cabrera only has 10 this season. Bernie’s plate discipline was superb in the minors, where he finished with 412 walks against 454 strikeouts. This is good for a 1.10 K/BB rate, while Cabrera’s 54/31 mark this season works out to be 1.74.

    I really like the Cabrera-Williams comparison, and will keep an eye on that in the coming years. Fabian is right, the Yankees will have some holes in the outfield coming soon, and as of right now I expect Melky Cabrera to fill one of them.

    OFF asks: Probably not top 100 worthy, but I was wondering what do you think of Met third-baseman Aarom Baldiris [307/385/389]? Lack of power is a concern but I fully expect him to go crazy next year once he reaches the hitter-friendly EL. Obviously he'll have to switch positions if he's ever going to play in Flushing, but a move to 2b can only help his prospect status. I may be alone on this one, but I think he could be Fonzie-lite.

    First of all, you read it right, the kid’s name is Aarom Baldiris. As Avkash Patel pointed out to me, the third basemen announced it before this season, though it was news to me last week.

    After breaking out of his shell a bit last year in the Sally League, Baldiris is up to his old tricks with a frustrating .082 Isolated Slugging Percentage. His patience and contact skills are superb, but a third basemen simply can’t be successful with a SLG below .400. OFF pointed out Edgardo Alfonzo, who I’m not convinced is a great comp to Baldiris.

    Alfonzo’s Florida State League season came in 1998, when Fonzie was just 19 years old. The then-third basemen hit .294 that season, and walked 57 times in 494 at-bats. His low .409 slugging was a bit concerning considering his position, but there had been worse seen than a .115 ISO. In 1994, Alfonzo would hit .293 in the Eastern League, though his .460 slugging would give him a huge boost in ISO. His fantastic ’94 season would earn him an everyday job in 1995, at the tender age of 21.

    Baldiris is 21-years-old right now. He’s not playing everyday in the Majors, instead he’s in the midst of Fonzie’s age 19 season. But despite being two years older, his ISO is about 26% less than Alfonzo’s was in the FSL. His plate discipline is just as good, but his defense and speed weren’t like Edgardo’s in his hey-day. The idea of moving a third basemen with 17 errors in 94 games to the middle infield does not sound like a good one, even if Baldiris can’t hit enough to stay at the hot corner.

    Baldiris is blocked by two great players, Wright and Reyes, which should put him on the trade block for the Mets. He fits in somewhere behind Matt Peterson as the Mets’ ninth or tenth prospect, which gives him decent value. I think he’ll end up in a different organization, though I don’t think Baldiris will ever be anything special.

    Reader Mail Part 3: East Coast Depth (or lack thereof)

    Dave responds: So, if I remember correctly, that's two Red Sox in the entire list of 100, right? And they're not even quality prospects? Brendan Moss was low 70s, as I recall. Sigh. At least we have Youkilis. Yay.

    You recall correctly Dave, as Brandon Moss (#70) and Abe Alvarez (#72) were the only two Red Sox prospects to make this list. Before Theo Epstein’s tenure began, the Red Sox farm system was disastrous. Dan Duquette loved trading from the minors, and Mike Port did not have the time to fix the problem. Bringing in a philosophy similar to that in Moneyball, though not as extreme, Theo has helped to slowly build was might be a respected farm system.

    After Youkilis, there really isn’t a lot in the higher levels. Readers of this site know how much I like Alvarez, who earned a spot start against Baltimore last week. And despite struggles this year, it’s a little early to rule out Kelly Shoppach as a prospect. Brandon Moss was mentioned, and his status is rising steadily as his great numbers stay consistent. Another good low-level prospect is Hanley Ramirez, who has put himself back on the map after doing well in short-season ball. Finally, Sally Leaguer Jeremy West has pretty good numbers at the first base position, and should be Moss’ Bash Brother for the next few years.

    Furthermore, the Red Sox have had some great output from their draft, as well as their most recent Caribbean signing. The club’s first three picks, Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovy have all gotten off to great starts. Pedroia, often unfairly compared to David Eckstein, is hitting .406/.486/.594 through his first 8 games. Dobies has a 1.86 ERA in 9.2 innings, during which he’s struck out 16 and walked one. Hottovy, a closer at Wichita State, has yet to give up a run in 10 innings this year, allowing five hits and no walks. Finally, expensive sign Luis Soto has a .261 ISO in 88 at-bats, despite concerns about his defense and plate discipline.

    There is more on the way Dave, and this organization should be top 15 before too long.

    OFF also asked: I was wondering what do you think of Brett Harper? He's a little bit too old for the league, but a 1.000 OPS in the FSL is pretty impressive.

    A 45th round selection, Brett Harper entered the year with a career .094 ISO in 607 at-bats. The 23-year-old has broke out with St. Lucie this year, hitting .350/.440/.564 before being promoted. He’s played just five games in the Eastern League, but already has three extra-base hits.

    Harper is undoubtedly a better prospect than Craig Brazell, a player that caught the eye of many Mets’ fans after last season. If AA is not too much a test, Harper can no longer be considered old for his league, and could be considered a real prospect. I would probably rank him a little over Baldiris at this point, and I think of him as a poor man’s Michael Aubrey, without the great defense.

    Thanks for the questions, please leave any more in the comments. And now, it’s time for...

    Ex-Prospect Updates

    In today’s first edition of EPU, we will detail the rise of hitters Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, Alexis Rios and David Wright. Also, the poor performances of Abe Alvarez and Travis Blackley demand looks as well.

    Of these six, Morneau has highest bragging rights, as his good play has led to Doug Mientkiewicz’s upcoming trade. Morneau’s 0-5 series opener against Chicago ended what had been a nine-game hitting streak, during which he had three home runs, and hit .333 in 39 at-bats. Morneau’s season numbers are up to .278/.316/.528, proving that his recall to the Major Leagues had been much overdue. The Canadian will surely not be playing in the Olympics, as the Twins have every intention to give him an everyday job in the second half. With a few more walks, Morneau will become far and away the best Twins’ hitter...he might be anyway.

    After beginning his Major League career 0/4, Grady Sizemore has reached base in each of his last six games, raising his line to .294/.455/.588. The high slugging is due to a July 25 home run, when Sizemore went yard on former top prospect Zack Greinke, who demands an upcoming article himself. Grady has taken the Indians centerfield job by storm, a position he isn't likely to relinquish anytime soon.

    Still looking for his first career home run is Alexis Rios, who isn’t exactly living up to the Dave Winfield comparison I gave him before the season. But the 6-6 outfielder isn’t doing too shabby, hitting .346/.384/.519 in the month of June. Alexis passed the 50-game mark over the weekend, and doesn’t appear to be looking back. The Blue Jays will give Rios no competition for playing time next year, when they expect the 23-year-old to start hitting a few more home runs.

    David Wright, ranked second in my midseason list, is struggling the most of the three, hitting .167 through his first 24 at-bats. But things looked to be improving on Monday, when Wright hit his first career home run off Expos’ starter John Patterson. Wright, the youngest of the bunch, should have the slowest transition to the Majors. But, this should not prevent the Mets from trading Ty Wigginton, who saw his trade value jump with an early-July hot streak.

    I already mentioned that Abe Alvarez was given a spot start last week, though I didn’t say how badly it went. Alvarez went five innings, allowing eight hits and five walks before being taken out with 95 pitches. Home runs by Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora helped contribute to Abe’s five earned runs, but I think it’s too early for Red Sox nation to cut bait on Alvarez. He was pushed a little fast this year, though I hope Alvarez is at least allowed to give Bronson Arroyo some competition next Spring.

    Travis Blackley was ranked 25th in my preliminary rankings, but his Major League pitching thus far has indicated it should be worse. Through five starts, Blackley has a 10.38 ERA, thanks to allowing eight home runs and 20 walks in 21.2 innings. I just can’t understand this, because it doesn’t correlate with what Travis has done in the past. Seattle likely won’t keep running Blackley out there, but I hope they help fix this problem before his confidence is too trashed.

    Finally, a look back...

    Lastly, I wanted to point a few things I wrote on March 5, in a piece entitiled “Break Out! Version 3.” In an attempt to identify potential minor league breakout candidates I wrote these tidbits...


    ATLANTA: Jake Stevens (LHP): In the third round of last June’s draft, the Braves made a typical choice. A left-handed Southern starter with a good body and good stuff. Like Dan Meyer and Marty McBride before him, Stevens already possesses two good pitches, and a third is on the way. The Braves do great work with needy young starters, and I expect the same from Stevens this year.
    ...
    BOSTON: Abe Alvarez (LHP): For some reason, I trust Dirtbags. Long Beach State has a fine baseball pedigree, producing talent ranging from Jason Giambi to Jered Weaver. Lost in the Weaver hype last year was Abe Alvarez, the southpaw that Theo spent his first ever second-round pick on. Alvarez lacks the ‘stuff’ that scouts love, but he always gets the job done. The New York-Pennsylvania league was a joke, as Alvarez didn’t allow a run in nineteen innings. The team will likely push Alvarez, who could end up in AA this season.
    ...
    CHICAGO: Bobby Brownlie (RHP): Already somewhat of a prospect, I am under the belief that Brownlie is ready to explode. Had it not been for arm fatigueness, Brownlie was a lock for a top five pick, instead dropping more than twenty choices to the Chicago Cubs. Brownlie has one of the better curveballs in the minor leagues, and also changes speeds pretty well. He’s an injury concern, but the Cubs gave him the last month of the season off, he’d been playing for eight months straight. Brownlie could catapult threw Cubs’ rankings this year, don’t be surprised if he ends up #1 next year.
    ...
    COLORADO: Jeff Francis (LHP): I talked about Francis when I put him in my top 50, and I’ll talk about him again. He is a prospect right now, but underrated by many. I’m under the belief that Francis will be a top ten pitching prospect in baseball next year, he offered the whole package in high-A last year. Francis was 10-1, 1.06 in his last thirteen starts, and is a dominating force on the mound. His future isn’t that bright due to Coors Field, but I expect Francis to be larger than Chin-Hui Tsao at this time next year.
    ...
    HOUSTON: Fernando Nieve (RHP): I hate praising Houston, but not many teams have been better at recognizing the small market for small pitchers. Nieve is not tall, but instead has sensational movement on his fastball. His peripheral numbers were much better than his ERA last season, and Nieve could break out big in high Class A this year.

    I don’t mean to toot my horn too much, but it’s cool to look back, ain’t it? I should mention I also wrote about Jeff Allison (currently in drug treatment), Jason Cooper (hitting .238 in AA), and Lorenzo Scott (hitting .183 in SS ball). But, I was just going for one.

    Hope you enjoyed today’s piece, come back next Monday for more.

    WTNYJuly 25, 2004
    Final 'Midseason' 100
    By Bryan Smith

    A reader in a previous post suggested putting all 100 together, and while a little tedious, I agreed. So, below are my top 100 prospects in baseball. Please note that this list denies access to any player with Major League experience before the 2004 All-Star Break, save Rickie Weeks.

    On Wednesday, I will get to the mailbag that I have promised. This will include questions about Matt Peterson, Jonathan Broxton, Melky Cabrera, Jose Lopez, Aaron Baldiris, Brett Harper, and the Red Sox system depth. Please, leave any other at the end of this post. Thanks!

    1. B.J. Upton- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- SS

    There really is no question about this one. Upton is everything you want in a premium prospect: he’s young, advanced, plays a premium position, has plate discipline and power. He can steal a base, and when he gets focused, can field. The last comment will no doubt be debated by some, but Wait ‘Til Next Year correspondent Daniel Feinstein assures me that highlight reel plays come as often as errors with this kid. Upton will reach the Majors by year’s end, and the Devil Rays slow advancement to a legitimate team will take a huge growth.

    2. David Wright- New York Mets- 3B

    No player has vaulted himself so far forward as David Wright has since the end of the 2003 season. A great Arizona Fall League put Wright into the top five for third base prospects, and his insane .363/.467/.619 line in AA makes him the top. Like the man in front of him, Wright has all the tools, but the most amazing fact is that he already has 48 extra-base hits, 47 walks and 22 stolen bases. Wright will be changing the scope of the Mets lineup by August, and comparisons to Scott Rolen and Howard Johnson are still valid.

    3. Felix Hernandez- Seattle Mariners- SP

    King Felix made great impressions in a brief stint as a 17-year-old last season, and nothing has changed this year. Seattle thought moving Hernandez to high-A would be a challenge, similar to what Bill Bavasi had done with players like Greg Miller in Los Angeles, but Hernandez was more than enough for California League hitters. Hernandez struck out 114 batters in just 92 innings, while only allowing 85 hits, five home runs and 26 walks. His first start in the Texas League was impressive, but the Mariners might think about shutting Hernandez down the closer he gets to 150 innings. Waiting until mid-2005 for his debut would be a smart move.

    4. Dallas McPherson- Anaheim Angels- 3B

    I admit, I didn’t buy much into the McPherson hype before the season, remembering it was a huge hot streak that made his numbers last year, as opposed to a consistent hot streak. That all changed this year, and McPherson has already earned a promotion to AAA following his 20 home runs and 1.064 OPS in the Texas League. He’s off to a hot start at Salt Lake, hitting five homers in his first ten games. McPherson will help replace Troy Glaus for the rest of the year, and also make him expendable in 2005.

    5. Andy Marte- Atlanta Braves- 3B

    I said before the season that Marte was likely to have a catastrophic rise to the Majors similar to Miguel Cabrera in 2003, but a severe ankle sprain has prevented that from becoming truth. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping before the injury, but a .237 ISO is enough for me. Marte is still only twenty years old, and it is probable that Marte and Chipper Jones will make up the 2005 Braves corners.

    6. Grady Sizemore- Cleveland Indians- OF

    Don’t be thrown by Grady’s numbers, they are among the most deceiving in the minor leagues. A bad wrist hindered his numbers for April and May, but a June average near .400 took the overall line to .306/.372/.462. Sure, these aren’t bad numbers, but my argument is they are hardly indicative of where Sizemore stands as a player. He profiles to be a perennial .300 hitter, and with the Indians weakest position being centerfield, his path is clear as day.

    7. Jeff Francis- Colorado Rockies- SP

    There is nothing I’m more proud of about my first prospect ranking than putting Jeff Francis in the top fifty. This was an extremely controversial choice, but the way Francis finished the season convinced me that he was primed to break out. And that he has done, so much so that if the season ended today, Francis would have the Texas League pitching triple crown. Twelve wins, 2.11 ERA, 133 strikeouts. When you consider he’s only walked 22 in 106.2 innings, you might think he’s perfect. But like any other prospect, he doesn’t come without flaws. Francis has allowed nine home runs this year, and his future currently stands to be in Coors Field, which does more than a little to his projectability.

    8. Prince Fielder- Milwaukee Brewers- 1B

    Another controversial choice here, as Fielder’s .801 OPS is well below others on this list. But remember, Prince is still just a baby in prospect terms, and he’s doing this well for a guy in the Southern League. Cecil’s son has lost weight, but has also slipped considerably since a red-hot April. Fielder still has a .192 ISO, plays a decent first base, and should hit thirty home runs before 2004 ends. He’ll also take a little longer than expected, not debuting until 2006, or becoming a permanent mainstay until 2007. That’s a recurring trend around a lot of the Brewer prospects, a system that has taken a bit of a hurt this year.

    9. Jeff Mathis- Anaheim Angels- C

    This may be a little high for Mathis, but the top ranked catcher gets a little boost in my mind. Mathis has slowly become a very good defensive catcher, and while Angel pitchers might miss Bengie Molina, Jeff’s bat will make them forget quickly. His .788 OPS is hardly anything to brag about, but he has an ISO of .176 and is on pace for about 70 walks. Few teams can put their catchers towards the middle of the order, but it won’t be long before that luxury is available to the Angels. Mathis will need one more year in the minors, but I really believe he’s ready.

    10. Scott Kazmir- New York Mets- SP

    Trust me, I’m being generous ranking Kazmir this high, as everytime he pitches, I think the inevitable move to the bullpen is coming the next day. He’s been hurt most of this season, but since coming back has hardly dominated the Florida State League that we thought he mastered a year ago. Maybe Kazmir will be able to turn into Billy Wagner, but I find it hard to believe he’ll make it as a starting pitcher. For now, we wait, amazed that a southpaw so small can generate such hard power on his pitches. Kazmir needs to turn his season around in the second half, or his ranking won’t be so generous the next time.

    11. Franklin Gutierrez- Cleveland Indians- OF

    Sure, Gutierrez is hardly hitting home runs like he did last season, but I wouldn’t count those kind of numbers out in the future. Gutierrez hit so well in AA this season that he was recently moved up to the International League, though it appears his immediate future is blocked by the Indians outfield of Lawton-Sizemore-Gerut. Gutierrez still managed 30 extra-base hits in 249 Eastern League at-bats, and while only five were home runs, I’d expect more to start going over the fence soon. I have only two real complaints about Franklin: first, his stolen base numbers are down significantly this year, and he also doesn’t walk enough yet, not even on pace to reach 50 walks.

    12. Matt Cain- San Francisco Giants- SP

    With Cain, the numbers speak for themselves. I can try to justify my pick by telling you that Cain mixes a mid-90s fastball with one of the game’s best curveballs, or I can just give his California League numbers: 7-1, 1.86 ERA, 58H, 17BB, and 89K in just 72.2 IP. The dominance has continued since being moved up to the Texas League, where Cain has allowed just five earned runs in his first four starts, good for a 1.88 ERA. San Francisco could use some rotation depth, so Cain will be given a shot as early as next Spring Training.

    13. Dan Meyer- Atlanta Braves- SP

    More astounding numbers come from the top Atlanta pitching prospect, a compliment considering that as many as six Brave pitching prospects made good arguments for this list. Meyer, who doesn’t throw spectacularly hard, was the Southern League ace in the first half, with a WHIP below 1.00 and a K/BB above seven. He struck out 86 batters in sixty-five innings, proving that he can mix control with good stuff like few other players can boast. His ceiling may not be as high as the previous four pitchers, but of the group, I’m most sure Meyer will reach his.

    14. Jeff Francoeur- Atlanta Braves- OF

    Yes, the Braves are back to having the game’s best minor league system. Francoeur, their former first round pick, is having a great season in a park not exactly fit for hitting. He’s the best of the three high-A outfield prospects you’ll see in the top twenty, merely based on potential. He already has 36 extra-base hits, giving him an ISO of .209. He walks about as much as Franklin Gutierrez does, numbers we hope improve as he goes up the ladder. Andruw Jones is rumored to be on the trade block, and if he goes, Francoeur will eventually replace him in centerfield. But as the Cubs have learned with Corey Patterson’s slow development, there is simply no reason to rush him.

    15. Clint Everts- Montreal Expos- SP

    Expos first round picks are not always justifiable, but Everts is an exception to the rule. After not pitching much last year, Everts has exploded to the tune of a 1.99 ERA. Last year’s top pick, Delmon Young, referred to him as the best pitcher he had faced yet. Everts has only given up three homers this year, and his K/BB is well over five. I’ve heard great things about his breaking ball, and there is no question that he is the jewel of a rather dry Expos system.

    16. Michael Aubrey- Cleveland Indians- 1B

    It’s possible that if the Indians had the first pick in last year’s draft, they still would have selected Michael Aubrey. After a fantastic college career, the Indians though high-A would be a good destination this year. They were wrong. Aubrey tore up the Carolina League, walking more than he struck out, and showing enough power to give him a .988 OPS. Aubrey was promoted to AA after only 60 games, a fantastic compliment for a position player a year removed from college. The Eastern League has proven to be a challenge, but I have no doubt that with one more year’s work, the Indians will have a new first basemen in 2006.

    17. Gavin Floyd- Philadelphia Phillies- SP

    No one has ever questioned the curveball of Gavin Floyd. But the Phillies, worried their prized right-hander might fall in love with the pitch, set quotas on just how often he could throw it. This is my explanation for why his numbers have never been that good, until this year. By the looks of him numbers, I would guess the right-hander can throw the curve whenever he pleases now, helping him to land a 2.86 ERA. His strikeout numbers, only 74 in 92 innings, are still a bit concerning, but his low H/9 and HR/9 numbers combat that quite nicely.

    18. Delmon Young- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- OF

    More than any other player on this list, this choice was made due to projectability rather than a deserving ranking based on their numbers. Young’s .334 OBP would be laughed at by some players on this list, but considering his age, an ISO just below .200 is fantastic. Young’s power is immense, and his second half will determine if he makes it higher than 28 (and I think he will) when my end of year rankings come out. Young likely won’t be a D-Ray until 2008, but who knows, maybe he’ll have Josh Hamilton to join him by then.

    19. Merkin Valdez- San Francisco Giants- SP

    After an early season injury, El Mago started to justify the hype he garnered all of last season. Formerly Manuel Mateo, Valdez was traded from the Braves, and the deal keeps paying dividends for San Francisco. Valdez joined Matt Cain in San Jose for awhile, forming the top 1-2 combination in the minor leagues. Valdez has recently been promoted to AAA, after walking only five in the 33.2 innings he pitched in the California League. Valdez also mixes in pinpoint control, a trait that should serve him well as he beats Cain to the Majors.

    20. Jeremy Hermida- Florida Marlins- OF

    Of Francoeur, Pie and Hermida, there is no question who is the most polished. Hermida has the best eye, the best ability to make contact, the cleanest defense, and the best baserunning. His stolen base numbers are down this year, but ending up with thirty stolen bases still isn’t out of the question. Power is not his defining trait, but Hermida’s .494 SLG more than holds his own for players on this list. My guess is that Hermida will follow Juan Pierre as the Marlins’ leadoff hitter, proving to be one of the best in the business.

    21. Cole Hamels- Philadelphia Phillies- SP

    I ranked B.J. Upton first on this list for a reason. I think he’s going to be an All-Star, bringing back the numbers that A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar touted in their hey-days. So, when reading Upton say that Cole Hamels was the best pitcher he had faced, I was shocked. Hamels, when healthy, has control of one of the game’s best change ups, and it won’t be long before that reaches the Major Leagues. Problem is, Hamels has only made four starts this season, and no matter how well they have gone, we can’t get a great read of where he’s at. This is my riskiest ranking, but instincts will allow him to round out my top ten.

    22. Jeff Salazar- Colorado Rockies- OF

    Last year it was Jeremy Reed that appeared out of nowhere, rising from Long Beach State all the way to hitting .400 in a second half promotion to AA. This year it has been another left-handed hitting corner outfielder that has surprised us with his contact and discipline at high-A. Salazar, formerly an Oklahoma State Cowboy, has now become the best Rockie position prospect, and for good reason. Salazar has a .347 average, more runs than games and more walks than strikeouts. He has 40 extra-base hits, and seventeen stolen bases, in only nineteen attempts. He looks perfect, much like Reed did last year, but I’m going to try to learn my lesson and wait before thrusting him into my top ten.

    23. Jose Capellan- Atlanta Braves- SP

    The fourth Brave in the top 25 is Capellan, a hard-throwing right-hander that made a mockery of high-A hitters before a promotion. Capellan, who can hit 100 mph on a radar gun, allowed only 27 hits and 11 walks in 46.1 innings at Myrtle Beach before rising to the Southern League. Capellan has stayed relatively consistent in terms of ERA and K/9 since the promotion, striking out 40 in 33.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA. There is still a possibility that Capellan will end up in the bullpen, he’s the kind that often turns into a closer, but first the Braves are going to have for Jose to slow down.

    24. Felix Pie- Chicago Cubs- OF

    Pie’s story is a good one, a small Dominican boy who walked into tryouts with no hype, and walked out with a contract. The Cubs continue to thank their lucky stars, as Pie has continued from where he left off last year. Still a little raw, it’s near impossible to conceive what kind of player Felix will turn into. His ‘raw’ power is still just that, but it’s the great speed and defense that lands Pie on this list. Common thought is that an outfield of Patterson, Pie and Ryan Harvey will be in Wrigley shortly after Sosa’s retirement, but I’ll have to see that to believe it. One thing I do believe, is that Felix Pie is going to become one darn good ballplayer, whether he develops the power or not.

    25. Conor Jackson- Arizona Diamondbacks- OF

    Doubles machine. This is what Jackson was last year after being chosen by the Diamondbacks in the draft. He was one of three corner college players chosen by the Diamondbacks, a group that Baseball America has called the Tres Amigos. Jackson is the better prospect of Carlos Quentin and Jamie D’Antona, thanks in large part to his amazing numbers this season. Before a promotion to AA, Jackson hit .345/.438/.562 in 258 at-bats. The slugging has decreased a bit since moving to the Texas League, but Jackson’s eye looks unbeatable, as his OBP is .476 after ten AA games. Jackson plays left field, and it won’t be long before the Diamondbacks firesale allows the team to trade icon Luis Gonzalez, Jackson’s lone roadblock.

    26. Jeremy Reed- Seattle Mariners- OF

    The aforementioned Reed has slowed down this year, and the fact that scouts have yet to buy into the sabermatrician’s dream led to Reed’s trade from the Chicago White Sox organization. Mariner bloggers have been more than pleased to land Reed, who has 38 walks against 34 strikeouts so far this year. Reed’s contact skills have diminished a bit this year, though I look for his average to pick up a bit in the Pacific Coast League. Reed’s power numbers have increased this year, giving more hope that he’ll be able to have the numbers that corner outfielders should have. Next year Seattle will put Raul Ibanez at first base, and Reed will have every opportunity in the world to take over in left field.

    27. Ervin Santana- Anaheim Angels- SP

    Like many of the pitchers on this list, Santana was hurt to start the season, but has been dynamite since returning to the minor leagues. Ervin was sent back to the Texas League, where he finished out his 2003 season, and has been the Travelers’ ace through his first eight starts. I admitted in my WTNY 50 that I didn’t buy into the Santana hype much, but his numbers support the claims that people as respected as Peter Gammons have made.

    28. Jeff Baker- Colorado Rockies- 3B

    Taken alongside Jeff Francis in the draft, Baker’s breakout has been clouded by Francis’ AA greatness. But don’t forget Baker, who joins Ian Stewart and Jeff Salazar in one of the best three position player combinations in the minor leagues. His OPS is also over 1.000, thanks to 30 home run power and a great batting eye. He’s very prone to strikeouts, there is no doubt that total will reach 100 (if not 120) by season’s close. Also, Baker has already made 20 errors at the hot corner, and while I don’t have a report on him, my guess is last year’s first round pick Stewart will force a move at some point. The idea of having Helton, Stewart, Baker and Salazar on the corners just might be enough for Dan O’Dowd to hang onto his job a little longer.

    29. Tim Stauffer- San Diego Padres- SP

    I didn’t like this pick by the Padres last year, thinking Stauffer’s numbers were hardly good enough to deserve a top five selection. But Stauffer has proven differently, as he is currently pitching in the Pacific Coast League, his third league of the season. While the Padres have drawn much criticism for their handling of the top pick this year, give the team some credit for identifying Stauffer last year. The right-hander had a 1.78 ERA in the California League after six starts, and a 2.63 ERA in eight Southern League starts. His peripheral numbers aren’t great, but the guy can pitch, and he’ll undoubtedly be the first starting pitcher chosen last year to make the Majors this September.

    30. Ian Kinsler- Texas Rangers- SS

    A lot of the people on this list I could have envisioned breaking out before the season started, but not Kinsler. According to Baseball America, the former University of Missouri shortstop was chosen based on his defense, not his bat. But it was the bat that convinced Ranger brass that the former 17th round choice could handle a move from the Midwest League, to the Texas League. After hitting .400 as a Clinton Lumberking, Kinsler’s OPS is again above 1.000 through his first seventeen games as a Roughrider. Texas’ infield is pretty blocked, but moving Soriano to center and Michael Young to second would be a great idea to make room for their new gem.

    31. Ian Stewart- Colorado Rockies- 3B

    The tenth pick in last year’s frat, Stewart has already displayed the most power from the 2003 draft. That kind of raw power, mixed with the thin air of Colorado, just might produce some freakish results. Stewart has more upside than Jeff Salazar and Jeff Baker, with a lot less polish. Ian will surely force Baker to pick up another glove, perhaps learning the art of left field. Stewart’s Sally League numbers are excellent, but just that, low-A numbers. I always try to take it with a grain of salt, but if he tops thirty home runs, that may not be an option.

    32. Joe Blanton- Oakland Athletics- SP

    Like I said with Delmon Young, Blanton doesn’t necessarily have the numbers to hang with other guys on this list. His ERA is nearing 4.00, and (gasp!) he’s allowed more hits than innings pitched. This is danger territory, but I’m intrigued by good control, and the ability to keep the ball out of the park, even in the Pacific Coast League. His top 40 selection is also due to the fact that even without Rick Peterson, I trust the A’s ability to develop pitchers. Billy Beane loved this guy out of Kentucky, and he’ll definitely be one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year in 2005.

    33. Angel Guzman- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Another pitcher rehabbing from injury, you’ll likely be taken back after reading Guzman’s rehab numbers from the Florida State League. The Cubs, who have done a good job handling sore arms of late, sent Guzman to the FSL to keep that arm warm an extra few months upon his return. While the top prospect’s 4.20 ERA is anything but amazing considering he was repeating the level, it’s his peripherals that astound me. In thirty innings, the right-hander allowed 27 hits, struck out 40, and walked zero. Once again, Guzman had a 40/0 K/BB in high-A, before being moved up to the Southern League. His high ERA tells me that his pitchability isn’t great, but expectations are still sky-high for the Cubs’ Angel.

    34. Justin Huber- New York Mets- C

    Being a catcher is great for a prospect, because you don’t have to have the numbers that most hitting prospects carry. Huber has slumped recently of late, but his season line of .272/.408/.460 is fantastic for a catching prospect. Huber’s defense is a bit lacking, but the Mets will concede that when considering his power and plate discipline. The Australian still must improve all facets of his game to stay on this list, because a poor second half will not only make him drop, but will cause a drop clear off the list.

    35. Jason Kubel- Minnesota Twins- OF

    Think Jeremy Reed 2003, without the plate discipline. Instead, Kubel has fantastic contact skills that led to a .377 average in the Eastern League before being promoted to AAA. Being an outfielder in the Twins’ organization is a death penalty, but Kubel’s 41 extra-base hits gives Terry Ryan one great piece of trade bait. This is another player on the list I forecast will drop by year’s end, but for now, I gotta give the kid his due.

    36. Daric Barton- St. Louis Cardinals- C

    Boy, I’ve never seen a high school kid so advanced in his first full year of professional play. Barton, about a year after being the first Cardinal drafted, is hitting an insane .331/.465/.566 in the Midwest League. Recent slumps have taken the average below .400 and the OBP below .500, but those numbers are the kind that makes someone a top prospect. I’ve heard pretty good things about his defense, but an early season injury has forced Barton to only play half of his 40 games behind the plate. Like everyone else here, we’ll have a much better feel for Barton in September, but two thumbs up so far.

    37. John Danks- Texas Rangers- SP

    I’m trying to be very hesitant with low-A pitchers this year, considering the early season struggles that Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir have seen. Danks is pretty comparable to the latter, but I just can’t see not putting him on my top 40 list. The hard-throwing southpaw ate up the Midwest League in fourteen appearances, thriving off the four-man rotation style format that Grady Fuson uses in the minor leagues. Last year’s ninth overall selection has a 3.39 ERA in three starts for the Stockton Ports, but barring injury, Danks is probably a better prospect than Kinsler.

    38. Yusmeiro Petit- New York Mets- SP

    Soothsayers have compared Petit to Sid Fernandez, a former Major League pitcher that had fantastic numbers in the minor leagues. The reason this comparison works is Petit, like Fernandez, had unreal numbers in fifteen low-A starts. In 83 innings, Petit allowed only 47 hits and 22 walks, against an insane 122 strikeouts. For those of you scoring at home, that’s a WHIP below 1.00, a K/BB above 5.00, and a K/9 nearing 13.50. Petit finds himself below a lot of Met prospects, but if these numbers continue, he’ll head the list in the winter.

    39. Bobby Brownlie- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Another forecast I’m proud of, I saw very good things from Brownlie this season, and he hasn’t let me down. Like Tim Stauffer, Brownlie doesn’t have great numbers, but I guess the better comparison is Gavin Floyd. Like Floyd, Brownlie has a great curveball that has led to a high HR/9 and low K/9, but a darn good ERA. If Matt Clement leaves Chicago next winter, and that’s a very likely scenario, Brownlie will be in a race with Guzman, Ryan Dempster, and many other Cub pitchers for the fifth spot in that vaunted rotation.

    40. Jesse Crain- Minnesota Twins- RP

    Relief prospects are generally overrated, but Crain deserves the hype he’s gotten. After rising through three levels last season, Crain has had a home in Rochester this year, appearing in 33 games as the Red Wings’ closer. But, Crain should be preparing for a move, as the Twins could no doubt use some help in the bullpen towards the end of the year. Crain might not be the immediate closer, but setting up Joe Nathan will be a wonderful way to start what will likely be a great career.

    41. Edwin Encarnacion- Cincinnati Reds- 3B

    An early season injury eliminated Encarnacion from my memory, but watching him in the Futures Game made me realize he should be on the list. After hitting .282/.339/.458 in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old, he spent 2003 hitting .321/.387/.484 in high-A. Encarnacion, once traded for Rob Bell, is back to his old self, with a line of .305/.379/.465 in AA thus far.

    These are fairly consistent lines, considering the ISOs (.176, .163, .160) and his Isolated Patience numbers (.059, .066, .074). At the age of twenty-one, Encarnacion is still young for the Southern League. His defense is said to be good at third, and while he won’t be stealing 25 bases like he did in 2002, he runs fairly well. It’s safe to say that Encarnacion will solve the Reds’ hot corner problem before too long, and even more so that he belongs in the top 75.

    42. Joel Guzman- Los Angeles Dodgers- SS

    Looking at Joel Guzman’s past numbers, you might be shocked at the year he’s having. But ask the Dodgers, who signed him for millions at age 16, and they’ll say it was only a matter of time. It’s hard to say where Guzman fits in as a prospect, he’s always looked overmatched until May of this year. His numbers seem similar to Franklin Gutierrez of 2003, meaning his .530 SLG will evaporate at higher levels. This hardly eliminates him from prospect status, as good contact, fielding and baserunning shortstops are hard to find. Few second halves will have more of a bearing on winter rankings than Guzman’s.

    43. Jake Stevens- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Brad Thompson, who will appear later on this list, was hyped more than many minor leaguers ever see with his 50+ IP scoreless streak earlier this season. Jake Stevens didn’t get the same attention, but between May 21 and July 10, Stevens didn’t give up a run either. In fact, the game that ended in was a five inning start in which the southpaw gave up one run, while striking out eight batters. His numbers have been superior to teammate Chuck James, and given Stevens’ age, his prospect status is rising.

    44. Rickie Weeks- Milwaukee Brewers- 2B

    Life can’t be easy for Rickie Weeks. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not making excuses for what has thus far been a sorry season, but his life has been non-stop ever since being chosen second in last year’s draft. A sensational player at Southern University, Weeks has struggled a bit in the Southern League, with a season line of .253/.369/.379. The Isolated Power is a little bad, but Weeks is a middle infielder, and he does have 25 extra-base hits. Things are going to click in the second half for Rickie Weeks, and I bet he’s in my top 30 at season’s end.

    45. Guillermo Quiroz- Toronto Blue Jays- C

    Since falling victim to a collasped lung at the end of last season, Quiroz hasn’t had the best health, falling victim to yet another injury this year. It doesn’t effect his long-term status, and he should have a fine second half. Kevin Cash, who had been projected to give Quiroz competition for PT, has been terrible for the Jays, basically handing the job to Guillermo. With Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross, and Quiroz projected to be in their lineup next year, and possibly Russ Adams and Aaron Hill as well, the Jays rebuilding can begin right now.

    46. Chris Burke- Houston Astros- 2B

    Is there a dreamier leadoff prospect out there than Chris Burke right now? The Astros will almost surely let Jeff Kent leave in 2005, letting their top prospect take the job up the middle. They are right in believing he’s ready for the job, as evidenced by his .325/.403/.507 line in the PCL this year. I don’t think the power surge will last in the Majors, but he might get to about 40 doubles some season, which ain’t bad either. Throw in the fact that he stole 22 bases before being called up, and you’ve got the 2005 Astros leadoff man.

    47. Kyle Davies- Atlanta Braves- SP

    I asked my friend Brad Dowdy about his thoughts on the three Braves’ pitchers in this list, and this is what he said of Davies:


    I could argue Davies ahead of Stevens after his two solid outings since being promoted to Double-A as a 20 year old. Everyone in the system has always known he has the stuff, it was just a matter of getting innings under his belt and the old cliché of “learning how to pitch”. Well, this is the season where he put it all together. He didn’t even blink when he moved up a level, and I don’t see any reason why that won’t continue.

    48. Dioner Navarro- New York Yankees- C

    Despite some power struggles this year, it’s hard to make a claim that someone other than Dioner Navarro is the top Yankees prospect. 2004 numbers explain why he’s behind Justin Huber and Daric Barton in terms of catching prospects, though that is very subject to change. In contrast, Navarro is behind Jeff Mathis and Guillermo Quiroz because of potential…particularly power potential. I like Navarro’s discipline, I think more of his contact abilities than a .271 average suggests, and have heard him to be an average defender. Power isn’t essential for a top 50 prospect, but a better ISO than .098 would be big here.

    49. John Van Benschoten- Pittsburgh Pirates- SP

    After obviously passing the Eastern League test, I was a little worried when John Van Benschoten struggled when reaching AAA. But things have picked up lately (excluding his last start), and John has an ERA sitting right around 4.00. Van Benschoten will have every opportunity in the world to make it with the Pirates, and given the right patience, I think he will. Unless VB has a big August, I doubt they’ll call him up, waiting for mid-2005 for his arrival.

    50. Lastings Milledge- New York Mets- OF

    By year’s end, Milledge could be sitting alongside Delmon Young as two of the best outfield prospects in the game. Milledge has five-tool capabilities that few can match, as seen in his combination of 27 XBH and 16 SB, in just 47 games. Some might be alarmed at the seven errors (high for an OF), but he’s young, and easily has the ability for centerfield. But, the problem with Milledge is his plate discipline, seeing as though his BB/K is an abysmal 5/42 this season. Corey Patterson, version 2.0?

    51. Carlos Quentin- Arizona Diamondbacks- OF

    One of the Tres Amigos, Quentin has seperated himself from the third member, Jamie D’Antona, with a disgusting performance since their group promotion. Well, he’s hit .357/.425/.529, which is very consistent with his California League line of .310/.428/.562. Quentin had Tommy John surgery last offseason, and it hasn’t appeared to slow him down one bit. Imagine this lineup card in Arizona coming soon:

    C- Robby Hammock
    1B- Jamie D’Antona
    2B- Scott Hairston
    SS- Sergio Santos
    3B- Chad Tracy
    LF- Conor Jackson
    CF- Stephen Drew
    RF- Carlos Quentin

    Jeez, maybe they’ll be back in the World Series before we thought!

    52. Josh Anderson- Houston Astros- OF

    While us sabermatricians try to act as scouts by analyzing numbers, it takes a Josh Anderson type to respect the real scouts. In last year’s draft, Anderson lasted until the fourth round, hardly the spot for a top 50 prospect. This is a situation when power isn’t key, when a .101 ISO on a .324 average will more than suffice. Why? At centerfield, Anderson is being groomed for the leadoff spot, where a .402 OBP and nearly fifty steals will pay off. Anderson, currently on the Reed path, should be ready for Houston in 2006, so don’t blame him for wanting Carlos Beltran to change addresses.

    53. John Hudgins- Texas Rangers- SP

    This convinced me: “I’ve never seen a better pitching performance in the minor leagues. Hudgins put every pitch where he wanted it, commanding a fastball that sat around 90 most of the night, mixing in a decent curve, and showing San Antonio hitters as dirty a changeup as those of them who eventually get to the majors might ever see. He dealt. He orchestrated. He was Greg Maddux.”

    - Jamey Newberg, Newberg Report (7/2/04)

    54. Mike Hinckley- Montreal Expos- SP

    Think Travis Blackley, without the strikeouts. While Hinckley has decent stuff, it’s hardly comparable to other guys on this list, but he always gets it done. After a 2.61 ERA in 10 Florida State League starts, Hinckley was moved to Harrisburg, where his ERA is a near-identical 2.58. His K/BB is more than 3.00, and his WHIP is 1.04. In my opinion, this is a time where pure stuff is just not going to win, and Hinckley’s pitchability makes him a good prospect.

    55. Chris Seddon- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- SP

    Dan Feinstein, a reader who also owns Montgomery Biscuits season tickets, wrote up this great scouting report on Seddon:

    Seddon pitched against the Greenville Braves here on Thursday night [ed. Note: May 27]. I went to the game. Seddon was much smaller than I expected. He is listed at 6’3” 170, but if I had to guess, I would have pegged him at 6’0” and even lighter than the program had him. He worked from the third base side of the rubber and used a lot of 12 to 6 breaking curve balls to befuddle the Braves, striking out 12 in 6 innings. His fastball was well targeted, but not too quick.

    56. Robinson Cano- New York Yankees- 2B

    In the comments section, reader Fabian tried to convince me to place Cano in front of Chris Burke. It didn’t work, but I thought his argument was definitely good enough to post:

    I don’t see how you can have Burke ahead of Cano. Burke is 24 and Cano is 21. Burke has been at AAA all year, and Cano was at AA for the first half before being promoted to AAA a few weeks ago. On the season Burke is hitting .325 with 30 extra base hits and a 33:36 BB:K ratio in 286 at bats. Cano is hitting .306 with 39 extra base hits and a 30:44 strikeout ratio in 337 at bats. Has Burke outperformed Cano? Sure. However, given the HUGE difference in age, I think Cano is easily ahead of Burke. Were it not for Rickie Weeks’ track record, I would be tempted to call Cano the No. 1 2B prospect in baseball.

    57. John Maine- Baltimore Orioles- SP

    Sort of like John Van Benschoten, in the respect that after posting insane numbers last year, Maine was more than qualified for the International League. Just to test it, the Orioles sent Maine to AA, where he went 4-0 in five starts, allowing 16 hits in 28 innings. It was obvious he was ready for the IL, but during his stay, Maine hasn’t been the pitcher of old. A 4.52 ERA and BB/9 upwards of 4.00 are some scary statistics, but the Oriole right-hander has been turning it up lately, so we’ll see how long this good pitching lasts.

    58. Eric Duncan- New York Yankees- 3B

    There is a lot to like about Eric Duncan, who has a Ryan Howard-like block up the line, almost assured of landing in a different organization at some point. Duncan was great in the Midwest League this year, and considering he had 37 extra-base hits and 38 walks in 78 low-A games, expectations are going to start raising about the teenager. But take caution, Duncan also struck out upwards of 80 times, and I have a feeling the FSL might be a little much for him.

    59. Chuck James- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Twenty-two is a bit old for the Sally League, and that was evident in the numbers for Chuck James. Before being moved up to Myrtle Beach, James was 8-2, with a 1.90 ERA, good for third in the league. James walked a bit too many considering his age, something to look for in higher levels. Also concerning is the fact that James has been suspended for much of the last month for unknown reasons. According to No Pepper, the ban was lifted yesterday, and we’ll see if the Braves ever leak out just why this happened.

    60. Adam Loewen- Baltimore Orioles- SP

    I said it when I put him in the top fifty last winter, and I’ll say it again, this pick is based solely on potential. But, if Loewen doesn’t get his act together soon, he’s going to keep falling, right off any prospect list. I’m sure people will hassle me with this pick, but just wait and see on this kid, he might jump out and surprise you. By the looks of things, it seems as though the Orioles’ Major League control problems are falling down to the minors as well.

    61. Josh Banks- Toronto Blue Jays- SP

    Like John Maine, Josh Banks has seen his BB/9 rise at a higher level, and it’s much of the reason Banks has a 5.77 AA ERA. And like Adam Loewen, if Banks doesn’t get his act together, he’s gone. But, it’s hard to ignore that Banks was one of the FSL’s best pitchers before getting sent up, largely due to a 7.50 K/BB. It’s now below 2.00, and without that, Banks is just another pitcher. This is something to watch in the second half, because the Blue Jays system has taken a bit of a hit since this winter.

    62. Zach Duke- Pittsburgh Pirates- SP

    I’ll admit, didn’t really know Zach Duke before starting this list, but I sure do now. A southpaw, Duke is the definition of a midseason All-Star, and like Joel Guzman, someone who could rise with a consistent second half. Duke has a Bob Gibson-like 1.39 ERA this year, a WHIP under 1.00, and is on pace to eclipse the 200 strikeout barrier. Maybe it’s Duke, and not Hinckley, who makes the better Travis Blackley comparison.

    63. Erick Aybar- Anaheim Angels- SS

    A recent power streak, six home runs in six days, has taken Aybar’s HR total to nine, and his XBH total to 31. He’s leading the California League with not only his .355 average, but also his 38 stolen bases. This is good and all, but Aybar has been caught 27 times, a total that has to lead the minor leagues. Aybar struggles like B.J. Upton does at short, but for the time being, he ranks first of the Angels’ middle infield trio of Alberto Callaspo, Brandon Wood and Aybar.

    64. Sergio Santos- Arizona Diamondbacks- SS

    Consider this my due for not giving Santos props last year. You have to respect Santos, a 2002 first-round pick, already with 30 extra-base hits. Shortstops with 25 HR power don’t come around everyday, so Santos has become the prime ‘Zona prospect. He’s also been iffy at shortstop, and with a growing body, there are concerns on whether he can stay there. I think Stephen Drew’s defense and rise through the system will determine if Santos moves elsewhere, because he probably has the bat for left field.

    65. Brad Thompson- St. Louis Cardinals- SP

    I’ve already touched a bit on Brad Thompson, and his remarkable scoreless streak to start the season. He’s come out of nowhere, and may end up taking a every-fifth-day starting spot before former top prospect Dan Haren. After a 1.76 ERA in AA, Thompson has struggled a bit with the Memphis Redbirds, allowing three home runs in 14.2 innings. A sinkerballer, Thompson’s second half will determine whether that streak was a fluke to be forgotten.

    66. Ryan Howard- Philadelphia Phillies- 1B

    Is there a better prospect in minor league baseball that’s as blocked as Ryan Howard? While a perfect world wouldn’t have the “every prospect is trade bait” mentality, I can understand if Ed Wade is willing to trade Howard, despite beind on his way to crushing the AA home run record. The power is unbelieveable, and unmatched by any prospects on this list. But, Howard strikes out a lot, and could reach the 150 plateau this year. He reminds me of a modern day Frank Thomas, not the 90s superversion: volatile average, lots ‘o power and walks, and unlike Frank, tons of K’s.

    67. Josh Barfield- San Diego Padres- 2B

    Very susceptible to an irreplaceable drop from my prospect lists in the winter. The 2003 California League MVP, Barfield has been abysmal in the Southern League, with a line of .251/.316/.431. I actually have high hopes, because those numbers are up across the board in the last two weeks, so like Rickie Weeks, Barfield may be prime for a big second half.

    68. Lou Palmisano- Milwaukee Brewers- C

    Sweet Lou has not slowed down since being drafted by the Brewers last season. After taking home a short-season MVP trophy last year, Palmisano is making a strong bid to get his name on the Midwest League ballot with a .301/.383/.398 line. The sub-.100 ISO is always concerning, but as I said with Dioner Navarro, power isn’t THAT important for a catcher anyway.

    69. Chad Billingsley- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    Logan White likes to ruffle feathers with first round picks, and that’s what the team did by choosing Chad Billingsley in the first round last year. Generally considered a second rounder, the Los Angeles scouting team fell in love with Billingsley, and apparently for good reason. He’s been ridicuilous in the Florida State League this year, allowing 61 hits in 85 innings, while striking out 103. The 48 walks are a little high, but consider Chad on the Greg Miller path…hopefully that won’t lead to injury.

    70. Brandon Moss- Boston Red Sox- OF

    And finally, a prospect from Beantown. I expect to see the Red Sox system start to improve from the bottom up, and it seems like Brandon Moss will be the first to make that happen. After struggling months after being drafted last year, Moss is in full-breakout mode in the Sally League, where he leads the league with a .366 average. Toss in the 41 walks, 35 extra-base hits and 17 steals, and you got one complete player. MVP! MVP! MVP!

    71. Brian Anderson- Chicago White Sox- OF

    Co-Prospect Ryan Sweeney got all the Chicago buzz this Spring Training, prompting rumors that the 19-year-old might land in AA, blah, blah, blah. But while Sweeney has been overmatched this year, it has been FIRST-round pick, Brian Anderson, that has emerged as the club’s top prospect. Anderson got promoted to AA following a .319/.394/.531 line as a Winston-Salem Warthog, hitting 22 doubles and stealing 10 bases. Anderson will be ready in 2006, when the White Sox are ready to start picking up the scraps that some call Joe Borchard.

    72. Abe Alvarez- Boston Red Sox- SP

    Every ranking I ever make, I gotta have a pick based on my instincts. This winter, I put Jeff Francis in my top 50 and Bobby Brownlie in my top 90, just because I thought they were ready for big years. In my mind, Abe Alvarez may never be a great #1 starter, but he’ll be a great innings-eater in the background. Alvarez has been unspectacular so far this year, but his H/9 is less than 9.00 and he’s got a K/BB of more than 3.00. Maybe I’ll be wrong here, but I really think the Red Sox should consider replacing Bronson Arroyo with Abe Alvarez in 2005.

    73. Val Majewski- Baltimore Orioles- OF

    He’s not going to end up in center, watching seven innings of the Futures Game could have told us that. But Majewski, as John Sickels predicted, has broken out this year, becoming the top Oriole position prospect. Majewski is hitting for average (.300), and power (12 HR), all while stealing some bases (10). He’s shooting up the system, and could be ready by mid-2005.

    74. Denny Bautista- Kansas City Royals- SP

    I was taken aback by Bautista at the 2003 Futures Game, where I saw him as the most intimidating pitcher out there. He was last year’s version of Jose Capellan, and I won’t forget that anytime soon. Trading Bautista for Jason Grimsley is grounds for firing, because I think Bautista will turn out to be a good one, whether in the bullpen or the rotation. He’s been fantastic since joining the Royals, what with a 1.61 ERA in four starts, allowing just 18 hits in 28 innings.

    75. James Loney- Los Angeles Dodgers- 1B

    For his sake, I will let James Loney hang on by the thinnest of margins. He could turn into a great player, or he could be a complete bust, of which he’ll define further with his second half play.

    76. Nick Swisher- Oakland Athletics- OF

    Spoken by Michael Lewis, via an interview given by the guys at Athletics Nation:


    The stats tell you everything you need to know about him. If you look at his walks, it’s insane. He’s 23 YEARS OLD in a league filled with 30-year-old players who’ve spent time in the big leagues. And he’s got like 78 or 80 walks and the next closest guy has 60? How does that happen? It’s freakish. He’s got 16 bombs, who cares that he is hitting .260? Last time I checked, he was like sixth in the league in on-base percentage and that’s at 23 years old. When you go see him and you look at the numbers, what you see when you watch him just confirms the numbers in that he has a really amazing tendency/ability to control his encounters in the batter’s box. He does have a remarkable control over the encounter. He really does have a very, very good eye and just great discipline. He doesn’t mind taking his walks.

    77. Scott Baker- Minnesota Twins- SP

    The reason I love Baseball America? It’s the source where I find guys like Scott Baker, who recently struck out 12 batters in a game, and has given up a ridiculously low 44 hits in 70.1 innings in AA. His peripherals are the type that get turned into a reliever, especially the low average against that Kevin Goldstein recently cited. But, even if Baker ends up being Jesse Crain’s set-up man, the Twins succeeded.

    78. Tony Giarratano- Detroit Tigers- SS

    Despite an inauspicious debut with the West Michigan Whitecaps, Detroit had enough confidence in their young shortstop to promote him to the Florida State League. This is arguably been the promotion of the year, seeing that Tony has produced a 373/424/470 line there. I do have my concerns, because a .051 Isolated Patience and .097 Isolated Power are both not great numbers. But, a switch-hitting shortstop that runs well (24 SB thus far) and hits for contact has to land in any top 100.

    79. Koyie Hill- Los Angeles Dodgers- C

    Almost every prospect on the Dodgers has a lot of potential, and a lot of concern. The Greg Miller injury shed some light on that fact, which was good for Hill’s ranking in the organization: he’s the most for sure prospect they currently have. His .289/.345/.463 line is nothing special, but he’s succeeded in AAA, a spot where a lot of catching prospects falter. Consistency deserves a prize every once in a while too.

    80. Anthony Lerew- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Yes, you have read right, I have eight Braves in my top 80. The system is undoubtedly tops in the game right now, which should give recognition to the ‘scout only the South’ philosophy the team seems to employ. Lerew is one of my favorite prospects, a player I see putting in my top 50 come next March, and watching him fly to the top. At Myrtle Beach (high-A), Lerew has a 2.52 ERA, 7.56 H/9, 8.13 K/9, and 3.13 K/BB. But, one of my favorite statistics, is the 0.24 HR/9 stat. If you believe Dayn Perry’s work last year that HR/9 is a top forecasting stat, you have to buy into Lerew.

    81. Dan Johnson- Oakland Athletics- 1B

    Another guy you don’t hear a lot about, but all he does is hit. In AAA now, Johnson is far more worthy of a Major League spot than Blanton or Swisher. We talk about the injustice of Justin Morneau not having a job over Doug Mientkiewicz, but what about Johnson and Scott Hatteberg? Johnson is hitting .309/.411/.538 in the Pacific Coast League, all with only 48 strikeouts. If this guy doesn’t have a full-time job next year, than I will personally start a Free Dan Johnson! watch.

    82. Mike Megrew- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    There is undoubtedly projectablity, considering Megrew is a 6-6 southpaw weighing well over 200 pounds. And, one could argue there is polish, considering the 2.97 K/BB rate. While Jonathan Broxton and Chad Billingsley have seemingly received more publicity, keeping an eye on Megrew is a good idea. And the fact that he’s a fifth round choice is another example to file under the “Why do the Dodgers draft so well?” question.

    83. Dave Krynzel- Milwaukee Brewers- OF

    Scott Podsednik has been written about all over the place, but his numbers this year are way off what Doug Melvin was hoping for. Lucky for Milwaukee fans, but there is a better centerfielder waiting in the shadows. Krynzel has been hurt much of the season, but since returning, is now red-hot. The ISO is over .200, but the power has hardly been consistent through the minor leagues. This year, the steals are gone, with only five in 31 games. But, a 20/20 guy in center is better than what Scott Podsednik will provide, especially given Krynzel’s .383 OBP.

    84. Melky Cabrera- New York Yankees- OF

    The Yankees love to hype their prospects, so teams get excited to trade their veterans for a future ‘blue-chipper’. This has seldom come back to hurt the Yankees, so much so that I’m shocked Cabrera hasn’t been hyped. Is this intentional? It’s possible that in Cabrera, the Yankees see a potential replacement for Bernie Williams. I say this because Cabrera is hitting .309 in the Florida State League, after hitting .333 in the Midwest League. He’s a switch-hitter, takes a few walks, and just rakes doubles. Believe me, they won’t stay doubles forever...look at Bernie’s minor league stats. Cabrera won’t be 84 next time you see him, I can almost promise you that.

    85. Ruben Gotay- Kansas City Royals- 2B

    If you make it into the Futures Game, even by route of a weak position, you are a prospect that deserves to be watched. With Gotay and Mark Teahen behind him, the Royals believe that Ken Harvey, Gotay, Berrora and Teahen is their infield of the future. The switch-hitting second basemen might make a splash next year, but still should be in the running for AL Rookie of the Year 2006. With his patience and adequate power, I wouldn’t put it past him quite yet.

    86. Mark Teahen- Kansas City Royals- 3B

    After reading how affixed Allard Baird became on Teahen, I started to believe there really was something to the ex-Moneyball draft selection. He may never develop Giambi-esque power, but the Royals might even take a few years of cheap Joe Randa production. Teahen will never have the SLG he had in 53 AA games again, but he’s a much better player than his .262/.344/.414 AAA line suggests.

    87. Jonathan Broxton- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    Another big Dodger, with another big fastball. Broxton, listed at 240 pounds, is pitching well in the Florida State League after turning 20 just a month ago. His low HR/9 (below 1.00), and high K/9 (above 10.00), both suggest a future in the bullpen. Broxton’s ERA is much too high given his performance, something to pay attention to in the final 45 or so games.

    88. Brian Dopirak- Chicago Cubs- 1B

    I still don’t understand how a scout can look at a high school player, and say with certainty that he will hit for power. But whoever said it about Dopirak, and for whatever reasons, was definitely right. You’ve heard about the power numbers of Calvin Pickering and Ryan Howard, but Dopirak’s .606 SLG is something to pay attention to. The Cubs also have to be impressed by the .310 batting average, probably higher than what theat scout had guessed. Dopirak still doesn’t walk enough, strikes out too much, and plays bad defense. But, power is power.

    89. J.D. Durbin- Minnesota Twins- SP

    Again, injuries have stalled Durbin’s development, but he remains on the Twins’ blueprint more than any other Twins hurler, including Jesse Crain. Durbin has very solid numbers across the board in the Eastern League, and looks ready to become a Rochester Red Wing. The Twins need starting pitching like the Texas Rangers do, so there is nothing to indicate that Durbin won’t get his chance in the Twin Cities. And sometimes, opportunity is half the battle.

    90. Brandon Wood- Anaheim Angels- SS

    I guess I’ll never forget it, reading on Baseball America that the Angels’ 2003 first round pick was a high school shortstop named “Dick Wood.” The kid would later ask to be called Brandon, which is like asking Homer Bush to change his name to Carl. But, this didn’t take him off the radar screen, and he’s quickly become the Angels’ second-best middle infield prospect, ranking narrowly behind Erick Aybar. Tremendously bad defense and too many strikeouts hurt his argument to be the top dog. But, if that power remains in higher levels, Wood might be the shortstop position’s top dog...in all the minors.

    91. Jairo Garcia- Oakland Athletics- RP

    Jaw-dropping numbers in low-A are just that: jaw-dropping numbers in low-A. As a challenge, the A’s promoted Garcia to AA, to see if he really was that good. He’s not 0.30 ERA good, but even his Texas League numbers are pretty good. I wasn’t too impressed with him in the Futures Game, and the walks total has been spiking of late, but there is still a lot to like. For example, Garcia is yet to give up a home run this year in more than forty innings of work. He also has 75 strikeouts and only 26 hits allowed this season, so it would be a crime to not call him a prospect.

    92. Joey Votto- Cincinnati Reds- 1B

    It was almost a toss-up between Votto and Dopirak, a pair of 20-year-old first basemen in low levels. But, Votto is definitely behind the Cubs’ prospect, since he doesn’t have a .500 slugging, much less .600. But give Votto some credit, his OBP is .416 this year, making me think he might be the next Dan Johnson...but with a lot more strikeouts. The average seems to be staying consistent, and a .300 average with 80 annual walks is more than deserving of an everyday job.

    93. Fernando Nieve- Houston Astros- SP

    I’ve had my eye on Nieve for awhile, calling him the Astros’ breakout prospect before the season. While he’s still under the radar, Nieve has posted some fantastic numbers in high-A this year. A H/9 under nine, a K/BB over 3.00, and only five home runs allowed in over 100 innings is great. He’s easily the best Astros’ pitching prospect at the moment, beating out Taylor Buchholz by a mile. Keep your eye on this guy, he just can’t keep on this pace with no notice, it’s just not fair.

    94. Andy Sisco- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Plain and simple, it’s nice time to jump ship on Sisco quite yet. In fact, there are very few times when it is alright to jump ship on a 6-9 southpaw, as Mark Hendrickson has proven so far this season. Sisco’s ERA has never been consistent with his numbers, and that remains true this year, though he’s recently lowered the number to 4.13. The walks have to come down, but you gotta love everything else on this kid. If the Cubs have to choose any pitching prospect to hang onto, it might just be this guy, as there is still so much that Sisco can do.

    95. Shin-Soo Choo- Seattle Mariners- OF

    Sometimes, even bad Futures Game performances get you some notice. That’s what happened for Choo, who I had all but forgotten about before his disastrous performance in Houston. The same can’t be said of his season, as his current Texas League line reads .303/.371/.443. Choo can run like Hell, and his 25 stolen bases in 30 attempts tell that his baserunning talents are very strong. An outfield of Jeremy Reed, Choo and Ichiro seem to be in the cards, and while not powerful, they’ll be good at defense and on the bases. How far that gets them remains to be seen, though I don’t think it’s enough to win a division with.

    96. Chris Roberson- Philadelphia Phillies- OF

    Before this season, Roberson had a career .247 batting average, with an Isolated Power of .080. Those hideous numbers have improved this season, as Roberson is hitting .307/.371/.473 in the Florida State League. His baserunning talents that kept him on the prospect radar last year have vanished, and Roberson is still very raw in the field. But if he can cut down the strikeouts, Roberson still has a chance to be a success story...though I wouldn’t bet on it.

    97. Adam Miller- Cleveland Indians- SP

    I don’t know why I’m so biased against Sally League pitchers, but I just can’t buy into their numbers at all. Miller even more so, because his ERA would not be 3.36 if not for a great April. But, mixing good stuff with a K/BB nearing 4.00 is a good sign, though Miller’s timetable seems extremely slow. Given these numbers, why not give Miller the promotion?

    98. Andy LaRoche- Los Angeles Dodgers- 3B

    Despite his brother’s rookie struggles, I won’t let that effect my opinion of Dave LaRoche’s son Andy. I’m also ignoring LaRoche’s first 94 FSL at-bats, which were not up to par with his .283/.375/.525 low-A line. It seems to me that Andy has good patience, good power and good defense, all of which make up a good prospect. It was a toss-up between LaRoche and Hank Blalock’s little brother, who had fairly similar Sally League numbers.

    99. Willy Taveras- Houston Astros- OF

    After being acquired by the Astros in the Rule V draft, Taveras has blossomed over extra tutelage, and was hitting .340 before getting injured. Taveras walks and runs, and that’s it. He strikes out a little too much for a leadoff hitter, and has less power than the tag ‘Juan Pierre lite’ would imply...if that’s possible.

    100. Alberto Callaspo- Anaheim Angels- 2B

    Anaheim has been good on most of their prospect’s timetables, all of those except Callaspo. Alberto was Erick Aybar’s double-play teammate last year, but was promoted to the Texas League, while Aybar moved up one level to the California League. Aybar skyrocketed into the top 75, while Callaspo has dropped to hanging on by his fingernails. He’s flirting with getting kicked out for good, though I have a feeling Callaspo might turn things up a bit in the second half.

    WTNYJuly 22, 2004
    WTNY 'Midseason' 100
    By Bryan Smith

    With this final installment, my prospect ranking is done...for a few months. Despite mixed reviews, it’s been a good time, and one of the most educational experiences of my writing career. I’m never going to attempt to put WTNY alongside Baseball America, but instead putting another view on a largely uncovered area of the baseball world.

    Let me congratulate David Wright and Grady Sizemore on their promotions to the Bigs. Wright was 0-4 in his opener, while Sizmore was just 0-1. Both these guys have extremely bright futures, and their presence in the Majors is long overdue. Hopefully this will give the Mets reason to trade Ty Wigginton to the Pirates for Kris Benson, but we shall see.

    Next Monday, I hope to recap by answering all your questions with a mailbag type of column. So please, drop any question you've had below, and I'll try to get to all of them Monday. And, here we go:

    76. Nick Swisher- Oakland Athletics- OF

    Spoken by Michael Lewis, via an interview given by the guys at Athletics Nation:


    The stats tell you everything you need to know about him. If you look at his walks, it’s insane. He’s 23 YEARS OLD in a league filled with 30-year-old players who’ve spent time in the big leagues. And he’s got like 78 or 80 walks and the next closest guy has 60? How does that happen? It’s freakish. He’s got 16 bombs, who cares that he is hitting .260? Last time I checked, he was like sixth in the league in on-base percentage and that’s at 23 years old. When you go see him and you look at the numbers, what you see when you watch him just confirms the numbers in that he has a really amazing tendency/ability to control his encounters in the batter’s box. He does have a remarkable control over the encounter. He really does have a very, very good eye and just great discipline. He doesn’t mind taking his walks.

    77. Scott Baker- Minnesota Twins- SP

    The reason I love Baseball America? It’s the source where I find guys like Scott Baker, who recently struck out 12 batters in a game, and has given up a ridiculously low 44 hits in 70.1 innings in AA. His peripherals are the type that get turned into a reliever, especially the low average against that Kevin Goldstein recently cited. But, even if Baker ends up being Jesse Crain’s set-up man, the Twins succeeded.

    78. Tony Giarratano- Detroit Tigers- SS

    Despite an inauspicious debut with the West Michigan Whitecaps, Detroit had enough confidence in their young shortstop to promote him to the Florida State League. This is arguably been the promotion of the year, seeing that Tony has produced a 373/424/470 line there. I do have my concerns, because a .051 Isolated Patience and .097 Isolated Power are both not great numbers. But, a switch-hitting shortstop that runs well (24 SB thus far) and hits for contact has to land in any top 100.

    79. Koyie Hill- Los Angeles Dodgers- C

    Almost every prospect on the Dodgers has a lot of potential, and a lot of concern. The Greg Miller injury shed some light on that fact, which was good for Hill’s ranking in the organization: he’s the most for sure prospect they currently have. His .289/.345/.463 line is nothing special, but he’s succeeded in AAA, a spot where a lot of catching prospects falter. Consistency deserves a prize every once in a while too.

    80. Anthony Lerew- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Yes, you have read right, I have eight Braves in my top 80. The system is undoubtedly tops in the game right now, which should give recognition to the ‘scout only the South’ philosophy the team seems to employ. Lerew is one of my favorite prospects, a player I see putting in my top 50 come next March, and watching him fly to the top. At Myrtle Beach (high-A), Lerew has a 2.52 ERA, 7.56 H/9, 8.13 K/9, and 3.13 K/BB. But, one of my favorite statistics, is the 0.24 HR/9 stat. If you believe Dayn Perry’s work last year that HR/9 is a top forecasting stat, you have to buy into Lerew.

    81. Dan Johnson- Oakland Athletics- 1B

    Another guy you don’t hear a lot about, but all he does is hit. In AAA now, Johnson is far more worthy of a Major League spot than Blanton or Swisher. We talk about the injustice of Justin Morneau not having a job over Doug Mientkiewicz, but what about Johnson and Scott Hatteberg? Johnson is hitting .309/.411/.538 in the Pacific Coast League, all with only 48 strikeouts. If this guy doesn’t have a full-time job next year, than I will personally start a Free Dan Johnson! watch.

    82. Mike Megrew- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    There is undoubtedly projectablity, considering Megrew is a 6-6 southpaw weighing well over 200 pounds. And, one could argue there is polish, considering the 2.97 K/BB rate. While Jonathan Broxton and Chad Billingsley have seemingly received more publicity, keeping an eye on Megrew is a good idea. And the fact that he’s a fifth round choice is another example to file under the “Why do the Dodgers draft so well?” question.

    83. Dave Krynzel- Milwaukee Brewers- OF

    Scott Podsednik has been written about all over the place, but his numbers this year are way off what Doug Melvin was hoping for. Lucky for Milwaukee fans, but there is a better centerfielder waiting in the shadows. Krynzel has been hurt much of the season, but since returning, is now red-hot. The ISO is over .200, but the power has hardly been consistent through the minor leagues. This year, the steals are gone, with only five in 31 games. But, a 20/20 guy in center is better than what Scott Podsednik will provide, especially given Krynzel’s .383 OBP.

    84. Melky Cabrera- New York Yankees- OF

    The Yankees love to hype their prospects, so teams get excited to trade their veterans for a future ‘blue-chipper’. This has seldom come back to hurt the Yankees, so much so that I’m shocked Cabrera hasn’t been hyped. Is this intentional? It’s possible that in Cabrera, the Yankees see a potential replacement for Bernie Williams. I say this because Cabrera is hitting .309 in the Florida State League, after hitting .333 in the Midwest League. He’s a switch-hitter, takes a few walks, and just rakes doubles. Believe me, they won’t stay doubles forever...look at Bernie’s minor league stats. Cabrera won’t be 84 next time you see him, I can almost promise you that.

    85. Ruben Gotay- Kansas City Royals- 2B

    If you make it into the Futures Game, even by route of a weak position, you are a prospect that deserves to be watched. With Gotay and Mark Teahen behind him, the Royals believe that Ken Harvey, Gotay, Berrora and Teahen is their infield of the future. The switch-hitting second basemen might make a splash next year, but still should be in the running for AL Rookie of the Year 2006. With his patience and adequate power, I wouldn’t put it past him quite yet.

    86. Mark Teahen- Kansas City Royals- 3B

    After reading how affixed Allard Baird became on Teahen, I started to believe there really was something to the ex-Moneyball draft selection. He may never develop Giambi-esque power, but the Royals might even take a few years of cheap Joe Randa production. Teahen will never have the SLG he had in 53 AA games again, but he’s a much better player than his .262/.344/.414 AAA line suggests.

    87. Jonathan Broxton- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    Another big Dodger, with another big fastball. Broxton, listed at 240 pounds, is pitching well in the Florida State League after turning 20 just a month ago. His low HR/9 (below 1.00), and high K/9 (above 10.00), both suggest a future in the bullpen. Broxton’s ERA is much too high given his performance, something to pay attention to in the final 45 or so games.

    88. Brian Dopirak- Chicago Cubs- 1B

    I still don’t understand how a scout can look at a high school player, and say with certainty that he will hit for power. But whoever said it about Dopirak, and for whatever reasons, was definitely right. You’ve heard about the power numbers of Calvin Pickering and Ryan Howard, but Dopirak’s .606 SLG is something to pay attention to. The Cubs also have to be impressed by the .310 batting average, probably higher than what theat scout had guessed. Dopirak still doesn’t walk enough, strikes out too much, and plays bad defense. But, power is power.

    89. J.D. Durbin- Minnesota Twins- SP

    Again, injuries have stalled Durbin’s development, but he remains on the Twins’ blueprint more than any other Twins hurler, including Jesse Crain. Durbin has very solid numbers across the board in the Eastern League, and looks ready to become a Rochester Red Wing. The Twins need starting pitching like the Texas Rangers do, so there is nothing to indicate that Durbin won’t get his chance in the Twin Cities. And sometimes, opportunity is half the battle.

    90. Brandon Wood- Anaheim Angels- SS

    I guess I’ll never forget it, reading on Baseball America that the Angels’ 2003 first round pick was a high school shortstop named “Dick Wood.” The kid would later ask to be called Brandon, which is like asking Homer Bush to change his name to Carl. But, this didn’t take him off the radar screen, and he’s quickly become the Angels’ second-best middle infield prospect, ranking narrowly behind Erick Aybar. Tremendously bad defense and too many strikeouts hurt his argument to be the top dog. But, if that power remains in higher levels, Wood might be the shortstop position’s top dog...in all the minors.

    91. Jairo Garcia- Oakland Athletics- RP

    Jaw-dropping numbers in low-A are just that: jaw-dropping numbers in low-A. As a challenge, the A’s promoted Garcia to AA, to see if he really was that good. He’s not 0.30 ERA good, but even his Texas League numbers are pretty good. I wasn’t too impressed with him in the Futures Game, and the walks total has been spiking of late, but there is still a lot to like. For example, Garcia is yet to give up a home run this year in more than forty innings of work. He also has 75 strikeouts and only 26 hits allowed this season, so it would be a crime to not call him a prospect.

    92. Joey Votto- Cincinnati Reds- 1B

    It was almost a toss-up between Votto and Dopirak, a pair of 20-year-old first basemen in low levels. But, Votto is definitely behind the Cubs’ prospect, since he doesn’t have a .500 slugging, much less .600. But give Votto some credit, his OBP is .416 this year, making me think he might be the next Dan Johnson...but with a lot more strikeouts. The average seems to be staying consistent, and a .300 average with 80 annual walks is more than deserving of an everyday job.

    93. Fernando Nieve- Houston Astros- SP

    I’ve had my eye on Nieve for awhile, calling him the Astros’ breakout prospect before the season. While he’s still under the radar, Nieve has posted some fantastic numbers in high-A this year. A H/9 under nine, a K/BB over 3.00, and only five home runs allowed in over 100 innings is great. He’s easily the best Astros’ pitching prospect at the moment, beating out Taylor Buchholz by a mile. Keep your eye on this guy, he just can’t keep on this pace with no notice, it’s just not fair.

    94. Andy Sisco- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Plain and simple, it’s nice time to jump ship on Sisco quite yet. In fact, there are very few times when it is alright to jump ship on a 6-9 southpaw, as Mark Hendrickson has proven so far this season. Sisco’s ERA has never been consistent with his numbers, and that remains true this year, though he’s recently lowered the number to 4.13. The walks have to come down, but you gotta love everything else on this kid. If the Cubs have to choose any pitching prospect to hang onto, it might just be this guy, as there is still so much that Sisco can do.

    95. Shin-Soo Choo- Seattle Mariners- OF

    Sometimes, even bad Futures Game performances get you some notice. That’s what happened for Choo, who I had all but forgotten about before his disastrous performance in Houston. The same can’t be said of his season, as his current Texas League line reads .303/.371/.443. Choo can run like Hell, and his 25 stolen bases in 30 attempts tell that his baserunning talents are very strong. An outfield of Jeremy Reed, Choo and Ichiro seem to be in the cards, and while not powerful, they’ll be good at defense and on the bases. How far that gets them remains to be seen, though I don’t think it’s enough to win a division with.

    96. Chris Roberson- Philadelphia Phillies- OF

    Before this season, Roberson had a career .247 batting average, with an Isolated Power of .080. Those hideous numbers have improved this season, as Roberson is hitting .307/.371/.473 in the Florida State League. His baserunning talents that kept him on the prospect radar last year have vanished, and Roberson is still very raw in the field. But if he can cut down the strikeouts, Roberson still has a chance to be a success story...though I wouldn’t bet on it.

    97. Adam Miller- Cleveland Indians- SP

    I don’t know why I’m so biased against Sally League pitchers, but I just can’t buy into their numbers at all. Miller even more so, because his ERA would not be 3.36 if not for a great April. But, mixing good stuff with a K/BB nearing 4.00 is a good sign, though Miller’s timetable seems extremely slow. Given these numbers, why not give Miller the promotion?

    98. Andy LaRoche- Los Angeles Dodgers- 3B

    Despite his brother’s rookie struggles, I won’t let that effect my opinion of Dave LaRoche’s son Andy. I’m also ignoring LaRoche’s first 94 FSL at-bats, which were not up to par with his .283/.375/.525 low-A line. It seems to me that Andy has good patience, good power and good defense, all of which make up a good prospect. It was a toss-up between LaRoche and Hank Blalock’s little brother, who had fairly similar Sally League numbers.

    99. Willy Taveras- Houston Astros- OF

    After being acquired by the Astros in the Rule V draft, Taveras has blossomed over extra tutelage, and was hitting .340 before getting injured. Taveras walks and runs, and that’s it. He strikes out a little too much for a leadoff hitter, and has less power than the tag ‘Juan Pierre lite’ would imply...if that’s possible.

    100. Alberto Callaspo- Anaheim Angels- 2B

    Anaheim has been good on most of their prospect’s timetables, all of those except Callaspo. Alberto was Erick Aybar’s double-play teammate last year, but was promoted to the Texas League, while Aybar moved up one level to the California League. Aybar skyrocketed into the top 75, while Callaspo has dropped to hanging on by his fingernails. He’s flirting with getting kicked out for good, though I have a feeling Callaspo might turn things up a bit in the second half.

    Remember, drop any questions in the comments, and I will answer all of them on Monday.

    WTNYJuly 19, 2004
    Changes
    By Bryan Smith

    To answer some questions I've had, no, I'm not done. On Thursday, I will present prospects 76-100, rounding out my 'midseason' list. The more and more we get into July, the further we are from the halfway point, but I think it is still fair to keep ranking prospects. After that, I will rank all the Major League organizations, as one reader requested.

    For now, I wanted to clean up the mess around here, take a second to breath. Ranking prospects is a difficult art, one that generates lots of criticism. Most of the time I have an answer for critics, a reason why my list reads how it does. But, this list is not perfect. I can explain why Gabe Gross or Jose Lopez didn't make my list, but I have a harder time explaining Edwin Encarnacion.

    I can't explain how Edwin Encarnacion is behind James Loney (#75), or a worse 3B prospect than Eric Duncan (#58). An early season injury eliminated Encarnacion from my memory, but watching him in the Futures Game made me realize he should be on the list. After hitting .282/.339/.458 in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old, he spent 2003 hitting .321/.387/.484 in high-A. Encarnacion, once traded for Rob Bell, is back to his old self, with a line of .305/.379/.465 in AA thus far.

    These are fairly consistent lines, considering the ISOs (.176, .163, .160) and his Isolated Patience numbers (.059, .066, .074). At the age of twenty-one, Encarnacion is still young for the Southern League. His defense is said to be good at third, and while he won't be stealing 25 bases like he did in 2002, he runs fairly well. It's safe to say that Encarnacion will solve the Reds' hot corner problem before too long, and even more so that he belongs in the top 75.

    Also, after further consideration, I have more prospect tweaking that has been decided on. First of all, Delmon Young has been vastly underrated on my list. I now feel that Young is a better outfield prospect than Jeremy Hermida, Felix Pie, Jeff Salazar, Jeremy Reed and Conor Jackson, all of whom were once ranked ahead of him. And in good time, I believe that Young will pass Jeff Francouer, Franklin Gutierrez and Grady Sizemore to be first on the list.

    Injuries to Cole Hamels, and a breakout by Scott Kazmir has led to the decision to flop the two on my list. For the season, Kazmir has only allowed three home runs in 61 innings, and has pitched well in two AA starts. It sounds that Hamels' arm injury was more serious than Kazmir's, which also has a large bearing on the decision. I'm still skeptical that Kazmir will end up in the bullpen, and his second half will be closely watched.

    A little farther down the list, decisions have been made on Chuck James, Lastings Milledge and Carlos Quentin. While James' numbers are impressive, dominating the Sally League at 22 is almost expected. He's just been activated from a questionable suspension, and we'll see how the southpaw fares at high-A Myrtle Beach. Milledge was a top 10 pick in last year's draft, and proved it with a .225 ISO in low-A. While the five walks in 196 at-bats were concerning, power mixed with 16 steals was enough for the Mets to promote Milledge.

    After thinking Conor Jackson was a much better prospect than both Quentin and Jamie D'Antona, Quentin's play has reversed that opinion. Quentin is closing fast, and has hit .393/.464/.583 with the El Paso Diablos of the Texas League. An outfield of Jackson, Drew or Santos, and Quentin is not too far away. Give Joe Garigiola some credit, he's gone all college players of late, and it's quickly transforming his system into one of the game's best.

    With those two moving up, Ryan Howard will also be pushed back a little on the list. Fabian has written in previous comments about how far off I am, and Howard's 112 strikeouts in 89 games prove that. Not only might he break the minor league home run record, but also the strikeout record.

    So, with all those changes, it's time to shut up and unvail my final 75, for comments on all these players, see part one and two:


    1. Upton 39. Brownlie
    2. Wright 40. Crain
    3. Hernandez 41. Encarnacion
    4. McPherson 42. J. Guzman
    5. Marte 43. Stevens
    6. Sizemore 44. Weeks
    7. Francis 45. Quiroz
    8. Fielder 46. Burke
    9. Mathis 47. Davies
    10. Kazmir 48. Navarro
    11. Gutierrez 49. Van Benschoten
    12. Cain 50. Milledge
    13. Meyer 51. Quentin
    14. Francouer 52. J. Anderson
    15. Everts 53. Hudgins
    16. Aubrey 54. Hinckley
    17. Floyd 55. Seddon
    18. Young 56. Cano
    19. Valdez 57. Maine
    20. Hermida 58. Duncan
    21. Hamels 59. James
    22. Salazar 60. Loewen
    23. Capellan 61. Banks
    24. Pie 62. Duke
    25. Jackson 63. Aybar
    26. Reed 64. Santos
    27. Santana 65. Thompson
    28. Baker 66. Howard
    29. Stauffer 67. Barfield
    30. Kinsler 68. Palmisano
    31. Stewart 69. Billingsley
    32. Blanton 70. Moss
    33. A. Guzman 71. B. Anderson
    34. Huber 72. Alvarez
    35. Kubel 73. Majewski
    36. Barton 74. Bautista
    37. Danks 75. Loney
    38. Petit

    Check back on Thursday for installment #3.

    WTNYJuly 15, 2004
    WTNY Midseason 75
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, let me thank everyone for the comments in the last two posts, it’s been great to get a discussion going. I love knowing there is a place for talk on minor league baseball, and I hope this can become a home for that. While I had planned on following up the top forty with comments on the honorable mention, your interest sparked me to rank further, going down to 75 this week. Response to this will decide whether or not I make a third installment.

    While I love the constructive criticism and differing opinions (rather than the plain, old, “this list sucks”), I should have laid groundwork for my decisions before unleashing the top forty. This is a midseason ranking list, and like Aaron Gleeman stressed in his ML All-Star picks, you can’t overvalue half a season. I took previous performance very seriously, trying to mix 2004 and the past evenly. This explains why Joel Guzman is low, and Josh Barfield isn’t gone. I expect a ton of differences this winter, when 2004 gets weighed more heavily.

    And now, let’s get to prospects 41-75:

    41. Ian Stewart- Colorado Rockies- 3B

    The tenth pick in last year’s frat, Stewart has already displayed the most power from the 2003 draft. That kind of raw power, mixed with the thin air of Colorado, just might produce some freakish results. Stewart has more upside than Jeff Salazar and Jeff Baker, with a lot less polish. Ian will surely force Baker to pick up another glove, perhaps learning the art of left field. Stewart’s Sally League numbers are excellent, but just that, low-A numbers. I always try to take it with a grain of salt, but if he tops thirty home runs, that may not be an option.

    42. Joel Guzman- Los Angeles Dodgers- SS

    Looking at Joel Guzman’s past numbers, you might be shocked at the year he’s having. But ask the Dodgers, who signed him for millions at age 16, and they’ll say it was only a matter of time. It’s hard to say where Guzman fits in as a prospect, he’s always looked overmatched until May of this year. His numbers seem similar to Franklin Gutierrez of 2003, meaning his .530 SLG will evaporate at higher levels. This hardly eliminates him from prospect status, as good contact, fielding and baserunning shortstops are hard to find. Few second halves will have more of a bearing on winter rankings than Guzman’s.

    43. Jake Stevens- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Brad Thompson, who will appear later on this list, was hyped more than many minor leaguers ever see with his 50+ IP scoreless streak earlier this season. Jake Stevens didn’t get the same attention, but between May 21 and July 10, Stevens didn’t give up a run either. In fact, the game that ended in was a five inning start in which the southpaw gave up one run, while striking out eight batters. His numbers have been superior to teammate Chuck James, and given Stevens’ age, his prospect status is rising.

    44. Rickie Weeks- Milwaukee Brewers- 2B

    Life can’t be easy for Rickie Weeks. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not making excuses for what has thus far been a sorry season, but his life has been non-stop ever since being chosen second in last year’s draft. A sensational player at Southern University, Weeks has struggled a bit in the Southern League, with a season line of .253/.369/.379. The Isolated Power is a little bad, but Weeks is a middle infielder, and he does have 25 extra-base hits. Things are going to click in the second half for Rickie Weeks, and I bet he’s in my top 30 at season’s end.

    45. Guillermo Quiroz- Toronto Blue Jays- C

    Since falling victim to a collasped lung at the end of last season, Quiroz hasn’t had the best health, falling victim to yet another injury this year. It doesn’t effect his long-term status, and he should have a fine second half. Kevin Cash, who had been projected to give Quiroz competition for PT, has been terrible for the Jays, basically handing the job to Guillermo. With Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross, and Quiroz projected to be in their lineup next year, and possibly Russ Adams and Aaron Hill as well, the Jays rebuilding can begin right now.

    46. Chris Burke- Houston Astros- 2B

    Is there a dreamier leadoff prospect out there than Chris Burke right now? The Astros will almost surely let Jeff Kent leave in 2005, letting their top prospect take the job up the middle. They are right in believing he’s ready for the job, as evidenced by his .325/.403/.507 line in the PCL this year. I don’t think the power surge will last in the Majors, but he might get to about 40 doubles some season, which ain’t bad either. Throw in the fact that he stole 22 bases before being called up, and you’ve got the 2005 Astros leadoff man.

    47. Kyle Davies- Atlanta Braves- SP

    I asked my friend Brad Dowdy about his thoughts on the three Braves’ pitchers in this list, and this is what he said of Davies:


    I could argue Davies ahead of Stevens after his two solid outings since being promoted to Double-A as a 20 year old. Everyone in the system has always known he has the stuff, it was just a matter of getting innings under his belt and the old cliché of "learning how to pitch". Well, this is the season where he put it all together. He didn't even blink when he moved up a level, and I don't see any reason why that won't continue.

    48. Dioner Navarro- New York Yankees- C

    Despite some power struggles this year, it’s hard to make a claim that someone other than Dioner Navarro is the top Yankees prospect. 2004 numbers explain why he’s behind Justin Huber and Daric Barton in terms of catching prospects, though that is very subject to change. In contrast, Navarro is behind Jeff Mathis and Guillermo Quiroz because of potential...particularly power potential. I like Navarro’s discipline, I think more of his contact abilities than a .271 average suggests, and have heard him to be an average defender. Power isn’t essential for a top 50 prospect, but a better ISO than .098 would be big here.

    49. John Van Benschoten- Pittsburgh Pirates- SP

    After obviously passing the Eastern League test, I was a little worried when John Van Benschoten struggled when reaching AAA. But things have picked up lately (excluding his last start), and John has an ERA sitting right around 4.00. Van Benschoten will have every opportunity in the world to make it with the Pirates, and given the right patience, I think he will. Unless VB has a big August, I doubt they’ll call him up, waiting for mid-2005 for his arrival.

    50. Ryan Howard- Philadelphia Phillies- 1B

    Is there a better prospect in minor league baseball that’s as blocked as Ryan Howard? While a perfect world wouldn’t have the “every prospect is trade bait” mentality, I can understand if Ed Wade is willing to trade Howard, despite beind on his way to crushing the AA home run record. The power is unbelieveable, and unmatched by any prospects on this list. But, Howard strikes out a lot, and could reach the 150 plateau this year. He reminds me of a modern day Frank Thomas, not the 90s superversion: volatile average, lots ‘o power and walks, and unlike Frank, tons of K’s.

    51. Josh Anderson- Houston Astros- OF

    While us sabermatricians try to act as scouts by analyzing numbers, it takes a Josh Anderson type to respect the real scouts. In last year’s draft, Anderson lasted until the fourth round, hardly the spot for a top 50 prospect. This is a situation when power isn’t key, when a .101 ISO on a .324 average will more than suffice. Why? At centerfield, Anderson is being groomed for the leadoff spot, where a .402 OBP and nearly fifty steals will pay off. Anderson, currently on the Reed path, should be ready for Houston in 2006, so don’t blame him for wanting Carlos Beltran to change addresses.

    52. Chuck James- Atlanta Braves- SP

    Twenty-two is a bit old for the Sally League, and that was evident in the numbers for Chuck James. Before being moved up to Myrtle Beach, James was 8-2, with a 1.90 ERA, good for third in the league. James walked a bit too many considering his age, something to look for in higher levels. Also concerning is the fact that James has been suspended for much of the last month for unknown reasons. According to No Pepper, the ban was lifted yesterday, and we’ll see if the Braves ever leak out just why this happened.

    53. John Hudgins- Texas Rangers- SP

    This convinced me: "I've never seen a better pitching performance in the minor leagues. Hudgins put every pitch where he wanted it, commanding a fastball that sat around 90 most of the night, mixing in a decent curve, and showing San Antonio hitters as dirty a changeup as those of them who eventually get to the majors might ever see. He dealt. He orchestrated. He was Greg Maddux."

    - Jamey Newberg, Newberg Report (7/2/04)

    54. Mike Hinckley- Montreal Expos- SP

    Think Travis Blackley, without the strikeouts. While Hinckley has decent stuff, it’s hardly comparable to other guys on this list, but he always gets it done. After a 2.61 ERA in 10 Florida State League starts, Hinckley was moved to Harrisburg, where his ERA is a near-identical 2.58. His K/BB is more than 3.00, and his WHIP is 1.04. In my opinion, this is a time where pure stuff is just not going to win, and Hinckley’s pitchability makes him a good prospect.

    55. Chris Seddon- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- SP

    Dan Feinstein, a reader who also owns Montgomery Biscuits season tickets, wrote up this great scouting report on Seddon:


    Seddon pitched against the Greenville Braves here on Thursday night [ed. Note: May 27]. I went to the game. Seddon was much smaller than I expected. He is listed at 6'3" 170, but if I had to guess, I would have pegged him at 6'0" and even lighter than the program had him. He worked from the third base side of the rubber and used a lot of 12 to 6 breaking curve balls to befuddle the Braves, striking out 12 in 6 innings. His fastball was well targeted, but not too quick.

    56. Robinson Cano- New York Yankees- 2B

    In the comments section, reader Fabian tried to convince me to place Cano in front of Chris Burke. It didn’t work, but I thought his argument was definitely good enough to post:


    I don't see how you can have Burke ahead of Cano. Burke is 24 and Cano is 21. Burke has been at AAA all year, and Cano was at AA for the first half before being promoted to AAA a few weeks ago. On the season Burke is hitting .325 with 30 extra base hits and a 33:36 BB:K ratio in 286 at bats. Cano is hitting .306 with 39 extra base hits and a 30:44 strikeout ratio in 337 at bats. Has Burke outperformed Cano? Sure. However, given the HUGE difference in age, I think Cano is easily ahead of Burke. Were it not for Rickie Weeks' track record, I would be tempted to call Cano the No. 1 2B prospect in baseball.

    57. John Maine- Baltimore Orioles- SP

    Sort of like John Van Benschoten, in the respect that after posting insane numbers last year, Maine was more than qualified for the International League. Just to test it, the Orioles sent Maine to AA, where he went 4-0 in five starts, allowing 16 hits in 28 innings. It was obvious he was ready for the IL, but during his stay, Maine hasn’t been the pitcher of old. A 4.52 ERA and BB/9 upwards of 4.00 are some scary statistics, but the Oriole right-hander has been turning it up lately, so we’ll see how long this good pitching lasts.

    58. Eric Duncan- New York Yankees- 3B

    There is a lot to like about Eric Duncan, who has a Ryan Howard-like block up the line, almost assured of landing in a different organization at some point. Duncan was great in the Midwest League this year, and considering he had 37 extra-base hits and 38 walks in 78 low-A games, expectations are going to start raising about the teenager. But take caution, Duncan also struck out upwards of 80 times, and I have a feeling the FSL might be a little much for him.

    59. Lastings Milledge- New York Mets- OF

    By year’s end, Milledge could be sitting alongside Delmon Young as two of the best outfield prospects in the game. Milledge has five-tool capabilities that few can match, as seen in his combination of 27 XBH and 16 SB, in just 47 games. Some might be alarmed at the seven errors (high for an OF), but he’s young, and easily has the ability for centerfield. But, the problem with Milledge is his plate discipline, seeing as though his BB/K is an abysmal 5/42 this season. Corey Patterson, version 2.0?

    60. Adam Loewen- Baltimore Orioles- SP

    I said it when I put him in the top fifty last winter, and I’ll say it again, this pick is based solely on potential. But, if Loewen doesn’t get his act together soon, he’s going to keep falling, right off any prospect list. I’m sure people will hassle me with this pick, but just wait and see on this kid, he might jump out and surprise you. By the looks of things, it seems as though the Orioles’ Major League control problems are falling down to the minors as well.

    61. Josh Banks- Toronto Blue Jays- SP

    Like John Maine, Josh Banks has seen his BB/9 rise at a higher level, and it’s much of the reason Banks has a 5.77 AA ERA. And like Adam Loewen, if Banks doesn’t get his act together, he’s gone. But, it’s hard to ignore that Banks was one of the FSL’s best pitchers before getting sent up, largely due to a 7.50 K/BB. It’s now below 2.00, and without that, Banks is just another pitcher. This is something to watch in the second half, because the Blue Jays system has taken a bit of a hit since this winter.

    62. Zach Duke- Pittsburgh Pirates- SP

    I’ll admit, didn’t really know Zach Duke before starting this list, but I sure do now. A southpaw, Duke is the definition of a midseason All-Star, and like Joel Guzman, someone who could rise with a consistent second half. Duke has a Bob Gibson-like 1.39 ERA this year, a WHIP under 1.00, and is on pace to eclipse the 200 strikeout barrier. Maybe it’s Duke, and not Hinckley, who makes the better Travis Blackley comparison.

    63. Erick Aybar- Anaheim Angels- SS

    A recent power streak, six home runs in six days, has taken Aybar’s HR total to nine, and his XBH total to 31. He’s leading the California League with not only his .355 average, but also his 38 stolen bases. This is good and all, but Aybar has been caught 27 times, a total that has to lead the minor leagues. Aybar struggles like B.J. Upton does at short, but for the time being, he ranks first of the Angels’ middle infield trio of Alberto Callaspo, Brandon Wood and Aybar.

    64. Sergio Santos- Arizona Diamondbacks- SS

    Consider this my due for not giving Santos props last year. You have to respect Santos, a 2002 first-round pick, already with 30 extra-base hits. Shortstops with 25 HR power don’t come around everyday, so Santos has become the prime ‘Zona prospect. He’s also been iffy at shortstop, and with a growing body, there are concerns on whether he can stay there. I think Stephen Drew’s defense and rise through the system will determine if Santos moves elsewhere, because he probably has the bat for left field.

    65. Brad Thompson- St. Louis Cardinals- SP

    I’ve already touched a bit on Brad Thompson, and his remarkable scoreless streak to start the season. He’s come out of nowhere, and may end up taking a every-fifth-day starting spot before former top prospect Dan Haren. After a 1.76 ERA in AA, Thompson has struggled a bit with the Memphis Redbirds, allowing three home runs in 14.2 innings. A sinkerballer, Thompson’s second half will determine whether that streak was a fluke to be forgotten.

    66. Carlos Quentin- Arizona Diamondbacks- OF

    One of the Tres Amigos, Quentin has seperated himself from the third member, Jamie D’Antona, with a disgusting performance since their group promotion. Well, he’s hit .357/.425/.529, which is very consistent with his California League line of .310/.428/.562. Quentin had Tommy John surgery last offseason, and it hasn’t appeared to slow him down one bit. Imagine this lineup card in Arizona coming soon:

    C- Robby Hammock
    1B- Jamie D’Antona
    2B- Scott Hairston
    SS- Sergio Santos
    3B- Chad Tracy
    LF- Conor Jackson
    CF- Stephen Drew
    RF- Carlos Quentin

    Jeez, maybe they’ll be back in the World Series before we thought!

    67. Josh Barfield- San Diego Padres- 2B

    Very susceptible to an irreplaceable drop from my prospect lists in the winter. The 2003 California League MVP, Barfield has been abysmal in the Southern League, with a line of .251/.316/.431. I actually have high hopes, because those numbers are up across the board in the last two weeks, so like Rickie Weeks, Barfield may be prime for a big second half.

    68. Lou Palmisano- Milwaukee Brewers- C

    Sweet Lou has not slowed down since being drafted by the Brewers last season. After taking home a short-season MVP trophy last year, Palmisano is making a strong bid to get his name on the Midwest League ballot with a .301/.383/.398 line. The sub-.100 ISO is always concerning, but as I said with Dioner Navarro, power isn’t THAT important for a catcher anyway.

    69. Chad Billingsley- Los Angeles Dodgers- SP

    Logan White likes to ruffle feathers with first round picks, and that’s what the team did by choosing Chad Billingsley in the first round last year. Generally considered a second rounder, the Los Angeles scouting team fell in love with Billingsley, and apparently for good reason. He’s been ridicuilous in the Florida State League this year, allowing 61 hits in 85 innings, while striking out 103. The 48 walks are a little high, but consider Chad on the Greg Miller path...hopefully that won’t lead to injury.

    70. Brandon Moss- Boston Red Sox- OF

    And finally, a prospect from Beantown. I expect to see the Red Sox system start to improve from the bottom up, and it seems like Brandon Moss will be the first to make that happen. After struggling months after being drafted last year, Moss is in full-breakout mode in the Sally League, where he leads the league with a .366 average. Toss in the 41 walks, 35 extra-base hits and 17 steals, and you got one complete player. MVP! MVP! MVP!

    71. Brian Anderson- Chicago White Sox- OF

    Co-Prospect Ryan Sweeney got all the Chicago buzz this Spring Training, prompting rumors that the 19-year-old might land in AA, blah, blah, blah. But while Sweeney has been overmatched this year, it has been FIRST-round pick, Brian Anderson, that has emerged as the club’s top prospect. Anderson got promoted to AA following a .319/.394/.531 line as a Winston-Salem Warthog, hitting 22 doubles and stealing 10 bases. Anderson will be ready in 2006, when the White Sox are ready to start picking up the scraps that some call Joe Borchard.

    72. Abe Alvarez- Boston Red Sox- SP

    Every ranking I ever make, I gotta have a pick based on my instincts. This winter, I put Jeff Francis in my top 50 and Bobby Brownlie in my top 90, just because I thought they were ready for big years. In my mind, Abe Alvarez may never be a great #1 starter, but he’ll be a great innings-eater in the background. Alvarez has been unspectacular so far this year, but his H/9 is less than 9.00 and he’s got a K/BB of more than 3.00. Maybe I’ll be wrong here, but I really think the Red Sox should consider replacing Bronson Arroyo with Abe Alvarez in 2005.

    73. Val Majewski- Baltimore Orioles- OF

    He’s not going to end up in center, watching seven innings of the Futures Game could have told us that. But Majewski, as John Sickels predicted, has broken out this year, becoming the top Oriole position prospect. Majewski is hitting for average (.300), and power (12 HR), all while stealing some bases (10). He’s shooting up the system, and could be ready by mid-2005.

    74. Denny Bautista- Kansas City Royals- SP

    I was taken aback by Bautista at the 2003 Futures Game, where I saw him as the most intimidating pitcher out there. He was last year’s version of Jose Capellan, and I won’t forget that anytime soon. Trading Bautista for Jason Grimsley is grounds for firing, because I think Bautista will turn out to be a good one, whether in the bullpen or the rotation. He’s been fantastic since joining the Royals, what with a 1.61 ERA in four starts, allowing just 18 hits in 28 innings.

    75. James Loney- Los Angeles Dodgers- 1B

    For his sake, I will let James Loney hang on by the thinnest of margins. He could turn into a great player, or he could be a complete bust, of which he’ll define further with his second half play.

    Five that missed: Melky Cabrera (NYY), Tom Gorzelanny (PIT), Gabe Gross (TOR), Jonathan Broxton (LA), Chuck Tiffany (LA).

    Leave more comments below, and the next time I check back (probably Monday), I’ll have a recap of the top 75.

    WTNYJuly 12, 2004
    Baseball's Crystal Ball
    By Bryan Smith

    “The future of baseball, as far as pitching goes, definitely is in good hands.”
    - Koyie Hill, Dodgers prospect, to Baseball America

    Despite a deceiving final score, the 2004 Futures Game should forever be remembered as a pitchers’ duel, as sixteen of the seventeen pitchers escaped without allowing an earned run. Mostly, it was bad defense that helped plate a total of seven runs, as the two squads combined for three costly errors. After jumping out to an early 4-0 lead, the United States barely held on, surrendering three seventh inning runs.

    The short left field porch of Minute Maid Park had little bearing on the game, as the teams combined for only eleven hits, and an even fewer three extra-base hits. Toronto shortstop prospect Aaron Hill hit one of the three, a two-run, go-ahead double that would later earn him the MVP award. But, there is no question the game belonged to the pitchers, who awed hitters and fans alike with their Major League readiness.

    Joe Blanton, perhaps the pitcher closest to the Majors, started on the mound, allowing a walk and a hit in his scoreless inning. Blanton labored a bit, throwing nineteen pitches, what would be the third highest total of the day. Considered the best player from the Moneyball draft, Blanton was uninspiring, throwing mostly fastballs between 91-94 mph, using his mid-70s curve as a set-up pitch more than an out pitch. Justin Morneau was the only big name he faced, causing the equally-ready first basemen to ground into a fielder’s choice.

    In the bottom half of the inning, my seventh ranked prospect Jeff Francis took the mound for the World team, facing the formidable trio of Chris Burke, B.J. Upton and Dallas McPherson. The Canadian southpaw was up for the challenge, striking out Upton and McPherson to end a 1-2-3 inning. Francis seemed to impress the announcing crew of Tony Gwynn and Peter Gammons more than any other pitcher, showing three Major League pitches in his inning of work. At 6-5, the 23-year-old’s 89-91 mph fastball was deceiving on hitters, and he also showcased a high-70s change up and low-80s slider. I was worried that Francis might rely too much on the fastball after throwing it often early, but he retired McPherson on three straight off speed pitches.

    Tim Stauffer, the Padres fourth overall selection last year, threw a 1-2-3 top half of the second inning, showing as much dominance as the man that preceded him. Stauffer seemed the most ready of any pitcher, throwing three pitches in the ten-pitch inning that included strikeouts of Tony Blanco and Jose Cortes. Stauffer was between 90-91 with the fastball, also showing a low-80s change and high-70s, impressive curve. It seemed the United States had the benefit of facing a worse group of hitters, seeing as though none of their starting lineup was a top 40 prospect (Morneau would be), compared to seven for the U.S.

    There was nothing nearly as exciting as watching Felix Hernandez, my top ranked pitching prospect, as he pitched to hitters nearly six years older than him. The 18-year-old seemed to have a strut walking around the mound, showing extreme confidence despite having to face Prince Fielder and David Wright to lead off the inning. Felix led off the inning with a two mid-90s fastballs, though the Milwaukee first basemen took the second one the other way for a single. Hernandez than went to a 82-84 mph, jaw-dropping curveball on three of the next four pitches, eliminating David Wright in quick order. Koyie Hill led off his at-bat taking a Hernandez fastball to second, where Ruben Gotay and Joel Guzman turned an impressive 4-6-3 double play.

    After two innings, the quality of play seemed to drop, as the third inning would host two of the least impressive pitching performances. I had high hopes for John Danks, a 19-year-old Rangers prospect, who would need 33 pitches to escape a bases loaded jam. Danks surely wasn’t helped by three questionable plays by David Wright, who I had heard was a dependable fielder. After a rather unimpressive at-bat by Joel Guzman ended in a single, Wright made an error, and ten two plays later tagged out Guzman running to third rather than turning a 5-4-3 double play. Last year’s ninth overall selection, Danks pitched slower than some reports had him, throwing between 89-92, and showcasing a curveball he left up quite often. It’s hard to blame the kid, he’s only weeks away from the Midwest League, which hasn’t exactly been a prospect’s paradise this year.

    A Rule V pick last year, Wil Ledezma helped the U.S. break up a scoreless game, though Mariners outfield prospect Shin-Soo Choo is mostly to blame. Ledezma, who some scouts have compared to Johan Santana, showed little else other than a good fastball, giving up singles to Jason Kubel and Burke. With two outs, B.J. Upton popped up to right field, though Choo would lose track of the ball, allowing Kubel and Burke to score before throwing out a confused Upton.

    Clint Everts needed only eight pitches to retire the side, striking out one on a very impressive curve. It seems the Expos top prospect has fallen in love with the pitch, as he threw it on five of his eight pitches. His fastball was only about 86-88, a little too close to his 80 mph curve to be really impressive as he moves up the chain. The same wasn’t true by Jose Capellan, the Braves prospect that seemed to dominate his inning despite allowing a hit to Wright. Capellan threw his fastball from 95-98, using it on thirteen of his fifteen total pitches. His curve was rather unimpressive, and though this might depress Braves’ fans, Capellan reminded me of a younger Kyle Farnsworth.

    Why Bill Murphy made the Futures Game roster I don’t know, and despite a two-strikeout, scoreless inning, I still didn’t know at inning’s end. Murphy walked Cubs’ prospect Felix Pie in his second at-bat, something he’s done 53 times in the Southern League so far this season. Still, Murphy threw mostly fastballs, really only trying to use his breaking ball as an out pitch, which worked one of the three times. Also unimpressive was Arnie Munoz, the White Sox southpaw that has struggled since a terrible spot start, that is lucky to have the runs he allowed go as ‘unearned’.

    After rising prospect Conor Jackson smoked a double to left field, Jason Kubel reached base for the second time thanks to an Andy Marte error. While not the most gracious call by the scorer, Marte should have made the play moving to his left. Munoz forced Oriole outfielder Val Majewski to hit into a fielder’s choice before Fernando Valenzuela brought in Yusmeiro Petit to try and close the inning. Petit’s first batter was Rickie Weeks, last year’s second pick, that hit an unsuccessful infield fly to third. And then came the Hill at-bat, where Petit hung a curve to see Hill smoke a two-run double to left. Petit wasn’t two impressive, throwing only a 89-90 mph fastball, along with an 80-82 mph curveball that he left up a little too much. The numbers were jaw-dropping in the Sally League, sure, but don’t be too quick to put him in your top ten, readers.

    Joke. That is what I thought of Brian Bullington, the former first overall pick that pitched the top half of the sixth inning. But, Bullington impressed me, throwing a low-90s sinker and a very good curve that he can throw strikes with. Maybe he will end up in the bullpen, but Bullington did a nice job against Marte, Choo and Jesus Cota.

    El Mago threw the bottom half, throwing one of the easiest mid-90s fastballs that I have ever seen. It didn’t look like Valdez was laboring at all, and he also threw a change and curve in his eight pitch stint. After retiring Fielder and Wright, Valdez was taken out to let the fans see Jairo Garcia, the A’s reliever that just finished storming threw the Midwest League. For a reliever with an ERA under 1.00, I wasn’t too blown away by Garcia, although the slider he struck Jeff Mathis on was disgusting. Garcia threw a 94-95 mph fastball, and a slider ten miles per hour slower, throwing one of his three well.

    It seemed a sure bet that after six innings the U.S. would win 4-0, considering they were prepared to throw Matt Cain, Gavin Floyd and Kyle Sleeth at the World to end the game. But, the Americans decided to make things interesting, as Cain loaded the bases before registering an out, putting Gavin Floyd in quite the predicament. A Felix Pie single, Robinson Cano sac, and a wild pitch later, it was a one-run game. But, Floyd would strike out Justin Morneau, and Kyle Sleeth would retire Andy Marte to close out the game.

    Watching a game like this, I grow appreciation for scouts, as it was very difficult to get a good read on the makeup of a hitter. I didn’t have a great problem seeing which pitchers I liked and which I didn’t, but adding anything to previous position player scouting reports would be difficult for me. But, I thought the pitching was fantastic in the game, and it definitely provides a good glimpse of the future.


    My breakdown of the game will slow down my next prospect ranking (41-75), which should be on the site late Wednesday night. But, for your viewing pleasure, I’ll give you a glimpse of the next installment, presenting prospects 41-50 without comment:

    41. Ian Stewart- Colorado Rockies- 3B
    42. Joel Guzman- Los Angeles Dodgers- SS
    43. Jake Stevens- Atlanta Braves- SP
    44. Rickie Weeks- Milwaukee Brewers- 2B
    45. Guillermo Quiroz- Toronto Blue Jays- C
    46. Chris Burke- Houston Astros- 2B
    47. Kyle Davies- Atlanta Braves- SP
    48. Dioner Navarro- New York Yankees- C
    49. John Van Benschoten- Pittsburgh Pirates- SP
    50. Ryan Howard- Philadelphia Phillies- 1B

    Drop any Futures Game comments below, and check back on Thursday for a detailed report of my rankings.

    WTNYJuly 05, 2004
    WTNY Midseason 40
    By Bryan Smith

    This winter, I tried making a prospect list for the first time. I learned a ton, about mixing statistics with scouting reports, putting hitters and pitchers together, and the volatility of a teenage pitcher. I learned from the injuries of Dustan McGowan and Greg Miller, as well as the breakouts of David Wright and Jeff Francis. I doubt many people pay attention to the Baseball America Prospect Report as well as I do, and slowly but surely, I’m becoming the prospect maven I never thought I’d be.

    With that being said, below are my top forty prospects in the minor leagues. To make a note, I have left off any player that has graced a Major League roster this year (before July 1), eliminating Justin Moreneau, Casey Kotchman, Edwin Jackson and others.

    1. B.J. Upton- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- SS

    There really is no question about this one. Upton is everything you want in a premium prospect: he’s young, advanced, plays a premium position, has plate discipline and power. He can steal a base, and when he gets focused, can field. The last comment will no doubt be debated by some, but Wait ‘Til Next Year correspondent Daniel Feinstein assures me that highlight reel plays come as often as errors with this kid. Upton will reach the Majors by year’s end, and the Devil Rays slow advancement to a legitimate team will take a huge growth.

    2. David Wright- New York Mets- 3B

    No player has vaulted himself so far forward as David Wright has since the end of the 2003 season. A great Arizona Fall League put Wright into the top five for third base prospects, and his insane .363/.467/.619 line in AA makes him the top. Like the man in front of him, Wright has all the tools, but the most amazing fact is that he already has 48 extra-base hits, 47 walks and 22 stolen bases. Wright will be changing the scope of the Mets lineup by August, and comparisons to Scott Rolen and Howard Johnson are still valid.

    3. Dallas McPherson- Anaheim Angels- 3B

    I admit, I didn’t buy much into the McPherson hype before the season, remembering it was a huge hot streak that made his numbers last year, as opposed to a consistent hot streak. That all changed this year, and McPherson has already earned a promotion to AAA following his 20 home runs and 1.064 OPS in the Texas League. He’s off to a hot start at Salt Lake, hitting five homers in his first ten games. McPherson will help replace Troy Glaus for the rest of the year, and also make him expendable in 2005.

    4. Felix Hernandez- Seattle Mariners- SP

    King Felix made great impressions in a brief stint as a 17-year-old last season, and nothing has changed this year. Seattle thought moving Hernandez to high-A would be a challenge, similar to what Bill Bavasi had done with players like Greg Miller in Los Angeles, but Hernandez was more than enough for California League hitters. Hernandez struck out 114 batters in just 92 innings, while only allowing 85 hits, five home runs and 26 walks. His first start in the Texas League was impressive, but the Mariners might think about shutting Hernandez down the closer he gets to 150 innings. Waiting until mid-2005 for his debut would be a smart move.

    5. Andy Marte- Atlanta Braves- 3B

    I said before the season that Marte was likely to have a catastrophic rise to the Majors similar to Miguel Cabrera in 2003, but a severe ankle sprain has prevented that from becoming truth. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping before the injury, but a .237 ISO is enough for me. Marte is still only twenty years old, and it is probable that Marte and Chipper Jones will make up the 2005 Braves corners.

    6. Grady Sizemore- Cleveland Indians- OF

    Don’t be thrown by Grady’s numbers, they are among the most deceiving in the minor leagues. A bad wrist hindered his numbers for April and May, but a June average near .400 took the overall line to .306/.372/.462. Sure, these aren’t bad numbers, but my argument is they are hardly indicative of where Sizemore stands as a player. He profiles to be a perennial .300 hitter, and with the Indians weakest position being centerfield, his path is clear as day.

    7. Jeff Francis- Colorado Rockies- SP

    There is nothing I’m more proud of about my first prospect ranking than putting Jeff Francis in the top fifty. This was an extremely controversial choice, but the way Francis finished the season convinced me that he was primed to break out. And that he has done, so much so that if the season ended today, Francis would have the Texas League pitching triple crown. Twelve wins, 2.11 ERA, 133 strikeouts. When you consider he’s only walked 22 in 106.2 innings, you might think he’s perfect. But like any other prospect, he doesn’t come without flaws. Francis has allowed nine home runs this year, and his future currently stands to be in Coors Field, which does more than a little to his projectability.

    8. Jeff Mathis- Anaheim Angels- C

    This may be a little high for Mathis, but the top ranked catcher gets a little boost in my mind. Mathis has slowly become a very good defensive catcher, and while Angel pitchers might miss Bengie Molina, Jeff’s bat will make them forget quickly. His .788 OPS is hardly anything to brag about, but he has an ISO of .176 and is on pace for about 70 walks. Few teams can put their catchers towards the middle of the order, but it won’t be long before that luxury is available to the Angels. Mathis will need one more year in the minors, but I really believe he’s ready.

    9. Prince Fielder- Milwaukee Brewers- 1B

    Another controversial choice here, as Fielder’s .801 OPS is well below others on this list. But remember, Prince is still just a baby in prospect terms, and he’s doing this well for a guy in the Southern League. Cecil’s son has lost weight, but has also slipped considerably since a red-hot April. Fielder still has a .192 ISO, plays a decent first base, and should hit thirty home runs before 2004 ends. He’ll also take a little longer than expected, not debuting until 2006, or becoming a permanent mainstay until 2007. That’s a recurring trend around a lot of the Brewer prospects, a system that has taken a bit of a hurt this year.

    10. Cole Hamels- Philadelphia Phillies- SP

    I ranked B.J. Upton first on this list for a reason. I think he’s going to be an All-Star, bringing back the numbers that A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar touted in their hey-days. So, when reading Upton say that Cole Hamels was the best pitcher he had faced, I was shocked. Hamels, when healthy, has control of one of the game’s best change ups, and it won’t be long before that reaches the Major Leagues. Problem is, Hamels has only made four starts this season, and no matter how well they have gone, we can’t get a great read of where he’s at. This is my riskiest ranking, but instincts will allow him to round out my top ten.

    11. Franklin Gutierrez- Cleveland Indians- OF

    Sure, Gutierrez is hardly hitting home runs like he did last season, but I wouldn’t count those kind of numbers out in the future. Gutierrez hit so well in AA this season that he was recently moved up to the International League, though it appears his immediate future is blocked by the Indians outfield of Lawton-Sizemore-Gerut. Gutierrez still managed 30 extra-base hits in 249 Eastern League at-bats, and while only five were home runs, I’d expect more to start going over the fence soon. I have only two real complaints about Franklin: first, his stolen base numbers are down significantly this year, and he also doesn’t walk enough yet, not even on pace to reach 50 walks.

    12. Matt Cain- San Francisco Giants- SP

    With Cain, the numbers speak for themselves. I can try to justify my pick by telling you that Cain mixes a mid-90s fastball with one of the game’s best curveballs, or I can just give his California League numbers: 7-1, 1.86 ERA, 58H, 17BB, and 89K in just 72.2 IP. The dominance has continued since being moved up to the Texas League, where Cain has allowed just five earned runs in his first four starts, good for a 1.88 ERA. San Francisco could use some rotation depth, so Cain will be given a shot as early as next Spring Training.

    13. Dan Meyer- Atlanta Braves- SP

    More astounding numbers come from the top Atlanta pitching prospect, a compliment considering that as many as six Brave pitching prospects made good arguments for this list. Meyer, who doesn’t throw spectacularly hard, was the Southern League ace in the first half, with a WHIP below 1.00 and a K/BB above seven. He struck out 86 batters in sixty-five innings, proving that he can mix control with good stuff like few other players can boast. His ceiling may not be as high as the previous four pitchers, but of the group, I’m most sure Meyer will reach his.

    14. Jeff Francoeur- Atlanta Braves- OF

    Yes, the Braves are back to having the game’s best minor league system. Francoeur, their former first round pick, is having a great season in a park not exactly fit for hitting. He’s the best of the three high-A outfield prospects you’ll see in the top twenty, merely based on potential. He already has 36 extra-base hits, giving him an ISO of .209. He walks about as much as Franklin Gutierrez does, numbers we hope improve as he goes up the ladder. Andruw Jones is rumored to be on the trade block, and if he goes, Francoeur will eventually replace him in centerfield. But as the Cubs have learned with Corey Patterson’s slow development, there is simply no reason to rush him.

    15. Clint Everts- Montreal Expos- SP

    Expos first round picks are not always justifiable, but Everts is an exception to the rule. After not pitching much last year, Everts has exploded to the tune of a 1.99 ERA. Last year’s top pick, Delmon Young, referred to him as the best pitcher he had faced yet. Everts has only given up three homers this year, and his K/BB is well over five. I’ve heard great things about his breaking ball, and there is no question that he is the jewel of a rather dry Expos system.

    16. Michael Aubrey- Cleveland Indians- 1B

    It’s possible that if the Indians had the first pick in last year’s draft, they still would have selected Michael Aubrey. After a fantastic college career, the Indians though high-A would be a good destination this year. They were wrong. Aubrey tore up the Carolina League, walking more than he struck out, and showing enough power to give him a .988 OPS. Aubrey was promoted to AA after only 60 games, a fantastic compliment for a position player a year removed from college. The Eastern League has proven to be a challenge, but I have no doubt that with one more year’s work, the Indians will have a new first basemen in 2006.

    17. Gavin Floyd- Philadelphia Phillies- SP

    No one has ever questioned the curveball of Gavin Floyd. But the Phillies, worried their prized right-hander might fall in love with the pitch, set quotas on just how often he could throw it. This is my explanation for why his numbers have never been that good, until this year. By the looks of him numbers, I would guess the right-hander can throw the curve whenever he pleases now, helping him to land a 2.86 ERA. His strikeout numbers, only 74 in 92 innings, are still a bit concerning, but his low H/9 and HR/9 numbers combat that quite nicely.

    18. Jeremy Hermida- Florida Marlins- OF

    Of Francoeur, Pie and Hermida, there is no question who is the most polished. Hermida has the best eye, the best ability to make contact, the cleanest defense, and the best baserunning. His stolen base numbers are down this year, but ending up with thirty stolen bases still isn’t out of the question. Power is not his defining trait, but Hermida’s .494 SLG more than holds his own for players on this list. My guess is that Hermida will follow Juan Pierre as the Marlins’ leadoff hitter, proving to be one of the best in the business.

    19. Merkin Valdez- San Francisco Giants- SP

    After an early season injury, El Mago started to justify the hype he garnered all of last season. Formerly Manuel Mateo, Valdez was traded from the Braves, and the deal keeps paying dividends for San Francisco. Valdez joined Matt Cain in San Jose for awhile, forming the top 1-2 combination in the minor leagues. Valdez has recently been promoted to AAA, after walking only five in the 33.2 innings he pitched in the California League. Valdez also mixes in pinpoint control, a trait that should serve him well as he beats Cain to the Majors.

    20. Felix Pie- Chicago Cubs- OF

    Pie’s story is a good one, a small Dominican boy who walked into tryouts with no hype, and walked out with a contract. The Cubs continue to thank their lucky stars, as Pie has continued from where he left off last year. Still a little raw, it’s near impossible to conceive what kind of player Felix will turn into. His ‘raw’ power is still just that, but it’s the great speed and defense that lands Pie on this list. Common thought is that an outfield of Patterson, Pie and Ryan Harvey will be in Wrigley shortly after Sosa’s retirement, but I’ll have to see that to believe it. One thing I do believe, is that Felix Pie is going to become one darn good ballplayer, whether he develops the power or not.

    21. Scott Kazmir- New York Mets- SP

    Trust me, I’m being generous ranking Kazmir this high, as everytime he pitches, I think the inevitable move to the bullpen is coming the next day. He’s been hurt most of this season, but since coming back has hardly dominated the Florida State League that we thought he mastered a year ago. Maybe Kazmir will be able to turn into Billy Wagner, but I find it hard to believe he’ll make it as a starting pitcher. For now, we wait, amazed that a southpaw so small can generate such hard power on his pitches. Kazmir needs to turn his season around in the second half, or his ranking won’t be so generous the next time.

    22. Jeff Salazar- Colorado Rockies- OF

    Last year it was Jeremy Reed that appeared out of nowhere, rising from Long Beach State all the way to hitting .400 in a second half promotion to AA. This year it has been another left-handed hitting corner outfielder that has surprised us with his contact and discipline at high-A. Salazar, formerly an Oklahoma State Cowboy, has now become the best Rockie position prospect, and for good reason. Salazar has a .347 average, more runs than games and more walks than strikeouts. He has 40 extra-base hits, and seventeen stolen bases, in only nineteen attempts. He looks perfect, much like Reed did last year, but I’m going to try to learn my lesson and wait before thrusting him into my top ten.

    23. Jose Capellan- Atlanta Braves- SP

    The fourth Brave in the top 25 is Capellan, a hard-throwing right-hander that made a mockery of high-A hitters before a promotion. Capellan, who can hit 100 mph on a radar gun, allowed only 27 hits and 11 walks in 46.1 innings at Myrtle Beach before rising to the Southern League. Capellan has stayed relatively consistent in terms of ERA and K/9 since the promotion, striking out 40 in 33.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA. There is still a possibility that Capellan will end up in the bullpen, he’s the kind that often turns into a closer, but first the Braves are going to have for Jose to slow down.

    24. Jeremy Reed- Seattle Mariners- OF

    The aforementioned Reed has slowed down this year, and the fact that scouts have yet to buy into the sabermatrician’s dream led to Reed’s trade from the Chicago White Sox organization. Mariner bloggers have been more than pleased to land Reed, who has 38 walks against 34 strikeouts so far this year. Reed’s contact skills have diminished a bit this year, though I look for his average to pick up a bit in the Pacific Coast League. Reed’s power numbers have increased this year, giving more hope that he’ll be able to have the numbers that corner outfielders should have. Next year Seattle will put Raul Ibanez at first base, and Reed will have every opportunity in the world to take over in left field.

    25. Travis Blackley- Seattle Mariners- SP

    The back-to-back Mariners may be the most advanced players on this list, seeing as though Reed’s eye is as disciplined as they come, and Blackley is more than ready for the Major Leagues. So ready, in fact, that he was moved up to the Majors this week, beating out the July 1 deadline that I set when making this list. Blackley should be up in Seattle for the rest of the year, and while his K/9 and K/BB numbers aren’t the greatest, his pitchability and curveball are both great attributes. To get back in their rightful spot on top of the AL West, Bill Bavasi is going to have to start from the beginning. They’re off to a good start.

    26. Conor Jackson- Arizona Diamondbacks- OF

    Doubles machine. This is what Jackson was last year after being chosen by the Diamondbacks in the draft. He was one of three corner college players chosen by the Diamondbacks, a group that Baseball America has called the Tres Amigos. Jackson is the better prospect of Carlos Quentin and Jamie D’Antona, thanks in large part to his amazing numbers this season. Before a promotion to AA, Jackson hit .345/.438/.562 in 258 at-bats. The slugging has decreased a bit since moving to the Texas League, but Jackson’s eye looks unbeatable, as his OBP is .476 after ten AA games. Jackson plays left field, and it won’t be long before the Diamondbacks firesale allows the team to trade icon Luis Gonzalez, Jackson’s lone roadblock.

    27. Ervin Santana- Anaheim Angels- SP

    Like many of the pitchers on this list, Santana was hurt to start the season, but has been dynamite since returning to the minor leagues. Ervin was sent back to the Texas League, where he finished out his 2003 season, and has been the Travelers’ ace through his first eight starts. I admitted in my WTNY 50 that I didn’t buy into the Santana hype much, but his numbers support the claims that people as respected as Peter Gammons have made.

    28. Delmon Young- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- OF

    More than any other player on this list, this choice was made due to projectability rather than a deserving ranking based on their numbers. Young’s .334 OBP would be laughed at by some players on this list, but considering his age, an ISO just below .200 is fantastic. Young’s power is immense, and his second half will determine if he makes it higher than 28 (and I think he will) when my end of year rankings come out. Young likely won’t be a D-Ray until 2008, but who knows, maybe he’ll have Josh Hamilton to join him by then.

    29. Tim Stauffer- San Diego Padres- SP

    I didn’t like this pick by the Padres last year, thinking Stauffer’s numbers were hardly good enough to deserve a top five selection. But Stauffer has proven differently, as he is currently pitching in the Pacific Coast League, his third league of the season. While the Padres have drawn much criticism for their handling of the top pick this year, give the team some credit for identifying Stauffer last year. The right-hander had a 1.78 ERA in the California League after six starts, and a 2.63 ERA in eight Southern League starts. His peripheral numbers aren’t great, but the guy can pitch, and he’ll undoubtedly be the first starting pitcher chosen last year to make the Majors this September.

    30. Ian Kinsler- Texas Rangers- SS

    A lot of the people on this list I could have envisioned breaking out before the season started, but not Kinsler. According to Baseball America, the former University of Missouri shortstop was chosen based on his defense, not his bat. But it was the bat that convinced Ranger brass that the former 17th round choice could handle a move from the Midwest League, to the Texas League. After hitting .400 as a Clinton Lumberking, Kinsler’s OPS is again above 1.000 through his first seventeen games as a Roughrider. Texas’ infield is pretty blocked, but moving Soriano to center and Michael Young to second would be a great idea to make room for their new gem.

    31. Jeff Baker- Colorado Rockies- 3B

    Taken alongside Jeff Francis in the draft, Baker’s breakout has been clouded by Francis’ AA greatness. But don’t forget Baker, who joins Ian Stewart and Jeff Salazar in one of the best three position player combinations in the minor leagues. His OPS is also over 1.000, thanks to 30 home run power and a great batting eye. He’s very prone to strikeouts, there is no doubt that total will reach 100 (if not 120) by season’s close. Also, Baker has already made 20 errors at the hot corner, and while I don’t have a report on him, my guess is last year’s first round pick Stewart will force a move at some point. The idea of having Helton, Stewart, Baker and Salazar on the corners just might be enough for Dan O’Dowd to hang onto his job a little longer.

    32. Joe Blanton- Oakland Athletics- SP

    Like I said with Delmon Young, Blanton doesn’t necessarily have the numbers to hang with other guys on this list. His ERA is nearing 4.00, and (gasp!) he’s allowed more hits than innings pitched. This is danger territory, but I’m intrigued by good control, and the ability to keep the ball out of the park, even in the Pacific Coast League. His top 40 selection is also due to the fact that even without Rick Peterson, I trust the A’s ability to develop pitchers. Billy Beane loved this guy out of Kentucky, and he’ll definitely be one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year in 2005.

    33. Angel Guzman- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Another pitcher rehabbing from injury, you’ll likely be taken back after reading Guzman’s rehab numbers from the Florida State League. The Cubs, who have done a good job handling sore arms of late, sent Guzman to the FSL to keep that arm warm an extra few months upon his return. While the top prospect’s 4.20 ERA is anything but amazing considering he was repeating the level, it’s his peripherals that astound me. In thirty innings, the right-hander allowed 27 hits, struck out 40, and walked zero. Once again, Guzman had a 40/0 K/BB in high-A, before being moved up to the Southern League. His high ERA tells me that his pitchability isn’t great, but expectations are still sky-high for the Cubs’ Angel.

    34. Justin Huber- New York Mets- C

    Being a catcher is great for a prospect, because you don’t have to have the numbers that most hitting prospects carry. Huber has slumped recently of late, but his season line of .272/.408/.460 is fantastic for a catching prospect. Huber’s defense is a bit lacking, but the Mets will concede that when considering his power and plate discipline. The Australian still must improve all facets of his game to stay on this list, because a poor second half will not only make him drop, but will cause a drop clear off the list.

    35. Jason Kubel- Minnesota Twins- OF

    Think Jeremy Reed 2003, without the plate discipline. Instead, Kubel has fantastic contact skills that led to a .377 average in the Eastern League before being promoted to AAA. Being an outfielder in the Twins’ organization is a death penalty, but Kubel’s 41 extra-base hits gives Terry Ryan one great piece of trade bait. This is another player on the list I forecast will drop by year’s end, but for now, I gotta give the kid his due.

    36. Daric Barton- St. Louis Cardinals- C

    Boy, I’ve never seen a high school kid so advanced in his first full year of professional play. Barton, about a year after being the first Cardinal drafted, is hitting an insane .331/.465/.566 in the Midwest League. Recent slumps have taken the average below .400 and the OBP below .500, but those numbers are the kind that makes someone a top prospect. I’ve heard pretty good things about his defense, but an early season injury has forced Barton to only play half of his 40 games behind the plate. Like everyone else here, we’ll have a much better feel for Barton in September, but two thumbs up so far.

    37. John Danks- Texas Rangers- SP

    I’m trying to be very hesitant with low-A pitchers this year, considering the early season struggles that Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir have seen. Danks is pretty comparable to the latter, but I just can’t see not putting him on my top 40 list. The hard-throwing southpaw ate up the Midwest League in fourteen appearances, thriving off the four-man rotation style format that Grady Fuson uses in the minor leagues. Last year’s ninth overall selection has a 3.39 ERA in three starts for the Stockton Ports, but barring injury, Danks is probably a better prospect than Kinsler.

    38. Yusmeiro Petit- New York Mets- SP

    Soothsayers have compared Petit to Sid Fernandez, a former Major League pitcher that had fantastic numbers in the minor leagues. The reason this comparison works is Petit, like Fernandez, had unreal numbers in fifteen low-A starts. In 83 innings, Petit allowed only 47 hits and 22 walks, against an insane 122 strikeouts. For those of you scoring at home, that’s a WHIP below 1.00, a K/BB above 5.00, and a K/9 nearing 13.50. Petit finds himself below a lot of Met prospects, but if these numbers continue, he’ll head the list in the winter.

    39. Bobby Brownlie- Chicago Cubs- SP

    Another forecast I’m proud of, I saw very good things from Brownlie this season, and he hasn’t let me down. Like Tim Stauffer, Brownlie doesn’t have great numbers, but I guess the better comparison is Gavin Floyd. Like Floyd, Brownlie has a great curveball that has led to a high HR/9 and low K/9, but a darn good ERA. If Matt Clement leaves Chicago next winter, and that’s a very likely scenario, Brownlie will be in a race with Guzman, Ryan Dempster, and many other Cub pitchers for the fifth spot in that vaunted rotation.

    40. Jesse Crain- Minnesota Twins- RP

    Relief prospects are generally overrated, but Crain deserves the hype he’s gotten. After rising through three levels last season, Crain has had a home in Rochester this year, appearing in 33 games as the Red Wings’ closer. But, Crain should be preparing for a move, as the Twins could no doubt use some help in the bullpen towards the end of the year. Crain might not be the immediate closer, but setting up Joe Nathan will be a wonderful way to start what will likely be a great career.

    That’s it for now, next time I’ll talk about the people that just missed this list.

    WTNYJune 24, 2004
    Not Just Another 9-5 Game
    By Bryan Smith

    When I go to Sox games, I feel like I have to repent or something, like it’s a sort of sin for a Cubs fan to enter the premise of U.S. Cellular Field. But the fact is that I love baseball, and I would watch the Independent League if given tickets. I was raised by a family of Sox fans, but broke to the North side before turning ten. I still root for the Sox 156 games a year, whether that makes me less of a Cubs fan, I don’t think so.

    I was offered tickets to go to last night’s Sox-Indians game, and I jumped at the chance, seeing as though I like both teams. I’ve liked Cleveland ever since meeting GM Mark Shapiro last year, and they are the type of underdog that I like rooting for. So, I went to the game with very little care on the final outcome, more a hope to see good baseball. The match-up was Cliff Lee, the former AL ERA leader, and Mark Buerhle, the Sox ace. The Sox were three games up on the Indians before the game, but both were sitting behind the division-leading Minnesota Twins.

    Cliff Lee is an interesting story himself. After briefly holding the AL ERA lead, Lee has had a terrible month, watching his ERA sky over six. This is mainly due to the fact that the southpaw has given up six home runs in 23 innings in June, as opposed to only two in his first 59.2 innings. Watching Lee earlier in the season, I got a feel for his scouting report. Lee has three pitches, a fastball, slow curve, and slider. His fastball is thrown more than any other pitch, and he often uses it as his out pitch.

    Here is something interesting:

    1. .312 vs. .310
    2. .281 vs. .305
    3. .326 vs. .289
    4. .320 vs. .299
    5. .275 vs. .266
    6. .318 vs. .267
    7. .264 vs. .237
    8. .262 vs. .412
    9. .273 vs. .269

    These are the averages of the nine batters that each team had in their lineup Wednesday, but suprisingly, the first column (the generally higher averages) are the Indians rather than the vaunted White Sox. The largest number is .412, but White Sox utility player Jamie Burke has only registered 17 at-bats this season. Cleveland is hitting very well, with the front foursome of Belliard, Vizquel, Lawton and Martinez all doing their part for the AL’s second best offense.

    The first inning went extraordinarily quick, as the two southpaws threw a combined nineteen pitches, and each had one strikeout and two flyouts. The White Sox scored first, when Burke (who destroys lefties) hit a single to bring in Carlos Lee. Chicago made Lee throw 27 second inning pitches, trying to make Eric Wedge go to the second worst bullpen in baseball.

    This is where it gets weird. After Coco Crisp struck out to lead the inning, Ronnie Belliard hit the second pitch he saw over the fence to tie the game. Including Belliard, the Indians had sixteen out of their next seventeen batters put one of the first three pitches they saw into play. Buerhle’s stuff was terrible, and those seventeen batters scored five runs, including three home runs by Belliard, Casey Blake and Lou Merloni. Buerhle finished the sixth inning haven thrown only 68 pitches, despite allowing five runs on seven hits.

    In this span, the White Sox managed to score one run, as the red-hot Aaron Rowand hit a solo shot in the fifth inning. Rowand has a .437/.524/.730 line in June, splitting time between center and right. He’s hitting lefties at a .400 clip, and will present a big problem when Magglio Ordonez comes back. While I don’t think he’s a good enough player to play everyday when Maggs leaves next year, he presents a nice way to break in the left-handed Jeremy Reed.

    Paul Konerko led off the sixth inning hitting a home run on Lee’s 89th pitch, and Cliff would finish the inning with 103 pitches. While it looked like the Indians were absolutely destroying the Sox, Chicago was only two runs back, and had three innings against a bullpen with an ERA around 5.50. Buerhle helped the hope around the Cell grow when he had his best inning since the first in the seventh, retiring the 1-3 hitters in order, throwing only twelve pitches. Mark had thrown seven innings, but only stood at 80 pitches. Following the Arnie Munoz disaster in Montreal (a 3.2 inning start), Ozzie Guillen was not about to go to his bullpen.

    Lee left the game after six innings giving up only three runs, another quality start, giving the ball to right-hander Rafael Betancourt. I was impressed with Betancourt, a small right-hander that attacked hitters with a fastball ranging from 91-93 mph. After retiring the first two hitters, the Big Hurt hit a towering flyball that looked to be a sure home run, until the wind brought it back onto the warning track. Matt Lawton and Coco Crisp were in confusion as the ball hit off Lawton’s glove, allowing Thomas to get to second base on a two-base error. Carlos Lee then smoked a pitch down the left field line, and although it hit the yellow portion of the outfield wall, the ball stayed in play. Thomas was able to score before Matt Lawton was able to throw out Lee at second, making it a one-run game.

    The eighth inning started very poorly for the home team, as Martinez, Blake and Hafner led off the inning with singles, ending Buerhle’s day before registering an out in the eighth. Guillen opted for his worst reliever, Mike Jackson, to enter the game with the bases loaded. Eric Wedge then substituted struggling first basemen Ben Broussard for Lou Merloni, who promptly crushed a grand slam into the right field seats. Guillen’s mistake was glaring, and it was the first time I had ever heard a White Sox fan asking for Billy Koch.

    Though Konerko managed to lead off the eighth inning with his second home run of the day, the White Sox were not able to get back into the game. Betancourt’s one earned run in two innings would raise his ERA, but I thought the right-hander threw well. He’s allowed 39 hits in 33.2 innings this year, but his K/9 is under ten, and his K/BB is 38/6. David Riske, once the Indians closer, closed out the game in the ninth with one scoreless inning. Mind you that in his last twenty innings, Riske has given up only three runs, on eleven hits, seven walks and 21 strikeouts. Cleveland’s bullpen underachieved greatly in the first half, and if the lineup can continue their overachieiving for the rest of the season, Cleveland just might make a run at the AL Central.

    I wanted to write this post to say that when you read your newspaper this morning, and scan over the 9-5 score from Chicago, just know it was one great game. Sure there were more exciting games on Wednesday, but I’m quite happy I attended this one.

    WTNYJune 21, 2004
    Buying v. Selling
    By Bryan Smith

    This is the great question for some teams, whether it's time to throw the luggage off the boat, or to merely keep treading along. Fill the system with prospects for bad publicity?

    I'll be writing a lot on potential deadline deals in the coming weeks, but I think the best place to start is with who will be doing the dealing. Peter White had a great profile on potential trade victim Freddy Garcia, who I still can't imagine becoming a Yankee. For now, let's deal with what teams will be doing what.

    AL East
    - Yankees: It doesn't take a genius to realize that the Yankees are always buyers, and with a wide 4.5 game gap on the Red Sox, they'll be prepping for the playoffs. Centerfield, second base, and one more in both the rotation and bullpen could be good acquisitions for the Bronx Bombers.

    - Red Sox: Theo Epstein isn't going down without a fight. Boston is the favorite to win the Wild Card, but they are only a game up on the Rangers, and two in front of the Anaheim Angels. Boston needs starting pitching, but are surprisingly deep besides that.

    - Devil Rays: Yes, the 11-game streak will be great for the public relations department. But this team has no chance of catching the Red Sox (6 back), and if they get an offer for players like Jose Cruz Jr. and Tino Martinez, they better bite the bullet.

    - Blue Jays: They should have been better than this, but since injuries have decimated this team, look for J.P. Riccardi to start looking towards next year. The team has a month to decide where players like Carlos Delgado, Orlando Hudson and Frank Catalanotto fit on future plans.

    - Orioles: There just isn't a lot to sell here. The team is either tied up in long-term contracts, or pretty young, so I think Baltimore might be silent at the trade deadline. Peter Angelos is still plotting where those relocation checks will go.

    AL Central

    - Twins: Very lucky they are a half game up right now, and Terry Ryan better take advantage. The team is ridiculously deep in hitters, but could use another starter. And while the bullpen has been good, another arm would be a very welcome addition.

    - White Sox: Why aren't they in first place? Chicago needs a starter very bad at this point, and Ken Williams NEEDS to win a division this season. Landing another ace would be a good thing, but they are fine after that.

    - Indians: With a different bullpen, this team might be in first place. As it stands, they are only 4.5 back, and very capable of winning the division. Mark Shapiro must add bullpen arms, and picking Curt Leskanic off the free agent market would be a nice start.

    - Tigers: This is our first wait and see team. This division is extremely week, and if the Tigers get Devil Ray-like hot, they could find themselves very close. Seven games back isn't too far, but if they are still that far back in mid-July, sell, sell, sell.

    - Royals: Just about as obvious as the Yankees. Allard Baird has not hid his intentions, so we know that just about every deal he gets offered is going to happen.

    AL West

    - Athletics: Better version of the Cleveland Indians. The A's would be in first by a mile if not for their bullpen, and that must change in the second half. Everyone is quick to want to add something to the lineup, but Beane's largest intention should be finding a closer.

    - Rangers: I'm still in disbelief a bit that this is true. Texas? Who would have thunk it. Now, John Hart must see if he can get some pitching to go with that lineup, because if so, they have a very outside chance of the playoffs. Giving up any potential building blocks would be stupid, but a few small deals would be smart.

    - Angels: I would say the Red Sox, White Sox, Indians and Angels are the only non-first place teams that have realistic hopes of the playoffs. We don't know if we've seen the real Angels quite yet, so I don't know quite what to advise. The only minor lineup hole is at the hot corner, and I don't think swinging some of their top prospects for a Carlos Beltran or pitcher would be worth it.

    - Mariners: Bill Bavasi will be dumping, there is no question about it. I could see something major like Bret Boone to the Yanks happening, but for now, I'll just assume the trading block to include Freddy Garcia and Eddie Guardado.

    Back with the NL a bit later...

    WTNYJune 21, 2004
    Rashomon Monday
    By Bryan Smith

    So, if you haven’t seen it on the homepage, today is what we will call Rashomon Monday at All-Baseball. Last night, our ever-strict boss Christian, MADE us watch the Yankees-Dodgers game, and devote today’s entry to it. Slave labor? Quite possibly.

    It’s no secret to readers of this site that I’m one of the many Cub fans at A-B, so really this game meant nothing to me. But, since I haven’t been following baseball closely for too long, much of my fandom has been spent watching the Yankees play October after October. Because of that, I’ve grown a deep hatred for the Yankees, and root against them every time they play the field. It’s not working well.

    If I was maybe thirty years older the Dodgers might have earned my same hatred, but as of now they don’t bother me too much. I picked them to win the division each of the last three years (before 2004), and for some reason, they always let me down.

    Being a huge fan of prospect watching, another reason these two teams have never gained a ton of my notice is that both systems are typically bare. The Dodgers has gotten much better of late, with Edwin Jackson and Greg Miller (now injured) both making my top 50 before the season. James Loney, Chuck Tiffany, Mike Megrew, Koyie Hill. There are a lot on the way, but there aren’t a lot currently on the Major League roster to reflect success. As for the Yankees, the best we’ve seen of late is Brad Halsey, who beat the Dodgers on Saturday night in his Major League debut. It’s always hard to refer to someone as a Yankees prospect, because once they reach that status, they aren’t Yankees anymore.

    But, these two teams are in first place, and with their history, the drama was sure to be there. While the Jose Contreras v. Jose Lima match-up doesn’t seem too intriguing, I’ve been a big Contreras fan since watching him dominate the White Sox last September. I think he’s got a ton of potential, and was really excited to watch him pitch. During the game, ESPN showed the highlight of Contreras dominating the Orioles as a member of the Cuban National team, and Jose looked 100% more lean than he is today. Lima, if nothing else, is a very fun player to watch, showing emotions that are only overshadowed by Carlos Zambrano.

    Reading the pitching lines today, you really won’t get a great impression of how the pitchers played yesterday. This is especially true for Contreras, who was much better than his four runs and seven hits in six innings would suggest. Contreras gave up all four runs in the second inning, as well as five of the seven hits. In the other five innings, Contreras allowed two hits, zero runs, and stuck out four hitters. The second inning started off poorly, as Jose made his worst pitch of the day to Shawn Green, who pulled the ball just over the fence in right-center.

    Next was Paul Lo Duca, who took a good outside pitch down the first base line for a double. The pitch and spot were perfect, but Paul showed a great piece of hitting, and went the other way for an extra-base hit. Then, Contreras made his second-worst pitch of the day to Adrian Beltre (akin to the Cubs Aramis Ramirez, IMO), who pulled a single between Jeter and A-Rod. It didn’t score a run, another reason why Dave Studenmund’s recent piece on Run Producers is so important. Instead of Beltre, it was Juan Encarnacion, who hit a deep fly ball to Kenny Lofton, who ‘earned’ the RBI. Then, Contreras started to get very unlucky, as in two of the next three at-bats, both Alex Cora and Dave Roberts had bloops fall in between Jeter and Lofton. Roberts’ hit allowed both Beltre and Cora to score, and just like that, the Yankees were down 4-0.

    The extent of Jose Lima’s bad pitching came in the next two at-bats, when he gave up back-to-back home runs to Hideki Matsui and Miguel Cairo. The first was a high and away fastball that Matsui took the other way, far over the fence in left-center. Hideki is a very good hitter, and the pitch wasn’t even that bad, though Lima’s fastball simply lacks any luster. This was also apparent in the Cairo at-bat, as Miguel was able to turn on a fastball and knock it inches over the fence in left. After those at-bats, Lima calmed down and pitched four innings, allowing three hits and one ‘run’.

    I say run hesitantly, as I don’t think Lima deserved to have the run put to his name. To start off the seventh inning, Lima gave up a hit to Jason Giambi, to put him at 84 pitches overall. But for some reason, Jim Tracy decided it was time to pull the plug, and brought in Darren Dreifort to face Gary Sheffield. Even before the at-bat, I thought Tracy was over-managing, and should let Lima finish the inning, if at least not the next two batters. Dreifort immediately allowed a single to Gary Sheffield, and then managed to induce Jorge Posada into a double play. With Giambi on third, Tracy came off the bench again, bringing in southpaw Tom Martin to face Hideki Matsui. The Japanese outfielder made Tracy regret the move, as he tripled, obviously bringing in Giambi and narrowing the game to 4-3. Guillermo Mota then came in, and got pinch-hitter Ruben Sierra to fly out to left field. While a run may have scored regardless, charging the run to Jose Lima seems cheap to me.

    To this second, I still don’t quite understand the Dave Roberts at-bat against Paul Quantrill in the bottom half of the inning. With two outs, Roberts hit the ball to left field, where Hideki Matsui made a bad error, allowing Roberts to round the bases. This mistake would prove fatal, and more than made up for the triple Matsui had hit only minutes earlier. At this point Dodger Stadium was a madhouse, and the few Yankee fans were drained out by the 55,000 in Dodger blue. Jose Lima is a little like Zambrano, Beltre a bit like Ramirez, and Dodger Stadium is definitely similar to Wrigley Field.

    Eric Gagne came in with two outs and a man on second to face Alex Rodriguez, in what turned to be an epic at-bat. The face-off reminded me of A-Rod vs. Schilling from last year’s All-Star Game, when Schilling promised to blow heat past the MVP, and did so. Gagne threw Rodriguez his best fastball, and dared the third basemen to catch up to it, but he couldn’t. You definitely got an impression of Gagne’s dominance, and at that point, I was ready to hang his plaque in upstate New York..

    Jason Giambi helped make things interesting in the ninth, by leading the inning off with a home run. The now-81 long save streak is going to end at some point, and if not for Matsui’s error, it may have been today. Giambi has been playing great of late, and I think he is an integral part of their hopes for a division title. The second epic battle came with two outs against Matsui, who had already taken two pitchers for extra-base hits earlier in the game. After getting up early in the count, Hideki fought back to make it a full count, before Gagne got Jeff Kellogg to pull the plug on the game.

    Overall, it was a fun experience. I’ve watched almost every Cubs game in the last week, so I think today was good for me to get a different view of baseball. It’s hard for me to not watch a game and think of the Cubs, which leads me to relating things like Jose Lima, Adrian Beltre and Dodger Stadium to things I’m used to. I never imagined I would be impressed by Lima, but I might actually agree with the team about not pulling the plug on Jose in the rotation quite yet.

    I want to thank Christian for this idea, I think it was a great one. While the Reds, Cubs and Giants games might have been a bit more interesting, it was a cool game to watch.

    WTNYJune 07, 2004
    Mock Draft, take 2
    By Bryan Smith

    I've spent the last few hours reading nearly every major newspaper in the country, and I have decided on a set top 13, it goes as follows...

    1. Padres- Matt Bush
    2. Tigers- Justin Verlander
    3. Mets- Phillip Humber
    4. Devil Rays- Jeff Niemann
    5. Brewers- Mark Rogers
    6. Indians- Jeremy Sowers
    7. Reds- Homer Bailey
    8. Orioles- Stephen Drew
    9. Rockies- Chris Nelson
    10. Rangers- Wade Townsend
    11. Pirates- Neil Walker
    12. Angels- Phillip Hughes
    13. Expos- Thomas Diamond

    And to me, this is where things get a bit hazy. But I'll continue...

    14. Royals- Josh Fields
    15. Diamondbacks- David Purcey
    16. Blue Jays- Zach Jackson

    Now, I believe Jered Weaver will go either at 17 or 19, and it's very hard to say. But, I'll try anyway....

    17. Dodgers- Jered Weaver
    18. White Sox- Scott Elbert
    19. Cardinals- B.J. Syzmanski
    20. Twins- Glen Perkins
    21. Phillies- Jay Rainville
    22. Twins- Billy Butler
    23. Yankees- Eric Hurley
    24. Athletics- Danny Putnam
    25. Twins- Justin Orenduff
    26. Athletics- Huston Street
    27. Marlins- Gio Gonzalez
    28. Dodgers- Kurt Suzuki
    29. Royals- Mike Ferris
    30. Rangers- Greg Golson

    That's the best I got...

    WTNYJune 07, 2004
    Draft Day
    By Bryan Smith

    I trust everything Baseball America says, and sometimes I think that may be one of my weaknesses as a writer. It's late, and the BA website has a report that the Padres have agreed to a pre-draft deal with high school shortstop Matt Bush. Whether this is true or not, I don't know, but I'll give 2 different mock top tens:

    Mock Draft #1 (If Drew Goes #1)
    1. Padres- Stephen Drew
    2. Tigers- Justin Verlander
    3. Mets- Phillip Humber
    4. Devil Rays- Jeff Niemann
    5. Brewers- Homer Bailey
    6. Indians- Jeremy Sowers
    7. Reds- Chris Nelson
    8. Orioles- Jered Weaver
    9. Rockies- Matt Bush
    10. Rangers- Wade Townsend

    Mock Draft #2 (If Bush goes #1)
    1. Padres- Matt Bush
    2. Tigers- Stephen Drew
    3. Mets- Justin Verlander
    4. Devil Rays- Jeff Niemann
    5. Brewers- Phillip Humber
    6. Indians- Jeremy Sowers
    7. Reds- Chris Nelson
    8. Orioles- Homer Bailey
    9. Rockies- Jered Weaver
    10. Rangers- Wade Townsend

    Consensus Choices
    - Tampa will select Jeff Niemann with the 2nd choice
    - High school shortstop Chris Nelson will drop to #7
    - Rice pitcher Wade Townsend will stay in Texas

    After that, the next 5 choices are: Pirates, Angels, Expos, Royals, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Twins.

    Expect the Pirates to choose homestate catcher Neil Walker in the eleventh spot, for both emotional and economical reasons. Then, I expect the Angels to take a high school pitcher with the #12 selection in the draft. If Townsend, Sowers, or Weaver reach Arte Moreno he will bite, but if not, my guess is Orange County native Phillip Hughes. I would slot the Expos into drafting Thomas Diamond, as he doesn't quite have the price tag that high school pitchers do.

    With three (Rogers, Elbert, Hurley) good high school pitchers available, expect the Royals to draft another high school pitcher in 2004, this time not as good as Mr. Greinke. Elbert lives in Missouri, so he's got my guess, though Rogers seems to be the consensus best player on the board selection. Arizona is said to what nothing to do with a high schooler, instead desiring a college pitcher, leaving them Orenduff, Purcey, or Zach Jackson to decide between. They should go with Orenduff, one of the worst college pitchers to be chosen in the first.

    Toronto is the first of the very sabermetric teams to pick, and I don't doubt they'll pick one of the two Big 12 southpaws, either Purcey or Jackson. At this point I'll say Jackson, though that could change in a day. While much has been said in the Logan White v. Paul DePodesta debate, I say the former wins, and the Dodgers land the pick of the day, Maine right-hander Mark Rogers. Expect the White Sox to take another high school pitcher, and I'll say it will be Jacksonville pitcher Eric Hurley. The Cardinals will bite on raw but talented college slugger Josh Fields, leaving the Twins to finally decide their course of action.

    I don't doubt the Twins will choose hometown pitcher Glen Perkins, but he's more likely to go at 22 than 20. At 20, they'll go high schooler, either Jay Rainville or Billy Butler, and I'm guessing it's the latter. The Phillies should the New Englander Rainville at 21, and after Perkins goes at 22, the Yankees will pick Ivy Leaguer B.J. Syzmanski in the 23rd slot. The A's draft will surely start with Danny Putnam at #24, and the Twins third selection should be Texas closer Huston Street, who can fly through the system and come cheap.

    I like the A's taking Weaver's teammate Jason Vargas with the next pick, and the World Champions choosing hometown southpaw Gio Gonzalez with the twenty-seventh pick. Paul DePodesta will win battle #2, and the Dodgers will surprise all by taking Cal State Fullerton catcher Kurt Suzuki at twenty-eight. Kansas City and Texas will finish the first round, and once again, I have to agree with my Baseball America boys here, as I predict Mike Ferris and Greg Golson to finish off the first round.

    So yes, I really do have David Purcey dropping out of the first round. I didn't realize it until I typed this all up, but I'm going to stick with it at this point. Dropping like hot cakes, the Royals will select him at 31, leaving J.P. Riccardi to choose East Coast college pitcher Chris Lambert with his second choice.

    That's all I got, except predicting that Jeff Larish and Dustin Pedroia will get chosen in the supplemental round. Tune in tomorrow, and I'll be back with a report later in the week. Take care....

    WTNYJune 03, 2004
    The Story of Three Pitchers
    By Bryan Smith

    Today, as my title implies, I want to talk about three different pitchers. The first was my top ranked pitcher in my preseason prospect ranking, the second was who should have been my top ranked my top pitcher, and the third is my top sleeper prospect before the season. All three are having very different seasons, but have had a nice last couple of days.

    In my prospect ranking before the season, I wrote this about my #3 overall prospect:


    While Miller ended the season wonderfully in AA, Jackson did fantastic in the Major Leagues. Jackson reminds me of Giant Jerome Williams, and it looks like the two will duke it out for years to come. Both have mid-90s fastballs and very good curveballs, are basically the same size, and are said to have very fluid motions. If you live in Los Angeles and aren’t excited, change.
    *- After a spectacular September, Jackson might earn a spot with the Dodgers. If not, he’ll go to AAA and be up by midseason. Dodger Stadium plus Jackson spells out Rookie of the Year.

    But, Jackson did not earn that spot with the Dodgers, thanks in large part to his 9.28 ERA in 21.1 Spring innings. Los Angeles sent their top prospect to AAA Las Vegas, historically one of the most drastic offensive stadiums in the minors. Jackson has struggled mightily in Sin City, throwing 52.2 innings of 5.13 ERA ball, with a K/BB of only 38/24. Jackson's record was 5-2 though, likely confusing someone he was worthy of a call-up.

    Actually, Jackson was recalled because the Dodger rotation had few other options. Hideo Nomo is hurt in many different ways, and Wilson Alvarez requested a move to the bullpen. Jose Lima is well, Jose Lima, and Paul DePodesta is smart enough to know not to bank every fifth day on his right arm. So, with a homestand against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Dodgers found it harmless enough to give Jackson a start.

    Let's tune into the ESPN box score play-by-play for Jackson's first Major League experience of the 2004 season, Mr. Scott Podsednik:

    Edwin Jackson pitches to Scott Podsednik
    Pitch 1: ball 1
    Pitch 2: strike 1 (looking)
    Pitch 3: ball 2
    Pitch 4: strike 2 (foul)
    Pitch 5: ball 3
    Pitch 6: foul
    Pitch 7: in play
    S Podsednik homered to right.

    Well, I can almost guarantee that someone was being cursed at in the luxury suites of Dodger Stadium, blamed for that stupid decision to call up the kid. Then, Jackson gives up a single to Craig Counsell of all people! But, Edwin calms down, and allows only one hit and three walks in the next five innings, all scoreless frames. And with the Dodgers scoring five runs, you can bet on the L.A. bullpen giving Mr. Jackson his first 2004 victory.

    You can bet that things weren't so lucky for player #2. Rather than pitching for a first place team on the Pacific, our second hurler was dealing for a last place team in Missouri. I've written about Zack Greinke, and particularly his connections with Bret Saberhagen, many times before here, so I'll try and be brief. By some freak error, I ranked Greinke all the way down at #9 before the season, and for consistency's sake, here's what I wrote:


    In his first full year against professional hitting, Zack Greinke has made a name for himself. The Royal right-hander absolutely dominated Carolina League opponents, following a winter spent in the Puerto Rican League. Greinke dropped on my list due to a weak K/9 rate, but he balances that with great control. He understands changing speeds better than any other prospect, and mixes in an above-average curve. With three Major League pitches, Kansas City fans are praying for the second coming of Saberhagen.
    *- Upon promotion to AA, Greinke was hardly dominating. He'll head back to Wichita at year's beginning, but don't bet against him arriving about the same time that Jimmy Gobble did last year.

    My guess of Gobble's arrival date, August 3, was a little off, as the Royals have turned to Greinke now. In his first, well publicized start, Baird and Pena put him against the harmless Oakland A's in the spacious Coliseum. Greinke went five innings, allowing five hits, a walk, and two runs, both of which were the result of a Erubiel Durazo home run. As Rob Neyer predicted, the Royals bullpen threw away a would-be-win, and the Royals lost 5-4 in the eleventh.

    For his second trial, the situation was a little more difficult for the young right-hander. Greinke's first start at home, against the rival Minnesota Twins, was on a Friday in front of more than 30,000 people at Kauffman Stadium. The pressure was on, as the Twins were throwing veteran Brad Radke on the mound. Greinke responded with a great start, allowing only one run in seven innings, which took him only 100 pitches. The run, a Michael Cuddyer home run in the fifth, would tie the game at 1-1, the same score when Greinke left after seven innings. Kansas City would scrap a run across in the ninth, giving former starter Jeremy Affeldt, and not the deserving Greinke, the win.

    Now tune to yesterday, as Greinke would make his debut against the lowly Detroit Tigers. Zack pitched fantastic, allowing only two runs (a 2-run blast by Brandon Inge in the second) on six hits and two walks in seven innings. He was Greg Maddux-like efficient again, throwing only 99 pitches during the start. Unfortunately for Greinke, he was pinned against Tiger right-hander Jason Johnson, who held the Royals scoreless. So, after three starts, Greinke is yet to give up three runs in a game, and yet to notch his first Major League victory. It's a little early for Greinke to be appearing on the Baseball Prospectus unluckiest pitchers list, but he's got my vote.

    And finally, we move to player #3, the Rockies southpaw Jeff Francis. Thus far, I'm most happy with my placement of him on my top 50 list, as I didn't see him that high anywhere else before the year. Pardon me for tooting my own horn, but here's what I wrote in February:


    Here’s my guarantee: you won’t find another prospect ranking in the world that has Jeff Francis in the top fifty but right here. The reason behind that is an e-mail that I saved thanks to Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball America Prospect Report. In Francis’ last fifteen starts, he went 10-1, 1.06, showing the type of prospect he really is. Francis has a big body and is very durable, but needs to refine his pitches before blasting off.
    *- I’m very high on Francis, and I expect the Canadian to dominate AA in 2004. With Tsao and Francis atop their rotation, the Rockies should boost that road record in coming years.

    And domination it has been. On Tuesday, Francis struck out fourteen batters in eight innings, and his one run allowed dropped the ERA to 2.12 for the season. As Kevin Goldstein of the BAPR wrote, Francis now leads the Texas League in innings pitched, wins, ERA, and strikeouts. A pitching triple crown? Maybe I should have put him in my top 25!

    Anyways, that's what I have to offer today. While I can't give direct links (computer issues), check out Batters Box and Baseball Prospectus for some cool draft coverage in the last couple days. And watch the Hardball Times, as Craig Burley keeps rolling out his college statistics mat, my vote for discovery of the year by an on-line sabermatrician, although no such award exists. If the Padres pick Stephen Drew first overall, expect the Tigers to select Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann to cover the New York tabloids, Homer Bailey get Tampa's selection, and Phillip Humber to drop to the Brewers. More on the draft next week, and keep watching for what I've now dubbed as the "inevitable B.J. Upton June call-up."

    WTNYJune 01, 2004
    One More Day
    By Bryan Smith

    That's how long you'll have to wait for your regularly scheduled Wait 'Til Next Year broadcast. I witnessed the Cubs beat the Astros today, and Greg Maddux start of old left me with the highest Cubs feeling I've had in weeks. Well, maybe that other announcement had something to do with it too.

    Thanks for all the response on my draft piece over at the Hardball Times, I really appreciate any thoughts or criticism. This week I should also have a piece up there on the 1998 draft, looking at the success rate of players and such.

    While I won't be making an extended entry until tomorrow, here are a few draft thoughts:

    - I really hope the Padres aren't considering anyone but Jered Weaver. Sure, he got racked by Miami this week, but how many teams have lit up Jeff Niemann or Justin Verlander?

    - That being said, I don't understand spending a top five pick on either of those two players. The Tigers would be smart to choose Stephen Drew, letting the 6-9 Niemann fill the tabloid pages of New York magazines for a couple of days.

    - Peter Gammons likes Jeremy Sowers more than anyone else in the draft this year, and I can't really agree with him. Sowers is the left-handed version of Jeremy Guthrie, currently taking that Eastern League course over again.

    - Want a late first round steal? Why not gamble on Jeff Larish, and bet money that his ugly first half is not indicative of the bat he really has. He's been coming on strong of late, and I think him and Dustin Pedroia will make good picks in the 25-35 slots.

    That's all for now...

    WTNYMay 24, 2004
    Back Where I Belong
    By Bryan Smith

    The more things change, the more they stay the same. Last time I was at Wrigley Field, the team had a different catcher, a different first basemen, second basemen, shortstop, centerfielder, right fielder, and set-up man than they did last night. But, Wrigley is still the same, home to where my love for baseball begun, and always the best baseball park on earth.

    Electric. That was my one word answer to what Wrigley Field was like last season, and that has remained over the year. Clement was in a first inning jam yesterday, and with a full count and two outs, the stadium was rocking like it was a playoff game. Sure, there are still the oblivious fans that are more worried about the fights in the mezzanine or where the nearest beer vendor is, but in crunch time there isn’t a place more fun on Earth.

    Last night was a really weird day for a game, as the weather was changing all game. I drove into the city with promise of rain all around me, as clouds covered the Chicago skyline. Then as we entered Wrigleyville, the heavens cleared and the sun came out for the first time all day. But alas, it did pour about an hour before game time, despite the sun alongside it. At 7:05 the rain was long gone, but clouds darkened the place so much the lights had to be turned on. We heard there were tornado warnings at one point, and the clouds then started to turn red. But, I managed to stay dry all game, as thunderstorms managed to hit just the lake, and avoid us avid baseball fans.

    I won’t go too much into the game, All-Baseball does have this one blog completely entitled to that. But, I’ll give a bit of an overview. I don’t call myself a sabermatrician by any means, I’m way too unattached for statistics for that. Sunday’s game will show why stats don’t always tell the truest tale, and while we should all remember that it’s the actual game we love, not the numbers that complement it.

    People will open their newspapers today, and read Matt Clement’s line: 6 IP, 3H, 3 ER, 3BB/6K, and think he pitched well. But, I’ve seen most of Clement’s starts this year, and this was one of his worse games. The Cards could not get a beat on him, but he was not the pitcher that almost threw a no-hitter only weeks before. I’ll go as far to say that Matt Morris, the man he beat, pitched better than him. Morris struggled in the first inning, but after that was golden, simply subject to a bad offense.

    Despite all the craziness in Cubdom, I went to bed last night a happy Cubs fan. Sure, Kerry suffered a setback, Sosa sneezed, and Ricky Nolasco can’t handle AAA. But heck, Moises and Aramis are hotter than a sauna, countdown to Prior is nearing, and we’re a game ahead of the Astros. But please, will someone explain to me who these Reds guys are? I mean seriously, they have a starter’s ERA nearing 5.00 (4.85)!

    But I digress. This site is quickly becoming the home for young players and the minor leagues, so I’ll stick on that topic.

    With that being said, there is no other way to start this entry than by saying the future is now in Kansas City. Having little other options, Allain Baird and Tony Pena decided it was time to bring up the phenom formerly known as Zack Greinke. In my Royals preview at THT, I attempted to draw comparisons on Bret Saberhagen and Greinke, and wrote this on Saberhagen:


    In the June 1982 amateur draft, the Royals selected a high school pitcher named Bret Saberhagen in the nineteenth round. They sent the right-hander to their high-A affiliate in the Florida State League to start the 1983 season, and after sixteen starts there, he finished with eleven AA Southern League starts. He was 19 in 1983, and then at 20, broke in as a reliever with the Royals, getting moved into the rotation late in the 1984 season. By 1985, he was the ace.

    It’s interesting that this time around, Kansas City did not take the relief route. Instead, Greinke was sent to Omaha, where he started six games before his call up. Greinke had a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 innings, which included 25 hits, six walks, 23 strikeouts and two home runs allowed. I didn’t see Greinke’s start, I really have to get MLB TV, but I heard he pitched in the low-90s with pretty good control.

    Note that Saberhagen’s 1984 season was not exactly as I described it at THT. He made 38 appearances that year, 18 of them he had started. While I assumed this meant he was broke in as a reliever, Saberhagen’s role had been undefined all year long. His first start came on April 19, and he started seven in a row between April 28 and June 4. He was used sparingly until September, when his last three appearances were all starts, including a complete game shutout of the Angels. Saberhagen’s ERA was 3.48 that year, similar to what I think Greinke might do in about 20 starts this year. While I didn’t buy into this comparison much last year, the two are actually strikingly similar, and Kansas City fans should begin praying Greinke doesn’t fall victim to the same injury that Bret did.

    Two other ‘prospects’ were recalled to the majors this week: Justin Morneau for the Twins and Anastacio Martinez of the Red Sox. Both had been playing great at AAA, with Morneau’s SLG and Martinez’s K/9 both alarmingly high. Morneau will get consistent playing time due to the rash of injuries on the Twins front, while Martinez will only be used in low leverage situations. Justin could be this year’s Miguel Cabrera, but that’s a topic we’ll have to explore down the road.

    Speaking of the Red Sox, I noticed on the transaction page that they re-signed David Ortiz to a two-year extension, as Theo moves quickly and quietly to decide his plan for this coming off season. I’ve never been quiet about my guess, which is that Nomar returns to New England, while Pedro is left to find a home elsewhere. The team will opt not to bring Bill Mueller back, instead choosing the aging catcher Jason Varitek. That leaves the 2005 lineup as pretty similar:

    C- Jason Varitek
    1B- Kevin Millar
    2B- Mark Bellhorn???
    SS- Nomar Garciaparra
    3B- Kevin Youkilis
    LF- Manny Ramirez
    CF- Johnny Damon
    RF- Trot Nixon
    DH- David Ortiz

    But, Theo will be left to acquire a couple of starters, as I see only Schilling, Wakefield, and Bronson Arroyo as possible members of the rotation. Speaking of acquisitions, it was announced this week that Andrew Brown was the second half of the pot that Mark Shapiro landed for Milton Bradley in Spring Training. I might be bias (considering I met Shapiro only months ago), but this means that Cleveland beat out Paul DePodesta further in what is his first major deal as a General Manager.

    First, there is Franklin Gutierrez, the main haul. He’s been everything that was promised at AA, hitting .320/.382/.458 in 153 AB, albeit a little low in homers with two. Brown did well in the Southern League, striking out a league high 58 batters in only 40.1 innings. This, mixed with a WHIP under 1.25, would make Brown a very good prospect. But, he’s allowed five home runs already, likely the reason to blame for his 4.02 ERA. There is obviously some work to do here, but Brown has the makings of a very special pitcher.

    OK, here’s a quick run-down on the minor leagues:

    - Right now, B.J. Upton is the top prospect in baseball. Upon promotion to AAA, Upton continues hitting, slugging four homers in his first 39 at-bats. He’s also stolen two bases in his first ten games, so it appears the Durham manager is more apt to send him than his Montgomery coach was. B.J. is special, and will be up full-time by July.
    - I spent some time today thinking of a good comparison for David Wright. There have been only 29 seasons with a third basemen stealing 30 or more bases, and few mix that with power and patience. A more patient Howard Johnson or a more powerful Paul Moliter at this point, and Wright has become my second favorite prospect in baseball, behind Jeff Francis, who is still going strong thank you very much.
    - In third base news, note that Andy Marte is coming on strong, raising his average to above .260 in the last week. I predicted Marte to be this year’s Miguel Cabrera, so I guess there is still a month (Cabrera debuted on 6/20) for the Braves to be convinced to call up Andy. Also, former top pick Jeff Baker of the Rockies is destroying the California League.
    - Ryan Howard is leading the Eastern League in home runs, and is very attractive trade bait if you ask me. Fellow first base prospect Prince Fielder has been terrible his last ten games, which has led to his average dipping below .270. Yikes.
    - Brad Thompson finally allowed a run, some time around when Chuck Tiffany threw a perfect game.
    - And finally, Cole Hamels and Lastings Milledge each debuted this last week, so keep your eyes and ears open for those two.

    Keep your eye on Baseball America, as they have been increasing draft coverage of late. Would anyone here really choose Niemann over Weaver or Drew at this point? Hell, I’d take Townsend over Niemann if given the choice. But I guess that’s the sabermatrician side of me.

    WTNYMay 17, 2004
    When Bad Teams Make Me Think
    By Bryan Smith

    I’m not a big fan of tooting my own horn, but I’ll make one exception, and ask any of you that haven’t to read my piece on the Southern League at the Hardball Times. It’s always been hard for me to judge the number of fans that truly love the minor leagues, but I see it as the Internet’s most uncovered baseball topic, and I’ve set out to change that. Whether I have a fan base or not remains to be seen...

    As someone noted in the comments section last week, Dustan McGowan has joined the list of players that are out for the season. McGowan’s arm injury should take him out until mid-July, but as Will Carroll points out, it’s really only the second injury the Riccardi regime has faced. This hurts the 2005 Blue Jays that were leaning on McGowan, but he could be ready as early as 2006.

    In other minor league news, Brad Thompson extended his scoreless streak to over forty innings with six scoreless innings on Friday. Retiring one out his next time on the mound will give him the Southern League record, and at this point, I think you can bank on that. Whether the Cardinals are simply waiting for him to give up a run to get a promotion, or don’t think he’s ready, Thompson should be in Memphis later this month.

    Also, while I think there are holes in the article, Jim Callis has a nice breakdown of polish vs. stuff over at Baseball America. They make out Jered Weaver to have no stuff, and from what I hear from Rich Lederer, he seems a little underhyped. Players like Jeremy Sowers deserve that title more than someone like Weaver, especially with those strikeout numbers. We’ll see how Tim Stauffer’s career turns out, but his first two months have been better than those of Kyle Sleeth. And believe me, Weaver’s stuff isn’t as far behind Verlander’s as Stauffer’s is to Sleeth’s.

    While I hate to sound repetitive with what I wrote in THT Live, watching Ben Sheets yesterday just reminded me while I follow this game so closely. Sheets was absolutely perfect, striking out the final six hitters, all of whom were facing him from the left side. The ump was being very generous with the outside corner, almost causing Johnny Estrada to be ejected two pitches before Sheets struck him out to end the game.

    Before this year, the Sheets vs. Zito debate has been non-existant. Sheets career ERA+ of 96 has been unexceptional, although his peripherals showed great improvement in the last year. This season Sheets has shown why he was once a first round pick. How? Well, his pinpoint control has further improved, all the way to only walking nine batters in his first fifty-nine innings. In that time, Sheets has also allowed only forty-six hits, but has struck out 66 batters.

    But, Sheets is just one of many Brewers that have pushed the club’s record over .500. I predicted the Brewers to finish fourth in the NL Central before the season, and despite the Reds current push, I stand by my prediction. The combination of Ned Yost and Mike Maddux seems great to me, and the Brewers show more energy than most teams, and sometimes that can be enough to win 80 games.

    A bigger surprise than Sheets this season has been Lyle Overbay, the stud first basemen that has made Milwaukee fans forget about some guy named Sexson. Overbay’s line of .369/.414/.638 has led to of a Wilson/Overbay/Thome debate for the National League All-Star vote. Lyle’s 21 doubles and 38 RBI are enough to garner my vote, and while I don’t think he’ll keep this up, fifty doubles isn’t out of the question.

    In fact, only two first basemen in the last twenty-five years have had seasons with more than 50 doubles and less than twenty-five home runs, John Olerud and Mark Grace. The latter is fitting, as Overbay has garnered comparisons to Grace since his minor league days. Lyle is definitely playing over his head, but in the very least, he should allow the team an extra year to develop Prince Fielder.

    And it’s prospects that make up the future of this team. Sure, there have been problems, Rickie Weeks hasn’t shown a ton of power and J.J. Hardy has been lost for the season, but the future remains bright. Junior Spivey and Keith Ginter will allow Weeks all the time he needs, and even Bill Hall has become a serviceable shortstop.

    Another amazing Brewers factoid is the fact that through 37 games, Scott Podsednik has twenty stolen bases, against zero times being caught. He has an off chance at 90 steals, and looks to be Doug Melvin’s best minor addition of his career. His .356 on-base percentage could go up, but Podsednik has yet to turn on the jets.

    Whether is was Ben Sheets yesterday or just some weird intuition, I’m jumping on the Brewers bandwagon. No, not for this year, but rather for years down the road. This system is too good for the Brewers not to make an impact as early as 2006, and each year this team is learning more and more about their club. If you have a chance, I recommend watching Sheets pitch soon, and maybe his fastball/curveball combination will inspire you to think about Milwaukee as well.

    Going from one bad team to another, I couldn’t say anything shocked me more this weekend than discovering Jose Vidro had signed a four-year extension to stay with the Montreal Expos. This is following a three-year extension given to ace Livan Hernandez only weeks before. I’m not the first to imply this, but there is no question Montreal will not be the home of Les Expos next year. Oh, and if you get a chance, head over to Senators and Sabermetrics, a great new blog I’ve seen with a great twist. I’m telling you, find your niche and you’ll make it, what it is I haven’t quite figured out yet though...

    Moving back to the Expos, I think those two extensions ensure that Orlando Cabrera will be dealt midseason. I know the Cubs will be interested, maybe as early as July, but the Giants, Dodgers, and maybe even the Twins could all be on the phone with Minaya as well. Signing Jose Vidro probably cost them Dioner Navarro and another prospect, but they also signed one of the better second basemen from the last fifteen years. While he’s started out a bit slow, Vidro’s OPS has improved .063 this month.

    Well, that’s all for now. Last week I made a mid-week post on minor league injuries, and I think that’s a direction I’ll go in more and more. Anything you hear interesting on the draft or the minors drop into the comments, and heck, it might even spawn a post, even a Brewer could do that.

    WTNYMay 12, 2004
    Injuries
    By Bryan Smith

    I didn't write on it in my last post, but as you may have heard, Jeff Allison is on a leave of absence from the Florida Marlins. Mike Berardino reports that Allison has a dependency problem on a painkiller, and may be out for a year. Allison is the definition of a stud high schooler, and would have been a top five pick last year had it not been for big bonus demands. Allison was the Marlins top prospect, but now Josh Hamilton-like concerns surround him. Let's hope that Allison can get over his problem, and maybe one day live up to the expectations that he once garnered.

    Allison isn't the only big-name prospect that will be missing 2004, try J.J. Hardy. The Brewers top shortstop prospect has injured his shoulder, and season-ending surgery will cut his 2004 short. I've compared Hardy to Royce Clayton on this site before, so I don't see this as a monster-sized loss. Bill Hall is serviceable, and maybe the team will try Junior Spivey or Keith Ginter at short. Doug Melvin is just thanking his lucky stars that this wasn't Weeks or Fielder.

    Last, but surely not least, my favorite pitcher and fantasy ace Kerry Wood left yesterday's game with tightness. Watch TCR and WCW for more, but this worries me greatly. See ya Monday...

    WTNYMay 10, 2004
    AL ml Report (pt. 2)
    By Bryan Smith

    As a Cubs fan, things are on the up and up. Mark Prior has a date set, so the Sergio Mitre AAA countdown can officially begin. It’s not that I don’t like the guy, I just can’t help wondering what things would be like if #22 was on the mound every time he pitches.

    But luckily, everyone else in the rotation is pitching magnificently. And even with an ERA over 5.00, Greg Maddux has been very good lately. In fact, in his last four starts: 27IP 27H 22K 3BB 3.00ERA. That is exactly why the Cubs signed Maddux, but unfortunately, the offense has not been generous enough, and I worry about Greg’s chances at yet another 15-win season.

    A friend recently asked me if I thought Carlos Zambrano was better than Kerry Wood. I laughed at this notion immediately, but later noticed that Z is pitching fantastically this year. Save a bad performance at Arizona and Carlos has been untouchable, especially his last sixteen innings: five hits, three walks, seventeen strikeouts and ZERO runs. The Cubs have so many aces it's insane, and their ability to stay within three games of the Astros by the Pirates series (June 4-6) will have a huge bearing on this race. It’s great to see Derrek Lee doing well, isn’t it?

    Last week I started on an AL minor league report, but never finished it. I promised to get it up during the week, but other obligations made that impossible. So today I’ll finish it, and I hope that every week I’ll tackle half of the league, completing a full cycle every month. Enjoy...

    Kansas City

    Before the 2003 season, Royals fans would have predicted a 2004 with Alexis Gomez in right field and Mike Tonis behind the plate. Plans have drastically changed in Kansas City, and now those two are seeing their chances of reaching Kauffman Stadium decrease. Gomez is hitting a paltry .161/.223/.276 at AAA, while Tonis is hitting .177/.230/.253 at AA. Last season’s first-round choice, Chris Lubanski, is hitting .202/.311/.303 in the Midwest League, rounding out the bad hitters in the system.

    But the worst of all comes on the mound, where former first-rounder Colt Griffin looks like a complete bust. The first high schooler to hit triple digits on a radar gun, Griffin is 1-2 in the Carolina League, with an 8.78ERA, thirty hits and 21 walks in only 27.2 innings. It’s unknown Dusty Hughes that is capturing headlines by allowing only one run in his first thirty-two innings, good for a 0.28ERA in the Midwest League.

    And yes, there are more good things. Mitch Maier, a supplemental pick last June, is hitting .306/.364/.490 while moving from behind the plate to the hot corner in low-A. David Murphy, a second basemen in the Carolina League, is hitting .337/385/.471 for Wilmington. Finally, outfielder Byron Gettis has been hot the last two weeks, raising his overall AAA line to .287/.427/.483, and will make a case to up-end the ridiculously hot Ken Harvey at some point.

    Zack Greinke watch: 0-1 3.38 17/18.2 15/4
    Calvin Pickering watch: .299/.441/.770

    Minnesota

    While things are once again looking good at the Major League level, the Twins have reinforcements if needed in the minor leagues. Aaron Gleeman would love for Jason Bartlett to replace one of the Twins terrible middle infielders, as Bartlett is hitting .339/.412/.504 at Rochester. Top unhurt prospect Justin Morneau is destroying the International League, hitting .386/.433/.711, making every Twin fan on Earth wondering why the Hell he’s not in the Major Leagues yet. Jesse Crain, the final piece of the AAA puzzle, is doing OK, allowing seventeen hits in 15.2 innings, but also striking out twenty in that time. We’ll see him once Joe Nathan cools off a bit.

    Jason Kubel, an unheard prospect with a career .310 average, is doing magnificent in the Eastern League, hitting .388/.453/.660, mainly thanks to double-digit doubles. There is no spot on the Twins roster for Kubel, making me think the Twins could be like the Braves of the 1990s, but trading outfielders rather than pitchers. J.D. Durbin is the other New Britainer looking great, with a 2.08ERA through 34.2 innings.

    In the Florida State League, the Fort Myers Miracle have managed a winning record (15-14), despite only THREE home runs. It’s been all pitching, with acquired hurlers Francisco Liriano (A.J. Pierzynski) and Matt Yeatman (Matt Kinney) leading the way.

    Things look the most bleak at low-A, where prospects Denard Span, Matt Moses, and Evan Meek are all struggling terribly. Both former first-rounders, Span (.228/.333/.267) and Moses (.239/.341/.451) can’t make consistent contact. Moses is a little more intriguing thanks to the ISO over .200, but time will tell with him. Meek has been terrible on the mound, walking fifteen men while striking out only three in just over five innings. Yikes.

    Anaheim

    A hoard of hitting prospects shot the Angels up organizational rankings in the past year, and that group should start to arrive in the O.C. in the next few years. In fact, Darin Erstad’s injury has opened the path for Casey Kotchman, who was hitting .368/.438/.544 in the Texas League. Kotchman has had injury issues his entire career, but if he stays healthy, Erstad might be moving back to the outfield upon his return. The team also has potential replacements for Ben Molina, Adam Kennedy and Troy Glaus in Jeff Mathis (.312/.350/.462), Alberto Callaspo (.312/.353/.368) and Dallas McPherson (.300/.376/.473).

    After that, things haven’t been great in the Anaheim system. Top pitching prospect Ervin Santana has yet to take the mound, while Bobby Jenks has an ERA over 8 in his first twelve innings. Intriguing right-hander Rafael Rodriguez has gotten off to an equally bad start in the Midwest League, allowing sixteen hits and ten walks in his first thirteen innings. Only one-time Padre prospect Eric Cyr has been good on the mound, going 4-0, 1.70ERA in the Texas League.

    There are a few more lower-level hitting prospects, but they have mixed results so far. The best has been from California League shortstop Erick Aybar, who is hitting .364/.430/.503 with eleven stolen bases thus far. Last year’s first rounder, Brandon Wood has struggled, hitting .238 in his first 100 or so at-bats. His double-play partner, Howie Kendrick, is hitting .309, but bad plate discipline has his on-base percentage at only .327.

    Oakland

    Things are not going well for what will forever be labeled as the Moneyball draft. Two of the more talked about players in the book, Nick Swisher and Jeremy Brown are struggling terribly after their first month. Swisher has been unspectacular in the Pacific Coast League, hitting .228/.374/.443 so far. Swisher is proving to be a very hot and cold hitter, and I am beginning to think the team has rushed it with him. Jeremy Brown, the catcher that doesn’t wear jeans, has been the worst of the group hitting .167/.257/.267 at AA. Brown should never have been in the Texas League last year, first establishing success in one of the A’s A-ball factions.

    Others from the Moneyball draft are struggling as well. Steve Stanley, an outfielder from Notre Dame, is hitting .237/.345/.289 alongside Swisher at AAA. At AA, both Mark Kiger (.250/.363/.313) and John McCurdy (.247/.286/.424) are hitting below expectations, while Ben Fritz (5.29 36/32.1 23/17) has been awful.

    Only Joe Blanton and Mark Teahen are making Billy Beane look respectable, saving millions of readers from lighting Micheal Lewis’ book on fire. Blanton has a 2.39ERA so far at AAA, and it won’t be long before he and Rich Harden switch places, or Harden moves to the set-up role in the bullpen a la Rafael Soriano. Teahen has been the Texas League’s best third basemen, hitting .347/.437/.535 through the first month.

    But yes, I will talk about non-Moneyball draft players as well. Dan Johnson (.283/.382/.566) should be taking the Oakland first base job before too long, and Mark Ellis’ injury has opened the other right-side slot for former Cub Adam Morissey (.318/.395/.500). Moving to high-A, a few first-round picks from last year have not been great for Mr. Beane thus far. Houston right-hander Brad Sullivan has been awful, boasting a 13/16 K/BB with an ERA over 5.00 in the California League. Highly touted players Marcus McBeth (.177/.235/.242) and Omar Quintanilla (.259/.315/.431) are struggling as well.

    Finally, there are the low-A players that you’ve never heard of. David Castillo hit .398/.475/.686 at Oral Roberts University in his final year, and now is hitting .323/.467/.531 behind the plate at low-A this year. The catch? He’s 23. Behind Teahen and Eric Chavez on the Oakland 3B chart is Eric Snyder, currently hitting .296/.415/.408 for the Kane County Cougars. Finally, the organization’s second-best pitcher has been Brad Knox, a former Central Arizona College right-hander with 52 strikeouts in only 37.1 innings.

    Seattle

    Honestly, when going through the different teams for the Mariners, I found very few players to actually report things on. This surprised me as I had believed the Mariners to have a good system, but this practice has made me believe they lack any depth in the system.

    Three of the team’s better prospects are currently at AAA. Jose Lopez, still young at shortstop and looking to take the job next year, is hitting .293/.340/.535 at his first go-around the PCL. Travis Blackley is not faring so well, with an ERA at 4.71 and having allowed 38 hits in 28.2 innings with only sixteen strikeouts. Even top prospect Clint Nageotte isn’t doing too well, his ERA is 4.15, and his WHIP is nearing the dangerous 1.40 range.

    At AA, only Shin-Soo Choo (.286/.369/.551) was worthy of note. Choo will have a chance at the centerfield job next year, possibly getting Randy Winn traded this coming offseason. In the California League, 18-year-old Felix Hernandez is grabbing all the headlines. Hernandez has an ERA of 2.56 and 41 strikeouts in his first 31.2 innings, all against 25 hits and nine walks. Fellow Inland Empirer Bobby Livingston has been better, allowing only 25 hits in his first 41.1 innings, with an ERA of 1.31. In the Midwest League, only first-round pick Adam Jones (.238/.319/.295) bad season is worthy of note.

    Texas

    Rather than focus on the usual bunch, I’m going to go straight to A-ball, and detail some players that few have heard of so far. Vince Sinisi would have been a top-15 pick from Rice last season, right in Michael Aubrey’s range, if not for his signing demands. The Rangers had to bite, and Sinisi is repaying, hitting .317/.383/.483 thus far. Anthony Webster, a centerfielder in last year’s Carl Everett deal, is also doing well at Stockton, hitting .282/.373/.427. Stanford right-hander John Hudgins, who didn’t do well with the Cardinal until his Senior year, is continuing his success, going 1-0, 2.76ERA, with 25H in 29.1IP against 33 strikeouts and nine walks.

    At low-A Clinton, there are more never-before-heard names. The one big name, last year’s first-rounder, John Danks is trying to become this year’s Scott Kazmir. Danks is doing a good job, having struck out 32 in his first 21.1 pro innings, during which his ERA is only 2.11. Another pitcher, Matt Lorenzo, is doing well (1.93ERA, 14H/28IP, 42K/5BB), justifying his fifth-round selection. And late-round pick Ian Kinsler has been great, hitting 20 doubles in his first 110AB.

    That’s all for now...

    WTNYMay 04, 2004
    AL mL Report (Pt. 1)
    By Bryan Smith

    As promised, this is the second edition of Wait ‘Til Next Year weekly, and just a day late at that. Today, largely due to the desire of my readers for minor league content, I will give a report on how American League prospects are currently faring. Let me say that over the last year I have become a huge prospect nut, and find it to be the most uncovered area of the ‘blogworld’. Hopefully places like this can turn into discussion forums for prospectdom, if such a place exists.

    Before starting on the team-by-team detail, I want to give my bit about my Major League team, the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, the cross-town White Sox are riding a hot streak that has placed the Cubs as Chicago’s number two team, but that shouldn’t last for long. Houston, despite Roger Clemens, is just not taking advantage of injuries to Mark Prior and Mark Remlinger, two huge pieces of this team. Prior will stabilize this rotation like no one else can, and Remlinger, even with his BB/9 that’s too high, will likely offer more control than Kent Mercker.

    In last week’s article, a reader asked my opinion on the Felix Sanchez for Jon Connolly trade. Ruz touched on this a little at Transaction Guy, calling Connally a “genuine prospect.” In my opinion, that’s a little over-the-top, as Connolly never seems to shock scouts enough to be on prospect lists. He was the minor league ERA leader last year at 1.41, but didn’t get any press, missing out on the Tigers Baseball America Top Ten. Pat Caputo, the man that compiled the Tigers’ prospect rankings, reasoned that with this bit:


    Connolly doesn't throw hard nor is athletic. He has excellent command and is able to dominate with it at lower levels. At higher levels, the hitters are more patient will wait him out. Then we'll see if he has enough "stuff.'' He could be another Andy Van Hekken.

    The throwing hard is irrelevant, although I do worry what higher levels could do to Connolly. This trade is a Moneyball v. Scouting deal, with the Cubs getting the former. Sanchez is a hard-throwing southpaw that just doesn’t have the name to crack the Chicago roster, and probably never will. Left-handed relievers are fairly easy to come by, so this deal really has no risk. But should Connolly, or the player to be named, turn out, this was a fantastic move. Connolly’s system debut went beautifully, as he went five innings, allowed two hits and no walks, all while striking out eight. I’ll try to chart his progress, along with the red-hot Rommie Lewis (acquired in the Juan Cruz trade...hitting .354/.416/.646 in 21 AA G) in the coming weeks.

    Let’s move now to the promised topic discussion, my minor league report. Let me start out by saying that all numbers I use come from Baseball America on Saturday. Overall numbers have changed a bit in three days, but I hope everyone can bear that ‘problem’. Enjoy...

    Baltimore

    Top to bottom, the Baltimore organization is suffering from one huge problem: control. I touted this as the most changed organization before the year started, pointing to many trades the two-headed GMs had made to acquire minor league pitching. But, TINSTAPP has applied the first month, as very few of their prospects have been able to consistently throw the ball over the plate. In fact, John Maine has been the best player, allowing only seven walks in 21 innings (and 26K and 13H) at AA.

    Adam Loewen, Baseball America’s top Oriole prospect, has walked fifteen in 20 innings. Rommie Lewis has walked 13 in 18.1 innings. Don Levinski, in the Jeff Conine deal, has walked fourteen in 17.1 innings, against only nine strikeouts. The other part of the Conine trade, Denny Bautista, has walked twelve in 18.1 innings. The worst has been Ryan Hannaman, the southpaw acquired for Sidney Ponson, who has walked 14 in only 11.2 innings. This has worked out for an 8.49ERA, and while it’s early in the year to stick a fork in him, he’s setting his own table at this point.

    Moving to the hitting side of things, things aren’t so bright there. Last year’s first-round pick, Nick Markakis, a pick I wasn’t too fond of, is hitting .241/.302/.310 at low-A. Maybe they should move him back to the mound, eh? A reader last week asked me in the comments section to mention Mike Fontenot, a second basemen that might pressure Hairston or Roberts. I don’t think we are looking at the same numbers, as Fontenot has simply been an empty batting average, hitting .297/.320/.352 in 91AB. No, I think Brian Roberts should be feeling pretty safe right now. Finally, Tripper Johnson has been the best hitter, as the third basemen is hitting .250/.353/.536 at high-A. With Melvin Mora currently making an error-a-day at the position, the Orioles will really be pushing for his arrival.

    Boston

    Theo Epstein has a lot of decisions to make this offseason on which of his many free agents to re-sign. The team was likely hoping that Kelly Shoppach and Kevin Youkilis would step up and make the Jason Varitek and Bill Mueller decisions easy. But neither has really done so. Shoppach started the year a little late, and still is hitting just .224/.286/.397, and the Greek God of Walks has an unspectacular line of .291/.380/.443. Both of these players must start hitting the ball harder, or Theo will have no dough for Pedro (rhyming not intended).

    If Pedro leaves, the Red Sox will have an open rotation slot though, right? While the team would be likely to fill that hole through a signing, I don’t think Theo would mind having a prospect change his mind. Charlie Zink, Baseball Prospectus’ 50th prospect, is knuckleballing well, with a 2.86ERA in 22 innings at AA. Abe Alvarez, an early round choice last year, has an ERA of 4.26, with some decent peripherals. I like Alvarez, a southpaw from Long Beach State, and think he might turn out to be the best of last year’s draft bunch.

    While that might be so, Matt Murton will give Alvarez a run for his money. Murton is dominating high-A, to the tune of .311/.381/.608, including six home runs. Murton plays the corner outfield slot, and should finish the year in AA. If he continues onward with his torrid pace, a 2006 arrival is probable. Hanley Ramirez, who I balked at for inclusion on my prospect list, is struggling horribly, hitting only .278/.337/.380. But who knows, maybe some GM will help make Theo’s decisions easier this winter if Epstein relinquishes Hanley.

    New York

    Things are bad in the New York system, leaving the Yankees with very few players to trade this All-Star Break. Robinson Cano was almost in the A-Rod trade, but instead is continuing his annual ritual of starting off the year red-hot, Sean Hillenbrand-like, hitting .338/.385/.606 in AA. Dioner Navarro, the stud catching prospect that got some pub last year, was hitting .281/.379/.386 Saturday, not displaying the power numbers that Omar Minaya was hoping for (see Jose Vidro trade, 7/31/04).

    There isn’t a lot of pitching in this system, but it’s all in AA. Sean Henn has a 2.78ERA and has struck out 21 in 22.2 innings, and Chien-Ming Wang has a 1.53ERA there. After reading Alex Graman’s name on a Yankee roster, I’m thinking anything’s possible.

    While Baseball America did a feature story on the Yanks’ minor league futility, there is signs of hitting at the lower levels. Outfield prospect Bronson Sardinha is hitting .349/.433/.442 in the Florida State League, attempting desperately to become this year’s Jeremy Reed. Moving to the Midwest League, centerfielder Melky Cabrera (.318/.347/.420) and third basemen Eric Duncan (.291/.384/.465) are exciting Yankee brass. Maybe so much that they’ll find themselves being mentioned by the Transaction Guy this year.

    Tampa Bay

    Everyone expected the two big names to produce this year, but no one saw it coming from a host of unknowns. Yes, B.J. Upton is living up to his billing, hitting .323/.405/.492 at AA. Delmon Young on the other hand, has left a little to be desired. He has walked just twice in 22G, and also hit just .267, good for a .287 average. His power is just .411, so numbers are down across the board. The third prospect, Joey Gathright, is doing well, hitting .360/.467/.480 at AA. At this pace, maybe he’ll de-throne Rocco Baldelli, or at least move him to right.

    And now for the unknowns. Few pitching prospects are hotter than Chris Seddon, a southpaw that’s simply dominating the California League. Chris has a 0.82ERA, and has allowed just fourteen hits and three walks in 22 innings, all against twenty-two strikeouts. Battling Seddon for pitcher of the month is reliever Chad Orvella, who has the minor’s most disgusting line in the Sally League: 17.2IP, 2ER, 5H, 2BB, 27K. Wow. Stealing Delmon’s hitting line has been third basemen Vince Harrison, currently hitting .349/.414/.619 for Bakersfield.

    Toronto

    Pardon Blue Jays fans for having high hopes prior to this season, but we all felt it was justified. The Major League team was promising to give the Boston/New York combo a run for their Wild Card money, and the minors were said to be filled with more prospects than anyone else. A month into the season, fans are gasping for air as the Blue Jays are hanging on for life and the team’s upper-level hitting prospects can’t hit.

    Russ Adams, supposed 2005 replacement for Orlando Hudson: .243/.345/.378.
    Alexis Rios, supposed 2005 replacement for Reed Johnson: .270/.293/.461.
    Guillermo Quiroz, supposed 2005 replacement for Kevin Cash: .241/.344/.407.
    Aaron Hill, 2003 first-round pick: .207/.347/.224
    Ty Godwin, ex-first round pick: .154/.214/.215
    John Ford-Griffin, ex-first round pick: .190/.320/.262

    OK, I’ll stop the beating, we’ll look at some positives. Dustan McGowan has been the hottest starters of any of my top 50, sporting a 1.21ERA at AA, including only twelve hits in 22.1 innings. Josh Banks has a microscopic 0.41ERA at high-A, with a WHIP well below 1.00 and 27K in 22IP. Francisco Rosario has bounced back well, striking out twelve in twelve innings.

    Vito Chiaravalloti continues to defy scouts, hitting .300/.389/.525 in the Florida State League. Digging deeper, both outfielder Mike Galloway (.321/.379/.566) and second basemen Ryan Roberts (.387/.519/.629) are dominating the Sally League. The moral? If you dig deep enough, there is always hope, even for Canadian baseball fans.

    Chicago White Sox

    I already mentioned him in this piece, so I figured I should start the Sox report on Jeremy Reed. The latest numbers are in, and Reed is hitting .322/.361/.422 at AA, which is in my mind, good enough to replace Aaron Rowand soon. But before that happens, Reed should improve his BB/K, seeing as it’s only 4/13 right now. On the other end of the spectrum, it’s Joe Borchard with the insanely low BA (.218), but the high walk total (10). Never thought you’d hear that, huh?

    Things seem to be going well in Birmingham, as Arnie Munoz must be making some Sox higher-up happy. Someone decided to move Arnie to the rotation, and well, it’s working. Munoz has a 1.46ERA so far this year, allowing 11 hits and striking out 25 in 24.2 innings. Felix Diaz might be making a run at that White Sox 5th starter’s job at AAA, but Munoz must garner some competition at some point. Another is Tetsu Yofu, a Japanese swingman with a 2.31ERA in AA. He’s only walked four in 23.1, and should make one helluva middle reliever some day, if not soon.

    Who would have thunk it, but shortstop is turning out to be a good position for the White Sox. Michael Morse, an unheard of, is hitting .325/.365/.638 at AA, and Sox brass is already plotting his ETA. Jose Valentin is a free agent at the end of the year, Willie Harris stinks, so why not 2005? Well, I wouldn’t bet on it happening that way. The other shortstop is the quick Robbie Valido, the low-A middle infielder with ten stolen bases in 21G.

    Cleveland

    Things are not always as they appear. Sure, Grady Sizemore looked like a can’t miss prospect and Brandon Phillips looked washed up before the year, right? Wrong. Phillips is back to the ’02 version, hitting .369/.455/.508 at AAA, while Sizemore’s OPS hasn’t topped .800. But hey, he’s not been as bad as say, Jeremy Guthrie, who in his second go-around in AAA has an ERA of 7.91.

    In AA, people are all living up to expectations. Franklyn Gutierrez is hitting over .300, and Corey Smith has revived himself with a SLG over .600. Francisco Cruceta has a great ERA with 2.70, but is managing to keep those K numbers down, striking out only 13 in thirty innings. Jake Dittler has been fabulous, with his ERA at 1.59 in AA. But no one has matched Adam Miller, the right-hander looking to become this season’s Greinke. Miller has a 1.44ERA this year in low-A, allowing only 14 hits in 25IP, with 31K and 7BB.

    Detroit

    Dave Dambrowski isn’t catching breaks. After seeing his Major League team defy expectations in the first two weeks, the team is slowly waning below .500, slipping place-by-place on the division standings. And all the while, Dambrowski just simply can’t buy himself a prospect, I mean, even first rounders can’t be counted on.

    Apparently, low SLG are a necessary part of being a Tiger. Curtis Granderson has a .339SLG at AA (against a .418OBP!), Scott Moore has a .371, Brent Clevlen’s got a .361, and Kody Kirkland is a organization low with .274. Only middle infielders David Espinosa (.553) and Tony Giarratano (.458), are escaping the low SLG bug.

    With Connolly gone, I see only three note-worthy pitchers in the organization. Kyle Sleeth is struggling at high-A, currently pitching with an ERA of 4.43. Joel Zumaya is worse at 5.40, largely because of his sixteen walks in 26.2 innings. Finally, Kenny Baugh is struggling with his comeback from arm surgery, allowing 28 hits in 22 innings. Any team thinking about drafting a kid from Rice, watch out, they really ride those arms.

    I’m barely half way through, but have touched the 2,500 word mark. Another six teams and I’ll be pushing 4,000, but with no readers left. So, how about I’ll make a second post this week (we’ll shoot for Thursday), and open the comments section up for any prospect that was left out, or any non-mentioned American League team’s prospect that I should talk about on Thursday.

    WTNYMay 03, 2004
    One More Day
    By Bryan Smith

    Yes, I know this is only the second edition of my weekly postings, but this post is being written to announce that WTNY weekly #2 will be tomorrow. Personal matters have taken me away from the baseball world all weekend, and you must give me today to get myself back into the swing of things. Tomorrow you can expect a full length minor league report for all American League teams, so check back on Tuesday. Thanks!

    WTNYApril 26, 2004
    The Announcement
    By Bryan Smith

    Hello and welcome to the new Wait ‘Til Next Year. What used to be a daily blog has been insufficient of late, with posts that come sparingly, and just not the type of work that All-Baseball deserves. So, at the suggestion of reader Tom DeCola, I have decided to join the Lederer ranks and write weekly articles. My commitment to the Hardball Times, as well as a busy schedule on the side, has left me to think this is the best option.

    In these weekly articles, I hope to encompass everything that I do well as a writer. I’ve never wanted this to be a traditional website, and that will not change now. The things you’ll see on a weekly basis:

    - First of all, thoughts and updates on the minor leagues. This is the single most uncovered area of on-line ‘blogs’
    - Updates and thoughts on the amateur draft, an area of increasing interest for me. On March 8th, I wrote my first piece on this issue, and you’ll see me touching on the draft all the way until June.
    - Player profiles, like the one I did for Dontrelle Willis. Taking a player that hasn’t hit the ‘peak age’, finding compareables through traditional stats (and my friendly Sabermetric Encyclopedia), and predicting the future. It works perfectly for a site with my title.
    - Thoughts on the Cubs. Sure, we have a Cubs site here at A-B, and already three Cubs fans (Will, Christian, Alex) before me, but I won’t let that stop me from making a few statements. There will never be a ton, but a weekly thought on my team isn’t a crime, is it?
    - And as always, creating or commenting on speculation. I’ll say what teams should make trades, or what teams are thinking about making trades.

    And that’s it. These articles will appear on Mondays, so check back each week, and please, leave your comments below. Enjoy the first ever edition of Wait ‘Til Next Year Weekly...

    So I turn on Sunday Night Baseball yesterday, excited to see a former Cub try and extend his scoreless streak. Dontrelle pitched well, starting a little shakily but getting hotter as the night went on. Much to my chagrin, another former Cub, Hee Seop Choi, was on the bench for the start of the game. Choi was traded to the Marlins for Derrek Lee, a deal I was very excited for when it happened. Many Cub fans were disappointed, seeing the potential that Choi had, but I knew that Lee’s present day value outweighed Choi’s future value.

    And then the season began, and I was getting made fun of right and left. Why? Well, because by April 15, Choi’s ninth game as a Marlin, he had already hit 5 home runs. Lee’s power still hasn’t piqued, as he currently sits at two home runs. I still remain optimistic about the trade, but in a fit of panic, had to consult the SBE to predict exactly what Choi might become.

    After looking into sub-25 players with very bad seasons, I ran across three players. Jason Thompson, the most fitting example, was a big left-handed first basemen with Detroit in the mid-70s. After a .218/.328/.376 rookie season, Thomspon bounced back to hit 31 homers his next year, good for a .487SLG. Thompson played eleven seasons in total, and would manage to hit more than 200 homers for his career. Despite being opposite than Choi in build, Mo Vaughn is a decent example. In 1992, Boston gave the first basemen 355AB, and he produced for a .234/.326/.400 line. The next year Vaughn exploded, hitting .297/.390/.525, including 29 home runs. Finally, Andre Thornton split the 1976 season between Chicago and Montreal with a sub-.700 OPS, and an average below the Mendoza line. Thornton would hit 28 jacks the next year, improving his slugging from .373 to .527.

    There is a pattern here. After very poor seasons, all three of these players saw massive improvements in their slugging percentage, and hit between 28 and 31 home runs. None of the bunch lasted long, including Thompson, who was out of baseball before turning 32. I look for Choi to follow a similar trend: about 30 home runs this year, and around that number for the better part of eight to ten seasons. Then look for a big decline in batting average and power late in his career, finishing at about the age of 35. The media might make the Lee-Choi trade look bad for years to come, but Hendry was completely defensible in the move, no matter where the Cubs finish in 2004.

    OK, let’s venture into the minors, where the top 3 ranked teams enjoyed very nice weeks. No matter how you rank it, the Angels, Dodgers and Brewers should have been the top ranked organizations this offseason. Los Angeles was ranked highly mainly for their pitching, in which they boasted Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, and Joel Hanrahan. But since then, Jackson didn’t make the Dodgers and has struggled in AAA so far, Miller has gone under the knife, and Hanrahan is rumored to be the player to be named later in the Milton Bradley trade. But, the organization is still faring well, but this time with a different trio of arms: Andrew Brown, Chad Billingsley, and Chuck Tiffany.

    Brown has been the best thus far, striking out an amazing thirty-six batters in a little over nineteen innings, while walking only five in the Southern League. Brown, along with Colorado Rockie right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, have easily been the best two pitching prospects so far. Billingsley, a controversial choice in the first round last season, is making the Dodgers look very good with a 1.69ERA in his first sixteen innings. Tiffany has only started twice in the South Atlantic League, striking out eleven in his first eight innings. All three look very promising, and only adds more depth to a great Dodgers minor league pitching staff. A little ironic that Paul DePodesta’s organization has the most high school arms in the Majors?

    Anaheim is seen as the opposite of Los Angeles, as they are high-ranked mainly due to their hitting. At catcher they have Jeff Mathis, who is hitting .333 in AA. Casey Kotchman had a huge week, and is hitting .350 with seven extra-base hits in sixty at-bats. Alberto Callaspo, a surprise choice for the AA roster, is struggling a bit, as he doesn’t have an extra-base hit yet. His possible future double-play partner, Erick Aybar, is doing well in high-A. And Dallas McPherson continues to give the Angels a reason not to re-sign Troy Glaus. The one negative aspect of the past week for the Angels was Bobby Jenks, who last his last start due to elbow pain, uh-oh.

    Milwaukee is considered a very stacked organization, and the Major League team should begin to feel the fruits of their labor very soon. Ben Hendrickson has began the year very well in the International League, and I look for him to break the rotation in Miller Park very soon. Corey Hart has done very well, and if Ben Grieve struggles, should land the right field spot at some point. J.J. Hardy is struggling big time, but double play partner of the future Rickie Weeks has reemerged from his slump in AA. Finally, it’s Dave Krynzel, who is blocked by Scott Podsednik, is dominating the International League, giving the Brewers a little trade bait come July.

    Speaking of International League center fielders, Krynzel isn’t the only prospect in that terrain. Indians top prospect Grady Sizemore, the White Sox’ Jeremy Reed, and Toronto’s Alexis Rios are all in the same league. Of that bunch only Sizemore isn’t doing well, as he just topped the Mendoza line this week. Both Reed and Rios are above .350, and both should be fighting for Major League spots soon.

    Though Sizemore isn’t doing well, it’s a former Indians top prospect, Corey Smith, that has started off the season well. Smith has caught fire in the last week, and has hit five home runs in fifty-four at-bats this season. The third basemen is hitting .333, and also has five doubles to make a slugging percentage of .704. Another former hot corner prospect, Tony Blanco, is also off to a powerful start for the Cincinnati Reds. Blanco, part of the Scott Williamson deal, is hitting only .226, but leads the Carolina League with six home runs in 53AB.

    Finally, I want to turn our attention to last year’s draft, in which many players are doing well. Both Kyle Sleeth and Tim Stauffer had their best starts of the year this week, looking to justify top-five selections for the Tigers and Padres. Vince Sinisi and Conor Jackson, two college sluggers, are both off to hot starts in the California League, and both have moved to the outfield from their original positions. John Danks is doing his best Scott Kazmir impression in the Midwest League, striking out more than twenty hitters in just over eleven innings. And post-first round players Omar Quintanilla (Athletics) and Xavier Paul (Dodgers) also started to warm up this week. I’ll chart this draft as the year goes on, so keep reading.

    With that being said, let’s talk about this year’s draft. The talk now seems to be that Justin Verlander is the second best prospect overall, meaning the Tigers could take the right-hander with the second choice. I see this as a large mistake, looking at Stephen Drew, who hit his tenth homer this week, as the second best player in this draft. Drew is a refined hitter with great plate discipline, handles the shortstop position well, and could advance through the system quickly. Verlander is as raw as a college arm gets, boasting big strikeout numbers as his only draw. In fact, I can see arguments for Wade Townsend and Phillip Humber before Verlander as well. But this likely won’t happen, and you’ll see both Verlander and Jeff Niemann be chosen before his other two Rice teammates.

    Finally, I want to turn your attention to a recent Chris Kahrl chat at Baseball Prospectus, highlighting this question particularly:


    Benjamin Flowers (University of Maryland, Baltimore County): The Orioles' 2B situation is going to get messy when Hairston returns. What's the optimal solution?
    Chris Kahrl: Make him a Snake for Chad Tracy, giving the Colangelistas a neato marketing angle for having both Hairstons, not to mention an even easier reason for them to move brother Scott in the outfield. Plus it doesn't really help them, and as I'm no fan of Arizona, I get a quickie schadenfreude contact high.

    This only reminds me of an odd 2B situation around the Major Leagues, in which the Whtie Sox and Cardinals both have unidentified problems. Arizona, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Boston could all be cited as places that have 2B issues, but I do see help on the way. Baltimore will look to deal either Hairston or Roberts at some point this year, and Milwaukee would be stupid to hang onto Junior Spivey. Russ Adams will allow J.P. Riccardi to deal his least favorite Jay, Orlando Hudson, and the Phillies might unload Chase Utley in a trade. Finally, the top player might be Jose Vidro, who the Expos could unload if they are in a bad spot at the All-Star Break. I can already see the lines forming for Vidro, particularly a battle between DePodesta and Theo Epstein.

    That’s all for this week, mainly because with a six-game winning streak, I have no bitching about the Cubs. Take care, and thanks to both Lee Sinins and Kevin Goldstein for their daily work, without which there would be no Wait ‘Til Next Year. I leave you with a list of leaders, the leaders of innings pitched given an ERA of 0.00...

    1. Rodrigo Lopez- 12.2IP
    T2. Francisco Rodriguez- 10.2IP
    T2. B.J. Ryan- 10.2IP
    T2. J.C. Romero- 10.2IP
    5. Braden Looper- 9.1IP
    6. LaTroy Hawkins- 8.1IP
    7. Danys Baez- 8IP
    T8. Justin Wayne- 7.2IP
    T8. Ryan Madson- 7.2IP
    10. Guillermo Mota- 7.1IP

    WTNYApril 15, 2004
    Everything and Nothing
    By Bryan Smith

    The Hardball Times crashed on Tuesday, and as I write this, isn't back up yet. We have some great tech guys fixing the problem, and it looks like everything will be restored fine. It's the early stages of what has been an amazing project, and I hope we don't lose any readers as a result.

    Also, let me say congrats to the Cub Reporter for a Business Week mention, and for Mike's Rants being mentioned in a MSN Slate article recently. It's great to see my boys here at All-Baseball getting some pub, it really humbles me and reminds me of the kind of talent that we have here. And seriously, someone give Alex Belth a job in writing...please...

    So the Cubs won today, an easy 8-3 victory over the Pirates. Matt Clement pitched well, and I have to credit Dusty for taking him out after crossing the 100-pitch mark. Farnsworth is having some early season issues, but I won't worry about him come the summer months. With a warm arm, Farnsworth is consistently at 100 mph, which makes his slider all the more deadly.

    Lord, Aramis Ramirez is currently the best Cubs hitter. Sure, he's hitting only .294, but he's smoked five doubles already, and his two home runs yesterday were really uplifting. I really expected Derrek Lee to step up early as the top Cub hitter, but he hasn't. And just as I expected, all the Cubs cynics are pointing to some Korean first basemen on the Marlins that hit his fourth homer yesterday.

    Speaking of the Marlins, Miguel Cabrera currently leads the Majors with six home runs. I really was backing up Miguel in a debate we had before the season at All-Baseball, but I didn't think his success would come this fast. If he can keep this up all season, some of my insane comps might actually fit.

    Unlike many Cub fans, I don't hate the White Sox. Much of my family supports the South side, and I went to more games at Comiskey than at Wrigley growing up. Don't get me wrong, I'm a diehard Cubs fan, I just don't root against the Sox in all of their 162 games, only six of them. But still, I'm constantly badgered by Sox fans who love pointing out their team. The Sox are hitting at an insane rate right now, and once that regresses to normal, their true colors will show. And unlike Farnsworth, I can't say Billy Koch has the brightest of futures.

    So to branch away from Major League Baseball, I've been thinking about the draft lately. Rich Lederer has helped me to believe that Jered Weaver is a lock for the top spot, although places like Baseball America will try to make it into a controversey. I also believe that Detroit would be stupid to take anyone but Stephen Drew, the best hitter in college baseball. Drew has great power and patience at shortstop, and is a safer choice than anyone else.

    So that brings us to the Mets. New York likes to make flashy selections, someone they can flaunt, and someone that will demand a very hefty bonus. Before Jeff Niemann's troubles, it appeared Drew would drop to here, but with Niemann out of my top five, Jim Duquette has a touch choice. He could go with a couple high school pitchers, likely Nick Adenhart from New England, he could go with someone from the Rice trio, or he could go with Justin Verlander. BA has tried to tout Verlander all season, and right now, I expect him to be the third selection in this year's draft.

    Now, I want to talk about the future of this blog. I have not written a lot here, both because I'm doing hard work for THT and on the side, and because there aren't a ton of topics for me to discuss. What kind of stuff do you readers like to get from here? What can I do that will bring you back? In order to make this a better site, I need some advice here and now...

    WTNYApril 12, 2004
    Notes from a disgruntled Cubs fan
    By Bryan Smith

    I guess despite my favorite pitcher tossing an eleven strikeout game today, I wasn't happy with how the weekend went. Maybe I'm still upset with how the Cincinnati series went, but the Cubs really should have swept this series.

    Sergio Mitre was not my choice to make the fifth slot in the rotation, but he pitched one helluva game on Saturday. He only throws two pitches, a big breaking pitch and a bigger sinking fastball. Steve Stone was noting that by showing his breaking ball early, hitters were biting for his sinking fastball, causing an exorbitant amount of groundballs. Great game Sergio, you definitely earned another start.

    But flip to the top half of the seventh inning, when the Cubs are winning 2-1. Paul Bako leads off, and like Bako, grounds out to the shortstop. Up comes Sergio Mitre, with about 80 pitches under his belt for the night. I said to my friend watching the game with me, "This early in the year, you take out the rookie after six innings." I know the bullpen is worn down from the night before, but you don't take your chances here. Mitre gets out, but retires the Braves in order in the seventh, making me look like a moron.

    And then comes the eighth. Mitre quickly retires the first two hitters, but up comes the Braves' hardest out, Marcus Giles. I was a fan of Giles years ago, but I damn near love the guy today. He works counts well, and he is by far a more difficult out than Chipper Jones, J.D. Drew or Andruw. After a Giles single, Dusty Baker brings in Andy Pratt to face Chipper and Drew. Andy Pratt? You mean the same Pratt that had allowed two walks in two-thirds of an inning the night before? Please no. Let it be Farnsworth (later the goat), Hawkins, or Kent Mercker. But not Andy Pratt.

    Well, we lost. Between this and being shut out by Paul Wilson, it's been a frustrating season. Six games is a little early to be frustrated with your manager, but I'm quickly tiring of Dusty. Derrek Lee is quickly becoming my favorite Cubs position player, but why is he batting sixth? While Baker is getting better with the pitch counts, managing relievers and lineups is essential to his job. Yikes.

    The next thirteen games are against Pittsburgh, Cincinnatti and the Mets. I have high expectations, and by that, I mean at least 9-4. It's time for this team to start flexing their muscle, and proving that unlike the San Francisco Giants with Jason Schmidt, one injury will not ruin this team.

    To make matters worse, I've been reading/seeing the crosstown White Sox do well. Magglio Ordonez is on an insane hot streak, and the Sox are slowly convincing me they are good enough to win this division. I like that Ozzie stuck with Jon Garland through eight innings the other night, but they are a little short on starters. Arnie Munoz had a great start for them in AA the other night, so maybe they'll have a midseason replacement for Schoenweis.

    And in the Yankees game Sunday, I was treated to the sight of Bubba Crosby, the only Yankee I currently like. Bubba had a great play in center running into the wall, and then stayed back long enough on a Danny Wright knuckle-curve to hit it to deep right-center. Crosby reminds me a lot of Reed Johnson in Toronto, and if given the chance, would likely produce similar numbers. But timing is everything in baseball, and in the long run, I look for Crosby to turn into more of a fourth outfield type.

    Didn't get to see much of PETCO, but it looked nice. I'm waiting to get the full run-down by Hardball Times contributor Vinay Kumar. And a few notes from the weekend that I thought I'd throw at Rich Lederer: is that Victor Zambrano 3-0 and Andy Pettite on the DL?

    WTNYApril 05, 2004
    Thought Out Predictions
    By Bryan Smith

    I've been gone for a good part of a week, and I didn't get the chance to advertise the new All-Baseball homepage, where my colleagues and I now have a group blog. It's being updated multiple times a day, and yours truly will be making his first post in minutes. Onto my article...

    Earlier I quickly ran through my predictions, but I wanted to write out my thoughts, so here goes, division-by-division:

    Not many teams face a downhill season like the Phillies, a club that appears to be the easiest lock in baseball. Ed Wade has built a team that lacks weaknesses, from the NL's best lineup to a strong, rebuilt bullpen. The story of the year will be Atlanta's first downfall in a decade, but I have predicted the playoff streak to continue. Good seasons from newcomers J.D. Drew and John Thomson will keep a 90-win team in Georgia, and in the end, they'll hold off the Astros. John Scheurholtz will look like a genius when rookie corner infielders Adam LaRoche and Andy Marte carry the team through September. And just Wait 'Til Next Year, everyone will be predicting the Braves to fall out of the playoffs in Spring Training 2005.

    I'm on of the few not predicting the Mets to be last, I guess I just see a spark here. When Jose Reyes returns the team will have a very potent lineup, from Reyes and Kaz at the top, to Piazza-Floyd-Cameron in the middle, to Garcia-Phillips-Wigginton at the end. Al Leiter was one of baseball's best after the break, and the team has the room to add another starter by midseason. Florida will struggle coming off a World Championship, as expectations for players like Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willie are a little too high. Instead the focus should be on developing players like Hee Seop Choi, Ramon Castro, and most of all, Miguel Cabrera. Montreal has the makings of a good club, but I can't imagine how decimated that 25-man roster will be August 1.

    In the NL Central, I must admit that I have some bias. Expectations for my Cubbies are higher than they've ever been, due to an October collapse mixed with media hype. If Dusty can manage around the injury bug they're a lock, the club is simply the best in every facet of the game. I don't believe I'm underrating the Astros here, instead I think the general population overrates them. Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens are nice additions, sure, but how much can they contribute at this point? Where else are they improved? Finally, I think the Cards might be holding the division by May, but should drop it by June. It's just impossible to win without pitching, no matter how many All-Stars your lineup has.

    At the bottom of this division, things start to get ugly. Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh should all be jumbled together, none with 75 wins. I pick the Brewers fourth simply because I believe that few managers get as much out of their players as Ned Yost does. A second half youth movement could either make the team red hot, or make them fall apart. Austin Kearns is the league's next superstar, but he is too undeveloped to hold a team on his shoulders yet. Holes on the left side of the infield and the entire rotation are too large to ignore, and it won't take long for Dave O'Brien to realize he's inherited a bottomless pit. Finally, I have the Pirates to finish last. They may be fourth by the Break, but trades should deem them worthless in the second half. The only questions here are who will be managing come August and who will come to PNC by September?

    My hardest division choice came in the NL West, where choosing a team is like picking between brussel sprouts, lima beans, and anchvies. I was left with the Padres, mainly because I think Kevin Towers will be the 2003's Jim Hendry is given the chance. I'm not going to call Jered Weaver to win Rookie of the Year like Rich Lederer might, they just have too much depth to call him up. San Francisco has no depth, but Jason Schmidt and Barry Bonds could be enough to carry this team. In the end, a rotation with the likes of Kirk Rueter will damage this club far too much. Peter Gammons might be picking Arizona, but I can't see it. They have San Francisco's depth without their superstars, but just enough good players to lurk around .500. And Luis Gonzalez? Like a timebomb waiting to hit the 60-day.

    Toronto is learning the hard way that hiring an analytical GM doesn't make a division winner overnight, a lesson Los Angeles will soon learn. Paul DePodesta won't hesitate to make a trade, but there are just too many holes for this computer nerd to patch. Landing Magglio Ordonez at midseason and watching Edwin Jackson have a Dontrelle effect will be fun, but writing Cesar Izturis everyday in the scorecars will become too old for those O.C. fans. Finally, expect Colorado to have the NL's worst record. The NL Central's bottom feeders can eat at themselves, but the West's flush of mediocrity will be too much for the Mile High boys. Any team banking on the performance of Shawn Estes is going to have a rough six months.

    Though men like John Kruk are hyping the Anaheim Angeles. I just can't buy into them. Oakland is too tough to knock off, it seems like they'll just hand around there like the '03 Cubs. Billy Beane will swing any deal to put this team on top, and his ability to outwit competitiors continues to pay off. They might not appear to have enouogh offense, but I think Mark Kotsay and Bobby Kielty might surprise you. Vladimir Guerrero is a fantastic addition, but I expect Tim Salmon and Jose Guillen to have big drops. Darin Erstad's move to first will prove to be the wrong decision, as Garret Anderson will not fulfill Peter Gammons huge MVP-like expectations. Anaheim is a very good team and the 2005 favorites, but they'll have one more season on the outside looking in.

    The boys over at U.S.S. Mariner have been criticizing Bill Bavasi al winter, and each time I've been left to agree. But while the team could have done better with each move, they aren't a terrible team. There are not a lot of glaring weaknesses, but just not enough strengths to outwin the Angels or A's. Raul Ibanez, Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche should all face dropoffs, and the Mariners can't have that happen and win 85-90 games. The AL's worst team should be the Texas Rangers, where John Hart has established the league's most futile pitching staff. Sure, Mark Teixeira might be a superstar in the making, but if A-Rod couldn't get this team out of the basement, how will Mark?

    If the NL West is like picking between bad foods, it's fair to say the AL Central is like picking between different ways to die. The Central is plain terrible, and most divison's #3 could win here. But geography holds strong and the games simply must go on. I have Kansas CIty, because in Allain Baird's credit, they are an extremely deep team. Sure they don't have great strengths, but unlike their Central enemies, they have no weaknesses. Hold onto Beltran as long as you can Baird, he really is MVP-caliber. Minnesota has a very nice lineup, yes, but where is that pitching staff depth? Will J.D. Durbin and Jesse Crain be able to make up for the early season woes? Ozzie Guillen's ability to manage is an overrated problem, the 3-4-5- spots in the rotation aren't. Unless Jon Garland turns into Kip Wells, expect the White Sox in third.

    Spring Training problems got Milton Bradley kicked out of Cleveland already, which isn't exactly a good thing. The Indians have the depth to withstand his loss, but Bradley was just beginning to come into his own. Grady Sizemore might get pushed a little faster as a result, and Mark Shapiro will be praying that doesn't have the Brandon Phillips effect. Cleveland has a semi-potent lineup, a bona fide ace, and an underrated bullpen, so they'll be closer to third than fifth. That leaves Detroit for last because while improved, the Tigers aren't rebuilt. Not finishing with the worst record in the AL would be a nice start and a very nice tribute to Alan Trammell. Me, I'm just hoping the team hasn't permanently ruined Jeremy Bonderman's arm.

    Given the Rangers having the worst AL record, Detroit will battle with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for second. Lou Piniella has done a good job in Florida, but in the Al East, Tampa won't smell 75 wins. Rocco Baldelli and Victor Zambrano are interesting subplts that should give even you a reaosn to actually read Tampa's box sxore. For years the D-Rays have been clawing at the Baltimore Orioles, but in 2004, they'll see again the same results. Flanagan and Beattie built a nice offense in Baltimore, but they kind of forgot about the pitching staff. They'll spend 2004 evaluating what they have in pithcings like Ainsworth, Riley and Bedard, and then build accordingly. Toronto will be less of a factor than the sabermetric community likes to believe, and they'll be sitting closer to Baltimore than Boston at year's end.

    Last but not least is the rivalry. Much has been made of who is better between Boston and New York, but at this point that's left to be determined by the injury bug. New York is facing the best situation right now, as both Nomar and Trot Nixon have been lost to injjury Theo will attempt to out thing the Yankees, but he'll learn the hard way that money, not knowledge, is power.

    Onto the playoffs:
    New York over KC; Oakland over Boston
    Philly over SD; Cubs over Braves

    Oakland over New York; Cubs over Philly

    Oakland over Cubs in 7

    And finally, I'll close out today's article with a few lists I thought up. First, here is my prediction of what teams will be choosing in the top 10 of baseball's 2005 June amateur draft:

    1. Rangers
    2. Rockies
    3. Devil Rays
    4. Pirates
    5. Tigers
    6. Reds
    7. Orioles
    8. Expos
    9. Indians
    10. Brewers

    Lastly, the team that will have a different manager in one year:

    * Phillies- Bowa out by midseason, my guess is Joe Kerrigan is named replacement

    * Marlins- Jack McKeon retires after abysmal season

    * Expos- Frank Robinson gets tired of having his best players always traded or left unsigned and quits

    * Pirates- Lloyd McClendon out by midseason

    * Diamondbacks- Bob Brenly fired at the end of the year

    * Dodgers- Jim Tracy out by August

    * Rockies- Clint Hurdle replaced at year's end

    That's it for today, enjoy the baseball of tomorrow...

    WTNYApril 05, 2004
    Predictions
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey everyone, I'm finally back. I've been away from the computer for about a week and a half, but on Opening Day I return. Did anyone else watching the O's-Red Sox game last night see the similarities between Sidney Ponson and Carlos Zambrano? About 80% fastballs, big sinker and a decent slider? Next stop for Big Z...knighthood!

    I'll throw some links from the Internet out this afternoon along with some predictions, but for now I'll go through the basics without comment...

    NL East
    1. Phillies
    2. Braves
    3. Mets
    4. Marlins
    5. Expos

    NL Central
    1. Cubs
    2. Astros
    3. Cardinals
    4. Brewers
    5. Reds
    6. Pirates (Lloyd McClendon out by June)

    NL West
    1. Padres (my hardest pick)
    2. Giants
    3. Diamondbacks
    4. Dodgers
    5. Rockies (worst NL record)

    AL East
    1. Yankees
    2. Red Sox
    3. Blue Jays
    4. Orioles
    5. Devil Rays

    AL Central
    1. Royals
    2. Twins
    3. White Sox
    4. Indians (close to 3rd)
    5. Tigers

    AL West
    1. Athletics
    2. Angels
    3. Mariners
    4. Rangers (worst AL record...by far)

    Wild Cards: Braves and Red Sox
    World Series: Athletics over Cubs (ooh...that hurts to type)

    NL MVP: Albert Pujols (though Derrek Lee makes noise)
    NL CY: Kerry Wood (though Randy Wolf makes noise)
    NL ROY: Adam LaRoche (Dodgers late slide ruins Edwin Jackson's chance at doing a Dontrelle)

    AL MVP: Carlos Beltran (too many in the AL East)
    AL CY: Tim Hudson (Johan Santana finishes second)
    AL ROY: Bobby Crosby

    Tune back later!

    WTNYMarch 24, 2004
    Youth Movement
    By Bryan Smith

    While the media spends Spring Training looking for progress and position decisions, I find the more interesting stories to be in the youth. First, I try to keep up with members of the Rule V draft, I simply don't want to say I missed out on the next Johan Santana. Secondly, I'm going to look at the progress made by my top 50 prospect list.

    Before examining the close choices that some Rule V picks will be involved in, let's look at the changes we've seen since December 15. Tampa Bay selection Alec Zumwalt and Boston choice Colter Bean have been returned to the Braves and Yankees respectively. David Mattox, a Red chosen from the New York Mets, will spend the year away from baseball with significant arm problems. Another Met, Lenny Dinardo, has not gotten in a Spring Training game yet, due to what the New York Times called 'shoulder stiffness'.

    Matt White has had a tumultuous two years bouncing between the Cleveland, Boston, Seattle and Colorado bullpens. White did very well at AAA last year, but has struggled horribly since returning to Cleveland, allowing six hits in less than three innings. Frank Brooks, the southpaw once deal for Mike Williams, is also making his rounds. Brooks has not allowed a run in four Spring Training innings, split between the team that first drafted him (Oakland), and the team he is sticking with the Yankees II concept. Finally, the Cardinals have talked about how much they like Hector Luna, and Walt Jocketty is expected to make such a trade in this regard.

    So that leaves thirteen players that were drafted in the Major League portion of the Rule V draft, starting with former Pirate Chris Shelton. The ex-Buc is 9/20 in camp so far, and should stick with the team. Rich Thompson, the second overall choice, will stay on this club despite just seven hits in thirty-one at-bats.

    In my mind, there are four other players that are locks to make their teams: Jeff Bennett (RH, MIL), Jason Szuminski (RH, SD), Jason Grilli (RH, CHW) and Andy Fox (IF, MON). Grilli has pitched terrible with the White Sox during Spring Training, but he's often been mentioned as a candidate for the next musical. Fox is a veteran that was in the draft by a loophole, and is the kind of move that Omar Minaya is becoming paid for.

    Bennett has not allowed a run in six Spring Training innings, notably due to his heavy fastball. Finally, Rod Beck's sudden disinterest sucks, but it is probably best for the team. Szminski is going to make the Padres since Beck will start tending to important family memebers.

    This leaves seven players that were drafted in the Major League portion:

    1. Chris Mabeus- TEX
    2. Talley Haines- TOR
    3. Willy Tavares- OF HOU
    4. Mike Bumatay- LHP TEX
    5. Jose Bautista- 3B- BAL
    6. Luis Gonzalez- UT- COL
    7. Lino Urdaneta- RH- DET

    The latter three have all done very well in Spring Training, but there is no real place to fit them on the team's roster. The higher ranked people are struggling against the middle-class group, just like my prospect list is seeing.

    Yes, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have proven themselves worthy during Spring Training thus far, but these two along with Bobby Crosby, Grady Sizemore, and especially James Loney and Travis Blackley. Loney's performance has been so good that even Baseball Prospectus has officially jumped on the bandwagon.

    Edwin Jackson was told he had the fifth starter spot prior to Spring Training, but there is a problem. Jackson has allowed 10ER in 11.2IP, not exactly what I envisioned from my #1 pitching prospect. My #2, Greg Miller, is not out for the entire season but should make a noble return in August. Zack Greinke, who began camp dazzling Royal scouts, also struggled (8 hits in 4.2IP), and will start the year in AAA.

    Jeremy Reed will be forced to do the same as he is only 5/30 in Spring Training thus far, definitely beneath the Aaron Rowand level. Alexis Rios was very good in thirty-four at-bats, again showing his power spike with two home runs. Rios, if moved to right field during the season, could help the team in a similar fashion to what Miguel Cabrera did last year.

    Prospects and Rule V selections are guessing games, but I feel it's definitely important to evaluate both areas.

    WTNYMarch 22, 2004
    NL Ponderings
    By Bryan Smith

    It’s been very difficult to post this last week, I’m working extremely hard to put out pieces for the Hardball Times. Once the season starts I should get in a groove that will allow me enough time to do proper work for both, but right now I’m hard at work over there. Keep checking in here though, as I’m inclined to turn this place more “blog-like”, putting out multiple pieces a day. In the mean time, a run through each National League camp:

    San Francisco: Jason Schmidt’s health is so key to this team, and he was scratched from his last start, as a ‘precaution’. San Diego likely didn’t make up 30 games on this team, but if Schmidt can’t start 30 games than it will be a tight race. Pedro Felix has added the shortstop position to his repertoire, which doesn’t look good for you few Neifi Perez supporters. This shouldn’t completely prevent Perez from getting the job, though I’m praying Felipe Alou has enough common sense to give the job to Cody Ransom, I mean, at least he’s Neifi’s younger…

    San Diego: Rotoworld is reporting Brian Lawrence is having some velocity problems with that fastball, so watch out, maybe Ismael Valdes will land a spot with this team. With Lawrence and David Wells in the rotation, health could be an issue in So Cal all year long. Khalil Greene won a job by default, which I guess is nice. I think Greene will be an average shortstop, hitting about .275 with 15 home runs annually. If they were considering Rey Ordonez than that must be music to Kevin Tower’s ears, huh?

    Arizona: Luis Gonzalez is a timebomb, with some given amount of time before he lands on the 60-day DL. His offensive contributions are so key that when the bomb goes off, so do the Diamondbacks’ chances. One interesting Spring Training story is the out of nowhere performance by Casey Daigle, who might now just be the favorite for the fifth spot. He’s finished by the time Edgar Gonzalez is ready, but it’s a nice human interest Spring Training piece.

    Los Angeles: Paul DePodesta simply must make a deal for a hitter this Spring Training, whether it’s Jay Gibbons or Richard Hidalgo. I mean, Paul Loduca in left field? Who thinks of this stuff? I like Edwin Jackson for the fifth spot, but he’s one of the few sure things in this rotation. I mean, I think Jered Weaver is a much safer bet than his brother at this point.

    Colorado: So Larry Walker is out indefinitely, leaving Rene Reyes to the outfield job that he deserves. I was a believer in Miles at second, Bellhorn at short, Atkins at third and Reyes in left, but instead the team brought in Damian Jackson, Royce Clayton, Vinny Castilla and Jeremy Burnitz. Walker is a huge piece of this team, and their quest to the NL’s worst record (and the #2 pick in the 2005 draft) has already begun.

    Chicago: Despite a sore Achilles, everything is going well in Cubdom. I would like it if Juan Cruz looked a little more ready to start the season, but I guess you can’t always get what you want. And is anyone else depressed that Jimmy Anderson is going to be on the roster of the team that is Vegas’ NL favorite? Watching Sergio Mitre pitch last year made me think he would make a good reliever, and now it appears the team is going to give him a chance, as Mitre has probably moved past Todd Wellemeyer in the sixth reliever race, well ahead of Phil Rogers choice of Gary Glover.

    Houston: I made a bet today, over/under on Pettite’s 2004 ERA. 4.20? What does everyone think…over or under?

    St. Louis: Plenty to talk about here. First of all, Tony La Russa is talking, again, about batting the pitcher eighth in the lineup. This makes no sense to me, especially on a team that is going to have a #6 hitter as talented as Reggie Sanders. To put Mike Matheny and Matt Morris behind a good doubles slugger like Sanders is a pity, and Sanders should pay them back with about 60 runs scored.

    Ray Lankford, back from the dead, looks to have snagged the left field and leadoff duties, beating out Kerry Robinson. My thinking was that the team should play Pujols in left, start John Gall at first, and give up someone for Jerry Hairston. Instead Lankford has a job, the team gives up something for Tony Womack, and Hairston is out a month. Ouch.

    Milwaukee: Yes, I believe it entirely possible for the Brewers to make a run at the fourth place crown this year. Doug Melvin is doing a lousy job of moving Junior Spivey, a player that in this market should have a decent market. I mean, the Cardinals aren’t in a dire enough situation to give up former Illinois right-hander Jim Journell, are they?

    Pittsburgh: Last year Bobby Hill had to try not to land the Cubs 2B job, and remarkably, succeeded. This year, despite still fighting the back problems that have bothered him for more than one year, is likely being handed the 2B and leadoff duties. Also, are the Kris Benson and Jason Kendall rumors possibly getting to this team. Benson will probably be dealt by June 1, while I don’t think Kendall is movable at this point.

    Cincinnati: I really have nothing good to say here, there is just no optimism in Cincy this season. If they could possibly find a buyer for Ken Griffey, does it matter what they are asking.

    Philadelphia: What is this I hear about Chase Utley possibly not making the team? OK, I can deal with Keith Ginter getting snubbed by Junior Spivey, but Utley not getting a job? Chase is a way for the Phillies to have twenty homers from the middle infield. Give Polanco the hot corner, and tell David Bell to swallow his pride and go back to the role he had with both San Francisco and Seattle.

    Atlanta: Is Andy Marte this seasons’ Miguel Cabrera? Quite possibly. Luckily for the Braves there are no injuries to report this Spring Training, something Bobby Cox will have to strive to have all season long. By the way, I’m buying Rafael Furcal as the best leadoff man in baseball.

    New York: Kaz Matsui has come out swinging this Spring Training, notching three extra-base hits very quickly in his short career. Matsui should be right around the .295/.330/.445 projections that everyone seems to be making, which will make him a decent shortstop. Jose Reyes, currently out with a hamstring injury, is a much superior baseball player. Might the Rangers take Kaz instead?

    Florida: What is this I hear about a changed delivery for Dontrelle Willis? That, and the Britney Spears concerts being cancelled, are easily the top two most disappointing things from Spring Training.

    Expos: Who?

    WTNYMarch 18, 2004
    The AL on 5/1
    By Bryan Smith

    On May 1 of this year, most of you will open up a newspaper and look at the Major League standings. Most likely, you’ll find yourself somewhat surprised by who is on top and who is on bottom, trying to recall the events of the past month. A key principle in this will be how the teams played in April, how good their opponents were, and how many times they’re playing within their confines.

    It seems that Major League Baseball scheduling is an inexact science, and while teams finish the same in the long run, magnifying the short term will tell us things as well. Today I’ll be changing the site name to ‘Wait ‘Til Next Month”, in honor of my American League shirt that’s years old.

    Each American League division has three ‘contenders’, although I would argue that the Blue Jays, White Sox and Mariners are all pretenders this season. Toronto is a good team in a great division, the White Sox have disastrously bad pitching, and the Mariners don’t have nearly the star power that Anaheim or Oakland possess. And don’t even ask about the Orioles, let’s just say I’m a seller on them.

    Baltimore will play twenty-four games before May 1, tied with Seattle, New York and Boston for most in the American League. The other division teams, Toronto and Tampa Bay, will play twenty-three and twenty-two games respectively. Camden Yards will see 14 of the 24 games, or approximentally 58.3%, third best in the AL. Baltimore got the fourth overall ranking in my Strength of Opponents test, basically applying numerical values to each hand. When combining the Home% and test% and ranking the teams, you’ll get this list:

    1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    2. Texas Rangers
    3. Oakland Athletics
    4. Toronto Blue Jays
    4. Boston Red Sox
    6. Anaheim Angels
    7. Seattle Mariners
    7. New York Yankees
    9. Baltimore Orioles
    10. Detroit Tigers
    10. Cleveland Indians
    12. Chicago White Sox
    13. Kansas City Royals
    14. Minnesota Twins

    Baltimore is not sensational, good for the ninth easiest April 2004 schedule, bur I was feeling a little more sick to my stomach. The Orioles must invest in pitching in the future, or none of the players will be in the Majors the next time an ace comes about. It will be pitching that really holds the Orioles back, but the team will only be forced to throw their fifth starter twice during the month. The Yankees and Blue Jays will need their fifth starter three times, while the Orioles could get away with just one. This luxury offers managers more time to make their decision. For example, the team hasn’t decided on who is going to be the fifth starter, so it allows more time for that too.

    The Yankees and Red Sox will be playing against eachother seven times this April, by contrast, the Blue Jays aren’t scheduled to play New York in it’s first trial in this lunch period. But the Yankees play the Devil Rays and White Sox quite often, so they have that going for them. Boston will need series wins over the three big AL East threats, something I’m a bit doubtful of.

    In the AL Central, the five teams came out to have the five most difficult records in the American League. Minnesota plays the Tigers and Indians a combined twelve times in April, and that should do a lot to elevate their status. The Twins should win it in April, and you have to wonder, will Minnesota fold in this situation?

    Finally, the AL West. Texas is my vote for worst record after April, seeing as though the Kansas City Royals are the worst team they play. Anaheim should catch the division lead by May 1st, but ultimately, Jerry Seinfeld will do with his ending than the Angels. And that’s not saying a lot.

    May 1: NY, MIN, and ANA

    WTNYMarch 16, 2004
    Digress
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, let me start with a thank you. My site, the one here at All-Baseball, topped 10,000 visitors in it’s first month. This was largely due to the press from my top 50 prospect list, but hopefully I can keep this pace up regardless. I write here to be heard, and I can’t explain how great it is to have an audience.

    Speaking of that, thank you for everyone who started to check out the Hardball Times yesterday. We are very proud of the project, both visually and in content. This is a place you should be checking everyday, as there should many articles published each day. My two article a week schedule will make my post lightly (see today) two days a week, so please have patience with me. I’ll have five articles published each week, but some of them will be over at THT. My first is a preview on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who I actually found quite interesting when doing research. For information on the wildness triple crown, Rocco Baldelli’s future, and B.J. Upton’s comparisons, check out the preview.

    Also at THT today is Aaron Gleeman’s top 25 prospects, a day after publishing his 26-50. Gleeman is very high on his catchers, but with this group, rightfully so. He has two members of my top five way down, but I can’t understand Joe Blanton in the top 15. Gleeman does a great job, it’s obvious he’s done his research, so you should definitely go check that out.

    By publishing his list so late, Aaron was able to take into account the recent injury of Greg Miller. A top ten prospect on my list, the Dodger southpaw will likely be out this season, obviously injuring his future greatly. Peter Gammons notes that this brings back the high school pitchers debate, but it’s very easy to point at Cole Hamels as defense. Miller will be missed in this system, but Edwin Jackson is an ace and Joel Hanrahan is pretty underrated. Paul DePodesta plus $100 million can’t hurt either, so my prediction of the Dodgers being annual champions in about three years still stands.

    Eric Chavez signs a six-year, $66M deal with the Athletics. Dave Stewart did a nice job here, there aren’t many teams willing to give six years to a player anymore. Chavez is a fairly safe bet, although six years presents a long time for Beane to get screwed. Chavez is also one of the more platoonable players in the game, but will make $11M per year on his ability to hit right-handers. Eric is a great start for any team, and oh yeah, don’t they have some pitching in Oakland too?

    Also, scary news for Cubs fans...every member of All-Baseball predicts a Cubs NL Central title. Our fourth roundtable was published yesterday, and judging by the response we’ve received from the first three, we want to keep them coming. Comments on the All-Baseball homepage, this site, or The Hardball Times are more than welcomed, as I guarantee your voice can be heard. I’ll be writing more later this week, but enjoy what’s at your disposal now...

    WTNYMarch 15, 2004
    Checking Back
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, I’d like to start off today by making my big announcement...I have joined a cast of other writers to form The Hardball Times. Aaron Gleeman and Matthew Namee (Bill James’ assistant) are heading up the project, and we really feel it will be worth your time everyday.

    The site should be less analytically based than some sites, focusing more on the written word than the number. This fits into my style, and hopefully will appeal to the general baseball fan. We’ll throw at least three articles at readers on a daily basis, and the technical guys have done a great job with the layout. Comments are welcomed, and I hope you’ll be stopping there to see my work in the coming days.

    OK, now to your regularly scheduled Monday article...

    Spring Training sure flies by. After a November and December that fly by due to the Hot Stove, we fall into January. While signings like Ivan Rodriguez and Greg Maddux have made the late offseason interesting the last few years, every January I find myself counting down to Spring Training. And when it gets to Spring Training? I’m just counting down to the season.

    The exhibition games often go unreported, so it’s very difficult to keep up with the latest happenings, even surrounding your favorite team. I’ve gone through all the MLB team sites, Rotoworld, and a few other sources to bring you as much as I’ve heard on Spring Training 2004...

    In Contention

    If a team is serious about making a postseason run, Spring Training should be no more than a tune up. The team should already be somewhat decided, so managers can do more teaching and less evaluating. But there are some interesting stories going around the big boys that are worth keeping track of.

    First and foremost is your only $200M team, the New York Yankees. Steinbrenner can throw all the money he wants at this team, but health will always be a question mark. Jon Lieber’s groin is still being difficult, and it should sideline him for another two weeks. Probable fill-in Jorge DePaula is out with back injuries, and El Duque won’t be ready until May. The door looks to be flying open for Donovan Osborne, the ex-Cardinal pitcher that I didn’t think I would ever see again, much less with the league’s favorite.

    St. Louis doesn’t seem to be worrying about their pitching staff as much as I would like, as Cris Carpenter is very confident in himself. If Carpenter pitches effectively he could bring the Cardinals back into NL Central discussions, although I don’t anticipate that to happen. In other Cardinal news, the team let Steve Cox and Brent Butler go, as Tony La Russa figured there was no way they make the team. There is no word on the 1B/LF situation of the Cardinals, and they would be much smarter to go with John Gall than Kerry Robinson or So Taguchi.

    Cardinal rivals, my team, have had a little drama this season. Mark Prior’s injury seems to get a larger headline everyday, and it’s probable that Prior will miss his season opener in April. This, accompanied with the Mike Remlinger injury, is not a good sign for an organization that can’t remember the last time they won back-to-back seasons. Remlinger’s leftie role will likely be filled by Jimmy Anderson, the ex-Pirate that’s had a fantastic Spring thus far.

    Across town, the White Sox are narrowing down their rotation choices. Scott Schoenweis appears to have been given the fourth spot, leaving the last spot down to Dan Wright, Jason Grilli, or Neal Cotts. Ozzie Guillen eliminated Cotts recently, and Wright is said to be the heavy favorite. I’ve always thought Wright’s knucle-curve would work well in middle relief, but the White Sox simply don’t have enough arms. The fact that a team with Schoenweis and Wright at the back end of their rotation is talking about a division championship sure doesn’t speak well for the AL Central.

    The former World Championship Diamondbacks also have pitching concerns, and have begun eliminating names. Prospects Edgar Gonzalez and Mike Gosling weren’t given much of a chance at the last rotation spot, a battle between Steve Sparks, John Patterson, Andrew Good, and Casey Daigle. Daigle, who? Baseball Prospectus 2004 talks about how Arizona has bad minor league stadiums for pitchers, so maybe Daigle’s 4.59ERA has been deceiving us. That’s not likely though, and I expect Steve Sparks will be named to the position in a matter of days.

    Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies must alter two player’s careers before Spring Training is up, likely sending them to another organization. Amaury Telemaco, Bud Smith, and Dave Coggin are all out of options, and only one will make the back end of the bullpen. Put your money on Telemaco, the ex-Cub right-hander who seems to be remaking his forgotten career.

    Too Many Questions

    It’s March 15. It’s time to figure out the last few spots of the rotation, and managers should already have rough estimates of their Opening Day lineup. The teams that don’t? Well, that’s the type of ballclub headed into disaster. While stories about the Pirates or Devil Rays don’t normally interest me, their Spring Training drama normally beats out any team.

    Pittsburgh had high hopes for their 2B position this year, and are quickly being let down. Freddy Sanchez is hurt, and Bobby Hill hasn’t played a lot. Even a not-ready Hill is a better choice than Abraham Nunez, and Lloyd McClendon should just be willing to let Hill learn on the job.

    Speaking of open middle infield positions, the Brewers are having a fight in the middle infield. My choice would be Keith Ginter (a.k.a. Marcus Giles?) and Bill Hall, but the team seems happy with Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell. I can’t believe the Diamondback duo has yet to be dealt, but Ned Yost seems to be excited to hand the jobs to veterans. Hall has been fantastic in Spring Training thus far, but he’ll be going to the bench somewhere after this.

    Both the Bucs and Brewers are bad, but the Reds are going to give the team a run for their money. Anyways, it appears the Reds are close to naming their rotation, with Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, Cory Lidle, Jose Acevedo, and Jesus Sanchez penciled into the rotation. I’m in disbelief that Brandon Claussen doesn’t have a spot, and equally as mystified that Paul Wilson still plays baseball.

    Wilson’s former team, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, have been nailing down some rotation choices. Mark Hendrickson and Doug Waechtler are joining Victor Zambrano and Jeremi Gonzalez. Paul Abbott and Damian Moss are fighting out the last spot, and Piniella will likely give it to the man he’s more familiar with, Abbott. The team has done a good job with this, though many will argue Chad Gaudin and Dewon Brazelton should get spots. I disagree, let the two dominate AAA before exposing them to the harsh reality that is being a Devil Ray.

    Esteban Yan never did much in Tampa, but he’s seemingly turning his career around in Detroit. After a great Winter League season, Yan is jumping over Nate Robertson as the likely winner of the Tiger fifth starter race. Yan could very well pull a Rodrigo Lopez this year, but chances are he flames out horribly. Detroit will be bad this year, but 50 wins will sure be nice.

    Duh!

    Just to reiterate a few decisions, Darren Dreifort will formally be moving to the bullpen. The last spot is still between Edwin Jackson, Wilson Alvarez, and Jose Lima, but only Jackson has been pitching consistently through Spring Training. Jim Tracy has reiterated time and time again that Jackson will be in the rotation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a spot opens for Wilson Alvarez as well.

    Dustin Hermanson has all but won the Giants rotation race, and Darren Oliver is doing the same over in Florida. Both have been fantastic this Spring, but it shouldn’t mask the fact that both are terrible players. Larry Beinfest should be counting down the days to Burnett, or he should be on the phone landing some pitchers.

    Who’s on the Phone?

    If Darren Oliver doesn’t appeal to Florida fans, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel has mentioned Juan Cruz as a possibility. The team has reportedly offered a mid-level shortstop prospect back to the Cubs, indicative on how far his stock has fallen. It makes so much more sense to rebuild both confidence and trade value in Des Moines, but I can’t say I trust Dusty Baker in this regard. Hang on a little while until Cruz, then attempt to make a comprable Hillenbrand for Kim deal.

    We’ve talked about Donovan Osborne earlier, but the Yankees are interested in Pirate right-hander Kris Benson. Like Ben Sheets, Benson has been on everyone’s mind since the 2000 Olympics, probably setting the bar too high. I haven’t seen Benson pitch since coming back from injury, so I have no first-hand reporting for you in that regard.

    Benson has vowed that he will be traded before the season, and Ken Griffey Jr. is dropping similar bombs in Cincinnati. I just can’t see the Reds getting rid of Griffey, the hometown product they were so elated with to acquire. Ken is owed a lot of money, and few teams can take on the responsibility that comes with owning Griffey’s will.

    Once Jerry Hairston returns from injury, what’s the market on how long it takes Brian Roberts to get dealt. 12 hours, 36 hours.

    That’s all for today, but be sure to check out the Hardball Times, a baby we’ve been nursing for a few months now.

    WTNYMarch 12, 2004
    Note Friday
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, let me again point you to our index here at All-Baseball.com. Christian Ruzich has already posted the three roundtable discussions our group has had, with at least four more coming in the near future. The behind-the-scenes talk at All-Baseball is enriching, and our roundtables are a way to bring this into the public. Adding our homepage to your daily All-Baseball stops would be a good idea as there is going to be content added regularly there. Any suggestions readers have about All-Baseball should land in a comment somewhere, as we are dedicated to creating one of the best baseball stops on the Internet.

    Yesterday, I mentioned the Joe Sheehan piece at Baseball Prospectus on Joe Mauer, as well as Aaron Gleeman’s rebuttal. Sheehan points to Mauer’s height, 6-4, as a reason to discredit Mauer’s future. He shows that only 28 catchers in the history of baseball have accumulated 200 career at-bats while being at Mauer’s height. The list includes no Hall of Famers, Tom Haller is the best, meaning Mauer is going to have to overcome some obstacles to reach stardom.

    Gleeman responds to Sheehan:

    It's an interesting point that Sheehan makes and certainly Mauer's height is worth looking at, but I just don't think it's all that significant. If we drop the magic cutoff number one inch - from 6'4" to 6'3" - we suddenly get a much bigger and better list of players.

    Aaron goes on to prove that 78 catchers have been 6’3” or taller, including seven players who have made the All-Star team at least five times. I agree with both writers here. Sheehan makes a good point to discredit Mauer, but Gleeman does a good job pointing out a flaw. My response would be to add on another qualification, the fact that Mauer bats left-handed. This is somewhat rare among catchers, and another attribute to seperate Mauer.

    In the history of baseball, only 22 catchers have had 1000 career at-bats while batting left-handed and being taller than 6’1”. Only one player on this list, Babe Phelps, had a career OPS above .800. Only six had 100 or more career home runs. Yikes. I ranked Mauer first overall on my prospect list, but I did debate going with Upton or Edwin Jackson.

    Sheehan’s article gave me motivation to write yesterday’s piece on Dontrelle Willis, in which I used history to determine Willis’ future. Willis was one of 14 southpaws in 80 years to have more than twelve wins at twenty-one years of age. The only other current player on that list was C.C. Sabathia. I decided to do some research on Sabathia, and found some very interesting results.

    Sabathia is one of eleven southpaws since 1900 to win thirty or more games before turning 23, while starting in less than 100 games. Sabathia actually ranks third on the list with 43, and I found some interesting names here. The top seven on this list: Fernando Valenzuela, Don Gullett, Sabathia, Chuck Stobbs, Noodles Hahn, Sam McDowell, and Hal Newhouser. One Hall of Famer (Newhouser), and two other greats in Fernando and Sam.

    Of the top seven, all of the players seemed to have a common link. Four of them were not playing professional baseball by their 33rd birthday, and the two exceptions (Valenzuela and Newhouser) were basically inept by then. Also, all of the players had their best years from about the ages 23-26, with little variation. The players seemed to peak early and exit early, something I’ll look for in Sabathia.

    In terms of size, only Sam McDowell (6-5), is close to Sabathia’s huge 6-7 frame. McDowell was a better pitcher at age 22 than Sabathia, but C.C. could follow McDowell’s career path: very good from 23-27, out by the age of 32. Like I did with Willis, I checked Sabathia’s PECOTA card, and I disagreed with it. PECOTA’s weighted mean has Sabathia’s ERA at 4.18, but he should be closer to his 75th percentile prediction of 3.34. I’m a buyer for C.C. in fantasy leagues this year, he could be a nice keeper choice for the next four or five seasons.

    On Monday, I wrote a piece on this year’s Major League draft. With my interest in college baseball reaching it’s career high, I was thrilled to read Craig Burley’s research on the topic. Yesterday Burley gave his top 50 pitchers from the 2003 season, including this top ten:

    1. Jeff Niemann- Rice
    2. John Hudgins (Texas Rangers)
    3. Jered Weaver- Long Beach State
    4. Tom Mastny (Toronto Blue Jays)
    5. Wade Townsend- Rice
    6. Abe Alvarez (Boston Red Sox)
    7. J.P. Howell- Texas
    8. Jason Windsor- Cal State Fullerton
    9. Philip Humber- Rice
    10. Jeremy Sowers- Vanderbilt

    This is a very interesting top ten, and does nothing to discredit drafting Weaver first overall. Niemann was so amazing last year, it’s such a shame that he’s injured this year. As for the hitters, Burley’s top ten was:

    1. Jeremy Cleveland (Texas Rangers)
    2. Michael Aubrey (Cleveland Indians)
    3. Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee Brewers)
    4. Ryan Roberts (Toronto Blue Jays)
    5. Brian Buscher (San Francisco Giants)
    6. Ricardo Nanita (Chicago White Sox)
    7. Stephen Drew- Florida State
    8. Tony Richie (Chicago Cubs)
    9. Tony McQuade (Chicago Cubs)
    10. Jonny Kaplan- Tulane

    Only two players are still in college on this list, the first of which being Stephen Drew. Burley proves that a top three of Weaver, Drew and Townsend is not only plausible, but sensible. Burley’s research is innovating and fascinating, and well worth your time. I hope to talk to Craig much more about this in the future, and I can’t wait to further apply it to the 2004 draft.

    Finally, in prospect related news, Greg Miller is going under the knife. Miller will be on the DL to start the season, and if serious damage is found during surgery, could miss up to one year. While I ripped Baseball Prospectus for ranking Miller in the 30s, don’t they look smarter than me now? Like always, I bow down before the men at BP.

    That’s all for now, have a good weekend...

    WTNYMarch 11, 2004
    Past...Future...Dontrelle
    By Bryan Smith

    One of my favorite baseball hobbies is looking into the past to tell us things about a player’s future. Joe Sheehan tried this on Baseball Prospectus yesterday, trying to discredit Joe Mauer based on his height. I am going to e-mail Joe my comments, but a great rebuttal on this argument is made by Aaron Gleeman today.

    Anyway, I’m going to look into the past to tell me about a 2003 breakout player, Dontrelle Willis. Dontrelle holds a spot in my heart since he’s an ex-Cub, traded away for Matt Clement and Good Ol’ Six Fingers. Willis came out of nowhere, and his 27 starts were very important in the Marlins quest for the Wild Card. Willis entered the picture in May, when injuries had already begun to decimate the team. It was Willis’ sensational stuff and huge media exposure that put the Marlins on the map, and turned the team in the right direction. Jack McKeon gets a lot of credit for what he did with this team, but Willis played a significant role as well.

    But like most breakout players, Willis has his skeptics. Dontrelle saw his ERA fall to 3.30 after a second half in which his earned run average was 4.60. He started to allow more home runs, walks, and hits, trends that scare away most fantasy owners. But the reason to hope with Willis is his age, since last year was only his age 21 season.

    Last year Dontrelle became the fourteenth southpaw in the last 80 years to have twelve or more wins while being twenty-one. The group, chronologically, with their ERA+:

    Curt Simmons- 1950- 120
    Mike McCormick- 1960- 129
    Wade Blasingame- 1965- 94
    Marcelino Lopez- 1965- 116
    Vida Blue- 1971- 183
    Pete Falcone- 1975- 91
    Frank Tanana- 1975- 136
    Tom Underwood- 1975- 90
    Britt Burns- 1980- 143
    Fernando Valenzuela- 1982- 121
    Jim Abbott- 1989- 97
    Steve Avery- 1991- 116
    C.C. Sabathia- 2002- 103
    Dontrelle Willis- 2003- 122

    Of the thirteen, eight players would go on to be All-Stars, which speaks very highly of Willis. But what I noticed was that most of the All-Stars would reach the Midsummer Classic early in their careers, and by the time they met their thirties they were all but forgotten. Blasingame, Vida Blue, Britt Burns, Marcelino Lopez, and Mike McCormick would all have a career year in ERA+ at 21. Steve Avery, Fernando Valenzuela and Frank Tanana would reach their career year in ERA+ before their 25th birthdays.

    Nine of the thirteen players in this study had an ERA+ better than 100 at 21 years of age. Seven of these players would see their career year before 25, and C.C. Sabathia could very well make an eighth player. Only Curt Simmons, the oldest player on this list, would have good years late, seeing his ERA+ reach it’s high both at 25 and 34 years of age.

    I decided to use the Sheehan technique, and compare body types for this study as well. In the end, Steve Avery and Dontrelle Willis turned out to be pretty similar: 6’4’’, just short of 200 pounds, capable of throwing pretty hard. Avery would have his career year at 23, but remained fairly consistent in both his 22 and 23 seasons. Avery then suffered a slow decline, and exited the Majors before his 30th birthday. Last year the Tigers gave Avery a chance in their bullpen, but I doubt we’ll hear Steve Avery’s name in the Major Leagues again.

    My guess here is that Willis will also join the group of people having their career year at 21. An ERA of 3.30 is going to be very difficult to beat, and I don’t see Willis doing it during his career. But expect him to keep the ERA under wraps for the next few years, before seemingly falling apart. The Marlins would be smart to use him as a reliever down the road, a notion that pitching coach Larry Rosenthal has already stated.

    Don’t be afraid to draft Willis this year, but know what you are getting into. His strikeout numbers will be pretty good, and his ERA is likely to drift to around the 3.80-4.00 territory.

    After doing this study, I consulted PECOTA, the Prospectus projection system. Jim Abbott is seen as Willis’ best comp, but Lopez, Burns, Avery, Tanana, and Underwood are all in the top 20. The system also sees a similar decline that I did, with the number of wins he contributes dropping each year. The weighted mean forecast has Willis’ ERA at 3.89, and his VORP staying at a modest 21.8. It seems like PECOTA and I see eye-to-eye here, while most of the time I blame the system for being too pessimistic. But I love it regardless, and if you either haven’t gotten the book or an on-line subscription yet, you’re crazy.

    Matt Clement is going to be a Cub for one more season, and Antonio Alfonseca’s tenure is already up, thank God. Clement will end up having three seasons with the Cubs, and should have his ERA+ be above 100 each time. If he does this, then no Cub fan is going to regret this trade, unless Willis really contributes in the bullpen at 27 years of age.

    WTNYMarch 10, 2004
    Quickly
    By Bryan Smith

    Computer issues yesterday caused me to miss my first post in a long time, and I missed it. Will Carroll wrote a nice article about the future of ‘blogging’ yesterday, and I highly recommend checking that out.

    Speaking of All-Baseball, do yourself a favor and check out our homepage. The A-B team of writers participated in an AL West roundtable discussion, and it’s really worth reading. Christian will adding roundtables about each of the divisions in the coming weeks, so keep your eyes open. Also, I will be in group 2 of Christian’s Cub Reporter roundtables, which will be debuting today. We really feel like All-Baseball is becoming a home, and I’m pleased to say that joining this group has made me a better writer.

    Over at the Batter’s Box, Craig Burley has done a study on college hitters, coming up with some amazing results. Stephen Drew, my #2 prediction, was top ten in 2003, and the overrated Jeff Larish was down in the twenties. This is an amazing study, even if a bit over my head.

    Injuries are starting to hit the Majors, with both Gary Sheffield and Phil Nevin expected to miss times due to injuries. Sheffield’s thumb will not need surgery, although don’t be shocked if this causes problems early on. The team doesn’t have a lot of right field insurance, although it would be fun to see Ruben Sierra trot out there one last time.

    Nevin’s health this season is very important if the Padres are going to make a run at this thing. Xavier Nady is a good temporary replacement, but over the long run he just can’t match Nevin’s performance. The Padres will hurt from this, and slowly they are losing my faith in the NL West.

    Sorry, that’s all I have for today. Expect a larger post tomorrow, but my baseball writing seems to be taking on more responsibilities each day...

    P.S. I got my Prospectus book over the weekend, and it's fantastic. While Jon and Peter both gave ten or eleven excerpts, I'll give one. This is what Prospectus had to say about Ron Coomer:

    "We were just as shocked to find out that Ron Coomer is still in baseball as you are right now."

    WTNYMarch 08, 2004
    My First Draft
    By Bryan Smith

    I’m going to second the All-Baseball excitement about the upcoming amateur Major League draft. Three times this season my colleague, Rich Lederer, has detailed reports on the starts of young phenom Jered Weaver. Jeff’s younger brother is one of many exciting players in this year’s draft, and a name you should expect to be hearing quite often in the coming months. First let me point you to this thread on Baseball Primer, where my thoughts started and a place I’ll quote from often.

    The Major League draft is the least popular draft of the four major sports, and the number one example of Major League Baseball’s marketing problems. Bud Selig should sell the rights to the first five rounds of the draft to ESPN, gather all the GMs in one hotel, and make a scene of the event. Fans will recognize kids from the draft and are more apt to follow their performance in the minor leagues. Instead of this, Selig holds the draft over the phone, allowing fans to find out through Baseball America or Primer, sites which stall from the huge traffic they garner during those hours. Frustration.

    In 2001, the Minnesota Twins had the top pick in the amateur draft after finishing with the worst AL record in 2000. Carl Pohlad being the cheap owner that he is, ordered Terry Ryan to draft local high school product Joe Mauer with the top choice, mainly for signability reasons. This was great for the Chicago Cubs, who had the second overall pick, who chose Mark Prior, the greatest college pitcher ever. Prior was far and away the best player in the draft, but the Twins simply could not afford the $10M bonus that Prior received. After Prior was Dewon Brazelton to the Devil Rays, Gavin Floyd to the Phillies, and Mark Teixeira, the draft’s #2 prospect, to the Texas Rangers.

    Hypothetically, let’s say that trading picks had been allowed in the 2001 draft. The Texas Rangers, just off their ten-year deal with Alex Rodriguez, surely would have been interested in an arm like Prior. Tom Hicks would have ordered the team trade a fringe prospect, maybe Justin Duchscherer (hypothetically), and their #5 pick for the top choice. Texas would have chosen Prior first overall, leaving the Cubs to fill their long 3B void with Mark Teixeira. The pitching-crazed Devil Rays and Phillies still would have drafted Brazelton and Floyd, leaving Mauer to fall to the Twins in the fifth spot. Texas would have Prior and A-Rod, the two greatest young players in the Major Leagues, the Twins would still have Mauer, and the 2003 PCL Pitcher of the Year, Duchscherer. Rodriguez wouldn’t be a Yankee, the Rangers would be a contender, and Aramis Ramirez would be filling the new hole the Yankees have at third.

    But by not allowing picks to be traded, the above situation is merely hypothetical. OK, we’ve dealt with the problems on the Major League draft, but let’s talk about 2004. Here’s the first round for this year, including the supplemental round, thanks to Baseball America:

    1. Padres
    2. Tigers
    3. Mets
    4. Devil Rays
    5. Brewers
    6. Indians
    7. Reds
    8. Orioles
    9. Rockies
    10. Rangers
    11. Pirates
    12. Angels
    13. Expos
    14. Royals
    15. Diamondbacks
    16. Blue Jays
    17. Dodgers
    18. White Sox
    19. Cardinals
    20. Twins
    21. Phillies
    22. Twins
    23. Yankees
    24. Athletics
    25. Twins
    26. Athletics
    27. Marlins
    28. Dodgers
    29. Royals
    30. Rangers
    31. Athletics
    32. White Sox
    33. Yankees
    34. Twins
    35. Athletics
    36. Twins
    37. Royals
    38. Dodgers
    39. White Sox
    40. Blue Jays

    What jumps out here is that the Twins have five picks before the second round, the most since the Moneyball A’s of 2002. Speaking of Oakland, they are have four choices in the top 40, thanks to the Keith Foulke and Miguel Tejada signings. This is why offering free agents arbitration helps. We know Oakland, thanks to Michael Lewis, is college crazy, and are unlikely to draft a high schooler anywhere near the first round. With the A’s recent success, Beane’s friends and assistants are applying his theories in other places.

    Paul DePodesta, the computer-nerd, will likely be using his hard drive come draft day this year. Do not expect the Dodgers to draft a high schooler anytime soon. J.P. Riccardi has drafted college middle infielders Russ Adams and Aaron Hill in his two drafts, and would rather eat his money than spend it on a high school player. Grady Fuson, formerly the A’s scouting director, has a similar job with the Texas Rangers. Despite taking a high school pitcher last year, the team has stated their preference on college-heavy drafting. Theo Epstein and Mark Shapiro, another pair of young GMs will also choose collegiate players with their choices. Finally, in the last 3 drafts, both Pittsburgh and San Diego have chosen college players with each of their first round picks. Coincidence? Not likely.

    Baltimore and San Francisco seem to have the most obscure philosophies on draft day. The Orioles drafted a Junior College player last year, a Canadian high school pitcher in 2002, and a Cumberland University utility player in 2001. San Francisco debuted an interesting technique this year, giving up their first round choice for Michael Tucker, when they could have waited only 24 hours to keep their pick. It seems Brian Sabean feels first-round picks are too volatile to spend millions of dollars on, by far the most interesting take on the draft among all 30 teams.

    What about the teams who prefer high school players? In the last three years, Minnesota, Kansas City, Atlanta, Florida, and Seattle have chosen prep 18-year-olds with their first round pick each season. Atlanta has been drafting high school players, mostly from Georgia for years, and that seems to be going well. The Mets have chosen high school players with their last two choices, drafting Notre Dame right-hander Aaron Heilman in 2001. New York uses their dollars wisely, drafting players who drop for signability reasons each year. Why do players even sign with Boras as amateurs anymore?

    Jim Duquette likely won’t have that problem this season, as the Mets disastrous 2003 performance has landed them the third choice in the draft. Sitting in front of them is Kevin Towers of San Diego, and the lowly Detroit Tigers in the second spot. In my opinion, twelve players have separated themselves from the pack, and with help from BA, here’s a synopsis on each:

    - Nick Adenhart (RHP) Williamsport HS: This season’s Jeffrey Allison, Adenhart is far and away the best high school pitcher in the draft. If he doesn’t sign with Boras he’s guaranteed to be in the top ten, and a good year could get him in the top 5. He’ll likely post cartoon statistics like Allison did last year, and his commitment to North Carolina is laughable.

    - Matt Bush (SS) Mission Bay HS: Will battle with Golson (below) for best high school hitter this season. Bush, sometimes a pitcher, has a great arm at shortstop and a power bat. Tony Gwynn is trying to tempt him to go to San Diego State, but a couple million dollars can change a kid’s mind.

    - Stephen Drew (SS) Florida State University: He’s got some Major League pedigree, and if the season ended today, he’d be a lock for Hitter of the Year. The shortstop is hitting .398, with an insane 1.226OPS. His 19/7 BB/K ratio is sensational, and no other player on this list can match his four home runs. Drew reminds me of Nomar Garciaparra, who played at fellow ACC school Georgia Tech.

    - Greg Golson (OF) John Connally HS: Golson, more than any other player on this list, will be touted as a five-tools player. He’s faster than any other player on this list, and Baseball America calls him a great defender in centerfield. It’s possible the power will never be more than gap power, but he could make one helluva leadoff hitter one day.

    - Philip Humber (RHP) Rice University: Coming into this season, Humber was considered the worst prospect of the Rice trio. But so far in his first 14.1 innings, Humber has an ERA of zero, and twenty-three strikeouts. Humber was formerly the Texas High School Player of the Year, and an Olympic standout in 2002. His stock is climbing, and despite what I said in the Primer thread, he’s top ten material.

    - Jeff Larish (1B) Arizona State University: Larish was a second team All-American after a sensational Sophomore year, and was Street and Smith’s Preseason Player of the Year. But, things have stalled for the powerful first basemen who was once said to have the best college bat since Teixeira. His .412SLG is fifth for ASU regulars, but projectability will keep Larish in the top 15.

    - Jeff Niemann (RHP) Rice University: It seems like things are looking worse in every start. Niemann, who in this Lederer piece was in consideration for the top choice, has struggled coming off minor elbow surgery after the championship. Niemann is 6-9, and once threw in the high 90s, but Bill Meyn from the Primer thread sat behind scouts clocking him in the high 80s Saturday. After only one strikeout in six innings in his last outing, Niemann has just fourteen in 22.1 innings this year. There’s a chance he could be this year’s Marc Cornell or Bobby Brownlie, a rumored #1 who is forced to go to college his Senior year after arm troubles.

    - Justin Orenduff (RHP) Virginia Commonwealth University: Named to Baseball America’s second team Preseason All-America team after a Sophomore season that he struck out 120 men in 95 innings. The 6-4 right-hander is 1-1, 2.35ERA this year, with 27Ks in 23IP. Teams are often intrigued by pitchers from small-town schools (see Brazelton), so Orenduff could be an inexpensive top ten choice.

    - Jeremy Sowers (LHP) Vanderbilt University: Are you also hearing the Sowers at number one rumors? Don’t believe them, but the soft-throwing southpaw will definitely land in the top ten. At 6-1, Sowers may only seldomly touch 90, but he’s struck out 23 in 21 innings this year. Sowers has also only walked two, so the team that drafts him could see Jeremy by 2005. Sowers was chosen by the Reds out of high school, and it’s possible they’ll have the chance to draft him again.

    - Wade Townsend (RHP) Rice University: The Rice workhorse, Townsend is second on any Player of the Year ballot behind Mr. Weaver. In 30 innings this year Wade has a WHIP under 1.00, a K/9 at 12, and an ERA south of 2.00. He’ll produce low to mid-90s heat, but is an injury concern after being worked in every game this year. Townsend should be drafted before his other Owl teammates, and will be in the Majors come 2006.

    - Justin Verlander (RHP) Old Dominion University: Brent in the Primer thread said Verlander would win a radar gun contest, and he’s right. Baseball America says Verlander pitches at 94-96mph, and says on some boards he’s number one.

    - Jered Weaver (RHP) Long Beach State University: Yes people, Rich has a reason to be obsessed. While Lederer has brought his BYU, Baylor and USC starts to life, Weaver’s dominance can’t be fully documented. Weaver is 5-0 this year, striking out 55 men in 35.2 innings, allowing only four runs. He’ll be pitching in the Padres new PETCO park this weekend, so Towers will be able to scout the 6-6 right-hander in his backyard. All-American, Player of the Year, first overall choice...book it.

    I’ll close today with a mock top ten:

    1. Padres- Jered Weaver
    2. Tigers- Stephen Drew
    3. Mets- Wade Townsend
    4. Devil Rays- Justin Verlander
    5. Brewers- Nick Adenhart
    6. Indians- Jeremy Sowers
    7. Reds- Justin Orenduff
    8. Orioles- Matt Bush
    9. Rockies- Greg Golson
    10. Rangers- Philip Humber

    If anyone has seen a college player worth noting, drop a scouting report in the comment box, we could get a Tangotiger-like project going...

    WTNYMarch 05, 2004
    Break Out! Version 3
    By Bryan Smith

    In the last couple of days, I’ve detailed my thoughts on potential breakout hitters and pitchers. Since I’m becoming a fan of prospect hunting more everyday, I will spend today on potential breakout prospects. Also, I’ll likely be unable to post anything Monday morning due to technical issues, so look for a short bullet-point piece midday on Monday.

    Predicting what prospects will do, especially those not yet in the spotlight is extremely difficult, and if one of these thirty players becomes a star, I did a good job. Here is my one breakout choice from the first 15 teams in my new Baseball America Prospect Handbook:

    ARIZONA: Jared Doyle (LHP): Granted, successful college pitchers have no place in the Midwest League. Joe Blanton tore through the league as a University of Kentucky graduate, but Doyle, an ex-James Madison pitcher did well too. Doyle’s strikeout numbers were a bit down, but he sounds like he’s a very hot and cold player with three above average pitches. Doyle is pretty small, but still generates low-90s heat. The Diamondbacks should challenge Doyle by sending him to the Texas League.

    ATLANTA: Jake Stevens (LHP): In the third round of last June’s draft, the Braves made a typical choice. A left-handed Southern starter with a good body and good stuff. Like Dan Meyer and Marty McBride before him, Stevens already possesses two good pitches, and a third is on the way. The Braves do great work with needy young starters, and I expect the same from Stevens this year.

    BALTIMORE: Lorenzo Scott (OF): Not many prospects have plate discipline like Scott in their first few months of professional baseball, as the outfielder’s OBP topped .440 in short-season baseball. Lorenzo didn’t play a lot of baseball at Ball State University, but seems to be making up for that quickly. He didn’t hit a home run in his first tour, just shy of 120AB, but he did have twelve extra-base hits. There is reason to keep an eye on Scott, as the next Jeremy Reed could come from anywhere.

    BOSTON: Abe Alvarez (LHP): For some reason, I trust Dirtbags. Long Beach State has a fine baseball pedigree, producing talent ranging from Jason Giambi to Jered Weaver. Lost in the Weaver hype last year was Abe Alvarez, the southpaw that Theo spent his first ever second-round pick on. Alvarez lacks the ‘stuff’ that scouts love, but he always gets the job done. The New York-Pennsylvania league was a joke, as Alvarez didn’t allow a run in nineteen innings. The team will likely push Alvarez, who could end up in AA this season.

    CHICAGO: Bobby Brownlie (RHP): Already somewhat of a prospect, I am under the belief that Brownlie is ready to explode. Had it not been for arm fatigueness, Brownlie was a lock for a top five pick, instead dropping more than twenty choices to the Chicago Cubs. Brownlie has one of the better curveballs in the minor leagues, and also changes speeds pretty well. He’s an injury concern, but the Cubs gave him the last month of the season off, he’d been playing for eight months straight. Brownlie could catapult threw Cubs’ rankings this year, don’t be surprised if he ends up #1 next year.

    WHITE SOX: Antoin Gray (2B): Rickie Weeks got all the attention at Southern, but his infield mate Gray also competed for the national batting average title. Gray was stuck in the hot corner while at Southern, although the White Sox believe he is better suited for second base. It’s very possible that Gray gets some big power and becomes this year’s version of Josh Barfield, appearing on every prospect list available a year from now.

    CINCINNATI: Rainer Feliz (RHP): It might be early to call Feliz a prospect, but I’m always wary of a 6-5 right-hander coming from the Dominican Republic. Not surprisingly, Feliz could use some more weight, although his velocity is already in the low-90s. Feliz will be in the Midwest League this year, and could very well have a Merkin Valdez-like breakout. He really only needs to throw two pitches, a fastball and a filthy slider. Like Valdez, Felix should be a borderline top fifty prospect in a year’s time.

    CLEVELAND: Jason Cooper (OF): Not many people noticed it, but ex-Stanford outfielder Jason Cooper was sensational for Cleveland last year. His batting average about .300, and OBP above .380, and a sensational .542 slugging percentage. More than sixty extra-base hits. Cooper has big-time power, and at this point, projects to be the Indians left fielder of the future. Cooper will be in AA next year, where hopefully more people will recognize his power, and maybe he’ll get mentioned in prospect deabtes.

    COLORADO: Jeff Francis (LHP): I talked about Francis when I put him in my top 50, and I’ll talk about him again. He is a prospect right now, but underrated by many. I’m under the belief that Francis will be a top ten pitching prospect in baseball next year, he offered the whole package in high-A last year. Francis was 10-1, 1.06 in his last thirteen starts, and is a dominating force on the mound. His future isn’t that bright due to Coors Field, but I expect Francis to be larger than Chin-Hui Tsao at this time next year.

    DETROIT: Kenny Baugh (RHP): Once again, I could just be overrating Baugh based on his college...heavily renowned Rice University. Baugh was the ace there in his time, leading the nation in PAP, which ultimately led to arm problems. His ability to throw a good fastball will seperate him from being good and being bad, but Baugh could be huge for the Tigers as early as this season.

    FLORIDA: Jeff Allison (RHP): Yes, he’s in the Baseball America top 100. But have you seen this kid’s minor league numbers? Yikes. Allison was sensational last year, making only one pitfall, hiring Scott Boras. Kid’s don’t realize that signing with Boras lowers their draft stock, which then decreases their value Allison would have been a top five choice had it not been Boras, but hey, $252 million is an intimidating number. Not often will I call high schoolers to become stars, but Allison, like Kerry Wood before him, is a special exception.

    HOUSTON: Fernando Nieve (RHP): I hate praising Houston, but not many teams have been better at recognizing the small market for small pitchers. Nieve is not tall, but instead has sensational movement on his fastball. His peripheral numbers were much better than his ERA last season, and Nieve could break out big in high Class A this year.

    KANSAS CITY: Brian Bass (RHP): I have fallen victim to Dayn Perry’s research, as I devalue the strikeout category in my mind much more than it used to be. If his research proves true than Bass could be a good starter, as a low H/9, HR/9 and a good groundball ratio were some of Bass’ attributes last season. He will be 22 this season, so it’s important to really define himself with a good AA season. If he has a good year than Allain Baird will have no choice but to hand the right-hander a spot alongside Greinke in 2005.

    LOS ANGELES: Delwyn Young (2B): Screw Victor Diaz, has anyone seen Young’s 2003 statistics? Sixty extra-base hits including fifteen home runs, and an OBP above .380. Young struggles at defense, but the Dodgers are hoping that he’ll stick at the position, where he could become one of baseball’s better 2B prospects. Young has good contact skills, walks a little bit, and has big-time power. I’m excited how Vero Beach goes for Young, he could be a DePodesta favorite by next winter.

    That’s all for today, as usual, leave any comments you can...

    WTNYMarch 04, 2004
    Break Out! Part 2
    By Bryan Smith

    I’m not going to touch the steroids issue, instead letting some of my esteemed colleagues handle that. Instead, I want to point you to the All-Baseball homepage, where we have added a new ‘feature’ if you will. Christian has put up the top entries of the offseason for each of the All-Baseball sites, so I highly recommend walking down memory lane and reading some of our favorite posts, there’s a lot of good writing here.

    Today I’m going to handle my top 10 potential breakout pitchers, after handling the hitters yesterday.

    Adam Eaton- RHP- Padres- Last season was Eaton’s first full year back from arm surgery, and he was at times dazzling. I love pitchers that post sub-9.00 H/9 ratios, and barely ever draft anyone who succeeds that margin. I truly believe that control can be learned, and while Eaton’s 1.32WHIP is a little high, you should see a decline this year. While he won’t have the friendly confines of Qualcomm anymore, Eaton should take a big step forward this year. Do not be surprised if Eaton is the best Padre pitcher by year’s end.

    Jeff Weaver- RHP- Dodgers- In Peter Gammons latest, he quotes Gabe Kapler mentioning Jeff Weaver in the NL Cy Young race. Pat Jordan in an interview with Alex Belth last year said, “Weaver is a fucking wimp...Weaver has good stuff.” No one questions this kid’s pitching ability, instead they question his head. Jeff has always gotten mad after giving up a home run, a trend that should greatly decrease in Dodger Stadium this year. The pressure is off Weaver, he’s close to his brother, and in a huge stadium. An ERA under 4.00 is almost a certainty.

    Carl Pavano- RHP- Marlins- I know that Beckett and Penny left baseball fans breathless in the playoffs this year, but I was equally impressed by Carl Pavano. Seventeen hits in nineteen and one-third innings with fifteen strikeouts, 3 walks, and a 1.40ERA. Finally, the man once traded for Pedro starts to make himself worth something. Pavano is an imposing character at 6-5, 235, and his sinker is impressive. He really struggled outside of Pro Player Stadium, and I think his road ERA should go down from 5.51. My guess is that Pavano finishes with an ERA in the 4.00 range with about 150 strikeouts.

    Victor Zambrano- RHP- Devil Rays- Is Bryan really putting the 2003 walks leader on his breakout list? Yes. Zambrano’s H/9 was extremely low last year, keeping his WHIP under 1.50. I would like him a lot more if his K/9 was over seven, but hey, I’m reaching here. Zambrano has filthy stuff, but Piniella and company need to teach him to keep that under wraps. I'm also worried about the fact that Zambrano has been named Opening Day starter, which means he’ll be facing the opposing aces...a lot of losses. But if you need an innings-eater who could provide a low ERA, some strikeouts, and one helluva H/9, Zambrano is a good late-round pick.

    Jose Contreras- RHP- Yankees- There’s only one real worry about Contreras...health. El Duque has proven to us that Cuban pitchers aren’t the most durable of source, despite being great hurlers. The rest about Contreras I love, especially his stuff. I caught his September domination of the White Sox on TV and was wowed, saying Contreras had better stuff than any other Yankee. Contreras’ ERA while starting was only 2.34, his WHIP 0.99, and a K/9 right around 9.00. He’ll get very good run support, and will be facing pitchers at the back end of their rotations. He’s worth a mid-round pick for sure.

    Jeremy Affeldt- LHP- Royals- Watch Jeremy Affeldt, and you wouldn’t believe he’s not a superstar. His curve is one of the best in the Major Leagues, but like Josh Beckett before him, is really struggling with blisters. If this problem goes away, and Kansas City brass believes it has, Affeldt would turn into the best Royal starter immediately. He’s a real stud, and if he’s not starting he could get closing opportunities. After watching him in an interleague game against the Diamondbacks, I’m hooked.


    Matt Riley- LHP- Orioles- Definitely in the running for AL Rookie of the Year, Riley was listed even before hot prospect Greg Miller on the Baseball Prospectus top 50. An injury looked like it ruined Riley’s prospect status two years ago, but he’s back on the scene. Riley dominated the Eastern League last year, a K/9 over 9.00 and a WHIP under 1.10. His peripheral numbers looked good in AAA, although in both cases his ERA wasn’t that great. I’m not fond on the thought of drafting rookies, but Riley could rack up strikeouts in the Baltimore rotation this year, keep an eye on him.

    Jake Peavy- RHP- Padres- This seems to be a pretty consensus choice around the Internet. Peavy is another player that will have to learn control to take it to the next level, but he also has one either monumental problem: he gives up home runs. Last year Peavy allowed 33 home runs, and this was with half his games being in Qualcomm Stadium. That fallback option is gone this year, and Peavy will have to learn to keep his stuff down. I love the batting average against and K/9 though, and more often than not, that will indicate a player about to fly through the roof.

    Cliff Lee- LHP- Indians- Another example of me being mystified in person, watching one of Lee’s September starts caught me by surprise. I had listened to Gammons call Lee the key to the Colon trade, but never really believed it. Well that is until now. Lee handled his 50+ Major League inning trial very well, and is one of the few locks for the Indians’ rotation this year. He tired a bit in September, seeing his BB rate jump extremely high. That shouldn’t happen this year, Lee will be able to keep the walks to a minimum. It’s too bad he doesn’t qualify as a prospect anymore, or he’d be high in the running for Rookie of the Year.

    Oliver Perez- LHP- Pittsburgh Pirates- I’ll never forget reading a Barry Bonds quote calling Oliver Perez one of the best young left-handers he’s seen in awhile. When the greatest hitter in the game says something like that, it sticks with you. Perez was the key to the Brian Giles trade, and will be the Pirates third starter this season. His K/9 was above 10.00 last year, which should leave you drooling. Twenty-two home runs in less than 130 innings is WAY too many, but a majority of those came in a very rusty April. Watching Perez in Spring Training will be key, because there will be no room for him on your fantasy team with another 8.00 April ERA.

    That’s my wrap-up of pitching breakout players. Leave your suggestions in the comments.

    For now, and for what could be a daily occurrence on my site, I’m going to look at the Spring Training box scores, and specifically how things are going for prospects. Yesterday was the first head-to-head game of the year, which should be celebrated as a holiday. For play-by-play analysis I’ll turn it to Aaron Gleeman, but this is how the prospects did yesterday:

    - First of all, big props to James Loney. Three for three, seven total bases, one home run. He struggled with a wrist injury last year, but this is a nice way to tell his critics that his problem is long gone. Loney has no chance to make the team, but hey, maybe he could be the 2004 version of Miguel Cabrera?
    - Also in that game was Jeremy Griffiths, the Mets pitcher who didn’t suffer a fate so good. In a battle with Aaron Heilman and Scott Erickson for the last rotation spot, Griffiths planted himself in last by being charged with six earned runs in one-third of an inning. Not a great way to impress the new pitching coach Jeremy.
    - Not much to report in Atlanta’s game against University of Georgia. Adam LaRoche had two hits, Brett Evert threw two nice innings, J.D. Drew went yard.
    - Bobby Hill going yard for Pittsburgh? Great to see, especially since Freddy Sanchez recently got injured. If Hill has a good spring he’ll start the season where he should have been a year ago, on a Major League roster.
    - The Marlins almost lost to a college team. Sigh.

    WTNYMarch 03, 2004
    Break Out!
    By Bryan Smith

    I have fear that this entry will leave me a little exposed. See I’m in two fantasy leagues, and stating my breakout picks before a draft might be stupid. But I’ve received requests for breakout choices, and for that reason I will respond. Some of these choices I’m much more confident with than others, but building a list of twenty potential breakout players is not easy. I’m not going to find the next Podsednik here, but drafting a player like that would be stupid anyway.

    Today...the Hitters

    Brad Wilkerson- OF- Montreal- This is assuming a couple of things. I’m hoping Frank Robinson can realize that Wilkerson is not built for the leadoff role, and is not built for centerfield. Being in those two spots could potentially decrease offensive numbers, as it’s more added stress for the player. Wilkerson is one of the bright young hitters in the game, mixing fine on-base skills with developing power. He’s not very far from thirty home runs, a goal I see him accomplishing in the next two seasons. A fantastic low round selection, I’d hate to miss out on a big Wilkerson 2004.

    Aaron Miles- 2B- Colorado- Second base, 27, Coors Field. Southern League MVP, International League Rookie of the Year. Throw those five numbers together and what do you have? A fine sleeper choice in the NL West. Miles is a must for the Rockie second base job, although don’t be suprised if Clint Hurdle is awed by Damian Jackson. Miles is good for an OBP of about .350, forty extra base hits (primarily doubles), and about ten steals. OBP and XBH leagues will value him higher than the traditional 5x5 league, but he’s worth a late round selection in either instance.

    Josh Phelps- DH- Toronto- I’ve never been a big believer in curses (I’m a Cubs fan), so I just can’t buy the Baseball Prospectus cover curse. Phelps will turn 26 in May, and his OPS topped .900 in the second half. He could rake the ball in the minor leagues, and that should start to translate very soon. I once predicted 40 home runs, and while I won’t back down from my prediction, it should be more like 30 this year. It’s too bad Phelps isn’t qualifying at catcher anymore, otherwise he’d be owned in 100% of fantasy leagues. As it stands, his DH position won’t do much, but I think you could do worse than thirty homers in your utility role, don’t you?

    Joe Crede- 3B- White Sox- If you can’t tell, I’m a big believer in two things: minor league numbers and second half performance. Crede has numerous MVP trophies from his days in the minor leagues, and I expect a big bounce back from his Sophomore slump this year. In fact, Crede is a much better bet to make it back to form than 1B Paul Konerko. After a disastrous .625OPS in the first half last year, Crede was .892 the rest of the way. He had ten more extra-base hits in the second half, and I would expect something like .280-25-90 this year, so think about him as a corner infielder for sure.

    Milton Bradley- OF- Cleveland- I understand the argument that Bradley’s coming out party was in 2003, but I think that he’ll only grow from his performance. Injuries and speeding violations forced him to not eclipse the 400AB mark, so his fantasy numbers were reasonably low. But remember, he stole 17 bases last year, and some of his 34 doubles should start to head over the wall. Bradley is the opposite of most of my selections (worse 2nd half, sketchy minor league career), but he’s too talented to be forgotten. A 20/20 year is always valuable, and Bradley will be one of the key reasons the Indians make a hard run at third place.

    Travis Hafner- 1B- Cleveland- I’ll be honest. In trying to pick an unlikely Rookie of the Year winner a year ago, I chose Hafner. He was coming off a fantastic 2002 minor league season, and was basically handed a Major League job. Hafner had an absolutely dreadful first half (.229/.289/.423), and an even worse April (.167/.244/.359). Yet despite all this, his OPS managed to top .800. Hafner reminds me a lot of Aubrey Huff, minus the athleticism. Six hundred plate appearances means about thirty home runs, yet Hafner may struggle to be trusted with an every day job due to his nasty platoon splits: .629OPS vs. LH.

    Jason Phillips- C/1B- Mets- There’s not a considerable amount of power here, but Phillips has talent. He’s Paul Lo Duca-ish, and should post high averages with fairly low home run totals. He’s young, so the yearly HR totals may rise, but I doubt Phillips will ever top 25. Instead, he’ll post batting averages that are consistently at .300, well, until Justin Huber comes and steals his everyday job. Phillips was drastically better in Shea last season, a problem that sometimes happens to rookies. That should change in 2004, and Phillips’ numbers (at catcher!) should start to rise.

    Eric Hinske- 3B- Toronto- Is it possible to call an ex-Rookie of the Year a sleeper? I really do believe Hinske belongs on this list, simply because he’s been forgotten in a fairly deep third base class. I did think Hinske’s home run total was a little high his rookie season, but I didn’t think it would be halved. Some of those forty-five doubles will be a little longer this season, boosting Hinske’s HR number back to about 20. He has to be better than a .240 hitter, and should regress into the .270s or .280s this year. He remains one of the best basestealers in the game today, although Carlos Tosca limits how much Hinske is allowed to run. Just how great is a 15/15 season? Ehh...I’d take Crede first.

    Eric Munson- 3B- Detroit- If your league counts OBP, skip this guy. If you’re not in an AL-only league, skip this guy. But besides that, be introduced to Eric Munson. In only ninety-nine games last year Munson hit eighteen home runs, a testament to his 500-foot power. He remains pretty weak to southpaws, but Alan Trammell should give the kid a chance. If I was in an AL-only league, Munson would be a good choice, more worthy of a draft choice than even Melvin Mora (when ignoring the SS eligibility factor).

    Keith Ginter- 2B- Milwaukee- This kid reminds me more and more of Marcus Giles every time I look at him. He’s in a competition with Junior Spivey right now, but just like the Oriole 2B twins, they should be split up before Opening Day. Ginter hit 14 home runs in limited action last year, and is a perfect selection in OBP leagues. Ginter’s power started to blossom after the All-Star Break last season, so 20-25 HR this year isn’t out of the picture. Hopefully Ned Yost is smart enough to realize Ginter is the perfect two-hole hitter, but I don’t anticipate that happening any time soon.

    That list of 10 was it for today. Who do you think will breakout next year? Leave it in the comments...

    Finally, I want to touch on a piece a reader pointed me to yesterday in the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Terence Moore wrote his newest piece on Ken Griffey Jr...

    Consider this: They should switch Chipper Jones from left field back to third base, where he wasn't bad. In fact, he was good at that position, give or take a botched grounder or three. They should put newcomer J.D. Drew in left, and they should move the wonderful glove, arm and instincts of Andruw Jones from center to right.

    And in center?

    Ken Griffey Jr.

    First of all, this is a terrible idea. Chipper is disastrous in both positions, and Andruw is ten times more valuable in center than Griffey. And even if the team were going to think about this, Griffey’s contract would pose a bit of a problem:

    2004: $12.5M
    2005: $12.5M
    2006: $12.5M
    2007: $12.5M
    2008: $12.5M
    2009: $4M buyout

    If the team wouldn’t give Gary Sheffield a three-year deal for a little more money, why would they get Griffey for five years? Griffey is way too risky to acquire, and asking three prominent players to switch positions in Spring Training is a bad idea. A few more of my favorite quotes:

    - “Barring Yankee Stadium sliding into the East River by opening day, Griffey will add to Steinbrenner's collection of elites.” And why does Moore say this? He claims it’s “Just a hunch.” Good investigative journalism.
    - “Steinbrenner knows that Griffey’s injury situation is a fluke.” What? Are you kidding me? Griffey has a chronic injury, and as Will Carroll points out in an interview at Red’s Daily, “If he's a step faster, he doesn't dive and hurt his shoulder.” Griffey’s injury is hardly a fluke, it’s a major concern.
    - And why all the thought that “Griffey likes the Yankees”? Isn’t this the same guy that received hundreds of death threats after declining a trade to New York?

    Poorly written article, not as well thought out as a columnist should be. But I won’t continue my criticism, Aaron Gleeman’s better at that than I am.

    Editor's Note- Shortly after writing this article, I find the irony that Gleeman spent his whole piece today bashing Moore. Who knew?

    WTNYMarch 02, 2004
    Preview: Expos
    By Bryan Smith

    After a day of perusing the Internet, I’m back into preview/review mode. Today is the Expos, and for explanation on how I’m doing my previews, see this link. Enjoy...

    It looked as if Vladimir Guerrero moving to another franchise was the beginning of the Expos demise. And while the team landed in last place this year, there is hope for the future. This is largely because the team holds two of the brightest young hitters in the game, Brad Wilkerson and Nick Johnson. Losing Jose Vidro hurts, but the team remains optimistic about Orlando Cabrera.

    Before the season, the Expos were looking to improve these positions to help for the loss of Vlad:

    1B 2003: .274/.343/.448
    3B 2003: .230/.298/.331
    LF 2003: .261/.336/.426
    CF 2003: .246/.305/.351

    Johnson and Wilkerson just destroyed the first base and left field categories in 2004, allowing Batista and Sledge to have average years. We should have suspected this from Johnson and Wilkerson as their previous patience numbers (see AtR) showed. Wilkerson walks, finally developed power, and has no platoon split. Johnson is the demi-God of walks, and though he couldn’t top 450 at-bats, still showed considerable power.

    At the beginning of the year, Montreal was having success with this lineup:

    1. Vidro- 2B
    2. Cabrera- SS
    3. Johnson- 1B
    4. Everett- RF
    5. Wilkerson- LF
    6. Batista- 3B
    7. Sledge- CF
    8. Schneider- C

    Vidro really did make sense in the leadoff slot, despite having one of the better slugging percentages for Major League 2B. Much of Vidro’s SLG is derived from his exorbitant amount of doubles, which works wonders in the leadoff hole. After only 16 home runs this year, Vidro has topped twenty home runs only once, but is consistently above forty doubles. Couple that with an OBP guaranteed to be above .380 and you have a fantastic leadoff man.

    This really made Vidro attractive to Paul DePodesta in Los Angeles, who beat out the Cashmans, Epsteins, and Hendrys to nab one of the league’s best 2B. And just for Joel Hanrahan and Joel Guzman? It was a steal for the new Dodger GM for sure, but not nearly enough to take the NL West.

    Omar Minaya decided to keep Orlando Cabrera, largely because he’s voiced his desire to remain an Expo so loudly. With the recent rumors that Robert Johnson will buy the team in a month’s time, Cabrera might be in for some big cash. With a 20/20 year in his belt, Cabrera is one of the six best SS in the game, a high compliment considering the likes of Tejada, Nomar, Jeter, Renteria, and Furcal are in this debate. And wow, it’s still weird to write that without A-Rod.

    While the offense managed to improve, it was the pitching that took a drastic step down in 2004. The team was really hoping Livan Hernandez would yield more that a mid-level prospect at the deadline, but the White Sox were really the ones dangling prospects. The Expos were hoping that Claudio Vargas would build upon his 2003 season, but instead he took a giant leap backwards into the 5.00s.

    Will Tomo Ohka ever return to his 2002 self? Apparently not. I think the Expos would be best to get out of that situation ASAP. Tony Armas doesn’t look like he’ll ever touch his potential, but sadly, he was the Expos top starter in 2004. Zach Day’s depressing 5.00 K/9 really makes the Milton Bradley trade look like a Shapiro steal. Hanrahan was impressive in August and September, and he’s the probable bet for best Expo starter in 2005.

    The bullpen went through spurts, and struggled early with Frank Robinson’s stuborness to take Rocky Biddle out of the closer’s role. It was obvious from day one that Chad Cordero was the best fit for the job, but Robinson felt it necessary to ignore every peripheral number out there, and go with the experienced veteran. Did this guy really play under Earl Weaver?

    Luis Ayala remains a nice groundball threat in the bullpen, but Joey Eischen has been deemed worthless. I’m a big Dan Smith fan, but a seller of T.K. Tucker. Randy Choate may after all turn into a decent LOOGY, but hey, even Eischen looked good once.

    Of all Major League Baseball’s upcoming workload, getting rid of the Expos should be priority number one. Selling Robert Johnson the team, and then moving it to Washington is well worth the relocation fee that Peter Angelos would get. But if this team could possibly keep Orlando Cabrera, that would be great. Omar Minaya’s done a good job with what he’s been given, and I hope the team at least gives him a chance for the GM slot. Now Frank Robinson on the other hand...

    See anything good around the Internet lately, drop it in the comments. Also, what’s the consensus on an Expo finish?

    WTNYMarch 01, 2004
    Lookin' Around
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey, anyone else got a case of the Mondays? Maybe it was from staying up and watching the Oscars, which after 6 or so Lord of the Rings victories got me a little upset. Forgive me for liking Billy Crystal, and wow, did you see Julia Roberts or Jennifer Garner? That’s enough Oscar talk for a year, last time I checked, I wrote about baseball here.

    Today I’ll run through what I’m reading on the Internet, as it’s been an interesting week. I’m thinking about changing my sidebar to the articles I’ve noticed around the Internet, pointing to good articles rather than good sites. Thoughts?

    First, I have to give some props to Alex Belth. Not only is he one of the best writers on the Internet, but last week showed that he can call the shots behind the scenes as well. Belth put together a week worth of Yankees previews that was sensational, one of the best ways to preview a team I’ve ever seen. My personal favorite article was Rich Lederer and Belth’s take on Bernie Williams and Derek Jeter, but I recommend going back and perusing each article.

    To conclude his preview, Belth has put together an All-Star cast of writers to give their thoughts on the Yankees hottest topics. The fact that Belth can get two New York writers, the head Propsectus columnist, and an ESPN writer in the same group (not to mention Larry Mahnken!) says a lot about the growing power of us ‘amateur’ writers.

    Diving more into that topic, Belth was the feature of a Journal News story this weekend entitled “A growing sports voice.” This talks about the best New York sites around the Internet, and also quotes a media columnist as saying, “Blogs are only going to get more popular.” Let’s hope so.

    Also mentioned in that article is Aaron Gleeman, a necessary mention when talking about baseball blogs. I really enjoyed a series Gleeman put together last week judging his 2003 top 50 prospect list. Gleeman comes to recognize that he underrated ten players, overrated sixteen players, and was ‘neutral’ on twenty-four selections. Fun group of articles, I can’t wait to do the same on my top 50.

    Speaking of minor league rankings, Baseball America unleashed their top 100 last week. After reading their list, I wanted to compare my top 50 to that of BA, Baseball Propsectus, and The Minors First. Here are my findings:


    Site Same Ranking Within One Different Players
    BA 6 4 9
    BP 1 1 11
    TMF 5 3 8

    I was most similar to Baseball America, where we had Mauer (1), Upton (2), Barfield (20), Guzman (26), McPherson (33), and Wagner (46) all ranked equally. Of our nine different selections, three of their players (Kyle Sleeth, Kaz Matsui, Jeff Allison) didn’t fit my criteria. As expected, me and Baseball Prospectus differed greatly, although many of the selections are similar. I won’t rehash my comments on their rankings, but believe me, they’re smarter men than me. Finally, it’s apparent me and Mike Gullo see things eye-to-eye. We ranked Mauer, Kazmir (14), Young (17), Hardy (25), and McPherson (33) equally. I guess we’ll see how everyone did come September.

    In Cubs news, the team spent the weekend locking up a couple of integral pieces of their future. Derrek Lee signed a three-year, $22.5M deal, less than what I expected he would make. Kerry Wood, my most favorite player in the game, signed three years, $32.5M deal, with an option that should get picked up at the end. I’m convinced that Jim Hendry is a good GM, and I was impressed by both these comments. Wood came out way under Colon, about equal to Roy Halladay, and a bit below Javier Vazquez. Glad to see both these guys are staying in Chicago.

    What does this mean for 2005? The Cubs are quickly signing players, and will have very few holes next year. The rotation should replace Matt Clement with Angel Guzman, and Hendry won’t have many holes in the bullpen to path. The offense will be open at catcher, second base, shortstop, and left field. Brendan Harris appears to be the logical choice for second, and Dave Kelton or Jason Dubois could handle left. At shortstop? How about Orlando Cabrera?

    Will Carroll wrote his latest THR on the Cubs, and while I won’t comment too much (it’s Premium content), I was pretty happy. No reds is nice, but it looks to be an exorbitant amount of yellows. My bet is that Alou and Zambrano miss time, but I don’t think anyone else will. Prior and Maddux? I’d hate to jinx them…but no way. The multi-tasking Carroll also appeared for an interview at the Futility Infielder, talking up his Yankees THR. It’s a nice run-through for Yankees fans, and while I hate giving you guys a plug, I just can’t seem to avoid it.

    Speaking of the Yankees, in Gammons’ latest, he gives an El Duque update:


    Orlando Hernandez threw "considerably better" this week in a private showing for Boston on Wednesday and a public showing Friday for several teams. He still is three to four weeks from being ready to pitch in games, but there is genuine interest. "It's coming down to the Yankees and Red Sox," says one source close to El Duque. "We may have a good idea Monday." El Duque is still close to Boston bullpen coach Euclides Rojas, who was a star reliever for Industriales and the Cuban National team when Hernandez broke in with both. They have remained friends for many years.

    It makes more sense for the Yankees to sign him, as Contreras, Lieber, and Brown all have injury concerns tied to them. Who knows if El Duque can provide anything for a Major League team anymore, but he’s better George insurance than a youngster like Jorge De Paula.

    Also in the Gammons article…


    The Twins are in the market for a starting pitcher, and will talk about Jacque Jones. That began some Jones-Kazuhisa Ishii rumors, which would force the Dodgers to take on $1.9 million this season.

    Los Angeles desperately needs to add more offense, as Rich Lederer showed us this weekend. I always shunned upon the Juan Encarnacion acquisition, but I didn’t know he was a top ten out producer. Yikes. The Dodgers are a shoo-in for the league’s worst offense, and the reason they won’t finish top three in the NL West. But hey, there’s always Edwin Jackson and Greg Millder to fall back on.

    Finally, without transition, there are two more articles around the Internet that caught my fancy. First was the Baseball Savant’s long look at the Braves 12-year run, a history lesson worth reading. Lastly is Jonah Keri’s interview of Bill Bavasi, the Mariner’s GM quickly becoming the worst GM in baseball. Keri pins him in the corner about the Raul Ibanez signing, and as usual, gets good content from a GM.

    That’s all for today, I’ll be back tomorrow with an Expo preview…

    WTNYFebruary 27, 2004
    The Explanation of My Antics
    By Bryan Smith

    For those of us that write baseball, Spring Training is a way to not worry about topics for a month. Why? Previews. Everyone tries ‘em. From Gammons to Gleeman, from Prospectus to Primer, an average reader will sort through more thoughts on the Detroit Tigers RF situation than they could have ever dreamt about.

    Yes, I will be joining the hoards of writers and produce my own preview of each team. But, this site is different than your average weblog, and I wanted my previews to uphold that principle. With that being said, the simplest explanation of my preview series is this: a review of the 2004 season. I will be writing from November, 2004, reminiscing on what the past season brought. My predictions will appear to be fact, as I run over the organization at both the Major and minor league levels, review mid-season acquisitions, and looking into the ‘upcoming’ offseason.

    I really like this idea, it should clearly depict what I try and do at Wait ‘Til Next Year: bring the future to you. The basis of this plan was kindly given to me by Aaron Gleeman, one of the best writers in the biz. I randomly selected the order that I will present the teams in, and it goes as follows:

    1. San Diego Padres
    2. Montreal Expos
    3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    4. San Francisco Giants
    5. Atlanta Braves
    6. Seattle Mariners
    7. Pittsburgh Pirates
    8. Los Angeles Dodgers
    9. Cleveland Indians
    10. Texas Rangers
    11. Kansas City Royals
    12. Cincinnati Reds
    13. Houston Astros
    14. Chicago White Sox
    15. St. Louis Cardinals
    16. New York Mets
    17. Baltimore Orioles
    18. Arizona Diamondbacks
    19. New York Yankees
    20. Oakland Athletics
    21. Toronto Blue Jays
    22. Anaheim Angels
    23. Chicago Cubs
    24. Milwaukee Brewers
    25. Detroit Tigers
    26. Minnesota Twins
    27. Boston Red Sox
    28. Philadelphia Phillies
    29. Florida Marlins
    30. Colorado Rockies

    Below you will find the first of the series, the San Diego Padres. Enjoy, and let me know how I can improve the series in the comments...

    WTNYFebruary 27, 2004
    Preview: Padres
    By Bryan Smith

    It seems like this had been Kevin Towers’ plan all along. Go to the World Series, wait five years, get a new stadium, and jump right back into the playoff race. After five years without topping .500, Towers jumped in at the NL West’s weakest time, narrowly being defeated by the San Francisco Giants for a playoff spot.

    The year is testament to Padre ownership, a group that has displayed a lot of trust in their employees in recent years. Few manager/GM combos have been in business longer than Towers and Bruce Bochy, despite .443 baseball in the last five seasons. They trusted Towers to put a winner on the field the year PETCO opened, and he did so. San Diego went out and acquired Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, Jay Payton, David Wells, and Akinori Ohtsuka in their chance at the NL West crown. And...it nearly worked.

    Giles forced his way onto the spotlight, jumping right back above the .600SLG mark. Giles struggled a bit in right field, but seems to have learned as the season went on. Giles is the third-best left-handed bat in the division, more of a testament to the players in his division than criticism of Giles. Jason Bay has helped to lessen the blow for Dave Littlefield, but hey, Towers only had to give up Steve Reed to nab Bay from the Mets.

    The rest of the offense was neither fantastic nor futile, with hitters neither surprising nor depressing Padre fans. Mark Loretta and Jay Payton both predictably dropped from their 2003 lines, but Klesko boosted back into form. Phil Nevin was injured for part of the season (again), but Xavier Nady is really starting to come around as a player. And while the Rey Ordonez expirament was laughable in April, Khalil Greene played well enough to take the two-spot from Loretta in the batting order. By year’s end, the Padres were looking at:

    1. Burroughs- 3B
    2. Greene- SS
    3. Giles- RF
    4. Nevin/Nady- 1B/LF
    5. Klesko- LF/1B
    6. Hernandez- C
    7. Payton- CF
    8. Loretta- C

    The bench, while filled with veterans, was hardly fantastic. Tom Wilson and Brian Buchanon proved to be the “southpaw bashers” that their scouting reports read, but throwing Jeff Cirillo and Ramon Vazquez at right-handers did little to strike fear in enemies’ hearts.

    Jake Peavy drew the majority of Padre hype before the season, as many people called for the right-hander to breakout. It was in fact Adam Eaton, the 26-year-old, that became the Padres best starter. Seldom noticed before the season, Eaton had the positive H/9 and K/9 indicators from the 2003 season. Two years removed from surgery, Eaton is not an injury concern anymore, his season was very similar to Kip Wells in 2003.

    What held Peavy back from stardom were the home runs allowed. He had allowed thirty-three in 2003, including 24 away from what was then Qualcomm Stadium. The spacious dimensions in San Diego were diminished, and Peavy gave up 35 homers this season. At 23, Peavy looks to have a few All-Star games coming down the road, but he must keep the ball down more. Brian Lawrence was very consistent in 2004, eating a lot of innings with an ERA just below league average. It’s unlikely that Lawrence will return to his 2002 form ever again.

    As for the veterans, not a lot can be said about Sterling Hitchcock. He won the job over Ismael Valdez in Spring Training, but did little other than contribute 170 innings of 4.50ERA. David Wells only got in twenty-five starts, but he was a very good influence on the team. He and Rod Beck have become fan favorites in San Diego, becoming well known for going out drinking with fans after games.

    Beck wasn’t expected to get any saves this year, so his 15 when Trevor Hoffman was shelved for a month went well. He stumbled more than 2003, but the team had the reinforcements this year. Hoffman was off and on, but seemed to get better as the year went on. Otsuka only was able to pitch sixty innings, but allowed only 48 hits while striking out 63. He was much better than Chicago Japanese pitcher Shingo Takatsu, who saw his peripheral numbers exposed on the South Side. The team was also pleased by the bounce back performance from Antonio Osuna, and Scott Linebrink contributed positively in middle relief. Kevin Towers tired of left-hander Kevin Walker, so he called up Mexican southpaw Edgar Huerta from AAA. Rusty Tucker also did a nice job during September in the LOOGY role.

    There were bits and pieces of this 2004 team that build a champion, but just simply not enough pieces of the puzzle. Ridding themselves of Mark Loretta and Phil Nevin is a good place to start, and Towers would be genius to land Jeff Kent to man second base. This lineup could really make noise in the NL West in 2005:

    1. Sean Burroughs
    2. Khalil Greene
    3. Brian Giles
    4. Jeff Kent
    5. Ryan Klesko
    6. Ramon Hernandez
    7. Xavier Nady
    8. Jay Payton

    Kent would need to accept a move in 2006 though, as that looks to be the time Josh Barfield will hit the Majors. Barfield topped fifty extra base hits again, though his batting average was a shade under .300. The Padres were pleased to see him walk more, he’s definitely their top prospect again. 2006 will also be the season that Freddy Guzman takes over in the leadoff slot and in centerfield, following another very promising season. Guzman, a switch-hitting centerfielder, has an OBP of .380 and seventy stolen bases between AA and AAA. The team will trade Jay Payton if Guzman really breaks out.

    You can’t talk prospects in San Diego without mentioning Jeff Niemann, the huge right-hander the team selected with the top overall choice. The rage over ‘hometown’ boy Jered Weaver and Niemann is still raging, and Rich Lederer can’t believe the Padres selection. But Niemann looks to be fantastic, a 6-9 pitcher that consistently throws in the high-90s. Yikes. It will be very important for this draft to work out, seeing as though Tim Stauffer appears to be the Dewon Brazelton of the 2004 draft. While Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, Kyle Sleeth are all enjoying success, Stauffer struggled greatly in his first year. His mediocre offerings didn’t go well in the California League, as his ERA reached the low 4.00s.

    The best Padre in the California League was the team’s third prospect, David Pauley. The short right-hander has a very good curveball, and improved the command that had plagued him in the past. With Barfield, Niemann, and Pauley, the Padres seem to have a good group for the future.

    A good attendance season in PETCO, ownership will raise payroll again for 2005. The team is very pleased that Kent’s option was declined by Houston, and figure to be one of the larger suitors. If I were GM, I would sign Kent to a three-year deal, with a mutual understanding that the latter two years will be spent at first base. The team should then trade Klesko next winter, creating this very solid team in 2006:

    C- Ramon Hernandez
    1B- Jeff Kent
    2B- Josh Barfield
    SS- Khalil Greene
    3B- Sean Burroughs
    LF- Xavier Nady
    CF- Freddy Guzman
    RF- Brian Giles

    Good times are ahead for San Diego. Towers and Bochy just might be able to keep their jobs another ten years...

    WTNYFebruary 26, 2004
    Off Day
    By Bryan Smith

    Won't be a long post today, my body is trying to fight off the sickness that plagues everyone I know. But I wanted to point around the Internet and give a few shout-outs before hitting the sack.

    First, while scanning the ESPN headlines on their baseball page yesterday, I was shocked when seeing the headline, "Jays: We'll re-sign Delgado at season's end." My ranking on Tuesday put Delgado in the second spot overall for 04-05 free agent hitters, and he'd likely slot in at number three overall.

    Earlier this winter J.P. Riccardi locked up Roy Halladay for four more seasons, at the average cost of $10.5M per season. Doug Pappas had the Toronto payroll listed at a shade over $51M last year, about $25M less than what it had been in 2001 and 2002. Delgado will likely sign a compareable deal to Jim Thome's six-year, $85M deal, bringing home about $15M per season. The team has signed Vernon Wells and Eric Hinske through their arbitration years, and the duo will make a little under six million dollars in 2005.

    Is it feasible for the Jays to spend $15M towards Delgado when the front office already has a tight budget? By my conclusions, yes. Besides the players I've already named. the Jays also have Miguel Batista (4.75M), Kerry Ligtenberg (2.50M), and Ted Lilly (3.10M) under contract for the 2005 season. That would bring the total up to a little under twenty-seven million dollars for three starters, two hitters, and one reliever. Add fifteen million dollars, and you're giving Riccardi $8-13M to spend on eighteen players.

    In 2005, the Jays will be adding new names to their roster. Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross and Guillermo Quiroz will all be regulars. Dustin McGowan will be in the rotation, and Jason Arnold will likely slot in middle relief. Players like Kevin Cash, Josh Phelps, Reed Johnson, and Aquilino Lopez will still be auto-renewable. By my estimations, those nine players should come at about $3M, giving Riccardi $10M to spend on nine players.

    Jays ownership, put the payroll at $55M in 2005. Re-sign one of the best hitters in baseball, and let the rookies take the field around him. Pretty soon, you'll have an improbable division winner on your hands.

    ***************************************

    I barely touched on the Baseball Prospectus top 50 list yesterday, and I wanted to jump deeper into it today. My thoughts on the list:

    - First of all, Greg Miller has no business down at number 33. I know Prospectus watches out for injuries and that Miller is a chief candidate, but look at the kid's numbers last year. He's got a great four pitch arsenal, and even if you can't put him ahead of Kazmir and Hamels, get him in front of Matt Riley!

    - Speaking of Hamels, Rany was nice enough to answer one of my questions in his chat, citing Hamels' once-broken arm as the reason for being so far behind Scott Kazmir. How can a performance-based site harp on an injury that obviously didn't hinder Hamels' numbers in 2003?

    - Russ Adams before Scott Hairston? Chris Snelling before Jason Bay? David Bush before Gavin Floyd or Angel Guzman? David DeJesus only two spots from Grady Sizemore? I know Prospectus has informal ties to the Blue Jays and have fans of the Mariners and Royals, but this list displays their affinities a little too clearly.

    I would love to have Rany drop-in and further explain the list for me, but that's for another day.

    *****************************

    While running through Rotoworld yesterday, I came across some nice news. First, Brandon Webb, the sensational sinker pitcher with the Diamondbacks, is planning on adding a cut fastball to his repertoire this year. Remember, it was the cutter that turned Esteban Loaiza's career, so if you see Webb late in a fantasy draft, nab him.

    Troy Glaus and Carlos Beltran are both talking about wanting to stay home, although neither seem to be desperate to get the deal done. Beltran will not give the club a hometown discount, and Glaus doesn't seem too preoccupied with his hazy future. Finally, it looks as if the Yankees will offer Pedro Astacio, and not Orlando Hernandez, a contract in case Jon Lieber's injured groin worsens.

    We'll be seeing ya tomorrow...

    WTNYFebruary 25, 2004
    04-05 Free Agent Pitchers
    By Bryan Smith

    I work hard not to have an East Coast bias in my writings (Hell, I’m a Central boy), but the Rivalry simply does have the most news. Yesterday, Shaun Powell of Newsday wrote an article entitled “Pedro, Nomar, Lowe: ’05 Yanks?” Readers of this site should not be blown away by this statement, I mean, I’ve stated that Pedro and Lowe are unlikely to return. Nomar should be back, and yesterday a Jayson Stark piece gave added insight to the Red Sox Pedro and Nomar situations.

    Each has one year left on contracts they seemed to sign back in some other lifetime. It once was hard to imagine the Red Sox without either of them, let alone both of them. But now that could happen. Easily.

    So there was Pedro on Tuesday, saying: "If they don't want to sign me, that's fine. I'm pretty sure I'll find a job with somebody else."

    And there was Nomar not even an hour later, talking about the prospect of not finishing his career in Boston, saying: "I'd definitely be hurt. I'd definitely be disappointed. ... But basically, I've dealt with that already. As far as I'm concerned, it was a done deal. I was shipped off to another team. So I don't know what the future holds."

    While this seemed to reaffirm my belief that Pedro was out the door and Nomar would stay, Garciaparra threw a few negative statements in as well.

    The state of Garciaparra's psyche has been a topic dancing all over the New England winter. It will be just as hot a topic all spring, all summer, all fall. No one doubts how hard he will play. But will he feel the same allegiance to a franchise that he clearly believes showed no allegiance to him last winter?

    "I probably feel how anyone would feel after playing his whole career in one organization and having to find out he was traded, or pretty much gone, over the television," Garciaparra said, bluntly. "How would you feel?"

    Asked how he reacted when he heard statements from the Red Sox that signing him to an extension was still their first priority, Garciaparra couldn't have acted more skeptical if he'd burst into uproarious laughter.

    "Everyone saw their actions (this winter)," he said, "pretty much on a daily basis. It was everywhere. You guys can answer that for yourself."

    If Nomar was to leave, I doubt he'd come to New York like Shaun Powell suggests, but rather back home in California. This leads me back to yesterday's article about post-2004 free agents that garnered some good feedback. Contrary to what my research had told me, Lance Berkman and Aramis Ramirez will not be free agents until after the 2005 season. Also, I missed Edgar Renteria, who likely would have appeared after Richie Sexson and before Jose Vidro. This would be my Edgar statement...

    6.5- Edgar Renteria, St. Louis, SS (78, 116, 131): It has taken a long time for Renteria to reach the bar that was set for him in Florida, but he has done it. I believe that Edgar Renteria is the fourth most valuable shortstop in the game, sitting right ahead of the revered Derek Jeter. Edgar runs, walks, and plays defense. He makes contact and hits for power. The Cardinals have spent a lot of money on the likes of Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols recently, but it would be wise to open their checkbook up once more.

    In yesterday's piece I also promised a run-through of the hitters that have 2005 options, and they are:

    - Jeff Kent (HOU): Chances are Houston will retain Kent for one last season, seeing as even decreased production is WAY above league average.
    - Bret Boone (SEA): For $8M, Seattle ownership shouldn't have a problem bringing the American League's best second basemen back.
    - Jeff Conine (FLA): Conine comes cheap, can play a couple of positions, and is a fan favorite in Miami. He'll be back.
    - Moises Alou (CHC): Any cost won't be worth an aging outfielder that PECOTA has hated for years.
    - Christian Guzman (MIN): Jason Bartlett should be taking over at short in 2005, but if he falters, the Twins may be forced to bring back Aaron Gleeman's least favorite SS.
    - Jermaine Dye (OAK): It's laughable that the A's would have to pay more than $10M to keep Dye, so I think it's safe to assume the underachieving right fielder will be on the open market next offseason.

    The rest of today's article will be devoted to the next free agent class of pitchers, but because the group isn't as deep as the hitters, the list only goes 15 deep (and oddly enough, all right-handed...ERA+ is attached).

    1. Pedro Martinez, Boston (189,196,212): Rich Lederer, a far smarter man than I when it comes to historical perspectives, once said that Pedro might be the best rate pitcher ever. In an article about Lefty Grove, Lederer shows tables of career ERA+, ERA vs. league average, and ERA as ratio of league average in which Pedro completely dominates. While people complain that he can't go far into games, Pedro is the best five-inning pitcher I've ever seen...and that has to be worth something. Who will pay, if not the Yankees, is a question I can't answer.

    2. Kerry Wood, Chicago (126,110,133): Forever I will be mystified by a spring start in 1998. I've watched a lot of baseball in my time, but Kerry Wood's 20K game against the Astros was the best ever. While his slider doesn't bite quite as hard as it once did, Wood is still one of the top-3 strikeout pitchers in the game today. I'll pray that the Cubs recent talks with Wood's agents represent that a deal will get done, and I'm optimistic. People say he'd like to go to Texas, but he's got things good on the North Side.

    3. Matt Morris, St. Louis (137,114,111): With the recent feudings between Morris and my Cubbies, I was thinking about not including this guy at all, but that just wouldn't be fair to my readers. Morris has worsened a bit in each of his three seasons back from injury, but he's still a helluva pitcher. The K/9 rate is a worry for sure (stay away in fantasy leagues), but I would watch that curveball all day if I could. He's enticing, and frustrated with the Cardinals. But they need pitching, and Jocketty is more apt to spend available dough on Morris than Renteria.

    4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees (191,160,265): When healthy, Rivera is still one of the best three closers in the game. Mariano hasn't walked more than 12 in a season since 2000, and his ERA hasn't touched 3.00 since he was a starter. Rivera is one of the best things to ever happen to the Yankees, and talks are already under way to re-sign him. This will get done, and on Mariano's terms, he's earned that much.

    5. Kevin Millwood, Phillies (102,127,103): Kevin was very lucky the Phils offered arbitration this past year, allowing Millwood to nab one more eight figure salary. While he's talented, I just don't see that in his future. 2002 vs. 2003 proves that he needs a big field to work with, but he's not the player that Halladay, Vazquez, or Wood is. Atlanta might be interested, and Turner Field seemed to work well for everyone involved.

    6. Esteban Loaiza, White Sox (95,78,155): There hasn't been a larger breakout in my memory than Loaiza, who went from a 'never been' to a Cy Young candidate in one year flat. His cut fastball worked wonders, but you can't help but think negative thoughts about Loaiza's 2004. Jerry Reinsdorf hates to sign pitchers to long-term deals, and players like Jaime Navarro and Jack McDowell have only reinforced that philosophy. Unless he takes another two-year deal, Loaiza won't be a Chicagoan in 2005.

    7. Livan Hernandez, Expos (77,86,155): Look at the ERA+ of Hernandez and Loaiza, they are mindboggling. Hernandez was actually less of a bet to breakout, but when he did, matched Esteban step-for-step. Hernandez has pitched at least 215 innings in five of the last six seasons, but things are clicking again. He's a very good pitcher, and like most Expos, as good of a bet as anyone to be traded midseason when the contenders come calling.

    8. Troy Percival, Anaheim (179,226,123): I'm going to go out on a limb and say that moving to the mound was a good decision for Percival. Troy has been a great pitcher during his career, but I was shocked to learn that only four have his nine seasons his ERA has been below 3.00. The K/9 has always been fantastic, which is likely the reason my mind overvalued him. The Angels would be smart to let him walk and to give the closer's role to Francisco Rodriguez, Brendan Donnelly, or even Bobby Jenks.

    9. Derek Lowe, Boston (128,171,105): I once heard that no one else in the league throws their sinker like Lowe, probably the reason he's had such success with the pitch. He's a great innings-eater, but his performance has been less than what people give him credit for. He's the type of player Dan O'Dowd should spend eight million per season on, and the player that Theo Epstein would pass on. Both those hypotheticals are plausible, definitly more so than the Yankees.

    10. Russ Ortiz, Atlanta (122,105,109): Not many players can have such success while walking so many, but Ortiz has done it for three years running. Like other players on this list, he's good for 200 innings, but that can only do so much. I have this feeling that one season is just going to be ugly, maybe once he gets out of stadiums like Turner Field and Pac Bell. We might get to see if I'm write in 2005, but that would involve a John Scheurholtz pass.

    11. Matt Clement, Cubbies (84,112,103): His pitching history isn't filled with wonderful statistics, but Clement has the ability to shoot up this list in a hurry. It looked like Larry Rothschild had helped him turn the page in 2002, just to have more inconsistency in 2003. This year will be big for Clement to prove that he's worth the billing, but I just don't see him returning to Chicago. Instead, I anticipate the Rangers to get their second choice, but yet another Cub.

    12. Freddy Garcia, Mariners (138,96,98): Maybe Freddy will never be better than he was in 2001, but it's important for Garcia to prove he's above a league average pitcher. The guys at U.S.S. Mariner pointed out last September that Pat Borders seemed to work wonders with the right-hander, and I'm anxious to see if he'll carry his success into this season. The Mariners are a lost cause, and their frustration may lead to a midseason exit for Garcia.

    13. Hideo Nomo, Dodgers (101,112,130): I'm not so sure if Nomo could possibly ever have this kind of success outside of Dodger Stadium, but I'm not sure that we'll again be able to test that notion. There have been times each of the last two years that Nomo has just led the staff for a good month or so, using the park to his advantage. He isn't quite as fun to watch as he was in 1995, but he's just about as effective.

    14. Carl Pavano, Marlins (73,79,94): Like Orlando Cabrera yesterday, just because he's never topped 100 before (except in 97 innings in 2000) doesn't mean he'll never do it. Pavano has been highly touted since he was a young Expo, and one of the few players that can say they were traded for the first player on this list. He showed good stuff in the playoffs, causing many teams to call Florida this winter. The team chose to lose Mark Redman instead of Pavano, but I don't think they'll keep him next winter. The Red Sox and Rangers both make sense here...buy low, sell high.

    15. Kris Benson, Pirates (119,92,85): What can I say, I'm a believer? Benson was the top overall pick in the 1996 draft, but has hardly justified the selection as of yet. The Pirates will let him go after 2005, and probably right around the All-Star Break. He has tons of potential, and if he can stay away from the DL, might make some noise somewhere. Yes, I did put Benson before Milton, Hentgen, Radke, and Lieber. Call me crazy.

    ********************************

    Finally, I feel it necessary to respond to the Baseball Prospectus recently released top 50 prospect list. Love 'em of hate 'em, you really have to respect Prospectus for their shrewdness. They house the least consertive list I see on an annual basis, letting their hunches ride heavier than a Baseball America scouting report. I think this is a good thing, and something I need to work on. I probably let a few selections be determined on "what I should do."

    With that being said, in my mind, I overvalued J.J. Hardy. Prospectus made him a top 20 prospect, and I'm sure Baseball America will have him in the top 25. I regret putting him in my top 30, I'd rather him have been in the 40s somehwere. The kid only hit .279 in AA last year, not as high as a top 40 prospect should do. I came to a revelation next year when trying to think of a good comparison...Royce Clayton. When checking the numbers, I proved to be right. Here are some numbers that the two were eerily close on while in AA:

    Average: Clayton- .280; Hardy- .279
    Walks: Clayton- 61; Hardy- 58
    XBH: Clayton- 35; Hardy- 38

    I concede that Clayton has more speed while Hardy has more pop, but both were great on defense. Who knows if this comparison will pan out or not, but I found it interesting.

    That's all for today. As always, leave reactions in my comments (I read them all), and go check out the other All-Baseball sites for more fantastic commentary.

    WTNYFebruary 24, 2004
    04-05 Free Agent Hitters
    By Bryan Smith

    In order to dig deeper into the mess that is next offseason, I first want to establish a comprehensive list of the next group of major free agents. I’ve mentioned a few in the last couple of articles, but I wanted to put them all together.

    First, a list of the top twenty free agent hitters next offseason, along with pertinent information on each player (including 2001-2003 OPS+).

    1. Carlos Beltran- CF- Kansas City (119, 108, 126)- While the 1999 Rookie of the Year won’t compare to others on this list in terms of OPS+, Beltran has the full bag of tricks. Beltran is the best baserunner in the Majors, and plays a fantastic centerfield. He’ll supply at least thirty stolen bases a season, as well as seventy walks. There have been no substantial negotiations with the Royals, as Allain Baird is comfortable with David DeJesus patrolling center in 2005. Beltran will be highly sought after by teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and possibly, the Mariners.

    2. Carlos Delgado- 1B- Toronto (141, 153, 160)- All Delgado does is hit. Carlos is the best left-handed hitter in the American League, and behind only Bonds and Helton in the Majors. Delgado led the league in OPS last year, as well as total times on base. That number is helped by the fact that he walks at least 100 times every season, so basically, he’s second to only Bonds as favorite sabermetric hitters. Delgado is a threat to approach a .600SLG every season, and nearly capturing the Triple Crown led him to being voted second in the AL MVP race. I believe this will be Paul DePodesta’s first target, and deservingly so.

    3. Lance Berkman- OF- Houston (162, 152, 137)- In the history of baseball, Berkman ranks behind only one switch-hitter in career OPS, Mickey Mantle. Lance has had a magnificent beginning to his career, yet he hardly gets the press that fellow NL Central stud Albert Pujols garners. Berkman will likely be the Astros’ primary target next year, ahead of Biggio, Kent, and Clemens on Gerry Hunsicker’s priority list. Berkman will stay apart of the Killer Bs, I guarantee it.

    4. Magglio Ordonez- RF- Chicago (135, 152, 142)- Numbers four and five were almost traded for each other, and this is my way of saying that Theo Epstein would have gotten the better side of that deal (can anyone get the short end of the stick against Ken Williams?). Ordonez is a sensational hitter, and even as a Cubs fan, I’ll admit he’s the best offensive player in Chicago. Mags doesn’t run a lot anymore, but he’s one of the league’s most consistent hitters. I do not think the White Sox will keep Ordonez, leaving him to what should be a very soft market.

    5. Nomar Garciaparra- SS- Boston (114, 132, 121)- Nomar has worked hard to return to the 1997 version of himself, and the last two years are testament to the fact that he’s back. Nomar is good for .300/.350/.515 every season, as well as about fifteen stolen bases. His defense at short is a bit under league average, but honestly, who cares? ‘Nomah’ is the heart of New England, and the fans devotion to their shortstop will not change despite the offseason drama. Theo is already in talks with Nomar’s agent, and I doubt he’ll still be on this list in two months.

    6. Richie Sexson- 1B- Arizona (124, 130, 136)- The bad news for Richie Sexson is that try as he may, Sexson just can’t reach the .280 batting average plateau. The good news? His plate discipline keeps improving; his walks total has increased in every season. The number reached 98 last season, leading to his career high .379OBP. This, along with a .279ISO, is the reason that the Diamondbacks have become so infatuated with Sexson. Whether Jerry Colangelo can afford to retain Sexson beyond 2004 remains to be seen, but considering the number of deferrals he has, it’s doubtful.

    7. Jose Vidro- 2B- Montreal (113, 126, 111)- Since 1900, only five second basemens have hit .300 in five seasons before they turned 29. Four of those players are in the Hall of Fame, including former Twin great Rod Carew. The fifth? Jose Vidro. Unfortunately, being an Expo has shielded many baseball fans of Vidro, who has been a top-3 second basemen in the Majors for four seasons. Unless Major League Baseball finds a buyer soon, Vidro will follow the fate of former teammate Vladimir Guerrero in leaving Montreal/San Juan. The most likely, and equally frightening, destination is in the Bronx.

    8. Garret Anderson- LF- Anaheim (100, 130, 137)- Nine straight years. That is the amount of time that Garret Anderson has hit .285 in the Majors, spanning his entire career. Anderson’s contact skills rival and other Major Leaguer’s, although his plate discipline is equivalent to Randall Simon. Anderson’s powerful display in the Home Run Derby exposed his power to the country, yet since 2000, he’s having a hard time eclipsing the 30HR mark. The Angels love the leadership he brings to the table, and the team has said re-signing Anderson will be a priority.

    9. Derrek Lee- 1B- Chicago (113, 131, 135)- Thirty jacks, twenty steals, and a Gold Glove, all from first base. Derrek Lee is definitely a unique player, and I’m under the belief that he’ll be the Cubs’ best hitter in 2004. Lee has continued to blossom in each Major League season, and I think he’ll approach 40HR in Wrigley Field. The Cubs would be wise to lock up Lee now, because if they wait, he could rise very quickly on this list.

    10. Richard Hidalgo- RF- Houston (104, 89, 142)- When he’s on, Richard Hidalgo is a player to be reckoned with. Unfortunately for the Astros, Hidalgo has been off too much during his time with Houston. While 2003 was his second (see 2000) season to date, there remains too much worry that Hidalgo will slip into the pathetic, overweight right fielder that we saw in 2002. The Astros spend too much on Hidalgo years ago, and I don’t suspect Hunsicker will make that gamble again.

    11. Troy Glaus- 3B- Anaheim (127, 115, 118)- Amidst all the Garret Anderson praise and Dallas McPherson hype is a former third overall pick that just hasn’t developed the way Bill Stonneman would have hoped. While Troy Glaus has hit forty home runs in two different seasons, his career batting average is .253. Glaus, like the player preceding him, just could not stay the 2000 version of himself. Troy will likely draw some fat cash from somewhere, but it won’t be Anaheim.

    12. Orlando Cabrera- SS- Montreal (87, 84, 95)- In the early days of his career, the knock on Cabrera was always that he couldn’t hit. Things changed last year when Cabrera set highs in nearly every offensive statistic, including sixty-six extra base hits. Add that with twenty stolen bases and a Gold Glove-caliber SS, and you have a fantastic ballplayer. Sure, Cabrera hasn’t topped an OPS+ above 100, but he’s just starting to come around.

    13. Geoff Jenkins- LF- Milwaukee (105, 103, 133)- Like #16 on this list, the question is not “Can He?”, the question is “Will He?” Geoff Jenkins showed in 2000 that he has all the potential in the world, but just can’t stay healthy. He managed 128 games last year, putting numbers that already have General Managers salivating over. With this being his contract year, it would be a good time for Jenkins to stay healthy for 162 games and hit forty home runs. If that happens, he would undoubtedly surpass fellow outfielders Anderson and Hidalgo in front of him.

    14. Corey Koskie- 3B- Minnesota (121, 118, 121)- Corey Koskie has always been more than an average player, likely the reason his OPS+ has never dipped below 108. Quietly, Koskie is one of the more complete third basemen in the game, and a high walk total will win him over with stat-heads. Koskie’s OBP shouldn’t dip below .370 again, and while his SLG appears to be descending, I expect that number to rise to about .470. The Twins will likely let Mike Cuddyer play the hot corner after 2004, leaving Koskie to an ugly market.

    15. Bill Mueller- 3B- Boston (124, 98, 140)- The 2003 batting champ ranks fifteenth on a future free agent list? Has Bryan gone crazy? Possibly, but I simply couldn’t justify putting Mueller ahead of any player in the top-15. Fenway Park has been very nice to Mueller, I just don’t think there is another stadium in the game that Mueller could hit 69 extra-base hits in. He’ll want to return, but Kevin Youkilis may stand in his way. But heck, I’d be happy to see him don Cubbie Blue again.

    16. J.D. Drew- OF- Atlanta (162, 110, 133)- Try as I might, it’s really hard to go against John Scheurholtz’s judgment. While Drew’s consistently low AB numbers scare me, he’s like Delmon Young to Grady Sizemore. Sure, Young has a sky-high ceiling, but isn’t it a bit early to say he’ll reach that? I’ll just say that I’d like to see 425AB in a season before I jump on the J.D. Drew bandwagon. But, I’ll sure as Hell never deny that the kid has skills.

    17. Jose Valentin- SS- Chicago (117,104, 103)- Being a Chicagoan, I’ve seen Jose Valentin play more than a few times. I haven’t been all that impressed in the past by Valentin, so I was a bit surprised when both the Diamond Mind and UZR defensive systems ranked Jose at the top of the SS charts. My White Sox friend has this theory that Valentin’s errors come often in the cold weather, but as the season goes on, he gets hotter. While Valentin won’t contribute to the team average or OBP, it’s always nice to get 25HR from your SS. Just ask Ozzie Guillen…ahh, the irony (Ozzie’s career HR total of 28 was matched by Valentin last year).

    18. Jason Varitek- C- Boston (124, 94, 120)- By giving low rankings to both Bill Mueller and Varitek, I’m sure that I’ll enfuriate Red Sox nation. I’ll be watching my back the next few days, but I really believe that the Varitek selection is justified. Varitek will be 33 in 2005, the year that everything starts to fall off for catchers. His power seems to be highly volatile, so predicting where his HR total will be in three years might even be too hard for PECOTA. I respect the fact that pitchers love the guy, but unlike Chuck LaMar, that won’t put him in my top 5 (see Martinez, Tino).

    19. Aramis Ramirez- 3B- Chicago (125, 69, 104)- Yes, I know the Cubs have had 4,193 third basemen since Ron Santo left, but that doesn’t mean the team should lock up Ramirez. While I’m a big believer in Aramis for 2004, like Hidalgo, his shady past is reason enough to avoid long-term deals. If he hits 30HR in Wrigley next year, I’ll still be crossing my fingers that Billy Mueller or Corey Koskie sign the dotted line. Aramis has as much talent as anyone, but his mind seems a bit too fragile for my liking.

    20. David Ortiz- DH/1B- Minnesota (107, 122, 144)- No Peter, he’s not the MVP. And if I was anyone but Theo Epstein, I wouldn’t be the least bit interested in Ortiz. Why? .315/.399/.635. That was David’s OPS in Fenway last year, as opposed to .256/.335/.541 away from Boston’s confines. If the Red Sox are trying an offense/defense platoon with Reese and Bellhorn this year, maybe a home/away next year? We’ll see, but all I know is, I would be hard pressed to believe that Ortiz won’t be in Boston in 2005.

    That’s it for today. I’ll review the hitters with options tomorrow, as well as give my top twenty list for pitchers. Otherwise, do me a favor and cruise through the new digs here at All-Baseball

    WTNYFebruary 23, 2004
    Beane's Choice
    By Bryan Smith

    After beginning my dive into what will be the 2004-2005 offseason, more news/rumors opened my eyes this weekend. The San Francisco Chronicle wrote an article about Eric Chavez nearly being signed, a story that fellow All-Baseball writer Will Carroll rehashes. On Friday I wrote that Chavez was very likely to stay an A, and Billy Beane doesn’t look to be falling into the same mistake that cost him Jason Giambi by waiting too long.

    The Chronice story reads, “In order to retain Chavez, Oakland probably will have to offer a minimum of five years and $50-60M.” Carroll also rumors that the deal is five years, so I’m going to assume as much. I think the largest question this signing will raise is how it affects the big three.

    Steve Schott, the tight-fisted Oakland owner, has been getting more gracious each year, raising team payroll in each of the last five seasons. In fact, thanks to Doug Pappas, this is about what the Associated Press has reported the team figures to be each of the last four seasons:

    2000: $31.971M
    2001: $33.810M
    2002: $39.680M
    2003: $50.361M

    Oakland’s payroll took a 22% increase last season, harboring huge salaries like Jermaine Dye. That problem still exists this season, although the Oakland payroll will likely be below last year’s figure. If Eric Chavez is set to make $11M through the next five seasons, how many more large salaries can Billy Beane afford?

    One. Assuming each of the Big Three signs comparable deals to Vazquez, Millwood, and Halladay, the A’s aces will be demanding about twelve million dollars per year soon. Taking Chavez’s contract into account, signing two pitchers would mean that Schott would be asking Beane to sign 22 more players for about $15M, or just over $675,000 per player. That would be nearly impossible. If only one of the Big Three returns, Beane will be forced to sign 23 players using $27M, or $1.17M per player, much closer to the average Major League salary.

    Tim Hudson is the first of the group to be up for free agency, which will be after the 2005 season. Zito and Mulder both have options for 2006, and if the A’s continue to do what they did with Hudson, both will remain in the Bay area. So, it’s a good bet to say that these players will be under contract in 2006:

    Eric Chavez- $11,000,000
    Barry Zito- $8,250,000
    Mark Mulder- Between 7.25M and 8.5M
    Mark Kotsay- $5,500,000
    Arthur Rhodes- $3,100,000
    TOTAL- about $35,600,000

    Without taking arbitration-eligible or auto-renewable players into account, Oakland is likely already on the hook for $35.6 million for five players. Signing Hudson would put the payroll at about forty-seven million for the cost of six players, exactly the kind of numbers that Billy Beane can’t afford. So, I find that it is logically impossible for the A’s to re-sign Tim Hudson unless Mark Mulder or Barry Zito don’t warrant their options being picked up for 2006.

    That leaves the debate to just Mulder and Zito. Looking at rate statistics from 2003, surprisingly Mulder has the clear edge. While Zito has a better H/9 (7.23 to 8.68), Mulder ranks better in K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA. In fact, Zito’s K/9 reached a career low 5.67 last year, dropping for the third straight season. Mulder has excellent control, but a hip problem that ended his 2003 season early poses a big question mark. Between Zito’s dropping strikeout rate and Mulder’s bad hip, it’s too early to tell which player Beane should lock up.

    *****************************

    Also, a reader pointed me to a Boston Globe article about Derek Lowe accepting he won’t be pitching in Beantown in 2005. I touched on this Friday, not knowing that Theo Epstein had just made comments that the Red Sox could not possibly retain all six of their big free agents after this season. Two is more likely, and my guess is that Nomar Garciaparra and David Ortiz get the call. Kelly Shoppach and Kevin Youkilis make Jason Varitek and Bill Mueller easy choices. I also think that Pedro and Lowe will both leave, one spot will become occupied by Bronson Arroyo, while the other will be acquired next winter. I’ll touch more on which kind of players will be available next winter tomorrow...

    WTNYFebruary 20, 2004
    Long-Term
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, my article on Greg Maddux inspired further thought. I wrote about how the Maddux signing almost assures that Juan Cruz will be traded at midseason. So I have decided to look at how the big Major League moves from this winter will dictate what certain teams do in the future.

    To continue with Maddux and the Cubs, his signing provides clarity for how Jim Hendry will handle the future of this pitching staff. The Cubs have often voiced their desire to sign soon-to-be free agent Kerry Wood to a long-term contract before he reaches free agency next winter. I believe there is a mutual love between Chicago and Wood, and I do not doubt that a deal will get done. The Cubs will follow the contracts signed by Roy Halladay (4/42) and Javier Vazquez (4/45), and lock up Kerry Wood for four more years. As for Matt Clement, he’s history. The Cubs top prospect, Angel Guzman, should be ready in 2005, and he’ll provide a cheap replacement for Clement.

    Offensively, the Cubs have more decisions to make. Aramis Ramirez will probably turn out to be the best Cubs third basemen since Ron Santo, but what do they do with him? Hopefully Hendry will be smart enough to buy out the aging Moises Alou, giving him plenty of money to work with. But the number one priority should be locking up Derrek Lee, the Gold Glove first basemen that the Cubs acquired this winter. Lee will not come cheap, but his mix of power, speed, and defense is beyond fantastic.

    It was the World Champion Marlins who actually used more foresight in the Lee deal, acquiring a first basemen with a super-high ceiling. After winning their second championship the Marlins had big decisions to make this winter, and ultimately chose Mike Lowell and Luis Castillo over Lee and Pudge Rodriguez. There are big decisions to make in the Florida rotation, as Beckett, Burnett, Penny, and Pavano all become free agents at similar times. Surely the team will lock up Josh Beckett, one of the key characters in their championship run. The final question will come down to Brad Penny and Carl Pavano, a decision that Larry Beinfest should wait and let performance dictate.

    Florida started their rotation trimmings this winter sending southpaw Mark Redman to Oakland for a middle reliever. Billy Beane is one of the more complicated GMs in the game, and guessing his plan is as ludicrous as seeing “You Got Served.” Peter Gammons stresses that Eric Chavez is the key, and I would agree with him. Beane waived off the losses of Giambi and Tejada, always citing their main long-term target was Chavez. The third basemen recently hired ex-A consultant Dave Stewart as an agent, and the former Oakland hurler will likely cause Beane to lose a member of the Big Three.

    With a $40M payroll, I think it was only logical think that Beane could only sign two of the six great players the A’s have had in the last five years: Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, Hudson, Zito, and Mulder. The first two are already left, and we’ve established that Chavez will likely stay in Oakland. Of the big three, I think Barry Zito would be the best choice. He may not be the best pitcher of the group, it’s extremely close, but he upholds the best image. His huge curveball and suave demeanor fit well by the Bay, while Hudson and Mulder seem a bit more high-strung. I know, we’re not selling jeans here, but when performance is this close, go to the player with the most hardware.

    Another great player the A’s had to waive goodbye to this winter was Keith Foulke. The dominating closer signed a big deal with the Boston Red Sox, a team that really shook up their future by adding Foulke and ace right-hander Curt Schilling. The team has also already re-signed Trot Nixon to a long-term contract, and are in negotiations with Nomar Garciaparra’s agent. Despite the winter controversy, expect the Red Sox to lock-up Nomah, as he’s the next best thing after the Bronx Bombers brand new third basemen. This likely means the team will lose batting champion Bill Mueller, but the Greek God of Walks should help lessen that blow. Gammons’ MVP choice, David Ortiz, is one of the more unclear situations, and I think time will tell with the big designated hitter.

    By adding Schilling, Theo Epstein clouded an already murky contract situation with ace Pedro Martinez. With large contracts already existing in Nomar, Schilling, Manny, and Foulke, I think that Theo will allow Pedro to seek free agency after 2004. While Martinez is the greatest rate-statistic pitcher since Sandy Koufax, his body appears to frail to risk a $15M per year contract on. The final decision that Epstein will be forced to make is Derek Lowe. While converting Lowe to starting has turned out to be a fantastic move, Lowe’s 2003 performance was hardly awe-inspiring. This situation will likely be decided after 2004, and Colorado GM Dan O’Dowd should already be licking his chops.

    Former Boston manager Joe Kerrigan may be running the show in Philadelphia by July, assuming that Phillie ownership does the right thing and fires Larry Bowa. Ed Wade has invested a lot of money for this team to be this decades 1990s Indians, so Bowa has very little wiggle room. Most of the offense is locked up, so Wade’s largest post-2004 decisions should be from the pitching staff. Kevin Millwood signed a very fat contract after accepting arbitration in December, and I doubt that Philadelphia will make that mistake again. There is also virtually no chance that Eric Milton gets re-signed, I just don’t believe there’s any way he’ll prove worthy of nine million dollars in 2004. Instead, the Phillies will turn to prospects Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd, and possibly even Cole Hamels.

    Expect the Phillies to exercise brand-new closer Billy Wagner’s option at the end of the year, and the team will probably pursue a long-term contract. Houston was forced to make that move in order to bolster their rotation, and Octavio Dotel should be fine in the closer’s role. The team will have big arbitration salaries due to Dotel, Wade Miller, and Roy Oswalt next year, really limiting Gerry Hunsicker next offseason. That will be very problematic, as a sizeable portion of Houston’s offense will be free to leave.

    Will Carroll reported yesterday that Houston is trying to trade Richard Hidalgo, one of four Astros that will be free agents next season. Actually, if the team decides to pick up a $9M option on Jeff Kent (doubtful due to Chris Burke’s presence), it would only be three. Homegrown star Lance Berkman will surely be locked up in Houston, but Hidalgo will be shown the door. Centerfielder Craig Biggio poses an interesting loyalty problem, but from a baseball sense, should not re-sign Biggio for any amount of money.

    Tensions began and grew between Houston and the Bronx this offseason, as the Astros stole a pair of ex-Yankees from Steinbrenner’s mighty grasp. But, no matter, George has found some decent replacements instead. While the Yankees got just about every under the sun this winter, the four largest additions were Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, and Gary Sheffield. In 2006, the Yankees will be paying eight players somewhere around $110M. After 2004, Mariano Rivera, Jon Lieber, and Steve Karsay will be Brian Cashman’s decisions. Expect the latter two to be let go, but surely the team will sign Rivera for the rest of his career. Afraid the Yankees will go after Pedro to be their “fifth” starter next winter? Yeah, me too.

    John Hart’s main justification for the Alex Rodriguez will come down to dollar and cents, as he has about sixteen million dollars more to spend on this team each winter. The club’s desire for Kerry Wood has not been silent, but as I said earlier, I remain confident that Kid K will remain in Cubbie Blue. Instead, I think this team will go after two middle-of-the-rotation pitchers, guys like Matt Clement and Brad Penny. Signing Hank Blalock to a five-year contract was genius, but surely it was pushed by Grady Fuson rather than Hart. Tom Hicks largest post-2004 decision will be whether it is time to publicly hand the team’s reins over to Fuson.

    By Fuson becoming general manager, the Major Leagues will have three GMs that worked under Billy Beane. That number increased to two last week as new Dodger owner Frank McCourt named Paul DePodesta their new head honcho. DePodesta likely has large plans for this organization, yet is likely very limited until the Kevin Malone mistakes are completely weeded out. Expect players like Adrian Beltre, Juan Encarnacion, and Odalis Perez to be out of Dodger uniform in 2005. The team will go hard after a big-name shortstop, as well as adding another quality outfielder. Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, and Joel Hanrahan will provide DePo with a fantastic young, cheap rotation. This will allow the team to go after players like Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Delgado, Richard Hidalgo, Orlando Cabrera, and Edgar Renteria.

    If he had been named GM months earlier, I suspect that DePodesta would have signed Vladimir Guerrero to a contract. Instead, Guerrero signed with the Anaheim Angels, joining other talented free agents Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar, and Jose Guillen. Expect either Troy Glaus or Garret Anderson to not be re-signed after 2004, and likely the latter. Anderson has received much praise from Angel brass, and third base prospect Dallas McPherson could be Glaus’ successor. Ben Molina will be pushed out by prospect Jeff Mathis, and Ramon Ortiz will walk when Ervin Santana is ready. I also doubt the team will re-sign Troy Percival, especially when relievers like Francisco Rodriguez and Brendan Donnelly are more than qualified to end games.

    Finally, there are the constant question marks surrounding Vlad’s old team, the (insert city here) Expos. Selling the team after 2004 is a must, because if the team remains without ownership, their foundation will crumble. If the Expos are completely out of the race by July, and they should be, Omar Minaya will have the option of trading Jose Vidro, Orlando Cabrera, and Livan Hernandez. All three would be valuable pieces to any puzzle, and the second basemen would unfortunately by Steinbrenner’s first choice. Even OBP Jesus couldn’t help an Expo team without Vidro and Cabrera.

    ************************

    That’s all for today, I hope you found this article as interesting to read as I found to write it. This blog will slowly struggle to find topics as the year begins, and I urge you all to give me future topic ideas in the “Comments” section. Thanks!

    Also, I want to point out a few things I've noticed around the blog-world lately...

    - Aaron Gleeman's article about Bill Plaschke was one of the best articles I've read in a long time. Alex Belth's Winter Meetings article and Christian Ruzich's review of the Javier Vazquez trade join Gleeman's piece as the best of the winter in my book.

    - Finally, if you want to read some good sabermetric pieces, I've seen a few of those. Mike here at All-Baseball is concluding his study on relievers, and you should definitely go see that. Also, Avkash Patel at the Raindrops wrote a great piece on combining the various defensive metrics to create one lone number. Enjoy...

    WTNYFebruary 19, 2004
    A DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT
    By Bryan Smith

    One Cub Fan’s Impression of One Huge Move

    “Back to that same old place, sweet home Chicago.” –Frank Sinatra

    “I wasn’t ready to leave the first time...it’s nice to have an opportunity to come back,” and with those words, the Cubs greatest homegrown pitcher (so far) was welcomed back to Cubdom. Greg Maddux, after an eleven-year hiatus, will be wearing Cubbie Blue once again.

    While Maddux may be one of the best products to ever come from the Cubs minor league system, it’s fitting (considering the Cubs history) that his best years came in another uniform. Fans have cursed the organization for letting another Lou Brock slip away, and this is Jim Hendry’s way of reconciling that move. But as the Cub boss says, “Greg is coming home because Greg can still pitch. And Greg can still win games.”

    Winning games has never been a problem for Maddux, as he owns the Major League record for most consecutive seasons with at least fifteen wins (16). Greg’s career win total is up to 289, so it’s likely that number 300 will come in the uniform that it all began.

    Maddog also has kept his innings pitched numbers up as he’s gotten older, starting at least thirty-three games in every season since 1995. That dependability will be important for a Cub staff that will be clouded with yellow lights. As Will Carroll pointed out when breaking the story yesterday, Greg’s reliability will especially help Carlos Zambrano, who should see less stress in the fifth spot. Hopefully Dusty will see Maddux as an excuse to lay off the young arms, letting the veteran become his innings-eater. While Maddux has become an eighty-five pitches/game starter, his efficiency allows for six or more innings a start.

    Maddux critics will of course point a few negative indicators the thirty-seven year old has shown: his worst ERA+ since 1987, a four-year declining K/9 rate, and a home run total that has peaked. These are all valid arguments, and the same worries that I as a Cubs fan have. The ERA, while rising, was lower than Andy Pettite and Wade Miller, while mirroring Roger Clemens. The K/9 rate might not be as sexy as it once was, but his K/BB balances it well. And finally, I can’t explain the HR numbers, and frankly, they worry me. Greg’s road ERA is cause for concern, but I guess he keeps the ball down enough to combat that.

    As a Cubs fan, I’m supposed to be optimistic. I mean, hell, look at the title of my blog, it indicates the hope that Cubs fans have. Greg Maddux becoming a Cub is a move that I will keep my optimism on, even through all three years. I can’t promise that win streak is going to continue, but I think it has a damn good chance.

    Another important question this raises is what’s next? The Cubs have a roster built right now, it goes as follows:

    C- Michael Barrett
    1B- Derrek Lee
    2B- Mark Grudzielanek
    SS- Alex Gonzalez
    3B- Aramis Ramirez
    LF- Moises Alou
    CF- Corey Patterson
    RF- Sammy Sosa

    B1- Todd Walker- IF
    B2- Todd Hollandsworth- OF
    B3- Ramon Martinez- IF
    B4- Tom Goodwin- OF
    B5- Paul Bako- C

    1. Mark Prior
    2. Kerry Wood
    3. Greg Maddux
    4. Carlos Zambrano
    5. Matt Clement

    CL- Joe Borowski- RH
    SU- LaTroy Hawkins- RH
    SU- Mike Remlinger- LH
    MR- Kyle Farnsworth- RH
    LOOGY- Kent Mercker
    6th- Cruz/Beltran/Wellemeyer

    To go into camp with only one problem is fantastic. The last relief spot will be a battle royal between Juan Cruz, Francis Beltran, and Todd Wellemeyer. First of all, I’d love to eliminate Cruz, who just doesn’t have the stuff cut out to be a reliever. I have big plans for him though…keep reading. Beltran was sensational in the Winter League, becoming closer on a team that had Guillermo Mota and I believe, Danys Baez. The only problem is that Beltran would need to pitch some long innings, a trait I’m not sure he possesses.

    So by default, Todd Wellemeyer gets the job. I think Wellemeyer is well-suited for this role, his stuff is relief-quality and he’s able to pitch a lot of innings. The other five will allow Baker to seldomly use Wellemeyer, only when we need a reliever in the fifth.

    As for Cruz, I would first send him to Iowa. He’s trade bait. The Cubs have one need and one need only…a leadoff hitter. Everyone at the Cub Reporter keeps pointing to Jose Vidro, but my hope is Jason Kendall. Why not send Cruz, Beltran, and Mike Barrett to Pittsburgh for Jason Kendall? Great catcher, great leadoff hitter, Dusty Baker-type player. It would solidify the lineup, and make the Cubs the undeniable favorites to capture the National League crown.

    And all because one man came back home.

    “There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home.” –Wizard of Oz

    WTNYFebruary 18, 2004
    Justifications and More Rankings
    By Bryan Smith

    Hope everyone enjoyed my top fifty prospects, it’s 6600 word Gleeman-length post was my longest ever. I didn’t receive a ton of feedback, but I want to spend today explaining, justifying, and going deeper into the realm of prospect ranking.

    Yesterday in the comment section, by far the best feature of Movable Type, Will Carroll asked my methodology behind my rankings. I’m no scientist, and even if I were, prospectology is no field that can be researched. My best attempts including reading everything I can get my hands on, from daily Baseball America reports to articles in small-town minor league newspapers. I compare statistics for every minor leaguer, and when possible, and go see as many games as I can. I’d be lying if I said I weighed everything equally, because I don’t. Instead, the rankings look somewhat like this:

    1. Statistics- The central influence for all new-age baseball fanatics
    2. Scouting Reports- Trust Baseball America first, but all reports are fair game
    3. Other materials
    4. Personal Experiences

    I’ve learned to trust my own judgment last, as talent evaluators like Josh Boyd, or the numbers, tend to tell the story best. Numbers are my key instrument, but sometimes potential is too salivating to ignore. The reason I rank Alexis Rios ahead of Jeremy Reed is solely based on ceiling, Reed hit for better average, has more immediate power, better stolen base skills, etc. But as I pointed out yesterday, the only 6-6 outfielder that has hit for .300 in the past is a Hall of Famer.

    But the reason Edwin Jackson is ahead of Greg Miller proves that I’m a stat-head at heart. Southpaws that have the numbers Greg Miller did in AA have immense ceilings, and I don’t doubt that. But Edwin Jackson had better H/9 and K/9 numbers last season, at a higher level. Jackson is the much better bet to reach his potential, and since he’s older, less likely to suffer an injury.

    Another question I got yesterday was about Gabe Gross. I was asked where Gross would stack up in the next group, whether it be the next ten or next twenty. Little did Jay know, Gabe Gross was the next guy on my prospect list. The rest of my top 90 list goes as follows:

    51. Gabe Gross (TOR OF)- High OBP-type that is a good bet to reach his potential. I thought the Blue Jays traded Bobby Kielty?
    52. Matt Peterson (NYM SP)- Dominating numbers in the FSL and very good pitcher’s body. A good bet to breakout big-time next season.
    53. Jeff Francouer (ATL OF)- I’m less high on Francouer, a physically-gifted player that is a bit too raw. Jeff could go in either direction, but flaming out is a decent bet.
    54. Taylor Buchholz (HOU SP)- Houston wouldn’t have dealt Billy Wagner if they hadn’t received their best pitching prospect since Roy Oswalt. One of the top five curveballs in the minor leagues right now.
    55. Justin Jones (CHC SP)- An injury seems probable for Jones, who must add weight to his tall frame. Has succeeded at each stop since becoming a pro...few prospects have an arsenal this good.
    56. Chris Snelling (SEA OF)- U.S.S. Mariner says Snelling’s ceiling is Tony Gwynn, and while I’m not that high on him, the Australian needs to stay healthy for an entire season to really prove his potential.
    57. Khalil Greene (SD SS)- The former collegiate player of the year didn’t have the year he was hoping, mostly because the Padres rushed him. A year in AAA could make him equal to J.J. Hardy.
    58. Jesse Crain (MIN RP)- Stormed through three levels in a breakthrough season. Proving that University of Houston closers make good prospects (see Wagner, Ryan), could be a big help come midseason.
    59. Kris Honel (CHW SP)- Honel’s knuckle-curve draws comparisons to Mike Mussina, which seem to be fair. Rushing the Providence High School right-hander would be foolish considering his potential.
    60. Andy Sisco (CHC SP)- The numbers just aren’t matching with potential. Sisco stands above 6-8, and can dial his fastball in the mid-90s. His arm is a concern, but Sisco could breakout huge if he stays healthy.

    And the rest, without my input:

    61. Justin Huber (NYM C)
    62. Adam LaRoche (ATL 1B)
    63. J.D. Durbin (MIN SP)
    64. Fausto Carmona (CLE SP)
    65. Jason Lane (HOU OF)
    66. Corey Hart (MIL 3B)
    67. Joel Hanrahan (LA SP)
    68. Ramon Nivar (TEX 2B/OF)
    69. Manny Parra (MIL SP)
    70. Jose Lopez (SEA SS)

    71. Jayson Nix (COL 2B)
    72. Joel Zumaya (DET SP)
    73. Sean Burnett (PIT SP)
    74. Chadd Blasko (CHC SP)
    75. Dan Meyer (ATL SP)
    76. Freddy Sanchez (PIT 2B)
    77. Bubba Nelson (ATL SP)
    78. Bobby Brownlie (CHC SP)
    79. Alberto Callaspo (ANA 2B)
    80. Brandon Claussen (CIN SP)

    81. Matt Cain (SF SP)
    82. Ryan Madson (PHI SP)
    83. Ryan Howard (PHI 1B)
    84. Rett Johnson (SEA SP)
    85. Kevin Youkilis (BOS 3B)
    86. Mike Jones (MIL SP)
    87. Kevin Olsen (FLA SP)
    88. David Bush (TOR SP)
    89. Chad Tracy (AZ 3B)
    90. Felix Hernandez (SEA SP)

    Notice that I only included three 2003 draft picks in my top 90, and that was on purpose. I limited myself to players who had Major League experience, and Delmon Young, as I think it’s fun to see where the top pick stacks up. So by demand, here is my top ten prospects from the 2003 draft:

    1. Rickie Weeks- 2B- Milwaukee Brewers
    2. Delmon Young- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    3. Ryan Wagner- RHP- Cincinnati Reds
    4. Ian Stewart- 3B- Colorado Rockies
    5. Kyle Sleeth- SP- Detroit Tigers
    6. Ryan Harvey- OF- Chicago Cubs
    7. Conor Jackson- 3B/OF- Arizona Diamondbacks
    8. Jeffrey Allison- SP- Florida Marlins
    9. Michael Aubrey- 1B- Cleveland Indians
    10. Brad Sullivan- SP- Oakland Athletics

    Finally, using my top 90, I’d like to give my organizational rankings. To do this, I count how many players each team had in the top 90, and if teams are tied, I add up the rankings of each player (the lower, the better the ranking). For example, Tampa Bay and Houston both have two players in my ranking. Tampa Bay’s two players are ranked second and seventeenth, while the Astros two are fifty-fourth and sixty-fifth. So since Tampa Bay’s 19 is lower than the Astros 119, the Devil Rays get the better ranking. After that long explanation, these are my organizational rankings solely bases on my top 90 prospect list:

    1. Anaheim Angels
    2. Milwaukee Brewers
    3. Chicago Cubs
    4. Seattle Mariners
    5. Los Angeles Dodgers
    6. Toronto Blue Jays
    7. Atlanta Braves
    8. Minnesota Twins
    9. New York Mets
    10. Pittsburgh Pirates
    11. Philadelphia Phillies
    12. Baltimore Orioles
    13. Colorado Rockies
    14. Florida Marlins
    15. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    16. Oakland Athletics
    17. Kansas City Royals
    18. Chicago White Sox
    19. Tied- St. Louis Cardinals
    19. Tied- San Diego Padres
    20. Cleveland Indians
    21. Houston Astros
    22. Arizona Diamondbacks
    23. San Francisco Giants
    24. Cincinnati Reds
    25. New York Yankees
    26. Texas Rangers
    27. Detroit Tigers
    28. Boston Red Sox
    29. Montreal Expos

    That’s it for today. As always, leave any questions in the comments below...

    WTNYFebruary 17, 2004
    The WTNY Top 50
    By Bryan Smith

    I’ve been working on this list for awhile, so finally I get to debut my top 50 prospect list. For each player I wrote about a paragraph about their skillset, and then skipped a line, put a *, and wrote a sentence or two about their future. My list is more tools-based than most sabermatricians around the Internet, but more performance-based than the average scout would tell you.

    Enjoy...

    1. Joe Mauer- C- Minnesota Twins
    Not many players can justify being chosen before Mark Prior, but Mauer comes awfully close. He’s the consensus #1 choice on every list, mainly because he is so unique. Only five left-handed hitting catchers have hit .280 more than once, and three (Mickey Cochrane, Yogi Berra, Bill Dickey) are Hall of Famers. Mauer hits for average extremely well, and is said to have Gold Glove defense. I’m not sure if Mauer will ever hit for the power the scouts are suggesting, I see more Cochrane than Dickey.
    *- It’s really up to Mauer when he hits the Metrodome, but he could start the season there. If he struggles in Spring Training, the Twins will send him to AAA for fine-tuning.

    2. B.J. Upton- SS- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- Bats- R Throws- R
    The sky is the limit for B.J., who had very similar numbers to what Derek Jeter had in the SALLY League as a 19-year-old. Upton has 50SB potential, and projects to 15-25HR annually. He struggled mightily on defense, and had 56 errors last season. That should change with age, and it’s believed he can be at least league average.
    *- The Devil Rays challenged Upton in 2003, and he really came through. The team will send him to AA Orlando, and will have the position wide open before 2005. But, they must make sure they advance him carefully, he’s their best prospect ever.

    3. Edwin Jackson- RHP- Los Angeles Dodgers
    At first glance, I was going to give the best starter label to fellow Dodger Greg Miller, but when investigating their peripheral numbers, my mind changed. Here’s how the pair did at their main level in ’04:


    Name H/9 K/9
    Jackson 7.34 9.53
    Miller 8.01 8.64

    While Miller ended the season wonderfully in AA, Jackson did fantastic in the Major Leagues. Jackson reminds me of Giant Jerome Williams, and it looks like the two will duke it out for years to come. Both have mid-90s fastballs and very good curveballs, are basically the same size, and are said to have very fluid motions. If you live in Los Angeles and aren’t excited, change.
    *- After a spectacular September, Jackson might earn a spot with the Dodgers. If not, he’ll go to AAA and be up by midseason. Dodger Stadium plus Jackson spells out Rookie of the Year.

    4. Rickie Weeks- 2B- Milwaukee Brewers- Bats-R Throws-R
    With Weeks being selected second overall, there has been three straight years of #2 choices dominating the first pick (Prior over Mauer, Upton over Bullington, Weeks over Young). Weeks has been much accomplished at every level, starting with the NCAA, then the Midwest League, and finally the AFL. He reminds me of Joe Morgan offensively, though Weeks has defensive shortcomings that Morgan didn’t. Think Alfonso Soriano, only with better discipline.
    *- The Brewers have second base filled in 2004, but they’ll make room when Rickie is ready. He’ll likely start in AA, but will join his future infield partners J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart in Indianapolis before long.

    5. Alexis Rios- OF- Toronto Blue Jays- Bats- R Throws- R
    No one broke out last year more than Rios, who finally justified the first round selection the team used on him. Tall and lanky, Rios has contact skills that are unmatched in the minor leagues. While his power hasn’t developed yet, he showed promising results in the Winter League, hitting 12 HR in 155AB. John Neary over at Batter’s Box had a nice piece on what that means here. On defense, Rios doesn’t cover the ground that Vernon Wells does, so he may move to left. At the Futures Game, Rios made a fantastic throw from center, and scouts agree he has the arm for right. The only outfielder to ever hit .300 at 6-6 was Dave Winfield, and Rios might be a lighter version of him.
    *- There’s little doubt that Rios will be in AAA next season, as the Blue Jays give him another year to hone his power skills. Then in 2005, the Jays will field a fantastic Gross-Wells-Rios trio in the Skydome.

    6. Justin Morneau- 1B- Minnesota Twins- Bats-L Throws-R
    In terms of power, Justin Morneau is in the highest tier, competing only with Prince Fielder and Jason Stokes in the minor leagues. But Morneau is the most Major League ready of the 3, as he hit 22HR in only four months in AA and AAA. The best comparison I could come up with is Willie McCovey, who just happens to be in the 500-HR club. Justin could draw more walks and strike out less, and some worry he won’t hit for average. The Twins have a star on their hands here, and Minnesota could have an M+M combo reminding of Biggio and Bagwell very soon.
    *- Justin is very close to ready, but the team is milking their time with Doug Mientkiewicz. I would trade their Gold Glover for Morneau, but instead Terry Ryan is going to let him dominate AA, and then unseat Matt LeCroy at DH.

    7. Greg Miller- LHP- Los Angeles Dodgers
    The Dodgers are really hoping for a second coming of Sam McDowell, but Miller might write his own book with his skills. Thought to be a questionable first-round pick before the 2002 draft, Miller turned it up in the final weeks, and the Dodgers ended up with a steal. Miller brings mid-90s heat, and two fantastic breaking pitches. Health could be a worry, but Miller finished the season fantastically in AA. Greg must add weight to his 6-5 frame, but could give the Dodgers the best 1-2 combo in the National League.
    *- While Miller was great in Jacksonville, it was only in four starts. He’ll go back there for 2004, and spend the year in the Southern League as a 19-year-old, like Jackson did this past year. Jackson and Joel Hanrahan will get starts before Miller, but the Dodgers might be highest on their southpaw.

    8. Andy Marte- 3B- Atlanta Braves- Bats-R Throws-R
    While the Braves system is renowned for producing pitching, the team has their best prospect since Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones walked the minors. Marte produced and produced big in the Florida State League, hitting 52 extra-base hits at the level. If your keeping track, that’s one less than Miguel Cabrera had at that level in 2002, and Marte’s AVE and OBP bested the Marlin youngster. Marte brings great defense to the table, and is nearly Major League ready.
    *- If Marte follows Cabrera’s path, he’ll be in Atlanta midseason. My guess is they leave him in AA Greenville a little bit longer, but he’ll be the Opening Day 3B in 2005. Marte will be hitting 30HR annually in Turner Field in five years time.

    9. Zack Greinke- RHP- Kansas City Royals
    In his first full year against professional hitting, Zack Greinke has made a name for himself. The Royal right-hander absolutely dominated Carolina League opponents, following a winter spent in the Puerto Rican League. Greinke dropped on my list due to a weak K/9 rate, but he balances that with great control. He understands changing speeds better than any other prospect, and mixes in an above-average curve. With three Major League pitches, Kansas City fans are praying for the second coming of Saberhagen.
    *- Upon promotion to AA, Greinke was hardly dominating. He'll head back to Wichita at year's beginning, but don't bet against him arriving about the same time that Jimmy Gobble did last year.

    10. Jeremy Reed- OF- Chicago White Sox
    My 2003 minor league player of the year, Jeremy Reed has ascented unlike any other prospect. The White Sox outfielder improved after a midseason AA promotion, hitting .409 and slugging more home runs. Reed may be the most instinctual player in the minors, using that both on defense and on the basepaths. He'll be an average fielder in both center and on the corners, but he does have the arm for right field. Reed's plate discipline is unparalleled, and he's very reminiscent of Lenny Dykstra. A sabermatrician's dream, it wasn't a surprise that Baseball Prospectus introduced Reed to me.
    *- Jeremy will get a chance at the centerfield job in Spring Training, but sending him to AAA has advantages also. Reed far surpasses former top prospect Joe Borchard, who should consider following the Drew Henson path soon.

    11. Cole Hamels- LHP- Philadelphia Phillies
    No 2002 draftee made noise like Cole Hamels did last year, not Upton, not Greinke, not Prince. Hamels made low-A hitters look silly in 2003, to the tone of a 3.86H/9 and 13.86K/9. Upon moving to the Florida State League, Hamels' H/9 fell a bit, but he kept his strikeout rates high. The southpaw has the best change up in the minors, as well as pinpoint control. Give Ed Wade and Mike Arbuckle some credit, they've had some great draft picks in recent years.
    *- Cole will head back to the FSL next year, but will be in the Eastern League by year’s end. A 2005 September call-up should be in the cards, fantastic pick by the Phillies.

    12. Jeff Mathis- C- Anaheim Angels
    While Mauer is a better catching prospect, Jeff Mathis has much more raw power. Mathis, converted to catching when joining the Angels, is transitioning better each year. Jeff has become a solid catcher, improving his caught-stolen percentage each season. If Mathis can turn some of his thirty-nine doubles to home runs, he’ll hit twenty-five home runs immediately. Forget a terrible AFL, Mathis is the top Angel prospect.
    *- Bengie Molina is a free agent at year’s end, and they’ll lean on Mathis to take over in 2005. The Angels ability to mesh rookies and All-Stars will determine their success.

    13. Prince Fielder- 1B- Milwaukee Brewers
    There is not a bat in the minor leagues that I (as a hypothetical GM) would want more than Prince Fielder's. Prince has inherited his father's power, but possesses contact skills that Cecil didn't have. Fielder has very good plate discipline, and struck out much less than the average Midwest Leaguer. While he has the bat, he drops in rankings because he brings little else to the table. His speed is non-existent, and some worry he won't be much as a first basemen. But in Weeks and Fielder, the Brew have a helluva 3-4 for the future.
    *- Milwaukee doesn't like sending hitters to the massive pitcher's park at high-A, so they probably won't. Fielder will be challenged at AA, and his timetable will solely be determined on performance.

    14. Scott Kazmir- LHP- New York Mets
    The Mets took it very slow with Scott Kazmir this year, as the 2002 first-rounder only threw 4.37 innings a start. There have been prior concerns about injury, likely due to his short build and high-torque delivery. Kazmir wasn't as dominating as Cole Hamels, but had better peripheral numbers after a promotion to the FSL. Kazmir throws a great fastball, and some scouts say he depends on it too much. He draws the inevitable Billy Wagner comparisons, but they may be fair as he could end up closing in Flushing.
    *- New York will continue to baby Kazmir, whom they invested $2.15M into. Barring injury that should pay off, whether or not he's starting. Expect him in Shea regularly by 2006.

    15. David Wright- 3B- New York Mets
    In terms of prospect status, the AFL helped David Wright considerably. During that time, Wright jumped over Dallas McPherson as my #2 3B prospect, and climbed into the top-15. There isn't a lot to not like about Wright, he's got power, patience, and speed. Some are worried that he's yet to dominate a level, but the Mets have very high hopes for his 2004 Eastern League performance. I'll second Mike Gullo's comparison to Scott Rolen, Wright's got the total package.
    *- New York is another team who could have great success if they mix veterans and prospects well, as they have both the money and the system. Jim Duquette is counting on Wright to nudge out Ty Wigginton next year.

    16. Grady Sizemore- OF- Cleveland Indians
    Grady Sizemore isn't fantastic at anything, but he's above average in just about everything. I witnessed the outfielder hit a home run in the Futures Game, and was left very impressed. While Sizemore didn't 'dominate' the Eastern League, he was one of the better players. The Indians aren't sure what to make of Sizemore: center or left? Middle of the order, or top? My thinking is that Grady should be a leadoff left fielder, although he's not the fantastic basestealer that some GMs yearn for.
    *- The Indians should send Sizemore to the International League to further refine his skills. Plus, the $13.5 million that Matt Lawton is owed still stands in the way. But when it's time, the Indians Sizemore-Bradley-Gerut outfield will be damn good.

    17. Delmon Young- OF- Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    To say the least, Tampa Bay had a hard time with their top overall choice. It was going to be Ryan Harvey, maybe Kyle Sleeth, even Marc Cornell got a try out. Adam Loewen signed with the Orioles in the final minutes, and it looked like Rickie Weeks was the choice. That was until they saw Delmon Young. Dmitri's brother is a much more complete version of himself, with a sky-high ceiling. He dominated the AFL, and Peter Gammons quotes a scout that is reminded of Albert Belle. Delmon will remain in right field, and may lead the AL in home runs if Chuck Lamar finally got one right.
    *- Predicting Delmon's performance next year is a fool's game, but the D-Rays would be correct to send him to high-A Bakersfield. With the speed of Tampa promotions, he'll get a shot next Spring Training, with a more permanent stay mid-2005.

    18. Bobby Crosby- SS- Oakland Athletics
    Knowing that Miguel Tejada was heading elsewhere after 2003, Billy Beane and co. had high hopes for Bobby Crosby. He exceeded every expectation that could have been set, capturing the PCL Rookie of the Year award. Crosby had 54 extra-base hits, including his own career-high 22HR. He walks a lot, yet balances that with too many strikeouts. He'll show average power, and is a fantastic basestealer (24/28) if the A's utilize that skill. Crosby reminds me of Edgar Renteria with his mix of power and speed.
    *- The only thing that can hold Crosby from starting is a bad enough camp to put Mark Ellis back at shortstop. Bobby will get 500AB in 2004, and is a favorite to land his second straight Rookie of the Year award.

    19. Casey Kotchman- 1B- Anaheim Angels
    When healthy, Casey Kotchman can hit. It's just that first part that holds him back from the top ten, and the second part that keeps him in the top 20. Kotchman has a left-handed swing that rivals only Joe Mauer, and like Mauer, he perfectly commands the strike zone. He'll have to prove he has home run power to end the Will Clark/Mark Grace comparisons, and may turn out to be Rafael Palmiero when all is said and done. Kotchman is a great defender, and could start winning Gold Gloves from year one.
    *- The Angels will likely lose Garret Anderson after 2004, pushing Darin Erstad back to center, allowing Kotchman to step in and join Mathis in the '05 lineup. For now, he'll head to AA, try to stay healthy, and keep tearing the cover off the ball.

    20. Josh Barfield- 2B- San Diego Padres
    Being the son of a former AL home run champ seems to be the easiest way in the top 20, as both Cecil Fielder and Jesse Barfield's sons have spots there. Josh Barfield is much different than his father, as he's a second basemen who has yet to develop more than doubles power. His forty-six doubles led him to being California League MVP, and the Padres hope that his home run total will rise this year. Barfield strikes out too much, and is merely an average defender. He stole 16 bases last year, and has the speed to boost that total.
    *- Josh will be tested in AA, as San Diego hopes to push Barfield to less strikeouts. He was the best 2B prospect before Rickie Weeks came along, and should be in PETCO starting in September of 2005.

    21. Ervin Santana- RHP- Anaheim Angels
    The Minors First said of Santana, "[Santana] has one of the most electric young arms in the minors." And as usual, Mike Gullo is right on the nose. Santana was sensational in high-A, with a H/9 sitting right around 7.00. He struggled a bit when moving to the Texas League, although he only allowed 23 hits in 29.1 innings. Ervin has a mid-90s fastball, along with a great slider as a knock out pitch. I'm not as high on Ervin as other sites, but I concede that he has #2 potential.
    *- Santana will head back to AA this year, and is looking at a September call-p in Anaheim. He'll be starting in 2005, and begin what should be a long rivalry with Rich Harden.

    22. Guillermo Quiroz- C- Toronto Blue Jays
    Months after having his season ended with a collapsed lung, Guillermo Quiroz kept hitting while in the winter league. I remember when Quiroz was the fourth best catcher in the Toronto system (Phelps, Werth, Cash), then drawing comparisons to Henry Blanco. Then something weird started happening...he started hitting. Twenty home runs later, Guillermo Quiroz is a power threat every at-bat. Mix that with a fantastic arm, and you have yourself a top-notch catching prospect.
    *- Since the Blue Jays have Kevin Cash and Greg Myers, Quiroz will get all the time he needs. He’ll start the year in Syracuse, and could have the weak side of a platoon in September.

    23. Clint Nageotte- RHP- Seattle Mariners
    If you like sliders, you’re going to love Mariner right-hander Clint Nageotte. There is little question that Nageotte’s slider is the best of any prospect, which led to a dominating Texas League performance in 2003. His 3.10ERA (higher than most prospects on this list) is caused by a high walk ratio, but I am a believer that control can be learned. Nageotte also boasts a big fastball, a picture of the perfect power pitcher. Refining his changeup would put him in the top 10, for now, just be wowed by those sliders.
    *- I’m under the opinion that the 2005 Mariner rotation will be very different than the current version. I expect Soriano, Nageotte, and prospect #37 will join Moyer and Pineiro full-time next year.

    24. Dustin McGowan- RHP- Toronto Blue Jays
    It’s definitely amusing that the Blue Jays, with their Moneyball regime in place, have three non-college players in the top twenty-five. McGowan is the most unique of the bunch...a high school pitcher. McGowan is a big right-hander that showed plus control in 150+ IP. His K/9 is a little low, but improved upon a move to AA. His H/9 jumped above 9.00 after his promotion, but John Sickels pointed out he was still below Eastern League average. With four plus pitches and a good pitcher’s body, McGowan is the real deal.
    *- Dustin is another of the many pitching prospects on this list that will be in the Majors in 2005. Sure, he might make about five starts this year, but he’ll likely split time between AA and AAA.

    25. J.J. Hardy- SS- Milwaukee Brewers
    J.J. Hardy is a scout’s dream. The kid has contact skills, patience, a bit of power, and sensational defense....at shortstop. Sabermatricians will love his BB/K that is above 1.00. But one thing scares me: a .275 average. Hardy faded late, and his average finished much too low. AA is a long way from the NL Central, so Hardy must boost that average this year. He won’t run much, but he’ll be a wonderful two-hole hitter if things bounce right.
    *- Like most Brewer prospects, Hardy doesn’t have to worry about being blocked. His performance creates its own timetable, and I think the Brewers are hoping for a Midsummer entrance.

    26. Angel Guzman- RHP- Chicago Cubs
    Not often can a player make the top thirty with an injury that ended his season before he threw ninety innings, but then again, few have Angel Guzman’s arm. Reports say Guzman will be back and healthy by the end of Spring Training. When healthy, Guzman has a fantastic fastball, and can change speeds very well. He has a very refined change up, as well as a very good curve. There is still a large injury concern with Guzman, so the Cubs will take it very slow with Guzman this year.
    *- Guzman is the favorite to replace Matt Clement in 2005. He’ll likely get 3-5 Major League starts this year, and spend the rest of his year in Iowa.

    27. Franklin Gutierrez- OF- Los Angeles Dodgers
    There is no question that Franklin Gutierrez is raw. He struck out 131 times in 492AB between high-A and AA, and then 47 more in 160 Winter League AB. But like many Dominican sluggers before him, Gutierrez has power. He hit 20HR in A-ball, and then four more in just 67 Southern League at-bats. Power was the only thing that stayed with him in winter ball, as his contact skills left him. Gutierrez stole twenty bases in the regular season, and is touted with having a plus arm.
    *- Despite a great performance in AA last year, Gutierrez will spend more time there in 2004. This type of player tends to struggle when reach upper levels, so it’s safer predicting a 2006 time of arrival.

    28. Adam Wainwright- RHP- St. Louis Cardinals
    The first player on this list that isn’t on his original team, Adam Wainwright was the key to the J.D. Drew trade for the Cardinals. Teams are intrigued over Wainwright’s 6-6, 220 body, a frame that is usually very resistant to injury. Wainwright’s strikeout rates were alarmingly low, and he really tailed off after joining Team USA in October. Adam doesn’t throw in the mid-90s like scouts used to project, but he mixes his three pitches very well against hitters.
    *- Wainwright should be up by midseason, though there is a chance he beats Dan Haren or Cris Carpenter out of a rotation slot. Expect Wainwright to replace an injured Cardinal before the Midsummer Classic.

    29. John Van Benschoten- RHP- Pittsburgh Pirates
    After watching JVB play baseball, you get the feeling that he would have succeeded in hitting if the Pirates had chosen that route. But Dave Littlefield made a nice move converting the former NCAA home run champ to the mound, where he’s really flourished. Like Dustin McGowan, Van Benschoten’s H/9 rate was above 9.00 in the Eastern League, but still below league average. Watching him at the Futures Game, I was very impressed by his curveball, a pitch he threw quite often.
    *- The Pirates worry about their former first-rounder’s stamina, so you might not see Van Benschoten in PNC Park this year. He still must develop his secondary pitches, but should replace Kris Benson in 2005.

    30. Jason Bay- OF- Pittsburgh Pirates
    Being in three organizations in oen year normally doesn’t reflect a good player, but Jason Bay is the exception to that rule. The Mets made a big mistake trading Bay to the Padres in order to land Steve Reed, a deadline deal gone wrong. Bay was sensational in the PCL, with a .951OPS, 20HR in 307AB, and 23 stolen bases. He was a key component in the Brian Giles trade, and quickly justified the Bucs end of the deal. His OPS was .950 in eighty-seven Major League at-bats, including eleven extra-base hits.
    *- Bay, along with Kaz Matsui and Edwin Jackson, is a favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year. He’ll play an outfield corner spot for the Pirates, and should sit in the middle of Lloyd McClendon’s lineup.

    31. Bobby Jenks- RHP- Anaheim Angels
    I imagine this pick will draw as much criticism as any other choice, because I rank Jenks much higher than other systems. I see Bartolo Colon in Jenks, fitting as they will soon be teammates. Jenks has a huge fastball, but had more success not trying to register triple digits last season. His curveball, like Colon, can be unhittable at times, and led to a fantastic K/9 rate. Jenks continued his success in winter ball, but like always, his problem will be control. And like Colon, his weight.
    *- Jenks only managed 16 starts in AA due to injury, but he was fantastic. He’ll be in AAA this year, and is a good bet to make a Rafael Soriano impact before getting a full-time job in 2005.

    32. Joe Blanton- RHP- Oakland Athletics
    Moneyball glorified every selection the A’s made in the 2002 draft, but only Blanton has panned out like Billy Beane had hoped. The A’s sent the right-hander to the Midwest League last year, and he didn’t have much competition. Blanton was one of the older pitchers in his league, and only allowed nineteen walks in 133IP. His success continued greatly in the Texas League, and the A’s are hoping that Blanton flies through the system like Rich Harden did a year ago.
    *- Oakland’s rotation is flawless, and PCL pitcher of the year Justin Duchscerer is one of the best sixth starters in the business. Blanton will take his time in AA, but will probably be looking at a mid-2005 entrance.

    33. Dallas McPherson- 3B- Anaheim Angels
    Much ado was made when Dallas McPherson hit a home run off Randy Johnson when the Big Unit was rehabbing, and it started to tell the story on McPherson’s power potential. The third basemen his twenty-three home runs last season, but about half of those was in a red-hot twenty game span. He walked enough to keep his OBP over .400, and even stole some bases. The Texas League proved to be no contest, as his OBP and BB/K all improved after promotion.
    *- The Angels spent a lot of money, and as a result, likely won’t be able to afford Troy Glaus after this season. Anaheim is hoping McPherson continues to hit well, as he’ll likely be handed the starting job next season.

    34. Gavin Floyd- RHP- Philadelphia Phillies
    That 2001 draft just can’t go wrong. First there was Joe Mauer, then Prior, third was Teixeira. The fourth pick was Gavin Floyd, a high school pitcher that the Phillies would give more money than any draft pick they’ve ever had. He’s done a good job as a professional, and despite a record under .500, was very successful in the FSL. His low K/9 scares me, but Floyd’s calling card is control anyway. His fantastic curve should yield more strikeouts, but Floyd’s potential is enough to warrant this selection.
    *- Floyd seems to be doing a level a year, and should spend much of 2004 in AA. The Phillie rotation will likely lose Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton after next season, possibly making way for Floyd.

    35. Scott Hairston- 2B- Arizona Diamondbacks
    Hairston shows up really high on a lot of prospect charts, despite not producing like he should have last season. Hairston’s average was below .280, his OBP below .350. But he has much more power than the normal second basemen, is a very hot and cold player. He won’t run much, instead should produce more like a Marcus Giles-type. There are rumors that Hairston will move to the outfield because of his bad defense, but I don’t see that happening.
    *- Robbie Alomar is signed for one season, and for good reason. Hairston might be sent back to AA to start the year, but the Diamondbacks will hope he hits enough to warrant a promotion. He should be the starting 2005 second basemen.

    36. James Loney- 1B- Los Angeles Dodgers
    One of many first basemen who endured wrist pain last season, Loney seems to have been effected the most. He only hit seven home runs in the Florida State League, but showcased his potential with more than thirty doubles. The twenty-year-old has good defense, but needs to start walking more to become a prototypical first basemen. He still has some convincing to do, but for now I’ll say that Loney is a lot closer to Will Clark than Casey Kotchman is.
    *- Loney will be sent to AA next year, and expectations will be high. The DePodesta regime will not like a first basemen that doesn’t walk, so Loney may be in a different location when it’s all said and done.

    37. Travis Blackley- LHP- Seattle Mariners
    This kid may not have the potential of some pitchers, but he sure has the results. The 2003 Texas League Pitcher of the Year, Blackley led all minor leaguers with seventeen wins last year. His H/9 and K/9 were good for a soft-throwing southpaw, but Blackley understands the art of pitching. The Australian sets up hitters well, changes speeds, and throws a plus curve to strike them out. He walks more than his scouting report would suggest, but that shouldn’t be a problem at upper levels.
    *- Blackley is behind Soriano and Nageotte on the depth chart, but the Mariners will stick him on Jamie Moyer in camp. Travis should have a job in 2005, unless Rett Johnson leapfrog’s the Aussie.

    38. Chin-Hui Tsao- RHP- Colorado Rockies
    Most rankings have Tsao much higher than thirty-eighth. But when I look at this list five years down the road, I really think this is where Tsao’s numbers belong. In terms of ceiling, Tsao’s name would come in just behind the top four pitchers listed. But, the first Taiwanese to start a Major League game will be throwing in Coors Field, a park that isn’t very good to power pitchers. If Tsao is dealt somewhere else, he belongs in the top 20, but for now, Denver drags his ranking.
    *- He should start where he finished last year, which was Denver. Tsao looked mediocre when I saw him against the New York Mets last year, likely because he had tired late in the season.

    39. Dioner Navarro- C- New York Yankees
    The lone Yankee. I know that Dioner is not headed to the Rangers in the A-Rod deal, as the Bombers will probably send Navarro off for Jose Vidro midseason. The catcher came out of nowhere this season, but after a promotion to AA, went red-hot. In 208 Eastern League AB, Navarro his .341, slugged 19 extra bases, and controlled the strike zone well. He’s called ‘Pudgito’ for his defense behind the plate, and should be a fantastic addition for Montreal...er, the Yanks.
    *- His organization will determine his future. My guess is the Yanks will send Navarro back to AA to boost his numbers (and thus trade value), but if he’s moved to another organization, could start there in ’05.

    40. John Maine- RHP- Baltimore Orioles
    Maine’s 2003 statistics look fake at first glance. 91 hits in 146.1 innings? 185 strikeouts but only thirty-eight walks? Can that be for real? It is, as the former collegiate starter proved to be a little too advanced for low-A hitters, and even high-A batters for that matter. Maine relies on his fastball more than most starters, and his secondary pitches aren’t refined. Look for him to struggle a bit this season, but to regain his status as his breaking pitch improves.
    *- Maine will start the year in AA, and I don’t expect him to move quickly. A 2006 entrance is the most likely guess, though Maine could surprise and even end up in Camden this year.

    41. Jeremy Hermida- OF- Florida Marlins
    Normally grouped with Jeff Francouer, Hermida blows his fellow NL Eastern outfield prospect out of the water. Hermida looks to be a leadoff hitter in the making, as he hit for contact last season, drew eighty walks, and is fast. On the basepaths, Hermida was only caught twice in thirty tries, as good of a stolen base threat as anyone on this list. He is said to play centerfield well, and might overthrown Juan Pierre if he moves fast enough.
    *- The Marlins will be sure not to push Hermida, likely scooting him along at one level a year. Pierre’s contract runs out after 2005, so Florida likely has 2006 circled on Hermida’s calendar.

    42. Adam Loewen- LHP- Baltimore Orioles
    I’m always hesitant to put players on this list solely based on potential, but Loewen makes me bend the rules. A 2002 draft-and-follow, Loewen signed minutes before the deadline last year as the Devil Rays were salivating with the top choice overall. The Canadian southpaw has a great fastball and curveball, and is said to throw his change up quite often. He did well in seven starts last year, but has to prove he can last a full season to become a bona fide prospect.
    *- Loewen is probably on the John Maine path, which means that he’ll be sent to low-A to boost his confidence, and then get a midseason promotion to high-A.

    43. Jeff Francis- LHP- Colorado Rockies
    Here’s my guarantee: you won’t find another prospect ranking in the world that has Jeff Francis in the top fifty but right here. The reason behind that is an e-mail that I saved thanks to Kevin Goldstein’s Baseball America Prospect Report. In Francis’ last fifteen starts, he went 10-1, 1.06, showing the type of prospect he really is. Francis has a big body and is very durable, but needs to refine his pitches before blasting off.
    *- I’m very high on Francis, and I expect the Canadian to dominate AA in 2004. With Tsao and Francis atop their rotation, the Rockies should boost that road record in coming years.

    44. Merkin Valdez- RHP- San Francisco Giants
    The Giants didn’t expect Manuel Mateo, a throw-in from the Braves in the Russ Ortiz deal a year ago, to contribute much to the organization. But after adding a couple of years and seeing his name changed, Valdez has skyrocketed atop the Giants’ system. El Mago was far too advanced for low-A last season, dominating in every start. Don’t be surprised if Valdez is converted to a reliever down the road, he has a very light frame and an undeveloped off speed pitch.
    *- The Giants have made noise that Valdez will compete for a rotation spot, though I don’t really believe they would give him the job before he’s even touched high-A. I would test Valdez with AA this year, and maybe let him really compete next Spring Training.

    45. Denny Bautista- RHP- Baltimore Orioles
    No one impressed me more at the Futures Game than Denny Bautista, a huge right-hander that the Orioles acquired for Jeff Conine last season. Bautista, a cousin of Pedro and Ramon Martinez, throws a fantastic fastball that was the best of any pitcher at the Futures Game. His curveball was impressive as well, but I won’t be shocked to see Bautista to become a reliever. Adding control and weight to his repertoire would make Denny a top-notch prospect.
    *- While his H/9 and K/9 were good in AA, a 3.71 isn’t acceptable for a prospect. Bautista will go back to AA this year, moving from the Southern League to the Eastern League. With the Orioles horrendous pitching staff, Bautista could be starting come August.

    46. Ryan Wagner- RHP- Cincinnati Reds
    Cincinnati was justified in choosing Ryan Wagner from the University of Houston last year, as no other draftee was even as close to being ready as Wagner. Ryan broke Billy Wagner’s NCAA record of strikeouts per nine innings last year, and his slider continued to strike people out in the Major Leagues. I was lucky enough to watch Wagner on TV for one of his four Major League innings, and I was left very impressed. His fastball/slider combo could make him a top-20 reliever this year.
    *- Unfortunately, the word from Reds camp is that Danny Graves will become the Reds closer, and not Wagner. Rumors of moving Ryan to the rotation have been squashed, and Wagner should become closer as soon as Graves proves to be terrible.

    47. Jason Stokes- 1B- Florida Marlins
    This is when sensational power overrides all else. My senses tell me that a first basemen that hit .258 in high-A, and then .145 in the AFL should be ignored. But Stokes smacked 48 extra-base hits last year with a bum wrist, which is the reason I speak of his fantastic power. Stokes struck out 135 times in the regular season, and more than 35% of the time in the AFL. His plate discipline is terrible, but as long as Stokes can hit the ball four hundred feet, he’ll stay on my list.
    *- The Marlins might want to consider sending Stokes back to high-A next year, as Hee Seop Choi allows them to take it very slowly with Stokes. Rushing someone with this potential would be foolish.

    48. Felix Pie- OF- Chicago Cubs
    In his short time as a professional PEE-ay has drawn the comparisons to fellow Dominican outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Sammy Sosa. I disagree wholeheartedly with that presumption, Pie will never have that type of power. Instead, I expect Pie to be a leadoff hitter down the road, though he has a ways to go. He got caught thirteen times in thirty-two stolen base attempts last year, a number much too high for someone with his speed. But Felix plays the best outfield defense in the minors, and isn’t as immune to walking as Guerrero and Sosa were at this age.
    *- Pie will move to high-A next year, but the Cubs will be much more open to a promotion is he succeeds. The team expects Felix to move Corey Patterson to left field down the road, but that’s not until 2007.

    49. Blake Hawkesworth- RHP- St. Louis Cardinals
    Before Wainwright came onto the scene, Blake Hawkesworth was all the Cardinals had in their minor league system. Hawkesworth is very similar to former top prospect Dan Haren in size and performance, and could have the same type of meteoric rise to the Majors. Blake has a very good curveball, and low to mid-90s heat. His peripherals were good in high-A, and Hawkesworth was far too advanced for Midwest League hitters.
    *- The Cardinals will likely send Hawkesworth back to high-A, but I suspect Blake will be in AA by July. A mid-2005 call-up is probable, but you won’t see Hawkesworth regularly in Busch Stadium until 2006.

    50. David DeJesus- OF- Kansas City Royals
    Another sabermatrician dream, all DeJesus has to do is keep his OBP above .400, and he’ll keep coming up in the rankings. Like Jeremy Reed, DeJesus plays defense and occasionally steals bases on instincts, but doesn’t nearly have the tools that other players on this list do. DeJesus can do just about everything on the baseball diamond, and even showed a power spike in the Arizona Fall League. If he could keep that up, the town of Kansas City could forget about Carlos Beltran very quickly.
    *- DeJesus will start the year in Omaha, but isn’t likely to finish there. He’ll replace Beltran in center in 2005, and is probably the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year that year.

    That’s the top 50, please leave any comments, questions, or suggestions in the comment box below...

    WTNYFebruary 16, 2004
    The Trade
    By Bryan Smith

    Sometimes there are moves that make me post when I don’t plan on it. Sometimes the history of baseball is changed on a certain day, when no one saw it coming. I thought the largest news of this weekend would be the Tampa Bay Devil Rays opening camp...I was wrong.

    Alex Rodriguez, the best player in baseball, the best non-Bonds player of my lifetime, has gone to the Yankees. My hate of the Bronx Bombers is like many baseball fans, hate born from pure envy. Being a Chicago Cubs fan, that envy grows considerably. And today, my envy grows even further.

    George saw a problem when Aaron Boone went down, and like he always does, sent Brian Cashman out to fix it. While we all mocked the Yankees for acquiring the likes of Tyler Houston and Mike Lamb, it was the Yankee front office that was laughing. They have no problem pushing their payroll over $200 million for a winner, for Alex Rodriguez.

    Alex’s resume is fantastic, and he deserves a lot more than one MVP trophy on his mantle. His OPS has been above .900 each of the last six seasons, although it has dropped each of the last four. Rodriguez slugged above .600, and got on-base at above a .390 clip every year since 2000. He stole 17 bases last season, and brought in 118 runners.

    By comparison, Alfonso Soriano isn’t too bad either. Soriano proved last year that 2002 was no fluke and that Juan Samuel is not his best comparison. Soriano’s OBP will never touch .390, and his SLG is far from .600. But Alfonso is good for 35-50SB a year, and should near 40HR yearly. In the last three seasons, Soriano’s road OPS is .118 better away from Yankee Stadium, and he has a 1.248OPS in 41 Arlington at-bats.

    While Texas will catch a lot of flak for trading away the best player they ever acquired, this is not a terrible deal for the Rangers. They are only on the hook for $3M to A-Rod this year, although they will pay him $43M more, and owe him deferred money. Soriano will come fairly cheap as this year was his first with arbitration, but his salary should gradually increase each of the next two seasons. The Rangers will be able to afford a long-term contract with Alfonso when Chan Ho Park’s vicious contract comes to an end.

    For the Yankees, this deal has nothing to do with money. Rodriguez is a great addition no doubt, although his home/road splits aren’t perfect. Arlington has been very nice to A-Rod, as his OPS has been .143 better there since becoming a Ranger. He’s hit six home runs in fifty-four Yankee Stadium at-bats though, so don’t look for Rodriguez to fall off the MVP ballot. He’ll provide better offense than Soriano did, but he’ll come with more controversy.

    If you listen to the rumors so far, Alex Rodriguez will move to the hot corner next year, keeping Derek Jeter at short. This move is guaranteed to catch criticism from the sabermetric community, as Rodriguez is a much better shortstop than Jeter. Rodriguez is better with David Pinto’s probalistic model of range, significantly superior in range factor, and while Rodriguez ranks 10th using UZR, Jeter ranks last. But Jeter is Mr. Yankee, the newest captain of the Bronx Bombers, they can’t possibly ask him to move.

    They should. Jeter could be a very good third basemen, or move to centerfield, a la Robin Yount. No matter what, this pushes the third base problem the Yankees had to second base. The team has the following competitors for this job:

    Miguel Cairo
    Enrique Wilson
    Homer Bush

    Yikes. This makes the team’s acquisition of Lamb look pointless, just as the Travis Lee addition raises questions to why they are paying Tony Clark. I’m fairly confident that Miguel Cairo will get the job in Spring Training, which is laughable. But as a friend pointed out, Jose Vidro will be available by the All-Star Break, and could give the Yankees this type of depth chart:

    C- Jorge Posada
    1B- Jason Giambi
    2B- Jose Vidro
    SS- Derek Jeter
    3B- Alex Rodriguez
    LF- Hideki Matsui
    CF- Kenny Lofton
    RF- Gary Sheffield
    DH- Bernie Williams

    Wow. The Yankees have assured their place as AL East favorites, and the Evil Empire has tightened their grip on the rest of Major League Baseball.

    Moving back to Texas, this creates some defensive questions in Dallas as well. Do you move Michael Young back to shortstop? Does Alfonso Soriano move to the outfield? Can Eric Young get in the lineup? I would assume that Soriano stays at his position, giving the Rangers this offense:

    C- Einar Diaz
    1B- Mark Teixeira
    2B- Alfonso Soriano
    SS- Michael Young
    3B- Hank Blalock
    LF- Brian Jordan
    CF- Laynce Nix
    RF- Kevin Mench
    DH- Brad Fullmer

    Not bad. Teixeira should breakout this year, giving the team a very good middle of the order. Hopefully Buck Showalter will realize what Joe Torre didn’t: Soriano is not a leadoff hitter. The problem is, no one really is on this team. If Eric Young could get in the lineup he would be, but that would entail beating out the young Nix in centerfield.

    As it stands right now, no one knows if Jose Contreras will be in the deal. I’m very high on Contreras, and if he’s still a Yankee, will probably be in my top 5 Cy Young candidates for 2004. He would become the immediate ace in Texas, while he’ll be fourth in the powerful Yankee staff. I don’t think he’ll be included in this deal, which means the Bombers clearly win.

    While the Yankees do win this deal, it won’t be as much as the media makes it out to be. These are the dog days of February, and any chance at drama will be exaggerated. This trade works on both ends, and I’ll give John Hart a thumbs-up if he can get Conteras in there too. But please Torre: move Jeter!

    WTNYFebruary 14, 2004
    New Home
    By Bryan Smith

    I've finally left Blogspot for a new home, and I'm lucky enough to be joining the powerful team of writers here at All-Baseball.com. I'd like to first thank my readers for making this possible, and secondly Christian Ruzich for inviting me to his establisment.

    I'm especially excited to be joining a sensational team of writers that includes Ruzich, Will Carroll, Alex Belth, Jon Weisman, Peter White, and Mark McClusky. I'm in constant awe of what these guys produce, and I am still in disbelief that I can be found on the same URL as that group.

    A few new features have been thrown onto the site:

    - Leave Comments at the end of every post. I'm really happy about this, and I would love for my readers to comment as often as possible. I've seen the dialogue that other sites produce, and I hope we can do the same here.

    - My link system is hardly finished, but I'm working on it. The daily reads are finished, and are the 15 or so sites that I must visit every day. It will be hard for blogs to break into this group, and it hardly means that other blogs aren't 'daily' material, I just haven't gotten there yet. The 'Blogs of Note' section is for the other blogs that I read, and for those people who request link exchanges. Blogs can come and go off this section, and I hope that anyone whose blog isn't on there will drop a line in the comment section so I can add it.

    - Finally, you can search my archives or navigate through the calendar on my sidebar.

    I hope the site looks as good to you as it does to me, and I want to thank the guys at All-Baseball again for having me...

    Alex Rodriguez may or may not be headed to New York when I write this, but the rumors are already flying. While jumping from A-Rod to Soriano is a fantastic improvement, it still leaves one giant hole in the Yankee lineup.

    If George becomes so enfatuated with Derek Jeter that he can't move him to the hot corner, I'll be sick. Alex Rodriguez is one of the games' best SS, and Jeter is among the worst. I think Derek could be a great third basemen, think Cal Ripken.

    A-Rod would do great in New York, and it would greatly increase the team's chances of making the World Series. I'm really impressed that this team has gone so hard after a player of his caliber, and I'm in awe at the payroll that Steinbrenner will have next year. Winning is winning, and once again, every non-Yankee fan should be envious right now, because your owner doesn't care nearly as much as the Boss.

    That's it for today, and I probably won't be making a post until Tuesday, but for now, leave me a comment.

    WTNYFebruary 12, 2004
    Central Questions
    By Bryan Smith

    Sorry, can’t bring a whole lot of writing to the table today. I have the NL Central questions, but not the corresponding questions that the Easts got. And no, this is not East Coast bias, I’m a central boy born and bred. Kyle Farnsworth, Guillermo Mota, and B.J. Ryan all avoided salary arbitration yesterday...which was the largest story of February 11. I’ll be back tomorrow with more...

    Chicago Cubs

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. How does Dusty organize the veteran middle of the infield?
    2. Maddux or Cruz in the fifth spot?
    3. Will Derrek Lee reach the potential he had with the Padres and Marlins?
    4. Can Joe Borowski keep red-hot with Hawkins breathing down his back?
    5. Will one of the Cubs’ starters have their arms fall off?

    Houston Astros

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Can the bullpen recuperate from losing their best reliever?
    2. How do the veteran starters pitch?
    3. Are Biggio and Bagwell really down the drain?
    4. Is Richard Hidalgo as good as the 2004 version shows?
    5. Will the lack of depth come back to haunt the team?

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. How does the back end of the rotation do?
    2. Does Jason Isringhausen have a genuine set-up man?
    3. Is Jeff Suppan the Pirate or Red Sox version?
    4. Who plays the 1B/LF spot that Pujols doesn’t use?
    5. Who plays second base?

    Pittsburgh Pirates

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Will Jason Bay make noise in the Rookie of the Year talks?
    2. Will Craig Wilson finally get some playing time?
    3. Can Kris Benson bounce back from injury?
    4. Is there a person in baseball who knows any reliever on this team?
    5. Oliver Perez. Breakout or no?

    Cincinnati Reds

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Is Adam Dunn anything more than a present day Rob Deer?
    2. Can Ken Griffey Jr. bounce back from injury?
    3. Is there any way of avoiding having the worst rotation in baseball?
    4. Will Ryan Wagner get the closer’s role?
    5. Is Austin Kearns ready to become a superstar?

    Milwaukee Brewers

    1. Will Ned Yost realize Keith Ginter is a better choice than Junior Spivey?
    2. What will Scott Podsednik do in year 2?
    3. Is there a starter in the Milwaukee organization worth talking about?
    4. Will Dan Kolb continue his end of the year success?
    5. ETAs of J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart?

    WTNYFebruary 11, 2004
    AL East Questions
    By Bryan Smith

    More lull in the baseball world, as the news of the day consisted of Fred McGriff, Terry Mulholland, and Eric Owens. I’ll root for Fred McGriff, though it will take an injury or two for him to catch onto a Major League roster. I would bet on McGriff playing baseball in 2004, but against him hitting the nine home runs necessary for 500.

    Today I’ll ask the preview questions for the AL East, as that was the first preview that Mr. Gammons unveiled in his rounds around the Majors. Here goes...

    New York Yankees

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. “I don’t know is on third.”
    2. Can a team succeed with a defense that bad?
    3. Will Steve Karsay and Jon Lieber revert to old form?
    4. Which pitcher (Vazquez, Brown, Contreras) really steps up?
    5. Is Jason Giambi capable of his MVP numbers of 2000?

    Aaron Boone threw this team for a curveball they didn’t see coming. George thought he had every base covered, and then in a blink of an eye, third became exposed. It didn’t take long for the team to realize their infield depth extended as far as Enrique Wilson and Miguel Cairo. One Tyler Houston and Mike Lamb later, and the situation is still nerve-wracking. After surviving a scare from the team’s rival in last year’s playoffs, George shouldn’t take anything for granted this year. If the Yanks are in second in July, who is managing?

    Boston Red Sox
    1. “What’s on second.”
    2. Will Byung-Hyun Kim be a good starter, especially with numerous Yankee Stadium confrontations?
    3. Can the lesser-known hitters (Ortiz, Nixon, Mueller, etc.) stay on fire?
    4. How much of an impact will Keith Foulke make?
    5. Will the unresolved contract/trade disputes with Pedro, Nomar, and Manny distract the team?

    Under Theo Epstein, the Red Sox have a vision that hadn’t existed in years. In fact, if you already haven’t, go to Baseball Prospectus and read his interviews immediately. Theo and his staff know baseball so well, that they’ve transformed the Red Sox from a team chasing the Wild Card into a team determined to end such talk of a streak. It’s very smart to not expect the offense the 2003 team generated, but with Schilling and Foulke, scores won’t need to be so high. Terry Francona’s first worry should be making Nomar, Manny, and the contract-disputing Pedro feel right at home.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Who closes?
    2. Will Josh Towers continue his success?
    3. Which hitters breakout, and which regress?
    4. Ted Lilly: 2003 season repeated or breakout candidate?
    5. Can prospects make their presence felt on this team?

    Speaking of good GMs, J.P. Ricciardi had a sensational offseason. He got Miguel Batista at a fraction of the cost that the Angels paid Kelvin Escobar, and also added Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen to the pitching staff. It’s imperative for the team that Eric Hinske or Josh Phelps (or both?) breaks out this year, as the team needs a #5 hitter after the likes of Delgado and Wells. While Theo may have attempted a bullpen by committee last year, check Toronto for how it really works.

    Baltimore Orioles
    1. Will Miguel Tejada’s road numbers (.303/.377/.497) become his 2004 overall stats?
    2. Can Melvin Mora stay in the .300s?
    3. Will an opponent ever be fooled by that staff?
    4. Is Omar Daal completely worthless?
    5. How will Jorge Julio do with high-pressure situations now that the team is competing?

    Let’s just say I’m not high on the Baltimore Orioles. Sure, Peter Angelos can spend his Expos to D.C. lawsuit money on offense all he wants, but you can’t win without pitching. I mean, Rodrigo Lopez? Omar Daal? Eric DuBose? Are they serious? I’ll sell anyone 85 wins, and I’m happy with making the bold prediction that they won’t finish .500. I love Camden Yards as much as the next guy, but Baltimore fans will have to endure bad baseball just a little longer.

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Which pitchers will Lou Piniella pick to start?
    2. What is Rocco Baldelli, v. 2?
    3. Can a Tino, Lugo, Rey, Blum infield come close to replacement level?
    4. Will Jose Cruz be one of the offseason’s best additions?
    5. Who closes?

    If I mention GMs, how can I not spend time bashing Chuck LaMar? I mean, how many years under 75 wins can you have before getting fired? I know that Piniella runs the team anyway, but Vince Namoli really should consider firing his GM. The team shouldn’t be expecting much out of Rocco Baldelli, but I’m a big believer in Aubrey Huff and Victor Zambrano. The team has brought in a lot of veteran pitching, hoping to find that one diamond in the rough. It won’t work, and the Devil Rays will stare last place in the face again.

    We’ll head to the Centrals tomorrow, starting with my Cubbies.

    WTNYFebruary 10, 2004
    NL East Questions
    By Bryan Smith

    Not much going on in the baseball world...hell, I mean a Ron Villone signing is the biggest news. Bill Bavasi is such a terrible GM, one million dollars? Bavasi, have you ever heard of peripheral numbers? No, ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. Yikes.

    Anyway, as I did last week with a few articles, today’s piece is based off a ESPN article that I read over the weekend. Peter Gammons has started his divisional breakdowns, already accomplishing the Easts. Gammons is my favorite baseball writer in the world, and I wanted to further develop the questions he asked in each team’s preview.

    Below you will find the five most pressing questions for an NL East team, as well as a quick synopsis of the team going into Spring Training. I’ll write much more in-depth previews next month, but a Spring Training preview ain’t bad either. Granted, some of the questions might overlap with Gammons, so Peter, please don’t sue me.

    Atlanta Braves

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Can J.D. Drew ever top the 425AB mark in a season?
    2. Will the horrendous bullpen surrounding Smoltz ever get the ball to him?
    3. Does John Thomson have the stuff the team hopes?
    4. Are rookies Johnny Estrada and Adam LaRoche ready for the Big Show?
    5. Who pitches in the fifth slot?

    Much ado will be made on the Braves not being able to continue their divisional streak, but they are used to it. But this is top to bottom the worst team Bobby Cox has been handed in the last ten seasons. While I am not going to start questioning Cox and Mazzone, they are going to need to work magic this season. Filling holes left by Javy, Sheff, and Maddux look daunting, and the bullpen is pitiful. But this team has a will to win, and Bobby Cox knows how to manage...during the regular season.

    Florida Marlins

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. How will Sophomore year treat Hee Seop Choi and Miguel Cabrera?
    2. Can A.J. Burnett be effective in 20-25 starts?
    3. Does Armando Benitez have the stuff to close outside of the spotlights of New York?
    4. Will Beckett, Penny, and Pavano ride the success they had in the playoffs?
    5. Can the team replace it’s heart and soul, Ivan Rodriguez, with an accused felon like Ramon Castro?

    Going back to back is damn hard, just ask the Angels, the Diamondbacks, and well, the 1997 Marlins. While Florida had a great playoff run, Jack McKeon likely will not be able to build the motivation that made Florida the best team from mid-May on. They don’t promise to be as strong up the middle as they were a year ago, but have a ton of players that could breakout at once. If Choi, Cabrera, Castro, Beckett, Penny and Pavano all have big years, they should win the division.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. Can Pat the Bat bounce back from an ugly 2003?
    2. Will Marlon Byrd build off the success he had in the leadoff role?
    3. Will Rheal Cormier stay that good, and will Roberto Hernandez stay that bad?
    4. Should Brett Myers and Eric Milton be counted at the back end of the rotation?
    5. Can star and leader Jim Thome stay healthy again?

    Everyone, including myself, is calling the Phillies the 2000s version of the Cleveland Indians of a decade ago. The Phils are moving into a new stadium with a lot of pressure, and Larry Bowa is under a lot of stress. The spotlight will be shined brightly on the manager the first two months, who needs to be in first place by the end of April to keep his job. If not, Joe Kerrigan may receive another shot at managing, and the Phillie chemistry would be much improved. Billy Wagner was a sensational addition, plus Burrell and Bell can’t be THAT bad again...can they?

    Montreal Expos

    Five Pressing Questions
    1. First and foremost, will Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson breakout like some, including myself, are predicting?
    2. Surely Frank Robinson doesn’t let Rocky Biddle close games again, does he?
    3. Will Wilkerson or Everett hold up in center, or does Endy Chavez need to play out of necessity?
    4. If Zach Day stays healthy, can he be a stud?
    5. Will Livan Hernandez continue pitching masterfully, as he did a year ago?

    I hate to say it, but there are actually things to like about this team. Vidro, Cabrera, Johnson, Wilkerson, Everett...oh, they have the offense. And with Hernandez plus a barrage of young, high-ceiling pitchers, this team could make some noise. Eventually they’ll finish fourth, again, but don’t be surprised if they are in first place in mid-May. Chad Cordero is the right choice for closer, not Rocky Biddle. And here’s to hoping that the Day for Milton Bradley trade ends up working for both teams.

    New York Mets
    1. How does Kaz Matsui do in year one, and can Jose Reyes really play short?
    2. Will the Mike Piazza position dilemma become a distraction?
    3. Can Braden Looper hope to fare any better than Armando Benitez did as Mets closer?
    4. How do the host of veteran starters pitch this year?
    5. Can the team avoid the health problems that plagued them in 2004?

    From the beginning, I said that Art Howe moving to the National League was a bad idea. Throwing someone with a learned school of thought into that environment will not work. I think getting Rick Peterson back will help this organization that appears headed in the right direction. Mixing David Wright, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber, and other prospects will be key in determining if this team will smell the playoffs during Jim Duquette’s tenure. They might not have the right man for the job, but they sure do have the system.

    I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at Gammons’ favorite division...the AL East.

    WTNYFebruary 09, 2004
    Maddux
    By Bryan Smith

    As a Cubs fan, to me there is only one free agent left on the market. I don’t care what happens to Travis Lee, Ugueth Urbina, or even Randall Simon. My hot stove interest has dwindled to cool, but I still check my Internet hourly for word on this generation’s #2 pitcher. Sure, I’ll concede that the hated Astros got the best pitcher in the last fifteen years, but no one has come close to Greg Maddux in the National League.

    While I would love for Greg Maddux to join my team, am I overestimating his ability? Do I simply want Maddux because what he’s done in his 571 starts prior to 2004 rather than his possible contributions this season? Does 1994-1998 cloud my thoughts of Maddux so much that I don’t clearly see 1999-2003?

    The consensus rumor around the media is that Greg Maddux has been offered a contract by one team, but has received calls from four. The Cubs admit to making an offer believed to be worth between $14-16M over two seasons. The Cardinals’ pitching staff is offering to defer money so that ownership will sign the right-hander. Frank McCourt’s Dodgers placed a phone call days within the ownership change. The fourth team is a bit of a mystery. Jeffrey Loria of the Marlins announced his team will not make a formal offer to Maddux, leaving many to believe the mystery team is the Baltimore Orioles.

    Greg Maddux is a wanted individual, until cost comes into play. Is Maddux worth between seven and nine million dollars a season at age 37?

    Mad-dog won sixteen games last season, meaning the last time he failed to win fifteen games was during the Reagan presidency (1987). His 1994 and 1995 seasons were both in the top 5 for WHIP and ERA against league average since 1900. His 1997 season had the best BB/9 against league average ever. He’s renowned for being a student of the game, as well as for teaching his art to young pitchers. A true class act, Maddux was one of the Braves best additions ever, and along with Lou Brock for one of the Cub’s worst.

    Along with all the great numbers, Maddux has some negative indicators. His H/9 has gotten worse each of the last four seasons, topping the 9.00 mark for the first time since 1998. The K/9 also is on the decline, 5.11, which he hasn’t had since 1989. His 3.96ERA was the highest since 1987, his rookie season in the Major Leagues.

    Many people accuse Maddux of being a five-inning pitcher, but his IP/GS last year was 6.06. That was better than the 5.86 in 2002, but hardly close to the years that he bested seven. Maddux was actually significantly better in innings 4-6 than 1-3 last year, giving up a .625OPS against a .779. His largest struggles came in the first fifteen pitches, the only group that his SLG allowed was greater than .500. Maddux gives six good innings on most outings, and surviving the first is his biggest key.

    Turner Field has been very good to Maddux, as his ERA has been 0.76 less at home than on the road the last three seasons. It was 1.20 better last year at home, as his road ERA was an ugly 4.61. But as some consolation, Maddux had only a 3.03ERA after the All-Star Break last year, after a 4.63 before the break. After June he warmed up, and finished in top form including a hard 3-1 loss in Game 3 of the NLDS when Mark Prior outpitched the veteran.

    Could Maddux be joining the team that beat him in the playoffs, or will he go for their largest rivals? Will Frank McCourt start his term out with a boom, or will Peter Angelos throw another curveball into this offseason? First of all, let me eliiminate the Orioles. Maddux thrives against the 7-9 spots in the order, a spot much weaker in NL lineups than in the AL. Greg would not do well in the American League, and I think he would recognize that.

    You can’t blame Frank McCourt: in order to get the Los Angeles fans to like him, the new owner wanted to surprise the city. The team showed interest in Greg Maddux, implying that McCourt’s regime would be filled with the free agent signings that this offseason so desperately lacked. While this is a good symbol to send out, it also will come with a bad message. The Dodgers don’t need pitching at all, and should be spending all available resources on offense. They know this, and have given a town hope that will surely be left unfulfilled.

    St. Louis Cardinal pitchers want Greg Maddux. Matt Morris, along with a few other players, have asked to defer money in order to sign the right-hander. If the Cardinals get creative, they might be able to have Maddux sign a deal that defers money as well. But there is one problem: the team has no money to offer. Scott Rolen is signed to a huge contract, and the team is working on long-term deals for Albert Pujols and Matt Morris. Throw in the large amount of money that Jim Edmonds and Edgar Renteria are owed, and the numbers just don’t work out. This is a good thought by the Cardinal pitching staff, but one that won’t be followed by ownership.

    That leaves one team, my Cubs. I’ve thought for awhile the team would scoop Maddux up, and it is likely that I will be right. Maddux should be a good change of pace from the hard-throwing group that makes up the rest of the rotation, and will renew the thought that the Cubs have the best rotation in baseball...not the Astros. Bringing back one of their largest mistakes would be a good move by the Tribune Company, though it will come at a cost.

    Scott Boras is tough. He’ll milk every dollar an organization has left for his client, and appears to be doing that with Maddux. In response to the offer the Cubs made, it’s believed that the Maddux side sent back a counteroffer of two years and $18M. This would put the Cubs well over the $90M mark, a barrier they have never topped before.

    Is Maddux worth that kind of money? Probably not. But, he’s a great addition, and would send a symbol of winning that Chicago needs. Not advocating a Maddux signing is impossible for me, no matter what the cost. He won’t be the pitcher he was in the mid-90s, but seeing him back in Cubbie Blue will be worth the cost of ticket for me.

    WTNYFebruary 06, 2004
    Pitching Battles
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, I attacked a Tim Kurkjian article about Spring Training battles, detailing a dozen positional battles that the ESPN writer failed to recognize. In response to my column, Tom Gorman, one of the writers of a new Giants blog called Fogball, brought my attention to Brian Sabean comments saying that Pedro Feliz will get 300AB this year. I don't think he presents any competition to any Giant, although he will be platooning at first base with J.T. Snow.

    Today I will move on to the pitching battles, starting with the six teams (minus the Twins, who we talked about yesterday) that are undecided on their closer:

    1. Montreal: Biddle v. Ayala v. Cordero: Rocky Biddle had 34 saves last season, despite keeping his ERA above 4.60. He's very ineffective as a reliever, but had some great strokes of good luck last season. Ayala was a Rule V pick last year that made great progress in his rookie season, and is an extreme groundball specialist. I would leave him in roles when a double play is needed, as well as the set-up role. I would give the job to Chad Cordero, their top choice from a year ago that only allowed 4 hits in his first 11 innings in the Majors.

    2. Cincinnati: Reitsma v. Wagner v. Graves: The Danny Graves starting expirament is over, so does the former closer get his job back? I would hope not, as Graves H/9 hasn't been below 9.00 since the 2000 season. I like Reitsma a lot, but I think his versatility is better suited in the middle relief role. I would also pressure the Reds to use their first-round choice, Ryan Wagner, at the end of games. Wagner, who set the NCAA record in K/9 last year, could jump in the upper echelon of relievers right now.

    3. Arizona: Valverde v. Mantei: Bob Brenly has a nice problem here, he can't pick wrong. Mantei will likely win the job, as he makes a lot more money than Valverde will dream about this year. Valverde had a H/9 below 4.50, along with a 12.70 K/9. Mantei's hit rate sits right around six, while his K/9 was 11.13. Mantei is the inferior pitcher, by a very small margin, but his giant paycheck will get him 30 saves.

    4. Toronto: Speier v. Ligtenberg v. Lopez: The Blue Jays might even consider more than these three, but it should come down to this group. Ligtenberg was J.P. Riccardi's worst offseason signing, just for the reason that he overpayed greatly. Kerry allowed more hits than innings pitched last year, with a K/9 of just 7.13. And between Speier and Aqulino Lopez, I don't think there is a right answer. Speier has been great considering his surroundings the last few seasons, while Lopez had a great second half in his first year with the team. I'd go with Speier here, mostly because of a better strikeout rate.

    5. Kansas City: MacDougal v. Leskanic: MacDougal is another example of a player who becomes immediately overrated as a result of more than twenty-five saves. His ERA was 6.85 after the All-Star Break last season, and his insane GB rate would be better before the ninth inning begins. I'd rather go with the veteran Leskanic, who was sensational in 27 games after coming to the Royals in July. Leskanic shuts down LH and RH alike, and hasn't had a bad season since leaving Coors Field in 1999.

    6. Cleveland: Wickman v. Riske v. Jimenez: I'll rule out Jimenez off the bat, who either belongs in the rotation or in middle relief. I really like signing relievers that come from Colorado, especially someone with the sinker that Jimenez possesses. But he's in no way a closer, and has the arm to throw two innings about fifty times this season. Wickman is coming off surgery, and throwing him into a high-stress situation like closing right off the bat wouldn't be a good idea. Plus, you can't go wrong with David Riske, who had a BAA below .200, a WHIP below 1.00, and a K/9 nearing 10.00. Riske is the best choice here, and a decision that Mark Shaprio should make for Eric Wedge.

    Some would argue the Devil Rays have no set closer, but I can't envision a situation in which Lou Pineilla doesn't give the job to a veteran like Danys Baez over Lance Carter. Moving on to the rotations, I have counted at least seven teams that will have serious competition to decide slots in Spring Training.

    1. Atlanta: All-Rookie competition: And by all rookie, I mean that Bubba Nelson, Andy Pratt, Brett Evert, and a host of other pitchers will try out for a spot. Nelson is the best pitching prospect of the group, and a player that Leo Mazzone could flock to. The Braves surprised with Horacio Ramirez last year, but I'm fairly sure that Nelson will be the choice in this scenario.

    2. San Francisco: Hermanson v. Correia: Sure, Jim Brower and Ryan Jensen will get looks in camp, but they won't be thought about too heavily. It will come down to a pair that each pitched between 38 and 40 innings with the Giants in 2003. Hermanson was the better of the two, with a 2.97ERA in six starts while in San Fran. Correia appeared in the Baseball America Giants Top Ten Prospects list, so he has a higher ceiling. The team will likely go with Hermanson off the bat, and Correia could win the job if he pitches well enough in the PCL.

    3. Los Angeles: Jackson v. Alvarez v. Dreifort v. Lima: Jim Tracy has said that Edwin Jackson has to pitch his way out of the fifth slot, but with this competition, he might just do that. My guess is that Edwin Jackson will be starting Opening Day, and if the Dodgers listen to my pleas to trade Odalis Perez, the latter three will fight for a slot as well. Alvarez earned the opportunity, and definitely stands second on the totem pole.

    4. Arizona: Sparks v. Youth: Steve Sparks will need a very good camp to hold off the competition that is Casey Fossum, John Patterson, Edgar Gonzalez, Andrew Good, and maybe more. I think Fossum gets the job, but will prove in short time that he really does belong in the bullpen. By that time, the D-Backs are hoping that Gonzalez or Mike Gosling are polished enough to take over full-time.

    5. Tampa Bay: Final two slots: At this point, I'm going to assume that Jeremi Gonzalez, Victor Zambrano and Mark Hendrickson all have slots. And that is precisely when this gets confusing. The Devil Rays could decide between veterans John Halama, Paul Abbott, Damian Moss or Todd Ritchie for the last two spots. There are also in-house options such as Jorge Sosa, Chad Gaudin, and Doug Waechtler. But then again, don't forget about Dewon Brazelton, Jon Switzer, or Seth McClung. My guess is that Damian Moss and either Gaudin or Waechtler win the spot, with Moss out by June 1.

    6. White Sox: Final two spots: Loaiza, Buerhle, and Garland need not try out. After that, Ozzie Guillen must sort through the mess that is Neal Cotts, Dan Wright, Scott Schoenweis, Jon Rauch, Josh Stewart, and Robert Person. Living in Chicago I have seen most of these people pitch, and let me say that Cotts and Rauch aren't ready, and I'm not sure if Schoenweis or Stewart ever will be. That would leave Dan Wright and Robert Person to spots in the rotation, although I stand by my stance that Wright and his knuckle-curve belong in the bullpen. Person will be the yearly minor league signing that Ken Williams makes in attempts to duplicate Esteban Loaiza.

    7. Seattle: Meche v. Soriano: In a perfect world, this wouldn't even be talked about. Soriano was sensational after the All-Star Break, while Meche couldn't keep his ERA below 6.00. Soriano has a ceiling higher than any young Mariner hurler since Randy Johnson, while Meche is the feel-good comeback story that lacks a happy ending. Rafael pitched great in Winter Ball, but I still have a feeling that Bob Melvin is going to drop the ball and put Soriano in the set-up role. What a waste!

    Arguments can be made that I forgot Texas and Colorado. Those two circumstances are very detailed, and I'll probably tackle those two teams at a later date. I also wanted to touch on a few things since it's Friday...

    - Fernando Seguignol was traded to the Nippon Ham Fighters yesterday, a move that angers me greatly. Seguignol is a better, younger, cheaper version of Ruben Sierra, and definitely wouldn't give the attitude that Sierra has portrayed in the past. Seguignol won the International League MVP last season, and it's disgraceful that 30 teams wouldn't want his switch-hitting, powerful bat on their bench.

    - Antonio Osuna to the Padres? Don't they already have Hoffman, Wells, Otsuka, Linebrink, and Witasick all on the right side? I think Osuna is better than a $750,000 pitcher, and I would hardly be surprised if he outpitches overpayed relievers such as Ligtenberg and Julian Tavarez.

    - Nice story with Ellis Burks coming back to Boston, but where does he fit in? I've always loved his bat, I just don't understand what his role will be. Maybe a DH platoon with David Ortiz?

    - Scott Erickson, as I presumed Wednesday, signed with the Mets yesterday, and will act as their fifth starter. I doubt his health will sustain any period of time, but the Mets have Aaron Heilman and Jeremy Griffiths waiting in reserve.

    - The Pirates signed Mark Guthrie yesterday, but will go after Travis Lee rather than Randall Simon now. Good call by Dave Littlefield, who needed some sense knocked into him.

    - Finally, let me point you over to a great new blog that has hit the Internet by storm...Dugout Dollars. Michael Srihari has done a great job compiling salary information about all 30 teams, and gives us lesser writers a sensational reference material.

    Have a good weekend, and hopefully I'll return Monday with an article about the newest Chicago Cub, Greg Maddux...

    WTNYFebruary 05, 2004
    The Real Battles
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday I detailed the problem I have with baseball magazines, and the despair that a poor rookie section gives me. Another annual I get excited about is the ESPN.com Hot Stove Heaters, which unfortunately has a new style this year. Rather than write about each team individually, in which they gave great previews in my opinion, they've gone to questions ranging from "What will Bud Selig's legacy be?" to "When will there be an openly gay Major Leaguer?" I just can't say this got my juices flowing.

    But when reading the overview of questions when this system was presented, I circled the date January 30 in my head. On that day, the question "Where will there be position battles in 2004?" would be answered. I think the two single greatest things about Spring Training are the fights for starting roles and the chance to see youngsters against Major League talent. I thought ESPN would go all out on this article...I was wrong.

    Tim Kurkjian, a vastly overrated baseball reporter, gave us EIGHT battles that will be fought out in Spring Training. Granted, they all are true (we're not talkin' about Phil Rogers here), but eight? That's akin to buying first-row seats at Wrigley Field only to see the game rained out after five innings. But, just like yesterday, I decided to answer my own question. First, I'll show the eight Kurkjian presented, and then add on to his list:

    1. Yankees CF- Well, is this really a position battle? I think there's no question that Kenny plays center except when southpaws are on the mound, in which Bernie moves back to his old position, Giambi hits in the DH slot and Tony Clark plays the infield. This could possibly change in Spring Training, but I don't think there's too much to be fought out.

    2. Twins closer- This is a better battle. The favorite is Joe Nathan, the newest Twin, who held right-handers to a .136 average last season. Juan Rincon and J.C. Romero have done great things in bullpens in the past, and both could fill in. Top 100 prospect Jesse Crain will get a chance, although he's likely to end up starting the year in Rochester. Finally, expect Ugueth Urbina's name to be tied to this team, remember, they like signing players in February/March, a.k.a. Kenny Rogers?

    3. Dodgers 1B- We'll see how this plays out, but at this point, is anyone but Robin Ventura even logical? Sure, Jeremy Giambi could always have a great camp, but chances are that Ventura would get the job if the Dodgers opened the season February 6. But, they don't, giving whomever becomes the GM a chance to fix this terribly weak hole.

    4. Mets C/1B- Jason Phillips earned the right to play everyday last year, posting an OPS over .800. And, Mike Piazza is obviously guaranteed a slot. What's the controversy? Sure Art Howe has to decide who catches who and when, but either way the Mets won't have a Gold Glover behind the plate. Ask the pitchers, let them decide.

    5. Orioles 2B- The battle between Jerry Hairston Jr. and Brian Roberts will be a good one. I think Hairston is the better player of the two, and chances are that he earns the job here. In that case, Roberts should be dealt to a team like the Cardinals or White Sox. The Orioles can't make a bad decision here, but it is a tough one.

    6. Cardinals 2B- Ahh, Bo Hart. If the kid wasn't so lovable, would he even be in AAA this year? Kurkjian points out that Hart held hit own hitting .277 last year, but doesn't point out a .317OBP, or the fact that he tailed out in the second half (226/267/332). Marlon Anderson, hands down.

    7. Red Sox 2B- Theo Epstein might just be testing Terry Francona here, hoping he weeds out Tony Womack and Terry Shumpert before they really get a chance. I've heard the idea of putting Pokey, the defensive specialist, in the lineup when Derek Lowe and Byung-Hyun Kim are starting. With Wakefield or Schilling on the mound, go with Bellhorn. Then, go with the hot hand for Pedro.

    8. White Sox closer- I've pointed out why Shingo Takatsu is a bad idea, citing the large statistical differences between him and Kaz Sasaki preceding their journey to America. Billy Koch could get the job back with a great camp, and even Cliff Politte might get a look. But I would go with Damaso Marte, who draws the inevitable "lacks closer mentality" crap.

    Those are the ones that Kurkjian gave you, but I have more. I've accumulated twelve hitting battles (and there are a few others I missed probably) he didn't talk about, and they go as follows:

    1. Atlanta 3B (Branyan v. Derosa): Derosa will be better defensively, he'll strike out less, he'll be more consistent. And then there is Branyan, who will hit it to the steakhouse behind the centerfield bleachers at Turner Field. Derosa gets the job here, with the occasional break against ace right-handers.

    2. Philadelphia 2B/3B (Utley v. Polanco v. Bell): Utley is full of potential, Polanco produces better than anyone else, and Bell has produced the most in the past and makes the largest paycheck. Will Carroll gave Bell a red-light yesterday in his THR of the Phillies, so this may be an easier decision than Larry Bowa had hoped for.

    3. Montreal CF (Sledge v. Chavez): This comes down to the defensive versus offensvie argument. Should the Expos sacrifice defense to put sabermatric favorite Sledge in the lineup, or favor defense and go with Chavez. I think Frank Robinson will pick the latter, the Expos have a lot of offense as-is.

    4. Cubs MI (Walker v. Grudzi v. Gonzalez): This also comes down to defense/offense. Gonzalez should have won the Gold Glove last year, while Walker computed for the Lead Foot award, given out to the worst defender at each position. A platoon of Walker/Grudzi and Grudzi/Gonzalez might be in order, depending on Grudzilanek's ability to handle shortstop.

    5. Cincinnati SS (Larkin v. Youth): To further define Larkin's opponents, Ray Olmedo, Tim Hummell, and Ryan Freel will all be battling with the veteran for playing time. If Freel proves that he can play a good shortstop, give him the job. If not, I would let Larkin make one last tour around the Major League stadiums.

    6. Milwaukee 2B (Ginter v. Spivey): We've all heard of Junior Spivey. He's the fun, slashing 2B that the Diamondbacks had represent them in the All-Star game in 2002, after an amazing first half. But in the three halves since then, he's sucked. Ginter is the better player, and displays a lot of the same attributes at Marcus Giles, who had to fight Keith Lockhart for a job once.

    7. San Francisco RF (Mohr v. Hammonds v. Tucker): I would bet good money that Tucker and Mohr end up platooning this spot, as the Bay waits for Todd Linden to actually be ready for the Major Leagues. Tucker will struggle in Pac Bell (or what is it now?), and Felipe might be smarter to give the job to Mohr and have him run with it.

    8. San Diego SS (Ordonez v. Greene v. Vazquez): Now the Padres have a justifiable response to sending Khalil Greene to AAA at season's beginning, which they likely wanted to do in the first place. Ordonez will most likely win this job, though it won't take long for Padre brass to realize last year was a fluke happening.

    9. Colorado 2B (Miles v. Jackson): I've fought this battle 100 times on-line before, go with Miles. He was great in AA, great in AAA. The kid can hit, and he gives 100% on every single play. He could hit 10-20 jacks in Coors Field, and be a very important piece of a very threatening lineup.

    10. Yankees 3B (???): The most talked about position battle on the Internet. I haven't written a story on this because I feel I have little to add to what the general public does. It will come down to Tyler Houston, Mike Lamb, and Almonte, with the Houston likely the most deserving. The Yankees haven't pursues a player for the hot corner as avidly as some predicted, but maybe George wants to build the suspense before releasing the clone he made of Mike Schmidt back in the day.

    11. White Sox CF (Rowand v. Benard v. Reed): Jeremy Reed would have to prove a lot to me in camp before handing him an everyday job, but it seems like Reed is more than capable of leaving that impression. Benard can barely play centerfield at this point, so I think Rowand has the job until Reed makes a mockery of International League pitching.

    12. Indians LF (Lawton v. Ludwick v. Crisp v. Escobar): Eric Wedge says that Lawton's paycheck won't affect his decision, which is a lie. Lawton will get the left field job, and hold it until Grady Sizemore is ready to handle Major League pitching full-time. That should be sometime in the summer months.

    Tomorrow I'll handle the pitchers. Drop me a line with any suggestions, as well as positions that I missed today.

    WTNYFebruary 04, 2004
    The Rookies
    By Bryan Smith

    See, I have this problem. I'm addicted to baseball magazines. Put a baseball player on the cover of a magazine, and chances are if I see it, I'll soon own it. The winter months often deprive me of this need, that is, until the Sporting News comes out with their baseball annual.

    For some reason, the Sporting News annual magazines, one for fantasy and one for the average fan, come out in late January, so forget about any insight on Pudge moving to Detroit, or how Greg Maddux will fare in 2004. But, there are a lot of players talked about, and it's always fun to start thinking about baseball, whether in be from a fantasy perspective or not, in January.

    One of my favorite sections in annuals is the page or two devoted to rookies. While many magazines focus on prospects, I like the magazines that will dedicate a page or two on the players that could win a Rookie of the Year crown. Granted, Dontrelle Willis nor Brandon Webb was likely to be on those pages last year, but it's a fun thing to think about.

    This year, the Sporting News list was very incomprehensive, not giving nearly enough players to fill my craving. So when in doubt, come up with your own lists. So I went through the depth charts I have for all the Major League teams, and circled any player that will be a rookie in 2004. So here is my list of rookies that will/could be Major League regulars, or have spots in a rotation.

    First, the National League players, listed in alphabetical order:

    Jason Bay, OF- Pittsburgh Pirates- Bay, one of the better outfield prospects in the game, will finally get an everyday job with his third Major League organization. His OPS was above .900 in a 79AB stint with the Pirates at year's end, so he'll be a favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

    Brandon Claussen, LHP- Cincinnati Reds- Acquired for Aaron Boone, Claussen has become the posterchild to quick Tommy John recoveries, thanks to being publicized by Will Carroll. His pitching is just what the Reds need, and he should be penciled in for at least 25 starts.

    Kevin Correia, RHP- San Francisco Giants- He'll need a good camp to beat out Dustin Hermanson, Ryan Jensen, and Jim Brower, but Correia showed real promise in seven starts with the Giants last year. Might not be up to start, but he'll be in the second half rotation guaranteed.

    Jorge De La Rosa, LHP- Milwaukee Brewers- The Brewers have no reason not to give DLR a chance, so he should be there the whole season. He dominated the Eastern League, and has more electric stuff than the aforementioned Claussen.

    John Gall, 1B- St. Louis Cardinals- I'm under the belief that Pujols should be playing left field, and the Cards should go with this kid. He'll remind many of Tino Martinez, but has much more upside than their former first basemen. Won't win any awards, but keep him under your radar.

    Khalil Greene, SS- San Diego Padres- Will need to convince Bruce Bochy in Spring Training that he is more deserving of an everyday job than Rey Ordonez and Ramon Vazquez...fat chance. He could use some PCL work, but could flourish given 350 bats from June on.

    Aaron Heilman, RHP- New York Mets- Once was the #2 Mets prospect behind Jose Reyes, but those times have changed. Jim Duquette is hot after Scott Erickson's trail, which would push Heilman back to AAA. He could use the work, he wasn't ready last year.

    Edwin Jackson, RHP- Los Angeles Dodgers- I'll give you a hint: when my top prospect list comes out, this guy will be in the top 10. He beat Randy Johnson on his 20th birthday last September, and Jim Tracy recently talked about how Jackson will have to pitch his way out of a fifth hole. Along with Bay and a certain Japanese shortstop, Edwin should be considered one of the ROY favorites.

    Adam LaRoche, 1B- Atlanta Braves- Will likely hold the strong side of a platoon with Julio Franco, the most unlikely of partners. LaRoche has the potential to win a Gold Glove next year, and might mix in 20 HR to boot. Is a sleeper choice to be this year's top rookie.

    Luis Martinez, LHP- Milwaukee Brewers- His age and AAA performance will keep him off prospect lists, but Martinez put a hurting to AA at the start of the 2003 season. Might land the fifth spot in the rotation, but his future is likely in the bullpen.

    Kaz Matsui, SS- New York Mets- It seems like everyone you talk to has a different opinion on Kaz, I've heard everything from MVP to flamed out. He should be right around 15-15, with an off chance of being this year's Angel Berroa.

    Aaron Miles, 2B- Colorado Rockies- Often mentioned on this blog, I can't say enough good things about Miles. He has been a AA MVP and AAA Rookie of the Year each of the last two seasons, and the Rockies must give him a chance. His bat plus thin air could produce interesting results for a second basemen (upside being Marcus Giles).

    Bubba Nelson, RHP- Atlanta Braves- Should be this year's rookie in the Atlanta rotation, and has more potential than anyone who has tried out in quite some time. Under Mazzone's tutelage, Nelson could be great, but he may be better suited for relief.

    Freddy Sanchez, 2B- Pittsburgh Pirates- Wherever he goes, Freddy Sanchez hits, and hits, and hits. He could very well hit .300 with the big league club this year, mixing in 10 home runs and a few highlight reel defensive plays. Bay's the better player, but Sanchez might have more immediate success.

    Terrmel Sledge, OF- Montreal Expos- A sabermatrician favorite, Sledge's fifteen minutes of fame were when he was caught for taking steroids. He'll need to prove he can play center field well, as Brad Wilkerson and Carl Everett hog the corners. If not, he's trade bait.

    Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP- Colorado Rockies- In any other stadium, he's the favorite for this award. But he drops in prospect rankings because of where he will pitch, and I doubt he'll be one of the top 10 rookies of the 2004 seasons. But that won't be because of his stuff, which is second to only Edwin Jackson on this list.

    Ryan Wagner, RHP- Cincinnati Reds- The only reliever in the NL with a chance for the award, Wagner did set K/9 records while closing for University of Houston. He proved he was ready for the Majors last year, and might win if the Reds give him 30-40 opportunities to save games.

    Most choices will come down to Bay, Jackson, or Matsui in the National League, with the latter garnering much of the publicity. As for the American League, here are the 11 that I will keep close attention on...

    Grant Balfour, RHP- Minnesota Twins- Weak depth in the rotation almost assures Balfour a job, who did well moving back to starting last year. He doesn't have ace-like stuff, but he's as Major League ready as anyone else.

    Neal Cotts, LHP- Chicago White Sox- The stuff will never be questioned, but his stamina, health, and control might be. Cotts should step into an incomplete White Sox rotation quickly, but needs to get over the walk problems that plagued his call up a year ago.

    Jesse Crain, RHP- Minnesota Twins- If given the closer job, Jesse Crain will make noise for Rookie of the Year. The Twins figure to give the kid about forty save chances, and he won't blow many. Might start the year in AAA, bringing the Soriano/K-Rod effect in the second half.

    Bobby Crosby, SS- Oakland Athletics- Will be seen as the favorite by many, seeing as though he replaces Miguel Tejada this season. Crosby hit like hell in the PCL last year, and could hit 20-25 home runs as a rookie. If he does so, he'll be deserving.

    Alex Escobar, OF- Cleveland Indians- Remember that great outfield prospect the Mets used to have? Five tools? Horrible plate discipline? Traded in the Robbie Alomar deal? Out for a year with knee surgery? Returns to almost win the International League home run crown? Oh yeah, same guy.

    Chad Gaudin, RHP- Tampa Bay Devil Rays- A perfect game in AA Orlando put him on the map, starting a rapid ascent that finished in Tropicana Field. He'll have lots of competitors in Spring Training, but has the most potential out of the bunch...Lou should like this guy.

    Joe Mauer, C- Minnesota Twins- As someone pointed out to me recently, Butch Wynegar started huge before his rapid descent to failure. I'm not sure if Mauer's ready for the Major Leagues, but if I'm wrong, he'll hit .300 and play Gold Glove defense immediately.

    Justin Morneau, 1B- Minnesota Twins- Will have to fight much harder for a job, and is likely starting the year in Rochester. Morneau has fantastic power, and may end up hitting about 15 home runs if given the chance to have about 350 at-bats, kind of like a 2002 version of Kevin Mench.

    Jeremy Reed, OF- Chicago White Sox- If Reed wins the White Sox centerfield job, he'll have to be the favorite. Reed could steal 40 bases, have an OBP above .400, and play very good defense, all in his rookie year. Has a huge future, but his timetable is up to Ozzie.

    Matt Riley, LHP- Baltimore Orioles- Formerly a top prospect, Riley re-ignited the prospect talks with a great comeback season this year. He'll be handed a rotation slot, and could be a left-handed, American League version of Webb.

    Cody Ross, OF- Detroit Tigers- Will Alan Trammell give Ross the job over Bobby Higginson and Craig Monroe? Probably not. Would I? Yes. Ross could hit thirty doubles right away, and would be more consistent than what Higginson would bring to the table.

    My thoughts are always subject to change, but for the time being I'm going to pick Edwin Jackson and Matt Riley. It may be silly to be guessing this before pitchers and catchers report, but I wanted to give readers what the Sporting News missed out on, a good rookie review section. If I missed out on anyone, let me know, and you'll have a synopsis of that player both in your e-mail and in tomorrow's article, guaranteed.

    WTNYFebruary 03, 2004
    The Blues Continue in Motown
    By Bryan Smith

    Ivan Rodriguez finally signed with the Tigers, a topic I've been hesitant to comment on for the last few weeks. This is largely because I didn't believe it would happen, I mean, from the World Series to Motown? Pudge is the player that almost single-handedly beat the Giants, teared up my Cubbies, and played an instrumental role in the David over Goliath win over the Yankees. And now, he'll need another big season just to get the Tigers out of the MLB cellar.

    This is one of the top five greatest catchers in history, signing out of necessity (no one else really wanted him) to one of the top five worst teams in history. This shouldn't happen, and it's a signal of the future that the MLB economic system is headed down. I would love to pick the brain of a team executive or agent on this subject, so if any are reading (which they aren't), e-mail me (bryball@hotmail.com). The middle (or even lower) class teams can sign big-name free agents, although many are players that were passed on by the Yankees or Red Sox or Mets.

    Many of my articles follow Rob Neyer, who seems to write transaction analysis articles minutes after the AP posts it. Neyer pointed out how catchers don't age well, and the upper echelon of catchers have fallen apart (30% decrease) in their 32-35 seasons. And yes, there is more than history to believe that Pudge isn't going to be worth $40M down the road.

    First of all, there is the fact that Pudge only hit 3...THREE home runs after the All-Star Break. He didn't hit one after September 10, nor any between August 6 and 9/10. He also only posted a .779OPS away from home, as Pro Player Stadium actually proved to favor a few hitters in 2003. Pudge came to camp totally fit and with a chip on his shoulder a year ago, but how much does he still have to prove to us? He's in the Hall of Fame, he has an MVP, more Gold Gloves than one could imagine, and a World Series ring. If he's hoping to turn around this team, he's mistaken.

    There's no question the Tigers will be better next year, I mean, Dave Dombrowski has at least been active this offseason. Here is a look at the team that Tiger fans should, at the very least, be able to identify with next season:

    C- Pudge Rodriguez
    1B- Carlos Pena
    2B- Fernando Vina
    SS- Carlos Guillen
    3B- Eric Munson
    LF- Rondell White
    CF- Alex Sanchez
    RF- Bobby Higginson
    DH- Dmitri Young
    Bench: Mike Diefelice, Chris Shelton, Omar Infante, Greg Norton, Craig Monroe

    1. Jason Johnson
    2. Mike Maroth
    3. Nate Cornejo
    4. Jeremy Bonderman
    5. Esteban Yan

    CL- Fernando Rodney
    SU- Franklyn German
    SU- Matt Anderson
    RH- Al Levine
    LH- Jamie Walker
    MR- Danny Patterson

    Well, I can at least say that I know they will be improved next year. The team will surely sport the anti-OBP Sanchez and Vina atop their order, yet I can hardly say that I support such a notion. The 3-4-5 of Ivan Rodriguez, Dmitri Young and Rondell White should be fairly productive, followed by Eric Munson, Carlos Guillen, and Carlos Pena. All three have solid potential, and I think Munson could become a 30HR threat this season, although a reader reminded me of Kevin Mench (whom I thought the same about) yesterday. Pudge should give a drop off from his 2003 stats, and Higginson is a waste of space, I'd much rather have Cody Ross and Craig Monroe fill that void.

    The pitching will be improved, as experience usually has such an effect. Jason Johnson will profit from moving to Comerica Park, although Nate Cornejo pitches like his ERA should be above 5.00. Mike Maroth, despite the losses, was the best pitcher on last year's staff, and should improve from not competing against aces this year. Who knows if Jeremy Bonderman will ever reach his one-time potential, and the Esteban Yan experiment is a crap shoot if I ever heard of one.

    The bullpen could, and I use that term lightly, be imposing. I like Fernando and Franklyn at the end of games, and Jamie Walker is one of the better LOOGYs in baseball. Matt Anderson and Danny Patterson once had juice in their system, and Al Levine is not about to hurt anyone out there.

    Detroit will be an improved team next year, and the Motor City fans will find players they can cheer about. However the lack of anything vaguely resembling a farm system will hurt them down the road, as the Tigers won't be in the playoffs in the next five years...or anything even close to it. But, Pudge may bring the team to the promised land...fourth place!

    WTNYFebruary 02, 2004
    Bryan's Thoughts
    By Bryan Smith

    Surely now it's time to refer to the present as baseball season, right?

    The Super Bowl was a mix of horrendous boredom and extreme excitement, almost taking me back to last year's playoffs. Jake Delhomme should never be doubted again, although he got off to a bad start, he more than held his own against a great New England defense. I don't like the Patriots, but I will always respect Bill Belichek's ability to outsmart any coach he goes up against. If he wasn't the Super Bowl MVP, I don't know who was.

    Now back to baseball. I want to apologize for not making a post on Friday, but a lack of baseball news, other projects I'm working on (more arbitration stuff to come), and a busy life contributed to a four-post week. Hopefully, it won't happen again...

    In the past, readers have accused me on being too hard on the Dodgers (namely Jeff Felix). I think this was fair, as I've spent a good majority of the off season criticizing Dan Evans lack of action. It appears now that Evans was hog-tied, and the Dodgers were doomed from the start. Evans will have to re-interview to keep his job, but my guess is he won't be working in Los Angeles next season. So, I've decided to write what I would do if given the Los Angeles GM position, since I know Frank McCourt will be asking.

    First, let's look at what the Dodgers currently have:

    Position Players
    C- Paul Lo Duca
    1- Robin Ventura
    2- Alex Cora
    3- Adrian Beltre
    S- Cesar Izturis
    L- Juan Encarnacion
    C- Dave Roberts
    R- Shawn Green

    Bench
    1. Todd Hundley
    2. Jolbert Cabrera
    3. Jose Hernandez
    4. Bubba Trammell

    Rotation
    1- Hideo Nomo
    2- Odalis Perez
    3- Jeff Weaver
    4- Kaz Ishii
    5- Edwin Jackson

    Bullpen
    CL- Eric Gagne
    SU- Guillermo Mota
    RH- Paul Shuey
    LH- Tom Martin
    RH- Darren Dreifort/Rick White
    LH- Wilson Alvarez

    While that is only 23 players, that's really all the players I feel are locks to make the roster. Jose Lima has an outside chance, but Jim Tracy said that Edwin Jackson would have to pitch his way out of the rotation, and Darren Dreifort, Wilson Alvarez, and prospect Joel Hanrahan could also start if needed. I think Dreifort and Alvarez could have positive results in the bullpen, but both will have competition for spots. The bench could have plays like Chin-Feng Chen, Dave Ross, and Joe Thurston on it, but I just don't see that happening.

    OK first of all, this is bad. The offense could be irreparable for 2003, but the Dodgers have a very bright future ahead of them. I'll say that Los Angeles has four players in my top 50 prospects (Jackson, Greg Miller, Franklin Gutierrez, and James Loney), which I'll be displaying in February. Los Angeles should be winning divisions when these players hit the prime time, but that's years down the road. Don't trade any of those four players, nor Hanrahan for that matter. Everyone else is available, especially overrated shortstop prospect Joel Guzman.

    The Dodgers need to trade pitching for hitting, it's just a fact. In a perfect world, they could acquire both a first basemen and a left fielder, so that Robin Ventura and Dave Roberts could move to the bench, and Juan Encarnacion could go to center. With Eric Karros apparently signing with the A's, it may be too late to trade Odalis Perez in a package for Paul Konerko. But, that should be explored. Travis Lee probably ends up being the first basemen, and I guess the Dodgers COULD do worse (see Randall Simon). If so, they must trade Perez away for a left fielder, and my choice would be Jacque Jones. The Twins need starting pitching badly, and could easily recuperate from losing Jones off their depth chart...it would easily make them the 2004 AL Central favorites.

    The Dodgers will have a very good rotation. Edwin Jackson should be considered the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year, Jeff Weaver should bounce back, and Jose Lima could do very well in the spacious Dodger Stadium. Hideo Nomo was just built for there, and while I'm not high on Ishii, he does bring positives. And any bullpen that has Shuey, Gagne, and Mota will be good, so I wouldn't worry about that.

    In the end, I don't see the Dodgers competing for the NL West crown in 2004, but I think they should circle 2005 on their calendar, as they get a lot of players off the books. The Dodgers should be considered the present favorites to land Carlos Delgado and/or Nomar Garciaparra, and will be mixing in Greg Miller and Joel Hanrahan in a rotation that already has Edwin Jackson, Jeff Weaver, and Darren Dreifort. I think Nomo should remain in Los Angeles as well, but we'll see how much Frank McCourt will invest in this team.

    I'm skeptical, to say the least, for 2004, but Los Angeles (and Anaheim for that matter) is going to be a very fun place to live for baseball in 2005-2008.

    WTNYJanuary 29, 2004
    The Phillies
    By Bryan Smith

    Major computer problems today, so my post can't be very long. I wanted to tackle the two Phillies who have yet to sign contracts, being Kevin Millwood and Placido Polanco. The former is asking for more than any other eligible player, requesting $12.5M in 2004, the Phillies are countering with $10M. Polanco wants $4.5M while Ed Wade submitted $3.4M as his figure.

    First, Kevin Millwood has no business asking for $12.5M, and his agent did a terrible job determining his price. Three Millwood-type players have signed contracts this offseason (Vazquez, Halladay, Wood), so I wanted to use them as proof. In terms of H/9, Millwood ranked 3rd in this group, only .05 in front of Roy Halladay at 8.51. Vazquez (7.73) and Wood (6.48) blew them both away. Millwood is last in K/9, once again close to the AL Cy Young winner, but his 6.85 is well behind Vazquez (9.40) and Wood (11.35).

    Millwood had the worst K/BB of the group, but his 2.49 checks in very closely with Wood's 2.66. Halladay was the best at this, sporting a 6.38 K/BB. Finally, Millwood had the worst ERA of the group by far, as his 4.01 is well behind Wood (3.20), Vazquez (3.24), and Halladay (3.25). Next year, Wood will make $9.75M, Vazquez will make 11.25M, and Halladay 10.5M. Millwood is definitely the worst of this bunch, but at worst will make more than Wood, who ranked best using the previous metrics.

    In 2003, Millwood had a $9.9M salary. While years of eligibility is important in determining price, I had to ask myself, did Millwood's 2003 warrant a large raise from the salary he had a year ago? No way.

    2002: 18-8 3.24 186/217 (7.71H/9) 178/65 (7.38K/9)
    2003: 14-12 4.01 210/222 (8.51H/9) 169/68 (6.85K/9)

    In 2002, the year determining Millwood's $9.9M, his H/9 was 9.4% less, and his K/9 was 7.7% more. The right-hander's performance took a considerable drop in 2003, so why give him a 26% salary increase? Millwood did a very good job accepting the team's arbitration offer, but there is no way his arguments can justify a $12.5M salary.

    Mark Loretta made 1.25M last year. His AVE, his OBP, and his SLG were all better than Polanco's numbers. They had very similar extra-base hit numbers. Was Mark Grudzialnek worse than Polanco? Was Luis Castillo even with Polanco? No and No. End of case. I wish I could get into more detail, but Blogger's just too damn difficult.

    Sorry for the small post, I'll be back tomorrow.

    WTNYJanuary 28, 2004
    Twins go to Arbitration
    By Bryan Smith

    In the last two days we have talked about the high-profile arbitration-eligble players, and now we move on to the second-tier group. Three players from the 2003 Minnesota Twins, Doug Mientkiewicz, Johan Santana, and now-Giant A.J. Pierzynski all are disputing their 2004 salaries. Below is what these players are asking for next year, and in parentheses, what their team will be fighting for.

    Mientkiewicz- $3.6M ($2.5M)
    Santana- $2.45M (1.6M)
    Pierzynski- $3.5M ($2.25M)

    I was very surprised when the Twins didn't non-tender Doug Mientkiewicz, as prospect Justin Morneau is ready for the Major Leagues. But Minnesota is very high on their first basemen, who will rip the manager, the front office, the White Sox, whomever to make a point. On the field, Mientkiewicz has become a good hitter, and has lived up to the defensive compliments he's always received.

    Last year, Mientkiewicz had 19.58 Win Shares, which was good for 3rd in AL 1B. His 17.15 win shares for hitting settled him comfortably in third, well behind Jason Giambi (26.04), but well in front of Kevin Millar (13.34). On defense, Doug was second in the American League at 2.39, only behind John Olerud in the American League. His on-base percentage (.393) was good enough for ninth in the league, helped by the fact that he drew the thirteenth most walks. While Doug doesn't have the prototypical first base power, his 38 doubles were tied for thirteenth last year.

    Here's a list of six players that will make more money than Mientkiewicz if given the Twins amount, but were worse in terms of Win Shares:

    - John Olerud- $7.7M
    - Tino Martinez- $7M
    - Sean Casey- $6.8M
    - Ryan Klesko- $6.5M
    - Jeff Conine- $4.35M
    - Kevin Millar- $2.65M

    There is no way that an arbitrator would rule in favor of the Twins here, it's impossible to prove he is worse than his aforementioned peers.

    In Johan Santana, we're getting another example of a first-year eligible player trying to make some money. Santana is reportedly upset with the Twins about long-term negotiations, and a deal isn't promising.

    Last year, Santana found himself on the leaderboard of a few statistics, and has become the ace of the Twins' staff. He finished 5th in the AL in baserunners/9, fourth in ERA, second in H/9 and second in K/9. Some of the names in front of him, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Tim Hudson, all dwarf Santana in terms of salary.

    Johan finished 13th in the American League in Win Shares by a pitcher, contributing 5.3 wins (16WS) to the Twins. The only player in the top 12 even close to Santana's demands is fellow first-year eligible southpaw, Darrell May, who just completed a deal with the Royals. May will make 2.475M next year, more than what Santana is asking about. So if I were an arbitrator, the key decision here is whether or not Johan has deserved the right to make an equal amount to Darrell May, or should he make less?

    While Johan has less innings pitched than May, he has won six more games, struck out 96 more batters, and walked seven less in the last two seasons. His ERAs (2.99 and 3.07) are far lower than what May has done in two years (5.35 and 3.77). Johan is younger, and has much more projectability than his competitor. If there is any reason that May deserves more money than Santana, than Johan might as well take the loss. But...there isn't any reason.

    Finally, there is A.J. Pierzynski. Let me say first and foremost that A.J. Pierzynski is a left-handed catcher, and those don't come around often. Since World War II, Pierzynski's 2003 had the second best average ever from a LH catcher, the second most doubles, and the sixteenth best on-base percentage. A.J. has been the best left-handed hitting catcher in quite some time, and already has been to an All-Star Game. This is his first-year eligible for arbitration, and asking for $3.5M is highly ambitious.

    Last season, A.J. Pierzynski finished fourth in the Major Leagues for Win Shares by a catcher with 21.58. His 14.74 Win Shares on offense sit right in between Jason Kendall ($8M in 2004) and Mike Lieberthal ($7.5M in 2004). But the killer in this situation is that it's Pierzynski's first time eligible for arbitration, and the Giants will be quick to point to Ramon Hernandez, who will make $2.375M with the Padres. Of the three cases in this article, A.J. definitely has the best chance to lose. Should he? Probably.

    I'll be back tomorrow...

    WTNYJanuary 27, 2004
    The Cardinal Clipper
    By Bryan Smith

    As I said yesterday, today I was hoping to tackle the Albert Pujols case. Aaron Gleeman beat me to the punch earlier in the week, going into detail on the Cardinal slugger. The two sides are talking long-term contract, but remain undecided on a 2004 salary. Pujols is asking for the largest sum ever by a first-year eligible player, $9.5M, while the Cardinals stand 3.5M less. That represents the highest difference between two players, and barring a long-term deal being inked, is likely to go to an arbitrator.

    In the Gleeman piece, Aaron points out that Pujols finished tied for 12th all-time in home runs through the age of 23, tied for 10th in doubles, and 10th in RCAA. Using the indispensable Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, I ran a few more tests, and discovered this coincidence:

    Name	 AVG	 OBP	 SLG	 ISO	XBH	RC
    A Pujols	.334	.412	.613	.279	259	438
    Player A	.331	.384	.610	.279	261	449

    While Aaron compared Pujols to Teddy Ballgame in his article, Player A is Joe Dimaggio. While Pujols was better in OBP than Dimaggio, Joltin' Joe had a leg up in Runs Created. Their Isolated Power is the exact same, and the AVG, SLG, and XBH numbers are eerily close. After his first three seasons, the Yankee Clipper peaked during his ages 24-26 seasons. He had averages of .381, .352, and .357 during that time, and topped a .600SLG for the final time. If Joe's numbers are indicative of what Pujols will do in the next three seasons, the Cards can expect a .360/.430/.650 player that will flirt with .400 at that point.

    Using just statistics, Pujols would be guaranteed his $9.5M, and probably more. But as I pointed out with Gagne yesterday, Albert is likely to lose his case. Giving a first-year eligible player $9.5M increases prices given to those in his same category, and more players will go to the arbitrator. So instead of deciding whether Pujols will/should make $6M or $9.5M in 2004, I set out to find what his long-term contract terms should look like.

    By setting the Sabermetric Encyclopedia's parameter to just 1994-2003, only six players were in the top ten in AVG, OBP, SLG, ISO, XBH, and RC at least five times. They are:

    Pujols- 6
    Alex Rodriguez- 6
    Vladmir Guerrero- 6
    Scott Rolen- 6
    Eric Chavez- 6
    Edgar Renteria- 5

    I then looked at what the five players from above made from their team before hitting free agency. Before signing a record deal with the Texas Rangers, A-Rod made about $11M in his time with the Mariners. In September of 1998, the Expos signed Guerrero through his arbitration years, inking a five-year, $30M contract. It should be said that the timing of that deal would be synonymous if Pujols had signed a year ago, so it's a bit late. Scott Rolen made about $17M before signing a long-term deal with the Cardinals after the 2002 season. Eric Chavez was signed through his arbitration years at $11.75M, and Edgar Renteria is finishing out a four-year, $20M contract (with two option years) that he signed a year after Pujols would be signing.

    The mean for the five players above is $20M, but none have scratched the surface on what Pujols means to this team. The Guerrero deal makes the most sense, but Pujols is looking beyond five years, and beyond $6M per season. Let's also look at the contract obligations the Cardinals currently have for every season beyond 2004:

    2005: Rolen (11.25), Edmonds (10M), Izzy (6.75M), Suppan (3M), Sanders (3M), Tavarez (2.1M)= 36.10M
    2006: Rolen (11.25), Edmonds (10M)= 21.25M

    After assuming that the Edgar Renteria option years will be picked up, each of those totals have about $5M added to them. So before the Cards even begin to start talking to Pujols and Matt Morris about contract extensions, they have to worry about the $41M already spend towards the 2005 season, and the $26M geared towards 2007. Considering that the Cardinal payrolls hover around $85M, signing Pujols and Morris to $10M+ per year deals would be a burden on the franchise.

    If I were Walt Jocketty, I would make Pujols an offer of about eight years, at an average of 11M per season. Build the contract so that the team pays less in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and more towards the end of the contract. Also put in incentives that can take the deal to about 14M per if Pujols performs well.

    And then, there is the age issue. I might be naive in thinking that Pujols is telling the truth here, but I'm going to assume he is 24 until proven differently. Those who argue against me will say, "Well, look at what he's done so far..." to which I'll respond, "Albert Pujols has had a great first three seasons, but it's not even in the top 5 of Major League players ever, it is possible for players this young to do that." Any contract likely would/should have an age stipulation, in which the Cardinals can opt out if his age is proven different.

    Albert Pujols is a very gifted player, and likely the favorite for the 2004 NL MVP. I mean, the Yankee Clipper won an MVP in his fourth year...

    WTNYJanuary 26, 2004
    Game Over
    By Bryan Smith

    The next week is going to be Arbitration Week at Wait 'Til Next Year, as I will spend time analyzing who will go to an arbitrator, and those who settled before arbitration. There are 26 players who remain unsigned for the 2004 season, and these are the six players who have the largest disagreement with their team:

    1. Albert Pujols- $3.5M
    2. Eric Gagne- $3M
    3. Kevin Millwood- $2.5M
    4. A.J. Pierzynski- $1.25M
    5T. Placido Polanco- $1.1M
    5T. Doug Mientkiewicz- $1.1M

    With that being said, this is the rough schedule for the next five days here:

    Monday: Eric Gagne
    Tuesday: Albert Pujols (subject to change)
    Wednesday: Twins (Mientkiewicz, Santana, and former Twin, Pierzynski)
    Thursday: Phillies (Millwood and Polanco)
    Friday: Those who settled prior to arbitration

    That may all change, but I think all five posts will be well worth your time. As I said, today will be analyzing the contract situation of Eric Gagne, the 2003 NL Cy Young winner. Gagne was converted to relief prior to the 2002 season, and has immedietly become the best reliever in the game today.

    2002: 4-1 1.97 55/82.1 114/16 52Sv
    2003: 2-3 1.20 37/82.1 137/20 55Sv

    Gagne's 107 saves are tied with Dave Righetti for 11th all-time in saves before the age of 28. While he is 71 behind the leader, Bobby Thigpen, no reliever has ever come close to the 107 Gagne has in the last two seasons. He has set the record for consecutive saves, which is still running at 63. And the scary thing about Gagne? He keeps getting better.

    2003 1st half: 1-3 1.99 23/45.1 76/11
    2003 2nd half: 1-0 0.24 14/37.0 61/9

    Yes, you read that right. Eric Gagne only gave up one earned run in thirty-seven second half innings. And that run? On August 20th, Gagne gave up solo shot to Vladimir Guerrero in his second inning of work. Since that time he didn't give up a run in 18.1 innings. I mean, he only gave up 8 HITS! To further put Gagne's 2003 in perspective, the following tables are top ten lists of pitchers with more than 80IP in a season against their league average in ERA, H/9 and K/9:

    ERA                           YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE   
    1    Pedro Martinez           2000     3.18     1.74     4.92   
    2    Roberto Hernandez        1996     3.09     1.91     5.00   
    3    Eric Gagne               2003     3.08     1.20     4.29   
    4    Mariano Rivera           1996     2.91     2.09     5.00   
    5    Tim Burke                1987     2.90     1.19     4.09   
    6    Pedro Martinez           1999     2.80     2.07     4.87   
    7    Robb Nen                 1998     2.71     1.52     4.24   
    8    Felix Rodriguez          2001     2.68     1.68     4.36   
    9    John Wetteland           1993     2.68     1.37     4.05   
    10   Greg Maddux              1994     2.66     1.56     4.22   
    
    

    HITS/9 IP YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
    1 Eric Gagne 2003 4.97 4.04 9.02
    2 Jeff Zimmerman 1999 4.52 5.13 9.66
    3 Pedro Martinez 2000 4.35 5.31 9.66
    4 Francisco Rodriguez 2003 4.07 5.23 9.30
    5 Scott Williamson 1999 4.05 5.21 9.25
    6 Mitch Williams 1987 3.97 5.22 9.19
    7 Trevor Hoffman 1996 3.93 5.11 9.05
    8 Ricky Bottalico 1995 3.93 5.13 9.06
    9 Tommy Byrne 1948 3.88 5.31 9.19
    10 Goose Gossage 1977 3.70 5.28 8.97

    STRIKEOUTS/9 IP YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
    1 Eric Gagne 2003 8.33 14.98 6.65
    2 Rob Dibble 1991 7.63 13.55 5.92
    3 Rob Dibble 1989 6.99 12.82 5.83
    4 Pedro Martinez 1999 6.97 13.20 6.24
    5 Rob Dibble 1990 6.71 12.49 5.78
    6 Randy Johnson 2001 6.42 13.41 6.99
    7 Randy Johnson 1995 6.28 12.35 6.07
    8 Tom Henke 1987 6.27 12.26 5.99
    9 Tom Henke 1989 6.25 11.73 5.48
    10 Pedro Martinez 2001 6.13 12.57 6.44

    After that, I think it is safe to say that Gagne's 2003 is the best relief season ever. No one has approached what he has done against league average in H/9 and K/9, and he is narrowly behind Pedro and Roberto Hernandez in ERA. There are so many fantastic stats about Gagne, the Dodgers should be paying him top reliever money, right?

    Well, there is one problem: this is his first offseason being eligible for arbitration. He joins superstars Alfonso Soriano and Albert Pujols in that regard, but Soriano has already signed (5.4M), and Pujols is discussing a long-term contract. Gagne and the Dodgers are negotiating a contract for 2004, but remain three million dollars apart, $6M vs. $9M. Using Doug Pappas' fantastic website, I found out that $9M would be by far the most a first-year eligible player has gone to an arbitrator, excluding the $9.5M that Pujols is asking for. At this point, Derek Jeter is the leader, asking for $5M preceding the 1999 season. The funny thing about Jeter's case...he won.

    Since Major League Baseball started using arbitration in 1974, players have a losing record of 194-259 (.428) against the owners, or about the record that the Cincinnati Reds had on the field last year. So Jeter's case is the exception to the rule. And is Eric Gagne, a reliever, more valuable than Jeter was after 1998, being a shortstop? That's a hard case to argue, because at that point Jeter joined two Hall of Famers who had posted three years of a .370OBP and .400SLG before the age of 25.

    In a perfect world, Gagne would earn contracts around those of fellow top-notch closers, Billy Wagner (8M), Mariano Rivera (8.89), and John Smoltz (11M). But as we know all so well, the MLB's economic system is flawed. If Eric Gagne's case goes to the arbitrator, he likely will lose. He deserves so much more.

    WTNYJanuary 24, 2004
    Food for Thought
    By Bryan Smith

    Rare weekend post, as there are a few topics I want to hit on, and a few I'd like to revisit. The first is about my article yesterday, in which I wrote about the throwing sessions of Orlando Hernandez and Maels Rodriguez. Will Carroll wrote on his blog yesterday that Rodriguez failed to top 90mph, maxing out at 87 with his fastball. El Duque, throwing at 85%, never hit above 78. This will hurt their 2004 salaries, and Maels is going to need to have a very impressive second outing to attract a signing. The Red Sox said that Maels was low to mid-90s earlier in the week, but could that have been to start driving up what the Yankees have to pay?

    Since we're on the topic of bullpen sessions, Yankee Steve Karsay had an impressive workout on Friday, throwing 30 fastballs from the bullpen mound. The team isn't sure if Karsay will be ready for Opening Day, but it looks like the Yanks will have their #4 RH out of the bullpen back at full strength early on in the season.

    I've ripped Dan O'Dowd often at this blog, so I couldn't hesitate from smiling when hearing that the team had signed LHP Shawn Estes to a minor league contract on Friday. This is O'Dowd trying to recreate the Darren Oliver addition from a year ago, but it just won't work. Estes does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, but if he was terrible in Wrigley, what is going to happen in Coors? Yikes.

    Bob Melvin was talking about reshuffling the Mariner lineup this year, possibly moving Ichiro Suzuki to the #3 hole. Peter White of Mariner Musings and David Cameron at the U.S.S. Mariner have done a good job analyzing this move, saying that Ichiro is better fitted for hitting with runners on base. Cameron presents a mock lineup with arguments for each spot, something I hope to do for every Major League team here in the coming weeks. I can't say I agree with putting John Olerud in the fourth hole, but it will be bad enough when Bob Melvin makes Raul Ibanez his fifth hitter.

    Finally, I never touched on the Glendon Rusch signing this week, so I thought this would be a good time to sound off my thoughts. Before this season, I couldn't have imagined a situation where a 1-12 pitcher would be sought after, but Glendon Rusch actually had some options. Mike Maddux worked wonders on Rusch, who had a 3.23ERA in the second half, with most of his appearances in relief. Maybe Rusch is built for middle/long relief, but I'm a believer that he can return to usefulness after years of inadequacy. I actually prefer this signing to Kenny Rogers, although the Gambler is a lot more likely to waste rotation space.

    E-mail me with thoughts, suggestions, column ideas, etc.

    WTNYJanuary 23, 2004
    Cuban Refugees
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, two Cuban pitchers took the mound in front of Major League scouts in an attempt to attract a large offer. One is a 24-year-old flamethrower that would be a 'rookie' in 2004, while the other is a 38-year-old five-year veteran. The latter has accumulated more than 50 wins during that time, including a 17-win 1999. Both have large injury concerns, the younger was said to lose 10mph off his fastball last year, while the elder didn't pitch in 2003.

    So, that begs the questions, where will Maels Rodriguez and Orlando Hernandez pitch in 2004, and how effective will they be?

    Hernandez threw at the University of Houston yesterday morning, in front of scouts from twenty Major League teams. El Duque said through an interpreter that he was about 85%, and that he would be 100% by Spring Training. Hernandez looked to have revive his career with a strong 2002 season, but shoulder surgery kept him out a year ago.

    In 2002, Hernandez made 22 starts with the Yankees, compiling an 8-5 record with a 3.64ERA. He only allowed 131 hits in 146 innings, while striking out 113. His K/9 has always been around 7.00 during his career, but a K/BB of 3.14 was a career high. El Duque has always been a flyball pitcher, as his career GB/FB rate of 0.81 shows. Hernandez throws a ton of different pitches, and has used almost every arm angle in the book. In 2002 he revived the 'eephus' pitch, an lob that he threw to Alex Rodrigeuz, that the slugger promptly hit out of Arlington Park.

    So far, we know that the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Pirates were all present to see Hernandez throw. The Yankees seemed to be there out of courtesy, as vice president of major league scouting Damon Oppenheimer said, "We have a lot of respect for him, so we wanted to make sure we were down here." That doesn't indicate a whole lot of current interest, so don't expect the Yankees to make a run after him. Returning to New York is a possibility, but it would be as a member of the Mets. Hernandez would be effective in Shea Stadium, but not in Texas, another possible destination.

    As for Maels Rodriguez, details of his throwing session haven't been published yet, but the Red Sox had a private workout with the right-hander earlier in the week. The "100mph fastball" that Cubans bragged about wasn't quite true, although the Red Sox did have him in the mid-90s. Rodriguez set the Cuban record for strikeouts in the 2000 season, compiling 263 in 178.1 innings. He was limited to 113 innings last year, but kept his strikeouts high at 117.

    In a USA Today article this week, Milton Jamail, author of Full Count: Inside Cuban Baseball is quoted as saying "If I was a team with a lot of money, I'd take a chance with Maels. If I was in a middle market, I wouldn't consider it." Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan repeated more of the same, saying "When I see certain (big-spending) teams are going, I figure 'What's the point?.'"

    The main competitors for Maels' services figure to be the Yankees, Rangers, and Mariners. With the retirement of Kaz Sasaki, the Mariners have the most money to spend, but Tom Hicks and George Steinbrenner aren't used to standing down in auctions. Rodriguez would help the Rangers the most, who have needed an ace atop their staff since Nolan Ryan left. Maels would replace Gil Meche in the Mariner rotation, but wouldn't even be guaranteed a spot with the Yankees. Instead, he would battle it out in Spring Training with Tommy John surgery recoveree Jon Lieber.

    If Rodriguez signs with the Yankees he is likely to follow the path of fellow Cuban Jose Contreras. But, that's where the comparisons between the two countrymen end. Contreras was said to be Cuba's best pitcher, and is a 6-4, 224 lbs. beast. Rodriguez is said to be 5-11, which will turn many scouts away. While I consider Contreras with the highest regard, Rodriguez shouldn't be expected to have the same success. Someone will drastically overpay for Maels, who should be a little above league average during the life of the deal he signs.

    In other workout news, A.J. Burnett had a 23-pitch session in the Florida bullpen Thursday, and is making fantastic progress from elbow surgery. The Marlins will pick up Rick Reed in the next couple of days, and Reed will hold down the 5th starter spot until Burnett is ready. Expect A.J. to start the season on the D.L., then appear in 5-10 games in relief, and then to bounce Reed from the team.

    Jimy Williams announced yesterday that Tim Redding will be Houston's 5th starter, eliminating any competition that would have taken place in camp. This was disheartening for the likes of Carlos Hernandez, Jeriome Robertson, and Brandon Duckworth, but was the best move for the team. The rotation will be the least of Houston's worries in 2004, and Williams should spend camp much more worried about his offense and bullpen.

    Finally, Roy Halladay signed a 4-year extension on Thursday, worth $42M. This is less than the $45M that Javier Vazquez signed for, and should help set the market for Kerry Wood and Kevin Millwood. Consider what Halladay and Vazquez have done the last two seasons:

    Halladay: 41-14 3.10 476/505.1 372/94
    Vazquez: 23-25 3.57 441/461.0 420/106

    And here is what Wood and Millwood have done:

    Wood: 26-22 3.43 321/424.2 483/197
    Millwood: 32-20 3.63 396/439 347/133

    And yes Jim Hendry and Ed Wade, you should use that in negotiations. Have a good weekend.

    WTNYJanuary 22, 2004
    Far Eastern Entry
    By Bryan Smith

    Earlier this week I discussed the story of Kaz Sasaki, the ex-Mariner that has opted not to return to the Major Leagues in 2004. Instead, he will stay with his family, yet hasn't ruled out the possibility of pitching in Japan. If he decides to do so, he'll be only 31 saves from becoming the Japanese all-time saves leader, a gap that should not widen any further since current recordholder, Shingo Takatsu, will be coming to America after signing a one-year, $1M contract with the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

    Consider that when Kaz Sasaki left Japan after the 1999 season, he 'retired' with 229 saves. At that time, Takatsu only had 98 saves, but has caught on like wild fire the last five years, notching 162 saves in that span. Here is a look at what Takatsu has done from 1999-2003:

    1999: 30Sv 2.18ERA 32H/41.1IP 38K/8BB
    2000: 29Sv 2.08ERA 32H/34.2IP 29K/8BB
    2001: 37Sv 2.61ERA 49H/51.2IP 39K/13BB
    2002: 32Sv 3.89ERA 37H/41.2IP 28K/11BB
    2003: 34Sv 3.00ERA 42H/42.0IP 26K/21BB

    While his save totals and ERA are somewhat impressive, his peripheral numbers are less than amazing. His H/9 in the last five years is only 8.18, and has risen to 8.51 in the last three seasons. A K/9 rate of 6.81 isn't very intriguing, especially considering that number has decreased in each of the last five years. His K/BB has also decreased each season, hitting a concerning 1.24 last year. Admittedly it's hard to put these numbers into context with the MLB, so we'll look at how another closer (Sasaki) did before coming to Seattle. Here are Kaz Sasaki's numbers from 1995-1999:

    1995: 32Sv 1.75ERA 30H/56.2IP 78K/17BB
    1996: 25Sv 2.90ERA 37H/49.2IP 80K/16BB
    1997: 38Sv 0.90ERA 25H/60.0IP 99K/17BB
    1998: 45Sv 0.64ERA 32H/56.0IP 78K/13BB
    1999: 19Sv 1.93ERA 19H/21.1IP 34K/6BB

    Sasaki blows Takatsu away in every stat except saves, which is due to an injury-plagued 1999. Sasaki's H/9 of 5.28 dwarfs the Japanese saves leader's of 8.18, and Sasaki actually improved (4.98) in from 1997-1999. Kaz had an insanely high K/9 of 13.63, and a better BB/9 to boot. He was a much better pitcher, so his Major League success shouldn't be a surprise. Remember that in 2000, the year in which Sasaki won American League Rookie of the Year, his H/9 'rose' to 6.03, and his K/9 'fell' to 11.20. That means his H/9 rose 14.2%, while his K/9 fell 17.8%. If this happens to Takatsu, he'll have a H/9 of 9.34, and a K/9 of 5.60. Projected to 60 innings: 62.27 hits and 37.33 strikeouts. The man they call "Mr. Zero" in Japan may be worth just that.

    If this is true, Takatsu will prove to be worth less than the $1M that Jerry Reinsdorf is paying him, but it's a decent bargain. Takatsu is still almost guaranteed a bullpen slot, along with Damaso Marte, Billy Koch, Cliff Politte, and Kelly Wunsch. That leaves only one to two bullpen slots open, yet the White Sox have hardly filled the roles. Possible relievers Scott Schoenweis and Danny Wright sit at the back end of the rotation, leaving uncertainty amidst the Sox pitching staff. So the team took a few gambles Wednesday, signing Vic Darensbourg, Robert Person, Mike Jackson, and Jose Santiago all to minor league contracts.

    Ken Williams is still high off his Esteban Loaiza find, so don't be surprised to see him plucking underachieving veterans off the market for years to come. This year the big name is Robert Person, the former-15 game winner that fell off the face of the planet after a 2002 injury. He's only two years removed from usefulness, and even kept a high K rate in his short stint with the Red Sox. It's possible Person nabs a rotation job in Spring Training, which says less about the Sox than it does to compliment Person. Jackson and Santiago seem to be insurance that Billy Koch and Cliff Pollitte don't break down, but it's also entirely feasible one ends up with a middle relief job. Jackson's 2002 and Santiago's 2003 seem relatively similar, because they both kept ERAs down despite pretty bad peripheral numbers. The Sox organization is loaded with left-handers (Marte, Wunsch, Sanders, Munoz, Meaux, etc), so Darensbourg is probably in the wrong situation. He appears to be a 4-A pitcher that will get the inevitable cups of coffee for 15 games or so a year.

    The team also made a few offensive moves yesterday, signing minor league infielders Bobby Smith, Kelly Dransfeldt, and Mike Bell to contracts, along with outfielder Marvin Benard. The infielders are Williams way of creating competition at second, which leads to asking, why again did they trade Aaron Miles? Bell and Dransfeldt are poor souls that never succeed, and are better suited for the Southern League than the International. Bobby Smith, on the other hand, has had four great IL years in the last five, but never gets it done at the ML level. He'll be tempting, but I guess when Willie Harris is the favorite, even Harold Reynolds would be appealing.

    One big question surrounding Bernard is, can he still play centerfield? If so, the team's selection in him, and his selection of the White Sox make sense. He will make the team either way, but actually has a chance at a starting job in center. The competition will be between him, Aaron Rowand, and Jeremy Reed, whom I will label as the Proven Veteran, the favorite, and the rookie. Ozzie Guillen's choice will be reflective of his managerial style, something important to look out for in the early months.

    All I know is, the White Sox are almost finished. With Bernard, Person, and Takatsu, the team's depth chart is up to 23 names. If we assume that Jackson, Santiago, or Darensbourg wins a rotation slot, we're at 24. That leaves one spot open for a hitter, and right now we only see Jamie Burke and Ross Gload vying for spots, yet more could be added later. The White Sox will need things to break right and for some people to bounce back in 2004 (see Konerko, Crede, Koch, Buerhle, Person) to contend. I see Kansas City and Minnesota as better teams at this moment, but time will tell. Tomorrow I'll be back on Maels Rodriguez, and his possible destinations.

    (Thanks to japanesebaseball.com for all the Japanese statistics used in this article)

    WTNYJanuary 21, 2004
    Asked and Answered
    By Bryan Smith

    I didn't think I had anything to write about today, until Twins Fan Dan over at Will Carroll's blog posed the question,
    "What the sam-hell is Mark Shapiro doing?" For me, that question is definitely worthy of a 1,000 word response. Here's more than you will ever want to know about the 2004 Cleveland Indians, starting with their rough depth chart:

    Position Players
    C- Victor Martinez
    1B- Travis Hafner
    2B- Ronnie Belliard
    SS- Omar Vizquel
    3B- Casey Blake
    LF- Escobar/Ludwick/Broussard
    CF- Milton Bradley
    RF- Jody Gerut
    DH- Matt Lawton
    Bench= Josh Bard, Ricky Gutierrez, John McDonald, Broussard/Escobar/Ludwick, Crisp

    Pitching Staff
    Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Jason Davis, Cliff Lee, Bere/Durbin/Stanford

    Bullpen: Bob Wickman, Jose Jimenez, David Riske, Scott Stewart, Rafael Betancourt, Jack Cressend

    I see potential in that roster, especially when considering how hogtied Shapiro is. He was in the organization in their mid-90s glory years, but agreed to take over a team that would have to see a signifcant decrease in salary. Last season, their Opening Day payroll was $47.6M, yet that will be on the decline next season. After recently signing David Riske and Scott Stewart to contracts, this is the list of guaranteed contracts the Indians will pay next season:

    Vizquel- 7.500
    Lawton- 6.750
    Wickman- 5.300
    Gutierrez- 3.820
    Sabathia- 2.450
    Bradley- 1.430
    Riske- 1.025
    Wohlers- 1.000
    Jimenez- 1.000
    Belliard- 1.000
    Westbrook- .925
    Stewart- .850
    Bere- .400

    TOTAL= $33.450

    That means eleven of the twenty-six players I named above are under contract, so fifteen others will be auto-renewals. At most, that will cost about $6M, leaving the Indians payroll below $40M. With that little money, I'm much quicker to compliment Mark Shapiro than to question his motives.

    First of all, the Indians are going to have a very good bullpen next season. Three of the members, the returnees of the group, had very good 2003 seasons. David Riske became the closer late in the season, and was very impressive. He gave up just a .196 average allowed, a K/9 rate of 9.88, and a fantastic 4.10 K/BB. While he's underrated, Rafael Betancourt may just be the best reliever you didn't know existed. After some insane AA numbers (33H/45.1IP 75K/13BB), the team quickly promoted him to Cleveland, in which he gave them 33 games with a 2.13ERA. Like Riske, his AVE allowed was .196, especially displaying great skills at negating right-handers (.133/.165/.253 allowed). Cressend bounced back from a poor 2002 very nicely, posting a 2.51ERA in 40+ innings. Cressend allowed only 2ER between 30 AA and AAA innings, and continued that middle relief success in the Major Leagues. The three 2003 Indians won't draw a lot of press, but are as effective as any trio at what they do, and should be valued higher in the stat-head community.

    After that insanely long paragraph, I move to the other 3 bullpen members, whom Shapiro is counting on to bounce back. The first of which is Jose Jimenez, who finally gets to leave the altitude of Coors. Despite having a 5.81ERA as a reliever, there remains a lot to like about the former Rockie closer. For instance, Jimenez hasn't allowed his GB/FB ratio to dip from 2.50 in any season during his career, and the slick Indian infield should help. His HR ratio will also decline, but Jimenez needs to work on taking his K/BB back in the 4.27 range (see 2002), rather than 1.73 (see career). Stewart and Wickman are both hoping to bounce back from injuries, although Stewart had time for 51 average games last season. His effectiveness vs. LH dipped, and to be successful his LH Ave. allowed must regress to past seasons.

    The rotation is going to...well, struggle. The team's rotation had a 4.41ERA last year, and I can't expect that to dip too much this year. C.C. Sabathia keeps pitching well despite worrying injury-gurus like Mr. Carroll. No matter how you slice it, Sabathia's an innings-eater who will allow an OPS of about .700, strike out about 6.5 per 9, and relies on his ability to get the ball over the plate on any given day. His ERA dropped last season largely because his 66BB were the lowest of his career. The only other starter I like is prospect Cliff Lee, part of what Shapiro got for Bartolo Colon in 2002. Lee had nine solid Major League starts, showing good hit and strikeout rates. For you fantasy players, Lee wouldn't be a bad last-round pick, as he could have 140K's very easily this season.

    Victor Martinez and Milton Bradley are the only 2 starts that are 25 (or younger), and both have very bright futures. Bradley took a quantum leap last season, finally displaying what once made him a top Expos prospect. Bradley's OBP skills were fantastic, and it looks like he needs to be patient for success to come. He looks like a solid HR/SB guy, and could be 25/25 for sure. If he doesn't develop that power, he'll be good in the leadoff slot anyways. Martinez was a top prospect a year ago, and held his own in a 159AB stint with the Indians last season. He showed good contact and OBP skills, yet had absolutely no power. The team is praying that his September line of .344/.417/.422 is indicative of his talents, and I think so. Don't be shocked to see Martinez hit .290/.360/.400 next season, which would battle Benito Santiago for top catcher in the division.

    The other youngsters from the lineup, the 2003 rookies, are Travis Hafner and Jody Gerut. The latter impressed the most, actually finishing top-3 for Rookie of the Year voting. Jody came out of nowhere to have 57 extra-base hits, including 22HR. In the end, he may end up a platoonable player, as he did hit .306/.360/.564 vs. RH, as opposed to .209/.274/.313 against southpaws. I like Gerut's potential, and he should be the lineup's power source this year. Helping will be Hafner, who didn't garner any attention, but caught on late. His second half numbers are .273/.348/.519, and he hit nine home runs in his final 156AB. Don't be shocked if he hits 25HR out of nowhere, and if the Indians actually have a decent middle-of-the-order (Gerut-Bradley-Hafner).

    Finally, there are the veterans. Lawton and Vizquel are on the decline, yet both could post OBPs above .340, and I think Eric Wedge will place them atop the order. Casey Blake had a nice season, clubbing more than 50XBH after signing a minor league contracts. These are the moves Shapiro must thrive on, those being minor league signings, the waiver wire, and small trades. Ronnie Belliard is the no-name signing that Shapiro is bullish on, yet I must say I'm unimpressed. At best, you are looking at .280/.350/.400, which would be an improvement on the .209/.247/.320 line Indians 2B had last year.

    And then, there is the Master Plan. Shapiro is praying that Brandon Phillips turns things around, that Grady Sizemore develops power, and that Michael Aubrey and Brad Snyder turn out. The team lacks a left side for the future, but everything else is covered, and covered well. Jeremy Guthrie will be in the Majors this season, possibly before June, and will be another great Stanford arm. The team has a ton of more prospects, and Shapiro is really planning on 2008-2010 being his years. Will Indian ownership being willing to wait? Hey, Chuck LaMar got his time.

    WTNYJanuary 20, 2004
    Far Eastern Retirement
    By Bryan Smith

    In a shocking move, yesterday Kaz Sasaki's agent announced he has no intentions of playing professional baseball in the United States, bypassing the $9.5M he was set to make from the Seattle Mariners. Sasaki wished to be closer to his family, and has no ruled out the possibility of playing in Japan. This move comes a little late for Bill Bavasi, who has already struggled mightily in his newest role atop the Mariner organization. Sasaki was penciled in as the Mariner's closer, although the team couldn't have been that excited about him:

    2000: 6.03H/9, 4.45BB/9, 11.20K/9
    2001: 6.48H/9, 1.49BB/9, 8.37K/9
    2002: 6.53H/9, 2.97BB/9, 10.83K/9
    2003: 8.37H/9, 4.05BB/9, 7.83K/9

    And by using the Rob Neyer style, I'm going to break that into 2:

    2000-2001: 6.26H/9, 2.92BB/9, 9.74K/9
    2002-2003: 7.18H/9, 3.35BB/9, 9.77K/9

    So, Sasaki's worst year came in 2003, and in the last two years, he's become much worse. His H/9 ratio increased in each of his four seasons, and excluding a walk-full rookie season, his walk ratio is on the upswing. His K/9 hit an all-time low in 2003, but a solid 2002 kept his K/9 equal to the previous two seasons. Some blame Sasaki's terrible 2003 on injuries, but I say his fastball just lost the pop it once had.

    Much of Sasaki's bad year can be blamed on a disastrous April, in which he gave up nine earned runs in nine innings, blowing four out of his eight save attempts. He then seldomly pitched until August, upon which allowing a 4.91ERA and not getting a save opportunity. He finished September fine, but it was too little, too late. Sasaki's final win share total was 3.58, which can be rounded to 4. That converts to about one and one-third wins, or half of Rafael Soriano's contributions.

    So, we've established that Sasaki's absence won't hurt the team from a talent standpoint, but where does that leave them? The team will now look something like this in the pitching department:

    Rotation
    1. Jamie Moyer- LHP
    2. Freddy Garcia- RHP
    3. Joel Pineiro- RHP
    4. Ryan Franklin- RHP
    5. Gil Meche- RHP

    Bullpen
    CL- Rafael Soriano- RHP
    SU- Eddie Guardado- LHP
    MR- Shigetoshi Hasegawa- RHP
    MR- Julio Mateo- RHP
    LOOGY- Mike Myers
    Long-Relief- Kevin Jarvis- LHP

    Well, it doesn't exactly rival the Angels and Athletics, but hey, it beats the Rangers! Wasting Soriano in the closer's role (or maybe even set-up), while letting Gil Meche pitch in the rotation is indefensible, but hardly unbelievable from what we've come to expect from Mariner brass. Now word has it the team is interested in putting Sasaki's money into Maels Rodriguez, which I support. Cuban pitchers have done very well when coming to the United States, but some worry about the condition of Maels' arm. That will be settled January 22nd, but I think he might be better suited for the closer's role. And hey, the Mariners didn't do horribly the last time they overpayed for a foreign player to close.

    With Soriano in the fifth slot, Rodriguez closing, Bavasi then might be able to trade Ben Davis, Gil Meche, and maybe even Kevin Jarvis. I really like the Mike Myers addition, as I supported the Cubs signing him months ago. When used in the right role, Myers can be very solid. Last year, lefties hit .237/.314/.421 off of Myers, and their OPS is a combined .692 in the last three seasons. He struggles vs. RH, but a good manager keeps him out of those situations. Given the right managing, I believe Myers can post a sub-3.00ERA again, but hey, I got a thing for sidearmers.

    In the end, the Mariners will have a hard time moving from third place. Bill Bavasi has become one of the game's worst GMs in his first offseason, starting with the Raul Ibanez signing. You know it's bad when a player quitting is one of the better moves of the winter months...

    WTNYJanuary 19, 2004
    Baseball After Football Sunday
    By Bryan Smith

    It has been really hard for me to sit down and write this column because, well, nothing is going on in the baseball world. I'm sorry, but the signings of Rey Ordonez, Reggie Taylor, and Edgar Huerta don't really inspire me to write. There are some exciting long-term negotiations being discussed between Albert Pujols and the Cardinals, and Kerry Wood with the Cubs. On Thursday, Maels Rodriguez and Yobal Duenas will try out for teams, so Maels negotiations should fly through the roof.

    Another happening of note is that the Detroit Tigers offered Pudge Rodriguez a four-year, $40M contract. Some say Pudge allowed the Tigers to get in the process to increase the Cubs offer, but Jim Hendry has called Boras' bluff. This is the best offer that Pudge is going to get anywhere, and I'm not exactly sure he's worth it.

    Last year, Rodriguez was actually better in Pro Player Stadium, with his numbers declining to .279/.336/.443 on the road. Right-handers have started to get the best of him, as he only hit .274/.340/.444 against them last season. While he had a fantastic post season, Rodriguez declined in the second half, hitting only .294/.361/.417. In fact, Pudge only hit three home runs in the second half, during which time he had 218AB. Yes, that number should scare teams away, although the Tigers don't exactly have a lot to replace.

    One of the reasons behind the Tigers ghastly performance in 2003, was the pitiful job done by their backstops. The catchers for Detroit hit a combined .190/.243/.308, led by the ever-terrible forgotten prospect Brandon Inge. Inge was the only of four catchers the Tigers had to hit above .200, although during 330AB, he hit only .203. The team chose Chris Shelton first overall in the Rule V Draft, although teams see Matt LeCroy in Shelton, so he won't get much time catching in 2004.

    If the Rodriguez acquisition were to go through, Dave Dambrowski will have likely improved his team in four positions. Here are the lines for C, 2B, SS, and LF, of which the Tigers will/might have Rodriguez, Vina, Guillen, and Rondell White next season:

    C- .190/.243/.308
    2B- .253/.307/.350
    SS- .220/.283/.282
    LF- .244/.294/.480

    And here are the lines of the four "replacements"...

    Rodriguez- .297/.369/.474
    Vina- .251/.309/.382
    Guillen- .276/.359/.394
    White- .289/.341/.488

    Those four represent vast improvements, as they combined for something along the lines of .278/.355/.435, compared to the Tigers 2003 foursome of about .227/.282/.355. Also, consider that Dmitri Young, the Tigers lone All-Star whom hit .297/.372/.537 will now have all his at-bats in the DH slot, which accumulated a .270/.341/.440 line a year ago. Dave Dambrowski is hoping to see improvements from Carlos Pena and Eric Munson, while accepting that Alex Sanchez and the Bobby Higginson/Craig Monroe spots of the lineup will hurt the team.

    As for Munson, I'm excited to see if his bat will catch up with the potential it once had. Remember, Munson hit 53HR in 1100 minor league AB, giving scouts much to drool over. Last year, the converted third basemen hit .240/.312/.441 in his first extended test of the Major Leagues. Yet, there was still potential within his bat. Munson showed a definite platoonable split, hitting only .208/.299/.377 in 77AB against southpaws. Fifteen of his eighteen home runs came against right-handers, and in only 236AB. Although he got injured, Eric was starting to turn it on as the season went on. Excusing a July slump, Munson improved with each month:

    April: .175/.273/.333
    May: .256/.344/.423
    June: .291/.321/.506
    July: .206/.316/.444
    August: .273/.294/.545

    So not including his July slump, Munson's OPS improved in each month, as he got more used to Major League life. I expect big things in 2004, especially 30HR. A .260/.330/.500 line is not out of his grasp. For you fantasy baseball competitiors, Munson is actually not a bad bench option to have, if not just for his power.

    Dambrowski also improved the rotation this off season, recently signing Jason Johnson to a two-year contract. While Johnson's potential isn't very high, it hasn't been matched yet. His career GB/FB ratio of 1.05 wasn't great for Camden Yards, but will suffice in the spacious Comerica Park. Johnson succeeded with a high WHIP last season, which isn't the greatest indicator for future success. But, Jason has done well against most (excluding the White Sox) of his AL Central foes in recent seasons, and that move will help considerably. While I think Johnson's ERA will rise from 4.19 next season, he should pitch better than he did in 2003, and give hope for a promising 2005.

    The rest of the rotation is up for grabs, with only Mike Maroth also guaranteed a spot. The final three slots will be a battle with Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Cornejo, Wil Ledezma, Matt Roney, Nate Robertson, Gary Knotts and more competiting for. The team is going to have to live and learn with Bonderman, and I imagine Trammell will pick Nate Cornejo, whom almost was the Tiger All-Star last season. Ledezma has the most promising future of the bunch, but he and Rule V partner Matt Roney struggled mightily in the few starts they were given. Robertson and Knotts didn't impress either, so really, it's a crapshoot. Anyways, don't be surprised if the team makes another stupid decision, hurrying the likes of Kenny Baugh or Preston Larrison.

    The final piece of the puzzle is the bullpen, which I think could be good in 2004. I like the idea of Fernando (Rodney) & Franklyn (German) finishing games, as the two large guys can bring a lot of heat. As can Matt Anderson, whom may or may not be ready to get back to the pitcher he once was. Veterans Danny Patterson and Al Levine will solidify the right-handed situation. Knotts, Chris Spurling, and Chris Mears will also fight for slots. Left-hander Jamie Walker is a damn good LOOGY, as lefties only got on base 25.4% of the time last season.

    So, there you go. I didn't know where I was headed when I started the article, but then went on a 1,000 word rant on the Tigers. In conclusion, I give you there newly updated depth chart (with Pudge), which unfortunately, doesn't have Cody Ross on it.

    Starting Lineup
    1. Fernando Vina- 2B
    2. Carlos Guillen- SS
    3. Pudge Rodriguez- C
    4. Dmitri Young- DH
    5. Rondell White- LF
    6. Carlos Pena- 1B
    7. Eric Munson- 3B
    8. Bobby Higginson- RF
    9. Alex Sanchez- CF

    Bench
    1. Mike Diefelice- C
    2. Chris Shelton- C/1B
    3. Greg Norton- 1B/3B/OF
    4. Craig Monroe- OF
    5. Pablo Ozuna/Omar Infante- MI

    Starting Rotation
    1. Jason Johnson- RH
    2. Mike Maroth- LH
    3. Jeremy Bonderman- RH
    4. Nate Cornejo- RH
    5. Wil Ledezma- LH

    Bullpen
    1. Fernando Rodney- RH
    2. Franklyn German- RH
    3. Matt Anderson- RH
    4. Danny Patterson- RH
    5. Al Levine- RH
    6. Jamie Walker- LH
    7. Chris Mears- RH

    And while this whole article was about free agent Pudge Rodriguez, Walt Jocketty announced today the team will not be pursuing other top free agent Greg Maddux, who has seen his market decline more and more. I'm going to step out on a limb here and say either Pudge or Mad-Dog ends up with my Cubbies.

    WTNYJanuary 16, 2004
    Coming Back Home
    By Bryan Smith

    When the Houston Astros signed Andy Pettite, I blasted the team for overpaying for an overrated southpaw. I was hoping to do the same when the team I hate the most signed Roger Clemens, another player I hate. But, the evidence proves me wrong here, Roger Clemens is still one helluva pitcher. For $5 million, the Astros got a steal. Here's why:

    Overall: 17-9 3.91 199/211.2 190/58
    Home: 7-7 5.22 115/108.2 110/36
    Away: 10-2 2.53 84/103 80/22
    Pre-ASB: 8-6 3.68 111/124.2 128/35
    Post-ASB: 9-3 4.24 88/87 62/23

    Well, his splits are very clearly defined. Roger struggled in Yankee Stadium last season, but he hasn't always done so. Here's a look at Roger's home splits the previous four seasons:

    2002: 9-1 2.84 74/101.1 122/27
    2001: 10-1 3.10 83/98.2 98/26
    2000: 8-4 3.86 110/126 123/42
    1999: 9-5 3.56 103/113.2 102/46

    So before this season's glitch, Clemens had been fantastic at home, accumulating a 36-11 record from 1999-2002. So, was last season a hiccup? Well, we don't know. But, here's a look at where he succeeded:

    @ANA: 2-0 1.06 11/17 11/1
    @BAL: 1-0 1.88 12/14.1 9/3
    @TB: 2-1 3.43 15/21 15/6

    Fenway was the only other stadium that Clemens threw 10 innings at last season, and his ERA was 4.26 there. In the last three seasons, Clemens has had a 6.18ERA against his former team the last three years, and will be happy to get away from Beantown. But, consider that Clemens won't be facing the Twins (0.41 in 22), the Angels (1.78 in 30.1), the Athletics (1.82 in 34.2), and the Devil Rays (2.85 in 101). Roger's done fairly well in limited experience against NL opponents, and I doubt he'll be intimidated by the likes of Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati.

    One point against Clemens is that his K/9 was 'only' 8.08 last season, which was his second lowest in the last nine seasons. Only in 1999 did he go lower (7.82), and that was his worst season of note. But, to Clemens' credit, he also got much better with walks. His K/BB was the best since 1997, his 2.05 ERA year, and it was the first time his OBP allowed was under .300 since 1998. His SLG against has been above .375 each of the last five seasons, and has sat close to .400 each of the last two years. His 24HR allowed were the second highest of his career, not a good sign for moving to the smaller Minute Maid Park.

    Interestingly enough, Clemens has been much tougher against lefties than righties the last three seasons, largely because of his splitter. Against southpaws, Clemens has allowed a stingy .224/.300/.347, but a .276/.315/.438 line vs. right-handers. That will actually hurt him against the likes of the Cubs (Sosa, Lee, Ramirez, etc.), and the Cardinals (Pujols, Renteria, Rolen).

    What Clemens role will be in Houston isn't quite defined yet. There are rumors that Clemens will solely pitch in Minute Maid, that he will seldomly pitch away, or that he'll aim for all 32 starts. The club has room to carry a swingman 6th rotation member, with Carlos Hernandez, Jeriome Robertson, and Brandon Duckworth all eligible for that role. Clemens will surely feel the effects of pitching in a smaller stadium, and should be effected to facing some great in-division right-handed bats. But overall, Clemens will be earning $2.5M less than Sidney Ponson next season, and will be considerably less than Greg Maddux.

    How will Roger Clemens do in Texas? ERA above 4.00, a K/9 above 8.10, and 12-15 wins. And no, the drama of him batting every fifth day won't be as great as the media is hoping. That's it, I'm out.

    WTNYJanuary 15, 2004
    This and That
    By Bryan Smith

    Not much happening in baseball of note, so it won't be a long post for me today. I'd like to first mention that my prediction on Jay Payton to the Padres came through, and I am very impressed with the San Diego lineup. In case you had forgotten, here it is:

    1. Sean Burroughs- 3B
    2. Mark Loretta- 2B
    3. Brian Giles- OF
    4. Ryan Klesko- OF
    5. Phil Nevin- 1B
    6. Ramon Hernandez- C
    7. Jay Payton- CF
    8. Khalil Greene- SS

    Throw that with David Wells and some young, developing pitchers, and you have a divisional contender. While I don't think Jay Payton will hit .280 with the Padres, his help will be substantial. The Orioles signed Sidney Ponson to a three-year deal Wednesday, ending a long courtship that began last July. Ponson will make $7.5M next year, or what Greg Maddux is being offered by the Cubs. That's too much money to pay here, but they needed to find a way to take some pressure off a disastrous rotation.

    A pair of formerly decent right-handed relievers signed in the last two days, as Turk Wendell went to Colorado, and Mike Williams to Tampa. Turk had a very good ERA and H/9 last year, but his BB/K was as ugly as they come. I worry about Wendell for this one fact:

    1999- 0.62
    2000- 0.94
    2001- 0.76
    2003- 0.89

    In his last four seasons, Wendell has a lot more flyballs than groundballs, and that spells trouble in Colorado. That's going to be a pretty bad bullpen in Colorado, but Clint Hurdle better be sure to go to Steve Reed in important situations, not Wendell. As for Williams, I like the low-risk minor league signing. Williams has been good four of the last six years, and his ERA has bested 3.00 in that span twice. He gets a lot of grounders, and I think Mike has a decent chance of helping out the D-Rays in 2004.

    Now, using the work I've done in the past week, here are a few predictions for where free agents go:

    Greg Maddux- Cubs
    Ivan Rodriguez- Tigers
    Ugueth Urbina- Twins
    Raul Mondesi- Orioles
    Orlando Hernandez- Marlins
    Rick Reed- Mets
    Scott Sauerbeck- Marlins
    Randall Simon- Pirates
    Glendon Rusch- Rangers
    Pedro Astacio- Rockies
    Mark Guthrie- Phillies

    That's enough for now, but if you want more of my educated guesses, let me know. In the coming days, expect to hear lots of Greg Maddux talk, as he would be smart to get the contract out of the way before January 22nd, when the Maels Rodriguez show hits the United States. The report the Mariners are interested doesn't make sense, and I can't see him in anything but pinstripes. Richard Hidalgo or Jacque Jones will be traded to the Dodgers, guaranteed. If they can do that in conjunction with signing Pudge, my feelings on Dan Evans might change yet. How about this in LA?...

    1. Trade Paul Lo Duca for Jacque Jones
    2. Sign Pudge Rodriguez
    3. Sign Travis Lee

    Just an idea. I'll be back tomorrow with you more regularly scheduled program...

    WTNYJanuary 14, 2004
    Five Degrees of Vladimir Guerrero
    By Bryan Smith

    I'd like to announce that today's article will also be posted at www.baseballinteractive.com in the coming days, so do me a favor and check that out. It looks like I will be a regular contributor to their site, and I highly suggest heading over there and reading the works of Mike C, Alex Belth, John Strudel, and the other new addition, Seth Stohs. I thank Baseball Interactive for this opportunity, and hopefully everyone enjoys what they see there. Anyways, here is the article...

    Vladimir Guerrero signing with the Angels has been the most shocking baseball news of 2004, for those of us who don't care about Pete Rose. After months of chess matches between Guerrero's agents, the Orioles, the Mets, and other teams, the Angels came out of nowhere to land the league's best rightfielder. The surprise was reminiscent of Florida signing Pudge a year ago, as Arte Moreno invested $70 million to renew Anaheim's forgotten optimism.

    This signing has a substantial effect on a number of teams, notably his new and former teams, the Orioles, the Mets, and the Marlins. Guerrero will dictate what lineups teams will use in 2004, and also how they will finish the off season. Vladimir Guerrero was this year's top free agent, and while he was passed around until mid-January, it's still one of the top three most monumental moves of the past three months.

    To define Guerrero's importance to the Angels, let's first look at his numbers from the last three seasons:

    Year AVE GPA HR SB Win Shares
    2001 .307 .311 34 37 23
    2002 .336 .336 39 40 29
    2003 .330 .338 25 9 18

    Well, it looks like Alex Rodriguez has some MVP competition within his own division now. Despite back problems last season, Guerrero managed to increase his on-base percentage, while not sacrificing a loss in slugging. His stolen bases were down, but that isn't supposed to be a problem next season. Here's a look at the Angels lineup last year, as compared to what it will be in 2004:

    2003 Lineup 2004 Lineup
    C- Molina C- Molina
    1B- Spezio 1B- Erstad
    2B- Kennedy 2B- Kennedy
    SS- Eckstein SS- Eckstein
    3B- Glaus 3B- Glaus
    LF- Anderson LF- Guillen
    CF- Erstad CF- Anderson
    RF- Salmon RF- Guerrero
    DH- Fullmer DH- Salmon

    Well, Erstad will move in from center, and Garrett Anderson will likely be moving over from left. Tim Salmon will be taking his hitting to DH full-time, assuming Guerrero stays off the DL. So in actuality, Guerrero and Guillen will be replacing what the Angels had at first base, and at whatever Salmon wasn't playing that day (DH or RF) in 2003. Last year, the Halos produced a .293/.362/.492 line from 1B, Jeff DaVanon hit .282/.360/.445 in right field duties, and Brad Fullmer hit .306/.387/.500 mostly as a DH. So, Guerrero and Guillen are being summoned to replace what is basically a .290/.365/.480 line?

    Last season, Jose Guillen hit .311/.359/.569 in what should be looked at as a career season. Upon moving to Oakland for much of the second half, Guillen struggled, hitting .265/.311/.459. Those are much more in line with his career numbers of .270/.315/.430. Jose will be moving to a more hitter-friendly ballpark than he was during that second half, but I think it's hard to predict the Guillen repeating his 2003 success. My guess is he produces a line of .280/.330/.460. That means the Angels are asking Vladimir Guerrero to have a .300/.400/.500 season to keep their offense the same as last year. So keep in mind next season, while reading Vlad's numbers in the box scores, every point above .400OBP and .500SLG is another run for the Angels.

    Early in the off season, Vlad turned down a 5-year, $75M offer to stay with the Montreal Expos. Little did he know then it would be his most lucrative offer, but I doubt he'll be missing the (un)friendly confines of Olympic Stadium next year. What surprised me most about researching for this story is that Omar Minaya, one of the most underrated GMs in the game, has actually managed to improved the Montreal offense.

    To prove that, let me show you the numbers Montreal produced from the four corner positions a year ago:

    Position (AB) AVE OBP SLG HR BB/K R/RBI
    1B (605) .274 .343 .448 22 61/129 80/100
    3B (604) .230 .298 .331 9 51/102 61/49
    LF (598) .261 .336 .426 19 65/148 78/84
    RF (592) .302 .390 .527 31 81/106 93/114

    All four of those positions will have different people in 2004, except left field. I included LF in the previous list because the team mistakenly gave more than 250AB to Ron Calloway and Jose Macias. You can bet that won't be happening again. So here are the four that will stand in those positions in 2004, prorated to 650PA apiece:

    Name AVE OBP SLG HR BB/K R/RBI
    Nick Johnson .284 .422 .472 22 112/91 96/75
    Tony Batista .235 .270 .393 25 27/99 74/96
    B. Wilkerson .268 .380 .464 21 96/167 84/83
    Carl Everett .287 .350 .510 30 57/91 100/99

    Assuming all these players stay healthy, the Expos team OBP from their corners should be about .355-.360, up from about .340 a year ago. Their slugging will be about .460, where it was .433. They are projected to hit about 17 more HR, walk 34 more times, and strike out less. It's also very easy to foresee Johnson and Wilkerson improving from last year, and I don't think Batista can get much worse. By my projections, the Expos should have around 750R next season, where they only had 711 a year ago. Who would have thought that Omar Minaya would be happy that Vlad said "no"?

    Two people that aren't happy about Vlad's recent decision are Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan, the two-headed GM combo that run the Orioles. I have criticized their hot and heavy pursuit for Vlad quite often this off season, pointing to their lack of pitching as my prime reasoning. The question now is, did they assume on Vlad so much that they left right field wide open?

    Not really. For now, Jay Gibbons will remain in right field, while Rafael Palmiero plays first base. B.J. Surhoff, Jack Cust, Marty Cordova, and David Segui could slug it out for the DH spot. The team has been associated with Pudge Rodriguez in the past, but I don't see Pudge going anywhere but Los Angeles at this point. My take would be to not spend one more dollar on offense, as pitching should be their central concern.

    Here is a list of the pitchers on the Orioles 40-man roster who have experience starting, along with their number of games started (in descending order):

    Omar Daal- 164
    Rodrigo Lopez- 60
    Kurt Ainworth-15
    Buddy Groom- 15
    John Stephens- 11
    Eric DuBose- 10
    John Parrish- 9
    Rick Bauer- 7
    Matt Riley- 5
    Mike Dejean- 1

    Yes, you read that right. The Orioles currently have only two starters with more than fifty career starts, and those two have a combined career ERA of 4.61. Of this group, only Daal, Lopez, Ainsworth, DuBose, and Riley started games in 2004, which is the current rough outline for their rotation. While a lineup with Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez might top 800R scored, the aforementioned rotation would likely allow 800R. And yes, that would be .500 or worse for a team spending millions to make the playoffs. Beattie/Flanagan: spend your money on Maels or Maddux, not Pudge.

    >From the beginning, Guerrero was said to dislike New York, but the Mets push was almost enough for the 27-year-old right fielder. The Mets had a contract that would have paid more than $70M over five years, yet only about $30-35M was guaranteed. Mets fans around the Internet have been upset about the Mets wait on signing a right fielder, as Roger Cedeno is currently slated in at the position.

    The free agent market doesn't have a lot of outfielders left, with Raul Mondesi, Troy O'Leary, Marvin benard, and Karim Garcia, the names that are available. I've been saying Mondesi for awhile, and I still believe that is true. Jim Duquette passed on quite a few names in his pursuit of Vlad, and I guarantee Juan Gonzalez would have worked in New York. Duquette's tenure with the Mets hasn't started exceptionally, and Fred Wilpon's unwillingness to guarantee money cost them Guerrero.

    So where do the Mets go now? They could go and try to trade for Richard Hidalgo, while others say they'll recruit Tom Glavine's friend/ex-teammate Greg Maddux. I don't see a fit with him in New York, but the Mets will definitely have more money to offer than the Cubs.

    Finally, for the second straight winter, the Florida Marlins attempted to make a late bid and land a huge name All-Star. While a one-year, $10M offer worked for Pudge Rodriguez, Vlad turned down what was a $13M offer. The Marlins are said to want one more big name player, and are said to be turning their attentions to Greg Maddux and Jason Kendall.

    With the Orioles, Mets, and Cubs all hot on the trail of Maddux, there is virtually no chance of him winning his 300th game in Miami. The Marlins would have to come up with a huge offer to land Maddux, and I don't see it happening. But there wasn't a happier man in the world to hear the Jason Kendall to the Padres talks died yesterday than Larry Beinfest. It's likely the Marlins will go after Kendall now, offering Ramon Castro, and maybe someone like A.J. Burnett. The team has been hesitant to give Castro the catching reins for years, and 2004 doesn't appear to be any different.

    Vladimir Guerrero was passed on for so long, it comes as a small surprise that teams are negatively impacted by his departure to Anaheim. This proves that having only plan A in January is the worst plan one can have.

    WTNYJanuary 13, 2004
    What's left in the NL
    By Bryan Smith

    Atlanta Braves

    John Scheurholtz keeps making nothing out of nothing, and I keep forecasting his demise. I will do the same in 2004, but I'm sure the Braves will surprise me. Offensively, the team is week with Estrada, LaRoche, and DeRosa all demanding 500AB. They could break out, but if not, yikes. The Braves could add an infield bench player, but besides that, they look finished.

    The rotation is all finished, even if it's not jaw-dropping. I'm a big fan of John Thomson in 2004, so write that down. Leo Mazzone and Bobby Cox are going to go with some interesting bullpen names, giving the huge AA combo of Alfonseca and Almanza a lot of innings. Jaret Wright, Will Cunnane, Kevin Gryboski and Jung Bong will all help complement John Smoltz. The Braves don't have much to do this offseason, but I will still be predicting them below first place...again.

    Florida Marlins

    Fresh of a World Championship, the Marlins have gone in a odd direction. They acquired Hee Seop Choi, and decided to give Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Conine the outfield corner spots. The catcher will be Ramon Castro, not example always being compared to Pudge. The team has Redmond, Mordecai, and Banks for their bench, but still could use replacements for Andy Fox and Todd Hollandsworth.

    The rotation should be pretty good, but until A.J. Burnett comes back, Michael Tejera is plugged in the fifth hole. There have been Greg Maddux rumors, but a flyball pitcher like Rick Reed might just work here. The bullpen will have Benitz, Fox, Neu, and Tim Spooneybarger, for sure. Tommy Phelps and Tejera figure to get jobs as well, and Blaine Neal could land a spot.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    The Phillies are the favorites to win the AL East, and they are all finished this offseason. Yesterday's signing of Doug Glanville fills their bench with Pratt, Wooten, Polanco, Perez, Ledee, and Glanville. And for all those who don't think the bullpen is finished, I imagine it will be Wagner-Worrell-Cormier at the end, with Roberto Hernandez and Amaury Telemaco getting some middle innings. The team may want a different LOOGY than Victor Alvarez, leaving Ed Wade one more job.

    Montreal Expos

    In a lot of ways, Omar Minaya is hog-tied. But he must put a decent 25-man roster on the field, and has a chance at besting the New York Mets, again. They really only need a backup catcher on offense, as Ron Calloway, Juan Rivera, Henry Mateo, and Jamey Carroll cover the other eight positions. Brian Schneider has no back-up, so signing a leftie killer might be a good idea.

    The pitching staff is finished, as the team will use Livan, Day, Armas, Ohka, and Vargas in their rotation. Seung Song and Josh Karp will be ready relatively quickly. The bullpen currently has Luis Ayala, Chad Cordero, Rocky Biddle, Joey Eischen, Randy Choate, Dan Smith, and T.J. Tucker. Does that need upgrading? Probably not.

    Who would have guessed the Expos would just need a backup C on January 13?

    New York Mets

    First and foremost, they need a right fielder. They need one bad. Right now, the only two real options are Raul Mondesi and Jay Payton. Ouch. A one-year deal would be best here, as Magglio Ordonez is an attractive candidate in a year's time. Besides that, I don't see Jim Duquette making another move to help this offense.

    There is talk that the team wants to send Jeremy Griffiths and Aaron Heilman to AAA, so they will sign a pitcher before Spring Training. They will likely compete with the Orioles for Greg Maddux, and drive that price up considerably. The bullpen should be finished, and Art Howe will be sorting a lot in Spring Training.

    Chicago Cubs

    If Jim Hendry wants to be finished, he can be. Otherwise, there is still room for a fifth starter, and a sixth right-handed middle reliever. But like I said, they already have more than 25 guys.

    Houston Astros

    I'll detail the Clemens signing on Friday, but with that money committed, I don't think Drayton McLane can afford to do anything else. They now have enough pitchers to fill a bullpen and a rotation, and had the people to make a bench. It's all over for the Astros.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Well, there will be decisions to be had in St. Louie. For instance, do they put John Gall at first base and keep Pujols in left? Do they sign anyone besides Marlon Anderson and Bo Hart for second? I like the idea of Gall, but I'm not so high on Anderson. Signing Cuban defector Yobal Duenas would be an interesting move, but after the So Taguchi disaster, I don't even know if Walt Jocketty will make a call.

    The Cardinals current rotation has Morris, Williams, Suppan, Haren, and Carpenter, and that is probably enough. Just in case, they also have Jason Marquis waiting in the wings. While I wouldn't have reccomended the signing of Julian Tavarez, it did give them a complete bullpen. Isringhausen, Tavarez, Kline, Eldred, King, Calero, and Marquis. Wow, what an improvement from a year ago.

    Cincy Reds

    Can I have a team to skip? Please? I really don't like this team, and probably never will. Their bench looks filled with Corky Miller, Juan Castro, Ray Olmedo, Wil Mo Pena, Ryan Freel, and some other available options in their minor leagues.

    Wow, what a bad rotation. There will be Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, and Cory Lidle. Aaron Harang, Jose Acevedo, Josh Hall, and Brandon Claussen will battle for the last spot. They might sign one more fringe starter, but they have enough bullpen arms to fill that area.

    Pittsburgh Pirates

    Jason Kendall should be gone in days, and the Pirates lineup will have Cirillo at third and Stynes at second. If they end up signing Randall Simon, and I think they will, it will be a disastrous offseason. It's time to hand some jobs to youngsters, to start re-building. Maybe Dave Littlefield isn't fit for this job after all.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    I really think the Brewers should trade Junior Spivey to clear a space for Keith Ginter, but I don't think Doug Melvin reads this blog. Both the White Sox and Cardinals would be interested, and would give fair value back. Could they get Neal Cotts in a deal for Spivey? If so, I see no reason why they wouldn't jump on that. The Brewers have a few bench spots to fill, so they might be picking up the leftovers relatively soon.

    No one can say what the Brew Crew will do with their pitching staff, besides the fact that Ben Sheets and Doug Davis will get spots. I would add one more starter, simply because the Brewers don't really have enough guys fighting for spots. And yes, Matt Kinney really does suck. The end of the season really proved they could have a good bullpen, and they are filled in that area. Picking up the scraps, and waiting for the kids is Doug Melvin's job during the upcoming seasons.

    San Francisco Giants

    Unfortunately my prediction for Greg Maddux didn't work out, as Brian Sabean decided to go for the cheaper, and worse version, Brett Tomko. That's a great rotation, and the team's bullpen looks to be finished as well. In fact, Brian Sabean has left Felipe Alou with a lot of options, and I don't think the Giants will spend another dollar this offseason.

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    I'll never understand Steve Sparks and Shane Reynolds, but I don't have to. If those two combine with Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, and Elmer Dessens, I'll be making fun of this team. At least give one or two pitchers under 25 a chance. I mean, they don't have much of a chance in 2004, so they might as well be developing players. The bullpen has enough, and I like Valverde and Matt Mantei finishing ganes.

    On offense, all the Diamondbacks need are backups in the outfield. They have just Bautista, Finley, and Gonzalez at this point, so adding another one of two would be a good idea.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    My guess? They sign Pudge, but their offense is still terrible, as they'll have a Ventura/Loduca platoon at first, Encarnacion in left, and one of the worst middles in the game. It doesn't matter at this point, the ownership situation has screwed them. They will be bad in 2004, but I remain bullish on the Dodgers in the long run, notably in 2006. They'll get back to the top, it's just going to take some time.

    Colorado Rockies

    After my past articles on the Rockies, there's no way I'm going here.

    San Diego Padres

    I would highly recommend that the team signs Jay Payton, and I would personally find that to be more important than getting Kendall, although he's a great player. The Padres lineup is going to be fantastic, giving Khalil Greene the surroundings he'll need to win Rookie of the Year. Believe me, it's very possible.

    That's all I can tonight folks, I'll be back on Vlad tomorrow.

    WTNYJanuary 13, 2004
    What's left in the NL
    By Bryan Smith

    Today I'll get right into it, here's what the National league needs to work on the rest of the offseason, which will help us determine where the remaining free agents will land.

    Atlanta Braves

    John Scheurholtz keeps making nothing out of nothing, and I keep forecasting his demise. I will do the same in 2004, but I'm sure the Braves will surprise me. Offensively, the team is week with Estrada, LaRoche, and DeRosa all demanding 500AB. They could break out, but if not, yikes. The Braves could add an infield bench player, but besides that, they look finished.

    The rotation is all finished, even if it's not jaw-dropping. I'm a big fan of John Thomson in 2004, so write that down. Leo Mazzone and Bobby Cox are going to go with some interesting bullpen names, giving the huge AA combo of Alfonseca and Almanza a lot of innings. Jaret Wright, Will Cunnane, Kevin Gryboski and Jung Bong will all help complement John Smoltz. The Braves don't have much to do this offseason, but I will still be predicting them below first place...again.

    Florida Marlins

    Fresh of a World Championship, the Marlins have gone in a odd direction. They acquired Hee Seop Choi, and decided to give Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Conine the outfield corner spots. The catcher will be Ramon Castro, not example always being compared to Pudge. The team has Redmond, Mordecai, and Banks for their bench, but still could use replacements for Andy Fox and Todd Hollandsworth.

    The rotation should be pretty good, but until A.J. Burnett comes back, Michael Tejera is plugged in the fifth hole. There have been Greg Maddux rumors, but a flyball pitcher like Rick Reed might just work here. The bullpen will have Benitz, Fox, Neu, and Tim Spooneybarger, for sure. Tommy Phelps and Tejera figure to get jobs as well, and Blaine Neal could land a spot.

    Philadelphia Phillies

    The Phillies are the favorites to win the AL East, and they are all finished this offseason. Yesterday's signing of Doug Glanville fills their bench with Pratt, Wooten, Polanco, Perez, Ledee, and Glanville. And for all those who don't think the bullpen is finished, I imagine it will be Wagner-Worrell-Cormier at the end, with Roberto Hernandez and Amaury Telemaco getting some middle innings. The team may want a different LOOGY than Victor Alvarez, leaving Ed Wade one more job.

    Montreal Expos

    In a lot of ways, Omar Minaya is hog-tied. But he must put a decent 25-man roster on the field, and has a chance at besting the New York Mets, again. They really only need a backup catcher on offense, as Ron Calloway, Juan Rivera, Henry Mateo, and Jamey Carroll cover the other eight positions. Brian Schneider has no back-up, so signing a leftie killer might be a good idea.

    The pitching staff is finished, as the team will use Livan, Day, Armas, Ohka, and Vargas in their rotation. Seung Song and Josh Karp will be ready relatively quickly. The bullpen currently has Luis Ayala, Chad Cordero, Rocky Biddle, Joey Eischen, Randy Choate, Dan Smith, and T.J. Tucker. Does that need upgrading? Probably not.

    Who would have guessed the Expos would just need a backup C on January 13?

    New York Mets

    First and foremost, they need a right fielder. They need one bad. Right now, the only two real options are Raul Mondesi and Jay Payton. Ouch. A one-year deal would be best here, as Magglio Ordonez is an attractive candidate in a year's time. Besides that, I don't see Jim Duquette making another move to help this offense.

    There is talk that the team wants to send Jeremy Griffiths and Aaron Heilman to AAA, so they will sign a pitcher before Spring Training. They will likely compete with the Orioles for Greg Maddux, and drive that price up considerably. The bullpen should be finished, and Art Howe will be sorting a lot in Spring Training.

    Chicago Cubs

    If Jim Hendry wants to be finished, he can be. Otherwise, there is still room for a fifth starter, and a sixth right-handed middle reliever. But like I said, they already have more than 25 guys.

    Houston Astros

    I'll detail the Clemens signing on Friday, but with that money committed, I don't think Drayton McLane can afford to do anything else. They now have enough pitchers to fill a bullpen and a rotation, and had the people to make a bench. It's all over for the Astros.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Well, there will be decisions to be had in St. Louie. For instance, do they put John Gall at first base and keep Pujols in left? Do they sign anyone besides Marlon Anderson and Bo Hart for second? I like the idea of Gall, but I'm not so high on Anderson. Signing Cuban defector Yobal Duenas would be an interesting move, but after the So Taguchi disaster, I don't even know if Walt Jocketty will make a call.

    The Cardinals current rotation has Morris, Williams, Suppan, Haren, and Carpenter, and that is probably enough. Just in case, they also have Jason Marquis waiting in the wings. While I wouldn't have reccomended the signing of Julian Tavarez, it did give them a complete bullpen. Isringhausen, Tavarez, Kline, Eldred, King, Calero, and Marquis. Wow, what an improvement from a year ago.

    Cincy Reds

    Can I have a team to skip? Please? I really don't like this team, and probably never will. Their bench looks filled with Corky Miller, Juan Castro, Ray Olmedo, Wil Mo Pena, Ryan Freel, and some other available options in their minor leagues.

    Wow, what a bad rotation. There will be Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, and Cory Lidle. Aaron Harang, Jose Acevedo, Josh Hall, and Brandon Claussen will battle for the last spot. They might sign one more fringe starter, but they have enough bullpen arms to fill that area.

    Pittsburgh Pirates

    Jason Kendall should be gone in days, and the Pirates lineup will have Cirillo at third and Stynes at second. If they end up signing Randall Simon, and I think they will, it will be a disastrous offseason. It's time to hand some jobs to youngsters, to start re-building. Maybe Dave Littlefield isn't fit for this job after all.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    I really think the Brewers should trade Junior Spivey to clear a space for Keith Ginter, but I don't think Doug Melvin reads this blog. Both the White Sox and Cardinals would be interested, and would give fair value back. Could they get Neal Cotts in a deal for Spivey? If so, I see no reason why they wouldn't jump on that. The Brewers have a few bench spots to fill, so they might be picking up the leftovers relatively soon.

    No one can say what the Brew Crew will do with their pitching staff, besides the fact that Ben Sheets and Doug Davis will get spots. I would add one more starter, simply because the Brewers don't really have enough guys fighting for spots. And yes, Matt Kinney really does suck. The end of the season really proved they could have a good bullpen, and they are filled in that area. Picking up the scraps, and waiting for the kids is Doug Melvin's job during the upcoming seasons.

    San Francisco Giants

    Unfortunately my prediction for Greg Maddux didn't work out, as Brian Sabean decided to go for the cheaper, and worse version, Brett Tomko. That's a great rotation, and the team's bullpen looks to be finished as well. In fact, Brian Sabean has left Felipe Alou with a lot of options, and I don't think the Giants will spend another dollar this offseason.

    Arizona Diamondbacks

    I'll never understand Steve Sparks and Shane Reynolds, but I don't have to. If those two combine with Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, and Elmer Dessens, I'll be making fun of this team. At least give one or two pitchers under 25 a chance. I mean, they don't have much of a chance in 2004, so they might as well be developing players. The bullpen has enough, and I like Valverde and Matt Mantei finishing ganes.

    On offense, all the Diamondbacks need are backups in the outfield. They have just Bautista, Finley, and Gonzalez at this point, so adding another one of two would be a good idea.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    My guess? They sign Pudge, but their offense is still terrible, as they'll have a Ventura/Loduca platoon at first, Encarnacion in left, and one of the worst middles in the game. It doesn't matter at this point, the ownership situation has screwed them. They will be bad in 2004, but I remain bullish on the Dodgers in the long run, notably in 2006. They'll get back to the top, it's just going to take some time.

    Colorado Rockies

    After my past articles on the Rockies, there's no way I'm going here.

    San Diego Padres

    I would highly recommend that the team signs Jay Payton, and I would personally find that to be more important than getting Kendall, although he's a great player. The Padres lineup is going to be fantastic, giving Khalil Greene the surroundings he'll need to win Rookie of the Year. Believe me, it's very possible.

    That's all I can tonight folks, I'll be back on Vlad tomorrow.

    WTNYJanuary 12, 2004
    A Preview and Review
    By Bryan Smith

    Didn't make the weekend post I had hoped to, got a little busy. For all those who are thinking about going to see Blue Man Group, you have my full support. Good stuff around the Internet, Bill James' assistant Matthew Namee had some good work for Aaron Gleeman, Rich Lederer had a very nice interview of Joe Sheehan, and Will Carroll attempting to make headline news again. Believe me, Clemens is as overrated as Pettite.

    To give a little overview of the week, I'll review what I said on Friday today, I'll detail the National League tomorrow, Wednesday will be devoted to the newest Halo, and Thursday we'll look at where the free agents should be going. Exciting times ahead on Wait 'Til Next Year...

    On Friday I spent a long time detailing what American League teams have left, and today I'll review quickly what I said...

    Oakland: RH reliever
    Seattle: Trade Davis and Meche
    Anaheim: Well, it was 1B, now it's make fun of the Mariners
    Texas: One (or 2) starter(s) and one RH reliever

    Minnesota: Trade Jacque Jones, one SP, one RH reliever
    Chicago: SP and 2B
    Kansas City: Sit around
    Cleveland: Trade Ludwick or Escobar (Lawton?) for SP
    Detroit: Apply to become part of International League and worry about rotation

    Yankees: George wants one more SP
    Boston: Back end of bullpen
    Toronto: All finished
    Baltimore: RF and SP, SP, SP!
    Tampa Bay: Likely finished, maybe one bench spot

    Sorry folks, that's all I got today, I'll have another 2500+ words tomorrow...

    WTNYJanuary 09, 2004
    The AL
    By Bryan Smith

    Not a lot going on in the baseball world, but I think in a week's time the Orioles will have contracts done to Vladimir Guerrero, Rafael Palmiero, and B.J. Surhoff. I think the team would be much better suited to spend Palmiero's money towards starters, but if Sidney Ponson ends up with them, my argument is void.

    For the weekend, I'm going to post what I consider to be very important information: what each team has left to do this off season. It has been an interesting couple months in the very least, and a sign of the path that baseball is headed down.

    Oakland Athletics

    Billy Beane has a starting lineup in place, and it should definitely be an improvement over the group he fielded a year ago. An outfield of Kielty, Kotsay, and Dye could improve in big ways, and Bobby Crosby will be a top candidate for Rookie of the Year. The team easily has enough players to make a bench, and my guess is that Adam Melhuse, Eric Byrnes, Billy McMillon, Frank Menechino, and Marco Scutaro will get spots.

    The A's will have a great pitching staff again in 2004, this time with Mark Redman as their fourth starter. Rich Harden is the best fifth starter in baseball, and Justin Duchscherer (PCL Pitcher of the Year) is waiting in the wings. The bullpen is really the only thing that needs a little tweaking. So far, the A's have a nice start in Arthur Rhodes, Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, and Chris Hammond. Jim Mecir, Chad Harville, and Duchscherer will compete for spots. In my mind, the team needs to add one more right-handed reliever to make a good 'pen, and is a long way from matching what they did a year ago.

    Seattle Mariners

    Fans are not happy with how the off season has gone in Seattle, and Bill Bavasi is quickly becoming one of the worse GMs in the game. The Guillen-Aurilia swap will happen anyday now, yielding Ramon Santiago for the M's. They would then have a full lineup, with Raul Ibanez, Scott Spiezio, and Rich Aurilia replacing Mike Cameron, Jeff Cirillo, and Carlos Guillen. The bench is among the worst in baseball, with Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, Santiago, Willie Bloomquist, and Quinton McCracken all looking at spots. Ben Davis likely will be dealt, or he could push Gonzalez to Tacoma. I'm thinking the Mariners would be best suited to never pinch-hit next year, not a promising proposition for Bob Melvin.

    As for the rotation, the Mariners actually have one too many players at this point. Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro, and Freddy Garcia are all but guaranteed spots next season. It would be hard to deny Ryan Franklin, who had a 3.34 second half ERA, a spot as well. That leaves Gil Meche to the fifth hole, although there is one small problem. Rafael Soriano deserves a spot as much as anyone. He was the best reliever in baseball during the last two months, and is dominating in the winter league. Give him a spot, and trade Davis and Meche together.

    Eddie Guardado will be a big help in the bullpen, although they don't have the firepower they once had. Sasaki is getting worse every year, and can we honestly expect Hasegawa to match last season's performance? Julio Mateo might be their best reliever, although they won't see that. Kevin Jarvis is all but guaranteed the long relief spot, just because of the huge paycheck the Mariners are giving him. The last spot is up for grabs with in-house candidates J.J. Putz, Aaron Looper or Aaron Taylor likely to land the spot. Barring a Davis and/or Meche trade, that's all you'll see from the Mariners.

    Anaheim Angels

    The former World Champions are much improved, and will have a very potent rotation in 2004. Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar are the newest additions, and will be the first power pitchers the Angels have housed in awhile. Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz have spots, but they must drop their high HR/9 rates. World Series hero John Lackey should land the fifth slot, but expensive right-hander Aaron Sele at least gets a chance. If he doesn't win it, he'll likely be released, and the Angels will take the hit for his salary.

    As for the bullpen, the Angels strength will once again be in finishing games. The Donnelly-Rodriguez-Percival trio is unbeatable, likely the best 7-8-9 in the Majors. Scot Shields and Ben Weber are also very effective. The team usually doesn't use LOOGYs, so Derrick Turnbow and Kevin Gregg will battle for the sixth spot.

    Anaheim is one of the few teams without a completed lineup, as Bill Stonemann has yet to find Scott Spiezio's 1B replacement. Travis Lee has been a rumor for weeks, and I expect that deal to happen very soon. The bench currently has Jose Molina, Alfredo Amezaga, Jeff DaVanon, Chone Figgins, and Robb Quinlan should get a spot. That would leave the team with 24 players, possibly allowing Sele to make the team as a long reliever. All in all, Travis Lee is the only move I expect from the Angels.

    Texas Rangers

    While the Rangers lineup has questions, they already have enough players to fill all the necessary positions. At this point, we know that Einar Diaz will catch, and the infield will be Teixeira, Young, Rodriguez and Blalock. Brad Fullmer will act as DH, and Brian Jordan will have a corner spot. That leaves centerfield and another corner outfield spot, with David Delucci, Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Rusty Greer, and Ramon Nivar battling it out. Out of that group, Nix should land a spot, and if Nivar doesn't, he'll be returned to AAA. Eric Young may get a chance in center, but he is probably just middle infield insurance. Other bench players include Mike Lamb, Herbert Perry, and Gerald Laird.

    As with all Ranger teams, the questions are in the pitching staff. The Rangers have been ridiculously slow to sign pitching, pretty much guaranteeing another last place finish. Chan Ho Park will have a spot, but that's all that is guaranteed at this point. The current depth chart would have Joaquin Benoit, Colby Lewis, Juan Dominguez, and either R.A. Dickey or Ryan Drese. With that being said, I guarantee the Rangers will add at least one starter still, and they really should add 2.

    The bullpen is going to add a right-hander in the coming days, with rumors that a Turk Wendell contract is all but finished. Wendell will be used to set-up effective closer Francisco Cordero, who was dazzling a season ago. Jay Powell makes a lot of money, and was once effective as a middle reliever. Southpaws Ron Mahay, Brian Shouse, and Erasmo Ramirez all had their moments a year ago. I don't expect the Rangers to sign more than one right-handed reliever, although they probably should. Signing Maels Rodriguez should be their other plan of attack.

    Minnesota Twins

    Myself and Twins fans alike have been quick to bash Terry Ryan this offseason, who really made this club worse by not doing anything. It all starts in the rotation, where the Twins are yet to fill their five slots at this time. So far, Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse, and Grant Balfour look to have spots. If the competition goes as low as Carlos Pulido and Carlos Silva, just give this division to someone else. Signing a starter should be a priority for the Twins, or at least trading Jacque Jones for one.

    While the catcher position has no clear starter yet, the rest of the starting lineup is filled. The team has important decisions with rookies and outfielders, but have more than enough bats to fill a roster. The only weakness is up the middle, but it appears Augie Ojeda and Nick Punto are going to back up the Rivas and Guzman combo. Jacque Jones and Doug Mientkiewicz could get traded for pitching, and it would have minimal effect on the offense.

    A lot of people are questioning the Twins bullpen, but I believe they are one man away from being pretty effective. Ugueth Urbina is rumored to be heading there, and he is probably the last of the good relievers left on the market, it's essential for Ryan to act here. Joe Nathan and J.C. Romero are fairly good as set-up men, and I like Juan Rincon a lot in middle relief. Michael Nakamura are Carlos Silva should land spots, leaving the seventh spot to be a battle between Pulido and Aaron Fultz. Note to Terry Ryan: start working!

    Chicago White Sox

    While Ken Williams tried to improve the White Sox this offseason, he failed mercifully. The White Sox are bad right now, very bad. Esteban Loaiza and Mark Buerhle have a lot of pressure at the top of the rotation, and Jon Garland needs to take a big step forward. After that the Sox rotation is eerily weak, with Scott Schoenweis, Dan Wright, and Neal Cotts among those battling for spots. The team has shown interest in Sidney Ponson, and I think they will likely end up signing him.

    The bullpen will not be as strong as it was last season, as I don't see Cliff Politte matching the performance that Tom Gordon had last year. Damaso Marte and Billy Koch will battle for closer duties, and Kelly Wunsch is one of the league's better LOOGYs. Dan Wright and Scott Schoenweis could fill roles in the bullpen, but I think the White Sox should consider adding one more right-handed middle reliever.

    Not many changes in the hitting department, although part-time players Robbie Alomar and Carl Everett are long gone. In their places, the team will be using Willie Harris and Aaron Rowand, respectively. If Harris struggles, Juan Uribe could be forced into the starting lineup. I also think the club will put in a phone call to Cuban defector, Yobal Duenas. The team has a few bench positions in must fill, as Sandy Alomar, Jamie Burke, Ross Gload and Uribe are the only ones currently occupying those positions. The White Sox have a lot of work to do, but I'm not sure if Ken Williams realizes this.

    Kansas City Royals

    Allan Baird has done a fantastic job this offseason, and he can now go to rest. With the recently announced Juan Gonzalez signing, I imagine the Royals are done for the offseason. The team has a lot of options, and will let David DeJesus get reps at AAA before a likely midseason call-up. The bench will have Kelly Stinnett, Ken Harvey, Tony Graffanino, Dee Brown and Rich Thompson.

    The rotation is a little weak, but they make up for that with a fantastic bullpen. Curt Leskanic, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike MacDougal, Scott Sullivan, Jason Grimsley, and D.J. Carrasco are the top six for the bullpen, and the team will likely try Joey Dawley as the long relief man. The Royals are the favorites to win the AL Central, and can now sit on that title until February.

    Cleveland Indians

    Well, what can Mark Shapiro do? The Indians aren't going to be very good in 2004, but it's a waiting game in Cleveland. Shapiro has built this team to the best of his abilities, but they still come up lacking. With limited resources, sometimes all you can do is cry, "uncle." The lineup is their best asset, and they'll have a bench with Josh Bard, Ben Broussard, John McDonald, Ricky Gutierrez, and Ryan Ludwick. I'm not so sure on the choice of Ronnie Belliard at second base though.

    Also somewhat respectable will be a bullpen filled with players you've never heard of. David Riske has proven to be reliable for a couple of years now, and it looks like the team will hand him the reins as closer. Jose Jimenez and Bob Wickman will serve as veteran set-up men, and I'm big on Jimenez bouncing back after some bad years in Coors. Rafael Betancourt, Scott Stewart, and Jack Cressend all bring strengths to the table, and with the proper managing, Eric Wedge could have a top 10 bullpen.

    It's the rotation that I worry about. C.C. Sabathia proved he could be an ace, and Cliff Lee showed some very nice things in his short stine. Jake Westbrook was very hot and cold in Cleveland, but needs to improve his K/BB rate (58/56) to take it to the next level. Jason Stanford and Chad Durbin are penciled into the final two spots, but Jimenez and Jason Bere could steal those spots. Also, expect Jeremy Guthrie to demand a spot during the season. The Indians should improve each year as they find out a little more about this team, but Cleveland is going to need patience for the next three years.

    Detroit Tigers

    Well, now Dambrowski has some names that everyone has heard of. Their lineup:

    C- Brandon Inge
    1B- Carlos Pena
    2B- Fernando Vina
    SS- Carlos Guillen
    3B- Eric Munson
    LF- Rondell White
    CF- Alex Sanchez
    RF- Bobby Higginson/Cody Ross
    DH- Dmitri Young

    It's not a fabulous lineup, but I don't think they'll come last in the Majors in runs scored either. The bench is a little weak right now, with Mike Diefelice, Chris Shelton, Omar Infante, Dean Palmer, and Craig Monroe penciled in. The bullpen won't be too bad if Alan Trammell pushed the right buttons, as right-handers Fernando Rodney, Franklyn German, Matt Anderson, Al Levine, and Danny Patterson all have potential. Jamie Walker is a good LOOGY, and Chris Spurling had a nice rookie season.

    Of all things, it's the rotation that frightens me the most. Jason Johnson, Mike Maroth, and Jeremy Bonderman sit atop what should be a pretty bad group. The last two spots will be a combination of Wil Ledezma, Gary Knotts, Nate Cornejo, and Nate Robertson. Yes, the Tigers are destined for last place once again. But now, they won't lose 119 games!

    New York Yankees

    Well, is the Boss ever really done? No, he'll always be looking for a signing to put his team a leg up, and this time his sights are on Maels Rodriguez. Apparently the thought of Jon Lieber serving as his fifth starter is hideous, and Steinbrenner is intent on landing another good arm for the rotation. The bullpen looks to be good, with Rivera, Gordon, Quantrill, Karsay, Heredia, and Gabe White handling the duties. Lieber should serve as the long man, similar to the role Jose Contreras started in last season.

    While the Yankees don't have a great bench, they're likely finished with it. John Flaherty, Enrique Wilson, Miguel Cairo, Ruben Sierra, and Tony Clark will be the options Joe Torre has for pinch-hitting this season. I'm thinking he is going to stick with his starters this year, so once again, depth is a nervous issue with this team.

    Boston Red Sox

    Like George, Theo is always looking for a way to outdo his opponents, although there aren't many more moves left in this chess match. The only thing I can see Theo doing is trading Scott Williamson, but at this point, I think the team would be smartest to hang onto him. Foulke, Timilin, Williamson, Embree, and Bronson Arroyo is a nice group, and it appears the team is thinking of having Mark Malaska and either Ramiro Mendoza or Colter Bean fill their last spot. The rotation is fill with Pedro, Schilling, Wakefield, Lowe and Kim, so I really don't understand their interest in Maels.

    Offensively, the team is finished. They will have a four man bench, with Doug Mirabelli, Pokey Reese, Gabe Kapler and Brian Daubach. They can do that with the versatility that Mark Bellhorn, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, and Trot Nixon all bring to the table. Expect a decline in offensive production next year, but not significant enough to take them out of this race.

    Toronto Blue Jays

    With the two recent signings of Terry Adams and Chris Gomez, J.P. Riccardi is all done this offseason. Instead of beating around the bush, here are your 2004 Toronto Blue Jays:

    Lineup: Greg Myers, Carlos Delgado, Orlando Hudson, Chris Woodward, Eric Hinske, Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells, Reed Johnson

    Bench: Kevin Cash, Dave Berg, Howie Clark, Chris Gomez, Chad Hermansen

    Rotation: Roy Halladay, Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly, Pat Hentgen, Josh Towers

    Bullpen: Terry Adams, Kerry Ligtenberg, Justin Speier, Aquilino Lopez, Valerio De Los Santos, Jayson Durocher

    Baltimore Orioles

    While the Orioles will surely get a lot of credit for their recent and upcoming signings, this is hardly a finished product. While an offense with Lopez, Palmiero, Hairston, Tejada, Mora, Bigbie, Matos, Guerrero, and Gibbons is more than appealing, they need pitching. The bench is also a little weak, with Geronimo Gil, Brian Roberts, B.J. Surhoff, Marty Cordova, and David Segui likely to get bench roles.

    The starting rotation is ghastly at this point, with Rodrigo Lopez, Omar Daal, Kurt Ainsworth, Matt Riley, and Eric DuBose currently on the depth chart. Sidney Ponson is on their radar, but the team is more focused on finishing the Palmiero and Guerrero negotiations. If they miss him, then the Orioles are a .500 team at best. The bullpen has Jorge Julio, Mike Dejean, Willis Roberts, Buddy Groom, B.J. Ryan, and Rick Bauer, hardly an intimidating group. Maybe the plan was to focus on offense this year, and then worry about pitching, but if so, no one told me.

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Chuck LaMar has been more proactive in this off season than he has in years, and I've come up with two theories behind that. Either Lou Piniella has instilled this new desire in LaMar to win, or he smells his days as GM shrinking. Either way, LaMar used limited resources to make the Devil Rays better this offseason, and while his acquisitions haven't been the best players, the fact that he's trying is a good start.

    Offensively, the Devil Rays should be fine. The team signed Robert Fick today, and Fernando Tatis should be signed too as well. That would give Piniella a bench of Brook Fordyce, Geoff Blum, Fuck, Eduardo Perez, and either Antonio Perez or Damian Rolls. Jose Cruz is going to do very nice things during his stay, and I can't compliment the team enough for signing Aubrey Huff to a three year, $14.7M extension.

    Lou has some choices to make for the starting rotation, but he sure has his options. I think Jeremi Gonzalez, Victor Zambrano, and Mark Hendrickson are all but locks to land the job. That leaves John Halama, Paul Abbott, Rob Bell, Chad Gaudin, Jon Switzer, Doug Waechter, Jorge Sosa, and Dewon Brazelton to wrestle for the last two spots. Yes, you read that right, the Devil Rays will have an eight-man competition for two spots.

    The bullpen will be better, as Danys Baez and Trever Miller bring some experienced arms into Pinella's grasp. Lance Carter is close to being a very good reliever, and I'm also a big fan of Travis Harper and Jesus Colome. The last one or two spots will go to one of the aforementioned pitchers, so it could be a good bullpen. In conclusion, the Devil Rays are going to finish last in 2004, but it will be their best team ever. This club is making strides, and it won't be long until they finish on the right side of 81.

    Wow, 3,277 words later, I'm finished with the American League. I'll write a quick recap of what I said for these teams over the weekend, have another long in-depth report on the National League for Monday, and then analyze what this means for free agents on Tuesday. Stay tuned, and have a good weekend.

    WTNYJanuary 08, 2004
    Rocky Times (part 2) and more
    By Bryan Smith

    To bring some closure to yesterday's piece, the reason I argued against the many offensive signings the Colorado Rockies have made thus far is money. The team needs to try and sign young players for their starting rotation, and see what kind of player will work here. Instead of Sidney Ponson, I'm hearing rumors of Kenny Rogers and Pedro Astacio.

    Right now, the Rockies could go to Spring Training with five starters. Jason Jennings, two years removed from his Rookie of the Year trophy, is looking to revert back to 2002 form. To do so, he'll need substantial improvement on his 119/88 K/BB, and will need to work on his starts on the road. In 2003, Jennings home ERA was 4.64, while he had a 5.38ERA while on the road. Another three year vet the Rockies are depending on is Joe Kennedy, whom Dan O'Dowd acquired for Justin Speier. Kennedy has gotten slowly worse his whole career, and I can't see how his career 0.96 GB/FB ratio is appealing for Rockies brass. Kennedy did pitch well as a reliever, and may be the first to be booted from the rotation.

    I imagine the Rockies will be hoping a pair of top prospects also land starting spots, those players being Aaron Cook and Chin-Hui Tsao. Cook was Baseball America's 2002 top Rockie prospect, even likening the young right-hander to Kevin Brown. While Cook maintained a solid GB/FB ratio, he struggled with a 6.49ERA at home. My guess is that the improved infield defense should help his numbers, but Cook needs to have a K/BB of at least one next year. As for Tsao, he is the 2003 top Rockie prospect, and is a top 50 Major League prospect after my first draft. He was great last season in AA, going 11-4 with a 2.36ERA, allowing 88 hits in 113.1IP, while maintaining a 125/26 K/BB. Tsao struggled in the Majors, battling control problems, as well as giving up 11 homers in 43.1 innings. Most of those came on the road, but I imagine he'll have troubles with Coors this season. He'll be the Rockies first homegrown power pitcher, so his performance should dictate what the Rockies do in the future.

    In the last spot, the Rockies have Denny Neagle penciled in very lightly. Neagle only had seven appearances in 2003, starting late and ending early. He was disastrous in those 35 innings, and has a 5.57ERA in the last three seasons. It seems like Coors has effected southpaws Mike Hampton and Neagle more than anything, whether that is a sign or not, I'm not sure. Others contending for a rotation slot will be Scott Elarton, Adam Bernero, and Cory Vance. Also, expect the Rockies to make at least one veteran signing, pushing either Kennedy or Neagle to the bullpen, or possibly Tsao to AAA.

    The bullpen looks to be the one area the Rockies may have success in during 2004. Shawn Chacon, a Rockie all-star a year ago, is moving to the closer spot, as the Rockies are looking to take better care of his arm. I still think he'll end up hurt, but if not, he could be a mean closer. The team also had considerable success with lefties Brian Fuentes and Javier Lopez a year ago, as well as side-armer Steve Reed. Of those brought in this offseason, Jeff Tam, Travis Driskill, and Allan Simpson have the best chances to nag a bullpen spot. I also think Bernero will end up here, as he didn't start a game after coming from Detroit a year ago.

    To conclude, Dan O'Dowd isn't pushing the right buttons in Colorado. The team has a good farm system, and a good foundation in the Major Leagues, but never wins. It seems that every year there is a significant change to the roster, but I believe ownership should think first to changing the front office.

    I received an e-mail today asking about my thoughts on Robbie Alomar, so I wanted to post them here. Like the Rockies, I think Arizona could have used the money for this signing better in the starting department. Alomar's skills are diminishing at a substantial rate, and it's hard to believe he only hit five home runs a year ago. Robbie is simply disastrous against left-handed pitching, yet managers Art Howe and Jerry Manuel allowed him to have 148 at-bats against southpaws during 2003, which led to a .189 batting average. Against right-handers he was .285/.364/.378, which means he has a little value. But what about Matt Kata? Didn't the D-Backs like him enough to deal Junior Spivey?

    In all honesty, Alomar is bridging the gap until heralded prospect Scott Hairston makes the Major Leagues. Alomar can't hit left-handers, has no power, little speed, and overrated defense. For their $1M, the Diamondbacks get a player who isn't exactly a clubhouse leader, but also get the team name written on Alomar's future Hall of Fame plaque. I would never have guessed Arizona to make this signing, but there really is little upside here. Look for Robbie to hit .270/.340/.380 in what will/should be his final Major League season.

    While I've touched on Juan Gonzalez in past articles, I've never gone into detail on why the Royals made such a good signing. Last season, Juan Gone hit .294/.329/.572 with the Rangers, and while some will argue his power numbers were helped in Arlington, Kansas City is hardly a pitcher's park. Sure, Gonzalez might not be capable of a .350 OBP ever again in his career, but the Royals have Matt Stairs for that department. In Igor, the Royals get an improvement over Raul Ibanez, for cheaper (and they got a draft pick from Seattle!) than Ibanez cost the Mariners. Gonzalez will be helped from playing only left field in Kauffman Stadium, but is hardly a sure-fire bet to stay healthy. But remember, if Igor goes down, Matt Stairs could play left, allowing Ken Harvey more time, or David DeJesus could get the call from AAA. Yes, Allan Baird is finally starting to get it.

    I love reporting that team's are finished assembling their roster, and yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays did just that. J.P. Riccardi signed Terry Adams and Chris Gomez, while designating Pete Walker for assignment and waiving Tom Wilson. Adams' ERA was deceiving a year ago, his peripherals weren't quite as strong as a 2.65ERA would indicate. Don't get me wrong, I'd love having Adams in middle relief, I just wouldn't expect an ERA below 3.25 again. As for Gomez, even Rey Ordonez may have been the better choice, but I don't anticipate he'll be seeing too much time anyway.

    OK, here is the Blue Jays roster as I see it...

    Starting Lineup
    1. Reed Johnson- RF
    2. Frank Catalanotto- LF
    3. Vernon Wells- CF
    4. Carlos Delgado- 1B
    5. Eric Hinske- 3B
    6. Josh Phelps- DH
    7. Greg Myers- C
    8. Orlando Hudson- 2B
    9. Chris Woodward- SS

    Bench: Kevin Cash, Dave Berg, Howie Clark, Chris Gomez, Chad Hermensen

    Starting Rotation
    1. Roy Halladay
    2. Miguel Batista
    3. Ted Lilly
    4. Pat Hentgen
    5. Josh Towers

    Bullpen
    - Terry Adams
    - Aquilino Lopez
    - Justin Speier
    - Kerry Ligtenberg
    - Valerio De Los Santos
    - Jayson Durocher

    Well, that's it for today. On the Vladimir Guerrero front, I'm now hearing four teams, although just the Mets and Orioles hold significant interest. The Marlins and Dodgers also have put in calls to Guerrero's agent. As for Greg Maddux, I will maintain that San Francisco is his destination until he signs elsewhere. Maels Rodriguez and Pedro Astacio will both be showing off for teams in coming weeks, and those are news stories worth listening for. Please, to anyone reading this, stop the Pete Rose stuff! Baseball deserves better air-time than Pete Rose.

    WTNYJanuary 07, 2004
    Rocky Times
    By Bryan Smith

    Maybe winning in Denver is impossible. Maybe whatever method anyone tries, the Rockies are doomed for failure. Maybe this mess isn't Dan O'Dowd's fault. But one thing that's for sure, one thing that eludes Rockie management, is that it's time for a front office change.

    Since expansion built the infamous Coors Field, Denver has three one season where the Rockies finished five games over .500. The Rockies outdid their fellow new team, Florida, in the first three seasons, ultimately winning the Wild Card spot in 1995. But since then, the Marlins have won two world championships, while Colorado has barely smelled .500 baseball. Dan O'Dowd's tried a lot of things, for example, he has tried to outdo Coors Field by paying top dollar for great pitchers like the late Darryl Kile, Mike Hampton, and Denny Neagle. That method didn't work, as that trio's combined performance was a catastrophic 61-81, 5.72ERA.

    Well, if curveballs won't curve, then beat 'em with bats, right? O'Dowd has tried that, locking up talents like Larry Walker and Todd Helton to long, expensive deals. Recently, he went after high-priced talents like Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson. But in 2003, if just didn't work...again. The Rockies need someone who will think differently, a new-age type. Whether that means DePodesta, Antonetti, or Gleeman, I don't know. My problems with Dan O'Dowd grew this offseason, during which the Rockies have not recognized fungibility. In Coors Field, hitters are fungible. Walker, Helton, Wilson and Johnson is a great start, but why spend a lot of money on 2B, SS, 3B, and LF? Instead, why not develop Major League ready players for the future?

    O'Dowd started the offseason nicely in my mind, dealing weak-hitting, slick fielding shortstop Juan Uribe to the White Sox for 2B Aaron Miles. I've written on Miles in the past on this blog, as he has become one of my favorite players in the minors during recent seasons. I love the idea of a 5-8 second basemen winning International League MVP. I love the idea of a scrappy, blue collar player hitting .322/.369/.450 in AA ('02), and .304/.351/.445 in AAA. Even before that, O'Dowd re-signed Mark Bellhorn to a 490K non-guaranteed contract, a great job recognizing talent for cheap costs. Or so I thought...

    After the Miles trade on December 4, I wrote on this blog with confidence that the Rockies would fill their four open slots with Miles (2B), Bellhorn (SS), Garret Atkins (3B), and Rene Reyes (LF). Since then, that idea has slowly deteriorated, to the point where none of those players currently sit first on the depth chart. How could this happen?

    December 10- Rockies sign Vinny Castilla to one-year contract
    December 16- Rockies trade Mark Bellhorn to Red Sox for PTBNL
    December 23- Rockies sign Jeremy Burnitz to one-year contract
    January 5- Rockies sign Royce Clayton and Damian Jackson to minor league, non-guaranteed deals

    Yuk, my Miles-Bellhorn-Atkins-Reyes thought became Jackson-Clayton-Castilla-Burnitz in a month's time. While the latter group may match my choices in terms of baseball perfomances, my argument comes down to money. Next year, Aaron Miles, Garrett Atkins, and Rene Reyes are eligible for the Major League minimum. Mark Bellhorn will be playing in Beantown for the $490,000 contract Dan O'Dowd signed. Combined, those four players would have cost the Rockies $1.39M. But now, with the plan O'Dowd has created, his 2B/SS/3B/LF foursome will make much more. Castilla is slated to make $2.1M, and Burnitz is guaranteed $1.25M. While Clayton and Jackson aren't guaranteed money, you better believe their contracts have easily reachable incentives. That being said, I'm confident saying that group will make $5M next season, or $3.61M less than my choices. Now, let's go position-by-position, and talk about these players...

    The closest battle this Spring Training will be at second base, where it appears Clint Hurdle is going to give Miles a chance. Instead of arguing for Miles, I'll go after Damian Jackson. For instance, in the last five years, only once has Jackson topped a .260 batting average (2003), and only once has he topped a .340OBP (2000). Never has he topped a .380 slugging percentage, and he hasn't played actively since 2001. What upside can the Rockies possibly see in this player, other than 30 meaningless steals? Earl Weaver might be great in Coors Field, because a smart baseball man realizes steals are not a good idea in Coors, just wait for the three-run jimmy-jack.

    At shortstop, there is no way Royce Clayton is a better choice than Mark Bellhorn. While the latter struggled horribly last season, remember he hit 27 home runs in 2002, and that wasn't in Coors. As for Clayton, he's hit 27 home runs...in the last three seasons combined. While he's more slick with the glove than Bellhorn, his best OBP in the last four years was .315. Like Jackson, he hasn't sniffed a .400SLG in that time either. The keys in Coors are this: get on base and hit it deep. Jackson and Clayton don't do that, but Miles and Bellhorn can.

    Garrett Atkins was the hit of Spring Training last year, hitting .525 in 40AB, including eight extra-base hits. He continued to hit while in AAA, finishing the season with a .319/.382/.481line. While he isn't highly regarded with the glove, the kid can hit. And Hell, if he doesn't, Rockie first-round pick Ian Stewart ain't too far behind. Castilla is probably getting money as payback for his great mid-90s seasons, I mean, his upside isn't much beyond Atkins'. Remember that since 1999, his last season in Denver, Castilla's highest OBP has been .331. He's only one year removed from a disastrous .232/.268/.348 2002 season, and he could definitely retreat back to that form. Why take the chance? That's a $2.1M bet...

    As for left field, it's hard to argue against Jeremy Burnitz, who has forty home run potential in Coors. He's had .311 and .299 OBPs the last two seasons though, which is a little less than encouraging. Instead, I would push for Rene Reyes, who might not bring Burnitz's defense, but he'll bring a bat. He did just that in Colorado Springs a year ago, hitting .343 with a .380OBP and a .470SLG. If he doesn't work out, Brad Hawpe and Shin Soo-Choo will be hitting in AAA, so you really can't lose there.

    To conclude this decision, I'll go to ZiPS predictions, thanks to Baseball Primer...

    Miles: .298/.352/.456
    Bellhorn: .244/.362/.411
    Atkins: .297/.359/.439
    Reyes: .319/.357/.467

    Jackson: .276/.343/.371
    Clayton: .229/.297/.336
    Castilla: .268/.309/.449
    Burnitz: .251/.330/.533

    I'll be back tomorrow, finishing my argument on the Rox. And kudos to Allan Baird, whom has created a pretty sensational lineup:

    1. Aaron Guiel- RF
    2. Angel Berroa- SS
    3. Juan Gonzalez- LF
    4. Carlos Beltran- CF
    5. Mike Sweeney- 1B
    6. Matt Stairs- DH
    7. Benito Santiago- C
    8. Joe Randa- 3B
    9. Desi Relaford- 2B

    Yikes. Let's hope Gleeman's got the Royals in Vegas...

    WTNYJanuary 06, 2004
    Back from the Dead
    By Bryan Smith

    Well, I can't say I was pleased to get back from vacation and to hear the two baseball topics getting the most press are Pete Rose and the Hall of Fame. Yuk! The only thing I have to say about Rose is that he will make one great hitting coach, and I won't waste time reading his book. As for the Hall, I voted for Eck, Moliter, Blyleven, Sutter, Gossage, and Sandberg at the Internet Baseball Hall of Fame. I'll let others debate my choices, and move on to topics that interest me more, like...

    Over at www.theminorsfirst.com, Mike Gullo has posted his Top 100 prospects for 2004, and done a damn good job if I say so myself. I created a rough top 25 on my trip, and while it's a little different, all lists will remain virtually the same. I'll be making 4 posts relatively soon with twenty-five prospects everyday, and I'll let that serve as my rebuttal. I'll also be e-mailing Gullo, and hopefully I'll get enough discussion with him to make a post as well. Basically, my main thoughts are Bobby Jenks is way too low, Ryan Madson is too high, and I would flip Jason Bay and Prince Fielder for sure. But as I said, more on that later...

    Since this is my first day back I want to touch on a lot of issues, and I'll get into more detail as the week progresses. So, here goes...

    Not a great week for Ugueth Urbina, who couldn't have been happy to hear that Braden Looper and Danys Baez are all but signed to the Mets and Devil Rays, respectively. I predicted Urbina would end up in New York, but I can't say I'm surprised the team went the cheaper route in Looper. Braden has been more than reliable in the last five seasons, pitching in at least 71 games in each year. For a flamethrower, his K/9 numbers have remained quite low:

    1999: 5.42
    2000: 3.88
    2001: 6.59
    2002: 5.76
    2003: 6.25

    It shouldn't come as a surprise that 2000 was his worst year in terms of ERA, 4.41, and he has remained relatively effective each of the last three years, keeping a K/BB above 5.75. Looper also relies heavily on his walk total, and 2002 was his best season largely because he only issued 28 free passes in 86 innings. He definitely favors right-handers, and is much more likely to give up the extra-base hit to a leftie. As for Baez, while he won't be used in the middle relief role I suggest, Lou Piniella will prefer him to Lance Carter at the end of games. Baez is vicious to right-handers, only allowing them to bat .165 off him last season. He struggled a bit in the second half, but I imagine he'll get 25 saves with an ERA under 3.50 next season. As for Urbina, he's threatened to stay in Venezuela if he doesn't get a contract, and if Cliff Politte ends up with the White Sox, it might be between that and returning to Texas.

    As I talk about Baez, the Indians made a deal to acquire another reliever, Scott Stewart, from the Expos. After doing pretty well the first three months of the season, Stewart broke down, only throwing 8.1 terrible innings (16H, 9ER). His H/9 was way down last season, but he should be OK next year, making a nice Cleveland bullpen next year, with David Riske, Bob Wickman, Rafael Betancourt, Jack Cressend, etc.

    While I write this article, two new headlines have appeared on ESPN, first is the Robbie Alomar is headed to the Diamondbacks, and secondly that the Mariners are close to dealing Jeff Cirillo to the Padres. I don't see how Robbie is a better player than Matt Kata, so basically the Diamondbacks are paying millions for replaceable value. Justifiable for teams with lots of money, but not so much for a team complaining of having no money. The D-Backs rotation is slated to have Johnson, Brandon Webb, Elmer Dessens, and some distasteful combination of Casey Fossum, Mike Gosling, Edgar Gonzalez, John Patterson, Andrew Good, and Shane Reynolds. Yikes, don't ya think Alomar's money should be headed in the starting pitching direction?

    Finally, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick is reporting Cirillo will be dealt with Brian Sweeney and cash for Kevin Jarvis, Wiki Gonzalez, Dave Hansen, and a minor leaguer. Cirillo will play very sparingly with the Padres, although Jarvis really didn't look to have a better fate. Jarvis will pitch the end of games for the Mariners, and might put up some decent numbers in the large stadium of Safeco. Both these players are terrible, so I won't waste your time going into detail about this move.

    That's about it today, but I promise I'll have more up this week. The Royals are the frontrunners to land Juan Gonzalez, which would give Allan Baird an A+ for offseason moves in my book. Farewell to the great Tug McGraw, and for all those Cubs fans out there, take note of Javier Vazquez's 4-year, $45M deal with the Yankees, that sets Wood's market.

    WTNYJanuary 04, 2004
    Nueve Gordo Padre
    By Bryan Smith

    I'm still on vacation to all those who keep coming back looking for new content, but I figure I have enough time today to write on the David Wells situation. So, here goes...

    In case you didn't hear, David Wells has signed a one-year, $1.25M contract with the San Diego Padres, with enough incentives to make the deal worth $7M. He broke a verbal agreement to sign a minor league deal with the Yankees, quite reminiscent of what he did to Jerry Colangelo two years back.

    Wells'National League experience is limited to interleague games, and an 11-start stint with the Reds in 1995, where he went 6-5, with a 3.69ERA. Wells has exactly 200 wins in his career, and has found a second wind after a fairly ugly 1999-2001.

    Last season Wells went 15-7 in 31 appearances (1 in relief), compiling a 4.14ERA during that time. His BAA was .286, well above his career mark, and joining only three seasons during which he's allowed a batting average against above .280. Those seasons were 2001 (4.47ERA), 1996 (5.14ERA), annd 1992 (5.40ERA). The reason Wells was able to keep his ERA down was walks. While they never have posed a problem for Boomer in the past, his BB/9 was the lowest in his career, and his 5.05K/BB is one of only three seasons that he's topped five, along with 2000 (4.12ERA) and 1998 (3.47).

    Some good news for Wells is that he won't be pitching in Yankee Stadium anymore, as his ERA was 4.89 at home. He was 7-2 with a 3.36ERA on the road, although it's unknown how PETCO Park will play out for southpaws. Wells has always sat along the league average in terms of groundballs and flyballs, but he should benefit from not having the likes of Jeter, Soriano, and Giambi behind him next season.

    Wells showed signs of age and/or fatigue in the second half, only going 4-4 with a 4.71ERA. The worst of that came in August, when Wells allowed 22 earned runs in 22.1 innings, which translates to an 0-2, 8.87ERA record. He bounced back in September, and had a nice playoff run as well. There were no significant injury problems during his two-year return with the Bronx Bombers, so there is no reason to believe his once-faulty back should hurt him in San Diego.

    For the Padres, this creates an interesting situation in their starting rotation. Guaranteed slots are Wells, Brian Lawrence, and young phenom Jake Peavy. Adam Eaton pitched well while returning from arm surgery a year ago, showing huge promise, and he should land a spot as well. That means the team will have newly acquired pitchers Sterling Hitchock and Ismael Valdes fight for the last spot, with the expensive Kevin Jarvis getting a shot (unless he's traded for Jeff Cirillo this week).

    Hitchcock has relief experience, appearing in 81 games as a reliever during his career, including 46 during the last two seasons. But, Sterling had a very nice run starting with the Cardinals in September, and is also guaranteed money by the Padres. Valdes signed a non-guaranteed contract, which is likely to make him a free agent come April 1. Valdes hasn't relieved actively since his rookie season in 1994, but has been very frustrating for teams ever since his wonderful 1995-1997 seasons in Los Angeles. My guess is that Hitchcock wins the job, and Valdes will land a rotation slot with a team that loses a starter to injury during Spring Training.

    As for Steinbrenner's boys, this shouldn't hurt them too much, since Jon Lieber is still slated to pitch in the fifth hole. Some have rumored that the Boss will go after Cuban flamethrower Maels Rodriguez, after he works out for teams this month. Chuck Finley was contacted by the team, but declined an offer to pitch on the East Coast. The New York Times ran an article quoting a scout saying they need a left-hander for Yankee Stadium, likely leaving King George quite frustrated. If that doesn't make a person happy, what will?

    I was very pleased to receive word of this transaction on my vacation for two reasons. One, the idea of Wells and Barry Bonds facing off numerous times should be entertaining in the least. Secondly, are there two better teammates in baseball than David Wells and Rod Beck. Just imagine them sitting in the clubhouse after a game, throwing back beers, weighing in at a combined weight of 500 pounds...

    WTNYDecember 28, 2003
    Gone
    By Bryan Smith

    Well people, I'll be gone for the next week, so today's post is my New Year's present to everyone. For your enjoyment I typed up every lineup the way it currently stands. Enjoy, and maybe I'll get all the rotations and bullpens done on vacation. Have a Happy New Year!

    Atlanta Braves
    C- Estrada
    1B- LaRoche/Franco
    2B- Giles
    SS- Furcal
    3B- DeRosa
    LF- C. Jones
    CF- A. Jones
    RF- Drew

    Florida Marlins
    C- Castro
    1B- Choi
    2B- Castillo
    SS- Gonzalez
    3B- Lowell
    LF- Conine
    CF- Pierre
    RF- Cabrera

    Philadelphia Phillies
    C- Lieberthal
    1B- Thome
    2B- Utley
    SS- Rollins
    3B- Bell/Polanco
    LF- Burrell
    CF- Byrd
    RF- Abreu

    Montreal Expos
    C- Schneider
    1B- Johnson
    2B- Vidro
    SS- Cabrera
    3B- Batista
    LF- Wilkerson
    CF- Chavez/Sledge
    RF- Everett

    New York Mets
    C- Piazza
    1B- Phillips
    2B- Reyes
    SS- Matsui
    3B- Wigginton
    LF- Floyd
    CF- Cameron
    RF- Perez

    Chicago Cubs
    C- Barrett
    1B- Lee
    2B- Walker/Grudzi
    SS- Gonzalez
    3B- Ramirez
    LF- Alou
    CF- Patterson
    RF- Sosa

    Houston Astros
    C- Ausmus
    1B- Bagwell
    2B- Kent
    SS- Everett
    3B- Ensberg
    LF- Berkman
    CF- Biggio
    RF- Hidalgo

    St. Louis Cardinals
    C- Matheny
    1B- Gall
    2B- Hart
    SS- Renteria
    3B- Rolen
    LF- Pujols
    CF- Edmonds
    RF- Sanders

    Cincy Reds
    C- LaRue
    1B- Casey
    2B- Jimenez
    SS- Larkin
    3B- Larson
    LF- Dunn
    CF- Griffey
    RF- Kearns

    Pittsburgh Pirates
    C- Kendall
    1B- Wilson
    2B- Sanchez
    SS- Wilson
    3B- Stynes
    LF- Bay
    CF- Redman
    RF- Davis

    Milwaukee Brewers
    C- Moeller
    1B- Overbay
    2B- Spivey/Ginter
    SS- Counsell
    3B- Helms
    LF- Grieve
    CF- Sanchez
    RF- Jenkins

    San Francisco Giants
    C- Pierzynski
    1B- Snow
    2B- Durham
    SS- Perez
    3B- Alfonzo
    LF- Bonds
    CF- Grissom
    RF- Tucker/Mohr

    Arizona Diamondbacks
    C- Hammock
    1B- Sexson
    2B- Kata
    SS- Cintron
    3B- Hillenbrand
    LF- Gonzalez
    CF- Finley
    RF- Bautista

    Los Angeles Dodgers
    C- Lo Duca
    1B- Ventura
    2B- Cora
    SS- Izturis
    3B- Beltre
    LF- Encarnacion
    CF- Roberts
    RF- Green

    Colorado Rockies
    C- Johnson
    1B- Helton
    2B- Miles
    SS- Barmes
    3B- Castilla
    LF- Burnitz
    CF- Wilson
    RF- Walker

    San Diego Padres
    C- Hernandez
    1B- Nevin
    2B- Loretta
    SS- Greene/Vazquez
    3B- Burroughs
    LF- Klesko
    CF- Giles
    RF- Nady

    Oakland Athletics
    C- Miller
    1B- Hatteberg
    2B- Ellis
    SS- Crosby
    3B- Chavez
    LF- Kielty
    CF- Kotsay
    RF- Dye
    DH- Durazo

    Seattle Mariners
    C- Wilson/Davis
    1B- Olerud
    2B- Boone
    SS- Guillen
    3B- Spezio
    LF- Ibanez
    CF- Winn
    RF- Ichiro
    DH- Martinez

    Anaheim Angels
    C- Molina
    1B- Quinlan
    2B- Kennedy
    SS- Eckstein
    3B- Glaus
    LF- Anderson
    CF- Erstad
    RF- Guillen
    DH- Salmon

    Texas Rangers
    C- Diaz
    1B- Teixeira
    2B- Young
    SS- Rodriguez
    3B- Blalock
    LF- Mench
    CF- Nix/Nivar
    RF- Jordan
    DH- Fullmer

    Minnesota Twins
    C- Mauer
    1B- Mientkiewicz
    2B- Rivas
    SS- Guzman
    3B- Koskie
    LF- Stewart
    CF- Hunter
    RF- Jones
    DH- LeCroy

    Chicago White Sox
    C- Olivo
    1B- Konerko
    2B- Harris
    SS- Valentin
    3B- Crede
    LF- Lee
    CF- Rowand
    RF- Ordonez
    DH- Thomas

    Kansas City Royals
    C- Santiago
    1B- Sweeney
    2B- Relaford/Graffanino
    SS- Berroa
    3B- Randa
    LF- DeJesus
    CF- Beltran
    RF- Guiel
    DH- Stairs/Harvey

    Cleveland Indians
    C- Martinez
    1B- Hafner
    2B- Belliard
    SS- Vizquel
    3B- Blake
    LF- Escobar
    CF- Bradley
    RF- Gerut
    DH- Lawton

    Detroit Tigers
    C- Inge
    1B- Pena/Shelton
    2B- Vina
    SS- Santiago
    3B- Munson
    LF- White
    CF- Sanchez
    RF- Higginson/Monroe
    DH- Young

    New York Yankees
    C- Posada
    1B- Giambi
    2B- Soriano
    SS- Jeter
    3B- Boone
    LF- Matsui
    CF- Lofton
    RF- Sheffield
    DH- Williams

    Boston Red Sox
    C- Varitek
    1B- Millar
    2B- Bellhorn/Reese
    SS- Garciaparra
    3B- Mueller
    LF- Ramirez
    CF- Damon
    RF- Nixon
    DH- Ortiz

    Toronto Blue Jays
    C- Myers/Cash
    1B- Delgado
    2B- Hudson
    SS- Woodward
    3B- Hinske
    LF- Catalanotto
    CF- Wells
    RF- R. Johnson
    DH- Phelps

    Baltimore Orioles
    C- Lopez
    1B- Gibbons
    2B- Hairston
    SS- Tejada
    3B- Mora
    LF- Bigbie
    CF- Matos
    RF- Cust
    DH- Cordova/Segui

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    C- Hall
    1B- Martinez
    2B- Lugo
    SS- Sanchez
    3B- Blum
    LF- Crawford
    CF- Baldelli
    RF- Cruz
    DH- Huff

    And my earliest 2004 predictions for divisional champions: Yankees, Royals, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Padres

    Breakout Stars: Brad Wilkerson and Jake Peavy

    I'm out.

    WTNYDecember 24, 2003
    The Night Before Christmas
    By Bryan Smith

    Not much is doing in baseball as GMs and agents tidy their stockings, but the fun never stops for us bloggers. In fact, a personal favorite blogger, Rich Lederer, wrote a whole post yesterday proving an inaccuracy in a statement I made in yesterday's article. I wrote that Lopez is "far and away the 3rd best catcher in the last 20 years, and probably top 20 all-time." He proves that Lopez is not the 3rd best at all, and actually argues for 5th.

    First, Rich points out what I didn't, that the top two are Mike Piazza and Pudge Rodriguez, then argues on the behalf of Jorge Posada and Jason Kendall. He uses the stat RCAP, or Runs Created Above Position, in showing that Javy stands 9th since 1984, and is 32nd on the all-time list. I used slugging percentage against league average for catchers to see that Lopez was ninth all-time, which led me to my drastic statement. I will concede the fact that Lopez might not be top twenty, and I'll even say that Jorge Posada is better than Loez. But Jason Kendall?

    Kendall Career: .304/.385/.422 64HR 526RBI 620R in 4032AB
    Lopez Career: .287/.337/.502 214HR 694RBI 508R in 4002AB

    In basically the same amount of at-bats, Lopez has hit 150 more home runs than Kendall, and brought in 168 more runners. His lead in slugging makes up for the gap in OBP, although some systems (Aaron Gleeman's GPA) would refute that point. Anyhow, I believe Kendall's recent dip in productivity gives Lopez the edge here. While I made an indefensible statement glorifying Lopez, I refuse to believe that Jason Kendall is a better catcher.

    And while I wrote about the tough opponents in the AL East yesterday, reader John Geer gave me a list of some career splits for Javy and his new enemies:

    Vs. Schilling: .300/.333/.425 1BB/10K in 40AB
    Vs. Pedro: .318/.375/.455 in 22AB
    Vs. Brown: .160/.160/.320 0BB/7K in 25AB
    Vs. Vazquez: .233/.294/.267 3BB/12K in 30AB
    Vs. Lieber: .227/.227/.409 0BB/6K in 22AB

    So, in 139 at-bats against American League pitching, Lopez is hitting .252/.283/.374, and that doesn't even include Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay, Jose Contreras, Derek Lowe, etc. Needless to say I'm not bullish on Javy in 2004, and now Rich has steered me into conceding Javy is the second best catcher in his division.

    Moving in another direction, the Alex Rodriguez deal reached its deadline last night, and the Majors' best player will not be moving to the Northeast. I've written sparingly on this trade due to my own skepticism, and now Yankees fans can rejoice. The backlash we'll hear about from the Boston clubhouse should be harsh, and those who once yearned for Terry Francona's position are likely content.

    Boston is still far and away the second best team in their division, and barring any freak breakouts, should win the Wild Card in 2004. The main competition will come from the loser of the A's v. Angels war, and I don't think either offense can match the Sox firepower. I'm very disappointed with the Players' Union now that this trade has been pronounced dead, and a friend pointed out to me that this more than violates the "free markets for free men" philosophy that free agency was argued for. Rodriguez will stay in Texas and remain an MVP candidate, but we'll likely hear trade rumors in every winter until his contract ceases. Tom Hicks doesn't show the enthusiasm for winning he once did, and only Kerry Wood will be able to transform this franchise into a .500 club. Unfortunately for A-Rod, that's a battle that will be fought in a year, while Alex will be spending another year in purgatory.

    Wood most likely will never leave Chicago though, as Jim Hendry is currently negotiating a long-term contract. The Cubs' GM did have time to make another move yesterday, signing the best second basemen on the free agent market left, none other than postseason hero Todd Walker. Todd turned down better offers from different teams for the chance of winning, and signed a one-year, $1.75M deal. Here's a look at Walker's meaningful splits from 2003:

    Overall: .283/.333/.428
    Vs. RH: .301/.352/.448
    Road: .243/.285/.355
    2nd half: .271/.324/.434

    Walker played inspired baseball in Fenway Park, but shouldn't have a hard time adjusting to the dimensions at Wrigley Field. His role with the Cubs isn't set in stone, although I would imagine something like Walker plays second against right-handers, and Alex Gonzalez will play shortstop against southpaws. Mark Grudzilanek will then shift through the middle infield positions accordingly. Walker will also give Derrek Lee the occasional day off as well.

    Jim Hendry is doing a fantastic job giving Dusty Baker the team that Baker will thrive with, not giving a role to a young hitter. The Cubs may not have the money to sign Pudge Rodriguez anymore, possibly sending him to Los Angeles.

    Finally, a few more transactions that deserve at least a moments time...

    Phillies sign Shawn Wooten- Wooten will actually fill the Tyler Houston role with Philadelphia, hopefully without the drama with Larry Bowa. Wooten will probably let Thome have the day off against some southpaws, keep Todd Pratt to a pinch-hitting role, and might even fill in at third if necessary. His hitting has declined in each of his last three seasons, but his bat is one that easily deserves a bench role.

    Diamondbacks sign Steve Sparks and Shane Reynolds- Not exactly the replacements I would have guessed for Curt Schilling and Miguel Batista, but Garigiola is trying, right? This Arizona team will not be very good next season, although their offense will be the best it's been in years. Both these pitchers are terrible, but Sparks is the type that might have a five game run allowing only 3 runs or something.

    Pirates sign Chris Stynes- Stynes isn't a great hitter, although he does have the potential to put up Mark Loretta-type numbers and make Dave Littlefield look smart. The Pirate roster is beginning to take shape, although the team is still in need of one more outfielder.

    Braves sign Antonio Alfonseca and Armando Almanza- Yikes! The Braves bullpen is going to be hideous after John Smoltz next season, what with Jaret Wright, Alfonseca, Almanza, Will Cunnane, and Jung Bong. Who would have guessed that Leo Mazzone would be missing Roberto Hernandez by the All-Star Break?

    Brewers sign Ben Grieve- Milwaukee will have a very interesting lineup next year, and the Grieve move set it in stone. Barring any earth-shattering move, this will be the Brewers lineup on Opening Day...

    1) Scott Podsednik- CF
    2) Junior Spivey- 2B
    3) Geoff Jenkins- RF
    4) Ben Grieve- LF
    5) Wes Helms- 3B
    6) Lyle Overbay- 1B
    7) Chad Moeller- C
    8) Craig Counsell- SS

    The bench will include Gary Bennett, Keith Ginter, Bill Hall, and Brady Clark. And yes, the Brewers will field the worst team in the National League next season.

    And with that, I leave you. I won't be posting on Christmas, although I am hoping to have a weekend post on Friday. My readership has grown in the past month, and I want to thank all of you, and wish you all a very Merry Christmas. God Bless all of you.

    WTNYDecember 23, 2003
    The Newest O
    By Bryan Smith

    In the last ten years, one big name free agent has come to the Baltimore Orioles. Albert Belle. Unfortunately for Peter Angelos and Orioles' fans, that contract didn't go so well; Belle has made more money from Angelos since his retirement than he made in uniform. The Baltimore front office saw 2003 as their chance to try again, and have been quick on the attack thus far.

    Last week, Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan inked 2002 AL MVP Miguel Tejada to a six-year contract. Given Tejada's age, defensive skills, and fantastic road numbers last year, it's hard to foresee Orioles' brass regretting that move. But yesterday the team went out on the limb more, risking $23M on a 33-year-old catcher. Laughable, right? Well, not exactly. See, this catcher set the record last year for home runs in a season at the catching position. Yes, at age 32, Javy Lopez gave his career a complete turnaround, throwing sabermatricians everywhere for a surprise.

    During the course of his career, Javy Lopez has hit .287/.337/.502, giving the catcher an impressive 114 career OPS+. Compared to his league, Lopez ranks 11th of all catchers in slugging percentage. Lopez is far and away the 3rd best catcher in the last 20 years, and probably top 20 all-time. But given his age, new team, and new style of hitting, what can we expect next season?

    First, let's take a look at the gaudy, insane splits Lopez had last season:

    Overall: .328/.378/.687
    Home: .376/.418/.834
    Road: .290/.345/.567
    Pre-ASB: .307/.352/.636
    Post-ASB: .357/.411/.755

    Lopez showed a huge preference to Turner Field, which played out to favor hitters slightly last season. In contrast, Camden Yards was a pitcher's park last year, very similar to National League fields Miller Park and Shea Stadium. Interestingly enough, Lopez hit only two extra-base hits in those stadiums a year ago, although 27 at-bats is a very small sample size. Turner Field will not see Javy at all in 2004, so expect him to be much more like the road version of himself next season.

    To put Javy's 2003 into perspective, the slugger hit more home runs (by 6), and had a better slugging percentage (by .101) than any other catcher over 31 all-time. After tossing out Mike Piazza, these are the numbers for most home runs by a catcher after 31 years of age:

    1. Lopez ('03)- 43
    2. Carlton Fisk ('85)- 37
    3. Terry Steinbach ('96)- 35
    3. Walker Cooper ('47)- 35
    5. Roy Campanella ('55)- 32

    And those, besides Piazza's 2001 and 2002, are the only times a catcher after 31 has hit thirty home runs. Now here is the list using slugging percentage:

    1. Lopez ('03)- .687
    2. Walker Cooper ('47)- .586
    3. Roy Campanella ('55)- .583
    4. Mike Piazza ('01)- .573

    Only four times in the history of Major League Baseball has a catcher above thirty-one years of age has slugged better than .550, and Lopez is the only one to slug .600. Here is a look at the five seasons mentioned above not including Piazza, whom I deem as a bad comp to any catcher...

    Fisk '85: .238/.320/.488 115OPS+
    Steinbach '96: .272/.342/.529 120OPS+
    Cooper '47: .305/.339/.586 141OPS+
    Campanella '55: .318/.395/.583 153OPS+

    Lopez '03: .328/.378/.687 174OPS+

    While Javy blows everyone out of the waters with his 2003, it's interestring that Campanella and Cooper came up as the two closest examples. Walker Cooper began his Major League career with 19AB in 1940, although he didn't reach 400AB with the St. Louis Browns until the 1942 season, when he was twenty-seven. Cooper was oft-injured during his career, but did have 1284AB during the 1942-1944 seasons, compiling an impressive .305/.341/.466 hitting line. He only had 298AB the next two seasons, and in 1947 exploded with 35 home runs, nearly 3 times his previous high of 13.

    Campanella was similar to Cooper, not reaching 400AB until he was 27 years of age. In that 1949 season, Campanella hit .287/.385/.498 for the Brooklyn Dodgers, and then improved his slugging percentage in each of the next two seasons. Campanella's best season actually came as a 31-year-old, when he hit 41HR and hit .312/.395/.611 with the Dodgers. After an off year in 1954, Roy had his fateful 1955 season.

    In contrast, Lopez started playing often in 1995 with the Braves, when he was only 25 years old. In that season, Lopez hit .315/.344/.498 with the Braves, similar to Campanella's first real season with Brooklyn. He was always very close to Cooper in terms of OBP, but closer to Campanella in SLG. As a 27-year-old in 1998, Lopez broke out, hitting .295/.328/.540 with 34 home runs, although his OPS had dropped from the year before (when he hit only 23HR). Javy was then hurt during the 1999 sason, only catching in 65 games. Coming back from injury was a disaster, as Javy got worse in AVE, OBP, and SLG in from 2000 to 2001, and 2001 to 2002. He looked finished in 2002 after hitting .233/.299/.372, but obviously bounced back with one of the greatest catching offensive seasons of all-time.

    So how did Campanella and Cooper finish after these big seasons? Campanella struggled mightily the next two seasons, putting up .219/.333/.394 and .242/.316/.388 lines. He did manage to hit 33HR in those two seasons, which spanned 718AB, although only 15 doubles. While that doesn't bode well for Lopez, remember that Campanella's 1955 was his 33-year season, while Lopez was 32 last year. Cooper's career went until 1957, actually closing out the same year as Roy. But during those ten seasons after 1947, Cooper only amassed 300AB once, in 1949, when he hit .258/.308/.436. In the ten years after his fantastic 1947 season, Walker Cooper had 2386 at-bats, and hit a paltry .275/.327/.425.

    Finally, let's consider the competition Javy will be facing next season. Moving to the AL East, this is a list of the pitcher's Javy will face in-division next year, ranked by their 2003 ERA:

    1. Pedro Martinez -2.22
    2. Kevin Brown- 2.35
    3. Curt Schilling- 2.95
    4. Javier Vazquez- 3.24
    5. Roy Halladay- 3.25
    6. Jose Contreras- 3.30
    7. Mike Mussina- 3.40

    Yes, there are seven pitchers in the AL East that had ERAs below 3.50 last year, and they rank as some of the best pitchers in baseball. This list also didn't include Derek Lowe, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Miguel Batista, Pat Hentgen, and Jeremi Gonzalez. Lopez didn't face the best competition in the NL East last season, in which Kevin Millwood seemed to be his worst enemy.

    When considering the change in ballparks, change in division, and change in age, it's unquestionable that Javy Lopez won't nearly match his 2003 statistics. My guess is .275/.330/.475, likely going from the most valuable fantasy catcher, to one that finds himself below the likes of Mike Lieberthal. But Baltimore fans can't complain. At least he's not Albert Belle.

    (This article couldn't have been possible without the help of Rich Lederer, and his trusted Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. So do yourself a favor and head over to Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT, then go buy an Encyclopedia from Lee Sinins)

    WTNYDecember 22, 2003
    Examining the Non-Tenders
    By Bryan Smith

    Busy weekend, as teams sent 59 players to free agency as an early Christmas present. The list doesn't include any big names, as players like Freddy Garcia and Carlos Lee were kept by their respective teams. Instead, the free agency market was clouded with players who even the average GM likely didn't recognize (i.e. Geraldo Garcia).

    Of the 58 players non-tendered, seven are expected or have re-signed with that team. Mark Redman and Michael Barrett re-upped with the Marlins and Cubs respectively, while Edwin Almonte, Gabe Kapler, Jason Shiell, Kris Wilson, and Scott Elarton are all expected to re-sign. Teams can re-sign players then non-tender until January 9th, making the arbitration situation the single most confusing in all of sports. This is what Michael Barrett has seen in the last week:

    - Michael Barrett traded to Oakland for P2NL
    - Barrett traded to the Cubs for P2NL (a.k.a. Damian Miller)
    - Cubs non-tender Michael Barrett
    - Barrett signs with Cubs for one-year, $1.05M

    Whew. This is an area the next Commissioner (Alderson?!?!) must amend, but something Bud seems much too preoccupied to do. Also, by my count, eleven players were non-tendered with less than twenty games experience for pitchers, and 150AB for hitters. That list is...

    - Andy Van Hekken
    - Geraldo Garcia
    - Scott Chiasson
    - Matt Miller
    - Kit Pellow
    - Alfredo Gonzalez
    - Derek Thompson
    - Jeremy Hill
    - Travis Chapman
    - Miguel Ojeda
    - Todd Sears

    Of that list, I would say that Sears is the best bet to have a future. If you remember, Sears was fantastic in Spring Training last year, but flamed out after only 24G in the Bigs. He is a nice left-handed bat to have off the bench, but his inability to play the outfield well likely will keep him resigned to the 4-A mantra.

    That leaves, by my count, 41 meaningful players that have now joined the free agent market. Seventeen of those players are hitters, and only four have earned a starting job over the last two seasons. Karim Garcia held a job well in the second half of 2002 with the Indians, actually leading the Majors in RBI during that span. Marlon Anderson has spent time starting with the Devil Rays and Phillies, occupying both the 2B and 3B roles. Randall Simon has held a starting 1B job at various times during his career, and he held up a platoon with the Cubs late last season. Finally, the best player on the market is Jay Payton, he of the .302/.354/.512 line.

    Payton will be the most sought after of the non-tenders, although his numbers are seen as slightly inflated due to Coors Field. Payton is considered a league average centerfielder, although he primarily played in left last season. He's an interesting Coors player, seeing as though his road numbers were still good at .281/.330/.483 in 2003. My gut tells me the Padres will be all over Jay, and that the rumor that Boston was interested is completely bogus.

    After Jay, here is a ranking of the other 16 hitters, in terms of usefulness...

    1. Karim Garcia
    2. Marlon Anderson
    3. David Delucci
    4. Randall Simon
    5. Rod Barajas- only real catcher
    6. Damian Jackson
    7. Russ Branyan
    8. Shawn Wooten
    9. Lou Merloni
    10. Reggie Taylor
    11. Frank Menechino
    12. Ruben Mateo
    13. Jason Sandberg
    14. Ben Petrick
    15. Augie Ojeda- if only for the name
    16. Jason Tyner

    As for the pitchers, I see the list as breakable into three categories, first the starters, then the right-handed relievers, and finally the southpaws. The starting list is limited to three, Jason Johnson, Damian Moss, and Orlando Hernandez. Personally, I find the Orioles actions here indefensible, seeing as Rodrigo Lopez (he of the 5.82ERA), is the only current Baltimore starter with more than 25 2003 starts. Next on that list? Omar Daal with 17 starts. Yikes. In fact, this is the current Oriole pitching staff, barring any changes...

    1. Rodrigo Lopez
    2. Omar Daal
    3. Kurt Ainsworth
    4. Matt Riley
    5. Eric DuBose

    Now surely the team will sign a starter, possibly Sidney Ponson, but how can they defend throwing so many millions into hitting without any pitchers? I mean, as I'm writing this, I hear Javy is close to a 3-year, $23M. My guess? Kelvim Escobar will be the better buy...

    Jason Johnson and El Duque are a toss up, where Johnson has the edge in pitching, Hernandez is the bigger and better name. Johnson is fully capable of an ERA in the low 4.00s, although he struggled mightily after the break, and on the road last season. Hernandez was hurt all of last season, and may be getting to the point where middle relief is the better option. And Damian Moss? He sucks, but will undoubtedly have a job next year, if not only for the 'burns.

    Here's my ranking of the top 10 right-handed relievers...

    1. Braden Looper
    2. Danys Baez
    3. Cliff Pollitte
    4. Jayson Durocher
    5. Scott Strickland
    6. Jeremy Fikac
    7. Mike Lincoln
    8. Britt Reames
    9. Gene Stechschulte
    10. Toby Borland

    Looper is the most accomplished of the bunch, what with his new World Series ring and all. Teams with open closing positions will go after him, although I imagine the Devil Rays and White Sox to be the higher bidders. Baez could be very good in a middle relief role, and it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are interested, seeing as they almost acquired him a month ago. Jayson Durocher and Scott Stickland are coming off surgeries, but both had high upside beforehand.

    Finally, my list of LOOGYs...

    1. Carl Sadler
    2. Scott Sauerbeck
    3. Trever Miller
    4. Armando Almanza
    5. Pedro Feliciano
    6. Mike Matthews
    7. Valerio de los Santos
    8. Troy Brohawn

    I like Sadler a lot, so I decided to put him above Sauerbeck and Miller. He did quite well in the Indians 'pen last year, and will come very cheap. Miller was also very good in Toronto, but Sauerbeck has a bigger name. The Padres are in the market for a LOOGY, so expect them to land one of these names.

    Whew, so that's all the non-tenders. I wanted to close with comments on a few transactions. First, Jeremy Burnitz signed with the Rockies this weekend. I just don't understand where O'Dowd is going this offseason, with millions being spent on the likes of Burnitz and Castilla, when Atkins and Rene Reyes were ready. Next they'll spend on a shortstop, and in a year's time they'll regret not having Bellhorn there. O'Dowd needs to be spending this money in pitching! Imprison O'Dowd!

    Secondly, the World Champions named their closer this week, signing Armando Benitez to a one-year deal. Benitez going back to Shea will be quite interesting, as will be his attempts at closing. I've said letting Armando just face right-handers would produce good results, but I wince everytime he faces a left-hander. So does he, as his BB/9 rate skyrockets. The Marlins won't necessarily regret this, but Benitez and Fox isn't the scariest 8-9 combo...

    Finally, the Red Sox inked Pokey Reese this weekend, likely as a defensive replacement. He'll be good to start during Lowe's games, but I don't find him completely useful other than that.

    That's it for today, have a good one...

    WTNYDecember 19, 2003
    California Love
    By Bryan Smith

    While the East coast teams are always the more interesting and dramatic topic of discussion, this offseason has been quite tumultous for a foursome out West. Four California teams, the Padres, Angels, Dodgers, and A's, all have posed very interesting subplots during this offseason. In short, they read as follows:

    San Diego: Back in the game, using surprise element to take NL West
    Angels: New owner, more money, 2002 philosophy
    Dodgers: No owner, no offense, no money
    A's: Billy Beane's creativity, very different Oakland team in 2004

    Now, for the more detailed versions...

    San Diego Padres

    After five years of being out of contention, Kevin Towers chose his time wisely. While each of the NL West teams have become worse during this offseason, the Padres began improving last July. Towers used money he received from Trevor Hoffman's insurance to trade for Brian Giles, one of the best OBP players in the Majors today.

    Quickly during the offseason, Towers traded with Oakland, acquiring Ramon Hernandez (and T. Long) for Mark Kotsay, which would then open up a slot for Xavier Nady. He kept Mark Loretta, a player who broke out last season, Hoffman, and new fan favorite Rod Beck. He went after a Japanese relief ace, and has most recently finalized the rotation. Yesterday, the team announced it had struck deals with Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes. Here is a look at those two players...

    Hitchcock: 6-4 4.72 91/87.2 68/32
    As starter: 4-1 4.26 35/38 33/11

    Valdes: 8-8 6.10 148/115 47/29
    Road: 3-4 4.98 69/59.2 18/16

    Neither of these are huge signings, but each has a little bit of upside. Hitchcock showed great improvement starting with the Cardinals down the stretch, showing very good H/9 and K/9 numbers. Valdes was terrible last season, but it was also because of pitching in the third worst stadium in baseball for starters, Arlington. His road numbers are likely indicative of where he stands, and by moving to the NL, and especially the spacious NL West ballparks (save Coors), Valdes should be right around 4.50. His contract is miniscule, and the team could still conceivably make an offer to Greg Maddux.

    One problem this team faces is defense. Their starting outfield right now would be Ryan Klesko in left, Giles in center, and Xavier Nady in right. I've advocated trading Phil Nevin, but it appears that a centerfielder will be acquired and Nady will find himself on the bench. San Diego lost out on Mike Cameron and Kenny Lofton, and they are having a difficult time trading for centerfielders, because everyone asks for Peavy.

    Jake Peavy had modest numbers last season (12-11, 4.11), but is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball primed for a breakout season. He had great H/9 numbers (173H/194.2IP), and also struck out a considerable number of batters (156). His second half ERA was just 3.46, and his BB/9 and HR/9 improved in that span. The team is refusing to trade Peavy at all costs, and same goes for Adam Eaton. Eaton is a very similar pitcher who made great strides coming back from arm surgery last season, and should improve even more in 2004. These two youngsters, along with Brian Lawrence, have provided a good foundation for the rotation.

    All that's left on the to-do list for Towers is to acquire a CF, and sign a LOOGY. Jacque Jones appears to be a reasonable candidate, and the team will pursue Jay Payton if they believe he has the range for center. I am calling for Mike Myers to be picked up as a LOOGY, and that's reasonable given the dwindling resources Towers has. Regardless, I am already looking forward to the Padres v. Giants battle next year, one that will largely depend on the arms of Hitchcock, Valdes, Peavy and Eaton.

    Anaheim Angels

    Arte Moreno vowed to Angel fans when he bought their franchise that he would spend this offseason. So far, he has not let them down, forking over serious coinage for the likes of Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon, and most recently, Jose Guillen. The team also surprised me Thursday by re-signing Adam Kennedy to a three-year contract, deciding against non-tendering him. This either means that David Eckstein is about to join the non-tender list, or that scrappy middle infield will be back in 2004.

    Another difficult non-tender decision will be that of Jarrod Washburn. Escobar, Colon, and Guillen have limited Stonemann's money, and while Washburn would make this rotation fantastic, he would prove costly. Plus, the team now has six starters: Colon, Escobar, Washburn, Ortiz, Lackey, and Aaron Sele. Prospects Bobby Jenks and Ervin Santana will be up in September, if not earlier.

    The bullpen won't be a worry, and the team may very well non-tender Ben Weber on Saturday as well. Troy Percival and Francisco Rodriguez are great at the end of games, and Brendan Donnelly is fantastic in middle relief. The club also loved what they saw from Derrick Turnbow, and Scot Sheilds remains their long man. The team has lacked a real LOOGY for years, indicating that Kevin Gregg or Greg Jones may gets spots as well.

    Offensively, the addition of Guillen is questionable. Jose's OBP dropped to just .311 with the A's, and his OPS was .770 while in the American League. But, he struggled within the confines of Oakland, a problem he won't face so much next season. Guillen is also a standout defensively, almost enough so to justify the money spent in this acquisition. He also moves Tim Salmon to DH, a move that should helpfully increase Salmon's numbers, as well as the length of his career. The only thing left on the slate is a first basemen, as the team doesn't appear to be content with Shawn Wooten in the role. Both names that have been mentioned, Travis Lee and Rafael Palmiero, make sense, although I would think the former is more logical. Lee is Gold Glove-like at first, and his bat emerged in Tampa.

    The Angel team will take a new shape this weekend, when the team is forced to make non-tender decisions on Jarrod Washburn, Ben Weber, David Eckstein, and Shawn Wooten. Moreno is trying to make Angel fans forget about Gene Autry, and they should start opening up to him next year, when the Angels are submerged in battle with Oakland.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    I can only write so much without getting sick here. The ownership situation of the Dodgers isn't the publicized topic I thought it would be, but it's definitely a problem for Major League Baseball. First, FOX supposedly reached a deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneer owner Malcolm Glazer, and now with Frank McCourt. Either way, FOX is cutting its losses, and Dan Evans hasn't had the money he's used to and help baseball's worst offense in 2003.

    It all started with Juan Encarnacion, a move made during the Winter Meetings. I don't think Encarnacion will play well in Dodger Stadium, and Evans should end up looking like a fool for that. He's also saved money to spend in other places, although as I said yesterday, the big names are all gone. The team will probably look at Javy Lopez and Pudge Rodriguez, then either trading Lo Duca or moving him to first. The team saw Tejada and Kaz Matsui drive by at shortstop, all while the Dodgers were busy holding their breath for Nomar Garciaparra. Now it's time to move on, as Nomar appears locked in the cages of Fenway Park for one more season.

    The Dodgers will make an interesting decision in the coming days as well, regarding the tendering of Odalis Perez. Odalis has appeared in every trade rumor possible the last few seasons, but now no one is calling. And, the team has been left with seven starters. Wilson Alvarez signed a contract to stay yesterday, and he'll surely have a rotation slot. As will Hideo Nomo. So does Odalis, if he stays. And Jeff Weaver. And Kaz Ishii. In that scenario, Darren Dreifort would move to the bullpen, and Edwin Jackson to AAA. That likely is the best option, and it gives the team one helluva bullpen, again.

    Eric Gagne will be back in 2004, probably pitching as good as ever. His set-up man, Guillermo Mota, is likely to return as well. Paul Shuey, ace middle relief pitcher, is back, as is friend and LOOGY Tom Martin. Dreifort is set to join the bullpen, and assuming he doesn't hurt himself, his fastball/slider combination should be effective down there. Steve Colyer should be the second leftie, and the team will probably use one more player, maybe Duaner Sanchez, from the right side.

    Dan Evans has very little wiggle room, as he doesn't know how long his job will last when Frank McCourt takes over. The team currently would have an infield of Ventura, Cora, Izturis, and Beltre, assembling possibly the worst infield in the game. Evans must get rolling, and he must do so fast. He must investigate Vladimir Guerrero thoroughly, and should lack Rafael Palmiero up at any cost. Rich Aurilia wouldn't be terrible at short, and Todd Walker could be used at second. It's probably too little, too late for the Dodgers, and they will soon be asking fans to wait for the likes of Jackson, Greg Miller, and James Loney.

    Oakland A's

    It hasn't been long since I last wrote about Billy Beane's team, but they've already changed so much since. Beane has now found his closer, signing Arthur Rhodes to a three-year contract (worth $9.2M) late yesterday. He also acquired left-hander Chris Hammond from the Yankees, whom will join Ricardo Rincon from the left side. And, the team is high on Rule V pick Frank Brooks, also a leftie. But, it's these different philosophies that have worked before, so I'll wait to see the results this bullpen has before I criticize.

    Tuesday, Beane added soft-throwing leftie Mark Redman to a star-strapped rotation. This pushed Justin Duchscherer out of the picture, and makes top youngster Rich Harden the best fifth starter in the league. It also gives Beane a valuable bargaining chip midseason, when Joe Blanton or Duchscherer prove ready for rotation slots. Redman should succeed in Oakland, although the ERA should be slightly up from 3.59 next season.

    To clarify, I think Beane has a plan with this bullpen. Rhodes will close, and Moneyball hero Chad Bradford will pitch in relief. Chris Hammond will also be used as a reliever, as he actually showed a reverse platoon split last year. Expect Mike Remlinger and Hammond to follow similar path lines the rest of their careers. Anyway, Ricardo Rincon will be used to get tough lefties out, and Jim Mecir will be called on in groundball-needed situations. Duchscherer will make the team as a long reliever, possibly leaving a seventh spot open for Rule V pick Brooks. It ain't pretty, but I don't doubt that it will work.

    Same applies to the A's offensively, where Beane is putting everything on the line for this team. The team lacks a real catcher, although Damian Miller could be named an A within days. That would give the team a defensive leader, as well as an effective bottom of the order hitter. Beane is looking for more from personal choices like Erubiel Durazo, Bobby Kielty, and Mark Kotsay next year. He is praying for improvement from Eric Chavez and Jermaine Dye, and for development for Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby.

    But while this A team is no lock to win the division next year, I wouldn't advise anyone to bet against Zito-Hudson-Mulder-Harden-Redman.

    Have a good weekend, and I'll probably make a quick post before Monday concerning the non-tenders...

    WTNYDecember 18, 2003
    Previewing the Non-Tenders
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday was a really boring day for baseball. The everlasting A-Rod trade has more drama, as the player's union has stepped in to veto the deal. Bud Selig may override that decision, forcing an arbitrator to decide. I guess this is what happens when the best player in the Majors gets traded, huh? This weekend, teams will non-tender players, putting a whole new spin on the free agent market. So I figured since tomorrow might be dedicated to Rodriguez becoming a Red Sox player, that today would become a day to look over what's left on the free agent market, and what might be added when I check back on Monday.

    So, first, what is left on the current free agent market?

    Well, there is still a very recognizable front tier left. Vladimir Guerrero, the league's best free agent, is still technically a free agent, although anyone but the Orioles is a surprise at this point. The two catchers, Javy Lopez and Pudge Rodriguez, are also two big names left available. One of the two will join Guerrero in Baltimore, while the left out catcher will look to offers from the Cubs and the Dodgers. Greg Maddux is left over, and probably will be when the New Year hits. If the Padres really do sign Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes, the main suitor for Maddux's services will be thrown out the window. After that, only the Giants, Cubs, and possibly the Cardinals could make serious offers.

    The second tier is led by Sidney Ponson, too much of a questionable pitcher to be in the top foursome. Rumors of a torn labrum have brought down his market, and currently the right-hander is entertaining offers from the White Sox and Orioles. Both teams have him down on their priority list, so Ponson will be left as an open box on a to-do list for quite some time. Rafael Palmiero is a nice name for anyone to pick up, but like Ponson, he's not a high priority for any team. The Angels, Dodgers, and Orioles have all given consideration, and I would gamble on one of the West Coast teams landing the powerful Viagra sponsor. Next on my list is Arthur Rhodes, a player good enough to be given a whole column over at Aaron's Baseball Blog. Rhodes' agent says a three-year deal with the A's is imminent, but both sides are yet to close the door on that move. Until then, Rhodes will also be sought after by the Twins, White Sox, Braves, and Devil Rays.

    Ugueth Urbina, World Series hero, has likely been wowed by the lack of interest he's drawn. Many people just assume he will become a Met, a rumor I've been reporting since November. Juan Gonzalez is an interesting choice, but when he narrowed teams he'd like to play for at the trade deadline (AL team on grass), he also narrowed his offseason market. If the Royals manage this signing I'll be greatly impressed, or Juan Gone may consider trying right field in Shea Stadium for a season or two.

    Infield veterans Robbie Alomar and Rich Aurilia are big names, with Aurilia likely to be signed in the next week or so. My guess is the Blue Jays will sign Aurilia, leaving Alomar a spot that is still open with the Cardinals. As a Cubs fan, I promote that move will all my heart. Eric Karros had nice numbers last season, and absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. I mentioned him in yesterday's column associated with the Yankees, although I'm yet to hear those rumors. Todd Walker is considered to be one of the better hitters left, and he will be a Ranger is the A-Rod trade gets completed.

    On the pitching side, Wilson Alvarez is a great name that no one is considering. The Padres toyed with the notion of picking up the left-hander for awhile, but apparently have decided on Sterling Hitchcock instead. After Alvarez the next most interesting starter would be Pedro Astacio, whom I read will give a tryout in January to tempt teams. As will Maels Rodriguez, the Cuban star, whom has defected. He will get a signficant amount of money, no doubt, but where? There are still interesting relief options like Jeff Nelson, who was given a bad rap, almost undeservadly.

    10 other remaining free agents that have caught my eye:

    - Travis Lee (1B)- Gives Gold Glove-caliber defense, and bounced back last year from an offensive standpoint. Might be a good fit for the Angels, assuming they lose out on Palmiero.
    - Raul Mondesi (OF)- Jerk in the clubhouse, underachiever on the field. But, one helluva arm, a powerful bat, and a little bit of speed. And this guy hasn't been jumped on by the Mets?
    - Ellis Burks (DH)- Will hit wherever he ends up, although health is always a risk. Any team looking for a DH should consider Burks, who will probably just end up with some platoon job somewhere.
    - Eric Young (2B/CF)- Added power dimension to his game last year, although speed calling card has slightly diminished. Good clubhouse guy, should get a job somewhere.
    - Jeromy Burnitz (OF)- Waiting for a starting job offer somewhere, and Colorado may be interested. Would be an interesting option off the bench if he goes in that direction.

    - Armando Benitez (RH)- Has been given lots of bad press in the past, but Benetiz is an asset if used primarily against right-handers.
    - Terry Adams (RH)- Had arm surgery over the winter, but was one of the most effective middle relievers in baseball last season.
    - Kent Mercker (LH)- My sleeper choice a year ago panned out, but seems to once again find himself under the radar.
    - Antoino Osuna (RH)- When New York fans turn on you, it's hard to find a job. Will get one eventually, and should maintain fairly solid stats.
    - Julian Tavarez (RH)- Psycho, but really thrived when given the Pittsburgh closer job last season. A team like the Devil Rays couldn't lose with this guy.

    Now, who will become a free agent on December 20? Using rumors I've heard, along with a list of arbitration-eligibles available at CBS Sportsline, here's some names I've come up with.

    First, here is a list of players I'm pretty confident will get non-tendered, unless their respective team can sign them before the deadline hits (listed alphabetically)...

    Marlon Anderson- IF
    Rod Barajas- C
    Freddy Garcia- RHP
    Luther Hackman- RHP
    Jerry Hairston- 2B
    Orlando Hernandez- RHP
    Adam Kennedy- 2B
    Frank Menechino- IF
    Damian Moss- LHP
    Tomo Ohka- RHP
    Jay Payton- OF
    Ruben Quevado- RHP
    Dennys Reyes- LHP
    Scott Sauerbeck- LHP
    Randall Simon- 1B
    Scott Stewart- LHP
    Luis Vizcaino- RHP
    Shawn Wooten- DH

    No huge names, although I believe that Garcia and Payton will command some attention. There are also a group of questions I have, that could add to that list considerably...

    Doug Mientkiewicz?
    Scott Williamson?
    Jason Johnson?
    Carlos Lee?
    Darrell May?
    Carl Pavano or Brad Penny?
    WIll it be Bako or Barrett?
    Will it be Delucci or Karim Garcia?

    All those names are interesting to consider, and given some set of happenings, could become non-tenders this year. There will also be some players you could care less about, but I think I landed most of the people correctly. We'll double check my work on Monday. A few news and notes:

    - You have to agree with Rob Neyer in his piece about Omar Vizquel. As hard as Bill Bavasi tried to further worsen the Mariners, Vizquel's knees just wouldn't let it happen. Mark Shapiro almost got a fast one by the new GM.

    - I didn't get to the Mark Redman for Mike Neu trade yesterday. It's always nice when you can turn a Rule V pick into a good piece of trade bait, as Beane has done with Neu. Redman's numbers shouldn't change much moving from Pro Player to the Coliseum, and he's very similar to Ted Lilly. Interestingly enough, it pushes Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year Justin Duchscherer to the bullpen, or back to Sacramento.

    - The Tigers signed Al Levine, meaning that Danny Patterson, Matt Anderson, and Al Levine will all be in the Tiger bullpen next season. This is going to be one ugly team, but Levine should break through as one of the bright spots.

    - One of the main reasons Shawn Chacon is being moved to closer in Colorado is his shoulder. The Rockies are concerned about injury there, although I do question the motives of losing your best starter to the bullpen. Aaron Cook would have made just as much sense. If they are trying to follow the Dodgers model with Gagne, they are going to be rudely awakened.

    - The Raindrops, one of my favorite blogs on the Internet, has moved from Blogger to weblogs.us. Head over to his brand new address, http://theraindrops.weblogs.us, and send him a hello. Also, Christian Ruzich has a nice interview of Dave Kaval, the man behind the scenes of the Golden Baseball League, an independent league similar to the Atlantic League of the Northwest. Some interesting stuff.

    That's all for today, but if the A-Rod deal goes through, check back for very thorough analysis tomorrow.

    WTNYDecember 17, 2003
    Repeat?
    By Bryan Smith

    As promised, today I am going to be looking at the progress that last season's division winners have made during this offseason. I will likely step over a lot of the same ground that Ben Jacobs did in this post, and I apologize for that. The 2004 offseason has defnitely been East-heavy, although I think it's more important to keep things relative to their division than to break it up by League. So, here are my breakdowns of six Major League teams, where they've been, and where they're headed...

    San Francisco Giants

    The Giants have been active this offseason, as Brian Sabean has needed creativity to reconstruct a team with minimal resources. He started that at catcher, virtually replacing Benito Santiago with A.J. Pierzynski. Here are the stats of those two last season:

    Santiago: .279/.329/.424 56 RBI in 401AB
    Pierzynski: .312/.360/.464 74RBI in 487AB

    That is a significant upgrade, and should help make up the loss the team is going to suffer at shortstop. Arbitration was not offered to Rich Aurilia, whose .277/.325/.410 is less than exciting. But those numbers look like Barry Bonds' when you put them up against Aurilia's likely replacement, Neifi Perez (.256/.285/.348). It's hard to say that those two positions come out a wash, but Sabean didn't stop looking for improvements. Although Gold Glove winner Jose Cruz Jr. is gone, consider the production of Giants' RF last season:

    RF: .244/.344/.395 in 582AB

    So, Sabean re-signed Jeffrey Hammonds, picked up Michael Tucker, and most recently traded to newfound friend Terry Ryan for Dustan Mohr. Let's look at the numbers from those three:

    Tucker: .262/.331/.440 in 389AB
    Hammonds: .242/.329/.424 in 132AB
    Mohr: .250/.314/.399 in 348AB

    My guess is that Tucker will play the position against right-handers (.274/.342/.474), Mohr will play vs. southpaws (.265/.348/.453), and Hammonds will be used as a fourth outfield/defensive replacement type. That should produce a rough outcome of .270/.345/.460 in right field, far surpassing the mark that Jose Cruz and company set last year.

    Sabean is also banking that 2003 disappointments Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo bounce back and have healthy and consistent 2004s. Durham bounced back from a lack of an August to have a nice final month (.297/.350/.514), and Alfonzo showed nice improvements in the second half (.296/.372/.474). Also, can surprises Barry Bonds (.341/.529/.749), J.T. Snow (.273/.387/.418), and Marquis Grissom (.300/.322/.468)

    Here's an overview of a Giant offense that should be equal to the 2003 version:

    C- A.J. Pierzynski
    1B- J.T. Snow
    2B- Ray Durham
    SS- Neifi Perez
    3B- Edgardo Alfonzo
    LF- Barry Bonds
    CF- Marquis Grissom
    RF- Michael Tucker

    Bench: Yorvit Torrealba (C), Pedro Feliz (1B/3B), Cody Ransom (SS), Jeffrey Hammonds (OF), Dustan Mohr (OF)

    While the offense doesn't need much work (maybe replacing Ransom?), Sabean does have an open hole in his pitching staff. Currently, the team has Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, and Jerome Williams to start their rotation. The team is looking to depend on those three horses for more than the 77 starts they posted last year, to help bridge the gap for the losses of Damian Moss, Kurt Ainsworth, and Sidney Ponson.

    Sabean brought back Dustin Hermanson to fill the fifth slot, but the team is looking to fill the fourth spot in their rotation currently. Shane Reynolds has been a hot rumor this week, and as I suggested in their offseason preview, the Giants will pursue Greg Maddux if he drops into the $5-7M range. Jesse Foppert will be lost for the season with an arm injury, and Kevin Correia is going to have to pitch very well at AAA to unseat Hermanson. For now, it looks like Jim Brower and Ryan Jensen will be lost to the bullpen.

    Speaking of, the bullpen has seen its top two workhorses, Tim Worrell and Joe Nathan, leave San Francisco this offseason. The two pitched in a combined 154 games last season, and only one other reliever appeared in seventy games (Scott Eyre). To replace Worrell will be a healthy Robb Nen, whom will return to his closing role with questions surrounding him. Felix Rodriguez will continue to close, and Matt Herges, along with Brower and Jensen, should complete the right-handed side of the bullpen. Eyre will be the top leftie, and I imagine the expensive Jason Christenson will make the team as well. With Worrell and Nathan, the team is losing more than one hundred and fifty innings of under 3.00 pitching. Can Nen and Herges make up for the losses?

    The Giants pitching staff:

    Rotation: Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, Jerome Williams, Dustin Hermanson
    Bullpen: Robb Nen, Felix Rodriguez, Scott Eyre, Matt Herges, Jason Christenson, Jim Brower, Ryan Jensen

    In conclusion, the Giants have taken a miniscule step back this offseason, but it could have been a lot worse considering the substantial drop in payroll. The team will be in the hunt again next season, but this time don't expect the division to be locked up by the All-Star Break.

    Chicago Cubs

    Five outs. The number still hurts for Cubs fans to think about, but it also breeds optimism for the 2004 season. They were so close last year, an Alex Gonzalez grounder away, but lost. Redemption will be in the minds of players, a trait Jim Hendry has used so far this offseason. Hendry has been quick and efficient to amend the Cubs' issues, making bold, sometimes questioned moves. But no one questions Hendry's motives: to bring a World Series to the north side for the first time in 95 years.

    To do so, Hendry first realized he must fix an offense that ranked among the worst in baseball last season. Consider the following:

    Choice A: .276/.349/.469 in 608AB
    Choice B: .271/.379/.508 in 539AB

    You would take the second option, right? Well Hendry did, already having acquired choice B, and lose the A players (Karros, Choi, Simon). Lee will bring speed, defense, and even more power to an offense in desperate need of it. Also, consider this:

    Choice A: .272/.324/.465 in 607AB
    Choice B: .230/.302/.377 in 592AB

    The first one is the obvious choice, and the numbers that Aramis Ramirez would bring in a fullseason. Second was what Cubs third basemen actually did, although the numbers were boosted with Ramirez having 232 .259/.311/.491 at-bats. And while I won't get into the catching situation, it's hard to imagine any situation where the combination of Damian Miller, Paul Bako, and Michael Barrett couldn't best the .229/.309/.351 that Miller and Bako combined for last season.

    So, I think what my demonstration has proven is that the Cub offense should be a much larger threat next season, not costing the team victories and lapses of confidence. Here, again, is the Cub team:

    C- Barrett
    1B- Lee
    2B- Grudzilanek
    SS- Gonzalez
    3B- Ramirez
    LF- Alou
    CF- Patterson
    RF- Sosa

    Bench: Miller/Bako (C), Martinez (IF), Goodwin (OF)

    The Cub pitching staff was sensational in 2003, as the starters combined for a 3.69ERA despite the ugly numbers that Shawn Estes (5.70) put up. Estes is gone, and the team is looking for Matt Clement to regress to his 2003 numbers and become one of the league's premier pitchers once again. Whether it is Juan Cruz or another pitcher in the fifth slot remains to be seen, but it's common thought around Cub fans that it can't possibly get worse than Estes in 2004, and we all expect that starter ERA to drop below 3.50 next year.

    Another important flaw of the 2003 version was middle relief. While Borowski, Farnsworth, and Remlinger were quite sufficient to end games, the problem was bridging the starters and those three. And what about when Farns or Rem need a day off. Look at the numbers of a trio of Cub relievers last season:

    7-5 4.64ERA 152H/141.2IP 101K/54BB

    While these aren't Estes-horrific, the combination of Mark Guthrie, Antonio Alfonseca, and Dave Veres was pretty bad last season. The team has already got LaTroy Hawkins to fill one of those spots, and Hawkins is one of the best right-handed set-up men in the game today. And while the team hasn't named the other two quite yet, it won't be hard to find a pair of relievers that bad, at any cost.

    Chicago's offseason is hardly over, as Hendry must fill a bench, rotation, and bullpen still. But the thought is that he can't do any worse than last year, and when paired with the core of players this team already has, Chicago becomes the National League favorites in 2004.

    Atlanta Braves

    Never say die. I've learned to not question John Scheurholtz's motives until the season starts the last few years, but every offseason I end up doubting if the run of divisional championships can continue. Will that thought corrupt my mind the rest of this offseason? Yes. It will be difficult for me to choose any other team than the Phillies in March, but I will at least give Schuerholtz and Cox until then to sway my opinion.

    Here is the cumulative output of four players last season on the Atlanta Braves roster:

    600H/1984AB (.302BA) 115HR 397RBI 332R 183BB 278K

    Those are the combined numbers for the four free agents the Braves have lost from their starting lineup last season, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla, and Rob Fick. What do those numbers prove? Well, this should help put it into context, the following numbers are the percentage that these four made for the Atlanta offense last year:

    H: 37.3%
    R: 36.6%
    HR: 48.9%
    RBI: 45.5%
    BB: 33.6%

    These four players made up for more than a third of the Braves hits, runs and walks last season, and nearly accounted for HALF of the total homers and runs batted in. Who replaces them? How does Johnny Estrada, Adam LaRoche, Mark DeRosa, and J.D. Drew sound? Less than enthusiastic? You should be.

    My thought was well, if the offense is going to worsen so much, surely the team will combat that with improvements in pitching, right? Not so fast.

    Player A: 16-11 3.96 225/218.1 124/33
    Player B: 13-14 4.85 234/217 136/49

    Player A is the choice, although a large part of that decision is ERA. Greg Maddux has been a mainstay in the Atlanta rotation for a long time, but Scheurholtz chose the more economical choice B, John Thomson. While Thomson has room to grow into a solid third starter, we're hardly talking about Maddux Jr. I think Brave optimism should breed from Mike Hampton's second half, one that saw the leftie go 9-3, with a 2.91ERA. Could Hampton be back to the New York Met version of himself? Tune into TBS next season to find out.

    John Smoltz saw a lack of support in the bullpen last season, especially from highly esteemed veterans Roberto Hernandez and Darren Holmes. Ray King had a decent season, although he was included in part of the package to acquire J.D. Drew. The team will replace Hernandez and Holmes with Jaret Wright and Will Cunnane next season, an inexpensive gamble that Scheurholtz is gambling a lot on. He's yet to name the left-hander, but rumors are surfacing that Arthur Rhodes will become Bobby Cox' favorite southpaw.

    Atlanta's run is in more than jeopardy for next season, it's in doubt. Regardless, Scheurholtz is best managing his assets to build a good ballclub, and Atlanta fans should just bath in the fact that they aren't the Mets next season...that should be enough.

    Oakland A's

    While Billy Beane is still a favorite among most of my readers, it's time to accept the man is hardly a perfect General Manager. In fact, he was one of the major losers of the Winter Meetings, although even Sean McAdam was afraid to admit so in an ESPN article yesterday. Beane lost out on top two choices Keith Foulke and Mike Cameron, left to search for other options.

    When your team begins with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, and Rich Harden, you're going to be good. Damn good. Harden's arm wore down a little last season, but if you sit and wonder what the 2004 season will bring him, a 3.50 ERA sounds pretty nice. Especially as a fourth starter. Hell, you'd think we were talking about my Cubbies here. And whether the fifth starter is Justin Duchscherer or the hot rumor of Mark Redman, the rotation is the strength to this team.

    Next, is the bullpen. While Moneyball describes just how fungible relievers truely are, this offseason will truly be a test to that theory. With the best closer off the market, with few available on the block, can Beane create another forty save player? I don't know. Keith Foulke was the most valuable non-big 3 player the A's had last season, arguably the most important of all. He added 87 innings of 2.08 ball, and closed the door on 43 games. Here is a good description of Foulke's importance:

    A's Bullpen in '03: 29-14 3.65 381/423.2 308/177
    W/o Foulke in '03: 20-13 4.06 324/337 220/157

    With Foulke, the A's bullpen is very good last season, but without him, they're merely adequate. Look at the K/BB rates after he leaves, along with the signficant rise in ERA. If he turns the 2004 bullpen to the '03 version, than I'll stop giving Beane so much flak. Right now, we know the 2004 bullpen has Chad Bradford, Jim Mecir, Mike Neu, Ricardo Rincon, and Rule V pick Frank Brooks. The club will sign someone to fill the closer spot, and expect Chad Harville, Jeremy Fikac, and Mike Wood to all battle out that last spot. No, there won't be any 3.65ERA this year.

    Also, isn't it ironic that a Billy Beane team could only manage to post a .327OBP in a season. Well, that's what happened in 2003, when Beane's team struggled offensively, only scoring a total of 768 runs, or 4.74 runs a game. Granted, this offseason we've seen the loss of some of Beane's least favorite players, the group of Miguel Tejada, Terrence Long, Ramon Hernandez, Chris Singleton, and Jose Guillen.

    Last year those five had 2081 at-bats with the A's, roughly 37.9% of the team's at-bats. In that time, these five players, including a former MVP, posted a .313OBP. Meaning, in nearly 40% of the A's at-bats, their on-base clip was depressing. Then, throw in the .261 figure posted by Jermaine Dye, that has to go up, and there is some optimism. To replace the aforementioned five, Billy Beane will likely use Adam Melhuse (.372), Bobby Crosby (.395 in AAA), Mark Kotsay (.343) , and Bobby Kielty (.358). Yes, I believe the offense will improve next year.

    Here, should be the Opening Day lineup of the 2004 Oakland A's:

    1. Mark Kotsay- CF
    2. Scott Hatteberg- 1B
    3. Eric Chavez- 3B
    4. Erubiel Durazo- DH
    5. Jermaine Dye- RF
    6. Bobby Kielty- LF
    7. Bobby Crosby- SS
    8. Adam Melhuse- C
    9. Mark Ellis- 2B

    While that ain't top five, it's an improvement from last year. Given the right choice at closer, Billy Beane's intellect will end up battling Arte Moreno's pocketbook for the AL West title. And Mariner fans? I'm really sorry about that Bavasi choice.

    Minnesota Twins

    I'm really starting to get discouraged with Terry Ryan, and I'm not even a Twins fan. The man promises changes, vows to go after Hawkins, Eddie Guardado, and Shannon Stewart. To do so, he needs to trade Pierzynski and Eric Milton. Uh-oh, only Shannon Stewart re-signs. Now, the team has been left with a depleted rotation, bullpen, and a lineup that Earl Weaver couldn't decide among.

    The Twins have two questions to answer in the coming weeks: do we trade/non-tender Doug Mientkiewicz? And, what should we ask for Jacque Jones? Me? I would trade both. I would have, and would, attempt to talk the Expos into taking Christian Guzman, and maybe a prospect or two, for Orlando Cabrera. I would send Mientkiewicz to Atlanta, trade Jones to San Diego. In exchange, ask for pitching, pitching, and some more pitching.

    In the end, I fully expect the Twins to hold onto Mientkiewicz, and trade Jones. That will be Justin Morneau somewhere, although I'm not quite sure where. If my gut feeling is right, this is the Twins lineup:

    1. Shannon Stewart- LF
    2. Luis Rivas- 2B
    3. Corey Koskie- 3B
    4. Matt LeCroy- DH
    5. Doug Mientkiewicz- 1B
    6. Torii Hunter- CF
    7. Cuddyer/Restovich- RF
    8. Joe Mauer- C
    9. Christian Guzman- SS

    Hardly a bad lineup, in fact, it's a pretty good one. Does it beat Santiago, Sweeney, Graffanino, Berrora, Randa, Stairs, Beltran, Guiel, and Harvey? Probably not.

    Last season, the foursome of Kenny Rogers, Rick Reed, Joe Mays, and Eric Milton combined to make 76 starts for the Twins. Roughly half of the time, those four pitchers were being used by the Twins. Now, their combined ERA was above 5.00, so inotherwords, the Twins have suffered from addition by subtraction this offseason. They will use Grant Balfour in one of these rotation spots, and Ryan should really find someone to fill the final slot behind Santana, Radke, Lohse, and Balfour.

    While the bullpen lost horses Guardado and Hawkins, they got back Hawkins' replacement in Joe Nathan. Nathan was the best reliever in baseball against right-handers last season, so him and J.C. Romero could make a mean tandem in set-up for someone. The question though, is who? Aaron Gleeman supports Arthur Rhodes, and the Twins have placed a call into Rhodes' agent. The rest of the bullpen shoud include Juan Rincon, Carlos Pulido, and Mike Nakamura.

    In a perfect world, Twins fans would have read this during the Winter Meetings:

    - Twins trade Boof Bonser and Christian Guzman to Expos for Orlando Cabrera
    - Twins trade Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz to Angels for Troy Percival
    - Twins sign Ismael Valdes

    No, no, no. It's all part of Terry Ryan's plan to become the next Stand Pat Gillick.

    New York Yankees

    A look into the 2003 Yankees:

    Yankees '03 3B: .242/.316/.386 in 591AB
    Yankees '03 RF: .256/.317/.465 in 589AB
    Nick Johnson: .284/.422/.472 in 324AB

    Clemens+Pettite: 38-17 3.96 426/420 370/108
    Weaver+Contreras: 13-10 4.78 230/205.1 140/62

    Osuna: 48G 3.73 58/50.2 47/20
    Acevedo+Nelson+Anderson: 71G 5.91 74/64 49/34
    Non-Hammond/Hitchcock LH: 51G 4.28 36/40 15/17
    Hitchcock/Weaver/Conteras: 43G 6.55 85/68.2 58/43

    To clarify, the Weaver+Contreras is how they did in the rotation, the "non-Hammond/Hitchcock LH" division is the LOOGYs the team used that weren't Chris Hammond (there were 5), and the "Hitchcock/Weaver/Contreras" was those three's combined numbers being used in long relief. Now, here will be the men that fill those roles this coming season:

    Aaron Boone
    Gary Sheffield
    Kenny Lofton/?

    Brown+Vazquez
    Contreras

    Gordon
    Quantrill
    Heredia
    Lieber

    There is little question left, and the team still needs to sign a right-handed corner infielder to play first against southpaws, during which Bernie will play center, and Giambi will DH. An example of that player is Eric Karros, a good clubhouse guy that kills lefties (.366/.441/.545 last year). So, all those players represent significant improvements in my mind, meaning the Yankees will be a helluva lot better next year than they were this year.

    Even with Boston completiting the Alex Rodriguez trade, ESPN says it will become official today, I don't think they can be in the Yankees league next season. This team is too good, and while they appeared to be lacking direction at times, it will all come together to form a solid group. The only things left on this team's agenda are re-signing David Wells, and picking up a guy like Karros.

    I'll be back tomorrow, and the A-Rod deal will probably be the topic of discussion. Until next time...

    WTNYDecember 16, 2003
    Ruling on the Rule V
    By Bryan Smith

    Sadly, we saw the very end of the Winter Meetings yesterday, which finished with one of my favorite yearly events, the Rule V draft. Johan Santana is probably the best player to come through the draft, and there were numerous pitchers who made a difference last season. Here is a look at every player drafted, their stats, and whether they will stick with their brand new team.

    Detroit- Chris Shelton (C/1B)
    2001: .305-2-33 in 174 SS AB
    2002: .340-17-65 in 332 A- AB
    2003: .359-21-69 in 315 A+ AB
    .279-0-14 in 122 AA AB

    Info: Shelton is a former 33rd-round pick of the Pirates, an example of the 'bad body, big bat' type player that some teams love. Shelton supposedly plays catcher, but he doesn't do it very well. The obvious comparison is Matt LeCroy, although LeCroy didn't even approach those numbers in the minor leagues.

    Chance of Staying: The Tigers will give every chance for Shelton to make their team as a 3rd catcher, right-handed bat off the bench, and likely the 13th or 14th hitter Alan Trammell picks. His staying will largely depend on how well he can his left-handers, which will allow Trammell to bench Carlos Pena on those days. Shelton may not be Major League-caliber quite yet, but a year learning Major League southpaws likely wouldn't deter his career.

    Kansas City- Rich Thompson (OF)- TRADE
    2001: .311-1-60 in 454 A+ AB.
    2002: .280-2-44 in 554 AA AB (45/58 SB)
    2003: 276-0-18 in 221 AAA AB
    .313-0-9 in 182 AA AB (48/55 SB)

    Info: Kansas City traded cash to move up and choose Thompson, a high-OBP, high speed outfielder whom is very good defensively. Thompson relies on speed, and has nearly stolen 100 bases the last two seasons. His walk numbers and very close to his strikeout rates, and he's nearly ready for the Majors.

    Chance of Staying: Thompson has a relatively good chance of staying as prospects David DeJesus and Alexis Gomez need more refining at AAA. If so, Thompson will be the 5th outfielder, and come into games for defensive purposes, as well as for pinch running. If used effectively, Thomspon could be better than Jason Tyner, although I see them heading down the same path.

    Tampa Bay- Alec Zumwalt (RHP)
    2002: 4.31 39/39.2 34/16 in A-
    8.63 33/24 21/13 in A+
    2003: 2.22 29/44.2 43/16 in A+
    1.42 13/19 19/12 in AA

    Info: While Zumwalt's career started with a bat, he is learning the art of pitching very well, and his Arizona Fall League performance impressed Tampa Bay scouts. Zumwalt throws in the low-90s, and isn't considered to have a 2nd real pitch. I don't think he's the best Atlanta choice, but he does have the highest upside.

    Chance of Staying: With the Devil Rays, Zumwalt will try to become the 5th right-handed reliever, a job he may be handed by Lou Pinella. I don't think he's ready for the Majors quite yet, so I fully expect the Braves to get his arm back at some point during the season. But, there is an outside chance that Zumwalt produces, and has a season a la Aquilino Lopez in Toronto.

    Oakland- Frank Brooks (LHP)- TRADE
    2001: 4.71 113/112.2 92/58 in A+
    2002: 3.46 34/39 33/27 in A+
    3.10 29/29 23/12 in AA
    2003: 2.30 40/58.2 71/13 in AA
    2.54 22/28.1 22/11 in AAA

    Info: Probably the safest choice in the draft, Brooks was traded to the Pirates last trade deadline, as the Phillies acquired Mike Williams from the Bucs. Brooks was the first southpaw drafted, and his claim to fame is a slurvy breaking ball that is a killer on lefties. He won't be the first to break 90 mph, but he'll change speeds, and has been more effective in each season.

    Chance of Staying: As good as anyone in the draft. Brooks has proven himself at every level, and is ready to be a LOOGY, and second leftie in a bullpen. The A's are working to sign Ricardo Rincon, but they will then use Brooks as their second southpaw out of the bullpen. Brooks should succeed more than anyone else next season, and Billy Beane scores two points on this trade.

    Milwaukee- Jeff Bennett (RHP)
    2001: 11-10 3.42 171/166 98K in A+
    2002: 10-3 3.62 137/124.1 90/30 in A+
    2003: 2.72 45/59.2 62/23 in AA
    6.56 26/23.1 16/12 in AAA

    Info: I really question this pick, but it was supposedly made under the notion that Bennett's newly found 95 mph heater wouldn't desert him anytime soon. Baseball America says there are rumors about a sore shoulder, leading explanations of a significant drop off at the AAA level.

    Chance of Staying: He won't. Milwaukee really wasted this pick, and was a lot better off giving the money to me. What do they have to gain from choosing this player that they won't from a Buddy Hernandez or Ty Howington? Doug Melvin has done some nice work in the minor league department this offseason, landing gems like Travis Phelps and Trent Durrington, but I'm less than impressed with this pick.

    Baltimore- Jose Bautista (3B)
    2001: .286-5-30 in 220 SS AB
    2002: .301-14-57 in 438 A- AB
    2003: .242-4-20 in 165 A+ AB

    Info: High upside, but hardly ready for the Major Leagues. Baustista was a top-ten prospect a year ago, but after breaking his hand in frustration, was limited to 165 AB this year.

    Chance of Staying: There is no way that Bautista stays. He should be getting pushed back to high-A next season, but definitely not back to Lynchburg. The Orioles may try at acquiring the rights for Bautista, but otherwise, this is a wasted pick. Next...

    Cincinnati- David Mattox (RHP)
    2001: 5-1 2.41 48/56 58/19 in AZL
    2002: 8-2 3.55 78/91.1 92/42 in A-
    4-4 2.82 46/51 34/24 in A+
    2003: 8-7 3.49 103/113.1 86/40 in AA

    Info: Could end up being special, as Mattox is still learning the art to his trade after converting from the infield during college. He was the first starter taken, which makes a lot of sense when considering how bad the Reds' staff is. Josh Boyd of Baseball America says that he "operates with four quality pitches," the best of which is a change up.

    Chance of Staying: I think the Reds will keep onto Mattox, likely handing him a long relief job out of Spring Training. This choice could really prove to pay off, and my guess is that Mattox is being tried in the rotation as early as Matt Ford and Wil Ledezma were a year ago.

    Texas- Chris Mabeus (RHP)
    2001: 2-5 4.80 75/62 28/18 in NWL
    2002: 4.04 97/84.2 69/32 in A+
    2003: 1.52 19/23.2 30/6 in A+
    3.52 37/38.1 40/9 in AA

    Info: Grady Fuson once again looked back into his old franchise for this pick, Mabeus helped his case showcasing a good fastball in the AFL. He may not be ready for the Major Leagues, but the Rangers are banking that a mid-90s fastball supercedes that.

    Chance of Staying: Little, but when considering how bad the Rangers bullpen is, possible. Mabeus must really pitch well in Spring Training to make the team, but my guess is that Texas gives Oakland a player or money for his rights.

    Colorado- Matt White (LHP)
    2001: 8-10 4.81 151/144 72/60 in AA
    2002: 3.93 97/89.1 63/39 in AA
    2003: 1.97 37/45.2 39/16 in AAA

    Info: The Red Sox chose White in the Rule V draft a year ago, and actually preferred him to fellow choice Javier Lopez, whom they shipped to Colorado. Lopez went on to have a great season with the Rockies, while injuries seriously hampered White's development, who gave up 14 earned runs in about five innings. He was then traded to the Mariners, and finally given back to the Indians. A nice fastball/curveball combo makes him an attractive option.

    Chance of Staying: Doubtful. White will either have to outperform Brian Fuentes and/or Javy Lopez (again) to stay, or convince Clint Hurdle to keep three southpaws. He may be a player, but I don't think the Rockies were the right team to make this choice.

    San Diego- Jason Szuminski (RHP)
    2001: 6.44 56/36.1 22/17 in A-
    2002: 5.12 95/91.1 53/41 in A+
    2003: 3.65 29/24.2 23/9 in A+
    2.26 51/59.2 45/19 in AA

    Info: A former MIT graduate, Szuminski finally saw the light after years of struggling in the Cubs' organization. Szuminski flew through three levels last season, and is arguably ready for the Major Leagues. A high-90s sinking fastball makes him a groundball pitcher, and the Padres traded the rights of Rich Thompson for Szuminski.

    Chance of Staying: Very possible. The Padres will surely give Hoffman, Beck, Otsuka, and Linebrink jobs in the bullpen, but Szuminski will likely battle with Brandon Villafuerte for the team's 25th slot. Szuminski is a very likely choice to be the next Luis Ayala, but he'll need to have a very good March.

    Montreal- Andy Fox (IF)
    2001: .185/.327/.321 3HR in 81 FLA AB
    2002: .251/.338/.333 4HR 31SB in 435 FLA AB
    2003: .194/.269/.259 0HR in 108 FLA AB

    Info: Fox has a long Major League career, mostly used as a utility infielder with the Rangers and Marlins. He re-signed a minor league contract, but the Expos found a way to get a cheap infielder, finding a nice loophole. Andy had a full-time job in 2002 when Alex Gonzalez got hurt, and didn't disappoint stealing 31 bases during the season.

    Chance of Staying: Almost 100%. The Expos have found their middle infield bench option, and Fox isn't the worst choice they could have come up with. His veteran influence will surely be appreciated.

    Toronto- Talley Haines (RHP)
    2001: 3.63 73/72 73/29 in AA
    2002: 4.52 84/75.2 62/24 in AAA
    2003: 2.53 57/67.2 64/11 in AAA

    Info: Haines name will never come up in prospect lists, and he wasn't mentioned in possible Rule V choices. He's always had good control, but other than a good splitter, he lacks great pitch selections.

    Chance of Staying: Plausible. The team likes Rule V choices, but Haines doesn't bring much to the table. If his splitter proves to be great and his fastball improves, he's a lock. If not, Carlos Tosca will look in another direction.

    Chicago (AL)- Jason Grilli (RHP)
    2001: 1-2 4.02 46/47 35/20 in AAA
    2-2 6.07 30/26.2 17/11 in MLB
    2002: 5.2 AAA IP
    2003: 4-2 2.53 38/42.2 30/6 in A+
    6-2 3.37 64/66.2 38/30 in AAA

    Info: Grilli was the 4th overall selection in the 1997 Amateur Draft, but a trade and arm injuries have led to a downfall. Last year was his first season back from injury, and reports have it that his stuff is back. If so, why such low K ratings?

    Chance of Staying: Ozzie Guillen likely saw Grilli in Florida, and he'll give him a long look in Spring Training this season. He won't win the 5th starting spot for sure, but I see him as an equal option to Matt Ginter, with a considerable amount of upside. Spending the year as a long reliever really couldn't hurt.

    St. Louis- Hector Luna (SS)
    2001: .266-6-23 15SB in 241 A- AB
    2002: .276-11-51 32SB in 468 A+ AB
    2003: .297-2-38 17SB in 462 AA AB

    Info: This is the second straight year Luna gets drafted, but he failed to make the Devil Rays a year ago. He lacks skills defensively, but has speed and a little bit of power in his bat. He really isn't Major League caliber, but has just enough skills to tempt the guys that make these decisions.

    Chance of Staying: Luna will battle with Brent Butler for the middle infield bench spot next Spring Training, and he probably isn't ready for another Major League job.

    Boston- Lenny Dinardo (LHP)
    2001: 1-2 2.00 26/36 40/17 in SS
    2002: 5-5 4.35 106/101.1 103/56 in A-
    2003: 3-8 2.01 64/85 93/14 in A+
    1-3 3.60 35/40 36/13 in AA

    Info: Dinardo throws as slow as anyone in this draft, but he still manages to show nice strikeout rates during his career. He's yet to relieve consistently, but the Red Sox think his cutter might be good enough to handle the role.

    Chance of Staying: Dinardo has a chance, but it appears to be a slim one. Theo Epstein appears content to giving the second leftie to some mix of Tim Hamulack, Dinardo, and recent waiver claim Mark Malaska. The latter is the favorite to win the job, and don't be shocked if Epstein throws another name into the list.

    Houston- Willy Tavares (OF)
    2001: .271-3-32 29SB in 395 A- AB
    2002: .265-4-27 54SB in 313 A- AB
    2003: .282-2-35 57SB in 397 A+ AB

    Info: Tavares has as much potential as anyone in the draft, and these types of players usually flame out quickly in the Majors. He has speed and defense on his side, but riding the bench surely won't help him develop as a hitter.

    Chance of Staying: I think that Tavares will make the team out of Spring Training, he won't spend the year with Houston. Expect Tavares to be spending time as an Akron Aero next year.

    Detroit- Mike Bumatay (LHP)
    2001: 2.73 20/26.1 31/8 in A-
    7.27 55/43.1 40/26 in A+
    2002: 3.24 50/66.2 79/31 in A+
    2003: 2.60 42/55.1 69/29 in AA

    Info: I thought the Tigers would pick Ty Howington with this choice, but they went with the more Major League-ready Bumatay. Left-handers hit a disastrous .136 off Bumatay last year, thanks to a three-quarters breaking ball.

    Chance of Staying: Pretty good. With Jamie Walker and Bumatay, it's very possible the Tigers best asset next year will be their left-handed relief. With Shelton and Bumatay, Dambrowski hasn't done badly for himself.

    Colorado- Luis Gonzalez (UT)
    2003: .318-7-62 46BB/41K in 431 AA AB

    Info: Couldn't get any info past this season about Gonzalez, a super-utility player that walks more than he strikes out. He will be a nice 14th man, but that's really the only choice.

    Chance of Staying: As I said, it will probably between keeping Gonzalez, and carrying 7 pitchers. If you play in Coors, the choice usually tends to be to carry seven pitchers. We'll see what Hurdle does, but don't bank on Gonzalez.

    Boston- Colter Bean (RHP)
    2001: 1.46 27/49.1 77/18 in A+
    2002: 1.98 34/54.2 78/21 in A+
    2003: 2.87 53/69 70/27 in AAA

    Info: Theo Epstein likely added insult to injury stealing the hefty Bean away from the Yankees in the second round. I wonder, do the Yankees even know a Rule V draft exists? Anyway, Bean is an effective right-handed reliever that uses a submarine type delivery to drive right-handers crazy.

    Chance of Staying: Will get his chance to beat Ramiro Mendoza, and if he can't do that, he really doesn't deserve a spot. But it's not like these two teams will come together to get the Red Sox Bean's rights.

    Detroit- Lino Urdaneta (RHP)
    2001: 7.61 31/23.2 16/11 in A+
    2002: 2.41 39/52.1 30/17 in A+
    2003: 4.29 68/65 42/24 in AA

    Info: This is really when the Tigers should have chosen Howington, the Reds 10th prospect, and very similar to last year's selection Wil Ledezma. Instead they go the fire-thrower Urdaneta that only relies on high-90s heat. Hell, the Tigers can have that with Matt Anderson and Franklyn German.

    Chance of Staying: None.

    Quickly, addressing 8 moves made today:

    - Scott Spiezio signs with Mariners for 3 years, $9M: Wow, overpaid! Spiezio will likely be the team's third basemen next season, and also allowed Bavasi to do the following trade...

    - Greg Colbrunn traded to Arizona for Quinton McCracken: McCracken will probably play left against southpaws, allowing Randy Winn to play everyday in centerfield.

    - Carl Everett to Expos for two years, $7.5M: With Vidro, Cabrera, Everett, Wilkerson, and Nick Johnson, the Expos should have quite the offense next year.

    - Roberto Hernandez to Phillies for nothing: Well, is he better than Turk?

    - Jeff Suppan and Reggie Sanders to Cardinals: Really makes the Cardinals better, as J.D. Drew couldn't match the numbers of Sanders. Suppan might completely flunk out, or he may continue putting up the stats he did in Pittsburgh.

    - Michael Barrett to A's for P2NL: The A's either get Barrett to play well, or try playing Adam Melhuse everyday. What Billy Beane sees as a can't lose situation, other GMs would cringe at.

    - Dustan Mohr to Giants for P2NL: Nice move for the Giants, giving the team five very good outfielders.

    Come back tomorrow for looks at last seasons division winners...

    WTNYDecember 15, 2003
    An Even Dozen
    By Bryan Smith

    The Winter Meetings always bring a nice weekend, and while I wasn't there, Alex Belth helped me picture the scene in one of the best blog entries of the year. The meetings didn't really heat up until late Saturday, and Sunday must have been a madhouse. It concludes with the Rule V draft tomorrow, and I'm really excited to see how that turns out. Anyway, here's my look into the twelve transactions that occurred, from most important, to Brent Mayne...

    Since the signing of Albert Belle, Oriole owner Peter Angelos has been unable to bring a big name free agent to Baltimore. So far, he's one for three this offseason. Angelos signed Miguel Tejada, the 2002 MVP, yesterday to a 6-year, $72M contract, finally finding a replacement for the empty shoes of Cal Ripken. First, a few Tejada splits:

    Tejada= .278/.336/.472
    Home= .253/.292/.446
    Road= .303/.377/.496
    Pre-ASB= .245/.298/.427
    Post-ASB= .326/.388/.536
    Vs. RH= .281/.326/.473
    Vs. LH= .269/.361/.467

    As you can see, Tejada was very good away from Oakland last year, a trend that has been evident for a few seasons now. He's also hit very well against AL East foes the last three seasons, so I'm predicting big things out of Miguel Tejada next season. Don't be surprised by a .300/.350/.500 season, possibly becoming the best shortstop in his division.

    The Orioles are also close with Vladimir Guerrero, and will undoubtedly sign either Pudge Rodriguz or Javy Lopez this offseason. Assuming those things to be true, here's the Orioles lineup next season:

    C- Javy/Pudge
    1B- Gibbons
    2B- Hairston/Roberts
    SS- Tejada
    3B- Mora
    LF- Bigbie
    CF- Matos
    RF- Guerrero
    DH- Cust/Cordova/Segui

    Very good lineup, assuming Jack Cust gets the majority of at-bats in the designated hitter spot. In fact, they will almost have too many bats, leaving either Melvin Mora or Luis Matos to the ninth hole. This would be a good team, but they lack a rotation. Some reports have them as the leaders for ex-Oriole Sidney Ponson, joining Jason Johnson, Kurt Ainsworth, and Matt Riley as Oriole starters next season. The last spot will be a battle between Rodrigo Lopez and Omar Daal in a battle the O's just can't win.

    But, no matter what, the Orioles are stepping forward. Angelos is keeping his end of the bargain to be true, and this team is really making some improvements. I like what they have done under the Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan regime, both revitalizing the Major League and minor league departments. Hopefully the fans will follow in beautiful Camden Yards.

    Next, the rumored trade between the Yankees and Dodgers was completed, sending Kevin Brown to the Yankees. In exchange, the team gave up hated Yankee Jeff Weaver, converted pitcher Yhency Borzoban, another minor leaguer, and $2.6M. The Yankees will virtually be paying Kevin Brown $16.3M the next two seasons, while the Dodgers will pay Weaver salaries of $4.95M and $7.95M. Here are the splits of Brown:

    Brown= 14-9 2.39 184/211 185/56
    Home= 10-8 2.40 125/139 123/32
    Road= 4-1 2.38 59/72 62/24
    Pre-ASB= 10-4 2.30 102/117.1 103/27
    Post-ASB= 4-5 2.50 82/93.2 82/29

    Surprisingly, Brown did not show an affinity for Dodger Stadium, one of the few Dodgers to do that. He actually threw 57 more innings in Dodger Stadium, which is my little known fact of the day. Brown is a good groundball pitcher that will suffer more from having Giambi, Soriano, and Jeter behind him than leaving Dodger Stadium. He's a health risk, and a rise in ERA seems to be in the cards. Overall, the Brown addition really matches that of Curt Schilling, leaving Javier Vazquez to compete with Derek Lowe.

    The Yankees also have some addition by subtraction losing Weaver, who quickly became a fan target after posting these numbers:

    Weaver= 7-9 5.99 211/159.1 93/47
    Home= 4-4 5.47 99/75.2 41/21
    Road= 3-5 6.45 112/83.2 52/26
    Pre-ASB= 5-7 5.21 136/110.2 62/29
    Post-ASB= 2-2 7.77 75/48.2 31/18
    As REL= 9.26 19/11.2 10/4

    Call me crazy, but I think Weaver is still a good pitcher, and should benefit from playing in Los Angeles. The team needs a better offense to bring Weaver into consideration for a fantasy draft, but expect the ERA to be in the fours next season. Los Angeles still has one too many pitchers when considering Odalis, Dreifort, and Edwin Jackson all in the equation. I would keep Odalis and Dreifort, send Jackson to AAA to work with Joel Hanrahan. Then, if and when a spot opens up, Jackson or Hanrahan are competing for the starts.

    Here's a look at the player Evans brought in from the Yankees as an addition:

    Brazoban (A+)= 2.83 27/28.2 34/12
    Brazoban (AA)= 7.81 33/27.2 19/14

    Not very promising. I am left to think the player to be named later is very good, someone in the Rudy Guillen, Robinson Cano department. I think this deal will ultimately hurt the Dodgers, since they've lost out on Tejada and all left fielders (thanks to transaction #9). Nice haul by the Yankees, but I'm still less than impressed with Dan Evans here.

    When Steinbrenner stole Gary Sheffield from Atlanta, it left a sizeable hole that John Scheurholtz had little to spend for. But as usual, the Braves' GM has improved the team for 2004, acquiring J.D. Drew from the Cardinals, with Eli Marrero for Jason Marquis, Ray King, and #3 prospect Adam Wainwright.

    Drew, the most important name in the deal, was thought to be the Cardinals primary tool for bringing in a very good pitcher for next season. Instead, it landed Wainwright, a pitcher Baseball America calls "an ideal combination of size, talent, and makeup." The oft-injured Drew was a pain in the neck for the Cardinals, but the Braves are willing to take on the risk. He's drawn every comparison in the book, but we need to see 500AB before a judgment can really be made. During his career, he's never even gotten half of that. Here's the splits from last season:

    Drew= .289/.374/.512
    Drew Home= .288/.401/.485
    Away= .290/.349/.535
    Pre-ASB= .305/.377/.567
    Post-ASB= .268/.371/.439
    Vs. RH= .306/.390/534
    Vs. LH= .218/.306/.418

    Turner Field won't really help Drew, although I doubt it will hurt him much either. The second half was due to injury, but I'm less than impressed with his numbers against southpaws. I'm left to wonder if Gary Mathews Jr. will play in those situations, since Eli Marrero actually hits better against right-handers. Marrero only had 107 at-bats due to injury last season, but he'll take on the ultra-utility role next season, as well as backing up Johnny Estrada at catcher. This is the Atlanta lineup next season

    1) Rafael Furcal- SS
    2) Mark DeRosa- 3B
    3) Chipper Jones- LF
    4) Andruw Jones- CF
    5) J.D. Drew- RF
    6) Marcus Giles- 2B
    7) LaRoche/Franco- 1B
    8) Johnny Estrada- C

    I moved Giles to the sixth spot, where his bat will be more focused on replacing the large void left by Javy Lopez. Mark DeRosa will get his chance at third base, although I doubt he'll have the .800 OPS that Vinny Castilla did. Estrada isn't meant to do much, and I can't say his numbers will be any better than the last good International League catcher, Toby Hall.

    As for the Cardinals, there seem to be mixed opinions for the trade. It's obvious they are worse for 2004, but I almost wonder if they are giving up on 2004 and waiting to jump back on the scene in 2005 and 2006. It would make sense, as that's when the likes of Wainwright and Blake Hawkesworth hit the bigtime, and Dan Haren should be much improved by then. The 2004 team will almost surely start either John Gall or Steve Cox at first next year, and are now left to sign a serviceable right fielder. They were on the trail of our #7 addition, but appear to be too late. I expect Reggie Sanders name to be thrown around often in the coming days.

    As for the bullpen, Ray King will be the second leftie, and Jason Marquis will most likely battle for a long relief spot. The team currently has Matt Morris, Woody Williams, Dan Haren, and Cris Carpenter penciled in for spots, but they would really like to sign a #3 pitcher as well. That leaves a bullpen of Isringhausen, Eldred, Kline, King, Calero, and some mix of Josh Pearce, Jim Journell, Marquis, Stechschulte, and Simontacchi. Let me echo Jim Bowden in saying the 2004 NL Central race is really between the Cubs and the Astros.

    In our fourth addition, the Red Sox have formally ditched the closer by committee option, and landed this year's best reliever, Keith Foulke. The deal is three years and $21M, which means that Boston's payroll will surely be between $120-130M next season. Here are Foulke's numbers:

    Foulke= 2.08 57/86.2 88/20
    Home= 2.27 37/51.2 44/13
    Road= 1.80 20/35 44/7
    Pre-ASB= 2.84 38/50.1 54/11
    Post-ASB= 1.24 19/36.1 34/9
    Vs. RH= .210/.254/.363
    Vs. LH= .158/.243/.296

    The road and 2nd half numbers really jump out at me, and scream success for Foulke in 2004. Fenway Park will not help, but Foulke has become a very good closer. Being in Chicago I've seen him pitch numerous times, and I stand by the fact that his change up is the best in the league. He'll be very good in Boston, who now lose both Scotts (Williamson and Sauerbeck) from their bullpen next year. That 'pen will likely include Foulke, Mike Timlin, Bronson Arroyo, Alan Embree, Mark Malaska, and painfully, Ramiro Mendoza. Don't be surprised if Williamson yields a middle reliever who will put Arroyo in long relief and Mendoza out of the equation.

    While Foulke isn't the sexy name that Mariano Rivera is, he's even more dependable, pitching in 65 games each of the last five seasons. Foulke also has the endurance to start in the eighth, which means that Schilling and Foulke should be the only two names in the box score on every fifth day.

    The fifth best addition at the Winter Meetings were made by the New York Mets, who signed one of the best outfielders still available in Mike Cameron. Mike will bring the best centerfield to Shea Stadium has seen in years, along with a promising, albeit sometimes frustrating bat. Cameron is fully capable of hitting four homeruns in a given night, then promptly not hitting a ball for 10 straight at-bats. Here are his splits:

    Cameron= .253/.344/.433
    Home= .235/.329/.429
    Road= .268/.357/.432
    Pre-ASB= .271/.361/.475
    Post-ASB= .227/.319/.368
    Vs. RH= .240/.336/.426
    Vs. LH= .286/.365/.442

    The road numbers breed some promise, although Shea Stadium was hardly built for hitters. He seems to be getting worse by the year, and judging by his 2nd half numbers, by the half. Cameron has improved his batting eye, and could very well hit the cover off the ball next season. But be rest assured, I will not pick him in any fantasy draft of mine. Cameron should hit sixth on the Mets, after whomever they get for right field, but before Jason Phillips. Here's the Mets most likely lineup next season:

    1) Jose Reyes- 2B
    2) Kaz Matsui- SS
    3) Mike Piazza- C
    4) Cliff Floyd- LF
    5) Jose Guillen- RF
    6) Mike Cameron- CF
    7) Jason Phillips- 1B
    8) Ty Wigginton

    Hell, the Mets could make a run for third place next season with those numbers. Expect New York to best the Montreal Expos next year, but they'll likely finish fourth behind any given combination of the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins. I like Cameron a lot, and their overall defense is improving by leaps and bounds. This is an example of a player the Mets should sign, and I'll likely classify Jose Guillen as that too. Here's a look at the 2006 Mets team, which could be dazzling:

    C- Justin Huber
    1B- Mike Piazza
    2B- Jose Reyes
    SS- Kaz Matsui
    3B- David Wright
    LF- Cliff Floyd
    CF- Mike Cameron
    RF- Jose Guillen

    Damn, that will be a very good lineup. Throw in Aaron Heilman, Matt Peterson, and Scott Kazmir, and you might have the division favorites. Jim Duquette has hardly been a good GM with the Mets, but it seems that the team is somehow heading in the right direction.

    The sixth best acquisition was the first of the Winter Meetings to be announced, and that was the signing of Miguel Batista by the Toronto Blue Jays. J.P. Riccardi has added yet another pitcher, this time for the next three years, at $13M. Batista took awhile to get started, but he really blossomed pitching every fith day last year. Here are his splits:

    Batista= 10-9 3.54 197/193.1 142/60
    Home= 6-2 3.87 96/88.1 55/29
    Road= 4-7 3.26 101/105 87/31
    Pre-ASB= 6-4 3.00 106/108 76/31
    Post-ASB= 4-5 4.22 91/85.1 66/29

    Many have pointed to a very good career ERA on turf as well, predicting success for Batista in a Blue Jays uniform. I'm not so bold, and I'm hardly sold on him being the team's second starter next season. It's a very nice move, and he'll fit well with Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen, but I don't think his ERA will get any better than 3.40.

    Riccardi has done a lot to improve this team's staff, and their rotation should actually be very good next season. Part of the reason for Batista's breakdown could have been it was his first season starting every single game, so maybe that will change next year. Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen had very good second halves, and this team really thinks they could make some noise as a Wild Card contender. Then they woke up and realized their division also included the Red Sox and the Yankees.

    Seventh was a move, or three moves, made by yet another AL East team. In their quest for 70 wins, the Devil Rays added Jose Cruz, Geoff Blum, and Rey Sanchez yesterday, likely at a combined cost of $5M. Cruz signed a two-year, $6M contract, while Sanchez will stay for one million. Blum was acquired for Brandon Backe, a crappy AAA middle reliever. Here's a look at the splits of Cruz last season:

    Overall: .250/.366/.414
    Home: .267/.387/.421
    Road: .234/.345/.407
    Pre-ASB: .262/.378/.466
    Post-ASB: .233/.348/.335
    Vs. RH: .233/.353/.379
    Vs. LH: .304/.405/.519

    Cruz lost all his power in the second half, and if that continues, he isn't the best option. But, his plate discipline improved substantially, so I'm bullish on Cruz next season. He is a little platoonable, and it worries me that the AL East really does have a lack of left-handed pitching (Wells in NY, Lilly in TOR, Riley/Daal in BAL) in the division.

    Here's a look at the Devil Rays lineup next year:

    1) Crawford- LF
    2) Lugo- 2B
    3) Baldelli- CF
    4) Huff- DH
    5) Cruz- RF
    6) Tino- 1B
    7) Blum- 3B
    8) Sanchez- SS

    Not exactly the 1927 Yankees, but this is finally a ballclub that should eclipse the 70-win mark under the guidance of Lou Pinella. I think Crawford will improve next year, and I don't know what to think about Rocco Baldelli. He could very well be the Shea Hillenbrand type, a player that excites in April and then sucks the rest of the year. The team's future is basically non-existent, but they are putting a team that Bud Selig shouldn't contract next year.

    Going from one bad team to worse, the Tigers signed another post-peak player to a 2-year, $6M contract, signing Rondell White to play left field. They missed out on Miguel Tejada, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rich Aurilia ends up signing here. If so, this will be the Tigers starting nine:

    C- Brandon Inge
    1B- Carlos Pena
    2B- Fernando Vina
    SS- Rich Aurilia
    3B- Eric Munson
    LF- Rondell White
    CF- Alex Sanchez
    RF- Higginson/Monroe
    DH- Dmitri Young

    That will be a better team, no doubt, but this club should really be focusing on free agents that aren't past their peak seasons. I mean, what's the best that team could do? Anyways, here's a look at White's splits last year:

    White= .289/.341/.488
    In AL= .347/.400/.613
    In NL= .278/.330/.465
    Vs. RH= .285/.337/.501
    Vs. LH= .299/.351/.453

    White's AL numbers were greatly influenced by Kauffman Stadium, and he's much more of the National League version. One good thing about White is that he isn't platoonable, a problem the Tigers really had last season. While there isn't a lot of upside when signing Vina, White, and Aurilia, it's going to be a waiting game for Tiger fans, and having the occasional recognizable name is a plus.

    To end the string of outfield acquisitions is Juan Encarnacion, whom was acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Encarnacion has always had the skills, but is yet to really put together an All-Star caliber season. Instead, he reminds me of Adrian Beltre. Here are his numbers:

    Encarnacion= .270/.313/.446
    Home= .253/.294/.435
    Road= .285/.331/.456
    Pre-ASB= .283/.324/.471
    Post-ASB= .250/.299/.410
    Vs. RH= .270/.309/.456
    Vs. LH= .267/.331/.405

    Dodger Stadium will do more to hinder his numbrs than Pro Player did, so this really wasn't a great offensive addition by the Dodgers. While Encarnacion should improve the .220/.291/352 numbers that Dodger LF hit last season, numbers of .260/.300/.425 really wouldn't shock me. Why wouldn't this team pay a like amount to Reggie Sanders, Rondell White, or Matt Stairs? I have no idea, and that doesn't even begin to talk about the player they had to give up. The Dodgers really do lack direction, and the sooner the Frank McCourt thing is passed, the better this organization will be.

    Here's a look at the Marlins starting 8, as a result of the Encarnacion dump:

    C- Ramon Castro
    1B- Hee Seop Choi
    2B- Luis Castillo
    SS- Alex Gonzalez
    3B- Mike Lowell
    LF- Jeff Conine
    CF- Juan Pierre
    RF- Miguel Cabrera

    Is it possible for Choi and Cabrera to match the 2003 production of Lee and Encarnacion? Very much so. Also, can Jeff Conine and Ramon Castro combine to match the production of Pudge and Todd Hollansworth last year? Probably. So, this lineup shouldn't be much worse next season, although they won't get any better midseason as they did last year with Conine and Cabrera. Mike Lowell really needs to stay healthy next year, and it would be a very good time for Choi to start 'getting it.'

    The tenth move of the Winter Meetings was the only 3-team trade, one that sent 6-10 Mark Hendrickson to Tampa Bay, Joe Kennedy to Colorado, and Justin Speier to Toronto. I'll take this one team-by-team.

    First, the Devil Rays don't seem to improve much with Hendrickson v. Kennedy, although they won't have to pay Hendrickson next year. Mark is two years removed from the NBA, so he actually does have room to improve. And it will be hard not to when considering the disastrous numbers he posted last year:

    Hendrickson= 9-9 5.51 207/158.1 76/40
    Road= 5-4 4.16 118/97.1 40/23
    Post-ASB= 4-3 5.46 82/64.1 28/17

    Well, the road numbers are a little more promising, possibly giving hope to Hendrickson pitching under 5.00 next season. He'll just fill the void left by Kennedy, and it all but assured a spot next year. He leaves behind the Blue Jays whom were most happy in this deal, acquiring an already proven reliever in Justin Speier. Here are Speier's splits from last season:

    Speier= 4.05 73/73.1 66/23
    Home= 4.57 43/41.1 41/12
    Road= 3.38 30/32 25/11
    Pre-ASB= 3.19 44/48 40/14
    Post-ASB= 5.68 29/25.1 26/9
    Vs. RH= .245/.313/.436
    Vs. LH= .273/.336/.446

    Pitchers after they leave Coors are always a good buy, and I think Speier's first half numbers are really what to expect out of him next year. He'll be given every chance to win the Toronto closing job next year, in stiff competition with the likes of Kerry Ligtenberg and Aquilino Lopez. He pitches well against both right-handers and left-handers, and his home run rate should decrease in the Skydome next season. I really like the Speier addition, and J.P. Riccardi is a real winner of the Winter Meetings.

    As for Kennedy, I don't know if he was worth giving up Speier. It's very possible that Joe will never break 6.00 in Coors Field, after witnessing him give up a few jacks on more than one occasion this season. Rich Lederer pointed out that he actually had the best and worst AL game score last season, although there will be more of the latter in 2004. The Colorado rotation now looks to have Kennedy, Shawn Chacon, Jason Jennings, Aaron Cook, and Denny Neagle. And O'Dowd still has a job?

    I really like the 11th move, mainly because I really like the player. Kansas City did a very nice job signing Tony Graffanino to a 2-year, $2.2M contract. Graffanino is a .370 career hitter in Kauffman Stadium, and overall one of my top five favorite players in baseball. Tony Pena says that Desi Relaford still has the 2B job, which deeply saddens me, yet predicts that The Boy (El Nino) will have 400AB next season. Given 500AB, I'd say we're talking about a .275/.350/.450 player in Kauffman. Free Tony Graffanino!

    Finally, moving from an new Royal to an ex-Royal, the Diamondbacks announced their signing of Brent Mayne about an hour ago. It's for 800,000, and it means the team will non-tender Rod Barajas and use Robby Hammock as their main catcher in 2004. I'm way too tired to go in-depth on Mayne, so please just come back tomorrow for insight on the Rule V draft picks.

    WTNYDecember 12, 2003
    Petit Pettite
    By Bryan Smith

    A day ago, the Andy Pettite to the Astros signing sounded atrocious to Yankee fans. I agreed with that group, accusing the Yanks of lacking direction. A day later, we learn that Pettite turned down a three-year, $39M from Steinbrenner, for $31.5M to stay home in Texas. So, the team moved on, and Newsday is reporting a Kevin Brown deal is all but finished. While I could spend an article writing about the 2004 Yankees, I'll save that for another day, and talk extensively about the Pettite signing.

    First, a look at Pettite's 2003 overall splits (W-L, ERA, H/IP, K/BB):

    Overall: 21-8 4.02 227/208.1 180/50
    Home: 10-4 3.78 102/100 93/20
    Road: 11-4 4.24 125/108.1 87/30
    Pre-ASB: 11-6 4.63 131/116.2 101/30
    Post-ASB: 10-2 3.24 96/91.2 79/20

    First of all, Pettite's second half is deceiving. He faced the Orioles five times, and also pitched against the Devil Rays, Angels, Tigers, and Indians. The two losses came against the Mariners and Red Sox, and his two best victories were against the Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals. Also, Pettite had a majority of his starts in New York after the Midsummer Classic.

    Although Yankee Stadium is a hitter's park, there is no question Pettite pitched better in the Bronx. Call it Yankee fans, but it's been a fact of Pettite throughout his career. In fact, each of the last five seasons he has had a better ERA at home, with his injury-plagued 2002 being the exception. But in 2001, Pettite had a 3.16ERA in New York, compared to a 4.97 on the road. This is the first worry, especially considering Houston had a 6.6% park effect, compared to 4.9% in Yankee Stadium, according to the SNWL reports at Baseball Prospectus.

    Speaking of those reports, here's a look at Pettite's numbers:

    SNW: 12.8 (21 actual)
    SNL: 11.2 (8 actual)
    SNWAR: 2.6

    The latter stat is the one Michael Wolverton uses to evaluate pitchers, which is "the number of support-neutral wins a pitcher has above what what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of decisions." Basically, when taking bullpen support, run support, and park effects into the equation, the SNWAR reports how much better the player is than a average, .425 pitcher. Surprising to me, was that Pettite's win-loss record was about 13-11 from Baseball Prospectus, much worse than the 21 he raked up with the AL champs. And the SNWAR? Here's the rest of the MLB pitchers with a 2.6:

    Josh Beckett
    Zach Day
    Kevin Millwood
    Brad Penny
    Horacio Ramirez
    John Thomson

    Very interesting group, and it gives you a lot to think about. The Braves were said to be considering Pettite, but instead signed John Thomson, the last name on that list, for $7M less annually than Pettite gets. Horacio Ramirez, also a Brave, was the only other southpaw on the list, matching Pettite in his rookie season. Millwood and Beckett are familiar names, but their 2003s weren't THAT impressive. Andy is hardly in great company, and you have to wonder if John Scheurholtz was looking at this list when he inked Thomson.

    I decided to look further into run support, as that is a key component in overvaluing a pitcher. I went through all of Andy Pettite's starts, totaling up the Yankees runs the day Pettite pitched. Divide that by the number of starts, and you have run support. Then, I did the same with the Astros five most-pitched starters, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Tim Redding, Jeriome Robertson, and Ron Villone, whom started 136 of the Astros 162. Here are my results:

    Pettite: 6.58RS

    Villone: 5.79RS
    Robertson: 5.45RS
    Oswalt: 4.90RS
    Miller: 4.79RS
    Redding: 3.75RS
    Astros 5 total: 4.85RS

    Houston's five main 2003 starters had 4.85 runs on average, to work with from their offense. Pettite's 6.58 is among the highest in the league, and he can't expect that with Houston. That's nearly two runs of difference assuming Pettite at least gets 4.85, and that alone should take a chunk from his win total.

    OK, well, two of the main keys people speak of for Pettite is that he's left-handed, and he is a great "clutch" postseason pitcher. The AL East is considered a very good offensive division, with two good offenses in the Red Sox and Blue Jays playing the Yankees a ton during the regular season. Houston? They get to play the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Brewers' offenses nearly half the season. So I went through all the division teams, totaling up their 2003 OPS vs. left-handers:

    Boston: .803
    Toronto: .821
    Tampa Bay: .714
    Baltimore: .729
    AL East OPS vs. LH: .767

    St. Louis: .860
    Chicago: .772
    Cincinnatti: .674
    Pittsburgh: .758
    Milwaukee: .748
    NL Central OPS vs. LH: .762

    Not nearly the difference I anticipated, which means that Pettite will hardly have an easier schedule of opponents in the NL. It's something, but minute. OK, what about the postseason experience part of his resume? Pettite has pitched in 21 different playoff series, and six different World Series. Here are his numbers in that time:

    Overall Playoffs: 17-5 4.05 195/186.2 118/52
    World Series: 5-2 3.90 66/60 42/18

    Considering Pettite's career ERA is 3.94, he's just about at his average when he pitches in the post season. But, that is a positive, considering it is against the best teams, at the highest stakes.

    One thing I love about Pettite, is his consistency. Andy has failed to appear in 30 games just once in his career, 2002, when he still registered only 22 starts while injured. Pettite has six two hundred inning seasons, for a career average of 6.33 IP/G, just about six and a third innings per start. Andy matched that total in 2003 (6.33), so you know he's dependable.

    In his old age, Pettite's become more of a strikeout pitcher than at any other time in his career. Here are the K/9 rates for all of Andy's nine Major League seasons:

    1995: 5.86
    1996: 6.60
    1997: 6.22
    1998: 6.07
    1999: 5.68
    2000: 5.50
    2001: 7.36
    2002: 6.48
    2003: 7.78

    After his rookie season, Pettite had a 6.60 K/9 rate in a very good 1996 season. After that, he had four straight years in which those numbers declined, causing more than a few worries. But since, Pettite has become a different pitcher, with a 7.30 K/9 rate in the last three years, almost a full strikeout higher than his career average of 6.40. Strikeouts should be easier to come by against the likes of Milwaukee and Cincinnati, so fantasy owners have at least one thing to look forward to.

    Recap time. We have proven that Pettite is an overvalued player, that a large part of his wins were due to the confines of Yankee Stadium, as well as the huge run support his team gave him. Minute Maid Park likely won't treat him the same, and the Astros are hardly as helpful as the Bronx Bombers. Baseball Prospectus calls $3.5M John Thomson a similar pitcher, so I think I've proven Pettite is over payed.

    2004 is an important season in Houston. After next year, Jeff Kent, Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, and Craig Biggio are all free agents offensively. Their buyouts will cost $3.7M, Ausmus will be $2M, and Bagwell and Pettite combine for $25.5M of their $75M payroll. The team has about $32M spent towards next years team, but will have to pay up for arbitration-eligibles like Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, and Octavio Dotel, likely escalating the payroll to $50M.

    OK, coming back to 2004, let's look at the Astros team as we know it:

    1. Criag Biggio- CF
    2. Morgan Ensberg- 3B
    3. Jeff Bagwell- 1B
    4. Jeff Kent- 2B
    5. Lance Berkman- LF
    6. Richard Hidalgo- RF
    7. Brad Ausmus- C
    8. Adam Everett- SS

    1- Andy Pettite- LHP
    2- Roy Oswalt- RHP
    3- Wade Miller- RHP
    4- Tim Redding- RHP
    5- Robertson (LH)/Duckworth (RH)/Hernandez (LH)

    CL- Octavio Dotel
    SU- Brad Lidge
    MR- Ricky Stone
    MR- Pete Munro
    MR- Kirk Saarlos
    LH- Dan Miceli

    So really, the only battles are for the fifth rotation spot, which I would give to Carlos Hernandez, whom is pitching fairly well in winer ball. Jeriome Robertson did good against left-handers last year, and might be an asset in the bullpen. Please, just forget his 15 wins. Send Duckworth to AAA, and make him prove to you that he's ready.

    After a great 2003 race, the NL Central is poised for another great showdown in 2004. The Cubs and Astros are both ahead of St. Louis, which needs a bullpen and a second starter to become a real threat. Houston is good, but they still can't match the Cubs' pitching. We'll see what the Cubs do in the Winter Meetings, but don't anticipate the NL Central champions losing their crown next season.

    And for Pettite? Well, I'll just say it won't surprise me to see something like 14-11, 4.40 with about 170-180 strikeouts.

    ESPNews reporting Miguel Batista is going to sign with the Blue Jays, and an interesting story posted over at the Cleveland Indians Report, likely a hoax. Anyway, keep your eyes and ears tuned to New Orleans, and break on Sunday to watch Rex Grossman's first NFL start. I'm out...

    WTNYDecember 11, 2003
    Yankee-Hating
    By Bryan Smith

    In yesterday's Washington Post, Thomas Boswell joined a host of other writers documenting the offseason as we've seen it. Joe Sheehan wrote a nice piece hinting towards collusion, but only among a certain group of owners. I disagree with Joe, and the best defense I have is the New York Yankees. In past offseasons, the phrase "what George wants, George gets," has held as true as anyything. But that seems to be changing, as Steinbrenner has missed out on targets Curt Schilling and Kaz Matsui, and looks to have a weak grip on Andy Pettite, Gary Sheffield, and Kenny Lofton. Collusion is quite hard to prove when the richest team in baseball is constantly moving to plan two.

    Yesterday, a New York radio station, along with the Houston Chronicle, both ran stories that Andy Pettite has all but signed with the Astros. The rumor is Drayton McLane has signed Pettite for three seasons, at $10M per year, stealing him away from the Boss. On the same day, Gary Sheffield talks have started to dwindle, as Sheffield is angry about bonuses, buyouts, and deferred money. Kenny Lofton may feel more loved by San Diego, who can all but match the Yankees one-year, $3M offer. If George is 0/3 with these players, heads will be pounded in the Big Apple. In contrast, the hated Boston Red Sox are moving in a different direction, currently hot after the league's best player.

    Where? That is the question circulating Yankee offices in Tampa, as the team currently lacks direction with two-thirds of their top targets (Vazquez, Pettite, Sheffield) may go in other directions. While the present team boasts a lineup fans in Milwaukee and Detroit couldn't dream of, there's one team that's better. There is one team that is smarter, one team that is more active. The Boston Red Sox. While this may be a bit hasty, I'm tempted to say that Theo Epstein is the best thing to happen to this organization in the last 50 years. The type of creativity and intelligence that Epstein brings to the Red Sox front office is second to none, much of the reason Boston is currently a better team, with $50M less.

    George has been known to act hastily, so this article may be deemed moot if the Boss gets mad tonight and makes insane offers to both Pettite and Sheffield. In fact, I believe the Yankees will still sign Sheffield, but that's not the point. Whether the 2004 standings indicate this or not, the last two months have been a sign that the tide is changing in the Northeast. While John Henry's pocketbook hardly matches Steinbrenner's, that may be the only thing New York has superior to their arch rivals. Much has been made of the Yankees future problems because of long-term contracts, most notably in the 2006 season, but it's the 2004 team that should be the largest worry.

    The Alex Rodriguez deal is going to fall through. Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, both blackballed in the organization, may be clubhouse cancers next season. Gary Sheffield will be wearing pinstripes, and Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras will be in the AL Cy Young top ten. Despite all the problems that may surface on the Atlantic shores, Boston has both heart and level-headedness. While veteran leadership is a mocked term across the Internet, David Ortiz brings much more to the Red Sox than a great left-handed bat. Boston fans make a difference in every home game, and the front office has the creativity and cunningness to improve the team at any time. I'm not sure the Yankees have this. Boston was the better than New York in 2003, much in the same way that I will argue my Cubs were better than Florida. Curses don't exist, and Babe Ruth's shadow will not cast over Fenway any longer.

    I am not predicting the Red Sox to win the World Series, or even the division next year. I would bet that the Red Sox win more divisional championships in the next five years, but that is losing focus from the point of this article. While much has been made of baseball's changing markets, the Yankees are no longer the de facto choice of every free agent. If the agentless Sheffield will test Steinbrenner on a contract, what will Boras or Hendricks do? The nation is taking Larry Lucchino's claim of an "evil empire" into their views, and 'Damn Yankees' is more of a prayer than a musical nowadays. New York will have to show renewed direction in the next week to prove to me that the 1980s aren't returning. If not, I'll be forecasting some long years ahead in the Bronx...

    OK, after that rant, a few thoughts on the day's transactions...

    Vinny Castilla to the Rockies for $2.1M- Why? Doesn't Dan O'Dowd have better things to do than this? Garret Atkins is fine at third, and if the team signs a shortstop, I'll argue Mark Bellhorn is fine there. Second base? Aaron Miles. Left Field? Rene Reyes. O'Dowd: SPEND THE MONEY ON PITCHING! And please, not Antonio Alfonseca like the rumors are currently stating. Note to Rockie ownership: fire O'Dowd! When you look at Castilla's numbers below, it's possible he'll break a .500 slugging percentage in Coors. But, the point is, you don't spend money on hitting in Colorado. Castilla's splits:

    Overall: .277/.310/.461
    Vs. RH: .273/.303/.464 Vs. LH: .290/.333/.452
    Home: .280/.308/.419 Away: .274/.312/.497
    Pre-ASB: .271/.310/.467 Post-ASB: .285/.311/.452

    Fernando Vina to the Tigers for 2 years, $6M- Why? For more money than Mark Grudzilanek? For a platoonable, 35-year-old second basemen? Vina will add the infamous veteran presence for the Tigers, along with a second name that Detroit fans can recognize. There are a lot of holes on this team, but they should never sign any player under twenty-eight, unless needed to fill a roster. Trading for one of the Baltimore second basemens would have been much smarter, but hey, the Tigers don't think like this. Note to Tiger ownership: fire Dambrowski! Vina's splits:

    Overall: .251/.309/.382
    Vs. RH: .271/.326/.414 Vs. LH: .163/.236/.245
    Home: .277/.326/.395 Road: .229/.294/.371
    1st half: .262/.316/.430 2nd half: .230/.295/.287

    Fullmer to the Rangers for $1M- Finally, a good signing. Texas has filled the DH hole for one season as Adrian Gonzalez prepares in the minors, and have almost completely finished their 2004 offense. If Nix, Nivar, and Mench make up the outfield next season, they are finished. Fullmer brings a good left-handed bat to a team, and has an outside chance of being the David Ortiz story of 2004. Most likely, he'll quietly hit .290/.380/.500, and few people will notice. Fullmer's splits, excluding the second half in which he was injured:

    Overall: .306/.387/.500
    Vs. RH: .313/.398/.517 Vs. LH: .267/.324/.400
    Home: .265/.336/.408 Road: .343/.432/.583

    Finally, let me mention that the Pirates made a nice minor league signing in Daryle Ward, as he probably will figure it out somewhere, someday. But, hopefully this won't deter them from playing Criag Wilson everyday. The Brewers already gave Ned Yost an extension, which seems a little haste. I think Yost did a fantastic job last year, but the team hasn't won enough games to start giving him more money.

    I'll be back tomorrow with less cynicism, and more rumors and analysis...

    WTNYDecember 10, 2003
    Trapped in Transactions
    By Bryan Smith

    Too many transactions to ignore today, so I'm going to play the role of Ruzich, and spend about 2,500 words analyzing the day's events. Alex Belth has another amazing interview at Bronx Banter, this time with Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci. Also, Baseball America gave their top ten list of GM prospects, although I'm a little bitter my name didn't appear anywhere. On to the writing...

    To start I send you to the O.C. (not the Fox TV show which I highly reccommend watching), where Arte Moreno has made his second huge signing as owner. California loved Gene Autry, and while you won't see Moreno's face on the silver screen, I have a feeling he'll be well-liked by Angels' fans. So will the fattest pitcher West of David Wells...

    Colon Overall- 15-13 3.87 223/242 173/67
    Home: 8-6 3.84 102/117.1 82/33
    Road: 7-7 3.90 121/124.2 91/34
    Pre-ASB: 6-8 4.14 129/134.2 98/41
    Post-ASB: 9-5 3.52 94/107.1 75/26

    Colon is the true essence of a power pitcher, finishing snugly in second of most pitches thrown over 100 mph last season. Many were worried of Colon's diminishing K/9 rate before the season, but he raised it up to an acceptable level, and dropped his BAA and BB/9 numbers for the third straight season. Colon is learning how to pitch, and should thrive under the tutelage that Bud Black will provide. He is great for a bullpen, as it's hard to find anyone else in the Majors whom has approached 700 IP in the last three seasons (697.2). Many worry his husky frame will lead to injuries down the road, a la David Wells, but a good motion and thick legs should provide health during this contract.

    The deal will carry Colon through the latter half of his "prime years", and will finish when Colon is at the age of 34. $12M will turn out to be a good barometer of the market, as similar pitchers Kerry Wood, Kevin Millwood, and Javier Vazquez are all seeking contracts in that range. Colon wasn't helped by Cleveland and Detroit as much as teammate Esteban Loaiza, actually allowing a 5.94ERA to the Tigers in three starts. The AL West is known for spacious ballparks, so I wouldn't be surprised if Colon turns in his best season to date next year, then slowly falling off the map as his fastball decreases in velocity. Between Colon and Ramon Ortiz, there will be a lot of home runs given up in Anaheim next year, but Arte Moreno did a nice job signing the best pitcher available on the market.

    Whether this move necessitates a Jarrod Washburn trade/non-tender will be a story for another date, but if not, the Angels will have a fantastic rotation next year. If Washburn leaves than Aaron Sele has a spot, but expect Bobby Jenks and Ervin Santana to fly through the system. I see this team building towards 2006, when their great farm system will begin yielding their best results, and players like Kelvim Escobar and Bartolo Colon will be seeing their final days under contract. Anaheim still will sign a 1B (Palmiero or Travis Lee), and they are in the market for a shortstop, whether it be Nomar Garciaparra by trade or Miguel Tejada in a signing. The Winter Meetings will really dictate who becomes the favorite in the AL West, as no team looks too fearful as of yet.

    Bill Bavasi has tried to put the Mariners in front for 2004, and made a very bold move signing Eddie Guardado to a contract Tuesday, days after locking up Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Here are some splits:

    Guardado: 2.89 50/65.1 60/14 41Sv
    Home: 1.75 25/36 34/6 Road: 4.30 25/29.1 26/8
    Pre-ASB: 3.75 31/36 32/7 Post-ASB: 1.84 19/29.1 28/7
    Vs. RH: .219/.264/.382 Vs. LH: .175/.194/.222

    Everyday Eddie is an interesting case, a seemingly consistent player whom shows drastic split differences. Guardado, like ex-Twins LaTroy Hawkins and Eric Milton, showed a large affinity for pitching in the Metrodome, a statistic that has held true much of his career. Seattle hardly plays in a small stadium though, so I don't anticipate any negative effects from that move. Guardado became a better pitcher in the second half, showing better stuff and a slightly higher walk rate as a result. Right-handers have always been known to hit with more power against him, but he negates both types well.

    Guardado isn't the typical great reliever that has one dominant pitch, but fits more in the Joe Borowski variety of hard-nosed pitchers. He has excellent control, and uses as many as five pitches to disrupt hitters. 1995 was the last season Eddie threw in less than 60 games, although 2001 was the last time he was primarily used in the set-up role. But, Kaz Sasaki is old and injury-prone, so Guardado's as good a bet to finish with 20 saves as anyone. It will also move Shigetoshi Hasegawa to solely pitching in middle relief, a role he was familiar with until being tried as closer during parts of the 2003 season. A look at Hasegawa's numbers:

    Hasegawa: 1.48 62/73 32/18 16 Sv
    Home: 0.97 27/37 20/4 Road: 2.00 35/36 12/14
    Pre-ASB: 0.77 37/46.2 21/7 Post-ASB: 2.73 25/26.1 11/11
    Vs. RH: .221/.262/.361 Vs, LH: .246/.301/.317

    Shiggy is the rare type of pitcher that could care less about strikeout numbers, yet is still extremely effective. He was the best reliever in baseball during the first half, but finished the year fifth on Baseball Prospectus' reliever rankings. Hasegawa is much better in Safeco, a figure that likely drove up his value this offseason. In the end, Shiggy signed a contract very comparable to that of Paul Quantrill, another of the game's best right-handed middle relievers. Shiggy's 2003 will likely finish as his career season, but don't be surprised if he doesn't top a 3.00 ERA during this contract.

    Like it or not, the Mariners will be paying Guardado and Hasegawa a combined $7.5M next year, before these players even think about reaching incentives. Sasaki is set to bring in $8M, meaning the team's top three relievers could easily haul in $20M next season. Kaz will begin the year as closer, with Guardado mainly working in set-up. Hasegawa and Julio Mateo are next out of the bullpen, and the team is one left-handed pitcher short. I like this deal because it means Bob Melvin must use stud Rafael Soriano out of the rotation, and likely pushes Freddy Garcia into free agency. But, Arthur Rhodes would have come a lot cheaper, plus Seattle is strapping for cash after a bad left fielder signing. Speaking of...

    Player A: .294/.345/.454 .268 EqA $4.3M 2004 salary
    Player B: .292/.389/.561 .314 EqA $1M 2004 salary

    This example shows how horrendous the Raul Ibanez signing truely was, as Allan Baird signed Matt Stairs to a one-year, $1M deal yesterday. And oh yeah, Baird will get a second-round choice next June courtesy of Bavasi's error. Here's a look at the rest of Stairs' stats:

    Home: .350/.424/.669 Road: .230/.356/.446
    Pre-ASB: .272/.347/.513 Post-ASB: .313/.431/.605

    I won't bother to show the LH/RH splits, as Stairs only had thirty-two at-bats against left-handers last season. Anyways, Stairs, a former second basemen, has really changed the course of his career, becoming one of the best platoonable players in the game during recent seasons. The team is said to be courting Raul Mondesi, and the trio of Stairs, Mondesi, and Ken Harvey would alternate in the LF/DH roles next season. Allan Baird is really starting to understand baseball better, and I hear tomorrow he will add Benito Santiago as well.

    But he wasn't finished yesterday, also picking up valuable reliever Scott Sullivan at the bargain basement price of $2.1M next season. Here's a look at Sullivan:

    Sullivan: 3.66 48/66 56/32
    In AL: 3.77 9/14.1 13/6 In NL: 3.62 39/49.2 43/26
    Pre-ASB: 3.86 38/44.2 39/23 Post-ASB: 3.20 10/19.2 17/9
    Vs. RH: .187/.300/.313 Vs. LH: .238/.333/.405

    The main reason I love Sullivan is durability, the man has pitched in 373 games in the last five years, with a 6.06 ERA in 2002 the only blemish on his chart. Sullivan pitches in every role, able to pitch from three innings to one batter, and right-handers have always struggled against him. Walks are a little bit of a problem, but Sullivan has been notoriously a great reliever during his career. Playing in Kauffman Stadium may push his ERA above 4.00, but he'll be valuable in a very deep bullpen that includes Sullivan, Curt Leskanic, Mike MacDougal, Jeremy Affeldt, and D.J. Carrasco already. The Royals are doing a great job, and with Santiago and Mondesi would become the favorites in the weak AL Central.

    Moving to the National League, the Braves have quickly signed their replacement to Greg Maddux, as the team signed John Thomson. You laugh, but Thomson wasn't a whole lot worse when throwing ERA out of the equation last season:

    Maddux: 9.27 H/9, 1.36 BB/9, 5.11 K/9, 3.4 SNWAR
    Thomson: 9.71 H/9, 2.03 BB/9, 5.64 K/9, 2.6 SNWAR

    While I recognize that Maddux is and was the better pitcher, he also comes with a price tag that sits about $10M higher than the $3.5M that Atlanta will pay Thomson. John pitched very well after the break, going 7-5, 4.17ERA, allowing 98 hits in 99.1IP with 63K and 25BB. Teams were hot on his trail, and Turner Field should go a long way into helping his 2004 statistics. He'll be the third pitcher for the Braves, pitching behind Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton, while in front of Horacio Ramirez.

    By signing a starter the Braves have indicated all their money will go toward offense, likely freeing up enough money to go after Vladimir Guerrero during the Winter Meetings. This does mean their hot and cold interest in Andy Pettite and Kevin Millwood will subside, although both those pitchers will likely stay with their current teams.

    Millwood has said it is "likely" that he will accept arbitration from the Phillies, likely commanding a salary in the $12M range for 2004. Philadelphia is trying so hard to do the Jacobs' Field Indian effect of the 90s, timing success with a new stadium perfectly. The Phillies made another move yesterday, signing reliever Tim Worrell to a two-year, $5.5M contract. This is a solid move by the Phillies, considering Worrell's 2003...

    Worrell: 2.87 74/78.1 65/28 38 Sv
    Home: 2.64 42/44.1 32/13 Road: 3.18 32/34 33/15
    Pre-ASB: 2.12 39/46.2 35/16 Post-ASB: 3.98 35/31.2 30/12
    Vs. RH: .250/.297/.346 Vs. LH: .241/.313/.317

    I'm not particularly bullish on Worrell next season, although I think he is one of the better set-up men that is left available on the market. This will put a lot less pressure on Rheal Cormier, which has to be considered a good thing, and Billy Wagner makes games eight innings with his amazing arm.

    There's little left for the Phillies to do, they want to sign Dan Plesac, and they will want to sign one more right-handed middle relief arm. But for now, this is one Helluva team:

    Lineup: Lieberthal, Thome, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Burrell, Byrd, Abreu
    Rotation: Millwood, Wolf, Padilla, Milton, Myers
    Bullpen: Wagner, Worrell, Cormier, Plesac

    Wow, all Ed Wade has to do now is listen to the hype build, and prepare to fire Larry Bowa when the team struggles out of the gate. Bowa is the only thing holding back this team, although de facto manager Joe Kerrigan wasn't exactly a miracle worker in Boston.

    Finally, touching on the St. Louis Cardinals, who announced non-guaranteed deals with Brent Butler and Steve Cox yesterday. Butler is an infielder who has been entrenched in the Rockie system for years, never producing awe-inspiring results. Cox is an ex-Devil Rays first basemen that had tons of potential, lost it, went to Japan, and has come back.

    Butler has amassed 553 at-bats the last three seasons in Colorado, finishing with an average of .248/.285/.380 across the board. His road OPS during this time hasn't topped .550, but he's known mainly for his infield glove. Also, Butler has a reverse-platoon split, as his OPS against right-handers (.698), is much better than that against southpaws (.567). Bo Hart is currently seen as the Cardinals' 2B, although I think the team felt they needed to bring a veteran in to compete with. Hart was very effective against left-handers last year, and may end up with just a platoon role. In the end, expect the popular Hart to win the job, but here's a little credit to Walt Jocketty for at least building some competition.

    I'll also keep that credit going with the low-risk signing of Steve Cox, the 2000 #9 prospect in the Tampa Bay organization. In 1999, Cox hit .341 in AAA, also hitting 25 home runs, while walking only 67 times. Then, he went on to put these lines up in the Majors:

    2000: .283/.379/.453
    2001: .257/.323/.427
    2002: .254/.330/.396

    Cox looked like a very promising player after the 2000 season, during which he homered 11 times in 318AB, with a BB/K ratio that GMs love (45/47). But his numbers deteriorated the following seasons, as his batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS all spent three years on the decline. An injury prevented Cox from playing in Japan, and St. Louis was definitely the right place to come for a job.

    I've written numerous times on this site I believe John Gall will play first base for the Cardinals in 2004, while Albert Pujols will remain in left field. Cox will play a similar role to the aforementioned Brent Butler, providing Spring Training competition for the youngster, Gall. If Cox has a great Spring Training the team can give him a chance, or they can see if he'll recreate those 1999 numbers in Memphis. Cox never hit lefties in the Majors, and Gall struggles with them currently, so expect the team to sign a LF that can hit southpaws, and Pujols will move to first on those days. Overall, I like these moves by Jocketty, as I support veteran competition before giving jobs to youngsters, unless you tempt Dusty Baker with Randall Simon.

    That's it, I think I nailed every transaction. San Diego signed the Japanese veteran they've long sought after, and while I didn't touch on Shannon Stewart, I'll just refer you to Aaron Gleeman's great piece from yesterday. Have a good one, and I hear Benito is a Royal, Vinny Castilla a Rockie, and Carl Everett has an offer from the D-Rays. So is life Carl, so is life.

    WTNYDecember 09, 2003
    Everywhere
    By Bryan Smith

    There is so much going on in the sports world that I will spend today's column discussing a lot of things. Let me start by suggesting my readers to go read the roundtable discussion some of the Internet's finest have had over at Netshrine. First, on a few baseball-related items...

    - The Mets sign Kaz Matsui- I wrote an article on the stud shortstop back in November, concluding he would finish the season with a .295/.325/.445 line, which I will stand by today. I hate the idea of moving Reyes to second, it just reminds me of the horrible time the Cleveland Indians have had with Brandon Phillips the last two seasons. And if this team was so willing to pay a question-filled shortstop $7M per season, why not top the Marlins' bid for Luis Castillo? Luis would have fit much better than Matsui, matching Kaz in every category but home runs.

    - Angels to sign Bartolo Colon- 4 years, $48M. Wow. Arte Moreno really wants to make his presence felt after seeing the kind of treatment that Anaheim gave their last great owner, Gene Autry. Moreno has already bought Escobar and Colon, with hitting next on the agenda. I think this team will bring in Rafeal Palmiero, and I think going after Rich Aurilia might be a good idea as well. Non-tender Adam Kennedy, move Eckstein to second, and you have one Helluva team. Colon is great on a bullpen, and really a joy to watch pitch. This is a very good signing for the Angels that suddenly will have the second best rotation in the AL West in 2004.

    - Quickly, I think the Blue Jays overpaid big on Kerry Ligtenberg, who is nice at $1M per season, not $2.25. The Devil Rays make a nice move by landing Eduardo Perez for cheap, he's used to platooning with Mr. Tino Martinez. The D-Rays are going to land a right fielder (Everett?) by the end of the week, and my Arthur Rhodes prediction stands. David Wells is close to signing with the Yankees, and I think Kenny Lofton will be a Padre before Steinbrenner realizes what he lost.

    - College football suffered a travesty this weekend when the undisputed #1 team, USC, was snubbed from the championship game. The BCS is hardly the best system out there, and this season has ensured its exit from college football after 2005. Oklahoma obviously should have been left out, seeing that they didn't even win their conference championship! For more on this, visit a great site over at mcclusky.com.

    In the end, I think USC will lose to Michigan, and I think Oklahoma beats the piss out of LSU, and gets handed the national championship trophy. Call it Midwest bias, but I would take Michigan against any team in the country and guarantee victory at this point. Here's a look at my Jan. 1 bowl predictions:

    Outback (Iowa v. Florida)- Florida
    Gator (West Virginia v. Maryland)- W. Virginia
    Capital One (Purdue v. Georgia)- Georgia!
    Rose (USC v. Michigan)- Michigan
    Orange (Miami v. Florida St.)- Miami
    Cotton (Ole Miss. v. Oklahoma St.)- Ole Miss
    Peach (Clemson v. Tenn.)- Tennessee
    Fiesta (Kansas State v. Ohio State)- K. State
    Sugar (Oklahoma v. LSU)- Oklahoma

    And, finally I'd like to say I support Eli Manning for the Heisman Trophy. Jason White is a fine choice, although I think Oklahoma's late fall, and the talent White is surrounded with will lead to his demise. Larry Fitzgerald is the best player in the country, but needs someone a little better than Rod Rutherford. Chris Perry was well on his way early on, but I believe didn't even top 50 yds. in one game. So, my default, give it to Eli. Ole Miss isn't a good team, but Manning has built a ferocious passing attack, and a bowl victory.

    - Moving to the other college sport, does anyone notice the craziness that early season college basketball has provided? Duke, UConn, Kansas, MSU are all teams that have failed early on. I've watched a few North Carolina games, and I would take the Tar Heels vs. anyone. But Missouri's Ricky Paulding is the best wing player in the country. And next time Duke is on TV, do yourself a favor and watch Luol Deng play. I can't wait til March!

    - Well, the Magic finally broke their 19-game losing streak in basketball, and the Detroit Tigers get time off as the laughingstock of professional sports. Don't worry Dambrowski, McGrady will get to 15 wins and you'll still be the worst.

    - Playoff predictions:

    NFC: Philly, Carolina, St. Louis, Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay
    AFC: New England, Kansas City, Indy, Baltimore, Denver, Tennessee

    Super Bowl: Indy over Philly

    I'll be back tomorrow.

    WTNYDecember 08, 2003
    Pre-Meetings Forecasting (NL West)
    By Bryan Smith

    While I won't digress into analysis on every deal signed yesterday, I'm going to spend this week looking into where every Major League team currently stands, and looking into where the GMs will have their focus during the Winter Meetings. I start with the NL West...

    San Francisco Giants

    Despite housing the best attendance numbers in the game last season, Giants' GM Brian Sabean was told his 2004 payroll would have to be substantially smaller than the 2003 figure. Sabean has found mid-level veterans to fill every hole, and is almost completely finished heading into the Winter Meetings.

    Yesterday the Giants re-signed J.T. Snow to split the first base job with Pedro Feliz. Snow hit well vs. right-handers last season (.284/.387/.450) and displayed Gold Glove-caliber defense, leading to a one-year, $1.75M contract. Feliz has hit seven home runs off left-handers in the last three seasons, spanning only about 150 at-bats.

    San Francisco also tied up outfielder Michael Tucker to a two-year contract yesterday, spending $3.5M in the process. He will platoon with Jeffrey Hammonds, as Tucker showed an affinity to right-handers last season (.274/.342/.474), while Hammonds hit left-handers very well. Tucker did hit considerably better in Kauffman Stadium (.297/.391/.518), and didn't even hit .230 away from home. The team has also decided not to extend an arbitration offer to Rich Aurilia, deciding that Neifi Perez and Cody Ransom will split duties next season. Pathetic.

    In a trade earlier this offseason Sabean brought in A.J. Pierzynski, and the team will be using Yorvit Torrealba against southpaws. Overall, this is my projected 2004 Giants lineup...

    Giants vs. RHP
    1. Ray Durham- 2B
    2. J.T. Snow- 1B
    3. Marquis Grissom- CF
    4. Barry Bonds- LF
    5. Edgardo Alfonzo- 3B
    6. A.J. Pierzynski- C
    7. Michael Tucker- RF
    8. Neifi Perez- SS

    Giants vs. LHP
    1. Ray Durham- 2B
    2. Jeffrey Hammonds- RF
    3. Marquis Grissom- CF
    4. Barry Bonds- LF
    5. Edgardo Alfonzo- 3B
    6. Pierzynski/Torrealba- C
    7. Pedro Feliz- 1B
    8. Perez/Ransom- SS

    Not a horrible lineup, as Durham and Alfonzo should both build from mediocre 2003 seasons. The pitching staff still has one open hole, which is Sabean's only order of business the rest of the winter. Jason Schmidt currently heads the pack, after what was a sensational Cy Young-type season. Kirk Rueter and Jerome Williams will back up Schmidt, and I fully expect Williams to leapfrog Rueter on the depth chart this season. The fifth slot will be a battle between Dustin Hermanson ,Kevin Correia, and Ryan Jensen, with no one being a clear favorite.

    It will be the fourth slot in the rotation that Sabean must fill, with about $5M to spend. Sidney Ponson will not be back next season, although that's best with rumors of a partially torn labrum. I've always rumored Greg Maddux would be a good fit in San Francisco, and I will maintain with that philosophy. Maddux will get little interest elsewhere, and signing him to a two-year, $10M offer would greatly strengthen this team.

    Despite losing closer Tim Worrell, the Giants bullpen looks to be very formidable in 2004. Robb Nen will return as closer, with longtime set-up man Felix Rodriguez waiting in the wings. Matt Herges signed a two-year, $2.5M deal last week to be the primary right-handed middle reliever. Jim Brower succeeded in a long relief role last season, and should resume those duties next season. The team will hand two left-handed spots to either Scott Eyre, Chad Zerbe, or Jason Christenson, with Zerbe likely the odd man out. If Felipe Alou decides to carry 12 pitchers, one of the losers of the 5th starter slot will be kept on the roster.

    Giants To-Do List= Only to sign one SP, with Greg Maddux my suggestion
    Arizona Diamondbacks

    The 2001 World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks have been busy this winter, already trading Curt Schilling while acquiring a powerful bat in Richie Sexson. The team gave up negotiation rights for Miguel Batista yesterday, severing ties with their #3 starter.

    By acquiring Sexson and dealing Junior Spivey and Criag Counsell, the Diamondbacks have already designed their 2004 offense, barring any substantial changes:

    Diamondback Offense
    1. Alex Cintron- SS
    2. Matt Kata- 2B
    3. Luis Gonzalez- LF
    4. Richie Sexson- 1B
    5. Steve Finley- CF
    6. Shea Hillenbrand- 3B
    7. Danny Bautista- RF
    8. Rod Barajas/Robby Hammock- C

    The team may pursue a bat to compete with Bautista in right field, just as they had Raul Mondesi playing the position in the second half. The pitching staff remains the largest question now that Schilling and Batista are out of the picture. Randy Johnson and Rookie of the Year winner Brandon Webb appear to be locks, although everything else remains cloudy. Garagiola may feel obliged to give spots to Elmer Dessens and Casey Fossum, both big name acquisitions in past trades. I would question these moves, although it's likely the course they will follow.

    The team has discussed moving Oscar Villareal to the starting rotation, but he's likely to stay in the bullpen. The team has John Patterson, Andy Good, Edgar Gonzalez, and Mike Gosling all battling for one spot, as the team hopes to find a diamond in the rough, as they did with Webb last season.

    Matt Mantei will be an expensive closer next season unless Garagiola's efforts to deal the expensive right-hander ever come to fruitition. Jose Valverde had a good season, and will be the set-up man unless Mantei is dealt. Villareal and Mike Koplove are both very good middle relief options, and Steve Randolph emerged as a fine LOOGY last season. Newly acquired southpaw Shane Nance also will make the team, serving as both the second leftie and long reliever.

    Arizona could very well be finished for the offseason, although Garagiola will use any extra money possible to acquire a RF and one more starter, while trying as hard as possible to deal Matt Mantei.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Los Angeles has struggled with direction this offseason, as their long fight to find ownership seems endless. Dan Evans is still working as the General Manager, and has a lot ahead of him to fix an ailing offense. The team will be in the news quite often during the next week connected with Nomar Garciaparra, who will get dealt if Alex Rodriguez agrees to join the Boston Red Sox.

    In the next week I expect the Dodgers to be heavily associated with Miguel Tejada, Vladimir Guerrero, and Nomar, although who they get I don't know. Tejada may be a Mariner early next week, and I've all but accepted the fact Vlad will reunite with Jim Beattie in Baltimore. If the Nomar trade goes down it will be with the Dodgers, but I'd be lying if I said I expected the A-Rod, Nomar, Manny switch to happen. That would leave Dan Evans to a lot of second-tier players, and a lot of options. Wanna get confused? Here's the course of action I would take if I were Evans:

    - Hope Mike Cameron signs with the A's, and then trade Paul Lo Duca to the A's for Mark Kotsay
    - Trade Odalis Perez to the White Sox for Paul Konerko, Danny Wright
    - Sign Pudge Rodriguez
    - Sign a 2nd-tier Lfer like Juan Gonzalez, Raul Mondesi, or Reggie Sanders

    That's the best I can forecast. In reality, the team will battle with the Angels for the services for Rafeal Palmiero, as well as trying to get a good bat for Odalis Perez. Trading him in-division, to the Padres for Phil Nevin may be a good choice. The team re-signed Robin Ventura yesterday, although I think Ventura's skill set has diminished to that of a bench player. I also think the Dodgers will start flirting heavily with Rich Aurilia, as Cesar Itzuris sucks more than anything in the world. Whew! In conclusion, I expect the Dodgers to be after every hitter available, losing out on most. Odalis Perez is a powerful weapon, but in the end he may just bring in a player like J.D. Drew or Paul Konerko.

    The pitching staff will be Nomo, Brown, Edwin Jackson, Kaz Ishii, and Darren Dreifort, with Joel Hanrahan waiting in the wings if anyone fails. Wilson Alvarez may be brought back, although I think the team should spend every penny available on hitting. The bullpen will have Gagne, Shuey, and Mota from the right side, with Tom Martin and Victor Alvarez from the left. And the Dodgers will be in 4th place next season, sitting snug between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the...

    Colorado Rockies

    The Rockies will be in financial troubles the next few seasons as Charles Johnson, Todd Helton, Preston Wilson, Larry Walker, and Denny Neagle are tying up lots of money on this team. Dan O'Dowd has failed time and time again at making them a winner, and stands second to Chuck LaMar as GMs who need to move on.

    I was in favor of the Uribe for Aaron Miles trade last week, and I write before you as the same man today. If you asked me what the Rockies 2004 lineup should be, I would give you this:

    1. Mark Bellhorn- SS
    2. Aaron Miles- 2B
    3. Todd Helton- 1B
    4. Preston Wilson- CF
    5. Larry Walker- RF
    6. Rene Reyes- LF
    7. Charles Johnson- C
    8. Garrett Atkins- 3B

    The team will listen to my plea to non-tender Jay Payton, although it's doubtful they'll go to Spring Training with Bellhorn and Atkins penciled in on the left side. The rumors that are currently the most popular are Vinny Castilla and Deivi Cruz, who would likely cost about $3M next season. Any hitter can perform in Coors, and Atkins is just as likely to win the Rookie of the Year as Castilla is to reverting to the stats he posted in the 1990s.

    For a club with such bad starting rotation, I've yet to hear the Rockies in any rumor for a starter this offseason. The team has Denny Neagle, Jason Jennings, Shawn Chacon, Chin-Hui Tsao, and Scott Elarton penciled in so far, with Jason Young, Aaron Cook, and Adam Bernero waiting in the wings. That's a pretty bad group, and I think the team would be better without Neagle or Elarton pitching every fifth day. But, the team is content with that group, and instead appear to be in the market for a closer.

    After losing out on Rod Beck, the newest rumors are that the Rockies are considering Armando Benitez and Antonio Alfonseca in the closer's role. And to that, I ask why? The team is just as likely to succeed with Justin Speier in the role than Alfonseca, and it wouldn't cost the extra $1M that should be spent on starters. I really like the pair of Brian Fuentes and Javy Lopez on the left side, and I think Speier and Steve Reed is a nice combo as well. Adam Bernero will probably become the team's long reliever, and in the end, O'Dowd will spend money towards a bad reliever.

    Names you'll hear associated with the Rockies in the coming weeks: Vinny Castilla, Jeff Cirillo, Deivi Cruz, Rich Aurilia, Antonio Alfonseca, and Armando Benitez.

    San Diego Padres

    Despite winning only 64 games last season, Kevin Towers has managed to put the Padres on the list of favorites next season, thanks to key acquisitions like Brian Giles and Ramon Hernandez. The team has unfinished business for the rest of the offseason, but appear to be heading in the right direction.

    San Diego already has the offense to win this division next season, although their current team would lack a lot defensively. Going to Spring Training with an estimated outfield of Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles, and Xavier Nady could result in disaster, precisely the reason the team is interested in Kenny Lofton and Mike Cameron. Lofton would be the leadoff bat the team desperately needs, as well as providing enough centerfield defense to get by. They could then trade Phil Nevin to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez, although that likely won't happen. Instead Nady will become the team's 4th outfielder, and the Padres will use this lineup:

    1. Lofton- CF
    2. Mark Loretta- 2B
    3. Ryan Klesko- LF
    4. Brian Giles- RF
    5. Phil Nevin- 1B
    6. Ramon Hernandez- C
    7. Sean Burroughs- 3B
    8. Khalil Greene- SS

    That is a very impressive team. I would still worry about their defense, but Towers is currently assessing that problem. To acquire Hernandez the team had to take on Terrence Long, and Long's name has been hot in rumors in the past weeks. The New York Mets are looking to rid themselves of Roger Cedeno, so Towers has presented a Long and Kevin Jarvis offer for Cedeno. While I hate Roger more than any other Major Leaguer, his limited skill set might do well in San Diego, coming in as a pinch runner and defensive replacement on the corners.

    Also, the Padres' pitching staff still needs tweaking. Brian Lawrence, Jake Peavy, and Adam Eaton are a fantastic threesome, although the team wants a left-hander to go with these youngsters. David Wells, Chuck Finley, and Wilson Alvarez are the most popular rumors, and Wells makes the most sense. Neither the Yankees or Padres appear to be ready to offer Wells a guaranteed contract, but he's much more likely to catch on in San Diego. The team would then give their last spot to Ben Howard, a 24-year-old whom succeeded in September.

    Trevor Hoffman will be back as closer next season, although Rod Beck re-signed to push Hoffman. The team also has negotiating rights to a Japanese right-hander, who will team with Scott Linebrink and Jay Witasick in middle relief. The team has Mike Mathews and Kevin Walker to pitch against left-handers currently, those Peter Gammons is reporting the team is looking to trade for a LOOGY.

    With these moves, I would guarantee victory for the Padres in 2004:

    1. Sign Kenny Lofton and David Wells to guaranteed contracts
    2. Trade Phil Nevin for Odalis Perez
    3. Find a way to complete the Long and Jarvis for Cedeno trade
    4. Deal Ramon Vazquez to the Red Sox for Scott Sauerbeck

    Peace. I'll be back with the NL Central tomorrow.

    WTNYDecember 05, 2003
    Cubs Organizational Meeting
    By Bryan Smith

    Although it has been awhile since the last Organizational Meeting, the fantastic Cub Reporter Christian Ruzich agreed to answer my questions about our Cubbies. In case you missed it, I wrote about my 2004 Cubs Thursday.

    I have two posts today, this one you're reading, and my thoughts on the Javier Vazquez to the Yankees trade. Christian has been working on a new site, entitled The Transaction Guy, and it's a must-read for any signing, trade, or release. The movie-scene piece he wrote on the Javier Vazquez trade was one of the funniest pieces of work I've ever read about baseball, so check that out. But for now, here is the Cubs Organizational Meeting with the Cub Reporter:

    Wait 'Til Next Year: 1. Is Derrek Lee enough to supply the offense, and was it right for Hendry to key in on first base? Specifically, what else should be done to boost an offense that was oftentimes enemic in 2003?

    The Cub Reporter: I don't know if he's "enough," but he's a nice addition. Slotting him in the middle of the lineup along with Sammy, Moises and Aramis gives the Cubs a nice, if righty-heavy, 3-6.

    Asking whether it was "right" for Hendry to key in on first base isn't the question that interests me, though. The question that interests me is, should Hendry try to fix specific holes in the team, or should he try to get the best value available on the market? I think the answer is the latter, and that's what Hendry did. I think he did the right thing by trading for Lee rather than passing up the opportunity because he was solely focused on getting a second baseman or upgrading at catcher or #5 starter.

    As far as what else should be done, a left-handed hitter would be nice, and if that lefty could get on base, all the better. The Cubs are pretty set at every position around the diamond except second base, and the pickings of left-handed hitting second basemen is pretty slim. Todd Walker, Brian Roberts, and Adam Kennedy are all basically league-average offensively. Forced to pick from among those guys, I'd go for Kennedy -- it was nice to see him take more walks this year so that his OBP stayed constant even though his average dipped over 40 points. If the Cubs go into the 2004 season with a no-name player at second, though (a minor league call-up or someone who wins the job off an NRI in Spring Training), it wouldn't be such a bad thing.

    WTNY: 2. Obviously, starting pitching isn't a worry for the Cubs, although there is a small debate over the 5th starter spot. Some say Cruz. Others like Sterling Hitchcock. Andy Pettite, Eric Milton, Jarrod Washburn, even Shawn Estes are the different names I've heard attached to the final slot. Who should get it, and why?

    TCR: Starting pitching is always a worry. Pitchers get hurt; that's just the way it is. One of the reasons the Cubs won the division last year is how few starts their 1-4 starters missed. I don't think there's any way that's going to happen again -- chances are someone's going to get hurt and miss some time.

    As far as who should be the #5, out of the guys on your list I'd say Cruz, if he's still on the team come Opening Day. I mean, I'd love to see the Cubs sign Greg Maddux, because then everyone slides down a notch and you have Carlos Zambrano as your #5. But unless TribCo really is letting the Cubs spend Yankee money, I don't see that happening. So, you look on the market for low- to mid-range starters, and there's nothing too enticing. Fifth starter is not a position that you want to lay out multiple millions of dollars to fill. This is a situation where someone may come into camp on a non-guaranteed or incentive-laden contract and find themselves in the rotation. The Cardinals are hoping it works with Chris Carpenter, and that's a model I'd like to see the Cubs follow. There are plenty of guys who will be non-tendered in a few days, and I'm certain one of them will make a passable fifth starter.

    WTNY: 3. Between 2002 and 2003, Jim Hendry worked hard to fix the bullpen, how'd he do? Who should fill the shoes left open from Veres and Alfonseca? Was it the right decision to decline Guthrie's option and who fills his slot? Finally, is JoeBo a real 9th inning pitcher, or should he be in a different role?

    TCR: He didn't do too bad. It's easy to focus on blown opportunities, but look at the final numbers for the guys who got the bulk of the work in the pen:

    Borowski: 68 1/3 IP, 53 H, 19 BB, 66 K
    Farnsworth: 76 1/3 IP, 53 H, 36 BB, 92 K
    Remlinger: 69 IP, 54 H, 39 BB, 83 K
    Guthrie: 42 2/3 IP, 40 H, 22 BB, 24 K
    Veres: 32 2/3 IP, 36 H, 5 BB, 26 K

    That's not the whole picture, of course, because it leaves off Alfonseca, who did not pitch well. As a group, they gave up too many home runs, too, but overall they were good.

    Of course, they better have been good, because they were expensive. The question of who should replace Alfonseca has been answered, and answered well, by LaTroy Hawkins, who will be cheaper and most likely better than Pulpo. As far as who should replace Veres, well, 3rd righty out of the 'pen is another position I don't think Hendry should give that much thought to. It might be good to get Todd Wellemeyer some more major-league experience, or once again there should be some decent pitchers on the bone pile later this winter.

    WTNY: 4. Dusty Baker came with great reviews before last season, although he caught significant flak from Cub fans. Explain Baker's strengths and weaknesses as a manager?

    TCR: Because I'm lazy, I'll point to a column I wrote on The Cub Reporter when Baker was hired:

    http://www.all-baseball.com/cubreporter/archives/2002_11.html#000707

    The short version:

    PRO: Good motivator, Good at managing difficult egos, trusts his veterans
    CON: Prefers veteran position players over young players, bench and roster management is suspect, thin-skinned regarding media criticism

    I stand by all of those except the last one, though it's possible that he's still enjoying a honeymoon from the Chicago press. Winning will do that for a guy.

    WTNY: 5. How did Jim Hendry do for midseason acquisitions? Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, Randall Simon, Jose Hernandez, Tony Womack, Doug Glanville are all names he acquired at various points. Given such a weak free agent market for 3B, how big was the Ramirez deal, and what do you foresee in 2004?

    TCR: He did very well, but I'm not sure I'd give him too much credit. Lofton and Ramirez played very well, and were available because Pittsburgh needed to dump salary. I will say that it appears we were all wrong, and Hendry was right, about Bobby Hill. He may still turn out to be a decent player, but I don't think there's any way he's going to live up to the hype he received as a minor-leaguer. If that turns out to be the case, then kudos to Hendry for turning him into Aramis Ramirez, who has a very high ceiling and not a very big contract. The rest of the guys that were acquired were a mix of good (Simon), bad (Hernandez), and ugly (Womack), with the Sausage King of Chicago alternately thrilling and frustrating us as he swung at every pitch he saw. Luckily for the Cubs, he hit a lot of them, but I wouldn't bank on that happening again.

    I have a theory that Hendry is learning Dusty's strengths and weaknesses and filling up the roster in such a way that accentuates the former and minimizes the latter. Dusty won't play young kids, so it's up to Hendry to find the right kind of veterans so that when Dusty reaches for them, they don't hurt the team. The Choi-for-Lee trade is a perfect example of that.

    WTNY: 6. The bench was a big problem for the Cubs in 2003, as Lenny Harris and Troy O'Leary got way too many at-bats. Any ideas of how to use those slots next year?

    TCR: I have lots of ideas, but none of them are going to come to fruition. What we're going to see, I think, is the same result with a different cast. Baker has never used his bench well, and unless Hendry convinces people like Kenny Lofton or Jose Cruz to accept bench roles, we're going to see more Harris/O'Leary types. Ideally, I'd like to see those spots filled with cheap guys out of the Cubs system, like Dave Kelton and Phil Hiatt, but I think we're much more likely to see Tom Goodwin or Chris Singleton. I guess because they're Proven Veterans, they're the kind of guys Dusty is comfortable with.

    WTNY: 7. Give readers an idea of the Cubs farm system, and the Major League ready youngsters, like Wellemeyer, Mitre, and Juan Cruz.

    TCR: I'd say it's good on the pitching side and weak-to-average on the hitting side. I'm not an expert on minor-league players -- for that info, I go to BaseballAmerica.com, TheProspectReport.com, and guys like Bryan Stroh. He put up a Cubs Top 30 list last year and I'm hoping to have this year's installment on The Cub Reporter within the next few weeks.

    The three guys you mention might not actually be in the top 10 Cubs prospects. In fact, according to Baseball America, they aren't. Baseball America says the top 10 are Angel Guzman, Justin Jones, Ryan Harvey, Andy Sisco, Felix Pie, Bobby Brownlie, Chadd Blasko, Brendan Harris, David Kelton, and Jae-Kuk Ryu. It's got to be a nice feeling for Hendry to know that he's got that many potentially good arms in the minors -- some of these guys will definitely be traded away for players who can help the team right now, and it's exciting to think that the Cubs could trade 2 or 3 top-10 pitching prospects and still have 4 or 5 left.

    WTNY: 8. Give a step-by-step offseason to-do list for Jim Hendry.

    TCR: That's tough. There are so many factors that fans, even ones who pay as much attention as we do, aren't privvy to. It's presumptuous of me to think that I know what options are available to him. I'm much more comfortable examining specific situations and reacting to them, since without all the information the "big picture" I see is incomplete. Forced to make a list, I guess I'd say:

    1. Settle the second base situation, either by signing someone or deciding to let it be a Spring Training decision.
    2. Get a solid #4 outfielder, preferrably one who hits lefty, and dont pay more than $1.5M for him.
    3. Wrap Mark Prior in bubble wrap and tell him not to move until mid-February.
    4. Issue a whole bunch of Spring Training invites for back-end starting pitchers and let 'em duke it out.
    5. Buy me a drink at The Pink Pony in March.
    If he does all five of those things, I'll be a happy Cub fan.

    WTNY: I'd like to thank Christian Ruzich for his time, and to remind every of the Wait 'Til Next Year Cub-approved acquisitions:

    Javy Lopez- C
    Jerry Hairston- 2B
    Bench: John Vander Wal, Geoff Blum, Orlando Palmiero
    Scott Sullivan- RHP
    Mike Myers- LHP
    5th starter/Long Relief NRI: Glendon Rusch

    Have a good weekend, and be sure to check out the Javier Vazquez trade breakdown right below this piece.

    WTNYDecember 05, 2003
    Yankees counter Schilling
    By Bryan Smith

    I hope everyone enjoyed the Cubs Organizational Meeting above, but I wanted to address the Vazquez trade for the weekend as well. Officially, the Yankees sent Montreal 1B Nick Johnson, OF Juan Rivera, and LHP Randy Choate in exchange for their ace. First, here are a few of Javier's 2003 splits:

    Overall: 13-12 3.24 198/230.2 241/57
    Home: 9-4 3.29 116/126 134/26
    Road: 4-8 3.18 82/104.2 107/31
    Pre-ASB: 6-6 3.95 114/125.1 139/35
    Post-ASB: 7-6 2.39 84/105.1 102/22

    Vazquez was sensational last season, especially during the second half of the season. He pitched better on the road, despite a .333 winning percentage, largely due to the Expos' enemic road offense. Vazquez did see his strikeout rate plummet a bit in the second halh, although his K/BB, BB/9, and H/9 rates all improved. He's a workhorse, similar to Curt Schilling, and it wouldn't suprise me for Vazquez to out pitch Schilling from Boston. As it stands, this is the 2004 New York Yankees starting lineup, assuming Andy Pettite remains a Yankee...

    1. Mike Mussina- RHP
    2. Andy Pettite- LHP
    3. Javier Vazquez- RHP
    4. Jose Contreras- RHP
    5. Jon Lieber/Jeff Weaver- RHP

    Pettite along with one more hitter is basically everything the Yankees have left this offseason, and I expect both to be finished within a week. Kenny Lofton should soon accept a full-time job as the Yankees center fielder, giving the team this lineup:

    1. Kenny Lofton- CF- LH
    2. Derek Jeter- SS- RH
    3. Jorge Posada- C- SH
    4. Gary Sheffield- RF- RH
    5. Jason Giambi- 1B- LH
    6. Alfonso Soriano- 2B- RH
    7. Hideki Matsui- LF- LH
    8. Bernie Williams- DH- SH
    9. Aaron Boone- 3B- RH

    The Yankees will have amazing balance, and should benefit from having Lofton and Jeter at the top, rather than Soriano and Jeter. Luis Castillo was probably the Boss' first choice, but Sheffield and Vazquez were simply higher on the priority list. This team is very compareable to Boston's lineup, if not superior. And the Bronx Bombers' have already completed their 2004 bullpen, which looks like this:

    CL- Mariano Rivera
    SU- Tom Gordon
    RH- Paul Quantrill
    RH- Steve Karsay
    LH- Chris Hammond
    LH- Felix Heredia
    Long- Lieber/Weaver/Bret Prinz

    Enough about the Yankees already. For moving so much money, I really like how the Expos did in this deal, adding a lot of offense in Johnson, along with a former #1 prospect and possible replacement for Guerrero in Juan Rivera. Randy Choate may allow the team to non-tender Scott Stewart, becoming the team's second leftie out of the bullpen. First, here are a few numbers of the three:

    Johnson: .284/.422/.472
    Vs. RH: .285/.429/.482 Vs. LH: .282/.393/.437
    Home: .287/.412/.507 Road: .282/.430/.443
    Pre-ASB: .305/.455/.517 Post-ASB: .270/.402/.446

    Rivera: .266/.304/.468
    Vs. RH: .236/.282/.390 Vs. LH: .340/.358/.604
    Home: .294/.324/.510 Road: .225/.276/.408
    In 325 AAA AB: .325/.374/.461

    Choate in 54 AAA appearances: 3-5 3.91 75/71.1 56/24

    Johnson has already become a fantastic hitter, and his power numbers may have been higher if not for injury. He has no real platoon split, and I would ignore his slightly lesser road and post-break numebrs. He is also a former top prospect of the Yankees, and should immedietly become the Expos' clean-up hitter, assuming Vladimir Guerrero leaves the team.

    Rivera had a somewhat disappointing seson, although he hit well in AAA. He rakes left-handed pitchers well, and hopefully he'll adjust from not playing in Yankee Stadium anymore. Rivera will battle with Terrmel Sledge for the right-field spot, although Sledge is also competing for CF with Endy Chavez. Brad Wilkerson is in left, and should be primed for a big 2004. The infield will contain Johnson, Jose Vidro, and Orlando Cabrera, and the third base and catching positions are still up in the air.

    Losing Guerrero and Vazquez gives Omar Minaya a little economic wiggle room, as he will be able to keep the majority of the other players from that 2003 team. Don't be suprised to see El Duque, Tomo Ohka, and Scott Stewart non-tendered, although that may be it. This Expos team will finish fourth next season, although their future just got brighter with Johnson and Rivera. I would offer Jose Vidro a long-term deal now, as he has suddenly become the team's best player.

    That's it for the weekend, I'll be back Monday, during which we should have some big news to talk about. Until then, keep your eye on Pudge Rodriguez and the Marlins.

    WTNYDecember 04, 2003
    Phils Philling Roster
    By Bryan Smith

    I expect the Ruzich Meeting to be up tomorrow now, so today I thought I'd put my two sense into every transaction I could get my hands on. I got a lot of mixed response from the Cubs post yesterday, which is always appreciated.

    In their quest to ensure themselves the 2004 NL East crown, the Phillies traded for Eric Milton yesterday, officially ending their quest for Kevin Millwood. Here's a look at some Milton splits:

    Milton 2003: 1-0 2.65 15/17 7/1
    Milton 3-Year: 29-16 4.47 410/408.2 285/92
    Home: 16-10 4.28 214/218.2 169/46
    Road: 13-6 4.69 196/190 116/46

    Eric had limited time in 2003, so I thought it would be more valubale to show some 3-year numbers. Milton preferred the Metrodome, but did pretty well in the Majors last season. I wouldn't be suprised to see him match 3-year ERA mark of 4.47ERA with the Phillies, which would definitely put him fourth in the rotation. One interesting Spring Training battle will be that between Amaury Telemaco and Ryan Madson for the fifth spot. This was purely a salary dump for the Twins, as they only got Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, and a future minor leaguer in the deal. Here are stats for Silva and Pinto...

    Silva: 4.43 92/87.1 48/37
    Vs. RH: .266/.349/.407 Vs. LH: .300/.376/.438
    Home: 3.27 39/44 25/18 Road: 5.61 53/43.1 23/19
    Pre-ASB: 3.62 54/54.2 26/23 Post-ASB: 5.79 38/32.2 22/14

    Punto MLB: .217/.273/.272
    Punto AAA: .315/.353/.396

    Silva should be used primarily against right-handers, but I think he could still be pretty useful as a reliever. He's not a bad middle reliever, and the Metrodome is quite similar to what Veterans Stadium provided him. I'm worried his second half numbers might be indicative of 2004, but at least Jesse Crain will be ready by then. Punto sucks, but the team may let him replace the Denny Hocking officially worthless bench spot. If not, he'll be a regular in Rochester.

    The Twins now have a lot more money to spend this offseason, and it will go at Shannon Stewart, Eddie Guardado, and one veteran starter. Jacque Jones and Doug Mientkiewicz are both rumored to be on the trade block, and I think the Braves would make a perfect fit for them. Minnesota could easily land their fifth starter from the Braves, along with some more depth for the farm system. With Stewart I like their lineup, and with Guardado I would like their bullpen. Romero should bounce back next season, and Nathan was one of the best relievers in baseball against right-handers. We'll see...

    Meanwhile, the team that took the Twins out of the playoffs, the Bronx Bombers, continue to strengthen their bullpen. After adding Tom Gordon earlier in the week, Paul Quantrill and Felix Heredia were both signed yesterday. Here's a look at that pair:

    Quantrill: 1.75 61/77.1 44/15
    Vs. RH: .243/.267/.306 Vs. LH: .198/.279/.260
    Home: 1.86 27/38.2 22/10 Road: 1.63 34/38.2 22/5
    Pre-ASB: 1.40 32/45 27/8 Post-ASB: 2.23 29/32.1 17/7

    Heredia: 2.69 74/87 45/33
    Vs. RH: .225/.310/.335 Vs. LH: .233/.282/.459
    In AL: 1.20 13/15 4/5

    I like Quantrill a lot, and I expect his ERA to be in the 2.50 range next season. Steve Karsay really will be eased back into relieving, as Gordon and Quantrill take over in set-up and right-handed relief roles. I hate Heredia, and I truely hope that move blows up in their faces. My guess is in 2005 that Steinbrenner will really regret carrying lefties Chris Hammond and Felix Heredia on his roster. Both should have ERAs in the 4.00s next season. Dollars towards the 2005 team keep getting racked up, and they'll already have about $120M spent there when Sheffield signs. Jay Jaffe at the Futility Infielder has kept watch of this, and I frequently check his page for that info. I also hear the Yanks are close to signing Kenny Lofton in the outfield, which would probably trigger a Javier Vazquez deal when the Winter Meetings role around.

    Onto lesser important moves, Brian Sabean re-signed a couple of free agent Giants before the December 7 arbitration deadline, keeping Dustin Hermanson and Jeffrey Hammonds for under one million. Hermanson will battle for a rotation slot with Kevin Correia, and Hammonds will likely be kept in a 4th OF role. Both showed some life in San Fran, as evident by these stats:

    Hermanson: 3-3 4.06 70/68.2 39/24
    As Starter: 2-1 2.97 30/33.1 22/10

    Hammonds: .242/.329/.424
    With SF: .277/.370/.479

    What Sabean does the rest of the offseason is one of the more interesting cases to watch, as this team will need a 1B, SS, and RF at different points. I still think Greg Maddux ends up here, although I really have no evidence off which I base that. Yesterday I touched on a Rockies trade in which they dealt Juan Uribe for Aaron Miles, and I wanted to expand today, first with some stats:

    Uribe Career: .258/.298/.408
    Career Home: .288/.324/.468 Road: .227/.271/.345

    2003 Miles AAA: .304/.351/.445
    2002 Miles AA: .322/.369/.450

    Uribe's career consists of about 1150 AB, or two full seasons. Ken Williams should learn Allan Baird's lesson not to acquire former Rockie middle infielders, and Uribe looks like a poor man's Neifi Perez. Ouch. If the White Sox fully intend to make him their shortstop next season, I will begin a countdown until Willie Harris moves Valentin back to short. I mean, god, Uribe's terrible.

    But, maybe I'm slanted on this deal, as I love Aaron Miles. His last two minor league seasons have been fantastic. He's hit well over .300, smacked more than 30 doubles, 10 home runs, and walked 40 times. He runs the bases with instincts, and plays pretty good defense. I love the thought of what Coors Field may bring him, especially in his forthcoming peak seasons. If Miles gets the second base job in Colorado, he will be a nice $1 pick in fantasy leagues, a.k.a. a good last round choice.

    Onto a few rumors...

    - Kevin Brown will not end up a Yankee unless the Bombers add to that package. Nick Johnson and Jeff Weaver might get the deal done, and then I would really support the trade for Los Angeles. The team doesn't realize what Dodger Stadium can do for pitchers, and Weaver would immedietly become a breakout candidate. Johnson would hit a lot of doubles in Los Angeles, and provide some cheap, much needed offense for the team. They will not acquire Carlos Beltran, contrary to many rumors flying around the Internet. There's no fit for these two teams, and the Royals really are going to keep Beltran.

    - Speaking of Kansas City, Peter Gammons reports the team could sign Raul Mondesi and Benito Santiago as early as today or next Monday. Mondesi would probably play right, moving Aaron Guiel to left field. Both are iffy additions, but after the Twins and White Sox decreases, the Royals may become the '04 favorite.

    - Terry Francona will be named Red Sox manager this week, although that won't come as a suprise to many Red Sox fans. The real question floating Yawkey Way is if Keith Foulke will be joining his 2003 bench coach in Beantown. I'm guessing no, after which I'll make fun of Billy Beane for paying a closer.

    - The only other story I advocate following this weekend is Pudge Rodriguez, as we know by Sunday whether or not he remains a Marlin. I would think yes, and the team will probably sign a two-year, $16M deal with him this weekend. That's going to be a pretty solid team, but the Phillies are still the favorites.

    Check back tomorrow for the Cubs Meeting, and I'll be spending the day in the doctor's office. Ugh...

    WTNYDecember 03, 2003
    Bleeding Cubbie Blue
    By Bryan Smith

    To all those that don't know...I'm a Cubs fan. There were days when I tried to keep this away from readers, when I swore I would keep a professional stance on my writing. But, I've discovered the blogging world is meant for being personal, so I've admitted my allegiance to Cubbie Blue. I'll have the great Christian Ruzich in for an Organizational Meeting as early as tomorrow, but I wanted to write my piece on the Cubs first. Enjoy.

    While the pain of the Cubs losses still burns in the hearts of Cubs fans, Jim Hendry has moved on, already optimistic about next season. Hendry proved during the 2003 season he would be willing to acquire any player at any time to improve this team, shown by the Cubs six midseason acquisitions. Chicago traded for Derrek Lee last week, indicating they are willing to forego their future and go for it in 2004. While many criticized the Cubs for the move, no one can deny their urgency to win. Yesterday, the AP announced the Cubs have signed LaTroy Hawkins to a three-year, $11M deal. This will give Jim Hendry $15M to spend on free agents, which I will discuss in more detail in this article. First, a few of Hawkins' numbers:

    Hawkins: 74G 1.86 69H/77.1IP 74K/15BB
    Vs. RH: .263/.287/.322 Vs. LH: .205/.257/.320
    Home: 1.21ERA 42/44.2 48/7 Road: 2.76ERA 27/32.2 27/8
    Pre-ASB: 2.56 42/45.2 53/10 Post-ASB: 0.85 27/31.2 22/5

    Interesting numbers. Hawkins actually had a reverse-platoon split last season, pitching better against left-handers. He has always pitched very well in the Metrodome, so I would be suprised to see his ERA stay under 2.00 this season. But, his numbers after the break were fantastic, despite a K/9 rate that suffered a big drop from the first half. Anyway, here's a look at the rightie/leftie splits of those in the bullpen right now:

    Borowski: .204/.272/.243 vs. RH .212/.243/.365 vs. LH
    Farnsworth: .199/.280/.315 vs. RH .189/.295/.256 vs. LH
    Remlinger: .180/.301/.323 vs. RH .263/.343/.442 vs. LH
    Hawkins: .263/.287/.322 vs. RH .205/.257/.320 vs. LH

    Surprisingly Farnsworth, Remlinger, and Hawkins all showed reverse-platoon splits last season, with Remlinger's being the largest. While his changeup works wonders against right-handers, lefties have an easier time picking it up. Last season's second LOOGY, Mark Guthrie, fared no better against left-handers (.280/.385/.480), which often posed a problem. The team will need a LOOGY able to stabilize left-handers this season, as Dusty Baker is more apt to go LH vs. LH than bringing in Farnsworth. Also, it appears Hawkins will work in the 8th, Remlinger in the 7th, and Farnsworth's role is up in the air. He'll likely stay in one-inning roles, and the Cubs will have a bullpen that doesn't force the starting rotation to pitch so much. The team's other bullpen need appears to be a multi-inning reliever, one that takes out right-handers very well. On to my choices...

    Second LOOGY: Mike Myers
    Middle Reliever: Scott Sullivan

    Myers will be the less popular of the choices, as he has come off a season with a 5.70ERA. Looking at his career numbers, he tends to bounce back quite often, and also looks like the product of managerial misuse. Myers, a side-armed southpaw, retired lefties well this season (.237/.314/.421), but was horrendous against right-handers (.290/.430/.377). The Cubs bullpen will be deep enough so that Dusty Baker could never allow him to face a right-hander, which should push Myers' ERA down to a more reasonable amount. Also, coming off such a bad season, Myers will be cheap, likely signing for under one million.

    Sullivan should be a little more sought after, as he's pitched in at least 59 games in every season since 1997. He was a killer against right-handers last season (.187/.300/.313), and can pitch in every role imaginable. Sullivan is the quintessential middle reliever, so I expect his services to be courted more than Myers. If the Cubs end up paying Scott $2M per season, don't be alarmed, he's worth it.

    The bullpen was only a minor concern last season, especially considering the struggles an often-enemic Cubs offense endured. Chicago finished 9th in the NL in runs scored, and that would have been worse if not for the deadline acquisitions of Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton. Lee will help, adding another big bat to the lineup, although fans worry the team will be far too right-handed. Let's consider what they have now, leaving second base out of the equation:

    D. Miller: .226/.300/.391 vs. RH .248/.333/.321 vs. LH
    D. Lee: .256/.358/.486 vs. RH .333/.462/.600 vs. LH
    A. Gonzalez: .228/.293/.416 vs. RH .228/.301/.382 vs. LH
    A. Ramirez: .268/.324/.436 vs. RH .285/.322/.562 vs. LH
    M. Alou: .260/.346/.432 vs. RH .346/.399/.567 vs. LH
    C. Patterson:.301/.333/.527 vs. RH .289/.316/.468 vs. LH
    S. Sosa: .265/.336/.549 vs. RH .333/.440/.571 vs. LH

    Well, that's quite the split. When adding cumulatively, the current Cub 7 has a .257 average against right-handers, and they bat .294 against lefties. But I must say Damian Miller and Alex Gonzalez drag that ranking down, and one should be removed from the starting lineup. Miller would make more sense, as Gonzalez provides Gold Glove defense, along with very timely hitting. But, first and foremost, the Cubs need a leadoff hitter.

    We've already said that the team lacks a second basemen, and that the team is missing a true leadoff hitter. The best that was on the market, Luis Castillo, signed a three-year lucrative deal with the Marlins yesterday. That leaves little available through free agency, as Todd Walker and Fernando Vina aren't very exciting options. The trade market is the most logical place to find the right player, and many point to either Ray Durham, Jose Vidro, or a pair of Baltimore middle infielders.

    Ray Durham and Jose Vidro are both expensive players, each commanding well over $5M next season. Both would be quite expensive through trades, with either Farnsworth or Juan Cruz likely being a necessary part of each deal. But, each has their flaws, which include Durham's non-productivity away from Pac Bell, and Vidro not fitting the role the Cubs need. I feel a very good option can be found in Baltimore, in which the Cubs would pay little monetarily and in trade value, but still find the right player to fill the void. Who is that? Jerry Hairston Jr.

    Hairston finished the season with modest numbers (.271/.353/.372), although a broken bone in his right foot raise a lot of "What If" questions. Such as, what if Hairston hadn't gotten injured, and continued on his superb April (.298/.394/.452 9SB)? He's right-handed, although each of the last two seasons has shown a preference for right-handed pitching. He is a very good baserunner, likely good for 40SB if his foot doesn't bother him again. Furthermore, Hairston is the son of a ballplayer, grew up in Chicago's western suburbs, and played ball at Southern Illinois. While Hairston's name may not pop into your head when you think of prototypical leadoff men, for a small, replaceable cost like Dave Kelton and Sergio Mitre, why not give it a try?

    If the team takes my advice at second base and to fill out the bullpen, we're looking at about $11M left for Jim Hendry to either add a better 5th starter, another bat, or God's bench. My choice? One more bat. As I showed earlier, Damian Miller was a hazard to our lineup, and Paul Bako (arbitration-eligible) should be non-tendered. The market for 2B is extremely small, as the Twins and A's traded their catchers for teams in need, just to go for players payed at the minimum. Florida will either go with Pudge or Ramon Castro, and the Orioles are much too worried about Vladimir Guerrero than their 2004 catcher. That puts Jim Hendry in the driver's seat, and all available catchers seeing their price decline.

    Javy Lopez set the single-season home run record for catchers in 2003, but is likely frustrated by a lack of phone calls. I mean, he just turned 33, and catcher's can't hit into their thirties, right? Well, it's a hard theory to argue, but I propose we test it. Lopez would be a gamble, but with Miller at back-up and millions to spend, it's one Hendry can afford to lose. I mean, Javy didn't quite break down in the second half (.357/.411/.755), did he? And while some will roll their eyes that this is just another right-handed bat, I can fight that. It would be a worry if the Cubs were very susceptible to right-handed pitching, but by bringing in Hairston and Lopez, that strengthens our team...

    Lopez vs. RH: .326/.379/.611
    Lopez vs. LH: .336/.373/.718

    Barring even a small letdown, Lopez would be much better against right-handers than Miller, and we would be looking at a group of position players that looks like this:

    C- Javy Lopez
    1B- Derrek Lee
    2B- Jerry Hairston
    SS- Alex Gonzalez
    3B- Aramis Ramirez
    LF- Moises Alou
    CF- Corey Patterson
    RF- Sammy Sosa

    That's a very solid lineup, and after throwing in the numbers we would bat an estimated .269 against right-handers, and .303 vs. southpaws. While that's an improvement, it would definitely call for a bench that favors right-handers, and one that is heavy with left-handed bats. I have said keep Damian Miller, and I advocate retaining Ramon Martinez as our main right-handed bat off the bench. But, I pressure Hendry to not give into temptation, and to non-tender Randall Simon if he can't be inserted in the Jerry Hairston deal. Assuming the bench has five members, we would need another versatile infielder, a corner player with a good left-handed bat, and an outfielder capable of all three positions. My choices:

    Jeff Vander Wal
    Orlando Palmiero
    Geoff Blum

    Coincidence that I choose three NL Central players? Well, kinda. Vander Wal is a nice fit, as I expect Matt Stairs to sign a lucrative deal to start somewhere else. Vander Wal could be had for a cool million, and he'd be an asset off the bench. He has experience with first, left, and right, and he's left-handed. Last season Vander Wal hit .270/.363/.502 against right-handers, compared to only .158/.256/.211 against southpaws. He has tons of experience pinch hitting, a World Series ring, and he could give Lee and Alou days off when the time calls.

    Palmiero played a pretty significant role with the Cardinals last season, appearing in more than 140 games and finishing with 300+ AB. He also has World Series experience with the 2002 Angels, in which he also served as a fourth outfielder. Palmiero isn't particularly fast, but he plays center and right very well, and has a solid arm. He's also left-handed, and has a drastic affinity for right-handers, .290/.358/.378 vs. .182/.224/.200. Palmiero will never supply a lot of power, but he's a good defensive replacement, and won't embarass himself starting for Patterson if needed in April.

    Finally, Geoff Blum has reportedly caught the eye of the Cubs, and I will advocate the signing if the dollar figure doesn't get out of hand. With Morgan Ensberg's emergence and Jose Vizcaino's fat paycheck, it's expected the Astros will non-tender Blum, who was platooning at third early in the season. While Blum is a switch-hitter, his .704 OPS vs. right-handers nearly doubles the pathetic .362 mark he posted against lefties. Blum can man the corners, and has experience at second base as well. In conclusion, a bench of Miller, Martinez, Vander Wal, Palmiero, and Blum would appeal to the Cubs' needs, and come very cheap.

    In case your counting, that leaves the team 23 players if you give them four in the starting rotation. I've yet to address the 5th starter's slot, as my choice may not be as sexy as others. I also support a 7-man bullpen, so the last two spots will be going to the fifth starter and the long reliever. Juan Cruz is as solid a choice as any for the fith starter slot, considering he's all but dominated AAA, and could be a valuable trade option when Angel Guzman is ready. But, Cruz is not a reliever, as he's given up a HR every 7 innings in relief roles. So I propose Cruz battles for the fifth starter slot, but not the long relief option.

    In contrast, I would argue Todd Wellemeyer should be the long reliever, but not the starter. I'm convinced Wellemeyer's two pitches are better suited for the bullpen, and low pressure situations would surely help Larry Rothschild work on his control. Wellemeyer has great stuff, as he broke the 10IP scoreless mark to start his career. But, he finished slowly, letting walks and home runs become a problem. With a good Spring Training I would hand him the long relief role, and groom him with mop up situations. But, who does Cruz and Wellemeyer compete with?

    Glendon Rusch. Please, hold your laughter. No, seriously stop, let me explain myself. The Cubs are hoping for a left-hander for the fith spot, as they already are featuring four power right arms. But, spending millions for Rogers, Estes, Hitchcock, or Oliver doesn't make sense. So, why not give Rusch a non-guaranteed, 600k? He was fantastic after the break, going 0-1 with a 3.23ERA. But in that time he only allowed 42H in 39IP, along with 33 strikeouts and nine walks. Rusch did well in the bullpen, finishing with a 2.35ERA in 13 appearances. Three of his last four starts were very good, and he's entering his peak seasons. While it's laughable to pay seven figures for Rusch, why not give him a chance?

    OK, meet my 2003-2004 WTNY Cub-advocated acquisitions...

    Mike Myers- LHP
    Scott Sullivan- RHP
    Jerry Hairston- 2B
    Javy Lopez- C
    John Vander Wal- OF/1B
    Geoff Blum- IF
    Orlando Palmiero- OF
    Glendon Rusch- LHP

    God, are there any Cub fans out there not excited about 2004? If so, consider moving to the South Side.

    Finally, I wanted to finish my post today with a few notes. The White Sox traded Aaron Miles to the Colorado Rockies for Juan Uribe, in a deal I hate for the White Sox. The team will apparently go with Jose Valentin at second base, and keep Uribe in the starting slot. But Aaron Miles won the 2003 IL Rookie of the Year, and has hit at every level. If the Rockies give this kid a chance, he will reward them.

    Also, many Cub fans have pointed our their desire for Kaz Matsui. Aaron Gleeman wrote a column yesterday predicting Matsui's numbers, very similar to the one I wrote November 3. Gleeman's prediction is .275/.325/.445, which is very close to my .295/.325/.445 choice. Anyway, check back for Christian Ruzich this week, and hopefully we'll have some more baseball news to discuss by the end of the week.

    WTNYDecember 02, 2003
    Tying Loose Ends
    By Bryan Smith

    While I've gone to press with a few news items too early recently, much of my reporting was proven true yesterday. Friday, I wrote Luis Castillo would sign with the Marlins, apparently displaying more foresight that I had cared for. While Castillo didn't cross his T's and dot his I's on Friday, ESPN reports a deal has been reached. Florida will pay their Gold Glove second basemen $16M over three years, with a $5.25M option for a fourth season, and a $2M signing bonus. I've often argued for Castillo, citing a five-year streak of solid OBP numbers, along with good speed, and solid defense. Look for Castillo's SB percentage to improve next season, and for the Marlins to ultimately be pleased for locking up their number two hitter.

    In Sunday's column, I reported on a possible deal for Richie Sexson that ESPN radio 1000 here in Chicago was reporting. The trade had the Diamondbacks sending Craig Counsell, Junior Spivey, Lyle Overbay, and Chris Capuano in exchange for Sexson of the Brewers. Doug Melvin denied that rumor, and a subsequent rumor yesterday said the deal was Counsell, Overbay, and Jorge De La Rosa. But yesterday the deal was officially announced, with the Diamondbacks sending over six players. Counsell, Spivey, Overbay, Capuano, De La Rosa, and Chad Moeller are all Brewers, and the Diamondbacks landed Sexson, Shane Nance, and a future minor leaguer. Doug Melvin did very well, possibly landing half of his position players for next season, along with 40% of a rotation. There's a good chance the team will trade Spivey, but that will only yield more quantity for a team in desperate need of it.

    Finally, yesterday I passed on the Peter Gammons report that the Yankees had signed Gary Sheffield for three seasons, and Flash Gordon for two. Parties from the Sheffield camp are denying the signing is finalized, although you won't find many people who think Sheffield won't be in pinstripes next season. The deal may not be announced today, tomorrow, or next week, but Lee Sinins summed it up best by saying, "expect the deal to be announced whenever George Steinbrenner decides it's the right time to do so."

    On a seperate note, the Gordon deal looks to be completed, as Flash passed a physical Monday morning. The terms will in fact be $7.25M over two years, setting the market for set-up men and powerful right-handed relievers. Brian Cashman is also said to be close to landing former Dodger middle reliever Paul Quantill to a two-year, $6M deal, which would end the need for right-handers in the bullpen. Quantrill was a force last season, and the team could really baby Steve Karsay back into his former self this way. Bret Prinz, your chance of pitching in New York has just decreased substantially.

    P.S. Does anyone find it hilarious the Yankees are going to sign Sheffield and Gordon, the two players the Tampa Bay Devil Rays announced they had their eyes on? It's a conspiracy...

    While I'm on the topic of the AL East, a reader pointed out last week that I failed to post AL East OPS reports, which was completely ignorant of me, but I guess you can't accuse me of East Coast bias, huh? So, without further adeiu, here's the OPS reports of all East players, with three years of experience...

    New York Yankees

    Jorge Posada- 838, 838, 923
    Jason Giambi- 1137,1033, 939- Three down
    Alfonso Soriano- 736, 879, 863
    Derek Jeter- 857, 794, 843
    Aaron Boone- 834, 753, 780
    Bernie Williams- 917, 908, 778- Three down

    Boston Red Sox

    Jason Varitek- 860, 724, 863
    Kevin Millar- 931, 875, 820- Three down
    David Ortiz- 799, 839, 961- Three up
    Todd Walker- 814, 784, 761- Three down
    Nomar Garciaparra- 822, 880, 869
    Bill Mueller- 851, 743, 938
    Manny Ramirez- 1014, 1097, 1014
    Johnny Damon- 687, 799, 750
    Trot Nixon- 881, 808, 974

    Toronto Blue Jays

    Carlos Delgado- 948, 955, 1019- Three Up
    Frank Catalanotto- 881, 807, 823

    Baltimore Orioles

    Jerry Hairston Jr.- 649, 705, 725- Three up
    Deivi Cruz- 670, 660, 647- Three down
    Tony Batista- 715, 766, 663
    Jay Gibbons- 781, 793, 786
    Melvin Mora- 691, 742, 921- Three up

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Toby Hall- 768, 669, 675
    Travis Lee- 775, 725, 807
    Marlon Anderson- 758, 695, 704
    Julio Lugo- 698, 710, 743- Three Up
    Aubrey Huff- 660, 884, 922- Three up

    OK, so I've now gone through every division. Here are all the players, grouped by position, to show positive indicators, or improvements in OPS from 2001-2003 (those in italics aren't important because they lack fantasy value):

    Brandon Inge- C- Tigers
    Jeff Kendall- C- Pirates
    Jason LaRue- C- Reds
    Mike Lieberthal- C- Phillies
    Mike Matheny- C- Cardinals
    A.J. Pierzynski- C- Giants

    Carlos Delgado- 1B- Blue Jays
    Eric Karros- 1B- Free Agent
    Derrek Lee- 1B- Cubs
    David Ortiz- 1B- Red Sox

    Luis Castillo- 2B- Marlins
    Jerry Hairston- 2B- Orioles
    Mark Loretta- 2B- Padres

    Rafael Furcal- SS- Braves
    Carlos Guillen- SS- Mariners
    Julio Lugo- SS- Devil Rays
    Edgar Renteria- SS- Cardinals
    Jack Wilson- SS- Pirates

    Mike Lowell- 3B- Marlins
    Melvin Mora- 3B/SS/OF- Orioles
    Joe Randa- 3B- Royals

    Garret Anderson- OF- Angels
    Milton Bradley- OF- Indians
    Jim Edmonds- OF- Cardinals
    Carl Everett- OF- Free Agent
    Vladimir Guerrero- OF- Free Agent
    Aubrey Huff- OF- Devil Rays
    Kenny Lofton- OF- Free Agent
    Corey Patterson- OF- Cubs
    Jay Payton- OF- Rockies/FA
    Matt Stairs- OF- Free Agent
    Brad Wilkerson- OF- Expos

    And now for a list of those players on a decline (those in bold are exempt for certain reasons)...

    Paul Lo Duca- C- Dodgers
    Mike Piazza- C- Mets

    Jeff Bagwell- 1B- Astros
    Rob Fick- 1B- Free Agent
    Jason Giambi- 1B- Yankees
    Fred McGriff- 1B- Free Agent
    Kevin Millar- 1B- Red Sox
    Randall Simon- 1B- Cubs/FA

    Robbie Alomar- 2B- Free Agent
    Desi Relaford- 2B- Royals

    Todd Walker- 2B- Free Agent

    Royce Clayton- SS- Free Agent
    Deivi Cruz- SS- Free Agent

    Alex Rodriguez- SS- Rangers
    Jose Valentin- SS- White Sox

    Bobby Abreu- OF- Phillies
    Lance Berkman- OF- Astros
    Mike Cameron- OF- Free Agent
    Adam Dunn- OF- Reds
    Jermaine Dye- OF- A's

    Steve Finley- OF- Diamondbacks
    Cliff Floyd- OF- Mets
    Shawn Green- OF- Dodgers
    Bobby Higginson- OF- Tigers
    Chipper Jones- OF- Braves
    Terrence Long- OF- Padres
    Sammy Sosa- OF- Cubs
    Ichiro Suzuki- OF- Mariners
    Larry Walker- OF- Rockies
    Bernie Williams- OF- Yankees

    I'm going to refer back to that list often during the offseason, and I will definitely have a copy available during my fantasy draft. It's the little things that win leagues, like realizing that in 2004, Brad Wilkerson is a better draft choice that Bernie Williams.

    Finally, let me also state that Cris Carpenter has signed a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. The base of the contract is only about $500,000, with about 300k in incentives. While choosing the next Esteban Loaiza isn't something to waste a lot of time thinking about, Carpenter's a nice bet. He's always had the pitches, but has also always had a glass arm.

    I'm working on a new blog project on the side right now, and I'm hoping it will debut by the end of this week. Also, the Christian Ruzich organizational meeting should be either Wednesday or Thursday's column. The next five days are very important as baseball, since December 7 is the day teams can offer arbitration to free agents. One important situation to look for is Ivan Rodriguez and the Marlins, who are contractually not allowed to offer Pudge arbitration. Well, keep your eyes and ears open folks...

    WTNYDecember 01, 2003
    New MVP?
    By Bryan Smith

    So while I misreported Luis Castillo signing with the Marlins on Friday, it turns out the ESPN radio report I heard on Sunday was false as well. Instead of Criag Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey and Chris Capuano, ESPN.com writes the trade will not include Spivey and Capuano, but rather Jorge De La Rosa, whom the D-Backs got for Schilling.

    If this is true, I like this deal a lot less for the Brewers. I thought Spivey would be a nice way to keep Rickie Weeks in the minors for the first few months, and then Doug Melvin could deal him at the deadline. And while De La Rosa is easily the better pitching prospect compared to Capuano, I'm not convinced there's that kind of difference. This means Bill Hall will battle Weeks for the second base job in Spring Training, with Hall likely winning the battle for about 45 games.

    Another big signing has caught my interest, and I'd like to begin with a statistical comparison:

    Player A: .330/.419/.604 39HR 132RBI 126R 18SB
    Player B: .298/.396/.600 47HR 118RBI 124R 17SB

    To me, despite the fact that Player B has an edge in home runs, the fact that Player A has advantages in every other category would make me think A is the more valuable player. Funny, because A is Gary Sheffield, and B is the 2003 AL MVP Alex Rodriguez. The New York Yankees will sign Gary Sheffield to a three-year contract between $36-38M this week, according to ESPN and Peter Gammons. The move will give the Yankees yet another bat, and give Mr. Rodriguez some company.

    Here's a look at Sheffield's splits from last season:

    Vs. RH: .327/.418/.585 Vs. LH: .341/.450/.675
    Home: .317/.416/.597 Road: .343/.422/.613
    Pre-ASB: .327/.423/.596 Post-ASB: .333/.413/.615

    Well, those look to be very promising numbers. Sheffield prefers left-handers, although he hits right-handers as well as anyone in the American League. He was better away from Turner Field last season, which is generally referred to as a pitcher's park. Yankee Stadium isn't, and those should improve Sheff's numbers as well. Furthermore, Sheffield's power numbers increased after the break last season, another key indicator. While Steinbrenner may not be finished with his offense, this is currently what the Yankees are sporting:

    C- Jorge Posada- S
    1B- Nick Johnson- LH
    2B- Alfonso Soriano- RH
    SS- Derek Jeter- RH
    3B- Aaron Boone- RH
    LF- Hideki Matsui- LH
    CF- Bernie Williams- S
    RF- Gary Sheffield- RH
    DH- Jason Giambi- LH

    Right-Handers: 4
    Left-handers: 3
    Switch Hitters: 2

    That's great balance, and definitely a World Championship-type lineup. It's very possible the Yankees sign a second basemen, move Soriano to center, Williams to DH, Giambi to first, and trade Johnson in a deal for Javier Vazquez. The team also will bolster their bullpen this week, as Peter Gammons reports the team has agreeed to sign Tom Gordon for two years, and $7M.

    A look at Gordon's numbers (ERA, H/IP, K/BB):

    Gordon: 3.16 57/74 91/31
    vs. RH: .196/.281/.254 vs. LH: .231/.313/.334
    Home: 1.96 24/41.1 50/10 Road: 4.68 33/32.2 41/21
    Pre-ASB: 3.35 39/45.2 60/21 Post-ASB: 2.86 18/28.1 31/10

    Very interesting signing. Gordon is a fantastic reliever, deadly to right-handers, and pitches well against left-handers. He seemed to heavily prefer Comiskey Park last season, although I doubt Yankee Stadium will provide a lot of troubles. He was a better pitched after the break, although Gordon's strikeout numbers were better in the first half. As a set-up man to Rivera, Gordon is best in the business, and he'll take off a lot of pressure Steve Karsay would have shouldered returning from injury. $3.5M is a very good price, and Gordon was obviously the Yankees first choice before LaTroy Hawkins, whose market diminished to the Cubs.

    Finally, here's another interesting statistical comparison, of another player who was recently acquired:

    Player C: .230BAA 1.05WHIP 2.95ERA 10.39 K/9
    Player D: .247BAA 1.07WHIP 3.25ERA 6.90K/9

    C is Schilling, and D is AL Cy Young Roy Halladay. I'm not saying Schilling and Sheffield will take the AL awards by storm next season, just proving the importance of the two moves these rivals have made during the last week. It's a short post today, but if you missed what I wrote on Sunday, check that out. Also, look forward to a Cubs Organization Meeting with Christian Ruzich this week, along with more rumors and analysis. God, I can't Wait 'Til Next Year!

    WTNYNovember 30, 2003
    Stupid and Speculating
    By Bryan Smith

    I feel like an idiot. I write a whole article Friday devoted to the Marlins signings of Castillo and Lowell, which I heard were to be announced that day. Since, neither has been announced, although the Lowell extension looks true. But the Castillo signing his a snag when the Chicago Cubs came into the fight, along with the Mets matching the Marlins 4th year vesting option move. So, the price is being dragged up by the slappin' switch hitter, and will probably settle close to $6M per season. Wow.

    Now I don't want to report something before it happens, again, but there is speculation (ESPN radio 1000 in Chicago) that the Brewers have traded Richie Sexson to the Diamondbacks for Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, and Chris Capuano. Here, to start, are some statistics, along with my comments:

    Sexson: .272/.379/.548
    Vs. RH: .271/.359/.545 Vs. LH: .279/.448/.557
    Home: .257/.364/.521 Road: .287/.393/.574
    Pre-ASB: .263/.376/.513 Post-ASB: .285/.383/.597
    3-YR OPS: .889, .867, .927
    Comments: Richie plays with power, and he has some of the top 5 power in the Majors. He's absolutely huge, although Sexson has made huge strides in defense the last few seasons. He probably will sit around .275 for his average, although he walks about 100 times per season and whiffs equally as much. He improved after the break and played better on the road, which is a good indicator for the D-Backs.

    Spivey: .255/.326/.433
    Vs. RH: .238/.305/.392 Vs. LH: .288/.366/.512
    Home: .294/.347/.525 Road: .205/.301/.317
    Pre-ASB: .255/.323/.441 Post-ASB: .255/.330/.422
    Comments: Spivey's 2002 stats are misleading, as his first half was much different than his second, .966 vs. .763. So, for the last three halves, Spivey has been a .760 player, which is where his value stands. His OBP may rise to .380 at one point, although .430 is about his slugging high. So, the max for Spivey OPS in 2004 is .810, while .740 is about the low.

    Counsell: .234/.328/.304 in 303AB
    Vs. RH: .239/.336/.319 Vs. LH: .219/.301/.274
    Home: .239/.339/.317 Road: .230/.317/.292
    Pre-ASB: .268/.385/.373 Post-ASB: .205/.274/.242
    Comments: I hate to pardon bad play, but much of Counsell's horrible season, including a disastrous second half, can be blamed on injury. He is very eligible for improvement next season, although topping .700 on the OPS chart may be unreasonable. He'll play shortstop for the Brewers, heating the position up for J.J. Hardy, although stealing time away from Bill Hall.

    Overbay in MLB: .276/.365/.402 24XBH in 254AB
    Overbay in AAA: .286/.419/.479 15XBH in 119AB
    Comments: Overbay has been compared to Mark Grace before, as a high average, solid defensive, doubles power first basemen. Asking 20 home runs out of Overbay is unreasonable, although 30 doubles and 15 home runs isn't. He could hit .300 very soon, and has OF in his history. The Brewers are already moving former top prospect Brad Nelson to outfield, in preparation for Prince Fielder's arrival. Expect Overbay to play first until Fielder, and then to either move to the OF or be traded/non-tendered.

    Capuano in MLB: 2-4 4.64 27/33 23/11
    Capuano In AAA: 9-5 3.34 133/142.2 108/43
    Comments: Capuano has little minor league experience, despite the fact he'll turn 25 after the break next season. He's only had 75 minor league starts, and nearly one-third of them came in 2003. He has a good curveball, and a fastball that sits around 90mph. He pitched better than his ERA indicates, and should be in the Milwaukee rotation next season.

    For his slugging first basemen, Doug Melvin has nearly built himself an infield for 2004. CBS Sportsline doesn't have Spivey as arbitration-eligible, so I'm going to assume that is true and say he won't be traded this winter. The team will play Counsell at shortstop, meaning one-time prospect Bill Hall will have to take his .300OBP act elsewhere. Spivey gives the team an excuse to not play Rickie Weeks right away, which actually should help his development. Same holds true for SS prospect J.J. Hardy, who needs some time in AAA.

    I think the team will trade Spivey during next season, about the team Weeks is ready to contribute. The $3.4M Counsell will stick around though, as his value is supposedly better than sabermatricians realize.

    Actually, Melvin could field a lineup that looks like:

    1. Scott Podsednik- CF
    2. Junior Spivey- 2B
    3. Geoff Jenkins- LF
    4. Lyle Overbay- 1B
    5. Wes Helms- 3B
    6. Brady Clark- RF
    7. ???- C
    8. Craig Counsell- SS

    He is in need of a shortstop and possibly a right fielder, although Clark showed flashes of brilliance last season. The team's rotation will have Sheets and Capuano, and probably Matt Kinney, Doug Davis, and Luis Martinez. God, they're bad. As for Arizona, they add a big bat for their lineup, and I imagine Brenly will field this lineup:

    1. Matt Kata- 2B
    2. Alex Cintron- SS
    3. Luis Gonzalez- LF
    4. Richie Sexson- 1B
    5. Shea Hillenbrand- 3B
    6. Steve Finley- CF
    7. Danny Bautista- RF
    8. Moeller/Barajas/Hammock- C

    Not a bad lineup, considering the successes of Kata, Cintron, and Hillenbrand. The rotation is a big question in Arizona, but I think Johnson, Webb, Fossum, De La Rosa, and a combination of Good, Patterson, or Edgar Gonzalez will claim the final slot. The team will realize Fossum is cut out for the bullpen about the same time that Mike Gosling bounces back from a disappointing season in the Pacific Coast League.

    Overall, not a bad trade for both teams, although this is a nice move for the Diamondbacks after dealing away their ace. By taking out Counsell and adding Sexson, the team will pay Richie about $4.85M in 2004, which is quite a bargain. The team also lost $12M with Schilling, putting the team currently on the hook for about $58.4M, when considering the arbitration-eligible players. That gives Garigiola $8-11M to spend, although I don't really see where the work will be done. Maybe the team will move to sign Miguel Batista, which is the smartest option at this point.

    Not bad for a weekend post, huh?

    WTNYNovember 28, 2003
    Turkey or Fish?
    By Bryan Smith

    According to this column in the Florida Sun-Sentinal, the Marlins will announce the re-signings of Luis Castillo and Mike Lowell as early as today. According to Mike Berardino, Castillo will sign a three-year deal woth $15.5M, with a $6M option that could vest by plate appearances. Lowell's extension will be a four-year contract, believed to be in the $36-40M range. For the purposes of this column, I'm going to assume Lowell makes $9.5M in 2004, which would fall right in the middle of that range.

    Before digging deeper into the Marlins, let's look at Lowell and Castillo splits:

    Lowell Overall: .276/.350/.530
    Vs. RH: .271/.346/.484 Vs. LH: .295/.363/.688
    At Home: .282/.365/.509 Road: .271/.336/.550
    Pre-ASB: .275/.351/.586 Post-ASB: .281/.348/.388

    Castillo Overall: .314/.381/.397
    Vs. RH: .312/.377/.357 Vs. LH: .320/.394/.494
    At Home: .326/.398/.406 Road: .303/.365/.388
    Pre-ASB: .311/.375/.407 Post-ASB: .320/.390/.382

    Lowell's second half numbers look very shaky because he was injured, the sole reasoning his power went away completely. His OPS has increased each of the last three seasons, and he is likely to break .900 next season. Castillo has started striking out less, but he needs to improve his baserunning abilities to be top-notch. He fits very well in that second hole, and Fox documented the importance Pierre and Castillo played on the Marlins last season. I believe a large part of these signings were to draw a crowd to Miami, bringing back popular, Latino players to satisfy Miami's largest demographic.

    Berardino also writes the team will non-tender both Juan Encarnacion and Braden Looper, assuming trades can not be worked out beforehand. But by this news going public, Larry Beinfest has lost any potential market he was hoping to harbor with these two. So using the information I presented this week, I can assume the following:

    Signed for 2004: Juan Pierre (2.3), Mike Hampton (10), Mike Lowell (9.5), Luis Castillo (5.5)

    Arbitration-Eligible: Brad Penny (2.5), Mark Redman (3), A.J. Burnett (2.5), Gonzalez (2.7)

    Currently on the hook for: $38M

    Last season's Opening Day payroll was a shade over $50M, and my belief is the team will allow Beinfest to reach $55M in 2004. After assuming $4M is spent on auto-renewals, the team will have $42M spent on next season's team. That would allow Beinfest to spend roughly $13M towards next season's team. Let's look at what kind of team the World Champion's will trot out there:

    1. Pierre- CF
    2. Castillo- 2B
    3. Lowell- 3B
    4. Cabrera- RF
    5. Conine-LF
    6. Choi- 1B
    7. Gonzalez- SS
    8. Castro/?- C

    Ivan Rodriguez is the largest question mark this team has, but that question will be answered in the next ten days. Last season Rodriguez stipulated the team could not offer him arbitration this season, meaning if the team doesn't sign him by December 7th, he will be lost. Pudge was the heart and soul of last year's team, and the most popular Latino player of all. Beinfest and Boras are millions of miles apart, but as I said, all will be known a week from Sunday. Here's a look at the rotation:

    1. Beckett- RH
    2. Pavano- RH
    3. Redman- LH
    4. Willis- LH
    5. Penny- RH

    The team will expect A.J. Burnett back early in the season, although I can't say I expect Pavano, Redman, Penny, and Burnett to all be Marlins next season. One will be either dealt or non-tendered, and that will be seen on December 20. Berardino hints that Mark Redman will be the player to go if Pudge is signed, but if the team is forced to go with Ramon Castro, that rotation above stays.

    Jack McKeon's bullpen has many questions within itself, and those will grow when Looper is non-tendered. The team will probably look for one-time studs like Blaine Neal and Tim Spooneybarger to step up, along with a couple veterans they sign. Berardino says the team is closing in on Chad Fox, and is looking to add another reliever (a former closer of some type) after that. I would advise Mike Williams, who is only one season removed from 40 saves. Armando Almanza and Michael Tejera are two more, and I imagine someone of the Tommy Phelps or Allan Levrault variety.

    Florida is trying desperately to avoid the 1997 sell-out logo, and will spend $15M next season (Castillo and Lowell) to prove it. Lowell will be able to escape his deal if Miami doesn't get a new stadium deal, and Florida is trying to buy their stadium on payroll. I fully expect Beinfest to realize Pudge's importance (along with Pudge seeing he has no market) and the two sides coming together for a deal. When that happens, the NL East is still wide open, although the Phillies are the favorites in 2004.

    2004 favorites (assuming Schilling is in Boston): Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Red Sox, Royals/Twins, A's

    Have a good weekend, check back if something worthy of posting happens. And, make your way over to Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT to see an exclusive interview with injury guru and fellow blogger, Will Carroll.

    WTNYNovember 27, 2003
    Royals and Rumors
    By Bryan Smith

    Happy Thanksgiving, hope everyone has a great day of festivities, and (for once), football. Today's column is filled with rumors and signings, kind of like a Friday column normally would be. But I'll have more substantial material tomorrow, so check back then. First off, let's please the Kansas City fans...

    Allan Baird re-signed a triplet of Royals yesterday, and as usual, I'll throw some splits your way before analyzing...

    Brian Anderson statistics:

    Overall: 14-11 3.78 212/197.2 87/43
    With Royals: 5-1 3.99 50/49.2 15/11
    In Kauffman: 3-1 6.53 36/30.1 11/6
    Before Break: 7-6 4.13 120/104.2 39/21
    After Break: 7-5 3.39 92/93 48/22

    Joe Randa stats:

    Overall: .291/.348/.452
    Vs. RH: .282/.345/.433 Vs. LH: .311/.356/.497
    Home: .286/.357/.478 Away: .295/.341/.432
    Pre-ASB: .248/.304/.414 Post-ASB: .344/.402/.500

    Curt Leskanic splits:

    Overall: 5-0 2.22 38/52.2 50/29
    With Royals: 1.73 16/26 22/11
    Vs. RH: .228/.319/.356 Vs. LH: .176/.307/.247

    Anderson will make $3.25M the next two seasons, Randa will make a hefty $3.75M next year, and Leskanic will earn $1.5M. In total, the Royals spent $8.5M towards their 2004 team, landing them at $31.4M so far, by my calculations. OK, here's what I know about the pitching staff next season:

    1. Brian Anderson
    2. Runelvys Hernandez
    3. Darrell May
    4. Kevin Appier
    5. Gobble vs. Asencio vs. Snyder

    Not bad, and so far the bullpen has Leskanic, Nate Field, Mike MacDougal, Jeremy Affeldt, D.J. Carrasco, and possibly Kris Wilson. I believe Affeldt has huge potential out of the 'pen, able to pitch in any role necessary. He can go long relief, middle relief, close, and come in to get lefties out. Leskanic can get right-handers out, but MacDougal actually showed a huge reverse platoon split. Signing one more right-hander, possibly Al Levine, is a possibility.

    Randa will likely be one of two veterans signed, and I've made it no secret what I believe this team should do. My vote would be to put DeJesus and Guiel on the outfield corners, and sign Javy Lopez with the remaining money. That would give a very good lineup of:

    1. David DeJesus- LF
    2. Joe Randa- 3B
    3. Mike Sweeney- 1B
    4. Carlos Beltran- CF
    5. Javy Lopez- C
    6. Ken Harvey- DH
    7. Angel Berroa- SS
    8. Aaron Guiel- RF
    9. Desi Relaford- 2B

    That's a very good lineup, with even more potential. If Randa hits like he did in the second half, and Lopez was to continue his tear, they would have one of the more formidable offenses in baseball. DeJesus would switch with Guiel if he struggled, and Ken Harvey and Angel Berroa are likely to further improve next season. It's looking good in Kansas City, especially when considering the hits Minnesota and Chicago have taken thus far.

    And after that rant, I'd like to briefly mention that Mark Kotsay is officially an A, while Sandy Alomar Jr. re-signed with the Chicago White Sox. I already wrote about Kotsay, and the 150AB that Alomar will steal from Miguel Olivo isn't substantial enough for me to spend time writing about. So, onto the rumors:

    - Kaz Matsui has announced he is more than willing to change positions, which will officially count the Yankees in for negotiations. The Yankees are hoping to bring Matsui in to play second, and move Soriano to center. Bernie Williams would shift to DH, and Nick Johnson would then be featured in a deal for Javier Vazquez.

    But, I must say I don't believe Matsui is as open as he is saying, I mean, he was voted best Japanese shortstop of all-time last season. He is fantastic on defense, and is probably using the Yankees to drive his price up. Ultimately, the Dodgers or Mariners will sign him, with emphasis on the latter. That leaves the Yankees with one other second base option...

    - Luis Castillo is sitting in a very comfortable position, in the driver's seat with two very nice offers on the table. And yes, more are to come. Castillo was first offered a three year, $15.5M extension by the Marlins, to which he gave the response, "Let's wait and see." The Mets, according to the New York Post, countered with an offer in the $14M range over three seasons, apparently asking Castillo to ditch Miami to play in New York (for less money).

    But, if Matsui turns the Yankees down, they're likely to go after Castillo, and the Red Sox and Cubs are supposedly interested as well. If Castillo plays his cards right, we could be talking $7M per for a sound defensive, light hitting second basemen. Let me just say I hardly advocate the signing of Castillo for the Cubs, as other options (Aurilia, Grudzi, Durham, Walker) would be more fiscally/statistically sound for this team.

    - The Cubs are said to be one of the teams interested in Keith Foulke, the 'mystery' team of the bidding process. Foulke has received a four-year offer from the Red Sox, but will wait to hear offers from Oakland, New York, and Chicago. Keith isn't said to be interested in the Mets, as he wants to be pitching for a contender. Who knows how far the Cubs will go, as they are interested in three other pitchers as closers. Who?

    - Tom Gordon, Rod Beck, and Ugueth Urbina are all expected to hear offers from the Cubs, all to take over Joe Borowski's job as closer. Borowski would then move to middle relief, where I believe he is much better suited. Gordon is drawing a ton of interest from the Devil Rays, Urbina will probably end up with the Mets, and Rod Beck remains a wild card. If the Cubs miss out on Foulke and Gordon, expect them to jump all over Beck. If the A's miss out on Foulke, I expect them to be interested in Rod. Funny, I haven't heard LaTroy Hawkins' name in weeks.

    - No real news on Curt Schilling, as Epstein and Lucchino appear to be trying to keep the deal hush-hush. If Schilling doesn't get a three-year offer from Boston, he will spurn them and stay in Arizona. If he does, Boston will have an amazing rotation, and Richie Sexson will be a Diamondback next week...

    That's all for today, I just can't stomach to write more. OK, I can't write puns. Dammit, see ya tomorrow.

    WTNYNovember 26, 2003
    Lee, Lee, and some salaries
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, Aaron Gleeman introduced a new stat of his, entitled "Gleeman Production Average," which is a more advanced statistic than OPS. He is trying to weigh on-base percentage and slugging percentage equally, basically by multiplying OBP by 1.8. He then divides by four, and you have a number synonomous to batting average. It's a good attempt, but if he calls it GPA, then multiplying his final number by 10 would give you a school-like GPA. Barry Bonds would have a 4.25, which makes a lot more sense. That came from a thread on Baseball Primer, during which I spent half my afternoon talking on. Between Gleeman, Patel, and Pinto's statistics, it's definitely a sabermatrician winter.

    Then, news broke about my Cubbies. Derrek Lee for Hee Seop and an unimportant minor league (to be named later). I argued for this trade on both Primer and the Cub Reporter. Primer was a very negative source for the trade, and the Cub Reporter was filled with optimism. I'll make my argument a little later in this column, but basically, it's very stupid and close-minded for any REAL Cub fan to diss Jim Hendry. Read on if you want stuff on that.

    But today I'm going back to salaries briefly, in which I've spent each of the last two days talking about. I gave rough estimates of where teams currently stood at, and how much money that would leave them on the free agent market. Numbers ranged from $4M to over $30M, obviously depending on the team and market. I wanted to establish what type of market there would be, and how much money would be sitting around for free agents.

    So, I've added all the totals of how much teams will spend this offseason, for both the National League and the American League...

    National League- $218M ($13.625M per team)
    American League- $173M ($12.357M per team)

    Major League Baseball- $391M ($13.033M per team)

    The National League is slightly more this offseason, which is mainly helped by me adding the Curt Schilling trade int my accounts. I then used the Transaction Guy's free agents listing to discover there are currently 204 Major League free agents whom have filed for free agency and intend to sign. I say that because Roger Clemens, Albert Belle, and Dean Palmer are all likely finished. So, a little more calculating:

    $391M/204FA= $1.917M per FA

    So, by my calculations, the average contract signed this offseason will be just under $2M, although I must admit I don't know where this ranks in recent years. I'll try to figure out where that relates to past seasons, but I'm guessing it isn't as low as last season, but still below the Golden years (the Rodriguez, Ramirez, Hampton contract offseason).

    This season's top 6 free agents, ranked by ESPN, read as follows:

    1. Vladimir Guerrero- RF
    2. Bartolo Colon- SP
    3. Miguel Tejada- SS
    4. Gary Sheffield- RF
    5. Pudge Rodriguez- C
    6. Kevin Millwood- SP

    These are the only six free agents that I estimate will earn $8M or more per year in contract, as they find themselves in the upmost echelon. I then went on to predict their contracts:

    1. Guerrero- $14M per year
    2. Colon- $12M per year
    3. Tejada- $10M per year
    4. Sheffield- $12M per year
    5. Rodriguez- $8M per year
    6. Millwood- $8M per year

    Total- $64M

    So, by my unprecise calculations, I guess the top six free agents will earn a combined $64M next season, or making up 16.37% of the money that will be spent on free agents. So, I re-run the calculations...

    Money available: 391-64= $327M
    Players available: 204-6= 198FA

    Money per player: 327/198= $1.65M

    So, after the upmost echelon, the average free agent will make $1.65M in the 2003-2004 offseason. Why is this interesting? You tell me. It will make a lot more sense when I compare this to past years, but this is a very introductory article. I'm trying to add stats to this site folks, bear with me for awhile.

    OK, that's not exactly my niche, so I'm going to move to analyzing trades, my specialty...

    Yesterday, the Cub's got Derrek Lee from the Marlins for 1B Hee Seop Choi and a future minor leaguer. To start my argument, let me re-emphasize the history of the Cubs. The last time Chicago was in the World Series was 1945, a.k.a the end of World War II. The last time the Cubs won the World Series was nearly a decade before World War I broke out. That is the longest drought in professional sports. We suffer, and we are mocked. Cubs fans would do anything to win a World Series, which was the gist behind some bad Old Style commercials in the Chicago area (I won't get into that).

    So, let me go onto say that 2004 is the most important year for the Cubs since the late-60s. Haha, you're probably laughing right? I mean, us Cub fans say that every year. But I'm completely serious, for a number of reasons:

    - This is the last contract year for Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Derrek Lee, Moises Alou
    - Sammy Sosa is starting a long decline
    - Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano are reaching their peaks eerily early

    So, I conclude that 2004, the first year I can remember that the Cubs could be the NL favorites, is very important. It's all about 2004. Our great farm system, good crop of young players doesn't matter, the focus is on next season. My belief is that any move to improve next year's team is a good one, which definitely (to me) meant trading Juan Cruz and Hee Seop Choi.

    OK, I'll throw some stats out there:

    Lee Overall: .271/.379/.508
    Vs. LH: .333/.462/.600 Vs. RH: .256/.358/.486
    Home: .242/.371/.419 Away: .297/.388/.591
    Pre-ASB: .263/.372/.491 Post-ASB: .284/.393/.537
    Lee 2001 OPS: .820
    Lee 2002 OPS: .872
    Lee 2003 OPS: .887
    And Choi:

    Choi Overall: .218/.350/.421
    Vs. LH: 1H in 17AB Vs. RH: .232/.349/.449
    Home: .211/.372/.413 Away: .226/.321/.430
    Pre-ASB: .239/.379/.465 Post-ASB: 6H in 43AB

    Derrek Lee has amazingly positive indicators, because he hit much better on the road, after the break, and has improved each of the last three seasons. He mashes left-handers, but will contribute against right-handers very well. The Cubs will keep a left-handed 1B bat (Simon or Snow) on the bench to make the occasional start, but it won't be a straight platoon. Also, Lee won a Gold Glove in 2003, and has stolen at least 19 bases each of the last two seasons. Not only is he better (currently) offensively than Choi, but he also adds defense and speed.

    Choi has as much potential, as any hitter under 25 right now, but that isn't important to Cub fans, as I explained earlier. While his OPS (and GPA) might be favorable because of a lot of walks, he doesn't make contact enough to be a factor in the Major Leagues right now. Scouts say he has a gaping hole on the inside half of the plate, and while I think he'll overcome that problem, it might take a little while. Chicago doesn't have time to waste developing players, Corey Patterson took long enough.

    The only valid argument for naysayers is money. I will argue that the difference between Choi and Lee contracts aren't important, I mean I documented yesterday the Cubs had the money to make a big deal like this. But the argument is the Cubs should be worrying about different positions first. Should Miguel Tejada have been higher on the want list because Alex Gonzalez sucks? Maybe. But right now, the Cubs 3-5 (Sosa, Lee, Ramirez) is very good, and Gonzalez adds Gold Glove defense. They still have the money to address 2B, the fifth spot, and the bullpen, so I guess I can invalidate (is that a word?) that argument as well.

    I loved the Lee-Choi trade, and I will definitely track their progress in 2004. My guess? How about a .120 difference in OPS, in favor of Mr. Lee. And whomever first pointed out that Derrek Lee's father was the one that signed Choi should be sainted, as that is the coolest fact I read all of yesterday. I'm going to have to refer to Tupac to conclude my article, as a quote from "Keep Ya Head Up" perfectly defines the Cubs philosophy for 2003-2004: "if you fall, stand tall and come back for more." See ya tomorrow...

    WTNYNovember 25, 2003
    Looking Into Salaries and Schilling
    By Bryan Smith

    Even though the Curt Schilling trade is big news, that analysis is at the bottom of my post today, as I first wrote about the contracts and payrolls of all NL teams. To put it all in perspective, a day after I predicted Jon Garland's arbitration/renewal contract would be $2M, he signed for $2.3. I'm a little low on arbitration numbers, so I tried to work on that for today. Any feedback please e-mail me, those are always greatly appreciated.

    And on to the NL teams, once again thanks to Christian Ruzich for arbitration help and Avkash Patel for this story idea.

    Arizona Diamondbacks
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 75.9M

    Signed for 2004: Elmer Dessens (4), Randy Johnson (16), Matt Mantei (7), Curt Schilling (12), Craig Counsell (3.15), Steve Finley (6.75), Luis Gonzalez (8.5), Danny Bautista (4)

    Arbitration Eligible: Rob Barajas (1), Shea Hillenbrand (3)

    On the hook for: $65.4M currently

    That "on the hook" number may be the most inaccurate of all the teams, as Johnson and Schilling have lots of deferred payments. If Schilling moves and Sexson comes, the number will decrease to $61.4M. The team is looking to drop payroll into the $70M range, so that leaves Garagiola $5M if he keeps Schilling, or $9M if he goes with Sexson. That money will go to RF and a starter to replace Mr. Schilling.

    Atlanta Braves
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $99.2M

    Signed for 2004: Paul Byrd (7), Mike Hampton (2), John Smoltz (11), Russ Ortiz (5.7), Andruw Jones (12), Chipper Jones (14), Ray King (1)

    Arbitration Eligible: Mark DeRosa (1), Rafael Furcal (5), Jason Marquis (750k), Jaret Wright (750k)

    On the hook for: $60.2M currently

    AOL/Time Warner is looking to drop into the $90M range, so Scheurholtz has to decrease costs about $10M next year. Even if that's so, it gives him roughly $25M to work with. He can then put up the best offer for Sheffield, and even make a run at Millwood. If that's so, he better be committed to staring Estrada, LaRoche, and DeRosa. I didn't include Gary Mathews Jr., whom was claimed yesterday. He'll add about 800k to that pot.

    Chicago Cubs
    Opening Day Payroll: $86.25M

    Signed for 2004: Matt Clement (6), Mark Prior (1.6), Mike Remlinger (3.55), Damian Miller (3), Alex Gonzalez (4.5), Aramis Ramirez (6), Moises Alou (9.5), Sammy Sosa (16)

    Arbitration Eligible: Joe Borowski (3), Kyle Farnsworth (1.5), Ramon Martinez (1.5), Kerry Wood (8)

    On the hook for: $64.15M currently

    Jim Hendry has money to spend, as the Tribune Company will probably touch $90M if needed. The team is looking to add a left-handed fifth starter, second basemen, possibly a catcher, and some right-handed relief. With that kind of money they can buy the best of everything they need. I've always endorsed a Miguel Tejada signing (then eat Alex Gonzalez's contract), although there are more popular rumors (Hitchcock, Hawkins, Walker). BTW, this leaves out Paul Bako and Randall Simon, whom I see as non-tender candidates.

    Cincy Reds
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $58.4M

    Signed for 2004: Danny Graves (6), Jimmy Haynes (2.5), Sean Casey (6.8), Barry Larkin (700k), Ken Griffey (12.5)

    Arbitration Eligible: Russ Branyan (750k), D'Angelo Jimenez (1), Jason LaRue (2), John Reidling (750k), Chris Reitsma (1)

    On the hook for: $34.5 currently

    The 58.4 mentioned as payroll is deceiving, as trades decimated that number by almost $15M. Carl Lindner is looking for a payroll around $40M, which will be a problem for the new GM, Mr. O'Brien. The team already has a lineup, but they desperately need pitching in all areas. Can he do that with $3-7M, no. Fans have to come to the stadium, and owners have to pony up the dough, it should go hand in hand.

    Colorado Rockies
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- $59.7M

    Signed for 2004: Hampton (1.9), Denny Neagle (9), Charles Johnson (9), Todd Helton (11.6), Preston Wilson (9), Larry Walker (12.5), Mark Belhorn (490k)

    Arbitration Eligible: Shawn Chacon (2), Scott Elarton (.5), Justin Speier (1)

    On the hook for: $56.39M currently

    Dan O'Dowd is in trouble. With his current payroll almost matching last season's Opening Day, I assumed Jay Payton to be a non-tender victim in mid-December. He will probably need to dump another player, with Todd Helton being the only name I've heard. But man, that's one Hell of a contract. I think ownership may have to raise payroll by about $5M in 2004, because after next season, O'Dowd loses the contracts of Neagle, Johnson, Wilson, and Walker, which will total almost $37M in spending money. Much of their prospects will be ready then, and in 2006, a new era begins.

    Florida Marlins
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 52.5M

    Signed for 2004: Juan Pierre (2.3), Mike Hampton (10)

    Arbitration Eligible: Juan Encarnacion (4), Derrek Lee (6), Mike Lowell (6), Brad Penny (2.5), Mike Redman (2.5), A.J. Burnett (2.5), Braden Looper (2)

    On the hook for: $37.8M currently

    Much of the Marlins team is arbitration-eligible or auto-renewable, so don't be shocked by the signed for 2004 status. The team likely will be able to raise payroll to about $55M in 2004, so Beinfest has about $17-20M to spend on the current market. He wants to sign Castillo, lock up Lowell, and get Rodriguez to stay. To do that and build the rest of a team, he probably will have to get rid of Derrek Lee, who may be an Oriole as I type this. There is also talk of either Penny, Redman, or Burnett getting non-tendered, although I don't see why that's necessary.

    Houston Astros
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $66.8M

    Signed for 2004: Brad Ausmus (2), Jose Vizcaino (1.2), Dan Miceli (600k), Jeff Bagwell (13), Jeff Kent (8.5), Craig Biggio (3), Lance Berkman (6.5), Richard Hidalgo (12)

    Arbitration Eligible: Geoff Blum (1.5), Octavio Dotel (2.5), Wade Miller (2)

    On the hook for: $52.8M currently

    Drayton McLane constantly bitches about losing money, so the payroll next season will hover around $65M once again. The team has already sunk about $4M into Ausmus, Vizcaino, and Miceli, so if that's indicative on the rest of the offseason, Hunsicker should get fired. The team should non-tender Geoff Blum (they won't) and give Morgan Ensberg an everyday job. Signing Andy Pettite might work, but that would be one of their last moves. And no, there isn't one team who will take Richard Hidalgo at $12M.

    Los Angeles Dodgers
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $115.76M

    Signed for 2004: Kevin Brown (15), Darren Dreifort (11), Kaz Ishii (2.6), Tom Martin (1.65), Paul Shuey (3.8), Hideo Nomo (8), Todd Hundley (6.5), Paul Lo Duca (3.9), Shawn Green (16)

    Arbitration Eligible: Adrian Beltre (4), Eric Gagne (6.8), Guillermo Mota (1), Odalis Perez (4), Dave Roberts (750k), Alex Cora (1), Jolbert Cabrera (1)

    On the hook for: $87M currently

    If the team keeps all these players, Dan Evans will have about $25M to improve this team. That entails getting a first basemen, second basemen, left fielder, and more if possible to create a better lineup. Todd Hundley's contract might be the biggest joke in the Majors, right up there with Mo Vaughn. By signing all second-tier players, the Dodgers could still be a contender for 2004.

    Milwaukee Brewers
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $27.9M

    Signed for 2004: Richie Sexson (8), Geoff Jenkins (8.25)

    Arbitration Eligible: Wes Helms (1), Dan Kolb (750k), Ben Sheets (2.25), Luis Vizcaino (750k)

    On the hook for: $21M currently

    The team hopes to drop payroll to $20M this season, but their current payroll already sits above that number. But if Richie Sexson gets moved as rumored, the team will be around $13M. Doug Melvin is trying to build with minor league free agents, and have landed some good ones, like Brian Bowles, Travis Phelps, and Trent Durrington. But if Sexson gets dealt he'll have about $5M to spend, and God knows they'll need it.

    Montreal Expos
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $45.8M

    Signed for 2004: Livan Hernandez (6), Jose Vidro (7)

    Arbitration Eligible: Tony Armas (2.5), Rocky Biddle (1), Orlando Cabrera (4), El Duque (3), Tomo Ohka (1.5), Scott Stewart (1), Javier Vazquez (8)

    On the hook for: $34M currently

    The Expos need a lot of help, and I don't know where they are going to get it. MLB will go up to $40M for the payroll next season, and that is it. That means the team should non-tender Orlando Hernandez, and think hard about trading Vazquez to the Yankees for Nick Johnson and Dioner Navarro. But, I wouldn't trade Vidro or Cabrera, and I'm all over the band wagon for Brad Wilkerson in 2004.

    New York Mets
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $86.3M

    Signed for 2004: Mo Vaughn (6), Tom Glavine (10.5), Al Leiter (8), Mike Stanton (3), Steve Trachsel (5), Dave Weathers (3.6), Mike Piazza (15), Cliff Floyd (6.5), Roger Cedeno (5)

    Arbitration Eligible: Joe McEwing (750k), Timo Perez (1), Scott Strickland (1), Vance Wilson (750k)

    On the hook for: $66.1M currently

    That figure is assuming Mo Vaughn's threat to play next season is false, and the Mets get to collect on $11M in insurance. If Vaughn tries to play, that number goes up to $77M, and Jim Duquette doesn't have breathing room. As is, Duquette has $20-25M to spend, on a 2B, CF, RF, and a closer. Luis Castillo, Mike Cameron, Jose Guillen, and Keith Foulke are at the top of their wish list. Can that be achieved with $20M? Probably not. Hopefully it's not Fernando Vina, Kenny Lofton, Raul Mondesi, and Jose Mesa though. But hey, it's the Mets.

    Philadelphia Phillies
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 70.5M

    Signed for 2004: Billy Wagner (8), Rheal Cormier (3), Randy Wolf (4.25), Mike Lieberthal (7.5), David Bell (4.2), Jim Thome (10.5), Pat Burrell (4)

    Arbitration Eligible: Vicente Padilla (2.5), Placido Polanco (3), Jimmy Rollins (2.5), Amaury Telemaco (750k), Valerio De Los Santos (750k)

    On the hook for: $51M currently

    Ed Wade is moving into a new stadium next season, so the team should have a payroll nearing $75M. If the Schilling trade goes down, the team won't take long to re-sign Kevin Millwood or to land Bartolo Colon, acquring their main offensive need. The team's offense is set in stone, and an ace will put a rotation in place. After that, Wade will add to a bullpen that currently features Wagner and Cormier. The Phillies are going to be very tough next season, very tough.

    Pittsburgh Pirates
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $42.1M

    Signed for 2004: Kris Benson (6.1), Brian Boehringer (2), Jason Kendall (8)

    Arbitration Eligible: Joe Beimel (750k), Mike Lincoln (750k), Brian Meadows (750k), Abraham Nunez (750k), Saloman Torres (1), Kip Wells (2.9), Craig Wilson (1), Jack Wilson (1)

    On the hook for: $25M currently

    This is another team bitching about payroll, so it will be slashed to $35-40M for next season. The infield could include Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Bobby Hill, and Jack Wilson, with an outfield of Jason Bay, Tony Alvarez, and J.J. Davis. That would be the ultracheap version, although Joe Randa is one target the team has. The team doesn't have a lot of needs, and don't be too suprised if they fall to a payroll betwen $30-35M. That sucks for PNC Park, as the nicest stadium in MLB deserves better baseball.

    San Diego Padres
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $44.5M

    Signed for 2004: Ryan Klesko (6.5), Mark Loretta (1.25), Phil Nevin (8.5), Brian Giles (9), Trevor Hoffman (2.5), Brian Lawrence (800k), Kevin Jarvis (4.25), Jay Witasick (1.75), Ramon Hernandez (2.375), Terrence Long (3.9), Akinori Otsuka negotiation rights (300k)

    Arbitration Eligible: Adam Eaton (1), Mike Mathews (500k)

    On the hook for: $42.625 currently

    This is before the team actually signs Otsuka, which will take the current payroll to about $44M. This is a very complete team, but they should fight hard to get David Wells. I mean, they won't even give him a guaranteed contract? C'mon, it's not like Chuck Finley is any better. But, I really like this team, and with the D-Backs recent demotion, this will be a battle with San Fran, LA, and the Pads. Right now, the Pads are in front.

    San Francisco Giants
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $89.05M

    Signed for 2004: Jason Christensen (2.3), Robb Nen (9), Felix Rodriguez (5), Kirk Rueter (5), Jason Schmidt (8.5), Edgardo Alfonzo (8.5), Ray Durham (6), Neifi Perez (2.75), Barry Bonds (16), Marquis Grissom (2)

    Arbitration Eligible: Jim Brower (1), Scott Eyre (750k), Pedro Feliz (1), Matt Herges (1), A.J. Pierzynski (2.2)

    On the hook for: $68M currently

    This team's payroll will be $75M next season, which doesn't give Brian Sabean a whole lot of breathing room. A bullpen can already be conceived by this, and the team is one starter away from a rotation. Pierzynski helped shore up the offensive situation, but 1B, SS, and RF are all still empty. That's a lot with only $7M to spend.

    St. Louis Cardinals
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $84.1M

    Signed for 2004: Jason Isringhausen (6.75), Matt Morris (12.5), Woody Williams (8), Mike Matheny (2.75), Edgar Renteria (5), Scott Rolen (11.25), Jim Edmonds (9), Eli Marrero (2.25), So Taguchi (1)

    Arbitration Eligible: J.D. Drew (4), Albert Pujols (8), Kerry Robinson (750k)

    On the hook for: 71.25M currently

    The team's payroll will be about $85M again next season, which gives Jocketty about $12M to build a pitching staff. I've already wrote moving Pujols to first is a bad idea, as John Gall can take that spot for about $300,000. With his $12M, Jocketty needs a good set-up man, a LOOGY, one #3 starter, and a #5. It won't exactly be easy, but this team doesn't need to be wheelin' and dealin' to keep up with the Cubs.

    First, before I go into too much analyzation, let's look at some numbers and splits for Curt Schilling in 2003:

    Schilling- 8-9 2.95 144/168 194/32
    Schilling at home- 1-6 3.69 78/85.1 96/18
    Schilling on road- 7-3 2.18 66/82.2 98/14
    Before Break- 4-4 3.27 59/77 87/19
    After Break- 4-5 2.67 85/91 107/13

    And onto the numbers of those acquired by the Diamonbacks (Brandon Lyon, Casey Fossum, Jorge De La Rosa, and Michael Goss):

    Lyon- 73/59 50/19
    RH: .276/.309/.378 LH: .317/.381/.550
    Home- 36/27.1 27/5 Away: 37/31.2 23/14

    Fossum in MLB: 6-5 5.47 82/79 63/34
    Fossum in AAA: 1-0 3.46 11/13 14/5
    Fossum in AA: 0-1 6.75 5/4 7/3

    De La Rosa (AA): 6-3 2.80 87/99.2 120/36
    Goss (A-): .245/.327/.295 29SB

    Here are some scouting reports I've fished up, one from John Sickels on De La Rosa, and some quotes from old Baseball America's about Casey Fossum...

    John Sickels of ESPN on De La Rosa: He has a fastball clocked as high as 94 mph. His slider is very good, and he improved his ability to change speeds this year. His biggest problem right now is still command, as his mechanics can be inconsistent, which hinders his ability to throw strikes where he wants them.

    Baseball America in 2000 (Fossum #10 BoSox prospect): "Fossum is about as polished as a pitcher coming into professional baseball can be...If you don't like Fossum, you see him as a situational lefty with a low ceiling. If you do, you see him as an effective No. 4 or 5 starter who will move fast to the big leagues."
    BA in 2001 (Fossum #5 prospect): "Fossum reminds scouts of Jimmy Key...He has very good command, lots of confidence and a sound delivery...At worst, he'll make a good situational reliever."
    BA in 2002 (Fossum #5 prospect): "Fossum's 73-79 mph curveball is the top breaking pitch in the system; lefthanders can't touch it...He's not durable, as he tires quickly...he has just one plus pitch."

    What's funny with Fossum is that at the beginning, BA praised a low-90s fastball and hard slider, but in 2002 wrote his slow curve was his only real pitch. I saw him in Spring Training before 2002 throwing harder, but his hard slider isn't what it used to be. He attacks hitters well, but his stamina is a major problem. A swingman is really the best you will see from him at this point, sad considering his early hype.

    Schilling would be an amazing acquisition for Theo Epstein, and immedietly place him in the upper echelon of GMs. Schilling apparently wants a contract extension, and if Epstein satisfies that need, he is offically waiving Pedro good-bye after next season. Also, this move will put the team too far into the red, so Theo will have to non-tender or trade Byung-Hyun, and make Arroyo the 5th starter. And, I don't think the team can sign Keith Foulke, they'll have to accept Williamson in the closer role.

    Curt pitched much better on the road last season, although Fenway Park is very small. His ERA will still be under 3, and the Red Sox rotation, and lineup, will be better than their arch rivals. Lyon won't be missed, as Theo was trying to get rid of him since the All-Star Break, and Fossum never had a spot on this team. De La Rosa is the big loss, and Goss is much more of a Duquette acquisition than an Epstein choice.

    I don't like the loot for the D-Backs, but I'll have to wait to see what they give up for Richie Sexson before I judge too thoroughly. I imagine the sum would be Junior Spivey, Casey Fossum, and De La Rosa, although that's purely my opinion. I think the D-Backs are keeping Lyon, although he's not the best pitcher in the world.

    There is no question the Red Sox won out on this trade, and there is no way Joe Garigiola got fair market value for Curt. But just like the Kotsay deal, this one isn't over until it's over.

    See ya tomorrow...

    WTNYNovember 24, 2003
    Looking Into Salaries (Part One)
    By Bryan Smith

    First of all, if you didn't check my weekend post, do so now. It has analysis on the Tino trade, Escobar and Appier signings, and as many rumors as I could think of.

    This week will largely be devoted to suggestions my readers made, and next week I'll get into Organizational Meetings again. Today, by request of Avkash Patel of the Raindrops, I'm writing about future salaries. Part One will be looking into 2004 salaries of AL teams, Part Two will be for NL teams, and three will be seeing who is on the hook for how much after next season. The Yankees are a prime example, as they look to be $70M in the hole as early as 2005. Ouch.

    OK, here we go (for this article I got lots of help from ESPN, this player salaries site, and the Transaction Guy)...

    Anaheim Angels
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 68.325M

    Being Payed in 2004: Kevin Appier (12), Ramon Ortiz (2.42), Aaron Sele (8.5), Troy Percival (7.5), Kelvim Escobar (6.25), Ben Molina (1.9), Troy Glaus (9), Garret Anderson (5), Darin Erstad (7.5), Tim Salmon (9.5)

    Arbitration Eligible and Projected Salaries- Jarrod Washburn (5), Ben Weber (1.5), David Eckstein (2)

    On the hook for: 78.07 currently

    The Appier contract sucks, as the Angels have to pay him over ten million to pitch for Kansas City. The team has said they will raise payroll to 85-90 million next year, giving Stonemann about 7 million to work with. Remember this doesn't include any auto-renewals, which will drive payroll about about 2-3M. With these signed players, the team only lacks a 1B, SS, DH, and a little in the bullpen.

    Baltimore Orioles
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 67.5M

    Signed in 2004: Omar Daal (4.5), Buddy Groom (3), Marty Cordova (3.5), David Segui (7)

    Arbitration Eligible: Jay Gibbons (3), Jerry Hairston (2), Jason Johnson (5), Luis Matos (1.5), Mora (3), Brian Roberts (1), B.J. Ryan (750k), Willis Roberts (750k)

    On the hook for: 35M currently

    Although DavidSegui and Omar Daal will take up 11.5M to suck next season, the team will have about $30M to spend. I have assumed that Damian Moss will be non-tendered, which is a pretty safe assumption. With this taken into consideration, the team needs a C, 1B, 3B, RF, 2-3 starters, 2 MR. A lot.

    Boston Red Sox
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $100.1M

    Signed for 2004: Alan Embree (2.75), Derek Lowe (5), Pedro Martinez (17.5), Ramiro Mendoca (3.6), Mike Timlin (2.5), Tim Wakefield (4.35), Jason Varitek (6.7), Nomar Garciaparra (11.5), Kevin Millar (2.7), Bill Mueller (2.1), Johnny Damon (8), Manny Ramirez (20.5)

    Arbitration Eligible: Byung-Hyun Kim (4), Doug Mirabelli (900k), Trot Nixon (5), David Ortiz (3), Scott Sauerbeck (1.6), Scott Williamson (2.5)

    On the hook for: $104.2M currently

    Uh-oh, Epstein is in trouble. With the current players on the roster, he is already over last season's Opening Day Payroll, and I'm assuming Jeremy Giambi and Damian Jackson get non-tendered. The team will go up to $110M next season, giving Theo next-to-nothing to spend. This signed team lacks a second basemen, no starters if Arroyo or Fossum gets a spot, and about 2-3MR.

    Chicago White Sox
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: $69M

    Signed for 2004: Billy Koch (6.375), Esteban Loaiza (3.5), Paul Konerko (8), Jose Valentin (5), Frank Thomas (6), Magglio Ordonez (14)

    Arbitration Eligible- Mark Buehrle (3.5), Brian Daubach (1), Jon Garland (2), Carlos Lee (5), Scott Schoenweis (1.5), Kelly Wunsch (1)

    On the hook for: 56.875 currently

    Ken Williams has about 10 million to spend this offseason, although he's trying to trade either Konerko, Lee, or Ordonez for more breathing room. This team would lack just a 2B, SP, CF, and set-up. Peter Gammons reports they are once again on the trail for Bartolo Colon, but then Carlos Lee and another player would have to get dealt. Is Colon that good? No. Sign Alomar, Ponson, and then worry about the rest after the non-tenders.

    Cleveland Indians
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 47.6M

    Signed for 2004: Milton Bradley (1.43), CC Sabathia (2.45), Mark Wohlers (1), Bob Wickman (5.3), Ricky Gutierrez (3.82), Omar Vizquel (7.5), Matt Lawton (6.75)

    Arbitration Eligible: John McDonald (750k), David Riske (1.5), Jake Westbrook (1)

    On the hook for: 31.5M currently

    The team is likely slashing payroll again next year, giving Mark Shapiro about 40M to work with. The offense can pretty much be constructed as is, although Shapiro is said to want a 2B. I didn't touch the Danys Baez situation here, and he could pose even more problems. The team will need a 2B, SP, and MR with about $7M.

    Detroit Tigers
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 46.5M

    Signed for 2004: Matt Anderson (4.3), Danny Patterson (2.8), Bobby Higginson (8.85), Dmitri Young (7.125), Damion Easley (6.65), Eric Munson (?2?)

    On the hook for: 31M

    And this is about all Dambrowski has to work with, maybe about 4M on the free agent market. And he wants Miguel Tejada? Ha, possibly the funniest rumor in years. The team will need to build around auto-renewals, and likely non-tender Warren Morris is the only Tiger up for arbitration. It will be a slow few years in Detroit.

    Kansas City Royals
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 43M

    Signed for 2004: Kevin Appier (300k), Mike Sweeney (11)

    Arbitration Eligible: Carlos Beltran (9), Darrell May (1), Kris Wilson (750k)

    On the hook for: 22.9M

    OK, so the Royals can easily keep Beltran and Sweeney, giving Baird about 10-12 million to patch the other holes. He is said to want a corner outfielder, although I would go with Guiel and DeJesus. Going after a C (Lopez?) would be a nice move, and the team needs another veteran starter and lots of relief help. This is a good team to do a column on, I'll do so soon.

    Minnesota Twins
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 67.7M

    Signed for 2004: Joe Mays (5.75), Eric Milton (9), Brad Radke (10), Christian Guzman (2.25), Corey Koskie (4.5), Jacque Jones (4.35), Torii Hunter (8)

    Arbitration Eligible: Doug Mientkiewicz (3), Luis Rivas (1.5), JC Romero (1.5), Johan Santana (3)

    On the hook for: 52.85M

    This team may non-tender Luis Rivas and trade Mientkiewicz or Eric Milton. They are looking to re-sign both Shannon Stewart and Eddie Guardado, although I would just choose Stewart. I'll write more when I do their organizational meeting, but I have big plans for the Twinsies. But let me say, Terry Ryan has about 13M to spend on an open market.

    New York Yankees
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 156.1M

    Signed for 2004: Jose Contreras (7), Chris Hammond (2.4), Steve Karsay (5), Jon Lieber (2.45), Mike Mussina (14), Mariano Rivera (8.9), Jeff Weaver (6.25), Jorge Posada (6), Jason Giambi (10), Derek Jeter (17), Hideki Matsui (7), Bernie Williams (12)

    Arbitration Eligible: Aaron Boone (4), David Delucci (1), Karim Garcia (1), Nick Johnson (3), Alfonso Soriano (8), Enrique Wilson (750k)

    On the hook for: 115.75M currently

    Well, even if they keep everyone currently on their roster, Brian Cashman has a lot to spend. Conceivably, this team could add Sheffield (12), Colon (12), and two good relievers (10?), and sit right around 150M for next season. Why trade Johnson or Soriano. Just go to camp with this team, and let the pieces fall into place. Believe me, they aren't far from more rings.

    Oakland Athletics
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 49.3M

    Signed for 2004: Tim Hudson (4.55), Jim Mecir (3.3), Mark Mulder (4.4), Barry Zito (2.7), Eric Chavez (5.2), Jermaine Dye (11), Mark Kotsay (5.5), Scott Hatteberg (2.325)

    Arbitration Eligible: Chad Bradford (1.5), Erubiel Durazo (3), Frank Menechino (500k)

    On the hook for: 43.975 currently

    Well, Billy Beane doesn't have a lot more to work with. Phil Rogers suggestion the team may non-tender Durazo is stupid, although they may do so to Menechino. This team already would have a lineup and rotation in place, although signing a backup C (i.e. Pratt) would be a smart move. Basically that would leave Billy Beane $5M to spend on a bullpen, and more importantly a closer.

    Seattle Mariners
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 87.1M

    Signed for 2004: Jamie Moyer (6.5), Kaz Sasaki (8), Dan Wilson (3.5), Bret Boone (8), Edgar Martinez (4.5), Jeff Cirillo (6.725), Greg Colbrunn (1.75), John Olerud (7.7), Raul Ibanez (4.3)

    Arbitration Eligible: Ben Davis (1), Ryan Franklin (3), Carlos Guillen (3), Gil Meche (2), Joel Pineiro (3), Ichiro Suzuki (7), Randy Winn (3.5)

    On the hook for: 73.475M currently

    In this, I assumed the team to non-tender Freddy Garcia and to keep Randy Winn, as those are the moves I would do. That leaves Bill Bavasi with a little more than $10M to sign a very good SS and to get some solid middle relief into that team. And, oh yeah, they could also use another cheaper starter. Well, I guess you can say I'm not bullish on the M's next season!

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 18.75M

    Signed for 2004: Tino Martinez (1.5), Paul Abbott (600k), John Halama (750k)

    Arbitration Eligible- Marlon Anderson (1.5), Rob Bell (750k), Jeremi Gonzalez (2), Aubrey Huff (4), Adam Piatt (500k), Damian Rolls (500k)

    On the hook for: 12M currently

    I don't really know how much this leaves the inept Chuck LaMar, although I'm guessing about $13M on the current market. Spending that money on Tom Gordon, Mike Cameron, and Arthur Rhodes would put them very close to a .500 contender, although that is leaving the team without a 3B. Well, I know the first order of business should be firing LaMar!

    Texas Rangers
    2003 Opening Day Payroll: 72.941M

    Signed for 2004: Alex Rodriguez (20), Chan Ho Park (13), Jay Powell (3), Jeff Zimmerman (4.3), Todd Van Poppell (3), Einar Diaz (2.5), Herbert Perry (1.7), Rusty Greer (7.4), Mark Teixeira (2.1??)

    Arbitration Eligible- Francisco Cordero (1), Michael Young (2)

    On the hook for: $60M currently

    Well, I think the opening day figure for 72.941 is a little low, because I thought the team wanted to significantly drop payroll to 70M for this season? Well, John Hart has about 10M to spend on this team, which includes a cheap corner outfielder, Palmiero, and 1-2 cheap starters. I think Hicks might be unrealistic hoping for $70M next season, unless he really does accept that Manny for A-Rod deal.

    Toronto Blue Jays
    2003 Opening Day Payroll- 45M? No sources on this!

    Signed for 2004: Pat Hentgen (2.2), Frank Catalanotto (2.3), Greg Myers (900k), Carlos Delgado (18.5), Eric Hinske (800k), Vernon Wells (700k)

    Arbitration Eligible: Roy Halladay (10), Ted Lilly (2.5), Trever Miller (750k), Cliff Pollitte (1), Pete Walker (750k), Chris Woodward (1.5)

    On the hook for: 41.9 currently

    Well, there is still a lot to do for a team that is nearing last season's payroll. With about 5 million, Riccardi is hoping to add one more starter, a good late-inning reliever, and a middle infielder. Paul Quantrill is the reliever they are hoping for, but even Ben Sheets may be asking too much. Toronto will need a $50M payroll to succeed next season, and then the team will lose Carlos Delgado the following year and start to compete.

    That's it. E-Mail me with any corrections, and let me reiterate this is vastly unofficial, I made up all the arbitration figures. But I did work hard on this, so don't bash me in e-mails too much! Have a good one...

    WTNYNovember 22, 2003
    Tino, Escobar, Appier
    By Bryan Smith

    As promised, Tino Martinez was traded to the Devil Rays, with the Cardinals sending $7M of the $8.5M Tino is owed through next season. Tampa sent Evan Rust, a 25-year old reliever, and a player to be named later. Let's look at some numbers:

    Tino Martinez- 273/352/429
    Martinez vs. RH- 281/358/446 Martinez vs. LH- 235/323/346
    Martinez at home- 286/372/440 Martinez away- 260/333/417
    Before Break- 281/350/455 After Break- 261/356/386

    Evan Rust at AA- 1-3 2.65 28/34 35/15
    Rust at AAA- 2-2 3.25 32/36 26/10

    So, Tino can't hit left-handers, and struggled away and after the break. But hey, he's got that veteran presence we all love. He goes along with Paul Abbott and John Halama under the category of Piniella acquisitions, indicating how little pull Chuck LaMar has on this franchise. He is a yes man, and it's a matter of weeks (in my mind), before Jim Bowden sits atop the D-Rays.

    I thought that maybe one bonus Tino had was defense, but the statistics proved me wrong. He was 7th in the National League with 1.79 defensive win shares, thanks to the boys over at www.baseballgraphs.com. And using Dave Pinto's new defensive statistic, Martinez was 12th among first base regulars. Who was top on that list? None other than former Devil Ray, Travis Lee.

    Lee is a very similar player that will provide a little less veteran leadership, and a little more on defense. At the plate, Lee hit 275/348/459, which is virtually the same production from the plate. If Lee ends up signing for $1.5M or less, this wasn't the right move. If he gets $3M, than Lou and LaMar have a little defense. Tampa still will sign a 3B (Tony Batista?), and a RF (Carl Everett), so their offense is hardly finished.

    While much press has come from St. Louis that Albert Pujols will play first next season, I don't see it happening. John Gall is one of their better prospects, and here are his stats from AAA last season:

    John Gall at AAA- 312/368/473 16HR/73RBI

    Not bad at all. So Gall will come in and play first base, and we will see the following lineup from the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals:

    1. Bo Hart- 2B
    2. J.D. Drew- RF
    3. Albert Pujols- LF
    4. Jim Edmonds- CF
    5. Scott Rolen- 3B
    6. Scott Renteria- SS
    7. John Gall- 1B
    8. Mike Matheny- C

    Rust is a solid addition, and could pitch in the 2004 bullpen that so far only has Jason Isringhausen, Kiko Calero, and Cal Eldred. Rust will probably battle with the likes of Jimmy Journell and Mike Crudale for a spot. He's a hard-thrower, and him, along with Gall, will make St. Louis forger Mr. Martinez.

    Next transaction: Kelvim Escobar signs with the Anaheim Angels for three seasons, worth $18.75M. Let's see the statistics:

    Kelvim Escobar as starter- 12-8 3.92 162/163 136/70
    Escobar at home- 5-7 5.65 119/95.2 91/43
    Escobar away- 8-2 2.76 70/84.2 68/35
    Before Break- 5-6 4.72 99/87.2 86/38
    After Break- 8-3 3.89 90/92.2 73/40

    For his totals I left out about 15 bad relief appearences, although they are included in the home, away, and pre-all star game splits. Escobar finally found his niche in 2003, pitching very well in the Toronto starting rotation. He was very good on the road, and will be moving from the Majors 5th best stadium for hitters, to the 25th.

    Escobar throws his fastball 95mph, and can throw a mean breaking pitch. He walks a lot of people, and may join the few and proud of topping the 100 marker over one season. He struck out less people per inning after the break, probably because he didn't have any relief appearences the final three months.

    Lee Sinins reports this won't decrease interest in Bartolo Colon, but if the Angels can snag Colon I imagine Jarrod Washburn would be non-tendered. But right now, we are looking at a rotation in Anaheim of:

    Jarrod Washburn- LH
    Kelvim Escobar- RH
    Ramon Ortiz- RH
    John Lackey- RH
    Aaron Sele- RH

    And remember, Ervin Santana and Bobby Jenks are getting closer to Anaheim everyday. The Blue Jays knew this was coming, ever since Kelvim turned down a two-year, $10M offer from Riccardi. J.P. has already added Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen, and Sinins writes the team will have interest in Ben Sheets. One Batter's Box thread gives a good offer of Jayson Werth, Kevin Cash, and Brandon League.

    Good move by the Angels, although the Blue Jays won't be missing too much. And if this ends the interest in Colon, he may have no choice but to sign with New York.

    Finally, the Kansas City Royals signed Kevin Appier for the league minimum of $300,000. This isn't exactly an impact signing, after considering Appier's 2003:

    Appier in 2003: 8-9 5.40 120/111.2 55/43
    Appier with KC: 1-2 4.26 15/19 5/7

    Kevin didn't pitch particularly badly with the Royals, although one of his four starts only went two innings, due to a sore elbow. Obviously that has been checked out, and Kevin will be back with average or below-average six inning starts in 2004. Baird can't go wrong here, as 300K is nothing, and Appier can't go wrong, because Anaheim still owes him $12M. Right now, the Royals rotation has Appier, Runelvys Hernandez, Jimmy Gobble, Miguel Asencio, and Darrell May. I'm assuming Jeremy Affeldt will be in the bullpen, pitching very effectively next season.

    So that's the transactions I've seen. The Mark Kotsay-Ramon Hernandez deal is still yet to be finalized, and Kevin Towers will take the offer away if Beane doesn't accept it by tomorrow. So, that's an interesting thing to watch out for. Other news and rumors:

    - The Baltimore Orioles are close to trading for Derrek Lee, apparently for young pitching. Lee will make about $7.5M in 2004, and the Marlins wish to save their money for Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, and...

    - Ivan Rodriguez isn't close to signing with Florida. Pudge wants 5 years and $50M, the Marlins want 2 years and $15M. I would say that is pretty far off, wouldn't you? Other than Florida, only the Cubs are showing a lot of interest in Rodriguez.

    - Tony Graffanino will probably sign with the Red Sox some time next week, and fellow infielder Jeff Cirillo is going to be released this offseason. Boston is planning on non-tendering Jeremy Giambi, and avidly pursuing Adam Kennedy when he is non-tendered. TGraff and Kennedy would platoon at second.

    - The Yankees will not pursue Vladimir Guerrero, and hopes David Well's will take a non-roster invite. The Padres remain interested in Wells, and would probably guarantee a contract. Andy Pettite is drawing interest from New York, Houston, and now Boston.

    - Guerrero may be left with just the Orioles and Expos, with Baltimore picking up the MLB trash. This would leave Miguel Tejada to just the Angels, Dodgers, or the Cubs. Gary Sheffield wants the Yankees, but is unimpressed with their offer. Supposedly, Atlanta currently has a better offer. If the Braves lose out on Sheffield they'll likely sign Millwood, and the Phillies will trade for Schilling.

    - Sterling Hitchcock is gaining interest on the free agent market, notably from the Cubs. Chicago is also interested in left-hander Eric Milton, who may go to the Red Sox. Boston is also pursuing Jarrod Washburn in a trade.

    - A few 40-man roster waiver claims: Walter Young (1B) claimed by Orioles from Pirates, Duaner Sanchez (RP) claimed by LA from Pirates, Mario Ramos (LHP) claimed by Oakland from Texas, Edwin Almonte (RP) claimed by Boston from Mets, Matt Guerrier claimed by Twins from Pirates. Pittsburgh has too many players, and left off a bunch from the 40-man. Another interesting one is Chris Shelton, a C/1B who raked in A+ last year. More on potential Rule V picks next week.

    Have a good weekend and I'll be back on Monday.

    WTNYNovember 21, 2003
    Foreign Friday
    By Bryan Smith

    A few odds and ends on a Friday. I have AL Central OPS reports below, and I'll post AL East, along with news on a transaction if need be. I fully expect that to be Tino Martinez becoming a Devil Ray, when I'll get the chance to write 500-1000 words bashing the Devil Rays. Ahh...good times.

    First, a little foreign news. Kaz Matsui, the next big-name player to come overseas, announced he is surely coming to America. This wasn't headline material, as it was seen coming. I wrote earlier the rumors to the New York teams were idiotic, and he'll end up on the West Coast, or Baltimore. Yesterday I said he'd be good in Seattle, likely hitting forty doubles in the two-hole.

    Fellow Japanese middle infielder, Tadahito Iguchi, announced he will wait a year to pursue the Major Leagues. I wrote about Iguchi a few weeks ago, and speculation had been he would land with the New York Mets. He broke out in 2003, and will use next season to build on his breakout season. Next year, he'll have the title of the best Japanese import of the year. This season, he's the third best foreign player.

    That is, of course, because Korean first basemen Lee Seung-yeop is right behind Matsui. Seung is in town this week, disappointed he is yet to receive a contract offer. He'll be putting on a show in Los Angeles, hoping the Dodgers offer some dough. He's a very good fit there, and Lo Duca could play first vs. left-handers to ease Lee into Major League play. I mean, Hell, he can't be worse than Fred McGriff!

    Finally, the Padres spend $300,000 yesterday to retain negotiating rights of Japanese closer Akinori Otsuka. A look at the last three seasons for Otsuka, thanks to japanesebaseball.com...

    2001: 26Sv 48G 42H/56IP 82K/15BB 4.02ERA
    2002: 22Sv 41G 22H/44.1IP 54K/3BB 1.28ERA
    2003: 17Sv 51G 31H/43IP 56K/5BB 2.09ERA

    It looks like the days are gone when Otsuka pitches multiple innings, so he'll really be used in the set-up role next season. I don't know if this means Rod Beck is gone or not, but my guess is yes. Beck will catch on somewhere, with my gut telling me Chicago, Boston, or Oakland. Otsuka obviously has fantastic control, but his numbers aren't quite as dominant as Kaz Sasaki's were. But Sasaki's impact was huge, and I think this is a nice attempt by Kevin Towers, who is pulling every cord to improve this team.

    40-man rosters were due by yesterday at midnight, so next week I'm hoping to write an article on the best Rule V options available. Walter Young, a solid first base prospect of the Pirates, didn't make Pittsburgh's forty, so the Baltimore Orioles claimed him on waivers. Solid pick-up, but the Pirates will be fine at first base since Ryan Shelton or Doumit will have to move there. Nothing strikes me as surprising off the bat, but my weekend job is to find some solid available players. That and fan suggested articles coming next week.

    Big day for college recruiting yesterday, and if I knew anything about college baseball, I'd be happy to pass it on...

    My prediction of Sheffield to the Yankees is a gimme, and the Danys Baez situation is the most confusing in baseball. There really is a flaw if Mark Shapiro can pay him near the minimum next year. But if so, nice loophole find by Shapiro...

    I have to admit, that's all, except for some OPS reports below. Enjoy...

    Minnesota Twins
    Doug Mientkiewicz- 851, 757, 843
    Luis Rivas- 681, 697, 689
    Christian Guzman- 814, 677, 676- Three down
    Corey Koskie- 850, 815, 845
    Jacque Jones- 752, 852, 797
    Shannon Stewart- 834, 813, 823
    Torii Hunter- 785, 858, 763

    Chicago White Sox
    Frank Thomas- 1061, 833, 952
    Paul Konerko- 856, 857, 704
    Robbie Alomar- 956, 707, 682- Three down
    Jose Valentin- 845, 790, 776- Three down
    Carlos Lee- 789, 843, 830
    Carl Everett- 761, 772, 876- Three up
    Magglio Ordonez- 915, 978, 926

    Kansas City Royals
    Brent Mayne- 678, 619, 651
    Mike Sweeney- 916, 980, 858
    Desi Relaford- 836, 713, 691- Three down
    Joe Randa- 693, 767, 800- Three up
    Rondell White- 900, 666, 829
    Carlos Beltran- 876, 847, 911

    Cleveland Indians
    Matt Lawton- 797, 741, 763
    Milton Bradley- 620, 723, 922- Three up

    Detroit Tigers
    Brandon Inge- 453, 599, 603- Three up
    Dmitri Young- 831, 787, 909
    Bobby Higginson- 812, 762, 689- Three down

    Recap time. Here are the players who have very positive indicators from the last three years:

    Carl Everett- OF- Free Agent
    Joe Randa- 3B- Free Agent
    Milton Bradley- OF- Indians
    Brandon Inge- C- Tigers- Might break .610 next season

    And for those with negative tendencies:

    Christian Guzman- SS- Twins
    Robbie Alomar- 2B- Free Agent
    Jose Valentin- SS- White Sox
    Desi Relaford- IF- Royals
    Bobby Higginson- OF- Tigers

    Have a good weekend and check back if anything worthy of note happens...

    WTNYNovember 20, 2003
    Seattle Slew
    By Bryan Smith

    Thanks everyone who has sent in e-mails for article suggestions, they have definitely helped. I'm going to write a few of them next week, so stay tuned for that. I'm also hoping some more Organizational Meetings get posted next week, and I'm looking forward to that. I'm sorry to announce the Seattle Mariner e-mails I sent out went unanswered, so I'm going to have to tackle Seattle on my own...

    First off, let me say I was correct in predicting Raul Ibanez would come to Seattle. But hell, I didn't think it would be that fast! Ibanez signed quickly, bringing in a three-year deal worth a total of $13M. It is a lot of money to pay someone who just exited their prime seasons, and the guys at U.S.S. Mariner are in a frenzy about the signing. While I disagree with David Cameron that John Vander Wal would have been a better choice, Matt Stairs may have. Anyway, let's check out some Raul stats:

    Ibanez: .294/.345/.454
    Ibanez vs. RH- .319/.371/.485 Ibanez vs. LH- .245/.291/.392
    Ibanez in KC- .316/.381/.482 Ibanez away- .274/.328/.427
    Before Break- .286/.337/.454 After Break- .307/.356/.454

    Well, those numbers don't exactly help Bill Bavasi's case. Ibanez can't hit left-handers at all, and really struggled with power away from Kauffman Stadium. He's moving to Safeco Field, which isn't exactly a haven for power hitters. His numbers in the second half were a little stronger, but that holds true throughout his career. Ibanez is a platoon case waiting to happen, and Bavasi will see a .275/.325/.425 season if he isn't careful.

    But, rumors are the Mariners will still go after Mike Cameron, with the intent of platooning Randy Winn and Ibanez in left. Winn hit .314/.368/.491 vs. LH in 2003, and .323/.379/.490 during the last three seasons. So if Bavasi sticks with this, he'll keep a very good defensive outfield vs. LH, and he'll have a pretty solid platoon combination in left field. White Sox fans are very happy, as the rival Royals lose a solid leftie bat, and those Freddy Garcia for Carlos Lee rumors go away.

    We'll deal with Garcia in a minute, but let me close the hitting. There is obviously another gap in this lineup, and Bavasi must fill it with a shortstop. Normally, I would support Miguel Tejada for this job, but given cash consideration and Safeco field, I'm going to choose Kaz Matsui. He is more of a doubles hitter than Tejada, and his speed will provide a spark with Ichiro at the top. It would make Seattle's lineup look like:

    1. Ichiro Suzuki- RF
    2. Kaz Matsui- SS
    3. Bret Boone- 2B
    4. Edgar Martinez- DH
    5. Raul Ibanez/Randy Winn- LF
    6. John Olerud- 1B
    7. Mike Cameron- CF
    8. Carlos Guillen- 3B
    9. Dan Wilson/Ben Davis- C

    That's not bad, but it's pretty imperative the team signs Mike Cameron. While his bat is getting worse and worse in Safeco, he helps the team in so many other ways. Also, the team really lacks a real #5 hitter, but that was Ibanez's former role with the Royals. They are getting old fast, but this lineup would definitely compete with those indivision.

    Getting back to Freddy and the pitching, I think it's imperative the team trade Garcia. Rafeal Soriano is more than ready for the rotation, and the way he pitched down the stretch, he'd likely be more effective than Freddy was. I don't know what Garcia would yield on the market, but an overpaid effective reliever would seem like a good fit. If Garcia was to stay, the rotation would look like this, along with second half ERA:

    1. Jamie Moyer- 3.59
    2. Ryan Franklin- 3.34
    3. Joel Pineiro- 4.57
    4. Freddy Garcia- 4.67
    5. Gil Meche- 6.07

    But, by bringing in Soriano, and his sparkling 1.14 ERA, this rotation has some spark. And while Franklin has a lot of positive indicators, his K/9 rate has decreased every season thus far in the Majors. If any member(s) of this rotation were to struggle, the trio of Rett Johnson, Clint Nageotte, and Travis Blackley will be ready to take over. Hell, by midseason the Mariners could be sporting Jamie Moyer and 4 pitchers well under 25 years of age.

    The real scare of the Mariners is their bullpen, which is currently employing two members. Kazuhiro Sasaki is becoming decreasingly effective in his old age, and if needed Soriano might move back to close at some point. I really like Julio Mateo, the other returning member who put in fifty solid games last season. He is very capable of going multiple innings, and really doesn't hurt himself with the walk.

    Bringing back Armando Benitez isn't a bad idea, as he gets a lot more flak than he deserves. Armando holds right-handers to an OPS under .600, and left-handers under .650. He would be a very solid set-up man, and could take over Sasaki's position if necessary. But like all relievers, Bavasi must be careful to overpay. Waiting to see Keith Foulke's contract is important, because if he can only net $4 or 5M per, the market goes way down. The team also needs a LOOGY, and probably have a price they'd like to match. Arthur Rhodes could be brought back, although I think he'll re-join Lou in Tampa. Mark Guthrie is a name no one is talking about, and I don't think he'd be a bad addition.

    The last two bullpen spots are unimportant, and could easily be filled by younsters. Bobby Madritsch, the 2002 Independent League Pitcher of the Year, had very good K/9 numbers in AA, and could be a valuable second leftie/long reliever in the bullpen. Aaron Looper and Aaron Taylor will likely battle for the final slot. I'm a big proprietor of going with cheap bullpens, and to have an effective starting lineup, Bavasi must go cheap.

    Staying in the AL West, I caught a lot of criticism from a certain Billy Beane fan in my inbox yesterday, who seemed to strongly disagree with my comments. Avkash thinks the Oakland deals were made about money first and talent second. While I would normally agree, I just can't in this situation. Beane lost Miguel Tejada and Keith Foulke from his payroll, so the $2M he'll save with Kielty and Kotsay aren't THAT important. In my mind, Beane becomes enfatuated with players easily, and while they are good choices, he could overpay at times. He's a very good GM, don't get me wrong, but he ain't the best in the bigs.

    Also, Patel disagreed with my bashing of the Scott Hatteberg extension and Jeremy Brown choice. He says Brown was a money pick, and while he could have grabbed him in the 8th, he needed to save money. And this, I must admit, is pretty true. Brown signed for $350,000, which was the lowest at that time. Oakland payed their next two picks in the 700s, which indicated they did have some money to spend. And hell, Blue Jays solid prospect David Bush was picked 55th, and only signed for 100K more than Brown. Believe me, Bush is higher on my prospect chart than Jeremy.

    Finally, I also got an e-mail from someone who noted the ridiculous rumor of Miguel Tejada going to the Tigers. Miguel has some better options, although it would be fun to listen in on Dambrowski's offer to Miguel. Miguel is going to either Anaheim or the Cubs, with the Orioles having an outside chance. Also, the A's claimed Mario Ramos off waivers, the same player sent to receive Carlos Pena two seasons ago. For all the bashing I do of Beane, he is very good on claiming people off waivers. Ramos still has potential, and I think the A's could be the team to transform him into the John Halama type.

    Finally, here are the OPS trends for AL West players, without comments today...

    Mariners
    Dan Wilson- 708, 722, 611
    Ben Davis- 694, 717, 666
    John Olerud- 873, 893, 762
    Edgar Martinez- 966, 888, 895
    Bret Boone- 950, 801, 901
    Carlos Guillen- 688, 720, 753- Three up
    Randy Winn- 740, 821, 771
    Raul Ibanez- 848, 883, 799
    Mike Cameron- 833, 782, 775- Three down
    Ichiro Suzuki- 838, 818, 788- Three down

    Beaners
    Scott Hatteberg- 677, 807, 725
    Erubiel Durazo- 909, 945, 804
    Miguel Tejada- 802, 862, 808
    Eric Chavez- 878, 861, 864
    Jose Guillen- 695, 654, 928
    Mark Kotsay- 807, 811, 727
    Jermaine Dye- 813, 792, 514- Three down

    Angels
    Ben Molina- 660, 596, 747
    Brad Fullmer- 770, 888, 887
    Scott Spiezio- 764, 807, 779
    Adam Kennedy- 690, 794, 743
    David Eckstein- 712, 751, 650
    Troy Glaus- 895, 805, 807
    Garret Anderson- 792, 871, 886- Three up
    Darin Erstad- 691, 702, 642
    Tim Salmon- 748, 883, 838

    A-Rod's Team
    Einar Diaz- 715, 542, 635
    Rafeal Palmiero- 944, 962, 867
    Michael Young- 700, 690, 785
    Alex Rodriguez- 1021, 1015, 996- Three down
    Juan Gonzalez- 960, 775, 901

    Reviewing, only two players, Carlos Guillen and Garret Anderson had positive indicators. Guillen will probably build on a .753 season, and Anderson needs about 20 walks to reach the .900 plateau. If he reaches it, Peter Gammons will launch a nationwide campaign for his election of MVP, President, and Boston Mayor.

    Mike Cameron, Ichiro, Jermaine Dye, and A-Rod have had three seasons with OPS on the decline. Cameron would reverse that outside of Safeco, but inside who knows? Ichiro could very well have a .775 season next yar, staying with his decline rate. Dye really can't get worse than .514, and might even be back in the 700s next season. A-Rod, well, .996 ain't bad. If he declines to .990, I don't think anyone will care. Decline or not, he's the best baseball player alive, end of story.

    WTNYNovember 19, 2003
    Pair of Deals and lots more
    By Bryan Smith

    Busy day in the Majors, as I've got two trades and a signing to discuss. ESPN was quick to report a Mark Kotsay for Ramon Hernandez and Terrence Long deal, as it is yet to be finalized. But my guess is that it will be, so my comments are going up today. And if you haven't seen Christian Ruzich's new blog, you shouldn't be calling yourself a baseball fan.

    In the proposed deal, the Padres would be netting the catcher Kevin Towers wanted, and a left-handed bat for the outfield. I talked about San Diego's claim of Henri Stanley a couple of days ago, but the Long acquisition ruins Stanley's, and Todd Sears' chances of making the team. Before I go too far into it, let's look at a few numbers:

    Hernandez: .273/.331/.458
    Hernandez vs. RH: .302/.365/.494 vs. LH- .208/.255/.376
    Ramon at Home: .266/.332/.425 away- .280/.331/.488
    Before Break: .266/.322/.447 after break- .288/.343/.471

    Long: .245/.293/.385
    Long vs. RH: .249/.302/.408 vs. LH: .236/.270/.329
    Long at home: .277/.328/.460 away: .218/.263/.321
    Before Break: .251/.300/.405 after break: .236/.282/.354

    Wow, Long is bad. Long can hit right-handers a lot more than left-handers, and he can play left and center. That will be the extent of his playing time in San Diego. He was terrible away from Alameda, and he was God-awful after the All-Star break. He'll never get 400AB again, but with the Padres now going with a terrible outfield, he'll come into games late.

    Hernandez, on the other hand, shows very promising numbers. His slugging percentage was .488 away from home, and it was .471 after the break. He actually showed a backwards platoon split, although it was the first time in his career in which that held true. I think he has the ability to top a .500 slugging percentage in San Diego, although it's unfair to expect a .350OBP. He's durable and powerful, and won't have problems behind San Diego's big guns.

    So, as I see it, San Diego has shored up their 2004 starting lineup. It will look something like:

    1. Mark Loretta- 2B- RH
    2. Sean Burroughs- 3B- LH
    3. Phil Nevin- LF- RH
    4. Brian Giles- CF- LH
    5. Ryan Klesko- 1B- LH
    6. Ramon Hernandez- C- RH
    7. Xavier Nady- RF- RH
    8. Khalil Greene- SS- RH

    Although, let me say I love Jonah Keri's idea of trading Nevin or Klesko for starting (Odalis?), and then going after Mike Cameron to play center field. That would really improve this team, and I would then be ready to hand them the divisional crown. After Sabean beat Towers to Pierzynski, it was essential for Kevin to make a quick deal. I think Hernandez will outperform A.J. in terms of OPS next season, and right now the Padres might be favored to win this division.

    Oakland got Mark Kotsay in this deal, and landed Bobby Kielty in exchange for Ted Lilly. Let's look at the two hitters that Billy Beane has landed:

    Kotsay: .266/.343/.384
    Kotsay vs. LH: .236/.316/.329 vs. RH: .278/.353/.406
    Kotsay at home: .266/.360/.353 away: .266/.324/.415
    Before Break: .245/.329/.340 After break: .290/.360/.438

    Kielty: .244/.358/.400
    Kielty vs. LH: .300/.417/.500 vs. RH: .216/.328/.328
    Kielty at home: .222/.321/.387 away: .267/.397/.416
    Before Break: .252/.370/.420 After break: .233/.342/.376

    I banked on Kotsay this season, probably overdrafting him in a few fantasy leagues. A bad back led to me later releasing him, and to him putting up only decent 2003 numbers. It's important to look at the platoon split, as Oakland has a few (Chavez, Durazo, Hatteberg) left-handers already. Eric Byrnes is going to platoon here, as he slugged .524 off southpaws last year. The numbers Kotsay posted after the break are indicative on his performance, and there is a strong likelihood that Kotsay is the 2004 Oakland A's leadoff man. There goes my Kenny Lofton idea.

    J.P. Riccardi worked with Billy Beane a long time, and has noticed a flaw. He likes people too much. He chose Jeremy Brown in the first round, when he could have had him in the 8th. And with Kielty, he ended up paying a lot for a guy who didn't have a good season. But I like Kielty as well, so I think this will eventually work out for Beane. Kielty hits left-handers very well, but if he continues to hit so poorly vs. RH, Billy McMillon is going to steal some at-bats. He will be a major piece of the puzzle in 2004, and Beane is counting on him, and fellow "holy grail" acquisition Erubiel Durazo to lead them to the playoffs.

    And let me go off on a few Oakland tangents. To anyone saying Oakland will use Jeremy Brown next year: you are an idiot. I think Minnesota's rushing Joe Mauer too much, and he's the Majors top prospect. Brown, he ain't in the top 50. Oakland is prepared to use Melhuse, and don't be shocked if they sign Todd Pratt, who slugs lefties and walks a lot. Also, I was re-reading Moneyball. Hatteberg, the supposed posterchild of the book, is now the antichrist. If the book is about spotting inefficiencies and managing resources, why sign Scott to an extension. Graham Koonce has the patience and power philosophy Oakland loves, at an eighth less the cost of Scott. God, Beane is SOOO overrated.

    With this, Beane is done fixing that offense. It needs little tweaking, so you'll see some variation of this:

    Oakland vs. RH Oakland vs. LH
    1. Kotsay- CF 1. Scutaro- 2B???
    2. Crosby- SS 2. Crosby- SS
    3. Chavez- 3B 3. Kielty- LF
    4. Durazo- DH 4. Chavez- 3B
    5. Kielty/McMillon- LF 5. Byrnes- CF
    6. Hatteberg- 1B 6. Durazo- DH
    7. Dye- RF 7. Dye- RF
    8. Melhuse- C 8. Hatteberg- 1B
    9. Ellis- 2B 9. Pratt- C

    OK, finally, moving onto Toronto. I'm going to team the acquisition of Pat Hentgen ($2.2M) into this, and analyze Riccardi landing two pitchers. Let's see those numbers (W-L ERA H/IP K/BB):

    Lilly: 12-10 4.34 179/178.1 147/58
    Lilly at home: 7-5 3.95 83/86.2 65/25 away: 5-5 4.71 96/91.2 82/33
    Before Break: 5-7 4.96 110/105.1 80/37 after: 7-3 3.45 69/73 67/21

    Hentgen: 7-8 4.09 150/160.2 100/58
    at home: 4-4 3.95 78/84.1 57/32 away: 3-4 4.25 72/76.1 43/26
    Before Break: 1-5 5.25 81/73.2 43/31 after: 6-3 3.10 69/87 57/27

    Lilly was another player I chose in my fantasy draft, but he proved a little too wishy-washy for my fantasy needs. He's a great pitcher and I love watching him, but is it ever going to completely come together? It did in the second half, which seems to be Riccardi's motives behind both of these moves. Lilly's ERA will suffer a bit moving to the Skydome, but I think he'll be a better pitcher than 4.34. He'll have a 4.00 ERA next year, when he would have had a 3.50 in Oakland.

    Hentgen is an interesting addition, and a little expensive as well. If J.P. waited on this, he probably could have saves 700K or something along those lines. Hentgen had a disastrous first half that was even worse than the numbers, because there are 22 effective relief innings in that 5.25 ERA. He really got his stuff back in the second half, and became the Hentgen of old. He was virtually the same inside and outside of Camden Yards, so I would ignore that. I can't call him an innings-eater, just another Riccardi gamble. He's a decent third starter, and will do a helluva lot better than Cory Lidle last year.

    In case you didn't realize it, this really does mean Escobar and Lidle are both gone. Kelvim is said to be deciding between Philly and Anaheim, and should be on a team in days. Lidle might be a tiny one-year deal, my guess with the White Sox, who coveted him a year ago.

    Continuing on with rumors, the Reds have finalized their list of managers to 4: Dave Miley (interim), Jerry Manuel (ex-manager), Brian Graham (Player Development guy for Pittsburgh) and John McLaren (Pinella's bench coach). My guess? Miley and Graham will be eliminated, and O'Brien's first decision will be down to Manuel and McLaren. I would urge not to go after Manuel, but it probably will be the former Manager of the Year.

    And finally before I get to the OPS numbers, let me say something about a pair of shortstops. Kaz Matsui is not going to the Yankees nor the Mets, and Alex Rodriguez isn't going anywhere, much less the Mets. Matsui will go where he can play shortstop, and that is disputed with the New York teams. Ultimately, Little Matsui's decision is between Baltimore, Anaheim, Seattle, and Los Angeles. Texas is not going to trade A-Rod, and they really should stop bitching about it. John Hart ultimately has $50 million for 24 players, and A-Rod. I don't think Billy Beane would be bitching with that situation.

    OK, to continue my look at OPS numbers, here are the 3-year trends for NL West players, which are a little over 30 players:

    San Fran G-Men
    Benito Santiago- 664, 765, 753- Getting old, and will be below .753 next year
    A.J. Pierzynski- 763, 773, 824- Three up, but matching .824 in Pac Bell? Doubtful.
    J.T. Snow- 750, 704, 805- .704 is low and .804 is high, he's a .750 player
    Ray Durham- 803, 824, 807- Durham is very consistent, a definite .800 player
    Rich Aurilia- 941, 718, 735- .941 was a joke, he's a 700-750 player, no more
    Edgardo Alfonzo- 725, 850, 725- Amazing what that .850 with the Mets made him
    Barry Bonds- 1378, 1381, 1278- I promise you, Bonds will be less than 1.278 in '04
    Marquis Grissom- 654, 831, 790- He will sit around .800 the next few seasons
    Jose Cruz Jr.- 856, 755, 780- Somewhere between .780 and .856 next season

    LA Dodgers
    Paul Lo Duca- 917, 732, 712- It will keep going down, Lo Duca was never that good
    Fred McGriff- 930, 858, 750- He'll be better than .750 outside Dodger Stadium
    Adrian Beltre- 721, 729, 714- In Los Angeles, he'll never top .750, he will elsewhere
    Robin Ventura- 778, 826, 741- Tough read, but probably right around .750
    Jeremy Burnitz- 851, 676, 786- In a hitter's park, he'll top .786
    Shawn Green- 970, 943, 815- Three down, but it won't be lower than .815

    'Zona D-Bax
    Junior Spivey- 777, 865, 759- Will live between .750-.800 for awhile
    Shea Hillenbrand- 682, 789, 782- Gets way too much bad press for nearing .800
    Craig Counsell- 721, 699, 632- Three down, but should bounce back in 2004
    Luis Gonzalez- 1117, 896, 934- Won't be touching .934 ever again
    Steve Finley- 767, 869, 863- Will be a little below .863 next season

    The Airless Boys
    Charles Johnson- 771, 670, 775- In Coors he's .775, elsewhere he's .675
    Todd Helton- 1117, 1006, 1088- Such an underrated player, always above 1.000
    Jay Payton- 669, 839, 866- The Coors effect is amazing, three straight up
    Preston Wilson- 825, 758, 880- Living to potential or helped by thin air?
    Larry Walker- 1111, 1023, 898- Three down, but I think he'll be .850-.950 next yr.

    Diego
    Ryan Klesko- 923, 925, 810- Will be back above .900 on very good 2004 team
    Mark Loretta- 698, 791, 813- What the Hell? Expect .750-.800 in '04
    Phil Nevin- 976, 757, 826- I don't have any projection for this guy
    Ramon Hernandez- 724, 648, 789- Hernandez will top .800 next season
    Terence Long- 747, 688, 678- Three down, and will be lucky to ever top .700
    Brian Giles- 994, 1072, 941- He'll be above .950 in '04

    OK, recap. Here are those precious few NL West sluggers with positive indicators:

    A.J. Pierzynski- C- Giants
    Jay Payton- LF- Rockies (I wouldn't trade for him)
    Mark Loretta- 2B- Padres

    And that is it. Pierzynski's numbers will decline in Pac Bell, Payton will be abysmal outside of Denver, and I don't think it is possible for Loretta to top .813. So that just proves the NL West is a very old, and diminishing division. Here's some more proof, those with negative indicators:

    Paul Lo Duca- C- Dodgers
    Fred McGriff- 1B- Dodgers
    Shawn Green- RF- Dodgers
    Steve Finley- CF- Diamondbacks
    Larry Walker- RF- Rockies
    Terrence Long- OF- Padres

    Of those, expect Lo Duca, Finley, Long, and possibly Walker to really feel the heat. McGriff should be better in a hitter's park, Green could bounce back, and Walker should be more motivated after Clint Hurdle verbally tore him to shreads.

    That's it for today. Pray for more trades in the next 24 hours, and send me an e-mail! I would love suggestions for articles you'd like to see, or your list of favorite baseball books. Thanks a lot!

    WTNYNovember 18, 2003
    Central OPS
    By Bryan Smith

    Big transaction news- Texas signs Andy Fox- Well, Buck Showalter signs another old friend, as Fox signs a minor league contract with the Rangers. While three of his eight seasons in the Majors have seen him hit below .200 (two out of his last three), Fox was relatively useful in 2002. He stole 31 bases in 38 tries, although his OPS didn't near .700. He plays almost every position on the diamond, although his defense is subpar. Not even worthy of the money spent on a minor league deal in my book.

    Also, the Astros signed Jose Vizcaino to an insane $1.2M contract, as Gerry Hunsicker continues to be vastly overrated. I mean, Drayton McLane must have been hoping Hunsicker would go to New York so Purpura could finally take over. $1.2 to Vizcaino? Insane. Save it for the starting.

    As these weeks in baseball are really slow, I need some help. While giving you statistics to indicate 2004 success is interesting to you, some of it isn't as exciting as other stuff. If you have any suggestions or ideas for articles you'd like to see, drop me an e-mail at bryball@hotmail.com. I appreciate it.

    Anyway, I move on today to the NL Central, looking at OPS numbers from 2001-2003 for almost 40 players. It may suprise you who is on the decline...

    Chicago Cubs
    Damian Miller- 761, 774, 679- No trends, but expect nothing more than .700
    Eric Karros- 691, 722, 786- Up three straight, and probably could top .800
    Randall Simon- 786, 779, 743- Down three straight as pitchers are figuring him out
    Mark Grudzilanek- 710, 665, 782- Big 2003 after paltry past years. .720-.760
    Alex Gonzalez- 691, 737, 704- Nothing indicative, but will sit around .700
    Aramis Ramirez- 886, 666, 789- Will be somewhere between .789-.886
    Moises Alou- 950, 756, 819- Rebounded nicely in 2003, but will be .800 in 2004
    Kenny Lofton- 720, 764, 802- Three up, but can't be much past .800
    Corey Patterson- 602, 676, 840- Three up, but 2003 number isn't telling enough
    Sammy Sosa- 1174, 993, 911- Three down, but Sosa won't dip below .900

    Cincinnati Reds
    Jason LaRue- 707, 729, 743- Three Up, and LaRue is becoming a .750-type
    Sean Casey- 827, 696, 758- Another .750 type player
    Adam Dunn- 949, 854, 819- Three down, but look for bounce back in 2004

    Houston Astros
    Brad Ausmus- 625, 675, 594- Terrible, will be lower than .625 next year
    Jeff Bagwell- 965, 919, 897- Three down, but will loom around .900 still
    Jeff Kent- 876, 933, 860- Should be posting bigger numbers next season
    Lance Berkman- 1050, 983, 927- Three down, and may put up .900 in 2004
    Craig Biggio- 837, 734, 762- Still has a couple .750 seasons in him
    Richard Hidalgo- 811, 734, 957- Who is the real Richard Hidalgo?

    St. Louis Cardinals
    Mike Matheny- 580, 630, 676- Three up, whew, may top .680 next year
    Tino Martinez- 830, 775, 781- Still can hang around .775
    Fernando Vina- 775, 671, 691- Won't hit .700 again in his career
    Edgar Renteria- 685, 803, 874- Three up, and I can see a .900 in '04
    Scott Rolen- 876, 860, 910- Right around .875-.900
    Albert Pujols- 1013, 955, 1106- Has lots of support, and I can see more 1.000
    Jim Edmonds- 974, 981, 1002- Three up, but reached his top in 2003
    J.D. Drew- 1027, 778, 886- Needs 500 healthy at-bats, could hit .900

    Pittsburgh Pirates
    Jason Kendall- 693, 706, 815- Three up, and possibly reverting to old Kendall
    Matt Stairs- 820, 827, 950- Three up, but .950 is too high to top
    Reggie Sanders- 886, 779, 912- Getting old, and should be closer to .850
    Jack Wilson- 550, 638, 656- Three up and may even hit .660 one season!

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Richie Sexson- 889, 867, 927- Pretty consistent, right around .900
    Royce Clayton- 708, 660, 634- Dipping and could be sub-.600 in '04
    Geoff Jenkins- 808, 764, 913- Like Drew, could use a full season of health
    John Vander Wal- 806, 756, 818- Can hit .800 off the bench each season

    Once again, those with three straight seasons with climbing OPS numbers:

    Eric Karros- 1B- Free Agent
    Kenny Lofton- CF- Free Agent
    Corey Patterson- CF- Cubs
    Jason LaRue- C- Reds
    Mike Matheny- C- Cardinals
    Edgar Renteria- SS- Cardinals
    Jim Edmonds- CF- Cardinals
    Jason Kendall- C- Pirates
    Matt Stairs- OF/1B- Free Agent
    Jack Wilson- SS- Pirates

    To fantasy owners, only Karros, Patterson, LaRue, Renteria, and Kendall matter from that group. And even Karros likely won't, as I don't see him reaching 500AB again during his career. But Patterson could be a late-round steal, LaRue can be a last round pick to be your catcher, Renteria is about to become the "5th shortstop," and Kendall may be a top-five catcher next season.

    Those players to watch out for, as they've had declining OPS stats:

    Randall Simon- 1B- Cubs/FA
    Sammy Sosa- OF- Cubs
    Adam Dunn- OF- Reds
    Jeff Bagwell- 1B- Astros
    Lance Berkman- OF- Astros
    Royce Clayton- SS- Free Agent

    I would stay away from all these players save Dunn, as there will likely be better options available than Sosa, Bagwell, and Berkman when they are chosen in any fantasy draft. Write that down, and e-mail me if you have any suggestions.

    WTNYNovember 17, 2003
    Looking to 2004
    By Bryan Smith

    What's up, hope y'all had a good weekend. Christian Ruzich has started a transaction blog, and analyzed the A.J. Pierzynski trade just like I did Saturday. Go visit www.all-baseball.com and say hi.

    In a recent Peter Gammons column, Peter notes a few projections, in which players have either positive or negative statistical trends. I've always found this to be a good method, so much of this week will deal with that. I have put together OPS numbers of each of the last three seasons, and we'll see which players have three straight seasons with numbers going up or down.

    Today, we begin with the NL East...

    Atlanta Braves
    Javy Lopez- 747, 641, 1065- Had breakout this season; decrease next year
    Rob Fick- 815, 764, 753- 3 years down in a row? I wouldn't sign him
    Marcus Giles- 768, 714, 916- Probably won't reach .916 next season
    Rafeal Furcal- 691, 710, 795- Three straight years up, but can he top .800
    Vinny Castilla- 775, 616, 771- Too wishy-washy to spend money on
    Chipper Jones- 1032, 971, 919- Down three years in a row, but won't be worse
    Andruw Jones- 773, 878, 851- Is an .850-type player
    Gary Sheffield- 1000, 916, 1023- Nothing indicative, a .950-1.000 player

    Florida Marlins
    Ivan Rodriguez- 888, 895, 843- My guess? Will be worse than .843 in 2004
    Derrek Lee- 820, 872, 887- Three up in a row, big breakout next season
    Luis Castillo- 685, 725, 778- Three up, but can't top .778
    Alex Gonzalez- 680, 621, 756- Breakout this season, probably a .700-type
    Mike Lowell- 788, 817, 880- Yes, he can top .900 next season
    Jeff Conine- 829, 755, 793- Up and down, but he'll be .750-.800
    Juan Pierre- 793, 675, 734- OPS doesn't matter to this speedster
    Juan Encarnacion- 700, 775, 759- Will be less than .759 but more than .700

    Philadelphia Phillies
    Mike Lieberthal- 663, 792, 826- Three up, little up for .826 is reasonable
    Jim Thome- 1040, 1122, 958- Nothing indicative, maybe up next year?
    Placido Polanco- 765, 735, 799- Will always be somewhere in between
    Jimmy Rollins- 742, 686, 707- Like Christian Guzman, very overrated
    Pat Burrell- 815, 920, 713- I would expect about .800-.850 in 2004
    Bob Abreu- 936, 934, 877- Down three straight, but won't go too far down

    Montreal Expos
    Jose Vidro- 857, 868, 867- Really consistent, no drastic changes foreseen
    Orlando Cabrera- 752, 701, 807- Will either really breakout or be .750
    Brad Wilkerson- 629, 839, 844- One of my definite 2004 breakout picks
    Vladimir Guerrero- 943, 1010, 1012- Three up, maybe big 2004?

    New York Mets
    Mike Piazza- 957, 903, 860- Three down, maybe age catching up?
    Cliff Floyd- 968, 921, 894- Three down, maybe age catching up?
    Timo Perez- 643, 768, 665- Closer to latter than .768
    Roger Cedeno- 733, 664, 698- Right around .700, terrible

    OK, let's recap. Here are the players I listed who have had three straight seasons with OPS numbers going up:

    Rafael Furcal- SS- Atlanta
    Derrek Lee- 1B- Florida
    Luis Castillo- 2B- Free Agent
    Mike Lowell- 3B- Florida
    Mike Lieberthal- C- Philadelphia
    Brad Wilkerson- OF- Montreal
    Vladimir Guerrero- OF- Free Agent

    OK, and now those with three straight down years?

    Robert Fick- 1B- Free Agent
    Chipper Jones- OF- Atlanta
    Bobby Abreu- OF- Philadelphia
    Mike Piazza- C- New York
    Cliff Floyd- OF- New York

    Wow, some big names. Of that, I think we'll see these numbers run true for Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell, Brad Wilkerson, and maybe Mike Lieberthal. Fick, Piazza, and maybe Floyd should have bad 2004s. I'll be back tomorrow...

    WTNYNovember 15, 2003
    Transaction News
    By Bryan Smith

    Since news as been dead the last week, I thought the A.J. Pierzynski trade was good enough to make a weekend post. In case you don't know the exact terms, they are:

    A.J. Pierzynski and either cash or a P2NL for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano

    At first glance I thought Brian Sabean was nuts for giving up so much young talent, but my views have cooled. Sabean is obviously big into the TINSTAPP theory, reasons behind trading Ainsworth, Nate Bump, Kevin Olsen, and lots of others in the past. Guys like Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert are rare, but getting high value for everyone else is the theory. And, it added a little offense for Mr. Bonds.

    The Giants need offense, as the first base, shortstop, and right field positions are all open during the offseason. To do so, Sabean has brought in a left-handed doubles hitting catcher that can hit anywhere in the lineup. His OPS has risen each of the last three seasons (763, 773, 824), and hits both lefties and right-handers. Some are other positives are Pierzynski's road line (328/381/486), and numbers after the break (332/391/450) are very positive indicators. Pac Bell (or whatever the Hell it is) is a big park, but I think that will fit into Pierzynski's doubles style. I expect he'll have an OPS a little above .824 next season, with his career high in RBI.

    What this means for the G-Men is Yorvit Torrealba, who many thought was ready to start, moves to the bench. While Torrealba didn't hit lefties well in 2003 (.212 in 33AB), he did very well in 2002 (.385 in 26AB). My guess is he'll battle for a spot with Alberto Castillo, or will be included in another deal Sabean pulls off. But, Yorvit won't be getting 200AB here anytime soon.

    This deal also means that San Francisco trusts Robb Nen a lot for 2003, and will not be moving Felix Rodriguez. If Worrell doesn't return either, it's a must to re-sign Herges. A one-time great bullpen is losing arms very quickly. But what this means for the Minnesota bullpen is an entirely different ordeal. Joe Nathan is suberb against right-handers (.136BAA), while left-handers hit .275 last season. It surely means LaTroy Hawkins won't be invited back, and it also infers the team is leaning towards starting Grant Balfour.

    It will be very hard to predict Nathan's success next season, as there are some confusing indicators. He had a 1.99ERA at home, but his road ERA is 3.99. He won't be in a big stadium next season, so we'll see if that makes a difference. But, there is no question that Nathan gradually improved as the season went on, which explains his 3.59 first half ERA, versus a 1.59ERA after the break. Using Joe against right-handers will give him much success next season, and I think a 2.50ERA in 70-80 innings is what you can expect.

    The other players in the deal are highly regarded pitching prospects, one of which has a blog named after him. Boof has had Baseball America top ten rankings of 11 in 2001, as high as 2 in 2002, and he dropped to six before last season. In 2002, BA said he had "maturity and talent" and noted a 92-95mph fastball. His secondary pitches "show promise", but he has trouble throwing them for strikes. Opponents were hitting just .203 before this season, and that didn't go up much this season. Boof had a pretty good season at AA, going 7-10, with a 4.00ERA. He allowed only 122 hits in 135 innings, striking out 103 while walking 67. The strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and the walk rate remains high. Bonser will be in AAA next season, and will likely take Eric Milton's spot in the rotation in 2005.

    Francisco Liriano is a much different player, as his track record is hardly existent. Liriano threw just nine terrible innings in 2003, before shoulder problems shut him down the rest of the season. While Baseball America did rank him number six in the organization before 2003, they did say the largest concern was his shoulder. Liriano is a hard-throwing leftie that had three Major League-ready pitches before his injury. He is still a very good prospect, with a considerable amount of upside. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Johan Santana.

    To clarify, Pierzynski is the only player set to make money next season, somewhere in the $2-3M range. I wonder if this signals the Giants won't bring Rich Aurilia back, which would be a huge mistake. Anyway, this trade fit to both teams needs, as it gave the Twins extra cash for Guardado and Stewart, along with a replacement for Hawkins. The Giants landed one of the league's better catchers, and another bat around Mr. Bonds...

    Quickly, other news:

    - Mike Timlin was re-signed for $2.5M, a good deal for Boston. Timlin had a sensational postseason, and definitely has gas left in the tank.
    - Danys Baez had his option declined, making him a free agent. The Phillies are said to be interested, but using Baez in any role besides middle relief is stupid.
    - The Padres made a nice claim in Henri Stanley from the Astros. He hit .292/368/445 in AAA, with good plate discipline and 15 steals. He has a very good chance to make the team in 2003, assuming he beats out Brian Buchanon for the left-handed hitting outfield bench player.
    - Sweet Lou got two old players, Paul Abbot and John Halama signed. As I see it, Jeremi Gonzalez, Victor Zambrano, Joe Kennedy, Chad Gaudin, Doug Waechtler, Jorge Sosa, Dewon Brazelton, Jon Switzer, Abbott, and Halama are all vying for rotation slots. Kennedy is probably going to be non-tendered, and he wouldn't be a bad sign for someone with a big park. My guess? Gonzalez, Zambrano, Gaudin, Waechtler, and Halama or Abbot to start the season. Sosa will go the bullpen, while Brazelton and Switzer will start in AAA.

    See ya Monday...

    WTNYNovember 14, 2003
    AFL Update (American Division)
    By Bryan Smith

    As the days are narrowing done for the Arizona Fall League, I decided to give you readers a look at what prospects are doing well, and who looks bullish for 2003. Before I start let me mention that if you didn't know mandatory steroid testing was going to happen, you are an idiot. And, Piazza really has no chance of being dealt. Nice to see Darryl Strawberry back in the game, maybe Doc Gooden can make Mel Stottlemyre's spot next season?

    Mesa Solar Sox (D-Rays, Cubs, Orioles, Rockies, Braves)

    Well, this team has been home for some of the league's best hitting, as the home run leader and the batting champ play for the same team. It's all been exciting, as the 2003 #1 draft pick made his pro debut.

    Delmon Young has 48AB so far in the AFL, and they are going wonderfully. Delmon has a fourth of his hits going for doubles, with Joe Sheehan reporting power to the opposite field. Young has tried all three outfield positions, although it's thought his home is in the corners. He's a very special athlete, and after this debut, and a legit #2 prospect in this franchise.

    That's because #1 is occupied by the Majors' best shortstop prospect B.J. Upton. B.J. is finished with the AFL, after only 24AB. He has some of the game's best plate discipline, and his power is thought to be developing. Like Derek Jeter at a similar age, Upton was horrible on defense this year, making more than 40 errors. I've read most of them are on bad throws, so it's thought to be a correctional problem. Upton hit AA this year, and might be ready full-time by 2005.

    Joining Upton and Young on prospect sheets are Devil Rays Jonny Gomes and Dewon Brazelton. Dewon has had probably the best AFL of a pitching prospect, after a few disappointing seasons. Brazelton was a top-ten choice in the same draft that has produced Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Mark Teixeira, and Gavin Floyd. He fell out of Lou Piniella's favor midseason and got demoted...to high-A! Brazelton has allowed 26 hits in 33 innings, while striking out 36. He'll get a chance to redeem himself in the Tampa rotation next season, which is suprisingly getting too many applicants.

    Gomes, the final Devil Ray prospect of note, started the AFL off as it's hottest hitter. Since, his batting average has cooled to .299, although his 17 walks are higher than any other number I saw. Gomes is second in home runs, and is one of the more toolsy players alive. He has become very disciplined, and needs to add batting for average to his resume. After this display, we think he has the power down.

    But one player Gomes can't touch is Jason Dubois, the HR leader with 9. Dubois is a Cubs RF prospect that was chosen in the Rule V draft by the Toronto Blue Jays last year, yet failed to make their team. He's hit .358 in Arizona, although his 2/27 BB/K ratio is a cause for concern. The Cubs should totally exploit his good season and trade him ASAP, as there are players above him (Kelton), and below him (Pie), that stand higher on the depth chart.

    The only other Cubs to note in the AFL are IF Brendan Harris and P John Webb. Harris is a third basemen, who also has the range to play second and short. He hits for a very high average, .302 in 96AB, but lacks real power. Scouts say it will come, yet I remain very skeptical. Harris would be extremely valuable if he can play the middle infield well, a trait he's managed in past years. My guess is he makes the Cubs in 2005 as a utility infielder, unless he hits for more power in Iowa in 2004.

    Rockies hitters aren't flourishing in the AFL, as Rockie hopefuls Brad Hawpe and Jayson Nix are both well below .300. Hawpe is a 1B/OF that nearly won the high-A triple crown a season ago. Nix is a bad fielding second basemen with Bret Boone offensive upside. Sheehan says Chris Buglovsky, a prospect never mentioned, was one of the best prospects he saw there. But, Buglovsky's numbers hardly match that praise, and he'll remain collecting dust in the mid-20s on Rockie lists.

    There are only two more players worth talking about on this team, Braves players Richard Lewis and Brett Evert. Lewis is leading the league in average, hitting .409, and has played a very good 2B. With Marcus Giles big breakthrough Lewis has no place to go, although the Braves will probably send him packing in the next deal possible. I always mention how they should go after Richie Sexson, and a LaRoche, Lewis, and Brett Evert deal might work. Evert is a big right-hander that otherwise will get a chance at an Atlanta starting spot next season. I don't think he'll make it, but his 34K in 29.1IP indicate his future may be in relief.

    No Oriole prospects were good enough to write about.

    Peoria Saguaros (Mets, Rangers, Brewers, Padres, Marlins)

    Let me start off by saying Mets 3B prospect David Wright may be my favorite prospect in the nation. The kid has a good glove, great plate discipline, and developing power. While Andy Marte is an obvious choice for the best third base prospect, Wright is not far behind, and has surpassed Dallas McPherson. Wright's hitting .341 in the AFL, with an OPS well above .900. He's a very good prospect, and I expect his AA numbers this season to be great.

    While Wright is doing well, the Mets have struggling prospects in Justin Huber and Matt Peterson. Huber is an Australian catcher who was lapped this season by Guillermo Quiroz and Dioner Navarro, dropping quickly on prospect lists. He's hitting just .233 in the AFL, and probably is headed back to AA after an injury-prone 2003. Peterson is a college draftee that probably has no gas in the tank after a very good season in high-A. Peterson is the type that has explosion potential, and may be a Met top prospect one day. For now, Mets fans should just worry about his 6.35 ERA.

    Speaking of struggling prospects, none is worse than Marlin Jason Stokes. Stokes, rumored by BA to have 50-homer potential, has hit .145 in 62 at-bats. .145, with one walk! He's falling quickly, and may even be behind former organizational teammate Adrian Gonzalez, who is on the same team once again. Gonzalez is doing pretty well in the AFL, after a late-season surge with the Rangers. Adrian also has seventeen walks, compared to only nine home runs. The former top choice in all of baseball has John Olerud offensive similarities, but 2004 will be huge for a bright star.

    Let me say that the play by Ranger prospects Jason Bourgeois and Ramon Nivar has been pretty good. Nivar will challenge for an outfield spot next season, although he doesn't bring much more than a solid batting average. Better baserunning skills will make Nivar the perfect leadoff hitter, likely setting up Michael Young and A-Rod in a good 2005 Texas team.

    Finally, I want to mention #2 draft pick Rickie Weeks has also had an encouraging camp. Weeks has walked 12 times in 72 at-bats, while managing a .319 batting average. He doesn't look secure at second, and has been tried on the left side as well. Ultimately Weeks will stay to the right side of the bag, but he must show increased fielding dedication in AA next year.

    Scottsdale Scorpions (Dodgers, Angels, Reds, Astros, D-Backs)

    I said the Angels had the best top-five prospects in all of baseball not long ago, but that's not going very well in the AFL. Casey Kotchman, the first basemen, leads the Angel hitters with a .261 batting average. Catcher Jeff Mathis, who sits right behind Mauer on prospect lists, is barely hitting over .180. And McPherson? Despite a late regular season surge, he's hitting just .218 in Arizona. Ouch.

    Arizona has quite the middle infield pair of prospects playing in Arizona, Scott Hairston and Sergio Santos. Hairston is the best second base prospect, behind Weeks, in all of baseball. He skipped a level in 2003, and will probably be in AA next season. After hitting .360 in the AFL, watch out. Santos is a high school shortstop draftee that had a very good 2003. He's struggling in Arizona, and his 22 strikeouts are way too high for 96AB.

    That's it and have a very good weekend.

    WTNYNovember 13, 2003
    GM meetings
    By Bryan Smith

    OK, now I'll have a real post. I was living in a fantasy world the last week or so, or should I say Florida, and now have baseball on the mind again. There's a lot of baseball things to talk about in the next few weeks: rumors, prospects, and more Organizational Meetings. First, I wanted to clear up some of the buzz. I've heard a rumor on almost every team, so I decided I'd address them today.

    First of all, let me say that Alex Rodriguez or Nomar Garciaparra will not get traded. I guarantee it. In fact, the only time Rodriguez will EVER get traded is if the Rangers take Manny Ramirez's contract or Darren Dreifort and Shawn Green's. That's it. Nomar won't get traded this offseason, and the team will go hard in negotiations with him. Since I think the Angels, his top choice, will solidify SS over this winter, I foresee Nomar locking himself in Boston for oh, the next 15 years.

    The other big name being thrown around is Curt Schilling. Via Lee Sinins, I've heard three Schilling rumors:

    1. Schilling for either Nick Johnson or Alfonso Soriano
    2. Schilling to Yanks, Nick Johnson to Brewers, Richie Sexson to D-Backs
    3. Schilling and Jim Edmonds to New York, Nick Johnson and Danny Bautsita to St. Louis, Jeff Weaver and Alfonso Soriano to Arizona

    OK, first of all, the Diamondbacks would be much more inclined for the second option, so I think the first is void. Richie Sexson would provide economic help (when subtracting his cost from Schilling's), as well as increased power. The Brew Crew would save tons of money, while getting a premium bat, and the Yankees would get their ace, and likely go sign a Doug Mientkiewicz type.

    The third option is what really bothers me. Aren't the Cardinals much more inclined to trade for Soriano and Weaver than Johnson and Bautista? If they are interested in Johnson, this Tino Martinez to the Devil Rays rumor must be true. I really don't understand Tampa here, because if they ponied up a little more, Derrek Lee would be theirs. Martinez doesn't have any baseball skills to speak of, and would have the same effect Vinny Castilla had in Tampa.

    Tampa rivals Toronto and Baltimore have also been home to some rumors, but from the free agent market. Toronto has been rumored to be interested in Pat Hentgen, Paul Quantrill, and Tom Gordon. All three make a lot of sense, but I hope Riccardi is thinking about offering Halladay that big extension anyday now. Baltimore may not bid higher than $15M a year on Vlad, and supposedly like Mike Piazza. I didn't know Baltimore had a highly gay population. Just kidding.

    Staying in the AL, I heard the crazy rumor that the Chicago White Sox were thinking about trading Magglio Ordonez. Bad idea. But, that must mean that Ken Williams loves Carlos Lee as much as I do, and sees him as a hugely important aspect of this team. Williams is also trying to swing a Odalis Perez for Paul Konerko deal, which I could see happening. Dan Evans acquired Konerko for the White Sox way back when, and both Perez and Konerko fit in the 2003 underachiever category. Bad contract for bad contract ain't such a bad idea.

    Kaz Matsui, who's attracted interest from every West Coast team, may pull out of his decision to come to the United States. Supposedly he wants to represent Japan in the 2004 Olympics, and is thinking of accepting a two-year deal in Japan. I don't see why he would do this, but I guess I don't particularly understand the whole loyalty issue very well.

    Milwaukee has impressed me this offseason, being heavy players in the minor league free agent market, and demanding solid value for Sexson. They have a great minor league system, and if they want to drop payroll $10M next year to save resources, who cares? Sexson must go, even if it means to the in-division Cubs.

    The rumors I've heard are that Chicago would give up both Hee Seop Choi and Juan Cruz to acquire Sexson. That is a very considerable amount, but perfectly documents how low the stocks of Choi and Cruz are right now. I'm still high on them both, and I think they should be playing 1B and starting respectively in 2004.

    Cub rival Houston is considering making a play for Roger Clemens, rather than Andy Pettite. Andy is rumored to be seeking a five-year deal, which would be pretty disastrous for the team that inks him. With his fragile body, a three-year contract is much smarter. And I agree with Alex Belth in the fact that Pettite would hardly succeed in Minute Maid Park. Oh and by the way, the Astros signed Dan Miceli. Whoopee.

    Cheers to Major League Baseball for every award so far, except NL Rookie of the Year. That subject has been much documented across the blogosphere, so I won't dive into it. Back tomorrow, I'm going to try and finish my second reading of Moneyball tonight.

    WTNYNovember 12, 2003
    Back too soon
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey everyone, I just got back from Florida. It's late. Not gonna be doing much writing today. But, I will be back tomorrow, so check back then. And if you haven't sent me your list of favorite baseball books, get on that.

    Let me thank Score Bard for putting me on the Periodic Table of Bloggers. It's always a privelage to stand alongside some of my blogging heroes, testament of the fact that this site has come so far, so fast. Thanks to you guys.

    The AFL is closing soon, and I'll be spending a couple of upcoming pieces on that, and how if effects the prospect rankings.

    In case you haven't read these, here are some links:

    Dave Pinto's fielding statistic
    Avkash Patel begins the Attrition Rate
    Rich Lederer interviews Lee Sinins

    God Bless America, and here's to all the men and women who have fought for this nation, although I am a day late.

    WTNYNovember 11, 2003
    Pre-Winter Prediction Classic
    By Bryan Smith

    Today, as GMs have begun to meet and talk trade, I decided to run some predictions. These are predictions of the 2004 season, one of four or so I will do. One is now, before everything gets started, the next is December 19 or so, before the second wave of free agents. The third preseason prediction classic should run days before pitchers and catchers report in early February, with the last coming the final week of March. So, since
    you could care less, Ill start with my article...

    After a very solid winter, the Yankees are the talk of the AL East. Gary Sheffield is an obvious upgrade in right field, and the bullpen is improved with Shigetoshi Hasegawa in middle relief. Andy Pettite and newcomer Bartolo Colon (to replace the fat void left by David Wells) fill out a pretty good rotation that sees ace Jose Contreras at the top, Mike Mussina second, and Jeff Weaver narrowly beating out Jon Lieber in the fifth spot.
    Lieber is working the Sterling Hitchcock long-relief role, waiting for his chance. After a cold April, Steinbrenner gets mocked for not moving Soriano, who then goes on a
    three-month tear and is mentioned in mid-season MVP talks.

    But, it wont be all-New York in the East, as the Red Sox are to be reckoned with. In their last season as true powerhouses, the Red Sox offense looks just as good as it was in 2003. Adam Kennedy is a Boston favorite at second, and all has been forgiven for Manny, who is two-for-three in the Triple Crown race. Byung-Hyun Kim is a pretty good fifth starter, considering the breakout year Bronson Arroyo is having. Scott Williamson is being hyped for his great closing skills, although talk of a committee begins everytime he gives up a home run.

    The rest of the AL East isnt special...again. The Blue Jays will not continue their trend of third-place finishes, as improved Oriole and Devil Ray teams pass them. Vladimir
    Guerrero looks good in a Baltimore uni, and their offense is doing well. Kurt Ainsworth has been their ace, and Jorge Julio is being mentioned in trade talks. The Devil Rays are still waiting on youngsters, but are much improved. Aubrey Huff is looking fifty doubles right in the face, and Victor Zambrano is the ALs best young starter.

    Moving on to the leagues most futile division, the AL Central. The Royals are leading the division, although they stand a measly five games above .500 through 81 games. Minnesota, who managed to bring back Stewart and Guardado (to a one-year deal), have fallen apart, blaming the losses of Doug Mientkiewicz and A.J. Pierzynski. Justin Morneau is not having that huge Rookie of the Year-type season, rather looking like the 2004 version of the 2003 Hee Seop Choi.

    Just beneath those two teams are the underperformers, the White Sox and the Indians. Chicago had high hopes for Sidney Ponson, whom is already injured for the season. Esteban Loaiza isnt quite the player he is last season, and the team will give Mark Buerhle to St. Louis at seasons end. Injuries have limited Robbie Alomars time, giving the city of Chicago a look at Aaron Miles, a 5-8 classic whom has won the towns heart. But most of all, its the non-tender of Carlos Lee that is still hurting. Cleveland is bouncing back, since Brandon Phillips and Travis Hafner couldnt have been that bad, that much. Alex Escobar is still showing potential, but needed to be benched after having 100Ks through 60 games.

    Cleveland pitching is still pretty bad though, constantly bailed out by the likes of Todd Walker and Jody Gerut. But, David Riske was sure a good choice at closer. And, lets not talk much about the Tigers. Lets just say that Delmon Young ripping everyone on the Tigers besides his brother wasnt good for clubhouse chemistry. But Delmon is sure doing good, on pace to hit 30 jacks in high-A.

    While Billy Beane keeps getting credit for the As, its the pitching that is making the difference. Rich Harden is sensational, and Justin Duchscherer is getting the job done in the fifth hole. It looks like the decision to give Rod Beck the closers role was a good one, as he already has 23 saves through June. The offense is much improved now that Jermaine Dye is above .250, and since Terrence Long has been released. A Ramon Hernandez injury tuned us in on Adam Melhuses potential, and Graham Koonce is considered the Rookie of the Year favorite. In my opinion, its the spark Kenny Lofton
    brings that gives the lineup its edge. The team is five games up, but the Angels refuse to take themselves out of the race.

    Anaheim is looking awfully smart now that Miguel Tejada has reemerged, along with Rafeal Palmieros veteran influence on the lineup. Darin Erstad is finally staying
    healthy, and isnt looking bad in the leadoff slot. Troy Glaus is poised for a 40-HR season, and wont be far down that MVP list. Garret Anderson keeps trugging along, although I have to say the Peter Gammons obsession is a little weird. I mean, calling him
    the best left fielder in California?

    Seattle was up early, but are quickly falling out of the race. Edgar Martinez and John Olerud have missed some time due to broken hips, ya know bones are so fragile at that age. Kaz Matsui is giving the team an all-Japanese one-two punch, although Mike Cameron is really missed. I did call the Raul Ibanez prediction right, but the guys at
    U.S.S. Mariner are calling for Chris Snelling. Rafeal Soriano is the best pitcher on the team, and Sasaki sucks. Some want Soriano to move to closer, but with 10 wins at the break?

    Texas cant find themselves, but justify it by saying theyll go after Kerry Wood in a couple of months. The teams just praying that John Hart will get the clue and give
    Grady Fuson the reins. A-Rod trade talk wont go away, but I promise you, the Expos rumor isnt true. Fact is, Rodriguez doesnt want to quit baseball to go into ownership quite yet. Mark Teixeira has been a stud, and this team will start to make its mark in 2005.

    The NL is a different story, where the 2003 postseason doesnt make sense anymore. Philadelphia has an Atlanta-esque 15-game lead in the NL East, bragging they are the
    perfect team. The Braves are falling apart at the seams, and Leo Mazzone blames Greg Madduxs abscence for his inability to help any of his pitchers.

    Florida did manage to keep a lot of their players...on the injured list that is. Conine, Lowell, Pudge, Beckett, and Looper are all bandaged up. Tim Spooneybarger looks to be a solid closer though, and Jack McKeon is doing a good job limiting A.J. Burnetts workload. Hell be in a Red Sox uni in a matter of weeks. And...the Mets suck.

    Chicago has been wonderful in the NL Central, capturing 15 of their last 18 games. Richie Sexson has been the bat they needed, but their worried about money after the
    Wood extension just got inked. The state of Texas is up and arms, threatening to break away from the United States unless they give up Kerry. Fox covers the story, showing nothing but Woods good-looking wife.

    Jeff Bagwell is thinking about retiring, as Houston has all but fallen out of the race. Morgan Ensberg has even been thrusted into the leadoff role, as Craig Biggios .220
    average in April and May put them into a bad start. Brad Lidge got hurt, and Octavio Dotel is pitching three innings a game, order of Jimy Williams. He insists the increased
    workload is helping Dotels arm, who no longer asks to get his chance to start. Soon, Will Carroll expects, hell be asking the doctor if he can pitch again. Roy Oswalts
    groin, captured by Japanese media (it was mistaken to be Ichiros), is the talk of Houston.

    St. Louis is swarming to take the Wild Card spot, since theyve finally found some pitching. John Thomson and Ted Lilly were good signs, and Chris Carpenter is the
    second-coming of Esteban Loaiza. The bullpen is a little bare, but the team promises to make amends by July 31. The Tino Martinez trade (Tampa) is looking great, since John Gall has thrusted himself into Rookie of the Year talks. Eli Marrero put up a 5HR, 7SB week between June 30-July 6, causing www.espn.com to overload with all the fantasy owners trying to claim him. Believe me (see April 2002), Marrero isnt a good bet.

    Milwaukee is fourth in the division, largely because of the additions of Hee Seop Choi and Juan Cruz. Trent Durrington is doing well at second base, and J.J. Hardy and Corey Hart are about to get their shots on the left side. The team couldnt get rid of Geoff Jenkins, but Bud Seligs idea to put Lenny Harris into right field wasnt a good idea. A Selig countdown clock is enthrusted in Miller Park, leading into a huge litigation suit. George Bush backs Selig, and Fidel Castro inquires about buying the team. Ya know, he did once play for the Yankees.

    San Diego is making a run at the NL West, only being threatened by the Diamondbacks. David Wells has done well in San Diego, but Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy are the biggest stories of the division. Sean Burroughs starts to find some power in that bat, and another Phil Nevin injury allows Xavier Nady to get some quality at-bats. Hoffman has become a great closer again, claiming he doesnt need stupid eyeglasses to make him effective (see Eric Gagne). And Barry Bonds? Hes bitching about how the media doesnt respect him, and makes 1,724 threats to retire. Talk of him breaking Hanks record ends, as we all begin to see his real age.

    Thats it, and if you havent sent me your favorite baseball books, please do so. Oh yea, and go Bulls!

    WTNYNovember 11, 2003
    Pre-Winter Prediction Classic
    By Bryan Smith

    Today, as GMs have begun to meet and talk trade, I decided to run some predictions.
    These are predictions of the 2004 season, one of four or so I will do. One is now, before
    everything gets started, the next is December 19 or so, before the second wave of free
    agents. The third preseason prediction classic should run days before pitchers and
    catchers report in early February, with the last coming the final week of March. So, since
    you could care less, I'll start with my article...

    After a very solid winter, the Yankees are the talk of the AL East. Gary Sheffield is an
    obvious upgrade in right field, and the bullpen is improved with Shigetoshi Hasegawa in
    middle relief. Andy Pettite and newcomer Bartolo Colon (to replace the fat void left by
    David Wells) fill out a pretty good rotation that sees ace Jose Contreras at the top, Mike
    Mussina second, and Jeff Weaver narrowly beating out Jon Lieber in the fifth spot.
    Lieber is working the Sterling Hitchcock long-relief role, waiting for his chance. After a
    cold April, Steinbrenner gets mocked for not moving Soriano, who then goes on a
    three-month tear and is mentioned in mid-season MVP talks.

    But, it won't be all-New York in the East, as the Red Sox are to be reckoned with. In
    their last season as true powerhouses, the Red Sox offense looks just as good as it was in
    2003. Adam Kennedy is a Boston favorite at second, and all has been forgiven for
    Manny, who is two-for-three in the Triple Crown race. Byung-Hyun Kim is a pretty good
    fifth starter, considering the breakout year Bronson Arroyo is having. Scott Williamson is
    being hyped for his great closing skills, although talk of a committee begins everytime he
    gives up a home run.

    The rest of the AL East isn't special...again. The Blue Jays will not continue their trend
    of third-place finishes, as improved Oriole and Devil Ray teams pass them. Vladimir
    Guerrero looks good in a Baltimore uni, and their offense is doing well. Kurt Ainsworth
    has been their ace, and Jorge Julio is being mentioned in trade talks. The Devil Rays are
    still waiting on youngsters, but are much improved. Aubrey Huff is looking fifty doubles
    right in the face, and Victor Zambrano is the AL's best young starter.

    Moving on to the league's most futile division, the AL Central. The Royals are leading
    the division, although they stand a measly five games above .500 through 81 games.
    Minnesota, who managed to bring back Stewart and Guardado (to a one-year deal), have
    fallen apart, blaming the losses of Doug Mientkiewicz and A.J. Pierzynski. Justin
    Morneau is not having that huge Rookie of the Year-type season, rather looking like the
    2004 version of the 2003 Hee Seop Choi.

    Just beneath those two teams are the underperformers, the White Sox and the Indians.
    Chicago had high hopes for Sidney Ponson, whom is already injured for the season.
    Esteban Loaiza isn't quite the player he is last season, and the team will give Mark
    Buerhle to St. Louis at season's end. Injuries have limited Robbie Alomar's time, giving
    the city of Chicago a look at Aaron Miles, a 5-8 classic whom has won the town's heart.
    But most of all, it's the non-tender of Carlos Lee that is still hurting. Cleveland is
    bouncing back, since Brandon Phillips and Travis Hafner couldn't have been that bad,
    that much. Alex Escobar is still showing potential, but needed to be benched after
    having 100Ks through 60 games.

    Cleveland pitching is still pretty bad though, constantly bailed out by the likes of Todd
    Walker and Jody Gerut. But, David Riske was sure a good choice at closer. And, let's
    not talk much about the Tigers. Let's just say that Delmon Young ripping everyone on
    the Tigers besides his brother wasn't good for clubhouse chemistry. But Delmon is sure
    doing good, on pace to hit 30 jacks in high-A.

    While Billy Beane keeps getting credit for the A's, it's the pitching that is making the
    difference. Rich Harden is sensational, and Justin Duchscherer is getting the job done in
    the fifth hole. It looks like the decision to give Rod Beck the closer's role was a good
    one, as he already has 23 saves through June. The offense is much improved now that
    Jermaine Dye is above .250, and since Terrence Long has been released. A Ramon
    Hernandez injury tuned us in on Adam Melhuse's potential, and Graham Koonce is
    considered the Rookie of the Year favorite. In my opinion, it's the spark Kenny Lofton
    brings that gives the lineup its edge. The team is five games up, but the Angels refuse to
    take themselves out of the race.

    Anaheim is looking awfully smart now that Miguel Tejada has reemerged, along with
    Rafeal Palmiero's veteran influence on the lineup. Darin Erstad is finally staying
    healthy, and isn't looking bad in the leadoff slot. Troy Glaus is poised for a 40-HR
    season, and won't be far down that MVP list. Garret Anderson keeps trugging along,
    although I have to say the Peter Gammons obsession is a little weird. I mean, calling him
    the best left fielder in California?

    Seattle was up early, but are quickly falling out of the race. Edgar Martinez and John
    Olerud have missed some time due to broken hips, ya know bones are so fragile at that
    age. Kaz Matsui is giving the team an all-Japanese one-two punch, although Mike
    Cameron is really missed. I did call the Raul Ibanez prediction right, but the guys at
    U.S.S. Mariner are calling for Chris Snelling. Rafeal Soriano is the best pitcher on the
    team, and Sasaki sucks. Some want Soriano to move to closer, but with 10 wins at the
    break?

    Texas can't find themselves, but justify it by saying they'll go after Kerry Wood in a
    couple of months. The team's just praying that John Hart will get the clue and give
    Grady Fuson the reins. A-Rod trade talk won't go away, but I promise you, the Expos
    rumor isn't true. Fact is, Rodriguez doesn't want to quit baseball to go into ownership
    quite yet. Mark Teixeira has been a stud, and this team will start to make it's mark in
    2005.

    The NL is a different story, where the 2003 postseason doesn't make sense anymore.
    Philadelphia has an Atlanta-esque 15-game lead in the NL East, bragging they are the
    perfect team. The Braves are falling apart at the seams, and Leo Mazzone blames Greg
    Maddux's abscence for his inability to help any of his pitchers.

    Florida did manage to keep a lot of their players...on the injured list that is. Conine,
    Lowell, Pudge, Beckett, and Looper are all bandaged up. Tim Spooneybarger looks to be
    a solid closer though, and Jack McKeon is doing a good job limiting A.J. Burnett's
    workload. He'll be in a Red Sox uni in a matter of weeks. And...the Mets suck.

    Chicago has been wonderful in the NL Central, capturing 15 of their last 18 games.
    Richie Sexson has been the bat they needed, but their worried about money after the
    Wood extension just got inked. The state of Texas is up and arms, threatening to break
    away from the United States unless they give up Kerry. Fox covers the story, showing
    nothing but Wood's good-looking wife.

    Jeff Bagwell is thinking about retiring, as Houston has all but fallen out of the race.
    Morgan Ensberg has even been thrusted into the leadoff role, as Craig Biggio's .220
    average in April and May put them into a bad start. Brad Lidge got hurt, and Octavio
    Dotel is pitching three innings a game, order of Jimy Williams. He insists the increased
    workload is helping Dotel's arm, who no longer asks to get his chance to start. Soon,
    Will Carroll expects, he'll be asking the doctor if he can pitch again. Roy Oswalt's
    groin, captured by Japanese media (it was mistaken to be Ichiro's), is the talk of Houston.

    St. Louis is swarming to take the Wild Card spot, since they've finally found some
    pitching. John Thomson and Ted Lilly were good signs, and Chris Carpenter is the
    second-coming of Esteban Loaiza. The bullpen is a little bare, but the team promises to
    make amends by July 31. The Tino Martinez trade (Tampa) is looking great, since John
    Gall has thrusted himself into Rookie of the Year talks. Eli Marrero put up a 5HR, 7SB
    week between June 30-July 6, causing www.espn.com to overload with all the fantasy
    owners trying to claim him. Believe me (see April 2002), Marrero isn't a good bet.

    Milwaukee is fourth in the division, largely because of the additions of Hee Seop Choi
    and Juan Cruz. Trent Durrington is doing well at second base, and J.J. Hardy and Corey
    Hart are about to get their shots on the left side. The team couldn't get rid of Geoff
    Jenkins, but Bud Selig's idea to put Lenny Harris into right field wasn't a good idea. A
    Selig countdown clock is enthrusted in Miller Park, leading into a huge litigation suit.
    George Bush backs Selig, and Fidel Castro inquires about buying the team. Ya know, he
    did once play for the Yankees.

    San Diego is making a run at the NL West, only being threatened by the Diamondbacks.
    David Wells has done well in San Diego, but Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy are the biggest
    stories of the division. Sean Burroughs starts to find some power in that bat, and another
    Phil Nevin injury allows Xavier Nady to get some quality at-bats. Hoffman has become a
    great closer again, claiming he doesn't need stupid eyeglasses to make him effective (see
    Eric Gagne). And Barry Bonds? He's bitching about how the media doesn't respect him,
    and makes 1,724 threats to retire. Talk of him breaking Hank's record ends, as we all
    begin to see his real age.

    That's it, and if you haven't sent me your favorite baseball books, please do so. Oh yea,
    and go Bulls!

    WTNYNovember 10, 2003
    Notta Lotta
    By Bryan Smith

    As a favor, let me ask all my readers to send me their top five or ten favorite baseball books of all-time. Remember, my e-mail address is bryball@hotmail.com.

    I'm on vacation in Florida, and it's late, so there won't be much today. Although, I do find it important: my top-five free agents at each position, along with a few quick thoughts on where they'll end up...

    Catcher
    1. Pudge Rodriguez- Marlins
    2. Javy Lopez- Padres
    3. Benito Santiago- Cubs
    4. Brad Ausmus- Astros
    5. Brent Mayne

    First Base
    1. Rafeal Palmiero- Rangers
    2. Lee Seung-yeop- Dodgers?
    3. Eric Karros
    4. Scott Spiezio
    5. J.T. Snow

    Second Base
    1. Luis Castillo- Yankees
    2. Todd Walker
    3. Mark Grudzilanek- Cubs
    4. Robbie Alomar- White Sox
    5. Tadahito Iguchi- Mets

    Shortstop
    1. Miguel Tejada- Angels
    2. Rich Aurilia- Giants
    3. Kaz Matsui- Mariners
    4. Jose Hernandez
    5. Rey Ordonez

    Third Base
    1. Joe Randa
    2. Robin Ventura- Braves
    3. Vinny Castilla
    Nothing else here, honestly

    Left Field
    1. Shannon Stewart- Twins
    2. Raul Ibanez- Mariners
    3. Rondell White- Royals
    4. Matt Stairs- Cubs
    5. Brian Jordan

    Centerfield
    1. Mike Cameron- Mets
    2. Carl Everett- Devil Rays
    3. Kenny Lofton- A's

    Right Field
    1. Vladimir Guerrero- Orioles
    2. Gary Sheffield- Yankees
    3. Jose Guillen
    4. Jose Cruz Jr.- A's
    5. Reggie Sanders- Braves

    DH
    1. Juan Gonzalez
    2. Ellis Burks- Good buy

    Starters
    1. Bartolo Colon
    2. Kevin Millwood- Braves
    3. Andy Pettite- Yankees
    4. David Wells- Padres
    5. Sidney Ponson- White Sox
    6. Greg Maddux
    7. Kelvim Escobar- Blue Jays
    8. Miguel Batista
    9. John Thomson
    10. Jeff Suppan

    Relievers
    1. Keith Foulke- Mets
    2. Shigetoshi Hasegawa- Yanks
    3. Tom Gordon- White Sox
    4. LaTroy Hawkins- Cubs
    5. Eddie Guardado- Twins
    6. Tim Worrell- Cubs
    7. Ugueth Urbina
    8. Scott Sullivan
    9. Armando Benitez
    10. Arthur Rhodes- Devil Rays

    That's it...and thanks for the book suggestions!

    WTNYNovember 07, 2003
    More in Beantown
    By Bryan Smith

    Theo Epstein isn't going to have a trying offseason. The Manny Ramirez saga, along with the new managerial search, may be the two largest stories coming from Beantown. The 2004 team is basically already constructed, with a few minor details here and there. Instead, the Red Sox are likely coming up with a post-2004 plan, when much of their team reaches free agency. Expect a similar team in 2004, with a similar win total, but in 2005, all bets are off. In 2005, we'll start to see Theo's version.

    Theo's worries: Manny's mind, his kind of manager, replacing Todd Walker, and filling out the pitching staff. Not bad. All of the team's first and second-tier players will be back, as Walker and Mike Timlin serve as the biggest worries. Theo will probably strive harder to help that bullpen than he did last season, and he'll surely pretend to rustle some feathers. Such as offering Andy Pettite a big deal so that Steinbrenner is forced to beat it out, thus overpaying the southpaw. Another, will be feeling out interest for Manny.

    But for Manny, the AL's second best hitter, only one team will likely be calling. After reviewing every team, I've come to the conclusion that only the Los Angeles Dodgers could afford the best left fielder, save Bonds, in the Majors. But in doing so, the BoSox would be forced to take on Darren Dreifort's abysmal contract, that has three years and $36M waiting to be paid. Theo will find out quickly that it isn't worth it, and he'll have to accept Manny in left for a very long time. Pampering him becomes priority #2, because he could quickly become a cancer for that club.

    The managerial situation I'm going to stay out of. My gut tells me it will be Francona, simply because he was taught for the last year under the Oakland A's philosophy. He'll have to do that with Boston, just with a lot more personalities. Epstein was just in firing Little, simply because it Red Sox management is firmly backing their GM choice, they must allow him to choose his manager. We'll see how he fares.

    Todd Walker, despite postseason heroics, is and should leave next season. Yesterday, it was pointed out that Walker is a Type A free agent, giving Boston two more draft picks next June. I really like Jacobs and Kuhn's idea to replace him...Adam Kennedy. He is a very similar player, just with more brains and less power. Kennedy would fit well, but like Walker, demand a platoon partner. I thought Damian Jackson did an OK job, and I really like the idea of Eric Young. Eric has power and speed, and could also occasionally spell Damon in center.

    But it's said the Red Sox focus will be on pitching. But where? Pedro, Wakefield, and Lowe already have rotation spots next season. And I agree with Jacobs and Kuhn that it's ludicrous to not give Byung-Hyun Kim and Bronson Arroyo the fourth and fifth slots. Kim has #2 starter potential, and Arroyo would be much better than John Burkett. I also would go after Maels Rodriguez, the Cuban defector that is rumored to throw 100. If Maels is to be a reliever, allow him to set up Williamson. If not, send Arroyo to middle relief.

    It's the bullpen where Theo was most criticized in 2003, largely due to the early failures of the closer by committee philosophy. By the end of the season, I was impressed by the bullpen, and found it to be better than the Yankees and A's. Kim will be gone next season, although he's much better suited for a rotation slot. Williamson will be back, and after he pitched in the postseason, will be handed the closing role. Southpaws Alan Embree and Scott Sauerbeck are back too, giving a couple of very solid LOOGYs. I would re-sign Timlin, who was unhittable for most of October. Then, put Ramiro Mendoza into the back of the bullpen, but be aware of what he does. Mendoza is, by career numbers, very weak in April. Lower his workload in the first month, and you will see much better results. Then, get Arroyo, Fossum, Maels, or another middle relief player for the bullpen. So, my 2004 Red Sox team:

    C- Varitek
    1B- Millar
    2B- Kennedy/EYoung
    SS- Nomah
    3B- Mueller
    LF- Manny
    CF- Damon
    RF- Nixon
    DH- Ortiz

    1. Pedro
    2. Lowe
    3. Wakefield
    4. Kim
    5. Arroyo

    CL- Williamson
    SU- Timlin
    SU- Maels Rodriguez
    LH- Embree
    LH- Sauerbeck
    MR- Mendoza

    Not bad, but then the floodgates break open. After 2004, Variek, Nomar, Mueller, Nixon, Ortiz, Lowe, and Pedro are all free agents. The team will have to be very creative to create another winning team, but creativity seems to be Epstein's strong suit.

    Much of the decisions will be based on two players in Pawtucket, Kevin Youkilis and Kelly Shoppach. If both play well, then neither Varitek or Mueller should be retained the following season. If one struggles or is dealt, the team should retain their veteran. Jeremy Giambi, who needs to have a big 2004, may decide Ortiz's future. If Giambi comes up big next season, Epstein will be very hesitant to pay Ortiz significant money.

    But it's Nomar and Nixon that have no back-ups. Nomar should be a career Red Sox, as Boston's pride is in the bat of their Nomah. He's the second best shortstop in the game today, and expect those home runs to rise again next season. Nixon should be retained, simply because the Red Sox have no adequate replacement. This offseason is the year for RF, so next season's class will be a little weak. Trying to get Nixon to sign a four-year deal now (worth about $20-24M?) would be the best move.

    The pitching is the larger question mark. Pedro is an easy decision: Let him go. He's going to complain to every media source that will listen, but continue giving him the cold shoulder. Javier Vazquez will be a free agent in one season, and he is a much better option than Pedro. Vazquez will give you innings, strikeouts, and a lot less worry than Pedro will. Plus, Vazquez will cost about $12M per next offseason, compared to the 15-18 that Pedro will command.

    The decision on Lowe is yet to come. The team could have Fossum, Arroyo, and De La Rosa in a rotation in 2005, to go along with Wakefield and Vazquez. In that scenario, Lowe is history. So I would wait with Lowe as well, to see how the three youngsters pitch, and to discover who is the real Derek Lowe. Basically, this could be the Red Sox in 2005:

    C- Shoppach
    1B- Millar
    2B- Kennedy/Young (signed to 2-year deals)
    SS- Nomar
    3B- Youkilis
    LF- Manny
    CF- Damon
    RF- Nixon
    DH- Ortiz (screw lil' Giambi)

    1. Vazquez
    2. Wakefield
    3. Kim
    4. Arroyo
    5. De La Rosa

    So, it's going to be interesting at least. In coming weeks, I'll write an article about when I think the Yankees will start to go bad, because with their aging, and bloated contracts, it will happen at some point. So, watch out for some investigation on that in the future. Other than that, have a good weekend and see ya Monday...

    WTNYNovember 06, 2003
    Organizational Meeting: Red Sox
    By Bryan Smith

    Well folks, today you get off lucky, I'm not writing. For the Red Sox organizational meeting I have two bloggers answering questions. One is Ben Jacobs, who writes the fantastic Universal Baseball Blog Inc. He's a sportswriter for a Rochester newspaper, and his weekly fantasy football column always helps. The other is Jeff Kuhn, writer for The House that Dewey Built, a very Bostonian Blog. Both are worth checking out, of course, only after you read what they have to say here...

    1. Theo Epstein has done some different things during his short tenure, but nothing comes close to the Manny Ramirez saga. Epstein has admitted the Ramirez contract was terrible, and that the Red Sox have little interest in retaining him. Is Manny tradeable? If they can't trade him, will this move backfire and play a negative role in making Manny part of the team?

    Ben Jacobs- Manny is definitely tradeable. If Mo Vaughn and Mike Hampton got traded, then Manny can certainly get traded too. The real question is whether or not Manny is tradeable in a way that makes sense for the Red Sox. And I have a hard time seeing that. Basically, there are only two ways I could see the Red Sox trading Manny.

    The first is if some team is willing to take Manny while not giving the Red Sox much in return if the Red Sox will eat a couple million dollars per year on Manny contract. I could see Epstein doing that to save most of the money Manny is owed, but I don't know why any team would want to do that. If they weren't willing to claim him and pay the entire contract, they probably aren't willing to trade for him and pay 90-percent of his contract.

    The second way is if the Red Sox trade him for another team's bad contract. However, the only way I think Epstein would do that is if the other team's bad contract is much shorter, like two or three years instead of Manny's five years. I'm not sure what teams would be interested in doing that and I'm really not sure if the Red Sox have any interest in doing that. I think Epstein already said they're not going to take on another bad contract.

    Also, the Red Sox are not going to pay a large portion of Manny's contract just to get rid of him. He is, after all, still a premier hitter. In fact, in my opinion, he's the third-best player in the majors when you only consider offensive contributions. The Rockies paid for Hampton not to pitch for them anymore because Hampton was terrible in Colorado. The Red Sox are not going to pay for Manny to be an All-Star somewhere else.

    If Manny is still with Boston in 2004, and I think that's the most likely scenario, I don't foresee any problems. If anything, it may help the situation. Manny is a bit of a head case and he's very immature. He doesn't really want to be in Boston, but he signed a big contract so he's not really in a position to say he won't play there. He's put up excellent numbers in each of his first three years with the team despite frequent reports of unhappiness. He and his agent reportedly even initiated the process of Manny being placed on waivers when they said Manny wanted to play in New York. Obviously, the Red Sox can't trade Manny to the Yankees, so the Red Sox gave the Yankees the one possible option to acquire Manny. That the Yankees didn't go for it is not something Manny can hold against the Red Sox. Furthermore, if he complains during this season that he wants to play elsewhere, the Red Sox can tell him to be quiet because nobody else wants him at his salary. If he really wants to go, he can make the monetary concessions, not them. There's even a chance, just a small one though, that Ramirez will be motivated by 29 teams saying that he is not worth what he's being paid. So, I think Manny will be fine in Boston even after this.

    Jeff Kuhn- I think Manny is tradable simply because he might be the best right handed hitter in baseball. Everyone who followed the saga knows that there is 5 years/$100 million left on the deal, and Manny makes $20 million this year. That isn't entirely accurate. $20 million of his deal is deferred with very little interest, which makes Manny's deal more palatable then ARod's or Giambi's. I honestly think he wasn't claimed because GM's think Theo is desperate to dump him, and they think they can talk him into paying some of the contract and taking a bad contract. I can see Jim Duquette saying give me Manny and $5 million a year and I guess I can part with Tom Glavine. I just hope if that happens, then Theo has the good sense to hang up. Manny isn't a vocal leader, and he seems to only care about hitting a baseball. I don't see this hurting the clubhouse any. If he sticks around, he'll be the meat in a Ortiz/Millar hugwich soon enough.

    2. Rumors were flying that if someone claimed Ramirez, the Rangers would send Alex Rodriguez to the Red Sox for a package containing Nomar Garciaparra. In New England, "Nomah" is everyone's favorite player. Could Epstein possibly trade Garciaparra or let him walk; is Nomar supposed to be a career Red Sox?

    BJ- New England loves Nomar with a passion and would definitely be very upset if he does not finish his career with the Red Sox. However, Epstein doesn't really seem to care what New England thinks, which is a good thing for the Red Sox. Most fans are pretty irrational most of the time, and you definitely don't want to make your decisions based solely on what they think is best.

    That doesn't mean I think the Red Sox should definitely get rid of Nomar, however. If he's willing to sign a reasonable contract extension (maybe four years at around $12 million per year), I would certainly like to keep him in Boston. He's probably never going to be the hitter he was before hurting his wrist, but he's still one of the best shortstops in baseball. However, if the Red Sox get the sense that Nomar doesn't really want to sign an extension and he would rather go play in California in 2005, I wouldn't be afraid to make a bold move.

    I would consider trading Nomar for prospects and trying to sign Miguel Tejada. Tejada didn't deserve to win the MVP award in 2002, but he is an excellent player. He's probably better than Nomar defensively, and he's not that much worse offensively. The problem with that plan is that if you don't get Tejada, your next option is to sign Rich Aurilia, who would be a significant downgrade from Nomar.

    Also, along the same lines as trading Nomar and signing Tejada, I would seriously consider trading Johnny Damon for prospects and trying to sign Mike Cameron. Cameron is probably a little bit better than Damon defensively and he could at least match Damon's numbers offensively if he was playing half of his games in Fenway rather than SafeCo. Unfortunately, this plan has the same problem as the Nomar plan. If you miss out on Cameron, your next option is Kenny Lofton, who would be a significant downgrade from Damon.

    JKThe days of "career" players are all but over, with a nod to Biggio, Larkin, Bagwell, and Frank Thomas. I think there would have been some serious backlash if Nomar was traded for a guy that is perceived as having destroyed baseball's financial structure. I think eventually, Nomar will be allowed to walk, and if the Angels, Padres, Astros or Dodgers don't bite, the Sox will resign him. The Astros will be the wild card because of the Mia factor.

    3. What does a good GM do with Pedro? He is probably the best "first 100 pitches" pitcher I've ever seen pitch, but he really can't go beyond that these days. He is eating 17.5 million next season, and will be bickering the whole time about a contract extension. Really, what do you do with Pedro?

    BJ- The Pedro Martinez decision is the most cut-and-dry decision the team has, in my opinion. You keep him on the team to pitch for 2004, you offer him arbitration at the end of the season and you collect draft picks when another team signs him.

    Basically, you can't trade Pedro because he has a big contract with just one year left on it and you'll never get equal value for that deal. So, you have to keep him for next season and hope that he can stay healthy enough to make his 29 or 30 starts and give you around 180-190 innings with a very good ERA. If he does that, then the $17.5 million is being spent reasonably well.

    However, under no circumstances do you offer Pedro a contract extension, unless it's a short and relatively cheap one that he will turn down anyway. Pedro is a very proud man and he's going to want a long contract worth a lot of money. He'll clamor about respect and how a team should be willing to give him a long contract because he's a great pitcher and they don't want him pitching against them. There are certain truths about Pedro, however.

    First, he's very prone to injury. He hasn't made more than 30 starts in a season since 1998. Second, the Red Sox have babied Pedro a lot in recent years. That may be part of the reason he hasn't started more than 30 games, but it was also supposed to be the reason he'd be a healthy and dominant pitcher in the post-season. The problem is, that didn't happen.

    After being coddled all season long, Pedro had a 4.76 ERA in four playoff starts. Even if you had taken him out after seven innings in game seven against the Yankees (as many people thought Grady Little should have), his post-season ERA would have been 3.86. That's just not good enough for somebody who gets paid as much as he does and gets babied as much as he does and gets free reign to say and do anything as much as he does.

    If you can't count on Pedro to give you 30 starts (and you certainly can't count on him for more than 30 starts) and you can't count on Pedro to be absolutely amazing in the playoffs, then why would you give him a ton of money and a long contract? He's one of the greatest pitchers of all time, but he'll be 33 after the 2004 season and he'll be a big, big risk.

    JK- I think you make him an offer in the neighborhood of 4 years/$60-65 million. If he takes it, pray that his arm stays on his body. If he doesn't, well you pray Steinbrenner doesn't open his purse. The thought of Pedro in a Yankee uniform sends a chill down my spine.

    4. Should Grady Little have been fired? Who should manage the 2004 Red Sox and why?

    BJ- Yes, Grady Little should have been fired, but not because of what happened in game seven of the ALCS. Grady just didn't fit in with what the Red Sox front office is trying to do. From what I understand, he almost completely ignored anything that had to do with statistics. It's not just that he wasn't the progressive coach they wanted, it's also that he bordered on insubordination with his complete and utter disdain for anything statistical or new.

    As for who the new manager should be, I think it should come from the group of Glenn Hoffman, Bud Black and Terry Francona. I don't really know enough about each person specifically, but they all seem to fit the profile that the Red Sox are looking for and I trust Epstein et al to pick the best of the three.

    The reason I think one of them should be hired instead of a retread "experienced" manager like Mike Hargrove or Davey Johnson is that the Red Sox are trying to be forward-thinking in the way they run things and they need an open-minded, forward-thinking manager on the bench. They don't need somebody sitting on the bench who will say, "I've always done things this way and I ain't changing for some 29-year-old whiz kid."

    Boston has people in place who are capable of making something very special happen in the near future. Now, they need to hire somebody who can help them -- who can work with them -- to make that happen. Grady was frequently working against them, or just ignoring them all together.

    JK- Grady Little should have been fired before this season. He did a better job in 2003 then he did in 2002, but his bullpen managing was terrible. Two stories will always piss me off about that whole thing. One was Grady not wanting to bring Williamson in game 7 because Scotty had a canker sore. Grady thought he was too stressed. Another was in Baltimore when Lowe had given up some pretty sharply hit line drives. Pitching coach Dave Wallace picked up the phone to call for someone (Mike Timlin I think), and Grady put his hand on the phone and said "We'll see how he does". Lowe gave up 5 runs in that inning, and the Sox lost 11-2.

    A guy I've heard some good thing about is Joe Maddon, the Angels bench coach. He public said that he wants the job, and feels that statistical analysis is important in this day. I think the field manager is pretty unimportant as long as they execute the organization's plan, something Glenn Hoffman, Bud Black, and Maddon have said they would do. It was also something that Grady Little refused to do. If I was to rank them, I would say Maddon, Hoffman, Black, then Francona.

    5. Todd Walker was the hero of this postseason, bailing out the team on numerous occasions. But, he really is a very platoonable player, susceptible to good left-handed pitching. Do you re-sign Walker, or save the money for pitching? Would you go with Bill Mueller at second and Youkilis at third? Who plays second?

    BJ- Walker is a pretty good hitter for a second baseman, but he's also an average fielder at best. Also, as you said, he's really only a good hitter against righties, so it's probably not a good idea to give him the $3.5-4 million he'll probably want. Especially since there is a cheaper -- and probably better -- version of him that will probably be available this off-season.

    It sounds like the Angels are going to non-tender Adam Kennedy, who is a better defensive player than Walker and who hits righties about as well as Walker does. Kennedy made $2.27 million in 2003 and I'd guess that he'd be willing to sign for about that for 2004.

    Whether you re-sign Walker or sign Kennedy, you need to go out and find that person a platoon partner. Lou Merloni's a fan favorite, but he's never been all that good against lefties and this year he stunk against them while pounding righties. The best solution would be Placido Polanco, who has had an OPS of at least .880 against lefties three of the last four years (it was .790 in 2001). However, I don't know exactly what his situation is with Philadelphia, so he may not be available. Mark Grudzielanek would be another option, although he's been more inconsistent against lefties and he would have to take on heck of a pay cut over what he made in 2003.

    You mentioned Kevin Youkilis, and he presents another intriguing possible option. The Red Sox could use the switch-hitting Bill Mueller at third and the left-handed hitting Adam Kennedy at second against righties and use the right-handed hitting Youkilis at third and Mueller at second against lefties. This would allow Boston to ease Youkilis into the majors, which would be a good thing because he's probably not ready to be there full-time yet. The nice thing about Youkilis is that even if he's not hitting, he probably won't be a complete drain on the offense because he takes a lot of walks.

    There is one other thing I'd like to mention about Youkilis. He got a lot of press this season because he was mentioned in Moneyball and he had a .487 OBP at Portland and he got on base something like 70 games in a row at one point. If all that has caused his value to climb to the point where teams are itching to trade for him, then I'd trade him. I think he'll be a fine major leaguer, but it's not a sure thing and this could very well be the high-water mark for his value. If you can get real talent in return for him right now, I think it would be a good idea.

    JK- Walker did the Red Sox a huge favor from a business stand point. He played well enough to be a type A free agent, and he did his best bashing in October, so it is fresh in other GM's minds. It's a no-brainer to offer Walker arbitration. If he accepts, good, we have a steady player at second, if he doesn't then we get two draft picks. If Walker doesn't resign, then my kind of pet project is Mark Bellhorn. Not only does he fit the organizational profile (high OB%, high slug) he plays a decent second base, he's a switch hitter, he's gonna be cheap because he was jerked around by Dusty Baker and buried by Clint Hurdle. Youkilis needs some seasoning at AAA before coming up to the big club. Mueller at second and Youk at third should be last resort.

    6. The Red Sox second-tier players (Varitek, Ortiz, Mueller, Nixon) are all free agents after 2004 (along with Nomar and Pedro). All the second-tier guys are leaders (Varitek, Mueller), or Boston favorites (Ortiz, Nixon). Who gets re-signed, and why?

    BJ- This is, to me, the toughest question facing the Red Sox. Of the four guys you mentioned, Mueller's the easiest because he doesn't really have the option of becoming a free agent after the 2004 season. The Red Sox have a $2.1 million option on him for 2005 (with a $0.3 million buyout) and I think they'll exercise it unless he's completely terrible in 2004.

    The other three are all much tougher decisions, and you didn't mention Derek Lowe, who will also be a free agent after 2004 and also presents a difficult decision. It's really hard to say what the Red Sox should do with all of these players, so I'll try and go player by player and say as much as I can about the situation.

    Jason Varitek will make $6.7 million in 2004. He will turn 33 very early in the 2005 season and the Red Sox have a catcher in the minor leagues named Kelly Shoppach who should be ready for the majors in 2005. So, I'd try to re-sign Varitek next off-season, but if he asks for a deal longer than three seasons and for more than about $6 million per season, I'd say thanks but no thanks. Varitek gets a ton of credit for being a wonderful handler of the pitching staff and a bulldog who goes all out and motivates the team and really helps out on defense, but that's all stuff that's pretty hard to quantify. The numbers seem to indicate that he's a bit overrated on defense. His bat is certainly worth keeping if he hits like he did in 2003 or like he was before the injury in 2001, but it's not a good thing if he hits like he did in 2002 or 2000. Plus, catchers tend to start falling apart pretty quickly right around age 33. Varitek's important to the Red Sox, but not so important that they need to break the bank for him.

    Trot Nixon is another guy that everybody loves to have around. He'll turn 30 on the same day Varitek turns 32 next spring and he has not ever shown any ability whatsoever to hit left-handed pitching. He made $4 million this season and will likely be due a significant raise in arbitration. I like Trot and I'd love to see him signed to an extension because he can absolutely demolish right-handed pitching, but he's not worth more than $6 or 7 million per year, if that much, in my opinion. I think the Red Sox should try to sign him to a four-year deal worth about $25 million. That way they get his age 30-33 seasons and they avoid arbitration this year.

    Regardless of whether they keep Nixon past 2004, they're going to need to find him a real platoon partner for 2004. Gabe Kapler's a fine bit player, but when all you're looking for is somebody who can play right field and hit lefties, you can do better. Reggie Sanders and Brian Jordan would both be fine options if you could convince them to take a small salary and a part-time role, but I doubt that's a possibility. Eduardo Perez had a 1.126 OPS against lefties this year and a .997 OPS against lefties last year and he would probably be a fine option to platoon with Nixon. In fact, a Nixon/Perez platoon might provide almost as much offense as Manny Ramirez does.

    David Ortiz was an absolute bargain this season because he made $1.25 million dollars. He's already said that he'd like a contract extension before next season. I'd probably be willing to give him a four-year deal for around $20 million. He'll turn 28 in a couple weeks, which means the entire contract would pretty much be during his prime, and there's no reason to think he can't perform like he did this year if he stays healthy. He hasn't been very good against lefties the past two years, but he showed some ability to hit them before that so he might not need a strict platoon.

    Derek Lowe is 30 years old and will make $5 million in 2004. He had a great season in 2002 and an average season in 2003. I think his 2004 season will be somewhere in between and I'd probably be willing to give him three more years (after 2004) for around $21 million.

    Another question facing the Red Sox is what to do with Kevin Millar. He's 32 years old and not very well conditioned and he looks like a prime candidate to decline next year (or at least not improve). Millar posted some of the best counting stats of his career this year, but he also posted some of the worst rate stats of his career. If the Red Sox keep him around for 2004, he probably shouldn't play 148 games again. I'd limit him to around 120 games at most and give Jeremy Giambi (who should be willing to sign for less than the $2 million he got last year) at least 80 games between first base, designated hitter and left field. Giambi was probably injured for a lot of this season and should be a better hitter next season. Ortiz probably shouldn't play against lefties that often (Giambi doesn't have as severe a split) and Manny will also need some days off.

    Another option would be to trade Millar for whatever you can get and make Giambi and Ortiz your primary first baseman and DH. You could then sign somebody who hits lefties well (like Eric Karros or Julio Franco) to give those two the occasional day off. The reason I'd consider trading Millar for very little is that he has a $3.5 million option for 2005 that is guaranteed if he gets 800 plate appearance between 2003 and 2004. Since he got 618 PAs in 2003, it's a virtual lock that his option would become guaranteed if he returns in 2004. I don't mind having Millar around for 2004, but I don't really want him around in 2005.

    Yet another option would be to trade away both Millar and Ortiz and trade for Derrek Lee and make Giambi the DH. You might even be able to swing a deal with Florida for Lee that includes Ortiz.

    JK- Nice little mess Dan Duquette left the Sox, eh? Mueller will be 34, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk. I think Nixon and Ortiz get locked up for a few years this offseason, since they will go to arbitration anyway. Varitek is an interesting case because he will be 34, and a catcher. Carlton Fisk and Benito Santiago are the only two catchers I know of that have played more then one season at a high level after the age of 34. Not only that, the Sox's best prospect is catcher Kelly Shoppach. I think 'Tek gets a extension offer this offseason for a few seasons, and then an offer to coach in the system. More likely is that Varitek is somewhere else in 2005. Also, Williamson, Kim, and Lowe will be free agents after 2004 too. It's a big mess.

    7. I thought that by the end of the season, Theo had built himself a pretty good bullpen. Does Mike Timlin need to be re-signed after a dominating postseason? Is Scott Williamson ready to close big games? Will Alan Embree bounce back? And, most importantly, what role does Byung-Hyun Kim play next season?

    BJ- I feel pretty good about Boston's bullpen for 2004. I think Mike Timlin should be brought back if he's willing to sign for around $2.5 million and I think Williamson is perfectly capable of handling the closer's role. He has performed well as the closer in Cincinnati and, from what I understand, he had a lot of issues at the end of the season that contributed to his poor performance.

    What I'd really like is to see the Red Sox start using the closer's role the way Oakland does. I'd give Williamson the role this season and let him rack up 35-40 saves. I believe he'll be eligible for free agency after 2004 and all those saves would probably make him a Class A (or Type I or whatever it is) free agent, which means the Red Sox would get nice draft picks when another team signs him in the 2004 off-season. Then, the Red Sox can just go get somebody else to be their closer (maybe even somebody they already have like Brandon Lyon or Casey Fossum).

    As for Embree, I think he'll be fine next year. It's silly to think he'll ever have as good a season as he had in 2002, but I don't see any reason why he can't give the Red Sox 60 innings with an ERA in the mid-3.00's.

    Byung-Hyun Kim should, in my opinion, be a starter next season. I think Kim is a great reliever, even in 2003 when people were treating him like the worst closer in the history of baseball, but there are three compelling reasons to move him into the starting rotation.

    First, weird things seem to happen when he's in the bullpen. I don't know why and I don't know that it would continue to happen, but there always seem to be incidents when Kim is in the bullpen. Plus, the worst incidents seem to happen against the New York Yankees, who just so happen to be Boston's biggest rivals. There's no reason to test this situation when there's a perfectly viable alternative.

    Second, he has more value as a starter. Kim posted a 3.38 ERA in 72 innings as a starter this season, which is pretty good. He did only average six innings per start and his strikeout rates were significantly lower as a starter than as a reliever, but I think he's capable of being a very nice starting pitcher. If he could give the Red Sox 190 innings (30 starts at six and one-third innings per start) with an ERA around 3.25 to 3.50, he would be one of the best fourth starters in the majors, if not the best.

    Third, Kim wants to be a starter. If the Red Sox give him a shot at starting for an entire season, he may be more inclined to stay with the team when he becomes a free agent (which I think is also after the 2004 season. The 2004 off-season is going to be a very busy one).

    JK- Mike Timlin is one of my favorite Sox from 2003. The fan in me would love to see him back. However, I'm not sure how smart it would be to sign a 38 year old middle reliever who might ask for big money. His case is actually much like Walker's, in that he is also a Type A. I would love to get Timlin back for similar money.

    As for Williamson and Embree, they will be fine. Williamson is a guy that I would give the ball to in any situation. The same with Embree. I have nothing but confidence in those two for the back of the bullpen. Kim needs to be given a role, and kept there, no matter what. When he came to the Sox, he started and pitched well. Grady got nervous though and started him in the bullpen between starts and I think it messed with his arm some. Then you make him the closer and pitch him in five straight games? I would like Kim to be in the rotation next year. He has the ability to be the 2nd starter on a lot of teams.

    8. Pedro and Tim Wakefield are givens next season. The team will also bring back Derek Lowe, another given. Should Jeff Suppan get brought back? Should prospects Bronson Arroyo (IL Pitcher of the Year) or Jorge De La Rosa get shots? Does Casey Fossum deserve another look? What players should Epstein bring in to fill the rotation?

    BJ- As you said, Pedro, Wakefield and Lowe are givens. That leaves two spots available. My hope is that those two spots will be filled by Kim and Bronson Arroyo. I talked about Kim in the previous question, so I'll just talk about Arroyo here.

    For some reason, he only pitched 17.1 innings for the Red Sox this season, but he only gave up 10 hits and he struck out 14 batters. Also, as you said, he was the IL Pitcher of the Year after posting a 3.43 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 23 walks in 149.2 innings for Pawtucket. Arroyo will be 27 when the 2004 season starts and his strikeout and walk rates have improved each of the last two seasons. In 2001, Arroyo had 88 strikeouts and 49 walks in 154.2 innings between Pittsburgh and AAA. In 2002, he had 138 strikeouts and 43 walks in 170 innings between Pittsburgh and AAA. In 2003, he had 169 strikeouts and 27 walks in 167 innings between Boston and AAA.

    It's time to see what Arroyo can do as a full-time starter. His numbers are impressive and the few times I've seen him pitch his stuff has looked good. At worst, I think he'd be a serviceable fifth starter just like John Burkett was. At best, I think he could put up numbers worthy of being a second or third starter on most teams.

    I do think Casey Fossum deserves another chance and he'll probably get a long, hard look in spring training. It seems unlikely to me that the Red Sox will just hand out the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation this winter. There will probably be a competition of sorts in spring training and I'm sure Fossum will be involved in that competition. I think Fossum has good enough stuff to be a starter, but I'm not sure if he has the durability to be a starter. He has a very slight build (he's listed at 6-1, 165 pounds, but he may not be even that heavy) and he's been somewhat injury-prone during his career. I think he might be more valuable as a reliever and, as I mentioned earlier, he could eventually be an option for the Red Sox at closer.

    Jorge De La Rosa put up some very impressive numbers in AA, but it seems to me that he could use a full season in Pawtucket before he gets a job in Boston. He's only 22 years old, so I don't see any reason to rush him to the big leagues before he's definitely ready.

    JK- I'd take a flyer on Arroyo in the rotation coming out of camp, with Fossum, who has one more option year, in Pawtucket to get stronger. Unfortunately, I think Fossum might be better suited for relief. I think DLR starts the year in Pawtucket too, and I fully expect the Red Sox to take the Earl Weaver approach to breaking him in. One year in long relief, and build him up until he is winning 20 in the bigs. One interesting pitcher to look at for the rotation is Jose Jimenez. He was terrible in Colorado this year, but he is an extreme groundball pitcher. The less balls hit in the outfield in Fenway the better. One forgotten fact about Jimenez is that he threw a no hitter as a rookie for the Cardinals. I think realistically, Colon/Millwood/Pettitte is a pipedream. Ponson has a torn labrum, and there is no way I would sign him to more then a one year deal.

    9. Give a step-by-step offseason to-do list for Theo Epstein, as well as your predicted/desired 2004 Red Sox lineup.

    BJ- 1. Hire a new manager as quickly as possible. Determine who the best candidate is as soon as you can and give him the job immediately. The players currently on the team and the free agents who might consider coming to the team will want to know who they will be playing for. Don't make them wait too long.
    2. Decide quickly whether or not you want to trade Manny Ramirez. If you can't find a deal that really helps you by the end of November, then call it quits and pencil Manny into the 2004 lineup.
    3. Talk to Nomar and his agent and see what their thoughts are on a possible contract extension. If you can come to an agreement this off-season, that would be great. If not, start talking to Miguel Tejada and see what it would take to get him in a Boston uniform. At the same time, start talking to other GMs to see what kind of interest there is in Nomar.
    4. Talk to Mike Cameron and see what it would take to get him in a Boston uniform. At the same time, start talking to other GMs to see what kind of interest there is in Johnny Damon.
    5. Re-sign Mike Timlin (this should actually probably be done pretty quickly because Timlin has made it clear that he wants to return to Boston).
    6. Develop a plan for the rest of the potential 2004 free agents and start acting on that plan. Consider giving Nixon, Ortiz and Lowe extensions before the 2004 season. Wait until after the 2004 season to extend Varitek unless he's willing to sign for a reasonable amount this off-season and you don't think he'd be willing to sign for that amount next off-season. See if you can get anything in a trade for Millar.
    7. Sign Adam Kennedy as soon as he gets non-tendered by the Angels.
    8. Find platoon partners for Kennedy and Nixon.

    9. Here's my desired 2004 lineup:
    Against right-handers:
    RF Trot Nixon - L
    3B Bill Mueller - S
    LF Manny Ramirez - R
    DH David Ortiz - L
    SS Miguel Tejada - R
    CF Mike Cameron - R
    C Jason Varitek - S
    1B Kevin Millar - R
    2B Adam Kennedy - L

    Against left-handers:
    3B Bill Mueller - S
    SS Miguel Tejada - R
    LF Manny Ramirez - R
    CF Mike Cameron - R
    DH David Ortiz - L
    RF Eduardo Perez - R
    C Jason Varitek - S
    1B Kevin Millar - R
    2B Placido Polanco - R
    Bench: Perez, Polanco, Jeremy Giambi, Doug Mirabelli, Damian Jackson

    Rotation:
    Pedro Martinez
    Derek Lowe
    Tim Wakefield
    Byung-Hyun Kim
    Bronson Arroyo

    Bullpen: Scott Williamson, Mike Timlin, Alan Embree, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Ramiro Mendoza


    JK- 1. Hire a manager
    2. Get someone who can hit lefties to platoon with Nixon and spell Ramirez. Jose Cruz and Reggie Sanders would probably be the best fit if they don't mind being platooned.
    3. Try to get the bullpen set up before the season. Signing a guy like Timlin, or plugging Jimenez in the bullpen would save guys like Sauerbeck from pitching into their opponent's strengths.
    4. Get a decent glove for second base. Even if you resign Walker, Damian Jackson wasn't much better at 2b. Someone along the lines of a Tony Graffinino, or David Eckstein. Adam Kennedy would also be a good option if you don't resign Walker and Bellhorn makes you nervous.
    5. Figure out the starting rotation. Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield are penciled in. Now decide whether Kim and Arroyo are what you want. If not, try and get Maddux at short money. Don't break the bank on Colon or Millwood. Make some "show-me" bids on Pettitte to try and push the Yankees up to crazy heights.
    6. Decide what to do at catcher. If you want Shoppach up for 2004, then let Mirabelli go. If you want to extend Varitek, do it before Javy Lopez signs, because he will set the market for Varitek.
    7. Try and convince Allard Baird or Ed Wade that Ramiro Mendoza is one step away from being lights out again. Then laugh as he disappears off the payroll.

    Desired line up vs. RHP
    CF - Damon
    RF - Nixon
    LF - Ramirez
    SS - Garciaparra
    DH - Ortiz
    1B - Millar
    3B - Mueller
    C - Varitek
    2B - Kennedy

    Desired line up vs. LHP
    CF - Damon
    3b - Mueller
    LF - Ramirez
    SS - Garciaparra
    1B - Millar
    RF - Sanders
    2b - Bellhorn
    DH - Varitek
    C - Shoppach

    Rotation:
    Pedro Martinez
    Derek Lowe
    Tim Wakefield
    Byung-Hyun Kim
    Bronson Arroyo

    Bullpen
    Jorge de la Rosa
    Allan Embree
    Mike Timlin
    Scott Sauerbeck
    Jose Jimenez
    Scott Williamson

    I'd like to thank Ben and Jeff, and remember you'll get my answers tomorrow, so stay tuned for that.

    WTNYNovember 05, 2003
    Everything Else
    By Bryan Smith

    Today, I'm gonna break from the organizational meetings and address some of the issues I've neglected recently. Let me thank you for reading this, as I've just had my best week ever. I'm glad this site is becoming a daily read for some of you, and I always appreciate e-mails. Tomorrow the Red Sox meeting will be up, so definitely come back for that.

    Moving on to my thoughts...

    First, the Phillies have traded for Billy Wagner. Obviously, this deal has two sides. For Philadelphia, it's a great deal (more on that in a minute). But for the Astros, I'm going to have to agree with Will Carroll, "Nice deal, but only if they get Pettite. Otherwise, the Cubs OWN this division the next two years." The Astros need to spend the eight million they just shed, and they need to spend it in the rotation. A fivesome of Oswalt, Miller, Redding, Robertson, and Duckworth is nice, but it could be better. Throw in Andy Pettite, boot out Duckworth, and this is a contending team.

    For the Phillies, this is a sensational deal. Billy Wagner has been in the top ten in Baseball Prospectus' reliever reports for two years, and in all but one since 1998. He was third this season, behind Game Over Gagne and new teammate Rheal Cormier. Assuming they re-up Terry Adams, this is a very good bullpen. Without Duckworth, the rotation isn't as set in stone. Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, and Brett Myers are locks. Prospect Ryan Madson and Amaury Telemaco may fill it out, but Ed Wade says the team has a little flexibiliy to add another starter. No matter what, the Phillies are the 2004 NL East favorite.

    And just to clarify, it will be Octavio Dotel closing games in 2004, and closing them well. Gagne is the best closer in the NL, Wagner is second. It is very possible that next season Dotel will surpass Smoltz and become the best. Of course, that's assuming Jimy Williams doesn't throw him two innings every night. Taylor Buchholz, the main prospect in the deal, will definitely be in the Astro top five. He'll likely be able to debut in 2005, allowing the Astros to then trade/non-tender Tim Redding. But as I said, we'll have to address this down the road...

    Speaking of unaddressable subjects, the Chicago White Sox named Ozzie Guillen their manager on Monday, giving him the slight edge over Cito Gaston. I liked a certain Baseball Primer post that mentioned the ironies between Guillen and Tony Pena a year ago. Guillen will push the White Sox, demanding hustle, and improving the clubhouse. He likely learned a lot in Florida, possibly as much as Gaston knows as a 2-time champion.

    This move ensures that Robbie Alomar will be back, as he is said to speak with Ozzie twice a month. They are very good friends, and the White Sox were interested in retaining him before anyway. This will also help Jose Valentin's chances in returning, although I think that would be the completely wrong direction to take. Aaron Miles and Tony Graffanino might not be such a sexy duo, but I guarantee their level of performance would rival the Alomar and Valentin combo.

    A lot of Ken Williams decision lied in the fact that Guillen makes the White Sox a more attractive option to free agents. He will have an attitude that is unlike many other managers, and Williams is gambling that it makes Chicago's south side a better choice. Maybe, Williams thinks, this will entice Bartolo Colon to accept his offer. Colon has been tabbed by me as the first dumbass of the hot stove league, rejecting a three-year, thirty-six million dollar deal. Believe me, he won't get that chance anywhere else. My conspiracy theory is he wants more years, because he may get injured during the course of the deal.

    While Colon decided to not stay in Chicago, Frank Thomas didn't. He accepted six million dollars for this season, but will actually be on the hook for three more years, at twenty-four million. This was a good decision for Thomas, but it ensures the White Sox must trade either Carlos Lee or Paul Konerko. And Konerko's contract is pretty unmoveable, meaning Lee, the team's second best hitter, is likely gone. Without Colon and without Lee, this is a third place club...

    One left fielder I have neglected to mention in the past week is Manny Ramirez, and the waive heard 'round the world. Theo Epstein is making his prescence known, basically calling Dan Duquette a retard out loud. It was a decent option, but a pretty crazy idea. There was about a 1% chance that someone would claim him, and now the Manny controversey will follow him all of next year.

    I agreed with Ben Jacobs, who in a fantastic post, detailed why the Devil Rays should have bit. They want Gary Sheffield, who will likely turn down any option. But in Ramirez, they would have landed the American League's best hitter, with an already-negotiated contract. That would give them very little other options the rest of the winter, but make them a much better team. This club, this lineup, is actually pretty good:

    1. Julio Lugo- SS
    2. Carl Crawford- LF
    3. Manny Ramirez- DH
    4. Aubrey Huff- RF
    5. Rocco Baldelli- CF
    6. Pete LaForest- 1B
    7. Toby Hall- C
    8. cheap 3B pick-up
    9. Antonio Perez- 2B

    Not bad at all. If the Red Sox are really intent on dealing Manny, the Dodgers are the only place to look. If the BoSox were to take on the Darren Dreifort deal, which wouldn't hurt, the teams could do it. Basically, LA throws Dreifort, Joel Hanrahan, and a bag of balls for Ramirez. It would give the Red Sox a good prospect in Hanrahan, lots of potential in Dreifort, and some more money to spend. More on this in the BoSox offseason meeting tomorrow...

    The Red Sox managerial search will be a strange one, although I believe Bud Black should ultimately end up with the job. Ex-Red Sox manager Grady Little will interview for the Baltimore job this week, in which he stands zero chance of getting it. Basically, it will be a battle between Lee Mazzilli, Yankees 3rd base coach, and Eddie Murray, their first interview. The Mariners GM quest is still yet to end, and I really do believe they were just waiting for Cashman. Now, it's really down to business...

    I really like Cashman's decision to fire Rick Down and tab Don Mattingly as coach of the Yankees. In my Yankee opinions, I said, "Sign Don Mattingly to be hitting coach, David Cone to be pitching coach, and Luis Sojo for 1st base." Well, Mattingly and Sojo are now Yanks, and Mel Stottlemyre is yet to announce he won't return. But when he does, let's hope Cone gets his chance. And when Mazzilli leaves 3rd base? Something tells me it won't be Bucky Dent...

    And welcome back Edgar Martinez, or did we ever think you were gone? Come back tomorrow for the Red Sox.

    WTNYNovember 04, 2003
    Organizational Meeting: Oakland A's
    By Bryan Smith

    Lots of news today, including the Billy Wagner deal and Ozzie Guillen managerial hiring. Tomorrow is going to have to be a notes column, with all those things inserted. But today, I was lucky enough for the guys over at Elephants in Oakland to answer a few questions. And oh yeah, I did the same. Enjoy...

    1) Billy Beane is highly touted across the Internet as a great GM, but contracts like Terrence Long, Jermaine Dye, and even Ramon Hernandez really have hurt this team. I mean, why extend Scott Hatteberg's contract, and why couldn't he give Jason Giambi a stupid no-trade clause? Do you agree that Beane lets his ego into his decisions? Isn't it ironic the team that preaches OBP finished 10th in their statistic, only .04 ahead of the Baltimore Orioles?

    Elephants in Oakland- It's true that Billy Beane seems to fall into the same trap as most GM's when it comes to finalizing a multi-year contract with a player. And let's make that clear, we're talking position players. With pitchers, Billy Beane is reaping huge benefits in the long term deals completed involving the Big Three - Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. But let's also take the distinction a bit further, Billy has also not tied himself up into several other bad long term contracts; Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Jason Isringhausen and Ray Durham all left via free agency. All have been hurt or not played up to expected levels since leaving the A's. Crystal ball stuff? No. But the A's saved themselves about $100 million over the market value on top of what those players received in the free agency market.

    The Scott Hatteberg contract was thought by most to be a sign and deal contract. After all, what is to become of Erubiel Durazo? What about Minor League Player of the Year Graham Koonce, who looks to be a late blooming version of Jeff Bagwell (with a lower batting average)? Koonce's line so far - .654/.700/1.115. Don't look now, the A's have Don Johnson tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.372./.481/.628 and a ton of RBI).

    Billy Beane has often been heard to mutter that is he ever pays more than $1 million for a first baseman he deserves to be fired. $2.5 million for Hatteberg a year for two years must mean Beane is willing to forgo his severance pay and benefits, too.

    The Jermaine Dye deal is an albatross. He was hurt and he's not that bad, nobody in MLB was as bad as Dye last year.

    Terrence Long just seems to be against all traditional logic. His numbers were supposed to steadily improve, instead they have dropped off a cliff and they were then driven to another cliff where they were shot, stuffed into a bag and then pushed off the cliff into a river. Which headed for another cliff.

    Ramon Hernandez deal is well worth every penny. He is not a catcher for his bat, he is a catcher because of the way he handles the pitching staff and the home plate umpires. This is baseball, not fantasy league baseball, after all. Hernandez had a down year statistically in 2002 as he had some residual effects from a wrist injury suffered in the 2001 playoffs. His 2003 season was a very good year. Let's break it down a little differently;
    Hernandez caught in more than 80% of the A's games, getting about 4 at-bats a game as a hitter, getting on base at a .331 clip. He was behind the plate for about 5,000 of the 6,000 plate appearances A's opponents had this season, allowing a .314 OBP. The A's were arguably the best pitching staff in MLB top to bottom. Leveraging Hernandez the hitter to Hernandez the catcher at $1.8 million a year, he looks to have earned his pay. Not to mention being 1250 times more valuable than the league average catcher.
    Hernandez is also being worked to death and he'll be lucky to walk to the bathroom with his original knees by age 45. His pay is justified.

    Giambi's contract is ridiculous and if were written on anything other than NY Yankees stationary it might be labeled one of the worst in professional sports. There is wide misconception that the A's did not offer Giambi a favorable deal and the specifics of that deal were made know by a Bay Area sports writer by the name of Glenn Dickey. Later the confirmations came out, but well after Giambi had already had his press conference. You have to remember, the A's are not a team to waste time or money with media relations unless they have to. They have too many other things to do. Billy Beane is no fan of the media and time talking to the press is time he and Paul could be scouring numbers and going over player reports. Take a look at the A's organization and one word comes to mind in regards to staff: thin.

    Anyway.

    Glenn Dickey is not a sports reporter. He is a writer who happens to write about sports. Dickey doesn't swallow anything fed to him by teams as the Associated Press and local beat writers too often do. The negotiations with Giambi went on for months and there was a long period during the 2002 season when the silent partner of the A's, Ken Hoffman was looking to sell. Billy Beane has a clause in his contract that he can get out if ownership changes hands, so this was a dicey few months.

    This put anything Billy Beane was doing as a GM into a wringer as they really didn't know what numbers they could deal with until Hoffman backed down from the ledge. By then the season was over and Giambi's agent was using his public relations department to start feeding the media reports on how badly the A's were treating Giambi. Which is ridiculous, because the A's built their entire advertising campaign around Giambi. They pushed hard for his MVP in 2001 and again in 2002.

    This calls into question the motives of Giambi. People forget sometimes why he wore 16 with the A's and 25 with the Yankees. His father, John Giambi, raised both Jason and the Giambi who would not slide and huge Mickey Mantle fans. In a media guide way back in 1997 Jason Giambi lists as his career goal/dream to play for the New York Yankees. Was there ever a doubt he was going to wear pinstripes? Nope.

    In fact, Billy Beane effectively handcuffed Brian Cashman and the Yankees in the negotiations. They drove the price up so high and included so many contingencies and clauses, Giambi is stuck in New York until his early late 30's. The A's made a good offer in salary on the suggested numbers by Giambi and his agent. When they matched the salary numbers, Giambi and his agent wanted a limited no trade clause. The A's complied. Then Giambi's camp wanted a no trade clause.

    The big question here is: why?

    Two years into the deal and Giambi would have been a 10/5 guy anyway, giving Giambi the right to refuse any trade to any team for any reason. So what would be the point of an 'unlimited' trade clause? There's no value there as the A's would not have seen a need to trade him, anyway - remember the media campaigns. So why then the no trade clause issue? Because it was the last straw. Billy Beane had other things to deal with and playing Giambi's agent for a chump and screwing the Yankees at the same time was eating into Beane's schedule. By most accounts, the A's countered at least three different deal breakers that were publicly leaked.

    So Giambi, eventually, could point the finger at Oakland and keep his reputation as a nice guy and that he was willing to settle for less money. Please. When in fact, he and his agent felt they were using the A's to get a better deal out of the Yankees. Which is stupid. You just ask George Steinbrenner for the checkbook and he hands it over, anyway. Giambi was always going to New York and it had to be in 2001 because the 2002 free agent market crash that was projected would have killed the big payday.

    The Yankees have, essentially, a very good defensive first baseman in Nick Johnson they may have to trade because they'll have too many first basemen and DH's (Johnson to Seattle for Ichiro?). Bernie Williams can't throw and there is steam picking up on the rumor that Alfonso Soriano will move to the outfield with the aging Williams moving to DH. Giambi is average at first, even when healthy and that seems like it won't happen, ever. He has a nagging hamstring injury that has bothered him since his time with the A's and his knee is at the top of a long laundry list. How do you get that hurt playing first base and DH'inng?

    As far as the Billy Beane ego trip everyone else has been taking, it's a falsehood. Beane is actually a very grounded person who doesn't fit the mold of the traditional crusty baseball GM. Because of his bold moves and the press he gets because of those moves he has been painted as an egomaniac.

    Michael Lewis' book...if Michael Lewis asked to write a book about your work place, wouldn't you defer? This is the guy who wrote Liar's Poker for McGwire's sake. Plus, he's married to Tabitha Soren! Beane was a fan of Lewis' and Lewis lives in the Bay Area, which helped the matter along. It was only supposed to be a short series of articles for a magazine, but the material was too rich. How many books are written on the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees each year? How many of them actually mean anything? Zero, because they are all worship pieces and ridiculous picture books with fancy typeset.

    People seem to think the focus of Moneyball is Beane. He is not. He is an example. The problem is that if 15% of America is illiterate half of the remaining 85% do not know how to read. Moneyball struck nerves because the GM's were wearing their Emperor's entire wardrobes. Any educated baseball fan knew about the SABR and Jamesian theories. Most just did not know how gullible and how very clueless most baseball front offices are. Bud Selig was right (has that every been written?). MLB needs to eliminate about a third of its teams. But not because they don't make enough money; just to put them out of their misery.

    Wait 'Til Next Year- Billy Beane is a fantastic GM, but I'm hesitant to call him the best in the business. Let's give that label to Scheurholtz (for now), and wait on Beane.

    The Long and Hernandez extensions were good in theory. The idea of tying a player up through his arbitration seasons is good in theory: oftentimes you can have a very good player for a longtime (see Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Tejada). But sometimes, especially in the case of Terrence Long, it backfires. Now, you're on the hook for $3M a year to a player not worthy of a Major League contract. Beane has to be careful when making these arbitration extensions, because Long's contract is ugly.

    Scott Hatteberg, on the other hand, was a very stupid move. With Graham Koonce having the season of his life, Dan Johnson not far behind, why make this move? Koonce is ready, and has legit 40HR, 100BB potential. Instead, he'll have to play around Hatteberg, since he got his name published in a Lewis book.

    If the story is true that 6 years, $91M with a no-trade clause could have locked up Giambi, it should have been done. No ifs, no ands, not buts.

    2) The A's lost two big advocates of their philosophy this off-season when Rick Peterson and Paul DePodesta left the team. Will this effect Billy Beane, or will the A's beliefs live on?

    EiO- Well, Paul DePodesta isn't going anywhere, yet (Dodgers, if anywhere). And Peterson had probably done as much as he could with the A's. There is reason to believe the A's can continue to take the schema of preparation Peterson has created and continue. Don't forget, the A's allowed Peterson to go and he left on better than great terms. There's no reason to think Peterson wouldn't be open to suggestions or advice to the new pitching brain trust (Curt Young). They'll be spending time together in Alabama this winter, anyway.

    WTNY- I believe this will really hurt Beane. One of the points I took away from Moneyball was how much DePodesta really helps this team, especially on draft day. Oftentimes in the book, they refer to DePodesta's computer, and the analysis he has done for the team. If he leaves, that will be gone, and Billy Beane will have to discover which button to click with on the mouse.

    Rick Peterson will hurt, but not as bad. His principles have been established, and they can probably find someone to continue with that. Look for Beane to go after someone like Mike Marshall, who would really help the club.

    3) With Rich Harden a mainstay in the rotation, the A's promise to have four great pitchers next season. Would you hold onto Ted Lilly, or try to deal him for a J.D. Drew type? Is PCL pitcher of the year Justin Duchscherer a good enough pitcher to succeed in the Majors?

    EiO- We're not sold on Harden or the decision to bring Harden along this soon. Especially the decision to bring Haden in for a relief appearance in the ALDS when a homerun could win the game and decidedly turn the series. 97 mph fastballs have a tendency to supply their own velocity when redirected.

    Ted Lilly? Which Ted Lilly? If the A's could get a lot for Lilly in trade, they should go for it. Lilly is an enigma wrapped inside a riddle, inside a fortune cookie crushed inside a spoiled brat's clenched fist. Lilly could be had for 3 years at a $2-3 million a year. That's rather pricey for a fourth starter considering Justin Duchscherer and Joe Blanton are on the verge of making the jump.

    Duchscherer has pitched more innings than he ever has this year and he's currently pitching for TEAM USA. He may need a few months off to recover from his off-season. Duchscherer is ready, no question. But his body might collapse by Spring Training. If not Duchscherer, don't fret, Billy Beane will have someone else ready to step in and don't be surprised if it comes from an unusual source (Keith Foulke, anyone?)

    The A's are loaded in their minor league system with right-handed arms. Casting Lilly off for a prospect with a hefty bat wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. Not Jury Duty D. Drew has more issues with his knees than Bud Selig has with the Hair Club for Men.

    WTNY- Lilly should be gone. I bet a lot on him in 2003, and he was way too inconsistent. For as good as the A's rotation will be next season, it's much better to spend 300K on Duchscherer than $3M on Lilly. This team needs to worry about their offense and their bullpen, so Lilly is off the hook.

    Duchscerer proved himself this season, and in the spacious A's ballpark, he'll benefit a lot. He doesn't hurt himself by walking people, and should be a solid Major League pitcher. Is a 4.50ERA good enough for the 5th starter of a fantastic A's rotation? That's around what Duchscherer might have, and I really compare him to Jae Seo of the Mets.

    4) One of the main reasons the team isn't pursuing Miguel Tejada is their top prospect, Bobby Crosby, is ready. What do you expect from Crosby this season? Would the team be smart to lock-up Eric Chavez or save the money to keep the great pitchers in Oakland?

    EiO- Bobby Crosby might seem ready, but his footwork was horrible last year in the few appearances he made and the A's called him up it seems, just to cool him off. It was most likely just jitters, but it wasn't pretty. He looked like he was going to trip over his own feet a few times and he didn't do a whole lot at the plate. There are questions about his range and he could eventually swap with Mark Ellis. Ellis is an exceptional fielder and played short in college. Ellis should have a gold glove for his work this year, but the award is biased toward hitting stats.

    If Crosby can swing .280/.340./.460 most everyone will be happy. His defense will be the key. The A's pitchers get a lot of groundballs (exception Zito and Lilly's off days). The giant egg that Tejada laid in April actually makes the transition easier to swallow. If the free agent market turns soft, Tejada may return for a single season, but it's in that 10-15% chance of happening area.

    The A's should consider platooning Eric Chavez with a scarecrow against left-handers. Chavez is the poster boy for wasted talent. There are whisperings of a self-confidence problem and social anxiety disorder. This is a guy with a ton of talent and a marshmallow psyche. He may not be worth locking up in a long-term deal as he may take several years to realize his own personal potential and to become a complete player. Not in the five-tool sense. Chavez gives at-bats away and often looks lost at the plate. Against left-handers he often looks like he is hoping to work a walk rather than have to swing the bat. Compare that to ten-day periods when he launches balls above the plexi-glass 480 feet away in the bleachers at the Network Associates Coliseum and consistently gets on base as if his dog was waiting at first base for him.

    WTNY- Crosby is more than ready..he's ready for a Rookie of the Year season. I think we can expect 30 doubles, 20 home runs, and a .280/.340/.450 line.

    I wouldn't lock-up Chavez yet, because his head is way too far up his ass. To have as much talent as he has, and to hit lefties at such a despicable pace is pathetic. Let him go somewhere else if he wants to, and save the money for that rotation. Plus, I'm sure the great selection of Mark Teahen will pay off at some point (insert sarcasm).

    5) Another of the A's many beliefs is you can find a closer with ease. Billy Taylor, Jason Isringhausen, Billy Koch, and Keith Foulke. Who is the 5th name on that list? Is Moneyball reliever Chad Bradford capable of holding the job?

    EiO- Chad Bradford was the best pitcher in baseball in 2003 at not allowing inherited runners to score. He is much more valuable as a set-up man than a closer. The A's could turn to Chad Harville as a closer and as future trade bait. Jeremy Fikac was in the mix until his Arizona Fall League experience turned into possible months of rehab (shoulder). In reality, the A's might be the first team to go with the closer by committee and simply the last guy to be on the mound at the end of the game gets a save. As dumb stat if there ever was one.

    Keith Foulke does want to stay in Oakland. For $6 million a year and if Ken Macha pulls his head out of his ass and uses the pen correctly, the A's could have as good a bullpen as a starting rotation.

    WTNY- No, Chad Bradford shouldn't be closer. I like him in his current role, and I think the A's shouldn't put closer pressure on him. Instead, sign a cheap reliever, like Rod Beck, to a one-year deal. Or, use Tim Lilly to acquire one.

    6) After Moneyball, five of the A's top six draft picks flunked out. Was Moneyball a bad thing for the franchise, and specifically the players yet to touch stardom. Won't the book be laughed at if players like Jeremy Brown and Mark Teahen never have success?

    EiO- Two years and they already flunked out? Isn't that a little heavy-handed? How long does it usually take for a player to progress through a minor league system? How many top picks usually pan out? Moneyball did put a lot of unnecessary pressure on a few players. And Brown was out with an injury, so let's not jump off the bridge until we get to it. Most players take a few years to find themselves in the A's system. With the exception of A ball, the A's system had successful teams. We could go into theory and giving into the team concept and disregarding personal glory, etc. We won't. It was an odd year for the organization.

    WTNY- The A's system took a hit this year, although Joe Blanton and Bobby Crosby aren't a bad one-two. Shane Komine blossomed as well, so he'll find himself in the top 10. Nick Swisher still has a lot of potential, but he probably wasn't ready for AA in 2003. Look for the A's to send him back there in 2004, and for him to follow the path of Gabe Gross. Swisher should be playing center for the A's in 2005, and justify Beane's selection. Blanton will replace Hudson in the rotation in 2005, and pitch very well. I'm not bullish on Brown, but he has until 2006 to get ready. Ramon Hernandez has two more seasons left on his contract, so Brown can take some time to redo AA, and to have a full season in AAA. I like Ben Fritz, and I can see him having a good 2004, if he plays in high-A. Note to Billy Beane: take it slow with these players. I don't like Teahen, and I don't think he'll ever reach the Majors.

    7) The A's have already made a good claim this offseason, when they grabbed Marco Scutaro off waivers. It seems like there will be a Spring Training battle at second, where Mark Ellis will fight Scutaro, Esteban German, and Frank Menechino for the job. Who would you choose for the job, and who should lead off for the A's next season?

    EiO- Expect Frank Menechino to be traded - he was seen in street clothes in the Yankees dugout during the playoffs. Esteban German is basically a singles hitter and long tried the A's patience. Scutaro has decent numbers, but they aren't enough in comparison to Ellis' defense. As far as a leadoff hitter, we're a long way from April. The A's outfield is about to be overhauled, and the Winter Meetings will be a lot of fun.

    WTNY- Trade Ellis. He doesn't fit the A's philosophy, and there are players on the market who do. Read below to see what I do with the second base position, but I think it's a different philosophy. Scutaro was a very good claim, but I think he'll need to prove it again in 2004.

    8) Create a step-by-step offseason to-do list for Billy Beane, along with a projected 2004 lineup.

    EiO- FROM THE DESK OF THE BEST LOOKING GM IN BASEBALL A 2004 To Do List
    1. Haven't panicked before, why start now?
    1a. Hide Paul Depodesta's phone
    1b. Hide Paul Depodesta's calendar
    1c. Hide Paul Depodesta

    2. Trade Terrence Long or take him for a very long drive and reunite him with his stats. Get anyone with a pulse to take his place. Don't over look AAA and sign a free agent like you did last year. Eric Byrnes was there the whole time and Chris Singleton was $1 million wasted on a fourth outfielder.

    3. Hire a public relations firm to handle the media for once. It may cost a bit, but it's better than having to answer stupid questions from the local beat writer idiots. Have the slobbering fools chase after carefully worded press releases and puff pieces rather than questioning the franchise books for a change.

    4. See if you can trick Vladimir Guerrero's agent into a meeting.

    5. See what Jermaine Dye is worth and then act on it. The long-term plan no longer involves Dye. See if Theo Epstein wants to try and drag Manny Ramirez through three or four other teams and dump his salary in a few different places (Arizona, Chicago, Florida). Dye might be able to be a cog in that scenario. Plus, there's at least one minor leaguer on the list to be had.

    6. Consider propping up the other guys in the front office; Eric Kubota, David Forst and Danny McCormack in a larger role to deter much of the public focus. A season in the shadows could be better than another year of burn in the spotlight. Everyone else in baseball will know who is still behind the controls.

    7. Continue begin wishy-washy on GM interviews and vacancies. Make sure every new GM hire knows they were a second choice at best.

    8. Projected 2004 line up:
    Mark Ellis, 2nd base
    Jose Guillen, Right field
    Eric Chavez, 3rd base
    Graham Koonce, Leftfield
    Erubiel Durazo, DH
    Bobby Crosby, Shortstop
    Scott Hatteberg, 1st base
    Eric Byrnes, Centerfield
    Ramon Hernandez, catcher
    9. Look into hair replacement options.

    WTNY- My to-do list and starting lineup:

    1) Get rid of Lilly, Long, and Ellis- These players don't fit in, and make way too much money. Lilly may have to be non-tendered, and Long may have to be released. Ellis could be traded, but your not likely to take in much of a player (maybe a LOOGY to replace Rincon?). This will free up some extra cash, as the focus should be on offense.

    2) Sign Jose Cruz and Kenny Lofton for the outfield- Cruz walked 102 times in 2003, and no, that's not a misprint. He's a gifted player, and I know he's very capable in left. He could split time there with the likes of Eric Byrnes and Billy McMillon, but give him the job. Lofton is perfect for this team, as he employs the plate discipline philosophy, and is a tremendous leadoff hitter. Byrnes would be a great 4th outfielder, and could spot all three positions at times.

    3) Sign Tony Graffanino for the infield- Graffanino would play second vs. all right-handers, and 3rd vs. the left-handers. Against lefties, Esteban German would step in at second base. Also, give Graham Koonce most of the time at first/DH, possibly sitting out against the occasional tough leftie. Scott Hatteberg would be a good bench player, and Durazo is still the 'holy grail.'

    4) Get Rod Beck to close- Let's face it, this guy can pitch. He may not be pretty, but he can do it. He's nearing a save milestone, and pitched in nearby San Diego last season. He still wants to close, and in Oakland he could do it. Also, sign a cheap LOOGY to replace Ricardo Rincon.

    My 2004 projected lineup:
    1. Kenny Lofton- CF- L
    2. Tony Graffanino- 2B- R
    3. Eric Chavez- 3B- L
    4. Erubiel Durazo- DH- L
    5. Jose Cruz Jr.- LF- B
    6. Graham Koonce- 1B- L
    7. Jermaine Dye- RF- R
    8. Ramon Hernandez- C- R
    9. Bobby Crosby- SS- R

    Bench: Melhuse, Byrnes, Hatteberg, German, and McMillon
    Rotation: Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden, Duchscherer
    Bullpen: Beck, Bradford, Fikac, Harville, Mecir, LOOGY

    Check back tomrrow, we got notes. Red Sox on Thursday!

    WTNYNovember 03, 2003
    Foreign Success
    By Bryan Smith

    Major League Baseball is the best on the planet. Nowhere else, the Olympics, the Asian Leagues, anywhere can replicate the kind of baseball the MLB plays. Since Jackie Robinson, our national past time has been promoting all minorities to be a part of the game. First it was African-American players, then Hispanic players of all kind. Asian pitchers were next on the horizon, and Cuban pitchers didn't wait long to follow.

    Ichiro was the first Asian position player, Hee Seop Choi was the first Korean. The trend of going outside of American borders is growing, with five foreign players looking to go straight to the Majors next season. Hideki and Contreras did well in 2003, and they are only helping us see the conversion rates between different countries and here. Maels Rodriguez, Yobal Duenas, Kaz Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, and Lee Seung-yeop will continue.

    Japanese Players

    Suzuki and Matsui have taught us one thing: Japanese players can play. We are starting to learn how to turn Japanese stats into a projection for Major League performance. I ran a variety of statistics (H/AB, 2B/AB, 2B/H, HR/AB, HR/H, BB/AB, K/AB) for Suzuki and Matsui's statistics in the Majors, their career Japanese stats, and their last three seasons in Japan. I combined all those totals for both players, and compared them against each other. Here are the results (first number is Japanese career vs. MLB totals, second is last 3 years in Japan vs. MLB):

    H/AB: .008 better in Jap.; .026 better in Jap.

    2B/AB: .006 better in Jap.; .010 better in Jap.
    2B/H: .014 better in Jap.; .018 better in Jap.

    HR/AB: .038 better in Jap.; .046 better in Jap.
    HR/H: .115 better in Jap.; .129 better in Jap.

    BB/AB: .075 better in Jap.; .099 better in Jap.
    K/AB: .053 better in MLB; .052 better in MLB

    All those numbers are relatively close, so we can infer a Japanese player's batting average will take a .015 hit when coming to the Majors, they will hit about an equal number of doubles, 4% less home runs, .080 less walks, and 5% less strikeouts. Here are Matsui and Iguchi's career Japanese stats, and their last 3 seasons:

    Matsui career: .309H/AB, .058 2B/AB, .032HR/AB, .081BB/AB, .162K/AB
    Matsui 3-year: .315H/AB, .064 2B/AB, .054HR/AB, .089BB/AB, .185K/AB

    Iguchi career: .259H/AB, .047 2B/AB, .047HR/AB, .103BB/AB, .230K/AB
    Iguchi 3-year: .288H/AB, .052 2B/AB, .050HR/AB, .113BB/AB, .189K/AB

    So, after using those stats, and the Hideki-Ichiro conversion, I have these predictions for these players in 2004, given 600AB:

    Matsui: .295, 31 doubles, 15HR, 24BB, 72K
    Iguchi: .255, 24 doubles, 18HR, 45BB, 90K

    Matsui is a decent shortstop, that would be good for 10-20E a year in the Majors. He has above-average speed, and could be counted on for 25SB. He just turned 28, so a 4-year deal wouldn't be a bad idea. Interested teams include the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Mets, Angels, Orioles, and mainly, the Seattle Mariners.

    Iguchi is an above-average second basemen, and can even play a decent shortstop. He has Gold Glove potential at the right side of the bag, and is merely average to the left. He has sensational speed, likely good for about 40-50SB. Tadahito will turn 29 in December, so a 3-year deal would be much smarter with him. The Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, and the Mets would show interest. My gut tells me his best choice would be for the Mets, playing in Hideki's town.

    Cuban Players

    The process of defecting from Cuba is a long and tedious onem that includes escaping Castro's iron fist, finding political asylum or residency in another country, and then being signed by a Major League team. Players that don't find residency elsewhere are subject to the June Amateur Draft, and will see far less money. Jose Contreras has 'residency' in Nicaragua, and expect Maels Rodriguez and Yobal Duenas to follow his lead.

    Rodriguez, like Contreras, was one of Cuba's best pitchers, setting the single-season strikeout mark. He was reported to throw between 98-100 mph, with Pedro-like control. However, that scouting report was deemed moot after Rodriguez was reported to be in the upper-80s this last year. Maels says he can still pitch 100, and will demonstrate that sometime in the near future. Other Cubans who came before him at a similar age were Livan Hernandez, who had immediete success with the Marlins, and Danys Baez, whom has struggled with the Indians.

    Much of Rodriguez's future will depend on what role Major League scouts deem is the best for him. Can his arm handle 200IP, or is he better suited to be a closer? Will the high-90s fastball stay with him 120 pitches, or just 40? The Red Sox promise to be court Rodriguez, as he could serve as a starter or a closer with them. New York should put in a phone call, and the Indians could be involved as well. The Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, and Dodgers promise to be National League teams with interest.

    Yobal Duenas is a different story, as he isn't following a worn path. I can't think of one Cuban position-player before him, so it will be difficult to project his statistics. Duenas is a 31-year old second basemen, whom at one point was the Cuban stolen base champ. He is said to be past his prime, and teams will be slow to bite on him. Boston would sign him if it helped their chance at Rodriguez, assuming Duenas is cheap. Anaheim may be interested, and the Mets will put in a phone call. Also, expect the Cubs and Dodgers to pursue Duenas as well.

    The Korean

    Lee Seung-yeop will also be the first of his kind...the first position player to come from the Korean Professional League to the Majors. So it's impossible to predict his performance, even Hee Seop Choi's numbers are moot. We know Seung-yeop can hit the long ball, as he's broken the Asian Home Run record. He hit .301 this season, along with 144RBI.

    If I was held at gunpoint, I would bet Lee posts a .260 average, with about 30 home runs. Think Mark Teixeira in 2003, but without Teixeira's later potential. Who knows who will bite, but I know the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Orioles, and even Devil Rays will have interest.

    Well folks, that's it for today. I'll have the Oakland A's Organizational Meeting up in the next couple of days, with the Red Sox following. So, keep reading...

    WTNYOctober 31, 2003
    Organizational Meetings: Giants
    By Bryan Smith

    The Manny Ramirez news was unbelievable today, and I need some time to digest what happened. I'll write about the situation Monday, pushing organizational meetings to Tuesday and Thursday next week. This weekend I may make a short post about rumors that are flying around as well.

    Moving on, today I hit the San Francisco Giants with my organizational meetings. Matthew Durham, a.k.a. the Southpaw, agreed to answer a few questions about his team. And I answer the same questions as well...

    1) On the offensive side, the Giants have free agents in right field, and at shortstop, first base, and catcher. Jose Cruz Jr. and J.T. Snow are out the door. Would you pursue Rich Aurilia and/or Benito Santiago? Can Todd Linden and Lance Niekro+Pedro Feliz handle the RF and 1B positions respectively. Are Neifi Perez and Yorvit Torrealba to be trusted at SS and C? If not, who do you pursue for these positions?

    Southpaw- J.T. may not be as gone as many may think. He's made far too much money in the past for what he's done (field, but not hit), but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him come back in the $2-3 million range. The question will be if he can get more than that on a team he'd want to play for (it'll be tough for him to get paid AND play for a contender).

    I'd let Santiago go, and I think he's already gone. Aurilia would be a better choice for the Giants to go after, especially since they've got Neifi Perez penciled in without him.

    I would be surprised if opening day came around and there wasn't at least a new starting OF in the Giants organization, but I think that Todd Linden and Lance Niekro will be serviceable off the bench. From what I understand, Pedro Felix has been all but given a starting job next year. I keep hearing 25-30 HRs, but I think that's a result of a smaller sample size. I'd be more than happy with 15-20 and a decent OBP.

    And as for behind the dish, Torreabla will be the 2004 Opening Day starter, barring a surprise transaction (FA signing or trade). A decent backup will probably be signed on the cheap. Someone like Brent Mayne.

    The position that the Giants will need to pursue the most will be in the OF, with either a power guy in RF or an upgrade in CF (moving Grissom to RF). Steve Shelby and I love the idea of a Mike Cameron signing, and it makes sense with this team and park (I'm still not used to "SBC" yet).

    Other than that, everyone's going to talk about Vlad and Sheffield, and while I think that the Giants have an outside chance to land one, I don't expect it at all. Vlad played for Filipe, and Sheff almost went to Oakland with Bonds a while back, but the reality is that neither will likely be in Orange and Black next season (unless they're in Baltimore).

    Wait 'Til Next Year- An offense is hard to build in San Francisco, as it's so easy to just rely on Bonds (which I address in another question). The most important move for Sabean is to re-sign Rich Aurilia, and to not trust Neifi Perez with a 500AB job. He's a fantastic fielder and worthy of a bench spot, yet a wee bit overpriced, but his .600 OPS hitting is disgusting. Aurilia's a little injury-prone, but it a top-five NL SS when healthy. With him, Durham, Alfonzo, Grissom, and Bonds, there is a start.

    J.T. Snow is probably gone, unless he can be retained for about one million. I'm leaning towards making a competition between Pedro Feliz, Lance Niekro, and a minor league free agent like Calvin Pickering. Feliz has 20-25HR power, but he may never get an OBP over .320. Niekro will give you a high average, but less power than even Snow did. If the team had a manager that could effectively balance the two, that would be nice.

    Give the catching job to Yorvit Torrealba. In his time with the Giants, it isn't hard to predict his 2004 line, prorated to 400AB: .265/.330/.390. It isn't horrible, and sadly wouldn't put him in the lowest echelon of Major League catchers. Since the team has a pretty solid other five, don't worry about the catching position.

    And finally, give right field to Todd Linden. Baseball Prospectus loves the guy, and even after a bad 2003 season, he's ready for a Major League job. Feliz could probably play a little there too, and Sabean would be smart to add a good defensive centerfielder (Goodwin again?), that could push Grissom to right occasionally. Again, Alou must do a good job of balancing to get the Giants back in the playoffs.

    2) How much does the Jesse Foppert injury hurt the 2004 rotation? Does this put added pressure on Brian Sabean to re-sign Sidney Ponson or go after veteran Greg Maddux? Would you give Kevin Correia, Jim Brower, or Dustin Hermanson the 5th slot? If not, then who?

    Southpaw- Jesse Foppert's injury will definitely hurt the Giants. With any luck, he could be back in the bullpen for the second half of '04, but that's probably a bit too optimistic. If he CAN get back in the 'pen next year, he could be starting (effectively) by the second half of '05, and that would be huge. TJ patients almost always have one down year before returning to form (see: Matt Morris, John Smoltz, etc.).

    I don't expect Ponson back, regardless of the rotation's position. Schmidt's getting surgery and Woody appears to be on the decline (I still can't believe they chose to keep him over Ortiz, but alas), but I still don't see Ponson coming back.

    I'd love to see Greg Maddux come to San Fran, but money will definitely be an issue. With the expected 2004 budget for the Giants, Maddux would need to take a slight paycut to join the team, and with Scott Boras as his agent, that may not be possible. With Maddux you not only get a quality starting pitcher, but also another pitching coach. He's going to help out some team more than they'll know.

    As for the 5th spot, everything I've heard has Correia in the rotation, so he'll be there if they sign someone, and in the 4th spot if they don't.

    WTNY- Foppert's injury won't hurt too much in 2004, as he didn't quite perform like they needed in 2003. He's a fantastic pitcher, but had a lot of us scratching our heads when the radar reading said 93 mph in the Majors, after 99 being typical in the minors.

    I like Maddux a lot more than Ponson. Maddux, in a spacious SBC Park, could do some good damage, and would be a good teammate to Barry Bonds. Ponson is a giant question mark, and the team should let Kenny Williams jump all over him. Maddux is a much more sure thing, and would become the second starter on this team. If pushed, Maddux would hit 15 wins, have an ERA around 3.50, and pitch 150 innings.

    I didn't see a lot of Correia, so I have a hard time trusting him. I like competitions for the fifth spot, and bringing in a few minor league free agents (Justin Thompson?) isn't a bad idea. Correia looked pretty good during the last two months, but make him prove it during the next six. Don't roll over Sabean.

    3) Robb Nen will be back next season, taking over the closing job that was Tim Worrell's. With a budget expected to decrease, can Worrell be brought back? Should the Giants trade Felix Rodriguez? Who and what can we expect from the bullpen in 2004?

    Southpaw- Robb Nen's a great pitcher, but his contract has been a major burden on the Giants payroll for its final 2 seasons (04-05), both of which were Player Option years. Nen is definitely better than Worrell, but not better enough to make up for the salary difference.

    Worrell's gone if he can get "closer" money somewhere else. If he wants to stay, I'm sure the Giants would want him back. It may just come down to numbers.

    Felix may be gone, but if the bullpen is on the shallow end expect him to stay on as insurance in case Nen falls.

    WTNY- Nen's contract kills the Giants, and shows the dangers with good "show-up-in-the-ninth" pitchers. Worrell did fine with San Francisco, but should take big dollars somewhere else to return to middle relief. He's always been a very good pitcher, but an 'overbudgeted' team can't afford him.

    Felix Rodriguez and Joe Nathan are important parts to the bullpen. I think both need to come back, and both need to never screw up. Nen should be a little shaky in his return, so the Giants need the seventh and eighth innings to be solid. I would also re-sign Matt Herges, whom played very well during his stay. That would give Nen three very good right-handed set-up men. Outside of that, there is Jason Christianson, Scott Eyre, and Jim Brower.

    4) It seems the Giants philosophy has leaned on just putting average players on offense, and letting Barry Bonds do everything else. Does this put too much pressure on Bonds to stay healthy and active? Can we expect his level of play to decrease as he nears 40?

    Southpaw- With a player like Bonds there isn't much else you CAN do, unless you've got very deep pockets. Bonds' salary is almost a quarter of the entire team payroll, so it's not easy to surround him with superstars, and his age prevents the team from rebuilding around him (see: A-Rod). The Giants window is as big as Bonds' time there, unless they pick up a masher like Vlad before Bonds retires.

    The Giants success will likely always ride on the back of Bonds. If he stays healthy, they're an instant contender; if he's out, there isn't a large margin of error.

    Bonds has been playing like a Superman for the last few seasons, despite being on the tail end of his career. I won't be surprised to see Bonds continue his dominance for a few more years, but age will eventually catch up with him if a random injury doesn't stop him first. Enjoy this while you can, because you never know when it will end.

    WTNY- At some point the wonderful journey Bonds has taken us on will end. But in the meantime, it's stupid to bet against him. He's the smartest hitter in the Majors, and really changes a game. So in that sense, it's fair to surround him with eight average players. But having good hitters in front of him is important, because they can see such good pitches as a result.

    I'm torn on my thoughts of Bonds breaking Hank's record. Does he have it in him? If he does, will Sosa and later A-Rod shatter the record? Is 700+ home runs as great a feat as it once was? Bonds likely will break the home run record, but won't hang onto it long. He'll never get to 800, but will one day end the argument of best baseball player ever. He may not be signing autographs during the weekends, but Barry Bonds is the best player from this, and any, generation.

    5) Jerome Williams had a sensational rookie season, although he wasn't nearly as touted as Marlin Dontrelle Willis. What kind of numbers do you expect from Williams in 2004? What other young Giants should take a step forward?

    Southpaw- I always expect a "sophomore slump" from rookies who do well, but I don't think that Williams will have too much trouble with his. He's been the guy the Giants have been big on for years, and that's one of the reasons he was brought up last season.

    With a healthy staff next year he could start anywhere from 2-4, depending on how well Woody picthes, and if they sign another starter.

    For info on who may be the next player up in the Giants orgainization, I'll forward you to Stephen Shelby (SS's SF Giants News). He's my reference point for all things Giants in the Minors.

    WTNY- Williams is a stud. Although his 2002 was a little disappointing, Williams was the stud of the 2002 AFL, which led him into 2003 very nicely. He reminds many of Doc Gooden, but draw absolutely no press this season. If he pitches like a number two starter next season, don't be surprised. His stuff borders on that of Schmidt.

    Looking in the system, the Giants have a lot of good pitchers. Boof Bonser will be up soon ,and a host of pitchers follow. The best being Merkin Valdez, or "El Mago." Valdez is really the only player who will justify the Ramon Ortiz for Damian Moss deal.

    6) What was your opinion of Felipe Alou in his first season as manager? How do his styles contrast those of his predecessor Dusty Baker? And going to the front office, why do the Giants need to decrease payroll in they attract the best attendance numbers in the Majors?

    Southpaw- Personally, I thought Felipe was good for the Giants. The Giants are big on former-Giants, and Felipe's a quality guy in general. It was a good fit. Dusty's a good manager too, but there was too much friction for him to stay.

    Something I noticed in the playoffs was that Alou may have pulled some pitchers too soon, but then again, Baker's problem was usually letting them stay in too long, so maybe I'm just jaded.

    As for the payroll, from how I understand it the Giants were actually OVER budget this season, which would explain the decrease. It's easy to look at attendance (which I thought was second to NYY) and say that they should maintain or increase the budget, but without having all the information it's tough to know for sure. In general I think that a majority of the owners make too much money while not improving their teams, but I don't think that's the case in San Francisco. It seems that Magowan really does care about the fans, but I could just be naive.

    In the end it doesn't matter why they need to cut payroll, it just matters that the Giants (especially Brian Sabean) do what they can within their power to get better and go for that elusive San Francisco Championship.

    WTNY- After having a year of Dusty in Chicago, I can't complain about another manager. Dusty is vastly overrated, a product of good GMs and big markets. He's been handed talent, and actually hasn't gone as far as he should have.

    Felipe did well in 2003, but he was holding everything together at the end. The Bonds' death midseason was a distraction, mainly because Bonds' absence hurts the team so much. Jason Schmidt was a little overworked during the season, but probably had to be really babied.

    7) Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo had disastrous first seasons as Giants. Do you expect performance to increase from both of them in 2004, and to what degree?

    Southpaw- I expect both to improve their numbers from 2004. With Edgardo, expect second half Alfonzo, not Playoff Alfonzo.

    WTNY- Ray Durham will be my second basemen during fantasy baseball next year. He's a really good second basemen and leadoff hitter, but really didn't get the chance to prove himself in 2003. He will in 2004, when the Giants have him touch home 120 times.

    8) Create a step-by-step offseason to-do list for Brian Sabean.

    Southpaw- If I REALLY knew what to do, I'd probably be a GM, but here goes:

    1. Sign an OF bat. Do it soon, get it out of the way. Protect Bonds in the lineup. Build from there.

    2. Sign another SP, get Maddux if he'll come cheap (ditto for Pettite) otherwise get a second tier guy that won't hurt the budget.

    3. Give Feliz his shot playing every day or put him in a package for a Sexon (likely) or Beltran (not likely).

    4. Sign Hasagawa if you can afford him, trade Felix Rodriguez (J.D. Drew?).

    5. Get us back to the World Series . . . Bonds won't lose twice.

    WTNY- First of all, let me say I'm not a buyer on the Giants for 2004. They simply have too much money allocated towards Barry Bonds and Robb Nen, and likely can't succeed because of that. If Bonds gets hurt, this team becomes one of the worst teams in the division. I think signing Maddux is a good move, but I don't think Sabean should test McGowan's limits. The San Diego Padres are primed to win next season. But anyway, here is a recap of my moves:

    1. Re-sign Rich Aurilia
    2. Give Torrealba the catching job, Todd Linden right field, and a platoon of Felix and Niekro at first
    3. Sign Greg Maddux, and bring in minor league free agents to battle with Correia.
    4. Let Worrell go, but keep F-Rod.
    5. Wait for the days when Williams, Foppert, Bonser, and Valdez make up a damn good rotation.

    That's it for now, have a good weekend and watch the Manny situation.

    WTNYOctober 30, 2003
    More Damn Yankees
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday, Alex Belth and Larry Mahnken answered questions about the Yankees future. There is perhaps no media subject more chronicled than Yankee offseasons. While most everone (me included) hates the Bronx Bombers come October, we love them in December. No other pro sports team floods as much money into their team, and with Steinbrenner, no player is ever out of reach.

    Today, I'll take my stab at the Yankees, more specifically, my answer to question 8 from yesterday. Question 8 read: Create an Offseason To-Do List for the Yankees. Again, here is Alex Belth's answers:

    a. Making pitching decisions. Sign Pettitte, trade Weaver for another front line starter.
    b. Figure out the outfield. Move Bernie to left, and then either Sori to center and Matsui to right, or Matsui to center and Vlad or Sheff to right. Or Maybe get another center fielder and move Matsui to right.
    c. Sign Hasegawa.
    d. Figure out third base and second base. Move Aaron Boone.
    d. Figure out if you want to trade Nick Johnson.
    e. Get a left-hander in the pen.
    f. Sign coaches.

    And Larry Mahnken's answer:

    1. Re-sign Andy Pettitte
    2. Sign Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, or Mike Cameron (in that order)
    3. Sign Kevin Millwood or Bartolo Colon (in that order)
    4. If step two fails, try to trade for Carlos Beltran, but without giving up Johnson
    5. Re-sign Gabe White, pick up the option on Heredia
    6. Improve the bench: get a backup catcher who can hit some, a backup infielder who can field some, a good defensive replacement center fielder, and a real pinch hitter (NOT Ruben Sierra)

    Before I move on to my attempt, let me note two things I've come to realize about the Yankees...

    1) They are the smartest team in baseball. While Aaron Gleeman may be onto something that Jeter's clutchness is a wee bit overrated, there's no questioning this team's intelligence. They run the bases intelligently, bunt well, and move runners over. They take walks and work counts.
    2) New York has very bad defense. There aren't many things holding the Yankees back more than defense anymore. This must be resolved.

    Now, for a brief overview of my answer:

    1) Re-sign Andy Pettite and Felix Heredia
    2) Name coaches
    3) Trade Soriano
    4) Trade for Vazquez
    5) Reboost right side
    6) Go cheap on bench and bullpen

    Now, to go more in depth, here goes...

    1) Re-sign Pettite and Heredia- While these two may seem like an odd couple, both fit in New York. Andy was raised in the Yankee system, and all his success has come in pinstripes. It's a good argument that without Pettite the Yankees wouldn't have advanced to the World Series, so in other words, the team must re-sign him. The man is loved in New York, and has more postseason wins than anybody...ever. He'll never see $11M associated with his name again, but three years at $21M sounds good.

    Heredia pitched well after an August claim, earning Torre's trust and respect. He can retire lefties, and is a good second southpaw in the bullpen. He should be low on the priority list, as should the rest of the bullpen. All the AL rivals (Boston, Oakland, Minnesota) should have worse bullpens in 2004, so Steinbrenner and Co. should leave that on the backburner. If need be, trade for a player during midseason.

    2. Zimmer is gone, Down is gone. Mazzilli and Stottlemyre are out the door. That leaves Joe Torre and Willie Randolph to pick up the mess. So, I had a revelation. Why not go with younger, more popular coaches in this situation. Sign Don Mattingly as hitting coach, David Cone to be pitching coach, and Luis Sojo for 1st base. Then find another funny-looking bench coach (Lasorda?) to give Fox great images of Torre and his funny-looking sidekick. God...I miss Zim.

    3. Trade Alfonso Soriano to the Royals for Carlos Beltran- Let's see. The Yankees want to move Soriano to center, have him become more selective, and be an ideal middle-of-the-order hitter? Well, by trading Soriano you can have that player without all the development needed. Beltran is the player the Yankees want Soriano to be: he has one of the best SB success rates in baseall, has power from both sides, and plays good defense. He is a much smarter player than Soriano, thus he would fit better with the team. Beltran would allow the team to pass on Guerrero and Sheffield, and the Yankees would move Bernie to left and Hideki to right. That would result in a vastly improved outfield.

    The Royals would do this deal, as it would give them three more years before free agency, at a position they need more. David DeJesus is ready to replace Beltran in center, but the Royals have no long-term option at second base. They can afford for him to be a hit or miss player, with potential greater than that of Beltran.

    4. Trade Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and whatever prospects necessary (save Navarro), to acquire Javier Vazquez- Again, this would only give the Yankees a player for one season, but it would be worth it. Vazquez had a sensational second half, and would immedietly become in upper-tier of AL pitchers. He's a strikeout pitcher that wouldn't put a lot of stress on the players behind him.

    And while Larry Mahnken is so sure about Johnson, I'm not sold. He's very injury-caliber, and hasn't produced well enough for me to be convinced he'll be a superstar. His baserunning mistakes were deadly in the playoffs, and like Soriano, his stupid antics don't belong with this team. But in Montreal they would be welcomed.

    5. Revamp right side with Luis Castillo and Doug Mientkiewicz- Whew, talk about a defensive upgrade! Castillo is a switch-hitting second basemen that would add 50SB speed to the lineup immedietly. He seems to be a good guy to hae in the clubhouse, and don't let his playoff numbers confuse you: Luis Castillo is a great player.

    Is there a more perfect player for the Yankees than Doug Mientkiewicz? He defends well, and would make Jeter and the rest of the infielders much better. Doug is a clutch hitter, and has a very sweet swing. He wouldn't be asked a lot of offensively, other than to hit 30-40 doubles in Yankee stadium. But, for a 2-year, $5M contract, the Yankees would be stupid not to sign.

    6. Go cheap in bullpen and bench- First, the bullpen. Decline the options of Osuna and White. Make Karsay healthy. And then sign Mike Williams. He would come cheap, probably about $1M, and was a 40-save closer not that long ago. Williams would be a good set-up man to Rivera, and take the pressure off Karsay. Then, the rest of the bullpen is Chris Hammond, Heredia, and the loser of the Jeff Weaver v. Jon Lieber rotation battle.

    The bench is easy to construct. No Ruben Sierra. In fact, the Yankees have a rich man's Sierra within their farm system: Fernando Seguignol. The 2003 IL MVP had a great season, is a switch-hitter with pop, and can play first and the outfield corners. David Delucci is a good fit here, and Enrique Wilson should be kept around. Either Erick Almonte or Andy Phillips should be considered for the backup infield bench spot. The backup catcher? Why not Todd Greene? His defense wouldn't effect the Yankees in the 30 games they ask of him, but his hitting skills (including pinch hitting) would really benefit the team. Plus, he comes cheap, to the tune of the minimum.

    That's it. That gives me a 2004 Yankee lineup of:

    Castillo- 2B- S
    Jeter- SS- R
    Giambi- DH- L
    Beltran- CF- S
    Posada- C- S
    Matsui- RF- L
    Williams- LF- S
    Mientkiewicz- 1B- L
    Boone- 3B- R

    A rotation of:

    Mussina- R
    Vazquez- R
    Pettite- L
    Contreras- R
    Lieber/Weaver- R

    A bullpen of:

    Rivera- closer
    Karsay- main set-up
    Mike Williams- secondary set-up
    Chris Hammond- Main southpaw
    Heredia- 2nd LOOGY
    Weaver/Lieber- Long relief

    Finally, a bench of:

    1. Seguignol- 1B/OF- S
    2. Delucci- OF- L
    3. Wilson- IF- R
    4. Almonte- MI- R
    5. Greene- C- R

    Now, tell me that's not a good team. Tomorrow the Giants will be taking place in my organizational meetings, so be sure to check that. Plus, this weekend I'll throw some mad rumors I'm hearing onto the site, so keep visiting!

    WTNYOctober 29, 2003
    Organizational Meeting: Yankees
    By Bryan Smith

    Today I'll move along in my organizational rankings, going to the New York Yankees. The format has changed for today, as two Yankee bloggers (Larry Mahnken from the Replacement Level Yankee Blog and Alex Belth from Bronx Banter) take their swings at my questions. My answers won't appear until tomorrow, so, no great loss for the reader. Enjoy...

    1) It's no secret the Yankees will target right field in the offseason, as a Delucci/Rivera platoon isn't Yankeesque. Instead, the Boss is left to decide between Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield. Some reports say Steinbrenner prefers Sheffield, do you agree and why?

    Alex Belth- Sheffield is definitely George's kind of guy and vice versa. Sheff is high maintenance but a borderline Hall of Famer. He would fit with the Yankees for three seasons I think. If he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe that he wouldn't be very helpful for a winning team. If he plays in a losing situation, he could be an issue.

    But if you want the better player--his back injury this past season notwithstanding---Vlad is the way to go. He's so young, and so strong and so good. People talk about how shy Guerrero is and how that wouldn't fit in here in New York. But again, if he stayed healthy, he would be a monster, because the guy doesn't have a conscience and he's just too good to suck.

    I don't know if you can go wrong with either guy, except I worry about Sheffield staying healthy. Because if he gets hurt, it's like a super charged version of Danny Tartabull all over again. Personally, Vlad is my favorite player in the National League--I own a Vladi jersey and t-shirt--so I would be ecstatic if he came to play in New York. But as a baseball fan, I feel like it would be too much for the Yanks to have him. Let a weird guy like Vlad go to the Padres, or stay with the Expos.

    Larry Mahnken- If the Yankees are going to target right field instead of moving Matsui to right, Bernie to left and getting a centerfielder, I'd prefer Guerrero over Sheffield. Sheffield is a better hitter than Guerrero right now, but Vlad is a better fielder and is seven years younger. They'll likely only lock up Sheffield for three or four seasons, and he shouldn't decline much in that time--but then, he might collapse. Vlad is a safer bet over the next few years, fits the Yankees' needs better, and will be productive longer. I'd go with Vlad.

    2) The Yankees largest problems lie in defense and lineup construction. Can anything be done in the next six months to amend defensive defiencies? Will Torre ever realize Soriano isn't a leadoff hitter? What would you do with the defense and the lineup?

    LM- First of all, let's specify where the Yankees' defensive problems are: up the middle. Aaron Boone is a pretty good third baseman, Nick Johnson is a good first baseman, Hideki Matsui is a pretty good left fielder, and whomever they stick in right is going to be okay. The weaknesses they have, unfortunately, are with the guys who have to cover the most ground: Bernie Williams, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter. Bernie was never a great defensive player, he never took good routes to the ball or got a good jump, but he was very fast, and could make up for his mistakes with his speed, and was a good fielder. Now that he's slowed down, his defense is terrible, and any balls hit in the gaps are likely to fall in. Outs become hits, and singles become doubles.

    When he filled in for Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui did an adequate job. He's not a very good center fielder, but he's at least as good getting to balls as Bernie Williams, and he has a stronger arm, making him a better choice for center. If the Yankees sign a right fielder, swapping Bernie and Godzilla would be an improvement in the outfield, though it still wouldn't make them good, or even average. If they were to move Matsui to right, Bernie to left, and bring in a ballhawk center fielder like Mike Cameron or Carlos Beltran, they would probably have at least an average defense.

    Derek Jeter is a horrid shortstop, everyone in the sabermetric community has long acknowledged that, watching him play shortstop would make you think that he had already retired and they had put his monument at shortstop. Problem is, either the Yankees don't know that, or they have no intention of ever doing anything about it. He's gonna be a shortstop until he decides that he's not going to be a shortstop.

    If the Yankees had a good defensive second baseman, it wouldn't be so much a problem. Unfortunately, Alfonso Soriano is not a good defensive second baseman. He's not horrible, nowhere near as bad as Jeter--he's pretty decent going to his left. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much range to his right, and he's horrible at fielding the ball backhanded. So the Yankees have two middle infielders who can't go up the middle--you can see the problem here. Probably the most oft repeated phrase on Yankees' broadcasts is "ground ball up the middle, through to centerfield for a base hit."

    So, what can the Yankees do about this? Well, they could move Soriano out to centerfield, something that the New York media is talking about. There are several problems with this strategy: it makes Soriano a less valuable player, he might be a terrible defensive outfielder, and the player who replaces him will be a lesser offensive player than Soriano, too. Another option is to trade Soriano, but the decrease in the Yankees' offense at second base would probably be far more than the increase in defense. And, of course, the Yankees aren't going to get equal value in a trade for Soriano anymore, now that he's about to become expensive through arbitration. Basically, the Yankees' options are either to become a worse team overall, or accept that they have a massive hole in the middle of their infield. The defense will cost them a few games, and might cost them a postseason series, but over the course of the season, the offense will win more games than the defense loses. Considering that Boston will likely be better, and Toronto is on the rise, I don't think that the Yankees can afford to drop any games in the standings, and so while they can make a move to improve the outfield defense, I think they'll just have to accept their crappy infield defense for a few years.

    The best thing they can do is stay away from pitchers like David Wells and Jeff Weaver, and build a pitching staff around High-K pitchers like Mussina, Contreras and Pettitte--to keep the ball away from the defense.
    As for the lineup, I doubt that Torre will ever accept that Soriano is the worst choice he has for batting leadoff. He believes that the first run of the game is more important than the second or third run, and that speed is a vital asset at the top of the lineup, neither of which are true. Speed is a good thing to have at the top of the lineup, to avoid double plays, but it can be utilized better at the bottom of the lineup, where the batters behind you are less likely to hit HRs and doubles, so stealing a base can create more runs for you. Using some of the rationale put forward by Joe Sheehan in a recent article, here's my ideal lineup, using the 2003 World Series roster:

    R - Jeter (gets on base, has good speed, a little power but not enough to bat third, and hits too many ground balls to hit second)
    S - Williams (Again, gets on base, doesn't have the power any more to bat cleanup, hits fly balls, which avoids DPs, switch hitter makes LOOGYs less effective)
    L - Giambi (The best hitter on the team)
    S - Posada (Good OBP, good power, but not as good as Giambi, switch hitter between lefties)
    L - Johnson (Best OBP on team, fifth spot in order leads off innings second most on team after leadoff, good power to take care of first four batters' leavings)
    R - Soriano (Good power to clear bases after high-OBP guys have batted, good speed avoids DPs with Johnson ahead of him and ground-ball hitting Matsui behind him, can steal bases to increase scoring chances with weaker hitters at bottom of lineup)
    L - Matsui (Hits a lot of ground balls, so you'd want to bat him behind someone with good speed so you can execute a lot of hit and runs. Posada is about the worst guy to bat him behind)
    R - Boone (Possibly the weakest hitting player on the team, but righty bat gets LOOGYs out after one batter)
    L - Garcia (Adequate hitter against righties, useless against lefties, platoon partner Rivera is opposite)

    AB- I agree with the majority of observers who think that Soriano is ill-suited for the lead off spot. I think hitting him somewhere 6-9 would be a place to start. I don't know what will make the kid a better fielder. I don't know if it's just a matter of concentration, effort and dedication on his part. He hasn't improved enough defensively. But there is no telling that he'd be a better out fielder than he is at second. Sure, he'd be able to use his speed, but who knows if he's got any instinct for it.

    I think the idea of moving Soriano is an attractive one. Even though he had a miserable playoff, he is still young and dazzlingly talented. Most importantly, he isn't making tons of money, so he is movable. He certainly could be traded for a pitcher or a stellar infielder.

    I would move Boone anyway you could, and personally, I would consider trying Jeter out at third. I know this would never happen with Torre around, but it would be interesting to see what would happen. I've heard people say that Jeter wouldn't be right for the hot corner, and other people who just think he should play anywhere but short. I would like to think of him in the mold of Robin Yount. Actually, with all the talk of Sori moving to center, wouldn't Jeter make a decent left fielder?

    But then his numbers would be left fielder's numbers. And without much pop. Still, Chipper made the move. We'll sure see how much of a team guy Mr. Jeter is the day he's faced with moving from short. I would give it three to four seasons, depending on how quickly his skills decline.

    3) Roger Clemens and David Wells won't be Yankees for much longer The team has Mussina, Contreras, and Jon Lieber penciled in for the rotation. How important is it to re-sign homegrown Andy Pettite? Can you give Jeff Weaver the 5th spot? If no, who are you targeting to round out the rotation, and what would you do with Weaver?

    AB- I think they are in a position where they have to sign Pettitte. The beauty part for Andy is he's got the team by the balls. Sometimes players get lucky, and Pettitte---like Pudge Rodriguez---are the Grand Prize Winners this year. Last season Pettitte was terrific but sidelines with injuries. He went into the final year of his contract earning a whopping $11.5 million with a lot to prove. So he goes out and wins 20 games and is stellar in the playoffs and now the Yankees have to sign him or they look like schmucks. Pettitte has actually earned himself a bloated, handsome deal. I see the Yanks over paying to keep him. I don't know if that would be wise---to wildly over pay for Andy Pettitte--but with no other left-hander on the staff, it appears a likely scenario. And after all, this is the Yankees. They can afford it. I'm interested to see how much of Pettitte's decision is based on Mel Stottlemyre's future. Pettitte sure is in the driver's seat here. The bottom line is, unless he goes to a winning situation, Andy will regret ever leaving the Yankees.

    LM- Well, I think Wells might be back next year, although his back injury might have cost them the World Series. They won't pick up his option, but I think Steinbrenner might sign him again, if only to annoy Torre. It is vital to re-sign Andy Pettitte. A rotation of Mussina, Contreras, Lieber, Weaver and DePaula would be great for most teams, and was pretty similar to what Boston threw out there this year, but the Yankees are a team that is focused solely on postseason success, and while the playoffs are largely luck, one of the things you can do to increase your chances of winning is to have three or four strong starters, the stronger the better. Pettitte is a pitcher who isn't hurt tremendously by the Yankees' defense, and the Yankees also can't afford to let him go to Boston.
    I think the Yankees should take another chance with Weaver--though he shouldn't have been on the postseason roster, or even pitching at all in September. He's a good pitcher, although one who is exceptionally susceptible to getting hurt by the Yankees' defense. Early in the season, he was let down by the bullpen, defense, and just plain bad luck, but as he grew more frustrated, he made more bad pitches and started getting genuinely hammered. I think he can be a good pitcher for the Yankees, though never an ace. They would have been better off with Lilly in the rotation. Keep Weaver, unless you get a really good offer, and keep him the 5th starter.

    I think that the Yankees should also be looking for another starters, I expect nothing out of Lieber. Colon and Millwood might seem excessive, but they really are replacing Roger Clemens. Both appear similar to me, Millwood is about a year and a half younger, but then, Will Carroll is reporting that Millwood is going back to Atlanta (What a steal! They get Millwood AND Estrada, and all they have to give up is a first round draft pick! WOW!)
    So, saying they re-sign Pettitte and sign Colon (which, if Millwood goes to Atlanta, leaves Boston with nobody, which would be HUGE), the Yankees have this rotation:

    Mussina
    Colon
    Pettitte
    Contreras
    Weaver

    If the Yankees re-sign Wells and move Weaver, then stick him in the fourth spot, because Torre won't realize what he's got in Contreras until June or July. That's a damn good rotaton. If the Yankees don't bring in a free agent pitcher, or let Pettitte walk, then I think that DePaula will get a shot at the rotation in March, though I don't think he'll make the cut, or stick very long if he does.

    4) Alfonso Soriano is one of the hottest/coldest players in the Majors today. In April and September he hit .370 and .348 respectively, while in May and July he hit .229 and .240. 18 of his 38 home runs came in the first and last months of the season. Does this concern you, and do you believe the team should lock him up now, or let him go to arbitration the next few years?

    LM- I know that you should look at what a player can do instead of what he can't do, so here goes:

    Alfonso Soriano can steal bases with a high rate of success.
    Alfonso Soriano can hit a lot of Home Runs.
    Alfonso Soriano can get a hit on a high percentage of the balls he puts in play.
    What he can't do is look for a good pitch to hit, lay off breaking pitches off the plate or high fastballs, or play defense. Those first two are what concern me most, and are the reason for his streakiness.

    Maybe Soriano will develop some plate discipline--I doubt it. Maybe he'll sustain this current level his entire career, which would make him worth having on the team. But he's also a huge risk to drop off suddenly, so I'd let him go to arbitration, which takes the risk that if he improves, you'll have to pay a lot more money to lock him up, but if he falls off, you're not stuck with him.

    The player I think they should lock up through arbitration and well beyond is Nick Johnson. The only concern with Johnson is injuries, if he stays healthy, I think he'll be one of the top five hitters in baseball in three years. Thing is, few people appreciate how good he is right now, and you can probably lock him up long-term cheaply, and have an elite hitter on your team for years to come for less than ten million dollars a year.

    AB- I like Soriano a lot. He is an exciting kid to watch. But I also believe in getting rid of guys too early rather than too late. And I'd like to see some of Jeter's persistence and drive in Soriano. I'm happy either way, but if he stays, I expect more out of the guy. And I don't mean homers either. I mean he should stop trying to be Dave Kingman.

    5) One achilles heel for the Yankees in 2003 was middle relief. The team will have Steve Karsay and Chris Hammond back next year. Would you pick up the options on Antonio Osuna and Gabe White? And whom else would you target on the market?

    AB- Osuna is gone. And whatever. He wasn't great. I don't know about Gabe White. I wouldn't be terribly upset to see him back, but I'm not wed to him by any means. I think the guy Hasegawa is the most attractive reliever on the market for the Yankees, even if LaTroy Hawkins is getting more press. Hawkins is another kind of guy that George would wildly over pay. Much as he did with Steve Karsay, even though that was a different market.

    The Yanks have to develop or acquire a nasty left hander for the pen too I think. Nellie won't be back. No great loss.

    LM- Well, a large part of the Yankees' middle relief problems last season was Juan Acevedo, who made their bullpen look far worse than it was. It wasn't a good 'pen, but after the trade deadline, it started to come together, and regardless what the media said, they had a good bullpen going into the playoffs--just not a great one.

    Hammond pitched well this season, but Torre stopped using him in September, and didn't use him in the playoffs until Game 5 of the World Series, where he was not sharp. If Torre actually uses him in 2004, he'll be an asset.
    I don't know if I'd pick up White's option, that is pretty hefty for a setup man, but I would try very hard to bring him back. He's a good relief pitcher, a lefty who can get out righties, and he's probably the only good thing to come out of the Boone trade.

    Heredia pitched well, and he's picked up his half of the mutual option. I think I'd probably pick up the team half, too. It's pricy for a LOOGY, but Torre seemed to trust him, and that's an important asset for a Yankees' releiver.
    I'd let Nelson go, and I'd bring up Colter Bean, who it would seem is capable of being a Chad Bradford type pitcher. I wouldn't really look to the free agent market to get relief help. Rivera, Karsay, White and Hammond looks pretty good to me.

    6) Who from the coaching staff do you expect back next year? Is there any coach, other than Torre, that would really be a significant loss for this franchise? Would Brian Cashman be a loss?

    LM- Well, Zimmer is already gone, no loss there. Mel Stottlemyre is deciding whether or not to come back. He's good with veteran pitchers, but he didn't do much to help Jeff Weaver this season. If he wants to come back, I'd bring him back. Rick Down is gone, likely as the scapegoat for the Yankees' postseason offensive struggles, but he should be the scapegoat for Alfonso Soriano. Willie Randolph and Lee Mazzilli are likely staying, unless they get managerial offers somewhere.

    Brian Cashman is, I think, a good GM, but he's not running to show by himself. Steinbrenner also seeks input from Randy Levine (who I think knows nothing about baseball) and Gene Michael (who knows a lot), as well as a bunch of other advisors, then makes the decisions himself, and has Cashman implement them. It's very much corporate, and it prevents the Yankees from doing anything "new". They'll always settle for the mediocre player who they at least know is going to be mediocre rather than the unknown player who might be great, but hasn't proven himself either way.

    Would he be a loss? Yeah, but not a huge one. He doesn't have enough control as it is, and if he were moved out, it wouldn't change the direction of the team much.

    AB- I think Willie will be back and Torre will be back. Maz is probably gone, Down is gone, Zim is gone. Stot will be back I think. Maybe not. If George gets his way, he'll lure Mattingly back to be the hitting coach, and that would be boffo for him. I would love to see the Yankees make a run at Rick Peterson, even though they may be too late--and ultimately too conservative---to appreciate what Peterson could do for their staff.

    Peterson is the kind of guy I'd like to see get a hold of Jeff Weaver. I would assume Weaver will be moved at some point. He's still a qualtity arm. Probably destined to pitch well at some point in his career. It doesn't look like that can happen for him in New York. He's obstinant. The guy just doesn't listen. But he can turn it around if he wants to---but it'll take having an work ethic like Roy Halladay to do it. I wouldn't bank on his "make up" that's for sure.

    Cashman will stay and get older and more bent. George will be all over him, but he'll also give Cash the resources to figure it all out too. The Yankees could learn from the aquisitions that Boston made last year---picking up second tier players like Millar, Ortiz, Mueller, and Walker, and making them all part of the puzzle. Boston's offense was more like the Yankees O of '96-2000 than the current Yankee team was. (Of course you'd have to add the mid-90s Indians to those Yankee clubs to equal Boston's 2003 team.)

    I think Cashman is great, and have complete faith in his ability to build a winning team. The only question is, can George keep from meddling and making moves like Mondesi and Aaron Boone?

    7) What kind of numbers do you expect from Jose Contreras, Jon Lieber, and Nick Johnson in 2004?

    AB- If Contreras is healthy and can give the Yankees 200+ innings, that would be fantastic. I think he'd be good too. ERA in the high 3,s-to mid 4s. Lots of strikeouts. Some dominating games mixed in there. 15 game winner easily if he gets the run support.

    LM- I think Contreras will win 15 games, have an ERA around 3.50, strike out 200 men, and make the All-Star team. I expect nothing out of Lieber. I expect Nick Johnson to hit .300, hit 25 HRs, have a .450 OBP, and cure cancer.

    8) Create a step-by-step offseason to-do list.

    LM- What I would do is:
    1. Re-sign Andy Pettitte
    2. Sign Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, or Mike Cameron (in that order)
    3. Sign Kevin Millwood or Bartolo Colon (in that order)
    4. If step two fails, try to trade for Carlos Beltran, but without giving up Johnson
    5. Re-sign Gabe White, pick up the option on Heredia
    6. Improve the bench: get a backup catcher who can hit some, a backup infielder who can field some, a good defensive replacement center fielder, and a real pinch hitter (NOT Ruben Sierra)

    AB- a. Making pitching decisions. Sign Pettitte, trade Weaver for another front line starter.
    b. Figure out the outfield. Move Bernie to left, and then either Sori to center and Matsui to right, or Matsui to center and Vlad or Sheff to right. Or Maybe get another center fielder and move Matsui to right.
    c. Sign Hasegawa.
    d. Figure out third base and second base. Move Aaron Boone.
    d. Figure out if you want to trade Nick Johnson.
    e. Get a left-hander in the pen.
    f. Sign coaches. (This one might have to be earlier, but whatever.)

    Tomorrow I will answer all of the questions, and look at how the media is dealing with this situation. New York is always the most fun to analyze, because every beat reporter, every columnist, every writer in the world has an opinion on this issue. Damn Yankees.

    WTNYOctober 28, 2003
    Free Agents like crazy
    By Bryan Smith

    Busy day in the Major Leagues, as rumors are flying and free agents are filing. Bartolo Colon rejected a 3-year, $36M offer from the White Sox, obviously delusional on what the current market will provide him. And staying in Chicago, Frank Thomas and Sammy Sosa have a week to decide on their futures, after that, their respective club will decide instead.

    If you're yet to find a source with all the Major League free agents, ESPN has provided the best I've found. In today's article I'll write about my top all-free agent teams, at the Major and minor league level. So, if you need a minor league free agent list, head over to Baseball America. And over the next few months my site should be a transactional analysis haven, and that begins today with Grady Little's hiring and some more odds and ends.

    Now to the free agents, beginning with my first all-free agent team at the Major League level:

    C- Pudge Rodriguez- Marlin for sure in 2004
    1B- Scott Spiezio- Weakest 1B class in recent memory
    2B- Luis Castillo- Plenty of options available
    SS- Miguel Tejada- Great road numbers, not getting enough press
    3B- Robin Ventura- Talk about a weak class
    LF- Carl Everett- Good left-handed bat, can also play center
    CF- Mike Cameron- Another player with great road numbers
    RF- Vladimir Guerrero- Trails only A-Rod and Prior in best young player rank
    DH- Frank Thomas- Still a .400 OBP and 40HR threat
    SP- Kevin Millwood- Consistent pitcher with ace-like performance
    SP- Bartolo Colon- Eats innings like he does food
    SP- Greg Maddux- Valuable in more ways than his pitching
    MR- Shigetoshi Hasegawa- Can fill every role imaginable in 'pen
    SU- Tom Gordon- Stuff finally came back, after long hiatus
    CL- Keith Foulke- Oakland just waiting to get draft compensation

    That obviously proves this isn't a strong year, especially on the infield corners. But, I would say it's a much deeper class than past seasons, which makes an honorable mention team worth noting:

    C- Javy Lopez- Who woulda thought?
    1B- Eric Karros- Will slug left-handers in platoon, provides good D
    2B- Todd Walker- Postseason heroics will increase interest
    SS- Kaz Matsui- And you thought Hideki has doubles power?
    3B- Joe Randa- Consistent player that will hardly ever hurt you
    LF- Royals LF Rondell White and Raul Ibanez
    CF- Kenny Lofton- Wins wherever he goes
    RF- Gary Sheffield- Second-best free agent
    DH- Rafeal Palmiero- Nearing his end
    SP- Andy Pettite- Yankees must re-sign homegrown stud
    SP- Sidney Ponson- 2003 breakout star will get huge interest
    SP- Miguel Batista- Gives manager so many options
    MR- Tim Worrell- Still in middle relief, even after 38 saves
    SU- LaTroy Hawkins- Yankees likely already calling
    CL- Eddie Guardado- Who wouldn't want Everyday Eddie?

    Players have 15 days following the World Series to file, and on that date I will give a much more detailed analysis of the free agent class, full o' predictions. So, keep coming back.

    One of the least publicized things in baseball are minor league free agents, likely because there are about 600 available every offseason. But players seep through the cracks, and every season more players make spending a quick buck on a minor leaguer worth every penny. Some of 2003's best:

    1. Jeremi Gonzalez- Tampa Bay success story after 25IP in 1999-2002
    2. Billy McMillon- Averages over .300 in AAA for four straight seasons before 2003
    3. Luis Ayala- 10-game winner had thrown 7.2 innings in 2002, Mexico League vet
    4. Ryan Freel- Good K/BB rates and versatility gave infielder 137AB
    5. Amaury Telemaco- Once had a lot of promise, but nothing in 2002
    6. Adam Melhuse- AAA vet will be Oakland back-up catcher next season

    After seeing that, I have drawn two conclusions about what to look for in minor league free agents. First, a good indicator for success are pitchers who once had hype, but injuries had made them fall off the map. Hitters need a good track record of success, with walk rates as a key indicator. And, all players chosen should be entering their peak seasons.

    So, here are 10 minor league free agents who bear watching in the offseason:

    1. Justin Thompson- Former 15-game winner was in NWL this season
    2. Ryan Kohlmeier- Ex-Oriole closer has been improving in AAA last two seasons
    3. Donnie Bridges- Former Expo top prospect had good season in AA
    4. Ed Yarnall- Once Yankee southpaw came back from Japan in 2003
    5. Corey Thurman- Blue Jays Rule V pick with tons of potential
    6. Trent Durrington- Utility player, .824OPS in AAA with 35 steals
    7. Phil Hiatt- Utility infielder, proven AAA record, lacks plate discipline
    8. Midre Cummings- No worse than any fourth outfielder in baseball
    9. Edwards Guzman- Got time in Montreal, but could be '04 Melhuse
    10. Olmedo Saenz- Gamble, but once was a good player for A's

    Moving onto transaction analysis, where I have five moves to examine:

    1- Red Sox fire Grady Little- I'm not supporting this move as much as Red Sox fans are. Little took this team far, and although his managing cost the Red Sox the World Series, let's not forget the World Series. And secondly, who else is there to replace Little next season? Don Zimmer would be my choice, just for the pure hilarity of it all. But whomever Theo Epstein comes up with will likely be an interesting choice.
    2- Reds name Dave O'Brien GM- I'm a little skeptical, since O'Brien hasn't exactly been spending time in baseball's best organization, the Texas Rangers. I did predict he would be here, but I guarantee a long tenure. I see the Reds as a pretty bad team, with enough young studs to tempt the city for awhile. Losing Carl Lindner should be priority number one.
    3- Greg Myers was re-signed to a one-year, 900K deal in Toronto- Well, there goes the 3rd best catcher available. Myers would have attracted numerous offers, since he is a veteran catcher who can hit right-handers and handle pitchers well. The Blue Jays will use him and Kevin Cash next season, as they prepare for the arrival of Guillermo Quiroz.
    4- Brewers land first minor league free agent, Travis Phelps- Phelps comes out of the Braves system, and had a little success in AAA this season: 9-5, 3.47ERA, 77H/93.1IP, 91K/38BB. He has a chance of making the Brew middle relief corps next season, but won't find himself on a top minor league free agent acquisition list next year.
    5- Rangers sign Billy Sylvester- Although Phelps won't be a big name, Sylvester has the stuff to do it. He has had amazing H/9 ratios as he's gone up the Atlanta pipeline, but has always walked too many guys. Have Orel Hershiser decrease his walk numbers, and the Rangers could have walked right into a solid set-up man for 2004.

    Finally, let me mention I've added two new links to my left, Seth Speaks and Jeremy Heit's blog. Definitely go check those blogs out, as they give good output very regularly. I'll have my Yankees organizational meeting tomorrow, and if any of you missed the Atlanta one yesterday, the link is here.

    WTNYOctober 27, 2003
    Organizational Meetings: Atlanta Braves
    By Bryan Smith

    Today I will begin my "organizational meetings" with the Atlanta Braves. I asked Brad Dowdy of No Pepper 9 questions about the Braves. I also give shorter answers to the same questions. The rest of the week will also likely have the Yankees and Giants. Enjoy...

    1) Greg Maddux is likely to leave the Braves this offseason, opening a big hole in the rotation. With a rotation of non-power pitchers, would you move John Smoltz back to the rotation, why or why not? And if not, which power pitcher would you target?

    No Pepper- I'm of the opinion that John Smoltz should continue to serve as the Braves closer. With his past and present arm problems, I don't see how he could stay healthy for the 180-200 innings that would be required of him. In the closers role, he is an elite player, and I would rather see him throw 75-85 high leverage innings than risk losing him for the season - and possibly career - if he goes back to starting. There is one question that I do not know the answer to - is there more stress on Smoltz's arm as a reliever, as opposed to being a starter? Meaning, is it tougher for him to get up and down in the bullpen and make 3-4 appearances a week, as opposed to starting every 5th day? If he were to start, would he work in the 93-94 MPH range with the fastball, instead of 97-98 when he comes in to shut the door? The only way I would be for him starting again would be if it is actually less stressful on his arm, which I don't think will be the case. Another issue that may keep Smoltz from returning to the rotation is money. Contained in his contract is a provision which pays him an extra $100,000 per start. The now budget conscious Braves front office may have a thing or two to say about him starting if it is going to add another $3 million to the payroll.

    As far as what pitchers I would target, I think bringing back Kevin Millwood would be the best bet. Javier Vazquez is clearly the superior pitcher to Millwood in my mind, but the Braves, and I imagine other teams, will have a tough time dealing with the MLB Expos. Not to mention the fact that Expos GM Omar Minaya is interviewing for other GM openings as we speak. There may not be anyone in the Montreal front office that will be allowed to swing a deal for the non-free agent Vazquez. Millwood is the next best fit, and he is available. He has a proven track record, knows the team and city, the organization is comfortable with him, and he still has a home in the Atlanta suburbs. Despite the early season no-hitter, Millwood had a rough second half, keeping him within the Braves price range, but I'm sure his agent, Scott Boras, will have something to say about that. After Millwood, there aren't too many starters that are worth shelling out for. Colon's name is rarely mentioned, and Pettitte would be nice but we already have two other left-handed starters. After that group, it's really a crap shoot. I want no part of Sidney Ponson, who I was against trying to trade for last season. Miguel Batista and Carl Pavano would be decent middle of the rotation fall back guys, but I really don't want to see it get down to that point. The Braves really need a #1 caliber pitcher, and I think Millwood is it.

    WTNY- Smoltz has stated that going under the knife one more time will result in his retirement. Asking 150+ innings from him substantially increases the probability Smoltz doesn't pitch in 2005. As a leader and a closer, he is invaluable to the franchise. Furthermore, it would likely cost an equal amount to rebuild a bullpen after Smoltz than it would to sign starting pitching.

    There aren't a lot of power pitchers available this offseason, so the Braves have limited options. Javier Vazquez could be acquired in a trade, but I'm not sure his price tag (both $ and players) will equal his output. Sidney Ponson is available, but he's no sure thing, and not the type of pitcher needed. Basically, I present the Braves with two options: Kevin Millwood and Bartolo Colon. Both will receive interest from their 2003 team, but Colon's White Sox have more interest than the Phillies. Millwood's return to Atlanta would present an interesting story, and end the bashing Scheurholtz got for his trade in the first place. I also don't think it's a horrible idea to go after cheaper options, most notably Carl Pavano.

    2) Paul Byrd will be back next season, after missing 2003 with an arm injury. What can you expect from him in 2004? Can he be the 2004 version of Shane Reynolds, or would you rather go with a rookie like Andy Pratt or Bubba Nelson?

    NP- Paul Byrd will be back next year, but maybe not until after the All-Star break. So, if the Braves don't add another starter in the offseason, we may be looking at possibly 2 young/rookie starters instead of the likely one. That one could come from a long list of players: Jason Marquis, Jung Bong, and Trey Hodges - all of who spent time in the Atlanta bullpen last season, or Andy Pratt, Bubba Nelson, Adam Wainwright, and Brett Evert - each of whom would come from the minors. Once Byrd makes it back, I imagine he will be better than Reynolds was in 2003, but that isn't saying much. Anything better than a 4.25 ERA will be a bonus.

    As for who will fill the 5th (and possibly 4th) starter role until Byrd returns - I think it will go to one of the minor leaguers. Most Atlanta fans want to see Wainwright, but I'd like to see him spend most of the year in AAA Richmond, with a possible late season call up. He is currently getting shelled pitching for Team USA in the AFL, and has a tendency to wear down late in the season, so another year under his belt would serve him well. Pratt and Nelson are just about ready, with Evert having an outside shot. I've stated in a couple of places that I think Pratt might get the nod with a good spring, and he is performing well so far in the Team USA trials.

    WTNY- I wouldn't expect a lot from Byrd in 2004, as his health will always be a risk. His upside might be as a middle reliever in the bullpen, or replacing one of the starters. I think it is a better option to go with either a rookie, or a very cheap pick-up. Hold a competition between Pratt, Bubba Nelson, and some veterans that you can find around. John Burkett, Scott Erickson, Jason Bere are all examples of starters whom will have a hard time finding a job, but would supply solid innings. Throw Shane into that same category.

    3) A huge hole for the Braves in 2003 was set-up relief, getting the ball to Smoltz. What are your thoughts on the three that ended the year doing it, Jaret Wright, Will Cunnane, and Kent Mercker? Do you believe they should be retained next year? What about Roberto Hernandez and Ray King? Who else would fill your bullpen?

    NP- From day 1 through the playoffs, the 2003 bullpen was a problem. I never had to worry about running out of material for my blog. Heck, Roberto Hernandez even had his own category! Jaret Wright impressed me enough that I would offer him a deal for 2004, and let him set up for Smoltz. Same thing goes for Will Cunnane. I think Mercker will look elsewhere, and possibly end up back in Cincinnati. Ray King wasn't terrible, except with runners on base (.319 OPP AVG with runners on, .131 AVG without), but I imagine the Braves will pick up his $1 million club option, which is a reasonable sum. The Roberto Hernandez era should come to a crashing halt, as there is no way he gets resigned. Hopefully Darren Holmes won't be either, and I could go either way on Kevin Gryboski. As long as he is used strictly in situations where the Braves need to induce a double play, I'm fine. Asking him to start - and complete - a full inning is asking for trouble. The remainder of the bullpen should consist of at least two of the following: Jason Marquis, Jung Bong, Trey Hodges, Brett Evert, Bubba Nelson. The rest will make up part of the starting staff in Richmond.

    WTNY- Entrusting Mazzone with the 2004 bullpen would be an interesting option. That would mean giving him players like Wright and Cunnane before Smoltz, and letting him go to work. Wright was hitting 96 in the playoffs, which gives him a whole lot of upside. Cunnane threw 20 solid innings, so he has made his case to be a set-up man next season. I'm not a big fan of Hernandez, Darren Holmes, Ray King, or Kevin Gryboski, and could see all of them leaving. Mercker was a solid veteran influence that would compliment with Smoltz well. After years of Maddux and Glavine, the Braves must have good advice readily available from veteran players, Mercker would give that.

    Jason Marquis, Troy Hodges, and Jung Bong all give the Braves options as well. Marquis has the most upside, but also the most trade value. I think Hodges and Bong could both improve given the chance in 2004, as long as Mazzone lowers those BB/9 ratios. Rookies Andy Pratt and Bubba Nelson could fill those holes if needed, as both have relief experience. Problem is, they both have potential as starters. I really like Buddy Hernandez, whom didn't make the A's after being a Rule V pick, but had these numbers at AAA: 65H/71IP 82K/31BB.

    4) The Braves will have three holes due to free agency departures, at catcher, first base, and third. If needed, the team could go with youngsters Johnny Estrada, Adam LaRoche, and Mark DeRosa. Which of these players would you trust with 400-500 at-bats, and whom wouldn't you? Why or why not? Do you believe any of the veterans (Lopez, Castillo, Franco, Fick) should be retained?

    NP- This is a big question, so let's start with the easiest decision first, and go from there. Give Adam LaRoche the 1B job, and let Robert Fick go. LaRoche has proven he is ready for his shot with a big 2003 split between AAA and AA (combined .290, 20 HR, 33 2B). LaRoche also provides Gold Glove caliber defense according to those who have seen him play. Worst case scenario, have LaRoche platoon with ageless wonder Julio Franco. I heaped on the praise of Robert Fick in the first half of the season (.296 AVG/.354 OBP/.481 SLG), but his second half slump (.229/.307/.325), and subsequent postseason hatchet job, have soured many Braves fans on Mr. Fick.

    The third base job should go to Mark DeRosa, but this is one area where John Schuerholz may go out and overpay for a "proven veteran". Someone like Vinny Castilla or Tony Batista, neither of whom do I want anything to do with. Andy Marte, my #1 overall Braves prospect, and the #1 3B prospect in the minor leagues according to Baseball America, is two years away, or less, from taking over at the hot corner. If DeRosa hits .280 with 15 homers and keeps the spot warm for Marte, I would be very pleased. I'd rather allocate the money saved to other areas.

    Javy Lopez, Johnny Estrada - what to do with the catching situation? I honestly do not have a good answer. I'm not a big Estrada fan, mostly from an offensive standpoint. In his age 27 year, he posted career numbers in AAA (.328 AVG/.393 OBP/.494 SLG), and that's what bothers me. I'm not a major league equivalent guru, but he looks like a .270, 10 HR major league hitter to me, which is BIG drop-off from Lopez (I know, master of the obvious). But Lopez, who put together one of the greatest hitting seasons ever by a catcher, may have priced himself right out of the Braves plans. I think retaining him is a 50/50 propositon at best right now for the front office, and is not a priority. A lot will depend on other offseason moves, since a backup plan is already in place. My gut tells me he is gone, and I'd rather him be gone than overpaid.

    WTNY- Here's a look at 2 catchers in AAA:
    Player 1: .335-19-72 28 2B 29BB/22K in 373AB
    Player 2: .328-10-66 29 2B 30BB/30K in 354AB

    The first player is Tampa Bay catcher Toby Hall, whom won the 2001 International League MVP with those numbers. The second player in Johnny Estrada, the switch-hitting catcher John Scheurholtz acquired for Kevin Millwood. Hall's 2003 numbers (.253/.295/.380) are likely indicative of what Estrada would produce in the Majors. Pursuing Javy Lopez is a good idea, but don't considering giving more than two years at $10M.

    At first base, there is two options. The first is to five the job to Adam LaRoche, and bringing Julio Franco back to platoon. My second choice would be to trade for a stud first basemen, which would eliminate the idea of re-signing Sheffield. More on that in question six...

    The hot corner is the most difficult decision. First of all, don't give Vinny Castilla the job. DeRosa would be a good choice, and seems like the kind of player that does well when playing a lot. When he got time this season he produced, but he's no guarantee. Go with him if you're ready for a .750OPS, or sign Robin Ventura, the kind of winner the Braves like, to platoon with him.

    5) In the NLDS, Chipper Jones proved to be a major liability in left. With both infield positions open due to free agency, is it time to move Chipper back onto the diamond? Where should he be playing next year, and what can we expect from him?

    NP- Chipper Jones needs to stay in left field. He's been there for two full seasons now, and wasn't a Gold Glove caliber 3B to begin with, but moving him back and forth every year or two can only be detrimental to his already poor fielding. In 8781.2 career innings at 3B, Jones made 123 errors in 2426 total chances, for a fielding % of .949. In 2825.1 career innings in LF, Jones has 14 errors in 539 chances, for a fielding % of .974. With 3B being a much tougher position to field than LF, I call that about a wash.

    What can we expect from Chipper in 2004? Pretty much what you got from him for the past 8 seasons: somewhere around .300/.400/.550, with 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 runs, and, of course, spotty defense in left. I could envision a scenario where Chipper could move back to third for 2004, but it would be highly unlikely.

    WTNY- Don't move Chipper again. After witnessing Carlos Lee go from one of the worst outfielders in the Majors to average, I think left field is the easiest position on the diamond. Chipper probably wouldn't be very good anywhere, and Ventura, DeRosa, LaRoche, and Franco would all be better defenders on the infield corners. The more time he has in left, the better his defense, and offensive productivity will rise. Chipper's one of the least respected players in the game (along with Magglio Ordonez), and may have already locked up a place in Cooperstown. But after the Cub killing he did in the NLDS, I'm not sure I'll ever like Chipper Jones.

    6) Gary Sheffield will be a free agent, likely courted by Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and the Yankees. Would you throw a lot of money at Sheffield to keep him around, set your priorities on Vlad, or go after a second-tier right fielder like Jose Guillen? Defend your choice.

    NP- Schuerholz has to re-sign Gary Sheffield. As a lead in to question number 9, I think this is offseason priority number one. Of course, Guererro would be great, but there is no way the Braves could afford him. I imagine he will command more than the 6 yr/$85 million deal that Jim Thome signed last winter. Sheffield should go for less money, and fewer years. He is a premiere outfielder and perennial MVP candidate, and there aren't many solid outfield options available after you get past him and Vlad. How this goes will set the tone for the entire offseason.

    WTNY- Scheurholtz needs another big bat, so it's either Sheffield or acquiring someone through a trade. Sheffield would be pricy, likely landing the exact same deal Jim Thome got last year. If you could find another player whom would give similar results at a cheaper price, he'd be a good fit. Oh wait...you can? Yes, Richie Sexson.

    Sexson is the perfect player for the Braves. Relatively speaking, he comes cheap at $8M. This would allow the team to bring Javy Lopez back, as well as a second-tier RF. It would give them extra dollars to attract Kevin Millwood as well. In the deal you could put the two youngsters that lose jobs, Estrada and LaRoche, along with the starter that won't get a spot, Bubba Nelson. That should do it, and the Brewers might eat a million or two also. The Braves then go after a cheaper player with upside, either Guillen, Juan Gonzalez, Raul Mondesi, or Jose Cruz Jr.

    7) The Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested the Braves trade Andruw Jones for Javier Vazquez. Do you agree or disagree? Why? How important is Jones for the Braves?

    NP- As much as I like Vazquez, I would be against trading away Andruw Jones to get him. With the possibility of losing both Sheffield and Lopez, the Braves can't afford to lose any more offense. It also goes without saying that Andruw provides great defense in center - just ask Tom Glavine. There are other free agent pitchers out there that I would prefer to focus on, rather than trading Jones for Vazquez. All of that being said, there is clearly room for improvement in his game. His approach at the plate is borderline criminal in certain situations, and he could benefit by dropping a few lbs. also. But there are no suitable replacements for a guy who is an annual threat to hit 30 homers, drive in 100, score 100, and provide Gold Glove caliber defense in center field.

    WTNY- That would be a horrible trade. Jones value to this team is immense, as he cuts the outfield into a much smaller place than it is. Without Andruw, Chipper's defense would get talked about a lot more, and Braves' pitchers wouldn't succeed as much. The team is loaded with flyballers, and needs Jones. Plus, his bat ain't bad either.

    8) Which Brave players do you expect jumps from next season? Will Mike Hampton continue to improve away from Coors? Will Horacio Ramirez be another Braves great homegrown pitcher?

    NP- So many Braves players had big jumps in 2003, this is a tough one to answer. The two that you mention, Mike Hampton and Horacio Ramirez, both should improve on solid 2003 seasons. Hampton found his old self in the second half of the season, and I was clamoring for him to be the Braves #1 starter in the postseason. Ramirez started out strong, hit a rough patch in the summer, then finished out September (3-0, 2.41 ERA, 33.2 IP) as strong, or stronger, than anyone else on the team. I look for both of these guys to continue to improve in 2004.

    Rafael Furcal had arguably his best season to date in 2003, but he still seemed to fly under the radar, as Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield, and Marcus Giles exploded all around him. He posted career highs in Hits (194), Runs (130), Doubles (35), Triples (10), Home Runs (15), RBI (61), and OPS (.795), and was successful in 25 of 27 stolen base attempts, but was rarely mentioned outside of Braves circles. His 130 runs were the most by a Brave since Dale Murphy scored 131 times in 1983. After all of that, I still think Furcal can improve further in 2004, placing him among the elite shortstops in the game.

    Jason Marquis is another one who I will throw out as a long shot breakout candidate. He could really surprise some people if he could get his head screwed on straight. If the Braves pull of any big trades this offseason, Marquis will be one of the first included, but if he sticks around, I'd like to see him groomed into a dominant setup man. He has been a starter for most of his career, with decidedly mixed results, but I think he has the stuff to shut down the opponent for 1-2 innings at a time, despite a terrible 2003 in the bullpen (6.23 ERA, 30.1 IP). The one thing I am not sure of is his attitude.

    WTNY- Mike Hampton will be this team's ace next season, write that down. He really showed his old stuff and attitude late in the season, and should have the kind of year Darryl Kile did in 2001 (16-11, 3.09ERA). While he's not a great fantasy baseball pitcher, don't be hesitant to make him your third or fourth selection next year. I also love Andy Pratt, whom had a great season in AAA. The last selection would be Jaret Wright, who can go nowhere but up after an abysmal 2003.

    9) Create a step-by-step offseason to-do list for John Scheurholtz.

    NP- Offseason To-Do List for John Schuerholz:
    1. Re-sign Gary Sheffield- This will set the tone for the entire offseason. If Sheff signs, the offense is in good shape, and allows the Braves to insert LaRoche at 1B and DeRosa at 3B, and let Javy walk. This also allows Schuerholz to allocate most of the remaining funds to improving the pitching. If Sheff signs elsewhere, we will might make a play on Lopez (still not sure he would sign, or that it would be the right move), and look at the second tier of outfielders to fill in in RF. I don't see the Braves in the Vlad conversation at all.
    2. Sign a top free agent pitcher - preferably Kevin Millwood. There is a lot to like about bringing him back and making him the Braves #1 starter for the next several years. Vazquez is also a possibility, but I don't see the Braves getting a deal done with the Expos this offseason.
    3. Get the thoughts of starting out of John Smoltz's head. When he is healthy, he is one of the best, if not_the_best, closers in the game. That is irreplaceable. There is no need to go trading for a Billy Wagner, or signing an Eddie Guardado, or the like.
    4. Do not spend $4 mil/yr on the LaTroy Hawkinses of the world for bullpen help. No offense to LaTroy, but the Braves pen will improve via addition by subtraction. Hernandez and Holmes should be gone, along with Mercker. Wright and Cunnane did a good job at the end of last season, and should be brought back. Ray King was decent, and the younger arms (Marquis, Bong, Hodges) are more experienced. Name the bullpen early on in the spring and assign roles: early inning replacement, LOOGY, 7th and 8th inning setup, and stick with it. Too many guys were used in too many different situations last season.
    5. Stay away from overaged/overpriced veterans. There are going to be certain bench, and possibly starting, roles that are going to need to be filled via free agency. I am worried about Schuerholz filling the hole at third by resigning Castilla, or bringing in someone like Batista. Yuck. Give the job to DeRosa, and use the savings elsewhere.
    6. Pull the 5th starter from the minors. We don't need any more Paul Byrd contracts, so let's fill the 5 slot with a guy like Andy Pratt. I think he is ready to make the jump. Ben Kozlowski who?

    My projected 2004 Braves rotation: Kevin Millwood, Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez, Andy Pratt
    My projected 2004 Braves bullpen: John Smoltz (closer), Jaret Wright (main setup), Will Cunnane (secondary setup), Jason Marquis (secondary setup), Ray King (situational), Kevin Gryboski (situational), Jung Bong (situational/spot starter)

    My projected 2004 Braves lineup: C Johnny Estrada, 1B Adam LaRoche, 2B Marcus Giles, 3B Mark DeRosa, SS Rafael Furcal, LF Chipper Jones, CF Andruw Jones, RF Gary Sheffield
    Bench: 1B Julio Franco, 1B/3B Mike Hessman, IF Wilson Betemit/Jesse Garcia, OF Ryan Langerhans, C Free Agent

    WTNY- Here's my list:
    1. Trade Dave LaRoche, Johnny Estrada, and Bubba Nelson to the Milwaukee Brewers for Richie Sexson- Replaces Sheffield's bat in the lineup, and improves defense at first.
    2. Re-sign Javy Lopez, sign Raul Mondesi, and Robin Ventura- Veteran influence is huge, and the lineup might be as potent as in 2003.
    3. Grab Kevin Millwood- There are other options, but Millwood simply makes the most sense in this circumstance. While I believe it, don't count on Hampton to be an ace quite yet.
    4. Keep Kent Mercker, make Andy Pratt 5th starter, then go with youngsters and minor league free agents in bullpen- Mercker is a great LOOGY, Pratt could be great, and bullpens are easy to find. Don't overpay for relievers!

    2003 lineup: SS Rafeal Furcal, 2B Marcus Giles, LF Chipper Jones, 1B Richie Sexson, CF Andruw Jones, C Javy Lopez, RF Raul Mondesi, 3B Ventura/DeRosa
    2003 rotation: Millwood, Hampton, Ortiz, Ramirez, Andy Pratt
    2003 bullpen: Smoltz, Jaret Wright, Cunnane, Mercker, Buddy Hernandez, Jung Bong

    Check back tomorrow for more, and the Yankees meeting should be on Wednesday.

    WTNYOctober 24, 2003
    Who's in Right?
    By Bryan Smith

    Not a lot to say today, other than a World Series note or two. I'll be beginning my organizatinal meetings next week, so definitely check back for that. Onto my thoughts...

    Last night, for the first time in his Major League career, Alfonso Soriano played the outfield. After pinch-hitting in the eighth, Soriano stayed in, playing right field for one inning. Is this forshadowing for next season?

    Bernie Williams had an oft-injured season, and Soriano moving to center is a very realistic possibility. For that to happen, these things would need to happen:
    - Yankees sign a solid RF, either Sheffield or Vlad
    - They trade Nick Johnson for a starter (possibly Vazquez?)
    - Sign Luis Castillo to play second

    The last note is interesting, as Castillo may draw more interest than most free agents. Both New York teams are extremely interested, as is Boston, Chicago, and the Florida Marlins. I've said time and time again the Marlins have to sign him, but can they win a signing battle with some of the highest spending teams in the industry? Probably not.

    On a seperate note, I never mentioned Roger Clemens final start. Clemens may appear in Game 7 (if it gets that far), but after that his career is over. I won't be tuning in to see the 2004 Olympics, so seeing Clemens' last pitches was amazing. He was one of the top three pitchers of this generation, competing only with Greg Maddux, and to a lesser degree, Pedro Martinez.

    The Red Sox should announce some time this week that Grady Little will not manage the team in 2004, which will come as a big surprise. I have no idea who Theo Epstein will target for the job, but my guess is that no manager will be off limits. Boston has a tough road ahead of them, but having Theo always makes them a Wild Card.

    WTNYOctober 23, 2003
    Free Agent Preview: Catchers
    By Bryan Smith

    I probably won't do all these at once, but it was something interesting to write about. At some point I'll preview each position, so you have the low-down on free agents, with another day of predictions.

    One quick note: Jose Cruz Jr.'s option was declined by the Giants yesterday. Let me reiterate that Cruz's actions in the NLDS had a large part in this happening. He was very good for the G-Men in the first half, but literally fell apart. The team may go with prospects Todd Linden and Tony Torcato next season, or re-sign Jeffrey Hammonds.

    World Series note: Ya think Carl Pavano's free agency stock is bullish? HELL YA!

    2003-2004 Top 10 Free Agent Catchers
    1. Pudge Rodriguez
    2003- Pudge had a breakout season in 2003, putting himself into the top echelon of catchers once again. Runners still don't steal against him, and he still has that vicious throw to first. Questions of his bad handling of a pitching staff were answered. He's a little old, as well as a little fragile. But he's a doubles power hitter that is very clutch and can bat anywhere in the lineup. Irreplaceable.
    Suitors- The Marlins are the favorite to sign Pudge, as he truly loved playing in his hometown. New York (Mets) say they are interested, which would indicate Piazza may start playing first base everyday. And if Pudge were to really hit the free agent market, he would get phone calls from Baltimore, the Cubs, and San Diego.

    #2- Javy Lopez
    2003- Javy had a fantastic 2003, setting the record for home runs hit by a catcher. But he hasn't strung two good years together in a long time, and he's one of the most fragile catchers on the list. Catchers are supposed to fall apart at his age, and a extreme drop in power could be foreseen.
    Suitors- Unknown. The Braves will try to re-sign him at their price, but if he doesn't they'll use Johnny Estrada. The same group of teams, the Orioles, Cubs, Padres will call.

    #3- Benito Santiago
    2003- Didn't have quite the season he did in 2002, but is still remarkably resistant to old age. Remember, he'll be 38 next season, and probably will be catching another three years. He's a great leader, and will help with the bat a little bit. His success story won't hurt in bargaining either. This guy is made to go to a winner, so expect a contender to call his number.
    Suitors- This could very well be the Cubs' top choice at catcher. Dusty loved him in San Francisco, and he could split time with Damian Miller well. His age and experience would be good for a still relatively young pitching staff.

    #4- Greg Myers
    2003- Myers is another old catcher whom is resilient, as Myers had one of the leagues' best first halfs this season. He proved he's still capable of being in a platoon role, and could very well be in that kind of situation in 2003.
    Suitors- In the fourth spot, we're already into backups. Myers will either go to a bad team where he'll platoon for the starting spot, or a good team where he won't play that much. The Rangers seem like a good fit, as do the Cubs. I've also heard the Tigers mentioned with his name, although that doesn't make too much sense.

    #5- Brad Ausmus
    2003- While his production increased in the second half, Ausmus isn't one-fourth the offensive player he once was, which wasn't a lot in the first place. He is good behind the plate, a great leader, and gets huge press from how well he handles the pitching staff.
    Suitors- The Astros want him back, to tutor their prospect John Buck, as well as to tutor their young pitchers like Wade Miller and co. The Padres are the only other team I've heard linked to his name. But write this down: Ausmus is an Astro in 2004.

    #6- Brent Mayne
    2003- Mayne started the heavier platoon half for the Royals this season, and held the job the whole year. He didn't embarass himself, but didn't drastically change his fate for 2004. He's a poor man's Greg Myers, and interest in him will show that.
    Suitors- The Royals have already turned him down, so he could go anywhere. Landing on a team like the Giants, whom are going to play Yorvit Torrealba a lot would be a good idea.

    #7- Todd Pratt
    2003- With good catchers in his way (Piazza, Lieberthal), Pratt never gets too many at-bats. But he always produces. Todd is one of the best backup catchers in the league, as he doesn't disgrace himself behind the plate, and hits with power. I could easily argue him into the five spot, as long as he gets less than 200AB.
    Suitors- Who knows. Pratt should find a team where he'll get his 150AB and 10HR. The Red Sox actually make a good fit, yet they seem enfatuated with Doug Mirabelli. I heard the Mets as a rumor, and the Dodgers would make sense.

    #8- Sandy Alomar Jr.
    2003- He's still a leader, although it's foolish to believe he can handle 50G behind the dish. Putting him on a young pitching staff with 100-150AB is the best way to use him, and he'll surprise you every once in awhile.
    Suitors- The White Sox will re-sign him, or he'll start thinking about retirement. Sandy is probably going to coach one day, so it's not bad idea to keep him as a "player-coach" for one season. Miguel Olivo is ready for 400AB, so the ChiSox really do seem like a perfect fit.

    Peace..

    WTNYOctober 22, 2003
    What? Baseball is still being played?
    By Bryan Smith

    Those words in my titles are quotes of thousands of Americans today, not realizing that a very boring World Series is happening right now. Just sit back and imagine what a Cubs v. Red Sox series would have been like...sigh...

    Not much to say today, as the days are getting pretty dull in the baseball world. But, here's what I see in the Yanks and Marlins, with some mixed in toughts about the next year.

    The Yankees

    New York may be the smartest team in baseball. Hideki Matsui has showed how much knowledge he has, which is also evident in his great average with RISP. Derek Jeter plays extremely smart, although defensive problems do exist. Ditto Bernie Williams and Jason Giambi. Aaron Boone was a perfect pick up, and Jorge Posada fits in the very smart trend. Soriano doesn't really fit in here, he's just very toolsy. I heard a Luis Castillo to the Yanks rumor somewhere, and it really would make sense. And I don't think dealing Soriano would be too much of a problem...

    Is Mariano Rivera the best postseason player ever? Quite possibly. Rivera is a completely different pitcher in the playoffs, able to go two innings with relative ease. This team spends a year preparing for October, and Rivera shows that more than anyone else. And by the way, I love Jose Contreras. And Andy Pettite? He has to be re-signed. Don't think George will let homegrown Pettite leave, especially when he is nearing in on most postseason wins EVER. And with these Red Sox rumors, Steinbrenner won't let him leave Yankee stadium for the winter most likely.

    Nick Johnson and Karim Garcia rub me the wrong way. They aren't Yankee caliber players, and probably should be gone next season. I've heard the Boss wants Javier Vazquez, and Johnson would definitely appeal to the Expos. Throw in Juan Rivera and another prospect, and it's a deal. Hell, get Adrian Hernandez and Drew Henson off your hands too. Then, sign Doug Mientkiewicz, whom seems perfect for the Yankees. He is a very timely hitter, and a smart player. He plays fantastic defense, and would save Jeter and Soriano daily. I mean, the Yankee infield might even be decent. In right field, go with Sheffield. Sit back and imagine this...

    1. Jeter- SS- RH
    2. Williams- CF- SH
    3. Soriano- 2B- RH
    4. Giambi- DH- LH
    5. Sheffield- RF- RH
    6. Matsui- LF- LH
    7. Posada- C- SH
    8. Mientkiewicz- 1B- LH
    9. Boone- 3B- RH

    1) Mussina
    2) Vazquez
    3) Contreras
    4) Pettite
    5) Lieber

    Damn Yankees.

    Fry the Fish

    Don't expect dismantling from the Marlins next year, but don't expect the same team either. I've said it numerous tiimes, but the Marlins first worry should be putting popular, Miami-type players on the field. Florida loves Jeff Conine, Ugueth Urbina, Pudge, Luis Castillo. Let 'em stay. Encarnacion? Out. Looper? Out. Ramon Castro? Out. Mike Lowell or Derrek Lee should be out too. Yes, throw Brad Penny in there too. I like the idea of signing Jong-Soo Shim, whom would add some Korean influence to a very hispanic team. Oh and in case I didn't mention it...non-tender Alex Gonzalez.

    Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis have impressed me so much this postseason, not complaining about usage patterns. Beckett is one of the game's true gems, and should be sensational next season. The team will have A.J. Burnett in relief next year, another one of my favorite pitchers. But I don't like Penny, get rid of him.

    The Lowell/Lee decision will be tough. Lowell will command more interest, and Lee has been in Florida a long time. But Lowell is extremely popular in Miami, and the trade would probably get a lot of bad press. But if you could find a cheap arm to replace Penny, along with restoring order to the farm system...do it.

    That's enough for today...

    WTNYOctober 21, 2003
    News on the Horizon
    By Bryan Smith

    In yesterday's article I said today would be devoted to writing about the Mets, and the job Omar Minaya and Jim Duquette will have. Instead, I have an announcement that will allow me to postpone it. Next monday I will begin running a set of articles entitled "Organizational Meetings." In these, myself and one of the web's best team bloggers will be answering detailed questions about the upcoming months of their club. I will be putting the teams in order of regular season standings, so the Atlanta Braves will start, followed by the Yankees. Stay tuned, as Wait 'Til Next Year will be your central source for the offseason.

    So instead of writing about the Mets, I thought I'd check into the Arizona Fall League. I'm still gathering data on my big AFL project, in which I'll make a generalization about whether or not the AFL helps a prospect, and whom it will help. This will be done after the Organizational Meetings, sometime around when the AFL season ends. I will also have predictions based on my research about which players will breakout in 2004. Whew.

    AFL midseason hitting report

    Last season big Ken Harvey dominated the AFL, to the tune of a 1.287 OPS. This year's Harvey is Jonny Gomes, an outfield prospect for the Devil Rays. But unlike Harvey did this season, Gomes will spend the majority of 2004 in the minors, further refining his skills. Early research suggests that players whom go from the AFL to the Majors aren't helped or hindered dramatically. Gomes is a very toolsy player, 5 tools to be exact, whom hasn't quite put it together yet. He started to at the end of the season, and seems to be carrying it into the AFL.

    A pair of Oakland 1B are doing very well, both Dan Johnson and Graham Koonce. Johnson leads the AFL in hits, RBI, and is 2nd in OBP. He dominated the Texas League in 2003, and seems to be heading down a similar path that Justin Morneau did. Koonce isn't playing in the AFL, but plays for team USA, whom has played games vs. AFL teams. He is hitting over .500, and proving that the Oakland re-signing of Scott Hatteberg rivals the bad decisions of signing Terrence Long and Chris Singleton. Yes, I really do believe Beane is overrated.

    A pair of Cubs hitters, Jason Dubois and Brendan Harris are having very good first halves. Dubois is looking to follow the Todd Linden or Terrmel Sledge path, while Harris is trying to be 2004's Chase Utley. Texas hitters Adrian Gonzalez and Ramon Nivar are also having good seasons. Gonzalez will also try to follow the Morneau model, although he may get throw into the mix like Hee Seop Choi did. Nivar is similar to Jermaine Clark, putting up good numbers but isn't ready for the Majors.

    More predictions when the season ends...

    AFL midseason pitching report

    Jerome Williams led the AFL in WHIP in 2003, and subsequently had a very solid rookie season. The Devil Rays are very enthused by this, as former top-five overall draft pick Dewon Brazelton is dominating for the Mesa Solar Sox. His WHIP is well below 1.00 in 14 innings, and he looks very rejuvenated. The Devil Rays are looking more and more bullish everyday, as a Gonzalez, Zambrano, Gaudin, Switzer, Brazelton rotation is looking mighty fine. Interesting note that Devil Rays players would win both the MVP and Cy Young if the season ended today.

    Not many pitchers are having success yet, which is common in the AFL. Another that is jumping out is Neal Cotts, whom had a bad first experience with the White Sox this season. He's rebounded well in the AFL, only walking two men so far, but the ChiSox would be smart to shut him down cery soon. A good comparison may be Horacio Ramirez, whom had a very good 2002 AFL.

    Jason Frasor is a good example of why numbers tend to lie in pitching this time of the year. In 2002, the great triumvrate of Brent Hoard, Ryan Larson, and Phil Seibel were in the top 10 in WHIP. Bad pitchers can succeed here, and it doesn't necessarily translate to future success. But Frasor did strike out 50 in 38 AA innings while in relief, so he may be a good Rule V pick. Note: Dan Carrasco of the Royals had a sensational 2002 AFL.

    The only other pitchers truly succeeding thus far are Chris Young and Ben Fritz. Young had a sensational 2003, after being dealt to Montreal for MATT HERGES. He's 6-6, and very projectable. He reminds me of Jeremy Griffiths, the Mets farmhand whom had a good AFL, and a solid 2003. Expect some of the same from Young next season.

    I'm very excited to look more into the AFL and the mysteries behind it. If you don't check back for the Organizational Meetings, be sure to come back when the AFL closes.

    WTNYOctober 20, 2003
    GM jobs
    By Bryan Smith

    Hope everyone had a good weekend, no notes on the World Series because I'm not watching it. But let me just say that keeping Luis Castillo should be a huge priority for the Marlins. Today I'm going to be writing about team's with job vacancies, the Reds, Mariners, and Mets. Each situation provides difficulties for the new general manager, with little economic resources to do so.

    GM predictions
    Reds- Dan O'Brien
    Mariners- Mike Port
    Mets- Omar Minaya/Jim Duquette

    O'Brien's Job
    The Reds were a pitiful team during the second half, going only 26-43. The team had injuries in the entire outfield, along with the third base and shortstop positions. The end of season rotation was completely different than the one that began the year, and half the bullpen had been dealt away. The team sold out, trading Aaron Boone, Jose Guillen, Kent Mercker, Gabe White, and Scott Williamson. Dan O'Brien's job will be the same as his predecessor, Jim Bowden: find pitching.

    Offense is not something the Reds have a problem on. Their outfield of Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Austin Kearns is one of the best in the game when healthy. Dunn should have a very good 2004, and Kearns should establish himself as one of baseball's true threats. It's anyone's guess what to expect from Griffey, if anything. And for that reason, and his gaudy contract, it is virtually impossible to deal Junior away.

    If the team is focused on deals, trading Sean Casey is the best option. Casey doesn't hit like a first basemen should, and some of his antics (although he's a fantastic leader) haven't been great PR. It will be difficult to deal him unless the team takes on someone else's bad contract, preferably that of a pitcher. One name that comes to mind is Livan Hernandez, whom the Expos might need to deal this winter. Outside of Montreal, there aren't many other places Casey could go. The Giants might spend money if the price was cheap, or the Braves could swing a deal. But trading Casey is an easy way to land pitching, and save some money.

    The infield remains a big question for the Reds. D'Angelo Jimenez played fantastic after being acquired from the White Sox, and he will be the second basemen and leadoff man. The team also found Ryan Freel from their AAA club, whom proved to have a bat capable of handling the shortstop position. So O'Brien must be able to push Juan Castro and Ray Olmedo aside, and give the job to Freel and occasionally Barry Larkin. At third, go with Brandon Larson. Sure the last two seasons Larson has been unable to put his minor league stats onto paper...he's a great hitter. At first put Adam Dunn, whom would move in from left. And in his left field position, split time between Wily Mo Pena and Steve Smitherman.

    One thing O'Brien won't lose sleep over is his bullpen. First-Round pick Ryan Wagner looks to be a fantastic reliever, and I believe is the Majors' next Troy Percival. The team went with Chris Reitsma in the closer role late, but he is better suited for middle relief. Failed starters Danny Graves and John Reidling will return to the bullpen, where they've had considerably more success. And Phil Norton, a southpaw acquired from the Cubs, played very well in September.

    But it will be the rotation that holds the Reds back, not allowing the team to make a run at the division. Jimmy Haynes is under contract, and can be an ineffective innings-eater at the back end of the rotation. Hopefully the prize for Sean Casey will be a Major League starting pitcher, one that the team can thrust into action. Jose Acevedo pitched fantasically in four starts, and will be all but handed a starting role. Brandon Claussen and Aaron Harang, acquisitions from deadline deals, will have chances at jobs along with homegrown products John Bale and Josh Hall. I would also reccomend this team tries to find a diamond-in-the-rough, because an Esteban Loaiza would really help this club.

    Port's Job
    Pat Gillick put great teams on the field the last two seasons in Seattle, yet couldn't find a club capable of reaching the postseason. Call it his lack of deadline acquisitions or team's without depth, there have been problems with the M's. Gillick's replacement must be ready to deal at all times, and provide Bob Melvin with a lot of options.

    The Mariner offense will be hurting in 2004, as both Edgar Martinez and Mike Cameron are expected to walk away. This will leave Bret Boone as the only condierable power source, which provides a big need in left field. While the team always thought Chris Snelling would be their player, signing a Raul Ibanez-type player would be a good idea. This would push Randy Winn into centerfield, where he is better suited for.

    Limiting Jeff Cirillo's playing time is important, so grabbing a shortstop (so Guillen plays third) is a must. The team has Japanese owners and a huge Japanese following, so signing Kaz Matsui is very likely. He should be a doubles hitter in the Majors, also capable of stealing twenty or thirty bases. The DH position will have a huge hole, as Edgar Martinez has been so important for the team the last five seasons. Ellis Burks is an option, and he's had an OPS over .900 three of the last five seasons.

    Stud Rafeal Soriano will make his presence heard in the rotation next year, becoming the first of many starter prospects to reach the Majors. He will join Jamie Moyer, Joel Piniero, Gil Meche, and Ryan Franklin in a very formidable rotation. Freddy Garcia will either be traded or non-tendered, with emphasis on the latter. He proved to be way too inconsistent, and Bryan Price was unable to fix his problems. If Meche or Franklin struggles, Rett Johnson, Clint Nageotte, or Travis Blackley will be up immedietly.

    Much of the Seattle bullpen may walk during this winter, including Armando Benitez, Arthur Rhodes, and the all-important Shigetoshi Hasegawa. It's very important the team signs Hasegawa, although both Benitez and Rhodes won't be huge losses. Julio Mateo pitched fantasically in the second half, and should replace Benitez in the set-up role. Sasaki will be healthy next season, and must pitch like the closer we saw during his rookie year. J.J. Putz, Aaron Looper, Aaron Taylor, and Brian Sweeney are all in-house options to fill the remaining spots. Signing a LOOGY somewhere off the market might be important too.

    More on the Mets tomorrow...

    WTNYOctober 17, 2003
    Dodgers
    By Bryan Smith

    First off, let me apologize to my readers for a not-so-good week. I only made two posts, and one was my complaining on a Cubs loss. I know bitching about a playoff team losing falls to a lot of deaf ears, but I needed to put it on paper. I have a lot of potential things going on with this site in the next few weeks, so stay tuned. I'm sorry Red Sox fans, I know how you feel. And to the Dodger fans? Read on...

    Los Angeles Dodger Minor League Report

    On the Major League level, the Dodgers are a lost franchise. The team lacks an owner (for now), so Dan Evans has been left clueless if he's employed. The team will pay Darren Dreigort and Kaz Ishii one-sixth of their payroll in 2004, and don't get me started on Todd Hundley. But while the team is bearish in Los Angeles, Evans has created a good minor league system. The team matches good drafts with international signings well, and have a very good group of top prospects.

    It all starts in the pitching department, where the team owns two of the Majors top three pitching prospects. Edwin Jackson spent the entire season pitching for Jacksonville (AA) at 19 years of age, and held his own. He then got a September call-up and pitched fantastically, even beating Arizona ace Randy Johnson. The other prospect is Greg Miller, an 18-year old southpaw. Miller started the year in the Florida State League, before a mid-season promotion to AA. He dominated the Southern League, allowing 15 hits in 26.2 innings, while striking out 40. He will likely start at the same level in 2004, but could move very quickly if he continues pitching so well. In 2005, the Dodgers will have 21-year-old Edwin Jackson and 20-year-old Greg Miller pitching in the same rotation.

    The other two great players in the system are hitters,and both spent much of the year in Vero Beach (high-A). Franklin Gutierrez broke out in 2003, becoming one of the Majors' top five OF prospects. He hit 24 home runs during the regular season, batting near the .290 range, and has a big arm. He finished the year in AA, hitting .313/.387/.597 in 67 at-bats. James Loney struggled this year, due to a big wrist injury. First base prospects all across the minors dealt with this problem in 2003, from Stokes to Adrian Gonzalez to Loney. Much of his loss in power is due to that, but his solid average of .276 should be the monitor of success. He'll be a 20-year-old in AA next season, after being one of the nation's best prep players before the 2002 draft. Both Loney and Gutierrez should have everyday jobs in 2006, and the Dodgers offensive problems will be subsequently gone.

    Beside Jackson, Los Angeles will likely employ two other rookies next season. Joel Hanrahan was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year before a late season call-up to the PCL. He is a sinker/slider pitcher in the same mold as Kevin Brown, and will likely benefit from his advice. Hanrahan should join the rotation next year, bumping either Dreifort or Ishii (Dreifort) to the bullpen. The other rook is Koyie Hill, whom is a top 10 catcher. Hill lacks real weakness, and reminds me of a young Brad Ausmus. He won't be the first to play in any All-Star games, but he'll help his team behind the plate. It's possible Hill will move Paul Lo Duca to either first or left, as the Dodgers value his bat highly. With three touted prospects entering rookie status next year, don't be surprised to see a Dodger pick up the NL Rookie of the Year.

    The rest of the talent in this system is in the low levels, where Evans has really got some interesting players. He has the middle infield stocked, although shortstops are very difficult to project. The best middle infield the Dodgers have isn't a shortstop, he's a second basemen. Delwyn Young hit fantastically in the South Atlantic League, although his defense is sub-par. He reminds many of Victor Diaz, the prospect the team dealt for Jeremy Burnitz. Some say Evans was actually staking his bet on Young becoming a better player than Diaz. The other big middle infield prospect is Chin-Lung Hu, a Taiwanese prospect whom debuted in the Pioneer League. Hu already has Major League defense, and hit over .300 with the Ogden Raptors. But, he's only 5-8, so his doubters wonder if that bat will continue to progress as he moves through the system. The other middle infielders are Reggie Abreu (2B), and Joel Guzman (SS), whom are both very raw. The only other real hitter in this system is Reggie Abercrombie. He is an outfield prospect with all the right tools, but can't put it on paper. He has the speed, the power, and the arm to make it in the Majors, but he will be in the PCL next season. If he learns to play center as well as he can right, and he shortens his swing, he'll join Miller in the 2005 Dodger class.

    The rest of the pitching in the Dodger system is intriguing as well. Chad Billingsley, the team's first-round choice, is the best, as his fastball and curve were more refined after he was drafted. Brian Pilkington is a former top-five draftee whom put up solid numbers in the FSL this season. Mike Megrew is a big leftie teenager in a similar build to Greg Miller, although he doesn't throw nearly as hard. The team has chosen to put Marcos Carvajal in relief his first season, and he struck out 50 in 38 innings. He's a good prospect, but it's hard to hype a pitcher before he reaches full-season ball.

    What's really interesting about this system is that I could see the 2004 ROY go to Jackson, Miller in 2005, Gutierrez or Loney in 2006, Young in 2007, and Billingsley in 2008. Keep your eye on Dodger blue!

    Top 12 Prospects

    1. Edwin Jackson
    2. Greg Miller
    3. James Loney
    4. Franklin Gutierrez
    5. Joel Hanrahan
    6. Delwyn Young
    7. Chad Billingsley
    8. Koyie Hill
    9. Brian Pilkington
    10. Xavier Paul- OF
    11. Chin-Lung Hu
    12. Reggie Abercrombie

    And no folks...I don't want to hear about curses ever again.

    WTNYOctober 16, 2003
    Pain
    By Bryan Smith

    OK folks, I've been bad about posts in the last week. I went on vacation, and then had my eyes glued to a TV screen. The last week was the hardest I've ever had to endure as a baseball fan...as a Cubs fan.

    It's hard for me to put everything on screen right now, which may sound cheesy. But I am a die hard fan of the Chicago Cubs, and no one knows this feeling but fellow fans. I wasn't alive in 1969, 1945, or 1908; hardly coherent for 1984 and 1989. 1997 was a joke; this was my year.

    Billy Goat, Billy Buckner, Don Young...it doesn't matter. I don't care about Steve Bartman, whether he lives 45 minutes from me, or 45,000 miles. This loss was about Josh Beckett, Alex Gonzalez, Kerry Wood, Kyle Farnsworth, Dave Veres, and Dusty Baker.

    Now don't get me wrong, I've been a Baker fan all year, he was a fantastic manager. And yes, I think Baker is a good manager. But there is something that holds him back from being a great manager, it holds him back from owning World Series rings. It's loyalty, it's the ability to manage in the playoffs. In three games, Jack McKeon had it, Dusty did not.

    If you're managing for the Cubs: understand when to take out a pitcher, and never EVER let Dave Veres pitch. Good night, and Eamus Catuli.

    WTNYOctober 10, 2003
    Vacation Time
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey y'all, unfortunately I don't have a long post today, I'm going on vacation in a matter of hours. So, I will promise three organization breakdowns on Monday (yes, even though it's a holiday). Today is a notes day, but I got some interesting stuff below:

    - Miguel Tejada wants to play for Art Howe again? The day before he wasn't ready to leave Oakland? The week before he initiated a conversation with Angel owner Arte Moreno? Wow, what a confusing guy. Tejada will be a big prize this offseason, but cross the Mets and A's off immedietly. Both are committed to youngsters at shortstop (Reyes and Crosby), and Tejada doesn't fit in. Anaheim would make sense, as would the Chicago Cubs!

    - The Mets instead will go after another Oakland A, pitching coach Rick Peterson. There is no better pitching coach in the business, no one else understands pitch counts like Peterson. This would be reuniting him with Art Howe, a perfect match. The Mets need some guidance from a pitching coach, and Peterson might be the second best in the business (behind Dave Duncan of course).

    - Another Oakland A coach that might not be back next season is Terry Francone. He will be given an interview for the White Sox job, along with Gaston, Guillen, Perlozzo, and Backman. All signs point to Cito Gaston, who would make the most sense with a team of veterans going for the championship. In Baltimore, expect Sam Perlozzo, the 2003 bench coach to battle Eddie Murray for the job. Perlozzo would be the solid baseball decision, while Murray might be the most popular public relations option. This choice will tell us a lot about the Flanagan/Beattie combo.

    - Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus had their best chat ever, with Kevin Towers. A few points Towers made:
    1) He isn't comfortable with Ryan Klesko playing an outfield corner. He also states he doesn't want to deal Klesko, which would open up Phil Nevin to a possible deal.
    2) Towers likes a leftie in the rotation, and will pursue David Wells, Sterling Hitchcock, and Chuck Finley for the 5th starter slot.
    3) Trevor Hoffman will be back.
    4) Brad Ausmus and Benito Santiago are popular 2004 Padre catching options, but Towers sees them as fallback choices. He says the team is pursuing a few trades, with 3 playoff catchers (2 AL, 1 NL). He's talking about A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Castro, and likely Ramon Hernandez. Pierzynski makes a lot of sense for this team, and is probably Towers' first choice.

    - David Eckstein heading back to Boston is a popular option. The team will likely non-tender Adam Kennedy, but also have good second base options in Chone Figgins and Alfredo Amezaga. So, sending Eckstein to Boston, where he could succeed Todd Walker is a popular idea. Eckstein is the OBP-type the Red Sox would love, and you have to figure he'd be a popular player in Beantown.

    - A few notes from Yankee pitching yesterday:
    1) Steinbrenner has to re-sign Pettite. Andy doesn't think he's going to be back, despite the fact he's a career Yankee. I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher who works so well despite giving up a lot of hits. Pettite is the essence of a playoff pitcher, although he doesn't quite get the press of Mariano Rivera or David Wells.
    2) Jose Contreras looked awesome last night. When I said Contreras would be top-five in Cy Young voting next year, I was serious.

    When I wake up Sunday morning, I expect the Red Sox to be up 2-1 in the series (Clemens gets out of the game early), and the Cubs and Marlins to be notched at two apiece (Wood and Willis each throw good games). Check back on Monday for the Indians, Dodgers, and a mystery team...

    WTNYOctober 09, 2003
    This Millenium Is Ours
    By Bryan Smith

    What I'm thinking after a day of Championship Series viewing:

    - Why doesn't Dusty pitch-hit for Mark Prior in the bottom of the 6th inning, in an 11-2 game, after he had thrown 94 pitches? A nine-run lead is a great time for Juan Cruz to get some work, and Prior would be much better rested for Game 6 (or Game 5 on 3 days rest?). Dusty took the Cubs to the NLCS, but he also might take them out of the playoffs (don't think Zambrano's bad pitching isn't his doing).
    - I really hope the Cubs don't confuse Alex Gonzalez with a good player and don't pursue Tejada as a result.
    - David Ortiz MUST be re-signed by the Red Sox. There hasn't been a player that plays with more heart in recent memory.
    - Will Carroll suggested it, and I've been thinking: is Mike Lowell better to trade than Derrek Lee. I've always said the team should deal Lee, and put Cabrera in left. But, trading Lowell (Dodgers?) would be a good move, and would free up a lot of money. This team must start keeping core players, whom currently include Pudge, Castillo, Urbina, and Dontrelle. Don't take the ability to pack 70,000 into one stadium lightly.

    Organization #5- Chicago Cubs

    Organizational Record- 324-360 (.474)
    AAA Iowa- 70-72
    AA West Tennessee- 65-73
    A+ Daytona- 66-71
    A- Lansing- 69-66
    R Boise- 27-49
    AZL Cubs- 27-29

    Top 5 Draft Pick Performance
    1. Ryan Harvey- .235/.339/.431 6XBH in 51 AZL AB (OF)
    2. Jake Fox- .240/.321/.400 in 50AZL AB AND .260/.330/.490 in 100 A- AB (C)
    3. Tony Richie-.175/.266/.211 in 57 A- AB (C)
    4. Darin Downs- 0-2 6.57 48H/38.1IP 32K/17BB in 13 AZL Appearances (LHP)
    5. Sean Marshall- 5-6 2.57 66H/73.2IP 88K/23BB in 14 NWL starts (LHP)

    Organizational Report

    While injuries and underperformance played a key role in a subpar 2003, the Chicago Cubs farm system still ranks among the elite. The Cubs are backloaded with pitchers that have high ceilings, allowing each pitcher to be taken slow.

    Almost every pitcher in this system missed time at some point, giving worry to the way in which the team is handling pitchers. Angel Guzman, the top prospect, missed most of the season after arm surgery in early June. Andy Sisco missed time, Bobby Brownlie was shut down early, and Justin Jones had shoulder soreness.

    But, they can pitch. Guzman was one of the best pitchers in the Southern League before his injury, and may have been a September call-up this season. Instead, Guzman will eye the 2005 season to debut in the Cubs rotation. The effects of surgery aren't supposed to make him any less of a pitcher, as that 70 slider (on a scouting scale), will still be there next season.

    Andy Sisco has yet to touch his potential on the field, but his body still awes scouts. Built like Randy Johnson, Sisco didn't dominate Midwest League hitters as he was expected to. He'll move to Daytona next year, where he'll spend the full season in the Florida State League. Bobby Brownlie, the team's 2002 first-round pick, was signed and played in Daytona this season. He pitched extremely well, even despite his velocity being down. The team made a good decision shutting him down early, and there isn't a minor league pitcher whom should break out more than Brownlie in 2004.

    Chadd Blasko held the breakout role this season, keeping an ERA below 2.00 in twenty-six starts. For some reason the FSL gave the Pitcher of the Year to Florida's Nick Ungs, while it was the former-Purdue grad that deserved it. He'll be in an all-star rotation in West Tennessee next season, and he must better the whole team to figure in the Chicago picture.

    While all the aforementioned players look great, the two highest ceilings in the organization are Justin Jones and Felix Pie. Jones is a southpaw whom had only 16 low-A starts, before complaining of shoulder soreness. His H/9 is always under 9, while the K/9 is over 10. He needs to put together a healthy season, and then will be mentioned in the top-five prospect debates. Pie is a Dominican outfielder looking to follow similar paths of Sosa and Vladimir Guerrrero. He showed a little plate discipline and a lot of speed this season, but not quite the power that is expected to develop. He plays a great outfield, and will be more than capable in center or right.

    The Cubs are breeding arms like no one else in the Majors, yet the stress must be to keep these players healthy. If Kerry Wood escapes Chicago after 2004, the Cubs are more than ready to throw someone into the fire. And when Sosa leaves in a few seasons, Felix Pie will continue the Dominican trend. Cubs fans: this millenium is ours.

    Top 12 Prospects
    1. Angel Guzman- SP
    2. Felix Pie- OF
    3. Justin Jones- SP
    4. Andy Sisco- SP
    5. Bobby Brownlie- SP
    6. Chadd Blasko- SP
    7. Ryan Harvey- OF
    8. Jae-Kuk Ryu- SP
    9. Brendan Harris- 3B
    10. Sean Marshall- SP
    11. David Kelton- OF
    12. Ron Bay- SP

    Check back tomorrow, for a Double Dish of organizational reports. I'm 2-1 so far in the playoffs, and quite happy about it. Derek Lowe will be a little tired tomorrow, as the Yankees will even up this series. Yes, Cubs and Yankees are still the right WS picks.
    9. Sean Ma

    WTNYOctober 08, 2003
    Buc is Cub backwards
    By Bryan Smith

    Wow, great Cubs game. But, what I learned for the future is about the Cubs' bullpen. Yes, I would love to have a team with Remlinger, Farnsworth, and Borowski. They all bear down on right-handers very well, and all finished the season well. But, the 'pen seriously lacks depth. Mark Guthrie had a horrible September and lost last night's game, Dave Veres was responsible for a Division Series loss, and Alfonseca is terrible. The team doesn't need to pursue a closer, but right-handed middle relievers are a good idea. I would also go with Todd Wellemeyer, whom started fantastically in the Majors....

    #4 Organization- Pittsburgh Pirates

    Organizational Record- 399-288 (.581)
    AAA Nashville- 81-62
    AA Altoona- 78-63
    A+ Lynchburg- 76-59
    A- Hickory- 82-54
    SS Williamsport- 46-30
    GCL Pirates- 36-20

    Awards and League Recognition
    Eastern League Cy Young- Sean Burnett
    Carolina League MVP- Chris Shelton
    South Atlantic League MVP- Jorge Cortes

    Top 4 Draft Picks Performance
    1. Paul Maholm- 2-1 1.83 25H/34.1IP 32K/10BB in 8 NY-P starts (LHP)
    2. Thomas Gorzelanny- 1-2 1.78 23H/30.1IP 22K/10BB in 8 NY-P starts (LHP)
    3. Kyle Pearson- 3-2 2.05 26H/26.1IP 25K/10BB in 9 GCL appearances (RHP)
    4. Craig Stansberry- .307/.370/.434 14XBH in 166 NY-P AB (3B)

    Organizational Overview
    While many will look at the 2003 Trade deadline and infer the Pirates sold out, they actually built a great farm system. Other big decisions, like taking Brian Bullington and making John Van Benschoten a pitcher were huge decisions.

    The Pirates have four big pitchers at the top: Bullington, Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett, and Ian Oquendo. Van Benschoten has the highest ceiling, a converted NCAA Home run champ. He is still learning the art of pitching, but has mid-90s heat and a 12-to-6 curve. Bullington is out to prove that the top draft pick wasn't wasted, and has similar tools to the top pick. He has the traditional four pitches, with his slider being his out pitch. Burnett is a soft-throwing a leftie that hasn't had a bad season since joining this organization. For some reason, you have to believe in this kid, whom has had three straight years with improving K/BB rates. Oquendo has super-high potential, but this was his first big season. He must take his big curve to the next level in 2004, and then he could be the top choice.

    It was the mid-season acquisitions that turned this organization from solid to top-five. Freddy Sanchez is a great middle infielder, a future second hitter whom has Bill Mueller potential. Yes, I think it's possible for him to win a batting crown at one point. Jason Bay will be Giles' replacement next season, which are extremely large shoes to fill. But he more than proved himself in the PCL, and even impressed Lloyd McClendon in September. Finally, Cory Stewart is an Independent League signing made prospect, whom has quickly become the second-best southpaw in this system. There is a decent possibility that Stewart will be the first of the starters to reach the Majors, which is by mid-season in 2004.

    The final group of Pirates prospects are hitters that have produced, but lack the skills. Chris Shelton and Ryan Doumit are following the Criag Wilson path, although both have good skills. Shelton threw out 26% of basestealers, which indicates he may stay behind the dish. Doumit is lesser defensively, and will may be behind Walter Young on the Pirates' first base depth chart. J.J. Davis is a former first-round pick that hit 26 homers in the PCL this past season, and will have the Pirates RF job next year. Davis is a former pitcher whom has turned his power on the last two seasons.

    Dave Littlefield was told to drop payroll a couple of seasons ago, and is still working at that at. By landing Sanchez, Bay, Stewart, and Bobby Hill, he's proving he can identify solid prospects. The next route is to turn these players into solid Major Leaguers, and put the Pirates into the playoffs again.

    Top 12 Prospects
    1. John Van Benschoten
    2. Brian Bullington
    3. Sean Burnett
    4. Ian Oquendo
    5. Freddy Sanchez
    6. Jason Bay
    7. Chris Shelton
    8. Cory Stewart
    9. Jose Castillo
    10. Ryan Doumit
    11. J.J. Davis
    12. J.R. House

    Well, I'm 1-0 in Championship Series predictions so far. In the Boston-New York game one, expect the Yankees to pull out a close game. Mark Prior should pitch a big game for the Cubs, while the North Siders will beat up Brad Penny. Peace...

    WTNYOctober 07, 2003
    Angels and Alameda
    By Bryan Smith

    Last night, one of the great divisional series in history ended. The Red Sox-A's series was fantastic, and a treat to watch. What amused me was knowing that the Red Sox won, while one could argue they didn't outplay Oakland in one game.

    Looking into some interesting match-ups, Zambrano and Beckett debut tomorrow, while Wakefield and Mussina will go in the ALCS on Wednesday. But the most interesting matchup is Pedro vs. Clemens in the Fenway opener (Game 3), where theoretically, Clemens' last start may come on Yawkey Way. But, it unfortunatly looks like will miss a Dontrelle Willis in Wrigley homecoming (although it has happened once this year.)

    Onto my organization report for the day. Today was extremely busy for me, and I couldn't quite decide on my fourth team. So, today will be only one team, going a little more in-depth. That means one day in the near future, hopefully for the weekend, I'll have three in one day. But moving on...

    #3 Organization- Anaheim Angels

    Organizational Record- 353-340 (.509)
    AAA Salt Lake- 68-75
    AA Arkansas- 70-70
    A Rancho Cucamango- 74-66
    A Cedar Rapids- 66-77
    R Provo- 54-22
    AZL Angels- 21-35

    Awards and League Recognition
    California League Pitcher of the Year- Ervin Santana
    Pioneer League Pitcher of the Year- Abel Moreno

    Top 5 Draft Picks Performance
    1. Brandon Wood- .308/.349/.462 in 78 AZL AB AND .278/.348/.475 in 162 Rleague AB (SS)
    2. Anthony Whittington- 0-3 8.03 31H/24.2IP 20K/17BB in 9 AZL appearances (LHP)
    3. Sean Rodriguez- .269/.332/.380 15XBH in 216 AZL AB (SS/3B)
    4. Bob Zimmerman- 4-2 4.50 57H/48IP 17K/8BB in 10 Rookie League starts (RHP)
    5. Brad Balkcom- .290/.345/.427 14XBH in 131 Rookie League AB (OF)

    Organizational Overview
    It isn't often that a team goes from hoisting a championship banner to a transition year, but hey, they say California is a different world. While the Brewers were my top choice because they had the best top ten in baseball, the Angels have the best top five.

    The future of Angel baseball lies in five players: Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, Dallas McPherson, Ervin Santana, Bobby Jenks. Kotchman, Mathis, and McPherson all have top two arguments in their respective positions, and Santana and Jenks are both top ten potential for pitchers. The highest ceilings belong to Jenks and McPherson. The latter has forty home run potential, but may need to learn a new position with Troy Glaus locked into the hot corner. Jenks has Cy Young, 200 K potential, but his control has always been a worry.

    Kotchman is one of the most oft-injured players in the minors, and must put together a 500AB season. I see a lot of John Olerud in Casey, although some could argue more towards Rafeal Palmiero. Anyway, there aren't many sweeter swings in the game than Kotchman's. A lot of sabermatricians would argue Mathis over Baseball America favorite Joe Mauer, since Mathis has been putting some balls over the fence. But Jeff has also hit more than seventy doubles in two seasons, and you can expect some of those to be flying out in Anaheim. It isn't everyday that a average defensive catcher can put up 30HR seasons, and Jorge Posada is a great comp. Santana dominated the California League before some struggles in the Texas League, and I need to see another good season before I jump on the bandwagon.

    And more so than in the past, this Angels system has pretty solid depth. The Provo and Cedar Rapids teams were filled with talent, and the upper levels weren't dry either. First, let me point out Alberto Collapso and Erick Aybar, whom will go up the ladder as a middle infield combo. Callapso is by far the superior, being a little faster and having a little more pop. But both are very similar players, and should follow similar trends. They also have Howie Kendrick, a 2B whom put up big numbers in even lower levels. One pitcher to watch out for is Rafeal Rodriguez, whom Kotchman's father likens to Francisco Rodriguez.

    Despite all this depth, the Angels recently axed their scouting director. Why? Bad drafting. The Angels top five did miserably, and were pretty bad choices. I thought Texas shortstop Omar Quintanilla was a more solid pick than Wood, whom didn't show many strengths in pro ball. I also liked the other Oakland A's first round pick, Brad Sullivan, a Houston right-hander whom fell two spots after the Angels. Anaheim's first three selections were college players, and only Balkcom played from an elite university. This team must start to utilize the draft more, as there won't be so many Warner Madrigal steals in the future.

    This offseason Angels ownership has highlighted Miguel Tejada as thier top priority. Since shortstop has become a fairly deep position in the organization, this puts Alfredo Amezaga on the trade market. But, look for the top five to hit the Majors full-time in 2005, with the next crop following two to three years after. There won't be another World Championship banner in the Angels immediate future, but there is sure going to be some good baseball.

    Top 12 Prospects
    1. Jeff Mathis- C
    2. Casey Kotchman- 1B
    3. Bobby Jenks- RHP
    4. Dallas McPherson- 3B
    5. Ervin Santana- RHP
    6. Alberto Callapso- 2B
    7. Rafeal Rodriguez- RHP
    8. Erick Aybar- SS
    9. Steven Shell- RHP
    10. Warner Madrigal- OF
    11. Howie Kendrick- 2B
    12. Joe Torres- RHP

    That's it for the day, I'd like to finish with one comment: Cubs in six.

    WTNYOctober 06, 2003
    Organization Reports Begin
    By Bryan Smith

    CUBS WIN! This was definitely one of the great weekends in baseball history, marked with some great Marlin and Red Sox wins, and the Cubs first postseason series win in 95 years. Baseball is on a huge upswing, and I think we'll remember the Division Series as more fun than the World Series.

    One quick divisional series note: I think Pudge's great series likely sealed his fate to stay a Marlin, and Jose Cruz should land on the free agent market as a result of his horrid play.

    The next three weeks I will do organziational reports, in order of my rankings. These reports will include organization records, prospect rankings, draft performance, and my own analysis. Today, I'll debut with the Brewers and Blue Jays. Enjoy...

    #1 Organization- Milwaukee Brewers

    Overall Minor League record: 322-365 (.469)
    AAA Indianapolis- 64-78
    AA Huntsville- 75-63
    A+ High Desert- 42-98
    A- Beloit- 75-61
    SS- Helena- 48-28
    R-League- Brewers- 18-37

    Awards and League Recognitions
    Southern League (AA) MVP- Corey Hart- 3B
    Midwest League (A-) MVP- Prince Fielder- 1B
    Pioneer League (SS) MVP- Lou Palmisano- C

    Top 5 Draft Picks Performance
    1- Richie Weeks- .349/.494/.556 10XBH 15BB/9K in 63 low-A at-bats (2B)
    2- Tony Gwynn Jr.- .280/.364/.326 9XBH 32BB/31K in 236 low-A at-bats (OF)
    3- Lou Palmisano- .391/.458/.592 21XBH 18BB/29K in 174 SS at-bats (C)
    4- Charlie Fermaint- .300/.327/.420 7XBH 3BB/19K in 100 R-League at-bats (OF)
    5- Bryan Opdyke- .272/.364/.388 10XBH 16BB/25K in 103 R-League at-bats (C)

    Organizational Report
    It wasn't long ago that the Brewers were the most laughable franchise in all of baseball. All that has changed, thanks to the new Doug Melvin regime. The team has used high draft picks well, as the last five picks (Sheets, Jones, Krynzel, Fielder, Weeks) all play large roles in the team's future.

    I believe the Brewers are taking the same path the Minnesota Twins did five years ago, letting prospects take over the field. This Milwaukee organization has prospects at every position, along with more than enough pitching depth. They are also starting to take the OBP-approach to drafting, as seen by the high OBP and BB/K ratios of their top five draft picks. It's also interesting to note that the club's first five picks were all hitters, as Melvin has realized drafting pitchers is simply a crapshoot.

    While the organization didn't finish .500 as a whole, the center of attention should be on the AA and low-A franchises. The Southern League Huntsville team was solid all-around, housing prospects Brad Nelson, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Dave Kynzel, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson, Luis Martinez, and Ben Diggins. The Midwest League Beloit team was solid as well, and Prince Fielder, Richie Weeks, Anthony Gwynn, and Manny Parra were the big names there. Much of the team's prospects will debut in 2004, and the team should be completely prospect-laden in 2005.

    Next year will be a transition season for the club, mixing veterans while trying to incorporate youngsters. This season the club discovered Scott Podsednik, Dan Kolb, and Matt Ford, all of whom play roles in the future. There are many rumors the team will deal Richie Sexson in the offseason, largely to make room for Brad Nelson and later Prince Fielder. Oft-injured Geoff Jenkins will stay, as the organization's one weakness seems to be corner outfielders. Ben Sheets will make a large amount of money next year, and must prove why he was drafted before Barry Zito.

    By finishing the Major League season with a 68-94 record, the Brewers will have either the fifth or sixth pick in the 2004 Amateur Draft. The team will likely target advanced pitchers and corner outfielders, two areas of need. I love the way they've drafted the last five years, which is a great sign for Bud Selig and company.

    Look for the team to debut Mike Jones, J.J. Hardy, Dave Krynzel, Corey Hart, and Brad Nelson next season, possibly topping Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the NL Central. But, this team's future will be in 2007, long after Prince Fielder succeeds. It's also interesting to note that much of the club's success will be after Bud Selig leaves the Commissioner Office and regains control of the organization. Conspiracy? I think not.

    Top 12 Prospects
    1. Prince Fielder- 1B- More power than anyone in the minor leagues
    2. Richie Weeks- 2B- Second basemen with a third basemen's bat
    3. J.J. Hardy- SS- Will be solid 20/20 player in the Majors
    4. Brad Nelson- 1B/OF- 40HR or flame-out potential
    5. Mike Jones- RHP- One of best curveballs in minors, but injury risk
    6. Manny Parra- LHP- Underrated left-hander prospect
    7. Corey Hart- 3B- Former first basemen has converted well, doubles power
    8. Dave Krynzel- CF- Kenny Lofton comparisons unfair, but solid leadoff potential
    9. Luis Martinez- LHP- One of minors largest breakout stories
    10. Lou Palmisano- C- Third-Round steal?
    11. Ben Hendrickson- RHP- Huge potential if he rebounds from injury
    12. Anthony Gwynn- OF- Brewers taking family blood into account

    #2 Organization- Toronto Blue Jays

    Overall Minor League Record: 370-327 (.591)
    AAA Syracuse- 62-79
    AA New Haven- 79-63
    A+ Dunedin- 78-62
    A- Charleston- 57-76
    SS Auburn- 56-18
    R-League Pulaski- 38-29

    Awards and League Recognition
    Eastern League MVP- Alexis Rios
    New York-Pennsylvania MVP- Vito Chiaravolloti

    Top 5 Draft Picks Performance
    1- Aaron Hill- .361/.446/.492 in 122 SS AB and .286/.343/.345 in 119 low-A AB (SS)
    2- Joshua Banks- 7-2 2.43 58H/66.2IP 81K/10BB in 15 SS starts (RHP)
    3- Shaun Marcum- 1-0 1.32 15H/34IP 47K/7BB in 21 SS relief appearances (RHP)
    4- Ken Isenberg- 7-2 1.63 40H/60.2IP 57K/19BB in 13 SS starts (LHP)
    5- Justin James- 2-1 3.20 34H/39.2IP 42K/11BB in 13 SS appearances, 8 starts (RHP)

    Organizational Report
    To succeed in the high-spending AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays are going to need to utilize drafts and trades to milk the most out of their organization. Locking up former Billy Beane right-hand man J.P. Riccardi was a great start.

    The Jays youth movement has already begun at the Major League level, with Josh Phelps, Orlando Hudson, Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells, and others leading the way. The team lacks pitching at the Major League level, and locking up Roy Halladay and Kelvim Escobar have become top priorities as a result. As was the team's pitching-laden draft, drafting four hurlers with their top five picks.

    An interesting note is the team's top three prospects, Guillermo Quiroz, Alexis Rios, and Dustin McGowan are not the types of players Riccardi would normally employ. But it was the former front-office that liked catchers (Werth, Cash), athletic high school outfielders (Stewart, Wells), and high-school pitchers (Halladay). These three players are the future of this team, while Riccardi is quick to point to his prospects, like Russ Adams and Jason Arnold.

    Riccardi pointed to 2004 as an important season for his club, as it will likely be the team's final with slugger Carlos Delgado. The lineup will likely start to mix in prospects Kevin Cash, Gabe Gross, and Arnold, while placing their hopes on the shoulders of Delgado, Wells, and Halladay. It's unlikely this team will compete next year, probably falling behind the high-spending Orioles. But once their host of young pitching hits the Majors, watch out.

    Top 12 Prospects
    1. Guillermo Quiroz- C- Forget collapsed lung, Quiroz has it all
    2. Alexis Rios- CF- Legitimate batting crown potential
    3. Dustin McGowan- RHP- Should hit Majors in big way in 2004
    4. Aaron Hill- SS- Riccardi's boy, huge pick
    5. Brandon League- RHP- Numbers haven't caught up with potential
    6. David Bush- RHP- Numbers are way over his potential
    7. Gabe Gross- OF- Rebounded from disappointing 2002 campaign
    8. Russ Adams- 2B/SS- Should be a solid, Knoublach-like player
    9. Kevin Cash- C- Needs a big year in 2004, but gold glove potential
    10. Jason Arnold- RHP- Dominated AA, but struggled after promotion
    11. Joshua Banks- RHP- Leads the way for dominating Auburn pitching
    12. Vito Chiaravollito- 1B- I don't care if skills aren't there, he won the Triple Crown
    HM- Note that former top prospect Francisco Rosario is returning in 2004, and should re-emerge as a big-time prospect.

    That's all for now folks...

    WTNYOctober 03, 2003
    Improving on 119
    By Bryan Smith

    My eyes hurt, I've just spent the last two hours or so looking at Detroit Tiger statistics. But, there have been some interesting findings, and I think Dave Dambrowski will start working at improving this team.

    First, to attack the hitting:

    Notable Hitters vs. LH (OPS)
    Craig Monroe (.968)
    Brandon Inge (.760)
    Shane Halter (.705)
    Eric Munson (.675)
    Carlos Pena (.640)
    Bob Higginson (.642)
    Ramon Santiago (.479)

    Notable Hitters vs. RH (OPS)
    Carlos Pena (.837)
    Eric Munson (.778)
    Bob Higginson (.712)
    Ramon Santiago (.617)
    Craig Monroe (.600)
    Shane Halter (.542)
    Brandon Inge (.527)

    Wow, those are some notable platoons. Criag Monroe is a great hitter vs. left-handers, but couldn't touch a Major League rightie. The two Tiger young hitters, Munson and Pena, can slug RH very well, but are terrible vs. lefties. Switch-hitter Ramon Santiago shows a big affinity to right-handers, while Shane Halter favors southpaws. And Brandon Inge, a HACKING MASS All-Star, is pretty solid against lefties. I also didn't include Ben Petrick in the discussion, although he also prefers left-handers.

    Alex Sanchez, while not a great hitter, has no real platoon spread. Neither does Dmitri Young, the team's most talented slugger. Cody Ross, a young outfielder, hit lefties very well in his debut, but struggled against right-handers. And, there really is no second basemen on this team (Omar Infante and Warren Morris don't count).

    Well, I have the Dambrowski want list. This is basically my opinion of how to best improve this team by spending virtually no money.

    1. Sign either Ben Grieve or Orlando Palmiero- Both these guys would make good platoon partners with Criag Monroe. Grieve is the more risky choice, but he could always return to his old form, and he did post an .841 OPS vs. RH in 2002. Palmiero probably could put up an .800, but doesn't have a ceiling.

    2. Sign a 2B, either Tony Graffanino, Juan Castro, or Chris Stynes- My pick would be Graff, whom I've seen do solid here in Chicago. He's a solid hitter with doubles power, and will take a walk on occassion. Castro is renowned for his defense, but hit above .250 this season. I don't like Stynes, but he used to be a very good hitter.

    3. Sign Brent Mayne- Mayne is a LH catcher with an affinity to right-handed pitchers. He is a veteran, and could probably help the Tiger staff. He would platoon with Brandon Inge until he proves to be a more reliable catcher.

    4. Sign Fernando Tatis- Definitely worth the risk. This gives Alan Trammell the option to bench Munson against some lefties, and you're hoping Tatis returns to form. It's likely he'll draw no interest from other teams, so this should be a gimmee.

    That would give the Tigers this lineup vs. RH:
    1. Sanchez- CF
    2. 2B signee
    3. Young- DH
    4. Pena- 1B
    5. Munson- 3B
    6. Higginson- LF
    7. Grieve- RF
    8. Mayne- C
    9. Santiago- SS

    And vs. LH:
    1. Sanchez- CF
    2. 2B signee
    3. Young- 1B
    4. Monroe- RF
    5. Ross- LF
    6. Munson/Tatis- 3B
    7. Petrick/Pena- DH
    8. Inge- C
    9. Halter- SS

    And that, is a much improved lineup. Now to the pitching...

    News flash: the Tigers have too many relievers. Yes, you read that correctly, too many. Here's why:

    1. Fernando Rodney was voted by International League managers to have the best fastball in AAA, a level which he dominated as closer.
    2. Franklyn German is a year removed from being the best relief prospect in baseball, and also did extremely well in a demotion to AAA.
    3. Expensive Matt Anderson did a good job in his second tour in Comerica Park.
    4. Another expensive reliever, Danny Patterson, finsihed the year solidly in middle relief.
    5. Chris Mears landed a few saves, as long as a solid performance in the bullpen. But, he's no starter.
    6. Matt Roney was a Rule V pick also tried in starting, although he proved to be a solid long-leftie in the bullpen.
    7. Chris Spurling was another one of the Tigers' Rule V picks, and he blossomed towards the end of the year.
    8. Jamie Walker was the team's best reliever, and is one of the league's best unknown LOOGYs. He likely could draw interest on the trade market.
    9. Another leftie that did well was Eric Eckenstahler. The tall leftie only allowed five runs in 15.2 innings, with an ERA under 2.00.

    Here are my cuts:
    CL- Rodney
    SU- German
    SU- Anderson
    MR- Patterson
    MR- Spurling
    LR- Roney

    Trade Walker for whatever you can get, and send Mears, Eckenstahler, and Brian Schmack to AAA. Wilfredo Ledezma, the team's final Rule V pick, is said to have some promise, so put him in the AAA rotation as well.

    The starting rotation doesn't look so promising. My belief is Jeremy Bonderman should head to AAA to start next season, forming a AAA rotation of:

    1. Jeremy Bonderman
    2. Wilfredo Ledezma
    3. Rob Henkel
    4. Kenny Baugh
    5. Preston Larrison
    6. Andy Van Hekken

    And believe me, all these players could benefit by going on a six-man rotation. That means, in the Majors I left Mike Maroth, Nate Cornejo, Nate Robertson, and Shane Loux.

    Maroth pitched decently, showing promise in at least one month (June). He could take a big turn at one point, like Mike Redman did, but in the least he's a leftie that will eat innings. Nate Cornejo is a right-hander, but he should be good for 200 innings. He'll get smacked around, but hopefully his sinker is good enough that day to pitch out of jams. Nate Robertson showed great potential in his August call-up, mixing solid starts with ugly ones. As did Shane Loux, who had an ERA less that 2.00 in AAA until July. That would leave the Tigers with four starters, including three lefties. That puts Dambrowski in the market for one right-handed pitcher, someone who at least will draw some attention. My choices would be Scott Erickson, Cory Lidle, John Thomson, and Freddy Garcia. And, that's written from my least choice to my highest. So naturally, expect the Tigers to get Erickson.

    Here's a recap of my 2004 improved Tiger squad...
    Catchers: Brent Mayne, Brandon Inge
    Infielders: Carlos Pena, 2B signee, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Eric Munson, Fernando Tatis, Dmitri Young
    Outfielders: Bobby Higginson, Alex Sanchez, Craig Monroe, Ben Grieve, Cody Ross
    Starting Rotation: Lidle/Erickson, Maroth, Cornejo, Robertson, Loux
    Bullpen: Fernando Rodney, Franklyn German, Matt Anderson, Danny Patterson, Matt Roney, Chris Spurling

    That's all for now. And, I'm going to the Cubs game today!!!!!!!

    WTNYOctober 02, 2003
    Short and Sweet
    By Bryan Smith

    I opened up my inbox yesterday to see one of my favorite titles, "Baseball America Prospect Report." That means the Arizona Fall League has started, and I'm working on a big article about that. I'll have it up in the next few days, and basically its explaining why you should pay attention. But today is just gonna be a notes day, leading with my Division Series thoughts...

    - The Marlins have had a great run at things, but they need some changes next season. Trade Derrek Lee, Juan Encarnacion, Brad Penny, and Braden Looper. Re-sign Pudge, Luis Castillo, Ugueth Urbina, and that Korean outfielder I've talked about before. Then, lock-up Mike Lowell for a long, long time. Juan Pierre was an awesome acquisition, he's Kenny Lofton reincarnated. But, that bullpen needs a lot of help. Rick Helling in a bullpen is pathetic, as was Jack McKeon using him yesterday. Chad Fox was a solid pick-up, and Spooneybarger will be good next season. But, they bullpen should be considered before late July.

    - Ray Durham is going to have a big 2004. He was hurt this season, but Pac Bell is made for his doubles power. I'm going to wait on 2B next year in the fantasy draft, and jump on Durham.

    - Yesterday's hero? Mark DeRosa? Yep. Marcus Giles doesn't start, and DeRosa hits the game-winning double in the eighth inning. Vinny Castilla is a free agent at the end of the season, and I think the team should throw DeRosa in everyday at third. That would give them extra money to trade for Richie Sexson, and to find an adequate right fielder.

    - Todd Walker batted third last night. True, it was just Little's way to go leftie, rightie, leftie, and so on, but he did go yard twice. Walker's had a fantastic season, and is jumping up the top of free agent lists. The Red Sox will pursue retaining him, and I imagine he'll be wooed by the Indians, the Cubs, the Mets, and maybe the Dodgers.

    - Drifting away from playoffs, and into transaction analysis. Yesterday, the Pirates claimed 30-year old right-hander Jason Boyd off waivers from the Cleveland Indians. I like this move, since Boyd had a 6.54 H/9 ratio. He's a 6-3 rightie that doesn't strike out a lot of guys, and probably walks too many. But, its good to see the Pirates working the waiver wire, and there's a possiblity he'll become a good set-up man.

    - Griffey back in Seattle? That's the newest rumor, but that would first require a GM. U.S.S. Mariner has a few ideas, and it's hilarious to hear Billy Beane rumors. He turned down the Red Sox folks, he ain't coming to Seattle. Griffey would take sense, and the Mariners easily have enough in the farm system. The question really comes down to, would Griffey ever swallow his pride and return home?

    - In the world of managerial hirings, Eddie Murray was granted permission to talk to the Orioles. I really expect this to happen, but I agree with Dave Pinto that he definitely must work on his media relations. In Chicago, it sounds like its down to Cito Gaston vs. Ozzie Guillen. I think Guillen is way too young and inexperienced, but Gaston seems like the perfect guy for the job. By the way, what's happening with Jim Tracy? I love the guy, and would hire him in a second. Larry Bowa will keep his job until next season begins, which makes no sense. Expect Jerry Manuel to join the San Francisco Giant staff next year, and Hargrove will probably head to the Boston bench.

    - There's going to be some sweet trading this offseason. Here's the top 5 available:
    1. Javier Vazquez
    2. Curt Schilling
    3. Billy Wagner
    4. Carlos Lee
    5. Richie Sexson

    - I hear the Yankees are interestred in LaTroy Hawkins, which makes a lot of sense. My guess is it comes between the Bronx Bombers and the Cubs.

    - Looks like I'm 6-0 so far in playoff games. Today, I'm going with the Yankees in a blowout and the A's on a Zito masterpiece.

    - Finally, I'm thinking about making some changes on the site. If you read this site everyday, please e-mail me. I'm thinking about creating a joint blog to this where I post random thoughts like the ones above, not just about next year. Or, I could put all of that into one blog, or I could just keep it the way it is. Just a thought, but I was hoping to get some reader response on the issue.

    WTNYOctober 01, 2003
    Division Series notes, and the other 15
    By Bryan Smith

    A few notes from the division series games:
    - The Torii Hunter "triple" showed why the Yankees defense is so bad. Bernie Williams is not a center fielder anymore, and Alfonso Soriano is worthless at second. God knows the Yankees won't address this issue anytime soon, but it's definitely holding the back.
    - Shannon Stewart must be re-signed.
    - Barry Bonds talking about retirement is crazy. Watching the Giants play, I realized how bad that team would be without Bonds. Schmidt pitched a sensational game, and it was those two and Edgardo Alfonzo that won this game.
    - Josh Beckett looked fantastic, I've never seen such movement on a high-90s pitch since...
    - Kerry Wood. The Cubs must re-sign him to a long-term deal, he's such an integral piece. The guts he showed with the double, the back-handed stab, and a great performance demands his eternal stay in the Windy City. Would Mark Prior be as effective without Wood? I'm not so sure.
    - Finally, the Braves must make a conscious effort this offseason to return to pitching. There aren't many teams with more pitching depth in the minors, but this bullpen is terrible. I think they should let Sheffield go, trade for Richie Sexson, and spend the remaining money on a great bullpen.

    And now to the real article, a quick synopsis on the other half of the Major League teams this offseason.

    Milwaukee- BUYERS/NEITHER- The Brewers finished under $30,000,000 for this season, and probably won't next season. There's rumors they want to trade Sexson, to give more money for Doug Melvin to spend. Getting Bubba Nelson and Adam LaRoche from Atlanta would be great, and it would help the move for the future. This team should get an innings-eater for the rotation, and make some trials on a few more hitters.

    Minnesota- NEITHER- Carl Pohlad allowed Terry Ryan to increase payroll after the successes of 2002, but that won't happen next year. If I had to guess, I would bet the team goes below the $67.8M they spent this season. Signing Shannon Stewart is a must, he proved to be the ultimate sparkplug for the team. They will non-tender Doug Mientkiewicz, and likely lose Rick Reed, Eddie Guardado, and LaTroy Hawkins. Adding a cheap fifth starter, a 2004 Kenny Rogers, is a good idea. They should also sign one more reliever to help finish games with Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, and J.C. Romero.

    Montreal- SELLERS- I can't think of anything more despicable about baseball than the current state of the Expos. The payroll should decrease about five million next year, landing at about $40M. Vladimir Guerrero is out the door, and Javier Vazquez is likely right behind him. Tomo Ohka is rumored to be non-tendered, and Fernando Tatis is gone. The team should sign a cheap center fielder, a cheaper third basemen, and a starter. The next GM, Minaya is probably gone, must be able to work with a low budget. But Terrmel Sledge should definitely be playing right next season.

    New York Mets- SELLERS- Would you pour more money into this team? No, neither will Fred Wilpon. Signing Mike Cameron is an increasing possibility, but that will be about it. I think the team would be smart to find a stopgap at second, and a cheap right fielder. Also, trying to land the next Tom Gordon would be intelligent as well. There is no blueprint to rebuilding a team, and the Mets need a couple of years for sure.

    New York Yankees- NEITHER- George Steinbrenner can't really add money next year, but he definitely will keep it at the same place. Gary Sheffield is the team's top priority, and will surely be manning right field next year. The team will need a fifth starter, and probably will pursue Curt Schilling to fill the spot. Also, expect a set-up spot to be filled. The Yankees will once again to be favored next year.

    Oakland- NEITHER- Billy Beane won't be moving payroll dramatically, but he must rebound after the loss of Miguel Tejada. The top two priorities are surely a right-handed bat in left field, and a closer to replace Keith Foulke. Also, Ted Lilly should be traded at some point in the offseason.

    Philadelphia- BUYERS- Moving into a new stadium will allow the team to jump in payroll. Kevin Millwood is probably out the door, but the team is hoping to replace him with ex-Phillie Curt Schilling. Also, building a bullpen is also important. Mesa, Williams, Cormier, Wendell, and Adams are probably out the door. Ed Wade will be spending all of his money finding another way to boost payroll.

    Pittsburgh- NEITHER- Just like the Reds yesterday, the Pirates already dropped payroll enough during this season. The team will be re-signing Matt Stairs, but Reggie Sanders is out the door. Jason Kendall may be traded to the Padres, depending on how much money the Pirates will hang onto. The team will probably drop in the thirty million dollar range until they have to re-sign their young studs. Pirates fans: count down the days until Bullington, Burnett, and Van Benschoten...you won't compete until then.

    San Diego- BUYERS- Another example of what a new stadium can do. The team has already added Brian Giles, yet they are hardly done. Jason Kendall may be the next Pirate to make the switch, depending on how much more than Xavier Nady they must pay. The team also is looking at signing a southpaw, like David Wells or Sterling Hitchcock. Also, Towers must decide between Rod Beck and Trevor Hoffman.

    San Francisco- NEITHER- It's funny that the team with the league's largest attendance can't keep their payroll. Tim Worrell or Felix Rodriguez is gone, and they have to rebuild in the infield. Rich Aurilia must be kept, and Sidney Ponson should be as well. J.T. Snow is gone, along with Benito Santiago. My guesses at replacements? Pedro Feliz and Yorvit Torrealba.

    Seattle- NEITHER- Mike Cameron is gone. But, Edgar Martinez must be kept. The team will sign Kaz Matsui at short, and Carlos Guillen will be playing third. Randy Winn is going to take over in center, meaning Chris Snelling or a free agent is going to take over in left. Freddy Garcia will probably be non-tendered, hopefully opening up a slot for Rafeal Soriano.

    St. Louis- NEITHER- Edgar Renteria must be kept, and Fernando Vina must go. The rotation must improve, to the degree of Matt Morris, Woody Williams, Dan Haren, Brett Tomko, and either Chris Carpenter, Garrett Stephenson, and Jason Simontacchi. The bullpen must get better next year, because Jeff Fassero and Cal Eldred are not adequate.

    Tampa Bay- BUYERS- They say Gary Sheffield and Mike Cameron are at the top of their lists. But neither will be signed. But Carl Everett is a more realistic goal, and the team should also re-sign Julio Lugo. I would also target a third basemen if I were them, but who knows what Pinella will do. The rotation and bullpen don't need too much help, but a little veteran influence can't help.

    Texas- SELLERS- Lots of money will be thrown out the money in Texas. They will not win the division next year, guaranteed. Next season is simply about getting Teixeira, Nix, Nivar, Gonzalez, and other rookies acclimated to Major League life. Don't get me wrong, if Kerry Wood ever comes here, than they'll be a lock for the playoffs. But Tom Hicks must get more dedicated to sign pitchers, and no, Chan Ho Park doesn't count. Re-signing John Thomson would be a good first step.

    Toronto- NEITHER- Lock up Roy Halladay. Re-sign Kelvim Escobar and Frank Catalanotto. That is pretty much all the things on the J.P. Riccardi wish list this offseason. Don't be surprised if they go after Ted Lilly, or throw some more outfielders at pitchers. I dunno.

    Check back tomorrow...

    WTNYSeptember 30, 2003
    Payrolls in 2004
    By Bryan Smith

    Will your team be spending or selling this offseason? Today's article is a primer on what 15 teams will be doing as a whole in the winter months.

    Anaheim- BUYERS- New owner Arturo Moreno is going to spend a lot of money this offseason. The team has spoken about reaching the $90M mark, which is about $20M more than this season. Miguel Tejada is expected to sign here, and the team will also pursue a top starting pitcher free agent. The team will still be smart fiscally, and should non-tender Adam Kennedy when Tejada jumps aboard. Next season expect the Angels to be contenders again, thanks to Tejada protecting Garret Anderson, and an improved starting staff.

    ARIZONA-SELLERS- En route to a World Series championship, Jerry Colangelo made some bad decisions. His choices to defer millions of dollars in contracts will hurt the team next season, as they'll have to sell. Expect Junior Spivey and Matt Mantei to be the first one's out the door. The team will investigate trading Curt Schilling, because they will not re-sign him after 2004. Any spare money should be spend acquiring a top-notch right fielder, the only real hole on offense.

    ATLANTA- SELLERS- The problem with corporate ownership will be shown with the upcoming Braves offseason. Ya think AOL/Time Warner's troubles correlate to the Braves dropping payroll. Oh yeah. Luckily, the team does not need to trade players to lose payroll, just let some go. Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux, Darren Holmes, Javy Lopez, and Vinny Castilla combined to make salaries in the $43M range in 2003, and all of them are free agents after the playoffs. Maddux will surely bolt, and I doubt Sheffield will turn down the Yankees. Lopez could be headed elsewhere due to Johnny Estrada, and Darren Holmes will not get big-time money. The Braves may be a player in the free agent market, but there is no way that payroll will near $100M in 2004.

    Baltimore- BUYERS- Peter Angelos is finally putting money into his product, now that Major League Baseball threatens to put a team in Washington D.C.. Actually, the team had tons of contracts that didn't matter last year, and this team may have more spending money than anyone else. The Orioles could possibly offer Guerrero $20M per year, and have money to fill the rest of their holes. Albert Belle and Scott Erickson will be stricken from the record books next season, and Baltimore should finally turn a corner.

    Boston- BUYERS- Theo Epstein's fantastic season deserves a lot of credit, and may be the reason the team boosts payroll next season. The team surpassed a $100M payroll last year, and should do the same next season. Epstein is going to pursue such starters as Javier Vazquez and Curt Schilling, and probably won't need to take on big salary. And think that this team will be paying Pedro, Nomar, and Manny somewhere in the $50M range. The Red Sox need to be buyers to compete with the Yankees, and as long as Yawkey Way stays crowded, John Henry won't complain.

    Chicago Cubs- BUYERS- The Cubs will have roughly $15-20M to spend on players not signed next season, although who knows where they'll spend the money. Miguel Tejada will likely end up in Anaheim, and Andy Pettite should be staying in New York. Pursuing Jose Vidro and Javier Vazquez in a blockbuster trade is one idea, stocking the team with mid-level veterans like Luis Castillo and Ugueth Urbina is another. But don't test Jim Hendry's creativity, he's done enough to prove he'll do anything to win.

    Chicago White Sox- NEITHER- The Sox should be looking to sign from within this season, and little else. Rumors have it that Bartolo Colon is about to re-sign, and he's Ken Williams' top priority. The team also wants to re-sign Roberto and Sandy Alomar, Tom Gordon, and possibly Carl Everett. Either Carlos Lee or Paul Konerko should be traded, and Carlos could demand much higher value. But its Frank Thomas that determines the future of the club: will he stay in Chicago for $8M in 2004?

    Cincinnati Reds- NEITHER- I put neither because the team already did all of its selling out. This is a club that could legitimately compete in 2004, but management would need to boost payroll about $7M. That won't happen. The fact that Barry Larkin re-signed baffles me, but the Reds often do. Can this team afford Jason La Rue and Richie Sexson, probably not. Are they stuck with them? Quite possibly. Dumping Casey to the Dodgers and signing Kevin Millwood could make this team a contender next season. Instead, they'll be in a war for last place.

    Cleveland- NEITHER- Ownership is waiting until the rebuilding plan is over until they allow a boost in payroll. Instead, don't be surprised if the payroll is a little less next season. Danys Baez and Ellis Burks should be goners, giving the team money to fill holes with. Signing a short-term 2B/3B plug is a good idea, as is a innings-eater or two for the rotation. Mark Shapiro is a genius GM, and the Indians should be increasing payroll and wins by 2006.

    Colorado Rockies- NEITHER- Don't expect a big difference in Rockie payroll next season. The team should trade Jay Payton away for pitching, allowing Rene Reyes a starting job. Garrett Atkins is ready to start at third, and an improved Mark Bellhorn should be present next year as well. This team needs some starters to step up, and could use a solid closer. But until Todd Helton or Larry Walker stop congesting the payroll, this team will be limited.

    DETROIT- NEITHER- Well, it can't get much lower, and there's no way its getting higher. I'll be writing an article later in the week on this team, but there really is no bright spot in the future. They lose the big Dean Palmer contract this season, and stop paying Damion Easley next year. The Tigers should be present in the free agent market, but won't be spending more than $5-10M on roster fillers.

    Florida Marlins- BUYERS- I say this hesitantly. The Marlins were buyers during this season, and their payroll won't increase too much next season. But ownership is making strides to improve this team, and doing everything to make baseball work in Florida. I would trade Derrek Lee, Juan Encarnacion, and Brad Penny, to make room for future arbitration dollars. Next year Miguel Cabrera becomes a star...you've been warned.

    Houston Astros- SELLERS- Drayton McLane is in financial trouble, and the Astros will suffer as a result. Either Billy Wagner or Richard Hidalgo will be traded this offseason, and there's a possibility both get dealt. Don't expect Brad Ausmus to be re-signed, unless he takes really low numbers. Wagner can easily be replaced by Dotel, and Hidalgo by Jason Lane. To acquire one of these players, the Astros need to add serious starting pitching depth. If Houston hadn't pitched Jeriome Robertson and Ron Villone against Milwaukee, maybe the Cubs wouldn't be in Atlanta right now.

    Kansas City- BUYERS- David Glass proved if fans come watch, he'll treat them with respect. The team won't be re-signing Raul Ibanez, but expect Carlos Beltran to be retained. There's a lot of veteran depth on this team, and it will be interesting to watch the future of Rondell White, Joe Randa, Brent Mayne, Brian Anderson, Graeme Lloyd, Curt Leskanic, Al Levine, and Jason Grimsley.

    Los Angeles- NEITHER- Until a rich ownership group takes over this team, they won't be adding payroll. Yet the team has the responsibility to adding a lineup to their repertoire, because the pitching is already there. My advice to Dan Evans would be to pursue Richie Sexson will all of his power. The team must also hang onto Hideo Nomo, whom has proven to be the perfect Dodger Stadium pitcher.

    OK, really tired....must go to bed.
    2003 Playoff Division Series Predictions
    Giants in 5
    Cubs in 4
    Yankees in 4
    Red Sox in 5

    Peace.

    WTNYSeptember 29, 2003
    The 2003-2004 WaTNeY awards
    By Bryan Smith

    It's time folks. Today, is the first annual WaTNeY awards, the prize of tomorrow. All of these picks are way far in advance, but if their right, I can honestly say I got it right before anyone else. So here are the awards NONE of you have been waiting for:

    WaTNeY for 2004 Breakout Hitter- Aaron Guiel- OF- Royals
    Is it wrong for me to think a 30-year-old outfielder with under 600 professional at-bats has big times ahead of him? Nope. Here are Guiel's splits:

    Before ASB: .270/.345/.520 in 100AB
    After ASB: .284/.351/.484 in 250 AB

    So, he's consistent, powerful, and will take his walks. Guiel has twenty doubles and ten home runs after the break, and I'm one to think those doubles will go out of the park next year. While he's only 5'10'', Guiel has a power streak in him. Raul Ibanez should be out of the lineup next year, so Guiel will be in the top five in the order. Expect big things. Guiel's 2004: .280/.350/.500.

    Honorable Mention: Mark Teixeira (everyone's pick), Carl Crawford, Criag Wilson (ask Ben Jacobs), Joe Crede, Miguel Cabrera, Aramis Ramirez (going for a second time), and Pedro Feliz.

    WaTNeY for 2004 Breakout Pitcher- Adam Eaton- S.D. Padres
    Pitchers aren't supposed to be good the year following Tommy John surgery, so 2003 should be looked at positively for Eaton. He finished with a H/IP rate below 9, which is always a good measure of future success. After the All-Star Break he went 5-5, 3.92ERA. He yielded 71 hits in 80.1IP, striking out 59 against 29 walks.

    Next season Eaton should be far past Tommy John surgery, and ready for a big step. He won't be good for too many strikeouts, but an ERA around the 3.50 range will be welcome to any fantasy team. And with the explosive San Diego offense, 15 wins isn't out of the realm of possibility.

    Honorable Mention- Jake Peavy (Eaton teammate), Oliver Perez (former teammate), Victor Zambrano, Jorge Sosa, Carl Pavano, Darrell May, John Thomson (free agent)

    WaTNeY for 2004 Burst Into Superstardom- Vernon Wells- OF
    Wells was one of my 2003 breakout players, and he did me good. But when you talk about the best baseball players in the game, Wells name doesn't come up. That's all going to change soon, and Wells will become the best player on his team, in his division. Here's a look at season splits:

    Before ASB: .299/.338/.556 in 405AB
    After ASB: .348/.392/.548 in 270AB

    Yes, Wells hit much less HR/AB after the break as opposed to before. But he hit a lot more doubles, and his K/BB rate improved greatly. He hit 23HR in 2002, and 33HR in 2003. While I'm not sure if 43 for next year is expecting too much, I wouldn't be surprised. How about these 2004 numbers: .330/.400/.550?

    WaTNeY for 2004 Step to Superstardom- Josh Beckett- SP
    The decision ultimately came down to Beckett, Vazquez, Santana and Contreras. I think all these guys have legitimate Cy Young hopes next year, although Beckett and Vazquez do pitch in Prior's league. Anyway, here is Beckett, Vazquez, Santana, and Prior AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK:

    Beckett: 6-4 2.55ERA 75H/88.1IP 93K/30BB
    Vazquez: 7-6 2.39ERA 84H/105.1IP 102K/22BB
    Santana: 8-1 3.13ERA 69H/86.1IP 88K/24BB
    Prior: 10-1 1.52ERA 67H/82.2IP 95K/16BB

    OK, threw in Prior to make mockery of the other selections. Truly, these are the four arms that I would want more than any in baseball. Yes, that includes those kids in Oakland as well. The only reason I didn't choose Vazquez was that he can make arguments he is a superstar. If Boston or New York trades for him this winter, it will be the best acquisition of the offseason. And yes, that includes Guerrero, Sheffield, and Schilling.

    Beckett was a former top prospect, and a reason TINSTAPP isn't true. While it may take top pitching prospects a little longer than hitters, they are worth waiting for. If Florida ends Atlanta's run in dominance in 2004 (I think it'll happen), it will be in no small part thanks to Beckett.

    WaTNeY for the Next Great Reliever Award- Ryan Wagner- Cincy
    The quickest draft pick to reach the Majors, Wagner may give reasoning to draft relievers in the first round. Wagner set the NCAA record for K/9, and showed why in the Majors. His vicious slider struck out 25 in 21.2 innings, and he allowed only 13 hits. He only allowed 2HR and 4ER in his entire stint in the Majors. If the Reds are smart enough to make him their closer, he'll become the 2nd best in the NL Central.

    WaTNeY Rocky Biddle Award (most random closer to notch 30 saves)- Juan Rincon- Minnesota
    I've said the Twins will lose both Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins, and I think J.C. Romero will stay in set-up duty. That means the Twins closing job will be either Rincon's or Jesse Crain's, although I doubt the team would pick a rookie. Plus, Rincon hasn't allowed a run in almost three weeks now. While I'm sure there will be a better pick next April, I'm going with Rincon.

    WaTNeY 2004 Breakout Teams- Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres
    The Orioles won my biggest organizational jump earlier, as there farm system tripled in size. But the more and more you look at this team, the more and more I like them. Many players on the team (Buddy Groom and Omar Daal) had off years, and others (Kurt Ainsworth and Eric DuBose) should have big 2004s. The team will land another big bat offensively, and become a force. Plus, the team should be ignited with their new manager, Eddie Murray, taking over.

    San Diego I like even more. This team has this lineup:

    Sean Burroughs- 3B- LH
    Mark Loretta- 2B- RH
    Brian Giles- LF- LH
    Phil Nevin- RF- RH
    Ryan Klesko- 1B- LH
    Javy Lopez?- C- RH
    Mark Kotsay- CF- LH
    Khalil Greene- SS- RH

    Wow, how nice would that be? Then, they would also have Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy, both mentioned in my breakout pitchers list. It looks like they might sign David Wells, and already have Brian Lawrence. This team looks sure-fire to win the NL West next season. Kudos Kevin Towers.

    Wait 'Til Next Year Award for team with high hopes that fall apart- Los Angeles Dodgers
    It's all falling down in LA. Next year will be ugly, as the team will be bridging the gap between the new (Edwin Jackson), and the old (Kevin Brown). While I hate to say it, there is a good chance Brown gets hurt next season. The team seems to be a time bomb, and don't have the money to fix the game's worst lineup. My advice would be to go with this lineup:

    C- Koyie Hill
    1B- Paul Lo Duca
    2B- Jolbert Cabrera
    SS- Kaz Matsui
    3B- Adrian Beltre
    LF- J.D. Drew
    CF- Dave Roberts
    RF- Shawn Green

    Still, the team will have to wait for the James Loneys, Delwyn Youngs, and Franklyn Gutierrezzzzz. But, I'm afraid no matter how much this team spends they'll fall apart, and Dan Evans should be out of a job in one year.

    That's all for today. If you have any more ideas for a potential WaTNeY, e-mail me!. And Congrats to the 2003 NL Central Champion Chicago Cubs! Here's to a World Series of Boston and ChiCubs!

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    BIG DAY: Playoff teams in two months
    By Bryan Smith

    Hey everyone, I want to start off today thanking my readers, this has been a record-setting hits week. I hope I can keep putting out quality for you to read, and give you a different way to look at baseball.

    After a subpar week, I decided to write a lot today. In 9 seperate posts below, I've written about the upcoming offseason for all nine playoff teams or contenders (not Phillies). Here are the links to these pieces, if you want to pick just one, or scroll down and read them all. I'll be off on a vacation this weekend, ironic that my one chance comes on baseball's big weekend. Without further adieu, here are the links:

    New York Yankees
    Oakland A's
    Minnesota Twins
    Boston Red Sox
    Atlanta Braves
    San Francisco Giants
    Florida Marlins
    Chicago Cubs
    Houston Astros

    Enjoy!!

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    New York Yankees
    By Bryan Smith

    New York will likely pick and choose more in this free agency, as there are few holes to fill. Right field is one however, and the team has its choice. Gary Sheffield has been the rumored player, as Vladimir Guerrero has stated a dislike of New York City. Sheffield would be a huge addition, giving the Yankees the kind of lineup that Boston has. That's if Joe Torre realizes that Alfonso Soriano is NOT a leadoff hitter, and that Derek Jeter IS.

    The lineup, other than RF, should be identical next season. Here's what we're looking at, if Joe Torre learns some lineupectomy:

    1. Derek Jeter- SS- RH
    2. Bernie Williams- CF- SH
    3. Gary Sheffield- RF- RH
    4. Jason Giambi- DH- LH
    5. Alfonso Soriano- 2B- RH
    6. Jorge Posada- C- SH
    7. Nick Johnson- 1B- LH
    8. Aaron Boone- 3B- RH
    9. Hideki Matsui- LF- LH

    I'm sure I will get an angry e-mail from a Yankees fan disputing that, but I'll stick to my guns. Hopefully the team has learned their lessons and will build a bench in 2004. They only have to look within to see David Delucci (the perfect bench player), Fernando Seguignol (AAA MVP), and Juan Rivera. Although if Rivera is included in a trade to land a 5th starter, don't be surprised. Erick Almonte is in that same boat, and the team has an infatuation with Enrique Wilson.

    Steinbrenner's rotation won't have the big names it had in 2003, but it should be very effective. Mike Mussina returns, and seems to finally have mastered pitching for the Yankees. Jose Contreras will be handed a spot, and should compete for the Cy Young. The Cuban right-hander has gone 6-1, 2.34ERA in 9 starts. He's allowed only 38 hits in 57.2 innings, while striking out 57 and walking 19. Yes, he'll be on my 2004 fantasy team. Jon Lieber will return to the Majors next season, but the team shouldn't expect anything more than fifth starter output. Lieber should be good for 200 innings, but will likely need a year to gain effectiveness. Roger Clemens, David Wells, and Andy Pettite are all free agents next season. Clemens will probably retire, and the team has no interest in retaining Wells. But Pettite has been a career Yankee, and will show his loyalty. The team will bring their southpaw back for big dollars in 2004, ensuring them a third starter. That leaves one spot open for a fourth starter.

    With the Yankees money, finding a starting pitcher shouldn't be difficult. Expect the team to have three options: Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon, and Javier Vazquez. It would be nice if they signed Greg Maddux, but I think they'll be smarter than that. Vazquez is included simply because the team will want to stop the Red Sox from signing him. See, the Red Sox have a similar list, although I question if they could get Schilling. I think he makes sense in only pinstripes or back as a Phillie next year, no other teams can afford him. But if New York gave the Diamondbacks Juan Rivera, Erick Almonte, Jeff Weaver, Danny Borrell, and a low-level prospect, he could probably be theirs. If Nick Johnson is a must, I would advise against the deal. Colon ain't a bad back-up choice, either.

    The bullpen doesn't have too many problems, just a lot of free agents. Mariano Rivera will be back, and Steve Karsay will return from a year's rest. Chris Hammond will make a second run in the Big Apple, and that's all the signed players. Well, you could say Jeff Weaver, but I doubt the team has interest in bringing him back. Antonio Osuna and Gabe White have big options, and Osuna should be a lock. White's awful expensive, and Felix Heredia has done well. Jeff Nelson will be considered, as he's struck out 20 in 17 innings with the Yankees. What might be the most interesting, is if Steinbrenner spends the winter shopping for either a GM or manager.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Oakland A's
    By Bryan Smith

    Yet again, the A's will be losing an MVP, and one of the game's best closers. Miguel Tejada is out the door, leaving Oakland with basically no right-handed power. And Keith Foulke will be leaving as well, so Billy Beane will be going to his fifth closer in five years in 2004. But you can never truly rule out the A's, who will have a healthy Mark Mulder in the rotation next year, along with a full season from Rich Harden.

    >From a batting standpoint, there's not a lot to be done. Ramon Hernandez had a solid year, and neared 140 games for the season behind the plate. Beane had stated he originally wanted to platoon Hernandez with Mark Johnson, whom hasn't played since April. The team has now ran into Adam Melhuse, whom helped clinch the division with a 10th inning off-the-bench home run.

    The infield is pretty set, with not much needing to be done. The team stupidly locked up Scott Hatteberg for next season, and will likely choose between Graham Koonce and Dan Johnson in 2005. Second base is the only position that has some controversey, with Mark Ellis posting a .295OBP in the 2nd half. Esteban German has re-emerged, and will make a run at the position next season. The team may pursue a free agent, and a player like Tony Graffanino would fit Beane's profile well. Top prospect Bobby Crosby will be inserted full-time at shortstop, and is a favorite for Rookie of the Year. And at third, expect a big season from Eric Chavez, whom has hit .313/.379/.551 in the second half. The team will lose contracts like Scott Hatteberg and Jermaine Dye next season, and they've talked about inking up Chavez long-term.

    Is there something as too much depth? Yes, only when you're on a big budget. That being said, expect the team to trade or non-tender Ted Lilly next season. Lilly is 7-2, 3.00 in the second half, and expect the "mastermind" Beane to use that to his advantage. After that, the team has a pretty easy decision. The Big Four are all locks, with Mulder's hip as the only concern. The fifth spot will be Justin Duchscherer's until Joe Blanton claims it.

    Jermaine Dye and Chris Singleton were to be leaned on a lot this season, but together they've put up 112 hits, cumulatively less than the Cubs' Alex Gonzalez. Singleton won't be back in 2004, but Dye will, to the tune of $11 million. The team thought a superstar had landed in their lap when Eric Byrnes hit .356/.405/.625 in May, and .322/.395/.583 in June. But Byrnes has tailed off, only managing a .174 average in the second half. The team has turned to Billy McMillon, a AAA veteran known for taking walks, and Terence Long. Long has disappointed, not eclipsing the .240 mark. But McMillon hasn't, and his splits vs. right-handers (.298/.392/.496), compared to Byrnes against lefties (.290/.340/.531) will make for a decent platoon. Jose Guillen was brought into be the big right-handed bat, and hasn't disappointed. But he was mad the team didn't immediately re-sign him, and might walk. If he does, the team may have to use Lilly for a left fielder, or sign a free agent. The team was previously interested in J.D. Drew, and those talks may re-ignite. And if the Sox will part with Carlos Lee, look out.

    Beane must prove the ability to build a bullpen out of scraps more than any other time in 2004. Keith Foulke, one of the league's best closers, will probably walk this season. But the team has some many stashed away, and don't be too surprised if they go after him. If not, Lilly may be traded for one, or Beane will sign a free agent. The team also needs a set-up man, as inept Jim Mecir is gone. Ricardo Rincon will be back, as will Chad Bradford. Rule V pick Mike Neu will be in the bullpen next year, as will Chad Harville. The team will have to acquire a closer, set-up man, and swing-man, unless Mike Wood will fill the latter hole. Billy Beane will be tested in 2004, and must come up big to have the A's win, and to prove GMs don't hate him because of Moneyball.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Minnesota Twins
    By Bryan Smith

    Imagine this...the Twins were to be contracted two years ago. Wow. This team will have to make some big changes next year, and the lineup should be very different.

    While Doug Mientkiewicz has had a huge season, the team can't afford to bring him back next season. Justin Morneau is more than ready, and should be a big part of the offense next season. Luis Rivas' successes in the two-hole will likely make the Twins bring him back next season, and he could turn into a 30SB threat. Christian Guzman will be retained, simply because the team has no other options. Prospect Jason Bartlett is coming on fast, but won't be there until 2005. Corey Koskie has a $4.5M option for next season, and the team has no reason to buy out that contract. Expect him back, and healthy, next year.

    Another player that will surely be back is Shannon Stewart. While Shannon is a free agent, the team must sign him, as he proved to be such a big acquisition. He will sit atop the lineup, and split time in left, right, and the DH spot. Splitting time with him will be Jacque Jones, who quietly had a nice season. While the power wasn't in the 2002 form, he did hit .303. Torii Hunter had a disappointing season, and seems to be a "close-eyed swinging-hard" type player. The last spot (RF/DH), must be decided between Mike Cuddyer, Mike LeCroy, Mike Restovich, Lew Ford, and Mike Ryan. A.J. Pierzynski has one more year as a Twin, before the team ships him off somewhere to make room for Mauer.

    The rotation will have a younger look next year, and a full season with their new ace. Johan Santana is 11-2, 2.99ERA as a starter, and is one of my favorites for the 2004 Cy Young. He is an amazing pitcher, and probably the best Rule V pick EVER. Brad Radke will look to build on his 9-1 second half with a big 2004. He probably will remain uneffective, but will eat his innings. Kyle Lohse has had a little disappointing of a season, and will be in the 2004 version. Eric Milton should also return full-time, giving the team at least two lefties. Grant Balfour could claim the last spot, although I feel he is better suited for middle relief. But if he holds it until J.D. Durbin claims it, no big deal. But I would advise the team to go after someone as a filler, a Cory Lidle or Ismael Valdes type.

    The bullpen will be much different next year, as Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins are angry at Twin management. They both wanted re-extensions, and have threatened to leave. Guardado may be re-signed, but Hawkins is already gone. The team is comfortable with Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero, and prospect Jesse Crain all closing. The rest of the bullpen will include Michael Nakamura, Carlos Pulido, and possibly Brad Thomas. Balfour should be in there, and would help out a lot. This bullpen won't have big names, but should be very effective. My advice to Terry Ryan: sign Shannon Stewart!!!

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Boston Red Sox
    By Bryan Smith

    Theo Epstein will give it another go in 2003-2004, as he had a good first trial. There are some huge decisions to make, as the Yankees should be stacked next season.

    David Ortiz is a free agent, and there is no way the team will let its newfound hero leave. Look for him to make hefty money, somewhere in the $4M per year range. Kevin Millar will be back next year, as will Nomar Garciaparra and Bill Mueller. The question about Mueller is where? The team could go after a 2B (Re-sign Walker? Graffanino?), or move Mueller there and put Kevin Youkilis at third. But Youkilis is likely part of a deal for pitching, so expect the first option to happen. The oufield will not change, but I doubt Gabe Kapler will return.

    There is pitching on this team, just not a lot of it. Pedro leads the rotation, and Derek Lowe will undoubteduly have his option picked up. Tim Wakefield also has a rotation spot locked up. The interesting story will be Jeff Suppan, who has struggled as a Red Sox, and has a $4M option next season. I advise the team to pick that up, because in the least he'll match Jon Lieber in IP and effectiveness. Plus, it only leaves one hole in that rotation.

    As I eluded earlier, I expect that spot to be filled by Javier Vazquez or Bartolo Colon. Vazquez won't cost too much, somewhere in the range of Kevin Youkilis, Jorge De La Rosa, and Casey Fossum. Vazquez has had a monster second half, and would definitly be able to match Jose Contreras. If Boston lands him, I will likely include Javier in my list of most likely to win the 2004 Cy Young.

    While people have made a lot out of bullpen problems, the team has some decent options. Byung-Hyun Kim will return, and he's done a much better job in Boston than given credit for. Scott Williamson has struggled in a Boston uniform, but just needs an offseason to work out his troubles. As do Scott Sauerbeck and Ramiro Mendoza, who have had disappointing season. Alan Embree has been inconsistent, but the team can depend on him when they need it. Bronson Arroyo, the International Cy Young, will fill the long spot very well. That leaves room for one set-up man to replace Mike Timlin. Expect whoever it is to be a big name, one of the Armando Benitez variety. Theo Epsein is a genius, and I would put him ahead of Billy Beane for all those who want to know.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Atlanta Braves
    By Bryan Smith

    Every year I question the Braves' ability to make the playoffs, and every year they prove me wrong. Therefore, I'm going to officially question the Braves' ability to make the 2004 playoffs. John Scheurholtz is the game's best GM, but has some hard times in front of him.

    Surprisingly, the team's strength in 2003 was its offense. But, of this top-notch offense, few players will be returning. Up the middle, Marcus Giles, Rafeal Furcal, and Andruw Jones will all return. As will Chipper Jones, whom has now become the Braves' best hitter since Hank Aaron. But, the team will lose Gary Sheffield, Vinny Castilla, Rob Fick, and Javy Lopez, all whom had big 2003s. The team could go with prospects to fill 1B and C, they have Dave LaRoche and Johnny Estrada ready. Castilla should re-sign, or the team will go after Robin Ventura or Joe Randa. Javy Lopez may get re-signed, but he'll likely be too expensive.

    One interesting rumor floating around is Richie Sexson. This team is loaded in pitching prospects, and would probably have to pick one or two blue-chippers, along with Dave LaRoche to do the deal. He would replace Gary Sheffield in the lineup, and allow the team to go cheap in right.

    Greg Maddux, the Braves' best since Warren Spahn, won't be wearing an Atlanta jersey in 2004. Right now, the rotation has Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez, and Paul Byrd locked up. They may look within, someone like Bubba Nelson or Adam Wainwright, or sign a cheap free-agent like Shane Reynolds.

    What will be really interesting, is the bullpen. John Smoltz will be back in full force next year, but the team must put better arms before him. Kent Mercker and Will Cunnane have been sensational in Braves' uniforms, probably giving the team reasons to not bring Roberto Hernandez and Ray King back. Jaret Wright, Trey Hodges, and Kevin Gryboski should compete for two spots, and Jung Bong and Andy Pratt for another. The team may pursue a big-name set-up man, although I feel that isn't necessary. This is a team that will need the balls to bounce the right way, again, for them to win in 2004.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    San Francisco Giants
    By Bryan Smith

    Despite the league's best attendance, the Giants probably will not be able to add payroll next year, they may have to decrease it. That isn't good news, especially when the club will have four open position spots, two rotation holes, and a couple of bullpen spots.

    Barry Bonds is all a team needs to succeed. Add in an improved Edgardo Alfonzo and Ray Durham, plus Marquis Grissom should be enough. But, its important to note the team will probably lose J.T. Snow, Rich Aurilia, and Benito Santiago to free agency. They also must decide on Jose Cruz Jr., whom has a $4M option for next season. My advice: let everyone go but Aurilia. Todd Linden and an extremely cheap free agent (think Ben Grieve), would be enough next year. At first, the team could go with a combination of Pedro Feliz (honestly, 30HR), and Lance Niekro. Behind the plate, the team has already started to groove Yorvit Torrealba for the role. But Aurilia is the key, and I think the team must sign him. No, platooning Neifi Perez and Cody Ransom doesn't make up for Rich.

    With all that money being saved in the hitting department, the team should focus it on pitching. Jason Schmidt, Kirk Rueter, and Jerome Williams are all guaranteed rotation spots next year. The final fifth slot could go to a mix of Kevin Correia, a veteran like Dustin Hermanson, and Boof Bonser. This gives the team lots of money to be in the races for Kevin Millwood, Sidney Ponson, and even Greg Maddux. Those are the three the Giants could go after.

    Robb Nen is gone for a year, and the team discovers Tim Worrell. Only to lose him? Maybe. It's likely the G-Men will be forced to decide between Worrell and Felix Rodriguez. Peter Gammons hints the team would pick Worrell, and put him in middle relief. Joe Nathan is ready for a set-up role, and in 2005, the closer spot. The team is well-equipped from the left side, they can choose between Jason Christenson, Chad Zerbe, Scott Eyre, and Noah Lowry. They will likely re-sign Matt Herges, who would come cheap and did a good job for them. And finally, expect Jim Brower to be back in some capacity, he's been good since the break. Until Barry Bonds retires, the Giants have chances. But, the Padres will likely be the favorites next year.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Florida Marlins
    By Bryan Smith

    What a crazy year it's been for the Marlins. Every up and down a team can go through, they have. The team has many off-season decisions to make, including re-signing the likes of Pudge and Luis Castillo.

    Before I explain how they got there, here's my 2004 Marlins lineup card:

    C- Ivan Rodriguez
    1B- Jeff Conine
    2B- Luis Castillo
    SS- Alex Gonzalez
    3B- Mike Lowell
    LF- Miguel Cabrera
    CF- Juan Pierre
    RF- Jong-Soo Shim

    Wow. I think the team should go to lengths to re-sign Pudge and Castillo, both have expressed interest in returning. Conine is a long-time Marlin, and the team should trade Derrek Lee to get money. Mike Lowell has to be considered for a long-term contract, they should make him a career Marlin. Cabrera will have a huge 2004, this is a player who's hit .267/.320/.475 as a 20-YEAR-OLD!!!! And finally, the team should non-tender or trade Juan Encarnacion to free up some money. To play right, they should bring in Shim, a Korean player they had in Spring Training last year, and probably the Korean Leagues' second most valuable player. This team would be very good offensively and defensively, with no real holes.

    When A.J. Burnett went down, the season was over. Right? Wrong. The Marlins found great pitching in unpredictable places, and now have some of the best pitchers in the league. Josh Beckett has a 2.55ERA since the All-Star Break, with hit rates below 9 (75H in 88.1IP) and K-rates above it (93K). He will be on the top five list for the Cy Young, next year. While Dontrelle Willis has faded down the stretch, it has been a fantastic run for a 21-year-old, and he should do nothing but improve next season. While Mark Redman looked like a solid addition last winter, not many people thought he'd eclipse 150Ks. He's become a very good left-handed pitcher, capable of eating innings, and really uses Pro Player Stadium. Finally, I'm a big believer in Carl Pavano. I think he's been slowly building back ever since his arm injuries, and he's about to have a big season. He's a solid fourth starter, and he's yet to reach his ceiling.

    Whom I didn't include was Brad Penny. With Burnett coming back, there isn't room for Penny on this team. Derrek Lee, Juan Encarnacion, and Brad Penny are big names to throw away, but the team must do it. Burnett may need some time to gain effectiveness, so the team has Michael Tejera. In time, Burnett will become the ace he is, and the Marlins will deal him for good players.

    Tim Spooneybarger missed most of this season, and he is big in the plans for 2004. The team should plan on non-tendering Braden Looper, to give them sufficient money to re-sign Ugueth Urbina. Ugueth has been huge for the Marlins, and seems to love Florida. He's a great guy to have in the clubhouse, and should be high on the Marlins wish list. Chad Fox has done a good job here as well, and should also figure into the plans. Spooneybarger will set-up, and Fox will have say in that as well. Armando Almanza will take the leftie duties, and Nate Bump will be in there as well. There are a lot of arms in this organization, so I wouldn't get caught up in middle relief.

    There's a lot of things Larry Beinfest needs to do to become a great general manager, but it's all in front of him. Miami will be packing the seats next year, its Beinfest's job to keep them there.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Chicago Cubs
    By Bryan Smith

    Jim Hendry did everything and anything he could to the Cubs this year, but in reality, 2004 is their year. In the last 95 years, there hasn't been as good of a time as now for the Cubs to make a run. Hendry doesn't have much to do, but there is unfinished business.

    First, Sammy Sosa will be back. You might here that he is "testing the waters" or stuff like that, but he ain't moving. Corey Patterson will be back next season, although Kenny Lofton did a great job filling in. Aramis Ramirez is a great candidate to have a breakout 2004, he's hit 15 homers in only 219 at-bats with the Cubs. Forty to fifty home runs from Aramis' bat is quite possible. Randall Simon will likely be retained, as Dusty doesn't want to bring Hee Seop Choi out there every fifth day. While I doubt it will happen, the Cubs could send Choi and Cruz to the Expos for Vazquez.

    What should happen is Miguel Tejada. Alex Gonzalez isn't getting it done at shortstop, and the team could probably throw him into some deal. Tejada would be a big right-handed bat, and give Sammy Sosa protection he's never had. Second base is a hole, and the team should probably re-sign Mark Grudzilanek. Picking up his option is stupid, but he's done great in a Cubs' uniform and probably should return. Although, that would make him the de facto leadoff man. The team will look into signing Fernando Vina instead, since he has leadoff experience.

    The rotation is pretty set. Mark Prior will be the ace, and like I said yesterday, flirt with an ERA under 2.00. Kerry Wood will have another big season, now that he's firing that slider for strikes. Carlos Zambrano will further his development, and put up ace numbers. Matt Clement should revert back to 2002 form, since he'll have time to get over all his little injuries. Juan Cruz is quite capable in the fifth slot, and is simply holding on until Angel Guzman is ready.

    The bullpen needs some work. Joe Borowski is more of a middle relief/set-up type, and the team should get a closer. Eddie Guardado would give the Cubs the option of a platoon closer, bringing in Guardado vs. lefties, and Borowski to face right-handers. Or, look for the team to look to re-sign Rod Beck. He loves Dusty Baker, and loves Chicago. He'd get to fight for the closer spot, although he may be bitter about not making the team out of Spring Training. The only other possibilities are Ugueth Urbina and Tom Gordon. Look for the team to sign another right-hander, someone of the Jason Grimsley variety as well. With a little help, this team could breeze through the NL Central, and possibly end the near-100-year-losing streak.

    WTNYSeptember 26, 2003
    Houston Astros
    By Bryan Smith

    Prediction: This is the beginning of the end for the Astros. It's all downhill from here. The money isn't there, and the team is getting old. Gerry Hunsicker will have to do a lot of things right for this team to succeed next year and beyond.

    Offensively, there's not a lot to do. Brad Ausmus is a free agent, and although he's well liked on the team, prospect John Buck can do everything Brad can. Other than that, the team should focus on giving Morgan Ensberg the 3rd base job, and trading Richard Hidalgo. The team desperately needs to free up money, and trading Hidalgo is a good idea. He could go to the Braves, who will need a bat to make up for the loss of Sheffield. The team could then slide Jason Lane into that spot, without losing too much value.

    >From a starting pitching standpoint, things have to get better. Roy Oswalt badly needs groin surgery, and after he does that this offseason, should be healthy in 2004. Wade Miller has been up and down, and probably needs the winter break to regain arm strength. Tim Redding is starting to develop blisters, which the team really doesn't want to start developing. Finally, Jeriome Robertson had a solid rookie year, and must build on that. Ron Villone probably won't be brought back next season, as the team should be looking for better arms. With Hidalgo's money gone, Hunsicker should investigate signing Sidney Ponson, whom he's long coveted for.

    The bullpen doesn't need help. Wagner closing, Dotel and Lidge setting up. Ricky Stone and Kirk Saarlos should handle the middle relief duties. The team could use a LOOGY, and Mike Myers will probably be available. If Myers were to return to dominance in an Astro uniform, they'd start making arguments for the best bullpen ever.

    I think this team is treading water, and will slowly start to sink. The Cubs are catching up, and soon it will be the Astros that are chasing.

    WTNYSeptember 25, 2003
    Run-ons and what-nots
    By Bryan Smith

    Just my luck. I don't think I've ever been as busy in my life as I have the last two days. And of course, the majority of my work comes during the days' most important games. But yes, I did witness Shawn Estes do the unthinkable yesterday. And by that, I mean ink himself a contract somewhere next season. I think he may actually have the potential to do well in a giant park, something like Dodger Stadium or Shea.

    Here's some thoughts I've been having...

    - Someone asked me a couple of days ago about who I thought would/should get fired this offseason. These are the managers that likely won't be back next season:

    1. Mike Hargrove- Orioles
    2. Jerry Manuel- White Sox
    3. Larry Bowa- Phillies
    4. Dave Miley- Reds' interim manager
    5. Jim Tracy- Dodgers

    That's it. Hargrove is a good manager, but benefitted from a good team in Cleveland. He may be a good fit in Philadelphia, with ex-pals Jim Thome and Joe Kerrigan. Jim Tracy is a fantastic manager, but the Dodgers must put the blame on someone. The Reds should go after him, but that's doubtful. Manuel is terrible, and will be playing the role of bench coach next year, probably with the Alou's Giants. Bowa is hated by all players, and shouldn't be back ever again. So naturally, he'll interview for the White Sox job.

    Expect Willie Randolph to land his first gig, and Terry Franchone will be back. It also sounds like Eddie Murray has the Baltimore job. I will officially laugh if Joe Torre or Grady Little get fired...they shouldn't. And I pray that Tony La Russa quits.

    - I hope Major League Baseball replaces Omar Minaya as GM of the Expos with Sandy Alderson. Imagine what Alderson, who taught the overrated Billy Beane everything he knows, build the failing Expos. He'd deal Javier Vazquez to the Red Sox quickly, just so he could get Kevin Youkilis to play third. Kelly Shoppach would also need to be included in that kind of a deal.

    - The U.S. Olympic team was named, with some interesting guys on there. The all-prospect lineup would be:

    C- Joe Mauer
    1B- No Prospect (Graham Koonce)
    2B- Chris Burke
    SS- J.J. Hardy
    3B- Garrett Atkins
    OF- Jeremy Reed
    OF- Grady Sizemore
    OF- Terrmel Sledge

    SP- Cole Hamels
    SP- John VanBenschoten
    SP- Adam Wainwright
    SP- J.D. Durbin

    CL- Jesse Crain

    Not a bad team. Except my memories of baseball in the Olympics was me overhyping Ben Sheets and Kris Benson to people because of their excellent performances.

    - Jose Contreras will be mentioned in Cy Young debates next year, and Johan Santana might win it. In the NL, Mark Prior will flirt with an ERA under 2.00, while Josh Beckett gets a top-five vote.

    - Is .250/.280/.500 from your 1B OK when you have Barry Bonds in left? The Giants may put Pedro Feliz out at first next year, they need to put their money in other places. Feliz could hit 30HR easily next season, but would doubtfully hit the .300OBP marker. Then again, don't be surprised if Rafeal Palmiero ends here.

    - Follow-up from yesterday's column...reader Jody Maulton informed me that the rule is 50IP for pitchers and 130AB for hitters when they lose rookie eligibility. That means Rafeal Soriano lost his eligibility Tuesday, and Cliff Lee of Cleveland will lose his Friday.

    - This site never talks about the current season, but I'm throwing in my views now. Here, quickly, are my awards and predictions:

    AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
    NL MVP: Albert Pujols- Sorry Barry...not this year.
    AL CY: Roy Halladay- Although Aaron Gleeman almost convinced me otherwise
    NL CY: Eric Gagne- The perfect season
    AL ROY: Angel Berroa- shouldn't be questioned
    NL ROY: Brandon Webb- read above statement
    AL MOY: Tony Pena- Different Style of coaching
    NL MOY: Jack McKeon- Trader Jack!

    AL Pennant Winner: Boston Red Sox
    NL Pennant Winner: Chicago Cubs

    World Series Victor: Boston Red Sox

    And yes, I really believe what I just wrote.

    Back with a real column tomorrow. I'm currently looking at the past couple AFLs to see if it dictates future performance at all. I miss minor league baseball already!

    WTNYSeptember 24, 2003
    2004 Rookie Contestants
    By Bryan Smith

    As the days before the infamous WaTNeYs make their premier, I must start thinking about the 2004 Rookies of the Year. So in doing so, here's a look at players that should qualify next season for the AL:

    I'm not exactly sure where the rookie cutoff is...if you know it, e-mail me....

    New York Yankees- No one, are you kidding me?
    Boston Red Sox
    Kevin Youkilis- .327/.487/.465 in 312 AA at-bats
    Jorge De La Rosa- 6-3 2.80 87H/99.2IP 102K/36BB at AA
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Kevin Cash- .270/.331/.442 in 326 AAA at-bats
    Jason Arnold- 4-8 4.33 121H/120.1IP 82K/46BB at AAA
    Gabe Gross- .319/.423/.481 in 310 AA at-bats
    Baltimore Orioles
    Matt Riley- 4-2 3.58 70H/70.1IP 77K/28BB at AAA
    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    Chad Gaudin- 1-0 4.04 33H/35.2IP 20K/15BB in ML

    Not an All-Star division. Youkilis was terrible in AAA, and will probably not get the job. De La Rosa will have a hard time as well, expect them both to get dealt. Kevin Cash is a great defensive catcher, so even decent offensive numbers will help his case. Arnold got worse as the year went on, so I don't like his chances. I'm a big Gabe Gross fan, I just don't see where he fits in on the Blue Jays. Matt Riley, a southpaw, probably is the choice from this division. He was a top pitching prospect a few years ago, and finally broke back on the scene. Gaudin may or may not be a rookie, but if so, has already proved himself in the big leagues.

    To the Central: (Cliff Lee, Jimmy Gobble, not candidates?)

    Minnesota Twins
    Jesse Crain- 3-1 3.12 24H/26IP 33K/10BB at AAA
    Lew Ford- .303/.357/.450 in 211 AAA at-bats
    Chicago White Sox
    Neal Cotts- 9-7 2.16 67H/108.1IP 133K/56BB at AA
    Jeremy Reed- .409/.474/.591 in 242 AA at-bats
    Aaron Miles- .304/.351/.445 in 546 AAA at-bats
    Kansas City Royals
    David DeJesus- .298/.412/.470 in 215 AAA at-bats
    Cleveland Indians
    Alex Escobar- .251/.296/.472 in 439 AAA at-bats
    Kazuhito Tadano- 4-1 1.24 62H/72.2IP 78K/15BB in AA
    Francisco Cruceta- 13-9 3.09 141H/163.IP 134K/66BB in AA
    Detroit Tigers
    Cody Ross- .287/.333/.515 in 470 AAA at-bats

    Crain may get the closer role, with Guardado and Hawkins likely out the door. Ford will probably not get a job until he's traded, simply too much of a logjam. Cotts proved he's not quite ready for the Majors, and the Sox have big decisions to make for the future of Reed and Miles. DeJesus is a solid bat, as he will be leading off for the Royals next season. Escobar has made significant improvements since hitting the Major League club, and may hit 30 home runs next season. Tadano will likely have a Hasegawa-like role next season, prohibiting him from the award. If Cruceta gets a rotation slot, he's a good bet, but the Indians can wait on Francisco and Jeremy Guthrie. Cody Ross has no real redeeming quality, and doesn't have the skills for this award.

    Westward bound...

    Oakland A's
    Joe Blanton- 3-1 1.26 21H/35.2IP 30K/7BB at AA
    Bobby Crosby- .308/.395/.544 in 465 AAA at-bats
    Justin Duchscherer- 14-2 3.25 151/155 117/18
    Seattle Mariners (no Rafeal Soriano right?)
    Rett Johnson- 5-2 2.15 63H/71IP 49K/18BB at AAA
    Travis Blackley- 17-3 2.61 125/162.1 144/62 at AA
    Anaheim Angels- no one until Mathis, Jenks, Santana, Kotchman, McPherson arrive
    Texas Rangers
    Ramon Nivar- .347/.387/.464 in 317 AA at-bats
    Jose Dominguez- 5-0 2.60 35/55.1 54/21 at AA

    Crosby is the front-runner, as the A's are handing him Miguel Tejada's job next season. Duchscherer will start the year in the five-slot, and Blanton should finsih in that role. Rett Johnson or Travis Blackley will get a spot in Seattle, and whomever does will compete. The Angels have to wait until their big five is ready, but they should sweep the 2005 awards. Nivar is a solid player who has no real position, and Dominguez isn't quite ready.

    Check back next Tuesday for the WaTNeYs, and my 2004 ROY pix...

    WTNYSeptember 22, 2003
    17 straight in 2004...but where?
    By Bryan Smith

    Greg Maddux eclipsed a sensational record this week, winning 15 games for the 16th straight season. While I tend to agree with Rob Neyer that the record is a bit overhyped, Maddux is one of the two great pitchers of this generation. The other one, Roger Clemens, will likely be hanging his spikes up for the final time at seasons end. Maddux will enter the free agent market blind for the first time in his life, and actually with lack of desiring competitors.

    The Braves know that the only way to keep their aging superstar is to offer him arbitration, where he would make in excess of $10M, a figure he wouldn't come close to approaching on the free agent market. So instead, the team will likely opt to decline him arbitration, meaning they can't negotiate with their best pitcher since Spahn until May 1. That means Greg Maddux has 29 teams to pick from, except not all will be vying for his services.

    Why not? Here's the two numbers I would point out:

    H/9
    2001: 8.49
    2002: 8.76
    2003: 9.32

    OPS against (courtesy of ESPN)
    2000: .612
    2001: .644
    2002: .654
    2003: .720

    These numbers pieced with the fact that Maddux's ERA is the highest it has been since 1987 is frightening. Two weeks into next season Greg will reach the tender age of 38, and be more of an injury concern than ever. Randy Johnson's 2003 is testament to the fact that good things are always ended by old age.

    Another disturbing fact is that Maddux's IP/GS was down to 6.1 this season. That figure is significantly lower than 6.95, his career mark. Basically, Maddux goes 6 innings on average, compared to seven during his prime.

    But, here's a look at Maddux's 2003 half-season splits:

    2003 Pre-AS: 7-8 4.63 135/126.1 76/22
    2003 Post-AS: 8-3 3.00 86/87 46/11

    Greg has improved as this season went on, which shows a little hope. There's gas left in this tank, and there's no better assistant pitching coach than Maddux. While I believe Leo Mazzone has a good argument for the Hall, not enough of his success is attributed to Maddux. He's helped establish many careers, and is a great acquisition as a player/coach.

    So whom could be interested? Here's the following teams that will call Maddux's agent:

    1) San Diego Padres
    2) Arizona Diamondbacks
    3) Boston Red Sox
    4) Chicago Cubs
    5) Texas Rangers
    6) Chicago White Sox
    7) Anaheim Angels
    8) San Francisco Giants

    Now, let's see whom we can eliminate. Peter Gammons reports the Padres will not pursue Maddux, although I believe it would make sense. The Diamondbacks are in huge money problems, and although Greg would like to return home that doesn't seem plausible. Boston will have their priorities in acquiring Vazquez, Schilling, or Colon, with Maddux as a backup. The Cubs will also have priorities in other places, and likely have their rotation filled. But it would be nice to bring him home. Chicago's other team will have that in mind, but should also pursue Colon and Sidney Ponson first. Anaheim wants Miguel Tejada, and will throw millions his way. The Giants make sense, as Maddux would fit in nicely beside Jason Schmidt. But do they have the dough to bring Maddux in?

    My final list:

    1. Padres
    2. Rangers
    3. Giants
    4. Cubs

    I don't really believe Gammons that the team is more apt to sign Sterling Hitchcock than Maddux, and I think they'll pursue him. Texas needs a mentor, and having an ace like Maddux would give them 2004 hope. San Francisco needs rotation arms, and has no problem getting older. And I also threw in the Cubs, because who else will they go after?

    WTNYSeptember 22, 2003
    B.A.S....Baseball After Selig
    By Bryan Smith

    Prayers have been answered. Baseball fans have been saved. The new commissioner countdown has begun.

    Bud Selig's tenure atop Major League Baseball has been anything but successful, with the 1994 strike leading the way. While the game itself has brought fans back (with the '97 Great Home Run Race and the 2001 World Series), Bud was the one to first deter them. It us essential for changes to be made, so the Nation's Pastime stops its backward trend and turns bullish.

    While I acknowledge the commissioner's job is the hardest in baseball (my resume won't be sent in), there are obvious blemishes in the game. The largest is the economic system, which lags behind that of the NFL and NBA. Restraints on owners must be in place, so that teams both stay in competition and minimize losses.

    Another poster child for Selig's ugly career is the current state of Los Expos. I've stayed away in the past from writing on this, but have deep feelings on the subject. Moving unsuccessful teams to new locations isn't a bad idea, but split schedules are horrendous.

    Finally, nothing demands more change than the draft. Baseball America and Mark Prior have popularized the amateur draft to its highest interest level yet. But baseball's lack of self-promotion (and a formidable marketing department) has delayed its emergence upon your TV screen.

    CHANGING THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM

    $150 million. That immense number is the rough estimate of the difference in payroll between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. While the Rays are making significant strides, its virtually impossible for a $20 million payroll to reach one of $170M. The Commissioner's office must amend this problem, as nothing would help promote the game more than 30 competitive teams.

    I tend to understand the hesitance to create a hard salary cap, there are more ways than luxury tax to help competitive balance. In my mind, there is nothing that would help more than a minimum payroll. While restricting the Yankees to one day have a $200M payroll will be difficult, telling Devil Rays' ownership to add $20M or be sold isn't. Here's the numbers that should be made if it were done today:

    2005: $50M
    2006: $55M
    2007: $60M

    In other words, give teams one year to create an economic plan, then make them spend. Giving the Devil Rays $20M to go after players like Mike Cameron and Matt Clement would not only help competitive balance, but likely increase Tampa Bay attendance. These are obvious rough estimates, but wouldn't be difficult. Then, as the average payroll increases, as would the minimum.

    What happens if owners fail to comply? The first time the team should get a warning, a slap on the wrist. The second time the ownership is fined, and Baseball looks into selling the team. The third year the team is sold with profits going to Major League Baseball, and not the former owners. Harsh, but necessary.

    LOS EXPOS AND REALIGNMENT

    News Item: The Players Association has rejected Major League Baseball's ploy for another split schedule during the 2004 season.

    For a team to properly compete, basic things must be given to them. Among those include September call-ups and 81 home games. These rights were taken away from the 2003 Expos, and likely cost them a playoff berth. That fact is disgraceful to baseball, and precautions must be made so that never happens again.

    In doing so, the Expos should be moved to the right home, as should other failing teams. Here's what I would do, in order:

    1. Move the Expos to Washington D.C. There have been groups in D.C. investigating bringing a team to the nation's capital for years. Its one of the country's largest cities, and one of its most important. The team could play in RFK during 2004 and 2005, and a new stadium could likely be completed by 2006. Peter Angelos shouldn't scare Major League Baseball away, he's just a greedy owner looking for another dollar.

    2. Move Tampa Bay to Mexico City. When talks of contraction were happening, the Devil Rays were eliminated because of an ugly 30-year lease. While this problem would likely stand in the way of relocation, 2 teams can't survive in Florida. Yes, the Florida Marlins can, but not a team in Tampa. The commissioner's office should look into the richest people in Mexico, and hope to put a team in the largest city in North America. After a trip to Mexico, I have never doubted a team could sell 30,000 tickets per game (at least).

    3. Realign. This notion seems to scare Major League Baseball, but it shouldn't. The NFL's successful transition to 8 divisions is proof that it works. I think it's important that every division has five teams. Here's how the affected divisions work out (changes capitalized):

    AL EAST: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, SENATORS
    AL WEST: Mariners, A's, Rangers, Angels, MEXICO CITY
    NL EAST: Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, PIRATES
    NL CENTRAL: Astros, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers

    The present-day Expos would have to become an American League team, but I don't think that's a problem. Mexico City is only 929 miles from Arlington, which is shorter than the distance between New York and Tampa (1025 miles). The realignment would allow the Pirates and Phillies to start a Pennsylvania rivalry, and would give NL Central rivals (Cubs and Cardinals) more games against each other.

    4. Future Expansion- If baseball was to start succeeding again, there are four places I would expand to. I don't see this happening any time in the future, but it is something baseball should always have off-hand. Here's my top 4:

    1- Las Vegas (Pete Rose as owner?)
    2- Portland
    3- San Juan
    4- New Jersey (3rd NY team=East Coast Bias)

    And that, my friends, is how baseball realigns and relocates itself for success. I can guarantee ownership groups could be had in the matter of hours for both D.C. and M.C.

    JUNE AMATEUR DRAFT

    I may see this as more of a flaw than other people, but I despise the way baseball runs its draft. There are three things that must change: who sees it, who gets drafted, and who does the drafting.

    First, baseball must televise this event. Baseball America's website had a busy server in June, due to excessive visitors. The Baseball Primer discussion list was the largest I had ever seen. There is legit interest in this event, and ESPN (or at least ESPN 2) is better off showing this than the World Billiards Championships. Its insane to believe that people would watch every round, but to show the first five would be smart. It's probably wrong to start glorifying high schoolers, but the NBA already does it, and it would probably help interest in college baseball as well.

    Next, if the event was to be televised, it would also need to be dramatized. The drama of draft-day trades in both the NFL and NBA keeps me glued to my TV screen every year. One could argue that those two leagues can see the results of these trades immediately, as football draft picks play right away. But while baseball's picks don't play right away, it would likely increase interest in minor league baseball, as people would want to see how their last trade acquisition is performing in the Southern League.

    Is there anything that perplexes you more than international signings? I mean, was it big news to any of you when Sammy Sosa signed with the Rangers, or when the Expos inked Vlad? It wasn't to me. But what would happen if Sosa had been the first pick in the Major League draft? I'll answer that: then you would have known about Guerrero and Sammy long before they hit the minors. For this reason, a worldwide draft should happen. My belief is that the Japanese professional players should be the only ones not included. That means the Yankees could still sign the next Hideki Matsui, but the next Jose Contreras would have to be drafted.

    In conclusion, there aren't many things I look forward to more than B.A.S. Let's hope the next commissioner realizes the most basic fact in this business: the fans come first. There will always be bickering between rich players and richer owners, but its us fans that pay their bills.

    WTNYSeptember 19, 2003
    NOTE DAY!!
    By Bryan Smith

    Good morning everyone, today I will sound off on useless thoughts that have been circulating in my head. Good luck with the interpretation...

    - To me, the Padres are the team to beat next season in the NL. This team will have a huge middle of the order, with Giles-Klesko-Nevin. Mark Kotsay should have a huge 2004, and Khalil Greene belongs in Rookie of the Year talk. Rumors will be wild on an Xavier Nady for Jason Kendall switch, and if that doesn't happen, the team will snag Benito Santiago.

    And the pitching is also impressive. Rumors are swirling that Maddux will land in San Diego, giving the team a boost in every facet of pitching. And, two of my breakout pitchers for next year will definitly be Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy. The reasoning behind Eaton is the extreme success he's had a year away from surgery. For people like Roy Halladay and Kerry Wood, it took one recovery year to re-adjust to pitching. Eaton's hit rate is down, and he is still striking out. The same holds true for Peavy, who will be seeing his third year in the bigs at 23 next season. Along with Brian Lawrence and Ben Howard, this team is poised for a run.

    - Joining them in the playoffs should be the Cubbies. Next year the Cubs should be sensational, especially if they take my advice and sign Tejada. He would give them a huge bat, and allow Randall Simon to be non-tendered. Juan Cruz is another pitcher who you should buy next year, and Corey Patterson will be back full-time. Watch out!

    - Two random pitchers you probably didn't see having huge second halfs: Kip Wells and Javier Vazquez. There's an increasing likelihood that Vazquez will be wearing a Red Sox uniform next season, and he should have a Pedro-like effect. He has one of the better H/9 numbers in the game during this second half, and has a K/9 of nearly nine. Wells has had similar success, although he just can't get a win in Pittsburgh. But he and Wade Miller have both favored the second half, a note you may want to keep for Fantasy Baseball 2004.

    - People in Montreal have been quite happy to hear the team is speaking with Vladimir Guerrero's agent. Hogwash. Major League Baseball is simply doing this so that when Guerrero locks up in Baltimore they can shrug and say, "We've tried." The leagues inability to find an owner for this team may have been the single most disgracing thing in Selig's tenure. On Monday, I'll be writing about where MLB should be in 2008 (after Bud), and you better believe Expo relocation is included.

    - Interesting free agent news. The Arizona Diamondbacks are hoping to lower payroll $14M for 2004, which shouldn't be bad because of Matt Williams' retirement. But what was shocking to me was the fact that they are shooting for $55M in 2005. That surely means that Curt Schilling won't get another contract extension. One likely place for him will be...

    The Texas Rangers have also indicated they'd like to drop their team payroll by about $20M next season. Rafeal Palmiero and Juan Gonzalez will take big chunks out of the payroll, although the team has said they'll try to bring back Palmiero. The lineup will be a good one, something along the lines of:

    Michael Young- 2B
    Laynce Nix- LF
    Alex Rodriguez- SS
    Hank Blalock- 3B
    Mark Teixeira- 1B
    Rafeal Palmiero- DH
    Kevin Mench- RF
    Ramon Nivar- CF
    Einar Diaz/Gerald Laird- C

    Not bad at all. The team should be reinvesting in pitching, but instead are waiting for Dominguez and Travis Hughes to establish themselves. The Rangers will win a division during A-Rod's contract.

    - Lou Pinella is sounding off on his desires for the offseason. The Devil Rays want to add a power bat, and some relief pitching. Expect Tony Batista, Mike Cameron, and Carl Everett to all get calls. And Pinella will also want to add either Tom Gordon or Arthur Rhodes to his bullpen. Some interesting times ahead in Tampa.

    - I'd also like to announce the first business day after the regular season ends, I'll be running the first annual WaTNeY awards. Categories will include Most Likely Hitter to Breakout in 2004, and best 2003-2004 free agent signee. Its something to look forward to. Oh yeah, and after that I'll be doing team-by-team organizational reports (two a day during the playoffs), and after the playoffs documenting what each team needs to do in the offseason. Oh yes, exciting times ahead on Wait 'Til Next Year.

    I'll be catching the Chili Peppers tonight, so no baseball watching for me. Have a good weekend, and let's go Cubs!

    WTNYSeptember 18, 2003
    Central's fate...in 2004
    By Bryan Smith

    After a day when the Twins won the division and the Cubs gained ground on the Astros, I decided it was time to analyze the Central. But on this site, I won't give you my 2003 predictions (Twins and Cubs obviously), but rather a look into next year. Six teams...

    Minnesota Twins

    There are three free agents I want to mention in conjunction with the Twins: closer Eddie Guardado, set-up man LaTroy Hawkins, and outfielder Shannon Stewart.

    The latter has been the poster child for the resurgent Twins, as he's hit .331/.390/.483 in Minnesota. But the more important number is 37, the win total the team has since his arrival (against only 20 losses). Stewart has been a catalyst atop the lineup, and has missed only one game since the July 16 trade.

    Yesterday on ESPN, Doug Mientkiewicz mentioned the team thought Stewart should be considered for the MVP! Granted, some wild names are being thrown out in the AL race, but I think it speaks volumes for what the team thinks of Stewart. And with his hitting leadoff, Christian Guzman can drop down in the lineup. The team will likely make re-signing Stewart its top priority, and tell Jacque Jones to start learning right.

    Minnesota bullpen ARP leaders (from Baseball Prospectus):

    LaTroy Hawkins: 18.7
    Eddie Guardado: 9.8
    Juan Rincon: 8.0
    Johan Santana: 7.6

    As you can see, Hawkins and Guardado have been the two key elements of the Minnesota bullpen. But both sounded off earlier in the season about not being re-signed, and thus dropped in the favor of Terry Ryan. While J.C. Romero is having a disappointing season, he and Rincon could make for a solid finishing combo. And throw in the #1 relief prospect in all of baseball, Jesse Crain. A look at Crain's numbers:

    High-A: 2-1 2.84 10H/19IP 25K/5BB
    AA: 1-1 9Sv 0.69 13H/39IP 56K/10BB
    AAA: 3-1 10Sv 3.12 24H/26IP 33K/10BB

    Overall, he saved 19 games, and allowed only 47 hits in 84 innings. During that span, he struck out 114 people, walking only 25. Crain is ready for the Majors, and should be able to close games as well. The team has used Grant Balfour out of the bullpen, and he'll likely be a middle reliever next season. Rounding out the bullpen will be a mixture of people from Carlos Pulido to Mike Nakamura to Mike Fetters.

    Another area of worry is the starting rotation. The team holds an expensive option on Rick Reed, one that they will surely decline. Kenny Rogers is also a free agent at season end, and will doubtfully be pursued. Joe Mays recently went under the knife, although Eric Milton has returned. So, the team has four starters locked next year: Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Eric Milton, and Kyle Lohse. Look for the team to add another pitcher via free agency, like a Jeff D'Amico, or through a trade.

    What may change the most next season is the infield. Justin Morneau will be ready to play 1B everyday next year, meaning Doug Mientkiewicz will be non-tendered. There have been rumors that Luis Rivas will suffer the same fate, although thats doubtful. Corey Koskie has a team option for next season, and the team will probably pick it up. But they could opt for trying Cuddyer everyday, and to look for a 2B, and give Rivas the boot. Behind the dish, A.J. Pierzynski has one more year before super-prospect Joe Mauer strips his starting spot from him.

    My 2004 Twins lineup:

    1. Shannon Stewart- LF
    2. Luis Rivas- 2B
    3. Jacque Jones- DH/RF
    4. Corey Koskie- 3B
    5. Torii Hunter- CF
    6. Justin Morneau- 1B
    7. LeCroy/Restovich/Ford- RF/DH
    8. A.J. Pierzynski- C
    9. Christian Guzman- SS

    White Sox

    Ken Williams did all he could to put a winning team on the field this season, yet it still failed. Jerry Manuel won't be coaching Chicago next season, and I have my bets on Francone or Willie Randolph. This team has talent, but this may have been their best chance.

    Reports say the team is close to signing Roberto Alomar to a two-year extension. This would be a mistake, as signing Adam Kennedy and platooning him with Tony Graffanino or Aaron Miles would be a better idea. Jose Valentin will be back next season, as will Graff, one of Williams' favorites. And since Alomar is being retained, chances are Sandy Alomar will return for a final hurrah.

    After that, we know Magglio and Frank will be back...little else. There's speculation that Everett won't be brought back, and that either Lee or Konerko will be dealt. I don't think its a bad idea to trade Konerko, but Carlos is one of the prized jewels of this team. Plus...I have his jersey. The team may also bring back Everett, and try to keep a very similar team offensively.

    But what must change, is the pithcing. Loaiza, Buerhle, and Garland are all guaranteed jobs next year. I worry that Colon will opt to leave Chicago, choosing the likes of Boston instead. But Williams will get a starter, and he has long been enfatuated with Sidney Ponson. The fifth spot will be a battle between Scott Scheonweis, Josh Stewart, Dan Wright, and anyone the club may bring in (Lidle?).

    With all these signings, its the bullpen that will suffer. Billy Koch needs to bounce back next season, and Damaso Marte must continue his success. Kelly Wunsch will maintain his great LOOGY skills next year as well. After a good 16 innings in relief, Dan Wright may be back there next season. I've long said his knuckle-curve is suited for relief, where it would give hitters a different look.

    So, what do you trade Konerko for? Prospects. This team could compete next year, but also must be thinking about the future. Bringing back Brian Daubach, and finding a platoon mate for the DH role isn't a bad idea. Then, get a solid pitcher for Konerko, who will replace Buerhle after he leaves in 2004.

    Houston

    There's just no more money left for Drayton McLane. The number one goal is keeping the team it has now, while putting more talented youngsters around them. You would think that means letting Brad Ausmus walk and substituting John Buck in, but the team has said that won't happen.

    So, Buck will be re-signed, and offensively, the team may try to trade Richard Hidalgo. The team made a bad move giving him an extension, but his 2003 makes him tradeable. The Atlanta Braves, after they lose Gary Sheffield, or the Dodgers, are good teams to target. In return, land the fifth starter that you so badly need. Then, start Jason Lane (long overdue) in right.

    Roy Oswalt will probably have offseason groin surgery, and hopefully put that injury behind him. Wade Miller is doing his annual 2nd half tear, teasing fantasy owners that he'll breakout one day. Jeriome Robertson has won 15 games as an NL rookie, good enough to put him fourth on my ballot. And Tim Redding has done a lot of good things as well. The team has enough candidates to fill a spot (Carlos Hernandez, Rodrigo Rosario), but should go after another top-notch arm instead.

    Don't look for any change in the bullpen dominance. Next year the team will be going with Stone and Saarlos full-time, but will probably add a leftie to the mix.

    This team won't be very different in 2004, but Gerry Hunsicker must use Hidalgo's big season as reasoning to land another starting pitcher (Odalis Perez?).

    Chicago Cubs

    Mark my words: there will be no better chance for the Cubs to win the World Series then in 2004. Why?

    Lineup:
    C- Damian Miller, Benito Santiago
    1B- Randall Simon
    2B- Fernando Vina
    SS- Miguel Tejada
    3B- Aramis Ramirez
    LF- Moises Alou
    CF- Corey Patterson
    RF- Sammy Sosa

    1. Mark Prior
    2. Carlos Zambrano
    3. Kerry Wood
    4. Matt Clement
    5. Juan Cruz

    Enough said?

    In conclusion, my 2004 AL Central picks are the Twins and Cubs, same as 2003. I didn't mention the Royals and Cardinals, who both have chances next season. The Brewers may very well finish fourth in the division, and are eyeing a playoff berth in 2006. More on that when I publish my organizational reports, the second week after the regular season ends.

    Have a good day, and watch some baseball!

    WTNYSeptember 17, 2003
    Checkin' on Jonah
    By Bryan Smith

    You may or may not have checked out Jonah Keri's chat on Baseball Prospectus last night. If not, you missed the following:

    Bryan Smith (Chicago): Jonah...please give me five names that will take big leaps next season. Thanks!

    Jonah Keri: Mark Teixeira will have a similar leap to Hank Blalock v03 vs. v02. Brandon Phillips can't help but get better because he was Neifi-riffic this year...actually Neifi put him to shame. Adam Dunn will stay healthy next season, and cut down on his strikeouts just enough to trigger a healthy spike in production. Shawn Green will have a bounceback year after fixing his shoulder. Pat Burrell's 2003 season will look like a weird fluke five years from now.

    The Bryan Smith from the question? Yes, that's me. Luckily, Jonah's answer gave me the subject of today's column. I decided to look into the five players PECOTA cards (a necessary tool and worthy of the Premium subscription), and see if I agreed with Jonah's prediction. I mostly looked for similar players, and decided to see how the rest of their career turned out.

    So, without further adieu...

    1) Mark Teixeira (1B/3B/OF)- What's interesting is that Jonah chose this, after I had started to prepare writing an article on him. I agree that Teixeira has some good years ahead of him, anything from winning the HR crown to leading the league in average.

    What I don't agree with, however, are the PECOTA comparisons. While Nate Silver's computer throws names out like Dwight Evans and Jack Clark, my own research led me to Frank Howard, Billy Williams, and Ron Kittle. Let's look at these three players in their rookie seasons:

    Howard (1960)- 268/320/464 23HR 77RBI 32BB/108K in 448AB
    Williams (1961)- 278/338/484 25HR 86RBI 45BB/70K in 529AB
    Kittle (1983)- 254/314/504 35HR 100RBI 39BB/150K in 520AB

    Teixeira (2003)- 259/332/477 23HR 77RBI 41BB/112K in 486AB

    I think the best of these three comps is Howard, although I wouldn't rule out the incredible career of Howard. He didn't do well the next year, a season shortened by injury. But Howard was a four-time All-Star, including three seasons above forty homers. He never topped a .300BA though, and I do think Teixeira has the capability to do that.

    If I was to use Billy Williams as an example, Billy kept his homers around 25-30 his whole career, but increased his batting average. Williams finished his career a .290 hitter, but topped the .300 mark multiple times.

    Mark Teixeira could go either way, although next season we should begin to see his true potential. In 2004, Teixeira will likely start hitting in the fifth hole, settling behind Alex Rodriguez and Hank Blalock. They'll be ducks on the pond...can Teixeira deliver?

    2) Brandon Phillips (2B)- I'm not so sure on Phillips. Jonah's reasoning for improvement is basically, 'He really can't do any worse.' Yes, Phillips is hitting 208/242/311 this season, which is even below PECOTA's 10th percentile guess of 217/278/337. He barely hit the Mendoza line in AAA, and is looking more like Wilson Betemit than Nomar Garciaparra.

    PECOTA threw some interesting comparisons this way, including Jose Valdivielso, a 50s SS with a short history, Bobby Valentine, and Paul Blair. For a Phillips' fan, one can hope for Paul Blair, whom was a tiny OF with Baltimore in the 1970s. Here's a look at Blair's rookie season, then that of Phillips:

    Blair ('65)- 234/302/338 5HR 19 2B 8SB in 364AB
    Phillips- 205/239/308 6HR 16 2B 4SB in 347AB

    Very similar. Their body types are very similar (Blair was 6' and 171lb. to Phillips 5'11'' and 180), and both were good at defense. Phillips showed power promise in the minors, and Blair converted that in the Majors. His high was 26, although he also posted numbers of 18 and 17.

    Paul Blair was sensational in 1969, becoming a 20/20 player, gold-glove outfielder, and made his career high in batting average. Don't be surprised if Phillips has a breakout season like that at one point before his career is over. But next year? No, look for numbers along the 250/320/400 line next season.

    3. Adam Dunn (OF/1B)- Yes, this may just be Prospectus' way of hoping a former cover boy doesn't go bad. They've had bad luck with Dunn, and Josh Phelps hasn't exactly been sensational this year. Dunn had a bad 2003, in which contact posed to be a huge problem. He showed the unique ability to near 30 homers and the Mendoza line. But at the same time, he can still manage an OBP around .350.

    This is an extremely hard player to compare, as not many people (ever) have had the batting eye he does. PECOTA threw out some interesting names, but perhaps none better than Tom Brunansky. The former Twins all-star outfielder is a good comparison, although he wasn't capable of 100 walks in a season (he maxed at 86). Here's a look at the first three seasons each had:

    Brunansky '82: 272/377/471 20HR 46RBI in 463AB
    Brunansky '83: 227/308/445 28HR 82RBI in 542AB
    Brunansky '84: 254/320/460 32HR 85RBI in 567AB

    Dunn 2001: 262/371/578 19HR 43RBI in 244AB
    Dunn 2002: 249/400/454 26HR 71RBI in 535AB
    Dunn 2003: 215/354/465 27HR 57RBI in 381AB

    One glaring difference is the fact that Brunansky steadily improved his first three seasons, and Dunn has made serious declines. Bob Boone did a lot of stupid things this season, like putting him at leadup, but this was still a lost year. He has a very long swing, and pitchers exploit it often. I think there's a good chance Dunn will hang around the .250 mark for his career, but that means OBP of .375, and he should knock about 40HR.

    Brunansky? No, he never hit the 40HR mark. He maxed out at 32, the same year he was selected to the Midsummer classic. What's noteworthy is that it was his fourth year.

    4. Shawn Green (OF)- Shawn Green is a superstar, and this season shouldn't take that away from him. In the past, Shawn has put up some insane numbers at one of the game's hardest stadiums, Chavez Ravine. But Green has to use the rest of his career to prove that hitting 91HR in two seasons wasn't a fluke.

    That being said, I wasn't all that surprised when PECOTA spit out Roger Maris, responsible for the largest fluke season ever. But I looked past Maris, and Don Baylor, another PECOTA comp. Instead, I focused on Rocky Colavito, the six-time All-Star. Colavito played from 1955-1968, hitting 374 HR, and appearing on MVP ballots three times. Here's a look at Colavito from 1061-1063, when he took his huge plunge:

    RC 1961: 290/402/580 45HR in 583AB
    RC 1962: 273/371/514 37HR in 601AB
    RC 1962: 271/358/437 22HR in 597AB

    And here's a recap of what Green is on the verge of:

    SG 2001: 297/372/598 49HR in 619AB
    SG 2002: 285/385/558 42HR in 582AB
    SG 2003: 276/349/453 17HR in 561AB

    Insanely similar numbers! Both had MVP-type seasons in the first season I listed, a small dropoff the next year, and a tailspan in the latter year. What was especially noteworthy was how the average remained in tact, but the SLG% fell out from underneath the player.

    Colavito hit 34HR the next season, boosting his OPS back to where it belonged. After that a residual decline led to the end of his career, and a quiet retirement. Shawn Green could have a very similar couple of seasons, returning to 2002 form next year, before slowly walking away.

    5) Pat Burrell (OF)- Probably the largest mystery of 2003, and the reason the Phillies haven't locked a Wild Card berth. Burrell was signed to an extension prior to this season, and now has underperformed the PECOTA 10th percentile projection. Jonah suggests that this is just an aberration, yet a similar comparison yields different results.

    In 1974, the American League posted low offensive numbers, allowing 23-year-old outfielder Jeff Burroughs to win the MVP. Burroughs followed it up with a pathetic 1975, and was gone as quickly as he had come. A look into Burroughs '74 and '75:

    Burroughs '74: 301/397/504 25HR 118RBI in 554AB
    Burroughs '75: 226/315/409 29HR 94RBI in 585AB

    And now let's compare that to Pat the Bat:

    Burrell 2002: 282/376/544 37HR 116RBI in 586AB
    Burrell 2003: 212/316/419 21HR 63RBI in 485AB

    Another very similar comparison. After his horrible 1975, Burroughs saw his SLG drop even more to .369 in 1976, before re-emerging. He caught on again in 1977, hitting 41HR, and was a 1978 All-Star. While Burroughs sat in a two-year slump, I find it more plausible that Burrell will rebound next year. Will he hit 40HR? Probably not, but at this point the Phillies are praying for baby steps.

    Here's my 2004 predictions for all these hitters:

    Mark Teixeira- 275/350/500
    Brandon Phillips- 250/320/400
    Adam Dunn- 240/360/480
    Shawn Green- 290/380/500
    Pat Burrell- 250/340/450

    Back tomarrow...

    WTNYSeptember 16, 2003
    Revamping the Worst World Series (2002)
    By Bryan Smith

    It's not very difficult to argue that the 2002 World Series was the worst of all-time. It gave viewers two Wild Cards, that used two weeks of good play to make the Big Dance. The Angels proved sabermatricians wrong by showing us that clutch hitting really does matter, and showed MLB the flaws in the playoff roster rules. The Giants used the fear of one batter, Barry Bonds, to revolutionize the way baseball is played.

    In 2003, we have seen these teams spiral into two different directions. Anaheim is very close to becoming the first American League team to win the World Series, and then finish in last place. Injuries and lack of luck have brought the Angels record down, along with playing some of the worst 2nd half ball in the Majors. The Giants, on the other hand, have had this division for a couple of months now. Barry Bonds has spent numerous days away from the team, as has potential Cy Young winner Jason Schmidt. But the team has fought through all of this, and is threatening to finish with the best record in the National League.

    In the news this week, Barry Bonds has flirted with the possibility of retiring in 60 days. We have to look at where this would take the Giants, and how new ownership will effect the Angels...

    Angels Free Agents
    Brad Fullmer (DH)
    Eric Owens (OF)

    San Francisco Free Agents
    Rich Aurilla (SS)
    Marvin Benard (OF)
    Andres Galarraga (1B)
    Jeffrey Hammonds (OF)
    Sidney Ponson (SP)
    Benito Santiago (C)
    Tim Worrell (RP)
    Eric Young (2B)
    MUTUAL OPTION- Jose Cruz Jr. (OF)
    MUTUAL OPTION- Felix Rodriguez (RP)
    TEAM OPTION- J.T. Snow (1B)

    After a World Championship, Angels' management was perfectly content keeping the same team, not seeing any holes. This disappointing season has created new thought. In the last month, I've heard the following rumors:

    1) Lee Sinins reported in the Sept. 10 ATM report that Bill Stoneman has a starting pitcher on the top of his wish list. Sinins mentions free agents Bartolo Colon, Kevin Millwood, Greg Maddux, or acquiring Javier Vazquez or Livan Hernandez through trades.

    2) The team has expressed interest in SS Miguel Tejada, and on September 9th, Tejada expressed interest in the team as well. The team has also been linked to Japanese SS Kaz Matsui.

    3) Carlos Beltran has also been reported (by the LA Times) to be high on the Angels' wish list.

    Peter Gammons has reported the team will non-tender Adam Kennedy, and would like to get rid of Darin Erstad. By pursuing a SS in Tejada or even Matsui, the team is moving everyone's favorite player David Eckstein to second. The team will go with Bengie Molina, Scott Spiezio, and Aaron Sele one more season before the likes of Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman, Ervin Santana, and Bobby Jenks take over.

    Darin Erstad's nagging hamstring may move him to 1B, or him and Tim Salmon could take tuns filling the empty DH hole. Ideally, the team's lineup would include the following:
    C- Bengie Molina
    1B- Scott Spiezio/Darin Erstad
    2B- David Eckstein
    SS- Free Agent
    3B- Troy Glaus
    LF- Garret Anderson
    CF- Free Agent
    RF- Tim Salmon
    DH- Erstad/Wooten/Quinlan

    Until Santana and Jenks come in, the Angels have a front four locked into the rotation. Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz, John Lackey, and Aaron Sele all have jobs in their back pocket next season. Scot Shields had an opportunity to claim that fifth spot, but the team is convinced he is better suited for middle relief.

    So, that leaves the team holes at SS, CF, and SP. Granted, the team could go with Alfredo Amezaga or Chone Figgins at short, Jeff DaVanon in center, and Shields in the rotation. But, this new ownership needs to put a winner back on the field, and try to prove that the 2002 version wasn't a fluke.

    There is no questioning the team's ability to trade for any players, as Dallas McPherson would likely go to Kansas City in a Beltran trade. Alberto Callapso, ranked in my top 10 2B list, also could be dealt. The team has a host of pitchers besides Santana and Jenks, like Joe Torres, with considerable upside.

    I think the Angels should go hard after Tejada, who has shown interest in the team. After landing him, the team could platoon Davanon and Figgins in center. Then, trade Amezaga and former prospect Chris Bootcheck for Livan Hernandez. This would give the team offensive threats, a much better defense, and more innings from their starters.

    Moving on to the Giants...

    First, let's say Barry doesn't leave. Inside we all know he wants that record, and the money he is passing up is insane. Here is the 2nd half performances of the four potential Giant free agents:

    Snow (1B)- .253/.346/.341 in 91AB
    Cruz (RF)- .220/.333/.295 in 173AB
    Santiago (C)- .231/.294/.343 in 108AB

    Aurilia (SS)- .319/.353/.431 in 144AB

    Outside of Aurilia, the other losses won't exactly be devastating. Snow and Cruz have fallen out of Alou's favor, and the Giants will almost surely decline their options. Santiago's age and decline in stats should lead to his exit.

    But Aurilia is a different story. The SS played injured the first half, managing an OPS of only .709. But this big 2nd half with an OPS of .789 has changed things, and Aurilia is looking to be a big free agent once again. But with Tejada and Matsui grabbing most of the attention, there appears to be nowhere to go. My guess is the Giants will retain Aurilia, whom has spent his career in a Giants uniform.

    So, from an offensive standpoint, the team has some holes. They'll probably allow Yorvit Torrealba to get the full-time job next season, but will likely sign an able backup just in case. First base and right field are huge questions. Don't be surprised if the first base job goes to Pedro Feliz, whom has never gotten a full-time job here. The team will pursue older options in the outfield, toying with players like Rondell White and Reggie Sanders.

    Now to the pitching...

    It wasn't long ago that the Giants had the best Major League ready pitching prospect depth in the minors. Jerome Williams has now hit the big stage...by himself. Kurt Ainsworth suffered a horrific accident in April, and then was traded in July. And top prospect Jesse Foppert was in the Majors for 21 starts, but will likely be out until 2005 with arm surgery. That leaves the team a little more short-armed than they would have hoped for.

    Jason Schmidt, whom has elevated himself into true ace status, is re-signed next season. As is Kirk Rueter, whom the Giants need to have a successful and healthy 2004. Jerome Williams has done good in his first Major League trial, and could be prepared for a Sophmore jump. But, this team simply can't have the likes of Jim Brower, Kevin Correia, and Dustin Hermanson filling out this rotation.

    Sidney Ponson has pitched great since coming from Baltimore, using Pac Bell's spacious dimensions to his advantage. The team would love to re-sign him, but it will be difficult. He rejected a 3-year, $21M offer from the Orioles, something the Giants would be hard-pressed to beat. Among others, the White Sox should be hot after his trail this winter, and the Giants might lose.

    In the bullpen, the team will hope Robb Nen returns to full form next year. Felix Rodriguez will be gone next year, as the team is getting sick of flirting with his successes. I expect them to bring Tim Worrell back, unless some team considerably tops the team's offer. And Joe Nathan will return, whom is quickly becoming one of the Majors' best at retiring right-handers.

    Brian Sabean must not worry about Barry Bonds this offseason, but rather have his mind here:

    - Is re-signing Rich Aurilia necessary to this offense?
    - Can Pedro Feliz hit 30HR in 500AB?
    - Who could be the 2002 version of Reggie Sanders in 2003?
    - What is the next option for SP holes if Ponson walks?

    And the answers: yes, yes, Carl Everett/Raul Mondesi, try Brian Anderson and Pat Hentgen (flyballers) in the SP holes.

    FACT: The 2004 Angels will not win the AL West.
    PREDICTION: The 2004 Giants will finish below the San Diego Padres.

    Have a good one...

    WTNYSeptember 15, 2003
    Left Disappointed
    By Bryan Smith

    There are not many baseball publications I look forward to reading more than Sports Weekly and Baseball America. But this weekend, these two sensational magazines left me more than disappointed.

    On Friday, I looked at the Baseball America Player of the Year award. Again, the 10 candidates were:

    1. Josh Barfield- 2B- Padres- High A- 20 years old

    2. Travis Blackley- LHP- Mariners- AA- 20 years old

    3. Bobby Crosby- SS- Athletics- AAA- 23 years old

    4. Prince Fielder- 1B- Brewes- low-A- 20 years old

    5. Zack Greinke- RHP- Royals- high-A/AA- 19 years old

    6. Joe Mauer- C- Twins- high-A/AA- 20 years old

    7. Dallas McPherson- 3B- Angels- 23 years old

    8. Greg Miller- LHP- Dodgers- High-A/AA- 18 years old

    9. Jeremy Reed- OF- White Sox- High-A/AA- 23 years old

    10. Alexis Rios- OF- Blue Jays- AA- 22 years old

    The condition of having a prospect win the award was a need for Baseball America, taking out players like Fernando Seguignol. But, all these ten players are prospects, so shouldn't the winner go to the player with the best numbers?

    Here's my pick vs. Baseball America's choice

    Wait 'Til Next Year Choice:
    High-A (222AB): .333/.431/.477 4HR/52RBI 41BB/17K 27SB
    AA (242AB): .409/.474/.591 7HR/43RBI 29BB/19K 18SB
    Notes: Led minor leagues in average, made 3E playing CF, RF

    Baseball America Choice:
    High-A (233AB): .335/.395/.412 1HR/44RBI 24BB/24K 3SB
    AA (276AB): .341/.400/.453 4HR/41RBI 25BB/25K 0SB
    Notes: Threw out 57% of potential base stealers behind plate

    So, Jeremy Reed (Wait 'Til Next Year's selection) won out in AVE, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, BB/K, and SB, but lost? Granted, Joe Mauer, the official 2003 Baseball America Player of the Year, has great defensive value, but very subpar numbers. Surely, Baseball America took this into account.

    No, they just wanted to give their #1 prospect in all of baseball another award for his shelf. This seems like in Little League when the All-Star teams are made up of coaches' sons rather than the best players. Jeremy Reed had the best season of anyone in the minor leagues, but he wasn't chose because Mauer is Baseball America's favorite player.

    Moving on...

    In the September 10-16 edition of Sports Weekly, the magazine gave their final Organizational Power Rankings. These are supposed to dictate teams' farm systems, but they also include the progress of rookies into the rankings. The magazine's list follows, with an occasional comment from the magazine:

    1. Cleveland Indians- "Some conspicuous failures, but ample successes too"
    2. Texas Rangers
    3. New York Mets- "Lower levels indicate a return to the glory days of great pitching"
    4. Kansas City Royals- "Lots of right-handers...recent first-rounders doing well"
    5. Toronto Blue Jays- "The best upper-level talent"
    6. Pittsburgh Pirates
    7. Arizona Diamondbacks
    8. Milwaukee Brewers- "Nearly all of their blue-chippers...performed well"
    9. Baltimore Orioles
    10. Oakland Athletics
    11. Minnesota Twins
    12. Atlanta Braves
    13. Anaheim Angels- "One more year before the good ones arrive"
    14. Houston Astros- "Decent progress among prospects"
    15. Florida Marlins- "Trades cut into an already-thin talent corps"
    16. Seattle Mariners- "Top-heavy on pitching"
    17. Chicago Cubs- "Some terrific young arms"
    18. Philadelphia Phillies
    19. Colorado Rockies
    20. Los Angeles Dodgers- "Pitching on the way, but that's it"
    21. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    22. Montreal Expos
    23. San Francisco Giants- "but their top-pitchers...weren't as successful"
    24. San Diego Padres
    25. Boston Red Sox
    26. Cincinnati Reds
    27. Detroit Tigers- "There was a ton of talent at low-A West Michigan"
    28. St. Louis Cardinals- "Star-quality players aren't apparent"
    29. Chicago White Sox- "A few semi-breakouts, but much more of the opposite"
    30. New York Yankees- "Injuries, trades, overhyped disappointments and infighting have decimated a system"

    Now I have yet to complete a final list, so I'll probably make some ignorant comments too. Why I thought thought those comments were bad:

    - You mean to tell me the best thing they could say about their top choice was they had "ample successes" to go along with "conspicuous failures"? While I agree the Indians have a deep farm system, I don't think this was a banner year.
    - They say the Royals recent-first rounders are doing well? Yes, Zack Greinke had an amazing season. But Colt Griffin, Mike Todolka, and Kyle Snyder remain disappointments.
    - And the system that has "The best upper-level talent" only checks in at five? You can be sure the Blue Jays will be in my top 2.
    - My number one choice will likely be the Milwaukee Brewers. If "nearly all of their blue chippers...performed well" then why are they all the way down at 8? You mean Palmisano, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Krynzel, Parra, and Jones isn't enough for you?
    - "One more year before the good ones arrive." That seems to be an optimistic statement, and I think the Angels have a ton to look forward to. Of my top prospect lists, they had a catcher, first basemen, and third basemen in the top 2, with a second basemen and two pitchers also in my rankings. Their system will be in my top 5 for sure.
    - "Decent progress among prospects" and "Trades cut into already thin corps" were still AHEAD of systems that were touted to be "Top-heavy on pitching" and having "some terrific young arms." The Cubs and Mariners are DEFINITLY above the Astros and Marlins.
    - "Pitching on the way, but that's it." About the Dodgers? I think Koyie Hill, James Loney, and Franklyn Gutierrez all are solid players. In fact, Loney and Gutierrez can make arguments for being two of the top 30 sluggers in baseball.
    - If any level of your system has "a ton of talent", you probably shouldn't be twenty-seven. Granted, the Tigers won't be too far up on my own rankings, but I won't complement their talent to justify my position.
    - The White Sox and Yankees are too low. A few semi-breakouts, but much more of the opposite. Yes, Corwin Malone and Joe Borchard fell out of favor for the Sox. But Jeremy Reed, Ryan Wing, and Emencio Pacheco broke out, and that doesn't begin to talk about Kris Honel and Aaron Miles.
    - It says that trades have hurt the Yankees system? Yet in fact, they received more prospects in Raul Mondesi and Robin Ventura than they paid for Aaron Boone.
    - Finally, the Cards are last. Its true that "star-quality players aren't apparent." Well guess what? Jeremy Reed, Kris Honel, Dioner Navarro, and Rudy Guillen are all better than any Cardinal prospect.

    Enough complaining. I'm really working on my own organizational rankings, but I can't agree on a final copy. I'm shooting for some time this week, but I have a lot planned this week.

    I should say that while I'm truly disappointed by these two magazines, I will still be an avid reader of both. And you'll see me referring to Baseball America a lot on this site.

    And don't even get me started on the Billy Beane chat...

    WTNYSeptember 12, 2003
    And the Player of the Year goes to...
    By Bryan Smith

    I'd like to start out today mentioning that yesterday I promised today would yield organizational rankings. I lied. These are the most difficult of all to place in order, and I should have it up by the weekend. Instead, today's theme is a little more timely.

    Today, at 12PM Eastern time, Baseball America will be announcing their 2003 Player of the Year. Past winners:

    2002: Rocco Baldelli
    2001: Josh Beckett
    2000: Jon Rauch
    1999: Rick Ankiel
    1998: Eric Chavez
    1997: Paul Konerko
    1995 AND 1996: Andruw Jones
    1994: Derek Jeter

    While Ankiel and Rauch don't fit the bill, the rest of these players have turned out to be very successful. Its a highly prestigious award, that takes a few questions into play:

    - Is a player dominating A-ball less impressive than a AA pitcher doing well?
    - Is a 18-year-old doing well better than a similar 22-year-old?
    - Are hitters in the middle infield more impressive than those at first base, and are southpaws better than right-handers?

    For a Player of the Year Award, the answers should be yes, no, and sometimes. The Baseball America award is usually given to someone whom has at least reached AA, and hardly ever given to a low-A player. Those levels contain hitters learning to use wooden bats, and pitchers learning to throw the ball over the plate.

    While an 18-year-old will normally make for a better prospect than someone 4 years older than him, it doesn't matter for this Award. This should go to the most dominant player, taking out the Fernando Seguignols of the world.

    Finally, position and what arm you use are taken into account, but only when the hitting or pitching is equal. A shortstop hitting even with a first basemen is more apt to win the award, but only if their offensive statistics are extremely close. And, left-handers are less common in the Majors, which should help their minor league status. But the player must clearly dominate his fellow right-hander to use that in the court of arguing this award.

    And now, to the contestants:

    1. Josh Barfield- 2B- Padres- High A- 20 years old
    Numbers: .337/.389/.530 16HR/128RBI 16SB
    Accolades: California League MVP; minor league RBI leader

    2. Travis Blackley- LHP- Mariners- AA- 20 years old
    Numbers: 17-3 2.61 125H/162.1IP 144K/62BB
    Accolades: Texas League Pitcher of the Year
    1st in W, 2nd in ERA, and 4th in K

    3. Bobby Crosby- SS- Athletics- AAA- 23 years old
    Numbers: .308/.395/.544 22HR/90RBI 24SB
    Accolades: PCL All-Star AND Rookie of the Year
    3rd in R and 5th in RBI in PCL

    4. Prince Fielder- 1B- Brewes- low-A- 20 years old
    Numbers: .313/.409/.526 27HR/112 RBI 2SB
    Accolades: Midwest League MVP and #1 prospect
    Led league in RBI, 2nd in HR, 3rd in AVE

    5. Zack Greinke- RHP- Royals- high-A/AA- 19 years old
    Cumulative numbers: 15-4 1.93 114H/140IP 112K/18BB
    Accolades: Carolina League Pitcher of the Year

    6. Joe Mauer- C- Twins- high-A/AA- 20 years old
    Cumulative Numbers: .338/.398/.440 5HR/85RBI
    Accolades: FSL All-Star, Eastern League Player of hte Month

    7. Dallas McPherson- 3B- Angels- 23 years old
    Cumulative Numbers: .310/.410/.596 23HR/86RBI 16SB
    Accolades: California League All-Star

    8. Greg Miller- LHP- Dodgers- High-A/AA- 18 years old
    Cumulative Numbers: 12-5 2.21 118H/142.1IP 151K/48BB
    Accolades: FSL All-Star; 0.97 ERA in last 14 starts

    9. Jeremy Reed- OF- White Sox- High-A/AA- 23 years old
    Cumulative Numbers: .373/.452/.540 11HR/95RBI 45SB
    Accolades: Led Minor Leagues in Batting Average
    Hit .409 in 242 AA at-bats

    10. Alexis Rios- OF- Blue Jays- AA- 22 years old
    Numbers: .352/.402/.521 11HR/82RBI 11SB
    Accolades: Eastern League All-Star
    Led league in hits, AVE

    And now to the first elimination round...
    Joining us in Round 2 are:

    1. Travis Blackley (SEA)- LHP
    2. Prince Fielder (MIL)- 1B
    3. Zack Greinke (KC)- RHP
    4. Greg Miller (LA)- LHP
    5. Jeremy Reed (CWS)- OF

    I did this for a couple of reasons. First off, while Crosby, Mauer, McPherson, and Rios had great seasons, they were overshadowed. None of them won an MVP trophy, and many have glaring weaknesses. Crosby's average is too low to win the award; Mauer only hit 5 homers! McPherson has an average that is still too low, and Rios needs a boost in slugging percentage.

    The hardest cut was Barfield. Not only was he the California League MVP and a second basemen, he led the minors in RBI. But his numbers are dwarfed by those of Fielder. Barfield has a low OBP, due to a poor K/BB rate. This is not Jeremy Reed's problem, who finished the year with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts.

    Another interesting move was not cutting any pitchers. Greinke has impressed me ever since going to the Winter League less than six months removed from high school graduation. Blackley almost won the Texas League pitching Triple Crown, and Miller was my top pitching prospect.

    More eliminations...
    The final three are...

    1. Travis Blackley (SEA)
    2. Prince Fielder (MIL)
    3. Jeremy Reed (CWS)

    I chose to eliminate the pitchers for a couple of reasons. First, while Greinke's final numbers look great, he finished the year a little poorly with high hit rates in AA. He's a sensational pitcher, but that tarnished his status. And Miller finished great, with the aforementioned 0.97 ERA in his last 14, but started too slow. His FSL numbers aren't good enough to be Player of the Year material.

    We have it narrowed down to an Australian pitcher, former All-Star's son, and a lesser known college star.

    Now for the final run-down...

    Finishing in Third Place, due to facing subpar pitchers, and despite posting great numbers is PRINCE FIELDER.

    Finishing in Second Place, because his strikeout rates aren't good enough to be POY material is TRAVIS BLACKLEY.

    Which means that JEREMY REED, an unknown before 2003, has risen to take the official Wait 'Til Next Year Player of the Year, or WTNYPOY. Reed finished the season keeping his average above .400. He doesn't have great home run power, but stole 45 bases off good baserunning. Reed has the ability to play all three outfield positions, but profiles best in right. There is no better prospect in the game at understanding the strike zone, and Reed should reach the Majors next season.

    When I give my organizational rankings this weekend, we'll recap to see if Baseball America agreed. Thanks and have a good weekend!

    WTNYSeptember 10, 2003
    No Sheehan, TISTAPP! Here's my 50...
    By Bryan Smith

    Baseball Prospectus, namely Joe Sheehan, are staunch believers that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. I disagree with this whole heartedly, maybe because I'm more of a prospect-fanatic than the normal (and sane) male. But while I agree that there are a number of factors preventing these players from making out, I'm not about to miss the next Dontrelle, the next Prior, the next Pedro.

    My goal, is that through reading this site that you won't either. After plugging some numbers and using some odd thought, I have compiled my top 50 pitching prospects.

    Dayn Perry wrote a series of articles on Prospectus writing what the current group of elite pitchers did in their minor league seasons. The consensus was that the upmost echelon of Major League pitchers dominate just average hurlers in H/9 in the minors. This was the most deciding factor in my ranking of pitchers, although age, level, scouting reports (from Baseball America) and what arm a pitcher uses were also important.

    Here's the top 50 with periodical breaks so that I can semi-defend myself (stars by name indicate pitcher is left-handed):
    1.Greg Miller (LA) *
    2. Zack Greinke (KC)
    3. Cole Hamels (PHI) *
    4. John Maine (BAL)
    5. Clint Nageotte (SEA)
    6. Edwin Jackson (LA)
    7. Scott Kazmir (NYM) *
    8. Gavin Floyd (PHI)
    9. Merkin Valdez (SF)
    10. John VanBenschoten (PIT)
    11. Adam Wainwright (ATL)
    12. Ervin Santana (ANA)
    13. Angel Guzman (CHC)
    14. Joe Blanton (OAK)

    This is where the top group of pitchers end. Miller got the nod over Greinke for a couple of reasons:
    - He's younger (Miller-18; Greinke-19)
    - He did more at AA (Miller 1-1 1.01; Greinke 4-3 3.23)
    - He's a leftie
    - He'll pitch in Dodger Stadium
    That's about it. Miller will likely make his debut as a 19-year-old, which Edwin Jackson (#6) missed out on by a day. Jackson now has a rotation spot, and shouldn't yield that for a career.

    To the second tier:

    15. Fausto Carmona (CLE)
    16. Bryan Bullington (PIT)
    17. Bobby Jenks (ANA)
    18. Travis Blackley (SEA) *
    19. Jeff Francis (COL) *
    20. Andy Sisco (CHC) *
    21. Vince Perkins (TOR)
    22. Chadd Blasko (CHC)
    23. David Bush (TOR)
    24. Felix Hernandez (SEA) *
    25. Dan Meyer (ATL) *

    Break. A couple of names will probably jump off the page that other sources don't agree with. Chadd Blasko is higher on my lists than many, but he did go 10-5 with a 1.98 ERA in 136.1 Florida State League innings. And while putting a 17-year-old in the 24th spot sounds insane, he truly was the dominant player in the Northwest League. Jeff Francis and Bobby Jenks finished the year as the two hottest pitchers, and definitly got recognition from me.

    Moving on:

    26. Joel Zumaya (DET)
    27. Mike Jones (MIL)
    28. Manny Parra (MIL) *
    29. Bobby Brownlie (CHC)
    30. Juan Dominguez (TEX)
    31. Dustin McGowan (TOR)
    32. Justin Jones (CHC) *
    33. Denny Bautista (BAL)
    34. Adam Loewen (BAL) *

    Another pause. Milwaukee dominated yesterday's positional rankings, and do really have two top-30 caliber pitchers. Bobby Brownlie may not have thrown a lot, but he did great in the FSL with limited arm strength. Adam Loewen is also hard to judge, but he has top-10 potential. Zumaya, a Tiger, was put on the list for striking out 126 in 90.1 innings, but he may be a candidate for an arm injury.

    Nearing the end...

    35. Matt Peterson (NYM)
    36. Kris Honel (CHW)
    37. Mike Hinckley (MON)
    38. Joel Hanrahan (LA)
    39. Jorge De La Rosa (BOS) *
    40. Matt Riley (BAL) *
    41. Francisco Cruceta (CLE)
    42. Macay McBride (ATL) *
    43. Jon Connolly (DET) *

    This is a group of misfits. We have a former college star in Peterson, a high-school first rounder in Honel, a former top-prospect in Riley, and a soft-throwing leftie in Connolly. The latter may have had the most remarkable season in the minors (16-3, 1.41), but his K numbers (104/166) don't get him love from scouts.

    Rounding out the 50...

    44. Luis Martinez (MIL) *
    45. Sean Burnett (PIT) *
    46. J.D. Durbin (MIN)
    47. Brandon Claussen (CIN) *
    48. Bubba Nelson (ATL)
    49. Rett Johnson (SEA)
    50. Seung Song (MON)

    Mostly AA players who have solid hit rates but below average strikeout numbers. Claussen is a sensational story, and may turn out to be the 2004 Reds' ace. Luis Martinez is already pitching in the Majors, and most of these players aren't far behind.

    OK, to recap, here's the top teams:
    1. Chicago Cubs- 5
    2. Three teams with 4
    - Baltimore Orioles
    - Atlanta Braves
    - Seattle Mariners
    3. Four teams with 3
    - Los Angeles Dodgers
    - Pittsburgh Pirates
    - Toronto Blue Jays
    - Milwaukee Brewers

    The Cubs and Braves are no surprise, they've been breeding arms for years. Baltimore has welcomed all four, in one way or another, to the franchise in about one season. The Blue Jays need for pitching will be replenished soon, and this list doesn't even include players like Brandon League and Francisco Rosario.

    I should also mention that I didn't include any of the recent drafted players. I think Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer, and Jeff Allison are all top-50 worthy, but they should prove it in professional baseball first.

    Tomorrow I will try to make the organizational rankings, which is always a difficult task.

    Before I go, I want to mention a new blog you should read, entitled "West 116th St.". Irina Paley has the makings of a good blog, and I won't discredit her too much for being a New Yorker.

    Come back tomorrow...

    WTNYSeptember 10, 2003
    Positional Prospect Rankings
    By Bryan Smith

    Next couple of days you're going to see a lot of rankings from me. Be prepared. Today, we'll go with positions, and tomorrow I'll make an attempt on pitchers. Here we go:

    Catchers
    1. Joe Mauer- MIN
    2. Jeff Mathis- ANA
    3. Guillermo Quiroz- TOR
    4. Dioner Navarro- NYY
    5. Justin Huber- NYM
    6. Kelly Shoppach- BOS
    7. Lou Palmisano- MIL
    8. Ryan Doumit- PIT
    9. Koyie Hill- LA
    10. Hector Gimenez- HOU

    The top five players on this list have very high potential. Mauer hasn't hit for power yet, but may post Pudge numbers in the Majors. Mathis seems to be more like Mike Piazza offensively, and is raw defensively. Quiroz had a great year, even playing through a collapsed lung. Navarro may end up being the top performer, but needs to prove that .350 in AA isn't a joke. And Huber got off to a slow start, but should move Piazza to first by 2005.

    FIRST BASE
    1. Prince Fielder- MIL
    2. Casey Kotchman- ANA
    3. Jason Stokes- FLA
    4. Brad Nelson- MIL
    5. James Loney- LA
    6. Adrian Gonzalez- TEX
    7. Larry Broadway- MON
    8. Ryan Howard- PHI
    9. Criag Brazell- NYM
    10. Adam LaRoche- ATL

    This group was really bit by the wrist injury bug. Five of the top six players had wrist injuries that truly effected their seasons. Power potential is the reason that Fielder, Stokes, and Howard have high rankings. I love Kotchman, but Fielder simply has more potential. LaRoche will be the first of the group to hit the Majors, getting an everyday job next year.

    SECOND BASE
    1. Richie Weeks- MIL
    2. Josh Barfield- SD
    3. Scott Hairston- ARI
    4. Jayson Nix- COL
    5. Jason Bourgeois- TEX
    6. Robinson Cano- NYY
    7. Chris Burke- HOU
    8. Alberto Callaspo- ANA
    9. Victor Diaz- NYM
    10. Mike Fontenot- BAL

    Second straight number one for Milwaukee. Barfield proved it this season, but Weeks could fly through the minors. Its a good group of players, and I think Cano tends to be largely overrated. The Yankees will probably use that to snag some awesome Major League talent, and then Cano will show he's still just a .260 hitter. Nix in Coors Field could be a mean mix, and he should start hitting his stride in 2006.

    SHORTSTOP
    1. B.J. Upton- TB
    2. Khalil Greene- SD
    3. J.J. Hardy- MIL
    4. Bobby Crosby- OAK
    5. Sergio Santos- ARI
    6. Freddy Sanchez- PIT
    7. Hanley Ramirez- BOS
    8. Russ Adams- TOR
    9. Jose Lopez- SEA
    10. Jason Bartlett- MIN

    Upton is by far the best of the bunch. He draws walks, and showed improved defense as the year went on. A mix between Jeter and Nomar is the guess right now, and he has tons of potenial. Upton should be the favorite for the 2005 Rookie of the Year award. Notice its the second, 2nd place finish for a Padres middle infield prospect, and the third straight Brewer in the top 3. I think Hanley Ramirez is overrated, and most likely to fall in the Wilson Betemit hole. Theo Epstein will probably wait one more season before using Hanley wisely.

    THIRD BASE
    1. Andy Marte- ATL
    2. Dallas McPherson- ANA
    3. Corey Hart- MIL
    4. David Wright- NYM
    5. Chad Tracy- ARI
    6. Ian Stewart- COL
    7. Jeff Baker- COL
    8. Garrett Atkins- COL
    9. Kevin Youkilis- BOS
    10. Mark Teahen- OAK

    Not the greatest group. I really like Andy Marte, who is a more powerful, but slower, version of Upton. He understands the strike zone, and has been young for his level. McPherson caught fire at the end of the year, and the Angels may allow high-priced Troy Glaus to leave to make way for this kid. Ian Stewart, a top-15 pick in this year's draft, hit more than 10 HR in less than 250AB in Short-Season league, and gets the top Rockie vote. Colorado has three players in the top 10!

    OUTFIELDERS
    1. Jeremy Reed- CWS
    2. Alexis Rios- TOR
    3. Franklin Gutierrez- LA
    4. Grady Sizemore- CLE
    5. Jeff Salazar- COL
    6. Felix Pie- CHC
    7. Jeff Francoeur- ATL
    8. Delmon Young- TB
    9. Jeffrey Hermida- FLA
    10. Dave Krynzel- MIL

    Reed gets the top-place vote for keeping his AA average over .400 for almost 250 at-bats. He's a smart hitter, smart runner, and smart fielder. If he makes the White Sox out of Spring Training, he's the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Rios and Sizemore are good hitters who haven't quite developed their power. Their teams won't rush them, and they'll likely debut in 2005. Notice the Brewers have a spot on every offensive list.

    Come back tomorrow when I'll try the pitchers....

    WTNYSeptember 09, 2003
    Checking Back
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday we checked in on the current top three organizations, today I'll look at last year's top 3. The rankings I give are those of Baseball America's 2002 Prospect Handbook. Enjoy...

    NUMBER ONE: CLEVELAND INDIANS

    This was a rebuilding year for the Indians, and it didn't go quite to plan. The team thought they had two rookie of the year candidates in Brandon Phillips and Travis Hafner. They also thought Josh Bard would be a reliable catcher until the arrival of Victor Martinez:

    Phillips: .209/.246/.320 in 325AB
    Hafner: .263/.336/.492 in 236AB
    Bard: .224/.268/.325 in 277AB

    Horrible. Phillips also failed drastically in AAA, not hitting the Mendoza line in 200AB. The team went with Jason Davis and Ricardo Rodriguez out of Spring Training, and those two haven't performed:

    Davis: 7-10 4.60 161/154.2 82/42
    Rodriguez: 3-9 5.73 89/81.2 41/28

    The pathetic performance of Rodriguez led to his being traded to the Texas Rangers. In exchange Mark Shapiro landed Ryan Ludwick, a promising young outfielder. The team's attempts at bringing Brian Tallet and Billy Traber had two different stories: Tallet struggled and only has 19 innings; Traber pitched 15 games in relief before having 17 consecutive starts. There has been some promise in Traber, but the results are still disappointing.

    Yet the All-Star the whole time has been an unknown, Jody Gerut. Gerut was acquired with Bard from the Rockies in exchange to Jacob Cruz. In 410AB this season, he's hit .280/.339/.507, hitting his 20th HR this weekend. Coco Crisp also had a promising year, hitting .282 in his extended time in the Majors.

    A look at the top 15:

    1. Brandon Phillips- Disappointing, questions fog future
    2. Victor Martinez- Has hit .275/.322/.303 in his first 109AB
    3. Cliff Lee- Promising debut thus far, a 3.06ERA in 6 starts
    4. Jeremy Guthrie- Sensational in AA, but 129H in 96.2 AAA IP
    5. Travis Hafner- Injuries led to bad year
    6. Ricardo Rodriguez- Dealt for Ryan Ludwick
    7. Grady Sizemore- Futures Game MVP is top 3 OF prospect
    8. Billy Traber- Shown promise: 1 hitter vs. Yankees
    9. Brian Tallet- Hardly dominated AAA (5.15ERA in 14 starts)
    10. Jason Davis- Has some promise, but very inconsistent
    11. Corey Smith- Former #1 prospect bad defensively at third
    12. Francisco Cruceta- 13-9, 3.09ERA in 25AA starts
    13. Alex Escobar- Second in International League in HR
    14. J.D. Martin- Hardly dominated AAA
    15. Josh Bard- Nothing more than a backup catcher

    A few other names to throw at you: Fausto Carmona and Kazuhito Tadano. Carmona dominated low-A, to the tune of 17-4, with a 2.06ERA. He allowed 117 hits in 148.1 innings, striking out 83 against only 14 walks. He finished the year in Double-A, where he will begin next season. His low strikeout total will hurt his prospect status, and next season is extremely important.

    Tadano's numbers:
    High-A: 2-1 1.89 13/19 28/3
    AA: 4-1 1.24 62/72.2 78/15

    He also finished the year in triple-A. Tadano is a sensational reliever, and is hoping to be Shigetoshi Hasegawa in the Majors. He should debut next season, with a chance of making the bullpen out of Spring Training. He has an interesting past, but is one of the top three relief prospects in baseball.

    Shapiro also had a great draft, using his two first-round picks in hitters Michael Aubrey and Brad Sullivan. Aubrey made his debut in High-A, and could be ready in 2005. Sullivan has immense potential, but won't be ready until 2004. Mark Shapiro has done well in his couple of drafts, and we'll see how good in a couple of seasons.

    NUMBER TWO: ATLANTA BRAVES

    Unlike the Indians, the Braves weren't planning on incorporating prospects this season. The only one was #11 Horacio Ramirez, who won the 5th starter job out of Spring Training. His numbers under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone: 9-4 4.17ERA 156H/157.2IP 88K/66BB. He was my personal Rookie of the Year pick, and surprisingly didn't embarrass me.

    Top prospect Adam Wainwright has the perfect pitcher's body, and had an interesting season at Double-A. While his final numbers of 10-8, 3.37ERA look good, it was an inconsistent season. I think the team will send him to Richmond next year, rather than hand him a rotation spot. He's still a little raw, but has immense potential. His inconsistent season has made him slip a little though.

    It was a tough year for Braves' hitters. Betemit had a 2nd straight disappointing season, managing only a ..315OBP and .414 SLG% while converting to third base. It was his second trial of Triple-A, and has one more season before he's a prospect no more. Carlos Duran, the seventh prospect, hit only .224 at high-A Myrtle Beach. First Basemen Scott Thorman hit .243 for Myrtle Beach, and former big-name prospect Kelly Johnson struggled at AA.

    There were three hitters that didn't struggle:

    Andy Marte (A+): .285/.372/.469 in 463AB
    Jeff Francoeur (A-): .281/.325/.445 in 524AB
    Adam LaRoche (AAA): .295/.360/.466 in 264AB

    I included Francoeur even though it could be argued he had a bad season. The first pro-season for high-school outfielders can be unpredictable, and I think he handled it well. LaRoche has the chance to be the Atlanta first basemen next season, as Rob Fick is likely to be gone. Andy Marte was still young for high-A, but had a great season. He is the best prospect in this system, and the top 3B prospect in baseball.

    Two pitchers that have flown up prospect charts are lefties Macay McBride and Dan Meyer. McBride pitched only in Myrtle Beach, going 9-8 with a 2.95ERA He struck out 139 in 164.2 innings, only allowing 164 hits. He is a solid pitching prospect. Meyer had a great year splitting between low-A and high-A. He finished cumulatively 7-10, with a 2.87ERA. He allowed 145 hits in 160 innings. He struck out 158 in the process only walking 32 hitters. He has an argument for being the best prospect in the system, although I believe that belongs to Wainwright. Expect Marte-Wainwright-Meyer to be atop most Braves' rankings.

    Reviewing the top 15
    1. Adam Wainwright- Inconsistent, but will make debut in 2004
    2. Wilson Betemit- Needs to step up next year
    3. Andy Marte- Great year and one of game's best prospects
    4. Bubba Nelson- Oddly pitched a lot in relief, even in AAA
    5. Macay McBride- Will be in AA next year, important level
    6. Jeff Francoeur- Must have jumps in OBP and SLG next year
    7. Carlos Duran- Has skills, but definitely hasn't translated them
    8. Scott Thorman- Not a top 15 prospect
    9. Brett Evert- Back into Braves' scene after impressive AA year
    10. Gonzalo Lopez- Only managed 10 innings due to injury
    11. Horacio Ramirez- Successful rookie campaign
    12. Kelly Johnson- Has the tools, and will repeat AA next year
    13. Adam LaRoche- Braves want him to claim the 1B job
    14. Bryan Digby- Pitched unsuccessfully in relief (A+ and AA)
    15. Zach Miner- Pretty decent year at Myrtle Beach

    NUMBER THREE: CHICAGO CUBS

    Injuries really made it a difficult year for the Cubs' organization, but also allowed them to open their eyes on a few more players. Angel Guzman, likely the top prospect, only managed 89.2 innings at double-A. Andy Sisco only pitched 94 innings, with some sore shoulder complaints. If you look at Sisco's H/9 and K/9, it indicated much better things than that of his ERA. Bobby Brownlie, last season's first-round pick, was shut down early. Number seven prospect Luke Hagerty was out for the season, and another prospect, Justin Jones, was only pitching for 71 innings.

    Yet all the while, the farm system did very well for itself. While Guzman, Sisco, Brownlie, and Jones only cumulated 320.2 innings, but only Sisco had an ERA over three. Brownlie pitched sensationally in his debut, but still had arm fatigue. He could rise to the top of the rankings quickly if the time off helps him revert to the pitching he was doing his Junior year at Rutgers. This four prospects are great pitchers, and the team must keep their arms safe.

    While the injuries hurt, it helped the team realize they had some great players, like Chadd Blasko, Jae-Kuk Ryu, and Ricky Nolasco. Their numbers:

    Ryu (low-A): 6-1 1.75 59/72 57/19
    Blasko (A+): 10-5 1.98 100/136.1 131/43
    Nolasco (A+): 11-5 2.96 129/149 136/48

    Ryu also pitched 78.2 innings away from low-A, but they weren't as successful. He killed an osprey, getting national media attention. He is a great pitcher, and will be much more ready for Double-A next year. Blasko was a supplemental first-round pick from Purdue, and pitched amazing this year. He will move to West Tennessee next year, and another year of this would make him the top prospect. Nolasco has the same token, and has great numbers as well.

    At AAA, the team saw minor disappointments in Dave Kelton, Nic Jackson, and Frank Beltran. Kelton's .338 OBP is still under what the team would hope for, and Jackson's .699 OPS is pathetic. Beltran had a decent season, but only struck out 33 in 48.2 innings. All three will start next season in Iowa again, and must shown significant improvement.

    1. Hee Seop Choi- Disappointing debut, should improve next year
    2. Angel Guzman- Could replace Cruz as 5th starter next July
    3. Andy Sisco- 6'9'' left-hander had injuries shorten his season
    4. Felix Pie- showed plate discipline, but no power in low-A
    5. Nic Jackson- struggled with injuries, and had bad year in AAA
    6. Francis Beltran-
    7. Luke Hagerty
    8. Brendan Harris- solid average, bad SLG for a third basemen
    9. David Kelton- needs to show better OBP skills next season
    10. Todd Wellemeyer- Did well in Majors, but not in minors
    11. Jae-Kuk Ryu- Described at 'million dollar arm with ten cent head'
    12. Justin Jones- sensational arm must stay healthy
    13. Felix Sanchez- will move to Triple-A, but needs an identity
    14. Luis Montanez- former first-round pick is now a complete bust
    15. Alfredo Francisco- still to early to judge on next 3B

    That's it... Positional Rankings start tomorrow....

    WTNYSeptember 08, 2003
    Top 3- Blue Jays, Angels, Brewers
    By Bryan Smith

    The minor league season has been completed, and I wanted to devote a week entirely to the minors. I'll be all over the Arizona Fall League and do rankings a lot of times, but this week will be the first version. Today I'll be writing about the top 3 organizations. Enjoy...

    Blue Jays

    The Blue Jays farm system had a good season, adding and improving a lot of young arms. As they add more into this system, the Major League team should start to compete a lot more. Here's a look at a couple of players in the system who had huge seasons:

    Alexis Rios- .352/.402/.521 in 514 AA at-bats
    Guillermo Quiroz- .282/.372/.518 in 369 AA at-bats
    David Bush- 7-3 2.81 64/77 75/9 in 14 high-A AND 7-3 2.78 73/81 73/19 in 14 AA

    Those three make up the top in this system. Rios is a legitimate centerfielder, who set the Eastern League record for hits in a year. He has a great arm, which I saw in the Futures Game. He is developing power, and profiles as an Ichiro-esque player in the Majors.

    Guillermo Quiroz was once the fourth catcher in the system, and is now the 4th catching prospect in all of baseball. He had a great year at AA, despite discovering he had a collapsed lung at the end of the season He has a good arm behind the plate, and a good eye at the plate. He'll be catching full-time in Toronto in 2005, and should be a very good offensive catcher very soon.

    David Bush wasn't on the Blue Jays radar before the season, but now can make an argument for being the top prospect. Even after being pushed to AA he did well, and has immense potential. He'll be up at some point next season, and you will want to videotape his debut.

    Other players: Russ Adams 2B/SS, Aaron Hill SS, Gabe Gross OF, John-Ford Griffin OF/1B, Tyrell Godwin OF, Vince Perkins SP, Brandon League SP, Dustin McGowan SP, Jason Arnold SP, Francisco Rosario SP. That depth is what will make them one of the top three systems in baseball.

    Angels

    Five. The reason the Angels have such a good farm system is because they have five number one prospects. They are:

    Jeff Mathis C- .323/.384/.500 in 378A+ AB AND .284/.364/.463 in 95 AA
    Dallas McPherson 3B- .308/.404/.606 in 292 A+ AND .314/.426/.569 in 102 AA
    Casey Kotchman 1B- .350/.441/.524 in 206 A+

    Ervin Santana- 10-2 2.53 98/124.2 130/36 in A+ AND 1-1 3.94 23/29.2 23/12 in AA
    Bobby Jenks- 7-2 2.17 56/83 103/51 in AA

    Mathis is the second best catcher in the minor leagues, and Kotchman is the second best first basemen. Dallas McPherson has flown through prospect lists, and should be the top 3B in a lot of prospect rankins. Ervin Santana, formerly Johan Santana, has made a name for himself in the top ten of pitching rankins. Its hard to include Bobby Jenks anywhere, but his stuff is as good as anyone's.

    The team is very deep, and doesn't have many prospects past those five. But all five are number one-type players, and should all be ready in 2005. With good management, the Angels should be ready to go for another run in a couple of seasons.

    Brewers

    Four MVPs.

    Lou Palmisano- .391/.458/.592 in 174 Pioneer League AB
    Prince Fielder- .313/.409/.526 in 502 Midwest League AB
    Corey Hart- .302/.340/.467 in 493 Southern League AB
    Rickie Weeks- Golden Spikes Award for Collegiate MVP

    Palmisano, a catcher, was the team's third pick, and has been huge. He's still at a young level, but those numbers are mind-boggling. He'll advance to the Midwest League next season. Prince Fielder was a former top draft pick, and showcased future 50-HR power this season. He was second in all of the minors in RBI, being closely edged out by Josh Barfield. He is the best first base prospect in the world, and an amazing player. Corey Hart has done well since moving to third base, and looks good for the future.

    Rickie Weeks has passed Barfield in most second base rankings, and ranking Fielder and Weeks will be very difficult. He dominated at Southern University, and while he's a little raw at second, he has a sensational bat. He'll likely be pushed to AA next year, with hopes of having him be the 2005 Opening Day second basemen. I've heard rumors that they'll consider him next year, but that's pushing it.

    The team has many other great players, and are looking at this future lineup:

    C- Lou Palmisano
    1B- Prince Fielder
    2B- Rickie Weeks
    SS- J.J. Hardy
    3B- Corey Hart
    LF- Brad Nelson
    CF- Dave Krynzel
    RF- Tony Gwynn Jr.

    1. Ben Sheets
    2. Manny Parra
    3. Mike Jones
    4. Ben Hendrickson
    5. Luis Martinez

    CL- Ben Diggins

    That's a good team, and one that will be competing for CHAMPIONSHIPS by 2008. It's very early to start saying that, but I like all those players. That doesn't even include Richie Sexson, Scott Podsednik, Geoff Jenkins, and a few others who have futures in Milwaukee. With proper management, this team could win the World Series in the next ten years.

    That's it for today, more organization breakdowns tomorrow...

    WTNYSeptember 05, 2003
    Blogger Sucks!
    By Bryan Smith

    I had a whole column written out responding to Jayson Stark's last column. In the end, I gave my top 12 free agents, which I'll re-do. I'll re-write the article this weekend, and post it Sunday when Blogger isn't screwing me over.

    BRYAN SMITH TOP 12 FREE AGENTS
    1. Vladimir Guerrero
    2. Gary Sheffield
    3. Miguel Tejada
    4. Kevin Millwood
    5. Bartolo Colon
    6. Mike Cameron
    7. Pudge Rodriguez
    8. Sidney Ponson
    9. Luis Castillo
    10. Andy Pettite
    11. Javy Lopez
    12. Shannon Stewart

    I'd also like to thank Will Carroll, who mentioned me in yesterday's UTK. Will is going to interview Britt Burns soon, and I'll pass along the information. Have a good weekend, and please check back Sunday.

    WTNYSeptember 04, 2003
    September Call-Ups
    By Bryan Smith

    Deciding to take a break from year-end reviews for organizations, and write about September call-ups. Here are 12 players to look for in box scores this season, in order of date of call:

    1. Chad Cordero (MON)- called up August 29- Cordero became the second player from this season's Amateur Draft to reach the Majors, second to the Reds' Ryan Wagner. The Expos surprised some people with choosing Cordero, but he was a cheap option who could help them this season. So far, Cordero has thrown three innings, allowing a hit, a walk, and no runs. In that time, he has struck out five people.

    The team said they would convert Cordero to starting at the end of the season, but there's also a chance he'll become the 2004 closer. In A-ball, Cordero allowed 6 runs in 26.1 innings, striking out 17 during that time. Those numbers need to improve for this to be a successful month, but I think the kid has that type of potential.

    2. Johnny Estrada (ATL)- called up August 31- While Estrada didn't win the 2003 IL MVP, he could have, hitting .323/.393/.494 during the season. I don't value this so highly anymore, as I have touted 2001 IL MVP and catcher Toby Hall. I predicted great things from Hall after winning the MVP, but it has yet to materialize. It's hard to tell if the Braves will let Javy Lopez walk and start their switch-hitting catcher, or if they don't believe like me. I guess the next month will decide Estrada's fate.

    3. Bobby Crosby (OAK)- called up August 31- The question isn't if Crosby will have his chance next season, as the shortstop job is his. The team can't sign Miguel Tejada, and refused to trade Crosby even when it would have completed a Brian Giles deal. The team is hoping for more of Angel Berroa than Wilson Betemit, and is hoping he'll be more selective than his MVP predecessor. Billy Beane is an overrated GM blessed with good pitching, and the 2004 offense might be the worst yet.

    But I should say that Crosby had a great year at AAA, setting his career high with 22 home runs. Overall he hit .308/.395/.544, but still struck out 110 times during the season. He had 24 stolen bases, but the A's don't value that statistic at all. Crosby is a great talent that is definitely a front-runner for the 2004 AL ROY.

    4. Jeremy Griffiths (NYM)- called up September 1- Griffiths had a fantastic season at AAA this year, finishing the season 7-6 with a 2.74ERA. He only allowed 94 hits in 115 innings, while walking 26 guys. Griffiths isn't a strikeout pitcher, and strictly relies on his control to get by. Tom Glavine may show the kid a few Greg Maddux pointers, or Major League hitters will make mincemeat of him.

    Because despite pitching better than prospect Aaron Heilman, Griffiths isn't guaranteed a starting spot next year. The team will give slots to Glavine, Heilman, Al Leiter, and Steve Trachsel. That leaves Griffiths and Jae Seo, who impressed the team in the first-half. Griffiths needs a fantastic year to get to start next year, but long relief looks the most probable.

    5. Felix Sanchez (CHC)- called up September 1- Typically, Dusty Baker doesn't like young players. But of the few he was raving about in Spring Training, Sanchez was one of them. It's unknown where the southpaw's future lies, be it in the bullpen or a starting role. He has the stamina to start, yet the pitches to close. He'll move up to AAA next year, but will likely be highly considered to replace Mark Guthrie in 2004.

    Here's Sanchez in '03: 2-2 3.23 57H/64IP 55K/31BB. So he must improve his control, and since I live in Chicago I'll get a first-hand account over the next month. But a youngster must be good to land on Baker's radar, which typically only sees the Shawon Dunstons of the baseball world.

    6. Pete LaForest (TB)- called up September 2- I saw LaForest at the Futures Game, and I can tell you this: no one will question his bat. I think his potential is to be a rich man's Matt LeCroy, and even better than failed catchers Rob Fick, Craig Wilson, and Shawn Wooten. He'll either play 1B or DH next season, although I think Travis Lee will be retained.

    LaForest had citizenship holdups, and began his season late. He finsihed the year with 201 AB at AAA, but made the most of it. He finsihed hitting .269/.382/.567, with 14HR and 36 walks. That means he'll lead the D-Rays in walks next year, and be battling for Aubrey Huff for the team HR title.

    7. Humberto Quintero (SD)- called up September 2- Quintero was acquired from the Chicago White Sox for D'Angelo Jimenez, known for his Gold Glove behind the plate. Before moving to the San Diego franchise, he had struggled to hit the Mendoza Line. But this season was different, when Quintero hit .298/.343/.389. He had only three home runs and 19 walks, but the 26 doubles and 41 strikeouts are good.

    Kevin Towers has wanted a catcher for a long time, and the team may pursue Pudge or Javy Lopez. But if Quintero has a great month, he'll allow the team to use the resources on other options. This guy has the potential to be a rich Jose Molina, or like his brother Ben with a better bat and weaker arm.

    8. Khalil Greene (SD)- called up September 2- Yes, the Padres should have two good prospects playing everyday this month. But the latter, Greene, is far superior. Greene was the 2002 Golden Spikes Award, given to the best collegiate player. He was drafted 11th overall, and his rise to the Majors has been fast. He struggled at AA, hitting only .275/.327/.406 in 229AB. For some reason, the club decided this was enough for a promotion, and moved him up to the PCL. That was motivation enough for Greene, who turned it up a notch, hitting .288/.346/.442 in 319AB.

    Greene is prone to strikeout a lot, and doesn't walk either. He hit only 13 home runs in over 500AB, but 10 of those came in AAA. He doesn't steal bases, and profiles as a #2 hitter good for 20 homers. I'll create a shortstop prospect ranking next week, and he'll undoubtedly hit in the top ten. It's obvious that the B.J. Uptons and J.J. Hardys are superior, but its hard to discern if he has more potential than Jose Lopez. We'll see...

    9. Luis Martinez (MIL)- called up September 2- The Brewers have opted not to call up members of their great farm system this year, all except for Martinez. Not mentioned in the same breath as most of the Brewers prospects, Martinez catapulted himself this year, and has a rotation slot next season locked up. After going 8-5 with a 2.89ERA in AA, Martinez went 4-0 with a 0.99ERA in 7 AAA starts. The southpaw's great season should make him the Brewers best pitcher next year, possibly surpassing Ben Sheets. This is the best farm system in baseball, and Martinez is the first of the bunch to hit Miller Park.

    10. David DeJesus (KC)- called up September 2- The next great KC outfielder? Could be David DeJesus, who has shown better leadoff skills than Johnny Damon did, and will play center if Carlos Beltran is traded in the offseason. David had a fantastic year playing mostly for AAA:

    AAA- .298/.412/.470 5HR-23RBI 34BB/30K 8SB/4CS in 215AB

    Those numbers have put DeJesus over Alexis Gomez, a skills-type player. With the walks and the ability to run well, the team sees their future leadoff man in David. The team also has Byron Gettis coming up the ladder, and he's another outfielder to watch out for.

    11. Aaron Miles (CHW)- called up September 2- Miles is a short second basemen who will undoubtedly draw comparisons to David Eckstein. He is a little old, but should be entering his peak years in the coming seasons. He was named the International League Rookie of the Year, following being on the Southern League All-Star team. His final numbers were .304/.351/.445, hitting 11 homers in almost 550 AB. He was one of Jerry Manuel's favorite players in Spring Training, and had a very good season.

    Baseball Prospectus recently described in their Chicago White Sox PTP that Robbie Alomar hasn't meant as much as he's given credit for, and Ken Williams should recognize that. Miles could handle the job next year, and produce similar, if not improved output. He doesn't run that well, but plays solid defense, draws his walks, and plays his heart out. This kid deserves a chance.

    I'll be back tomorrow, and have decided that next week is officially minor league week. Thanks for reading, and come back soon!

    WTNYSeptember 02, 2003
    Here and There
    By Bryan Smith

    Yesterday I wrote about the Baltimore Orioles, and the great loot they got for Jeff Conine. But I didn't do enough criticizing of Larry Beinfest and the Marlins. While its noble the team is going for the Wild Card, its hurting their future in doing so. Here's what they've given up for Conine and Ugueth Urbina:

    Adrian Gonzalez- Third overall prospect
    Will Smith- Tenth overall prospect
    Ryan Snare- Top 15 prospect
    Denny Bautista- 2002 #3 prospect
    Don Levinski- #6 overall prospect

    Not to mention the fact that this season the team has lost Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Majors. What was once a thriving farm system with loads of depth is quickly becoming quite bare. Though, the team's goal is to bring people to the stadium and they've done that this season. How?

    1. Pay $10M for Pudge Rodriguez, well-known in the community
    2. Call-up super prospects Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis
    3. Trade for popular players Ugueth Urbina and Jeff Conine
    4. Not trade Mike Lowell and say they'll go after an extension

    Jeffrey Loria is trying very hard to make Florida baseball work, and I think it may. The team will use Conine at first base next season, allowing them to trade (or non-tender) Derrek Lee. Cabrera will likely stay in left, leaving second base as the only significant hole. If Pudge doesn't return, and I don't expect it, Ramon Castro is more than ready. Signing Luis Castillo is important for this team, as he's been here since the World Series. More on the Marlins in a future article...

    Another trade I didn't depict detailed enough was the Brian Giles trade. I devoted a whole article to the Padres, as I expect them to win the 2004 NL West crown. But I chose not to write about the Pirates, who dealt their best player. August 11, in my first article, I stated Dave Littlefield had gotten too much heat. Not anymore. There wasn't reason to trade Giles, and the value wasn't sufficient. Waiting until the offseason, like the Royals with Beltran, would have been the best idea. But here's what they got:

    Oliver Perez- One of my 2003 break through candidates who has let me down. Last season Barry Bonds called Perez the best young leftie he had seen all year. After that praise, Perez followed up the season pitching often in the Mexican Winter League. He was very tired this Spring Training, and struggled early on. His Major League numbers:

    Perez ML- 4-8 5.77 107H/106IP 118K/70BB

    He's figured out how to strike people out, but not to control his pitches. His first start for Pittsburgh went dreadfully, as he lasted only seven outs against the Atlanta Braves. He's going to be a good one, but may end up in relief.

    Jason Bay- Traded to San Diego in the Steve Reed deal last season. Here's a look at some numbers:

    Bay minor league career pre-2003: .300-33-168 in 1025AB .852OPS
    Bay in 2003 AAA: .303/.410/.541 20HR 59RBI 23SB

    Not the toolsiest of players, but has gotten the job done. He's ready for the Major League, and could hit 20 home runs next season. His upside isn't very high, definitely lower than that of J.J. Davis. Expect him to get his chances in Pittsburgh, and become a solid player. But mark my word: Jason Bay will never be an All-Star.

    Cory Stewart- Independent League signing by the Padres, paying huge dividends. Stewart is a solid leftie, who throws two good pitches and strikes people out. He's on the same level of a Mike Gonzalez, a player who's playing in the Majors right now. Stewart's 2003 performance in AA:

    AA- 12-7 3.72 104/125.2 133/50

    Very good numbers. Stewart has the potential to sit alongside Sean Burnett, John Vanbenschoten, and Brian Bullington in a rotation. I also think Perez will be in there, so Kip Wells and Kris Benson are very available. This team has big problems offensively, and must get some power bats for the corners. Who knows what will happen with Jason Kendall, and what Pittsburgh ownership will let Dave Littlefield do. But next season the Pirates will be battling the Reds for last place, as the Brewers climb to fourth....

    An interesting look:

    Player A- 6-5 218lb. LH pitcher
    Player B- 6-6 208lb. LH pitcher

    Player A- 193G 161GS 70-60 3.66ERA 8.59H/9 6.03K/9 2.03K/BB
    Player B- 117G 117GS 64-34 3.77ERA 8.88H/9 6.11K/9 2.46K/BB

    Pretty similar careers, huh? Player A had his career over at twenty-six years of age because of a hip injury. Player B? Currently 26 years of age and on the DL with a hip injury.

    Player A= Britt Burns- Chicago White Sox
    Player B= Mark Mulder- Oakland Athletics

    Now I should mention that Burns had a chronic hip condition that ended his career, while Mulder's is just a stress fracture. I don't know much about hips though, and have an e-mail out to Will Carroll. When he lets me know, I'll pass on the information....

    Drew Henson is quitting baseball. I thought on a site of the future I should mention that, and give my best of luck to Henson. Next on the slate: Joe Borchard.

    A quick football look: Henson is currently property of the Houston Texans, whom used a sixth-round pick on him this season. They have exclusive negotiating rights on Henson until the 2004 draft. Henson's three options:

    1. Sign with the Texans and backup David Carr
    2. Have Texans trade him (Cowboys?), and get first-round money
    3. Enter himself in the 2004 draft

    I expect the final option to be exercised, and think that Henson is worthy of a first-round pick. I remember watching him back-up Tom Brady at Michigan, begging Lloyd Carr to give him a full-time job....

    Following up my article on the Padres, I remembered another fact. I read an article where Kevin Towers stated he was interested in getting a good defensive 1B. Klesko is horrid, and is better suited for the outfield. The team could keep Nady in AAA for another season (or trade him), and move Klesko to the outfield.

    Then, the Padres would go after either Doug Mientkiewicz or J.T. Snow. Mientkiewicz is the better option, and would make sense on that team. It's just an idea, but I think its a subplot to watch for in the Padres offseason....

    The 2002 World Champs, the Anaheim Angels, could be looking different next season. There's a good chance that the middle infield (Eckstein and Kennedy) won't be back next season. In their place would be penciled Chone Figgins and Alfredo Amezaga. The team would then be interested in signing either Miguel Tejada or Japanese product Kaz Matsui.

    It's also league news that the team is interested in dumping Darin Erstad, and adding a big outfield bat. Carlos Beltran and Vladimir Guerrero have been mentioned, and Beltran makes sense. The Angels have probably the best farm system in baseball, and could swing Erstad, Dallas McPherson, and Bobby Jenks in the Royals' direction. This team is going to look very different, an article on them could be expected very soon...

    A few mini-scandals in baseball recently:

    - Manny Ramirez spotted in a bar with Yankees coach. Oh my God! I saw an interview Ramirez did with Joe Morgan, when he said he'd enjoy playing for New York. He grew up blocks from the House that Ruth Built, and could see finishing his career there. So while predicting what's going to happen in 2010 is a little insane, my bet is Ramirez finishes a Yankee.
    - Kerry Wood is being coerced to come to Arizona by Mark Grace? Both emphatically deny the rumor, but its becoming obvious that his future in Chicago is in doubt. Peter Gammons mentioned him as a closer candidate, but I don't expect that to happen anytime soon. In the end, the Tribune company won't let him get away.
    - And while mentioning one Chicago ace, I thought I'd throw in another. In case you didn't know, Mark Buerhle is going to be a Cardinal in 2005. He's a St. Louis product, and has twice stated he's interested to play in St. Louis. Chicago has been bad signing him before arbitration, and Buerhle is rightfully bitter.
    - BIG NEWS: Denny Hocking wants to be an Angel and Tim Laker would like to remain an Indian. STOP THE PRESS!

    Back tomarrow...

    WTNYSeptember 01, 2003
    Highway Robbery
    By Bryan Smith

    It's about mid-day on Labor Day, and I changed my mind and decided to make a post. What made me change my decision? The Baltimore Orioles. The new two-headed GM has made the organization flourish, and built the fastest growing farm system in baseball.

    Yesterday, the Orioles traded Jeff Conine to the Florida Marlins for Denny Bautista and Don Levinski. Let's look at their numbers:

    Bautista- 4-5 3.71 45/53.1 61/35 in 11 AA starts
    Levinski- 4-11 4.03 75/87 77/70 in 21 high-A starts

    Bautista was one of the Marlins top five prospects this year, and even made it to the Futures Game. Non-serious injuries shortened his year, and worsened his numbers. I saw him in Chicago, and he looked great. Pedro Martinez's cousin throws 95+ mph gas, and a good hard slider. He may have a few more starts in AA left before AAA, but should (at least) be a 2004 September call-up.

    Levinski came over from Montreal in the Cliff Floyd deal last season. I saw him pitch in the minors, and he is a similar player. He was shut down last season with shoulder soreness, so that could be a future concern. Levinski has a big fastball, but walks far too many players. He's someone to keep an eye on, but may be moved to closing at some point.

    Not only did Baltimore get these two good prospects, but they subtracted Jeff Conine from their roster. Although he's been the most consistent hitter all season, he makes 4.75M next season, far too much. The team is going to spend a lot of money this offseason, and this gave Beattie and Flanagan some extra money.

    Also remember, the two-headed GM made a great trade sending Sidney Ponson to the Giants. In return, they added Damian Moss, Kurt Ainsworth, and Ryan Hannaman. Moss is an innings-eater leftie with little upside. But Ainsworth was a former top prospect who has been hurt this season, and will be the ace next year. Hannaman is a hard-throwing leftie with tons of upside, light years away.

    Call me crazy, but I think the Orioles have the best prospect pitching depth in the minors. Their best prospect is John Maine, who's first full-season pitching trial has been sensational. When you hear arguments about the top pitching prospects in the minors, you'll hear his name. Here's why:

    14 low-A starts: 7-3 1.53 43H/76.1 IP 108K/18BB
    12 high-A starts: 6-1 3.07 48H/70.1 IP 77K/20BB

    Combined, he has allowed only 91 hits, in 146.2 innings. He's also registered 185K and only 38 walks in that time. The team also has last season's #4 pick, Adam Loewen, who didn't disappoint in his first nine starts. Daniel Cabrera and Rommie Lewis have ace-stuff, but they must learn how to throw strikes more consistently.

    After years of having pitching injuries, the team is working back. Last season's #1 prospect, Erik Bedard, not embarassing himself in five rookie league starts. It's been a hard road back from Richard Stahl, but the jury still isn't out. Their top hitting prospect, Darnell McDonald, was hurt this season, but could have a job in the majors next season.

    One of the organization's best stories has been Matt Riley. Their former #1 prospect has struggled to get back from injury, before this season. Splitting time in AA and AAA, Riley has re-established himself as a top pitching prospect. Expect him to get a job out of Spring Training, and be a full-time starting pitcher for years. A look at his 2003 numbers:

    14 AA starts: 5-2 3.11 56/72.1 73/23
    13 AAA starts: 4-2 3.58 70/70.1 77/28

    What a come back! On the Major League level, the team has started to make improvements. Melvin Mora and Luis Matos had breakout seasons, although Mora has been injured the last month. Matos has played a great centerfield and done well for himself at the plate. Jerry Hairston was showing sensational leadoff skills, which should allow the GMs to deal Mike Fontenot. Brian Roberts did a good job taking over for Hairston this season, but needs to show he can handle third.

    The team hasn't hid the fact that Vladimir Guerrero is their number one priority this offseason. With Albert Belle and Scott Erickson leaving the payroll, they'll have the money. I think they'll re-sign Tony Batista, and may bring back Rafeal Palmiero to fill Conine's first base slot. They have a good bullpen, although Willis Roberts and Buddy Groom had tough seasons.

    Mike Hargrove may not return next season, but the Orioles have tons of upside. Peter Angelos is finally ready to pump money into the team, and Camden Yards should fill up again. Expect the O's to get third place next season, and they'll start eyeing the top of the division by 2005.

    WTNYAugust 29, 2003
    2004 Awards Already
    By Bryan Smith

    After yesterday's column on the 2003 awards, I got a suggestion from Rich Lederer about a new article. Instead of talking about the 2003 awards, keep my futuristic hook going by making some early predictions on next season's awards. Here's my best shot...

    AL MVP

    GARY SHEFFIELD- YANKEES

    What George wants, George gets. The Yankees lose significant salary off their payroll this season (Mondesi, Hitchcock) and have the money to sign Sheff. He is supposedly favored in the Big Apple to Vladimir Guerrero. Here's a look at Sheffield's 2003 vs. Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, A-Rod, and Nomar Garciaparra:

    Sheffield: .322/.427/.611 34HR 108RBI 110R 17SB in 476AB
    Ramirez: .317/.418/.573 31HR 90RBI 100R 3SB in 489AB
    Thomas: .267/.385/.565 36HR 84RBI 71R 0SB in 453AB
    Rodriguez: .301/.396/.594 37HR 95RBI 102R 16SB in 508AB
    Nomar: .321/.361/.545 22HR 86RBI 101R 15SB in 549AB

    So Sheffield doesn't lead in HR, but leads in BA, OBP, SLG, RBI, R, and SB. Historically moving to the American League helps a player, as the quality of pitching isn't as great. This season, for example, the American League has a cumulative ERA of 4.53 against the National League's 4.28. That is a huge discrepancy, and for the record, the American League gives up more hits and home runs per nine innings.

    In conclusion, Sheffield's numbers would rank as the best in the American League this season. His main competition would come from A-Rod, Ichiro, and possibly Vladimir Guerrero.

    NL MVP

    BRIAN GILES- PADRES

    It was between Giles and Bonds, and although I'm wrong, I keep forecasting a slight Bonds dip. But mark my words, when the Padres make the playoffs next season, Giles won't be underrated anymore. The only thing that bothers me:

    AB/HR
    2001- 15.57
    2002- 13.08
    2003- 24.25

    And for what doesn't concern me:

    BB/K
    2001- 1.34
    2002- 1.82
    2003- 1.76

    If a 39-year old Bonds flirts with sixty home runs, the MVP title is his. Giles must regain the power he's had the last few years, and finally break 40 homers. He will have the chance for RBIs, with Ryan Klesko protecting him in the lineup.

    And what about Pujols? Well, I don't see him having quite as good of a season, and I think these two will dominate the voting. If Giles comes up with a .300/.450/.550 season with 40HR and 120RBI, he'll definitely get some votes. But nowadays the MVP voting goes through San Francisco, and through the bat of Bonds.

    AL CY YOUNG

    PEDRO MARTINEZ- RED SOX

    OK, not quite an out-on-a-limb, Esteban Loaiza-like prediction. But in his contract year, you think Martinez will sit out on starts? Do you believe he'll allow Grady Little to let him pitch only 98 pitches per start? No way.

    Consider that Pedro hasn't had an ERA in the 3's since 1996 when he was pitching in Montreal. Since the Boston trade he's been a God:

    With Boston: 87-27 2.27 823H/1129.6IP 1416K/242BB

    Amazing. But look at his recent K rates:

    K/9
    2001- 12.57
    2002- 10.79
    2003- 9.98

    Although, that's not bad at all. It proves that even a bad Pedro is great. He needs to last longer in games to get more wins, and a steadier 2004 bullpen will also help. Lock in Pedro for 20 wins and a sub-2.50ERA next season.

    NL CY YOUNG

    MARK PRIOR

    Career Stats:

    19-11 2.82 235H/284.1IP 332K/76BB

    These are unprecedented statistics, no pitchers start out like this. Doc Gooden is the only name I can think of that has had this kind of beginning, so quick. Prior is living up to his billing as the Greatest College Pitcher Ever, and will soon have some hardware. His record is because of bad Cubs offenses, but its improving every month and every season. For example, consider his last five starts:

    Last 5: 5-0 0.69 21H/39IP 35K/4BB

    I've watched almost all of these games, and it isn't even the best he can pitch. His strikeout numbers are lower than normal, as he isn't quite back to full strength. But to make up for it, he's really not walking anybody. The Cubs offense is putting up runs for him, and they are winning games. Remember 39 innings in five starts is almost eight a game, which usually ensures victory.

    Prior keeps getting better, and smarter, after every start. He has the best mechanics in baseball, and the perfect pitcher's body. He throws all of his pitches for strikes, and thinks like a mix between Tom Seaver and Greg Maddux. Prior will win the 2004 Cy Young, and then proceed to win the next five after that.

    AL ROY

    JUSTIN MORNEAU- TWINS

    It is feasibly, and actually likely, that the Twins will have the next two great rookies. The key to picking the Rookie of the Year is a player who is talented, and will get significant at-bats. With the likely non-tender of Mientkiewicz, Morneau will get the full-time call-up. Although he struggled in his first Major League stint, this was a great season. Here's all you need to know:

    Morneau's 2003 HR total prorated to 500AB: 33.74

    And as Jim Callis points out in his newest Ask BA, power tends to go up as you move through the levels. Morneau won't hit 35 homers next season, although I wouldn't bet against it. The 2003 class is kind of weak, and a .275/.360/.520 season with 30 homers might be enough.

    Honorable Mention: Joe Blanton, Matt Riley, Travis Blackley, Jeremy Reed

    NL ROY

    GARRETT ATKINS- ROCKIES

    A look at Atkins in AAA:

    .325/.383/.490 with 13HR, 302B, 67RBI in 431AB

    Atkins' stock took a major jump this Spring Training, when he hit .525 in 40AB with the Major League team, including seven doubles and 12RBI. The team held back though, because he hadn't exactly been earth-shattering before then:

    2000 Rookie League: .303-7-17, 12 2B in 251AB
    2001 High-A: .325-5-67, 43 2B in 465AB
    2002 AA: .271-12-61, 27 2B in 510AB

    So while Atkins showed fairly good plate discipline, and doubles power, there wasn't much hope. But he kept it going after Spring Training, and has had a great 2003. Remember he'll get 300AB in Coors next season, where you can be sure that some of those doubles will become home runs.

    Honorable Mention- Kaz Matsui will make noise if he comes over, as will the Korean slugger whose name eludes my grasp. I like Khalil Greene, Terrmel Sledge, Chase Utley, and Joel Hanrahan also.


    There's too many rumors of potential managerial firings for me to predict 2004 Manager's of the Year, although my guess is that the Baltimore manager (it won't be Hargrove) and Bruce Bochy will get some mention.

    I'm pretty sure I'll be posting a notes column this weekend (think Sunday), and will be back on Labor Day. Have a good weekend, and if you find yourself bored, head over to Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT or For Rich or Sporer.

    WTNYAugust 28, 2003
    2004 NL Awards
    By Bryan Smith

    I recently got into an argument with a friend on two National League awards, the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, and have decided to write about it. I should mention that I chose Eric Gagne and Brandon Webb, respectively, while he chose John Smoltz and Dontrelle Willis. This content is justifiable on this site simply because its my prediction of the award. Enjoy...

    1st- Rookie of the Year- Brandon Webb vs. Dontrelle Willis

    A look at the overall basic numbers:

    Webb: 22GS 8-6 113H/143.2IP 2.51ERA 141K/51BB
    Willis: 20GS 11-4 109H/118.1IP 3.35ERA 106K/41BB

    These translate to these stats:

    Webb: 6.4IP/GS 1.14WHIP 2.76K/BB 7.08H/9 8.83K/9
    Willis: 5.9IP/GS 1.27WHIP 2.59K/BB 8.29H/9 8.06K/9

    We know that Webb is more of a workhorse, going almost two-thirds of an innings more per start. The K/BB and K/9 ratios are too close to count against Willis, but he is well behind in both WHIP and hits per nine innings. Let's see who is steadier by analyzing their month-by-month splits:

    Webb May: 1-1 2.65 28/34 24/12
    Webb June: 2-1 2.06 23/35 23/8
    Webb July: 3-2 3.23 38/39 44/9
    Webb August: 1-2 2.60 21/27.2 39/20

    So, he has been very consistent throughout all of his months, not taking any serious hits in that ERA. His august walk total is nearly doubled of the next highest, but he has figured out the strikeout more in July and August. Now to Willis...

    Willis May: 3-1 3.72 31/29 34/12
    Willis June: 5-0 1.04 25/34.2 28/8
    Willis July: 2-1 2.94 29/33.2 31/12
    Willis August: 1-2 7.29 24/21 13/9

    What? A 7.29 ERA in the month of August? Both Willis and Marlin brass are blaming this on Willis' constant attention, and say that he's tired. His first three months were sensational, especially a June when he really came after hitters. But in August his ERA, H/9, K/9, and K/BB are all very far off.

    So, both were very steady pitchers, although Willis has started to tail off. A good September will keep him in this race, but Webb is clearly ahead. Webb was ranked #1 on Baseball Prospectus' steadiest pitcher statistic. There are a couple of things that point in Willis' favor: his high win total, outstanding charisma, and attendance charts.

    First, the wins. There's no question that an 11-4 record is better than that of 8-6. But Webb has a better ERA, and is the 6th unluckiest pitcher in all of baseball. And despite all the smiles and media attention, there are people taking notice of Webb. In this week's Sports Weekly, Bobby Cox calls Webb the best starter on his team, and basically states he wouldn't think twice about the Rookie of the Year award. Remember, there was one point this month that Webb used his sinker to get 73 consecutive outs before a flyball putout. He's the type of pitcher you consider bringing a fifth infielder for, and has the best sinker in the Majors (better than Lowe and Brown).

    Finally, you can't argue with attendance. Here's a look at his last five starts, and the attendance of those games:

    7/30 ARI= 37,735
    8/6 @STL= 31,606
    8/11 LA= 20,288
    8/16 SD= 26,104
    8/22 @SF= 42,244

    So, in his last five games, Willis has brought an average of 31,595.4 people to the stadium. The Marlins were desperate for fans before his arrival, now have the best marketing tool in Flordia. In one start against the Braves, Peter Gammons reported it was the most watched non-playoff baseball game in five years. Willis is helping baseball, but is that enough to win an award for?

    Finally, some oddball stats:

    Webb
    - On Baseball Prospectus, Webb is listed as the 4th best starting pitcher with a 5.3 SNWAR
    - Michael Woolner reports that the cumulative OPS of batters faced has been .739
    - Woolner also writes that the ERA of opposing pitchers is 4.39

    Willis
    - Willis is tied for the 26th best pitcher on the Prospectus chart, with a 2.7 SNWAR
    - The OPS of batters faced is .736
    - And the ERA of the opposing pitchers has been 4.69

    So, when using park effects and what not, Webb is drastically a better starter. The difference in OPS isn't substantial, but Willis has definitely faced easier pitchers in route to his 11-4 record. While the media sometimes tends to vote on their favorite player, there's no question that Brandon Webb has been this season's best rookie.

    2nd- NL CY Young- Eric Gagne vs. John Smoltz

    First, a look at overall stats:

    Gagne- 63G 43SV 30H/66IP 113K/17BB 1.50ERA
    Smoltz- 58G 44SV 45H/61IP 67K/8BB 0.89ERA

    Which converts to these more complicated stats:

    Gagne- 0BS 0.71WHIP 6.65K/BB 4.09H/9 15.4K/9
    Smoltz- 3BS 0.87WHIP 8.38K/BB 6.64H/9 9.89K/9

    By far the more difficult argument, since it takes the importance of reliever ERA into question. In terms of ERA, Smoltz is the superior; Gagne wins many other categories. He has less blown saves, a far better WHIP, and his strikeout rates are insane. Both are threatening Thigpen's record, but aren't likely to break it.

    One record that should be broken, is the consecutive saves record. Gagne has forty-three straight this season, and his streak dates back to August 2002. He has been a savior in Los Angeles, and truly makes it an eight-inning game. An aberration in the All-Star Game may actually hurt him, although it shouldn't.

    Smoltz has been fantastic, and his K/BB rate is the best anyone could have. His ERA is his best asset, and will probably be the 2nd Atlanta reliever in two years with a sub-1.00 ERA.

    Baseball Prospectus' reliever rankings have Smoltz in the fourth spot, while Gagne is 6th. This appears to rely heavily on ERA, as Shigetoshi Hasegawa is in the first spot. Reliever ERA weighs way too much in current society, as the Smoltz-Gagne earned run spread is only five.

    I hardly have a great argument against Smoltz, other than the dominating WHIP and K/9 numbers Gagne has. That's all for now folks...

    Editor's Note- Since writing this article, I discovered John Smoltz was placed on the 15-day DL, and won't be back until September. This should give Eric Gagne ample time to surpass Smoltz in saves, and will give Bobby Thigpen some rest.

    WTNYAugust 27, 2003
    SoCal So Happy
    By Bryan Smith

    I was in the midst of preparing today's fantasy entry when word came the Padres had acquired Brian Giles and traded Rondell White. The fantasy idea was quickly deleted, and my mind shifted to that of the San Diego Padres. Can Kevin Towers build another World Series team? Will PETCO Park attract enough fans to keep a bloated payroll afloat?

    First, let's analyze what the Padres are in possession of, then come up with methods of improving the team. The lineup is almost complete, with bats surrounding their newest star. Ryan Klesko is etched in at first base, and Mark Loretta will team with him on the right side. Khalil Greene went from 2002 College Player of the Year, to a 2003 where he is hitting .303/.359/.466 in 290 AAA at-bats. Sean Burroughs made up for a bad rookie season, although his five home runs is less than expected. Giles and Mark Kotsay are locks in the outfield, and there's competition in right. Xavier Nady, a farm system prize, has had mixed results in the Major Leagues. And while Phil Nevin has proved everything, the Ken Griffey for Nevin rumors meant his job isn't safe.

    The catcher position is wide open, since neither Gary Bennett nor Wiki Gonzalez has gotten it done. The team has been toying with this position for years, without any real success. Here's a mock 2004 lineup:

    1. Greene- SS
    2. Burroughs- 3B
    3. Giles- LF
    4. Klesko- 1B
    5. Nady/Nevin-RF
    6. Kotsay- CF
    7. Loretta- 2B
    8. Catcher to be named later

    Actually, a playoff-type lineup. The catcher should be good defensively, as its obvious that scoring runs won't be a problem for this team. In fact, its preventing runs that will hold this team back. What was once the best group of pitching prospects around has turned into trade bait (see Oliver Perez), or just flunked out (Dennis Tankersly).

    The team has three good arms this season: Brian Lawrence, Jake Peavy, and Adam Eaton. Lawrence, the 2002 ace, isn't having a great season (6-14, 4.54ERA), but has promise (166H in 170.2IP). Peavy is gradually improving, and allowing 148 hits in 159.1 innings against 124 strikeouts is a great sign. Eaton did well coming back from surgery, and actually pitched the best. His 119K showed his great curve was still there, and he also allowed less hits than innings. These three could sit in any rotation, although there isn't a clear ace.

    So, what's available within the organization? Not much. Kevin Jarvis has been Towers' greatest bust, and the contract will continually hurt the team. Clay Condrey, Carlton Loewer, and Mike Bynum have all been tried in the rotation, but none possess great potential. Ben Howard was just brought up from AAA, where he allowed 118 hits in 130.1 innings. Another encouraging player is AA southpaw Cory Stewart, who is 12-7 with 3.72ERA in the Southern League. He also has struck out 133 men in 125.2 innings, while surrendering only 104 hits and 50 walks. Let's say, to be conservative, that one of these five players will impress Padres' brass enough to be counted on every fifth day. That leaves:

    1- Brian Lawrence
    2- Adam Eaton
    3- Jake Peavy
    4- Howard/Stewart

    What was once a great bullpen, has lost its hype with Trevor Hoffman's injury-plagued season. Rod Beck has filled in nicely, not blowing a save in his first eighteen attempts. These two players are the Padres two significant free agents, and dictate a lot of what they do in the winter. Rod Beck wants 300 career saves, and will likely only sign somewhere that he is promised to get all the saves. That won't happen if the Padres retain their all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman. San Diego's favorite player has an expensive option for next season, and Towers has no choice but to decline. Both sides have reported interest, and are in the midst of working on an extension. Count on one of these two men closing games in San Diego next season.

    So who else? Luther Hackman was acquired in the Brett Tomko deal, and the power leftie has done well in 56 games thus far. Scott Linebrink was a great waiver claim, as he is sporting a 3.33ERA in 81 middle relief innings. His future is not in a rotation, but rather in that middle-role. Jay Witasick was signed to set-up Hoffman, and hasn't disappointed. Finally, although rumors are he may be traded, I expect the club to hold onto Brandon Villafuerte. These four players consitute a set-up man, two middle relievers, and a leftie.

    Three that won't be retained are Mike Mathews, Jaret Wright, and Charles Nagy. Mathews hasn't done well in a LOOGY role, and there are better options available. Wright was a good idea in theory, but his 8.37ERA in 47.1 innings is pretty uninspiring. And if the 38-year old Nagy doesn't retire, then he has an outside chance at a long relief role. He should battle with some of the rotation losers, like Jarvis and Clay Condrey.

    Last season the Padres used more pitchers then any team in history, and have some succeeding in the minors. J.J. Trujillo, who had a brief tour in San Diego, has done decent in 26AA games. He is similar to both Linebrink and Villafuerte though, so he'll likely go to AAA. But Rusty Tucker, who was closing games in Lake Elsinore (high-A) last season, shouldn't. Tucker has closed 28 games for the Mobile Bay Bears, and struck out 63 men in 53 innings. Best of all, he's a leftie. He could move into the bullpen and be the second left-hander, and set-up at the same time. This would give the Padres this:

    CL- Hoffman/Beck
    SU- Jay Witasick
    LH/SU- Rusty Tucker
    MR- Scott Linebrink
    LH- Luther Hackman
    MR- Brandon Villafuerte
    LR- Nagy/Jarvis/Condrey

    OK, so that leaves holes behind the plate and one in the rotation. The team could pursue these on the free agent market, although I see no need. Phil Nevin should be traded, as he is expensive, and commands value. The offense will surely score runs without him, and Xavier Nady should do much better next season. Here's my idea:

    Phil Nevin and Ramon Vazquez to Dodgers for Koyie Hill and Odalis Perez

    This trade would undoubtedly help both teams. For the Dodgers, Nevin would be an extra bat in an offense that needs help. He would likely play first base, and permit Paul Lo Duca from moving there. Lo Duca's presence at catcher would allow Hill, to exit. Odalis has struggled this season, and the Dodgers are loaded in pitching. Vazquez hasn't done much since being a AAA all-star, but is an improvement over Cesar Izturis or Alex Cora.

    San Diego would love this deal. Hill is ready to catch in the Major Leagues, and could post a decent average back there. Perez has immense potential, and would be the ace the team needs. It will fill all the regular holes, and leave money to be spent for deadline trades.

    What was once the best division in baseball, the NL West should take a hit in coming seasons. Arizona and San Francisco have money problems, and won't lure anymore free agents. Los Angeles is having ownership issues, and will likely fire Jim Tracy and Dan Evans. And Colorado, well no one will ever win in Denver. That leaves space for the Padres, once the laughingstock of baseball, to make another run to the playoffs.

    Editor's Note: Since writing this article I learned the player to be named later in this deal is likely Cory Stewart. This doesn't change my stance dramatically, although it may put the Padres in the market for a fifth starter.

    WTNYAugust 26, 2003
    Notes Day: Missing a Week
    By Bryan Smith

    A week away from my computer taught me one thing: a lot happens in August. Today I have a list of notes, everything from transaction analysis to minor league news...

    Transaction Analysis
    Most of the moves that have happened in August were good teams acquiring future free agents. I'll go quickly through these moves, as they don't have much 2004 and beyond bearing.

    Mike Dejean to Cards for 2 Players to be Named
    Rumor has it that Milwaukee will chosse between Josh Pearce, Mike Crudale, Jason Ryan, and Chance Capel. The first three are all in AAA, with Crudale being the most successful reliever. Capel is in high-A, and has bad numbers and is old. If these reports are true, expect the Brewers to acquire Crudale and Jason Ryan, sporting a 2.89ERA at AAA.

    The Cardinals got the reliever they needed, and will probably keep him next season. The team will lose bad arms like Jeff Fassero and Cal Eldred, but keeping an extra closer around is a good idea.

    Sterling Hitchcock to Cards for Justin Pope and Ben Julianel
    Good move for the Yankees. By trading Raul Mondesi, Robin Ventura, and Hitchcock, the Yankees have added some good arms. Pope was an ex-prospect who was struggling, and Julianel is a reliever that has some insane low-A numbers (78K in 51.2IP).

    Hitchcock's next few months will dictate the rest of his career. Either he could have a great stretch run, and get signed like Woody Williams did after he landed in St. Louis. Or he could go down the Jamey Wright route: pitch bad for the Cards and spend a year in AAA. It's all up to him.

    Cubs get Womack and Simon
    Who the Cubs gave up isn't important. The team got these two players who like to hack and won't add too much. Womack will play a nice middle relief reserve role, giving the club another decent runner off the bench (see Glanville). Simon is the interesting acquisition, as he is arbitration-eligible next season. A non-tender is most likely, but you can bet Dusty will be lobbying to trade Hee Seop.

    Pirates get Bobby Hill
    The extra from the Aramis and Lofton trade. Hill is a great acquisition, although he presents a logjam in the middle infield. The team traded for Freddy Sanchez, has Jack Wilson, and Jose Castillo is waiting in the wings. The possibility of Hill at second, Castillo at short, and Sanchez playing third is most likely. This would give the team a serious lack of power, but a solid team BA.

    Eric Young to the Giants
    This is the route the Cubs should have gone. Young is a good player, and his ability to play center really helps his value. The team is having health problems in the middle, and Young is another warm body. He won't be kept around next season, but now he is in the spotlight.

    Nice acquisition by the Brewers in Greg Burso. He is a solid prospect, and is flying through the minors fast. Milwaukee will probably be out of the cellar next season, and be making a serious run at things by 2005.

    Free Agent News

    - Outfield is the most loaded position going into the offseason, with Gary Sheffield and Vladimir Guerrero topping the list. Rumor has it that the Yankees are more interested in Sheffield, and that Guerrero doesn't want to play in New York. The Orioles have made Vlad their number one priority, and his other serious suitors should be Atlanta and Los Angeles. I think the Dodgers will get Guerrero, and the Orioles will turn their attention to Mike Cameron.
    - Another good outfielder possibly not on the move is Jose Guillen. This season's most improved player is enjoying playing by the bay, and has announced he wants a three-year deal to stay in Oakland. Depending on cost, expect Billy Beane to sign him.

    - Despite the fact that the Blue Jyas are going to wait to sign an extension with Kelvim Escobar, expect it to happen. He is the best pitcher the Blue Jays have behind Halladay, and they can't allow him to escape to the weak market.
    - One team in need of pitching in the offseason is the Red Sox. I think they'll make Bartolo Colon their number one priority, unless Javier Vazquez is easily attainable. I doubt that though, and expect Colon to be in Beantown.
    - The White Sox will pursue their chubby ace, but won't be crying if Colon leaves them. Ken Williams has long-standing enfatuations with Sidney Ponson and Cory Lidle, and may use the Colon exit to satisfy those. Signing Ponson and Lidle would be a nice way to fill out a rotation currently featuring Loaiza, Buerhle, and Garland.
    - Danys Baez is a huge question mark for the Indians. They will be paying Bob Wickman $5 million in 2004, and can't afford to pay Baez the same amount. Danys hasn't quite lived up to his potential, and is probably headed to the free agent market. And anyone notice that David Riske, and not Baez, is getting the saves in Cleveland?
    - Expect the Expos to acquire Brandon Villafuerte from the Padres in the next few days...

    Minor League notes

    - 17-year old pitcher Felix Hernandez pitched in low-A yesterday. He did pretty well in his midwest league debut, after dominating the Northwest League. The Mariners could be looking at Hernandez in a couple of years, and the kid is flying through prospect charts. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he's the youngest player in Professional baseball.
    - The Angels top four prospects: Ervin Santana, Jeff Mathis, Bobby Jenks, and Dallas McPherson is the best foursome in baseball. The World Champs will be adding all these great players, and Casey Kotchman, in the next few seasons. Wow.
    - Starting tomarrow, the sidebar will be charting the progress of Oakland's 2002 draftees. After reading how 'great' their draft was in Moneyball, I was suprised to look at how bad some of them are doing. Joe Blanton is the only one really standing out, and that was just a bad Ken Williams mistake.

    Be back tomarrow, enjoy reading...

    WTNYAugust 25, 2003
    Finally Home
    By Bryan Smith

    Wow, I had quite the week. Seven stadiums in eight days, and I still manage to miss a ton of baseball news. I'll hit everything I missed in the coming days, but first, here's a brief synopsis of my trip:

    August 16: Camden Yards
    Yankees at Orioles

    Well, the matchup couldn't get any more uninspiring: Sterling Hitchcock vs. Pat Hentgen. But, in the end it was the best, and most exciting game of the trip. I loved Camden Yards, everything from its old-time feel, to it's Yawkey Way impersonation past the outfield wall. The food was great outside the stadium, although it was disappointing more Yankees fans were there than O's fans.

    So, back to the game. In the first inning, following a Luis Matos double, Tony Batista hit a sacrifice fly to give the Orioles the early lead. But I noticed in the third inning that Jay Gibbons, not Batista, hit after Matos. This was a violation of the rules, but wasn't really disputed by Joe Torre. This was the first time I saw a Major League team screw up its lineup, although Little League Baseball is famous for it.

    OK, flash to the ninth, when Mariano Rivera has the game one out from ending. Then, for the third time in five chances, he blows it. Luis Matos, by far the most impressive player from the game, hit a towering game-tying blast. The tie lasted until the 12th, when Jason Giambi sent a Henry Carrasco pitch far.

    Then came the worst baserunning play ever. Jack Cust walked (as usual), bringing Larry Bigbie to the plate. Bigbie hit a Jeff Nelson pitch into the right field gap, a standup double. Cust was originally waved to home, but decided to stop instead. He lost hit footing, falling down 10 feet from the bad. Alfonso Soriano took the relay throw straight to third, landing Cust in a run-down. The only problem was, after avoiding the catcher, Cust had a straight path to home. Nelson forgot to cover the plate, but only ten feet from home Cust fell, again, leading to an Aaron Boone tag.

    Wow. I guess the people who called Jack Cust one-dimensional were right.

    August 17- Shea Stadium
    Rockies at Mets

    Then, after a four-hour drive to New York, we arrived for the only day game of the trip, in the Big Apple. The Mets stadium left me unimpressed, especially the fans who hardly cheered their team. Shea reminded me of U.S. Cellular Field, due to its ugly blue tint. If I don't land in Shea again before I die, no big deal.

    The game wasn't that great either, with Jason Jennings getting hit hard. Al Leiter struck out ten in six innings, although he was alarmingly unefficient with his pitches. The two exciting parts were seeing phenom Jose Reyes, and being at Cliff Floyd's last game. Both of those two shined, Reyes going 2-5 with two runs, and Floyd going four-for-four. Cliff Floyd's swing is probably the easiest in baseball, and he is a sensational hitter. Reyes is a superstar in the making, needing a better batting eye to become the best leadoff hitter in the game.

    August 18- Yankee Stadium
    Royals at Yankees

    Lima vs. Weaver! Headcase vs. Headcase! Not exactly expected to be a pitcher's duel, and it lived up to its billing. Both were horrible, and as it turned out, I saw Weaver's last start for a long time. While I was watching this game, Jose Contreras was striking out 15 men in a rehab start.

    The game itself wasn't very exciting, with the Yankees outclubbing the Royals 11-6. Hideki Matsui showed dominance over Angel Berroa, hitting his 36th double of the year. Unfortunatly, Matsui is well on his way to winning the Rookie of the Year. Carlos Beltran had a spectacular game, and is possibly passing Vladimir Guerrero on some charts. I'll do a report on this later, but I can't say Vlad is better than Beltran.

    August 19- Fenway Park
    A's at Red Sox

    Sadly, I later found out this was Mark Mulder's final start of the season. His hip led to an early exit, and has ended his season. The A's will struggle without him, needing John Halama to replace him every fifth day. I'm currently reading Moneyball, and it gives way too little credit to the pitching. Without the big 3, Billy Beane would never have been anything to write a book about.

    A blister forced Derek Lowe out of the game after six fabulous innings, due to a blister problem. Then, Scott Sauerbeck and Scott Williamson promptly blew the game, giving up three runs in the seventh inning. Moneyball relievers Ricardo Rincon and Chad Bradford set it up, while Keith Foulke delivered the knockout punch. The only bad part? I was in the bathroom for the biggest play of the game, a Ramon Hernandez three-run jack.

    August 20- McCoy Stadium
    Syracuse SkyChiefs at Pawtucket Red Sox

    Cory Lidle vs. Bruce Chen! Seriously, I went to a AAA game, and saw two Major League dropouts. How unfortunate. Well both looked decent, Lidle going four innings in his rehab start. He was shaky in two of them, but managed to allow zero runs for the game, handing the ball to Corey Thurman.

    Chen was great untill the seventh, when the Blue Jays lit him up. But the PawSox came back, scoring six runs in the final inning for an unprobable finish. Earl Snyder hit a walk off three-run homer that sealed the game.

    The only real prospect I saw was the Greek God of Walks, Mr. Kevin Youkilis. Kevin has been struggling since he got to AAA, and had no great day in front of me. In the second inning he took a Lidle pitch to deep center, only to have catcher-converted-center fielder Jayson Werth rob his home run.

    August 22- Frontier Field
    Scranton Wilkes-Barre Barons at Rochester Red Wings

    Baseball America called Rochester the 2002 Baseball City, U.S.A, and it lived up to its billing. More than nine thousand people saw the game, topping most Expos games in Olympic Stadium. The stadium or city isn't awe-inspiring, but its the product of good marketing and passionate fans.

    I did get to see Brandon Duckworth's second start since being demoted from Philadelphia. He looked good until his final inning, the sixth, when Rochester lit him up. Minnesota top prospect Justin Morneau played, although nothing special came out of it. Neither team had any other great prospects, as I had just missed Chase Utley (since he is now Philly's 2B).

    August 23- Dunn Tire Park
    Rochester Red Wings at Buffalo Bisons

    I MET MARK SHAPIRO!

    Right outside the stadium a man was nice enough to give us free tickets, which happened to be directly behind home plate, eight rows up. So I'm people watching before the game, when I notice Indians' GM Mark Shapiro is a row behind me. After waiting a few innings I talked to him for awhile, about his breaking in with a baseball team and becoming a GM. He was soft-spoken but a very approachable man, and it was an honor to meet him. I'm easily star-struck, so this was definitly the highlight of the trip.

    Also, I saw Brandon Phillips hit a home run. Phillips, supposed to be Jose Reyes' counterpart, is well below the Mendoza line in 150 AAA at-bats. But his towering shot to left field was impressive, as was his defense at second. Although I didn't ask Shapiro, I found myself wondering if Phillips decline has been partially due to moving from shortstop.

    Buffalo's stadium didn't draw many fans, but it is the most Major League looking minor league ballpark I have ever seen. No ads along the walls or across the outfield, but they did have luxury boxes located well above home plate. I liked Rochester more, but its a shame more people don't go to Dunn Tire Park.

    So that's it. I saw some rehab and some injuries, some heroics and shame, but in the end I loved every minute of it. I'll be back tomarrow hopefully documenting everything I've missed.

    WTNYAugust 20, 2003
    Phor Phillie Phans
    By Bryan Smith

    This is part-two of my series of answers to e-mails. Today I'll be saying what the Phillies should do this offseason. My baseball trip has me in Boston today, seeing the deadly Boston vs. Oakland series.

    The Phillies have made a decision over the last few years that they want this team around a long time. Mike Lieberthal, Jim Thome, David Bell, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu are all signed in the long-term. Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd are still young enough to be on the roster for awhile before they reach free agency, so that leaves one position...second base. Placido Polanco is under contract next season, but the team has a great prospect at AAA in Chase Utley. Utley, formerly a standout at UCLA, is back at second base this season and tormenting the International League. He will play second base next season, leaving Polanco in the utility role.

    Larra Bowa has verbally challenged Jimmy Rollins this season, basically to use his talent to the best of his abilities. The Phillies have altered Rollins so much since his entrance to the Majors, he's a different player. Unfortunately, he's the type of player who wears his heart on his sleeve, and will let offensive slumps effect his defense. The team will try him again next season, but he's on a shorter leash then ever. They can't take a .320 or less OBP from their leadoff hitter.

    The rotation will remain mainly in tact. Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, and Brett Myers are guaranteed to be back. The team will lose $10M player Kevin Millwood, putting them in the market for an ace. Expect Ryan Madson or Taylor Buchholz to take the fifth starter job from Brandon Duckworth. But at the ace spot, the team will have two options: Millwood or Curt Schilling. Since early this season when rumors started that Arizona needed to dump salary, Philly has been a potential destination. The team has the minor league depth to make this type of trade, and bringing back Schilling would give a nice start to the new field.

    But what Ed Wade has in front of him is piecing together a new bullpen. This season has seen great things from a bullpen that has expectations low, and we will see how many players he re-signs. Here is the status of each:

    Jose Mesa- Team option- expect Philly to finally let Mesa go
    Rheal Cormier- Team option- 2003 bullpen MVP will be back
    Dan Plesac- Option- Retirement or Philly?
    Mike Williams- Team option- next few months decide
    Turk Wendell- Free Agent- Should move to greener pastures
    Terry Adams- free agent- team will bring him back
    Six guys could be gone from this bullpen. I expect Cormier, Plesac, and Adams to definitely be back. If Williams performs well in the next couple months, then Philly will pick up the option, and make him the 2004 closer. If not, then Mesa and Williams are both gone, and the team goes hunting. Eddie Guardado and Ugueth Urbina are free agents, and Trevor Hoffman will be as well. Expect the Phillies to land Guardado or Hoffman to close games. They will then add a few middle relievers, people in the Scott Sullivan mold.

    Ed Wade took a career gamble the last few years. He wanted Phillie Phield to open like Jacobs Field did, to a team with great potential. That will be true in 2004, whether Schilling or Millwood pitches Opening Day.

    WTNYAugust 18, 2003
    Bickering Back
    By Bryan Smith

    I recently got a couple of e-mails requesting my breakdown of the future on the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. I'm still on my baseball trip, but here's my response for the Mets. The Phillies will come tomorrow....

    The Mets are in a flux: the team should be rebuilding but has too many overpriced veterans to do so. For every Jose Reyes and Aaron Heilman, there's a Cliff Floyd and Tom Glavine. The Steve Phillips era ended horribly, and the team is going to need time to recuperate.

    The first thing on everybody's list is always to move Piazza to first. I think this should be a gradual movement, and that it shouldn't happen full-time next season. The team has carried two other catchers this season, Vance Wilson and Jason Phillips. Wilson has gotten the brut of the time behind the plate, as he's sound defensively and has a little bit of pop. Phillips is a good-hitting player, but more like Craig Wilson and Rob Fick, he simply outgrew the position. He's hitting .324/.394/.470 this season, mostly spotting Mo Vaughn at first base. The team's top first base prospect, Craig Brazell, is doing well in AA. The leftie is hitting .292/.331/.470. He doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he looks to be a great platoon candidate with Phillips. Art Howe's ability to juggle Piazza, Wilson, Phillips, and Brazell next season will be important.

    I also believe one key is moving Ty Wigginton back to second base. While his .269/.322/.410 numbers aren't great at third base, its solid for a second basemen. He may also be able to steal 20 bases per season, which would greatly help this team. His middle infield partner, Jose Reyes, will be there for a long time. Reyes is a rich man's Luis Castillo, he has 50SB speed, will lead the league in triples, and play some great defense at short. He may not be the best player to sit atop the lineup, with an OBP of .318, but he's deadly in the two-hole.

    That opens a hole for third base next season that Duquette may fill. Looking into the market, he should target young players on the rise who would be cheap. Well, that sounds like Adrian Beltre to me. While Beltre's numbers have been going down for three seasons, he still has amazing potential and is super young. Since his cost will be low, the Mets will be one of many teams in the market. But how many other clubs could offer Beltre something in the line of a two-year, $3M deal?

    The outfield has big question marks. Roger Cedeno must be released. His only true position is left field, which is also true for slugger Cliff Floyd. And what are Cedeno's strengths anyway? He can't sit atop a lineup anymore, and plays awful defense. He sounds more like a pinch runner than an everyday player. Floyd is locked in at left, but that's it for the outfield. While Raul Gonzalez walks a lot, and Timo Perez can post a decent average, neither has what it takes to play everyday. Jamie Duncan was tried in the outfield, but in the end that proved a failure.

    So, Phillips must find two outfielders? One must be able to lead off, and be relatively young so the team can stay in tact. I think the right fielder should have a good arm, and a solid bat. Not Vladimir Guerrero, but someone that still has a decent name. The right fielder that jumped off the page for me was Jose Guillen. He still won't be expensive, as the one-year fluke rumors will still be flying. But New York should have no problem outbidding Oakland, and the risk/reward is one to take. There are no genuine leadoff centerfielders available, so Duquette must target that through a trade. Landing Randy Winn from Seattle would be a good idea, and it shouldn't cost them too much.

    On to the rotation. It seems like the rotation is actually set for next season. The team will lead with Tom Glavine, whether his struggles reflect a decline in his career or a fluke. They like Steve Trachsel a lot, and will pay him $5M to stay around next season. Al Leiter has pitched good since coming back from injury, dropping his ERA from 5.57 to 4.68. He will be much better next season, when he is healthy. Aaron Heilman has proved to not be ready for the Majors, but will get a chance at landing a spot. Jae Seo was making a Rookie of the Year bid in June, before going on a bad streak. He's the type of flyball pitcher that should succeed in Shea Stadium and Dodger Stadium, but struggle in smaller stadiums. The team should be in the market for a 5th starter/long reliever.

    Giving a Sterling Hitchcock, Wilson Alvarez, or Andy Ashby one last shot to succeed wouldn't be the worst idea for this franchise. While Heilman prepares better at AAA, these veterans get a chance to boost their trade value and to become effective pitchers again. It helps when you're learning from Leiter and Glavine too.

    The bullpen is ugly. The team will be in the market for a closer, and they hope that the San Francisco Giants don't pick up Felix Rodriguez's option. If not, he fits the prototype of a young, high risk/reward player the team should be after. Having Mike Stanton, Grant Roberts, and Dave Weathers in a bullpen is a good start, so they'll have to build from there.

    This team isn't going to be good anytime soon, but by getting young risk/reward players, there's a chance that the ball will bounce their way.

    WTNYAugust 15, 2003
    Vacation
    By Bryan Smith

    I am going on vacation today, a baseball trip that will bring me to these places:

    Saturday- Baltimore Orioles
    Sunday- New York Mets
    Monday- New York Yankees
    Tuesday- Boston Red Sox
    Wednesday- Pawtucket Red Sox
    Friday- Rochester Red Wings
    Saturday- Buffalo Bisons

    Not bad, eh? So next week there will be a minimum of two posts, although I may add another one or two.

    WTNYAugust 15, 2003
    Trading A-Rod
    By Bryan Smith

    Recently, to the subject of much hoopla, the best player in Baseball talked about being traded. Alex Rodriguez was prepared to finish his career in Arlington when he signed a 10-year, $252 million contract in December of 2000. This was by far the largest contract in history, and no other deal has flirted with the $200 million barrier since.

    The reason teams are hesitant to devote so much money to one player is the result Texas has had since signing A-Rod:

    2001: 73-89, last place
    2002: 72-90, last place
    2003: 53-67 through 8/14, currently last

    It is unfair to say that A-Rod contributed to this failure, especially considering how the team's pitching staff did in those seasons:

    2001: 5.71 team ERA last in Majors (5.29 is next)
    2002: 5.15 is 27th in Majors, 4.96 relief ERA is worst
    2003: 5.86 team ERA last in Majors (5.11 is next)

    Those are horrid numbers, and the reason behind those horrible numbers. I mean, you mean to tell me Alex Rodriguez has hurt this franchise? C'mon:

    2001: .318/.399/.622 52HR/135RBI 18SB
    2002: .300/.392/.623 57HR 142RBI 9SB
    2003: .305/.399/.583 32HR/82RBI 15SB

    And remember that he missed significant time this season with a back injury, one which he recently recovered from. He's giving teams a reason to consider him this August, posting numbers of .405/.537/.952, hitting 7HR in just 42AB.

    What's really not fair of the Texas franchise is to say that A-Rod has hurt them become true players on the free agent market. The team's payroll this season was $72.941,367, or about $49M after A-Rod. If Billy Beane can consistently build a contender with $49M, why can't John Hart put 24 players around Rodriguez? I can answer that:

    Chan Ho Park- 5-years, $65M
    Zimmerman, Powell, Van Poppel- $19M through '04
    Rusty Greer- 3-years, $21.8M
    Gonzalez, Palmiero- $21M in 2003

    Bad contracts have killed this franchise. The team has consistently overpaid for pitchers, and re-signed hitters at insane prices. Greer is on the payroll for more than $7M next season, showing a huge mistake Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin made in his tenure. This team must allocate its funds better to compete, which John Hart should be able to do.

    One positive for the Rangers is that Grady Fuson has assembled one of the best minor league systems in the minor leagues. The team has four great youngsters in their lineup with Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Lance Nix, and Ramon Nivar. They also have Michael Young and Kevin Mench in their lineup to go with Rodriguez.

    The team made some great trades at the deadline, getting talent that will help them for years to come. They acquired future 1B Adrian Gonzalez, SP Ryan Snare, and 4th OF Will Smith all for Ugueth Urbina. Carl Everett yielded them Frankie Francisco, Josh Rupe, Anthony Webster.

    All that young hitting will come cheap for a few seasons, allowing the team to become big players on the free agent market. If Roger Clemens doesn't retire, the team should try to tempt him to come to his home state, as they did with Nolan Ryan. Clemens is still effective, and could teach these youngsters a lot. Pitcher Jose Dominguez made his debut this week, after being heralded as having the best changeup in all of the minor leagues.

    Although these are all examples of why not to trade A-Rod, what if they did? What if John Hart is ordered to look at the bounty he could get for the best player in the world? Here are the team's that could do so fiscally, and have it be feasible in an organizational sense.

    1. Los Angeles Dodgers

    The Majors worst offensive team desperately needs an offense, and Alex Rodriguez can provide that immediately. They play in the nation's second largest city, and have another new owner committed to winning. Unfortunately, the team has a ton of money committed to pitchers over the long-term.

    Here's a small list of the Dodgers major free agents in terms of money, not including Hideo Nomo, whom I'm going to assume has his option get picked up:

    Brian Jordan- 9M
    Andy Ashby- 8M
    Fred McGriff- 3M

    The team will have 20M off the books this season, but will be left with holes in left, and on the corners, assuming Adrian Beltre is non-tendered. But, if they can add a bat like A-Rod's to the team, everything else isn't important. Here's my proposed trade to get A-Rod in Dodger Blue:

    Los Angeles gets:
    Alex Rodrguez

    Texas gets:
    Cesar Itzuris
    Darren Dreifort
    Edwin Jackson
    Chin-Feng Chen
    Brian Pilkington

    Texas gets a good defensive shortstop to play in their offensive minded-lineup, and an expensive, veteran pitcher with a lot of upside. They also get one of the Majors' best prospects in the 19-year old Jackson, a potential left fielder in Chen, and another good pitcher with Pilkington.

    Los Angeles would then have about 7M more to spend on the team, which is just enough. They could move Paul Lo Duca to first, putting prospects Koyie Hill and Dave Ross behind the plate. Evans then would get a 3B at a decent price, possibly re-signing Robin Ventura. Then, trade Odalis Perez, yielding J.D. Drew from the Cards. They would have to spend their final money on a fifth starter, anyone from Wilson Alvarez to Rick Reed. LA's potential lineup:

    1. Dave Roberts
    2. J.D. Drew
    3. Shawn Green
    4. Alex Rodriguez
    5. Paul Lo Duca
    6. Robin Ventura
    7. Koyie Hill
    8. Joe Thurston/Alex Cora/Jason Romano

    1. Kevin Brown
    2. Hideo Nomo
    3. Kaz Ishii
    4. Joel Hanrahan
    5. Wilson Alvarez/Rick Reed

    I guarantee that team would win the NL West, and give LA the best marketing tool they could've imagined.

    2. Chicago Cubs

    This is really the only other team that could afford adding A-Rod, and giving up solid pitchers in return. Alex Rodriguez would solve the offensive woes that plague the team, and give Chicago a playoff team. Although, it would cost a lot for the team to get the young shortstop, and may do some harm to the vaunted pitching staff.

    When my site premiered, I wrote a guest column over at the Cub Reporter. The article stated the Cubs had about $12M to spend on free agents, and the $24M that Rodriguez costs is well over that figure. But, not if this was the trade:

    Cubs get:
    Alex Rodriguez

    Rangers get:
    Kerry Wood
    Alex Gonzalez
    Justin Jones
    Dave Kelton

    In this trade, Kerry Wood has the chance to pitch in his home state, where he could get advice from legends like Nolan Ryan and Orel Hershiser very often. It would give the Rangers a great arm at the top, and one capable of taking the franchise on his shoulders. Gonzalez is a good defensive shortstop with just enough pop to keep in a lineup. Kelton could be the left fielder next season, or be used in the DH role. And finally, Justin Jones is a second-tier Cubs prospect, but would probably make the Rangers top 10.

    All in all, I think this trade would help both franchises. The Tribune Company would be reluctant to drop Wood, who has drawn so much attention. But if they are going to do it for anyone, its Alex Rodriguez.

    I was trying to add more teams to this list, but it doesn't make sense. Here's why:

    - Padres- Apparently have the cash, but not the pitching
    - Giants- Would need to dump way too many contracts
    - Yankees/Red Sox- Umm...Jeter, Nomar?
    - Mariners- Have cash and pitching, but a little too much irony

    Trading Alex Rodriguez would do harm to his franchise, John Hart should spend his time worrying about getting the youngsters in his lineup while building a pitching staff. This team has playoff potential in about two seasons, but need to add some arms first.

    WTNYAugust 14, 2003
    Glass Speaks
    By Bryan Smith

    "We're going to be better next year than we are this year. "My experience in baseball is the mark of a good young player is that he gets better each year.

    I read this quote at the Kansas Star website yesterday, in which esteemed owner Daniel Glass predicted future success for his club. The quote is funny in its own, as experience in baseball and Glass don't belong in the same sentence. This was a man destroying the club who stumbled across a great manager and good farm system.

    Whie Allan Baird gets a lot of flack around the baseball world, there's no question his system produced prospects. While the loot wasn't great for Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye, they did get Angel Berroa, possibly the Rookie of the Year. Stars like Ibanez, Beltran, Sweeney, and MacDougal are products of good trades or good teaching. There is more on the way, as Jimmy Gobble has shown in his first two starts.

    Today's article is geared at deciding if Glass may be correct, could be better next year. In doing so, we must look at what has worked this season. A look at some stars from every month this season:

    April
    Record- 16-7
    Runelvys Hernandez- 3-0 1.60 22/33 16/15
    Jason Grimsley- 15G, 13/15.2 14/4
    Albie Lopez- 3-0 16/14.1 14/7

    Raul Ibanez- .345/.408/.575 4HR/12RBI
    Joe Randa- .329/.388/.632 5HR/14RBI
    Mike Sweeney- .265/.411/.515 5HR/19RBI

    May
    Record- 10-19
    Mike MacDougal- 11G 12/11 10/3

    Carlos Beltran- .301/.404/.538 7HR/17RBI
    Mike Sweeney- .337/.443/.517 4HR/11RBI

    June
    Record- 15-12
    Mike MacDougal- 2-0 2.77 11/13 11/8 8Sv
    Jose Lima- 2-0 15/18.1 5/7

    Mike Tucker- .300/.385/.500 3HR/14RBI
    Ken Harvey- .333/.389/.561 3HR/13RBI
    Angel Berroa- .327/.383/.592 5HR/11RBI

    July
    Record- 15-11
    Jose Lima- 5-0 1.44 20/31.1 18/10
    Curt Leskanic- 3/8.1 12/3 0ER
    Darrell May- 4-1 2.76 33/42.1 20/13

    Carlos Beltran- .323/.395/.535 4HR/21RBI
    Angel Berroa- .323/.337/.570 6HR/22RBI
    Raul Ibanez- .341/.370/.516 4HR/17RBI

    So far this month we're looking at...

    Record- 6-6
    Jimmy Gobble- 2-0 0.73 13/12.1 6/1
    Kevin Appier- 1-1 8/11 4/2 2ER

    Mix of Dan Carrasco, Curt Leskanic, Kris Wilson, Al Levine, Jason Grimsley...

    40IP 34H 9ER 15BB 28K

    Aaron Guiel- .310/.400/.500 1HR/7RBI
    Joe Randa- .300/.429/.450 1HR/5RBI
    Carlos Beltran- .278/.381/.528 3HR/9RBI

    That, all in all, is what has kept Kansas City stay afloat. There are many different pitchers in the different months, portraying what KC has gone through this season. The first month Hernandez and Lopez were very good, but then Runelvys got hurt, and Albie sucked. Jose Lima and Kevin Appier were good finds on the free agent market, and the team added some good bullpen depth. But Grimsley, Levine, Lloyd, and Leskanic are all free agents at the end of the season, along with Lima and Appier from the rotation. The offense has Raul Ibanez, Mike Tucker, Mike Diefelice, Brent Mayne, and Joe Randa as free agents. Is the team likely to get so many finds next season? No.

    Kansas City management insists they will re-sign Ibanez, despite the price. This may make them trade Carlos Beltran, which would get a solid return. They have David DeJesus, an OBP machine, waiting in the centerfield wings at AAA. A trade for Beltran could yield, from Los Angeles: Joel Hanrahan, Koyie Hill, and Wilken Ruan. Hanrahan would step in the rotation right away, as Hill would replace Mayne behind the plate. Ruan could platoon with the left-handed DeJesus in center.

    But, it will be re-building third base, the rotation, and the bullpen that will decide Baird's future. Desi Relaford was a good signing, and is the 2004 KC second basemen, can Baird find a player like that to replace Randa? Can the veteran foursome be replaced in the bullpen? Probably not. Here's a hypothetical 2004 lineup, with Tony Batista in as the third basemen:

    1. David DeJesus- CF
    2. Desi Reladord- 2B
    3. Mike Sweeney- 1B
    4. Raul Ibanez- LF
    5. Angel Berroa- SS
    6. Tony Batista- 3B
    7. Ken Harvey- DH
    8. Aaron Guiel- RF
    9. Koyie Hill- C

    And the rotation, with Jeremy Affeldt moving back into it:

    1. Hernandez
    2. Affeldt
    3. Gobble
    4. Ascencio
    5. May/Hanrahan

    Then, you could lock MacDougal and Kris Wilson into the bullpen. Ultimately, expect Affeldt to stay as a power set-up man in the 'pen, with May being left in the rotation.

    Glass' Royals have caught a lot of breaks in 2003, having rookies and Independant Leaguers all perform over their heads. The club will need much more consistency to do better next season, and for the Twins to not improve.

    Glass: if you couldn't properly own a team for ten years, don't start talking trash now.

    WTNYAugust 13, 2003
    Teenage Thoughts
    By Bryan Smith

    I'd like to point out I missed a few names that mentioned me in blogs this past week. Paul Sporer, of Rich and Sporer and the Southpaw are the two I'd like to mention. After you're finished with this, get over to those sites for more baseball knowledge.

    Many publications, namely Baseball Prospectus, don't really believe in taking stock in a young player until he hits AA. That being said, I think even Prospectus believers would be blown away by Greg Miller's last start for the Jacksonville Suns:

    7IP 2H 0ER 14K

    What could possibly make that line more impressive? How about the fact that it was his second start in AA, and he is at the ripe age of eighteen years. Truly amazing. How about his numbers for the season:

    AA= 1-0 0.00 5H/14IP 20K/2BB
    A+= 11-4 2.53 103/113.2 109/41

    One of last season's late first-round selections, Miller is quickly shooting up prospect charts with his great stats. Before June 2002's amateur draft, Miller was a high-school leftie topping out at 92MPH with a loopy slider. In an offseason shoulder strengthening program he lifted his fastball to 95MPH, tightened his slider, and added a changeup. Those three 'new pitches' have helped him to become the youngest pitcher in AA.

    Coincidence that the third youngest pitcher in AA is also a Dodger? No way. Edwin Jackson has also gained notice this season, as he is holding up in the Southern League, despite turning 19 before the season. Jackson attended the Futures Game, although he didn't pitch in the contest. His season statistics:

    7-6 3.37ERA 109H/136.1IP 143K/47BB

    So, the Dodgers have two teenagers in AA? And combined they've allowed 114 hits in 150 innings, while striking out 163? Amazing. The two have blown past James Loney and Franklyn Gutierrez in prospect charts, and likely are two of the top ten pitching prospects in all of baseball....

    TINSTAPP. That was the subject of Joe Sheehan's "Prospectus Today" yesterday for Baseball Prospectus premium subscribers. Sometimes better known as "There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect," Joe spoke of his lack of belief in young pitchers. As shown by my own hyping of teenagers Miller and Jackson above, I am going to have to disagree with Joe on that one.

    Yes, there are an astounding number of pitchers who get injured every season, and a number of hyped players don't spend time at the Big Show. But, isn't waiting for the next Mark Prior, the next Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux worth talking about these players? Isn't one Dontrelle Willis worth the hyping of ten Ryan Andersons? While the number of pitching prospects is hardly what Baseball America and even I document it to be, there's reason to hope. For example, I hope none of you heard of Greg Miller before today. But after today's column you'll remember the southpaw in the Dodger's farm system. And if one day Miller reaches Steve Carltonesque status, you can say, "I remember him striking out 14 in AA." That's what makes it worth it....

    One belief I do share with Baseball Prospectus, sometimes, is that drafting college players is 'safer' than high school amateurs. For that reason, I argued many times this season that Richie Weeks was a better option than Delmon Young. Well, Weeks signed last week, and made his low-A debut yesterday with the Beloit Snappers. He immediately becomes the number two second base prospect in all of baseball, sitting right behind Josh Barfield. That gives the Brewers a pretty mean infield of the future:

    1B- Prince Fielder- Ranked at the top of my first base rankings
    2B- Richie Weeks- A top two second basemen
    SS- J.J. Hardy- Easily one of the top five in the minors
    3B- Corey Hart- Ranks in any hot corner top-10

    Not bad. I will be giving my positional prospect rankings next week, but you can be sure to read those names in all of them. Throw in Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Luis Martinez, and others, and the Brewers will contend before 2010....

    While Weeks may be the draft's best prospect, no one has done better from the June draft than Arizona 3B/LF Conor Jackson. The first-round pick has thrived in rookie-ball, showing gap power and a watchful eye:

    Yakima Bears: .315/.405/.565 30 2B 51RBI 6HR in 51 games

    That's right, Jackson is averaging one RBI a game, and more than .5 doubles per game. A college hitter, it should be noted that Conor was expected to succeed at this level, but not at this rate. He is hitting the cover off the ball, and it will be interesting to see if those doubles ever become home runs as he rises through the system....

    The draft's best pitching prospect has now arrived. Kyle Sleeth signed with the Tigers over the weekend, with Detroit giving him $3.35M. It's good to know that Major League Baseball is trying to control signing bonuses, as giving a college pitcher $10M is crazy. Sleeth won't rise through the system like Mark Prior did in Chicago, but don't be surprised if he finishes 2004 in AA. Hopefully the team won't push him like they did Jeremy Bonderman.

    Sleeth became the fourth to last player in the first round to sign. First pick Delmon Young, fourth choice Tim Stauffer, and Lastings Milledge (12th), are all yet to sign. Young and Milledge have both used the college card to threaten the D-Rays and Mets, but it won't work. These two players won't pass up the big bucks now, but don't expect to see them soon. It will be good for Stauffer to take the summer off, as he was worked too hard in college. The Padres will get this deal done soon, and should see results as soon as 2005....

    Quickly a look at the next K-Rod:

    Seattle: 2-0 1.42ERA 17/31.2 40K/6BB

    Sensational numbers for Seattle's best reliever, Rafeal Soriano. I believe the bullpen is a better home for Soriano, as he could then throw his high-90s heat and hard slider more consistently. The team would be smart to make him the 2004 closer, but will likely put him in Freddy Garcia's spot in the rotation, the subject of tomorrow's column....

    And lastly, the line of my favorite prospect, now pitching in the Northwest League:

    7-1 1.84ERA 30H/44IP 55K/22BB

    Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners has dominated this league, and won't turn 18 until next March. The hype on him may be premature, but there's more upside in his right arm than anyone in the minor leagues.

    Debuts for Neal Cotts and Jose Dominguez yesterday, and neither was horrible. Come back tomorrow as I analyze the future of two players whom are depressingly underperforming.

    WTNYAugust 12, 2003
    Rebuilding the Reds
    By Bryan Smith

    The 1990s Cleveland Indians were lucky enough to open Jacob's Field at the exact time the team started to succeed. This created an immense fan base, and led to one of the great consecutive sellout streaks of this generation. That's not exactly how Carl Lindner's Reds are doing things this season.

    Cincinnati's new and publicly funded stadium, the Great American Ballpark, opened this season to subpar response from the community. The fans simply didn't want to see a team lacking an identity: half the team was seasoned veterans ready to win, the other half were youngsters part of some rebuilding plan. The team had one of the National League's great offenses with an outfield of Dunn-Griffey-Kearns, but one of the worst rotations, as it led Haynes-Graves-Dempster. Bob Boone made some bad decisions as manager, and Jim Bowden struggled to give the team pitching. So when July came around this season, Lindner dumped Boone and Bowden, and dealt away Aaron Boone, Scott Williamson, Jose Guillen, and Gabe White.

    Dealing Aaron Boone was actually a smart move: he'll hit arbitration this year, was blocking top-prospect Brandon Larson, and yielded pitcher Brandon Claussen. I think this move does loads for the 2004 Reds, giving the team a real bona fide pitching prospect. The Guillen and White deals made some sense, as Cincinnati wasn't in the bidding for either at season's close, they might as well land some prospects. But the Williamson deal didn't make sense. Phil Dumatrait? The team couldn't even land the Sox best pitching prospect, Jorge De La Rosa, for their best pitcher?

    Well, a lot of the money that was lost this season came back in those deals, giving Lindner about $5-6M more than the Opening Day payroll. Hopefully the tight-fisted owner will put that money back into the baseball team, as I believe there is a way for this team to contend soon. The young pitching of the Cubs, along with good markets in Houston and St. Louis will make this division very tough in the next few seasons, but the Reds aren't out yet. Let's examine a step-by-step way to get this team in contention:

    1. Trade Sean Casey
    While Casey is the team's most popular player and great defender, he's nothing more than a rich man's J.T. Snow. He will make $14.6M the next two seasons, which is more than most teams can afford for an under performing first basemen. So the team's management must signal another team's bad contract that will work better for the Reds.

    Barring injury, Livan Hernandez will pitch 217 innings this season, adding another year to his deal, at $6M in 2004. While common thought of Hernandez was the paltry San Francisco version, Livan isn't a bad addition:

    Since All-Star Break: 3-1 1.80 30/40 35/7, 8IP/GS

    Eight innings per start! Two complete games in five starts! A 0.93 WHIP! Hernandez has become the pitcher he was in Florida again. That being said, Casey makes more money than Hernandez in 2004, and has an extra 2005 year. So while he does fill a hole for Omar Minaya's Expos, the team simply can't afford that much. The team will need to add another expensive player, possibly Mike Barrett in the deal. That trade gives the Reds an innings-eater to ease the bullpen, and a backup catcher for Jason La Rue.

    2. Trade Ken Griffey Jr.
    I admit that Ken doesn't have quite the trade value he did in July, but there are still teams that want him. The team that Jim Bowden said was going to acquire him in July, the Yankees, should be interested again.

    I predicted in yesterday's entry that the Yankees would sign Vladimir Guerrero, but that doesn't change the interest they may have in Griffey. The team has been hesitant to go with Nick Johnson consistently at the designated hitter, and would welcome the bat of Junior. Brian Cashman should take advantage of his low trade value and get him this winter, despite the price.

    What can Cincy get in exchange for their center fielder? Well since his failures in the fifth starter spot, the Yanks have itched at getting rid of Jeff Weaver. It wasn't long ago that Weaver was an ace in Detroit, and his high salary will lessen the blow of adding Junior. The Yanks would have to throw in Juan Rivera, which shouldn't faze them dramatically. Rivera is a good prospect, but New York has been hesitant to play him everyday, although he has the necessary skills.

    This move would put Rivera in left field, and move Adam Dunn to Sean Casey's open vacancy at first base. It would open center, which brings me to....

    3. Trade Steve Smitherman for Jay Payton
    Smitherman in AA- .320/.404/.560 18HR 66RBI

    Not bad numbers. I saw Smitherman play at the Futures Game, in which he ended hitting the go-ahead home run. He's very big, and has more raw power than most players in the minor leagues. He could immediately replace Payton in Coors Field, at a cheaper cost and with more potential production.

    Payton still has the legs to play center, but has proven to have the bat of a left fielder. He would come into this lineup in the second hole, and make an impact right away. It would cost some money, but as I said, Lindner made some extra this season.

    4. Release Jimmy Haynes, Paul Wilson, and Ryan Dempster
    Dead weight. What was the team thinking signing Haynes to a two-year, $5 million deal? Haynes has proven very ineffective this season, as have the gambles of Paul Wilson and Ryan Dempster. While they eat innings, I'd rather have a youngster pitch five strong than have Wilson get lit up through seven. Plus, it would open a hole for...

    5. Sign Bartolo Colon
    I know you're thinking, "There's no way that Colon would sign with the Reds!" Normally, I would agree, but if Colon continues at this pace, it will be a very disappointing season. He may be inclined to sign an expensive one-year deal, as Ivan Rodriguez did a year ago, so that he can boost his value the next season.

    Colon eats innings like he does food, and can throw in the triple digits in every inning. I believe he's a better pitcher than his win total indicates this season, as the White Sox haven't scored enough runs. Bartolo would go to the top of the rotation, and really soften the bullpen. The same could be said for Livan Hernandez and Jeff Weaver, so it will leave the relievers fresh.

    The fourth spot of the rotation should go to Brandon Claussen. He has recovered from Tommy John surgery miraculously, and without his fastball dominated every level he's faced. Claussen is hardly a fourth starter, but in this rotation his expectations would be low. It would give the Reds a leftie in the rotation, and right now Claussen is likely their top prospect.

    Finally, the fifth hole is yet to be determined. Jose Acevedo has done great in a few spot starts, but now sees himself on the DL. Chris Reitsma is seemingly in the competition every season, and has great stuff. He never wins the battle, and will finally end up in middle relief. Other competitors are Aaron Harang, recently acquired for Jose Guillen, and Josh Hall, who's made one good start this year. My belief is Acevedo will get the job to start, with Hall making a few starts in Louisville first.

    6. Leave Ryan Wagner in the bullpen
    The next great closer is in the Major Leagues. Ryan Wagner was the Reds first-round pick THIS season, and has already logged eleven big league innings. He shows a plus fastball, and a great slider, and the Reds are undefeated in the games he has appeared in. Wagner set a NCAA record for K/9, shattering the record that his namesake Billy Wagner once set.

    There's talk the Reds will stretch Wagner out this offseason in the hope of making him a starter, a move that seems unnecessary. I have diagrammed a good rotation, not in need of help. But, with Scott Williamson getting dealt, the team will need a closer. That's where the Wagner comes in. I love the idea of having Wagner pitching the eighth and ninth to close out games, and his endurance is good enough to do so.

    If they do move Ryan to the rotation, it will invoke memories of 2000. In 1999, the Rookie of the Year went to the Reds' own Scott Williamson. Scott had thrown 93.3 great innings in the 'pen, grabbing 12 wins. The team moved him to the rotation the next season, which looked like a good move. But, Williamson was able to throw only two-thirds of one inning in 2001, thanks to arm problems due to moving to starting. While converting Wagner seems to be good for everyone, its not good for Wagner's right arm.

    Around Wagner in the bullpen will be failed starters Danny Graves and John Riedling. Both are effective pitchers the first three innings, but are annihilated when hitters get to see them a second time. They would be great middle relievers, and Graves could go back to short relief. Joe Valentine, whom was also acquired from the A's for Guillen, will be in the running for set-up man. No one will question his stuff, but Valentine struggles with command. Don Gullet is a revered pitching coach, and will surely work to fix those problems. Finally, the team should sign a leftie, as they did with Felix Heredia and Kent Mercker, for cheap off the free agent market. Graeme Lloyd may come in a minor league deal, or they could re-sign Heredia.

    Let's recap. Here's the lineup and rotation for my 2004 Reds:

    1. D'Angelo Jimenez- 2B
    2. Jay Payton- CF
    3. Austin Kearns- RF
    4. Adam Dunn- 1B
    5. Brandon Larson- 3B
    6. Juan Rivera- LF
    7. Jason La Rue- C
    8. Ray Olmedo- SS

    1- Bartolo Colon
    2- Livan Hernandez
    3- Jeff Weaver
    4- Brandon Claussen
    5- Jose Acevedo

    CL. Ryan Wagner

    Now tell me that team can't compete. I'll be back tomorrow with my first minor league report on this site. Be sure to check back.

    I'd like to thank Dave Pinto and Michael Blake for mentioning my site yesterday, and all those whom e-mailed a 'Good Luck'. I'd also like to give a shout out to Christian Ruzich, who let me write a guest column on the Cub Reporter as a debut for my site. If you haven't read it, here's the link. Thanks everyone.

    WTNYAugust 11, 2003
    2004 Effect of Deadline Deals
    By Bryan Smith

    Yankees
    Traded Brandon Claussen and David Manning to Reds for Aaron Boone
    Traded Raul Mondesi to Arizona for David Delucci, Bret Prinz, and Jon-Mark Sprowl
    Traded Robin Ventura to Dodgers for Bubba Crosby, Scott Proctor

    Ventura- .255/.350/.408 with 11HR and 0SB in 306AB
    Boone- .264/.326/.449 with 18HR and 17SB in 432AB

    While the differences between Aaron Boone and Robin Ventura aren't earth shattering, Boone has more power and speed, Aaron may have been most helped by his contract situation: he's on board through the 2004 season. With Raul Mondesi and Ventura, the Yankees had two spots in their lineup that would be open next season. Boone will close off the third base position, and also send a message to Drew Henson reading, "Go Play Football!"

    The right field situation is the more interesting one. The team has many options the rest of the season: Karim Garcia, Ruben Sierra, David Delucci, and Juan Rivera. But Yankees management has been hesitant to give Rivera significant playing time, decreasing the probability of locking down the 2004 full-time job. And with all-star Vladimir Guerrero readily available over the winter, trading Rivera seems definite. Guerrero will have a hard time finding suitors, as many teams don't have the money to go after the Dominican slugger. But the Yankees and Dodgers might, with New York having more money and exposure to offer Vlad.

    Trading Brandon Claussen makes the rotation race a little more interesting for next season. Technically, the team has four starters signed for next year: Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, Jon Lieber, and Jeff Weaver. The team has had it with Weaver though, and he will be in the first trade Brian Cashman can make. Also, expect the team to sign two of their three free agents, Roger Clemens, David Wells, and Andy Pettite. My guess is Clemens and Wells will re-sign, both taking less money and deferring payments.

    The yield for Mondesi and Ventura was unique, as the Bronx Bombers got younger in the two deals. David Delucci is a great left-handed hitting bat off the bench, and can play all three outfield positions. Bret Prinz will have a chance at taking Antonio Osuna's job in middle relief, although I believe the team will sign a veteran to block Prinz. Sprowl is a good hitting catcher that needs a position switch and another new organization, as prized prospect Dioner Navarro is in front of him. Bubba Crosby also needs another organization, and should draw interest as he flirted with .400 in the PCL this season. Finally, they got a sleeper in Proctor, who has shined since moving to the bullpen.

    Boston
    Traded Freddy Sanchez to Pirates for Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck
    Traded Phil Dumatrait and a minor leaguer to Reds for Scott Williamson

    Sanchez was penciled in for the 2004 2B job, with Todd Walker being a free agent. Bill Mueller has played second base on ten occasions this season, and is the favorite next season. That is considering Kevin Youkilis, the third base prospect that the Sox basically chose over Sanchez:

    Sanchez (AAA): .341/.430/.493 5HR in 211AB
    Youkilis (AA): .327/.487/.465 6HR in 312AB

    So, Epstein is hoping Youkilis takes third base next season, and Bill Mueller can play second base every single day. But, expect the club to get a super-bench player who can play both positions, someone in the Tony Graffanino mold.

    Suppan is a free agent at the end of the season, so his future value is zero. Jeff and John Burkett are likely gone, and the team has a few options for those spots. There are five in-house candidates: Jorge De la Rosa (top pitching prospect), Ryan Rupe, Casey Fossum, Ramiro Mendoza, and Byung-Hyun Kim. The battle should come down to Fossum and Mendoza, with De La Rosa starting in AAA. Expect them to pursue at least one starter, with Bronx Bomber Andy Pettite and the long sought after workhorse Bartolo Colon.

    The Williamson addition was a good one, as Dumatrait doesn't quite fit in the Theo Epstein prospect profile. Scott adds versatility to the 'pen, and won't be leaving the team next season. Boston will only lose Mike Timlin from the bullpen, and middle relievers are easily replaceable. Williamson allows the club to have two closers, along with Kim. This is the type of bullpen by committee that works, not the April 1 version.

    Orioles
    Traded Sidney Ponson to Giants for Kurt Ainsworth, Damian Moss, Ryan Hannaman

    Baltimore's farm system was believed to be one of baseball's five worst before the season. In 2003, they've added:
    - One of baseball's best prospects, John Maine
    - One of last year's best prospects, Kurt Ainsworth
    - One of next year's best, Adam Loewen
    - One of their former prospects, Matt Riley

    In Ainsworth, the team has found a cheap, possible improvement over Sidney Ponson. He'll be over his current injury by next year, ready to sit atop the Camden Yards' rotation. Moss is good at the end of a rotation, as he's a southpaw whom eats innings and changes speeds. The rotation will soon add Riley, who is doing well at AAA, after dominating the Eastern League. Fortunately, the team will lose the insane contracts of Scott Erickson and Pat Hentgen when the season ends.

    That money should go towards adding the middle of the lineup hitter this team has lacked for so long. I believe the candidates they're considering to be:
    - Juan Gonzalez
    - Rafeal Palmiero
    - Ivan Rodriguez
    - Miguel Tejada
    Also, expect the team to deal arbitration-eligible Jason Johnson over the winter, likely filling another lineup hole. But, the team's biggest worry should be solving the mysteries of Rodrigo Lopez, Omar Daal, and Buddy Groom.

    Athletics
    Traded Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine, Jeff Bruksch to Reds for Jose Guillen

    Jose Guillen will not solve Oakland's future offensive woes, as he will leave for bigger dollars in three months. As will the team's biggest threat, and former AL MVP, Miguel Tejada. That means the A's two best right-handed hitters are as good as gone. Bobby Crosby will replace Tejada, while Billy Beane will actively pursue a left fielder to replace Guillen. Packaging Terrence Long's contract with a good prospect would be a very good idea.

    What Oakland gave up isn't important, simply replaceable talent. They now have four great starters with the addition of Rich Harden, and some good options next year. Let's look at the options:

    Justin Duchscherer- 11-2 3.06 126/132.1 101/13 at AAA
    Mike Wood- 8-2 2.85 76/79 53/20 at AAA
    Joe Blanton- 8-7 2.57 110/133 144/19 at low-A, three great AA starts

    This allows the A's to trade Ted Lilly in the offseason to acquire their left fielder. I have two possible trade scenarios for you:

    - Ted Lilly, Terrence Long, John Rheinecker to Cards for J.D. Drew
    - Lilly to Jays for Bobby Kielty

    Angels
    Traded Scott Schoenweis, Doug Nickle to White Sox for Gary Glover, Scott Dunn, Tim Bittner
    Released Kevin Appier

    Releasing Appier and trading Scott Schoenweis will open two holes next year: one rotation slot, and middle relief. Assuming Jarrod Washburn, Ramon Ortiz, John Lackey, and Aaron Sele stay around, it could be quite a race for the fifth spot. The question comes down to when will Ervin Santana be ready for the Show? Likely not next April, allowing current fifth starter Scot Shields to retain the job.

    Then, with Schoenweis and Shields gone from the bullpen, two spots are open. Expect the Angels to sign a leftie-killer (like Gabe White), and add a long reliever from their system, possibly Greg Jones. Next year will be important for the former world champs to try again at proving 2002 wasn't a fluke season.

    Pirates
    Traded Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck to Red Sox for Freddy Sanchez

    Let me be the first on record to say Dave Littlefield has gotten too much heat. Yes, just Freddy Sanchez is probably not sufficient value for an overachieving Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck. But what does a rebuilding team need with a veteran innings-eater and LOOGY with a $2M contract?

    Sanchez will likely be the 2004 Opening Day 2B, and likely will bat in the second spot. This move has an interesting subplot, as the Pirates are owed Bobby Hill, Frank Beltran, or Steve Smyth from the Cubs. Hill and Smyth will probably get overlooked, as Beltran will become the closer next year. The money that was going to Pat Meares, Pokey Reese, Randall Simon, and Aramis Ramirez will go to finding new power hitters. How about actively pursuing Adrian Beltre and trading for Sean Casey? It wouldn't be too expensive, and those two still have great potential.

    This whole report changes if Brian Giles is traded in the next three weeks, although I think the Pirates will ultimately hang on to him.

    D-Backs
    Traded David Delucci, Bret Prinz, Jon-Mark Sprowl to Yankees for Raul Mondesi

    With the platoon of David Delucci and Danny Bautista slumping, the Diamondbacks couldn't afford not to add another outfielder at the deadline. At first it looks like Delucci, Prinz, and Sprowl is too much for Mondesi, but consider who is in front of Prinz and Sprowl in the organization:

    Brian Bruney, AAA- 2-1 1.21ERA 13H/22.1IP 22/10 K/BB
    Jose Valverde- ML- 2-0 1.53ERA 15H/29.1IP 40/15 K/BB
    Craig Ansman- AA- .324/.421/.624 with 15HR in 63G
    Robby Hammock- ML- .284/.313/.505 with 5HR in 109AB

    So, with those four players setting Prinz and Sprowl down in the team ladder, the trade was basically Delucci for Mondesi. While the ties to Delucci and Arizona date back to the team's existence, Arizona needed another bat in the lineup. Mondesi has more power, speed, and a better arm than Bautista, Delucci, or Quinton McCracken. This was a good job by Joe Garigiola of using organization depth to acquire Major League talent.

    Dodgers
    Traded Bubba Crosby, Scott Proctor to Yankees for Robin Ventura

    With Brian Jordan done, Fred McGriff not playing and Adrian Beltre not hitting, Dan Evans needed to add another bat. Problem is, Robin Ventura isn't the hitter he was with Evans in Chicago, and can't legitimately help this team. He will be gone at the end of the season, and expect the team to be non-tendering Adrian Beltre as well. With Jordan, Burnitz, Henderson, McGriff, Ventura, and Beltre all likely gone next year, Dan Evans will have the chance to add a big bat. The team will likely consider Vladimir Guerrero and Miguel Tejada, but it would be smarter to add Kaz Matsui, the next Japanese player, and the oft-injured Juan Gonzalez at the same price.

    While both Crosby and Proctor may end up playing in the Major League one day, it won't matter to Evans, who wasn't expecting performance from either before the season. This team has a great future with pitchers Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, and Joel Hanrahan to go along with James Loney, Joel Guzman, and Franlyn Gutierrez. I think it is likely that the Dodgers won't truly contend until these players get established, as Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort's contracts kill flexibility.

    What to watch this week

    Monday-Thursday
    - Cubs and Astros split
    - Red Sox and A's split
    Friday-Sunday
    - Royals over Twins
    - Phillies over Cards

    WTNYAugust 08, 2003
    T-minus 3 days
    By Bryan Smith

    Well, this site will get its official start on Monday, August 11. I will start with writing five articles a week, and hopefully reach no less than four. Some examples of the articles you'll find here:

    - How transactions will effect the future
    - Players chances on the free agent market
    - An organization's minor league system
    - Minor league profiles

    I hope this site offers a unique look into baseball you can't find regularly anywhere else. In the meantime, here's a link to the archives to the Baseball Prospectus set of articles "Can of Corn." Dayn Perry has spend his first six articles analyzing the minor league performance of the stars of today versus that of subpar Major Leaguers.

    Another new Baseball Prospectus column is "Prospecting" by U.S.S. Mariner's David Cameron. He's done a great job analyzing some of the minors hottest names, this week taking on the phenom B.J. Upton.

    I will be going to the White Sox vs. A's game on Sunday, especially interesting because its Rich Harden vs. Esteban Loaiza. I'll try to put my scouting report of Harden on my sidebar Sunday night.

    WTNYAugust 05, 2003
    Brand New
    By Bryan Smith

    I'm Bryan Smith, I used to operate a blog called Bryball. I'm a huge baseball fan, but I struggled to think of new articles to write every single day. I'm a very unique baseball fan, because while you're looking at stats around the web, I might be:

    - Creating mock 2008 teams
    - Looking into next offseason

    So, I can't stop thinking about the future of baseball, even while the present is interesting. Which brings me to what this blog is:

    This blog will update you on prospects, organizational rankings, future free agents, and give predictions on the future of Major League Baseball. Forget today, live tomarrow.