Baseball BeatOctober 10, 2008
BOS-TB: A History Lesson
By Rich Lederer

The defending World Series champions are set to face the team with the worst record in the majors last season to see which team will represent the American League in the 2008 World Series. There has never been anything close to such a matchup since the advent of the wild card.

Another story line is that Boston and Tampa Bay will be the tenth pairing of a wild card team and a first-place club from the same division. Let's check out how intra-division League Championship Series have played out in the past:

1996 ALCS: New York Yankees (92-70) over Baltimore Orioles* (88-74) 4-1
1997 NLCS: Florida Marlins* (92-70) over Atlanta Braves (101-61) 4-2
1999 ALCS: New York Yankees (98-64) over Boston Red Sox* (94-68) 4-1
1999 NLCS: Atlanta Braves (103-59) over New York Mets* (97-66) 4-2
2003 ALCS: New York Yankees (101-61) over Boston Red Sox* (95-67) 4-3
2004 ALCS: Boston Red Sox* (98-64) over New York Yankees (101-61) 4-3
2004 NLCS: St. Louis Cardinals (105-57) over Houston Astros* (92-70) 4-3
2005 NLCS: Houston Astros* (89-73) over St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) 4-2
2007 NLCS: Colorado Rockies* (90-73) over Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) 4-0

* denotes wild card team

As shown, the wild card entrant has won four of nine, equal to a success rate of 44.4%. Looked at it in reverse, the division champ has defeated the second-place club 55.6% of the time.

Boston won the World Series as the wild card in 2004. The Red Sox swept the Angels in the ALDS that year, came back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Yankees in the ALCS, and won four straight from the Cardinals in the World Series.

The Sox are 31-16 in the postseason with two World Series championships during the Theo Epstein era. That is nothing less than a remarkable record.

History is history. It doesn't necessarily tell us anything about today. But history has a way of repeating itself and those who ignore it do so at their own peril.

Baseball BeatOctober 09, 2008
League Championship and World Series Odds
By Rich Lederer

Round two of the playoffs begins today with the Los Angeles Dodgers visiting the Philadelphia Phillies. The NL West champs are coming off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs while the NL East leaders took three of four from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Given the fact that we have already previewed the Dodgers and Phillies (as well as the additional information in the Link of the Day in the sidebar on the left), I thought it might be more fun to take a look at the League Championship and World Series odds as presented by Bodog.

Odds to Win the League Championship Series:

Los Angeles Dodgers            Even
Philadelphia Phillies          -120
Boston Red Sox                 -140
Tampa Bay Rays                 +120

Odds to Win the World Series:

Boston Red Sox                  7/4
Tampa Bay Rays                  5/2
Los Angeles Dodgers             3/1
Philadelphia Phillies          13/4

Which League will the 2008 World Series Winner come from?

National League                +125
American League                -155

Will either team sweep the NLCS?

Yes                            +450
No                             -750

Exact Series Finish:

Los Angeles Dodgers 4-0        13/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1         5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2         4/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3         6/1
Philadelphia Phillies 4-0       8/1
Philadelphia Phillies 4-1       4/1
Philadelphia Phillies 4-2       5/1
Philadelphia Phillies 4-3      11/2

Exact Number of Games in the Series:

4 Game Series                   9/2
5 Game Series                   7/4
6 Game Series                   6/5
7 Game Series                   5/2

Odds to Win the 2008 NLCS MVP:

Manny Ramirez                   3/1
Brad Lidge                      5/1
Chase Utley                     5/1
Ryan Howard                     5/1
Cole Hamels                     6/1
Derek Lowe                      7/1
James Loney                     7/1
Jimmy Rollins                   7/1
Jonathan Broxton                8/1
Matt Kemp                       8/1
Pat Burrell                     8/1
Russell Martin                  9/1
Andre Ethier                   10/1
Takashi Saito                  12/1
Casey Blake                    15/1
Jayson Werth                   15/1
Shane Victorino                15/1
Field                          Even

Will either team sweep the ALCS?

Yes                            +475
No                             -800

Exact Series Finish:

Boston Red Sox 4-0              9/1
Boston Red Sox 4-1              7/2
Boston Red Sox 4-2              3/1
Boston Red Sox 4-3              5/1
Tampa Bay Rays 4-0             12/1
Tampa Bay Rays 4-1              6/1
Tampa Bay Rays 4-2              7/2
Tampa Bay Rays 4-3             11/2

Exact Number of Games in the Series:

4 Game Series                   9/2
5 Game Series                   7/4
6 Game Series                   6/5
7 Game Series                   9/4

Odds to Win the 2008 ALCS MVP:

David Ortiz                     5/1
Dustin Pedroia                  5/1
Jason Bay                       5/1
Jonathan Papelbon               5/1
Jon Lester                      6/1
B.J. Upton                      7/1
Evan Longoria                   7/1
Kevin Youkilis                  7/1
Akinori Iwamura                 8/1
Carlos Pena                     8/1
Dan Wheeler                     8/1
Jacoby Ellsbury                 8/1
Scott Kazmir                    8/1
Carl Crawford                  10/1
J.D. Drew                      10/1
Field                          Even

Who do you like and in how many games and why?

Baseball BeatOctober 03, 2008
Playoff News and Notes
By Rich Lederer

After a couple of days, the Phillies and Dodgers are up 2-0 in their NLDS and the Red Sox and Rays are leading 1-0 as the latter two teams head into their second games this evening. Meanwhile, the White Sox and Angels need to post victories to prevent going down 0-2 a la the Brewers and Cubs, which are facing elimination tomorrow.

Today's Schedule

White Sox (Mark Buehrle) at Rays (Scott Kazmir), 6:00 ET
Red Sox (Daisuke Matsuzaka) at Angels (Ervin Santana), 9:30 ET

The early game matches two left handers, a veteran finesse pitcher and a young power pitcher. The late contest involves two right handers. The free-swinging Angels may be just what the doctor ordered to cure Dice-K's tendency to throw lots of pitches and allow a walk every two innings. Look for Mark Teixeira, the only Halo who brings a patient and selective approach to the plate, to loom large in tonight's tilt.

Questions that come to mind:

  • Is this morning's bailout bill aimed toward the credit crunch in the banking system or squarely at the Brewers and Cubs?

  • Has C.C. Sabathia pitched his last game for Milwaukee? Where will he end up next season?

  • Why did so many underestimate the Dodgers when, in fact, they looked every bit as good as the Cubs coming into the NLDS?

  • Will the Dodgers overpay for Manny Ramirez this fall/winter? If you were Frank McCourt would you give him a five-year, $100 million contract? With a long-term deal in hand, will Manny be Manny? Or will he continue to bust his ass on the field and be Mr. Congeniality in the clubhouse?

  • With the Yankees missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and on the verge of significantly increasing its already MLB-leading revenues, how hard will the Steinbrenners and Brian Cashman go after Sabathia, Ramirez, and Teixeira? Whether these three sign with the Yankees or not, rest assured that they are all going to get nine-figure contracts at prices averaging close to $20M per season.

  • Has there ever been five players (Sabathia, Ramirez, Teixeira, Jason Bay, and Rich Harden) who switched leagues during the season and played such prominent roles down the stretch and are all doing their thing in the post-season?

  • Is Joe Torre loving October or what? The Yankees are out and the Dodgers are in.

  • Speaking of Manny and how good he has been since joining the Dodgers, do you realize that Andre Ethier (.360/.442/.640) has been nearly as productive as his new teammate (.396/.489/.743) since the latter's arrival on August 1?

  • Now explain to me why Ned Colletti signed Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones the past two off-seasons?

  • Is Evan Longoria any good? Where will he go in your fantasy draft next year?

  • Is Javier Vazquez the most maddening starting pitcher in baseball?

  • The city of Chicago is 0-3 in the post-season. Does the "L" in the L train stand for what I think it does?

  • At the same time, the city of Los Angeles is 2-1 if you include the Anaheim-based Angels. The Dodgers are doing their part to forge a freeway series but will the Angels, winners of 16 more games during the regular season, hold end up their end of the bargain?

  • With the benefit of hindsight, who do you think will win the four division series, the two league championship series, and the World Series? And, of course, who do you *want* to win? I'm looking at you Chicago fans.

  • Baseball BeatSeptember 29, 2008
    Unfinished Business
    By Rich Lederer

    And you thought everything would be settled by Sunday? Well, the National League playoff combatants have been finalized but the American League has yet to determine which team has won the Central and will be joining the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox in the post-season.

    The Chicago White Sox ended a five-game losing streak yesterday by beating the Cleveland Indians 6-0 to keep the team's hopes alive for at least another day. Gavin Floyd and the Pale Hose will face Freddy Garcia and the Detroit Tigers at home in a makeup game on Monday afternoon. If Chicago wins today, the Sox would host a tiebreaker against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday for the division title and the final playoff spot.

    Over in the NL, the Milwaukee Brewers are in, and the New York Mets are out. Behind C.C. Sabathia's complete-game gem on short rest and Ryan Braun's two-run blast in the eighth, the Brew Crew bested the Chicago Cubs 3-1 to earn the wild card berth in the senior circuit. This year marks the first time since 1982 that Milwaukee finds itself in the playoffs. In addition, as Bob Timmerman points out, "The Brewers are the first team to make the playoffs in both the AL and NL."

    Heading into Monday's action, here is how the playoff picture is shaping up:

    DIVISION SERIES

    Wednesday, October 1
    NLDS Game 1: Milwaukee at Philadelphia, 3 p.m. ET
    NLDS Game 1: LA Dodgers at Chicago, 6:30 p.m. ET
    ALDS Game 1: Boston at LA Angels, 10 p.m. ET

    Thursday, October 2
    ALDS Game 1: Minnesota/Chicago at Tampa Bay, 2:30 p.m. ET
    NLDS Game 2: Milwaukee at Philadelphia, 6 p.m. ET
    NLDS Game 2: LA Dodgers at Chicago, 9:30 p.m. ET

    Friday, October 3
    ALDS Game 2: Minnesota/Chicago at Tampa Bay, 6 p.m. ET
    ALDS Game 2: Boston at LA Angels, 9:30 p.m. ET

    Saturday, October 4
    NLDS Game 3: Philadelphia at Milwaukee, 6 p.m. ET
    NLDS Game 3: Chicago at LA Dodgers, 10 p.m. ET

    Sunday, October 5
    ALDS Game 3: LA Angels at Boston, TBD
    ALDS Game 3: Tampa Bay at Minnesota/Chicago, TBD
    *NLDS Game 4: Philadelphia at Milwaukee, TBD
    *NLDS Game 4: Chicago at LA Dodgers, TBD

    Monday, October 6
    *ALDS Game 4: LA Angels at Boston, TBD
    *ALDS Game 4: Tampa Bay at Minnesota/Chicago, TBD

    Tuesday, October 7
    *NLDS Game 5: Milwaukee at Philadelphia, TBD
    *NLDS Game 5: LA Dodgers at Chicago, TBD

    Wednesday, October 8
    *ALDS Game 5: Boston at LA Angels, TBD
    *ALDS Game 5: Minnesota/Chicago at Tampa Bay, TBD

    * if necessary

    The National League Championship Series is scheduled to commence on Thursday, October 9. The ALCS will begin on Friday, October 10.

    The World Series starts on Wednesday, October 22. If the series last seven games (and there are no rainouts), the World Champion will be crowned on... Thursday, October 30th!

    You can enjoy Halloween knowing full well that the baseball season is behind us. Kind of frightening, huh?

    * * *

    Following in our tradition of the past several years, we will be reaching out to the baseball blogosphere to assist us in bringing you playoff series previews on Wednesday and Thursday. In addition to these special articles, guest columnist Ross Roley will tell you "Why the Angels Won't Win the World Series (And the Cubs Will Win it All)" on Tuesday.

    Baseball BeatSeptember 29, 2008
    Shea Goodbye
    By Rich Lederer

    New York Mets fans waved goodbye to their stadium and season – and probably the club's bullpen – on Sunday.

    The "celebration" that followed must have been bittersweet for Mets fans. Watching live on TV, I enjoyed the cascade of former players, including many from the 1969 and 1986 World Series championship teams plus all-time New York greats Yogi Berra and Willie Mays, parading around the ballpark in replica jerseys. In a fitting ending, Tom Seaver threw out the *last* pitch to Mike Piazza. Seaver and Piazza walked out to center field – at times, arm and arm – and closed the fence behind them. You didn't have to be a Mets fan to get a little teary-eyed at that moment.

    MLB.com has Shea Stadium in pictures, broken down from 1964-1980, 1986-2000, and 2000-2007. The links can be found at the bottom of the sidebar on the right side of this page.

    My one and only photo from Shea Stadium was taken last May when my son Joe and I hooked up with Alex Belth (standing next to me) and Darren Viola (far right) in a game that was postponed due to rain before the first pitch was even thrown.



    While the above visit to Shea Stadium was my most recent, it wasn't my most memorable. Not by a long shot. I wrote about the latter three years ago in Home Runs to Remember.

    Rest in Peace, Shea Stadium and Michael O'Brien.

    Baseball BeatSeptember 25, 2008
    All in the Family
    By Rich Lederer

    Sports columnist Bob Keisser of the Long Beach Press-Telegram called me last week to arrange an interview to discuss the thread between my Dad and Baseball Analysts. We met on Monday afternoon and his article appeared in yesterday's newspaper.

    I took a screen shot of the online edition and embedded it below for your reading pleasure. You might say I wanted to make "Lederer following in dad's footsteps" a Keisser Permanente part of this site.


    Picture%207.png
    Picture%2021.png


    * * *

    The baseball blogosphere, including sites such as the Baseball Think Factory and Dodger Thoughts, have been very instrumental in making Baseball Analysts what it is today. My friends Darren Viola (aka Repoz) at BTF and Jon Weisman of DT pointed their readers to yesterday's article by linking to it. Thanks guys! [Update: Hat tip also to Rob McMillin of 6-4-2.]

    Bob Keisser's fellow columnist at the Press-Telegram, Doug Krikorian, wrote a column last Sunday in response to reaching a milestone birthday and mentioned my father when "reflecting on those many people who made a lasting impression on me since I came to Southern California in 1966 who are no longer on the scene."

    I can't believe how many sportswriters I knew around the vicinity who are now gone, people like Bud Furillo, Allan Malamud, Jim Murray, Bob Hunter, Bud Tucker, Jim Mitchell, Bob Tongue, Frank Finch, Bob McGraw, George Lederer, Dan Hafner, Mal Florence, James Melroy, Bill Miller, Don Merry, Hank Hollingworth, Allen Wolfe, Maxwell Stiles and countless others.

    Furillo, along with Melvin Durslag, who just celebrated his 87th birthday and resides in Manhattan Beach, was my journalistic mentor, while Malamud was my closest friend in the business, as we had phone conversations almost every morning till his Sept. 15, 1996 death, which happened to be the same date as the death of my beloved wife Gillian five years later.

    I forever will be grateful to Lederer, who solicitously shepherded me around on a one-week, three-city Dodger road trip to New York, Pittsburgh and Houston in August of 1968, making sure a wide-eyed, young sportswriter making his first major trip outside California wasn't overwhelmed by the circumstances, which he nearly was.

    Although Dad was "only" 6-foot-1, he wore a size 14 shoe. His footsteps, both literally and figuratively, are too big for me to fill. I never set out to compete with him. Instead, I have only tried to uphold his values and work ethic while living the life that I have chosen. I have enjoyed turning his vocation into my avocation and know that he wouldn't want it any other way.

    Baseball BeatSeptember 22, 2008
    Chicken Soup for the Baseball Soul
    By Rich Lederer

    My longtime friend, Bill Husak, the Athletics Director at Loyola Marymount University, sent me the following email yesterday evening: "This will do your heart good." Dr. Husak included this link after his short message. The link is a video clip that can also be enjoyed at YouTube.



    The following paragraph on the site of the Lexington Herald-Leader adds color to the video:

    Adam Bender, 8, is one of several kids who plays catcher in Southeastern’s rookie league at Veterans Park. What makes Adam stand out is that he plays one of the toughest positions on the field with only one leg. Because of cancer, he had his left leg amputated when he was one. Adam doesn’t use a prosthesis, and only uses crutches when he reaches base for the Astros.

    In addition to the video, be sure to check out Adam Bender at the Reds, a slideshow consisting of 26 photos coupled with an audio from the boy's parents, Michelle and Chris Bender.

    Since the story of 8-year old cancer survivor Adam Bender was published in the Lexington Herald-Leader, and on www.kentucky.com, on June 1, 2008, the one-legged catcher has been invited to throw out first pitches at a Chicago White Sox game, a Cincinnati Reds game, a Houston Astros game, and has been invited to a Garth Brooks benefit in Las Vegas. He is also being profiled for a story that will air on ESPN. On Sunday June 6, 2008, Adam threw out the ceremonial first pitch to Adam Dunn of the Reds. Because of cancer, Adam Bender had his left leg amputated when he was one but that hasn’t stopped him from playing baseball for the Astros in the Southeastern Rookie League at Veterans Park.

    I'm not the first one to report this story but thought it was inspirational enough to bring it to the attention of readers who, like me, missed out when it was first shared last spring.

    Adam Bender makes the big leagues and the Kid can do it all on one leg are worthwhile reads as well.

    You don't have to be a baseball fan to enjoy this heartwarming story. But it doesn't hurt either. Just ask Adam.

    Baseball BeatSeptember 21, 2008
    The End is Near
    By Rich Lederer

    And now, the end is near,
    And so I face the final curtain.
    My friends, I'll say it clear;
    I'll state my case of which I'm certain.

    I've lived a life that's full -
    I've travelled each and every highway.
    And more, much more than this,
    I did it my way.

    If ballparks could talk, I have no doubt that Yankee Stadium would be singing the above lyrics today. The words from My Way seem even more appropriate than those from New York, New York even though the sounds from the latter are sure to be blaring over the loudspeakers tonight.

    The end is indeed near. After 85 years, Yankee Stadium hosts its final game tonight when the Bronx Bombers face the Baltimore Orioles on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball (8 p.m. ET).

    SI.com has a photo gallery of 28 special memories, including a view of the stadium from the outside, the famous shot of Lou Gehrig pausing and wiping a tear from his eye during his farewell speech, Brooklyn Dodgers left fielder Sandy Amoros making that one-handed grab down the left field line in the 1955 World Series, Jackie Robinson's steal of home in that same World Series, Yogi Berra leaping into Don Larsen's arms after the latter's perfect game in the 1956 World Series, Roger Maris' 61st home run, Reggie Jackson's three-HR game in the 1977 World Series, George Brett going ballistic in the Pine Tar Game in 1983, Jeffrey Maier's catch in 1996, David Wells' and David Cone's perfect games, Aaron Boone's walk-off home run in the 11th inning of Game Seven of the 2003 ALCS, Derek Jeter's catch in 2004, Alex Rodriguez's 500th home run in 2007, Josh Hamilton during the Home Run Derby prior to the 2008 All-Star Game, and many, many more non-baseball shots.

    Knowing this was the last opportunity to witness a game at Yankee Stadium, my son Joe and I traveled to New York in May for what was the Baseball Trip of a Lifetime. We went to Yankee Stadium, as well as Fenway Park, Shea Stadium, and the Hall of Fame. We stood next to Cliff Lee on the subway all the way from Central Station to Yankee Stadium, got there early and hung out with the fans, toured Monument Park, took plenty of photos, and watched Lee toss seven shutout innings as the Cleveland Indians beat the not-so Bronx Bombers 3-0.

    079018867final.jpg DSCN0234.jpg
    Roger Maris and Joe standing next to the Babe. Only in Monument Park at Yankee Stadium.

    Farewell Yankee Stadium and the memories it provided all of us. You did it your way.

    * * *

    What was your greatest memory of Yankee Stadium?

    Baseball BeatSeptember 15, 2008
    Dis and Data
    By Rich Lederer

    While the rest of the baseball world is talking about Francisco Rodriguez's saves record, Carlos Zambrano's no-hitter, and the division races in the AL East, AL Central, and NL East, as well as the wild card in the senior circuit, we are going to change it up and discuss some statistical nuggets outside of the main.

  • Roy Oswalt has thrown two consecutive shutouts and has not allowed a run in his last 32 1/3 innings pitched. The 31-year-old righthander has lowered his ERA by 1.50 during the past two months, dropping from 5.04 on June 15 to 3.54. He is 10-2 over this period. The reason for his success? Look no further than the fact that Oswalt has struck out 73 batters while walking only 18 and allowing just four HR over 96 IP. As Peter Gammons pointed out on Baseball Tonight a few days ago, Oswalt has won more games than any other pitcher since he made his MLB debut in 2001.

  • Are you looking for a fantasy sleeper for next year? How about Shin-Soo Choo, who is hitting .340/.426/.605 since the All-Star break? His OPS (1.031) ranks seventh in the majors during this period. The 26-year-old outfielder started the season on the disabled list (recovering from surgery on his left elbow), was sent to the minors for rehabilitation in mid-May, and was recalled at the end of May. He has been playing fairly regularly ever since and recently ended a 12-game hitting streak and run of 28 straight games reaching base safely.

    As detailed below, the lefthanded-hitting Choo has hit ground balls to the right side while lifting fly ball outs to center and left at Progressive Field. However, he has slugged six of his seven home runs to the right of center, including four toward the right field line.

    Picture%202.png

    Born in South Korea, Choo was signed by the Seattle Mariners as a non-drafted free agent in August 2000. Cleveland acquired him for Ben Broussard in July 2006. The latter was released by the Texas Rangers earlier this season and has toiled in the minors for the Yankees and Cubs since last spring. The negative with Choo is that he must serve two years in the Korean military beginning no later than 2010.

  • Speaking of hot players since the All-Star game, Melvin Mora (.389/.433/.704) is first in the majors in AVG, fifth in OBP, and 3rd in SLG and OPS (1.137). Only Manny Ramirez (1.185) and Albert Pujols (1.172) have produced higher on-base plus slugging averages during the second half than Mora. The 36-year-old third baseman recently returned to the Baltimore Orioles lineup after missing 10 games in late August and early September.

    Unlike Choo, Mora has been using the entire field but has been pulling all of his home runs at Camden Yards.

    Picture%203.png

  • From the beginning of the 2005 season through this past weekend, Jason Bay has been successful on 46 of his last 50 stolen base attempts. Yes, the former Pittsburgh Pirates and current Boston Red Sox outfielder has stolen bases at a 92% rate over the past four years, including 10-for-10 this season. Moreover, Bay, who turns 30 on Saturday, has slugged 117 homers (or approximately 30 per season) during this period. Except for an aberration last summer, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2004 has hit between .282-.306 with 26-35 HR for each of the past five campaigns.

  • Vladimir Guerrero (.298/.360/.506 with 24 HR) is on the cusp of tying Lou Gehrig for the all-time record with the most consecutive seasons hitting .300 and 25 home runs. Big Daddy Vladdy, as he is affectionately known in Anaheim, needs to bump up his batting average ever so slightly and crank another home run to become only the second player to put up these numbers 11 times in a row. Gehrig (1927-37) almost did it 12 straight, falling just short of both marks (.295 with 29 HR) in his last full season.

  • Mike Jacobs (32 HR), Dan Uggla (30), Hanley Ramirez (30), and Jorge Cantu (26) became the first infield to slug 25 home runs in the same season. The Marlins accomplished this feat on Friday when Cantu went yard for the 25th time. He jacked another homer the following day and has an outside shot at joining his fellow infielders with 30 dingers.

    Ramirez became the latest member of the 30-30 club when he cranked his 30th four bagger of the season on Saturday. With 90 walks, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound shortstop has taken his game to the next level. He leads the NL in runs (115) and ranks fourth in BB, fifth in OBP (.396) and SB (33), eighth in OPS (.921), and 12th in HR. Did I mention that Ramirez won't turn 25 until December?

  • Baseball BeatSeptember 11, 2008
    Photos and Finishes
    By Rich Lederer

    I went to the Yankees-Angels games on Tuesday and Wednesday. The teams split those two contests but the Halos captured the series by also beating the Bronx Bombers on Monday in the opener 12-1.

    Picture%201.pngIn downing the Yankees on Wednesday, the Angels won their fourth AL West title in five years and became the first team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot when the Texas Rangers lost to the Seattle Mariners 8-7 in a game that concluded about an hour after Francisco Rodriguez had nailed down his 56th save of the season. Meanwhile, the Yankees are likely to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993. New York has had one heckuva run during this period, winning four World Series championships, including three in a row from 1998-2000.

    I had the good fortune of sitting in the front row behind the Angels' dugout on Tuesday evening. The adjoining photo was published on the top of the front page of the Long Beach Press-Telegram's sports section yesterday. That's me giving Ervin Santana an appreciative clap of the hands after the Angel starter exited the game in the seventh inning behind 6-1. While Santana drew the loss, the 25-year-old All-Star pitcher is enjoying a breakout season, ranking in the top half dozen in the league in ERA (3.36), WHIP (1.12), SO (197), IP (198.1), wins (15), and WPct (.714).

    While the Angels were celebrating their division title, I had this epiphany and began to wonder on my drive home just how many MLB games I have attended over the course of my lifetime. Without thinking it through, my initial guess was "about a thousand." However, after putting pencil to paper, I believe the real number is somewhere in the low 600s.

    OK, so how did I arrive at that estimate? Let me count the ways (or the games in this case). I've been going to the ballpark on a fairly regular basis since Dodger Stadium opened in 1962 (see linked photo, circa 1961, with brother Tom on the left, sister Janet on the right, and me standing next to her in what would later become the outfield). Roughly speaking, I would venture to say that I have averaged around 15-18 games per year for about half of those 47 years and maybe 8-10 for the other half. That works out to approximately 600. From there, I would add 10 or 20 games from the Coliseum years from 1958-1961 to come up with a grand total of around 615-620.

    My peak years were from 1962-1978 and 2002-2008. The lean years were from 1979-2001. The latter was a combination of Dad's death in 1978 – reducing the number of opportunities to go for free (hey, what can I tell ya?) – and the priorities of adulthood, including family and business. I thoroughly enjoyed my time as a youth sports coach from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s, even if it meant watching Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series on TV rather than in person.

    RichTomDodgerStadium1962shopped.jpgMy love for baseball has never wavered, except for a brief period in 1994 and early 1995 when I swore off the game on the heels of the player strike that numbed me more than anything else. I had to be talked into our fantasy baseball pool that spring despite being a charter member dating back to the 1970s when I balanced playing fast-pitch softball, fantasy baseball, and APBA in the years leading up to and including the first few years of married life.

    Over the years, I have watched MLB games in a dozen venues, from the Coliseum as a kid to Yankee Stadium as recently as last May when my son Joe and I took the baseball trip of a lifetime. I have also been to dozens of high school, college, minor league, and spring training facilities, and have even attended an NCAA Final Four at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay. But there is no question that I have spent the vast majority of my time watching professional games at Dodger Stadium (left, with Tom in 1962) and Angel Stadium.

    One of the things I haven't had the pleasure of enjoying is a Freeway Series. Maybe this will be the year that the Dodgers and Angels meet for all the marbles. It would only be fitting for me in what is Dad's 80th birthday, the Dodgers' 50th anniversary in L.A., the 40th anniversary since my father left the Dodger beat and went to work for the then California Angels, the 30th anniversary of his death, and the 20th anniversary of Gibson's home run.

    In the meantime, the Yankees head back to New York for the final 10 games in Yankee Stadium. The end of an era in more ways than one.

    * * *

    How many MLB games and stadiums do you suppose you have you been to?

    Baseball BeatSeptember 08, 2008
    Mutual (Option) of Oh-My-Ha
    By Rich Lederer

    Carlos Delgado slugged two home runs off Cole Hamels in the Sunday Night Game of the Week. There have now been 249,996 homers hit during the regular season from 1876 to the end of play yesterday. Who will be the "lucky" player to get credit for the 250,000th four bagger? The Baseball Think Factory has been posting every home run of late and will be tracking tonight's games closely. In the meantime, you can check Baseball-Reference.com for a list of all the milestone home runs over the years.

    Speaking of Delgado, the New York Mets first baseman has been on a tear since June 27. He has ripped 22 homers in his past 65 games while nearing or exceeding the magical .300/.400/.600 rate lines (with an OPS of 1.017) during this period. The 36-year old has had three two-HR games in the past two weeks.

    As we pointed out in Sneak Preview of the 2009 Free Agents, which was posted right before his latest hot streak:

    The Mets and Carlos Delgado have a $12M mutual option for 2009 (with a $4M buyout). The 36-year-old slugger got off to a poor start this season (.198/.297/.323 in April) but has hit .314/.407/.594 since July 1. Based on his buyout, the true cost of bringing him back is only $8M. He just may be a bargain at that price. However, Delgado, the team leader of the resurgent Mets, may not give his consent to such a deal. Stay tuned.

    Well, I have no doubt that the Mets will exercise their portion of the option but won't be surprised if Delgado responds with the ol' "Thanks but no thanks" line. Put me in his shoes and I know I would. Delgado should be able to do better, both in terms of years and average annual salary. In fact, the risk of declining his option is next to nil for him as he could land at least an $8M deal with any of a number of teams for 2009. It says here that Delgado will find a suitor willing to give him a three-year contract for north of $30M. That team may, in fact, be none other than the Mets.

    In the meantime, the bigger question for the game is why in the world do teams and players agree to "mutual" options? When you sit back and think about such arrangements, they are really nonsensical. It's kind of like marriage and divorce. While it takes two to get married, it only takes one to demand a divorce. A bilateral agreement in which either side can opt out is really unilateral in nature, at least when it comes to ending matters.

    Look, I realize that a mutual option suggests that both parties are interested enough in the other side to maintain the relationship at a specified price for another year. While that sounds fine and dandy on the surface, the truth of the matter is that such an arrangement has no teeth. Neither party can enforce the extension on the other. If that is indeed the case, then what is the point of a mutual option? When you cut to the chase, the player in question becomes a free agent if either party declines their half of the option. As such, why bother?

    There have been a number of teams and players that have agreed to mutual options during the past year. Oh, it might play well at the time of signing, but a mutual option is basically meaningless. Team options make sense. Player options make sense. Yet mutual options, as in this case, are ineffectual.

    Now, if the Mets agreed to bring back Delgado and he refused, and the club was no longer responsible for the $4M buyout, then I could definitely see the merits of a so-called mutual option like this one.

    Or, let's say the Mets had the right to sign Delgado for one year at $14 million and the latter had the ability to force the Mets to keep him for another season at $10 million, then you would have something that was worthwhile. If Delgado's market value had risen to $14M or more, the Mets might be motivated to bring him back. On the other hand, if Delgado's value had fallen to $10M or less, he may wish to exercise his option and return to the team for one more season.

    Mutual of Omaha may sell a multitude of products, but I would advise Delgado to click on the link to "agents" rather than "long-term care" because one of the hottest hitters in the majors won't be getting much of the latter should he agree to his side of the mutual option.

    But, more to the point: Just as this mutual option fails to make sense for Delgado, the reality is that mutual options, as a whole, are a totally flawed vehicle.

    Baseball BeatSeptember 02, 2008
    Open Chat: And Down the Stretch They Come!
    By Rich Lederer

    On the heels of Labor Day, here is a snapshot of the standings.

    AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    Rays         84   51  .622  -
    Red Sox      80   57  .584   5
    Yankees      73   64  .533  12
    Blue Jays    70   66  .515  14.5
    Orioles      63   74  .460  22
    
    AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    White Sox    77   60  .562  -
    Twins        77   60  .562  -
    Indians      66   70  .485  10.5
    Tigers       66   71  .482  11
    Royals       57   79  .419  19.5
    
    AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    Angels       83   53  .610  -
    Rangers      67   72  .482  17.5
    A's          63   74  .460  20.5
    e-Mariners   54   83  .394  29.5
    
    NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    Mets         77   61  .558  -
    Phillies     75   63  .543   2
    Marlins      70   68  .507   7
    Braves       59   79  .428  18
    e-Nationals  53   85  .384  24
    
    NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    Cubs         85   53  .616  -
    Brewers      80   57  .584   4.5
    Cardinals    74   64  .536  11
    Astros       72   66  .522  13
    Reds         61   76  .445  23.5
    e-Pirates    57   79  .419  27
    
    NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
    TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
    Diamondbacks 70   67  .511  -
    Dodgers      68   70  .493   2.5
    Rockies      65   74  .468   6
    Giants       59   78  .431  11
    Padres       53   84  .387  17
    

    e - mathematically eliminated from the postseason

    Which team is best positioned to win the World Series? Tradesports.com, the world's leading sports trading exchange, offers the following odds (expressed in terms of percent):

    Symbol          Bid     Ask     Last 
    ANGELS          16.5    17.5    18.2
    CUBS            15.1    18.1    18.5
    REDSOX          14.2    15.4    13.3
    RAYS            12.1    13.9    13.9
    METS             7.2     9.5     9.5
    BREWERS          8.2     9.8     7.1
    WHITESOX         4.8     6.3     5.0
    PHILLIES         3.0     4.2     3.5
    DIAMONDBACKS     4.5     5.7     4.3
    TWINS            4.7     6.5     4.6
    DODGERS          1.6     3.0     1.8
    YANKEES           -      0.5     0.5
    CARDINALS        0.1     0.4     0.9
    MARLINS          0.3     0.5     0.3
    TIGERS            -      0.1     0.1
    ATHLETICS         -      0.1     0.1
    BRAVES            -      0.1     0.1
    BLUEJAYS          -      0.2     0.1
    REDS              -      0.2     0.1
    ROCKIES           -      0.7     0.4
    RANGERS           -      0.1     0.1
    ASTROS            -      0.3     0.1
    PADRES            -      0.1     0.1
    ORIOLES           -      0.1     0.1
    PIRATES           -      0.1     0.1
    GIANTS            -      0.1     0.1
    ROYALS            -      0.1     0.1
    INDIANS           -      0.1     0.1
    NATIONALS         -      0.1     0.1
    MARINERS          Expired at 0.0
    

    The Rays, a 200:1 choice to win the World Series back in March, are now down to a 7:1 or 8:1 pick. Even though Tampa Bay has the best record in the majors (while competing in perhaps the toughest division in baseball), the betting public ranks the club fourth as far as its chances of winning it all. Division rival Boston, the Angels, and Cubs are all thought to have a better shot at being crowned World Champs.

    Who do you like and why?

    Baseball BeatAugust 30, 2008
    Having a Ball at the Angels Game
    By Rich Lederer

    My nephew Casey went to the Angels game Friday night and was caught on TV holding up a ball that coach Alfredo Griffin had flipped to him earlier that evening.

    casey%20at%20Angels.jpg

    Casey is 8 years old. He lives in Phoenix. His family is in town for his older brother Troy's ice hockey tournament in Valencia and my Mom's 80th birthday, which we will celebrate at our house on Sunday. Casey was accompanied at the Angels-Rangers game by his cousin Brett. The latter is a professional golfer who qualified for his first Nationwide Tour event – the Northeast Pennsylvania Classic – last week. He shot 70-70 and missed the cut by one stroke. Brett, the 2007 Big West Conference champion, won his first pro tournament – the Rising Star Open on the Adams Golf ProTour Series – a month earlier.

    Brett took the following photo of Casey and immediately emailed it to his Dad (my brother Tom), who forwarded it to me while the game was in progress.

    casey%20with%20ball.jpg

    In the Dept. of the Circle of Life, the logo on the retro Angels hat that Casey is wearing was designed by his grandfather. The hat made its debut in 1971 and lasted all of one season. I guess the small "a" was never meant to be in a stadium known as the Big A. Nonetheless, the Angels held a retro hat promotion on May 15. It seems as if these hats are now more popular than ever.

    Casey and Brett are going to the Angels-Rangers game tonight. However, they won't be in the front row this time. Instead, the cousins will be using my tickets on the club level. The likelihood of catching a ball is remote. That said, they should see a good contest as Jered Weaver will be on the hill for the Halos.

    What am I doing to miss Weaver in action? Well, Tom and I are heading to Valencia to watch Troy play an ice hockey game. Our brother Gary is the coach.

    Now THAT is called family fun.

    Baseball BeatAugust 27, 2008
    Sneak Preview of the 2009 Free Agents: Outfielders and Designated Hitters
    By Rich Lederer

    On Monday, in the first of a three-part series on the free agent class of 2009, we took a look at the catchers and infielders. Today, we will break down the outfielders and designated hitters.

    The list below includes a number of big-name players, most of whom are well into their 30s and past their peaks. In fact, Rocco Baldelli and Adam Dunn are the only free agent outfielders under the age of 30.

    Outfielders
    Bobby Abreu        NYY
    Moises Alou        NYM
    Garret Anderson*   LAA
    Rocco Baldelli     TB
    Willie Bloomquist  SEA
    Emil Brown         OAK
    Pat Burrell        PHI
    Endy Chavez        NYM
    Adam Dunn          ARI
    Jim Edmonds        CHC
    Cliff Floyd        TB
    Brian Giles*       SD
    Ken Griffey Jr.*   CWS
    Vladimir Guerrero* LAA
    Raul Ibanez        SEA
    Mark Kotsay        ATL
    Jason Michaels*    PIT
    Greg Norton        ATL
    Jay Payton         BAL
    Scott Podsednik    COL
    Manny Ramirez      LAD
    Juan Rivera        LAA
    

    The Yankees exercised their option on Bobby Abreu last winter and the veteran outfielder has responded by producing at a slightly better clip in 2008 (.297/.369/.467) than in 2007 (.283/.369/.445). However, despite seeing as many pitches per plate appearance as ever, Abreu's walk (10.1%) and BB/SO (0.61) rates are the lowest of his career. His secondary average (.291) and stolen base rate (58%) are also at all-time lows. Add in the fact that he is a below-average right fielder and will turn 35 next March and one can't help but to be skeptical of Abreu, especially if his contract demands call for a multi-year deal at an average of eight figures per season.

    Moises Alou is out for the season following hamstring surgery. Now 42, he may never play again. If so, Alou will retire with a line of .303/.369/.516 and 332 HR. Based on his comps, Felipe's son seems like a worthy candidate for the fictional Hall of the Very Good.

    The Angels are unlikely to pick up a $14 million team option on Garret Anderson (.284/.318/.426) and will either send him packing with a $3M gold watch (the cost of his buyout) or try to negotiate a short-term contract that would be more representative of his current playing ability. The Halos showed their loyalty when they signed him to a four-year extension back in April 2004 for a whopping $48M so it's time for GA, now 36, to do likewise if he is interested in finishing his career in Anaheim.

    The Rays declined their team option on Rocco Baldelli on April 1 and will instead pay him a $4M buyout. After sitting out the first four months of the season with a mitochondrial disorder, the sixth overall pick in the 2000 draft returned to action two weeks ago and has gone 8-for-23 with 2 HR. Baldelli can help out Tampa Bay down the stretch and his marketability this off-season as the soon-to-be 27-year-old has only played 135 games since the end of the 2004 campaign.

    After nine seasons with the Phillies, Pat Burrell, who turns 32 in October, will become a free agent for the first time. The No. 1 overall draft pick in 1998, Burrell signed a five-year MLB contract that summer, then inked a six-year extension prior to the 2003 season. Pat the Bat can hit and ranks in the top ten in the NL in OBP (.388), SLG (.548), OPS (.936), HR (30), and BB (89). Not too dissimilar to Adam Dunn in terms of production and position, Burrell should reap huge financial rewards this off-season for the third time in his career.

    Arizona acquired Adam Dunn earlier this month in a waiver deal that sent Dallas Buck, Wilkin Castillo, and a player to be named later to Cincinnati. While Dunn may be nothing more than a seven-week rental (and maybe longer if the Diamondbacks make the playoffs), don't rule out Arizona in the free agent sweepstakes should he play well down the stretch. The 6-6, 275-pound slugger, who is on pace to hit 40 homers and draw 100 walks for the fifth consecutive season, is 11-for-40 with 2 HR and 18 BB (.500 OBP) for his new team.

    Ken Griffey Jr. is in the final year of a 9-year/$116.5M contrac