It's July 1, three months into the baseball season. With another three months remaining, it's a popular time for mainstream media members and basement dwellers alike to look back and determine their respective all-star teams, evaluate trade needs and look forward to what we might be able to expect the rest of the way.

In baseball we have grown accustomed to certain start and end points. The "first half" equals pre-All Star Game. So readily available, monthly splits are now popular. Understandably, the beginning of any given season represents the most widely cited starting point. There have been no shortage of great 10-game stretches by ballplayers in 2009, but remember when Emilio Bonifacio was making an MVP push back in mid-April?

One of many gifts that Fangraphs has given baseball enthusiasts is the ability to sort 365-day leaders in any number of statistics. So at the halfway mark of the 2009 season, I am going to take a different approach and put together an All-MLB team of sorts based on players' performances over the last 365 days - more or less a full season's worth of baseball. The only difference is that I will be using start and end points less commonly cited.

I will list my three top players since July 1st, 2008 at each position, toss in a starting rotation and then three relievers. You will notice that I highlight wOBA, as good a measure of offensive output as any. It combined on-base and slugging, but in a way that more accurately reflects their true respective values. Whereas OPS weights on-base and slugging equally, wOBA makes the proper adjustments. Its creator, Tom Tango, describes it this way:

Do we really need another statistic? Yes, we do. Instead of trying to take two statistics (OBP, SLG) and combine and correct their flaws in the hopes of getting one number, we prefer to start from scratch. Furthermore, by recasting the number onto the OBP scale, it makes it much easier for the reader to get a grasp on the number. wOBA is weighted on-base average (we call it an average rather than a percentage). When you look at wOBA numbers throughout the book, just think OBP, and you’ll be fine. In other words, an average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.

Without further ado...

Catcher

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Mauer       .356  .434  .547   .420
McCann      .308  .389  .509   .390
Soto        .263  .351  .441   .344

Notes: Joe Mauer is your clear leader here.

1st Base

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Pujols      .345  .448  .702   .466
Teixeira    .309  .414  .591   .425
Youkilis    .314  .419  .592   .424

Notes: I can see an argument of Miguel Cabrera over Kevin Youkilis here, since Miggy has played 22 more games than Youk since last July 1.

2nd Base

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Utley       .294  .403  .508   .398
Pedroia     .320  .388  .467   .378
Kinsler     .283  .353  .508   .378

Notes: Ben Zobrist didn't play enough games to get in the mix here but in case you had not noticed, he has been ridiculously awesome this season.

3rd Base

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Wright      .331  .417  .537   .413
A-Rod       .267  .389  .535   .398
Longoria    .291  .366  .553   .391

Notes: Chipper Jones misses this list by a hair. Given how much more durable he has been than A-Rod, Longoria and Chipper, the extent to which David Wright (at least at the plate) has separated himself from the MLB third base pack is notable.

Shortstop

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Ramirez     .325  .412  .559   .414
Jeter       .312  .382  .437   .368
Tulowitzki  .287  .367  .471   .354

Notes: There is a real logjam for that third slot. Jose Reyes did not play enough games, while Michael Young, Stephen Drew and Jhonny Peralta are all right there.

Left Field

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Braun       .305  .383  .564   .406
Ibanez      .309  .371  .576   .401
Holliday    .292  .387  .479   .386

Note: Matt Holliday edges Jason Bay and Adam Dunn because the latter two don't play any defense.

Center Field

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Beltran     .314  .400  .523   .399
Hunter      .309  .371  .529   .388
Granderson  .266  .361  .486   .372

Notes: Due to his standout defense, Matt Kemp may deserve a slot on this list. No matter how you cut it, these three plus Kemp have really separated themselves.

Right Field

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Hawpe       .315  .396  .560   .405
Choo        .306  .403  .508   .398
Ethier      .297  .381  .538   .390

Notes: There are a lot of good right fielders in baseball right now. There are a few more players who may have a justified claim to this list.

Designated Hitter

             AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA
Thome       .253  .382  .517   .385
Huff        .305  .359  .529   .373
Lind        .306  .361  .501   .369

Note: There is a pretty underwhelming crop of DH's in MLB these days.

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Starting Pitching

               IP     K/BB   ERA
1. Lincecum   231.1   4.10   2.61
2. Greinke    211.2   5.20   2.68
3. Halladay   233.2   5.91   2.50
4. Sabathia   247.2   3.64   2.58
5. Haren      220.1   6.19   2.98

Notes: I leave Johan Santana off because he lags these guys on his fielding independent numbers and has a high strand rate.

Relievers

             K/9    K/BB    ERA
1. Rivera   10.23  12.50    2.45
2. Broxton  13.13   3.89    2.50
3. Nathan   10.52   4.22    1.38

Notes: Look at Mariano Rivera's K/BB!

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There's my All-365 team. What would yours look like? Who's going to make a strong push over the next 365 days and show up on this thing next July 1? A couple of Justins - Verlander and Upton - come to mind.

As we get set for what is shaping up to be one of the most exciting second halfs in a while, whether looking back or ahead, we definitely welcome your take in the comments section on where things stand at the 2009 midway mark.

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This seems like as good a morning as any to go Shyster-style around a night in the Big Leagues. I had a chance to log a decent amount of Extra Innings time, watching parts of six or seven games and came away with a few impressions that I thought I would share.

On the plane from New York to Chicago yesterday, I had every intention of making my way over to Wrigley for last night's game between the Cubbies and Sox. I would find a single one way or another. After circling over Lake Michigan for a half hour and then touching down to pouring rain, I realized that there might be no game at all.

To see if these showers were just passing - maybe there was some way they would get it in - I went to the Chicago Tribune's mobile sports page to try and get some news on the game, the weather and what the chances the game would take place looked like. When I got there, I stumbled across this piece by Dan McGrath titled One opinion: Sox have better shot at playoffs than Cubs.

McGrath does not take a very analytical approach to the piece. Much of it is off the cuff and its intro makes light of how very underwhelming Chicago baseball has been this season. But nonetheless he does try and mount a case by breaking both teams down, comparing their competition and draws the conclusion that the Pale Hose look like a better bet for October than the Cubs. I disagree pretty strongly with McGrath's position on this one.

Let's just start with some facts. The Cubs are 30-30 and have scored 8 runs more than their opponents thus far in 2009. The White Sox are 30-34 and their opponents have outscored them by 27 runs. The Cubs are 2.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the NL Wild Card race and just 3 back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central. The White Sox are currently 4.5 out in the AL Central and trail the New York Yankees by 6.5 games for the AL Wild Card. While neither team has played the heavyweights from their respective leagues' East divisions (Red Sox and Yanks in Sox case, Phils and Mets for the Cubs), the Cubs have already played four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the class of the National League thus far. By a narrow margin, it would seem the White Sox have had the easier schedule to date and therefore figure to face a tougher slate down the stretch.

So the White Sox have a worse record, worse run differential, larger deficits to make up and need to do so against a tougher schedule. In and of themselves, these factors do not make conclusive the case that the Cubs are the more likely playoff bet but if you are going to say you like the White Sox' chances better, the onus falls on you to argue the position that much more persuasively. McGrath's defense in this respect falls way, way short.

Here is my favorite sentence, symptomatic of the rigor with which McGrath makes his case:

Even with Carlos Quentin ailing, the White Sox have enough guys having decent years that they've been impervious to teamwide slumps despite being shut out nine times.

Did you get that? They're impervious to slumps, but have been shut out nine times this season! Pick your garden variety crappy Major League Baseball offense. The A's? They've been shut out five times. Seattle can't hit, what about them? Again, five times. Sure the Giants must have been shut out a whole bunch? Three times. You get the point. It's hard to gloss over the fact that the Sox have been shut out nine times.

What's interesting is that the two teams have had a similar look thus far in 2009. They both pitch it very well while their respective offenses have slumped badly. This is in part thanks to injuries to star performers. Just as the White Sox badly miss slugger Carlos Quentin, the Cubbies can't get Aramis Ramirez back quickly enough. Did you know that with Mike Fontenot now playing mostly at third with Ramirez out, Aaron Miles is playing second and hitting .200/.240/.252! Maybe he remains on the Cardinals payroll?

The key difference between the Cubs and the Sox is that the former has a much better chance of seeing its offense improve dramatically. Geovany Soto, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley all figure to hit much better the rest of the way than they have to date. Whatever the heck the Cubs decide to do at second base is going to be a lot better from here on out, too. Meanwhile, the Cubs do not have any clear regression candidates. Maybe Ryan Theriot just a bit? For the White Sox to improve on the offensive side, they first need Quentin back and a performing a lot closer to the way he did in 2008 than he was before he went down. Second, you need to place a lot of faith in guys like Chris Getz and Josh Fields and Brian Anderson, something that I find hard to do.

So to sum, the Cubs have a big leg up in the standings, have performed better to date and have better prospects to improve. It's why the various Baseball Prospectus playoff odds reports put their chances of making the playoffs anywhere between 25% and 35% or so. They're far from a slam dunk but they have a real shot. Those same measures have the White Sox around 5% to 10%, far worse than the Cubs' chances for all of the reasons I have described above.

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It's a great time to be a baseball fan. The Draft has historically been something of a mystery because there was very little readily available information on potential draftees. That's just not the case anymore. A lot happened yesterday and chances are, you might be scrambling to figure out just what your favorite team did to beef up its farm system. So today, you're going to want to take in what happened during the first three rounds of the draft, and also follow how the remainder of the day plays out. To that end Marc Hulet, doing yeoman's work as usual on the draft, will be getting readers here up to speed with a fresh post in a little bit but there are plenty of other outlets, too.

MLB.com had a great live draft tracker. They also broadcast the first round from MLB Network's Studio 42. Rich Lederer and Marc Hulet had you soup-to-nuts here at Baseball Analysts last night. Keith Law was all over this thing. So was John Sickels. So were Kevin Goldstein and Baseball Analysts co-founder Bryan Smith. Obviously Baseball America was chiming in with the goods.

Following on Twitter was great fun, too (I am a newbie, still trying to figure things out but having a blast so far - @PatrickSull). With pick number 12, Rany Jazayerli (@Jazayerli) wanted USC shortstop and Scott Boras client Grant Green badly for the Royals. Before they picked, he tweeted the following:

We're going to learn an awful lot about the Kansas City Royals as an organization in the next four minutes.

After they took Aaron Crow, Keith Law (@keithlaw) talked Rany off the ledge, assuring him that Crow was in fact a good selection. Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) was just happy to have so many outlets to follow online so that he could take in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup finals. I was in Jonah's camp - following intently with my laptop open while watching one of the more exciting hockey games I have seen in a while.

Tonight's baseball for me will be a little more old-fashioned. I will be sitting in the grandstand at the game's oldest ballpark watching the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox go head-to-head live. You can't beat a night out at the ballpark but with the amount of quality baseball content out there these days, following the game in 2009 from right in front of your computer is a close second.

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The powerhouse programs in college athletics were not always so. For many years the Florida Gators were the third best football program in their state much like in basketball, the Duke Blue Devils took a back seat to Dean Smith's North Carolina Tar Heels. But one recruit, one coach, one season can help a program turn the corner.

Thanks to the climate in which they find themselves situated, I am pretty sure that the Boston College baseball program will never enter such college athletics rarefied air but that's ok. For now, after a strong showing in 2009, the program is at least on the map and they have Tony Sanchez to thank. The nation's top ranked amateur catcher has helped give BC baseball unprecedented visibility. They compete in the ACC and given the urban, first-rate education they can offer recruits in a northeast corridor city, maybe they are here to stay.

Sanchez hit .346/.443/.614 this season and watched his professional stock skyrocket. A Miami product who was overlooked as a high school player, he proved the top southeast programs that would not give him a look wrong throughout his collegiate athletic career. On the cusp of professional baseball riches, he set aside a little time on Tuesday night to speak with me about his time at BC, playing 25 innings of baseball and his general outlook as he sets his sites on the next phase of his baseball life.

Patrick: What are you up to these days?

Tony: Well a lot of guys are taking time off but I am not. I need to get prepared. I just got back from a workout with one of my summer ball teammates - took a BP with the wood bat. I fly to Kansas City tomorrow to work out for the Royals. After that I come back to Miami to hang out with family and friends and wait for next Tuesday.

Patrick: What do you like most and what do you like least about this time in your life? I imagine it's a period of great excitement and anticipation but at the same time great uncertainty. How are you feeling?

Tony: Everything is so surreal right now. I am on cloud 9 coming off a good showing for BC baseball in Texas, playing in a game like that in that environment and now with the draft right around the corner...it's surreal. For much of the year my advisers would not tell me what they were hearing from teams around the league - they didn't want me to get a case of draftitis. But now that the season is over and they are opening up and filling me in on what they're hearing and I have to say, it's exciting.

As for the downside, I will miss my BC baseball teammates. I don't like being away from them and I don't like that I won't have the chance to play with them any longer as I head into the Minor Leagues.

Patrick: What made you choose Boston College?

Tony: They were the only school that gave me a shot. Playing in Florida, there is just so much talent down there that it is easy to be overlooked. But when BC called, the opportunity to play in that conference and make an impact immediately. When I visited the school, I fell in love with it.

Patrick: 25 Innings - what was that like?

Tony: First of all, playing in that atmosphere against the #1 team in the country...with a crowd of 7,000 genuine college baseball fans who know the game, it was unbelievable. They were obviously pulling for their hometown team but as the game wore on, they seemed to fall in love with us, too. It was just unbelievable to be a part of.

Patrick: I read your interview with David Laurila at Baseball Prospectus and what struck me is that you definitely are saying all the right things. "My defense comes first, offense is a bonus." Yadier Molina being your favorite player, etc. But you have to know somewhere in the back of your mind that, as long as your defense is steady, pounding the baseball is your ticket to the Big Leagues.

Tony: Definitely. Being a catcher, hitting is your ticket. That's how you skyrocket through the Minors. I will still say that hitting takes a backseat to my defense but I know what I have to do in order to advance.

Patrick: Speaking of hitting, when you look at your college numbers what clearly stands out is that your power numbers have improved dramatically each year. You slugged .425 freshman year, then .517 and finally .614 this past season. What do you attribute that to?

Tony: Hard work. I'm a grinder, man. I have worked out really hard in the Bubble in the off-season, with my coaches and trainers at BC and with the wood bat in the summertime. It has all added up over time to help me become the hitter I now am.

Patrick: What's your biggest developmental opportunity. In what area of the game will you need to improve quickly in order to succeed at the next level?

Tony: Pitch calling. I am looking forward to showing up for Rookie ball and getting in the bullpen with my pitchers, learning their pitches and what their comfortable with, reviewing film with coaches and learning players' patterns.

Patrick: Another level of baseball sophistication?

Tony: That's right, and I am going to have to learn quickly how to mentally adapt my game.

Patrick: Keith Law of ESPN.com has you going 4th overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates in light of a recent visit Pirates management made to Boston. Care to talk about that at all?

Tony: Pittsburgh did come meet. We had a great dinner, they were easy guys to talk to and I really felt that there was a strong connection. I would love to be a Pirate. But as you well know, nobody knows what's going to happen on Draft Day.

Patrick: Ok, let me ask you about some of the guys you've played with and against. Let me start with two guys that graduated from my alma mater, The Roxbury Latin School. Tell me about Chris Kowalski and John Spatola.

Tony: I have lived with Chris for three years and he is one of my best friends in the world. We will be together until we die. We have spent the very best times in our lives together.

John is one of the smartest kids I know. He's got a quick wit, he's a great teammate and he's just an all-around great guy.

Patrick: Ok, now for some other guys around the ACC. I have to start with Dustin Ackley.

Tony: He's a freak. Here is how I explain it. You are better off pitching to him 0-0 than you are 0-2. Because at 0-2 it seems like he's still gonna crush it while 0-0 at least there's a chance he will take the pitch.

Patrick: That's funny, I know there's a little hyperbole in there but point taken. I have never heard that description.

Tony: He's lethal, and the thing is you can't really pitch around him because Kyle Seager is up next. It's "pick your poison" with those guys.

Patrick: How about another Tar Heel, Alex White?

Tony: You're talking about one of the best pitchers in college baseball. He kept it down almost all game against us but elevated when he wanted to, he moved the ball around and kept us off balance. He's just a great pitcher.

Patrick: What are your impressions of Miami shortstop Ryan Jackson?

Tony: I have been watching him since we were 12 and I always knew he was going to be special. Guys like us don't necessarily impress everyone - like me, he has his critics. But he has that intangible that I think will help him become a Big League shortstop. Travel ball, high school ball and most recently in college I have watched him and he has it. His glove alone could probably make him a Big Leaguers and if he hits, sky's the limit.

Patrick: Talk about catching Mike Belfiore (ranked #91 in draft by Law).

Tony: Catching Mike is probably one of the easier jobs I had to do at BC. He's one of those guys that you know he's gonna put the ball whereever you want it and it's going to be firm but easy to receive. He has such good composure on the mound that even if he's got men on base, you know he's going to get out of the inning unscathed because he just has that confidence that it takes to be a dominant pitcher. I really enjoyed catching Belf but he and I are still hoping that we might have a chance to work together again. Right now, we're banking on getting drafted by the same team, which would be unbelievable.

Patrick: Ok thanks a lot, Tony, and best of luck to you on draft day and beyond.

Tony: You got it, man. Thank you.

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I asked another standout Boston College athlete, my friend Brooks Orpik's younger brother Andrew Orpik, whether or not he had seen Sanchez around the weight room and if he could observe anything about his work ethic. Andrew just finished up his college hockey career and is now a member of the Buffalo Sabres organization. Here he is on Sanchez:

All sports share a weight room at BC except football, so I saw (Tony) in there a lot. He was always noticeable because for one he was one of the stronger kids in the weight room and he would be in there more than just when he had to be, which doesn't surprise me when seeing how good of a player he is.

If teams think that Sanchez has the skill to make it as a big league catcher, they should enter draft day knowing that the kid will do everything he can to maximize his abilities. His work ethic has been his meal ticket to date, and I don't see any reason why that should change when he becomes a professional ballplayer. He's talented and hungry, and about to make one organization's farm system a whole lot stronger.

Thanks to the Boston College Sports Information Department for the first photo and all of their help. The second photo is courtesy of the Cape Cod Baseball League.

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In looking into the San Diego Padres recent 10-game win streak, snapped last night in Arizona, I found wisdom where I would not ordinarily think to seek it. Save some insidery commentary about the sort of effect Petco has on visiting hitters that didn't seem to make a whole lot of sense, John Kruk was spot on in his analysis of San Diego's recent winning ways and what the implications are for the rest of the season:

People might want to make a big deal about the San Diego Padres winning 10 consecutive games, but I don't think it's that great a story yet. Their 9-7 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday snapped an 11-game road losing streak, and was only the fourth time this month they had scored six or more runs.

The Padres are beset with offensive issues much like their NL West rivals, the San Francisco Giants. The Padres are anchored by an impressive 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation in Chris Young and Jake Peavy, while the back end is held down by closer Heath Bell. All they really have on offense is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has quietly become one of baseball's best players.

That sounds about right. They cannot win on the road, they have one guy on the team who can hit and their starting pitching cannot muster any consistency. In Heath Bell, Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujica they seem to have found a core of reliable arms to build around in the bullpen but beyond their relief pitching, there are no discernible strengths on this club.

As good as he can be, Jake Peavy still has not regained his once dominant form. He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 6 of his starts in 2009. Compare that to his Cy Young campaign of 2007 when he yielded 3 or more earned runs just 10 times all season long. His peripherals look sound and he has been excellent in May, however. He is still a bona fide, top of the rotation hurler but let's see how long he remains in San Diego.

As for the rest of the rotation, well, have a look for yourself.

              IP    H  BB   K   K/9  K/BB  ERA
SP ex Peavy  197.1 191 90  137  6.3  1.5   4.98

I don't need to tell readers here that a 4.98 ERA while pitching half of your games at Petco Park is not very good. And on the offensive side, it's a similar story. They are hitting .234/.314/.389 despite featuring the League's leading home run hitter. Were one to back out Gonzalez's contributions this season then you would be looking at a run producing attack on par with their banjo hitting neighbors up the coast, the San Francisco Giants.

Nonetheless the Padres find themselves just four games back in the Wild Card race. I don't think there's much reason for hope in San Diego, which is something the Arizona Diamondbacks and their fans had in spades coming into the 2009 season. 26 games into the season their ace is hurt, they have yielded 28 more runs than they have scored and they're 6 games under .500. Players in their prime the D-Backs need to produce continue fall short of expectations, and boy was the Eric Byrnes contract extension a mistake.

          AVG   OBP   SLG
Tracy    .189  .252  .342
Drew     .190  .280  .333
Young    .177  .219  .320
Byrnes   .208  .257  .384

Still, as bleak as things seem I think there may still be hope for the Snakes. 21 year-old Justin Upton, hitting .325/.400/.617, has broken out. Same goes for the electric Max Scherzer, who had his best outing of the season last night. His ERA is down to 3.38 and he is striking out over a batter an inning. With Dan Haren once again pitching lights out, Brandon Webb coming back at the end of June and Doug Davis and Jon Garland playing their typical innings-eater roles, this is a rotation that can work.

But the offense has to come around, and there is good reason to think that it can. At Fangraphs, Dan Szymborski has published his ZIPS projections for the rest of the season, and here is how the quartet listed above looks according to his numbers:

          AVG   OBP   SLG
Tracy    .257  .315  .414
Drew     .266  .323  .439
Young    .231  .304  .454
Byrnes   .254  .313  .425

They're not lighting the world on fire, but they look a heck of a lot better than how they have fared thus far in 2009. Along with the health of Webb, it is the play of these four position players that will determine the fate of the 2009 Diamondbacks.

As noted at the top, the Diamondbacks ended the Padres 10-game winning streak last night in Phoenix. Says here that it was the start of a trend for both clubs.

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Last night the Boston Red Sox defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 to pull within 2.5 games of the division leaders from north of the border. The story of the game was the return to the lineup of one David Ortiz, who had sat out the entire Red Sox series in Seattle over the weekend. The Boston faithful stood and cheered wildly in support of Big Papi each time he came to the dish. Chants of "Papi" and standing ovations, however, couldn't seem to pull the big slugger out of his slump (sleepwalk? death march?).

He was 0-3 with two strikeouts and two men left on base. Ortiz is now batting .203/.317/.293. His wOBA of .279 trails all but Ty Wigginton among American League Designated Hitters. While it would be nice to chalk Papi's problems to a mere slump, something that will work itself out - it's only May 20 after all - it's becoming difficult to imagine a return to form for Ortiz. We saw chinks in the armor last post-season when Ortiz, one of the most celebrated clutch performers in baseball history, managed to hit just .186. His bat has been slower, his approach clueless for some time now.

Despite this, Boston finds itself just four games out of the best record in all of Major League Baseball. All the while, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have battled injuries, Jed Lowrie has been out for almost the entire season and Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have posted ERA+ figures of 85 and 77, respectively. Brad Penny has been worse than both of them. Boston's starting pitching ERA is 5.76, tied with Baltimore for very worst in the American League.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, there is reason to believe things will get better on the pitching front. If you're to believe Fielding Independent statistics, Lester and Beckett have been among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. Both hurlers' peripherals look solid. Moreover, Youkilis returns to the Boston lineup tonight and Matsuzaka makes his first start since April 15th on Friday night. All around their Designated Hitter, things are looking up for Boston.

Working in their favor, it's not like the Red Sox have no recourse for dealing with their little Papi problem. Their pitching depth is the envy of Major League Baseball. That so many quality pitchers sit in the organization, many without prominent or even Big League roles, borders on absurdity. This is particularly so in the presence of a gaping hole at DH. Let's run through Boston's pitching depth.

How would this starting rotation look?

                  IP    H   BB  SO  ERA
Masterson        41.1  45   14  35  4.57
Penny            36.1  45   16  20  6.69
Buchholz (AAA)   39.1  23   12  42  1.60
Bowden (AAA)     42.0  19   16  28  0.86
Tazawa (AA)      43.1  38   13  42  3.12

It might not light the world on fire, but it would probably stand up favorably to how Boston's starting pitching unit has fared to date (remember the 5.76 ERA), a unit good enough to stake the Red Sox to a 23-16 record. This rotation, the one that might improve upon the 23-16 team's pitching to date, would leave Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and John Smoltz out of the mix. Assuming Smoltz's rehab goes as planned (his rehab clock will be set to expire June 19), Boston would have ten quite legitimate Major League starters.

The depth is even more ridiculous in the bullpen. Prior to the season, in Fort Myers, Bill James told me that the Red Sox had the best bullpen on paper that he had ever seen. He was also quick to caveat that the best bullpen on paper means next to nothing given the unpredictability that comes with forecasting 50-80 innings worth of pitching. Still, James's commentary has proven prescient. Even with Masterson sliding into the rotation, Boston's 3.00 bullpen ERA trails only Kansas City's in the American League.

Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Takashi Saito and Daniel Bard are all worthy of pitching high leverage situations right now. And remember, with Clay Buchholz dealing in Pawtucket, Dice-K coming back and Smoltz beginning his rehab, that means there will be another relief arm or two whom Terry Francona can feel comfortable using in a big spot. At the very least, you can add Justin Masterson to that mix. Assuming good health, here is what the Boston pitching staff will probably look like one month from now:

Starters

Beckett
Lester
Matsuzaka
Wakefield
Smoltz

Relievers

Papelbon
Okajima
Ramirez
Masterson
Delcarmen
Saito
Bard

This leaves out Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Penny. Junichi Tazawa, too, if you want to accept the premise that it is likely that he is ready for Major League action. Still, look at that list. While depth is desirable given the unpredictable nature of pitcher health and effectiveness, you simply do not need your bottom three relievers to be as effective as Boston's will be - particularly with three or four pitchers left off the roster who would be of great use to other Big League clubs.

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All of this brings me back to Ortiz. Smoltz's rehab expiration of a month or so from now offers the Red Sox a nice timetable to evaluate their options. If Smoltz looks strong, they have lots of options. If Brad Penny improves, they have even more. If Smoltz has a setback, Penny continues to struggle and say, Beckett and/or Dice-K have a DL stint, that pitching depth may need to be tapped. And finally, maybe there is some way Ortiz regains his stroke. Then there is less urgency to look to do a deal.

But let's assume that things go reasonably smoothly for Smoltz and that he joins the rotation. Let's also assume that Buchholz and Bowden continue to pitch like MLB contributors and that the bullpen effectiveness keeps up from top to bottom. And finally, we'll assume that Ortiz is, as so many of us suspect he may be, finis. Then it's time for the Red Sox to look around. What follows are some of their potential options.

Sports Radio Caller Pipe Dreams?

David Wright

Would the Mets consider a deal of Mike Lowell, Buchholz, Masterson and Delcarmen for Wright? Maybe not, but the third baseman seems to be under-appreciated in the Big Apple at times and New York could use some young arms to help in the bullpen and back of the rotation.

Hanley Ramirez or Joe Mauer

I understand that you might have to empty your farm system for either of these two players. But both guys just might be worth it. I can't imagine a package Florida or Minnesota could ask that I would not listen to if you put me in charge of the Red Sox. The only problem is that neither team may listen long enough to even entertain a deal.

Proven Producers on Teams Going Nowhere

Matt Holliday

After a slow start, he has been excellent in May and Oakland appears to be headed for another disappointing season. He is a free agent at year's end, so Billy Beane's ask might be manageable.

Lance Berkman

Berkman is signed through 2010 (with a '11 club option and a $2M club buyout) but given that Houston is in last place and sports what is arguably the league's worst farm system, Drayton McLane and Ed Wade would be wise to consider a fire sale sooner rather than later. Did I mention Russ Ortiz takes a regular turn in their rotation.

A Good Ol' Value for Value Baseball Deal

Brandon Wood

Mike Scioscia sure doesn't seem to value him the way the Red Sox might. I wonder what the Angels would want in return for him? Seems to me the Red Sox have the arms to get something done.

Chris Iannetta

Colorado still seems to want Yorvit Torrealba getting innings, which makes me think that the right package could net Boston the young slugging catcher. Boston could DH Iannetta for a year, maybe two depending on what happens with Jason Varitek, and then slide him behind the dish longer term.

Less Pricey, Stop Gap Solutions

Jermaine Dye or Jim Thome

The White Sox seem down and out but Dye and Thome continue to produce. Both would come with favorable contract situations, too.

Nelson Cruz

He has struggled in May and of all people, Andruw Jones is coming on strong and seems to be taking playing time away from him in Texas. Moreover, we all know how much Nolan Ryan would like to beef up his pitching arsenal.

Jack Cust

Oakland may not wish to part with the cost-controlled, steady producer but for the right package, how long can you hold the line for a one-tool player like Cust?

Nick Johnson

Don't laugh, the Nationals first baseman that could never stay healthy has already played 38 games this year, as many as he played all of last season. His .438 on-base would look great in the Boston line-up and getting him off the field and into the DH role would only increase his chances of staying healthy. He's in the final year of a regrettable Nationals contract and Washington is going nowhere. He has to be there for the taking.

**********

Boston doesn't have to do a deal, of course. Dozens of players within the organization would represent an upgrade over Ortiz's production if slotted into the DH role and as I have mentioned numerous times, the Red Sox are obviously still a good team despite their gaping hole in the middle of the batting order. I also respect the political considerations that factor into such a deal. But given their pitching surplus and obvious upgrade opportunity, why not go for it? Their financial advantages and proven drafting acumen should allow Boston to undergo whatever restocking efforts a bigtime deal would necessitate, anyway.

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It's early, but it seems that fans and media alike of many teams are making post-season plans or pressing the panic button far too early. Baseball being a game that needs to play out over the long haul, it's best to peel back the onion just a little bit to identify why a team is winning or losing. Are the good teams lucky on balls in play? Getting ridiculous performances from players ready to plummet back to earth? Are the bad teams failing because they are stranding too many runners or just plain slumping? Maybe they're showing their true colors?

Last week I broke down the last place teams to try and identify who might be ready to turn things around.

These games count, so I do not want to downplay the impact of a tough start. Without a doubt, each of these teams has dug themselves a hole. But looking at the numbers alone, I think Boston and Cleveland fans should hold off on panicking just yet. Meanwhile, the Rangers have to be happy with the way they have hit the ball so far and it appears that given their strand rate, the run prevention figures to improve.

In the National League, all three last place teams will see their pitching improve, while Houston is going to get a big jump offensively when they start hitting in the clutch and Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee come around.

Combined, Boston, Cleveland, Texas and Houston are 17-7 since I posted that piece. This week I will take a little different format but look at the first place teams to identify whose play is sustainable and whose is not. Dayn Perry has done a similar piece looking at teams and individuals alike over at Fox Sports.

AL East

The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 10-4 start thanks to a well-rounded club whose OPS+ and ERA+ of 118 and 124 respectively are both 3rd in the American League. They are also sporting the league's most impressive Defensive Efficiency Rating.

Five players with an OPS north of .900 are pacing Toronto's offensive attack. While it would be easy to say that they will all fall back to earth, I am not so sure. I am not going to contend that Lyle Overbay finishes the year hitting .330 or that Aaron Hill slugs better than .600. And Marco Scutaro is hitting .281/.417/.561. Will he finish the year there? I wouldn't bet on it.

But there are some mitigating factors that should give Jays fans hope. For instance, is it so inconceivable that Overbay would have a big bounce-back year? He's getting up there but still just 32, and he did hit .312/.372/.508 in his first season with Toronto in 2006. He was injured in 2007 and struggled to regain his form last season. Maybe he's all the way back in 2009. Speaking of injuries, Hill is just 27 years old and missed much of last season. He could simply be building off of his strong 2007. Scutaro has never been much of a hitter but look at that disparity between his batting average and on-base. That suggests to me that he is up at the plate with a better approach and may be in for a career year.

The other two members of the Blue Jays tearing it up early are Travis Snider and Adam Lind. 21 and 25 respectively and both loaded with talent, I am not ready to dismiss either of their early performances. This group will fall back some - maybe a lot - but I still believe it constitutes a solid offensive core. Moreover, Scott Rolen appears resurgent while Alex Rios and Vernon Wells have not hit yet.

On the pitching side, Roy Halladay is not slowing down. David Purcey and Jesse Litsch have gotten off to slow starts but Ricky Romero looks terrific. Where their run prevention will settle in I am not sure but there seems to be enough guys under-performing not to write this unit off.

Toronto is in the best division in baseball - indeed one of the very best in recent memory. There is no telling at this point where they will finish up. What appears evident at this point, however, was that I was just terribly wrong in my AL East preview. I thought they would be awful and many Jays fans called me out - in comments and over email. It looks like they're right.

AL Central

It seems a little silly to dig in too much on the AL Central, with three teams atop the division at 7-6, Minnesota at 7-7 (without Joe Mauer) and Cleveland, the consensus favorite at 5-9 but 4-2 in their last six. This is truly anybody's division. Let's look at the three teams tied atop the division.

For Kansas City, Zack Greinke is off to an unbelievable start while Gil Meche and Kyle Davies have been excellent as well. They will have to figure out the back end of the rotation to stay in it for the long haul but they are definitely solid at the front end. In the bullpen, the sooner Trey Hillman abandons Kyle Farnsworth in high-leverage situations, the better for the Royals. Offensively, they're performing slightly below average, just as you might have expected them to.

The White Sox are riding three guys offensively. Carlos Quentin is following up a breakout 2008 with another stellar year thus far. Mainstays Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are both off to excellent starts. Whatever fallback you might expect from these players should be softened by increased production from Alexei Ramirez (.159/.213/.182) and Jim Thome (.304 on-base). On the pitching side, I am not sure I buy Bartolo Colon's start (3.86 ERA) but John Danks once again looks terrific. Jose Contreras looks done to me.

Detroit's offense looks to me like it is performing just a smidge below expectations. Yes, Miguel Cabrera is off to a ridiculous start and there is absolutely no way Brandon Inge does not come back to earth. But look at all of the other good players falling short of expectations in that lineup. That outfield will start to hit before long. It's Detroit's pitching that is all of a sudden awfully intriguing. With three youngsters simultaneously stepping in and stepping up, when they get Jeremy Bonderman back, this could be one of the best starting fives in the American League. Armando Galarraga and Edwin Jackson have been terrific, and boy does Rick Porcello have some talent. Justin Verlander is just fine and Bonderman is rumored to be coming along.

AL West

The Seattle Mariners are currently 9-5 with a +12 run differential; this despite a .296 wOBA and a 76 ERA+. They haven't hit at all, and I am not sure they ever will this year. But one thing we know, and we knew all along, is that they would be able to catch the ball. What I wasn't sure we knew was just how much of a measurable impact defense would have. This is what I wrote in our AL West preview:

The Mariners will be a real case study in how much we know about defense metrics. Consensus seems to be that Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva in particular stand to improve. Let's see how it plays out.

A resurgent Washburn, a healthy Erik Bedard and a lights-out defense that sports the best UZR in the game right now all signify to me that these M's might have some staying power. Their 2.94 team ERA may be unsustainable, but their offense will tick up. Besides, that's a division for the taking they're competing in.

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I will be back this weekend with a look at the National League division leaders.

Thanks to Fangraphs for many of the more in-depth statistics.

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We are over a week into the season and there are some promising teams off to crummy starts, as well as some bad teams who have started off the way many expected they would. Today we will have a look at the six last place teams and assess whether there is legitimate cause for long term concern or some bright spots to which fans might cling. We will seek to identify the ominous signs and highlight any glimmers of hope for these six clubs.

For starters, let's compare win-loss records to Pythagorean records to try and identify major disparities. It's conceivable that teams are hitting, pitching and fielding well but not yet closing out wins.

                 W-L         Pythag W-L
Boston           2-6            3-5
Cleveland        1-7            2-6
Texas            3-5            4-4
Washington       0-7            2-5
Houston          1-6            1-6
San Francisco    2-5            2-5

Nope, it does not appear that any team has been particularly unlucky. According to runs scored and runs allowed, they are all pretty much in line with their records. The Rangers have been the best of this bunch, allowing just four more runs than they have scored. So let's run some more in-depth diagnostics to see if we can identify anything that might stand out.

                RS  Rank   OPS  Rank      
Boston          29   26   .708   22   
Cleveland       38   13   .768   13
Texas           52    2   .857    3     
Washington      34   21   .742   20
Houston         16   30   .662   29 
San Francisco   27   29   .670   27 

               RA  Rank  OPSa  Rank  UZR Rank
Boston         43   19   .838   23      11
Cleveland      64   30   .962   29      29
Texas          56   29   .864   25       9
Washington     54   28   .969   30      25
Houston        43   19   .900   27      22
San Francisco  41   16   .866   26      10     

Ok, now we start to get into it. Last season, the San Diego Padres plated the fewest runs in Major League Baseball with 637. Currently Houston is on pace for 370 runs, while San Francisco and Boston are on pace for 625 and 588, respectively. Boston scored 845 last season. You get the point. There are some teams on this list who are absolutely going to improve offensively.

On the pitching side, did you know that Cleveland Indians starters are currently sporting a 10.91 ERA? Anthony Reyes leads their starters with a 6.00 mark. The very highest OPS allowed last season was .817 by the Texas Rangers. However awful you think Washington's run prevention is, they will improve off of their .969 OPS allowed mark. The same goes for every other team on that list.

Now let's look at some balls-in-play data.

Batting
               BABIP  Rank  LD%   Rank
Boston         .261    26   19.4   11
Cleveland      .306    13   21.3    5
Texas          .291    19   18.8   15 
Washington     .349     1   22.9    3
Houston        .257    29   17.3   21
San Francisco  .318     9   19.5   10

Pitching
                BABIP  Rank  LD%   Rank      
Boston          .322     7   17.8   20     
Cleveland       .353     1   20.6    5
Texas           .329     6   22.8    1(t)
Washington      .350     2   22.1    4
Houston         .343     3   20.0   11
San Francisco   .331     5   18.3   17

A couple things stand out to me here. First, on both the hitting and pitching side for the Red Sox, there is considerable dislocation between their balls in play average and their line drive percentage. If a team ranks 11th in line drive percentage, that same team should be reaching base at a pretty good clip when making contact. And yet, the Red Sox find themselves 26th in the league at this point on batting average on balls in play. Similarly, their pitchers are doing a good job preventing opposing hitters from making square contact but they don't have results to show for it. Their .322 balls in play average allowed is the seventh highest in baseball. As time goes on, this should work itself out. Boston fans should take heart in this. Applying the same principles, Cleveland's hitting and San Francisco's pitching also figure to improve.

The next thing that stands out to me is that Washington is hitting the cover off the ball without a win to show for it. Now, they also rank second in Major League Baseball in strikeouts but still. You would think the way they are hitting the ball might translate into more runs.

Finally, let's look at some situational numbers. The first number is OPS with runners in scoring position while the second shows what percentage of runners each team strands to end an inning. It's the "left on base" percentage. You can also see where each team ranks in MLB for the respective figures. I am posting these numbers because they can influence results but not necessarily reflect a team's true quality.

               RISP OPS  Rank   LOB%  Rank
Boston           .626     27    72.8   13  
Cleveland        .642     25    56.3   30
Texas            .949      5    64.3   25 
Washington       .801     15    59.2   29
Houston          .490     30    69.7   20    
San Francisco    .707     20    67.9   23

Take heart, Tribe fans. Your team will start to hit better in the clutch and a runner reaching first base will cease to equate to an automatic run. "How does a team score just 16 runs in a seven game stretch?" you ask. Well how about a .490 OPS with men in scoring position. Houston may not be a world class offensive club, but they'll come around.

These games count, so I do not want to downplay the impact of a tough start. Without a doubt, each of these teams has dug themselves a hole. But looking at the numbers alone, I think Boston and Cleveland fans should hold off on panicking just yet. Meanwhile, the Rangers have to be happy with the way they have hit the ball so far and it appears that given their strand rate, the run prevention figures to improve.

In the National League, all three last place teams will see their pitching improve, while Houston is going to get a big jump offensively when they start hitting in the clutch and Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee come around. For Nationals fans looking for hope, it may be a biased perspective but I would nonetheless point you to this piece by Manny Acta.

Next week I will take a look at the teams with the best records to see who has staying power and who might be in for a drop-off.

Thanks to Fangraphs for many of the more in-depth statistics.

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On the golf course Sunday for our first round of the year outside my hometown of Boston, one of my pals, an avid Sox fan but one who does not follow the rest of the league closely, was incredulous that Atlanta - once the Mecca of MLB starting pitching - would be sending Derek Lowe to the hill to start their season.

"He's a very legitimate MLB ace," I replied. For once I looked pretty smart just a few hours later, as Lowe went out and shut down the defending World Series champs. He pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and no walks along the way.

My friend's view on Lowe represents the view of many in the Boston area. He has been marginalized over the years for a number of reasons. For one, popular ESPN columnist Bill Simmons made famous "the Derek Lowe face" because he had the nerve to blow a few saves throughout the course of the 2001 season. Here is Simmons on Lowe from back in '01:

In Lowe's case, you spend the ninth inning rooting for things to go smoothly for him ... and then something happens (a single or a walk), and you start searching for signs that he's OK, and he is OK, but maybe something else happens (a stolen base, a walk) and then ... BOOM!

He makes the face.

My buddy J-Bug calls it The Derek Lowe Face...

The Derek Lowe Face is a little different. It's a frozen expression like The Aikman Face, only it's more anguished and tortured (imagine someone taking a dump and suddenly realizing that there's no toilet paper in the bathroom). And as soon as Lowe starts making that face, the umpires should halt the game and award it to whomever the Red Sox are playing. I have to admit, I'm haunted by The Derek Lowe Face.

I spend every one of his appearances saying to the TV, "Don't make it, don't make the face, stay cool, come on, stay with us, hang tough, kiddo." It never ends.

(Note to the Red Sox: I'd like to order the Ugueth Urbina please? And hold the mayo.)

Moreover, Lowe is known for his off-field partying and womanizing, which serves to hamper his image as a professional. His crotch-chop after striking out Terrence Long with the bases loaded and two outs in the final frame of Game 5 of the 2003 ALDS in Oakland did not help on this front, either. He's tall, he's gangling and his uniform does not seem to fit him very well. He does not strike many batters out. In his final year in Boston, he had the worst year of his career.

Add it all up you have a player whose terrific record of achievement manages to go overlooked. Even after winning all three post-season clinching games for the Red Sox in 2004, Boston was happy to see Lowe head west to Los Angeles after the season. Generally critical of their team's moves, Red Sox fans, although appreciative of Lowe's work over the years, did not question their team's decision to let Lowe walk. When he signed with the Atlanta Braves this past off-season, Deadspin, a site I happen to enjoy and one that I would consider to be a decent gauge for how sports fans think about various players, teams and issues, ran the following headline:

How Does A 14-11 Record Get You $60 Million? Here's How

Well, as readers of this site probably already know, Lowe has had a magnificent Major League Baseball career and does not appear to be slowing down. How did that four-year deal with the Dodgers work out - a deal the Red Sox were happy not to consider so that they could go out and get Matt Clement?

               IP   K/BB   WHIP  ERA+
2005-2008     850   2.63   1.23  122

Over the course of Lowe's Dodgers deal, 2005 through 2008, 20 other players notched 800 innings. Among them, Lowe ranks tenth in ERA+.

               IP     ERA+
Santana       918.2   152
Halladay      833     144
Webb          927     143
Oswalt        883     137
Sabathia      883.1   136
Lackey        814     130
Peavy         802.1   128
Zambrano      842.1   125
Haren         878.2   123
Lowe          850     122

I wonder how many would consider Lowe to be in the company of the other names on that list. I would say the Dodgers received great return on their investment in Lowe.

Before arriving in Los Angeles, Lowe was already an accomplished player. In 278 career relief appearances, Lowe has a 2.95 ERA. In 1999 he pitched 109 innings in relief, notching a 2.63 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The following season he tied for the AL lead with 42 saves. 2001 saw the birth of "the Derek Lowe face" - he struggled a bit - but bounced back in a big way in 2002, forming one of the best 1-2 combo's in recent memory with Pedro Martinez.

2002

           IP   K/BB  WHIP  ERA+
Lowe     219.2  2.65  0.98  177 
Pedro    199.1  5.98  0.92  202

Barry Zito won the Cy Young Award that year in a classic awards vote that ignored park effects while over-emphasizing wins (Zito was 23-5). Pedro and Lowe finished second and third, respectively. In 2003 and 2004, Lowe slipped but was still a fairly dependable option every fifth day. As much as he struggled by his standards in 2004, Lowe still made 33 starts for a team that won the World Series. He was fantastic in the post-season.

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Since Lowe became a full-time starter in 2002, of all pitchers with at least 1,100 innings pitched, he ranks 9th in innings and 13th in ERA+. Over the last 25 seasons, of all pitchers to have notched at least 1,700 innings, Lowe ranks 14th in ERA+. Barring an unrealistically spectacular close to his career, Lowe's numbers will never rise to a level that garners him Hall of Fame consideration. He will end up more Jimmy Key, Kevin Appier or Bret Saberhagen than Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown or Mike Mussina. But nonetheless he has comfortably reached that next level down - the Hall of Very Good some call it - and as his record comes more into focus and some of his ancillary traits less so, time figures to treat Lowe's legacy well.

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Over dinner in Fort Myers back in early March, a number of us were kicking around who the surprise teams were. Minnesota was mine; I liked their 1-through-5 starting pitching depth and thought that any offense anchored by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau would be good enough. This was before Mauer was hurt, of course.

One Red Sox front office member's team was the Florida Marlins. Hanley Ramirez may be the best player in baseball, after all, and the roster is filled with young, hungry players all seemingly ready to come into their own around the same time. They're loaded with live arms, speedsters and power hitters, features that were all on display yesterday.

The Fish pounded the Washington Nationals 12-6 in most impressive fashion. Ricky Nolasco went six innings and the Marlins bullpen finished the final three frames. They combined for nine strikeouts, six hits and most importantly for a Florida staff that can get a little wild, no walks. Ramirez hit his first career grand slam. Jeremy Hermida and Jorge Cantu added home runs of their own.

Also homering was Emilio Bonifacio. His was of the inside-the-park variety. In his first game with the Marlins after coming over from their Opening Day opponent - the poor Nationals - Bonifacio had a debut for the ages. He hit a thrilling inside-the-park home run, added three singles, three stolen bases and four runs scored.

One never wants to put too much stock in just one day but in looking for how to describe this Florida club after one game, I thought Cody Ross did a pretty nice job describing their appeal. He said:

''If I'm a fan and this was one of the few games I've ever seen, I'd definitely want to come back and watch the Marlins play again.''

Agreed, Cody.

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For two seasons running now, I have decided to run a piece in this space putting myself out there with picks on Over/Under MLB team win totals. The 2009 over/unders are out and the season gets underway tonight, so let's give it another go. Here is how I introduced 2007's predictions.

Many would argue that the crux of Sabermetrics is that you can predict a team's win total by analyzing a team's ability to score and prevent runs. Virtually all other research aimed at determining what contributes to a baseball club's winning efforts, on both an individual and team-wide level, is derived from this finding. Sabermetric projection mechanisms with these principles at their core offer a neat opportunity for the enterprising individual to take advantage of Vegas over/under win totals.

Now, projections are never fool-proof and are often downright inaccurate. Just ask Tigers fans from last season [2006]. But I happen to believe that the astute fan has the opportunity to stick one to Vegas on these (hey, it makes up for football season). So without further ado, let me try my hand at each MLB team. I will offer up my prediction (over or under) and then briefly account for why I believe the arbitrage opportunity exists. And yeah, I will be on the record here so just as I stated back on Valentine's Day, feel free to check back and ridicule me if it turns out I am just dead wrong on a lot of these.

Last season I had a rough year (slightly below .500) but I went 21-9 in 2007. Onto my picks...

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National League

Arizona - Over 86 (-115) Under 86 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Barring 200 innings from Max Scherzer and bigtime jump seasons from two of Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Conor Jackson and Justin Upton, the back end of the rotation and lineup are just not good enough to allow Arizona to contend.

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Atlanta - Over 84.5 (-115) Under 84.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much but I will take the over. By adding Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami, the Braves have dramatically bolstered their starting pitching. Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur figure to improve and whatever you think of the man, Garret Anderson figures to imorove upon Gregor Blanco.

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Chicago Cubs - Over 92.5 (-115) Under 92.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

I like the over here because they won 97 last year and with all due respect to Kerry Wood, the Cubbies managed more-or-less a "pure addition" off-season. They should get an additional 100 innings from Rich Harden in 2009 and they managed to add Milton Bradley, the American League's finest hitter from 2008.

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Cincinnati - Over 78.5 (-115) Under 78.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

The bull case for this offense rests on Brandon Phillips bounce-back, big steps forward from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto and a return to form for starters Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Any two or three of these things seem probable to me but for the Reds to be a .500-type team, they need to fire on all cylinders. I don't see it happening.

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Colorado - Over 76.5 (-115) Under 76.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

They won 74 games last year and have lost Matt Holliday and Jeff Francis off of last year's team. Sure, there will be some guys bouncing back from injuries and I am as excited as anyone to see Chris Iannetta get some regular hacks but no. Not with this group.

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Florida - Over 75.5 (-115) Under 69 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all - this looks like a good line to me. But I would be excited to get behind a pitching staff's like Florida's. With all of the high-K guys, there's tons of potential there and while the walks will in all likelihood preclude them from pushing 80 wins, you never know. Sometimes pitchers with talent like Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad and Ricky Nolasco can put it together.

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Houston - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That looks right to me. They're not good, but they have enough individual stars sprinkled throughout the roster to stay out of truly awful territory.

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Los Angeles Dodgers - Over 85 (-130) Under 85 (even)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Since the o/u number looks about in line with how I would call it, just give me the even money.

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Milwaukee - Over 81.5 (-115) Under 81.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

Here is last year's remark on Milwaukee.

I am buying the "Rickie Weeks is poised to go crazy" story.

OK, seriously, I am buying it this year. Perhaps more importantly, C.C. or no C.C., they won 90 ballgames last season. Sub-.500 would be a long way to fall.

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New York Mets - Over 90.5 (-120) Under 90.5 (-105)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

89 wins last season coming back with a wholly dependable bullpen. I will take the "they will choke again" discount I think we are getting with this line, too.

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Philadelphia - Over 88 (-125) Under 88 (-105)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

How does Chase Utley bounce back? Is Cole Hamels really a 225-inning horse? Jamie Moyer? Still? Raul Ibanez will not replicate what Pat the Bat did. Joe Blanton gets pounded this season at Citizens Bank Park. Should I go on?

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Pittsburgh - Over 69 (-115) Under 69 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

The coming Andy LaRoche developmental leap...that the bullpen is pretty solid...that Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit are both very much legit ballplayers.

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San Diego - Over 71 (-115) Under 71 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

That Tadahito Iguchi and Khalil Greene will be replaced by warm bodies, and that Chris Young and Jake Peavy will todd anywhere between 100 and 150 more innings than they did in 2008. I don't think the Padres are contenders by any stretch, but I do think this might be the easiest money on the board.

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San Francisco - Over 79 (-115) Under 79 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not a whole lot but give me the under by just a smidge. The lineup remains a wreck and I don't see the pitching taking any meaningful steps forward this season. Maybe Barry Zito bounces back a bit and Matt Cain takes a step in the right direction, but then Tim Lincecum probably comes off of his Cy Young numbers from 2008.

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St. Louis - Over 83.5 (-115) Under 83.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all. I will concede that this starting rotation might have the widest range of outcomes in terms of how it performs in 2009 - they may well turn out to be quite good. But I can't get too comfortable with Chris Carpenter coming off injury and Joel Pineiro doing the Joel Pineiro thing. Is Kyle Lohse dependable? Is Adam Wainwright a number one? I don't know.

This is the call in which I am least confident.

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Washington - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

That catcher Jesus Flores is the only guy that does not hit in this lineup. Check it out - pretty much all of the Nats offensive regulars have it in them to really rake.

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American League

Baltimore - Over 72.5 (-115) Under 72.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Matt Wieters, probably a few wins better than Gregg Zaun, starts in the Minors so that the O's can optimally manage his service time. I think their upside is a pesky 75-win team that wears down pitching staffs but with Wieters out and that pitching staff running out there, I will take the under on these guys.

==============

Boston - Over 94.5 (-115) / Under 94.5 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

The pitching is more or less guaranteed to be among the best in the American League. On offense, nobody except the catcher is a below average performer for their respective positions. Excellent, deep pitching and a solid, consistent offensive attack is a repeatable formula for teams interested in posting bigtime win totals.

==============

Chicago White Sox - Over 77.5 (-125) Under 77.5 (-105)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Aging bats anchor a mediocre offense. Fluky 2008 performers set to return to earth headline a pitching attack that strikes fear in nobody now that Vazquez has headed south.

==============

Cleveland - Over 85.5 (-115) Under 85.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That Cliff Lee regresses and all of CC's innings are gone. So that 85-win Pythag team set to get contributions from Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner once again unfortunately finds itself turning to Carl Pavano to contribute to its championship hopes. I understand the Cleveland bull case, the optimism, all of it. I am just not buying it.

==============

Detroit - Over 81.5 (-115) Under 81.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Injury and age-related questions everywhere. I will admit that Rick Porcello is a damn interesting wild-card, however. If I am wrong, I'll be cool with it if I get to see that guy pitch lights-out this early on in his career.

==============

Kansas City - Over 77 (-115) Under 77 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Why the hell not? They have some good starting and relief pitching, and a few interesting bats that could carry the lineup.

==============

Los Angeles Angels - Over 87.5 (-115) Under 87.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Just too many injuries in that starting rotation. Also, check out Mark Teixeira's output as an Angel sometime.

==============

Minnesota - Over 83 (-115) Under 83 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Scott Baker and Joe Mauer starting the year on the DL makes me skiddish about this call but I like the Twins a lot this year. I think their pitching will be deep and consistent, and expect them to edge Cleveland for the division title.

==============

New York Yankees - Over 94.5 (-115) Under 94.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much - the Yanks are excellent. I just think the A-Rod injury could pose problems all season long.

=============

Oakland Athletics - Over 82 (-115) / Under 82 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and most of all, Matt Holliday represent significant upgrades over the guys they will be replacing from the 2008 squad. Travis Buck bounces back, and some of that young talent that Billy Beane hopes is ready steps forward.

==============

Seattle - Over 73 (-115) Under 73 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

Not much at all. They were a 67-win Pythag team last year, figure to get Erik Bedard back and they have drastically improved their defense, which figures to help save some runs. I worry about the offense but I think Russell Branyan could offer a nice little unexpected boost over and above Richie Sexson's, um, output in 2008. I guess I just think six wins is a little much.

==============

Tampa Bay - Over 89 (-115) Under 89 (-115)

Prediction: Over

What is Vegas missing here?

Nothing, really. B.J. Upton emeges as a consistent regular but the bullpen regresses. They get a little boost from more Scott Kazmir innings, and that one month without A-Rod may mean an extra win or two for them. I like them closer to 92 wins.

=============

Texas - Over 74.5 (-115) Under 74.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

No more Milton Bradley, but plenty of other sticks. There are also holes in this lineup but then, the defense improves with Elvis Andrus and the starting pitching should take a step forward. Shake it all together, and I guess I just think there are too many problems with this roster. Hopefully JD keeps his job, though. It won't be too long before the Rangers field a winner.

==============

Toronto - Over 77.5 (-115) Under 77.5 (-115)

Prediction: Under

What is Vegas missing here?

That this is the year Toronto falls right off the cliff. Talent defections, financial problems, injuries...it's going to add up in an ugly way north of the border this season.

=============

OK folks, have at it. Who do you like? Where did I mess up? What's the one over/under pick you take with your life on the line?

Oh, and Happy Baseball. Should be one hell of a season.

Permalink | Comments (8)

Today, Rich, Jeremy and I conclude the division series previews with the AL West. You can find past previews below:

AL Central
NL Central
AL East
NL East
NL West

The numbers presented are the averages of each of the projection systems featured on the Fangraphs player pages.

CATCHER

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Napoli, M.      .246  .352  .480
Salty, J.       .259  .336  .421
Suzuki, K.      .265  .339  .382
Johjima, K.     .259  .307  .392

Rich: Mike Napoli cranked 20 home runs in 78 games while slugging .586, a higher rate than Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, and every other catcher in 2008.

Jeremy: The Rangers have a rare glut in catching depth, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the best hitter of the group. He put up a 27% line drive rate, which is really solid, but also a 37% strikeout rate, which is ridiculously high for someone who hit only three homers. The two factors resulted in a BABIP of .388 with a batting average of .253. Perhaps he should adjust to make more contact if it means sacrificing whatever power he may have, though of course it’s easier said than done.

Sully: I attended Game 3 of the ALDS last season, when Napoli hit a couple of moonshots at Fenway. I would love to see what he can do playing 125 games or so.

FIRST BASE

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Morales, K.     .278  .321  .438
Davis, C.       .279  .329  .531
Giambi, J.      .239  .372  .463
Branyan, R.     .235  .330  .465

Rich: None of these four first basemen held down the job a year ago. Kendry Morales has had a huge spring (.395/.427/.671 with 14 XBH in 82 PA). He won't replace Mark Teixeira's numbers but will surpass those provided by Casey Kotchman, who served as the Angels first baseman for four months last season.

Jeremy: Chris Davis hits home runs. It’s kind of his thing. This is a great group for Three True Outcomes, and we haven’t even gotten to Jack Cust.

Sully: Kudos to the Mariners for giving Russell Branyan the job. I've long wondered how he might be able to perform with everyday playing time. The M's are going to find out.

SECOND BASE

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Kendrick, H.    .309  .340  .448
Kinsler, I.     .287  .357  .472
Ellis, M.       .256  .329  .398
Lopez, J.       .281  .314  .418

Rich: Everybody except the AL West competitors would like to see what Howie Kendrick can do over a full season — if indeed he can stay healthy, which is something he has yet to accomplish. Kendrick, in fact, has never even played 100 games in a single season. His career walk rate (3.1%) and lack of home run power (12 HR in nearly 1000 career PA) suggest his ceiling may be much lower than his biggest supporters would like to believe.

Jeremy: Mark Ellis could foresee the collapse in the Free Agent market, but can he stop popping up a quarter of his fly balls?

Sully: Ian Kinsler hit .319/.375/.517 last season before going down. Given Kinsler's age - he's just 27, I will take the over on the projection listed above.

THIRD BASE

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Figgins, C.     .281  .337  .370
Young, M.       .293  .347  .418
Chavez, E.      .251  .331  .435
Beltre, A.      .267  .322  .459

Rich: Although Eric Chavez is only 31, I suspect he is at or near the end of the road. If not for his contract (which pays him $11M in 2009 and $12M in 2010 with a $3M buyout in 2011), I'm afraid Chavez may have been jettisoned by now. His OPS+ has declined from 134 in 2004 to 108 to 105 to 102 to 87 in 2008. The trend is not Eric's friend.

Jeremy: Adrian Beltre. Contract year. Not that he needs incentives. Contrary to popular belief, he’s lived up to his contract, as Fangraphs win values say he’s added $6 million in surplus value over the life of his contract. He’s always had a nice glove, and Safeco is probably the hardest park for right handed power hitters in baseball, so I’d expect some smart team to trade for him (The A's, Rich?) and reap the benefits.

Sully: Rich Lederer, 6/25/2007:

While Michael Young may be the face of the franchise, did it really make sense to give the 30-year-old shortstop an extension for his age 32-36 seasons at a cost of $16M per? Young wasn't eligible to test the free agent waters until after the 2008 campaign. Make no mistake about it, Young is a productive player but the majority of his value rests in his batting average and defensive position. Young will earn his new contract if he continues to hit .310-.330 while playing a decent shortstop, but how valuable will he be if his average slips to .275-.295 as his power declines, especially if he winds up at a less desirable position on the Defensive Spectrum?

SHORTSTOP

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Aybar, E.       .269  .310  .372
Andrus, E.      .251  .302  .327
Cabrera, O.     .276  .309  .379
Betancourt, Y.  .282  .307  .404

Rich: Can anybody hit here? These shortstops look like they are right out of the 1960s or 1970s. And Yuniesky Betancourt's advanced defensive metrics were horrible last year. But, hey, he saw a MLB-low 3.15 pitches per plate appearance in 2008!

Jeremy: Yeah, can I pass? I’ll say Orlando Cabrera is the only one here still holding his job in August.

Sully: There's nothing really to add about this group. Elvis Andrus will have to be Ozzie Smith reincarnate to make up for his bat.

LEFT FIELD

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Abreu, B.       .282  .377  .441
Murphy, D.      .271  .327  .438
Holliday, M.    .297  .370  .500
Chavez, E.      .273  .319  .364

Rich: This is a big year for Matt Holliday. The five-year veteran will be a free agent at the end of the season and needs to prove that he can hit outside Coors Field. His career home (.357/.423/.645) and road (.280/.348/.455) splits are about as pronounced as anybody's. That said, Hit Tracker's Greg Rybarczyk, in a guest column on our site, projects Holliday to post a .418 OBP and .563 SLG for an OPS (.981) that is much closer to his home than road performance.

Jeremy: I’m right there with you, Rich. Why do people use Holliday’s road stats as a proxy for his true talent level? Every hitter is better at home. Why not just use park-adjusted stats. A 140 OPS+ and .410 park-adjusted wOBA are awesome, and it would make sense to expect something similar this year.

Sully: Abreu hit .327/.408/.522 in the second half of 2008. If that's the hitter the Angels are getting out of the gates this season, it could go a long way in holding them over while some of their starters heal up.

CENTER FIELD

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Hunter, T.      .273  .331  .464
Hamilton, J.    .296  .365  .523
Sweeney, R.     .276  .340  .390
Gutierrez, F.   .260  .319  .411

Rich: While Franklin Gutierrez's offensive projections pale in comparison to Josh Hamilton's, he anchors a Seattle outfield that may be second to none defensively.

Jeremy: I’ve got to say, Josh Hamilton is highly overrated. So he tallied a bunch of RBI and put on a show during the home run derby. He was one of the worst defensive center fielders in baseball last year and was the third best hitter on his team behind Milton Bradley and Kinsler.

Sully: Now's the time for Ryan Sweeney. He took a big step forward last season, posting an above average offensive season in over 400 plate appearances. Now 24, he's the unquestioned starter on a team with high aspirations.

RIGHT FIELD

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Guerrero, V.    .307  .372  .520
Cruz, N.        .273  .343  .501
Buck, T.        .266  .344  .429
Suzuki, I.      .311  .358  .399

Rich: Just about the time I thought Big Daddy Vladdy was starting to lose it, the 33-year-old ... err, 34-year-old ... right fielder hits .330/.391/.580 during the second half last season. The Angels exercised their team option for 2009 but Guerrero is unsigned for 2010 and beyond.

Jeremy: Vlad and Ichiro are the two *most unique* players I’ve seen in my life. Bobby Abreu and Guerrerro in the corners are the antithesis of Endy Chavez and Ichiro in every way. I expect big things from Cruz, who not only had that well publicized sizzling end to the season with the bat, but also steals bases and is a solid outfielder. This might be his last chance.

Sully: In his Minor League career, Travis Buck hit .326. Last year, he hit .226. I think he is a solid bounce-back candidate in 2009.

DESIGNATED HITTER

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Rivera, J.      .274  .321  .457
Blalock, H.     .275  .336  .459
Cust, J.        .243  .382  .466
Griffey, K.     .248  .339  .426

Rich: Cust struck out, walked, or homered in 57 percent of his plate appearances last season. His 197 whiffs set an AL record and were the fourth-highest in the history of baseball. Did you know that the top four single-season totals took place in 2007 or 2008?

Jeremy: Interesting. I wonder how much of that is due to the fact that managers have a strong aversion to playing guys who struck out so often. I mean, there’s been a distinct change in styles of play, but managers have historically held a bias against batters who strike out, so as to avoid embarrassment. I’d imagine Juan Rivera plays a corner and Vlad or Abreu DHs. I’d also imagine neither Griffey nor Blalock plays more than 80 games.

Sully: It's amazing but Cust at DH might represent the single biggest positional advantage in the division. Maybe Napoli at catcher edges him.

STARTING PITCHING

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Saunders, J.    5.61    2.70	1.34	4.09
Weaver, J.	7.45	2.58	1.26	3.78
Moseley, D.	5.77	3.21	1.53	5.27
Adenhart, N.	5.71	4.52	1.61	5.10
Loux, S.	4.50	2.86	1.45	4.77

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Millwood, K.	6.29	2.77	1.44	4.61
Padilla, V.	6.24	3.37	1.44	4.88
Harrison, M.	4.98	3.40	1.52	5.17
McCarthy, B.	6.33	3.45	1.40	4.57
Jennings, J.	5.78	3.93	1.54	5.10

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Braden, D.	6.34	2.97	1.40	4.48
Cahill, T.	5.75	5.16	1.57	4.68
Eveland, D.	6.69	3.94	1.45	4.25
Anderson, B.	5.64	3.26	1.44	4.81
Outman, J.	5.75	4.13	1.52	5.35

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Hernandez, F.	7.93	3.11	1.32	3.78
Bedard, E.	9.24	3.44	1.26	3.51
Washburn, J.	5.19	2.89	1.39	4.44
Silva, C.	4.13	1.85	1.44	5.05
Rowland-Smith	7.18	3.80	1.40	4.09

Rich: If healthy, the Angels would have the best starting pitching in the division, perhaps by leaps and bounds. However, with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar shelved for April, the Halos will have to rely on prized prospect Nick Adenhart, journeyman Dustin Moseley, and never-has-been Shane Loux to comprise 60 percent of the rotation for at least the first month. I look for Adenhart to come through but am skeptical of Moseley and downright negative on Loux.

Jeremy: The Mariners have a pretty solid run prevention club. Felix Hernandez and Bedard make for an excellent front two, and the improved outfield defense will do wonders for the rest of the staff who have what you might call a strikeout problem. First step is admitting it, second is adding Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez.

Sully: The Mariners will be a real case study in how much we know about defense metrics. Consensus seems to be that Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva in particular stand to improve. Let's see how it plays out.

BULLPEN

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Fuentes, B.	9.69	3.41	1.22	3.30
Arredondo, J.	7.68	3.55	1.32	3.66
Shields, S.	8.62	3.61	1.30	3.61

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Francisco, F.	9.82	4.10	1.31	3.59
Wilson, C.	8.07	4.30	1.43	4.37
Guardado, E.	6.32	3.27	1.43	4.61

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Ziegler, B.	5.48	2.92	1.30	3.44
Springer, R.	7.69	3.06	1.19	3.19
Casilla, S.	8.19	3.78	1.37	3.94

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Morrow, B.	9.42	4.88	1.37	3.76
Batista, M.	5.53	4.52	1.61	5.07
Aardsma, D.	8.83	5.02	1.50	4.46

Rich: There are a lot of question marks here. Joey Devine, whose 0.59 ERA in 2008 was the lowest ever for any pitcher with 40 or more innings pitched, will visit Dr. James Andrews next week and is likely to miss at least a few weeks of action, if not the entire season. His injury leaves the closer role in the hands of submariner Brad Ziegler, who set a record with 39 consecutive scoreless innings to start a major league career last summer. Meanwhile, the Angels will have to muddle through without Francisco Rodriguez, the Rangers will hand the ball to the unproven Frank Francisco in the ninth inning, and Brandon Morrow has decided he would rather close than start for the Mariners.

Jeremy: Parting to the bullpen is such a poor decision for Morrow. Why are the Mariners letting him choose his path? And the Angels’ pen won’t miss a beat without K-Rod.

Sully: In 12 appearances last September, hitters pounded Ziegler to the tune of a .362/.423/.617 line.

Bench

Rich: The Angels have an outstanding bench, led by Maicer Izturis and Gary Matthews and with Brandon Wood only a telephone call away.

Jeremy: Brandon Wood has to be better than Aybar, right? And Ramon Vazquez has to be better than Andrus, right? And a loaf of bread has to be better than Bettancourt, right? What’s going on at short?

Sully: Rich has a beat on this one. The Halos bench is the class of the AL West.

Do you foresee any surprises this season in the AL West?

Rich: If two or more of the Angels disabled starters fail to take the hill 20 times this season, then this division is up for grabs and the winner may be the first team to nab 81 victories.

Jeremy: The division is wide open, so any team could potentially surprise. But I feel like some teams will start to follow in the Rays’ footsteps, and not try to contend until ready. I think the Padres, Mariners, and Rangers, who all have progressive front offices best I can tell, will tank until they’re ready to compete. I don’t mean actually try to lose, but I mean they won’t actively try to make a run and make midseason trades so they can have a chance at third place (like the Astros did trading for Randy Wolf).

Sully: I'll take the Mariners to win more than 75 games, which would be a 14-game improvement off of their 2008 total.

Who are the awards candidates in the division?

Rich: MVP: Ken Griffey Jr. Oh wait, this is the 2009 Mariner version, not 1999.

CYA: Felix Hernandez is the best bet here. OK, the only bet.

ROY: Elvis Andrus is the only position player with any chance while Nick Adenhart, Brett Anderson, and Trevor Cahill are long shots as pitchers.

Jeremy:
MVP: Holliday
CYA: Hernandez
ROY: Anderson

Projected standings?

Rich:

1. Los Angeles Angels: The Halos certainly won't win 100 games again but could fall short of last year's 89 Pythag season and still win this weak, four-team division.
2. Oakland A's: If the young pitchers aren't up to the challenge and Beane trades Holliday in July, the A's could find themselves in the cellar come October.
3. Texas Rangers: At a projected win total of 72, I'm more inclined to bet the overs than the unders.
4. Seattle Mariners: The M's could finish in second place if everything goes right.

Jeremy:

Athletics: 87-75
Angels: 82-80
Rangers: 75-87
Mariners: 70-92

Sully:

1. Oakland Athletics - too many health questions in the Angels rotation. The default choice.
2. Los Angeles Angels - See above.
3. Seattle Mariners - outfield defense, healthier Bedard, better luck, more wins
4. Texas Rangers - The starting pitching is just awful.

Permalink | Comments (1)

Today, Rich, Jeremy and I preview the NL West. You can find past previews below:

AL Central
NL Central
AL East
NL East

The numbers presented are the averages of each of the projection systems featured on the Fangraphs player pages.

Let's get to it.

CATCHER

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Martin, R.     .284  .376  .430
Snyder, C.     .244  .340  .424
Iannetta, C.   .263  .370  .461
Molina, B.     .277  .310  .427
Hundley, N.    .235  .291  .398

Rich: Russell Martin's walk rate (14.0%) increased to a career high while his isolated power (.116) plunged to a new low. With manager Joe Torre promising to limit Martin, who faded once again down the stretch, to 140 games behind the plate, the 26-year-old catcher's counting stats are likely to flatten out but his rate stats may approach or exceed their best levels.

Jeremy: Strong group here overall. Martin has a unique set of skills for a catcher with his speed, but it still doesn't make sense to me why the Dodgers shift him to third on off days.

Sully: Chris Iannetta has a shot to be one of the better players in the National League. Although he had a great 2006 season with the bat splitting time at Double-A and Triple-A, he came through the Minors with a strong defensive reputation. Now it is his bat that is turning heads. I say he ends the year as the best catcher in the league not named Mauer or McCann.

FIRST BASE

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Loney, J.      .293  .348  .449
Tracy, C.      .274  .333  .436
Helton, T.     .291  .402  .458
Ishikawa, T.   .257  .325  .446
Gonzalez, A.   .281  .353  .497

Rich: Put Todd Helton in Petco Park and Adrian Gonzalez in Coors Field and their projections would look totally different. Make of it what you will but Travis Ishikawa has slugged six home runs in 76 plate appearances this spring.

Jeremy: James Loney took a big step back last year following a really promising 2007 .331/.381/.538 campaign. His power evaporated and he swung and missed much more often, but he’s certainly young enough to turn things around. And yes Rich, Gonzalez is a beast playing in unfriendly confines.

Sully: Chad Tracy is not a very good fielding first baseman and he has a career 102 OPS+. I know this roster-assembly thing is not easy but if you're a club with high aspirations, sheesh, can't you find someone in professional baseball who can offer you more than Tracy as a first base option?

SECOND BASE

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Hudson, O.     .279  .351  .414
Lopez, F.      .271  .342  .397
Barmes, C.     .265  .307  .406
Frandsen, J.   .275  .331  .397
Eckstein, D.   .273  .340  .350

Rich: Which Felipe Lopez did Arizona sign? The bum who "hit" .234/.305/.314 in 100 games with Washington or the hero who hit .385/.426/.538 in 43 games with St. Louis? While his 2009 rate stats will undoubtedly fall somewhere between these peaks and valleys, look for the eight-year veteran to benefit by hitting at the top of the lineup in Chase Field.

Jeremy: I’m realizing the Dodgers have quite a lineup. If a second baseman who projects to hit better than league average is your worst hitter, you’ve done well for yourself.

Sully: Good point on Orlando Hudson, Jeremy. He's the type of acquisition that might tip the balance of power in the NL West.

THIRD BASE

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Blake, C.      .264  .335  .441
Reynolds, M.   .258  .334  .478
Atkins, G.     .293  .355  .470
Sandoval, P.   .297  .329  .461
Kouzmanoff, K. .274  .324  .463

Rich: Did the Dodgers really sign Casey Blake, who turns 36 in August, to a three-year, $17.5M contract three months ago? Aside from the Raul Ibanez and Edgar Renteria signings, this one has to be one of the silliest of the off-season. But all is not lost, Dodger fans. Ned Colletti included a team option at $6M for 2012. You know, just in case.

Jeremy: Lot of free-swingers in this group. Pablo Sandoval swung at the highest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone of any player, by far. I wonder if he and Bengie Molina will push each other to see who can have the shortest at bats. Kevin Kouzmanoff has some pop that is sapped by PETCO, but you can’t blame his league worst strikeout to walk ratio on the ballpark. And we can’t forget that Mark Reynolds broke the single season strikeout record last year.

Sully: I think Garrett Atkins is one of the likelier bounce-back candidates in the division. He struggled in 2008, but he was very good in 2006 and 2007. Just 29, look for Atkins to return to form this season.

SHORTSTOP

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Furcal, R.     .284  .353  .411
Drew, S.       .274  .330  .453
Tulowitzki, T. .278  .348  .445
Renteria, E.   .284  .343  .406
Rodriquez, L.  .263  .324  .350

Rich: Fun stat comparison... In the second half last season, All-World shortstop Hanley Ramirez hit .282/.414/.495 while the brother of J.D. Drew hit .326/.372/.556.

Jeremy: I’m looking forward to watching Troy Tulowitzki play a full season. I think that he’s easily the Rockies’ best player.

Sully: Good one on Stephen Drew, Rich. That's something the projection systems can't capture. While it would be silly to ignore all of the past data, it's entirely possible that something clicked for Drew during the second half of 2008.

LEFT FIELD

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Ramirez, M.    .300  .397  .540
Jackson, C.    .291  .373  .452
Smith, S.      .283  .351  .452
Lewis, F.      .270  .346  .414
Headley, C.    .271  .347  .443

Rich: Seth Smith went 0-fer against lefthanders last season. Granted, the sample size was only 11 at-bats. But there is little in Smith's past to suggest that he can hit southpaws. To wit, the former second round draft pick has gone yard only four times in more than 500 plate appearances vs. lefties over the past four minor league seasons. Based on Smith's inability to hit LHB, I was surprised to learn that the Rockies sent Matt Murton (.311/.382/.484 career vs. LHP) to Triple-A on Monday.

Jeremy: Fred Lewis is one of my favorite players since he does so many things well—fielding, hitting, running. He could probably replicate Barry Bonds’ production if only Scott Boras were his agent.

Sully: If Chase Headley puts up those numbers this season while playing home games at Petco, that will make him a nice little corner outfielder - especially for the price. Not that anyone will notice, of course.

CENTER FIELD

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Kemp, M.       .299  .347  .478
Young, C.      .252  .321  .469
Spilborghs, R. .294  .369  .450
Rowand, A.     .275  .339  .430
Gerut, J.      .280  .344  .458

Rich: Aaron Rowand is the highest paid center fielder in the NL West by far and possibly the least productive offensively. So his value must be due to his defense, right? Well, his advanced defensive metrics (-7.3 UZR/150 games in 2008 and a fifth-worst -24 Plus/Minus over the 2006-2008 period) belie his reputation as a Gold Glove-caliber fielder. But do not despair Brian Sabean supporters. Rowand is "only" owed $12M per season for the next four years.

Jeremy: Matt Kemp and Chris Young are breakout candidates who could both join the 30-30 club if thing go their way. Meanwhile, Jody Gerut might be the best player of the group but certainly won’t be recognized as such.

Sully: It's not Ryan Spilborghs' bat that concerns me. It's that he is going to be asked to man full-time center field duties. He's wholly unqualified for half of his job.

RIGHT FIELD

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Ethier, A.     .294  .363  .475
Upton, J.      .260  .346  .456
Hawpe, B.      .278  .370  .490
Winn, R.       .284  .342  .415
Giles, B.      .280  .378  .429

Rich: While Manny was being the Dodger Manny and hitting .396/.489/.743, teammate Andre Ethier was putting up a .368/.448/.649 line over the same period. Just sayin'.

Jeremy: Similar to the situation in center field, Ethier and Justin Upton will steal the headlines while the perpetually underrated Randy Winn and Brian Giles sneak under the radar. Each one of these teams has a really solid outfield, but the Dodgers have something special.

Sully: You summed up this group well, Jeremy. They're all pretty nice players.

STARTING PITCHING

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Kuroda, H.      5.84    2.39    1.29    3.93
Billingsley, C. 8.69    3.66    1.32    3.57
Kershaw, C.     7.76    4.05    1.41    4.17
Wolf, R.        7.53    3.51    1.41    4.47
McDonald, J.    6.97    3.58    1.39    4.67

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Webb, B.        7.23    2.66    1.24    3.37
Haren, D.       8.08    2.00    1.19    3.59
Davis, D.       6.77    4.11    1.54    4.67
Garland, J.     4.58    2.64    1.45    4.73
Scherzer, M.    9.10    3.78    1.32    3.74

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Cook, A.        4.01    2.40    1.42    4.40
Jimenez, U.     7.69    4.71    1.48    4.31
Marquis, J.     4.82    3.68    1.51    4.93
De La Rosa, J.  7.78    4.24    1.52    4.96
Morales, F.     6.04    5.36    1.62    5.12

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Lincecum, T.   10.00    3.53    1.22    3.13
Cain, M.        7.85    3.67    1.31    3.66
Johnson, R.     8.58    2.47    1.25    3.98
Zito, B.        6.39    4.31    1.46    4.38
Sanchez, J.     8.87    4.30    1.42    4.21

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Peavy, J.       9.05    2.89    1.18    3.25
Young, C.       8.06    3.80    1.27    3.71
Baek, C.        6.06    2.76    1.36    4.43
Correia, K.     6.80    3.62    1.42    4.27
Hill, S.        5.50    2.69    1.41    4.34

Rich: There are a number of good, young arms in this division. While San Francisco may not quite match up at the top with Arizona's Brandon Webb and Danny Haren, the starting rotation is every bit as good as its offense is bad. It goes five deep. And there's no mistaken who the No. 5 guy is. Just ask him.

Jeremy: The Giants have the best rotation in the division. It seems like a really odd decision for the Diamondbacks to have opted for Jon Garland over Randy Johnson. Ubaldo Jimenez has huge upside, flashing similar stuff to Felix Hernandez. They both use the standard four pitch repertoire and are the two hardest throwing starters in the Majors, as their fastballs average 95 miles per hour. But I don’t know if anything messes up a young pitcher worse than Coors field. Maybe Dusty Baker. Maybe.

Sully: If Arizona wants to compete for this division, they would be well served to stretch out Max Scherzer as soon as possible. Doug Davis, Garland and then four or five innings of Scherzer will not cut it for a championship caliber back-end of a rotation; even one that features Haren and Webb at the front.

BULLPEN

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Broxton, J.    10.84    3.31    1.18    3.02
Mota, G.        7.67    3.73    1.40    4.36
Kuo, H.        10.40    3.29    1.22    3.24

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Qualls, C       7.51    2.76    1.27    3.66
Rauch, J.       7.75    2.69    1.26    3.90
Pena, T.        6.63    2.63    1.27    3.77

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Corpas, M.      6.55    2.57    1.31    3.80
Street, H.      9.16    2.81    1.19    3.45
Buchholz, T.    7.03    2.63    1.27    3.81

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Wilson, B.      8.38    4.33    1.40    3.87
Howry, B.       7.20    2.26    1.28    3.98
Affeldt, J.     7.52    3.65    1.37    3.85

                 K/9    BB/9    WHIP    ERA
Bell, H.        8.86    3.10    1.23    3.25
Meredith, C.    6.54    2.53    1.31    3.72
Britton, C.     6.96    3.15    1.33    3.92

Rich: Who will close in Colorado? Manny Corpas or Houston Street? The odd man out may find himself on the trading block come July, especially if the Rockies appear to have little or no chance to make the playoffs.

Jeremy: Outstanding bullpens all around. Bob Howry had a 4.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and managed a 5.35 ERA last year. How is that possible? Guillermo Mota and Chris Britton are the only names I see here that I don’t like.

Sully: Given the pitcher he has become, can you blame Heath Bell for expressing frustration with Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson?

BENCH

Rich: Ian Stewart, Jeff Baker, and whomever is replaced by Dexter Fowler in the outfield give Colorado a potent bench. Did I mention Juan Pierre? The Dodgers are on the hook for $28.5M over the next three years. But, get this, ol' Juanderful isn't even the highest-paid backup left fielder in the division. That distinction goes to Eric Byrnes, who will be paid $11M in each of the next two seasons. Wonderful.

Jeremy: Byrnes does make for a very good (if expensive) fourth outfielder. The Rockies now have a surplus of outfielders after taking on Matt Murton and Carlos Gonzalez from the As, not to mention Fowler waiting in reserve.

Sully: I agree with Rich, here. Colorado's bench is the strongest in the NL West.

Who are the awards candidates from the NL West?

Rich: MVP: Manny. No, not Corpas. Nice try.

Cy Young: The West has produced the last three NL Cy Young award winners: Webb in 2006, Peavy in 2007, and Lincecum in 2008. Let's make it four different pitchers in four years and give it to Haren in 2009.

Rookie of the Year: If it's not Fowler, the Rookie of the Year will not be coming from this division.

Jeremy: MVP: If Manny Ramirez does anything, the BBWAA will try to award him the MVP twice.

CYA: Lincecum

ROY: Fowler

Sully: Manny has almost no competition at all for the best player in the NL West. It's a stretch but not inconceivable to me that Iannetta breaks out and becomes a top-10 MVP type player.

You could pull any NL West starting pitcher's name out of a hat and have a decent chance of picking the winner. Between the past winners and the budding stars, what a great division for those who appreciate the art of pitching.

Unfortunately for the kid, I think Spilborghs will hit too well to make room for Fowler.

Any surprises this year?

Rich: San Diego Padres manager Bud Black doesn't lose his sanity.

Jeremy: The Giants could make a run at the division if they were to acquire another bat. They have prospects to spare. And someone in that Diamondbacks outfield will hit 30 homers.

Sully: Call me crazy, but I don't hate the Padres as much as some do. With Peavy and Chris Young healthy, I think they improve off of last season's win total by at least seven games.

Predictions?

Rich:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: Youth, talent, and balance.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Will battle the Snakes for first place all season long.
3. San Francisco Giants: Won't finish first or fifth.
4. Colorado Rockies: Hey, I didn't trade Matt Holliday.

5. San Diego Padres: I've got the unders on Baseball Prospectus' 74-win projection.

Jeremy:

Los Angeles Dodgers: 87-75
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78
San Fransisco Giants: 81-81
Colorado Rockies: 78-84
San Diego Padres: 66-96

Sully:

Los Angeles by five games or so.
San Francisco
Arizona
San Diego
Colorado

==========

We will be concluding this series with the AL West on Friday.

Permalink | Comments (5)

I am going to take a stab, FJM style, at tackling what really is the quintessential Jon Heyman piece. It combines two elements that are featured in so much of his work; his disdain for (some) numbers and his continued, shameless PR work for Scott Boras Corp.

You might recall his commentary from the MLB Network studios the day the Hall of Fame results were announced. From Rich Lederer's January 13 piece.

"I never thought [Bert Blyleven] was a Hall of Famer when he was playing, and I saw him play his entire career."

"[His popularity] is based on a lot of younger people on the Internet who never saw him play."

"It's not about stats...it's about impact."

You might also recall Rich's trip through the Heyman/SBC archives.

While Boras is no fool, Heyman is a tool for the Scott Boras Corporation. Boras knows how to game the system to get the best deals for his clients and will gladly use Heyman as long as the latter plays along or until the market realizes what is going on. As it stands now, it's almost as if Heyman, who is no stranger to the Boras suites during the winter meetings, is on the SBC payroll.

Anyway, Heyman is back today with a scatterbrained defense of Curt Schilling's Hall case, as well as more gratuitous Manny Ramirez praise.

Let's have a look (Heyman's writing in bold).

---------

Curt Schilling has to be in the Hall of Fame.

No, he doesn’t. If you think he belongs in the Hall of Fame, then that’s a different matter. Just make your case.

I write that without any hesitation, reservation or research. I don't need to look at his stats. I know what he's done.

Oh, never mind. You’re not interested in making the case. Because if you were, you would need to look at his stats. It would allow you to assess how he performed throughout his career.

The Hall of Fame should be about impact, not statistics. Numbers are nice, but they don't necessarily make the player.

"Impact, not statistics." And how exactly do you suggest we measure “impact”?

For instance, in 2001, Curt Schilling threw over 256 innings, struck out 293 batters, walked just 39 and had a 2.98 ERA. He threw another 48 innings in the post-season, giving up six earned runs, striking out 56 and walking six.

Some might say that those statistics offer a good indication of Schilling’s “impact” for that season.

Some Hall of Fame cases are being built on a pile of numbers now, and I can see how in rare cases a player's career can be re-evaluated by dissecting the latest data.

Ooooh. A not-so thinly veiled reference aimed at Rich over his Blyleven case. Well played, Heyman. Here’s Rich “dissecting the latest data" as it relates to Blyleven:

5th all time in strikeouts, 8th all time in shutouts, 19th in wins.

Pretty cutting edge stuff.

But in general, I think that's a funny way to get into Cooperstown. Conversely, Schilling is maybe the perfect example of a pitcher who had great impact but whose career regular-year numbers are merely excellent but not among the all-time best.

Yes, evaluating a player’s performance sure is a peculiar thing.

The Hall of Fame should be for players who did great things, staged big moments and affected things the way Schilling did.

Stats measure all of these things.

Like him or hate (and I can't say I fall into the former category there, as I consider him a cyber and in-person annoyance), Schilling had a tremendous impact on most games he pitched, and on the game itself. He was a star who pitched his team into four World Series, and to three titles. In 2001 and 2004 in particular, it was his pitching that made the difference.

1) It’s not in any way relevant to Schilling’s Hall case how you feel about him, Jon. No need for the caveats.

2) Most pitchers impact games they pitch. Mark Hendrickson impacts games he pitches. Stats help to measure what kind of impact.

I ran into Schilling's former Phillies teammate Dave Hollins the day Schilling announced his retirement, and after one of us joked about whether Schilling would follow through on his announcement or stage some dramatic comeback, Hollins offered the long-held view of Schilling, but in a nicer way. "You love to have him on your side every fifth day,'' Hollins said.

Former Phillies GM Ed Wade expressed a variation of that statement (only said much harsher) many years ago. It went something along the lines of, "He was a horse once every five days and a horse's ass the other four days.''

More character references. Terrific.

Although I never spent four consecutive days with Schilling, I don't doubt that. He always came off as a guy who thought he was an expert in everything simply because he had more pitching talent than just about anyone else. He still blows hard on his 38Pitches, a Web site I religiously avoid.

I don't particularly like Curt Schilling. I generally don't agree with his politics, I do think he is something of a grand-stander and I think he is perpetually conscious of his image in a way that puts me off. But he's a thoughtful guy, and I appreciate that a Big League player takes the time to write as much as does and directly engage fans of the game. Heyman thinks he's a blowhard because he is bypassing him and talking directly to us. He is threatened.

But anyway, here’s something I encourage everyone to do. Go read some of 38Pitches. Then read some of Heyman’s work. You can then judge for yourself who’s the blowhard.

Anyway, Schilling still gets credit for that fifth day, not demerits for the other four. Schilling was often great on that fifth day, and he was almost always great when it mattered most.

It takes a big man to look past those four days he never once had to spend with Schilling and evaluate him on his pitching. Or his impact. Or his moments...or however it is Jon Heyman evaluates baseball players.

There are people who believe that he played the famed "bloody sock'' game for all it was worth, that he purposely made it look good, or at least did nothing to stem the flow of blood. I wouldn't put much past Schilling, but I am convinced that he was hurt, and that he was bleeding, and that he should get credit for pitching heroically that day, for beating the Yankees and the jinx, and for helping the Red Sox win the World Series for the first time in 86 years

The bloody sock has nothing to do with how Curt Schilling performed.

He called a championship for Boston -- saying that was his intention the moment the Diamondbacks traded him there -- then he delivered. That's almost Namath-like. Joe Namath's career football numbers aren't so perfect, either, and nobody doubted his Hall of Fame qualifications.

Round and round we go. Joe Namath was probably not a Canton-worthy performer but he guaranteed a victory while playing in America's biggest media market so he became a big star. The media made him that. When it came time to vote him for the Hall, many of the same media members, Hall voters, referenced the guarantee in building his case.

So here you have Heyman citing a football player's Super Bowl guarantee, famous only because the media made it such, in helping to build his case for Schilling. It's all very, very stupid.

Championships are what it's all about…

I don’t know. Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Willie McCovey were all pretty good.

…and Schilling played as great a role in winning championships as just about any player of his generation except Mariano Rivera.

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, David Cone and Roberto Alomar might disagree.

That Schilling won "only'' 216 games shouldn't be counted against him. That he had "only'' maybe seven or eight great seasons shouldn't either. If it's about numbers, it shouldn't only be about total numbers. He had three 300-strikeout seasons, three 20-win seasons. He struck 3,116 batters while only walking 711.

He had all-time stuff. And as much as I hate to admit this, he had all-time heart. He was 10-2 with a 2.23 ERA in the postseason. He and Randy Johnson were the two biggest keys to the Diamondbacks winning the thrilling 2001 World Series, and he and Manny Ramirez were the keys to the Red Sox winning the historic 2004 Series.

This is my favorite part about these columns - the part where the writer rails against statistics, only to then cite statistics just paragraphs later.

So anyway, now we’re talking statistics. Which is it, Jon?

It's safe to say Schilling is about the last person I'd want to spend any appreciable time with. But if I had a game on the line I had to win, and if Sandy Koufax wasn't available that day, I'd give John Smoltz or Schilling the ball.

Oh, Schilling is the last person you’d want to spend time with? I think I know who the first is…might it be Manny Ramirez’s agent?

There is plenty of offensive firepower in the San Francisco Giants clubhouse. Or there was on the day I visited. Willie Mays was sitting at a table in the clubhouse, Willie McCovey was resting in the dugout, and Will Clark was chatting with current players. The Giants' starting pitching looks so good, it's truly a shame they don't have at least one active player anywhere near as good as any of those guys in their prime.

Among active players, Manny Ramirez would have made a nice addition to the Giants. He could have replicated the years of Barry Bonds, with comparable productivity, less controversy and more good cheer.

No, Manny Ramirez could not have replicated the years of Barry Bonds. And good grief, Jon. Please give us a break. With Stephen Strasburg looming, we don't even get to wait until next off-season for you to start shilling for Boras again.

Let us enjoy the start of the baseball season in peace.

Permalink | Comments (17)

Joe Posnanski is the best and most prolific sports writer in the country. Quality and quantity. Rate stats and counting stats. He's No. 1 in both. A long-time, award-winning columnist for the Kansas City Star, Poz has branched out and now also writes for Sports Illustrated (including last week's cover story on Albert Pujols) and operates one of the must-read baseball blogs. He has a book, The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stopping World Series-The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, that is scheduled to be released on August 18th. We are honored that Joe took the time out of his busy schedule to participate in our AL Central preview.

Jeremy Greenhouse, kicking ass and taking names here at Baseball Analysts since he started a few weeks back, joins Poz and me from Davis Square.

We have the NL East, AL East and NL Central behind us. Let me recap how we do this.

For hitters we take five available projection systems at Fangraphs. I know I have mentioned this before but Fangraphs is seriously awesome. Without it, you might think Carlos Gomez was a lousy player. Anyway, we average all five of these projection systems to give you a sense for how the number crunchers see the players performing this season.

For pitchers, pretty much the same thing. We go with the four projection systems readily available on the Fangraphs player pages. We go with depth charts from ESPN.com. Some of the players penciled in below will not be starting, and some might not even break camp. But we figured this was a pretty good way to keep things consistent.

OK, here goes....

Catcher

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Pierzynski, A.    .272  .311  .410
Mauer, J.         .315  .401  .451
Shoppach, K.      .250  .324  .462
Olivo, M.         .247  .277  .418
Laird, G.         .257  .312  .394

Poz: In my opinion, Joe Mauer was the MVP in 2006 and again in 2008, though he really didn't get much support either time. I suspect this is the year Victor Martinez makes the transition to first base; I do like Kelly Shoppach quite a lot. I didn't get why the Royals spent money on Miguel Olivo and John Buck, who are basically the same guy. I will say, though, that Olivo is faster than you would think: 7-for-7 in stolen bases last year.

Jeremy: Mauer really needs to get some MVP love. He logged the most innings behind the plate of his career last year and put up a .413 OBP. And color me skeptical on Shoppach. If he were to have become the player 2008 indicated he was, he probably would have before he was 28.

Sully: I've written about this before but someday writers will evaluate Mauer's Hall case and knock him because he didn't win an MVP (or maybe only won one).

First Base

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Konerko, P.       .264  .353  .473
Morneau, J.       .288  .357  .501
Martinez, V.      .292  .365  .448
Jacobs, M.        .263  .315  .489
Cabrera, M.       .310  .380  .553

Poz: Justin Morneau seems to me the Jim Rice of our generation – good batting averages, lots of RBIs, big fear factor, an MVP candidate every year. I know Victor Martinez is not much of a catcher, but he just doesn't thrill me offensively as a first baseman. I've written at length about Mike Jacobs' weaknesses, but if he bangs 30 homers he would help the Royals. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the division, in my opinion.

Jeremy: Isn’t it weird that Miguel Cabrera led the AL in homers last year with 37? Jacobs doesn’t belong on the field against left-handed pitching, but using him in a platoon could make for a dangerous combination. The problem is that the right-handed hitting Ryan Shealy has shown a rather strong reverse platoon split in his career, and even if Billy Butler could handle playing the field, the Royals would be left without a DH. Still, anything ought to be better than Ross Gload.

Sully: Cabrera is a pretty crummy fielding first baseman but he makes Jacobs look like Keith Hernandez over there.

Second Base

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Getz, C.          .271  .334  .386
Casilla, A.       .265  .326  .349
Cabrera, A.       .270  .342  .395
Callaspo, A.      .279  .336  .378
Polanco, P.       .306  .352  .412

Poz: Been watching the Royals second-base “battle” closely, of course, and have been intrigued with the idea of Mark Teahen at second. Not as intrigued after watching him play the position. A scout tells me he thinks Placido Polanco wins the batting title this year.

Jeremy: Polanco’s ranked second in the league at making contact on pitches at which he swings each of the last two years, and has also been one of the couple hardest batters to strike out. If he continues to get a bit lucky in the BABIP department, he can definitely compete for a batting title. His .306 career average is top 15 among active players.

Sully: Asdrubal Cabrera is just 23 and already has demonstrated he can produce at the Big League level. Give me the over on his numbers.

Third Base

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Fields, J.        .249  .324  .441
Crede, J.         .251  .304  .426
DeRosa, M.        .274  .353  .422
Gordon, A.        .264  .346  .446
Inge, B.          .235  .311  .397

Poz: I do think this could be a breakthrough year for Alex Gordon, though I'm not sure what breakthrough year means for him. The Brett comparisons seemed absurd at the time; now they seem destructive. With Brandon Inge and Adam Everett, the Tigers should catch everything on the left side.

Jeremy: If Fields turns into nothing more than a Quad-A player, the Sox will surely regret letting Crede walk. Crede has an excellent glove, and has been solid every year other than 2007. I think we all expected Gordon to break out at some point, but to me it seems like he’s just following a smooth career progression and will hopefully hit his peak in a year or two. I don’t see him showing the same potential as Evan Longoria or Ryan Zimmerman.

Sully: Mark DeRosa has gotten better in each of his 30-33 seasons. I am not sure when it is going to end, but Cleveland's got themselves a nice player.

Shortstop

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Ramirez, A.       .289  .322  .471
Punto, N.         .251  .321  .333
Peralta, J.       .270  .336  .446
Aviles, M.        .289  .324  .440
Everett, A.       .240  .282  .343

Poz: Alexei Ramirez has lots of obvious flaws, but in many ways he was my favorite player to watch in 2009. I have no idea how much different Everett makes the Tigers, but he's the best defensive shortstop in the game. I'm down on Jhonny Peralta, but I was telling someone that at spring and then watched him hit a 450-foot homer to center, so I could be wrong.

Jeremy: There’s no way Mike Aviles can top last year, right? Ramirez is essentially the polar opposite of Everett. Everett is only four years older, but he’s been in the league since 2001 and has established himself as a light hitter with bat control and as one of the best defensive players in the game. Ramirez stormed upon the scene as a rookie last year, endearing himself to White Sox fans as a free swinger, but not faring too well in the field. He faced the lowest percentage of fastballs of any hitter last year and still swung more often than anyone but Vlad. He’s not likely to handle the transition to short too well. Perhaps an obvious comparison, but I’d move him to the outfield a la Alfonso Soriano. I think Peralta might ultimately belong at third.

Sully: Will Inge and Everett combine for a .300 on-base? I say "no".

Left Field

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Quentin, C.       .268  .364  .494
Young, D.         .294  .333  .429
Francisco, B.     .269  .329  .430
Guillen, J.       .268  .318  .440
Guillen, C.       .290  .365  .457

Poz: David DeJesus moves from center to left, and he moves from first to third in the lineup. I wonder how he handles all that mentally. One baseball executive told me that Carlos Guillen is absolutely his favorite player in baseball because he will play anywhere, do anything you ask, and he's a pro. I like Guillen too – but that seems an odd “favorite player in baseball” choice.

Jeremy: The trade for Carlos Quentin was a great move last year, while Delmon Young and Jose Guillen were terrible acquisitions, and that’s not really hindsight. Most people’s verdicts on those moves were similar at the time those moves were made. Francisco might just be a place-holder for prospect Matt LaPorta. Once LaPorta comes up, Francisco could be relegated to being his caddy.

Sully: Carlos Guillen is my favorite converted shortstop playing left field in the AL Central.

Center Field

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Wise, D.          .252  .303  .424
Gomez, C.         .279  .305  .368
Sizemore, G.      .279  .376  .496
Crisp, C.         .270  .331  .392
Granderson, C.    .280  .354  .488

Poz: The Grady Sizemore vs. Curtis Granderson argument is probably the most compelling and fun question in the division. Sizemore hits lefties better and walks a touch more which gives him a slight lead, but Curtis Granderson is probably MY favorite player in baseball, and not just because he's my Facebook friend.

Jeremy: Ground will be covered. Coco Crisp and Gomez are all glove no bat, but what gloves they are. Sizemore’s and Granderson’s careers to date have practically mirrored each other. Granderson is coming off an uncharacteristically poor year in the field, according to the advanced metrics. Sizemore is somehow heading into just his age 26 season and is my choice for MVP.

Sully: Gomez is so darn good with the glove that he does not need to develop quite as much as one might think in order to push Sizemore and Granderson. I would love to see what a .300/.325/.400 Gomez looks like in terms of value.

Right Field

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Dye, J.           .273  .334  .500
Span, D.          .278  .350  .387
Choo, S.          .283  .363  .457
DeJesus, D.       .283  .355  .417
Ordonez, M.       .310  .372  .494

Poz: I remain in awe of Magglio Ordonez's comeback. He and Mike Sweeney seemed to be virtually identical hitters for a while there; but Magglio has had a great second act. I'm no Jose Guillen fan, but I do admit to getting great enjoyment out of watching him uncork throws. His arm is preposterously strong and preposterously erratic which provides many fun moments.

Jeremy: Denard Span was phenomenal once he earned his starting job in July. Shin-Soo Choo has been receiving his share of hype, and rightfully so after a .309/.397/.549 campaign. I could see Span and Choo supplanting Jermaine Dye and Ordonez as the class of the division as age takes its appropriate course.

Sully: I was a year early on Choo last season but I am eager to see what he can do in 2009. He's under the radar, but the type of guy that could tip the balance of power in the division if he replicates his production from last season.

Designated Hitter

                   AVG   OBP   SLG
Thome, J.         .251  .373  .498
Kubel, J.         .273  .335  .461
Hafner, T.        .264  .376  .479
Butler, B.        .287  .348  .443
Sheffield, G.     .246  .345  .422

Poz: I look for Butler to have his breakthrough season, and I look for Travis Hafner to continue his struggles. But, like always, I could be wrong.

Jeremy: Jim Thome seems ageless for a player with “old-player skills.” I’d say he currently ranks behind only Ryan Howard in opposite-field power. I wonder if he makes his way into the Hall of Fame. Gary Sheffield and Hafner appear to be over the hill, but inversely Butler is the first up-and-coming DH we’ve seen in several years.

Sully: Whatever chances you think the Tigers might have this season, it's hard to imagine Sheffield won't sink them. He's terrible now, totally unacceptable as a DH and he can't play in the field. And when Jim Leyland goes to replace him, how do you think he will take that?

Starting Pitching

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Buehrle, M.     5.38   2.20   1.35   4.25
Danks, J.       7.58   3.05   1.34   4.15
Floyd, G.       6.32   3.40   1.42   4.63
Richard, C.     5.11   2.93   1.47   4.85
Colon, B.       5.99   2.59   1.43   4.85

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Baker, S.       6.95   2.15   1.28   4.08
Liriano, F.     8.32   3.23   1.30   3.87
Slowey, K.      6.84   1.67   1.20   3.87
Blackburn, N.   4.72   2.01   1.37   4.46
Perkins, G.     5.71   3.16   1.48   4.98

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Lee, C.         6.58   2.08   1.25   3.76
Carmona, F.     5.44   3.59   1.42   4.15
Sowers, J.      4.81   2.78   1.43   4.68
Pavano, C.      5.35   2.76   1.43   4.82
Reyes, A.       6.46   3.14   1.37   4.45

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Meche, G.       7.14   3.20   1.37   4.13
Greinke, Z.     7.66   2.60   1.30   4.01
Bannister, B.   5.35   2.86   1.42   4.79
Davies, K.      6.03   3.99   1.56   5.15
Hochevar, L.    5.67   3.27   1.47   5.00

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Verlander, J.   7.38   3.40   1.33   4.03
Bonderman, J.   7.25   3.09   1.37   4.27
Jackson, E.     6.03   3.89   1.53   4.94
Galarraga, A.   6.46   3.34   1.36   4.37
Miner, A.       5.66   3.70   1.45   4.30

Poz: Everyone seems to be looking for that third starter. I like Kyle Davies a lot to fill that role in Kansas City; dominant in September and has looked great all spring. If he's figured it out, I think Royals could have best 1-3 in the division. Twins have best 1-5. I don't know what to think about the Indians rotation. Cliff Lee figures to come down, and the league may have figured out Fausto Carmona.

Jeremy: I think each team has a solid ace in Lee, Zach Greinke, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, and John Danks. The Twins have the best No. 2 in Kevin Slowey. He boasted the lowest walk rate among starters, and probably has more upside than Gil Meche. Carmona is a wild card. The only differences I see in the pitch f/x data from his great 2007 to his ghastly 2008 were in his use of the change/splitter against righties in 2007, and lack thereof in 2008. But it looks like the velocity, movement, and release point were more or less consistent both years, though fangraphs' data shows his velocity has been on a bit of a downward trend.

Sully: As a whole, I like Minnesota's staff more than most. It's like they have five solid 2-3 guys to run out there with some pretty decent depth in Philip Humber and Craig Breslow to boot. Slowey, Baker and Liriano all have the potential to exceed "solid 2-3" expectations, too.

Bullpen

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Jenks, B.       7.60   2.80   1.21   3.30
Dotel, O.      10.77   3.79   1.31   4.09
Thornton, M.    9.05   3.57   1.29   3.63

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Nathan, J.      9.86   2.61   1.07   2.51
Crain, J.       6.71   3.08   1.34   4.00
Mijares, J.     7.08   4.86   1.54   5.08

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Wood, K.        9.62   3.45   1.23   3.39
Lewis, J.       7.92   3.60   1.36   3.99
Betancourt, R.  8.16   2.48   1.21   3.64

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Soria, J.       9.16   2.61   1.07   2.57
Farnsworth, K.  8.46   3.82   1.44   4.60
Cruz, J.       10.52   4.59   1.33   3.51

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Zumaya, J.      8.91   5.13   1.42   3.72
Rodney, F.      9.05   4.92   1.44   4.11
Lyon, B.        5.86   2.52   1.35   3.99

Poz: Lots of strikeouts in that Kansas City bullpen. I'm hoping for Joel Zumaya to make a full return; he's just fun to watch. Lots of pressure on Kerry Wood in Cleveland.

Jeremy: Zumaya still has the fastest pitch on record at 104 miles per hour, and has averaged between 97 and 99 each season. It would be a shame if his arm were to fall off before he managed another full season. Juan Cruz to Joakim Soria might be the best finishing duo today. The Indians look like they have the best overall bullpen.

Sully: Kansas City and Minnesota feature top-heavy bullpens but give me Cleveland's top to bottom.

Bench

Poz: Does bench even matter anymore with teams consistently going with 12 pitchers? Royals have Willie Bloomquist, who will either be a big help off the bench or a huge liability in the lineup. I'm an unabashed Gardy fan, and I love the way he uses the Twins bench.

Jeremy: Michael Cuddyer and Dave Dellucci are capable as fourth outfielders. Gordon Beckham of the Sox can probably be as productive as either Chris Getz or Ramirez up the middle.

Sully: With Delluci and Ryan Garko in the mix, I like the Tribe's depth.

Who are the awards candidates from the AL Central?

Poz: MVP: Sizemore, Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau.

Morneau is always a candidate. I have two Tigers here though I think the Tigers will be lousy. It's a defense mechanism: If the Tigers do surprise, they will be the MVP reasons why.

Cy Young: Lee, Zack Greinke, Soria, Joe Nathan, Verlander.

I have a feeling about Greinke. I don't think Lee will have anything close to the same year, but he deserves to be on the list just for last season. Does Verlander bounce back?

Jeremy: MVP: Sizemore, Mauer

CYA: Lee, Greinke

ROY: Beckham, LaPorta

Sully: You guys covered them right there, I would say.

Any surprises this year?

Poz: I'm torn. Every year I pick the Royals to be my biggest surprise. But it could be the Detroit Tigers. Maybe this is the year that offense unloads.

Jeremy: I don’t think the White Sox will contend again unless Kenny Williams pulls off a few more trades. Maybe this is the year Ozzie Guillen gets the ax. I think Lee repeats as a top starter in the AL, which might go against the grain. He’s really good.

Sully: I think Paul Konerko will have a big bounce-back year. He's only 33 and remember, he hit .291/.372/.540 from 2004-2006. His batting average fell off a cliff in 2007 and in 2008 he battled injuries. This spring he is hitting .378/.417/.689 with four home runs.

Predictions?

Poz:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Detroit Tigers

I don't think there's much gap at all between 1-5. The Indians, the more I look at them, seem like a very flawed team. The Twins are just the Twins and with Mauer/Morneau/Gardy and a pitching staff that doesn't walk anybody they will probably be there. I have to pick the Royals as a contender – it's part of the job. I think the White Sox and Tigers are both very flawed, but the Sox won the division last year and the Tigers could score a lot of runs. Frankly, I have no idea.

Jeremy:

Cleveland Indians: 87-75
Minnesota Twins: 82-80
Detroit Tigers: 82-80
Kansas City Royals: 75-87
Chicago White Sox: 74-88

But I'll be pulling for the Royals for Joe's sake.

Sully:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Chicago White Sox

Mauer, Morneau and a consistent run prevention unit lead Minnesota to the division crown.

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Thank you, Jeremy and thanks especially to Joe Posnanski. We will wrap the next two Fridays with the NL and AL West.

Permalink | Comments (10)

With the AL and NL East behind us, we now turn our attention to the NL Central. Here's a reminder of how we are breaking this down.

Here’s the deal. For hitters we take PECOTA and the four projection systems on Fangraphs. Fangraphs, by the way, is awesome. They are doing terrific, differentiated, value-add work and if you are a regular reader of Baseball Prospectus and/or The Hardball Times, you should add Fangraphs to your favorites as well. Anyway, we average all five of these projection systems to give you a sense for how the number crunchers see the players performing this season.

For pitchers, in the interest of keeping things simple and consistent, we go with the three projection systems readily available on the Fangraphs player pages. No PECOTA because the data presentation was not as compatible with the numbers we wanted to display.

We went with depth charts from ESPN.com. Some of the players penciled in below will not be starting, and some might not break camp. But we figured this was a pretty good way to go. As we draw closer to Opening Day with the other divisions, we will look to implement as accurate of an indication as possible with regard to who figures to start at each position.

We are changing three things this time.

1) Fangraphs has added Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections, so we replace PECOTA with ZiPS. We are now simply averaging all available projections on the Fangraphs player pages.

2) We couldn't nail down a member of the mainstream media for this edition, so today you have staffers Rich Lederer, Jeremy Greenhouse and myself.

3) I took out W-L projections for starting pitchers because I do not think they are all that useful.

Without further ado...

Catcher

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Soto, G.        .285  .361  .486
Kendall, J.     .259  .333  .330
Quintero, H.    .249  .291  .356
Molina, Y.      .271  .327  .375
Hernandez, R.   .261  .324  .419
Doumit, R.      .288  .345  .471

Jeremy: Ryan Doumit and Geovany Soto can both mash, but Doumit has problems staying on the field. Soto could be the one to put up the first 30 homerun season from a catcher in five years.

Rich: You got it, Jeremy. Soto is the class of this division but Doumit made lots of noise last year and is no longer flying under the radar.

Sully: Looks like Houston needs Pudge.

First Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Lee, D.         .290  .369  .477
Fielder, P.     .281  .375  .539
Berkman, L.     .292  .398  .528
Pujols, A.      .330  .430  .612
Votto, J.       .289  .363  .496
LaRoche, Ad.    .269  .341  .482

Rich: The NL Central is rich in first basemen, including the best in the biz. If you can avoid drooling, just click on this link and enjoy.

Jeremy: Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball, and last year Lance Berkman was right up there with him. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Joey Votto overtake Berkman this year. Votto was the second best rookie in the NL behind Soto, and is now entering a peak age 25-26 season. He was also one of three Reds to finish in the top five along with Jay Bruce, and, of course, Edinson Volquez.

Sully: I don't know, Jeremy. I still would have to take Berkman. There really isn't a bad player in the bunch here, though.

Second Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Miles, A.       .285  .329  .367
Weeks, R.       .251  .359  .420
Matsui, K.      .272  .328  .397
Schumaker, S.   .290  .344  .397
Phillips, B.    .267  .317  .439
Sanchez, F.     .289  .329  .405

Jeremy: Yikes. Brandon Phillips is the only above average second baseman in this group. He’s a superb fielder and may be in line for some positive regression after a rather unlucky average on balls in play. Rickie Weeks is an enigma. He has as much potential as anyone, but he has confounded the scouts, and his stats are just as confusing. Last year among batters who qualified for the batting title, his .345 average on groundballs was best and .527 average on line drives in the league. I don’t know what to make of him.

Rich: I would reluctantly go with Phillips here. While he may not "believe that on-base percentage stuff," the free swinger is still better than the competition (although not nearly as much as his counting stats would suggest).

Sully: If Mike Fontenot gets more time than Aaron Miles and comes close to replicating his 2008, then the balance of power at second in the NL Central could look a little different.

Third Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Ramirez, A.     .288  .359  .515
Hall, B.        .248  .316  .435
Blum, G.        .242  .299  .377
Barden, B.      .255  .314  .378
Encarnacion, E. .274  .351  .470
LaRoche, An     .241  .331  .384

Jeremy: I really hope Andy LaRoche pans out for the sake of Neal Huntington. Aramis Ramirez is another solid Cubbie. They have a bunch of All-Stars but no superstars.

Rich: This is the year when we find out if LaRoche is any good. He's 25 years old and has been basically handed the starting job despite an absolutely horrible two months in Pittsburgh (.152/.227/.232). Keep your eye on Neil Walker, a former catcher, if LaRoche fails to deliver the goods.

Sully: Ramirez is clearly the class of the NL Central third basemen. A healthy, productive Troy Glaus could change the dynamics at this position.

Shortstop

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Theriot, R.     .284  .356  .361
Hardy, J.       .275  .335  .459
Tejada, M.      .291  .338  .441
Greene, K.      .249  .301  .426
Gonzalez, A.    .257  .311  .413
Wilson, J.      .272  .319  .376

Jeremy: J.J. Hardy is a really nice player—perhaps the best on the Brewers. I’m most interested in seeing how Khalil Greene does this year outside of Petco. Greene couldn’t do a thing right last year, but if he reverts back to 2007 form, he could be a really nice pickup for the Cards. Per Hit Tracker Online, Greene’s average standard distance on homeruns over the last three years been 382.9, 402.7, and 385.8 respectively. Was 2007 an anomaly?

Rich: Not a lot to pick from here but Greene could be the sleeper. He has spent virtually his entire career playing home games at Petco Park but will call Busch Stadium III home this year. His OPS has been 22 percent higher on the road (.802) than at home (.658). If healthy, Greene could hit 20-25 home runs and his team-dependent stats will benefit by being surrounded by a better lineup in St. Louis than San Diego.

Sully: Quietly, Ryan Theriot had an excellent 2008. If he's the worst player in the lineup, it's in all likelihood going to be on a good team.

Left Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Soriano, A.     .277  .333  .518
Braun, R.       .299  .352  .579
Lee, C.         .293  .350  .515
Rasmus, C.      .244  .325  .412
Hopper, N.      .288  .338  .355
Morgan, N.      .277  .330  .362

Jeremy: Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Braun are actually somewhat similar players. They started out as atrocious infielders but gained a great amount of value when they moved to left. They’re both power/speed threats. And out of all left-fielders, they ranked 2nd and 3rd in swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone, behind the hacktastic Delmon Young.

Rich: Kudos to the Brewers for moving Braun off the hot corner last year. He went from being the worst-fielding third baseman in the majors to a decent left fielder with the potential of becoming a plus defensive player who might one day win a Fielding Bible Award as the competition in LF is nearly non-existent in the National League.

Sully: It's the "have's" and the "have not's" for left field in the NL Central. Half the division trots an excellent left fielder out there everyday and half the division will in all likelihood be giving back runs to their opposition in left.

Center Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Johnson, R.     .279  .343  .401
Cameron, M.     .243  .330  .442
Bourn, M.       .248  .314  .336
Ankiel, R.      .260  .322  .492
Taveras, W.     .271  .325  .332
McLouth, N.     .268  .345  .460

Jeremy: The Cardinals have some great upside in each of their outfielders. Colby Rasmus is a top-five prospect, Rick Ankiel has some of the best raw power and one of the best arms in the game, and Ryan Ludwick just demonstrated how awesome he can be if all the pieces fall into place. Of course, it’s doubtful all three of them pan out this year.

Rich: Little-known fact: Ankiel hit .270/.343/.537 with 20 HR in the first half last season. He then suffered an abdominal injury in late July and hit .169/.286/.308 over the next 28 games before being shut down for the remainder of the season in early September.

Sully: I am interested to see how Nate McLouth backs up his breakout 2008. If he can post a .200 (or greater) ISO for the third straight season, he will have another superstar campaign.

Right Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Bradley, M.     .291  .392  .502
Hart, C.        .279  .329  .482
Pence, H.       .287  .339  .493
Ludwick, R.     .275  .347  .517
Bruce, J.       .280  .335  .507
Moss, B.        .263  .327  .434

Rich: Can Milton Bradley stay healthy for a full season? He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004. The guy can flat out hit (over .300/.400/.500 in each of the past two years) and, depending on playing time, will either will be an MVP candidate or a bust.

Jeremy: “Well, you can get a healthy guy to go out there and play 162 games, but he won’t do what I did in 120.” – Bradley

Sully: Nicely done, Jeremy.

Starting Pitching

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Zambrano, C.    7.17   3.89   1.34   3.83 
Harden, R.     10.86   3.63   1.15   2.88 
Dempster, R.    7.30   3.60   1.31   3.93
Lilly. T.       7.86   3.10   1.28   4.06
Marshall, S.    6.56   3.37   1.37   4.36

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Gallardo, Y.    8.66   3.46   1.29   3.70
Bush, D.        6.13   2.20   1.27   4.27
Suppan, J.      5.00   3.27   1.52   4.98
Looper, B.      5.09   2.53   1.36   4.44
Parra, M.       7.71   3.86   1.46   4.30

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Oswalt, R.      6.93   2.16   1.25   3.66
Rodriguez, W.   7.54   3.32   1.39   4.35
Hampton, M.     4.84   3.45   1.50   4.90
Moehler, B.     5.20   2.54   1.45   4.88
Backe, B.       6.29   4.12   1.59   5.47

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Wainwright, A.  6.34   2.71   1.30   3.73  
Pineiro, J.     5.21   2.68   1.45   4.94
Carpenter, C.   6.91   2.41   1.23   3.60
Lohse, K.       5.71   2.58   1.37   4.34
Wellemeyer, T.  6.56   3.73   1.39   4.21

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Harang, A.      7.79   2.38   1.29   4.20
Volquez, E.     8.94   4.22   1.36   3.85
Arroyo, B.      6.88   2.89   1.37   4.43
Cueto, J.       8.24   3.17   1.34   4.50
Owings, M.      7.04   3.29   1.38   4.61 

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Maholm, P.      6.03   2.98   1.39   4.35
Duke, Z.        4.58   2.45   1.50   4.89
Snell, I.       7.63   3.83   1.50   4.71
Gorzelanny, T.  6.38   3.96   1.46   4.51 
Karstens, J.    5.64   2.81   1.40   4.62

Jeremy: The Cubs are on their way to leading the Majors in strikeouts for the ninth straight year, but the Reds might be able to match them K for K. Last year the Reds front four put up an 8.09 K/9 rate while the Cubs managed a 7.91 K/9 rate. Also, Carlos Zambrano and Micah Owings will have an interesting silver slugger race. The skill of hitting for pitchers is entirely undervalued.

Rich: While the Cubs rotation will get most of the attention, it says here that the Reds starting five will be every bit as good after adjusting for ballpark effects (unless Harden is healthy all year).

Sully: Just as compelling as the Cubs/Reds comparison is for best rotation in the division is the 'Stros/Bucs battle for the worst. Boy, do those two rotations look bad?

Bullpen

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Marmol, C.     10.66   4.43   1.22   3.16
Samardzija, J.  6.37   4.24   1.49   4.57
Gregg, K.       8.06   3.95   1.33   3.81

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Hoffman, T.     7.76   2.49   1.21   3.71
Villanueva, C.  7.92   3.05   1.29   4.00
Riske, D.       7.28   4.19   1.43   4.21

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Valverde, J.   10.54   3.34   1.21   3.49 
Brocail, D.     6.77   3.13   1.34   4.00
Geary, G.       6.02   3.12   1.34   3.81 

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Motte, J.       8.89   3.37   1.29   3.70 
Franklin, R.    5.45   2.93   1.37   4.21
Perez, C.       9.40   5.17   1.42   3.99

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Crodero, F.     9.93   3.92   1.32   3.55
Weathers, D.    6.09   3.80   1.43   4.18
Bray, B.        9.23   3.72   1.39   4.02

                 K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Capps, M.       7.03   1.69   1.12   3.33
Grabow, J.      7.65   3.98   1.40   4.09
Yates, T.       8.00   4.66   1.51   4.50

Jeremy: Who’s going to close in St. Louis? Chris Perez and Jason Motte both have similar profiles and it’s always an experience to see how Tony La Russa manages his pen.

Rich: There are some live arms in this division, headed by Carlos Marmol, who has struck out 210 batters while allowing only 81 hits in 156.2 IP over the past two seasons. No, that is not a misprint or a typo. The 26-year-old righthander steps into the closer role for the Cubs with the departure of Kerry Wood. Veteran Kevin Gregg is waiting in the wings if it turns out Marmol is more comfortable pitching the eighth rather than the ninth inning.

Sully: Look at that projected walk rate for Perez! Motte has got to start the year as the Closer in St. Louis.

Bench

Rich: Did anybody outside Cincinnati notice that Chris Dickerson hit .304/.413/.608 last year? He hit home runs, walked, and stole bases. Oh... and he turns 27 in April.

Sully: With Kosuke Fukudome and Miles/Fontenot, I like the Cubs depth.

Who are the awards candidates from the NL Central?

Jeremy:

ROY: Edinson Volquez (Actually, Rasmus.)

CYA: Rich Harden, with requisite disclaimers

MVP: Albert Pujols

Rich: Good one on the Rookie of the Year, Jeremy.

MVP: Let's get real now.

CYA: Harden, but only if he can throw 200 innings for the first time in his career. The only other pitcher I could see winning this award would be Volquez.

ROY: It won't be an Astro. How's that?

Any surprises this year?

Jeremy: I think the Reds and Astros will switch places in the standings.

Rich: The Reds play .500 ball for the first time since Bill Clinton's presidency.

Sully: I am with you guys on the Reds. All they need is a little bounce back from Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo along with anticipated developmental strides from their youngsters.

Predictions?

Jeremy:
Cubs: 95-67
Brewers: 86-76
Reds: 83-79
Cardinals: 81-81
Astros: 73-89
Pirates: 66-96

Rich: Chicago wins it in a run, run, runaway. Call it ten games. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have the easiest-rated schedule in the majors. Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Cincinnati will battle it out for second place. The winner may have an outside shot at a wild card berth although I would be surprised if any of these three teams wins more games than either the Mets or Phillies. Houston barely escapes the cellar, dropping at least a dozen games in the standings year over year. Pittsburgh finishes last for what will be the last time in the next five years.

Sully: I am with you, Rich. I think the Cubs will win their division by a greater margin than any other division winner in 2009.

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Thanks, guys! AL Central next Friday...

Permalink | Comments (10)

As I mentioned in last week's AL East preview, I spent last weekend in Fort Myers with my buddy Erik. We flew out of JFK last Thursday night and went to the Marlins-Sox game at City of Palms Park on Friday. We also attended the Sox-Rays game in Port Charlotte on Saturday.

Erik and I have been great friends for about 18 years or so. We come from neighboring suburbs of Boston and played basketball and baseball on our respective town teams against each other for a few years before enrolling in The Roxbury Latin School for seventh grade in the fall of 1992. We were then teammates, on every school baseball, basketball and football team we played on for six years. Erik went on to Williams College and played both baseball and football. I went to Penn to try and play baseball but was cut after the fall season my freshman year. Doug Glanville or Mark DeRosa I was not.

We stayed with my cousin Jared. Jared is the Red Sox Coordinator of Professional Scouting and of all the more senior members of the Sox front office, works most closely with former Royals GM Allard Baird. He was kind enough to let us stay with him, to get us great seats for both games and to let us hang around for the weekend with many of his baseball operations colleagues.

Needless to say, Erik and I had a blast. What follows is a series of photos we snapped, with some commentary where I feel like offering it.

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Jed Lowrie getting loose before the game.

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Josh Beckett started the game for the Sox.

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This was a cool match-up to watch. Beckett against the Marlins uber-prospect, Michael Stanton. Stanton is enormous. He could have played baseball and football at USC but instead chose to sign with the Marlins and as an 18-year old in the South Atlantic League, hit .293/.381/.611 (39 home runs) in 2008. Baseball America recently ranked Stanton the number 16 prospect in baseball.

Also, while we moved around a bit, these were our seats for the game. Pretty good.

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A few shots of the Marlins on-deck circle with Cameron Maybin warming up and another with Cody Ross walking up to the plate. If the Marlins are to make any noise this season, they will need these two to produce.

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This is Adam Mills. I was pumped when I found out Mills would be throwing, since I interviewed and profiled him on this site before the 2007 draft. He struck out two in two perfect innings of work.

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A view of City of Palms Park from the right field pavilion.

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We liked this guy's jersey.

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While Jared was in college, he worked for the Brewster Whitecaps of the Cape Cod League. Taylor Tankersley, then at Alabama, was on his team. Here he is warming up in the visitors' bullpen.

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We already talked about the #16 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. Here is #17, first baseman Lars Anderson.

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This is Zach Daeges, a minor league left fielder who hit a line shot for a two-run home run off of Chris Volstad. He's 25 and a fringe prospect but he's a career .314/.415/.504 professional hitter who has not had an on-base below .400 since his freshman year at Creighton.

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Erik and I, then Jared and I standing in left field.

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After the game, Bill James hung around behind the plate. We had met before at breakfast last spring when Rich and his son Joe came to Boston for a game. He was nice enough to engage in a conversation about the makeup of the Sox team and pose for this picture with me.

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This is the view from our seats for the Sox-Rays game on Saturday.

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Jacoby Ellsbury getting set to lead off the game.

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James Shields was a pleasure to watch from this vantage point. He throws a heavy fastball and his change-up looks unhittable.

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Grant Balfour looked pretty good too. All of the scouts' radar guns came out when he took to the hill.

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Four friends taking in the game from a center field pavilion high-top table.

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Like many other things in Florida, I didn't quite know what to make of this sign.

==========

Spring Training is a great take for any baseball fan. Even though the WBC depleted some of the talent we were able to see on the field, the chance to be up close and personal with so many in and around the game is something that just wouldn't happen once the regular season starts.

We had so much fun last weekend that we've already decided to pencil in a Red Sox Spring Training trip for each year we can possibly do it.

Permalink | Comments (8)

I am reporting from Ft. Myers and heading over to City of Palms Park this afternoon, so it only seems fitting that we would have a look at the AL East today. Last week we previewed the NL East.

To recap:

Here’s the deal. For hitters we take PECOTA and the four projection systems on Fangraphs. Fangraphs, by the way, is awesome. They are doing terrific, differentiated, value-add work and if you are a regular reader of Baseball Prospectus and/or The Hardball Times, you should add Fangraphs to your favorites as well. Anyway, we average all five of these projection systems to give you a sense for how the number crunchers see the players performing this season.

For pitchers, in the interest of keeping things simple and consistent, we go with the three projection systems readily available on the Fangraphs player pages. No PECOTA because the data presentation was not as compatible with the numbers we wanted to display.

We went with depth charts from ESPN.com. Some of the players penciled in below will not be starting, and some might not break camp. But we figured this was a pretty good way to go. As we draw closer to Opening Day with the other divisions, we will look to implement as accurate of an indication as possible with regard to who figures to start at each position.

Chipping in from Baseball Analysts today with commentary is Marc Hulet, contributor here and also at Fangraphs. We are also very thankful to have Pete Abraham, Yankees beat writer for the The Journal News.

Catcher

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Navarro, D.     .267  .334  .389
Varitek, J.     .236  .328  .390
Posada, J.      .273  .366  .448
Barajas, R.     .243  .303  .392
Wieters, M.     .298  .382  .499

Pete: I think Jorge Posada will bounce back this year offensively. Throwing was never his strength, so he just needs to be able to keep runners a little honest. I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.

Sully: Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic prosperity in America.

First Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Pena, C.        .254  .370  .500 
Youkilis, K.    .283  .377  .474
Teixeira, M.    .290  .383  .525
Overbay, L.     .265  .343  .419
Huff, A.        .279  .340  .471

Pete: Mark Teixeira will start slow; he always seems to. But will be bounce back in New York? That'll be interesting to watch. I don't think Kevin Youkilis is as good as he was last year. Carlos Pena, either.

Marc: The addition of Teixeira to the AL East obviously has huge implications. It will be interesting to see if Youkilis can repeat his stellar 2008 season, or if he reverts to his still-productive-but-not-a-star former self. I have to disagree with Peter. Offensively, I think Pena will be OK; he's still in his prime and should drive in 100 again.

Sully: Tex is hands down the best in the division and I have to agree with Pete. Youk's slugging jump last year was a blip, and not a new established norm. He's a really nice player, but not a perennial MVP candidate type.

Second Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Iwamura, A.     .270  .346  .389
Pedroia, D.     .307  .368  .456
Cano, R.        .292  .331  .450
Hill, A.        .277  .334  .408
Roberts, B.     .282  .359  .424

Pete: I like Brian Roberts. Not sure I like him for four more years and $40 million. It's too bad Robinson Cano doesn't have the desire to be great that Dustin Pedroia does. The Yankees thought they did the right thing with his deal last year and then it blew up on them. He's a big project for Joe Girardi.

Marc: This position is definitely a strength in the division, with Pedroia, Roberts and Cano. If Aaron Hill is fully recovered from the concussion he suffered last season, you can add his name to that list too. Cano should definitely rebound; he's taken his lumps in the media and has something to prove.

Sully: That four year extension for Roberts was hard to figure for where Baltimore currently stands in the success cycle.

Third Base

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Longoria, E.    .273  .347  .499
Lowell, M.      .275  .336  .444
Rodriguez, A.   .291  .387  .548
Rolen, S.       .263  .342  .434
Mora, M.        .271  .337  .431

Pete: (ed note: submitted pre-injury) A-Rod loves the drama and will have a huge year. Of course he'll then hit .052 in the playoffs. If he starts slow, however, the fans could really get ugly. They're already mad about the price of tickets. I'll be curious to see how Mike Lowell takes Boston trying to get rid of him all winter.

Marc: The injury to A-Rod changes the dynamics of this position with vague reports on exactly when he'll be back. The Yankees definitely did not have a fallback plan for the position. I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like he's 37 years old.

Sully: Lowell's a pro and will handle the situation accordingly. So long as his fielding does not drop off, he will be a very valuable player once again.

Shortstop

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Bartlett, J.    .274  .332  .366 
Lowrie, J.      .265  .346  .410 
Jeter, D.       .299  .367  .419
McDonald, J.    .231  .278  .312
Izturis, C.     .259  .310  .325

Pete: It speaks poorly of the shortstops in this division that Derek Jeter is still the guy you want over any of the rest of them. It's amazing how the Red Sox can't find a decent answer there. I'd like to point out that I once selected John McDonald to an American Legion All-Star team in Connecticut and gave him a Norwich Bulletin t-shirt.

Marc: Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense will be abysmal. If Jed Lowrie wrestles the full-time job away from Lugo in Boston than the club will likely be better off offensively, but I like Lowrie a lot as a super-sub. The position is extremely weak offensively in Toronto with McDonald and Marco Scutaro, who is going to start regressing soon at the age of 33. It's hard to believe Toronto used No. 1 draft picks on college shortstops in 2002 and 2003 and never did end up with a long-term solution at the position.

Sully: With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?

Left Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Crawford, C.    .291  .334  .433
Bay, J.         .272  .364  .487
Damon, J.       .279  .352  .423
Lind, A.        .281  .330  .458
Pie, F.         .263  .317  .410

Pete: Johnny Damon is actually a pretty good defensive left field (well, not including throws). I think we're going to see some serious regression at the plate, however. His legs are not what they once were.

Marc: Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as good as the other two players. Toronto could have the AL Rookie of the Year with Snider in left, who will share the position (and DH) with Adam Lind, another good, young player.

Sully: Out of Jason Bay and Carl Crawford, I will be interested to see who ends up as the better player at the end of the season according to Fangraphs. Bay has the good stick but can't field, Crawford's offense leaves a bit to be desired but can track anything down in left.

Center Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Upton, B.       .279  .376  .432
Ellsbury, J.    .293  .350  .415
Gardner, B.     .260  .342  .359
Wells, V.       .274  .329  .457
Jones, A.       .274  .324  .420

Pete: Pecota has B.J. Upton not being so special. I can't argue against the math, but I do think what he did in the postseason could vault him forward. You could see him mature every day in October. If Brett Gardner can somehow get a .360 OBP, he'll change the way the Yankees look. But his swing might be too big for that.

Marc: I am a big Jacoby Ellsbury fan. He's going to really step up his game this season. The position in New York is thin... hmm, just like third base. There are a lot of cracks in the roster considering the payroll. Those pitchers better stay healthy. Count me as someone who thinks Upton is going to breakout in a big way this season.

Sully: We have consensus on Upton. I think he goes off in '09.

Right Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Joyce, M.       .247  .324  .448
Drew, J.        .270  .381  .460
Nady, X.        .278  .332  .462
Rios, A.        .285  .338  .459
Markakis, N.    .297  .378  .477

Pete: J.D. Drew showed up hurt, which saves time. I'm surprised Brian Cashman didn't trade Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady. That probably speaks to Hideki Matsui's knees. I'll trust Tampa that Matt Joyce will help them.

Marc: I am not sold on Joyce, and his injury definitely hurts his chances of making the Opening Day roster in Tampa. Can Alex Rios finally breakout offensively (and consistently)? Please?

Sully: I laughed when I saw Pete and Marc's comments because I can't figure out why you hand Joyce a starting gig on a championship aspirant club.

Designated Hitter

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Burrell, P.     .245  .368  .464
Ortiz, D.       .281  .387  .543
Matsui, H.      .279  .358  .442
Snider, T.      .262  .330  .462
Scott, L.       .261  .343  .477

Pete: Tampa had a lot of good choices and went with Burrell. Bobby Abreu would have been a good fit. I think Hideki Matsui is close to finished. He can barely run. It's also hard to know what to make of David Ortiz given his health in recent years.

Marc: Heath is definitely the big area of concern with the big two: Ortiz and Matsui. Will Aubrey Huff's big season of a year ago continue? I doubt it. It will be interesting to see how Burrell does in the AL with Tampa.

Sully: Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.

Starting Pitching

                 W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Shields, J.     13-9   7.23   1.89   1.18  3.70
Kazmir, S.      10-8   9.75   3.86   1.30  3.68
Garza, M.       10-9   6.95   3.12   1.32  3.92
Price, D.        3-4   6.82   3.55   1.40  4.35
Sonnanstine, A. 11-9   6.31   1.94   1.26  4.07

                 W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Beckett, J.     13-8   8.25   2.32   1.21  3.68
Matsuzaka, D.   12-7   8.35   3.96   1.33  3.75
Lester, J.      11-8   6.85   3.45   1.37  4.00
Wakefield, T.    9-8   5.70   3.23   1.35  4.32
Penny, B.        8-7   5.76   3.27   1.44  4.30

                 W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Sabathia, C.    15-9   8.02   2.20   1.19  3.37
Burnett, A.     13-9   8.77   3.45   1.31  3.81
Wang, C.        11-6   4.63   2.79   1.37  3.96
Pettitte, A.    11-10  6.59   2.69   1.41  4.31
Chamberlain, J.  6-3   9.60   3.36   1.24  3.25

                 W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Halladay, R.    15-12  6.54   1.76   1.17  3.37
Litsch, J.      10-10  5.40   2.36   1.29  4.07
Purcey, D.       6-7   7.27   3.63   1.40  4.52
Richmond, S.     5-6   6.43   2.89   1.39  4.57
Janssen, C.      3-3   5.82   2.59   1.31  3.85

                 W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Guthrie, J.      9-9   5.98   2.97   1.33  4.09
Uehara, K.       ---------------
Waters, M.       6-8   5.51   4.17   1.55  5.12
Hill, R.         6-6   7.68   4.07   1.38  4.25
Liz, R.          6-7   7.34   5.05   1.58  5.30

Pete: The Yankees could be overwhelming and they have Phil Hughes in reserve. Boston took too many chances. Tampa was freakishly healthy last season.

Marc: New York is the beast in the starting pitching department, obviously. I can't see the A.J. Burnett deal working out in the end; he'll start strong and be dominant early, but the history of inconsistencies and injuries is sure to come back and bite. Boston's depth at starting pitcher is impressive.

Sully: Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe there is hope for that O's staff.

Relief Pitching

                K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Percival, T.   7.42   4.06   1.29   3.94
Wheeler, D.    7.81   3.03   1.23   3.63
Balfour, G.   10.82   2.56   1.23   3.12

                K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Papelbon, J.   9.70   1.99   1.02   2.49
Okajima, H.    8.08   3.08   1.22   3.36
Masterson, J.  7.60   3.76   1.33   3.75

             
                K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Rivera, M.     8.33   1.71   1.04   2.67
Marte, D.      8.85   3.87   1.32   3.65
Bruney, B.     8.24   5.21   1.46   4.09

                K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Ryan, B.       9.09   3.85   1.27   3.45 
Downs, S.      7.36   3.47   1.30   3.54
League, B.     6.33   3.48   1.39   4.02

             
                K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA
Sherrill, G    9.17   4.45   1.35   3.76
Ray, C.        7.98   3.54   1.27   3.77
Johnson, J.    6.10   3.62   1.44   4.32

Pete: The Red Sox made some smart moves here. Don't sleep on Brian Bruney of the Yankees. He's not as colorful as Joba Chamberlain but he could be every bit as effective.

Marc: Mariano Rivera is a robot. I am convinced of that; he'll still be dominating the AL East in 15 years. Baltimore will be helped by getting Chris Ray back (Tommy John surgery). The closer role could be a weak spot in Tampa, as well as Toronto - if B.J. Ryan cannot regain some consistency.

Sully: Personally, I think Bruney's walk numbers will plague him. Justin Masterson will be one to watch this year.

Bench

Pete: The Yankees treat the bench like an ashtray in a $100,000 car. It's there but they really don't pay much attention to it.

Marc: New York's bench will be almost non-existent. The Rays club has the best depth on the bench, with the likes of Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar, Gabe Gross, etc. Toronto should have a lot of versatility. The Kevin Millar addition is growing on me, as long as it doesn't take at-bats away from Adam Lind and Travis Snider.

Sully: Rocco Baldelli, Josh Bard, Julio Lugo....Boston does a nice bench.

Who are the awards candidates from the AL East?

Pete:
MVP: Upton
Cy Young: Matsuzaka
Rookie: Price

Marc: I like Snider as the AL RoY (followed by David Price). C.C. has to be given mention as a Cy Young candidate, as does Halladay - although he'll get forgotten about by a lot of people when Toronto has a terrible season. AL MVP sleeper: Nick Markakis.

Sully: Sabathia for the Cy, Teixeira for MVP, Price for ROY.

Any surprises this year?

Pete: I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games They have a chance to be dreadful.

Marc: If the Yankees continue to have injury woes, the depth is not there to patch the holes. Even with the starting rotation, I can see them finishing third in the division... but more likely they'll be in second place.

Sully: I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.

Predictions?

Pete:
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

Marc:
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Tampa
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto

Sully: As I get ready to head over to the Red Sox-Marlins game, is it any surprise that I am with Marc here?

=====

Special thanks to Pete for taking time out of his busy schedule. NL Central is up next week...

Permalink | Comments (20)

We've made it to March and although the baseball season is right around the corner, the story lines still don't get all that interesting. Sure, there are some good previews out there (we will be continuing our own series of them on Friday with the AL East), but for the most part it's this guy or that guy are in the best shape of their life or another Jon Heyman/Scott Boras ventriloquist act on the latest concerning the Manny Ramirez talks. Mercifully, the latter may have come to an end yesterday.

The off-season, a time to discuss and analyze comings, goings, acquisitions, trades, defections and the like, is coming to a close and to celebrate, it seems like as good a time as any to have a look at the very best players to have played their entire careers in just one uniform. We will take a starting eight plus a DH, a right-handed and left-handed starter and a relief pitcher.

Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter seem like good candidates to play their entire careers for the Yanks. Maybe Joe Mauer, the local boy, or the great Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals will play out their respective careers for one team, too. Perhaps Chipper Jones? But more and more, playing one's entire career for a single organization looks like a thing of the past. That's ok, too. Free agency has made baseball players rich, which strikes me as perfectly appropriate since the baseball players are the reason we watch and love the game. So this is not any sort of moral commentary, just a nod to the best players that never switched teams.

CATCHER: Johnny Bench, Cincinnati Reds

If Yogi Berra had not suited up four times for the 1965 Mets, would he have surpassed Bench here? You tell me:

           G     GC*   OPS+  AVG   OBP   SLG
Berra    2,120  1,699  125  .285  .345  .482
Bench    2,158  1,742  126  .267  .342  .476
* Games played at Catcher

Both are truly all-time greats and I am not sure how you would pick one or the other. It would have to come down to defense and from what I have read and heard, there was nobody better than Bench. Think having a good catcher helps? Both Berra and Bench were centerpieces on two of the great baseball dynasties of all time.

FIRST BASE: Lou Gehrig, New York Yankees

I used to own a lot of baseball history VHS tapes and watch them over and over again growing up. I can't remember if this was in one of those, or perhaps it was on an ESPN classic show about Gehrig or Cal Ripken. Anyway, someone on it says that the consecutive games streak devalues Gehrig's career while serving to inflate Ripken's. I came to believe this as gospel truth when I was 13 or so, and would regurgitate this nugget to anyone that would listen to me.

Well I still believe it to be the case about Gehrig but it is entirely unfair to Ripken. Anyway, did you know that Gehrig hit .340/.447/.632 for his career?!?! .340/.447/.632! The man slugged .765 in 1927! And the guy was an RBI machine despite having Babe Ruth (career .474 on-base) clogging the bases hitting in front of him! I find myself forgetting all of this sometimes, which is why I am always endlessly amused when I head back over to his B-Ref page. It's just unbelievable.

SECOND BASE: Charlie Gehringer, Detroit Tigers

Of note, he gets his strongest push for this slot from fellow Tiger, Sweet Lou Whitaker.

             G     OPS+  AVG   OBP   SLG
Gehringer  2,323   124  .320  .404  .480
Whitaker   2,158   126  .276  .363  .426

Gehringer was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1949 while Whitaker is in the Bobby Grich & Dwight Evans Criminally Overlooked club.

THIRD BASE: Mike Schmidt, Philadelphia Phillies

George Brett is Schmidt's stiffest competition here, and it's actually a pretty interesting comparison if you want to just start tossing out numbers. They were contemporaries, and Brett played in about 300 more games, had 78 more triples, 257 more doubles, the same amount of RBI and more runs. He had 920 more hits and struck out 975 fewer times.

But here's where baseball gets really simple. Schmidt made outs less frequently, hit for way more power and had a better glove. Therefore, he was pretty clearly the superior player.

SHORTSTOP: Cal Ripken, Baltimore Orioles

Ripken featured the best of both worlds. He had a remarkable peak and also played more games than any shortstop in baseball history. Honus Wagner and Arky Vaughan may have had better peaks and if you want to count Alex Rodriguez as a shortstop, he was probably better, too. But taken together, peak and longevity, Ripken is right there among them as one of the all-time greats.

OUTFIELD (with one as DH):

Stan Musial, St. Louis Cardinals
Mel Ott, New York Giants
Mickey Mantle, New York Yankess
Ted Williams, Boston Red Sox

The numbers speak for themselves here. I am going to line these four up and show your their career stats, just because they're so damn fun to look at.

             G     OPS+  AVG   OBP   SLG
Musial     3,026   159  .331  .417  .559
Ott        2,730   155  .304  .414  .533
Mantle     2,401   172  .298  .421  .557
Williams   2,292   191  .344  .482  .634

STARTING PITCHERS: Walter Johnson, Washington Senators & Warren Spahn, Boston/Milwaukee Braves

This one is not all that close. Steve Carlton might have pushed Spahn but he bounced around towards the end of his career. Christy Mathewson might have done the same if it weren't for that one game he pitched for Cincinnati. He won the game, going all nine while giving up eight earned runs on 15 hits!

Walter Johnson pitched 5,914 innings at a 147 ERA+ clip. Spahn tossed 5,243 frames with a 118 ERA+.

RELIEF PITCHER: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

Baseball Reference shows 85 relief pitchers who have tossed 1,000 innings. Of those, Rivera leads with a 199 ERA+. The next best is 146.

==========

Ok, that's my team. If I missed anywhere or you have any other comments relating to guys toiling for their whole career with one squad, please do not hold back.

Permalink | Comments (26)

It’s preview season, folks, and we're shifting gears for 2009. We are scrapping the Two on Two format we have run the past few years. It was fun, conversational and we had some talented guests. But they were looooong and light on numbers. We're changing it up this season.

Here’s the deal. For hitters we take PECOTA and the four projection systems on Fangraphs. Fangraphs, by the way, is awesome. They are doing terrific, differentiated, value-add work and if you are a regular reader of Baseball Prospectus and/or The Hardball Times, you should add Fangraphs to your favorites as well. Anyway, we average all five of these projection systems to give you a sense for how the number crunchers see the players performing this season.

For pitchers, in the interest of keeping things simple and consistent, we go with the three projection systems readily available on the Fangraphs player pages. No PECOTA because the data presentation was not as compatible with the numbers we wanted to display.

We went with depth charts from ESPN.com. Some of the players penciled in below will not be starting, and some might not break camp. But we figured this was a pretty good way to go. As we draw closer to Opening Day with the other divisions, we will look to implement as accurate of an indication as possible with regard to who figures to start at each position.

You will then get brief commentary from me, from another Baseball Analysts contributor (today it’s Papa Bear, Rich) and then a member of the mainstream media. What’s a preview without someone who managed to emerge from their Mom’s basement?

Today we kick off with the NL East, and we are grateful to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post for participating.

Catcher

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Ruiz, C.       .253  .332  .378
Schneider, B.  .249  .326  .368
Baker, J.      .259  .337  .394
McCann, B.     .296  .362  .506
Flores, J.     .249  .306  .408

Kevin: Mets have to get some offense from Brian Schneider, who insists he is better prepared for the challenge of playing in New York this year.

Sully: The 25-year old Brian McCann is the strongest of this bunch but I will be interested to see if John Baker can build on his .299/.392/.447 stint in the Big Leagues last season.

Rich: McCann, hands down. His 2008 season was about halfway between his 2006 and 2007 campaigns. I see no reason why he won't put up similar numbers this year. In the meantime, I've got the unders on Baker repeating those rate stats as a sophomore.

First Base

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Howard, R.     .271  .369  .562
Delgado, C.    .265  .350  .492
Cantu, J.      .270  .321  .455
Kotchman, C.   .281  .348  .431
Dunn, A.       .246  .378  .506

Rich: Ryan Howard is in the prime of his career and reportedly in great shape. What's not to like? I meant with respect to Howard, not Florida's and Atlanta's first basemen.

Kevin: Over a 23 day span in September the revitalized Carlos Delgado slugged seven home runs and drove in 19 runs. Over that same stretch Ryan Howard hit 11 home runs and drove in 31 runs. Enough said.

Sully: Some announcer is going to remark in September that Jorge Cantu, with 23 home runs and 89 RBI is having "another productive year". Take it to the bank.

Second Base

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Utley, C.      .295  .376  .515
Castillo, L.   .276  .354  .340
Uggla, D.      .259  .340  .477
Johnson, K.    .281  .362  .453
Hernandez, A.  .245  .295  .337

Sully: In a division loaded with individual stars, Chase Utley remains the very best. Now 30, it will be interesting to see how long he can keep up the HOF-caliber output (with the bat and glove) that we have seen from Utley since he burst onto the MLB scene in 2005. Four second basemen have had a better OPS+ in their 26-29 seasons: Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins and Rod Carew. Not bad.

Rich: If Utley is healthy from the get go, he is the class of this group, followed by Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, and . . . yuck . . . I'll leave it at those three.

Kevin: Draw up a second baseman that is a winner and you have Chase Utley. Jerry Manuel is trying to pump new life in Luis Castillo, saying he could bat leadoff. Utley, who is always self-motivating, is coming back from hip surgery.

Third Base

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Feliz, P.      .251  .297  .417
Wright, D.     .307  .397  .536
McPherson, D.  .228  .310  .439
Jones, C.      .322  .420  .545
Zimmerman, R.  .288  .351  .472

Sully: When you factor durability, it's hard to take Chipper Jones over David Wright but my goodness, how good is Chipper? If he can muster another excellent full season or two and steer clear of too steep of a decline phase, he has an outside chance of finishing up as the finest third baseman ever to play. Go look for yourself. It's nuts.

Rich: It is nuts. Nobody is passing Mike Schmidt anytime soon. As close as Chipper and Michael Jack are offensively, don't forget defense. Jones is a no brainer Hall of Famer but Schmidt is the best third baseman in the history of baseball.

Kevin: Look for Wright to make big-time adjustment this season as Mets are working on hitting the ball the other way in special drills designed by Manuel. Chipper is the model third baseman.

Shortstop

                AVG   OBP   SLG
Rollins, J.    .281  .343  .454
Reyes, J.      .294  .355  .456
Ramirez, H.    .306  .383  .524
Escobar, Y.    .291  .362  .409
Guzman, C.     .298  .337  .423

Sully: Not a bad one in the group, but give me the perennial MVP candidate, defensive warts and all.

Rich: Now we're talking, Sully. I love Jose Reyes but Hanley Ramirez might be the most valuable property in the game.

Kevin: Numbers don’t tell the entire story of this position. Jimmy Rollins has an inner toughness that enables him to lift his game at the most vital times. This is the Division of Shortstops. Not a bad duo for Dominican team in WBC with Reyes and Ramirez.

Left Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Ibanez, R.      .282  .346  .466
Murphy, D.      .281  .347  .438
Ross, C.        .264  .329  .483
Anderson, G.    .280  .319  .433
Willingham, J.  .264  .361  .466

Sully: Whereas the NL East is loaded with talent around the infield, it is much thinner in the outfield. I am unsure as to who the best left fielder in the division is, but I do not think that one of Raul Ibanez, Cody Ross or Josh Willingham should be the best at their position in any division! On a side note, isn't Matt Diaz better than Garret Anderson?

Rich: Aren't left fielders supposed to hit? I mean, really hit? Take the best batting, on-base, and slugging average and you only get .282/.361/.483. Yikes!

Kevin: Just think how much fun this division would be if Mets had signed Manny Ramirez. Look for Mets Daniel Murphy to establish himself this season.

Center Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Victorino, S.   .284  .345  .429
Beltran, C.     .278  .366  .502
Maybin, C.      .268  .332  .427
Anderson, J.    .283  .329  .376
Milledge, L.    .277  .345  .433

Sully: It's rare that someone joins a big market team and then becomes underappreciated but is that what we are seeing with Carlos Beltran? After his ridiculous 2004 post-season, Beltran joined the Mets and save for a lackluster first season in Flushing, has been one of the best players in baseball. He's on a HOF track.

Rich: No contest here. Beltran is the man. He's the full package, a five-tool player capable of changing games with his bat, glove, arm, or legs.

Kevin: No one has more confidence than Shane Victorino and that cannot be undersold. Beltran says his knees are healthy again. For all the money the Mets spent on Beltran, they have one playoff appearance to show for it.

Right Field

                 AVG   OBP   SLG
Werth, J.       .272  .365  .468
Church, R.      .266  .345  .448
Hermida, J.     .271  .352  .447
Francoeur, J.   .271  .319  .433
Dukes, E.       .260  .366  .458

Sully: If Elijah Dukes can stay healthy and clean up his act, the sky's the limit. He's an excellent defender with a good handle on the strike zone and solid pop.

Rich: Wow, this division really is thin in the outfield. While there is some talent in this group, it's been more promise than production thus far.

Kevin: Jeff Francouer has made some big changes in his swing. If Ryan Church falters, Mets will go out and get big-time right-fielder at the trade deadline.

Starting Pitching

Philadelphia
              W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Hamels, C.    14-8   8.42   2.35   1.13  3.36
Myers, B.     10-9   7.90   3.10   1.33  4.17
Blanton, J.   11-10  5.54   2.57   1.33  4.02
Moyer, J.     10-10  5.45   2.88   1.41  4.57
Kendrick, K.   8-8   4.44   2.87   1.45  4.81

New York
               W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Santana, J.   15-8   8.82   2.38   1.12  3.19
Maine, J.     10-10  7.78   3.81   1.34  3.99
Perez, O.     10-10  8.56   4.55   1.42  4.34
Pelfrey, M.   10-10  5.77   3.36   1.43  4.26
Garcia, F.     6-6   6.56   2.75   1.34  4.28

Florida
               W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Nolasco, R.   11-9   7.53   2.25   1.24   3.92
Johnson, J.    7-5   7.69   3.46   1.38   3.93
Volstad,C.     8-7   5.88   3.74   1.43   4.32
Sanchez, A.    6-6   7.29   4.04   1.43   4.32
Miller, A.     6-7   7.63   4.57   1.53   4.67

Atlanta
               W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA 
Lowe, D.      13-9   5.99   2.46   1.27   3.60
Vazquez, J.   13-10  8.54   2.45   1.22   3.75
Jurrjens, J.  10-8   6.73   3.28   1.36   3.93
Kawakami, K.  --------
Glavine, T.    6-6   4.94   3.62   1.51   4.81

Washington   
               W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Olsen, S.     9-12   6.45   3.47   1.44   4.66
Cabrera, D.   8-10   6.83   4.63   1.52   4.81
Lannan, S.    8-11   5.68   3.63   1.40   4.27
Hill, S.       4-5   5.69   2.76   1.41   4.32
Balester, C.   6-8   6.45   3.31   1.43   4.80

Sully: Live arms and long games in Miami this season!

Rich: While the Phillies and Mets sport the two best pitchers in the division (if not the league), don't underestimate Atlanta's starters, especially if Kenshin Kawakami is as good as his breaking ball. Derek Lowe has been underrated for far too long and Javier Vazquez's outstanding peripherals are bound to result in a better ERA in the NL than the AL.

Kevin: Johan Santana and Cole Hamels will fight it out for Cy Young. Little known Hamels fact: A former Mets farmhand named Fred Westfall was Hamels first pitching coach when he was in the Carmel Mountain Ranch Little League in San Diego and was the first to begin to teach Hamels the changeup.

Bullpen

Philadelphia
                 K/9    BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Lidge, B.      11.10    4.13   1.27   3.39
Madson, R.      7.22    2.92   1.33   4.00
Durbin, C.      6.48    3.42   1.37   4.15

New York
                 K/9    BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Rodriguez, F.  10.86    4.01   1.21   2.91
Putz, J.        9.89    3.21   1.19   3.21  
Sanchez, D.     6.94    3.51   1.35   3.94

Florida
                 K/9    BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Lindstrom, M.   7.64    3.85   1.43   4.00
Nunez, L.       7.05    2.95   1.29   3.81
Kensing, L.     8.66    4.68   1.42   4.20

Atlanta
                 K/9    BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Gonzalez, M.    9.41    3.91   1.28   3.43
Acosta. M.      7.07    4.97   1.48   4.26
Boyer, B.       7.85    3.89   1.45   4.49

Washington
                 K/9    BB/9   WHIP   ERA
Hanrahan, J.    8.74    4.19   1.43   4.10
Rivera, S.      6.73    3.85   1.44   3.98
Shell, S.       7.46    3.14   1.33   4.18

Sully: Philadelphia and New York are head and shoulders above the rest of the division, at least as we look at it at this point. Bullpens are tough to predict and maybe some arms will emerge for the other teams but for now, it is the bullpen that seems to represent the biggest area of separation between the class of the division and the also-rans.

Rich: Brad Lidge was 48-for-48 in save opportunities (including the postseason) and led all relievers in Win Probability Added last season. Get this, he has averaged 12.50 K/9 over the course of his six-year career. K-Rod and J.J. are upgrades for the Mets, at least versus the post-Billy Wagner days last season.

Kevin: K-Rod t-shirt ($28) is four dollars more than David Wright t-shirt. Omar has put his money in the bullpen to try to match up with Lidge after Mets blew 29 saves in 2008.

Bench

Sully: I like Philadelphia's bench. Ronny Paulino might help, and Geoff Jenkins could bounce back and once again pound on righties the way he had his whole career.

Rich: The benches don't look all that great to me. Look for a late free agent signing or a rookie (Jordan Schafer?) making the difference here.

Kevin: Phils seem to understand this concept better than most teams.

Who are the awards candidates from the NL East?

Kevin: The MVP and Cy Young will come out of this division, Hamels or Santana. Reyes will be in the MVP race.

Rich: Kevin may be right. The MVP and Cy Young winners could very well come from the NL East. I'd like to see Utley get his due, but I think the Mets third baseman has all the Wright stuff this year. If the Cy Young Award winner emerges from this division, look for Hamels to nab his first or Santana his third. However, Ricky Nolasco's K-BB-GB rates were just as good as those put up by Hamels and Santana last year, and there wasn't a better pitcher in the league from June 10 - through the end of the season.

Sully: There are some obvious ones in Philadelphia and New York but how about Hanley or Chipper? Hanley may need the fish to surprise to get any attention and Chipper will have to defy the medical odds but I think both are MVP caliber talents.

Any surprises this year?

Sully: Rich alluded to this above, but I think Atlanta's starting pitching allows them to hang around deep into the season.

Rich: Uggla gets traded in July and winds up in the postseason.

Kevin: Mets will not choke.

Predictions?

Rich: I will be shocked if the Phillies or Mets don't wind up on top this year. The club that finishes second will win the wild card. Let's say, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and Nationals with Florida closer to third than fifth.

Kevin:
1. Mets
2. Phils (wild card winner)
3. Atlanta
4. Florida
5. Nationals

Sully: Well isn't this boring? I think I am with both of you guys here. That looks right to me.

Thanks, Rich and thanks especially to Kevin! Until next Friday...

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"I had a friend who was a big baseball player back in High School." - Bruce Springsteen

I played high school baseball with three players who went on to play at Princeton University and others who played at smaller, Division 3 schools such as Brandeis, Williams College and Trinity College. I faced Big Leaguers Rich Hill, Mike Smith and Jonah Bayliss and was invited to participate in regional combines and team tryouts like the Area Code Games. All in all, I think I was exposed to some decent baseball.

But Jesus of Nazareth, I could not imagine facing the Long Beach Poly baseball teams of the mid 1990's with one potential future Hall of Famer, Chase Utley, and another standout, Milton Bradley, who is coming off a 163 OPS+ season. Bradley was taken in the second round of the 1996 Amateur Draft and signed immediately with the Montreal Expos. The Dodgers selected Utley in the 2nd round the very next season but Utley chose to go to UCLA instead of signing. Since, Bradley has shown flashes of greatness when he could stay on the field while Utley has had a steadier developmental timetable. He was never truly spectacular until his breakout 2005 campaign. Since, he's been as good as most any other second baseman in baseball history.

There have been other notable, productive high school teammate combos in the Major Leagues. Jason Giambi and Jeremy Giambi played alongside the late Cory Lidle, Shawn Wooten and Aaron Small at South Hills High School in West Covina, California. That's right, FIVE Major Leaguers on one high school team. Recent first rounders Mike Moustakas and Matt Dominguez played on the same team at Chatsworth High School; they were the first pair of position player teammates to be drafted in the first round since 1972, when Jerry Manuel and Mike Ondina were taken out of Rancho Cordova High School in California. High School teammates were also selected in the first round in 2002 (Scott Kazmir among them), 2000 and 1997 (including Michael Cuddyer).

Now, however, there is a new premier duo ready to take their talents to the Bigs. Baseball America released their top-100 prospects yesterday and numbers 1 and 23 batted 3 and 4 for Stratford High School in Goose Creek, SC. Matt Wieters is a 23 year-old, switch-hitting catcher who has hit .355/.454/.600 in his brief Minor League career. He might be the best player in the American League right now. Justin Smoak hit .304/.355/.518 in a brief Minor League stint after being drafted by the Texas Rangers last year but to give you a more complete sense for his potential, he is a former Cape League MVP who hit .383/.505/.757 in his final year playing for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks. Both should be contributing to their respective Major League teams this season.

Gregg Zaun currently stands in Wieters's way as the Baltimore backstop, but that won't last long. Wieters will be starting for the majority of the year. The path for Smoak is a little less clear. Chris Davis has earned a shot as the starting first baseman and Texas has moved veteran Hank Blalock to designated hitter. Smoak stands to begin the season down on the farm but will get his chance at one point or another. He will have to make the most of it if he wants to stick for good at the outset.

What I am interested in is some of the high school teammates that I am missing. Who are the best high school teammates to come out of your local area? Are there other Major Leaguers who played high school ball together going back further that I am not considering? Please feel free to share in the comments section.

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We do not like to address the topic of steroids around here. By now, it is evident that steroids played a prevalent role in the game for a significant period of time. I am not sure why anyone acts so shocked when it comes out (illegally of course, but no outrage there) that any one individual used steroids. And yet, since Saturday, to turn on your television or open your newspaper or navigate on over to your mainstream sports website of choice was to subject yourself to an endless loop of the three S's - silliness (release A-Rod!), sanctimony (what about the kids?!?!) and schadenfreude (A-Roid, A-Fraud, etc).

Anyway, we give up. Instead of continuing on with the analysis we love - a look ahead at the 2009 season, maybe some work on prospects (did you know PECOTA has Matt Wieters as the best player in the AL in 2009?!?) or even do some prep on the college season, I decided we shouldn't completely ignore the subject of steroids. While I don't think I have any incremental insight or value to add to the discussion that is taking place, I thought I would point you to some work and commentary that caught my eye.

==========

Writers at The Hardball Times had an interesting roundtable discussion on A-Rod and steroids more broadly:

Dave Studeman: My reaction is...meh. Why are we surprised that a slugger from the early part of the decade (or any time in the 1990's) took steroids? Can't we just say that lots of players took steroids, the time wasn't a good one for competitive and fair spirit, and move on? I don't have any negative reaction toward A-Rod as a result of this. In the grand scale of things, I think cheating on your wife is a much bigger lapse of ethics.

As for the union, I don't know enough to have an opinion.

Geoff Young: One of the great ironies of this witch hunt is that while it attempts to solve a problem (or more accurately, gives the *appearance* of attempting to solve a problem), the process itself has desensitized many of us. We know lots of players took steroids and at this point we just don't care.

Dave Studeman: Geoff, I don't know if you're reacting directly to my comment, but the "witch hunt" hasn't desensitized me. I've never been focused on trying to uncover the past—I've always thought it was fruitless. Clearly, lots of parties are to blame for the steroids era, and trying to pin down who did what is only useful, IMO, if it helps us better handle the future. I don't see that it does. Once it became clear that many players had taken steroids (and this has been pretty clear for a long time), I never saw the point in determining who did what.

==========

Dan Shaughnessy, God bless him, had a pretty good piece in this morning's Boston Globe. I particularly liked the part when he compared New Englanders' reaction to the A-Rod news with their reaction to the news that Rodney Harrison, the Patriots All-Pro safety, had cheated.

But why do they hate him so much in New York ("A-Fraud") and everywhere else across this great land?....

And remember how quickly New England forgave Rodney Harrison when the beloved safety explained he was just trying to get back on the field to help the team?...

Red Sox fans, gleeful over this A-Rod scandal, need to remember that there are 103 other players who tested positive in 2003. Someday, those names could be released. There's a pretty good chance that one or two of the Sox stars from 2003 will be on it. What do you say about A-Rod when that happens?

==========

To his credit, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN managed to track down Marvin Miller, the former MLBPA Union Boss. Miller, 91, is still as sharp as a tack.

On the media's role in perpetuating steroid use by referring to the drugs as "performance enhancers": "A kid who would love to be a professional athlete reads the sports pages or watches ESPN and is told over and over again, 'These are performance-enhancing drugs. They will make you a Barry Bonds or an A-Rod or a Roger Clemens.' The media, without evidence, keep telling young people all over the country, 'All you have to do to be a famous athlete with lots of money is take steroids.' The media are the greatest merchants of encouraging this that I've ever seen."

Miller also criticized the Justice Department for engaging in "union-busting tactics" by using the confidentiality provision in the drug testing to get information from players, and said many of the "experts" who advocate for greater testing in sports have an inherent conflict because they run labs and stand to profit.

"It's a witch hunt in baseball, for sure, but it also extends to cycling and the Olympics," Miller said. "And the victims are the athletes. They're obviously the ones being hunted down here."

==========

And finally, here is Dan Szymborski, creator of the ZIPS projection system. He generally sticks to numbers over at Baseball Think Factory but he chimed in on this matter with an excellent article about how we are all complicit.

For fans, the belief has always been that athletic excellence is something that an athlete should risk everything for. Playing in pain, running into walls, brutal crushing tackles, are the currency of fandom's love and abiding respect.

The famous Pete Rose-Ray Fosse collision in the 1970 All-Star Game provides a compelling example of this phenomenon. Played over and over again, fans bring this up as an example of hard-nosed play from Charlie Hustle. But the negative effects of that play still affect Ray Fosse. Nearly 40 years later, Fosse still has trouble lifting his arm on some days. His shoulder still occasionally throbs with the same pain he experienced constantly for years after that fracture...

...I dare anyone to try to name an era in sports in the last in which any semblance of purity, now suddenly demanded by the public, actually existed. By all means, please direct us to this golden time where no currently banned performance-enhancing drugs were available, but went unused by the wholesome players of yesteryear. It's certainly not the 80s or 90s or 2000s, when steroid use apparently came most popular. It certainly wasn't the 60s and 70s, when players were distributing now-banned amphetamines and starting to experiment with steroids themselves. The only difference between a slugger in 1938 and a slugger in 2008 is the quality of the goodies he can get his hands on.

==========

So there you have different takes on this situation, some commentary that stood out in a sea of talking heads feigning shock and outrage over A-Rod taking steroids. Some media members like to talk of the PR nightmare A-Rod has brought on himself (wow, wonder how that happens?!) Well the pieces linked and excerpted above managed to steer away from the emotions and take a look at this incident for what it is; something (another high profile player being outed) we should have all been able to see coming by this point.

I can't wait for the games to start.

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Raul Ibanez has been one of the most consistent offensive producers over his last three seasons in Seattle. His fielding leaves quite a bit to be desired, however, and he is entering his 37 year-old season.

Dave Ross will be 32 for the 2009 campaign. While he has shown flashes of proficiency with the bat, he has never eclipsed 350 plate appearances and has been known to struggle mightily over long stretches. Last season he was released outright by the Cincinnati Reds in August, cleared waivers and was subsequently picked up by the Red Sox.

What do these two men have in common? They were both free agents coming out of the 2008 campaign and signed a week apart from one another early on in the hot stove season - Ross with the Atlanta Braves on December 5th and Ibanez with the Philadelphia Phillies on December 12th.

Most seasons, or rather most off-seasons, two free agents receiving contracts more or less in line with what they figure to be worth would not make for interesting material. But this year, with their respective above average outfielder and dependable backup catcher peers still in the unemployment line, Ibanez and Ross (or at least their agents) come out looking awfully smart.

There happens to exist a perfectly compatible peer group for Ibanez this off-season. Outfielders Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez and Bobby Abreu, like Ibanez, are all excellent offensive performers who struggle badly with the glove. Below are their ages and what one projection system, Marcel, has in store for them in 2009 (here are links to Marcel's projection system as well as a definition of wOba thanks to FanGraphs).

          Age       Marcel Projected wOba
Dunn       29               .372            
Burrell    32               .369 
Abreu      35               .365   
Ramirez    37               .389 
Ibanez     37               .344

So how has this off-season shaken out for this group? Ibanez, who looks like the least attractive option on that list, signed for three years and a guaranteed $30 million back in early December. In January, Burrell signed for two years and $16 million with the Tampa Bay Rays. Ramirez, Abreu and Dunn remain unemployed and will not even sniff what they might have received had they jumped on initial offers that are now surely off the table.

A free agent peer group for Dave Ross does not fit quite as nicely. He is younger than many of the other back-up catchers on the market and has performed, for the most part, a bit better than them. Still, I think a group of Johnny Estrada, Pudge Rodriguez, Sal Fasano, Adam Melhuse and Toby Hall could reasonably be labeled free agent "peers" of Ross. Let's apply the same numbers as we did with the outfielders above.

          Age       Marcel Projected wOba 
Estrada    33               .305            
Pudge      37               .309 
Fasano     37               .298   
Melhuse    37               .293 
Hall       33               .281  
Ross       32               .323

In this group, Estrada, Pudge and Fasano all remain free agents, Melhuse and Hall are headed to MLB Spring Training with Minor League deals and Ross has a two-year, $3 million guaranteed contract with the Atlanta Braves. If you looked solely at the numbers above, that might make some sense but it's worth pointing out that if you consult the Fangraphs page for Ross, you see that Marcel is easily his most optimistic projection. Remember, in 2007, the year in which he played more than any other in his career, Ross posted a .203/.271/.399 line. This is not necessarily a guy who stands out from the crowd listed above. Two years guaranteed, in this market, appears to be a coup.

Like Ibanez, Ross received the contract he did at least in part because he jumped on the initial offer(s) coming his way. Whether that was the result of foresight or dumb luck nobody will ever know. But what we do know for sure is that the gettin' was good early, not so good in the middle, and now it appears that All-Star and HOF caliber players will have to suit up teams they felt were low-balling them all along; all while Raul Ibanez - Raul Ibanez! - toils care-free knowing he will be clearing $300,000 or so every couple of weeks during baseball season for the next three years.

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In his new, cutting edge and hip forum, the 3 Dot Blog, Bruce Jenkins takes up the Hall of Fame case for Jeff Kent, just as a number of other writers have since Kent announced his retirement last week. It's a casual piece and I suspect if Jenkins put more than fifteen minutes into it, he may have been able to come up with something better. Nonetheless, he makes three points that I simply can't let pass. There will come a day when professional sports writers and editors will take enough pride in their work that outright falsehoods will not make it to the pages of respected publications. Until then, those of us that like to hold the mainstream baseball media accountable from time to time in our piddly writings will never starve for material.

Here is the first Jenkins misstep.

What matters most for Kent, at least from this corner, is that he'll go down as "the greatest" at something. Doesn't matter what it is -- Sandy Koufax' fastball, Bill Mazeroski's glove, Cal Ripken's longevity -- that's a defining criterion. Kent is without question the greatest power hitter ever seen at his position, hitting 351 homers as a second baseman and 377 overall. You could make a case for many others as the best pure hitter, notably Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Frankie Frisch, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie and Charlie Gehringer. But Kent set the standard for power...

Let's set aside the flimsy standard of being "the greatest" at something means you deserve Hall of Fame enshrinement and address the contention that Kent is - "without question" mind you - the greatest power hitter to play second base. Let's keep things in the Bay Area and make an analogy. This would be like saying that Steve Young was without question the finest quarterback ever to play for the 49ers. I suppose you could make the argument if you wanted; Young is one of the best quarterbacks of all time. But he was probably not better than Joe Montana.

By the same token, Kent was indeed one of the best power hitting second basemen of all time. But to claim he is the best is to overlook so egregiously the accomplishments of Rogers Hornsby that it's hard to imagine Jenkins even took a look at their respective numbers. Here are the career slugging leaders among second basemen since 1901 with at least 6,000 career plate appearances.

               SLG
R. Hornsby    .577
J. Kent       .500
C. Gehringer  .480
T. Lazzeri    .467
J. Gordon     .466
B. Doerr      .461
R. Sandberg   .452

In his best power hitting season, Kent managed 33 home runs and a .596 slugging average. Hornsby eclipsed the .600 slugging average mark seven times and in three seasons bested Kent's career high of 33 home runs. Sure, a lot of Hornsby's slug was tied up in his unbelievable batting average (he hit .358 for his career). Still, his .219 ISO beats Kent's .210 career mark. The real differential between their respective career ISO numbers is even more drastic, as the league ISO was much higher during Kent's career than Hornsby's. To sum, there is simply no case whatsoever that Kent was a better power hitter than Rogers Hornsby. He hit more home runs, but so what?

Here is the next Jenkins remark that caught my eye.

...and if Ryne Sandberg makes the Hall (dubious choice in my mind), then Kent certainly qualifies.

Let me just state that I think Jeff Kent is probably a Hall of Famer. I have no problem with the contention that Kent deserves baseball immortality. What I object to is the iffy logic Jenkins employs here. So let's look at Sandberg on his own to see if he was in fact a "dubious choice" and then compare him to Kent to see if any Hall that includes Sandberg would simply have to open its doors to Kent as well.

Sandberg ranks 14th in career OPS+ among second basemen with at least 6,000 plate appearances. He won nine gold gloves, which admittedly loses meaning in a world where Derek Jeter and Michael Young and Rafael Palmeiro snag the honor. Nonetheless with nine to his name and thanks to other fielding metrics that quantify fielding quality, we can safely assume Sandberg was one of the finer keystone glove men during his time. Just as Bobby Grich's and Lou Whitaker's do, Sandberg's career stacks up among Hall of Fame second baseman.

Here is how Kent and Sandberg compare:

            PA    AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS+ WARP3
Sandberg   9,282 .285 .344 .452  114  108.7
Kent       9,537 .290 .356 .500  123  110.2

They're awfully close, with Sandberg's glove narrowing Kent's advantage with the bat. So I don't know which one I would have rather had on my team but to imply that Kent must go in if Sandberg is in seems to overrate Kent's career compared to Ryno's.

Finally, in sort of a throwaway line, Jenkins says the following:

The fact that he had more career RBIs than Mickey Mantle (there's something very wrong about that, but for the record: 1518 to Mantle's 1509).

Jenkins gets so close here. Yes, Bruce, there is something wrong about that. It's almost as if RBI are a completely useless measure when it comes to comparing two players!

This doesn't have much to do with the broader case for Kent that Jenkins sought to make but I thought it was pretty funny. Yes, Kent has more RBI than Mantle for his career. Just like Ruben Sierra had more RBI than Andres Galarraga in 1993.

For a great look at the merits of Jeff Kent's Hall of Fame candidacy, I would direct you to Jay Jaffe's piece at Baseball Prospectus. It explores all of the interesting aspects of Kent's career; his late start, the brutal hitter's ballpark he had most of his great years in, his defense...Jaffe concludes:

Kent was a very good player for a long time, and an often misunderstood one. His lack of charisma and his businesslike approach made him an easy target, though his humorlessness should never have been confused with a lack of passion for the game. From this vantage point, he looks to be a borderline Hall of Famer at best. Even with no particular love lost for him as a fan—one who spent years rooting against him as a Giant before settling down and appreciating his uneven virtues with the Dodgers—I'll admit that this still contradicts my gut instinct, but then that's one of the reasons for the five-year waiting period before a player reaches the ballot. Nonetheless, I strongly suspect he'll find his way into Cooperstown in due time, and if that's the case, it will hardly be the crime of the century.

Compare that writing and measured tone with Jenkins' absolutes ("without question" the best power hitter, etc).

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You can be sure that as Opening Day draws closer, Baseball Analysts will be covering each division soup to nuts. But as I write this we stand 75 days from the first pitch of the 2009 season, an occasion I notice that Buster Olney took to point out that the Cleveland Indians are poised for a bounce back (ok he wrote it 76 days ahead of Opening Day but I caught it on the 20th).

On the Tribe's off-season, in a piece called "Tribe Poised for a Turnaround" Olney writes:

And this winter, they seemingly have spent well, targeting their needs, making a couple of trades that have been deemed by rivals as nice deals. "As much as I don't believe in feeling good about winter accomplishments," said Indians general manager Mark Shapiro, "I do feel good about it."

Hey, Shapiro probably should feel good about it. He has an 85-win Pythag team coming back, and he has replaced Andy Marte with Mark DeRosa and added Kerry Wood. Those two moves should help. But also factoring into that 85-win calculus were quality contributions from partial seasons by C.C. Sabathia, Paul Byrd and Casey Blake. You can erase those from the 2009 edition of the Tribe.

Moreover, Cliff Lee will in all likelihood fall well short of his Cy Young campaign of 2008. Given the additions and subtractions that are able to reasonably be foreseen, Cleveland's season comes down to two injured players in 2008 returning to form. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez have both enjoyed superstar seasons during their careers. Unfortunately, they are both on the wrong side of 30 and counting on these two amounts to a wild card, not any sort of output that can be counted upon. And even if you think Martinez will return to form, the guy he would replace at catcher from the 2008 club, Kelly Shoppach, was excellent last season. Sure, you can move Martinez to first to spell Ryan Garko sometimes when you want to give Shoppach innings, but suddenly Martinez's superstar output becomes ordinary. A lot of first basemen can hit.

All of this makes me wonder if the Minnesota Twins aren't the clear AL Central favorites heading into 2009. The Twins fell short of the White Sox last season but they won 88 games and the Pale Hose (sorry Mr. President) seem to have taken drastic steps backwards. There will be almost no turnover on the Minnesota roster. In fact, the most notable year-over-year change is one that took place in the middle of last season. The Twins will not have to suffer through 23 starts from Livan Hernandez (5.48 ERA) in 2009.

We all know that Minnesota features three superstar level players. Joe Mauer is the best catcher in baseball, and probably one of the five best players in the game. Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are among the best at their respective positions as well. The next tier of Twins contributor features a group of players with a number of things in common. They have Big League experience, they're young and they're talented. Here are the pitchers, with their 2008 ERA+ figures listed.

                Age    ERA+
S. Baker         27    118
N. Blackburn     27    100
F. Liriano       25    104
K. Slowey        25    102
G. Perkins       26    92
B. Bonser        28    68

And the position players...

                Age    OPS+
D. Span          25    125
C. Gomez         23     79
D. Young         23    102
A. Casilla       24     94
J. Kubel         27    118

In fairness to Olney, he does not mention the Twins in his piece. For all we know, he too thinks the Twins are the team to beat. But from the tone of his article, it seems as though he believes this is a division there for the taking for Cleveland. I see it differently.

Cleveland's bull case amounts to "Hafner and Martinez are coming back" once you net out the additions and subtractions to their Big League roster. Meanwhile, Minnesota's young depth allows for more fluctuation, more margin of error, from the individual components. Minnesota is young and looking to protect a four-game Pythag record advantage from 2008 to 2009. Their core figures to improve on a net basis, a claim I am not so sure the Indians can make.

The Twins will be tough to beat in the AL Central in 2009.

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A number of years ago, Saturday Night Live ran a spoof of the ESPY Awards. It mocked the ESPY's because athletic contests, by definition, are competitions in themselves. Movies, television, theater and music are not, so it makes some sense to set up an awards ceremony to recognize the standouts. Major professional sports leagues do give out awards to individuals but even in this case, it is usually pretty easy - or rather - there exist objective measures to identify who the most deserving award recipients are. For instance, in baseball, the WPA, WARP, or Win Shares leader in any given season would be a perfectly suitable way to determine your MVP, Rookie of the Year or Cy Young pick.

But for better or worse, that is not how individual baseball honors have been awarded over the years. Instead, individuals within the electorate come up with all sorts of different definitions. "Best player on a contender." "The player with the most home runs on a playoff team." "The pitcher with the lowest ERA on a division winner." "Most RBI's." "Most wins." "Best player on a post-season qualifying team over the last two months of the season."

You get the point. Awards have prestige because they are MLB-sanctioned and have become a major aspect of baseball history but in and of themselves they are pretty meaningless. They tell you who a group of writers, some who pay close attention some who don't, some with an eye for the game some without, some knowledgeable on accurate performance metrics and some not, thinks deserves a given award as they, individually, have defined it. The awards mean nothing more, nothing less.

It should be different for the Hall of Fame. If you watched the Twins down the stretch in 2006, it would have been easy to become enamored with Justin Morneau. "All those RBI's!" "He carried them as they came back and won the AL Central!" Home Runs and RBI and extra base hits are more exciting than, say, walks or steady defense from the catcher position. But in time and upon reflection, one cannot possibly continue to hold that Morneau was better than his teammate Joe Mauer in 2006. Mauer's OBP-heavy 144 OPS+ bested Morneau's 140 number and Mauer is a FREAKING REALLY GOOD DEFENSIVE CATCHER while Morneau is a first baseman. So, in twenty years or so when it comes time to weigh Mauer's candidacy, don't tell me he only finished in the top-five in MVP voting "x" amount of times. Because he finished 6th in 2006 when he was easily the American League's best player (and on a division winner, no less).

Year after year when it comes time to vote for the Hall of Fame, the electorate - or at least the ones that come public with their ballots - cite awards results as though they have any meaning whatsoever in determining an individual's Hall worthiness.

Here's T.R. Sullivan on Bert Blyleven:

I see no Cy Young Awards and just two All-Star appearances.

And Mike Nadel, who bypasses Blyleven but votes for Jack Morris (and Jim Rice):

Jim Rice, top five in MVP voting six times in a 12-year span....Jack Morris, top 10 in Cy Young voting seven times.

Peter Gammons on Tim Raines:

My problem is that [Raines] never finished higher than fifth in the MVP balloting.

Sean McAdam on Blyleven:

For a guy who pitched 22 seasons, he received Cy Young votes in four years. Put another way, only once every five years, Blyleven was considered one of his league's 10 best pitchers. Sorry, but that doesn't exactly scream "all-time great" to me.

Or put another way, McAdam has no idea how Cy Young voting actually works. Each voter fills in his or her top three, which means that, for all McAdam knows, Blyleven was considered no worse than the fourth best pitcher in his league every single year of his career by the Cy Young voters. Anyway, you get the idea here. The electorate weighs awards voting heavily when considering who belongs in the Hall. It has to stop.

Combined, Blyleven, Raines and Alan Trammell have won ZERO Cy Young awards or MVP's. You would be hard pressed to find a Hall case against any one of the three that failed to mention that they underwhelmed their contemporary awards voters. Well let's look at some specific examples of awards voting during their playing days for an indication of how meaningful awards voting really ought to be. We will start with an award that had nothing to do with any of the players mentioned, the 1984 National League Cy Young voting.

         IP  SO   BB  K/9  K/BB  WHIP   ERA+
Sut     150  155  39  9.3  4.0   1.08   144  
Doc     218  276  73  11.4 3.8   1.07   137

Here are Rick Sutcliffe and Dwight Gooden's numbers in the National League in 1984. Cleveland dealt Sutcliffe to the Cubs mid-season and the right-hander subsequently went on to go 16-1, pitching the Cubs into their first post-season appearance in 39 years. It was a big deal. But still, look at the numbers above. I don't know; if I was a voter I would have a hard time telling who the better pitcher was. Well the electorate did not have such a difficult time. Sutcliffe won unanimously, despite strikeout numbers that paled in comparison to Doc's and only pitching part of the season in the National League. Unanimously! Were Doc Gooden a HOF candidate, and Lord knows he could have been (that's another story), that he did not win the 1984 Cy Young award would work against him according to today's prevailing wisdom amongst the electorate.

           POS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS+
Trammell   SS  .343 .402 .551  155
Bell       LF  .308 .352 .605  146

This one is great; these are the 1987 numbers for both George Bell and Trammell, who toiled for the two best teams in the AL East but Trammell's Tigers were the division winners. Both hit very well, although clearly Trammell was the better performer. Again, like the 2006 voting, in some small way it's excusable. A .600 slugging number is big, and we all take to home runs and RBI's and when your ballot is due before the playoffs start and all those long fly balls are fresh in your memory, hey, let's just say I get it. Or at least I can excuse it. It's cool. But seriously, upon reflection and knowing what we know now, can't we all agree that the solid fielding shortstop with the .402 on-base and 155 OPS+ was better than the poor fielding left fielder with the .352 on-base and a 146 OPS+? And if we can agree on that, can we not also agree then that the fact that Trammell never won an MVP should not be held against him in any way?

           POS  AVG  OBP  SLG  SB  CS  OPS+
McGee      CF  .353 .384 .503  56  16  147
Raines     LF  .320 .405 .475  70   9  151

So this is more like the first example, the 1984 NL Cy Young voting. These numbers are from 1985. I look at these two players, squint for a while and then still can't really tell who was better. Raines was the superior offensive performer but then, he was also a left fielder. He should be the better offensive producer. The two were neck-and-neck for best player in the National League in '85. Of course Willie McGee's Cardinals won 101 games and were one of the better teams of the decade while the Expos were an 84-win 3rd place team in 1985, an entirely forgettable club. So ok, McGee got the nod for MVP, probably helped in part by his team's performance. Well where did Raines finish? Twelfth! He finished twelfth in the NL MVP voting that season. Oh and for good measure, first baseman Keith Hernandez, at .309/.384/.430 (3 SB, 3 CS), finished eighth that season.

           K/9  K/BB  ERA+  Post-ERA  Post W-L
Blyleven   6.7  2.8   118     2.47     5-1         
Morris     5.8  1.8   105     3.80     7-4

We will end here in response to those who cite Morris's strong showings in CYA voting, something Blyleven was not able to do consistently. So let's just objectively compare the two pitchers. And you know what? Let's go all rate stats and post-season stats. There are some out there that want to cast aside Blyleven's career totals because they do not value longevity. "Hang around long enough and you are bound to compile some numbers." Okay, that's fine. We will ignore the 1,100 career innings pitched advantage, the 1,300 strikeouts and the 33 wins. Now look at those numbers above, rate numbers all, and tell me that Morris was superior to Blyleven. It's as preposterous a contention as I could imagine. There is no intellectually honest way to support that Morris was a better pitcher or had the better career than Blyleven. And yet Knowitalls across the country maintain that Morris was better. So when it comes time to cast HOF votes, for some like Mike Nadel and Jon Heyman and Bruce Jenkins, you know, it's not that the numbers discredit the Cy Young voting, it's the Cy Young voting that discredit the numbers and, by extension, the Hall of Fame case.

I am going to end this piece with a comment from Rich's Jon Heyman beatdown piece from Tuesday. It neatly sums up the fallacy of using awards voting for evidence of one's Hall worthiness. The remark was made by a reader named Jason, and I believe it was the 72nd comment if you want to check it out for yourself.

As for Blyleven, I saw him pitch on TV a few times as a kid (I'm within a bloop single of 40 yrs old) and never appreciated how good he was over his career until the "stat-heads" enlightened me. My perception was colored by the writers' lack of respect for BB in Cy Young voting. But there is no reason to compound ignorance with stupidity.

I can't say it any better. Indeed, "there is no reason to compound ignorance with stupidity."

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Since Jon Daniels was named Texas Rangers GM in October of 2005, the team has amassed a record of 236-245. His past trades with other Major League teams have netted the Rangers big club such luminaries as Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, John Koronka, Ron Mahay, David Murphy and Kason Gabbard. In fairness, he did trade for a couple of months of Carlos Lee and Josh Hamilton has turned into a star since becoming a Ranger. Meanwhile, he has traded away Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Francisco Cordero, Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, John Danks and Edinson Volquez. His free agent signings, outside of a one-year flier he took on Milton Bradley, have ranged from nondescript to failures.

The Rangers were a 76-win pythag team in 2008 and featured one of the worst pitching staffs in recent memory. It is also a staff that is not in any way shaping up to compete in 2009, either. Still, you might expect some improvement if for no other reason other than that they have nowhere to go but up. This would be fine and maybe they would have a shot in a weak AL West but their offense that was so good a year ago has taken a major hit. Here is how good Bradley was in 2008 (h/t B-Ref):

 Adjusted OPS+
Bradley     163
A-Rod       150
Quentin     148
Youkilis    143
Mauer       137

 Adjusted Batting Runs
Bradley          44
A-Rod            38
Morneau          36
Youkilis         36
Mauer            35

   Batting Wins
Bradley      4.1
A-Rod        3.6
Morneau      3.4
Mauer        3.3
Youkilis     3.3

   Offensive Win% 
Bradley        .765
A-Rod          .714
Youkilis       .712
Quentin        .706
Markakis       .687

Here is Sean Forman of Baseball Reference on what the latter three categories are:

Adjusted Batting Runs - This is the linear weights method pioneered by Pete Palmer. It is a bit more accurate than Runs Created and also handles differing offensive environments more easily. It is adjusted to the park and league the player played in. It is also relative to league average, so negative values mean they were below average for the league. In my calculations, I consider league average without pitchers included. See the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia for a full description.

Batting Wins - Another Pete Palmer tool, this measures the number of wins a player added relative to the league average hitter. See the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia for a full description.

Offensive Winning Percentage - This is an estimate of the winning percentage an average defense with nine of this player batting would have. As was pointed out to me, the standard formula using the league's runs scored doesn't work well for 19th century players because so many of their runs were unearned and they took lots of extra bases and the like. I'm of two minds on how to handle this. One approach is to tweak the runs created formula. Another would be to use the league runs created rather than league runs. I have done the latter, so now we use the sum of the league's runs created to calculate offensive winning percentage.

You get the point. Bradley was absolutely terrific last season and will not be a part of the 2008 squad. The news is not all bad for the Rangers offense, however. Taylor Teagarden, Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis are all set for their first full seasons of Big League ball. Here is how the trio fared for Texas in 2008, with their Minor League numbers included.

           2008 PA        MLB             MiLB 
Teagarden    53     .319/.396/.809   .267/.390/.509         
Cruz        133     .330/.421/.609   .298/.367/.539
Davis       317     .285/.331/.549   .302/.357/.595

The rest of the Rangers position players look strong at the plate, too.

            Pos.      2008 OPS+ 
Kinsler      2B          134
Blalock      3B          121
Young        SS           96
Murphy       LF          106
Hamilton     CF          136

With Frank Catalanotto or Jarrod Saltalamacchia ready to fill the position that Bradley vacates, designated hitter, the Rangers should have some concerns there. Recent rumblings indicate that Texas might make a play for Bobby Abreu or even Manny Ramirez, which would improve this offense but probably not get it all that close to where it was in 2008. The Rangers MLB-leading .329 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) portends regression whether they can somehow replicate Bradley's productivity or not.
But the offense wasn't the problem. The starters ERA in 2008 was 5.51, the relievers 5.15 and the team road ERA (lest you think that Arlington was the problem) was 5.26. Meanwhile, Daniels has done very little to address his team's pitching woes. This gets me back to the beginning of the article. Fairly or not, Daniels has to be on a short leash. Nolan Ryan, who I am going to assume is both something of a purist and deferential to a roster that does not feature the very worst pitching staff in baseball, is Daniels' boss.

So what can Daniels do? He needs to make the case that the Rangers are well-positioned for the future, make a good trade (probably with the Red Sox) for Saltalamacchia or Teagarden and hope that his youngsters at the Major League level affirm the notion that the Rangers future is bright. Because at the Minor League level, there can be no disputing this. In Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak and Elvis Andrus, Texas boasts three of baseball's best prospects. And the Rangers system is not top-heavy by any means. Here is John Sickels:

The Rangers have three of the best prospects in baseball, several others who project as major league regulars, and a whole bevy of Grade C+ type guys, some of them breakout candidates for higher grades next year. I love the way they have run this farm system in recent years: they have mixed raw and polished talent in the draft, and have made a big push in Latin America. The Rangers are looking at every source of talent: college, high school, other countries, guys with tools, guys with skills. The result is a system with both depth and breadth, and the future of this organization is quite bright.

And that's the thing I (intentionally) omitted in the first paragraph. For all of Daniels failure in wheeling and dealing at the Major League level, he has managed to draft very well, bolster his organization's presence in Latin America and stockpile young talent when dealing established Major Leaguers. He netted Andrus, Engel Beltre, Saltalamacchia, Cruz and other promising assets in deadline deals.

With an unexpectedly large bounce in their pitching performance in 2009, the Rangers may have an outside shot at competing in a weak division this season. But in all likelihood this will be a lost season. If Nolan Ryan can hang in there with Daniels, see how his youngsters perform in 2009, monitor his trade decisions and trust he has learned from past mistakes, it may turn out that he would be best served standing up to external pressures to let Daniels go.

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Both the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox lost out on the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes and are now left to figure out which roster tweaks remain both available and viable this off-season. In itself, not going to $180 million, $190 million, $200 million for Tex's services is perfectly defensible but that does not change the notion that if you are not improving while teams around you are, you're effectively getting worse. For both teams to maintain the competitive advantages they have enjoyed for the last handful of seasons, they would be wise to consider other options.

One player that both teams might consider is Adam Dunn. He is the same age as Teixeira and has experience at first base. This piece will go into some depth comparing the two to see if the Angels or Red Sox should consider Dunn, who will be available at a fraction of Teixeira's cost. Dunn has indicated he would like to play right field for the Cubs and the Dodgers have now reportedly turned their attention from Manny Ramirez to Dunn, but perhaps those teams that were so hot for Teixeira should hop into the bidding for Dunn's services as well.

There is one item to get out of the way before we dive in. Dunn has been an absolutely awful outfielder. Interestingly, four of the remaining corner outfield free agents this off-season are four of the worst fielders in all of baseball. Dunn, Ramirez, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are all terrible with the glove. Thanks to Fangraphs, here are their average UZR/150 figures for the past three seasons.

         UZR/150
Dunn     -16.6
Abreu    -14.9
Ramirez  -19.4
Burrell  -17.5

UZR/150 is defined on the site as follows:

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

That Dunn has been so terrible in the field is an important point because it dramatically hampers his overall value as a player when you consider him for an outfield position. This is why, if you want to compare Tex (a terrific defensive first baseman) and Dunn in terms of, say, Baseball Prospectus' WARP or Fangraphs' Value Wins, you see that the numbers pretty drastically favor Tex. So for the purposes of this exercise, or at least initially, we are going to stick to offense (we will circle back to Dunn's first base defense in a little bit).

Let's start with a look at each player's career batting numbers.

        AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+  OWP  
Dunn   .247  .381  .518  130  .670 
Tex    .290  .378  .541  134  .673

Readers of this site do not need a tutorial on OPS+ but some may not be familiar with Offensive Win Percentage which, most simply, means the percentage of games your team would win if it consisted of nine of that given player, assuming average run prevention on the same team.

As you can see, there is not much difference here. But let's dig in a little more. Pictured below is a comparison of Tex and Dunn by wOBA (weighted on base average), a number created by Tom Tango to improve upon OPS by appropriately weighting on-base and then scaling it to league average on-base (like how EQA does the same with batting average). After the graph, I list each of their figures starting in 2003, because that was Tex's rookie season:

wOBA    
       Dunn    Tex
2003   .353   .345
2004   .403   .389
2005   .391   .405
2006   .365   .374
2007   .399   .406
2008   .383   .410

And how about the last three seasons, an arguably more reliable indicator of future performance?

       AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+
Dunn  .244  .379  .518  126 
Tex   .298  .393  .541  141

Teixeira clearly outperforms Dunn when you look at their three-year numbers, but just as we did with the wOBA numbers, let's once again have a look at their numbers since 2003:

       AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+
Dunn  .245  .379  .525  131 
Tex   .290  .378  .541  134

The narrowing is attributable to a few factors. For one, Dunn was terrific in 2004 (146 OPS+) and not so great in 2006 (114 OPS+). Adding his 2004 numbers is worthwhile because a 24 year-old who puts up such a great season is in all likelihood capable of doing it again at 29. This should be taken into consideration by incorporating more data; three-year splits omit Dunn's best work. And just so readers are clear that I am not cherry-picking, Dunn had a mediocre 2003 as well, which is accounted for. For Teixeira's part, his three-year numbers favor him because he has been consistent for much of the three years, and then went nuts as an Angel. If you run his numbers from Opening Day 2006 through his last game as an Atlanta Brave, his line is .286/.373/.536. Add in his Angels stretch of .358/.449/.632 and you get the three-year numbers above, .298/.393/.541. We don't want to eliminate these numbers. They happened, after all. What we want to do is bring in more data, so we note the numbers going back to 2003 and observe that there isn't a whole lot of difference between the two players offensively.

To be sure, there are stylistic differences between the two players. For one, Teixeira hits for more average and therefore will be a better RBI-man. Dunn walks more, and will therefore see more pitches per plate appearance. And here are their differences versus lefties and righties:

          vs. RHP        vs. LHP
Dunn  .252/.398/.539  .235/.359/.474
Tex   .281/.371/.541  .309/.393/.541  

Tex is a switch hitter and remarkably consistent from both sides. This will offer the Yankees tactical advantages, as opposing managers will not be able to use their bullpen to match-up against Tex in later innings. On the other hand, though his productivity is still respectable, Dunn falls off against lefties. But most pitchers are right-handed, and Dunn enjoys a considerable advantage over Tex in this department.

There exists, relative to Tex, limited data on Dunn's ability to play first base.

Fielding as 1B
       Games  Innings   UZR/150
Dunn    127     891.2   -12.5 
Tex     853   7,345.2     3.5    

Clearly Tex has been better, say a full win per season better, but what if Dunn were to play there more regularly? Isn't it conceivable that he could improve his first base glove work with more consistent play at the position? I don't think that he would ever catch Teixeira, but I think he could be within a win of him over the course of a season.

The case for Dunn hinges on four different points. First, as shown above, Teixeira and Dunn are very much comparable hitters. Tex was unreal down the stretch in 2008 and Dunn was mediocre in 2006 but if you go even further back - their numbers since 2003, their career numbers - you can see that there isn't much difference in productivity between them.

Second, while Dunn is a notoriously bad defensive player, he has earned the lion share of that reputation while toiling in the outfield. He is not a very good first baseman either but a couple of points warrant mentioning regarding his first base defense. There is a much narrower band between the worst and the best first baseman than there is for, say, the worst and best shortstop or even the worst and best right fielder. Relatively speaking, first base defense is of marginal importance. Moreover, it's likely that Dunn would improve at first if he got more regular time there.

Third, Dunn is known to be a laid back guy with a questionable work-ethic and desire to be the best he can be. This is important because he is currently a free agent, and teams need to perform their diligence in order to determine if he would be a worthwhile hire. So if I am the Red Sox, I say "We understand that you have been in Cincinnati for all of these years. Maybe you let your weight slip at times, maybe you didn't dig it out all the time on the base paths, maybe you lolligagged for a blooper or two here and there. But we still think you have the ability to be special. Will you join the reining AL MVP and Kevin Youkilis during the off-season at Athletes Performance Institute in Tempe? Because if you do, or if you make a similar commitment off the field, you will be a hero here in Boston."

And then just sit back. See what he has to say and make a judgment call. Corporations, Law Firms, Medical Facilities and just about any other entity that competes in some form or another has to make judgment calls on their talent. If Dunn lost 25 pounds and took 1,000 ground balls a day in the off-season, I think many would agree that he could be a top-tier MLB performer. Dunn's natural athleticism cannot be questioned; he was once recruited to be a quarterback at The University of Texas. He can become a decent first baseman. But I do think that signing Dunn would have to hinge on the belief that he would commit to being the best he could be.

Finally, teams need to take value into consideration. It's likely that the team that nets Dunn this off-season will do so for half as many years as Tex demanded and at an annual salary that is also half of what Tex signed for. From what I can see, when you take all of these components together, maybe Dunn would be a viable Plan B.

How does Dunn fit in with the contending teams that missed out on Teixeira? Rich Lederer emailed me regarding how it might play out with the Angels and had the following to say:

Dunn Could DH for the Angels and play occasionally in left or at first. Vladimir Guerrero in RF, Juan Rivera in LF, Kendry Morales at 1B, and Dunn at DH would be the way to go but Dunn could also play LF (allowing Rivera to DH or give Vlad a day off in RF) or 1B (with Morales serving as the DH). Gary Matthews could back all of them up, playing a corner outfield spot or DH'ing.

All that said, my sense is that Dunn is not a Mike Scioscia type. As such, I don't see the Angels signing him.

I think that all sounds about right. But how about the Red Sox? They were ready to trade Mike Lowell when they were in the running for Tex and there is no reason to believe that still wouldn't be the case with Dunn. Lowell is fragile, and has had all of one productive season in the last four or so. Dunn could play first with Youkilis at third. What makes this option even more interesting is that if Boston decides they do not want to re-sign Youkilis or pick up David Ortiz's option after the 2010 season, they have a new 1B/DH combo ready to go. Lars Anderson, who hit .316/.436/.526 finishing up the season in AA Portland last season, would be ready to assume first base duties. Dunn could move to DH. If Boston wanted to re-up Youkilis, he could still play third. Given personnel choices coming down the pike, adding Dunn would seem to make sense for Boston.

Make no mistake, Adam Dunn is not Mark Teixeira. He is not quite the hitter and he is most definitely not the defensive asset that Tex is. But the decision comes down to this. If you were willing to go more or less all-in on Tex, if he was your guy this off-season and you were ready to pony up nearly $200 million for eight years (and trade the 2007 World Series MVP in the process), how can you be uninterested in even kicking the tires on Dunn at a quarter of the total financial outlay, half the contract duration and half the annual salary? Make me Boston's GM and this is an option that I would be pursuing aggressively.

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We conclude the SWOT series today with a look at the AL East. To my eye it's the best division in baseball but NL East, NL Central or AL Central fans might disagree. The Rays are coming off a breakout year, the Yanks are reloading, Boston looks strong again and who knows? Maybe this off-season's prize will end up in Baltimore?

Tampa Bay Rays

Strengths: The Rays starting pitching looks remarkable. James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza all made names for themselves last post-season, while uber-talent David Price steps in for the 2009 season. Their least promising starter is 26 and threw 193 innings at a 102 ERA+ clip in 2008.

Weaknesses: Jonny Gomes is currently penciled in as the Rays designated hitter. He is a career .235/.329/.455 hitter who has been declining ever since a strong 2005 season. Tampa Bay would be well served to take a long look at Milton Bradley or Jason Giambi for the position.

Opportunities: The Rays have a number of guys who are on the verge of stardom. To highlight just one, B.J. Upton walked 97 times last season but didn't find his power stroke until the post-season, when he hit seven home runs and slugged .652. Look for him to put it together this season.

Threats: While the Rays offensive core of Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Upton is capable of shouldering the load for a championship level offense, there is a chance that the Rays get nothing from DH, their corner outfielders, shortstop and catcher (Dioner Navarro had OPS+ seasons of 70 and 79 before last year).

Boston Red Sox

Strengths: Each Boston infielder currently set to start in 2009 will probably be, at worst, a top-5 producer at their respective positions. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis each had MVP-caliber seasons in 2008, while Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell stand out thanks to a thin crop of AL players at their positions as much as their own ability. Adding Mark Teixeira would enhance this strength of course.

Weaknesses: It is quite possible that Justin Masterson or Clay Buchholz develop into perfectly acceptable options in the rotation for the championship-aspirant Red Sox. But when you look now and see Tim Wakefield and Masterson rounding out their starting staff, it does pose concerns, particularly when you consider Josh Beckett's injury history and Daisuke Matsuzaka's imminent return to earth.

Opportunities: Getting Lowrie a full season under his belt will finally, for the first time since 2004 or so, give the Red Sox a very good option at shortstop. Also, the set-up trio of Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and the newly acquired Ramon Ramirez will stabilize the bullpen from the outset.

Threats: Aren't the following all possible? J.D. Drew misses 50 games. Jacoby Ellsbury still isn't what Boston hoped he would be. Pedroia and Youkilis each bat .290. Mike Lowell battles injuries all season long. David Ortiz just isn't what he used to be. Jason Varitek is back as Boston's catcher.

The point is, Boston's depth is a problem right now. Fortunately for them, we have a long way to go this off-season.

New York Yankees

Strengths: Look at this rotation. If C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett combine for 440 innings, if Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain are healthy and Phil Hughes finds his form, then the Yankees might find themselves back on top in the East.

Weaknesses: Those slugging Yanks we have come to know over the years are taking on a different look. And by "taking on a different look" I mean considering going into 2008 with Johnny Damon and Brett Gardner both manning starting outfield spots. New York is losing its second and third best hitters from 2008 (Giambi and Bobby Abreu) to free agency. Maybe Manny Ramirez can save what was an average offense last year.

Opportunities: Moving into a new stadium and with a lot of payroll coming off the books, New York has taken advantage of even more financial flexibility than they have enjoyed over the last few years.

Threats: There are health concerns in this rotation that could quickly sink the Yanks' hopes in a competitive AL East. All of the current starters except for Sabathia have missed significant time over the last few seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays

Strengths: With a team ERA+ of 122, the Jays featured one of the best pitching staffs they have ever fielded in 2008. A.J. Burnett and Shaun Marcum are gone, but Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond and Dustin McGowan form a nice core in the rotation. The bullpen returns more or less in place from last season.

Weaknesses: It is difficult to see where any productivity will come from in the infield. Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen are not really an acceptable corner infield combo, while there are even more questions concerning the likes of Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill and Joe Inglett. And don't get me started on John McDonald.

Opportunities: Toronto has an open rotation slot and it will be interesting to see how they fill it. Both Casey Janssen and David Purcey have a chance to be quality MLB starters. They will compete for the spot in Spring Training next March.

Threats: With financial problems plaguing the Jays, an aging offensive core not getting any better and free agent defections hampering the pitching staff, threats abound for this club. It seems like their window is closing.

Baltimore Orioles

Strengths: Baltimore has a top-heavy offense with a number of good players. Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis are both terrific, while Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora and Luke Scott figure once again to be productive. There is an offensive core there.

Weaknesses: The pitching is just so bad. Let me list out their current depth chart as ESPN presents it:

Starting Pitcher:: Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Waters, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, Garrett Olson

Relief Pitcher: George Sherrill, Jamie Walker, Jim Johnson, Kam Mickolio, Dennis Sarfate, Jim Miller

Opportunities: Matt Wieters is a career .365/.460/.625 Minor Leaguer. Just give him the catcher job already. And man, if they sign Teixeira, the average Orioles game might be five hours long in 2009.

Threats: Huff, Mora and Roberts are all on the wrong side of thirty and will be counted upon to anchor Baltimore's only hope, their offense. Should these three fall short of expectations due to age or injury, Baltimore could be truly awful.

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2008 was supposed to be a two-team battle between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians. Cleveland had been to the 2007 ALCS and Detroit, already a strong club, added Miguel Cabrera, one of the most productive young hitters in baseball history. It was a two-team race all right, but it ended up being the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins dueling it out. Let's see how everyone is looking at this point.

Chicago White Sox

Strengths: The Sox have a trio of both starters and relievers who anchored their excellent pitching staff in 2008 and will be counted upon to do so once again in 2009. Here is how these six pitchers performed last year.

             IP    H   BB   SO    ERA+
Buehrle    218.7  240  52   140   121
Danks      195.0  182  57   159   138
Floyd      206.3  190  70   145   119
Jenks       61.7  51   17   38    174
Thornton    67.3  48   19   77    171
Dotel       67.0  52   29   92    122

A 7.18 K/9 would be acceptable as a team figure but when it is the top six pitchers on a staff that post that number, it gives me a little pause. Still, these six are a clear strength for Chicago.

Weaknesses: It's hard to see how this offense will muster a passable attack in 2009 barring a free agent pick-up or two. Paul Konerko and Jim Thome are not getting any younger and Jermaine Dye, the one other good hitter on the team not named Carlos Quentin, has been the subject of trade rumors (Dye himself is 35). Outside of these four names, it is hard to see where the productivity will come from.

Opportunities: With the core of his team aging, Kenny Williams would be wise to consider trading some of these pieces to get younger. Having already dealt Nick Swisher and Javier Vazquez, there are indications he is thinking this way.

Threats: Age and drop-off from the pitching staff could hamper Chicago's chances this season. It's a fascinating roster, one that might be able to compete for the division if all goes well this year. It is also a roster with a very small window. Either they win with this team this season, lose with this team this season (and thus their assets lose value) or they take what they have now and get younger. It will be fun to watch.

Minnesota Twins

Strengths: For the first time since 1997, Minnesota had a better OPS+ than ERA+. Joe Mauer's .399 OBP ranks third in the history of baseball among catchers with 2,000 career plate appearances. He's 26 and seems to be coming into his own after a hiccup 2007 campaign.

Weaknesses: Minnesota's biggest weakness is uncertainty in the starting rotation. The range of potential performance outcomes with this staff is probably wider than any other in baseball. They are all young and well regarded, but some combo of inconsistency and injuries have slowed them all down so far in each of their careers.

Opportunities: Man, if Francisco Liriano could ever return to his 2006 form (207 ERA+ at the age of 22!), Minnesota starts to look more like a front-runner than a team that could win the AL Central if things go right.

Threats: The Twins gave Nick Punto a 2-year, $8.5 million contract. This indicates to me that he will be playing everyday for them over the next two years. Punto had a nice season in 2008, but he is also one year removed from a 52 OPS+ year in 2007.

Cleveland Indians

Strengths: You want to see the list of center fielders with a career OPS+ at 125 or better through their age-25 season (min 2,500 plate appearances)?

           OPS+
Mantle     174
Speaker    166
DiMaggio   156
Mays       153
Griffey    147
Cedeno     132
Sizemore   125
Snider     125

Cesar Cedeno aside, that's some baseball royalty right there. So yeah, Grady Sizemore is a strength for the Indians.

Weaknesses: Outside of Cliff Lee, a most deserving Cy Young candidate, Cleveland's starting pitching was terrible last season. Trading C.C. Sabathia did not help, of course.

Opportunities: If Ryan Garko, Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner can perform anything like they did at their peaks, then man, this team will be right back in the thick of things. On the pitching side, Scott Lewis will be a compelling addition to the rotation.

Threats: Garko, Martinez and Hafner may not bounce back. Martinez and Hafner are battling injuries and Garko's sub-.400 slugging percentage is a real red flag.

Kansas City Royals

Strengths: The lineup was bad in 2008, with a couple of holes and inadequate production from some of their stars. They have addressed the holes; not necessarily with stars but they will no longer have a 79 OPS+ guy at first base or a 59 OPS+ guy in center field. Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp are not superstars but they are both perfectly adequate performers on an aspirant club.

Also, check out the year Joakim Soria had last season.

Weaknesses: Oh, let's just pick a few. Jose Guillen, his bloated salary, his .300 OBP and his bad attitude would all be good places to start. Brian Bannister unfortunately coming back down to earth would be another. That the organization lacked the good sense to steer clear of handing Brett Tomko the baseball was a weakness.

Opportunities: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar have the ability to anchor a capable staff. If the three can perform consistently in 2009, the Royals may have a chance at pushing for .500.

Threats: Kyle Davies and Bannister probably don't belong in a Major League rotation. Shortstop Mike Aviles had a terrific season in 2008 but will be hard-pressed to bat .325 again.

Detroit Tigers

Strengths: Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen combine to constitute a dependable outfield. Ordonez is a prolific slugger, Guillen consistent and Granderson has emerged as one of the game's best all around players.

Weaknesses: Somehow this pitching staff just won't come together. Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman were both great disappointments in 2008 and finally, Kenny Rogers just sucked. Nate Robertson's 6.38 ERA (70 ERA+) didn't help.

Opportunities: Verlander and Bonderman still have terrific stuff and could just as easily turn in terrific seasons in 2009 as they did disappointing ones last year. I think getting Zach Miner a season's worth of starts and Edwin Jackson should provide an upgrade over Rogers and some of the other starters they tried to cobble together last year.

Threats: While the lineup looks solid and it's not difficult to come up with a scenario in which Detroit's starters are once again good, the bullpen looks terrible. Losing Todd Jones may amount to addition by subtraction but the two anchors of their relief staff, Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, have battled too many injuries to be considered dependable. Still, the off-season is young and the Tigers may yet address this issue.

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The Los Angeles Angels ran away with the AL West in 2008 but are they far-and-away the best team again coming into this season? Hard to say. Losing Mark Teixeira, or at least failing to replace him with another top-notch offensive producer, may not be as tolerable as some might think. Despite winning 100 games, the Angels were just an 88-victory Pythag team. Perhaps recognizing a newly vulnerable division rival, the A's seem to be making moves to gear up for a division challenge.

Let's have a look at how things are shaking down in the division as of mid-December.

Los Angeles Angels

Strengths: Of all the catchers in Major League Baseball who notched at least 250 plate appearances in 2008, Mike Napoli led the majors with an OPS+ of 147. I am not sure he qualifies as "flying under the radar" at this point given his .250/.400/.750 ALDS against the Red Sox, but Mike Scioscia has a nice lever at his disposal in that he can make up for a lot of lost production simply by getting Napoli into the lineup more often.

Weaknesses: Age and health in the outfield and at DH may pose problems for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Matthews, Jr and Torii Hunter all seem to be on the decline. This might be ok if there were a clear candidate in the infield to step up and carry more of the water. Minus Teixeira, it's hard to see who that could be.

Opportunities: Getting a full, healthy season from each of John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver should position the Angels to improve upon their 2008 starting pitching output, even if some drop-off from Joe Saunders can be expected.

Threats: The biggest threat to the Angels this off-season is that they fail to replenish the offense. Manny Ramirez could fit and they would love to bring back Teixeira. Short of one of these two, they would be wise to check out the middle market. Someone like Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell would help, too.

Texas Rangers

Strengths: Thanks to the hitter friendly confines of their home ballpark, the Texas Rangers almost always seem to be among the league leaders in runs scored. This has earned them the reputation as a good hitting team and a bad pitching one, a logical (if lazy) enough conclusion. Well in 2008, it really held true. The Rangers offense was their finest in recent memory, better even than the Pudge/Juan-Gone glory days offenses. Their team OPS+ of 115 comfortably led the American League.

Weaknesses: One would be hard pressed to overstate how awful their pitching was. Their starters had an ERA of 5.51 while their relievers only fared slightly better, at 5.15. Their team ERA of 5.26 on the road should dispel any notion that the staff was decent, but hampered by their home ballpark. No, they were just awful.

Opportunities: With depth at catcher, the Rangers have the potential to add some young arms. They have already dealt Gerald Laird for high-strikeout prospect Gullermo Moscoso. What would the Red Sox give up for Taylor Teagarden or Jarod Saltalamacchia?

Threats: Milton Bradley posted a .321/.436/.521 line in 2008 and was the biggest reason the Rangers offense was as potent as it was. He is a free agent but even if they bring him back, it is hard to see how Bradley would match that output in 2009.

Oakland Athletics

Strengths: The A's biggest strength, and the reason they were able to pry away Matt Holliday, is their bullpen. Combined in 2008, Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler allowed 10 earned runs in over 105 innings of work. Anything that comes close to approximating that sort of performance for Oakland will once again position them to have a terrific bullpen, even without Huston Street.

Weaknesses: Oakland's offense was just terrible in 2008. Just one regular, Jack Cust, managed to slug over .400 for Oakland last season. Holliday will help, but he will need support from guys like Eric Chavez, Travis Buck and Daric Barton if the offense is to perform at a level that allows them to contend.

Opportunities: The A's have a chance at a good rotation if Gio Gonzalez and Sean Gallagher - uber-talents both - can begin to fulfill their potential.

Threats: Have Billy Beane's wheeling and dealing ways caught up with him? Having stockpiled the farm system last year after trading away guys like Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Rich Harden, this season it looks like Beane would like to take aim at the Angels and complement his youngsters with more established talent. It works in the abstract, but when guys on the open market don't want to join your team, the strategy can be a problem.

Seattle Mariners

Strengths: As David Cameron noted in this piece, trading J.J. Putz gave Seattle perhaps the best outfield defense of any team in baseball.

By acquiring Gutierrez and Chavez, the M’s just have given themselves the ability to run out one of the best outfield defenses in baseball on days where they send a contact pitcher to the hill. A Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield will make Silva and Washburn look significantly better than they really are, and by investing in the defense, the M’s have made it possible that they could salvage some value from a pair of bad contracts.

With their bad pitch-to-contact pitching staff, the more defense the better. Jack Zduriencik's first major move reflected an ability to align team strengths and weaknesses with subsequent roster constructions strategy that M's fans have not seen in some time.

Weaknesses: This team is just so bad. Their one good hitter from 2008, Raul Ibanez, is now a Phillie. Not that they should have signed Ibanez but when your one truly productive hitter from an already bad offense takes off, the next season can look daunting. The Mariners will need step-up seasons from Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Kenji Johjima. All are capable of better seasons than what they posted in 2008.

Opportunities: Wladimir Balentien has a history of Minor League productivity, so I think the Mariners can feel comfortable that he will be better than he was in 2008. Of non-catchers with more than 250 plate appearances, only Andy Marte posted a worse OPS+ in the American League. Another easy opportunity for the M's to improve would be for Erik Bedard to turn in a healthy season. Jeff Clement and a full season of Brandon Morrow in the rotation (if he is indeed given that shot) could provide additional upside. Clement and Morrow were Seattle's first-round picks in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

Threats: Seattle had fewer wins than any other Mariners team in a non-strike shortened season since 1978. I would say that there is not much threatening a team that has nowhere to go but up.

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With the NL Central and NL East in the books, it is now time to turn our attention to the NL West. It only took 84 wins to take the division last season, so a shrewd tweak here or there (read: not Edgar Renteria) could catapult just about anyone into contention.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Strengths: Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo and Cory Wade, who combined contributed over 220 innings of top-notch relief, all return to anchor what was one of the very best bullpens in the National League. Los Angeles is taking on free agent losses all over their roster this off-season but one area Ned Colletti can feel comfortable leaving alone is his relief pitching.

Weaknesses: Manny Ramirez posted a 219 OPS+ with the Dodgers and was the chief reason their offense went from atrocious to one of the very best. There is a chance he may be back but his departure would leave a gaping hole int their offensive attack. Similarly on the pitching side, Derek Lowe's imminent signing with someone other than Los Angeles is going to be a real blow to their staff. Over the length of his contract with the Dodgers, Lowe averaged 212 innings and in his worst ERA+ year, he still managed 114. Despite his reputation as a solid innings eater, Lowe is much, much more. Last year's 211 innings of 131 ERA+ pitching will not be easy to replace.

Opportunities: The 2006 Jason Schmidt would do the trick in replacing Lowe and even though that may seem like an unlikely proposition, it also could be the Dodgers best hope.

Threats: As of today, Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones will start in the outfield for Los Angeles. It cannot be overstated just how much these two devastated their offensive attack in 2008. Pierre hit .283/.327/.328 last year, with 79% of his plate appearances coming before August 1. Jones hit .158/.256/.249 with all but 14 of his plate appearances taking place before the trade deadline. While Manny's arrival was doubtless the catalyst for the Dodgers late-season offensive improvement, replacing Pierre and Jones helped a whole lot as well.

        OPS
APR    .769
MAY    .668
JUN    .644
JUL    .704
AUG    .783
SEP    .815

Arizona Diamondbacks

Strengths: Anchored by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the Snakes should once again feature terrific starting pitching. Despite throwing half their games in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments, Diamondbacks starters ended the season with the NL's third best starting pitching ERA. While Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit are unproven at the Big League level, they should have no problem replicating the combined output of Randy Johnson and Micah Owings in 2008.

Weaknesses: A lineup that was supposed to all rise up as one and become Major League standouts in 2008 decided to put it off a year. Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Conor Jackson and Justin Upton - potential superstars all - did not hit the way the D-Backs needed them to in 2008 in order for them to repeat as division champs. Until a couple of them step up and show they can anchor a championship caliber offense, the offense will remain a weak spot.

Opportunities: I have already mentioned them. Scherzer, Petit and the young offensive core all have the ability to develop into terrific Major League contributors. Should a handful of these guys get there in 2009, Arizona will be contenders again.

Threats: Signing Felipe Lopez to take over for free agent Orlando Hudson was a savvy enough, under-the-radar move. Still, Lopez has put up some dud seasons (.245/.308/.352 in 2007) and asking him to fill in for one of baseball's most consistent second basemen in Hudson may be too tall an order.

Colorado Rockies

Strengths: Guess who is the same age as, plays the same position as, and had better rate statistics than 2008's National League Rookie of the Year? Chris Iannetta of the Rockies, a 25-year old who seems like he might be one of the better catchers in baseball for years to come. A solid defender with great command at the plate, here is how he stacked up in 2008 amongst NL Catchers with at least 300 plate appearances.

           OPS+
McCann     134
Doumit     128
Iannetta   127
Soto       120
Martin     106
Snyder     103

Weaknesses: Colorado ranked 14th in National League Defensive Efficiency in 2008.

Opportunities: Bounce back from Troy Tulowitzki and Garrett Atkins, combined with more playing time for Ian Stewart, should make the infield offense (ex Todd Helton) much more productive. On the pitching side, Jeff Francis should be better, Greg Smith should add some depth and with a tick or two more command, Jorge de la Rosa (128 K's in 130 IP) should emerge.

Threats: Carlos Gonzalez replacing Matt Holliday could kill this offense, and I am afraid that Todd Helton will not be posting another 144 OPS+ season.

San Francisco Giants

Strengths: Tim Lincecum won the CYA in just his second MLB season. Matt Cain, who is even younger than Lincecum, also had a very nice 2008 campaign. Any hope the Giants have for 2008 rests with these two. Not Edgar Renteria; their hopes don't rest with him.

Weaknesses: Their offense was the weakest in the division and help does not appear to be imminent. Starters not named Cain or Lincecum took to the hill 95 times for the Giants in 2008 and posted a 5.32 ERA while playing home games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks around.

Opportunities: If Aaron Rowand can return to form, with Fred Lewis and Randy Winn flanking him, the outfield offense might not be too bad.

Threats: If Lincecum or Cain falter at all, San Francisco's season is finished. To their credit they hung in there for much of 2008 but that was in large part due to their won-loss in games started by Lincecum.

San Diego Padres

Strengths: When you don't adjust for park, you might think that San Diego's offense is a big problem for them. This is just not the case. They are about average at the plate, thanks to standouts Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles, and some nice supporting parts as well.

Weaknesses: The starting pitching, especially if they end up dealing Jake Peavy, is scary bad. Chris Young would assume the number one role and after that, it is hard to see how they can cobble together anything even resembling a Big League staff. The rebuilding process for the Padres, especially given the confusing way their front office seems to operate, figures to be a long and painful one.

Opportunities: If Kevin Kouzmanoff can fulfill his potential and Young can toss 200 innings, that should help bump the Padres up from their 63-win total in 2008. Chase Headley starting from the outset should help, too.

Threats: I have a hard time seeing how Luis Rodriguez, a career .257/.316/.343 hitter, is a viable Major League option as an everyday shortstop, but maybe I am missing something. It's nice to help the bullpen and all, and however frustrating he may have been at times because he was not living up to expectations, the fact remains Khalil Greene was a pretty good player.

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Every year as the Hall-of-Fame vote nears, the debates over certain players intensify. As part of this tradition over the last few years, you can set your watch to a Dan Shaughnessy mail-in supporting the candidacy of Jim Rice. Shaughnessy's case for Rice and, in fairness, almost any writer's case for Rice, invariably contains the same three components.

One, there is a baseless assertion that Rice was "feared."

Shaughnessy, from yesterday's Boston Globe:

Rice was dominant. Rice was feared.

From The Boston Globe, January 9, 2008

He was more feared than Tony Perez, who is in the Hall of Fame.

I doubt Dan took the time to actually look into it but Perez was intentionally walked almost twice as many times as Rice was in his career.

In fact, when I look at this article from Shaughnessy from December of 2007, I know he didn't look into it.

People who played and watched major league baseball from 1975-86 know that Rice was the most feared hitter of his day. Managers thought about intentionally walking him when he came to the plate with the bases loaded.

What an insult to the managers of Rice's day. He was far too enticing of a double-play candidate to intentionally walk with the bases loaded. Even If there are no outs, the bases are full and you feel you have to give up a run, don't walk Rice. Just let him give you the two outs he probably will anyway. Rice ranks tied for 179th on the all-time intentional walk list. Included among the others with 77 career intentional walks are the likes of Geoff Jenkins and Clay Dalrymple (among others). On the other hand, Rice ranks sixth all-time in GIDP's, an exceptionally astounding tidbit when you consider that Rice had 9,058 plate appearances in his career. The five players ahead of him on the all-time list all had north of 12,300 plate appearances. Rice was an absolute out machine and if he had the longevity of most Hall of Famers, he would have been the Sadaharu Oh of double plays - so far in the clear of the next closest guy that his record would have been as safe as can be.

The second major component of a Shaughnessy Jim Rice Hall of Fame case contains statistical cherry picking that even the most hard headed flat-earthers would have to admire. Park factors don't matter, great on-base men that inflate your RBI totals don't matter. You just regurgitate numbers as though they have any meaning at all without context.

Also from yesterday...

...when Rice retired in 1989, he was one of only 13 players with eight or more seasons of 20 homers and 100 RBIs. The others were Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, Aaron, Mays, DiMaggio, Killebrew, Musial, Ott, Schmidt, (Ted) Williams, and Banks.

Shaughnessy from 12/6/05

Of the 17 players (who've been on the ballot) boasting at least 350 homers and a .290 average, all are in Cooperstown -- except for Rice and Dick Allen. He is the only player in major league history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. In the 12 seasons spanning 1975-86, Rice led the American League in games, at-bats, runs, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging, total bases, extra-base hits, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

The case against Rice is simple.

1) Playing home games in Fenway drastically inflates the value of his production. Hitting in the same lineup as players like Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (a much, much better Hall candidate btw) inflates his RBI total. Context matters.

2) He did not play for a very long time by Hall standards; did not play at a HOF level for enough seasons.

3) His defense or base running were not such that they make up for his batting statistics, which fall well short of HOF caliber.

The stats Shaughnessy reels off amount to noise in the presence of these items.

Finally, the Shaughnessy Rice defense will in all likelihood contain a jab at the rational among us who choose to devote some time to analyzing where players stack up against one another. Here is Shaughnessy yesterday:

On the other hand, we have members of Bill James Youth who've never been out of the house who believe Rice has no business being in the Hall.

For one, the "Bill James Youth" comment is a thinly veiled Adolf Hitler reference...in a sports column...about the Hall-of-Fame candidacy of Jim Rice. Stay classy, Dan.

Second, I mean, are we still doing the "blogger/stat geek lives in his or her parents' basement" thing? In 2008? Really? The web is here to stay, Dan. How's that NYT stock you've amassed over the years holding up?

******

Shaughnessy ends his piece yesterday with this:

Guess you had to be there. Or maybe talk to some of the players and managers who were there.

Now, it's possible that Shaughnessy means that you actually had to be physically "there". Let's say he doesn't, however. First, he was in Baltimore while Rice put up his best seasons so Shaughnessy himself wasn't really "there" but for fifteen or so nights a season. Second, such a stringent qualifier would discount the opinions of too many of his BBWAA brethren (I'm looking at you, Jenkins) who were not "there" to see Rice all that often.

So let's assume he means "you had to be paying close attention to baseball at the time when Jim Rice was playing." That's fair enough. Contemporary opinion should matter for something I suppose. I happen to believe that stats tell most, if not all, of the story if you know which numbers to look at and don't cut corners. But I don't think it's unreasonable to contend that contemporary opinion matters.

Well guess who started writing about baseball in earnest in 1977, Rice's first great season? None other than Bill James. And if you have read over Rich Lederer's Abstracts on the Abstracts series, you find that James devoted a lot of effort, smack in the middle of Rice's career, to analyzing what kind of player Rice was. Let's take a look.

Here is James from the 1978 Baseball Abstract:

"A number of numerical attacks on Reggie Jackson's status as a superstar have attempted to downgrade him by making statistical inferences which I think are misleading...He is described as a ballplayer who has never hit .300--but that is lilke describing Roberto Clemente as a guy who never hit 30 home runs, or Ty Cobb as a player who never hit 20. The fact remains, Jackson does an awful lot of things well, and most often does them well when his team needs them. His On-Base percentage last year was .378, better than most .300 hitters, and it's a more important statistic. His excellent SB% (.850), GIDP/AB ratio (1/175), and slugging percentage (.550) add up to a hell of a lot more than the eight singles by which he missed .300. But more to the point, Jackson has never played a season in a good hitting ballpark. His three home parks, in Oakland, Baltimore, and New York, are, except for Anaheim, the 3 toughest places to hit in the league. To compare his stats in Yankee (sic) to those of, say, Jim Rice in Fenway, is just ridiculous."

"It is difficult to say anything intelligent about the Red Sox without discussing the park they play in. The public perception of this team is that of a heavy hitting outfit with a suspect pitching staff. But the fact is that the heavy-hitting Boston offense, in 81 road games, scored only 365 runs, essentially an average total, while the 'mediocre' Boston pitching and defense limited their opponents to 305 runs on the road, the lowest total in the league. You might want to read that sentence again, because it is surely the most shocking contention in this book."

Here is James during Rice's awesome three-year peak, real-time offering up the goods on the extent to which Fenway Park would inflate any hitter's batting numbers. On the Orioles beat, think Shaughnessy was digging in with this level of analysis?

In the 1979 Baseball Abstract, James goes into great detail to run through the respective MVP cases of Rice and Ron Guidry. It's a fascinating read, well worth going back and checking out.

This is from Rich's piece on the 1979 Baseball Abstract:

Later, in "Guidry/Rice: A Post Script," James volunteers that "the purpose of this essay, of course, was not to put to rest the MVP debate as much as to introduce a variety of analytical theories and techniques that you might not be familiar with."

30 years later, there is at least one columnist who is all set with his own "analytical theories and techniques" thank you very much.

Oftentimes the mainstream will accuse the SABR-inclined of having it out for Rice. I can see why that may be the case - hell, here I am writing about Rice for what seems like the fiftieth time - but the reason he garners so much attention is that Rice provides the prototypical case for the need to consider context when statistically evaluating baseball players. In the 1980 Baseball Abstract, James dispels any notion that he personally has it out for Rice by claiming he "has virtually qualified for the Hall of Fame already." This was a reasonable assumption coming off his 1977-1979, three season Hall-worthy peak.

Just in case you thought that James was not getting it right when it comes to Rice, he unveiled in the 1986 Baseball Abstract a projection system that foresaw Rice retiring "in just a few more years with totals of 399 home runs, 1434 RBI and a .298 average, 2419 hits." James then concedes that his own methodology, in Rice's case, "probably is much too conservative." As Rich points out in his note, it wasn't conservative at all. Rice ended up with 382, 1451, .298, 2452. Bill's gut told him the projection was conservative but the projection, the data, ended up being right. Funny, that.

Here is the most amazing part about all of this. In Wednesday's column, Shaughnessy mentions James, acknowledging his now famous contention that Roy White was better than Rice. Shaughnessy also takes an excerpt from Rob Neyer, who himself responded to Shaughnessy's column yesterday. And yet, sticking to his guns in the face of well reasoned dissent, Shaughnessy simply asserts "Guess you had to be there", a statement so bankrupt, so lacking in creativity or thought that James was able to respond to it 23 years earlier.

I will end with Bill James, from his 1985 Baseball Abstract.

"Virtually all sportswriters, I suppose, believe that Jim Rice is an outstanding player. If you ask them how they know this, they'll tell you that they just know; I've seen him play. That's the difference in a nutshell between knowledge and bullshit; knowledge is something that can be objectively demonstrated to be true, and bullshit is something that you just 'know.' If someone can actually demonstrate that Jim Rice is a great ballplayer, I'd be most interested to see the evidence."

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Thanks to the Cubs dominance and the surprise Cardinals and Astros, the NL Central was one of baseball's best divisions in 2008. Here is how they appear to be shaping up this off-season.

Chicago Cubs

Strengths: The Cubbies had the lowest starting pitching ERA in the National League last season and from the "rich get richer" department, are rumored to be far along in talks to acquire Jake Peavy. Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly...wow.

This rumor gives me an opportunity to bring up one of the biggest threats facing the defending World Series champs that I omitted on Monday. Chase Utley will miss the first few months of the season while he recovers from hip surgery. Philly seems to recognize this threat, as they are in pursuit of Mark DeRosa, who would go to Philly as part of a three-team deal that would net the Cubs Peavy.

Weaknesses: Chicago's bullpen was just mediocre last season and they are about to lose Kerry Wood. The acquisition of Kevin Gregg at best allows them to tread water. Thanks to Japanese disappointment Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs ranked 14th in the NL in right field OPS. Fukodome may bounce back but at this point, it appears to be a weak spot in an otherwise deep lineup. Replacing Jim Edmonds' production will be no easy task. Quietly, the all-time great hit .256/.369/.568 in 2008.

Opportunities: Adding Peavy, I mean, wow. Outside of acquiring Peavy, the Cubs should look to add outfield help. Reed Johnson, Felix Pie and Fukodome splitting time between center and right field sounds like a risky proposition. The Cubs should take a good look at the deep free agent outfield pool of talent.

Threats: If they do in fact deal DeRosa, hoping Mike Fontenot replicates his .305/.395/.514 season in 2009 seems like a trap.

Milwaukee Brewers

Strengths: Milwaukee's young core of position players is championship caliber when hitting on all cylinders. Year over year, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Cory Hart and Bill Hall slipped badly in 2008 but I would expect bounce back from this group in 2009. I would expect the team OPS+ of 103 to tick up a decent amount this season.

Weaknesses: The Brewers ended 2008 with the second best starters' ERA in the National League but gone from that staff are 329 innings of 2.52 ERA pitching. C.C. Sabathia appears to be a Yankee and Ben Sheets will not be returning either.

Opportunities: 23-year old Yovani Gallardo gets a shot as the team's ace in 2008. I am not sure I would call that an "opportunity" for Milwaukee, but it sure is one for Gallardo.

With Sabathia now out of the picture, GM Doug Melvin will have to make sure he puts the $100 million or so he had allocated for him to good use. I am not sure re-signing Mike Lamb qualifies but let's see what else he has cooking.

Threats: The biggest threat to Milwaukee is that Melvin does not adequately address their starting pitching. With their pitching staff all but sure to take a few steps back, the threat of the offensive core not returning to their 2007 form looms as another threat.

Houston Astros

Strengths: It doesn't get much better in the middle of any lineup than Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, who slugged .561 and .569 respectively in 2008.

Weaknesses: Acquiring Miguel Tejada has proven to be a disaster thus far. Amid, um, some confuision about his age that sparked controversy in 2008, Miggy was able to post just a .283/.314/.415 line last season. Tejada hurt but what killed the Astros more than anything was handing Michael Bourn (.229/.288/.300) their everyday center field and lead-off roles. Houston was dead last in the National League in OPS from both center and their lead-off hitter.

Opportunities: Houston is looking to dump Tejada but, surprise surprise, there doesn't seem to be much of a market for a rapidly aging shortstop with limited range who can no longer hit. If Hunter Pence could split the difference of his 2007 and 2008 batting average and on-base numbers, the Astros offense would be a lot better for it.

Threats: After Roy Oswalt, it is difficult to see how this rotation is going to function. Signing Mike Hampton doesn't seem to be the answer, either. Here's Ed Wade on the Hampton signing:

“A healthy Mike Hampton has always been a workhorse on the club. Mike just finished the season with Atlanta having not missed a start down the stretch in the second half of the season. ... I don’t think there’s any reason based on the performance at the end of the season, based on the medical information we gathered, for us to feel that he’s not going to be able to go out there every fifth day.”

You go, Ed Wade.

St. Louis Cardinals

Strengths: The Cards led the NL in OPS+ and were second in total bases last season, thanks in large part to another MVP campaign from Albert Pujols. That lineup more or less returns but with one notable tinker. Khalil Greene should represent an upgrade over what the Cards got at shortstop in 2008. Expect St. Louis to pound the ball again.

Weaknesses: Here are three St. Louis regulars against left handed pitching.

            AVG   OBP   SLG
Kennedy    .270  .299  .297
Schumaker  .168  .238  .185 
Ankiel     .224  .268  .448

Opportunities: Adding Greene and lefty reliever Trever Miller were two nice under-the-radar early off-season moves for the Cards and indications from the Bellagio are that they are not done. Another dependable starter would round out the Cards' staff.

Threats: St. Louis boasted one of the National Legue's most productive outfields last season, but all three of their starters are late blooming late twenty-somethings without much of a track record of producing like they did in 2008.

Cincinnati Reds

Strengths: Anchored by Francisco Cordero, the Reds return (and in fairness, also lose) some of the key pieces from one of the league's best bullpens in 2008. Despite playing at the Great American Bandbox, Reds relievers posted the third best ERA in the NL last year.

Weaknesses: Their team OPS+ of 93 was pretty terrible and with Adam Dunn no longer in the fold, it's hard to see how they improve off of that figure. Offense will be hard to come by for Cinci in 2009.

Opportunities: In 2007, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo combined for 442.3 innings of 3.97 ERA pitching. Last year the pair turned in 384.3 innings at a 4.78 clip. If these two return to form in 2009, and youngsters Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto come back strong, this could be one of the better run prevention units in baseball.

Threats: The biggest threat is that, even with the addition of Ramon Hernandez, the Reds' offense is not even close to where it needs to be in order to field a competitive team. The pitching will have to come through in spades.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Strengths: Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit and perhaps even Andy LaRoche are all championship caliber regulars. Pittsburgh had more or less an average offense in 2008 and for better or worse, the offense will once again be the strength of this time.

Weaknesses: The Bucs pitching is astoundingly awful. Of their hurlers who started more than 10 games, just one, Paul Maholm, had an ERA+ north of 86. EIGHTY-SIX!?!? Four other Pirates pitchers combined for 20 starts and in those starts posted a 9.04 ERA in 85.6 innings.

Opportunities: Um, improved pitching? Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell just HAVE to get better, no?

Threats: If the start of Andy LaRoche's big league career (.184/.288/.272) is any indication of things to come, the Bucs offense will suffer greatly. Also, a full season without Jason Bay and Xavier Nady could unmask some deficiencies in their attack.

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As the Winter Meetings get underway, we decided we would roll out a series, division by division, on how each team shapes up at this juncture of the off-season. I hate to go all B-School on everyone but we thought we would structure it in the form of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) Analysis.

Today, we start with the National League East.

Philadelphia Phillies

Strengths: The bullpen was just remarkable in 2008 and they come back with the major components more or less in place. Ryan Madson setting up Brad Lidge should make this unit as formidable as any in the National League regardless of any slippage from the rest of the 'pen.

Assuming they address left field, the offense should again be excellent. Defensively, the Phills ranked 6th in the NL in team Defensive Efficiency, a number that should improve assuming Pat Burrell moves on.

Weaknesses: There aren't many but the starting pitching looks a bit questionable heading into 2009. Cole Hamels should be terrific but it seems unlikely, given past health concerns and his previous high of 183 innings, that he would be able to turn in another 227. Brett Myers is something of an enigma, Joe Blanton's flyball tendencies could catch up to him and it's hard to know what to expect from J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick. Signing Derek Lowe, whom they reportedly covet, would really solidify this rotation.

Opportunities: The offense should improve if their three superstars return to form. Each under-performed their three-year splits in 2008.

               2008          2006-2008
Howard   .251/.339/.543   .277/.385/.595
Rollins  .277/.349/.437   .284/.342/.485
Utley    .292/.380/.535   .310/.388/.542

Threats: Starting pitching implosion, failure to adequately address left field.

New York Mets

Strengths: Like Philadelphia, New York returns an excellent core. Johan Santana is probably the National League's best starting pitcher, while Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jose Reyes three of the top ten position players in the Senior Circuit. There is no reason to think that they will not continue to shine.

Weaknesses: The Mets bullpen was a disaster in 2008 and with Billy Wagner out for all of 2009, things are not looking any rosier at this point in the off-season. Addressing his relief staff has to be a priority for Omar Minaya. Along with the bullpen, the back end of their starting rotation will need to be addressed as well. This is what makes the Aaron Heilman debate so interesting. There are those who believe he should be moved to the rotation, which is logical enough. But he is far and away their best reliever, so making him a starter amounts to addressing one problem by creating another.

Opportunities: Minaya has an abundance of free agent pitching talent from which he can hire new personnel to shore up holes in the bullpen and rotation.

Threats: Minaya cannot necessarily rest on his laurels when it comes to his offense. Two major contributors to his 2008 offensive attack might reasonably be expected to drop off some. Daniel Murphy does not have much of a track record producing like he did down the stretch last season, and Carlos Delgado will be hard-pressed to replicate last year's out put in this, his 37-year old season.

Florida Marlins

Strengths: Florida posted a team 105 OPS+ with their shortstop and second baseman chipping in with the two most productive seasons on the team. At the age of 24, Hanley Ramirez has emerged as a superstar in every sense. His defense leaves a bit to be desired but HanRam backed up his .332/.386/.562 2007 season with a .301/.400/.540 line in 2008. He joins Arky Vaughan and Alex Rodriguez as the only two shortstops since 1901 to turn in more than one OPS+ season of 145 before his 25th birthday. As for Dan Uggla, go ahead and try and list out the second basemen you would prefer ahead of him. It won't take you too long.

Weaknesses: For whatever reason, the Marlins struggle to hit left handers. In 2008 they hit .233/.314/.385 as a team against southpaws, and there does not appear to be any help imminent. More at-bats for Cameron Maybin may help but the guy he will be replacing in Florida's lineup, Josh Willingham, was one of their more productive hitters against lefties. Ramirez and Uggla both hit righties better than they do lefties.

Opportunities: Thanks to myriad injuries and some questionable personnel, the Marlins had one of the worst starting pitching units in the National League last season. While you won't see Florida making a play for Lowe or C.C. Sabathia, they do have internal options that should provide some hope. Andrew Miller, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez, talented pitchers all and 80% of the Fish rotation, pitched a combined 330 innings in 2008. A few developmental steps forward and good health from these four should push the Marlins rotation closer to league average.

Threats: Aside from continued injury problems in the starting rotation, the biggest issue threatening the 2009 Marlins is their ability to get productivity from positions other than second base and shortstop. There is plenty of reason to hope Jeremy Hermida, Dallas McPherson, Maybin and Cody Ross all chip in with productive campaigns. There is also cause for ample skepticism.

Atlanta Braves

Strengths: Offense from the infield and catcher. The Braves have the luxury of penciling in well above average productivity from the catcher position and their infield. Improved pop from Casey Kotchman would be nice but Atlanta is solid with Chipper Jones, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann.

Weaknesses: Atlanta's starting pitching had the 11th ranked ERA in the NL in 2008. Their bullpen ranked 12th. Their left fielders ranked 15th in OPS. Their center fielders 10th. Their right fielders 16th. They couldn't pitch it in 2008 and their outfielders couldn't hit it. There's your recipe for the franchise's worst season in 18 years.

Opportunities: They have already begun to address their starting pitching woes by adding Javier Vazquez, whose peripherals indicate a far better pitcher than his bloated ERA might suggest. Atlanta is also aggressively pursuing A.J. Burnett.

Threats: If Chipper misses significant time and Jeff Francoeur does not somehow regain his form, it is hard to see how the Braves offense will function.

Washington Nationals

Strengths: Eh, in adding Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen, the Nats have tacked on two players who would have been among their very best in 2008. Nobody on their roster produced like Willingham last year and nobody in their rotation threw even close to as many innings as Olsen did.

Weaknesses: Everything. Their starting pitching looks dreadful, their bullpen just as bad and their offense looks worse than their pitching.

Opportunities: There is a little talent in this lineup. If Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman could stay healthy, if Elijah Dukes could stay sane, if Lastings Milledge could take a developmental step forward, if Austin Kearns could fulfill his potential, then the Nats might have a halfway decent offensive attack. Problem is, only if all of those things happen does this offense function.

Threats: They really cannot be worse than they were in 2008 so it is hard to pinpoint a "threat".

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Check back for the next installment on Wednesday, when we look at the National League Central.

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If I were an owner of a Major League Baseball team, I would want my Baseball Operations staff to draft well and then to develop those players so that they could become Major League assets quickly. I would want them to keep tabs on every professional baseball player, within and outside the organization, so that they could be prepared for any acquisition opportunity that might arise. I would want them to have conviction about which players are worth taking risks on, and which to avoid. I would want them to understand every last nuance of the MLB transaction system in order to position the club to strike deals that others are not even considering. Finally, I would want them to understand team composition; how a team comprised of players with complementary skills can often make that club greater than the sum of its parts.

Put all of these characteristics together and I think you can start to get an appreciation of how the 2008 World Champion Phillies came to be. Of any championship team in recent memory, they had the best homegrown core of talent. They were opportunistic and aggressive (if not always successful) on the trade and free agent markets. They plucked a dandy in the Rule 5 draft. And with the incredible core of talent that came up through the Phillies system in place, they rounded out the roster beautifully on the margins.

Pat Gillick deserves a whole lot of credit and so too does Ed Wade. Say what you will about the man - I certainly would not pick him to lead my franchise - but Wade was in charge when this team started to come of age. That's worth something. The two holdovers from Wade and Gillick's respective tenures, Mike Arbuckle and Ruben Amaro, Jr., might deserve the most credit of all. However you want to divvy up kudos, the architects of the last ten years made the Phillies of 2008 a veritable case study in Major League Baseball talent management and acquisition.

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Arbuckle's departure might really hurt. He was responsible for scouting and drafting much of the Phillies' core. How much of the core? Well how about Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels? Indeed their four best position players and their best pitcher.

Player     Pos           NL Position Vorp Rank  
Burrell    LF                 5
Rollins    SS                 3
Utley      2B                 1
Howard     1B                 6

As far as the pitchers go, you don't need me to spell out the World Series MVP's excellence. Hamels has emerged as a star. Brett Myers, Ryan Madson and Carlos Ruiz were all key contributors and Arbuckle draftees. There was a lot more that went into this roster, however.

How about Shane Victorino? Check out The Good Phight for a trip down memory lane on how the Phillies snagged him in the December 2004 Rule 5 Draft (and then subsequently mishandled Victorino during the 2005 campaign).

To further drive home Ed Wade's deficiencies with Victorino, Wade's handling of Victorino may have, among other things, cost the Phillies the playoffs in 2005. Remember, in 2005, the Phillies missed the playoffs by one game (one horrible horrible game). While Wade let Charlie Manuel give 107 at-bats in 2005 to inning-Endy Chavez and his .215/.243/.299 line, Victorino came into his own in Scranton, showing speed (17 stolen bases), power (18 home runs, .534 slugging), patience (51 walks, .377 on-base percentage), and defense (14 outfield assists), all the attributes he's showing now for the big-league club. Maybe the season would have gone differently if Chavez, along with his late-inning pinch-hit failings, had been replaced mid-season by Victorino.

Of course Victorino would not have had the chance to emerge as an everyday championship-caliber contributor had Pat Gillick not been disciplined enough to let Aaron Rowand walk after the 2007 season. The Philly fans loved Rowand, he played a terrific center field and in 2007, notched the highest slugging percentage of any Phillies center fielder in over 80 seasons. Problem was, he was 30 years old and in a position to command a long-term deal. Moreover, with the big club as stacked as it was with homegrown talent, understandably, Philadelphia's farm system had thinned. So Gillick offered Rowand arbitration and when he signed with the San Francisco Giants, the Phillies received two compensation picks, #34 and #51 in the 2008 draft, that they used on a pair of promising California high schoolers. Gillick simultaneously addressed the present and the future.

His plan was to let Victorino take over center and cover for some of Rowand's lost output by getting creative in right field. He signed what seemed to be the perfect platoon. Jayson Werth had a history of pounding southpaws, just as Geoff Jenkins had always tuned up right handers. Jenkins flopped in 2008, but Werth stepped up in a big way, posting a .273/.363/.498 line. The only other position left to address was the third base vacancy filled by Abraham Nunez's (merciful) departure. Gillick was panned by some saber-inclined fans for signing Pedro Feliz, who is just an awful on-base man. He is not, however, without attributes. He's a terrific fielder and Gillick knew that just about anyone would be an offensive upgrade over Nunez. Even Feliz. Philadelphia's offense suffered on a year-over-year basis, but that had as much to do with regression from Ruiz, Howard, Utley and Rollins as it did with Rowand's departure. Besides, Gillick's run prevention unit would more than make up for their offensive drop-off.

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Philadelphia's starting pitching was just average in 2008. Hamels emerged as a stud and somehow Jamie Moyer turned in another productive campaign. Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton struggled, and Myers did not regain his form until the end of the season. Given their home ballpark and Joe Blanton's fly ball tendencies, it was hard to see how that would work out. But somehow the mid-season trade worked out just fine for "Stand" Pat. Blanton was more or less an average innings eater as a Philadelphia starter, which was more than they could say they were getting out of 60% of their rotation before he arrived from Oakland.

No matter how you cut it, the real story of the 2008 Phillies was their bullpen. Their team 3.19 ERA out of the pen was nothing short of remarkable (88% of their relief innings were tossed at a 2.83 ERA clip), particularly when you consider where they play their home games. Take a look at their bullpen ERA numbers since they moved into Citizens Bank Park.

         Bullpen ERA
2008        3.19
2007        4.43
2006        3.79
2005        4.24
2004        3.68

Gillick went about assembling his pen the right way; humbly and with plenty of margin for error. He stockpiled arms every which way you could think to amass talent. He netted the big fish, Brad Lidge, in a deal with the Houston Astros. He told Madson (another Arbuckle draftee) he was his set up guy. He signed J.C. Romero in June of 2007. Why not? The shrewd Boston Red Sox saw fit to ink him to a deal in December of 2006, how awful could he be just six months later? Gillick also collected journeyman arms like Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey and Rudy Seanez while also showing faith in youngster J.A. Happ. It was an approach that other teams could learn from. You don't really know what you are going to get in 50-90 innings from any one pitcher, so you had better cover your ass out there. The stars aligned for Philly in 2008 with regard to their bullpen, but it was also the result of Gillick's clever work assembling the pieces.

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Amaro has an excellent team returning in 2009. Although he has stated that he would like to return, it is likely that Burrell will move on to greener pastures. Aside from also replacing Moyer's rotation spot, this is Amaro's only major personnel choice facing him this off-season. It is conceivable that he could hope for a bounce back campaign from Jenkins but given his injury propensity and that Matt Stairs is currently the team's fourth outfielder, adding to the outfield will in all likelihood be a priority either way. The outfield free agent class is deep this off-season, so Amaro will have plenty of options.

The major decision looming for Amaro concerns his first baseman. Ryan Howard has two more years of arbitration eligibility but given his reward last season, Philly can more or less count on paying him at least $25 million over then next two years. That's just fine, and the Phillies should not blink at such a number but there are other factors. One, there is a media infatuation with Howard's HR/RBI (et tu, Bos?) numbers and it trickles down to the fan base. They want Howard locked up. Two, there is the possibility that Howard becomes disgruntled or even a distraction without a long-term deal in place.

Amaro should not be swayed. With two cost-controlled years remaining, Howard's value will never be higher on the open market. Amaro should listen to offers. At worst, the right package is never presented, Philadelphia retains his services for two years and Amaro has more data on which to base his decision of whether or not to give Howard that long-term, big money deal. There really is not any upside to offering a longer-term contract at this point. Remember, Miguel Cabrera was just given $153 million guaranteed, Manny Ramirez is requesting $25 million per and A-Rod signed on for a $275 million deal last season. By contrast, the Phillies have managed to lock up their stars at more manageable figures. Utley, Rollins and Lidge in particular all play for reasonable money given their respective productivity levels. That's the Phillies way and Amaro should work to keep it as such. Howard's output declined precipitously in 2008 so Amaro should not feel any urgency on this matter. He should keep in mind the Rowand case. Sometimes it's ok when your stars walk.

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The Phillies future continues to look bright. Their short-term farm system prospects may not look so hot but stability on the Major League roster should render this issue more or less moot. Longer term, with seven of the first 136 picks in last June's draft, it is likely that their system will once again begin to round into form. With Arbuckle gone, however, Amaro will have to pay particularly close attention to ensure that his player development staff continues its exemplary work. Amaro has the luxury of taking over a fantastic organization. He also has the burden of having to go nowhere but down.

It will be fun to keep an eye on how he goes about managing his roster in the coming years.

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David Pinto offers a good look at how Philadelphia took down Tampa Bay in Game One last night.

The Phillies dominated game one much more than the 3-2 score indicates. Hamels and the bullpen shut down the Rays offense, allowing five hits and two walks while striking out eight. The Phillies picked up plenty of hits, but the Rays pitching was in bend, don't break mode. They allowed no hits with runners in scoring position, but one of those ground outs scored a run. That was the difference maker. One or two big hits and the Phillies win this game in a blow out.

I decided I would use Game One as an historical jumping-off point of sorts. Thank goodness for Baseball Reference.

Chase Utley became only the third second baseman to homer in the first inning of Game One of the World Series. Joe Morgan did it against the Yanks in 1976, Craig Counsell homered off of Mike Mussina in the 2001 Fall Classic and in a game I attended, Dustin Pedroia took Jeff Francis deep last year at Fenway.

Looking closer, or rather altering the parameters, a second baseman has homered just 18 times in Game One of the Series and on just three occasions has a second baseman playing for the visitors homered. The last time a second baseman homered for the road team in Game One of the World Series? Why it was none other than Joe Morgan, this time playing for the very same franchise as Utley in the 1983 Series off of Baltimore's Scott McGregor. And damn, now that I look, McGregor was very good in 1983; 260 innings, 3.18 ERA. As Larry David would say, PRETT-AYY, PRETT-AYY good.

None of this is particularly earth shattering. But it's the World Series, an event whose significance needs no further explanation. The World Series! And it doesn't matter if the Yankees or Dodgers or Red Sox or Cubs or Rays or Robins or Athletics or Senators or Phillies are participating. It's a big deal, and worthy of its own historical backdrop.

As I write this, Carl Crawford just homered. He is the sixth left fielder in history to go yard for a home team trailing Game One of the World Series. The last one to do it with two outs? Tom Tresh, who passed away just last week, in 1963.

The following season, Tresh was a monster against the St. Louis Cardinals in the Fall Classic. He hit .273/.414/.636 and launched what might have been one of the biggest home runs in World Series history. The Series was tied heading into Game 5 and in the top of the ninth with two outs, Mickey Mantle at second and his team trailing Bob Gibson and the Cards 2-0, Tresh hit a two-run home run to spoil Gibson's shutout and send the game into extras. Unfortunately, the Yanks gave up three in the top of the tenth. Who was the hero for St. Louis? 2008 World Series color commentator for FOX, Tim McCarver, who hit a three-run home run off of Pete Mikkelsen to send the Cards back home with a 3-2 series lead. St. Louis would win it in seven.

See what I did there? I closed the loop. Tied it all back. Seriously, B-Ref's Play Index is more fun than anyone should be allowed.

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I was at Fenway and did not get to catch much of the Phills-Dodgers game last night, so I will just share a few random thoughts on the ALCS.

Last night, with an off-day looming and his most dependable workhorse taking the hill at Fenway Monday afternoon, Terry Francona:

- Stayed with Josh Beckett way, way too long.

- Needlessly prioritized lefty/righty match-ups over simply deploying good pitchers in the fifth inning.

- Got 5.2 innings out of his best four relievers on a night his opponent got 3.1 innings out of their relief ace alone.

- Gave the ball to Mike Timlin when another Red Sox pitcher with a pulse was available in a tie-game in the 12th inning.

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