Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers tonight. Here is what he has done thus far in 2008:

                  IP   ERA   H   R   ER  BB  SO
MLB              38.7  4.42  39  19  19  24  33
MiLB (total)     61.1  1.91  39  19  13  19  59      
(Since demotion) 18.0  1.00   7   2   2   4  12

He was a tad unlucky on balls in play and he walked too many batters when he was up with the Big club. He seems to have straightened out the control issues back with Jacksonville but then, Jacksonville is not Coors Field, is it? One could reasonably question the decision to bring Kershaw back for his first start since his demotion in Denver but either way it appears he may be up for good. Stay tuned.

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Last night Miguel Cairo, hitting .225/.298/.284, started at Designated Hitter for the Seattle Mariners. When the obit is drafted for the hapless 2008 Mariners, their disregard for the defensive spectrum, for the opportunity to gain offensive punch from the 1st Base and Designated Hitter positions, should be pointed to as the primary cause of death. Maybe this is too harsh in that Richie Sexson's rapid decline could not have been foreseen, but the Mariners have moved on from Sexson with a 1B/DH combo of Cairo and Jose Vidro.

Some numbers to take in below:

           AVG   OBP   SLG
Cairo     .225  .298  .284
Vidro     .222  .266  .319
AL 1B     .260  .344  .421
AL DH     .246  .333  .416
SEA 1B    .221  .312  .354
SEA DH    .197  .249  .280
NL P      .148  .182  .178

Seattle's Designated Hitter output approximates that of a National League pitcher about as closely as it does an American League DH's.

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Going into last night's game against the Seattle Mariners, the Boston Red Sox sported a road record of 21-32, "good" for the American League's fourth worst mark. Here are some of their road numbers, and how they stack up against their American League peers. Maybe this will help to clarify why it is they have struggled away from Fenway Park.

        OPS
BOS    .763
CHW    .742
TEX    .739
NYY    .732
TBR    .727

       OPS Against
BOS      .696
LAA      .706
OAK      .719
TOR      .729
CHW      .730

Oops, doesn't really clarify much at all, does it? On Sunday night's national telecast in Anaheim, Joe Morgan went on and on about how the Red Sox road woes represent their Achilles Heel. Jon Miller said that their poor body of work away from Boston precludes one from saying Boston is a great team.

But the numbers above tell a different story. They have been situationally bad on the road, allowing a disproportionately large number of runners on base to score while failing to drive their own players in. But Boston boasts Major League Baseball's second best run differential and their best hitter hasn't played for the last 45 games or so. And while many seem to think that their troubles on the road will hold them back (they might), the numbers above suggest that Boston will be just fine.

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This past off-season featured one of the more interesting "challenge trades' in recent years. The St. Louis Cardinals sent along their third baseman, Scott Rolen, to the Toronto Blue Jays for theirs, Troy Glaus. This was not surplus-for-need or a salary dump; just one GM saying to the other, "I think I have the better of you here."

Rolen is a year older than Glaus but has also had the better career thanks in no small part to his defense. Some have even put forth the possibility that he is the very best defensive third baseman ever.

I thought the midway point, or rather the All-Star Break, would be an interesting point in time to have a look back to see who is "winning" this trade.

          G   PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+
Glaus    94  390  .276  .377  .486   128
Rolen    70  293  .267  .358  .431   112

It's no secret that it has been a rough year for JP Ricciardi, and it looks like this trade will not help him when it comes time for him to make his case as to why he deserves to hang onto his job.

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Joe Posnanski is no stranger to this site, and he is one of the best sports writers in the country. Yesterday he penned a look back at Bobby Murcer and Bobby Bonds in a piece with plenty of baseball analysis but also one chock full of nuggets that make you ponder some of life's curiosities.

Isn't it interesting how two people can become linked forever? How fleeting can life's successes be? Isn't it strange how decisions made at a given point in time can alter the course of one's life forever, even if the implications are not understood realtime? Anyway, it is all in here.

Well, trade talks began for what had a chance to be one of the most overwhelming one-for-one deal in baseball history — a swap of two $100,000 players — Murcer for Bonds. On a level, it too made sense. Here was a chance to get Murcer away from New York, away from the shadow of Mantle, away from the fans who could not love him unconditionally. Here was a chance to send him to the other side of the country, to San Francisco, where he could see more fastballs, where the fans might appreciate his talents, his hard-charging style, his Oklahoma charm. Sure. Made sense.

And here was a chance to get Bonds away from San Francisco, where he could never be Mays, where so many of the fans had come to notice the strikeouts more than he home runs and the stolen bases and the rifle throws. Sure, they could send him to New York, the Big Apple, where his big and overwhelming talents could win over Metropolis and give him the stardom that (maybe) he wanted.

Yes, it made sense … only it didn’t, not at all...

If you only read one full-length baseball article this week, it should be this one by Poz.

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I did not tune into last night's Home Run Derby but for a half hour or 45 minutes, but I sure seemed to pick the right time. Josh Hamilton put on one of the all-time great shows at Yankee Stadium, racking up 28 home runs in the first round. A left-handed hitter, you might think that Hamilton took advantage of Yankee Stadium's short right field. You would be dead wrong. Hamilton hit balls 25 rows into the third deck, 20 rows back into the right-center field bleachers, 30 feet onto whatever the hell that black area in Yankee Stadium is and, most impressively, he hit a ball square off the wall that sits behind the right-center field bleachers.

I am no Chris Berman defender. In fact I think he is on the very short list of most annoying sports commentators going. "Back...back...back...oh, wow...this one's headed to STATEN ISLAND!" Please.

But Berman was quite good during Hamilton's show. He mentioned Hamilton's personal history (how could you not?). He made it clear that this is a great story but that it is important to keep in mind that Hamilton's problems were his own doing; an excellent point to make on a night when countless youngsters are watching, mesmerized as this guy hits 500-footer after 500-footer. He wondered aloud if Hamilton's Batting Practice coach was "on a pitch count." I thought that was pretty funny.

And then Joe Morgan, feeling the need to chime in on Hamilton's travails and all that he has overcome, said the following (and I paraphrase). "You can talk about all that other stuff and it is all well and good but what impresses me most is that he has been able to adjust to Big League pitching after three years out of baseball."

Now, I think I know what Joe was getting at. He was trying to rein the discussion back in and focus on baseball, a perfectly reasonable thing to do. Unfortunately, the way he introduced his line of thinking, casting aside all Hamilton had overcome in such nonchalant fashion, made his comment come off petty and insensitive. No, Joe, the most amazing thing about Hamilton is not that he can hit Big League pitching after three years away. It's that he's alive, sober and successful at all, whether it be in baseball, plumbing or any other field. His life is on the right track.

And yeah, as FJM points out, Justin Morneau got hosed and ESPN may have glorified Hamilton's personal story wee too much.

==========

As for Hamilton the ballplayer, does anyone have any clue what to make of this guy? Without much of a Minor League track record and with the prospect of relapse hovering (he admits that he does not "trust himself" and has a personal advisor/sponsor to help him stay sober), how do you project him? There can be no doubt about his physical capabilities, especially after last night. The ball jumped off of his bat like none of the other participants.

He is a 27 year-old with a 138 OPS+ in his first 183 Big League games. I would love to know what you make of Hamilton, his potential and what the future might hold for the guy.

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The Cubs get Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin, the Athletics get Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson and Josh Donaldson.

"Wow, Hendry got the better of Beane." "This is a deal that seems to make sense for everyone." "Wait, maybe the A's got the better of this thing." That has been my thinking, in chronological order. Now let me explain.

Folks who knock the A's will in all likelihood underestimate the market for Harden's services. There are three components to this deal that conspire to bode badly for Chicago when I think about it.

1) Beane's track record trading pitchers; Oakland seems to have a good sense for their own pitchers' health and where they are in their career trajectory path. Beane picking up the phone and offering an Oakland pitcher in all likelihood strikes fear around MLB.

2) Jim Hendry can claim that Sabathia had nothing to do with this, but we all know that not to be the case. Right? Don't we?

3) This gave Beane the perfect opportunity. That this deal just feels below value, that my initial reaction makes me think the Cubs got the better of it, gives me even more pause. Why now for such a dominating performer like Harden? Why not drive the bidding up as July 31st draws closer? I am guessing because Beane knows that the next Harden injury could come on any given pitch and wipe out all of his value.

That said, the rationale from Hendry's standpoint is pretty straightforward. The Cubs give up a remarkable young talent in Sean Gallagher; there can be no downplaying his potential. He's excellent. They give up a 4th outfielder, a 25 year-old Minor League infielder who shows some promise but the clock is running on him and a catcher struggling mightily in AA. It's a modest haul for someone with Harden's dominant track record.

If he stays healthy, the Cubs have a club option and all in all are in for a maximum of $9 million. Again, not much commitment on the financial side either for a club with deep pockets like the Cubs have.

But the calculus in determining Harden's value must include his injury history. He has pitched 149 innings since the beginning of 2006. 149. So from Oakland's side, it goes like this.

This is a guy we have barely relied upon for a few seasons running now, a time period in which we have averaged 84.5 wins per season. We have a nice team this season, too. We now have four players for a guy who has meant very little to us during a stretch in which we were an above average club. This is a lot of addition, and not much subtraction.

Only by entering opportunity cost into the equation can this thinking turn fallacious. I guess that's why I think Oakland might have won this deal. I just do not think there was much of a market for Harden. His extraordinarily high injury risk discounts his value to the point where most teams would laugh in Beane's face if he asked for a top-100 Baseball America prospect like Gallahger, much less one of those plus three other players.

And that's fine with Beane; he can take it. He knows it only takes one team to bite. On the whole, I think Oakland won this thing but I cannot necessarily fault Hendry because I sense that he might understand the risk/reward parameters here. And, as they say, "Flags fly forever."

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So this is pretty fun.

In light of Hiroki Kuroda's masterpiece last night, I thought it might be fun to look at the best Game Score performances in each league thus far in 2008. Lucky for us, ESPN tracks such things. Note that Kuroda shows up twice in the National League, while James Shields does the same in the American League.

           Date   Opp   Game Score
J. Lester  5/19   KCR       94
J. Shields 5/9    LAA       93
M. Garza   6/26   FLA       90
C. Lee     4/24   KCR       90
J. Shields 4/27   BOS       89 (tie)
K. Slowey  6/29   MIL       89 (tie)

           Date   Opp   Game Score
T. Hudson  5/2    CIN       91
H. Kuroda  7/7    ATL       91
H. Kuroda  6/6    CHC       90
J. Peavy   4/5    LAD       86
B. Sheets  4/6    SFG       85 (tie)
B. Looper  6/11   CIN       85 (tie)

Here is the rundown on Game Score, courtesy of Wiki.

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

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Boston has recalled Clay Buchholz and is sending Justin Masterson back to Pawtucket to prepare for his return to the Big Leagues as a reliever. This is something of a double-edged sword as I see it. That Buchholz is back in the rotation is a fantastic thing for Red Sox fans. His peripheral numbers (3.34 FIP, 8.6 K/G) for Boston while he was up should do much to allay concerns that this may be a premature move back to the rotation. Also, check out his numbers in Pawtucket this year.

           IP   H   BB  SO  ERA
Buchholz  43.2  36  17  43  2.47

What should perhaps be more concerning to Sox fans is the prospect of Masterson returning as some sort of bullpen savior. Boston's relief pitching struggles are well known and given last year's Eric Gagne disaster, there could be some reluctance to aggressively pursue outside help. Would you want to give up Michael Bowden for Brian Fuentes or Damaso Marte? Neither would I.

Still, Masterson's peripherals leave a bit to be desired and his .832 OPS yielded to left-handed batters makes one wonder if he could be any more than a low-leverage guy or a ROOGY at this point. His performance out of the pen at AAA will be something to monitor, and will probably be the main determinant for whether or not (or how aggressively) Boston decides to pursue outside help.

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I just want to throw this out there because the people on my teevee love themselves some counting stats and intangibles. Last night, in discussing Evan Longoria's case for the last slot on the AL roster, Buck Showalter asserted that (paraphrasing) "even though his stats do not stack up, this is a guy the fans want to see." That's quite a statement given the individual in question. Longoria checks in with a 138 OPS+ as I write this.

Anyway, in a world where counting stats rule the day sometimes good players go unnoticed. Whether because of injury or team personnel reasons, some good players don't get the same opportunities their peers do to rack up the impressive counting stats. Consider the catcher position right now. Here are your All-Stars, featuring the Captain himself.

         AVG   OBP   SLG 
Mauer   .325  .416  .452
Navarro .317  .371  .436
Varitek .215  .297  .354 (wow)
Soto    .289  .375  .527
Martin  .305  .402  .449
McCann  .293  .362  .533

Ryan Doumit of the Pittsburgh Pirates is hitting .326/.372/.587 in 2008 and maybe my head has been buried in the sand somewhere, but I don't hear much of anything about the guy. Buried behind Ronny Paulino to start the year and then tabled with a concussion and shoulder injury for a few weeks, Doumit has only amassed 199 plate appearances. His .333 BABIP may portend some drop-off in the second half but keep in mind that he hits the daylights out of the ball. His Line Drive percentage has been north of 20% for two seasons running now.

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I wanted to account for today's change in style; a departure from the longer work readers have become accustomed to here at Baseball Analysts. Rich, Marc, Al, and our Designated Hitters (and Bryan, Jeff, and Joe over the years as well) regularly write remarkable, in-depth analysis. Posts here are longer than posts on many other baseball blogs, the quality of the writing better, the level of editorial care more thorough. We take pride in all of that.

My interests and schedule have begun to make this sort of writing more challenging, however. Kindly, and to his credit, Rich has nonetheless decided to let me retain my voice here. In my Change-Up column, I will be contributing shorter, more frequent posts throughout one given day per week. Today's posts on Dusty Baker and Jason Varitek are pretty good indicators of the sort of work I plan to contribute here. The posts will be shorter, perhaps snarkier, but they will not deviate from the analytical principles upon which Rich built this place. Opinions will be evidenced, conjecture (I hope) absent. I will also link to other sites that we enjoy, and also post statistics that stand out to me presented without commentary from time to time. I will just be trying to have some fun writing about baseball one day per week and the plan is for you all to find it fun, too.

It will be a little different for this place, but it will be just one day a week. I am looking forward to it, I hope you all enjoy it and I definitely welcome any feedback.

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Taking cues from Andruw Jones, Jason Varitek is sucking some pretty good suck in 2008, his contract year. He's batting .222/.304/.373 on the season, good for a 77 OPS+.

The man that endeavors to be baseball's highest paid catcher in 2009 hasn't hit a lick this season. Not from the right side, the left side, at home or on the road. His .272 BABIP might portend improvement down the road but look a little closer. Applying THT's Line Drive percentage formula of LD% plus .120 of batting average, Varitek might actually be a little over his head on balls in play (his LD% is 12.2).

With a reputation for clutch play and leadership, it's particularly interesting to check out how Tek has performed in June with David Ortiz on the Disabled List. Heck if we want to discuss intangibles and evidence of doing the things teams need over and above what might be asked of you, let's compare him in June to the Unclutch Overlord himself, Nancy J.D. Drew.

          AVG   OBP   SLG
Varitek  .122  .205  .176
Drew     .337  .468  .848

I know the catcher position is thin in MLB these days, but the Sox better think long and hard before capitulating to the "but Posada got paid" line of crap the Boras camp throws at them this off-season.

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It doesn't get much more painful for the keyboard-toting baseball enthusiast living in Mom's basement than the bottom half of the eighth inning of Monday night's Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game. Down 3-2, the Reds pieced together a walk and a single to start the home half of the inning against the Bucs' Damaso Marte with Joey Votto (.283/.343/.483 in 2008), Edwin Encarnacion (.246/.332/.462) and Jay Bruce (.286/.356/.437) coming up. In 2,985 Minor League plate appearances, Votto lays claim to one (as in, one), sacrifice bunt. He has zero in the Bigs. Here is what unfolded:

Just as we intend to this season, Baseball Analysts profiled a number of soon-to-be draftees ahead of the 2007 Amateur Draft. We interviewed three position players and three pitchers, all drawing varying degrees of interest from Major League ball clubs. Among others, there was the uber-prospect, the seasoned college player, the signability guy and the player who had performed but failed to overwhelm scouts.

Let's check in with each of them to see how their professional careers have started out.

           PA   H   BB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Rk         28   7    1  .259  .286  .519 (2007)
A         102  28    7  .318  .392  .750 (2007)
AA        223  53   27  .288  .399  .592 (2008)

           PA   H   BB   AVG   OBP   SLG
A-         223  55  32  .296  .404  .441 (2007)
A          219  48  32  .267  .393  .483 (2008)

            PA   H  BB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Rk          31   2   1  .067  .094  .067 (2007)
A-          23   4   2  .190  .261  .190 (2007)
A           14   3   0  .214  .214  .429 (2008)

           IP    H  BB  SO  ERA  
A          31   20   9  29  1.74 (2008)

           IP    H  BB  SO  ERA  
A-        2.2    3   5   4 13.50 (2007)

           IP    H  BB  SO  ERA  
A-         35   32   9  37  2.04 (2007)
A          53   60  10  30  4.10 (2008)

As a Red Sox fan, I will confess to having my pets. Amongst my friends, I catch a lot of heat for this. As it relates to the current edition of the Sox, I have been accused of being a J.D. Drew "apologist" and heck, maybe I am. I loved Mark Bellhorn (remember, he was actually booed in Fenway Park during Games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS). Heck, I was clamoring from the hilltops for Roberto freaking Petagine to be given an honest-to-goodness chance as Kevin Millar lumbered through his hangover 2005 season. Petagine, who was given just 36 plate appearances for the big club in 2005, hit .327/.452/.635 for Pawtucket that season while Millar hit .272/.355/.399 for Boston. Newly acquired John Olerud rendered Petagine useless down the stretch in 2005 as far as Terry Francona was concerned.

Another such player was Byung-Hyun Kim, a guy I could not have been happier to root for after Boston acquired him on May 29, 2003, especially given that he was traded for the likes of Shea Hillenbrand. The addition of Kim paid immediate and season-long dividends for the Red Sox. He was phenomenal, as shown below.

           IP   SO   BB   H   WHIP   ERA   ERA+
Kim       79.3  69   18  70   1.11  3.18   147

And yet, as good as he was for the Sox in 2003, here is how he is remembered around these parts:

This shot was taken before Game 3 of the 2003 ALDS. Keep in mind the above numbers. You might also consider that from September 1 on in 2003, Kim had allowed opponents a batting line of .136/.208/.182. He had been tremendous down the stretch. And yet, he was crushed by the home fans when his name was announced. Why? A fanbase already weary of a player who had failed so famously at Yankee Stadium, remembered his four Blown Saves during 2003 better than they did his stellar performance on the whole for the season. Moreover, he was tagged with a Blown Save in Game One of the series and Boston returned home on the brink of elimination, down 2-0 to a powerful Oakland Athletics squad.

So what happened in Game One? Staked to a one-run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, Little hands Kim the ball to nail the win down. He promptly induces a Ramon Hernandez fly-out before walking Billy McMillon and hitting Chris Singleton. With men on first and second, he then strikes out Mark Ellis. With two outs, two men on and his best relief pitcher on the hill, what does Grady do? He pulls Kim in favor of Alan Embree with lefties Erubiel Durazo and Eric Chavez set to hit.

Here's what Little might have considered; Embree that season yielded a .696 OPS against lefties, compared to Kim’s .664. Further, Kim had been Boston's Closer and had just struck out Ellis! With one out remaining and a one-run lead in the ninth, Grady opts for Embree, who promptly gives up a single to Durazo which plates the game tying run. Because the run is charged to Kim, he gets the Blown Save. Oakland wins in the twelfth.

Of course after losing Game 2, a feisty (and dare I say a tinge racist) Boston crowd greets Kim for Game 3 with a chorus of boos. Grady capitulates and fails to use him for the remainder of the post-season. Yes, the very same Grady Little who would leave Pedro Martinez in the game too long in Game 7 of the ALCS just 12 days later.

Kim would never be the same after 2003, his age 24 season.

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There are two standout, surprise teams in the American League thus far in 2008 and they are not your garden variety May 13 standout clubs. The Oakland Athletics sit atop the AL West with a 23-16 record, also good for the best mark in the junior circuit. If only we lived in a pythag world, the A's would find themselves staked to a 4.5 game lead. By just about any advanced peripheral measure of the brand of baseball they have played, Oakland has been head-and-shoulders above the rest of the West. As it stands, they sit a half game up on the Los Angeles Angels.

Tampa Bay is 22-16 and their record more or less reflects the quality of their play. While the Rays got off to a start that seemed to affirm at least somewhat the optimism that some showed before the 2008 campaign began (hat tip to BP's PECOTA who were all over Tampa Bay), they have really begun to turn heads over their last five games. In one game north of the border in Toronto, three against the Angels and last night against the Yankees, Tampa Bay has won five straight. In the process they outscored their opposition 27-9.

A good quarter season, while not meaningless, tends not to portend what fans of hot-starters would like to think it does. Still, there are some measures we can take a look at to try and determine if Oakland and Tampa Bay's level of play might be sustainable. Put more accurately, we can analyze the parts of their play to date in 2008 that can be attributable to luck and/or flukiness, and which positive elements of their team composition appear legitimate and sustainable.

So let's dig in a little bit:

         AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS+
OAK     .254  .340  .366   102
TBR     .258  .328  .395   101 

Both teams thus far have featured slightly above average offensive attacks, not excessively influenced by batting average, a figure that can tend to mask deeper problems as team batting average will tend to settle into a narrow band. There is nothing in here that would seem to be of concern. Both teams should be able to sustain their respective batting averages, and Oakland in all likelihood has some upside opportunity in the slugging column.

Looking a bit more closely at items that can prove to be artificial determinants when applied over the long haul, we see that the A's are sporting a red flag of sorts.

         BABIP   BA/RSP
OAK      .295    .309
TBR      .292    .277
AL       .292    .271

Oakland is hitting .254 as a team, the league hits .271 with men in scoring position and Oakland is hitting .309 in these situations. It's unsustainable and minus improvement in other areas offensively, Oakland's run scoring will suffer. Fortunately for Oakland, there are reasons for optimism. Their 172 walks are best in the American League by a healthy clip. This suggests their fundamental approach at the plate is sound.

As far as specific individual improvement candidates go, the one that stands out the most is Travis Buck. He hit .288/.377/.474 in 2007 but in 71 PA's has mustered just a .154/.197/.277 line. He is in Sacramento now, and in limited action there he has yet to find his stroke. Continues regular time in AAA might help speed up a return to form by Buck, which would go a long way in mitigating any impending regression from others. Another hitter in the A's lineup from whom we can expect more is Daric Barton, the highly touted rookie. Barton is hitting a respectable .237/.342/.348 but keep in mind, this is someone who slugged .639 in his first 84 MLB plate appearances as a 22 year-old. He slugged .459 in his Minor League career while playing the majority of that time in very hitter unfriendly Sacramento.

For Tampa Bay, catcher Dioneer Navarro will not continue at his .362/.397/.449 pace but then Carlos Pena will not finish 2008 hitting just .209. Eric Hinske figures to cool off as well, but then Tampa Bay has received no production whatsoever from a middle infield that should improve significantly. Add up the good with the bad for this club and it all nets out to a place where this offense stays about as good as it has been; hovering around league average.

On the run prevention side, both clubs have been remarkable. Below we can take a look at their ERA+, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers and their respective Defensive Efficiency Ratings (DER). Though I imagine many Baseball Analysts readers do not need this primer, here are definitions of the latter two statistics from The Hardball Times stat glossary:

Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.

Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls.

         ERA+   FIP    DER
OAK      118    3.49  .706
TBR      109    3.90  .713
AL       100    4.17  .699

As you can see, both teams look entirely legitimate with regard to keeping runs off the board. Their peripheral numbers look great and they both appear to play very good defense. Keep in mind, too, that Scott Kazmir has made just two starts for the Rays while Rich Harden and Justin Duscherer (ok, maybe to nobody's surprise) have both missed time. One potential regression area for Oakland may be their bullpen (do yourself a favor and have a look at the season Santiago Casilla is having).

It's hard to imagine but it looks to my eyes at least that both Oakland and Tampa are entirely legitimate. They will both have tough fights on their hands in order to qualify for post-season play in the highly competitive American League but they have started the season on the right foot and both sure seem to feature the make-up of clubs capable of fighting through to the end.

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The first time Rich and I had occasion to meet up with one another was back in August of 2005. We took in a Red Sox / Angels game in Anaheim. Rich recapped that evening in this piece. The last time we got together was in February when I was in California visiting my wife's family. With my father-in-law and another friend of mine, we played golf at Trump National in Los Angeles (see below), a beautiful piece of property with all 18 holes overlooking the Pacific Ocean but a course design that leaves a bit to be desired (especially when you consider the exorbitant price).

In between, Rich attended both my engagement party and wedding (both in Long Beach, Rich's hometown), and we have been able to meet up a couple of other times as well when I was on the west coast.

Well, this weekend, Rich and I will be hanging out on my turf. Rich and his son Joe will be heading east for a dream father/son baseball trip that kicks off right here in Boston. Rich is posting his full itinerary tomorrow before he gets on the plane to Boston, but I just wanted to mention today that much of the next week's writings will be devoted to our time together here in Boston, and subsequently Rich and Joe's adventures thereafter.

It kicks off Sunday when we will be having breakfast with a few members of Boston's front office before the Rays/Sox tilt at 1:35. Check back tomorrow for more on the Lederers' trip east.

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In an effort not to further anger the estimable Buzz Bissinger, I think I am going to go with some straight data presentation today and steer clear of any opinion or interpretation. We are one month into the season, a fun point in time to look at the leaderboard, store it away and then revisit it once again in a few months and then again at the end of the season.

There are pretty much exactly six months in a MLB season. At the end of the year, it's fun to look at how teams and players fared on a month-to-month basis. A hot or cold June often goes unnoticed because it is just a portion of that team or player's productivity. June is no different than April, or at least it shouldn't be. What makes it different in terms of perception, however, is that one's April stats, on May 1, are his stats.

Anyway, just for fun, here are some miscellaneous leaders through the first month of the 2008 season.

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Offense

AL Team Runs

Detroit    142
Boston     136
LA Angels  134
White Sox  134
Oakland    134

NL Team Runs

Cubs       171
D-Backs    165
Dodgers    137
Cards      135
Phillies   133

AL OPS

DET  .792
TEX  .778
BOS  .774
LAA  .767
CHW  .749

NL OPS

CHC  .828
ARI  .813
STL  .788
PHI  .780
ATL  .778

AL Individual OPS

Quentin   1.052
Hinske    1.046
M. Ramrz  1.029
Kotchman   .999
Hamilton   .970

NL Individual OPS

Utley      1.195
C. Jones   1.145
Burrell    1.126
D. Lee     1.118
Pujols     1.117

AL Individual Isolated Power

Hinske      .347
Quentin     .321
M. Ramrz    .276
Crede       .269
Thome       .261
Hamilton    .261 

NL Individual Isolated Power

Utley       .405
Burrell     .348
Berkman     .347
D. Lee      .318
McLouth     .315

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Pitcing / Defense

AL Team ERA

OAK  3.22
TB   3.68
TOR  3.75
CHW  3.78
CLE  4.06

NL Team ERA

ARI  3.25
STL  3.41
LAD  3.56
NYM  3.66
ATL  3.68

AL K/BB

OAK  2.30
MIN  2.24
KC   2.12
TOR  2.02
CHW  1.98

NL K/BB

CIN  2.49
ARI  2.24
STL  2.19
LAD  2.18
HOU  2.03

AL Individual ERA

C. Lee      0.96
Greinke     1.25
Saunders    2.08
King Felix  2.22
E. Santana  2.48

NL Individual ERA

Volquez     1.23
Sheets      1.64
Lincecum    1.73
Webb        1.98
Peavy       2.09

AL Individual K/BB

Lee        16.00
Baker       5.40
Halladay    4.43
Beckett     4.14
Vazquez     3.70

NL Individual K/BB

Cueto     5.50
Santana   4.88
Wandy     4.80
Smoltz    4.50
Haren     4.14

AL Defensive Efficiency

BAL   .740
TB    .730
DET   .721
OAK   .718
BOS   .715

NL Defensive Efficiency

ARI  .737
PHI  .723
STL  .723
CHC  .722
ATL  .721

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What sticks out for me is just how much the cream has risen to the top in the National League early on while the AL leaderboard almost certainly does not look like what it will in September.

How about you? Who is for real? Who will fade?

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Though it's been said many times, many ways, one would find themselves hard-pressed to exemplify the merits of getting on base better than the Chicago Cubs of the last five seasons or so. Season after season, the likes of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Moises Alou, Sammy Sosa, Jeromy Burnitz, Jacque Jones, Alfonso Soriano and others have been banging out home runs for the Cubbies and yet, they have never really been among the Senior Circuit's most prolific run scoring teams.

Fans and baseball personnel alike, when acknowledging a quality offensive player, will often say, "that guy can hit." For different individuals, it means different things but it almost surely means that a player can put a nice swing on a baseball. Rarely - hell never - will you hear someone say "that guy can really create runs." And yet, that is all a baseball player is charged with when he has a bat in his hands. His mandate ought to be to do everything he can to help his team put runs on the scoreboard.

Jacque Jones has a gorgeous swing. A classic lefty, to witness Jones catch a fastball flush and yank it out to right field is to enjoy one of the most pure moments there is in baseball. Meanwhile, to watch Derrek Lee take four close pitches for balls while watching one strike go by can often lead to frustration. After all, it's not just chicks. We all dig the long ball.

But long ball has not been a problem for the Cubs, at least not for some of these recent Cubs teams. They have demonstrated proficiency in slugging the baseball, but have time and again fallen short in getting men on base. As a fan, this phenomenon does not necessarily trigger intuitive disappointment. Heading to Wrigley, witnessing a couple of four-baggers and a four run output by the home team makes for an entertaining evening.

What Cubs fans are now learning is that watching the Cubbies hang a bunch of crooked numbers on the board also makes for an enjoyable time at the Friendly Confines. Seven Cubs that log regular playing time have notched on-base percentages of greater than .380 in 2008.

            OBP
Fukudome   .463
Soto       .447 
Lee        .413
Johnson    .394
Ramirez    .392
DeRosa     .389
Theriot    .384

Avoiding outs leads to incremental opportunities for teammates and since most MLB'ers fall within a relatively narrow band of batting average output (say, .225 to .325 or so), more opportunities for other teammates means the law of averages will lead to more hits per game. Moreover, when you do not make an out it means you reach base so that those incremental converted opportunities lead to more players crossing home plate.

To take it a few steps further, strike zone management is critical even within the context of one plate appearance. Recognizing a ball and a strike allows a hitter to put a swing on balls that are tossed in there to be hit while letting pitches outside the zone to pass. Jacque Jones often flails at bad pitches because he must hit from behind in the count. Derrek Lee waits for his pitch and often creams it. The final benefit, one pointed out by John Dewan this week, shows just how helpful making pitchers throw more pitches can be. The more pitches you let go by, the more often you will get your pitch to hit, and the more pitches you see, as the game wears on you get into the dregs of other teams' pitching staffs (read: middle relievers) more quickly.

It would be difficult to overstate just how advantageous it is to field an offensive attack that possesses exceptional pitch recognition. Let's look at how Cubs teams have stacked up over the last five seasons in various critical offensive categories:

        SLG   OBP   RS   PA/BB
2004     2     11    7   11.74
2005     2     11    9   13.16
2006    10     16   15   14.67
2007     8      9    8   11.44
2008     5      2    1    8.46

The slug, on-base and run scoring numbers are National League rankings. The PA/BB number is simply their figure in that given season. The 2008 PA/BB number is an obvious outlier, just as their on-base and run scoring rankings are. The Cubs have slugged it in the recent past, but never put runs on the board like they have thus far in 2008.

Dusty Baker, the former Cubs Manager, has been on the record more times than we can seemingly keep track of touting the merits of "being aggressive" and denouncing those that reach base only to "clog" them. Presented with the data above, one has to wonder how even Dusty would explain the formidability of the 2008 edition of the Cubs offense.

These guys must really be able to "hit".

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Last Friday night I had a chance to watch my first full Red Sox game and I have to say, what struck me most was the awesomeness of the retro Blue Jays uniforms the home team sported. What also struck me was just how good the Jays might be this year. Their starting five is pretty close to as good as it gets in the American League and their bullpen has been excellent. Their team ERA is currently 3.69. The lineup has been inconsistent but the pieces are there to mount a steady and consistent offensive attack.

After the game while chatting with a friend who grew up in Toronto, we couldn't help but reminisce about the original Blue Jays that donned the powder blue's. Being b