Power-Hitting OF Ranks Among the Game's Elite

My eight-year-old nephew opened up a pack of baseball cards on Christmas Eve. My brothers and I gathered around him as he shuffled through the cards. When he came to Gary Sheffield, I said, "Future Hall of Famer". I proceeded to grab the card so I could inspect it further. One of my brothers (the father of my nephew) looked at me in disbelief as if I were holding a Matt Stairs card.

Well, as it turns out, my brother isn't the only one who thinks Sheffield isn't worthy of such status. Two weeks later, ESPN's Jayson Stark, in Explaining My Hall Ballot, wrote the following in justifying his decision not to vote for Jim Rice:

He was a power hitter who barely cracks the top 50 all-time in homers (382) and RBI (1,451). In fact, his career numbers (.298 avg., 382 HR) are almost identical to Gary Sheffield's (.299, 379 HR). And does anyone out there see Sheffield as a Hall of Famer?

Yes, I do. Why not? The case for Sheffield is certainly a much easier one to make than the one against him. Don't believe me? Let's take a look.

First of all, I would like to point out that Rice appears to be a borderline Hall of Fame candidate who, in time, may be selected by either the Baseball Writers Association of America or the Veterans Committee. Rice has garnered more than 50% of the vote in each of the past five years. According to a study by Mike Carminati at Mike's Baseball Rants, every player who has ever received at least 50% of the votes from the BBWAA has eventually been enshrined in Cooperstown other than Gil Hodges.

Rice's HOF qualifications can be summarized as follows:

Black Ink: Batting - 33 (49) (Average HOFer ~ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 176 (56) (Average HOFer ~ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 42.9 (116) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 147.0 (75) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

Rice meets three of the four standards as developed by Bill James, and he falls just shy of the fourth. I recognize that these metrics were designed by James to measure how likely a player is to gain admittance to the Hall of Fame and not necessarily how good they were. In any event, I believe these standards are a handy tool when reviewing the candidancies of retired players due to the fact that they encompass a wide range of quantitative and qualitative achievements.

Given James' follow-up work, it may make sense to add Win Shares to the above criteria when evaluating the worthiness of Hall of Famers. Rice ended his career with 282 Win Shares or 55 below the HOF average of 337 (as determined by Mike C.). As such, an argument regarding Rice's Hall worthiness can be made logically on or against his behalf.

With that behind us, let's now compare Rice to Sheffield.

CAREER COUNTING STATS

           G     AB    R     H    2B    3B  HR   RBI    BB    SO
Sheffield 1882  6729  1190  2009  356   23  379  1232  1110   796
Rice      2089  8225  1249  2452  373   79  382  1451   670  1423

Although the two sluggers have almost identical home run totals as Stark pointed out, Rice has played 207 more games and has had 1,496 more at bats than Sheffield.

CAREER RATE STATS

		 BA	 OBP	 SLG	 OPS	OPS+
Sheffield	.299	.401	.527	.928	147
Rice		.298	.352	.502	.854	128

Yes, Jayson, Rice and Sheffield have virtually the same batting averages, too. However, is batting average the end all when it comes to measuring the prowess of hitters? Is it really a better gauge than on-base percentage and slugging average? Welcome to the 21st century. Sheffield beats Rice in OBP and SLG and, by definition, OPS. For those of you who may be concerned about context given the fact that Sheffield has played in a higher run-scoring environment than Rice, the former's adjusted on base plus slugging (OPS+) is 47% above the league average whereas the latter's is 28% above the norm.

Get the broom out. It's a clean sweep. Sheffield has higher OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ totals. To the extent that Sheffield's rate stats decline slightly as he ages, he will more than make it up in his mounting cumulative totals. In fact, based on hitting 31 HR per year (a more than 10% regression from his five-year average), Sheffield will pierce the magical 500 plateau in 2007.

A season-by-season review of Rice's and Sheffield's OPS+ numbers shows that Sheff has topped his counterpart 12 out of 13 times (based on 300 or more plate appearances).

SEASONAL OPS+
(Ranked from High to Low)

Rice	Sheffield
158	   190
154	   178
148	   168
141	   167
137	   167
131	   156
128	   144
123	   140
123	   138
121	   134
117	   120
112	   116
102	    82
101

Sheffield has produced six seasons with OPS+ totals over 150 whereas Rice only had two such years. (I have found that the number of campaigns of 150 or more for corner outfielders and first basemen an interesting guide for comparing and evaluating players. There are usually just a handful of players with OPS+ ratings of 150 each season.)

The biggest difference between Rice and Sheffield is in the number of outs that these two players have generated over the course of their careers.

		PA	OUTS
Sheffield	8035	5067
Rice		9058	6221

Rice has created 1,154 more outs than Sheffield in only 1,023 more plate appearances. What does that all mean? Although I'm quite sure Yankee fans wouldn't be happy about it, Sheffield could basically go could oh-fer the next two seasons and not be any worse than Rice for his career. In a nutshell, the huge disparity in the number of outs between these two is the reason why Sheffield has been the more valuable offensive player. With respect to the rest of their games, Sheffield is by no means a lesser defensive player or baserunner than Rice. Therefore, his offensive superiority makes him the better overall ballplayer.

If Rice is a borderline Hall of Famer and Sheffield is shown to have superior credentials, then what does that make Sheffield? To borrow a page out of former vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen's playbook: "Jayson, I have studied Gary Sheffield. I know Gary Sheffield. Gary Sheffield is a great offensive player. Jayson, Jim Rice is no Gary Sheffield."

I'm sure some of you may be thinking, "That's great. Sheffield is better than Rice. But how does Sheffield compare to others?" For that, let's take a look at the incomparable Baseball-Reference.com's listing of similar batters through the age of 34.

SHEFFIELD'S COMPS

Duke Snider (922) *
Reggie Jackson (900) *
Billy Williams (898) *
Jeff Bagwell (885)
Dale Murphy (880)
Rafael Palmeiro (879)
Jim Rice (872)
Orlando Cepeda (865) *
Dave Winfield (864) *
Dick Allen (863)

* Signifies Hall of Famer

Based on James' definitions, Duke Snider and Reggie Jackson have similarity scores that can be described as "truly similar" to Sheffield through the age of 34. The remaining players can be described as "similar" or "essentially similar". Five of the eight players on the above list eligible for the Hall of Fame have already been inducted. The two active players stand an excellent chance of being voted in five years after their retirements. As such, seven of Sheffield's ten most similar players are either in the Hall of Fame or are HOF bound. (Interestingly, Rice is among the three who have not been enshrined. He could easily make it eight-for-ten, and it is not unreasonable to assume that Dale Murphy and/or Dick Allen may one day gain admittance to Cooperstown.)

OK, Sheffield is similar to these players but is he better? Good question. For the answer, let's turn to two of my favorite stats--Runs Created Above Average and Runs Created Above Position (both from Lee Sinins' Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia).

RUNS CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE
(Career, 1900-on)

                                RCAA      OBA      SLG      OPS    
1    Babe Ruth                  1795     .474     .690    1.164   
2    Ted Williams               1475     .482     .634    1.116   
3    Ty Cobb                    1369     .433     .512     .945   
4    Barry Bonds                1344     .433     .602    1.035   
5    Lou Gehrig                 1247     .447     .632    1.080   
6    Stan Musial                1204     .417     .559     .976   
7    Mickey Mantle              1099     .421     .557     .977   
8    Rogers Hornsby             1084     .434     .577    1.010   
9    Tris Speaker               1053     .428     .500     .928   
10   Hank Aaron                 1032     .374     .555     .928   
11   Willie Mays                1008     .384     .557     .941   
12   Mel Ott                     989     .414     .533     .947   
13   Jimmie Foxx                 985     .428     .609    1.038   
14   Honus Wagner                938     .394     .468     .862   
15   Frank Robinson              852     .389     .537     .926   
16   Frank Thomas                770     .428     .568     .996   
17   Rickey Henderson            763     .401     .419     .820   
18   Eddie Collins               747     .424     .429     .853   
19   Joe DiMaggio                708     .398     .579     .977   
20   Johnny Mize                 667     .397     .562     .959   
21   Mark McGwire                665     .394     .588     .982   
T22  Joe Morgan                  663     .392     .427     .819   
T22  Harry Heilmann              663     .410     .520     .930   
T22  Jeff Bagwell                663     .411     .549     .959   
25   Eddie Mathews               655     .376     .509     .885   
26   Edgar Martinez              651     .423     .525     .948   
27   Nap Lajoie                  649     .381     .455     .835   
28   Mike Schmidt                623     .380     .527     .908   
29   Willie McCovey              606     .374     .515     .889   
30   Sam Crawford                594     .362     .452     .814   
31   George Brett                593     .369     .487     .857   
32   Paul Waner                  588     .404     .473     .877   
33   Joe Jackson                 580     .423     .518     .941   
T34  Gary Sheffield              565     .401     .527     .928   
T34  Reggie Jackson              565     .356     .490     .846   
36   Rafael Palmeiro             562     .373     .522     .894   
37   Wade Boggs                  556     .415     .443     .858   
38   Willie Stargell             553     .360     .529     .889   
39   Hank Greenberg              549     .412     .605    1.017   
40   Carl Yastrzemski            547     .379     .462     .841   
41   Al Kaline                   546     .376     .480     .855   
42   Ken Griffey Jr.             535     .379     .562     .940   
43   Jim Thome                   528     .411     .568     .979   
44   Manny Ramirez               524     .413     .598    1.010   
T45  Tim Raines                  516     .385     .425     .810   
T45  Harmon Killebrew            516     .376     .509     .884   
47   Dick Allen                  511     .378     .534     .912   
T48  Tony Gwynn                  504     .388     .459     .847   
T48  Al Simmons                  504     .380     .535     .915   
T50  Larry Walker                492     .400     .567     .967   
T50  Pete Rose                   492     .375     .409     .784

RUNS CREATED ABOVE POSITION
(Career, 1900-on)

                                RCAP      OBA      SLG      OPS    
1    Babe Ruth                  1594     .474     .690    1.164   
2    Ted Williams               1246     .482     .634    1.116   
3    Barry Bonds                1218     .433     .602    1.035   
4    Rogers Hornsby             1094     .434     .577    1.010   
5    Ty Cobb                    1078     .433     .512     .945   
6    Mickey Mantle              1009     .421     .557     .977   
7    Honus Wagner                994     .394     .468     .862   
8    Stan Musial                 992     .417     .559     .976   
9    Lou Gehrig                  988     .447     .632    1.080   
10   Willie Mays                 856     .384     .557     .941   
11   Mel Ott                     831     .414     .533     .947   
T12  Hank Aaron                  822     .374     .555     .928   
T12  Eddie Collins               822     .424     .429     .853   
14   Joe Morgan                  820     .392     .427     .819   
15   Tris Speaker                777     .428     .500     .928   
16   Jimmie Foxx                 700     .428     .609    1.038   
17   Frank Robinson              674     .389     .537     .926   
18   Rickey Henderson            636     .401     .419     .820   
19   Eddie Mathews               633     .376     .509     .885   
20   Joe DiMaggio                629     .398     .579     .977   
21   Nap Lajoie                  617     .381     .455     .835   
22   Arky Vaughan                598     .406     .453     .859   
23   Frank Thomas                594     .428     .568     .996   
24   Charlie Gehringer           581     .404     .480     .884   
25   Mike Schmidt                576     .380     .527     .908   
26   Wade Boggs                  575     .415     .443     .858   
27   Edgar Martinez              568     .423     .525     .948   
28   Ken Griffey Jr.             532     .379     .562     .940   
29   Mike Piazza                 528     .388     .572     .959   
30   Jeff Bagwell                513     .411     .549     .959   
31   Johnny Mize                 512     .397     .562     .959   
32   George Brett                508     .369     .487     .857   
33   Mark McGwire                503     .394     .588     .982   
34   Gary Sheffield              487     .401     .527     .928   
35   Barry Larkin                481     .371     .446     .817   
36   Rod Carew                   476     .393     .429     .822   
37   Alex Rodriguez              474     .382     .581     .963   
38   Bill Dickey                 473     .382     .486     .868   
39   Harry Heilmann              469     .410     .520     .930   
40   Willie McCovey              468     .374     .515     .889   
41   Reggie Jackson              458     .356     .490     .846   
42   Joe Jackson                 449     .423     .518     .941   
43   Willie Stargell             448     .360     .529     .889   
44   Craig Biggio                445     .375     .432     .807   
45   Manny Ramirez               444     .413     .598    1.010   
46   Yogi Berra                  440     .348     .482     .830   
47   Joe Cronin                  431     .390     .468     .857   
48   Mickey Cochrane             425     .419     .478     .897   
49   Paul Waner                  415     .404     .473     .877   
T50  Robin Yount                 408     .342     .430     .772   
T50  Cal Ripken                  408     .340     .447     .788   
T50  Jim Thome                   408     .411     .568     .979

Sheffield ranks 34th in RCAA and RCAP. Of Sheffield's ten most similar players, only Bagwell ranks higher in RCAA or RCAP. That is, Sheffield has already surpassed the retired Snider, Jackson, Billy Williams, Murphy, Rice, Orlando Cepeda, Dave Winfield, and Allen in both key stats, and he has a lead over the still active Rafael Palmeiro.

Importantly, all the players eligible for the Hall of Fame who rank above Sheffield have already been inducted. In fact, every player listed in the Top 50 in both rankings has a plaque in Cooperstown with the exception of Allen.

Only 15 of the players ranked ahead of Sheffield in RCAA and 14 in RCAP have also produced career OBP of .400 or better, SLG of .500+, and OPS of .900+. It could be argued that Sheffield is among the best and most balanced hitters of all time.

Sheffield has also been a very consistent hitter. He is one of only ten players who have had six or more consecutive seasons with a batting average of .300+, OBP .400+, and SLG .500+.

NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE SEASONS
BA >= .300, OBA >= .400, SLG >= .500

1    Lou Gehrig               1926-37   12   
T2   Babe Ruth                1926-33    8   
T2   Stan Musial              1948-55    8   
T4   Harry Heilmann           1921-27    7   
T4   Frank Thomas             1991-97    7   
T4   Edgar Martinez           1995-01    7   
T7   Babe Ruth                1919-24    6   
T7   Tris Speaker             1920-25    6   
T7   Rogers Hornsby           1920-25    6   
T7   Chipper Jones            1998-03    6   
T7   Gary Sheffield           1998-03    6

All of the players eligible for the Hall of Fame listed above were enshrined long ago. Five of these six players (Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Tris Speaker, and Rogers Hornsby) are considered to be "inner circle" types. Of the three active players, Frank Thomas and Edgar Martinez should be shoo-ins for the Hall, and Chipper Jones is in the process of building a resume worthy of such hallowed status. (Interestingly, if not for Ruth's shortened season in 1925, he could have strung together a record 15 straight seasons of .300/.400/.500. In the meantime, the Babe will have to settle for second and seventh best--the only player to make the Top Ten twice.)

No matter how one slices or dices it, Gary Antonian Sheffield is in pretty exclusive company. Based solely on the numbers, it looks like the Sheff's Hall of Fame qualifications are made to order.