Baseball BeatMarch 23, 2004
Buy The Kid A (Soft) Drink
By Rich Lederer

The All-Baseball team has gathered around the table to discuss Miguel Cabrera's outlook.

I'm estimating that the talented youngster, who won't turn 21 until April, will follow up his rookie season with an even better performance in 2004. In fact, I asked the group if anyone would be willing to take the unders on the halfway point between my rate stat projections (.284/.344/.520) and those established by PECOTA (.264/.323/.439).

I'll propose the same friendly bet to my readers here. I've got the overs on .274/.333/.479.

What does your crystal ball say?

Comments

How about this line for a 21-year old corner outfielder?

.263/.302/.470 with 30 HR, 109 RBI, 39 BB and 114 SO?

Does that sound about right for Miguel Cabrera? In case you were wondering, that line is Ruben Sierra's 2nd year and Age 21 season. I'll bet he'll walk a few times more and get that OBP higher than Sierra's, but I think it's a fair comparison given the age, position, and size (Sierra's 6'1", 175 to Cabrera's 6'2", 180).

Posted by: Joe at March 23, 2004 6:07 PM

That's a good call, Joe. I think Sierra will be a good comp if Cabrera doesn't improve his BB/SO ratio. If he does, everyone will be raising their expectations well beyond Sierra.

Posted by: Richard at March 23, 2004 6:32 PM

Baseball Primer uses Willie Mays as a Cabrera comparable at the same age. That's the short line to the HOF.

Cabrera jumped to the top of my personal favorites when he stared down Roger Clemens after some chin music and then took Roger deep. Would I love to see this guy in a Red Sox uniform.

Posted by: Peter at April 1, 2004 4:31 PM