Hey Rich, is LB St. coach Mike Weathers getting any heat for his penchant of keeping Jered in games too long? I know Kevin Towers wouldn't mind seeing the Dirtbags bullpen being used more often on Friday nights!

If those season totals are accurate and Weaver has in fact thrown 122 innings already, I find it exceedingly unlikely he'd be pitching for the Padres (should they draft him) this year.

In fact, I can't imagine they'd have him throw many more innings in the minors either, depending on how far his team goes in the playoffs.

Hey Rich-

I read an article on Baseball American that was comparing the guy from Old Dominion, Justin Verlander, with Weaver. The link is here:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2004draft/040324verlander.html

The article says that Weaver has #3 starter ceiling in the majors whereas Verlander has the potential to be a dominant #1 starter in the majors.

You like to compare Weaver to Prior a lot, and I was wondering 2 things:

1.Are you only comparing Prior to Weaver in college ball, b/c a #3 starter Prior is not?

2.What do you think of Baseball America saying that Weaver is really only going to be a #3 starter?

Thanks!

-Baseball Savant

Somehow, Weaver had to share the conference pitcher of the year award.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-colrdp26may26,1,6762860.story?coll=la-headlines-sports

Another 120+ pitch count for Weaver on Friday (127 in only 6 1/3)....at this rate, not only am I pessimistic that he'll be pitching for the Padres at the end of 2004, but he'll have a dead arm and could have a rough start to 2005.

I agree with you, Joe. Weaver has thrown a lot of pitches over the past year, including 133 innings last spring (sophomore), 48 innings last summer (Team USA), and 128 innings thus far this year (junior) plus he will start at least once more in the Regionals next week.

If Weaver pitched as many innings this year as he did last year, he would have 53 to go. Assuming he pitches another 8 in college, he could conceivably have enough in his tank to throw about 45 or so in the professional ranks.

Based on a late June or early July signing, I could see Weaver making a couple of 4 or 5 innings starts at Double-A in mid-to-late July and, if all goes well, perhaps a half dozen 6-IP type outings in the majors in August and September. But that would be the max in my mind.

I also wouldn't be at all surprised if he decides to shut it down for the rest of this year a la Mark Prior with the idea of going to the big league camp next spring and then on to a short stint in the minors in April and May before being brought up in late May or early June. This approach would obviously be the safest way to go.

Baseball Savant: The "Polish or Stuff" argument is appropro here to some extent. Weaver's ceiling may be limited by having "good" rather than "great" stuff.

Weaver has outstanding command and control but only good stuff. Prior, on the other hand, has great command, control, and stuff, as well as great mechanics.

I've written in the past that their college stats have been pretty comparable. Up until Weaver's last outing, he had actually had superior numbers than Prior. Now they are pretty similar in so many respects (W-L, ERA, K/BB, K/IP, H/IP, etc.). Given the various adjustments, I would be inclined to call it a tie.

With respect to Weaver's upside, I compared him to Ben Sheets before the year began and received a couple of comments from readers who were surprised that I thought so little of him as to view him in the same context as Sheets. I can't help but wonder what those same readers are thinking now that Sheets has struck out 18 batters in a game and become one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball.

Well kids... he ain't perfect:

Erick San Pedro hit the first of four Miami home runs to hand Long Beach State ace Jered Weaver his first loss and lead the Hurricanes to an 8-5 win over the 49ers on Thursday night.
Weaver (14-1) entered the game leading the nation in wins, ERA (1.25) and strikeouts per nine innings (13.4), but he was roughed up by the Hurricanes for seven runs on eight hits in 6 1-3 innings. He did strike out 11 batters.

Wondering if this makes you guys doubt the level of competition Weaver's faced.

"Well kids... he ain't perfect"

Weaver may have had a "perfect" record but no one that I know of ever said he was "perfect". Mark Prior, who had previously been annointed the best college pitcher ever, even lost one game his junior season. 14-1 is nothing to be ashamed about, especially when the loss is against one of the most elite baseball programs in the country.

"Wondering if this makes you guys doubt the level of competition Weaver's faced."

No, not at all. Long Beach State had one of the top 20 toughest schedules in the country. Weaver faced Cal, USC, Baylor, Arizona, Wichita State, UCLA, UC Irvine, and Cal State Fullerton--teams that were all ranked in the top 25 at the time of his outing.

Weaver also was the ace on the Team USA last summer that won the silver medal. He is a two-time All-American and one of the most decorated pitchers in college baseball history. I think he has earned his accolades, pitching in pressure-packed situations and in front of scores of major league scouts during the past three years.

Rich,

Thanks for answering my questions! It's greatly appreicated!

I'm with you on the Ben Sheets comparison, and I can conceive what people are thinking if a comparison to Sheet is thinking negatively about a pitcher!

thanks again,
baseball savant