The 2004 QUAD Leaders
Now that the Most Valuable Player awards have been announced, I thought it would be interesting to compare the results of the voting with the offensive statistics that really matter. I'm not talking about batting average, home runs, and runs batted in, nor am I referring to a "great" stat like Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) or Win Shares--both of which have been widely quoted by members of the baseball blogging and analyst community as a means to support their MVP selections. The stats that I am referring to--times on base, on base percentage, total bases, and slugging average--can be tracked with each and every plate appearance and do not involve some complicated, impossible to recite formula. They may not be as sophisticated as some of the more advanced summary stats, but they are actual "counting" and "rate" stats (rather than derivatives) and are easily understood. The way to win baseball games is to score runs when at bat and prevent runs when in the field. With respect to the offensive end of the game, the four components of what I have previously called "The Quad" (TOB, OBP, TB, and SLG) are the true determinants of run production. Times on base and total bases measure quantity whereas on-base percentage and slugging average measure quality. Players who show up among the best quantitatively and qualitatively are those who are succeeding on a per plate appearance the most times over the course of a full season. There are multiple problems with the traditional Triple Crown stats (BA, HR, RBI). They ignore walks, treat doubles and triples the same as singles, and one of the three variables is highly team dependent. The Quad, on the other hand, measures the two most important components of run production--the ability to get on base and the ability to drive baserunners home. The former is covered via on base percentage (OBP) and times on base (TOB). The latter is covered via slugging average (SLG) and total bases (TB). It is also important to note that these stats are not team dependent. Another beauty of The Quad is that the components are the factors in calculating runs created, which is essentially nothing more than OBP x TB or SLG x TOB. Slugging average could be replaced by what Bill James calls "advancement percentage" (total bases divided by plate appearances) if one wanted to fine tune it and measure performance based on PA rather than AB. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let’s take a look at the National and American League players who did the best job of getting on base and accumulating bases (both in terms of the number of times as well as the percentage of times). TIMES ON BASE (N.L.) 1 Barry Bonds 376 2 Todd Helton 320 3 Lance Berkman 309 4 Bobby Abreu 305 5 Albert Pujols 287 6 J.D. Drew 281 7 Mark Loretta 275 8 Juan Pierre 274 9 Brian Giles 266 10 Adam Dunn 264 As shown, ON BASE PERCENTAGE (N.L.) 1 Barry Bonds .609 2 Todd Helton .469 3 Lance Berkman .450 4 J.D. Drew .436 5 Bobby Abreu .428 6 Jim Edmonds .418 7 Albert Pujols .415 8 Scott Rolen .409 9 Jason Kendall .399 10 Jim Thome .396 Not surprisingly, Bonds also led the league in on-base percentage. In fact, the Giant slugger set a major league single-season record, beating his two-year mark by .027. He now holds four of the top ten spots all-time. Ruth and The difference between Bonds and the second-place TOTAL BASES (N.L.) 1 Albert Pujols 389 2 Adrian Beltre 376 3 Todd Helton 339 4 Moises Alou 335 5 Adam Dunn 323 6 Jim Edmonds 320 7 Aramis Ramirez 316 T8 Vinny Castilla 312 T8 Bobby Abreu 312 10 Miguel Cabrera 309 SLUGGING AVERAGE (N.L.) 1 Barry Bonds .812 2 Albert Pujols .657 3 Jim Edmonds .643 4 Adrian Beltre .629 5 Todd Helton .620 6 Scott Rolen .598 7 Jim Thome .581 8 Aramis Ramirez .578 9 J.D. Drew .569 10 Adam Dunn .569 Yawn. Bonds once again shows up as the top dog. Although Bonds fell short of his single-season record of .863 set in 2001, his slugging average this past year was only the fourth time a player has exceeded .800. Bonds and Ruth hold the top six spots on the single-season list with three each. TIMES ON BASE (A.L.) 1 Ichiro Suzuki 315 2 Gary Sheffield 269 3 Johnny Damon 267 4 Vladimir Guerrero 266 5 Hideki Matsui 265 6 Melvin Mora 264 7 Manny Ramirez 263 8 Alex Rodriguez 262 T9 Michael Young 261 T9 Miguel Tejada 261 Everyone knows that ON BASE PERCENTAGE (A.L.) 1 Melvin Mora .419 2 Ichiro Suzuki .414 3 Travis Hafner .410 4 Jorge Posada .400 5 Eric Chavez .397 6 Manny Ramirez .397 7 Erubiel Durazo .396 8 Gary Sheffield .393 9 Vladimir Guerrero .391 10 Jason Varitek .390 TOTAL BASES (A.L.) 1 Vladimir Guerrero 366 2 David Ortiz 351 3 Miguel Tejada 349 4 Manny Ramirez 348 5 Michael Young 333 6 Ichiro Suzuki 320 7 Hank Blalock 312 8 Carlos Lee 310 9 Melvin Mora 309 10 Alex Rodriguez 308 SLUGGING AVERAGE (A.L.) 1 Manny Ramirez .613 2 David Ortiz .603 3 Vladimir Guerrero .598 4 Travis Hafner .583 5 Melvin Mora .562 6 Mark Teixeira .560 7 Aaron Rowand .544 8 Carlos Guillen .542 9 Carlos Delgado .535 10 Paul Konerko .535 In determining worthy MVP candidates, I like to look for players who led their league in these categories and/or finished in the top ten multiple times. I also tend to sit up and take notice when players other than 1B and corner OF show up on such top ten lists, especially when they are "plus" defensive types. Conversely, I discount those hitters who had the fortune of playing home games in extreme ballparks (i.e., Colorado and, to a lesser extent, Texas). In this regard, it is noteworthy that Bonds led the N.L. in three of the four categories. There have only been 31 different players covering 47 separate seasons who have led in three of the four legs of the Quad. Bonds has accomplished this feat five times. (For the record, 17 different players have earned "The Quad Award" by leading their respective league in all four categories. Six players have achieved this honor on more than one occasion--led by Ruth and Williams with five each.) No player in the A.L. led in more than one category. Guerrero, Mora, and Ramirez stand out for finishing first once and landing in the top ten in all four. Over in the N.L., only Helton and Pujols ended up in the top ten in each of these four areas. Suzuki had three top tens as did Among non-1B/DH/corner OF, Beltre, Edmonds, The following matrix provides a way to quantify the results of The Quad in a manner similar to the MVP voting (14 points for 1st, 9 for 2nd, 8 for 3rd, etc.). TOB OBP TB SLG TOT Bonds 14 14 14 42 Pujols 6 4 14 9 33 Helton 9 9 8 6 32 Edmonds 5 5 8 18 Berkman 8 8 16 Beltre 9 7 16 Abreu 7 6 2 15 Drew 5 7 2 14 Dunn 1 6 1 8 Rolen 3 5 8 Alou 7 7 Ramirez 4 3 7 Thome 1 4 5 Loretta 4 4 Pierre 3 3 Giles B 2 2 Kendall 2 2 Castilla 2 2 Cabrera 2 2 TOB OBP TB SLG TOT Guerrero 7 2 14 8 31 Ramirez 4 5 7 14 30 Suzuki 14 9 5 28 Mora 5 14 2 6 27 Ortiz 9 9 18 Hafner 8 7 15 Sheffield 9 3 12 Tejada 1 8 9 Damon 8 8 Young 2 6 8 Posada 7 7 Matsui 6 6 Chavez 6 6 Teixeira 5 5 A-Rod 3 1 4 Durazo 4 4 Blalock 4 4 Rowand 4 4 Lee 3 3 Guillen 3 3 Delgado 2 2 Varitek 1 1 Konerko 1 1 To the credit of the MVP voters, it looks like they got it right. Let's face it, Bonds was a no-brainer in the N.L. although, with only 24 of the 32 first-place votes, that means there were eight writers who should have joined Dorothy on her way to go see the Wizard of Oz in hopes of getting a brain. Incredibly, Guerrero received the same percentage of first-place votes (75%) as Bonds. He was a worthy honoree but in no way, shape, or form should have gotten the same respect as Bonds. Understand, I have no beef with Guerrero's selection and, in fact, picked him as the MVP in the Internet Baseball Writers Association Awards. As far as injustices go, look no further than Abreu, who finished tied for 23rd place in the N.L. voting, and Mora, who finished tied for 18th in the A.L. Only two out of 32 voters in the N.L. even saw fit to include Abreu in their top ten (one 9th and one 10th) and just two of 28 voters in the A.L. listed Mora on their ballots (one 8th and one 9th). The IBWA, on the other hand, placed Abreu and Mora 7th in the N.L. and A.L., respectively, with 25 and 26 of the 37 voters including them in their top ten. Let's hope that the two voters from the Baseball Writers Association of America who put I had Mora listed eighth on my ballot and, upon further review, now believe he warranted no worse than a fourth place finish (behind Guerrero, Defense and baserunning are also important elements and The Quad, by design, ignores pitching. Despite claims to the contrary, I'm not convinced that we have quantified defense down to a science yet. I think some of the advanced metrics are doing a good job at identifying the outliers, but they are not as reliable as hitting stats in my judgment. I think we run the risk that the public will never catch onto the latest alphabet soup of stats if we don't do a better job of bridging the gap between the "old" stats and the "new" first. The four measures referred throughout this article capture as well as anything the ability to get on base and drive runners around the bases--and isn't that what it is all about? There is a place for VORP, Win Shares, and other all-encompassing measurements, but they are much more esoteric than those stats that can be tracked with each and every plate appearance. If you can't recite the formulas to a friend sitting next to you at a ballgame, I advise you to stick to what can be more easily explained and understood. Maybe then--and only then--will more fans come our way. [Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.] |
Comments
Rich,
Seeing that Win Shares remain somewhat of a mystery to me (I've read how they work, but I simply decided to take Bill James' word for it in the end), I really enjoy stuff like this. I'm also baffled as to how Bobby Abreu continually escapes notice by pretty much everyone in baseball.
I have an unrelated question- could you post links to all of your Abstract abstracts on the sidebar or compile them elsewhere on your site? I missed some of them and I'm reluctant to go digging in the archives for them.
Posted by: Mike J at November 22, 2004 11:38 AM
Thanks, Mike.
Re the Abstracts From The Abstracts, I will link to them in my sidebar sometime this week. I was planning on doing that at the conclusion of the series but may as well proceed with this project now that you've asked.
Posted by: Rich at November 22, 2004 11:47 AM
http://www.all-baseball.com/richbeat/archives/015911.html
Copy that into your address bar and you should find links to the first seven abstracts, and the other last two are on the main page at the moment.
Rich, regarding advancement percentage, does a walk count as a total base?
Posted by: John Hill at November 22, 2004 11:48 AM
Great stuff....It's so simple yet it makes so much sense.
Posted by: AgRyan04 at November 22, 2004 5:46 PM
John, A walk does not count as a base in advancement percentage. James defined it as total bases divided by plate appearances. He used it in one of his runs created formualas.
Runs = (Advancement Percentage) x (Number of Times on Base)
The thinking is that a batter would get credit for a walk in the other half of the equation (times on base). James believed that hits plus walks represented a player's ability to get on base, while total bases represented his ability to advance baserunners. Ergo, walks are included in Times on Base but not Total Bases.
Posted by: Rich at November 22, 2004 10:03 PM
Well, I can't say I agree with advancement percentage then.
There's no real difference between a single and a walk when the bases are empty, other than the opportunity for fielding intervention (whether for good or bad, extra bases on an error maybe or gunning down the runner trying to stretch). Likewise, that's the only difference between a single where the runner doesn't go from first to third and a walk, or an infield single with first and second or the bases loaded and a walk, and so on. That formula though treats them as entirely different. Bonds would be ruined by it.
Posted by: John Hill at November 23, 2004 3:45 AM
A single is more valuable than a walk. To wit, between two teams with identical OBP, the one with the higher BA will score more runs than the other.
With respect to Bonds, a large number of his walks are with first base open so they rarely advance other baserunners. He gets full credit for the walk as a "times on base."
Posted by: Rich at November 23, 2004 11:41 AM
A single is more valuable than a walk in some situations, but not all, such as the ones I outlined before (none on, or where runners would be forced by a walk to the exact positions they assume after that single). In those situations, it seems stupid to me that a single counts both towards "times on base" and "advancement percentage" when a walk, which is no less valuable (unless you want to talk psychologically perhaps, or in terms of its impact upon the pitcher's arm), counts only towards "times on base". The rest of the time, say in a second and third situation, I can understand the distinction though.
Posted by: John Hill at November 23, 2004 12:40 PM
I understand your point, John. When baserunners are not involved, a walk is the equal of a single. However, when baserunners are involved, a walk is rarely the equal of a single. Therefore, I think it makes sense to distinguish between the two.
They are treated equally in OBP but a walk does not affect batting or slugging average. By definition, a player whose OBP is made up of singles rather than walks will have a higher OPS than the player whose OBP is made up of walks rather than singles.
Posted by: Rich at November 23, 2004 3:14 PM
Very true, though that's one of the reasons why OPS is a very crude (though still handy) measure.
Posted by: John Hill at November 24, 2004 8:55 AM