Editor's Note: If you came over today eagerly anticipating Rich's take on Jered Weaver's debut, he will have that up tomorrow. Expect plenty of commentary and "I told you so"s of the ex-Dirtbag's 3-inning, one run, four strikeout performance.

I must admit a soft spot. An inherant bias that, all too often, leads me to overrate certain prospects. The group, which adds many names annually, often includes players that become my favorites to follow in the minors.

Before the 2004 season, in what was my first publicized prospect list, Bobby Jenks was ranked as baseball's 31st prospect. Conversely, Jenks did not make the Baseball America list. This past January, I had Jose Capellan and Jonathan Broxton ranked 20th and 74th, respectively, against BA having them in the 25th and unranked spots. Ambiorix Burgos was on my breakout list before the year, when few others could get over his 75 walk season.

When you put these players side-by-side, it isn't surprising to find similar skillsets. All are rather large humans that are blessed with a hard and moving fastball, but cursed with poor control and a limited repertoire. Their fates were predictable for about as long as they have been noticed, as each has had his fair share of scouting reports reading, "possible forthcoming move to relief."

This is why I was not surprised when, in the course of the same week, Capellan and Broxton's fates were both altered. The writing had been on the wall, especially for the Brewer, who has had his second pitch (curveball) long criticized. He shined in the minors and even the Futures Game, after which I wrote, "Capellan threw his fastball from 95-98, using it on thirteen of his fifteen total pitches. His curve was rather unimpressive, and though this might depress Braves' fans, Capellan reminded me of a younger Kyle Farnsworth." An inauspicious Major League debut ensued (11.25 ERA in 8IP), when again, the Braves couldn't stop him from using that fastball too much.

When the Brewers acquired Capellan for closer Danny Kolb, I wondered if Doug Melvin got the best reliever. Another Armando Benitez, maybe, and one with a 'heavier' heater at that. But Milwaukee thought to leave him in the rotation a little longer, even after a Spring Training when Chad Moeller said, "He just needs a second pitch that he can throw consistently for a strike. He was pretty much a one-pitch pitcher today." After 12 decent-at-best starts in the International League, Capellan's time bomb went off.

As for Broxton, he faced a disadvantage that Capellan did not: organizational depth. With the Dodgers flush in starting pitching prospect, and Broxton not separating himself from the pack, a move could be afforded. The Bull has a big fastball too, and better yet, a good breaking ball on top of that. Put it together and what do you got? A reliever.

Adding fuel to the fire, Broxton's velocity increased in short stints, reportedly from 92-93 to 95-97. This is a nearly impossible happening to see coming, rather just an answer to a farm director's prayers. Who would have known that Francisco Rodriguez would take off when dropping his pitch count? Or to an even larger extent, Eric Gagne, the quintessential starter-turned-reliever story?

While even the Dodgers may not have seen Gagne coming, you can bet Dan Evans is still thanking his lucky stars the Blue Jays asked for Luke Prokopec in the Paul Quantrill trade. What Los Angeles did see, however, is the similarities between Gagne and Broxton when they were still starting at Vero Beach:

Name	ERA	H/9	K/9	W/9
EG	3.74	7.60	9.28	3.09
JB	3.23	7.71	10.10	3.02

The jury is still out on Capellan and Broxton, who have been told the move to relief will be a temporary one. But you can bet more outings like the two-inning, four strikeout performance Capellan had on 6/16 will gradually sell Melvin and DePodesta on a full-time move. And, of course, they might already by sold on it. Maybe the story of Chris Ray was enough to do that. Or maybe it was the early results of Kansas City's patchwork bullpen, or Jenks' newfound success. Whatever it was, if you ask me, these moves are far from temporary.

Ray won't be doing anything but relief from here on out, especially not after what the Orioles have seen. Once a marginal starting pitching prospect with a 3.65 ERA in 2004, short stints have helped the ex-Tar Heel jump over the likes of John Maine and Adam Loewen on the organizational ladder. In twenty-seven games in the Eastern League, Ray had a 1.10 ERA and a 37/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has since been called up to Baltimore, where he is showing an arsenal that principally includes a 93-97 mph fastball and hard, 80 mph slider.

Where Ray should quickly become B.J. Ryan's set-up man, his rapid ascent pales in comparison to Ambiorix Burgos. Despite a 5.05 BB/9 in the Midwest League least year, Burgos still managed a 4.38 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 133.2 innings. The big league stuff was there, so the Royals thought to start him in the bullpen at AA this year. With huge problems and a successful start (17K in 8IP) in the Texas League, Burgos was called up April 27.

Since then, Ambiorix has grabbed the Royals closer role. The results have been mixed -- trial by fire for sure -- but Kansas City must be enthused with his progress. They must also be excited that Burgos is joined at the back end of the bullpen with 2004 high-A pitchers Andy Sisco and Leo Nunez. 6-9 Sisco, the Royals Rule 5 steal, has thoroughly bounced back from a 2004 riddled with lost velocity and inconsistency. Nunez, who I once compared to Juan Cruz, has proven to be another heist since being acquired for 118 year old Benito Santiago.

While those are the early success stories, it fails to recognize the guys still honing the craft in the minors. I have already mentioned Bobby Jenks, who is now a long way from where he once was, being compared to Bartolo Colon and profiling to be his future teammate. Instead, arm and mental troubles led to his release from the Angels, where he was subsequently claimed by the White Sox. His new organization gave him the AA closer job at the beginning of the season, and are slowly prospering from their claim. In 33.2 innings this year, Jenks has struck out 40, allowed just one home run, and has an ERA that stands at 2.67.

The other two players I want to talk about are Colt Griffin and Manny Delcarman. Griffin was the Royals first round pick in 2001, following a high school season in which he hit 100 mph on the radar gun. He started all but four of his first 61 games, when Colt's ERA was 5.03. The Royals are now attempting to convert his stuff to the bullpen, though he isn't progressing as quickly as others in the KC system. Delcarman had to move because of system depth, and his results have been mixed. A few mixed-in bullpen blow-ups have left Manny's ERA at 4.11, but you can bet Theo Epstein is a lot more pleased with his 42 strikeouts in just over thirty innings.

Give a pitcher some big velocity, and maybe even a solid secondary offering, and no matter the control they have, a chance exists. It's akin to a catcher with fantastic catch-and-throw skills, who at the very least, will ened up as a back-up Major League catcher. Minor leaguers with questionable stuff, almost no matter how good their control is, do not have the luxury of leaning back into a relief role. No matter who is on the horizon of bullpen switches (Francisco Rosario? Renyel Pinto? Mark McCormick?), you can expect their organization to be swayed by history. For now, Melvin and DePodesta are the newest GMs left hoping the past does repeat itself, and that their flamethrowers become the next K-Rod, Gagne, Benitez or Rivera.

I'll be crossing my fingers.

Minor League Notes