Weekend BlogFebruary 24, 2007
Some Things Are Better Left Alone
By The Baseball Analysts Staff

  • In his latest Lies, Damned Lies article (subscription required), Nate Silver attempts to improve upon the Defensive Spectrum that Bill James created nearly 30 years ago. As much as I normally like Nate's work, his three-demensional version adds little or no value to the original spectrum. Worse yet, it is much more convoluted than James' KISS approach.

    James introduced the Defensive Spectrum (shown below) in the 1979 Baseball Abstract and elaborated on it in more detail than ever before in the 1982 Baseball Abstract.

    DH | 1B | LF | RF | 3B | CF | 2B | SS
    As a player grows older, and in certain other cases, he tends to be shifted leftward along this spectrum. Sometimes he moves in dramatic leaps, like Ernie Banks, a shortstop one year and a first baseman the next, or Rod Carew, from second to first. Sometimes he crawls unevenly along the spectrum, like Pete Rose. Sometimes, like Willie Mays, the only movement in a player's career is within the area covered by one position; that is, the player moves gradually from being a center fielder who has outstanding range to being a center fielder with very little range. But always he moves leftward, never right. Can you name one aging first baseman who has been shifted to second base or shortstop to keep his bat in the lineup?

    James conceded that certain young players whose position-specific skills are either undeveloped or under-utilized can move rightward but noted these shifts are always dangerous and often disastrous. He also pointed out the implications of the leftward drift in building a ballclub, including the need "to allow the talent at the left end of the spectrum to take care of itself, as it will, and to worry first about the right end."

    Silver states, "...while it's nice to dream of a day when every college will teach a Sabermetrics 101 course, and this poster will be hanging prominently on the wall, I know that probably won't be the case." Let's hope not. James' poster will more than suffice, thank you.
    - Rich Lederer, 2/24/07, 11:25 a.m. PST

  • Jason Varitek... Manny Ramirez... Dustin Pedroia... David Ortiz... Julio Lugo...

    One of these things is not like the other,
    One of these things just doesn't belong,
    Can you tell which thing is not like the others
    By the time I finish my song?

    Thanks to our good pals at Sesame Street, we see that Pedroia is the odd man out in the Boston Red Sox' lineup. The 2004 World Series champions have a veteran-ladened lineup, which does not often feature a raw rookie in its midst.

    The 5'9'' second baseman has only 89 at-bats in the majors and he struggled during his debut in the fall of 2006 by hitting .191/.258/.303. Even so, the Red Sox have seen enough to feel comfortable with Pedroia in the starting lineup.

    On the plus side, the 23-year-old walked seven times and also struck out only seven times in the majors. In fact, Pedroia has never struck out more than he has walked. Based on his minor league numbers, he has all the makings of a solid No. 2 hitter on a very powerful team.

    His career minor league numbers are .303/.392/.454 and Pedroia has the pedigree as a former second round pick in 2004, drafted 64th overall. In their 2004 draft preview, Baseball America stated:

    Pedroia's tools are below-average across the board, but people have learned not to sell him short. Scouts expect him to be a big leaguer, and probably an everyday player. He's not physically gifted at 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but Pedroia is a classic overachiever and possibly the best player in college baseball. He has a great work ethic and exceptional sense of the game. He's hard-nosed and competitive, and without peer as a team leader. He's a blood-and-guts player who thrives under pressure and makes everyone around him better.

    The only real threats to Pedroia's playing time are utility player Alex Cora and non-roster invitee Joe McEwing. It appears safe to say that Pedroia (barring injury or a complete collapse) will play a key role in the successes of the Red Sox this season. My guess is that he'll be in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting.
    - Marc Hulet, 2/24/07, 9:36 p.m. EST

  • There have been a number of questionable moves this past off-season, but the one team that continues to puzzle me the most is the Baltimore Orioles.

    The Orioles went into the off-season looking to make some noise in an effort to convince fans that they were serious about competing with Boston, New York and Toronto. But what they ended up with was a bunch of middle relievers past their prime and a couple of back-of-the-rotation starters.

    The haul:
    RHP Jamie Walker, 35, three years/$12 million
    RHP Chad Bradford, 32, three years/$10.5 million
    RHP Scott Williamson, 31, one year/$0.9 million
    RHP Danys Baez, 29, three years/$19 million

    RHP Jaret Wright, 31, $7 million in 2007
    RHP Steve Trachsel, 36, $3.1 million in 2007

    Honorable mentions:
    RHP Jeremy Guthrie (waivers), C Adam Donachie (Rule 5) and OF/IF Freddie Bynum (minor trade)

    The funny thing is that Baltimore traded young reliever Chris Britton away (for Wright), who may be a better option than any of the four veteran relievers they brought in.

    As well, they did nothing to address their offence, which placed (in the American League):
    10th in Doubles
    12th in Triples
    11th in Homers
    11th in Total Bases
    8th in On-Base Percentage
    10th in Slugging Percentage
    7th in Average

    Another puzzling thing is that one of Baltimore's better power threats, Jay Gibbons, is feeling ignored by the Orioles. Instead of giving Gibbons a shot to prove himself defensively, they continue to trot out the declining Kevin Millar to first base.

    "It doesn't appear that I will get a fair shot, and that is all I am looking for," Gibbons said. "I don't know what the reasoning is. I am not going to pout about it. I am here, and what I really want is to win. But do I think I should be given a shot to win a job? Absolutely. Why not?"
             AVG   OBP   SLG  VORP
    Gibbons .277  .341  .458  11.8
    Millar  .272  .374  .437  15.5
    

    The stats are similar, but Gibbons' ceiling is arguably much higher... especially with the power numbers.

    For a team that is already struggling to convince players to come to Baltimore (even for above-market offerings), the player grumblings do not help.

    - Marc Hulet, 2/25/07, 5:22 p.m. EST

  • Comments

    When the White Sox picked up Ron Santo for the final season of his career, they mvoed a Gold Glove 3B to 2B to accomodate Bill Melton, who was far inferior to Santo defensively.

    The move was a bust, with the normally powerful Santo hitting just .221 with only 5 HR in 370-plus at-bats. He was definitely out of place at 2B.

    I'm with you. I'm at a loss to understand why that busy chart is an improvement over James' continuum. I guess it does add the "catcher," but I don't know how accurate that assumption might be, since catchers who move to a position other than 1b also seem to move with some frequency to 3b, as well as the outfield.
    When I think about shifting from the catcher position, it brings to mind Craig Biggio. He started at catcher, moved to 2b, then moved to CF, then moved to LF, and then moved back to 2b for this his 3d year since he moved out of the outfield. I don't think either James' or Silver's version of the spectrum accounts for that.

    I know this doesn't really count but when i was younger(born in 1991 ) Chuck Knobloch who at the time played for the Yankees moved from second base to centerfield and then left field. Oh the Pedroia thing it gets me so angry that i just want to break something, we had Loretta who started in the all-star game nad he wanted to come back and he was willing to play first or second. But we have to make stupid move every year.

    I don't care how well Pedroia's hitting numbers were in the minors especially strike outs all they are in the farms are a bunch of throwers not pitchers who make veterans look foolish. Plus Kevin Millar had a triple crown in the minors and in 2005 he had only 9 homers in 134 games so i am not buying into the minor league stats when you can easily get a veteran like Mark Loretta.

    James' spectrum is of course more simple. But it's also incomplete, and in a couple of cases incorrect. 3B is not to the "left" of 2B -- players move from 3B to 2B about as often as the reverse. So the two positions should be on the same level, however you want to visualize the spectrum. Nor is CF to the "right" of 3B. CFs move to LF or RF (or 1B), but almost never to 3B. There are several overlapping trajectories, not a single continuum. And Silver's poster does a pretty good job of mapping what actually happens.

    I would think that Pedoria is likely to suceed as a major leaguer but top 3 in the ROY is fairly optimistic espically considering that Delmon Young and Alex Gordon alone should lock up 1/2... and i would be suprirsed if he ends up with a OPS over .8

    Perhaps those saying top 3 ROY are accounting for the fact that his style of play makes people think of Eckstein and we know how a lot of sportswriters orgasm over Eck.

    I like Pedroia, too. I saw him get his first big league hit last year in Anaheim. Here's what I had to say last August:

    One can't help but notice Pedroia's smallish size. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, the 23-year-old infielder does himself no favors in the looks department with his baggy pants. Nevertheless, the guy can play. The 2003 Pacific-10 Player of the Year started one game at shortstop and the other at second base. He played well in the field and squared up the ball several times at the plate (although you might not know it by looking at his 2-for-18 results through Sunday). To his credit, Pedroia has always had more BB than SO every stop along the way going back to his freshman year at Arizona State. We're not looking at a superstar in the making but don't be surprised if he becomes a serviceable every day player.

    My guess is that Pedroia will wind up hitting eighth or ninth more often than not this year (although I think he would also make a good #2). I believe he will have some competition for AL ROY with a certain teammate of his.

    Mark Loretta of the .255 EQA and 361 .SLG despite playing half his games in Fenway? Yeah, can't see why Boston wouldn't want a second helping of that action instead of playing one of the game's best middle infield prospects.

    It surprises me that no one has described Pedroia as another Eckstein. But that's what this discussion seems to say.

    How can you mention Pedroia's performance last year and not mention his .188 BABIP? They guys was jut plain unlucky. And if you are going to compare him to Eckstien, compare him to a better version of Eckstien. One with more power, and a higher OBP. Bill James and CHONE both project him as having a higher RC/27 then Eckstien has ever had. And its his rookie season. The guy will never be an All Star, but the sox don't need another all star. They need a solid second baseman for the league minimum, so that they can afford all those other all stars. And wishing for Loretta back? Might as well have a cardboard cutout stand at second base for all the range he has. And his hitting wasn't much better.

    Well said Karl, especially "The guy will never be an All Star, but the sox don't need another all star. They need a solid second baseman for the league minimum, so that they can afford all those other all stars." As a Red Sox fan, I couldn't agree with you more.

    As far as the Eckstein comps, being a small, overachieving 2B is where it stops. While Eckstein runs better, his career years have been 8 HR with an OBP of .360. Pedroia ought to flirt with .380 every year and will have a few seasons of 10+ HR.

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