Nice article, this is also a good time in the season to try and sort between contenders and pretenders.

That said, there are plenty of individual points made here that don't sit well with me. The first point may not be as significant, but...the Mets have been the most dominant team in the NL. I'd hate to see what would happen to the likes of Maine and Perez (ouch, especially Perez) against Boston's and New York's lineups.

While the slugging percentage may be a little much, I don't see why Green can't sustain his performance. He USED to be that kind player, and perhaps he's finally gotten back to a comparable point. The same thing goes, to a lesser extent, for Gonzalez; his OBP especially should remain about where it is for the duration of the season.

Boston's bullpen shouldn't stay that good, and Wakefield's value has never been in raw dominance like he has shown so far (he certainly won't stay right there, although he could surprise and not stray too far), but how could you possibly be so sure about Beckett? Isn't that exactly what people have expected from him for a good decade now, and isn't that what Boston paid a bundle for? I'd like to think he'll not only sustain those numbers but continue to put them up for the next 5 years or so.

Jeter's and Abreu's slugging numbers are both too low, but beyond that the numbers for the pair, as well as for Cano, are not far from what actually should be expected from them. Damon will certainly improve, but other improvement from those guys shouldn't be counted on too much.

Lastly, I would actually agree with Giles being put in the spot he's in. While nobody can be sure what kind of power numbers he'll produce, his true value has always been in his OBP, and there is no way his will stay that low.

I don't think Lugo's numbers are that far below his career norms. Boston's offense could make better use of him at the bottom of their lineup. That would probably be the quickest way to fix their offensive problems.

Braves haven't lost a series yet, took TWO of TWO series from the 'most dominant team in baseball', as you say, and you don't even have them listed in your top 5.

What the heck are you looking at? Sure, the Braves have a few questions...but not more than any other team...and they share first place.

The Braves definitely may be one of the 5 best teams. It's just their run differential comes in beneath the others and their 93 ERA+ pitching staff thus far in 2007 scared me off a bit.

Still, they may belong ahead of the Yanks and Pads here. No vehement counter-argument here.

Thanks for the comment.

" I'd hate to see what would happen to the likes of Maine and Perez (ouch, especially Perez) against Boston's and New York's lineups."

As seen in ST, Perez totally dominated Boston's lineup with Ortiz & Ramirez striling out 2X each...

AL East is not as good as it is cracked up to be and both the Yankees & red Sox have holes in many elements of their game... As far as with Boston they have a shaky rotation, and just wait for the second go through with their import to see if he really has the stuff...

If Boston's rotation is shaky, whose is good?

Let's be realistic, Matsuzaka is starting to be caught up with (Yes he will be good, but not a savior), Schilling is becoming pedestrian, Wakefield, his era is 2 pointlower than his career and only expect it to get worse... and Beckett, well he'll be good for 15-18 starts before he's on the DL... And last but nit least, Taveres... enough said...

1. D Matsuzaka - 4.00

2. C Schilling - 3.81

3. T Wakefield - 2.08

4. J Beckett - 2.55

5. J Tavarez - 8.36

No team has a solid 1-5 this year

Padres' 2006 bullpen stats:

Cla Meredith: 50.2 IP, 1.07 ERA
Trevor Hoffman: 63.0 IP, 2.14 ERA
Scott Cassidy: 42.2 IP, 2.53 ERA
Brian Sweeney: 56.1 IP, 3.20 ERA
Alan Embree: 52.1 IP, 3.27 ERA
Scott Linebrink: 75.2 IP, 3.57 ERA

Don't be surprised if Towers has again amassed the best bullpen in baseball...

As a whole, Boston's starting pitchers are among the best in the American League, if not all of baseball. Opinions are opinions. But facts are facts.

Among its AL brethren, the Red Sox are 3rd in SP ERA (3.61) and BAA (.235), and #1 in K/BB (3:1). For context, the league averages are 4.45, .263, and 2:1. The numbers are even more impressive when you adjust for ballpark and competition, but I'll let them stand on their own merits now and am willing to do the same at the end of the year.

Of Jeter, Cano, Abreu and Damon, only Damon figures to get better.
Jeter is exactly on his career averages of BA and OBP. His SLG is due to rise in the 400's--he's only a homer or two off pace.
Abreu has been losing power for 2+ years now. I can see a slight bump in OBP, but not much in SLG. From watching him he looks like he's turned into a slap hitter.
Cano doesn't have a track record to go on like the other 3, but it's unrealistic to expect another .340 season from him. And since he doesn't hit for much power, his 06 SLG percentage looks like a career year to me.
Damon should improve alot, though.

Again, to be realistic:

Beckett – career 3.81 era
Wakefield – career 4.28 era
Schilling – career 3.44 era
Tavarez – career 4.39 era ( 4.79 as a starter, with his last year as a full time starter being 2002 with the Marlins and posted a 5.39 era)
Matsuzaka - unknown since it is unsure what he will actually equate to.

Vincent, you sure seem bent on putting the Red Sox down...I don't really get it.

If it's a debate you want, though...first, what is "ST"? I stand by what I said about Perez and the Mets' staff...the Red Sox have beem known to have REALLY bad offensive games semi-regularly, especially against lefties, but over the course of a season their offense is usually right up there with the best. No matter what, though, they're patient, the kind of patience few NL teams have...and Perez has been known to have some command...problems. That's not even starting with the other AL East teams, most especially the Yankees...what would Perez do with their lineup? 8 walks in 4 innings?

As for the rest of the Boston staff...good to see you pull out some very shallow analysis. Schilling is "pedestrian", even though his numbers are excellent following his first start (the first start of the year, in cold weather, where he obviously didn't have any of his pitches...he's been 100% different and right about normal since then)? As I said above, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Beckett has simply, finally, arrived at his potential. He probably won't stay this good, but why would a nice low 3.00 ERA be so difficult? Matsuzaka has been everything that was advertised...I don't know why you think he's supposed to be a "savior" (he isn't), but he's been excellent against everyone except the Yankees...and he's been solid with them too. You might not have been paying attention, but the majority of the damage the Yankees gave him in the Fenway start came off two weak bloopers by Giambi off of pitcher's pitches...that happens to even the best.

Wakefield does what he always does, some mediocre starts with some gems mixed in, but he'll eat innings and keep the team in a lot of games...I'll take that out of a fourth starter. As for Taveras, he's not going to be starting for much longer, so no matter what he does or doesn't do, there will be changes there. But out of a fifth starter, in April, who cares?

Come back with some valuable comments next time, not just some random musings, please.

P.S. The Red Sox "have holes in many elements of their game"? Do tell what they are, I don't see them!

Peter, look at things objectively...

Let’s address each :

First we’ll take Matsuzaka

APR 05
@KC 1 0 1.29 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 6 1 1 1 1 10
APR 11
SEA 0 1 2.57 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 8 3 3 0 1 4
APR 17
@TOR 0 1 2.70 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 3 2 2 0 3 10
APR 22
NYY 1 0 4.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 8 6 6 1 1 7
APR 27
@NYY 1 0 4.36 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 5 4 4 0 4 7

5 starts, 2 of which against KC & Seattle & 3 against AL East.
To say excellent is an overstatement, excellent in the 1st against KC, serviceable in the 2nd against Seattle, and good SO total against Toronto…
The rationale is if a team pays 50+M for an unproven pitcher they are assuming him to be their ace (or close to). What I see here, cutting through the “hype” is a good pitcher, who may or may not do it. It will be interesting to see where all ends up once teams have a line on him.
The numbers speak for themselves.

Second we’ll take Beckett

APR 04
@KC 1 0 1.80 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 2 1 1 0 4 5
APR 10
SEA 1 0 1.50 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 2 1 1 0 0 8
APR 16
LAA 1 0 1.50 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 6 1 1 1 1 5
APR 21
NYY 1 0 2.55 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.2 9 5 4 0 2 7
APR 26
@BAL 1 0 2.48 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 8 2 2 0 0 3

5 Starts. 2 of which against KC & Seattle, and yes he has been impressive this year. The concern I have with Beckett is that he has previously had hot starts in 04 & 05 with the Marlins and ended with a mid to high 3.00 era and not had more than 29 starts. With stints on the DL both years.

Thirdly we’ll look at Schilling

APR 02
@KC 0 1 11.25 1 1 0 0 0 0 4.0 8 5 5 0 2 5
APR 08
@TEX 1 0 4.91 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 4 1 1 1 1 6
APR 14
LAA 1 0 2.84 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 4 0 0 0 1 4
APR 20
NYY 0 0 3.81 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 8 5 5 2 1 5
APR 25
@BAL 1 0 3.27 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 5 1 1 1 2 3

3 good starts, and 2 pedestrian starts. The concern is the drop in his SO ratio. When I said that he is looking pedestrian, this is said in comparison to Schillings past performances circa 01 – 02 – 03 -04. When watching his performances this year from an OBJECTIVE standpoint, there seems to be something missing.

As far as with Wakefield you are absolutely right, and he will have good & bad...

And Tavarez...

In regards to Perez, he has shown some real improvement

APR 06
@ATL 1 0 1.29 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 5 1 1 1 0 6
APR 11
PHI 0 1 3.72 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.2 1 3 3 0 7 2
APR 21
ATL 1 0 3.31 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.2 9 2 2 0 0 9
APR 27
@WSH 0 1 3.86 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 8 4 4 1 0 9

His start in Philly is awful on a 40° night. His other 3 starts, 2 of which against a good hitting Atlanta team and the last against Wash. Where he gave up a 3 run hr in the 1st and then settled down… (If not for miss managing in the 6th by Randolph by allowing him to bat for himself with the bases loaded he would have a no decision or a W)

Peter, also note that other than in the Philly game where Perez gave up 7 walks, he hasn't walked a batter in the other 3.