Baseball BeatApril 20, 2007
Open Chat: Overs and Unders
By Rich Lederer

In honor of my favorite baseball manager, I've put together a Baker's Dozen of over/under lines for player and team events. Your job is to pick out one or two or all of them if you'd like and let us know the correct answers in the comments section below. Please include the biggest lock of 'em all while you're at it.

Powered by a toothpick, here goes...

  • Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR?

  • Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR?

  • Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756?

  • Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600?

  • Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300?

  • Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing?

  • Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start?

  • Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start?

  • Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start?

  • Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start?

  • Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro?

  • Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average?

  • Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses?

  • Comments

    Under on both the Yankee items: Mr. April will come back to earth, while Phil Hughes dominated his last time out and they need starters in the Bronx.

    Hamilton - under (19 HR)

    Sosa - under by June 30.

    Mauer - over (.338)

    Nats - very close either way (106 to 110 losses).

    # Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR? - Over (Take that, Yankees)

    # Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR? - Under

    # Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756? - Under

    # Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600? - Over (he's hitting, what, .200?)

    # Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300? - Under

    # Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing? - Under (Typical Phillies....)

    # Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start? - Over (Use caution please, Seattle!)

    # Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start? - Push (ehh. Just get it over with!)

    # Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start? - Under (Sabes will push him, prolly too hard)

    # Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start? - Over (Although it would be funny to see the Yankees bring him up too early)

    # Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro? - Under

    # Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average? - Under (That's just tough to do....)

    # Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses? - Push (That's a lot of losses... although they really are bad, plus they're in a stacked division)

    Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR? OVER

    Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR? UNDER

    Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756? UNDER

    Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600?
    OVER

    Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300?
    UNDER

    Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing?
    OVER

    Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start?
    OVER

    Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start?
    UNDER

    Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start?
    OVER

    Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start?
    UNDER

    Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro?
    OVER(Doesnt Sign)

    Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average?
    UNDER

    Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses?
    OVER

    The biggest lock is either the Nationals losing over 108 games or Scherzer not signing.

    # Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start? - Over (Although it would be funny to see the Yankees bring him up too early)

    What does the last part even mean? The kid is ready now.

    OK here goes:

    A-Rod: Over (only needs 40 more over his next 148 games)

    Hamilton: Under (not quite buying yet)

    Bonds: Under (he looks so good thus far)

    Sosa: Under (he's really surprised me but he still has a little pop)

    Glavine: Under (the Mets look awesome)

    Manuel: Under (Philly environment swallowing him whole)

    Hernandez: Over (They'll play it extra cautious)

    Clemens: Under (hunch)

    Lincecum: Over (they will wait too long for some gaping whole to manifest itself)

    Hughes: Under (the Yanks will not wait too long)

    Scherzer: Over (The D-Backs will not have their hand forced with the other 9,000,000 prospects they have)

    Mauer: Under (just tough to hit for that high of a BA)

    Nats: Over (pains me to say it...but they are just awful, and playing in a very tough division)

    Rodriguez: over
    Hamilton: over
    Bonds: under
    Sosa: over
    Glavine: over
    Manuel: over
    Hernandez: under
    Clemens: over
    Lincecum: over
    Hughes: under
    Scherzer: over
    Mauer: over
    Nationals: over

    Hughes: Under. One more good start and the Yankees' confidence will be just high enough to give them the start in the midst of their panic.

    Nationals: Under. They may be awful, but they haven't been a 108-loss team thus far. When the rotation becomes as close to stable as it can, Johnson returns, and Zimmerman produces (go Wahoos!) they won't be nearly that bad.

    Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR? UNDER

    Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR? OVER

    Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756? UNDER

    Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600? OVER

    Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300? UNDER

    Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing? OVER

    Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start? OVER

    Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start? UNDER

    Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start? OVER

    Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start? UNDER (lock)

    Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro? OVER

    Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average? UNDER

    Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses? UNDER

    Sean...

    your comment about Hughes makes no sense. If the Yankees were in panic mode, Hughes would be in the majors already! I take the definate UNDER for Hughes. Cashman is not going to rush him at all and will look for any excuse not to bring him up unless/until he gets on a roll like he did last season in AA.


    Re: Hamilton... I have no clue what he will do this season. Sometimes they say he won't be in the lineup everyday, then they say he will be moved around and play 3 different positions to play almost everyday. I say it's probably UNDER 25 HRs.

    A-Rod, over 50 HR. For some reason, people seem to be surprised that he's a good hitter.

    Hamilton, under 25 HR (beware small sample sizes). Ian Kinsler's a better question. I say under, but I wouldn't be surprised with over.

    Bonds, who cares? Probably under and perhaps it's just best to get the inevitable over with.

    Sosa, after July 30th, although not much after. Just a guess.

    Glavine, I hope before, if only to reward a classy and deserving guy (I say that as an Indians fan who had his heart broken by Glavine's Braves in 1995)

    Manuel, he'll make June. Over.

    King Felix, if there's one thing Mike Hargrove is not, it's a risk-taker. Over.

    Clemens, sigh. Under.

    Lincecum, May 15 is a little early to panic. He'll be up this year, but within the next three weeks.

    Hughes, the thing I said about panic? Doesn't apply in Yankee Stadium. Under.

    Scherzer, not really my area. Mark Fydrich has apparently been reincarnated, although to the best of my knowledge, he's still alive. Blind guess: over.

    Mauer, under. Although I wouldn't actually lay money on that one.

    Nats: A buddy of mine lives in D.C. I'll be kind and say under. Over/under 2012 before the Nats are politely "returned" to Montreal anyone?

    Here's my two cents:

    a.Rod - Over
    J. Hamilton - Over
    Bonds - Under
    Glavine - Over
    Manuel - Under
    Felix - Over
    Clemens - Over
    Lincecum - Under
    Hughes - Over
    Scherzer - Over
    Mauer - Over
    Nationals - Over

    Biggest Lock: Felix Hernandez. The Mariners will always be conservative with him, so I'm guessing around May 20th for his next start.

    # Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR?
    Over!
    # Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR?
    Under...this season
    # Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756?
    Under...late July
    # Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600?
    Over
    # Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300?
    Under...with the Mets' offense, it'd be hard not to
    # Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing?
    Under...he's outta there in two weeks
    # Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start?
    Over
    # Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start?
    Over...md-July
    # Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start?
    Under...you can't keep him down!
    # Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start?
    Over
    # Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro?
    Over...he's going to hold out for the draft
    # Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average?
    Over (.368)
    # Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses?
    Under (barely)

    Alex Rodriguez: over or under 50 HR? Over
    Josh Hamilton: over or under 25 HR? Under
    Barry Bonds: over or under August 15 for HR #756? over/after
    Sammy Sosa: over or under June 30 for HR #600? under/before
    Tom Glavine: over or under July 31 for Win #300? under/before (this is a given, a virtual lock)
    Charlie Manuel: over or under Memorial Day as the date of his firing? under/before
    Felix Hernandez: over or under May 8 for his next start? over/after
    Roger Clemens: over or under June 22 for his next start?
    Over/After... or Not Applicable
    Tim Lincecum: over or under May 15 for his first big league start? under/before
    Phil Hughes: over or under July 1 for his first big league start? over/after
    Max Scherzer: over or under May 31 to sign and turn pro? under/before
    Joe Mauer: over or under .333 batting average? over
    Washington Nationals: over or under 108 losses? under

    So...why is it no one thinks the Royals will lose more games than the Nationals???

    To be honest, I'm taking the OVER for Bonds.
    Not only that...I'm making it my #1 lock!

    Before you call me crazy, consider a few things. I, for one, don't like how he's been hitting his homers so far. Seems more like some really bad pitchs that are easy for him to lock on to, and I doubt he'll keep getting them. But more importantly...you can't take his current pace and just project it out, or anything even close to that. We've seen many players labor more and more the closer they get to a milestone or record, and that could easily happen to Bonds. We also can't be sure if/when pitchers start giving him the treatment of 2001-2003 and walk him twice or more a game, either through fear or scorn.

    I have to sadly admit that it looks like he'll get there eventually, but I'm going with the over for that date.

    A-Rod 50 Homers - Over (54)
    Hamilton 25 Homers - Under (23)
    Barry Bonds Aug 15 - Under (Mid-July)
    Sammy Sosa June 30 - Under (In June)
    Tom Glavine July 31 - Under (Mid-July)
    Charlie Manuel Memorial Day - Over (off-season
    Felix Hernandez May 8 - Over (Probably soon after)
    Roger Clemens June 22 - Over (Early July, prob signed by June)
    Tim Lincecum May 15 - Over (Late June)
    Phil Hughes July 1 - Under (Injuries continue)
    Max Scherzer May 31 to sign and turn pro? Under (He'll sign)
    Joe Mauer .333 average - Under (.320s)
    Washington Nationals 108 losses - Under (95)

    i dont feel like doing every one....

    best lock- barry bonds over 756 by august 15

    Josh hamilton will be between 20 and 25 hr's for the year because managers are stupid and will somehow find a way to not get him enough playing time. He will hit over .300 with a .550 SLG, which with enough playing time would probably be more than 25 home runs.

    Tim Lincecum will be called up after may 15th, but will have a career similar to sandy koufax in many ways

    Who is Max Scherzer? never heard of him.

    It looks as if the first over/under is about to be determined. According to CBS Sportsline, Phil Hughes is scheduled to make his MLB debut Thursday against Toronto. Such a start would put him more than two months UNDER the established line of July 1.

    Sean... YOU WERE 100% RIGHT ABOUT HUGHES! I don't think it's panic as much as it's neccessity. I persoanlly don't like the move, but I understand it.