Baseball BeatMay 21, 2007
Notes on a Scorecard
By Rich Lederer

Today's column is in honor of the late (and great) Allan Malamud of the now defunct Los Angeles Herald-Examiner who was known for his Notes on a Scorecard during the 1970s and 1980s. However, my notes are from the back of a golf scorecard, developed while watching my nephew Brett Lederer play in the final threesome of the Pasadena City Golf Championship on Sunday.

On a baseball-related note, Brett threw out the first pitch at the UC Riverside-Long Beach State game on Friday night in recognition of the fact that he carded a Big West Golf Championship a few weeks earlier.

I'll start off with a couple of posts on Brett's favorite team, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

  • I went to the Dodgers-Angels game on Saturday night. Dodgers and Angels. Saturday night. Jered Weaver on the mound. It doesn't get much better than that, at least not from my perspective.

    The Halos won the middle game 6-2 on their way to sweeping the weekend series. Weaver made his fourth consecutive "quality start" and evened his record at 3-3 for the season with an ERA of 3.46.

    Although Weaver's K/9 rate has increased from 7.68 in 2006 to 8.31 in 2007, his K/100 pitches has actually slipped a tad to 5.22 (down from 5.43 last season). The reason? Jered is averaging 4.01 P/PA and 17.7 P/INN (vs. 3.94 and 15.7, respectively, in his rookie campaign). [You can check the top five starters in each league in K/100P, as well as the top three hitters in the four Quad categories, near the bottom of the sidebar on the left.]

  • We all know that Shea Hillenbrand can't run, field, or throw. Based on the five tools, that means he better hit for average and power if he wants to play in the big leagues.

     G   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS   AVG   OBP   SLG 
    34  131  10  31   3   0   1   13   2  10   0   2  .237  .252  .282
    

    At the risk of small sample sizes, I don't think Hillenbrand is doing a very good job at hitting for average or power this year. Based on those stats, one would never know that Hillenbrand is a designated hitter. The seven-year veteran has only played two games in the field this season - both at first base. Did I mention that he made an error in one of those contests?

    Oh, and as far as tools go, Hillenbrand has never possessed what should be the sixth: plate discipline. As shown above, he has drawn two walks in 135 plate appearances this season and is averaging 24 free passes per 162 games and 615 AB during his career. Shea's single-season high is 26 even though he has gone to the plate over 600 times in three separate campaigns. Hillenbrand signed a one-year contract for $6 million with the Angels last December. The club can either exercise a $6.5M option for next year or buy him out for $500,000. Hillenbrand's option becomes guaranteed with 600 plate appearances in 2007. The good news (if you're an Angels fan) is that he is on pace for just 486 PA. As such, it appears as if Arte Moreno will not be on the hook for Hillenbrand's inflated salary beyond this season.

    Speaking of players who can't hit, can someone please explain to me the rationale for writing Tony Graffanino's or Craig Counsell's name on the lineup card when Milwaukee has Ryan Braun tearing apart the Pacific Coast League?

                      AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG   
    Graffanino  MLB  101  10  20   2  0  1   8   9  16   0  1 .198 .268 .248 
    Counsell    MLB   85   7  19   5  1  0   7  15  14   3  1 .224 .350 .306
    Braun       AAA  102  24  34  10  0  8  17  12   9   3  3 .333 .405 .667
    

    I realize that Graffanino and Counsell are playing well in the field while giving Braun extra time to work on his defense in the minors. However, Milwaukee's #1 draft pick in 2005 (fifth overall) has made only two errors in 28 games while manning the hot corner for the club's Triple-A affiliate (Nashville Sounds). Braun proved he belongs offensively during the spring when the former University of Miami All-American hit .353/.405/.912 with 5 HR in 34 AB.

    Braun just returned after being sidelined for two weeks with tendinitis in his wrist and may need another week or so to get his batting stroke back. But there's no excuse to keep him down after June rolls around. The fact that the Brewers are in first place as a reason for not rushing matters doesn't wash with me. The big league club has won only three of its last ten and every game Braun misses is a lost opportunity to put even more distance between the Brew Crew and its division rivals.

  • The Brewers also have the luxury of Yovani Gallardo waiting in the wings. Braun's Nashville teammate is leading the minors in strikeouts with 66 and is as major-league ready as he will be.

                      IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB  SO  W-L  ERA   WHIP   K/9
    Gallardo   AAA   48.2  27  13  12   1  16  66  5-1  2.23  0.88  12.21
    

    In contrast to Graffanino and Counsell, Milwaukee's starting rotation is doing well with Dave Bush the only one with an ERA over 4.00. Bush's strong strikeout (6.67 K/9) and walk (1.43 BB/9) rates, coupled with the highest BABIP (.337) on the staff, suggest that it is a matter of time before his ERA begins to more properly reflect his overall pitching.

    Nonetheless, expect to see Gallardo before the All-Star break. He is just too valuable to keep down on the farm for long. It's always nice to have six starters when one of them is Ben Sheets but, like Braun, Gallardo would only make the Brewers that much stronger.

  • Has anyone other than me noticed that B.J. Upton's rate stats have plunged from .371/.425/.660 to .309/.385/.540 since I featured him two weeks ago? My year-end predictions (.280/.340/.500) are looking better by the day.

  • Comments

    Congratulations to your nephew.

    ...so is Weaver pitching worse this year than last?

    Why is Ryan Braun still in the minors? SERVICE CLOCK. I have no idea why people scream for great prospects to come up in May when if they come up later in June, you've got a whole extra YEAR of them at a low price. Look at when Miguel Cabrera came up. It seems like he's been with the Marlins cheaply forever! I think the Giants bungled things with Lincecum because of this too.

    In short, what's smarter? Mortgage off an ENTIRE SEASON of play by bringing up a guy in May, when if you waited one month, you'd have that extra season. If I were in charge nobody good would ever come up in May, ever!

    ...so is Weaver pitching worse this year than last?

    All in all, Weaver's numbers are not quite as good this year as compared to last year. However, his 2007 stats are skewed by one poor outing (vs. DET on 4/23) when he allowed seven hits and seven runs (five earned) in just 1 2/3 innings. Excluding that one start, Weaver's ERA is 2.41 (vs. 2.56 last year and 2.28 without his worst start).

    The biggest difference between 2007 and 2006 has been his BABIP. Last year, batters hit .246 against Weaver when putting balls in play. This year, batters are hitting .333 on BIP. The truth of the matter is that his BABIP was probably a bit low last year and is a tad high this year.

    Aside from the numbers, Weaver's fastball might be down 1-2 MPH from one year to the next (although he is still working in the high-80s and low-90s). His arm strength is improving with every start, his command is almost back to where it was last year, and his changeup is as effective as ever.

    Why is Ryan Braun still in the minors? SERVICE CLOCK.

    Whether the Brewers bring Braun up now or next month potentially affects his "super-two" arbitration status but has no bearing on his free agency.

    All players must have a minimum of six years service time to be eligible for free agency. As a result, Braun won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, irrespective of whether Milwaukee calls him up in May or June.

    I don't think that's right. Miguel Cabrera won't be a free agent until *after* the 2009 season. But he started his career in June 2003. 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009. That's 7 seasons. Look at when he was eligible for arbitration.

    Look at Adrian Beltre. He came up for the Dodgers in June 1998. He did not become a free agent until *after* the 2004 season. 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004. 7 seasons of service.

    Cabrera and Beltre weren't free agents until after their seventh seasons because neither had completed the required six years of service time until then. It had nothing to do with the fact that they were brought up in June rather than, say, May.

    In the case of Braun, he won't become a free agent until after the 2013 season (assuming he is called up sometime this year). 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013. Seven seasons.

    But it doesn't matter if he makes it to the bigs this month or next month, at least as it relates to free agency. As I pointed out above, it may indeed affect his arbitration status. If he qualifies as a "super two," then he would be eligible for arbitration after the 2009 season. If he doesn't qualify, then he wouldn't be eligible for arb until after the 2010 season.

    It had nothing to do with the fact that they were brought up in June rather than, say, May.



    Players' service clocks are frozen in October in determining FA eligibility so the month of the initial callup has to matter. Any player who misses the 6 year cutoff by a few days (Milton Bradley) by definition could have made it if they debuted a week earlier.

    The month of the initial call-up matters only to the extent that a player needs six years of major-league service to be eligible for free agency. In the case of Ryan Braun, he will not be a free agent until after the 2013 season because he will not have put in the required six years until then. He may have to wait even longer if he has not put in six years. But if he is brought up and stays in the big leagues from that point forward, the EARLIEST he could become a free agent is after the 2013 season - and that holds true whether the Brewers call him up now or wait until June or July, for that matter. Period. End of story.

    You still haven't addressed the Cabrera and Beltre cases. Why hadn't they completed their 6 years of service time? Because they were called up in June, that's why. You can't say the month they're called up doesn't matter. If Braun had broken ST with the team, they wouldn't have him for 7 seasons.

    There are many examples. Why isn't Jake Peavy a free agent until after 2008? He started 17 games in 2002. 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Likewise, explain Sabathia's service time.

    If what I am saying is untrue, you have not explained why some guys get 7 years and some get 6. All you've said is, they didn't get 6 years of service time. But why didn't they? Because of a June call-up, that's the only reason.

    If a guy breaks ST with a team his first year, they only have him 6 years. Remember Delmon Young complaining about the team not wanting to start his service clock?

    You still haven't addressed the Cabrera and Beltre cases. Why hadn't they completed their 6 years of service time? Because they were called up in June, that's why. You can't say the month they're called up doesn't matter.

    I truly can't believe how thick some people can be. I have addressed every one of your questions and (wrong) assertions. Here is a direct quote from four comments above: "Cabrera and Beltre weren't free agents until after their seventh seasons because neither had completed the required six years of service time until then. It had nothing to do with the fact that they were brought up in June rather than, say, May."

    In 2008, Cabrera will have completed five seasons plus a partial season. One year of major league service is defined as 172 days of service. In order to be a free agent, a player needs to complete the equivalent of 6 x 172 days (or 1,032 days in total). Cabrera won't complete his six years of service time until the middle of the 2009 season. However, you can't become a free agent until after the season in which you complete your six years of service. Ergo, Cabrera, like so many others, will have played in seven seasons when he becomes a free agent after 2009.

    If Braun had broken ST with the team, they wouldn't have him for 7 seasons.

    Exactly. Because he would be a free agent after his sixth season as a result of playing in six full seasons. I have not wavered from this point. Joining the team in May is not the same as breaking camp with the team in April, at least not for the purposes of free agency.

    There are many examples. Why isn't Jake Peavy a free agent until after 2008? He started 17 games in 2002. 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Likewise, explain Sabathia's service time.

    The same holds true with Peavy. He will be a free agent AFTER he completes six FULL seasons. He will not accomplish that feat until the 2008 season is in the books.

    If what I am saying is untrue, you have not explained why some guys get 7 years and some get 6. All you've said is, they didn't get 6 years of service time. But why didn't they? Because of a June call-up, that's the only reason.

    No, it has NOTHING to do with a June call-up. It has EVERYTHING to do with the timing of completing SIX FULL SEASONS.

    If a guy breaks ST with a team his first year, they only have him 6 years. Remember Delmon Young complaining about the team not wanting to start his service clock?

    See my comment above in response to Ryan Braun. Braun did not break spring training with his team. As such, the Brewers can call him up now and still have him under their control for the rest of this season plus six more.

    I'm going to close the comments section because I have addressed this matter as fully as possible and am confident of my position. If you're not convinced, fine. Go look up the rules or debate them elsewhere.