Change-UpJune 20, 2007
Stocked Sox
By Patrick Sullivan

Before I delve into the Boston Red Sox and the current health of their organization, I should point out some of the great work Rich has done enhancing both the aesthetics and functionality of the site. By far my favorite new sidebar feature is Rich's listing of every club with a Baseball Reference link to their top-to-bottom organizational offensive and pitching statistics. Directly from Baseball Analysts, I was able to view how every hitter and hurler in Boston's organization was faring this year.

Let me tell you, I liked what I saw. As I see it, Boston currently boasts five top-flight prospects - guys one can reasonably expect to continue to progress and one day contribute meaningfully at the Major League level. Over and above these five, the Sox boast organizational pitching depth at AAA, something that ought to come in handy with Curt Schilling about to have an MRI on his shoulder, another 40 year-old in the rotation and Josh Beckett's blisters ready to flare at any moment. David Pauley, Kason Gabbard and Devern Hansack have combined for 205.2 innings and a 3.29 ERA thus far in 2007 with impressive peripherals as well (7.59 K/9, 3.09 K/BB). Jon Lester may well be ready to come back soon as well.

The rest of the piece will look at the aforementioned elite five. They span low-A to AAA, two pitchers and three position players. All entered professional baseball with high hopes and are now rounding into a form that makes it reasonable to portend future Major League Baseball success. My ranking follows:

1) Clay Buchholz, RHP, Portland Sea Dogs - 4-2, 69 IP, 1.96 ERA, 12.3 K/9, 5.53 K/BB, 0.87 WHIP

With Phil Hughes, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo all having graduated to the Bigs, if Buchholz is not the best pitching prospect in the Minors, he is certainly in the discussion. The 22-year old boasts tremendous, low-to-mid 90's fastball command, a snap-hook and a lights out change up. Opponents have posted a mere .512 OPS against him this year. I would say that a Boston call-up for Buchholz is unlikely in 2007 given the pitching depth the team boasts in AAA but I think you can more or less pencil him in the 2008 rotation - if not to start the year, soon thereafter.

2) Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Pawtucket Red Sox - .333/.412/.450, 27 SB / 4 CS (AA/AAA combined)

The former Oregon State Beaver has slowed down a bit since being called up to Pawtucket in the middle of May or so but you can't ignore his .452/.578/.644 start for the Portland Sea Dogs. He already plays gold glove caliber defense in center field and swipes bases with regularity and efficiency. Although his batting average and slugging have taken a hit since bumping up to the International League, he is still getting on base (.365). Given his defense and speed, there is no need to punish him for an otherwise underwhelming month in AAA.

3) Lars Anderson, 1B, Greenville Drive - .320/.407/.500

Anderson may turn some heads by ranking so high on this list but he is a 6'4", 215 pound left-handed hitting first baseman who is tearing up the South Atlantic League with no discernible holes in his swing (he hits LHP's and RHP's more or less the same). The Sox selected the California native in the 18th round of the 2006 Amateur draft thanks to their deep pockets. He had only slipped that far because he figured to have high bonus demands. At this point, it looks like the Sox may have a real gem on their hands.

4) Michael Bowden, RHP, Portland Sea Dogs - 5-2, 75.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 8.62 K/9, 3.27 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP (A/AA)

At just 20 years old and pitching solidly in AA ball, Bowden has done little to dampen hopes after a ridiculous start to his season for the Lancaster JetHawks of the California League. Lancaster's notoriously friendly hitting confines make his start to the season even more ridiculous than it was on its face (he posted a 1.37 ERA in 8 starts for the JetHawks). While he has not been as lights out in the Northeast as he was in the Southwest, his peripherals still look solid enough (nearly a K per inning) and I expect that he will improve as he continues to adjust.

5) Brandon Moss, OF, Pawtucket Red Sox - .304/.402/.548

After consecutive disappointing, sub-.800 OPS seasons in 2005 and 2006 with Portland of the Eastern League, the bloom looked like it may be coming off of Moss's rose. Now at 23 and playing in Pawtucket, he is coming into his own. He plays plus defense and affords the Sox a number of options at the Big League level should he continue his quality play. The Sox can feel comfortable flipping Wily Mo Pena for a reliever without compromising outfield depth. The sting of losing Manny Ramirez in the near future could be eased by Moss's emergence. Merely a nice piece of organizational depth coming into 2007, Moss now figures prominently in any Big League plans the Sox might have.

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With baseball's best record, ready pitching help at AAA and stars throughout the system, things haven't looked this good for the Boston Red Sox in quite some time. Of course, as any good Yankee fan would remind the overzealous Boston fan, prospects are just prospects and it is only June. Just like their promising Minor Leaguers, the Boston Red Sox have a long way to go.

Comments

Of course, as any good Yankee fan would remind the overzealous Boston fan, prospects are just prospects and it is only June.


"Any good Yankee fan would just reflect on the NY minor league system and realize just how weak this list is comparatively."

The Yankees minor league strength is pitching and they boast not one but two prospects who could be in the same discussion as Buchholtz is in.

Phillip Hughes(ML)

Joba Chamberlain(AA)

In fact Hughes would lead that discussion and Chamberlain may top it by the end of the season.

If not for Chamberlain missing two months he would be in AAA and probably be tearing that up too. His career pro K/BB is 114/17 and he has allowed only one run in AA this year.

Hughes is a known quality and was pitching a no-hitter in his second ML start.

A rung beneath these two are Tyler Clippard(ML) and Ian Kennedy(AA) both of whom are at least equal too Michael Bowden, with Kennedy (throwing in the 92's again) having the potential to be much better.

All four of these pitchers should be ML ready in 2008.

Left out of this list are 3 other prospects who are near Bowden's level.

Alan Horne(AA)

Dellin Betances(A-)

George Kontos(A+)

Horne should really be in AAA and is positioning himself as one of the games top SP prospects, check out this quote from BP

Alan Horne, RHP, Yankees: 2.50 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 (Double-A): Horne isn't well known, but he should be. His selection from Florida in the 11th round of the 2005 draft was a hidden gem delivered by the Yankees' scouting department. Horne is over the injury problems that plagued his college career, and he is suddenly somewhere in the mix for the organization's best pitching prospect behind Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. While Hughes rehabs and Joba prepares further for The Show, I believe it's Horne rather than Tyler Clippard who would be better suited to pitch every fifth day for the Yanks.

Betances is a untested SP with basically no ceiling who throws 97 at age 18.

Kontos was a 5th round sleeper pick in the 06 draft and has dominated since switching to wood bats. If not for a shoulder injury Kontos would be in AA already. As it is he is dominating A+ and waiting for the call to join Chamberlain and Kennedy in Trenton.

Another strong area for the Yankees is relief pitching.

JB Cox should be the set up man in 08

Humberto Sanchez profiles as a Zumaya type reliever.

Mark Melancon has the potential to be a dominant closer in the K Rod mold.

As far as hitting, the talent is further down buth there nonetheless.

Brett Gardner(AA) could develop into a solid offensive CF and his D is ML ready.

Jose Tabata(A+) has been compared to Manny and is said to be a good bet to develop into Bobby Abreu #2.

Fransisco Cervelli(A+) Has burst onto the scene( Pecota strikes again) in A+ and shows advanced plate discipline.

Jesus Montero is a untested but monumentally talented C ou of the DR at 17.

The list goes in but as far as systems go the Yankees can just point to theirs with pride.

***no discernible holes in his swing (he hits LHP's and RHP's more or less the same)***

flawless logic...

b/c - Hughes has graduated and is obviously excellent (as I noted in the piece).

Go ahead and throw up the Yanks best five prospects, their ages, levels of MiLB ball and numbers thus far in 2007. We'll see how they stack up.

Chamberlain looks awesome...let's see the rest in the format I posted and we will compare.

***no discernible holes in his swing (he hits LHP's and RHP's more or less the same)***...flawless logic...

Bah - it's one data point. This trait has been pointed out to me by a couple of people that have seen him play enough times to credibly make such a claim.

Feel free to point out any flaws in Anderson's approach, however.

Ask and thee shall receive...

1. Jose Tabata, RF .300-.367-.365 in A+
18 yr old kid playing a pitcher friendly park in a pitcher friendly league. The power's not there, but everything else is.

2. Joba, RHP 5-0, 51 IP, 1.76 ERA, 12.18 Kper9, 4.86 K/BB, .88 WHIP in A+/AA
Numbers are every bit as good as Buchholz's, and he's a year younger at the same level.

3. Ian Patrick Kennedy, RHP 9-1, 79 IP, 1.71 ERA, 10.82 Kper9, 3.65 K/BB, .99 WHIP in A+/AA
2 yrs older than Bowden, but the numbers completely smoke'em.

4. Dellin Betances, RHP
19 yr old man-child makes his first start tonight for the SI Yanks. 6'9" with 98 mph heat, knee-buckling yakker, and good change for a kid his age.

5. Alan Horne, RHP 6-3, 75.2 IP, 2.50 ERA, 10.47 Kper9, 4.19 K/BB, 1.24 WHIP in AA
Went with Horne over Clippard, who's the king of gaudy minor league stats.

Performance isn't everything with prospects, numbers are very nice to look at it, but it's about process. I'd don't refute the point that the Sox have some very good prospects, but as we saw with Clippard, minor league numbers mean absolutely nothing in the bigs. Some guys just get called up and freak out when the see that 3rd deck at the stadium.

Good stuff, Mike A. And my list was by no means meant to be an indictment on the Yanks' prospects. Both organizations are pretty healthy.

There is no way Coco Crisp 2.0 should be higher than Michael Bowden. That .700 OPS in Triple A isn't impressing anyone. This stuff Red Sox fans have been spouting off about him being MLB ready is a joke. Don't believe the hype.

Good list although I have a real hard time seeing Moss as much more then a fourth outfielder. His numbers are fairly nice until you look closer. He has a 74-39 K/BB ratio in 68 games.

His BABIP right now is at .387 which is very high even for a minor leaguer. His LD% is only 15.4% so you would expect a BABIP of around .270 if I remember the formula right. His HR/FB is also at 19.7% which is a little high. If you adjust his BABIP down to a more normal level for his LD% you end up with a batting average around .250, if I did my calculations right.

Moss's year is a lot of luck, he is a guy who has hit a lot of flyballs this year and had an abnormal amount of them fall in for singles and doubles.

Other then Moss though I agree, the Sox have some real promising young'uns.

Both the Yankees and Red Sox have excellent farm systems right now. If both organizations continue to use their finances to stockpile talent, the rest of the league is going to be in trouble.

Of course, the Devil Rays youth is probably tops in the game, so we will just have to see.

Wow, did someone just call Ellsbury "Coco Crisp 2.0"? That's about as bad a comparison as calling Dustin Pedroia "David Eckstein 2.0". Ellsbury has shown quite the discerning eye throughout his career, and looks to hit and draw walks far more like a Johnny Damon than a Coco Crisp (who has never been much of a walker). As noted above, Ellsbury is also both a decently prolific and efficient basestealer; Crisp, while fairly efficient, has never been one to attempt many steals.

"3. Ian Patrick Kennedy, RHP 9-1, 79 IP, 1.71 ERA, 10.82 Kper9, 3.65 K/BB, .99 WHIP in A+/AA
2 yrs older than Bowden, but the numbers completely smoke'em. "

This is really funny. Kennedy has pitched all of 16 innings in AA. Here are his stats (his abov3e, Bowden's below):

16.0 13 6 6 1 4 23 3.38
29.2 30 15 15 1 14 26 4.55

Here are the A+ stats, same order:

63.0 39 9 9 2 22 72 1.29
46.0 35 10 7 1 8 46 1.37

What is so amusing about this comparison is that Mike A. downplays the humongous difference in age while also failing to grasp the vast difference in park effects between Tampa and Lancaster. lnacaster might be the toughest pitching environment in all of parofessional baseball. Certainly, the California league is.

Here is the difference in team ERA between the two:

Tampa: 3.16
Lancaster: 5.67

I think when Mika A. said "smoke'em", he was referring to the doobies he inhaled prior to his "analysis".

Wow, did someone just call Ellsbury "Coco Crisp 2.0"? That's about as bad a comparison as calling Dustin Pedroia "David Eckstein 2.0". Ellsbury has shown quite the discerning eye throughout his career, and looks to hit and draw walks far more like a Johnny Damon than a Coco Crisp

Comparing Ellsbury to Damon is almost as egregious as comparing Pedroia to Eckstein, but for the opposite reason. Johnny Damon was in AA at the age of 21 prior to making the Royals roster. Ellsbury was in SS.

"Ellsbury was in SS."

Of course he was. He went to college and that's where the Red Sox started him. That he was there had nothing to do with being slow through the system.

Yeah, and he didn't come close to putting up the numbers that Damon did in AA. My point was not whether he was slow or fast through the system. The point is that Johnny Damon showed that he was a much better player at the same age.

I realize Yankee fans really zealous. This is for Redsox prospects. But there are a lot of talks that say highly of Yankee prospects and say bad of Redsox prospects. Just ridiculous.

"Yeah, and he didn't come close to putting up the numbers that Damon did in AA. My point was not whether he was slow or fast through the system. The point is that Johnny Damon showed that he was a much better player at the same age."

Johnny Damon, AA, age 21: .343 .434 .534 968
Jacoby Ellsbury, Oregon State, age 21: 0.406 0.495 0.582 1.077
Jacoby Ellsbury, AA, age 22: .308 .387 .434 0.821
Jacoby Ellsbury, AA, age 23: .452 .518 .644 1.162

Obviously he still has a lot to prove, but the comparison to Damon isn't at all ridiculous.