The Baseball Analysts: Bounty Hunter

Bounty Hunter

By The Baseball Analysts Staff

Torii Hunter has been a pretty good player over the course of his nine-year career. A lifetime .271/.324/.470 hitter who has played a solid centerfield, Hunter has been a key component of some of the better Twins teams in the franchise's history. That this great Twins run has coincided with Hunter's tenure seems to have enhanced his standing, both in his own and the public's eyes.

See this story in the Minneapolis Star Tribune entitled, Suzuki's deal sets a higher bar for Hunter. Let's compare Suzuki and Hunter on a per 162 game average over the course of their respective MLB careers:

              AVG    OBP    SLG   OPS+   SB   CS   GIDP
Ichiro       .333   .379   .439   120    40    9     5
Hunter       .271   .324   .470   104    17    8    17

In Hunter's defense, Ichiro will be 34 to start next season while Hunter will be 32. But if he thinks Ichiro serves as any sort of proxy for the money coming his way, he has no argument at all. Ichiro is worth boatloads of money in off-the-field revenue and is a far better player than Hunter to boot. I don't doubt that some GM will grossly overpay for Hunter, but when jockeying for negotiating leverage, Hunter should shoot a good bit lower than the great Ichiro.

- Sully, 7/14/07, 1:21 PM EDT

Staying on topic, Andruw Jones will also be a free agent at the end of the season. Jones and Hunter head a strong class of center fielders that includes Mike Cameron and Aaron Rowand, as well as Milton Bradley, Eric Byrnes, and Corey Patterson.

If Ichiro Suzuki is an $18 million per year player, what are Jones and Hunter worth? How about Cameron and Rowand? As Sully pointed out, Ichiro is a special situation because of his off-the-field endorsement value. I would also argue that he is the most apt to put fans in the seats. As such, we can't compare Suzuki to the others without accounting for these non-statistical factors. In any event, which teams do you see stepping up?

Here is how the large-market clubs stand now:

NYY   Damon      4 years/$52M (2006-09)
NYM   Beltran    7 years/$119M (2005-11)
BOS   Crisp      3 years/$15.5M (2007-09)*
CHC   Pie        1 year/ (2007)
CWS   Erstad     1 year/$1M (2007)**
LAD   Pierre     5 years/$44M (2007-11)
LAA   Matthews   5 years/$50M (2007-11)

*  $8M club option in 2010 ($0.5M buyout)
** $3.5M club option in 2008 ($0.25M buyout)

The Yankees, of course, could move Damon to left field. In theory, the Dodgers could do the same with Pierre. The Mets and Angels are committed to Carlos Beltran and Gary Matthews, respectively. Coco Crisp could become a fourth outfielder, if need be. When it comes to Boston, the question isn't really about Crisp as much as it is Jacoby Ellsbury. Will the Red Sox let Crisp and Ellsbury battle it out next spring or will they look outside the organization for their next CF, even if means blocking Ellsbury's path to the bigs? The Chicago Cubs will face the same thought process as it relates to Felix Pie.

The White Sox are the most likely team to be in the market for one of these free agent CF. To the extent that these free agents go elsewhere, the Braves, Twins, Padres, and Phillies will need to find suitable replacements. The latter could turn to Michael Bourn, a 24-year-old speedster who can run 'em down but is unlikely to be much of a threat at the plate.

Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Toronto won't be in the market for a center fielder during the off-season. In theory, there are a number of potential suitors but, realistically speaking, there are only a handful of teams likely to dole out the big bucks for a Jones or Hunter type.

As for me, I see the Yankees stepping up and making a run at Jones or Hunter, especially if Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. Put me down for Jones signing with the NYY and Hunter going to the CWS. I can see Cameron returning to the Padres and Byrnes to the Diamondbacks (although as a LF). I don't have a particularly good feel for Rowand but will take a wild guess and say that Oakland or San Francisco ends up with him. Neither Bradley or Patterson will draw much interest and will wind up signing shorter-term deals in the hopes of testing the market once again.

- Rich Lederer, 7/14/07, 11:30 PM PST

Comments

They've been roughly equal in OPS+ over the past 3-4 year, though, so I think that there is a reason that Ichiro's contract puts pressure to pay Hunter more.

Posted by: TwentySeven at July 14, 2007 3:33 PM

As a Twin fan my first inclination was to agree with your assessment. But then I got to thinking it's not exactly fair to compare career numbers between the two when Ichiro didn't play in the majors until he was 27. Hunter turned 27 mid-season in '02 so I compared Hunter's numbers from '02 to present and then since it's really about what have you done for me lately I did the same comparisons from '05 to present. Here's what I came up with.

Hunter '02 to present Avg./OBP/Slg./OPS
275/331/486/817
The two are obviously very different players but.817 just happens to be Ichiro's career OPS.

Here's the comparison from '05 to present;
Hunter 282/338/496/834
Ichiro 321/369/431/800

Then I got to think that in reality, Ichiro's job is to get on base and score runs and Hunter's job is to drive in runs (not an easy task when you're batting behind the league MVP). Ichiro driving in runs is icing on the cake and likewise for Hunter scoring runs. So how does this comparison work out?

RBI/Runs since '02

Hunter 502/456 = 958
Ichiro 329/605 = 934

RBI/Runs since '05

Hunter 225/205 = 430
Ichiro 156/282 = 438

Consider this, Hunter only played in 98 games in '05 when he broke his ankle in Boston. In fact Ichiro has played in 114 more games than Hunter since '02 and 77 more games since '05.

Runs + RBI per game
since '02
Hunter 1.24 Ichiro 1.05
since '05
Hunter 1.29 Ichiro 1.07

Both players have 6 consecutive gold glove awards so I'm calling their defense a tie. However based on this comparison, while both players play a different role offensively, I's have to rate Hunter as the better player, a view I only determined after reading your assessment.

Posted by: sawdustking at July 14, 2007 5:35 PM

The fact that you're using RBI and runs to compare player skills totally removes whatever other value your post might have.

Posted by: NBarnes at July 14, 2007 8:13 PM

The fact that you're using RBI and runs to compare player skills totally removes whatever other value your post might have.

No it doesn't. No statistic measures "player skills", they all measure results. And since scoring runs is the central purpose of offense looking at how well players drive them in and score them is perfectly valid.

Posted by: Ross Williams at July 14, 2007 8:42 PM

....

Sure, whatever.

Posted by: NBarnes at July 14, 2007 9:56 PM

Yo, NBarnes, you ignored the fact that he started his comparison with OPS. Is that comparison not valid?

Posted by: t ball at July 14, 2007 10:05 PM

I really think Cashman is turning over a new leaf as GM. The days of big spending are over. Brett Gardner is going to get a shot in NY Center Field next year.

Posted by: Jon at July 15, 2007 8:26 AM

RBI might not be a valid statistic according to your baseball dogma, but you don't think that RBI results in big fat contracts?

All other stats are only a measure of HOW a job gets done. Ultimately only runs and wins are valid measures of whether or not the job was even accomplished.

Posted by: sawdustking at July 15, 2007 8:27 AM

Ichiro does two things much, much better than Hunter and I think it has to do mostly with his speed. He hits singles and steals a lot of bases (w/o many CS's).

The two have similar walk rates, and Hunter definitely hits for more pop than Ichiro, but Ichiro has averaged 186 singles per 162 games while Hunter has averaged just 98.

Advanced defensive metrics suggest Ichiro is the better fielder too, for whatever that is worth.

Posted by: Sully at July 15, 2007 9:19 AM

Redsox doesn't want Hunter at all. I bet. Most likely Ellsbury will be everyday CF next year. Theo likes farm based players and doesn't afraid to give a shot to rookie. It will be supported from Youk and Pedroia's success.

Posted by: Coby at July 16, 2007 9:34 AM

Quote: I really think Cashman is turning over a new leaf as GM. The days of big spending are over. Brett Gardner is going to get a shot in NY Center Field next year.

As a sox fan, I really hope so. The yankees would have zero power in that lineup outside of a quickly aging/breaking down Giambi and A-Rod, that is if they re-sign him. If the Yanks dont go after Jones (or to a lesser point, Hunter) then that offense is going to continue to be good but not great and that OF defense is going to be a massive liability.

Posted by: John S. at July 16, 2007 11:31 AM

I highly doubt Hunter would cross over the Sox.
If he does, that would be insane.
Kenny is more likely to go the cheaper route with the player he knows- Rowand.

As a Sox fan I'd love to see Hunter, but I dunno man. The Twins would most likely step in and match any Whitesox offer.

Posted by: domchota at July 16, 2007 9:22 PM

For what it's worth, Torii Hunter has a limited no trade clause which lists the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Devil Rays, and the Toronto Blue Jays as the teams he cannot be traded to. After breaking his ankle in Boston in '05 I don't think he's real enthused about playing CF there. Of course, throw a few extra million dollars his way and he might forget all about that.

Posted by: sawdustking at July 17, 2007 5:20 PM