Baseball Beat/Change-UpDecember 06, 2007
Winter Meetings Roundup
By Rich Lederer and Patrick Sullivan

Let us love winter, for it is the spring of genius. - Pietro Aretino

Although the Winter Meetings didn't produce as much action as anticipated, there were a few notable trades and signings. Rather than sharing all the rumors and whisper stories the past few days, we decided to sit this one out until there was news to report.

News: The Detroit Tigers and Florida Marlins agreed to a blockbuster trade involving Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, a backup catcher, and three minor league pitchers.

Comments: This is one of those deals that could work out well for both clubs. The Tigers acquired one of the best hitters in the game and a starting pitcher to round out its rotation, while the Marlins gained two of the most coveted prospects (both of whom were top 10 selections in the amateur draft), a relief pitcher (Eulogio De La Cruz) who has touched 100-mph, and a groundball specialist (Dallas Trahern) who could figure into its rotation in the second half of 2008 and beyond. As the saying goes, you gotta be willing to give up something to get something.

The Tigers will obviously be the biggest beneficiaries of this deal in the short run. Motown will now produce mo runs than ever. Check out the following lineup:

Granderson, CF
Polanco, 2B
Cabrera, 3B
Ordonez, RF
Sheffield, DH
Guillen, 1B
Renteria, SS
Rodriguez, C

Add a LF to that lineup (which should be pretty easy to do via trade or free agency) and we're looking at the best lineup in baseball. If Cabrera doesn't work out at third base, manager Jim Leyland could slide him across the diamond and put Carlos Guillen at the hot corner. Either way, that is a potent offense. Placido Polanco (.341) and Edgar Renteria (.332) are unlikely to match last year's batting averages, but there is no reason why this keystone combo can't hit .300/.350/.425 next season. Gary Sheffield's health and Magglio Ordonez holding up his end of the bargain will be the determining factors as to just how scary Detroit's offense will be in 2008.

What a turnaround for the Tigers in just a few years, huh? Under the ownership of Mike Ilitch and President/CEO/GM Dave Dombrowski, they've gone from the basement in 2003 when they lost 119 games (one fewer than the all-time record) to the penthouse in 2006 when they won the American League pennant. Detroit is clearly one of the best five teams in the AL (along with the Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels) – and, for that matter, in the major leagues – and just may be the favorite to win it all in 2008.

Of the five powerhouses, the Angels have the easiest path to the postseason. As outstanding as the other four clubs are, at least one of them will be on the outside looking in when October rolls around. It's too early to pick which one that might be, but the ante has just been raised once again.

In the meantime, Florida may have only one player on its roster next year (catcher Miguel Olivo) with a salary in excess of a million dollars. As things stand now, the entire payroll could be under $10 million. The Marlins may not win a lot of games, but they sure will be profitable (even if fans stay home).

- Rich Lederer

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News: Outfielder Jose Guillen and the Kansas City Royals reached an agreement on a three-year, $36 million deal.

Comments: Let's see if I've got this one straight. The Seattle Mariners declined a $9M option on Guillen for 2008 and the Royals stepped up and gave him $3M more per annum for each of the next three years?

Either Bill Bavasi misjudged the interest in Guillen or Dayton Moore overpaid for him. I mean, even if the Mariners had no use for Jose, they could have exercised their option and traded him to a team like the Royals. One way or the other, Seattle left talent and/or money on the table.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is now on the hook for $12M in 2008, 2009, and 2010 for an enigmatic outfielder who will turn 32 in May and has already played for eight teams in his first 11 seasons in the majors. Guillen was suspended by the Angels near the end of the 2004 campaign and recently questioned by the commissioner's office regarding the purchase of HGH and steroids from May 2002-June 2005. He may serve a 10-15 day suspension next season.

In the department of risk and reward, maybe Guillen (who has put up an OPS+ of 116 or better in four of the last five seasons, including a 142 in his career year in 2003) fits the bill as a potentially high reward for a club that has been unable – or unwilling – to attract tier-one talent in the free agent market. Maybe. But there's no getting around the fact that he is a high risk.

Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski, two of my favorite baseball writers, seem to agree with me on this one – and both are longtime followers of the Royals.

- Rich Lederer

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News: The Los Angeles Dodgers reached an agreement late Wednesday night with free-agent center fielder Andruw Jones on a two-year, $36 million contract. Jones will receive a $12 million signing bonus and earn $9 million in 2008 and $15 million in 2009.

Comments: This is a typical move on the part of Ned Colletti, who has signed a number of free agents to shorter-term contracts in his two years as general manager. Too bad one of them wasn't Juan Pierre, who Colletti inked to a FIVE-year deal last winter.

To make room for Jones in center, Pierre will now switch to left field. At best, he can become Lou Brock light. The operative words here are: "at best" and "light." In other words, Pierre will not duplicate what Brock did for the Cardinals during the 1960s and 1970s. Instead, he can only hope to hit for a similar average and steal a like number of bases. Brock had an OPS+ of 107-126 every year from 1964-1976. Pierre's single-season best OPS+ is 107 with a career mark of 84. No matter how you slice this one, the Dodgers will have a gaping hole offensively in left field next year – and perhaps through 2011 unless management swallows its pride and owns up to the mistake of signing Pierre to that ridiculous contract a year ago.

By the way, are the Dodgers and Angels collecting center fielders or what? The Jones signing marks the fourth (yes, FOURTH!) free-agent CF in the past year that will call the greater Los Angeles area his home.

Jon Weisman hopes the Dodgers will see fit to trade (or sit) Pierre rather than Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp and longs for an outfield consisting of Ethier-Jones-Kemp rather than Pierre-Jones-Ethier.

- Rich Lederer

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Presented without commentary (There are no words.):

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus at 2:45 on 12/4: "The blockbuster that might have been between the Tigers and Marlins ... won't be."

Carroll at 5:15 on 12/4: "Johan Santana to the Red Sox is all but done. Jon Lester, a center fielder, Justin Masterson and Ryan Kalish are the package. More details now."

Carroll on Bill James during his chat yesterday: "The guy bores me, frankly."

- Patrick Sullivan

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There is something cruel about reading this excerpt from an ESPN story posted last night about the Mets being in play for the services of Johan Santana. On the Mets ability to get a deal done...

"We have some pretty good prospects," general manager Omar Minaya said. "We have the players."

No, you don't, Omar. And the saddest part of it all is that if you did, it would have had to have included Lastings Milledge, whom you traded to the Washington Nationals for a 29 year-old outfielder who has appeared in all of 347 games and a 31 year-old catcher who has hit .246/.323/.333 over the last two seasons.

If David Wright and Jose Reyes are, in fact, untouchable as has been reported, there is no combination that the Mets could put together that would best even the least inspiring combo that has been put out there by the Yanks or Red Sox.

- Patrick Sullivan

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I usually don't get too worked up over the Veterans Committee's Hall of Fame selections (or lack thereof), but I was left scratching my head when I read that former commissioner Bowie Kuhn was elected and Marvin Miller wasn't in the balloting for managers, umpires, executives and pioneers.

Kuhn was joined by managers Billy Southworth and Dick Williams plus executives Barney Dreyfuss and Walter O'Malley. Other than William Eckert, I realize that all of the commissioners before Kuhn have been enshrined in Cooperstown. But being commissioner in and of itself should not be a reason for induction. If anything, we have had our fill of commissioners over the years. What's ironic to me is that Kuhn's tenure was parallel with Miller's, and it's the latter who schooled the former in the area of labor relations.

Miller is one of the most influential figures in the history of baseball. He belongs in the Hall of Fame. It's a real disservice that he has been overlooked this long. I hope voters will see fit to honor him before he passes away. Miller turns 91 next April and the committee will not vote again for two years.

I'm happy for the Kuhn family but feel sad for the Millers. Mr. Miller deserves (much) better.

- Rich Lederer

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Here's a comprehensive recap of today's Rule 5 Draft.

Former Indians outfielder Brian Barton, whom Marc Hulet mentioned in his excellent preview on Monday, was selected 10th by the Cardinals.

- Patrick Sullivan

Comments

Tigers have the best lineup in baseball? I would still compare the Yankees' lineup to theirs.

Granderson >> Cabrera
Polanco < Cano
Cabrera < ARod
Ordonez > Abreu
Sheffield ~=< Matsui/Giambi
Guillen > Duncan/Giambi/Betemit
Renteria < Jeter
Rodriguez << Posada
LF ? Damon/Matsui

It's pretty close.

How do you give a 3 year commitment to a guy who's never lasted more than 2 with any of the 8 teams he's played for over the last 9 years? Throw in his near-certain steroid related supspension, and it smells like a pretty desperate move for the Royals.
I was a huge Guillen fan ... I used to marvel at his ability to rebound quickly from injury (duh!) ...thought he added some much needed toughness to the Angels... until I watched him slam his helmet on that fateful day in '04 and subesquently sabotage the Angels post-season chances. He's a punk, and by most accounts, a terrible teammate. I don't think many free-agents will be clamoring to sign with the Royals to play with Jose Guillen.

Guillen is the bad-boy boyfriend that girls think they can reform. Good luck, Royals.

Detroit did acquire a LFer and #9-hole hitter early this offseason: Jacques Jones

Yes, the Tigers acquired Jones from the Cubs last month for Omar Infante. Although I don't particularly care for Jones, I believe this trade made sense for Detroit, especially if he ends up as the team's fourth outfielder rather than its starting left fielder. He can play all three outfield positions and will only cost the Tigers $3M for one season as the Cubs agreed to pick up $2 million of his $5M salary as part of the trade.


The best part about all of the CF signings in LA is that last year, nearly everyone said that both GMJ and Pierre were horrible deals and suggested that the two clubs should have waited until this off-season when there would be plenty of CF options hitting the market.

Little did anyone expect that both teams would simply sign one player in 2006 and then add another in 2007!

Wrong on the Mets prospects ... this is a case of bad timing ... given another half year of development I think these guys will become major league contributors. Pelfrey turned a corner in Sept. of last year and began to show a real ability to use that heavy sinker effectively against ML hitters ... Gomez? I'd take him over Elsbury in a heartbeat ... Gomez is going to be a star big TIME -- a Reyes for the outfield only with more power and a HOWITZER of an arm.

Lastings got the boot because nobody liked him in the clubhouse ... kind of an arrogant little jerk who couldn't lose the "tude".

Humber has one of the best curveballs I've ever seen ... up there with Bucholtz and Homer Bailey (who I think has the best by far of any young pitcher).

As a Met fan I am glad we didn't let these guys go ... esp. Gomez.

I agree about the Mets' prospects. The Mets draft poorly and emphasize the wrong skills, seemingly. It's a joke that the Mets traded Milledge for Church/Schneider, and the way the team is being run right now is painful.

Re: Jose Guillen, not only did the idiotic Mariners decline his option, but they also failed to offer him arbitration, missing out on a free draft pick on the slighest chance that Guillen would accept.

If the Mets are in such bad shape how were they one strike from the WS in 06 and one win from making the playoffs this past year?

Stupendous collapse notwithstanding, this is not a bad team.

Reyes, Wright, Heilman, all home grown no?

Pelfrey was a #2 overall, Humber was taken #3 right after Verlander. How is that drafting poorly? Milledge is the one guy who you could argue had "make-up" issues from the git go but he is/was overrated IMO (NOT very good in the OF prob a .260's hitter with minimal power with the bat) while Gomez looks like Alex Rios only WAY faster and has hardly gotten any print. I have watched this kid Gomez play every chance ... this kid is fun to watch ... he can play any OF spot (is said to be the Mets best outfielder -- yes this is on a roster with Beltran and Endy Chavez). He tracks down fly balls like nothing I've ever seen ... he is (gulp) supposedly faster than Reyes. Its like if a ball isn't hit on a line & in a gap Gomez will get to it. His is a big kid (6 ft 4) who is as "sure thing" as they come if only because his defense ALONE should get him a ML job.

Untouchables:
And what about Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra? Martinez is 19 and Guerra is (I think) 18 ... Martinez is being compared (at his age) to people like Willie Mays ... while looking overmatched at high-A for the early part of last year he'd clearly figured things out down the stretch. This kid can hit.

If the Mets are in such bad shape how were they one strike from the WS in 06 and one win from making the playoffs this past year?

Stupendous collapse notwithstanding, this is not a bad team.

Reyes, Wright, Heilman, all home grown no?

Pelfrey was a #2 overall, Humber was taken #3 right after Verlander. How is that drafting poorly? Milledge is the one guy who you could argue had "make-up" issues from the git go but he is/was overrated IMO (NOT very good in the OF prob a .260's hitter with minimal power with the bat) while Gomez looks like Alex Rios only WAY faster and has hardly gotten any print. I have watched this kid Gomez play every chance ... this kid is fun to watch ... he can play any OF spot (is said to be the Mets best outfielder -- yes this is on a roster with Beltran and Endy Chavez). He tracks down fly balls like nothing I've ever seen ... he is (gulp) supposedly faster than Reyes. Its like if a ball isn't hit on a line & in a gap Gomez will get to it. His is a big kid (6 ft 4) who is as "sure thing" as they come if only because his defense ALONE should get him a ML job.

Untouchables:
And what about Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra? Martinez is 19 and Guerra is (I think) 18 ... Martinez is being compared (at his age) to people like Willie Mays ... while looking overmatched at high-A for the early part of last year he'd clearly figured things out down the stretch. This kid can hit.

Guerra isn't going anywhere & Martinez and Gomez aren't going anywhere together from what I understand. Personally I think the guy with the best shot at stardom is Gomez. If other teams scouts don't see it this way, far as I'm concerned that's good for us (Met fans) because we get to see them stay in Queens.

Incidentally, it is appearing that all the other teams' packages (Red Sox, Yankees, Angels) weren't good enough either. These GM on the Twins/A's/Orioles are demanding a king's ransom because they don't really HAVE to trade these aces ... I think they're just baiting the league to see if there's any team out there stupid enough to give them what they want ... so far the answer is no.

Rich, I agree with you about Kuhn but I have to offer this comparison that was suggested during Rob Neyer's ESPN chat this week. Aren't the arguments being used to advocate Marvin Miller's induction the same arguments that could place Scott Boras in the Hall of Fame one day? While I see a small difference in that Miller changed the nature of owner/player relations, Boras in many ways has changed the game of agent/owner relations. Boras is clearly the best at his job in baseball, and while I can think of no agent currently in the HOF, I would think he would have to be the first to go.

If agents ever are eligible for induction then Boras should get in. But there is no comparison as to their effect on the game.

Miller was a liberator in the same way as Branch Rickey is reputed to have been if not in a realm that elicits the same sympathy. And the remarkable profitability of baseball these days is at least partially a result of the changes he wrought. He was a visionary union leader. Any short list of important non-players in the game's history starts with Alexander Cartwright and then there is a tossup for the #2 spot between Rickey, Miller and Henry Chadwick. I suppose you could include Landis in that debate although I think his positive influence is somewhat neutralized by his adamant opposition to integration and his benighted stance on other issues.

As Mike Francessa stated on the radio yesterday, look at who the voters were for this Hall Of Fame election-- many were either former team executives or owners. Would anybody of that type want to elect Marvin Miller to the Hall Of Fame?

Re Evan's comment above, I have to agree with Bob R. on this one. As I mentioned in my post, "Miller is one of the most influential figures in the history of baseball" and undoubtedly had more impact on the fabric of the sport than anybody else during the past 40 years.

Whereas Scott Boras has made a few dozen players very wealthy, Miller is the one who gave them all a chance to become rich in the first place. Miller was responsible for creating the union, as well as "the legal and financial structure of the sport, including free agency, arbitration and the enormous pension and benefit programs for the players" (as summarized so aptly by Fay Vincent in an op-ed piece in the New York Times on Saturday).

One might even say that Boras owes his livelihood, fame, and wealth to Miller.