The Baseball Analysts: Open Chat: And Down the Stretch They Come!

Open Chat: And Down the Stretch They Come!

By Rich Lederer

On the heels of Labor Day, here is a snapshot of the standings.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Rays         84   51  .622  -
Red Sox      80   57  .584   5
Yankees      73   64  .533  12
Blue Jays    70   66  .515  14.5
Orioles      63   74  .460  22

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
White Sox    77   60  .562  -
Twins        77   60  .562  -
Indians      66   70  .485  10.5
Tigers       66   71  .482  11
Royals       57   79  .419  19.5

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Angels       83   53  .610  -
Rangers      67   72  .482  17.5
A's          63   74  .460  20.5
e-Mariners   54   83  .394  29.5

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Mets         77   61  .558  -
Phillies     75   63  .543   2
Marlins      70   68  .507   7
Braves       59   79  .428  18
e-Nationals  53   85  .384  24

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Cubs         85   53  .616  -
Brewers      80   57  .584   4.5
Cardinals    74   64  .536  11
Astros       72   66  .522  13
Reds         61   76  .445  23.5
e-Pirates    57   79  .419  27

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB
Diamondbacks 70   67  .511  -
Dodgers      68   70  .493   2.5
Rockies      65   74  .468   6
Giants       59   78  .431  11
Padres       53   84  .387  17

e - mathematically eliminated from the postseason

Which team is best positioned to win the World Series? Tradesports.com, the world's leading sports trading exchange, offers the following odds (expressed in terms of percent):

Symbol          Bid     Ask     Last 
ANGELS          16.5    17.5    18.2
CUBS            15.1    18.1    18.5
REDSOX          14.2    15.4    13.3
RAYS            12.1    13.9    13.9
METS             7.2     9.5     9.5
BREWERS          8.2     9.8     7.1
WHITESOX         4.8     6.3     5.0
PHILLIES         3.0     4.2     3.5
DIAMONDBACKS     4.5     5.7     4.3
TWINS            4.7     6.5     4.6
DODGERS          1.6     3.0     1.8
YANKEES           -      0.5     0.5
CARDINALS        0.1     0.4     0.9
MARLINS          0.3     0.5     0.3
TIGERS            -      0.1     0.1
ATHLETICS         -      0.1     0.1
BRAVES            -      0.1     0.1
BLUEJAYS          -      0.2     0.1
REDS              -      0.2     0.1
ROCKIES           -      0.7     0.4
RANGERS           -      0.1     0.1
ASTROS            -      0.3     0.1
PADRES            -      0.1     0.1
ORIOLES           -      0.1     0.1
PIRATES           -      0.1     0.1
GIANTS            -      0.1     0.1
ROYALS            -      0.1     0.1
INDIANS           -      0.1     0.1
NATIONALS         -      0.1     0.1
MARINERS          Expired at 0.0

The Rays, a 200:1 choice to win the World Series back in March, are now down to a 7:1 or 8:1 pick. Even though Tampa Bay has the best record in the majors (while competing in perhaps the toughest division in baseball), the betting public ranks the club fourth as far as its chances of winning it all. Division rival Boston, the Angels, and Cubs are all thought to have a better shot at being crowned World Champs.

Who do you like and why?

Comments

The Red Sox still scare me cause I think they still have the skills and tools to dominate even though they haven't yet this season. Angels are overrated, benefiting from playing in a crappy division. The Cubs can hit all the way through the lineup and have decent starters and closers (middle relief is the only weak spot--and even that's not too bad).

1. Cubs
2. BoSox
3. LAAA
4. TB

Posted by: Matt K at September 2, 2008 10:07 AM

I still think Boston has the best team, with the best run differential in the best league despite a rash of injuries. My sense is that they have been extremely conservative with the disabled list of late, believing (properly) that getting healthy is more important than winning 98 games. If Beckett, Drew, Lowell, Casey, and Lugo are ready to go in the next couple of weeks, as expected, they will be primed to repeat.

Of course, this means I would put their odds at 18-20% at best.

Still, it would be great to see a matchup of non-traditional teams--Rays or Twins vs. Brewers or Cubs. That would be heaven.

Posted by: Mark Armour at September 2, 2008 10:11 AM

As a Sox fan, I appreciate their conservative use of the DL, and heartily endorse leaving Lugo on there for the remainder of the season (you can never be too careful).

Posted by: Matt at September 2, 2008 10:25 AM

If Lugo is ready I suspect he would take Cora's job, wouldn't he? Francona has done a nice job with Crisp and Ellsbury in the outfield, I suspect he could likewise with Lugo and Lowrie.

Back to the subject at hand, I want to retract one thing. Although I think the Red Sox are the best team, and would be favored if they matched up with the Cubs, I think the Cubs would have a better betting line because their path to the World Series would be a bit easier. Not very easy mind you, but enough that it would change the math.

Posted by: Mark Armour at September 2, 2008 10:44 AM

I think Matt echoes the sentiments of all Sox fans regarding Lugo and his playing time, or hopefully his continual lack of it.
Their use of the DL and the over riding caution they show to be healthy for the playoff run is to be admired. They'll get the 95 or so wins to qualify and they are really well constructed for a short series. Beckett will be healthy, so they have 3 good starters and the woeful middle relief issues disappear as starters 4 and 5 move to the pen to help out.
Youk, Drew, Lowell and Casey will be healthy and now instead of having 8 starters and a bunch of role players, they've got essential 12-13 guys who are accustomed to starting...in a variety of postitions. It offers them flexibility and experience in areas that other clubs don't have.

Posted by: Hugh Jorgan at September 2, 2008 9:39 PM